Hanged, Drawn, And Quartered

By Michael Every of Rabobank

From a “because markets” perspective, the key story today is President Trump saying he would like the US to shift from quarterly to biannual corporate reporting: "This will save money, and allow managers to focus on properly running their companies… Did you ever hear the statement that, 'China has a 50 to 100 year view on management of a company, whereas we run our companies on a quarterly basis??? Not good!!!" One can hear the wails of those in the ouroboros of 3-monthly higher/lower games. Yet from an economic statecraft perspective, is this wrong?

Agree there and you have to ask why US firms are supposed to fixate on short-term returns to shareholders rather than a long-run vision. The Chinese EVs sweeping all before them --and cementing control of key supply chains-- are losing money hand over fist; does that matter if they can keep it up longer than western markets would allow? Neomercantilism says yes. Accept that, and you quickly turn to what quarterly GDP is and isn’t measuring and is and isn’t “for”.

That is starting to happen, as a quick round-up of geopolitics underlines:

• "America risks making frenemies of old allies", argues the FT: what did Machiavelli say about being feared vs loved?

• ŸThe US struck a second alleged drug boat from Venezuela, as the State Department approved a possible sale of F-16s to Peru.

• The US announced that it will broaden its anti-narcotics strikes to land and named Afghanistan, the Bahamas, Belize, Bolivia, Burma, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, India, Jamaica, Laos, Mexico, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Panama, Peru, and Venezuela as countries with drug production inputs, facilities, or key transit channels. Monroe Doctrine, anyone?

• The US struck a second alleged drug boat from Venezuela, as the State Department approved a possible sale of F-16s to Peru.

• ŸIsrael’s invasion of Gaza City has begun for real, with the region in turmoil over that and the recent Israeli strike on Qatar, which sources say Trump was informed of in advance. Negotiations are apparently also taking place behind the scenes to try to avoid a full  invasion.

• Australia’s Papua New Guinea defence treaty will require both to 'act' if either is attacked, though it’s still unsigned, Vanuatu hasn’t signed the same deal, and PM Albanese is now aiming for Fiji as whispers are of Chinese regional counter-lobbying.

• ŸIn Europe, Denmark will bypass more than 20 laws and regulations to allow Ukraine’s Fire Point to build a solid rocket fuel plant near a Danish airbase.  

Geoeconomics makes the same point:

• Poland closing its border with Belarus has frozen €25bn in EU-China rail trade.

• ŸChina threatened “decisive countermeasures” should Europe and the US impose secondary sanction tariffs on it for buying Russian oil.

• Reuters underlines China and Russia are using bilateral barter to avoid the US dollar.  

• Ÿ‘China’s curbs on defence metal germanium create ‘desperate’ supply squeeze’ (FT): prices are at a 14-year high for the crucial input a GDP-and-P/E-focus saw China gain total control of.

• China says Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws, escalating tensions with the US, though the two have reached a TikTok “consensus’, perhaps setting up a Trump-Xi call, as Treasury Secretary Bessent underlined China is making “aggressive asks.”

• Australia has unveiled plans to boost its exports to China even as it suffered economic coercion on that front in recent years, and as it tries to sign defence treaties with Pacific nations which could risk that happening all over again.

• ŸAn India-EU trade deal has been hit by a basmati rice dispute as Pakistan says the vaunted grains are theirs, leaving Brussels to play for time. It certainly symbolises how the usual “grain-ular” EU approach on free trade doesn’t work in a geopolitical world.

• Indeed, Israeli PM Netanyahu stated his country is economically isolated and will need to become self-reliant for the weapons it needs: he even mentioned “autarky”.

Political news also flows away from a business-as-usual focus on GDP and quarterly earnings:

• Politico argues ‘Why Macron thinks Lecornu can save France from the abyss’

• ŸThe AfD tripled its vote share in a key western state in Germany

• A Tory MP defected to Reform UK as a poll has the party 16 points ahead of Labour and the Conservatives; “Labour MPs talk openly about replacing PM, as third senior ally in two weeks departs after publication of messages”

• ŸThe White House says it will crack down on the political left

• ŸThe Wall Street Journal notes “fascist” has been normalised as an insult by all in US politics

• ŸA US free speech lobby group poll of Harvard students has 32% backing violence to stop political voices they oppose on campus.

In markets, an appeals court ruled Trump can’t fire Governor Cook before the next Fed meeting, so how will Cook vote - unless the Supreme Court quickly steps in? That’s as Trump appointee Miran won confirmation to the Fed, which Bloomberg calls a “Watershed policy moment”. The current trend suggests a lot higher watersheds than that to come.

Meanwhile, Thailand is weighing taxes on physical gold trading as the metal is dragging THB higher as the struggling economy needs a lower exchange rate; and the Bank of England proposes strict limits on stablecoin ownership - that’s one way to avoid the threat of dollar stablecoins, but I doubt the US will stand for it. Does either move say, “because markets” or “expect further changes to the global architecture”?

To summarize all of the above, just looking at the usual numbers in the usual “because markets” ways at times like these risks seeing you hung, drawn, and quartered.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 10:05

ICE Requests Removal Of Cuban Illegal Alien Charged With Murder In Texas Beheading

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) has lodged a detainer for an illegal immigrant from Cuba who was accused of beheading a victim in Texas with a machete.

Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents detain an illegal immigrant near Washington in May 2025. Courtesy of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement

In a statement, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said that Yordanis Cobos-Martinez, who has a lengthy rap sheet, is accused of committing the murder at a Dallas motel on Sept. 10.

The suspect “allegedly used a machete to behead a merchant he had an argument [with] in front of the merchant’s spouse and child,” DHS stated.

ICE has since filed a request for Cobos-Martinez to be detained for federal arrest and removal with the Dallas County Jail, where he is being held, the agency confirmed.

Previously, he was convicted of child sex abuse, grand theft of a motor vehicle, false imprisonment, and carjacking, DHS stated.

“This vile monster beheaded this man in front of his wife and child,” DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said in a statement. “This gruesome, savage slaying of a victim at a motel by Yordanis Cobos-Martinez was completely preventable if this criminal illegal alien was not released into our country by the Biden Administration since Cuba would not take him back.”

She added that the incident is “exactly why” the department is removing criminal illegal aliens to third countries.

“If you come to our country illegally, you could end up in Eswatini, Uganda, South Sudan, or CECOT,” she said.

CECOT refers to the large prison facility in El Salvador used to house prisoners convicted of murder as well as members of MS-13, which was declared a foreign terrorist organization by the Trump administration earlier this year.

The department added that Cobos-Martinez was held in ICE custody but was released on Jan. 13, 2025, adding that Cuba refused to accept him back because of his criminal history.

“Yordanis Cobos-Martinez has a past final order of removal to Cuba. He was most recently in ICE Dallas custody at the Bluebonnet Detention Center until he was released on an Order of Supervision on Jan. 13, 2025—under the Biden administration,” the DHS stated. “This barbaric criminal was released because Cuba would not accept him because of his criminal history.”

The murder comes as the Trump administration has highlighted crimes committed by illegal immigrants in a bid to deport large numbers of people from the United States.

Last week, ICE was sent to carry out operations to remove illegal immigrants in Chicago, officials said. On Sept. 12, during those operations, an illegal immigrant was shot in the Chicago area by an ICE official after dragging the officer with his vehicle, according to DHS.

The ICE agent was “fearing for his own life” after the individual drove his car at the agent, who then fired his weapon at the individual, the department stated.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 09:35

'Real' Retail Sales Rise For 11th Straight Month In August

'Brace yourself for a big beat' is the message from BofA's almost omniscient analysts ahead of this morning's retail sales print for August with the GDP-driving Control Group expected to be particularly hot...

...and once again they nailed it with headline retail sales rising 0.6% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third strong monthly rise in a row (with July's print revised stronger) - leading to a 5.0% YoY rise...

Source: Bloomberg

Core retail sales growth YoY is also surging...

Source: Bloomberg

Onleine sales dominated the upside MoM, along with Motor Vehicles & Clothing...

Source: Bloomberg

Furniture and Department Store sales saw the biggest MoM decline..

Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is nominal, so roughly adjusting for CPI, we see retail sales up 2.1% YoY (the 11th straight month of annual gains in real spending)

Source: Bloomberg

The most notable retail sales cohort - the Control Group - which feeds directly into the GDP calculation, surged 0.7% MoM (well above the 0.4% MoM expected) and up 5.9% YoY. Of course, this is nominal, but still a strong signal for the consumer.

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly a picture of a struggling consumer deal with hyperinflationary Trump tariffs?

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 08:39

US Futures Set For Another Record, Nasdaq On Pace For 10th Straight Gain

US equity futures are higher (duh) outperforming global counterparts, while the Nasdaq is on pace for a historic 10th day of gains. As of  8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures were higher by 0.2% with Oracle rising more than 5% in premarket trading on news it may soon be handed control of TikTok. S&P 500 contracts edged higher after the US benchmark powered through the 6,600 mark on Monday. Pre-mkt, Mag7 is displaying strength across multiple members with add’l TMT support from AVGO (+1.4%) and ORCL (+3.7%). Cyclicals and Semis are poised to lead but with pockets of strength in Defensives (HC, Staples) also seen. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.2%. Bond yields are flat to down 1bps with the US Dollar broadly weaker ahead of a widely expected 25bp cut and the resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle which paused in Dec 2024 (right after Trump was elected). US Treasuries have been racing past peers, the euro is nearing four-year highs and Goldman strategists caution that the next pain point for bond traders may come in the five-year part of the curve.  Both Cook and Miran will be a part of the vote. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales where Feroli is below the Street seeing a 0.1% MoM print and 0.3% for the Control Group.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: Tesla rises 1.3%, paring earlier gains after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened a probe over issues with door handles on certain Model Y vehicles. Alphabet gains 1.3% a day after the Google-parent on Monday joined an elite group of companies valued at more than $3 trillion (Nvidia -0.2%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple -0.01%, Amazon +0.5%, Meta Platforms +0.6%)

• Bloom Energy (BE) jumps 7% after Morgan Stanley boosted its price target on the fuel-cell manufacturer to a Street-high, saying the company is much more favorably positioned for success in powering AI data centers.
• Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) tumbles 15% after the restaurant operator reported adjusted earnings per share and revenue for the second quarter that came in well below the average analyst estimate.
• Hershey’s (HSY) gains 2% after Goldman Sachs double upgraded the shares. Analysts said market-share trends are improving, and there are incremental tailwinds ahead for the chocolate and confectionery company.
• New York Times (NYT) shares slip 1.9% after President Donald Trump filed a $15 billion defamation and libel lawsuit against the news organization.
• Oracle (ORCL) rises 5% after CBS News reported that the software giant is among a consortium of firms that would enable TikTok to continue operations in the US if a framework deal is finalized.
• Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) shares fall 1.5% as TD Cowen downgraded to hold from buy after the stock rallied even as Paramount is still to make an official offer.
• Webtoon Entertainment (WBTN) soars 47% after Walt Disney said it plans to acquire a 2% equity interest in the online comics company.

Stock bulls are riding high ahead of a widely expected 25-basis-point Fed cut on Wednesday (potentially as high as 50), the first move in a policy easing round projected to run into 2026. Rate-sensitive tech shares have led the charge in the post-Liberation Day rebound, fueled by enthusiasm over artificial intelligence. Asset managers are growing even more bullish according to the latest BofA survey. But stretched positioning in pockets of the market, with some funds already “maximum long”, is leaving it vulnerable to a shock.

 "Capex and profit forecasts linked to AI are overwhelming,” said Thomas Brenier, head of equities at Lazard Freres Gestion. “Look at Oracle, it seems that the sky is the limit.”

Expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts drove the dollar toward its weakest level since July. The euro climbed 0.4%, nearing its highest mark since 2021. The divergence reflects the Fed’s shift toward easing, in sharp contrast with the European Central Bank, where policymakers have signaled an end to their own loosening cycle. 

As the Nasdaq prints a nine-day winning streak, hedge funds net bought IT stocks at the fastest pace in seven months across all regions, according to Goldman's prime desk. With CTAs max long, corporates increasingly moving into buyout blackouts, and hedge funds likely only able to add at the margin, retail and discretionary investors are left to support equities. 

Meanwhile, the tensions between the Fed and Trump administration escalated Monday. An appeals court temporarily halted the effort to oust Governor Lisa Cook, while the Senate separately approved Trump’s economic adviser Stephen Miran for a seat on the board.

Later on Tuesday, traders are set for a final read on the American consumer. Retail sales data for August are forecast to show a 0.2% increase, following stronger advances in the previous two months, although real -time card spending data hints at an even higher print. Bloomberg economists Eliza Winger and Estelle Ou expect headline retail sales likely grew 0.2% in August, down from 0.5% in July, as auto sales slowed, noting spending remains modest overall with consumers concerned about tariffs and the economy. With the jobs market softening and prices rising, questions remain over how long consumers will keep spending freely.

“In the session ahead, we navigate US retail sales and that poses a degree of risk to markets,” wrote Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group. “However, with the Fed meeting looming large in the following session, it will likely take an outsized surprise in retail sales to really move the dial on risk.”

Stocks may have further upside as rising expectations for economic growth continue to buoy bullish sentiment, according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett. His latest fund manager survey found that a net 28% of global investors are overweight equities, the strongest reading in seven months. Views on growth also showed the biggest positive shift in nearly a year, with only a net 16% of respondents still anticipating an economic slowdown, Hartnett said.

