Readers of my diaries probably know that I consider the bond market to be one of the most solid indicators of what lies ahead for the economy. In fact, the stock market is a leading economic indicator, and the bond market leads even that.
In 2006 and 2007 the bond market went into a mild inversion, i.e., interest rates on short term bonds were higher than rates on long term bonds. This is a historically accurate indication of recessions about 12 months further out. It does appear that we have dutifully slipped into recession in the early part of 2008 (although we may not "know" it officially until the final revisions to economic numbers is made official - several years from now!)

In the last couple a days a lengthy brief by Aaron Krowne, famous for the "Mortgage Broker Implode-O-Meter", titled Debate Over: It's Hyperinflation (and US Economic Collapse) has gotten extensive attention. The title is pretty self-explanatory. Krowne claims that the Fed's recent negative interest rate policy is going to provoke hyperinflation:

the one thing that is different this time; the only thing on the planet that could truly be the cause of the EXTREME price action in oil, are the actions of the Fed. In specific I mean holding interest rates at the ungodly low rate of 2% -- below even their own doctored inflation reading (which is around 4%); and hell, below even their core inflation reading, which is a percent lower or so.

Individual economic predictions are usually pretty useless, and predictions of catastrophe are as ubiquitous as rednecks at a NASCAR race. Therefore when I see general doom-and-gloom predictions for the economy I tend to ignore them.

On the other hand, there is a tipping point. When both official and private sources all over the world that aren't known for being alarmist start screaming "fire!" then it is time to pay attention.

Before I make a few personal comments let me quote my sources.

IMF:

The International Monetary Fund today warned authorities worldwide to "think the unthinkable" in planning to cope with a mounting crisis in the global financial system.

In the news and the blogs there have been a series of reports, valid or not, that the world is looking at a global economic downturn of significant proportions. While this maybe true or not, one thing to note is more Americans control their own retirement accounts and are subject to choice and market conditions. Are we setting up an economy of fear? Riding the wave of emotional sentiment when your retirement future is bouncing on a VIX 100 foot wave fear and uncertainty sea is no way to build a secure social safety net.

Some interesting stuff happening in the manufacturing sector. The US Dollar, despite the President's claim today that he wants a strong currency, continues to drop. Rising material costs, be it ore or petroleum, has had some unintended consequences. I noted on Daily Kos last week, that many businesses are starting to take a second look at the US given the rise in transportation costs.

Domestic steel looking not too shabby

There is a fierce debate going on at across a number of economic and financial blogs about the most recent price spikei in oil. After years of seemingly orderly increase, the price of oil took off dramatically in February 2007 and even moreso in early 2008, rising from $55 a barrel only 16 months ago to $140 a barrel now -- a percentage equivalent to the move from $20+ a barrel to $55 a barrel in the entire decade from 1997 to 2007.
Clearly, something happened in the last year and a half to cause the price of oil to go "parabolic" -- the straight to the heavens chart that we have seen before in the 1920s stock market and the Nasdaq tech bubble.

Hocus Pocus

Things are not always as they seem.

When I worked as a school teacher, I never saw, touched, felt or smelled funds that were supposedly taken from me for Social Security or income taxes. The same was true for the school janitor and the superintendent of Schools. Maybe each of us had the money for an imaginary instant in the mind of some bookkeeper, but where did the money come from? Maybe where the money came from is even more important than who paid it. Obviously it came from the taxpayers in our school district.

It sure is great being a banker these days.

Let's take the example of Countrywide Financial.
Today both California and Illinois opened lawsuits against Countrywide for "using misleading advertising and other unfair business practices to trick borrowers into taking on risky home loans they didn't fully understand". Also today, Washington State is moving to pull Countrywide's licenses after it found "evidence of predatory practices aimed at minorities".
This is after a year in which Countrywide stock has dropped from nearly 40 to just 4.58.

By now readers of my blog posts know that I tend to have a "muddle-through" point of view. Times may be good, or times may be bad, but rarely does Armageddon happen. In the last 100 years, it only happened 1 time -- in the 1929-39 Great Depression. There may have been inflation, there may have been recessions, but always people adapted and an equilibrium was struck, and growth resumed.
Even World Wars 1 and 2 (and 2 had a lot to do with the oppressive settlement of 1) occurred after 100 years of near universal international peace in Europe.

Over the last 25+ years the entire globe has been undergoing a disinflationary period of growth. Interest rates have declined; consumers in advanced countries who haven't made much progress in wages could at least refinance their debt, or perhaps cash in the value of booming stock or real estate assets.
All of that appears to be coming to an end.