Zero Hedge

Even If Powell "Can't See The Stag And Can't See The Flation", Consumers Can

Even If Powell "Can't See The Stag And Can't See The Flation", Consumers Can

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Bumps and Potholes

UK Q1 GDP surprised to the upside at the end of last week to print at +0.6%, rather than the more modest 0.4% that market economists had been expecting. That means that Britain is officially out of recession. Perhaps even more importantly for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, GDP per capita grew for the first time in two years and the Governor of the Bank of England has been talking about rate cuts. The FT reports that corporate takeover activity for UK companies has hit the highest level since 2018 as international capital managers realise that UK stocks are comparatively cheap. Suddenly, everything is coming up Rishi, but that’s unlikely to save him from an electoral drubbing later in the year.

Of course, faster economic growth can in some ways be a double-edged sword. If the economy is turning over more quickly, it raises questions about inflationary pressures – which might delay those rate cuts that Governor Bailey was hinting at. In the case of the UK this might not be an issue because the stronger GDP result was driven by fixed capital formation – suggesting that businesses are investing to raise the speed limit of the economy – while households seem to have taken Huw Pill’s advice to accept that they are poorer and kept a lid on their own spending.

Over in Canada it might be a different story. Labour market figures for April showed employment growth of 90,000 in the month. That’s a mighty bounce back from the loss of 2,200 jobs in March, and well above the consensus estimate of +20,000 jobs. The unemployment rate duly fell (despite a 1-tick climb in the participation rate) to a still high 6.1%, and hourly wages growth also came in firmer than expected at 4.8% y-o-y (albeit down on March’s 5% figure).

Consequently, the 65% probability of a June rate cut that the OIS futures were suggesting last Thursday has suddenly fallen to a 45% probability. The market is still fully-priced for a cut by July, but only just.

There were further bumps in the road for the global crusade against inflation last Friday when the latest iteration of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment report was released. Consumer confidence dropped like a rock, all the way from 77.2 in April to 67.4 in May. Both ‘current conditions’ and ‘future expectations’ looked grim, which perhaps suggests a “plague on both your houses” attitude to the two leading contenders for the Presidency. Crucially, 1-year inflation expectations leapt from 3.2% to 3.5%, and 5-10 year expectations (generally a low volatility number) edged higher from 3% to 3.1%. Even if Jerome Powell “can’t see the stag and can’t see the flation”, it appears that consumers can.

Powell is scheduled to speak tomorrow, but the timing presents a few potential landmines for the Fed Chief. Powell’s remarks will come after the release of April PPI figures, but ahead of the CPI report. CPI is likely to be the key point of interest for financial markets this week, but there’s also the not-insignificant issue of big new tariffs on Chinese EVs (amongst other things) expected to be announced tomorrow. The CPI numbers are expected to print at +0.4% m-o-m, as they did in March. Unfortunately, 0.4% m-o-m is incompatible with 2% annual inflation, so Powell might still be a little cagey on there whereabouts of the stag and the ‘flation.

Japan, China and Australia have lately thrown up some potholes in the road back to at-target inflation. Japanese March labour cash earning figures reported last week showed year-on-year growth of less than half the expected number. China PPI slipped further into deflation at -2.5% in April (although CPI nudged up slightly to 0.3%) and aggregate financing actually fell for the first time since 2005.

China’s housing woes are clearly ongoing, and it appears that this has started to worry Xi Jinping, who is reportedly looking at ways to protect state-owned developers that may also help to staunch the balance sheet recession being experienced by Chinese households. The long-awaited stimulus bazooka might be on the way (of sorts), but almost certainly not for private sector developers who might be too close to decadent Western-style capitalists for Xi’s liking.

The fortunes of Chinese real estate developers are of particular interest to Australia, since bulk commodities used in the production of steel and concrete (iron ore, coking coal) sit atop the list of Australia’s major exports.

The Australian Government will deliver a budget tomorrow night - Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ third, and likely his second successive surplus. The now traditional pre-budget leaks to the media suggest a more growth-oriented fiscal impulse which would ordinarily be a concern for the RBA - who inexplicably maintained their neutral outlook on interest rates last week, despite big upward revisions in their inflation forecasts and downward revisions to unemployment forecasts.

One suspects that the RBA dead-batted the strong Q1 inflation print of a week earlier with the benefit of advance warning from Treasury that budget initiatives would substantially reduce measured CPI. Treasury is reportedly expecting CPI to be back below 3% by the end of the year as new subsidies for electricity bills, rent assistance and childcare shift the burden of payment from households to government. Those increased subsidies will mechanically reduce measured CPI, but they won’t reduce underlying cost pressures, which will instead be paid through the tax system. Happily, the budget will also include income tax cuts.

So, there have been a few bumps to inflation here, and a few unanticipated drops there. Ultimately the US CPI report will be the main game of the week as markets look for continued signs of an upward trend in price pressures.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 11:30

Household Finance Fears Worst Since COVID As Inflation Expectations Surged In April, NY Fed Survey Finds

Household Finance Fears Worst Since COVID As Inflation Expectations Surged In April, NY Fed Survey Finds

Well if Fed Chair Powell couldn't see the 'flation' before, perhaps he can now...

After flatlining around 3.,0% for the last four months the median one-year-ahead inflation expectations increased to 3.3%, according to The New York Fed's April Survey of Consumer Expectations.

They also increased to 2.8 percent from 2.6 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon, while decreasing to 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent at the three-year horizon.

Home price expectations ticked up to 3.3 percent after seven consecutive months at 3.0 percent, reaching their highest level since July 2022.

Consumers also anticipated faster price growth for gasoline, food, medical care, a college education and rents, according to the New York Fed survey.

The data follow a string of reports that have indicated sticky inflation and a relentless run-up in home prices.

Data out this week is projected to show US consumer prices still rose at stubborn pace last month, and shelter has been consistently responsible for boosting measures of inflation.

All of which is hammering household budgets as the share of consumers that expect they’ll miss a minimum debt payment over the next three months is at the highest since the onset of the pandemic.

Finally, views of the labor market worsened, with earnings growth expectations decreasing and the probability of higher unemployment rising.

Respondents were also less confident in their ability to find a new job if they lost their current one, falling to the lowest reading in three years.

So - all things considered - not the shiny basket of awesomeness that 'Bidenomics' keeps being promoted as eh?

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 11:19

Jen Psaki Claims Biden Never Looked At Watch, Suggests Gold Star Parents Lied

Jen Psaki Claims Biden Never Looked At Watch, Suggests Gold Star Parents Lied

You know it's bad when Axios is calling out Jen Psaki for lying about President Biden checking his watch during a ceremony for soldiers killed during the botched 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal.

In her new book, "Say More," the former White House press secretary claims that Biden looked at his watch only after the ceremony had ended, contradicting fact-checks (even Snopes) and on-the-record statements from Gold Star families who were there.

Psaki says Biden critics were engaged in "misinformation" and used the image to make "him appear insensitive, concerned only about how much time had passed."

The Associated Press photographer on the tarmac snapped two photos of Biden looking at his watch twice and 10 minutes apart, as fact-checkers at USA Today and Snopes noted soon afterward. -Axios

Psaki also 'mistakenly cited' a passage from the Washington Post to reinforce her lie - when what she quoted was actually from USA Today's fact check article, not the post. The fact check noted that Biden looked at his watch at the end of the ceremony, but also concluded that "photos and video show [Biden] also checked his watch during the ceremony."

More via Axios:

Many family members of the 13 soldiers killed during the explosion at the Abbey Gate base in Kabul have consistently said in interviews and appearances before Congress that Biden checked his watch as the caskets went by.

  • Mark Schmitz, the father of Marine Lance Cpl. Jared Schmitz, told Congress in August of 2023 that "while I stood there on the tarmac watching you check your watch over and over again, all I wanted to do was shout out, 'It's two f***ing thirty, asshole.' "
  • The day after the ceremony on Aug. 29, 2021, Shana Chappell, the mother of Marine Lance Cpl. Kareem Nikoui, wrote on Facebook: "I watched you disrespect us all 5 different times by checking your watch!!! What the f*** was so important that you had to keep looking at your watch????"

Psaki Responds

While initially declining to comment, Psaki told Axios that the "detail in a few lines of the book about the exact number of times he looked at his watch will be removed in future reprints and the ebook," adding "The story on Afghanistan is really about the importance of delivering feedback even when it is difficult told through my own experience of telling President Biden that his own story of loss was not well received by the families who were grieving their sons and daughters."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 11:00

Lindsey Graham Suggests Nuking Iran And Hamas

Lindsey Graham Suggests Nuking Iran And Hamas

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

Warmonger in chief Lindsey Graham suggested Sunday that Israel, with the help of the US, should use nuclear weapons on Iran and Hamas fighters in Palestinian territories.

Appearing on NBC News’ “Meet the Press,” the Republican Senator asked “Why did we drop two bombs, nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki?”

“To end a war that we couldn’t afford to lose,” Graham continued, adding “You don’t understand, apparently, what Israel is facing. They’re facing three groups: Iran, who has received $80 billion in aid… They’re taking that money to kill all the Jews.”

Graham claimed that Israel is facing a significant threat to its existence, and therefore should do whatever it takes, just as the US did in World War Two.

“Why is it okay for America to drop two nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end their existential threat war?”

Graham continued, adding “Why was it okay for us to do that? I thought it was okay. To Israel, do whatever you have to do to survive as a Jewish state.”

“Give Israel the bombs they need to end the war they can’t afford to lose and work with them to minimise casualties,” Graham urged.

Host Kristen Welker provided some pushback, noting that there are now more advanced weapons that could be deployed, rather than just dropping a big fat nuke, and that there might be an alternative to all out war.

But Graham wasn’t having it, stating “When you’re telling the world you’re going to restrict weapons delivery to the Jewish state who is fighting a three-front war for their survival, it emboldens Iran, it emboldens Hamas.”

It’s hardly surprising coming from Graham, who has been calling for wiping Iran off the face of the Earth for years now. But how exactly is Israel going to nuke Hamas without causing more untold carnage to millions of innocent people, including those in its own country?

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 10:40

Market Manipulation Trial Over Bill Hwang's Spectacular $36 Billion Implosion Begins This Week

Market Manipulation Trial Over Bill Hwang's Spectacular $36 Billion Implosion Begins This Week

The trial over Bill Hwang's Archegos Capital Management begins this week.

The charges in Hwang's trial come from the 2021 collapse of the $36 billion dollar Archegos and Reuters has said that testimony could last up to 8 weeks. Prosecutors have said that Archegos' collapse led to $100 billion in shareholder losses at companies he held.

The trial is set to shed a light on how major Wall Street players accommodated, and potentially turned a blind eye, to risky tactics from a wealthy client. Hwang is being accused of using total return swaps to take massive positions in companies without holding their underlying stock. 

As Reuters notes, the company faced crippling margin calls in March 2021 due to falling stock prices. This, in turn, led to significant losses for Archegos and its lenders, including Credit Suisse and Nomura Holdings.

Archegos founder Bill Hwang and CFO Patrick Halligan, charged with racketeering conspiracy and multiple counts of fraud and market manipulation, have pleaded not guilty.

They contest the prosecutors' claims of market manipulation, which some legal experts view as a challenging case for the government. The trial is expected to feature testimony from Archegos’s guilty-pleading head trader and Chief Risk Officer, alongside potential appearances from bank executives.

Hwang was arrested in April 2022 and charged with racketeering conspiracy, securities fraud and wire fraud in connection with a scheme to manipulate the share prices of public companies in order to boost profits. He was then released on $100 million bail. At the time, he told authorities that he had "lost his passport" and so his wife surrendered hers instead. As we noted, he also lived just minutes from Teterboro airport in New Jersey. 

Chief Financial Officer Patrick Halligan, also pleaded not guilty and was freed on $1 million bail and had his travel limited.

According to the 40-page indictment, Hwang engaged in a "fraudulent scheme" that included "interlocking deceptive acts and misconduct, through false and misleading statements to security-based swap ("SBS") counterparties and prime brokers and manipulative trading designed to artificially move the market, which, in tandem, increased Archegos’s assets under management from around $4 billion to over $36 billion in just under six months."

In order to overcome this issue, Archegos "chose not to rely on ordinary market forces," and instead "engaged in a brazen scheme to manipulate the market for the securities of the issuers that represented Archegos’s top 10 holdings" by purchasing both securities and SBSs related to those issuers.

