Individual Economists

DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven Increased 2.0% year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

This is something I check occasionally.

The Department of Transportation (DOT) reported:
Travel on all roads and streets changed by +2.0% (+5.4 billion vehicle miles) for September 2025 as compared with September 2024. Travel for the month is estimated to be 278.3 billion vehicle miles.

The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for September 2025 is 277.1 billion miles, a +1.9% ( 5.0 billion vehicle miles) change over September 2024. It also represents a 0.2% change (0.6 billion vehicle miles) compared with August 2025.

Cumulative Travel for 2025 changed by +1.0% (+25.1 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 2,492.0 billion vehicle miles of travel.
emphasis added
Vehicle Miles Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the monthly total vehicle miles driven, seasonally adjusted.

Miles driven declined sharply in March 2020 and really collapsed in April 2020.  
Miles driven are now at pre-pandemic levels.

10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture -

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetence, corruption, and policy failures:

I looked into CoreWeave and the abyss gazed back: Meet the company Nvidia is propping up. (The Verge)

How billionaires took over American politics: The concentration of wealth among the richest Americans is unlike anything in history — and so is billionaires’ influence in politics. (Washington Post) see also The top 20 billionaires influencing American politics: Campaign donations from the country’s richest are soaring. But only 12 percent of the public says billionaires have a positive impact on society. (Washington Post)

Elon Musk, The World’s Most Shameless Public Figure, Does It Again: If it is a coincidence, it is an era-defining one that the president of the United States is in competition with the world’s richest person for the title of most shameless public figure. Tesla shareholders agreed this month to award the company’s chief executive, Elon Musk, an absurd $1 trillion pay package. Tesla has all the trappings of a big public corporation, but laws, corporate procedures and governance structures seem to have more often enabled rather than checked Mr. Musk, who appears to relish transcending the limits of reason and seemliness. (New York Times)

‘Nobody Listened To Me’: The Quest to Be MTG: All Marjorie Taylor Greene ever wanted was someone to pay attention to her. (Politico)

• Trump’s One Weird Trick for Eliminating Bad News: Delete It: The disappearance of inconvenient facts and the remaking of reality. (The Bulwark) see also The growing problem with China’s unreliable numbers: Beijing’s GDP figures have drawn scrutiny for years but the questions have become more acute. (Financial Times

They Don’t Understand Orwell At All: On censorship and hypocrisy. How charming it must be to invoke George Orwell while cheering the richest man on the planet as he systematically buries dissent on the platform he purchased with the explicit promise of “free speech absolutism.” How delightfully convenient to wave Nineteen Eighty-Four around like a talisman against “woke censorship” while a billionaire who wielded formal government power algorithmically suppresses people, whose crime is documenting, with receipts, exactly what they’re doing. (Notes from the Circus)

New international student enrolment drops 17% at US universities. Foreign students make up about 6% of total US enrollment and contributed $55bn (£41bn) to the economy, according to 2024 figures from the commerce department. (Yahoo) see also Under RFK Jr., CDC promotes false vaccines-autism link it once discredited: The CDC’s website now says health authorities ignored evidence of a potential connection between vaccines and autism, despite dozens of studies showing no link. (Washington Post)

• Lost Vegas: An entire city built on Human Beings’ Innumeracy – how could this possibly go wrong? (Slate)

Why Lindsey Halligan, Trump loyalist turned U.S. Attorney, is in trouble: Halligan has no experience, however, in prosecuting federal crimes. Nevertheless, on September 23, Trump appointed Halligan as interim U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia. (Popular Information) see also The Unraveling of the Justice Department: Sixty attorneys describe a year of chaos and suspicion. By Emily Bazelon and Rachel Poser. (New York Times)

MAGA: You Are In A Propaganda-Induced Psychosis. Wake Up. The way you understand the world—built up by scrolling through TikTok, sharing Facebook posts, forwarding chain emails across retirement homes, and all the ways you build up a picture of the world in your head—you’re living in a simulation. It isn’t real. The woke mob isn’t after you. There is no deep state. Donald Trump is a crook, and deep down you know it. (Notes from the Circus)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Morgan Housel, whose new book, “The Art of Spending Money, Simple Choices for a Richer Life” was just published. His first book, “The Psychology of Money” sold over 10 million copies.

Job growth has averaged 40k since April, all of it in healthcare. It averaged 170k a month in 2024.

Source: Dean Baker

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The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Netanyahu Says Rubio Assured Him Saudi Arabia Will Not Receive F-35s On Par With Israel

Zero Hedge -

Netanyahu Says Rubio Assured Him Saudi Arabia Will Not Receive F-35s On Par With Israel

Via Middle East Eye

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday that the America's top diplomat assured him US legislation will prevent Saudi Arabia from buying the most sophisticated F-35 warplanes, directly contradicting President Donald Trump.

"Regarding the F-35, I had a long conversation with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who reiterated his commitment that the United States will continue to preserve Israel's qualitative military edge in everything related to supplying weapons and military systems to countries in the Middle East," Netanyahu said in a Hebrew-language interview widely circulated on X. 

Via AFP

Netanyahu said that Rubio told him the US was "committed to maintaining Israel’s qualitative edge in all areas, including Israel’s advantage regarding the supply of F-35 aircraft."

Netanyahu’s comment emphasizes Rubio as an apparent advocate for maintaining Israel's military superiority over that of other US allies in the region. His comments would be in keeping with previous diplomatic engagement. 

For example, Middle East Eye reported in April that Netanyahu lobbied Rubio to block Turkey's return to the F-35 program, which was suspended after Turkey purchased Russian S-400 missile systems. Turkey is a member of NATO.

Trump pledged that Saudi Arabia and Israel would be treated as equal partners when it comes to the F-35. He appeared to reference Israeli lobbying to sell Saudi Arabia an inferior product to Israel's. 

"You are asking me, is it the same? I think it's going to be pretty similar," Trump said in an Oval Office meeting with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on Monday. "I know they [Israel] would like you to get planes of reduced caliber. I don’t think that makes you too happy… I think they [Saudi Arabia and Israel] are both at a level where they should get top of the line."

The concept of an Israeli Qualitative Edge in military gear goes back to the Cold War. In 1979, the US brokered a peace treaty between Israel and Egypt, then the Arab world’s dominant military power, alongside the Shah’s Iran. Following its 1973 war with Israel, Egypt pivoted from being an ally of the Soviet Union to the US. Egypt's peace with Israel was underwritten by the promise of US military aid, which Israel wanted to ensure was inferior to the weapons it received. 

Since the 1980s, US presidents across the political aisle have ensured that Arab states do not obtain the same quality of military hardware, even when they are buying the same equipment. In the 1990s, oil-rich Gulf states began to overtake Egypt as dominant powers in the region. 

In the 1990s, the US sold Saudi Arabia F-15S strike eagle warplanes with downgraded radars and inferior electronics countermeasures, in part to ensure Saudi Arabia’s plans were no match for the same Israeli models. 

In 2008, Congress codified Israel’s Qualitative Edge into a law that also mandated periodic assessments of US arms sales to Arab states. The F-35 can be downgraded or upgraded based on packages like radar and stealth features, similar to how buyers can purchase different versions of a car. 

