April 2008

A note on today's CPI

You probably heard that the "headline" (i.e., including food and energy) CPI number today was +.03. You may have scratched your head, wondering what planet these guys are on.
Well, they were on the "seasonally adjusted" planet. Generally speaking, inflation runs hotter in the first part of the year, and cools down dramatically towards the end of the year.

So, for the best year over year comparisons, turn to the non-seasonally adjusted CPI number. And that number today was +.09. Much closer to our actual experience, no?

And yet, as the below table (from the Bureau of Labor Statistics) shows, inflation so far this year is running on the non-seasonally adjusted basis, at exactly the same clip as last year: +1.7 for the first quarter. Here's the table:

Jan 07 0.3
0.5
0.9
0.6
0.6
0.2
0.0
-0.2
0.3
0.2
0.6
-0.1
Jan 08 0.5
0.3
0.9

The year over year numbers for the last 6 months including today look like this:

Oct 07 3.5

What is a Populist?

Submitted by on

All of a sudden, Populism has become a popular term. But like so many political labels representing some sort of philosophy, the word is already being co-opted to mean something else.

From Progressives to Corporate representatives, everyone wants to be a Populist these days. Now John McCain is supposedly touting a Populist Message....in the form of corporate tax cuts.

Let's be clear here, more giveaways to the super rich and multinational corporations is Corporate Corrupt and most assuredly not addressing the needs of working America.

Then, we have those claiming Barack Obama is a Populist.

Wholesale Inflation Surges 1.1% in March

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USA Today reports:

The Labor Department reported Tuesday that wholesale prices rose 1.1% last month. That was the second biggest increase in the past 33 years. Analysts had been expecting a much more moderate 0.4% rise in wholesale prices.

Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, was more moderate last month, rising just 0.2%, down from a worrisome 0.5% rise in February.

The Triangulation of Class War

Submitted by on

A popular topic of discussion in my family is, "Why do poor and lower middle class people keep voting for the party of the rich? Why don't they vote in their own best economic interests?"

None of our guesses ever seemed to answer the question. It's an important question to answer because democracy only functions correctly if the public votes in their own best interests.

I've done plenty of research into the topic, including reading the excellent book, What's the Matter with Kansas. It was a great read and I highly recommend it.
However, it still failed to answer my question. Thomas Frank explained why religious people have been captured by the Republican Party and the "cultural war", but he was still somewhat vague about why so many poor and lower middle class people who aren't religious vote Republican.

Manufacturing Forum - Obama and Clinton

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Today a manufacturing forum was held with both Presidential candidates for the Democratic primary.

What is amazing is this seemingly was not broadcast on CNN, or on CSPAN. Trade and manufacturing policy area is critical to the US economy, so not covering such a forum is ....well, par for the course? Anything important is obscured, anything divisive is sure to be played over and over.

Guess who didn't even bother to show up? John McCain.

Of course the bitter tit for tat rhetoric is ongoing, with Obama in retaliation commenting others surrounding Hillary support bad trade deals which ignores Hillary's position statements or the lack of his own. Yet again, policy positions are obscured.

In my opinion, there are only two things that matter:

  1. The actual policy proposals and positions

DHS CIS Circumvents Congress - Extends F-1 OPT

Tuesday April 8, DHS CIS (Citizenship and Immigration Services) issued a Final Interim Rule to extend F-1 foreign student OPT time limits to 29 months without public comment and without Congressional review. Public comment was requested, after enactment, as a slap in the face. CIS has grown accustomed to re-writing immigration law without due process - last year an additional 20,000 H-1B visas were handed out in this manner.

Here is my comment in the Federal Register.

DHS CIS F-1 OPT Final Interim Rule (.pdf)

April 9, 2008

Dana Rothrock comments on:

DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY
8 CFR Part 214

DHS NO. ICEB-2008-0002

ICE NO. 2124-08 RIN 1653-AA56

AGENCY: U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services; DHS.

ACTION: Interim final rule with request for comments.

Obama Said What?

Submitted by on

Normally I try to stay away from the daily tit for tat of the Democratic primary but this latest buffoonery needs a comment.

Two days ago Obama said:

You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing's replaced them," Obama said. "And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it's not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations,

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