Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for August. The consensus is for 1.375 million SAAR, down from 1.428 million SAAR.

• At 2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at this meeting.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

The post Best Way to Give Government a Patent Stake Is to Make Them Shorter and Weaker appeared first on CEPR.

The post New York Times Mocks Canada for Tax Cut: Tariffs are Taxes #42,371 appeared first on CEPR.

Goldman Spots "Strong Demand" For iPhone 17 In New Lead Time Data 

Apple hosted its "Awe Dropping" product launch event one week ago, unveiling the iPhone 17 lineup alongside updates for the Apple Watch and AirPods. Aside from more megapixels and incremental improvements to processing, display, and other features, the iPhone 16 remains sufficient and does not warrant an immediate upgrade. Still, the decision to upgrade weighs heavily on many consumers trapped in Tim Cook's Apple ecosystem hole. To gauge initial demand signals, we turn to new lead-time data from Goldman Sachs. 

A team of Goldman analysts, led by Michael Ng, provided clients with new lead-time data on iPhone 17 models just days after the product launch, highlighting what they describe as "strong iPhone 17 demand signals from pre-order trends."

Across the board, Ng's team found that pre-order lead times for iPhone 17 models are longer than the iPhone 16 launch in all regions (USA, Mainland China, Japan, UK, India, and Hong Kong), supporting their view of "outlook for +8% iPhone revenue growth in F4Q25, which should also benefit from some channel fill as AAPL ended F3Q25 at the low end of its channel inventory target range." 

Key Findings:

• Lead times are extended for all iPhone 17 models globally versus iPhone 16.

• Pro and Pro Max models show the longest wait times, maintaining their premium demand profile.

• Mainland China has the longest delays (up to 5 weeks), though the iPhone Air launch is delayed there due to eSIM regulatory hurdles.

In-depth findings that support robust demand for the latest iteration of the iPhone:

• iPhone 17 lead times are up across all models on Day 1 pre-orders on Apple.com. By model, the global lead times were 8 days longer for the base iPhone 17 model relative to the iPhone 16 base, 3 days longer for the iPhone Air relative to the iPhone 16 Plus, 3 days longer for the iPhone 17 Pro v. iPhone 16 Pro, and 8 days longer for the iPhone 17 Pro Max v. the iPhone 16 Pro Max. Lead times also remain elevated on day 4 of pre-orders (Monday, September 15). For our global analysis across regions, we assume the following regional weights on regions where we tracked lead times: USA (51%), Mainland China (27%), Japan (9%), UK (6%), India (6%), and Hong Kong (1%). These assumptions are consistent with the proportional distribution of Gartner's 2024 estimates of iPhone shipments by region.

• Lead times are also up across most regions. By region, average lead times in the USA were 3 days longer across all models for Day 1 pre-orders on Apple.com. Specifically, lead times for iPhone Air were 4 days (v. no lead time for the iPhone 16 Plus) and 24 days for the iPhone 17 Pro Max (v. 17 days for the iPhone 16 Pro Max); lead times for the iPhone 17 Base and Pro in the USA remained at 0 days. Day 1 lead times were also up in Mainland China (+17 days to 27 days), the UK (+8 days to 18 days), India (+3 days to 13 days), and Hong Kong (+1 day to 13 days). In Japan, lead times moderated relative to the iPhone 16 with 23 day lead times on average (v. 29 days prior). For our analysis across iPhone model types, we assume the following unit mix: iPhone (23%), iPhone Plus/Air (8%), iPhone Pro (33%), and iPhone Pro Max (36%). The assumptions are in-line with Canalys' reported mix of iPhone 16 units by model life-to-date as of 4Q24.

• Press reports that planned production for Base, Pro, and Pro Max models is up +25% yoy, iPhone Air up 3x as compared to the iPhone 16 Plus, per technology analyst Ming Chi Kuo. Longer lead times against a backdrop of longer lead times suggests stronger pre-order demand across these models.

• iPhone Air launch delayed in China over eSIM regulation. There is minimal eSIM carrier support in China today, though Apple noted publicly that is it working with regulators to bring iPhone Air to China as soon as possible. Beyond the iPhone Air, eSIM-only iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max are available in Bahrain, Canada, Guam, Japan, Kuwait, Mexico, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the USA, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. eSIM-only models have larger batteries than those with a physical eSIM card slot.

Lead times by model:

• iPhone 17 (starting at $799 with 256 GB storage): Available ~3 weeks after September 19th launch in the US across all colors expect Mist Blue which is available in ~2 weeks. Lead times in India were ~1 week, UK was ~2 weeks, Hong Kong was ~3 weeks, Japan was ~4 weeks, and Mainland China was ~5 weeks.

• iPhone Air (starting at $999 with 256 GB storage): Available ~1 week after September 19th launch in the US, UK, and India, with ~2 week lead times in Japan. The launch of the iPhone Air is delayed in Mainland China due to eSIM regulation.

• iPhone 17 Pro (starting at $1,099 with 256 GB storage): ~2 week lead times in the US and India, ~3 weeks in UK and Japan, and ~5 weeks in Mainland China. By color, Cosmic Orange & Silver have the longest lead times (~3 weeks), followed by Deep Blue (~2 weeks).

• iPhone 17 Pro Max (starting at $1,199 with 256 GB storage): ~4 week lead times across all regions and colors except Hong Kong & India, where lead times are closer to ~3 weeks. By color, Cosmic Orange & Silver have the longest lead times (~4 weeks), followed by Deep Blue (~3 weeks).

Chart of The Day 

The analysts maintain a "Buy" rating on Apple with a 12-month price target of $266.

$250 Resistance. 

Moar buybacks Mr. Cook? 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 14:05

Trump Supports Designating Antifa A Terrorist Organization

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump on Monday said that he would support designating the antifa movement a terrorist organization in the wake of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk’s assassination last week.

In response to a question in a White House news conference, Trump was asked about the assassination and whether he would designate antifa as a domestic terrorist organization.

“It’s something I would do, yeah, if I have support from the people back here,” Trump said, referring to administration officials standing behind him, including Attorney General Pam Bondi.

“I would do that 100 percent,” he said, adding that “antifa is terrible.”

“There are some other groups” who are “pretty radical groups, and they got away with murder,”  Trump said.

He did not provide any specific details about those organizations.

The president said he would also bring RICO, or Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Act, charges against “some of the people you have been reading about that have been putting up millions and millions of dollars for agitation.”

Antifa supporters generally hold extreme political views, including communist or anarchist beliefs. Supporters, who are usually organized through decentralized cells, often favor “direct action” rather than electoral politics or policy reform.

A commonly used tactic involves participants wearing black clothing and masks during protests to shield their identifying features. In many cases, antifa participants engage in violence during demonstrations, such as during the unrest that occurred throughout the summer of 2020 in the wake of George Floyd’s death.

The suspect in Kirk’s assassination, Tyler Robinson, is believed to have held leftist viewpoints, say FBI Director Kash Patel and Utah Gov. Spencer Cox. He also engraved anti-fascist messages on bullets that were recovered by officials.

Officials have not said whether Robinson was in communication or was associated with any particular antifa groups. The FBI is currently scrutinizing online accounts that are alleged to have shown awareness of Kirk’s assassination before the incident unfolded, a source familiar with the FBI’s investigation confirmed to The Epoch Times on Monday.

Screenshots highlighted by the Washington Free Beacon show several X accounts mentioning the date of Kirk’s assassination, which occurred Sept. 10, and ominous messages. The Epoch Times has not independently examined the screenshots and accounts that were singled out by the Free Beacon.

FBI Deputy Director Dan Bongino told Fox News that the bureau is currently investigating whether Robinson had other accomplices. So far, no other individuals have been charged in the case.

Earlier Monday, both White House adviser Stephen Miller and Vice President JD Vance said that the administration is moving to investigate networks that organized riots, street violence, and other activities in the United States. At one point, Miller used the term “domestic terror movement” to describe such actors.

It’s not clear if Robinson has an attorney. His court arraignment date has been set for Tuesday.

Kirk was shot and killed on Sept. 10 while he was holding a debate forum at Utah Valley University with his Turning Point USA organization. The suspect was captured around 33 hours later, the FBI has said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 13:45

Record Direct Demand For Stellar, Stopping-Through 20Y Auction

After 3 stellar coupon auctions last week, with 10Y yields trading effectively at the lowest level since last October (excluding the Liberation Day basis trade freak out) , and with the Fed set to cut by at least 25bps, there was little anxiety ahead of today's 20Y coupon auction. And with good reason: moments ago the day's coupon auction, a reopening of the 19-Year, 11-Month cusip UN6, went without a glitch in what was a very solid auction. 

The auction priced at a high yield of 4.613%, down from 4.876% last month and the lowest since October 24. It also stopped through the When Issued 4.615% by 0.2bps, the 3rd consecutive through auction in a row.

The bid to cover was 2.74 up from 2.54 in July, the second highest since March and above the 2.65 six-auction average. 

The internals were a bit weaker, with Indirects taking down 64.6%, up from 60.6% last month (which was the lowest since Feb 24), and with Directs taking down 27.9%, the highest on record...

... Dealers were left holdings just 7.6%.

