From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hold Steady to Start Holiday-Shortened Week

Mortgage rates are tied to movement in the bond market and bonds were close enough to Friday's levels that mortgage rates were essentially unchanged today. This keeps the average lender in the lower portion of the narrow range seen over the past 4 months. [30 year fixed 6.24%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for November.  The consensus is for a 0.4% increase.

• Also at 8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd Quarter 2025 (Initial Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.2% annualized in Q3, down from 3.8% in Q2.
• At 9:15 AM, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for October. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 75.9%.

• At 10:00 AM, Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for December.

Judge Green-Lights Secret Service Agent's Retaliation Case

Authored by Susan Crabtree via RealClearPolitics,

A federal judge has allowed most claims in a senior Secret Service agent’s lawsuit alleging a hostile workplace, retaliation, and discrimination to move forward despite Department of Homeland Security opposition, according to court documents.  

Rashid Ellis, a 14-year veteran of the agency with expertise in drone systems, sued DHS, which oversees the Secret Service, three months before the July 13, 2024, assassination attempt against Donald Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Ellis’ lawsuit accuses agency leaders of dismissing complaints, elevating problematic colleagues to oversight positions, and punishing him for advocating for advancements in drone technology and racial unity within the agency.

The claims of retaliation, discrimination, and hostile work environment took place when Alejandro Mayorkas was DHS secretary and Kimberly Cheatle ran the Secret Service. Cheatle was forced to resign after severe criticism of her testimony to Congress about the Butler failures.

Even though Ellis’ former agency is now led by Trump-appointed Secretary Kristi Noem and Secret Service Director Sean Curran, so far there has been no effort to settle the case out of court.

Ruling Preserves Ellis’ Core Allegations

U.S. District Judge Emmit Sullivan ruled in late September that most of the claims in Ellis’ lawsuit could proceed. The decision, which RealClearPolitics is first to report, rejects the government’s motion to dismiss the case, clearing the path for legal discovery into allegations of systemic leadership failings, which Ellis argues enabled bias, stifled innovation, and endangered the agency’s mission.

A graduate of The Citadel who was consistently awarded “exceeds expectations” ratings in his performance reviews, Ellis served on former President Joe Biden’s protective detail, the elite Counter Assault Team, and as an instructor at the Secret Service’s James J. Rowley Training Center on counter-surveillance and the use of drones. His role as the Secret Service point person for the Federal Law Enforcement Officers’ Association, a lobbying entity that offers legal services, retirement benefits, and other support, amplified his advocacy for racial equality. Ellis argues it also made him a target for Secret Service leadership.

Multiple Secret Service shortcomings were evident in Butler on the day Trump was nearly killed, including the failure to detect the shooter’s drone in the air over the rally site. On the one-year anniversary of the Butler assassination attempt, the Secret Service announced reforms, including the creation of an Aviation and Airspace Security division “dedicated to maintaining the agency’s critical aerial monitoring capabilities.”

Ellis’ lawsuit detailing his experiences with Cheatle at the helm, which RCP reported on last year, reads like a case study of the agency leaders’ long-running tendency to engage in petty squabbles, favoritism, and retaliation instead of keeping its focus on the big picture – its mission of protecting presidents, vice presidents, Cabinet members, and former presidents.

In a detailed 63-page opinion, Sullivan determined that Ellis had sufficiently alleged civil rights violations.

The judge was unpersuaded by DHS attorneys’ arguments, including that Ellis didn’t truly suffer any adverse action because he never lost his salary and that he didn’t exhaust administrative remedies on his charges before filing suit.

DHS attorneys also argued that federal employees are held to a higher standard than those in the private sector when it comes to experiencing adverse actions. Sullivan dismissed this last argument as one that has repeatedly failed in previous court decisions.

“As discussed below,” the judge wrote, “this theory has been rejected by every judge on this court to have considered it.”

Ellis’ attorney, David Blum of Alan Lescht & Associates, P.C., told RCP: “We look forward to litigating the merits of this case.”

The Secret Service has declined comment on Ellis’ case and ignored several separate questions about the agency’s history of resisting efforts to implement an extensive aerial drone program and the readiness level of that program. Prior to the assassination attempts, the Secret Service had an aerial drone program, but it was limited in scope, sources told RCP.

“As a matter of longstanding policy, the U.S. Secret Service does not comment on pending or proposed litigation,” a spokesperson told RCP last year. The agency did not respond to a request for comment on Sullivan’s ruling.

The lawsuit depicts a corrosive Secret Service culture in which leaders engage in intimidation, and supervisors ignore harassment reports, neglect investigations, and retaliate if personnel complain of mistreatment.

Ellis argues that Cheatle, then serving as the head of the Secret Service’s Office of Protective Operations, backed by human resource managers and other bureaucrats, blocked and retaliated against him for trying to transfer jobs to work full-time on a special drone project he was developing, according to three sources in the Secret Service community.

Some of these agency officials, Ellis asserts, also retaliated against him for lodging complaints about personal and inaccurate attacks based on his perceived religion.

Cheatle and a group of senior Secret Service officials went to great lengths to prevent Ellis from serving in a key role in the Airspace Security Branch of the Secret Service’s Special Operations Division, which oversees the drone program, according to court records Ellis filed last year.

Instead, the agency wanted to send him to the vice presidential detail to help provide security for Kamala Harris, her husband, and their extended family, and wouldn’t budge when he appealed the decision – even though the agency had formally listed the airspace position as “hard-to-staff.”

Ellis, who is black but eschews racial divisions, referring to himself as “American,” filed suit against DHS in April 2024 and amended the complaint in late July to outline a pattern of harassment. The lawsuit accuses agency officials of orchestrating an elaborate scheme, beginning in 2021, to undermine his career in retaliation for his efforts to transfer to an Airspace position. Ellis wanted the position so he could play a direct role in establishing and implementing “a special project involving drones,” according to the lawsuit.

Ellis’ lawsuit alleges that those who conspired against him include Cheatle; then-human resources head Susan Yarwood; Elizabeth Lewis, Yarwood’s then-deputy; then-Technical Services Division Assistant Director Darren Giacolleto; then-Human Resources supervisors Danielle Watson and Thomas Hamman; and others.

Specific Leadership Failures

Incidents of harassment Ellis endured include:

• A fellow agent, whom the lawsuit identifies as Michael Hackney, allegedly used a training exercise to physically attack him and pulled a live weapon on him as a joke while he was working a protection detail. Ellis reported the incident to his superior, who took no action, telling him, “The juice isn’t worth the squeeze,” according to the lawsuit. Two years later, Hackney allegedly aggressively drove his SUV toward Ellis and his pregnant wife and one-year-old son as though he was going to run them over.
• Another agent, who Ellis says witnessed the aggressive driving threat, warned him not to report Hackney because “that’s how some people joke.”
• Ellis, a Christian, believes his complaints about Hackney, whom he said also misidentified him as Muslim and called him a “terrorist” based on his Islamic-sounding first name, contributed to his failure to land bids for two hard-to-staff positions in the agency’s Airspace branch, even though he argues he was eligible for both positions.

The lawsuit further alleges:

• A senior official acknowledged agency-wide racism and backed Ellis’ 2021 drone position bid, calling him the “number one selection,” but failed to counter Human Resources’ disqualification. Lewis and Yarwood deemed him ineligible despite his qualifications and the endorsement.
• After Ellis appealed that decision, Danielle Watson twisted his frustrated comment about the process “driving him to drink” into cynical claims that he admitted to abusing alcohol. Yarwood, after consulting Lewis, directed Watson to draft a memorandum falsely alleging Ellis admitted to drinking, family disputes, and related issues – proven false by video evidence. The agency then placed Ellis on administrative leave and forced him to surrender his gear while recommending a nine-month sobriety program. Those decisions were overturned shortly afterward, but nonetheless damaged Ellis’ reputation.
• Cheatle supported the phony alcoholism narrative, recommending administrative leave and the sobriety program, and allegedly provided misleading statements in an affidavit about the sources of information that informed her decisions.
• Giacoletto denied Ellis’ appeal the day the agency imposed the administrative leave and was involved in the initial disqualification.

A supervisor warned Ellis of “a lot of trouble” for pursuing grievances, while others told him that the real source of his troubles with the agency was his pro-drone advocacy.

These incidents, Ellis claims, reflect a Secret Service pattern of weaponizing human resources processes against those who complain of mistreatment, a similar refrain among numerous former agents and the lawyers who have represented them.