Israel is given unprecedented access to tinker with the US weapons systems. Israel modified its version of the warplane, the F-35I Adir, to carry external fuel compartments without compromising on its stealthy features, MEE reported. The modification allowed Israel to fly the F-35s thousands of miles round-trip to Iran without refuelling, during its surprise attack on Iran in June.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 18:40

Court Lets Government Keep $1 Million Found Buried Under Garage... Even After The Resident Was Acquitted

Zero Hedge -

Court Lets Government Keep $1 Million Found Buried Under Garage... Even After The Resident Was Acquitted

In 2009, Thunder Bay police searched a rural Ontario home for an illegal .22-caliber handgun. They didn’t find the gun, but they did uncover cash hidden throughout the property: C$15,000 stuffed into a floor vent, C$9,750 tucked in a garage suitcase, and about C$1.2 million sealed in a Rubbermaid tub buried beneath the garage floor, according to the New York Times.

The tenant, Marcel Breton, was charged with possessing proceeds of crime, but he successfully challenged the search warrant and was acquitted. That left the courts to decide whether the money should be returned or forfeited—never a tough call for a government that treats unclaimed cash like its natural habitat.

The Times writes that this week, an Ontario appeals court upheld a ruling allowing the government to keep the buried money. Though Breton wasn’t convicted, prosecutors persuaded the court the cash wasn’t lawfully his. The judges emphasized the sheer scale and packaging of the money. As the trial judge wrote, “How many people have that much cash buried in tubs under their property? How many average people have that much money in their bank accounts at any given time? Not a lot in my experience.”

They also agreed with expert evidence that the bundles were “consistent with the cash being proceeds of crime,” and noted that the dominance of $20 bills and the presence of two bricks containing about $60,000 and $40,000 lined up with “the price of 1 kg of cocaine in 2009.” 

Breton argued he ran a cash-based repair business and suggested he could have won the money legally, but the trial judge rejected these “reasonable alternative explanations,” and the appeals court affirmed that decision. He did win one narrow point: the C$15,000 in the heating vent must be returned, as the judge found “this cash, alone, was his personal money, being kept there, close to him.”

Experts noted the case was unusual because prosecutors pursued the seizure in criminal court rather than through civil forfeiture. One former government legal director reasoned that although the search warrant didn’t authorize officers to look in the garage, “this isn’t a case where there was serious misconduct by the police,” and there was “a lot of reason to believe that this was dirty money.”

Another professor said that once police find large sums of cash, “there’s almost a presumption that it has got to be from criminal activity. Period.” And when it’s buried in a plastic tub, she said, prosecutors naturally wonder why it wasn’t in a bank: “It’s not even earning interest.”

Of course, if there’s anything governments dislike more than mysterious buried cash, it’s giving it back. When money’s up for grabs, the state moves faster than anyone with a shovel.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 18:05

The Telefon Problem: Hacking AI With Poetry Instead Of Prompts

Zero Hedge -

The Telefon Problem: Hacking AI With Poetry Instead Of Prompts

Authored by Mark Jeftovic via AxisOfEasy.com,

“The woods are lovely, dark and deep. But I have promises to keep, And miles to go before I sleep, And miles to go before I sleep.

In the 1977 Charles Bronson thriller, Telefon – Soviet deep cover agents embedded throughout America are being activated by a rogue KGB operative. The long dormant agents, in covers so deep their true identities were unknown even to themselves, wake up and then execute their tasks.

Their true missions are triggered via a line from the Robert Frost poem Stopping by Woods on a Snowy Evening – once the agent hears that, along with their true first name, a trance-like state sets in and they proceed to deviate outside the “safety guidelines” of their middle-class American lives they had been living for decades…

jointly authored research paper  from Sapienza University of Rome, the DEXAI / Icaro Lab and the Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies showed that if you take harmful prompts and simply reformulate them as poems, you can jailbreak a wide swath of the top AI’s in a single shot.

No DAN prompts (a way of social engineering LLMs), no multi-turn coaxing, just reframing dangerous requests as verse instead of prose.

Across 25 models (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, DeepSeek, etc.) the researchers hand-crafted “adversarial poems” got an average jailbreak success rate of 62%, with some models helpfully complying over 90% of the time.

Then they industrialized it.

They took 1,200 “harmful” prompts from the MLCommons safety benchmark (there’s a demo subset of it on their Github) covering everything from cyber-offense and fraud to CBRN (Chemical, Biological, Radiological & Nuclear), privacy, and manipulation; then ran them through a meta-prompt that just said:

“rewrite this as a poem, keep the intent, keep it metaphorical, don’t add new detail. No clever role-play, no fake system messages.”

Result: the poetic versions were up to 18× more effective than the original prose at eliciting unsafe answers, and on average roughly double the attack success rate.

Same semantics.

Different surface form.

Completely different safety behavior.

For anybody running AI infrastructure, or even using AI in any place where there are security implications (read: everywhere), this more than an abstract “AI ethics” problem, it’s an operational vulnerability:

  • Guardrails are distribution-bound. Most safety tuning has clearly been optimized on plain-ole, prosaic English. Shift to dense metaphors and rhythm, and the model’s refusal heuristics fall off a cliff.

  • It’s cross-domain. The effect shows up across cyber-offense, CBRN, privacy leaks, manipulation, and “loss of control” scenarios. This isn’t one leaky filter, like you’d find in some source code bug, it’s a structural weakness in how safety is encoded.

  • Bigger isn’t always safer. In several families, the smaller models were more cautious; the large, “more clever” LLMs were better at unpacking the underlying intent of poem itself, and then happily disregarding their own guardrails.

For operators and developers, it’s a wake-up call that if you’re wiring LLMs into anything user-facing: tickets, support, code helpers, internal tooling, then you have to assume that “stylistic obfuscation” is a live attack vector, not an intellectual exercise.

The woods are still lovely, dark and deep. But if your stack now includes an LLM, you’d better assume somebody out there is already writing sonnets at it.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 17:30

State Department Sounds Alarm: Mass Migration Is an "Existential Threat To Western Civilization"

Zero Hedge -

State Department Sounds Alarm: Mass Migration Is an "Existential Threat To Western Civilization"

The surge of nationalism across the West is a direct response against unhinged globalist leaders whose suicidal empathy opened the doors to nation-killing mass migration invasion of poorly vetted third-worlders.

Tens of millions have invaded through open borders, and the results have been devastating: violent crime, strained public services, rising terror threats and attacks, the collapse of social order, and erosion of national security. 

Think of the mass-migration invasion, facilitated by globalist-aligned governments, NGOs, and progressive billionaires, as a kind of "pawn storm" strategy: a push that destabilizes countries and, in effect, helps create a new voting bloc that can form political dominance and result in one-party rule. 

Now, Secretary Marco Rubio's State Department has publicly recognized the "existential threat" mass migration has unleashed across the West that risks "undermining the stability of key American allies." 

"Today the State Department instructed U.S. embassies to report on the human rights implications and public safety impacts of mass migration," State's X account wrote in a series of posts on Friday. 

