Individual Economists

Billionaire, Harvard Donor Ken Griffin Says Protesters Are Byproduct Of "Failed Education System" 

Zero Hedge -

Billionaire, Harvard Donor Ken Griffin Says Protesters Are Byproduct Of "Failed Education System" 

Ken Griffin, the founder of Citadel and a Harvard University alumnus, was interviewed Monday evening at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills.

During the interview, Griffin blasted protesters at woke elite colleges and universities, calling them a byproduct of a "failed education system." He also touched on macroeconomics, including his prediction that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December.

Let's begin with Griffin's thoughts on Harvard:

"The only thing I can say about Harvard is we look much better given what we see at Columbia."

"I scratch my head — the audacity. The students seize one of the halls, commit acts of vandalism and — and I love this — and then try to negotiate for humanitarian aid."

Griffin, who, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, is worth more than $37 billion, pointed out that these protesters are byproducts of a "failed education system."

The billionaire isn't wrong. Woke elite schools have moved away from actually teaching to instead offering indoctrination camps to brainwash the nation's youth with variants of the Marxist religion.

Griffin recently donated a $300 million gift to Harvard and said he would dramatically reduce future donations until the school "recommits itself to meritocracy in a very public and profound way." Months ago, he accused the woke colleges of producing a generation of "whiny snowflakes" instead of America's future leaders.

Griffin's interview also touched on monetary policy. He believes the Fed will begin the interest rate-cutting cycle in December.

"There is still a question of will inflation actually decelerate enough by then," he said, noting that wage growth and de-globalization "take away from the constant deflationary trend that has helped the pricing of goods for frankly most of our adult lifetime."

In a separate interview on Monday with CNBC, Griffin said the Fed is likely keeping interest rates higher for longer, and he called that the "right choice" as inflation reignites and economic growth slows, producing stagflation fears.

The market is pricing in a first cut in September (more dovish than Griffin)

...and a 56% chance of a second cut in December (conditioned on the first September cut).

Will Powell really start cutting so close to the election?

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 11:25

More People Watch Video Of Fireplace Than Don Lemon's Live-Stream

Zero Hedge -

More People Watch Video Of Fireplace Than Don Lemon's Live-Stream

Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,

Former CNN host Don Lemon’s new show isn’t going too well since his fall out with Elon Musk, with X users noting that more people watched a video of a fireplace than his live stream.

Lemon signed an agreement to have his show featured on X earlier this year, a deal that enabled him to secure an exclusive interview with Musk.

However, instead of representing a fresh new direction, the show was just a tired rehash of Lemon’s old CNN gig in which he attempted to shame the Tesla founder for allowing “hate speech” on his platform.

When Musk responded by ending the agreement, Lemon immediately ran back to CNN to ludicrously declare his free speech had been silenced and brag that his show would now be on YouTube.

But things aren’t going too well for him there.

“There are more people watching a fake fireplace than Don Lemon’s livestream,” noted one X user, posting a screenshot showing more people watching the ‘cozy fireplace’ stream than Lemon’s own show.

Indeed, a quick perusal of his YouTube channel shows that despite being helped by the algorithm in some cases, most of his shows struggle to get more than 20,000 views, which some even languishing at around the 2-3,000 level.

Respondents on X enjoyed his battle with the fireplace for viewership.

As we previously highlighted, Lemon’s arrogance surrounding the supposed value of his content was so out of control, he demanded a free Tesla Cyber Truck, $5 million up front, and asked Elon Musk to make him the first person to do a podcast in space.

The New York Post reported that in addition to his $8 million salary and $5 million upfront, Lemon wanted an equity stake in X and veto power over any changes in X policy as it relates to news content.

He actually ended up with a lame podcast that barely anyone is interested in watching.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 11:05

AAR: Rail Carloads Down YoY in April, Intermodal Up

Calculated Risk -

From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) Rail Time Indicators. Graphs and excerpts reprinted with permission.
Total originated U.S. carloads averaged 212,221 per week in April 2024, down 6.5% from April 2023 and the second lowest weekly average for April in our records that go back to 1988. (April 2020 was lower.) Total carloads fell year over year each of the first four months of 2024. Year-to-date total carloads through April were down 4.8% and, at 3.62 million, were the lowest for any year in our records.

The main reason is coal. ...

U.S. railroads also originated 1.02 million intermodal containers and trailers in April 2024, up 8.6% over April 2023 — intermodal’s eighth straight year-over-year gain. (Intermodal is not included in carloads.)
emphasis added
Rail Traffic Click on graph for larger image.

This graph from the Rail Time Indicators report shows the six-week average of U.S. Carloads in 2022, 2023 and 2024:
Total originated U.S. carloads in April 2024 were 848,882, down 6.5% (58,751 carloads) from April 2023. The weekly average in April 2024 was 212,221 carloads per week, the second lowest for April in our records that go back to 1988. (April 2020, when the pandemic was just starting, was lower.) Year-to-date total carloads through April were 3.62 million, down 4.8% (180,839 carloads) from last year. Total carloads fell year-over-year each of the first four months of 2024.

It’s a broken record at this point, but blame coal. In April 2024, coal averaged 46,303 carloads per week, down 28.0% from April 2023 — the fourth straight double-digit percentage decline.
Rail TrafficThe second graph shows the six-week average (not monthly) of U.S. intermodal in 2022, 2023 and 2024: (using intermodal or shipping containers):
U.S. railroads originated 1.02 million intermodal containers and trailers in April 2024, up 8.6% (80,471 units) over April 2023 — intermodal’s eighth straight gain. In April 2024, intermodal averaged 254,642 units per week. April’s average from 2015 to 2023 was 257,701, slightly higher than April 2024. Last year wasn’t a good year for intermodal — it was the lowest since 2013 — and the gains this year have essentially returned intermodal volume back to normal.

Russia Ready To Alter OPEC+ Production if Necessary

Zero Hedge -

Russia Ready To Alter OPEC+ Production if Necessary

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com

The OPEC+ group is still studying whether to raise oil production but it would act on supply if necessary, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Tuesday.   

The possibility to raise supply is still being reviewed, Russia’s top oilman said, as carried by Russian news agency Interfax.

“It always depends on the current situation, the balance of supply and demand,” Novak said.

“Everything is being analyzed. Right now, you don’t need to predict anything, you just need to see how the market feels,” he said. 

Novak added that OPEC+ participants “are constantly monitoring the situation, and this is our plan for the second quarter, we agreed with our colleagues that these voluntary cuts can be adjusted to boost supply if necessary.”

“This is a constant process,” Novak stressed.

The OPEC+ group is meeting on June 1 to decide how to proceed with the current production cuts in the second half of the year. The current supply agreement which removes around 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) off the market now including Saudi Arabia’s 1 million voluntary cut, expires at the end of June.

As of the end of last week, OPEC+ had yet to start formal talks on the alliance’s production policy, sources from producers part of the deal told Reuters.

If oil demand fails to accelerate, the group could keep the oil production cuts in place, the sources added.

“We think there's a good chance that OPEC+ will extend beyond June - but we aren't yet putting a firm view because we don't think they've actually got into the real period of discussion and decision-making,” Richard Bronze of consultancy Energy Aspects told Reuters.   

The majority of analysts expect OPEC+ to extend the cut into the second half of 2024, according to a survey by Bloomberg from last week.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 10:25

Disney Shares Plunge Most In Year On Subscriber Miss, Disappointing Guidance

Zero Hedge -

Disney Shares Plunge Most In Year On Subscriber Miss, Disappointing Guidance

Disney reported fiscal second-quarter profits that exceeded estimates of the average analysts tracked by Bloomberg and raised its full-year earnings guidance. However, shares tumbled in early trading in New York as investors focused more on the Disney+ streaming service, missing its forecast for the quarter. 

For the quarter ending March 30, the Disney+ streaming service reported 153.6 million subs, which fell short of Wall Street's expectations of 155.66 million. This is currently overshadowing any positive news from the quarter. 

Earnings increased to $1.21 a share, excluding some items, in the quarter, beating the $1.12 average of analysts' estimates. Revenue in the first three months of the year increased by 1.2% to $22.08 billion, compared with analysts' forecast of $22.1 billion.

  • Adjusted EPS $1.21 vs. 93c y/y, estimate $1.12 (Bloomberg Consensus)
  • Revenue $22.08 billion MEET, +1.2% y/y, estimate $22.1 billion
    • Entertainment revenue MISS $9.80 billion, estimate $10.31 billion 

    • Direct-to-Consumer revenue MEET $5.64 billion, estimate $5.64 billion

    • Sports revenue MISS $4.31 billion, estimate $4.33 billion

    • Experiences revenue BEAT $8.39 billion, estimate $8.18 billion

However, while the media giant added more than 6 million subscribers in the second quarter to its core Disney+ streaming offering, it was less than expected:

  • Disney+ subscribers 153.6 million, estimate 155.66 million

And worse still, CFO Hugh Johnston said the company doesn’t expect to see core Disney+ subscriber growth in the current quarter and profitability in streaming will suffer due to due to additional expenses for cricket rights in India.

Disney bought the India business in 2019 as part of its $71.3 billion acquisition of most of 21st Century Fox.

“We are pleased with the progress we’re making in streaming, although, as we said before, the path to long-term profitability is not a linear one,” Johnston said on a call with investors.

At the start of the cash session, Disney shares slid 8.5%. The latest rebound in the stock has hit heavy resistance at the $120 handle. 

The 8.5% decline is the largest intraday tumble since May 11, 2023.

On the bright side, Disney’s theme parks saw revenue increase 10% in the second quarter and the segment posted a 12% gain in operating income.

But, once again, Johnston said he’s expecting little growth at parks in the current period, due to expenses such as a new cruise ship, before resuming growth later in the year.

Earnings in Disney’s theme-park division rose to $2.29 billion in the second quarter, driven by sharply higher results internationally, especially Hong Kong. Domestically the company’s cruise line and Disney World resort in Florida registered income growth, while California’s Disneyland saw weaker performance due to higher costs.

“While consumers continue to travel in record numbers and we are still seeing healthy demand, we are seeing some evidence of a global moderation from peak post-Covid travel,” Johnston said on the call.

The question remains, just how much can Disney put up park prices before demand literally disappears?

While McDonald's, Starbucks, and Tyson Foods have all reported low-income consumers dialing back purchases as inflation pinches pocketbooks, the Disney CFO claimed that:

"We're not seeing that in our portfolio of products," adding there hasn't been much of an impact after streaming prices were hiked earlier this year. 

However, it's only a matter of time before Disney sees low-income or middle-of-the-road consumers pull back on streaming spending and outrageously priced park tickets amid rising stagflationary threats. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 10:05

Wholesale Used Car Prices Declined in April; Down 14.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Declined in April
Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix, mileage, and seasonally adjusted basis) were down in April compared to March. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 198.4, a decline of 14.0% from a year ago. The seasonal adjustment to the index magnified the results for the month, resulting in a 2.3% month-over-month decrease. The non-adjusted price in April decreased by 0.6% compared to March, moving the unadjusted average price down 11.9% year over year.
emphasis added
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Click on graph for larger image.

This index from Manheim Consulting is based on all completed sales transactions at Manheim’s U.S. auctions.

The Manheim index suggests used car prices declined in April (seasonally adjusted) and were down 14.0% year-over-year (YoY).

Peloton Shares Surge On Private Equity Firm Buyout Report 

Zero Hedge -

Peloton Shares Surge On Private Equity Firm Buyout Report 

Just one week after Barry McCarthy, CEO of Peloton Interactive, announced his departure following a disastrous tenure that saw shares plummet by 92%, CNBC reports private equity firms are circling the struggling company, known for strapping iPads on fancy exercise bikes and charging wealthy consumers a hefty premium, for a potential buyout.

People familiar with the talks say Peloton has spoken with at least one private equity firm. However, the firm's interest in acquiring the company is unclear. The people also say several other private equity firms have been interested in acquiring the company. 

Responding to the report, a Peloton spokesperson told CNBC, "We do not comment on speculation or rumors."

"Firms have zeroed in on how to cut Peloton's operating expenses to make a buyout more attractive," CNBC said. 

Last week, Peloton CEO Barry McCarthy announced he would step down, while the company said it would undergo another broad restructuring plan that would save it more than $200 million by the end of 2025. 

Following the report, the company's shares surged by as much as 18% in premarket trading in New York.

The news comes as Peloton's float is heavily shorted, with at least 15% short, equivalent to about 50 million shares. 

Under McCarthy's tenure, shares have plunged 92%, mainly because demand for at-home exercise bikes and treadmills has fallen since the pandemic. Consumers have returned to gyms, and or just can't afford the overpriced equipment Peloton has to offer. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 09:05

What Will CBDCs Mean For Gold?

Zero Hedge -

What Will CBDCs Mean For Gold?

Via SchiffGold.com,

With the eventual introduction of central bank digital currency (CBDCs) now seemingly inevitable, there are a lot of directions central banks could take with their digital currency projects that would have dramatic implications for the price of gold.

Touted for their “convenience” and “efficiency,” the endgame of digital currencies is not only achieving greater power over the currency but also a means of surveilling and micromanaging the personal finances of each individual. Owe taxes or a parking ticket? It could be automatically deducted. Does the Fed think it needs to cool inflation? Deduct money straight from people’s accounts, or impose a daily spending limit. The possibilities for control and profit are endless, and too tempting for control freak bureaucracies and amoral tech companies to ignore.

As countries like China implement their own CBDCs, buy more precious metals, and generally buck dependence on the US dollar for trade, Western central banks also feel like they have to compete in order to retain their power. That’s the essence of the other motivation for CBDCs — a currency race between East and West wherein the winner solidifies not only unprecedented control over its own citizenry but a place atop the global power structure for the next century or longer.

Since CBDCs and the idea of a “cashless society” are mostly about increasing centralization and control on the societal and individual level, it’s easy to see how they might be accompanied by new legislation banning precious metals investing and other non-state-approved financial activities. All they need is a severe enough financial crisis to provide the justification. After all, during the Great Depression, the federal government swiftly used an Executive Order to demand that citizens submit their gold to the Federal Reserve en masse.

And with new developments in crypto-tokenization technology and a brewing global financial crisis, the Tech-Banking-Political complex is preparing for what they collectively know will be a crucial window of opportunity to force their CBDCs down the throats of the people and make opting out from their new system after the fact nearly impossible.

Once their CBDC is rolled out, central bankers will have more ability than ever to manipulate the money supply and your personal finances according to their whims. This summary from a 2023 BIS report on the promise of CBDCs to increase the scope of central bank activities describes in (cheery banker-speak) the increase in power and control that central planners will grant themselves under a unified digital currency system:

“As well as improving existing processes through the seamless integration of transactions, a unified ledger could harness programmability to enable arrangements that are currently not practicable, thereby expanding the universe of possible economic outcomes.”

Zimbabwe’s new CBDC experiment uses an interesting ”gold-backed” approach, appearing on paper to be a combination of the traditional gold standard with digital currency tech. This is a promising approach, but to avoid being corrupted by authorities, it needs a protocol that makes it nearly impossible to fake a higher gold supply with tokens for gold that doesn’t really exist. Otherwise, its claims of returning to a “gold standard” are meaningless.

