February 2010

Destabilizing a country by derivatives is "counter productive" - Bernanke

It is counter productive to destabilize or destroy a nation through derivatives according to Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke.

Counter productive. Hmmmm, if it was a military weapon I do believe it would be called something else but as long as it's financial....well, ain't thems just fightin' words.

Obviously, using these instruments in a way that intentionally destabilizes a company or a country is -- is counterproductive, and I’m sure the SEC will be looking into that. We’ll certainly be evaluating what we can learn from the activities of the holding companies.

The SEC? Like Madloff? Bernanke said this during testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

Chris Dodd asks:

Should there be limits on the use of credit default swaps to prevent “runs against governments?

Durable Goods for January 2010 - New Orders Flying Up, literally, by 3%

New orders for Durable goods increased 3% for January.

Before you get all excited, it's all aircraft. Nondefense aircraft and parts had a 126% increase in new orders. What is more interesting is shipments in this same category dropped 18.1%. Previously mentioned, aircraft is a particularly volatile number. Obviously each order represents millions, sometimes billions and if someone cancels? Well.

Without aircraft Durable goods new orders actually dropped -0.6%.

Initial weekly unemployment claims for January 25, 2010

Initial weekly unemployment claims increased 22,000 to 496,000. There is a lot of statistical noise in initial weekly unemployment claims and one can guarantee this number will be revised. So why is this important? We're seeing a trend at this point and it's increasing, not decreasing as the green shooters, cyclical folks believe it would.

 

 

The 4 week moving average since the start of this recession:

 

Junk Economics and the middle class: Where we went wrong

I'm not so arrogant as to believe that I know the perfect solution to our economic problems. Anyone that tells you they know is either a fool or a liar.

However, that doesn't mean we can't discover where we went wrong once you apply a little logic and data to the situation.
For instance, if you realize you have taken a wrong turn, it makes more sense to turn around and go back to the corner where the mistake was made, than it does to drive in a general direction and hope you can find your way home.

When it comes to the economy, its pretty easy to discover when the wrong turn was made - 1972.

House lets anti-trust apply to health insurance companies

No doubt this will die in the Senate but the House overwhelming passed a bill to expose health insurance companies to anti-trust laws:

The U.S. House of Representatives voted on Wednesday to take a 65-year-old antitrust exemption away from health insurance companies, leaning hard on an industry that has been the focus of criticism for fast-rising rates.

The chamber voted 406 to 19 to effectively repeal an antitrust exemption that has meant that states take the lead in enforcing antitrust law for health insurers. Consumer groups say states often lack the resources to effectively regulate insurers.

"Just recently 80,000 Iowans were told that their insurance rates would go up 18 percent," said Rep. Leonard Boswell in debate before the vote. "Iowans in the 3rd district are struggling to make ends meet."

'Doomsday is here for the state of Illinois'

While everyone focuses on the very real budget problems in California, another major state is about to go under.

To become solvent, the state must enact the largest tax-increase package in Illinois history, whack another $2 billion from already starved government programs and wrest major financial concessions from the state's unionized work force, a nonpartisan government watchdog contends.
In a new analysis of Illinois' "horrific" finances, the Civic Federation lays out the painful choices awaiting Gov. Quinn and the Legislature as they stare down an epic $12.8 billion budget deficit that has choked the flow of state cash to public universities and schools, transit systems and social-service agencies to the point of economic collapse.
"Doomsday is here for the State of Illinois," said Laurence Msall, the organization's president.

Greece hit by general strike

You knew this was coming. Unlike Americans, the Greeks aren't going to take this lying down.

(Bloomberg) -- Greek police fired tear-gas and clashed with demonstrators in central Athens after a march organized by unions to oppose Prime Minister George Papandreou’s drive to cut the European Union’s biggest budget deficit.
“People on the street will send a strong message to the government but mainly to the European Union, the markets and our partners in Europe that people and their needs must be above the demands of markets,” Yiannis Panagopoulos, president of the private-sector union GSEE, told NET TV yesterday. “We didn’t create the crisis.”

20% Underemployed in U.S. - poll

Gallop ran a poll finding 20% of Americans are either unemployed or working part-time.

Nearly 20 percent of the U.S. workforce lacked adequate employment in January and struggled to make ends meet with reduced resources and bleak job prospects, according to a Gallup poll released on Tuesday.

In findings that appear to paint a darker employment picture than official U.S. data, Gallup estimated that about 30 million Americans are underemployed, meaning either jobless or able to find only part-time work.

Underemployed people spent 36 percent less on household purchases than their fully employed neighbors in January, while six out of 10 were not hopeful about their chances of finding adequate work in the coming month, the poll said.

Gallup surveyed more than 20,000 U.S. adults from January 2 to 31. The results have a 1 percentage point margin of error.

Consumer confidence plunges to lowest level since 1983

If there is a recovery going on, the public is unaware of it.

Consumer confidence took a swan dive in February to its lowest point since April, according to a monthly poll released Tuesday.
The index plunged to 46 from January’s 56.5, following several months of boosts, according to the Conference Board. The economy is stable only when the reading surpasses 90.
The New York-based nonprofit said that consumers are in a generally sour mood, due partly to pessimism about job prospects and income worries. The anxiety would likely lead to curbed spending, the board said.

The present situation index, which measures consumers’ feelings about the current environment, also tumbled. The drop to 19.4 from 25.2 hit the index’s lowest level since it reached 17.5 in February 1983.

The subtopics of this poll are bad across the board. It seems the public just doesn't buy the happy talk.
One reason for that might be because mass layoffs are increasing.

Update: Robert Oak here. Below are additional details and opinion on consumer confidence coming from me.

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