Overall, this was a very solid auction, whose highlight this month was the record Direct award, any in any event the demand was clearly there and the yield on the 10Y is now back down to session lows with just 24 hours left until tomorrow's FOMC decision. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 13:27

Mystery Trader Makes Record Bet On 50bps Rate Cut Tomorrow

With a 25bps rate-cut fully priced in tomorrow, a mystery trader made a massive bet yesterday to hedge against the possibility of a much larger 50bps cut - very much against the consensus in the market.

After last week's jobless claims and CPI/PPI malarkey, there has been some rotation in the market relating to The Fed's rate-cut trajectory (with 2025 expectations declining and 2026 expectations increasing)...

The 2025 shift has seen September odds of a 50bps cut tumbled (from almost 20% to only around 4% now) while October's odds of a 25bps cut are also falling...

So, despite that hawkish shift, Bloomberg's Ed Bolingbroke reported an eventful morning session in the US yesterday for flows in the front-end of the curve included the largest ever block trade in fed funds futures.

The trade took place in the October fed funds, for an amount of 84,000 contracts which is equivalent to $3.5 million per basis point in risk.

As Bolingboke notes, the price and timing of the trade was consistent with a buyer, potentially indicating a hedge against a half-point rate cut at Wednesday’s policy meeting, given a quarter-point cut is now fully baked into the swaps market.

The CME confirmed this was the largest ever block trade in Fed Funds Futures...

The largest ever Fed Funds futures block trade was executed this morning (84,000 contracts, equivalent to $3.5m per basis point), underscoring the significant risk transfer enabled by CME Group's deeply liquid markets. pic.twitter.com/eV3EsnUMKe

— CME Group Interest Rates (@Interest_Rates) September 15, 2025

Along with the massive fed funds futures flow, and perhaps reflecting the shift seen in the first chart above, there was also a huge SOFR spread trade via a September 2026/March 2027 steepener.

This position may reflect a wager on more front-loaded and deeper rate cuts vs. current policy pricing.

As we noted earlier, and bearing in mind these new large positions, Goldman believes the main near-term risk to equity markets would be an unwind of Fed cutting expectations, particularly for some of the lower quality pockets of the market that have benefited from a more ‘goldilocks’ backdrop.

*  *  *

Ever had tallow chips with no seed oils? Organic corn, no pesticides, just a healthy snack. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 13:00

Clearinghouses And The Basis Trade

By Russell Clark of the Capital Flows and Asset Markets substack

In a recent post, I wondered if the Trump administration was going to force the Federal Reserve out of the “QE Business” - or in other words ban them from buying assets, and get them to focus solely on interest rate markets.

This could be a huge issue for markets. Whenever asset markets have threatened to unwind, central banks have stepped in as buyers. The UK gilt market is good example, where the Truss budget was a shock, that caused initial margins on gilt trading to rise which caused the market to have no bidders and yields to surge. It required the BOE to restart QE to bail out basis traders.

When looking at basis trades (typically buying physical treasuries and then selling interest rate futures or derivatives) there are two different market to look at. LCH owned by the LSE Group and has dominant market share in interest rates derivatives and European bonds. CME dominates Treasury trading, and JSCC dominates JGB trading. We are mainly concerned with treasuries here, so we will look at date from LCH and CME. Looking at variation and initial margin data, there is a cyclicality to this. Spikes in variation and initial margins SHOULD be correlated.

As of the most recent data point, q2 2025, margins look low at LCH.

CME data is more interesting. Q2 data shows much more of a spike in both variation and initial margins, more inline with the air pocket we saw in Treasuries during the “Liberation Day” tariff sell off.

More surprising was the lack of margin breaches at LCH

Something we also saw at CME.

Having studied clearinghouses for a while, this would match up with market moves. The MOVE Index (a measure of bond volatility) tends to match initial margins, and spikes from low levels to high levels tend to march up with margin breaches. So 2020, and 2022 saw margin breaches, but since 2023, the MOVE index has tended to be moving lower.

Generally speaking, clearinghouses tend to cause trend following to work well. So when things are going well, for example the MOVE Index is going lower, then initial margins will fall, and asset markets will behave. It is only a problem when volatility inflects higher. So generally speaking, IF the Fed gets out of the bond buying business, AND the Trump administration delivers inflationary fiscal policy or we get an oil shock, then we will have a problem. But the data above suggests that will be more likely a 2026 or 2027 problem. The only data point that I found particularly bearish was a huge drop in KCCP - which determines the capital charge for trading with LCH.

This fall in capital charge is very good for basis traders and other users of the clearinghouse, as it allows less capital to be put aside. The fall was driven by a regulatory change, which in essence allows the clearinghouse to net trades. But netting is the key issue with clearinghouses. Netting is the fundamental driver of basis trade, and leverage. LCH reports initial margin numbers on a total and net basis. As I understand it, the net number is purely hypothetical. Is the amount of initial margin LCH calculates would be necessary if all trades could be netted.

Theoretically this should be fine. But analysis suggests that we are ending up with a bifurcated market, with hedge funds all one side, and banks all the other side. As an old report form the BIS noted, all US banks have become a net lender to the repo market.

Putting it all together, conditions are nearly perfect for a clearinghouse blow up - but not yet. A sustained period of the MOVE index trading in the 50 to 60 range should allow sufficient leverage to build for a blowout move. I still think long dated government bond yields go higher. But an air pocket move like we saw in gilts in 2022, or treasuries earlier this year looks unlikely until 2026.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 12:45

Hanged, Drawn, And Quartered

By Michael Every of Rabobank

From a “because markets” perspective, the key story today is President Trump saying he would like the US to shift from quarterly to biannual corporate reporting: "This will save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies… Did you ever hear the statement that, 'China has a 50 to 100 year view on management of a company, whereas we run our companies on a quarterly basis??? Not good!!!" One can hear the wails of those in the ouroboros of 3-monthly higher/lower games. Yet from an economic statecraft perspective, is this wrong?

Agree there and you have to ask why US firms are supposed to fixate on short-term returns to shareholders rather than a long-run vision. The Chinese EVs sweeping all before them --and cementing control of key supply chains-- are losing money hand over fist; does that matter if they can keep it up longer than western markets would allow? Neomercantilism says yes. Accept that, and you quickly turn to what quarterly GDP is and isn’t measuring and is and isn’t “for”.

That is starting to happen, as a quick round-up of geopolitics underlines:

• "America risks making frenemies of old allies", argues the FT: what did Machiavelli say about being feared vs loved?

• ŸThe US struck a second alleged drug boat from Venezuela, as the State Department approved a possible sale of F-16s to Peru.

• The US announced that it will broaden its anti-narcotics strikes to land and named Afghanistan, the Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Burma, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India, Jamaica, Laos, Mexico, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, and Venezuela as countries with drug production inputs, facilities, or key transit channels. Monroe Doctrine, anyone?

• The US struck a second alleged drug boat from Venezuela, as the State Department approved a possible sale of F-16s to Peru.

• ŸIsrael’s invasion of Gaza City has begun for real, with the region in turmoil over that and the recent Israeli strike on Qatar, which sources say Trump was informed of in advance. Negotiations are apparently also taking place behind the scenes to try to avoid a full  invasion.

• Australia’s Papua New Guinea defence treaty will require both to 'act' if either is attacked, though it’s still unsigned, Vanuatu hasn’t signed the same deal, and PM Albanese is now aiming for Fiji as whispers are of Chinese regional counter-lobbying.

• ŸIn Europe, Denmark will bypass more than 20 laws and regulations to allow Ukraine’s Fire Point to build a solid rocket fuel plant near a Danish airbase.  

Geoeconomics makes the same point:

• Poland closing its border with Belarus has frozen €25bn in EU-China rail trade.

• ŸChina threatened “decisive countermeasures” should Europe and the US impose secondary sanction tariffs on it for buying Russian oil.

• Reuters underlines China and Russia are using bilateral barter to avoid the US dollar.  

• Ÿ‘China’s curbs on defence metal germanium create ‘desperate’ supply squeeze’ (FT): prices are at a 14-year high for the crucial input a GDP-and-P/E-focus saw China gain total control of.

• China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws, escalating tensions with the US, though the two have reached a TikTok “consensus’, perhaps setting up a Trump-Xi call, as Treasury Secretary Bessent underlined China is making “aggressive asks.”

• Australia has unveiled plans to boost its exports to China even as it suffered economic coercion on that front in recent years, and as it tries to sign defence treaties with Pacific nations which could risk that happening all over again.

• ŸAn India-EU trade deal has been hit by a basmati rice dispute as Pakistan says the vaunted grains are theirs, leaving Brussels to play for time. It certainly symbolises how the usual “grain-ular” EU approach on free trade doesn’t work in a geopolitical world.

• Indeed, Israeli PM Netanyahu stated his country is economically isolated and will need to become self-reliant for the weapons it needs: he even mentioned “autarky”.

Political news also flows away from a business-as-usual focus on GDP and quarterly earnings:

• Politico argues ‘Why Macron thinks Lecornu can save France from the abyss’

• ŸThe AfD tripled its vote share in a key western state in Germany

• A Tory MP defected to Reform UK as a poll has the party 16 points ahead of Labour and the Conservatives; “Labour MPs talk openly about replacing PM, as third senior ally in two weeks departs after publication of messages”

• ŸThe White House says it will crack down on the political left

• ŸThe Wall Street Journal notes “fascist” has been normalised as an insult by all in US politics

• ŸA US free speech lobby group poll of Harvard students has 32% backing violence to stop political voices they oppose on campus.

