Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 6 December

he U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 6 December. ...

30 November through 6 December 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 57.2% (-3.2%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$160.11 (-0.5%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$91.57 (-3.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking well behind last year but is close to the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.
On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.



 

 

At The Money: Year-End Tax Planning Moves with Bill Artzerounian, RWM (December 11, 2025)

There is still time to make some smart moves to reduce your 2025 taxes. You have to be proactive to take advantage of the latest changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. But you better hurry – there is less than three weeks left in the year!

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Bill Artzerounian is Director of Tax Services at Ritholtz Wealth Management, where he focuses on the very specific steps investors can take to better manage their taxes.

For more info, see:

Personal Bio

LinkedIn

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

 

Intro: Tell me, what in the hell we’re paying taxes for? Well, what if we all stopped paying taxes?
Now, what if we all stopped paying taxes? Stopped paying taxes, y’all

 

It’s that time of year. You still have Christmas gifts to buy, but you should be aware that April 15th is just around the corner. Consider this your nudge that you have less than three weeks to make whatever year-end tax moves you’re planning for the calendar year 2025.

I’m Barry Ritholtz and on today’s edition of At the Money, we are going to discuss the moves investors should be thinking about in order to reduce their 2025 taxes.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your money, let’s bring in Bill Artzerounian, and full disclosure, Artzerounian is the director of Tax Services at Ritholtz Wealth Management, and we’ve been working with him for just about five years.

So, Bill, let’s start with a simple overview. You’ve said before, tax advice is financial advice.

I wanna unpack that. How should investors be thinking about the role of tax planning in their overall wealth strategy, especially here in December?

Bill Artzerounian: Let’s just think about a financial plan for a second. What part of a financial plan does not touch on taxes? I mean, think about just basic and cash flow planning.

Taxes for our investors are often the largest expense in their annual budget. Um, it’s mortgage and taxes. Those are the largest costs. Life insurance is thinking about a tax free inheritance for the next generation or for your heirs. Estate planning is all about taxes. If there was no estate tax, we wouldn’t really have to think about estate planning.

And then basic portfolio management is, uh, is, is purely, you know, not purely tax centric, but our investors are thinking about tax all the time. Our clients would rather save. A thousand dollars on taxes that make six figures in a trading day. Uh, so it’s all connected and the end of the year is like the report card.

Tax planning should be happening proactively for 12 months, but we don’t even stop there. We’re not thinking about taxes as a current year item or even a lifetime item. We’re thinking about this generationally. We’re thinking about how can we set up the next generation of client children, client grandchildren for tax success.

Barry Ritholtz: We have a few weeks left in the year. What are the big boxes that you think investors should be checking, and what important items do they ignore? What are the big mistakes people make?

Bill Artzerounian: I think one of the misunderstandings is on tax deferral rather than tax avoidance. Many strategies can avoid tax or can defer taxes, but that bill will come due at some point.

You know, think about even just a 401k, a pre-tax contribution. You’re gonna recognize that income at some point. Things like. Accelerated depreciation. We’ll come back to bite you on the recapture when you sell the asset. Opportunity zones are a tax deferral mechanism. These are all very useful because time value of money says that a tax deduction today, is worth more than a tax deduction in the future. But eventually, there’s gonna be a tax hit. I think that’s a common misunderstanding.

A few other mistakes is on capital gain, timing. You know, we see, we see clients not really. Understand or consider the timing of when they recognize gains. When we, when we onboard folks, we’re often pushing gains from the fourth quarter of, say, 2025 into the first quarter of 2026, because that gives us a full 12 months to tax loss harvest and create losses to offset any capital gains.

The flip side of that, of course, even a small movement in a stock price can cost more than a tax bill just to sell it. So it, you have to be pretty comfortable holding the position for a couple weeks or even a couple months.

And then the last, the last mistake is. Misunderstanding just basic payment obligations.

There are safe harbors to avoid, uh, estimated tax penalties. Um, but on the flip side of that is if you pay too much, there’s opportunity cost. If you have a big refund in April, that means you paid a little bit too much and that money could have been better put to use.

Barry Ritholtz: Bloomberg has a fairly sophisticated audience of, of high earning professionals. What are the three top moves you see for folks like that?

They have a portfolio, they have a pretty decent income, and they can expect to continue that for the foreseeable future.

Bill Artzerounian: Let’s start with charitable giving. We’ll talk about it more throughout the show, but it’s often the most accessible lever to pull for tax savings.

The caveat is that you need to be conscious of where your total deductions fall. We see some clients give a certain amount of charitable gifts and they don’t even itemize their deductions. So from a federal tax standpoint, maybe they gave away $10K, but they’re still taking that standard deduction. They’re not benefiting from that charitable gift. So that’s where bunching strategies and some other strategies with donor-advised funds can come into play.

Number two is on the equity compensation. For folks compensated through their company stock, the timing of the income can often be, be flexible. Think about stock options, uh, company stock options. We should be asking the question, how much can we recognize in stock option income before the end of the year, before we bump up against the next federal or state tax bracket? How much, if these are incentive stock options, how much can we recognize without paying AMT alternative minimum tax? These are questions we should all be asking, if we’re paid through equity or if we have clients that are paid through equity.

And the last one is for small business owners. There’s, there’s a whole lot on the small business side of this. I’m focused a lot on qualified business income, which is a 20% deduction for pass-through income.

But there are limitations and those limitations can be on. Based on how much you pay your employees or yourself in a wage. If you don’t meet a certain wage number that QBI benefit could be significantly reduced or even reduced down to zero if you’re, if you’re really screwing this up.

On the small business side, we should be looking at are we prepared to maximize retirement contributions? The Max 401k is, is $70,000 this year, between employer and employee contributions. And so you have to be ready to have that cash available to fund those contributions. Say you’re a mom and pop shop, two owners, zero employees, maybe you’re structured as an S-corp. You’re gonna have to come up with some cash to meet the the 401k obligations, either before the end of the year or before the tax filing.

Barry Ritholtz: I’m glad you brought up tax Advantage accounts like 401Ks. There always seems to be a last-minute frenzy to maximize not only 401Ks, but IRAs, health saving accounts 529s. How have the rules changed around credits and, and ceilings for this year and for 2026?

Bill Artzerounian: At least once a year with our with our clients, we’re running through the quote unquote basics of all of these contributions.

Are you on track to hit each of these with a 401k? We just talked about it a little bit. Um, but there’s a 70 k limit. Now, if you’re a W2 employee and you don’t own the company, you’re, you’re gonna make employee contributions. Maybe there’s a mega backdoor Roth option in there for you. We talk to folks all the time.

Who have this eligible or eligible in their plan, but they don’t even know about it. Nobody’s talking to them about this when they join the company. And that Mega Backdoor Roth allows you to put after-tax dollars into the 401k, convert it to Roth and have a nice Roth tax-free bucket growing alongside the pre-tax contributions that you already made.

IRAs don’t come up a lot in our world for a few reasons. Number one is most of our clients are employed with a retirement plan through their employer. And if that’s the case, deductible, IRA contributions may be limited. However, there is a backdoor option in the IRA if you don’t have any pre-tax money in any IRAs you can make after tax contributions, and again, convert to Roth in the IRA just as well as you can in the 401k.

And then the HSA I love; tax nerds love HSAs. You need to be on a high-deductible plan, which isn’t for everybody. Uh, my colleague, bill Sweet and I, we ran an analysis on high deductible plans and we found that there’s a pretty.

There’s a pretty attractive break even on high deductible plans because the premiums are lower and the long-term benefit of investing deducting HSA contributions and treating those as another retirement vehicle. Again, those are like Roths where they’re tax free. Those, those can compound very, very nicely.

Where. Maybe you retire early and let’s say you retire 60 instead of 65, you have a five year gap where you need to cover probably significant healthcare premiums that HSA can be used in that case. And it’s a nice tax-free bucket to have.

Barry Ritholtz: What do the ceilings look like on all these tax advantage accounts for 2026? How has the recent legislation changed the max people can kick into those?

Bill Artzerounian: The big change in 2026 is that Roth, uh, catch up contributions for folks over age 50 are now forced to be Roth contributions, again, starting 2026. Historically catch up contributions, which are gonna be 7,500 this year, 7,500 next year.

Folks in their fifties are often in their highest earning years. Therefore, the pre-tax option, is usually preferred. However, starting next year, the catch up contributions that 7,500 are going to be required to be Roth contributions. My theory is, nobody ever regrets a Roth contribution.  Nobody ever really regrets a Roth conversion because once you pay tax, you don’t really think about it.

And so if we have, you know, if we have investors in their fifties and sixties that are forced to make a small Roth contribution instead of a pre-tax contribution, that just gives them ex exceedingly more flexibility down the line because now they’re gonna have different buckets of money to pull from in retirement.

Barry Ritholtz: You mentioned earlier tax loss harvesting. We’ve been using Canvas as our direct indexing product, but it seems like this has become ubiquitous. What are your thoughts on tax loss harvesting? What does thoughtful harvesting look like?

Bill Artzerounian: I think the term thoughtful there implies to me that there should be an ongoing activity, not just a year-end item. Historically, taxpayers sell DDIY investors and even advisors, they’d look at the portfolio in December and say, okay, what’s underwater? Let’s book those losses through.

Through direct indexing, this is now an ongoing activity, but you don’t need a direct indexing portfolio to look at your portfolio.

You can even, if you’re not in a direct indexing setup, you can still tax loss harvesting throughout the year. Why just December? This should happen with regularity there. There’s nothing saying we can only book losses in December. Now, a lot of this is dictated by individual stock market volatility.

But with an ultra-diversified bucket of stocks, some will ultimately be losers. So you sell those, you pick up tax losses, you invest in a similar company, so you keep the fidelity of the portfolio, and then, you know, you don’t trigger wash sale rules.

The only caveat here is state by state stuff. New Jersey, for example, does not allow tax loss carry forwards. So we’re doing, in December, we’re doing a bit of the opposite with our New Jersey clients. We’re actually,  we’re looking historically over the, the first 11 months. What did we realize in losses? Let’s go make a gains harvest. Instead of realizing more losses, we’re gonna realize capital gains.

Barry Ritholtz: I know the deductions have, have changed. The standard deductions have, have become, permanent. There are new floors, there are new ceilings for that; for itemized and charitable gifts.

How should those people who are charitably inclined think about, you mentioned bunching donations or donor uh, advised funds. Give us a little more detail about how people should be using these vehicles?

Bill Artzerounian: We’re doing a lot of this with our clients, uh, throughout the year, but specifically at the end of the year, we kind of tee up charitable planning, like, here, let’s think about what we want to accomplish, and then let’s take a look at the end of the year and figure out how we’re gonna get this done, and if it’s the right year to do it.

What we need to be conscious of is all the other deductions, right? I mentioned previously, you might have a hurdle rate before you even start to deduct your charitable gifts, and that’s where you might want to consider bunching. Maybe three years, maybe five years, maybe 10 years worth of charitable gifts into 2025, for example, 2025. Maybe it’s a high income year. Maybe you’re paying down your mortgage, so you’re not getting that mortgage deduction anymore, and you want to take advantage of an appreciated security that you gift for charitable purposes. We, we do a lot of this.

Maybe a client comes to us, they’ve worked at a tech company, the tech company, they’ve been compensated well in that stock. They have charitable intent. We say, okay, let’s use that stock. Let’s send it to a donor-advised fund. Let’s bunch five years worth of gifting. And now you have your own little charitable fund that you can make grants out of over the next five years. So we’re gonna, we’re gonna time the deduction, but we’re not actually gonna change the way you’re giving.

