Sheriff’s Deputy Fired Over Jan. 6 Secures Nearly $400,000 In Settlement

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Roxanne Mathai in a file photograph. (Courtesy of Roxanne Mathai)

A sheriff’s deputy fired for protesting in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, has secured a large settlement from Bexar County in Texas.

Roxanne Mathai, a lieutenant with the Bexar County Sheriff’s Office (BCSO) at the time she traveled to Washington, will receive $395,000 in a settlement reached after she sued her former employer, the parties in the case told The Epoch Times.

“We’re very pleased with the resolution,” Mark Anthony Sanchez, an attorney representing Ms. Mathai, told The Epoch Times. He said the settlement was “nothing short of vindication for Roxanne.”

“I am grateful for the unwavering support of my attorney ... and the countless individuals who stood by me throughout this challenging ordeal,” Ms. Mathai said in a statement. “This settlement not only provides closure for me personally but also sends a powerful message that wrongful termination will not be tolerated.”

Monica Ramos, a spokeswoman for Bexar County, told The Epoch Times in an email that the county’s insurer decided to settle.

“Bexar County continues to deny that any acts of discrimination or retaliation occurred,” Ms. Ramos said. “Nothing about the insurer’s decision to settle both claims can be construed as an admission of any wrongdoing or liability by Bexar County, which is expressly denied.”

Ms. Mathai posted images and videos on Jan. 6, 2021, from a rally for then-President Donald Trump in Washington, held just before people began breaching the U.S. Capitol. Ms. Mathai went over to the building after the rally. She included captions in her posts, such as “Today has been amazing!”

Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar said a day later that he was aware of the materials and that he intended to make sure Ms. Mathai never entered a sheriff’s office building again.

He said that Ms. Mathai was allowed to exercise her First Amendment rights but should have left once crimes began being committed.

There is no indication Ms. Mathai entered the Capitol and she has not been charged. She has said she left around 3 p.m., that she could not see any doors or windows from her position, and that she saw people climbing the walls at the Capitol but didn’t think that was illegal.

The sheriff’s office discharged Ms. Mathai in June 2021 after officials determined she failed to report crimes and engaged in conduct unbecoming of an officer, according to documents reviewed by The Epoch Times.

An arbitrator upheld the termination, finding in part that while near the Capitol she “knew or should have known she was observing illegal activity (trespass, barricades down, people climbing walls and scaffolding); that tear gas in the area and later a curfew were signs of trouble; that her social media would disseminate her pictures, video and comments to the public; and, that as an officer with the Bexar County Sheriff’s Office the last place she should be or remain or come back to was the scene of this so-called ‘rally.’”

Ms. Mathai sued in 2022, alleging violations of her constitutional rights. She noted she had received permission from a superior to attend the pro-Trump rally and described herself as a “law-abiding citizen” who wanted to attend a peaceful event in support of the president.

Ms. Mathai said she recorded video footage and photographs because she believed she “was a witness to history” and wanted to “create a record for posterity,” according to the lawsuit.

“Ms. Mathai proudly and unapologetically voiced and displayed her lawful and constitutionally protected support of President Trump in person and through social media,” it stated.

The suit said Ms. Mathai was “shocked and appalled” when she returned to her hotel room on Jan. 6 and watched what was unfolding at the Capitol.

Bexar County is in southern Texas and includes San Antonio.

An attempt in 2023 by Bexar County officials to have the case thrown out was rejected by U.S. District Judge Xavier Rodriguez, who was overseeing the case. He ruled that Ms. Mathai did not waive her rights to bring a federal claim.

The Bexar County Commissioners Court in April approved a $100,000 payment to an outside insurance carrier to allow the carrier to take over the defense in the case. That was the deductible required under the insurance policy, so the insurer is covering the remainder of the settlement, according to the county.

The parties entered a stipulation of dismissal in federal court and Judge Rodriguez dismissed it on Tuesday.

“The termination in this case was done within policy and was upheld by an arbitrator. The decision to issue a settlement was made outside the BCSO,” Mr. Salazar, the sheriff, told The Epoch Times in an email. “There was no wrongdoing on the part of the administration, and I stand by our actions.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 19:05

Biden Unveils Latest $400M Package For Ukraine, But US Artillery Shells Already Depleted 

The Biden administration on Friday announced its third tranche of new aid for Ukraine since President Biden signed into effect Congress' $95 billion foreign aid package, which includes $60 billion total funding for Ukraine.

This newest authorized package is for $400 million and is to include High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, Patriot missiles, and various munitions including anti-aircraft and anti-tank ammo, and armored vehicles like Bradleys.

"It will also provide a number of coastal and riverine patrol boats, trailers, demolition munitions, high-speed anti-radiation missiles, protective gear, spare parts and other weapons and equipment," according to further details in the Associated Press. "The weapons are being sent through presidential drawdown authority, which pulls systems and munitions from existing U.S. stockpiles so they can go quickly to the war front."

Anadolu via Getty Images

It's as yet unclear if this particular package will include the longer range Army Tactical Missile System, which can hit targets up to 190 miles away. Moscow has been warning the West that parties supplying Ukraine with weapons used against Russian territory will be seen as direct participants in the war.

Ironically this new $400 million package has been announced the very same day that Russia has launched a rare, major cross-border offensive into the Kharkiv region, seeking to establish a 'buffer zone' some 10km deep inside Ukraine territory, ostensibly to prevent cross-border shelling from harming Russian citizens and to more easily intercept threats like drones.

Currently, Ukrainian soldiers are resorting to literally trying to find leftover, unexploded artillery shells scattered in the ground at prior battle sites. The Wall Street Journal has underscored this severe lack of ammo along Ukraine's front lines in writing that "Kyiv’s ammunition shortage is so acute that a soldier who hunts for Russian shells—and makes his own bombs—has become an important supplier for some units." 

On Thursday, David Sacks pointed to the significant depletion in artillery shell production in the US as a sign that Kiev's external backers are growing weaker, not stronger amid the continued escalation...

I warned that America didn’t produce enough artillery shells to supply both Ukraine and Israel; now Biden has cut off Israel. Some of those most outraged were strong advocates for giving Ukraine everything it wanted. They have no one to blame but themselves for depleting… https://t.co/uZvDSun7nb

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) May 9, 2024

"As the shortage of artillery shells has grown more acute in recent weeks, brigades have started sending their de-miners to Polyukhovich, hoping he’ll teach them how to find more ammunition," the report said.

"It is dangerous work. Several months ago, while Polyukhovich was out, his team tried to deactivate an antipersonnel mine, which is more sensitive than the antitank mines they normally work with," WSJ detailed. "It went off, killing one of them and pockmarking the side of Polyukhovich’s house."

* * *

Meanwhile, a shocking stat and reminder that the proxy war in Ukraine has in the end weakened America's ability to defend itself...

Even if the Ukraine War ended tomorrow, it would take over 5 years to replenish our stockpiles of artillery shells, Javelins and Stingers. But Biden sees no tradeoffs between helping Ukraine and Israel. And he wants to rattle the saber against China while he’s at it. pic.twitter.com/4xv0aNQWLi

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) October 25, 2023

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 18:35

"The Jobs Market Is Weakening, Inflation Has Picked Up And Growth Unexpectedly Slowed"

By Rabobank

The Bank of England left the Bank Rate unchanged at 5.25% yesterday, but the clear signal from the record of votes, and Governor Bailey, is that cuts aren’t far away. This time around the vote split 7-2 in favour of holding (previously 8-1), with arch-dove Dhingra being joined by former hawk Ramsden in plumping for a cut.

