The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 39, up from 38 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 39 in December.

Here are the readings for the three HMI indices in December:

• Current sales conditions increased one point to 42.

• Sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 52.

• Traffic of prospective buyers held steady at 26.

In a further sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 40% of builders reported cutting prices in December, marking the second consecutive month the share has been at 40% or higher since May 2020. It was 41% in November. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in December, down from the 6% rate in November. The use of sales incentives was 67% in December, the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

The index has been below 50 for twenty consecutive months.

The post Healthcare Is Hard, Lying Republicans Make It Harder appeared first on CEPR.

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 13.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 15.3%), and down 5.6% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 4.1%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed most of that gap, however inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of December 12th, inventory was at 775 thousand (7-day average), compared to 795 thousand the prior week.  
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

My off-to-vacation morning plane reads:

• The Concentration Bears Have Steered You Wrong: This consistently misguided argument against staying invested is looking dumber than ever. (Downtown Josh Brown)

• Tesla is the most unreliable used car brand in America, even behind Jeep and Chrysler: Older Teslas rank dead last in Consumer Reports study, but newer models show improvement (Techspot) see also Tesla’s Cybertruck is turning 2. It’s been a big flop. CEO Elon Musk once described the Cybertruck as Tesla’s ‘best ever’ product. But demand for the controversial pickup truck has dried up. (Marketwatch)

• Great Income Squeeze Begins as Fed Spells End to Easy Yields. The days of easy returns for income investors are vanishing as the Federal Reserve is cutting rates, dragging yields down from their post-pandemic highs. Conventional alternatives, such as corporate bonds and global equities, look richly priced, leaving less cushion and fewer obvious paths forward for income-focused portfolios. Investors are looking to alternative investments: high yield, emerging-market debt, and private credit. (Bloomberg free)

• Why It’s a Tough Time for House-Flippers: It seems like a pretty easy way to get rich quick. But for every success story, there are many tales of flips gone bad. (Wall Street Journal)

• How Japan Built a Rare-Earth Supply Chain Without China: The 15-year effort by Japan is a model for countries now scrambling to reduce their dependence on Beijing’s critical metals. (New York Times)

• New York’s Golden Handcuffs: Why the City Has a Special Hold on the Rich: Of the world’s 500 wealthiest people, 23 call New York City home, with a combined net worth of nearly $450 billion, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, and many more come through town as often as time and their tax situations allow. Depleting this resource could devastate the city. (Businessweek)

• States Are Raking In Billions From Slot Machines on Your Phone: Online casinos have proved to be a much stronger source of tax revenue than sports betting apps. They may be coming to a state near you. (New York Times)

• What if Our Ancestors Didn’t Feel Anything Like We Do? The historians who want to know how our ancestors experienced love, anger, fear, and sorrow. (The Atlantic)

• Will AI make research on humans…less human? It’s been a long road to ensure that testing on human subjects is ethical. AI could send us backward. (Vox) see also Anthropic is all in on ‘AI safety’—and that’s helping the $183 billion startup win over big business: Founders Daniela and Dario Amodei have made Anthropic and its Claude models the AI many companies prefer over rivals OpenAI and ChatGPT. (Fortune)

• Robot smaller than grain of salt can ‘sense, think and act’ With solar cells and its own propulsion system, the device is a step toward sending robots into the human body. (Washington Post)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Stephen Cohen, BlackRock Chief Product Officer and Head of Global Product Solutions. He is a member of BlackRock’s Global Executive Committee. Previously, he was Global Head of Fixed Income Indexing (iShares); and Chief Investment Strategist for International Fixed Income and iShares. Blackrock manages $13.5 trillion in AUM; its iShares division is over $5 trillion.

 

House departures announced in the first 11 months of the session

Source: Axios

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

When You're In A Hole, Stop Digging

Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics,

President Trump was onto something when he replaced Joe Biden’s White House portrait with a mocking picture of an autopen. Given our recent history of failed leadership, why stop there?

To truly capture the impact of this century’s presidents, let’s replace George W. Bush’s photo with a picture of a small hole and a shovel. Instead of Barack Obama’s dazzling smile, how about a deeper hole with a longer shovel? And maybe an earth mover before a crater in Donald Trump’s first term. Maybe stick with Biden’s autopen as a tip of the cap to a great idea, although a shot of the Grand Canyon would fit as well. As for Trump’s second term, if things keep going in the same direction, the art department might start working on a drawing of Alfred E. Neumann with his famous tagline, “What, Me Worry”?

If this sounds harsh, consider the fiscal abyss these men have plunged us into. Since George W. Bush’s presidency, the national debt has been widely acknowledged as one of our nation’s chief challenges. In 2000, it was equal to 55% of our GDP; it now stands at 121%. The oxymoronically named Government Accountability Office projects that percentage will double by 2053.

It costs about $1 trillion per year just to service our $38.5 trillion debt, which is still growing at close to $2 trillion per year.

Presidents can’t do this alone. Congress passes the budgets, and the American people just go along with the charade. Everybody wants what they want; nobody is willing to sacrifice. The modern welfare state launched by Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, supercharged by Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society – and expanded by every president and Congress since the 1960s – has become a massive system of transfer payments that now sends some 72.5 million Americans government assistance.

Even if we cut our leaders some slack for making entitlement reform the Godot of modern politics, their intentional unwillingness to even pluck the low-hanging fruit of obvious fraud and abuse is impossible to defend.

When the ongoing investigation of massive fraud in Minnesota became big news in recent weeks, President Trump did not take the opportunity to focus the nation’s attention on the huge amount of federal dollars being swiped by con artists and grifters. Instead of calling for a top-to-bottom review of expensive programs, he cast the fraud as an immigration issue – falsely suggesting that all would be well if we hadn’t admitted so many Somali immigrants.

The truth is, most everybody has their snout in the trough.

Right now, Congress is debating the future of enhanced Obamacare subsidies passed in 2021: Democrats want to extend them, Republicans want to spend some of the money in other ways. What no one is addressing in any serious way is the strong evidence of massive fraud in the program. Earlier this year, RealClearInvestigations reported on a study that found that an estimated 12 million enrollees had not filed a single claim in 2024 – suggesting that brokers and insurance companies may be adding phantom patients to juice profits. In a separate effort, the GAO reports that it has tested Obamacare’s verification system by submitting 24 fictional applications during the last two years – almost all of them were approved for expensive benefits. Reason magazine reported that the GAO auditors also “found more than 66,000 Social Security numbers attached to records showing more than 366 days of health insurance coverage – an indicator that those Social Security numbers may have been used multiple times in the same year. Additionally, GAO found more than 58,000 Social Security numbers matching death records in the Social Security Administration’s database. More than $94 million in tax credits were delivered to those accounts.”

Meanwhile, a series of reports in the Washington Post suggests rampant fraud in benefits paid to veterans. Where a 100% disability rating used to be a relatively rare status given to those who suffered truly debilitating and disfiguring injuries, today 1.5 million of the roughly 6 million veterans receiving disability payments have that classification – “a nearly ninefold increase since 2021.” Part of this increase, the Post reports, is driven by a growing industry, “steeped in hucksterism and fraud,” that recruits and coaches “to pile on benefits,” through what appears to be a rubber-stamp government review system.

Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal series has documented rampant fraud in Medicaid and Medicare. One article reportedthat health insurers “collected at least $4.3 billion over three years for [hundreds of thousands of] patients who were enrolled – and paid for – in other states.” Another article reported that “Medicare Advantage insurers diagnosed patients with conditions that triggered extra payments of $50 billion from 2019 to 2021, even though no doctor ever treated the diseases.”

Despite its crushing costs, America’s vast welfare state is not going away. Although it is more likely that fiscal catastrophe rather than courageous leadership will one day ignite necessary reforms, in the meantime we might soften that day of reckoning by addressing the bad actors sucking us dry.

Some advice to our future leaders: When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 23:20

When You're In A Hole, Stop Digging

Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics,

President Trump was onto something when he replaced Joe Biden’s White House portrait with a mocking picture of an autopen. Given our recent history of failed leadership, why stop there?

To truly capture the impact of this century’s presidents, let’s replace George W. Bush’s photo with a picture of a small hole and a shovel. Instead of Barack Obama’s dazzling smile, how about a deeper hole with a longer shovel? And maybe an earth mover before a crater in Donald Trump’s first term. Maybe stick with Biden’s autopen as a tip of the cap to a great idea, although a shot of the Grand Canyon would fit as well. As for Trump’s second term, if things keep going in the same direction, the art department might start working on a drawing of Alfred E. Neumann with his famous tagline, “What, Me Worry”?

If this sounds harsh, consider the fiscal abyss these men have plunged us into. Since George W. Bush’s presidency, the national debt has been widely acknowledged as one of our nation’s chief challenges. In 2000, it was equal to 55% of our GDP; it now stands at 121%. The oxymoronically named Government Accountability Office projects that percentage will double by 2053.

It costs about $1 trillion per year just to service our $38.5 trillion debt, which is still growing at close to $2 trillion per year.

Presidents can’t do this alone. Congress passes the budgets, and the American people just go along with the charade. Everybody wants what they want; nobody is willing to sacrifice. The modern welfare state launched by Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, supercharged by Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society – and expanded by every president and Congress since the 1960s – has become a massive system of transfer payments that now sends some 72.5 million Americans government assistance.

Even if we cut our leaders some slack for making entitlement reform the Godot of modern politics, their intentional unwillingness to even pluck the low-hanging fruit of obvious fraud and abuse is impossible to defend.

When the ongoing investigation of massive fraud in Minnesota became big news in recent weeks, President Trump did not take the opportunity to focus the nation’s attention on the huge amount of federal dollars being swiped by con artists and grifters. Instead of calling for a top-to-bottom review of expensive programs, he cast the fraud as an immigration issue – falsely suggesting that all would be well if we hadn’t admitted so many Somali immigrants.

The truth is, most everybody has their snout in the trough.