Barry Ritholtz: I’m in New York, you’re in Philly. These are big SALT regions. I know the most recent big, beautiful bill changed all sorts of things. Where are, this is a question I hear all the time. Where are we with SALT deductions today? How has this changed? I know we’re not quite back the way we were, but it seems to have improved for a lot of people.

Tell us what’s going on with state and local tax deductions.

Bill Artzerounian: Well, it’s good news for most folks. For some folks, it’s not gonna change the damn thing. It’s gonna, what we have here is. The for since 2017, the state and local tax deduction as part of your total itemized deductions was limited to $10,000 for folks.

Barry in New York, uh, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania. $10,000 just wasn’t cutting it. A lot of, you know, we, we see tax returns here every day where they’re sometimes six figures of state and local taxes between real estate and income taxes. The new limit is $40,000. That was maybe the most talked about provision of Trump 2.0’s tax bill. It’s an increase from 10K to 40K with caveats.

If you’re earning more than $500,000 of total income, you start to get phased out. These are for, these are for both single filers and married filers. Once you hit 600,000, you’re all the way back to 10K. So you have some clients that are not gonna see a change at all. They make a million dollars a year, they’re not gonna benefit from this whatsoever.

We see other clients where we’re having tactical discussions on all kinds of income. Maybe we defer a capital gain into next year because we want to take full advantage of that SALT deduction this year, or maybe vice versa, but there’s a lot more planning to do on all of these deductions.

We talked about charitable, this is, this is along the same lines.

Barry Ritholtz: What else from the big beautiful Bill has changed the way you think about. Year end planning. Do, do any of these provisions show up as actual savings for clients?

Bill Artzerounian: I think it’s, it’s back to the charitable piece. There are some changes next year that are gonna impact charitable giving, which make 2025 perhaps more attractive from a charitable landscape.

Next year there’s gonna be a, a quote unquote, a floor on charitable gifts where the first 0.5% of your AGI will not be deductible for charitable purposes. So if you make a million bucks. The first 5K you give away to charity provides zero federal tax benefit.

The other change for the highest earning folks, folks in the 37% bracket, they are going to be limited on their overall deductions. They’ll be treated as 35% taxpayers, so that 2% delta can, can really add up when we’re talking about, when we’re talking about big deductions.

We’re doing a lot of. Shifting of charitable, uh, salt deductions, even mortgage, even mortgage deductions. We’re, we’re, we’re trying to get most of that into 2025, especially for our highest income tax-paying clients.

Barry Ritholtz:  There’s still plenty of time before the year ends. There are lots of moves individual investors can make to not only rereduce the taxes they’re gonna owe, uh, for the 2025 year, but also to think about long-term planning, their estate, maximizing every opportunity the government gives us lots of ways to either reduce or defer our current tax bill. Everybody should take full advantage of what’s on offer.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s At the Money.

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At The Money: Year-End Tax Planning Time appeared first on The Big Picture.

Futures Dip After Hitting Record High, As Fed's "QE Lite" Sets Up Christmas Rally

US equity futures are mixed; with small caps higher and tech stocks lagging. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures fall 0.1% after hitting a fresh record high yesterday; Nasdaq 100 contracts -0.5% amid signs of rotation out of tech as the equity rally broadens; Oracle led the broader sector lower on Thursday and Broadcom is poised to do the same in US trading after its sales outlook failed to meet investors’ lofty expectations. Its shares are down over 6% in premarket on lack of updated guidance, adding to weaker AI trade sentiment. In pre-market trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower with NVDA -0.6% and MSFT/META -0.3%; AVGO fell -5.7% after its earnings call despite universal beats across all metrics (bears pointed to the lack of FY27 AI revenue guide). Today we have the first POMO Lite operation by the Fed, in which the central bank will buy $8.2BN in bills this morning, setting up the market for a Christmas rally. Europe’s Stoxx 600 rose as much as 0.5% to a fresh peak, while a measure for Asia advanced to less than 2% from its all-time high. Bond yields are largely unchanged; USD is higher modestly. Commodities are mostly higher led by base metals (copper +2.7%) and gold/silver (+1.1%). There is nothing on the economic calendar; Fed speakers include Philadelphia’s Paulson (8am), Cleveland’s Hammack (8:30am) and Chicago Goolsbee, who dissented from Wednesday’s decision in favor of no change (10:35am).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Alphabet +0.4%, Apple -0.1%, Amazon little changed, Tesla -0.2%, Meta -0.4%, Microsoft -0.4%, Nvidia -0.1%).

• Bristol Myers (BMY) rises 2% after Guggenheim Securities upgraded the drugmaker to buy, citing a “much more compelling risk reward.”
• Broadcom (AVGO) falls 5% after the chip company provided a sales outlook for the AI market that failed to meet investors’ expectations.
• Eli Lilly & Co (LLY) rises 1% after Reuters reported that the FDA’s Commissioner Office sought to cut the time reviewers spent checking documents related to the drugmaker’s experimental weight-loss pill to one week from 60 days.
• Lululemon (LULU) climbs 9% after the yoga-wear retailer said its CEO Calvin McDonald will step down after a seven-year stint, signaling a potential strategy change after sales struggled and the stock fell more than 60% from a 2023 peak.
• Netskope Inc. (NTSK) declines 5% after the security software company posted fiscal third-quarter results.
• Quanex Building Products (NX) climbs 22% after posting fourth-quarter profit and revenue that topped expectations.
• Roblox (RBLX) falls 2% after JPMorgan downgrades to neutral, seeing the stock taking a breather next year due to headwinds around user engagement and bookings.
• Veeva Systems (VEEV) falls 2% on light volume after KeyBanc cut the recommendation on the life-sciences software company to sector weight, saying that a recent round of channel checks has indicated large pharma clients that are in the middle of software evaluations are leaning toward Salesforce’s offering.

In other corporate news, Uber expects to offer robotaxi services in more than 10 markets by the end of next year, as it seeks to become a dominant force in an industry it estimates will eventually be worth at least $1 trillion.  A group of Swiss lawmakers proposed allowing UBS to use AT1 bonds instead of equity to meet capital requirements. T-Mobile US authorized a new shareholder return program of up to $14.6 billion.

S&P 500 futures were slightly weaker after the index notched a record close in the previous session. By contrast, gauges for US blue-chip and small-cap stocks were poised to extend their push into fresh highs. The diverging fortunes for US equities highlight the broadening of a rally that has put the S&P 500 on track for a third successive year of gains. For many investors, this week’s affirmation that the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle is still intact is clearing the way for a year-end rally.

Traders “are searching for alternative real assets, especially given the Federal Reserve rate cut and the possibility of more to come,” wrote Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor. “The rotation also provides something of a hedge for investors, where concentration risk among the ‘Magnificent Seven’ in particular was becoming more of an issue.”

Investors were seeking more clarity on when and how Broadcom will get a payoff from AI but, instead, they got a vague timetable mixed with some concerns about tightening profit margins. Meanwhile, Softbank is said to be studying an acquisition of data center operator Switch to expand in AI and Microsoft’s Mustafa Suleyman describes the technology as “already superhuman” in this weekend’s Big Interview with Bloomberg’s Mishal Husain

Diversification across geographies and themes is becoming a key consideration. After technology heavyweights drove equity gains for much of the year, concerns about stretched valuations and vast capital outlays have prompted investors to look for opportunities elsewhere.

“Given the set-up in markets, diversification is now the price worth paying to keep you fully invested in equities,” wrote Goldman Sachs’s Mark Wilson. He adds that there are compelling investment stories including Korea, Japan, China or the broader emerging markets.

As we noted yesterday, Goldman’s Cyclicals vs. Defensives basket is on its longest rising streak in years. “You don’t get moves like this unless the market is starting to lean into a better growth outlook,” wrote Goldman Sachs managing director Lee Coppersmith. 

Meanwhile, Goldman strategists expect stocks to notch fresh records next year, citing resilient economic growth and broader adoption of artificial intelligence to support corporate earnings. Goldman's Ben Snider reaffirmed his target for the S&P 500 to reach around 7,600 points in 2026, implying gains of about 10% from current levels. Other forecasters and asset managers share the upbeat view, with strategists at firms including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank AG and RBC Capital Markets LLC also calling for US stocks to rise more than 10%.

Some are eyeing gains on an even shorter horizon, betting on further advances before 2025 ends as investors rotate into stocks that have so far remained in tech’s shadow. “Everyone is convincing themselves that there will be a Christmas rally, so it looks like there will be one, and to be honest, there’s no negative catalyst visible until the end of the year,” said Karen Georges, a fund manager at Ecofi Investissements in Paris. “Investors are keen to buy this year’s laggards, it’s a good time to diversify your portfolio at the moment.”

In government news, Trump issued an executive order seeking to limit the influence of proxy advisory firms. Trump also said the US would help with Ukraine’s security in a peace deal with Russia, but continued to express frustration with the pace of the talks.

European stocks tracked their Asian counterparts higher. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.3% after hitting a record earlier. The travel and leisure sector outperforms, while health care stocks lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• UBS shares jump as much as 5%, hitting the highest level since February 2008, after a group of influential Swiss lawmakers proposed watering down the capital demands that the country wants to impose on the bank.
• LPP shares surge as much as 12%, hitting an all-time high, after the clothing company reported quarterly results above expectations and boosted its guidance for 2027.
• Wendel shares rise as much as 7.4%, the most since April, after the French investment firm announced plans to return more than €1.6 billion to shareholders by 2030.
• Sopra Steria shares rise as much as 6.5% after the French digital and software consulting firm picked Rajesh Krishnamurthy as its new chief executive.
• CarrefourSA shares climb a smuch as 9.9% in Istanbul after Mergermarket reported parent Sabanci Holding is in talks to sell some of the Turkish grocery stores.
• Harbour Energy shares rally as much as 7.6% after the British oil and gas company agrees to buy substantially all the subsidiaries of Waldorf Energy Partners and Waldorf Production for $170 million.
• Card Factory shares fall as much as 35%, the most since March 2020, after the firm cut its guidance in what Panmure Liberum called a “shock warning that surprises in scale.”

Asian stocks climbed, buoyed by a rally in Japanese equities on bets the Bank of Japan will hike interest rates next week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1.3%, putting the gauge on track to close at the highest in a month. All sectors were in the green, with TSMC, Toyota Motor and Tencent contributing the most to the advance.
For the week, the gauge was up about 0.6%, on course for its third straight week of gains.  Japan’s Topix was the best performing major index in the region, up 2% to a fresh record, driven by insurance and banking stocks seen as key beneficiaries of a potential hike.

In FX, Bloomberg’s index of the dollar traded near a two-month low on Friday and was on track for a third weekly loss; the pound is down 0.1%.

In rates, treasuries are mixed, with weakness at the long-end steeping the curve. US 10-year yields rise 1 bp to 4.17%. Gilts see a similar steepening move after the UK economy posted a surprise contraction in October.

In commodities, spot gold climbs $55 to the highest since October. Bitcoin falls 0.5%. WTI crude futures drop 0.3% to near $57.40 a barrel.

