Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $61.4 billion in August, from $78.3 billion in July.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of October 28-29

Japan Bond Yields Soar To Record, Slamming Door On Stimulus Just As Economy Implodes Amid Escalating China Clash

Back in 2024, it was the story of the summer, but now with a relentless waterfall of news stressing traders - and that excludes the hourly blasts from Trump's truth social account - it has become impossible to filter the firehose of newsflow, let alone trade it. 

Which is why some may have missed the big store of the night which is that Japanese yields are once again breaking out in the back of the curve, with new cycle highs in the 20yr and 40yr weighing on sentiment and risk, and sending the Nikkei not only back below 50K, but below 49K, down 7% from the local record high hit on Halloween.

And with the recent surge in yields, driven by new PM Takaichi's plans for a fresh stimulus boost (see "Japan ruling-party panel proposes $161 billion extra budget to fund stimulus"), now that the country is basically back in recession after the catastrophic Q3 GDP print which tied for the second worst since covid...

... any plans for fiscal stimulus now are hard to square with the limits of the bond market according to Goldman's Delta-One head Rich Privorotsky. 

But while bond vigilantes may not allow Japan to spend on a fiscal stimulus, it may have no choice but to splurge on defense, as the country's diplomatic scandal with China is rapidly deteriorating, and is set to be a rerun of the Senkaku Island East China Sea crisis from 2013, which saw almost two years of unprecedented belligernce between the two countries. 

In the latest escalation of the deepening dispute between Asia's two largest economies over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's comments on Taiwan, Japan warned its citizens in China to step up safety precautions and avoid crowded places. As we reported last week, Takaichi sparked the most serious diplomatic clash in years when she told Japanese lawmakers this month that a Chinese attack on Taiwan threatening Japan's survival could trigger a military response.

A senior Japanese official met his counterpart in Beijing on Tuesday to try and tamp down the tension, but no breakthrough appeared imminent.

China's foreign ministry said Liu Jinsong, head of the ministry's Asia affairs department, had pressed at the meeting for Takaichi to retract her remarks. But Japan's top government spokesperson, Minoru Kihara, suggested Tokyo was in no mood to do so.

The comments did "not alter the government's existing position," Kihara told a press conference on Tuesday, adding that the government hoped issues concerning Taiwan would be resolved peacefully through dialogue.

A video posted on social media by China's Communist party-run newspaper Guangming Daily showed Liu telling reporters that he was "of course dissatisfied" with the meeting, and described the atmosphere as "solemn."

A Chinese diplomat in Japan responded to Takaichi's remarks by posting a threatening comment aimed at her on social media. That drew a strong rebuke from Tokyo, though it failed to stem vitriolic commentary against her in Chinese state media. Takaichi was summoning Japan's "militarist demons", the official news agency Xinhua said in the latest such attack on Tuesday.  

In view of the media coverage in China, Japan's embassy there reminded citizens on Monday to respect local customs and take care in interactions with Chinese people.

It asked citizens to be aware of their surroundings when outdoors, telling them to not travel alone and urging extra caution when accompanying children. "If you see a person or group that looks even slightly suspicious, do not approach them and leave the area immediately," the embassy said in its notice.

The dispute will deal a harsh blow to Japan's already reeling economy, as Beijing has urged its citizens not to travel there. Chinese form the largest number of all tourists to Japan, accounting for nearly a quarter, official figures show. Tourism-related stocks in Japan plunged on the news.

More than 10 Chinese airlines, such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines, have offered refunds on Japan-bound routes until December 31, while Sichuan Airlines has cancelled plans for a Chengdu-Sapporo route until at least March, state media said.

Film distributors have also suspended the screening of at least two Japanese films in China, a step state broadcaster CCTV hailed on Monday as a "prudent decision" reflecting souring domestic sentiment. Screening of some Japanese films originally set for release in coming weeks, such as the animated "Crayon Shin-chan the Movie: Super Hot! Scorching Kasukabe Dancers" and manga-turned-movie "Cells at Work!" will not begin in mainland China as scheduled, it added, citing industry checks.

Apart from tourism, Japan is heavily dependent on China for supply of critical minerals used in items from electronics to cars. 

"If we rely too heavily on a country that resorts to economic coercion the moment something displeases it, that creates risks not only for supply chains but also for tourism," Japan's economic security minister, Kimi Onoda, told a press conference on Tuesday.

"We need to recognise that it's dangerous to be economically dependent on somewhere that poses such risks," she added, responding to a question about China's calls for its citizens to avoid travel to Japan.

Japan's Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa said there had been no particular changes yet in China's export control measures on rare earths and other materials. The heads of Japan's three business federations met Takaichi late on Monday and urged dialogue to resolve the diplomatic tension.

"Political stability is a prerequisite for economic exchange," Yoshinobu Tsutsui, chairman of Japan's biggest business lobby Keidanren, told reporters after the meeting, media said.

Meanwhile, sensing blood in the water, China is prepared to instigate a rerun of the Senkaku crisis from a decade ago. On Sunday, Chinese coast guard ships sailed through waters around a group of East China Sea islands controlled by Japan but claimed by China. Japan's coast guard said it drove the Chinese ships away.

The United States does not formally recognise the islands, known as Senkaku in Tokyo and the Diaoyu in Beijing, as Japanese sovereign territory. Since 2014 it has said it would be obliged by the Japan-U.S. security treaty to defend them if they were attacked, however.

"In case anyone was in doubt, the United States is fully committed to the defence of Japan, which includes the Senkaku Islands, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, George Glass, said on X. "And formations of Chinese coast guard ships won’t change that."

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a press conference on Tuesday that Glass's remarks were a "political show with ulterior motives".

This week's G20 summit in South Africa offered a possible forum to help ease tension, but China said its premier had no plans to meet Takaichi.

Kihara said nothing has been decided about two-way meetings during G20, but Japan remains open to holding "various dialogues" with China. Japan's refusal to retract its statements meant its de-escalatory efforts had failed to mollify Beijing, said Allen Carlson, an expert on China's foreign policy at Cornell University.

"As a result, the two countries now stand on a knife’s edge."

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 17:20

Michelle Obama Says She Won't Run Because America "Ain't Ready" For A Woman

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Former First Lady Michelle Obama bluntly rejected calls that she run for office because America “ain’t ready” for a woman president. 

Obama made the remarks Friday in a YouTube interview with actress Tracee Ellis Ross while promoting her new book, The Look.

The interview touched on the first lady’s role as an archetype of “wifedom and femininity,” before Obama veered into a tangent on broader cultural issues and the 2024 election. 

“Do you think that impacts the room that we’ve made for a woman to be president?” Ross asked.

Obama then replied, “As we saw in this past election, sadly, we ain’t ready,” before addressing individuals trying to recruit her for a run. 

