The post The New York Times Lies for Trump: Who Needs Fox News? appeared first on CEPR.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025

A brief excerpt:

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in the Third Quarter of 2025

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.99 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2025, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The delinquency rate was up 6 basis points from the second quarter of 2025 and up 7 basis points from one year ago. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started in the third quarter rose by 3 basis points to 0.20 percent.

“Mortgage delinquencies increased in third quarter of 2025, led by worsening FHA loan performance,” said Marina Walsh, CMB, MBA’s Vice President of Industry Analysis. “Since this time last year, the FHA seriously delinquent rate – which includes 90+ day delinquencies and loans in foreclosure – increased by almost 50 basis points. In contrast, the conventional and VA seriously delinquent rates remained relatively flat.”

Added Walsh, “The stressors on FHA homeowners include a softer labor market, other personal debt obligations, and increases in taxes, homeowners’ insurance and other fees that exacerbate already stretched affordability. Additionally, home price declines in some parts of the country may lessen the ability to sell or refinance.”

Walsh also noted that while the third quarter results were not impacted by the ending of COVID-era FHA loss mitigation options and the recent government shutdown, those events may affect future quarters.

There is much more in the article.

From BofA:

Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking remains unchanged at 2.8% q/q saar. There were no tracking changes this week due to the data delay caused by the ongoing government shutdown. [November 14th estimate]
emphasis added

And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow

he GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2025 is 4.0 percent on November 6, unchanged from November 3 after rounding. [November 6th estimate]

Operation Affordability: Trump Prepares Tariff Cuts, Trade Deals To Lower Food Prices Ahead Of Midterms 

President Trump's Operation Affordability initiative kicked off this week, with the White House unveiling plans for tariff reductions and expanded trade ties with Latin American countries to boost imports of key food products. The goal: drive down supermarket prices ahead of the 2026 midterm election cycle to reverse darkening sentiment among low- and middle-income consumers.

Bloomberg reports that Trump is set to slash import levies on everyday staples, such as beef, bananas, and coffee, while moving ahead with new trade frameworks with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador. 

On Tuesday, President Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both revealed on corporate media major moves by the administration to reduce costs for Americans when it comes to food. Trump called the effort "surgical and beautiful," while Bessent said the effort will bring down prices "very quickly" and predicted that "people would start feeling better about the economy in the first half of 2026."

UBS analysts, led by Jonathan Pingle, describe President Trump's economy as "a big bet on AI and upper-income households."

Pingle noted the bifurcated consumer environment between higher-income and lower-income households in this chart.

The analyst also pointed out, "Our base case is that an equity market drawdown is avoided. Households suffer for the next two quarters."

He expects a $55 billion boost to disposable income in 2Q 2026 from retroactive tax relief in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

He said these "bumper refunds" should temporarily revive household spending in mid-2026, which is just in time for the midterm election cycle.

So Bessent is likely right that consumer sentiment will begin improving in the coming months, and this reversal is crucial. If these sentiment gauges fail to reverse, some folks may be drawn toward the newly transformed Democratic Party, now heavily influenced by Marxist-aligned DSA agenda, who aim to squander America's inheritance by dangling "free stuff" to voters.

The way to ensure the Marxist revolution stops dead in its tracks is to tackle the affordability crisis, a lingering disaster left over from the Biden-Harris years. 

The New York Times reported that updated "reciprocal tariff" rules will include carve-outs for beef and citrus, expanding on a prior executive order directing agencies to identify products not grown domestically for exemption.

New agreements with Guatemala, El Salvador, and Ecuador are reducing tariffs on products like bananas and coffee beans, which the U.S. imports but doesn't produce domestically. These frameworks should be finalized by the end of the month. 

Operation Affordability will target low- and middle-income households as well as younger voters, including Gen Z and millennials. The administration's strategy is to improve sentiment and restore affordability, with the hope that these folks will vote "America First", rather than embrace unhinged left dangling free bus rides and government-run grocery stores, in next year's midterm elections.

AOC: “We are not the crazy ones…. They want us to think we are crazy. We are sane.”

pic.twitter.com/zch0baKHg6

— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 27, 2025

It's always the ones insisting they're "not crazy" who end up being the real nutjobs.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 10:20

The post 50-Year Mortgages: What Bill Pulte Does When He Isn’t Reviewing Mortgages of Trump’s Enemies appeared first on CEPR.

Walmart Board Names Successor As Long-Time CEO McMillon Steps Down

Walmart shares moved lower in premarket trading after news that CEO Doug McMillon will retire on January 31, 2026.

Still, he will remain on the Board until the next shareholder meeting and continue advising through 2027. 

McMillon will be replaced by John Furner, 51, currently head of Walmart U.S., who has been with the company for more than 30 years, rising from an hourly associate to senior leadership roles across merchandising, operations, sourcing, Sam's Club, and international divisions.

John Furner will become Walmart’s CEO on February 1, 2026, succeeding Doug McMillon who will retire January 31, 2026 but stay on the Board through June and as an advisor through January 31, 2027. https://t.co/JFoMW47gzF pic.twitter.com/6MY2yfWmNj

— Walmart News (@WalmartNews) November 14, 2025

McMillon joined Walmart in 1984 as a teenager unloading trucks in a distribution center during the summer. He returned to Walmart in 1990 and rose through the ranks:

• 1990s to 2000s: Merchandising and leadership roles in Walmart U.S.

• 2006 to 2009: President & CEO, Sam's Club

• 2009 to 2013: President & CEO, Walmart International

• CEO of Walmart (2014–1Q26)

McMillon became Walmart's fifth CEO in 2014, and its youngest ever at 46. His leadership marked a major turning point for the retail giant, unleashing a full-scale digital overhaul, modernizing the supply chain, and repositioning Walmart for a long-term fight in the e-commerce space against Amazon.

Walmart now retiring CEO Doug McMillon on his reinvention playbook:

(V/@YahooFinance archive) pic.twitter.com/MBfTrKDvxX

— Brian Sozzi (@BrianSozzi) November 14, 2025

McMillon wrote in a statement, "Serving as Walmart's CEO has been a great honor and I'm thankful to our Board and the Walton family for the opportunity. I'm incredibly proud of what our associates accomplished and deeply grateful for their commitment to our customers, to each other and to the communities we serve. Thank you, everyone! I've worked with John for more than 20 years. His love for our associates and this company runs deep. His curiosity and digital acumen combined with a deep commitment to our people and culture will enable him to take us to the next level. He's uniquely capable of leading the company through this next AI-driven transformation. He's a merchant, an operator, an innovator, and a builder. I know that our future is bright with his leadership."

Greg Penner, Chairman of Walmart, stated, "John Furner is the right leader to guide Walmart into our next chapter of growth and transformation." 

Will Walmart get to a trillion-dollar market capitalization before McMillon's exit? 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 09:40

Letitia James Targets Condé Nast Over Firing Of Workers Accused Of Disrupting Workplace

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

New York Attorney General Letitia James has a long history of lawfare, pandering to her political base by targeting Donald Trump, the National Rifle Association, and others. Now, she is thrilling her base by promising to go after Condé Nast after the company fired four employees who had a confrontation with Condé Nast Chief People Officer Stan Duncan outside of his office.

        View this post on Instagram                      

A post shared by TheWrap (@thewrap)

As part of the confrontation, the union members demanded to know what the company was doing to stand up to Donald Trump. However, the main objection concerned layoffs.

Some of the layoffs in question were the result of a restructuring of Vogue’s operations, which included a reduction in staff. Teen Vogue is being moved into Vogue.com as part of the change. There were also layoffs at WIRED.

Union activists have objected that the majority of the editorial staffers laid off were women of color or transgender. According to the union, the move exposes “the trend of layoffs at Condé disproportionately impacting marginalized employees.”

Condé Nast is now under fire from the NewsGuild of New York for firing four of the employees involved in the confrontation with the HR chief outside his C-suite office. The Guild claims that the terminations constitute “grossly illegal tactics” and union busting.

However, the company insists that the four caused a disruption and refused repeated requests to leave the office to allow Duncan and others to work.

They will undoubtedly file grievances, but union contracts and federal laws do not give activists the right to disrupt operations anywhere at any time of their choosing.

However, James gave a speech to activists promising to intervene, declaring "When we fight, we win,” and “People, united, will never be defeated,” before suggesting the economy is “rigged against working people.” She added:

“Since when is it illegal for an individual, or individuals, to express, or recognize, their First Amendment rights? Since when is that illegal? When is it illegal to ask a question? When is it illegal to speak truth to power? When is it illegal to get answers from your employer?