Fed speakers include Philadelphia’s Paulson (8am), Cleveland’s Hammack (8:30am) and Chicago Goolsbee, who dissented from Wednesday’s decision in favor of no change (10:35am); US economic calendar is blank, with several delayed releases scheduled for next week

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini -0.5%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
• DAX +0.5%
• CAC 40 +0.7%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.17%
• VIX +0.3 points at 15.17
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.36
• euro little changed at $1.1729
• WTI crude -0.3% at $57.44/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump posted that "Prices are coming down FAST, Energy, Oil and Gasoline, are hitting five-year lows, and the Stock Market today just hit an All Time High. Tariffs are bringing in Hundreds of Billions of Dollars.
• Trump signed an executive order on AI, according to the White House website. Furthermore, a Trump administration aide said the executive order is to make sure AI can operate within a single national framework and that they are taking steps for a single national standard on AI.
• Fed regional bank presidents were reappointed in a unanimous vote, with new five-year terms beginning March 1st.
• US offers 'free economic zone' in east if Ukraine cedes Donbas, Zelenskiy says: RTRS
• Trump said the WSJ has another ridiculous story that China is dominating us, and the world, in the production of electricity related to AI.
• US admiral leading US troops in Latin America to step down: RTRS
• China Prepares as Much as $70 Billion in Chip Sector Incentives: BBG
• Nvidia considers increasing H200 chip output due to robust China demand, sources say: RTRS
• White House said Trump signed an order to increase oversight of and take action to restore public confidence in the proxy adviser industry.
• Ukraine fails to fill key posts as corruption scandal lingers: RTRS
• Trump is expected to push the government to dramatically loosen federal restrictions on marijuana.
• US Treasury Department is reportedly planning more access to corporate tax breaks for R&D, and an announcement may come as soon as next week.
• Seizure of Venezuelan Oil Strikes at the Heart of Maduro’s Grip on Power: WSJ
• The US government is to require AI vendors to measure political bias.
• Hope for More Rate Cuts Is Tempting Buyers Back to Bonds: WSJ
• Indiana's Republican-controlled Senate rejected the Congressional redistricting plan backed by President Trump.
• Law Professor Sues Boeing After Alleged Exposure to Toxic Fumes on Flight: WSJ

Trade/Tariffs

• Indian PM Modi said he had a call with US President Trump on Thursday as New Delhi seeks relief from 50% US tariffs on some of the country's key exports to punish India for its Russian oil purchases.
• Indonesia's chief negotiator to the US said they agree to conclude what had been agreed in July, and Indonesia hopes to conclude tariff negotiations with the US by year-end, while Indonesia will send a delegation to Washington to continue tariff talks soon.
• South Korea's Trade Ministry said rare earth trade talks with China will continue.
• Chinese Commerce Ministry announces export licenses for some steel products, with the license to kick in from January 2026.
• Argentina's Government confirms cut to export tax on grains and by-products, according to the Official Gazette.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were predominantly higher following on from the mostly positive handover from Wall St, where the S&P 500 and DJIA notched record closes, but the Nasdaq lagged on Oracle-related headwinds. ASX 200 rallied with mining, materials and financials leading the broad advances, with nearly all sectors in the green. Nikkei 225 advanced after Japan's Lower House recently approved the supplementary budget bill, with the index briefly returning to above the 51,000 level before fading some of the gains. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were somewhat mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark conformed to the upbeat mood in the region, although the mainland lagged despite the recent Central Economic Work Conference where it was stated that China is to make use of RRR and rate cuts flexibly, while China's pledge to implement an appropriately loose monetary policy, implement more proactive fiscal policy, and stabilise the property market with city-specific measures, failed to inspire.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama said they will review various special measures for corporate tax.
• BoJ is likely to maintain its pledge next week to keep raising rates at a pace dependent on how the economy reacts to each increase, according to Reuters sources. Will not release updated estimate on neutral rate, will not use it as the main communication tool on rate hike timing.
• China Industry Ministry said it issued a notice on optimising the import and export supervision measures of lithium thionyl chloride batteries.
• A Japanese Finance Ministry Official said participants at today's primary dealers meeting said a sale reduction of super long JGBs is desirable.
• China prepares as much as USD 70bln in chip sector incentives, according to Bloomberg sources.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened mostly firmer and have continued to reside at highs throughout the morning. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. Travel & Leisure leads alongside Financial Services, whilst Healthcare lags. For Financials, UBS (+4.3%) shares have hit a 17-year high as traders continue to digest reports that Swiss lawmakers have floated a compromise on new capital rules for the bank.

Top European News

• European Commission reportedly considers the second phase of the safe loan scheme for defence projects.
• ECB said it will ask banks to describe what sort of political shock would reduce their CET1 by 300bps

FX

• G10s are modestly mixed vs the Dollar this morning, with very slight underperformance in the JPY, where USD/JPY currently trades at the upper end of a 155.46 to 155.93 range.
• DXY is trading within narrow ranges after declines on Thursday. Today's US docket does not have too much to offer in terms of data; we expect FOMC voters Schmid, Miran and Goolsbee to provide reasoning to their dissents. Currently trades within 98.29-98.44 parameters, trading at session highs at the time of writing; there may be some resistance at its 100DMA at 98.64.
• Despite GDP figures signalling a contraction in growth for October, sterling trades a just touch lower against the USD. GDP data showed continued weakness in production and construction, with the ONS noting JLR was unable to spark a recovery after production was halted in November.
• Elsewhere, the Antipodeans were the outperformers in the G10 FX space amid higher commodity prices, but have since pulled back off their best levels as sentiment wanes a touch.

Fixed Income

• USTs have held a negative bias this morning, attempting to scale back from some of the strength seen post-FOMC, which also sparked a steepening of the curve. Today, US paper is trading at the lower end of a 112-09+ to 112-14 range; there is now a clear path towards the 112-00 mark, should the pressure continue, and then 111-29 thereafter. The data docket ahead is void of any pertinent data, but focus will be on scheduled Fed speak via Paulson, Hammack and Goolsbee – the latter, alongside Miran and Schmid, should release an explanation for their recent dissent also.
• Bunds are following USTs and have held a negative bias throughout the morning. Some modest upticks were seen following the softer-than-expected UK GDP figures, but this ultimately proved fleeting. For the EZ specifically, German/French CPIs were unrevised, whilst Spanish HICP Y/Y was revised a touch higher – no move was seen in the German benchmark, which currently hovers just shy of the 127.50 mark.
• Gilts initially gapped higher by around 11 ticks at open after the UK’s softer-than-expected GDP report, but have since waned following the negative bias seen across global peers. Currently trading at the lower end of a relatively narrow 91.38 to 91.63 range.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks continue to rebound following Thursday’s selloff on broader market optimism and rising geopolitical tensions between Venezuela and the US. WTI and Brent oscillate in a USD 57.85-58.19/bbl and USD 61.49-61.86/bbl band, respectively, as the European session gets underway. This comes following a bounce from their lows in nearly two months, as equities stateside began to rebound.
• Spot XAU continues to trend higher after breaking out of its 9-day range in Thursday’s session. After peaking at USD 4286/oz in Thursday’s session, XAU spent the APAC session fluctuating in a USD 4265-4284/oz range before extending higher as short positioning continues to unwind.
• 3M LME Copper peaked to another ATH of USD 11.94k/t in the latter part of the APAC session, but has failed to hold onto gains as the European session gets underway. The red metal rallied in Thursday’s session, in line with the broader risk tone, but has pulled back and is currently trading at USD 11.8k/t as participants take profit.
• India Minister says India to start coal export for the first time.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• White House said a lot of quiet planning is underway for the next phase of the Gaza peace plan, and they will make announcements at an appropriate time.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump said they would help on security with Ukraine, and he thought they were close to a deal, while he added that there is a meeting on Saturday, and they will attend if they think there is a good chance. Trump also commented that he has spoken to China and Russia about nuclear weapons.
• Kremlin Aide said the US will sooner or later discuss with Moscow the outcome of its discussion with Ukraine, via RIA. Moscow did not revise US proposals after discussing with Ukraine and may "not like a lot of things there".
• Russia's Kremlin, on Ukraine's referendum suggestion, said the whole of Donbass belongs to Russia

Geopolitics: Other

• US President Trump said that it is going to start on land soon regarding Venezuela.
• US is reportedly preparing to seize more ships transporting Venezuelan oil, in which action would target tankers that may have transported other sanctioned crude such as Iranian, while the seizure has led to a suspension of at least three shipments, according to Reuters sources.
• US Treasury issued fresh Venezuela-related sanctions in which it was reported to have sanctioned Venezuelan President Maduro's nephews and six ships carrying Venezuelan oil.
• US President Trump said he will have to make a couple of phone calls regarding Thailand and Cambodia. It was later reported that Thailand's PM said a call with US President Trump is set for 21.20 local time 14:20GMT/09:20EST.
• China's Military said small Philippine aircraft "invaded" Scarborough Shoal airspace. Monitored, warned forcefully and drove away the aircraft.

US Event Calendar

• No Macro data
• 8:00 am: Fed’s Paulson Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 8:30 am: Fed’s Hammack Speaks at Real Estate Roundtable Series
• 10:35 am: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks at Economic Outlook Symposium

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Thank Friday it's Friday after a busy week. There won't be much thanks in our household though as school breaks up today and we have to work out what to do with them for another 10 days before we go on holiday. If anyone wants a 10yr old, or two identical 8yr olds as an intern for a week let me know. Skills? Eating cake. Weaknesses? Not clearing it up. Apply within!

The celebratory cake ended up being rolled out last night after an inauspicious start, with the S&P 500 (+0.21%) recovering from a weak open to reach a new all-time high. US equities were initially weighed down by a big slump for US tech stocks as Oracle (-10.83%) was the worst performer in the S&P 500 following its earnings release. However, the broader market mood was more positive as investors continued to digest the Fed’s rate cut from the previous day, and also helped by ebbing inflation fears as 2yr inflation swaps fell to their lowest in 13 months. And Europe saw a strong rally across the board as investors dialled back the chance of an ECB rate hike next year, which helped the STOXX 600 (+0.55%) to close less than half a percent beneath its record high.  

Those earnings from Oracle (-10.83%) on Wednesday night were a big story yesterday, as it revived fears about the sustainability of AI spending. As a reminder, they reported revenue that was beneath expectations, and capital expenditures that were above expectations. So that meant the share price fell to its lowest level since June, having now shed -39% since its closing peak back in September. Remember as well that Oracle’s CDS spreads have been used as a hedge against a potential AI bubble, and their 5yr CDS spreads rose +12bps to 134bps by the close, their highest level since 2009 around the GFC. It seems to me that since early October the AI trade has changed from everyone being a winner to winners and losers. In the period where Oracle is down nearly -40%, fellow hyperscaler Google is up around +30%. There are other examples of winners and losers with the likes of Coreweave down -39% since early October and the poster child of AI, namely OpenAI under much more scrutiny. I can’t help but think this trend would continue in 2026 where the AI story will result in more divergence. For markets overall it will depend on whether one of the mega cap stocks get on the wrong or right side of that winners and losers equation.   

Back to yesterday and while the Oracle news cascaded across US tech stocks, leaving the Magnificent 7 -0.66% lower on the day, the overall equity market managed to shake off initial negativity as the optimism we saw after the Fed’s rate cut on Wednesday again took hold. The S&P 500 (+0.21%) reversed a -0.77% decline early in the session, and outperformance by blue-chip and small-cap stocks also sent the Russell 2000 (+1.21%) and the Dow Jones (+1.34%) to new record highs.

The swing in AI sentiment continued with Broadcom’s earnings after the US close. Following a +78% advance YTD, the chipmaker now has a larger market cap than Meta and Tesla, playing a growing role in the tech market narrative. The stock initially advanced +4% after-hours after unveiling stronger-than-expected revenue guidance for the current quarter ($19.1bn vs $18.5bn est.). But it then turned sharply lower as management held off on giving an AI revenue forecast for the year, leaving Broadcom’s shares down -4.5% by the end of after-market trading. NASDAQ 100 futures are down a tenth and the S&P equivalent is flat.  