“That’s why I’m like, don’t even look at me about running because you all are lying,” she added.

“You’re not ready for a woman. You are not! So don’t waste my time. We’ve got a lot of growing up to do and there’s still, and sadly, a lot of men who do not feel like they can be led by a woman and we saw it.” 

Obama then turned to Ross and sarcastically asked, “What was the question?” prompting laughter from the audience.

NEW: Michelle Obama says she isn't going to run for president because she doesn't want to waste her time because America "ain't ready."

Tracee Ellis Ross: How do you feel about the fact that the First Lady is an archetype for wifedom and femininity?

Obama: I don't agree with… pic.twitter.com/e03xKMIOvE

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 15, 2025

Obama has long been viewed as a potential presidential candidate since leaving the White House in 2017. 

Her remarks also come as the Democratic Party has lost two of the last three presidential elections after nominating flawed women candidates.  

Hillary Clinton ran in 2015 amid sinking popularity and mounting criminal scandals. In 2024, the party nominated then-Vice President Kamala Harris without holding a primary, despite abysmal approval ratings. 

In both cases, Democrats were quick to blame misogyny and racism for their losses. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 17:00

NGO-Backed Groups Train To Obstruct Immigration Arrests In North Carolina

It has been said over and over again the past few months:  Progressive activist groups sabotaging ICE operations are far too organized to be grassroots and always seem to know exactly where immigration authorities are going to show up and make arrests.  Someone is creating these mobs from thin air, training them, funding them and letting them off their leash to attack when the opportunity is presented. 

The establishment media consistently runs interference for these networks, insisting the protests are grassroots and completely spontaneous. 

One such case of propaganda is the Rachel Maddow Show on MSNOW (formerly MSNBC) and their coverage of training camps organized in Charlotte, North Carolina as federal immigration officers arrive on the ground to arrest illegal migrants. 

As we have seen across the country, anti-ICE mobs have followed a near identical playbook of disruption, provocation, sabotage, stalking of agents, blocking roads and creating general chaos in order to impede the arrests.  In some cases, direct violence is used when activists think they can get away with it.  These tactics have been employed extensively in Chicago in the past month.

Disruption groups threaten the safety of ICE agents, creating the necessity for the deployment of the National Guard, which Democrats then call "authoritarianism".

The training is rarely covered by the media, and when it is, they paint it as "communities coming together" and "protecting their neighbors".  In reality, these groups garner millions in funds from far-left and globalist NGOs.  Arrested activists who commit trespassing, obstruction or violence often enjoy funds set aside by NGOs for legal defense and bail, putting them back on the streets within hours.  They are the furthest thing from "grassroots."    

The "Defend and Recruit" organization involved in these training sessions is a front group for an NGO called Siembre NC which has been in operation since 2017 (when Trump first entered office).  Just as globalist NGO's pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into BLM organizations and practically bankrolled the the national BLM riots, they are also funding anti-ICE groups.

According to IRS tax filings, Siembre NC has received millions of dollars from other NGO's including George Soros' Open Society Foundation, ActBlue, dark money group Sixteen Thirty Fund, Hewlett foundation and they are also under investigation for possibly receiving indirect funding from the Chinese CCP. 

This year, congressional investigations (led by figures like Kash Patel) probed $34 million in federal/state grants to anti-ICE NGOs, including Siembra NC affiliates. Allegations include misuse for doxxing ICE agents and foreign interference.  DHS has reported a 500% spike in violent attacks on ICE agents, causing these NGO's to come under scrutiny. 

Furthermore, organizations like Siembre NC were also indirectly collecting taxpayer funds sourced from institutions like USAID until it was shut down this year.  The conspiracy is out in the open - progressive NGOs are a fundamental threat to US border integrity and immigration enforcement.  They are so blatant in their operations that they proudly display their training on media platforms like MSNOW.   

Without these NGOs, the anti-deportation protests would most likely disappear. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 16:40

Adam Smith Vs The Engineers Of Utopia

Authored by Mani Basharzad via CapX.co,

Ha-Joon Chang recently wrote an article in the Financial Times criticising the state of economic education, which drew considerable attention. What went almost unnoticed, however, was a letter published in response. Surprisingly, one of the most prominent Austrian economists, Mario Rizzo, agreed with Chang. He wrote:

“Recently, I had a chance to look at some exams in undergraduate economics courses, including the first course, generally called ‘Principles.’ What I saw was disturbing. The students were given, mainly or only, problem sets of a completely mathematical nature. The emphasis was on mechanical problem-solving. There were no questions involving critical reflection on the ideas or frameworks taught.”

What explains this unlikely agreement between two economists from opposite schools of thought? The simple answer is that there is something wrong with economic education. But the deeper problem lies not in what is taught, but how it is taught.

Let’s go back to one of the most influential economics books ever written—a book on the scale of J.M. Keynes’s “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” or Alfred Marshall’s “Principles of Economics”—“Economics” by Paul Samuelson. It became one of the bestselling textbooks of all time, making a fortune for its author. But more important than its commercial success was its intellectual influence, prompting Samuelson to declare: “I don’t care who writes a nation’s laws, if I can write its economics textbooks.” He was right. He is, in Keynes’s phrase, the “defunct economist” still shaping how we think. What truly mattered about his book was how it redefined the economist’s role.

Samuelson wrote: “No immutable ‘wave of the future’ washes us down ‘the road to serfdom,’ or to utopia. Where the complex economic conditions of life necessitate social coordination and planning, sensible men of good will can be expected to invoke the authority and creative activity of government.” In Samuelson’s world, the economist’s task is to assist the “men of good will” in government to solve social problems. Deirdre McCloskey captures this mindset best in her memoirs, recalling that when she studied for her Ph.D. at Harvard, her classmates all imagined they would go to Washington to “fine-tune” the economy.

Economic education since then has trained students to see themselves as assistants to these “men of good will,” solving technical equations for equilibrium and absorbing the idea that economics is an engineering problem rather than a coordination problem. Engineering problems deal with optimal solutions and data, but coordination problems deal with trade-offs and dispersed knowledge.

As Peter Boettke argues, in a world where all means and ends are known, the only task left is an engineering one. That is, essentially, what students learn in Econ 101—a world of perfect knowledge, known preferences, known prices, and calculable costs, where solving equations yields all the answers. But the real wisdom of economics lies in understanding deviations from this perfection.

This is where it gets tricky. Economists like Ha-Joon Chang criticise the field because perfection doesn’t exist, and therefore they deem the models useless. But economists such as Frank Knight and Friedrich Hayek also start from the assumption of perfection—yet they do not stop there. They recognise the significance of market institutions precisely because we live in an imperfect world.

The market is one of humanity’s greatest achievements for dealing with imperfection. In a world of perfect knowledge, markets would be meaningless. But in the real world, prices perform a miracle—they coordinate millions of decisions and “get Paris fed” without a central planner. Knight begins “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit” by imagining a world without risk, uncertainty, or profit, and then shows how markets function when those elements exist.