I wouldn’t expect a Western CBDC to contain gold backing or the protection of any kind of restrictive protocol, but I predict that in a centralized national or international digital currency system of any kind, central banks will still hold large amounts of gold in reserve. Just as Bitcoin isn’t truly “digital gold” but only numbers on a screen, bankers know they will still have to hold real money as an insurance policy.

The difference is, that banks could be the only ones who are allowed to hold gold, while broader society will no longer have access to cash. With all other potential options to opt out of this system fully digitized and prevented from competing with CBDCs, gold, and silver will become the only way to exist and transact outside the Central Bank’s digital control grid with any semblance of true freedom or agency. Black markets will have to turn to various forms of analog money, and gold and silver will rise as the top options.

Just look at the gold chart for 1933: When Executive Order 6102 demanded that citizens give up their gold, the price skyrocketed, never again returning to pre-1933 levels. A similar effect would occur from the announcement of CBDCs, phasing out of paper cash, and restrictions on private gold ownership:

Gold vs USD Pre and Post-Executive Order 6102

Some legislators are recognizing the CBDC threat and fighting against it, declaring CBDCs a threat and empowering precious metals holders. However, I’m not sure it will be enough to fight the CBDC tide being engineered by central planners. The system may begin as optional, but with the phasing-out of cash and other incremental measures, will eventually become permanent either through direct legislation or by making it totally impractical to resist.

If the architects of CBDCs can market their new system as the solution to an epic financial crash (of their own making), it will likely appear as a sign of stability that calms global markets, possibly causing gold and silver to drop. But as precious metals emerge as the best form of physical money in a tightly controlled, micromanaged financial dystopia, they’ll become the only way to make private or off-grid transactions, making them more valuable than ever — not only as investments, but a means of survival outside the fully-digitized fiat nightmare.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 08:45

Futures Flat As Post-FOMC Rally Takes A Breather

Zero Hedge -

Futures Flat As Post-FOMC Rally Takes A Breather

US stock futures are flat after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both closed 1% higher on Monday, helped by growing optimism among investors that the economy is finally slowing greenlighting earlier rate cuts by the Fed. As of 8:00am ET S&P futures were unchanged at 5,206, trading about 1% above its 50DMA, while Nasdaq futures were down 0.2% amid some mega-cap weakness. European stocks are higher, while indexes in Japan and the UK are catching up after being closed for holidays yesterday. Shares in Swiss bank UBS jumped after it returned to profit and showed more progress in its integration of Credit Suisse. Treasuries rise, with US 10-year yields falling 3bps to 4.46%. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.1%. The yen weakens 0.4% against the greenback, pushing USD/JPY up to ~154.50. The Aussie falls 0.4% after the RBA kept rates on hold and maintained a neutral stance. Oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.3% to trade near $78.70. Spot gold falls 0.4% and bitcoin traded in a range around $64,000 with the now daily European open/US slam down pattern.  US economic data slate includes March consumer credit at 3pm, while Fed's Kashkari is scheduled to speak twice (11:30am, 1:20pm).

In premarket trading, Disney reported fiscal second-quarter profit that beat estimates, thanks to sharply narrower losses in its streaming TV business and higher ticket prices at theme parks. Still, the stock tumbled 6% after the company reported fewer subscribers to its Disney+ streaming service in the fiscal second quarter than analysts had projected. Here are some of the other notable US movers before the opening bell:

  • Celsius falls 8.4% after the energy-drink maker reported first-quarter revenue that missed even the lowest estimate among analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
  • Coherent climbs 8.5% after the maker of components for the telecommunications industry raised the bottom end of its year revenue forecast.
  • Datadog slips 11% after the cloud software company said that Amit Agarwal will be stepping down as president. The company also posted 1Q results.
  • Esperion Therapeutics rallies 25% after the drugmaker’s first-quarter revenue was ahead of analyst estimates.
  • Fidelity National Information Services’ rises 4% after the company raised its outlook for full-year profit.
  • Gap rises 3% after Citi raised its rating on the retailer to buy on positive momentum and margin upside.
  • Hims & Hers Health jumps 14% after the telehealth company boosted its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year.
  • Lucid drops 8% after the EV maker posted a wider-than-expected loss for the first quarter.
  • Oscar Health climbs 15% after the health insurer reported earnings per share for the first quarter that outpaced Wall Street’s expectations.
  • Palantir falls 13% as the market appeared unimpressed by the company’s outlook for annual sales after the stock has tripled in the past year.
  • Symbotic jumps 14% after the warehouse robotics and automation firm posted forecast-beating 2Q revenue and surpassed expectations for its fiscal 3Q revenue outlook.
  • Vimeo gains 10% after the video software company reported first-quarter results that beat analyst expectations and provided a forecast.
  • Zeta rises 16% after the software company gave a forecast revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.

In a week light on data but heavy on Fedspeak, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari is set to appear Tuesday, one day after his Richmond President colleague Thomas Barkin said Monday said he expects high interest rates to eventually cool US inflation to the central bank’s 2% target. Despite the hawkish rhetoric, swaps traders are betting on about 45 basis points of Fed rate cuts by December, an increase vs before the disappointing jobs report.

“In this environment of growth not rolling over as much as we feared and potentially cuts coming in, there is upside for earnings going forward,” Beata Manthey, head of European equity strategy at Citigroup Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg TV 

"The market is taking a positive view about the US job data and anticipating that the Fed will indeed be able to cut rates," said Arnaud Girod, head of economics and cross-asset strategy at Kepler Cheuvreux in Paris.

European stocks rose for the third consecutive session, boosted by solid company earnings and renewed optimism the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates later this year. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.6%. UBS jumps more than 8% after it returned to profit and UniCredit climbed on better-than-forecast results. German semiconductor-maker Infineon Technologies AG cut its revenue forecast, signaling demand from the automotive industry remains weak.

Earlier in the session, Asia’s equity benchmark traded little changed on Tuesday as a catch-up rally in Korean and Japanese stocks on their return from a holiday was offset by declines in Hong Kong. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1% after capping a three-day gain on Monday. Technology was the best-performing sector in the region, much like in the US session overnight, amid rising hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year. Shares of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix were the biggest contributors to gains on South Korea’s Kospi Index, which jumped 2%, the most in Asia. Shares in Hong Kong fell, with the Hang Seng Index snapping a 10-day winning streak that was the longest since 2018 amid some concern that the rally is overdone.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.1%, marking the second consecutive session of gains, as the greenback rose against most Group-of-10 currencies. The yen weakens 0.4% against the greenback, pushing USD/JPY up to ~154.50. The Aussie falls 0.4% after the RBA kept rates on hold and maintained a neutral stance.

  • AUD/USD led losses falling as much as 0.6% to 0.6587, following the RBA’s interest rate decision; Australia’s central bank opted to maintain policy but markets likely expected the RBA to revert to prior guidance that a further increase in interest rates couldn’t be ruled out
  • USD/JPY rose as much as 0.5% to 154.65, the highest level since May. 2, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said he’s carefully watching the impact of the weak yen on prices and that he discussed recent moves with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida
  • EUR/USD fell as much as 0.1% to 1.0754; German factory orders dropped 0.4% month-on-month in line with expectations, while eurozone March retail sales were up 0.8% from February

In rates, treasuries rose with US 10-year yields falling 3bps to 4.46%. Treasuries were underpinned by bigger gains in core European rates after Germany factory orders unexpectedly declined, pointing to persistent economic headwinds. During Asia session, Treasury futures drew support from dovish reaction to RBA maintaining its neutral bias, keeping interest rates at 4.35%. Focal points of US session include 3-year note auction, ahead of 10- and 30-year sales Wednesday and Thursday. US yields richer by 2bp to 3bp with the curve extending Monday’s flattening move; 10-year around 4.46% is ~2.5bp richer on the day with bunds and gilts outperforming by 1bp and 5bp in the sector. Treasury auction cycle begins at 1pm New York time with $58b 3-year note sale; $42b 10-year and $25b 30-year new issues follow Wednesday and Thursday.

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.3% to trade near $78.70. Spot gold falls 0.4%.

In crypto, Bitcoin firmer today and has reclaimed the USD 64k handle, with Ethereum now holding around USD 3.2k.

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data slate includes March consumer credit at 3pm. Fed members’ scheduled speeches include Kashkari (11:30am, 1:20pm). Elsewhere we get, German March trade balance and factory orders data, French Q1 wages and Eurozone March retail sales. And as the earnings season continues to wind down, releases include Walt Disney, BP, Arista Networks, Duke Energy, McKesson, and Ferrari.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,207.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 511.10
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 178.44
  • MXAPJ up 0.3% to 552.71
  • Nikkei up 1.6% to 38,835.10
  • Topix up 0.6% to 2,746.22
  • Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 18,479.37
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 3,147.74
  • Sensex down 0.4% to 73,564.94
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 1.4% to 7,793.32
  • Kospi up 2.2% to 2,734.36
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.44%
  • Euro little changed at $1.0762
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $83.59/bbl
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $83.58/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $2,315.95
  • US Dollar Index up 0.16% to 105.22

Top Overnight News

  • RBA leaves rates unchanged (as expected) and suggests there won’t by any additional hikes but also doesn’t seem in a rush to ease (new forecasts show no rate cuts until 2025). RTRS  
  • Taiwan’s CPI for Apr comes in below expectations, w/the headline number at +1.95% (vs. the Street +2.2% and down from +2.15% in Mar). BBG  
  • China tightened rules for hedge funds, raising the minimum-asset threshold of the 5.5 trillion yuan ($762 billion) industry while imposing restrictions on the use of derivatives and leverage. BBG
  • Israel sent ground troops into Rafah on Monday night, seizing the main border crossing between Gaza and Egypt as international mediators struggled to continue talks aimed at ending the conflict. FT
  • BP ended a mixed set of Big Oil results by maintaining share buybacks even as profit and cash flow fell more than expected. Aramco will pay $31 billion in dividends to the Saudi government and other investors despite lower profit. BBG
  • UBS returned to profit with wealth management and the investment bank driving the beat. The firm targets another $1.5 billion in cost savings by year-end but sees integration expenses of $1.3 billion this quarter, and cautioned that the Swiss central bank’s recent rate cut will hurt NII. The stock climbed. BBG
  • Social Security and Medicare will exhaust their funds in a little more than 10 years unless action is taken to address the shortfalls (although the new exhaustion dates for Social Security and Medicare are 1 and 5 years later than the prior forecasts). CNN
  • Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser said Monday that consumer behavior has diverged as inflation for goods and services makes life harder for many Americans. Fraser, who leads one of the largest U.S. credit card issuers, said she is seeing a “K-shaped consumer.” That means the affluent continue to spend, while lower-income Americans have become more cautious with their consumption. CNBC
  • AAPL has been working on its own chip designed to run artificial intelligence software in data center servers, a move that has the potential to give the company an advantage in the AI arms race. WSJ
  • Donald Trump’s prized Manhattan office tower at 40 Wall St. is getting swept up by the worst storm to hit the office market since the global financial crisis. Like thousands of other U.S. office buildings, 40 Wall is now under duress because of weakening office demand. WSJ

Earnings

  • Infineon (IFX GY) Q2 (EUR): Revenue 3.63bln (exp. 3.6bln), adj. EPS 0.42 (exp. 0.38), Gross Margin 38.6% (exp. 39.8%).
  • BP (BP/ LN) Q1 (USD): Adj. Net 2.72bln (exp. 2.92bln). Revenue 49.96bln (exp. 52.44bln). Adj. EPS 0.16 (exp. 0.17). Dividend 0.0727 (exp. 0.0730)Announces USD 1.75bln share buyback for Q1. Continues to expect 2024 Capex around USD 16bln.
  • Nintendo (7974 JT) 2023/24 (JPY): Net 490.6bln, +13.4%; Operating 528bln, +4.9%; Recurring 680bln, +13.2%. Sold 15.7mln Switch consoles in FY23/24 (exp. 15.5mln, prev. 17.9mln FY22/23). To make an announcement on a Switch successor in FY24; will not be announcing anything re. successor hardware at Nintendo Direct in June.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed as the region only partly sustained the momentum from Wall St where the major indices extended on post-NFP advances amid rate cut hopes, while key markets returned from the long weekend. ASX 200 traded higher with a further boost in late trade after the RBA proved to be less hawkish than many feared. Nikkei 225 gained on return from holiday as it took its first opportunity to react to last week's NFP report and renewed US rate cut hopes. Hang Seng & Shanghai Comp were subdued with the former set to snap its 10-day win streak and longest consecutive run of gains since 2018, while the mainland index took a breather after yesterday's catch-up rally amid a lack of fresh catalysts.

Top Asian News

  • US will host China's special envoy for climate change Liu Zhenmin in Washington on May 8th-9th, according to the State Department.
  • Japanese top FX diplomat Kanda said it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and the government must take appropriate steps if there's excessive volatility in the FX market, while he added it is usual that they don't comment whether currency intervention was carried out.
  • RBA kept the Cash Rate Target unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, while it reiterated the Board remains resolute in its determination to return inflation to the target and it is not ruling anything in or out. RBA stated that returning inflation to the target within a reasonable timeframe remains the board’s highest priority, as well as noted that inflation remains high and is falling more gradually than expected. Furthermore, the RBA raised its inflation forecasts for 2024 but trimmed forecasts for GDP and unemployment, while its forecasts assume that rates will stay at 4.35% until mid-2025 which is nine months longer than previously assumed.
  • RBA's Bullock says they must be vigilant on inflation risks, believe rates are at the correct level to get inflation back to target. Board discussed the option of hiking. Will tighten if necessary, do not think they necessarily have to tighten again. Should not read too much into the technical assumptions re. rate forecasts. Policy risks remain reasonably balanced.
  • Nintendo (7974 JT) 2023/24 (JPY): Net 490.6bln, +13.4%; Operating 528bln, +4.9%; Recurring 680bln, +13.2%; is to make an announcement on a Switch successor in FY24. Will not be announcing anything re. successor hardware at Nintendo Direct in June
  • Japanese Business Lobby Keidanren Chief Tokura says it is desirable for FX to reflect fundaments in mid and long-term; USD/JPY above 150 is "too much". Does not know if the authorities intervened in the FX market, but if they did, thinks timing was very good. Undesirable for FX to fluctuate through speculators.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda had regular exchange of views with Japanese PM Kishida; discussed FX; confirmed with the PM that the BoJ will take into account impact of economy and prices which could be potentially big. Stands ready to keep close eye out on how JPY moves affect trend inflation; to closely monitor how a weak JPY will impact prices. Explained BoJ's stance of guiding policy from standpoint of sustainably reaching inflation goal.

APAC DATA RECAP

Top European News

  • Barclaycard said UK April consumer spending fell 4.0% Y/Y (prev. +3.5%) which is the lowest since February 2021.