To all of those who are responsible for the termination of these individuals, let me introduce myself. My name is Letitia James, otherwise known as Tish, and I am here to let you know that I stand with workers now, and I will stand with workers forever.”

James has learned that it does not matter that her efforts often collapse in court, such as her ridiculous effort to shut down the NRA.

The company has stood firm, stating, “The employment terminations were lawful and based on clear violations of company policies. We have an obligation to protect our workplace from harassment and intimidation. If the Attorney General has concerns, we are happy to respond to her.”

The video shows Bon Appétit digital producer Alma Avalle, a NewsGuild of New York leader and trans activist, confronting Duncan with Wired senior White House reporter Jake Lahut, The New Yorker senior fact-checker Jasper Lo, and Condé Nast Entertainment videographer Ben Dewey.

Notably, the company not only claims that the widely circulated videotape does not depict the most disruptive conduct, but also that it has filed three previous grievances this year with the union regarding such behavior. The company told the National Labor Relations Board that the NewsGuild of New York has carried out “repeated and egregious disregard of our collective bargaining agreement.”

The merits of these claims will have to be hashed out by the NLRB and the parties within the grievance process. However, James’s effort to insert herself into the dispute is bizarre. She is suggesting that somehow her office may target the company for downsizing staff and firing those who allegedly disrupted the workplace.

It is another ratcheting up of rhetoric against companies in New York, adding to what is viewed as an increasingly hostile environment in the city. With the election of a Democratic Socialist as mayor, many executives and residents are reportedly considering possible moves to more supportive jurisdictions.

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Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 09:20

Judge Denies Apple, OpenAI Bid To Dismiss Elon Musk's Antitrust Lawsuit

Authored by Vismaya V via Decrypt.co,

• A U.S. federal judge denied Apple and OpenAI’s motions to dismiss Elon Musk’s antitrust suit.

• The ruling allows X Corp. and xAI's claims to proceed, with Judge Mark Pittman directing the case toward summary judgment rather than early dismissal.

• The lawsuit targets Apple's exclusive ChatGPT integration into iOS, alleging it gives OpenAI access to hundreds of millions of iPhone users while blocking competitors like Grok from equal integration opportunities.

A federal judge denied Apple and OpenAI's motions to dismiss Elon Musk's antitrust lawsuit Thursday, allowing X Corp. and xAI's claims of market monopolization to proceed toward trial.

On Thursday, U.S. District Court Judge Mark Pittman rejected both companies' attempts to dismiss the case, ruling that the allegations warrant further examination through summary judgment. 

“This Order should not be construed as a judgment (or pre-judgment) on the merits of this litigation,” the ruling says.

The lawsuit, filed in August, targets Apple's June 2024 decision to make ChatGPT the exclusive AI assistant integrated into iOS.

"This is a procedural step. The real impact now is where the facts will actually be tested," Even Alex Chandra, a partner at IGNOS Law Alliance, told Decrypt. 

The case highlights "an unresolved question globally" about how "default AI integrations on dominant platforms" should be treated under antitrust law, with regulators still defining what the "AI market" even is, Chandra added. 

X Corp. and xAI's complaint seeks billions in damages, alleging the exclusive arrangement gives ChatGPT access to "hundreds of millions of iPhones" while blocking competitors like xAI's Grok chatbot. 

The lawsuit claims ChatGPT controls "at least 80 percent" of the generative AI chatbot market while Grok holds only "a few percent" despite superior capabilities.

Musk’s firms also accuse Apple of manipulating App Store rankings to favor ChatGPT while suppressing competitors. Despite Grok ranking second in Apple's "Productivity" category and X ranking first in "News," neither appears in the prominent "Must-Have Apps" section, where ChatGPT is featured.

Ishita Sharma, managing partner at Fathom Legal, told Decrypt the case hinges on "evidence of exclusion vs. efficiency,” whether rivals are "truly blocked" from Apple's iOS or if it's simply a "competitive partnership in a nascent but fast-moving market."

The defense will likely argue that "competition remains alive" across platforms and browsers, that the arrangement may not be "strictly exclusive" contractually, and that the integration delivers competitive efficiencies, Sharma added.

Decrypt has reached out to Apple, OpenAI, and X for comment.

Musk co-founded OpenAI in 2015 with Sam Altman, Greg Brockman, and Ilya Sutskever, but stepped down from its board in 2018, according to an announcement that said his departure would “eliminate a potential future conflict” as Tesla expanded its own AI work. 

Since then, Musk has accused OpenAI of ditching openness for “a closed, profit-driven arm of Microsoft” and has sued repeatedly, most notably a lawsuit over abandoning its founding mission and a suit filed two months back alleging trade secret theft.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 08:45

Futures Tumble As AI Euphoria Goes Into Reverse

It's ugly out there. Futs are sharply lower on doubts about whether the Fed will cut interest rates again in December, as fear deepens about stretched AI valuations and the debt used to fund them. S&P 500 futures are down 1% at 8:00 a.m.ET following continued unwind of momentum/AI thematic + hawkish Fed digestion (Kashkari undecided on Dec cut yesterday makes 5 officials now questioning/mkt currently pricing ~50% of Dec cut vs ~66% last Friday; more hawks today Schmid today @ 10:05am, Logan 2:30pm, Bostic 3:20pm); Nasdaq futures plunge 1.6%, pointed to a fourth consecutive day of losses in a week in which aggressively-built long positions in momentum stocks were unwound and value baskets comfortably outperformed. Pre-market, Mag 7 are all underperforming: TSLA -2.6%, NVDA -1.1%, META -0.5%. The VIX rose above 22.55, and is at session highs. Bond yields are sharply lower following a huge block of 135,000 10Y futs sold; USD was higher but then repriced sharply lower to LOD just around 7am ET. Commodities are mostly higher: oil +2.6%, sugar +1.6%. Bitcoin sank to a six-month low below $95K. This morning, we have seen a continuation of momentum unwind in the equities markets given valuation and positioning of the AI story; NVDA fell again into it earnings next week.

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven all retreated in premarket trading as doubts over an interest-rate cut in December deepened concerns about stretched valuations (Tesla -4.8%, Nvidia -3.1%, Alphabet -2.7%, Amazon -1.6%, Meta -1.5%, Microsoft -0.6%, Apple -0.1%)

• AI-related energy stocks are sliding: Bloom Energy -8%, Oklo -7.7%, NuScale Power -8%, Nano Nuclear Energy -7.3%, Plug Power -7.2%, IREN -9%
• Applied Materials (AMAT) declines 6.5%. The chip-equipment maker suffered a sales decline last quarter and predicted another drop in the current period, though the company sees demand improving in the second half of 2026.
• Avadel Pharma (AVDL) jumps 18% after the pharmaceutical company said it received an unsolicited proposal from H. Lundbeck A/S to acquire it for up to $23.00 per ordinary share.
• Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) is up 104% after Merck & Co. agreed to acquire the biotech company, which is developing a flu treatment.
• Gap Inc. (GAP) is up 1.6% after Jefferies upgraded the clothing retailer to buy from hold.
• Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) plunges 17% after the drone company’s FY25 revenue forecast missed the average analyst estimate.
• Stubhub (STUB) tumbles 19% as analysts note that it was surprising that the ticketing platform did not provide a forecast for the current quarter. It was the firm’s first quarterly report after going public in September.
• TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP) is up 0.8% after Mizuho Securities upgraded the online travel agency to neutral from underperform.
• Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) is up 2.8% after the WSJ reported Paramount, Comcast and Netflix are preparing bids for the media company, citing people familiar. Separately, the owner of HBO and CNN in a filing said CEO David Zaslav’s employment agreement was amended amid a strategic review.

In corporate news, Citigroup’s CEO Jane Fraser says her bank is growing “rapidly” in China with reviving interest from investors and companies in the world’s second largest economy. NBA star Stephen Curry is leaving Under Armour, the sportswear firm that partnered with him for more than a decade. 

One doesn't need to look at futures to see the signs of growing nervousness, with volatility in bond markets also on the rise. Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari said Thursday he didn’t support the US central bank’s last interest-rate cut, though he’s still undecided on the best course of action for its December policy meeting. Markets are now pricing in less than a 50% chance of a cut next month, down from about 63% earlier this week and over 95% a month ago. Just after 7am ET, we saw a purchase of 135K 10Y futs which slammed yields 6bps lower in minutes.