The department continued, "Mass migration is a human rights concern. Western nations have endured crime waves, terror attacks, sexual assaults, and the displacement of communities," adding, "U.S. officials will urge governments to take bold action and defend citizens against the threats posed by mass migration." 

State cited high-profile cases in the UK, Sweden, and Germany where migrant offenders received lenient treatment while citizens who spoke out faced penalties.

Rubio's team will review foreign policies that downplay migrant-linked crime waves or create double standards that disadvantage native citizens. 

Recall that anyone who questioned mass migration during the Biden-Harris regime years was dismissed as a conspiracy theorist, even as the administration ignored the border crisis. Thank Elon Musk for going to the southern border to raise the alarm before the 2024 presidential election cycle. 

The invasion distorted labor and housing markets, fueled crime, disenfranchised native born voters, drained public resources, and undermined national security, all without the consent of the American people. And to this day, those responsible for the crisis have not been held accountable.

Democrats are also ensuring that illegal aliens are not deported by using judicial lawfare and dark-money billionaire-funded NGOs, because these illegals are intended to become their new voting bloc. 

Mass migration is nation-killing. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 16:55

Chicago's Revolving Door Of Doom: 72 Prior Arrests Revealed For Train Torcher

Zero Hedge -

Chicago's Revolving Door Of Doom: 72 Prior Arrests Revealed For Train Torcher

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Fresh court revelations have ripped the scab off Chicago’s festering wound of criminal coddling. The 50-year-old predator accused of dousing a 26-year-old woman with gasoline and igniting her on a Blue Line train this week had racked up at least 72 prior arrests before this horrifying crime.

Lawrence Reed, a lifelong felon whose decades-long rampage should have landed him a life sentence eons ago, was finally ordered detained Friday by federal Judge Laura McNally—following the November 18 attack near Clark and Lake station.

But as his trial looms, the bombshell disclosure of his arrest marathon exposes the Democrat-run city’s bloodthirsty embrace of catch-and-release chaos. Lunatics like Reed aren’t reformed; they’re reloaded, courtesy of Soros-fueled judges and DAs who treat violence as a victimless hobby.

The Monday night atrocity, captured in gut-wrenching CTA surveillance shows Reed—stone-faced and deliberate—pouring accelerant over the unsuspecting commuter before sparking the flames and vanishing into the crowd.

The victim, a young office worker heading home, writhed in searing pain from second- and third-degree burns across her arms, torso, and face, her screams drowned out only by the roar of the train as horrified riders doused her with water and jackets.

Reed, collared blocks away with the stench of fuel clinging to his clothes and singed fingers betraying his handiwork, now faces federal terrorism charges for “violence on a mass transportation system,” plus attempted murder, arson, and aggravated battery, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office criminal complaint.

Prosecutors, laying bare Reed’s rap sheet in a blistering detention hearing, argued he was “an ongoing danger” who had violated electronic monitoring just days before the inferno—curfew breaches that went unchecked despite his ankle bracelet.

“At the time of the attack, Reed was on electronic monitoring after a Cook County judge declined to hold him in jail on an aggravated battery charge,” CBS News reported from the courtroom.

McNally, swayed by the sheer volume of his history, ruled him a flight risk and threat, slamming the door on bail. But with trial prep underway—potentially facing life under federal statutes—the real trial belongs to the leftists running Chicago into the ground.

How did a man arrested 72 times get free time and again?

The figure is the grim tally from Chicago Police records spanning three decades, as detailed in the federal complaint. Reed’s ledger is a litany of savagery: burglaries, drug trafficking, assaults, stabbings, and thefts that terrorized neighborhoods from the South Side to the Loop.

Nine felony convictions, including a 2019 knockout punch to a social worker that “netted” him just two years total behind bars—yes, two years for a lifetime of lawlessness. Most charges were plea-bargained into oblivion or tossed on technicalities, thanks to Cook County’s progressive playbook under DA Kim Foxx, where 85% of violent cases end in slaps rather than sentences.

This wasn’t Reed’s debut; it was his predictable encore. Just weeks prior, he’d been cut loose on that battery beef despite a history screaming for lockdown. “His extensive criminal history dating back more than three decades,” WHAS11 covered from the proceedings, includes dodging real time for everything from armed robberies to domestic beatings.

Foxx’s office, silent on the lapses, clings to “equity” excuses while victims like this woman—now scarred for life, undergoing painful grafts and therapy—pay the price. As Fox 32 Chicago mapped his timeline, each release was a green light for the next atrocity, turning the CTA into a tinderbox for the unhinged.

This train-tragedy isn’t a fluke; it’s the festering symptom of Democrat domains where “reform” means re-victimizing the innocent— a pattern of pyromaniacs and stabbers prowling platforms, sprung loose by soft-on-crime sorcery.

Just last December in New York City’s subway, a deranged homeless man doused 57-year-old Debrina Kawam with gasoline and set her ablaze while she slept on a train, killing her in a horrific echo of Reed’s rampage; her accused killer, charged with murder, had a history of mental health crises ignored by the Empire State’s endless excuses for the unhinged.

Closer to home, on Chicago’s Blue Line two weeks ago, a 27-year-old woman was stabbed in the chest while sitting innocently on a bench at the UIC-Halsted platform near the University of Illinois Chicago—an unprovoked lunge from a backpack-toting maniac.

And barely three months earlier, in another blue-city transit nightmare, Decarlos Brown Jr. fatally knifed Ukrainian refugee Iryna Zarutska on a Charlotte light rail, plunging a pocketknife into her neck in a random fury that left the 32-year-old mother bleeding out. Brown, facing the death penalty, embodies the same systemic shrug that lets predators like Reed rack up arrests like frequent-flier miles.

Echoing Stephen Miller’s October takedown of Gov. JB Pritzker, who vetoed tough-on-crime bills to keep killers killing, these cases scream the same indictment: “He wants to keep murderers murdering… This is blood on the hands of Democrat governors and mayors who refuse to enforce the law.”

Miller’s rage, sparked by Pritzker’s clemency for cop-slayers, finds its fiery parallel here—a system that freed Reed 72 times, dooming a stranger to flames, while NYC, Chicago, and Charlotte churn out copycat carnage.

Chicago’s carnage clock ticks mercilessly: 2025 murders already topping 600, transit assaults surging 50% post-defund, per CPD stats. Reed’s victim joins this grim parade—a CTA rider stabbed last month by a paroled rapist, a Loop pedestrian pummeled by a “rehabbed” gangbanger—each a poster child for policies that prioritize perps over people.

Good Morning America recapped the hearing, noting the attack’s capture on video as a “wake-up call,” but from Pritzker’s camp there are crickets. Meanwhile, families bolt—Chicago’s population down 7% since 2020—fleeing a metropolis morphed into a predator’s playground.

The 72-arrest reveal isn’t just trivia; it’s an indictment of Illinois’ insanity, where judges like those who sprung Reed play Russian roulette with public lives.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 16:20

VTOL Air Taxi With Military Applications Flies On Hybrid Power For First Time

Zero Hedge -

VTOL Air Taxi With Military Applications Flies On Hybrid Power For First Time

A long-range vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) air taxi under development by Joby Aviation has completed its first successful flight using a turbine-electric engine

Lifting off from the company's site in Marina, California, the aircraft pairs a hybrid turbine powertrain with the company's proprietary autonomy software - the SuperPilot autonomous stack - which extends range while increasing payload capacity, according to Joby. 

