Individual Economists

Question #5 for 2026: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?

Calculated Risk -

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

5) Inflation: Core PCE was up 2.8% YoY through September. This was down from a peak of 5.6% in early 2022.  The FOMC is forecasting the YoY change in core PCE will be in the 2.4% to 2.6% range in Q4 2025. Will the core inflation rate decrease further in 2026, and what will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?

Although there are different measures for inflation, they all show inflation above the Fed's 2% inflation target on a year-over-year basis.

Note:  I follow several measures of inflation, including median CPI and trimmed-mean CPI from the Cleveland Fed.  Also core PCE prices (monthly from the BEA) and core CPI (from the BLS).

Inflation MeasuresClick on graph for larger image.

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.1% in November (down from 3.5% YoY in September), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.9% (down from 3.3%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.0% (down from 3.2%). 
Core PCE is for September was up 2.8% YoY, down from 2.9% in August.
The Fed is projecting core PCE inflation will decrease to 2.4% to 2.6% by Q4 2026. 
The good news is we should expect a further decline in housing inflation (asking rents have been flat for 3 years, and it takes time for the previous rent increases to filter through to renewals).  And inflation was fairly high in January last year (CPI up 5.7% annual rate, Core CPI up 5.5% annual rate) - so it is likely YoY measures of inflation will decline further in January.
From Goldman Sachs economists last week:
"We expect core PCE inflation to slow to 2.1% by the end of 2026 as tariff pass-through fades and wage growth and shelter inflation continue to fall."
My guess is core PCE inflation (year-over-year) will decrease in 2026 (from the current 2.8%) but still be above the Fed's 2% target by Q4 2026 (and above Goldmans forecast of 2.1%).  
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2026 and a few predictions:

Question #7 for 2026: How much will wages increase in 2026?

Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?<

Transcript: Jay Leno, Live Audrain Newport Concours & Motor Week

The Big Picture -

 

 

The transcript from this week’s MiB: Jay Leno, Live Audrain Newport Concours & Motor Week, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

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Transcript:

 

This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.

Happy holidays, and We have an extra-special holiday podcast at the Newport Ordering Concourse, elegance. I sit down with Jay Leno talking about cars, comedy, watches, and pretty much everything else. Jay’s a fascinating guy who’s created an amazing career.

I thought this conversation was super interesting, and I think you will also, with no further adieu, my conversation with the former host of The Tonight Show, Jay Leno.

Barry Ritholtz: Jay, thank you so much for joining us.

Jay Leno: Thanks for having me. So let’s start out with a little bit talking about your background. Uh, born in New Rochelle, you grew up in, um, Andover, Massachusetts. Which interest came first? Cars or comedy?

Jay Leno: Well, when you grow up in a little rural town, you don’t think of comedy as a job, you know? And I was known to the neighbors as Kathy’s boy wants to be comedian. He’ll grow out of that. He’ll say, don’t worry, Kathy, you, that, that kind of, you know, that kind of mm-hmm. People just, it, it didn’t seem like a viable, you know, you go to Hollywood, you meet kids wanna be lighting directors or costumes or, ’cause they know people that did that. You know, but when you’re in Andover, it’s like, what?

Barry Ritholtz: What sparked your interest in comedy? How did you find the path.

Jay Leno: I had very good teachers when I was in high school. I had a English teacher, Mrs. Hawks, and being dyslexic, I was not the best student. And you know, she said, “Oh, I see making jokes in class and stuff. Do you ever think of writing comedy?” I said, well, I never, I never thought it’d be a job. Oh, you should take, oh yeah, that’s it. She said, “I’ll tell you what. Why don’t you, maybe you could, instead of writing a paper for the final, you give a talk, you know?”

And I said, okay. And I tried to. Put some kid style jokes in and that was the first time in my life I actually enjoyed doing homework and mm-hmm. Well, maybe I can make a living doing this. But as a kid, you know, I think people at a comedians, you tend to remember things that are funny, things that get a reaction, you know?, I was in the fourth grade and Mrs. Allen was my teacher. I always remember this. She was telling us about, Robin Hood. how cruel the Sheriff of Nottingham was, and he would boil Robin’s men in oil, and I’d put my hand up and I said, you, you know why he did that to Tuck? And she said, no. Why? Because he was a Friar. Okay. And then she does one of these. “that’s not funny. Just stop that.” I, oh, see. Oh, she’s kinda laughing, you know. But the real kicker was later in the day, I’m walking past the teacher’s lounge. No, no. Come here. Well, what did you say about Friar Tuck? I said, and I went, oh, she told my joke in the teacher’s lounge and I said, oh. I said, he is a Friar. Oh, that’s was a friar, that’s a very funny thing. I went, oh, that’s, that’s pretty good. And I thought, oh, and when you’re a kid, you, you know people that you tend to remember things that get a laugh.

You just sort of, a little bit of attention. Yeah. You put them in your mind, you try, it makes a little indentation, you know? So that was always something I enjoyed doing. Always remembered it. But again, I never thought. I could make a living doing it.

Barry Ritholtz: Who were your comedic influences when you were growing up?

Jay Leno: Oh, Robert Klein, George Carlin. Richard Pryor, primarily Klein. ’cause Klein was like me, middle class white kid. You know, most comedians at that time tend to be, uh, grew up during the depression. Mm-hmm. And Youngman, uh, all those kind of guys, you know, kids today with the long hair, you know, all that kind of stuff.

Then all along comes Robert Klein. And, and, uh, and, and once again, George Carlin. Richard Pryor, Bill Cosby before the recent turn of events. Uh, you know, so it, it was, yeah, those were my influences.

Barry Ritholtz: Since we’re at the ordering Concourse and Motor Week, let’s talk a little bit about cars. (Good transition, right?)

Your first, your first car was a 34 Ford stock. What’d you do to it?

Jay Leno: I saw my dad and I were driving past the tip top miniature golf in North Reding, Massachusetts. It was parked at the Shell Station with a sale sign. I went and I bought it. Um, what’d you pay for that? $350. Mm-hmm. Which was a lot of money in Yes, in 1965.

But I had been working at McDonald’s and I’d saved some money and, you know, so, and then we dragged it back to my house and I took a couple years to get it running, and then I got my license and I drove it every day to school.

Barry Ritholtz: Self-taught mechanic. What do you mean? You took a couple years to get it?

Jay Leno: Oh, self. Self. Well, yeah, I mean, just. You know, you’re a kid, you’re playing with it after school, you know, that kind of thing. Uh, yeah, it took me a couple of years to learn how to do. Yeah, I guess self-taught would be the fair way to say it. Yeah.

Barry Ritholtz: So 34 Ford is the gateway drug. At what point did you realize this is more than a hobby, something of a passion.

Jay Leno: Well, when I had a garage full of cars, I Perhaps this is, uh, more than a Yeah, yeah.

Barry Ritholtz: Well, how many cars is too many? At what point do you need help?

Jay Leno: Just maintain, well, I have 214 on the road now. Plus the motorcycles.

I watch the show hoarders, and go, the guy’s fine. It’s a problem, man. You can still get to the bathroom. Look, but that’s old newspapers. You have motorcycles and cars. Something a little more reasonable when your parent did the same thing.

Barry Ritholtz: How do you decide of the 214 cars, which one you gonna take that day?

Jay Leno: That’s the first world problem. Mm-hmm. That’s not very much. So people don’t want to hear a rich guy go, how do I decide? I just can’t decide which guy. No. I mean, whatever I’m working on. If I do one oil change a day, it takes 18 months. So, right. You have to look at it that way. Right.

Barry Ritholtz: Watever you’ve just worked on, you say, let me drive it home to see if it’s okay.

Jay Leno: So that’s what I enjoy.

Barry Ritholtz: You’re a little bicoastal, you’re in L A but you also have a place here in Newport?

Jay Leno: I do have a place, and I also have a house in Andover, Massachusetts, where I grew up here.

Barry Ritholtz: Do you, do you keep any cars out here as well?

Jay Leno: No, I don’t. Because of the weather and mm-hmm. You know,

Barry Ritholtz: What do you drive when you get here?

Jay Leno: I’m one of these people. Really my car, you know? If my car was on another coast, oh, that would be horrible. Like, we go out to eat if, if I can’t see the restaurant from my table, we’re not eating here, honey.

Barry Ritholtz: I’m curious how Leno’s Garage came about. I have this fantasy that your accountant says to you…

Jay Leno: No, no, no. I have a garage, I have friends with cameras, I’m on TV already. This seems like a fairly natural transition.

Barry Ritholtz: Why don’t you take the TV hobby and put it on tv and this way you try to mo, um, you know, monetize it as much as you can?

Jay Leno: I did it for nothing for the first, I guess, 15 years. Really? Yeah. You know, just because I enjoyed doing it. It was fun. Um, and it just opens up another, you know, you should have something. I’m not a particularly interesting person. Uh, you know, so if you have other things of interest that other people like, then you have something in common, you can talk about it. So, cars, motorcycles. Anything that rolls, explodes, makes noise is interesting.

Barry Ritholtz: Do you know what the cars, uh, that are top of the list here are gonna be?

Have you walked around, seen much so far? Oh yeah. This, you have some of the best cars in the world here. This is quite an event. You are. And inevitably you see something you’ve never seen before or, or never even heard of.

Jay Leno: You know, the, uh, all countries are working on automobiles. In different, you know, you had cars from Czechoslovakia, the people on the other side of the mountains never heard of. Mm-hmm. You know, like a Tatra, a very unusual car. Most Americas never seen one, but it’s very popular in Czechoslovakia or what was then Czechoslovakia at the time.

So, yeah, so it’s a fascinating hobby and the nice thing about it is it’s no more than really 150 years old. You know, if you, if you like Egyptology, well now you gotta go back 6,000 years and stand in hot sun and dig in the sand. And, uh, you know that with cars, I only have to go back a few years. We, we took a walk down, um, the Boulevard earlier, the two that kind leapt out to me, aside from the Gulling, I know you have one of those was the Talbot Lagos.

Yeah. Spectacular. Yeah. Very interesting guy. They’re very art deco, you know? Yes. It’s only in recent years, cars are seen as kinetic artwork. Right. You know, it used to be just an old car. Mm-hmm. But now people are looking at them and I mean, it’s. You know, you can buy a painting that this for a hundred million dollars.

Right? You get something that rolls down the road, looks pretty, has a practical element to it. So, and only cost a 10th as much. Yeah. Only cost a 10 or sometimes, almost as much you Right. I mean, Ferrari go for the, I think the last Ferrari sold for $75 million. Yeah. I mean it’s pretty crazy. That’s a one of one though, right?

No, no, that’s one of 13. 13, wow. Yeah, I also saw, um, uh, and there wasn’t a sign on it, so I’m doing this. By sight, but a Mercedes SK 500, the giant front fenders has Yeah, yeah. Spectacular. Also, they are, they, I try to enjoy the, the, the, some suspicious things happen in Germany, even. Thirties to the mm-hmm.

Middle forties. I tend to avoid those for obvious reasons. Mm-hmm. But the early ones I love. Yeah. So let, let, let’s talk about some of these classic designs. What do you think has aged especially well? What looks good? Uh, perhaps that wasn’t thought of so well, when it first came out. Oh. Oh, what his age?

Well, I wasn’t thought when it first came. Well, two different court, I mean. Uh, shapes evolve. I mean, uh, cars used to change just for the sake of change. Mm-hmm. Now they change mostly because of aerodynamics and efficiency and, and things of that nature. You know, uh, I mean, a Prius is about an efficient shape as you can get, but it’s not, it’s attractive enough, but it’s not striking.

It doesn’t take your breath away the way. Mm-hmm. Some Ferraris by pin or whatever, you know, back in the, in, in the twenties, thirties, forties, fifties. Things are drawn by hand. So there’s a, there’s a, a flow. Yeah. Flow. Yeah. Like now everything is sort of computer design. You have all these sort of weird angles and things like that, but.

Uh, you know, the best looking cars are both masculine and feminine, like an XKE. Mm-hmm. I don’t know any women that don’t find Jaguars attractive. Even women that don’t know anything about cars, there’s something about, because it has a feminine element to it, but then it has the rear haunches and, and so it has a masculine, so it’s a little bit of both to it.

Mm-hmm. You know. A lot of cars look too brutal. You know, Lamber, goodie, Kosh? Mm-hmm. Those look like guy cars, right? You drive, one of the girls go, how old are you? Yeah, boy toy. You pull ’em a jag, you’re like, Ooh, I like that guy. Yeah. So sometimes the proportions, the shapes, the lines, they speak to everybody.

They’re universal. Yeah. I mean, it’s trick is. Well, if it speaks to everybody, then you have a Corolla. Mm-hmm. You know, the, the best. Cause people, some people love it, some people hate it. Anything that gets emotion going is probably gonna work on some level. You know, I remember talking to Bob Lutz about this when the Viper came out and said, A lot of people think it looks like a cartoon car.

It’s a bit over exaggerated because we’re not trying to sell it to them. We’re trying to sell it to the people who think it looks good and there’s enough of ’em out there, you know? For sure. So, so let’s talk about, um. People have to ask you questions about cars all the time, but they don’t have to.

Actually. Most of ’em just, people must assume. Lots of people do. Yeah. Yeah. When someone asks you for a recommendation, what, what, what do you recommend as a good, cheap set of wheels for a budding enthusiast? Well, you know, there are almost, or for an enthusiast mm-hmm. Or for transportation. Transportation is easy.

I mean, someone who wants something fun for the weekend, well, first they tell me what it is they’re looking for. You know, I, I, I mean obviously el cars, Mustangs, Camaros, things of this nature. Any sort of two seated sports car, uh, yeah, there’s plenty of choices out there. You don’t need me for that. Mm-hmm.

So this event is sponsored in part by Alanga and Sauna. Mm-hmm. Um, we’re both wearing Longa watches. What drew you to watches? See, I paid for mine. So did I. Oh, you did? I paid for mine also. So, so, and you probably have access to more of these than I can get, so, well, it’s interesting, you know, I, I, watchmaking and automotive things have a lot in common ’cause they’re both extremely mechanical.

