Individual Economists

10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture -

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

• I’ve Covered Police Abuse for 20 Years. What ICE Is Doing Is Different. There were no promises of an impartial investigation. There was no regret or remorse. There was little empathy for her family — for her parents, her partner or the children she left behind. From the moment the world learned about her death, the administration pronounced the shooting not only justified but an act of heroism worthy of praise and celebration. (New York Times)

• We Are Witnessing the Self-Immolation of a Superpower: With Donald Trump’s actions in Greenland, Minneapolis, and Venezuela, a foreign enemy could not invent a better chain of events to wreck the standing of the United States. (Wired) see also America vs. the World: President Trump wants to return to the 19th century’s international order. He will leave America less prosperous—and the whole world less secure. (The Atlantic) see also This Is the End: Putinism abroad always morphs into Putinism at home. And we chose this path. Why? Because something-something the price of eggs. (The Bulwark)

• The rich are powering spending, with the U.S. economy in a danger zone: The health of the economy increasingly depends on rich people spending money, a new analysis of government data finds. That puts the U.S. in a fragile place because consumer spending drives growth — so the entire economy is now relying on a smaller number of people to keep things afloat. (Axios)

• When Chicago pawned its parking meters: The deal Chicago made would go down as one of the most notorious miscalculations in the history of city government. It would call into question what the government is even supposed to do, and become a textbook case on the potential pitfalls of privatization.  (NPR)

• They’ve bought themselves a Congress: Coinbase calls the shots in the Senate; former New York City Mayor Eric Adams faces rug pull allegations, and a crypto executive is breaking up with Trump. (Citation Needed)

• Inside Bari Weiss’s Hostile Takeover of CBS News: The network’s new editor-in-chief has championed a press free from élite bias, while aligning herself with a billionaire class more willing than ever to indulge Donald Trump. (New Yorker)

• How Donald Trump Has Transformed ICE: A former D.H.S. oversight official on what, legally, the agency can and can’t do—and the accountability mechanisms that have been “gutted beyond recognition.” (New Yorker) see also “ICE 101″ — How Trump changed ICE and CBP into a fascist secret police: ICE and CBP are fatally flawed products of the post-9/11 War on Terror — now Trump has weaponized those very flaws to occupy America. (Doomsday Scenario)

• DOGE staffer signed deal to share Social Security data with election deniers: In an extraordinary court filing, “NOTICE OF CORRECTIONS TO THE RECORD,” government lawyers representing the SSA revealed that in March 2025, a DOGE staffer signed an agreement to share the private data of Americans with a “political advocacy group” seeking to “overturn election results in certain States.” WTF? (Popular Information)

• Rejecting Decades of Science, Vaccine Panel Chair Says Polio and Other Shots Should Be Optional: Dr. Kirk Milhoan, a pediatric cardiologist who leads the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, said a person’s right to refuse a vaccine outweighed concerns about illness or death from infectious diseases. (New York Times) see also The Quiet Misogyny of RFK Jr.’s War on Science: The burdens of so many of these proposals fall disproportionately on women, and moms in particular. (Slate)

• A Year Inside Kash Patel’s F.B.I. Forty-five current and former employees on the changes they say are undermining the agency and making America less safe. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Zach Buchwald, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Russell Investments. The global investment firm was founded in 1936, and today has ~$370 billion in AUM. Previously, he had a 15-year tenure at BlackRock, where he served as the head of its $2 trillion Institutional Business, leading the company’s Financial Institutions Group and helped establish its Retirement Solutions and Financial Markets Advisory platforms.

 

The most important chart in US politics

Source: @FredLambert

 

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The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Tehran Rejects UN 'Protest Killings' Resolution, Blasts Western Moralizing

Zero Hedge -

Tehran Rejects UN 'Protest Killings' Resolution, Blasts Western Moralizing

Iran has flatly rejected a United Nations Human Rights Council resolution condemning what it described as the "violent crackdown on peaceful protests" by Iranian security forces, after two weeks of raging economic protests earlier this month, which also included a government enforced total internet shutdown.

Following a closed-door session in Geneva on Friday, 25 council members - including France, Japan, and South Korea - voted in favor of the formal censure.

SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

But there were significant voices among the seven that voted against, including China, India, and Pakistan. Fourteen others abstained.

The council demanded that Tehran halt arrests linked to the protests and take steps to "prevent extrajudicial killing, other forms of arbitrary deprivation of life, enforced disappearance, sexual and gender-based violence."

UN human rights chief Volker Türk told the council that "the brutality in Iran continued, creating conditions for further human rights violations, instability and bloodshed."

Tehran blasted the resolution as another display of Western hypocrisy, arguing that the sponsors of the emergency session have never genuinely cared about human rights in Iran.

Iran’s envoy Ali Bahreini pushed back at the meeting, saying as follows:

"It was ironic that states whose history was stained with genocide and war crimes now attempted to lecture Iran on social governance and human rights."

This past week in Davos for the World Economic Forum, there was an interesting moment where US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent actually openly boasted that US sanctions helped drive the protests, after crippling the economy.

So Islamic Republic leaders are right to be skeptical when American, Israel, or European officials claims they 'stand' with the Iranian people, and seek 'democracy'. Already, UN officials are invoking historical "genocide" instances and are dubiously comparing them with what's going on in Iran:

A prosecutor said at least twice more people were killed in Iran in half the time compared with the Srebrenica genocide.

Iran's Bahreini reiterated some of his government's official casualty figures from clashes with police and security services, which were initially issued days ago via state sources. He said 3,117 people were killed during the unrest, but he also claimed that 2,427 of those deaths were caused by "terrorists" - covertly funded by enemies of Iran - namely the United States, Israel, and their allies.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 18:05

Last Look At Snowfall Models As 'Snowpocalypse' Begins

Zero Hedge -

Last Look At Snowfall Models As 'Snowpocalypse' Begins

How Will This Weekend's Mega-Storm Compare to the Winter Blasts of 2016 and 1996?

Meteorologist Ben Noll says this weekend's snowstorm could be similar to the Blizzard of 1996. For our more seasoned readers, 1996 was an unforgettable winter. Many younger readers, however, have grown up in snow droughts and years of corporate media narratives centered on Al Gore's global warming alarmism.

Yet here we are on Saturday morning, looking over the latest weather models that show more than half the country under a winter storm warning. Noll wrote on X earlier that "55 percent of all people living in the United States — some 190 million — were under an alert related to the storm."

The latest snowfall predictions stretch from Texas to the Northeast.

"This is legitimately one of the biggest storms I can recall tracking. Snow spans from Arizona to DC this evening," private weather forecaster BAWMX wrote on X.

Winter appears locked in across the Lower 48 for the next several weeks.

Next, let's refine the snowfall outlook for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Courtesy of private weather forecaster NY NJ PA Weather weighs in below.

Thanks to early-week client notes from energy research firm Criterion Research, we were well ahead of the curve in explaining how the Arctic cold blast, combined with a major winter storm, could create power-grid risks. The storm threatens to crimp natural gas supply through production freeze-offs and reduced pipeline flows, increasing pressure on already stressed-out regional power grids. Our focus will be on the PJM grid this weekend.

Here's the reporting:

Crickets from Greta and the climate crisis cult this week. Oh, wait, that's because the climate money ran out and the focus shifted entirely to Palestine. For those grounded in reality, prepare for what could be a historic winter storm this weekend. We've told readers in the PJM region and the Northeast to consider buying a whole-house generator, citing a Goldman note (read here). Become ungovernable with a wood fireplace and/or a coal-burning stove.

As for the travel space, it's a nightmare. For anyone traveling over the next 24 to 48 hours, expect delays and cancellations.