Europe's Stoxx 600 falls 0.1% as the rally that sent US and Asian stocks to fresh highs sputters in Europe.  Italian banks dip on news that the government was drafting plans to raise another €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion) from lenders, while miners gained on the back of rising iron ore prices. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:

• European mining shares are the best performers in the Stoxx 600 benchmark on Tuesday after iron ore advanced, with China’s daily steel output showing signs of improvement
• Embracer gains as much as 5.5%, the biggest contributor to the Stoxx 600 Index, after Kepler Cheuvreux reiterated its buy rating and boosted its price target for the Swedish gaming group ahead of a spinoff of its Coffee Stain subsidiary
• ASML shares continue to rally Tuesday after JPMorgan said that the worst of newsflow is likely behind the chip-gear firm as better trends in both memory and logic end-markets bode well for the 2027 sales outlook
• Kering shares gain as much as 2.4% after CIC upgraded the French luxury firm to buy from hold on improved outlook following the new CEO’s plans, a creative revamp at Gucci, and its delayed Valentino purchase agreement
• Fresnillo rises as much as 4.6% in London after JPMorgan upgraded the precious metals firm’s price target to 2,500 pence from 2,100 pence and reiterated its overweight rating, as the bank sees further upside for the miner
• Kier Group rises as much as 9.4% as the infrastructure services and construction company reported full-year results that beat estimates on better-than-expected current trading and solid order book
• VusionGroup rises as much as 20%, the most since February, after the French tech group’s full-year sales forecast beat expectations and broker Gilbert Dupont upgraded its rating for the stock
• Yellow Cake shares rise as much as 8.4% in London, hitting their highest level since December, tracking a rise in global peers after the US Energy Secretary said the US should boost its strategic uranium reserve
• Shelf Drilling jumps as much as 34%, the most since August, after Ades increased its cash consideration for the offshore drilling contractor to NOK18.5 per share, from the Aug. 5 offer of NOK14 per share
• Haleon drops as much as 6.1% as Barclays downgrades its rating on the consumer-health company to equal-weight from overweight, based on a tough backdrop in the US
• Granges falls as much as 6.9% after Nordea cut its recommendation on the Swedish aluminum group to hold from buy, saying that while the company is set to gain market share, Nordea struggles to find an inflection point
• Schindler shares slide as much as 2.8% after one of its investors offloaded shares at a discount to Monday’s close. The stock is sliding for a second consecutive session after ending last week at an all-time high
• SThree shares plummet by as much as 28%, their biggest drop this year, after the recruitment company warned it is expecting subdued activity to persist into FY26, hitting its guidance for the year
• Italian banks underperformed on Tuesday after Bloomberg reported that the country’s government is working on a preliminary plan to raise an extra €1.5 billion from lenders in 2027 by postponing their tax deductions

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks surged to a fresh intra-day record, propelled by a rally in chip stocks after Beijing’s anti-monopoly ruling on Nvidia. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% to reach its highest level on record, as chip stocks such as TSMC and Samsung Electronics led gains. Investor sentiment remained upbeat also on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week. Chip stocks jumped on Tuesday after a Chinese regulator ruled that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws in its 2020 acquisition of networking gear maker Mellanox Technologies Ltd. The decision was interpreted by some investors as a signal of Beijing’s push to promote localization and self-sufficiency in chip technology, sparking gains in Chinese home-grown semiconductor firms. Asian equities have been on a tear recently, repeatedly testing a previous high set in 2021. Investor sentiment has gradually improved since April, boosted by easing trade tensions with the US and a resurgence in Chinese stocks due to AI developments and government efforts to cut overcapacity.  Here Are the Most Notable Movers

• The unlisted shares of India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. have surged after investors including global high-speed trading firms bought stakes in the company ahead of its foray into equities.
• Nintendo lost 3.3% after fans were left disappointed by the lack of a new Mario game announcement. Disco shares gained 8.2% after Morgan Stanley said it was its top pick in Japan’s chip sector.
• GCL Technology Holdings Ltd.’s stock rose after the Chinese company announced a share sale to help fund efforts to reduce overcapacity in the solar polysilicon sector.
• Disco shares rose as much as 7.6%, their biggest intraday gain since June 27.
• Nintendo shares lost as much as 4%, the most since June 20, after the firm’s Nintendo Direct event ended without an announcement of a major new Mario game for its Switch 2 console.
• LG Display shares surge as much as 14% on expectations that Apple’s new iPhones will help the Korean display panel supplier report stronger earnings.
• Yunfeng Financial shares slide as much as 15% in Hong Kong after the financial services company and a shareholder offer 191 million shares at HK$6.10 each in a top-up placement.
• Genda shares jump as much as 20% to the daily limit after the Japanese arcade operator reported half-year earnings, with operating profit rising 0.9% from a year earlier.
• Nitto Denko shares fall as much as 3.4%, the most since Aug. 4, after the Japanese specialty chemicals company conducted its annual investor’s meeting on Friday that saw an outlook decline in its new circuit products from the year before.

In FX, the dollar weakens for a second day, boosting G-10 peers. The euro touches highest since July, closing in on its strongest level in four years. Sterling hits a two-month high too after UK jobs data backed a slower pace of cuts by the Bank of England.

In rates, US Treasuries were little changed, with the 10-year yield at 4.04% and European bond markets, mixed for gilts. US government bonds have outpaced global peers this year, delivering a 5.8% return as expectations for policy easing reversed widely held bearish views. 

In commodities, gold hits another record high, trading about $19 higher on the session to around $3,697/oz. Oil prices dip, with Brent slipping closer to $67/barrel.

Today's economic data slate includes August retail sales and import/export prices and September New York Fed services business activity (8:30am), August industrial production (9:15am), and July business inventories and September NAHB housing market index (10am).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.1%
• DAX -0.3%
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield -1 basis point at 4.03%
• VIX -0.2 points at 15.48
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1191.97
• euro +0.4% at $1.1808
• WTI crude -0.4% at $63.03/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Lisa Cook is set to take part in the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow after an appeals court blocked Donald Trump from firing the Fed governor. So is Stephen Miran, who was confirmed in a 48-47 Senate vote. BBG
• The SEC said it’s prioritizing Trump’s proposal to reduce the frequency of earnings reports after the president called for an end to quarterly disclosures. BBG
• Trump said Congressional Republicans are working on a short-term clean extension of government funding to stop Senate Minority Leader Schumer from shutting down the government.
• Trump signed a Presidential Memorandum to establish the Memphis Safe Task Force which was said to be a replica of efforts in Washington DC and will include the National Guard. Furthermore, Trump stated they are probably going to go in Chicago next and want to get to New Orleans, while he also commented that they need to save St. Louis.
• A group of GOP senators are working on legislation to extend Affordable Care Act subsidies with policy changes designed to win over conservatives, according to four people granted anonymity to disclose private discussions. Politico
• US reportedly looks to boost national strategic uranium stockpile: BBG 
• Trump has filed a defamation lawsuit against the NYT seeking $15bn in damages from the media organization he accused of being a “mouthpiece” for the Democratic party. FT
• China has significant leverage when it comes to trade negotiations with Washington, including rare earth supplies and agricultural product purchases (China has halted US soybean purchases, delivering a punishing blow to American farmers). NYT
• The world must invest $540 billion annually in oil and gas exploration through 2050 to sustain output, the IEA said. Without new discoveries or demand shifts, supply may shrink by more than 5 million b/d each year — around 40% higher than it was in 2010. BBG
• The US will start formally implementing a lower 15% tariff on imports of Japanese autos and parts starting today. BBG
• Switzerland’s conservative central bank has quietly become one of the world’s biggest tech investors, amassing a stock portfolio that is equivalent in value to nearly a fifth of the national economy’s annual output. The Swiss National Bank has US equity holdings amounting $16bn, with more than $42bn invested in megacap tech. FT
• The UK labor market showed stabilizing signs after a slump triggered by higher taxes. Payrolls dropped by 8,000 in August and vacancies increased for the first time since early 2024, leaving the BOE on track to hold rates later this week. The pound gained. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said he is undecided regarding a TikTok stake, and he will speak with Chinese President Xi about a significant agreement, while he believes discussions with Xi will confirm key matters.
• US opened an inclusions window for the section 232 on steel and aluminium in which the Bureau of Industry and Security established a process for including additional derivative steel and aluminium articles within the scope of the duties authorised by the President under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962.
• Playbook citing officials reports that the forum for any UK-US talks on steel/aluminium would be a bilateral meeting, however as of Monday night there was reportedly no sign of a sit-down between UK Chancellor Reeves and US Treasury Secretary Bessent.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed amid some cautiousness ahead of upcoming risk events and despite the fresh record levels on Wall St, where the mega-caps did most of the lifting as Alphabet joined the USD 3tln market cap club. ASX 200 marginally gained with the index led by strength in mining, resources and materials, but with gains capped by weakness in defensives. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses following an early unprecedented climb to above the 45,000 milestone on return from the extended weekend, while the calendar was quiet, although lower US tariffs on Japan took effect. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued despite the recent talks in Madrid where the US and China reached a framework agreement on TikTok although the details were scarce, while US President Trump and Chinese President Xi are scheduled to talk on Friday.

Top Asian News

• Japan's Finance Minister Kato reiterated it is not appropriate to lower the consumption tax and he has decided to support Agricultural Minister Koizumi in the LDP leadership race.
• China is issuing measures on increasing consumption, according to Xinhua. Will launch a series of consumption promotion activities. Will enhance supply of quality services. Will promote an orderly opening up of sectors including the internet and cultures. Will expand pilots in telecoms, medicine and education sectors. Will extend business hours for tourist sites and museums. Will increase consumption credit support. Will coordinate funding channels, including local government special bonds, for new cultural and tourism facilities.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened around the unchanged mark, but sentiment then slipped as markets turned risk-off across the board in the continent. That pressure has since slowed down a little and are off worst levels – but indices are still broadly lower. European sectors are broadly on the backfoot, in-fitting with the risk tone. IT is towards the top of the pile, boosted by strength across Dutch semiconductor names; nothing really driving the upside today, but it does come after ASML (+3%) once again overtook SAP, to become Europe’s largest company. Consumer Staples is found towards the bottom of the pile; Unilever (-1%) moves lower after it appointed a new CFO.

Top European News

• ECB's Villeroy says French growth is not strong enough, but remains positive.

FX

• DXY is on the backfoot; currently trading towards lows of 96.96 Another weak start of the session for the index which remained subdued in APAC hours after weakening yesterday alongside softer US yields and with the greenback not helped by a drop in the NY Fed Manufacturing Survey. Participants now await Industrial Production and Retail Sales data scheduled later today, while the FOMC will also begin its 2-day policy meeting which will be attended by Fed's Cook and Miran, after a US Appeals Court denied the Justice Department's request to put on hold a judge's ruling temporarily blocking Trump from removing Cook, and the US Senate confirmed Miran to join the Fed board.
• EUR/USD mildly benefits from recent dollar weakness and after ECB officials reiterated that interest rates are in a good place. In data, EUR held onto gains following mixed German ZEW survey (Economic Sentiment beat and surprisingly improved but Current Conditions missed and deteriorated), whilst the EZ metrics improved. EUR/USD eventually eclipsed 1.1800 to a current high at 1.1817.
• USD/JPY is softer amid USD weakness and broader JPY strength, with analysts at ING attributing some of the JPY upside to "the more moderate Shinjiro Koizumi is entering the LDP leadership race against Sanae Takaichi, who is seen as yen bearish for her views on loose monetary and fiscal policy." USD/JPY found resistance near its 21 DMA (147.65) to trade in a current range between 146.69-147.54.
• GBP is benefitting from broader dollar weakness and ahead of US President Trump's state visit to the UK, with a presser (likely joint) due on Thursday before the US leader's departure. UK jobs data this morning were largely in line, but a slightly above-forecast employment change prompted a couple of pips of upside in cable, but nothing to write home about. Pricing remains unchanged with markets firmly expecting no change at the BoE this Thursday, with some 97% chance of a hold. Cable trades in a 1.3598-1.3642 range.
• Antipodeans trade rangebound with a slightly softer bias and following an uneventful APAC session. Comments from RBA's Hunter and Hauser provided little to shift the dial - the former noted they are close to getting inflation to the target and that risks around the outlook are balanced.