Mm-hmm. Most watch people don’t really like electric watches the same way they don’t like quartz watches. Mm-hmm. Quart watches are obviously the most accurate you can get, but there’s, don’t appear to have a soul to ’em, you know, with these kind of things, when you turn, you hear the, the, you know. Mm-hmm. It is, it’s a sort of a.

The car, the watch needs you. If you don’t wind it, it won’t run. So there’s a human element that needs to be attached to watch, to get it to the run, you know? And if you flip it over, you can see the absolute spectacular mechanicals on the other side. Yeah. They do a beautiful job. So, so very parallel the, the precision and intricacy of a mechanical watch and a classic automobile.

Yeah. Yeah. I, I, I seen them as somewhat similar. I mean, I like things that need me, you know, my, my cars need me because I need to do certain things to make sure they run correctly. Electric cars kind of run them out of who the master is. Mm-hmm. You know, it’s about like that screen door. After a while, you learn it has to be shut a certain way.

Normal people can’t do it, but you know that you lift it and turn it just a quarter of an inch, oh, it’ll click in. Coming up, we continue our conversation with Jay Leno, live from the Newport, a Drain concourse, the elegance, discussing how a career in comedy. And car collecting led to a fascination with mechanical time pieces.

I am Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Jay Leno, comedian, car collector, timepiece enthusiast. Let’s return to our conversation live at the Newport or drain concourse Gonz. What, what are your thoughts on, on the new EVs and hybrids that are coming out?

What, what does this do to the collectible market? I, I believe you have a Tesla plaid, is that right? A Tesla plaid’s a great look. I used my electric card during the week. I mean, sitting on the freeway in a 40, a 1966 Hemi, 4 26, it gets three miles per gallon. Doesn’t really make a lot of sense. You’re not going fast, you’re not, you’re just annoying people and, and poisoning the atmosphere.

So you take your electric car then on the weekends. If there’s a car rally, you drive your Mustang or whatever car you have to the rally, you sit around and you tell lies about it to other people and they tell you lies about their car and you know, it’s a sort of, a little bit of interaction, you know, so, so I mentioned the precision of automobiles and the precision of watches.

You have famously been touring for 40 years, 40 plus years. Um, when you put together a standup set, do you put the same sort of precision into structuring that set as you do? Well, I think, I like to think so. Mm-hmm. I mean, you, you, you, you want to have a joke every six to nine seconds. It’s a bit like spinning plates of the Sullivan show, and then, then you want to keep it going, you know?

So you wanna make sure that the people, you’re not wasting people’s time. I hate when people are, how y’all doing? Woo. Anybody from Boston? Woo. Boston? Yeah. Okay. That’s not comedy. You’ve wasted 40 seconds. You know, get right. Yeah. Keep it moving. You know, when you watch Rodney, Rodney was a, I was a big fan of Rodney Dangerfield, and it was, it was the economy of words.

It’s getting the funniest words you can in the shortest amount of time. You know, Rodney had jokes I loved, like, uh, I worked practice strip joint. It said topless and bottomless. I went in. There was nobody there. I mean, it’s, it’s a funny joke. I mean, ’cause I didn’t waste your time. It wasn’t a three minute setup.

You know, one of his favorite jokes, it’s so stupid. My doctor wanted a semen sample, a stool sample. And a urine sample. So I gave my underpants. I mean, okay. But it’s quick. Boom, boom, boom. You’re not, you’re not wasting people’s time. Really. Interesting. So you’ve been known as somebody who just has toured his whole career, even during, what was it, 22 years of the Tonight Show?

You still were doing standup on a regular basis? Well, when you’re on television, you rely on 175 other people. Mm-hmm. They really can’t do the show without all the elements to it. And when you go out on the road, you’re by yourself. You rise the fall strictly on your own ability. And I, I, I like that you get all the blame, but you also get all the glory.

And, and I, I like that. Plus it’s piecemeal, right? Joke, tell joke, get checked, boom. Next show nobody says, you know the joke she told two months ago, they’re not working out. Come back. You gotta come back and do the show again. You don’t have to do that. You know? Mm-hmm. On tv you get, there’s so many irons in the fire and whatnot.

You’re dealing with. You know, and my, my favorite TV line of all time when NBC was letting me go, I said, you know, I’ve been number one for 23 years, well for 18, 18 of the 23 years. And they said, we want what’s above number one? I said, okay, what, uh, what is above? What is above number? I mean, just made me laugh.

And even they realize how stupid that song. I said, what do you mean? How can you have, what’s a above? Just tell me, somebody tell me what it, yeah. Just made me laugh. Sorry. So since this is Bloomberg, a financial network. Yeah, let’s, let’s talk a little bit about money. Alright. You are known as someone who is savvy with your money.

You only spent the money you earned doing standup. Well, I’m not savvy. I’m dyslexic. Yeah. Okay. So consequently I don’t really understand it. All I know is money. My I work and my money relaxes. That’s my, I don’t want my money out working for me. Because he’s gonna screw up somewhere. I don’t want that.

Right. Whenever I hear, and there’s minimal risk, and I hear the word risk. Mm-hmm. And minimal. So that means I’m gonna lose something, right? No, no. I, no, I don’t. I always had, even as a kid, I worked at Wilmington Ford, I worked in McDonald’s. Whichever job made the most I banked and the other money was my, you did the same with The Tonight Show.

You banked The Tonight Show. I never touched a check in 22 years from The Tonight Show. That’s amazing. I banked everything and I lived on the money I made as a comedian. Then when I, when I, uh, when the show ended it, oh, I opened this little pass book. Oh look, this. It’s quite a bit of money here, you know?

This is good. Yeah. So when you started collecting cars, did you ever envision this collection would get this large No. No. Or this valuable? No. I never thought that, no. When I, I remember I would sleep in the alleys in New York and it was the most depressing. I remember sleeping on the alley. It was one of those alleys where guys would come with hookers and I’d be in the back just hiding behind some trash cans and they were doing whatever.

Really, this is my life now. I mean, it was like. It’s the most horrible that really on the road you were that hard travel. I remember on 44th and ninth it was Dikes. Lumberyard, right across the way and from from the alley where I slept a couple of nights I could see dikes lumberyard. I always had that in my mind, and hookers would come in and they’d just, just horrible.

It’s a terrible, they just hear terrible sounds horrible. I said, really? This is my life. This is what it is now. You know? So everything better than that was gravy. Yeah. Well, it’s been a little bit of gravy. You recently had a, uh, gulling, you found in a barn you’ve had a number of barn. No, no. I, no, I didn’t.

I didn’t buy that. I didn’t buy, that car was found. It was sold for $10 million and we had the owner You had it on the show? We had it on the show, yes. I did not. I, I would like to have owned that car, but no, I didn’t buy it. Didn’t you find a number of barn fines, cars? Oh yeah. Sure, sure. What, what are some of the more memorable ones?

Um. Well, the most recent one was a 1963 Jaguar XKE. Uh, the guy bought it in 62, started drinking about 66, 67. He became a hoarder, just had trash piled on top of it. Uh, when he died, the family called me, they said, uh, cars right across the street. Uh, my uncles had some kind of car. We didn’t know what it was.

And it was a Jaguar. And I, I said, and, and this is really the best way. I said, look, Google it. Find out what’s it worth. Okay. Find out what they’re worth and let me know and I’ll pay you that. And that’s what I did. Seems fair. Yeah. I, I mean, I paid more than a fair price. Mm-hmm. Because I, I don’t flip cars.

I don’t sell cars. So to me, this way, nobody goes, you wanna rip me? I don’t, you don’t want any of that? Any cars on your list that you’re still, uh. Hunting for anything you’d like to have? No, you know, I buy, I buy the story as much as I buy the car. Really? Yeah. I mean, to me the fun, you know, I had a lady call me 94 years old, and she and her Hudson, her and her husband bought a 51 Hudson Hornet in New Jersey.

They drove it to California with their two kids. He bought a gas station. He ran that for the next 30 years. He died sometime in the early nineties. She calls me about 2000, I guess. Three, four. Uh oh. My husband died like 20 years ago. We got this car. I say I already have a 5,300 will come look at it. Okay, so I gotta look at it.

She’s 94, no hearing air, no glasses, right? And she said, would you gimme $5,000 for her? Okay. So I bought it. I take it back to my garage. It takes about a year and a half. We get it off and let me see if she’s still alive. I call her up. Hello? Oh, it’s jaylenn off. I said, the car’s all finished. You want to go for a ride?

She goes, okay, now she’s 96. Okay. And she says, can I bring the kids? I said, yeah, bring the kids. So I get there and the kids have got a blindfold and the kids are 74 and 72 and they’re blindfolded or right. And she’s like touching the car. Oh, the paint feels so smooth. Oh, it used to be so rough. We’ll take the blind.

Oh, she starts crying. We wanna go for, let’s go for araj. So the kids get in the back. Right. So we’re driving along and we’re talking, and the two kids start doing this to each other, poking each other, right? And, and she turns around. I, I told you kids, and she’s whacking the crap out of me. Mr. Leno was nice enough to take us a ride in his car, and you kids can’t be here.

And the three of them are just laughing. I mean, they’re just falling down. And she, and she’s not holding back. I mean, she’s really hitting them, but she’s laughing while she’s hitting them, you know? And it was just so funny. It was just so funny. She lived to be 106. Wow. And every time I get in that car, it makes me laugh.

’cause it was just so fun to see these, these two old men and they all look the same age. You know, she’s 96, they’re 74, and, and she just whacking the crap out of hilarious. So more stories than there’s a hole in your collection or you’re enamored with this? No, don’t have a hole. I know. I have enamored with this.

No, it’s just about the stories. You know, my key to success is low self-esteem. I’ve heard you say that before. Yes. Yes. Because. If you have low cycle esteem, you never assume you’re the smartest person in the room. I assume one of the dumbest person in the room. So let me look around and see what the other people are doing here, and that’s what you do.

You know, I have so many friends that do TV shows and they really think, I don’t like, I wanna change these lights. And the lighting director who’s been in the business 40 years, I don’t think, no wait, I wanna change. Well, no. Why? Why don’t just let the lighting director do his job? You know, the fun thing about the Tonight Show was when I did it, anybody could pull, pull a cord and stop the train because I don’t like this.

I don’t think this is funny. Did it get to be annoying sometimes? But everybody felt they had a, a say in what was going on. It felt like they were part of the whole system. This idea that, you know, do not make eye contact with the star and just all that kind of nonsense, you know? So to me that was always the key to, to, to being successful.

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I am Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio. My extra special guest this week is Jay Leno, comedian, car collector, timepiece enthusiast. Let’s return to our conversation live at the Newport or drain concourse Gonz. So, so let’s stay with, um, the Tonight Show and comedy.

All right. Um, you’ve interviewed a few presidents, right? Right. Um, you interviewed Barack Obama. Who, what other presidents did you interview? Uh, was Barack Obama. Was Reagan before you, uh, started on, no, I, I interviewed Reagan. They had dinner with Reagan at the White House a couple times, but he wasn’t ever on the show.

Barack Obama was the first sitting president ever to do the show. Mm-hmm. Um. Uh, Barack Obama, Hillary had the nomination locked up and then he announced he was running for president. So I called him up and said, wanna come on the show? Oh, we’ll call. Thank you so much. You know, he rented a car, drove himself to the show, you know, walks out.

I goes, Hey, my name’s Barack was saying Obama. I’m running the president of the United. I said, okay, black guy from Chicago named Hussein. I said, you know, you shouldn’t even have to campaign. I just think you, you’re shooing with that. And you know, he got the joke and he’d laugh and he was very funny. And we got to be friends.

And so next time he came on the show, I asked him, it was the first time a sitting president and the whole parking lot was tented. Mm-hmm. So a satellite could not see where, when it came in, where it came in, couldn’t tell. Yeah. And I mean, I’ve told this story, but this is. I have the same idiot friends I had in eighth grade, so I’m telling him I had Barack Obama on the show and he gave me this phone number.

Nah, Uhuh Uhhuh. Uhuh Uhhuh. You don’t get it. You said you now, alright, let’s call him up. I go, I’m, it’s surprising the United States, I’m not gonna call him up. No, you don’t have it now. Uhuh Uhhuh now Uhuh Uhhuh. So I, I take out my phone book and I cover the phone and they go, see what it says there. Barack Obama president, the United States, his phone number is right under here.

You you? I said alright. Alright. I’ll call him. You want me to call him? Ill call. It’s like three o’clock, I figure. Okay, what can go wrong? Yeah. Hello, Brock Here. Mr. President. Yeah. Jay Leno. We’re gonna do vj. I’m just here with some of my friends. Lose this number. Jay, click. So your reputation has never been, uh, a very political.

Uh, comedian, you play it straight down the middle. Well, I used to get, we used to get quoted every day in the New York Times. We, we, we tried to make fun of both sides. Yeah. Mm-hmm. But yeah, that’s the way we did it. That’s not the way everybody else does it, but that’s okay. So, so recently Jimmy Kimmel mentioned on the air that you called to check in on him when, when he was temporarily suspended.

Uh, is what do you think the future of late night looks like? And and what does that say about the comedians have to watch what they say. Well, apparently they don’t have to watch what they say ’cause he’s back on tv. Mm-hmm. Okay. I mean, you either believe in free speech or you don’t, you know, free speech.

It only becomes annoying when it says something you don’t like. Mm-hmm. Other than that, it’s fine. And that that’s really the only, the only problem. And there’s always something somebody doesn’t like, whether it’s banning books or Huck Finn or whatever it might be. Uh, so to me, I, I always support street. I mean, I support Jimmy as a comedian, but also just the whole premise.

You don’t have to agree with him to realize. I mean, I, I, I had people that tore me apart every day. But they had the right to do it. I, I, I didn’t like what they said, but I agree with their right to say it if they chose. Yeah. You, you have Dave Chappelle speaking at the comedy festival in Saudi Arabia.

