Supreme Court Rules 9–0 Wisconsin Violated First Amendment By Denying Tax Exemption To Catholic Charity

Authored by Matthew Vadum via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Supreme Court on June 5 ruled unanimously that Wisconsin violated the First Amendment by not granting a Catholic charity an exemption from paying unemployment tax.

The Contemplation of Justice statue at the U.S. Supreme Court building in Washington on May 19, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Justice Sonia Sotomayor wrote the 9–0 opinion in Catholic Charities Bureau v. Wisconsin Labor and Industry Review Commission.

Catholic Charities Bureau is a nonprofit organization that functions as an arm of the Roman Catholic Diocese of Superior, Wisconsin. The bureau oversees several other entities that render charitable services to communities across the state.

Wisconsin law excuses religious organizations that are “operated, supervised, controlled, or principally supported by a church or convention or association of churches” from paying state unemployment tax.

The petitioner, Catholic Charities, argued that it is unconstitutional to allow the state to decide what work is religious in nature.

“The First Amendment mandates government neutrality between religions and subjects any state-sponsored denominational preference to strict scrutiny. The Wisconsin Supreme Court’s application of [the state statute] imposed a denominational preference by differentiating between religions based on theological lines. Because the law’s application does not survive strict scrutiny, it cannot stand,” the justice wrote.

Strict scrutiny is the highest level of review used by the courts. Under it, the government has to show that a law is narrowly tailored to advance a compelling governmental interest and that the law is the least restrictive way to serve that interest.

Sotomayor wrote that Wisconsin is not the only jurisdiction that exempts religious organizations from paying taxes to cover unemployment compensation programs. Since Congress in 1970 approved the Federal Unemployment Tax Act, which contains language similar to that found in the Wisconsin law, more than 40 states have adopted similarly worded tax exemptions.

The Supreme Court of Wisconsin held 4–3 in March 2024 that Catholic Charities and its four related organizations that serve the developmentally disabled are not “operated primarily for religious purposes,” so they fail to meet the requirements for a tax exemption.

That court held that the activities of Catholic Charities do not qualify as “typical” religious activities because the organization does not “attempt to imbue program participants with the Catholic faith” and because the help it provides to those with mental and developmental disabilities could be carried out by secular organizations.

Sotomayor wrote that this means that the state court held that the organization could only qualify for the tax exemption if, when providing charitable services, it “engaged in proselytization or limited their ... services to fellow Catholics.”

The organization’s Catholic faith prevents it from using charity to proselytize, while many other religious organizations take a different approach, she wrote. This means that Wisconsin’s law on tax exemptions expresses a preference for some religious denominations over others “based on theological choices.”

Because the Wisconsin law distinguishes among religions on the basis of theological distinctions, it imposed “a denominational preference that must satisfy the highest level of judicial scrutiny.”

“Because Wisconsin has transgressed that principle without the tailoring necessary to survive such scrutiny,” the lower court’s decision must be overturned, she wrote.

The U.S. Supreme Court reversed the ruling of the Supreme Court of Wisconsin and sent the case back to that court “for further proceedings not inconsistent with this opinion.”

The attorney for Catholic Charities, Eric Rassbach, hailed the new ruling.

“It was always absurd to claim that Catholic Charities wasn’t religious because it helps everyone, no matter their religion,” Rassbach, vice president and senior counsel at the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty, told The Epoch Times.

“Today, the Court resoundingly reaffirmed a fundamental truth of our constitutional order: The First Amendment protects all religious beliefs, not just those the government favors.”

The Epoch Times reached out for comment to the Wisconsin Department of Justice, which represents the Wisconsin Labor and Industry Review Commission. No reply was received by publication time.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 14:05

China FX Diversification And The Dollar

By Martin Lynge Rasmussen of Money: Inside and Out

China has been preparing for further tension in the US-China relationship since Trump's first term, including by increasing the resilience of the Chinese financial system to external shocks. One key part of such plans is likely to reduce the importance of the US dollar for Chinese economic activity and increase the international usage of the RMB. We consider here (some) data relevant to tracking China’s FX diversification. Two trends emerge.

• Firstly, China has managed to reduce its reliance on the dollar by increasing the role of the renminbi. The dollar’s share of Chinese cross-border transfers has declined structurally in the last 15 years, from 80-85% in 2010 to 40-45% now, and the vast majority of the decline has been driven by higher renminbi flows. Relatedly, the CNH's share of global trade financing has increased from around 2% in 2021 to over 7% now (and picked up further since November), and has come at the expense of the dollar's market share. One explanation for the increasing linkage between renminbi cross-border transfers and its global market share is that the RMB is increasingly being used for 'real' economic transactions with foreigners rather than simply for cross-border transfers between Chinese entities.

• Secondly, against this, FX diversification has not made much progress. The dollar share of China's FX reserves, for example, seems to have remained constant in recent years. Relatedly, banks' external dollar net assets have been broadly stable in recent years and stood at $476bn in Q4-2024 (though gross assets and gross liabilities have fallen). But as China’s GDP has increased, dollar exposure-to-GDP ratios have declined. Non-USD FX net assets (e.g. those denominated in EUR) have remained minor and haven't increased meaningfully. And onshore FX trading remains extremely dominated by USDCNY, with very little trading in other pairs.

FX denomination of Chinese flows: structural decline but little sign of sharp drop recently (outside of trade finance)

The share of Chinese cross-border transfers that are denominated in dollars has declined from around 80-85% in the early 2010s to around 40-45% now. But the entirety of the decline in the dollar share is due to the rising role of cross-border renminbi flows. If we exclude CNY and only look at cross-border FX flows, the dollar's share of Chinese cross-border transfers has remained extremely high. As such, beyond the renminbi, other currencies have not become more dominant in Chinese cross-border flows.

This data is published by SAFE each month and measures cross-border bank transfers in both renminbi and FX.

From China's point of view, FX diversification matters as being cut off from the global dollar system, even if a tail risk, would reduce China's ability to carry out transactions related to international trade and investment. A question therefore is the extent to which the rise of renminbi in cross-border flows has led to an increase in China's ability to carry out trade with non-Chinese entities denominated in renminbi, or whether the flows simply reflect e.g. flows between mainland Chinese companies and their offshore subsidiaries (and other activities that wouldn't help China carry out international trade absent access to dollars).

Data from SWIFT suggests that usage of the renminbi has surged in recent years, though it remains very low relative to dollar usage. The CNY's share of global trade finance transactions has increased from 1.9% during 2018-2021 to 6.4% in November last year and 7.4% in March. We would think the freezing of Russian reserves has led to a sharp increase in the usage of renminbi in Russia-China trade, though other EMs might also have begun to dip their toes in CNY-denominated trade, too. Renminbi usage in payments has also doubled since 2022. At the same time, the dollar's share in international trade financing has declined from around 86% during 2018-2021 to around 81% now, a decline similar to the increase seen by the renminbi.

Since 2020, the rising share of renminbi in global trade finance and payments has trended together with the share of renminbi in Chinese cross-border transfers. This could suggest that cross-border renminbi transfers were, to some extent, driven by cross-border transfers between Chinese entities rather than with non-Chinese entities before 2020. If true, this would mean that the rise in cross-border renminbi transfers since 2020 has been due to "real" activities rather than 'financial engineering'.

The share of global trade finance denominated in dollars vs. renminbi has been closely inversely related since at least 2022. This also supports the idea that the renminbi's global usage has risen, and that it has come at the cost of the dollar.

When it comes to onshore FX trading, the dollar is as dominant as ever across different FX instruments as well as on the whole. This mirrors the total ex-CNY cross-border transfers, where the dollar also remains dominant.

Hedging behavior: gradual increase in hedges continues

Another way FX exposure changes is through changes to FX hedging ratios, which measure the extent to which FX assets are protected against moves in foreign exchange rates.

SAFE defines Chinese corporate FX hedging in terms of FX transactions, rather than via the share of FX net assets that are hedged. This ratio has increased from a bottom of <10% in 2015 to nearly 30% in 2025.

Banks' net FX exposure (as a percent of net assets) has declined from a high of around 3.5% in 2015 to below 1.5% by Q4 last year.

The two series are different from regular "FX hedge ratios" yet might still tell us something about "true" hedge ratios, given how closely they correlate over time.

FX exposure of Chinese entities: stable net dollar assets amid a decline in both assets and liabilities

Most Chinese foreign assets (including non-dollar assets) are held by the PBOC, though holdings by other entities have increased in the past decade.

The share of Chinese FX assets that are held in dollars has not materially declined in recent years, however.

As we have little insight into the composition of official FX holdings, we dig into banks' external assets and liabilities, for which we have better data. This data is compiled by SAFE on a BoP basis, and therefore measures Chinese banks' assets and liabilities against non-residents across both CNY and FX. We can see that, like for flows related to trade, it is a question of dollars vs. renminbi and that holdings of non-USD FX remain small.

Chinese banks' net dollar assets now stand at $476bn according to the BoP-basis data published by SAFE. This is much below the $1,115bn implied by the PBOC's data on net foreign assets of "other depositary institutions" (i.e., banks). Though there are likely differences in the statistical caliber of this data, we are surprised that this divergence hasn't gotten attention; we are not sure what is behind the large difference and will investigate the topic further. One explanation could be that the $1,11bn includes net FX assets held onshore, whereas the $476bn only includes assets and liabilities vs. non-residents. While it is technically true that Chinese banks' external net dollar assets have been broadly stable, it has occurred amid a $200bn decline in banks' external dollar assets and $224bn decline in their external dollar liabilities since Q4-2021 (i.e. before Russia invaded Ukraine).

There are many actors beyond banks in China, of course. To get a better sense of dollar holdings beyond banks, we do a rough estimate of bank vs. non-bank holdings of dollar-denominated loans and deposits, as well as bonds. More specifically, we apply banks' dollar share of external assets and apply this to the given IIP category (and our estimate therefore assumes that banks and non-banks' dollar allocations are similar across loans, deposits, and bonds).

Loans and deposits: Chinese external dollar net loans and deposit assets stood at $356bn in Q4-2024, down from $478bn in Q1-2022. Our assumptions furthermore imply that banks' and non-banks' external USD loans and deposit assets are of rather similar size. One explanation for the large size of non-bank dollar net assets could be that they have a substantial amount of dollar deposits with banks outside of China.

Bonds: the vast majority of external dollar net assets are held by banks, however, and non-banks' net assets only turned positive during 2023.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 13:25

China FX Diversification And The Dollar

By Martin Lynge Rasmussen of Money: Inside and Out

China has been preparing for further tension in the US-China relationship since Trump's first term, including by increasing the resilience of the Chinese financial system to external shocks. One key part of such plans is likely to reduce the importance of the US dollar for Chinese economic activity and increase the international usage of the RMB. We consider here (some) data relevant to tracking China’s FX diversification. Two trends emerge.

• Firstly, China has managed to reduce its reliance on the dollar by increasing the role of the renminbi. The dollar’s share of Chinese cross-border transfers has declined structurally in the last 15 years, from 80-85% in 2010 to 40-45% now, and the vast majority of the decline has been driven by higher renminbi flows. Relatedly, the CNH's share of global trade financing has increased from around 2% in 2021 to over 7% now (and picked up further since November), and has come at the expense of the dollar's market share. One explanation for the increasing linkage between renminbi cross-border transfers and its global market share is that the RMB is increasingly being used for 'real' economic transactions with foreigners rather than simply for cross-border transfers between Chinese entities.

• Secondly, against this, FX diversification has not made much progress. The dollar share of China's FX reserves, for example, seems to have remained constant in recent years. Relatedly, banks' external dollar net assets have been broadly stable in recent years and stood at $476bn in Q4-2024 (though gross assets and gross liabilities have fallen). But as China’s GDP has increased, dollar exposure-to-GDP ratios have declined. Non-USD FX net assets (e.g. those denominated in EUR) have remained minor and haven't increased meaningfully. And onshore FX trading remains extremely dominated by USDCNY, with very little trading in other pairs.

