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US Gas Prices Slip Below Politically Sensitive $4 Level For First Time In Months

US Gas Prices Slip Below Politically Sensitive $4 Level For First Time In Months

Summary:

  • GasBuddy's U.S. Gas National Avg. Falls Below $4 per gallon 
  • AAA's U.S. Gas National Avg. still slightly Above $4 per gallon (expected to fall) 
  • US-Iran Peace Deal Sends Brent and WTI Tumbling 

Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, wrote on X that the national average price of gasoline has finally slipped below the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level for the first time in many months.

Per De Haan:

The nation's average price of gasoline has fallen 9.3 cents over the last week and stands at $3.99 per gallon, according to GasBuddy data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country.

The national average is down 52.4 cents from a month ago and is 91.1 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel fell 11.7 cents in the last week and stands at $5.182 per gallon.

"Average gasoline prices fell in 47 states over the last week, with the national average dropping below $4 per gallon late Sunday for the first time since mid-April," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.

De Haan continued, "The decline came as oil prices moved sharply lower in reaction to news of a potential deal between the United States and Iran, though it remains to be seen whether the agreement will hold. A handful of price-cycling states saw averages jump before joining the broader downward trend. The real test now shifts to the Strait of Hormuz, where any reopening and resumption of normal oil flows would be the clearest signal that this relief is durable. For now, the national average could continue falling, provided there isn't a drastic reversal and the U.S. and Iran continue moving in a positive direction."

Looking at WTI crude futures and the AAA national average for gasoline, the implied decline suggests gas prices at the pump could tumble toward $3.75 by mid-summer.

Great news ahead of midterm elections. 

Pump Pain Relief? Gas Above $4 May End Soon As U.S.-Iran Peace Deal Sends Oil Lower

The national average for U.S. gasoline prices has hovered above the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level for 76 days, or roughly 2.5 months, as the Gulf energy shock tightened physical markets and forced emergency SPR draws.

But with President Trump declaring late Sunday, just 30 minutes before NY futures opened, that a US-Iran peace deal has been secured, and with WTI and Brent futures tumbling, pressure at the pump could begin to ease in the very near term.

National gasoline prices could slip back below $4 in the coming days or weeks if the crude selloff holds and traders begin pricing in a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Still, normalization of crude energy flows will likely take months, if not longer, to return to pre-war levels.

As of Sunday evening, AAA data show the national average for 87-octane gasoline stands at around $4.074.

Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, wrote on X shortly after Trump announced the peace deal that the national average for gas could fall to $3.75 by July 4.

De Haan wrote:

The U.S. and Iran signaling a deal has been struck. The next few days will be key to see if the agreement sticks, and if traffic begins moving in the Strait. WTI crude down 5%, as more confirmations come in days ahead, national average price of gasoline may continue to fade.

Beyond that, the national average could fall below $3.75/gal by July 4, under a optimistic timeline, but hurricane season could be a major wildcard for the rest of summer- tight global inventories mean it will take months or beyond to fully restore global oil inventories.

The next several weeks will be key- one major slip up could impact greatly prices moving forward. And with so many speedbumps in this situation, it may be foolish to think this problem is now completely over. Time will tell.

Surging gas and diesel prices over the last 2.5 months have added downward pressure on consumers, especially working-class households, who were hit with sticker shock at the pump. This shift in spending patterns is a concerning trend we have meticulously detailed:

The combination of elevated gas prices and fading tax-refund tailwinds had already begun to expose cracks in the consumer economy, particularly among lower- and middle-income households. That likely served as a warning signal for the Trump administration: resolve the Middle East conflict before worsening consumer sentiment and pain at the pump become much larger political liabilities heading into the midterms.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 11:25

Protests In Los Angeles As Iranian Soccer Team Arrives For 1st World Cup Match

Protests In Los Angeles As Iranian Soccer Team Arrives For 1st World Cup Match

Iranian Americans protested against the regime in Tehran as the Iranian soccer team arrived in Los Angeles for their first World Cup match against New Zealand on June 15.

As the team arrived at the Los Angeles Galaxy’s training ground in Carson, a small group of Iranian Americans shouted, “Down with terrorists!”

As Chris Summers reports via The Epoch Times, the protesters were holding the pre-1979 Iranian flag—emblazoned with a lion and a sun—which is widely used by the Iranian opposition, and some of them also held the flags of the United States and Israel.

FIFA has banned the lion-and-sun standard under a rule that forbids the flying of political flags or banners inside stadiums during the World Cup.

The match against New Zealand takes place as Iran and the United States seek to finalize a deal to end the conflict that began on Feb. 28, when U.S. President Donald Trump launched Operation Epic Fury.

Mojgan Ramezani, 56, an Iranian American at a rally outside the stadium in Inglewood, California, which will host the match, said, “They’re holding hostage their own people.”

Pictures of athletes who allegedly died in custody ​after being arrested by the Iranian regime lined a nearby street corner during a rally organized by the local Iranian American community.

One of the protesters, 70-year-old Hassan Haddadi, said he was frustrated that there had been no regime change in Iran.

“We’re hoping to bring awareness to the Western world, to somehow do something beyond just condemning, to bring an end to this regime,” Haddadi said.

Players ‘Not Political People’

The Iranian team’s coach, Amir Ghalenoei, said he and his players were “not political people.”

The Iranian team captain, Mehdi Taremi, said they were at the World Cup to bring joy to all Iranians and the millions in the diaspora.

“People have different opinions, but we are here to unite people, and we will try to bring joy to all Iranians wherever they live,” Taremi said at a press conference on June 14.

“We are here to bring joy to Iranian people. We do not get involved in politics. We are here to play football.”

Last week, the U.S. Department of ‌Homeland Security announced that the Iranian team—who are based in Tijuana, Mexico—would be allowed to arrive in the United States on the day before their matches.

Los Angeles is home to the largest Iranian community outside Iran—it is sometimes dubbed “Tehrangeles”—and there are plans for a rally against the Tehran regime outside the stadium in Inglewood before the match.

People carry a giant Iranian flag during a protest in response to FIFA's ban on Iran's pre-revolutionary flag inside World Cup stadiums in Inglewood, Calif., on June 7, 2026. Benjamin Hanson/AP

During the initial group stage of the World Cup, 12 groups of four teams will each play three matches in a round-robin format for a chance to advance to the later stages of competition.

Iran is in Group G, along with New Zealand, Belgium, and Egypt.

Belgium is ranked 10th in the world by FIFA, while Iran is ranked 20th, above Egypt (29th) and New Zealand (85th).

Iran is the favorite to beat New Zealand, whose team includes Tim Payne, a defender whose Instagram following went from 5,000 to 5.7 million after influencer Valen Scarsini encouraged people to make Payne famous.

All three of Iran’s group stage matches are taking place in the United States.

Iran plays Belgium on June 21, again in Los Angeles, and then travels to Seattle to face Egypt on June ​26.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 11:05

So, What Do We Know?

So, What Do We Know?

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist At Rabobank

A deal is struck and the parties are reportedly set to sign on Friday of this week. Markets are jubilant after an agreement was confirmed by US, Iranian and Pakistani sources, but not without first being threatened by Israeli strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon which prompted a telling-off by Donald Trump on Truth Social where he told everyone “don’t blow it”.

Brent crude is down more than 4% this morning to be dealing around $83.72 at time of writing and a rally in bonds late last week has carried over to this morning with Aussie and Kiwi sovereign curves both seeing notable bull steepening.

US equity futures portend the printing of a healthy green candle when markets open later today, but there’s still a lingering sense that we’re not out of the woods yet. Aside from the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah over the weekend, and the lesson of experience that the IRGC doesn’t need much convincing to return to fighting, we learned this morning that despite Donald Trump’s declaration that the strait is now open the strait will actually remain closed until the official signing occurs on Friday – ostensibly to provide time for mine clearing operations. Needless to say, a week is a long time in Middle East geopolitics.

Nevertheless, markets are rallying on the vibe right now but what is actually in the deal will be the critical points – and there is still plenty of fog of war surrounding terms. So, what do we know?

Firstly, the agreement is not really a ‘deal’ at all, or even a deal to have a deal, but rather a memorandum of understanding staking out a framework to discuss a deal over the next 60 days.

War is supposed to cease on all fronts – including Lebanon, Hormuz is supposed to open and the US blockade lifted within 30 days in a kind of oil-for-oil exchange that we have flagged here many times. Iranian sources are claiming that Hormuz transits will occur under Iranian auspices, whereas the US side is still saying no tolls. Axios reports comments from US sources that sanctions relief will follow the re-opening of Hormuz, but there seems to be disagreement over the release of frozen funds and Iranian sources are claiming reparations of some form up to $300bn in value would be payable. If true, that really would be the full enchilada of TACOs and would see the US agreeing to a set of terms that had it restart bombing only a few weeks ago. On the other hand, it could be the case that the terms are actually much more favorable to the US and that the Iranians are simply trying to save face.

Crucially, there appear to be no guarantees on the nuclear issues aside from a promise from Iran not to seek a nuclear weapon and to engage in talks over the next 60 days. Given that the nuclear program was the entire casus belli in the first place, we still see plenty of scope for this to all fall in a heap. The US midterm elections are 81 days after the expiry of the 60 day negotiating period. Could we see a few more can-kick extensions over that time? Announcing the conclusion of the deal, Donald Trump posted to Truth Social “Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Start your engines indeed, because the race is now on to restock the global energy supply chain while we can.

So, at the risk of being a party pooper, could this be one of those instances of buy the rumor sell the fact? Perhaps there is no greater bear indicator than the fact that the New York Knicks just won the NBA playoffs. The last time they did that was in *checks notes* 1973, just before the Yom Kippur oil embargoes became the biggest energy shock in history up to that point. The Knicks basically top-ticked the market back then with one of the deepest bear markets of modern history (down more than 40% peak to trough) following their victory.

That brings us to SpaceX, where the largest IPO in history just raised $75 billion at a hefty valuation last week and minted another $2trillion market cap company after the stock rallied almost 20% in its first day of trading. His 42% ownership stake combined with other holdings now makes Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, a financial milestone event that feels a bit like the topping out of the Sears Tower as the world’s tallest building in – ahem – 1973.

Personal wealth milestones don’t have as tight a correlation with major market drawdowns as the Skyscraper Curse, but the logic follows a similar pattern: market exuberance causes asset prices to rise, minting a new cohort of billionaires, decabillionaires, centibillionaires or even trillionaires. Then reflexivity kicks in and the popular conception of whether or not it is moral for one person to hold so much wealth leads to policy changes to discourage it. Sentiment then erodes, discounted cash flows get discounted further, and eyewatering valuations start to look more dubious. That’s how we ended up with anti-trust laws in the USA, and how Australia is now seeing capital gains tax rules fiddled with to discourage real estate speculation. A cursory perusal of recent social media posts from prominent Democrats regarding Musk’s personal wealth is instructive in this regard.

That isn’t to say that a correction is imminent. Reversals take time, and a clear catalyst is yet to present itself. Perhaps it lies in the expectations of Fed rate tightening? Or perhaps in the repeated warnings of approaching tank bottom from oil market insiders, and what that might mean for the petrochemical complex, plastics, fertilizers and much of the rest of our hydrocarbon-based 21st century existence as we know it? While there is a sense this morning that a bullet has been dodged and that the “deal” renders the Hormuz black swan a shot duck, to labor the avian metaphor further we really can’t count our chickens until the ships resume transit, factories restore production, and the nuclear issue is settled.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 10:45

Drinking The Court-Packing Kool-Aid: Buttigieg Joins The Calls To Take Over Supreme Court

Drinking The Court-Packing Kool-Aid: Buttigieg Joins The Calls To Take Over Supreme Court

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg apparently got the message this week that he cannot hope to win the Democratic nomination without promising radical measures, including the packing of the Supreme Court. After denouncing the current Court as “rogue” for not ruling as the left has demanded, Buttigieg endorsed the plan of Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren to pack the Court to reverse adverse constitutional interpretations.

For years, the Supreme Court had a liberal majority that overturned dozens of long-standing cases. That was not viewed as the work of a rogue court. Yet, even as President Donald Trump attacks this Court for ruling repeatedly against him, liberals are now demanding court packing. As the party becomes more radicalized, any candidate expressing doubts over radical demands like court packing is unlikely to make it out of the primaries.

Accordingly, “Mayor Pete” is reaching for Court-Packing Kool-Aid.

In making his pitch to the Rainbow PUSH Coalition convention, Buttigieg knew that he had to offer some radical bona fides. He decided to offer up the Supreme Court:

“We have to do [something] with the Supreme Court, that is now a rogue Supreme Court. To see them eviscerate the Voting Rights Act is to see them reverse some of the most important progress this country ever made, wiping out Black political representation, but also wiping out part of what actually is great within the complex American story.”

That description is part of a campaign of disinformation about the Court’s recent decision to end racial gerrymandering. The Court reaffirmed that the Voting Rights Act would be used to prevent any intentional racial discrimination. It banned states (almost entirely Democratic states) from engaging in racial discrimination to guarantee election results based on the race of the candidates.

He then thrilled the crowd by promising to pack the Court to guarantee the results that he and they are demanding. Declaring that it is “time to think big,” Buttigieg explained:

“Nowhere in the Constitution does it say that there have to be nine Supreme Court justices. That one doesn’t even take a constitutional amendment. It just takes a readiness to set up a court that fits this country. We could have 13 seats matching the district structure of the federal judiciary, but also a process that makes it less partisan.”

Buttigieg appears to be referring to the circuit system, not the district court system.

What is most striking is that he promises to reverse decisions on issues like racial gerrymandering by packing the Court, but then says it will make the Court “less partisan.”

The whole point of adding four new justices selected by the Democrats is to create an instant majority to their liking and to reverse past rulings.

Years ago, I wrote an academic piece on the possible expansion of the Supreme Court, but there is a world of difference between that and a court-packing plan. Under my proposal, the court’s expansion would take almost two decades to ensure that no president could pack the court.

Various Democrats have been pledging to not only impeach Trump (and a long list of other figures), but to pack the Supreme Court as soon as they regain power.

James Carville declared, “If the Democrats win the presidency and both houses of Congress, I think on day one, they should expand the Supreme Court to 13. F— it. Eat our dust. Don’t run on it. Don’t talk about it. Just do it.”

This Nike School of Constitutional Law is catching on with a wide array of pundits and professors. Just do it.

Years ago, Harvard professor Michael Klarman laid out a radical agenda to change the system to guarantee Republicans “will never win another election.” However, he warned that “the Supreme Court could strike down everything I just described.” Therefore, the court must be packed in advance to allow these changes to occur.

Former Obama Attorney General Eric Holder has put packing the Supreme Court front and center, explaining, “[We’re] talking about the acquisition and the use of power if there is a Democratic trifecta in 2028.”

At base is a fundamental misunderstanding of the role of the Court. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) not only renewed her previous call to pack the court but said the court was illegitimate for rendering decisions against “widely held public opinion.” Former Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) said the court “defies the will of the people.” Reporter John Haltiwanger insisted that “the court is clearly not representative of the U.S. public. It’s supposed to be the people’s court.”

In reality, the court was never meant to be that. It was meant to be the Constitution’s court, designed to stand against everyone and everything except the Constitution. In a system designed to protect the minority, the court (like the Constitution) is counter-majoritarian in much of what it does.

With the Supreme Court removed as a barrier to the left’s radical agenda, Democrats could indeed fulfill the objectives laid out by figures like Klarman to ensure they never lose power again.

That will make the 2028 election the most consequential election for our constitutional history in decades. The outcome will most immediately decide the fate of an institution that has been a stabilizing force for centuries. Even though this Court has ruled against the Trump Administration on a variety of key issues, the left is still demanding that it either yield to all of their demands or face a hostile takeover.

