The DOL reported:

In the week ending December 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 199,000, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 214,000 to 215,000. The 4-week moving average was 218,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 216,750 to 217,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 218,750.

My morning train WFH reads:

• The Unexpected Winner of Rising American Tariffs Is Mexico: Its exports to the U.S. have surged since President Trump imposed new duties on countries this year. (Wall Street Journal)

• Earth Is Running Out of Sand … Which Is, You Know, Pretty Concerning: Sand is the second most-used resource after water, but it’s unregulated and ripping environments apart. (Popular Mechanics) see also A huge cache of critical minerals found in Utah may be the largest in the US: The discovery could reshape the clean energy supply chain. (Grist)

• Car Payments Now Average More Than $750 a Month. Enter the 100-Month Car Loan. This fall, typical new car broke $50,000 barrier; ‘We don’t have $300 monthly payments any longer.’ (Wall Street Journal)

• Is the Federal Reserve truly independent? Who will be chosen as the chair of the Federal Reserve? (Washington Post)

• New York’s Congestion Pricing Is Working. Five Charts Show How: Congestion pricing is working as planned, with a significant drop in pollution and traffic declining by 11% in the tolled zone. The Metropolitan Transportation Authority is poised to beat its target of generating $500 million of revenue from the program after expenses. Despite initial concerns, the business impact in the district doesn’t appear to be as onerous as some had feared, with a 3.4% increase in visitors and a 6.3% boost in sales-tax revenue. (CityLab)

• The Santa Presidency: Trying to fix the economy by handing out cash. (The Atlantic)

• How diamonds are powering a new quantum revolution: By inserting tiny imperfections into the stones, scientists open up possibilities in computing, encryption, and sensors. (Financial Times)

• The Nordic diet can help you sleep better and live longer: The Mediterranean diet’s colder-climate cousin comes with the same health benefits thanks to its combination of anti-inflammatory- and antioxidant-rich foods. (National Geographic)

• Here Are 5 Wars Trump Started or Expanded in 2025: The U.S. military is fighting or preparing to fight in more countries than it was when the self-proclaimed “peace president” took office. (Reason) see also 25 Worst Villains of the Trump Admin: This most difficult part of this exercise was only picking 25. (Meidas+)

• The intellect of LeBron James: As the NBA great nears retirement he shows how the mind works. (Washington Post)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview with comedian Jay Leno, former Tonight Show host, and creator of Jay Leno’s Garage.

 

Almost no jobs have been added to the American economy since April 2025; 710,000 more people are unemployed since November 2024.

Source: Robert Reich

 

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The post 10 New Year’s Eve AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

America Is Arguing About Free Speech... The World Is Putting People In Prison For It

Authored by Matt Schlapp via The Epoch Times,

As the freest nation in the world, America has long understood the value of free speech—not as an abstract ideal, but as a fundamental right.

The Conservative Political Action Conference’s (CPAC) newly released 2025 “Freedom of Speech Around the World Ratings” cut through the noise with a simple question: Does a country imprison or execute citizens for speech protected by the U.S. First Amendment? The purpose is not to deny America’s internal struggles, but to draw a clear line between nations that debate speech and those that punish it with prison or death.

President Donald J. Trump underscored the stakes during his most recent Cabinet meeting, warning that America is nearing a consequential turning point, one in which the nation must decide whether to restore trust and order in its institutions, or follow other countries down a path where breakdown is met not with reform but with censorship.

This debate is real. But a volatile argument is not the same as criminalization. Having different political views should not result in violence or jail.

We have already seen alarming flashes of how volatile debates over speech and ideology have become in America. The assassination of Charlie Kirk underscored those dangers in stark terms. Universities should be places where young people learn to engage ideas, challenge arguments, and think for themselves, and not be arenas where disagreement turns hostile or deadly.

The results of CPAC’s ratings should sober every American.

The worst offenders, Iran, North Korea, Russia, and Syria, score zero. These regimes openly imprison or execute people for words and ideas. More troubling, however, are developed democracies that still describe themselves as free. Several now jail citizens for speech that would be constitutionally protected in the United States.

In Switzerland, a man was sentenced to jail for insulting a journalist. In the United Kingdom, a citizen spent months behind bars for posting stickers labeled “hate speech,” many criticizing illegal immigration and public-safety failures. British authorities later acknowledged ideology played a role in the punishment.

France, Germany, and Canada all score just 20 percent in CPAC’s index. In Canada, the consequences are especially stark. A father, Robert Hoogland, served prison time for refusing to use compelled language regarding his daughter’s gender identity. His crime was not violence or harassment, it was speech, and a refusal to surrender parental conscience to the state.

Australia, often assumed to be a free-speech peer of the United States, also scores poorly. After a religiously motivated stabbing incident, authorities responded not by reinforcing public order but by expanding speech restrictions and online censorship. Using tragedy to justify silencing dissent has become an increasingly common pattern abroad.

This is how free societies slide.

Governments do not begin by banning obvious truths. They start by criminalizing offense, tone, or dissenting ideology. Over time, disagreement itself becomes punishable, debate gives way to intimidation, and silence replaces persuasion.

The United States still stands apart.

America received a perfect score in CPAC’s ratings—not because we are flawless, but because we remain the only nation on Earth with both a constitutional guarantee of free speech and a judicial system that still enforces it.

Even amid fierce internal debate, speech in America remains a right, not a privilege.

That makes the United States not just an outlier, but a model that other nations should be moving toward, not away from.

But a strong score today is not a permanent guarantee.

America’s free-speech culture depends not only on laws, but on restraint. Political movements across the spectrum are free to argue their case in the marketplace of ideas. What must be resisted is the temptation to silence opponents through state power, mob intimidation, or violence.

There have been close calls. The prosecution of Douglass Mackey for a political meme tested the limits of speech protection. His conviction was later overturned on appeal, and he never spent a day in prison. That outcome matters. When free speech survives the close cases, the culture remains free. When it fails, conformity follows.

The lesson for Americans is not complacency, it is vigilance. Around the world, prison cells reveal what happens when nations choose control over debate. The United States still has time to choose wisely, but only if freedom is defended before it is rationed.

To view the full CPAC Freedom of Speech Ratings and country scorecards, click HERE.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 20:05

Vegas Police Roll Out Fleet Of Tesla Cybertrucks After $2.7M Donation

Last month, the Las Vegas police department became the first in the US to deploy a fleet of Tesla Cybertrucks for patrol, according to The Guardian.

The 10 black-and-white vehicles, equipped with sirens and emergency lights, were donated — costing taxpayers nothing, according to Sheriff Kevin McMahill.

“They represent something far bigger than just a police car,” McMahill said. “They represent innovation.”

News of the trucks first emerged in February when McMahill posted renderings on X, writing “These are badass.”