The problem is not perfection itself, but treating it as a policy goal for governments to achieve. In the Samuelsonian worldview, markets are full of imperfections—information asymmetries, externalities, monopolies and so on—but government is seen as perfect. The economist’s role then becomes helping the state reach that imagined perfection. Perfection, in this mindset, ceases to be a theoretical tool and becomes a political mission. That is what is wrong with economics education. Perfection is a means of understanding the market’s value, not a utopia to be imposed.

This misunderstanding leads students to forget their limited knowledge about how to design human institutions. A sound economic education begins by viewing the market as a process, not a static state. It should show how our “propensity to truck, barter, and exchange” gives rise to miracles—from airplanes to iPhones—things unimaginable to those living just decades earlier. The beauty of economics lies not in trusting “men of good will” in government, but in trusting free individuals to make daily life better.

As the father of modern economics Adam Smith wrote, we should “allow every man to pursue his own interest his own way, upon the liberal plan of equality, liberty and justice.”

That hardly sounds like a “dismal” science to me.

Taught this way, economics is revealed as the story of human cooperation, with division of labour, profit, and loss guiding us toward more productive activity. But over the last half-century, Adam Smith’s optimistic science of wealth creation has become the pessimistic science of choice under scarcity. In the latter, the problem is allocation, not coordination. And when economists see their task as calculating optimal allocations, they forget “the lesson of humility which should guard ... against becoming an accomplice in men’s fatal striving to control society,” as Hayek warned.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 16:20

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

The first graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Click on graph for larger image.

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  
Imports were down 12.5% YoY in October, and exports were down 5.1% YoY.    
To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the second graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 1.2% in September compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   
Outbound traffic decreased 0.5% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.
This is the 11th consecutive month with exports down YoY.

Texas Wants To Be Reimbursed For Biden Open-Border's Cost

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Members of the Texas Congressional delegation are demanding the federal government reimburse the state for the $11.1 billion it spent tackling the Biden administration’s “open-border abdication.” 

The lawmakers, including both senators and House members, made the request Friday in a three-page letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, directly blaming the previous administration for saddling Texas with the bill. 

The Republican lawmakers pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which provides $13.5 billion in reimbursement funds to states that dealt with the massive influx of illegal aliens during former President Joe Biden’s tenure. 

“President Biden’s open-border policies imposed a substantial cost on communities in Texas, through increased fentanyl trafficking, crime, and even stress on local emergency response services,” they wrote. 

We must ensure Texas is reimbursed for the $11.1B we spent defending our state during the Biden Administration’s open-border abdication.

I signed a letter urging DOJ and DHS to repay Texas and finally confront the consequences of the border invasion unleashed on Biden’s watch. pic.twitter.com/651oL2vopY

— Congressman Brandon Gill (@RepBrandonGill) November 17, 2025

The lawmakers highlighted Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s Operation Lone Star, a statewide effort launched to secure the border “when the federal government would not.” 

Through the operation, Abbott ordered the deployment of state police to arrest individuals accused of state crimes and led the construction of new miles of border barriers and buoy defenses. 

Texas reported that at least 535,724 illegal aliens have been detained since the operation’s launch. Border crossings in Texas dropped 87 percent. 

“Texas’s actions through Operation Lone Star were absolutely vital to ensuring the safety and security of Americans across our great country,” the lawmakers wrote. “However, our State should not have had to bear alone the costs of securing the border when former President Biden intentionally failed to do so.” 

They continued, “We therefore respectfully ask that, as the Departments prepare to disburse the funds set aside in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the State of Texas be fully reimbursed for the costs incurred to protect Americans from illegal immigration and drug trafficking under former President Biden’s disastrous leadership.” 

The letter was signed by the following lawmakers: Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, along with August Pfluger, Pete Sessions, John Carter, Michael McCaul, Randy K. Weber, Roger Williams, Brian Babin, Jodey C. Arrington, Michael Cloud, Dan Crenshaw, Lance Gooden, Chip Roy, Pat Fallon, Tony Gonzales, Ronny Jackson, Troy E. Nehls, Beth Van Duyne, Jake Ellzey, Monica De La Cruz, Wesley Hunt, Morgan Luttrell, Keith Self, Brandon Gill, Nathaniel Moran and Craig Goldman. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 15:30

Two Ukrainians Working For Russian Intelligence Behind Unprecedented Rail Sabotage: Poland Claims

Warsaw authorities have now laid official blame on the sabotage attack on Poland's rail network which was uncovered Sunday, and could have led to the derailing of a train. As everyone expected, they are looking squarely at Moscow.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced Tuesday that an investigation at the scene points to two Ukrainian citizens who have "long worked for Russian intelligence" as the prime suspects in the case.

Via ABC

A train track linking the Polish cities of Warsaw and Lublin had been destroyed in an "unprecedented act of sabotage". Tusk described the damaged railway is as crucially important for delivering aid to Ukraine.

"The goal was to cause a rail catastrophe," Tusk told members of Polish parliament in a briefing on Tuesday. He identified that at one of the two specific sabotage sites a military-grade C4 explosive charge was used.

BBC reports that "Another incident further down the line near Pulawy forced a crowded train to stop suddenly and damage was found to overhead cables."

An "explosive device" blew up the rail track, with the the act "directly (targeted) the security of the Polish state and its civilians" - Tusk has also said.

Follow-up statements by Polish investigators said that "everything points to them being Russian special services" - in reference to the pair of Ukrainian nationals believed behind the plot. Tusk says that one of the men lives in eastern Ukraine and another is living in Belarus.

Additionally, Poland’s security services minister, Tomasz Siemoniak, has described attack on a section of the track near Mika village as "a new stage of threatening the railway infrastructure." The severe damage was found some 80 miles from the Ukrainian border.

While Polish investigators say they've identified the perpetrators, it doesn't look like they are in custody, and are likely still on the run. Some regional observers have raised the possibility of a 'false flag' - as it remains hard to independently verify any information coming out of NATO countries' authorities.

via Sky News

Estonia's Prime Minister Kristen Michal had condemned the apparent sabotage op, writing on X that he and his country stand with Poland. "Those behind hostile acts against (European Union) and NATO members must be exposed. Our response must be united."

European countries have long complained of Russian-sponsored 'hybrid warfare' against EU critical infrastructure. They also say that Russia is behind mystery drone incursions which have at times disrupted busy commercial airports as as well as military flights.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 14:45

Emails Reveal Under Armor Urged Maryland To Buy Horse Farm After No Buyers - Will Gov. Moore Return Favor?