In markets, an appeals court ruled Trump can’t fire Governor Cook before the next Fed meeting, so how will Cook vote - unless the Supreme Court quickly steps in? That’s as Trump appointee Miran won confirmation to the Fed, which Bloomberg calls a “Watershed policy moment”. The current trend suggests a lot higher watersheds than that to come.

Meanwhile, Thailand is weighing taxes on physical gold trading as the metal is dragging THB higher as the struggling economy needs a lower exchange rate; and the Bank of England proposes strict limits on stablecoin ownership - that’s one way to avoid the threat of dollar stablecoins, but I doubt the US will stand for it. Does either move say, “because markets” or “expect further changes to the global architecture”?

To summarize all of the above, just looking at the usual numbers in the usual “because markets” ways at times like these risks seeing you hung, drawn, and quartered.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 10:05

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 32, unchanged from 32 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Steady but Future Sales Expectations Hit Six-Month High

Builder sentiment levels remained unchanged in September but lower mortgage rates and expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut the federal funds rate led to higher future sale expectations in the coming months.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in September, unchanged from the August reading, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. While builder sentiment has hovered at a relatively low reading between 32 and 34 since May, builders expressed optimism that a more favorable interest rate climate could bring hesitant buyers off the sidelines in the final quarter of 2025.

“While builders continue to contend with rising construction costs, a recent drop in mortgage interest rates over the past month should help spur housing demand,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C.

“NAHB expects the Fed to cut the federal funds rate at their meeting this week, which will help lower interest rates for builder and developer loans,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Moreover, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average is down 23 basis points over the past four weeks to 6.35%, per Freddie Mac. This is the lowest level since mid-October of last year and a positive sign for future housing demand.”

In a sign that the housing market remains soft, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 39% of builders reported cutting prices in September, up from 37% in August and the highest percentage in the post-Covid period. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in September, the same as it’s been every month since last November. The use of sales incentives was 65% in September, essentially unchanged from 66% in August.
...
The HMI index gauging future sales expectations in September rose two points to 45, the highest reading since March of this year. The component measuring current sales conditions held steady at 34 while the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a one-point decline to 21.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast was unchanged at 44, the Midwest gained one point to 42, the South held steady at 29 and the West increased one point to 26.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was below the consensus forecast.

ICE Requests Removal Of Cuban Illegal Alien Charged With Murder In Texas Beheading

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has lodged a detainer for an illegal immigrant from Cuba who was accused of beheading a victim in Texas with a machete.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents detain an illegal immigrant near Washington in May 2025. Courtesy of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement

In a statement, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said that Yordanis Cobos-Martinez, who has a lengthy rap sheet, is accused of committing the murder at a Dallas motel on Sept. 10.

The suspect “allegedly used a machete to behead a merchant he had an argument [with] in front of the merchant’s spouse and child,” DHS stated.

ICE has since filed a request for Cobos-Martinez to be detained for federal arrest and removal with the Dallas County Jail, where he is being held, the agency confirmed.

Previously, he was convicted of child sex abuse, grand theft of a motor vehicle, false imprisonment, and carjacking, DHS stated.

“This vile monster beheaded this man in front of his wife and child,” DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement. “This gruesome, savage slaying of a victim at a motel by Yordanis Cobos-Martinez was completely preventable if this criminal illegal alien was not released into our country by the Biden Administration since Cuba would not take him back.”

She added that the incident is “exactly why” the department is removing criminal illegal aliens to third countries.

“If you come to our country illegally, you could end up in Eswatini, Uganda, South Sudan, or CECOT,” she said.

CECOT refers to the large prison facility in El Salvador used to house prisoners convicted of murder as well as members of MS-13, which was declared a foreign terrorist organization by the Trump administration earlier this year.

The department added that Cobos-Martinez was held in ICE custody but was released on Jan. 13, 2025, adding that Cuba refused to accept him back because of his criminal history.

“Yordanis Cobos-Martinez has a past final order of removal to Cuba. He was most recently in ICE Dallas custody at the Bluebonnet Detention Center until he was released on an Order of Supervision on Jan. 13, 2025—under the Biden administration,” the DHS stated. “This barbaric criminal was released because Cuba would not accept him because of his criminal history.”

The murder comes as the Trump administration has highlighted crimes committed by illegal immigrants in a bid to deport large numbers of people from the United States.

Last week, ICE was sent to carry out operations to remove illegal immigrants in Chicago, officials said. On Sept. 12, during those operations, an illegal immigrant was shot in the Chicago area by an ICE official after dragging the officer with his vehicle, according to DHS.

The ICE agent was “fearing for his own life” after the individual drove his car at the agent, who then fired his weapon at the individual, the department stated.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 09:35

From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production (IP) ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in August was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization maintained the same rate of 77.4 percent in August, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April 2020, and close to the level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Capacity utilization at 77.4% is 2.2% below the average from 1972 to 2023.  This was at consensus expectations.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production increased to 103.9. This is above the pre-pandemic level.

Industrial production was slightly below consensus expectations (with revisions).

'Real' Retail Sales Rise For 11th Straight Month In August

'Brace yourself for a big beat' is the message from BofA's almost omniscient analysts ahead of this morning's retail sales print for August with the GDP-driving Control Group expected to be particularly hot...

...and once again they nailed it with headline retail sales rising 0.6% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third strong monthly rise in a row (with July's print revised stronger) - leading to a 5.0% YoY rise...

Source: Bloomberg

Core retail sales growth YoY is also surging...

Source: Bloomberg

Onleine sales dominated the upside MoM, along with Motor Vehicles & Clothing...

Source: Bloomberg

Furniture and Department Store sales saw the biggest MoM decline..

Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is nominal, so roughly adjusting for CPI, we see retail sales up 2.1% YoY (the 11th straight month of annual gains in real spending)

Source: Bloomberg

The most notable retail sales cohort - the Control Group - which feeds directly into the GDP calculation, surged 0.7% MoM (well above the 0.4% MoM expected) and up 5.9% YoY. Of course, this is nominal, but still a strong signal for the consumer.

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly a picture of a struggling consumer deal with hyperinflationary Trump tariffs?

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 08:39

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.6% from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 5.0 percent from August 2024.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.0 billion, up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. ... The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent to up 0.6 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline was up 0.6% in August.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 5.4% on a YoY basis.

The change in sales in August were above expectations and the previous two months were revised up.

US Futures Set For Another Record, Nasdaq On Pace For 10th Straight Gain

US equity futures are higher (duh) outperforming global counterparts, while the Nasdaq is on pace for a historic 10th day of gains. As of  8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures were higher by 0.2% with Oracle rising more than 5% in premarket trading on news it may soon be handed control of TikTok. S&P 500 contracts edged higher after the US benchmark powered through the 6,600 mark on Monday. Pre-mkt, Mag7 is displaying strength across multiple members with add’l TMT support from AVGO (+1.4%) and ORCL (+3.7%). Cyclicals and Semis are poised to lead but with pockets of strength in Defensives (HC, Staples) also seen. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.2%. Bond yields are flat to down 1bps with the US Dollar broadly weaker ahead of a widely expected 25bp cut and the resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle which paused in Dec 2024 (right after Trump was elected). US Treasuries have been racing past peers, the euro is nearing four-year highs and Goldman strategists caution that the next pain point for bond traders may come in the five-year part of the curve.  Both Cook and Miran will be a part of the vote. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales where Feroli is below the Street seeing a 0.1% MoM print and 0.3% for the Control Group.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: Tesla rises 1.3%, paring earlier gains after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened a probe over issues with door handles on certain Model Y vehicles. Alphabet gains 1.3% a day after the Google-parent on Monday joined an elite group of companies valued at more than $3 trillion (Nvidia -0.2%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple -0.01%, Amazon +0.5%, Meta Platforms +0.6%)

• Bloom Energy (BE) jumps 7% after Morgan Stanley boosted its price target on the fuel-cell manufacturer to a Street-high, saying the company is much more favorably positioned for success in powering AI data centers.
• Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) tumbles 15% after the restaurant operator reported adjusted earnings per share and revenue for the second quarter that came in well below the average analyst estimate.
• Hershey’s (HSY) gains 2% after Goldman Sachs double upgraded the shares. Analysts said market-share trends are improving, and there are incremental tailwinds ahead for the chocolate and confectionery company.
• New York Times (NYT) shares slip 1.9% after President Donald Trump filed a $15 billion defamation and libel lawsuit against the news organization.
• Oracle (ORCL) rises 5% after CBS News reported that the software giant is among a consortium of firms that would enable TikTok to continue operations in the US if a framework deal is finalized.
• Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) shares fall 1.5% as TD Cowen downgraded to hold from buy after the stock rallied even as Paramount is still to make an official offer.
• Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN) soars 47% after Walt Disney said it plans to acquire a 2% equity interest in the online comics company.