Archegos, through Hwang and Tomita, effected this scheme by dominating the market for its Top 10 Holdings, as well as by “setting the tone” (i.e., engaging in large pre-market trading), bidding up prices by entering incrementally higher limit orders throughout the trading day, and “marking the close” (i.e., engaging in large trading in the last 30 minutes of the trading day) and by other non-economic trading, all with the goal of artificially inflating the share prices of its Top 10 Holdings.

To fuel the alleged manipulation, Archegos used margin extended by counterparties - which Hwang and crew 'deliberately misled', because had they answered truthfully after they began asking questions, it "would have led Archegos to exhaust the finite trading resource that its Counterparties provided."

As a reminder, Archegos amassed a concentrated portfolio of stocks well in excess of $100 billion by using borrowed money in the form of TRS, which kept the exposure on the books of the various prime brokers working with Archegos, thus allowing Hwang to hide his full exposure.

Hwang is a former protégé of hedge-fund titan Julian Robertson, who founded Tiger Management in 1980, which as the Wall Street Journal reports, turned $8.8 million into nearly $22 billion. Several investors trained by Robertson became known as the "Tiger cubs."

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 10:20

Musk Wins Latest Censorship Battle In Australia As High Court Rules Against eSafety Commissioner

Musk Wins Latest Censorship Battle In Australia As High Court Rules Against eSafety Commissioner

Authored by Rebekah Barnett via 'Dystopian Down Under' blog,

Can Australia’s eSafety Commissioner block content globally on demand? Not today, ruled the Australian Federal Court, in a win for Elon Musk’s social media platform X.

US billionaire Elon Musk (left), Australian eSafety Commissioner Julie Inman Grant (right)

In a decision this morning, Justice Geoffrey Kennett refused to extend a temporary injunction obtained by eSafety last month, which forced X to remove footage of the Wakeley church stabbing, an alleged religiously motivated terror attack.

Under the Online Safety Act (2021), the eSafety Commissioner, Julie Inman Grant, has the authority to order removal of such ‘class 1 material’ within Australia under threat of hefty fines.

eSafety argued that X had not gone far enough to block the content from Australians, as a geo-block can be circumvented by a VPN. X argued that eSafety was effectively seeking a global ban on content, straying outside of the Australian online harm regulator’s jurisdiction.

eSafety applied to the Federal Court to extend its temporary injunction against X, with a hearing taking place on Friday 10 May. The temporary injunction was due to expire at 5pm on Friday, but was extended to 5pm today, presumably to allow time for Justice Kennett to deliver a decision on the matter.

This morning, Justice Kennett determined that, “The orders of the court will be that the application to extend … is refused,” meaning that at the time of publishing, the injunction is no longer effective. A written decision with the Judge’s reasoning is yet to be published.

In a statement on the Federal Court decision, eSafety said that the matter will return to Court for a case management hearing on Wednesday, 15 May.

Source: X

"The application for this injunction should have never been brought," said Dr Reuben Kirkham, Co-Director of the Free Speech Union of Australia (FSU) in a statement today, questioning the validity of the Commissioner’s bid to enact a global content ban on X.

“The eSafety Commissioner is overreaching and behaving more like an activist than a responsible public servant.”

Dr Kirkham, who was present for the hearing on Friday, told Dystopian Down Under that he counted 12 lawyers present (seven for X, five for eSafety), which, if eSafety is ordered to pay costs, will lump tax payers with “a considerable amount of unnecessary legal costs.”

Digital civil liberties nonprofit the Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) echoes FSU Australia’s position, stating that, “no single country should be able to restrict speech across the entire internet,” and likening the Commissioner’s actions to “[using] a sledgehammer to crack a nut.”

An affidavit submitted by the EFF to the eSafety vs. X proceedings last week called for the Court to consider the international impact that a ruling in eSafety’s favour would have in setting a precedent for allowing one country to enforce content bans on citizens of other countries.

“If one court can impose speech-restrictive rules on the entire Internet—despite direct conflicts with laws [in] a foreign jurisdiction as well as international human rights principles—the norms of expectations of all internet users are at risk,” stated the EFF in an article summarising the affidavit.

X’s Global Government Affairs posted about the hearing, stating, “We’re glad X is fighting back, and we hope the judge will recognize the eSafety regulator’s demand for what it is—a big step toward unchecked global censorship—and refuse to let Australia set another dangerous precedent." At the time of publishing, no updated statement on the Judge’s decision had been issued.

Source: X

Dr Kirkham calls the Commissioner’s application to extend her injunction against X “part of a pattern where the eSafety Commissioner’s office seemingly engages in gamesmanship rather than respecting the rule of law or acting as a model litigant.”

Indeed, today’s ruling in X’s favour comes amidst mounting controversy over the eSafety Commissioner’s ongoing stoush with X, which appears to be driven partly by Julie Inman Grant’s global censorship ambitions, and partly by personal feelings.

Inman Grant, who formerly directed Twitter’s Public Policy (Australia and Southeast Asia), has repeatedly criticised Elon Musk since his purchase of the Twitter platform in 2022.

Moreover, Musks’s advocacy for a broad interpretation of free speech on the internet conflicts with Inman Grant’s professed view of free speech as a right that needs to be “recalibrated” for online spaces.

For its part, X has failed to comply with routine reporting to the eSafety Commissioner’s satisfaction, leading eSafety to initiate civil penalty proceedings against X in December last year. If found non-compliant, X could be fined up to AUD $780,000 per day, backdated to March 2023, when the determination of non-compliance was made.

Perhaps the biggest controversy between X and eSafety centres on the highly charged and subective issue of gender ideology.

Inman Grant has enforced removal of a string of posts on X questioning gender ideology, including one suggesting that men can’t breastfeed, and another about a trans-identified male who allegedly injured female players during a women's football game in NSW.

In an internationally high-profile case, the Commissioner recently issued a removal notice over an acerbic gender-critical post by Canadian activist Billboard Chris, raising questions over whether the Government should be able to police opinions and censor statements of biological fact on the internet.

FSU Australia is currently involved in Administrative Appeal Tribunal proceedings on behalf of Billboard Chris (real name Chris Elston) against the eSafety Commissioner. Additionally, X has threatened to sue eSafety over the matter.

Source: X

Returning to the issue of the Wakeley stabbing footage, Inman Grant’s attempt to globally ban the content has been supported by the Australian Government, which leveraged the incident to call for more censorship, including the reintroduction of an unpopular misinformation bill.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also responded to calls to address violence against women by proposing to further expand eSafety’s budget and remit, which could see deep fake pornography and “other misogynistic material” censored by the regulator.

No one will argue against explicit pornography being blocked from children’s view, but it is around the grey edges of definition creep on terms like ‘harm’, ‘adult cyber abuse’ and ‘misogynistic material’ where disagreements will undoubtedly kick-off.

In a move of ‘no confidence’ against eSafety, FSU Australia has launched a petition to abolish the office of the eSafety Commissioner altogether, arguing that a combination of parental controls and platform incentives will suffice in keeping children safe on the internet.

A more moderate approach may be to curtail eSafety’s remit to its original function of dealing with child abuse content (as in 2015), and revenge porn (as in 2017), before the regulator’s purview and powers were significantly expanded with the introduction of the Online Safety Act in 2021.

However, in the media and political conversation, there is little appetite for a moderate approach, as conveyed in a viral guest appearance by media personality Tracey Holmes on a recent episode of the ABC’s failing show Q+A.

Calling out the double standard in the censorship conversation, Holmes told the studio audience,

“I don’t agree with any kind of censorship in a general sense. I don’t think Elon Musk is contributing to any social cohesion split inside this country. I think our mainstream media is doing enough of that. I think our politicians do enough of that…

“Of course there are fault lines everywhere, but there’s only one way you can stop those fault lines from getting bigger, and that is to have the ability to have the town square to hear different points of view…

“And I think unfortunately we’ve been fed ‘this side or that side’ for so long, people are giving up on mainstream media, that’s why they’re tuning out. That’s why they’re going to YouTube… we have let them down.”

Hopefully, some higher-ups in the corporate media tuned to hear what Holmes had to say.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 10:00

Key Events This Week: All Eyes On CPI As Fed Speakers Galore

Key Events This Week: All Eyes On CPI As Fed Speakers Galore

After a very slow week, the key event for markets this week will be US inflation data with April’s PPI (Tuesday) and CPI (Wednesday) the highlights. We’ll see if the higher-than-expected US inflation seen in Q1 extends into Q2 or not. Markets will also hear from Powell (tomorrow) and Vice Chair Jefferson (today) as the highlights of a busy Fedspeak calendar that are included in the day-by-day list at the end. The next most important US data release is Retail Sales on Wednesday.

Elsewhere China’s monthly activity numbers (Friday) are important, and staying in Asia, we also have Japanese PPI (tomorrow) and Q1 GDP (Thursday). In Europe tomorrow’s ZEW survey in Germany and UK labor market stats are highlights. Swedish CPI (Wednesday) may get a little extra attention after last week's Riksbank cut, only the second G10 currency to ease this cycle after Switzerland earlier in the year. Earnings season quietens with only 7 S&P 500 companies and 69 Stoxx 600 companies reporting.

Previewing the main events now and let’s start chronologically with regards to US inflation. For PPI tomorrow, the headline (+0.3% consensus, vs. +0.2% previously) and core (+0.2% consensus vs. +0.2% last month) are always less important than the key components that feed into the core PCE deflator – namely, health care services, portfolio management and domestic airfares. As DB economists point out, whilst the March health care services print was relatively soft (+0.1%), the six-month annualized growth rate of 3.5% was still higher than at any point in the decade prior to the pandemic. They also highlight that with respect to portfolio management, the strength in asset market performance leading up to March should result in a strong print for April, given the typical lags.

With regards to CPI, DB economists think that given the 3% rise in seasonally adjusted gas prices, headline CPI (+0.37% forecast vs. +0.38% previously) should grow faster than core (+0.29% vs. +0.36%). This would lead to core YoY CPI falling two-tenths to 3.6%, and headline falling a tenth to 3.4%, both in-line with consensus. The three-month annualized rate under this scenario would fall by four-tenths to 4.1%, but the six-month annualized rate would tick up a tenth to 4.0%. As ever all eyes will be on whether rents finally respond more in keeping to the numerous models that have suggested they should already be well below where they currently are.

For Wednesday's US Retail Sales, DB’s headline (+0.5% vs. +0.7% previously), ex-autos (+0.4% vs. +1.1%) and retail control (+0.3% vs. +1.1%) forecasts suggest some payback from a strong March release. There will be a few extra eyes on initial jobless claims this week given the spike to +231k last week after months of relative stability around the +210k level. DB economists think the spike could have been mostly due to NY school holiday dates having been shifted and would therefore expect much of the spike to reverse. We also have US housing starts and permits on Thursday which include a 2019-2024 seasonal revision which could be of note. Various regional factory surveys are out which will help fine tune PMI forecasts.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday May 13

  • Data: US April NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, Japan April M2, M3, Germany March current account balance, Canada March building permits
  • Central banks: Fed's Mester and Jefferson speak
  • Earnings: SoftBank, Tencent Music, Petrobras

Tuesday May 14

  • Data: US April PPI, NFIB small business optimism, UK Q1 output per hour, March weekly earnings, employment change, April jobless claims change, Japan April PPI, machine tool orders, Germany and Eurozone May Zew survey
  • Central banks: Fed's Powell speaks, ECB's Knot speaks, BoE's Pill speaks
  • Earnings: Alibaba, Tencent, Rheinmetall, Home Depot, Vodafone, Sony, Bayer

Wednesday May 15  

  • Data: US April CPI, retail sales, May NAHB housing market index, Empire manufacturing index, March total net TIC flows, business inventories, Italy March general government debt, Eurozone Q1 GDP, employment, March industrial production, Canada March manufacturing sales, April housing starts, existing  home sales, Sweden April CPI
  • Central banks: Fed's Kashkari speaks, ECB's Villeroy speaks, China 1-yr MLF rate
  • Earnings: Cisco, Allianz, Burberry, RWE

Thursday May 16

  • Data: US April industrial production, import and export price indices, housing starts, capacity utilization, building permits, May Philadelphia Fed business outlook, New York Fed services business activity, initial jobless claims, Japan Q1 GDP, March capacity utilization, Italy March trade balance, Norway Q1 GDP
  • Central banks: Fed's Harker, Bostic and Mester speak, ECB's financial stability review, Panetta, De Cos, Nagel and Villeroy speak, BoE's Greene speaks
  • Earnings: Walmart, Baidu, JD.com, Applied Materials, Deere, Siemens, Take-Two, Deutsche Telekom, BT

Friday May 17

  • Data: US April leading index, China April retail sales, industrial production, new home prices, property investment, France Q1 ilo unemployment rate, Canada March international securities transactions
  • Central banks: ECB's Vasle, Guindos, Vujcic, Holzmann and Kazaks speak, BoE's Mann speaks

* * *

Focusing on just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI and retail sales reports on Wednesday and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday. There are several speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, including an event with Vice Chair Jefferson and Cleveland Fed President Mester on Monday and an event with Chair Powell on Tuesday.