It is not just the US which are volatile this morning: UK government bonds are lower, with larger declines at the long end after reports that Chancellor Reeves dropped plans to raise headline income tax rates. Thirty-year gilt yields rise 10 bps to 5.33%. Gilts found some support after Bloomberg reported Reeves’ decision was driven by an improved fiscal forecast from the budget watchdog.

AI euphoria is facing an acute test, as investors look are finally looking at the massive borrowing to fund the technology’s buildout (something we first warned about over a month ago). Support for the three-year bull market increasingly rests with a strong earnings outlook, and especially next week's NVDA earnings. Still, foreign inflows into US equity funds are tracking at an annualized $134 billion, the second-biggest year ever after $163 billion in 2024, according to Bank of America citing EPFR Global data. US stocks saw their ninth-straight week of inflows through Nov. 12 at $6.4 billion. Meanwhile, a rotation from tech into more defensive stocks has helped the S&P 500 limit losses to just over 2% since its last record high toward the end of October, while the Nasdaq 100 has dropped nearly twice as much.

“The nervousness is palpable on markets and it stems from different corners,” said Arnaud Girod, head of economics and cross-asset strategy at Kepler Cheuvreux in Paris. “Any pushback from the Fed on interest rate cuts is bad news. If the Fed hasn’t enough data, they are likely not to cut.”

That said, while the market-cap weighted S&P has faced volatility and a recent downturn, beneath the surface, US equities remain healthy, lifting the equal-weighted index and underscoring the broader market’s reliance on, and concentration risk around, AI according to Bloomberg.

“We’ve seen tech stocks suffer the biggest repercussions each time there’s been a setback, and that’s because they trade at the frothiest valuations,” said Aneeka Gupta, director of macro research at Wisdom Tree UK. “Whenever there are question marks on whether there is a higher probability of a hawkish Fed stance, the segments that get hit the most are the highest duration ones.”

In trade news, Trump is readying substantial tariff cuts aimed at tackling high food prices and a series of new trade deals. Meanwhile an agreement with Switzerland could be close. 

European stocks are broadly lower, including in the UK where the FTSE 100 drops 1.4%. UK equities underperformed on reports of a U-turn by Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves on income tax hikes. Siemens Energy led energy stocks higher after raising guidance, while banks and tech shares were among the biggest laggards. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• Bechtle shares surge as much as 17%, the most in eight months, after the supplier of computers and office supplies reported a significant improvement in earnings in the third quarter compared to the second.
• Siemens Energy shares are up as much as 12%, the most since April, after the German energy company raised Ebitda guidance above consensus, citing strong demand for gas turbines and data center equipment.
• Richemont shares gain as much as 8.7%, the steepest advance since April, after the Swiss luxury-goods maker reported first-half results that beat analyst expectations across divisions and regions, particularly driven by strong demand for its jewelry brands.
• Orkla shares gain as much as 6.7%, the most since May, after the Norwegian consumer goods firm reported what DNB Carnegie said were slightly positive earnings.
• Alstom shares advance as much as 7.2%, the most since June, as analysts laud the company’s latest earnings as a reassuring and strong showing from the French rolling stock company.
• Bavarian Nordic shares drop as much as 7.8% to the lowest since July after the Danish vaccine maker’s revenue guidance for the full year was weaker than expected.
• Sonova shares drop as much as 6.1% to the lowest intraday since September 2020 after the Swiss hearing-aid maker reported weaker-than-expected Ebita for the first half-year.
• Swiss Re shares slip as much as 5.1%, the most since April, after posting a “mixed” quarter in the eyes of analysts.
• Goodwin shares drop as much as 12% after the Goodwin family sold 122,368 ordinary shares in the company to a limited number of institutional investors.
• Land Securities shares fall as much as 5% after the UK real estate firm reported lower-than-expected net asset value and dividends.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, led by technology-heavy markets, as concerns over lofty valuations and uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook dampened sentiment.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 1.7% on Friday to head for its biggest decline since April. Technology megacaps including TSMC, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics were the major drags. South Korea posted the steepest loss in the region, while Japan’s Nikkei 225, Taiwan’s Taiex index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index all dropped over 1.5%.  In China, economic activity cooled more than expected at the start of the fourth quarter, with an unprecedented slump in investment and slower growth in industrial output adding to a drag from sluggish consumption. The onshore CSI 300 Index closed 1.6% lower, the most in nearly a month. 

“The market sell off is mainly driven by disappointing macro economic data and increasing concern on leading e-commerce companies profitability,” said Jason Chan, senior investment strategist at Bank of East Asia in Hong Kong. “Also, many cities in Fujian province announced the trade-in subsidy of auto will be suspended in November, which heightens policy uncertainty on consumption stimulus.”

In FX, the BBG Dollar index saw a sudden airpocket led by yield differentials as 10Y yields tumbled 6bps just after 7am ET. The pound pared losses but remains down 0.4%.

In rates, treasuries erased losses in early US trading amid a curve-steepening rout in gilts, where reports that UK government will drop a proposed income tax increase have sparked jitters about its fiscal credibility. US yields retreated from session highs reached during the gilt selloff as US stock index futures slide, led by European equity markets. Front-end Treasury yields are lower by 2bp-3bp with long-end tenors little changed, steepening 2s10s and 5s30s spreads; 10-year, about 2bp lower on the day near 4.10%, peaked near 4.14% as UK 10-year yield surged as much as 13bp. UK yields remain cheaper by 4bp-10bp across a steeper curve after reports that Chancellor Rachel Reeves will drop a widely-expected income-tax increase in this month’s budget. US session includes three scheduled Fed speakers, while economic data continues to be delayed as the US government recuperates from its record-length shutdown.

In commodities, oil prices jump after a drone strike damaged an oil depot and a vessel at Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. WTI crude rises 2.6% to near $60.20 a barrel. Gold slips about $9 to $4,162 an ounce, while Bitcoin falls 1.8% to around $97,000.

US economic calendar expected to continue to face delays as government reopens; October retail sales and PPI were scheduled to be released Friday. Fed speaker slate includes Schmid (10:05am), Logan (2:30pm) and Bostic (3:20pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -1.2%
• DAX -0.9%
• CAC 40 -0.9%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.13%
• VIX +1.2 points at 21.2
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1217.34
• euro -0.1% at $1.1616
• WTI crude +2.8% at $60.31/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The White House unveiled trade deals with Argentina, Ecuador, Guatemala, and El Salvador as part of an initiative to reduce food prices/ address affordability challenges for American consumers. FT
• Ukrainian drones attacked Russia’s giant Black Sea port of Novorossiysk overnight, prompting a state of emergency. Moscow launched a massive air strike on Kyiv that killed four and damaged several residential buildings. BBG
• NEC Director Hassett said he expects to see 60k job losses due to the government shutdown, while he responded that the numbers they have are consistent with more rate cuts, when asked about inflation.
• Signs of weakness in China’s economy stretched into October, with one measure of investment notching the sharpest slowdown in years. Retail sales was about inline at +2.9% (vs. the Street +2.8% and down from +3% in Sept) while industrial production fell short at +4.9% (vs. the Street +5.5% and down from +6.5% in Sept) and fixed asset and property investment declined at one of the sharpest rates in years. WSJ
• Sir Keir Starmer and Reachel Reeves have ditched their manifesto-busting plan to increase income tax rates, in a dramatic U-turn ahead of the Budget on Nov 26 that sparked a sell of in the gilt mkt. FT
• China’s unreported gold purchases could be more than 10x its official figures as it quietly tries to diversify away form the USD, highlighting the increasingly opaque sources of demand behind bullion’s record-breaking rally. FT
• Brazil hopes to reach a preliminary agreement with the US as soon as this month. India and Canada will work together to secure supply chains in critical minerals and clean energy, signaling a reset in bilateral ties. BBG
• Canada’s forestry industry plans to divert a significant shares of its wood exports from the US to new intl mkts, claiming that Trump’s latest trade tariffs will lead to lumber shortages and drive up building costs in America. FT
• Palantir is planning a “significant investment” in the UK to win military contracts, even as the software company has complained about slow traction in Europe.
• Paramount, Comcast and Netflix are preparing bids for Warner Bros. Discovery. WSJ