FX denomination of Chinese flows: structural decline but little sign of sharp drop recently (outside of trade finance)

The share of Chinese cross-border transfers that are denominated in dollars has declined from around 80-85% in the early 2010s to around 40-45% now. But the entirety of the decline in the dollar share is due to the rising role of cross-border renminbi flows. If we exclude CNY and only look at cross-border FX flows, the dollar's share of Chinese cross-border transfers has remained extremely high. As such, beyond the renminbi, other currencies have not become more dominant in Chinese cross-border flows.

This data is published by SAFE each month and measures cross-border bank transfers in both renminbi and FX.

From China's point of view, FX diversification matters as being cut off from the global dollar system, even if a tail risk, would reduce China's ability to carry out transactions related to international trade and investment. A question therefore is the extent to which the rise of renminbi in cross-border flows has led to an increase in China's ability to carry out trade with non-Chinese entities denominated in renminbi, or whether the flows simply reflect e.g. flows between mainland Chinese companies and their offshore subsidiaries (and other activities that wouldn't help China carry out international trade absent access to dollars).

Data from SWIFT suggests that usage of the renminbi has surged in recent years, though it remains very low relative to dollar usage. The CNY's share of global trade finance transactions has increased from 1.9% during 2018-2021 to 6.4% in November last year and 7.4% in March. We would think the freezing of Russian reserves has led to a sharp increase in the usage of renminbi in Russia-China trade, though other EMs might also have begun to dip their toes in CNY-denominated trade, too. Renminbi usage in payments has also doubled since 2022. At the same time, the dollar's share in international trade financing has declined from around 86% during 2018-2021 to around 81% now, a decline similar to the increase seen by the renminbi.

Since 2020, the rising share of renminbi in global trade finance and payments has trended together with the share of renminbi in Chinese cross-border transfers. This could suggest that cross-border renminbi transfers were, to some extent, driven by cross-border transfers between Chinese entities rather than with non-Chinese entities before 2020. If true, this would mean that the rise in cross-border renminbi transfers since 2020 has been due to "real" activities rather than 'financial engineering'.

The share of global trade finance denominated in dollars vs. renminbi has been closely inversely related since at least 2022. This also supports the idea that the renminbi's global usage has risen, and that it has come at the cost of the dollar.

When it comes to onshore FX trading, the dollar is as dominant as ever across different FX instruments as well as on the whole. This mirrors the total ex-CNY cross-border transfers, where the dollar also remains dominant.

Hedging behavior: gradual increase in hedges continues

Another way FX exposure changes is through changes to FX hedging ratios, which measure the extent to which FX assets are protected against moves in foreign exchange rates.

SAFE defines Chinese corporate FX hedging in terms of FX transactions, rather than via the share of FX net assets that are hedged. This ratio has increased from a bottom of <10% in 2015 to nearly 30% in 2025.

Banks' net FX exposure (as a percent of net assets) has declined from a high of around 3.5% in 2015 to below 1.5% by Q4 last year.

The two series are different from regular "FX hedge ratios" yet might still tell us something about "true" hedge ratios, given how closely they correlate over time.

FX exposure of Chinese entities: stable net dollar assets amid a decline in both assets and liabilities

Most Chinese foreign assets (including non-dollar assets) are held by the PBOC, though holdings by other entities have increased in the past decade.

The share of Chinese FX assets that are held in dollars has not materially declined in recent years, however.

As we have little insight into the composition of official FX holdings, we dig into banks' external assets and liabilities, for which we have better data. This data is compiled by SAFE on a BoP basis, and therefore measures Chinese banks' assets and liabilities against non-residents across both CNY and FX. We can see that, like for flows related to trade, it is a question of dollars vs. renminbi and that holdings of non-USD FX remain small.

Chinese banks' net dollar assets now stand at $476bn according to the BoP-basis data published by SAFE. This is much below the $1,115bn implied by the PBOC's data on net foreign assets of "other depositary institutions" (i.e., banks). Though there are likely differences in the statistical caliber of this data, we are surprised that this divergence hasn't gotten attention; we are not sure what is behind the large difference and will investigate the topic further. One explanation could be that the $1,11bn includes net FX assets held onshore, whereas the $476bn only includes assets and liabilities vs. non-residents. While it is technically true that Chinese banks' external net dollar assets have been broadly stable, it has occurred amid a $200bn decline in banks' external dollar assets and $224bn decline in their external dollar liabilities since Q4-2021 (i.e. before Russia invaded Ukraine).

There are many actors beyond banks in China, of course. To get a better sense of dollar holdings beyond banks, we do a rough estimate of bank vs. non-bank holdings of dollar-denominated loans and deposits, as well as bonds. More specifically, we apply banks' dollar share of external assets and apply this to the given IIP category (and our estimate therefore assumes that banks and non-banks' dollar allocations are similar across loans, deposits, and bonds).

Loans and deposits: Chinese external dollar net loans and deposit assets stood at $356bn in Q4-2024, down from $478bn in Q1-2022. Our assumptions furthermore imply that banks' and non-banks' external USD loans and deposit assets are of rather similar size. One explanation for the large size of non-bank dollar net assets could be that they have a substantial amount of dollar deposits with banks outside of China.

Bonds: the vast majority of external dollar net assets are held by banks, however, and non-banks' net assets only turned positive during 2023.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 13:25

UBS Warns On Slumping iPhone Demand As WWDC 2025 Kicks Off Watch WWDC 25: 

*   *    * 

 

Update (1312ET): 

That was quick. 

• APPLE TURNS NEGATIVE DURING PRESENTATION AT DEVELOPER'S CONF.

• APPLE SAYS APPLE INTELLIGENCE MODELS ARE COMING FOR DEVELOPERS

And puke.

*   *    * 

 

Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference has kicked off, where the tech giant will roll out the usual updates to iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, and visionOS.

One year ago, CEO Tim Cook unveiled "Apple Intelligence." Since then? A total flop... 

One year ago, the "experts" confused the post WWDC surge in AAPL stock with excitement over Apple AI (which was a completely disaster) when it was just a flood of stock buyback orders. Expect the same this year. https://t.co/X6ldA3fRfb

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 9, 2025

Tech blog Engadget offered insights on what to expect from today's event:

One of the big things we expect Apple to announce later today, based on the rumors, is a new naming standard for its various platforms. The company might move to a year-based identifier instead of an arbitrary generation number. That means instead of iOS 19, iPadOS 19 and watchOS 12, we could see iOS 26, iPadOS 26 and watchOS 26 to indicate the year most people will be using the latest software.'

. . .

As has become the norm, there is already plenty of reporting and rumors out there on what we can expect to hear from Apple later today. Some of the more intriguing include a major update to iPadOS that would make it more Mac-like and better for productivity, multi-tasking and app window management. Some less functional but still noteworthy changes, according to the rumors, include a possible visual refresh and new naming method.

Engadget's Nathan Ingraham noted, "Should we have an over/under bet on how many times we hear the words "Apple Intelligence" today?"

Will rainbows translate into more iPhone sales? 

On Sunday, UBS analyst David Vogt shared new survey data with clients based on responses from 7,500 smartphone users across the U.S., U.K., China, Germany, and Japan. The survey data painted a bleak picture of iPhone demand.

Key Survey Findings:

• U.S. and China Intent Drops: iPhone purchase intent in the U.S. dropped to 17%—the lowest in five years—while China fell from 22% to 16% year-over-year, hitting its weakest level in nearly a decade.

• Other Markets Mixed: The UK and Germany saw flat or slight declines, while Japan was the only country with a modest improvement (13%, up from 11%).

• Average iPhone Age Climbs: The average iPhone in use is now 22.9 months old, the highest ever recorded by UBS, indicating delayed upgrade cycles.

Vogt noted that Apple's new GenAI suite, branded as Apple Intelligence, has failed to spark any meaningful upgrade cycle outside China. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 13:05

UBS Warns On Slumping iPhone Demand As WWDC 2025 Kicks Off Watch WWDC 25: 

*   *    * 

 

Update (1312ET): 

That was quick. 

• APPLE TURNS NEGATIVE DURING PRESENTATION AT DEVELOPER'S CONF.

• APPLE SAYS APPLE INTELLIGENCE MODELS ARE COMING FOR DEVELOPERS

And puke.

*   *    * 

 

Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference has kicked off, where the tech giant will roll out the usual updates to iOS, iPadOS, macOS, watchOS, and visionOS.

One year ago, CEO Tim Cook unveiled "Apple Intelligence." Since then? A total flop... 

One year ago, the "experts" confused the post WWDC surge in AAPL stock with excitement over Apple AI (which was a completely disaster) when it was just a flood of stock buyback orders. Expect the same this year. https://t.co/X6ldA3fRfb

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 9, 2025

Tech blog Engadget offered insights on what to expect from today's event:

One of the big things we expect Apple to announce later today, based on the rumors, is a new naming standard for its various platforms. The company might move to a year-based identifier instead of an arbitrary generation number. That means instead of iOS 19, iPadOS 19 and watchOS 12, we could see iOS 26, iPadOS 26 and watchOS 26 to indicate the year most people will be using the latest software.'

. . .

As has become the norm, there is already plenty of reporting and rumors out there on what we can expect to hear from Apple later today. Some of the more intriguing include a major update to iPadOS that would make it more Mac-like and better for productivity, multi-tasking and app window management. Some less functional but still noteworthy changes, according to the rumors, include a possible visual refresh and new naming method.

Engadget's Nathan Ingraham noted, "Should we have an over/under bet on how many times we hear the words "Apple Intelligence" today?"

Will rainbows translate into more iPhone sales? 

On Sunday, UBS analyst David Vogt shared new survey data with clients based on responses from 7,500 smartphone users across the U.S., U.K., China, Germany, and Japan. The survey data painted a bleak picture of iPhone demand.

Key Survey Findings:

• U.S. and China Intent Drops: iPhone purchase intent in the U.S. dropped to 17%—the lowest in five years—while China fell from 22% to 16% year-over-year, hitting its weakest level in nearly a decade.

• Other Markets Mixed: The UK and Germany saw flat or slight declines, while Japan was the only country with a modest improvement (13%, up from 11%).

• Average iPhone Age Climbs: The average iPhone in use is now 22.9 months old, the highest ever recorded by UBS, indicating delayed upgrade cycles.

Vogt noted that Apple's new GenAI suite, branded as Apple Intelligence, has failed to spark any meaningful upgrade cycle outside China. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 13:05

OPEC Oil Production Fell Short Of OPEC+ Target In May

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

OPEC’s crude oil production in May increased less than called for in the OPEC+ agreement which had a large output hike planned for last month.

All 12 OPEC members produced 26.75 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, up by 150,000 bpd from April, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.

The five OPEC members that have pledged cuts in the OPEC+ agreement and are now gradually unwinding these cuts had to raise their combined output by 310,000 bpd. But they only lifted production by 180,000 bpd, according to the Reuters survey of data from oil-flow tracking companies and sources at OPEC, oil firms, and consultants.  

That’s because Iraq made cuts to compensate for previously chronic overproduction and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) raised output by less than their targets, the Reuters survey found.

Saudi Arabia made the largest hike in May compared to April. OPEC’s top producer and de facto leader, and leader of the OPEC+ alliance, raised output by 130,000 bpd, per the survey.

That’s not unusual as Saudi Arabia had the largest share of cuts.

OPEC+ producers who have made cuts in the previous three years are now unwinding these at a pace of 411,000 bpd in May, June, and July.

The OPEC+ group earlier this month decided it would boost July production by another 411,000 bpd, citing “current healthy oil market fundamentals and steady global economic outlook.”

In a note on Monday, commodity analysts from Morgan Stanley said the 411,000 barrels daily that OPEC+ said it would add to oil production in May did not materialize.

“Notwithstanding the around 1 million-barrel-a-day increase in production quotas between March and June, an actual increase in production is hard to detect,” the team, led by Martijn Rats said in the note, as quoted by Bloomberg.

“Notably, it does not appear that production in Saudi Arabia has ramped up significantly,” according to Morgan Stanley.

Still, the bank believes that OPEC+ would add some 420,000 bpd to its crude production between June and September, tipping the market into a surplus.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 12:45

OPEC Oil Production Fell Short Of OPEC+ Target In May

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

OPEC’s crude oil production in May increased less than called for in the OPEC+ agreement which had a large output hike planned for last month.

All 12 OPEC members produced 26.75 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, up by 150,000 bpd from April, a Reuters survey showed on Monday.