US Treasuries also had a mixed day yesterday. Yields initially moved lower as markets digested the Fed’s latest rate cut and reacted to messy set of weekly claims data. However that move reversed as the session went on, and 10yr yields (+0.9bps to 4.16%) inched higher late in the session after the Fed Board unanimously reappointed eleven Fed regional presidents to new five-year terms (Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who is retiring, was the lone exception). The regional presidents’ current terms expire in February so the advance announcement suggests that the Board was united in wanting to avoid the risk that the reappointment process raises questions over Fed independence.

At the frontend, 2yr Treasury yields (+0.2bps) were little changed, with their rise limited by a decline in breakevens as the 2yr inflation swap fell -2.0bps to 2.43%, its lowest level since November 2024. That was in part due to oil prices declining to their lowest since October, with Brent crude down -1.49% to $61.28/bbl. The amount of Fed cuts priced by December 2026 stayed at 55bps (-0.4bps on the day), so still consistent with at least two cuts next year. Meanwhile, the recent dollar weakness continued, with the dollar index (-0.45%) hitting an eight-week low.  

Over in Europe, markets put in a strong performance as investors dialled back their expectations for ECB rate hikes next year. By the close, the chance of a hike by the December 2026 meeting was down to 28%, which is still noticeable, but down from 40% the previous day when front-end yields hit their highest in months. So those more dovish expectations supported assets across the continent, with the STOXX 600 (+0.55%) closing half a percent beneath its record high, whilst Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.72%) hit an all-time high. Similarly for sovereign bonds, yields on 10yr bunds (-0.8bps), OATs (-1.4bps) and BTPs (-2.0bps) all moved lower.

Otherwise in Europe, the main story was from the Swiss National Bank, who left their policy rate at 0% as expected. However, the perception was that a return to negative interest rates was unlikely in the next few meetings, and SNB Chair Schlegel said that the “hurdle is higher for the introduction of a negative interest rate”. That backdrop meant the Swiss franc was the top-performing G10 currency yesterday, up +0.57% against the US dollar. Meanwhile, yields on 10yr Swiss government debt rose +0.8bps, contrary to the declines across the rest of Europe.

Asian stock markets have gathered some positive momentum this morning with the Hang Seng index (+1.69%) leading the way, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.23%) is also notably higher, continuing the substantial increases from the previous session. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+1.08%) and the KOSPI (+1.13%) are also strong supported by a recovery in technology stocks. The CSI (+0.57%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.31%) are lagging a bit, as local semiconductor manufacturers are lower due to the anticipated rise in competition from NVIDIA Corporation.

Finally, there wasn’t much economic data yesterday, although we did get the weekly initial jobless claims from the US. They were higher than expected, at 236k in the week ending December 6 (vs. 220k expected). Treasuries saw a modest rally following the release but for the most part markets took the print in their stride. There were always expectations of choppiness around the Thanksgiving holiday, and the 4-week moving average was still at 216.75k, which is at the bottom of the range in recent months. We also had the trade balance for September, which had the US trade deficit falling to its smallest since June 2020, at just $52.8bn (vs. $63.1bn expected).  

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK GDP for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Paulson, Hammack and Goolsbee.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 08:56

COVID Porn Is Back

Authored by 'sallust' via DailySceptic.org,

The tireless hacks at the BBC have emerged from their bunkers once again to terrorise the public by bravely touring the hospitals and whipping up hysteria about the latest outbreak of flu.

It seems “literally hundreds” of patients have been bombarding A&E departments, according to Health Editor Hugh Pym and Chloe Hayward who have been courageously touring the front line:

As one patient leaves his room at Leicester Royal Infirmary’s acute unit, cleaning staff are waiting outside.

He is barely out of the room before the bed is stripped and bleach is sprayed. The next patient is already waiting to come in.

Over two days the BBC was given access to the hospital to witness first-hand how it is coping with an early surge of winter bug cases.

Flu season has hit a month earlier than normal this year, with experts warning there appears to be a more severe strain of the virus – mutated H3N2 – circulating.

Hospitals around the country, like this one in Leicester, are doing all they can to avoid becoming completely overwhelmed.

“Completely overwhelmed.” Sounds familiar?

They’re at the Royal Infirmary in Leicester, and after citing some choice case studies, miss no opportunity to make it sound like the end of the world is imminent:

“There are patients in every cubicle,” Consultant Saad Jawaid says, as Paige is wheeled in. “Another ambulance has just rocked up.”

We watch as he works with colleagues in the resus unit to find desperately needed bed spaces.

“When beds are full we have to move people – sometimes that means those who can sit are moved out of beds and into chairs,” he says.

Regardless of the situation in the hospital and the range of conditions people are turning up with, on closer examination it things aren’t quite as bad as the story’s florid copy suggests:

Richard Mitchell has been the Chief Executive of University Hospitals Leicester NHS Trust since 2021 – and has witnessed first-hand how it gets harder to cope with each winter that passes.

”We are already seeing very high levels of flu,” he tells us. He expects numbers to climb into January. “That is one of the many things I am concerned about at the moment.

“At this point I feel we are working at the limits of our ability.”

What exactly was he expecting? An idle coast through to April before going on a well-unearned summer break? It raises the interesting question of what people who work for the NHS think they are likely to be confronted with in 21st century Britain.

The story ends up with the predictable exhortation to get a flu vaccine.

The other day the Telegraph reported that the currently available jab is a “poor match” for the strain that’s doing the rounds anyway.

Stop Press: The BBC’s Nick Triggle (often a voice of relative sanity in the Covid years) has questioned how unprecedented this year’s flu wave really is, pointing out that the NHS’s data only go back to 2021!

NHS England says the number of patients with flu in hospital is the worst on record for this time of year, describing it as an unprecedented situation.

It is, but that’s because the data only goes back to 2021-22. In doing so, it misses several really difficult flu seasons during the 2010s.

The 2014-15 and 2017-18 winters were particularly bad – more than 20,000 deaths from flu were recorded.

Both were far worse than what we have seen over the past four years.

So when the NHS talks about being in an unprecedented situation it is not taking into account what happened just a decade ago.

Could this flu season match those? It is quite possible. The strain that is dominant this year – H3N2 – was the one behind the 2014-15 and 2017-18 spikes.

But it is worth remembering what is being seen now is not something that has never happened before.

Enough said. But if you’re feeling nostalgic and suffering from Covid-era withdrawal symptoms, the BBC’s story will take you back to the good old days. The only thing missing is some reckless modelling.

Worth reading in full – unless you’re of a nervous disposition.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 08:25

The post Silly Trump Boast #76,249: The Trade Deficit Plummeted in September appeared first on CEPR.

Beijing Prepares Its Own $70 Billion Chips Act

News earlier this week reported that President Trump had approved exports of Nvidia’s AI H200 chips to China. Shortly afterward, however, reports emerged that Beijing plans to limit access to those advanced chips as it pushes to strengthen domestic chip innovation and production and reduce reliance on U.S. technology.

Both the U.S. and China are deploying national strategies through a whole-of-government approach to bolster key industries. In the U.S., Trump has developed a national strategy around chips, rare earths, and revitalizing manufacturing, and could soon announce a new strategy focused on humanoid robots.

In China, Beijing is set to unveil a massive incentive package worth up to $70 billion to bolster the domestic chipmaking industry, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with ongoing discussions.

Even at the low end, the massive incentive package would rival the U.S. Chips Act. At the top end, it would represent the most extensive state-backed semiconductor program China has ever put forward.

Here are more details from the report:

• The new semiconductor support package is worth between $28 billion and $70 billion.

• The package would involve subsidies and financing support separate from existing vehicles like the $50 billion Big Fund III.

• Beijing aims to reduce reliance on foreign chipmakers such as Nvidia and to accelerate the rise of domestic champions like Huawei, SMIC, Cambricon, and Moore Threads.

Beijing’s “whole nation” strategy under President Xi Jinping is another clear signal that the US and China are locked in a broadening superpower rivalry race...

This rivalry is not a traditional shooting war, at least for now. Instead, it is being fought across technology, economics, military power, finance, and competing economic systems. It is a new Cold War that has been unfolding for more than a decade.

President Trump is the first US president to directly confront this uncomfortable reality through a Make America Great Again framework, centered on reshoring critical industries, rebuilding manufacturing, and preparing the country for an increasingly volatile 2030s.

Democrats, on the other hand, have responded to the MAGA agenda with lawfare and pressure campaigns driven by far-left activist groups, raising a more fundamental question about where the modern left-wing party, increasingly embracing socialist and Marxist ideas, places its allegiance.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 08:05

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

A brief excerpt:

Tracking local data gives an early look at what happened the previous month and also reveals regional differences in both sales and inventory.

November sales will be mostly for contracts signed in September and October, and mortgage rates averaged 6.35% in September and 6.25% in October (lower than for closed sales in October).

In November, sales in these markets were down 5.7% YoY. Last month, in October, these same markets were up 2.8% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There was one fewer working days in November 2025 (18) as in November 2024 (19). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be more than the change in NSA data (there are other seasonal factors).
...
This was just several more early reporting markets. Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article.

Nuclear Reactors For Investors

Submitted by Steffan Szumowski from The Nuclear Review

“We’re designing a Liquid Metal Reactor”

“Our design will utilize proven technologies”

“The design makes our reactor ‘walk-away safe’”

There’s a growing list of public and private companies that are working to build reactors for various purposes. These reactors vary widely in their design, size, output, and potential purpose. Everything is on the table: from using the same designs we've used for decades to novel ideas still only on the drawing board.

This article is designed to serve as a point of reference when reading about a new company and the reactor they’re designing. Some of the features companies discuss are less novel than they sound, and vice versa. Hopefully, the information provided here can provide a more clear picture for the investor to make an informed decision.

Reactor Designs Features

Skipping the nuclear physics details, since the basic principles are consistent across the designs we’ll explore, a nuclear reactor facilitates the controlled fission of uranium atoms, harnessing the resulting energy for various applications. After that, the differences we see in reactor designs are mostly in the choice of the fuel, moderator, and coolant.

If we include all the variations that have been used over time and the novel ideas yet to be produced, this will get out of hand. We’ll only be focusing on the most common options.

Fuel

Uranium is king when it comes to fuel for nuclear reactors. Compared to the other fuel options, thorium and plutonium, uranium wins out mostly due to natural abundance and path dependence. You don’t just drop in a chunk of uranium from the ground though. It’s often enriched and comes in a few different forms:

• Uranium Oxide (UO2) - The most common fuel for water-cooled reactors. The pellets are stacked inside fuel rods and loaded into the reactor core, and then replaced about every two years. The design holds major historical preference, but is less useful in high temperature applications, such as in reactors intended for industrial heat processes.

• Uranium Zirconium (U-Zr) - This alloy improves on the UO2 fuel design in respect to thermal conductivity. U-Zr has improved conductivity and no oxygen, which makes it ideal for use in reactors with liquid sodium. But, with a lower melting point, it isn’t able to be used in gas-cooled reactors.
   
• Uranium Zirconium Hydride (U-ZrH) - This fuel is unique with its addition of hydrogen. The hydrogen acts as a balance to help shutdown reactors when temperature gets out of control and spikes up. This is why U-ZrH is typically found in research reactors at universities and national laboratories; when combined with additional cooling measures and engineered hydrogen management, the fuel offers a near “walk-away safe” capability.
   
• Mixed Oxide (MOX) - Plutonium Oxide (PuO2) can be mixed with UO2 to create MOX for use in many types of reactors, including those that would normally operate on UO2 pellets. MOX is not widely used in the US, and is instead more extensively used in the French commercial fleet. It enables useful consumption of old nuclear weapons materials and recycling of spent nuclear fuel.
   
• Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) - The “Cadillac” of reactor fuel is the newer TRISO design, which is a spherical UO2 pellet encased in layers of pyrolytic carbon and silicon carbide. This provides enhanced durability for fuel failures. Its costs are comparatively high, considering the overall fuel density is only 5% that of UO2 fuel, but this is potentially countered by reduced protective design features of the reactor plant due to the fuel’s superior integrity.