Stock bulls are riding high ahead of a widely expected 25-basis-point Fed cut on Wednesday (potentially as high as 50), the first move in a policy easing round projected to run into 2026. Rate-sensitive tech shares have led the charge in the post-Liberation Day rebound, fueled by enthusiasm over artificial intelligence. Asset managers are growing even more bullish according to the latest BofA survey. But stretched positioning in pockets of the market, with some funds already “maximum long”, is leaving it vulnerable to a shock.

 "Capex and profit forecasts linked to AI are overwhelming,” said Thomas Brenier, head of equities at Lazard Freres Gestion. “Look at Oracle, it seems that the sky is the limit.”

Expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts drove the dollar toward its weakest level since July. The euro climbed 0.4%, nearing its highest mark since 2021. The divergence reflects the Fed’s shift toward easing, in sharp contrast with the European Central Bank, where policymakers have signaled an end to their own loosening cycle. 

As the Nasdaq prints a nine-day winning streak, hedge funds net bought IT stocks at the fastest pace in seven months across all regions, according to Goldman's prime desk. With CTAs max long, corporates increasingly moving into buyout blackouts, and hedge funds likely only able to add at the margin, retail and discretionary investors are left to support equities. 

Meanwhile, the tensions between the Fed and Trump administration escalated Monday. An appeals court temporarily halted the effort to oust Governor Lisa Cook, while the Senate separately approved Trump’s economic adviser Stephen Miran for a seat on the board.

Later on Tuesday, traders are set for a final read on the American consumer. Retail sales data for August are forecast to show a 0.2% increase, following stronger advances in the previous two months, although real -time card spending data hints at an even higher print. Bloomberg economists Eliza Winger and Estelle Ou expect headline retail sales likely grew 0.2% in August, down from 0.5% in July, as auto sales slowed, noting spending remains modest overall with consumers concerned about tariffs and the economy. With the jobs market softening and prices rising, questions remain over how long consumers will keep spending freely.

“In the session ahead, we navigate US retail sales and that poses a degree of risk to markets,” wrote Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group. “However, with the Fed meeting looming large in the following session, it will likely take an outsized surprise in retail sales to really move the dial on risk.”

Stocks may have further upside as rising expectations for economic growth continue to buoy bullish sentiment, according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett. His latest fund manager survey found that a net 28% of global investors are overweight equities, the strongest reading in seven months. Views on growth also showed the biggest positive shift in nearly a year, with only a net 16% of respondents still anticipating an economic slowdown, Hartnett said.

Europe's Stoxx 600 falls 0.1% as the rally that sent US and Asian stocks to fresh highs sputters in Europe.  Italian banks dip on news that the government was drafting plans to raise another €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion) from lenders, while miners gained on the back of rising iron ore prices. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• European mining shares are the best performers in the Stoxx 600 benchmark on Tuesday after iron ore advanced, with China’s daily steel output showing signs of improvement
• Embracer gains as much as 5.5%, the biggest contributor to the Stoxx 600 Index, after Kepler Cheuvreux reiterated its buy rating and boosted its price target for the Swedish gaming group ahead of a spinoff of its Coffee Stain subsidiary
• ASML shares continue to rally Tuesday after JPMorgan said that the worst of newsflow is likely behind the chip-gear firm as better trends in both memory and logic end-markets bode well for the 2027 sales outlook
• Kering shares gain as much as 2.4% after CIC upgraded the French luxury firm to buy from hold on improved outlook following the new CEO’s plans, a creative revamp at Gucci, and its delayed Valentino purchase agreement
• Fresnillo rises as much as 4.6% in London after JPMorgan upgraded the precious metals firm’s price target to 2,500 pence from 2,100 pence and reiterated its overweight rating, as the bank sees further upside for the miner
• Kier Group rises as much as 9.4% as the infrastructure services and construction company reported full-year results that beat estimates on better-than-expected current trading and solid order book
• VusionGroup rises as much as 20%, the most since February, after the French tech group’s full-year sales forecast beat expectations and broker Gilbert Dupont upgraded its rating for the stock
• Yellow Cake shares rise as much as 8.4% in London, hitting their highest level since December, tracking a rise in global peers after the US Energy Secretary said the US should boost its strategic uranium reserve
• Shelf Drilling jumps as much as 34%, the most since August, after Ades increased its cash consideration for the offshore drilling contractor to NOK18.5 per share, from the Aug. 5 offer of NOK14 per share
• Haleon drops as much as 6.1% as Barclays downgrades its rating on the consumer-health company to equal-weight from overweight, based on a tough backdrop in the US
• Granges falls as much as 6.9% after Nordea cut its recommendation on the Swedish aluminum group to hold from buy, saying that while the company is set to gain market share, Nordea struggles to find an inflection point
• Schindler shares slide as much as 2.8% after one of its investors offloaded shares at a discount to Monday’s close. The stock is sliding for a second consecutive session after ending last week at an all-time high
• SThree shares plummet by as much as 28%, their biggest drop this year, after the recruitment company warned it is expecting subdued activity to persist into FY26, hitting its guidance for the year
• Italian banks underperformed on Tuesday after Bloomberg reported that the country’s government is working on a preliminary plan to raise an extra €1.5 billion from lenders in 2027 by postponing their tax deductions

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks surged to a fresh intra-day record, propelled by a rally in chip stocks after Beijing’s anti-monopoly ruling on Nvidia. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% to reach its highest level on record, as chip stocks such as TSMC and Samsung Electronics led gains. Investor sentiment remained upbeat also on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week. Chip stocks jumped on Tuesday after a Chinese regulator ruled that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws in its 2020 acquisition of networking gear maker Mellanox Technologies Ltd. The decision was interpreted by some investors as a signal of Beijing’s push to promote localization and self-sufficiency in chip technology, sparking gains in Chinese home-grown semiconductor firms. Asian equities have been on a tear recently, repeatedly testing a previous high set in 2021. Investor sentiment has gradually improved since April, boosted by easing trade tensions with the US and a resurgence in Chinese stocks due to AI developments and government efforts to cut overcapacity.  Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• The unlisted shares of India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. have surged after investors including global high-speed trading firms bought stakes in the company ahead of its foray into equities.
• Nintendo lost 3.3% after fans were left disappointed by the lack of a new Mario game announcement. Disco shares gained 8.2% after Morgan Stanley said it was its top pick in Japan’s chip sector.
• GCL Technology Holdings Ltd.’s stock rose after the Chinese company announced a share sale to help fund efforts to reduce overcapacity in the solar polysilicon sector.
• Disco shares rose as much as 7.6%, their biggest intraday gain since June 27.
• Nintendo shares lost as much as 4%, the most since June 20, after the firm’s Nintendo Direct event ended without an announcement of a major new Mario game for its Switch 2 console.
• LG Display shares surge as much as 14% on expectations that Apple’s new iPhones will help the Korean display panel supplier report stronger earnings.
• Yunfeng Financial shares slide as much as 15% in Hong Kong after the financial services company and a shareholder offer 191 million shares at HK$6.10 each in a top-up placement.
• Genda shares jump as much as 20% to the daily limit after the Japanese arcade operator reported half-year earnings, with operating profit rising 0.9% from a year earlier.
• Nitto Denko shares fall as much as 3.4%, the most since Aug. 4, after the Japanese specialty chemicals company conducted its annual investor’s meeting on Friday that saw an outlook decline in its new circuit products from the year before.

In FX, the dollar weakens for a second day, boosting G-10 peers. The euro touches highest since July, closing in on its strongest level in four years. Sterling hits a two-month high too after UK jobs data backed a slower pace of cuts by the Bank of England.

In rates, US Treasuries were little changed, with the 10-year yield at 4.04% and European bond markets, mixed for gilts. US government bonds have outpaced global peers this year, delivering a 5.8% return as expectations for policy easing reversed widely held bearish views. 

In commodities, gold hits another record high, trading about $19 higher on the session to around $3,697/oz. Oil prices dip, with Brent slipping closer to $67/barrel.