On our 250th anniversary, these reckless and radical voices remind us that (as Benjamin Franklin warned us) this is our Republic if we can keep it.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the best-selling author of “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 10:25

Key Events This Week: First Warsh FOMC, Iran Deal Signing, Retail Sales And More

Key Events This Week: First Warsh FOMC, Iran Deal Signing, Retail Sales And More

After 107 days and a seemingly endless number of false dawns, we finally have a deal between the US and Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. It was announced on Sunday afternoon - Trump's birthday, shortly before futures opened for trading and ahead of today's Iran game in the World Cup - and the MoU will be signed in Switzerland on Friday.

According to statements carried by Iranian state-affiliated media, the agreement includes a phased lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the unfreezing of roughly $12bn in overseas assets, and a commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days (after mine clearing) alongside the removal of the US naval blockade. The deal also sets out a 60-day negotiation window on a broader accord, including constraints around Iran’s nuclear programme, where Tehran is expected to commit to maintaining its current status and not pursuing nuclear weapons. The US hasn’t been so explicit and whilst the deal is very good news for markets it looks like tough conversations will have occur in the 60-day window to ensure the peace is sustainable. As an example, the Senate needs to approve any extensive sanction relief for Iran. 

The other major story is the decision late on Friday from the US government to issue an export control directive forcing Anthropic to restrict access to its most advanced models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, released to great global acclaim last week, to US nationals only, citing undefined national security concerns. In practice, because it is operationally difficult to separate users by nationality, Anthropic opted to suspend access to these models entirely on a global basis. The move marks one of the first instances of the US applying export controls not just to AI hardware (e.g. semiconductors) but directly to frontier models themselves, reflecting a growing view of AI as a strategic, dual use asset.

Clearly the export control may only be temporary as the cited jailbreak risk is examined and rectified quickly. This is probably the most likely outcome. However, if it longer-term, and more strategic from the US government, it's not great news for US tech firms or for those assuming breakneck speed of AI adoption. US tech firms require a global marketplace to justify their huge investments so far. In addition, global enterprise would want to ensure any models they purchase are usable, especially for business-critical operations. You can't rely on something that could be switched off. So all eyes on what Anthropic and the US government agree as the next step.

Outside of Iran and AI, central banks will dominate the global agenda in the coming week, with key policy decisions across the Fed, BoJ and BoE alongside important inflation and activity data.

The primary focus will be the United States and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which marks the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The leadership transition introduces a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around both policy signalling and communication style. While an immediate policy shift is unlikely, the meeting will be closely scrutinized for early indications of how Warsh intends to reshape the Fed’s framework, particularly given his stated ambition for a broader “regime change”.

In terms of the statement, a modest upgrade to the labor market assessment appears likely, reflecting steady job growth and a broadly stable unemployment rate. More importantly, the guidance language could shift meaningfully. Warsh has been openly critical of heavy reliance on forward guidance, so the Committee may lean towards a more neutral, data-dependent formulation. This would effectively remove any residual easing bias and reopen the possibility of further tightening should inflation dynamics warrant it. Any such adjustment would be interpreted as a recalibration towards optionality rather than a firm directional signal.

Beyond the headline statement, attention will turn to the Summary of Economic Projections. The distribution of rate expectations may shift upwards, with 4 or 5 policymakers signalling the potential for hikes into 2026 and beyond. This would likely nudge the median path higher across the projection horizon and reinforce the idea that the Fed is not yet comfortable declaring victory on inflation. DB's economists note that Warsh may not submit dots which would reflect his views on forward guidance. Revisions to inflation forecasts, particularly for the outer years, will also be closely examined for evidence of more persistent price pressures. At the moment DB  economists expect core PCE for 2027 to be raised by a tenth to 2.3%.

However, the most revealing element of the meeting may be Warsh’s press conference. His prior remarks suggest he will likely place less emphasis on near-term data fluctuations and explicit forward guidance, instead favoring a broader narrative around structural forces such as productivity and technological change. While this could temper the immediate hawkish interpretation, markets may test whether this framing is sufficient to justify patience in the face of still-elevated inflation. Just as important will be any early signals on communication reform—whether through changes to the dot plot, adjustments to the SEP, or a broader rethink of how the Fed conveys uncertainty. So a fascinating meeting to look forward to.

In terms of US data, the focus will be on May retail sales due Wednesday, and our US economists expect a +0.5% MoM rise in the headline (same as in April). Industrial production is due today (DB forecast is a +0.1% MoM increase, down from +0.7% in April) and there will be several housing indicators out this week as well. US markets will be on holiday for the Juneteenth National Independence Day on Friday.

Outside the US, central bank activity remains heavy. In Europe, decisions are due from the Riksbank and a cluster of Thursday meetings including the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank. In the UK, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, with attention focused on the vote split (expectations for 7-2) and any evolution in guidance against a backdrop of still-sticky inflation. Incoming UK data, particularly CPI (Wednesday), labour market indicators (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday), will provide important context for the policy outlook. Meanwhile, euro area attention will also be shaped by ongoing commentary from ECB officials and sentiment indicators such as the German ZEW survey (tomorrow).

Political developments will also be in focus, with the G7 leaders meeting early in the week (today through Wednesday) followed by the European Council summit (Thursday-Friday).

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meeting (tomorrow) stands out, with expectations for a further rate increase as part of its gradual normalization process. Japanese inflation data later in the week (Friday) will help gauge whether underlying price momentum continues to justify policy tightening. In China, their monthly activity data tomorrow covering industrial production and retail sales will provide an updated read on the growth trajectory, with expectations for a modest improvement after recent softness.

Elsewhere in the region, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to remain on hold (tomorrow), while New Zealand’s GDP release (Wednesday) will offer further insight into the strength of its economic recovery.

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day snapshot of key events

Monday June 15

  • Data: US June Empire manufacturing index, NAHB housing market index, May industrial production, manufacturing production, capacity utilisation, Germany May wholesale price index, Italy April trade balance, general government debt, Eurozone April industrial production, trade balance, Canada May housing starts, April manufacturing sales
  • Central banks: ECB’s Lagarde, Cipollone, Nagel, Pereira and Kocher speak
  • Other: G7 leaders’ summit (through June 17)

Tuesday June 16

  • Data: US May housing starts, building permits, import price index, export price index, June New York Fed services business activity, China May retail sales, industrial production, investment, home prices, Germany June Zew survey, Eurozone June Zew survey, Canada May existing home sales, April international securities transactions
  • Central banks: BoJ decision, RBA decision, ECB’s Lane, Sleijpen and Escriva speak
  • Auctions: US 20-yr Bond (reopening, $13bn)

Wednesday June 17

  • Data: US May retail sales, pending home sales, April business inventories, UK May CPI, RPI, PPI, April house price index, Japan May trade balance, April core machine orders, New Zealand Q1 GDP
  • Central banks: Fed decision, Riksbank decision, ECB’s Sleijpen speaks

Thursday June 18

  • Data: US June Philadelphia Fed business outlook, May leading index, April total net TIC flows, initial jobless claims, UK April average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, May jobless claims change, Italy April current account balance, ECB April current account, Eurozone April construction output, Canada May industrial product price index, raw materials price index
  • Central banks: BoE decision, SNB decision, Norges Bank decision, ECB’s Kocher, Nagel, Cipollone, Lane and Escriva speak
  • Auctions: US 5-yr TIPS (reopening, $24bn)
  • Other: European Council summit (through June 19)

Friday June 19

  • Data: UK June GfK consumer confidence, May retail sales, public finances, Japan May national CPI, Germany May PPI, Canada April retail sales
  • Central banks: ECB’s Lane, Escriva and Cipollone speak, BoJ minutes of the April meeting
  • Other: US Juneteenth holiday

* * *

Looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the import prices report on Tuesday and the retail sales report on Wednesday. The June FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chairman Warsh’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, June 15 

  • 08:30 AM Empire State manufacturing index, May (consensus 13.2, last 19.6)
  • 09:15 AM Industrial production, May (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); Manufacturing production, May (GS +0.1%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Capacity utilization, May (GS 76.1%, consensus 76.2%, last 76.1%): We estimate industrial production edged up by 0.1% in May, reflecting increases in auto and oil and gas production, but a decline in natural gas production. We estimate capacity utilization was unchanged at 76.1%.
  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, June (consensus 37, last 37)

Tuesday, June 16 

  • 08:30 AM Import price index, May (consensus +0.8%, last +1.9%); Export price index, May (consensus +0.6%, last +3.3%)
  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, May (GS -1.5%, consensus -2.0%, last -2.8%) ; Building permits, May (consensus -0.2%, last +4.4%)

Wednesday, June 17 

  • 08:30 AM Retail sales, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.5%); Retail sales ex-auto, May (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.5%, last +0.7%); Retail sales ex-auto & gas, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%);Core retail sales, May (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%): We estimate nominal core retail sales increased 0.2% in May (ex-autos, gasoline, and building materials; month-over-month SA), reflecting a continued solid signal from alternative data but potential payback after several months of outsized increases. On an inflation-adjusted basis, we forecast a 0.3% increase in the core; the relevant deflator in the PCE price index likely declined 0.1% in May. We estimate nominal headline retail sales increased 0.4%, reflecting higher gasoline prices.
  • 10:00 AM Pending home sales, May (GS +2.0%, consensus +1.0%, last +1.4%)
  • 02:00 PM FOMC statement, June 16-17 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, at its June meeting, the first under new Chairman Kevin Warsh, the FOMC is likely to keep the funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75% and drop the previous forward guidance suggesting cuts. We expect the median dot to show no change to the funds rate in 2026, with three participants projecting a hike this year. We expect the median dot to still show two cuts eventually, most likely one in each of 2027 and 2028. We assume that Chairman Warsh will not submit dots in light of his past criticism of forward guidance, but we are not sure. The economic projections for 2026 are likely to show slightly lower GDP growth and unemployment, and much higher headline and core inflation, but we only expect a small increase in the inflation projections for 2027.

Thursday, June 18 

  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, June (GS 5.0, consensus 10.0, last -0.4)
  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended June 13 (GS 225k, consensus 225k, last 229k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 6 (consensus 1,785k, last 1,795k)

Friday, June 19 

  • Juneteenth National Independence Day. NYSE will be closed. SIFMA recommends bond markets also remain closed.

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 10:00

Trump Threatens 100% Tariff On French Wines Over Digital Services Tax

Trump Threatens 100% Tariff On French Wines Over Digital Services Tax

Update (0810ET): France's President Emmanuel Macron said Monday he wanted to have a "respectful but firm discussion" with Trump.

"We will have a respectful but firm discussion," Macron told TF1 as he prepared to host Trump and other leaders at a G7 summit.

"Tariffs don't do anyone any good, especially tariffs between G7 countries," Macron said.

As Tom Ozimek reported earlier via The Epoch Times, U.S. President Donald Trump on June 15 threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff on French wines and champagne unless France eliminates its digital services tax on large American technology companies.

Trump said he delivered the warning directly to French President Emmanuel Macron, demanding that Paris scrap its 3 percent levy on major U.S. tech firms or face steep duties on some of France’s best-known exports.

“I asked him not to charge American companies, and if they do, I have no choice but to charge a 100% tariff on all champagnes and all wines coming out of France,” Trump told the New York Post in an interview. “All [Macron] has to do is get rid of the sales tax, and he wouldn’t have that kind of pressure.”

Trump’s threat prompted concern from French exporters, who warned of further strain on an industry that depends heavily on overseas markets.

“This new threat is bad news for our industry, which relies heavily on exports,” French wine and spirits exporters association FEVS said.

The group called for “responsible behavior” and urged France and the United States to maintain balanced and constructive trade relations “in the interest of both economies.”

France’s digital services tax, introduced in 2019, imposes a 3 percent levy on revenue generated in France by large digital companies. The tax applies to firms with more than about $29 million in French revenue and roughly $870 million in global revenue.

The measure has long drawn criticism from Washington, with the United States saying that it disproportionately targets American technology companies.

Experts say that even a relatively low digital services tax (DST) rate can lead to high effective tax burdens because revenues, rather than profits, are taxed.

“Because DSTs tax revenues, not profits, a company with a 10 percent profit margin would face a 60 percent effective tax rate on digital services provided in France,” economist Cristina Enache of the Tax Foundation Europe wrote in an October 2025 note.

Harvesters fill a press with Chardonnay grapes at the Mailly-Champagne cooperative during the 2025 Champagne harvest on August 26, 2025. Francois Nascimbeni/AFP via Getty Images

Enache described the French tax as discriminatory and cited research noting that France’s DST is ill-conceived because, while it purports to target big digital platforms, the cost mostly falls on consumers.

“The French DST, which functions like a tariff on certain services, is designed to be discriminatory,” Enache wrote. “It targets industries largely dominated by US companies, and the discrimination would be even greater if the revenue threshold is increased.”

Digital Tax Dispute

The United States has repeatedly challenged digital services taxes adopted by France and other countries. During Trump’s first term, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative launched a series of Section 301 investigations into digital taxes that Washington viewed as discriminatory toward American companies.

“President Trump is concerned that many of our trading partners are adopting tax schemes designed to unfairly target our companies,” then-U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a June 2020 statement. “We are prepared to take all appropriate action to defend our businesses and workers against any such discrimination.”

Trump has previously threatened tariffs on French alcohol imports. In January, he said he would impose a 200 percent levy on French wines and champagne if France declined to participate in the U.S.-led Board of Peace initiative for Gaza. In March 2025, he threatened a 200 percent tariff on alcohol imports from France and other European Union countries after Brussels announced plans to impose a 50 percent tariff on American whiskey.

The stakes are significant for France’s wine industry. Exports of French wines and spirits to the United States account for roughly one-quarter of the sector’s global sales, valued at about $4.4 billion annually, per FEVS data for 2024.

Wine and spirits imported from the European Union currently face a 15 percent U.S. tariff, a rate French officials have been lobbying to reduce since Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reached a U.S.–EU trade agreement in Scotland last summer.

Last spring, amid an intensifying trade dispute between the United States and the EU, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that Trump’s tariff threats were intended to restore balance and fairness between trading partners.

“The EU has just so many years treated us so harshly, they just can’t stop,” Lutnick told Bloomberg TV in a March 2025 interview. “Their tariffs are way up here, and our tariffs are down here. How about: Relax. Let us balance it. We are your largest and most important trading partner. Treat us with respect and let’s get a little balance. Trump is out there saying: balance, balance, balance.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 08:50

Trump Threatens 100% Tariff On French Wines Over Digital Services Tax

Trump Threatens 100% Tariff On French Wines Over Digital Services Tax

Update (0810ET): France's President Emmanuel Macron said Monday he wanted to have a "respectful but firm discussion" with Trump.

"We will have a respectful but firm discussion," Macron told TF1 as he prepared to host Trump and other leaders at a G7 summit.

"Tariffs don't do anyone any good, especially tariffs between G7 countries," Macron said.

As Tom Ozimek reported earlier via The Epoch Times, U.S. President Donald Trump on June 15 threatened to impose a 100 percent tariff on French wines and champagne unless France eliminates its digital services tax on large American technology companies.

Trump said he delivered the warning directly to French President Emmanuel Macron, demanding that Paris scrap its 3 percent levy on major U.S. tech firms or face steep duties on some of France’s best-known exports.

“I asked him not to charge American companies, and if they do, I have no choice but to charge a 100% tariff on all champagnes and all wines coming out of France,” Trump told the New York Post in an interview. “All [Macron] has to do is get rid of the sales tax, and he wouldn’t have that kind of pressure.”

Trump’s threat prompted concern from French exporters, who warned of further strain on an industry that depends heavily on overseas markets.

“This new threat is bad news for our industry, which relies heavily on exports,” French wine and spirits exporters association FEVS said.

The group called for “responsible behavior” and urged France and the United States to maintain balanced and constructive trade relations “in the interest of both economies.”