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat, awaiting the FOMC on Wednesday, but before that, we have a Tier 1 release in the form of retail sales. Expected at +0.2% M/M in August (prev. 0.5%), while the ex-autos measure is seen rising +0.4% M/M, matching the July reading, and the Retail Control group is seen +0.4% M/M (prev. +0.5%). Thereafter, issuance in focus with a 20yr Bond auction scheduled. No concession seen in trade this morning, but that could change in the hours ahead. Elsewhere, the composition of the Fed remains in focus as Cook will remain on the board for at least the September meeting following a court update. Additionally, White House official Miran has been formally approved and will be partaking in the September meeting. Currently, USTs reside in a very thin 113-11 to 113-16 band.
• Bunds are in-fitting with peers throughout the European morning. Gapped higher around the cash equity open, seemingly as a function of the pressure seen in the equity space around this point. German ZEW for September was mixed. Economic sentiment came in above consensus and seemingly spurred some modest pressure in Bunds with financial market experts cautiously optimistic. However, the current situation has deteriorated amid ongoing US tariff concern and into the German fiscal reform window. As such, Bunds quickly retraced that pressure and are back to pre-release levels. Thereafter, a weaker-than-prior German 2030 auction spurred another bout of pressure in Bunds, back towards earlier lows of 128.54.
• Gilts are modestly lower. No significant follow-through from the morning’s jobs data. Overall, the release was broadly in-line with consensus with the labour market continuing to cool though the pace of this is seemingly beginning to slow. While the continued slowing is arguably a dovish sign, it is counteracted by the (as expected) uptick in wages, which remain at levels likely inconsistent with inflation sustainably settling at target over the medium term. Note, the next CPI release is Wednesday, where the headline Y/Y is expected at 3.8% (prev. 3.8%). Elsewhere, supply was soft. A sub-3x cover and a chunky tail, reminiscent of the auction before last. Results of this sent Gilts lower by just under 10 ticks, but comfortably within existing parameters. Gilts opened the morning unchanged from Monday’s close at 91.47, before briefly dipping to a 91.31 low and then retracing to a 91.57 peak.
• UK sells GBP 3bln 4.375% 2040 Gilt: b/c 2.95x (prev. 3.69x), average yield 5.048% (prev. 5.066%) & tail 0.9bps (prev. 0.1bps)
• Germany sells EUR 3.491bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.20% 2030 Bobl: b/c 1.70x (prev. 1.90x), average yield 2.29% (prev. 2.32%) & retention 22.42% (prev. 23.19%)

Commodities

• Subdued trade in the crude complex with aggressive losses seen around the time of the European cash equity open which also came despite USD weakness. One of the bearish factors could be reports that the 19th EU sanctions package against Russia is no longer expected to be presented on Wednesday, via Politico citing an EU diplomat (since corroborated by other reports); no detail on when the sanctions would be unveiled. WTI currently resides in a USD 62.89-63.55/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 67.01-67.68/bbl range.
• Spot gold holds an upward bias as it continues printing fresh records on its way to USD 3,700/oz against the backdrop of a softer dollar and heightened geopolitics. Spot gold currently resides in a USD 3,674.70-3,697.40/oz range with the top end of the band the latest all-time high.
• Base metals are mostly softer despite the softer dollar and gains in US futures, albeit the mood in Europe is slightly more mixed. 3M LME copper holds above USD 10k/t and resides in a USD 10,087.90-10,177.70/t range at the time of writing.
• Commerzbank revises its gold price forecast upward to USD 3,600/oz for end-year; raises silver year-end forecast for 2025 to USD 41/oz and 2026-end forecast to USD 43/oz.
• Thai Central Bank says they have discussed tax on gold trades; to support gold trades in Dollars; other measures on gold trades were discussed.
• Ukraine's military says it struck Russia's Saratov oil refinery (140k BPD) in overnight attack.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel has launched its ground incursion into Gaza City, two Israeli officials told CNN early Tuesday; One of the officials said the ground incursion is going to be “phased and gradual” at the beginning.
• Israel military official says will be increasing the amount of troops into Gaza city as the days go by.
• US President Trump said Israel won't be attacking Qatar.
• US President Trump posted about Hamas moving hostages above ground to use them as human shields and stated "I hope the Leaders of Hamas know what they’re getting into if they do such a thing. This is a human atrocity, the likes of which few people have ever seen before. Don’t let this happen or, ALL “BETS” ARE OFF. RELEASE ALL HOSTAGES NOW!"
• US Secretary of State Rubio said before heading to Qatar, that they hope Qatar will re-engage on Gaza talks despite everything that's happened, while he added that they have a very short window in which a deal on Gaza can happen and that they are on the verge of finalising an enhanced defence cooperation agreement with Qatar.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Polish government is boosting its cyber security budget to a record EUR 1bn this year, after Russian sabotage attempts targeted hospitals and urban water supplies, according to FT.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said Japan pledged to comply with WTO rules, but will consider measures to raise pressure on Russia and coordinate with G7 countries, when asked about US requests to G7 for higher sanctions on India and China for buying Russian oil.
• The 19th EU sanctions package against Russia is now off the agenda for Wednesday's EU ambassadors meeting, no new date has been set, via an EU official. Confirmation of earlier reporting via Politico
• Russia says its drones have struck a Ukrainian gas distribution station reportedly used by the military.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Aug Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.5%
• 8:30 am: Aug Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
• 8:30 am: Aug Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.4%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30 am: Aug Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.4%
• 8:30 am: Aug Import Price Index YoY, est. 0%, prior -0.2%
• 9:15 am: Aug Industrial Production MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
• 9:15 am: Aug Capacity Utilization, est. 77.4%, prior 77.5%
• 10:00 am: Jul Business Inventories, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00 am: Sep NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 33, prior 32

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I woke up this morning the father of a 10-year-old daughter. Where did the time go? Don't tell my family as it's a surprise for tonight, but I spent part of the summer writing and recording a new song and creating a video celebrating Maisie's first decade. The world premiere at home will be after a night out at an escape room tonight... if we escape.

As we await tomorrow’s FOMC decision, markets have continued to power forward over the last 24 hours, with risk appetite supported by positive noises out of the US-China trade talks. That newsflow led to growing optimism that some kind of longer-term truce would eventually be reached between the two, and those hopes of a cooling in the trade war meant both the S&P 500 (+0.47%) and the NASDAQ (+0.94%) closed at another record high. Moreover, it was a decent session for sovereign bonds as well, thanks to mounting anticipation that the Fed would deliver another rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting. So, it was a strong day all round, and US Treasuries also rallied across the curve, with the 10yr yield (-2.8bps) falling back to 4.04%.

Ahead of today's start to the FOMC, an appeals court last night blocked Mr Trump from firing Lisa Cook from the Fed board before her appeal against her dismissal is heard. So, she will likely be at the meeting barring any additional legal action. Stephen Miran could also sit as he was confirmed in his new post by the Senate last night. So, it's shaping up to be an interesting 2-day meeting.

On those US-China headlines, Trump himself posted that the meeting in Madrid “has gone VERY WELL!” and that he would be speaking with President Xi on Friday. Separately, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that “we do have a framework for the deal with TikTok”. This collectively led to a fresh burst of optimism, particularly around stocks which are more exposed to US-China trade. For instance, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index (+0.87%) outperformed, which is an index made up of US-listed companies who do a majority of their business in China.

That positive trade narrative spread across markets, helping to lift global equities as investors grew more hopeful on the path of US-China relations. After all, there’s still a lot of tension between the two sides, and it’s worth remembering that the tariffs are still subject to a temporary 90-day truce in place between the two sides, which currently runs out in November. The hope is that continued engagement will eventually lead to a more durable truce, avoiding the possibility of US tariffs jumping back up to the 145% rate seen after Liberation Day. Indeed, US Trade Representative Greer said on the tariff extension, that “We’re certainly open to considering further action there, if the talks continue in a positive direction”.

This backdrop led to a fresh global advance, with the S&P 500 (+0.47%) at another all-time high whilst in Europe the Stoxx 600 (+0.42%) closed 1% from its all-time high reached back in March. In fact, the S&P 500 is now on track to have risen for 6 of the last 7 weeks, which would be the most sustained advance of 2025 so far. Those moves were led by tech stocks, with both the NASDAQ (+0.94%) and the Magnificent 7 (+1.95%) hitting fresh highs of their own. Alphabet (+4.49%) became the fourth company to reach a $3trn valuation while Tesla (+3.56%) also outperformed following news that Elon Musk had purchased around $1bn worth of Tesla shares. Nvidia lost ground after China found they’d violated their antitrust law with a deal in 2020, but its stock was only down -0.04% by the close. The strong day ended with the S&P 500 up +12.47% for the year, even as most of its constituents were lower on the day.

For sovereign bonds, it was generally a strong day as well. But French bonds saw a relative underperformance after Friday’s news that Fitch Ratings had downgraded their credit rating from AA- to A+. Yields on 10yr OATs (-2.8bps) were only down a bit to 3.48%, whilst those on Italian BTPs fell by a larger -4.7bps to 3.47%. That’s a significant move, because it’s the first time since 1999 that France’s 10yr yield has closed above Italy’s, having briefly moved above on an intraday basis last week. Clearly this trend has been apparent for some time, but it’s a striking re-ordering of how investors perceive the risk of different sovereigns, having been in a completely different place at the height of the Euro crisis in the early 2010s.

In absolute terms however, it was still a strong day for sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. For example, US Treasury yields came down across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-1.9bps) falling to 3.54%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.8bps) fell to 4.04%, which further helped to ease fears about the fiscal trajectory. The bond rally got a further push from the NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey for September, which fell to a 3-month low of -8.7 (vs. +5.0 expected), coming in beneath every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. So that helped to boost expectations for a faster cycle of Fed rate cuts, with the amount of cuts priced in by the June meeting up +2.0bps on the day to 120bps. And that move lower for yields was clear across the rest of Europe too, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.4bps) and gilts (-3.9bps) both falling as well.
The lower rates backdrop weighed on the dollar, with the dollar index (-0.25%) falling to its lowest in almost eight weeks. Meanwhile, gold (+0.98%) reached a record high for the ninth time in twelve sessions at $3,679/oz.

In Asia, the KOSPI (+1.18%) is leading gains, touching a new peak as heavyweight chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are sharply higher while the Nikkei (+0.50%) is also trading in positive territory after returning from a holiday. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.12%) is swinging between gains and losses while on the mainland the CSI (-0.39%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.10%) are bucking the positive regional trend with both drifting lower after strong recent gains. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.31%) is also edging higher. S&P 500 (+0.09%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.14%) futures are also trading slightly higher.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales and industrial production for August, the German ZEW survey for September, Canada’s CPI for August, and the UK’s latest employment report. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Escriva.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 08:29

A Circular Economy & The Four Archetypes Of Bitcoiners

Authored by Fernando Motolese via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Trying to build a Bitcoin circular economy in Brazil and lobbying politicians led me to uncovering four archetypes of Bitcoiners: the coordinators, the market pragmatists, the monetary purists, and the Bitcoin minimalists. Here’s what I’ve learned...

A few years ago, I made an unlikely bet: to build a Bitcoin circular economy in the heart of a fishing village in Brazil’s Northeast. No venture capitalists, no “crypto,” no empty promises. Only nodes, satoshis, in‑person education and plenty of sidewalk conversations. 

That is how Praia Bitcoin Jericoacoara was born: a radical experiment in financial sovereignty built with open source tools and feet in the sand.

In four years at Praia Bitcoin Jericoacoara, we turned a beach town into a living Bitcoin classroom: We onboarded families, shopkeepers and street vendors; taught self‑custody in small groups; installed reliable Lightning routes and point‑of‑sale tools; ran social programs paid in sats; and hosted meetups that made Bitcoin part of daily life.

Living on the Bitcoin standard, I began to see what is really happening at the technological edge. 

In August 2025, I published four short articles on X. Different in form and tone, they converged on the same question: What role should Bitcoin play, and what role should we play in building it? They came in fours:

• a field report on our work with the Bitcoin Community Bank in Jericoacoara

• a critique of bitcoin maximalism’s rigidity

• a diplomatic letter inviting Bhutan’s prime minister to consider the satoshi as a unit of account, and

• a public appeal to keep Bitcoin a peer‑to‑peer cash system. 

What they share is the desire to align practice, theory, and a future‑facing vision.

In the first piece, I shared the challenges and lessons from a real experiment: building a Bitcoin‑based circular economy in Northeast Brazil. Inspired by Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador, we rooted the Jericoacoara project in education, inclusion and local infrastructure. We installed servers, onboarded merchants and neighbors, created social programs and sought institutional recognition as a Community Bitcoin Bank.

Building a Bitcoin Circular Economy in Jericoacoara

I’m deeply inspired by the progress of @BitcoinEkasi, the momentum of the #spedn movement across Africa, and the compelling journey of @orphansofuganda. These initiatives prove that Bitcoin can serve as a true medium of… pic.twitter.com/KiGndjGZen

— Praia Bitcoin Brazil ⚡ (@BitcoinBeachBR) August 2, 2025

We were rejected by the local authorities. Even in the face of the state’s legal and political unpreparedness, we moved forward with conviction. We believe that when Bitcoin is rooted in place, it can be more than money; it can be a tool for community transformation. Yet authorities struggled to understand this, and they denied our request to register what would have been the first Bitcoin community bank.

In the second piece, I confronted an ideological tension within the community itself. Maximalist rhetoric, which defends Bitcoin as the only legitimate project and treats the rest of “crypto” as scams, had its historical role. It helped protect the integrity of the ecosystem, exposed frauds and accelerated market maturation. But does it still serve the goal of large‑scale adoption? Does it help communicate Bitcoin’s value to newcomers? I caught myself ignoring relevant technological solutions simply because they were outside the maximalist bubble. 

After revisiting the discussion and reading every reply and quote, my conclusion was that other projects end up serving as funnels, sandboxes or distribution channels that drive people toward real Bitcoin adoption. Stablecoins, altcoins, memecoins, and centralized cryptocurrencies are moving toward Bitcoin, absorbing inflation and even helping to establish the prices of other commodities. Perhaps it is time for a new posture: not abandoning principles, but embracing a Bitcoin that keeps the focus on the essence while remaining willing to engage with a world in constant transformation, with skepticism and an open mind; by educating regulators that Bitcoin is the decentralized cryptocurrency and that all other projects are centralized cryptocurrencies.

In the third piece, I took this vision into the diplomatic arena. I wrote an open letter to Bhutan’s prime minister suggesting that the country consider adopting the satoshi as its national unit of account.

Open Letter to Dr. Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Bhutan

Your Excellency @tsheringtobgay,
It is with deep respect and admiration that I write to you, recognizing Bhutan’s remarkable journey in preserving its sovereignty, cultural identity, and commitment to Gross National… pic.twitter.com/2tuTgfzAQi

— Praia Bitcoin Brazil ⚡ (@BitcoinBeachBR) August 19, 2025

The proposal, more symbolic than technical, had a clear goal: to imagine how Bitcoin can engage with alternative development models that do not depend on the IMF or the dollar and that respect local culture and sovereignty. The reaction to the letter revealed something important: even within the Bitcoin ecosystem there are ideological lanes: conservatives, centrists and progressives, each trying to interpret the protocol through a distinct worldview.

This article is therefore a point of convergence. It ties together those three experiences (practical, ideological and diplomatic) to propose a fresh look at what we are really trying to build. More than repeating dogmas, this moment calls for discernment. More than talking about freedom, it is time to practice it where it is most needed — on the ground, in our language, in our institutions and in our relationships.