Today's economic data slate includes August retail sales and import/export prices and September New York Fed services business activity (8:30am), August industrial production (9:15am), and July business inventories and September NAHB housing market index (10am).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.1%
• DAX -0.3%
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.03%
• VIX -0.2 points at 15.48
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1191.97
• euro +0.4% at $1.1808
• WTI crude -0.4% at $63.03/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Lisa Cook is set to take part in the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow after an appeals court blocked Donald Trump from firing the Fed governor. So is Stephen Miran, who was confirmed in a 48-47 Senate vote. BBG
• The SEC said it’s prioritizing Trump’s proposal to reduce the frequency of earnings reports after the president called for an end to quarterly disclosures. BBG
• Trump said Congressional Republicans are working on a short-term clean extension of government funding to stop Senate Minority Leader Schumer from shutting down the government.
• Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum to establish the Memphis Safe Task Force which was said to be a replica of efforts in Washington DC and will include the National Guard. Furthermore, Trump stated they are probably going to go in Chicago next and want to get to New Orleans, while he also commented that they need to save St. Louis.
• A group of GOP senators are working on legislation to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies with policy changes designed to win over conservatives, according to four people granted anonymity to disclose private discussions. Politico
• US reportedly looks to boost national strategic uranium stockpile: BBG 
• Trump has filed a defamation lawsuit against the NYT seeking $15bn in damages from the media organization he accused of being a “mouthpiece” for the Democratic party. FT
• China has significant leverage when it comes to trade negotiations with Washington, including rare earth supplies and agricultural product purchases (China has halted US soybean purchases, delivering a punishing blow to American farmers). NYT
• The world must invest $540 billion annually in oil and gas exploration through 2050 to sustain output, the IEA said. Without new discoveries or demand shifts, supply may shrink by more than 5 million b/d each year — around 40% higher than it was in 2010. BBG
• The US will start formally implementing a lower 15% tariff on imports of Japanese autos and parts starting today. BBG
• Switzerland’s conservative central bank has quietly become one of the world’s biggest tech investors, amassing a stock portfolio that is equivalent in value to nearly a fifth of the national economy’s annual output. The Swiss National Bank has US equity holdings amounting $16bn, with more than $42bn invested in megacap tech. FT
• The UK labor market showed stabilizing signs after a slump triggered by higher taxes. Payrolls dropped by 8,000 in August and vacancies increased for the first time since early 2024, leaving the BOE on track to hold rates later this week. The pound gained. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said he is undecided regarding a TikTok stake, and he will speak with Chinese President Xi about a significant agreement, while he believes discussions with Xi will confirm key matters.
• US opened an inclusions window for the section 232 on steel and aluminium in which the Bureau of Industry and Security established a process for including additional derivative steel and aluminium articles within the scope of the duties authorised by the President under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.
• Playbook citing officials reports that the forum for any UK-US talks on steel/aluminium would be a bilateral meeting, however as of Monday night there was reportedly no sign of a sit-down between UK Chancellor Reeves and US Treasury Secretary Bessent.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed amid some cautiousness ahead of upcoming risk events and despite the fresh record levels on Wall St, where the mega-caps did most of the lifting as Alphabet joined the USD 3tln market cap club. ASX 200 marginally gained with the index led by strength in mining, resources and materials, but with gains capped by weakness in defensives. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses following an early unprecedented climb to above the 45,000 milestone on return from the extended weekend, while the calendar was quiet, although lower US tariffs on Japan took effect. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued despite the recent talks in Madrid where the US and China reached a framework agreement on TikTok although the details were scarce, while US President Trump and Chinese President Xi are scheduled to talk on Friday.

Top Asian News

• Japan's Finance Minister Kato reiterated it is not appropriate to lower the consumption tax and he has decided to support Agricultural Minister Koizumi in the LDP leadership race.
• China is issuing measures on increasing consumption, according to Xinhua. Will launch a series of consumption promotion activities. Will enhance supply of quality services. Will promote an orderly opening up of sectors including the internet and cultures. Will expand pilots in telecoms, medicine and education sectors. Will extend business hours for tourist sites and museums. Will increase consumption credit support. Will coordinate funding channels, including local government special bonds, for new cultural and tourism facilities.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened around the unchanged mark, but sentiment then slipped as markets turned risk-off across the board in the continent. That pressure has since slowed down a little and are off worst levels – but indices are still broadly lower. European sectors are broadly on the backfoot, in-fitting with the risk tone. IT is towards the top of the pile, boosted by strength across Dutch semiconductor names; nothing really driving the upside today, but it does come after ASML (+3%) once again overtook SAP, to become Europe’s largest company. Consumer Staples is found towards the bottom of the pile; Unilever (-1%) moves lower after it appointed a new CFO.

Top European News

• ECB's Villeroy says French growth is not strong enough, but remains positive.

FX

• DXY is on the backfoot; currently trading towards lows of 96.96 Another weak start of the session for the index which remained subdued in APAC hours after weakening yesterday alongside softer US yields and with the greenback not helped by a drop in the NY Fed Manufacturing Survey. Participants now await Industrial Production and Retail Sales data scheduled later today, while the FOMC will also begin its 2-day policy meeting which will be attended by Fed's Cook and Miran, after a US Appeals Court denied the Justice Department's request to put on hold a judge's ruling temporarily blocking Trump from removing Cook, and the US Senate confirmed Miran to join the Fed board.
• EUR/USD mildly benefits from recent dollar weakness and after ECB officials reiterated that interest rates are in a good place. In data, EUR held onto gains following mixed German ZEW survey (Economic Sentiment beat and surprisingly improved but Current Conditions missed and deteriorated), whilst the EZ metrics improved. EUR/USD eventually eclipsed 1.1800 to a current high at 1.1817.
• USD/JPY is softer amid USD weakness and broader JPY strength, with analysts at ING attributing some of the JPY upside to "the more moderate Shinjiro Koizumi is entering the LDP leadership race against Sanae Takaichi, who is seen as yen bearish for her views on loose monetary and fiscal policy." USD/JPY found resistance near its 21 DMA (147.65) to trade in a current range between 146.69-147.54.
• GBP is benefitting from broader dollar weakness and ahead of US President Trump's state visit to the UK, with a presser (likely joint) due on Thursday before the US leader's departure. UK jobs data this morning were largely in line, but a slightly above-forecast employment change prompted a couple of pips of upside in cable, but nothing to write home about. Pricing remains unchanged with markets firmly expecting no change at the BoE this Thursday, with some 97% chance of a hold. Cable trades in a 1.3598-1.3642 range.
• Antipodeans trade rangebound with a slightly softer bias and following an uneventful APAC session. Comments from RBA's Hunter and Hauser provided little to shift the dial - the former noted they are close to getting inflation to the target and that risks around the outlook are balanced.

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat, awaiting the FOMC on Wednesday, but before that, we have a Tier 1 release in the form of retail sales. Expected at +0.2% M/M in August (prev. 0.5%), while the ex-autos measure is seen rising +0.4% M/M, matching the July reading, and the Retail Control group is seen +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.5%). Thereafter, issuance in focus with a 20yr Bond auction scheduled. No concession seen in trade this morning, but that could change in the hours ahead. Elsewhere, the composition of the Fed remains in focus as Cook will remain on the board for at least the September meeting following a court update. Additionally, White House official Miran has been formally approved and will be partaking in the September meeting. Currently, USTs reside in a very thin 113-11 to 113-16 band.
• Bunds are in-fitting with peers throughout the European morning. Gapped higher around the cash equity open, seemingly as a function of the pressure seen in the equity space around this point. German ZEW for September was mixed. Economic sentiment came in above consensus and seemingly spurred some modest pressure in Bunds with financial market experts cautiously optimistic. However, the current situation has deteriorated amid ongoing US tariff concern and into the German fiscal reform window. As such, Bunds quickly retraced that pressure and are back to pre-release levels. Thereafter, a weaker-than-prior German 2030 auction spurred another bout of pressure in Bunds, back towards earlier lows of 128.54.
• Gilts are modestly lower. No significant follow-through from the morning’s jobs data. Overall, the release was broadly in-line with consensus with the labour market continuing to cool though the pace of this is seemingly beginning to slow. While the continued slowing is arguably a dovish sign, it is counteracted by the (as expected) uptick in wages, which remain at levels likely inconsistent with inflation sustainably settling at target over the medium term. Note, the next CPI release is Wednesday, where the headline Y/Y is expected at 3.8% (prev. 3.8%). Elsewhere, supply was soft. A sub-3x cover and a chunky tail, reminiscent of the auction before last. Results of this sent Gilts lower by just under 10 ticks, but comfortably within existing parameters. Gilts opened the morning unchanged from Monday’s close at 91.47, before briefly dipping to a 91.31 low and then retracing to a 91.57 peak.
• UK sells GBP 3bln 4.375% 2040 Gilt: b/c 2.95x (prev. 3.69x), average yield 5.048% (prev. 5.066%) & tail 0.9bps (prev. 0.1bps)
• Germany sells EUR 3.491bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.20% 2030 Bobl: b/c 1.70x (prev. 1.90x), average yield 2.29% (prev. 2.32%) & retention 22.42% (prev. 23.19%)

