October 2012

Tax Facts Show Lower Personal Income Taxes Will Not Create Jobs

taxformsWe've noticed a hell of a lot of political B.S. baffle going on, in particular on business taxes. What happens is politicians conflate small business taxes with the individual income tax and that is due in part to the actual tax code.

The GOP typical claim is a lower top personal income tax rate will allow businesses to hire more people. That is really a lie. Business profits can enable more hiring, tax refunds for hiring and retaining employees can incentivize new jobs, but the personal income tax rates for those who own businesses has negligible effect.

One thing that gets lost in the rancor are business tax deductions. An employee's salary and most benefits are a business deduction. The business owner would not pay taxes on the costs of hiring a new employee beyond the payroll taxes associated with hiring, about 6.2% of salary. The most important element to hiring is demand for goods and services provided by the business, not taxes.

There are four most common business entities in the United States. Corporations, partnerships, S-corporations and sole proprietorships. Partnerships are primarily two types, a limited liability partnership (LLP) or a limited liability company (LLC). There are also other types of businesses, such as RICs, which are glorified investment vehicles with capital gains tax pass through. S-corporations also allow pass through taxes, although not as lenient as partnerships. Below is a graph of number of these firms by type, who had at least one paid employee during part of 2009.

 

type of business 2009

 

The Weirdness in Initial Unemployment Claims 30k Drop for the Week ending on October 6th, 2012

The DOL reported Initial weekly unemployment claims for the week ending on October 6th, 2012 were 339,000, a 30,000 drop from the previous week of 369,000. From pundits to politicians, people are freaking out for this makes initial claims the lowest level since February 16th, 2008.

 

Job JOLTS - There 3.5 People Looking for a Job for each Position Available in August 2012

The BLS JOLTS report, or Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey describes the pathetic job market. Once again, little has changed, the never ending drum beat and mantra of our dead in the water labor market never ceases. The August 2012 statistics show there were 3.52 official unemployed persons for every position available*.

A Look at September's Payrolls from the Employment Report

The BLS unemployment report shows total nonfarm payroll jobs gained were 114,000 for September 2012 and the unemployment rate dropped to an artificial 7.8%. Some better news was August's payrolls were revised up by 40,000 jobs to 181,000 and July was also revised up by 46,000 jobs to show a gain of 142,000 in nonfarm payrolls. The below graph shows the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls employment.

 

Sunday Morning Comics - The Debate Edition

Brought to you by the Comedians - Thank God this election doesn't address the real issues, otherwise we'd be out of business
Cup O' Joe

 

Good Morning! Rise and Shine! Get that Cup O' Joe...
break out the O.J....hang out with the pooch...time to check out the debate funnies. Both candidates have two minutes to be parodied.

 

The Rumble 2012 - Jon Stewart vs. Bill O'Reilly

 

Exploring the Wild, Weird World of Employment Numbers From Statistical Space

It's like someone pulled the unemployment rate out of a Star Trek transporter, as if America entered a time warp machine and we moved to another dimension through a worm hole. A 0.3 percentage point drop to 7.8% makes no sense when there were only 114,000 jobs added. Captain, can the unemployment rate be right and we really did defy the laws of statistics?

We want to point to something which might in part explain what happened this month with the household survey statistics. That is how long someone holds a job. We don't have monthly statistics on job tenure, yet it could very well be that finally, people are working longer at a job. The never ending Schindler's List attitude towards U.S. workers may have abated. The U.S. has disposable worker syndrome, where people are laid off and fired for no damn good reason at all. It's a fact of the American work life while one has a job one week, there is no guarantee one will have a job the next.

To wit, let's look at another obscure BLS statistic, labor force status flows. This is the number of people flowing from being in the labor force, out of the labor force, employed and unemployed on a monthly basis. Below is a graph of the monthly changes of people who moved into employment from already having a job, not being counted at all, or being part of the official unemployed since 2006.

flows to employment

Manufacturing New Orders Plunge -5.2% for September 2012

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows factory new orders plunged -5.2% for August 2012. This Census statistical release is called Factory Orders by the press and covers both durable and non-durable manufacturing orders, shipments and inventories. This is the largest monthly drop since January 2009, although July showed a 2.6% increase.

ADP Employment Report Shows 162,000 Private Sector Jobs for September 2012

ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report for September 2012. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 162,000 private sector jobs. August 2012 was revised down by 12,000 to 189,000 private payrolls gains. In stark contrast, the BLS reported 103,000 private sector jobs for August 2012.

Never Ending Stupid Bank Tricks

moneyhatBanks are at it again, as usual, and these latest adventures in fictional finance are off the public radar. Maybe the public has lost their outrage and why the latest news is out of earshot. Maybe people are just exhausted, watching absurdity after outrage coming from these financial institutions and the ones who are supposed to watch them. After all, nothing ever changes.

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