Monday, May 13

  • No major economic data releases scheduled.
  • 09:00 AM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson and Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC voter) speak: Fed Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester will take part in a discussion on central bank communications at an event hosted by the Cleveland Fed. Q&A is expected. On April 16th, Vice Chair Jefferson noted that his baseline “continues to be that inflation will decline further with the policy rate held steady at its current level, and that the labor market will remain strong, with labor demand and supply continuing to rebalance.” Vice Chair Jefferson also said that “if incoming data suggest that inflation is more persistent than I currently expect it to be, it will be appropriate to hold in place the current restrictive stance of policy for longer.” On April 17th, President Mester noted that she was still “expecting inflation to come down,” but that she thought the FOMC needed “to be watching and gathering more information before we take action.” President Mester will retire from the FOMC in June.

Tuesday, May 14

  • 06:00 AM NFIB Small business optimism, April (consensus 88.1, last 88.5)
  • 08:30 AM PPI final demand, April (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food and energy, April (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, April (GS +0.2%, last +0.2%)
  • 09:10 AM Fed Governor Cook speaks: Fed Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a speech at an event hosted by the New York Fed. Text is expected. On March 25th, Governor Cook noted that while disinflation “has been bumpy and uneven,” “a careful approach to further policy adjustments can ensure that inflation will return sustainably to 2% while striving to maintain the strong labor market.”
  • 10:00 AM Fed Chair Powell speaks: Fed Chair Jerome Powell will take part in an event with European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot hosted by Netherlands’ Foreign Bankers’ Association. Q&A is expected. At the press conference following the FOMC’s May meeting, Chair Powell pushed back strongly against the possibility of rate hikes, saying that he thinks “it’s unlikely that the next policy rate move will be a hike.” He added that the FOMC would need to see evidence that policy is not sufficiently restrictive in order to hike but is not seeing that. Chair Powell also suggested that he did not take much signal from the inflation uptick in Q1, emphasized the “lag structures built into the inflation process,” and noted that he expected sequential inflation to slow this year.

Wednesday, May 15

  • 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing survey, April (consensus -10.3, last -14.3)
  • 08:30 AM CPI (mom), April (GS +0.37%, consensus +0.4%, last +0.4%); Core CPI (mom), April (GS +0.28%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.4%); CPI (yoy), April (GS +3.42%, consensus +3.4%, last +3.5%); Core CPI (yoy), April (GS +3.61%, consensus +3.6%, last +3.8%): We estimate a 0.28% increase in April core CPI (mom sa), which would lower the year-on-year rate by two tenths to 3.6%. Our forecast reflects a 2.5% pullback in airfares and net declines in auto prices (used -0.8%, new unchanged) based on rising inventories, mixed auction prices, and a pullback in incentives. We also assume another decline in communication prices (-0.25%) now that post-holiday price normalization has run its course; Adobe data also indicates falling prices for consumer electronics. We estimate a further slowdown in the primary rent measure (+0.37% vs. +0.41% in March) reflecting the continued softness in apartment inflation, but we assume continued strength in OER (+0.45% vs. +0.44% in March) given the resilience of the single-family segment. On the positive side, we forecast another large gain in car insurance rates (+1.6% vs. +2.6% in March) based on online price data, and we assume a 2bp boost to core CPI from this year’s tax preparation price hikes (within financial services CPI). We estimate a 0.37% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher energy (+1.7%) and food (+0.3%) prices. Our forecast is consistent with a 22bp increase in core PCE in April.
  • 08:30 AM Retail sales, April (GS flat, consensus +0.4%, last +0.7%); Retail sales ex-auto, April (GS -0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +1.1%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, April (GS -0.4%, consensus +0.1%, last +1.0%); Core retail sales, April (GS -0.4%, consensus +0.1%, last +1.1%)... We estimate core retail sales fell 0.4% in April (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; mom sa). Our forecast reflects payback from strong Easter spending in March, as well as sequential softness in credit card spending across retailers and restaurants. We estimate unchanged headline retail sales, reflecting higher auto sales and gasoline prices. 10:00 AM Business inventories, March (consensus flat, last +0.4%) 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, May (consensus 51, last 51)
  • 12:00 PM Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari will take part in a fireside chat at the 2024 Williston Basin Petroleum Conference. Q&A is expected. On May 7th, President Kashkari said that he thought “the most likely scenario is we sit here [at the current fed funds rate] for an extended period of time.” President Kashkari noted that the FOMC could cut rates “if inflation starts to tick back down or we saw more marked weakening in the labor market,” but that “if we get convinced eventually that inflation is embedded or entrenched now at 3% and that we need to go higher, we would do that.”:
  • 03:20 PM Fed Governor Bowman speaks: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman will speak at the DC Blockchain Summit 2024 in Washington D.C. Q&A is expected. On May 10th, Governor Bowman said that she had “not written in any cuts” for 2024 in the FOMC’s latest Summary of Economic Projections. Governor Bowman noted that her “expectation would be a number of months of progress, … and a number of probably meetings as well before I might be comfortable with” interest rate cuts.

Thursday, May 16

  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, May (GS 9.0, consensus 7.5, last 15.5); We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed mane the economy and eventually get us to 2%,” but that he was not “in a mad-dash hurry to get there if all these other good things are happening.” President Bostic also emphasized that if “inflation starts moving in the opposite direction away from our target, I don’t think we’ll have any other option but to respond to that,” noting that he would “have to be open to increasing rates.”

Friday, May 17

  • There are no major economic data releases scheduled.
  • 10:15 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will deliver a speech on the payments system at the International Organization for Standardization Technical Committee. Text is expected. On March 27th, Governor Waller noted that he continued to “believe that further progress will make it appropriate for the FOMC to begin reducing the target range for the fed funds rate this year. But until that progress materializes, I am not ready to take that step.” Governor Waller also emphasized that “the strength of the US economy and resilience of the labor market mean the risk of waiting a little longer to ease policy is small and significantly lower than acting too soon and possibly squandering our progress on inflation.”
  • 12:15 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will deliver a commencement address at the University of San Francisco School of Management. Text is expected. On May 9th, President Daly noted that the policy rate was “restrictive, but it might take more time to just bring inflation down.” She also emphasized that “it’s far too early to declare that the labor market is fragile or faltering.”
  • 05:45 PM Fed Governor Kugler speaks: Fed Governor Adriana Kugler will deliver a commencement address at the Frank Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy at the University of Virginia. Text is expected. On April 3rd, Governor Kugler noted that her “baseline expectation is that further disinflation can be accomplished without a significant rise in unemployment,” and that “if disinflation and labor market conditions proceed as I am currently expecting, then some lowering of the policy rate this year would be appropriate.”

Data Sourced from DB, Meta and GS

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 09:40

"I See Dead People": Bragg's Case Against Trump Goes Paranormal

"I See Dead People": Bragg's Case Against Trump Goes Paranormal

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Below is my column on the completion of the testimony of Stormy Daniels and the start of the testimony of Michael Cohen. With a dubious legal theory, the testimony has only magnified the criticism of the prosecution as parading sensational rather than material evidence before the jury and the public. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is losing even CNN hosts and legal analysts. Fareed Zakaria noted “I doubt the New York indictment would have been brought against a defendant whose name was not Donald Trump” Elie Honig has observed that, if brought in a less democratic district, “I would say there’s no chance of a conviction.” The Bragg case was never “normal” but last week it seemed to go paranormal.

Here is the column:

“I see dead people.” Before this week, that claim was most associated with the nine-year-old character Cole Sear from the 1999 film “The Sixth Sense.” But now it is one of the talents claimed by former adult film actress Stormy Daniels in her bizarre testimony in Manhattan during former President Donald Trump’s trial.

It turns out that speaking to the dead was one of the few relevant things Daniels had to offer in the case, which is now on a collision course with a motion for acquittal before the case even goes to the jury.

The Daniels testimony will live in infamy in the annals of criminal justice. For two days, she offered lurid and completely irrelevant details whose only possible purpose was to humiliate Trump. Admitting that she was coached by the prosecution in her testimony, it was clear that she was there not to win a case but to win an election. Judge Juan Merchan allowed this legal burlesque to unfold in his courtroom, later blaming defense counsel who had vociferously objected to her appearance and the scope of the examination.

The cross examination was devastating.

It shattered her laughable claim that she had not really been seeking money in shaking Trump down for a non-disclosure agreement, a claim contradicted by her own former lawyer. Daniels also revealed that she had spoken with the dead, and that a ghost had once held her boyfriend under water in a bathtub. She also said that she lived in a haunted house, only to discover later that the spirit haunting it was actually a large possum.

In a case based on a dead misdemeanor and a rapidly falling heart rate on the manufactured felony, one can understand the appeal of witnesses who can speak for the dead.

Indeed, Daniels’s graphic testimony may prove the moral high point of this trial, since serial perjurer and disbarred attorney Michael Cohen is scheduled to testify Monday.

Cohen recently broke his pledge, midway through the trial, to stop attacking and taunting Trump. Cohen has insisted that he deserves the protection of the gag order by Judge Merchan as a witness, despite serious constitutional concerns. Merchan continues to threaten Trump with jail if he responds to Cohen’s unrelenting attacks. Merchan waited for the weekend before his testimony to suggest that the prosecutors tell Cohen to stop the public antics.

But it remains unclear what the order is protecting Cohen from. Not only is he trolling for money on social media with reference to the trial, but he is also widely being attacked by others. It is only Trump who cannot address his attacks, including political opposition to his campaign.

Cohen’s testimony will be the culmination of this travesty of a trial. But Bragg already jumped the shark with Daniels. After three weeks, legal experts are still debating what the crime was that Trump was seeking to conceal by recording payments for a standard non-disclosure agreement as a legal expense.

(That is the same characterization used by Hillary Clinton’s campaign for its funding for the infamous Steele dossier.)

It is still unclear that Trump even knew how the payments were characterized, and the alleged false record was not even created until after the election was over. Yet he stands accused of using the “false business records” to somehow steal or rig an election that was already over.

After this circus with Cohen is complete, Trump will be allowed to testify.

He would be insane to do so. Merchan has already said that he will allow a broad scope to cross-examination, making any appearance unlikely.

That is when Merchan will face a key test of judicial ethics.

He has failed to protect the rights of the defendant from a baseless, politically motivated prosecution. He could insist that he simply felt Bragg had a right to present his case. He will soon be done and, as expected, it is entirely based on Cohen, a disbarred perjurer who will ask for his former client to be sent to prison for following his own legal advice.

After Bragg closes the prosecution’s case, the defense will make a standard motion for dismissal. Merchan should grant that motion.

There has been no showing of an actual crime, let alone a clear record tying Trump to key decisions or actions.

Merchan will then have to decide whether he has the courage that Bragg lacked. Bragg knew that this case was ridiculous. The Justice Department had declined any prosecution for a federal campaign finance violation, the theory referenced in the case. Indeed, it did not even seek a civil fine over the payments. Bragg’s predecessor had also rejected the prosecution.

When Bragg took over, he similarly balked and stopped the move toward an indictment. But two prosecutors in his office, Carey R. Dunne and Mark F. Pomerantz, then resigned and started a public pressure campaign to get New Yorkers to demand prosecution.

Pomerantz went even further and took an action that some of us viewed as deeply unethical and unprofessional. Over the objections of his own former office and colleagues, he published a book on the case against Trump — then still under investigation and not charged, let alone convicted. It was a pressure campaign directed at Bragg. In New York, Bragg knew that he would either have to indict Trump or forget about reelection.

Merchan will now have to make the same choice in yielding to politics or principle…or to the paranormal.

He has already allowed every effort to bring this dead misdemeanor back to life.

But even Stormy Daniels may not be able to serve as  Merchan’s medium in reaching back eight years.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 09:20

Apple Reportedly Near Deal To Infuse ChatGPT Into iPhones

Apple Reportedly Near Deal To Infuse ChatGPT Into iPhones

Apple is nearing a deal with Microsoft-backed OpenAI to infuse its large language model, known as ChatGPT, into the future iPhone operating system, according to Bloomberg, citing sources familiar with the discussions. 

