– by New Deal democrat Well, I was working on one nerdy long-term historical post this morning, when I decided to check the weekly update on consumer spending from Redbook. And, as you’ll see below, that was the end of that! (I may yet follow up this afternoon. We’ll see.) Last week, Redbook consumer spending was […]

The post Consumer spending has turned red hot – expect no recession in the immediate future appeared first on Angry Bear.

The changing population i terms of older versus younger people or labor will or could have a significant impact on the United States. If you remember, Angry Bear had posted on the issue several times. One of those commentaries was “300 Million and Counting” by Joel Garreau (written in 2006). Replacement rate then was at […]

The post Population Growth and Change appeared first on Angry Bear.

Building up healthcare availability in rural communities is a great idea. As I have shown in previous posts, healthcare in rural areas should be a priority for the United States. Availability is lacking, at a minimum, or is not as local as it should be. Commonwealth Fund examines the issue in rural areas and how […]

The post Rural Health Programs appeared first on Angry Bear.

Trump will not be president forever. And when he goes, Democrats will face a defining choice: exploit the executive machinery he has exposed, or dismantle it. The temptation to exploit it will be enormous—and yielding to that temptation would be a historic mistake. If post-Trump America is to be a post-authoritarian one, it will have […]

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– by New Deal democrat On Friday I wrote about how I have been rethinking the long leading indicators — those that are useful for forecasting the economy 12-24 months out — because while when they are positive, the economy has been as well, but when they have been negative (twice) in the past 15 years, […]

The post The “quick and dirty” forecasting method has been flawless appeared first on Angry Bear.

This commentary shows several supporting links to it. Not a mistake, just different data. A look at Immigration to the United States. I have no problem saying much of the reasoning for a decline is the result of a presidential policy of forced deportation of immigrants. I am going to guess the people leaving consist […]

The post U.S. Population Growth Slows Due to Presidential Policy of Attacking Immigrants and Deporting Them appeared first on Angry Bear.

Apparently, the Trump administration feels secure enough to attack and intimidate organizations that protect the rights of individuals and minorities. It is a direct attempt to silence those who may or do oppose the actions of this administration. “Above everything else, the case against the Southern Poverty Law Center is absurd. Maybe deliberately so. It’s […]

The post Efforts to Intimidate Organizations Supporting Voters and Voting appeared first on Angry Bear.

AB: Unless you were very fortunate, you probably rented an apartment, house, or some place in which to live. Even when we started out, rent took a sizeable amount of “our” income near Chicago. Jan being a paralegal and I finishing up college certainly solved the issue over time. Even then an early on, we […]

The post Housing Rent in the United States appeared first on Angry Bear.

I chose original Medicare because I’d read about all the problems, delays and overcharges in Medicare “Advantage.” So far, I’m happy with that choice, and things don’t seem to be improving with Medicare “Advantage.” Now, it appears the Trump Administration has decided to throw sand in the gears of a government program that works. “Traditional […]

The post If it’s fixed, break it appeared first on Angry Bear.

Weekly Indicators: Points Of Weakness – Just Static? There was another air pocket this week in withholding tax payments, and some weakening in mortgage applications, but the overall tone remains positive, despite the ongoing international chaos emanating from Washington. Once again there was little change this week, and all time frames remained positive. As usual, […]

The post New Deal Democrat’s Weekly Indicators June 13 to June 20 appeared first on Angry Bear.

Supposedly a $300 billion contribution gift is being made to Iran. It is coming from somewhere just like the tax breaks.. Supposedly it is not coming from the United States. Given the past experiences with Trump, it is hard to not believe this is coming from US Taxpayers. What if US taxpayers footing the bill. […]

The post Social Security and Iran appeared first on Angry Bear.

– by New Deal democrat I’ve been writing about the economy, and employing forecasting models, for over 20 years. For the entire duration of the period, there have been portents of DOOOM written about by many others. I have been much more cautious, going on “Recession Watch” only twice since 2008: in 2019 and late 2022. […]

The post Rethinking the long leading indicators appeared first on Angry Bear.

Not that this is any surprise. Employers have always been looking for way to downsize Labor input in products. Whether it is through automation, better throughput due to factory upgrades, or going overseas. A I have pointed out previously, upgrading equipment (nc to cnc) can have a big input to reducing costs. Improve factory layout […]

The post U. S. Labor is Down Sizing appeared first on Angry Bear.

One of the many outrages of this political moment in America is the refusal by the Republican majorities in the House and Senate to assert the powers accorded the legislature. With the right-wing majority on the Roberts court asserting the “unitary executive theory” and presidential immunity, the only remaining threat to Trump’s seizing dictatorial powers […]

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