Mm-hmm. Saying he feels like, uh, free speech is under assault in the us. Uh, not that Saudi Arabia is a hotbed of free speech. Well, yeah, yeah. Again, I, I don’t like this new thing of comics criticizing other comics. We’re comedians. Okay. Just, you know, I believe in free speech. I, I shouldn’t have to say any more than that and I will defend it.

To the end, but, you know, and how about when he said this again, whatever, I don’t have to agree with it. Mm-hmm. You know, it’s like the Nazis marching in Skokie. Okay. They, they have the right to do that. I don’t agree with it. Well, I He like to see someone punch them in the face. Yes. But I don’t want that to be police doing it.

If some angry Jewish guy was about, well, okay, it’s fine with me, you know, I might even cheer him on, but I’m, no, I, I, I, again, I think you hit. It’s America. You have the right. And what about the, in the era of streaming, what about the future of late night? We heard Colbert is supposedly not profitable. I don’t know how true that is.

We heard similar threats about Jimmy’s show. How do you look at, you were a steward of the Tonight Show for 22 years. What do you think the future of this looks like? Well, I, I, I mean, when you could turn on streaming. And see Harrison Ford talk for half an hour saying whatever you want unscripted. Or you could watch him do a seven minute segment on a talk show, which you gonna do?

Or Jay Leno for 45 minutes unscripted. Yeah. But yeah. Well, I mean, to me, I think it just, the nature of television, it, it changes. It goes from one thing to another. I mean, it’s like going from CD players to cas cassettes, to CDs to it is just another. It’s another format that, that you can, that you can use.

So, uh, the thing that really kills late night is the incessant number of commercials. Mm-hmm. After 1130, you can run like nine minutes at 12 o’clock where some crazy. Yeah. It’s crazy. It’s wild. Yeah. So, and when you realize you’ve just watched all three Godfather movies in a row without one commercial, suddenly seeing Jake from State Farm again.

You know, okay, enough with this guy, you know, to me that’s the thing that’s really hurt. Late night. It’s not necessarily what people say. It’s the fact that people, oh God, another commercial, you just, you know, reading through. All right. So we don’t want to keep you all day ’cause we know you have a lot of places to go, cars to see.

Alright, I wanna, I wanna do a speed round, uh, a speed round, right. A dozen questions in under a minute. I’m just gonna throw these at you and, and gimme your answers. Alright. Starting with, what’s your favorite car to drive a dusenberg, what’s your favorite motorcycle in your garage? Uh, brush superior. What car offers the best bang for the buck?

Corvette, what’s your favorite car in your collection? Not necessarily a driver, but just the favorite car. Uh, McLarin one. That’s, that’s tough one to argue with. What’s been the biggest maintenance annoyance in your collection? Uh, my 1925 Doble Steam car. The one that kind of blew up. Is that the one we’re talking about?

That blew up, but that wasn’t the one that actually blew up in my face. No. Any cars you have any regrets passing on? Oh yeah. Was all. What modern car features do you find most annoying? Uh, probably the infotainment system. Uh, you know, I have my 51 Hudson. I reach out, I press a button, I get a station. I don’t have to stop and look at it.

Are you happy this thing? Yes. Would you make this election again? Yes. Others have made this election. Would you continue? Yes, I would. You know, would you pick your language? English is good. Thank you. You know, I it annoying. Um, what car do you drive the most often from your collection? Oh, I don’t know. Uh, well, hmm.

I drive a lot of them. Cardo. Uh, that’s what they were made for. A model t’s kind of fun, I guess I don’t drive it that much. Uh, probably the Mustang. That’s pretty good. Well, actually the Tesla won’t have to go to the airport and all those kind of things. What, what’s the rarest car in your collection? Not necessarily the most valuable, but one of very few.

Well, that would be the double steam car. Yeah. Mm-hmm. Um, is there any one brand you would never buy that you stay away from? No, no, not everyone breaks you. You don’t have a lot of Ferrari, right? No, I don’t have any Ferrari. But it has nothing to do with the cars. The cars are excellent. You know, for the longest time you had to buy two Manial before you’re allowed to buy the car.

You, you know, so I just never took part in that. What car surprises people the most, whether driving it or just the way it’s put together? Well, I have the kind of cars people. Not surprised that I got there earlier, late. They’re surprised I got there at all. When you show up in a 1906 Stanley Steamer and it’s on fire, people like, oh my God, your car’s on fire.

Yeah, I know. It’s supposed to. It’s supposed to be. You carry open flame in. Um, what’s the most recent addition to the collection? A Mustang, GTD. What’s the best sounding engine you own? Uh uh, um, Porsche GT V 10. And final question. Oh, is, is there one dream car you’re still hunting for? No. No. I’m, I’m, I’m.

Quite happy with what I have. Like I said, be happy what you have. Just make sure you have enough. There you go. Thank you Jay, for being so generous time. Alright, well thank, thank you. Thank you.

That was my live interview with Jay Leno at the Newport Audrey Concourse Elegance. If you enjoyed that conversation, check out any of the 592 we’ve done over the past 12 years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, Bloomberg, YouTube, wherever you get your favorite podcasts. And be sure to check out my new book, how Not to Invest the ideas, numbers, and Behavior that Destroys Wealth and how to avoid them at your favorite bookstore or book seller.

I would be remiss if I did not thank the correct team that puts these conversations together each week. My videographer at the live event was Sebastian Escobar. Alexis Noriega is my video producer, Anna Luke is my podcast producer. Sean Russo is my researcher. Sage Bauman is the head of podcast here at Bloomberg.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

 