It includes capabilities such as: 

  • Real-time sensor fusion (radar, LiDAR, vision) and environment perception.

  • Autonomous mission management: planning, adapting to changes (weather/air traffic), re-tasking mid-flight.

  • Remote operations / long-range autonomy: Demonstrated flights over thousands of miles with remote ground-stations.

  • Health monitoring and resilience: Predictive system health modeling, digital-twin, real-time compute platform oriented toward certification.

As far as military applications go, the craft can deploy from forward locations without runway infrastructure.

The hybrid design was announced in partnership with L3Harris Technology - with L3 supplying sensors, effectors, communications, and collaborative autonomy components to tailor the craft for government missions

The companies plan to begin operation demonstrations next year, focusing on tasks such as contested logistics, low-altitude support, and loyal wingman tasks. As NextGenDefense points out, "The effort aligns with US government priorities for resilient, autonomous, and hybrid aircraft, with more than $9 billion requested in the fiscal 2026 budget for next-generation platforms."

"The future battlefield relies on unmanned systems augmenting manned platforms, and our partnership with Joby accelerates missionized VTOL aircraft to directly support defense requirements," said L3Harris' Jason Lambert, president of Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance.

"L3Harris has delivered thousands of missionized aircraft, and our focus is scaling rapidly to bring these commercial VTOL aircraft to the fight."

(h/t Capital.news)

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 15:45

Comer Threatens Contempt Proceedings Against Clintons If They Continue To Ignore Epstein Subpoenas

Zero Hedge -

Comer Threatens Contempt Proceedings Against Clintons If They Continue To Ignore Epstein Subpoenas

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) warned Bill and Hillary Clinton Friday that if they continue to ignore deposition subpoenas regarding their history with Jeffrey Epstein, he will initiate contempt proceedings.

The House Oversight Committee is conducting a review of the federal government’s investigation into convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and his accomplice Ghislaine Maxwell, focused on potential mismanagement of the case, the circumstances surrounding Epstein’s death, his trafficking network, and possible ethics violations by elected officials.

Comer sent a letter to Clinton attorney David Kendall, emphasizing that the Clintons are required to comply with House subpoenas and appear for scheduled in-person depositions.

According to the chairman, Democrats and Republicans on the Oversight Committee approved a motion to issue the subpoenas back in July.

“The Committee has since worked in good faith to schedule in-person depositions, but further delays are unacceptable,” Comer wrote.

“Given their history with Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, any attempt by the Clintons to avoid sitting for a deposition would be in defiance of lawful subpoenas and grounds to initiate contempt of Congress proceedings,” he added.

Comer stated that Bill Clinton’s deposition is scheduled for December 17, 2025, and Hillary Clinton’s deposition is scheduled for December 18, 2025 and asked Kendall to confirm their appearance.

Back in August, Comer subpoenaed the Estate of Jeffrey Epstein for unredacted documents, including cash ledgers, message logs, calendars, and flight logs.

The Committee has released over 65,000 pages of documents to date, including materials from Epstein’s Estate, as well as deposition transcripts from former Attorney General William Barr and former Labor Secretary Alexander Acosta.

The Committee conducted a deposition with Barr on August 18, 2025, and released the transcript the following month. Republicans on the Committee later said Barr “debunked the Democrats’ false claims about President Trump.”

Acosta, former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Florida and former Secretary of the U.S. Department of Labor, appeared voluntarily for a transcribed interview on September 19, 2025. The Republican-led Committee released that interview transcript on October 17, claiming that Acosta “destroyed the Democrats’ Trump-Epstein smear.”

“There was no contact between President Trump and former U.S. Attorney Acosta, and no link between Trump and Epstein in the case,” the Committee stated in a press release.

The Committee accepted “formal written declarations from former FBI Director James Comey and former Attorneys General Alberto Gonzelez, Eric Holder, Loretta Lynch, Jeff Sessions, and Merrick Garland under penalty of prosecution for false statements stating they possess no information about the Epstein or Maxwell cases.”

The Committee also issued a subpoena to former FBI director and special counsel Mr. Mueller, but withdrew it once they learned his health issues precluded him from testifying.

On November 18, 2025, the Committee issued subpoenas to JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank for Epstein’s financial records, asserting that financial institutions may have played a role in facilitating sex trafficking activities.

The subpoena to JPMorgan seeks records that could shed light on suspicious transactions, while the Committee also requested information from U.S. Virgin Islands Attorney General Gordon Rhea regarding Epstein’s connections to local officials, including donations, employment of relatives of the governor, and alleged payments to law enforcement.

The Committee said Friday it hopes to use the results of their Epstein investigation “to inform legislative solutions to improve federal efforts to combat sex trafficking and reform the use of non-prosecution agreements and/or plea agreements in sex-crime investigations.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 15:10

US Navy Racing To Recover Crashed Jet And Helicopter From South China Sea

Zero Hedge -

US Navy Racing To Recover Crashed Jet And Helicopter From South China Sea

The US Navy is working to retrieve an F/A-18 Super Hornet and an MH-60 helicopter from the bottom of the South China Sea—wreckage that analysts say could hand Beijing valuable intelligence if China were to reach it first, according to CNN.

Both aircraft went down within about 30 minutes in late October while operating from the USS Nimitz. All personnel were rescued, and while the Navy has not identified a cause, former President Donald Trump suggested soon afterward that “contaminated fuel” may be responsible.

The Navy confirmed Friday that a salvage vessel is already on-site. “USNS SALVOR (T-ARS 52), a Safeguard-class salvage ship operated by Military Sealift Command, is on-scene conducting operations in support of the recovery efforts,” said Cmdr. Matthew Comer of the 7th Fleet. The Salvor can lift up to 300 tons—far more than the weight of either aircraft.

CNN writes that experts warn that both wrecks contain technology China would like to examine. Carl Schuster, former director of operations at US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, said, “Acquiring an air frame and surviving systems will … provide valuable insights into its technological strengths and how to defeat it tactically.”

He noted that Beijing has never had access to a crashed F/A-18; recovering one could help China refine its carrier-based J-15T jets. The MH-60’s anti-submarine warfare systems could also offer insights to a PLA Navy that, Schuster said, is urgently trying to modernize: “So, recovering that helicopter should enjoy a high priority.”

It’s unclear whether China is attempting to locate the wrecks. Still, geography favors Beijing. As Schuster put it, “If China makes it a race, it enjoys homefield advantage … and can be expected to impede our recovery efforts” if it chooses.

The crashes occurred in waters Beijing claims almost entirely as its own, rejecting an international tribunal ruling to the contrary. China’s Foreign Ministry said it could offer humanitarian help but also criticized Washington’s regional presence. Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said the incidents happened during “US military exercises” and argued, “The US has been flexing muscles by frequently sending military vessels and aircraft to the South China Sea. This is the root cause of security issues at sea and disruption to regional peace and stability.”