A frequent topic of discussion is also the enrichment levels of fuel, especially with some of the newer reactor designs requiring more highly enriched fuel than has traditionally been used in the commercial fleet. The enrichment in nuclear fuel refers to the percentage of fissionable, or fissile, material in the fuel. This fissile material is the uranium isotope U-235, with the majority of the rest of the uranium in the fuel being non-fissile U-238. Enriched fuel is usually required, since natural uranium mined from the ground is around 0.7% U-235, and most reactors need enrichment levels around 3-5%. The sub-5% enrichment level is referred to as Low Enriched Uranium (LEU). Some of the newer commercial reactors though require High-Assay LEU (HALEU), which is enriched to around 15-20% U-235. There are even higher levels of enrichment, usually reserved for government-sponsored research and military use due to proliferation concerns.

Moderator

The moderator is used in “thermal” reactors to slow down the neutrons flying around in the core, which allows them to more easily interact with uranium and cause fission. Most of the current global fleet operates on this principle. Moderators have typically been:

• Light water (H2O) - This is just normal water with additional filtering and chemistry controls. Abundant, cheap, and excellent for slowing down neutrons given hydrogen has similar mass to the fission-inducing neutrons.
   
• Heavy water (D2O) - Better suited for moderating than H2O due to the deuterium (an isotope of hydrogen) having a significantly smaller chance of absorbing one of those fission-inducing neutrons. It’s not used as much in the global reactor fleet (mostly used in Canadian reactors) due to its complicated and expensive production process.
   
• Graphite - Used as a moderator in the form of solid blocks. Use of graphite also means a second material will need to be used for the coolant, compared to H2O/D2O that fill both the moderator and coolant roles. Graphite holds a heat tolerance advantage over water moderators, enabling higher core temperatures and better thermal efficiency.

Compared to thermal reactors, “fast” reactors operate without a moderator, allowing neutrons to maintain their higher, “fast” energy. This enables the use of a broader range of fuels, while also offering the potential for reactors to breed more fuel than they consume. They can also operate at higher temperatures than most thermal reactors, enabling additional potential applications. Fast reactors aren’t without their disadvantages though, as most of them intend to use HALEU, contributing to higher start up costs and a growing concern for a current lack of that fuel’s supply chain. Lastly, there are engineering and operational challenges with handling high-energy neutrons and materials, some of which may be unquantifiable until actual system operation can be further observed.

Coolant

All reactors have a coolant to meet two main objectives: first, to get the energy from fission out of the core to prevent overheating, and second, to transfer that heat to the secondary system for electrical generation or other industrial purposes. Coolants are usually:

• H2O or D2O - The most frequently used coolant for the current global fleet. The material is cheap and abundant, but requires high pressurization to prevent boiling for non-BWRs, and its moderation ability is a downside for fast reactor applications.
   
• Liquid Sodium - Significantly higher boiling point and thermal conductivity compared to water. This enables lower operating pressures and higher thermal efficiencies. There’s a horrible potential downside though, as sodium reacts violently when exposed to water or air.
   
• Molten Salt - Similar to sodium with its higher thermal conductivity, but with an advantage of a melting point almost twice as high as sodium. The downsides are less precedence in nuclear history and a much higher melting point, leading to solidification concerns. Molten salt also has a complex structure, such as toxic and expensive beryllium, the requirement for enriched lithium, and tritium production concerns. Tritium in particular has received significant attention in recent years, as it is one of the main points of contention for how to handle the cooling water used during and after the Fukushima disaster.
   
• Inert Gas - Helium and carbon dioxide have been used in gas-cooled reactors with graphite as the moderator. The balance here is less corrosion and radiation than sodium and salt reactors while still gaining high thermal efficiency, but the smaller power density leads to the requirement of having to construct much larger reactor cores.

Reactor Design Combinations

Put all these different fuels, coolants, and moderators together, and what do you get? The four major reactor designs that most investors will come across when evaluating companies in the nuclear industry:

Light Water Reactor (LWR)

The US’s current fleet is made of two subsets of the LWR category: the pressurized water reactor (PWR) and boiling water reactor (BWR). Both of these designs use light water as the coolant and moderator, with UO2 as the fuel. LWRs have the most reactor-years of operation and experience, with no close second.

PWRs use a pressurized system to enable higher operating temperatures without boiling the coolant. The water passes through the core (primary loop) to take away fission heat and transfer that energy through a heat exchanger to the secondary water system (secondary loop). There, the water is allowed to boil so the steam can drive a turbine for electricity production. Radiological concerns are therefore minimized to the primary loop, but additional systems are needed to maintain pressure and obvious concerns come with operating at significantly higher pressures.

BWRs operate by letting the water boil in the core and using that steam to directly spin a turbine. This enables the BWR to have a simpler system, but radiological concerns now include all the way out to the electrical generation system, versus just within the primary loop.

Companies building/developing LWRs: Cameco (Westinghouse), NuScale, GE Vernova, Holtec, Hadron, Rolls-Royce

Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor (SFR)

These reactors gained runtime under multiple test reactors, including Phénix and Superphénix in France, Joyo and Monju in Japan, and the FFTF and EBR-II reactors in the US. Unmoderated and liquid sodium cooled, SFRs can use multiple types of fuel, such as U-Zr and MOX. Their initial operations were marred most notably by difficult-to-repair leaks, leading Admiral Rickover to shun one of the earliest sodium reactors in favor of PWRs for his nuclear submarine program. SFRs offer potential benefits though with higher temperatures and thermal efficiencies, which leads to additional use cases in industrial applications. Lastly, there is potential for them to act as breeder reactors which can produce more fuel than they consume.

Companies building/developing SFRs: TerraPower, Oklo, Aalo 

Molten Salt Reactor (MSR)

These reactors have the least experience among current reactor designs. MSRs can operate as thermal reactors with almost any fuel, a graphite moderator, and molten salt as the coolant. Newer designs also have the MSRs operating as fast reactors. These designs can even have a novel fuel dissolved directly into the molten salt coolant itself with no moderator. The thermal reactor version has similar use cases to SFRs, due to the high operating temperature.

Companies building/developing MSRs: Kairos, Terrestrial, Natura

High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR)

It is important to note that HTGRs are different from their predecessors, the Gas-Cooled Reactor (GCR). The older GCRs were only focused on generating electrical power for commercial grids. They had to be significantly larger than PWRs due to using less-enriched uranium and poor energy density of the coolant, usually carbon dioxide. The newer HTGRs are designed to use enriched uranium, usually TRISO fuel, with graphite moderation and helium cooling. Precedence for HTGRs can be found in reactors like Fort St. Vrain in the US and the Thorium High-Temperature Reactor-300 (THTR-300) in Germany. The current designs being developed haven’t varied much from previous HTGRs, which may yield easier licensing processes. The higher operational temperatures of HTGRs will allow for more uses than just electricity.

Companies building/developing HTGRs: X-energy, Radiant, Valar, Terra Innovatum, Nano Nuclear, BWXT

Considerations for the Potential Investor

The likely question an investor would ask at this point is: which one is best? Unfortunately there is no good answer to this question. They all have distinct advantages and disadvantages that need to be compared to the company’s intended market, and then backtested to try and infer the reactor’s chance of success. Here are a few topics to help evaluate a company’s project:

Capacity Factor

The capacity factor is a measure of how consistently a reactor achieves its maximum rated output. The champions of the capacity factor are large LWRs, with a well-documented recent history of over 90%. This contrasts greatly with some of the other reactor designs, such as SFRs that saw significantly lower capacity factors due to ongoing material management issues, such as leaks. A lower capacity factor will mean operational delays, additional costs, and less revenue. HTGRs are better off than SFRs, however still not as consistently high as LWRs, and MSRs are still relatively untested.

Important to additionally note is the time it takes to achieve a high capacity factor. LWRs did not achieve a 90% capacity factor in their first year of operation. Some new reactors struggled to achieve capacity factors in the teens in their first years of testing. It took multiple decades of experience to gain the capacity factors that we see today. Also, the experience that has been gained is on the equipment and designs we currently use, not what is still on the drawing board. It is almost inappropriate to assume that a reactor that has never been operated can achieve a high capacity factor on its first day of operation.

Of particular concern should be when a company describes a feature of their reactor as novel. This can directly translate to future engineering and licensing issues, in addition to operational concerns (likely unaccounted for), leading to new costs.

Power Rating

A more minor, yet still important, point to be mindful of; particularly when evaluating the intended market for a reactor. The term for describing the output of a reactor goes by multiple names, including power rating, nameplate rating, thermal power (MWt or MWth, interchangeable), and electric power (MWe).

The number to be asking and looking for is the MWe, as this number describes the actual energy that a commercial reactor would output to a connected load or electrical grid, and could be used for revenue projections based on electricity rates. The number frequently given in lieu of the MWe is MWt, which is a measure of the power generated inside the reactor core. This number does not reflect what the usable output of the reactor will be, and is a poor gauge of the reactor’s potential application.

While not exact, as efficiency varies based on reactor design, a rule of thumb for converting MWt to MWe is to divide the MWt by three. So, a reactor marketed as rated to 300 MWt is about 100 MWe. This MWe number could then be taken and compared to the output of a diesel generator or coal/gas/solar/wind system, to see where replacement opportunities may exist.

The Small Modular Reactor (SMR)

The term used to have some definition to it, with the hallmarks of a small footprint and lower power output. The SMR also offered a wide range of new possible applications, including, but not limited to: remote communities, process heat, mining operations, military installations, marine propulsion, disaster response, and desalination.

But recently, some of the designs claiming the SMR label have swelled in size and rating, while the large reactor designs have gained modularity features. This has led to a loss of significance of the term SMR, as it now applies to an ever-widening array of designs. At this point, it seems to be mostly used as a marketing tactic, with its mention still catching the attention of most investors.

While some companies have progressed through the licensing process, none of them have actually successfully built and operated their SMR. This means there is no means of projecting potential engineering, licensing, construction, or testing problems that should be very reasonably expected. The only example to extrapolate potential issues from is the Vogtle 3 and 4 reactors. They had the most experienced reactor planning, engineering, and construction teams they could ask for, and yet through a combination of regulatory struggles, engineering complications, and construction management failures, they were built at a miserably slower speed than projected and at a dramatically higher cost.

Even with this recent example on full display for everyone, most new reactor production companies promise commercialization of their designs within the next five years. This is likely beyond achievable for many.

Precedence vs Innovation

This has arguably been one of the more divisive approaches to the development of newer and smaller reactors. Should the team pursue a more advanced reactor with innovative design aspects and novel safety features? Or, should they stick to what works, not fix what isn’t broken, and try not to reinvent the wheel?

Precedence offers familiarity. LWR designs benefit from decades of operational history. This reduces uncertainty in licensing, construction, and operation. These designs still face problems, as discussed above, but due to recently completed construction and testing programs, uncertainties have been greatly diminished. It’s no coincidence the most recently certified reactor designs are LWRs from NuScale and Cameco’s Westinghouse.

On the other hand, innovation brings the potential of disruptive advancements. Designs like SFRs, MSRs, and HTGRs promise higher thermal efficiencies, broader fuel flexibility, and potential new applications beyond electricity generation. Yet, innovation also brings uncertainty. The NRC is still unfamiliar with these designs, leading to prolonged approval times and rejection in some cases such as with the Aurora SFR from Oklo. Engineering and construction challenges will likely reveal themselves later in the process, resulting in cost overruns. The argument can be further tipped back in favor of novel designs though, as more safe design features like TRISO fuel could increase chances of licensing success.