In the fourth piece, I distilled my open note to Bitcoin Core into a simple point: keep Bitcoin a peer‑to‑peer cash system, not a generic data host.

Hello @bitcoincoreorg,

We live Bitcoin. We dedicate our lives to it, full time, nonstop. On the ground, we work as part of Bitcoin’s invisible team, often without salaries, simply because we believe in its power to fix money and defend society from injustice and… pic.twitter.com/QLieljdVJn

— Praia Bitcoin Brazil ⚡ (@BitcoinBeachBR) August 23, 2025

I argued that loosening default data‑carrying settings invites bloat, legal risk and reputational damage, and asked developers to think in centuries, not release cycles. I also noted that recent Core releases, v29 and v30, revisited how much extra data transactions may carry by default. That lives at the technical edge of the protocol — software defaults, not the monetary rules. Bitcoin is money. Like a banknote you can scribble on but not use to publish a book, transactions can include small notes but should not be hijacked for unrelated content.

This context raised a bigger question: What do we want Bitcoin to be? The exchange made the fault lines clear: different groups love Bitcoin for different reasons and accept different trade‑offs. In the next section, I name those lanes and show how they fit together.

Watching Bitcoin Knots gain visibility relative to Bitcoin Core, and hearing developers complain about its pull‑request process, reminded me of the First Follower lesson. Knots is largely maintained by a single developer. 

Movements do not scale because a lone leader is brilliant. They scale when early followers make participation visible and easy, lowering social risk and showing others exactly how to behave.

From inside the industry, spending countless hours analyzing geopolitics and future trends, I began to see Bitcoiners in four main categories, with the extremes on both sides clearly defined so let’s break them down. 

The Four Archetypes of Bitcoin Bitcoin Database, Coordination Builders

Core belief: Bitcoin is a neutral public record. It can coordinate people and software. Money is one powerful use, not the only one.

What they prioritize: Time‑stamps and proofs; public records; identity attestations; new media on Bitcoin; social protocols like Nostr; building most features on upper layers so L1 stays stable.

What they get right: They attract builders and new users with fresh ideas and on‑ramps. More experiments mean more chances to find lasting utility.

Risks and blind spots: The spotlight can drift away from money. Too much nonmonetary data can waste block space and invite controversy. New systems sometimes reintroduce trusted middlemen.

Attitude to Lightning: Open, when it helps apps feel instant. Also explore other rails. Keep L1 simple.

North Star checks: Useful apps with real users; active developers; low, respectful footprint on L1.

Frequent examples: Casey Rodarmor and Ordinals; Muneeb Ali and Stacks; Burak and Ark research; Maxim Orlovsky and RGB; fiatjaf and Nostr; OpenTimestamps. (Note: this is illustrative, not endorsements.)

Tagline: “Bitcoin is a database.”

Bitcoin Central, Market Pragmatists

Core belief: Bitcoin is money and an asset. Price and liquidity drive adoption at scale and help fund security and development.

What they prioritize: ETFs and treasuries; compliant on‑ramps and off‑ramps; deep, healthy markets; education for investors and institutions.

What they get right: Liquidity brings the next wave of users and pays for builders, mining and education.

Risks and blind spots: Convenience custody and short‑term thinking. Distribution can concentrate in a few large hands.

Attitude to Lightning: Pragmatic. Use it when it helps reach more people.

North Star checks: Market depth and volumes; hashrate security budget; ETF and retail participation.

Frequent examples: Michael Saylor; iShares and Fidelity Bitcoin ETFs; market makers; on‑chain analysts. Edge Case: High leverage and over‑reliance on corporate treasuries.

Tagline: “We care about price.”

Bitcoin Conservatives, Monetary Purists

Core belief: Bitcoin is money. Protect the base layer. Scarcity, neutrality and self‑custody are nonnegotiable. Save first, then spend (e.g., in a circular economy).

What they prioritize: Simple, stable rules on L1; run your own node; education on keys, UTXOs, and fees; miner and client diversity; long time horizons.

What they get right: Clear incentives and strong culture. If money is broken, every price in the economy is wrong. Fix money first.

Risks and blind spots: UX and payments can lag. Newcomers may feel gatekept. Adoption can slow if everyday use is ignored.

Attitude to Lightning: Often skeptical. Prefer on‑chain finality and warn about complexity and custodial drift.

North Star checks: More coins in self‑custody; healthy node count; decentralized mining; growing long‑term holder supply.

Frequent examples: Saifedean Ammous; Pierre Rochard; proof‑of‑keys style campaigns; full‑node culture and cold storage. Edge Case: Never sell. Treat every altcoin as a scam.

Tagline: “Bitcoin is digital gold.”

Bitcoin Minimalists: Digital Gold and Digital Cash, Tool for Social Transformation

Core belief: Bitcoin should be digital gold for saving and digital cash for spending, with the smallest possible trust surface.

What they prioritize: Save on‑chain with final settlement; spend via noncustodial Lightning where possible; use ecash mints like Cashu for privacy with simple exit to keys; merchant flows that settle to self custody.

What they get right: Align savings and daily use without giving up sovereignty.

Risks and blind spots: Friction and slower distribution; reluctance to adopt UX abstractions; fragmentation across minimal stacks.

Attitude to Lightning: Yes, but strict. Prefer noncustodial or minimally trusted setups. Be cautious with large custodial hubs.

North‑star checks: Users who both save on‑chain and spend via non‑custodial L2; easy withdrawals to keys; high payment success without custodians.

Tagline: “Buy, spend, replace.”

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s culture includes four honest defaults that often talk past one another. Builders expand the surface area, market pragmatists prove everyday utility, monetary purists scale distribution and minimalists protect the base.

Together. they create a productive tension that keeps Bitcoin useful and resilient for real people.

After years of working in a circular economy and writing publicly about these debates, my view is simple. Bitcoin is money. Keep the base layer simple. Save in bitcoin on-chain. Spend in sats when it serves people, as it does in a circular economy. Support Lightning only when the exit to your own keys stays clear and simple. I do not support the “Bitcoin as Database” path, because turning Bitcoin into a general data host distracts from its monetary mission and invites waste, confusion, and reputational harm.

The way forward is practical and principled. Judge ideas by whether they grow self custody, make payments reliable without custodians, deepen liquidity that funds security and education and respect the limits of the base layer. If we hold to that standard, the lanes can complement one another and more people will share in the benefits of a free, neutral and credibly decentralized money.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 08:05

Ground Beef Inflation Sizzles, Egg Prices Cool Off

The best bang for the buck in the grocery store protein aisle this year hasn't been beef, it's been eggs. Prices have plummeted thanks to President Trump's swift action to fix the Biden-Harris regime's botched bird flu culling disaster. By contrast, ground beef has surged to a record $6.32 per pound, squeezed by the smallest US cattle herd in decades, with a bleak outlook despite some signs of a rebuilding phase nearing. 

Here's more from Bloomberg: 

For more than a year, egg prices have served as the poster child for the higher cost of living in the US. That distinction may soon move over to the beef market, said Darin Parker, president of global meat trader Parker-Migliorini International Llc. Parker warns that Americans will keep paying more for burgers as restrictions on Brazilian imports further squeeze already tight domestic supplies. Indeed, one measure of US retail prices shows that ground beef has climbed more than 10% since January, while eggs dropped nearly 30%.

Beef inflation is sticky, while egg prices have cooled.

Egg prices are back to pre-crisis levels. 

Meanwhile.

Related:

• 12-Year Cattle Cycle Bottoms: Tyson CEO Predicts Rebuild Phase Beginning Next Year

• Tyson Foods Confirms Protein Switching Underway Amid Record High Beef Prices

• Got Beef? 12-Year Cycle Signals "Cyclical Low"

• Cattle Herd Rebuild Begins Just As Consumers Get Slaughtered By Record Beef Prices

The next cattle herd rebuild cycle must bring small, family-run ranchers back into the fold if America wants a resilient domestic beef supply.

Supporting independent journalism goes hand in hand with supporting independent ranchers - both make this nation stronger. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 06:55

"Be Warned, We Are Hunting You": Trump Unleashes Second Attack On 'Narcoterrorists' Near Venezuela

With Venezuela President Maduro stating the country is readying for an "armed struggle", President Trump has unleashed hell on a second vessel ferrying drugs from Venezuela, confirming his determination to proceed with attacks.

US forces “conducted a SECOND Kinetic Strike against positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists” in the US Southern Command’s area of responsibility, Trump wrote in a social media post.

“The Strike occurred while these confirmed narcoterrorists from Venezuela were in International Waters transporting illegal narcotics  (A DEADLY WEAPON POISONING AMERICANS!) headed to the U.S.”

Trump continued:

"These extremely violent drug trafficking cartels POSE A THREAT to U.S. National Security, Foreign Policy, and vital U.S. Interests.

The Strike resulted in 3 male terrorists killed in action.

No U.S. Forces were harmed in this Strike. 

The post included a link to a video that showed a vessel rolling in the waves in unidentified waters. After several seconds it is consumed by a massive fireball.

. @POTUS “This morning, on my Orders, U.S. Military Forces conducted a SECOND Kinetic Strike against positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. The Strike occurred while these confirmed… pic.twitter.com/KQYiEpqsGb

— DOW Rapid Response (@DOWResponse) September 15, 2025

Trump concluded with a warning:

"BE WARNED — IF YOU ARE TRANSPORTING DRUGS THAT CAN KILL AMERICANS, WE ARE HUNTING YOU!

The illicit activities by these cartels have wrought DEVASTATING CONSEQUENCES ON AMERICAN COMMUNITIES FOR DECADES, killing millions of American Citizens.

NO LONGER.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!”

Just hours earlier, Maduro reiterated that recent incidents between his country and the United States are an "aggression" by the U.S., not tensions between the two countries, and that there is no communication between the governments.

Also on Sunday Trump while talking to reporters in Morristown, New Jersey, suggested he would not rule out strikes on mainland Venezuela, amid speculation that Maduro could at some point retaliate in some form.

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"We'll see what happens," Trump said. "Venezuela is sending us their gang members, their drug dealers, and drugs. It's not acceptable."

Just as the second Monday strike was being widely reported, The Intercept issued some new information concerning the first strike, which occurred on September 2:

Last Tuesday, senior staff from House leadership and relevant committees were barred by the Office of the Secretary of War from attending a briefing on the first attack, according to three government sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The military cited “alternative compensatory control measures” — the term for enhanced security procedures designed to keep information under wraps — as the reason.

The War Department has attempted to conceal numerous details about the attack that killed 11 people in the Caribbean, including the fact that the vessel altered its course and appeared to have turned back toward shore prior to the strikes. Men on board were said to have survived an initial strike, The Intercept reported last week. They were then killed shortly after in a follow-up attack.

If this continues to escalate, and it looks to - given this latest strike, there will be serious questions raised about Congressional involvement - especially if limited briefings are only happening after the fact. For example, it is only now belatedly emerging that the first strike came from a drone attack, according to one of the lone Congressional dissenters, Republican Rep. Rand Paul.

"A very small number of Senate and House staffers, mostly from the Armed Services committees, received highly classified briefings about the attack last Tuesday, after the military delayed the meeting for days," The Intercept detailed further. "Staff for key members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which oversee war powers, were conspicuously absent."

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 06:55

Speculation Is Swirling About The Future Of Turkiye's S-400s

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Turkish media recently claimed that Russia offered to buy back their country’s S-400s that it received in 2019 in order to then resell them to other clients, which Turkiye is supposedly receptive to since it wants to end its spat with the US over this and is also developing a domestic analogue that can replace them. 

Polish media added that “Ankara still does not actively use them. They were never integrated into NATO, their missiles are already halfway through their shelf life, and maintenance costs pose a burden”.

Meanwhile, Indian media suggested that this deal could result in their country finally receiving its delayed S-400s, which would first have to be upgraded by Russia. While neither Russia nor Turkiye have confirmed this report, it’s sensible enough to be taken seriously for the time being at least. Russia can’t spare any S-400s from the front for export, Turkiye has since largely reconciled with the US and no longer needs the S-400s either, while India is eager to receive more of these systems as soon as possible.

Each corresponding party’s interests are more urgent than ever because:

• Russia needs to regain its rapidly declining role in the global arms market after most of its production has been redirected from export to the front since 2022;

• the new TRIPP Corridor creates the basis for a US-Turkish military-strategic partnership along Russia’s entire southern periphery so long as the S-400-related US sanctions are first lifted;

• and spring’s Indo-Pak clashes made air defense a renewed priority for Delhi.

The original goal behind Turkiye’s import of the S-400s is no longer relevant either. Back then, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan deeply distrusted the US due to its (at minimum indirect) role in summer 2016’s failed coup, hence why he agreed to this air defense deal a year later. Turkiye was also very displeased with direct US military support for Ankara-designated Kurdish terrorists in Syria. After TRIPP and Jolani’s/Sharaa’s rise to power, however, the aforesaid imperatives became outdated for the most part.

The stage is therefore set for a grand deal between the US, Turkiye, Russia, and India, at least in theory and only tacitly in the case of the US-Russia, US-India, and Turkiye-India, but it remains to be seen whether it’ll materialize.

There are some forces that might torpedo it though, chiefly hardliners in the US and Russia, who might respectively object to the principle of a NATO ally selling military equipment back to Moscow and Russia buying back a weapons system that it sold to a NATO ally who now funds Ukraine.

Each side’s hardliners would therefore have to be sidelined in order for this deal to go through and it can’t be assumed that both Trump and Putin are able to do so in the current political conditions amidst escalating US-Russian tensions.