The BOE’s Monetary Policy Report lowered inflation forecasts, but the policy Summary warned on uncertainties around the persistence of high services inflation and the spotty ONS labour market data. Governor Bailey commented that a cut in June is “neither ruled out nor a fait accompli”, while our own BOE watcher Stefan Koopman favors an August cut, owing to sticky services inflation and uncertainties around the impact of the recent 9.8% minimum wage decision.

So, the Bank of England is now in a similar place to the ECB, and a similar place to where the Fed was earlier in the year: cuts are coming, we just need to see some more data to be assured on the timing. In spending so much time talking about cutting rates before actually cutting them, central bankers are doing their best Abe Lincoln impersonation: “give me six hours to chop down a tree, and I will spend the first four sharpening the axe.”

A dovish Bank of England follows Sweden’s Rijksbank delivering a 25bps cut earlier in the week (the first in 16 years) and a 25bps cut from the Brazilian central bank yesterday (though four Board members wanted to cut by 50). The RBA doved-it-up on Tuesday by keeping the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% and maintaining their neutral bias - despite a big upside surprise in inflation in Q1 and half-percentage point upward revisions to their inflation forecasts for the remainder of this year. We think the RBA’s ‘hold and hope’ strategy will ultimately get waylaid by economic reality and that they will end up hiking twice more this year, albeit reluctantly.

Banxico might have been the closest thing to a hawkish central bank this week. They opted to pause the cutting cycle that was initiated in March, while revising inflation forecasts substantially higher and warning of persistence in inflationary shocks. USDMXN dropped below 16.80 following the meeting despite small gains in the DXY index. Nevertheless, Rabobank’s Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz are expecting Banxico’s policy rate to continue falling later in the year, ultimately hitting 10% by Christmas.

Over in the United States we saw a continuation of the theme established by a soft non-farm payrolls report last Friday that the US jobs market may be beginning to crack. Initial jobless claims this week printed at 231,000, well up on the expected 212,000 and last week’s upwardly-revised 209,000. This follows a recent run of soft data, including the lacklustre payrolls report, below expectations JOLTS job openings, and ISM reports showing employment contracting for both the manufacturing and services sectors.

While the labor market is starting to look creaky, the prices paid components of those ISM reports pumped higher. This chimes nicely with a strong run of PCE and CPI data, which we might see continued next week when we get the April PPI and CPI reports for the United States. Could another upside surprise be on the cards there? [ZH: a downside surprise is far more likely]

So, the jobs market looks to be weakening, inflation has picked up and growth unexpectedly slowed to just 1.6% annualized in Q1 figures reported the week before last. Nevertheless, Jay Powell isn’t bothered. He recently told reporters that he couldn’t see the ‘stag’ or the ‘flation’ in the economy at the moment.

The BOE and the ECB might be channelling one former President in softening us up for rate cuts, but in light of the recent run of data it stretches credulity to suggest that Powell is channelling another: “Father, I cannot tell a lie...”

While the economic picture appears to be softening in North America, in Europe things seemed to turn for the better this week. PMIs indicated a faster rate of expansion for Spain, France and Germany, and Italian industry also remains in expansion (albeit at a slightly reduced rate). German factory orders remained dreadful, but both imports and exports showed unexpected strength. French wage growth accelerated and German industrial production was less bad than feared. All of this follows on from stronger than expected Q1 growth figures for the Eurozone last week.

Europe might be looking better, but it isn’t time to break out the bunting just yet. Growth is still weak, and it would be a brave call to suggest that inflation has been routed – even if it may be in retreat at the moment. There’s also plenty of potential for further shocks. Just this morning we saw news that Joe Biden plans to impose tariffs on Chinese EVs and other strategic sectors as early as next week. Such moves raise the risk of China dumping those products into other markets (like Europe), which might prompt action from the Europeans to protect already fragile German industry.

There’s also the issue of the Israel-Hamas (/Hezbollah/Iran) war bubbling away in the background. Brent crude has stabilised around $83-84/bbl after the recent tit-for-tat between Israel and Iran momentarily petered-out, but tensions remain high and the war is moving into a new phase that introduces new potential catalysts for regional potshots.

Israel this week cut off the crossing from Rafah into Egypt as a precursor to a ground offensive. Hamas tried to accept a ceasefire deal that Israel hadn’t offered. Joe Biden wound-back long running bipartisan support of Israel by threatening to halt shipments of offensive weapons if Israel pushes into Rafah. That latter development was almost certainly electorally-driven, with the campus youth vote, and the large Muslim population in Michigan of crucial importance to Biden’s chances of re-election. Netanyahu remains undeterred, declaring that “if we must, we shall fight with our fingernails.”

So, all in all, it was another week where there were plenty of problems that we can point to, but both stocks and bonds went higher (at least as of time of writing). Perhaps there is some truth to an observation a trader once made to me: “bears sound smart, but bulls make money

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 18:05

Hedge Funds That Sold In May Might Now Push Stocks To New Highs

Authored by Simon White. Bloomberg macro strategist,

Hedge funds seem to have taken the old adage about selling in May to heart. From being very long for most of this year, aggregate positioning now looks to have gone short – right as the stock market bounces. Hedge funds that are offside might now chase the market higher through the rest of the month.

We can estimate how hedge funds are positioned in stocks by looking at the beta of hedge-fund indices (in this case HFR’s Macro/CTA index) to the S&P 500. As the chart below shows, it looks like funds are now short the stock market in the aggregate.

We can use the DBi Managed Futures ETF to get a flavor of what CTAs have been doing. As the table below shows, this ETF came out of the S&P in April and started adding to the MSCI EAFE, with its overall developed-market equity position trending lower. As of last week, it is long futures in MSCI EAFE, MSCI EM, oil and gold.

Hedge funds (CTAs and macro funds) now having a short exposure to stocks comes at a time when the good side (for long-only investors at least) of a positive stock-bond correlation is in play – stocks and bonds rising together, as yields trend lower in response to recent weaker economic data. The bear steepening in the yield curve that is typically pernicious for risk assets has given away to a more asset-friendlier bull flattening for now.

With US stocks less than a percent off their all-time highs, there’s a good chance funds who now find themselves offside help push the stock market to a new peak. This would match the previous patterns of a change of stock leadership marking the near-end of a correction.

Nonetheless, even though a new high would likely see some follow-through buying, the bull trend is not going to be as plain sailing as it was.

Liquidity conditions are less conducive to rising risk assets. Reserves and the reverse repo facility (RRP) continue to trend lower. Tapering of quantitative tightening will take some of the edge off, but reserve liquidity will be less buoyant. Furthermore, the government’s interest bill will incrementally eat more reserves and reserve velocity.

Selling in May maybe doesn’t look like a good idea now, but by St Leger’s Day in September, hedge funds who get back in the market might find they have experienced a lot of volatility without a whole lot of upside to compensate.
 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 17:15

Carnival Rides

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

“These agencies are not trusted because they are not trustworthy.” — El Gato Malo on “X”

The miasma of anxiety befogging so many brains in our troubled land begins to lift as every narrative served up by the US fascist intel blob goes annoyingly stale and impotent. The worst media meme — that a vicious officialdom is “defending our democracy” — gets laughed out of the room now when repeated incessantly by such shills as Jen Psaki and Lawrence O’Donnell of MSNBC. Everybody understands they want to “defend our democracy” by cancelling your freedom of speech, pounding you into bankruptcy, and stealing whatever remains of your stuff.

Likewise, everything else: that our doings in Ukraine are a “fight for freedom,” that “white supremacy” lurks just out of sight getting ready to pounce on the “marginized” (who are actually running things, and doing it very badly), that “Joe Biden” turned around the economy, that “voting rights” equals non-citizens getting to vote, that election fraud is a “big lie” (and that the J-6 riot over it was an “insurrection”), and that the Covid vaccines were “safe and effective.”