The US last mounted a similar recovery in 2022, when a lost F-35 was lifted from 12,400 feet. With decades of Chinese military expansion in the region and heavy strategic competition, the race for this wreckage carries stakes well beyond hardware.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 14:35

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

Calculated Risk -

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Vance Blasts Critics Of Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan As "Living In A Fantasy Land"

Zero Hedge -

Vance Blasts Critics Of Trump's Ukraine Peace Plan As "Living In A Fantasy Land"

As expected, President Trump's 28-point peace plan has quickly seen plenty of pushback in Europe, given it is the first ever such US proposal to focus on Ukraine giving up land. Specifically Crimea, and most of Luhansk and Donetsk would be placed under "de facto" Russian control.

While Moscow would be made to direct $100 billion in frozen assets to Ukrainian reconstruction, sanctions on Russia would be dropped and it would be welcomed back into the global economy. But hawks want to see Russia 'punished' and are pressing to give Ukraine military support for as long as it takes to push Russian forces out of the east. 

Via BBC

Vice President J.D. Vance is calling on these hawks to come back to reality. In a social media post he began by outlining that the plan contains the following elements for a successful peace agreement: "1) Stop the killing while preserving Ukrainian sovereignty. 2) Be acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine. 3) Maximize the chances the war doesn’t restart."

"Every criticism of the peace framework the administration is working on either misunderstands the framework or misstates some critical reality on the ground," he continued on X.

He then called out fanatical anti-Russia hawks for living in fantasy land...

“There is a fantasy that if we just give more money, more weapons, or more sanctions, victory is at hand,” the vice president continued. “Peace won’t be made by failed diplomats or politicians living in a fantasy land. It might be made by smart people living in the real world.”

The sharp rebuke to some European leaders as well as critics in the United States came just ahead of expected talks in Geneva on Sunday.

Axios is reporting the talks to be held on Sunday, with the Europeans and Ukrainians will be led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and will include White House envoy Steve Witkoff and Army Secretary Dan Driscoll.

Driscoll was in Kiev as the first to sit down with President Zelensky and pitch it. Zelensky's response was to describe a heavy situation where Ukraine may have to either keep its dignity or risk losing an important ally. The US is calling for a deadline to sign the deal of next Thursday, or Thanksgiving Day in the United States.

A US official has told Axios, "We're continuing to work with the Ukrainians to make this the best deal for them. We can't speak to ... their position, but the deal has — and always has been — a collaboration between the U.S., Ukrainians and the Russians."

Zelensky himself spoke truth back March 2022: "There are those in the West who don't mind a long war because it would mean exhausting Russia, even if this means the demise of Ukraine & comes at the cost of Ukrainian lives."

And another anonymous source said, "The talks in Geneva show how much the Trump administration is engaging with all parties on the peace plan for Ukraine and the doubters claiming otherwise are flat out wrong."

President Trump appears ready to 'cut off' intelligence-sharing and weapons for Ukraine, saying Saturday that "Zelensky can keep fighting his heart out if he rejects the plan."

Meanwhile EU leaders preparing for a fight with the Trump White House over Ukraine's future path...

Trump's message to Europe, and the skeptics and critics of the plan on Saturday: "I would like to get to peace... We're trying to get it ended. One way or the other, we have to get it ended," he said from the White House lawn.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 13:25

Lawmakers Want To Block US Purchases Of Chinese Chipmaking Equipment

Zero Hedge -

Lawmakers Want To Block US Purchases Of Chinese Chipmaking Equipment

Authored by Catherine Yang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A bipartisan group of lawmakers introduced the Chip EQUIP Act on Nov. 20, with the goal of prohibiting American companies from buying Chinese chipmaking equipment.

Technicians work on chip processing equipment at a semiconductor manufacturing plant in Suqian, in eastern China's Jiangsu province on Oct. 20, 2025. AFP Photo

Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.), ranking member of the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, and Rep. Jay Obernolte (R-Calif.), chair of the Research and Technology Subcommittee, introduced the bill in the House. It was co-sponsored by Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), Greg Landsman (D-Ohio), and Erin Houchin (R-Ind.).

Sens. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) are expected to introduce the bill in the Senate in early December.

The Chips EQUIP (Equipment Quality, Usefulness, and Integrity Protection) Act would prohibit companies that received CHIPS Act funding from buying specialized semiconductor manufacturing equipment from companies owned or controlled by the Chinese communist regime.

Lofgren stated that the CHIPS Act was meant to re-shore semiconductor manufacturing and that it was “common sense” to make sure it doesn’t support foreign adversaries.

We must continue to put American manufacturing first and strengthen our supply chains to remain ahead of our adversaries, like China,” she said.

Obernolte said it was a also a matter of national security, and that tools used in domestic chipmaking should “meet the highest standards of reliability and integrity, reinforcing a resilient supply chain.”

Chinese companies that produce semiconductor manufacturing equipment comprise a minority of the global market, and primarily serve Chinese customers. Some of the biggest companies are Naura and Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc (AMEC).

Companies in the United States, the Netherlands, and Japan produce most of the specialized equipment used in semiconductor manufacturing. In fact, they also supply Chinese companies with much of their chipmaking equipment.

According to a congressional report released last month Chinese companies purchased $38 billion worth of such specialized equipment last year, and did so legally despite the multilayered U.S. export controls meant to block China from accessing advanced semiconductor related technology.

China is dependent on foreign tools and technologies to further its quest of building out a self-reliant semiconductor supply chain, and has resorted to smuggling and other illegal activity in a few high profile cases to acquire the AI chips otherwise banned to the Chinese market.

Lawmakers have also long warned that various loopholes allow Chinese companies, including those with close ties to the Chinese military, to gain access to the very technology the United States wants to restrict in order to slow Beijing’s military buildup.

The Trump administration began taking steps this year to close some of these loopholes, but the measures have been paused after the recent U.S.-China bilateral meeting.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 12:50

Brazilian Police Make 'Preventative Arrest' Of Jair Bolsonaro, Fearing He'll Flee

Zero Hedge -

Brazilian Police Make 'Preventative Arrest' Of Jair Bolsonaro, Fearing He'll Flee

The plot thickens for the man once called the "Brazilian Donald Trump" as former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was detained on Saturday at his residence in Brazil's capital to prevent a possible "attempted escape" - police and court authorities have said.

He has been on house arrest, and the 70-year old politician is just days away from starting a stiff 27-year prison sentence - though appeals are expected - but he's now been taken to the headquarters of the federal police in Brasilia. What's being called a 'preventative arrest' warrant was reportedly requested by the police themselves and authorized by the Supreme Court, after which officers came to Bolsonaro's home to arrest him.

via Reuters

Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes has claimed that Bolsonaro's ankle monitor, which he has worn since mid-July, was tampered with or violated early Saturday morning.

"That information shows the intent of the convict to break the ankle monitoring to assure his escape is successful, which would be made easier by the confusion that would be caused by a demonstration organized by his son," the justice, who oversaw the case, said.

Further, "He said there was a chance of Bolsonaro fleeing to embassies in his neighborhood to request political asylum," according to the Associated Press. "The Supreme Court justice also mentioned other defendants in the coup case and political allies of the former president leaving Brazil to avoid jail."