Connections to Broader Secret Service Challenges

Despite new leadership, the Secret Service has experienced a string of continued lapses and embarrassing incidents. As RCP first reported, two female officers were involved in a physical fight outside former President Obama’s D.C. residence; Secret Service officers also missed a Glock while screening bags at Trump’s Virginia golf course; a Uniformed Division officer fell asleep on the job and left his fully automatic rifle unattended while protecting the United Nations General Assembly in New York; and an agent openly celebrated Charlie Kirk’s assassination in a Facebook post. Trump’s detail also allowed protesters at a D.C. restaurant to get close to Trump and several of his top Cabinet members and taunt them.

Ellis’ lawsuit alleges that his blocked transfer to a leadership position in the drone program quite possibly hindered advancements that might have prevented the 2024 Trump assassination attempts. A Senate report on the Butler failures faulted Secret Service leaders for denying counter-drone requests and technical failures. Then-Acting Director Ronald Rowe admitted to lapses during congressional testimony last year.

Ellis himself ties the Butler failures to Cheatle and prior leaders’ DEI priorities, arguing they favored quotas over merit, eroding standards and morale and agent retention. As the discovery process proceeds, the case may force DHS to address these leadership decisions.

“The relentless push by Secret Service leadership to meet diversity quotas has compromised our ability to meet our protectees’ needs,” Ellis said in a video posted on the Independent Women’s Forum website. IWF is a nonprofit conservative advocacy organization.

Despite efforts to dismantle DEI under the current administration, Ellis cautions that it will take years for the agency to recover.

“If we do not clean out the rot, our people – and our protectees – will pay the price,” he warned.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 18:25

MSM Belatedly Details Syrian 'Prisons Filling Up Again, Torture' Under Jolani Regime

More than a year after Bashar al-Assad's overthrow, and some mainstream media outlets are finally taking a critical eye to the new Sharaa/Jolani regime and its human rights abuses, religious oppression, and war crimes.

While the West and Gulf countries celebrated Assad fleeting the country for Russia in December 2024, with the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) taking over Damascus, the new government quickly got to work persecuting, massacring, and disappearing religious minorities.

Source: Christian Science Monitory/Getty Images

First Alawites were targeted last spring, then Christians, and more recently Druze - or anyone not acting according to the HTS brand of fanatical Islam and jihad. But CNN and other establishment news outlets have 'moved on' and are turning a blind eye. 

But somewhat surprisingly, Reuters has issued a new report which highlights the country simply traded Assad's 'notorious prisons' for Jolani's dark dungeons:

The first wave of detentions in the new Syria came almost immediately – just after victorious rebels flung open the doors of Bashar al-Assad’s notorious prisons.

As ordinary Syrians stormed detention complexes last December to search for loved ones who had vanished under Assad’s rule, thousands of the deposed dictator’s soldiers who had abandoned their posts – officers and conscripts alike – were taken prisoner by the rebels.

Then came the second wave in late winter: Hundreds of people from Assad’s Alawite sect, mostly men, were seized by the new authorities throughout Syria. Their detentions spiked after a brief uprising along the coast in March killed dozens of security forces, sparking reprisals that left nearly 1,500 Alawites dead. Those arrests continue to this day.

In the next wave to be targeted for mass detentions by the new government were Druze, especially after fighting and unrest was sparked in the south between locals and Jolani's Sunni security forces.

Reuters underscores, "Prisons and lockups that jailed tens of thousands of people during Assad’s rule are now crowded with Syrians detained by President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s security forces and held without formal charges."

The outlet has compiled names of over 800 Syrians held under such circumstances, and says the true figure is likely much higher.

Syrian general security headed towards Aleppo calls Kurds pigs. Not the SDF. Not the Asayish. Kurds.

"We'll step on your necks, God willing."

This is the "inclusive" Syrian government. pic.twitter.com/LWzxJdX3ls

— Lindsey Snell (@LindseySnell) December 22, 2025

The secular rule of the Assad family over the years consistently saw widespread accusations of torture happening at government detention sites. But again, it seems the country has simply moved to jails now overseen by torturers who are bearded jihadists: 

In December 2024, Sharaa pledged to “close the notorious prisons” of the fallen dictator. But Reuters found that at least 28 prisons and lockups from the Assad era have been operational again over the past year.

Asked for comment on the findings of this report, Syria’s Information Ministry said that the need to bring those involved in Assad’s abuses to justice explained many of the detentions and the reopening of some facilities.

“The number of people involved in crimes and violations in Syria under the former regime is very large, given the scale of the abuses committed,” the ministry said. “There are past crimes, involvement in new violations, and threats to security and stability by those associated with the regime, in addition to other crimes.”

So it seems this is more about mass revenge against non-Muslim communities, and detainees interviewed by Reuters say they've been insulted with fanatical and religious language. "You are infidels, you are pigs," one Syrian farmer who was arrested by the new regime described.

Another Alawite man recounted, "Everyone ordered me to bark like a dog. They beat me with the butts of their rifles, their fists, their boots. I thought my life was coming to an end."

Shocking how #ISIS has become more powerful and present in #Syria since Trump made #Jolani and the #NewSyria Takfiris part of the Anti-ISIS coalition. LOL pic.twitter.com/poM3LzwLnh

— Vanessa Beeley (@VanessaBeeley) December 17, 2025

Reuters also included the story of a Christian merchant who was tortured and killed under the new regime:

Among the dead was a detainee at Kafr Sousa, a 59-year-old Christian merchant named Milad al-Farkh. His family said he was arrested on August 24 on allegations of hiding weapons, working as an arms dealer and selling expired meat at his butcher shop.

Al-Farkh’s family described the arrest as an attempt to pressure them into paying $10,000 in protection money.

Two weeks later, an inmate at Kafr Sousa managed to get a call out to the family to tell them al-Farkh was near death from torture. The call from the hospital morgue came the next day, on September 9, the family said. One relative was arrested for demanding an autopsy. 

Sadly, Syria's new rulers - who resemble ISIS or al Qaeda in their words, actions, appearance, and beliefs - were installed with the help of the US, Turkey, and Gulf allies.

Below: "Details of the real-life experiences of the Orthodox Christian families and others who suffered at the hands of radical terrorists supported by countries and groups from outside Syria."

The Book SYRIA CRUCIFIED offers unique stories of individual Syrian Christians telling of their war-torn homeland. Order your copy with the link below. https://t.co/tn0pfyQFS9 pic.twitter.com/zazLajtIsh

— Brad Hoff (@BradRHoff) December 28, 2021

President Trump even recently boasted, "It’s been amazing what — what’s taken place in Syria. We got rid of Assad." 

Amer Matar, a journalist and filmmaker briefly detained by ruling HTS forces this year has observed, "Those ruling today decided to turn the Assad prisons into new prisons... It's the most absurd thing I have ever seen."

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 18:00

State Department Recalls 29 Biden-Appointed Ambassadors

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The United States has recalled almost 30 career diplomats from ambassadorial roles.

A sign for the State Department on the outside of the Harry S. Truman Federal Building in Washington on July 11, 2025. Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

All of the ambassadors were appointed under President Joe Biden and are senior members of the State Department’s Foreign Service, which produces career diplomats to serve in Washington and abroad.

These diplomats tend to stay in their roles for a few years and usually do not leave when there is a change in administration, as they are trained to carry out the president’s agenda, no matter which party occupies the White House.

The ambassadors were informed last week that their tenures will end in January. Those affected by the recalls will return to Washington and are able to take on other assignments.

A State Department official told The Epoch Times that ambassadors serve at the pleasure of the president.

“This is a standard process in any administration,” the official said.

“An ambassador is a personal representative of the president, and it is the president’s right to ensure that he has individuals in these countries who advance the America First agenda.”

Politico first reported the ambassadorial recalls.

“One of the reasons why President Trump was elected is sort of an understanding among the American people that our foreign policy was in need of a complete recalibration because the world has dramatically changed,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Dec. 19

“Many of the institutions, policies, assumptions that our foreign policy was operating under were built upon a world that no longer existed, and it required us to re-examine that.”

The 29 ambassadors recalled included 15 from Africa: Algeria (Elizabeth Aubin), Burundi (Lisa Peterson), Cameroon (Christopher Lamora), Cape Verde (Jennifer Adams), Egypt (Herro Mustafa Garg), Gabon (Vernelle Trim FitzPatrick), Ivory Coast (Jessica Davis Ba), Madagascar (Claire A. Pierangelo), Mauritius (Henry Jardine), Niger (Kathleen FitzGibbon), Nigeria (Richard Mills Jr.), Rwanda (Eric W. Kneedler), Senegal (Michael Raynor), Somalia (Richard Riley), and Uganda (William Popp).

There were eight recalled from the Asia-Pacific region: Fiji (Marie Damour), Laos (Heather Variava), Marshall Islands (Laura Stone), Nepal (Dean Thompson), Papua New Guinea (Ann Marie Yastishock), the Philippines (MaryKay Loss Carlson), Sri Lanka (Julie Chung), and Vietnam (Marc Knapper).