None of these dishonest persuasions work anymore, and all of the persuasion machinery stands in plain sight like so many nauseating carnival rides. One by one, the rides are flying apart, scattering debris and body parts of the poor slobs who were on the rides all over the fairgrounds. And so, the fear rises in the ones running the carnival. The county sheriff stands by looking to round up the sleazeball carnies with their missing teeth and needle tracks inside their elbows. Before long, they will find themselves in the courtroom. . . .

The vicious officialdom put up the carnival and all of its rides to distract the public from the crimes they committed during and after the 2016 election. Donald Trump’s idle talk about putting Hillary Clinton in jail struck nerves throughout the federal bureaucracy, the halls of Congress, and the strongholds of the Clintons and the Obamas.

The Clintons had literally bought the Democratic Party apparatus under the DNC, using the money they grifted into the Clinton foundation from such operations as the Uranium One deal, the Skolkovo war-tech transfer deal, and the Haiti earthquake relief effort. They were sure that ownership of the DNC guaranteed the election for Hillary. It did guarantee that she would overcome Bernie Sanders’ primary election victories and the delegates that came with them, even after Julian Assange’s Wikileaks release informed the world just how the Clintons bought and paid for the DNC and the whole Philadelphia convention. Call this the birth of the “misinformation” cult, in which everything true was converted into a “big lie.”

The problem was, Hillary lost that election. What a surprise! Buying the convention was not enough, it turned out. Those “deplorables” did the unthinkable: cast enough of their stinky votes in just the right rust belt precincts to elect the Golden Golem of Greatness, who was as surprised as anybody, and really unprepared to cobble together an actual governing administration — in the process of which, Donald J. Trump was completely buffaloed by the outgoing Obama gang. They plotted by the lights of the White House Christmas tree to go after the interloper with all they had, starting with the surgical removal of a most dangerous appointee, National Security Advisor Mike Flynn, who knew all the secrets. . . and from there onto four years of Russia, Russia, Russia. . . .

It’s hardly a mystery anymore how “Joe Biden” got elected. It’s perfectly obvious despite the “big lie” narrative that the 2020 election was stoked with a veritable orgy of ballot fraud and direct election interference by agency rogues, especially the ones leaning hard on Facebook, Twitter, and Google to manipulate what the public actually saw. Don’t believe your lying eyes they told the nation. What is a mystery is why they chose “Joe Biden” to front for the cabal around Barack Obama actually running the show. Never before in US history was there a president who left such a slime trail of bribery and corruption. Just as they had spent all their energy the previous four years in undermining Mr. Trump, they had to spend the next four years propping up and defending “Joe Biden,” and then desperately trying to save their own asses from a Trump return. Meanwhile, they set out on their mission to wreck the country sufficient to clear the way for establishing a transhuman public-private utopia of crypto-Marxian “equity” (theft of property).

All of this political legerdemain summoned up the miasma of anxiety that beclouded the people of this sore-beset republic, and the nearly final blow to them was the Covid-19 operation, set in motion with the phony PCR test, that has now left a substantial number of citizens, vaccine-injured, disabled, and on-course for an early death — a pretty grotesque affront to our democracy. The victims are beginning to realize it.

The battery of Trump trials and lawsuits meant to put him totally out of business are now all simultaneously collapsing. Special Counsel Jack Smith is left doing Chinese fire drills around his office Keurig coffee machine. When the prank-fest in Judge Juan Merchan’s courtroom concludes, whether the jury sees the show for the farce that it is, or not, the Golden Golem of Greatness will be at large again among the voters. If he is clever enough to pick a capable veep that represents something like “assassination insurance” — say, Vivek, Tulsi Gabbard, or JD Vance — then the Obama cabal and the blob that has been protecting it will be swept out of power and into a dragnet of a kind of law actually associated with the word justice.

They are running out of ways to avoid it. All they’ve got left are the direst resorts: war, crashing the economy, another bio-weapon op against their own people, or an outright coup d’état. And even those probably won’t work.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 16:25

Stocks End Week On Muted Note As Stagflation Fears Mount  

Late Friday afternoon, US main equity indexes showed little change, with the S&P 500 on track for a 2% weekly gain after investors digested new concerns about a slowing economy and elevated inflation, rekindling fears of stagflation.

During the session, Treasury yields increased due to persistent inflationary pressures, complicating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's plan to cut interest rates later this year. Although most of the earnings season has concluded (prepare for Nvidia ER later this month), the continued strength from Corporate America remains a positive highlight. However, companies are increasingly signaling that low-income consumers are starting to crack. 

Let's begin with the biggest macro news in the session: This morning's consumer confidence survey from the University of Michigan pointed to an implosion of Bidenomics. The report was a total disaster. The index "unexpectedly" plunged from 77.2 to 67.4, a 9.8-point drop, the biggest since August 2021. 

... and was only a 7-sigma miss to expectations of a 76.2 print...

... but it was the biggest miss on record!

The consumer confidence report was released at 10:00 AM ET. Immediately afterward, US equity indexes gave up most of the gains and fell, moving sideways in afternoon trading. 

Among the US main equity indexes, the Russel 2000 was the biggest loser in the session. This is mainly because of economic weakness. 

There was little notable sector performance across the S&P500 besides tech, which was marginally higher, and energy, down half a percent. 

NYSE TICK showed selling pressure after 10:00 AM and persisted into early afternoon. 

Most shorted stocks are running out of steam to end the week. 

Treasury yields extended gains after the report as stubborn inflationary pressures reminded traders of the higher-for-longer theme. 

The Treasury 10-year Yield climbed above 4.5%. 

Today's stagflationary warning is a new challenge to the outlook of the Fed's interest rate cutting cycle. Fed swaps for '24 immediately sank from 1.77 cuts to about 1.63 cuts by late afternoon. Nasdaq futures tracked lower on fewer rate cuts. 

"Our economists continue to forecast two rate cuts from the Fed this year beginning with the July meeting. And yields on 10-year Treasuries have come off recent highs following last week's soft Payrolls report," Goldman's Chris Hussey wrote in a note this afternoon. 

Citi's US Economic Suprise Index slides to the lowest since January 2023. 

Whoops. 

Entire dovish move from huge jobs report miss has been reversed on catastrophic UMich print (which signals even more economic weakness) pic.twitter.com/xbjLTsa24e

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 10, 2024

What to expect next week. 

Which will reverse again next week when CPI is a huge miss https://t.co/8rjS34FLYL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 10, 2024

Bitcoin and Ethereum were clubbed like a baby seal after the report, sending the dollar soaring in a more hawkish environment. 

Meanwhile, JPM gets bullish on ETH. 

JPMorgan now just as bullish on ethereum as Larry Fink. Good luck @GaryGensler pic.twitter.com/tdQFKUvsKI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 10, 2024

In commodities, WTI was whacked from the near $80bbl handle, tumbling down to a low $78 after the report. Gold and silver slid on a strong dollar. 

Looking ahead, next week will be packed with macro data points, including the release of CPI, PPI, retail sales, and industrial production in the US. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 16:01

Actual Collusion? Missouri AG Accuses Biden DOJ Of Coordinating With Trump Prosecutors

Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey filed a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request on Thursday as part of a probe into whether the Biden DOJ coordinated with Trump prosecutors.

"The investigations and subsequent prosecutions of former President Donald J. Trump appear to have been conducted in coordination with the United States Department of Justice," Baily posted in a lengthy thread on X.

"This is demonstrated by the move of the third-highest ranking member of the Department of Justice, Matthew Colangelo, to the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office in order to prosecute President Trump in December 2022," Baily continues.