 

~~~

 

 

 

 

The post Transcript: Jay Leno, Live Audrain Newport Concours & Motor Week appeared first on The Big Picture.

The AI Arms Race Is Cracking Open The Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Zero Hedge -

The AI Arms Race Is Cracking Open The Nuclear Fuel Cycle

Authored by Michael Kern via OilPrice.com,

  • The abstract "cloud" of artificial intelligence possesses a massive, structural demand for 24/7 "baseload" power that is equivalent to adding Germany's entire power grid by 2026, a need intermittent renewables cannot meet.

  • Decades of underinvestment have resulted in a widening uranium supply deficit, with mined uranium expected to meet less than 75% of future reactor needs and an incentive price of $135/lb required to restart mothballed mines.

  • Big Tech hyperscalers are privatizing energy security by locking in clean baseload nuclear power via long-term agreements, effectively making the public grid's "service" secondary to the "compute-ready" requirements of major platforms.

We are seeing a violent collision between two worlds: the high-speed, iterative world of artificial intelligence and the slow, grinding, capital-intensive world of nuclear physics. 

Data from a survey of over 600 global investors reveals that 63% now view AI electricity demand as a "structural" shift in nuclear planning. This isn't a temporary spike or a speculative bubble. It is the physical footprint of every Large Language Model (LLM) query finally showing up on the global balance sheet.

For years, the energy narrative was dominated by "efficiency." We were told that better chips would offset higher usage. That era is over. Generative AI doesn't just use data; it incinerates energy to create it.

Why the "Efficiency" Narrative Failed

The "Reverse-Polish" reality of AI is that the more efficient we make the chips, the more chips we deploy, and the more complex the models become. This is Jevons Paradox playing out in real-time across the data centers of Northern Virginia and Singapore.

When you look at the energy density required for an AI hyperscale center, you aren't looking at a traditional office building. You are looking at a facility that pulls as much power as a mid-sized city, but does so with a 99.999% uptime requirement.

Traditional demand models simply didn't account for a single industry deciding to double its power footprint in less than five years. S&P Global Energy recently highlighted that data center electricity consumption could hit 2,200 terawatt-hours (TWh). 

Intermittent renewables…the darlings of the corporate ESG report…cannot provide the 24/7 "baseload" these machines require...

The hyperscalers have realized that if they want to dominate AI, they need to secure physical atoms before the other guy does.

The $135 Ceiling and the Mining Reality Gap

While the demand side is moving at the speed of software, the supply side is stuck in the mud of 20th-century industrial timelines.

The uranium market is currently a "two-speed" machine. On one hand, you have short-term spot price volatility that makes traders nervous. On the other, you have a long-term supply deficit that is widening like a canyon. 

Data suggests that mined uranium will meet less than 75% of future reactor requirements.

We are living through the consequences of twenty years of underinvestment. After 2011, the world essentially stopped looking for uranium. We lived off the "secondary supply"...old Cold War warheads and utility stockpiles. Those stockpiles are now effectively exhausted.

More than 85% of investors surveyed anticipate uranium prices hitting the $100–$120/lb range by 2026. Some are looking at $135/lb.

I see these numbers, and I don't see "growth." I see a desperate incentive price. $135 isn't a sign of a healthy market… it is the price required to beg miners to reopen mothballed pits and navigate the ten-year permitting hellscape required for a greenfield project.

Mining is a "boots-on-the-ground" reality that doesn't care about digital timelines.

Who Collects the Equity and Who Pays the Bill?

There is a massive shift happening in the power dynamics of infrastructure. For decades, nuclear power was a public service…state-funded, state-regulated, and built for the citizen.

Now, we are seeing the "Private Platform" era of nuclear energy. When a hyperscaler signs a twenty-year Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with a nuclear utility, they are effectively "locking in" the best, cleanest baseload power for private profit.

The question we aren't asking: who pays for the grid upgrades to support this?

The hyperscalers want the green electrons to satisfy their net-zero pledges, but the physical copper and transformers required to move that power often fall on the rate-paying public or the state. We are witnessing the privatization of energy security.

If 63% of investors are right and AI is the new driver of nuclear planning, the "public service" aspect of the grid is about to become a secondary concern to the "compute-ready" requirements of Big Tech.

The equity is being collected by the tech platforms and the uranium miners. The risk is being socialized by the grid.

The Geopolitical Reality of Uranium Supply

We cannot talk about the uranium market without talking about the "Iron Fist" of state policy. The West is currently trying to rebuild a supply chain that it intentionally dismantled.

The U.S. and Europe are aggressively pushing "sustainable finance frameworks" to include nuclear, but they are doing so while facing a massive bottleneck in enrichment and conversion capacity…much of which is still tied to Russian state interests.

China, South Korea, and the UAE aren't waiting for the market to "find a price." They are treating nuclear as a matter of national survival. China is currently building more reactors than the rest of the world combined.

They understand something the West is only just realizing: you cannot run a 21st-century economy on 19th-century energy densities.

If the uranium supply remains constrained, we won't just see higher prices. We will see a geopolitical scramble for "off-take" agreements. The nation that secures the uranium secures the AI lead.

The "vibe" of energy abundance is a lie...We are entering an era of energy rationing by price.

The Technical Friction: Steel vs. Code

The most significant gap in the current market "bull case" is the technical audit of the hardware.

The survey data shows that investors are betting on "restarts" and "greenfield developments" to close the supply gap. But you can't just pour money into a hole and expect uranium to come out the next day.

Uranium mining is plagued by:

  • Water Management Issues: Especially in places like Kazakhstan (the world's largest producer), where sulfuric acid shortages have already hampered production targets.

  • Labor Scarcity: We have a generation of mining engineers who were told nuclear was dead. They didn't go to school for this.

  • The Enrichment Bottleneck: Even if you have the yellowcake, you need to turn it into fuel. The West's capacity to do this is currently maxed out.

Sprott Asset Management correctly notes that utilities can only defer procurement for so long. Eventually, they have to buy. When they do, they will find a market where the physical steel and the chemical reagents are in shorter supply than the capital.

The "catch-up trade" of 2026 isn't just about price. It’s about the reality that we forgot how to build big things in the physical world.

The Bill for the Utopia

We are being sold a vision of AI-driven abundance…health breakthroughs, autonomous cities, and limitless productivity.

But to get that utopia, we need to solve a uranium deficit that has been building for twenty years. 

We need to build reactors at a pace not seen since the 1970s. 

And we need to do it while the primary producers are facing technical and geopolitical headwinds.

The $100–$120/lb range is just the beginning. If the supply response doesn't materialize…and given the 15-year lead times, why would it?  We are looking at a permanent state of high-cost energy for everyone who isn't a trillion-dollar tech company.

We are finally moving from a world of "clicks" back to a world of "kilowatts"...And the kilowatts are getting very, very expensive.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 12:20

Russia 'Confidently Advancing' In Ukraine, Over 30 Settlements Captured In December: Putin

Zero Hedge -

Russia 'Confidently Advancing' In Ukraine, Over 30 Settlements Captured In December: Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear to both his citizens and to the world that the 'special military operation' in Ukraine will continue on until all goals are achieved, and that his forces are advancing 'confidently'.

He chaired a televised meeting with the country's top military officials, focused on a status update regarding Ukraine, and crucially coming the day after Presidents Trump and Zelensky met in Florida in a failed effort to reach breakthrough on the proposed peace deal. Moscow is pressing ahead with its goal of fully capturing and pacifying the four Ukrainian regions it declared part of the Russian Federation in fall of 2022 via a 'popular referendum'.

"The goal of liberating the Donbas, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions is being carried out in stages, in accordance with the plan of the special military operation," Putin described before underscoring, "The troops are confidently advancing."

Sputnik/Reuters

At the meeting it was also announced that Russian troops have made more gains in the last 24 hours, especially the capture of Dibrova village in Donetsk region.

According to an update of the meeting via RT translation, battlefield gains of the past month are significant:

In December, Russian forces liberated over 700 square kilometers of territory, taking some 32 settlements under control, Gerasimov said at the meeting. This month, the military has shown the highest rate of progress in the entire outgoing year, he noted, adding that troops are advancing “along virtually the entire frontline.”

"The adversary is not undertaking any active offensive actions. They have concentrated their main efforts on strengthening their defenses and are attempting to slow the pace of our advance by conducting counterattacks in isolated areas and using drones en masse," Gerasimov said.

The Kremlin has at the same time reiterated that it is not interested in a 'Plan B or Plan C' in terms of a peace deal, but that it only seeks lasting political settlement. This will of course include international recognition of its territories in the Donbass.

According to highlights the Russian president’s speech after his meeting with top defense officials, via a TASS and Al Jazeera compilation:

  • Attempts by Ukraine to interfere with the Russian army in Kupiansk must be decisively suppressed.
  • The capture of Siversk allows for the development of offensives towards the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
  • Prospects for the complete capture of the Donbas territory have been discussed.
  • Expansion of the security zone along the Russian-Ukrainian border is on the table.
  • Troops have broken through the Ukrainian defences and are advancing towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.

Putin, surrounded by his generals, is making clear to the world that he remains in the driver's seat - with all the leverage on the field of battle - and that Zelensky has no cards to play.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 12:00

The Market Risk In 2026 If Growth Projections Fail

Zero Hedge -

The Market Risk In 2026 If Growth Projections Fail

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

There is a rising market risk in 2026 that is largely overlooked as we wrap up this year. As discussed in the “Fed’s Soft Landing Narrative,” optimism about 2026 is running high.

Currently, investors are pricing in strong economic growth, robust earnings, and a smooth path of disinflation. Notably, Wall Street estimates suggest a significant acceleration in corporate profits, particularly among cyclical stocks and small- to mid-cap sectors. To wit:

“Wall Street currently expects the bottom 493 stocks to contribute more to earnings in 2026 than they have in the past 3 years. This is notable in that, over the past three years, the average growth rate for the bottom 493 stocks was less than 3%. Yet over the next 2 years, that earnings growth is expected to average above 11%.”

“Furthermore, the outlook is even more exuberant for the most economically sensitive stocks. Small and mid-cap companies struggled to produce earnings growth during the previous three years of robust economic growth, driven by monetary and fiscal stimulus. However, next year, even if the Fed’s soft landing narrative is valid, they are expected to see a surge in earnings growth rates of nearly 60%.”

There is nothing wrong with having an optimistic outlook when it comes to investing; however, “outlooks can change rapidly,” which is a significant market risk, particularly when expectations and valuations are elevated.

Notably, these forecasts rest on an assumption that the economy will not only avoid recession but reaccelerate in the face of waning inflation. As noted, equity markets have responded by pushing valuations higher across major indexes, with price-to-earnings ratios well above historical medians. Simultaneously, investors have rewarded narratives built on the idea of a soft landing and a return to pre-pandemic trends.

However, this narrative appears to overlook the trends in recent economic data. Inflation expectations have moderated, not because of increased demand, but due to weaker consumption and cooling labor dynamics. As recent economic data indicate, disinflation has accompanied slower GDP growth and a decline in personal consumption momentum. If the economy were indeed set to reaccelerate, these trends should be increasing rather than returning to historical averages.

The soft landing thesis posits a benign cycle in which inflation declines, growth remains stable, and earnings increase. Yet, that outcome would be historically rare. When inflation falls this quickly, it typically reflects a slowdown in demand rather than policy success. Additionally, the strong relationship between economic growth and earnings should not be dismissed. That disconnect exposes investors to market risk if growth does not materialize as expected and valuations are reconsidered.

With analysts expecting strong revenue growth and margin expansion despite rising input costs, global uncertainty, and declining employment, a market priced for perfection leaves little room for earnings misses or growth shocks. If those optimistic assumptions fail, market risk could rise abruptly.

Let’s dig in.

Structural Headwinds

As noted above, earnings growth is fundamentally tied to economic growth. When demand exceeds supply, companies expand output, raise prices, and increase profits. As discussed recently, this is why, without inflation, there can not be economic growth, increasing wages, and an improving standard of living. In other words, for there to be stronger economic growth and rising prosperity, prices must increase over time. Such is why the Fed targets a 2% inflation rate, thereby supporting 2% economic growth and stable employment levels.

However, the employment data over the last year doesn’t tell a story of substantial employment, rising wages, or a trend suggesting a more robust economic outlook. Instead, the latest data confirmed a deceleration in economic activity, as full-time employment (as a percentage of the population) declined.

The importance of full-time employment should not be readily dismissed. Full-time employment pays higher wages, provides family benefits, and allows for an expansion of consumption. The decline in full-time employment currently is normally associated with recessions rather than expansions. Economic growth, inflation, and personal consumption are trending lower, given that employment, particularly full-time employment, supports economic supply and demand.

Furthermore, economic growth relies heavily on consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP. For that consumption to persist or grow, consumers must have rising incomes, which come from employment and wage growth. Without job creation or real wage increases, consumption growth stagnates, and the earnings narrative breaks down. As shown, when economic growth declines, so do earnings growth rates.

Recent employment data show cracks in this cycle. While headline job numbers suggest continued hiring, the quality and composition of those jobs are weakening. Today we see part-time workers filling full-time positions, often with lower pay and fewer benefits. Labor force participation remains below pre-pandemic levels, and many prime-age workers are not returning. Most notably, the negative revision of every monthly employment report in 2025 further undermines the “strong economy” narrative.

Even where wages are rising nominally, inflation-adjusted wages tell a different story. Real wage growth has been flat or negative in several key sectors. As housing, energy, and service prices remain high, the squeeze of disposable income increases. As such, consumers compensate by drawing down savings or using credit, both of which are unsustainable long-term strategies.

The market risk in 2026, is that for corporate earnings to accelerate and meet Wall Street’s expecations, the consumer must be healthy. That means rising real wages and broad-based job creation. Without those pillars, top-line revenue growth slows, and margin pressures increase. Analysts projecting double-digit earnings growth into 2026 are assuming a demand-driven economy without the income growth needed to support it. That assumption is increasingly fragile. Without real economic growth, earnings become a product of financial engineering or cost-cutting, not organic expansion. Markets are pricing in a demand surge that the employment data do not confirm.

If this disconnect persists, Wall Street will revise earnings expectations lower.

Valuation Fragility

That last sentence is the most crucial. With valuations near cycle highs, (the S&P 500 trades at over 22x times forward earnings, which is well above its long-term average), such assume strong earnings growth and low discount rates. Yet both assumptions are vulnerable. If economic growth undershoots, earnings revisions will follow. Historically, earnings have tended to lag behind the economic cycle. As consumption softens, revenue growth stalls. Margins then compress, especially for companies with high labor or financing costs, and with narrow market breadth and concentration in mega-cap names, the market risk is a sudden repricing of those expectations.

Credit risk premiums remain compressed across all asset classes, from high-yield to investment-grade, which reflects a belief in Fed control and continued monetary easing. If those beliefs are shaken, volatility will return. Market participants are not expecting a scenario where all risk assets decline simultaneously, including stocks, crypto, precious metals, and international markets.

Implications for Investors

