Calculated Risk

ICE: Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in February

From ICE (formerly Black Knight): ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Delinquencies Improve and Foreclosures Drop as Prepayments Rise Modestly
• The national delinquency rate eased to 3.34% in February, down 4 basis points (bps) from the month before and 11 bps lower than in February 2023

• While the number of borrowers one payment behind rose modestly by 10K, those 60 days late as well as those 90 or more days past due both fell to their lowest levels in three months

• Delinquency inflows rose 6.5% from January’s eight-month low, while rolls to later stages continued their recent improvement

• Serious delinquencies (loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure) are down 103K (-18%) year over year, with the population now standing at 459K

• Representing 5.3% of serious delinquencies, February’s 25K foreclosure starts is the second lowest in the last twelve months

The number of loans in active foreclosure fell -7K to 211K, remaining 25% (-72K) below pre-pandemic levels

• 6K foreclosure sales were completed nationally in February, a 9% decrease from the previous month and the second lowest level in the trailing 12-month period

• Prepayment activity rose 3 bps in February to a level not seen since October, as a brief dip in rates heading into the month provided a modest increase in refinance incentive
emphasis added
Note: that last column below is for the same month in 2019 to show the change from pre-pandemic levels.

ICE: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process   Feb
2024Jan
2024Feb
2023Feb
2019 Delinquent3.34%3.38%3.45%3.89% In Foreclosure0.40%0.41%0.46%0.51% Number of properties: Number of properties
that are delinquent,
but not in foreclosure:1,782,0001,803,0001,811,0002,019,000 Number of properties
in foreclosure
pre-sale inventory:211,000219,000240,000264,000 Total Properties1,993,0002,022,0002,050,0002,284,000

Q1 GDP Tracking: Around 2%

From BofA:
Since our update last week, 1Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to 2.2% q/q saar. 4Q tracking remained at 3.5% q/q saar. [Mar 22nd estimate]
emphasis added
From Goldman:
We boosted our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.9% (qoq ar). Our Q1 domestic final sales growth forecast now stands at +2.2% (qoq ar). [Mar 21st estimate]
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 2.1 percent on March 19, down from 2.3 percent from March 14. [March 19th estimate]

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.4% Year-over-year

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 16 March
U.S. hotel performance increased from the previous week but showed continued declines year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 16 March.

10-16 March 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023):

Occupancy: 66.5% (-1.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.21 (-2.1%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.51 (-3.5%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2023.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking slightly below last year, and below the median rate for the period 2000 through 2023 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate will move mostly sideways seasonally until the summer travel season.

Realtor.com Reports Active Inventory UP 23.8% YoY; New Listings up 17.8% YoY

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 14.8% YoY, but still down almost 40% compared to February 2019. 
 Now - on a weekly basis - inventory is up 23.8% YoY.

Realtor.com has monthly and weekly data on the existing home market. Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends View—Data Week Ending March 16, 2024
Active inventory increased, with for-sale homes 23.8% above year-ago levels. For a 19th straight week, active listings registered above the prior year’s level, which means that today’s home shoppers can consider more options for existing homes for sale. However, the number of homes on the market is still down nearly 40% compared with what was typical in 2017 to 2019, and the gain in inventory, particularly in the more affordable under-$350,000 price category, was primarily focused in the South last month. Nonetheless, in the first few weeks of March, inventory growth has also accelerated in the Midwest and West, while inventory in the Northeast remains similar to the previous year’s.

New listings–a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale–were up this week, by 17.8% from one year ago. For the 21st consecutive week, newly listed homes have surpassed year-ago levels. This rate of growth is also increasing, with newly listed homes growing 17.8% compared with last year, while the previous week’s growth rate was 15.8%. This is the highest year-over-year growth rate in new listings seen since May 2021, but the base of inventory for this growth remains small.
Realtor YoY Active ListingsHere is a graph of the year-over-year change in inventory according to realtor.com

Inventory was up year-over-year for the 19th consecutive week following 20 consecutive weeks with a YoY decrease in inventory.  
Inventory is still historically very low.
Although new listings remain below typical pre-pandemic levels, new listings are now up YoY for the 21st consecutive week.

BofA "Should policy be set on OER if nobody pays it?"

A brief excerpt from a BofA research note.