What's more, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg worked hand-in-hand with NY Attorney General Letitia James in pursuing civil litigation against Trump, which he used to campaign on.

Given the timing (Bragg charged Trump only after he declared his candidacy for President), the weakness of the charges, and the charges keeping Trump off the campaign trail, there is substantial reason to suspect @POTUS has coordinated with Bragg and others to prosecute Trump.

— Attorney General Andrew Bailey (@AGAndrewBailey) May 10, 2024

As Fox News reports further;

Bailey argues that Bragg’s decision to bring the prosecution "despite its transparent weakness has nonetheless had the effect of keeping former President Trump off the campaign trail, which President Biden has bragged about." 

He cites a post on X from the official Biden-Harris campaign on April 24, which says, "While Trump is stuck in court, President Biden is keeping a very robust schedule of campaign events. He’s been to Pennsylvania to talk about the economy, Virginia to talk about clean energy, and Florida to talk about abortion." 

Baily is seeking all communications, including documents, calendar appointments, meeting minutes and agendas related to Colangelo's move to work in Bragg's office - as well as similar communications between Bragg and NY AG Leticia James and Fulton County DA Fani Willis. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 14:00

SEC Doesn't Want Ethereum To Transform Banking Landscape, Says Joseph Lubin

By Gareth Jenkinson of CoinTelegraph

Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin believes the United States Securities and Exchange Commission is intentionally hindering innovation, which threatens the country’s existing financial landscape.

Speaking at FT Live’s Crypto and Digital Asset summit in London, Lubin unpacked Consensys’s decision to sue the SEC after receiving a Wells notice from the U.S. securities regulator.

“The SEC appears to have reclassified Ether as a security without telling anybody that that’s the case. They are going about a strategic series of enforcement actions rather than open discourse and clear rulemaking,” Lubin said.

The CEO of Consensys — which developed the MetaMask wallet — said the enforcement actions intend to create fear, uncertainty and doubt for the cryptocurrency industry “in an attempt to paralyze” and force the company offshore.

Lubin said the firm’s counteraction against the SEC is aimed at getting more clarity from U.S. courts, considering that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had previously classified Ether as a commodity.

Timing is suspicious

The Consensys CEO also highlighted the upcoming deadline for the SEC to issue a decision over the approval of Ether spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a driving force behind the regulator’s renewed enforcement action against Ethereum.

“We believe that there’s a flurry of activity designed to enable them to say that their action wasn’t capricious in the very likely event that they deny the Ether spot ETFs,” Lubin explained.

Lubin said the SEC had noticed how much capital had flowed into the ecosystem following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs:

“I think they’re concerned that so much attention and capital will flow to our ecosystem, considering it is improving enormously in terms of scalability and usability.”

Lubin also speculated that the prospect of the banking industry's customers moving assets into digital forms using decentralized finance constructs could scare many banks and other financial institutions.

“The SEC probably doesn’t want to see a wave of innovation that will really transform the landscape," he said.

Why Consensys needs to win the case

The importance of a positive outcome against the SEC could also have wide-reaching implications for the cryptocurrency and technology landscape in the United States.

Lubin said the SEC’s claims that Coinbase and MetaMask’s wallets are acting as broker-dealers are setting a dangerous precedent. He added that the thought of a piece of software acting as a broker-dealer was a “preposterous notion.”

“We’re at odds over whether we should register MetaMask as a broker-dealer. Should every MetaMask user have to register their wallet as a broker-dealer, it’s chilling,” Lubin added.

The Consensys CEO concluded that the entire technology industry in the U.S. could be impacted by the actions of the securities regulator.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 13:25

ICE Expected To Roll Out ID Program For Illegal Immigrants This Summer

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is planning to roll out a controversial ID card pilot program for illegal immigrants being released into the US, with the stated objective of 'modernizing the documentation process for removal proceedings,' Fox News reports.

Images show the ICE Secure Docket Card program. (Fox News)

First reported in 2022, the 'Secure Docket Card' pilot program is expected to begin this summer with around 10,000 cards in a limited rollout at three or four locations in the US. The agency claims that the program is "pre-decisional" and subject to change. According to the report, Houston and Atlanta are two potential locations.

Officials claim that the program will "modernize documentation provided to some noncitizens" but it will not be an official form of federal ID.

Images show the ICE Secure Docket Card program. (Fox News)

"While the specifics of the card and pilot are under development, it is important to note the secure card will not be an official form of federal identification," the agency said. "The secure card will indicate it is for use by DHS agencies and would be provided only after national security background checks have been performed."

When illegal immigrants cross the border and are released into the interior, they are often given a number of paper documents depending on their status and situation. ICE says that such documents pose a security risk and can be lost and degraded, and the new program will make the agency more efficient.

It would also allow for an easier verification of identity through DHS systems via officials. -Fox News

"Moving to a secure card will save the agency millions, free up resources and ensure information is quickly accessible to DHS officials while reducing the agency’s FOIA backlog," a spokesperson told the outlet. "For provisionally released noncitizens, the digital modernization will provide ongoing access to important immigration documents through the secure card and connected portal."

The program is expected to face serious opposition from Republicans and conservatives who have criticized the Biden administration for regular releases of illegal immigrants.

"Just in time for the election, the Biden administration is quietly legitimizing a government-sanctioned invasion of our nation," said RJ Hauman, president of the National Immigration Center for Enforcement (NICE) and a visiting fellow at The Heritage Foundation, in a statement to Fox News Digital.

"Providing illegal aliens with identification will undoubtedly lead to obtaining other documents, benefits and rights — or create an entirely new identity. After all, most who cross the border have no identification information in their possession. So, how do we even know who they are?"

On Wednesday, Republicans moved forward with legislation that would require a citizenship question on the census in order to prevent noncitizens from being counted.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 13:00

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-May 2024

A brief excerpt:

This 2-part overview for mid-May provides a snapshot of the current housing market.

I always like to start with inventory, since inventory usually tells the tale!
...
Here is a graph of new listing from Realtor.com’s April 2024 Monthly Housing Market Trends Report showing new listings were 12.2% year-over-year in April. This is still well below pre-pandemic levels. From Realtor.com:

However, providing a boost to overall inventory, which has been a drag on sales the past couple of years, sellers turned out in higher numbers this April as newly listed homes were 12.2% above last year’s levels, matching last month’s growth rate. This marked the sixth month of increasing listing activity after a 17-month streak of declines.

Note the seasonality for new listings. December and January are seasonally the weakest months of the year for new listings, followed by February and November. New listings will be up year-over-year in 2024, but still below normal levels.

There are always people that need to sell due to the so-called 3 D’s: Death, Divorce, and Disease. Also, in certain times, some homeowners will need to sell due to unemployment or excessive debt (neither is much of an issue right now).

And there are homeowners who want to sell for a number of reasons: upsizing (more babies), downsizing, moving for a new job, or moving to a nicer home or location (move-up buyers). It is some of the “want to sell” group that has been locked in with the golden handcuffs over the last couple of years, since it is financially difficult to move when your current mortgage rate is around 3%, and your new mortgage rate will be above 7%.

But time is a factor for this “want to sell” group, and eventually some of them will take the plunge. That is probably why we are seeing more new listings now.

There is much more in the article.

FDA Preparing For Possible Bird Flu Spread Among Humans: Commissioner

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Robert Califf in Washington in a file image. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is preparing for a scenario in which the highly pathogenic avian influenza starts spreading among humans, the agency’s commissioner said on May 8.

“This virus, like all viruses, is mutating. We need to continue to prepare for the possibility that it might jump to humans,” Dr. Robert Califf, the commissioner, told senators during a hearing in Washington.