The five OPEC members that have pledged cuts in the OPEC+ agreement and are now gradually unwinding these cuts had to raise their combined output by 310,000 bpd. But they only lifted production by 180,000 bpd, according to the Reuters survey of data from oil-flow tracking companies and sources at OPEC, oil firms, and consultants.  

That’s because Iraq made cuts to compensate for previously chronic overproduction and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) raised output by less than their targets, the Reuters survey found.

Saudi Arabia made the largest hike in May compared to April. OPEC’s top producer and de facto leader, and leader of the OPEC+ alliance, raised output by 130,000 bpd, per the survey.

That’s not unusual as Saudi Arabia had the largest share of cuts.

OPEC+ producers who have made cuts in the previous three years are now unwinding these at a pace of 411,000 bpd in May, June, and July.

The OPEC+ group earlier this month decided it would boost July production by another 411,000 bpd, citing “current healthy oil market fundamentals and steady global economic outlook.”

In a note on Monday, commodity analysts from Morgan Stanley said the 411,000 barrels daily that OPEC+ said it would add to oil production in May did not materialize.

“Notwithstanding the around 1 million-barrel-a-day increase in production quotas between March and June, an actual increase in production is hard to detect,” the team, led by Martijn Rats said in the note, as quoted by Bloomberg.

“Notably, it does not appear that production in Saudi Arabia has ramped up significantly,” according to Morgan Stanley.

Still, the bank believes that OPEC+ would add some 420,000 bpd to its crude production between June and September, tipping the market into a surplus.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 12:45

China Exports To US Tumble As Transshipments To Evade Trump Tariffs Soar

Overnight China published its latest inflation/trade data dump. It showed that, as expected, China is still unable to kickstart its economy as it remains mired in deflation, with May CPI printing -0.1% (the last time CPI was positive was in January) while PPI is going from bad to worse, printing -3.3% YoY, and negative since February 2023! 

Meanwhile, China's trade growth moderated in May - after the April surge - despite the substantial tariff rollback between the US and China, and came in below consensus expectations (exports: +4.8% yoy, imports: -3.4% yoy).

The moderation in headline export growth reflects the continued fall in China's exports to the US with another 17% sequential decline after seasonal adjustment.  Meanwhile, the decline in imports appears widespread, consistent with fewer working days in May compared with a year ago.

By product, export value of housing-related products fell in May, while exports of automobile and tech-related products rose. The imports of energy products and metal ores declined notably, partly due to falling prices. Overall, the trade surplus was US$103.2bn in May, higher than in April.

By region, while China's exports to the US plunged further in May, exports to other economies picked up.
 

As shown in the next chart, while normally Chinese exports to the US would be around $50BN, they have since dropped to $30 billion.  And as Brad Setser notes, "the trailing 12m of exports to the US isn't tracking exports to Europe."

The trade war impact is there if you know where to look -- exports to the US were ~ $30b, and they normally would be ~$50b. The trailing 12m of exports to the US isn't tracking exports to Europe (an easy test)

3/ pic.twitter.com/CQj2bn7H0n

— Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) June 9, 2025

Import values from most trading partners declined in May, except for those from the EU and LatAm.

The broader collapse in Chinese exports to the US, as reported by China, and US imports from China, as reported by the US (both are used to the rather gaping data divergences in the past), can be seen in the next chart.

Among major DM countries, exports to the US dropped by 34.5% yoy in May (vs. -21.0% yoy in April). China's imports from the US declined by 18.1% yoy in May (vs. -13.8% yoy in April). China's exports to the EU rose by 12.0% yoy in May (vs. +8.3% yoy in April), while imports from the EU were roughly unchanged from a year ago in May (vs. -16.5% yoy in April). Among major EM countries, exports to ASEAN rose by 14.8% yoy in May (vs. 20.8% yoy in April). Exports to Africa rose by 33.3% in May (vs. 26.3% yoy in April), however, imports from EM countries mostly moderated from April to May.

So how has China's economy not yet collapse if it has lost about 40% of its US export markets? Simple: transshipments. To fill the hole from exports lost to the US, China is ramping up exports to other countries... that then go on to re-export to the US!

So far there are no real signs that I can see that Trump's go-it-alone tariffs have tamed China's export juggernaut

6/6 pic.twitter.com/AOW25L65nc

— Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) June 9, 2025

And to make it abudnantly clear that all the trade war has so far achieved is boosted transshipments is the following Setser chart showing that whatever export volume has been given up by China, has been more than made up by ASEAN (mostly Vietnam) + Taiwan, i.e. filling the hole with transshipments.

Some more interesting (and likely more important) things happening right now, but still wanted to highlight a couple of the details of the US trade data.

Seems pretty clear what is happening here

1/ pic.twitter.com/gllUggBwuI

— Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) June 6, 2025

The bottom line, as everyone who is familiar with China's economy knows, and as Brad Setser repeats this morning, is that "net exports are still driving China's economy", and is why not just the US - but also Europe - is expressing  outrage with Beijing's relentless mercantilist model, which exports deflation - and economic pain - to every market targeted by China's sweatshops.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 12:25

China Exports To US Tumble As Transshipments To Evade Trump Tariffs Soar

Overnight China published its latest inflation/trade data dump. It showed that, as expected, China is still unable to kickstart its economy as it remains mired in deflation, with May CPI printing -0.1% (the last time CPI was positive was in January) while PPI is going from bad to worse, printing -3.3% YoY, and negative since February 2023! 

Meanwhile, China's trade growth moderated in May - after the April surge - despite the substantial tariff rollback between the US and China, and came in below consensus expectations (exports: +4.8% yoy, imports: -3.4% yoy).

The moderation in headline export growth reflects the continued fall in China's exports to the US with another 17% sequential decline after seasonal adjustment.  Meanwhile, the decline in imports appears widespread, consistent with fewer working days in May compared with a year ago.

By product, export value of housing-related products fell in May, while exports of automobile and tech-related products rose. The imports of energy products and metal ores declined notably, partly due to falling prices. Overall, the trade surplus was US$103.2bn in May, higher than in April.

By region, while China's exports to the US plunged further in May, exports to other economies picked up.
 

As shown in the next chart, while normally Chinese exports to the US would be around $50BN, they have since dropped to $30 billion.  And as Brad Setser notes, "the trailing 12m of exports to the US isn't tracking exports to Europe."

The trade war impact is there if you know where to look -- exports to the US were ~ $30b, and they normally would be ~$50b. The trailing 12m of exports to the US isn't tracking exports to Europe (an easy test)

3/ pic.twitter.com/CQj2bn7H0n

— Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) June 9, 2025

Import values from most trading partners declined in May, except for those from the EU and LatAm.

The broader collapse in Chinese exports to the US, as reported by China, and US imports from China, as reported by the US (both are used to the rather gaping data divergences in the past), can be seen in the next chart.

Among major DM countries, exports to the US dropped by 34.5% yoy in May (vs. -21.0% yoy in April). China's imports from the US declined by 18.1% yoy in May (vs. -13.8% yoy in April). China's exports to the EU rose by 12.0% yoy in May (vs. +8.3% yoy in April), while imports from the EU were roughly unchanged from a year ago in May (vs. -16.5% yoy in April). Among major EM countries, exports to ASEAN rose by 14.8% yoy in May (vs. 20.8% yoy in April). Exports to Africa rose by 33.3% in May (vs. 26.3% yoy in April), however, imports from EM countries mostly moderated from April to May.

So how has China's economy not yet collapse if it has lost about 40% of its US export markets? Simple: transshipments. To fill the hole from exports lost to the US, China is ramping up exports to other countries... that then go on to re-export to the US!

So far there are no real signs that I can see that Trump's go-it-alone tariffs have tamed China's export juggernaut

6/6 pic.twitter.com/AOW25L65nc

— Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) June 9, 2025

And to make it abudnantly clear that all the trade war has so far achieved is boosted transshipments is the following Setser chart showing that whatever export volume has been given up by China, has been more than made up by ASEAN (mostly Vietnam) + Taiwan, i.e. filling the hole with transshipments.

Some more interesting (and likely more important) things happening right now, but still wanted to highlight a couple of the details of the US trade data.

Seems pretty clear what is happening here

1/ pic.twitter.com/gllUggBwuI

— Brad Setser (@Brad_Setser) June 6, 2025

The bottom line, as everyone who is familiar with China's economy knows, and as Brad Setser repeats this morning, is that "net exports are still driving China's economy", and is why not just the US - but also Europe - is expressing  outrage with Beijing's relentless mercantilist model, which exports deflation - and economic pain - to every market targeted by China's sweatshops.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 12:25

Trump Did It: Executives & Administrators Are Increasingly Using TDI To Fight DEI

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Trump made me do it.”

Across the country, this is a virtual mantra being mouthed everywhere from businesses to higher education. Corporations are eliminating woke programs. Why? Trump did it. Universities are eliminating DEI offices and cracking down on campus extremism. Trump did it. Democratic politicians are abandoning far-left policies. Trump did it.

For those who lack both courage or conviction, the claim of coercion is often the next best thing. The “TDI defense” is born.

Of course, they did not invent Trump, but they needed him. For years, schools like Harvard and Columbia ignored warnings about the rising antisemitism on campuses. They refused to punish students engaged in criminal conduct, including occupying and trashing buildings. These administrators did not want to risk being tagged by the far-left mob for taking meaningful action.

Then the election occurred, and suddenly they were able to blame Trump for doing what they should have been doing all along.

Administrators are now cracking down on extreme elements on campuses.

At the same time, hundreds of schools are closing DEI offices around the country. Again, most are not challenging the Trump administration’s orders on DEI or seeking to adopt more limited responses. They are all in with the move, while professing that they have little choice.

In other words, schools are increasingly turning to TDI to end DEI.

The legal landscape has changed with an administration committed to opposing many DEI programs as discriminatory and unlawful. However, it is the speed and general lack of resistance that is so notable. In most cases, the Trump administration did not have to ask twice. Trump seemed to “have them at hello,” as if they were longing for a reason to reverse these trends.

Many will continue to fight this fight surreptitiously. For example, shortly before the Trump election, the University of North Carolina System Board of Governors voted to ban DEI and focus on “institutional neutrality.” Yet, even Administrators emboldened by the TDI defense are finding resistance in their ranks. For exsmple, UNC Asheville Dean of Students Megan Pugh was caught on videotape, saying that eliminating these offices means nothing: “I mean we probably still do anyway… but you gotta keep it quiet.”  She added, “I love breaking rules.”

The Board, perhaps not feeling the same thrill, reportedly responded by firing her.

The same pattern is playing out in businesses. Over the last few weeks, companies ranging from Amazon to IBM have removed references to DEI programs or policies. Bank of America explained, “We evaluate and adjust our programs in light of new laws, court decisions, and, more recently, executive orders from the new administration.”

Once established, these DEI offices tended to expand as an irresistible force within their institutions and companies. Full-time diversity experts demanded additional hirings and policies on hiring, promotion, and public campaigns. Since these experts were tasked with finding areas for “reform,” their proposals were treated as extensions of that mandate. To oppose the reforms was to oppose the cause.

While some executives and administrators supported such efforts, others simply lacked the courage to oppose them. No one wanted to be accused of being opposed to “equity” or being racist, sexist, or homophobic. The results were continually expanding programs impacting every level of businesses and institutions.

Then Trump showed up. Suddenly, these executives and administrators had an excuse to reverse this trend. They could also rely on court decisions that have undermined long-standing claims of advocates that favoring certain groups at the expense of others was entirely lawful.

This week, the Supreme Court added to these cases with its unanimous ruling in Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services, to remove impediments to lawsuits by members of majority groups who are discriminated against.

For many years, lower courts have required members of majority groups (white, male, or heterosexual) to shoulder an added burden before they could establish claims under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act. In a decision written by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the court rejected that additional burden and ordered that everyone must be treated similarly under the law.

Many commentators noted that the ruling further undermined the rationales for disparate treatment based on race or other criteria within DEI.

In other words, more of these programs are likely to be the subject of federal investigations and lawsuits. Of course, if these executives and administrators were truly committed to the programs in principle, they could resolve to fight in the courts. The alternative is just to blame Trump and restore prior policies that enforce federal standards against all discriminatory or preferred treatment given to employees based on race, sex, religion, or other classifications.