BofA economists ask: Should policy be set on OER if nobody pays it?
One main factor behind sticky services inflation in the US has been the behavior of owners’ equivalent rent (OER), which measures the change in the cost of owner occupied housing. ... The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) estimates OER by using actual rents as a proxy. Rents, which initially plunged during the pandemic, rebounded sharply for several reasons. These include a shift in demand from urban to rural locations where inventory was scarce, an increased desire to live alone, and a need for increased space to accommodate work-from-home arrangements.

That being said, we ask the following provocative question: should monetary policy be based on a price that two out of three households are not paying. ... The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HIPC) [that] was created to mimic how inflation is estimated in Europe, which excludes OER from its price index due to disagreement over how to estimate owner-occupied housing costs. While headline CPI inflation was up 3.2% y/y through February and headline PCE inflation was up 2.4% through January (February data has not been released yet), where was HICP inflation? HICP inflation was up only 2.2%.

Where would the Fed’s confidence to cut be if it saw inflation at 2.2%? We think most certainly higher.
I've written extensively about the surge in household formation during the pandemic (mostly due to work from home), how and why asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, and why I think OER should mostly be ignored right now by the Fed (monetary policy cannot impact the past).

With the February CPI report, I noted: "Rent and Owner's equivalent rent are still very high, and if we exclude rent, median CPI would be around 1.8% year-over-year." Core CPI ex-shelter was up 2.2% YoY in February, unchanged from 2.2% in January.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.38 million SAAR in February; Median Prices Down 7.1 From Peak (NSA)

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.38 million SAAR in February

Excerpt:
Sales Year-over-Year and Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA)

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2023 and 2024.

Existing Home Sales Year-over-yearSales declined 3.3% year-over-year compared to February 2023. This was the thirtieth consecutive month with sales down year-over-year. Be careful with February sales - the seasonal factor plays a role in boosting sales.
There is much more in the article.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.38 million SAAR in February

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Vaulted 9.5% in February, Largest Monthly Increase in a Year
Existing-home sales climbed in February, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales jumped in the West, South and Midwest, and were unchanged in the Northeast. Year-over-year, sales declined in all regions.

Total existing-home sales– completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – bounced 9.5% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.38 million in February. Year-over-year, sales slid 3.3% (down from 4.53 million in February 2023).
...
Total housing inventory registered at the end of February was 1.07 million units, up 5.9% from January and 10.3% from one year ago (970,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from 3.0 months in January but up from 2.6 months in February 2023.
emphasis added
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in February (4.38 million SAAR) were up 9.5% from the previous month and were 3.3% below the February 2023 sales rate.
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home InventoryAccording to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.07 million in February from 1.01 million the previous month.
Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory was up 10.3% year-over-year (blue) in February compared to February 2023.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 2.9 months in February from 3.0 months the previous month.

This was above the consensus forecast (but at Tom Lawler's estimate). I'll have more later. 

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 210,000

The DOL reported:
In the week ending March 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 3,000 from 209,000 to 212,000. The 4-week moving average was 211,250, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 750 from 208,000 to 208,750.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 211,250.

The previous week was revised up.

Weekly claims were close to the consensus forecast.

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 212 thousand initial claims, up from 209 thousand last week.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for March. The consensus is for a reading of -2.5, down from 5.2.

• At 10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for February from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.94 million SAAR, down from 4.00 million. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.40 million SAAR for February (well above consensus).

FOMC Projections and Press Conference

Statement here.

Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET.

Here are the projections.  Since the last projections were released, the economy has performed close to FOMC expectations.
In December, the FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target level for the federal funds rate was at 4.675% at the end of 2024. The FOMC participants’ midpoint of the target range is now at 4.675% at the end of 2024.  
Market participants expects the target range to be between 4.5% and 4.75% at the end of 2024.