The influenza, also known as the bird flu or H5N1, has recently started spreading among cattle and other species. One person in Texas has had a confirmed case this year.

So far, genetic sequencing and other data indicate that influenza poses little risk to people, and there are no signs that the flu is transmitting from person-to-person, according to U.S. officials. But they are working on getting treatments, tests, and vaccines ready in case that changes.

“We’ve been busy getting prepared for if the virus does mutate in a way that jumps into humans on a larger level,” Dr. Califf told the Senate Appropriations Committee’s Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee.

The patient in Texas primarily experienced one symptom: inflamed eyes. Neither the patient nor many of the cows that have been infected have suffered respiratory symptoms. H5N1 commonly infects the respiratory tracts of birds.

“The real worry is that it will jump to the human lungs, where, when that has happened in other parts of the world for brief outbreaks, the mortality rates have been 25 percent,” Dr. Califf said. The worry is based in part on how viruses typically mutate, such as in the case of COVID-19.

From 2003 to April 1, 2024, 889 cases of H5N1 have been confirmed across the globe, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). Of the patients, 52 percent have died.

WHO chief scientist Jeremy Farrar said recently that H5N1 has developed into a “global zoonotic animal pandemic” and that scientists are concerned that the virus could evolve to spread among humans.

Tedros Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the organization, said Wednesday that “the virus does not show signs of having adapted to spread among humans, but more surveillance is needed.”

Many experts consulted by the U.S. government are concerned about the jump of the influenza to cattle and other species and how cattle intermingle with pigs, chickens, and humans on farms, according to Dr. Califf. A May 3 study from U.S. and Danish researchers said testing of tissues from cattle indicated the animals could serve as a “mixing vessel” for avian influenza because receptors from chickens, ducks, and humans were expressed in the cows.

While the risk is still low, “if we institute the countermeasures now and reduce the spread of the virus now, then we’re much less likely to see a mutation that jumps to humans for which we’re ill-prepared,” Dr. Califf added.

Current U.S. rules mandate testing of some cattle before being moved to another state. The guidance includes advising workers on farms to wear protective equipment when dealing with animals that may be or are sick with the bird flu.

The FDA is focusing in part on ensuring the country’s milk supply is safe to drink. The agency and its partners have tested samples of milk from grocery stores. Although some samples tested positive, no live virus has been detected, meaning the milk supply is safe, according to the agency.

Test results from beef have also found beef is safe, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The agency has confirmed H5N1 infections in 36 herds across nine states, including Colorado, Kansas, and Michigan. Data from affected cows indicate H5N1 began circulating in cattle in late 2023, according to a preprint paper from the department.

About 70 farm workers are being monitored in Colorado, officials said in a briefing this week, but none have displayed symptoms as of yet.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 12:35

"Worst Case Scenario": MacroGenics Crashes After Five Patient Deaths In Experimental Drug Trial 

A Rockville, Maryland-based biotech company called MacroGenics crashed in premarket trading in New York after it revealed five deaths in a clinical trial of its investigative therapy for prostate cancer, according to Bloomberg.  

MacroGenics finished enrolling participants for the TAMARACK Phase 2 study of vobra duo in November 2023. This study involves patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer who have previously received one treatment targeting the androgen receptor pathway. These participants might also have had one prior treatment, including taxane, but no other chemotherapy. The study aims to test two different doses of vobra duo, either 2.0 mg/kg or 2.7 mg/kg, given every four weeks. 

"The interim safety and anti-tumor activity observed to date in the TAMARACK study look very promising for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer," Johann DeBono, Regius Professor of Cancer Research and Professor in Experimental Cancer Medicine at The Institute of Cancer Research, London and The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, stated in a release.

DeBono continued, "With the limited treatment options currently available to these patients, this novel ADC molecule could potentially become the first therapy targeting B7-H3 in patients with prostate cancer and would represent an important new treatment for this population."

Further in the release, MacroGenics revealed five deaths in the study. They said two deaths have been considered unrelated to the study, while the other three are being investigated. 

A total of five events with fatal outcome occurred as follows: one Grade 5 event in the 2.0 mg/kg dosing cohort: acute myocardial infarction (considered unrelated to study drug by the investigator); three Grade 5 events in the 2.7 mg/kg dosing cohort: one •  cardiac arrest (considered unrelated to study drug by the investigator) and two events of pneumonitis. In addition, a patient in the 2.7 mg/kg dosing cohort had a Grade 3 pleural effusion that is recorded as having a fatal outcome. The latter three deaths are being investigated, as follow-up is incomplete on this ongoing trial. 

In premarket trading, shares crashed 67% on fears of updated efficacy and safety information regarding the clinical trial. 

Wall Street analysts were very sour about the new developments. Here's what they're saying (list courtesy of Bloomberg):

BMO Capital Markets (downgrades to market perform from outperform)

• Analyst Etzer Darout has lower conviction on MacroGenics' prostate cancer program, with both efficacy and safety updates for TAMARACK falling short of expectations

Stifel (downgrades to buy from hold)

• Analyst Stephen Willey's primary concerns are not efficacy- driven, but rather reflect safety and tolerability data

• The data doesn't appear meaningfully differentiated from the prior P1 dose-expansion experience

SVB Securities (outperform)

• TAMARACK data was notable for its meaningfully deteriorated safety profile which "likely represent one of the worst case scenarios," says analyst Jonathan Chang

... bears shorted 16.29% of the float or 10 million shares. 

This sets up for a high volume day and wild volatility. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 12:10

Senate Bill Seeks To Place Campus Protesters On No-Fly List

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

A bill introduced in the Senate by two Republicans seeks to place campus protesters on a no-fly list. Across the country, pro-Palestinian students are gathering on campuses and demanding their universities cut ties with the Israeli government over Tel Aviv’s ruthless military operation in Gaza. Across the political spectrum, US politicians attempt to smear all protesters' pro-Palestinian viewpoint as antisemitic.  

According to the legislation posted on Senator Marsha Blackburn’s website on Wednesday, S.4274 will require the US government to place the campus protesters on a no-fly list. A press release from Blackburn and her Republican colleague Roger Marshall explains, "The No Flights For Terrorists Act, would put any individual including: students, faculty, professors, or paid agitators, on the No-Fly List if they have called for violence against Jewish people, pledged allegiance to US-designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations, or have been subject to disciplinary action by the institution of higher education related to such action."

Via Getty Images

It adds, "This legislative action comes in response to the continued antisemitic, pro-Hamas protests and encampments that have wreaked violence and chaos on college campuses nationwide." Blackburn has also called for campus protesters to have their student loans revoked and supports a separate bill that would prevent the activists from having federal student loans relieved. 

Last month, pro-Palestinian protests spread from Columbia in New York City to the rest of the country. The rallies and encampments have been overwhelmingly peaceful and involved Jewish students and organizations. The protesters are demanding their universities cut ties with the Israeli government as they have charged Tel Aviv with conducting a genocide in Gaza.

Still, the students and their supporters have been smeared as anti-Semitic and anti-American by leaders across the political spectrum. Sen. Marshall said, "Hamas terrorist sympathizers don’t just hate Israel, they hate America and everything we stand for. These radical Marxists who are doing Hamas’ bidding across the country on college campuses, threatening the safety of our Jewish students and communities, should be treated the same way we treat the terrorist organization.” 

President Joe Biden made similar remarks on Tuesday. "On college campuses, Jewish students blocked, harassed, attacked while walking to class. Antisemitism — antisemitic posters, slogans calling for the annihilation of Israel, the world’s only Jewish State."