The market risk for investors is not a 2008-style collapse. However, a far more likely scenario is a long period of underperformance. That underperformance will likely be a function of earnings disappointment, weak growth, and multiple compression. Market analysts are currently pricing the market for acceleration. But those views may struggle is stagnation, and the “path of least resistance,” shifts from upward momentum to sideways drift or correction.

As such investors should continually monitor and assess the risk they are taking in portfolios.

  • Reassess exposure to high-multiple equities and overconcentrated sectors. While technologty drives index performance, valuations are high and if growth expectations are too high, tech earnings will likely fail to meet them. The same applies to consumer discretionary stocks tied to fragile spending.

  • Consider a more defensive position, focusing on free cash flow, balance sheet strength, dividends, and pricing power.

  • Add bonds to your portfolio to protect prinicpal and create income. Furthermore, in the event of a risk-off rotation, investors will seek the safety of bonds to reduce portfolio risk. Being there before the correction occurs can be beneficial to outcomes.

  • Liquidity should always be a priority. If risk aversion returns, liquidity conditions can tighten quickly. Investors consider a scenario where risk assets (stocks, commodities, metals, and cryptocurrencies) decline sharply as risk resets

A prudent approach is to reduce exposure to narrative-driven assets and increase allocations to quality. Investors should favor sectors with consistent earnings, low leverage, and stable dividends. Cash remains underappreciated as a strategic tool, and with real yields positive and volatility likely to rise, liquidity is a source of optionality.

The next two years will test the soft landing thesis. If growth falls short, earnings disappoint, or inflation returns, markets will face a reset. That reset may not be dramatic, but it will be painful for those overexposed to the current consensus.

The best defense is valuation discipline, risk awareness, and a willingness to question the prevailing narrative.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 11:40

Nigerians Applaud Trump's Military Strikes On Islamic Terrorists

Zero Hedge -

Nigerians Applaud Trump's Military Strikes On Islamic Terrorists

Trump's military strikes against Islamic terror groups in Nigeria have been met with overall applause by Nigerian citizens and migrants residing in the US.  Authorities say the groups have links to jihadist networks in Mali and Niger and their members have settled in border communities, recruiting young people and imposing brutal controls.

Associated Muslim militants were responsible for numerous attacks on Christian communities and schools in the country in early 2025, including the coordinated massacre of 280 Christian farmers in the village of Yelwata; many victims burned alive or hacked to death. It was one of the worst single incidents of Christian slaughter in the past decade.

In a national statement, Nigeria's information ministry said "precision strike operations" had been carried with the "explicit approval" of President Bola Tinubu and with "the full involvement of the armed forces of Nigeria".  Trump brought global exposure to the attacks on Christians in the region, accusing the Nigerian government of apathy in the face of genocide. 

The event is being framed as a "joint operation" between Nigeria and the US, however, it is likely that international attention forced the hand of the current regime to cooperate with US military operations.  Nothing would have been done about the militants had Trump not stepped in.

Many Christian Nigerians abroad and migrants in the US are optimistic about the country's prospects for peace and have applauded the strikes.  Nigeria is 56% Muslim and 43% Christian.  The northern provinces, controlled by Muslims, have instituted Sharia Law despite the country having a "secular constitution."  This has created religious tensions across the nation and helped to enable escalating Islamic militant attacks. 

      

It's good to see at least one group of third world migrants showing appreciation for US efforts.  

The establishment media in the west, however, is not happy about Trump's efforts in Africa, and has been working diligently to deny that the conflict is driven by religious motives.  Though they are forced to admit that the strikes have had a positive effect on Nigeria's Christian population, they continue to frame the killings of villagers as "land disputes" (take note of the seemingly scripted propaganda planted in the AP report below).

The motives of the media are obvious; third world immigration is an integral part of the multicultural agenda to destabilize the west and admitting that Islamic migrants might be a security hazard hurts that agenda.  They could not be more transparent, given the fact that journalists immediately tried to make the issue about immigration once news of the strikes hit the new feeds.

Western journalists have accused Trump of hypocrisy because of his block on immigration from a number of African nations including Nigeria.  They argue that Trump does not really want to help Christians because he won't allow Nigerians to come to the US to escape the sectarian violence.

However, simply claiming to be Christian is not enough to gain US citizenship.  Trump's position is clear - Third world populations need to fix their own countries rather than running to the US.  Despite the socialist "melting pot" narrative, America has never been obligated to take on the refugees of the world.  The Trump Administration's intervention in Nigeria only shows that the President is serious about those people staying where they are so they can repair or replace their broken government.   

In July as Trump ramped up criticism of the Nigerian government's handling of the situation, NPR attempted to paint the attacks as a "land dispute" over access to cattle grazing areas. They repeated the Nigerian Foreign Ministry's claims that the events had "nothing to do with religion."  In almost every case of Christians being hunted by Muslim militants, the media is on the side of the governments that allow the attacks to happen.   

A number of western media platforms dismiss or marginalize the attacks on Christian villages in Nigeria, claiming that "most victims are Muslims."  What they don't mention is that most Muslim "victims" are largely rival militants fighting for a superior position.  Christians have not involved themselves in the power struggle, yet, they are specifically targeted for extermination.  

Reports from the International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety) state that over 7,000 Christians were killed in Nigeria in the first 220 days of 2025.  The bottom line is, Christians are disproportionately targeted by Islamic violence in Africa and African governments are content to let it happen.  

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 11:20

Waste Of The Day: Austin Funds Allegedly Sent To Fake Companies

Zero Hedge -

Waste Of The Day: Austin Funds Allegedly Sent To Fake Companies

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearInvestigations,

Topline: A then-employee at the City of Austin’s energy utility allegedly paid $980,000 in taxpayer funds to fictional companies with bank accounts belonging to his family members, according to a new report from the city auditor.

Key facts: Mark Ybarra was given a city credit card from 2018 to 2023 to hire repair companies for city buildings. He used it to pay 30 different vendors, but the city auditor could only verify that eight of them were real companies, according to the report. 

Ten of the companies reportedly had the same address, which the city auditor said is the home of one of Ybarra’s relatives. The businesses received $400,000 from the city. One of them had Ybarra’s email address listed as its contact information, according to the report.

The remaining $580,000 went to businesses that “appeared to be fake,” many of which were missing basic information like an address and phone number, according to the report. 

Ybarra resigned in October 2023 after Austin Energy officials asked questions about the invoices, according to the report. He was indicted for felony theft this September. 

Records obtained by Open the Books show Ybarra earned $534,797 in taxpayer-funded salary during the six years he was allegedly defrauding the city.

The city auditor claimed the alleged fraud went undetected because of Austin Energy’s “inefficient purchasing controls.” Most of his purchases were approved by former Facility Service Supervisor Sammy Ramirez, who never raised questions about the missing addresses and phone numbers on Ybarra’s invoices, according to the report.

Mark Ybarra’s wife, Ambrosia Ybarra, worked at the city's Watershed Protection Department. She was questioned by the city auditor about her husband’s invoices but allegedly left the interview before it was over, according to the report. She resigned this November.

Ambrosia Ybarra made $70,174 in 2024. Ramirez made $87,262 in 2022, his last year of employment, but made as much as $104,698 in 2021.

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world’s largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com

Summary: Austin’s scandal is yet another reminder that the government agencies spending huge amounts of money relative to the population of the areas they serve are often the ones most vulnerable to mistakes and fraud. 

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 11:00

Abrego Garcia Free To Make TikTok Videos While DHS Kept Silent Under Gag Order

Zero Hedge -

Abrego Garcia Free To Make TikTok Videos While DHS Kept Silent Under Gag Order

Kilmar Abrego Garcia, the illegal immigrant, alleged MS-13 gang member, and suspected human smuggler, is living freely in Maryland, posting TikTok videos for the world to see. At the same time, federal authorities sit muzzled under a judicial gag order. 

The Salvadoran national, released from Immigration and Customs Enforcement custody in early December, created a new TikTok account and has posted at least two Spanish-language videos showing him lip-syncing to songs in what appears to be a suburban neighborhood. One video features him singing along to a track by Danny Berrios, an American singer known for Spanish Christian music, and has garnered nearly half a million views.

U.S. District Judge Waverly Crenshaw, appointed to the Tennessee federal bench by President Barack Obama, issued a gag order in October, ordering federal prosecutors to warn Department of Justice and DHS employees against making any statements he deemed prejudicial about Abrego Garcia. 

The order restricted federal officials from publicly using terms such as "gangbanger," "serial wife beater," or "human trafficker" to describe him while the case proceeds. Crenshaw recently canceled the criminal trial and scheduled a hearing for January 28, 2026 to determine whether the prosecution for human smuggling was vindictive.

Tricia McLaughlin, DHS Assistant Secretary, expressed frustration on X on Saturday over the absurdity of the situation.

"So we, at [the Department of Homeland Security] are under gag order by an activist judge and Kilmar Abrego Garcia is making TikToks," McLaughlin said.

"American justice ceases to function when its arbiters silence law enforcement and give megaphones to those who oppose our legal system," she added.

On December 11, 2025, U.S. District Court Judge Paula Xinis, another Obama appointee, ordered the immediate release of Abrego Garcia from ICE custody. Xinis cited the absence of a final removal order against him and stated that his removal could not be regarded as reasonably foreseeable, imminent, or in accordance with due process. "Since Abrego Garcia's improper [deportation] to El Salvador, he has been detained, again without lawful authority," Xinis wrote. She subsequently extended her temporary restraining order, which keeps Abrego Garcia out of federal custody through the Christmas holiday period.

In 2019, police in Maryland identified Abrego Garcia in official documents as affiliated with MS-13, one of the most violent street gangs in the world. Abrego Garcia was arrested in March 2019 at a Home Depot parking lot in Hyattsville, Maryland, where officers deemed him a member of MS-13 based on his clothing and other factors, including tattoos linking him to the gang. 

Court records also show that Abrego Garcia's wife, Jennifer Vasquez, filed temporary protective orders against him in August 2020 and May 2021. In the 2020 order, she said he verbally abused, kicked, slapped, and shoved her, took her phone, and locked her out of the house with her three kids inside. In the 2021 petition, she alleged he punched and scratched her, leaving her bleeding, and ripped off her shirt.

In 2022, during a Tennessee traffic stop, police caught Abrego Garcia driving a vehicle with eight passengers. Officers observed that none of the passengers had any luggage and that each gave Abrego Garcia's address as their own, and the car he was driving belonged to a known smuggler.

Earlier this year, federal prosecutors indicted Abrego Garcia on smuggling-related counts. The grand jury indictment alleges that while illegally in the U.S., Abrego Garcia made more than 100 trips across the country smuggling illegal migrants, and that he participated in a years-long human smuggling operation from 2016 to 2025. 

The indictment alleges that from about 2016 to 2025, Abrego Garcia and others conspired to bring migrants illegally to the United States from Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Ecuador and elsewhere, through Mexico and across the Texas-Mexico border.

Abrego Garcia and a co-conspirator “ordinarily picked up the undocumented aliens in Houston, Texas area” after they had crossed the border. The pair then allegedly would transport “the undocumented aliens from Texas to other parts of the United States to further the aliens’ unlawful presence in the United States,” the indictment said.

In the indictment, the government said Abrego Garcia and six other uncharged and unnamed co-conspirators communicated using cellphones and social media to unlawfully transport the undocumented immigrants.

They allege that Abrego Garcia would hold the cellphones of those he was transporting within the U.S. and would return them at the end of their trip, “they did this to ensure the undocumented aliens could not and would not contact anyone else during the trip,” the government said in the indictment.

Abrego Garcia has been locked in a legal battle with the Trump administration since his March 2025 deportation to El Salvador and subsequent return to the United States. Since his return in June, the government has pushed to deport him to various African countries, including Liberia, Uganda, Eswatini, and Ghana. His attorneys say he would accept deportation to Costa Rica, which has already guaranteed he could live there freely, but the government has made no apparent effort to pursue that option. Prosecutors continue to seek his permanent removal despite his release from ICE custody.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 10:40

Oh Crap: Over-The-Counter Medicines, Other Items Recalled Over Feces Contamination

Zero Hedge -

Oh Crap: Over-The-Counter Medicines, Other Items Recalled Over Feces Contamination

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) late last week announced that a distributor is recalling its FDA-regulated products because of the presence of bird and rodent feces at a Minneapolis facility.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration in White Oak, Md., on June 5, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Minneapolis-based Gold Star Distribution Inc. said on Dec. 26 that it’s recalling all of its FDA-regulated products including over-the-counter cold and flu medications, dietary supplements, pet foods, cosmetics, medical devices, and foods that were distributed in locations primarily in Minnesota.

The reason for the action is “potential Salmonella contamination, presence of rodent and avian contamination, and insanitary conditions during the storage process,” the FDA said in a description of the recall.

According to a statement from Gold Star, people who consume or handle the products may become ill because of “adulteration from pests, including rodents, birds and insects.” The FDA found that the company facilities harbored “rodent excreta, rodent urine, and bird droppings in areas where medical devices, drugs, human food, pet food, and cosmetic products were held.”

These conditions create a significant risk that products held at the facility may have been contaminated with filth and harmful microorganisms,” it said.

No illnesses have been reported so far, according to the FDA notice.

Health authorities say Salmonella infections may cause fever, diarrhea, nausea, vomiting, and stomach pain. Salmonella can sometimes enter the bloodstream, causing more significant illnesses such as endocarditis, arthritis, and arterial infections.

In rare cases, the bacterial infections can be fatal. Young children, older people, and individuals with compromised immune systems are particularly at risk of developing severe illness.

Officials also say that individuals who may be sick with the bacterial infection should call their health care provider right away if they have more severe symptoms, including a fever higher than 102 degrees Fahrenheit in combination with diarrhea, bloody diarrhea, or diarrhea for more than three days without signs of improvement

Other serious symptoms include excessive vomiting or signs of dehydration such as dry mouth, dry throat, less frequent urination, and feeling dizzy or lightheaded when standing. Antibiotics are often used to treat people with severe Salmonella infections, and patients with diarrhea are advised to drink more fluids.

Recall Includes Medication

The recalled products include over-the-counter cold and flu medications, according to the FDA and the company, including some Tylenol, Advil, Benadryl, DayQuil, NyQuil, Excedrin, Alka-Seltzer, and Motrin products.

A number of other products are affected by the recall. A full list of the items can be found on the FDA’s website.

People who have any questions can contact Gold Star at 612-617-9800 or report any adverse reactions to the FDA via its website.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 10:20

NAR: Pending Home Sales Increased 3.3% in November; Up 2.6% YoY

Calculated Risk -

From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 3.3% Increase in November
Pending home sales in October increased by 1.9% from the prior month and fell 0.4% year over year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Report. ...

Month-Over-Month
3.3% increase in pending home sales
Gains in all four regions

Year Over Year
2.6% increase in pending home sales
Gains in all four regions
emphasis added
Note: Contract signings usually lead sales by about 45 to 60 days, so this would usually be for closed sales in December and January.

Ilhan Omar's Husband's Venture Capital Firm Removes Names From Website Under Scrutiny

Zero Hedge -

Ilhan Omar's Husband's Venture Capital Firm Removes Names From Website Under Scrutiny

Authored by Bryan Jung via PJMedia.com,

A venture capital firm run by Rep. Ilhan Omar’s (D-Minn.) husband quietly scrubbed important names from its website, as the Minnesota congresswoman faces mounting questions on her sudden wealth amid a multi-billion Somali welfare fraud scheme in her district.