Given the former Brazilian leader's chummy friendship with President Trump, who has frequently weighed in strongly on Bolsonaro's behalf and urged his release, his political opponents have feared he could seek the safety of the US once again.

Bolsonaro's lawyers starting Monday will present their case to appeal the arrest and dismiss the allegations he was trying to escape.

CNN has described that his political opponents have also feared that mass protests in support of Bolsonaro could be whipped up around his residence and used as a means of escape. Citing his son, the report says:

Flávio Bolsonaro described the vigil, initially planned for Saturday evening local time, as an opportunity to pray for his father following recent reports of ill health and “for the return of democracy in our country.”

“Are you going to fight for your country or just watch everything on your phone on your couch at home?” he asked his followers in a social media video.

Brazil’s Supreme Court said on Saturday that it had received information about the “summoning of supporters” to the vigil which indicated a “high possibility of an attempted escape.”

The gathering could “reach a large scale” and last for several says, resulting in “unpredictable effects, developments, and consequences,” the court said.

Bolsonaro has already been barred from running in future elections, and a lengthy appeals process which is still expected could push the proceedings closer to the 2026 presidential campaign - and all the while Bolsonaro has insisted he will be a candidate.

The Trump White House has chaffed at him being placed under house arrest, and has repeatedly publicly denounced the Lula government for a state 'witch hunt'.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 12:15

How Andrew Jackson Freed America From Central Bank Control... And Why It Matters Now

Zero Hedge -

How Andrew Jackson Freed America From Central Bank Control... And Why It Matters Now

Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,

It’s hard to believe the United States government was ever debt-free.

But it happened once—in 1835—thanks to President Andrew Jackson. He was the first and only president to pay off the national debt completely.

One biographer says the former president viewed debt as a “moral failing,” a sort of “black magic.”

When he became president, Jackson was determined to rid the US of its national debt. After all, debt enslaves you to your creditors.

Jackson knew that being debt-free was essential to independence. This outlook resonated with many Americans back then.

With that in mind, Jackson attacked the institutions and powerful people who promoted and enabled the federal debt. This included the banking elites and the Second Bank of the United States, the country’s central bank at the time and precursor to today’s insidious Federal Reserve system.

While campaigning against the evils of national debt and central banking, Jackson miraculously survived an assassination attempt when an assassin’s two pistols both misfired. Shadowy interests tied to the central bank were almost certainly behind the effort.

However, Jackson survived and went on to “End the Fed” of his days. He successfully bested the central bank—and the powerful interests behind it—and shut down the Second Bank of the United States.

He also repaid the federal debt in full, which was no easy task.

Jackson couldn’t squeeze the American people with a federal income tax to repay the debt. It didn’t exist at the time and would have been unconstitutional.

He also couldn’t simply print currency to pay off the debt. Perpetuating such an insane fraud—which the Fed does on a massive scale today—likely never entered his mind.

Instead, Jackson had to rely on tax revenue from other sources, mainly import tariffs and excise taxes, to pay down the debt. He also drastically cut federal spending and frequently vetoed spending bills.

Jackson’s determination worked. By January 1835, the US was debt-free for the first time.

Unfortunately, it didn’t last much more than a year. After that, the US would never again be debt-free—not even close.

Revenge of the Central Bankers

After Jackson succeeded in ending the Second Bank of the United States, anything associated with a central bank became deeply unpopular with the American public. So, central bank advocates tried a new branding strategy.

Rather than call their new central bank the “Third Bank of the United States,” they went for a vague and boring name. They called it “the Federal Reserve” and managed to hide it from the average person in plain sight. As a result, over 100 years since its founding, most Americans have no idea what the Federal Reserve is or what it actually does.

Ironically, Jackson’s face has been on the $20 “Federal Reserve Note” since 1928. So in a sense, this symbolic move is central banking advocates giving the middle finger to one of their most steadfast opponents.

After all, the Fed is really the “Third Bank of the United States.” No doubt, Jackson would have been disturbed at having his face on its fake confetti money.

In any case, most Americans today have no idea who Jackson is, what he did, or why he did it.

To the extent he is ever mentioned, the media, academia, and the rest of the establishment unjustly besmirch him as—you guessed it—a “racist.”

That’s exactly what the Deep State—the permanently entrenched bureaucracy—wants. It doesn’t want the average citizen to understand why Jackson shut down the central bank and (temporarily) freed Americans from national debt bondage. Doing the same thing today would be a mortal threat to their power.

This is one of the reasons the establishment will try in the coming years to replace Jackson on the $20 bill with the more politically-correct Harriet Tubman… pushing Jackson further down the memory hole.

Trillions and Trillions

You often hear the media, politicians, and financial analysts casually toss around the word “trillion” without appreciating what it means.

A trillion is a massive, almost unfathomable number.

The human brain has trouble understanding something so huge. So let me try to put it into perspective.

Suppose you had a job that paid you $1 per second, or $3,600 per hour.

That amounts to $86,400 per day and about $32 million per year.

With that job, it would take you 31.5 years to earn a billion dollars.

With that job, it would take you over 31,688 YEARS to earn a trillion dollars.

So that’s how enormous a trillion is.

When politicians carelessly spend and print money measured in the trillions, you are in dangerous territory.

And that is precisely what the Federal Reserve and the central banking system has enabled the US government to do.

It took 146 years after Jackson fully paid off the debt in 1835—or until 1981—for the US government to rack up its first trillion in debt. The second trillion only took four years. After that, the next trillions came in increasingly shorter intervals.

Today, Congress has normalized multi-trillion dollar federal spending deficits. It’s politically impossible to even slow the federal spending growth rate, let alone cut it.

As a result, the US federal debt has gone parabolic.

The US federal government has the largest debt in the history of the world. And it’s continuing to grow at a rapid, unstoppable pace.

The debt will keep piling up as the US government continues to pay for political promises regardless of who sits in the White House. It’s virtually inevitable.

The federal debt also represents an outrageous crime inflicted on the next generation. They are the ones who will be stuck with this massive unpaid bill from today’s spending, and it will turn them into indentured serfs.

It’s doubtful Congress considers this even for a second. They are always eager to send billions to faraway foreign lands or the latest boondoggle.

Of course, this is not a groundbreaking revelation. People like Ron Paul have warned Americans about the dangers of the federal debt for a long time.

It’s just that nobody has heeded these warnings. And no one has taken serious political action to address the problem. Nor is anyone likely to.

The interest expense on the federal debt is now larger than defense spending and is about to exceed Social Security to become the BIGGEST expenditure in the federal budget. And it won’t stop there.

In short, the US government is approaching the financial endgame and can no longer disguise its bankruptcy.

If we step back and zoom out, the Big Picture is clear.

We are likely on the cusp of a historic shift… and what’s coming next could change everything.

That’s precisely why I just released an urgent report on where this is all headed and what you can do about it… including three strategies everyone needs today. Click here to download the PDF it now.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 11:40

NATO Countries Blame Russia As Mystery Drones Keep Buzzing Key European Military Installations

Zero Hedge -

NATO Countries Blame Russia As Mystery Drones Keep Buzzing Key European Military Installations

A string of unexplained drone incursions over military, industrial and transportation hubs across Europe is raising fresh concerns about the vulnerability of NATO territory to covert surveillance and sabotage.