For investors, this balance demands careful evaluation. A company pursuing innovation should have strong partnerships, a credible roadmap, and a clear path to de-risk novel aspects. Conversely, companies relying on precedence must show a competitive edge in cost, efficiency, or scalability compared to peers.

Conclusion

Investing in the next generation of nuclear reactor technologies is about as exciting as it gets. The spectrum of designs from tried-and-true LWRs to innovative MSRs offers opportunities to shape the future of energy. Yet, diversity in a highly technical industry brings an equally high degree of difficulty when it comes to choosing which company to invest in.

Successful investments in this space demand more than enthusiasm; they require discernment. The key lies in understanding concepts like capacity factor, licensing hurdles, construction timelines, and operational precedents. Companies championing well-understood designs bring the advantage of reduced uncertainty, but may face limitations in application and heavier competition. Meanwhile, pioneers of novel reactor concepts promise groundbreaking advancements but must navigate uncharted engineering, regulatory, and market waters.

Ultimately, the winners in this field will be those who can bridge the gap between vision and execution, and manage expectations. Serious advantages are also held by companies with operational test reactors at national laboratories and universities. They’re gaining the actual runtime needed to improve their designs and manage future risks. For investors, due diligence is paramount. Look for companies with clear roadmaps, realistic timelines, and strategic partnerships that can mitigate risks while capitalizing on opportunities.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 07:20

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

• Howard Marks: Is It a Bubble? Ours is a remarkable moment in world history. A transformative technology is ascending, and its supporters claim it will forever change the world. To build it requires companies to invest a sum of money unlike anything in living memory. News reports are filled with widespread fears that America’s biggest corporations are propping up a bubble that will soon pop. (Oaktree Capital)

• The Collapse of Human Knowledge: And why you should create more in the age of AI. (Grant Varner’s Almanack) see also Teaching when to trust: As fake news accelerates, we need to teach our children how to think critically. Finnish schools are leading the charge. (New Humanist) 

• The Five Things Luxury Shoppers Want Right Now: Jean-Marc Mansvelt, CEO of LVMH’s leather house Berluti, explains what consumers are looking for from the industry. (Bloomberg)

• Crypto’s rocky year: The industry was hugely optimistic when Donald Trump returned to the White House. But bitcoin has fallen by a quarter in two months. (Financial Times)

• How DoorDash became an $85 billion behemoth and won the delivery wars: The company has more than twice the U.S. market share of the next competitor, Uber Eats—but that’s just the beginning, says CEO Tony Xu. (Fortune)

• Why ‘job hugging’ can be worse than quitting: In a low-hire labor market, clinging to a current role—however unsatisfying it is—may seem logical. But there’s a psychological impact to feeling stuck. (Fast Company)

• What True Wealth Looks Like: Money can make you happier, but only if you don’t care about it. (The Atlantic)

• The quest to slow aging leads scientists into the powerhouse of cells: Texas A&M researchers create mini mitochondria factories using tiny nanoflowers. (Washington Post)

• Want This Hearing Aid? Well, Who Do You Know? AI-powered startup Fortell has become a secret handshake for the privileged hearing-impaired crowd who swear by the product. Now, it wants to be in your ears. (Wired)

• The ‘Race Against Time’ to Save Music Legends’ Decaying Tapes: New problems are plaguing old reels, putting decades of history at risk. One man, armed with hair dryers and a love of tinkering, is leading the charge to rescue them. Much of America’s musical heritage is stored on artists’ studio tapes. But as they age, many of those reels are slowly deteriorating … … putting work by 20th-century masters like Bob Dylan, Fleetwood Mac and Bruce Springsteen at risk. One audio engineer, armed with unconventional machinery, is trying to solve that problem before it’s too late. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Stephen Cohen, BlackRock Chief Product Officer and Head of Global Product Solutions. He is a member of BlackRock’s Global Executive Committee. Previously, he was Global Head of Fixed Income Indexing (iShares); and Chief Investment Strategist for International Fixed Income and iShares. Blackrock manages $13.5 trillion in AUM; its iShares division is over $5 trillion.

Boom or Bubble? The open-ended nature of the AI capex boom is good to see; Bubbles are not formed when investors think critically.

Source: Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Delivery Theft And Scams Are Reshaping Holiday Shopping Decisions In 2025

Americans may be preparing for holiday sales and gift lists, but a new survey shows that growing anxiety over safety and scams is shaping how they shop in 2025. Concerns about home security, crowded retail environments, and package theft are pushing changes in buying behavior, from delivery choices to how—and when—people visit stores, according to a study from Hanwah Vision. The key findings were:

• 62% of Americans are concerned about porch pirates this year.
• 59.5% would pay more for secure delivery options.
• 40.5% of Americans say that safety concerns influenced their decision to shop online or in-store this year. That share rises to 61% among Gen Z.
• 31% of Americans lack confidence that retailers provide adequate security during the holidays.
• 35.5% often avoid crowded stores or peak hours because of safety concerns.
• 40% of Gen Zers plan to do most of their holiday shopping online.
• 21% say they feel less safe in stores this year compared to last.
• 42% of men would buy from a website they’ve never heard of if it offered a big discount, compared to 32% of women.
• Only 31% expect their overall holiday spending to rise.

The study found that fear of package theft remains one of the biggest concerns of the season. Sixty-two percent of shoppers worry about porch pirates, and nearly 60 percent say they are willing to pay extra for delivery options that promise greater protection. Those worries are driving homeowners to beef up security with cameras, motion-sensing lights, doorbell alerts and locked delivery boxes. Shoppers are no longer just hoping their gifts arrive—they want assurance that they will arrive safely.

Safety is also influencing where people shop. Forty-point-five percent of Americans say concerns about crime, scams or crowded stores played a role in whether they chose in-person shopping or online purchasing this year. Among Gen Z shoppers, that figure climbs to 61 percent, with 40 percent planning to do most of their holiday shopping online. Younger shoppers are especially wary of in-store risks, with one in five saying they feel less safe in shops this year than last. Their shift online might protect them from in-store theft or crowds, but it brings new vulnerabilities such as phishing scams and counterfeit retailers.

The study says that security doubts extend to brick-and-mortar stores. Nearly a third of shoppers say they don’t trust retailers to provide adequate protection during the holidays, and more than a third say they avoid crowded stores or peak hours because of safety concerns. For retailers already battling competition from e-commerce, a sense of insecurity could become another reason customers choose to shop elsewhere. Shoppers want visible signs that stores are investing in protection, whether through trained staff, monitoring systems or stronger cybersecurity for payment data.

Meanwhile, financial pressure is pushing many consumers to take risks they might normally avoid. Only 31 percent expect to spend more on gifts this year, suggesting that tight budgets are pushing shoppers toward steep discounts and unfamiliar online sellers. That desire for bargains has a cost: 42 percent of men and nearly a third of women say they would purchase from a site they’ve never heard of if the deal was compelling enough. Temptation fuels vulnerability, making scams and fraudulent sites more effective at a time when shoppers are more focused on savings than verification.

With budgets stretched and more consumers modifying their traditions, every purchase carries a little more weight. Losing a gift to theft, fraud or delivery issues isn’t just frustrating—it represents money carefully saved and spent. This year’s Holiday Security Sentiment Index suggests that the season has two priorities: what people buy, and how safe they feel buying it.

The findings are based on a nationwide survey of 1,000 adults conducted ahead of the 2025 holiday season. Participants were asked how worries about theft, scams and personal safety are influencing where they shop, how much they spend and what precautions they take at home and in stores. Responses were analyzed across age groups, gender and income to identify emerging trends that link security and spending behavior.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 05:45

The Trans-Siberian Railway Is Poised To Play A Pivotal Role In Joint Russian-US Projects

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Unlocking this mutually profitable opportunity requires the US to first successfully manage the Turkish-Russian tensions in Central Asia that it’s responsible for exacerbating through TRIPP.

The US’ management of Turkish-Russian tensions in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, which was proposed here as part of a larger NATO-Russian Non-Aggression Pact, could lead to the merger of its planned rare earth mineral (REM) investments in Central Asia and related post-Ukraine joint projects in Russia. Regarding the first, Trump clinched such deals with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan during the latest C5+1 Summit in DC, while the second were described by the Wall Street Journal in a recent report.

If Turkish-Russian tensions worsen in Central Asia and the Ukrainian Conflict continues raging, thus delaying the US’ joint REM projects in Russia, then the US will be fully dependent on Turkiye for importing its REMs from Central Asia. That’s because the Afghan and Iranian routes are unviable for security and political reasons, so the only realistic one is from Turkiye, the western anchor of the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) across Armenia to Azerbaijan and Central Asia.

TRIPP will gradually replace Russia’s regional influence with Turkish-led Western influence, but this will also turbocharge Turkiye’s rise as a Eurasian Great Power, which might empower it to defy the US even more than it already does. The forms that this could take include cooperating more closely with China in Central Asia to break the US’ planned containment of the latter, funding more (possibly US terrorist-designated) Muslim Brotherhood chapters, and weaponizing its pivotal role in TRIPP to blackmail the US.

These dark scenarios can be averted if the US manages Turkish-Russian tensions and brokers an end to the Ukrainian Conflict. In that event, the US could diversify from its dependence on TRIPP and therefore Turkiye for importing its REMs from Central Asia by relying on Russia’s nearby Trans-Siberian Railway (TSR), which can conveniently deliver these resources to Vladivostok from where they can then be shipped to the US’ Californian tech hub. This can then lead to the merger of its two REM investments.

Not only would joint REM projects with Russia be unlocked, but the same US companies investing in Central Asian ones could then more easily scale their regional operations northward, with resources from both projects being shipped to the Pacific via the TSR. The increased logistical and resource importance of Siberia and the Russian Far East for the US could then lay the basis for more joint projects there and in the neighboring Arctic, thus advancing Putin’s master development plan for these regions.

The US and others who invest in Mongolia’s mineral sector might also begin rerouting exports through the TSR instead of continuing to rely on the US’ systemic Chinese rival. The gradual result could be the creation of complex strategic interdependence between the US and Russia, which was non-existent prior to the special operation, for reducing the risk of another crisis. The US would also establish a strategic economic presence along China’s western and northern peripheries that could be flaunted for prestige.

Amidst the Sino-US rivalry, the US has an interest in obtaining access to Russian resources that ipso facto denies them to China, whose superpower trajectory would be turbocharged by unlimited access at bargain-basement prices like would otherwise be the case without robust US competition. This makes the proposed arrangement of grand strategic importance to the US, which is why it should broker an end to the Ukrainian Conflict and then manage Turkish-Russian tensions in Central Asia without delay.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 05:00

Chinese Drone "Mothership" Capable Of Swarm Attack Takes Flight

Whether launched from shipping containers, robotic arms, commercial box trucks, or delivered by heavyweight jet-powered mothership drones, the creativity of military technology developers in designing and deploying loitering-munition swarms has been remarkable to watch.

The latest piece of military hardware to hit our radar is China's Jiutian ("Nine Heavens") unmanned aerial mothership, capable of hauling up to six tons of guided bombs, air-to-air and anti-ship missiles, or entire racks of kamikaze drones.

Jiutian's internal bay can deploy up to 100 kamikaze drones for a saturation-swarm attack, flying in coordinated patterns to strike targets simultaneously and overwhelm defenses.

Jiutian was first revealed at the air show in Zhuhai, in China's southern Guangdong province near the border with Macau, last year. Now footage has surfaced of the mothership drone taking off for the first time.