FX

  • DXY is incrementally firmer and in a tight range thus far as markets await fresh impetus following last Friday's post-FOMC NFP-induced slide. DXY sits in a 105.03-28 intraday parameter, with 21 DMA at 105.20.
  • EUR is moving in tandem with the Dollar, and has seen no notable catalysts this morning with key releases for the bloc also light this week. EUR/USD sits in a 1.0755-76 range after briefly dipping under yesterday's low (1.0753).
  • GBP is subdued ahead of Thursday's BoE confab with the MPC expected to keep the Base Rate at 5.25%. GBP/USD trades in a 1.2533-70 range and dipped under its 200 DMA (1.2544).
  • Modestly softer session for the JPY with USD/JPY reclaiming 154.00 status overnight (currently 154.50), whilst Japanese Business Lobby Keidanren Chief Tokura said FX should reflect fundaments in mid and long-term. Elsewhere, BoJ Governor Ueda spoke to PM Kishida regarding FX, though with specifics light.
  • Divergence across the Antipodeans following the RBA policy decision in which the central bank left rates unchanged at 4.35% as expected, whilst analysts framed the release as less-hawkish-than-feared. AUD/USD trades in a 0.6588-6643 range.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1002 vs exp. 7.2143 (prev. 7.0994).

Fixed Income

  • USTs are bid but holding a handful of ticks shy of Friday's 109-09+ payrolls peak & the 10yr yield is holding just above 4.45% by extension. Attention turns to the week's supply, with geopols also a key theme.
  • Bunds have surpassed Friday's post-NFP 131.57 peak, printing a fresh high at 131.71. European specifics light with no reaction to the latest Construction PMIs as the broader market awaits a significant update to the Israel-Hamas situation around Rafah.
  • Gilts gapped higher by 56 ticks after Monday's Bank Holiday, a move which accounts for that the geopol-related upside and a continuation of the post-payrolls dovish price action. Currently holding around 97.75 and higher by 79 ticks thus far.

Commodities

  • Choppy session for the crude complex, as markets await updates from Israel/Rafah; most recently the operation has been said to be "limited". Brent Jul'24 trades between USD 83.30-83.82/bbl.
  • Downbeat price action across precious metals despite a steady Dollar, with the complex failing to gain much impetus from a "limited" Israeli operation in Rafah. Spot gold trades in a USD 2,312.00-2,329.93/oz parameter.
  • LME prices are mostly firmer as the exchange returns from the early May UK Bank Holiday. Elsewhere, JFE executives expects iron ore prices to remain at current levels in FY24/25 amid sluggish Chinese demand.
  • US Senior Adviser for Energy and Investment Hochstein said the US has sufficient supply in Strategic Petroleum Reserve to address any supply concerns and the Biden administration is monitoring markets, according to Reuters.
  • Russian Deputy PM Novak says possibility of raising production under the OPEC+ deal is being analysed, according to Interfax. There is no need to predict further OPEC+ steps, need to look at the market. Had agreed that oil output could be tweaked if needed.
  • Commerzbank expects Palladium price to rise to USD 1100/troy oz (current 975.78) by end of the year; expects platinum to rise to USD 1100/troy oz (current 963) by end of year

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • "Israeli source to CNN: The operation in Rafah is limited and aims to pressure Hamas to conclude an acceptable deal", according to Al Arabiya.
  • Gaza crossings authority said the Israeli army stormed the Rafah crossing, according to Al Arabiya. However, Palestinian media said the Egyptian side informed the crossing's authority that Israeli vehicles are conducting a security operation in the vicinity of the Rafah crossing and will retreat tomorrow. It was later reported Israeli military took control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah border with Egypt, according to Bloomberg..
  • US official said the US has concerns about Israel's unfolding Rafah strikes but it does not appear to represent a major military operation, according to Reuters.
  • 100 congressional staff called on US President Biden and members of Congress to demand an immediate halt to the Israeli offensive before it is too late, according to Axios.
  • Qatar Foreign Ministry said Hamas sent mediators its reply to the truce proposal on Monday and the reply could be described as "positive", while it was separately reported that the Qatari delegation arrives in Cairo on Tuesday to resume negotiations on a truce agreement in Gaza, according to Sky News Arabia.
  • Jordanian Foreign Minister said Israeli PM Netanyahu is jeopardising the ceasefire deal by bombing Rafah, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: Other

  • A US soldier was detained on charges of criminal misconduct in Russia's far eastern city of Vladivostok last week.
  • China reportedly hacked the UK Ministry of Defence with MPs to be told on Tuesday of a large data breach targeting service personnel, according to Sky News.

US Event Calendar

  • 11:30: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Fireside Chat
  • 13:20: Fed’s Kashakari Speaks on Bloomberg TV
  • 15:00: March Consumer Credit, est. $15bn, prior $14.1bn

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It was a bank holiday here in the UK and it didn’t stop raining. I had an early round of golf and half way round the greens were flooded and I was drenched. I may have called it a day but the alternative was childcare. Golf in a biblical downpour is more enjoyable that looking after three bored kids inside on a very wet day. The afternoon was proof of that.

The skies are reasonably bright in markets at the moment with the S&P 500 (+1.03% yesterday) extending its 3-day gain to +3.24% last night, the best such run since November. For 10-year yields, the 4-day decline (-19.3bps) is the largest since the start of February. The lack of a ceasefire in the Middle East hasn't so far impacted sentiment.

A strong close to the US session saw the Magnificent 7 (+1.68%) eke out a new all-time high, with the index up more than 10% from its recent low on April 19. Nvidia (+3.77%) and Meta (+3.04%) led the gains amid the mega caps, but the equity advance was broad-based with 76% of the S&P 500 higher on the day. Small caps also saw a modest outperformance, with the Russell 2000 up +1.23%. Europe’s equity markets recorded a more moderate rise earlier on, including for the Stoxx 600 (+0.53%), Dax (+0.96%), CAX (+0.49%), while FTSE MIB outperformed (+1.06%).

The equity move was helped along by the ongoing bond rally, as 10yr Treasury yields (-2.2bps) declined for a fourth consecutive session to 4.49%, their lowest level since the upside surprise in the March CPI print on April 10. The upcoming CPI print next Wednesday (May 15) will surely be key to the sustainability of this rally. The decline in yields did run out of steam at the front end, with 2yr yields up +1.5bps after falling by -21.8bps over the previous three sessions.

This came as Fed commentary largely echoed Powell’s tone last week, moving away from any signal on the timing of rate cuts but avoiding overtly hawkish messages. Richmond Fed President Barkin said he was “optimistic that today’s restrictive level of rates can take the edge off demand in order to bring inflation back to our target“, noting that “the full impact of higher rates is yet to come.” And New York Fed president Williams signaled eventual rate cuts, though with the timing of these to depend on “the totality of the data”.

We received the latest signal on the impact of the Feds’ earlier tightening with the latest quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey. This showed the tightness in credit standards continuing to moderate for most loan categories, including mortgages and CRE lending. However, the improvement in conditions for commercial & industrial loans stalled, with credit standards for mid-size and large firms a little tighter (+15.6 vs. +14.5) and demand a little weaker (-26.6 vs. -25.0) than in the previous quarter. Nothing to get too concerned about, but some evidence to support the view that a good chunk of the impact from the tighter policy stance is yet to play out. The question is where will rates and credit standards be by the time borrowing needs accelerate.

Over in euro area, the final April PMIs added to the improving growth picture, with upward revisions to the services (53.3 vs 52.9 flash) and composite (51.7 vs 51.4 flash) readings. The euro area composite is at an 11-month high and has moved above the US one for the first time in 12 months. In other data, euro area PPI inflation for March came in line with expectations at -0.4% month-on-month. This did little to dissuade expectations of a June ECB cut, with ECB chief economist Lane noting in an interview that data since the April meeting “ improve my confidence that inflation should return to target in a timely manner ”. Overnight index swaps continued to price 74bps of ECB rate cuts this year, with a June cut 95% priced. 10yr bonds saw a similar modest rally in Europe as in the US, with yields on bunds (-2.7bps), OATs (-2.3bps) and BTPs (-2.2bps) all moving slightly lower.

In the commodity space, oil prices saw some volatility amid mixed Middle East headlines. Having opened higher on Monday, oil prices briefly fell to flat on the day following news that Hamas accepted a cease-fire proposal brokered by Egypt and Qatar . However, they rallied again soon after on reports that Israel’s’s war cabinet rejected the proposal as being “far from Israel’s necessary demands,” with Axios and AP reporting overnight that Israeli troops had entered the southern Gaza city of Rafah. After falling to a seven-week low on Friday, Brent crude ended Monday’s session +0.45% higher at $83.33/bbl, and is trading around another +0.30% higher overnight as I type. This backdrop also boosted gold, which gained +1.04% to $2,326/oz yesterday.

In Asia, the KOSPI (+1.91%) is leading gains hitting a one-month high with the Nikkei (+1.18%) also seeing notable gains as trading has resumed in both markets after a public holiday. Additionally, the S&P/ASX 200 (+1.25%) is spiking higher as we type after the RBA left rates on hold but could have been more hawkish than they were. The Aussie Dollar has weakened -0.40% with 3yr government bonds yields declining -8.6bps, to trade at 3.94% as I type.

Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are bucking the regional trend with the Hang Seng (-0.69%), the CSI (-0.12%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.08%) all trading lower. US futures are flat and Treasury yields are edging slightly lower.

The Japanese yen (-0.38%) continues to drift lower trading at 154.50 against the dollar despite fresh warnings from Japanese officials following two rounds of suspected FX intervention last week. Notably, top currency official Masato Kanda indicated that the government will respond appropriately if there are excessive or disorderly movements in the FX market.

Central bank decisions will remain in focus for the rest of the week, most of all with the BoE on Thursday. Our UK economist expects this week’s meeting to set the stage for the first rate cut in June (see his preview here). Before that, tomorrow the Riksbank could deliver its first rate cut of the cycle. Finally, we have the accounts of April ECB meeting on Friday, and with plenty more ECB and Fed speak to digest before the end of the week. It will quieter be on the data front, with the University of Michigan consumer survey on Friday the arguable highlight given the recent softening in US consumer confidence indicators.

To the day ahead, data releases will include US March consumer credit, Germany March trade balance and factory orders data, France Q1 wages and Eurozone March retail sales. In central bank speak, we will hear from the Fed's Kashkari, and the ECB's De Cos and Nagel. And as the earnings season continues to wind down, releases include Walt Disney, BP, Arista Networks, Duke Energy, McKesson, and Ferrari.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 08:30

Transcript: Joanne Bradford

The Big Picture -

 

 

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Joanne Bradford, Domain Money, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

Barry Ritholtz: This week on the podcast, I have an extra special guest. Joanne Bradford has had a fascinating career in technology, marketing and finance. She was Chief Revenue Officer at Microsoft. She was Chief marketing officer at SoFi. She had very senior roles at places like Yahoo, Pinterest, demand Media Business Week. She has a number of investments as as really a entrepreneur and a venture investor. Domain Money is, is one of the big ones. She’s also involved with wealth.com, and I could, I could give you a long list of all the things she’s, she’s done Kahoot, super telly, just all, all these really fascinating startups. She has had just an unbelievably interesting career and is one of these people who looks at every role she’s had in a company as a challenge and an opportunity. And she has really managed to accomplish tremendous things, not just at Microsoft, where she ran MSNs advertising and marketing, not just at Yahoo or Pinterest, but even a small startup like Honey, which she was president and sold pretty quickly to PayPal for $4 billion. Anytime I get to speak with Joanne, I always come away feeling like I’ve learned so much and, and gained so much from the experience. I found our conversation fascinating. And I think you will also, with no further adieu, my discussion with domain monies. Joanne Bradford

Joanne Bradford: Thank You so much, Barry. It’s an honor to be here.

Barry Ritholtz: Well, it’s a privilege to have you, you and I had a conversation not too long ago, and so much of what you do is so interesting and so fascinating, and so beneath the radar of the average investors, you know, horizon. I thought let’s bring in Joanne and talk about what a fascinating career you’ve had. But I gotta start with your education. You, you started, what is that? San Diego State studying journalism and advertising.

Joanne Bradford:  I was a journalism major because it was the easiest major at the
time, and I went and took advertising courses and went to work at my college newspaper. One side were the writers, one side were the ad salespeople. They paid the ad salespeople. So I went in there and didn’t turn back for 20 years. And so I’ve sold billions of dollars worth of advertising in my life.

Barry Ritholtz:  So Southern California in the late 1980s. Yeah. What was the tech world like
there?

Joanne Bradford: There was no tech world really. I mean, you know, after I graduated from college, I went to work in the Macy’s management program because they were the only people that were hiring. It was either go drive a Frito-Lay truck or a Macy’s management program. I did that for two years. It was fun. Learned how to, how to buy merchandise. But my love of advertising called. And so I ended up working at Business Week Magazine for almost 13 years.

Barry Ritholtz: This was the previous business week before its acquisition by Bloomberg [Yes]. So it was part of, was part of McGraw Hill; who also also owns S&P. {Yeah}. So what did you do at Business Week?

Joanne Bradford: They sent me to a little known land called San Jose in Silicon Valley to sell advertising. And I sold ads to people like Hewlett Packard and Cisco when they had a hundred employees. And I went to Seattle and called on a little company called Microsoft and learned everything I could about technology. Sun Microsystems was the hot ticket at that point in time, and I talked business week into buying me an Apple computer and signing me up for an AOL account. And I’d never looked back on tech.

Barry Ritholtz: In hindsight, all these ads you sold, you should have had them pay for it in stock and it would’ve worked out even better.

Joanne Bradford: Well, you do learn a lesson about equity-based comp, and I finally got that right later on, which we can, which we can talk about. But yeah, I was making commission at that point in time. So when I was a salesperson at Business week, I sold more ads than anybody, and I made $2 million commission when I was 29 years old.

Barry Ritholtz: That’s a lot of money. It was, how do you go from business week to Microsoft?

Joanne Bradford: Well, BusinessWeek wanted me to move to New York to become the
associate publisher. 9/11 happened. My husband wasn’t that excited to come to New York City, and so I said, I have to go beg, borrow, and steal my way into a technology company. So I got the job as Chief Revenue Officer of MSN in 2001. Nobody believed the bust had happened. Nobody was buying spots and dots or ads on the internet. Right. And so I went to work there, and over the course of seven years, I grew it from nothing to two and a half billion dollars in revenue. We did a deal with Facebook to represent them. That led to their investment. Microsoft’s investment in Facebook. We did video ads, the first video ads, we formed the Hulu consortium. There were a lot of firsts during those periods at Microsoft. It was an amazing, amazing time in my career. And Microsoft was an, an insanely good company to work for to learn how to work at an engineering led company.

Barry Ritholtz: Huh. Really, really intriguing. You know, we look at these economic busts or these market crashes, and it’s obvious in hindsight what spectacular opportunities there they were. What did you see in oh two or oh three that led you to say, I know, let me find one of these broken down tech companies and start something fun there.

Joanne Bradford: Well, you know, so at Microsoft when I went there, I knew that people were spending more time online, and I knew that advertising dollars would eventually follow that we had to convince the industry, and I had to go convince people like Proctor and Gamble and Coca-Cola and Walmart that they should spend money with Microsoft. They were spending most of their money with Yahoo. Google wasn’t on the scene yet. And so we did crazy things. We did flyovers on the front page ’cause that made marketers feel good and feel like they were doing something.

Barry Ritholtz: Flyovers means someone lands on the page and it’s like a takeover.