Right now, Congress is debating the future of enhanced Obamacare subsidies passed in 2021: Democrats want to extend them, Republicans want to spend some of the money in other ways. What no one is addressing in any serious way is the strong evidence of massive fraud in the program. Earlier this year, RealClearInvestigations reported on a study that found that an estimated 12 million enrollees had not filed a single claim in 2024 – suggesting that brokers and insurance companies may be adding phantom patients to juice profits. In a separate effort, the GAO reports that it has tested Obamacare’s verification system by submitting 24 fictional applications during the last two years – almost all of them were approved for expensive benefits. Reason magazine reported that the GAO auditors also “found more than 66,000 Social Security numbers attached to records showing more than 366 days of health insurance coverage – an indicator that those Social Security numbers may have been used multiple times in the same year. Additionally, GAO found more than 58,000 Social Security numbers matching death records in the Social Security Administration’s database. More than $94 million in tax credits were delivered to those accounts.”

Meanwhile, a series of reports in the Washington Post suggests rampant fraud in benefits paid to veterans. Where a 100% disability rating used to be a relatively rare status given to those who suffered truly debilitating and disfiguring injuries, today 1.5 million of the roughly 6 million veterans receiving disability payments have that classification – “a nearly ninefold increase since 2021.” Part of this increase, the Post reports, is driven by a growing industry, “steeped in hucksterism and fraud,” that recruits and coaches “to pile on benefits,” through what appears to be a rubber-stamp government review system.

Meanwhile, a Wall Street Journal series has documented rampant fraud in Medicaid and Medicare. One article reportedthat health insurers “collected at least $4.3 billion over three years for [hundreds of thousands of] patients who were enrolled – and paid for – in other states.” Another article reported that “Medicare Advantage insurers diagnosed patients with conditions that triggered extra payments of $50 billion from 2019 to 2021, even though no doctor ever treated the diseases.”

Despite its crushing costs, America’s vast welfare state is not going away. Although it is more likely that fiscal catastrophe rather than courageous leadership will one day ignite necessary reforms, in the meantime we might soften that day of reckoning by addressing the bad actors sucking us dry.

Some advice to our future leaders: When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 23:20

National Trust Sues Trump Admin Over White House Ballroom Project

The National Trust for Historic Preservation filed a lawsuit against President Donald Trump and federal agencies on Dec. 12 over the ballroom construction project at the White House.

Construction on the project, which involves demolishing part of the executive mansion and building a 90,000-square-foot ballroom, began in September.

The project is expected to cost about $300 million, all of which is expected to be funded by private donors, including Trump.

The Trump administration released a list of the private donors in October.

The legal complaint, filed with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, seeks a declaration that the ongoing project violates several federal statutes.

The National Trust is also asking for an injunction to halt work on the project “until the necessary federal commissions have reviewed and approved the project’s plans; adequate environmental review has been conducted; and Congress has authorized the Ballroom’s construction,” according to the complaint.

The National Trust describes itself in the complaint as a private, charitable, educational nonprofit corporation that Congress chartered in 1949. Its purpose is “to further the historic preservation policy of the United States and to promote the public’s awareness of and ability to comment on any activity that might damage or destroy our nation’s architectural heritage.” The trust has filed preservation lawsuits against several presidential administrations, the complaint said.

As Matthew Vadum details below via The Epoch Times, the lawsuit lists several federal agencies and those who head them as defendants.

The defendants are: the National Park Service, and its acting director, Jessica Bowron; John Stanwich, superintendent of the White House and President’s Park; Department of the Interior, and its secretary, Douglas Burnum; General Services Administration, and its acting administrator, Michael Rigas; and Trump.

The complaint said the demolition of the East Wing of the White House to make room for the ballroom facility began in late October without congressional approval or approval from federal commissions responsible for development oversight in the nation’s capital.

The federal government did not carry out required environmental studies, nor did it give the public an opportunity for comment, the complaint said.

“Within days, the East Wing and its colonnade—a version of which was first built on the site during the presidency of Thomas Jefferson—were completely destroyed.” Last week a large construction crane was erected on White House grounds and Trump has said that work on the project was “audible all night,” the complaint said.

“No president is legally allowed to tear down portions of the White House without any review whatsoever—not President Trump, not President Biden, and not anyone else. And no president is legally allowed to construct a ballroom on public property without giving the public the opportunity to weigh in.”

The Trump administration has maintained the ballroom project is lawful.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle said that “President Trump has full legal authority to modernize, renovate, and beautify the White House—just like all of his predecessors did.”

On its website on Oct. 21, the White House listed structural changes that 13 presidents, including Trump, have made to the White House grounds since 1902.

The complaint said it is not unusual even for minor structures planned for the White House grounds to be subjected to extensive review. For example, in 2016, the National Park Service submitted plans to the National Capital Planning Commission for a new perimeter fence around the White House. During Trump’s first term in 2019, the National Park Service filed plans with the commission about a proposal to replace a small building on the grounds with a new tennis pavilion.

The ballroom project violates several federal statutes, including the Administrative Procedure Act and the National Environmental Policy Act, the complaint argues.

The Administrative Procedure Act is a federal statute enacted in 1946 that governs administrative law procedures for federal executive departments and independent agencies. The late Sen. Pat McCarran (D-Nev.) said the law was “a bill of rights for the hundreds of thousands of Americans whose affairs are controlled or regulated” in one way or another by agencies of the federal government.

The National Environmental Policy Act regulates federal agencies’ assessments of the potential environmental impacts of projects. The statute requires federal agencies to look at the “reasonably foreseeable” impact of major decisions.

The complaint also alleges that the ballroom project violates the separation of powers and the U.S. Constitution’s property clause, which gives Congress authority over federal property.

The separation of powers is a constitutional doctrine that divides the government into three branches to prevent any single branch from accumulating too much power.

The property clause reads in part: “The Congress shall have Power to dispose of and make all needful Rules and Regulations respecting the Territory or other Property belonging to the United States.”

The Department of Justice, which represents federal officials in court, did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 22:45

National Trust Sues Trump Admin Over White House Ballroom Project

The National Trust for Historic Preservation filed a lawsuit against President Donald Trump and federal agencies on Dec. 12 over the ballroom construction project at the White House.

Construction on the project, which involves demolishing part of the executive mansion and building a 90,000-square-foot ballroom, began in September.

The project is expected to cost about $300 million, all of which is expected to be funded by private donors, including Trump.

The Trump administration released a list of the private donors in October.

The legal complaint, filed with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, seeks a declaration that the ongoing project violates several federal statutes.

The National Trust is also asking for an injunction to halt work on the project “until the necessary federal commissions have reviewed and approved the project’s plans; adequate environmental review has been conducted; and Congress has authorized the Ballroom’s construction,” according to the complaint.

The National Trust describes itself in the complaint as a private, charitable, educational nonprofit corporation that Congress chartered in 1949. Its purpose is “to further the historic preservation policy of the United States and to promote the public’s awareness of and ability to comment on any activity that might damage or destroy our nation’s architectural heritage.” The trust has filed preservation lawsuits against several presidential administrations, the complaint said.

As Matthew Vadum details below via The Epoch Times, the lawsuit lists several federal agencies and those who head them as defendants.

The defendants are: the National Park Service, and its acting director, Jessica Bowron; John Stanwich, superintendent of the White House and President’s Park; Department of the Interior, and its secretary, Douglas Burnum; General Services Administration, and its acting administrator, Michael Rigas; and Trump.

The complaint said the demolition of the East Wing of the White House to make room for the ballroom facility began in late October without congressional approval or approval from federal commissions responsible for development oversight in the nation’s capital.

The federal government did not carry out required environmental studies, nor did it give the public an opportunity for comment, the complaint said.

“Within days, the East Wing and its colonnade—a version of which was first built on the site during the presidency of Thomas Jefferson—were completely destroyed.” Last week a large construction crane was erected on White House grounds and Trump has said that work on the project was “audible all night,” the complaint said.

“No president is legally allowed to tear down portions of the White House without any review whatsoever—not President Trump, not President Biden, and not anyone else. And no president is legally allowed to construct a ballroom on public property without giving the public the opportunity to weigh in.”

The Trump administration has maintained the ballroom project is lawful.

White House spokesman Davis Ingle said that “President Trump has full legal authority to modernize, renovate, and beautify the White House—just like all of his predecessors did.”

On its website on Oct. 21, the White House listed structural changes that 13 presidents, including Trump, have made to the White House grounds since 1902.

The complaint said it is not unusual even for minor structures planned for the White House grounds to be subjected to extensive review. For example, in 2016, the National Park Service submitted plans to the National Capital Planning Commission for a new perimeter fence around the White House. During Trump’s first term in 2019, the National Park Service filed plans with the commission about a proposal to replace a small building on the grounds with a new tennis pavilion.

The ballroom project violates several federal statutes, including the Administrative Procedure Act and the National Environmental Policy Act, the complaint argues.

The Administrative Procedure Act is a federal statute enacted in 1946 that governs administrative law procedures for federal executive departments and independent agencies. The late Sen. Pat McCarran (D-Nev.) said the law was “a bill of rights for the hundreds of thousands of Americans whose affairs are controlled or regulated” in one way or another by agencies of the federal government.

The National Environmental Policy Act regulates federal agencies’ assessments of the potential environmental impacts of projects. The statute requires federal agencies to look at the “reasonably foreseeable” impact of major decisions.

The complaint also alleges that the ballroom project violates the separation of powers and the U.S. Constitution’s property clause, which gives Congress authority over federal property.

The separation of powers is a constitutional doctrine that divides the government into three branches to prevent any single branch from accumulating too much power.

The property clause reads in part: “The Congress shall have Power to dispose of and make all needful Rules and Regulations respecting the Territory or other Property belonging to the United States.”

The Department of Justice, which represents federal officials in court, did not respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 22:45

A New Republican Vision For Health Care

Authored by Monique Yohanan via RealClearHealth,

The shutdown dispute offered a clear view into a problem that has shaped federal health policy for more than a decade. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) directs subsidies to insurance companies rather than to individual Americans. Democrats portrayed their position as a defense of middle-class families, but the system of subsidies they have created primarily protects and enhances insurance company profits.