The pattern emerging from Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank and his Maryland-based real estate ventures suggests mounting financial strain beneath the surface. This comes as UA shares have collapsed 48% year to date, trading near record lows, raising questions about Plank's sudden need for liquidity. 

In February, we noted that Plank relisted his $18.5 million, 500-acre racehorse farm, Sagamore Farm, located in upper Baltimore County, just 15 minutes north of Towson, signaled a clear need for liquidity.

Plank purchased the farm in mid-2007 for $6.5 million, invested $22 million in upgrades, and still hasn't found a buyer.

In fact, the property, located just down the street from the Hunt Cup steeplechase race, has drawn so little interest that Plank's representatives have asked Maryland Gov. Wes Moore's office to consider purchasing the horse farm.

Local outlet The Baltimore Banner reports that emails between Plank's Sagamore Ventures and Gov. Wes Moore's office show Plank's team pitched the farm as a state-owned horse training facility, which could be part of Moore's broader effort to revitalize Pimlico Race Course and the Preakness Stakes.

In one email, Brendan Tizard, Sagamore Ventures' vice president, listed off several reasons why Sagamore Farm would be a better fit for the state. 

Tizard's top reasons: 

• Sagamore Farm is closer to Pimlico; the land is better suited for horse training;

• and Sagamore's facilities are largely turnkey.

"Although Sagamore's acquisition cost is higher than Shamrock's, the reduction in development time, permitting, and capital make the project more cost-effective for the state," Tizard said in one of the email documents shared with Moore's office. 

Why does this matter? Because Sagamore Farm has been on and off the market for years without finding a buyer. At the same time, Under Armour's stock has crashed, and Plank has been unwinding pieces of his real estate empire, mansions, a hotel, and other assets. The pattern paints a broader picture of someone under growing financial pressure.

"Plank has sold two other high-profile homes in the past decade, a Georgetown mansion for $17.25 million in 2020 and his Park City, Utah condo for $18 million in 2023," WSJ noted earlier this year. 

In recent months, Plank and his brother Scott Plank sold their ownership interest in a luxury hotel tucked into Baltimore's historic Fells Point neighborhood.

The urgent need for cash?

• Inside World Of High-Net-Worth Lending: Kevin Plank Pledges Georgetown Home For $15M Commercial Loan

And Plank built a "billion-dollar ghost town" in crime-ridden and far-left-controlled Baltimore City...

Meanwhile, UA's turnaround plan sputters:

• Under Armour Shares Crash As Kevin Plank's Turnaround Plan Hits Wall 

Stock is spiraling lower. 

UA shares are 27.5% short, equivalent to 51.8 million shares sold short. A massive short position has been building over the past few years as the stock slides. One has to wonder what Plank's plan is to trigger a squeeze.

However, not everyone sees the UA spiraling to zero. UBS analyst Jay Sole recently noted... 

• "We Think Sentiment Will Turn Positive": UBS Sees Inflection Point In Under Armour Shares

And by the way, Plank recently hosted a closed-door fundraiser for the leftist Gov. Moore at Sagamore. 

A lingering question remains: Why the sudden need for liquidity? Could the answer be stock-backed loans that are now underwater?

And we'll end with the ultimate question: After Plank's private fundraiser for Moore at Sagamore, will the governor return the favor?

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 14:25

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets

A brief excerpt:

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales hit highest level since February, C.A.R. reports

California home sales rose in October from both the prior month and a year ago to reach the highest level since February, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 282,590 in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2025 if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

October home sales edged up 1.9 percent from 277,410 in September to 282,590 in October. Home sales improved 4.1 percent from a revised 271,370 recorded a year earlier.

There is much more in the article.

Navigating The Curve: The Allure And Risks Of Long-Dated US Treasuries

Authored by Mario Eisenegger via BondVigilantes.com,

Compared to a year ago, the US Treasury curve has steepened considerably.

While yields at the front end have dropped due to anticipated rate cuts, the long end of the curve has not budged.

In fact, long-end bonds have sold off, giving bond investors the opportunity to lock in elevated yields.

That’s quite a tempting thought, considering we’re talking about the US, which sets the global reference rate for many asset classes.

Source: Bloomberg, 31 October 2025

In economies where GDP growth is constrained by high levels of debt and unfavourable demographics, governments either need to hope for a productivity boom or be prudent with spending plans to keep debt-to-GDP metrics in check. Achieving the latter can be challenging given the pressures of rising geopolitical tensions and the structural incentives in democratic systems that often prioritise short-term spending commitments during election cycles. This, in turn, increases the odds of inflation playing a larger role in achieving fiscal sustainability in the future.

In a world of financial repression, an opportunity to lock in positive real yields at 2-2.5% is worth considering. But, it is not a slam dunk.

Below, we share are a few concerns that keep us on the sidelines for now.

Risk one: absence of productivity boom

Running fiscal deficits when yields are high and debt-to-GDP levels are elevated can be  risky business. The US is currently doing just that which explains why the bond market has revalued the compensation it demands for owning long-dated US Treasuries. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) sees federal debt rise from 100% to 118% of GDP by 2035, reporting the highest point in US history.

Source: Congressional Budget Office

Earlier this year, Deutsche Bank calculated the budget deficit the US must maintain to stabilise its debt metrics. According to their calculations, the US would need to run a primary budget deficit-to-GDP ratio that is no larger than 1.2% to keep debt-to-GDP stable over the long run. With the fiscal package estimated to keep budget deficits as a share of GDP between 5% and 7% over the next few years, deficits of that size look unsustainable in the absence of a productivity boom. Hopes for productivity gains through AI are high. If the story holds up and the much-hoped-for productivity gains materialise, then the US fiscal situation could suddenly look much brighter. Having said that, the CBO also notes that if productivity growth is 0.5% slower per year compared to their baseline assumption, debt could surge to over 200% of GDP by 2055. This highlights how sensitive debt assumptions are, increasing the risk of policy errors that could  lead to further repricing of long-dated US bonds.

Risk two: erosion of Fed independence

In August, President Trump attempted to remove Lisa Cook from the Fed’s board of governors, citing allegations that she falsified records to obtain favourable terms on a mortgage before joining the central bank in 2022. Although the Supreme Court ruled that Cook, who is perceived as a hawkish board member, could remain in her position temporarily, Trump’s move could indicate an attempt to increase his influence over the Fed. The Fed may face repeated pressure if its monetary policies do not align with the White House’s political priorities. Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve chair ends in May 2026, and Trump has stated that he will not nominate “Too-Late” Powell for another term. A new Fed chair might take a more dovish stance, increasing the risk that the Fed opts for lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth. One can argue that the US economy has become more resilient, given that 81% of GDP is now service-oriented, which tends to solve for smoother economic cycles. Cutting rates in a weakening but still growing economy, where inflation hovers above the Fed’s target, is risky business and may lead investors to demand higher long-term interest rates.

