At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

TClick on graph for larger image.

• Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

• Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH

• Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year

• House Prices to Income

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The key (missing) reports this week are October CPI and Retail Sales.

Items in Red will not be released due to the government shutdown.

----- Monday, November 10th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, November 11th -----
Veterans Day Holiday: Most banks will be closed in observance of Veterans Day. The stock market will be open.

6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for October.

----- Wednesday, November 12th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

----- Thursday, November 13th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for October from the BLS.

----- Friday, November 14th -----
8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October.

8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for October from the BLS.

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Nov. 1

• Active inventory climbed 14.0% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 14.0% year-over-year, marking the two full years (104 weeks) of annual gains in inventory. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 27th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer, and homeowners aren’t eager to sell.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—fell 3.2% year over year

New listings were down 3.2% last week compared with the same period a year ago, The decline marks a reversal after three weeks of consecutive growth, suggesting that seller momentum is starting to cool heading into November.

• The median listing price was flat year-over-year

The median list price dipped slightly compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, price per square foot fell 0.7% year-over-year, dropping for the ninth consecutive week. Price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Decline in October

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) dropped to 202.9, reflecting a 2.0% decline in October’s wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to September. The index is mostly unchanged compared to October 2024. The long-term average monthly move for October is an increase of 0.3%, as the seasonal adjustment factor is typically the weakest of the year.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices were declined in October (seasonally adjusted) and were unchanged YoY.

From Revelio Labs: Employment — October 2025

Non-farm employment measures the total employment in the US (public and private) leveraging individual level data collected from online professional profiles. The monthly change in this total employment is a proxy for number of jobs added in the economy during the month. In October, the US economy lost 9 thousand jobs, predominantly driven by employment losses in the government sector.

Click on graph for larger image.

We need the BLS data!

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for October.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for November).

From Cotality (formerly CoreLogic): US home price insights — November 2025

• Year-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.2% in September 2025.

• Connecticut, New Jersey, Alaska, West Virginia, and Wyoming saw the highest year-over-year price growth this month. Washington D.C. and Florida saw home prices dip the most.
...
The U.S. housing market is continuing to cool off as summer fades into fall. Home prices across the country are starting to sag as inventory reaches its highest level since 2019. While the Northeast is still showing strong market signals, other regional differences are becoming apparent.
...
“Much like the K-shaped trend seen in overall consumer spending—driven largely by higher income groups—lower-income potential homebuyers are facing challenges due to an uncertain job market, sluggish wage growth, and worsening financial conditions. This is leading to weaker demand for homes and downward pressure on prices,” said Cotality’s Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp.

Amid falling prices, there has been a rise in serious mortgage delinquencies in some states like Florida, a state where a large proportion of markets are experiencing ebbing prices.
emphasis added

This graph from Cotality shows the Top 10 coolest markets.
The list is dominated by Florida.  According to Cotality, the highest risk markets are all in Florida.
House prices are under pressure with more inventory and sluggish sales.

SPECIAL NOTE on Government Shutdown and Air Travel from CoStar:

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy said the government would cut 10% of air traffic at 40 of the country’s busiest airports if the shutdown continues, the New York Times reports. The airports will be named later today.
...
The announcement comes just weeks before Americans will celebrate Thanksgiving. AAA’s latest forecast predicts 2.4 million planned to travel by air for the holiday. Last year, TSA screened more than 3 million passengers, a new record, during last year’s Thanksgiving week.

If the cuts happen, this will likely negatively impact hotel occupancy rates.

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 1 November

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 1 November. ...

26 October through 1 November 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 59.3% (-2.6%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$156.09 (+0.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$92.54 (-2.3%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in October

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

October sales will be mostly for contracts signed in August and September, and mortgage rates averaged 6.59% in August and 6.35% in September (lower than for closed sales in September).

In October, sales in these early reporting markets were down 2.8% YoY. Last month, in September, these same markets were up 7.4% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were the same number of working days in October 2025 (22) as in October 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be similar to the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET The initial weekly unemployment claims report will NOT be released.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Increase Slightly

A brief excerpt:

The NY Fed released the Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit this morning. Here are a few charts from the report.

The first graph shows mortgage originations by credit score (this includes both purchase and refinance). Look at the difference in credit scores in the recent period compared to the during the bubble years (2003 through 2006). Recently there have been almost no originations for borrowers with credit scores below 620, and few below 660. A significant majority of recent originations have been to borrowers with credit score above 760.

There is much more in the article.

From the NY Fed: Household Debt Balances Grow Steadily; Mortgage Originations Tick Up in Third Quarter

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The report shows total household debt increased by $197 billion (1%) in Q3 2025, to $18.59 trillion. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel. It includes a one-page summary of key takeaways and their supporting data points.

“Household debt balances are growing at a moderate pace, with delinquency rates stabilizing,” said Donghoon Lee, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed. “The relatively low mortgage delinquency rates reflect the housing market’s resilience, driven by ample home equity and tight underwriting standards.” Mortgage balances grew by $137 billion in the third quarter and totaled $13.07 trillion at the end of September 2025. Credit card balances rose by $24 billion from the previous quarter and stood at $1.23 trillion. Auto loan balances held steady at $1.66 trillion. Home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances rose by $11 billion to $422 billion. Student loan balances rose by $15 billion and stood at $1.65 trillion. In total, non-housing balances rose by $49 billion, a 1.0% increase from Q2 2025.