Joanne Bradford: Yeah. Takeovers. Like that was the hot thing. You could sell a takeover for a million dollars a day at that point in time. So I, you know, I, I learned so much and Microsoft was like a startup inside of a big company for me. For me. I worked my last job there. I worked and reported to Satya Nadella, which of Amazing. Yeah, amazing.  He’s done great things.

Barry Ritholtz:  Yeah. As the third CEO of of Microsoft really has led them back to great success. If you’re doing MSN at Microsoft, how do you end up at places like Yahoo and Pinterest?

Joanne Bradford: Well, so when I went to leave Microsoft, I’d sort of done everything that I could do up until I was a corporate vice president. There was 125 of us, and I was like, I wanna go really be an entrepreneur. I wanted to start something. And I went to a little startup that was a failure. Like, not all startups are great. This one had taken a hundred million dollars, didn’t really have a product. And I spent six months there and said, get me out of here.

Barry Ritholtz: By the way, safe to say, most startups are gonna crash and burn. Right?

Joanne Bradford: Most are gonna crash and burn. You know, it’s romanticized. It’s hard to navigate as an employee. You don’t know what to ask for, what to look at. So then I, I knew the Yahoo folks, Jerry Yang and Sue Decker asked me to come in and help them in 2008. Again, a giant crash, like right. So I went to Yahoo and worked on their revenue and sales and marketing for a few years. And then I really still had the entrepreneurial itch. So I went to a company called Demand Media, which was sort of the first reverse engineering of the algorithm. We looked at what people were searching for, you know, how to make a smoky eye, how to write a check, how to make a strawberry margarita. And then we’d write that content and it was called Demand Media. And we took it public. We were doing $450 million in revenue. Google changed the algorithm and wiped out the business. And so everybody out there, that is AI dependent. Remember, the algorithm can change

Barry Ritholtz:  It’s really true. If you are at all interested, you and I have talked about LinkedIn versus Twitter. If you are on someone else’s platform as opposed to your own website, you are absolutely at the mercy and the whim. It doesn’t matter if it’s Elon Musk or Google just tweaking to get better results. If the algo changes, and it affects how often people see your work on that platform, it’s a very difficult set of  circumstances.

Joanne Bradford:  Yeah. Everybody out there that has dependencies on those platforms needs to figure out alternative channels and alternative ways. And, you know, that is just an important, important task for people. You can’t just optimize, you know, Google will change the algorithm, they’ll change the UI, they’ll change the rules, you know, regulatory changes will come. I’ve seen every change possible impact businesses. I mean, remember when we used to sit around and talk about the Facebook newsfeed, like it was, you know, we don’t do that anymore.

Barry Ritholtz:  Right. But to just put a little little meat on the bones. This isn’t just Google and Facebook. It’s anybody that’s a creator and influencer producer of content. So it’s gonna be YouTube and Instagram. Yeah. And TikTok and LinkedIn and I don’t know what comes next, but whatever comes next, it’s their platform. Stop and think about how much time and effort people put into things like Facebook or Twitter or LinkedIn. And you have zero control over what that final product looks likes.

Joanne Bradford: That is correct.It’s really shocking.

Barry Ritholtz: So you, you see the change in Google, it, it crushes demand media. Yep. Where do you go from there in your survey of the best tech companies in, in Silicon Valley? Well,

Joanne Bradford: At that point in time, I was like, wow, I’ve been selling internet ads for a long time. I would like to do something different. So I went back to my roots and I became the president of the San Francisco Chronicle. And why I did that was because I felt like if you’re a Bay Area native and you use SFGate, it is not a great product. Right. And I really felt like San Francisco and the tech world should have a bigger voice.

Barry Ritholtz:It’s a world class city. It should have a world class media it, right.

Joanne Bradford: It, it should, you know, at that point in time, I was the independent director for Kara Swisher and Walt Mossberg. I helped them leave the journal, raise their money, and ultimately I helped them sell it to Vox Media. But I had written a strategy at, at San Francisco Chronicle for Hearst to sort of reinvent that. And there wasn’t really a ton of appetite for it. So I spent six months there. Again, I do not mind cutting and running if it’s not working out right for me. Pinterest had called several times. I loved Pinterest. I knew Pinterest would be big. So I went to Pinterest as the head of partnerships, I set up and sold, I hired 125 ad sellers, account managers and a team to go out and sell the first pin promoted pins. My first hire there is now the Chief Revenue Officer. There are Bill Watkins. Wow. He’s great. Great guy. And we went out and sold the ads, and I knew that Pinterest would be big. I went in there and the valuation was below a billion dollars. And I left after two years. And at two years the valuation was $13 billion. And so that was a fun run. Right.

Barry Ritholtz: I’ll say that’s a hell of a run. Right? Yeah. One to 13. Yep. And then what eventually was the bridge between Pinterest and SoFi in 2015?

Joanne Bradford: Well, again, I was, I, you know, sort of took stock and I said, look, what the heck do I do now? I’ve sold a every ad, I’ve sold videos, I’ve sold, you know, keywords, done deals with every single person in the world, in the ad tech business. And so I said, I need to go learn something completely new, and I wanna work in an industry with new people and new ideas. And a friend of mine that I knew from Business Week said, Hey, I work at this little company called SoFi, and they do student loan refi. And I’ve always been passionate about money. I think people should really, you know, be educated about money, think about their money. You know, student loan debt is one of the biggest problems in America. And so I said, oh, this is interesting. So I met the founder and I said, look, I don’t care if you fire me, I just wanna try to do this job. He was a hedge fund guy. And he said, look, I don’t know anything about marketing. I want you to build this brand like it’s a multi-billion dollar brand. I want you to take risk and let me know what the risk is. I want you to hit the cac, which is customer acquisition cost, and I want you to make sure that we underwrite loans at quality so we can sell them on the capital markets. And I said, I don’t even know what you’re talking about, but I will get it done.

Barry Ritholtz: So that’sVery much like what takes place with Freddie Mae and, and Fannie Mae, where they’re buying conforming mortgages. So the banks now have the cash to make more loans, and then they sell it to Wall Street. This is sort of like Sally Mae, same basic concept. Only private sector.

Joanne Bradford: Private private sector. So we would, you know, and, and the premise of SoFi was that students that went to good schools and were getting law degrees and MBAs and had high student loan debt and engineering schools were not going to default on their loans. That they were going to be employable for as long as they wanted employment. And they were, they, they weren’t gonna default. And so we really underwrote great qualities of loans. And so we did that. And then we got into the personal loan business, which we were, when I left there, we were doing about $3 billion a month. Wow. I was there 2015. There were 75 employees. When I joined, we were doing about 10 to $20 million of loans a month. When I left, we were doing 1.5 billion of student loans and, you know, about 1.5 of personal loans of volume a month.

Barry Ritholtz: Wow. That’s, it’s a lot of funnel. That’s a lot of funnel billion a year. That, that’s a lot.

Joanne Bradford:  And so, you know, you had to learn how to, you know, make deals, drive lead gen, build a community. And I would say that SoFi was and is beloved amongst that segment that helped them refi their loans. A very interesting fact that, that we learned while I was there is that people, if they had a lot of money at play, they would refi their loans, but if it was a little bit amount of money, they would say, oh, it’s kind of a pain. I’m not gonna do it. Right. And so the magic number was $388 a month. If you could save them that, then they thought it was worth it. Which I thought was interesting. Like, why wouldn’t you save $200 a month, you know, to refi your debts?.

Barry Ritholtz:  Behavioral psychology…

Joanne Bradford:  I know, I thought I, I thought you’d like that.

Barry Ritholtz: Yeah. No, I love that stuff. Yeah. Before we talk about the chief revenue experience, let’s talk a little bit about Honey. $4 billion for a relatively young startup. That’s a giant win. Tell us a little bit about your relationship with Honey. You were, you were president of Honey, is that the title?

Joanne Bradford: I was the President of Honey.

Barry Ritholtz: How did you find your way to Honey and what made you think, I know PayPal, this is a perfect fit.

Joanne Bradford: So how I ended up at Honey in Silicon Valley, Cheryl Sandberg used to hold dinners. Women in Silicon Valley dinners where we’d all meet each other. I met an amazing woman there. Her name was Emily, is Emily White. She works at Anthos Capital. She had held the COO job at Instagram and Snapchat and was an early investor in Honey. And when I told her I was leaving SoFi after four years, just ’cause I was done with my financial services chapter until now, and she said, Hey, I’ve got a company for you in LA that I’m just about to invest in with two great founders. Can you go meet them? And I said, what’s it about? She said, well, it’s a coupon code company. I said, absolutely not. I, who wants to work on coupon codes? Are you kidding me? And she said, no, no, just go meet them. And I went and met them, George and Ryan, two of the best founders I have ever worked with in my life.

Barry Ritholtz: And, and to be fair, when you say it’s a coupon company, it really isn’t. It’s a web technology that operates in the background. Okay. Like a coupon, but it, it’s really a shopping search engine to find better prices. Am I, am I doing it justice?

Joanne Bradford: You, you are Barry. So their insight was that finding a coupon code was a pain it. Yes. Right. And you always want one. And so they built a browser extension on Chrome that you could download in two clicks. And when it detected checkout, it would say Pull, look at all the coupon codes, query them all and apply the right one. And so it was a, a great service to consumers. And what happened was we started launch, we launched it with gamers playing YouTube on their desktop. And a little gamer called Mr. Beast.

Barry Ritholtz: Okay. Giant!

Joanne Bradford: So we were his first advertiser, and we did a deal with him. He made an ad, you can go look it up. If you look up Mr. Beast Honey ad an ad comes up, his collective ads, I think have been seen, you know, I’m gonna say billions, billions. Three plus close to 4 billion times. Wow. Every kid in America knows what honey is. Every kid in America was telling their moms and their dads, they needed to download coupon. You know, honey, in order to save money, the marketing, the team did it. I didn’t create it, but they did a great job of telling a story very clearly to the consumer and getting them to take action. They started with gamers, then they went to YouTube, makeup people. Who doesn’t love a Sephora coupon? Did you just get to the Sephora coupon code for the sale this week, Barry? That’s like, it’s like crazy. I missed that one this week. You missed that one.

Barry Ritholtz: I will tell you, it’s a annoying as hell as you’re about to click the purchase. Do you have a coupon code? I don’t know. I didn’t think of it. But now that you’re mentioning it, should I have a coupon code?

Joanne Bradford: Well, you, you, they should tell you there aren’t any, you know, they should say there are none. ’cause then you’d feel better right. By saying, is there one you feel like you’re missing something?

Barry Ritholtz:  There have been times where do I really wanna buy this mailbox for $300 without the 20% off coupon code? Yeah. The, the prompt loses them a sale.

Joanne Bradford:  It does. And you know, cart abandonment is a big deal. And so this helped improve that. The revenue model was affiliate. So we got a cut of the transactions that would go through there.

Barry Ritholtz: Plus the data must be astonishing.

Joanne Bradford: TheData, they were very clear, the founders, that they were not going to sell the data and they were going to protect the consumer at all costs.

Barry Ritholtz:  But, I mean, the data to the company AB Absolutely. Absolutely. That’s using the code. You could say, here’s how we’ve changed. Yes. The cart abandonment, here’s how the upsells have gone. Here’s how the average carts like that internal data, I don’t mean like the Facebook reselling stuff Yeah. That most people over 40 are concerned about, but just the how can we make you better as a retailer?

Joanne Bradford: 100%. And you saw, you know, you saw where people came from, how they executed it. And so we built some really great products for the merchants. The funding story of Honey is interesting. The founders, George and Ryan went to every venture capitalist in Silicon Valley, and everyone turned them down

Barry Ritholtz: Because it was just, oh, coupons. Is that what the thinking was?

Joanne Bradford: No, they said they sort of turned their nose at coupons and they also turned their nose at desktop, not mobile. Mobile was the thing at that point in time. And they were like, everything must be mobile. It would be like, today you sang we’re doing something old. And everybody’s like, everything must be AI today. Right? Right. So everybody said no. And so they raised money, they found Anthos. Anthos got on it. There was a bunch of other private investors that did and did very, very well. So let’s go to the part where PayPal comes into it. So everybody’s like, why? Everybody was surprised when the headline came out. PayPal buys Honey for $4 billion. Shocked. And I say to them, don’t be shocked. What Honey had was 20 plus net new active users that was PayPal’s metric at that time, 20 plus, 20 million Net new active users

Barry Ritholtz: Wow. That they could add to PayPal’s numbers.

Joanne Bradford: It was a profitable business. So it didn’t have an negative impact to the P&L. And it also brought new engineers and new thinking and a different shopping strategy to PayPal. So, you know, people always come to me or they’re like, oh, this company should buy that company. Right. And I just go through the checklist. Do you have a ton of users? Do you have some path to profitability or better yet profitability? Right. And do you have strategic thinking and or talent that would give insight? And so PayPal was smart. It checked all the boxes on that. So it, it was sort of a no-brainer. We did, you know, it was a short time after I joined that we made the transaction and it was a short time before covid. We closed the deal January 2nd, 2020

Barry Ritholtz:  And, and I’m assuming Covid didn’t really hurt them when everybody’s home. Covid was excellent for honey, right?

Joanne Bradford: Everybody’s home shopping online. Yeah. I gotta think turns out, oh, we’re not hurt by this acquisition. This is right in, it was great. What’s Happening? We were, we were, our biggest problem was creating ads, new fresh ads for honey. We, every employee was shooting ads in their house. I was like, kids we’re making honey ads on our iPhones. And it was a really, really fun, fun time to, to be there and to be part of such an exciting acquisition. So what it really taught me, you know, out for your listeners out there is, you know, when I went in to talk to that company, I asked for three things. I said, can I see the last three board decks and can I see the roadmap? And can you show me your revenue and your profitability? And they had no problem with it. So as a senior level employee or a potential board member of companies, that’s what I do. I go look through those because over a course of nine months, you can see if people addressed a problem, seized an opportunity, know how to talk about things, know how to think about things. And the honey guys passed all those things on with flying colors for me. And they were awesome human beings.

Barry Ritholtz: So you are talking the way many venture capitalists talk, but I know you
well enough to know you don’t really think of yourself as a vc. I know you’re an investor in a lot of early stage companies, but when someone says, what do you do? Your answer isn’t venture capital.

Joanne Bradford: No, I’m a, like, I think I invest with my human capital, right? I try to get, you know, a significant stake in a company and something that I believe in and something that I can help accelerate. So it, it is a little bit the same process and how I spend my, my time and effort. And it has to be aligned with, with my values. You know? So that’s how I think about it. That’s how I’ve made my choices. I’ve had a few pivots in, in my life on it that have served me well. And I think, you know, I think you can figure out almost anything If you’ve had experiences in startups and doing things like you’ve, you’ve built many things. You know how to do it, you know? Right. What, what’s gonna happen. And you have to be very open to it. So I was very, very open to coupon codes. I was open to Pinterest. I was open to a financial engineered product for student loans. Right. You know, I like things that have not been done before. I like things that are white space in a market. And I think there’s just a, a giant opportunity for talent to find those and to think about it. Don’t take the first obvious one. ’cause that’s kind of painful.

Barry Ritholtz: Right. So let’s talk about some other startups that you have advised or are advising right now. Yeah. What is Super?