Former Vice President Hubert Humphrey once observed that “to err is human. To blame someone else is politics.” That is evident among politicians. For years, many moderate Democrats voted to support far-left agendas during the Biden administration, lacking the courage or principles to oppose the radical wing of the Democratic Party. Now, some are coming forward to say that the party has “lost touch with voters.”

Rather than admit that their years of supporting these policies were wrong, they blame Trump and argue that the party must move toward the center to survive.

The calculus is simple: You never act on principle when you can blame a villain instead. It is not a profile of courage but one of simple convenience. No need for admissions or responsibility — just TDI and done.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 12:05

Trump Did It: Executives & Administrators Are Increasingly Using TDI To Fight DEI

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

“Trump made me do it.”

Across the country, this is a virtual mantra being mouthed everywhere from businesses to higher education. Corporations are eliminating woke programs. Why? Trump did it. Universities are eliminating DEI offices and cracking down on campus extremism. Trump did it. Democratic politicians are abandoning far-left policies. Trump did it.

For those who lack both courage or conviction, the claim of coercion is often the next best thing. The “TDI defense” is born.

Of course, they did not invent Trump, but they needed him. For years, schools like Harvard and Columbia ignored warnings about the rising antisemitism on campuses. They refused to punish students engaged in criminal conduct, including occupying and trashing buildings. These administrators did not want to risk being tagged by the far-left mob for taking meaningful action.

Then the election occurred, and suddenly they were able to blame Trump for doing what they should have been doing all along.

Administrators are now cracking down on extreme elements on campuses.

At the same time, hundreds of schools are closing DEI offices around the country. Again, most are not challenging the Trump administration’s orders on DEI or seeking to adopt more limited responses. They are all in with the move, while professing that they have little choice.

In other words, schools are increasingly turning to TDI to end DEI.

The legal landscape has changed with an administration committed to opposing many DEI programs as discriminatory and unlawful. However, it is the speed and general lack of resistance that is so notable. In most cases, the Trump administration did not have to ask twice. Trump seemed to “have them at hello,” as if they were longing for a reason to reverse these trends.

Many will continue to fight this fight surreptitiously. For example, shortly before the Trump election, the University of North Carolina System Board of Governors voted to ban DEI and focus on “institutional neutrality.” Yet, even Administrators emboldened by the TDI defense are finding resistance in their ranks. For exsmple, UNC Asheville Dean of Students Megan Pugh was caught on videotape, saying that eliminating these offices means nothing: “I mean we probably still do anyway… but you gotta keep it quiet.”  She added, “I love breaking rules.”

The Board, perhaps not feeling the same thrill, reportedly responded by firing her.

The same pattern is playing out in businesses. Over the last few weeks, companies ranging from Amazon to IBM have removed references to DEI programs or policies. Bank of America explained, “We evaluate and adjust our programs in light of new laws, court decisions, and, more recently, executive orders from the new administration.”

Once established, these DEI offices tended to expand as an irresistible force within their institutions and companies. Full-time diversity experts demanded additional hirings and policies on hiring, promotion, and public campaigns. Since these experts were tasked with finding areas for “reform,” their proposals were treated as extensions of that mandate. To oppose the reforms was to oppose the cause.

While some executives and administrators supported such efforts, others simply lacked the courage to oppose them. No one wanted to be accused of being opposed to “equity” or being racist, sexist, or homophobic. The results were continually expanding programs impacting every level of businesses and institutions.

Then Trump showed up. Suddenly, these executives and administrators had an excuse to reverse this trend. They could also rely on court decisions that have undermined long-standing claims of advocates that favoring certain groups at the expense of others was entirely lawful.

This week, the Supreme Court added to these cases with its unanimous ruling in Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services, to remove impediments to lawsuits by members of majority groups who are discriminated against.

For many years, lower courts have required members of majority groups (white, male, or heterosexual) to shoulder an added burden before they could establish claims under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act. In a decision written by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, the court rejected that additional burden and ordered that everyone must be treated similarly under the law.

Many commentators noted that the ruling further undermined the rationales for disparate treatment based on race or other criteria within DEI.

In other words, more of these programs are likely to be the subject of federal investigations and lawsuits. Of course, if these executives and administrators were truly committed to the programs in principle, they could resolve to fight in the courts. The alternative is just to blame Trump and restore prior policies that enforce federal standards against all discriminatory or preferred treatment given to employees based on race, sex, religion, or other classifications.

Former Vice President Hubert Humphrey once observed that “to err is human. To blame someone else is politics.” That is evident among politicians. For years, many moderate Democrats voted to support far-left agendas during the Biden administration, lacking the courage or principles to oppose the radical wing of the Democratic Party. Now, some are coming forward to say that the party has “lost touch with voters.”

Rather than admit that their years of supporting these policies were wrong, they blame Trump and argue that the party must move toward the center to survive.

The calculus is simple: You never act on principle when you can blame a villain instead. It is not a profile of courage but one of simple convenience. No need for admissions or responsibility — just TDI and done.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 12:05

British Gov't: Western Cultural Concerns Are Signs Of "Right-Wing Terrorist Ideology"

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Free speech in the United Kingdom has long been in free fall, with expanding criminalization and regulation of speech. Much of this effort is carried out to combat disinformation or radicalism.

The subjectivity of such “Prevent” standards is evident in a new media report that officers are being trained to look for “cultural nationalism,” including those people who are concerned that Western culture is under threat from mass migration.

Such concerns are now viewed as indicative of “right-wing terrorist ideology.”

Europe, like the United States, is showing a surge in political support for politicians seeking to limit and reverse mass immigration into their countries. That includes Great Britain.

The material is part of an online training course for British hospitals, schools, universities, and other public institutions that are expected to identify and report extremists to the government.

The training would subject a large number of British citizens to potential investigation as right-wing extremists. In 2023, a government report by William Shawcross concluded “populist conservative voices who have nothing to do with violent extremism” are often identified by investigators even though the overwhelming number of attacks committed in the UK were “Islamist in nature.”

There have also been warnings that by classifying “cultural nationalism” as an indication of extremism, the anti-terror scheme could be used to stifle public debate.

A Home Office spokesman insisted, however, that “Prevent is not about restricting debate or free speech, but about protecting those susceptible to radicalisation.”

That is a rationale already used in the UK to arrest those with dangerous thoughts or viewpoints.

For years, I have been writing about the decline of free speech in the United Kingdom and the steady stream of arrests, including in my book, The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.

A man was convicted of sending a tweet while drunk, referring to dead soldiers. Another was arrested for wearing an anti-police t-shirt. Another was arrested for calling the Irish boyfriend of his ex-girlfriend a “leprechaun.” Yet another was arrested for singing “Kung Fu Fighting.” A teenager was arrested for protesting outside of a Scientology center with a sign calling the religion a “cult.”

Nicholas Brock, 52, was convicted of a thought crime in Maidenhead, Berkshire. The neo-Nazi was given a four-year sentence for what the court called his “toxic ideology” based on the contents of the home he shared with his mother in Maidenhead, Berkshire. Judge Peter Lodder QC dismissed free speech or free thought concerns with a truly Orwellian statement:

“I do not sentence you for your political views, but the extremity of those views informs the assessment of dangerousness.”

Lodder lambasted Brock for holding Nazi and other hateful values:

“[i]t is clear that you are a right-wing extremist, your enthusiasm for this repulsive and toxic ideology is demonstrated by the graphic and racist iconography which you have studied and appeared to share with others…”

Recently, the UK effectively resumed blasphemy prosecutions and previously arrested a woman for silently praying to herself near an abortion clinic.

The training captures the potential chilling effect on speech where any publicly stated concerns over immigration and Western Civilization could lead to your being reported to the police. It reflects the cavalier approach to such speech regulations in not just the UK but throughout Europe.  However, this European model is being promoted by many in the United States, including some who are calling on the European Union to challenge the United States over the regulation of speech.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 11:25

Advance Into Central Ukrainian Region Is Part Of Putin's 'Buffer-Zone': Kremlin

We detailed Sunday that Russian forces have begun advancing into Ukraine's Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time in the three-year-plus long war, marking a significant territorial escalation amid stalled peace talks. The Kremlin on Monday described the expanded offensive as key to establishing President Vladimir Putin's buffer zone in a fresh statement.

The recent advance into Dnepropetrovsk Region, which borders Donetsk to the West, is part of the push establish a "buffer zone" on the front line, Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

War Memorial Dnipropetrovsk, Wikimedia Commons

"It is one of the goals, of course, but if we talk about the nuances of the military actions themselves, then your questions should be addressed to the Defense Ministry," Peskov said.

The defense ministry has confirmed that tank division of the battle group 'Center group' - the 90th Armored Division - reached the western border of Donetsk as of Sunday, and was advancing into the Dnepropetrovsk oblast.

In late May, Putin had announced before ministers and Kremlin officials that he's ordered a big buffer zone along Russia's southern border to protect the towns and populations there from cross-border strikes from Ukraine.

"We have approved the creation of a necessary security buffer zone along our borders. Our armed forces are actively working to accomplish this task," the Russian leader had stated.

April, May, and early June have seen thousands of drones launched from Ukraine onto southern oblasts, with some drones targeting as far as Moscow, which has resulted in commercial flight stoppages at several area airports.

The timing of Putin's buffer zone plan was very significant, given that President Trump is increasingly being perceived as 'stepping back' from pursuit of a final peace settlement, perhaps content to 'let them fight it out'.

The NY Times last month described that Trump is ready to throw his hands up in the air and say 'not my problem' as neither side is ready to compromise:

For months, President Trump has been threatening to simply walk away from the frustrating negotiations for a cease-fire between Russia and Ukraine.

After a phone call on Monday between Mr. Trump and President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, that appears to be exactly what the American president is doing. The deeper question now is whether he is also abandoning America’s three-year-long project to support Ukraine, a nascent democracy that he has frequently blamed for being illegally invaded.

The Times concluded, "In a reversal, President Trump appears to have backed off joining a European push for new sanctions on Russia, seemingly eager to move on to doing business deals with it."

Also last month, hawkish top national security official Dmitry Medvedev warned that Russia could eventually extend the buffer zone across almost the whole of Ukraine.

Former Russian president Medvedev was being threatening and perhaps hyperbolic, given Russia has struggled to slowly solidify its hold over the Donbass, yet Putin has still held back on a full declaration of war and mobilization of the whole of society.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 11:05

Tether USDT Stablecoin Seen On Bolivian Store Price-Tags

Authored by Adrian Zmudzinski via CoinTelegraph.com,

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has shared photos of goods in a Bolivian airport shop priced in the company’s stablecoin, USDt, suggesting growing unofficial use of the cryptocurrency amid the country’s ailing economy.

In a Saturday X post, Ardoino shared images of items being priced in USDt in Bolivia, including sunglasses and sweets. One photo showed a notice to customers that prices were set in USDT:

“Our products are priced in USDT (Tether), a stable cryptocurrency with a reference price informed daily by the Central Bank of Bolivia, based on the rate from Binance (a cryptocurrency trading platform),” the notice read.

The notice said customers could pay in either local fiat currency, Bolivianos, or US dollars. USDT was used to establish the dollar-Bolivianos exchange rate.

Source: Paolo Ardoino

USDt making waves in Bolivia

The notice and the items were photographed at Duty Fly, an airport shop offering duty-free items to its customers. Neither Duty Fly nor Tether responded to Cointelegraph’s request for comment.

It’s unclear how widespread the use of USDT is as a pricing benchmark across Bolivia, but other reports suggest that the stablecoin is gaining considerable popularity in the country. In late October 2024, major local bank Banco Bisa began offering a custody service for USDT, stating that it would enable its clients to buy, sell and transfer the asset through the bank.

Bolivia’s economy crumbles

Bolivia’s economy has been in steep decline. The country’s usable foreign reserves fell from $15 billion in 2014 to $1.98 billion in December 2024, equivalent to only 2.9 months of imports. Of that amount, less than $50 million was in cash, and the rest was in gold.

Bolivia has a thriving black market for dollars, with the street rate reaching about 10 Bolivianos per dollar as of mid-2024. The current official exchange rate is approaching 7 Bolivianos per US dollar.