The department later said the fleet “was entirely donated by an anonymous supporter.” That donor was soon revealed as Silicon Valley investor Ben Horowitz and his wife Felicia, who live in Las Vegas and have long supported the police department. Their donation — worth about $2.7m — included 10 patrol vehicles and one Swat “sting protector” and was finalized in January 2025 through a law-enforcement charity called Behind the Blue.

“As we’ve discussed, the use of these vehicles would represent a groundbreaking approach to modern policing,” wrote police chief of staff Mike Gennaro in a December 2024 email. “The morale of the cops will be through the roof when these show up at their substations… And we will use them as a tool to keep morale high and cops productive.”

The trucks were retrofitted by California firm UpFit with tactical gear, barrier shields, radios and ladders. One Swat vehicle will be used in situations involving “barricaded suspects and hostage incidents.” Tesla’s high-speed “beast mode” was removed from all vehicles.

Reaction has been mixed. Athar Haseebullah of the ACLU of Nevada said the vehicles appear to endorse Tesla CEO Elon Musk. “I recognize that LVMPD sees value in having cool-looking vehicles around… But the reality is that for communities, that’s not what they’re asking for,” he said. “They’re asking to feel safer. I don’t know that a Tesla Cybertruck makes anybody feel any safer.”

The Guardian writes that other US cities have faced backlash over Tesla fleet purchases, while several California police departments testing Tesla sedans have said the vehicles are ill-suited to modern policing.

The donation also comes as Cybertruck sales slump and the model faces repeated recalls — including defects involving side panels, accelerator pedals and light bars. Despite Musk’s claims that the truck is “apocalypse-proof” and “really tough, not fake tough,” the vehicle has struggled in the market and is banned in Europe for pedestrian safety concerns.

“Why didn’t they pick any other type of vehicle?” Haseebullah asked. “Why would a Tesla be more efficient for police to utilize than a Ford?”

McMahill remains enthusiastic. For him, the trucks are about building “the most technologically advanced police department on the planet.”

“These trucks are high performance and they’re built tough,” he said. “Cops are going to look kinda cool in them too.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 19:40

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 8:30 AM, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  

Amid Economic Crisis, Mossad-Affiliated X Account Encourages Further Protests In Iran

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

A Farsi-language X account claiming to represent Israel’s Mossad encouraged protests in Iran on Monday and suggested that the Israeli spy agency has operatives involved in demonstrations on the ground.

"Let’s come out to the streets together. The time has come. We are with you. Not just from afar and verbally. We are with you in the field as well," the account, which Israeli media is treating as an official mouthpiece for the Mossad, said in Farsi.

Protesters demonstrate against poor economic conditions in Tehran on December 29, 2025. Source: Fars News Agency/ZUMA Press Wire via Reuters Connect

The protests in Iran were sparked by surging inflation, a collapsing currency, and an overall worsening economic situation in the country, which is under heavy US sanctions.

Amid the demonstrations, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accepted the resignation of the head of Iran’s central bank.

"The livelihood of the people is my daily concern. We have fundamental actions on the agenda to reform the monetary and banking system and preserve the purchasing power of the people," Pezeshkian wrote on X on Monday.

"I have tasked the Minister of the Interior to hear the legitimate demands of the protesters through dialogue with their representatives, so that the government can act with all its might to resolve problems and respond responsibly," the Iranian president added.

US and Israeli officials have jumped on the protests to push their agenda against the Iranian government. "The people of Iran want freedom. They have suffered at the hands of the Ayatollahs for too long," US Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said on X.

Videos shared online show students at Tehran University chanting "Death to the dictator" as security forces withdrew while protesters moved toward the campus main gate. pic.twitter.com/lT41B1sfjx

— Faytuks Network (@FaytuksNetwork) December 30, 2025

"We stand with Iranians in the streets of Tehran and across the country as they protest a radical regime that has brought them nothing but economic downturn and war," Waltz added.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet posted a video to social media urging Iranians to "rise up."

Machine translated version of Mossad post from the Farsi original...

The US and Israeli encouragement of the protests in Iran comes as President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are plotting another war against the country.

While hosting Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago, Trump said on Monday that he would support Israeli attacks on Iran if Tehran "continues" its missile program.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 19:15

"Significant Safety Concerns" After Salem, Oregon Appoints Convicted Killer To Public Safety Boards

Salem, Oregon, is facing backlash after appointing Kyle Hedquist — a convicted murderer whose sentence for a 1995 killing was later commuted — to two influential public safety bodies: the city’s Community Police Review Board and its Civil Service Commission, which oversee police conduct and public safety employment matters, according to Newser and KOIN.

Marion County District Attorney Paige Clarkson, who opposed Hedquist’s 2022 release by then-Gov. Kate Brown, condemned the decision. In a statement Tuesday, she said that while people who have completed their sentences and demonstrated rehabilitation can contribute to society, "this is not one of them," adding that police and firefighters "have a right to expect better from city leadership."

She also renewed her warning of "significant safety concerns" and urged the city to adopt "common sense standards" for appointments tied directly to public safety workers.

The article writes that city leaders themselves appear split. In separate Facebook posts, council members signaled disagreement over whether Hedquist’s appointments should be reconsidered. Councilor Vanessa Nordyke said Tuesday that, after pressure from local police and firefighter unions, she had reversed her position and now supports removing Hedquist from the boards, according to the Salem Reporter.

Hedquist was previously profiled by The Oregonian among former “lifers” who made “a swift switch from Oregon prisons to insider politics.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 18:50

The Most Prominent Buzzwords For The US Economy In 2025 Were "Affordability" And "Layoffs"

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

If you are having a really difficult time keeping up with the rapidly rising cost of living, you are certainly not alone.  This year, “affordability” was a buzzword that was constantly on the lips of politicians, economists and talking heads on television.  As you will see below, Americans are being slammed by rising prices from a multitude of directions.  Meanwhile, “layoffs” has been another buzzword that has been widely used in 2025.  Thanks to the rise of AI and our steadily deteriorating economy, we have seen far more mass layoffs this year than we did last year.  Unfortunately, one survey has found that executives are gearing up for an even larger round in 2026.

This is what happens when you flood the system with money and you go into unprecedented amounts of debt.

Eventually a day of reckoning arrives.

Ever since the Great Recession, our leaders have been pursuing highly inflationary policies, and now the American people “are yelling about affordability”…

Affordability has been a source of household frustration and a key focus of political discourse in recent months, as prices for everyday goods and services continue to rise.

“People are yelling about affordability,” said Martha Gimbel, executive director and co-founder of the Budget Lab at Yale University. “I think it’s very obviously become a political flash point,” she said.

It wasn’t a foregone conclusion that things would turn out this way.

If we had made different choices, we would have gotten different results.

But we can’t go back and change the past now.  At this point, things are so bad that “affordability” has become the number one concern for U.S. voters…

A University of Michigan poll published in December shows that high prices remain a pain point for consumers. About 46% blame high prices for poor personal finances — among the highest shares since the series started in the late 1970s.