The two sides have been finalizing terms for a pact to use ChatGPT features in Apple's iOS 18, the next iPhone operating system, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the situation is private. Apple also has held talks with Alphabet Inc.'s Google about licensing that company's Gemini chatbot. Those discussions haven't led to an agreement, but are ongoing. -Bloomberg

Bloomberg reported a few weeks ago that the discussions with OpenAI had intensified. 

In a note to clients on Monday, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives "expect exclusivity around a number of...advanced OpenAI features on the iPhone that Apple will build around a broader AI strategy on iPhone 16 and iOS." 

Last May, Apple CEO Tim Cook expressed cautious optimism about the proliferation of artificial intelligence services hitting the market, indicating that "there are a number of issues that need to be sorted."

"We've obviously made enormous progress, integrating AI and machine learning throughout our ecosystem," Cook said, adding, "And we weaved it into products and features for many years." 

News of ChatGPT potentially being added to iOS 18 comes ahead of Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference next month, where artificial intelligence is expected to be a significant focus of the event. 

In markets, shares of Google in premarket trading fell nearly 2%, while Apple shares were higher by more than 1.5%. 

Now, ChatGPT is set to become mass-adopted across iPhones worldwide - as long as the user updates the operating software. There are more than 2 billion active Apple products (iPhones, iPads, Macs, and other hardware devices).

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 09:00

Nvidia Rivals Gold As Shield Against Inflation

Nvidia Rivals Gold As Shield Against Inflation

Authored by Edward Harrison via Bloomberg,

The biggest US tech stocks are not only a bet on innovation but also a possible hedge against inflation, according to some respondents in the latest Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey.

Gold, the haven of choice for decades, is still seen as the best safeguard against the risk of rising prices, according to 46% of survey participants.

But nearly a third said the tech behemoths are their first pick for the role.

Source: Bloomberg MLIV Pulse survey May 6-10. Respondents who chose `other' wrote in: bonds, cash, commodities, large caps.

The response highlights the dominant role that companies like Nvidia Corp., Amazon.com Inc., and Meta Platforms Inc. are playing in the US financial markets as they expand their sway over major swaths of the economy.

That has allowed them to generate steady profits, stoking rallies that are making investors confident that they will continue to be a source of solid gains.

Inflation in the US has come down significantly from the scorching levels in 2022, but it surpassed economists’ expectations during the first three months of the year and has remained stubbornly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

That has left price increases by and large the biggest concern among investors.

A majority of the survey’s respondents - 59% of 393 - cited resurgent inflation as the top tail risk facing financial markets between now and the end of the year.

The next reading of the consumer price index is scheduled for this Wednesday and is likely to come around 3.4%.

Nvidia, for example, has surged more than six times since inflation first rose past 2% in March 2021. Even Apple Inc., which has seen peaks and valleys, has outperformed the broader market in that timeframe, gaining over 50% to the S&P 500’s roughly 30%. Still, like other growth stocks, tech companies are sensitive to changes in inflation and interest-rates, because their valuations hinge largely on future profits.

About a quarter of respondents pointed to a US recession as the top risk of 2024. In that case, Treasuries and not stocks would offer a better shield, the survey shows.

Source: Bloomberg MLIV Pulse survey May 6-10

The surprising resilience of the economy despite the Fed’s tighter monetary policy has kept cash flowing into the US, where bond yields are high and corporate profits continue to grow.

The influx has been fueling a renewed rise in the US dollar, which is overwhelmingly seen as the best currency for weathering times of market turmoil.

Almost three-quarters of the respondents said the dollar was the best haven currency, with the Swiss franc getting about 23% of the vote and the Japanese yen about six times less. Among respondents from the US and Canada, dollar got 86% of the vote, while in Europe, 43% of participants went for the Swiss currency.

The yen has lost its haven status because of its depreciation against the dollar and due to Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy, the survey showed. The yawning gap between interest rates in Japan and the US has sent the yen to the lowest levels since 1990 earlier this year.

Gold is up almost 15% this year with the People’s Bank of China as one of the largest sources of demand. 

With the confiscation of Russia’s dollar assets in the wake of the war in Ukraine, many countries are trying to diversify away from the dollar, with gold a natural beneficiary.

Only 13% of respondents in the MLIV Pulse survey said that the search for geopolitically unaligned assets has benefited Bitcoin.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 08:40

Futures Gain With All Time Highs In Sight As Key CPI Report Looms

Futures Gain With All Time Highs In Sight As Key CPI Report Looms

US equity futures extended last week's solid gains when they traded just about 1% below all time highs, as investors awaited key CPI later this week that will shape the Fed's actions in coming months. As of 7:30am, contracts on the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% (but still below Friday's highs), after the index posted a third straight week of gains; meanwhile contracts on the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.3% even though Alphabet dropped 2% in premarket trading after Bloomberg reported that Apple is closing in on an agreement to use OpenAI’s technology on the iPhone. Treasury yields dipped and the dollar was steady. In addition to the week's inflation data(both PPI and CPI) a handful of Fed speeches will also be in focus this week, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson, who speak later in the day.

In premarket trading, Alphabet shares fall 2% as Apple is said to be closing in on an agreement to use OpenAI’s technology on the iPhone. Amusingly, GameStop shares soared and on track for the best month since March 2021 after the first (rather cryptic) tweet by Roaring Kitty after 3 years of silence on the platform, has sparked yet another massive short squeeze in the otherwise worthless company, and is allowing Keith Gil to dump stock at a huge gain.

Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • AC Immune shares jump 53% after Takeda signs a worldwide option and license agreement for the biotech’s active immunotherapies targeting amyloid beta, including ACI-24.060 for the treatment of Alzheimer’s disease.
  • Cisco Systems shares tick 0.5% higher after losing its only negative analyst rating as BNP Paribas Exane upgrades to neutral from underperform, with limited downside now seen to consensus estimates for the networking equipment maker.
  • Incyte climbs 5.5% after announcing that its board approved a share repurchase authorization of $2 billion.
  • Intel rises 1.2% after the Wall Street Journal reports that the chipmaker is in advanced talks for a deal in which Apollo Global Management would provide more than $11 billion to help the company build a plant in Ireland, citing people familiar with the matter.
  • Penn Entertainment (PENN) drops 2.9% after BofA downgrades the casino and gaming company to neutral following what it describes as disappointing results.
  • Squarespace (SQSP) rises 13% after entering into a definitive agreement to go private with Permira in an all-cash transaction valued at approximately $6.9 billion.
  • Tencent Music Entertainment’s US-listed shares are up 3.5% after the online music platform reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.

Ahead of Wednesday's all-important CPI report, all eyes will be on US producer prices due Tuesday. Data last week pointed to an economy that is slowing amid stubborn inflation, posing a challenge to the outlook for Fed policy.

“We need a catalyst to break the range on rates or change our view on risky assets,” said Mohit Kumar, Jefferies Europe chief economist. “US CPI data this week could be a potential catalyst. Even though US data has started to show some signs of moderating, inflation remains sticky, creating fears of stagflation.”

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 index was little changed after posting its best weekly return since January (as we previewed just days prior) amid optimism the ECB is poised to ease policy as soon as next month. The autos and health care sectors led gains, while construction and utilities stocks were the biggest laggards. Among individual European movers, AP Moller-Maersk A/S jumped as much as 10% in Copenhagen after analysts at Citigroup Global Markets lifted their earnings estimates on the stock to reflect a recent rise in freight rates. Shell Plc rose to a record in London. Here are the most notable movers:

  • Maersk shares jump as much as 10% to touch a three-month high, as the shipping stock catches up after Danish markets were closed for holidays on Thursday and Friday last week. Analysts at Citi lifted their earnings estimates on the stock to reflect the recent rise in freight rates.
  • OX2 shares gain as much as 44% as private equity firm EQT is offering 16.4 billion kronor ($1.5 billion) for the wind park developer.
  • Gulf Keystone shares jump as much as 15% after the oil and gas producer operating in the Kurdistan region of Iraq demonstrated it can be profitable and generate cash from selling its output locally, according to analysts, with a key export pipeline still closed. This is reflected by the $10m share buyback announced this morning.
  • Diploma shares rise as much as 11% to touch a record high, the biggest gainer on the FTSE 100 index on Monday. The construction components firm reported solid results and upped its revenue and margin forecasts for the full year, while analysts noted a strong tailwind from M&A.
  • Nobia gains as much as 9%, the most in a month, after Nordea reinstated its coverage of the Swedish kitchen-interiors firm with a buy rating, expecting a recovery in construction market and consumer confidence to be a boon for the company.
  • NKT gains as much as 9% after Nordea “firmly” reiterated its buy rating for the Copenhagen-listed power-cable manufacturer, predicting that the continued electrification of society will be a huge boon for the firm in the coming years.
  • Almirall rises as much as 8.7% as the skin-health focused pharmaceuticals company delivers sales ahead of expectations. The beat was led by the performance of its Ilumetri psoriasis product. Meanwhile, guidance for the full year has been maintained.
  • Ceconomy rises as much as 6.2% after the German retailer of consumer electronics gave a better-than-expected profit forecast for the year. Baader Bank and Oddo point to Western/Southern Europe segment as a main driver.
  • Victrex shares drop as much as 5.6% after the polymer maker reported a 92% drop in pretax profit for the first half of the year due to high inventory levels and destocking among medical device customers. The firm has “a lot of work” to do in the second half of the year, according to Jefferies, which expects double-digit downgrades to 2024 consensus estimates.
  • BAE Systems shares in London fall as much as 2.9% after closing at a record high on Friday. The UK defense company was downgraded to neutral by analysts at BofA Securities, who see limited upside following the stock’s recent re-rating. That comes amid broader pressure on the European defense sector this morning.

The euro-area economy will expand more quickly than previously thought this year as the bloc’s biggest member, Germany, exits more than a year of near-stagnation, a Bloomberg poll of analysts showed. The results capture the improving mood in the region, with first-quarter GDP readings surprising to the upside and inflation is receding toward 2%.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were mixed with Chinese technology companies gaining ahead of earnings and the release of eco data this week. Hong Kong’s equity benchmark climbed to the highest since August, and mainland China equities also rose. But shares in South Korea, Japan and Australia fell. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.3%, reversing earlier losses of as much as 0.2%, after reports that China is planning to issue ultra-long bonds to support its economy. TSMC, Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings were the biggest contributors to the gauge’s gains. Mainland Chinese shares pared declines after initially falling amid concerns over an escalation of US tariffs and weak local credit data. Benchmarks in Hong Kong gained, with a gauge of technology stocks listed in the financial hub headed for its highest close since November. Taiwan shares also rose, while indexes in Japan fell.

News of the China’s plan to sell ultra-long special bonds boosted sentiment after weak data from the country published over the weekend had led to initial Asian stock losses. The specter of further US-China trade tensions also weighed on equities with a report on how much President Biden is set to increase tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

“You are looking at a slightly muddied growth outlook” for China, Sonal Desai, chief investment officer at Franklin Templeton, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. Regardless of who gets elected in the US presidential election in November, we are going to see an escalation of US-China trade tensions, he said.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index edged 0.1% lower.  “After the dovish FOMC meeting and the soft April NFP sucked the momentum from the dollar’s upside, the question is whether price data can actively contribute to the dollar’s downside,” FX strategists at ING write in a note, adding that a softer PPI reading could point to a lower core PCE deflator figure, the Fed’s preferred inflation reading, due on May 31. This week’s data follows a US labour report earlier in the month which showed a slowdown in jobs growth and raised speculation that the Fed may start cutting the rate in the coming months

Traders are betting on a 73% possibility that the Fed will start cutting rates in September, little changed from late last week; roughly 40 basis points of cuts are priced in through the end of the year

In rates, treasuries are slightly richer across the curve, following similar gains for bunds and gilts during European morning. US yields richer by 1bp to 2bp across the curve with 10-year around 4.48%, about 1.5bp lower than Friday’s close, slightly underperforming bunds and gilts in the sector. Curve spreads are steeper by less than 1bp. Wednesday’s April CPI report is poised to provide the biggest test yet of the bond rally that started this month, when Jerome Powell swatted away worries that the Fed may raise interest rates; PPI data on Tuesday will also be in focus. Trading ranges narrow ahead of critical PPI and CPI reports Tuesday and Wednesday. A busy corporate new-issue slate is expected, with a weekly total of about $30 billion anticipated. The next scheduled Treasury auction is 20-year bond sale on May 22

In commodities, oil gained on optimism China’s bond plan may boost growth, and traders assessed the willingness of OPEC+ to agree to extend supply curbs at its upcoming policy meeting. Iron ore and copper extended gains

It has been a strong session for Bitcoin, climbing back up over 63k, while Ethereum is looking to reclaim USD 3k.