Risk three: tariff income might be deemed illegal

The president used a 1977 emergency law to impose tariffs on goods from over 100 countries. On the back of that, tariff revenues have grown for months, and the latest data shows that the US has collected $223.9 billion from them as of 31st October which is $142.2 billion more than the same time last year. This month, the US Supreme Court began hearing cases that could rule certain tariffs and their corresponding revenue streams illegal. These developments could worsen the US fiscal situation and bring the fiscal challenge back into the limelight, likely leading to higher term premium. I consider this likely to be a short term impact, as the Trump administration will probably  find new ways to enact tariffs.

Risk four: shift away from T-Bill heavy funding profile

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signalled a preference to avoid locking the government into higher borrowing costs when bills are cheaper. Just a few days ago the US Treasury confirmed this by indicating in its quarterly refinancing statement that it does not plan to increase sales of notes and bonds until well into next year and will rely more heavily on bills, which mature in up to one year, to fund the budget deficit. T-bills currently comprise 20% of the US debt held by the public. The Treasury has acknowledged that this reliance reduces expected costs while also increasing volatility of its funding profile. This trade-off is highly sensitive to baseline economic forecasts. While the current funding mix is appropriate in a “productivity boom” scenario, other scenarios highlight additional risks. Interestingly, their model suggests that a reduction in bill issuance in favour of mid-duration issuance could lower volatility for a negligible increase in costs in adverse scenarios. Thus, the odds of a shift away from a T-bill-heavy funding profile might be higher than many believe.

While the positive real yields offered by long-dated US Treasuries are tempting, we await the resolution of some of the uncertainties discussed to strengthen our conviction. For now, we consider positive real yields more attractive in other market areas where we have greater confidence in the direction of long-dated yields.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 12:05

Sen. Graham Touts Movement On New Russian Sanctions Bill 'With Trump's Blessing'

Sen. Lindsey Graham announced Monday the Senate is taking up legislation that would sanction Russia's trading partners, in order to ramp up the pressure on Moscow to end the war with Ukraine.

The announcement came after President Donald Trump told reporters Sunday night the proposed legislation would be "OK with me" - which marked his strongest signal yet that he's planning on signing off on it.

Graham, a Russia hawk (and pretty much hawkish on all other conflicts and official US 'enemies' in the world) unveiled the move forward on the legislation "with President Trump’s blessing."

via AP

He described the necessity of yet more sanctions in order to "continue the momentum to end this war honorably, justly and once and for all."

"This legislation is designed to give President Trump more flexibility and power to push Putin to the peace table by going after both Putin and countries like Iran that support him," Graham wrote. "I appreciate the strong bipartisan support for this legislation in both the House of Representatives and the Senate."

"The Senate will move soon on a tough sanctions bill — not only against Russia — but also against countries like China and India that buy Russian energy products that finance Putin’s war machine," Graham additionally stated. "The Senate bill has a presidential waiver to give President Trump maximum leverage."

"When it comes to Putin and those who support his war machine, it is time to change the game," he continued. Further, Graham again verified that Trump "is looking at [the bill] very strongly." But Trump wants the ultimate final say-so:

Graham and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a co-sponsor of the bill, worked to include the presidential waiver to satisfy a White House request to give Trump more options, according to Politico.

US media is framing this as part of Trump "losing patience" with Putin over ending the war; however, the reality remains that Kiev and its Western backers have been unwilling to offer territorial concessions. Finally ceding Crimea hasn't even been on the table.

"We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth," Trump recently told reporters. "He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless." And Graham responded to Trump's words by saying the president "is spot on about the games Putin is playing."

Lately, amid a 'civil war' in MAGA-land in the wake of the Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes interview, many of Trump's supporters have vehemently complained that Trump is too much in neocon Lindsey Graham's corner on foreign policy. His administration certainly didn't start off like that.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 11:45

AI "Circle Jerk" Rages On: Microsoft, Nvidia Invest $15 Billion In Anthropic

Two months ago, when nobody was talking about the coming AI debt tsunami needed to bankroll trillions in data-center capex, and nobody was paying attention to Oracle's CDS quietly blow out, and well ahead of the Bank of England's AI valuation warning, we published "The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk," essentially laying out all the weakest links in the swelling global AI bubble.

In the report, we laid out the ridiculous circle-jerk vendor financing schemes concocted by the handful of top players to pretend their revenue is growing at a rapid pace. We also called it an "infinite money glitch"...

Most notably, the players.

Fast-forward to Tuesday: the AI bubble keeps deflating, hyperscalers are under pressure, Bitcoin trading in the $92k range, and Microsoft and Amazon were just downgraded to neutral by Rothschild & Co. and Redburn's Alexander Haissl. Now comes fresh news from Microsoft and Nvidia, attempting to revive the AI hype with yet another round of circle-jerking. 

Bloomberg reports Microsoft and Nvidia will invest up to $15 billion in Anthropic. As part of the agreement, Anthropic will purchase $30 billion of compute from Microsoft's Azure, which only confirms more circle-jerking. 

"We are increasingly going to be customers of each other — we will use Anthropic models, they will use our infrastructure, and we will go to market together," Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated in a video, adding, "Of course, this all builds on the partnership we have with OpenAI, which remains a critical partner for Microsoft."

Satya Nadella explains how the circle jerk works: "We are increasingly going to be customers of each other — we will use Anthropic models, they will use our infrastructure, and we will go to market together"

And the US taxpayer will bail out everyone.

The end. https://t.co/WIHEzmZOlz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 18, 2025

To support the AI-infrastructure buildout, Anthropic plans to spend $50 billion building AI data centers across multiple states. The AI company is simultaneously partnered with Google, which agreed in October to supply up to 1 million AI chips. 

Earlier, analyst Haissl warned that the bullish case around generative AI is no longer clear and hyperscalers should be approached with caution. 

He noted the industry's "trust us - Gen-AI is just like early cloud 1.0" pitch is flawed and that the underlying economics are far weaker than assumed.

Building on Haissl's warning, we've been very early in covering Oracle's CDS blowout, even offering warnings about AI debt and valuations well before the Bank of England. 

Bad news for the AI stocks. 

With all free cash flow going into chatbot data center capex, there is nothing left for buybacks and dividends. pic.twitter.com/RcqzDhHLv6

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 3, 2025

As we've previously joked. 

at this rate tomorrow morning we will get this headline

*OPENAI SIGNS DEAL WITH OPENAI TO BUY AND SELL $100 TRILLION WORTH OF STUFF TO AND FROM ITSELF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 4, 2025

Morgan Stanley analysts need to add Anthropic to the circle jerking.

Harris Kupperman, CIO of Praetorian Capital, posted the following on X,

Love how shareholders look at this deal, realize that this guarantees big losses for years into the future, and sell them like they're shale shit-cos promising to raise production in a $50 oil environment. Welcome to 2016 tech bros. The multiple compression is only just starting...