Consumers’ views of their current financial situation in December “collapsed” into negative territory for the first time since July 2022, the month after pandemic-era inflation had peaked, according to a poll published Tuesday by the Conference Board.

Overall, 65% of U.S. households say the cost of living has gotten worse or much worse in the past year, according to a recent Politico poll.

Healthcare costs have risen particularly rapidly.

One 62-year-old man that was recently interviewed by Business Insider openly admitted that he cannot afford to get sick, but he can’t afford to be healthy either…

David Deal’s 2026 outlook is what he describes as a “whack-a-mole of worry.” While he’s 62 and presumably approaching retirement, 65 is “just a number” for him, not a milestone marker for throwing in the towel on his career like his parents’ generation. The thing that really has him wound up, though, is healthcare, which he calls a “DEFCON 1” situation. Deal, a marketing consultant who lives in the Chicago suburbs, and his wife pay for their own insurance, and their premiums are going up by 25% next year. He’s worried one slip on the ice this winter could mean financial disaster. A family member’s recent two-hour trip to the ER cost them thousands of dollars, even with insurance, and the episode has him spooked.

“For me, it’s the double-whammy of skyrocketing premiums and also the skyrocketing costs of actually getting care,” he says. “We are literally at a point where we can’t afford to be sick, and we can’t afford to be healthy.”

He emphasizes that he means a collective “we” — he knows he’s far from alone in his predicament.

Health insurance premiums are set to rise even higher in 2026, and many Americans are cancelling their policies as a result.

When you don’t have health insurance, you just pray that you don’t get sick.

If you do get sick, it can be a financial disaster.

Meanwhile, one recent survey discovered that 75 percent of Americans have “reduced spending in other areas” just so that they can afford to pay for their groceries…

But whatever their preferences, many shoppers still fretted about how to pay for their groceries. More than 2 in 3 respondents (67.6%) said that they’re struggling to pay grocery bills because of inflation and rising food prices, according to a survey by Swiftly, which provides digital and media solutions for brick-and-mortar supermarkets.

More than 3 out of 4 (75.2%) responded that they’ve reduced spending in other areas to afford groceries, and in a follow-up question selected what areas they’ve cut spending in the most to pay grocery bills, with entertainment spending the most likely to be cut, followed by spending on travel, clothing, and going out to eat or drink.

Government bureaucrats keep telling us that food prices are not going up very quickly.

But everyone can see that they are wrong.

And going out to eat has become a luxury that most of the population simply cannot afford on a regular basis.  As a result, restaurants are closing down at a staggering pace…

New data shows that 2025 was a record year for restaurant closures in the District.

The Restaurant Association of Metropolitan Washington (RAMW) reports 92 restaurants closed their doors this year, compared to 73 closures in 2024 and 48 in 2022.

Purchasing a new vehicle has also become a luxury that most of the population simply cannot afford any longer.

Since the early days of the pandemic, the average price of a new vehicle has gone from less than $38,000 to more than $50,000…

Americans are shelling out record car payments — and now some are signing up for loans stretching nearly a decade to get a new set of wheels.

The average monthly payment for a new car hit about $760 in November, according to industry-research firm J.D. Power, after the typical new-vehicle price surged past the $50,000 mark this fall — up from less than $38,000 in early 2020.

With sticker shock everywhere, buyers are leaning hard on longer financing to keep payments from exploding — even if that means paying far more interest over time.

Some dealers are now stretching out vehicle payments for 100 months so that people can actually afford them.

To me, that is absolutely insane.

But this is the economic system that we live in now.

It is designed to get us into as much debt as possible, and at this stage U.S. households are a whopping 18.6 trillion dollars in debt…

The Federal Reserve signaled a higher bar for 2026 interest rate cuts at its December meeting, potentially snatching away a much-needed reprieve for millions of Americans saddled with debt.

Household debt ballooned to a record $18.6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025, and the central bank is expected to lower its benchmark rate just once or twice next year to soften borrowing costs.

Americans have never been more overextended than they are right now.

It was another record year for credit card debt during the holiday season, but vast numbers of our fellow citizens are still paying off credit card debt from Christmas 2024.

Getting deep into debt in this very challenging economic environment is very foolish, because most people do not have jobs that are secure.

In fact, job security is now the number two concern for U.S. voters…

Job security rose to workers’ second-most pressing concern this year, after covering their monthly expenses, according to a new survey by Mercer.

While “covering monthly expenses” had been the leading concern for the past three annual surveys, fears around job loss jumped from seventh place in 2023 to second place in 2025, where it was tied with being able to retire and work-life balance. Mercer did not conduct this survey in 2024.

Throughout this year, I have documented so many of the mass layoffs that have been occurring all over the nation.

For example, Tyson Foods has announced that a beef processing facility in Lexington, Nebraska will be shut down permanently next month, and that means that approximately 3,200 workers will be losing their jobs.

A reporter that visited Lexington discovered that fear of what those layoffs would mean had gripped the entire area…

On a frigid day after Mass at St. Ann’s Catholic Church in rural Nebraska, worshipers shuffled into the basement and sat on folding chairs, their faces barely masking the fear gripping their town.

There are only about 11,000 people living in Lexington, and so these layoffs have the potential to turn it into a ghost town…

“Suddenly they tell us that there’s no more work. Your world closes in on you,” Alejandra Gutierrez said

She and the others work at Tyson Foods’ beef plant and are among the 3,200 people who will lose their jobs when Lexington’s biggest employer closes the plant next month after more than two decades of operation.

Hundreds of families may be forced to pack up and leave the town of 11,000, heading east to Omaha or Iowa, or south to the meatpacking towns of Kansas or beyond, causing spinoff layoffs in Lexington’s restaurants, barbershops, grocers, convenience stores and taco trucks.

There are so many other examples that I could share with you.

In Michigan, the closure of a facility in Detroit will mean that more than a thousand General Motors employees will be out of work starting on January 5th…

According to WARN Act notices filed in November, 1,140 General Motors employees will be let go from the company’s Factory Zero site in Detroit, Michigan on January 5.

In a filing with the Michigan Department of Labor and Economic Opportunity, General Motors said the cuts would be permanent, affect several roles, and stemmed from adjustments related to the slower-than-expected adoption of electric vehicles.

Sadly, this is just the beginning.

According to one recent survey, over one-third of all large companies intend to slash their payrolls during the months ahead…

In November, executive search firm Spencer Stuart asked 90 chief marketing officers how aggressively they plan to use AI to shrink payrolls, the Wall Street Journal reported.

More than one in three executives said that they expect to hand out pink slips in the next 12 to 24 months as they deploy more computer agents.

The trend is even worse among bigger companies.

Nearly half the executives at firms worth more than $20 billion said they’re planning significant job cuts.

If this survey is accurate, we could see millions of layoffs over the next couple of years.

Just think about that.

We were warned that this was going to happen.

Now it is playing out right in front of our eyes.