Four of the recalled ambassadors were from Europe: Armenia (Kristina Kvien), Macedonia (Angela Aggeler), Montenegro (Judy Reinke), and Slovakia (Gautam Rana).

Two were from the Americas: Guatemala (Tobin Bradley) and Suriname (Robert Faucher).

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 17:40

Japan To Resume Operations At World's Largest Nuclear Plant 15 Years After Fukushima Disaster

Authored by Rachel Roberts via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Japan is set to resume operations at the world’s largest nuclear power plant, marking a key development in the country’s return to nuclear energy almost 15 years after the Fukushima disaster.

Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO)'s Kashiwazaki Kariwa nuclear power plant, one of the world's largest nuclear facilities, stands along the seaside in Kashiwazaki, Niigata prefecture, Japan, on Dec. 21, 2025. Issei Kato/Reuters

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, located around 136 miles northwest of Tokyo, was among 54 reactors shut down after the nuclear disaster that occurred after the crippling of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in Japan in March 2011. The disaster occurred following the 9.0 magnitude Great East Japan Earthquake, which led to a large tsunami.

Japan has now resumed nuclear power generation at 14 of the 33 plants that remain operable, as part of its shift away from reliance on fossil fuels.

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa will be the first operated by Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO), which also ran the Fukushima plant.

Operations can resume immediately following Niigata prefecture’s assembly passing a vote of confidence on Niigata Gov. Hideyo Hanazumi on Dec. 22.

Hanazumi, who backed the restart last month, said after the vote, “This is a milestone, but this is not the end.”

“There is no end in terms of ensuring the safety of Niigata residents,” he said.

Bags of radiation-contaminated soil are gathered at a temporary storage field in Okuma town of Fukushima prefecture on Feb. 19, 2025. Yuichi Yamazaki / AFP via Getty Images Deep Divisions

The assembly session revealed the community’s deep divisions over the restart, in spite of lawmakers giving their backing to Hanazumi.

“This is nothing other than a political settlement that does not take into account the will of the Niigata residents,” an assembly member told fellow lawmakers during the session.

Around 300 protesters gathered outside the assembly holding billboards with signs expressing their opposition to the resumption in operations, such as  “No Nukes” and “Support Fukushima.”

“I am truly angry from the bottom of my heart,” Kenichiro Ishiyama, a 77-year-old protester from Niigata city, told reporters after the vote.

“If something was to happen at the plant, we would be the ones to suffer the consequences.”

The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, damaged by a massive March 11, 2011, earthquake and tsunami, is seen from the nearby Ukedo fishing port in Namie town, northeastern Japan, on Aug. 24, 2023. Eugene Hoshiko/AP Photo Evacuation Effects

An almost 50-foot tsunami disabled the power supply and cooling of three of Fukushima Daiichi reactors, causing a nuclear accident rated level 7 on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale, with a high level of radioactive release occurring.

The evacuation has been criticized for having done more harm than good, due to the effects of stress on those displaced, particularly on elderly people. Experts have concluded that the loss of life would have been far smaller if all residents had done nothing at all, or were sheltered in place, instead of being evacuated.

“We remain firmly committed to never repeating such an accident and ensuring Niigata residents never experience anything similar,” said TEPCO spokesperson Masakatsu Takata, who declined to comment on timing.

TEPCO pledged earlier this year to pour 100 billion yen ($641 million) into the district over the next 10 years as it fought to win the support of Niigata’s wary residents. The company’s shares rose by 2 percent in Monday’s afternoon trade in Tokyo, higher than the Nikkei index as a whole, which was up 1.8 percent.

A survey in October found 60 percent of residents did not think conditions for the restart had been met, with almost 70 percent worried about TEPCO operating the plant.

Farmer Ayako Oga, 52, was forced to flee the area around the Fukushima plant in 2011, along with around 160,000 other evacuees.

“We know firsthand the risk of a nuclear accident and cannot dismiss it,” said Oga, who still suffers from post-traumatic stress-like symptoms following the disaster.

Hanazumi has said he hopes Japan will eventually be able to reduce its reliance on nuclear power.

“I want to see an era where we don’t have to rely on energy sources that cause anxiety,” he said last month.

The Dec. 22 vote represented the final hurdle before TEPCO restarts the first reactor, which alone could boost electricity supply to the Tokyo area by 2 percent, according to an estimate by Japan’s trade ministry.

Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi delivers her first policy speech in the parliament, in Tokyo, Japan, on Oct. 24, 2025. Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo/Reuters AI Driving Energy Demand

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has expressed her support for nuclear restarts to counter the cost of imported fossil fuels, which account for 60–70 percent of the country’s total electricity generation.

Last year, Japan spent 10.7 trillion yen ($68 billion) on imported liquefied natural gas and coal, representing a tenth of the country’s total import costs.

Despite its declining population, Japan expects energy demand to rise over the next decade, due to the power needs of artificial intelligence (AI) data processing centers.

The country has set a target of doubling the portion of nuclear power in its electricity mix to 20 percent by 2040.

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa’s total capacity is 8.2 GW, which is enough to power a few million homes.

Japan’s top nuclear power operator, Kansai Electric Power, said in July it would begin conducting surveys for a reactor in western Japan, in what is planned to be the country’s first new plant since the Fukushima disaster.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 17:00

Mapping The Chances Of A White Christmas

A white Christmas is one of those holiday experiences that feels universal—until you look at the weather history and actual odds of snowfall on Christmas Day across the United States.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Niccolo Conte, shows the historic probability across the U.S. of seeing at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25, using data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) is based on the latest U.S. Climate Normals (1991–2020).

These “normals” are three-decade averages built from observations at nearly 15,000 stations, offering a consistent baseline for what’s typical in different parts of the country.

Latitude Matters Most For a Snow on Christmas Day

If you want the simplest rule of thumb for a white Christmas, head north. The northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and large stretches of the interior Northeast generally sit in higher probability bands than the rest of the country.

The data table below features state averages of NOAA’s full 5,000+ row dataset of specific station probabilities of at least one inch of snow:

State Average probability of at least one inch of snow on Christmas day Alabama 0.1% Alaska 84.3% Arizona 4.1% Arkansas 1.3% California 4.4% Colorado 48.7% Connecticut 35.2% Delaware 6.5% Florida 0.0% Georgia 0.4% Hawaii 0.0% Idaho 62.1% Illinois 27.2% Indiana 26.0% Iowa 46.9% Kansas 15.0% Kentucky 6.6% Louisiana 0.1% Maine 74.4% Maryland 11.2% Massachusetts 35.8% Michigan 64.8% Minnesota 75.2% Mississippi 0.2% Missouri 13.7% Montana 56.7% Nebraska 35.1% Nevada 17.8% New Hampshire 70.1% New Jersey 13.7% New Mexico 11.3% New York 55.9% North Carolina 3.1% North Dakota 77.3% Ohio 26.8% Oklahoma 3.1% Oregon 14.4% Pennsylvania 34.2% Rhode Island 26.9% South Carolina 0.6% South Dakota 55.5% Tennessee 2.8% Texas 0.8% Utah 46.2% Vermont 76.9% Virginia 8.6% Washington 26.9% West Virginia 26.8% Wisconsin 66.3% Wyoming 56.0%

Areas around the Great Lakes can also improve their odds thanks to lake-effect snow, which can build persistent snowpack when cold air is in place.

Meanwhile, the further south you go, the more quickly the map shifts into darker shades—signaling that a white Christmas is historically uncommon.

Mountains Upgrade White Christmas Probabilities

Elevation can change the forecast more than any state line. The Rockies and the Sierra Nevada stand out as some of the most reliable places for holiday snow cover, with many high-altitude areas reaching the upper probabilities of Christmas Day snowfall.

The Cascades and ranges across Idaho also show strong odds, reinforcing how quickly temperatures drop with height.

Even in the East, the Appalachians make a visible difference—higher terrain can hold onto snow that the surrounding lowlands doesn’t.

Why the South and Coasts Often Miss White Christmas

Across the Gulf Coast, Deep South, and much of the Sun Belt, the map largely sits in the 0–10% range. Warmer winter temperatures mean snow is rarer to begin with—and even when it does fall, it’s less likely to stick around long enough to still be on the ground by Christmas morning.

Coastal climates often tilt milder as well, especially where ocean air moderates winter cold.

And for non-contiguous states, the story is mixed: Alaska’s station network is too sparse to confidently fill in the entire map, while Hawaii’s odds remain firmly at zero.

In other words, the classic “white Christmas” is real—but it’s also highly regional. If snow is the goal, history suggests two reliable strategies: chase colder latitudes, or climb into the mountains.