Rose Lake Capital, the $60 million dollar firm managed by Omar’s husband, political consultant Tim Mynett, deleted key officers from its website, including former Obama Administration officialsreported the New York Post in an exclusive.

The news comes as Somali communities across multiple states are currently facing scrutiny over dozens of similarly fraudulent schemes that have seen billions of taxpayer dollars flowing overseas, with some even going to jihadist terrorist groups in Somalia.

Nine billion dollars from Minnesota’s social services programs were illegally pocketed via scams mostly perpetrated by local members of the Somali community in Omar's congressional district, according to an investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice.

The Minnesota congresswoman, a member of the "the Squad" who was born in Somalia, is an outspoken figure on the far-left wing of the House Democratic caucus

Omar suspiciously went from holding tens of thousands in debt to earning tens of millions in a single year, not long after taking office in 2019 on a congressperson's annual salary of $174,000, the Washington Free Beacon reported in September. 

Her critics have recently pointed to the fact that she was the prime mover in introducing the federal legislation that enabled what the DOJ has called the largest fraud committed in the United States during the pandemic.

Minnesota’s Democrat governor and failed vice-presidential candidate Tim Walz is continuing to face criticism for his part in the mismanagement and alleged complicity in the debacle, as calls for federal charges against him grow louder.

The Somalia-born Omar introduced in 2020 the MEALS Act, which severely weakened oversight of government-sponsored children’s meals programs during the pandemic.

This allowed criminals to fraudulently claim that they served millions of meals without verification, while pocketing millions of dollars in government subsidies, say critics.

The $9 billion stolen is nearly equivalent to the entire economy of Somalia, whose GDP was under $12 billion last year, according to the World Bank.

The total losses accounts for roughly half of the $18 billion in total federal funds provided to the Minnesota-run services since 2018, say federal prosecutors.

Meanwhile, while one of the largest government subsidies frauds in American history was underway, Mynett launched Rose Lake Capital, his venture capital management firm, in 2022.

Mynett's firm saw its reported value skyrocket from less than $1,000 in 2023, to between $5 million and $25 million by the end of the year, despite its address remaining a WeWork office in Washington, D.C., according to its LinkedIn page.

Rose Lake Capital apparently was able to amass significant assets under management through its “deep global networks built from on-the-ground work in more than 80 countries,” an amount which is normally unheard of in the industry.

Her husband's other business, eStCru, was a failed California winery venture that has also faced fraud allegations and, strangely enough, was also listed as operating out of a WeWork office.

Mynett's winery, which was worth between $1 million and $5 million in 2024, agreed to an out-of-court settlement with a former investor in November who accused Omar's husband of swindling him out of $900,000, as he “fraudulently misrepresented … that estCru, LLC was a legitimate company.”

The winery was only worth between $15,000 and $50,000 in Omar’s financial disclosure report in 2022, making its 9,900%  earnings windfall the following year suspect, say critics.

About 90 Minnesotan Somalis have been arrested so far, including at least three suspects with direct ties to Omar, though she has not been charged.

“The magnitude cannot be overstated,” First Assistant U.S. Attorney Joe Thompson told reporters last week.

 “What we see in Minnesota is not a handful of bad actors committing crimes. It’s staggering, industrial-scale fraud," continued Thompson.

One of those charged was Salim Ahmed Said, the co-owner of Safari Restaurant in Minneapolis where Omar held her 2018 congressional victory party. He was convicted in federal court in August of stealing more than $12 million, the DOJ stated on its website.

Said received $12 million in federal payouts to serve 3.9 million meals to hungry children during the 2020 pandemic, but instead spent it on a $2 million mansion in Minneapolis and a $9,000 shopping spree at Nordstrom, said the feds.

President Donald Trump asked on his Truth Social account when the news of the allegations first broke: “Does Ilhan Omar know these people? Are they from her wonderfully managed Home Country of Somalia?”

“Somali gangs are terrorizing the people of that great state, and billions of dollars are missing. Send them back to where they came from,” the president added.

There is even a video on X of Omar praising Said at his restaurant, during the height of his scam, in front of reporters .

“Every day Safari provides 2,300 meals to children and their families,” Omar said in Somali while handing out food in front of the news cameras.

Another friend, Guhaad Hashi Said, who worked on the congresswoman's campaign in 2018 and 2020, also pleaded guilty in August for running a fake food site called Advance Youth Athletic Development, which was supposed to serve 5,000 meals a day to kids, but led to $3.2 million being diverted from the food program and into his pockets.

Omar's campaign received $7,400 in direct donations from the three convicted fraudsters, but the congresswoman who has publicly claimed to represent the interests of the people of Somalia now claims that she returned those donations since the scandal broke.

After federal prosecutors charged eight more suspects, mostly of Somali descent, between September and October for their participation in the subsidies fraud schemes, several names and bios of Rose Lake Capitals’s nine officers and advisors were removed from the firm's website. 

They included lobbyist and former Obama ambassador to Bahrain Adam Ereli; former Sen. Max Baucus, who served as Obama’s ambassador to China; DNC finance chair associate Alex Hoffman; former DNC treasurer William Derrough; and former Amalgamated Bank CEO Keith Mestrich.

Mestrich once boasted that Amalgamated was “the institutional bank of the Democratic Party.”  

None of these officers were charged in the fraud, according to the New York Post, which also noted that the Treasury and Justice Departments were already investigating alleged money laundering by Omar and Mynett.

Upon taking office in 2019, Omar declared a net worth of between negative $25,000 and negative $65,000, with no assets and only carrying student and car debt.

Her personal assets are now between $6 million to $30 million, according to her latest financial disclosure, despite dismissing claims that she is a millionaire as “ridiculous” and “categorically false.” 

“There’s a lot of strange things going on,” Paul Kamenar, counsel to the National Legal and Policy Center, told the New York Post. 

“She was basically broke when she came into office and now she’s worth perhaps up to $30 million.…She needs to come clean on these assets,” said Kamenar.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 09:00

Housing December 29th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 2.9% Week-over-week

Calculated Risk -

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.9% week-over-week.  
Note that Inventory usually bottoms seasonally in January or February.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Altos Year-over-year Home InventoryClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 13.1% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 13.5%), and down 6.0% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 5.7%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory and closed most of that gap, however inventory was still down 6% compared to 2019 at the end of the year.
Altos Home InventoryThis second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of December 26th, inventory was at 736 thousand (7-day average), compared to 758 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

One Year In, Trump's Economy Defies The Experts And Outpaces G7

Zero Hedge -

One Year In, Trump's Economy Defies The Experts And Outpaces G7

Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Epoch Times,

One year into Donald Trump’s new presidency, the verdict from the data is clear: the apocalyptic consensus forecasts have failed, and the United States stands as the only major developed economy combining strong growth, controlled inflation, and fiscal consolidation.

The same analysts and institutions that applauded massive stimulus, monetary excess, and regulatory overreach under the previous administration now struggle to explain why the economy they expected to sink into stagflation is instead outperforming all its G7 peers. Furthermore, the U.S. peers that embraced net-zero goals, big government, and high tax policies are now experiencing secular stagnation.

From the ‘Tariff Tantrum’ to a Global Surprise

When Trump announced his new wave of tariffs and trade policies, much of the global consensus rushed to predict a disaster. I called it the “tariff tantrum.” Commentators warned of an inflation surge beyond 2021 levels, 6 to 7 percent Treasury yields, collapsing investment, a recession, and global rejection of U.S. leadership in favor of supposedly more responsible European governments.

Twelve months later, none of those predictions has materialized. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen to 4.1 percent. The United States is the only G7 economy growing robustly, while nations that intensified hyperregulation, climate restrictions, high taxes, and government spending are stuck in stagnation despite the tailwind of low oil and gas prices.

The “tariff tantrum” never became the structural shock that critics warned of. Tariffs, though debatable, do not cause inflation because they do not add currency units to the economy; uncontrolled public spending and monetary excess do.

Growth, Investment, and a Rare Fiscal Adjustment

The performance of the U.S. economy in 2025 is extraordinary, not only in relative terms but also on its own merits. Real GDP is growing at approximately 3.8 percent, with the Atlanta Fed tracking around 3.5 percent annualized in the third quarter. Private investment is expanding at near double-digit rates. Crucially, this is happening while federal spending is being cut—public expenditure has fallen by about 3 percent over the year, avoiding the use of unproductive federal outlays to mask weak growth.

International institutions have revised their forecasts. The International Monetary Fund, which had projected much weaker performance, now expects U.S. growth of about 2.1 percent in 2026. Major research houses that previously forecast zero or negative growth have adjusted their 2025 outlooks to around 2.5 percent. Some economists now admit they misread the U.S. private sector’s resilience and overestimated the impact of tariffs.

This American expansion is not driven by a wave of debt-fueled political spending, but by private sector recovery, investment, trade, and productivity. Unlike other developed nations that responded to crises with more spending, debt, and regulation, the new U.S. approach is producing better results.

Inflation Under Control

The most surprising divergence from the consensus narrative is inflation. The same Keynesian analysts who saw no inflation risk in 2021—while government spending and the money supply surged—predicted that tariffs would push inflation beyond previous highs. Instead, the consumer price index (CPI) in November stands at about 2.7 percent, below the 3.0 percent expected and far from the predicted 6 to 7 percent spike.

Core inflation, excluding food and energy, is around 2.6 percent, down from late 2024. Over the 12 months to November, the all-items index rose by 2.7 percent, down from 3.0 percent the previous year. Independent estimates suggest actual inflation may be closer to 2.5 percent.

The lesson is clear: tariffs did not cause the global inflation spike; the combination of unchecked fiscal expansion and central banks monetizing deficits did. The U.S. experience in 2025 proves this again.

Deficit, Debt, and the Politics of Discipline

While many advanced economies face ballooning deficits and rising debt, the United States has achieved a rare combination of growth and fiscal consolidation. The federal deficit has declined by about 22 percent, from $2.07 trillion in November 2024 to approximately $1.6 trillion a year later. This is due to increased tax and trade revenues and spending cuts. As a share of GDP, the deficit dropped from 7.1 percent to an estimated 5.9 percent.

This is notable, given that 97 percent of the 2025 budget had already been allocated when the Trump administration took office. Trump has also enacted the largest tax cut in decades, reducing the tax wedge on families to below 30 percent, according to the Tax Foundation.

Despite inheriting a nearly fully committed budget, the administration cut federal outlays by 5.6 percent in the first quarter and 5.3 percent in the second. Public spending is down 3.1 percent for the first half of the year. An 8 percent reduction in federal spending is planned for 2026.

Federal debt, which stood at $36.22 trillion in January, has stabilized and ticked slightly down to $36.21 trillion. The debt-to-GDP ratio has fallen from roughly 122 percent to 120 percent.

Labor Market: Native Workers Improve as Govt and Immigration Shrink

The November employment report shows the best month for native private-sector employment since 2015. Real wages are up 0.8 percent year over year, with middle- and lower-income workers gaining about 1.4 percent. Net real wages after taxes are rising at the fastest pace in years.

Unemployment stands at 4.6 percent, lower than in Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, and the Eurozone.

Native employment has grown from 130.6 million in November 2024 to 133.3 million—an increase of 2.63 million jobs. Over the same period, foreign employment has declined by 21,000, and public-sector employment has dropped by 188,000.

Unlike Canada and Europe, where employment gains often involve subsidized public-sector jobs, the United States is achieving stronger private-sector gains through deregulation, tax cuts, and restrained public payrolls.

Trade Deals Have Been a Success

Rather than destroying America’s global trade position, Trump’s approach has reduced the trade deficit from $79.8 billion in November 2024 to about $52.8 billion in September 2025—a drop of nearly one-third.

Targeted tariffs, renegotiated trade agreements, and stronger domestic industry support have improved trade flows without triggering the inflation that many feared.

Other Improvements That Matter

The Trump administration has taken major steps on other fronts: banning central bank digital currencies, rolling back speech-restrictive regulations, advancing health care reform, and committing to scrap 10 regulations for every new one approved. In foreign policy, it has advocated for peace in Gaza, realistic resolutions in Ukraine, and support for democracy in Venezuela.

The message for conservatives and centrists in Europe and Latin America is clear: growth, jobs, and lower inflation require more than copying bureaucratic, high-tax models. Trump may not be a classical liberal, but his results demonstrate what a reform-minded conservative administration can accomplish.

The uncomfortable reality for many global policymakers is this: the United States has achieved what others only promised—stronger growth, lower inflation, smaller deficits, a healthier labor market, and early signs of debt stabilization. All of this has been accomplished not through expanding the state, but through deregulation, lower taxes, and private-sector empowerment.

Other advanced economies opted for more government, more debt, and climate and social agendas funded through taxes. They now face stagnation, even with favorable energy prices.

Trump’s new term does not guarantee future success. Risks remain. But the first year already poses a challenge to the Keynesian consensus. Had the United States followed the big-government, net-zero, high-tax path, its fiscal and economic situation would likely be far worse—as the United Kingdom’s example makes clear.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 07:20

Trump-Kennedy Center Hits Jazz Star with $1M Lawsuit For Backing Out Of Christmas Eve Show

Zero Hedge -

Trump-Kennedy Center Hits Jazz Star with $1M Lawsuit For Backing Out Of Christmas Eve Show

The Trump-Kennedy Center is pursuing a $1 million lawsuit against jazz musician Chuck Redd after he withdrew from his annual Christmas Eve concert at the last minute, citing the recent addition of President Trump's name to the venue. 

Redd, a drummer and vibraphone player who has performed with legends including Dizzy Gillespie and Ray Brown, had hosted the Christmas Eve Jazz Jam at the Kennedy Center since 2006. He took over the tradition from bassist William "Keter" Betts and maintained it for nearly two decades. This year marked an abrupt departure from that longstanding commitment.

"When I saw the name change on the Kennedy Center website and then hours later on the building, I chose to cancel our concert," Redd told The Associated Press. The decision came shortly after the venue was renamed when the board voted to honor Trump's role in what center officials describe as saving the national cultural institution, which had reportedly been in disrepair prior to Trump’s intervention.

Trump-Kennedy Center leadership characterized Redd’s 11th-hour cancellation as a politically motivated stunt that created a significant financial burden on the nonprofit arts institution.

Trump-Kennedy Center President Richard Grenell sent Redd a letter stating that the institution plans to seek damages for his decision to abandon his hosting duties, citing "partisan political reasons." 

"Your decision to withdraw at the last moment — explicitly in response to the Center's recent renaming, which honors President Trump's extraordinary efforts to save this national treasure — is classic intolerance and very costly to a non-profit Arts institution," Grenell wrote. He argued that Redd's move "surrenders to the sad bullying tactics employed by certain elements on the left, who have sought to intimidate artists into boycotting performances at our national cultural center."

The center's leadership suggests Redd's event had been struggling for some time. Grenell noted that attendance for the Jazz Jam had been "lagging considerably behind our other Christmas and holiday offerings." He drew a sharp contrast between the reception of Redd's programming and the venue’s success under new leadership.

"The contrast between the public's lack of interest in your show with the success we are experiencing under our new chairman is drastic," Grenell wrote. He maintained that "the most avant-garde and well-regarded performers in your genre will still perform regularly, and unlike you, they'll do it to sold out crowds regardless of their political leanings."