Looking at today's calendar, the US economic data slate includes April New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations at 11am; retail sales and industrial production are also ahead this week. Fed officials’ scheduled speeches include Mester and Jefferson at 9am; Cook, Powell, Kashkari, Bowman, Barr, Harker, Bostic, Waller, Daly and Kugler appear later in the week

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,251.00
  • STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 520.98
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 178.02
  • MXAPJ up 0.5% to 556.98
  • Nikkei down 0.1% to 38,179.46
  • Topix down 0.2% to 2,724.08
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.8% to 19,115.06
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,148.02
  • Sensex little changed at 72,722.04
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,750.03
  • Kospi little changed at 2,727.21
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.51%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0777
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $83.04/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.7% to $2,343.69
  • US Dollar Index little changed at 105.30

Top Overnight News

  • China’s CPI rose for a third straight month in April, increasing at a pace of 0.3% compared with a year earlier, according to official data released Saturday, edging up from March’s 0.1% reading and surpassing the 0.2% growth expected by economists. Meanwhile, the PPI fell 2.5% in April from a year earlier for a 19th consecutive month of declines. WSJ
  • China’s credit in April shrank for the first time as government bond sales slowed, while loan expansion was worse than expected in a sign of weak demand. Aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, decreased by almost 200 billion yuan ($27.7 billion) in April from the previous month, according to Bloomberg calculations of data released by the PBOC. That’s the first time the measure has declined since comparable data began in 2017, reflecting a contraction in financing activity. BBG
  • Chinese authorities have kicked off plans to sell Rmb1tn ($140bn) of long-dated bonds, as Beijing raises spending to stimulate the economy. FT
  • In the past three days, Russian troops, backed by fighter jets, artillery and lethal drones, have poured across Ukraine’s northeastern border and seized at least nine villages and settlements, ¬and more square miles per day than at almost any other point in the war, save the very beginning. In some places, Ukrainian troops are retreating, and Ukrainian commanders are blaming each other for the defeats. NYT
  • Iraq’s oil minister on Sat said the country won’t agree to any additional voluntary oil production cuts, although he expressed support for the overall OPEC+ alliance in more conciliatory comments on Sunday. RTRS
  • Stubbornly sticky rent is preventing the Fed from winning the “last mile” portion of its war on inflation and commencing policy easing. WSJ
  • Biden’s campaign considers Haley voters as a core part of its coalition in Nov, and has been heartened by the fact she continues to perform so well in GOP primaries despite being out of the race for weeks (Trump meanwhile has made little effort to court Haley or her supporters). Politico
  • McDonald’s is looking to launch a $5 meal plan in the US, a sign the company is becoming more aggressive on price to recapture market/mindshare as consumers dial back spending. BBG  
  • Apple has closed in on an agreement with OpenAI to use the startup’s technology on the iPhone, part of a broader push to bring artificial intelligence features to its devices, according to people familiar with the matter. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly cautious after mixed inflation and soft financing data from China over the weekend, although Chinese markets found some solace from China's plans to issue ultra-long treasury bonds.  ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in the energy sector and amid a tepid NAB Business survey. Nikkei 225 lacked firm direction with price action choppy amid a slew of earnings releases. Hang Seng & Shanghai Comp were initially pressured after mixed inflation data and disappointing financing data which showed a rare contraction in Aggregate Financing, while expectations of increased US tariffs on Chinese EVs also provided early headwinds. However, the Hong Kong benchmark then recovered and climbed above the 19,000 level amid tech strength, while the mainland pared the majority of its losses as the attention turned to China's plans to issue ultra-long treasury bonds on May 17th.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese authorities kicked off plans to sell USD 140bln of long-dated bonds, according to the FT. It was later reported that China's Finance Ministry is to issue ultra-long treasury bonds on May 17th in which it plans to issue 20yr, 30-year and 50-year treasuries worth CNY 300bln, CNY 600bln and CNY 100bln, respectively, while it plans to complete the issuance of long-term treasury bonds by end-November.
  • Country Garden (2007 HK) said it repaid onshore coupons within the grace period, according to Reuters.
  • BoJ offered to buy JPY 375bln in 1-3yr JGBs, JPY 425bln in 5-10yr JGBs and JPY 150bln in 10-25yr JGBs (reduced 5yr-10yr purchases from a previous JPY 475bln).
  • Australia’s government cut its 2024/2025 real GDP growth forecast to 2% from 2.25% and cut its 2025/2026 growth forecast to 2.25% from 2.50%, while it said inflation could slow to the RBA’s 2%-3% target range by year-end which is sooner than previously expected, according to Reuters.
  • Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) Q1 2024 (USD): EPS 0.13 (exp. 0.14), Revenue 0.94bln (exp. .91bln).

European bourses, Stoxx600 (U/C) are mixed and trading on either side of the unchanged mark, in what has been a very quiet European morning. European sectors are mixed; Autos tops the pile, with optimism potentially deriving from Chinese CPI as well as new long-dated bond sales, which will help to provide liquidity for the Chinese markets. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%, RTY +0.3%) are very modestly in the green, following the tentative price action also seen in Europe.

Top European News

  • UK PM Sunak is set to declare the UK stands 'at a crossroads' as he readies the Tories ahead of an election, according to FT.
  • Socialists were ahead in the Catalan regional election with 41 seats out of the 135-seat chamber and separatists Junts were second with 36 seats after 91% of votes were counted, according to Reuters.
  • S&P affirmed Poland at A-; Outlook Stable.

FX

  • Dollar is modestly softer, having spent much of the European morning flat, with recent EUR strength pushing the index lower, albeit marginally so. Currently, the DXY is towards the bottom end of today's 105.36-20 range.
  • EUR is incrementally firmer vs the USD, catching a slight bid in recent trade though with specifics light. Currently holding around its 50DMA at 1.0786.
  • GBP is flat vs USD, with very modest early morning weakness petering out. Focus this week will be March’s job data, as well as potential commentary from BoE Chief Economist Pill.
  • USD/JPY is incrementally firmer, having wobbled very briefly after the BoJ said it reduced its purchases of 5yr-10yr JGBs. The announcement led USD/JPY to as low as 155.57, before quickly paring the move. As it stands, the pair holds above its 20DMA, with the high for today at 155.95.
  • Mixed trade for the Antipodeans, initially softened by the cautious risk tone in APAC trade and after the PBoC set a weaker reference rate setting. Weakness in the Kiwi, after inflation expectations, has led NZD/USD as low as 0.60.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1030 vs exp. 7.2284 (prev. 7.1011).

Fixed Income

  • USTs are a touch firmer but near unchanged overall as the benchmark takes a slight breather from Friday's marked bearish action but remain within a couple of ticks of the 108-21+ trough from Friday with last week's 108-19+ base below.
  • Bund price action has been very contained and largely directionless. Drivers thus far have been exceptionally limited and the European docket ahead is very light.
  • Gilts in-fitting with the UK docket thin today with the narrative much the same as for EGBs above. Gilts themselves in a thin 20 tick range after a very contained open. Currently around the 97.75 mark above the 97.66 low.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks are on the front-foot, however action is modest and we remain within around a USD 1/bbl of Friday's base. Focus today has been on commentary from the Iraqi Oil Minister and awaiting updates out of Rafah. Brent July current holding at USD 83/bbl.
  • Precious metals are slipping a touch but with the action more of a gentle decline than a pronounced fall thus far. Specifics light and impetus from broader assets limited as overall market action is fairly contained; XAU near session lows around USD 2,240.
  • Base metals largely followed the fortunes of China overnight with initial action bearish on the overall soft tone and weak financing data from the region.
  • Iraqi Oil Minister said on Saturday that Iraq has made enough voluntary production cuts and will not agree to any future reduction taken by OPEC. However, it was reported on Sunday that the Oil Minister said the voluntary oil output cut is subject to agreement between OPEC countries and any negotiable proposals may be presented at the time, while he added they are part of OPEC and it is necessary to comply with any decisions made by the organisation. The state news agency also reported the Oil Minister said Iraq is committed to voluntary output cuts made by OPEC members and is keen on cooperating with members to achieve more stability in global oil markets.
  • Iraqi Oil Ministry launched 29 oil and gas projects within the fifth and sixth licensing rounds.
  • Qatar set June marine crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 1.75/bbl and land crude OSP was set at Oman/Dubai plus USD 0.85/bbl, according to a pricing document.
  • QatarEnergy is to acquire two new exploration blocks offshore Egypt in which it signed a farm-in agreement with ExxonMobil (XOM) to acquire a 40% participating interest in the exploration blocks.
  • Russian Deputy PM Novak said Russia will be able to increase fuel output in the future, according to TASS.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Israel’s IDF said it ordered residents of additional east Rafah areas to evacuate and head to the humanitarian zone in Al-Mawasi, according to Reuters.
  • Israeli military spokesperson said Hamas has been trying to re-establish military capabilities in Gaza’s Jabalia and Israel is trying to prevent that, while it announced that Israeli forces in Gaza’s Zeitun killed 30 Palestinian militants. It was separately reported that Israel's military opened a new crossing into the Gaza Strip in coordination with the US government for humanitarian aid, according to Reuters.
  • US State Department said Secretary of State Blinken stressed to Israeli Defence Minister Gallant the urgent need to protect civilians and aid workers in Gaza and urged to ensure humanitarian access to Gaza, while Blinken reaffirmed to Gallant US opposition to a major ground military operation in Rafah, according to Al Jazeera and Sky News Arabia.

Geopolitics: Other

  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said battles are ongoing at seven border villages in Kharkiv and the Donetsk situation is particularly tense, while Ukraine’s military chief said fighting is ongoing and warned of a difficult situation in the Kharkiv region, according to Reuters.
  • Ukrainian shelling killed at least 9 people and injured more than a dozen in an apartment block collapse in Russia’s Belgorod, according to Reuters.
  • Russian President Putin conducted a surprise reshuffle of top security officials whereby he removed Patrushev as head of the Security Council who will be moved to a new job and proposed that Defence Minister Shoigu become the new head of the Security Council, while he proposed economic adviser Belousov to become the new Defence Minister, according to FT.
  • Russian Defence Ministry said its forces have taken five settlements in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region.
  • Ukrainian drone attack has damaged an oil depot/power substation in Belgorod and Lipestk regions of Russia, via Reuters citing Ukrainian intelligence.

US Event Calendar

  • 11:00: April NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation exp; prior 3.00%

Central Bank Speakers

  • 09:00: Fed’s Mester, Jefferson Discuss Central Bank Communications

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After perusing my social media accounts, I think I’m the only person on the planet who couldn’t find the aurora borealis this weekend. All I have to show for my efforts are a few black sky pictures on my iPhone. I had more success in finding a decent song at Eurovision which is saying something.

The main thing that will light up the skies for markets this week will be US inflation data with April’s PPI (Tuesday) and CPI (Wednesday) the highlights. We’ll see if the higher-than-expected US inflation seen in Q1 extends into Q2 or not. Markets will  also hear from Powell (tomorrow) and Vice Chair Jefferson (today) as the highlights of a busy Fedspeak calendar that are included in the day-by-day list at the end. The next most important US data release is Retail Sales on Wednesday.

Elsewhere China’s monthly activity numbers (Friday) are important, and staying in Asia, we also have Japanese PPI (tomorrow) and Q1 GDP (Thursday). In Europe tomorrow’s ZEW survey in Germany and UK labour market stats are highlights. Swedish CPI (Wednesday) may get a little extra attention after last week's Riksbank cut, only the second G10 currency to ease this cycle after Switzerland earlier in the year. Earnings season quietens with only 7 S&P 500 companies and 69 Stoxx 600 companies reporting.

Previewing the main events now and let’s start chronologically with regards to US inflation. For PPI tomorrow, the headline (+0.4% DB forecast, +0.3% consensus, vs. +0.2% previously) and core (+0.3% DB, +0.2% consensus vs. +0.2% last month) are always less important than the key components that feed into the core PCE deflator – namely, health care services, portfolio management and domestic airfares. As our economists point out, whilst the March health care services print was relatively soft (+0.1%), the six-month annualised growth rate of 3.5% was still higher than at any point in the decade prior to the pandemic. They also highlight that with respect to portfolio management, the strength in asset market performance leading up to March should result in a strong print for April, given the typical lags.