For more Christmas-related visualizations, check out this graphic which ranks Spotify’s most streamed Christmas songs on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 16:40

Watch Live: Trump Makes Announcement At Mar-A-Lago With Secretary Of War Pete Hegseth

President Trump is scheduled to make a public announcement at 4:30 p.m. EST at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida, alongside Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Secretary of the Navy John Phelan.

*TRUMP'S 4:30PM ANNOUNCEMENT TODAY IS ON SHIPBUILDING: OFFICIAL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) December 22, 2025

No details have been released about the substance of the announcement, which comes as the holiday week begins with Christmas Eve just days away.

The timing follows a flurry of defense and national security developments. Last week, Trump signed the annual defense policy bill into law, authorizing roughly $900 billion for the Pentagon. Since then, the administration has escalated gunboat diplomacy in the Caribbean, raised new national security concerns over offshore wind farms, and sparked diplomatic backlash after appointing a special envoy, which prompted an angry response from Denmark’s foreign minister earlier today.

It is worth noting that The Epoch Times expects the announcement to focus on shipbuilding, a fitting topic given the Pentagon's strategic repositioning across the Western world and the increased emphasis on hemispheric defense. We have informed readers about how Goldman is profiting from this historic realignment (see here).

Given the news flow, here are several topics Trump, Hegseth, and Phelan could address:

• Trump signs defense policy bill into law

• Hunting Season: US Forces Target Third 'Dark Fleet' Tanker Near Venezuela

• Trump Wants New "Golden Fleet" Of Future Battleships For Hemispheric Defense

• Leases For Five Offshore Wind Projects Suspended Over Radar-Related National Security Concerns

• Denmark Furious After Trump Names Special Envoy To Greenland

Watch Live:

.  .  . 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 16:25

"Power That Goes Unpunished Only Learns One Lesson: It Can Do Whatever It Wants..."

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

Seeing Is Believing (Not)

"...power that goes unpunished only learns one lesson: it can do whatever it wants."

- Roger Stone

Has it occurred to you that the video footage of the hallway outside Jeffrey Epstein’s prison cell that shows nobody coming or going around the hour that he “killed himself” could be fake? All authorities from the FBI to The New York Times pretend that the date-and-time stamped video is authentic, and that it proves nobody went into his cell to kill him. Nobody has questioned this. How difficult would it be to take a few hours of alternate closed-circuit TV footage of the same drab hallway from the same position, making sure nobody got on-camera, and then stick a fabricated date-and-time stamp on it? Do you suppose that the intel agencies don’t have the capacity to fabricate that sort of evidence?

At this point, seeing what the capabilities are for AI to compose any kind of picture — or even what years’ old Photoshop programs can do — why would you suppose that anything in the Epstein files now being released might not be subject to fiddling by persons and parties with an interest? Even one second of video showing a notable person in somebody’s arms, or performing an illicit act with a child, a mere glimpse of such a thing, would be A) easy to manufacture, and B) guaranteed to create a mighty shit-storm of a political crisis that would steal everybody’s attention from now until the Rockies tumble.

The Epstein files looks like the end of the seeing-is-believing phase of human history. Whatever dazzling fakes you’re watching on “X” these days, consider that the deep fake abilities of government agencies are a mile ahead of commercially-available AI tech that any jamoke on TikTok can use. I wouldn’t believe a single goshdarn thing coming out of these files that preoccupy the nation right now — while many momentous events unfold at home and around the world unnoticed, or get crowded out by the hoo-hah over Jeffrey Epstein’s sketchy doings. The further forward in time this goes, the worse you can expect it to get.

And why wouldn’t it be in the intel community’s interest to keep this hoo-hah going as long and hard as possible, so as to distract the public from some of the other problems besetting the republic — such as the intel community’s obdurately sociopathic and seditious activities against that very republic?

Talk might be cheap, too, but there’s plenty of chatter on the Internet these days to the effect that a claque of players with familiar names, currently under suspicion of major misdeeds, are secretly running critical sections of the government as a kind of rogue directorate.

For instance, former CIA Director John Brennan, whose front-job for years has been as a “national security contributor” to MSNBC/NBC.

Do you suppose he sits around his home-office all the livelong day and doesn’t talk to any of his old colleagues? How else would he acquire any “national security” info to report on cable TV? And might you wonder whether these conversations, if they occur, include not just queries and postulations but instructions? That is, orders. . . for people to carry out such-and-such activities? Or suggestions of orders?

And, of course, John Brennan is just one character in a basket of deplorable former intel officials who conceivably wield influence, or issue orders, in the vast turbid, stagnant, septic backwaters of America’s intel swamp.

To name a few: Jim Clapper, Michael Hayden, Mike Pompeo, Avril Haines, Leon Panetta, Gina Haspel. Just add the rest of the list of bigshots who signed the infamous 2020 Hunter Biden / Russian disinfo “open letter.”

And dozens more including a big gang of ex-FBI and DOJ with cases pending for activities that have the shape and smell of a coup to overthrow the US government (that they served.

Do you suppose any of them might have an interest in stirring the pot of cognitive dissonance that is making it nearly impossible for the people of this land to understand what the fuck is going on around them?

You’ve got to wonder what John Ratcliffe thinks about all this (and about the 21,000 employees of the CIA he supposedly directs). And what Tulsi Gabbard knows about the sundry communications flying around the American digital ether.

And what fresh treachery is yet being launched by this coterie of scoundrels. And now imagine how difficult life must be for one President Donald Trump. Just sayin’.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 16:15

Maduro Must Go, DHS Secretary Noem Says, Vows More Tanker Intercepts

Washington is making clear - in case there was still lingering confusion in anyone's mind - that we have entered the "Maduro must go" phase of looming regime change operations targeting Venezuela.

A fresh Monday statement from Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem makes clear that "We're not just interdicting these ships, but we’re also sending a message around the world that the illegal activity that Maduro is participating in cannot stand, he needs to be gone, and that we will stand up for our people."

Source: @Sec_Noem

"This is an enemy of the United States that we're taking strong action against, and our Coast Guard is doing a rock-star job going out there and interdicting these ships safely, but also sending a strong message that we will stop this flow and we will continue to stand up for our country," Noem said.

The Coast Guard falls directly under Noem’s jurisdiction, and while it has been the Pentagon doing the drug boat strikes with drones, the Coast Guard has been seeking to intercept and take control of a third 'illicit' tanker in waters off Venezuela.

Sources have told Bloomberg that US forces are still in pursuit of the Bella 1 tanker, which was en route to Venezuela to be loaded with oil. Amid conflicting reports that it had been boarded by American troops, US officials later told The New York Times that the Bella 1 refused to be boarded and fled to the northeast, into the Atlantic Ocean.

It remains unclear whether the Bella 1 will ultimately "get away" or not:

U.S. forces approached the Bella 1 late on Saturday. But it refused to be boarded, instead turning and creating what one U.S. official described as “an active pursuit.”

By Sunday, the Bella 1 was still fleeing the Caribbean and was broadcasting distress signals to nearby ships, according to radio messages reviewed by The New York Times and first posted online by a maritime blogger. The vessel was traveling northeast into the Atlantic Ocean, more than 300 miles away from Antigua and Barbuda, the messages showed. By Sunday evening, Bella 1 had sent over 75 alerts.

It is not clear what steps the United States is taking to pursue the ship. The White House said Mr. Trump would make an announcement on Monday afternoon with his defense secretary and his navy secretary but provided no indication of the subject.

These tanker interdict actions have clearly been stepped up, and more will likely follow, raising the stakes also as China and Russia could react with strong condemnations:

The Coast Guard on Saturday stopped and boarded the Centuries, a tanker that had recently loaded Venezuelan oil, reportedly for a Chinese trader. The U.S. authorities did not have a seizure warrant for the Panamanian-flagged vessel and said they were verifying the validity of its registration. It was unclear how long the ship would be detained.

On Dec. 10, the United States had seized another tanker, the Skipper, which was transporting Venezuelan crude but had earlier carried Iranian oil. The Skipper has been escorted to Galveston, Texas.

This month the US strikes on alleged trafficking boats have have killed about 100 people total since early September. While these actions have remained deeply controversial, denounced in many quarters as 'extra-judicial killings' - Congress has essential neutered itself.

NY Times: the tanker the US seized today, called "the Centuries, is not on a list of tankers under U.S. sanctions that is publicly maintained by the Treasury Department. The people inside Venezuela’s oil industry said the cargo belongs to an established China-based oil trader… pic.twitter.com/UXNkKBKgUq

— Steve Lookner (@lookner) December 20, 2025

Recent bills before the House have sought war powers for Congress, which would have required President Trump to seek Congressional approval for further military action; however, these efforts have been voted down, and the strike down was largely bipartisan.