The current ACA framework needs amendment to make structural reform possible. Republicans should state clearly what they are for: real choices for quality medical care that is affordable, secure, transparent, and accessible. There are three systemic reforms that can get us there.

The first reform is this: Americans should have a medical wallet on their phones.  Instead of subsidies going to insurance companies, money would go into a medical wallet the patient owns and can directly control. It would resemble a Health Savings Account, but unlike current law, it wouldn’t be restricted to just those with high-deductible insurance plans. Families could use a medical wallet for routine needs or save for later expenses. Ownership changes behavior. People compare prices, judge value, and choose services based on their own priorities. None of this is possible when the subsidies bypass individuals and go directly to insurance companies.

The second reform Republicans should champion is portable coverage. Insurance should be centered around the individual, not the employer or the state. It is about freedom and security. Right now patients have neither. Americans want the freedom to make a fresh start, whether that’s a new job or a move to a new state. To do that, they need the security of stable insurance.

The ACA in its current form has made purchasing private insurance out of reach. Too often workers are stuck in jobs they would otherwise leave because losing employee-provided insurance is simply too risky and expensive. Insurance company subsidies have led to yearly rate hikes for everyone exacerbating the problem. The 9% of the population on ACA plans have been insulated from these price jumps, but the rest of the country has felt the full burden of these increases.

The third reform is essential to the first two (and to any truly functional healthcare system): full and real price transparency. In the 15 years after the ACA became law, people still do not know the exact cost of services before they receive them. Consumers should be able to shop for most medical care, but this currently is impossible. Real prices aren’t available up front, let alone whether those prices reflect high quality, high value care. While the ACA included language to improve price transparency, enforcement has at best been inconsistent. Clear prices are particularly important when consumers control their own dollars and have coverage that lets them act on that information. The Marshall-Hickenlooper bill accomplishes this, and must be a priority for passage.

Republicans have an opportunity to reframe the discussion. Right now the system benefits insurance companies and the middlemen who serve them. It’s time for a reset that puts Americans first. This can happen if we give taxpayers control over dollars intended for their care, offer them insurance that stays with them when their circumstances change, and let them know what they are paying before they receive a bill. These are practical expectations consistent with how every other sector of the economy functions.

Medical Wallet. Portable Coverage. Real Prices Up Front. These principles offer a direct and comprehensible alternative. They shift the debate away from defending a legacy architecture that has only one clear beneficiary - insurance companies - and towards a system that can make coverage affordable for everyone. The shutdown made the choice clear. Policymakers can continue to protect insurer subsidies or they can build a structure that gives people control. They cannot do both.

Monique Yohanan, MD, MPH, is a Senior Fellow for Health Policy at Independent Women.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 22:10

A New Republican Vision For Health Care

Authored by Monique Yohanan via RealClearHealth,

The shutdown dispute offered a clear view into a problem that has shaped federal health policy for more than a decade. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) directs subsidies to insurance companies rather than to individual Americans. Democrats portrayed their position as a defense of middle-class families, but the system of subsidies they have created primarily protects and enhances insurance company profits.

The current ACA framework needs amendment to make structural reform possible. Republicans should state clearly what they are for: real choices for quality medical care that is affordable, secure, transparent, and accessible. There are three systemic reforms that can get us there.

The first reform is this: Americans should have a medical wallet on their phones.  Instead of subsidies going to insurance companies, money would go into a medical wallet the patient owns and can directly control. It would resemble a Health Savings Account, but unlike current law, it wouldn’t be restricted to just those with high-deductible insurance plans. Families could use a medical wallet for routine needs or save for later expenses. Ownership changes behavior. People compare prices, judge value, and choose services based on their own priorities. None of this is possible when the subsidies bypass individuals and go directly to insurance companies.

The second reform Republicans should champion is portable coverage. Insurance should be centered around the individual, not the employer or the state. It is about freedom and security. Right now patients have neither. Americans want the freedom to make a fresh start, whether that’s a new job or a move to a new state. To do that, they need the security of stable insurance.

The ACA in its current form has made purchasing private insurance out of reach. Too often workers are stuck in jobs they would otherwise leave because losing employee-provided insurance is simply too risky and expensive. Insurance company subsidies have led to yearly rate hikes for everyone exacerbating the problem. The 9% of the population on ACA plans have been insulated from these price jumps, but the rest of the country has felt the full burden of these increases.

The third reform is essential to the first two (and to any truly functional healthcare system): full and real price transparency. In the 15 years after the ACA became law, people still do not know the exact cost of services before they receive them. Consumers should be able to shop for most medical care, but this currently is impossible. Real prices aren’t available up front, let alone whether those prices reflect high quality, high value care. While the ACA included language to improve price transparency, enforcement has at best been inconsistent. Clear prices are particularly important when consumers control their own dollars and have coverage that lets them act on that information. The Marshall-Hickenlooper bill accomplishes this, and must be a priority for passage.

Republicans have an opportunity to reframe the discussion. Right now the system benefits insurance companies and the middlemen who serve them. It’s time for a reset that puts Americans first. This can happen if we give taxpayers control over dollars intended for their care, offer them insurance that stays with them when their circumstances change, and let them know what they are paying before they receive a bill. These are practical expectations consistent with how every other sector of the economy functions.

Medical Wallet. Portable Coverage. Real Prices Up Front. These principles offer a direct and comprehensible alternative. They shift the debate away from defending a legacy architecture that has only one clear beneficiary - insurance companies - and towards a system that can make coverage affordable for everyone. The shutdown made the choice clear. Policymakers can continue to protect insurer subsidies or they can build a structure that gives people control. They cannot do both.

Monique Yohanan, MD, MPH, is a Senior Fellow for Health Policy at Independent Women.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 22:10

DC Pipe Bomb Arrest Raises Questions About Christopher Wray's FBI

Authored by Julie Kelly via RealClearInvestigations,

It’s a tale of two investigations.

In one version – based on past comments by former FBI Director Christopher Wray – the arrest last week of Brian Cole Jr. as the individual who allegedly placed pipe bombs near the Washington, D.C., headquarters of the Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee on Jan. 5, 2021, was the culmination of a dogged, five-year effort by the bureau. 

In another version, suggested by Dan Bongino, the bureau’s deputy director, FBI agents revived a long-dormant case a few months ago, quickly tracking down Cole through an existing body of evidence, not from new information. At a press conference following Cole’s arrest last week, Bongino said he assigned a fresh team of investigators out of the Washington FBI field office about two months ago that “scoured [existing evidence] over and over and over and over again.” Key pieces of evidence gathered under the previous administration – including credit card purchases of components used to construct the devices, as well as cell phone and vehicle activity from Jan. 5 – led investigators to Cole.

If Cole’s arrest proves to have solved the mystery of who planted the bombs, it presents another perhaps even more consequential question: Why did it take law enforcement so long to find him? Although there are no clear answers as of yet, Bongino’s description of the efforts that led to an arrest seems to contradict public comments and congressional testimony regarding the pipe bomb case previously provided by Wray. 

Given the case’s close connection to the highly-charged events of Jan. 6, questions are also being raised about whether Wray’s FBI essentially put the case on hold for political reasons. Such concerns stem, in part, from the bureau’s documented role in helping advance the discredited Russiagate narrative used against President Trump and its decision to remain silent as the Biden campaign dismissed Hunter Biden’s laptop as a “Russian plant” in the closing days of the 2020 campaign – despite the bureau having already verified its authenticity.

‘Every Rock’ Overturned

Although the bombs allegedly planted by Cole, who faces two federal charges relating to possession of an explosive device, never went off, law enforcement has always treated the bombs as possible instruments of mass casualties.

In the days after the Jan. 6 Capitol protest, top law enforcement officials promised to use all investigative resources necessary to track down the pipe bomb perpetrator. “Every tool, every rock is being unturned because we have to bring that person to justice,” Steven D’Antuono, head of the Washington FBI field office at the time, told reporters on Jan. 12, 2021. He also announced a $50,000 reward for anyone providing information leading to an arrest.

Acting U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Michael Sherwin, who joined D’Antuono during the presser, even warned that felony murder charges “related to the use of destructive devices” could await the pipe bomber despite the fact that the devices did not detonate.

Records show the FBI devoted massive resources to the investigation in early 2021. A team of at least 50 FBI agents collected security camera footage, interviews, apparel purchases, cell phone records, police transmissions, and other evidence, resulting in a trove of 105 million data points by April 2021. Tips poured in from the public; analysts quickly identified the components, including a kitchen timer and a steel pipe used to construct the devices.

The FBI doubled the reward and released video clips of the alleged suspect, who was wearing a hoodie, distinctive Nike sneakers, and a face mask while carrying a backpack around the Capitol Hill neighborhood.

D’Antuono made another urgent plea for the public’s help in March 2021. “We know it can be a difficult decision to report information about family, friends, or co-workers, but this is about protecting human life,” he said in a five-minute video posted on the FBI’s website. Authorities continued to insist the devices had been “viable” and capable of injuring or killing bystanders.

In June 2021, Wray again told Congress under oath that the FBI was “aggressively investigating” who had planted the devices.

Troubling Details

But even as the FBI assured the public it was conducting a vigorous investigation, journalists and Republicans in Congress were uncovering troubling details surrounding the discovery of both devices. In January 2022, Politico reported that Sen. Kamala Harris, the incoming vice president, had been inside DNC headquarters when a plain-clothes Capitol Police officer found the pipe bomb under a bush between two benches next to the driveway of the building – the same driveway Harris’ Secret Service detail had used when she arrived a few hours earlier.

That disclosure raised concerns over the Secret Service’s sweep of the premises earlier that day, as did the discovery of security camera footage showing bomb-sniffing canine units twice deployed near the spot where the device was later found. Even after the device was discovered, video shows law enforcement acting nonchalantly about the potential danger – even allowing a group of schoolchildren to walk past the area. Adding to the mystery is a Quantico report that determined the devices at both the DNC and RNC were nonoperational – a finding, if true, that is likely to be trumpeted by Cole’s lawyers.