So far, roughly 9,000 flights have reportedly been canceled.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 17:55

Duffy's Nuclear Option Remains On The Table: California Could Lose Authority To Issue Any CDLs

Zero Hedge -

Duffy's Nuclear Option Remains On The Table: California Could Lose Authority To Issue Any CDLs

Authored by Rob Carpenter via FreightWaves.com,

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy just dropped what I’ve been calling the nuclear option.

In an appearance on Katie Pavlich Tonight Thursday, Duffy made clear that withholding $200 million in federal funding isn’t the end of this fight. If California doesn’t come into compliance on the non-domiciled CDL issue, Duffy said, “we will eventually pull their ability to issue commercial driver’s licenses to anybody in California.”

Not just the 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs at the center of this fight. Every single CDL in the state.

I’ve written extensively about this standoff since the FMCSA released its audit findings last September, which showed that roughly 25% of California’s non-domiciled CDLs were improperly issued. I’ve covered the $160 million funding hit. I’ve warned about the decertification authority in 49 U.S.C. 31312 and 49 CFR 384.405, which most people in this industry didn’t even know existed.

How We Got Here

This didn’t start with the Trump administration’s September 2025 emergency rule restricting non-domiciled CDLs to certain visa categories. That rule, which limited eligibility to H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 visa holders, has been stayed by the D.C. Circuit since November. The court found that petitioners were “likely to succeed” on their claims that the FMCSA violated federal law in its rulemaking.

The California problem predates all of that.

FMCSA’s August 2025 Annual Program Review found California had been violating federal regulations that existed long before Duffy took office. The state was issuing CDLs with expiration dates extending years beyond drivers’ lawful presence documentation. In one case that still makes my blood boil, California issued a driver from Brazil a CDL with passenger and school bus endorsements that remained valid months after his legal presence expired.

That’s not a new rule problem. That’s a California screwed-up problem.

California agreed in November to revoke all 17,000 improperly issued licenses by January 5, 2026. Then, on December 30, the California DMV unilaterally announced a 60-day extension to March 6, citing the need to ensure it doesn’t wrongfully terminate licenses for drivers who actually qualify.

Duffy’s response on X was blunt: “Gavin Newsom is lying.”

FMCSA never agreed to the extension. California proceeded anyway. On January 7, DOT made good on its threat and withheld approximately $160 million in National Highway Performance Program and Surface Transportation Block Grant funds. That’s on top of the $40 million already withheld over California’s refusal to enforce English language proficiency requirements.

The Nuclear Math

California has more than 700,000 CDL holders. The state is home to the nation’s largest trucking workforce, with over 138,000 truck drivers moving freight through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, the agricultural heartland of the Central Valley, and every retail distribution center feeding the country’s largest consumer market.

Under full decertification, California would be prohibited from issuing, renewing, transferring, or upgrading any commercial learner’s permits or commercial driver’s licenses until FMCSA determines the state has corrected its deficiencies. Previously issued CDLs would technically remain valid until their stated expiration dates, but here’s where it gets ugly.

Other states could refuse to recognize California credentials during the noncompliance period. FMCSA could issue guidance declaring CDLs issued by a noncompliant state invalid for interstate commerce. The Commercial Driver’s License Information System, which enables interstate verification, could flag every California license.

For the 700,000 CDL holders in the Golden State, decertification wouldn’t just be an administrative headache.

It would effectively ground them from operating in interstate commerce.

I’ve been doing compliance work in this industry for over 25 years. I’ve never seen a federal-state confrontation escalate this fast or this far.

What’s That Look Like? 

The 17,000 non-domiciled CDLs at the center of this fight represent just over 9% of California’s for-hire carrier base. I believe that number represents just under half the total increase in CDLs 

This isn’t really about 17,000 drivers anymore.

J.B. Hunt’s analysis suggests that, between non-domiciled CDL restrictions and English language proficiency enforcement, we could see 214,000 to 437,000 drivers removed from the U.S. supply over the next two to three years. FMCSA estimates that 97% of the current 200,000 non-domiciled CDL holders nationwide won’t be able to satisfy the new requirements under the September rule, assuming it survives legal challenge.

Transport Futures economist Noël Perry puts the at-risk population even higher when accounting for undocumented drivers and new-hire restrictions: potentially 600,000 drivers, or 16% of the active workforce.

Whether those numbers hold up or not, one thing is clear. The days of states running their CDL programs with what Duffy called “reckless disregard” for federal requirements are ending.

What Happens Next

California is stuck between a rock and a hard place it created for itself.

On the one hand, the federal government is withholding $200 million and threatening to revoke the state’s authority to issue any commercial credential. On the other hand, a class-action lawsuit filed by the Asian Law Caucus, the Sikh Coalition, and Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP argues that the DMV’s own administrative errors caused the mismatches in expiration dates and that drivers should be able to immediately reapply for corrected credentials.

The lawsuit names five individual plaintiffs and the Jakara Movement, a Fresno-based organization serving the Punjabi Sikh community. An estimated 150,000 Sikh truck drivers operate in the United States, and many of the affected drivers argue they’re being punished for what amounts to clerical errors by the state.

They’re not wrong about the clerical errors. The DMV admitted in correspondence with federal regulators that “shortcomings of its technical systems and processes” led to the mismatched dates.

That admission doesn’t help California’s legal position with FMCSA. It strengthens it.

If California knew it had systemic programming errors that extended CDL expiration dates beyond work authorization periods, why didn’t it fix them before the feds came knocking? That’s the question that should concern every carrier operating in interstate commerce. A CDL issued in violation of federal requirements may not be valid for interstate operation, meaning drivers holding those credentials could face enforcement action in any state, and carriers dispatching them could face significant liability exposure.

Governor Newsom told the press that DOT had agreed to the March 6 extension. Duffy says that’s not true. FMCSA Administrator Derek Barrs has been equally clear: “We will not accept a corrective plan that knowingly leaves thousands of drivers holding noncompliant licenses behind the wheel of 80,000-pound trucks in open defiance of federal safety regulations.”

California’s argument that its CDL holders are involved in fatal crashes at a rate far below the national average, and that Texas-issued licenses have a 50% higher rate of fatal crashes, might play well in press releases. It doesn’t address the fundamental regulatory compliance issue.

FMCSA didn’t withhold $160 million because of crash rates. It withheld funding because California admitted to issuing 17,000 licenses in violation of federal requirements and then refused to revoke them on the agreed timeline.

The nuclear option remains on the table, and based on everything I’ve seen from Duffy over the past six months, I wouldn’t bet against him using it.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 17:30

Stablecoins: A Quiet Revolution In Finance

Zero Hedge -

Stablecoins: A Quiet Revolution In Finance

Authored by Robert Burrows via BondVigilantes.com,

With geopolitics taking centre stage, the seismic tremors of Stablecoin activity go largely unnoticed. Stablecoins sit at a fascinating intersection of finance and technology. They promise the speed and programmability of cryptocurrencies with the price stability of traditional money.

What began as a niche settlement tool for crypto markets is now being discussed as a parallel monetary system—with profound implications for banks, credit creation, and financial stability.

What are stablecoins?

Stablecoins are digital tokens designed to maintain a stable value, usually pegged to a fiat currency like the US dollar. While there are several types, fiat-backed stablecoins dominate the market, accounting for roughly 90% of usage.

Two of the most widely used examples are USDC (Circle) and USDT (Tether). 

Both are backed by reserves, but the composition of those reserves varies:

 

Stablecoins are becoming major players in the treasury market with Tether now the 17th largest holder of treasuries on the planet.

Source: US department of Treasury as of October 2025

How are stablecoins different from cash?

If you can already pay with a bank card, does it matter if settlement takes two days instead or instantly?

For most consumers, the benefits of stablecoins look incremental compared to existing digital banking services.

But there is one notable difference: interest.