Early estimates for Q1 GDP are around 2% annualized, and the FOMC projections for year-over-year growth in Q4 2024 were revised up.
GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1 Projection Date202420252026 Mar 20242.0 to 2.41.9 to 2.31.8 to 2.1Dec 20231.2 to 1.71.5 to 2.01.8 to 2.0 1 Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 3.9% in February and the projections for Q4 2024 were down slightly.
Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2 Projection Date202420252026 Mar 20243.9 to 4.13.9 to 4.23.9 to 4.3Dec 20234.0 to 4.24.0 to 4.23.9 to 4.3 2 Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of January 2024, PCE inflation increased 2.4 percent year-over-year (YoY).  The projections for PCE inflation were revised up slightly.
Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1 Projection Date202420252026 Mar 20242.3 to 2.72.1 to 2.22.0 to 2.1Dec 20232.2 to 2.52.0 to 2.22.0
PCE core inflation increased 2.8 percent YoY in January.  The projections for core PCE inflation were revised up slightly.  
Over the last 6 months, the PCE Price Index increase 2.5% annualized, the core PCE price index increased at a 2.5% annual rate.   However, core PCE minus Housing increased at a 1.8% annualized rate suggesting that 2024 projections are too high.
Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1 Projection Date202420252026 Mar 20242.5 to 2.82.1 to 2.32.0 to 2.1Dec 20232.4 to 2.72.0 to 2.22.0 to 2.1

FOMC Statement: No Change to Policy

FOMC Statement:
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; Loretta J. Mester; and Christopher J. Waller.
emphasis added

AIA: "Moderation in the Slowdown in Business Conditions at Architecture Firms"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 19th Consecutive Month

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: AIA/Deltek ABI Reports Moderation in the Slowdown in Business Conditions at Architecture Firms in February
Architecture firm billings continued to decline in February, with an AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 49.5 for the month. However, February’s score marks the most modest easing in billings since July 2023 and suggests that the recent slowdown may be receding.

“There are indicators this month that business conditions at firms may finally begin to pick up in the coming months. Inquiries into new projects grew at their fastest pace since November, and the value of newly signed design contracts increased at their fastest pace since last summer,” said Kermit Baker, PhD, AIA Chief Economist." Given the moderation of inflation for construction costs and prospects for lower interest rates in the coming months, there are positive signs for future growth.”

The Midwest as a region is still reporting billings growth, despite business conditions remaining weak across the country in February. Firms located in the Midwest reported growth for the last three months, and for four of the last five months.

The ABI score is a leading economic indicator of construction activity, providing an approximately nine-to-twelve-month glimpse into the future of nonresidential construction spending activity. The score is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms that measures the change in the number of services provided to clients.
emphasis added
• Northeast (44.0); Midwest (50.8); South (47.7); West (47.2)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (46.1); institutional (50.7); mixed practice (firms that do not have at least half of their billings in any one other category) (47.1); multifamily residential (44.9)

AIA Architecture Billing Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 49.5 in February, up from 46.2 in January.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment in 2024.
Note that multi-family billing turned down in August 2022 and has been negative for nineteen consecutive months (with revisions).   This suggests we will see a further weakness in multi-family starts.

MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 1.6 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending March 15, 2024.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent compared with the previous week and was 14 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased last week as incoming data showed inflation was still hotter than expected, which stoked concerns about the timing and extent to which the Fed might be able to reduce the fed funds rates this year. After three weeks of declines, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.97 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Mortgage applications continued to show sensitivity to rate movements, and both purchase and refinance activity decreased over the week. With housing supply low and prices high, the average loan size for purchase applications increased to the highest level since May 2022.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) increased to 6.97 percent from 6.84 percent, with points decreasing to 0.64 from 0.65 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added
Mortgage Purchase IndexClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 14% year-over-year unadjusted.  
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is up slightly from the lows in late October 2023, and below the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

Mortgage Refinance IndexThe second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022, and has mostly flatlined since then.

Wednesday: FOMC Statement

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for February (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Projections. This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with updated economic projections.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

California February Existing Home Sales increase 1.3% YoY, Prices up 9.7% YoY

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California February Existing Home Sales increase 1.3% YoY, Prices up 9.7% YoY

A brief excerpt:
February’s sales pace jumped 12.8 percent higher from the revised 257,040 homes sold in January and rose 1.3 percent from a year ago, when a revised 286,290 homes were sold on an annualized basis.
...
The statewide median price recorded a strong year-over-year gain in February, gaining 9.7 percent from $735,300 in February 2023 to $806,490 in February 2024.