France’s digital services tax, introduced in 2019, imposes a 3 percent levy on revenue generated in France by large digital companies. The tax applies to firms with more than about $29 million in French revenue and roughly $870 million in global revenue.

The measure has long drawn criticism from Washington, with the United States saying that it disproportionately targets American technology companies.

Experts say that even a relatively low digital services tax (DST) rate can lead to high effective tax burdens because revenues, rather than profits, are taxed.

“Because DSTs tax revenues, not profits, a company with a 10 percent profit margin would face a 60 percent effective tax rate on digital services provided in France,” economist Cristina Enache of the Tax Foundation Europe wrote in an October 2025 note.

Harvesters fill a press with Chardonnay grapes at the Mailly-Champagne cooperative during the 2025 Champagne harvest on August 26, 2025. Francois Nascimbeni/AFP via Getty Images

Enache described the French tax as discriminatory and cited research noting that France’s DST is ill-conceived because, while it purports to target big digital platforms, the cost mostly falls on consumers.

“The French DST, which functions like a tariff on certain services, is designed to be discriminatory,” Enache wrote. “It targets industries largely dominated by US companies, and the discrimination would be even greater if the revenue threshold is increased.”

Digital Tax Dispute

The United States has repeatedly challenged digital services taxes adopted by France and other countries. During Trump’s first term, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative launched a series of Section 301 investigations into digital taxes that Washington viewed as discriminatory toward American companies.

“President Trump is concerned that many of our trading partners are adopting tax schemes designed to unfairly target our companies,” then-U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer said in a June 2020 statement. “We are prepared to take all appropriate action to defend our businesses and workers against any such discrimination.”

Trump has previously threatened tariffs on French alcohol imports. In January, he said he would impose a 200 percent levy on French wines and champagne if France declined to participate in the U.S.-led Board of Peace initiative for Gaza. In March 2025, he threatened a 200 percent tariff on alcohol imports from France and other European Union countries after Brussels announced plans to impose a 50 percent tariff on American whiskey.

The stakes are significant for France’s wine industry. Exports of French wines and spirits to the United States account for roughly one-quarter of the sector’s global sales, valued at about $4.4 billion annually, per FEVS data for 2024.

Wine and spirits imported from the European Union currently face a 15 percent U.S. tariff, a rate French officials have been lobbying to reduce since Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reached a U.S.–EU trade agreement in Scotland last summer.

Last spring, amid an intensifying trade dispute between the United States and the EU, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that Trump’s tariff threats were intended to restore balance and fairness between trading partners.

“The EU has just so many years treated us so harshly, they just can’t stop,” Lutnick told Bloomberg TV in a March 2025 interview. “Their tariffs are way up here, and our tariffs are down here. How about: Relax. Let us balance it. We are your largest and most important trading partner. Treat us with respect and let’s get a little balance. Trump is out there saying: balance, balance, balance.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 08:50

US Futures, Global Stocks Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal

US Futures, Global Stocks Surge, Oil Tumbles On Iran Deal

Global markets soared in a risk-on rally following the announcement of a US-Iran deal Sunday night. Stocks and bonds rallied while oil tumbled to a three-month low after the US and Iran said they have reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and halt the war. This will provide a 60-day window for negotiation. As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 2.1%, while those for the S&P 500 rose 1.3%. In the pre-market, Mag 7 are all higher led by NVDA (+2.1%), META (+2.0%) and MSFT (+1.7%). European stocks climbed 0.7% to shatter a pre-war record high while Asian stocks were similarly buoyant. Bond yields are 2-5bp lower led by the belly of the curve and the 10Y trading around 4.4%. The USD is lower. Brent fell to around $83 a barrel and WTI slid below $80 for the first time since the start of the war. Gold and Bitcoin gained strongly, while the dollar lost ground against all major currencies. European bonds outperformed global peers. Metals are higher led by gold (2.8%) and silver (+3.9%). US economic data calendar includes June Empire manufacturing (8:30am), May industrial production (9:15am) and June NAHB housing market index (10am)

In premarket trading, miners, cruise-line operators and airlines gain, while energy stocks fall, on the US-Iran deal. Mag 7 stocks are all higher (Amazon +2.4%, Nvidia +2%, Alphabet +1.8%, Meta +1.5%, Microsoft +1.5%, Tesla +1.5%, Apple +0.7%)

  • Hawkeye 360 (HAWK) is up 6.1% after Jefferies raised its recommendation on the defense technology company to buy from hold on revenue upside from defense demand.
  • Old Dominion (ODFL) falls 1.1% after Citi analyst Ariel Rosa cut the recommendation to sell from neutral, writing that optimism about the trucking industry seems to be reflected in the valuations of sector players.
  • Roku Inc. (ROKU) shares rise 2.5% after Fox Corp. agreed to buy the company for $160 per share in cash and stock. Fox (FOXA) shares fall 13%
  • SpaceX (SPCX) jumps 6% after its blockbuster debut Friday vaulted it into the ranks of the world’s most valuable public companies.

In other weekend news, the US government has ordered Anthropic to disable access to its most advanced AI platforms for all foreign nationals after discovering it’s possible to “jailbreak” the Fable 5 AI model. 

The agreement between Washington and Tehran signals an end a three-month conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and upended financial markets. A pickup in energy flows would also help unwind the premium embedded in crude prices, offering comfort to policymakers battling inflation.

“Risk appetite is back on, but the issue is to know whether the Strait fully reopens,” said Christopher Dembik, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management. “Trump doesn’t have a great track record of lasting deals in the Middle East, so there’s a risk of tensions spiking back during the summer.”

Investors are awaiting details of the US-Iran agreement ahead of a formal signing scheduled for Friday in Switzerland. The Strait of Hormuz will reopen after Friday’s signing of the deal, President Donald Trump said on social media. The event would then trigger the start of 60 days of talks on Iran’s nuclear program. Trump told the New York Times that if an agreement isn’t reached on nuclear, he could restart military attacks. For its part, Iran will allow free transit through the waterway for only 60 days, Fars news agency reported, citing a person familiar with the matter.

“It’s not a permanent solution, so a significant risk premium will likely be priced into markets,” said George Moran, European macro strategist at RBC. “But, if oil stays around $80-85, it certainly takes a good amount of pressure off central bankers’ shoulders.”

Investors bet that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely help ease inflation pressures and reinforce expecations for lower interest rates. Swaps traders are pricing about a 75% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by December, down from about 80% on Friday.

The agreement sees some hedge funds reopening pre-war playbooks, while some market participants caution the economic fallout from the conflict remains unresolved. Reactions in other assets include Bitcoin rallying to its highest level in nearly two weeks, while WTI crude oil slumped around 5%, although considerable challenges remain to relieving a profound global crunch. Hormuz trade will take months to return to normal. 

Turning back to the market, the US stock market is poised to see a surge in new equity issuance, with JPMorgan estimating share sales will add roughly $1.5 trillion of stock to the market over the next two years. It could herald a seismic shift, compared to buybacks by S&P 500 companies alone erasing $12 trillion worth of stock over 20 years.

Meanwhile, with everyone flooding back into risk, the cost to fund US equity positions is jumping unexpectedly, due to the combination of the AI-driven stock rally, the massive growth of leveraged ETFs and SpaceX’s $75 billion listing. The financing spreads embedded in S&P 500 Index futures have opened up the biggest gap to Treasury financing rates since late 2024. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 gains are led by autos, industrials and construction stocks, though the benchmark has pared its rise. Here are the biggest movers Monday:

  • Banca Generali climbs as much as 9.5% to a new record after Jefferies upgraded the Italian private bank to buy, based on a turn in flows and better visibility
  • IQE shares rise as much as 20% after the semiconductor company announced a multiyear agreement to supply indium phosphide wafers to Tower Semiconductor
  • Técnicas Reunidas rises as much as 10% after the Spanish company said it has been awarded two engineering, procurement and construction contracts for upstream facilities to handle oil field production in the Middle East
  • Belimo shares advance as much as 9.2% to the highest since July 2025 after Morgan Stanley upgraded the company to overweight, saying much of the company’s revenue growth in coming three years will come from data centers
  • Corbion shares rise as much as 8.9% to their highest since February 2025 after the Dutch company got an upgrade to buy at Berenberg, which cited higher fish oil prices and the potential for further consolidation in the food ingredients sector
  • Energy and defense stocks are among those underperforming as European stocks rise to a new record, with most sectors trading higher after the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz
  • Kesko falls as much as 11% after the Finnish retailer said it would buy building materials distributor Dahl’s business in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark from Saint-Gobain for €1.2 billion excluding debt. Kesko will sell new shares as part of the financing
  • Telia falls as much as 4%, the most since January, after being downgraded to sell from hold at Berenberg, which said expectations of stronger growth are already reflected in the price
  • Vistry shares fall as much as 5.6% to the lowest since 1999 after analysts said the homebuilder is cutting prices more aggressively than peers and faces a greater impact from rising build costs
  • Luceco slides as much as 12%, retreating from the 2022-high hit at the end of last week, after the maker of electrical products said CEO John Hornby is retiring
  • Shares in AJ Bell, DWS and Aberdeen slip after Goldman Sachs downgrades the three investment firms, arguing that recent rallies leave limited upside at a time when the sector faces increased competition and a continued shift toward passive investment
  • UCB drops as much as 4.3% after Barclays downgraded the stock to equal-weight from overweight, citing limited upside for the Belgian biopharmaceutical company’s shares over the next 12 months

Asian stocks advanced after the US and Iran announced an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over energy-supply disruptions that have driven up oil prices. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 3.2%, on track for its biggest two-day rally since March 2022. Japan’s Nikkei 225 soared to a record high, while South Korea’s Kospi and the Philippine index gained more than 5%. Most other regional markets were in the green. The renewed flow of energy under the peace deal is expected to lower inflationary pressures ahead of interest rate decisions this week from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. The threat of tighter monetary policy has clouded the outlook for growth following the artificial intelligence boom of the past few years. Among key factors being watched locally, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to the highest level since 1995 in its decision due Tuesday. Sectors to Watch

  • Chinese electric truck and battery maker stocks rise after the government announced a plan to scale up new‑energy heavy-duty trucks, targeting 40% market penetration.
  • Chinese chip stocks advance as risk appetite improves, with sentiment further boosted by a report that ByteDance is in talks with China’s Iluvatar CoreX to buy AI chips.
  • Asian gold-related stocks follow precious metal prices higher after the US and Iran reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Asian energy shares fall, tracking a slump in oil, after the US and Iran said they reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Airline stocks rise.
  • InnoScience Suzhou Technology’s shares jump as much as 12% in Hong Kong after China’s top court backs the company’s case and blocks Infineon Technologies from selling gallium nitride products in the country.
  • Chinese brokerage stocks rise as investors rotate into cyclicals on improved sentiment from Iran peace deal and earnings outlook.
  • Japanese space industry stocks plunged after SpaceX surged on its first day of trading in the US Friday.

In rates, treasuries hold opening gap higher, with futures just off session highs in early US session and front-end yields 4bp-5bp lower. Price action is driven by slide in oil prices after the US and Iran reached agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz. Fed rate-hike expectations shift further into the future, with a 25bp move fully priced in by March. Treasury yield curve steepens as front-end tenors outperform, widening 2s10s spread by about 1bp, 5s30s by 2.5bp; 10-year is around 4.44% vs session low 4.418% reached in Asia session, slightly lagging bunds and gilts in the sector.  Treasury auctions this week include $13 billion 20-year bond reopening Tuesday and $24 billion 5-year TIPS reopening Thursday. IG dollar issuance slate includes a couple of offerings so far; dealers forecast about $25 billion this week, concentrated ahead of Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

In commodities, Brent drops to about $83/barrel and WTI is below $81, down 5% to the lowest since the start of the Iran war. Gold prices are also rising above $4,300/oz on reduced rate-hike bets. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is off its lows but still down against most major currencies.

US economic data calendar includes June Empire manufacturing (8:30am), May industrial production (9:15am) and June NAHB housing market index (10am)

Market Snapshot

Top Overnight News

  • The US and Iran said they reached an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, setting the stage for 60 days of negotiations on the fate of Tehran’s nuclear program. Iran will allow free Hormuz transit during that period under the pact. Both sides will meet in Switzerland on Friday to sign a deal. No text of the accord has been released. BBG
  • The stock market is starting to expand again after years of shrinking — and potentially at a scale not seen since the dot-com era. For the better part of two decades, a defining feature of the US stock market has been scarcity. Year after year, shares disappeared from public hands, with buybacks by S&P 500 companies alone erasing nearly $12 trillion worth. BBG
  • Treasuries climbed across the curve as investors dialed back expectations for inflation and Fed rate hikes. The reported deal may help alleviate pressure on Kevin Warsh before this week’s policy meeting. BBG
  • European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned that high energy prices are starting to feed through to other parts of the economy. Lagarde said the ECB will take measures if they start to feel second-round effects, such as wage increases, and are looking at underlying inflation. BBG
  • Prices are likely to stay elevated for longer even if the war in Iran were to end soon, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said in an interview with Deutschlandfunk. BBG
  • The UK announced a full ban on under-16s using social media from early next year in one of the strictest online crackdowns in the democratic world. BBG
  • Russia’s ballistic-missile attacks against Ukraine have grown in ferocity and magnitude in recent weeks because Russian military planners are exploiting one of Ukraine’s greatest weaknesses: The Ukrainian military does not have enough Patriot missile interceptors to keep up with the barrages. NYT
  • President Donald Trump has said he will hit France’s wine industry with a 100% tariff on exports to the U.S. if it does not scrap its digital services tax on U.S. technology companies. The warning comes ahead of this week’s G7 meeting in Évian-les-Bains, France. CNBC
  • South Korea's stock market is approaching a milestone of potentially being considered for MSCI Inc.'s developed-market status after surging more than 90% this year. Most investors expect MSCI to keep Korea in the emerging-market camp for now, but believe it's a matter of time before Korea is classified as a developed market. BBG
  • JPM Market Intel team: "We flipped to Tactically Bullish from the previous cautious stance because a potential US–Iran agreement could catalyze a broad risk-on impulse across equities, supported by strong fundamentals. That said, the historical pattern suggests that “everything rally” can fade into concentrated leadership following the initial impulse"
  • Volatile market rotations during the past week continued to follow the pattern of the sharpest Momentum rallies in recent decades. Before the sell-off that started two weeks ago, a narrow-breadth Momentum rally had driven the sharpest two-month S&P 500 return since 1971, when scaled relative to volatility. Following similarly sharp rallies in the past, the Momentum factor has usually struggled during the subsequent few months. In addition to the historical precedent, the current market characteristics of elevated trading leverage, still-narrow market breadth, and uncertainty about both the macro outlook and the AI build-out suggest volatility will persist. Goldman