USD/BOB exchange rate chart. Source: Google Finance

The Bolivian government also spends about $56 million per week importing diesel and gasoline, yet it still faces nationwide shortages. The local Consumer Price Index inflation stood at 14.6% as of March 2025.

One of the photos shared by Ardoino showed a pack of Oreos priced between 15 and 22 USDT, underscoring the rapid erosion of the local currency’s purchasing power.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 10:45

Greta Thunberg Claims She's Been 'Kidnapped' By Israeli Forces

Authored by Ken Silva via Headline USA,

Climate alarmist turned humanitarian activist Greta Thunberg said Sunday that she’s been “kidnapped” after she and the rest of the crew aboard the The Madleen, a sailboat that’s trying to break Israel’s starvation blockade on Gaza, was intercepted and boarded by Israeli forces.

‘My name is Greta Thunberg and I am from Sweden. If you see this video, we have been intercepted and kidnapped in international waters by the Israeli occupational forces, or forces that support Israel,” she said. “I urge all my friends, family and colleagues to put pressure on the Swedish government to release me as soon as possible. ”

"My name is Greta Thunberg and I am from Sweden. If you see this video, we have been intercepted and kidnapped in international waters by the Israeli occupational forces, or forces that support Israel." pic.twitter.com/Ku7QILHpfd

— Prem Thakker (@prem_thakker) June 9, 2025

According to antiwar.com’s Dave Decamp, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered the IDF to intercept the Madleen earlier on Sunday. DeCamp reported that the boat is carrying 12 civilian activists who are traveling unarmed, including Thunberg.

“I have instructed the IDF to act to ensure that the hate flotilla ‘Madleen’ does not reach the shores of Gaza—and to take all necessary measures to achieve this,” Katz wrote on X, as reported by DeCamp.

“A senior Israeli official told Israel’s Channel 12 that if the boat doesn’t turn around, it would be boarded by Israeli Navy commandos and brought to the port of Ashdod,” DeCamp reported.

Israel supporters in the U.S. have suggested Israel should sink the Madleen, including sports gambling mogul Dave Portnoy and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

“Hope Greta and her friends can swim!” Graham said in a post on X.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 09:25

Key Events This Week: CPI, US-China Trade Talks, Treasury Auctions

The highlight this week will be US CPI on Wednesday and a resumption of trade talks between the US and China today in London. Bessent, Lutnick and Greer are set to meet Chinese representatives at the meeting today. So it's all the big guns from the US administration. DB's Jim Reid reminds us that the monthly 30-yr UST auction on Thursday will also be a heavy focus with all the attention on the long-end in recent weeks. There's a 10yr auction the day before as well. So a good test of demand as the fiscal bill meanders its way through Congress.

Before we preview the CPI release the other main highlights this week are the NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations today; US NFIB small business optimism, UK employment data and Danish and Norwegian CPI tomorrow; that CPI, the 10yr UST auction and the UK Spending Review on Wednesday; US PPI, US jobless claims, UK monthly GDP, the 30yr UST auction and my birthday on Thursday; and the UoM consumer sentiment (including inflation expectations) on Friday. A fuller day-by-day diary of events is at the end as usual.

With regards to US CPI, DB's US economists expect weak seasonally adjusted gas prices to again keep the headline rate (+0.20% forecast vs. +0.22% previous) gain below that of core (+0.31% vs. +0.24%). This should help the YoY rate for both headline and core to rise two-tenths to 2.5% and 3.0%, respectively. Shorter-term trends for core would be mixed with the three-month annualized rate rising by three-tenths to 2.4% while the six-month rate would remain steady at 3.0%. DB's economists do expect tariffs to begin to impact core goods prices, especially in categories like household furnishings and supplies where we saw potential preliminary tariff impacts in the April data. On the services side, economists will be most attuned to the volatile categories like lodging away and airline fares that have been a meaningful drag of late. For PPI the following day, our economists expect a +0.27% increase in May which would reduce the YoY rate by a couple of tenths. As ever, how the subcomponents that feed into core PCE come out will be the most interesting part of the release. Note that the Fed are now on media blackout ahead of next Wednesday's (18th) FOMC.

It's not clear that the Fed will have learnt too much more than they already knew from Friday's payrolls data. May headline (+139k vs. 147k) and private (140k vs. 146k) payrolls were slightly above the 126k consensus but -95k of net revisions to the two previous months softened the beat. We now have very stable private sector hiring trends over the past three (133k), six (146k) and twelve (122k) months. However the narrow breadth in job growth as health care / social assistance (+78k) and leisure / hospitality (+48k) continued to drive the majority of private sector job gains in May and have accounted for 75% of private job growth over the past twelve months.

Staying on employment there will be increased attention on claims this week given the recent tick up. It's not clear whether its seasonals or evidence that there is some real time slipping in employment trends.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday June 9

• Data: US May NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, April wholesale trade sales, China May CPI, PPI, trade balance, Japan May Economy Watchers survey, bank lending, April BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance
• Central banks: ECB's Elderson speaks

Tuesday June 10

• Data: US May NFIB small business optimism, UK April average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, May jobless claims change, Japan May M2, M3, machine tool orders, Italy April industrial production, Sweden April GDP indicator, Norway and Denmark May CPI
• Central banks: ECB's Villeroy, Holzmann and Rehn speak
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)

Wednesday June 11

• Data: US May CPI, federal budget balance, Japan May PPI, Canada April building permits
• Central banks: ECB’s Lane and Cipollone speak
• Earnings: Oracle, Inditex
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)
• Other: UK Spending Review

Thursday June 12

• Data: US May PPI, Q1 household change in net worth, initial jobless claims, UK May RICS house price balance, April monthly GDP, Germany April current account balance, Italy Q1 unemployment rate
• Central banks: ECB's Muller, Escriva, Knot, Guindos and Schnabel speak
• Earnings: Adobe
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bond (reopening, $22bn)

Friday June 13

• Data: US June University of Michigan survey, Japan April capacity utilisation, Tertiary industry index, Germany May wholesale price index, Italy April trade balance, Eurozone April trade balance, industrial production, Canada April manufacturing sales, Q1 capacity utilisation rate

* * * 

Finally, looking at the US, Goldman notes that the key economic data releases this week are the CPI report on Wednesday and the University of Michigan report on Friday. Fed officials are not expected to comment on monetary policy this week, reflecting the blackout period ahead of the June FOMC meeting.

Monday, June 9 

• 11:00 AM New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations, May (last 3.6%) 

Tuesday, June 10 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 

Wednesday, June 11 

• 08:30 AM CPI (MoM), May (GS +0.17%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); Core CPI (MoM), May (GS +0.25%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.2%); CPI (YoY), May (GS +2.47%, consensus +2.5%, last +2.3%); Core CPI (YoY), May (GS +2.89%, consensus +2.9%, last +2.8%): We estimate a 0.25% increase in May core CPI (month-over-month SA), which would raise the year-over-year rate by 0.1pp to 2.9%. Our forecast reflects a decline in used car prices (-0.5%) reflecting a decline in auction prices, a slight increase in new car prices (+0.1%), and a more moderate increase in the car insurance category (+0.4%) based on premiums in our online dataset. We expect another soft month of travel services inflation based on higher frequency prices measures: we forecast unchanged hotel prices and unchanged airfares. We have penciled in moderate upward pressure from tariffs on categories that are particularly exposed (such as apparel, recreation, and communication) worth +0.05pp on core inflation. We expect the shelter components to decelerate on net (OER +0.31% vs. +0.36% in April; primary rent +0.31% vs. +0.34%). We estimate a 0.17% rise in headline CPI, reflecting higher food prices (+0.4%) but sharply lower energy prices (-1.2%).

Thursday, June 12 

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, May (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last -0.5%); PPI ex-food and energy, May (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.4%) ;PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, May (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last -0.1%); 
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 7 (GS 260k, consensus 241k, last 247k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended May 31 (consensus 1,910k, last 1,904k): We estimate that initial claims rose a further 13k to 260k in the week ended June 7, reflecting a boost from residual seasonality related to the timing of the Memorial Day holiday.

Friday, June 13 

• 10:00 AM University of Michigan consumer sentiment, June preliminary (GS 53.6, consensus 53.5, last 52.2); University of Michigan 5-10-year inflation expectations, June preliminary (GS 4.1%, consensus 4.2%, last 4.2%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 09:16

Futures Rise Ahead Of US-China Talks

US equity futures reverse earlier losses and trade near session highs, with small cap/Russell outperformance pointing to a further potential squeeze in high-beta names as investors monitor talks between the US and China in London to defuse tensions over rare-earth minerals and advanced technology. As of 8:00AM, S&P futures rose 0.2% after the main gauge broke through the 6,000 level for the first time since February at the end of last week. Nasdaq 100 futs gained 0.1%, with Mag7 names mixed premarket, Semis are higher, and cyclicals poised to outperform Defensives. Chinese shares trading in Hong Kong entered a bull market. European stocks barely budged, while a gauge for emerging-market equities was set for its highest close in more than three years. Bond yields are lower, and USD is weaker as commodities are led by Energy and precious metals; silver continues to close the gap to gold, although today it is platinum and palladium's turn to shine. Today’s focus is the US/China trade mtg in London: overnight, HK and HSTECH performed well into the summit. Macro data prints include NY Fed’s 1-year inflation expectations (3.63% prior print) which could affect the yield curve as the Fed is in its blackout window.

In premarket trading, Mag 7 were mostly higher with the exception of Tesla which isdown 2.3% after Baird downgraded the stock to neutral, noting that the recent share price rally followed a fundamentally poor quarter for the EV maker. Other names traded flat to up: Nvidia +0.4%, Apple +0.6%, Alphabet +0.6%, Amazon +0.4%, Meta Platforms +0.04%, Microsoft -0.1%. Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) rose 4% after saying it will separate the company into two publicly traded businesses, splitting its streaming and studios business and its TV networks operations by the middle of next year. Here are some other notable premarket movers: 

• Air mobility stocks are set to extend gains after President Donald Trump signed an executive action establishing an electric “Vertical Takeoff and Landing” integration pilot program, according to a White House fact sheet.
• Archer Aviation (ACHR) +9%, Joby Aviation (JOBY) +9%, Vertical Aerospace (EVTL) +7%
• EchoStar (SATS) falls 9% after the Wall Street Journal reported the company is weighing a potential chapter 11 bankruptcy filing amid a Federal Communications Commission review of certain of its wireless and satellite spectrum rights, citing people familiar with the matter.
• Etoro Group (ETOR) rises 3.3% after Mizuho, Jefferies and Citizens initiate the investment platform with a buy-equivalent rating, citing a growing retail-investor client base and potential for further growth in Europe and the US.
• Grab Holdings Ltd. (GRAB) inches 1% lower after the company said it isn’t in talks to acquire Southeast Asia internet peer GoTo Group “at this time,” signaling it’s halting or at least pausing a planned $7 billion acquisition of its Southeast Asia internet peer.
• Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) drops 13% after the company announced plans to seek holder permission for a reverse stock split between 1-for-10 and 1-for-50 at its special meeting on July 28.
• Robinhood (HOOD) falls 4% and AppLovin (APP) is down 4% after S&P Dow Jones Indices left the S&P 500 unchanged in its latest round of quarterly rebalancing on Friday.
• Sunnova Energy International Inc. (NOVA), one of the largest US rooftop solar companies, falls 33% after filing for bankruptcy in Texas following struggles with mounting debt and diminishing sales prospects.

As if the past two months never happened, the S&P is nearing all-time highs after shaking off the volatility that followed President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff announcements in early April. Still, traders are searching for catalysts for sustained advances, as the full economic impact of the trade war has yet to fully manifest and key trade-related questions remain unresolved.

“We will break to new highs eventually,” Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer at Truist Advisory Services, told Bloomberg TV. “The market is dealing with uncertainty around tariffs, it matters but it’s not the only thing that matters. Technology is back at the forefront.”

At a time when global investors are pushing back against long-term government debt, a $22 billion auction of 30-year bonds on Thursday is bound to be one of Wall Street’s most anticipated events this week. Traders will also focus on Wednesday’s US inflation report for May. Consumers probably saw a slightly faster pace of price increases as companies gradually pass along higher import duties, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. 

