Since the OPEC production cuts are the main factor underpinning oil prices, and hence the ongoing increases in US drilling, we'll start by taking a quick look at OPEC May Oil Market Report (covering April OPEC & global data), which was released on Thursday of last week.
The Consumer Price Index for April reversed last month's course and rose by 0.2%. Inflation increases were across the board. Food rose 0.2%, energy 1.1% and all other items together increased 0.1%. Shelter continues on it's tear with a 0.3% monthly increase. Natural gas had a huge monthly increase of 2.2%. Fresh vegetables had the largest monthly jump since February 2011, an increase of 5.1%.
The April unemployment report on the surface looks really good because the unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since May 2007. Yet the cause of the low rate for the month is a mixed bag. Labor participation rates also remain low. On the other hand, an alternative measure of the unemployment rate, U-6, is the lowest it has been since November 2007.
I have come to the conclusion that capitalism is successful primarily because it can impose the majority of the costs associated with its economic activities on outside parties and on the environment. In other words, capitalists make profits because their costs are externalized and born by others. In the US, society and the environment have to pick up the tab produced by capitalist activity.
The first quarter GDP initial estimate is a pathetically weak 0.7%. While the usual suspects, changes in private inventories, imports and government spending all contracted, the real drama is in the very weak consumer spending growth. Consumer spending is most of GDP and only gained a paltry 0.3% for Q1.
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