The Trump-Kennedy Center's position is that artists have a responsibility to perform for all audiences, regardless of political differences. Vice President of Public Relations Roma Daravi framed the issue in stark terms when speaking to The New York Post.

"Any artist cancelling their show at the Trump Kennedy Center over political differences isn't courageous or principled — they are selfish, intolerant, and have failed to meet the basic duty of a public artist: to perform for all people," Daravi explained. She added that the venue remains committed to presenting diverse programming that transcends political divisions.

"Art is a shared cultural experience meant to unite, not exclude," Daravi added. "The Trump-Kennedy Center is a true bipartisan institution that welcomes artists and patrons from all backgrounds — great art transcends politics, and America's cultural center remains committed to presenting popular programming that inspires and resonates with all audiences."

The lawsuit represents a significant escalation in the ongoing tensions between some artists and the renamed venue. While the center has seen considerable success with other programming during the holiday season, Redd's last-minute cancellation left organizers scrambling and attendees disappointed on what is traditionally one of the most celebrated nights of the year for the center.

The legal action signals that the Trump-Kennedy Center is prepared to hold artists accountable when contractual obligations are abandoned for political reasons. Whether other performers will take note of this hardline stance remains to be seen. 

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 06:55

10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

The week between Christmas and New Year’s Eve Monday morning reads:

Charles Schwab CEO Explains Why Investing Works—and Gambling Doesn’t. Rick Wurster, Charles Schwab CEO,  says the firm manages $11.8 trillion in assets across 46 million client accounts, serving both retail and independent advisors. Schwab is attracting younger investors, with one in six new clients being Gen Z and 60% of new-to-firm clients under 40 years old, he said. Wurster says Schwab plans to launch spot crypto trading in 2026. (Barron’s)

Data shows the ‘Made in USA’ brand still suffered under tariffs: Fewer shoppers are return customers of ‘Made in USA’ products. That’s because it still sends the wrong brand signal: expensive. (Fast Company) see also US Trade Dominance Will Soon Begin to Crack: Savvy countries will discover there’s a way to mitigate the harm incurred by Trump’s tariffs—and it’ll boost their own economies while making goods cheaper too. (Wired)

Family Offices Have Become the New Power Players on Wall Street: Wealthy families are launching offices to manage their money at a record clip and are getting a seat at the table in significant deals. (Wall Street Journal)

The boomer-doomer divide within OpenAI, explained by Karen Hao: There are two sides to the AI debate, and both are perpetuating the idea that AI is “inevitable, all-powerful, and deserves to be controlled by a tiny group of people,” says the Empire of AI author. (Big Think)

After three decades of pretty constant growth, the consultancy boom just hit an AI-shaped wall: A partnership with AI may be good for consultants looking to decorate their LinkedIn profiles with AI badges, but it also reflects a deep shift within the industry, as the traditional model built on adding more people to bill for long hours begins to unwind. (Sherwood)

The Sleeper Issue That Could Destroy the Economy: Trump may have stopped threatening Jerome Powell—but he’s still got designs to control the Fed. (The Bulwark) see also Historic Shift Underway in China’s Economy as Investment Slump Deepens: Investment in manufacturing, infrastructure and property is expected to fall this year, a remarkable turn for an economy whose growth reshaped the world. (New York Times)

Societies with Little Money Are among the Happiest on Earth: Wealth and well-being go together in many studies, but certain communities complicate this link. (Scientific American)

Trump’s Own Mortgages Match His Description of Mortgage Fraud:  The Trump administration has argued that Fed board member Lisa Cook may have committed mortgage fraud by declaring more than one primary residence on her loans. We found Trump once did the very thing he called “deceitful and potentially criminal.” (ProPublica)

4 surprising, proven rules to avoid getting sick this winter: We all know the basics of avoiding winter bugs, but science is uncovering lesser-known tricks that make a real difference. (BBC Science Focus Magazine)

Jack Black and Paul Rudd: ‘I had a traumatic experience when I was a kid’ Hollywood’s comedy kings talk about the movies that shaped them and joining forces for Anaconda, a satire about a giant snake. (The Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with comedian Jay Leno, former Tonight Show host, and creator of Jay Leno’s Garage.

 

Stocks are spending less time in the S&P 500

Source: TKer

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Global Persecution Of Christians Has Greatly Intensified In 2025

Zero Hedge -

The Global Persecution Of Christians Has Greatly Intensified In 2025

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

While Christians in the western world peacefully celebrate Christmas, most of them have absolutely no idea what is happening to their brothers and sisters on the other side of the globe.  As I detailed a couple of months ago, most of the population of the world lives in a country where Christians are being violently persecuted.  Believers are being rounded up for de-programming in China, churches are being burned to the ground by Hindu extremists in India, Christians are literally being cut into pieces by Islamic radicals in some parts of Africa, practicing your faith can be a death sentence in certain areas of the Middle East, and North Korean concentration camps are teeming with people that are suspected of worshipping Christ.  Perhaps if we were facing similar levels of persecution, believers in the western world would start becoming a lot more serious about their faith.

More than a billion people live in China, and the persecution of Christians in that nation has gone to an entirely different level in 2025.

Earlier this month, over a thousand law enforcement personnel were involved in a massive operation that ultimately resulted in the arrest of hundreds of Christians

Starting on Dec. 13, the Chinese Communist Party mobilized “more than a thousand police officers, SWAT units, anti-riot forces, and firefighters” in the Zhejiang Province’s Yayang Town in Wenzhou City, raiding churches and conducting mass arrests of Christians, ChinaAid reported Friday.

“Belongings of relevant individuals were illegally confiscated, roads leading to the church were completely blocked by police, and Christians in Yayang Town were unable to enter the Yayang church. The operation lasted nearly five days, yet no public statement was issued by officials,” the outlet noted. “Within just the first two days, several hundreds of people were taken away for questioning. On December 16 and 17, at least four more individuals were detained.”

Restrictions on the Christian faith in China just keep getting tighter and tighter.

Nobody under the age of 18 is permitted to go to church.

Those that are adults are only allowed to go to churches that are officially registered with the government.

Anyone that attempts to defy these rules is at risk of being rounded up and forcibly “de-programmed”

The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF) and other religious liberty watchdogs have repeatedly warned that China’s totalitarian regime is enacting human rights abuses against religious groups within the nation’s border. A USCIRF report late last year detailed mass arrests and the destruction or removal of church property, part of CCP President Xi Jinping’s “sinicization of religion” policy. Religious groups and leaders who do not register with the official government-approved religious organizations are often arrested, imprisoned, and forced into “anti-cult” programs to “de-program” Christians.

In India, it is Hindu extremists that are doing the persecuting.

They have literally burned down hundreds of churches in recent years.

In other instances, mobs of Hindu extremists storm churches and start attacking those that are worshipping.

Earlier this year, I wrote about a mob of 200 extremists that stormed a church and beat the believers they found with iron rods.

More recently, an extremist mob in northern India viciously assaulted a small group of believers and forced them to burn a large pile of Bibles and Christian literature

The Hindu extremists, whose number had then reached 80, searched their car, pulled out all Bibles and tracts and cast them onto the ground into a heap. They shot videos that showed the two couples, disoriented and in shock, forced to repeat that they intended “conversion” in the village and that they would never return.

The mob kicked the Bibles and spoke disrespectfully about Christ, Masih said.

Pastor Das was forced to write a letter of apology that the video shows in his hand. A member of the mob then took a bottle of flammable liquid from the hands of a boy standing with the mob and forced three of the Christians to sprinkle it on the Bibles and literature. After forcing Pastor Das to set the Bibles on fire, the mob then shouted praises to the Hindu god Rama.

In Nigeria, thousands upon thousands of Christians have been slaughtered this year alone.

President Trump had warned that he would do something about the Islamic terrorists that are doing the slaughtering, and on Christmas Day he took action

President Trump said Thursday that the U.S. launched “powerful and deadly” strikes against Islamic State forces in Nigeria, after spending weeks accusing the West African country’s government of failing to rein in the persecution of Christians.

“Tonight, at my direction as Commander in Chief, the United States launched a powerful and deadly strike against ISIS Terrorist Scum in Northwest Nigeria, who have been targeting and viciously killing, primarily, innocent Christians, at levels not seen for many years, and even Centuries!” Mr. Trump wrote on his social media platform Truth Social. “I have previously warned these Terrorists that if they did not stop the slaughtering of Christians, there would be hell to pay, and tonight, there was.”

Hopefully this will do something to reduce the violence.

So far in 2025, Islamic terrorists in Nigeria have killed over 12,000 people

The violence in the northwest region, where the strikes occurred, is driven in large part by armed bandits and gangs kidnapping for ransom. The insurgency is concentrated in the northeast, where jihadist groups like the notorious Boko Haram and its now more powerful splinter, the Islamic State West Africa Province, an affiliate of the Islamic State group, have killed tens of thousands of civilians over the past decade.

Nigeria is not officially at war, but more people are killed there than in most war-torn countries. More than 12,000 people were killed by various violent groups this year alone, according to Armed Conflict Location and Event Data, a conflict monitoring group.

Collectively, more than three billion people live in the three nations that I have already mentioned in this article.

But the persecution that is going on in smaller countries such as North Korea and Eritrea is even worse

Henrietta Blyth, CEO of Open Doors U.K. and Ireland, previously told Newsweek: “The persecution of Christians around the world is one of the great untold scandals of the 21st Century… It can take many forms: in North Korea, it may be a summary public execution without trial, merely for owning a Bible. In Eritrea, it can be 10 years spent in a blazing hot prison cell made from a metal shipping container, merely for belonging to an unregistered house church.”

According to Open Doors, North Korea is the number one global offender when it comes to Christian persecution, and Eritrea is number four

  • North Korea
  • Somalia
  • Libya
  • Eritrea
  • Yemen
  • Nigeria
  • Pakistan
  • Sudan
  • Iran
  • Afghanistan
  • Central African Republic
  • Mauritania
  • Myanmar
  • Mali
  • Syria
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Maldives
  • China
  • Algeria
  • Tunisia
  • Morocco
  • Burkina Faso
  • Turkey
  • Cuba
  • Niger
  • Ethiopia
  • Laos
  • Tajikistan
  • Qatar
  • Egypt
  • Brunei
  • Jordan
  • Oman
  • United Arab Emirates
  • Colombia
  • Democratic Republic of Congo
  • Mozambique
  • Bangladesh
  • Vietnam
  • Bhutan
  • Kazakhstan
  • Kuwait
  • Malaysia
  • Indonesia
  • Kyrgyzstan
  • Russia
  • Sri Lanka
  • Western Sahara
  • Kosovo
  • Bahrain

I was amazed to see that there are 17 nations that rank ahead of China, because China has become a Big Brother police state on steroids.

Perhaps China ranks lower than some of the others because instead of just killing them, the Chinese round Christians up and simply make them “disappear”.

The good news is that persecution often makes the Christian faith grow rapidly, and we are seeing this happen in many areas of the globe.

In fact, it appears that we could actually use some serious persecution here in the United States, because what we are experiencing at this moment is being described as “the great unchurching”

The U.S. is undergoing its fastest religious shift in modern history, marked by a rapid increase in the religiously unaffiliated and numerous church closures nationwide.

Why it matters: The great unchurching of America comes as identity and reality are increasingly shaped by non-institutional spiritual sources — YouTube mystics, TikTok tarot, digital skeptics, folk saints and AI-generated prayer bots.

When you are facing the fire of persecution, what you do or don’t believe suddenly becomes very clear.

Throughout human history, tyrants have tried and failed to stamp out the Christian faith.

The same thing is true in our time.

Countless believers are choosing imprisonment or death rather than choosing to deny Christ.

If you were faced with the same choice, what would you choose?

You might want to think about that, because the global persecution of Christians is only going to intensify during the very challenging years that are ahead of us.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/29/2025 - 06:30

Prediction Consensus: What The Experts See Coming In 2026

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Prediction Consensus: What The Experts See Coming In 2026

For the seventh straight year, Visual Capitalist sifted through the forecast landscape to bring you the Prediction Consensus, a synthesis of what analysts, thought leaders, and industry experts expect for the year ahead.

This year, Nick Routley analyzed over 2,000 individual predictions from a wide variety of sources including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, the IMF, The Economist, Deloitte, Microsoft, Gartner, and dozens more.

By mapping where these forecasts overlap, we’ve distilled the noise into 25 high-conviction themes displayed in our “Bingo Card” format, with the number of dabs reflecting the volume of supporting predictions.

To get the full analysis of the Prediction Consensus and to see what’s ahead for 2026, become a member of VC+ or purchase the full Global Forecast Series report and package.

The General Vibe of 2026

If 2025 was a year of adjustment - markets recalibrating to higher rates, geopolitics reshuffling around a second Trump administration and tariffs, and AI moving from hype to deployment - then 2026 is shaping up as a year of consolidation and consequence.

The consensus mood is cautiously optimistic but shot through with uncertainty. Morgan Stanley describes 2026 as “The Year of Risk Reboot,” a period where market focus shifts from macro anxieties to micro fundamentals, creating fertile ground for risk assets. The policy backdrop is unusually supportive: fiscal stimulus, continued (if slower) monetary easing, and deregulation form what analysts call a “policy triumvirate” rarely seen outside of recessions.

Yet The Economist strikes a more sober tone, warning that 2026 will be defined by uncertainty as Trump’s reshaping of geopolitical norms continues to ripple worldwide. The old rules-based order is drifting further, and the line between war and peace grows ever more blurred through gray-zone provocations, cyber incursions, and an ambient rivalry between nations.

In short: risk assets may thrive, but the world beneath them remains turbulent.

AI: Once Again, the Big Story

For the third consecutive year, artificial intelligence dominates the prediction landscape, but the narrative has evolved. Where 2024 forecasts centered on whether AI hype was justified and 2025 focused on deployment at scale, the 2026 conversation is about integration and consequences.

From Tool to Partner

Across industries, AI is moving beyond answering questions to actively collaborating with people and amplifying their expertise.

This is the year of the agentic AI build-out. Deloitte predicts that by year-end 2026, as many as 75% of companies may be investing in agentic AI (autonomous systems that can plan, act, and adapt with limited human oversight). These AI agents are set to become “digital colleagues,” helping small teams punch above their weight. Microsoft envisions a future where a three-person marketing team can launch a global campaign in days, with AI handling data crunching and content generation while humans steer strategy.

After years of anticipation, productivity gains from AI are finally expected to materialize in measurable ways. Morgan Stanley points to AI-driven efficiency as one of six key drivers of their bullish earnings outlook. Software and internet companies are expected to see generative AI revenue grow more than 20-fold over the next three years.

Of course, AI will impact the job market in other ways as well. Professional and knowledge-worker classes that previously felt insulated are now beginning to feel anxiety around job security.

Market Predictions: Riding the AI Wave

Conveniently, AI also dominates the market story. The consensus is unmistakably bullish, though tempered by valuation concerns and awareness of concentration risks.

S&P 500: Double-Digit Gains Expected

Wall Street strategists are clustered in a tight range for year-end 2026 S&P 500 targets:

 

The bull case from JPMorgan sees the index potentially topping 8,000 if the Fed eases more than expected. Morgan Stanley calls it their most bullish outlook in years, driven by returning operating leverage, AI efficiency gains, accommodative tax and regulatory policy, and contained interest rates.

Importantly, analysts expect earnings to do the heavy lifting in 2026. Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian projects 14% EPS growth but notes that P/E multiples may actually contract by 10 points, meaning the market climbs a wall of valuation skepticism. Morgan Stanley forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $317 in 2026 (17% growth).

Gold’s Super-Cycle Continues

Gold remains a favorite. Morgan Stanley targets $4,500 per ounce—about 9% upside from current levels. The World Gold Council notes that gold achieved over 50 all-time highs in 2025 and may post its fourth-strongest annual return since 1971.