“In May, when the 30-year went above 5%, we have seen buyers buying the dip,” Vasiliki Pachatouridi, head of BlackRock’s iShares fixed-income product strategy for EMEA, told Bloomberg TV. “We are underweight the long end of the curve, but there are people out there that still see value in US Treasuries at the right price.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is little changed as stocks tread water with gains in real estate, leisure and travel being offset by losses in technology and banks. The DAX falls 0.5% as SAP shares provide a notable drag on the index. Among individual movers, Alphawave advances after Qualcomm agreed to buy the semiconductor company for about $2.4 billion in cash. Markets in Denmark, Switzerland, Turkey, Hungary and Norway are closed for a holiday. Here are the most notable European movers:

• Alphawave shares gain as much as 23.3% to reach 183.9 pence, after the semiconductor firm said US chipmaker Qualcomm agreed to take over the company for a price equating to 183p per share.
• The Blockchain Group rises as much as 25% after the company launched a €300m capital increase in a deal with asset management firm TOBAM.
• M&G shares rises as much as 2.8% as UBS raises its recommendation to buy from neutral, saying it expects the company to continue to deliver growth within asset management.
• Ageas shares gain as much as 3.2% to the highest since October 2008 after BofA raised its rating on the life insurance firm to buy.
• Carel shares rise as much as 5.5% to the highest since February 2024 after UBS initiated coverage on the HVAC and humidification manufacturercndes with a buy rating.
• European defense stocks are losing ground on Monday, dropping for a second consecutive session, as they fall further from recent record highs.
• Trustpilot Group’s shares fall as much as 8.9%, their biggest drop in two months, after Panmure Liberum resumed coverage with a sell recommendation, noting the consumer-review site faces high execution risk amid a complex multi-year business transition.
• Gaztransport et Technigaz shares drop as much as 9.5% after being given a new underweight rating from Morgan Stanley, while SBM Offshore gains as much as 2.3% after being initiated at overweight.
• Dunelm drops as much as 6.3%, the most in almost three months, as RBC downgrades to sector perform and says the homeware retailer’s qualities now seem reflected in the stock.

In FX, the dollar dropped 0.3%, pushing the currency to fresh two-year lows. New Zealand, Australian dollars led G10 gains; NZD/USD rose 0.8% to 0.6063, AUD/USD rose 0.6% to 0.6532; Australian financial market was closed on holiday. GBP/USD rose 0.3% to 1.3572, EUR/USD rose 0.3% to 1.1426. USD/JPY fell 0.5% to 144.07 before recouping losses to rise back to 144.50.

In rates, treasury yields are slightly lower across the curve, unwinding a small portion of Friday’s steep losses caused by May jobs report, ahead of the sale of 3-, 10- and 30-year Treasuries later this week. US front-end yields are richer by about 2bp, outperforming longer maturities and steepening 5s30s curve by about 1bp; 10-year around 4.49% is about 1bp lower on the day, German counterpart about 2bp lower. Italian government bonds are leading gains in European debt, with Italian 10-year borrowing costs falling 6 bps and further narrowing the spread with Germany to around 92 bps. Treasury auctions include $58 billion 3-year new issue Tuesday and $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings Wednesday and Thursday. This week’s focal points include May CPI data on Wednesday and Treasury auction cycle starting Tuesday. Fed officials are in an external communications blackout ahead of the June 18 policy announcement. 

In commodities, spot gold rises $8 to around $3,318/oz, while platinum breaks out to multi-year highs. Oil prices are steady with WTI near $64.60 a barrel.

Looking at today's calendar, we have April wholesale inventories (10am) and May NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations (11am). Also ahead this week are May CPI. PPI and the grotesquely laughable University of Michigan sentiment (of democrats).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini little changed
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini +0.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX -0.5%, CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.48%
• VIX +0.8 points at 17.61
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.3% at 1207.96
• euro +0.4% at $1.1437
• WTI crude little changed at $64.64/barrel

Top Overnight News

• The US and China will resume trade talks today in London, with tariffs, rare-earth minerals and advanced technology at the top of the agenda. Each country has accused the other of reneging on a deal made in Geneva in May. BBG
• US President Trump thinks support has solidified for the tax bill over the last 24 hours and will take a look at Elon Musk’s government contracts, while he has no plans to speak to Musk and noted that DOGE helped a lot. Trump stated he is thinking about the next Fed Chair and it is coming out very soon, as well as suggested a good Fed Chair would lower rates.
• Trump warned Elon Musk of serious consequences if he backs Democrats who oppose the Republican tax bill. The president told NBC he’s “very confident” the bill will pass by July 4. BBG
• US Defense Secretary Hegseth said active-duty troops will be mobilised if violence continues in Los Angeles, while President Trump deployed the National Guard to LA immigration ‘riots’ after claiming state officials cannot do their jobs, according to Sky News. Furthermore, reports noted that as many as 500 Marines are “in a prepared-to-deploy status” should they be needed to protect federal property and personnel and US President Trump posted on Truth Social "Looking really bad in L.A. BRING IN THE TROOPS!!!"
• China’s trade numbers for May fall a bit short, including exports +4.8% (vs. the Street +6%) and imports -3.4% (vs. the Street -0.8%), w/exports to the US slumping by the most since the start of COVID. FT
• China's producer deflation deepened to its worst level in almost two years in May while consumer prices extended declines, as the economy grappled with trade tensions and a prolonged housing downturn. PPI (-3.3% vs. the Street -3.2% and vs. -2.7% in Apr) and CPI (-0.1% vs. the Street -0.2% and vs. -0.1% in Apr). RTRS
• Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates, two sources with direct knowledge of the plan said on Monday, underscoring its focus on reining in any abrupt rise in bond yields. The move would come on top of an expected government plan to trim issuance of super-long bonds -- such as those with 20-, 30- or 40-year maturities -- in the wake of sharp rises in their yields. RTRS
• A US trade team currently in India for trade discussions has extended its stay, a sign talks are progressing ahead of a July deadline. BBG
• Iran will send a counteroffer “in the coming days” via Oman in response to a US proposal on Tehran’s nuclear program, a Foreign Ministry spokesman said. BBG
• Canadian PM Carney is to announce Canada's national defence spending will meet the 2% of GDP NATO goal: Globe & Mail.
• US state and local governments are selling municipal bonds at a record pace on fears that Congress could partially pay for President Trump’s “big beautiful bill” by cutting a tax break for airports, hospitals, and affordable housing projects. FT
• Apple’s WWDC gets underway today, with a focus on new software interfaces for the iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple TV and Watch. But only minor AI changes are expected, offering little to investors worried it’s lagging behind in that space. BBG
• Citi expects the Fed to deliver 75bps of rate cuts this year, 25bps in September, October and December, comes after Friday's NFP data; expects Fed to deliver 50bps in 2026, via 25bps in Jan and March.
• Fed’s Musalem (voter) said he sees a 50-50 chance that Trump tariffs could either boost inflation for a quarter or two, or cause sustained inflation, according to an FT interview. Musalem said this means the Fed will likely face uncertainty right through the summer and political interference could make it harder for the Fed to lower interest rates.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly higher following last Friday's gains on Wall St, but with trade somewhat quietened amid the holiday closure in Australia and as participants digested mixed Chinese data. Nikkei 225 reclaimed the 38,000 level after last week's currency weakness and with upward revisions to Japanese GDP data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained amid some trade-related optimism with officials from the US and China set to meet in London today, although the gains in the mainland are capped as participants also digested key data releases which showed a continued deflation and mostly softer trade data.

Top Asian News

• BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida said central banks are shrinking their balance sheet but many of them are unlikely to return to conventional monetary adjustment methods, while he added that many central banks are likely to use interest payment on reserves to guide short-term interest rates while maintaining the balance sheet size that meets market demand.
• China sold 1.96mln passenger cars in May, +13.9% Y/Y, according to China's auto industry body CPCA.
• China to raise minimum wage standard and expand coverage of social insurance, via Xinhua.

European bourses (STOXX600 -0.1%) are broadly modestly lower across the board and with price action fairly muted, given parts of Europe are off today on account of Whit Monday. European sectors mixed and with the breadth of the market exceptionally narrow, given the holiday-thinned conditions for some parts of Europe. Real Estate leads given the relatively lower yield environment in Europe; Travel & Leisure follows closely behind.

Top European News

• NATO Secretary General Rutte will reportedly call for a 400% increase in air and missile defence in his London speech.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is to announce a transformative GBP 86bln in the Spending Review to turbo-charge the fastest growing sectors, from tech and life sciences to advanced manufacturing and defence, as part of the government’s plan to invest in Britain’s renewal through the Modern Industrial Strategy.
• BoE’s Greene said the disinflation process is ongoing and expects inflation to continue to come down to the target over the medium-term, while she noted their view is they can look through it but added there is a pretty big risk.
• ECB's Kazimir says he thinks the bank is nearly done with, if not already at the end of the easing cycle; sees clear downside risks to growth but would be a mistake to ignore upside inflation risks. Need to keep all options open. Data over the summer will indicate whether additional fine-tuning is required.
• ECB President Lagarde reiterated that the central bank is in a good position on rates and to deal with uncertainties ahead.
• ECB’s Escriva said the path of monetary policy easing in the eurozone could require further adjustments if the current macroeconomic and inflation outlooks are confirmed, while he added the central scenario of GDP growth around 1% and inflation of 2% could require some fine-tuning, according to Reuters.
• ECB’s Nagel said the ECB can take its time on interest rates with monetary policy now set at a neutral level that is no longer restrictive and that the central bank has maximum flexibility on rates.
• ECB’s Schnabel said do not expect a sustained decoupling between the ECB and the Fed, while she expects the trade conflict to play out as a global shock that’s working through both lower demand and supply.
• ECB’s Vujcic said a small deviation on either side of the 2% inflation target is not a problem and the central bank should not overreact to inflation edging below the target, while he added the bar for QE will be higher in light of past experience.
• EU was urged to exempt more companies from supply chain law although rules on curbing environmental and rights abuses should not be scrapped, according to Swedish conservative MEP Warborn cited by FT.
• Fitch cut Austria’s sovereign rating from AA+ to AA; Outlook Stable, while it affirmed Hungary at BBB: Outlook Stable, while S&P raised Slovenia’s rating from AA- to AA; Outlook Stable.

FX

• DXY has kicked the week off on the backfoot after being boosted on Friday post-NFP. Focus at the start of the week has been on the trade front ahead of an anticipated meeting between US-China officials in London to discuss the trade situation; note, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman avoided a question on the matter at a briefing today. Elsewhere, whilst the Fed is in its blackout period, US President Trump has teased over a potential imminent decision on who will replace Fed Chair Powell when his term expires next year. DXY has delved as low as 98.81 but is holding above Friday's trough at 98.65.
• EUR/USD has moved back onto a 1.14 handle following last Friday's NFP-induced selling. Fresh macro drivers for the Eurozone are lacking following the hawkish reaction to last week's ECB policy announcement. We have seen further commentary from Bank officials over the weekend with Nagel noting that the central bank has maximum flexibility on rates, whilst Schnabel stated we should not expect a sustained decoupling between the ECB and the Fed. EUR/USD has ventured as high as 1.1429 but is yet to approach Friday's 1.1457 peak.
• JPY is firmer vs. the USD and towards the top of the G10 leaderboard after suffering in the wake of last Friday's US jobs report. Newsflow out of Japan has been on the light side aside from an upwards revision to Q1 GDP and Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa continuing to urge the US again to reconsider tariff measures, whilst suggesting that further progress has been made in trade talks with the US. USD/JPY has crossed back below its 50DMA at 144.43 and is currently holding above the 144 mark.
• As is the case across G10 FX, GBP is firmer vs. the USD in a reversal of the price action seen post-NFP on Friday. Over the weekend, BoE's Greene remarked that the disinflation process is ongoing and expects inflation to continue to come down to the target over the medium-term. Cable remains on a 1.35 handle but sub-Friday's 1.3585 peak.
• Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD and towards the top of the G10 leaderboard. Newsflow for Australia and New Zealand has been light over the weekend, with the former away from market. Of note for both however, was the latest round of Chinese trade which saw both imports and exports fall short of expectations on account of the trade war.