Barry Ritholtz: Joanne Bradford: Oh, Super. they help you save money on travel, and then they have a subscription service that helps people earn money. It’s a company based out of Toronto with a really great young founder duo that have built something to help people get deals every day. And it’s a, it’s an app that is helpful in ways that Google isn’t. And they’re trying to combine all those experiences and give you ultimately a, a cash management tool someday. Like everybody will eventually be a financial services company or an advertising company. Like that’s just the way it goes. Like, I don’t Right.

Barry Ritholtz: Joanne Bradford: All roads lead to those, all
00:28:10 [Speaker Changed] Roads lead to this. So
00:28:11 [Speaker Changed] Let’s talk about a financial company. Yep. wealth.com.
00:28:15 [Speaker Changed] Wealth.com, a really great company that is building AI technology for
making trusts, wills estates, easy to manage lawyers spend and run up bills to collate your paper to show
you where things are. If you wanted to leave me your watch or I wanted to leave you a Birkin, it would
cost a lot on the lawyer in wealth.com. You can go in and change it very simply. And
00:28:46 [Speaker Changed] It’s different in every state. There are different rules, right.
00:28:48 [Speaker Changed] They have, are compliant in every state. It is a, a very strong platform for
advisors, RAs, and, you know, a lot of them are using it at domain money. We use it because most
people don’t have trusts set up properly. And so they have done that and they’re a B2B company right
now. And I think eventually they’ll be a B2C company.
00:29:15 [Speaker Changed] So let’s talk about domain money. Yeah. Since you brought that up, tell us a
little bit about what you did starting up domain money last year and some of the All stars you’re working
with.
00:29:28 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. So I worked with a certified financial planner called Katie Song when I
was at SoFi. And she did a plan for me personally and answered the questions, can I retire? Can I send
my kids to school? Should I buy another home? Can I go on vacation every year for a month? Like
literally went through my budget, my spending, my potential spending and my investments. And I loved
it so much that I said, let’s build a business when I have a moment in time. And so we started working on
it. Then Adam Dell was working on domain money. He came to me and said, Hey, I’m working on this. I
said, I’ve got, you know, this product with Katie Song. We put them together in November. Now
00:30:15 [Speaker Changed] Let me interrupt you and just point out for the listener. Adam Dell has a
brother named Michael.
00:30:23 [Speaker Changed] I’ve never met Michael,
00:30:25 [Speaker Changed] Who’s, who did something with computers back
00:30:27 [Speaker Changed] In the nineties. Yeah, I think so. Something like that.
00:30:28 [Speaker Changed] I think so. And he also happened to set up a little thing called Marcus at
Goldman Sachs. He
00:30:34 [Speaker Changed] Did, he sold, Adam was a vc and then OpenTable was one of his runaway
successes. And then he sold Clarity money to Goldman Sachs and ran Marcus for a little while. And very
00:30:49 [Speaker Changed] Different OpenTable.
00:30:51 [Speaker Changed] Very different.
00:30:51 [Speaker Changed] But that’s a, just a pure technology to drive reservations. Yeah. Which I
don’t know anybody that doesn’t have that on their phone. Right. I mean, literally it’s ubiquitous.
00:31:00 [Speaker Changed] It, it, it is, you know, resi versus OpenTable. We can have a you discussion,
you
00:31:05 [Speaker Changed] Gotta use
00:31:05 [Speaker Changed] ’em both if you
00:31:05 [Speaker Changed] Need
00:31:06 [Speaker Changed] Competition. Of course, of course you do. It’s like, it’s like an Amex and a
Chase card. You have ’em both. So Adam, really, we have a, a big vision that there’s a very big
opportunity out there for people that are not in need of an a UM advisor and that don’t wanna do it
themselves. There’s a giant gap in that market, sort of, you know, the Home Depot, Lowe’s of financial
services, right. Where you, you and, and you want a little more help, the equinox of it, the, the pre novo
of it where you, you need help, but not forever and not at the expense. And I manage my money both
ways. I have a UM and I do some, you know, flat fee on my own. And so we built this product called the
one page plan that will literally analyze what you spend down to your DoorDash, down to your credit
card, down to your Amazon, and then look at your investments and tell you you need to save $63,000 a
year for the next 10 years to get even close to where you’re gonna be.
00:32:12 And here’s the five action items you need to take. And so we offer that plan for $2,500. If it’s
more complex, we offer a strategic plan or a full comprehensive plan where we’ll help rebalance and,
and do your portfolio for $7,500. We have, you know, people coming to us every day just on word of
mouth. People are confused and overwhelmed. They, well, they love a, you know, TikTok, you know,
budget tool. They can’t do it themselves. They need more help. Hmm. And so that’s the place in the
market that we’re serving. You know, I’d say if the dis, if I had to describe the consumer, they’re sort of
38 years old and they wake up and they go, wait a minute. Crap, I didn’t, I didn’t do all these things.
00:32:57 [Speaker Changed] Tax day was Monday, tax day was, what
00:32:59 [Speaker Changed] Did I forget? What did I forget? Why didn’t I set my Roth IRA up? Why
didn’t I start my college fund? You know, you put it off every day and you shouldn’t, nobody here that
listens to this show should not have a financial plan even if they did it themselves. Right. If they had
someone do it for them, you have to have one. Otherwise, you shouldn’t be listening to the show.
00:33:22 [Speaker Changed] You, you have some amazing partners with this. I feel like I want to throw a
ringer in. ’cause Yeah. People are, are so some of the early engineers from Amazon Web Services Yep.
Are part of this. Mark Benioff, who’s certainly super well regarded out in sup, Silicon Valley, Palantir and
all that. Yeah. Some kid named Ashton Kutcher Yes. Is involved. Like, I’m trying to make up a name and I
can’t Yeah. That’s an incredible set of partners for what’s essentially not even a year old startup.
00:33:54 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, Adam’s track record and relationships were
able to attract quality investors and quality talent. And now we’re just trying to deliver an unbelievable
experience for people. If you don’t like it, we’ll give you your money back. But we have people that are
just delighted every day with it. And that’s the goal. You know, we want people to have more financial
control in their lives. It’s, it’s too important, you know, it’s, for me, it’s a value system and a belief system
and what you do with your money and how you think about it and how you live. And so that’s why I got
involved with, with domain money. And it’s, it’s been very rewarding.
00:34:35 [Speaker Changed] It, it, it sounds like it. So I wanna talk a little bit about when you were in
Silicon Valley and working as a woman in what was very much a male dominated technology field. And I,
I guess the thought was, I know, let me find another male dominating field. Let me, let me go to finance
and see what I could shake up there. But I use that phrase on purpose because I know you’ve been very
influential in different fields from the inside. Tell us a little bit about the evolution that we’ve seen in
technology and, and now finance.
00:35:16 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. Let, let’s just, in my early career, many rooms I went into, and still
today, I’m the only woman in those rooms. And so I take my responsibility pretty seriously that I have to
bring the voice of other women into the room. I work with an organization called The Female Quotient,
how it started. And everybody should go followed on social. They have viral videos. They had one go
viral with a hundred million views the other day. Wow. They started doing events at CES and South by
Southwest and trade shows all around the world where they created a place for women to go and
convene. And all of the power women went there. They called it the Girls Lounge. You could go in and
get a hair blow dry and a makeup and have a glass of champagne. It has since turned into the Equality
Lounge.
00:36:09 And they do programming in every one of those lounges. And they let everybody in. Everybody
is welcome. You don’t have to have a badge to the show. They’re like, look, if you’re in town, come by. If
you’re support staff and you can’t get into the party, we don’t, we don’t believe in that. So everybody
comes. It’s one of the most powerful places at CES at Davos, at South by Southwest. What it has
reinforced for me is that women need to convene, they need to support each other. They need to see
each other being successful and what, how that’s normalized. So for men, and I, Barry, you and I have
had this conversation, I think it’s important to, number one, if I ran a company and I was a man, I would
give them allowance or budget to go convene as women with other women in their industry.
00:37:07 Tomorrow I’m going to the CNBC change makers, which is their women initiative that is
launching this year, would be a great afternoon gathering and talks by other women that have made
significant changes for the year. And there’s just a great opportunity to network and connect at those
things. If the leader from your organization goes out and shows up in the community, it’s going to
attract other people from the community. Right. It’s, it’s pretty basic. And so that’s, that’s number one.
Number two is that you really have to give people responsibility. I asked for responsibility at every turn
in my life.
00:37:51 [Speaker Changed] I I was about to bring that up because you’ve told stories about Microsoft.
Yeah. You told stories that I’ve heard at Yahoo where you went to senior management and said, listen, I,
I have more bandwidth and here’s what I wanna do. Yeah. What are those conversations like? How, how
do they go? And is everybody always receptive?
00:38:12 [Speaker Changed] They’re not always receptive, but look, today, putting an idea down on a
piece of paper and sending it to someone is free. And what it shows people is how serious you are about
that idea and that you’ve put some thought into it. And those have been pivotal turning moments for
me in my career where I sat took pen to paper. And you can do it with AI now. So it’s not even that hard.
Right. I take notes on everything I do. I spit it into, I like Bard’s tone of voice better than chat GPT, but
that’s just me. And I’m like, okay, write me a proposal based on these five things I just saw and what
would it be? And then I’m like, eh, should I do this? Should I not do this? But I did the same thing in my
early days at business week.
00:39:00 I was like, Hey, we need to go buy a URL. Okay. We, and you know, like convinced business
week that we should put advertiser links on a page in the magazine. I’m like, I will get money for that
page of advertising. So we sold people’s URL listings on a page in business week. We sold a crossword in
business week. I was like, let’s put a crossword in there. I think it’s a good idea. You know, like you just
have to keep putting ideas forward and then people will see that. And so as, as a woman, I said, that’s
how I’m gonna break through. That’s, that’s what I’m gonna do.
00:39:36 [Speaker Changed] What happened in a place like Microsoft that was very much an old boys
club, it’s Bill and Steve and the rest of the crew. When you say, Hey, I want to convene a group of
women to talk about how we could do better at Microsoft, do they take it seriously? Is there a little
snickering? Like, what’s
00:39:55 [Speaker Changed] The response? No, they said, they said great. They said great. I, you know, I,
00:40:00 [Speaker Changed] This is post DOJ antitrust case. Yes. So there was a little sensitivity as to
how they looked in emails and elsewhere I would imagine.
00:40:09 [Speaker Changed] Yes. You know, I worked, I worked more closely with Steve there and still
keep in touch with him. And, you know, he, he has a woman, Gillian Zucker that runs his operation
there. That is amazing. Also, I think at
00:40:27 [Speaker Changed] The Clippers or
00:40:28 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, at the Clippers. Yeah. And the Forum now and Intuit Center. And has
just unbelievable responsibility. And is
00:40:36 [Speaker Changed] That a sea change from 20 years ago?
00:40:39 [Speaker Changed] Look, he always gave everybody opportunity. I I didn’t, I didn’t feel there
was any gender bias in his approach. Huh. Like, he was just like, you know, get it done, get it done. Know
your numbers, get it done. And, you know, I’ve always sort of worked for and signed up for tours of
duties with people that I felt were just like, yeah, get it done. And so I think it’s just important that you
give people the opportunity. And I don’t care if it’s, you know, male or female, but to put ideas forth on
how they want things changed. ’cause they see them, they know them better than you do. And like, I
saw the video opportunity, so I did a, a thing called Live Earth where we 7 7 0 7 where we beamed music
around for 24 hours. Oh
00:41:30 [Speaker Changed] Sure. I
00:41:30 [Speaker Changed] Remember. Yeah. That was, you know, I went to Microsoft. That was you.
00:41:33 [Speaker Changed] I had no idea
00:41:34 [Speaker Changed] I did that. I did that, I did that with Kevin Wall and Bobby Schreiber helped
me. And you know, we had every artist in the world doing that. And it was to promote Microsoft’s video
player and it was the largest streamed event globally until that guy jumped outta the plane on YouTube,
which was a long time. And I, you know, took the risk. It was, Microsoft was not a sustainability focused
company at that point in time. And they were like, huh Joanne, this isn’t so great. I’m like, I’m gonna pay
for it advertising. And I got General Motors to sponsor it. And it was a huge, it was a huge success. But
we wrote that up and took it in and presented the p and l for it and got it done. So it’s anything’s
possible when you put it to paper.
00:42:22 [Speaker Changed] So, so you are at maybe not a giant company like Microsoft, but a smaller
firm that maybe isn’t paying as much attention to gender issues. ’cause they’re, you know, they’re
swimming as fast as they can against the tide. And you bring up an idea, Hey, I want to convene the
women on your investment committee or the women who work in your, your sales group. What’s the
response like from companies and what are the net results when you get a group together like that?
00:42:53 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I’ll, I’ll talk about the Pinterest experience. When I worked at
Pinterest, you know, I was much older than the average employee. A lot of employees were starting to
have kids and the moms were really sort of, you know, overwhelmed. Right. Because it was a startup
environment. We were going, going hard, hard, hard.
00:43:16 [Speaker Changed] And am I remember correctly, was Pinterest very much a female user base?
Yes,
00:43:21 [Speaker Changed] It was.
00:43:21 [Speaker Changed] Right. Like 80% some crazy number.
00:43:23 [Speaker Changed] Yes. And we were 30% women when I was there. Huh. So, which was
interesting. And the moms wanted to convene. And so I said, just give me an hour of meeting space. We
just want them to get together and share information and knowledge, things as basic as, you know, how
are you dealing with preparing meals for your kids? To my recruiter nanny, what she had to fire her
suddenly one day. And what do you do in that situation and how do you communicate that to your, to
your boss, your manager, in those kinds of environments? And I will say today that Pinterest has carried
that on. And I still talk to many of those women and I did a, a sort of a, a group talk for Pinterest the
other day where there’s many of those mothers that say that was the difference between this being
bearable and unbearable. For me, this was the difference between me feeling like I am failing at my job
or doing well at my job, that I have some common ground. And so let people find common ground. You
don’t have to control everything. And I just think women, mothers, caregivers really, really need to
convene and give them permission, give them space to do it because it will make them more committed,
better employees, and more productive on, on every level. Those things are not hard. They’re not
expensive.
00:44:51 [Speaker Changed] So I have to 0.1 thing out that I’m fascinated by you, and I don’t know if this
is coincidental or just a component of your personality, but it seems that each of your major career
events all seem to take place in these wild dislocations. So you start at Microsoft in the midst of the
dotcom implosion, terrible, right. Nasdaq down 81% peak to trough. Yeah. The next gig starts pretty
much in the middle of the financial crisis. Yes. And then the honey transaction literally day one of the
pandemic. Yes. Is it that you just see opportunities when there’s sort of mayhem and everybody’s
running around with their, with their heads cut off? Or is this just some crazy dumb luck?
00:45:45 [Speaker Changed] I mean, I’ve asked myself that question. You know, all of my friends would
tell me never to do the jobs that I took. Right. Okay. My youngest,
00:45:56 [Speaker Changed] Well, that’s some terrible advice.
00:45:57 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. I don’t take it. And my youngest daughter told me this, and it’s a good
friend of mine just wrote a book that’s titled it, nobody Cares what You Do or Where You Work.
00:46:11 [Speaker Changed] I have her coming in next month. Yeah.
00:46:13 [Speaker Changed] Sh
00:46:13 [Speaker Changed] From Bar Sports.
00:46:14 [Speaker Changed] Erica worked for me and with me for 10 years. Oh, I
00:46:17 [Speaker Changed] Had no idea. Yeah. That’s completely coincidental. Yes. I love, I love the title
of that book.
00:46:22 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. And so, you know, when I would lament about it, my daughter would