Weekend Iran War Updates

  • Over the weekend, the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, marking a significant de-escalation of the conflict. Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil and releasing part of Iran's frozen assets. Regarding uranium, Iran would be allowed to dilute enriched uranium on site, while the 60-day window allows for further negotiations on its enriched uranium programme. The deal also covers Lebanon, with Pakistan's PM posting on X that the pact called for the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.
  • A source told Fars that the text of the MoU underwent changes that have definitely and explicitly emphasised the issue of exercising Iranian-Oman sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. It is now written that the future of the administration of maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz will be "determined" by Iran and Oman. Furthermore, the change now writes that Iran will only accept ships for 60 days of free passage. That is, the US has accepted the principle of receiving fees and has only taken a 60-day discount from Iran. But after these 60 days, Iran intends to benefit from the financial revenues generated by the traffic. 
  • Israeli Defence Minister Katz said "we oppose the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon... have made it clear to US President Trump". If Iran attacks Israel because of events in Lebanon, "we will strike it with full force and make sure it clearly understands the gap in capabilities." 
  • Israel's Finance Minister said that "the agreement is bad for the entire world. We will have to continue the campaign in creative ways." 
  • Israeli National Security Minister Ben-Gvir said US President Trump's agreement does not bind us in any way. 
  • US and Iran to hold preparatory talks in Doha before deal signing, AFP reported citing a diplomat. 
  • UKMTO receives report of an incident 14 Nautical Miles south of Yemen coast.
  • US President Trump posted on Sunday, "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!"
  • US President Trump said in a New York Times phone interview that he reached a deal, despite objections from Israeli PM Netanyahu, whom he described as "very difficult", while Trump added the US is to resume Iran strikes if it can't reach a nuclear accord. Trump also stated that the deal is to ensure the Strait of Hormuz is permanently toll-free and that the MoU suspends tolls in the Strait for 60 days.
  • Pakistan's PM Sharif said, following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the peace deal between the US and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been reached, with the official signing ceremony to take place on Friday, 19th June in Switzerland. Sharif also stated that both sides have declared an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and that with an agreement now in place, the mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week.
  • Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi said the text of the memorandum of understanding has been finalised and an official signing of the MoU take place on Friday in Switzerland, while negotiations for a final deal will be held for a period of 60 days and they will take their own measures if they witness breaches from the other side. Gharibabadi said the MoU text will be published after official signing, but does not mean trust in the enemy, as well as noted that among the topics to be discussed in the 60-day negotiations are ending sanctions, mechanisms for Iran's reconstruction, and establishing mechanisms to monitor all parties' commitments.
  • Iran's Foreign Ministry said an immediate and permanent end to the war and military operations on all fronts is effective Sunday night, while it added that talks are contingent on the release of assets and the lifting of sanctions.
  • Iranian media Mehr News reported that the US-Iran 14-point MoU includes a US commitment to lift sanctions, withdraw its forces from around Iran, lift the naval blockade, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift oil sanctions, and release frozen Iranian funds; nuclear issue pushed back by 60 days for final agreement. Additionally, the US is required to present a plan to rebuild Iran’s economy, while the final negotiations between the two countries should focus on nuclear and economic issues, without discussing Iran’s missile program. This text still needs to be reviewed and finalized by the relevant institutions in Iran. 
  • US official denied Iran's claim of a USD 12bln unconditional fund release, stating that any release of Iranian funds is tied to a pay-for-performance deal, according to Axios' Ravid.
  • Iran's chief negotiator/Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi will travel to Geneva to sign the agreement, while US VP Vance is reported to sign on behalf of Washington, according to NYT. It was also reported by Axios that US VP Vance will meet with Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf in Geneva on Friday to sign the US-Iran agreement.
  • Mehr News reported continued violations of the ceasefire, stating that Nabatiyeh and Kafrmanah in southern Lebanon were targeted by Israeli artillery shelling.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks rallied following the announcement that the US and Iran reached an interim agreement to end the hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The deal, which is scheduled to be signed on Friday, immediately ends the US naval blockade against Iran and provides time for negotiations towards a final deal to be held for a period of 60 days. However, there are some differing views between the sides regarding the release of funds, with Iran claiming a USD 12bln unconditional fund release, which a US official pushed back on, stating that any release of Iranian funds is tied to a pay-for-performance deal, while President Trump warned that the US would resume Iran strikes if it can't reach a nuclear accord. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in the mining, materials and resources sectors, with notable strength seen in gold miners, while energy was at the other end of the spectrum owing to the reaction in underlying commodities to the deal to extend the ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz. Nikkei 225 surged to a fresh record high above the 69,000 level with tech, manufacturing and heavy industry stocks boosted amid the lower oil prices and peace agreement. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp tracked the gains of regional peers as the PBoC continued to boost its daily liquidity efforts, and with the gains led by mining and tech, while Chinese airlines soared and oil majors suffered from the drop in oil prices.

Top Asian News

  • Fitch affirms China at "A"; outlook stable.
  • China issued guidelines on classifying and grading financial information data.
  • China is setting up for a commercial launch of a cross-border digital currency platform that would be backed by the central banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand, the UAE and Saudi Arabia to reduce reliance on the dollar and to draw Beijing closer to its Belt and Road trading partners, according to FT.
  • China set out a plan to scale up new-energy heavy-duty trucks and targets 40% market penetration and a fleet of more than 1.6mln vehicles by 2030.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.6%) are rallying after the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, with the STOXX 600 now reaching a new ATH. Details are yet to be confirmed, but it suggests Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the US will lift the naval blockade, waive sanctions on Iranian oil and partially release Iran's frozen assets. If there is no breakdown of the deal, the MoU is to be officially signed on Friday in Geneva. Sectors are broadly higher. Cyclicals that have suffered from the closure of Hormuz are the clear outperformers (Autos +3.3%, Construction +2.7%, Travel & Leisure +2.4%). Energy (-3.1%) is the clear underperformer, while Utilities (-1.0%) and Telecoms (-1.1%) also show modest losses.

Top European News

  • UK PM Starmer is set to backtrack on electric vehicle targets by reducing the all-electric cap from 80% to 50% by the end of the decade amid fears of job losses, according to FT.
  • UK PM Starmer confirmed that the Government is to ban social media for all under 16s.

FX

  • G10s mostly firmer against the Buck as energy returns to March levels on the US and Iran’s interim agreement. Antipodeans and CHF lead, while USD/JPY briefly ventured below 160.
  • DXY -0.3%, is pressured as the risk environment is bolstered by the US-Iran interim deal (see commodities for more details). Fed tightening bets have eased overnight with markets assigning a c. 60% probability of a 25bps hike by year-end. Domestic newsflow light ahead of Warsh’s first FOMC meeting as Chair on Wednesday. DXY marked a session trough just below its 21DMA of 99.41.
  • EUR is firmer against both the Sterling and Buck as it reacts to the softer energy complex. Some ECB speakers this morning, none of which did much to spur a reaction in the currency, as price action remains dependent on geopolitical developments. A number of speakers are due to provide remarks throughout the week, which could provide hints as to whether further tightening is warranted, but with constructive updates this weekend, the chances are slimmer.
  • GBP firms, but to a lesser extent than EUR (EUR/GBP +0.2%) with the Makerfield by-election potentially deciding the next UK Prime Minister, and the BoE meeting on Thursday, likely to see the MPC opt to stand pat on rates in a expected 7-2 vote split. On the former, Burnham was busy on the wires over the weekend. He said he would not touch the state pension triple lock, and there were also further reports suggesting Home Secretary Mahmood was an option for Chancellor. GBP/USD +0.2% with 1.34 vulnerable to the downside. EUR/GBP looks to test 0.8650, where the rally stalled overnight. Upside risks to the cross should UK Political uncertainty continue, and an unconvincing BoE potentially highlight vulnerable EUR-UK differentials.
  • CHF is the best performer after the nation voted to reject a proposal to cap its population at 10mln, avoiding issues with the EU (USD/CHF -0.4%). NOK is the worst G10 performer with the popular Middle East conflict trade NOK/SEK continuing to unwind (NOK/SEK -0.9%).

Fixed Income

  • Global fixed benchmarks rise as the US and Iran agree to a framework peace deal, which has led to continued and sustained pressure in the crude complex. In brief, the US and Iran have reached a framework peace agreement; the US will lift its naval blockade, and Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, a full text has not yet been released, which has stemmed some uncertainty on a few key points.
  • USTs (+9 ticks) are currently off the overnight highs and continued the downward bias throughout the European morning (109-24+ to 111-00 range). Action which has been facilitated by the easing of inflationary implications associated with lower energy prices. From a yield perspective, there is a clear bull steepening. The US 2yr (4.03%) is eyeing the round 4.00% mark but still remains well above the levels seen pre-Iran war (3.47%). The path yields take will be subject to: a) developments heading into Friday’s signing, b) the signing itself, c) the time it takes for stockpiles to be rebuilt. Finally, on Fed pricing, markets now assign a 65% chance of a hike by Dec’26 (vs the prev. fully priced by year-end).
  • Bunds (+46 ticks) and Gilts (+46 ticks) both gain, thanks to the positive geopolitical updates; the latter outperforming a touch given the UK’s high reliance on external energy. This also comes ahead of the BoE policy decision this Thursday, where rates are expected to remain on hold – the latest geopolitical updates will only further cement that decision.

Commodities

  • Over the weekend,the US and Iran announced a 60-day peace framework, marking a significant de-escalation of the conflict. Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US lifting its naval blockade, waiving sanctions on Iranian oil and releasing part of Iran's frozen assets. Regarding uranium, Iran would be allowed to dilute enriched uranium on site, while the 60-day window allows for further negotiations on its enriched uranium programme. The deal also covers Lebanon, with Pakistan's PM posting on X that the pact called for the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. However, comments by Israeli Defence Minister Katz suggest Israel will not back out of Lebanon, stating that Israel opposes the withdrawal of the IDF from Lebanon. Additional comments by Israeli Finance Minister stating the US-Iran agreement is harmful to Israel and that they will have to continue their campaign in creative ways.
  • Crude futures gapped lower at the open and have held onto earlier losses. WTI Jul'26 briefly dipped below USD 80/bbl (USD 79.70-82.42/bbl) while Brent Aug'26 trades at the lower end of its USD 82.67-85.93/bbl range.
  • Spot gold has benefited from the weekend newsflow, as markets pare back rate hike bets. Markets now assign a c. 60% probability of a hike by December. Spot gold regained the USD 4300/oz handle, currently trading at the upper end of its USD 4281-4346/oz range.
  • 3M LME Copper gains amid the constructive risk tone, gapping higher and oscillating in a USD 13.76k-13.87k/t range.

Trade/Tariffs

  • US President Trump threatened 100% tariffs on French wine over digital tax and demands France axes 3% tech levy or face a trade war, according to NYP.
  • Indian Trade Official said USTR Greer to visit India on June 23-24th with the focus on final revisions to interim agreement.

Central Bank

  • ECB's Kazimir said it is increasingly evident that monetary policy has more work to do and is not comfortable with outlook for core inflation above 2% even with more tightening. Even with the US-Iran peace framework, damage in the Middle East cannot be undone overnight and is leaning towards frontloading work that needs to be done, but need to be agile and responsive to incoming information.
  • ECB's Nagel said the ECB is keeping all options open for July meeting and that the ECB is no longer dealing with short-term supply shock. Can't exclude second-round effects from energy. ECB policy settings are still broadly neutral but there is no relief in sight for the foreseeable future.
  • ECB's Kazaks said the ECB can move gradually but is ready to act if needed. To add, Kazaks still see upside risks to inflation.

Ukraine updates

  • Ukraine targeted a Russian chemical plant and fuel depot in strikes. It was separately reported that three people were killed and another three were injured in Russia's city of Tula following a drone attack, while a Ukrainian attack damaged two bridges in the Russian-held Kherson region.
  • Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant was reconnected to the grid after repairs were carried out under an IAEA-brokered local ceasefire.
  • UK forces boarded a sanctioned tanker in the Channel on Sunday in a raid on Russia’s shadow fleet.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30 am: Jun Empire Manufacturing, est. 13.5, prior 19.6
  • 9:15 am: May Industrial Production MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.7%
  • 9:15 am: May Capacity Utilization, est. 76.2%, prior 76.1%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I hope you all had a good weekend. It was the school fete, and my kids ran what they felt was a very successful homemade lemonade and orangeade stand. The kids and my wife were saying it made so much money they could set up their own business. Without wanting to be a party pooper I had to remind them that I saw the costs on my bank statement. A few hundred oranges and lemons, lots of soda water, other ingredients, an industrial vat to mix it, a few huge glass bottles with taps to dispense them and then all the cups. Oh, and the gazebo, and no ground rent so far. So if anyone wants to invest in this bunch of well-meaning dreamers, please feel free to take me out of my stake. Although if the IPO market stays this buoyant maybe I'll just hold on and float it in a few weeks.

The fizz in staying in markets this morning as after 107 days and a seemingly endless number of false dawns, we finally have a deal between the US and Iran to end the war and open the Strait of Hormuz. It was announced at around 10:30pm UK last night and the MoU will be signed in Switzerland on Friday. According to statements carried by Iranian state-affiliated media, the agreement includes a phased lifting of US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the unfreezing of roughly $12bn in overseas assets, and a commitment to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days (after mine clearing) alongside the removal of the US naval blockade. The deal also sets out a 60-day negotiation window on a broader accord, including constraints around Iran’s nuclear programme, where Tehran is expected to commit to maintaining its current status and not pursuing nuclear weapons. The US hasn’t been so explicit and whilst the deal is very good news for markets it looks like tough conversations will have occur in the 60-day window to ensure the peace is sustainable. As an example, the Senate needs to approve any extensive sanction relief for Iran. 

For now the can kicking exercise has been very well received by markets even after a strong US close on Friday where hopes were raised of a weekend signing. Brent is -4.3% lower at $83.31/bbl and S&P 500 (+1.20%), NASDAQ 100 (+1.90%) and Stoxx (+1.60%) futures are higher as I type and in Asia the KOSPI (+5.56%) is again leading the charge with the Nikkei (+5.24%) not far behind and at fresh record highs. The CSI and Shanghai Composite are +1.47% and +0.94% respectively, while the Hang Seng is +0.45%. The S&P/ASX 200 (+1.34%) is also trading significantly higher ahead of tomorrow’s RBA meeting. 10-year USTs are trading -5.3bps lower at 4.43% as I write with 2-yr yields -5.7bps lower.

The other major story is the decision late on Friday from the US government to issue an export control directive forcing Anthropic to restrict access to its most advanced models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, released to great global acclaim last week, to US nationals only, citing undefined national security concerns. In practice, because it is operationally difficult to separate users by nationality, Anthropic opted to suspend access to these models entirely on a global basis. The move marks one of the first instances of the US applying export controls not just to AI hardware (e.g. semiconductors) but directly to frontier models themselves, reflecting a growing view of AI as a strategic, dual use asset.
Clearly the export control may only be temporary as the cited jailbreak risk is examined and rectified quickly. This is probably the most likely outcome. However, if it longer-term, and more strategic from the US government, it's not great news for US tech firms or for those assuming breakneck speed of AI adoption. US tech firms require a global marketplace to justify their huge investments so far. In addition, global enterprise would want to ensure any models they purchase are usable, especially for business-critical operations. You can't rely on something that could be switched off. So all eyes on what Anthropic and the US government agree as the next step.

Outside of Iran and AI, central banks will dominate the global agenda in the coming week, with key policy decisions across the Fed, BoJ and BoE alongside important inflation and activity data.

The primary focus will be the United States and Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, which marks the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The leadership transition introduces a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty around both policy signalling and communication style. While an immediate policy shift is unlikely, the meeting will be closely scrutinised for early indications of how Warsh intends to reshape the Fed’s framework, particularly given his stated ambition for a broader “regime change”.

In terms of the statement, a modest upgrade to the labour market assessment appears likely, reflecting steady job growth and a broadly stable unemployment rate. More importantly, the guidance language could shift meaningfully. Warsh has been openly critical of heavy reliance on forward guidance, so the Committee may lean towards a more neutral, data-dependent formulation. This would effectively remove any residual easing bias and reopen the possibility of further tightening should inflation dynamics warrant it. Any such adjustment would be interpreted as a recalibration towards optionality rather than a firm directional signal.

Beyond the headline statement, attention will turn to the Summary of Economic Projections. The distribution of rate expectations may shift upwards, with 4 or 5 policymakers signalling the potential for hikes into 2026 and beyond. This would likely nudge the median path higher across the projection horizon and reinforce the idea that the Fed is not yet comfortable declaring victory on inflation. Our economists note that Warsh may not submit dots which would reflect his views on forward guidance. Revisions to inflation forecasts, particularly for the outer years, will also be closely examined for evidence of more persistent price pressures. At the moment our economists expect core PCE for 2027 to be raised by a tenth to 2.3%.