With regards to CPI, our economists previewed it in full here (see "April CPI preview & webinar registration"), and think that given the 3% rise in seasonally adjusted gas prices, headline CPI (+0.37% forecast vs. +0.38% previously) should grow faster than core (+0.29% vs. +0.36%). This would lead to core YoY CPI falling two-tenths to 3.6%, and headline falling a tenth to 3.4%, both in-line with consensus. The three-month annualised rate under this scenario would fall by four-tenths to 4.1%, but the six-month annualised rate would tick up a tenth to 4.0%. As ever all eyes will be on whether rents finally respond more in keeping to the numerous models that have suggested they should already be well below where they currently are.

For Wednesday's US Retail Sales, DB’s headline (+0.5% vs. +0.7% previously), ex-autos (+0.4% vs. +1.1%) and retail control (+0.3% vs. +1.1%) forecasts suggest some payback from a strong March release. There will be a few extra eyes on initial jobless claims this week given the spike to +231k last week after months of relative stability around the +210k level. Our economists think the spike could have been mostly due to NY school holiday dates having been shifted and would therefore expect much of the spike to reverse. We also have US housing starts and permits on Thursday which include a 2019-2024 seasonal revision which could be of note.

Various regional factory surveys are out which will help fine tune PMI forecasts. Over the weekend Chinese consumer inflation edged higher but producer prices stayed very weak. CPI came in at +0.3% YoY in April from +0.1% YoY in March and a tenth above expectations. PPI however fell -2.5% (-2.3% expected and -2.8% in March). So, deflation still remains intense in manufacturing sectors. Mainland Chinese stocks are lower with the CSI (-0.11%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.09%) both trading slightly lower on prospects of more US trade tariffs on China across various industries with electric vehicles expected to be a particular target according to Bloomberg.

Elsewhere the KOSPI (-0.28%) and Nikkei (-0.20%) are also edging lower in early trade. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (+0.38%) is bucking the regional negative trend. S&P 500 (+0.04%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.07%) futures are trading just above flat with USTs fairly stable as I type.

Coming back to China, the government plans to sell the first batch of its 1 trillion yuan ($138 billion) of ultra-long dated bonds on Friday, ramping up its spending to stimulate the economy. The total issuance will include 300 billion yuan 20-year bonds, 600 billion yuan 30-year notes and 100 billion yuan in 50-year tenor and the bonds will be sold from May through November.

Recapping last week now. On Friday we had a weak reading for the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May. The headline sentiment index dropped well below expectations, falling from 77.2 to 67.4 (vs 76.2 expected), the lowest level since November. Respondents’ view of current conditions also deteriorated in May, falling from 79.0 to 68.8 (vs 79.0 expected).

Notably, the year-ahead inflation expectations rose from 3.2% last month to 3.5% (vs 3.2% expected), erasing all the index’s decline earlier this year. The 5-10yr expectation also rose from 3.0% to 3.1% (vs 3.0% expected).

The University of Michigan release helped pare back some of the week’s upbeat tone. The upside in inflation expectations saw the number of Fed rate cuts expected by December decline by -5.1bps on Friday (-4.9bps over the week), erasing mid week optimism that monetary policy was heading to a less restrictive stance. Over in Europe it was a similar story, with the amount of ECB cuts priced by December coming down -3.2bps on Friday (and -5.0bps over the week) to 69bps.

Off the back of this, US Treasuries sold off. The 2yr yield rose +5.1bps on Friday, and +4.9bps on the week. Similarly, 10yr yields rose +4.3bps on Friday, although this failed to fully wipe out the decline in yields earlier in the week, as yields ended the week down -1.3bps at 4.50%. Meanwhile in Europe, yields on 10yr bunds were up +2.2bps (+2.2bps on Friday).

In the equity space, the S&P 500 had traded nearly +0.5% higher early on Friday before the University of Michigan survey but then gave up those gains, finally closing the day +0.16% higher. It finished the week up +1.85% in its third consecutive week of gains, the longest winning streak for the index since February. The NASDAQ followed suit, rising +1.14% last week (-0.03% on Friday).

Moreover, global equities were also on the stronger side, as the STOXX 600 gained +3.01% (and +0.77% on Friday). The UK FTSE 100 hit another record high last week, supported by a strong beat to the UK GDP data for Q1 which rose +0.6% quarter-on-quarter (vs +0.4% expected). This saw the FTSE 100 gain +2.68% (and +0.63% on Friday).

Finally, in commodities, oil prices lost ground on Friday, with Brent crude down -1.30% (-0.20% on the week) to $82.79/bbl, its lowest level in nearly two months. By contrast, gold was up +1.32% on Friday (+2.55% over the week) to $2,361/oz, its highest level in three weeks.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 08:03

Trump Vows To Undo Biden's Pro-Transgender Rules On 'Day One' Of His Administration

Trump Vows To Undo Biden's Pro-Transgender Rules On 'Day One' Of His Administration

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former President Donald Trump has vowed to reverse the Biden administration’s expansion of Title IX protections for transgender students on “day one” of his administration—if he wins the election in November.

Former President Donald Trump, with attorney Todd Blanche (R), speaks to the press as he arrives for his criminal trial for allegedly covering up hush money payments at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City on May 10, 2024. (Curtis Means-Pool/Getty Images)

President Joe Biden has set a pro-transgender course for his administration, advancing various policies that promote gender ideology and special protections for individuals who identify as something different from their birth sex.

In a move that sparked widespread controversy and a bevy of lawsuits, the Department of Education (DOE) expanded the decades-old Title IX law that prohibits sex discrimination in schools to now include sexual orientation and “gender identity.” The changes, which stop short of prohibiting schools from banning female-identifying male athletes from competing against females, are slated to go into effect on Aug. 1.

President Trump, who earlier waded into the transgender debate by pledging to punish doctors who provide so-called “gender-affirming” care to children, on Friday promised to undo the Biden administration’s Title IX changes.

“We’re gonna end it on day one,” President Trump said during a May 10 appearance on a conservative talk radio show in Philadelphia. “Don’t forget, that was done as an order from the president. That came down as an executive order. And we’re gonna change it—on day one it’s gonna be changed.”

Generally, each administration has taken a different approach to the enforcement of Title IX regulations, which educational institutions must abide by to receive federal funding. President Biden’s executive order, signed on March 8, 2021, formally tasked the Education Department with changing Title IX in a way that includes protections for an educational environment free of “discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation and gender identity.”

The changes give female-identifying males the right to use female restrooms and locker rooms, and to join female-only organizations, while construing “harassment” as including the use of pronouns that conform to one’s biological sex rather than one’s chosen gender identity.

President Biden’s move sparked a torrent of conservative backlash, with over a dozen Republican-led states suing the administration and advising schools to ignore the transgender provisions of the new rules.

During his appearance on the talk show, President Trump said that conservatives concerned about the implications of the Title IX changes on women’s spaces, safety, and privacy, need not worry.

“It‘ll be signed on day one,” he said of an executive order that would roll back the Title IX transgender provisions. “It’ll be terminated.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Transgender Agenda in Focus

Transgenderism has become a prominent issue in America’s social and political landscape in recent years, with those on the left tending to support “gender-affirming care” laws that in some cases block parents from having a say in their children’s decisions to get gender-change surgeries and other risky medical procedures.

Conservatives, by contrast, have backed laws that give parents more authority to prevent their children from undergoing transgender procedures or impose penalties on doctors who perform them without parental consent.

Nearly half of America’s states have passed legislation banning medical sex-change procedures for minors, according to data compiled by Movement Advance Project.

While some advocates of “gender-affirming” therapies and surgeries claim that they can help people suffering from gender dysphoria, there is little evidence for this.

A national organization of pediatricians recently put out a policy statement saying that gender-transition procedures such as puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones provide no mental health benefit to youth with gender dysphoria.

“There are no long-term studies demonstrating benefits nor studies evaluating risks associated with the medical and surgical interventions” provided to adolescents with gender dysphoria, the American College of Pediatricians said in a Feb. 7 statement.

The group prepared the statement after reviewing more than 60 studies.

“There is no long-term evidence that mental health concerns are decreased or alleviated after ‘gender-affirming therapy,’” they wrote.

Many individuals who have undergone it “later regret those interventions and seek to align their gender identity with their sex,” they said.

“Because of the risks of social, medical, and surgical interventions, many European countries are now cautioning against these interventions while encouraging mental health therapy,” the group added.

A 2020 report from Finland raised concerns about the possibility that puberty blocker use “alters the course of gender identity development” and “may consolidate a gender identity that would have otherwise changed in some of the treated adolescents.”

A May 2022 report from the Florida Agency for Health Care Administration stated that there were no studies comparing outcomes between those using puberty blockers and those not using puberty blockers among individuals with gender dysphoria.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 07:20

Orange Juice Prices Primed For Breakout After Forecast Warns Brazil Set For Worst Harvest In Decades 

Orange Juice Prices Primed For Breakout After Forecast Warns Brazil Set For Worst Harvest In Decades 

Breakfast lovers are in for another jolt as orange juice prices surge to near-record levels. A new report released on Friday indicates that Brazil, the leading global exporter of OJ, is facing its worst harvest in over three decades. This alarming development compounds existing issues in Florida's citrus groves, which have been plagued by disease and are experiencing collapsing production levels to the lowest in decades. 

Fundecitrus wrote in a note that Brazil will produce 232.4 million boxes—each weighing about 90 pounds—for the growing season this year. That's a 24% collapse from a year earlier and the lowest production levels in 36 years.

"Excessive heat brought stress to orange trees during a crucial period of flowering and early fruit formation between September and November last year. Further hurting output is an increase in citrus greening, a disease that causes fruit to prematurely drop from trees," Bloomberg wrote, commenting on the report. 

The report sparked additional fears about a worsening global OJ shortage. 

In markets, prices of concentrated OJ futures in New York surged as much as 5% on Friday, closing up about 3% to $394 and only 8% off the record high of $425. 

Sliding production in Brazil could soon impact US retail prices at the supermarket, considering Florida has yet to stage a significant comeback in production.

In the last year, the US has ramped up imports of OJ from Brazil to mitigate losses in Florida. 

Don't worry. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has everything under control on the food inflation front, as the prices of OJ, coffee, eggs, and cocoa have hyperinflated. 

Watch OJ futs in NY into the new week. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 06:55

Who Are We Protecting, And From What?

Who Are We Protecting, And From What?

Authored by Omid Malekan via Medium.com,

Gambling is increasingly legal in the US: Casinos, sports betting, the lottery, and so on. The economic benefits of most forms of gambling are limited. There is some job creation and collection of additional taxes, but these benefits come at the expense of players.

Put differently: Casinos are highly profitable and the lottery helps fund the government because players are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Incentives are misaligned.

Like gambling, investing in startups and “alternatives” like venture capital or hedge funds is also risky. But unlike gambling, this type of risk is economically productive. It provides capital to entrepreneurs and liquidity to markets.

A big part of America’s economic success is our ability to finance startups and our efficient capital markets, often described as “the envy of the world.”

Just as importantly, the incentives from this kind of risk taking are aligned. If a startup founder makes money, so do his investors. If a VC fund manager collects carry, it’s because she made her LPs a profit.

Except for certain age restrictions, gambling in the U.S. is open to the general public. There are no tests for the “sophistication” of a blackjack player or the annual income of a sports bettor.

The most popular form of gambling is the lottery. It has the worst odds because it is a government monopoly. It’s popular because it is heavily marketed, particularly to poor people. That’s why economists call it a regressive tax.

Except for certain hard to satisfy (and economically unfeasible) exemptions, investing in startups or alternative investments is restricted to the wealthy. Accredited investor laws require startup founders and fund managers to only accept money from so-called “sophisticated” investors.

But they don’t require prospective investors to take a test or demonstrate experience, they simply ask how rich they are. Accredited investor laws are based on the classist assumption that rich people are smart and poor people are stupid.

Never mind the history of Enron, Lehman, Madoff, SVB, and every other major collapse in recent memory, all of which featured one group of affluent people interacting with others.

The U.S. government assumes that a billionaire boomer who inherited all his wealth is more “sophisticated” when investing in AI startups than a 23 year old with a degree in machine learning.

That same government has no problem with the 24 year old blowing all his money on fantasy football or the Powerball. There’s now even a lotto app.

Less than 20% of Americans can qualify as accredited investors, but over 60% of Americans have gambled in the past year.