In another odd twist, Karlin Younger, the woman who found the pipe bomb near the RNC at 12:40 p.m. on Jan. 6, worked for FirstNet - the same provider that later told the FBI the cell phone data for Jan. 5 had been corrupted and was not recoverable. According to Bongino, the cell phone data had not been corrupted and was crucial evidence that led to Cole’s arrest. 

Younger said she alerted a security guard at the RNC after she found the device sitting near a dumpster when she went to finish her laundry at 12:40 p.m. on Jan. 6. But she also told an FBI investigator the device was not near the dumpster at noon when she went to start her first load, which contradicts the official timeline that the pipe bomber planted his devices on the night of Jan. 5. An FBI report on the components of the device disproved her statement that the RNC device contained a timer set at 20 minutes – suggesting the bomb was scheduled to detonate at the exact same time Congress convened at 1:00 p.m. to certify the 2020 election.

Demand for More Answers

Rep. Barry Loudermilk, chairman of a new select subcommittee on Jan. 6, wants more answers on the circumstances surrounding both discoveries. This week, he sent a letter to Younger asking her to sit for a transcribed interview before his new select subcommittee on January 6. He has previously asked the director of the Secret Service to make the agents on Harris’ security detail that day available for questioning. Loudermilk has also said he plans to explore the destruction of evidence – including the deletion of Secret Services text messages before and on January 6 and of video images from the DNC and RNC on Jan. 6. “As we go and looking for video on January 6th to see did anybody go back to these locations, that footage doesn't exist anymore,” he told podcaster Benny Johnson. “We have January 5th video, but we were told no one preserved January 6th. … This has inhibited our investigation.”

The revelation of those curious circumstances as the FBI investigation dragged on put Wray on the defensive. He refused to discuss details about the investigation with Republican Rep. Thomas Massie during a 2023 House Judiciary Committee hearing and would not confirm whether the FBI interviewed the officer who found the DNC device.

During a heated 2023 exchange with Rep. Eli Crane, an Arizona Republican, Wray said, “We [the FBI] have an entire dedicated team focused specifically on this investigation.” 

Wray also told the Arizona Republican, which had challenged him to explain the successful roundup of hundreds of J6 protesters but not the individual responsible for a potential “mass casualty” event that day, “We’ve done thousands of interviews, we’ve visited thousands of residents and businesses, viewed millions of pieces of data, there’s something like 39,000 video files, and we’ve assessed like 500 or so tips. We’ve done extensive public publicity, we’ve increased the reward money.” Wray further claimed that the FBI laboratory, weapons of mass destruction unit, technology division, and “cellular analysis team” were still hot on the pipe bomber’s trail. “I, as much as anybody, would like to see it solved.”

In a 2023 interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier, Wray said the FBI had devoted “loads” of resources to the investigation and that he had “enormous confidence” in his team assigned to the pipe bomb case.

But when Wray retired shortly before President Trump took office for the second time, a full four years after the launch of the investigation, the pipe bomb case remained unsolved. 

More Headscratchers

Others doubt Wray’s assurances that this case remained a priority on his watch. A January 2025 update on the pipe bomb matter overseen by Loudermilk and Massie asserted, based on law enforcement correspondence, that interest in the case waned as early as one month after the Capitol protest. “By the end of February 2021, the FBI began diverting resources away from the pipe bomb investigation,” the report stated, citing as a reference a Feb. 2021 email from an unidentified Capitol Police official. “One possible explanation for the reduction in resources is that the number of credible leads began to decline, no longer requiring as many special agents to cover the workload.”

Perhaps the biggest headscratcher – how the new team of investigators used cell phone data that D’Antuono claimed had been corrupted – demands answers. In sworn testimony to Congress, D’Antuono had told lawmakers that the FBI “did a complete geofence” for the night of Jan. 5 but that “some data was corrupted by one of the providers.” That assertion appears to be false.

Congress appears interested in determining how Wray’s FBI came up empty-handed. A House Judiciary Committee spokesman told RCI “everything is on the table” in terms of getting answers from the former director about the pipe bomb investigation. Efforts to reach Wray and D’Antuono for comment were unsuccessful.

But the public is entitled to know whether the investigation begun during Wray’s tenure was simply a case that took five years to bring to fruition – or whether it is another example of a federal investigation compromised by political considerations.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 21:00

DC Pipe Bomb Arrest Raises Questions About Christopher Wray's FBI

Authored by Julie Kelly via RealClearInvestigations,

It’s a tale of two investigations.

In one version – based on past comments by former FBI Director Christopher Wray – the arrest last week of Brian Cole Jr. as the individual who allegedly placed pipe bombs near the Washington, D.C., headquarters of the Democratic National Committee and Republican National Committee on Jan. 5, 2021, was the culmination of a dogged, five-year effort by the bureau. 

In another version, suggested by Dan Bongino, the bureau’s deputy director, FBI agents revived a long-dormant case a few months ago, quickly tracking down Cole through an existing body of evidence, not from new information. At a press conference following Cole’s arrest last week, Bongino said he assigned a fresh team of investigators out of the Washington FBI field office about two months ago that “scoured [existing evidence] over and over and over and over again.” Key pieces of evidence gathered under the previous administration – including credit card purchases of components used to construct the devices, as well as cell phone and vehicle activity from Jan. 5 – led investigators to Cole.

If Cole’s arrest proves to have solved the mystery of who planted the bombs, it presents another perhaps even more consequential question: Why did it take law enforcement so long to find him? Although there are no clear answers as of yet, Bongino’s description of the efforts that led to an arrest seems to contradict public comments and congressional testimony regarding the pipe bomb case previously provided by Wray. 

Given the case’s close connection to the highly-charged events of Jan. 6, questions are also being raised about whether Wray’s FBI essentially put the case on hold for political reasons. Such concerns stem, in part, from the bureau’s documented role in helping advance the discredited Russiagate narrative used against President Trump and its decision to remain silent as the Biden campaign dismissed Hunter Biden’s laptop as a “Russian plant” in the closing days of the 2020 campaign – despite the bureau having already verified its authenticity.

‘Every Rock’ Overturned

Although the bombs allegedly planted by Cole, who faces two federal charges relating to possession of an explosive device, never went off, law enforcement has always treated the bombs as possible instruments of mass casualties.

In the days after the Jan. 6 Capitol protest, top law enforcement officials promised to use all investigative resources necessary to track down the pipe bomb perpetrator. “Every tool, every rock is being unturned because we have to bring that person to justice,” Steven D’Antuono, head of the Washington FBI field office at the time, told reporters on Jan. 12, 2021. He also announced a $50,000 reward for anyone providing information leading to an arrest.

Acting U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Michael Sherwin, who joined D’Antuono during the presser, even warned that felony murder charges “related to the use of destructive devices” could await the pipe bomber despite the fact that the devices did not detonate.

Records show the FBI devoted massive resources to the investigation in early 2021. A team of at least 50 FBI agents collected security camera footage, interviews, apparel purchases, cell phone records, police transmissions, and other evidence, resulting in a trove of 105 million data points by April 2021. Tips poured in from the public; analysts quickly identified the components, including a kitchen timer and a steel pipe used to construct the devices.

The FBI doubled the reward and released video clips of the alleged suspect, who was wearing a hoodie, distinctive Nike sneakers, and a face mask while carrying a backpack around the Capitol Hill neighborhood.

D’Antuono made another urgent plea for the public’s help in March 2021. “We know it can be a difficult decision to report information about family, friends, or co-workers, but this is about protecting human life,” he said in a five-minute video posted on the FBI’s website. Authorities continued to insist the devices had been “viable” and capable of injuring or killing bystanders.

In June 2021, Wray again told Congress under oath that the FBI was “aggressively investigating” who had planted the devices.

Troubling Details

But even as the FBI assured the public it was conducting a vigorous investigation, journalists and Republicans in Congress were uncovering troubling details surrounding the discovery of both devices. In January 2022, Politico reported that Sen. Kamala Harris, the incoming vice president, had been inside DNC headquarters when a plain-clothes Capitol Police officer found the pipe bomb under a bush between two benches next to the driveway of the building – the same driveway Harris’ Secret Service detail had used when she arrived a few hours earlier.

That disclosure raised concerns over the Secret Service’s sweep of the premises earlier that day, as did the discovery of security camera footage showing bomb-sniffing canine units twice deployed near the spot where the device was later found. Even after the device was discovered, video shows law enforcement acting nonchalantly about the potential danger – even allowing a group of schoolchildren to walk past the area. Adding to the mystery is a Quantico report that determined the devices at both the DNC and RNC were nonoperational – a finding, if true, that is likely to be trumpeted by Cole’s lawyers.

In another odd twist, Karlin Younger, the woman who found the pipe bomb near the RNC at 12:40 p.m. on Jan. 6, worked for FirstNet - the same provider that later told the FBI the cell phone data for Jan. 5 had been corrupted and was not recoverable. According to Bongino, the cell phone data had not been corrupted and was crucial evidence that led to Cole’s arrest. 

Younger said she alerted a security guard at the RNC after she found the device sitting near a dumpster when she went to finish her laundry at 12:40 p.m. on Jan. 6. But she also told an FBI investigator the device was not near the dumpster at noon when she went to start her first load, which contradicts the official timeline that the pipe bomber planted his devices on the night of Jan. 5. An FBI report on the components of the device disproved her statement that the RNC device contained a timer set at 20 minutes – suggesting the bomb was scheduled to detonate at the exact same time Congress convened at 1:00 p.m. to certify the 2020 election.

Demand for More Answers

Rep. Barry Loudermilk, chairman of a new select subcommittee on Jan. 6, wants more answers on the circumstances surrounding both discoveries. This week, he sent a letter to Younger asking her to sit for a transcribed interview before his new select subcommittee on January 6. He has previously asked the director of the Secret Service to make the agents on Harris’ security detail that day available for questioning. Loudermilk has also said he plans to explore the destruction of evidence – including the deletion of Secret Services text messages before and on January 6 and of video images from the DNC and RNC on Jan. 6. “As we go and looking for video on January 6th to see did anybody go back to these locations, that footage doesn't exist anymore,” he told podcaster Benny Johnson. “We have January 5th video, but we were told no one preserved January 6th. … This has inhibited our investigation.”