Furthermore, the US is also taking a hard line against India nowadays led by Trump personally, which reduces the odds that it would agree to have Turkiye indirectly supply India with Russia’s S-400s after Trump just punitively tariffed India for continuing to buy Russian arms.

Accordingly, while the details of this proposed arrangement make perfect sense with respect to each side’s interests as explained, political factors vis-à-vis the calculations of American and Russian hardliners could ultimately ruin any possibility for such a deal.

If the political will exists at each of those two’s highest levels, however, then it’s recommended that they encourage their media surrogates to articulate the inherent strategic benefits in order to help persuade the hardliners to reconsider their resistance.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 06:30

How Much Metal Can $10K Buy?

The prices of metals reflect a contrast between rarity, utility, and value.

This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, breaks down how much of each metal you could purchase with $10,000, showing their respective weights in kilograms.

At one end of the scale, $10,000 barely buys a handful of gold dust. On the other, it secures literal tons of industrial metals like aluminum and zinc.

The data for this visualization comes from Daily Metal Prices.

Precious Metals: Small in Size, Big in Value

Gold tops the chart in value, costing over $108 million per metric ton. That means $10,000 only gets you 92 grams, barely more than a chocolate bar.

Platinum and palladium are slightly less expensive but still highly valuable, offering just a few hundred grams per $10,000. These metals are prized for their rarity, beauty, and industrial applications, especially in electronics and catalytic converters.

Industrial Metals: Value in Volume

On the opposite end are base metals like aluminum, zinc, and copper. These materials are far more abundant and are critical to infrastructure and manufacturing. For example, with $10,000, you could buy 3,815 kilograms of aluminum, enough to construct dozens of bicycles. Even copper, a more valuable industrial metal, yields over a metric ton for the same amount of money.

Strategic and Emerging Materials

In between are metals like lithium and nickel, which are crucial to green technologies, batteries, and energy systems. Lithium, priced at nearly $12,000 per ton, yields 838 kg for $10,000, while nickel provides 667 kg.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Charted: Where the U.S. Gets Its Rare Earths From on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 05:45

Risk In France Is Not Quite Gone Or Forgotten

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

Risk spreads in France have continued to ease back on a trend basis, even after Fitch’s downgrade on Friday.

However, some spreads remain elevated in absolute terms, indicating the market continues to price in structural problems.

As a reminder that agencies’ ratings changes are lagging, French bond spreads and asset swap spreads are slightly tighter today after Fitch’s downgrade of French government debt to A+ from AA- on Friday.

A holistic measure of market-based French risk spreads, in the chart below, shows it is back to its one-year average.

However, the measure is on a trend basis.

In absolute terms, some risk spreads, such as the French-German bond spread and the asset swap spread, remain wide.

What that tells us is that risk is no longer acute, but it remains chronic.

Spreads will not significantly decline until there is clear progress in reducing the deficit.

France may have got a pass from the bond market for now, but it’s still in a fix.

That clemency will be reassuring to other countries such as the UK, yet what happens in the EU’s second largest economy will still be consequential for developed bond markets around the world.

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 05:00

"I've Never Experienced Crime Of This Magnitude Before": 20-Year Veteran Austrian Police Spox

Via Remix News,

More than 30 victims of a Syrian youth gang, known as “505,” have been recorded n the cities of Graz and Vienna.

The suspects range in age from 17 to 20, with police reporting they dealt a “severe blow” to the group with mass arrests.

“I’ve never experienced a dimension (of crime) of this magnitude before, and I’ve been in this business for 20 years,” said police spokesman Fritz Grundnig.

The organized gang is accused of a long series of extremely violent assaults between November 2024 and June 2025, mostly in Graz. Styrian police have released details to the national media about the group, including their involvement in the narcotics trade.

“A total of over 20 crimes have been reported, with over 30 victims injured and assaulted by this gang,” said Grundnig.

“The men are suspected of having intentionally committed grievous bodily harm, aggravated assault, robberies, dangerous threats, and coercion in Graz since the end of 2024, with varying degrees of involvement, and of having joined forces in a criminal organization,” an additional press release reads. The investigation revealed that the “505” group used blunt and stabbing weapons. Among the victims were minors, according to media outlet Die Presse.

Despite the gang being focused in Graz, a number of arrests were made in Vienna as well.

Many victims faced extreme violence.

“For example, in June, the group stabbed another man at Griesplatz. He suffered a stab wound in the thigh,” Grundnig reported.

The police spokesperson also said that the gang is involved in the narcotics trade.

“During the house searches, which were of course carried out as part of this operation, a considerable quantity of drugs was found,” he stated.

The gang apparently named itself after another Arab clan gang, which participated in brutal clashes between Chechens, Turks, and Syrians, who gathered under the name 505 or 505/515, in Vienna in 2024.

Those clashes saw gun battles, multiple stabbings, and routine violence.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 02:00

Number Of Fume Poison Events On Airplanes Is Soaring, What You Should Know

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Airbus is much worse than Boeing on toxic fumes sucked into planes.

Toxic Fumes Are Leaking Into Airplanes

The number of airplane fume incidents is soaring. People and pilots are getting sick. In some cases, people have been crippled for life. Smaller airlines are worse, and Airbus is much worse than Boeing.

The FAA knows the exact cause and refuses to take action. Primarily it’s design flaws and maintenance.

On most planes, about half the air in the aircraft is recirculated. Fume events occur when engine oils and hydraulic fluids leak into the section of the engine that recirculates air.

The Wall Street Journal has an excellent trio of links regarding toxic fumes leaking into airccraft. With thanks to the Journal, here are free links to a set of articles on the problem.

FAA Has Been Ignoring the Problem for Years

Please consider Toxic Fumes Are Leaking Into Airplanes, Sickening Crews and Passengers

“Do you smell that?” Florence Chesson was asked by a fellow Jet Blue flight attendant as they prepared for landing in Puerto Rico.

Chesson, as trained, inhaled a lungful of air through her nostrils in a single deep breath. “It smells like dirty feet,” she told her colleague.

Instantly, she started to feel like she had been drugged, Chesson said in an interview.

When the flight landed, the two cabin crew were taken to a hospital in an ambulance, one on a stretcher.

Chesson, her uniform and hair soaked in sweat and with an overpowering metallic taste in her mouth, went to meet her supervisors. “I felt like I was talking gibberish,” she recalled. “I remember being very repetitive, saying ‘What just happened to me? What just happened to me?’”

After months of worsening symptoms, Chesson was diagnosed with a traumatic brain injury and permanent damage to her peripheral nervous system caused by the fumes she inhaled. Her doctor, Robert Kaniecki, a neurologist and consultant to the Pittsburgh Steelers, said in an interview that the effects on her brain were akin to a chemical concussion and “extraordinarily similar” to those of a National Football League linebacker after a brutal hit. “It’s impossible not to draw that conclusion,” he said.

Kaniecki said he has treated about a dozen pilots and over 100 flight attendants for brain injuries after exposure to fumes on aircraft over the last 20 years. Another was a passenger, a frequent flier with Delta’s top-tier rewards status who was injured in 2023.

The Journal’s reporting—based on a review of more than one million FAA and National Aeronautics and Space Administration reports, thousands of pages of documents and research papers and more than 100 interviews—shows that aircraft manufacturers and their airline customers have played down health risks, successfully lobbied against safety measures, and made cost-saving changes that increased the risks to crew and passengers.

In a February incident captured on video by several passengers, enough oil entered the bleed air supply of a Boeing 717 that thick plumes of smoke started piling through the vents midflight. “Ladies and gentlemen, please breathe through your clothing, stay low,” the Delta Air Lines flight attendant told passengers, some of whom had noticed a strange smell during takeoff.

In a 2017 internal email, excerpts of which were produced in a lawsuit, Boeing quality inspector Steven Reiman wrote:

Just think what would happen if people realized they are being poisoned by coming to work on our airplanes or as passengers.

The FAA on its website says the incidents are “rare” and cites a 2015 review that estimated a rate of “less than 33 events per million aircraft departures.” That rate would suggest a total of about 330 fume events on U.S. airlines last year.

In reality, the FAA received more than double that number of reports of fume events in 2024 from the 15 biggest U.S. airlines alone, according to the Journal’s analysis of service difficulty reports for flights between 2010 and early 2025. The rate has soared in recent years. In 2014, the Journal found about 12 fume events per million departures. By 2024, the rate had jumped to nearly 108.

The Journal’s analysis suggests that the growth is driven by the world’s bestselling aircraft: the Airbus A320. In 2024, among the three largest U.S. airlines with mixed fleets, the rate of reports on A320s had increased to more than seven times the rate on their Boeing 737 aircraft.

At JetBlue and Spirit—both majority-Airbus operators—the increase is stark. Together, the airlines saw a 660% surge in the frequency of incidents on their A320s between 2016 and 2024.

The Journal’s analysis shows incidents began climbing in 2016, the year Airbus started delivering its new A320neo, what would become the world’s fastest-selling model. It boasted a new generation of fuel-efficient engines, including one that was plagued by rapidly degrading seals meant to keep oil from leaking into the air supply.

Under pressure from airlines who complained that fume events were keeping aircraft out of service for up to days at a time, Airbus loosened maintenance rules, according to a review of internal documents and people familiar with the changes.

The FAA inspector wrote:

These toxic chemicals are present in today’s modern synthetic jet engine oils and are passing into the aircraft cabin/cockpit unfiltered, affecting the air that crew and passengers breathe in.

‘Passed out pilots’

The United Nations has formally recognized fume events as a risk to flight safety since 2015. In addition, more than a dozen accident investigation teams in countries across the world have asked Boeing, Airbus and their regulators to implement measures to mitigate the risk, according to a review of official accident investigation reports. No major changes have been made.

One exception is the 787, Boeing’s first all-new design since smoking on commercial planes was fully banned in the U.S.

An email chain from Boeing’s early marketing meetings for the plane showed managers were grappling with how and whether to promote the new design. In one marketing brief it was referred to as “removing gaseous contaminants” from the air supply.

One executive was concerned that “if we elaborate on the 787 air purification and say how great and important it is,” he’d be asked why the system wasn’t available on Boeing’s other models, according to a deposition citing internal Boeing documents.

Congress is trying again. A bipartisan bill reintroduced last month would phase out the use of bleed air and require specialized filters on aircraft within seven years.

What You Need to Know About Fume Events on Airplanes

Next, please consider What You Need to Know About Fume Events on Airplanes

Due to a design element that has been a feature of almost every commercial jetliner since the 1950s, toxic fumes can leak from jet engines into the cabin or cockpit. The fumes have led to emergency landings, sickened passengers and crew members, and affected pilots’ vision and reaction times midflight, according to official reports.

The health effects are often mild but can also be severe, including brain injuries. Here’s what to know:

Where does the air on a flight come from?

On most planes, about half the air in the aircraft is recirculated. That refers to air that’s already on the plane that’s breathed in and exhaled by passengers with the remaining oxygen filtered and then pumped back inside the cabin. The other half is pulled from outside via the aircraft’s engines using a system known as “bleed air.” Engines are used for air supply on every modern aircraft, with the exception of Boeing’s 787.

Sorry, but why is my air pulled through an engine?

Good question! Because air at altitude is very thin and very cold, it has to be compressed and heated before it can be sent to us to breathe. Aircraft manufacturers realized in the 1950s that jet engines were already doing that work, and they decided to “bleed” the air from the engines’ compression chambers and then run it through air conditioners to get it back down to breathable temperatures. Fume events occur when engine oils and hydraulic fluids leak into that section of the engine.

How worried should I be?

It doesn’t happen often. The rates we identified in 2024 showed an incident rate on top U.S. airlines of 108 per one million departures, or roughly twice a day. But we also know that fume events are massively underreported. Internal industry data reviewed by the Journal estimated a rate of 800 incidents per million flights in the U.S., or just about 22 a day. Still, as one researcher put it, it’s highly unlikely you’ll be exposed, but almost guaranteed it’ll happen on an aircraft somewhere in the U.S. today.

What about dropdown oxygen masks and existing air filters? Should I bring my own mask?

Because dropdown passenger oxygen masks aren’t sealed, they don’t provide proper protection. In one extreme fume event investigated by the FAA, passengers stood on their seats to break into the overhead compartments to access the masks—that’s a safety hazard that can cause other problems on a flight.

Cloth and even N95 masks also aren’t designed to filter vapors and gases. Until fume events have been addressed, often the best bet is to flag it to your cabin crew.

Why do cabin crew appear to be the most at risk?

There’s some evidence indicating that repeat exposures coalesce to cause more-severe damage. Cabin crew aren’t just flying more, but are also more active when they do. That means their breathing rates are typically higher than a seated and docile passenger.

While pilots have longer-lasting emergency oxygen supplies, cabin crew only have access to 15-minute oxygen tanks, which is often shorter than it takes for a pilot to divert and land the aircraft. Prolonged use of that oxygen supply is also dangerous.

Also, it’s possible we’re only more aware of affected crew because of the lack of awareness among passengers. Whereas crews have avenues to report their exposure, passengers don’t. Because symptoms can take time to fully manifest, the connection between exposure and symptoms becomes harder to make.

How the Journal Analyzed More Than One Million FAA Reports

Finally, please consider How the Journal Analyzed More Than One Million FAA Reports

The Federal Aviation Administration, airplane manufacturers and airlines don’t release a public accounting of how often engine fumes leak into airplane cabins. So The Wall Street Journal conducted its own.

Airlines are required to submit “service difficulty reports” to the FAA detailing many kinds of operational issues they encounter during a flight. The Journal built a database of more than one million of them—every accessible filing from 2010 through mid-2025. SDRs contain identifying information about the aircraft as well as narrative text describing the issue.