Wealth disparity has grown significantly in the past 20 years, in part because investments have outperformed income. Put differently: those who derive their wealth from their assets have outperformed those who do so from their labor.

Within the investment landscape, so-called “private markets” have outperformed public ones, in part because different government regulations like Sarbanes Oxley incentivized successful startups like Facebook (which 80% of people couldn’t invest in at the outset) to go public later than their predecessors.

This phenomenon was aided by the growth of venture capital and growth equity funds (which 80% of people can’t become LPs for) and the rise of secondary trading platforms for private shares (which only 20% of people can use).

Given the demographic breakdown of wealth in America — now skewing in favor of older people — this phenomenon also has an intergenerational component.

Like most demographic trends, the rise of economic inequality has many contributing factors. But government policy clearly plays a role.

The U.S. government wants ordinary (and younger) Americans to do risky things that are guaranteed to lose money while simultaneously barring them from doing risky things that may generate a positive return.

This is not an accident. Everything that I’ve argued here is easy to verify and regularly discussed in policy circles. That makes it a deliberate choice.

Ironically, the one exception to this phenomenon has been crypto, at least until recently. Coins like Bitcoin and Ether are the only risk assets that were available to the general public and outperformed over the past decade.

Their orthogonal arrival, technical complexity, and niche communities made them a far more likely investment for a smart 24 year old than a billionaire boomer. Their decentralized nature also meant that access was generally ungated.

The data shows that younger people — who own disproportionately less equity and real estate — own disproportionately more crypto. The same goes for minorities like blacks.

The U.S. government is now trying to put an end to all of this. Agencies like the Securities and Exchange Commission, which is led by a 66-year old centi-millionaire, are trying to force crypto into the same accredited investor laws that held back a generation.

Mr. Gensler made most of his wealth becoming a partner at Goldman Sachs at a time when it was a private company. He’s the prototypical winner of the status quo.

Today, thanks to the SEC’s crackdown, virtually all crypto projects either restrict early investments to accredited investors or exclude Americans altogether.

Some don’t even let American’s collect airdrops, free money that could make a major difference in the financial life of a young American who is sophisticated enough to deposit Lido staked ETH into EingenLayer, but not Sophisticated enough to be rich.

This too is by design.

America’s current disposition towards gambling, investing, and crypto is a socioeconomic disaster. It’s bad economic policy and deeply immoral.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 06:30

'Unusually Aggressive' Anti-Trump Grand Jury In Arizona Went Rogue With Indictments

'Unusually Aggressive' Anti-Trump Grand Jury In Arizona Went Rogue With Indictments

The Arizona grand jury that recently indicted 18 people for allegedly trying to help former President Donald Trump overturn the results of the 2020 election with so-called 'fake electors' went completely rogue and took 'aggressive steps to haul in witnesses,' to the point where they 'even brought charges against some' who were told by prosecutors that they weren't under investigation, Politico reports.

Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes (D)

Their efforts ultimately resulted in a 58-page indictment which has ensnared various national and state Republicans - including one of Trump's current top advisers, and several individuals who were previously in his orbit - with felony charges. Trump himself was listed as an unindicted co-conspirator.

Documents reviewed by POLITICO reveal that at least two of the 18 people charged — former Trump lawyers Jenna Ellis and Christina Bobb — were assured by prosecutors that they were not targets of the probe, only to learn that the grand jury indicted them anyway. In fact, a letter that a prosecutor sent to Ellis just days before the indictment appeared to significantly understate her legal jeopardy.

One witness who testified before the grand jury said a faction of the panel drove intense questioning that exceeded the limited scope that prosecutors had publicly acknowledged. The probe was led by the office of Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes. -Politico

Mayes, a Democrat who replaced a Republican in January 2023, has been accused of politically motivated lawfare - however Politico's sources say that the grand jury was 'surprisingly independent' of her prosecutors - and 'sometimes even hard for them to predict.'

"The State Grand Jury was given leeway to conduct an independent investigation, as it is entitled to do by law," said Mayes' spox, Richie Taylor. "I cannot confirm or deny the specifics of grand jury proceedings, and I will note that the investigation remains open and ongoing. I will have to decline to comment further."

Grand juries are empowered to conduct their own lines of questioning in order to reach conclusions which may not necessarily align with the wishes of prosecutors - though they typically defer.

That said, in high-profile cases, they've been known to take on more independence.

"Every high-profile case that I’ve ever had, which is cases that have necessarily attendant publicity, or a public corruption case, or anything else, grand jurors become interested," according to former Arizona prosecutor, Paul Charlton.

Ultimately, the Arizona grand jury investigating the 2020 election indicted former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, lawyers Rudy Giuliani and John Eastman, and close Trump adviser Boris Epshteyn. It also indicted the 11 Arizona Republicans who falsely claimed to be the state’s rightful presidential electors.

Arizona is the fourth state — after Georgia, Michigan and Nevada — to bring criminal charges stemming from the efforts of Trump and his allies to overturn the 2020 results in states that Biden won. At the federal level, special counsel Jack Smith has also charged Trump himself for the scheme. -Politico

"Not a target" (just kidding!)

Several months after former Trump attorney Jenna Ellis pleaded guilty in Georgia to helping Trump overturn the 2020 election, Mayes' prosecutors had questions - and asked her to appear for a so-called "free talk" interview.

"Ms. Ellis is not a target of the State’s investigation," a prosecutor in Mayes' office wrote to Ellis' attorney on Feb. 20, outlining terms for the interview.

On April 19, the same prosecutor followed up with another letter along the same lines - reiterating that Ellis was not a target.

The interview never happened, and Ellis was indicted anyway by the grand jury.

According to Phoenix criminal attorney Omer Gurion, this is unheard of.

"I have never seen anything like that in any Arizona criminal case that I can think of," he said. "Not one," adding that for a person to go from a "free talk" interview offer to indicted in just four days is "pretty unusual."

Former prosecutor Renato Mariotti agrees, telling Politico: "It’s bad form, and something I would never do as a prosecutor," adding "That said, I’ve practiced criminal law across this country and gone up against prosecutors of all stripes, and I’ve learned there are many prosecutors who do things I would not do."

"A Level Of Aggression That Caught Me Off Guard"

One of the witnesses interviewed by the grand jury told Politico that there was a serious difference between the tone set by prosecutors, and the grand jury. The witness, who received immunity, was told to expect around an hour of questioning over the boilerplate details of the probe.

Instead, he got a three-hour grilling that was 'sometimes pointed and accusatory.'

It was "a level of aggression that caught me off guard," said the witness -adding that one juror "seemed to be the leader of the ‘indict them all crowd’ and asked ‘pointed but specific questions.’"

Another juror, who made no effort to hide his political bias, asked "more high-level questions" such as "How could you even talk to these people? What were you thinking?"

Other jurors took a softer tone.

Another smaller faction of grand jurors consistently reframed the questions of the more aggressive jurors and seemed to be more skeptical of the angle they were taking, the witness recalled, noting that this group was visibly “rolling their eyes, heavy sighing, shifting uncomfortably.”

One grand juror also wanted to know what the witness could possibly have been thinking in the weeks after Trump’s defeat. The witness wasn’t a target but left the room surprised by the tenor of the grand jury’s questions and feeling like a “punching bag.”

And after the grilling was over, the witness said, a prosecutor offered a sheepish apology for its unexpected intensity. -Politico

According to the report, witnesses who plead the 5th are generally excused from appearing, but in this case, grand jurors insisted they appear in person to do so.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/13/2024 - 05:45

CFTC Aims To Ban Derivatives Based On Elections, Athletic Competitions And Awards Contests

CFTC Aims To Ban Derivatives Based On Elections, Athletic Competitions And Awards Contests

Previously enjoyed betting on the outcome of an event, like a Presidential election? The CFTC wants to make sure that doesn't happen again.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the regulator is now targeting "derivatives contracts based on political elections, athletic competitions and awards contests" to try and draw more prominent lines between investing and gambling. 

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission proposed a regulation to oversee event contracts, a rapidly growing market where investors bet on event outcomes, the report said. 

The proposed regulation won’t affect sports betting through traditional sportsbooks regulated by state commissions or popular online platforms like DraftKings. Nor will it impact offshore platforms like Betfair, which currently allows U.S. election bets.

The proposal, approved 3-2 along party lines, will undergo public review before a final vote in the coming months. Democratic commissioners emphasized the potential threat to election integrity posed by political event contracts, particularly with a Biden-Trump rematch looming.

Christy Goldsmith Romero, a Democratic commissioner, said: “Never before has the sanctity of elections been so critical or so under threat. The CFTC should not allow products in our markets with an unacceptable risk of unchecked abuse and manipulation that could threaten the sanctity of elections, thereby threatening democracy and national security.”

Yet the proposal was called “grossly overbroad” by Summer Mersinger, a Republican commissioner, the report noted. 

One company that offers "yes" or "no" betting questions has been Kalshi. Event contracts, though small compared to stocks or futures, have grown rapidly since Kalshi launched in 2021. Recent Kalshi contracts included wagers on whether "Oppenheimer" would win Best Picture and if Columbia University's president would be ousted. 

CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam, a Democrat supporting the proposal, noted that more event contracts were listed in 2021 than in the previous 15 years combined. 

The CFTC has previously blocked U.S. trading platforms from launching political betting markets. Last year, it prevented Kalshi from offering contracts based on which party controls Congress, prompting Kalshi to sue the agency in November over the rejection.

“We look forward to continuing to engage with our regulators and Congress, as we have always done, to ensure that our customers can participate in legitimate trading with legitimate use cases on a legitimate, regulated exchange and not on offshore and illegal markets where there is no customer protection or market integrity,”  Mansour told WSJ. 

CFTC regulations established after the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act prohibit event contracts involving terrorism, assassination, war, gaming, or illegal activities, but the lack of a clear definition of “gaming” led to disputes over whether it applies to sports and political contracts, prompting Friday's proposal to explicitly ban wagers on elections, sports, or awards contests.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/12/2024 - 23:00

The New York Times Denounces Cancel Culture... After Fueling Cancel Culture For Years

The New York Times Denounces Cancel Culture... After Fueling Cancel Culture For Years

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

For those of us who have criticized the cancel culture in higher education for years, the attacks and shunning have been unrelenting. The media has played a role in that culture and none more prominently than the New York Times. Recently, however, the mob came for liberal professors and media who have remained silent for years as conservatives and others were targeted on campus.

Suddenly, there is a new interest in free speech and academic freedom, including by the Times editors who blamed cancel culture for the recent demonstrations and disruptions on campus.

Until good liberals were targeted on campus, cancel culture was treated as free speech. It did not matter that preventing others from speaking or being heard is the very antithesis of free speech.

The New York Times reached true infamy in the controversy over publishing Sen. Tom Cotton’s (R., Ark.) op-ed where he argued for the possible use of national guard to quell violent riots around the White House.

It was one of the lowest points in the history of modern American journalism. Cotton was calling for the use of the troops to restore order in Washington after days of rioting around the White House.  While Congress would “call in the troops” six months later to quell the rioting at the Capitol on January 6th, New York Times reporters and columnists called the column historically inaccurate and politically inciteful.

Reporters insisted that Cotton was even endangering them by suggesting the use of troops and insisted that the newspaper cannot feature people who advocate political violence. One year later, the New York Times published a column by an academic who had previously declared that there is nothing wrong with murdering conservatives and Republicans.

Later, former editors came forward to denounce the cancel culture at the Times and the censorship of opposing views.

At the same time, the Times has embraced “advocacy journalism.” Former New York Times writer (and now Howard University Journalism Professor) Nikole Hannah-Jones is a leading voice for advocacy journalism. Indeed, Hannah-Jones has declared “all journalism is activism.”

Now, however, liberal professors and writers are being targeted. After years of turning a blind eye to conservative and libertarian figures being purged from faculties or canceled in events, the Times is alarmed that

…students and other demonstrators disrupting college campuses this spring are being taught the wrong lesson — for as admirable as it can be to stand up for your beliefs, there are no guarantees that doing so will be without consequence.

What is most striking is how the editors chastise administrators for lacking the courage that they have not shown for years in standing up to their cultural warriors:

For several years, many university leaders have failed to act as their students and faculty have shown ever greater readiness to block an expanding range of views that they deem wrong or beyond the pale. Some scholars report that this has had a chilling effect on their work, making them less willing to participate in the academy or in the wider world of public discourse. The price of pushing boundaries, particularly with more conservative ideas, has become higher and higher…

It has not gone unnoticed — on campuses but also by members of Congress and by the public writ large — that many of those who are now demanding the right to protest have previously sought to curtail the speech of those whom they declared hateful.