The drivers are structural: central bank buying, geopolitical hedging, and concerns about fiscal sustainability. In a “doom loop” scenario of accelerating fiscal deterioration, gold could surge 15-30% from current levels.

Economic Predictions: Soft Landing, With Caveats

The IMF projects global growth at 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026—below the pre-pandemic average of 3.7% but not recessionary. Morgan Stanley expects similar numbers: 3.0% global growth in 2025, 3.2% in 2026 and 2027.

Advanced economies are expected to grow around 1.5-1.6%, while emerging markets hold above 4%. The consensus is a soft landing: growth moderates, inflation continues its gradual descent, and central banks ease policy—but not aggressively.

The “Higher for Longer” Era Fades

Central bank policy is expected to continue normalizing. Morgan Stanley’s base case has the Fed cutting to 3.0-3.25% by mid-year and then pausing for an extended period. The BoE is expected to bring rates to 2.75% before pausing. The ECB, facing below-target inflation and sluggish growth, may cut further than markets currently price.

Japan remains the outlier: the only major developed market central bank potentially hiking, with the BoJ expected to reach 0.75% by December before pausing.

Geopolitical & Trade Predictions: Tariffs and Tensions Tariffs Become the New Normal

Perhaps no theme generates more consensus than this: the tariff regime is here to stay. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are bringing in close to $300 billion in revenue annually, and while they may face legal challenges (Barclays expects the Supreme Court to deem them illegal), the effective tariff rate has peaked at 12.1%—the highest since 1934.

The economic impact is being absorbed more gracefully than many feared. UBS expects a “soft patch” in early 2026 as tariffs affect U.S. prices, followed by a broadening and strengthening of growth from Q2 onward. But the structural shift is profound: trade may reroute permanently, supply chains are diversifying, and the U.S. is explicitly using tariffs as a tool of economic leverage.

China Leans on Exports and Manufacturing

Facing deflation, a property crisis, and slowing domestic growth, China is pivoting to manufacturing and export dominance. The country is positioning itself as a more reliable partner, particularly in the Global South, striking trade agreements as the U.S. retreats from multilateralism.

Morgan Stanley expects China’s real GDP to expand 5% in 2026, helped by front-loaded government support. But the strategy creates global tensions: industrial overcapacity could flood world markets, and tariff battles may intensify.

Gray-Zone Provocations Increase

The Economist warns that Russia and China will test American commitment to allies through “gray-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea. Tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor, and in cyberspace.

This “ambient rivalry” short of outright war but beyond normal peacetime friction is expected to accelerate. Great-power competition will increasingly involve space-based intelligence, drone technology, and AI-powered cyber operations.

Assessing the Consensus

History teaches humility about forecasting. Previous years have contained unforeseen developments, and there’s no reason to expect 2026 to unfold precisely as consensus expects.

What’s valuable isn’t the specific predictions, but themes where informed observers are concentrating their attention. Examples include the transition from AI experimentation to building out infrastructure to support its widespread use. Or stablecoins becoming mainstream financial instruments.

Some of these themes will prove accurate; others will be derailed by events. But taken together, they sketch the landscape that institutions, investors, and policymakers are navigating as they position for the year ahead.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/28/2025 - 21:35

The Good News Is People Are Realizing We're On Our Own

Zero Hedge -

The Good News Is People Are Realizing We're On Our Own

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

We no longer care who's behind the curtain because we're in charge of our own lives now.

The Good News is people are realizing We're On Our Own and starting to take action accordingly.

This article describes how people in one low-income county are localizing self-reliance rather than remain dependent on government subsidies.

The War on Poverty Failed Them--and They're No Longer Waiting For Help (wsj.com, paywalled) Federal money and projects have come and gone so many times that McDowell County locals have little faith in the government to restore their fortunes; 'We're on our own.'

Here in the heart of America's War on Poverty, some two-thirds of households with children still get food stamps, among the nation's highest rates, and the estimated median household income hovers around $35,000. Nonfarm employment has plummeted 78% since 1975, according to data compiled by West Virginia University economist John Deskins, as the coal that once powered this rugged place is now mostly mined with machines, if at all, and no other industry has replaced it. The county has lost 67% of its residents over those years, the largest drop in West Virginia, its population dwindling from just over 51,000 to roughly 17,000.

With little faith left in government to break the cycle of poverty, those who remain say it'ss up to them to forge a brighter economic path.

"We're on our own," said Jason Tartt. "Nobody's coming down here to save us."

Tartt, the grandson of coal miners, is teaching locals, including retired miners and those recovering from opioid addiction, how to farm the forested hillsides. Down the winding, two-lane roads that connect communities, a pastor organizes bottled-water drives for neighbors whose tap water is undrinkable, while the local utility patches together funding for long-term solutions. A tiny, former coal town is trying to transform a shuttered Walmart into a new factory it hopes will jolt the local economy.

Their efforts are small in comparison to the government programs that have sought to revive McDowell County, and can't make up for the prosperity that slipped away when the coal companies left. But they are spurring hope for renewal in some places, driven by one of the few constants here: resilience.

Nobody includes not just the federal government; it also includes Corporate America. Walmart pulls the plug on under-performing stores regardless of their local importance, and the rest of Corporate America is equally focused on next quarter's profits.

Dependence breeds helplessness, passivity, addiction and the decay of community. There are alternatives. Those seeking to maintain the status quo dismiss alternatives that don't require Wall Street, federal monies and Corporate America ownership because those institutions are buttering their bread.

But out in the real world, there are alternatives--underfunded, dismissed as impractical, etc., but real nonetheless, for example: Regenerative Farmers of America (6:19 minutes) (via Chad D.)

As I observe in my book on Self-Reliance in the 21st Century, we all have to start somewhere, and as the Chinese saying put it, the journey of a thousand miles starts with the first step. (A thousand li in the original, of course.)

Self-reliance sounds like an individual journey, but it's fundamentally a community effort as no one person can fulfill every function. As the number of people participating expands, the self-reliance of each participant expands, too.

Those working on self-reliance tend to lead by example. Get the work done, share the results, keep moving forward. There's no jetting around to meetings and conferences, just do the work on the ground. Get it done, learn from mistakes and from others' experiences, experiment to identify what works best in local conditions.

When we realize we really are on our own, things change for the better. We start taking full responsibility for our health, work, goals and integrity. We start thinking through Plans A, B, and if things unravel, Plan C. We lose interest in addictive technologies and substances and other hindrances. We start noticing improvements and taking well-earned pride in them.

We no longer care who's behind the curtain because we're in charge of our own lives now.

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free). Check out my updated Books and FilmsBecome a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.comSubscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/28/2025 - 21:00

New Orleans Has The Highest Homicide Rate Among Major US Cities

Zero Hedge -

New Orleans Has The Highest Homicide Rate Among Major US Cities

Across the United States, there were 22,830 homicides in 2023, averaging 6.8 deaths per 100,000 people.

Homicide rates vary widely across American cities, influenced by factors such as poverty, inequality, gun laws, and local policing strategies.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows the top 40 U.S. cities by their homicide rate per 100,000 residents and the total number of homicides, based on the latest reported data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Where Homicide Rates Are Highest in America

Cities in the South and Midwest tend to show higher homicide rates, reflecting a combination of economic stress, structural inequality, and regional differences in firearm access and enforcement.

The table below ranks the top 40 U.S. cities by homicide rate:

Rank Major City State Homicides per 100,000 people Total Homicides 1 New Orleans LA 46 166 2 Memphis TN 41 372 3 St. Louis MO 38 106 4 Baltimore MD 36 205 5 Washington, DC DC 36 244 6 Birmingham AL 28 187 7 Philadelphia PA 26 402 8 Kansas City MO 25 182 9 Richmond VA 23 53 10 Indianapolis IN 22 211 11 Milwaukee WI 21 190 12 Louisville KY 19 146 13 Cleveland OH 18 220 14 Detroit MI 17 304 15 Norfolk VA 17 40 16 Atlanta GA 16 175 17 Chicago IL 16 805 18 Jacksonville FL 15 153 19 Nashville TN 15 103 20 Dallas TX 12 319 21 Columbus OH 12 159 22 Houston TX 11 540 23 Denver CO 11 77 24 San Antonio TX 10 218 25 Cincinnati OH 10 83 26 New York City (The Bronx) NY 9 128 27 Rochester NY 9 69 28 Las Vegas NV 9 207 29 Portland OR 9 70 30 Oakland CA 8 136 31 Oklahoma City OK 8 66 32 Phoenix AZ 7 337 33 Pittsburgh PA 8 98 34 Charlotte NC 8 90 35 Orlando FL 7 104 36 Minneapolis MN 7 88 37 Los Angeles CA 7 659 38 Miami FL 7 176 39 Newark NJ 7 56 40 Virginia Beach VA 6 29

New Orleans ranks first, with a homicide rate of 46 per 100,000 people. Memphis and St. Louis follow closely, each reporting rates above 38 per 100,000. While these cities have a relatively low number of total homicides, their small population sizes place them among the most violent cities in the country.

In terms of total homicides, Chicago ranks first with more than 800 homicides, followed by Los Angeles and Houston. Despite the high totals, these cities have relatively lower rates due to their large populations.

Many Southern and Western states with high homicide rates also rank highly in gun-related deaths per 100,000 people, reflecting a combination of firearm availability, gun ownership rates, and broader socioeconomic challenges.

If you found this infographic interesting, see this graphic on America’s Most Dangerous Cities on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/28/2025 - 20:25

Rewind Your Age Naturally: The Secret Lies In 6 Superfoods

Zero Hedge -

Rewind Your Age Naturally: The Secret Lies In 6 Superfoods

Authored by JoJo Novaes & Arthur Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Can you imagine rewinding your biological clock by more than two years in just eight weeks, simply by adjusting your diet and lifestyle? It might be possible.

Illustration by The Epoch Times/Shutterstock

A study published in Aging found that foods rich in methylated adaptogens significantly reduced epigenetic age. In an eight-week randomized controlled trial, male participants aged 50 to 72 who adopted a methylation-focused diet experienced a decrease in epigenetic age of 2.04 years from baseline. Meanwhile, the control group aged forward by an average of 1.10 years, creating a gap of 3.14 years between the two groups.

Even after accounting for weight changes or baseline epigenetic ages, the results remained strong, indicating that these foods directly influence aging markers.

Epigenetic age reveals how old your cells appear, with DNA methylation patterns serving as a window into cellular aging.

Nutritionist Tsai Yi-fang from Taiwan’s Keyi Nutrition Consultation Center told The Epoch Times on the “Health 1+1” program that methylation is like a toggle switch for your DNA. If you add a methyl group, a gene’s function might shut off; if you remove one, that function flips on. For instance, heavy methylation of tumor suppressor genes could impair their ability to suppress cancer. On the flip side, low methylation of inflammation genes can ramp up your body’s inflammatory response.

Striking the right balance is key—too much or too little methylation can spell trouble.

Top 6 Anti-Aging Superfoods

The study highlights six foods—turmeric, rosemary, garlic, berries, green tea, and oolong tea—that are rich in phytochemicals called methyl adaptogens. These compounds fine-tune DNA methylation, keeping genes in a healthy state and lowering disease risk. Each food also brings unique benefits:

  • Turmeric: Packed with curcumin, a potent antioxidant and anti-inflammatory compound that supports liver health and is especially effective for improving non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.
  • Berries: Loaded with anthocyanins and vitamin C, berries boast exceptional antioxidant power. Bilberries enhance eye health, grapes support cardiovascular wellness, and cranberries promote urinary tract health.
  • Garlic: With antibacterial, antiviral, and immune-regulating properties, garlic strengthens overall health and helps manage conditions such as small intestinal bacterial overgrowth.
  • Rosemary: Rich in rosmarinic acid, a powerful antioxidant and anti-inflammatory compound that can relieve headaches, stomach pain, nervous tension, and improve mood and memory.
  • Green Tea and Oolong Tea: Both are rich in catechins and polyphenols, providing robust antioxidant and anti-inflammatory benefits.
The Epoch Times Additional Methylation-Regulating Foods

In addition to the six foods highlighted in the study, Tsai noted additional foods that regulate methylation:

Beets: Rich in betaine and folate, beets act as methyl donors, supporting methylation regulation in the body, particularly beneficial for people with low methylation levels.

Quinoa: Similar to beets, quinoa is a source of betaine, which provides methyl groups to support a healthy methylation cycle.

Cruciferous Vegetables: Such as broccoli, kale, bok choy, and cabbage, contain high levels of sulforaphane, which influences methylation patterns by regulating DNA methyltransferases (a large family of enzymes) and supports liver detoxification.

Spinach: A leafy green high in folate, spinach also contains magnesium and vitamin B6, essential nutrients for the methylation cycle. Additionally, it provides antioxidants that protect DNA from external damage.

Avocado: Beyond being rich in folate and vitamin B6, avocados contain healthy fatty acids that support brain function and methylation regulation, as well as high levels of glutathione, which aids liver detoxification.

Mushrooms: Mushrooms are packed with vitamins and contain ergothioneine, an antioxidant that protects methyltransferases from oxidative damage.

The Epoch Times Methylation-Regulating Herbs

Beyond food, certain herbs also possess methylation-regulating and anti-aging properties, such as Rhodiola rosea and Ashwagandha. However, it’s essential to consult a doctor before taking herbs to ensure they are suitable for your constitution, as improper use may harm health.

Rhodiola Rosea: Balances stress hormones, supports mitochondrial methylation activity, and may protect brain tissue from oxidative stress. Clinical trials have shown that Rhodiola rosea can help alleviate physical and mental symptoms associated with stress and overexertion.

Ashwagandha: Rich in withanolides and alkaloids, Ashwagandha may influence methylation by modulating stress response.

The Epoch Times Unhealthy Habits That Hasten Aging

Alongside eating beneficial foods, steering clear of habits that hasten aging is just as vital, Tsai said.

  • Chronic Sleep Deprivation and Late Nights: Regularly staying up late or insufficient sleep increases oxidative stress, which damages DNA and proteins, speeding up the aging process.
  • Chronic Stress: Persistent stress contributes to bodily damage and accelerates the aging process.
  • Lack of Exercise or Overexertion: A sedentary lifestyle or excessive exercise can increase oxidative stress, promoting premature aging.
Foods to Avoid
  • Foods High in Sugar: A diet high in sugar fuels glycation, generating harmful advanced glycation end-products that contribute to the aging process.
  • Processed Foods: Often laden with nitrites and other carcinogenic substances, processed foods can harm cellular health and increase aging markers.
  • Artificial Sweeteners: Disrupt the gut microbiome, potentially causing metabolic imbalances that contribute to aging.
Choosing High-Quality Carbohydrates

Tsai noted the crucial role of high-quality carbohydrates in supporting healthy aging. According to the Nurses’ Health Study, which analyzed dietary data from 47,513 women, long-term intake of nutrient-dense carbohydrates—such as fruits, vegetables, whole grains, and legumes—was linked to improved health in older age. These foods offer key benefits:

  • Nutrient-Dense: Rich in dietary fiber, vitamins, and minerals, they support overall wellness and vitality.
  • Low-Glycemic Index: Helps maintain stable blood sugar levels, preventing spikes that can accelerate aging.
  • Anti-Inflammatory Effects: Reduces inflammation, a major contributor to age-related diseases.
Nutritionist’s Secrets to Youthful Vitality

Tsai shared her proven strategies for maintaining a vibrant, youthful glow through simple, sustainable lifestyle choices:

  • Consistent Exercise: Tsai runs twice a week for an hour, alternating fast and slow paces to keep her metabolism humming. Whether it’s cardio or strength training, she recommends choosing an exercise you enjoy and can maintain consistently for long-term benefits.
  • Robust Sun Protection: To protect against aging UV rays, Tsai advises using sunscreen and wearing sunglasses during midday or afternoon outings. In polluted urban areas, she recommends wearing a mask to block harmful fine particles that can damage health.
  • Clean, Light Eating: Even with frequent meals out, Tsai ensures home-cooked dishes are light and wholesome, allowing her body space to detoxify and rejuvenate.
  • Stress Reduction: Chronic stress is a silent accelerator of aging. By scheduling time for relaxation and learning to adapt to stress, Tsai nurtures both mental and physical well-being.

Reversing the clock doesn’t require costly supplements. The true secret lies in daily habits: savor antioxidant-rich, gene-regulating foods, pair them with regular exercise, ample sleep, and stress relief, and keep a positive mindset. Begin now to cultivate lasting vitality!

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/28/2025 - 19:50

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