The GENIUS act and interest rules

The GENIUS Act, proclaimed by Donald Trump to have been named after himself, was signed into law in July 2025 and created a federal framework for stablecoins. Its aim is to provide regulatory clarity, consumer protection, and oversight. Crucially, the Act prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying interest directly to holders, ensuring they behave like cash rather than investment products.

However, third-party platforms, such as Coinbase or Binance can still pass through yield to users. That is, the interest earned by Circle or Tether from holding the interest bearing reserves is passed on to the exchanges, which then pass through to holders of the stablecoins through a process called ‘staking’. It is important to note that these yields are not guaranteed to be passed through and remain poorly understood, which has likely limited adoption.

Core use cases driving adoption

Payments and Settlement: Stablecoins enable near-instant, 24/7 settlement without relying on correspondent banking networks. For cross-border payments, this can be far cheaper and faster than SWIFT. Global remittance costs on average about 6.5% per transaction on flows of roughly $900 billion. Stablecoins could cut that close to zero. It’s no surprise Western Union is exploring its own stablecoin as its business model faces disruption.

Cryptocurrency market infrastructure: The cryptocurrency universe has gone from strength to strength (less so lately). Stablecoins act as the base currency of the crypto ecosystem, allowing traders to move in and out of risk assets without touching the banking system.

Financial Inclusion: In countries with weak banking systems or high inflation, dollar-pegged stablecoins offer a stable store of value without requiring a bank account. With the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency, adoption in South America and Africa is easy to imagine. Asian markets may lean towards both US-backed and yuan-backed stablecoins. Financial inclusion can cut both ways, as it may accelerate capital flight from emerging economies and funnel more funding into US debt markets.

The funding threat to banks

Banks rely on deposits to fund loans.

Stablecoins disrupt this in three ways:

  1. Deposit disintermediation: If households and corporates hold stablecoins instead of bank deposits, banks lose a cheap and stable source of funding.

  2. Reduced credit creation: Stablecoin reserves are typically invested in:

    • Treasury bills

    • Reverse repos

    • Cash at central banks

This shifts money away from private lending and towards government financing. For the US, this is convenient given its $38 trillion debt stock, with 40–45% needing rollover in the next 18 months.

  1. Pro-cyclicality risk: In a crisis, depositors may rush into stablecoins perceived as safer, amplifying stress on bank funding and making bank runs increasingly likely.

The stablecoin market is currently $300 billion in size, with bullish growth forecasts of $4 trillion by 2030. If this growth is realised, it will likely come at the expense of bank deposits and not from new external sources. This is a problem for the banks, and it won’t come as a surprise that recent crypto legislation stalled just last week amid banking industry lobbying against stablecoin interest payments. Stablecoins are not necessarily a catalyst for widening but is another concern for a sector which has spreads trading at all time tights.

To summarise, for everyday consumers, stablecoins offer little beyond what bank accounts already provide. For banks and the economy, the stakes are much higher. If stablecoins disintermediate banks, lending costs rise, credit availability shrinks, and growth slows, unless alternative credit channels scale up quickly.

The US Government will welcome the extra demand for short-term debt, but the cost could be a fundamental reshaping of the banking system.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 16:20

Newsom Announces California Will Remain In WHO Despite US Withdrawal

Zero Hedge -

Newsom Announces California Will Remain In WHO Despite US Withdrawal

California Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom announced Friday that the Golden State will remain a part of the World Health Organization's network, even though the Trump administration just completed the United States' withdrawal from the WHO.

“The Trump administration’s withdrawal from WHO is a reckless decision that will hurt all Californians and Americans,” Newsom wrote.

“California will not bear witness to the chaos this decision will bring. We will continue to foster partnerships across the globe and remain at the forefront of public health preparedness, including through our membership as the only state in WHO’s Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network.”

As Jacki Thrapp reports for The Epoch Times, Newsom, who confirmed in October that he’s considering a 2028 presidential bid, revealed the new collaboration after meeting with WHO Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland.

Newsom’s decision goes against the Trump administration’s approach to the agency, which is managed by the United Nations.

Trump, a critic of the WHO’s pandemic responses, has wanted the United States to exit the WHO ever since his first term. His administration formally made the split on Thursday.

“This action responds to the WHO’s failures during the COVID-19 pandemic and seeks to rectify the harm from those failures inflicted on the American people,” said Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr in a joint statement Jan. 22.

The Trump administration said the agency “abandoned its core mission and acted repeatedly against the interests of the United States,” even though America was a founding member and the largest financial contributor.

All U.S. funding of WHO has ended, amounting to about $111 million in annual “mandatory dues” and $570 million in “voluntary contributions,” according to the Department of Health and Human Services.

“We right these injustices and bring an end to the bureaucratic inertia, entrenched paradigms, conflicts of interest, and international politics that have rendered the organization beyond repair,” the press release by Rubio and Kennedy added.

“We will get our flag back for the Americans who died alone in nursing homes, the small businesses devastated by WHO-driven restrictions, and the American lives shattered by this organization’s inactivity. Our withdrawal is for them.”

Rubio and Kennedy said the WHO refused to give the United States its flag back after the departure announcement.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 15:45

Niall Ferguson: How Trump Won Davos

Zero Hedge -

Niall Ferguson: How Trump Won Davos

Authored by Niall Ferguson via X,

There is a rapidly forming narrative in the European and liberal media that the Europeans “won Davos”: primarily by getting Trump to “de-escalate” his demand that the United States acquire Greenland from Denmark.

This is a very wrong take.

The reality is that Trump won Davos, hands down.

And not only did he win it; he owned it.

I have never before seen a single individual so completely dominate this vast bazaar of the powerful, the wealthy, the famous, and the self-important.

Trump never seriously meant to annex Greenland or to impose new tariffs on the Europeans.

Why would he when the U.S. already enjoys all the military access to the frigid island it could every possibly need?

Fact: Trump means what he says on Truth Social only about half the time.

Ten years ago, Europeans made the mistake of taking Trump neither seriously nor literally.

Now they make the opposite mistake of treating him both seriously and literally.

The reason Trump forced Greenland to be the No. 1 topic at Davos was to keep European leaders from meddling in America’s Middle Eastern and Eastern European policy.

Why might Trump prefer the Europeans to be talking about Greenland instead of Iran or Ukraine?

Because Europe would be bound to make its usual pleas for “de-escalation” with respect to Tehran. And because the Americans think it was the EU and UK who last year impeded progress

Of course, this goes wholly counter to the Davos consensus, which is that wicked Trump has torn up the sacred liberal international order.

But, as I never grow tired of reminding you, the Davos consensus is always wrong. Always.

Read Niall's full essay here...

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 15:10

DHS Says 5-Year-Old Was "Abandoned" By Parents During ICE Operation In Minnesota

Zero Hedge -

DHS Says 5-Year-Old Was "Abandoned" By Parents During ICE Operation In Minnesota

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on Jan. 23 refuted reports that ICE agents detained a 5-year-old boy in Minnesota, saying the child was abandoned by his parents during an immigration enforcement operation.

Columbia Heights Public School District had previously said that 5-year-old Liam Conejo Ramos was taken into custody along with his father while in their driveway on Jan. 20. School officials said an ICE agent asked the child to knock on the door to see if there was anyone inside.

DHS on Friday provided details on the situation and said the primary concern of its officers was the child’s safety and welfare.

“ICE did NOT target, arrest a child or use a child as ‘bait.’ ICE law enforcement officers were the only people primarily concerned with the welfare of this child,” DHS spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin said on X.

McLaughlin said federal agents conducted a targeted operation to arrest the child’s father, identified as Adrian Alexander Conejo Arias, an illegal immigrant from Ecuador, but he fled and abandoned his child.

For safety reasons, one ICE agent remained with the child while other officers apprehended Conejo Arias, according to McLaughlin.