“These reports are an important part of the FAA’s safety surveillance system,” an FAA spokeswoman said in a statement. “By collecting this information across thousands of aircraft and operators, the FAA can identify trends, detect patterns, and spot potential risks.”

To ensure a clean comparison, the Journal limited its analysis to the aircraft built by the three largest planemakers and flown by the top fifteen U.S. carriers by number of departures with one point in the U.S. between 2010 and the first quarter of 2025—the last date for which there were reliable departure statistics.

Journal reporters used machine learning algorithms, large-language models and manual review to find reports describing so-called fume events. In these, oil or hydraulic fluid contaminates the air supply and causes fumes to enter the cabin or flight deck. To validate the methodology, reporters spoke with experts and reviewed multiple studies, including one with funding from the FAA, as well as internal documents from aircraft manufacturers and airlines.

The Journal’s analysis was a two-step process. First, reporters trained a statistical model using a list of classified SDRs compiled by Judith Anderson, a researcher and occupational health specialist at the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA union who advocates on this issue and whose work the FAA cites for its 33 fume events per million departures figure. Testing against 25% of Anderson’s data not used in the training, the model correctly identified fume events 94% of the time.

To minimize false positives, reporters then created a prompt for a large language model based on academic literature and aviation industry documents. Only reports classified as fume events by both methods were counted.

Airbus Statement

“Airbus aircraft are designed and manufactured according to all relevant and applicable airworthiness requirements,” a spokesman said in a statement.

Yeah, right.

Criminal Behavior

It’s criminal behavior by the airlines and the FAA to not immediately address these issues.

The Journal reported “Airbus loosened maintenance rules, according to a review of internal documents.”

Airbus and the airlines lobbied for this to prevent planes from being grounded.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/15/2025 - 22:10

Number Of Fume Poison Events On Airplanes Is Soaring, What You Should Know

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

Airbus is much worse than Boeing on toxic fumes sucked into planes.

Toxic Fumes Are Leaking Into Airplanes

The number of airplane fume incidents is soaring. People and pilots are getting sick. In some cases, people have been crippled for life. Smaller airlines are worse, and Airbus is much worse than Boeing.

The FAA knows the exact cause and refuses to take action. Primarily it’s design flaws and maintenance.

On most planes, about half the air in the aircraft is recirculated. Fume events occur when engine oils and hydraulic fluids leak into the section of the engine that recirculates air.

The Wall Street Journal has an excellent trio of links regarding toxic fumes leaking into airccraft. With thanks to the Journal, here are free links to a set of articles on the problem.

FAA Has Been Ignoring the Problem for Years

Please consider Toxic Fumes Are Leaking Into Airplanes, Sickening Crews and Passengers

“Do you smell that?” Florence Chesson was asked by a fellow Jet Blue flight attendant as they prepared for landing in Puerto Rico.

Chesson, as trained, inhaled a lungful of air through her nostrils in a single deep breath. “It smells like dirty feet,” she told her colleague.

Instantly, she started to feel like she had been drugged, Chesson said in an interview.

When the flight landed, the two cabin crew were taken to a hospital in an ambulance, one on a stretcher.

Chesson, her uniform and hair soaked in sweat and with an overpowering metallic taste in her mouth, went to meet her supervisors. “I felt like I was talking gibberish,” she recalled. “I remember being very repetitive, saying ‘What just happened to me? What just happened to me?’”

After months of worsening symptoms, Chesson was diagnosed with a traumatic brain injury and permanent damage to her peripheral nervous system caused by the fumes she inhaled. Her doctor, Robert Kaniecki, a neurologist and consultant to the Pittsburgh Steelers, said in an interview that the effects on her brain were akin to a chemical concussion and “extraordinarily similar” to those of a National Football League linebacker after a brutal hit. “It’s impossible not to draw that conclusion,” he said.

Kaniecki said he has treated about a dozen pilots and over 100 flight attendants for brain injuries after exposure to fumes on aircraft over the last 20 years. Another was a passenger, a frequent flier with Delta’s top-tier rewards status who was injured in 2023.

The Journal’s reporting—based on a review of more than one million FAA and National Aeronautics and Space Administration reports, thousands of pages of documents and research papers and more than 100 interviews—shows that aircraft manufacturers and their airline customers have played down health risks, successfully lobbied against safety measures, and made cost-saving changes that increased the risks to crew and passengers.

In a February incident captured on video by several passengers, enough oil entered the bleed air supply of a Boeing 717 that thick plumes of smoke started piling through the vents midflight. “Ladies and gentlemen, please breathe through your clothing, stay low,” the Delta Air Lines flight attendant told passengers, some of whom had noticed a strange smell during takeoff.

In a 2017 internal email, excerpts of which were produced in a lawsuit, Boeing quality inspector Steven Reiman wrote:

Just think what would happen if people realized they are being poisoned by coming to work on our airplanes or as passengers.

The FAA on its website says the incidents are “rare” and cites a 2015 review that estimated a rate of “less than 33 events per million aircraft departures.” That rate would suggest a total of about 330 fume events on U.S. airlines last year.

In reality, the FAA received more than double that number of reports of fume events in 2024 from the 15 biggest U.S. airlines alone, according to the Journal’s analysis of service difficulty reports for flights between 2010 and early 2025. The rate has soared in recent years. In 2014, the Journal found about 12 fume events per million departures. By 2024, the rate had jumped to nearly 108.

The Journal’s analysis suggests that the growth is driven by the world’s bestselling aircraft: the Airbus A320. In 2024, among the three largest U.S. airlines with mixed fleets, the rate of reports on A320s had increased to more than seven times the rate on their Boeing 737 aircraft.

At JetBlue and Spirit—both majority-Airbus operators—the increase is stark. Together, the airlines saw a 660% surge in the frequency of incidents on their A320s between 2016 and 2024.

The Journal’s analysis shows incidents began climbing in 2016, the year Airbus started delivering its new A320neo, what would become the world’s fastest-selling model. It boasted a new generation of fuel-efficient engines, including one that was plagued by rapidly degrading seals meant to keep oil from leaking into the air supply.

Under pressure from airlines who complained that fume events were keeping aircraft out of service for up to days at a time, Airbus loosened maintenance rules, according to a review of internal documents and people familiar with the changes.

The FAA inspector wrote:

These toxic chemicals are present in today’s modern synthetic jet engine oils and are passing into the aircraft cabin/cockpit unfiltered, affecting the air that crew and passengers breathe in.

‘Passed out pilots’

The United Nations has formally recognized fume events as a risk to flight safety since 2015. In addition, more than a dozen accident investigation teams in countries across the world have asked Boeing, Airbus and their regulators to implement measures to mitigate the risk, according to a review of official accident investigation reports. No major changes have been made.

One exception is the 787, Boeing’s first all-new design since smoking on commercial planes was fully banned in the U.S.

An email chain from Boeing’s early marketing meetings for the plane showed managers were grappling with how and whether to promote the new design. In one marketing brief it was referred to as “removing gaseous contaminants” from the air supply.

One executive was concerned that “if we elaborate on the 787 air purification and say how great and important it is,” he’d be asked why the system wasn’t available on Boeing’s other models, according to a deposition citing internal Boeing documents.

Congress is trying again. A bipartisan bill reintroduced last month would phase out the use of bleed air and require specialized filters on aircraft within seven years.

What You Need to Know About Fume Events on Airplanes

Next, please consider What You Need to Know About Fume Events on Airplanes

Due to a design element that has been a feature of almost every commercial jetliner since the 1950s, toxic fumes can leak from jet engines into the cabin or cockpit. The fumes have led to emergency landings, sickened passengers and crew members, and affected pilots’ vision and reaction times midflight, according to official reports.

The health effects are often mild but can also be severe, including brain injuries. Here’s what to know:

Where does the air on a flight come from?

On most planes, about half the air in the aircraft is recirculated. That refers to air that’s already on the plane that’s breathed in and exhaled by passengers with the remaining oxygen filtered and then pumped back inside the cabin. The other half is pulled from outside via the aircraft’s engines using a system known as “bleed air.” Engines are used for air supply on every modern aircraft, with the exception of Boeing’s 787.

Sorry, but why is my air pulled through an engine?

Good question! Because air at altitude is very thin and very cold, it has to be compressed and heated before it can be sent to us to breathe. Aircraft manufacturers realized in the 1950s that jet engines were already doing that work, and they decided to “bleed” the air from the engines’ compression chambers and then run it through air conditioners to get it back down to breathable temperatures. Fume events occur when engine oils and hydraulic fluids leak into that section of the engine.

How worried should I be?

It doesn’t happen often. The rates we identified in 2024 showed an incident rate on top U.S. airlines of 108 per one million departures, or roughly twice a day. But we also know that fume events are massively underreported. Internal industry data reviewed by the Journal estimated a rate of 800 incidents per million flights in the U.S., or just about 22 a day. Still, as one researcher put it, it’s highly unlikely you’ll be exposed, but almost guaranteed it’ll happen on an aircraft somewhere in the U.S. today.

What about dropdown oxygen masks and existing air filters? Should I bring my own mask?

Because dropdown passenger oxygen masks aren’t sealed, they don’t provide proper protection. In one extreme fume event investigated by the FAA, passengers stood on their seats to break into the overhead compartments to access the masks—that’s a safety hazard that can cause other problems on a flight.

Cloth and even N95 masks also aren’t designed to filter vapors and gases. Until fume events have been addressed, often the best bet is to flag it to your cabin crew.

Why do cabin crew appear to be the most at risk?

There’s some evidence indicating that repeat exposures coalesce to cause more-severe damage. Cabin crew aren’t just flying more, but are also more active when they do. That means their breathing rates are typically higher than a seated and docile passenger.

While pilots have longer-lasting emergency oxygen supplies, cabin crew only have access to 15-minute oxygen tanks, which is often shorter than it takes for a pilot to divert and land the aircraft. Prolonged use of that oxygen supply is also dangerous.

Also, it’s possible we’re only more aware of affected crew because of the lack of awareness among passengers. Whereas crews have avenues to report their exposure, passengers don’t. Because symptoms can take time to fully manifest, the connection between exposure and symptoms becomes harder to make.

How the Journal Analyzed More Than One Million FAA Reports

Finally, please consider How the Journal Analyzed More Than One Million FAA Reports

The Federal Aviation Administration, airplane manufacturers and airlines don’t release a public accounting of how often engine fumes leak into airplane cabins. So The Wall Street Journal conducted its own.

Airlines are required to submit “service difficulty reports” to the FAA detailing many kinds of operational issues they encounter during a flight. The Journal built a database of more than one million of them—every accessible filing from 2010 through mid-2025. SDRs contain identifying information about the aircraft as well as narrative text describing the issue.

“These reports are an important part of the FAA’s safety surveillance system,” an FAA spokeswoman said in a statement. “By collecting this information across thousands of aircraft and operators, the FAA can identify trends, detect patterns, and spot potential risks.”

To ensure a clean comparison, the Journal limited its analysis to the aircraft built by the three largest planemakers and flown by the top fifteen U.S. carriers by number of departures with one point in the U.S. between 2010 and the first quarter of 2025—the last date for which there were reliable departure statistics.

Journal reporters used machine learning algorithms, large-language models and manual review to find reports describing so-called fume events. In these, oil or hydraulic fluid contaminates the air supply and causes fumes to enter the cabin or flight deck. To validate the methodology, reporters spoke with experts and reviewed multiple studies, including one with funding from the FAA, as well as internal documents from aircraft manufacturers and airlines.

The Journal’s analysis was a two-step process. First, reporters trained a statistical model using a list of classified SDRs compiled by Judith Anderson, a researcher and occupational health specialist at the Association of Flight Attendants-CWA union who advocates on this issue and whose work the FAA cites for its 33 fume events per million departures figure. Testing against 25% of Anderson’s data not used in the training, the model correctly identified fume events 94% of the time.

To minimize false positives, reporters then created a prompt for a large language model based on academic literature and aviation industry documents. Only reports classified as fume events by both methods were counted.

Airbus Statement

“Airbus aircraft are designed and manufactured according to all relevant and applicable airworthiness requirements,” a spokesman said in a statement.

Yeah, right.

Criminal Behavior

It’s criminal behavior by the airlines and the FAA to not immediately address these issues.

The Journal reported “Airbus loosened maintenance rules, according to a review of internal documents.”

Airbus and the airlines lobbied for this to prevent planes from being grounded.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/15/2025 - 22:10

Why The Left Wants The Right To 'Lower The Temperature'

Authored by Roger Kimball via American Greatness,

In the aftermath of the brutal assassination of Charlie Kirk last week, does the Right need to “lower the temperature” of its rhetoric? That’s what the usual suspects on the Left are saying.

As it happens, “lowering the temperature” while simultaneously raising the intelligence of discussion was one of Charlie Kirk’s specialties. A theme of his campus “American Comeback” tour (which his widow Erika plans to continue) was dignified debate. “Prove Me Wrong” was Charlie’s mantra. He eagerly engaged with college students who disagreed—or, sometimes, merely thought they disagreed—with him about a wide range of political, social, moral, and religious issues.

If you have never seen him debate, I recommend you consult Mr. Google or one of his professional counterparts and watch Charlie in action. He was robust but also unfailingly kind, patient, and attentive to his interlocutors. The reason? He wished to persuade his audience about the rightness of his point of view, about the virtues of America, the wisdom of Christianity, and the leadership of Donald Trump. Charlie was fundamentally a teacher.

How about his opponents?

The internet is full of revelatory compilations of left-wingers denouncing their opponents as “fascists,” “Nazis,” and so on.

One series (and here is another) includes CNN’s Anderson Cooper asking Kamala Harris whether she thinks Donald Trump is “a fascist.” “Yes, I do” was her answer.