The revelation of those curious circumstances as the FBI investigation dragged on put Wray on the defensive. He refused to discuss details about the investigation with Republican Rep. Thomas Massie during a 2023 House Judiciary Committee hearing and would not confirm whether the FBI interviewed the officer who found the DNC device.

During a heated 2023 exchange with Rep. Eli Crane, an Arizona Republican, Wray said, “We [the FBI] have an entire dedicated team focused specifically on this investigation.” 

Wray also told the Arizona Republican, which had challenged him to explain the successful roundup of hundreds of J6 protesters but not the individual responsible for a potential “mass casualty” event that day, “We’ve done thousands of interviews, we’ve visited thousands of residents and businesses, viewed millions of pieces of data, there’s something like 39,000 video files, and we’ve assessed like 500 or so tips. We’ve done extensive public publicity, we’ve increased the reward money.” Wray further claimed that the FBI laboratory, weapons of mass destruction unit, technology division, and “cellular analysis team” were still hot on the pipe bomber’s trail. “I, as much as anybody, would like to see it solved.”

In a 2023 interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier, Wray said the FBI had devoted “loads” of resources to the investigation and that he had “enormous confidence” in his team assigned to the pipe bomb case.

But when Wray retired shortly before President Trump took office for the second time, a full four years after the launch of the investigation, the pipe bomb case remained unsolved. 

More Headscratchers

Others doubt Wray’s assurances that this case remained a priority on his watch. A January 2025 update on the pipe bomb matter overseen by Loudermilk and Massie asserted, based on law enforcement correspondence, that interest in the case waned as early as one month after the Capitol protest. “By the end of February 2021, the FBI began diverting resources away from the pipe bomb investigation,” the report stated, citing as a reference a Feb. 2021 email from an unidentified Capitol Police official. “One possible explanation for the reduction in resources is that the number of credible leads began to decline, no longer requiring as many special agents to cover the workload.”

Perhaps the biggest headscratcher – how the new team of investigators used cell phone data that D’Antuono claimed had been corrupted – demands answers. In sworn testimony to Congress, D’Antuono had told lawmakers that the FBI “did a complete geofence” for the night of Jan. 5 but that “some data was corrupted by one of the providers.” That assertion appears to be false.

Congress appears interested in determining how Wray’s FBI came up empty-handed. A House Judiciary Committee spokesman told RCI “everything is on the table” in terms of getting answers from the former director about the pipe bomb investigation. Efforts to reach Wray and D’Antuono for comment were unsuccessful.

But the public is entitled to know whether the investigation begun during Wray’s tenure was simply a case that took five years to bring to fruition – or whether it is another example of a federal investigation compromised by political considerations.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 21:00

ICE Announces Arrest Of 400 Illegal Immigrants In Minnesota

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

More than 400 illegal immigrants have been arrested in Minnesota by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as part of Operation Metro Surge, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in a statement on Dec. 12.

Federal agents move away protestors in front of Immigration and Customs Enforcement offices in Portland, Ore., on Oct. 4, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Operation Metro Surge targets the “worst of the worst” illegal immigrants who had flocked to Minnesota, assuming the state’s “sanctuary” politicians would protect them, DHS said.

Sanctuary jurisdictions are places in the country where local or state officials refuse to enforce federal immigration laws or cooperate with federal immigration authorities. Minnesota is one of such states, according to an Aug. 5 statement from the Department of Justice (DOJ).

Among the arrested were a Burmese national convicted of third-degree criminal sexual conduct using force or coercion, a Somali convicted of robbery, a Laotian convicted of first-degree criminal sexual conduct with a child under 13, and an Ecuadorian national who was previously arrested for assaulting a police officer, DHS said.

DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin accused Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who have been vocal against ICE operations, of “fail[ing] to protect the people of Minnesota.”

“They let these monsters and child predators roam free,” McLaughlin said. “Thanks to our brave law enforcement, Minnesota is safer with these thugs off their streets.”

The Epoch Times reached out to Walz and Frey for comments and did not receive a response by publication time.

The arrests come as immigration enforcement officers continue to face a surge in attacks nationwide.

On Dec. 12, DHS said an ICE officer was attacked by a criminal illegal immigrant in Tullos, Louisiana, who “savagely bit the officer’s hand while resisting arrest.”

The bite broke through the skin and drew blood, the agency said, while calling on politicians in sanctuary jurisdictions and media to stop calling for resistance against ICE enforcement.

“DHS law enforcement is facing a 1,150 percent increase in assaults against them and an 8,000 percent increase in death threats. This is the reality of what our ICE officers are facing every day as they go to work to simply do their job and enforce the law,” McLaughlin said.

“Many of these assaults, including biting and vehicle rammings, are happening as a direct result of sanctuary politicians encouraging illegal aliens to evade arrest.”

There has been pushback from officials in Minneapolis and Minnesota over the federal government’s enforcement operations.

In Minneapolis, the City Council unanimously approved a stronger version of its “sanctuary city” ordinance on Dec. 11 amid the federal government’s illegal immigration crackdown.

Community members gather for a public hearing as the Minneapolis City Council considers strengthening the city’s separation ordinance barring cooperation with ICE in Minneapolis, Minn., on Dec. 9, 2025. Jenn Ackerman for The Epoch Times

Updates to the “separation ordinance,” which bans local police from assisting federal immigration-enforcement efforts and has been in effect for 22 years, were passed by the council, 13-0. There are no Republicans on the council.

During the meeting, Councilmember Jason Chavez, whose parents came from Mexico, said, “Our undocumented immigrants as a whole are being arrested, detained, deported, and not being able to come home.”

Chavez vowed to “continue to resist this Trump administration.”

Meanwhile, Minnesota Gov. Walz wrote a letter to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem on Dec. 11, saying he has serious concerns about ICE operations allegedly resulting in “multiple arrests of United States citizens” in Minneapolis.

“The forcefulness, lack of communication, and unlawful practices displayed by your agents will not be tolerated in Minnesota,” he wrote.

DHS criticized the letter in a Dec. 12 X post, highlighting that there is a “growing and disturbing trend” of agitators and rioters obstructing law enforcement during the arrest of illegal immigrants.

The department highlighted the surge in attacks against officers and warned that obstructing law enforcement is not a protest but a crime.

“Secretary Noem has been clear: if you lay a hand on a law enforcement officer, you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” DHS said.

“Instead of trying to spread misinformation, @GovTimWalz should focus on protecting American lives and thanking the brave men and women of DHS law enforcement who are risking their lives to make communities in his state safer.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 19:50

ICE Announces Arrest Of 400 Illegal Immigrants In Minnesota

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

More than 400 illegal immigrants have been arrested in Minnesota by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as part of Operation Metro Surge, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said in a statement on Dec. 12.

Federal agents move away protestors in front of Immigration and Customs Enforcement offices in Portland, Ore., on Oct. 4, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Operation Metro Surge targets the “worst of the worst” illegal immigrants who had flocked to Minnesota, assuming the state’s “sanctuary” politicians would protect them, DHS said.

Sanctuary jurisdictions are places in the country where local or state officials refuse to enforce federal immigration laws or cooperate with federal immigration authorities. Minnesota is one of such states, according to an Aug. 5 statement from the Department of Justice (DOJ).

Among the arrested were a Burmese national convicted of third-degree criminal sexual conduct using force or coercion, a Somali convicted of robbery, a Laotian convicted of first-degree criminal sexual conduct with a child under 13, and an Ecuadorian national who was previously arrested for assaulting a police officer, DHS said.

DHS Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs Tricia McLaughlin accused Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who have been vocal against ICE operations, of “fail[ing] to protect the people of Minnesota.”

“They let these monsters and child predators roam free,” McLaughlin said. “Thanks to our brave law enforcement, Minnesota is safer with these thugs off their streets.”

The Epoch Times reached out to Walz and Frey for comments and did not receive a response by publication time.

The arrests come as immigration enforcement officers continue to face a surge in attacks nationwide.

On Dec. 12, DHS said an ICE officer was attacked by a criminal illegal immigrant in Tullos, Louisiana, who “savagely bit the officer’s hand while resisting arrest.”

The bite broke through the skin and drew blood, the agency said, while calling on politicians in sanctuary jurisdictions and media to stop calling for resistance against ICE enforcement.

“DHS law enforcement is facing a 1,150 percent increase in assaults against them and an 8,000 percent increase in death threats. This is the reality of what our ICE officers are facing every day as they go to work to simply do their job and enforce the law,” McLaughlin said.

“Many of these assaults, including biting and vehicle rammings, are happening as a direct result of sanctuary politicians encouraging illegal aliens to evade arrest.”

There has been pushback from officials in Minneapolis and Minnesota over the federal government’s enforcement operations.

In Minneapolis, the City Council unanimously approved a stronger version of its “sanctuary city” ordinance on Dec. 11 amid the federal government’s illegal immigration crackdown.

Community members gather for a public hearing as the Minneapolis City Council considers strengthening the city’s separation ordinance barring cooperation with ICE in Minneapolis, Minn., on Dec. 9, 2025. Jenn Ackerman for The Epoch Times

Updates to the “separation ordinance,” which bans local police from assisting federal immigration-enforcement efforts and has been in effect for 22 years, were passed by the council, 13-0. There are no Republicans on the council.

During the meeting, Councilmember Jason Chavez, whose parents came from Mexico, said, “Our undocumented immigrants as a whole are being arrested, detained, deported, and not being able to come home.”

Chavez vowed to “continue to resist this Trump administration.”

Meanwhile, Minnesota Gov. Walz wrote a letter to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem on Dec. 11, saying he has serious concerns about ICE operations allegedly resulting in “multiple arrests of United States citizens” in Minneapolis.

“The forcefulness, lack of communication, and unlawful practices displayed by your agents will not be tolerated in Minnesota,” he wrote.