Rihard Jarc, co-founder and CIO of New Era Funds, pointed out that multiple narratives are converging in the Microsoft-Nvidia-Anthropic partnership:

So many narratives are at play here in the Microsoft-Nvidia-Anthropic partnership:

1. Nvidia saw Anthropic do a deal with Google's TPUs and Amazon's Trainium, so it had to ensure Anthropic stays committed to Nvidia hardware.

2. Microsoft is signaling that its future isn't dependent on OpenAI alone.

3. Anthropic is showing investors it can line up splashy partnerships and meaningful letter-of-intent orders.

4. And all of them timed this announcement to land on the same day as Google's Gemini 3.0 release - because if Google wins the frontier-model race decisively, all three would feel the pressure.

So many narratives are at play here at the $MSFT & $NVDA & Anthropic partnership IMO:

1. $NVDA saw Anthropic do a deal with $GOOGL TPUs, & $AMZN Trainium so it had to make sure Anthropic will use $NVDA

2. $MSFT showing that its fate is not dependent on OpenAI.

3. Anthropic is… https://t.co/QhoYPqyK4F

— Rihard Jarc (@RihardJarc) November 18, 2025

How does all this end? Trump's AI advisor, David Sacks may have offered a clue: "There will be no federal bailout for AI. The U.S. has at least five major frontier-model companies. If one fails, others will take its place."

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 11:30

China's Oil Stockpiling Accelerated In October

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

China stockpiled crude oil at elevated rates in October, at a daily rate of some 690,000 barrels, up from 570,000 barrels daily in September, Reuters’ Clyde Russell reported today, citing calculations derived from official Beijing data.

Refinery throughput in October averaged 14.94 million barrels daily, the official data showed, while imports ran at a rate of 11.39 million barrels daily, Russell reported.

The refinery throughput figure was a 6.4% increase on the year, suggesting healthy demand for oil, but it was also a decline on September’s 15.26 million bpd average.

The September figure was a two-year high.

Imports, meanwhile, averaged 11.39 million barrels daily in October, adding to local production of 4.24 million barrels daily for a total daily supply rate of 15.63 million barrels.

The difference between supply and demand, as based on refinery runs, is assumed to be going into storage, although some of it might be processed by small refineries that are not included in the official data, Russell notes in his regular reports on the state of China’s oil market.

This stockpiling on the part of China has become a major reason for the relative stability of oil prices.

It is based on the rather reasonable assumption that if China, the world’s largest oil importer, has built a supply cushion in case of disruption, then a surge in demand following such a disruption is unlikely. This assumption has acted as one more lid on prices, along with regular reports about electric vehicles replacing internal combustion engines in the world’s biggest car market.

Over the first ten months of the year, China was stockpiling crude at a daily rate of 900,000 barrels, the Reuters report also said, giving a rather comfortable size to that supply cushion in case of disruption, such as the latest U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 11:00

Callaway Sells Struggling Topgolf To Los Angeles Private Equity

We raised the question back in 2023: was the Topgolf mania just another consumer hype bubble?

Turns out that may have been the case. Topgolf Callaway Brands had been trying to unload or spin off the Topgolf unit for some time, and now they have.

Bloomberg reports that Callaway has sold a 60% stake in its Topgolf and Toptracer division to Leonard Green & Partners in a deal valuing the business at about $1.1 billion. This means the 60% stake will generate about $770 million for Callaway. 

Callaway originally acquired Topgolf in 2020 for about $2 billion. After the sale closes in 1Q26, the company will rebrand itself as Callaway Golf Company under the ticker "CALY" and refocus on its core golf equipment brands, stepping away from the struggling golf-experience chain.

In September, Golf Digest published a report based on conversations with former Topgolf executives Devin Charhon and Michael Canfield, revealing that Topgolf never achieved a stable flow of returning customers (cost was a major factor).

The former execs left the company to start Blue Jeans, which created the "Golf Ranch" brand, modernizing aging driving ranges and making it more of an actual practice facility for golfers rather than the Togolf experience of fancy screens and lights. It turns out golfers just want to practice.  

Well, that wasn't as planned. 

Golf Ranch sounds more reasonable. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 10:40

The Boundaries Dividing Political, Monetary, Fiscal, Trade And Other Policies Are Gone

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Polycene and the Monocene

For over a decade our global strategy has warned the ‘liberal world order’ would collapse. Now, the New York Times’ Tom Friedman, in ‘Welcome to Our New Era. What Do We Call It?’, shares that “For the past few years, I have had to ask myself a question I never asked before in my life: What should we call the era we’re living in today?” He’s running with ‘The Polycene’, which in Greek means “There’s so much going on that a ‘Monocene’ focus on data won’t help.”

In markets stocks, tech, crypto, and even gold are down. Japanese 20-year JGB yields just hit the highest since 1999, prompting a meeting at 15:30 Japan time today between PM Takaichi and BOJ Governor Ueda – but what can be done endogenously that doesn’t smash either the JGB market or JPY? There are also warnings over private credit - yet we also continue to see circular-investing / vendor-financing mega deals in the AI space.

In geopolitics, the USS Ford has arrived in the Caribbean: what does that mean for Venezuela, as Chile is expected to see a US-friendly shift in its presidential election? In Asia, the US pulled a missile system from Japan as the Beijing–Tokyo row over Taiwan deepens despite the latter’s attempts to deescalate. In Europe, Berlin and Paris may scrap a planned joint fighter as France plans to supply Ukraine with 100 Rafales, upping the ante with Russia; Brussels warns the EU’s proposed €140bn Ukraine loan could have a “knock-on” impact on financial markets; Poland says a rail explosion there was an “unprecedented act of sabotage”; and the FT warns ‘The scramble for Europe is just beginning’, where “as the EU struggles to defend its interests, outside powers play divide and rule,” putting a new spin on ‘DM = EM’. In the Mid-East, the UN Security Council backed Trump’s plan for postwar Gaza, as the US intends to sell F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia, whose more cash-strapped MBS will visit the White House today for arm twisting on expanding the Abraham Accords.

As military spending surges, the fiscal picture is worrying. Russia is raising VAT by 2 percentage points. The US is talking $2,000 cheques for working families paid for by tariffs. France still hasn’t agreed a budget. Germany is about to splurge on arms. Canada is borrowing far more, but not for that. The UK just saw market volatility over suggestions taxes wouldn’t be raised when the market had previously disliked the idea that they would. China is rolling out stimulus. Japan’s PM also wants fiscal stimulus… to lower inflation.