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump's administration is preparing tariff exemptions in a bid to lower food prices, according to NYT
• US Secretary of State Rubio met with Brazil's Foreign Minister and discussed a reciprocal framework for the US-Brazil trade relationship, according to the State Department
• US senior official said agreements with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala open markets to US agricultural and industrial products, expects full agreements with most of these countries to be finalised within the next two weeks, in which the four countries agreed not to impose digital service taxes. Furthermore, the tariff rates will remain for these countries, but framework agreements will provide relief in certain areas, including bananas.
• US senior official said talks with Switzerland on Thursday were very positive, and if the deal is accepted by US President Trump, we would see a reduction of tariffs on Swiss imports. The official also commented that they have made a lot of advances with Taiwan.
• South Korea announced the factsheet with the US was finalised and President Lee said that US President Trump made a rational decision for the factsheet, while Lee added they agreed that investment in the US will be limited to commercially viable projects and that South Korea and the US will build a new partnership for shipbuilding, AI and the nuclear industry. Lee stated that the sides agreed on South Korea building a nuclear-powered submarine, and South Korea will strengthen ties with companies like NVIDIA.
• South Korean Presidential Adviser said the US will give South Korea chip tariff terms that are no less favourable than Taiwan’s, while it was agreed with the US that forex market stability needs to be ensured and that the amount and timing of fund supply to the US can be adjusted if needed for forex stability.
• White House said the US and South Korea deal includes USD 150bln of Korean investment in the shipbuilding sector approved by the US and USD 200bln of additional Korean investment committed pursuant to an MOU on strategic investments, while the US has given approval for South Korea to build nuclear-powered attack submarines. US said it will reduce its Section 232 sectoral tariffs on automobiles, auto parts, timber, lumber and wood derivatives of South Korea to 15%, and for any Section 232 tariffs imposed on pharmaceuticals, the US intends to apply a tariff rate no greater than 15% to originating goods of South Korea. Furthermore, South Korea is committed to spending USD 25bln on US military equipment purchases by 2030 and shared its plan to provide comprehensive support for US Forces Korea amounting to USD 33bln in accordance with South Korean legal requirements, while the US agreed that South Korea will pay USD 20bln annual phased instalments as part of the trade deal.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were pressured following the sell-off stateside, where tech was hit on valuation and China AI race concerns, while sentiment was also not helped by recent hawkish-leaning Fed rhetoric and mixed Chinese activity data. ASX 200 was dragged lower by weakness in tech and with nearly all sectors in the red aside from energy.     Nikkei 225 dipped beneath the 51,000 level and was among the worst performers amid earnings results and tech woes. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with participants digested the recent data releases, including mixed activity data in which Industrial Production disappointed and Retail Sales marginally topped estimates, but both showed a slowdown from the previous, while Chinese House Prices continued to contract. Nonetheless, the downside in the mainland was somewhat cushioned with China pledging to expand domestic demand and stabilise trade.

Top Asian News

• China stats bureau spokesperson said the economy was generally stable in October, but pressure to adjust the domestic economic structure remains high and stabilisation faces some challenges, while China is to improve the effectiveness of macro policies and to pursue higher-quality economic growth. China will also expand domestic demand on all fronts and will further spur private investment vitality. Furthermore, the spokesperson said China’s investment space and potential remain huge and that China will stabilise trade and help trade firms that have been heavily hit.
• South Korean Finance Minister said they are to prepare measures to stabilise the FX market with the pension fund, while he is concerned about increasing uncertainty in the FX market and noted it is necessary to address imbalances in FX supply and demand.
• Chinese Defence Ministry says the Japanese side "will only suffer a crushing defeat" should it dare to take a risk.
• Hong Kong revises its 2025 GDP forecast to 3.2% (prev. 2-3%).
• Japan's automobile union (JAW) says there are no plans to scale back the wage demand for next year, despite a hit from US tariffs. Wage hikes are key to attaining a demand driven economy.

European Equities – Opened broadly lower, with all major indices in the red as sentiment soured following weakness in APAC trade, where tech underperformed on valuation and China AI concerns. Recent hawkish Fed rhetoric and mixed Chinese data also weighed. UK headlines dominated the morning, with reports that PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves will scrap plans to raise income tax, further pressuring the FTSE 100 (-1.2%). EZ GDP and employment data were largely shrugged off, while attention now turns to ECB’s Buch, Elderson, and Lane. European sectors - Opened mostly lower, with only Energy (+1.0%) and Consumer Products & Services (+0.7%) in positive territory. The latter was lifted by Richemont (+8.0%) after stronger-than-expected H1 revenue and profit, while Energy gained on elevated crude prices following a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Novorossiysk oil depot and upbeat results from Siemens Energy (+9.9%), which raised 2026 guidance. Laggards include Technology (-2.7%), Banks (-2.0%), and Basic Resources (-2.0%). Tech mirrored US weakness amid renewed US–China AI race concerns, while softer Chinese industrial output weighed on resources. Banks underperformed on UK political turbulence, with HSBC (-2.8%), Lloyds (-3.4%), and Barclays (-2.8%) all lower.

Top European News

• UK PM Starmer and Chancellor Reeves reportedly ditched budget plans to increase income tax rates, according to FT. Since, improved UK forecasts reportedly led Chancellor Reeves to drop the Income Tax hike, via Bloomberg citing sources.
• ITV's Peston posts the UK Chancellor "is NOT going to take greater risks with the public finances, which is what investors quite understandably fear is happening". Peston, citing sources, writes that the Chancellor will increase the headroom from the GBP 9bln at the last budget to GBP 15bln or more; "that will happen". Expects Reeves and/or PM Starmer to make it clear today that they will not weaken their commitment to the fiscal rules and increasing headroom. Changes are due to the Treasury receiving improved data on current/expected future wage growth, which has increased tax revenue forecasts; reducing the need to increase tax rates re. Income Tax. New "tax masterplan": extend the Income Tax threshold increase by another two years; look at reducing the threshold where 40p and 45p tax bands kick in.
• German Budget Committee approved the 2026 budget, which clears the path to parliamentary approval, while the budget has total spending of EUR 524.5bln and includes investments of EUR 58.3bln and borrowing of EUR 97.9bln.
• German 2026 net new borrowing to rise to EUR 98bln (vs. 89.8bln in the draft), via Bloomberg citing a document.
• ECB's Elderson says he favours easier rules and fewer requirements for small banks.

FX

• USD - DXY is little changed after a subdued overnight session, following yesterday’s weakness when USD-denominated assets came under pressure amid a broader risk-off tone. With the government now reopened, focus shifts to the release of delayed economic data, though no official schedule has been confirmed — one could, however, be announced as early as today. In early European trade, DXY continues to hold within a narrow 99.109–99.336 range, well within Thursday's 98.991-99.591 range.
• EUR - EUR/USD is trading slightly softer in early European hours after holding onto the prior day’s gains during APAC trade, remaining above the 1.1600 handle amid ongoing dollar pressure. Newsflow for the Eurozone is light, with the pair contained within a 1.1618–1.1648 intraday range and well within yesterday’s 1.1579–1.1656 parameters. The 50DMA and 100DMA sit just above at 1.1660 and 1.1662, respectively.
• GBP - GBP/USD is in focus this session following reports that Chancellor Reeves has scrapped plans for an income tax rate hike, a move seen as increasing fiscal risks ahead of the November 26th budget. Gilts slipped at the open, with the pound underperforming into European trade. Price action later reversed modestly after Bloomberg sources suggested that improved UK forecasts had prompted Reeves to drop the planned tax rise (see Fixed Income section for details). GBP/USD spiked from 1.3121 to 1.3200 on the Bloomberg headlines before easing back toward 1.3150, with trade contained within a 1.3109–1.3200 intraday range and inside yesterday’s broader 1.3100–1.3215 parameters.
• JPY - USD/JPY is struggling for clear direction after recent choppy trade and amid a lack of fresh domestic catalysts, while Japanese press highlights growing scepticism among market participants over the government’s ability to support the yen through direct intervention. The JPY is showing limited reaction to the broader risk-averse tone, with sentiment further dampened by sharp remarks from China’s Defence Ministry, which warned that Japan “will only suffer a crushing defeat” should it “dare to take a risk.” The comments followed Japanese PM Takaichi’s statement that a conflict over Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Tokyo. USD/JPY trades within a 154.32–154.74 intraday range, contained inside yesterday’s 154.13–155.02 parameters.
• Antipodeans - The Antipodeans are mixed with NZD leading gains despite limited fresh catalysts, after the RBNZ confirmed it will proceed with easing mortgage loan-to-value ratio restrictions as previously announced last month. AUD/USD briefly moved above its 100DMA (0.6540) before pulling back, while NZD/USD recovered strongly from yesterday’s losses. The AUD/NZD cross meanwhile slipped from a 1.1558 high to a 1.1487 low.