However, the most revealing element of the meeting may be Warsh’s press conference. His prior remarks suggest he will likely place less emphasis on near-term data fluctuations and explicit forward guidance, instead favouring a broader narrative around structural forces such as productivity and technological change. While this could temper the immediate hawkish interpretation, markets may test whether this framing is sufficient to justify patience in the face of still-elevated inflation. Just as important will be any early signals on communication reform—whether through changes to the dot plot, adjustments to the SEP, or a broader rethink of how the Fed conveys uncertainty. So a fascinating meeting to look forward to.

In terms of US data, the focus will be on May retail sales due Wednesday, and our US economists expect a +0.5% MoM rise in the headline (same as in April). Industrial production is due today (DB forecast is a +0.1% MoM increase, down from +0.7% in April) and there will be several housing indicators out this week as well. US markets will be on holiday for the Juneteenth National Independence Day on Friday.
Outside the US, central bank activity remains heavy. In Europe, decisions are due from the Riksbank and a cluster of Thursday meetings including the Bank of England, Swiss National Bank and Norges Bank. In the UK, the BoE is expected to keep rates unchanged, with attention focused on the vote split (our team expect 7-2) and any evolution in guidance against a backdrop of still-sticky inflation (see preview here). Incoming UK data, particularly CPI (Wednesday), labour market indicators (Thursday) and retail sales (Friday), will provide important context for the policy outlook. Meanwhile, euro area attention will also be shaped by ongoing commentary from ECB officials and sentiment indicators such as the German ZEW survey (tomorrow).

Political developments will also be in focus, with the G7 leaders meeting early in the week (today through Wednesday) followed by the European Council summit (Thursday-Friday).

In Asia, the Bank of Japan meeting (tomorrow) stands out, with expectations for a further rate increase as part of its gradual normalisation process. Japanese inflation data later in the week (Friday) will help gauge whether underlying price momentum continues to justify policy tightening. In China, their monthly activity data tomorrow covering industrial production and retail sales will provide an updated read on the growth trajectory, with expectations for a modest improvement after recent softness.

Elsewhere in the region, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to remain on hold (tomorrow), while New Zealand’s GDP release (Wednesday) will offer further insight into the strength of its economic recovery.

Recapping last week now, and markets saw big moves on the back of geopolitical developments, as tensions first mounted in the Middle East, before easing markedly into the weekend. Overall, hopes for an imminent deal meant that oil prices came down, with Brent crude closing beneath $90/bbl for the first time since early March, down -6.19% to close at $87.33bbl (-3.37% Friday). Indeed, that was clear across the futures curve, with the 6-month Brent future also down -3.46% to $81.69/bbl, its lowest level since April.

With oil prices at their lowest in months, that helped to ease fears about a wider stagflationary shock. Moreover, investors also became dovish on the future rates outlook. For instance, futures were fully pricing in a Fed rate hike by December at the start of the week, but that probability was down to 82% by the weekend. So that meant the 10yr Treasury yield fell -5.0bps (+1.9bps Friday) to 4.48%. And over in Europe, the 10yr bund yield fell -3.7bps to 2.99%, with markets looking through the ECB’s 25bp hike given it was already priced in beforehand.  

For equities this provided a strong backdrop, as positive geopolitical headlines and easing inflation fears supported optimism on the near-term outlook. So the S&P 500 managed to pare back some of the previous week’s decline, with a weekly gain of +0.65% (+0.50% Friday). And over in Europe, there were even stronger gains for the STOX 600, which rose +1.69% (+1.88% Friday). In the tech space, there was another big gain for the Philly semiconductor index, which rose +9.42% last week, but that followed a -10.26% decline on the previous Friday, so the index was still beneath its levels prior to that slump. Meanwhile, rotation away from mega caps saw the Mag-7 fall by -2.54%.

Some other assets also saw less favorable moves. In Germany, the DAX fell -0.50%, making it a relative underperformer in Europe, while Japan’s Nikkei fell -0.85%. Otherwise, HY credit spreads widened on both sides of the Atlantic, with US HY up +1bps and Euro HY up +18bps, though IG spreads were more sanguine, with US IG down -1bps and Euro IG flat. And gold fell -2.52% to its lowest weekly close of 2026 at $4,219/oz.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 08:20

Fox Buys Roku In $22 Billion Deal To Build "Next-Gen Media" Giant

Fox Buys Roku In $22 Billion Deal To Build "Next-Gen Media" Giant

Fox agreed to acquire Roku for $160 per share in a cash-and-stock deal, valuing Roku at around $22 billion. The deal marks a major push by Fox into connected TV, streaming advertising, and direct-to-consumer distribution.

On Friday, Roku shares jumped 20% to a four-year high on Bloomberg news that the company was in talks to be acquired by an unnamed media company. That created a wave of suspense over the weekend among Wall Street research desks, which published several notes speculating on potential acquirers.

JPM

Needham

Citizens

Under the terms of the deal, Roku shareholders will receive $96 in cash and .9693 shares of Fox Class A common stock for each Roku share. Existing Fox shareholders are expected to own about 73% of the combined company, with Roku shareholders owning roughly 27%.

"The transaction combines FOX's leading sports, news and entertainment content and the Tubi service, with Roku's leading connected TV platform, The Roku Channel, first-party data and direct relationship with more than 100 million global streaming households. Together, FOX and Roku will create a scaled next-generation media and technology company positioned at the intersection of two of the most important forces reshaping video consumption: the enduring primacy of live sports and news, and the continued rise of streaming," Fox wrote in a press release, in what only appears to be the emergency of a media empire.

Lachlan K. Murdoch, executive chair and CEO of Fox, said, "In 2020, we acquired Tubi and under our stewardship it has become one of the most successful businesses in streaming. Today, we take the next step: bringing together the most valuable live content portfolio in video consumption with the preeminent streaming platform through which America watches it."

"This combination will transform the scope of our company into high-growth verticals and yield a step change in our overall growth profile," Murdoch said, adding, "And we are executing this acquisition from a position of financial strength – maintaining our investment grade balance sheet while providing our shareholders with an uninterrupted return of capital program in the form of share buybacks and dividends. Roku pioneered streaming TV and scaled it into a leading CTV platform. Together, we intend to lead its next chapter."

Fox detailed key benefits of the merger:

  • Increases scale and reach: The transaction pairs the leader in live news and sports with the leading connected TV platform. Roku's platform has leading scale in the attractive, high growth connected TV vertical, reaching over 100 million global streaming households, including more than half of all U.S. broadband households. FOX is #1 in live news and sports, with a portfolio including the NFL, MLB, NASCAR, Big Ten, FIFA World Cup, FOX News and FOX Business that represents some of the most valuable appointment-viewing content in television. Together, FOX and Roku will encompass premium live content, broad distribution and significant audience reach across linear and streaming.

  • Expands position in high growth verticals: The acquisition of Roku positions FOX across the full video ecosystem and provides a wider entry into the high growth segment of connected TV, particularly advertising and streaming subscriptions.

  • Creates a more powerful streaming platform: Brings together FOX's premium content and advertising capabilities with Roku's consumer interface, home screen, platform technology and direct viewer relationships to enhance content discovery, deepen engagement and create a more compelling streaming experience for consumers and content partners.

  • Enhances long-term growth profile: Advances FOX's business mix toward high growth streaming and connected TV verticals and maintains a balanced mix across advertising and distribution businesses, while strengthening the combined company's long-term growth and financial profile and maintaining FOX's disciplined capital allocation approach.

In markets, Roku added about 2% in premarket trading, building on Friday's 20% gain. Fox shares were down about 10%.

Last Friday, Needham analyst Laura Martin raised her Roku price target to $170 from $140, "based on Roku's value to a larger company."

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 08:15

Anthropic Races To Defuse Trump's Fable 5 U.S. Export Curbs While Jefferies Sees New Headwind For China AI

Anthropic Races To Defuse Trump's Fable 5 U.S. Export Curbs While Jefferies Sees New Headwind For China AI

Anthropic's Fable/Mythos 5 ranks number one in the world for model intelligence, widening the US-China gap. The gap may widen further because of "anti-distillation" features, and the models are now under US export control, which has shuttered access to the advanced models.

Late Friday, the US government banned foreign governments, companies, and individuals from using Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models after researchers at Amazon demonstrated to the Trump administration that some safeguards on Fable could be circumvented.

People familiar with what's happening inside the Trump administration told The Wall Street Journal that Anthropic sent top officials to the White House and held calls to resolve software vulnerabilities, including the alleged ability to 'jailbreak' the model.

Anthropic's top security staff, including Nicholas Carlini, Logan Graham, and Dave Orr, were sent to Washington on Saturday to speak with senior US officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The move by the frontier AI lab aims to resolve vulnerabilities exposed by Amazon researchers.

More color from WSJ:

People close to the company and the administration said both parties are interested in resolving the issue and restoring access to the cutting-edge models, but it isn't clear what a solution would entail.

Anthropic technical experts and government security researchers coming together was seen by some administration officials as a key step toward a compromise.

The weekend discussions continue months of tension between the administration and one of America's leading AI labs over how new, cutting-edge technologies are used and regulated. The Trump administration has recently taken more steps to control the fast-evolving industry.

A Sunday letter by cybersecurity experts urged the Trump administration to lift the restrictions on the models, warning that such a move could hurt U.S. cyber defenses, create market uncertainty, and weaken America's AI leadership.

However, Jefferies analysts said quite the opposite, noting that "anti-distillation" features and US export control, "which could make it harder for open-source (Chinese) models to catch up."

"US models are improving at a faster pace likely due to compute advantage, but anti- distillation and US export control are new negatives for China AI," the analysts said. 

More from Jefferies:

Open-source models (mostly Chinese) may find it harder to improve given new anti- distillation features and US export control. More importantly, Anthropic introduced anti- distillation features on Fable 5. If Fable 5 detects suspicious distillation activities, it would downgrade the model to Opus 4.8 and notify users. While this seems to be targeting Chinese AI development, we believe this would set back open source progress if all closed-source model developers follow suit. Moreover, the US has imposed emergency export control on Fable 5, barring foreigners from using them (including foreign employees of US companies), given loopholes in the cybersecurity safeguards. However, since Anthropic has no tools to limit the use to US nationals only (ie, ID checks?), it has suspended both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 globally until it could come up with a way to enforce that export control.

Polymarket

Did the Trump administration overreact to Amazon's findings about Fable 5? Or is it really about slowing China's open source model progress?

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 07:45

Anthropic Races To Defuse Trump's Fable 5 U.S. Export Curbs While Jefferies Sees New Headwind For China AI

Anthropic Races To Defuse Trump's Fable 5 U.S. Export Curbs While Jefferies Sees New Headwind For China AI

Anthropic's Fable/Mythos 5 ranks number one in the world for model intelligence, widening the US-China gap. The gap may widen further because of "anti-distillation" features, and the models are now under US export control, which has shuttered access to the advanced models.

Late Friday, the US government banned foreign governments, companies, and individuals from using Anthropic's Fable 5 and Mythos 5 models after researchers at Amazon demonstrated to the Trump administration that some safeguards on Fable could be circumvented.

People familiar with what's happening inside the Trump administration told The Wall Street Journal that Anthropic sent top officials to the White House and held calls to resolve software vulnerabilities, including the alleged ability to 'jailbreak' the model.

Anthropic's top security staff, including Nicholas Carlini, Logan Graham, and Dave Orr, were sent to Washington on Saturday to speak with senior US officials, including Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, National Cyber Director Sean Cairncross, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The move by the frontier AI lab aims to resolve vulnerabilities exposed by Amazon researchers.

More color from WSJ:

People close to the company and the administration said both parties are interested in resolving the issue and restoring access to the cutting-edge models, but it isn't clear what a solution would entail.

Anthropic technical experts and government security researchers coming together was seen by some administration officials as a key step toward a compromise.

The weekend discussions continue months of tension between the administration and one of America's leading AI labs over how new, cutting-edge technologies are used and regulated. The Trump administration has recently taken more steps to control the fast-evolving industry.

A Sunday letter by cybersecurity experts urged the Trump administration to lift the restrictions on the models, warning that such a move could hurt U.S. cyber defenses, create market uncertainty, and weaken America's AI leadership.

However, Jefferies analysts said quite the opposite, noting that "anti-distillation" features and US export control, "which could make it harder for open-source (Chinese) models to catch up."

"US models are improving at a faster pace likely due to compute advantage, but anti- distillation and US export control are new negatives for China AI," the analysts said. 

More from Jefferies:

Open-source models (mostly Chinese) may find it harder to improve given new anti- distillation features and US export control. More importantly, Anthropic introduced anti- distillation features on Fable 5. If Fable 5 detects suspicious distillation activities, it would downgrade the model to Opus 4.8 and notify users. While this seems to be targeting Chinese AI development, we believe this would set back open source progress if all closed-source model developers follow suit. Moreover, the US has imposed emergency export control on Fable 5, barring foreigners from using them (including foreign employees of US companies), given loopholes in the cybersecurity safeguards. However, since Anthropic has no tools to limit the use to US nationals only (ie, ID checks?), it has suspended both Fable 5 and Mythos 5 globally until it could come up with a way to enforce that export control.

Polymarket

Did the Trump administration overreact to Amazon's findings about Fable 5? Or is it really about slowing China's open source model progress?

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 07:45

Anduril CEO Urges U.S. Arms Export Reset To Become World's Gun Store

Anduril CEO Urges U.S. Arms Export Reset To Become World's Gun Store

Anduril founder Palmer Luckey has called for critical resets across defense procurement, manufacturing, innovation, and national identity.

Luckey's defense startup, valued at over $60 billion, is one of the key forces reshaping America's military power through low-cost, automated systems that can be manufactured and reproduced at scale, from autonomous weapons and AI fighter jets to drones for the modern battlefield.

America's hollowed-out industrial base is being rebuilt through President Trump's reshoring push and other domestic policies designed to expand the war economy. This leads us to the latest comments from Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf.

Schimpf spoke with the Financial Times about the urgent need for a "reset" of America's strict arms-export regime to make it easier for allied nations to produce and deploy U.S. weapons.

"There is an 'export control reset that needs to happen,' with other countries contributing to the total supply," Schimpf said in the interview.

Schimpf said Cold War-era International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) are slowing the West's ability to mass-produce low-cost weapons at scale. Simply put, ITAR determines who can receive U.S. weapons, military software, technical data, and know-how, and under what conditions.

He noted that the "ability to produce is probably the biggest deterrent gap that we have as a Western alliance, and having nations contribute to that—not just buying, but actually participating in production—is actually a very good thing."

Schimpf added that producing U.S.-origin weapons abroad could benefit allies, as they could tailor them to their own needs.

The problem that Anduril appears to be identifying is that maintaining America's military edge over the decades relied on tightly controlling the flow of weapons and technical data abroad. But in the era of low-cost drones, ground-bots, and AI kill chains, those same systems have become a bottleneck, limiting allied co-production, slowing deployment, and weakening the West's ability to ramp up production and ship at wartime scale.

Schimpf told FT that there have been emerging signals of openness for an "export-control reset" in the Trump administration. President Trump announced plans in February to reset the arms trade regime.

This comes as Luckey recently told CBS News' Bari Weiss that America must become "the world's gun store."

It also comes as Anduril has begun initial production activity in Ohio, starting with its Fury high-speed combat drone at the Arsenal-1 site near Columbus, and is considering a European Arsenal-2 facility as it expands overseas.