Wow! Sens. Roger Marshall (R-KS) and Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) have introduced a bill that would designate student protesters "Terrorists" and add them to the "No Fly List" (with zero judicial oversight) for protesting Israel, which is deemed "violence against the Jewish people"! pic.twitter.com/ITa7aWFQbS

— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) May 8, 2024

The President continued, "There is no place on any campus in America — any place in America — for antisemitism or hate speech or threats of violence of any kind — whether against Jews or anyone else. Violent attacks, destroying property is not peaceful protest."

He added, "It’s against the law. And we are not a lawless country. We’re a civil society. We uphold the rule of law."

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 11:45

​​​​​​​Biden Reportedly Set To Quadruple Tariffs On Chinese EVs In Major Announcement Next Week

Update (1130ET):

The Wall Street Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, has revealed more details about President Biden's big announcement regarding China tariffs scheduled for next Tuesday. 

Officials are particularly focused on electric vehicles, and they are expected to raise the tariff rate to roughly 100% from 25%, according to the people. 

An additional 2.5% duty applies to all automobiles imported into the US. The existing tariff has so far effectively barred Chinese electric vehicles, often cheaper than Western-made cars, from the US market. Biden administration officials, automakers and some lawmakers worried that 25% wouldn't be enough given the scale of Chinese manufacturing.

Bloomberg first reported that the Biden administration was planning to announce China tariffs on semiconductors, solar power, and electric vehicles. 

We suspect Beijing is actively planning a tit-for-tat move later next week as the administration has made their next move very clear in news stories published in US corporate media outlets through anonymous sourcing. 

*   *   * 

The Biden administration is expected to make a major announcement on China tariffs as soon as next week that will impact semiconductors, solar power, and electric vehicles, according to Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter. While the possibility of additional tariffs has been widely known, the specific industries to be targeted have now been identified. Moreover, Beijing will likely release angry comments after Biden's speech next week, followed by a tit-for-tat response. 

Two of the people said the decision to hit China's "new three" green goods comes after a review of Section 301 tariffs, which were first implemented under former President Trump in 2018. The tariffs primarily target electric vehicles, batteries, and solar cells, with existing tariffs being maintained. They said the announcement is planned for Tuesday. 

The Biden administration is making a bold move against Beijing in an election year as polling data spirals lower as Bidenomics has become a complete failure. It's not us just saying this. Billionaire investor and Duquesne Family Office Chairman & CEO Stan Druckenmiller told CNBC's Joe Kernen earlier this week that Bidenomics is a disaster. 

Last month, the president said he would impose  25% tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum. Earlier this week, the administration said it would revoke Intel and Qualcomm's export license to supply semiconductors to Chinese firm Huawei. 

If China were to retaliate, in a tit-for-tat effort, they could hit Elon Musk's Tesla or continue reducing US agricultural exports of corn and soybean. 

"Instead of correcting its wrong practices, the United States continued to politicize economic and trade issues," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Friday, adding, "To further increase tariffs is to add insult to injury." 

Meanwhile, if reelected, Trump has promised to hit China with a tsunami of tariffs, vowing a 60% tax on all Chinese imports. 

US Senator Chuck Grassley, an Iowa Republican, warned Beijing will respond:  

"We know how China reacted when Trump put tariffs on ... and they hit agriculture with it. I can't be sure that China would hit agriculture the same as they did in the Trump ones, but they're going to hit back."

In markets, Chinese shares of solar firms fell on the news:

• Longi shares drop 1.8% in Shanghai, JA Solar -1.7% in Shenzhen, Xinyi Solar -3.8% in Hong Kong

The yuan weakened in both onshore and offshore markets, while CSI 300 Index fell: 

• USD/CNH gains 0.1% at 7.2270, pair on track to rise 0.5% on the week, biggest weekly advance since the week ended March 22

• USD/CNY rises 0.1% at 7.2251

• Bloomberg's dollar spot index steady; USD/HKD is little changed at 7.8139

• CSI 300 Index, benchmark of onshore China stocks, falls as much as 0.6% before paring about half of its decline.

"It'll definitely cause investors to pause on stocks that are potentially exposed," said Xin-Yao Ng, director of investment at abrdn. He added, "Everyone knows it's a risk." 

Here's what other Wall Street analysts are saying (list courtesy of Bloomberg):

AllianceBernstein (John Lin)

• We are not overly concerned about that because to us geopolitics is now a structural part of investing in China" 
• "Everybody understands that there will be periods where things get a little worse and there will be periods where things get a little better. And that fluctuation to us is really an opportunity to add or reduce risk but not a reason to stay away from the market overall"

ANZ Banking Group (Khoon Goh)

• News of the US imposing more tariffs against some Chinese imports has seen the yuan weaken slightly
• The threat of more tariffs have been known, but if the final outcome is for a more targeted approach, then there is unlikely to be much of a lasting effect on the yuan

Maybank (Fiona Lim)

• "You can't say that this was not expected. Such trade-war era kind of tensions have been in the making ever since Trump spoke about imposing 60% tariff"
• People's Bank of China is keeping the yuan in a tight grip via the fix and offshore liquidity management and that may limit bearish swings to a certain extent
• "USDCNH-USDCNY premium could widen in such an environment"

TD Securities (Alex Loo)

• It wasn't a total surprise to us. Trade tensions would likely increase if Biden puts heavy tariffs on China's products in the coming weeks
• We anticipate that yuan would trade on the backfoot given such unfavorable news but expect the PBoC to continue to intervene and smooth out any excessive weakness in the CNY 
• Regional currencies are more sensitive to moves in the USD path now since China has been effectively anchoring the yuan

Eastspring Investments (Ken Wong)

• This news on the proposed tariffs in particular for Chinese EVs was widely expected
• Even so, we are seeing a bit of a pullback in EVs and renewable stocks in HK/China this morning

Saxo Capital Markets (Charu Chanana)

• The tariff announcement is a reminder that geopolitics remains a key aspect in considering exposure to China market, and valuations or government support measures are not the only catalysts
• This means valuations may continue to "take the ebb and flow of geopolitics into account" and also "increased exposure to domestic-oriented sectors"

IG Markets (Hebe Chen)

• "The US's latest tariff hike on China EV is poised to trigger unprecedented shockwaves through the industry" 
•  This move not only deals a crippling blow to China's new strategic ambitions, but it also marks a potential tipping point, broadening the trade war between Washington and Beijing to a new level 
• For Chinese stocks, particularly EV companies, the new tariff decision is akin to a looming tsunami. Investors are bracing for a significant upend as the full impact of the new tariffs unfolds

Shanghai Jade Stone Investment Management (Chen Shi)

• We've long been expecting more anti-China rhetoric and policies to be amplified closer to the election, and though this is surely a piece of negative news, to us, and to investors in general, the marginal effect is diminishing 
• "China has proven through the years that its core edge lies in a strong and comprehensive industrial structure, and that cannot be challenged with tariffs" 
• There are plenty of ways for companies to work around this

Deepening a trade war with China comes as Biden's polling data is absolutely awful. 

This shows Biden's polling data versus headlines in corporate media featuring trade war-related news.  

A tough-on-China stance could be a new strategy the administration attempts to win back voters.

... it won't work. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 11:30

From Goldman:

We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.4% (qoq ar) and left our domestic final sales estimate unchanged at +2.7%. [May 7th estimate]
emphasis added

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent on May 8, up from 3.3 percent on May 2. After recent releases from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the US Census Bureau, the Institute for Supply Management, and the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 3.2 percent and 4.1 percent, respectively, to 3.9 percent and 6.8 percent, while the nowcast of the contribution of the change in real net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth decreased from -0.05 percentage points to -0.10 percentage points. [May 8th estimate]

After Cocoa Crash, Rabobank Says Bull Rally Likely Peaked 

Rabobank analyst Paul Joules wrote in a note to clients that cocoa prices have likely peaked after crashing in the last several weeks. 