Fixed Income

• Gilts - A volatile session, with the benchmark plunging from 93.37 to 92.07 at the lows (down 130 ticks) before rebounding to trade around 92.60, still lower by ~77 ticks. Yields briefly spiked to 4.57% (10yr) and 5.37% (30yr). The initial selloff followed FT reports that Chancellor Reeves plans to scrap the manifesto-breaching income tax rate hike, opting instead for threshold cuts and smaller levies — moves seen as undermining fiscal credibility. The reversal prompted renewed concerns over the government’s fiscal stability and added political pressure on PM Starmer. Gilts later pared losses after Bloomberg reported the U-turn was driven by improved UK growth and wage forecasts, lifting the benchmark nearly 50 ticks. ITV’s Peston added that the new plan includes a two-year extension of threshold freezes and lower entry points for the 40p/45p bands, underpinned by stronger wage-driven revenue projections. Despite partial recovery, markets remain uneasy over the handling of communications and credibility risks. The yield swing trimmed the odds of a December BoE cut to under 75% (from ~85% earlier in the week), particularly as higher wage growth reinforces inflation concerns within the MPC’s divided board.
• USTs - Softer in early Europe, with the benchmark slipping to a 112-19 low before stabilising near 112-22, down around 2+ ticks, as US futures found support amid improved chip-sector sentiment. Newsflow was light, with focus on US government bureaus resuming operations and expected to release updated data schedules—potentially as soon as today—setting up a catch-up-heavy week ahead. Attention remains on the December Fed meeting, where markets are split roughly 50/50 on a rate cut, leaving upcoming delayed data pivotal for near-term policy expectations.
• Bunds - Weaker, down around 23 ticks at 128.69, trading between USTs and Gilts in relative terms. The benchmark fell to a 128.63 low (off 29 ticks at worst) after Germany’s defence ministry unveiled its 2026 Bundeswehr funding plan, followed by the Bundestag fiscal committee’s approval of a total package roughly EUR 4bln above the prior figure. Reports indicate net new borrowing for 2026 at EUR 98bln (vs EUR 89.8bln in the draft), explaining Bunds’ mild underperformance versus Treasuries. The full Bundestag vote is scheduled for November 28th.

Commodities

• Crude Oil - Firmer after prices surged in APAC trade on reports of a Ukrainian strike on a Russian oil depot and Kyiv confirming active air defences amid a large-scale attack. WTI and Brent spiked around USD 2/bbl to peaks of USD 60.65 and USD 64.86, before easing to USD 59.26 and USD 63.56 respectively. Later, the UKMTO reported an incident off UAE’s Khor Fakkan, believed linked to state activity, shortly after Reuters cited sources saying an Iranian force redirected a Talara tanker toward its coast near the Strait of Hormuz, prompting a fresh USD 1/bbl uptick. Separately, Sky News Arabia reported the IDF preparing a limited offensive in Lebanon against Hezbollah.
• Precious Metals - Mixed, with XAU unchanged and XAG +1.0%. Spot gold held in a USD 4159–4211/oz range through APAC and early Europe, consolidating after several Fed officials suggested limited scope for further cuts, while Kashkari said he did not support the latest move. The simultaneous drop in equities and gold on Thursday has raised concern that the metal’s safe-haven appeal is fading, with investors noting that gold’s strong correlation with risk aversion — which helped drive it to record highs in recent months — has weakened lately.
• Base Metals - Softer, with 3M LME Copper -0.3%, extending Thursday’s risk-off tone. The red metal held within a USD 10.86k–10.91k/t range through APAC before dipping to a USD 10.83k/t low amid continued caution in broader markets. It has since bounced modestly from session lows as sentiment stabilises.
• US President Trump administration revoked Biden-era limits on Alaska oil drilling.

Geopolitics: Iran

• Talara crude oil tanker taken towards Iranian coast by revolutionary guards based on initial assessment according to Reuters sources.
• Thereafter, UKMTO notes of incident off the coast of UAE's Khor Fakkan, believed to be state activity; Vessel is transiting towards Iranian territorial waters
• Ukrainian drone attack damages apartment buildings and oil depot in Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk. 
• Ukrainian air defence units were engaged in Kyiv against what the mayor described as a massive Russian attack. 
• US Coast Guard detected and monitored a Russian military vessel operating near US territorial waters approximately 15 nautical miles south of Oahu on October 29th, according to the US Coast Guard.
• US senior military officials on Wednesday presented President Trump with updated options for potential operations in Venezuela, including strikes, according to sources cited by CBS News.
• US Defense Secretary Hegseth announces Operation Southern Spear to remove narco-terrorists from the Western Hemisphere.
• China summoned Japan’s envoy over Japanese PM Takaichi's remarks on Taiwan and said the remarks were extremely dangerous.

US Event Calendar

• 10:05 am: Fed’s Schmid Speaks at Energy Conference
• 2:30 pm: Fed’s Logan Speaks in Fireside Chat
• 3:20 pm: Fed’s Bostic To Participate in Moderated Conversation

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It's certainly been a volatile week in terms of sentiment with relief over the end of the shutdown vying with concerns over AI valuations and whether the Fed will cut rates again after several speakers have struck a more cautious tone this week. The S&P 500 (-1.66%) posted its worst day in over a month with a December cut probability falling sharply from around 59% at Wednesday's close to 49% last night. Standby for a likely deluge of data next week to test this pricing in both directions.   

On those releases, yesterday we heard NEC Director Kevin Hassett say that the September jobs report might get released next week. That release should have come out on October 3, so just a couple of days after the shutdown began, and the data collection for that had already been completed when the shutdown started. Then for the October jobs report (which would have normally been out on November 7), Hasset said on Fox News that “We’re going to get half the employment report. We’ll get the jobs part, but we won’t get the unemployment rate”.

Ahead of those releases, we heard from a few Fed speakers yesterday, who struck a cautious tone on the policy outlook. For instance, San Francisco President Daly said that she had “an open mind” on the decision in December. Cleveland Fed President Hammack said “we’ve got this persistent high inflation that is sticking around”, and that getting inflation “back to 2% is critical for our credibility, and that’s our objective”. St Louis Fed President Musalem (a voter this year) noted that “We need to proceed and tread with caution, because I think there’s limited room for further easing”. And Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari suggested that he didn’t support the Fed’s last rate cut in October and that he was undecided on December. So regional Fed presidents not sounding like they are rushing into rate cuts, and futures dialled back the likelihood of a December cut to 49% by the close, down from 59% the previous day.

Clearly, it’s this upcoming wave of data that will help determine whether we actually get a December cut, but there was a clear market reaction to that Fedspeak in the meantime. US equities lost ground across the board, with the S&P 500 (-1.66%) slumping after a run of 4 consecutive gains. The decline was driven by the more cyclical sectors, with the NASDAQ (-2.29%) and the Magnificent 7 (-2.69%) posting even larger declines led by Nvidia (-3.58%) and Tesla (-6.64%). Epitomising yesterday’s struggles for momentum stocks, Robinhood Markets (-8.61%) was the worst performer in the S&P 500 after unveiling a cash delivery service. Still, its shares are up +226% year-to-date. Meanwhile, Walt Disney (-7.75%) was the third worst-performer in the S&P after its Q4 revenue missed estimates. While defensive sectors fared less badly, the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-1.18%) also saw its worst day since the US-China trade escalation five weeks ago.

Rising volatility saw the VIX index (+2.49pts) spike back to exactly 20.0 at the close, with many other asset classes also struggling. Bitcoin (-3.08% to $98,756) fell to its lowest level since early May, extending the decline from its early October peak to -21%. Credit spreads widened, with US IG and HY +1bps and +8bps wider respectively. And historical safe havens of gold (-0.57%) and the dollar (-0.34%) weren’t spared either.

This backdrop also weighed on US Treasuries, with yields rising as investors priced in fewer rate cuts. For example, if we look at the December 2026 meeting, investors were pricing in 81bps of cuts by the close, down -1.8bps on the day. So it wasn’t just the next meeting that was being priced in a more hawkish direction. In turn, that pushed yields higher, with the 2yr yield (+2.2bps) moving up to 3.59%, whilst the 10yr yield (+5.0bps) was up to 4.12%. Long-end Treasuries weren’t helped by a softish 30yr auction that saw $25bn of bonds issued +1.0bps above the pre-sale yield, leaving 30yr yields +4.8bps higher on the day. US yields are back down around a basis point across the curve in Asia this morning.
Earlier in Europe, markets followed a very similar direction to the US, with equities and bonds both selling off. In the UK, sentiment wasn’t helped by an underwhelming GDP report, which showed Q3 GDP growth at just +0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected), whilst the major equity indices lost ground across the continent. So the STOXX 600 (-0.61%) fell back after a 3-day run of gains, with the FTSE 100 (-1.05%) and the DAX (-1.39%) leading the declines. And sovereign bond yields moved consistently higher too, with those on 10yr bunds (+4.4bps), OATs (+3.9bps) and BTPs (+4.8bps) all rising.