The wars stretching across Eurasia and the Middle East, from Ukraine and Russia to the U.S. and Iran, have drawn down critical Western weapons stockpiles to dangerously low levels. There is now an urgent need to rebuild stockpiles of critical weapons while adding new stockpiles of emerging systems, such as one-way attack drones, loitering munitions, and other next-generation weapons

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 06:55

Anduril CEO Urges U.S. Arms Export Reset To Become World's Gun Store

Anduril CEO Urges U.S. Arms Export Reset To Become World's Gun Store

Anduril founder Palmer Luckey has called for critical resets across defense procurement, manufacturing, innovation, and national identity.

Luckey's defense startup, valued at over $60 billion, is one of the key forces reshaping America's military power through low-cost, automated systems that can be manufactured and reproduced at scale, from autonomous weapons and AI fighter jets to drones for the modern battlefield.

America's hollowed-out industrial base is being rebuilt through President Trump's reshoring push and other domestic policies designed to expand the war economy. This leads us to the latest comments from Anduril CEO Brian Schimpf.

Schimpf spoke with the Financial Times about the urgent need for a "reset" of America's strict arms-export regime to make it easier for allied nations to produce and deploy U.S. weapons.

"There is an 'export control reset that needs to happen,' with other countries contributing to the total supply," Schimpf said in the interview.

Schimpf said Cold War-era International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR) are slowing the West's ability to mass-produce low-cost weapons at scale. Simply put, ITAR determines who can receive U.S. weapons, military software, technical data, and know-how, and under what conditions.

He noted that the "ability to produce is probably the biggest deterrent gap that we have as a Western alliance, and having nations contribute to that—not just buying, but actually participating in production—is actually a very good thing."

Schimpf added that producing U.S.-origin weapons abroad could benefit allies, as they could tailor them to their own needs.

The problem that Anduril appears to be identifying is that maintaining America's military edge over the decades relied on tightly controlling the flow of weapons and technical data abroad. But in the era of low-cost drones, ground-bots, and AI kill chains, those same systems have become a bottleneck, limiting allied co-production, slowing deployment, and weakening the West's ability to ramp up production and ship at wartime scale.

Schimpf told FT that there have been emerging signals of openness for an "export-control reset" in the Trump administration. President Trump announced plans in February to reset the arms trade regime.

This comes as Luckey recently told CBS News' Bari Weiss that America must become "the world's gun store."

It also comes as Anduril has begun initial production activity in Ohio, starting with its Fury high-speed combat drone at the Arsenal-1 site near Columbus, and is considering a European Arsenal-2 facility as it expands overseas.

The wars stretching across Eurasia and the Middle East, from Ukraine and Russia to the U.S. and Iran, have drawn down critical Western weapons stockpiles to dangerously low levels. There is now an urgent need to rebuild stockpiles of critical weapons while adding new stockpiles of emerging systems, such as one-way attack drones, loitering munitions, and other next-generation weapons

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 06:55

Trump Says Hormuz To Reopen Friday After Signing Of "Great Peace Deal" With Iran

Trump Says Hormuz To Reopen Friday After Signing Of "Great Peace Deal" With Iran Summary

  • Trump Says Hormuz Chokepoint Reopens Friday

  • Pakistan PM Confirms Peace Deal, with a signing event in Switzerland next Friday

  • Trump Confirms US-Iran Peace Deal "Now Complete" and says "Let The Oil Flow" 

  • Iran's president issues pro-MoU signing statement as Tehran is boasting of great and solid results for its side. There are reports this includes a significant release of billions in its frozen assets in the West.

  • White House still suggesting an electronic MoU deal to be signed with Iran on Sunday, which leaves nuclear negotiations to further date, only with commitment that Iran not pursue a nuke.

  • Trump: new strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs "should not have happened" and given it was on "a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran.

  • "A draft of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding included diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran & the release of $25b of Iran’s frozen assets" (Reuters).

  • Iranian statements characteristically cautious: Fars News Agency reported earlier that Iran has not made a final call on a potential MOU with the U.S. Iranian authorities are still reviewing the political, legal, and technical details.

Polymarket

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 39% · No 62%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump Says Hormuz Chokepoint Reopens On Friday

"This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region. Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. The Leaders of the Region have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace. With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!" Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

The timing of the peace deal is critical. The world was approaching a dangerous energy cliff, with strategic petroleum reserves being quickly drained to offset lost Gulf production and stabilize physical markets. Still, even with a deal in place, energy flows through the strategic maritime chokepoint will not normalize overnight.

It will likely take several months, if not quarters, to clear the backlog, restore shipping confidence, de-risk insurance markets, and bring regional production and export flows back to pre-crisis levels. As for damaged energy assets such as those in Qatar, it'll take years to get production back to pre-war levels.

Polymarket odds of a permanent US-Iran deal are surging. 

Deal Confirmed By Trump, Pakistan PM, Just Ahead Of NY Futures Opening

Just 30 minutes before futures open in New York, President Trump announced on Truth Social that a "Deal" with Iran is now complete.

"Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" Trump said.

Pakistan's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, also confirmed: "that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED."

Sharif said, "The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland."

Israeli journalist and Iran affairs correspondent/analyst for Israel's Channel 14 reports that hardliners in Iran, including IRGC forces, will not derail the peace deal.

With futures in New York set to open momentarily, and with Brent and WTI contracts likely to panic-dump while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures catch a bid, crypto is soaring to the moon.

S&P500 Futs up about 1%

WTI Futs tumbling to $81 a barrel level.

Earlier, Jefferies analyst David Zervos noted, "I remain hopeful on the Iran front and, when we see resolution, that oil will drop below $60 and we go back to pricing in cuts, with Fed balance sheet reduction in the spotlight. I am confident we will be bouncing around with 8 handles on SPOOs, and eying 9s in '27/'28."

Iran's President Pezeshkian Cites Solid Results For Iran As MoU Signing Could Be Just Hours Away: Rare Optimism From Both Sides

It seems like a deal will really happen this time... finally... given Tehran is boasting of great and solid results for its side. There are reports this includes a significant release of billions in its frozen assets in the West.

via Fars News:

  • Recent diplomatic efforts have yielded positive results.
  • Recent developments have shown that no country cares more about Iran's interests than ourselves
  • Even if my personal opinion differs, I consider myself obliged to follow the final decision of the system
  • Resolution of the Supreme National Security Council is the basis of action, and whatever is approved and deemed appropriate by the Supreme Leader will be mandatory for all of us.
  • I regret the neighboring countries being exposed to the consequences of military actions. Our operation targeted the US bases on the soil of these countries.
  • Issues and misunderstandings with Gulf countries are being resolved
  • Ties with Gulf region countries are on path to improvement.
  • Talks do not mean abandoning principles. Iran won't bow to any kind of bullying or illegal pressure.
  • Media reports on war, negotiations do not necessarily reflect Supreme National Security Council views.

Fox News, citing President Trump, says deal could be signed in Next 2-3 Hours:

Israeli Strike on Beirut Once Again Threatens MoU Signing: Trump says "Let's Not Blow It"

President Trump on Truth Social has sought to brush back the Israeli Sunday strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, saying this morning's attack "should not have happened" and given it was on "a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran.

He emphasized, "We are very close to a Deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon, and all sides should stand down." He warned not just Israel against more attacks, but said Hezbollah must refrain, after the Iran-aligned Shia group sent more projectiles on northern Israel. "This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace" he said, and added "let's not blow it."

Lebanon's civil defense agency has indicated that the new attacks on Beirut's southern suburbs killed at least three people. "The bodies of three martyrs were recovered from under the rubble and six wounded," the agency announced in a statement.

Iran Weighs In on Anticipated MoU Signing Details, Potential Unresolved Issues

Bloomberg and Reuters are reporting Sunday some fresh details on Iran's version of what the MoU to be signed - which President Trump says will happen today (albeit remotely) will inlcude.

"A draft of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding included diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran and the release of $25b of Iran’s frozen assets, Reuters reports citing a senior Iran official it didn’t identify," writes Bloomberg in the latest. This includes:

  • Final deal to be discussed in the 60 days following agreement by the two sides
  • Also includes Iran immediately reopening Hormuz Strait to all commercial vessels and US lifting its naval blockade
  • Tehran in draft agrees ⁠that will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons
  • To maintain the nuclear status quo until final deal is ⁠reached, including by not enriching uranium and not expanding nuclear facilities

One potential major complication to the two sides actually signing is what's happening in the Beirut suburbs, which the Israeli Air Force has just struck for the first time in about a week:

Provocative Israeli military actions previously effectively torpedoed prior Washington-Tehran attempts to get back to the negotiating table. Will the same hold-up happen again?

Pro-Israel supporters and lobbyists in the US have been raging against what they see as a 'failure' of a deal, and 'capitulation' to Iran on kicking the can on the nuclear issue... not least among them is on display in the following:

The usual caveats which proved all prior 'deal imminent' headlines to be premature and wishful thinking still apply. Some latest from Iranian state media according to Al Jazeera:

Iran’s Fars news agency, citing a source close to the negotiating team, is reporting that Iranian officials were discussing the ceasefire points with the Qatari mediators in Tehran.

The report added that the deal is yet to be finalised and “no agreement will definitely be signed at the time Trump announced”.

The comments were made to the agency prior to Israel’s deadly attacks on Lebanon’s southern suburbs today.

Sunday Iran Deal (or rather: MoU Remote Signing) Expected Sunday, per Trump

President Trump said Saturday that an interim U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and wind down the four-month conflict could be signed as soon as Sunday. However, Tehran has pushed back on that timeline, signaling that no final decision has been made while Iranian officials continue to review the terms of a potential memorandum of understanding.

"The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL," Trump said in a Truth Social post on Saturday, while claiming that Iran "no longer wants a Nuclear weapon."

The president continued, "At the appropriate time, when all is calm, we will go in and get the Nuclear Dust, buried deep under the powerful sunken granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B-2 Bombers and their brilliant pilots, and downblend and destroy it, whether in Iran, or the United States."

Pakistan and Qatar are mediating, with technical talks expected to follow any signing and last up to 60 days. The MOU is structured as a step-by-step framework, meaning the Hormuz maritime chokepoint will reopen first, followed by economic rewards for Iran as conditions are met.

Pakistan's Sharif Says Deal Imminent; Iran's Statements More Cautious

Pakistan, which has served as one of the mediators, is preparing to sign the peace deal electronically, followed by technical-level talks next week, according to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. He said those talks would last two months and focus on Iran's nuclear program.

Meanwhile, the Iranian media outlet Fars News Agency reported earlier that Iran has not made a final call on a potential MOU with the U.S. Iranian authorities are still reviewing the political, legal, and technical details, with no final decision announced as of Sunday morning.

The urgency behind securing an MOU to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint is clear: the world is drifting dangerously close toward an energy cliff. Strategic petroleum reserves are being drawn down rapidly around the world to offset the loss of Gulf production, while China's weakening fuel demand is helping to offset some of the broader supply shock.

Related:

• What If The Strait Of Hormuz Never Fully Reopens

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear Friday that Iran understands that terms related to its nuclear program will be finalized within 60 days of the initial agreement being signed. So in essence, this means Iran could get its wish of pushing nuclear negotiations back, only after the hot conflict has clearly ended. Iran has long sought to separate the issues of a final end to the war from consideration of its nuclear program.

Energy markets priced in de-escalation last week, with Brent crude futures sliding as much as  5.1% Friday and European gas dropped as much as 8.4% after Trump canceled planned new strikes on Iran.

IG's weekend markets are pricing in a 50 bps decline in Brent crude when futures open on Sunday evening.

But throughput traffic through the Hormuz chokepoint remains far below pre-war levels, and a vessel was struck off Oman on Saturday. Normalization could take weeks, if not many months.

Bloomberg noted, "Roughly 140 ships passed through the narrow chokepoint each day before the conflict erupted."

Here are the latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

US-Iran Deal Progress

• Trump said on Saturday that a deal with Iran is scheduled to be signed on Sunday, claiming the Hormuz Strait will open immediately after signing and that Iran no longer wants nuclear weapons

• Iran contradicted Trump's timeline, saying it is still reviewing the text and hasn't announced a final decision, with authorities conducting a detailed assessment of political, legal, and technical dimensions

• Pakistan said on Saturday that an interim deal could be finalized within 24 hours and is preparing for electronic signing immediately after, followed by technical level talks next week

• A senior US official said on Friday there was an 80% or 85% chance an agreement gets signed soon, though some Iranian hardliners still want to kill any breakthrough

Draft Deal Terms

• According to a senior Iran official, the draft memorandum includes diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran and the release of $25 billion of Iran's frozen assets

• The draft includes Iran immediately reopening the Hormuz Strait to all commercial vessels and the US lifting its naval blockade

• Tehran agrees in the draft that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons

• The draft includes a US oil sanctions waiver for Iran

• The final deal will be discussed in the 60 days following agreement by the two sides

• A central element is a step-by-step approach with the Strait of Hormuz reopened followed by Tehran getting economic rewards each time it meets US demands

Regional Tensions

• The Israeli military announced on Sunday it launched strikes on Beirut targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, with Netanyahu's office saying the strikes were in response to Hezbollah attacks in northern Israel

• When Israel last struck the Beirut suburbs a week ago, Iran responded with attacks

• US Central Command said on Saturday it shot down Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with India's External Affairs Minister on Saturday after US strikes left three Indian mariners dead, stressing that all commercial vessels should immediately comply with orders from US forces

Nuclear Program Developments

• According to five sources familiar with US intelligence, Iran has sealed off its cache of near-bomb grade uranium and placed explosive mines near entrances to the site in recent weeks, making attempts to remove the uranium far riskier

Financial Arrangements

• The UAE has agreed to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, with four sources telling Reuters the total was $10 billion, more than $3 billion of which had already been delivered, though two other sources put the total at $20 billion

• The UAE denied reports on the Iran funds transfer, specifically denying allegations concerning $3 billion

Diplomatic Activity

• Trump will meet with leaders of France, Qatar, the UAE, Egypt and India at the G7 summit in France, underscoring the outsized role the war in Iran continues to play

Khamenei Burial Plans

• Ali Khamenei, Iran's former supreme leader killed in US-Israeli air strikes on February 28, is set to be buried at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad on July 9, with public funeral ceremonies in Tehran and Qom in preceding days

Saturday's Iran Wrap

• President Trump Says Iran Peace Deal To Be Signed Sunday, Will Open Strait To All

Polymarket

//--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Yes 43% · No 57%
View full market & trade on Polymarket //--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Yes 69% · No 32%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

"Any deal that kicks the can down the road on the most critical issues and is conditions-based would put the US and Iran exactly where they've been: a fragile ceasefire in name only that is routinely tested and prone to violence," said Becca Wasser, defense lead for Bloomberg Economics.

One can only hope that an MOU, and eventually a credible path toward a real peace deal, is something Tehran actually follows. What was initially sold as a quick war by the Trump administration has now dragged on into its fourth month. Early in the conflict, the administration's view was that the Hormuz chokepoint would not be sealed shut, yet that is exactly what happened. Since then, the conflict has turned into a giant game of Shahed drone whack-a-mole with the Iranians. The Trump team needs this conflict resolved quickly, not only to prevent another wave of inflationary pressure in energy markets and avert the world from sliding into an energy cliff, but also to repair the political optics ahead of the midterms.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 06:40

Trump Says Hormuz To Reopen Friday After Signing Of "Great Peace Deal" With Iran

Trump Says Hormuz To Reopen Friday After Signing Of "Great Peace Deal" With Iran Summary

  • Trump Says Hormuz Chokepoint Reopens Friday

  • Pakistan PM Confirms Peace Deal, with a signing event in Switzerland next Friday

  • Trump Confirms US-Iran Peace Deal "Now Complete" and says "Let The Oil Flow" 

  • Iran's president issues pro-MoU signing statement as Tehran is boasting of great and solid results for its side. There are reports this includes a significant release of billions in its frozen assets in the West.

  • White House still suggesting an electronic MoU deal to be signed with Iran on Sunday, which leaves nuclear negotiations to further date, only with commitment that Iran not pursue a nuke.