And survey after survey is indicating that the American people are quite gloomy about where economic conditions are heading next…

Americans are ending 2025 significantly more pessimistic about the direction of their financial situations than they were at the start of the year, according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge from early December. Its reading on personal finance expectations is 12% below where it was at the beginning of the year. A November consumer survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York similarly found that people are increasingly gloomy about their current and future finances, and their expectations for increased medical care costs are at their highest levels since January 2014.

If you understand what is happening, that will help you to make better decisions.

When conditions get tough, those that are wise tighten things up.

Sadly, most of the population continues to party as if tomorrow will never come, but no matter how hard one may try it is impossible to stop the inexorable march of time.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 18:25

Starbucks Shuttering About 400 Locations, 40+ In New York City Alone

Starbucks is quietly shrinking its physical footprint in some of the nation’s largest cities, signaling a major shift for a brand that spent decades in near-constant expansion, according to WSMV. The company intends to eliminate about 400 US locations, with the heaviest impact in major metro areas. Closures are already underway — New York City alone has lost 42 stores.

Company leaders say the move reflects changing consumer patterns and a tougher business environment. Urban markets are saturated with competitors, foot traffic has not fully recovered as remote work remains common, and operating costs continue to climb. Going forward, Starbucks plans to concentrate on a smaller number of higher-performing locations and introduce new store formats beginning in 2026.

A Starbucks spokesperson confirmed the strategy to WSMV in an emailed statement: “Starbucks regularly evaluates our portfolio of coffeehouses to make sure that we are meeting the needs of our customers. Opening and closing stores is a standard part of our business, and we don’t have additional news in the US or elsewhere to share.”

The company has not released a full list of affected locations.

The retrenchment follows earlier staffing reductions. Over the past two years, Starbucks has trimmed corporate and support roles as part of ongoing cost controls, while also restructuring some operations teams tied to store management. Those job cuts marked a shift away from the rapid hiring of the post-pandemic boom.

More broadly, workforce reductions have become a defining feature of the 2025 economy. Companies across technology, retail, finance and media have announced layoffs amid slowing growth, persistent inflation pressures, automation investments and evolving workplace models.

The trend underscores how many major employers are recalibrating after years of aggressive expansion.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 18:00

Judge Blocks White House's Attempt To Defund Consumer Watchdog Agency

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge ruled Tuesday that the White House cannot lapse its funding of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), a watchdog that has long drawn the ire of congressional Republicans.

In a ruling, U.S. District Judge Amy Berman Jackson wrote that the CFPB should continue to receive its funding from the Federal Reserve despite the central bank operating at a loss. The Trump administration has argued that the CFPB should be dissolved because how it gets its funds is invalid.

The CFPB has largely been inoperable since President Donald Trump was sworn into office nearly a year ago. Its employees are mostly forbidden from doing any work, and most of the bureau’s operations this year have been to unwind the work it did under President Joe Biden and even under Trump’s first term.

The head of the White House’s budget office, Russell Vought, is currently the acting head of the CFPB. The White House earlier this year issued a “reduction in force” for the CFPB, which would have furloughed or laid off much of the bureau.

In November, the Trump administration’s attorneys said in a court filing that a Department of Justice (DOJ) memo had concluded there were no legally available funds at the Federal Reserve for the CFPB to request.

The memo, which was issued by the DOJ’s Office of Legal Counsel, stated that “if the Federal Reserve has no profits, it cannot transfer money to the CFPB.”

“Because the only lawful source of funding from the Federal Reserve has dried up,” the memo added, “the proper method for obtaining additional funds is to request them from Congress pursuant to the Appropriations Clause, not to draw funds from the Federal Reserve without a congressional appropriation.”

The White House has also said that the CFPB cannot lawfully draw funds to fund its operations from the Fed if the Fed does not have “combined earnings” to allocate to the bureau. Without additional funds, the CFPB is expected to deplete its operating funds completely in January.

But in her order, Jackson wrote that the government “manufactured” arguments to allow for a lapse in funding for the CFPB.

“Neither the statute, the injunction, nor the Fed’s willingness to pay has changed; the only new circumstance is the administration’s determination to eliminate an agency created by Congress with the stroke of pen, even while the matter is before the Court of Appeals,” she wrote in her order.

Jackson wrote that “it appears that defendants’ new understanding of ‘combined earnings’ is an unsupported and transparent attempt to starve the CPFB of funding and yet another attempt to achieve the very end the Court’s injunction was put in place to prevent.”

Earlier this year, Jackson ruled the Trump administration could not dismantle the agency, which had been an early target of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), a task force that was established under Trump to root out fraud and waste in the federal government.

This month, around two dozen Democrat-led states filed a lawsuit against the White House and Vought in a bid to prevent the administration from withholding funds to the agency. They argued that the move would reduce financial protections for ordinary Americans.

Republicans have long criticized the CPFB for what they say are the agency’s decisions to pursue politicized and radical tactics to target financial institutions.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 17:40

Putin Authorizes Military Reserve Call-Up To Protect Critical Energy Sites

One significant theme which emerged over the course of the last year of the Russia-Ukraine war is greater Ukrainian effectiveness in striking Russian territory, sometimes even distant targets many hundreds of miles away.

On a regular basis at this point, oil and gas infrastructure and refineries are blown up, export terminals damaged, and even military bases and government buildings come under attack. President Vladimir Putin is taking fresh action, on Tuesday having signed a decree granting the military authority to call up members of Russia's mobilization reserve next year.

via Shutterstock

The new injections in troops expected for 2026 will feature "special" training assemblies focused on securing and guarding critical infrastructure.

This as Gazprom's gas exports are falling to decades-lows, also amid far-reaching Western sanctions:

Russia’s Gazprom cut gas supplies to Europe by a further 44% in 2025, reducing flows to 18 billion cubic meters (bcm), Reuters reported Tuesday. Reuters' calculations were based on data from the TurkStream pipeline, now the only remaining route for Russian gas deliveries to Europe.

The volumes mark the lowest level of Russian gas exports to Europe since 1973, when the Soviet Union delivered 6.8 bcm under its first supply contracts with Austria and Italy. Exports then rose to 19.3 bcm by 1975 following the launch of the “gas-for-pipes” deal with Germany, climbed to 54.8 bcm by 1980 and reached around 110 bcm by the early 1990s.

As part of the new order, the Kremlin will compile a list of facilities that require protection, while the Defense Ministry will determine which military units will be responsible for carrying out the new protection of assets and training.

At times, Moscow has even come under threat, grounding commercial planes, and this week the government has alleged a major Ukrainian drone attack which targeted one of Putin's official residences - though all drones were intercepted by air defenses.

Ukraine has vehemently denied that it targeted Putin's residence, but this still hasn't stopped Putin from getting sympathetic statements from world leaders, such as President Trump and Indian leader Narendra Modi.