It is certainly good to see the “Old Gray Lady” have second thoughts about cancel culture. However, she might want to look inwardly before casting more cultural stones.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/12/2024 - 22:30

Coffee Is Anti-Aging, Linked To Prevention Of Dementia And Sarcopenia: Study

Coffee Is Anti-Aging, Linked To Prevention Of Dementia And Sarcopenia: Study

Authored by Ellen Wan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Enjoying a cup of joe can offer more than just a pick-me-up: It has been shown to have numerous health benefits, especially for older people. Research has found that the natural molecule in coffee, trigonelline, can help improve sarcopenia (age-related muscle loss) and maintain muscle function during aging.

(portumen/Shutterstock)

Muscle mass and function gradually decline as we age, potentially leading to sarcopenia. This can hinder mobility and even result in dependence and disability. The hallmarks of sarcopenia include a decline in nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+) levels and mitochondrial dysfunction.

Recent Research

A study published in Nature Metabolism in March found that trigonelline is a precursor to NAD+. Increasing the therapeutic dose of trigonelline can raise the levels of NAD+ in the cells of sarcopenia patients. Supplementing trigonelline also enhanced mitochondrial activity, NAD+ levels, and muscle function in aged mice. Furthermore, long-term supplementation of trigonelline significantly increased grip strength in the forelimbs of aged mice.

However, the study also pointed out that sarcopenia is a multifactorial disease, and trigonelline cannot reverse all its causes. It must be combined with other nutrients that help maintain muscle, such as protein, vitamin D, or omega-3 fatty acids.

Nutrition and physical activity are important for older people to maintain healthy muscles. Assistant professor Vincenzo Sorrentino from the Health Longevity Translational Research Program at the National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, who participated in the study, stated in a press release that this research on trigonelline has increased the potential for achieving healthy longevity and addressing age-related diseases.

Trigonelline is found in plant-based foods such as coffee beans and fenugreek seeds.

A study involving 1,781 older Korean men indicated that coffee consumption was associated with a reduced risk of sarcopenia. Compared to those who drank less than one cup of coffee per day, individuals who drank at least three cups of coffee per day had a significantly lower probability of developing sarcopenia. However, the risk reduction was less pronounced among those who consumed one or two cups of coffee daily.

Understanding the Benefits and Drawbacks of Coffee Consumption

Many people drink coffee without considering its health benefits or risks. However, debates about coffee have been ongoing for a long time.

Coffee is a complex mixture containing approximately 1,000 chemicals. Human reactions to coffee or caffeine vary, and the effects can vary significantly depending on the amount consumed.

One study found that drinking three to five cups of coffee per day in midlife was associated with a 65 percent lower risk of developing dementia or Alzheimer’s disease in old age. Another study found that compared to light coffee drinkers (one to two cups per day), heavy coffee drinkers (more than six cups per day), non-coffee drinkers, and those who drank decaffeinated coffee had higher odds of developing dementia.

A study published in The New England Journal of Medicine in 2020 showed that consuming three to five cups of coffee daily was associated with a reduced risk of several chronic diseases. However, considering that excessive caffeine intake may have some adverse effects, it is recommended that adults who are not pregnant or breastfeeding limit their daily caffeine intake to 400 milligrams, while pregnant and breastfeeding women should limit their daily caffeine intake to 200 milligrams. Additionally, research has found that very high caffeine intake (more than 1,000 milligrams per week) is a risk factor for anxiety and depression.

Due to the differences in coffee bean varieties and extraction methods, the caffeine content can vary significantly. Therefore, when consuming coffee daily, checking the actual caffeine content listed on the product packaging is recommended.

It is also important to note that many commercially available coffees are often mixed with heavy cream and flavored syrups, which can add extra calories, sugar, and saturated fat, diminishing the health benefits of black coffee.

Iced Pumpkin Spice Latte

Johns Hopkins Medicine shared an easy-to-make and healthy coffee recipe on its website:

Ingredients:

  • 1 cup brewed coffee
  • ½ cup canned plain pumpkin
  • ½ cup milk
  • 2 teaspoons pumpkin pie spice (or ½ teaspoon each of cinnamon, ginger, nutmeg, and allspice)
  • 1 teaspoon vanilla extract
  • 4 ice cubes

Preparation: Blend all ingredients for a seasonally-inspired beverage. Adding pumpkin helps increase fiber intake, which is beneficial for gut health.

Note: It is advisable to use as little sugar as possible. If you must add a sweetener, consider using a small amount of pure maple syrup.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/12/2024 - 21:30

Seattle Could Shutter 20 Elementary Schools Due To Budget Constraints

Seattle Could Shutter 20 Elementary Schools Due To Budget Constraints

When happens when your city pisses away all of your tax revenue on trying to feed, shelter and coddle activists and homeless people? You wind up having to make budget cuts. And, in Seattle, those cuts could be coming in the form of closing up to 20 elementary schools. 

The district’s budget deficit has reached more than $100 million, according to new reporting from MYNorthwest. 

And Superintendent Brent Jones' proposal for 'Well-Resourced Schools' might lead to the shutdown of over a quarter of the district's 73 elementary schools, the report says. 

According to the Seattle Public Schools, 29 of these schools have fewer than 300 students each, and are considered under-enrolled. The district warns that keeping these schools open may necessitate cuts or the elimination of preschool programs, a reduction in core staff, larger class sizes, and fewer curriculum offerings.

The plan has been met with considerable opposition from both parents and teachers, who expressed their concerns at Wednesday's meeting.

Ben Gitenstein, a parent of a student in the SPS district commented: “It’s not 20 schools, it’s 20 communities. All the kids who thought they knew who their next year’s teacher would be. All the local mom-and-pop stores that sell ice cream to the kids after school, they’re all going to be seriously impacted."

He continued: “Closing neighborhood schools is really bad for neighborhoods and it’s really bad for all of us because, at the end of the day, the real problem here is enrollment."

Superintendent Brent Jones commented: “We’re trying to make sure we’re focused on the students’ experience and not just a building.”

The report concluded stating that, at the meeting, Jones reflected on his own experiences as a student within SPS, noting that he attended four different elementary schools. He described each transition as a positive experience.

School closures, under his plan, would not take place until the 2025-2026 school year at the earliest. He is scheduled to present an initial recommendation at a school board meeting on June 10.

Good luck with that.

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/12/2024 - 21:00

Newsom Forced To Slash California Budget, Blames Crippling Deficit On "Rain Bombs" And Tax Shortfalls

Newsom Forced To Slash California Budget, Blames Crippling Deficit On "Rain Bombs" And Tax Shortfalls

In the course of two years, California has turned a $100 billion surplus into a $73 billion deficit, forcing governor Gavin Newson (D) to propose painful (token) spending cuts on Friday while announcing his revised state budget.

California Governor Gavin Newsom unveils revised 2024-25 state budget on Friday, May 10 (photo: AP, Rich Pedroncelli)

When asked how the state was able to achieve such a monumental fail, Newsom - who claims the deficit is actually $27.6 billion (to which even AP called him out) - blamed a reduction in taxes from capital gains income, which surged in 2021 amid a raging stock market and plummeted in 2022. Then, in 2023, the state 'continued to collect less tax revenue than projected' due to capital loss carryovers. He also blamed "unexpected rain bombs" - which caused the IRS to extend the tax filing deadline for most California taxpayers in 2023 following severe winter storms. When those taxes were eventually collected, they were 22% below expectations, according to the Governor's office.

Watch:

According to AP, Newsom will cut $6.7 billion set aside for doctors who treat Medicaid patients, cut off healthcare to 14,000 disabled migrants in their home, saving $94.7 million, and slashed $550 million that was headed towards state schools in order to build new facilities.

Republican State Senator Brian Dahle called the cuts a "hollow gesture, at best," adding "The governor's national ambitions have triggered a massive exodus of people and businesses creating an enormous revenue shortfall of personal and corporate income taxes."

"You can't have a good government without a strong private sector. Plain and simple, people are being priced out of California from bad policies and mismanagement," Dahle continued.

In total, Newsom is proposing $32.8 billion in cuts over two years - including an 8% cut to state operations, which he says will shore things up.

Of course, we know that's bullshit.

Refreshing your memory from early April, Mike Shedlock gave a sobering view into reality;

*  *  *

The City Journal founder Ed Ring comments on the Golden State Budget Fantasy

While finalizing the upcoming fiscal year’s state budget back in May 2022, California governor Gavin Newsom boasted of an extraordinary projected surplus: $97 billion. The governor immediately collaborated with an enthusiastic state legislature to spend it all. Of course, new spending on new programs and benefits tends to become permanent.

This has happened repeatedly in California. Between fiscal year 2012–13 and fiscal year 2022–23 (the year with the projected $97 billion surplus), per capita general-fund spending doubled, from just over $3,000 per resident to just under $6,000. (All figures are in 2022 inflation-adjusted dollars.)

The State Office of Legislative Analyst’s latest report projects a $73 billion dollar deficit for the next fiscal year. It won’t be easy to paper over this debt, but the state may use its opaque accounting system to hide the ball.

California’s general-fund budgets are reported on a cash basis. The state’s balance sheet, however, uses “accrual-based accounting.” Without getting too far into the weeds, this is an apples v. oranges situation. Instead of the algebraic perfection of private-sector income statements, balance sheets, and cash flows, government accounting provides no easy way to reconcile what you see on the budget.

Some watchdogs, however, have succeeded in cracking the code. John Moorlach, one of the only certified public accountants to serve in the California State Senate, just published a review of the state’s fiscal health, focusing on the balance sheet. According to Moorlach, California’s balance sheet is in trouble.

Moorlach declared in a March California Insider interview that the state “now has the largest unrestricted net deficit in the US: $222 Billion.” In plain English, Moorlach is saying that California’s state government accounts have liabilities that exceed assets by $222 billion. No matter how creative Newsom and his financial wizards may be, someday that money will have to be paid.

A remedy that California has turned to over the years and will undoubtedly turn to now is to accumulate additional long-term debt. Emulating the federal government, but lacking its dollar-printing ability, California’s state and local governments and agencies have racked up over a trillion dollars in debt, primarily in bonds and unfunded pension liabilities. These liabilities, too, must be paid. Since that’s all but impossible, the liabilities must be serviced with payments that, just as at the federal level, will eat up more and more of the operating budgets.

How Much Is California in Debt?

The above link says over a trillion. That’s being very generous to California. Click on it to discover … California State and Local Liabilities exceed $1.6 Trillion.

California’s total state and local government debt now stands at almost $1.6 trillion, or about half the state’s GDP.

That isn’t an alarming ratio when compared to the national debt, which has now soared to 128 percent of U.S. GDP with no end in sight. But Californians carry this $1.6 trillion state and local debt ($40,000 per capita) in addition to their share of the national debt (about $90,000 per capita).

That article was from February of 2022. I suspect the liabilities are now close to $2 trillion.

Cost of Running a McDonalds Jumps $250,000 in CA

On February 4, I noted the Cost of Running a McDonalds Jumps $250,000 in CA Due to Minimum Wage Hikes.

A blowback is underway.

California Restaurants Cut Jobs

On March 26, I commented California Restaurants Cut Jobs as Fast-Food Wages Set to Rise

Proposition 103 Backfires

Citing wildfire risk, State Farm will not renew policies on 30,000 homes and 42,000 business in California.

Also on March 26, I commented Proposition 103 Backfires, State Farm to Cancel 72,000 California Policies

Blame the state, not insurers.

Congratulations to NY, IL, LA, and CA for Losing the Most Population

People in California, increasingly getting sick of the state’s progressive madness, are voting with their feet.

For discussion, please see Congratulations to NY, IL, LA, and CA for Losing the Most Population

Absolute Basis Losers

  • New York: -631,104

  • California: -573,019

  • Illinois: -263,780

California Leads the Nation in Unemployment

The BLS metro shows unemployment rates were up in 218 of 389 metro areas. Nonfarm employment only rose in 59 areas.

On March 15, I noted Unemployment Rates Rose in 218 of the 389 Metropolitan Areas

Unsurprisingly, California has the highest unemployment rate in the nation at 5.7 percent vs. 4.1 percent nationally.

A Booming Economy?

California has massive problems although the stock market is at a record high and the economy is allegedly booming. The next recession will hit California exceptionally hard, and it’s not too far off. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 05/12/2024 - 20:00

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