  • Trump: new strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs "should not have happened" and given it was on "a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran.

  • "A draft of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding included diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran & the release of $25b of Iran’s frozen assets" (Reuters).

  • Iranian statements characteristically cautious: Fars News Agency reported earlier that Iran has not made a final call on a potential MOU with the U.S. Iranian authorities are still reviewing the political, legal, and technical details.

Polymarket

//--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Yes 39% · No 62%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

*  *  *

Trump Says Hormuz Chokepoint Reopens On Friday

"This Great Deal will bring Peace and Security to the whole Region. Many presidents have tried to make Peace with Iran, and all have failed before me. The Leaders of the Region have, for the first time, found a President who can help them achieve real Peace. With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!" Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

The timing of the peace deal is critical. The world was approaching a dangerous energy cliff, with strategic petroleum reserves being quickly drained to offset lost Gulf production and stabilize physical markets. Still, even with a deal in place, energy flows through the strategic maritime chokepoint will not normalize overnight.

It will likely take several months, if not quarters, to clear the backlog, restore shipping confidence, de-risk insurance markets, and bring regional production and export flows back to pre-crisis levels. As for damaged energy assets such as those in Qatar, it'll take years to get production back to pre-war levels.

Polymarket odds of a permanent US-Iran deal are surging. 

Deal Confirmed By Trump, Pakistan PM, Just Ahead Of NY Futures Opening

Just 30 minutes before futures open in New York, President Trump announced on Truth Social that a "Deal" with Iran is now complete.

"Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!" Trump said.

Pakistan's prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, also confirmed: "that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED."

Sharif said, "The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland."

Israeli journalist and Iran affairs correspondent/analyst for Israel's Channel 14 reports that hardliners in Iran, including IRGC forces, will not derail the peace deal.

With futures in New York set to open momentarily, and with Brent and WTI contracts likely to panic-dump while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures catch a bid, crypto is soaring to the moon.

S&P500 Futs up about 1%

WTI Futs tumbling to $81 a barrel level.

Earlier, Jefferies analyst David Zervos noted, "I remain hopeful on the Iran front and, when we see resolution, that oil will drop below $60 and we go back to pricing in cuts, with Fed balance sheet reduction in the spotlight. I am confident we will be bouncing around with 8 handles on SPOOs, and eying 9s in '27/'28."

Iran's President Pezeshkian Cites Solid Results For Iran As MoU Signing Could Be Just Hours Away: Rare Optimism From Both Sides

It seems like a deal will really happen this time... finally... given Tehran is boasting of great and solid results for its side. There are reports this includes a significant release of billions in its frozen assets in the West.

via Fars News:

  • Recent diplomatic efforts have yielded positive results.
  • Recent developments have shown that no country cares more about Iran's interests than ourselves
  • Even if my personal opinion differs, I consider myself obliged to follow the final decision of the system
  • Resolution of the Supreme National Security Council is the basis of action, and whatever is approved and deemed appropriate by the Supreme Leader will be mandatory for all of us.
  • I regret the neighboring countries being exposed to the consequences of military actions. Our operation targeted the US bases on the soil of these countries.
  • Issues and misunderstandings with Gulf countries are being resolved
  • Ties with Gulf region countries are on path to improvement.
  • Talks do not mean abandoning principles. Iran won't bow to any kind of bullying or illegal pressure.
  • Media reports on war, negotiations do not necessarily reflect Supreme National Security Council views.

Fox News, citing President Trump, says deal could be signed in Next 2-3 Hours:

Israeli Strike on Beirut Once Again Threatens MoU Signing: Trump says "Let's Not Blow It"

President Trump on Truth Social has sought to brush back the Israeli Sunday strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs, saying this morning's attack "should not have happened" and given it was on "a special day when we are so close to a Peace Deal with Iran.

He emphasized, "We are very close to a Deal that will bring peace to the region, including to Lebanon, and all sides should stand down." He warned not just Israel against more attacks, but said Hezbollah must refrain, after the Iran-aligned Shia group sent more projectiles on northern Israel. "This could be the beginning of a long and beautiful peace" he said, and added "let's not blow it."

Lebanon's civil defense agency has indicated that the new attacks on Beirut's southern suburbs killed at least three people. "The bodies of three martyrs were recovered from under the rubble and six wounded," the agency announced in a statement.

Iran Weighs In on Anticipated MoU Signing Details, Potential Unresolved Issues

Bloomberg and Reuters are reporting Sunday some fresh details on Iran's version of what the MoU to be signed - which President Trump says will happen today (albeit remotely) will inlcude.

"A draft of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding included diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran and the release of $25b of Iran’s frozen assets, Reuters reports citing a senior Iran official it didn’t identify," writes Bloomberg in the latest. This includes:

  • Final deal to be discussed in the 60 days following agreement by the two sides
  • Also includes Iran immediately reopening Hormuz Strait to all commercial vessels and US lifting its naval blockade
  • Tehran in draft agrees ⁠that will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons
  • To maintain the nuclear status quo until final deal is ⁠reached, including by not enriching uranium and not expanding nuclear facilities

One potential major complication to the two sides actually signing is what's happening in the Beirut suburbs, which the Israeli Air Force has just struck for the first time in about a week:

Provocative Israeli military actions previously effectively torpedoed prior Washington-Tehran attempts to get back to the negotiating table. Will the same hold-up happen again?

Pro-Israel supporters and lobbyists in the US have been raging against what they see as a 'failure' of a deal, and 'capitulation' to Iran on kicking the can on the nuclear issue... not least among them is on display in the following:

The usual caveats which proved all prior 'deal imminent' headlines to be premature and wishful thinking still apply. Some latest from Iranian state media according to Al Jazeera:

Iran’s Fars news agency, citing a source close to the negotiating team, is reporting that Iranian officials were discussing the ceasefire points with the Qatari mediators in Tehran.

The report added that the deal is yet to be finalised and “no agreement will definitely be signed at the time Trump announced”.

The comments were made to the agency prior to Israel’s deadly attacks on Lebanon’s southern suburbs today.

Sunday Iran Deal (or rather: MoU Remote Signing) Expected Sunday, per Trump

President Trump said Saturday that an interim U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and wind down the four-month conflict could be signed as soon as Sunday. However, Tehran has pushed back on that timeline, signaling that no final decision has been made while Iranian officials continue to review the terms of a potential memorandum of understanding.

"The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL," Trump said in a Truth Social post on Saturday, while claiming that Iran "no longer wants a Nuclear weapon."

The president continued, "At the appropriate time, when all is calm, we will go in and get the Nuclear Dust, buried deep under the powerful sunken granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B-2 Bombers and their brilliant pilots, and downblend and destroy it, whether in Iran, or the United States."

Pakistan and Qatar are mediating, with technical talks expected to follow any signing and last up to 60 days. The MOU is structured as a step-by-step framework, meaning the Hormuz maritime chokepoint will reopen first, followed by economic rewards for Iran as conditions are met.

Pakistan's Sharif Says Deal Imminent; Iran's Statements More Cautious

Pakistan, which has served as one of the mediators, is preparing to sign the peace deal electronically, followed by technical-level talks next week, according to Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. He said those talks would last two months and focus on Iran's nuclear program.

Meanwhile, the Iranian media outlet Fars News Agency reported earlier that Iran has not made a final call on a potential MOU with the U.S. Iranian authorities are still reviewing the political, legal, and technical details, with no final decision announced as of Sunday morning.

The urgency behind securing an MOU to reopen the Hormuz chokepoint is clear: the world is drifting dangerously close toward an energy cliff. Strategic petroleum reserves are being drawn down rapidly around the world to offset the loss of Gulf production, while China's weakening fuel demand is helping to offset some of the broader supply shock.

Related:

• What If The Strait Of Hormuz Never Fully Reopens

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear Friday that Iran understands that terms related to its nuclear program will be finalized within 60 days of the initial agreement being signed. So in essence, this means Iran could get its wish of pushing nuclear negotiations back, only after the hot conflict has clearly ended. Iran has long sought to separate the issues of a final end to the war from consideration of its nuclear program.

Energy markets priced in de-escalation last week, with Brent crude futures sliding as much as  5.1% Friday and European gas dropped as much as 8.4% after Trump canceled planned new strikes on Iran.

IG's weekend markets are pricing in a 50 bps decline in Brent crude when futures open on Sunday evening.

But throughput traffic through the Hormuz chokepoint remains far below pre-war levels, and a vessel was struck off Oman on Saturday. Normalization could take weeks, if not many months.

Bloomberg noted, "Roughly 140 ships passed through the narrow chokepoint each day before the conflict erupted."

Here are the latest overnight headlines (courtesy of Bloomberg):

US-Iran Deal Progress

• Trump said on Saturday that a deal with Iran is scheduled to be signed on Sunday, claiming the Hormuz Strait will open immediately after signing and that Iran no longer wants nuclear weapons

• Iran contradicted Trump's timeline, saying it is still reviewing the text and hasn't announced a final decision, with authorities conducting a detailed assessment of political, legal, and technical dimensions

• Pakistan said on Saturday that an interim deal could be finalized within 24 hours and is preparing for electronic signing immediately after, followed by technical level talks next week

• A senior US official said on Friday there was an 80% or 85% chance an agreement gets signed soon, though some Iranian hardliners still want to kill any breakthrough

Draft Deal Terms

• According to a senior Iran official, the draft memorandum includes diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran and the release of $25 billion of Iran's frozen assets

• The draft includes Iran immediately reopening the Hormuz Strait to all commercial vessels and the US lifting its naval blockade

• Tehran agrees in the draft that it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons

• The draft includes a US oil sanctions waiver for Iran

• The final deal will be discussed in the 60 days following agreement by the two sides

• A central element is a step-by-step approach with the Strait of Hormuz reopened followed by Tehran getting economic rewards each time it meets US demands

Regional Tensions

• The Israeli military announced on Sunday it launched strikes on Beirut targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, with Netanyahu's office saying the strikes were in response to Hezbollah attacks in northern Israel

• When Israel last struck the Beirut suburbs a week ago, Iran responded with attacks

• US Central Command said on Saturday it shot down Iranian drones near the Strait of Hormuz

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with India's External Affairs Minister on Saturday after US strikes left three Indian mariners dead, stressing that all commercial vessels should immediately comply with orders from US forces

Nuclear Program Developments

• According to five sources familiar with US intelligence, Iran has sealed off its cache of near-bomb grade uranium and placed explosive mines near entrances to the site in recent weeks, making attempts to remove the uranium far riskier

Financial Arrangements

• The UAE has agreed to unlock billions of dollars for Iran, with four sources telling Reuters the total was $10 billion, more than $3 billion of which had already been delivered, though two other sources put the total at $20 billion

• The UAE denied reports on the Iran funds transfer, specifically denying allegations concerning $3 billion

Diplomatic Activity

• Trump will meet with leaders of France, Qatar, the UAE, Egypt and India at the G7 summit in France, underscoring the outsized role the war in Iran continues to play

Khamenei Burial Plans

• Ali Khamenei, Iran's former supreme leader killed in US-Israeli air strikes on February 28, is set to be buried at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad on July 9, with public funeral ceremonies in Tehran and Qom in preceding days

Saturday's Iran Wrap

• President Trump Says Iran Peace Deal To Be Signed Sunday, Will Open Strait To All

Polymarket

//--> //--> Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
Yes 43% · No 57%
View full market & trade on Polymarket //--> //--> US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?
Yes 69% · No 32%
View full market & trade on Polymarket

"Any deal that kicks the can down the road on the most critical issues and is conditions-based would put the US and Iran exactly where they've been: a fragile ceasefire in name only that is routinely tested and prone to violence," said Becca Wasser, defense lead for Bloomberg Economics.

One can only hope that an MOU, and eventually a credible path toward a real peace deal, is something Tehran actually follows. What was initially sold as a quick war by the Trump administration has now dragged on into its fourth month. Early in the conflict, the administration's view was that the Hormuz chokepoint would not be sealed shut, yet that is exactly what happened. Since then, the conflict has turned into a giant game of Shahed drone whack-a-mole with the Iranians. The Trump team needs this conflict resolved quickly, not only to prevent another wave of inflationary pressure in energy markets and avert the world from sliding into an energy cliff, but also to repair the political optics ahead of the midterms.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 06:40

Watch: Korean Humanoid Robot Performs Viral K-POP Dance, Learns By Watching Videos

Watch: Korean Humanoid Robot Performs Viral K-POP Dance, Learns By Watching Videos

Authored by Jijo Malayil via Interesting Engineering,

While China dominates humanoid robotics headlines, a Korean firm showcased a humanoid learning complex motions through an open-source AI framework.

AI Sapiens enables a complete pipeline for imitation learning, covering data collection, training, and inference. ROBOTIS/YouTube

In a recent demonstration, ROBOTIS' AI Sapiens learned the famous CORTIS REDRED Challenge motion using only smartphone video, eliminating the need for professional motion-capture systems.

The process combined video-based motion capture, motion retargeting, simulation-based reinforcement learning, and Sim2Real transfer.

According to the firm, the demonstration highlights how open-source tools can simplify humanoid robot training, enabling users to generate, learn, and execute full-body motions more easily.

Humanoid Learns Motion

ROBOTIS has demonstrated the capabilities of its AI Sapiens humanoid robot, an open-source platform for physical AI powered by DYNAMIXEL-Q actuators. The project is designed to make humanoid robot motion learning more accessible by using widely available hardware and open-source software tools.

In the demonstration, AI Sapiens learns and performs a complex full-body motion known as the CORTIS REDRED Challenge. Instead of relying on expensive professional motion-capture systems, the robot learns the movement from video recorded using a standard smartphone camera. This significantly reduces the cost and complexity of collecting training data for humanoid robots.

The motion-learning process begins with video-based motion capture. Human movements recorded on a smartphone are converted into digital motion data that can be processed by software. The captured motions are then passed through a motion retargeting stage, where the human movements are adapted to match the physical structure and joint limitations of the humanoid robot.

After retargeting, the robot is trained in a simulation environment using reinforcement learning. During this stage, the AI repeatedly practices the motion in a virtual world, allowing it to improve balance, coordination, and movement accuracy without risking damage to physical hardware. Simulation training also enables rapid testing and optimization before deploying the motion to the real robot.

Once training is complete, the learned behavior is transferred from simulation to the physical AI Sapiens robot through a Sim2Real pipeline. This process helps ensure that motions developed in the virtual environment can be executed successfully in the real world, despite differences between the simulation and the physical hardware.

Accessible AI Robotics

ROBOTIS plans to release the motion generation and learning pipeline as open-source software, giving researchers, developers, educators, and hobbyists access to the tools used in the demonstration. The goal is to lower barriers to humanoid robotics development and enable a wider community to experiment with motion learning and physical AI systems.

According to ROBOTIS, AI Sapiens is a fully open-source humanoid robot platform designed for physical AI research and development. Standing 1.3 meters tall and weighing 34 kilograms, the robot features 23 degrees of freedom across its body, enabling a wide range of human-like movements.

The platform is powered by 23 next-generation DYNAMIXEL-Q quasi-direct-drive (QDD) actuators, including 14 QM-060 units and 9 QM-080 units. These actuators combine low gear reduction ratios, high-torque motors, and integrated control electronics to deliver high backdrivability, low impedance, and precise torque control, making them suitable for dynamic and compliant humanoid motion.

AI Sapiens is powered by an NVIDIA Jetson Orin NX 16GB computer, delivering up to 100 TOPS of AI performance for advanced robotics tasks. It supports Wi-Fi 5, Bluetooth 5.0, dual Ethernet ports, USB connectivity, and 24V/12V power outputs for connecting additional hardware.