DHS criticized the letter in a Dec. 12 X post, highlighting that there is a “growing and disturbing trend” of agitators and rioters obstructing law enforcement during the arrest of illegal immigrants.

The department highlighted the surge in attacks against officers and warned that obstructing law enforcement is not a protest but a crime.

“Secretary Noem has been clear: if you lay a hand on a law enforcement officer, you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” DHS said.

“Instead of trying to spread misinformation, @GovTimWalz should focus on protecting American lives and thanking the brave men and women of DHS law enforcement who are risking their lives to make communities in his state safer.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 19:50

Santa Vs The Grinch, Diets, & QE

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Santa vs The Grinch, Diets, & qe

The week ended with a bang.

At Academy’s Holiday Party, the Marines pulled out all the stops to win the annual “service song” contest (they actually brought out instruments, with Dakota leading the charge on the trumpet).

We rolled (like the Army’s rolling along song), straight into Bloomberg TV Friday morning, where Academy was the guest host for the entire 6am hour. Had some interesting guests on the Geopolitical/European side, a bond portfolio PM, and an analyst who covers Disney (I abstained from asking him a question as I just didn’t think I could contribute usefully to the Disney-OpenAI deal discussion).

Santa vs The Grinch

Post-FOMC, markets rallied making it appear like the Santa rally was well underway. We will be circling back on a couple of things mentioned in our Quick Take on the FOMC. Starting with the final line from that report – the Oracle earnings call could be market moving.

Oracle struggled the next day, but markets fought back from their lows, with some serious “rotation” occurring. But more “questionable” news from the chip and data center/AI space weighed on markets again on Friday, this time, without a late-day stick save.

We use the word “questionable” because on the one hand, we heard phrases like:

• Slight miss, overall solid, decent guidance, new clients added, backlogs, etc.

All phrases that you would not normally associate with individual stocks down double digits or even the Nasdaq 100 down 2%. Clearly expectations are high and valuations still require very strong numbers/guidance for bullishness on data centers/AI to remain intact.

Since November 20th, we’ve seen the Nasdaq 100 lag (still up, but lagging) while the Russell 2000 has been the star of the show.

We pick that date because that was the day we started to see the Fed hawks capitulate – the Santa Rally Recipe.

We argued that breaking the 100-Day Moving Average (DMA) made the Fed “see the light” and turn noticeably dovish (the probability of a rate cut jumped from the 30s to 90s in a matter of days).

We are trading right around the 50-DMA right now on the Nasdaq 100. It could still act as resistance, which we should see Sunday night/Monday morning. But if it breaks through there, the 100-DMA is clearly in play. What is concerning is that it was quite clear to many that the Fed played a crucial role in defending the 100-DMA. Will they do it again if we get there? Possibly, but how? The next meeting is quite far off, by market standards.

We will be watching some of these technical levels closely as it seems that not only is the “free money” gone, but the hurdle to creating further market cap gains has ratcheted higher. We define “free” money as things like announcing $X in spending on AI/data centers and being rewarded with a market cap increase far in excess of $X.

So far, the Grinch hasn’t caught up to the people in Weeville (Russell 2000), but it seems impossible to believe that further weakness here won’t bring down all the markets:

• The stocks just make up such a large portion of the big indices, and it will be difficult for even the Russell 2000, with little actual overlap, to fight the trend. The outperformance can continue, but would likely all be negative.

• The industry makes up such a huge part of the economic story including spending and the wealth effect (more than jobs but there are jobs too). It is difficult to see how markets can do well (though rate cut expectations, which I think are too low, will increase with more cuts coming sooner than is currently being priced in).

More “technical” than usual, but since we “survived” the Fed and the Santa rally seemed back in play, positioning (which goes hand in hand with technicals) may be offsides again coming into a period of low levels of true liquidity.

Which Brings Us to Diets

I cannot remember the last time there was this much chatter about single name CDS, with Oracle’s CDS leading the way. Not only did we end the TV interview on Friday talking about that, but we also spent some time on Friday helping Barron’s understand CDS, in relation to big tech and data centers.

We mentioned Debt Diets a few weeks ago, and want to highlight it again. It was our “Theme for 2019.” At the time, many corporations were seeing their stocks come under pressure, largely due to strains in the credit market for their names. It is “easy” for corporate leadership to ignore the debt markets when their stock price is doing really well. You can probably even give credit markets only a cursory glance if your stock is facing some pressure, but credit is just a side story. But when credit becomes a main part of the story – it is difficult to ignore. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It might sound bad, but it doesn’t have to be.

When Credit Leads the Way

This chart, for me, explains why a “debt diet” may be on the way (and yes, we will explain what we mean by that, and why it isn’t necessarily bad, and follows our end of “free” money narrative).

It is possible that I’m “grasping” at straws, but from the middle of September to the middle of October, the credit market and stock market were not “beating the same drum.” Yes, the stock market faced some selling pressure, but it also had a solid rebound. The credit market basically widened every day during that period.

Now they are back to moving in the same direction and it seems almost impossible to ignore the performance of the credit market when making a decision on the stock market.

Which brings us to the Debt Diet.

• Companies can alter their spending plans.

  • Probably unnecessary here, but for the space as a whole, it might be a good time for CEOs and CFOs to explain their spending plans more clearly. To, not necessarily, pay “homage” to creditors, but make sure creditors understand their concerns are being taken into account.

  • Clarity, especially as to what might make them cautious on building more (maybe some rough alignment of building with profits and positive cash flow in mind, versus an almost “build it and they will come” mentality).

• Companies do not need to be “afraid” of creditors, but a clearer recognition of their importance to your future might be in order.

A lot can be done without changing the plans today. I see a lot of ways that clarification and some identification of issues or trends that might change spending plans could go a long way towards improving spreads and leaving the market hungry for more issuance in 2026 and beyond!

Debt Diets are Manageable – An AI Diet Might Not Be

So far, this seems more like a “debt diet” type of situation in the data center space. The news that has come out doesn’t seem to have changed the overall narrative (backlogs, new clients, etc. all seem to argue this is more about a change in valuations than a meaningful change in trend for the industry).

However, I am nervous that we could see an AI Diet developing:

• How much are companies budgeting for AI spend next year? The following year? Just like the industry itself had “free” money for a period of time, it was impossible for any corporation in America to do anything but spend more on AI. As companies have now been using AI for 2 years or more, are they all seeing the benefits they thought they paid for? Certainly, some are and they are probably rejoicing in their spending. But everyone? Especially in an economy, where away from certain industries (our little i-shaped view of the economy), we are seeing little growth. For now, I think the spending from corporate America continues, but it will be possibly “abated” as opposed to unabated.

• Chips and China. The admin is comfortable selling a greater variety of chips to a greater variety of nations (China being the most important, though I’d argue that the Middle East isn’t far behind in importance). The question is whether China wants chips in the quantity that would fuel real revenue growth? Or is China willing to forego some quality today, in an effort to continue to bootstrap their own chip industry and make them more competitive with the top chips being designed/produced by U.S. companies and TSMC? I think this is more about constraining the upside rather than creating downside risk to spending on U.S. chips, but I have this nagging concern that “we” may be underestimating the resources and skills that China is devoting to this.

• Electricity. If there is one thing our Macro, Structured Products, and Sustainable Finance teams agree on – it is the importance of electricity in today’s economy and the risk that we cannot generate electrons quickly and efficiently enough to satisfy the needs of industry going forward. This “molecules to electrons” has been a theme of ours for quite some time and fits perfectly into our ProSec™ (Production for Security) framework. If you were starting to think, wonder, or even hope that we could go an entire T-Report without mentioning ProSec™, we had to disappoint you.

  • If you have not read Stav Gaon’s work on data centers, I highly recommend you do. You can find his work under the Securitized Products Research & Strategy tab on Academy’s website. You can scroll and pick through his various pieces on data centers.

I think the Debt Diet is real and not necessarily bad. I don’t think the AI Diet is real, but since it is very bad if it occurs, it seemed worth at least highlighting that risk in our “diet” framework.

qe

Is the $40 billion of Federal Reserve purchases QE or a non-event? Or somewhere in between?

It “depends.” Clearly the Fed had to address some issues within the front end of the yield curve. SOFR, as a secured rate, should not be more expensive than unsecured rates. That is embarrassing, and has some small economic consequences. This is NOTHING like elevated LIBOR. When we have problems on interbank lending or even in the commercial paper markets, we can worry. This is much more of an issue with regulations, regulatory capital, and return on capital. The rules have been created in such a way, that it isn’t particularly economic (or even feasible) for the banking industry to price and trade SOFR at levels where “it should trade.” So, to the extent these purchases are “temporary” and designed to get us through year end and “clean things up” (and then they can be reduced or eliminated), it isn’t really QE or even qe. Bitcoin does as good of a job as any asset class at “sniffing” out balance sheet expansion and it has been moderately happy, but not giddy, since the announcement was made.

If the Treasury decides to take advantage of this by reducing issuance of longer-dated bonds, to sell more T-Bills to the Fed, and does this month after month, it starts to look a lot more like QE.

For now, I’ll be in the “qe” camp and that this is more of a “fix,” than in the full-on QE camp, but I’m not sure why Treasury wouldn’t try to make this work a lot more like QE than maybe even Powell intended?

I continue to believe that “we ain’t seen nothing yet” in terms of how the admin and Treasury will work with the Fed to achieve 3% or lower on the front end and a 3-handle (under 4%) on 10s.

At 4.18% on 10s and 2s vs 10s at 66 (the highest since February 2022), I’m tempted to be buying 10s and putting on flatteners. But, it is probably a bit early, as the market doesn’t feel that healthy, and I think that we need Japanese yields to really stabilize and Europe to make it clear on whether they are going to spend aggressively, or seize Russia’s frozen reserves, or let the 5% defense spending fizzle, before we can get too comfortable on U.S. rates.

It does seem ”curious” that Goolsbee went from dissenting on Wednesday (wanted no cut) to highlighting that he thinks there will be more cuts next year than others! I wonder what sort of “bollocking” he got from the admin between the FOMC meeting and his speaking opportunity?