Supply chains are geopolitically squeezed. Both GM and Tesla say they won’t use Chinese parts in the US. German is freezing out Huawei and will bring in new tech controls aimed at China. The Dutch-Chinese Nexperia row rumbles on, and a new row has started. The US still hasn’t formally secured the China rare earths deal it wants. Positively, India says a US trade deal is closer after agreeing to take much more US LNG. Negatively, the US just warned Europe over trade foot-dragging, and the Chair of UBS has talked to Scott Bessent about moving the bank to the States.

Affordability remains a key issue in the West: there’s a Trump summit on it today. The situation is similar in other DM – and worse in EM. House prices are sky high: the average age of a US home buyer has risen to 59(!) A top Aussie banker says housing heat is raising concerns and calls to ‘Put the brakes on’ follow a record A$40bn investor blitz into property as everyone --but the central bank-- predicted would follow RBA rate cuts. Moreover, the AFR warns ‘China’s debt shock is coming. Our high house prices won’t protect us’, and “Australia’s economy isn’t ready.”

The threat of AI job losses is soaring. That’s as MAGA politicians are demanding transparency on AI job losses, where “Protecting US workers collides with need to outpace China”, and ‘Notices of Impending Layoffs by US Companies Surged in October’ (Bloomberg). Yet Elon Musk states his robots could end poverty and provide universal high incomes. So, what’s next: mass unemployment or ‘abundance’ or both? Which central bank has either in their models?

Political populism keeps rising. Mamdani won in New York. Trump has been forced to agree to release the Epstein files, as a far-right (and libertarian) ‘America First’ faction challenges MAGA. In Australia, the Nats/Libs Coalition is down sharply in the polls after it dropped a commitment to net zero and says it wants much lower immigration, as populist One Nation surges. In the UK, the Reform party says it would cut off benefits for EU citizens and slash overseas aid to save £25bn: the UK press says the police are preparing for civil war. On Friday, PM Takaichi announced she may change the corporate code to force Japanese firms to invest more or pay higher wages rather than return profits to shareholders. In Nepal, Indonesia, and Mexico Gen-Z protests just tried to bring down their governments. Again, central banks can’t capture this – but may be captured.

Indeed, D.L. Jacobs argues the Fed’s Miran aims to challenge the foundations of US monetary policy “because the world [Fed] forecasts are trying to measure no longer exists.” Keynesianism emerged in the Great Depression of the 1930s; monetarism with the Great Stagflation of the 1970s; hyper-neoliberalism in the post-Cold War 1990s; central bank QE in the post-GFC 2000s; and Miran argues the Treasury and Fed de facto merged in the 2020s so “The pretence of central bank independence has collapsed. Monetary policy is now politics conducted by other means.” And the US faces a panoply of (geo)political challenges.

“For Miran, the answer is not to restore a lost neutrality. It is to make that power accountable… the goal of central bank independence can be achieved only by new means.” We are seeing similar rhetoric from Reform in the UK and the RN in France. (As former Fed Governor Kugler is accused of violating trading ethics, current Governor Cook is in court to fight charges of mortgage fraud, ex-governor Clarida was forced to step down in 2022 over stock trading, and for-now current Governor Bostic was warned over the same.)   

New means means new thinking – and for Miran that’s part of the Mar-a-Lago Accords that also involves trade, the US dollar, and US Treasuries. The current account deficits required to give the world demanded Eurodollars mean US financialisation, polarisation, deindustrialisation, and de-hegemonisation – which the US now intends to resist, not accept.

As such, the boundaries dividing political, monetary, fiscal, trade and other policies are gone (as we had flagged) and, as Jacobs puts it, “Miran argues that coordination should be made deliberate and accountable. He’s on a mission to modernize US-led capitalism, turning ad-hoc crisis management into a coherent framework for political economy.”

But is there one and will it work? We think yes, and it remains to be seen. But that needs to be the market debate, not what payrolls, PMIs, or CPI will be. However, it’s also true that the worse those data are, the greater the pressure for revolutionary policy changes ahead of the key US mid-term elections.

For now avoiding all these debates, the RBA minutes of its November policy rate meeting showed one member pushing back on the idea that its unemployment and inflation goals bear equal weight --so which matters most?-- and the overall message was that the Reserve Bank will only consider cutting rates again if the labor market shows a serious deterioration. That’s the kind of deep Monocene thinking for which one is, or at least was, paid the big bucks. But in the world that exists today, is it possible that such an outcome could also correlate with a further surge in house prices anyway? And if so, then what?

That question doesn’t get asked anywhere near enough in anywhere near enough contexts.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 10:20

Factory Orders Data Show Rebound In August

As the macro data engine slowly starts to grind back into motion, we are given glimpses of what happened 'months' ago. Earlier we got some jobless claims data from four weeks ago, and now we get Durable Goods and Factory Orders data from August...

...and the data we got was kinda meh...

August Factory orders rose 1.4% MoM (a big swing from the 1.3% MoM decline in July and an even bigger drop in June) but in line with expectations. This bounce lifted Orders by 3.8% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Core Factory Orders also rose (just 0.1% MoM), lifting orders 1.53% YoY in August...

Source: Bloomberg

More broadly, durable goods orders (final for August) rose 2.9% MoM (up from -2.8% in July) while Core Durable Goods Orders (ex-transports) rose 0.3% MoM (slightly less than the 0.4% expected) but remained solid for the fifth month in a row...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that Core shipments, an input for the GDP calculation, declined 0.4% (vs. +0.6% prior).

So, August was solid, but as a reminder, it's November!

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 10:12

The post Inherited Economies: Biden and Trump appeared first on CEPR.

Trump Blasts "Big, Fat, Rich Insurance Companies" As Lawmakers Propose Ways To 'Fix' Obamacare

Obamacare remains on center stage nearly a week after the government shutdown ended on Nov. 12.

The health coverage program, formally known as the Affordable Care Act Health Insurance Marketplace, was a driver of the government shutdown as Democrats demanded that temporary enhanced subsidies for the program be made permanent.

The shutdown ended only after Senate Republicans agreed to hold a vote on the matter, though they did not guarantee an outcome.

Democrats generally favor making the enhanced subsidies permanent.

Republicans, including President Donald Trump, have proposed alternatives they say will give Americans greater control over their health care spending and lower premiums.

Trump made it extremely clear what his preferred approach is this morning in a FULL CAPS post on Truth Social: (emphasis ours)

THE ONLY HEALTHCARE I WILL SUPPORT OR APPROVE IS SENDING THE MONEY DIRECTLY BACK TO THE PEOPLE, WITH NOTHING GOING TO THE BIG, FAT, RICH INSURANCE COMPANIES, WHO HAVE MADE $TRILLIONS, AND RIPPED OFF AMERICA LONG ENOUGH.

THE PEOPLE WILL BE ALLOWED TO NEGOTIATE AND BUY THEIR OWN, MUCH BETTER, INSURANCE. POWER TO THE PEOPLE!

Congress, do not waste your time and energy on anything else.