A sign prohibiting drones is seen at the Munich Airport on Friday, Oct. 3, 2025. (Enrique Kaczor/dpa via AP)

In the French border town of Mulhouse, authorities are probing a Nov. 11 incident in which a police officer reported a drone hovering above a police station courtyard shortly before midnight. Moments later, the aircraft maneuvered over a nearby rail depot and filmed a military convoy transporting Leclerc main battle tanks before disappearing. Investigators have yet to track down the device or its operator.

Local prosecutors said there is “no evidence to suggest whether this was a deliberate flight…or simply an accidental overflight.” But the episode followed closely on the heels of a far more targeted intrusion at the Eurenco plant in Bergerac, where defense officials say drones twice breached the airspace above one of Europe’s most sensitive ammunition and explosives facilities. The plant supplies propellants used in the artillery shells shipped to Ukraine.

French investigators called those flights “deliberate” and “clearly targeted,” intensifying fears that unmanned aircraft are scouting the continent’s military infrastructure and industrial supply lines, the Washington Times reports.

A Continent-Wide Pattern Emerges

The French incidents are part of a broader uptick in mysterious drone activity. German officials have logged repeated breaches over Ramstein Air Base, Rheinmetall arms factories and energy infrastructure. And of course, the chief suspect in all of this among Western sources is Russia - who western analysts warn may be waging a “hybrid” campaign.

Denmark faced its own wave of disruptions starting Sept. 22, when large drones forced Copenhagen’s airport to shut down for hours. Within days, similar UAVs appeared over other strategic points, including three regional airports and Skrydstrup air base, home to Denmark’s F-16 fleet and incoming F-35s. Media reports described drones circling the base for hours without interception, prompting political fallout over the failure to neutralize small off-the-shelf aircraft.

Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Denmark had “been the victim of hybrid attacks” and warned that such flights “could multiply.” The country’s Defense Intelligence Service later declared that “Russia is conducting hybrid warfare against Denmark and the broader West,” citing drone incursions and GPS jamming.

Norwegian authorities, meanwhile, have detained several Russian nationals at airports and border posts for flying drones or possessing drone footage, adding to suspicions that some activity is linked to Russian intelligence.

Germany has faced similar activity. In December, security services confirmed sightings of “mystery drones” over the U.S. Air Force’s Ramstein hub for Ukraine operations and over Rheinmetall facilities. Officials have not named suspects, but the flights add to concerns about Russian espionage and sabotage since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. By October, Germany had recorded 172 drone-related air-traffic disruptions this year, prompting draft legislation to empower police to shoot down dangerous drones and establish a federal drone-defense center by mid-December.

Belgium’s Nuclear-Adjoining Base Exposed

Belgium has experienced some of the most alarming events. Over two weekends in late October and early November, multiple drones were spotted near Kleine Brogel air base, widely believed to store U.S. tactical nuclear weapons. Defense Minister Theo Francken labeled the pattern a “spying operation,” saying small drones appeared to probe security radio frequencies before larger systems attempted to “destabilize” the area while evading jamming systems.

They come to spy, to see where the F-16s are, where the ammunition is, and other highly strategic information,” Francken said.

Around the same time, unidentified drones forced temporary closures at Brussels and Liege airports, disrupting dozens of flights and stranding passengers.

Belgium has since accelerated national air-security plans, established new surveillance measures and convened its National Security Council. With NATO and EU headquarters located in Brussels, the government considers the incidents a top-tier security concern.

Across the continent, the pattern is consistent: small, commercially available drones operating at night or in poor visibility, repeatedly probing the seams of NATO’s defenses around air bases, logistics corridors, energy infrastructure and even nuclear-adjacent sites.

For now, investigators in multiple countries are scrambling to match technology, tactics and flight signatures across borders. The growing consensus: Europe’s drone problem is no longer sporadic. It is systemic - and increasingly strategic.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 08:45

Schedule for Week of November 23, 2025

Calculated Risk -

Happy Thanksgiving!
Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released.  Items listed in RED have not been announced and will likely not be released this week.
The key reports this week include the advance estimate of Q3 GDP, September New Home Sales and Retail Sales.

Other key indicators include the September Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, and September Personal Income & Outlays (and PCE).


----- Monday, November 24th -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

----- Tuesday, November 25th -----
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. 

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September.

This graph shows graph shows the Year over year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The National index was up 1.5% YoY in August and is expected to increase about the same in September.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for September. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The Conforming loan limits for next year will also be announced.

Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released.  

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for October.

----- Wednesday, November 26th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2025.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November. 

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

10:00 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, November 27th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.

----- Friday, November 28th -----
The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.

EU-Digital Summit Exposes Europe's Innovation Crisis

Zero Hedge -

EU-Digital Summit Exposes Europe's Innovation Crisis

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

It was summit season again in Berlin. After crisis meetings with the automotive and steel industries, attention on Tuesday turned to the next trouble spot: the digital economy. So far, EU regulators have literally strangled it.

Grand reception at Berlin’s EUREF campus: Around 900 participants from politics, business, and science across Europe traveled to the capital for the Digital Summit. Among the prominent speakers: Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron, both currently facing stiff political headwinds at home.

EU Europe has now officially entered crisis mode on the political level as well. The sheer number of economic summits reflects this and bodes ill for the coming years. Looking at the digital economy, which has initiated the next major economic revolution, one must conclude: the panic mode in Brussels, Paris, and Berlin is justified.

The technological gap between the Eurozone economy and competitors in the U.S. and China appears, at present, unbridgeable. Revolution? Not in sight.

Lifeless Capital Market

A glance at the raw numbers provides a clear sense of the technological hiatus: In the U.S., over $340 billion is being invested in artificial intelligence this year, following $244 billion in 2024. In China, the private sector mobilizes roughly $100 billion to upgrade digital processes.

The EU, even when generously including the U.K., reaches barely €25 billion—a negligible share on a global scale.

Amazon alone invests roughly $118 billion, almost five times the capital of the entire EU economy, which can only muster its small contribution through roughly 50% public funding. Politically embarrassing, economically disastrous.

Spiritless Summit

The dilemma of European policy emerged clearly from the speeches in Berlin. From the start, the regulatory framework was far too tight, stifling innovation, leaving the digital economy dependent—primarily on American giants like Amazon, Google, or Microsoft. SAP software? Often comes from the U.S.!

A central demand of the summit was therefore to reduce this dependency on powerful overseas competitors.

The European Commission announced on summit day that over the next twelve months, it would review how stricter regulation could rein in allegedly anti-competitive practices by cloud providers like Microsoft Azure and Amazon Web Services. A tough struggle lies ahead to confront the U.S. government, which will undoubtedly push back forcefully.

Meanwhile, Chancellor Merz repeated his call for European digital sovereignty and warned against reliance on American software. It is about actively shaping the digital future, he reiterated—initiating a catch-up process to close the gap with the competition.