McLaughlin added that officers had tried to ask the “alleged mother,” who was inside the house, to take custody of the child and assured her she would not be taken into custody, but she refused.

“During this situation, agitators swarmed the scene and began yelling and blowing horns, scaring the child,” McLaughlin said.

“Following the mother’s abandonment of the child, officers abided by the father’s wishes to keep the child with him and even got the child McDonald’s and played his favorite music. Father and son are together at Dilley,” she added.

According to McLaughlin, parents are asked if they want to be removed with their children, or ICE will arrange for the children to be placed with a safe person the parent designates.

The move, she said, aligns with how the former administration conducted immigration enforcement.

Zena Stenvik, superintendent of the Columbia Heights Public School District, told a press conference that another adult living in the home, who was outside during the encounter, had begged the agents to let them take care of the child, but was denied.

“Instead, the agent took the child out of the still-running vehicle, led him to the door, and directed him to knock on the door, asking to be let in, in order to see if anyone else was home—essentially using a 5-year-old as bait,” Stenvik said.

Stenvik said Liam’s middle-school brother came home 20 minutes later to find both his father and brother missing. Two school principals from the district came to the house to offer support to the family.

The superintendent said that four students from the district, including Liam, have been apprehended by ICE so far.

The operation in Minnesota is part of the Trump administration’s broader immigration enforcement targeting illegal immigrants.

As of Jan. 19, ICE has arrested 10,000 criminal illegal immigrants, many of whom were “killing Americans, hurting children, and reigning terror in Minneapolis,” according to Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 12:50

MiB: Zach Buchwald, Russell Investments CEO and Chairman 

The Big Picture -



 

 

This week, I speak with Zach Buchwald, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of Russell Investments about his career in investing. We discuss the creation of the smart beta philosophy by Russell 40 years ago. The company also pioneered the idea of an outsourced CIO.

We discuss the transition from pensions to 401ks for retirees. Specifically, the onus for investing has moved to the individual. Zach also describes his proposal for a program, that is now in effect, for a $1000 to every newborn who’s parents open a count to show the importance of compounding.

Zach explains why being “a gay guy in finance” impacted his perspective on the industry, giving him a different viewpoint.

A list of his current reading is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Bob Moser, CEO and founder of Prime Group Holdings, a private investor in unique real estate holdings. They created Prime Storage, one of the largest, privately-held self-storage brands in the world, with over 19 million rentable square feet of space and 255 locations across 28 states and the U.S. Virgin Islands. The firm has acquired over $10 billion in real estate assets.

 

 

 

Current Reading

 

 

 

 

 

 

The post MiB: Zach Buchwald, Russell Investments CEO and Chairman  appeared first on The Big Picture.

Shockwaves In Beijing: Xi Targets His Own Top General, Longtime Confidant, In Elite Purge

Zero Hedge -

Shockwaves In Beijing: Xi Targets His Own Top General, Longtime Confidant, In Elite Purge

Another significant military purge appears underway in China, as Saturday morning the West woke up to news that China's most senior military officer, who is second only to Xi Jinping, has been put under investigation over alleged "grave violations of discipline and the law."

Gen. Zhang Youxia is a vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, the Communist Party body that controls China's armed forces, and this comes as somewhat of a major shock given he is widely regarded as President Xi's closest ally within the military - or at least prior to this.

Another member of the commission, Gen. Liu Zhenli, has also been placed under investigation, according to the Defense Ministry on the same day. He's in charge of the PLA military's Joint Staff Department.

AFP: Zhang Youxia, left, and He Weidong, the previous second ranked Vice Chairman who was purged in 2025.

No further details have been given regarding the accusations against General Zhang Youxia, but such language is often presented in such crackdowns as a euphemism for corruption.

Xi has described corruption as "the biggest threat" to the Communist Party, having previously several times warned that the struggle against it "remains grave and complex." But critics as well as Western observers say this has served as a convenient and public PR mechanism for sidelining political rivals, and strengthening Xi's power and hold on the levers of power.

The Wall Street Journal's Jonathan Cheng says that General Zhang's downfall is surprising as not only has he known Xi for decades, but is the "most senior member of military hierarchy to face dismissal since fallout of 1989 Tiananmen protests."

And a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst who follows Chinese elite politics, Christopher K. Johnson, tells the NY Times on Saturday, "This move is unprecedented in the history of the Chinese military and represents the total annihilation of the high command."

Chinese social media rumors: Previously, on the evening of January 21, there were online rumors that Zhang Youxia's suspected residence in Beijing was surrounded by plainclothes officers.

via X/@whyyoutouzhele

The rumors and speculation were rampant over the last several days, triggered by a conspicuous absence at a high-profile military event where Xi gave an address:

Two of China’s top generals, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, apparently did not attend a gathering of all of China's senior political leaders on Tuesday. Their absence has fired the starting pistol on speculation they have been purged, speculation that will now continue until confirmation or they appear in public.

The event in question was the catchily-titled Study Session for Principal Officials at the Provincial and Ministerial Level on Studying and Implementing the Spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee. President Xi Jinping attended and gave an opening speech, flanked by all six members of the Politburo Standing Committee as well as the vice president.

Eagle-eyed observers quickly noticed that while the second-ranked Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission Zhang Shengmin was sat in the audience, Zhang Youxia, who is the first-ranked vice chairman, and Liu Zhenli, who is the only non-ranking member, both appeared to be absent.

This is the latest 'anti-corruption' purge action since the October news of the expulsion of nine senior generals, which marked one of the largest such crackdowns of top military officials in decades. 

Zhang's political pedigree runs deep: his father was among the founding generals of the Chinese Communist Party. He joined the army in 1968 and is one of the few current senior leaders said to have actual combat experience. Zhang had remained in his post beyond the customary retirement age for military officials, which was understood as a sign Xi's confidence in him, until now apparently.

Pro-Beijing pundits are offering an alternative take to the Western reporting...

More to come? It is likely as WSJ's chief China's correspondent Lingling Wei describes, "And this is far from the end. With thousands of officers having risen through the ranks under Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, these individuals now recognize they are primary targets for a systemic purge." She reports that "Mobile devices have been seized across ranks and all units are now on high alert."

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 12:15

Trump Says Canada Will Face 100% Tariffs if It "Makes A Deal With China"

Zero Hedge -

Trump Says Canada Will Face 100% Tariffs if It "Makes A Deal With China"

Authored by Omid Ghoreishi via The Epoch Times,

U.S. President Donald Trump says Canadian goods exported to the United States would be hit with 100 percent tariffs if Canada makes a deal with China.

“If Governor Carney thinks he is going to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the United States, he is sorely mistaken. China will eat Canada alive, completely devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric, and general way of life,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social on the morning of Jan. 24.

“If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

The U.S. president wrote the remarks while posting a Jan. 23 article by Just the News titled, “Deal with the Devil: How Canada’s New Partnership With China Could Backfire.”

Trump’s reference to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney as “Governor” marks a return to the relations the U.S. president had with Carney’s predecessor, former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, using the title to reflect his view that Canada should be part of the United States. Trump had not previously used the title for Carney, saying on several occasions that he likes him, but relations soured after Carney delivered a speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, last week in which he levied heavy criticism at the United States.

Prior to arriving in Davos, Carney met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, where he signed a series of agreements that included slashing tariffs on Chinese EV imports from 100 percent to 6.1 percent for the first 49,000 units, in exchange for China cutting tariffs on Canadian canola from 85 percent to 15 percent until at least the end of the year. While in Beijing, Carney said Canada–China relations are entering a “new era,” and that Ottawa’s pursuit of a partnership with China “sets us up well for the new world order.”

The Epoch Times reached out to Carney’s office for comment but didn’t immediately hear back.