Russia's mobilization reserve is made up of volunteers who have signed contracts agreeing to periodic service, but the Kremlin has been slow to tap these manpower sources, also given Putin has still not declared a legal 'state of war' in Ukraine. 

Instead, it remains at the level of 'special military operation' - but in November Putin approved legislation broadening the conditions under which reservists can be used.

Now they can be called up even in peacetime, but only for 'special assemblies' and other security-related concerns, such as protecting the homeland from sabotage or drones.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 17:20

Yale No Longer Has A Single Republican Professor Across 27 Departments

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Yale has finally achieved liberal nirvana.

According to a recent report from the Buckley Institute, there is now not a single Republican found across 27 of 43 departments at Yale University. In a nation roughly evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats (with a slight advantage to the GOP), only 3 percent are Republicans across all Yale departments.

In comparison, roughly 83% of faculty are registered Democrats or primarily support Democratic candidates.

The Buckley Institute’s report looked at Yale’s undergraduate departments, as well as its School of Management and Law School.

The report is hardly surprising. In my book, “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I discuss these arguments to justify the current levels of intolerance and orthodoxy in higher education.

As we have discussed for years, universities have been effectively cleansing their ranks of Republicans and conservatives.

Many departments no longer have a single Republican faculty member in this academic echochamber.

A Georgetown study found that only nine percent of law school professors identify as conservative at the top 50 law schools — almost identical to the percentage of Trump voters found in the new poll.

There is little evidence that faculty members are interested in changing this culture or creating greater diversity at schools.  In places like North Carolina State University, a study found that Democrats outnumbered Republicans 20 to 1.

Not long ago, I had a debate at Harvard Law School with Professor Randall Kennedy on whether Harvard protects free speech and intellectual diversity.

Kennedy rejected the notion that the elite school should strive to “look more like America.”

It is not just that schools like Harvard “do not look like America,” it does not even look like liberal Massachusetts, which is almost 30 percent Republican.

The Harvard Crimson has documented how the school’s departments have virtually eliminated Republicans. In one study of multiple departments last year, they found that more than 75 percent of the faculty self-identified as “liberal” or “very liberal.”

Only 5 percent identified as “conservative,” and only 0.4% as “very conservative.”

Consider that, according to Gallup, the U.S. population is roughly equally divided among conservatives (36%), moderates (35%), and liberals (26%).

So Harvard has three times the number of liberals as the nation at large, and less than 3% identify as “conservative” rather than 35% nationally.

Among law school faculty who have donated more than $200 to a political party, a breathtaking 91 percent of the Harvard faculty gave to democrats.

The student body exhibits the same biased selection. Harvard Crimson previously found that only 7 percent of incoming students identified as conservative. For the vast majority of liberal faculty and students, Harvard amplifies rather than stifles their viewpoints.

This does not happen randomly. Indeed, if a business reduced the number of women or minorities to less than 5 percent, a court would likely find de facto discrimination.

Again, universities have shown no serious commitment to ideological diversity. Faculty members have little incentive to add dissenting voices to their ranks. Moreover, faculty are now arguing against such ideological diversity. 

Likewise, some sites, such as Above the Law, have supported the exclusion of conservative faculty.  Senior Editor Joe Patrice defended “predominantly liberal faculties” by arguing that hiring a conservative law professor is akin to allowing a believer in geocentrism to teach at a university.

Nothing is likely to change so long as donors continue to blindly fund these programs and ignore the obvious intolerance for opposing views.

For now, most Yale departments have succeeded in creating a safe space for the ideologically intolerant.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 17:00

Feds Charge Mexican-American With Trying To Arm ISIS Via Undercover FBI Agent

The FBI has arrested a 21-year-old Texas resident and charged him with attempting to provide material support to a foreign terrorist organization -- namely, ISIS. Depending on their level of faith in domestic counter-terror enforcement, some observers will applaud the news unquestioningly, while others may wonder if it's another situation where the man in handcuffs wouldn't have progressed to criminal action without police encouragement and assistance.  

That man in custody and facing up to 20 years in federal prison is John Michael Garza, a 21-year-old resident of Midlothian, Texas, a town about 25 miles southwest of Dallas. As is so often the case when the feds announce the foiling of a US-based terrorist plot, Garza didn't actually get in touch with ISIS, but was instead maneuvered into engaging with undercover police and federal agents posing as terrorists. 

Garza's father tells NBC 5 that his son has been diagnosed with a neurological disorder, and never expressed pro-ISIS sentiments. He says authorities preyed on his impaired son, pushing him to take actions he'd never have taken of his own volition. 

Garza's father says his son has a diagnosed neurological disorder and wouldn't have tried to aid ISIS without undercover cops' encouragement (photo via NBC 5) 

Garza was arrested last week, but the case began in mid-October, when a "New York police employee" (as the DOJ release describes the person) came across Garza's social media account, and noticed that he followed several pro-ISIS accounts, and commented on one post by such an account. Next, that NYPD undercover contacted Garza via social media. After describing himself as a Mexican-American in Texas, Garza engaged with the undercover throughout November and December. He said he ascribed to ISIS's philosophy, and sent the undercover various official ISIS media releases. 

Garza also sent the uncover person "small amounts" of cryptocurrency -- allegedly with the understanding that he was helping ISIS buy weapons and other supplies -- and allegedly sent a video of a suicide vehicle-bombing and another giving instructions on creating explosives. He's also alleged to have explained how to mix explosive ingredients and surround them with nails. Next, the FBI says, Garza said he intended to buy bomb components, and agreed to meet with another person whom he believed to be an ISIS follower too. That meeting with an undercover FBI agent took place on Monday, Dec 22, with Garza allegedly handing over what the FBI describes as "several explosive components." The release doesn't specify if that was more than, say, nails and a PVC pipe. 

Bombs on the menu: Garza allegedly shared this bomb-making instructional video (not his own work) with undercover law enforcement (DOJ)

FBI Director Kash Patel proclaimed victory: 

“Today’s announcement underscores the FBI’s commitment to combatting terrorism and demonstrates our continuous work to disrupt and thwart terrorist plots against the American public. Let this serve as a warning to those who plan to conduct attacks against the United States on behalf of terrorist organizations – you will be brought to justice.”

More details should come out with a Dec 30 probable cause and detention hearing at the US District Court for Northern Texas. While Garza may have someday taken deadly action on his own, for now, the pivotal roles played by undercover NYPD and FBI agents can't help make us wonder if the case can be summed up with this classic meme: 

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 16:40

From Tax-Cuts To Tariff-Stability: US Economy Poised For Solid Growth In 2026

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

The turbulence that defined the U.S. economy in 2025 is expected to ease next year...

Following President Donald Trump’s unveiling of his sweeping global tariffs plan, the consensus on Wall Street was that the United States would potentially face a downturn or, at the very least, a stagflation-type scenario: anemic growth, high inflation, and elevated unemployment.