The short footage on Weibo (11 December 2025) pic.twitter.com/yYm5MtU5vZ

— Dragon Wong 黄龙 (@DragonWong2024) December 11, 2025

Military and defense-related:

• Did China Trigger A "DeepSeek Moment" In Hypersonic Missiles 

Remember one year ago when New Jersey Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a Republican, speculated the mysterious drone sightings in the Northeast U.S. could be coming from an Iranian "mothership"... 

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 04:15

Battle For Rare Earths And Recognition: Germany's Wadephul Arrives In China As A Supplicant

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

After German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul was forced to cancel his October trip to China due to a lack of scheduled meetings, he has now finally met with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. At the center of the talks was one issue with immense strategic weight for Germany and Europe: the future handling of critical raw materials—above all rare earths.

The relationship between Germany and the EU on the one hand and China’s political leadership on the other is clearly creaking. The growing trade tensions between both sides have become impossible to ignore.

In October, rising diplomatic friction culminated in China’s export halt on rare earth elements.

Rare earths, put simply, are a foundational pillar of modern industrial production and high-end technology. Without them, production stalls—and China’s sudden export freeze sent shockwaves through the executive floors of German industry, especially the automakers, prompting warnings of immediate production shutdowns.

Raw Materials and China’s Leverage in Ukraine

Pressure was therefore immense ahead of Wadephul’s visit. His originally planned trip had been scrapped after Beijing denied him meetings with the key ministers he needed—his counterpart Wang Yi and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao. It was a humiliation that exposed the real power imbalance between Berlin and Beijing.

Wadephul also witnessed firsthand that Beijing is deadly serious about using its geopolitical levers—partly as a way to counter U.S. tariffs and rising trade pressure.

Europe is trapped: on the one hand, it suffers from China’s dumping exports that hollow out European industry. On the other hand, it relies heavily on Chinese rare earths, 90% of which are refined and exported under Chinese licensing authority.

Second Attempt

Thus, on December 8 and 9, the German delegation attempted a second round of engagement with Beijing. Central to the agenda: access to rare earths, chips, raw materials—and China’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine. Wadephul described the exchanges as “open and intensive,” with progress on economic issues and some signs of de-escalation in the raw materials dispute. He insisted it had been wise to pause, regroup, and attempt talks once more—talks that should also help pave the way for the German Chancellor’s upcoming visit.

Berlin wants to stay engaged, possibly even through a broader European mission, in order to shore up supply security for its industrial base.

But a genuine thaw between Berlin, Brussels, and Beijing remains nowhere in sight. Wadephul’s vague assessment that Beijing, like Germany, was interested in “serious and concrete” dialogue remains noncommittal.

For now, Wadephul leaves with Beijing’s signal that export licenses for rare earths may be issued more readily. But he emphasized that much work remains before supply can be considered truly secure.

China and the U.S. Play Their Cards

Germany imports around two-thirds of its rare earths from China. For key magnet metals—like neodymium, praseodymium, and samarium—the dependence is nearly total. The EU’s strategy to reduce this dependency remains limited to recycling and attempts at building partnerships in South America—none of which have delivered meaningful results.

China’s licensing strategy mirrors Washington’s latest move in the chip war. The U.S. this week unveiled a model under which Nvidia’s H200 chips may be exported to China—provided Beijing pays a 25% levy.

Both superpowers are ruthlessly leveraging their strategic advantages to reorder global trade and secure long-term dominance.

Brussels, meanwhile, must bend, concede, and build new trade alliances. The EU’s failure—after years of talks—to finalize the Mercosur agreement shows Brussels’ inability to compromise, tripping over its own feet even in an area of existential importance.

Europe Caught Between Weakness and Geopolitical Pressure

Brussels and Berlin would have been wise to realign strategically with Washington, drop their resentment toward President Trump, accept U.S. frameworks, and leverage America’s geopolitical umbrella for their own advantage. Europe’s resource and energy dependency is fast becoming its Achilles heel in this global contest for power, markets, and influence.

This makes Wadephul’s largely fruitless visit all the more troubling—German industry is desperate for clarity on rare earth supply security.

It may also have been tactically unwise for Wadephul to press Beijing to use its influence on Moscow and bring Russia back to the negotiating table over Ukraine. Beijing surely noticed that it has been European governments, not China, who have opposed any negotiation track with maximalist rigidity.

In contrast to most assessments of this unimpressive trip, Reuters reported that China may offer priority access to rare earths for European manufacturers as part of a supply-chain stabilization effort. Diversion tactic—or a genuine first step toward rapprochement? The coming weeks will tell.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 03:30

Who's Glued To The 'Telly'?

The United Kingdom has a particularly strong culture of television viewership.

As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, according to a survey by Statista Consumer Insights, almost a third of UK respondents watch at least 11 hours of television per week.

You will find more infographics at Statista

This is slightly higher than other European nations such as France at 29 percent, or Germany at 28 percent.

By contrast, China has a far lower share of heavy TV users, at just 16 percent.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 02:45

Brussels Bureaucrats Push For Expanded Legal Migration Routes Into Europe To Help Those Who 'Dream Of A Better Life'

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The European Union must expand legal migration channels and intensify pressure on the criminal networks behind illegal border crossings, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday at a global migration conference in Brussels.

Von der Leyen argued that creating structured, regulated routes into the EU is essential if the bloc wants to reduce reliance on smuggling networks.

“We must open more safe pathways, legal pathways to Europe,” she said, urging closer cooperation between Europe and partner countries, including the G7.

“We must make sure that people can find a job where their talent is needed … bring skills across our borders.”

The Commission president highlighted the EU’s new “talent partnerships” — arrangements that allow non-EU citizens to work legally in Europe — saying five countries have already joined and that Brussels hopes more will follow.

She said a newly established “talent pool” would match European employers with qualified workers from outside the bloc, with a pilot “gateway office” in India launching to help jobseekers access legal routes.

If successful, she said, it could become “a blueprint for partnership with other countries.”

NEW - Ursula von der Leyen says that to prevent illegal border crossings, "we must open more safe and legal pathways to Europe," and announces, as part of the new "talent partnerships," an office opening in India to connect European employers with non-European jobseekers. pic.twitter.com/UMnxqKIKSc

— Disclose.tv (@disclosetv) December 10, 2025

She portrayed these initiatives as beneficial to both Europe and partner states through developing skills, creating opportunities, and keeping young people engaged. “By working in partnerships, we have found safe alternatives to the lethal criminal smuggling networks,” she added.

Alongside legal pathways, von der Leyen announced a significant escalation in the EU’s enforcement strategy. Brussels is preparing a new sanctions regime aimed directly at migrant smugglers and the financial channels that sustain them. “We need stronger legal tools to dismantle this criminal business,” she said. “This is why Europe is developing a stringent new sanctions regime against smugglers … Our goal is simple. We want to bankrupt their businesses through all means available.”

The Commission chief said the measures could include travel bans and asset seizures, developed in coordination with G7 partners. She argued that migrants who enter the EU illegally often fall prey to “networks of modern slavery,” and said that expanding legal migration routes was essential to cutting these groups out.

The president also called for a major expansion of the EU’s border agency, Frontex, which she said should be tripled to 30,000 staff as part of wider efforts to reinforce border management and combat illegal immigration. According to von der Leyen, irregular entries have fallen by 37 percent this year, with a 26 percent decline on the most frequently used routes.

Her remarks came amid continued controversy over the EU’s recently adopted Asylum and Migration Pact, which includes faster procedures for returning people without authorization to stay and a mandatory solidarity mechanism. Under the system, member states must accept relocated migrants or make a “solidarity payment” of €20,000 per person if they refuse. Hungary, Slovakia, and Czechia have all declared their opposition, while countries such as Poland will receive temporary adjustments to their quotas due to the high number of Ukrainian refugees already hosted.

Von der Leyen acknowledged the political challenges but said the EU’s overarching principle must remain clear: “Europeans decide who crosses the borders and under what conditions, not the smugglers.”

“We all have one common goal,” she told delegates.

“The common goal is to drive the smugglers out of business. To save the lives of thousands of people who dream of a better life.”

At no point in her speech did she mention the effect that illegal immigration has on European citizens. She did not refer to the disproportionate percentage of crimes committed by migrants across the bloc, nor the plummeting levels of security felt among citizens.

Instead, she told attendees, “We must create more bridges between our continents. We must make sure that people can find a job where their talent is needed, match the skills, and bring skills across our borders.”

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 02:00

NYT Editorial Board Urges US To Prepare For Future War With China

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The New York Times editorial board released a video this week calling for the US to "prepare for the future of war" and urged the Pentagon to take drastic steps to be better prepared for a potential fight with China, a conflict that could quickly turn nuclear.

"US politicians often boast that America has the ‘Strongest and most powerful military in the history of the world’ but behind closed doors, they’re being told a different story," the editorial board said. "New York Times Opinion has learned that the Pentagon has been delivering a classified, comprehensive overview of US military power called the Overmatch brief. The report shows what could happen if a war were to break out between China and the United States. The results are alarming."

The video said that a war with China might seem "purely hypothetical," but claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping ordered the Chinese military to be ready to seize the island of Taiwan by 2027. However, that timeline is based on claims from the CIA and has never been confirmed by Chinese officials. Xi reportedly told President Biden last year that there were "no such plans" to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.

US Navy image

The Times editorial board said that defending Taiwan “won’t be easy” and called on the US to invest more in new technologies, such as drones, rather than “symbols of might,” referring to large aircraft and warships.

“America must prepare for the future of war. This is the opinion of The New York Times editorial board. You might be thinking America should focus on peace, not war. But one of the most effective ways to prevent a war is to be strong enough to win it. That’s why it’s imperative that we change,” the board said.

The board suggested several steps for the US to take to prepare for war with China, including building “new autonomous weapons and leading the world in controlling them” and relaxing rules on purchasing weapons to “make bets on young companies.”

The video comes after Congress unveiled a $901 billion National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) that, when added to a supplemental spending bill passed earlier this year, will bring the official US military budget to over $1 trillion.

“It’s been nearly 10 years since the Overmatch brief was first delivered. Its warnings have been updated and delivered again to the new Trump administration. We’ve been warned about the urgent need for change. The question is whether we’ll change in time,” the video concluded.

This refers to this NYT story (https://t.co/rdFRYttqF9) in which they reveal there now exists an "overmatch brief" at the Pentagon that details China vs US military power. The name says it all...

Apparently when a senior US official read the brief he “turned pale” as he realized… https://t.co/fJBKMKzR08

— Arnaud Bertrand (@RnaudBertrand) December 11, 2025

For years now, the Pentagon has named China as the top “pacing threat” facing the US and has been openly preparing for war with China. President Trump’s War Department is expected to prioritize the Homeland and the Western Hemisphere in its coming National Defense Strategy, as outlined by the recently released National Security Strategy, but it will still be putting a focus on a military buildup in the Asia Pacific to get ready for a future clash with China, while stressing that US allies in the region should spend more on their militaries.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 23:25

Gaming The System: Huge Proportion Of 'Elite' University Students Claiming Disabilities

Just when you thought the ongoing cultivation of weakness in American youth couldn't get much worse, huge proportions of the student bodies at US universities are enrolling with official disability designations that bestow various accommodations upon the students who claim them. As you may have expected, the alarming trend is most pronounced at what are supposed to be the most "elite" institutions. 

We're not talking about people in wheelchairs, but rather students snagging diagnoses for ADHD, anxiety and depression from indulgent doctors. "It’s rich kids getting extra time on tests," an un-tenured professor at a selective university told The Atlantic's Rose Horowitch. Apparently fearing backlash, he requested anonymity. 

The numbers are jarring. Harvard and Brown's undergraduate student body is 20% "disabled." Amherst has hit 34%, while Stanford's disability rate is a head-shaking 38%. At one unidentified law school, 45% of students have been awarded academic accommodations. In stark contrast, only 3 to 4% of students at public two-year colleges get disability accommodations. 