* * *

Enter the "days are numbered" rhetoric on Venezuelan strongman Maduro. There's been speculation he could flee to places like Qatar or even Russia, like someone else did a year ago...

via Enab Baladi Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 15:45

Trump Ditches 'The Weave', Delivers Sales Pitch Susie Wiles Asked For

Authored by Philip Wegmann via The RealClearPolitics,

White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles directed President Trump to the teleprompter to deliver specific and scripted remarks in prime-time – rather than the off-the-cuff kind he favors on the stump – about affordability, the accomplishments of his first term, and the challenges ahead.

He delivered a rally speech in miniature Wednesday night, minus only his signature “weave.” Said the president of the myriad of problems facing the nation from high prices and lingering inflation to rising rents and unaffordable healthcare, “It’s not the Republicans’ fault – it’s the Democrats’ fault.” That was the throughline of the entire message. And it is one his party was desperate for him to deliver as they anxiously await the midterm elections next year.

While Trump provide little that was new in terms of policy, the president did change his tone. He admitted that problems persist for everyday Americans despite his best efforts.

“Eleven months ago, I inherited a mess,” he said of his predecessor, President Joe Biden, then immediately added “and I am fixing it.” A long list of accomplishments followed. Among them: Wages are up, inflation down, and the border sealed. Like a chairman of a corporate board delivering an end-of-year report, he ran through a list of promises made on the campaign and promises kept once returned to the White House.

“We’re doing what nobody thought was even possible, not even remotely possible. There has never, frankly, been anything like it,” he said, repeating a popular line from his rallies. “One year ago, our country was dead. We were absolutely dead. Our country was ready to fail – totally failed. Now we’re the hottest country anywhere in the world.”

The president relishes the role of a cheerleader. It has led to blind spots, however, as his long-promised “Golden Age” has yet to trickle down to lower and middleclass tables. Yes, he succeeded in getting many of his marquee domestic policy priorities, encapsulated in the One Big Beautiful Bill, into law. No, the public is still not feeling it despite his insistence on an American renaissance. So say the polls.

Trump remains underwater with more Americans now disapproving, 53.8%, than approving, 43.6%, of his job performance. More worrisome for the White House, according to the RealClearPolitics Average, a majority of the country, 62.8%, disapprove of how Trump has handled inflation even as inflation has mostly stabilized one year into his second stint as president.

Inflation dropped to just 2.8% over the past year compared to its peak under Biden at 9%. Wages have increased as well, and some prices, like the cost of a gallon of gas or a dozen eggs, have come down. Despite those changes, Trump found himself in a position similar to that of Biden when he insisted that the economy remained healthy even as the public did not feel the improvement.

And like the president before him, Trump asked for patience in so many words. The best, he said, was yet to come: “We are poised for an economic boom, the likes of which the world has never seen.”

One thing Trump did not say? He did not argue that affordability amounted to “a Democratic hoax.” Earlier this month in Pennsylvania, he repeated that line before adding a canned explanation about how believing Democrats on questions of the economy was akin to “trusting Bonnie and Clyde with public safety.” The cheerleader in chief instead recognized on Wednesday night that Americans are feeling pain and promised speedy relief, especially come tax season.

Christmas will come in April, the president argued as he touted no tax on tips, no taxes on overtime, and no tax on Social Security benefits. “Under these cuts, many families will be saving between $11,000 and $20,000 a year,” he said, “and next spring is projected to be the largest tax refund season of all time.”

Democrats did not make much of Trump’s deflections.

“People are tired of him trying to throw President Joe Biden under the bus,” said House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. During an interview on MS NOW (formerly MSNBC), the Democrat argued that Trump owned the anxieties of the current economy. “What’s been clear in public opinion, survey after public opinion survey, the American people know this is Donald Trump’s economy. This is the Republicans’ economy. And it’s been a complete and total disaster.”

Republicans are hoping that voters make up their minds as they file their tax returns, perhaps none more so than Speaker Mike Johnson who believes that tax cuts will “turbocharge the economy” and help him keep his House majority in the process. That’s not likely, however. Only two presidents in the last century, Franklin Delano Roosevelt and George W. Bush, have added to their congressional majority during midterm elections.

A foreign war could make that already difficult task much harder. Before the speech began, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was spotted by reporters pacing outside of the Oval Office. His presence fueled speculation that perhaps Trump would announce a further military escalation in the conflict with Venezuela. The administration continues to sink alleged drug boats coming from that country, and this week the president announced a blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers. But there was no new announcement. Caracas was absent from Trump’s remarks, other than a passing reference to ongoing actions against the cartels.

Families of U.S. service members likely gave a sigh of relief at that fact. Members of the military, meanwhile, cheered at the one bit of news that Trump delivered.

“Military service members will receive a special, what we call a ‘warrior dividend’ before Christmas – a warrior dividend,” he said. “In honor of our nation’s founding in 1776 we are sending every soldier $1,776.”

A one-time check is not likely to reverse ongoing fear about the economy. Trump’s populist project hangs in the balance if the national mood does not improve and Republicans do not defy history. Speaker Johnson has been blunt on this front. “If we don’t win the midterm,” the speaker said of Trump in an interview with RealClearPolitics last month, “he won’t have four years of a presidency. It will end at two.”

A number of House Republicans have already announced their retirement, among them Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene – once a stalwart Trump ally. She delivered the White House a stark warning in the form of a stinging rebuke last month during an interview with CBS News.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 15:25

Iran Holds Surprise Missile Drills Near Cities Amid Fears Of New Israel War

Iran on Monday is conducting live missiles drills across several areas and cities, with officials telling the world the military will remain steadfast in defending the country and that its missile program is strictly defensive.

The semi-official Fars news agency confirmed that missile tests were observed in multiple locations, among them Tehran, Isfahan, Mashhad, Khorramabad and Mahabad. Videos were also widely circulated of missiles soaring through the air, visible from urban centers.

Illustrative missile test file image.

"Iran’s defensive capabilities are by no means an issue that can be discussed," Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei stated Monday, at a moment of high tensions with Israel, which has denounced the Islamic Republic's ballistic missile program.

The timing is interesting given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump days ago confirmedd they are scheduled to meet December 29 at the Mar-a-lago estate in Florida.

Netanyahu is expected to press his US counterpart on greenlighting possible new strikes on Iranian ballistic missile sites, which Israel says constitutes a threat to the whole region. The US would unlikely directly back such a plan especially at moment its eye is focused on Venezuela.

All of this has sparked concerns that Israel could see the new Iranian test launches as a direct threat, given hundreds of Iranian missiles and drones rained down on Israeli cities and bases during the June 12-day war.

Axios, for example, reports that "Israeli officials warned the Trump administration over the weekend that an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps missile exercise could be preparations for a strike on Israel, according to three Israeli and U.S. sources with knowledge of the issue."

NEW: Missile-related activity reported across Iran, including loud sounds near Khorramabad and missile trails over Mashhad and other cities.

IRGC is likely holding a missile exercise. pic.twitter.com/vG7Y5O4jKA

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 22, 2025

An Israeli official was cited as saying, "The chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise."

And yet this is precisely what Tehran has now projecting - that it's actions are 'defensive' in nature and that it does not act in the way of an aggressor. 

A further alarming statement from the Axios report is in the following: "The sources said the biggest risk is a war between Israel and Iran will break as a result of a miscalculation with each side thinking the other plans to attack and try to preempt it."

The June war itself began as a surprise attack by Israel, which the US supported with its own follow-up bombings of three nuclear sites. Tehran was on the very eve of the conflict engaged in good faith negotiations with Washington, and has since complained of the betrayal and obliteration of any shred of trust.

Between the lines: The sources said the biggest risk is a war between Israel and Iran will break as a result of a miscalculation with each side thinking the other plans to attack and try to preempt it https://t.co/y7NdE224nG

— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) December 22, 2025

President Trump then touted that he oversaw a ceasefire, and likely US officials behind the scenes pressured Israeli to admit the complete 'obliteration' of Iran's nuclear program, though this remains anything but certain or verified.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 15:05

23 US States Are At High Risk Of (Or In) Recession Currently

U.S. GDP is made up of many smaller, distinct state economies fueling national growth.

In 2025, states responsible for about a third of U.S. GDP are in recession, or face high recession risk.

Another third are expanding, including Florida and Utah, based on payrolls, employment, and other key economic data.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows recession risk by state in 2025, based on analysis from Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

Where Recession Risk is Highest in America

To analyze recession risk, Zandi looks at state-level economic activity. This included a range of data such as unemployment, building permits, retail sales, industrial activity, delinquency rates, and tax revenues.