Commodities

• Subdued trade in the crude complex with aggressive losses seen around the time of the European cash equity open which also came despite USD weakness. One of the bearish factors could be reports that the 19th EU sanctions package against Russia is no longer expected to be presented on Wednesday, via Politico citing an EU diplomat (since corroborated by other reports); no detail on when the sanctions would be unveiled. WTI currently resides in a USD 62.89-63.55/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 67.01-67.68/bbl range.
• Spot gold holds an upward bias as it continues printing fresh records on its way to USD 3,700/oz against the backdrop of a softer dollar and heightened geopolitics. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,674.70-3,697.40/oz range with the top end of the band the latest all-time high.
• Base metals are mostly softer despite the softer dollar and gains in US futures, albeit the mood in Europe is slightly more mixed. 3M LME copper holds above USD 10k/t and resides in a USD 10,087.90-10,177.70/t range at the time of writing.
• Commerzbank revises its gold price forecast upward to USD 3,600/oz for end-year; raises silver year-end forecast for 2025 to USD 41/oz and 2026-end forecast to USD 43/oz.
• Thai Central Bank says they have discussed tax on gold trades; to support gold trades in Dollars; other measures on gold trades were discussed.
• Ukraine's military says it struck Russia's Saratov oil refinery (140k BPD) in overnight attack.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel has launched its ground incursion into Gaza City, two Israeli officials told CNN early Tuesday; One of the officials said the ground incursion is going to be “phased and gradual” at the beginning.
• Israel military official says will be increasing the amount of troops into Gaza city as the days go by.
• US President Trump said Israel won't be attacking Qatar.
• US President Trump posted about Hamas moving hostages above ground to use them as human shields and stated "I hope the Leaders of Hamas know what they’re getting into if they do such a thing. This is a human atrocity, the likes of which few people have ever seen before. Don’t let this happen or, ALL “BETS” ARE OFF. RELEASE ALL HOSTAGES NOW!"
• US Secretary of State Rubio said before heading to Qatar, that they hope Qatar will re-engage on Gaza talks despite everything that's happened, while he added that they have a very short window in which a deal on Gaza can happen and that they are on the verge of finalising an enhanced defence cooperation agreement with Qatar.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Polish government is boosting its cyber security budget to a record EUR 1bn this year, after Russian sabotage attempts targeted hospitals and urban water supplies, according to FT.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said Japan pledged to comply with WTO rules, but will consider measures to raise pressure on Russia and coordinate with G7 countries, when asked about US requests to G7 for higher sanctions on India and China for buying Russian oil.
• The 19th EU sanctions package against Russia is now off the agenda for Wednesday's EU ambassadors meeting, no new date has been set, via an EU official. Confirmation of earlier reporting via Politico
• Russia says its drones have struck a Ukrainian gas distribution station reportedly used by the military.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Aug Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%
• 8:30 am: Aug Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Aug Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Aug Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30 am: Aug Import Price Index YoY, est. 0%, prior -0.2%
• 9:15 am: Aug Industrial Production MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
• 9:15 am: Aug Capacity Utilization, est. 77.4%, prior 77.5%
• 10:00 am: Jul Business Inventories, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Sep NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 33, prior 32

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I woke up this morning the father of a 10-year-old daughter. Where did the time go? Don't tell my family as it's a surprise for tonight, but I spent part of the summer writing and recording a new song and creating a video celebrating Maisie's first decade. The world premiere at home will be after a night out at an escape room tonight... if we escape.

As we await tomorrow’s FOMC decision, markets have continued to power forward over the last 24 hours, with risk appetite supported by positive noises out of the US-China trade talks. That newsflow led to growing optimism that some kind of longer-term truce would eventually be reached between the two, and those hopes of a cooling in the trade war meant both the S&P 500 (+0.47%) and the NASDAQ (+0.94%) closed at another record high. Moreover, it was a decent session for sovereign bonds as well, thanks to mounting anticipation that the Fed would deliver another rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting. So, it was a strong day all round, and US Treasuries also rallied across the curve, with the 10yr yield (-2.8bps) falling back to 4.04%.

Ahead of today's start to the FOMC, an appeals court last night blocked Mr Trump from firing Lisa Cook from the Fed board before her appeal against her dismissal is heard. So, she will likely be at the meeting barring any additional legal action. Stephen Miran could also sit as he was confirmed in his new post by the Senate last night. So, it's shaping up to be an interesting 2-day meeting.

On those US-China headlines, Trump himself posted that the meeting in Madrid “has gone VERY WELL!” and that he would be speaking with President Xi on Friday. Separately, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that “we do have a framework for the deal with TikTok”. This collectively led to a fresh burst of optimism, particularly around stocks which are more exposed to US-China trade. For instance, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index (+0.87%) outperformed, which is an index made up of US-listed companies who do a majority of their business in China.

That positive trade narrative spread across markets, helping to lift global equities as investors grew more hopeful on the path of US-China relations. After all, there’s still a lot of tension between the two sides, and it’s worth remembering that the tariffs are still subject to a temporary 90-day truce in place between the two sides, which currently runs out in November. The hope is that continued engagement will eventually lead to a more durable truce, avoiding the possibility of US tariffs jumping back up to the 145% rate seen after Liberation Day. Indeed, US Trade Representative Greer said on the tariff extension, that “We’re certainly open to considering further action there, if the talks continue in a positive direction”.

This backdrop led to a fresh global advance, with the S&P 500 (+0.47%) at another all-time high whilst in Europe the Stoxx 600 (+0.42%) closed 1% from its all-time high reached back in March. In fact, the S&P 500 is now on track to have risen for 6 of the last 7 weeks, which would be the most sustained advance of 2025 so far. Those moves were led by tech stocks, with both the NASDAQ (+0.94%) and the Magnificent 7 (+1.95%) hitting fresh highs of their own. Alphabet (+4.49%) became the fourth company to reach a $3trn valuation while Tesla (+3.56%) also outperformed following news that Elon Musk had purchased around $1bn worth of Tesla shares. Nvidia lost ground after China found they’d violated their antitrust law with a deal in 2020, but its stock was only down -0.04% by the close. The strong day ended with the S&P 500 up +12.47% for the year, even as most of its constituents were lower on the day.

For sovereign bonds, it was generally a strong day as well. But French bonds saw a relative underperformance after Friday’s news that Fitch Ratings had downgraded their credit rating from AA- to A+. Yields on 10yr OATs (-2.8bps) were only down a bit to 3.48%, whilst those on Italian BTPs fell by a larger -4.7bps to 3.47%. That’s a significant move, because it’s the first time since 1999 that France’s 10yr yield has closed above Italy’s, having briefly moved above on an intraday basis last week. Clearly this trend has been apparent for some time, but it’s a striking re-ordering of how investors perceive the risk of different sovereigns, having been in a completely different place at the height of the Euro crisis in the early 2010s.

In absolute terms however, it was still a strong day for sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. For example, US Treasury yields came down across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-1.9bps) falling to 3.54%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.8bps) fell to 4.04%, which further helped to ease fears about the fiscal trajectory. The bond rally got a further push from the NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey for September, which fell to a 3-month low of -8.7 (vs. +5.0 expected), coming in beneath every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. So that helped to boost expectations for a faster cycle of Fed rate cuts, with the amount of cuts priced in by the June meeting up +2.0bps on the day to 120bps. And that move lower for yields was clear across the rest of Europe too, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.4bps) and gilts (-3.9bps) both falling as well.
The lower rates backdrop weighed on the dollar, with the dollar index (-0.25%) falling to its lowest in almost eight weeks. Meanwhile, gold (+0.98%) reached a record high for the ninth time in twelve sessions at $3,679/oz.

In Asia, the KOSPI (+1.18%) is leading gains, touching a new peak as heavyweight chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are sharply higher while the Nikkei (+0.50%) is also trading in positive territory after returning from a holiday. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.12%) is swinging between gains and losses while on the mainland the CSI (-0.39%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.10%) are bucking the positive regional trend with both drifting lower after strong recent gains. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.31%) is also edging higher. S&P 500 (+0.09%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.14%) futures are also trading slightly higher.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales and industrial production for August, the German ZEW survey for September, Canada’s CPI for August, and the UK’s latest employment report. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Escriva.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 08:29

A Circular Economy & The Four Archetypes Of Bitcoiners

Authored by Fernando Motolese via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Trying to build a Bitcoin circular economy in Brazil and lobbying politicians led me to uncovering four archetypes of Bitcoiners: the coordinators, the market pragmatists, the monetary purists, and the Bitcoin minimalists. Here’s what I’ve learned...

A few years ago, I made an unlikely bet: to build a Bitcoin circular economy in the heart of a fishing village in Brazil’s Northeast. No venture capitalists, no “crypto,” no empty promises. Only nodes, satoshis, in‑person education and plenty of sidewalk conversations. 

That is how Praia Bitcoin Jericoacoara was born: a radical experiment in financial sovereignty built with open source tools and feet in the sand.

In four years at Praia Bitcoin Jericoacoara, we turned a beach town into a living Bitcoin classroom: We onboarded families, shopkeepers and street vendors; taught self‑custody in small groups; installed reliable Lightning routes and point‑of‑sale tools; ran social programs paid in sats; and hosted meetups that made Bitcoin part of daily life.

Living on the Bitcoin standard, I began to see what is really happening at the technological edge. 

In August 2025, I published four short articles on X. Different in form and tone, they converged on the same question: What role should Bitcoin play, and what role should we play in building it? They came in fours:

• a field report on our work with the Bitcoin Community Bank in Jericoacoara

• a critique of bitcoin maximalism’s rigidity

• a diplomatic letter inviting Bhutan’s prime minister to consider the satoshi as a unit of account, and

• a public appeal to keep Bitcoin a peer‑to‑peer cash system. 

What they share is the desire to align practice, theory, and a future‑facing vision.

In the first piece, I shared the challenges and lessons from a real experiment: building a Bitcoin‑based circular economy in Northeast Brazil. Inspired by Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador, we rooted the Jericoacoara project in education, inclusion and local infrastructure. We installed servers, onboarded merchants and neighbors, created social programs and sought institutional recognition as a Community Bitcoin Bank.