Cutting Tariffs on China

Trump had initially shrugged off Carney’s new deal with China, telling reporters on Jan. 16 that, “It’s a good thing for him to sign a trade deal. If he can get a deal with China, he should do that.”

But senior members of his cabinet were concerned. U.S. Transport Secretary Sean Duffy said Canada will regret the decision to partner with Beijing and allow Chinese EVs into its market. “I love my friends in Canada, but they will live to regret the day they let the Chinese Communist Party flood the market with their EVs!” Duffy said in a Jan. 17 post on X.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC on Jan. 16 that the deal is “problematic for Canada,” and that Washington had imposed tariffs to protect autoworkers. He said that while Canada made the deal to bring relief to agricultural producers, in the “long run, they’re not going to like having made that deal.”

Canada first imposed 100 percent tariffs on Chinese EVs, along with levies on steel and aluminum, in 2024, in lockstep with the United States, which has long been concerned about China dumping products.

Canada’s other deals with China include agreements on energy, public safety, and lumber.

Davos Speeches

In his speech at the WEF in Davos on Jan. 20, Carney criticized U.S. pressure to acquire Greenland, while saying middle powers should band together to resist pressure from major powers. “Great powers have begun using economic integration as weapons, tariffs as leverage, financial infrastructure as coercion, supply chains as vulnerabilities to be exploited,” he said.

Trump said the next day in his speech at the WEF that Carney “wasn’t so grateful,” adding that Canada “lives because of the United States.”

Carney said in another speech on Jan. 22 in Quebec City, this time to Canadians, that Canada “does not live because of the United States. Canada thrives because we are Canadian.”

Later that day, Trump said he is rescinding his invitation to Carney to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace that is going to help rebuild Gaza.

In another Truth Social post on Jan. 23, Trump criticized Ottawa’s position on Greenland and China, saying, “Canada is against The Golden Dome being built over Greenland, even though The Golden Dome would protect Canada. Instead, they voted in favor of doing business with China, who will ‘eat them up’ within the first year!”

Meanwhile, Beijing’s envoy to Ottawa weighed in on the Greenland issue while taking a swipe at the United States, saying this week that Canada and China “see eye to eye” on supporting Greenland’s territorial integrity, according to The Canadian Press.

Trump’s Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also criticized Carney’s recent comments and deal with China, suggesting that his recent remarks may be related to an upcoming election. He added that Ottawa’s EV deal with Beijing could jeopardize Ottawa’s chances when renegotiating the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement which is set for renewal this year.

“When the USMCA gets renegotiated this year… do you think the president of the United States is going to say you should keep having the second-best deal in the world?” he told Bloomberg on Jan. 22, making the point that Canada’s current trade deal with the United States ranks second after Mexico. Under the USMCA, 85 percent of Canadian goods are exempt from tariffs, while products not compliant with the trilateral deal face 35 percent tariffs. Mexico’s non-USMCA products are subject to 25 percent tariffs.

Carney hasn’t appeared at media press conferences since relations with Trump soured on Jan. 22, cancelling a scheduled press conference at the conclusion of a cabinet meeting in Quebec City on Jan. 23.

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, who took questions from the press instead, said Carney couldn’t attend due to a “scheduling issue.”

Carney was asked by reporters about his talks with Trump late on Jan. 22 as he walked to a cabinet meeting. He responded, “Oh, that’s the most boring question. Think of a new one.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 11:40

Larry Fink Says Public Has Lost Trust In Davos Elites And He Blames "Capitalism"

Zero Hedge -

Larry Fink Says Public Has Lost Trust In Davos Elites And He Blames "Capitalism"

The intrinsic fallacy behind the Davos conference and its supposed mission to "save the world" by molding international policy is easy to describe:  Davos is made up largely of the corporate elites, banking moguls and corrupt politicians that created the world's problems in the first place, often deliberately in order to trigger chaos and gain power. 

Why would the general public trust those people to fix the same problems they created?

This is a question that needs to be posed to BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who is currently serving as the "interim co-chair" of the WEF after Klaus Schwab's embarrassing exit.  Fink launched the Davos meetings with some stark warnings about AI, and also a surprising admission that the global populace "no longer trusts" the WEF to steer the planet in the right direction.

As noted, no one trusted the WEF before, for the same reasons that no one trusts them now.  Fink would never admit that the public despises the Davos crowd because of they operate like a cartel or cabal, constantly grasping for power while whittling down our freedoms.  Instead, the CEO blamed "capitalism" for the lack of trust. 

Fink argued that the growing wealth gap is a feature of capitalism as we know it today and that this must change.  He admonished the shift of global wealth into the hand of a narrow minority (of which his is a member) and called for the continuing institution of "shareholder capitalism" as a solution.

Shareholder capitalism, for those who are not aware, is the agenda which is directly responsible for ESG lending and the takeover of DEI in the corporate world.  The sudden surge of woke ideology in western countries was a product of corporate lenders like BlackRock and Vanguard pressuring international companies to promote wokeness in exchange for easy access to cheap credit. 

It should also be noted that the wealth gap during the decade of woke cultism (2015 to the end of 2024) increased dramatically.  Shareholder capitalism handed the top 1% another $33.9 trillion.  The wealth of the top 0.001% grew three times larger than the combined wealth of the bottom 50% of people.  In other words, shareholder capitalism expands the wealth gap, it does not reduce it.     

The World Economic Forum and orbiting globalist associations closed their latest Davos event this week looking rather subdued compared to a couple years ago.  From 2020 to 2023 the elites pulled the mask off completely and they are now hoping the public will forget and move on.

The WEF, WHO, and various captured world leaders used the covid scare to conjure up a worldwide hysteria which they intended to exploit.  Sweeping plans were made (out in the open) to institute vaccine passports which would force the population to accept regular injections of experimental treatments in order to retain the right to work and participate in the greater economy.  Intermittent national lockdowns were going to become the norm.  Digital tracking of every individual using covid apps was going to become policy. 

The globalists were going full 1984, all over a virus with a 99.8% survival rate. 

If Larry Fink and his ilk want to know why the populace distrusts them, it's not because of capitalism and free markets.  It's because they exposed themselves and their true intentions in the last several years.  They became arrogant and proved the "conspiracy theorists" right.  Once the mask comes off, it cannot be put back on. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 11:05

In Humiliating Retreat, Starmer Forced To Pull Chagos Bill After Trump Backlash

Zero Hedge -

In Humiliating Retreat, Starmer Forced To Pull Chagos Bill After Trump Backlash

Trump wins again - or rather, Europe caves again. On Friday UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer was forced into an abrupt and humiliating retreat after his plan for the Chagos Islands detonated backlash in Washington.

Starmer had been preparing to ram the controversial legislation through the House of Lords on Monday, only for the bill to be yanked late Friday on growing fears it could unravel a 60-year-old US-UK treaty, which is the foundational Cold War-era deal that allows the US to operate the Diego Garcia military base on the Chagos Islands, or what's known as the British Indian Ocean Territory. 

The chain of events this week kicked off early Tuesday with President Trump's Truth Social onslaught. Among several geopolitical-related messages, mostly on Greenland, he went after the Starmer government.

Getty Images/BBC: Diego Garcia has been home to a joint UK-US military base since the 1970s

Trump took aim at the proposed new deal under which London would surrender sovereignty (to Maritius) while leasing back the strategically critical military base on the islands, including Diego Garcia - where US forces also have a strategic Indian Ocean base, which has been used especially for Middle East operations going back decades. 

Trump attacked the plan to hand sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius as an act of "great stupidity" and "total weakness." He further took the opportunity to say the move underscored exactly why he wants the United States to take control of Greenland.

"The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY, and is another in a very long line of National Security reasons why Greenland has to be acquired. Denmark and its European Allies have to DO THE RIGHT THING," Trump wrote as his concluding sentence in the message.