Bottom Line

I am not sure how we got to the “bottom line” without mentioning Tuesday’s jobs data. The release date is highly unusual and I certainly don’t understand how the government shutdown will affect the report. Since it is delayed, the response rate could be higher, but maybe much of the preliminary work wasn’t done?

The consensus is for 50k jobs to be created. I’d be leaning towards the under. I do think a weak jobs report would help bonds. I agree with Goolsbee that the Fed will cut sooner and more aggressively than is priced in, but it won’t help the long end much (just yet) and won’t help stocks – as the “slowdown” story (despite the Fed raising GDP expectations for next year) will weigh on stocks.

One thing I can tell you with certainty is that despite all this talk of diets, and probably because of the holidays and travel, I’m very reluctant and even a bit scared to step on a scale.

Have a great week, but expect more chop and volatility coming into year end and the start of next year, which should be a gangbuster one for debt issuance, and may well make credit markets interesting to focus on again! I’ve almost missed the fact that in the past year, where everything in credit seemed so dull (until the latter half when the financing needs started to hit home), we also saw the first signs of unexpected problems in private credit.

With all that is going on in the world, and U.S. service members at risk, it was fun to sit back and watch a great Army-Navy football game

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 18:25

Santa Vs The Grinch, Diets, & QE

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Santa vs The Grinch, Diets, & qe

The week ended with a bang.

At Academy’s Holiday Party, the Marines pulled out all the stops to win the annual “service song” contest (they actually brought out instruments, with Dakota leading the charge on the trumpet).

We rolled (like the Army’s rolling along song), straight into Bloomberg TV Friday morning, where Academy was the guest host for the entire 6am hour. Had some interesting guests on the Geopolitical/European side, a bond portfolio PM, and an analyst who covers Disney (I abstained from asking him a question as I just didn’t think I could contribute usefully to the Disney-OpenAI deal discussion).

Santa vs The Grinch

Post-FOMC, markets rallied making it appear like the Santa rally was well underway. We will be circling back on a couple of things mentioned in our Quick Take on the FOMC. Starting with the final line from that report – the Oracle earnings call could be market moving.

Oracle struggled the next day, but markets fought back from their lows, with some serious “rotation” occurring. But more “questionable” news from the chip and data center/AI space weighed on markets again on Friday, this time, without a late-day stick save.

We use the word “questionable” because on the one hand, we heard phrases like:

• Slight miss, overall solid, decent guidance, new clients added, backlogs, etc.

All phrases that you would not normally associate with individual stocks down double digits or even the Nasdaq 100 down 2%. Clearly expectations are high and valuations still require very strong numbers/guidance for bullishness on data centers/AI to remain intact.

Since November 20th, we’ve seen the Nasdaq 100 lag (still up, but lagging) while the Russell 2000 has been the star of the show.

We pick that date because that was the day we started to see the Fed hawks capitulate – the Santa Rally Recipe.

We argued that breaking the 100-Day Moving Average (DMA) made the Fed “see the light” and turn noticeably dovish (the probability of a rate cut jumped from the 30s to 90s in a matter of days).

We are trading right around the 50-DMA right now on the Nasdaq 100. It could still act as resistance, which we should see Sunday night/Monday morning. But if it breaks through there, the 100-DMA is clearly in play. What is concerning is that it was quite clear to many that the Fed played a crucial role in defending the 100-DMA. Will they do it again if we get there? Possibly, but how? The next meeting is quite far off, by market standards.

We will be watching some of these technical levels closely as it seems that not only is the “free money” gone, but the hurdle to creating further market cap gains has ratcheted higher. We define “free” money as things like announcing $X in spending on AI/data centers and being rewarded with a market cap increase far in excess of $X.

So far, the Grinch hasn’t caught up to the people in Weeville (Russell 2000), but it seems impossible to believe that further weakness here won’t bring down all the markets:

• The stocks just make up such a large portion of the big indices, and it will be difficult for even the Russell 2000, with little actual overlap, to fight the trend. The outperformance can continue, but would likely all be negative.

• The industry makes up such a huge part of the economic story including spending and the wealth effect (more than jobs but there are jobs too). It is difficult to see how markets can do well (though rate cut expectations, which I think are too low, will increase with more cuts coming sooner than is currently being priced in).

More “technical” than usual, but since we “survived” the Fed and the Santa rally seemed back in play, positioning (which goes hand in hand with technicals) may be offsides again coming into a period of low levels of true liquidity.

Which Brings Us to Diets

I cannot remember the last time there was this much chatter about single name CDS, with Oracle’s CDS leading the way. Not only did we end the TV interview on Friday talking about that, but we also spent some time on Friday helping Barron’s understand CDS, in relation to big tech and data centers.

We mentioned Debt Diets a few weeks ago, and want to highlight it again. It was our “Theme for 2019.” At the time, many corporations were seeing their stocks come under pressure, largely due to strains in the credit market for their names. It is “easy” for corporate leadership to ignore the debt markets when their stock price is doing really well. You can probably even give credit markets only a cursory glance if your stock is facing some pressure, but credit is just a side story. But when credit becomes a main part of the story – it is difficult to ignore. That isn’t necessarily a bad thing. It might sound bad, but it doesn’t have to be.

When Credit Leads the Way

This chart, for me, explains why a “debt diet” may be on the way (and yes, we will explain what we mean by that, and why it isn’t necessarily bad, and follows our end of “free” money narrative).

It is possible that I’m “grasping” at straws, but from the middle of September to the middle of October, the credit market and stock market were not “beating the same drum.” Yes, the stock market faced some selling pressure, but it also had a solid rebound. The credit market basically widened every day during that period.

Now they are back to moving in the same direction and it seems almost impossible to ignore the performance of the credit market when making a decision on the stock market.

Which brings us to the Debt Diet.

• Companies can alter their spending plans.

  • Probably unnecessary here, but for the space as a whole, it might be a good time for CEOs and CFOs to explain their spending plans more clearly. To, not necessarily, pay “homage” to creditors, but make sure creditors understand their concerns are being taken into account.

  • Clarity, especially as to what might make them cautious on building more (maybe some rough alignment of building with profits and positive cash flow in mind, versus an almost “build it and they will come” mentality).

• Companies do not need to be “afraid” of creditors, but a clearer recognition of their importance to your future might be in order.

A lot can be done without changing the plans today. I see a lot of ways that clarification and some identification of issues or trends that might change spending plans could go a long way towards improving spreads and leaving the market hungry for more issuance in 2026 and beyond!

Debt Diets are Manageable – An AI Diet Might Not Be

So far, this seems more like a “debt diet” type of situation in the data center space. The news that has come out doesn’t seem to have changed the overall narrative (backlogs, new clients, etc. all seem to argue this is more about a change in valuations than a meaningful change in trend for the industry).

However, I am nervous that we could see an AI Diet developing:

• How much are companies budgeting for AI spend next year? The following year? Just like the industry itself had “free” money for a period of time, it was impossible for any corporation in America to do anything but spend more on AI. As companies have now been using AI for 2 years or more, are they all seeing the benefits they thought they paid for? Certainly, some are and they are probably rejoicing in their spending. But everyone? Especially in an economy, where away from certain industries (our little i-shaped view of the economy), we are seeing little growth. For now, I think the spending from corporate America continues, but it will be possibly “abated” as opposed to unabated.

• Chips and China. The admin is comfortable selling a greater variety of chips to a greater variety of nations (China being the most important, though I’d argue that the Middle East isn’t far behind in importance). The question is whether China wants chips in the quantity that would fuel real revenue growth? Or is China willing to forego some quality today, in an effort to continue to bootstrap their own chip industry and make them more competitive with the top chips being designed/produced by U.S. companies and TSMC? I think this is more about constraining the upside rather than creating downside risk to spending on U.S. chips, but I have this nagging concern that “we” may be underestimating the resources and skills that China is devoting to this.

• Electricity. If there is one thing our Macro, Structured Products, and Sustainable Finance teams agree on – it is the importance of electricity in today’s economy and the risk that we cannot generate electrons quickly and efficiently enough to satisfy the needs of industry going forward. This “molecules to electrons” has been a theme of ours for quite some time and fits perfectly into our ProSec™ (Production for Security) framework. If you were starting to think, wonder, or even hope that we could go an entire T-Report without mentioning ProSec™, we had to disappoint you.

  • If you have not read Stav Gaon’s work on data centers, I highly recommend you do. You can find his work under the Securitized Products Research & Strategy tab on Academy’s website. You can scroll and pick through his various pieces on data centers.

I think the Debt Diet is real and not necessarily bad. I don’t think the AI Diet is real, but since it is very bad if it occurs, it seemed worth at least highlighting that risk in our “diet” framework.

qe

Is the $40 billion of Federal Reserve purchases QE or a non-event? Or somewhere in between?

It “depends.” Clearly the Fed had to address some issues within the front end of the yield curve. SOFR, as a secured rate, should not be more expensive than unsecured rates. That is embarrassing, and has some small economic consequences. This is NOTHING like elevated LIBOR. When we have problems on interbank lending or even in the commercial paper markets, we can worry. This is much more of an issue with regulations, regulatory capital, and return on capital. The rules have been created in such a way, that it isn’t particularly economic (or even feasible) for the banking industry to price and trade SOFR at levels where “it should trade.” So, to the extent these purchases are “temporary” and designed to get us through year end and “clean things up” (and then they can be reduced or eliminated), it isn’t really QE or even qe. Bitcoin does as good of a job as any asset class at “sniffing” out balance sheet expansion and it has been moderately happy, but not giddy, since the announcement was made.

If the Treasury decides to take advantage of this by reducing issuance of longer-dated bonds, to sell more T-Bills to the Fed, and does this month after month, it starts to look a lot more like QE.

For now, I’ll be in the “qe” camp and that this is more of a “fix,” than in the full-on QE camp, but I’m not sure why Treasury wouldn’t try to make this work a lot more like QE than maybe even Powell intended?

I continue to believe that “we ain’t seen nothing yet” in terms of how the admin and Treasury will work with the Fed to achieve 3% or lower on the front end and a 3-handle (under 4%) on 10s.