States were then categorized into three buckets based on these factors as of October 2025:

• In Recession/High Risk

• Treading Water

• Expanding

State/District Business Cycle Status Share of U.S. GDP (%) Georgia In Recession/High Risk 3.03 Montana In Recession/High Risk 0.25 Wyoming In Recession/High Risk 0.18 Michigan In Recession/High Risk 2.44 Massachusetts In Recession/High Risk 2.73 Mississippi In Recession/High Risk 0.53 Minnesota In Recession/High Risk 1.70 Kansas In Recession/High Risk 0.80 Rhode Island In Recession/High Risk 0.28 Delaware In Recession/High Risk 0.34 Washington In Recession/High Risk 3.02 Illinois In Recession/High Risk 3.85 West Virginia In Recession/High Risk 0.36 New Hampshire In Recession/High Risk 0.42 Maryland In Recession/High Risk 1.86 Virginia In Recession/High Risk 2.66 South Dakota In Recession/High Risk 0.25 Connecticut In Recession/High Risk 1.27 Oregon In Recession/High Risk 1.14 Iowa In Recession/High Risk 0.86 New Jersey In Recession/High Risk 2.93 Maine In Recession/High Risk 0.33 District of Columbia In Recession/High Risk 0.64 Missouri Treading Water 1.54 Ohio Treading Water 3.14 Hawaii Treading Water 0.39 Arkansas Treading Water 0.65 New Mexico Treading Water 0.49 Tennessee Treading Water 1.87 New York Treading Water 7.92 Vermont Treading Water 0.16 Alaska Treading Water 0.24 Colorado Treading Water 1.92 California Treading Water 14.50 Nevada Treading Water 0.86 South Carolina Expanding 1.18 Texas Expanding 9.41 Oklahoma Expanding 0.92 Idaho Expanding 0.43 Kentucky Expanding 0.99 Alabama Expanding 1.10 Indiana Expanding 1.81 Nebraska Expanding 0.63 North Carolina Expanding 2.86 Louisiana Expanding 1.11 Florida Expanding 5.78 North Dakota Expanding 0.26 Pennsylvania Expanding 3.54 Arizona Expanding 1.88 Wisconsin Expanding 1.53 Utah Expanding 1.02

Currently, many coastal, Northeastern states are facing some of the worst economic conditions.

In Maine, for instance, year-over-year GDP growth is just 0.8% as of Q2 2025, compared to the U.S. average of 2.1%. Meanwhile, Washington, D.C.’s unemployment rate was 6.4% in July, significantly higher than the 4.6% U.S. average given sweeping federal cuts.

According to Zandi’s analysis, New York and California are “Treading Water”, together responsible for driving over 22% of U.S. GDP.

In comparison, Texas, which fuels 9.4% of U.S. economic growth is expanding. Unemployment rates of 4.0% in July remain below the U.S. average. Additionally, the Texas economy is growing faster than the nation, while income growth rose 6.3% annually as of Q2 2025, outpacing the national average.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on unemployment by state in 2025.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 14:25

Insane Financial Imbalances And Social Revolution

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

A rebalancing of the economy and society will ultimately prove very positive, but first we must navigate the model collapse of insane financial extremes.

I've endeavored to explain how self-referential models veer into hallucinations that are accepted as accurate reflections of the real world. Models are by definition synthetic abstractions of the real world, and as these "train" on their own output, they drift away from authentic understanding without the users being aware that their "world" is both artificial and self-reinforcing: each iteration reinforces their belief in the model's accuracy.

Patient users of AI programs can force AI to admit its output was a hallucination, at which point AI tends to abjectly apologize. But human pride--especially strong among those with high opinions of their intelligence and mastery of life--precludes recognition of catastrophic error (i.e. believing in a hallucination) and apologizing for the error.

Human hubris leads us to double-down when faced with evidence we've placed our faith in a hallucination. We deny that our system/model is a self-reinforcing hallucination even as we go over the falls. The faint cries of "save me!" are short-lived.

Models collapse from their own internal dynamics. They don't need our approval. Our disapproval doesn't stop their collapse. Our choices boil down to 1) go over the falls as models collapse; 2) snap out of the hallucination or 3) enter the netherworld of hyper-normalization, the state of mind where we embrace two contradictory "truths": the hallucination is forever and we're not surprised when it collapses.

Model collapse manifests in many ways: people and systems break down. Anti-social behaviors become normalized, and extremes are accepted as normal as we habituate to dysfunction and breakdowns.

I call this Anti-Progress: what we're sold as "progress" actually reduces our quality of life. In my book The Mythology of Progress, I describe Progress as a powerful mythology, but it can also be understood as a model that is collapsing into a hallucination we cling to with hubristic tenacity.

In everyday life, these extremes manifest as Ultra-Processed Life, a synthetic world in which artificial substitutes have replaced authentic life and experiences because the model increases profits via unhealthy addictions in both the consumer and digital realms.

But people break down in this Mouse Utopia of ultra-processed abundance, and the model's self-reinforcing iterations veer ever farther from authentic experiences.

Which brings us to my latest podcast with Richard Bonugli, Insane Financial Imbalances and a Social Revolution (36:34 min). The word "insane" is jarring, for the dominant model of the global order holds that financial extremes are not just sane, they're proof that all is well, and so calling these extremes "insane" is what's insane.

This is classic model collapse: up until the point of breakdown, the model seems to be functioning perfectly, because being self-referential, there is no other possible output other than the system is performing nominally.

In my new book Investing In Revolution, I describe the two structural flaws in the current model: 1) due to its success in generating abundance, the model's adaptive capacity has decayed, leaving it incapable of adapting to rapidly changing real-world conditions, and 2) the dominance of the financial model has fatally imbalanced society and the economy, an extreme imbalance that will be rebalanced by the pendulum swinging to the opposite extreme.

I call this systemically predictable rebalancing a social revolution, as meet the new boss, same as the old boss is no longer sufficient: the values and incentives that maintain a sustainable balance between society and the economy must change. This Reformation is not financial or political, it is fundamentally social in nature.

This imbalance is visible in the widening divide between the share of the economy going to labor and capital: wage earners' share has been declining for decades, reducing their capacity to afford a secure quality of life without piling up debt:

The earnings generated by ownership of capital go mostly to the very top of the wealth-power pyramid: the majority of income from capital flows to the top 0.25%, with the rest dribbling down to the top 5%.

The bottom 50%'s share of financial assets amounts to signal noise--2.6%.

This imbalance is so extreme that it will catalyze social disorder, yet to call it unsustainable is "insane."

The health of the non-elites has reached crisis levels, yet this too is unremarkable because the model has a "solution": more costly medications that must be taken for life: highly profitable, so all is well.

The hallucination that this is all wonderfully sustainable reveals the dominance of the financial model of how the world works. That society is breaking down is of no concern because natural gas is so abundant that we can easily power up AI data centers, and GDP is rising.

The problem is we only manage what we measure, and all the financial analysis "trains" on its own output. Those staring at screens of soaring stocks and corporate profits declare this is the best possible world while the social order breaks down around them.

A rebalancing of the economy and society will ultimately prove very positive, but first we must navigate the model collapse of insane financial extremes, extremes that are unrecognized in the current hallucination. The collision of the self-reinforcing hallucination with the real world will be challenging.

If we accept that the dominant models have lost their capacity to adapt, and that the imbalance between economic forces and society have reached extremes that demand rebalancing, we can return to the real world in good order. If we cling to the hallucination, then over the falls we will go.

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free) Check out my updated Books and Films. Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 14:05

Dave Chappelle Says Charlie Kirk "Was No MLK" In New Netflix Special

Sometimes comedians fall flat, especially when they write jokes about a recently murdered person without understanding the fundamental facts of their life.  Is it possible to make comedy about a recent assassination and be legitimately funny?  Probably.  However, Chappelle missed a golden opportunity to expose some truth and instead tried to play it safe and ride the political fence. 

In Chappelle's latest Netflix comedy special entitled "The Unstoppable", the comedian touched on the issue of Kirk's murder but never provided any profound insights.  He did try to put himself in Kirk's shoes, admitting his fears that he could end up in the same position due to his criticisms of trans ideology.

"This is another reason it’s hard to talk in America, ’cause, you know, if you talk for a living and see Charlie Kirk get murdered that way, I’m gonna be honest, ni*ga, I was shook. I mean, Charlie Kirk is the wholesome white guy, and they killed this motherfucker."  

"...When all the information was still shoddy, they came out, they were like, ‘Apparently, there were transgender messages inscribed on the bullets.’ I was like, ‘Oh no! I’m dead as fried chicken!’"

The brass cases were actually inscribed with Antifa slogans and a "furry" meme, though the prime suspect, Tyler Robinson, is a far-left gay man who was living with his transgender boyfriend at the time.  According to the charging record, Robinson's conservative parents confronted him about the killing and said that he confessed to committing the crime.  They convinced him to surrender to police after he indicated he might commit suicide.    