Building a Bitcoin Circular Economy in Jericoacoara

I’m deeply inspired by the progress of @BitcoinEkasi, the momentum of the #spedn movement across Africa, and the compelling journey of @orphansofuganda. These initiatives prove that Bitcoin can serve as a true medium of… pic.twitter.com/KiGndjGZen

— Praia Bitcoin Brazil ⚡ (@BitcoinBeachBR) August 2, 2025

We were rejected by the local authorities. Even in the face of the state’s legal and political unpreparedness, we moved forward with conviction. We believe that when Bitcoin is rooted in place, it can be more than money; it can be a tool for community transformation. Yet authorities struggled to understand this, and they denied our request to register what would have been the first Bitcoin community bank.

In the second piece, I confronted an ideological tension within the community itself. Maximalist rhetoric, which defends Bitcoin as the only legitimate project and treats the rest of “crypto” as scams, had its historical role. It helped protect the integrity of the ecosystem, exposed frauds and accelerated market maturation. But does it still serve the goal of large‑scale adoption? Does it help communicate Bitcoin’s value to newcomers? I caught myself ignoring relevant technological solutions simply because they were outside the maximalist bubble. 

After revisiting the discussion and reading every reply and quote, my conclusion was that other projects end up serving as funnels, sandboxes or distribution channels that drive people toward real Bitcoin adoption. Stablecoins, altcoins, memecoins, and centralized cryptocurrencies are moving toward Bitcoin, absorbing inflation and even helping to establish the prices of other commodities. Perhaps it is time for a new posture: not abandoning principles, but embracing a Bitcoin that keeps the focus on the essence while remaining willing to engage with a world in constant transformation, with skepticism and an open mind; by educating regulators that Bitcoin is the decentralized cryptocurrency and that all other projects are centralized cryptocurrencies.

In the third piece, I took this vision into the diplomatic arena. I wrote an open letter to Bhutan’s prime minister suggesting that the country consider adopting the satoshi as its national unit of account.

Open Letter to Dr. Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Bhutan

Your Excellency @tsheringtobgay,
It is with deep respect and admiration that I write to you, recognizing Bhutan’s remarkable journey in preserving its sovereignty, cultural identity, and commitment to Gross National… pic.twitter.com/2tuTgfzAQi

— Praia Bitcoin Brazil ⚡ (@BitcoinBeachBR) August 19, 2025

The proposal, more symbolic than technical, had a clear goal: to imagine how Bitcoin can engage with alternative development models that do not depend on the IMF or the dollar and that respect local culture and sovereignty. The reaction to the letter revealed something important: even within the Bitcoin ecosystem there are ideological lanes: conservatives, centrists and progressives, each trying to interpret the protocol through a distinct worldview.

This article is therefore a point of convergence. It ties together those three experiences (practical, ideological and diplomatic) to propose a fresh look at what we are really trying to build. More than repeating dogmas, this moment calls for discernment. More than talking about freedom, it is time to practice it where it is most needed — on the ground, in our language, in our institutions and in our relationships.

In the fourth piece, I distilled my open note to Bitcoin Core into a simple point: keep Bitcoin a peer‑to‑peer cash system, not a generic data host.

Hello @bitcoincoreorg,

We live Bitcoin. We dedicate our lives to it, full time, nonstop. On the ground, we work as part of Bitcoin’s invisible team, often without salaries, simply because we believe in its power to fix money and defend society from injustice and… pic.twitter.com/QLieljdVJn

— Praia Bitcoin Brazil ⚡ (@BitcoinBeachBR) August 23, 2025

I argued that loosening default data‑carrying settings invites bloat, legal risk and reputational damage, and asked developers to think in centuries, not release cycles. I also noted that recent Core releases, v29 and v30, revisited how much extra data transactions may carry by default. That lives at the technical edge of the protocol — software defaults, not the monetary rules. Bitcoin is money. Like a banknote you can scribble on but not use to publish a book, transactions can include small notes but should not be hijacked for unrelated content.

This context raised a bigger question: What do we want Bitcoin to be? The exchange made the fault lines clear: different groups love Bitcoin for different reasons and accept different trade‑offs. In the next section, I name those lanes and show how they fit together.

Watching Bitcoin Knots gain visibility relative to Bitcoin Core, and hearing developers complain about its pull‑request process, reminded me of the First Follower lesson. Knots is largely maintained by a single developer. 

Movements do not scale because a lone leader is brilliant. They scale when early followers make participation visible and easy, lowering social risk and showing others exactly how to behave.

From inside the industry, spending countless hours analyzing geopolitics and future trends, I began to see Bitcoiners in four main categories, with the extremes on both sides clearly defined so let’s break them down. 

The Four Archetypes of Bitcoin Bitcoin Database, Coordination Builders

Core belief: Bitcoin is a neutral public record. It can coordinate people and software. Money is one powerful use, not the only one.

What they prioritize: Time‑stamps and proofs; public records; identity attestations; new media on Bitcoin; social protocols like Nostr; building most features on upper layers so L1 stays stable.

What they get right: They attract builders and new users with fresh ideas and on‑ramps. More experiments mean more chances to find lasting utility.

Risks and blind spots: The spotlight can drift away from money. Too much nonmonetary data can waste block space and invite controversy. New systems sometimes reintroduce trusted middlemen.

Attitude to Lightning: Open, when it helps apps feel instant. Also explore other rails. Keep L1 simple.

North Star checks: Useful apps with real users; active developers; low, respectful footprint on L1.

Frequent examples: Casey Rodarmor and Ordinals; Muneeb Ali and Stacks; Burak and Ark research; Maxim Orlovsky and RGB; fiatjaf and Nostr; OpenTimestamps. (Note: this is illustrative, not endorsements.)

Tagline: “Bitcoin is a database.”

Bitcoin Central, Market Pragmatists

Core belief: Bitcoin is money and an asset. Price and liquidity drive adoption at scale and help fund security and development.

What they prioritize: ETFs and treasuries; compliant on‑ramps and off‑ramps; deep, healthy markets; education for investors and institutions.

What they get right: Liquidity brings the next wave of users and pays for builders, mining and education.

Risks and blind spots: Convenience custody and short‑term thinking. Distribution can concentrate in a few large hands.

Attitude to Lightning: Pragmatic. Use it when it helps reach more people.

North Star checks: Market depth and volumes; hashrate security budget; ETF and retail participation.

Frequent examples: Michael Saylor; iShares and Fidelity Bitcoin ETFs; market makers; on‑chain analysts. Edge Case: High leverage and over‑reliance on corporate treasuries.

Tagline: “We care about price.”

Bitcoin Conservatives, Monetary Purists

Core belief: Bitcoin is money. Protect the base layer. Scarcity, neutrality and self‑custody are nonnegotiable. Save first, then spend (e.g., in a circular economy).

What they prioritize: Simple, stable rules on L1; run your own node; education on keys, UTXOs, and fees; miner and client diversity; long time horizons.

What they get right: Clear incentives and strong culture. If money is broken, every price in the economy is wrong. Fix money first.

Risks and blind spots: UX and payments can lag. Newcomers may feel gatekept. Adoption can slow if everyday use is ignored.

Attitude to Lightning: Often skeptical. Prefer on‑chain finality and warn about complexity and custodial drift.

North Star checks: More coins in self‑custody; healthy node count; decentralized mining; growing long‑term holder supply.

Frequent examples: Saifedean Ammous; Pierre Rochard; proof‑of‑keys style campaigns; full‑node culture and cold storage. Edge Case: Never sell. Treat every altcoin as a scam.

Tagline: “Bitcoin is digital gold.”

Bitcoin Minimalists: Digital Gold and Digital Cash, Tool for Social Transformation

Core belief: Bitcoin should be digital gold for saving and digital cash for spending, with the smallest possible trust surface.

What they prioritize: Save on‑chain with final settlement; spend via noncustodial Lightning where possible; use ecash mints like Cashu for privacy with simple exit to keys; merchant flows that settle to self custody.

What they get right: Align savings and daily use without giving up sovereignty.

Risks and blind spots: Friction and slower distribution; reluctance to adopt UX abstractions; fragmentation across minimal stacks.

Attitude to Lightning: Yes, but strict. Prefer noncustodial or minimally trusted setups. Be cautious with large custodial hubs.

North‑star checks: Users who both save on‑chain and spend via non‑custodial L2; easy withdrawals to keys; high payment success without custodians.

Tagline: “Buy, spend, replace.”

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s culture includes four honest defaults that often talk past one another. Builders expand the surface area, market pragmatists prove everyday utility, monetary purists scale distribution and minimalists protect the base.

Together. they create a productive tension that keeps Bitcoin useful and resilient for real people.

After years of working in a circular economy and writing publicly about these debates, my view is simple. Bitcoin is money. Keep the base layer simple. Save in bitcoin on-chain. Spend in sats when it serves people, as it does in a circular economy. Support Lightning only when the exit to your own keys stays clear and simple. I do not support the “Bitcoin as Database” path, because turning Bitcoin into a general data host distracts from its monetary mission and invites waste, confusion, and reputational harm.

The way forward is practical and principled. Judge ideas by whether they grow self custody, make payments reliable without custodians, deepen liquidity that funds security and education and respect the limits of the base layer. If we hold to that standard, the lanes can complement one another and more people will share in the benefits of a free, neutral and credibly decentralized money.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 08:05

Ground Beef Inflation Sizzles, Egg Prices Cool Off

The best bang for the buck in the grocery store protein aisle this year hasn't been beef, it's been eggs. Prices have plummeted thanks to President Trump's swift action to fix the Biden-Harris regime's botched bird flu culling disaster. By contrast, ground beef has surged to a record $6.32 per pound, squeezed by the smallest US cattle herd in decades, with a bleak outlook despite some signs of a rebuilding phase nearing. 