The word “fascist” had obviously been circulated by Democrat headquarters on the run-up to the 2024 election. Tim “Nimrod” Walz (remember him?) told a crowd that “No one has ever been more dangerous to this country than Donald Trump and he is a fascist to his core.”

“There needs to be blood,” we are told, which is only natural, since, as Senator Chris Murphy from Connecticut said, “We’re in a war right now, so you have to be willing to do whatever is necessary to save the country.” New York Governor Kathy Hochul agreed. “We are at war,” she said. In his infamous speech at Independence Hall in Philadelphia, Joe Biden said that “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.” “The very foundations of our republic,” forsooth! Nancy Pelosi, reflecting on Donald Trump’s border policy, said, “I don’t know why there aren’t uprisings all over the country and maybe there will be.”

Uprisings are something that House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries can get behind. “We are going to fight this in the streets,” a sentiment echoed by Illinois Governor JB Pritzker: “Time to step out into the streets,” he said.

It is all part of the ethic summarized by Eric “Wingman” Holder, Barack Obama’s loyal attorney general. “They go low,” he said, “we kick them.”

It has long been obvious that Left has a black belt in what psychologists call “projection.”

They are masters of the art of accusing their ideological opponents of vile things of which they themselves are guilty. Their demand that we all must work to “lower the temperature” and “come together” in unity after the murder of Charlie Kirk is a subset of projection. They call their opponents “fascists” and an “extreme threat to the very foundation of the republic,” but when someone from their flock responds with violence, they blame “intemperate,” “right-wing,” MAGA rhetoric.

The tactic is not working this time. That cosmic suspiration you heard on Thursday night was the sigh of relief issued by the left when it learned that Tyler Robinson, the 22-year-old man who killed Charlie Kirk, was white and that he came from a family of Republican Trump supporters. “You said he would be a black transsexual Trump hater, and here it turns out he is a cisgendered MAGA-supporting cracker.”

Nice try. Social media was full of that contention in the immediate aftermath of Robinson’s being identified as the shooter.

White Robinson certainly is. But he is also, as Utah Governor Spencer Cox put it, “deeply indoctrinated with leftist ideology.” A complete inventory of Robinson’s hatreds is still being compiled. As for the transgender motif, it turns out that his roommate (some outlets say his “partner”) is in the process of “transitioning.” Hmm. I suspect many people will, like me, agree with the commentator Scott Adams: “When the Charlie Kirk story first broke,” Adams wrote, “I unfairly leapt to the assumption the shooter was probably trans. Now, I feel terrible for making that assumption because the killer was only the boyfriend of a trans. I was way off.”

Adams added, “I am now unfairly leaping to the assumption the boyfriend is on antidepressants.”

It is curious that the last question Charlie Kirk was asked before being murdered bore on the question of transgenderism.

“Do you know how many transgender Americans have been mass shooters over the last 10 years?”

Charlie replied, “Too many.”

He was then asked, “Do you know how many mass shooters there have been in America over the last 10 years?”

Charlie replied, “Counting or not counting gang violence?”

Charlie was then assassinated.

The left is terrified by the response to the ideologically motivated murder of Charlie Kirk. They should be. In the couple of days since the shooting, his organization, Turning Point, has signed up 18,000 new chapters. There have been mass demonstrations across the country—indeed, across the world—expressing sorrow at Charlie’s death and solidarity with his humane and humanizing ideas. As has been often pointed out, unlike the destructive “demonstrations” (what the rest of us would rightly call riots) that followed the death of the career-criminal, drug-abusing, arrest-resisting George Floyd, the mass gatherings for Charlie have featured prayer, not arson.

One key lesson that emerged from the horror of Charlie Kirk’s assassination was summed up neatly by a post on X: “They don’t kill you because you’re a Nazi; they call you a Nazi so they can kill you.” More and more people are coming to understand this.

One bullet fired by a deranged leftist silenced Charlie Kirk forever. But it also awakened millions of embryonic followers. It is too soon to say for certain what the aftermath of his tragic death will be. I would not be surprised if the words “Turning Point” eventually come to be seen to name not only Charlie Kirk’s organization but also a mighty fulcrum created by his death.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Mon, 09/15/2025 - 21:20

Why The Left Wants The Right To 'Lower The Temperature'

Authored by Roger Kimball via American Greatness,

In the aftermath of the brutal assassination of Charlie Kirk last week, does the Right need to “lower the temperature” of its rhetoric? That’s what the usual suspects on the Left are saying.

As it happens, “lowering the temperature” while simultaneously raising the intelligence of discussion was one of Charlie Kirk’s specialties. A theme of his campus “American Comeback” tour (which his widow Erika plans to continue) was dignified debate. “Prove Me Wrong” was Charlie’s mantra. He eagerly engaged with college students who disagreed—or, sometimes, merely thought they disagreed—with him about a wide range of political, social, moral, and religious issues.

If you have never seen him debate, I recommend you consult Mr. Google or one of his professional counterparts and watch Charlie in action. He was robust but also unfailingly kind, patient, and attentive to his interlocutors. The reason? He wished to persuade his audience about the rightness of his point of view, about the virtues of America, the wisdom of Christianity, and the leadership of Donald Trump. Charlie was fundamentally a teacher.

How about his opponents?

The internet is full of revelatory compilations of left-wingers denouncing their opponents as “fascists,” “Nazis,” and so on.

One series (and here is another) includes CNN’s Anderson Cooper asking Kamala Harris whether she thinks Donald Trump is “a fascist.” “Yes, I do” was her answer.

The word “fascist” had obviously been circulated by Democrat headquarters on the run-up to the 2024 election. Tim “Nimrod” Walz (remember him?) told a crowd that “No one has ever been more dangerous to this country than Donald Trump and he is a fascist to his core.”

“There needs to be blood,” we are told, which is only natural, since, as Senator Chris Murphy from Connecticut said, “We’re in a war right now, so you have to be willing to do whatever is necessary to save the country.” New York Governor Kathy Hochul agreed. “We are at war,” she said. In his infamous speech at Independence Hall in Philadelphia, Joe Biden said that “Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our republic.” “The very foundations of our republic,” forsooth! Nancy Pelosi, reflecting on Donald Trump’s border policy, said, “I don’t know why there aren’t uprisings all over the country and maybe there will be.”

Uprisings are something that House minority leader Hakeem Jeffries can get behind. “We are going to fight this in the streets,” a sentiment echoed by Illinois Governor JB Pritzker: “Time to step out into the streets,” he said.

It is all part of the ethic summarized by Eric “Wingman” Holder, Barack Obama’s loyal attorney general. “They go low,” he said, “we kick them.”

It has long been obvious that Left has a black belt in what psychologists call “projection.”

They are masters of the art of accusing their ideological opponents of vile things of which they themselves are guilty. Their demand that we all must work to “lower the temperature” and “come together” in unity after the murder of Charlie Kirk is a subset of projection. They call their opponents “fascists” and an “extreme threat to the very foundation of the republic,” but when someone from their flock responds with violence, they blame “intemperate,” “right-wing,” MAGA rhetoric.

The tactic is not working this time. That cosmic suspiration you heard on Thursday night was the sigh of relief issued by the left when it learned that Tyler Robinson, the 22-year-old man who killed Charlie Kirk, was white and that he came from a family of Republican Trump supporters. “You said he would be a black transsexual Trump hater, and here it turns out he is a cisgendered MAGA-supporting cracker.”

Nice try. Social media was full of that contention in the immediate aftermath of Robinson’s being identified as the shooter.

White Robinson certainly is. But he is also, as Utah Governor Spencer Cox put it, “deeply indoctrinated with leftist ideology.” A complete inventory of Robinson’s hatreds is still being compiled. As for the transgender motif, it turns out that his roommate (some outlets say his “partner”) is in the process of “transitioning.” Hmm. I suspect many people will, like me, agree with the commentator Scott Adams: “When the Charlie Kirk story first broke,” Adams wrote, “I unfairly leapt to the assumption the shooter was probably trans. Now, I feel terrible for making that assumption because the killer was only the boyfriend of a trans. I was way off.”

Adams added, “I am now unfairly leaping to the assumption the boyfriend is on antidepressants.”

It is curious that the last question Charlie Kirk was asked before being murdered bore on the question of transgenderism.

“Do you know how many transgender Americans have been mass shooters over the last 10 years?”

Charlie replied, “Too many.”

He was then asked, “Do you know how many mass shooters there have been in America over the last 10 years?”

Charlie replied, “Counting or not counting gang violence?”

Charlie was then assassinated.

The left is terrified by the response to the ideologically motivated murder of Charlie Kirk. They should be. In the couple of days since the shooting, his organization, Turning Point, has signed up 18,000 new chapters. There have been mass demonstrations across the country—indeed, across the world—expressing sorrow at Charlie’s death and solidarity with his humane and humanizing ideas. As has been often pointed out, unlike the destructive “demonstrations” (what the rest of us would rightly call riots) that followed the death of the career-criminal, drug-abusing, arrest-resisting George Floyd, the mass gatherings for Charlie have featured prayer, not arson.

One key lesson that emerged from the horror of Charlie Kirk’s assassination was summed up neatly by a post on X: “They don’t kill you because you’re a Nazi; they call you a Nazi so they can kill you.” More and more people are coming to understand this.

One bullet fired by a deranged leftist silenced Charlie Kirk forever. But it also awakened millions of embryonic followers. It is too soon to say for certain what the aftermath of his tragic death will be. I would not be surprised if the words “Turning Point” eventually come to be seen to name not only Charlie Kirk’s organization but also a mighty fulcrum created by his death.

*  *  *

Do you know about 5-HTP?

Boosts serotonin levels - good for mood, anti-anxiety, sleep, depression, and appetite control.

Buy 5-HTP by itself

Also in:

Mood (plus Lithium! - serious calm)

Sleep Formula (with Tryptophan, GABA, Skullcap, L-Theanine, Ashwagandha, Inositol)

Night Time Fat Burner (with Magnesium, Ashwagandha, GABA, Melatonin and Magnesium)

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/15/2025 - 21:20

Appeals Court Rules Trump Can't Fire Cook, As Miran Wins Fed Confirmation By 1 Vote Margin

A US appeals court issued an 11th ruling, blocking President Trump from removing mortgage-challenged Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her post while her lawsuit challenging the dismissal proceeds. In a win for the embattled economist, an appeals court in Washington on Monday affirmed that Cook can continue working for now. The ruling means that she can attend the Fed’s highly anticipated Sept. 16-17 meeting to vote on whether to lower interest rates. Still, Trump will immediately ask the Supreme Court to step in, at which point all bets are off. 

On Sept 9, US District Judge Jia Cobb - and a sister of the same sorority in which Cook was formerly a member - ruled that Cook could remain on the job as her case proceeded, saying that Trump’s attempt to oust her likely violated the law. The appeals court decision allows that ruling to stand for now.

BREAKING: The DC Circuit has *rejected* Trump's bid to fire Lisa Cook from the Fed board, allowing her to participate in tomorrow's interest-rate setting meeting.

Trump's last hope is a quick stay from SCOTUS. https://t.co/wNtfx9GWW2 pic.twitter.com/1eZGAmLjhO

— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) September 16, 2025

Last month, Cook sued Trump after the president moved to oust her over allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denies even though she has yet to give a clear reason why she listed two primary residences. The lawsuit has emerged as a major flash-point in the growing clash between the White House and the Fed, which has resisted Trump’s demands to lower interest rates.

What is somewhat ironic in this whole situation, is that Trump is pursuing the person seen as one of the biggest doves on the FOMC during the Biden admin. As Rabobank's Benjamin Picton wrote this morning, "Bloomberg Economics lists Cook amongst the most dovish Fed Governors on its spectrometer, which seems to run counter to the idea that Trump wants to stack the FOMC with doves."

So what is really going on here? Could it be, Picton asks, that the President is convinced that Fed Governors’ determinations of the appropriateness of monetary policy are not a purely technocratic process and actually exhibit some malleability dependent on who happens to be occupying the White House?

If he is right, this former super dove may well vote for a rate hike on Wednesday (even as Bowman and Waller vote for a 50bps rate cut), in the process confirming what Trump may have set out to demonstrate all along: that the Fed is anything but independent, may very well be vindictive, and is certainly not impartial depending on who is in the White House. 

In somewhat offsetting news, and hitting at almost the same time as the Cook update, the Senate confirmed Trump’s economic adviser Stephen Miran, to a post on the Fed Board, clearing his presence at the Wednesday meeting. 

In a 48-47 vote along party lines, the Senate voted to approve Miran’s nomination, setting him up to walk into the Fed’s Washington offices Tuesday morning, just in time for a crucial FOMC meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Republicans had fast-tracked approval of Miran’s nomination with Trump pressuring the central bank to cut interest rates. 

Investors and economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect Fed officials to lower rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday, although there i a roughly 10% chance of  a 50bps rate cut, which by the way is what we got exactly a year ago, when inflation was far hotter, and when the economy was decidedly stronger, especially following last week's record negative jobs revision. 

“I think you have a big cut,” Trump told reporters on Sunday on his way back to Washington. “It’s perfect for cutting.”

Miran had to sit through his second grueling hearing this year, facing Democrats who ripped his temporary leave of absence from the White House as ridiculous and a threat to the independence of the central bank, especially after Trump moved to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook and bragged to reporters he would soon have “a majority” on the Fed board.

“Every claim he makes and every vote he takes will be tainted with the suspicion that he isn’t an honest broker, but instead is Donald Trump’s puppet,” Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts said at his hearing.

Ironically, it was the same Senator who exactly one year ago, said that the "Fed must cut by 75bps on Sept 18" and then Powell proceeded to cut by 50bps two days later, confirming he was Warren's - and Biden's - puppet.