Fixed Income

• US paper is attempting to atone for Friday's losses which were brought about by the firmer-than-expected US jobs report, which avoided the soft outcome that some in the market had been positioning for. Quiet schedule today, but focus will be on the US-China meeting in London today; time still not disclosed. Sep'25 UST contract has been as high as 110.05+ but is some way off Friday's peak at 110.29+.
• Bunds have very much started the week off on the front foot and are leading global fixed income markets higher. From a fundamental perspective, fresh macro drivers for the Eurozone are lacking following the hawkish reaction to last week's ECB policy announcement. We have seen further commentary from Bank officials over the weekend with Nagel noting that the central bank has maximum flexibility on rates, whilst Schnabel stated we should not expect a sustained decoupling between the ECB and the Fed. Sep'25 Bunds have eclipsed Friday's best at 130.77 with focus on a test of 131.00.
• Gilts are higher, being dragged up by the moves in German paper with fresh UK drivers lacking. Over the weekend, BoE's Greene remarked that the disinflation process is ongoing and expects inflation to continue to come down to the target over the medium-term. UK docket today is light, more focus on Wednesday's UK spending review. Sep'25 Gilts have moved back onto a 92 handle but thus far are respecting Friday's peak at 92.36.
• Japanese government is considering buying back some super-long JGBs issued in the past, according to Reuters sources.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks are flat, with price action fairly muted in catalyst thin trade thus far. Some modest upticks on commentary out of Iran, which noted that Tehran will be proposing a counter offer to the US nuclear proposal by tomorrow (Tuesday). WTI and Brent reside within tight USD 64.20-64.86 and 66.07-66.69/bbl ranges respectively, and currently rest within the middle of these bounds.
• Spot gold is firmer, and benefitting from the softer dollar (DXY -0.3%), and subdued risk environment. The yellow-metal saw fleeting support on the aforementioned news from Iran, which pushed the metal towards session highs of USD 3,328/oz, before it faced resistance at this level.
• Copper is on the front foot, shrugging off mixed Chinese data, which showed Y/Y CPI remaining in deflationary territory. Elsewhere, LME data showed copper stocks fell 10k. The industrial metal was choppy on this update, though ultimately rose after ten minutes. 3M LME copper trades within a range of USD 9,670.75-9,738.1/t.
• Venezuela is planning to increase gasoline prices by 50% as it braces for a decline in oil revenue following the suspension of operations by Chevron (CVX) and other foreign energy firms, according to Bloomberg citing people familiar with the decision.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Iran will reportedly propose a counter offer to the US nuclear proposal soon, according to state TV; will be sent by tomorrow.
• Israel’s military said it struck a Hamas member in southern Syria.
• US-based Gaza Humanitarian Foundation said it did not distribute aid on Saturday because Hamas made direct threats against its operations, while a Hamas official said he had no knowledge of alleged threats to the US-backed aid group in Gaza. Furthermore, Al Jazeera reported that Israeli attacks killed more than 40 in Gaza as aid seekers were shot dead.
• Israeli Defence Minister Katz threatened to “take all necessary measures” to prevent a humanitarian ship carrying climate campaigner Greta Thunberg from reaching Gaza, according to The Guardian. It was later reported that the Freedom Flotilla Coalition said it ship was 'under assault' and the Israeli Army had boarded the Gaza-bound ship.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Russian forces captured Zoria in Ukraine’s Donetsk region and reached the Dnipropetrovsk region in Ukraine, according to TASS and Interfax. However, it was later reported that Ukrainian General Staff spokesman Kovalev denied claims by the Russian Defence Ministry that its forces advanced into Ukraine’s eastern Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time since it launched its full-scale invasion.
• Head of the Russian delegation at talks with Ukraine in Istanbul said Russia handed over to Ukraine the first list of 640 POWs for exchange, according to TASS. Furthermore, the Russian Defence Ministry said Russia launched a large-scale humanitarian operation to repatriate more than 6,000 bodies of deceased Ukrainian military personnel and exchange prisoners of war, while Ukrainian officials rejected Russian claims that Ukraine was delaying the exchange of soldiers’ bodies.
• Ukrainian drone attack sparked a short-lived fire at the Azot chemical plant in Russia’s Tula region, although there was no threat to air quality near the plant, according to the regional governor.
• US believes Russian retaliation for Ukraine’s drone attack is not over yet and it expects a multi-pronged strike.
• Poland scrambled aircraft to ensure airspace security after Russia launches strikes on Ukraine.

Geopolitics: Other

• US expressed concern to the UK government about allowing China to build a large embassy in London that security officials believe would pose a risk to sensitive communications infrastructure serving the City, according to FT. It was also reported that the UK government promised to assess any security concerns related to the construction of a Chinese embassy near the City of London, which is an issue that could potentially complicate trade talks with the US, according to Bloomberg.
• Thai army said provocations by Cambodia and buildup of military forces show a clear intent to use force, and the Thai army is to control the opening and closing of all border checkpoints along the Thailand-Cambodia border, while it added that Cambodia enforced its military presence, equipment and constructed fortifications.

US Event Calendar

• 10:00 am: Apr F Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0%, prior 0%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

This morning we've just published our latest annual default study, a document I first published in 1999. Over the years, it has evolved into a framework for presenting our structural, multi-year view on the default outlook. For over a decade until 2022, that structural view held that—aside from cyclical spikes—we were living in an ultra-low default environment. This was driven by factors such as low nominal and real yields, aggressive monetary intervention (e.g., QE), and a persistent global savings glut.

However, our 2022 edition marked a turning point. We argued that the ultra-low default world was ending, as inflation and term premia were pushing nominal and real yields structurally higher. While we haven’t yet seen a cyclical spike in defaults—largely due to the avoidance of a US recession—there are clear signs that higher-for-longer funding costs, especially in the U.S., are taking a toll. Leveraged loan issuer-weighted default rates are not far off COVID-era levels, and issuer-weighted defaults in the B and CCC rating buckets are now running above their post-2004 averages, even after two years of solid economic growth. In short, regardless of the cyclical backdrop, we believe the ultra-low default era that characterised much of this study’s first 25 years is now behind us.

After leading this report since its inception, I’ve handed the reins to Steve Caprio and his team, who have compiled this year’s edition. While the authorship has changed, the structural conclusions remain consistent. Marrying these with a cyclical view, Steve’s team projects that US spec-grade default rates should decline modestly from 4.7% today to 4.4% by year-end 2025, before rising again to an above consensus 4.8% by Q2 2026—with potential upside risk toward 5–5.5%. While Europe’s outlook is more benign, the region will not be immune to the structural shift underway. See the full report here including all the usual charts and tables showing how credit spreads compare to that required to compensate for default risk.

The highlight this week will be US CPI on Wednesday and a resumption of trade talks between the US and China today in London. Bessent, Lutnick and Greer are set to meet Chinese representatives at the meeting today. So it's all the big guns from the US administration. The monthly 30-yr UST auction on Thursday will also be a heavy focus with all the attention on the long-end in recent weeks. There's a 10yr auction the day before as well. So a good test of demand as the fiscal bill meanders its way through Congress. Before we preview the CPI release the other main highlights this week are the NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations today; US NFIB small business optimism, UK employment data and Danish and Norwegian CPI tomorrow; that CPI, the 10yr UST auction and the UK Spending Review on Wednesday; US PPI, US jobless claims, UK monthly GDP, the 30yr UST auction and my birthday on Thursday; and the UoM consumer sentiment (including inflation expectations) on Friday. A fuller day-by-day diary of events is at the end as usual.

With regards to US CPI, our US economists expect weak seasonally adjusted gas prices to again keep the headline rate (+0.20% forecast vs. +0.22% previous) gain below that of core (+0.31% vs. +0.24%). This should help the YoY rate for both headline and core to rise two-tenths to 2.5% and 3.0%, respectively. Shorter-term trends for core would be mixed with the three-month annualised rate rising by three-tenths to 2.4% while the six-month rate would remain steady at 3.0%. Our economists do expect tariffs to begin to impact core goods prices, especially in categories like household furnishings and supplies where we saw potential preliminary tariff impacts in the April data. On the services side, our economists will be most attuned to the volatile categories like lodging away and airline fares that have been a meaningful drag of late. For PPI the following day, our economists expect a +0.27% increase in May which would reduce the YoY rate by a couple of tenths. As ever, how the subcomponents that feed into core PCE come out will be the most interesting part of the release. Note that the Fed are now on media blackout ahead of next Wednesday's (18th) FOMC.

It's not clear that the Fed will have learnt too much more than they already knew from Friday's payrolls data. May headline (+139k vs. 147k) and private (140k vs. 146k) payrolls were slightly above the 126k consensus but -95k of net revisions to the two previous months softened the beat. Our economists point out that we now have very stable private sector hiring trends over the past three (133k), six (146k) and twelve (122k) months. However they also point out the narrow breadth in job growth as health care / social assistance (+78k) and leisure / hospitality (+48k) continued to drive the majority of private sector job gains in May and have accounted for 75% of private job growth over the past twelve months. See our economists US employment chart book here that came out after the report on Friday for much more. Staying on employment there will be increased attention on claims this week given the recent tick up. It's not clear whether its seasonals or evidence that there is some real time slipping in employment trends.

Asian equity markets are building on Friday’s gains on Wall Street driven by optimism surrounding high-level trade discussions between China and the United States scheduled for later today. The lack of major weakness in payrolls is also helping. Across the region, the KOSPI (+1.51%) is outpacing its regional peers, extending last week’s rally after the Liberal Party won the presidential election. The Nikkei (+1.05%) is also strong after a positive revision in Q1 GDP data. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+1.02%) is also trading noticeably higher, driven by gains in technology shares, particularly following Meta's weekend announcement of plans to invest $10 billion in startup Scale AI, which focuses on data labeling to support the expansion of AI models as part of its broader AI development strategy. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are more subdued after soft inflation data (more below), with the CSI (+0.22%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.23%) both underperforming. S&P 500 (-0.22%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.25%) futures are reversing some of Friday's gains though.

Coming back to China, consumer prices have decreased for the fourth consecutive month in May, registering a decline of -0.1% y/y (compared to an expected -0.2% and -0.1% in April). This trend might suggest that Beijing's stimulus measures have not yet been sufficient to enhance domestic consumption amid ongoing trade tensions. Furthermore, deflationary pressures are intensifying on some measures as the PPI fell by -3.3% year-on-year in May, surpassing the expected -3.2% and marking the most significant drop in nearly two years, exceeding April’s decline of -2.7%.

Interestingly Chinese exports to the US fell -34.4% in May whilst rising 11% to the RoW, showing that exports didn't recover that well to the US after the trade truce and also that China are finding other avenues to export goods.
In FX, the Japanese yen (+0.25%) is strengthening, trading at 144.49 against the dollar, recovering after two days of losses in response to an upward revision of Japan's Q1 GDP figures. 30yr JGBs are +4bps higher.

Recapping last week now and the risk-on move continued as the news of further US-China talks and a decent US jobs report boosted investor optimism. So that helped to outweigh the weak data from earlier in the week, and meant the S&P 500 rose +1.50% (+1.03% Friday), whilst Europe’s STOXX 600 was up +0.91% (+0.32% Friday). In fact, the Friday move took the S&P into technical bull market territory, having now gained +20.42% since its closing low on April 8. The jobs report contrasted with the ADP report on Wednesday, which hit a two-year low, as well as the contractionary ISM services print. And even though nonfarm payrolls saw downward revisions of -95k to the previous two months, those were mostly in March, before Liberation Day occurred.

The jobs report meant investors priced out the likelihood of Fed rate cuts this year, with just 44bps now priced in by December, down -10.6bps on the week (-9.4bps Friday). That’s the fewest cuts priced since February (we'd priced 60bps immediately after the weak claims data the day before), and it triggered a significant flattening in the US Treasury curve. For instance, the 2yr Treasury yield was up +13.9bps (+11.6bps Friday) to 4.04%, whilst the 30yr yield was only up +3.7bps (+9.0bps Friday) to 4.97%. The 10-year Treasury yield also rose +10.5bps (+11.5bps Friday) to 4.51%. Similar movements were echoed in Europe, as the 10-year Bund yield ended the week up +7.4bps (-0.6bps) at 2.57%. That also came as ECB President Lagarde indicated on Thursday that they were approaching the end of their easing cycle.