Here in the UK, sterling is trading -0.39% lower this morning after the FT reported late last night that Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Chancellor Rachel Reeves have ditched plans to increase income tax rates with the budget announcement on November 26. The politics of breaking a manifesto pledge are seemingly forcing their hands if the story is correct. Gilts have outperformed recently on the expectations of significant tax rises in the budget so this could bring some reversal of that.

Asian markets are weak this morning, following on from the US losses with weak monthly China data also a focus. As I check my screens, the KOSPI (-3.51%) is experiencing the most significant losses, followed by the Nikkei (-1.70%), the S&P/ASX 200 (-1.37%), the Hang Seng (-1.36%), the CSI (-0.81%), and the Shanghai Composite (-0.25%). S&P 500 (+0.03%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.01%) have actually stabilised this morning.

Turning our attention back to China, industrial production increased by +4.3% year-on-year in October, which was below expectations and a decrease from a three-month high of +6.5%, as local manufacturers contend with weak domestic demand and trade tensions with the US. This represents the slowest growth in industrial production since August 2024. Simultaneously, retail sales rose by +2.9% year-on-year in October, surpassing market expectations of +2.7% but down from the 3.0% increase observed in the previous month. In a separate report, new home prices fell by -0.45% month-on-month in October, marking the steepest monthly decline in a year, which underscores the persistently weak demand in the beleaguered property sector which may require additional policy support. This follows a -0.41% decrease in September. September and October are typically peak sales periods.

In the commodities market, Brent crude prices surged above $64 per barrel overnight before retracting some gains to close +1.48% higher, settling at $63.94 per barrel all due to supply concerns following a Ukrainian drone strike on an oil depot in the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a key export hub. 

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the second estimate of Q3 GDP in the Euro Area, and the final October CPI reading for France. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Escriva, Vujcic, Elderson and Lane, along with the Fed’s Schmid, Logan and Bostic.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 08:30

Judge Orders DHS To Release Hundreds Of ICE Detainees In Chicago

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge ruled Nov. 13 that hundreds of illegal immigrants held by ICE in Illinois may be released on bond and ordered the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to assess whether they pose any safety risk to the public.

U.S. District Judge Jeffrey Cummings of the Northern District of Illinois issued the ruling in response to a lawsuit filed by the National Immigrant Justice Center (NIJC) and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Illinois on behalf of people arrested during “Operation Midway Blitz,” a federal immigration enforcement operation targeting illegal immigrants.

More than 3,000 illegal immigrants were arrested between June and October, including those arrested in connection with the operation, according to court documents.

Among them, 615 individuals were not subject to mandatory detention and did not have final removal orders, the ruling states. DHS had argued that all of those detained in the operation fell under mandatory detention.

The judge rejected this argument and ordered DHS to release, by Nov. 21, those individuals from the group of 615 who are still in custody and not deemed a “high public safety risk,” on a $1,500 bond and into ICE’s Alternatives to Detention program.

Their deportation proceedings would be put on hold until the next business day following their release, Jeffrey said.

“Plaintiffs assert that many class members are choosing to voluntarily depart to escape the unsafe and unsanitary conditions that they have been subjected to while in ICE operation,” Jeffrey said in his ruling.

The judge also ordered the department to immediately release 13 individuals who were arrested by ICE in violation of the consent decree during the operation.

Jeffrey noted that DHS must also provide the plaintiffs’ counsel with the names and threat levels of all individuals arrested since June, no later than Nov. 19, according to the ruling.

Mark Fleming, associate director of litigation at NIJC, praised the ruling, saying the judge’s decision will ensure detained illegal immigrants have a fair chance at due process.

“Communities throughout the Chicago area have been traumatized by ICE and other federal agents’ chaotic and violent actions in our neighborhoods in recent months, and potentially hundreds of families already have been permanently separated as a result of unlawful arrests and rapid deportations without due process,” Fleming said in a statement.

The Trump administration has said that Operation Midway Blitz targeted the “worst of the worst” illegal immigrants with criminal records, including sexual and gang-related offenses.

In a statement provided to media outlets, DHS spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin condemned the ruling.

“At every turn, activist judges, sanctuary politicians, and violent rioters have actively tried to prevent our law enforcement officers from arresting and removing the worst of the worst,” McLaughlin said. “Now an activist judge is putting the lives of Americans directly at risk by ordering 615 illegal aliens be released into the community.”

Illinois State Police stand guard as people protest in front of the Broadview ICE Detention Facility in Broadview, Ill., on Oct. 11, 2025. NTD

Operation Midway Blitz sparked protests outside an ICE facility in Chicago, where protesters clashed with federal agents and rammed vehicles of federal agents.

President Donald Trump authorized the deployment of National Guard troops to Illinois to protect federal assets.

A federal judge blocked the deployment on Oct. 9, and the administration has filed a request with the Supreme Court, which is weighing whether to pause the judge’s injunction.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 08:25

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For October, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 15.3% YoY, but still down 13.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Nov. 8

• Active inventory climbed 12.8% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 12.8% year-over-year, as the streak of annual gains stretched past two years in length. There were about 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 28th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing due to both new listings hitting the market and listings taking longer to sell in this weak 2025 sales year.

• New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 10.5% year over year

New listings were up 10.5% last week compared with the same period a year ago. New listing growth has ping-ponged in recent weeks as we enter the slowest period of the year for selling homes. Take this double-digit improvement with a grain of salt, as it marks an improvement over an already-low figure from last year. However, if we do continue to see more new listings coming onto the market, it could be due to mortgage rates hovering in the low-6% range and enticing homeowners to make a move.

• The median listing price fell 1.0% year-over-year

The median list price dropped compared to the same week one year ago. Adjusting for home size, price per square foot fell 1.1% year-over-year, dropping for the tenth consecutive week. Price per square foot grew steadily for almost two years, but the weak sales activity has finally caught up and shaken underlying home values despite stable prices.

US Sanctions Strand A Third of Russia’s Crude Exports at Sea

Submitted by Charles Kennedy of OilPrice

Nearly a third of Russia’s current seaborne oil export potential is now stuck in tankers as the U.S. sanctions upend crude flows and Russia’s top buyers, China and India, are still struggling to assess the implications of the sanctions, according to JPMorgan.  

“Russia’s oil exports are entering a new phase of disruption as sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil are set to take effect, prompting its two largest customers — India and China — to sharply reduce their December purchases,” the Wall Street bank said in a note, as carried by Reuters.

According to JPMorgan’s estimates, as many as 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude oil, or nearly a third of its exporting potential, are on tankers at present, amid re-routing and slowed unloading as buyers are hesitant following the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s top oil producers and exporters, Rosneft and Lukoil. 

Due to the sanctions, the discount of Russia’s flagship crude Urals to Brent has widened in recent days to the highest this year at $20 per barrel. 

As of Monday, Urals was priced $19.40 per barrel below Brent on a free-on-board (FOB) basis at the Russian Baltic Sea port of Primorsk and at the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, widening from $13-$14 per barrel discount at the beginning of November, an industry source told Russian daily Kommersant earlier this week, citing data by Argus.  

All but two Indian refiners have skipped placing orders for Russian crude for December after the U.S. sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, sources with knowledge of the purchases told Bloomberg earlier this week.  

In China, major state-owned refiners have reportedly suspended purchases of Russian crude oil, but the independent refiners in the Shandong province, the so-called teapots, are unlikely to halt imports of the cheap crude that has become a staple for their refineries. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 08:05

US Monitoring Russian Ship Operating In International Waters Near Hawaii

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The United States Coast Guard is tracking a Russian military ship that was detected in international waters near Oahu, Hawaii, at the end of October, the agency announced in a statement on Thursday.

The military branch said that, on Oct. 29, it detected the Russian vessel approximately 15 miles south of Oahu.

The Coast Guard said an HC-130 Hercules aircraft from Air Station Barbers Point and the Coast Guard Cutter William Hart “responded to the Russian Federation Navy Auxiliary General Intelligence ship Kareliya.”