just go, mom, nobody, nobody cares. Like, nobody cares what you do, what you put on LinkedIn, what
you say, where you go. So you need to just really get over it. Kids
00:46:41 [Speaker Changed] Keep you honest, don’t they? It
00:46:42 [Speaker Changed] Keeps you really, really honest. And so, you know, I, I don’t think, you know,
when I started working, it was go to work, work responsibly, work up the ladder as far as you can go in a
company. I got up the ladder pretty quickly in a lot of companies to very senior positions. And then I was
like, wait a minute, do I wanna do this for the rest of my life? And the answer was no. The answer was, I
like the excitement of building, I like the excitement of new territories and new industries. And so that is
really sort of my larger calling on this stuff then like, am I a crazy risk taker? You know, jumping out of,
you know, corporate jobs, you know, playing the equivalent of that. No. Well,
00:47:30 [Speaker Changed] They seem to have worked out. So it’s not like, it’s not like you’re risk
embracing with no upside. You seem to be appropriately risk embracing or at least looking at with the
advantage of hindsight bias, looking at the track record, it seems that you took the right amount of risk
at the right time in the right places, or you’ve just been on an incredibly lucky run of dice. And I don’t
believe it’s the latter. I think it’s the former.
00:47:59 [Speaker Changed] Well, you know, I do think experience gives you something and I can cut the
line in in many things in figuring out how to get to the person, to the right group. I, I’m advising two
young women that dropped out of Stanford that you’ll hear about soon and help them raise money for a
very interesting product. And we were able to sort of short circuit the system and get them in front of
the right people very quickly. And, you know, I can bring that skill to, to a lot of different scenarios. And
so that’s what I, what I try to do. Right. And that the sort of three key areas I focus on my life or number
one is really financial wellbeing. I just, I want everybody to just makes your life better on every front.
You know, number two is really female leadership and you know, getting them to be all of us to be
confident enough to take risks and to like stand up and, and speak and not be afraid of the
consequences in those situations. And then the third category that we’ve talked a little bit about is I
really love resale luxury. And I think it’s, you know, a very big growth market. Well,
00:49:15 [Speaker Changed] You’re in the right city for it. If
00:49:16 [Speaker Changed] I was ever gonna be, I, I wrote a plan a couple years back to do an activist
takeover of the RealReal. I got some investors together. I just hate the way that a company is run. So if
there’s anybody out there listening, I really, I wrote a plan, but they have a $300 million convertible debt
note that triggers and a change of control. So I abandoned that. They’re private
00:49:37 [Speaker Changed] Right? You?
00:49:37 [Speaker Changed] No, they’re public. They public. They
00:49:39 [Speaker Changed] Weren went public.
00:49:39 [Speaker Changed] The real, real. Oh, so they went public. I was an investor. They went out at
like 2 billion. I think it’s worth, you know, 150 million today. I, I can’t even look at it ’cause it’s so painful.
Down
00:49:47 [Speaker Changed] 85% usually engenders a change in control.
00:49:51 [Speaker Changed] I understand. But so in the meantime, that market is gonna grow like crazy.
So I’m working on a few projects in, in that category. But, you know, I I I and it’s also a community based
product, right? Like people are buying from each other. There’s an unbelievable world of crazy stuff
going on on Instagram and social selling and those platforms. And I think that will be a, a big, big market
for a long time to come. So, you know, I I I feel fortunate that I can do what I wanna do and I get to sit
here and talk to you about it and like sort of look back on it and say, oh yeah, I was so smart. But, you
know, I, I just, I kept swinging the bat is really what it came down to.
00:50:30 [Speaker Changed] Smart, persistent, a little bit of luck. That’s a great combination. Tell us
what you’re streaming these days. What are you watching or listening?
00:50:38 [Speaker Changed] I am watching the new look because I love fashion and I love history, so I
love a documentary. So that’s what I’m watching these days.
00:50:48 [Speaker Changed] Have you watched, what is it Palm Royale on? Not yet. If you wanna see a
just lovingly photographed set of fashion and just great. The way it’s done is spectacular on the list.
Spectacular on the list. Let’s talk about mentors who helped shape your career.
00:51:09 [Speaker Changed] There was a guy, I was on the board of care, which is the world’s largest
NGO for six years. And there was a really excellent McKinsey partner that ran the board practices Paul
Jansen. And he taught me how to be a good board member. Hmm. And being a good board board
member means you don’t talk too much and that you are supportive in critical moments of decision. So
he was one. I think, you know, Steve Baumer taught me a lot about how to think in an engineering
mindset and think about technology. You know, I, I have, I think an entrepreneur and someone that
starts a company is sort of the bravest soul in the world right now. So anything I can learn from them I
do.
00:51:52 [Speaker Changed] Huh. Really interesting. Let’s talk about books. What are some of your
favorites? What are you reading right now? What
00:51:57 [Speaker Changed] Am I reading right now? Midnight Express a a tale about someone that
helps her sister through hospice and then takes mushrooms to overcome depression and anxiety.
00:52:09 [Speaker Changed] So not the seventies era movie about
00:52:13 [Speaker Changed] No, no, no.
00:52:14 [Speaker Changed] About bringing has
00:52:17 [Speaker Changed] No, no,
00:52:18 [Speaker Changed] No. Totally different.
00:52:19 [Speaker Changed] Yes. Totally different, huh?
00:52:20 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. And, and Gimme One More
00:52:22 [Speaker Changed] Financially Fearless by Katie song, which was written out of a need
Facebook group. Moms would ping her every day about financial advice. So she sat down over a
weekend and wrote a book for them. And we self-publish it and we give it to every tech mom we know.
So they have a financial
00:52:41 [Speaker Changed] Plan financially. Fear, fearless. Yeah. And let’s, let’s, let’s throw a bone into
Kara. What, what your friend Kara Swisher, what’s her new book that’s Out
00:52:49 [Speaker Changed] Burn? Who Doesn’t Love Burn? Right. You know, I told Kara I was coming
here today. She’s like, Barry is a very good podcaster. I’ve been on a few,
00:52:58 [Speaker Changed] I have to get her back in to talk about the book ’cause it’s literally, I just
finished a book for next week’s podcast. Yeah. And her book is literally next in my too.
00:53:08 [Speaker Changed] I’m in the book. I’m in the book. I know. So the book was fun. You know,
Kara is, Kara
00:53:14 [Speaker Changed] Is, she’s fearless. She,
00:53:15 [Speaker Changed] There is nobody more fearless than Kara Swisher.
00:53:19 [Speaker Changed] She absolutely does.
00:53:20 [Speaker Changed] She, there’s nobody,
00:53:21 [Speaker Changed] She names names and leaves her. And then
00:53:25 [Speaker Changed] Also loves work, loves to invent, loves to be ahead of things, really a, a very,
very sharp person.
00:53:35 [Speaker Changed] V, very much so. So our final two questions. What sort of advice would you
give to a recent college grad who is interested in a career in fill in the blank finance, technology, startups
venture? What, what’s the advice to that recent graduate?
00:53:54 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. Do your research. So if you wanna go into finance, there’s two
women that run a, a Instagram channel called Wall Street Skinny that teach you how to get jobs and
money. You should have them on the show. They both worked in it.
00:54:08 [Speaker Changed] Wall Street, skinny,
00:54:08 [Speaker Changed] Wall Street skinny, they’re amazing. They always cite you, but they teach
you the ins and outs of how to get a job in finance on every front. I think if you were going to get a job at
a public company, you should read their annual report.
00:54:23 [Speaker Changed] The company itself. You stop the company, you go on a a, b, C bank read
ABC Bank’s annual report,
00:54:28 [Speaker Changed] 100%. Like first stop, first stop on the hip parade, go read the annual
report. It’s their strategy document’s. It’s what they tell people. If not, that’s
00:54:37 [Speaker Changed] Very, that’s very astute.
00:54:39 [Speaker Changed] You have to do it right. Like you read it, you are further ahead than most
employees there. Wow. So do your research. Right. You know, I’ve gone deep into, you know, filings like
SEC filings. Like I, you know, I, before I go work with a company that’s public, I look at every execs comp
package. Like I love to, you know, dumpster dive through SEC filings. It’s not that hard to do. Set your
alerts, so do your research. Know what the person cares about, knows what the company cares about
and have interest in them and also bring them ideas. My daughter was once looking for a job and a
freelance job and I said, just remake the person’s website. It was a company I invested in their website
drove me crazy and she’s a designer and I said, he’s not gonna tell you what he wants, so just do it and
send it to him. So she did it and sent it to him and he hired her to do that project on the spot, right?
Yeah. And she’s like, I don’t wanna do spec work. And I’m like, well, it’s, when you’re starting off, you
have to do some spec work. Right. It’s just the way it is.
00:55:43 [Speaker Changed] That, that’s tremendous advice. Our final question, what do you know
about the world of investing, startups, marketing and branding today? You wish you knew a couple of
decades ago when you were first getting started?
00:55:58 [Speaker Changed] Do not fight so hard on your brand. So I’ll, I have a brand I advise. It was
called four days. F-O-R-F-O-R-D-A-Y s.com. They sold you a T-shirt and at the end of life you could send
the T-shirt back. I worked with the CEO. I said, look, this needs to look a little more like Skittles and be
bright. She has rebranded it to trashy.io has a deal with Walmart and sold out of her take back bags that
are going viral on Instagram. And it was too hard to explain what four days was. Right. trashy.io, send
your old clothes back, get cash reward for it. Very simple, straightforward. It’s on a tear right now. When
you overcomplicate what you’re selling, it’s impossible. Nobody can listen. Nobody can follow it. You,
you, you, you white out. So you gotta keep it simple. Huh.
00:56:55 [Speaker Changed] Really, really fascinating stuff. Joanne, thank you for being so generous with
your time. We have been speaking with Joanne Bradford of Honey Pinterest yahoo wealth.com. Domain
money, go down the whole list. If you enjoy this conversation, check out any of the previous 500 or so
we’ve done over the past nine and a half years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, YouTube, wherever
you find your favorite podcasts. Check out my new podcast at the Money, 10 minute conversations with
experts about your money, earning it, spending it, and most importantly, investing it. Find it in the
Masters in Business Feed, or wherever you find your favorite podcasts. I would be remiss if I did not
thank the correct team that helps put these conversations together each week. Sarah Lipsey is my audio
engineer. Atika Val is my project manager. Anna Luke is my producer. Sean Russo is my researcher. I’m
Barry Ltz. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

~~~

 

The post Transcript: Joanne Bradford appeared first on The Big Picture.

CoreLogic: US Home Prices Increased 5.3% Year-over-year in March

Calculated Risk -

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for March. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for February. The CoreLogic HPI is a three-month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: Northeast Continues to Lead US for Annual Home Price Gains in March, CoreLogic Reports
U.S. single-family home prices rose by 5.3% year over year in March, marking the 146th consecutive month of annual growth.

• Over the next 12 months, year-over-year home price gains are projected to range between 5.6% and 3.7%.

• Four of the top five states for annual appreciation in March are in the Northeast: New Jersey (12.2%), New Hampshire (10.6%), Connecticut (9.5%) and Rhode Island (9.2%).
...
U.S. year-over-year home price gains remained above 5% in March for the fifth straight month and are projected to stay in that general range for most of the next 12 months. Northeastern states continued to post the nation’s largest gains, as more Americans migrate to bedroom communities of major cities and job hubs, as well as areas where household incomes are relatively higher and can sustain the elevated cost of homeownership. In addition, the inventory gains seen in states like Florida and Texas still lag in the Northeast, a trend that continues to exacerbate supply-and-demand fundamentals and further adds to home price pressure in that region. Consequently, markets with larger additions of homes for sale are now experiencing slowing home price appreciation.

“Home prices increased again this March beyond the typical seasonal uptick, despite mortgage rates reaching this year’s high and the affordability crunch continuing to keep many prospective buyers on the sidelines,” said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Even with the long-anticipated break in for-sale inventory, the surging cost of homeownership, further fueled by rising insurance and tax expenses, is holding potential home sales back, as is evident in the slow rise in sales compared with last year. These price pressures reflect the overall supply-and-demand mismatch, as well as continued interest from households with larger budgets.”
emphasis added
This was a smaller YoY increase than the 5.5% reported for February, and the 5.8% YoY increase reported for January.

Journalism's Latest Draft Recasts Ukraine Narrative

Zero Hedge -

Journalism's Latest Draft Recasts Ukraine Narrative

Authored by J. Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics,

Journalism may indeed be the first draft of history but that old chestnut can be misleading. Where it suggests a set-in-stone version of events, that first draft is really an unfolding detective story, revised and rewritten as we dig out better answers to the eternal questions of who, what, when, where, and how.

Two of my colleagues at RealClearInvestigations – Aaron Maté and Paul Sperry – recently recast one of the biggest stories of our time: America’s long, strange, and destructive entanglement with Ukraine.

As with all great investigative journalism, Maté and Sperry draw on a wide range of documents and insider accounts to reveal facts the powers-that-be have tried to conceal. While President Biden and many other leaders from both parties cast Ukraine as a bastion of democracy and a beacon of freedom, Maté and Sperry reveal how a decade of anti-democratic interference by Biden and other U.S. officials has led that country to the brink of destruction while corrupting America’s domestic politics.

Their reporting shows that Ukraine is not an independent democracy but a client state of America which has pushed Ukraine into ever-deepening conflict with Russia. It does not excuse Vladimir Putin’s illegal and murderous invasion of Ukraine in 2022, but it shows the massive escalation in a decade-long proxy war the two powers have been conducting on another nation’s soil.

Although this conflict stretches back decades and even centuries, Maté’s April 30 article starts in 2013. That’s when an uprising known as the Maidan movement was percolating in opposition to Ukraine’s notoriously corrupt president, Viktor Yanukovych, who had delayed signing a trade pact with the European Union because he did not want to alienate Russia.

The Maidan movement was soon co-opted by ultra-nationalist groups, some of whose members “openly sported Nazi insignia.” But many American officials, including then-Vice President Biden, saw it as an opportunity to pull Ukraine from the influence of Russia and to undermine Putin.

High-ranking U.S. officials – including senior State Department official Victoria Nuland and U.S. Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt – actively advised the movement, which staged a coup in 2014 by storming the Ukrainian parliament. Those same American officials were also involved in naming the new government.

Putin immediately moved to counter growing American influence on his border. Just days after the coup, Russia invaded and soon annexed Crimea. Russophile Ukrainians in the eastern Donbas region followed suit. While Putin publicly told the Donbas forces to seek a diplomatic solution to their claims, American officials, including then-CIA Director John Brennan pushed Ukraine’s new government to armed conflict. As Maté wrote, Ukraine then “descended into a full-scale civil war. Thousands were killed and millions displaced in the ensuing conflict.”

As Putin issued threats that eventually turned into war, the U.S. tightened its grip on Ukraine. U.S. officials, including Biden, vetted appointments and dismissals in Kyiv, shaping, Maté reports, “the personnel and policies of subsequent Ukrainian governments, all while expanding its military and intelligence presence in Ukraine via the CIA and NATO.”

Sperry’s April 17 article changes our understanding of one of the most famous and consequential examples of U.S. meddling – Biden’s December 2015 threat to withhold $1 billion in aid if Ukraine did not fire its top prosecutor, Viktor Shokin. It has long been known that Shokin had launched multiple investigations into Burisma Holdings, the corruption-riddled energy giant that was paying Biden’s son Hunter millions of dollars. After Shokin was fired, those probes went away.