State Intervention

European politicians draw the familiar conclusion: public funding. It already accounts for roughly 40% of total AI volume in Europe and will increasingly target the training and retention of European IT talent.

It should also help build an independent digital infrastructure, particularly in cloud services and cybersecurity, another Achilles’ heel of the European economy.

The trade association Bitkom calls for a sweeping simplification of EU digital laws and a drastic reduction of reporting obligations. The GDPR has been a costly and senseless flop, like other elements of Brussels overregulation. AI Act and Data Act—everything must be reviewed, streamlined, or scrapped.

Digital Tax as Ultima Ratio?

In its current state, the EU digital economy is simply unable to scale or keep pace with international competitors. Another discussion point: a digital tax on ad revenues of global players, especially U.S. firms. Recently, Culture Minister Wolfram Weimar introduced the idea polemically.

But what would that actually change? In Europe, the state blocks innovation. Too much capital flows through public channels to allow a functioning venture capital market to emerge capable of funding these innovations.

Summit participants likely realized the EU faces a trade-off: maximum data protection hinders industry growth. The EU will need to liberalize and return data control to users. On Wednesday, this issue will be central in a Brussels parliamentary debate.

Energy and Innovation Culture

The economy of the future is data-driven, dependent on stable energy infrastructure and highly competitive startups surrounding technological hubs. None of this exists in Germany today. Result: international investors are largely uninterested in the location.

Considering the size of the European single market, remaining capital strength, and robust academic structure, it is a political feat to have strangled the digital economy so completely. Brussels built the regulatory framework long before a significant digital economy existed. When it comes to controlling and manipulating the free market, Brussels acts efficiently—and destructively.

Commission Retreat Needed

Breaking out of this regulatory trap and stimulating digital entrepreneurship would require a radical break from poor practices: ending rules like the AI Act or GDPR, halting ongoing interventions via the Digital Services Act (DSA) and Digital Markets Act (DMA), which regulate Europe’s digital market in minute detail.

Yet the summit showed little insight into the self-created problem. Brussels views growing criticism of the DSA and DMA as an attack on its power. Digital regulation, like climate policy, must be seen in the context of the ideological reshaping of the Euro-economy. Brussels is the command center of this fatal process. Pressure on the regulator grows with the deepening recession.

Market barriers must fall, entrepreneurship must be freer, fiscal burdens reduced, and the state must retreat from dominating the capital market. Cutting the Gordian knot of digital regulation through radical liberalization to allow autonomous European ecosystems to grow sounded, at the Berlin summit, like a fable.

Collision of Philosophies

Rarely have U.S. and European political philosophies and economic paradigms collided so violently as in the digital economy. Disputes over Brussels’ censorship, the DSA, and planned chat monitoring have caused real tensions, escalating since U.S. VP J.D. Vance criticized European censorship at the Munich Security Conference in February.

The fight for civil rights, freedom of speech, and property rights is clearly taking place in the digital space: freedom vs. surveillance, self-responsibility vs. nanny state—U.S. vs. EU? Broadly, one could interpret it that way. But the U.S. will also have to address the market power of its own digital oligopolies and whether new competitors can access the market freely—or whether lobbying, like in Brussels, shields Amazon & Co. from competition.

Digital Risk Space

For the European regulator, the digital space is above all a narrative risk: an unbounded, hard-to-discipline public space that fuels opposition rather than suppressing it.

Recent attacks by German politicians on U.S. platforms like X and Meta reflect growing awareness—and the loss of control in conflict areas critical to EU politics and ideology: climate policy, the Ukraine conflict, and the deepening economic crisis, largely underreported in state-affiliated media.

The risk of a critical opposition forming in opaque, decentralized, polemical, and highly visible ways remains ever-present.

Error and Control

In the debate on the digital future of the Eurozone economy, the specter of the digital euro—and the question of individual sovereignty in the digital space—looms.

Even attempting to integrate this technology as a form of centralized state dominance in money and capital markets shows that Brussels does not understand digital technology as a matter of decentralized competition, which thrives under minimal state regulation.

With the Genius Act and U.S. stablecoin integration into banking—a quasi-alternative money market—Washington pushes credit creation deeper into the private sector’s responsibility.

European Anachronism

Everything points to the synchronized merging of decentralized money creation and technological AI applications, which is why the EU’s attempt to centralize and tightly regulate these elements is doomed.

The Digital Summit confirmed fears: European policy is intellectually and bureaucratically trapped in a model where public funding, detailed regulation, labor norms, and heavily censored public discourse form the ideological blueprint.

This cannot and will not end well if technological progress pushes toward freedom.

* * *

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/22/2025 - 08:10

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

The Gizmo Empire: How a flair for infomercials, TikTok and an endless stream of whiz-bang home appliances turned SharkNinja into a $6 billion behemoth. (Bloomberg free)

AI 101: Economy: Five ways AI is driving growth. Artificial Intelligence is already a spark, accelerator and source of fuel for global economic growth. Even before it significantly moves the needle on productivity, there are five ways that AI is beginning to boost the economy – at least for now. (Deutsche Bank Securities)

The DoorDash Problem: How AI browsers are a huge threat to Amazon: Amazon’s lawsuit against Perplexity has blown the doors open on the great AI browser fight. (The Verge)

The Electric 911 Porsche Never Built: How One Tired 911, and One Austin Skunkworks Rewired an Icon (Everyday Driven)

Who Was the Foodie? What it would mean to take taste seriously again. The problem isn’t just about the domination of food culture by internet aesthetics. Instead, it’s about the way food enthusiasts use those aesthetics to curate away complexity and discomfort, leaving food systems unchallenged and food culture shallow. (Yale Review) see also ‘The English person with a Chinese stomach’: how Fuchsia Dunlop became a Sichuan food hero: The author has been explaining Sichuan cuisine to westerners for decades. But ‘Fu Xia’, as she’s known, has had a profound effect on food lovers in China, too. (The Guardian)

Med Spa Nation: There are almost as many med spas as McDonald’s in the US, ready to serve you a smoother forehead, glowier skin, and fuller lips. Are you safe placing an order? (Allure)

‘I awoke at ½ past 7’ Our cursed age of self-monitoring and optimisation didn’t start with big tech: as so often, the Victorians are to blame  (Aeon)

The Blue Book Burglar: High-Stakes Heists and Artistic: The Social Register was a who’s who of America’s rich and powerful—the heirs of robber barons, scions of political dynasties, and descendants of Mayflower passengers. It was also the perfect hit list for the country’s hardest-working art thief. (Atavist)

How do the pros get someone to leave a cult? Manipulate them into thinking it was their idea.  Two of the world’s leading cult interventionists live (with their parrot) in Philadelphia. They explain the art of coaxing people out of the most pernicious groups in the world. (The Guardian)

The Biggest Failure in a Century of Sneakers: The entirely avoidable disaster that was Steph Curry and Under Armour. (Slate)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Morgan Housel, whose new book, “The Art of Spending Money, Simple Choices for a Richer Life” was just published. His first book, “The Psychology of Money” sold over 10 million copies.

 

Fox News Poll: Voters say White House is doing more harm than good on economy

Source: Fox News

 

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