Those economic forecasts had appeared to be materializing after the economy contracted by 0.6 percent in the first quarter. However, in the following months, GDP growth rebounded to 3.8 percent in the second quarter and 4.3 percent during the July–September period.

If the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s widely watched GDPNow Model fourth-quarter estimate of 3 percent is accurate, full-year growth will be 2.8 percent—higher than the 2.1 percent Blue Chip consensus.

While surveys continue to highlight consumers’ frustrations with stubbornly high prices, the data show inflation has steadied, easing to 2.7 percent in November.

In the first year of the president’s second term, consumer prices have risen by approximately 2 percent, compared with an increase of about 6 percent during President Joe Biden’s first year.

Trump’s tariff pursuits have also helped the White House achieve its goal of narrowing the trade deficit.

In September, the U.S. trade gap unexpectedly shrank to $52.8 billion, the lowest level since June 2020. This was driven by a sizable increase in exports and a minuscule rise in imports.

The president has attributed these improvements to his administration’s trade pursuits.

“Tariffs are creating great wealth, and unprecedented national security for the USA,” Trump wrote in a Dec. 27 Truth Social post. “Trade deficit has been cut by 60%, actually unheard of. 4.3% GDP, and going way up. No inflation! We are respected as a country again.”

Employment conditions, meanwhile, have continued to cool off from the red-hot post-COVID-19 pandemic era levels.

The unemployment rate rose to 4.6 percent in November—the highest reading since September 2021. Although this remains historically low, market watchers fear that economic uncertainty could adversely affect payrolls, prolonging the recent trend of a “low fire, low hire” environment.

Although a multitude of headwinds gripped the U.S. economy throughout 2025—the government shutdown, “K-shaped” trends that saw stronger growth enjoyed by the wealthy, and tariffs—the nation shrugged them off.

Looking ahead, economic observers are optimistic about 2026, although with some reservations.

Boom Town

The world’s largest economy could face boom times as a series of tailwinds support the U.S. marketplace.

Goldman Sachs projects next year’s growth will be 2.6 percent.

BNP Paribas and the St. Louis Federal Reserve’s December 2025 Blue Chip Economic Indicators suggest the consensus 2026 GDP growth rate will be 1.9 percent.

“2026 is expected to be a solid year for the economy,” Mark Malek, CIO at Siebert Financial, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times. “Fiscal stimulus is about to kick in from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, continued AI CAPEX, smaller trade deficits, and the Fed.”

White House officials are betting big that fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act will be a victory for Main Street and Wall Street, contributing to growth prospects.

President Donald Trump, joined by Republican lawmakers, signs the One Big Beautiful Bill Act into law during an Independence Day military family picnic on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington on July 4, 2025. Samuel Corum/Getty Images

“We’re going to go back to the kind of non-inflationary growth where working Americans do better than supervised workers. Lower-income households do well,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business earlier this month.

“Main Street, Wall Street can both do well. And my guess is both have a very good year next year.”

The Federal Reserve’s less restrictive monetary policy stance could be another boon for the economic landscape.

Officials lowered interest rates three times in 2025, and the Fed is expected to cut rates at least once more in 2026. While the market has already priced in lower interest rates, they could begin to work their way through the economy as next year progresses.

At the same time, the central bank’s policy path in the second half remains uncertain as the president is expected to replace Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires in May.

“The focus now shifts to thresholds for January and 2026 and whether Powell can credibly signal a pause,” Christian Hoffman, head of fixed income at Thornburg Investment Management, said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

“With just one cut penciled in for 2026 and one for 2027, the Fed is threading the needle between risk management and not completely ignoring inflation.”

The continued buildout of artificial intelligence (AI), rising U.S. stock forecasts, and strong household balance sheets could be additional contributors to gross domestic product.

But while there is reason for optimism, there could still be risks ahead, says Rick Pederson, economist and chief strategy officer at Bow River Capital.

“I’m positive about the economy in 2026, with some reservations,” Pederson said in a note emailed to The Epoch Times.

“I don’t believe a recession is coming for a number of reasons, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t risks. It’s going to be an interesting year. I expect positive economic growth, but it won’t be without a few micro-level surprises.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 16:20

RFK Jr. Drops 2026 MAHA Agenda To Banish Toxic Food Dyes And Kill Off Processed Poison

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

In a game-changing move that’s set to shake up the corrupt food industry, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has unveiled his 2026 MAHA agenda – a no-holds-barred assault on the chemicals and loopholes poisoning the health of America.

The agenda, highlighted during a Fox News broadcast, targets eight critical areas: GRAS reform to close loopholes for untested additives, updating dietary guidelines to prioritize real nutrition over junk science, defining ultra-processed foods, front-of-pack labeling for radical transparency, a chemical review overhaul to weed out toxins, banning petroleum-based food dyes linked to hyperactivity and worse, enhancing infant formula safety, and launching a nutrition regulatory science program free from Big Pharma influence.

As highlighted in the segment by FDA Deputy Commissioner for Human Foods Kyle Diamantas, “2026 will be a fundamental transformational year for the Trump administration,” with Secretary Kennedy’s team at the FDA leading the charge on food reform.

? JUST IN: Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s 2026 MAHA agenda has been RELEASED ?

– Petroleum-based food dyes
– Dietary guidelines
– Define ultra processed foods
– Infant formula safety
– "Generally Recognized As Safe" reform for food ingredients
– Front-of-pack labeling
-… pic.twitter.com/u9MpK0Si8Z

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) December 30, 2025

Diamantas further urged, “This is an issue that has gone on for far too long in our country when you talk about our national nutrition crisis – 70% of Americans are overweight or obese, we have over half of young adolescents who can’t qualify for military service, and 15,000 new cases of diabetes each week. So we have deep problems in this country – we want to tackle those head on.”

This push comes amid broader MAHA victories, but not without resistance from entrenched interests. Just days ago, a federal judge blocked enforcement of H.B. 2354, calling it “unconstitutionally vague” and halting a state-level crackdown on seven harmful additives like FD&C Red No. 40 and Yellow No. 5.

West Virginia Gov. Patrick Morrissey had championed the bill, stating, “West Virginia ranks at the bottom of many public health metrics, which is why there’s no better place to lead the Make America Healthy Again mission. By eliminating harmful chemicals from our food, we’re taking steps toward improving the health of our residents and protecting our children from significant long-term health and learning challenges.”

Yet Kennedy’s federal agenda powers ahead, building on 2025 milestones like phasing out Red Dye No. 3 and reconstituting vaccine advisory committees with conflict-free experts.

The 2026 plan directly addresses the childhood chronic disease explosion – one in 31 kids now diagnosed with autism, allergies afflicting one in four children, and obesity rates that disqualify young people from defending the nation.

GRAS reform stands out as a major win against the “generally recognized as safe” scam that’s allowed over 1,000 untested ingredients into food since 1997 without proper FDA scrutiny. Kennedy’s team aims to slam that door shut, forcing real safety reviews instead of industry self-certification.

