May 2009

The Populist Pub is Open. Let's Talk Worst Case Scenarios!

 

Petit Julien welcomes you back to the Populist Pub.  

Nearly 18 months into this recession, skepticism is growing about what "recovery" might look like. We hear talk of "green shoots" in an economy that is being remade into another bubble economy, this time based on "government finance". Is it really "stimulating" to the real economy to inject massive amounts of liquidity into the financial system? This unprecedented intervention includes Federal Reserve Credit, Treasury borrowings, agency debt, mortgage-backed securities issued by GSEs, as well as increased involvement of the FDIC. The latest estimates of the size of this bubble is around $14 Trillion which, amazingly, dwarfs the mortgage finance bubble it replaces. The question many analysts ask is whether the FED will be able to withdraw liquidity from the system in the proper amounts and at the right time in order to avert the inevitable inflation when it begins. Ironically, the FED will then find itself in the familiar position of being trapped by the risk of bursting another historic bubble!

GM offshore outsourcing U.S. jobs

Glad you supported GM getting U.S. taxpayer dollars? Want to see GM survive, prattling on how America needs an auto industry?

Instead we get this, GM plans to shift overseas production:

General Motors Corp. will shift more production of vehicles bound for the U.S. market to China, Mexico, South Korea and Japan, but will keep total imports at roughly one-third of all sales here.

In a confidential 12-page presentation to members of Congress, obtained by The Detroit News on Friday, GM said it will boost U.S. sales of vehicles built in those four countries by 98 percent -- or about 365,000 vehicles -- while shrinking production in Canada, Australia and European countries by about 130,000 vehicles.

China cancels America's credit card

The public didn't pay much attention to this comment by Congressman Mark Kirk last week, but they should have.

"It would appear, quietly and with deference and politeness, that China has canceled America's credit card," Kirk told the Committee of 100, a Chinese-American group.

"I'm not sure too many people on Capitol Hill realize that this is now happening," he said.

It's hard to believe when you consider that China has bought over $1 Trillion of our debt, and the largest single-year purchase was 2008.

But now it appears that Mark Kirk knew what he was talking about.

"There will come a time where the lack of Chinese participation may have a significant impact," Kirk said.

Greetings from the Holy Land

A wandering prophet, despised by all, traveling the land and preeching heresy at the gates of towns and villages.

Alas, the land has been plagued this last 25 years with Novus Liberismus.The conquering hordes of the western empire have taken control of the people's minds and souls and devasted our communities.  The land of Moses, Jesus, Mohamad and Atheistus have been swept by NL.

I have risen, on my own behalf, to hold our Alamo and bring power to the people once again.

Friday Movie Night - Slave Economics Edition

 It's Friday Night! Party Time!   Time to relax, put your feet up on the couch, lay back, and watch some detailed videos on economic policy!

One of the things so often overlooked in America today is not too long ago, the ultimate productive labor unit was the enslaved one. Below is a documentary on China labor and two American slave history documentaries with a focus on slavery economics.

 

Santa's Workshop

 

California could be broke by July

It must be summer because Hollywood is putting out sequels again. This time it's the same horror movie that we saw just a few months ago.

Reporting from Sacramento -- California could run out of money as soon as July, the Legislature's chief budget analyst warned Thursday, as a new poll showed voters poised to reject five budget-related measures on the May 19 ballot.

If the propositions do not pass, the state could find itself as much as $23 billion short of the money it needs to pay its bills over the next year, according to a new forecast by Legislative Analyst Mac Taylor. The poll, from the Public Policy Institute of California, found that even as voter interest in the ballot measures rises, all are trailing except the sixth one -- Proposition 1F, which would bar pay hikes for lawmakers in deficit years.
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Are Financial Conglomerates Prolonging the Foreclosure Crisis?

One way people try to avoid the damaging effects of foreclosure is through 'short sale' - a person who can successfully do a 'short sale' can avoid the embarrassment of foreclosure and potentially avoid damage to credit history. A short sale is where the proceeds (net profit) from the sale of real estate would not be enough to pay-off an existing mortgage in which case the lender/mortgage holder has to agree to accept less than full pay-off by approving the sale. Seller/borrower would negotiate with lender to either forgive the remaining balance on the mortgage loan or make some other payment arrangements.

Fannie Mae losing money hand over fist

Most people have forgotten that we nationalized the GSE's last year. Yet the cost of that nationalization is only growing larger and more expensive.

(CNNMoney.com) -- Fannie Mae, the troubled mortgage finance company, reported a first-quarter loss of $23.2 billion on Friday.

The mortgage giant also reported that it submitted a request for $19 billion from the Treasury Department to cover its losses. That followed a request earlier this year for $15.2 billion to cover 2008 losses.

It also said Treasury has doubled its support level to the company to $200 billion, as President Obama had authorized.

A hundred billion here, a hundred billion there. Pretty soon we are talking about real money.

Going forward, the mortgage giant said that it fully expects to ask for more financial support from the federal government.

Everything You Ever Wanted to Know about National Health Plans ….and maybe more - Japan

JAPAN

One thing I thought about when researching Japan's plan was the consideration of tradition and society.  As a professor once said, it is easier to get 100 Japanese to wear the same clothing than it is to get two Americans to decide on which pizza to buy.  In Japan families will help with in hospital nursing.  How willing would American's be to help with nursing?

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