"A combination of weakening global demand and production responses, particularly from countries without a fixed farmgate price, will help alleviate the pronounced uncertainty baked into current futures pricing," Joules said. 

Still, "it's likely that inflated cocoa prices will stick around for the next few years," he noted, adding prices are unlikely to return to "normal" levels quickly but have passed their peak. 

Cocoa futures peaked in New York on April 19, a little above the $12,000 a ton mark, and have since crashed 43%. Prices bottomed at $7,000 and have traded sideways just below the $9,000 level in the last several sessions. 

Traders monitor crop conditions in West Africa, which is the mecca of cocoa growing. The region has been battered by adverse weather conditions and disease, denting harvests and sparking the third annual global deficit. 

New data from forecaster Maxar Technologies shows that precipitation is expected across the Ivory Coast and Ghana over the next five days, thus potentially improving soil moisture in those growing areas. 

In a separate report, analysts from BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, noted that the cocoa crash had nothing to do with market fundamentals but everything to do with market liquidity. 

Recall in early April, Bloomberg's Javier Blas warned:

Liquidity in cocoa markets is quickly evaporating.

The number of outstanding contracts (open interest) in New York and London combined has tumbled 40% since mid-January. NY open interest is at a 12-year low.#cocoa #chocflation

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) April 9, 2024

Rabobank estimates cocoa prices in the fourth quarter of 2024 will average around $7,000. 

Meanwhile, commodity trader Pierre Andurand stands by his $20,000 price target for later this year. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 11:20

What’s Behind America’s Doctor Crisis?

Authored by Autumn Spredemann via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

(Illustration by The Epoch Times, Getty Images, Shutterstock)

Securing an appointment to see a doctor in the United States is exacerbated by soaring health care demand and fewer doctors. Many specializations are increasingly affected by this trend, but primary care and emergency medicine are among the hardest hit.

The average wait time to see a doctor has increased since 2017 and continued to rise after the demand spike brought on by COVID-19. A survey conducted by AMN Healthcare in 2022 of 15 large metro markets revealed the average time to see a physician was 26 days—an 8 percent increase from 2017 and a 24 percent spike since 2004.

Staff constraints are also felt in hospital emergency departments. Nearly 140 million Americans visited a hospital emergency department in 2021, based on data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Of those, about 13 percent resulted in hospital admission; while thousands waited hours to see a health care provider.

Consequently, many patients leave before being seen by a doctor.

One study analyzed more than 1,000 hospitals between 2017 and the end of 2021 and found those with the worst performance had 4.4 percent of emergency room patients leave before a medical evaluation was conducted. At the end of 2021, that number had risen to upwards of 10 percent.

Compounding the issue is that nearly half of the doctor population will reach retirement age within the next 10 years and career burnout is hitting the rest harder than ever, according to data from Association of American Medical Colleges.

Almost 50 percent of doctors report that they feel burned out, according to a 2024 Medscape report.

These are key factors driving America’s growing scarcity of doctors. Physician Thrive’s 2023 study noted that the United States may have a shortage of 124,000 doctors by 2034. Within that shortfall, up to 48,000 will likely be lost from primary care, while the industry is projected to lose another 58,000 specialists, surgeons, and nurse practitioners.

“This is definitely coming down the pipeline. It’s been coming for a long time, and we’re seeing this all across health care,” emergency physician Dr. Jared Ross told The Epoch Times.

Dr. Ross is also president of Missouri-based Emergency Medical Services, Education & Consulting. He’s watched America’s health care worker crisis unfold on the front lines and says the shortage of physicians is an old problem that’s reached a tipping point.

“We’ve talked about this for years. It’s nothing new. There’s been a number of attempted stop-gap measures that haven’t been all that successful,” he said.

A person walks past an 'Emergency Entrance' sign at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City on Sept. 22, 2020. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

Some of these provisional solutions include bringing in more practitioners from foreign countries, medical school loan forgiveness programs, expanding telehealth services, and increasing the number of resident physician training supported by Medicare.

Dr. Ross has seen doctor shortages impact emergency medicine but maintains primary care has “really struggled” to retain physicians.

This is critical for two reasons. One is because health care demands in the United States are rising. The average number of times Americans visit a doctor per year by age group is four times for adults, nine for infants, and twice for children between the ages of five and 15, according to Vanguard Medical Group.

The other reason is due to what Dr. Ross called the “corporatization of medicine.”

“The problem is we have an insurance system that is a massive bureaucracy,” he said.

During a recent conference with other medical leaders, Dr. Ross said it was discussed how America has “really pushed away from the model of traditional health care.”

There was a general consensus within the group that insurance companies have become too powerful in medicine.

“The administrative burden or hassle, as many doctors describe it, is very disheartening,” Dr. William Schaffner, infectious disease specialist at the Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told The Epoch Times.

Having worked in medicine for more than 40 years, Dr. Schaffner has witnessed it evolve into something “aggressively more complicated” as insurance companies expand power over doctors. He says this trend became more noticeable by the 1990s.

“Doctors didn’t go to medical school in anticipation of arguing with insurance companies. It’s depressing and discouraging,” Dr. Schaffner said.

In 2020, for the first time, fewer than 50 percent of U.S. physicians worked in private practice, according to the American Medical Association (AMA). Most have chosen to become employees of large medical groups, which has drastically changed the paradigm of health care.

“The shift away from independent practices is emblematic of the fiscal uncertainty and economic stress many physicians face due to statutory payment cuts in Medicare, rising practice costs, and intrusive administrative burdens,” AMA President Dr. Jesse M. Ehrenfeld said in a 2023 statement.

A health care professional suits up to enter a room in the ICU at Van Wert County Hospital in Van Wert, Ohio, on Nov. 20, 2020. (Megan Jelinger/AFP via Getty Images) Battling With Insurance

The move from independent practice to medical group employee presents its own dilemma. Aside from increased patient loads, it has left doctors at the mercy of having to get prior approval from insurance companies to carry out a medical treatment or procedure.

This forces a quantity-over-quality approach to treatment, according to Dr. Ross.

Prior authorizations are “an absolute headache,” he said. Physicians are now stuck battling with a third party who creates “as many roadblocks as possible because they don’t want to pay out.”

Dr. Schaffner said it took “numerous telephone conversations” with an insurance provider so a family member could get a necessary medical procedure done.

He said part of why it’s challenging is because there needs to be a level of trust on the insurance company’s end. “It’s not just a formal relationship that happens, but there also has to be a trust that develops with the benefits manager. It can take time,” Dr. Schaffner said.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 10:55

Bidenomics Implodes: Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Craters In Biggest Miss On Record As Inflation Expectations Surge

Moments ago the University of Michigan released the latest "report card" on Bidenomics, and to nobody's surprise - except perhaps a certain senile teleprompter reading, diaper wearing puppet in the White House - it was a total disaster, as Sentiment "unexpectedly" plunged from 77.2 to 67.4, the 9.8 point drop the biggest since August 2021...

... and was not only a 7-sigma miss to expectations of a 76.2 print...

... but was the biggest miss on record!

The collapse in sentiment was broad based, and hammered both current conditions - which plunged from 79.0 to 68.8, badly missing estimates of 79.0 - and also expectations, which plunged from 76.0 to 66.5 (and far below the 75.0 estimated).

The decline in sentiment was broad across age, income and education groups, and also reflected growing concerns about high interest rates. While the labor market has driven economic growth over the last year, the downbeat assessment highlighted in the report adds to evidence of a slowdown.