On dietary guidelines, due for a radical update in January 2026, expect a shift away from outdated saturated fat limits that have propped up processed garbage. As nutrition expert Jerold Mande noted in recent coverage, “They don’t see a strong future for animal products. They just keep getting more and more expensive,” pointing to a potential emphasis on whole foods over ultra-processed alternatives. School lunches and military meals could see massive improvements, with resources funneled toward fresh, untainted options.

Defining ultra-processed foods is another cornerstone, with Marlene Schwartz emphasizing, “If the dietary guidelines said something about ultra-processed foods that just got people paying attention, I think that would be great.” This could spark a nationwide awakening to the hidden dangers in everyday snacks, cutting into Big Food’s profits while slashing obesity and diabetes rates.

Front-of-pack labeling promises to empower consumers with clear warnings, bypassing the fine-print tricks that hide toxins. Coupled with the chemical review overhaul, this will expose and eliminate contaminants that have evaded oversight for decades.

The petroleum-based food dyes ban builds on Kennedy’s April 2025 pledge to eliminate six synthetic colors by year’s end, now extended into a full purge. Despite judicial roadblocks like the West Virginia ruling, federal action could override such hurdles, protecting kids from behavioral issues tied to these petroleum-derived poisons.

Infant formula safety gets a spotlight through Operation Stork Speed, reviewing options to ensure the youngest aren’t exposed to harmful additives. And the nutrition regulatory science program will rebuild trust by grounding policies in unbiased research, free from lobbyist corruption.

Kennedy’s 2026 blueprint is a declaration of independence from the forces eroding American vitality. By prioritizing clean food, transparent science, and family health, MAHA delivers on the promise of a stronger, freer nation.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 15:40

Zelensky Claims Trump Is Considering US Boots On The Ground In Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has newly claimed that US President Donald Trump is considering the possibility of deploying American troops to Ukraine as negotiations toward peace with Moscow stall. This is presumably connected with promises of future 'security guarantees'.

This is somewhat of a surprise, as the White House has made no indication of this in any statement whether public or based on anonymous officials. Throughout the nearly four-long war the question of Western 'boots on the ground' has been raised at various times. 

But the US - whether under Biden or Trump - has always denied that sending American troops into Ukraine is a solution. Instead, it's well understood that this could escalate things between Washington and Russia toward full-scale war.

Zelensky made the remarks during a WhatsApp conversation with journalists, according to Reuters national security correspondent Idress Ali, who then revealed his words on social media.

But the outlet has still stressed that Zelensky understands that the final decision rests with Trump.

"To be honest, this can only be confirmed by the President of the United States of America. These are US troops, and therefore it is America that makes such decisions. Of course, we are discussing this both with President Trump and with representatives of the Coalition [of the Willing]," Zelensky was quoted as saying.

And just like that, boots on the ground as a talking point is being echoed among EU leaders...

Polish Prime Minister Tusk:

The United States has declared its readiness to participate in security guarantees for Ukraine after concluding peace.

This includes, for example, the presence of American troops on the border or on the line of contact between Ukraine and Russia. pic.twitter.com/bIJUhyjQam

— Clash Report (@clashreport) December 30, 2025

Russian media has also picked up on the remarks...

Zelensky says US BOOTS ON THE GROUND in Ukraine being discussed

But troop deployment is ‘UP TO THE UNITED STATES’ pic.twitter.com/VCXa10ttDw

— RT (@RT_com) December 30, 2025

President Trump has regularly emphasized that he won't contemplate boots on the ground in Ukraine, for example last August:

President Donald Trump on Tuesday pledged that American troops would not be on the ground in Ukraine — but provided little other insight into the scale of U.S. security guarantees as he pushes to end Russia’s war on its neighbor.

"You have my assurance, and I’m president," Trump said on “Fox & Friends,” when asked what assurances he has that there won’t be American boots in the country to defend against another Russian incursion.

Needless to say such a moved, if he were to reverse his own policy, would be hugely unpopular among Trump's base. And broadly the American public would likely see such a risky move as recipe for another US troop quagmire abroad, and in a very complex battlespace.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 15:20

Everyone's A Lender Now: Shadow Banking USA

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

How much private credit has been put in place but isn't in the official credit total is unknown and very likely unknowable. That means total systemic risk is also unknowable.

Everyone wants to lend us money now, even though they're not banks: the insurance company Progressive offered us a loan, PayPal offers us a business loan every time we log in, and the payment processor Stripe includes a pitch to borrow money on its dashboard page.

Then there's the ubiquitous payment plans offered by seemingly every vendor / retailer.

These are parts of the shadow banking system (SBS) that we see, but most of the system is hidden in the global economy's complex financial plumbing. The shadow banking system differs from nation to nation, as it developed to avoid whatever is tightly regulated or restricted within each banking system.

Here is a general definition:

 "Shadow banking in the U.S. refers to non-bank financial institutions and activities that provide services similar to traditional commercial banks but operate largely outside of conventional banking regulations. The sector has grown significantly in recent years and plays a major role in the financial system, though it also poses systemic risks due to its lack of transparency and regulatory oversight."

In a global economy dependent on credit, leverage, artifice and speculation, the expansion of shadow banking is highly incentivized. How much of this activity and debt ends up in official statistics of credit is hard to know, even for experts, given that the goal of shadow banking is to avoid the regulations and restrictions that increase transaction costs and limit risk.

Risk brings us to the treacherous territory between known unknowns and unknown unknowns, as risk is a funny thing: it cannot be extinguished, but it can be cloaked, transferred to others, sold to the unsuspecting as "safe," or buried beneath complexity. It can also lay dormant, slowly dissolving whatever holds the system together, a process that remains hidden until the avalanche surprises everyone who thought the snowmass was stable because it appeared stable.

These links shed some light on the scale, asymmetries and risks built into a sprawling, highly interconnected, highly leveraged shadow banking system with few institutional safeguards or backstops.

Shadow banking system

Nonbank Financial Intermediation (NBFI or "Shadow Banking") and Capital Markets Policy

Shadow Banks: Out of the Eyes of Regulators

Bank Turmoil Is Paving the Way for Even Bigger 'Shadow Banks'

Total known credit is already a systemic risk. 

How much private credit has been put in place but isn't in the official credit total is unknown and very likely unknowable. That means total systemic risk is also unknowable.

*  *  *

My new book Investing In Revolution is available at a 10% discount ($18 for the paperback, $24 for the hardcover and $8.95 for the ebook edition). Introduction (free)

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Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 15:00

New Pattern Suggests Two "Sizable" Snow Events For US Northeast

Meteorologist Mike Masco has identified what he says could be a very active storm pattern for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic from around New Year's Day into mid-January.

"I've been deconstructing the pattern this morning, and there are three key features that support an active stretch across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, including the potential for at least two sizable snow events, plus several smaller ones," Masco wrote on X.

Masco is a meteorologist for New York City-based PIX11 News and focuses on the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.