At 4.18% on 10s and 2s vs 10s at 66 (the highest since February 2022), I’m tempted to be buying 10s and putting on flatteners. But, it is probably a bit early, as the market doesn’t feel that healthy, and I think that we need Japanese yields to really stabilize and Europe to make it clear on whether they are going to spend aggressively, or seize Russia’s frozen reserves, or let the 5% defense spending fizzle, before we can get too comfortable on U.S. rates.

It does seem ”curious” that Goolsbee went from dissenting on Wednesday (wanted no cut) to highlighting that he thinks there will be more cuts next year than others! I wonder what sort of “bollocking” he got from the admin between the FOMC meeting and his speaking opportunity?

Bottom Line

I am not sure how we got to the “bottom line” without mentioning Tuesday’s jobs data. The release date is highly unusual and I certainly don’t understand how the government shutdown will affect the report. Since it is delayed, the response rate could be higher, but maybe much of the preliminary work wasn’t done?

The consensus is for 50k jobs to be created. I’d be leaning towards the under. I do think a weak jobs report would help bonds. I agree with Goolsbee that the Fed will cut sooner and more aggressively than is priced in, but it won’t help the long end much (just yet) and won’t help stocks – as the “slowdown” story (despite the Fed raising GDP expectations for next year) will weigh on stocks.

One thing I can tell you with certainty is that despite all this talk of diets, and probably because of the holidays and travel, I’m very reluctant and even a bit scared to step on a scale.

Have a great week, but expect more chop and volatility coming into year end and the start of next year, which should be a gangbuster one for debt issuance, and may well make credit markets interesting to focus on again! I’ve almost missed the fact that in the past year, where everything in credit seemed so dull (until the latter half when the financing needs started to hit home), we also saw the first signs of unexpected problems in private credit.

With all that is going on in the world, and U.S. service members at risk, it was fun to sit back and watch a great Army-Navy football game

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 18:25

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of December 14, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 10.8, down from 18.7.

• 10:00 AM, The December NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 39, up from 38 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are little changed (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $57.44 per barrel and Brent at $61.12 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $71, and Brent was at $74 - so WTI oil prices are down about 20% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.87 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $2.98 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.11 year-over-year.

We're "At The Beginning Of The Credit Destruction Cycle"; Ed Dowd Warns

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned in September we were at the “Beginning of Panic Rate Cut Cycle.”  Since that prediction, the Fed has cut interest rates three times.  Looks like Dowd called it correctly.  

So, when does the panic kick in?  Dowd says, “The panic kicks in when there is some sort of banking wobble or stock market wobble, which is in the process of setting up..."

"Private credit is the first to show problems.  We had Tricolor Holdings (subprime auto lending bankruptcy) go poof.  We had First Brands (bankruptcy) go poof.  This is all private credit.  We have had other lenders like PrimaLend (bankruptcy) starting to go poof.  Private credit is just like subprime.  It not a very big part of the Jenga credit chain, but it’s enough to start a daisy chain of knock-on effects.  

So, this is where we are, at the beginning of the credit destruction cycle.  We are seeing consumer credit card delinquencies nearing all-time highs, auto loan delinquencies and, next up, we will be seeing mortgage delinquencies. 

People stop paying their credit cards first, then their auto loans and stop paying on their homes last. 

As the layoffs accelerate, and we are already seeing more high-profile layoffs at Amazon, UPS and you name it, once those begin, we will be seeing higher delinquency rates.”

Dowd sees much lower prices for homes.  Dowd says,

“There is a distinct problem between homes for sale and homes sold, meaning there are a lot of people wanting to sell their homes and not a lot of people buying them. 

The inventory continues to grow. . .. The only way this clears is through price.  The price of homes is going lower. 

We had an overbuild in multi-family housing because of the illegal immigrants.  Those deals are going sour and rolling over. 

Rents are coming down. . .. It’s all slowly going the wrong way, and it will become a mainstream topic in 2026.”

In past interviews, Dowd points out there was massive fraud in the Biden Administration, especially in unemployment figures. 

That, too, will all be revealed.  This is why Dowd pointed out last year that President Trump “Inherited a Turd of an Economy.”

What is working are precious metals, especially gold.  Dowd does not see gold losing its shine anytime soon.  Dowd says,

“If we get any kind of credit crisis, gold may get sold temporarily where people sell what they can, but not what they want.  Long term, gold looks like it’s going to $10,000 an ounce on the charts by 2030.  Everything is conspiring fundamentally and technically to lead us that way.  They made gold a Tier 1 asset.  

That makes gold money again in the banking system. . .. I would not get scared out of my physical gold position anytime soon.”

Dowd has new cutting-edge analysis on China for institutional investors.  China is a lot weaker than anyone can imagine.  Dowd says,

“Not only does China have long-term structural problems, our report identifies a very acute part of their real estate crisis, which is beginning now and accelerating into 2026. . .. China is struggling mightily.  We have more bargaining chips than a lot of us think.  When I hear things like ‘China holds all the cards and Trump is screwed,’ I laugh.”

There is much more in the 45-minute interview.

There is lots of free information on Dowd’s website called PhinanceTechnologies.com.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 16:20

We're "At The Beginning Of The Credit Destruction Cycle"; Ed Dowd Warns

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Former Wall Street money manager and financial analyst Ed Dowd of PhinanceTechnologies.com warned in September we were at the “Beginning of Panic Rate Cut Cycle.”  Since that prediction, the Fed has cut interest rates three times.  Looks like Dowd called it correctly.  

So, when does the panic kick in?  Dowd says, “The panic kicks in when there is some sort of banking wobble or stock market wobble, which is in the process of setting up..."

"Private credit is the first to show problems.  We had Tricolor Holdings (subprime auto lending bankruptcy) go poof.  We had First Brands (bankruptcy) go poof.  This is all private credit.  We have had other lenders like PrimaLend (bankruptcy) starting to go poof.  Private credit is just like subprime.  It not a very big part of the Jenga credit chain, but it’s enough to start a daisy chain of knock-on effects.  

So, this is where we are, at the beginning of the credit destruction cycle.  We are seeing consumer credit card delinquencies nearing all-time highs, auto loan delinquencies and, next up, we will be seeing mortgage delinquencies. 

People stop paying their credit cards first, then their auto loans and stop paying on their homes last. 

As the layoffs accelerate, and we are already seeing more high-profile layoffs at Amazon, UPS and you name it, once those begin, we will be seeing higher delinquency rates.”

Dowd sees much lower prices for homes.  Dowd says,

“There is a distinct problem between homes for sale and homes sold, meaning there are a lot of people wanting to sell their homes and not a lot of people buying them. 

The inventory continues to grow. . .. The only way this clears is through price.  The price of homes is going lower. 

We had an overbuild in multi-family housing because of the illegal immigrants.  Those deals are going sour and rolling over. 

Rents are coming down. . .. It’s all slowly going the wrong way, and it will become a mainstream topic in 2026.”

In past interviews, Dowd points out there was massive fraud in the Biden Administration, especially in unemployment figures. 

That, too, will all be revealed.  This is why Dowd pointed out last year that President Trump “Inherited a Turd of an Economy.”

What is working are precious metals, especially gold.  Dowd does not see gold losing its shine anytime soon.  Dowd says,

“If we get any kind of credit crisis, gold may get sold temporarily where people sell what they can, but not what they want.  Long term, gold looks like it’s going to $10,000 an ounce on the charts by 2030.  Everything is conspiring fundamentally and technically to lead us that way.  They made gold a Tier 1 asset.  

That makes gold money again in the banking system. . .. I would not get scared out of my physical gold position anytime soon.”

Dowd has new cutting-edge analysis on China for institutional investors.  China is a lot weaker than anyone can imagine.  Dowd says,

“Not only does China have long-term structural problems, our report identifies a very acute part of their real estate crisis, which is beginning now and accelerating into 2026. . .. China is struggling mightily.  We have more bargaining chips than a lot of us think.  When I hear things like ‘China holds all the cards and Trump is screwed,’ I laugh.”

There is much more in the 45-minute interview.

There is lots of free information on Dowd’s website called PhinanceTechnologies.com.

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 16:20

Watch: Top Biden Official Belatedly Admits Ukraine War Truth Bombshell

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is way behind the times. On Sunday he very belatedly expressed willingness to drop Ukraine's bid to join NATO. In place of this, he's seeking robust security guarantees. "We are talking about bilateral security guarantees between Ukraine and the United States — namely, Article 5-like guarantees ... as well as security guarantees for us from our European partners and from other countries such as Canada, Japan and others," Zelensky told journalists in a group chat, as reported in Financial Times.

"These security guarantees are an opportunity to prevent another wave of Russian aggression," he said. "And this is already a compromise on our part." But this should have been taken off the table all the way back in February of 2022, on the eve of the Russian invasion, or even well before. He's much too late 'offering' this 'concession' just as White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner are meeting Sunday in Berlin with Zelensky, and then separately with the national security advisers of Germany, France and the UK.

The open secret has for years been that the Washington and EU establishments know full well that it was historic and recent constant NATO expansion which led to this horrific, grinding war. This reality is so well understood that in their private, non-official commentary even former top Biden officials fully admit the fact. Yet these same Biden officials had while in government pursued policies fueling the Ukrainian proxy war as they wanted to 'weaken' Russia. They considered the issue of NATO expansion as a prime rationale of Russia's invasion to be an off-limits talking point. Indeed for any sincere, independent commentators... to so much as raise the issue would get them smeared as a "Putin apologist". But watch this recent and highly revealing clip below of Joe Biden's top official for Europe and former national security official Amanda Sloat admitting the truth:

Absolut MUST Watch!

Joe Biden's top official for Europe Amanda Sloat casually admitting explosive facts that the Blob not only suppressed for years, but you would have been accused of being a Putin apologist if you ever raised.

Remember the energy expended to silence and… pic.twitter.com/8caof42O1D

— Trita Parsi (@tparsi) December 12, 2025

Tyler Durden Sun, 12/14/2025 - 15:45