"Obviously, something is off here," observes Emma Camp at Reason. "The idea that some of the most elite, selective universities in America—schools that require 99th percentile SATs and sterling essays—would be educating large numbers of genuinely learning disabled students is clearly bogus."

Disabled students are often given time-and-a-half or double-time to finish a test, and the freedom to turn in papers well beyond the given due date. However, extra time isn't the only benefit. At Carnegie-Mellon, a social-anxiety disorder can ensure a student isn't called upon by a professor without advance notice.

Schools also let supposedly learning-disabled students take tests in "reduced distraction testing environments," as being in a room with 80 other people is apparently just too taxing for them. However, a University of Chicago professor told the Atlantic that a deluge of students taking tests in the "reduced distraction testing environments" means those rooms are pretty much as "distracting" as a conventional classroom supposedly is.   

In what may be the most darkly amusing accommodation, a public college in California allowed a student to bring her mother to class -- which backfired when the mother went beyond whatever role she was expected to play and eagerly participated in the discussions, tuition-free.  

Professor Paul Graham Fisher, who'd previously co-chaired Stanford's disability task force, told the Atlantic:   

“I have had conversations with people in the Stanford administration. They’ve talked about at what point can we say no? What if it hits 50 or 60 percent? At what point do you just say ‘We can’t do this’?”

 

Plenty of these students are likely motivated by a cut-throat desire to gain advantage. However, equally bad, it's possible a majority of these students sincerely consider themselves disabled. "Over the past few years, there's been a rising push to see mental health and neurodevelopmental conditions as not just a medical fact, but an identity marker," writes Reason's Camp, who notes that social media and other factors foster a rush to attribute common human fallibilities as some kind of medical condition. "The result is a deeply distorted view of 'normal,'" says Camp. "If ever struggling to focus or experiencing boredom is a sign you have ADHD, the implication is that a 'normal,' nondisabled person has essentially no problems." 

The disability rush isn't limited to elite college campuses. High school students are using disability designations to score extra time on SAT and ACT tests. "We are also well aware of fliers in the district circulating among parents of doctors in the area who are known to hand out ADHD diagnoses," a high school teacher at an affluent public school told We Are Teachers. "In some cases, I think what’s happening is a pay-to-play situation.”

And the decline of the West proceeds apace...

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 23:00

FDA Investigating Deaths Potentially Linked To COVID-19 Vaccines Across Age Ranges

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is looking into the potential links between COVID-19 vaccination and deaths in various age groups, according to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS).

A nurse holds a COVID-19 vaccine in Miami, Fla., in this undated file photograph. Joe Raedle/Getty Images

The FDA investigation is being carried out as part of a safety review, a HHS spokesperson said on Dec. 9.

The probe follows a Nov. 28 memo by Dr. Vinay Prasad, director of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research (CBER), which revealed that COVID-19 vaccines were likely implicated in the deaths of at least 10 children.

The spokesperson did not provide details on which age groups will be covered or what criteria the FDA will use to determine which cases fall within the scope of the investigation.

Data published by the World Health Organization showed that more than 700 million COVID-19 vaccine doses have been administered in the United States since December 2020.

The Epoch Times reached out to the HHS for further comment, but did not hear back by publication time.

Prasad said in the memo that the findings were based on a review of 96 death reports voluntarily submitted to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) between 2021 and 2024. The memo did not disclose the health conditions of the children or the vaccine manufacturers involved.

“If anything, this represents conservative coding, where vaccines are exculpated rather than indicted in cases of ambiguity. The real number is higher,” he stated in the memo. “This is a profound revelation.”

Prasad, head of the FDA’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, was one of the early opponents of keeping COVID-19 vaccines available for younger people. He has has supported COVID-19 vaccination for seniors and younger people with underlying conditions.

The investigation was spurred by concerns that the previous administration misled the public about harms COVID-19 vaccines can cause, including myocarditis, or heart inflammation, Prasad indicated in the memo.

The memo states that the FDA never required manufacturers to demonstrate—through randomized controlled trials—that vaccinating children reduced hospitalization or death. Available data, Prasad wrote, are deeply limited, rely on methods with notorious biases, and fail to establish whether the vaccine saved more children than it harmed.

Prasad criticized common assertions that COVID-19 infection posed a greater myocarditis risk than vaccination, saying that this claim is wrong, that existing studies use “a false denominator,” and fail to evaluate risk-benefit trade-offs for healthy adolescents and young adults.

“Finally, the FDA has failed to properly enforce many required post market commitments for COVID-19 vaccines, including for pregnant women and to document subclinical myocarditis,” he wrote.

Prasad said that CBER will take swift action on the safety concerns and will no longer grant marketing authorization for vaccines in pregnant women based on “unproven” surrogate antibody endpoints.

He added that the agency will shift vaccine regulation toward evidence-based standards and revise its annual flu vaccine framework.

Tom Ozimek, Zachary Stieber and Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 22:35

Jordan Peterson Out Of Hospital But Still "Very Unwell", Daughter Says

Authored by Jennifer Cowan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Canadian psychologist and public speaker Jordan Peterson is continuing to fight an uphill battle with his health but has returned home after spending several months in the hospital, his daughter says.

Author, media commentator, and clinical psychologist Jordan Peterson addresses the 5th Demographic Summit in the Fine Arts Museum in Budapest on Sept. 14, 2023. Attila Kisbenedek/AFP via Getty Images

Mikhaila Peterson shared an update on social media this week—her first since October—to announce her father’s return home after spending time in an intensive care unit this fall, where he was treated for pneumonia and sepsis. Those conditions appeared after mold exposure this summer led to a “severe” flare-up of a chronic illness he has been battling since 2017, she said.

Specialists are continuing to work on determining the underlying cause of his illness and are considering a complex array of possibilities from neurological, to autoimmune, to a mixture of both.

Mikhaila said no answers have emerged thus far and he remains “very unwell.”

“I’m hopeful he will recover with time,” she said in a Dec. 9 video post. “When I posted the last video, I didn’t know if he would recover at all. It was really scary and I’m hopeful now, but it’s still early on.”

Her father’s prognosis remains uncertain, but Mikhaila said she is hopeful he is on the road to recovery.

“Things are really bad, but they’re not as bad as they were a month ago or two months ago,” she said.

Mikhaila first announced her father’s health crisis in an August social media post, saying he had been forced to postpone his podcasts and reschedule his European tour due to a “severe” onset of symptoms she said is linked to chronic inflammatory response syndrome (CIRS).

“Jordan Peterson is taking some time off of everything,” she wrote in an Aug. 13 X post, saying he has a “genetic predisposition” that results in the immune system’s inability to detect and detoxify mould or bacteria in indoor air.

She noted that her father has been battling CIRS since 2017, but the family didn’t know what the problem was at the time. CIRS is a long-term condition triggered by exposure to biotoxins in water-damaged buildings that can result in a variety of debilitating symptoms such as fatigue, brain fog, and changes in appetite, according to the National Library of Medicine.

She said his struggles with the condition had intensified over the past year but a recent large mould exposure while helping to clean out her grandfathers’ basement had pushed his symptoms over the edge.

He was taken to the hospital by ambulance later that same month and Mikhaila said in an October social media post that her father had spent nearly a month in the ICU before being moved to “a less urgent floor.”

The family was unable to communicate with Peterson throughout the majority of September, his daughter said in a video accompanying the post. He was diagnosed with critical illness polyneuropathy (CIP) toward the end of his bout with pneumonia. CIP is nerve damage causing severe, symmetrical weakness in critically ill patients, a common complication from sepsis.

Peterson’s situation is further complicated by his inability to take most medications without experiencing “severe paradoxical reactions,” thereby restricting his treatment options, his daughter said.

Stressful Time

Mikhaila said her father’s increased health issues came during a stressful period for her family after she struggled with a difficult pregnancy and then her infant daughter fell ill in June. The six-week-old Audrey suffered a nearly fatal episode of heart failure in June and was then hospitalized again just hours after her father was taken to the hospital in August.

The married mom of three said Audrey is now seven months old and doing “really well” after suffering what now appears to be a “one off freak incident that hasn’t repeated.”

Between her youngest daughter’s health scares and her dad’s condition the 33-year-old has been mostly offline for several months, saying she was feeling “too stressed out” to keep up with The Mikhaila Peterson Podcast.

“I wish things would just go back to normal, but they’re not there yet,” she said in her most recent video update. “Thank you so much for your prayers. We need them. I'll let you guys know as soon as I can if anything changes, hopefully he’s on the road to recovery.”

Peterson, professor emeritus at the University of Toronto in psychology, rose to fame through his YouTube lectures, his successful self-help book, “12 Rules for Life: An Antidote to Chaos,” and his criticism of the federal government’s Bill C-16, which added the protection of gender identity and expression to the Human Rights Code and Criminal Code. The bill received royal assent in June 2017.

The author announced last December his relocation to the United States due to his regulatory battles with the College of Psychologists and Behaviour Analysts of Ontario (CPBAO), also citing the political climate in Canada. He and his wife settled in Arizona, where his daughter resides with her family.

The CPBAO, the governing body for psychologists in Ontario, ordered him in 2022 to undergo social media training for comments he made online about a plus-sized model, transgender actor Elliot Page, and a number of politicians.

The well-known author refuted the college’s assertions, saying his comments were not expressed in his professional capacity as a clinical psychologist.

Peterson legally challenged the order but ultimately failed in his attempt after the Supreme Court of Canada chose not to hear his case last summer and dismissed it “with costs.” He had promised in a column earlier that year not only to dive into the social media training prescribed by the college if he lost the case, but to “publicize every single bit of it.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 21:45

US Solar Installations Soar As Developers Rush To Secure Tax Credits

The U.S. solar market saw a significant jump in capacity installations in the third quarter as developers ramp up activity and construction to qualify for the last investment tax credits that are being phased out by the Trump Administration.

As OilPrice reported, the industry added 11.7 gigawatts direct current (GWdc) of solar power capacity in the third quarter of 2025, up by 20% from a year earlier and a massive 49% surge compared to the second quarter. That was the third-largest quarter for deployment in the industry’s history, the Solar Energy Industries Association (SEIA) and Wood Mackenzie said in the U.S. Solar Market Insight Q4 2025 report.  

 

After the tumult caused by the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) in the summer, the robust third quarter largely reflects utility-scale solar projects that were mostly complete in the second quarter, the report noted.

Under the Trump Administration’s OBBBA, wind and solar projects must begin construction no later than July 4, 2026, to qualify for Investment Tax Credit (ITC) or Production Tax Credit (PTC). Projects that miss this deadline must be fully placed in service by December 31, 2027, to remain eligible for tax credits.

While utility-scale solar installations hit a third-quarter record, the federal permitting freeze presents uncertainty and risk to the industry going forward, SEIA and WoodMac said.

Still, one thing seems certain: the earlier a project could come online or meet the legal requirements for “starting construction,” the better. As a result, Wood Mackenzie predicted there would be a rush of activity to execute on well-positioned projects.

Despite the assault on renewable energy, solar and storage accounted for 85% of all new power added to the grid in the first nine months of the Trump Administration, SEIA said.

A total of 73% of all solar capacity installed this year has been built in states won by President Trump, including 8 of the top 10 states for new installations: Texas, Indiana, Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Utah, Kentucky, and Arkansas.  

Despite the remarkable growth so far, “unless this administration reverses course, the future of clean, affordable, and reliable solar and storage will be frozen by uncertainty and Americans will continue to see their energy bills go up,” SEIA president and CEO Abigail Ross Hopper said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 12/11/2025 - 21:20