It's unfortunate that Chappelle so carefully avoided the elephant in the room by ignoring this fact, as well as the widespread celebration among leftists over Kirk's death.

In the wake of the event there was a relentless progressive propaganda campaign designed to misinform the American public that Tyler Robinson is a "MAGA conservative" instead of a gay leftist.  This culminated in a propaganda screed by another "comedian", Jimmy Kimmel, who used his network platform to spread the same falsehoods.  Chappelle defended Kimmel instead of acknowledging why his show was punished by the network. 

Like Kirk, Chappelle also faced an attack when a gay man carrying a knife rushed him on stage because of a routine about transgender people.  The comedian says he is now fearful of going on stage and being killed.

"My voice has become more powerful than I intended it to be, and I cannot let these n*ggas do me like Charlie Kirk. Or even worse than that, what if these n*ggas trip me up somehow, co-opt me, and then make me say the things that they want me to say? We can't have that."

Chappelle also claimed that "white people" compared Charlie Kirk to Martin Luther King, and then he mocked the notion. 

Dave Chappelle trashes Charlie Kirk in his new standup special, acting like Charlie was purely an online influencer instead of someone who toured and shared his message in person and amplified those IRL interactions via social media pic.twitter.com/h1fA6v6yWb

— Breitbart News (@BreitbartNews) December 20, 2025

Critics argue that comparing Kirk to MLK was never an actual point of contention among conservatives (or white people in general) and that Chappelle has constructed a strawman to pander to liberals and "centrists." 

Chappelle calls Kirk an "internet personality" and seems completely oblivious to his numerous campus talks and the size and scope of the Turning Point USA movement.  If there are any similarities (beyond assassination) between MLK and Kirk, it is that they both engaged with the public and students regularly on college campuses to defend their ideals. 

And, if we're talking about religious devotion or Christian virtue, at least Kirk was faithful to his wife.  MLK was a notorious adulterer.

It should be mentioned that Charlie Kirk defended Dave Chappelle's comedy routines on the transgender issue when Chappelle was facing career cancellation by the political left.  He also condemned the lack of charges against the man who attacked Chappelle onstage, warning that it would encourage further political violence. 

Dave Chappelle exposes the truth about trans as only he can. This is brilliant. WATCH: pic.twitter.com/bV71LaM6E1

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) January 1, 2024

The very idea that comedians today have a fear of violent reprisal for political jokes shows that, unfortunately, assassinations can be very effective in squelching free speech simply by compelling people to self censor.  Leftists know this well, it's the reason they cheered for Kirk's death and called for more killings. 

Chappelle, like most celebrities, may be greatly overestimating his political influence.  If Charlie Kirk is no MLK, then Dave Chappelle is definitely no Charlie Kirk.  That said, the weak response by public figures like Chappelle against the political left's violence only emboldens them.   

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 13:45

Yields Hit Session Highs After Poor, Tailing 2Y Auction Sees Lowest Foreign Demand Since 2023

It's the last treasury auction week of the year, and due to upcoming holidays, we are running on an accelerated scheduled which means the 2Y auction which usually takes placed on Tuesday, is Monday's business instead. It was a subpar auction with modest demand; overall grade - not great, not terrible.

The auction of $69BN in 2Y paper stopped at a high yield of 3.499%, up 1bp from last month's 3.489%, and tailed the When Issued by 0.3bps, the biggest tail for the short-end since April's 0.6bps tail. It followed a series of what had been mostly stopping through auctions throughout 2025. 

The bid to cover was 2.543, down from 2.684 in November and the lowest since September; it was also below the 6-auction average of 2.623.

The internals were also mediocre at best, with Indirects awarded just 53.21, down from 58.07 and the lowest since March 2023. And with Directs taking down 34.05%, higher than November's 30.74% and above the recent average of 31.69%, Dealers were left holding 12.74% of the sale, the most since June.

Overall, this was a soft, subpar auction, with weak demand metrics, confirmed by the jump in 10y yields to session highs after the break. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 13:32

A Christmas Carol For The Markets, 2025 Edition

By Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy at Rabobank

As the year draws to a close, Ebenezer “Macro” Scrooge looks back on an eventful 2025. Sitting alone in his glass-walled office on Christmas Eve, the city below twinkling like a Bloomberg terminal in night mode. His screens glowed with charts: yield curves steepening, equities hitting all-time highs, and a lonely alert blinking – “Critical raw materials shortage: nutmeg unavailable.”

“Bah, tariffs!” he grumbled, stabbing at his keyboard. “Christmas is inefficient. If only people understood the beauty of a well-balanced trade account.”

The year had been brutal on his nerves: Trump’s tariff threats in January, the April Global Tariff Shock. And even if the US Supreme Court decides to annul those tariffs, refunding the collected import tariffs would create a “major problem”, Kevin Hassett, US economic policy advisor and shortlisted for replacing Powell, noted over the weekend.

And the list goes on… China’s rare earth export controls in October, and wars that rattled energy markets. Even Scrooge’s Christmas tree had become a macroeconomic case study – 15% pricier thanks to US import tariffs. And the cake for this week’s party? Delayed because nutmeg and cinnamon were now a geopolitical pawn. The EU and China aren’t of much help either. EU-China relations have changed dramatically this year: yesterday China levied tariffs of up to 42.7% on some dairy products from the bloc.  And thinking about getting stuff from the North to the South pole? Well, shipping isn’t what it used to be!

As the clock struck midnight, a chill swept through the room. Suddenly, a shimmering figure appeared – the Ghost of Christmas Past, dressed in a suit stitched from old bond certificates.

“Ebenezer,” the ghost intoned, “look back at 2025.”

The office dissolved into January’s chaos: Trump inaugurated, markets jittering at threats of 25% tariffs on autos and semiconductors. February brought German elections and a €500bn debt-fuelled spending spree. April’s tariff shock loomed large, sending reciprocal tariffs ricocheting across continents. In the UK, Reform UK may, someday, Reform the Bank. And France still has got no 2026 budget! Scrooge watched traders panic, algorithms whirring like snowblowers in a storm.

“Remember the fear?” the ghost asked. “Yet markets proved resilient. AI investments and consumer spending kept growth alive. Oil prices have kept falling; the US blockade of Venezuelan oil has only dented that move. And even Europe, with its post-NATO summit defence roadmap and green-tech push, surprised you.”

Scrooge snorted. “Resilient? My stress index hit a record high.”

Before he could argue, the Ghost of Christmas Present appeared – a lively spirit juggling ornaments labelled “Geopolitics,” “AI,” and “Interest Rates”;  It whisked him to a bustling Christmas market. Families laughed despite the higher prices of gifts and trees.

“See?” said the ghost. “People adapt. They value togetherness over tariffs. Even after war in the Middle East, after shutdowns and rare earth scares, they choose negotiations and peace at their tables. And let’s hope that is also a prospect for the Sudanese and Ukrainian people.”

Scrooge noticed a baker struggling with a half-finished cake. “Critical raw materials,” the ghost chuckled. “China’s export controls made nutmeg a luxury. But look – some kind of monetary policy will still be made and neighbours share what they have. The cake will be baked.”

“Sharing?” Scrooge frowned. “Sounds like fiscal transfers.”

The ghost winked. “Call it social capital. Higher ROI than any hedge fund.”

Finally, the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come appeared, shrouded in clouds of uncertainty like a long-term yield curve. It showed Scrooge a future where his firm ignored human values, chasing only returns. The office was empty, silent – no laughter, no warmth.

“This,” the ghost whispered, “is the cost of forgetting what matters.”

Scrooge trembled. “No! Tell me the future can change!”

He awoke on Christmas morning, heart pounding like a trader’s after a Fed rate cut announcement. Throwing open the window, he saw delivery drones buzzing in with gifts – late, but arriving. The baker waved: the cake was done, thanks to a last-minute spice swap. Scrooge smiled for the first time in years. He cancelled his meeting on tariff hedging and joined his family, raising a toast:

“To resilience – in markets and in life! May our yield curves steepen with joy, not stress.”

And so, despite a year of shocks – tariffs, wars, shutdowns, and shortages – Christmas triumphed. Not through perfect policy or flawless forecasts, but through the enduring power of connection. Even Ebenezer Macro Scrooge learned that while currencies weaken and spreads tighten, the true value lies in being present.

….

Dear reader, this was just a small selection of some of the most eye-catching developments we wrote about in 2025. With this last Global Daily, we thank you for your attention and all the feedback we have received. Our service resumes on 5 January. We look forward to do it all over again in 2026!

Happy Holidays!

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 13:25

Democratic Despotism: The American Left Moves From Censored To Compelled Speech

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

More than five years ago, I wrote in these pages of a growing trend on the left toward compelled speech - the forcing of citizens to repeat approved views and values. It is an all-too-familiar pattern. Once a faction assumes power, it will often first seek to censor opposing views and then compel the endorsement of approved views.