He explained what the active post-New Year pattern could bring on a region-by-region basis:

• West-based negative NAO (Greenland block), shown by the black circle, slows the pattern and reorients the jet stream from southwest to northeast, and at times south to north. This keeps shortwaves and lows closer to the coast. It is not a guaranteed blockbuster, but it keeps inverted troughs and sneaky coastal setups in play, with one possible around New Year's Day.

• Rockies ridge (critical), shown by the purple box, forces storm energy south of New York City and Philadelphia. Without it, storms track north and turn weaker and wetter. With it, colder tracks and better snow potential are more likely.

• Western Atlantic ridge (underrated), shown by the blue box, helps keep systems near the coast and supports Miller B-type setups, favoring more traditional snowstorms rather than just clippers.

Timing: The pattern sets up around New Year's Day and lasts into mid-January. There is no locked-in timeline for a major storm yet. A New Year's Eve or New Year's Day clipper is likely to bring light snow across the region, with redevelopment potential toward Boston.

Here is Masco's forecast map:

Peak winter is still several weeks away.

Washington, DC's Heating Degree Days, a weather-based metric used to estimate how much energy is needed to heat buildings, will be above 30-year averages. 

This implies higher NatGas demand, thus higher prices. 

NatGas prices jumped in November and December on cold weather patterns across the US East.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 14:40

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s Q3 National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores

A brief excerpt:

Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q3 2025 (released this morning).
...
This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3% starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic.

Note that a fairly large percentage of mortgage loans were under 4% prior to the pandemic!

The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.1% (now at 51.5%), and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now at 68.6%). These low existing mortgage rates make it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply.

This was a key reason existing home inventory levels were so low. However, time is eroding this lock-in effect.

There is much more in the article.

Silver Coins: Memories Of Sound Money

Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,

The financial press reports that people are swarming the coin shops these days, grabbing as much as possible. This is exactly what one would expect given the wild and parabolic increases in the silver price over the last month, moving from $30 to $75 in the period of one year.

Such increases tend to focus the mind and incentivize regular people to join in the fun.

Silver tends toward these wild manias, suffering from neglect for years before taking off out of seemingly nowhere. That said, I did call it in these pages. “Now Is the time for silver,” I wrote in June of 2025.

The wild bull market seems to reflect new levels of demand from AI and solar panels. There is no better conductor of electricity or temperature. Nothing from the lab can come close. There is also the perception that supplies are dwindling. Put it together—supply and demand—and the magic just happens.

If you are among those who are stocking up on coins—not merely calling your broker about silver ETFs—you might take a few minutes to look more carefully at the dates of these coins.

The year was 1965, the great turning point. The last 90 percent silver circulating coins (dimes, quarters, half-dollars) were dated 1964, and everyday “silver coinage” ended with that date for most denominations.

How significant was this? It was huge.

Silver coins were about real money in the hands of real people, not bankers and not politicians. They were a guarantor of freedom, one even mentioned in the U.S. Constitution “No State shall... coin Money; emit Bills of Credit; make any Thing but gold and silver Coin a Tender in Payment of Debts,” says Article I, Section 10, Clause 1.

The Founders knew the meaning of sound money, and made it a mandatory matter that any state that is part of the great union had to adhere to the silver standard. Much later, all money and coinage power were transferred to the federal government, making the point mute. But then of course the federal government made an enormous error.

Why did this happen? Lyndon Johnson had taken over the Presidency after the assassination of John F. Kennedy. Kennedy had hoped to impose a nationwide silver standard as a means of restraining the central bank. After he was killed, the goal was sidelined. The money in our pockets was wrecked. From being made of the real deal, they all eventually became what is known as “baloney sandwich” coins—nothing but tokens.

The rest of the world followed. Why? There is really only one reason. Governments, banks, and corporate finance did not like the restraints imposed by precious metals. It was seen as too costly and restrictive whereas coining mere symbols seemed to be a savings. There was a welfare state to create and fund, plus a big war building in Southeast Asia. In such times, governments need resources that hard money simply does not allow.

Another critical point about these times: this was the turning point in public confidence in government. The assassination of Kennedy was a devastating blow, especially in the way that so few actually ever believed the official story about how and why it happened. Government never recovered its credibility. The destruction of the money was the telltale sign that something had gone seriously wrong.

Confidence in government peaked at 77 percent in 1964 and then began its long slide. It sits at 17 percent today.

Chart source: Pew Research

This is an astonishing and undeniable trend about which few will publicly speculate. The bigger government gets, the more it takes on, the less the public trusts it to do the right thing. This is because the people are not stupid. They follow the evidence of their senses. And keep in mind that the main trends happened long before independent media was hard at work to pull back the curtain on power, as it is today.

Daily we discover more depths of corruption, thanks mostly to independent reporters and scrupulous reporting from The Epoch Times. A video detailing the mind-blowing corruption in Minnesota has reached more than 100 million views, making the legacy media irrelevant by comparison. The COVID period was also another decisive turning point: scientists with power ruled your life in the name of health while taking away the means to obtain health.

The slide can only continue in the future, and it is likely that the only kind of politician who stands a chance of getting elected is one who promises to overthrow the system as it is. This is our lives now, just the way things work in a society of low trust.

The beauty in holding and jangling pre-1965 silver is nostalgia for a time when government was somewhat restrained, corporate finance was built by hard work and real capital, people were highly educated, and freedom itself was baked into our coinage. Plus, silver just feels great in one’s hand, adopting the temperature of the room and the holder as if a magic trick is happening right before you.

I long for the days of real money and probably you do too. And it raises the question: how can we get it back? I wish I had the answer but plenty of people are not waiting for government to make it happen. Much of the demand for silver these days stems from what’s called “safe haven” demand. You just know that even if or when fiat money fails, this silver will still be accepted in payment.

Who doesn’t feel safer and more secure with a few large bags of pre-1965 dimes and quarters on hand? This was the last period in which the United States minted real money as opposed to symbols made of paper and tin. That was more than half a century ago, and public nostalgia for this period of our national life has reached new highs.

Someone just asked me of the chances that government will in the future demand that we all turn in our silver, the same way they did in 1933 for gold. One supposes it is possible, and you can imagine the rationale: industry needs supply to make the AI revolution and the energy transition possible. Certainly they have the power to do so.

That said, how many will comply? In 1933, plenty of people did not assent with the demand to turn in gold and instead found other safe havens for it. The same would be true today for silver. Plus, I seriously doubt that any president or Congress would risk what remains of credibility by undertaking such an action. There would be real risk of revolution.

We aren’t likely going back to a silver standard but people are adopting it in their own lives, even choosing the old-world money over crypto currency certainly over fiat which is only falling in value. Remember that one version of the history of the world dollar comes from the Spanish coin “thaler.” That memory is alive and well in every coin shop in this country, and in the bags of silver you might be accumulating now, just in case.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/30/2025 - 14:20