After this quid pro quo came to light, the Obama administration said that Biden was just carrying out the policy wishes of our government and its European allies. Sperry’s reporting, however, indicates that the U.S. had no such concerns about Shokin in the months before Biden’s threat: “An Oct. 1, 2015, memo summarizing the recommendation of the Interagency Policy Committee on Ukraine stated, ‘Ukraine has made sufficient progress on its [anti-corruption] reform agenda to justify a third [loan] guarantee.’”

Sperry also reports that one Biden advisor at the time was especially surprised by his boss’s action – Eric Ciaramella. On Jan. 21, 2016, Ambassador Pyatt emailed Ciaramella and other White House aides an article from the Ukrainian press – “U.S. loan guarantee conditional on Shokin’s dismissal.”

“Yikes,” Ciaramella responded. “I don’t recall this [the firing] coming up in our meeting with them,” he said, referring to an earlier White House meeting he hosted with top Ukrainian prosecutors.

The backstory Sperry brought to light would take on new significance three years later, when Ciaramella sparked Donald Trump’s first impeachment by complaining that the president had allegedly tried to condition Ukraine aid on an announcement that it was looking into Biden family corruption in that country – as well as Ukraine’s well documented efforts to interfere in the 2016 election in support of Hillary Clinton.

Sperry’s reporting suggests that the Trump impeachment was part of an effort to cover up Biden’s attempt to shield his family from the law. The strategy might have worked but for a strange stroke of fate, with the surfacing of a laptop Hunter Biden abandoned at a Delaware repair shop that detailed his family’s high-level influence peddling.

As Ukraine – a mid-sized country halfway around the world – played a key role in our 2016 and 2020 elections, so it promises to do the same in 2024. At first glance, its prominence seems amazing. Maté and Sperry, in far greater detail than I have summarized here, help us understand why.

Their dispatches are far from the last word. Future reporting will find still undiscovered facts, providing, one hopes, a clear sense of the past as it becomes history. Their work is also achingly relevant to the president as we witness the carnage in Ukraine. As Maté writes, “In claiming to defend Ukraine from Russian influence, Ukraine was subsumed by American influence” at incalculable cost.

Their reporting also reveals the tangled complexity of human affairs requires a healthy amount of cognitive dissonance. America’s support for Ukraine may be a necessary defense against Putin’s aggression. But it is also a recurrence of our long and now largely disavowed history of promoting regime change for seemingly noble reasons in far-flung corners of the world such as Guatemala, Iran, South Vietnam, Chile, and other places. It is not the role of journalists to resolve this tension, but, as Maté and Sperry have, to detail it without fear or favor, so that others might.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 05:00

Who's Building The Most Solar Energy?

Zero Hedge -

Who's Building The Most Solar Energy?

In 2023, solar energy accounted for three-quarters of renewable capacity additions worldwide. Most of this growth occurred in Asia, the EU, and the U.S., continuing a trend observed over the past decade.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti illustrates the rise in installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in China, the EU, and the U.S. between 2010 and 2022, measured in gigawatts (GW). Bruegel compiled the data..

Chinese Dominance

As of 2022, China’s total installed capacity stands at 393 GW, nearly double that of the EU’s 205 GW and surpassing the USA’s total of 113 GW by more than threefold in absolute terms.

Since 2017, China has shown a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 25% in installed PV capacity, while the USA has seen a CAGR of 21%, and the EU of 16%.

Additionally, China dominates the production of solar power components, currently controlling around 80% of the world’s solar panel supply chain.

In 2022, China’s solar industry employed 2.76 million individuals, with manufacturing roles representing approximately 1.8 million and the remaining 918,000 jobs in construction, installation, and operations and maintenance.

The EU industry employed 648,000 individuals, while the U.S. reached 264,000 jobs.

According to the IEA, China accounts for almost 60% of new renewable capacity expected to become operational globally by 2028.

Despite the phasing out of national subsidies in 2020 and 2021, deployment of solar PV in China is accelerating. The country is expected to reach its national 2030 target for wind and solar PV installations in 2024, six years ahead of schedule.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 04:15

Systematic Review Reveals Many COVID-19 Vaccine Recipients Experienced New-Onset Psychosis

Zero Hedge -

Systematic Review Reveals Many COVID-19 Vaccine Recipients Experienced New-Onset Psychosis

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Individuals who took COVID-19 vaccines were found to have later suffered from psychosis, with Pfizer and AstraZeneca shots linked to most of the cases.

A 1-year-old child receives a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination in Seattle, Wash., on June 21, 2022. (David Ryder/Getty Images)

The peer-reviewed systemic review, published in the Frontiers in Psychiatry journal on April 12, examined cases of new-onset psychosis among people who took the vaccines. Psychosis refers to symptoms that occur when an individual has difficulty differentiating between reality and fantasy, with hallucinations and delusions being two key types. The review looked at 21 articles describing 24 cases of psychosis symptoms following vaccination. The researchers concluded that “data suggest a potential link between young age, mRNA, and viral vector vaccines with new-onset psychosis within 7 days post-vaccination.”

Collecting data on vaccine-related psychiatric effects is crucial for prevention, and an algorithm for monitoring and treating mental health reactions post-vaccination is necessary for comprehensive management.”

Out of the 24 cases, 13 were female. The median age of participants was 36 years. Twenty-two patients (91.2 percent) had no specific history of somatic illness and comorbidities.

In 33.3 percent of the cases, administration of the Pfizer mRNA vaccine “potentially induced adverse psychiatric events,” the study said. The viral vector AstraZeneca vaccine was linked to psychotic symptoms in 25 percent of cases.

In 45.8 percent of incidences, psychotic symptoms were reported after the first shot and in fifty percent after the second dose.

“Almost all reviewed cases (95.8 percent) presented with psychotic symptoms, such as hallucinations (visual, auditory, olfactory, and tactile) and delusions (mostly persecutory and delusions of reference).”

The most common form of hallucination was auditory, experienced in 54.2 percent of the cases, while visual hallucinations were experienced by 12.5 percent of patients.

“Motor disturbances, such as increased or decreased motor activity and bizarre behavior, were mentioned in 83.3 percent of cases. In 3 (12.5 percent) cases, a suicidal attempt was described.”

The psychotic symptoms mostly lasted for a period of one and two months.

The patients were treated using various methods including antipsychotics and steroids, but only 12 out of the 24 made a full recovery. The remaining suffered from “residual symptoms such as decreased emotional expressions, low affect, or residual psychotic symptoms.”

In one case, the patient reported a positive COVID-19 test result. “Previous studies have shown that individuals with documented comorbidities and a history of COVID-19 infection exhibit a statistically significant increase in adverse events following vaccination,” the study noted.

Researchers speculated that inflammatory conditions following vaccination may be a reason behind the psychosis. The study found elevated C-reactive protein levels and mild to moderate leukocytosis—high white blood cell count—as the most common blood abnormalities. Both conditions have links with inflammation.

Another hypothesis suggested in the study was that post-vaccination psychosis could suggest a manifestation of autoimmune anti-NMDA encephalitis, a condition in which the immune system targets the brain neurons by mistake and causes inflammation.

Researchers noted that instances of anti-NMDA encephalitis have been repeatedly reported after vaccinations against infections like influenza, pertussis, yellow fever, and typhus.

“Considering the potential link between post-vaccination psychosis and autoimmune anti-NMDA encephalitis, it is advisable to consider immunological screening in individuals presenting psychiatric symptoms post-COVID-19 vaccination.”

A third possible reason suggested in the study is that the various speculations and uncertainties regarding the safety of COVID-19 vaccines could lead to people experiencing “significant stress,” which could end up triggering the development of psychiatric reactions.

The authors received financial support for the review, with the article-processing charge funded by Riga Stradins University, Latvia. Researchers declared no conflicts of interest in the study.

Post-Vax Psychosis Cases

Episodes of psychosis after taking COVID-19 shots have been detailed in several case studies. In one instance, a 15-year-old boy from Taiwan was sent to hospital two days after taking the second Pfizer shot. He was screaming and exhibiting agitation and uncontrollable limb stretching.

Other bizarre behaviors included sitting up and lying down frequently. The child was prescribed antipsychotics yet his behaviors continued to persist after being discharged for more than a month.

The doctors then put the boy under a steroid regimen, which is anti-inflammatory and helps calm down an overactive immune system. His symptoms then improved.

In another case from Brazil, a woman in her 30s, who was previously healthy, developed refractory psychosis within 24 hours of taking an mRNA COVID-19 shot. The woman had disorganized thoughts, was aggressive, and believed she was being persecuted at the hospital.

Even though she was treated with mood stabilizers and antipsychotics, her behavior showed improvements only after four months of hospitalization. However, her psychosis continued.

A May 2022 review described the case of an 18-year-old woman who developed psychotic symptoms on the same day she took the first dose of AstraZeneca vaccine.

Symptoms started few hours after the vaccination with irrelevant talk. Over the next three days, it progressed to irritability, delusions of persecution and reference, and visual hallucinations.”

Another case study detailed the situation of a 45-year-old woman with no family history or personal history of mental disorders who ended up developing psychosis a month after she received a COVID vaccine. She quit her 18-year-old job abruptly and displayed erratic behaviors.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 03:30

These Were The Deadliest Countries For Journalists In 2023

Zero Hedge -

These Were The Deadliest Countries For Journalists In 2023

50 media professionals were killed due to their journalistic activities in 2023, according to the Reporters Without Borders (RSF) database.

As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, by far the deadliest place for journalists last year was in the Palestinian territories, where 16 deaths were counted in just the last three months of the year.

 The Deadliest Countries for Journalists in 2023 | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Following some way behind were Mexico with four deaths reported there in 2023, three in Afghanistan, three in Bangladesh, three in Lebanon, and two deaths in Cameroon, Ukraine and the Philippines, respectively.

A single journalist was also killed in each of the following countries: Albania, China, Colombia, Honduras, India, Lesotho, Mali, Mozambique, Paraguay, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and the United States. Meanwhile, 109 people were listed as having “disappeared” last year, with the highest numbers recorded in Mexico (34), Syria (9), Russia (6), Pakistan (6), the Democratic Republic of Congo (5) and Kosovo (5).

It is important to note here that media professionals’ deaths are only listed here if confirmed by the RSF as being linked to their journalistic work. This explains why these figures seem low and that they are subject to change as fact-checking is carried out.

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 02:45

Majority Of Germans Reject Muslim Immigration, Express Fear Of Becoming A "Minority In Germany"

Zero Hedge -

Majority Of Germans Reject Muslim Immigration, Express Fear Of Becoming A "Minority In Germany"

Authored by John Cody via ReMix News,

Rejection of immigrants from Islamic countries has increased in Germany, according to the latest Insa poll commissioned by the Nius media group.

The most recent survey shows an absolute majority of 52 percent rather agree with the statement that “Germany should generally no longer accept refugees from Islamic countries”. Only 34 percent say “disagree” or “tend to disagree” with this statement.

There is even greater agreement with the statement that “in certain areas of my town or village, I have the feeling that I am no longer in Germany.” According to the poll, 57 percent agree with the statement, while 36 percent do not share this feeling.

The poll further shows that 54 percent of respondents said they were “afraid that Germans will become a minority in Germany.” On the other hand, 37 percent said they were not concerned.

A relative majority supports the theory behind the Great Replacement, which the domestic intelligence agency the Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) classifies as a “right-wing extremist” viewpoint.

According to the poll, 45 percent of respondents agree with the statement: “I believe that Europeans are gradually being replaced by immigrants from Africa and the Middle East.”

A smaller number of people, 41 percent, reject this statement.

Racism against Whites

Two-thirds of Germans (65 percent) agree with the statement that there is “racism against Whites” in Germany, while only a small minority of 22 percent think this is not true.

A strong majority also believe integration has not worked, with 58 percent saying “no” to the question of whether “migrants have largely integrated well in Germany.” Only 29 percent of respondents say migrants have integrated well.

Immigrants burden the German school system

An overwhelming majority of Germans agree with the statement that “the current migration is overburdening the German school system.” The results show that 75 percent, or three-quarters, agree with this statement, while 22 percent say they do not see a problem.

Remix News has previously reported on the problems facing the country’s school system, which is increasingly made up of an immigrant population, and in some cities, even constitutes the majority of students. Teachers and principals face assault, classroom overcrowding, language difficulties, and aggressive clashes between minority groups.

The survey follows a series of polls that show Germans are rapidly souring on mass immigration. Currently, the most popular party among German youth is the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) party while the AfD is now the second most popular party in the country, even if the party’s overall support has seen a slight drop of between 3 to 4 points over the last three to four months.

Just this week, approximately 1,000 Muslims belonging to a radical pro-Sharia group marched in Hamburg to call for a caliphate in Germany, sparking national headlines and a sharp debate about the country’s growing Muslim population. Last month, it was reported that the share of foreigners committing crimes in the country had hit a record high of 41 percent.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 05/07/2024 - 02:00

San Diego Sues CNC Milling Technologists, Alleging They're Flouting California ‘Ghost Gun’ Laws

Zero Hedge -

San Diego Sues CNC Milling Technologists, Alleging They're Flouting California ‘Ghost Gun’ Laws

Authored by Ryan Morgan via The Epoch Times,

The San Diego County government is suing the manufacturer of a computer numerical control (CNC) machine, alleging that it is being used to manufacture unserialized firearms parts.

The lawsuit, filed on behalf of the county by the gun-control legal advocacy group Giffords Law Center, alleges the “Coast Runner” CNC machine, marketed by Coast Runner Industries, Inc., is simply a rebrand of the “Ghost Gunner” CNC machine previously developed and marketed by Defense Distributed and Ghost Gunner Inc.

Gun rights activist and technologist Cody Wilson has been working for years against gun control efforts by expanding access to the tools necessary to produce firearms at home. He has used his non-profit, Defense Distributed, as a platform to pioneer technological advancements in the manufacture of firearms using both 3D-printing and CNC technology.

Individuals are not prohibited under federal rules and regulations from producing firearms for their personal use, but gun control proponents in several states have sought to prevent the proliferation of unserialized privately-made firearms, which they’ve referred to as “ghost guns.”

While gun control advocates have attempted to stop the spread of “ghost guns,” Mr. Wilson and Defense Distributed have worked to ensure home manufacturing of firearms remains accessible with the development of its “Ghost Gunner” line of CNC machines.

California Law and CNC Machines

In 2022, the Democrat-supermajority California legislature passed legislation that makes it unlawful to sell or transfer any “CNC milling machine that has the sole or primary function of manufacturing firearms to any person in this state, other than a federally licensed firearms manufacturer or importer.”

Following the passage of the 2022 law, the Ghost Gunner sales website states, “Ghost Gunner CNC machines are not currently available to non-FFL California customers.” But after Defense Distributed and Ghost Gunner restricted sales of its machines in California, a new company called Coast Runner emerged, marketing a similar CNC machine.

The new lawsuit names Coast Runner Industries Inc., Ghost Runner Inc., and Defense Distributed as defendants.