The Telegraph late Friday is confirming the U-turn:

Sir Keir Starmer has been forced to pull his Chagos Islands bill in the wake of a US backlash over the deal.

The legislation was expected to be debated in the House of Lords on Monday, but was delayed on Friday night after the Conservatives warned it could violate a 60-year-old treaty with the US that enshrines British sovereignty over the archipelago.

The Foreign Office has been engaged in some last minute scrambling to verify if Trump's Truth Social message did in fact reflect active US policy:

Asked last night if Mr Trump would be willing to tear up the 1966 treaty and allow the transfer of Chagos to go ahead, the US state department referred back to the president’s criticism on Tuesday when he said: “The UK giving away extremely important land is an act of GREAT STUPIDITY.”

Still, The Telegraph notes that some confusion among British officials remains: "Much depends on whether Mr Trump’s position on the Chagos deal has genuinely changed or – as Sir Keir has claimed – that this was only being used to force a change in Britain’s Greenland stance."

"If Downing Street tried to press ahead without Washington’s approval, it could face a bruising battle with the US state department," the report concludes.

Starmer addressed the House of Commons on Wednesday and asserted it was Trump who flipped his policy. "I made out my position on Greenland absolutely clear on Monday and a moment ago. President Trump deployed words on Chagos yesterday that were different to his previous words of welcome and support when I met him in the White House," he said.

"He deployed those words yesterday for the express purpose of putting pressure on me and Britain in relation to my values and principles on the future of Greenland," he added.

From a British political commentator: "It is, I admit, a humiliating thing for Britain that the final decision should be in the hands of our American allies. We ought to have put a stop to the whole business ourselves."

Conservatives are still warning that rushing the deal for the UK to yield control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius risks violating international law, with Tory leader Kemi Badenoch having condemned the agreement outright, warning it "cannot progress while this issue remains unsolved." He has bluntly stated this week, "President Trump is right." Also, Reform's Nigel Farage praised the American president for "vetoing" it.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 10:45

House Committee Calls On IRS To Crack Down On NGOs Funding Terrorists

Zero Hedge -

House Committee Calls On IRS To Crack Down On NGOs Funding Terrorists

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The IRS must overhaul its oversight of the nonprofit sector amid the fraud scandal in Minnesota that has led to taxpayer funds being funneled for terror activities, Republicans on the House Ways and Means Committee said in a Jan. 20 statement.

House Committee on Ways and Means Chairman Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.) speaks during a hearing on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 13, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The lawmakers sent a letter to IRS Acting Commissioner Scott Bessent and CEO Frank Bisignano on Tuesday, raising concerns about “significant fraud, waste, and abuse” of taxpayer dollars.

“As you are aware, investigative journalists recently uncovered a network of fraud involving Minnesota’s Medicaid Housing Stabilization Services program and non-profit organizations in the state during the COVID-19 pandemic—a scheme that not only seemingly funneled millions, if not billions, of taxpayer dollars to the Al-Shabaab terrorist group, but has also resulted in the prosecutions of nearly 80 individuals by the Department of Justice (‘DOJ’) to date,” they wrote.

“This is unacceptable.”

Al-Shabaab is a militant wing of the Somali Council of Islamic Courts and is responsible for the assassination of several peace activists, journalists, international aid workers, and civil society personalities, according to the National Counterterrorism Center. It was designated a foreign terrorist organization in 2008 by the State Department.

During a press conference in Minneapolis on Jan. 9, Bessent said the U.S. Treasury had launched an enforcement campaign targeting Somali-linked fraud networks in Minnesota. According to Bessent, billions of dollars intended for disabled seniors, hungry children, and families with special-needs children were diverted, with some of the funds likely diverted to extremist groups such as Al-Shabaab.

“We have traced where the money went, and we are examining it,” he said, adding that the findings of the probe were “highly concerning.”

The GOP letter highlighted the issue of a Minnesota nonprofit, Feeding Our Future, that was launched to serve food to children from low-income groups. However, its promoters used more than $250 million to buy jewelry, real estate, and luxury goods.

Since 2022, dozens of people linked to Feeding Our Future have been convicted. During a Jan. 7 hearing, Minnesota state Rep. Kristin Robbins said the total fraud in this case had hit about $310 million. In addition, investigators are probing 14 Minnesota Medicaid programs, suspecting $9 billion or more in fraudulent payments.

This potential terror-financing scheme by a tax-exempt organization “calls into question the current safeguards in place to protect taxpayer dollars,” the letter said. “The concern over tax-exempt organizations funneling taxpayer dollars to designated terrorist organizations and other illicit purposes cannot be understated.”

Lawmakers called on the IRS to hold tax-exempt organizations accountable and ensure the funds do not end up in the hands of terror outfits.

Crackdown in Minnesota

Meanwhile, Minnesota is seeing stringent federal immigration enforcement activities. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem recently said that more than 10,000 illegal immigrants have been arrested in the state. The DOJ has started issuing subpoenas to top officials in Minnesota.

Responding to reports of the DOJ investigation, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s office said on Jan. 17 that they have not received any notice of a probe.

“Weaponizing the justice system and threatening political opponents is a dangerous, authoritarian tactic,” Walz said.

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey also responded to reports of him being subpoenaed in a federal probe.

“When the federal gov weaponizes its power to intimidate local leaders for doing their jobs, every American should be concerned,” Frey said in a Jan. 21 post on X.

“We shouldn’t live in a country where federal law enforcement is used to play politics or crack down on local voices they disagree with.”

Amid reports of fraud perpetrated by Somalis in Minnesota, including convictions of naturalized citizens, Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) has introduced the Stop Citizenship Abuse and Misrepresentation Act, his office said in a Jan. 19 statement.

The bill seeks to expand the denaturalization process for individuals who have committed fraud or serious felonies or joined up with terror outfits, it said.

“The rampant fraud uncovered in Minnesota must be a wakeup call,” Schmitt said.

“People who commit felony fraud, serious felonies, or join terrorist organizations like drug cartels shortly after taking their citizenship oaths fail to uphold the basic standards of citizenship. They must be denaturalized because they have proven they never met the requirements for the great honor of American citizenship in the first place.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 10:30

US Pledges To 'Starve' Iraq Of Oil Revenue If Pro-Iran Parties Join New Government

Zero Hedge -

US Pledges To 'Starve' Iraq Of Oil Revenue If Pro-Iran Parties Join New Government

Via The Cradle

Washington has threatened to block Iraq's access to its own oil revenue held in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York if representatives of Shia armed parties enjoying support from Iran are included in the next government, Reuters  reported Friday.

"The US warning was delivered repeatedly over the past two months by the US Charges d'Affaires in Baghdad, Joshua Harris, in conversations with Iraqi officials and influential Shi'ite leaders," Reuters reported, citing three Iraqi officials and one source familiar with the matter.

via AFP

The threat is part of US President Donald Trump's effort to weaken Iran through a "maximum pressure" campaign of economic sanctions, including on the Islamic Republic's oil exports. Trump also bombed Iran's nuclear sites as part of Israel's unprovoked 12-day war on Iran in June.

Because of US sanctions, few countries can trade with Iran, increasing its reliance on Iraqi markets for exports and on Baghdad's banking system as a monetary outlet to the rest of the world.

As punishment, the US government has restricted the flow of dollars to Iraqi banks on several occasions in recent years, raising the price of imports for Iraqi consumers and making it difficult for Iraq to pay for desperately needed natural gas imports from Iran.

However, this is the first time the US has threatened to cut off the flow of dollars from the New York Federal Reserve to the Central Bank of Iraq.

Officials in Washington can threaten Baghdad in this way because the country was forced to place all revenues from oil sales into an account at the New York Fed following the US military's invasion of the country in 2003.