This is the only way to have great Healthcare in America!!!

GET IT DONE, NOW.

President DJT

Lawrence Wilson explains below, via The Epoch Times, why Obamacare is a hot issue right now and what both sides are proposing.

Premiums Continue to Rise

Commercial health insurance premiums have risen every year since 2008, according to Health System Tracker, a data collection site run by the nonprofits The Peterson Center on Healthcare and KFF.

Obamacare premiums have also risen nearly every year since the program began in 2014, with the exception of 2020–2023. Those were the first years of the enhanced premium subsidies, authorized by Congress as a temporary response to COVID-19 health emergencies.

The enhanced subsidies allowed people making more than four times the federal poverty level to buy subsidized coverage. They also capped the out-of-pocket premium costs at 8 percent of a person’s household income, with the government paying the rest. The enhanced subsidies are set to expire at the end of 2025.

Rates have risen each year since 2022 and will increase about 26 percent in 2026, on average, for the Benchmark Silver plan.

Direct Payments to Consumers

Trump floated the idea of giving low- and middle-income Americans a direct payment of $2,000 rather than providing a subsidy that is paid to insurance companies.

That would allow people to purchase their own insurance, Trump said in a Nov. 8 social media post. The president added that this would avoid putting more money into a health coverage system that, he said, provided inferior health coverage.

The White House is in discussion with lawmakers about the idea, Trump told reporters on Nov. 14.

“I’ve had personal talks with some Democrats,” he said, adding that the plan would allow consumers to negotiate their own price with an insurer.

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) is drafting legislation for a similar plan now. His plan would send money directly to individual Health Savings Accounts, much like Trump suggested.

“They can use it to spend on healthcare, so they can buy direct health care, or they can buy insurance, or [use it for] a co-payment or deductible,” Scott told Reporters on Nov. 10.

Consumers could use the funds to buy any plan authorized by their state’s insurance commission, he added.

Scott and some other Republicans believe the enhanced subsidies drive up the cost of health insurance for everyone while masking the increase to consumers.

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) speaks during a hearing with Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Capitol Hill in Washington on Sept. 4, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

“Insurers get paid no matter what—and taxpayers get stuck with the tab,” Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) said in a Nov. 7 speech.

Increasing federal payments in the hope of decreasing costs is “like putting a band-aid on a broken bone,” Cassidy said.

“Instead of paying insurance companies to manage our money, let’s trust Americans to manage their own care—with a pre-funded Federal Flexible Spending Account,” he said.

A Flexible Spending Account is similar to a Health Savings Account but is not owned by the individual and does not roll over from year to year.

Addressing Fraud and Abuse

Republicans generally have been reluctant to extend the enhanced subsidies without also addressing abuse of the Obamacare system, which they say rose dramatically after those subsidies were introduced.

The expiration date indicates that the subsidies were not considered a long-term solution, Dr. Mehmet Oz, administrator of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, said in a Fox News interview on Nov. 16.

“It creates incentives for fraud,” he said.

Data indicates that 4.4 million people are enrolled in Obamacare, apparently without their knowledge, Dr. Oz said. He noted that, unlike 80 percent of health insurance holders, this population has never used their coverage for a doctor visit, prescription, or any other medical service.

“There are discussions around extending the subsidies, if we deal with the fraud, waste, and abuse,” Dr. Oz said.

Administrator for the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Mehmet Oz speaks during an event in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, on Oct. 16, 2025. Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Temporary Extension

A bipartisan group of House members has introduced a bill to extend certain tax credits for Obamacare enrollees, which are set to expire at the end of the year.

The bill, sponsored by Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Tom Suozzi (D-N.Y.), would extend the “enhanced” premium tax credits for one year, avoiding an abrupt end to a financial benefit many Americans have come to rely on.

“While the enhanced premium tax credit created during the pandemic was meant to be temporary, we should not let it expire without a plan in place. My legislation will protect hardworking Virginians from facing health insurance bills they can’t afford, thus losing much-needed access to care,” Kiggans said in a statement.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), a retiring lawmaker who helped negotiate the end of the shutdown, voiced optimism that a bipartisan solution is possible.

“I think there are a number of them who are very serious [about working to lower health coverage costs],” Shaheen told reporters on Nov. 10. She added that any solution would have to address the expiring subsidies.

Separately, a group of 32 bipartisan House members wrote to Senate leaders asking that they be included in any discussions on the upcoming health care reform vote.

“If we work together, our hope is that the bill will not only achieve a sixty-vote majority in the Senate, but will also then move to the House for immediate consideration and passage,” the group wrote, led by Kiggans and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.).

Adding Income Cap

Reps. Sam Liccardo (D-Calif.) and Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) have introduced legislation to control the cost of extending the enhanced subsidies by imposing an income cap on recipients.

Currently, anyone earning over four times the federal poverty level can qualify for the subsidy. This proposal would cap enrollment at six times the poverty level, or $192,900 for a family of four.

“This will provide short-term relief while we tackle broader reforms to lower the cost of care,” Kiley said in a Nov. 10 statement.

The plan would save approximately $5 billion over two years, the congressmen estimated.

The Senate is expected to vote on changes to Obamacare by mid-December.

That gives the 20 states and the District of Columbia that operate their own Obamacare marketplaces, plus the federal marketplace, about two weeks to make adjustments to their subsidy offers before 2026 coverage begins. Annual enrollment for Obamacare has been open since Nov. 1.

Any solution approved by the Senate must then pass the House and be signed by the president to become law.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 10:05

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 38, up from 37 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

From the NAHB: Builder Sentiment Relatively Flat in November as Market Headwinds Persist

Market uncertainty exacerbated by the government shutdown along with economic uncertainty stemming from tariffs and rising construction costs kept builder confidence firmly in negative territory in November.

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes rose one point to 38 in November, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today.

“While lower mortgage rates are a positive development for affordability conditions, many buyers remain hesitant because of the recent record-long government shutdown and concerns over job security and inflation,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C. “More builders are using incentives to get deals closed, including lowering prices, but many potential buyers still remain on the fence.”

“We continue to see demand-side weakness as a softening labor market and stretched consumer finances are contributing to a difficult sales environment,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “After a decline for single-family housing starts in 2025, NAHB is forecasting a slight gain in 2026 as builders continue to report future sales conditions in marginally positive territory.”

In a further sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 41% of builders reported cutting prices in November, a record high in the post-Covid period and the first time this measure has passed 40%. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 6% in November, the same rate as the previous month. The use of sales incentives was 65% in November, tying the share in September and October.
...
The HMI index gauging current sales conditions increased two points to 41, the index measuring future sales fell three points to 51 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a one-point gain to 26.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast rose two points to 48, the Midwest fell one point to 41, the South increased three points to 34 and the West gained two points to 30.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

The index has been below 50 for nineteen consecutive months.