The pace of mortgage originations increased with $512 billion newly originated in Q3 2025. There was $184 billion in new auto loans and leases appearing on credit reports during the third quarter, a small dip from the $188 billion observed in Q2 2025. Aggregate limits on credit card accounts continued to rise by $94 billion, representing a 1.8% increase from the previous quarter. Home equity lines of credit (HELOC) limits rose by $8 billion, continuing the growth in HELOC limits that began in 2022.

Aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in Q3 2025, with 4.5% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transitions into early delinquency were mixed with credit card debt and student loans increasing, while all other debt types saw decreases. Transitions into serious delinquency mostly increased across debt types, although mortgages saw a slight decrease.
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Click on graph for larger image.

Here are two graphs from the report:

The first graph shows household debt increased in Q3.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008 and bottomed in Q3 2013. Unlike following the great recession, there wasn't a decline in debt during the pandemic.

From the NY Fed:

Aggregate nominal household debt balances increased by $197 billion in the third quarter of 2025, a 1% rise from 2025Q2. Balances now stand at $18.59 trillion and have increased by $4.44 trillion since the end of 2019, just before the pandemic recession.

The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency.

The overall delinquency rate increased in Q3.  From the NY Fed:

Aggregate delinquency rates remained elevated in the third quarter of 2025. The share of outstanding debt balances in some stage of delinquency was largely flat in 2025Q3; 4.5% of outstanding debt was in some stage of delinquency, 0.1 percentage points higher than the previous quarter. 

There is much more in the report.

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.4%, up from 50.0% the previous month. The employment index increased to 48.2%, up from 47.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52.4% October 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report

Economic activity in the services sector returned to expansion in October, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 52.4 percent and is in expansion territory for the eighth time in 2025.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In October, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.4 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the September figure of 50 percent. The Business Activity Index also returned to expansion territory in October, registering 54.3 percent, 4.4 percentage points higher than the reading of 49.9 percent recorded in September. The New Orders Index remained in expansion in October, with a reading of 56.2 percent, up 5.8 percent from September’s figure of 50.4 percent and its highest reading since October 2024 (56.7 percent). The Employment Index contracted for the fifth month in a row with a reading of 48.2 percent, a 1-percentage point improvement from the 47.2 percent recorded in September.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 50.8 percent, 1.8 percentage points lower than the 52.6 percent recorded in September and 0.7 percentage point below its 12-month average of 51.5 percent. This is the 11th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 70 percent in October, its first time at or above that threshold since a reading of 70.7 percent in October 2022. The October figure was a 0.6-percentage point increase from September’s reading of 69.4 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 11 straight months.
emphasis added

Employment was in contraction for the 5th consecutive month, and prices paid was high.

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 42,000 Jobs in October; Annual Pay was Up 4.5%

“Private employers added jobs in October for the first time since July, but hiring was modest relative to what we reported earlier this year,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Meanwhile, pay growth has been largely flat for more than a year, indicating that shifts in supply and demand are balanced.”
emphasis added

This was above the consensus forecast of 25,000 jobs added. The BLS report will NOT be released on Friday due to the government shutdown.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.9 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 31, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 151 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rate movements were mixed last week as Treasury yields moved slightly higher following last week’s FOMC meeting. The 30-year fixed rate was mostly unchanged at 6.31 percent and remained close to the lowest level in over a year,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite a decline last week, refinance applications are still significantly higher than a year ago. The average loan size for refinance applications was at its highest level in six weeks, as borrowers with larger loans continued to seek ways to lower their monthly payments. Purchase applications declined slightly from a week ago, however, there was slight increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek loan options to help manage challenging affordability conditions.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.31 percent from 6.30 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.58 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
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Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 26% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 25,000 jobs added, up from 32,000 lost in September.

• At 10:00 AM, the ISM Services Index for October.  The consensus is for a increase to 51.0 from 50.0.

• At 11:00 AM, NY Fed: Q3 Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Single-Family Rent Trends at INVH and AMH

Brief excerpt:

Some data and comments from housing economist Tom Lawler:

Below are tables showing single-family rent trends reported by Invitation Homes (INVH) and American Homes 4 Rent (AMH), two publicly traded companies in the single-family rental business.

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: House Prices to Income

Brief excerpt:

One of the metrics we'd like to follow is a ratio of house prices to incomes.

Unfortunately most income data is released with a significantly lag, and there are always questions about which income data to use (the average total income is skewed by the income of a few people).

And for key measures of house prices - like Case-Shiller - we have indexes, not actually prices. But we can construct a ratio of the house price indexes to some measure of income.
...
This graph uses the year end Case-Shiller house price index - and the nominal median household income through 2024 from the Census Bureau. 2025 median income is estimated at a 4% annual gain.

By this measure, house prices are 3% below the bubble peak, and about 9% below the recent peak.

There is much more in the article.

Omdia reported that light vehicle sales were at 15.3 million in October on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). October US Light Vehicle Sales Decline 4.5% YoY; 15.3 Million SAAR Lowest in 15 Months (pay site)

Demand in October fell to a longtime low seasonally adjusted annual rate of 15.3 million units as deliveries of battery-electric vehicles tanked and most segments recorded declines.

This was down 6.7% from the sales rate in September, and down 5% from October 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through October (red from Omdia).
Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".
Then sales were depressed in May and June. 
Sales were boosted in August and September due to the termination of the EV credit at the end of September.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in October were below the consensus forecast of 15.5 million SAAR.

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Highest Rates in Just Over 3 Weeks

In terms of MND's 30yr fixed index, we're currently at 6.34% versus last week's low of 6.13%. Contrast that to rates just under 7% in June and 7.25% earlier this year. [30 year fixed 6.34%]
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Tuesday (RED will not be released due to government shutdown):
• At 8:30 AM ET, Trade Balance report for September from the Census Bureau.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.