“Acting in accordance with international law, Coast Guard personnel are monitoring the Russian vessel’s activities near U.S. territorial waters to provide maritime security for U.S. vessels operating in the area and to support U.S. homeland defense efforts,” the Coast Guard said.

“The U.S. Coast Guard routinely monitors maritime activity around the Hawaiian Islands and throughout the Pacific to ensure the safety and security of U.S. waters,” Capt. Matthew Chong, chief of response for Coast Guard Oceania District, said in the statement. “Working in concert with partners and allies, our crews monitor and respond to foreign military vessel activity near our territorial waters to protect our maritime borders and defend our sovereign interests.”

In the statement, the Coast Guard noted that international law permits foreign military vessels to “transit and operate outside other nations’ territorial seas, which extend up to 12 nautical miles from shore.”

The disclosure comes as tensions between the United States and Russia have grown in recent weeks as President Donald Trump has soured on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump has sought an end to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, though progress on that front has been slow—a situation Trump has attributed to Putin’s intransigence on moving forward with a deal.

It also comes amid signs of an escalating arms race between the United States and its adversaries.

The Coast Guard’s first detection of the vessel on Oct. 29 came just two days after Russia announced that it had tested a nuclear-powered missile, the Burevestnik cruise missile, which Moscow has claimed possesses unlimited range and the ability to evade existing missile defenses.

Russia’s nuclear test was followed the next day by a successful cruise missile test by North Korea, conducted by the hermit communist state just hours before Trump, then on a circuit of east Asia, was due to set out for a summit in South Korea.

Following these two incidents, Trump on Oct. 29 directed the Pentagon to begin nuclear weapons testing again.

Since then, Energy Secretary Chris Wright has clarified that these tests will involve particular components of nuclear weapons, but will not involve nuclear detonations.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 07:20

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• The Dow Is Close to 50,000. How the Heck Did We Get Here So Fast? The Dow Jones Industrial Average took 103 years to reach 10,000, in 1999, after starting at 40.94 in 1896. Milestones at 20,000, 30,000, and 40,000 occurred in rapid succession starting in 2017, with decreasing fanfare. The Dow is now approaching 50,000, with annualized gains of 6.4% from 10,000 in 1999. (Barron’s)

• Google is trying to take down a group sending you all those spammy texts: A new lawsuit details what allegedly happens after you click that fake USPS link. (The Verge) see also The hidden, horrifying world behind all those recruitment scam texts: The people likely to be sending them are victims, too. (Vox)

• A Winning Investment Strategy Sitting Right Under Your Nose (If You Can Hold It): It works to buy stocks after they’ve gotten wrecked. (Morningstar)

• Trump Is Falling Into the Same “Affordability” Trap That Ensnared Biden: Republicans learned nothing from how badly Dems bungled inflation. Turns out it’s easy to win while running as an outsider promising “affordability.” It’s much harder to actually do anything about it. (The Bulwark)

• Why Gen Z Hates Work: When you spend hours each day watching influencers get rich without much effort, you forget what it takes to succeed in this world. (The Free Press)

• How two tiny banks are helping Trump’s sons build a crypto empire: Dominari Holdings and Yorkville Advisors are benefiting from close connections with Eric and Donald Trump Jr. (Financial Times)

• When Will We Make God? The key driver of the AI Bubble. Hyperscalers believe they might build God within the next few years. That’s one of the main reasons they’re spending billions on AI, soon trillions. They think it will take us just a handful of years to get to AGI—Artificial General Intelligence, the moment when an AI can do nearly all virtual human tasks better than nearly any human. They think it’s a straight shot from there to superintelligence—an AI that is so much more intelligent than humans that we can’t even fathom how it thinks. A God. (Uncharted Territories)

• People don’t want to visit the U.S. Can this new ad convince them otherwise? A new ad campaign aims to sell an idealized America to increasingly skeptical travelers. (Fast Company) 

• How do you move a village? Residents of France’s last outpost in North America try to outrun the sea As rising tides eat away at the Saint-Pierre and Miquelon archipelago off Canada, plans to move the historic village to higher ground have divided residents. (The Guardian)

• Ben Stiller Was Hollywood’s Funny Guy. But He’s Always Been Serious. He’s best known as a comedy star who defined the Gen X sensibility. But what he really wants is to work behind the camera. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bankim “Binky” Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist and Head of Asset Allocation at Deutsche Bank Securities, a role he has held since 2004.

 

Bonds are not as positively correlated to equities as they were in 2022, they are no longer negatively correlated either.

Source: Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Oil Prices Soar After Ukraine Strike On Major Russian Export Hub

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Oil prices jumped in early Asian trade on Friday morning as markets responded to renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure.

A Ukrainian drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, one of the country’s most significant oil export hubs, triggered renewed fears of supply disruptions.

Ukraine has launched a massive attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.

Long-range missile and drones have hit targets in several locations, including the oil terminal.

Huge explosions kept residents up all night pic.twitter.com/fJssz64Ugo

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) November 14, 2025

At the time of writing, WTI had risen 2.71% to $60.30...

The attacks damaged a ship, nearby apartment buildings, and an oil depot, injuring three crew members aboard the vessel, Russian regional authorities confirmed.

Ukrainian forces have increasingly targeted Russian oil-refining, storage, and export infrastructure using drones and missiles.

The campaign has gained intensity in recent months, with the Center for European Policy Analysis noting a shift in strategy “from smaller-scale strikes on storage tanks to targeting hard-to-replace refinery equipment, like cracking units, much of it western-made and subject to sanctions.”

"The intensity of these attacks has increased, it's much more often. Eventually they could hit something that causes lasting disruption," said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS.

If Ukraine continues to press its deep-strike campaign and Russia faces rolling or compounding infrastructure losses, the supply risk to global oil markets could rise meaningfully.

Russian oil supply is being further suppressed by renewed U.S. sanctions, most notably new restrictions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, effective Nov. 21, prohibiting transactions with the companies as Washington increases pressure on Moscow.

The broader oil market outlook, however, remains bearish, with U.S. crude inventories rising and multiple warnings of a severe glut in 2026.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 06:30

Key Ocean Current Faltering, Raising Risk Of "Ice Age"-Like Cooling

And just like that we're free from climate hysteria and worried about a new "ice age"...Funny how that works, isn't it? 

A new study in Communications Earth & Environment warns that a key Atlantic current could near collapse within decades, potentially triggering an “ice age” scenario and major sea-level rise, according to the NY Post.

The research, from the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oceanology and UC San Diego, focuses on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the “conveyor belt of the ocean” that includes the Gulf Stream and helps keep Europe, the U.K., and the U.S. East Coast relatively mild.

The Post writes that the study argues that warming temperatures are melting the Greenland ice sheet, sending freshwater into the North Atlantic and slowing the AMOC. Researchers say they’ve detected a related “distinctive temperature fingerprint” several thousand feet below the surface.

“Here we identify a distinctive temperature fingerprint in the equatorial Atlantic that signals the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation change,” they wrote, adding that its “robust physical mechanism and reliable detection make [this fingerprint] a valuable metric for AMOC monitoring in a warming climate.”

Using the MITgcm climate model and ocean data back to 1960, the team concludes the AMOC has been weakening since the late 20th century and could collapse before 2100. If that happened, Europe could face drastic cooling — possibly nearly 60 degrees — and drier conditions. As Jonathan Bamber told the Daily Mail, “Winters would be more typical of Arctic Canada and precipitation would decrease, also.”

Reuters notes the AMOC last collapsed before the Ice Age ended roughly 12,000 years ago.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 05:45

UAE-Based DP World Takes Control Of Syria's Tartus Port In $800M Deal

Via Middle East Eye

Syria has formally handed over operations of Tartus port, the second largest port in the country, to the UAE-based logistics company DP World. 

DP World officially commenced operations on Wednesday, months after signing a 30-year concession agreement worth $800m with Syria’s General Authority for Land and Sea Ports. The deal has been described as one of the largest global investments in Syria’s logistics sector in years, and aims to turn the port into an efficient trading hub. 

Tartus port, via Maxar Technologies/AFP

"We are committed to applying DP World’s global expertise to build a modern and digitally enabled port that will grow trade, create opportunities and firmly position Tartus as a key trade hub in the Eastern Mediterranean," said Fahad al-Banna, the newly appointed chief executive of DP World Tartus. 

DP World said in a statement that it would upgrade the port’s infrastructure, expand its handling and storage capacity and invest in bulk handling systems. 