Elizabeth Warren, Sept 16, 2024: "Fed must cut by 75bps on Sept 18" (Fed cut 50bps two days later)

Elizabeth Warren, Sept 15, 2025: "Every claim [Stephen Miran] makes and every vote he takes will be tainted with the suspicion that he is Donald Trump’s puppet" pic.twitter.com/dXFgTC9wu1

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 16, 2025

Miran, who has chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told senators he would take an unpaid leave of absence to join the Fed, with no clarity yet on how long he might remain. Trump could nominate him for a full 14-year term to begin in February, or he could choose someone else. Miran could also stay on indefinitely if Trump chooses no one to fill the new term.

One thing is certain: Miran will vote for a 25bps rate cut, and may even vote 50, and he won't be alone since both Waller and Bowman may do the same. Which means that on Wednesday history may be made when we get a four-way vote split: uber doves voting for a 50bps rate cut, Powell and the "moderates" voting for 25bps. Then you have the hard-line pro-Biden supporters (sorry guys, hate to break it to you, but the Fed - which until recently was tasked with enabling a green agenda and social "equity" - has never been and never will be independent) like Goolsbee and Hammack, who may vote to keep rates unchanged, and there is the Lisa Cook wildcard, who may decided to go scorched earth and to vote for a 25bps rate hike. 

In such a circus outcome, all bets will truly be off. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/15/2025 - 20:55

Appeals Court Rules Trump Can't Fire Cook, As Miran Wins Fed Confirmation By 1 Vote Margin

A US appeals court issued an 11th ruling, blocking President Trump from removing mortgage-challenged Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her post while her lawsuit challenging the dismissal proceeds. In a win for the embattled economist, an appeals court in Washington on Monday affirmed that Cook can continue working for now. The ruling means that she can attend the Fed’s highly anticipated Sept. 16-17 meeting to vote on whether to lower interest rates. Still, Trump will immediately ask the Supreme Court to step in, at which point all bets are off. 

On Sept 9, US District Judge Jia Cobb - and a sister of the same sorority in which Cook was formerly a member - ruled that Cook could remain on the job as her case proceeded, saying that Trump’s attempt to oust her likely violated the law. The appeals court decision allows that ruling to stand for now.

BREAKING: The DC Circuit has *rejected* Trump's bid to fire Lisa Cook from the Fed board, allowing her to participate in tomorrow's interest-rate setting meeting.

Trump's last hope is a quick stay from SCOTUS. https://t.co/wNtfx9GWW2 pic.twitter.com/1eZGAmLjhO

— Kyle Cheney (@kyledcheney) September 16, 2025

Last month, Cook sued Trump after the president moved to oust her over allegations of mortgage fraud, which she denies even though she has yet to give a clear reason why she listed two primary residences. The lawsuit has emerged as a major flash-point in the growing clash between the White House and the Fed, which has resisted Trump’s demands to lower interest rates.

What is somewhat ironic in this whole situation, is that Trump is pursuing the person seen as one of the biggest doves on the FOMC during the Biden admin. As Rabobank's Benjamin Picton wrote this morning, "Bloomberg Economics lists Cook amongst the most dovish Fed Governors on its spectrometer, which seems to run counter to the idea that Trump wants to stack the FOMC with doves."

So what is really going on here? Could it be, Picton asks, that the President is convinced that Fed Governors’ determinations of the appropriateness of monetary policy are not a purely technocratic process and actually exhibit some malleability dependent on who happens to be occupying the White House?

If he is right, this former super dove may well vote for a rate hike on Wednesday (even as Bowman and Waller vote for a 50bps rate cut), in the process confirming what Trump may have set out to demonstrate all along: that the Fed is anything but independent, may very well be vindictive, and is certainly not impartial depending on who is in the White House. 

In somewhat offsetting news, and hitting at almost the same time as the Cook update, the Senate confirmed Trump’s economic adviser Stephen Miran, to a post on the Fed Board, clearing his presence at the Wednesday meeting. 

In a 48-47 vote along party lines, the Senate voted to approve Miran’s nomination, setting him up to walk into the Fed’s Washington offices Tuesday morning, just in time for a crucial FOMC meeting scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday. Republicans had fast-tracked approval of Miran’s nomination with Trump pressuring the central bank to cut interest rates. 

Investors and economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect Fed officials to lower rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday, although there i a roughly 10% chance of  a 50bps rate cut, which by the way is what we got exactly a year ago, when inflation was far hotter, and when the economy was decidedly stronger, especially following last week's record negative jobs revision. 

“I think you have a big cut,” Trump told reporters on Sunday on his way back to Washington. “It’s perfect for cutting.”

Miran had to sit through his second grueling hearing this year, facing Democrats who ripped his temporary leave of absence from the White House as ridiculous and a threat to the independence of the central bank, especially after Trump moved to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook and bragged to reporters he would soon have “a majority” on the Fed board.

“Every claim he makes and every vote he takes will be tainted with the suspicion that he isn’t an honest broker, but instead is Donald Trump’s puppet,” Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts said at his hearing.

Ironically, it was the same Senator who exactly one year ago, said that the "Fed must cut by 75bps on Sept 18" and then Powell proceeded to cut by 50bps two days later, confirming he was Warren's - and Biden's - puppet.

Elizabeth Warren, Sept 16, 2024: "Fed must cut by 75bps on Sept 18" (Fed cut 50bps two days later)

Elizabeth Warren, Sept 15, 2025: "Every claim [Stephen Miran] makes and every vote he takes will be tainted with the suspicion that he is Donald Trump’s puppet" pic.twitter.com/dXFgTC9wu1

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 16, 2025

Miran, who has chaired the White House Council of Economic Advisers, told senators he would take an unpaid leave of absence to join the Fed, with no clarity yet on how long he might remain. Trump could nominate him for a full 14-year term to begin in February, or he could choose someone else. Miran could also stay on indefinitely if Trump chooses no one to fill the new term.

One thing is certain: Miran will vote for a 25bps rate cut, and may even vote 50, and he won't be alone since both Waller and Bowman may do the same. Which means that on Wednesday history may be made when we get a four-way vote split: uber doves voting for a 50bps rate cut, Powell and the "moderates" voting for 25bps. Then you have the hard-line pro-Biden supporters (sorry guys, hate to break it to you, but the Fed - which until recently was tasked with enabling a green agenda and social "equity" - has never been and never will be independent) like Goolsbee and Hammack, who may vote to keep rates unchanged, and there is the Lisa Cook wildcard, who may decided to go scorched earth and to vote for a 25bps rate hike. 

In such a circus outcome, all bets will truly be off. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/15/2025 - 20:55

Another Shutdown 'Looming' As GOP, Democrats Clash Over Stopgap Funding Bill

With just over two weeks until yet another episode of government funding distraction theatre, Congress is bracing for a high-stakes showdown that could once again bring the federal government to the brink of a shutdown.

House Republicans this week plan to introduce a short-term measure, known as a continuing resolution, that would keep the government open until Nov. 20 while appropriators attempt to negotiate a broader deal on fiscal year 2026 spending. GOP leaders are framing the bill as a “clean” extension, free of partisan add-ons.

But the proposal pointedly excludes provisions Democrats are demanding, particularly on health care. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) have said they will not support a stopgap that fails to address issues such as Medicaid cuts or Affordable Care Act premium subsidies.

“If Republicans follow Donald Trump’s orders to not even bother dealing with Democrats, they will be single handedly putting our country on the path towards a shutdown,” a Schumer spokesperson told Punchbowl News.

Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader John Thune (R-SD), say they have no intention of adding health-care policy to a seven-week extension. “This is about buying time, not rewriting law,” Thune said last week.

House Dynamics

The first hurdle lies in the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is under pressure to release the bill text soon, with Republicans traditionally granting 72 hours for review. With Democrats unlikely to support the measure, Johnson can afford to lose no more than two GOP votes. And since Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie is expected to oppose the measure, Johnson is left with almost no margin for error.

Johnson is expected to argue that failing to pass a GOP-only bill would weaken Republicans’ leverage in the negotiations. But conservatives remain wary, fearing the Senate could eventually force through a bipartisan long-term deal more favorable to Democrats.

Senate Timetable

Should the House pass the bill, the Senate could begin work later in the week. Without unanimous consent, processing the measure could consume several days, potentially cutting into the chamber’s planned recess for Rosh Hashanah. Schumer and Jeffries are preparing to filibuster the GOP bill, raising the risk of a shutdown if neither side budges.

Both parties appear confident in their positions. Republicans argue Democrats are overreaching; Democrats counter that Republicans are refusing to negotiate. Historically, Republicans have absorbed more political blame in shutdown fights.

Security Questions

Amid the funding standoff, security for lawmakers has emerged as another point of tension. The White House has requested $58 million for executive and judicial branch security, with the Trump administration indicating support for extending additional protection to lawmakers. Democrats, still unsettled by recent threats, held a call Sunday with U.S. Capitol Police Chief Michael Sullivan to discuss extending the $5,000-per-month member security allowance, set to expire at the end of September.

With only 15 days remaining before current funding lapses, the chances of a shutdown are rising. Democrats are signaling unity behind their leadership, while Republicans are struggling to maintain cohesion in the House. Unless one side concedes, the standoff

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/15/2025 - 20:30

Another Shutdown 'Looming' As GOP, Democrats Clash Over Stopgap Funding Bill

With just over two weeks until yet another episode of government funding distraction theatre, Congress is bracing for a high-stakes showdown that could once again bring the federal government to the brink of a shutdown.

House Republicans this week plan to introduce a short-term measure, known as a continuing resolution, that would keep the government open until Nov. 20 while appropriators attempt to negotiate a broader deal on fiscal year 2026 spending. GOP leaders are framing the bill as a “clean” extension, free of partisan add-ons.

But the proposal pointedly excludes provisions Democrats are demanding, particularly on health care. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) have said they will not support a stopgap that fails to address issues such as Medicaid cuts or Affordable Care Act premium subsidies.

“If Republicans follow Donald Trump’s orders to not even bother dealing with Democrats, they will be single handedly putting our country on the path towards a shutdown,” a Schumer spokesperson told Punchbowl News.

Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader John Thune (R-SD), say they have no intention of adding health-care policy to a seven-week extension. “This is about buying time, not rewriting law,” Thune said last week.

House Dynamics

The first hurdle lies in the House. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is under pressure to release the bill text soon, with Republicans traditionally granting 72 hours for review. With Democrats unlikely to support the measure, Johnson can afford to lose no more than two GOP votes. And since Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie is expected to oppose the measure, Johnson is left with almost no margin for error.

Johnson is expected to argue that failing to pass a GOP-only bill would weaken Republicans’ leverage in the negotiations. But conservatives remain wary, fearing the Senate could eventually force through a bipartisan long-term deal more favorable to Democrats.

Senate Timetable

Should the House pass the bill, the Senate could begin work later in the week. Without unanimous consent, processing the measure could consume several days, potentially cutting into the chamber’s planned recess for Rosh Hashanah. Schumer and Jeffries are preparing to filibuster the GOP bill, raising the risk of a shutdown if neither side budges.

Both parties appear confident in their positions. Republicans argue Democrats are overreaching; Democrats counter that Republicans are refusing to negotiate. Historically, Republicans have absorbed more political blame in shutdown fights.

Security Questions

Amid the funding standoff, security for lawmakers has emerged as another point of tension. The White House has requested $58 million for executive and judicial branch security, with the Trump administration indicating support for extending additional protection to lawmakers. Democrats, still unsettled by recent threats, held a call Sunday with U.S. Capitol Police Chief Michael Sullivan to discuss extending the $5,000-per-month member security allowance, set to expire at the end of September.

With only 15 days remaining before current funding lapses, the chances of a shutdown are rising. Democrats are signaling unity behind their leadership, while Republicans are struggling to maintain cohesion in the House. Unless one side concedes, the standoff

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/15/2025 - 20:30

Which Fields Of Study Are (Not) Leading To Jobs?

Even highly educated graduates are finding it difficult to secure work in today's challenging economic climate. This means that it is increasingly important that young people acquire skills through education that align with labor market demands.

A new OECD report, Education at a Glance, explores this issue in depth.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the infographic below, the report finds that while tertiary education generally leads to higher employment rates, outcomes tend to vary by field of study. In 2024, IT graduates had the highest average employment rate across OECD countries at 90 percent, followed by those in engineering, manufacturing and construction at 89 percent. Meanwhile, graduates in arts and humanities, social sciences and journalism had the lowest rates at 84 percent. The data covers employment among adults aged 25 to 64.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Although the differences may seem small, analysts note the pattern is consistent across countries.

For instance, in the United Kingdom, Mexico, Germany and Australia, unemployment rates for graduates in health and welfare hovered around just one-two percent, indicating that there is currently a strong demand. STEM graduates also had similarly low unemployment.

In contrast, in Greece, business, administration and law graduates saw slightly better employment outcomes than those in arts or STEM fields, reflecting local market conditions.

The report underscores that having any sort of tertiary education tends to improve job prospects. But it also highlights a persistent opportunity gap, as in all countries studied, students from disadvantaged backgrounds were far less likely to reach higher levels of education than those from more advantaged backgrounds. Analysts argue that improving access to education across different socio-economic backgrounds is critical, not only to strengthen social mobility and reduce inequality but also to increase the pool of skilled workers at a time of skills shortage across multiple sectors.

Still, the data shown in the infographic above comes with a caveat.

Although the research was conducted as recently as last year, the employment landscape, particularly in the tech industry, is evolving rapidly due to the widespread adoption of AI. This shift is especially affecting those just entering the workforce. For example, as companies increasingly rely on AI coding assistants, the demand for roles such as junior software engineers is decreasing. And although new technologies have historically eventually created new types of jobs, today’s graduates are being caught in a transitional period, facing fewer immediate openings as the market adapts.

Tyler Durden Mon, 09/15/2025 - 20:05