“Strength in household incomes has been the primary source of support for robust consumer spending over the past couple of years, so a softening in labor market expectations is concerning and -- if it continues -- may lead to a pullback in consumers’ willingness to spend,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

But wait there's more, because if that was the "stag" part of the report, the UMich report also confirmed that the "flation" isn't far behind, as the inflation outlook suddenly deteriorated quite dramatically, to wit: 1Year inflation expectations jumped from 3.2% to 2.5%, the highest since November 2023 (and far above estimates of 3.2%), while 5-10 Year inflation expectations also rose from 3.0% to 3.1%, the highest since November.

If that wasn't enough, the university's measure of buying conditions for durable goods, some of which are financed, also decreased to a one-year low. And finally, consumers’ perception of their financial situation, as well as short- and long-term economic outlooks, decreased this month.

“Worse yet, consumers expect the pain to continue, as expectations for interest rates deteriorated considerably this month,” Hsu said. “Only one quarter of consumers expect interest rates to fall in the year ahead, compared with 32% in April.”

One possible reason for the shocking collapse in the print is that, as Pantheon Macro noted ahead of the print, UMich is in the process of switching from phone to an online survey, which according to Pantheon was, get this, "likely to weigh on the headline sentiment because people on the phone are more optimistic than the online applications." Riiight. If anything the transition from phone to online just means that people are actually more truthful in their responses and, well... we just saw the result!

In short: the verdict for Bidenomics is in, and it's a complete disaster, as for Powell's recent laughable comment that he can't see the "stag" nor the "flation"... well, Fed chair, they just bit you on the ass.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 10:26

 

 

This week, we speak with Jim O’Shaughnessy, founder and CEO of O’Shaughnessy Ventures. He is also chairman of the board at Stability AI. He is the host of the Infinite Loops podcast and the author of How to Retire Rich, Invest Like the Best, and Predicting the Markets of Tomorrow.

We discuss how the book What Works on Wall Street set the tone for his entire career as a quant. He was the director of systematic investing at Bear Stearns, leaving in 2007 to launch O’Shaughnessy Asset Management, now a part of Franklin Templeton. He explains how the Canvas product came about and how it attracted acquirers’ attention.

A list of his favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Savita Subramanian, Head of US Equity and Quantitative Strategy, Bank of America Merrill Lynch. She was Institutional Investor All America Research Team for the past 11 years.

 

Favorite Books

 

Jim O’Shaugnessy favorite books

Burn Book: A Tech Love Story by Kara Swisher

The Story of Civilization by Will Durant

Theodore Rex by Edmund Morris

AI 2041: Ten Visions for Our Future by Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan

 

Books Barry mentioned

The Wright Brothers by David McCullough

 

Jim O’Shaugnessy’s authored books

 

 

 

 

 

 

The post MiB: Jim O’Shaughnessy, O’Shaughnessy Ventures appeared first on The Big Picture.

Dog Gone: Kristi Noem Cuts Short Book Tour Citing 'Bad Weather'

Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClear Wire,

South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem has cut short a disastrous book tour after receiving withering criticism for her story of shooting an ill-behaved puppy and unverified claims of meeting North Korean dictator Kim Jung Un, RealClearPolitics is first to report. The book, released Tuesday, is titled “No Going Back.”

Noem sat for a series of in-person interviews in New York and was scheduled to travel later in the week to Washington, D.C., before canceling the tour, citing inclement weather.

“Gov. Noem has sold a lot of books on this tour and is back in South Dakota to be prepared for some potential emerging bad weather systems,” spokesman Ian Fury told RCP. Tornadoes touched down in the state Monday, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Noem sat for interviews Monday and Tuesday in New York before returning home.

Noem was slated to sit down with RealClearPolitics on Thursday before her team canceled the interview and declined to make her available over the phone.

Once heralded as a rising star on the right, in one week the governor was reduced to a punchline. She provided all the material. “We were supposed to have Gov. Kristi Noem on the show tonight, but she canceled. Her staff blamed bad weather,” deadpanned Greg Gutfeld Tuesday night. “We go to locals for reaction.” The Fox News funnyman then cut to a clip of barking dogs.

Noem had billed her book as “a how-to guide” for political activism, pegging its publication to the ongoing veepstakes to join former President Trump on the GOP ticket. Calamity followed when an excerpt leaked to The Guardian, and what was planned as a national audition was overshadowed by the grisly stories the governor told about herself.

Noem writes of dragging a 14-month-old dog into a gravel pit on her property after the poorly trained animal spoiled a pheasant hunt and attacked a neighbor's chickens. She killed the puppy named “Cricket” with a shotgun. After dispatching the dog, she turned her attention to an unruly goat. Noem took a shot, but the billy jumped. She writes in her memoir that she left the goat tethered, retrieved more ammunition, then “hurried back to the gravel pit and put him down.”

Despite a growing firestorm of criticism, the author went ahead with her tour, sitting down on Sunday with Margaret Brennan of CBS News. The story from two decades ago, Noem insisted, showed her willingness to make tough decisions.

“This dog was a working dog and had come from a family that had issues with this dog and I had put months and months of training into this dog. This dog had gone to other trainers as well,” Noem said.

“So all of that is the facts of the story, and all of that shows that when you put someone in a position where they have to make a decision and they want to protect their family and protect children and other people from getting attacked from an animal that has attacked others and killed livestock, that’s the choice I made over 20 years ago. And that I didn’t ask somebody else to take that responsibility for me,” she continued.

Noem also appeared to joke in the book about euthanizing President Biden’s dog, Commander, who was removed from White House grounds after numerous biting incidents.

“What would I do if I was president on the first day in office in 2025? Thanks for asking. I happen to have a list. The first thing I’d do is make sure Joe Biden’s dog was nowhere on the grounds (‘Commander, say hello to Cricket for me’),” Noem wrote. The White House was not amused.

“We learned last week, obviously like all of you, in her book that she killed her puppy," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters Monday. “You heard me say that was very, very sad. We find her comments from yesterday disturbing. We find them absurd.”

Perhaps more disastrous was the claim Noem made about traveling to North Korea and meeting Kim Jung Un when she served on the House Armed Services Committee in Congress.

“I’m not going to talk about my specific meetings with world leaders. I’m just not going to do that. This anecdote shouldn’t have been in the book and as soon as it was brought to my attention, I made sure that that was adjusted,” she said when pressed about whether the meeting took place.

The publisher of the book, Center Street, announced that subsequent printings of the book would not include the reference. An audiobook, which the governor narrated, is also expected to be edited and updated. The passage in question is brief and sparse in detail.

The North Korean anecdote is two sentences in a 260-page book: “I remember when I met with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. I’m sure he underestimated me, having no clue about my experience staring down little tyrants (I’d been a children’s pastor, after all).”

Prior to the book tour, Noem made little secret about her ambitions for national office. She was quick to criticize the field challenging Trump for the nomination, and in February, the governor traveled to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump and pitch him on joining the ticket. According to sources with knowledge of the meeting, Noem showed Trump polling from Kaplan Strategies that showed her boosting his chances in Wisconsin and Michigan with her as a running mate.

Doug Kaplan, the pollster who conducted the survey, cautioned in a brief interview with RCP that those positive numbers were from “a lifetime ago.”

Noem is now haunted by the dog she dispatched two decades ago. During a Tuesday interview with Stuart Varney on Fox Business, the governor became impatient with the host when he kept returning the conversation to how the dead puppy affected her chances at the vice presidency.

“Enough, Stuart. This interview is ridiculous, which you are doing right now,” Noem said. “So you need to stop. It is OK. It is. Let’s talk about some real topics that Americans care about.”

“I’m afraid we’re out of time,” Varney responded.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/10/2024 - 09:30