In June, Syria’s government annulled a 2019 agreement between Bashar al-Assad’s administration and the Russian company Stroytransgaz to manage Tartus. 

Damascus said the deal was terminated due to the Russian company breaching its contract, including by failing to invest a promised $500m in modernizing that port’s infrastructure. 

The government, led by President Ahmed al-Sharaa, also said in a statement at the time that the previous deal was "unfair to Syrian sovereignty", with Syria receiving 35 percent of port revenues while Stroytransgaz got 65 percent. 

Since the fall of the Assad dynasty’s decades-long rule in December, the new administration has been aiming to re-establish economic ties with western and regional powers. 

Along with Tartus, a 30-year deal was also signed with French shipping company CMA CGM to operate Latakia port, the largest port city in the country.  

In June, US President Donald Trump issued an executive order lifting sanctions on Syria, to support the country’s reconstruction following over a decade of war. The European Union and the UK also eased sanctions. Earlier this week, Sharaa became the first Syrian president to visit the White House since the country’s independence in 1946. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 05:00

EU Development Bank Boosts Funding For Ukraine Gas Supply

Submitted by Michael Kern of OilPrice.com,

The European Union’s development bank has decided to provide additional funds to Ukraine’s state energy firm Naftogaz to secure natural gas supply amid continued Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. 

The European Investment Bank (EIB), the bank of the European Union, will extend a $147-million (127 million euros) grant to Naftogaz, according to an EIB statement carried by Reuters. 

Last month, the EIB extended a loan of $348 million (300 million euros) to Naftogaz in an urgent measure to strengthen energy resilience and replenish Ukraine’s long-term gas reserves ahead of winter. 

The loan “will secure energy supply for households and businesses, following damage to Ukrainian infrastructure caused by Russia’s ongoing attacks,” the EIB said in October. 

Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure intensified as temperatures began to drop in the autumn. Ukraine has discussed with G7 countries additional natural gas imports as it seeks to boost imports by 30% to offset the damage from Russian strikes on its gas infrastructure. 

Naftogaz said in early October that Russia launched another massive attack on Ukraine’s gas infrastructure. The targets were civilian facilities that supply Ukrainians with gas during the heating season.  

“As a result of this attack, a significant portion of our facilities has been damaged. Some of the destruction is critical,” Naftogaz CEO Sergii Koretskyi said.

In the past week, Naftogaz signed an agreement with Polish energy firm Orlen for the supply of U.S. LNG, and agreed with Greek company ATLANTIC-SEE to jointly work to ensure U.S. LNG supply to Europe and Ukraine through Greek LNG terminals and the Vertical Corridor. 

Separately, Ukraine’s imports of electricity from the European Union surged to a 2025 high in October as Russia intensified attacks on the power grid to wreak additional havoc as temperatures drop. 

The Russia-Ukraine war on strategic energy assets has escalated in recent weeks, with Russia targeting gas facilities and power infrastructure in Ukraine, and Ukraine increasing drone strikes on Russian refineries and key export hubs.  

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 03:30

German Chancellor Tells Zelensky Young Men Should Return & Defend Their Homeland

At a moment the Zelensky government is suffering embarrassment and under a global spotlight for a wide-ranging corruption case related to the country's struggling state energy sector, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has issued some unusually strong words directed at Ukrainian leadership.

In televised remarks Thursday he revealed that he personally urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to get serious about curbing the flow of young Ukrainian men to Germany as they need to serve in the defense of their own homeland. Merz disclosed some of the contents of his latest call.

"In a lengthy telephone conversation today, I asked the Ukrainian president to ensure that young men in particular from Ukraine do not come to Germany in large numbers - in increasing numbers - but that they serve their country," Merz said "They are needed there."

German Chancellor Merz:

In a call today, I asked the Ukrainian President to ensure that young Ukrainian men do not return to Germany in growing numbers, but serve in their own country where they are needed. pic.twitter.com/4fz8bLic8J

— Clash Report (@clashreport) November 13, 2025

Within Merz's conservative ranks there's been growing alarm over the large numbers of fighting-age men fleeing Ukraine and into Western Europe.

Zelensky policies have enabled this, as his administration relaxed exit rules related to martial law, just months ago for the first time of the war letting Ukrainian men aged 18 to 22 leave the country. Ukrainian citizens can't even be drafted until they are 25, under current law.

American officials have also criticized Ukraine's policy, given in most militaries in the world, eighteen makes one eligible to be recruited.

Further, according to Politico, "Members of Merz’s ruling coalition fear that the growing presence of young Ukrainian men in Germany will be turned into a political flash point by members of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, who criticize the government’s ongoing support for Kyiv."

Last month The Telegraph reported "Almost 100,000 fighting-age Ukrainian men have left the country in the past two months after Volodymyr Zelensky eased departure rules, new figures show." 

Those figures were primarily based on the Polish border guard, as the neighboring EU country shares a long border with Ukraine, and has been from the start of the war absorbing refugees and trying to maintain strict counts and records. And surely many of these young men made it to Germany and other Western European countries.

While men aged 25 to 60 can be conscripted into the military and sent to the front lines, men 24 and under still cannot. Again, this has been hugely controversial as even US members of Congress have complained that Washington is sinking billions into the war effort against Russia, and Kiev won't even tap into its most eligible fighting-age demographic. And so the expected drain of young men from the country is happening after border restrictions were loosened by Kiev last summer.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 02:45

The Next Phase Of Germany's Nord Stream Investigation Might Further Worsen Ties With Poland

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Italy’s potential extradition of a Ukrainian suspect to Germany could lead to a highly publicized (and predictably politicized) trial that implicates Poland in this unprecedented attack on a fellow NATO ally.

The Wall Street Journal recently published a detailed piece about “The Nord Stream Investigation That’s Splintering Europe Over Ukraine”.

The gist is that Germany’s investigation into the Ukrainian trace, which is likely a preplanned red herring as argued here in early 2023, has already worsened ties with Poland after one of its judges refused to extradite a Ukrainian suspect.

It could soon worsen ties with Ukraine too if Italy soon extradites another one and a highly publicized (and predictably politicized) trial follows.

Germany’s Nord Stream investigation has placed it in a dilemma since it needs to pin the blame on someone for one of the largest sabotage/terrorist attacks in decades, yet it doesn’t dare look into the American trace that Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh drew attention to in early 2023. Accusing it of orchestrating this attack would risk punitive tariffs from Trump and could convince him to authorize the gradual transfer of some EUCOM infrastructure from Germany to neighboring rival Poland.

On that topic, the Ukrainian trace also conveniently implicates Poland, thus inflicting damage to its reputation.

The idea that this NATO ally played even just a passive role facilitating a third country’s attack against a “fellow” member, let alone might be trying to cover the aforesaid up after declining to extradite one of the suspects, could have real-world consequences.

Germany might rally other allies against supporting Poland in a hypothetical crisis with Russia, for example, and could even blame Poland for it.

Not only that, but Poland’s proposal for Germany to subsidize its arms industry as a form of World War II reparations could be opposed on the pretext that the long-term damage that Poland helped Ukraine inflict to Germany equals whatever Germany might have subsidized, therefore negating the request. Worsened bilateral relations could then give a boost to the conservative opposition, which dislikes Germany almost as much as it dislikes Russia, ahead of fall 2027’s next parliamentary elections.

Replacing the ruling liberal-globalist coalition, which could be achieved by allying with the populist-nationalist opposition upon complying with their demand that senior party leaders resign, would strengthen the challenge that Poland poses to German influence in the region. That’s because the Right would control the presidency and parliament, thus breaking the deadlock that’s been in place since the current coalition obtained power in December 2023 and enabling more effective policy implementation.

This outcome could still occur even without a highly publicized German trial implicating Poland in the Nord Stream attack, but it’ll make it much more likely if that happens. In such a scenario, already fractious EU and NATO unity might further weaken, with this possibly hamstringing cooperation against Russia through the “military Schengen” and other emerging multilateral frameworks. A security dilemma could also develop between them amidst their mutual adversarial perceptions and arms buildups.

Observers should remember that this is possible solely due to Germany refusing to investigate the American trace in the Nord Stream attack, instead opting to look into the Ukrainian one that also involves Poland. The public demands that someone be blamed for the spike in costs brought about by Germany being cut off from cheap and reliable Russian gas. The elite therefore decided to pin the blame on them, but it’s unclear whether they thought through the consequences touched upon in this analysis.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/14/2025 - 02:00