February 2012

Greece Pushed Further into Economic Contraction by New Bail Out

greekdominoesYet another deal, yet more austerity. The Financial Times has the most detailed terms of the latest Greek bail out. We've dug out some details as well.

  • Bail out is €130 billion
  • Greek bondholders hair cut is now voluntary
  • If Greece sovereign debt holders volunteer to take a hair cut, it's up from 50% to 53.5%
  • Greece gets to go into more debt with lowered interest rates
  • Greek is supposed to get their debt to GDP ratio to 120.5% by 2020
  • The ECB is going to distribute profits on €40 billion of Greek bond holdings
  • More austerity cuts of 5% GDP by 2014
  • More privatization of €19 billion by 2015

Here's the money shot. Greece's GDP is expected to shrink by 17% when comparing economic output from 2009 to 2013. That is not a recession. Greece is in a depression.

Gez, why not just invade, rampage and pillage the nation? Must all war be economic these days?

There was a leaked internal document which says Greece will never get out of this debt and shrinking GDP means....more bail outs.

National Mortgage Settlement is a Big Fat Pig in a Poke

pigpokeThere are new revelations on the 50 state mortgage fraud settlement. From The Financial Times:

A clause in the provisional agreement – which has not been made public – allows the banks to count future loan modifications made under a 2009 foreclosure-prevention initiative towards their restructuring obligations for the new settlement, according to people familiar with the matter.

The existing $30bn initiative, the Home Affordable Modification Programme (Hamp), provides taxpayer funds as an incentive to banks, third party investors and troubled borrowers to arrange loan modifications.

The settlement is estimated to be $40 billion. The fines are only $5 billion of this, which implies U.S. taxpayers are on the hook, not the banks, for $30 billion. So instead of getting any justice that using people's homes, their shelter and main life investment as a gambling chip and paper chase game is wrong, once again we get to pay for financial folly while banks pocket the cash.

Naked Capitalism has put up a top 12 list of things wrong with the foreclosure fraud settlement. Here's reason #1:

No Quantitative Easing For You

money gamblingSorry speculative traders in commodities, the Fed actually did a just say no on more quantitative easing. The FOMC meeting minutes for January 24-25th were released last week and some speculative commodities traders still seem to be in denial land.

The FOMC money quote:

The Committee also stated that it is prepared to adjust the size and composition of its securities holdings as appropriate to promote a stronger economic recovery in a context of price stability. A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions--including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee's objective--could warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long. Other members indicated that such policy action could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its mandate-consistent rate of 2 percent over the medium run. In contrast, one member judged that maintaining the current degree of policy accommodation beyond the near term would likely be inappropriate; that member anticipated that a preemptive tightening of monetary policy would be necessary before the end of 2014 to keep inflation close to 2 percent.

Saturday Reads Around the Internets - Big Brother Strikes Again

shocknews Welcome to the weekly roundup of great articles, facts and figures. These are the weekly finds that made our eyes pop.

 

Target Knows You're Pregnant Before You've Told Anyone

The never ending invasion into our privacy knows no bounds. We just saw Google ignoring browser privacy settings and even when you delete cookies, flash cookies and even use proxy servers, you're being tracked. For those who have strong boundaries this is just irritating as hell. It's also stupid in terms of statistics. One percent, which is the typical dismissed exception of these profiling algorithms, equates to 3 million people in the United States.

Residential New Construction Housing Starts Increase 1.5% for January 2012

The January 2012 Residential construction report showed Housing starts increased 1.5% from December's revised 689,000, to a level of 699,000. December housing starts were revised significantly, from 657,000 to 689,000. January 2012 is now 9.9% above January 2011's 636,000 housing starts. Housing starts increase was due to apartments, 5 units or more of one building structure, which increased 14.4% in one month.

Don't Let the Big Fat Zero for January 2012 Industrial Production Fool You

The Federal Reserve's Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization report, G.17, shows zero change in industrial production for January 2012. The culprit was utilities and the Fed blames the weather. Warming temperatures in winter cause home energy production to drop beyond their typical output levels. The big fat industrial production zero hides some very promising changes.

Retail Sales Increase 0.4% for January 2012

January 2012 Retail Sales increased 0.4%. Minus autos & parts, retail sales increased 0.7%. December retail sales were revised down from 0.1% to 0%, or no change from the previous month. Retail sales are up 5.8% from the same time last year. Retail sales are reported by dollars, not by volume, so dropping prices often reports as a decline in sales.

 

Delightful News Out of Greece This Morning (for bankers)

Traders in New York this morning were greeted with this happy headline from The Wall Street Journal:

US Stock Futures Higher; Buoyed by Greece

greece austerity protestYes indeed, the Dow Jones index is set to open at least 70 points higher because the Greek parliament approved the additional austerity measures demanded by the European Union, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. In exchange for €130 million in a second bailout by the “Troika”, as the three lending institutions are called, Greece will have to cut its minimum wage by 22% and the government will have to lay off an additional 150,000 workers. This is in a country that is in its fifth year of recession, with an official unemployment rate of 21%. Business has virtually collapsed, with many private sector companies on the verge of bankruptcy. The health system is so starved for funds that a bacteria resistant to all medicines is raging through hospitals, forcing the chronically ill to decide whether to even risk seeking professional care. Poverty is reaching extreme levels and is well-entrenched among what used to be the middle class. Children are sent to school so hungry that they are fainting in the classrooms. As of last night, the crowds that were storming through Athens and other large cities no longer were content to throw rocks at the police; Molotov cocktails were used to set at least forty buildings in Athens on fire. The police in Athens, facing crowds estimated from 80,000 to 100,000 people, were forced off Syntagma Square, and appeared to have run out of tear gas. Journalists described the business center of Athens as a war zone. The country is slipping into social disorder, if not anarchy. But stock markets in Europe were up today on the happy news that the Greek parliament approved the additional austerity measures.

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