This gives Washington strong leverage against Baghdad, as oil revenue accounts for 90 percent of the Iraqi government's budget. While occupying Iraq for decades and controlling its oil revenues, Washington accuses Iran of infringing on Iraq's sovereignty.

"The United States supports Iraqi sovereignty, and the sovereignty of every country in the region. That leaves absolutely no role for Iran-backed militias that pursue malign interests, cause sectarian division, and spread terrorism across the region," a US State Department spokesperson told Reuters.

Some Shia political parties, including several that make up the Coordination Framework (CF), are linked to the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), which see themselves as anti-terror militias formed in 2014 with Iranian support to fight ISIS and later incorporated into the Iraqi armed forces.

Iraq held parliamentary elections in November and is still in the process of forming the next government. Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Sudani, who enjoyed good relations with both Washington and Tehran, has decided not to contend for another term as premier.

The decision has cleared the way for Nouri al-Maliki, of the State of Law Coalition and the Dawa Party, to potentially return to power. 

Maliki, who enjoys support from the PMU-linked parties, served as prime minister between 2006 and 2014, including when ISIS invaded western Iraq and conquered large swathes of the country. 

Trump threatened a new bombing campaign against Iran following several weeks of violent riots and attacks on security forces organized and incited by Israeli intelligence. Trump allegedly called off the bombing after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned him that Tel Aviv's air defenses were not prepared for a new confrontation with Iran.

During the war in June, Iran retaliated against Israel by launching barrages of ballistic missiles and drones, which did severe damage to Israeli military sites, including in Tel Aviv.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 08:10

Over 2 Million Ukrainians Have Already Deserted & Or Actively Dodging The Draft

Zero Hedge -

Over 2 Million Ukrainians Have Already Deserted & Or Actively Dodging The Draft

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The 2.2 million men that are currently on the run amounts to 6.8% of the Ukrainian population and is slightly larger than the percentage of Asians in the US.

New Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov shockingly revealed that 200,000 men have already deserted thus far and ten times more (2 million) are actively dodging the draft, which are probably an underestimate but are in any case still very large numbers. To put that into context, Ukraine claimed in early 2025 to have had a population of 32 million, likely an overestimate, so the 2.2 million men who either deserted or dodged the draft amounts to at least 6.8% of the population currently on the run.

Rada Deputy Dmitry Razumkov claimed during a parliamentary session last month that his country had already lost half a million troops by then with an equal number wounded, possibly also an underestimate, while Ukraine is thought to currently field around 900,000 active troops. All of this data enables observers to better understand the significance of these “voluntary losses” since it should be clear by now that 2.2 million more troops would have certainly made a major difference for Ukraine.

That’s not to imply that it would have been able to reverse the military-strategic dynamics of the conflict that have trended in Russia’s favor since the epic failure of Ukraine’s NATO-backed counteroffensive in summer 2023, but perhaps it might have been able to decelerate the pace of its losses afterwards. Ukraine could have thus also been in a comparatively better diplomatic position too going into Trump 2.0 a year ago and that might have in turn predisposed him to a relatively harder line towards Russia as well.

For that reason, while the scale of its desertions and draft-dodging can’t credibly be described as a game-changer, it can still be considered a significant variable that adversely affected Ukraine’s fortunes. By contrast, this was never a relevant factor for Russia, which hasn’t conscripted anyone unlike Ukraine. On that topic, it’s worthwhile reminding readers about Ukraine’s forcible conscription policy that’s been made infamous by viral videos showing officials snatching young and old men alike off the streets.

This footage and stories that draft-eligible males (25-60 years of age) heard through the grapevine are partly why 2 million of them decided to go on the run and dodge the draft. They’ve also seen drone footage of the conflict zone and are therefore well aware of how likely it is that they’ll be killed shortly after being deployed to the front. These men might sincerely consider themselves to be Ukrainian patriots in their hearts, however they conceptualize it, but they’re not willing to die for nothing.

This segues into the plummeting popularity of the conflict among the populace and increasing support for a quick end thereto per recent Gallup polling. Trump just blamed Zelensky for stalling peace talks, which is in direct opposition to the will of the same people in whose name he still acts despite the expire of his term in May 2024. Other than his authoritarian tendencies, corruption is likely responsible for his obstinance since he’s thought to be profiting from the conflict and might thus fear charges once it ends.

Whenever he’s asked about the conflict, Trump usually says that he wants to end it as soon as possible in order to stop the killing, which it’s now known has spooked at least 2.2 million Ukrainian men into either deserting or dodging the draft. The 6.8% of the population that’s currently on the run is slightly larger than the Asian population in the US (6.7%) per the last census. The sooner that the conflict ends, the sooner that they can re-enter the economy and help rebuild their country, unless they flee abroad first.

Tyler Durden Sat, 01/24/2026 - 07:00

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• Netflix’s $82.7 billion rags-to-riches story: How the DVD-by-mail company swallowed Hollywood. It’s a story so good it could have been a screenplay. In 2000, Reed Hastings and Marc Randolph sat down across from John Antioco, then CEO of video rental giant Blockbuster, and pitched him on acquiring their still unprofitable DVD-by-mail startup, Netflix, which at the time had around 300,000 subscribers. But when they told him their price—$50 million and the chance to develop and run Blockbuster’s online rental business—Antioco balked. By 2010, Blockbuster had filed for bankruptcy, and Netflix had stormed Hollywood with its entertainment streaming service. (Fortune)

• Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger and the Reading Unlock: One Buffett lesson I’ll share with my kid: read, read, read. (SatPost by Trung Phan)

• The Multidisciplinary Approach to Thinking. Using a true multidisciplinary understanding of things, Peter identifies two often overlooked, parabolic “Big Ideas”: 1) Mirrored Reciprocation (go positive and go first) and 2) Compound Interest (being constant). A great “Life Hack” is to simply combine these two into one basic approach to living your life: “Go positive and go first, and be constant in doing it.” (Farnam Street)

• The Crisis Whisperer: how Adam Tooze makes sense of our bewildering age: Whether it’s the financial crash, the climate emergency or the breakdown of the international order, historian Adam Tooze has become the go-to guide to the radical new world we’ve entered. (The Guardian)

• The Shape of Time: In the 19th century, the linear idea of time became dominant, forever changing how those in the West experience the world. (Aeon)

• GLP-1s And Your Brain: The Surprising Impact On Addiction, Anxiety, ADHD, And More: What started out as a medication for diabetes and weight loss is offering something unexpected—and completely life-changing—for many women. (Womens Health)

• The Education of the Broligarchy: The same sources that inspired tech moguls to bend matter, minds, and markets to their will may also help explain their foray into other forms of power (Colossus)

• Can Congress Still Check the Commander in Chief? Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, discusses Venezuela, NATO and the limits of congressional power as global crises multiply. (Bloomberg)

• An exclusive look inside the largest effort ever mounted to keep the Great Barrier Reef alive: Australia is doing absolutely everything to protect its most iconic ecosystem — except, perhaps, the one thing that really matters. (Vox)

• Mike Macdonald is a genius, but that’s not the only reason his Seahawks are Super Bowl favorites: The Seahawks are arguably the best team in football because they have elite talent. But everyone in the NFL has talent, especially in the postseason. Marrying that talent with the vision and bringing it to life, Macdonald believes, starts with intent and attitude. That’s their foundation for getting players to play fast and free. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Zach Buchwald, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Russell Investments. The global investment firm was founded in 1936, and today has ~$370 billion in AUM. Previously, he had a 15-year tenure at BlackRock, where he served as the head of its $2 trillion Institutional Business, leading the company’s Financial Institutions Group and helped establish its Retirement Solutions and Financial Markets Advisory platforms.