Here's more from Bloomberg: 

For more than a year, egg prices have served as the poster child for the higher cost of living in the US. That distinction may soon move over to the beef market, said Darin Parker, president of global meat trader Parker-Migliorini International Llc. Parker warns that Americans will keep paying more for burgers as restrictions on Brazilian imports further squeeze already tight domestic supplies. Indeed, one measure of US retail prices shows that ground beef has climbed more than 10% since January, while eggs dropped nearly 30%.

Beef inflation is sticky, while egg prices have cooled.

Egg prices are back to pre-crisis levels. 

Meanwhile.

Related:

• 12-Year Cattle Cycle Bottoms: Tyson CEO Predicts Rebuild Phase Beginning Next Year

• Tyson Foods Confirms Protein Switching Underway Amid Record High Beef Prices

• Got Beef? 12-Year Cycle Signals "Cyclical Low"

• Cattle Herd Rebuild Begins Just As Consumers Get Slaughtered By Record Beef Prices

The next cattle herd rebuild cycle must bring small, family-run ranchers back into the fold if America wants a resilient domestic beef supply.

Supporting independent journalism goes hand in hand with supporting independent ranchers - both make this nation stronger. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 06:55

"Be Warned, We Are Hunting You": Trump Unleashes Second Attack On 'Narcoterrorists' Near Venezuela

With Venezuela President Maduro stating the country is readying for an "armed struggle", President Trump has unleashed hell on a second vessel ferrying drugs from Venezuela, confirming his determination to proceed with attacks.

US forces “conducted a SECOND Kinetic Strike against positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists” in the US Southern Command’s area of responsibility, Trump wrote in a social media post.

“The Strike occurred while these confirmed narcoterrorists from Venezuela were in International Waters transporting illegal narcotics  (A DEADLY WEAPON POISONING AMERICANS!) headed to the U.S.”

Trump continued:

"These extremely violent drug trafficking cartels POSE A THREAT to U.S. National Security, Foreign Policy, and vital U.S. Interests.

The Strike resulted in 3 male terrorists killed in action.

No U.S. Forces were harmed in this Strike. 

The post included a link to a video that showed a vessel rolling in the waves in unidentified waters. After several seconds it is consumed by a massive fireball.

. @POTUS “This morning, on my Orders, U.S. Military Forces conducted a SECOND Kinetic Strike against positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. The Strike occurred while these confirmed… pic.twitter.com/KQYiEpqsGb

— DOW Rapid Response (@DOWResponse) September 15, 2025

Trump concluded with a warning:

"BE WARNED — IF YOU ARE TRANSPORTING DRUGS THAT CAN KILL AMERICANS, WE ARE HUNTING YOU!

The illicit activities by these cartels have wrought DEVASTATING CONSEQUENCES ON AMERICAN COMMUNITIES FOR DECADES, killing millions of American Citizens.

NO LONGER.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!”

Just hours earlier, Maduro reiterated that recent incidents between his country and the United States are an "aggression" by the U.S., not tensions between the two countries, and that there is no communication between the governments.

Also on Sunday Trump while talking to reporters in Morristown, New Jersey, suggested he would not rule out strikes on mainland Venezuela, amid speculation that Maduro could at some point retaliate in some form.

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"We'll see what happens," Trump said. "Venezuela is sending us their gang members, their drug dealers, and drugs. It's not acceptable."

Just as the second Monday strike was being widely reported, The Intercept issued some new information concerning the first strike, which occurred on September 2:

Last Tuesday, senior staff from House leadership and relevant committees were barred by the Office of the Secretary of War from attending a briefing on the first attack, according to three government sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The military cited “alternative compensatory control measures” — the term for enhanced security procedures designed to keep information under wraps — as the reason.

The War Department has attempted to conceal numerous details about the attack that killed 11 people in the Caribbean, including the fact that the vessel altered its course and appeared to have turned back toward shore prior to the strikes. Men on board were said to have survived an initial strike, The Intercept reported last week. They were then killed shortly after in a follow-up attack.

If this continues to escalate, and it looks to - given this latest strike, there will be serious questions raised about Congressional involvement - especially if limited briefings are only happening after the fact. For example, it is only now belatedly emerging that the first strike came from a drone attack, according to one of the lone Congressional dissenters, Republican Rep. Rand Paul.

"A very small number of Senate and House staffers, mostly from the Armed Services committees, received highly classified briefings about the attack last Tuesday, after the military delayed the meeting for days," The Intercept detailed further. "Staff for key members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which oversee war powers, were conspicuously absent."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 06:55

Speculation Is Swirling About The Future Of Turkiye's S-400s

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Turkish media recently claimed that Russia offered to buy back their country’s S-400s that it received in 2019 in order to then resell them to other clients, which Turkiye is supposedly receptive to since it wants to end its spat with the US over this and is also developing a domestic analogue that can replace them. 

Polish media added that “Ankara still does not actively use them. They were never integrated into NATO, their missiles are already halfway through their shelf life, and maintenance costs pose a burden”.

Meanwhile, Indian media suggested that this deal could result in their country finally receiving its delayed S-400s, which would first have to be upgraded by Russia. While neither Russia nor Turkiye have confirmed this report, it’s sensible enough to be taken seriously for the time being at least. Russia can’t spare any S-400s from the front for export, Turkiye has since largely reconciled with the US and no longer needs the S-400s either, while India is eager to receive more of these systems as soon as possible.

Each corresponding party’s interests are more urgent than ever because:

• Russia needs to regain its rapidly declining role in the global arms market after most of its production has been redirected from export to the front since 2022;

• the new TRIPP Corridor creates the basis for a US-Turkish military-strategic partnership along Russia’s entire southern periphery so long as the S-400-related US sanctions are first lifted;

• and spring’s Indo-Pak clashes made air defense a renewed priority for Delhi.

The original goal behind Turkiye’s import of the S-400s is no longer relevant either. Back then, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan deeply distrusted the US due to its (at minimum indirect) role in summer 2016’s failed coup, hence why he agreed to this air defense deal a year later. Turkiye was also very displeased with direct US military support for Ankara-designated Kurdish terrorists in Syria. After TRIPP and Jolani’s/Sharaa’s rise to power, however, the aforesaid imperatives became outdated for the most part.

The stage is therefore set for a grand deal between the US, Turkiye, Russia, and India, at least in theory and only tacitly in the case of the US-Russia, US-India, and Turkiye-India, but it remains to be seen whether it’ll materialize.

There are some forces that might torpedo it though, chiefly hardliners in the US and Russia, who might respectively object to the principle of a NATO ally selling military equipment back to Moscow and Russia buying back a weapons system that it sold to a NATO ally who now funds Ukraine.

Each side’s hardliners would therefore have to be sidelined in order for this deal to go through and it can’t be assumed that both Trump and Putin are able to do so in the current political conditions amidst escalating US-Russian tensions.

Furthermore, the US is also taking a hard line against India nowadays led by Trump personally, which reduces the odds that it would agree to have Turkiye indirectly supply India with Russia’s S-400s after Trump just punitively tariffed India for continuing to buy Russian arms.

Accordingly, while the details of this proposed arrangement make perfect sense with respect to each side’s interests as explained, political factors vis-à-vis the calculations of American and Russian hardliners could ultimately ruin any possibility for such a deal.

If the political will exists at each of those two’s highest levels, however, then it’s recommended that they encourage their media surrogates to articulate the inherent strategic benefits in order to help persuade the hardliners to reconsider their resistance.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 06:30

How Much Metal Can $10K Buy?

The prices of metals reflect a contrast between rarity, utility, and value.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, breaks down how much of each metal you could purchase with $10,000, showing their respective weights in kilograms.

At one end of the scale, $10,000 barely buys a handful of gold dust. On the other, it secures literal tons of industrial metals like aluminum and zinc.

The data for this visualization comes from Daily Metal Prices.

Precious Metals: Small in Size, Big in Value

Gold tops the chart in value, costing over $108 million per metric ton. That means $10,000 only gets you 92 grams, barely more than a chocolate bar.

Platinum and palladium are slightly less expensive but still highly valuable, offering just a few hundred grams per $10,000. These metals are prized for their rarity, beauty, and industrial applications, especially in electronics and catalytic converters.

Industrial Metals: Value in Volume

On the opposite end are base metals like aluminum, zinc, and copper. These materials are far more abundant and are critical to infrastructure and manufacturing. For example, with $10,000, you could buy 3,815 kilograms of aluminum, enough to construct dozens of bicycles. Even copper, a more valuable industrial metal, yields over a metric ton for the same amount of money.

Strategic and Emerging Materials

In between are metals like lithium and nickel, which are crucial to green technologies, batteries, and energy systems. Lithium, priced at nearly $12,000 per ton, yields 838 kg for $10,000, while nickel provides 667 kg.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Charted: Where the U.S. Gets Its Rare Earths From on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 05:45