Elsewhere, oil prices performed strongly last week, as OPEC+ announced a production increase of 411,000 barrels per day, which was less than some had expected. This led to a rally in crude oil, with WTI posting its biggest weekly gain of 2025, up +6.23% (+1.91% Friday) to $64.58/bbl, whilst Brent crude was up +4.02% (+1.73% Friday) to $66.47/bbl.

Meanwhile, US credit spreads ended the week tighter, with IG tightening -3bps (-3bps Friday) to 85bps, its tightest in 3 months. And HY spreads tightened -15bps (-9bps Friday) to 300bps. European sovereign bond spreads also tightened, with the 10yr Italian-German spread down -5.4bps (-1.8bps Friday) to just 93bps, the tightest since February 2021.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 08:16

US, China Gear Up For High-Stakes Meeting In London

U.S. and Chinese delegations have arrived in the U.K. for talks aimed at patching up a fraying truce in an ongoing trade war between the world's two biggest economies. The US team leby The U.S. team led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are due to meet with a Chinese delegation led by Vice Premier He Lifeng in London in a renewed effort to break the deadlock after last month’s Geneva talks failed to produce meaningful results.

The high-stakes meeting follows President Donald Trump’s call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on June 5, after which Trump announced that the dispute over China’s rare earth export restrictions—a key obstacle in trade talks—had been resolved.

“There should no longer be any questions respecting the complexity of Rare Earth products,” Trump said on Truth Social following the call. “Our respective teams will be meeting shortly at a location to be determined.”

The hour-and-a-half-long conversation came after Trump publicly expressed frustration over Beijing’s negotiating tactics, calling Xi “very tough” and “extremely hard to make a deal with” in a Truth Social post the day before.

As Emel Akan reports for The Epoch Times, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, the U.S. trade officials will press their Chinese counterparts to fully comply with the terms of the May 12 trade agreement reached in Geneva, which included reciprocal tariff reductions. Under the deal, both countries agreed to reduce tariffs by 115 percent while maintaining an additional 10 percent levy.

“The administration has been monitoring China’s compliance with the deal, and we hope that this will move forward to have more comprehensive trade talks,” Leavitt told Fox News on June 8.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will lead the American delegation in London.

Rare Earths Still in Focus

Despite Trump’s declaration that the rare earths dispute has been resolved, his officials remain cautious.

According to National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, while rare earth exports have resumed, they are still below the levels previously agreed upon.

“Those exports of critical minerals have been getting released at a rate that is higher than it was but not as high as we believe we agreed to in Geneva,” he told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on June 8.

“We want the rare earths, the magnets that are crucial for cell phones and everything else, to flow just as they did before the week of April, and we don’t want any technical details to slow that down, and that’s clear to them.”

In response to Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, Beijing introduced export restrictions on critical rare earth elements, metals, and magnets effective April 4. Beijing has tightened export controls on seven rare earth elements—samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium—straining supply chains critical to America’s defense, aerospace, and automotive sectors.

The latest restrictions follow a December 2024 export ban on three key minerals—antimony, gallium, and germanium—imposed in retaliation for former President Joe Biden’s technology curbs targeting the Chinese communist regime.

China dominates global rare earths supply chains, accounting for nearly 60 percent of worldwide production and almost 85 percent of processing capacity. The Chinese regime has turned that dominance into a strategic weapon against other countries in recent years.

While the terms of the deal are still being worked out, Hassett expressed optimism about the London meeting.

“I’m very comfortable that this deal is about to be closed,” he said.

Deeper trade issues continue to loom over the talks.

China’s Longstanding Trade Violations

In May, the U.S. Commerce Department issued a new rule banning the use of Huawei Technologies’ Ascend computer chips worldwide, arguing they were developed in violation of American export controls.

The move drew backlash from Beijing, which urged the U.S. government to undo the action.

The recent dispute reflected broader U.S. concerns over Beijing’s long-standing abusive trade practices that disadvantage American businesses and workers.

Communist China’s rise since joining the World Trade Organization in 2001 has been mainly fueled by such controversial trade policies, which include stealing intellectual property, attacking foreign firms operating in the country, manipulating its currency, and massively subsidizing domestic companies.

Some China hawks in Washington believe that Beijing is determined to maintain these mercantilist trade practices.

Even if Beijing comes to the negotiation table, it’s unwilling to bargain on these core problems that the United States wants resolved, according to Robert Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, a science and technology think tank.

“They’ve never been willing to even acknowledge that these are problems,” he told The Epoch Times in an April interview.

It remains unclear to what extent Beijing’s unfair trade practices will be addressed or resolved during the London talks.

Beijing initially denied having violated the Geneva trade agreement on May 30. The regime escalated its rhetoric on June 2, when a spokesperson for the Chinese Commerce Ministry issued a statement through state media attacking Washington’s decision to revoke visas for Chinese students with ties to the Chinese Communist Party.

“The United States and China have strategic interests in one another’s markets, and the President is always going to put American workers and industries first,” Leavitt said during the Fox News interview. “And the talks in Geneva really set the table for that, but we need China to comply with their side of the deal. And so that’s what the trade team will be discussing tomorrow.”

The U.S. team will issue a readout after the meeting, she said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 07:45

US Electric Vehicle Adoption Plummets

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• EV interest among U.S. drivers has dropped to 16%, the lowest since 2019.

• Key deterrents include high upfront costs, limited charging infrastructure, and concerns over long-distance suitability.

• Hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles are gaining favor as more practical alternatives.

Just 16% of American drivers say they are likely to buy an electric vehicle (EV) as their next car—the lowest share recorded in AAA’s annual surveys since 2019.

High battery maintenance costs, high purchase prices, and concerns about range continue to be major deterrents for U.S. consumers to consider buying an EV, according to AAA’s latest survey released earlier this month.

These key barriers have remained more or less the same in recent years.

But this year three other factors have also played a role to result in the smallest share of American drivers considering an EV purchase—lower gasoline prices, the increasingly uncertain future of EV incentives such as tax credits and rebates, and politics.

Only 16% of U.S. adults reported in AAA’s 2025 survey that they are “very likely” or “likely” to purchase a fully EV as their next car. This compares to 25% in 2022, when gasoline prices of $5 per gallon incentivized more buyers to consider an EV purchase.

This year, the percentage of consumers indicating they would be “unlikely” or “very unlikely” to purchase an EV rose to 63%, up from 51% last year.

“While the automotive industry is committed to long-term electrification and providing a diverse range of models, underlying consumer hesitation remains,” said Greg Brannon, director of automotive engineering for AAA.

Consumers cited high battery repair costs and purchase prices as key barriers to go fully electric, at 62% and 59%, respectively. Other top concerns identified in this year’s survey were the perceived unsuitability of EVs for long-distance travel (57%), a lack of convenient public charging stations (56%), and fear of running out of charge while driving (55%).

Other barriers cited by the Americans unlikely to buy an EV include safety concerns cited by 31%, challenges installing charging stations at their residences for 27%, and 12% who are concerned that the tax credits and rebates will be reduced or eliminated.

Saving on gasoline costs is a key reason for interest in EVs this year—77% of Americans likely to buy an EV cited gas savings as their top motivation to purchase.

The reason, of course, is quite simple. Gasoline prices this spring hit their lowest level ahead of Memorial Day weekend in four years. A large part of the strong demand over Memorial Day weekend was due to the fact that the typical seasonal spike in the spring didn’t materialize, because oil prices – the single-biggest driver of gasoline prices—have lingered in the low $60s per barrel for weeks.

Uncertainty about incentives for EV purchases has started to play a larger role in drivers’ hesitancy to consider fully-electric vehicle purchases. Interest in EVs to take advantage of tax credits and rebates has plummeted—from 60% of those saying last year they are likely to buy an EV to 39% this year, per the AAA survey.

Moreover, fewer Americans now believe that most passenger cars would be EVs within a decade. The share of U.S. drivers who believe that most cars will be electric within the next ten years has plunged from 40% in 2022 to 23% this year.

Despite the fact that the availability of EV models in the U.S. market has soared in recent years, with many legacy carmakers seeking to compete with Tesla, Americans remain hesitant about purchasing electric cars.

Public perception about the future of EVs remains uncertain, AAA says, despite the more than 75 EV models introduced in the past four years.

For many drivers, hybrid or plug-in hybrid vehicles could be more appealing than full battery EVs as they combine the advantages of traditional internal combustion engines with electric power, reducing range anxiety while providing an environmentally friendly alternative, AAA says. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 06:30

US Manufacturing By State: Who Gains Most From 'Made In America'?

President Trump has championed the idea that a key part of making America great again is bringing back industries that left the country in recent decades. With his tariff-driven trade policy, the White House has promoted “Made in America” as a way to create jobs and boost the economy.

Based on April 2025 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this map, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, highlights the U.S. states leading and lagging in manufacturing employment.

California Leads in Manufacturing

Manufacturing remains geographically diverse across the U.S., with major hubs on both coasts and in the interior.

In terms of absolute numbers, California leads the nation, with 1.22 million manufacturing jobs. Texas follows with 970,600 jobs, while Ohio and Michigan maintain their traditional industrial strength with 687,500 and 597,600 jobs, respectively.

State Manufacturing Jobs Jobs per 100k California 1,222.9K 3094.0 Texas 970.6K 3101.9 Ohio 687.5K 5785.4 Michigan 597.6K 5893.2 Illinois 574.7K 4521.6 Pennsylvania 561.5K 4293.2 Indiana 523.3K 7557.5 Wisconsin 462.8K 7763.8 North Carolina 459.3K 4158.1 Florida 434.6K 1859.5 Georgia 426.5K 3814.5 New York 412.0K 2073.8 Tennessee 364.3K 5040.3 Minnesota 323.5K 5584.2 Alabama 287.5K 5574.2 Missouri 283.9K 4545.7 Washington 274.2K 3445.5 South Carolina 263.0K 4800.3 Kentucky 260.6K 5679.6 New Jersey 255.4K 2688.2 Virginia 243.5K 2763.5 Massachusetts 229.8K 3220.2 Iowa 217.2K 6700.6 Arizona 193.8K 2555.9 Oregon 181.7K 4252.9 Kansas 173.0K 5823.7 Arkansas 165.0K 5342.7 Utah 155.3K 4432.6 Connecticut 154.2K 4195.8 Colorado 150.1K 2519.5 Louisiana 143.8K 3127.6 Mississippi 140.8K 4784.2 Oklahoma 139.5K 3406.3 Maryland 110.4K 1762.7 Nebraska 103.3K 5150.9 Idaho 77.4K 3866.9 New Hampshire 68.2K 4840.2 Nevada 67.7K 2071.9 Maine 51.7K 3679.7 West Virginia 46.7K 2638.4 South Dakota 44.3K 4790.9 Rhode Island 40.1K 3605.1 New Mexico 29.5K 1384.8 North Dakota 27.9K 3502.5 Vermont 27.2K 4194.3 Delaware 26.7K 2538.2 Montana 20.8K 1829.0 Hawaii 13.1K 905.9 Alaska 11.9K 1607.8 Wyoming 10.6K 1803.9 District of Columbia 1.2K 170.9

Several Southern states have also built strong manufacturing bases. North Carolina (459,300), Georgia (426,500), and Tennessee (364,300) each rank among the top states, supported by industries such as automotive, aerospace, and food processing.

Wisconsin, ranked in the top 10 for total manufacturing employment, stands out for outperforming its size. Although it’s only the 20th most populous state, its manufacturing base remains strong, thanks in part to food and dairy processing. In per capita terms, it’s number one in the nation with 7,763.8 manufacturing jobs for every 100,000 people.

Florida, another top 10 state, has emerged as a growth story. Between 2019 and 2023, the state’s manufacturing employment grew by nearly 10%, highlighting the sector’s expansion in one of the country’s largest economies.

At the other end of the spectrum, Wyoming (10,600 jobs), Alaska (11,900), and Washington, D.C. (1,200) recorded the lowest levels of manufacturing employment. The latter (D.C.) also has the lowest numbers per capita.

To learn more about Trump’s impact in his first 100 days, check out this graphic that compares S&P 500 returns during post-WWII presidents’ first 100 days.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 05:45