Single Family Starts Up 35% Year-over-year in February; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Single Family Starts Up 35% Year-over-year in February; Multi-Family Starts Down Sharply

A brief excerpt:
Total housing starts in February were above expectations and starts in December and January were revised up.

Last month, I noted that permits held up better than starts in January, and that housing starts were impacted by the severe weather in January. For February, permits and starts were at about the same level.

The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2023 (blue) and 2024 (red).

Starts 2022 vs 2023Total starts were up 5.9% in February compared to February 2023.

Starts were up year-over-year for the third consecutive month, after being down year-over-year for 16 of the previous 18 months.

Housing Starts Increased to 1.521 million Annual Rate in February

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions
Housing Starts:
Privately‐owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,521,000. This is 10.7 percent above the revised January estimate of 1,374,000 and is 5.9 percent above the February 2023 rate of 1,436,000. Single‐family housing starts in February were at a rate of 1,129,000; this is 11.6 percent above the revised January figure of 1,012,000. The February rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 377,000.

Building Permits:
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,518,000. This is 1.9 percent above the revised January rate of 1,489,000 and is 2.4 percent above the February 2023 rate of 1,482,000. Single‐family authorizations in February were at a rate of 1,031,000; this is 1.0 percent above the revised January figure of 1,021,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 429,000 in February.
emphasis added
Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsClick on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) increased in February compared to January.   Multi-family starts were down 34.8% year-over-year in February.

Single-family starts (red) increased in February and were up 35.2% year-over-year.

Multi Housing Starts and Single Family Housing StartsThe second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery - and the recent collapse and recovery in single-family starts.

Total housing starts in February were above expectations and starts in December and January were revised up.

I'll have more later …

"The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: "The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates"

A brief excerpt:
Here is new working paper from Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) staff Ross M. Batzer Jonah R. Coste William M. Doerner Michael J. Seiler quantifying the impact of the “lock-in effect”: The Lock-In Effect of Rising Mortgage Rates

And here is their conclusion:
This paper finds that for every percentage point that market mortgage rates exceed the origination interest rate, the probability of sale is decreased by 18.1%. This mortgage rate lock-in led to a 57% reduction in home sales with fixed-rate mortgages in 2023Q4 and prevented 1.33 million sales between 2022Q2 and 2023Q4. The supply reduction increased home prices by 5.7%, outweighing the direct impact of elevated rates, which decreased prices by 3.3%. These findings underscore how mortgage rate lock-in restricts mobility, results in people not living in homes they would prefer, inflates prices, and worsens affordability.
emphasis added
There is much more in the article.

Tuesday: Housing Starts

Mortgage Rates From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Inch to March Highs
Rates marched higher to the highest levels in March today, but most lenders are only microscopically worse off than Friday afternoon. In the slightly bigger picture rates have moved up roughly a quarter of a percent in just over a week and that's a relatively quick move.
...
We already know the Fed will not be cutting rates. We don't know how they'll adjust their rate outlook for the rest of the year. [30 year fixed 7.11%]
emphasis added
Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Housing Starts for February. The consensus is for 1.435 million SAAR, up from 1.331 million SAAR.

MBA Survey: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Holds Steady at 0.22% in February

From the MBA: Share of Mortgage Loans in Forbearance Holds Steady at 0.22% in February
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) monthly Loan Monitoring Survey revealed that the total number of loans now in forbearance remained unchanged at 0.22% as of February 29, 2024. According to MBA’s estimate, 110,000 homeowners are in forbearance plans. Mortgage servicers have provided forbearance to approximately 8.1 million borrowers since March 2020.

In February 2024, the share of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac loans in forbearance declined 1 basis point to 0.12%. Ginnie Mae loans in forbearance increased by 1 basis point to 0.40%, and the forbearance share for portfolio loans and private-label securities (PLS) increased 1 basis point to 0.29%.

“The performance of servicing portfolios and loan workouts improved in February, as borrowers benefitted from tax refunds, the extra day in the month to submit their payments, and continued resilience in the job market,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Only around 110,000 loans nationwide remain in a forbearance plan, with little movement this month. The pandemic’s impact has waned, with only 16 percent of borrowers in forbearance because of COVID-19, compared to 72 percent for temporary personal hardships and 12 percent for natural disasters.”
emphasis added
At the end of February, there were about 110,000 homeowners in forbearance plans.

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