“The ‘Coast Runner’ and the ‘Ghost Gunner’ share more than just similar rhyming names. The ‘Coast Runner’ is in fact the Ghost Gunner with a new coat of paint,” the San Diego County lawsuit states.

It has the same internal designs, the same features, and is being marketed for the same purpose: the illegal production of untraceable ghost guns. Moreover, it is being sold and marketed by the same company, as public records show that Coast Runner Industries, Inc. is merely an alter ego of Ghost Gunner Inc. and Defense Distributed.”

A marketing video for the latest iteration of the “Ghost Gunner” CNC machine shows it being used for what appear to be firearm frames and receivers, and the sales website for the machine makes clear that it is “optimized for machining AR-15 and AK-47 receivers.” By contrast, marketing videos and materials for the “Coast Runner” emphasize its cutting power and precision.

San Diego County’s legal complaint notes that the “Coast Runner” made an appearance earlier this year at the Shooting, Hunting, and Outdoor Trade (SHOT) show, a trade show hosted by the National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF).

The lawsuit also notes that individuals who previously worked with Ghost Gunner and Defense Distributed have gone on to work with Coast Runner Inc.

Defendants flout California law with too-cute-by-half sales and marketing tactics. The Coast Runner is not a joke-it is an illegal device designed, marketed, and sold to enable its users to make firearms and to violate California’s gun violence prevention laws,” the complaint states.

“Plaintiff brings this suit to put an end to Defendants’ flagrant violations of California law and to seek remedy for the harm Defendants have caused and are continuing to cause in California.”

California ‘Doesn’t Have the Nerve to Ban CNC’: Wilson

The legal complaint seeks a judgment finding all defendants to be in violation of California law and seeks a civil penalty of as much as $25,000 per alleged violation of the California law prohibiting sales of CNC machines for firearms manufacturing, along with an award of “reasonable damages” to the state.

Mr. Wilson insisted Defense Distributed remains in compliance with California law.

“Defense Distributed follows California law with great effort,” he told NTD News in an emailed statement.

“The state doesn’t have the nerve to ban CNC, so they ban speech about the technology.”

Mr. Wilson declined to offer further comment on the lawsuit as he and his legal team prepare to respond.

NTD News also contacted Coast Runner for comment, but did not receive a response by press time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/06/2024 - 23:40

These Are The 20 Countries Most Indebted To China

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These Are The 20 Countries Most Indebted To China

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu ranked the top 20 countries by their amount of debt to China. These figures are as of 2022, and come from the World Bank (accessed via Yahoo Finance).

This dataset highlights Pakistan and Angola as having the largest debts to China by a wide margin. Both countries have taken billions in loans from China for various infrastructure and energy projects.

Critically, both countries have also struggled to manage their debt burdens. In February 2024, China extended the maturity of a $2 billion loan to Pakistan.

Soon after in March 2024, Angola negotiated a lower monthly debt payment with its biggest Chinese creditor, China Development Bank (CDB).

Could China be in Trouble?

China has provided developing countries with over $1 trillion in committed funding through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a massive economic development project aimed at enhancing trade between China and countries across Asia, Africa, and Europe.

Many believe that this lending spree could be an issue in the near future.

According to a 2023 report by AidData, 80% of these loans involve countries in financial distress, raising concerns about whether participating nations will ever be able to repay their debts.

While China claims the BRI is a driver of global development, critics in the West have long warned that the BRI employs debt-trap diplomacy, a tactic where one country uses loans to gain influence over another.

Editor’s note: The debt shown in this visualization focuses only on direct external debt, and does not include publicly-traded, liquid, debt securities like bonds. Furthermore, it’s worth noting the World Bank data excludes some countries with data accuracy or reporting issues, such as Venezuela.

If you enjoyed this post, check out our breakdown of $97 trillion in global government debt.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/06/2024 - 23:20

McMaken: The FBI And CIA Are Enemies Of The American People

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McMaken: The FBI And CIA Are Enemies Of The American People

Authored by Ryan McMaken via The Mises Institute,

Joe Rogan and Tucker Carlson sat down for a three-hour-plus discussion on the Joe Rogan Show last week, covering everything from UFOs, to religion and artificial intelligence. But perhaps the most important topic they covered was the insidious and dangerous role played by the US regime’s intelligence agencies in America. 

Specifically, Carlson suggested the CIA continues to lobby for keeping the JFK files secret, possibly because the CIA had a role in the assassination. Tucker also brought up how the FBI’s second-in-command was responsible for taking down Richard Nixon. Carlson described how intelligence agencies hold immense power within Congress because members of Congress—who are generally disreputable people with many secrets—are terrified of being blackmailed. After all, in a post-Patriot Act world of nearly unrestrained spying by the US regime, there is no privacy in America. 

I’ll let you, dear readers, listen to the full interview and make up your mind for yourselves as to the details of the discussion. 

What I want to highlight here, however, is how remarkable it is that two major media figures—Rogan and Carlson—are announcing to their millions of listeners and readers that organizations like the CIA and the FBI are despicable agencies committed to undermining the legal and constitutional institutions of the United States. 

This is long overdue. 

Deep-state agencies like the CIA and the FBI have for far too long been considered reputable organizations just trying to “keep us safe” or somehow defend the United States from alleged foreign threats. Conservatives have long been among the worst offenders. Libertarians know this well, and have observed for decades the breed of “small-government” conservatives who one minute claim “the government can’t do anything right” and then the next minute simp for “heroic” CIA and FBI agents. People such as these have long checked their critical thinking skills at the door as soon as the discussion turns to the regime’s spy agencies—or the Pentagon, for that matter. This is not to say that Leftists are guiltless on this. While historically it was the Left that actually made some efforts to expose intelligence agencies and their crimes in the 1970s, that is now ancient history. The Left in 2024 has rarely met a regime spook it didn’t like. This was made explicit last month when Adam Westbrook and Lindsey Crouse declared in The New York Times that “the Deep State is actually kind of awesome.” 

The job of opposing these contemptible enemies of freedom at America’s intelligence agencies—especially the FBI and CIA and NSA—falls to the minority of Americans who actually care about law and human rights enough to seek true restraints on regime power. Those of us in this minority must never miss an opportunity to disparage, doubt, question, and generally express loathing for these organizations and for every single agent and employee at these agencies who collects a taxpayer-funded salary. 

A Danger for Many Decades 

Since at least the early 1960s, many have understood that the post-war intelligence agencies have posed an especially dangerous threat to the people of the United States. For example, exactly one month after Kennedy’s assassination—surely, just a coincidence!—former president Harry Truman expressed alarm about the CIA’s meddling in domestic affairs. He wrote in The Washington Post: “For some time I have been disturbed by the way CIA has been diverted from its original assignment. It has become an operational and at times a policy-making arm of the Government. This has led to trouble and may have compounded our difficulties in several explosive areas. ...I never had any thought that when I set up the CIA that it would be injected into peacetime cloak and dagger operations.”

Then as now, however, The Washington Post was an arm of the deep state and the editor buried Truman’s op-ed on Page A11. The CIA was outraged enough by the column, however, that CIA director Allen Dulles lied and claimed that Truman had been “quite astounded“ when he saw his own article and that the whole thing was really the work of a Truman aide.

This bizarre attempt by CIA operative to “retract” Truman’s article was nonetheless contradicted by Truman himself who reiterated in a 1964 letter that Truman had only intended the CIA to be an informational service for the president, and that “[I]t was not intended to operate as an international agency engaged in strange activities.” Truman would later tell an interviewer that “[I]f I’d known what was going to happen, I never would have [created the CIA.]”1 

Of course, Truman may have known about many of the CIA’s “strange activities” by the late 1950s, such as MKULTRA, and related “mind control” experiments with LSD and other drugs. The CIA was known to drug the agency’s victims against their will, such as seven black inmates in Kentucky who were were fed “’double, triple and quadruple’ doses of LSD for 77 straight days.” One might also mention the very suspicious case of Frank Olson, a bioweapons expert who was given LSD by CIA agents without his knowledge. Olson later “fell” to his death from a hotel window in 1953. The agency lied about drugging Olson for 22 years. 

The CIA faced some scrutiny in the wake of the Vietnam war as the Left began to rein in the deep state which had spent years attempting to destroy American opponents of the war through a variety of dirty tricks. Yet, the agency had hardly been “reformed” by the time the US’s “war on terror” was launched in late 2001. The CIA returned to its illegal medical torture—assuming it had ever stopped—with new medical experiments on regime prisoners. Documents uncovered by the ACLU have shown that CIA doctors are still used to provide a veneer of scientific legitimacy to CIA torture programs. In the age of vaccine passports, this alliance between doctors and the CIA should alarm any defender of human rights. 

In spite of all this, the CIA continues to fail spectacularly at its original mission of collecting useful information. The CIA failed to see the Iranian Revolution coming. The CIA was clueless about Soviet Missiles shipped to Cuba in 1962. The CIA believed the Soviet Union was an economic powerhouse in the 1980s. And, of course, the CIA let 9/11 happen right under its nose

Given all this, even conservative stalwarts have seen the light on the CIA in recent years. The late Angelo Codevilla, for example, penned a 2020 article calling for “breaking up” the CIA. The CIA, Codevilla notes, is now so “ideologically partisan,” so “obsolete,” and its record of failure so undeniable, that the agency is now “inherently dangerous and low-value.” 

End the FBI

The CIA isn’t alone in its war on American freedom and decency, however. The FBI is almost equally dangerous, which is why Codevilla also calls for the FBI to be “restricted to law enforcement.” 

Unknown to many Americans, the FBI doesn’t even consider itself to be a law enforcement agency anymore. The FBI is now a “national security” agency, and that means the FBI is an arm of the American spy regime. This, of course, is why the Department of Justice can now be used for blatantly political purposes such as when the FBI spied on candidate Donald Trump in 2016

Here at mises.org, we’ve already reported on the mixture of abuse and incompetence that characterizes the FBI. The FBI expends countless hours tracking down harmless “enemies” of the regime—such as little old ladies prosecuted for the January 6 riot—while ignoring real criminals like Larry Nassar. Nor surprisingly, local police will tell you it’s the state and local police who do the real work of tracking down real criminals, and then the FBI swoops in to take the credit. 

Moreover, the history of the FBI lends substantial plausibility to Tucker Carlson’s claim that intelligence agencies are in the business of blackmailing members of Congress. This is a known tactic employed by J. Edgar Hoover during this 48-year reign at the FBI. Hoover, of course, was lauded for decades as a hero, but in reality, he was, in the words of historian Beverly Gage, a “one-dimensional tyrant and backroom schemer who strong-armed the rest of the country into submission...the most influential federal appointee of the twentieth century.” Hoover and his army of compliant FBI agents spied on anyone and everyone—especially elected officials and other public figures—who might be useful as a target for blackmail.

So, what to do with these agencies? 

There is nothing that these agencies do that could justify their continued existence. Both agencies—neither of which in their present forms are authorized among the enumerated powers of the US constitution—were sold to the taxpayers as agencies to be used only against hardened criminals and foreign dictators. Today, these organizations spend their time exploiting the taxpayers for ever larger budgets, for ever more power to spy on Americans, and new ways to trick those same Americans into supporting the regime’s latest wars. 

They are, simply put, the regime’s secret police, devoted to building the regime’s power. One answer is to eviscerate their budgets, repeal their enabling legislation, and encourage aggressive lawfare against the regime in retribution for these agencies’ many crimes. That’s probably a best-case scenario. Other scenarios likely require the bankruptcy of the regime, or perhaps its dissolution. That is likely to come with substantial and negative economic effects in the short term. Unfortunately, many Americans are still enthralled to these organizations thanks to relentless state propaganda that tells us this American version of the KGB exists for our own good.  Abolition will clearly take time. Now is a good time to start.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/06/2024 - 23:00

Amidst Staffing Shortage, Merced County's Sheriff Is Often Sole Officer To Respond To Calls

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Amidst Staffing Shortage, Merced County's Sheriff Is Often Sole Officer To Respond To Calls

Merced County California's Sheriff is officially sounding the warning bells.

Sheriff Vern Warnke, who has worked in the county's office for 45 years, is officially declaring a public safety crisis, according to a new report from Yahoo and the LA Times. Why? Because he's often finding himself the only person available to respond to calls.

In a recent incident, a woman reported a domestic dispute involving her armed husband. With no deputies nearby, Warnke, identifiable by his cowboy hat and badge, intervened and successfully defused the situation.

“We had nobody to send, and I, as the sheriff, I'm still a cop, I still love what I do. But we're at that point when the sheriff and administration are having to take calls.”

Warnke has recently expressed deep concern over the rising number of deputy vacancies. In a recent video message, he lamented the staffing shortage, fearing it could jeopardize public safety, urging residents to recognize the severity of the situation.

He said in the message: “I'm fighting for the sheriff's office’s life right now. That means I'm fighting for your public safety. So folks, it's bad."

He continued: “Our correctional bureaus are understaffed and overworked. Our patrol deputies are understaffed and overworked. Our communication center with the dispatchers — it could be to the point when you dial 911, we have nobody who can answer it. And that's not a joke. It's not a threat. It's a fact.”

The report notes that the Merced sheriff's office, usually staffed with 100 deputies for patrols, currently has 20 vacancies, while 23 custodial deputy positions out of 108 remain unfilled. The investigative unit, intended for 18 members, now operates with only eight, and the dispatch team has four vacancies out of 13 staff.

Despite recent pleas to the county Board of Supervisors for increased budget and control over fund allocation, Warnke's requests have been ignored.

With just four deputies patrolling nearly 2,000 square miles during the day, and dispatch shifts covered by a lieutenant and two sergeants, the office faces severe understaffing. Colleagues are often asked to work overtime beyond their 12-hour shifts, with one dispatcher clocking over 700 hours of overtime in a year.

California's law enforcement struggle is widespread, with patrol officer numbers per 100,000 residents at their lowest since 1991, according to a January report. Many cities, including Alameda and San Francisco, have resorted to hefty enlistment bonuses and pay raises to attract and retain officers. Even Los Angeles, with increased officer pay and bonuses, still grapples with vacancies.

Smaller municipalities offer incentives like gym memberships and dry-cleaning services, but rural counties lack the resources for such incentives. Tehama County suspended daytime patrols in 2022 due to staff shortages.

Despite its relatively larger budget, Merced County struggles to retain deputies, losing them to neighboring counties with higher pay. Despite offering $10,000 signing bonuses, Merced's top deputies earn less than those in neighboring counties, creating a cycle of turnover. Warnke expressed frustration with the county's short-term fixes and lack of long-term planning, highlighting persistent staffing issues despite past raises.

Tyler Durden Mon, 05/06/2024 - 22:40

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