This week, some of those efforts faced setbacks and challenges in blue states like Washington and Illinois.

In Washington state, many have developed what seems a certain appetite for compelled speech. 

For example, Democrats recently pushed through legislation that would have compelled priests and other clerics to rat out congregants who confessed to certain criminal acts.

Despite objections from many of us that the law was flagrantly unconstitutional, the Democratic-controlled legislature and Democratic governor pushed it through.

The Catholic Church responded to the enactment by telling priests that any compliance would lead to their excommunication.

U.S. District Court Judge Iain D. Johnston enjoined the law, and the Trump Administration sued the state over its effort to turn priests into sacramental snitches. Only after losing in court did the state drop its efforts.

In the meantime, the University of Washington has been fighting to punish professors who refuse to conform to its own orthodox values. In 2022, Professor Stuart Reges triggered a firestorm when he refused to attach a prewritten “Indigenous land acknowledgement” statement to his course syllabi. Such statements are often accompanied by inclusive and tolerant language of fostering different viewpoints in an academic community. However, when Reges decided to write his own land acknowledgment, university administrators dropped any pretense of tolerance.

Reges was not willing to copy and paste onto his syllabus a statement in favor of the indigenous land claim of “the Coast Salish peoples of this land, the land which touches the shared waters of all tribes and bands within the Suquamish, Tulalip, and Muckleshoot nations.” Instead, he wrote, “I acknowledge that by the labor theory of property, the Coast Salish people can claim historical ownership of almost none of the land currently occupied by the University of Washington.”

His reference to the labor theory is a nod to John Locke, who believed in natural rights, including the right to property created through one’s labor.

In my forthcoming book, “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution,” I explore the foundations of the American Republic, including the influence of Locke. The Framers would have been appalled by efforts to compel speech as an example of “democratic despotism.”  The Framers saw the greatest danger to our system as coming not from a tyrant but the tyranny of the majority.

Reges came face-to-face with the rage of a majority faction defied. He was told that although the university land acknowledgment was optional, his own acknowledgment was not allowed because it contributed to “a toxic environment.”

This week, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled in Reges’s favor and allowed his lawsuit to move forward.

Judge Daniel Bress wrote that “student discomfort with a professor’s views can prompt discussion and disapproval. But this discomfort is not grounds for the university retaliating against the professor.”

Reges’s lawsuit, brought with the help of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression, is a major victory for free speech.

However, the desire to both silence and compel speech continues to grow in tandem.

In Illinois, Democrats have taken up the cudgel of compelled speech on the issue of abortion. Again, over objection that the law was unconstitutional, Democrats and Gov. JB Pritzker passed a law that said that all healthcare providers, including pro-life and religious pregnancy help centers, must extoll to their patients the “benefits” of abortion, even if they have faith-based objections to abortion.

The Catholic Conference of Illinois and other religious organizations are represented by the Becket Fund, a leading defender of religious liberty in the courts.

A district court recently struck down the law, but Illinois refuses to give up. It is appealing the case in the hope of forcing pro-life health professionals to espouse the benefits of abortions.

Cardinal Blase Cupich, Chicago’s archbishop, warned this week that “The Church’s pro-life mission is under attack in Illinois” and called on every Catholic to oppose “this inhumane mandate.”

Note that neither the constitutional guarantee of free speech nor that of free exercise deterred these efforts to compel speech.

It is the very face of democratic despotism as the majority brushes aside disfavored views and values as “toxic” or “harmful.”

It shows how, 250 years after our founding, the seeds for majoritarian tyranny remain in this (like in any) democratic system.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of the forthcoming “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution” on the 250th anniversary of the American Revolution.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 12:05

The post The Rich Control the Media: Whining Is Not a Strategy appeared first on CEPR.

Trump Admin Tests New Medicare Drug Pricing Pilot Programs

Authored by Jacki Thrapp via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) announced two pilot programs on Dec. 19, as the Trump administration tests new ways to lower out-of-pocket drug costs for Americans on Medicare.

An employee is seen at a Florida pharmacy in this file photo. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The first pilot program, Guarding U.S. Medicare Against Rising Drug Costs (GUARD), would apply an alternative approach to calculating prescription drugs for people on Medicare.

GUARD will examine drug prices in other countries, and if the United States discovers a drugmaker is charging more for the item in America, it may have to pay the government back.

The United States will reference prices in Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

“Existing research finds that the prices of drugs sold in the United States are much higher than the prices of the same drugs sold in other countries,” the pilot program stated.

“One study finds that overall, the U.S. health care system spends substantially more on outpatient drugs for older adults with complex conditions, such as heart failure, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), who are mostly covered by Medicare, than 11 other economically similar countries (including, for example, Australia, France, Germany, Canada, and the United Kingdom).”

The GUARD model would include drugs like antidepressants, antivirals, blood glucose regulators, cardiovascular agents, and gastrointestinal agents.

Spending on Medicare Part D drugs doubled in less than a decade, ballooning from $121 billion in 2014 to $276 billion in 2023, according to the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission (MedPAC).

The GUARD model would begin on Jan. 1, 2027, and end on Dec. 31, 2033. The “payment period” would be extended through December 2035.

The second test program, called Global Benchmark for Efficient Drug Pricing (GLOBE), will examine global price data to set patients’ out-of-pocket costs for certain drugs included in Medicare Part B, which would impact costs for treatments related to cancer, autoimmune diseases, eye disorders, and hormonal conditions.

GLOBE will launch on Oct. 1, 2026, and run through 2031.

The Dec. 19 announcement came as the Trump administration also said nine drugmakers had agreed to lower prescription drug costs in America.

“This represents the greatest victory for patient affordability in the history of American health care, by far, and every single American will benefit,” Trump said alongside health care executives at a ceremony inside the Roosevelt Room on Dec. 19.

“So, this is the biggest thing ever to happen on drug pricing and on health care. This will have a tremendous impact on health care itself.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 11:25

Russian General Killed By Car Bomb In Moscow, Marks 3rd Top Officer Assassinated In A Year

A Russian general was killed early Monday after a bomb detonated beneath his car in southern Moscow, Russian law enforcement officials have announced. The hugely provocative act, which was likely either carried out by Ukrainian operatives or allied Western intelligence (or both) marks the third killing of a high-ranking defense official over the past year.

The slain senior officer has been identified Lieutenant General Fanil Sarvarov, 56, who headed the General Staff's operational training department. He initially survived the blast but soon after succumbed to his injuries.

Investigators released video showing a severely damaged white Kia Sorento in a residential parking area near apartment blocks in Moscow's Orekhovo-Borisovo Yuzhnoye district. The doors were shown to be blown out and debris was strewn everywhere.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov later indicated that President Vladimir Putin was informed of Sarvarov's death immediately.

BBC describes that Sarvarov "previously took part in combat operations during the Ossetian-Ingush conflict and the Chechen wars in the 1990s and early 2000s, and also led operations in Syria between 2015-2016."

As for the investigation at the scene, The Moscow Times cites officials who say they are "assessing whether Ukrainian intelligence services could be linked to the incident. Ukraine, which has previously acknowledged carrying out similar attacks inside Russia, did not immediately comment."

This adds to a growing list of high profile assassinations related to the Ukraine war. To review:

—Darya Dugina was killed in a car bombing in 2022 which was likely meant for her father, prominent political thinker and often dubbed "Putin ally" Aleksandr Dugin.

—Gen Igor Kirillov died in December 2024 outside of his residence when a bomb planted in a nearby scooter detonated.

—Gen Yaroslav Moskalik, who served as deputy head of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, was killed in a car bomb attack last April. A "homemade" explosive device detonated under his Volkswagen Golf in a residential neighborhood.

Throughout the course of the war there's been a string of these high profile assassinations on Russian soil involving car and even cafe bombs.

Footage from the scene of Monday's car bomb attack, which marks the third such covert hit of a top Russian officer in a year:

Russia's Investigative Committee says a car bomb in Moscow has killed a Russian general https://t.co/kajpAQoa2L pic.twitter.com/XmWXf1H8qq

— Reuters (@Reuters) December 22, 2025

The cafe bombing had happened in April 2023, and killed prominent pro-Kremlin blogger and war correspondent Vladlen Tatarsky. The blast at a St. Petersburg cafe during a close-quarters speaking event wounded some two dozen bystanders, six of them critically.

America's CIA or Britain's MI6 has long been suspected of being involved in these targeted killings, or at least assisting in such brazen Ukrainian-linked operations, but ultimately little has been uncovered or proven in terms of a potential Western hidden hand in this ongoing 'dirty war'.

Tyler Durden Mon, 12/22/2025 - 11:05