 

January 2026 set to be a record in Geopolitics

Source: Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Suicidal Empathy Is Another Front In The CCP's Hybrid War

Zero Hedge -

Suicidal Empathy Is Another Front In The CCP's Hybrid War

Authored by Stu Cvrk via The Epoch Times,

The theory of suicidal empathy is gaining increasing currency among people who are deeply concerned about the apparent fracturing of Western civilization, particularly American culture.

Suicidal empathy can be defined as excessive or misdirected compassion expressed by individuals or groups that prioritizes short-term emotional responses over cultural norms and long-term societal stability and personal well-being. Over time, the concept can lead to self-destructive outcomes for individuals (the loss of traditional values in favor of equity and other false gods) or societies (robust nationalism replaced by unchecked multiculturalism and moral decay).

A good example is the European Union’s embrace of open borders policies that led to the flood of people from the Middle East and Africa in the name of “empathy for poor people” without regard to assimilation.

Who gains from this chaos and angst?

Any distress that destabilizes Western civilization serves the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which exploits anything that undermines the United States and its allies.

Some observers believe that Beijing covertly amplifies the elements of suicidal empathy in the West—excessive compassion, cultural relativism, polarization, and over-tolerance of immigrants who refuse to assimilate—as a low-cost, asymmetric front in its hybrid war against the United States.

Let us examine the issue.

What Is Suicidal Empathy?

Lebanese–Canadian evolutionary psychologist Gad Saad coined the term in 2024 to describe excessive, misdirected, or hyperactive empathy that becomes self-destructive. As with anyone who postulates a new concept, he is considered by some to be a “controversial figure.”

Saad is the author of “The Parasitic Mind: How Infectious Ideas Are Killing Common Sense,” a university professor at Concordia University’s John Molson School of Business, and a frequent presence on X (@GadSaad), podcasts (such as “The Joe Rogan Experience”), and YouTube. He explains how suicidal empathy fuels open borders, cultural chaos, and self-sabotage in the United States and the West in general.

He argues that suicidal empathy leads some to prioritize the needs of illegal immigrants over those of citizens and veterans, to show leniency toward criminals and addicts in the name of compassion, to refuse to confront national threats for fear of “appearing unkind,” and to value the appearance of being kind and empathetic even when the result is harmful to individuals or society.

Saad maintains that prioritizing compassion for potential threats, outsiders, or criminals over one’s own group’s safety, security, and long-term survival has led to questionable policy choices by liberal governments in the West.

Saad is critical of “woke” culture, political correctness, Islamofascism, and what he calls the Marxist corruption of academia, which he groups as “idea pathogens”—harmful ideologies that spread like parasites and supplant traditional moral, political, and cultural values, particularly those rooted in Judeo–Christian philosophy.

Critics argue that elite-driven immigration policies, motivated by suicidal empathy, have downplayed assimilation requirements, contributing to the persistence of culturally insular communities. They often point to debates surrounding Islamist activism or illiberal norms within some immigrant-heavy areas of Minnesota, Michigan, and Texas as illustrative cases.

House Oversight and Government Reform Committee Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) confer during a hearing about fraud in Minnesota at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 7, 2026. Federal prosecutors filed charges against dozens of people in Minnesota, many from the area’s Somali community, for stealing taxpayer dollars through fraudulent social services schemes. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Perhaps even more consequential are the recent federal prosecutions uncovering large-scale fraud schemes involving Somali-American defendants, most notably the Feeding Our Future case in Minnesota, which prosecutors say siphoned roughly $250 million from a federal child-nutrition program. The scandal exposed serious failures of state and federal oversight and further eroded public trust in government institutions.

A combination of bureaucratic incompetence, risk aversion, and fear of appearing discriminatory allowed the fraud to persist longer than it should have. This reluctance to enforce rules rigorously—suicidal empathy—can weaken accountability and invite abuse, ultimately harming both taxpayers and the very communities such policies are meant to protect

These fractures in American society serve the CCP, as whatever distracts, disrupts, weakens, or causes chaos among Americans is considered good by the communists.

CCP Exploitation of Suicidal Empathy

“Unrestricted Warfare,” an important 1999 book by People’s Liberation Army Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, advocates the use of “unrestricted” or “beyond-limits” warfare, emphasizing non-military methods to weaken adversaries such as the United States without resorting to direct armed conflict.

“Beyond limits” has since been expanded to include all forms of hybrid warfare, short of kinetic warfare. While suicidal empathy was unknown in 1999, it is not a stretch to speculate that the CCP has embraced it as another important front in its ever-expanding hybrid warfare against the United States.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping would appear to recognize and champion chaos as a means to achieve Chinese global dominance, as his statement from 2021 indicates: “The world today is undergoing a great change in situation unseen in a century. Since the most recent period, the most important characteristic of the world is, in a word, ‘chaos,’ and this trend appears likely to continue.” And societal chaos is a direct result of suicidal empathy.

The CCP uses united front actions to influence Western academia and media to exploit political and societal divisions in their ongoing hybrid war. By leveraging proxies, disinformation, funding networks, and diaspora communities, the CCP amplifies polarization in the United States on issues such as race and identity politics, immigration and open borders, and the cancel culture, turning them into tools for societal upheaval and chaos.

Chinese state media, Chinese embassies, and CCP-funded nonprofit groups publicly express empathy for protected classes in America, the underprivileged, and especially illegal aliens from the Third World in a synergistic effort to amplify the suicidal empathy being pushed by American elites.

The Chinese regime routinely deploys fake social media accounts on platforms such as Facebook and Instagram to inflame public discourse and encourage street protests. For example, during the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests (as a classic example of suicidal empathy in action), CCP state media and influence networks amplified narratives that portrayed the United States as racially oppressive and chaotic. Pro-CCP actors on social media posed as American activists to escalate calls for defunding police and radical reforms, aiming to prolong disorder and erode public faith in law enforcement and American institutions in general.

The CCP also directly or indirectly funds certain activist groups that promote “woke” ideology and street protests against ICE agents and law enforcement personnel in general, while using state-backed media such as CGTN or TikTok algorithms to further amplify social discord and division among Americans.

For example, Neville Roy Singham, an American tech millionaire living in Shanghai, is allegedly the “main backer” of the Party for Socialism and Liberation (to the tune of $20 million) through nonprofits such as the Justice and Education Fund and the United Community Fund. PSL has organized nationwide protests against ICE, including the 2025 Los Angeles riots, where they were implicated in violence in the streets and civil unrest.

Singham’s pro-CCP network of radical organizations also allegedly funds the National Students for Justice in Palestine (NSJP) and The People’s Forum, which promote Marxist education and progressive causes on campuses, such as immigrant rights and anti-racism, and also support anti-ICE campus protests while promoting “woke” themes like social justice and anti-oppression.

Concluding Thoughts

Did Gad Saad hit paydirt by theorizing that the practical results of decades of putting Marxist critical theory into practice in America are—as he puts it—a “tsunami of unmodulated kindness,” “parasitized suicidal empathy,” or an “orgiastic, hyperactive form of empathy” that are undermining Western civilization?

The CCP has certainly figured that out, as its actions to spread and exacerbate chaos in America, as described above, elucidate. Whatever undermines the United States from within advances its hybrid warfare objectives and world domination goals.

What is the surest sign that the CCP understands the effectiveness—and threats of—suicidal empathy?

It is the communists who stamp out all vestiges of it in China. The CCP has historically viewed universal empathy, compassion, or spiritual beliefs among individuals as potential threats to its authority, often labeling them as “superstitions” to justify eradication, persecution, and suppression—with Falun Gong adherents and minorities (such as Tibetans, Uyghurs) as among the victims. The CCP prioritizes atheism, nationalism, and Party loyalty over individual or humanitarian concerns, subordinating empathy for individuals to collective goals.

Meanwhile, the CCP is working behind the scenes to promote suicidal empathy in America.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 01/23/2026 - 23:25

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