The robot is powered by a 46.8V, 9000mAh battery. It is supported by a fully open-source ecosystem that includes hardware bills of materials, CAD files, source code, simulation assets, and development tutorials, enabling researchers and developers to customize and expand the platform.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 06:30

Exposed: UK Govt Has A 'Thought Police' Unit To Control Mass Migration Narratives

Exposed: UK Govt Has A 'Thought Police' Unit To Control Mass Migration Narratives

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity,

A secretive Home Office propaganda outfit founded by a former MI6 officer is actively working to control narratives around incidents involving migrants and rising tensions, a bombshell report reveals.

The Research, Information and Communications Unit, or RICU, has been exposed advising police on how to portray protesters and intervening in the aftermath of brutal attacks by migrants to prevent statements that might inflame public anger over mass immigration failures.

This comes as fresh confirmation of suspicions raised after the attack on vulnerable special needs man Stephen Ogilvie in Belfast. Sources now confirm the unit's role in managing family liaison and messaging in such cases. The pattern fits a broader shift where government "nudge" operations once focused on enforcing COVID compliance have pivoted to shielding open borders policies from scrutiny - and are now being hardened into formal crisis powers.

The Daily Mail reports that RICU was set up in 2007 by the late Charles Farr, a former MI6 officer, under the Prevent counter-terrorism banner. It operates from Home Office headquarters and draws on tactics from the old Information Research Department, the post-war propaganda unit used to counter communist influence.

Its methods include planting media stories, deploying undercover operatives, and shaping online conversations in targeted communities.

Recent operations show the unit extending far beyond its original remit. During unrest in Belfast following the stabbing attack on Stephen Ogilvie by Sudanese asylum seeker Hadi Alodid, RICU worked with the Police Service of Northern Ireland's C3 intelligence unit.

A source described the effort: "They are working with the Police Service of Northern Ireland's C3 intelligence unit to identify those posting the online 'calls to protest' in Belfast and other areas, as well as giving strategic messages to the police to ensure that the protesters were portrayed as unsympathetic thugs, rather than activists, and effecting behavioural change."

The same source noted RICU's involvement with family statements in volatile incidents. "RICU made sure that the liaison team dealing with the family were well briefed." Another observation: "You can see their fingerprints all over the statements released by the families of victims in these volatile situations - they usually have a similar tone."

This aligns with what was noted right after the Belfast incident. The family statement released in the wake of the attack on Stephen Ogilvie came across as oddly generic and scripted, using placeholder phrasing such as "our loved one" and quickly pivoting from shock to calls for calm plus emphasis on migrants' contributions rather than raw, unfiltered grief or pointed questions about what had happened. It did not read like the spontaneous words of devastated relatives.

The Mail also notes that RICU was involved with the aftermath of the murder of Henry Nowak by Vickrum Digwa, again providing strategic input to police handling the family.

The interventions align with long-standing criticisms that RICU applies uneven standards. Sir William Shawcross, in his 2023 review of Prevent, observed: "The bar for what RICU includes on Islamism looks to be relatively high, whereas the bar for what is included on the extreme Right-wing is comparably low."

The unit has flagged mainstream cultural consumption - watching Michael Portillo's programmes, reading Shakespeare, Chaucer or Milton, or books documenting grooming gang scandals - as potential indicators of far-Right susceptibility. It even linked Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg to sympathetic audiences.

Professor Anthony Glees described the outfit's position: "The unit that produced this report is called RICU. It's based in the Home Office but it's in that kind of shadowy area between what the Home Office does and what the security service MI5 ought to be doing."

A Home Office spokesman offered the standard line: "RICU provides analysis on extremist use of propaganda and exploitation of the internet to inform the UK's counter terrorism system. We cannot comment on its operations."

The unit has pushed for expanded recording of non-crime hate incidents, measures later scrapped after public backlash over their chilling effect on ordinary speech. It has also claimed that discussion of grooming gangs in Pakistani communities is exploited by the far-Right to stir hatred.

This is not isolated activity. Government narrative management operations have multiplied. A 2025 examination detailed how teams such as the National Security and Online Information Team monitor "concerning narratives" on social media and flag material to platforms for removal, particularly content critical of migration policy during periods of unrest.

An elite police unit tracks anti-migrant posts. Officials stated they make "no apologies for flagging to platforms content which is contrary to their own terms of service and which can result in violent disorder on our streets."

The same infrastructure that once deployed propagandistic fear tactics to drive mass compliance during the COVID period has been repurposed. What began as emergency messaging around a virus has evolved into tools for managing public reaction to the consequences of sustained high immigration and associated crime.

We have also seen the Prevent apparatus targeted firmly at British people, and even children, who have expressed concern about mass migration.

This apparatus is also now being formalised and expanded under the banner of "crisis response." In the wake of the Belfast unrest sparked by the attack on Stephen Ogilvie, ministers have moved to give Ofcom sweeping new authority under the Online Safety Act to pressure platforms into rapid removal of content labelled "false information" or inciting disorder during declared crises.

Technology Secretary Liz Kendall announced the government will "lay in Parliament an update to the Online Safety Act requiring services to take quicker action to remove illegal content circulating during times of crisis."

Ofcom has already issued open letters to platforms citing spikes in content tied to the Northern Ireland events and demanding enhanced, crisis-specific moderation measures - without requiring fresh parliamentary approval.

The definition of "crisis" is deliberately broad, drawing on the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 and covering threats to welfare, security or public order. This builds directly on the informal narrative-shaping RICU has conducted for years, now also augmented by a new £115 million PoliceAI centre equipped with live facial recognition, predictive analytics and automated real-time content flagging.

Former Prime Minister Liz Truss directly addressed the underlying dynamic. She stated that mass migration "is being weaponised to undermine Western civilisation." Truss continued: "They want to undermine the family. They want to undermine the nation state. And people in Britain are saying 'we've had enough of this.'"

She added that institutions have been corrupted by a DEI mentality focused on group outcomes rather than equal treatment under law, with the response being suppression of discussion and attacks on those highlighting the role of mass migration.

The through-line is clear. Legitimate public concern over policy outcomes - crime rates, community cohesion, strained services - is reframed as dangerous extremism requiring state-managed behavioural change. Protesters become "thugs." Family grief is shaped into generic calls for calm that emphasise migrant contributions.

Online speech is monitored and throttled. Cultural touchstones are recast as radicalisation risks when they appear on the "wrong" side of the narrative. Now "crisis" declarations provide the trigger to accelerate these controls with regulator muscle and AI tools.

This apparatus operates with minimal transparency and little accountability to elected representatives or the public whose taxes fund it. Critics inside Whitehall have described it as out of control. Its expansion from countering Al Qaeda propaganda into domestic speech management on immigration - and now into codified crisis powers - represents a fundamental shift toward treating British citizens' unfiltered reactions as the primary threat.

Britain faces real pressures from decades of rapid demographic change and enforcement failures. Honest examination of those pressures does not equate to hatred. Suppressing that examination through coordinated narrative control only deepens distrust and guarantees that underlying problems fester.

Citizens retain the right to discuss the impacts of policy without state operatives scripting responses or directing police to rebrand dissent.

The revelations about RICU and the accelerating "Ministry of Truth" machinery confirm what many already sensed: the tools built for one set of emergencies have been turned inward to protect another set of political choices.

Restoring open debate and accountability requires dismantling these layers of managed perception and returning to straightforward governance that prioritises the security and cohesion of the existing population.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/15/2026 - 05:00

UBS Checks With Major Restaurant Franchisees Reveal Troubling Consumer Trends

UBS Checks With Major Restaurant Franchisees Reveal Troubling Consumer Trends

In a continuation of our note on the health of America's restaurant industry, we cite UBS analyst Dennis Geiger for a second straight week, as his coverage of the consumer and restaurant sectors has been spot on. Sentiment toward chain eateries remains "generally cautious," with macro pressures, elevated gas prices, and weak demand among lower-income consumers continuing to weigh on traffic and sales trends.

Last week, Geiger warned, "Challenged traffic and sales trends likely reflect depressed consumer sentiment across several cohorts, elevated gas prices, and other macro headwinds. We are more cautious on restaurant industry trends heading into 2H26, assuming near-term headwinds persist, rebate check benefits fade, and the risk that gas prices stay elevated."

Adding more color to the still-difficult backdrop across the restaurant industry, Geiger and his team held discussions with management teams from several leading restaurant brands to gain deeper insight into evolving consumer spending trends:

Brand & franchisee discussions highlight performance pressured by macroeconomic factors

Our latest discussions with several brands / mgmt teams and select franchisees highlight macro headwinds and elevated gas prices that continue to weigh on industry results. Select brands more exposed to lower income consumers continue to face sales pressures, with our recent discussions with Wingstop and McDonald's franchisees highlighting the current challenges:

1. Wingstop franchisees noted continued negative sss & traffic performance, highlighting multiple potential factors, including: i) ongoing macro pressures impacting key customer cohorts; ii) challenges of lapping robust sales growth in past years, including key sales initiatives such as delivery and marketing growth & expansion into sports; iii) potential customer chicken category fatigue given focus on chicken by most QSR peers as beef costs remain elevated; iv) cannibalization in select highly penetrated markets, particularly via the delivery channel; v) broader QSR value / promo activity; and vi) potentially less social media buzz recently than in years past. However, expectations are that trends should benefit from the world cup in June & July and potentially inflect positive later this year or in early '27. Franchisees noted opportunities exist to enhance the current marketing strategy to increase the brand's relevance and improve messaging surrounding Smart Kitchen and the ability to increase speed / throughput without sacrificing food quality. Additionally, value remains an important focus, with opportunities to promote and highlight value. That said, franchisees indicated still elevated demand to open new stores given returns that remain attractive, without material margin concerns.

2. McDonald's franchisees highlighted choppy performance thus far in 2Q, largely reflecting difficult April comparisons and given the current macro environment, with gas prices having a particularly negative impact on consumer demand among a core lower income cohort. Operators noted challenging macro conditions could continue, while comparisons are difficult in 2H. Despite pressures, our discussions suggest franchisees remain optimistic about the outlook for the brand and sales trends as gas prices eventually ease, with several drivers that could help lift sss including: i) recent launch of specialty beverages, including dirty sodas & refreshers which is driving avg check higher, with energy expected in Aug and other menu innovation coming (ie snack wraps news; new sandwich event around chicken); ii) strong marketing / campaigns (ie world cup meal w/ collectibles off to a solid start; Home Alone meal expected in 4Q); iii) compelling value platforms, with the Under $3 Menu and $4 Breakfast Meal Deal expected to gain guest count traction over the coming quarters; and iv) solid gains from digital / delivery & the loyalty platform. Additionally, franchisees noted an increased brand emphasis on utilizing technology & being more digital forward while also improving hospitality. Strategic plans from the Worldwide Convention appear to be focused on the right areas to drive longer-term traffic and sales share gains.

Three Important Facts About the Space

1. Restaurant inflation down slightly in May; Grocery pricing gap grew modestly

Total food inflation was down slightly for the broader food complex in May (3.1% vs. 3.2% April) per gov't data, w/ food away-from-home (FAFH) inflation down slightly m/m at 3.5% (vs. 3.6% in April) while food at-home (FAH) price inflation also decreased to 2.7% (vs. 3.0% in April). May restaurant price inflation remained above grocery (~80 bps), w/ the gap increasing from April (~60 bps). Limited service pricing was 3.3% in May (~flat vs April), while full-service was 3.8% (~flat vs April). We expect restaurant pricing to continue to ease modestly over the coming quarters as higher pricing levels roll off.

2. Value differs by age cohort; Rising prices pressuring restaurant traffic

Recent Technomic industry insights highlighted several industry themes, including: i) value differs by age cohort w/ the Baby Boomer & Gen X consumer more focused on quick service & high quality items, while younger customers also weigh other factors including brand identity, digital convenience, and social values. ii) Rising prices are likely still impacting restaurant industry traffic, with 83% of surveyed consumers noticing higher purchase prices & 63% cooking more at home as a result. Over the NTM, 45% of respondents plan to visit restaurants less, while 38% are actively looking for promotional offers.

3. Expect greater impacts from GLP-1s drugs on restaurants over time

UBS Consumer hosted another call with Michael Yee, UBS Global Head of Biotechnology Research, that highlighted his ~$133BN global GLP-1 market forecast by '30. Total obesity patients treated by GLP-1 in the US are projected to grow from ~5MM in '25 (or 1% of population) to >10MM by '30 (or ~5% of adult population), with upside to the forecasts from new drugs and potentially better convenience and fewer side effects. Specifically, the recently launched GLP-1 oral pills could grow to ~20% of the total GLP- 1 market longer-term. That said, the oral pills are not expected to be game changing near-term in the US due to lower efficacy than injectables. Affordability and accessibility of the drug should improve w/ better insurance coverage (including via Medicare and Medicaid) and lower cash pay costs. Currently, ~50% of GLP-1 users stop taking the drug after 1 yr given the high costs, however as it becomes more affordable, the length of use should extend longer. Key implications for the restaurants sector include: 1) reduced dining out frequency, with the impact likely increasing over time as drug adoption grows, 2) alcohol mix continues to decline for full-service restaurants, 3) a shift in consumer preference towards healthier food options and smaller portion, and 4) lower overall calorie intake even from GLP-1 users with the same restaurant visit frequency. Replay details and slides available upon request.

OpenTable Reservations Data by State

Food Away From Home inflation > Food At Home inflation

With the national average gasoline price exceeding the politically sensitive $4-per-gallon level for 10 weeks, consumers, mainly working-class ones, are in a real financial pinch as the tax-refund sugar is waning (read note). 

Professional subscribers can read more about the consumer at our new Marketdesk.ai portal. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 19:15

Waste Of The Day: Disaster In Small NM Village

Waste Of The Day: Disaster In Small NM Village

Authored by Jeremy Portnoy via RealClearWire,

Topline: The Village of Cuba, New Mexico, has had "a sustained and indefensible breakdown in accountability over public funds" since at least 2020, according to a state audit released in May. The report identified dozens of issues, including a public official with $11,471 in unpaid water bills and another who used public funds to buy a Subaru Crosstrek without approval.

Key facts: Auditors found the village never implemented proper processes to monitor its payroll, bank accounts, credit cards, or employee sick leave. There were not enough staff to perform "basic governmental and administrative functions," so the village outsourced almost all financial oversight to private contractors whose work was rarely, if ever, monitored. Some of the village's few finance employees resigned during the audit.

The village's water utility operated at a $3 million deficit over five years. Customers' bills were not based on actual water meter readings. The village instead estimated what each bill should be, with no apparent consistent methodology, the audit found.

All of the village's state and federal grant bank accounts were managed by one employee who often did not share records with anyone else, according to the audit. Nobody kept track of how large portions of the grant funds were spent to ensure they aligned with federal guidelines.

One village employee was enrolled in health insurance but never had their premiums deducted from their paychecks. Two other employees did have premiums deducted but were not enrolled in health insurance. Another was still on the village's health insurance over a year after they retired, auditors found.

A management employee paid themselves $21,464 for unused vacation and sick time, which was more than they had actually earned. The audit does not specify how much the employee was actually entitled to. The former mayor also received a $12,957 payout for unused time off, "contrary to city policy."

Multiple employees remained on the payroll without interruption after failing a drug test, the report found.

After completing the report, State Auditor Joseph Maestas told KOAT 7 News, "I've never seen anything like it."

The Village of Cuba has 640 residents and a $15 million budget this year. It had to modify its budget four times in 2025 because spending was outpacing revenue.

Search all federal, state and local salaries and vendor spending with the world's largest government spending database at OpenTheBooks.com.

Summary: Federal scandals often dominate the political headlines, but Cuba, New Mexico is a reminder that the most egregious mismanagement can often occur locally.

The #WasteOfTheDay is brought to you by the forensic auditors at OpenTheBooks.com

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 18:40

Steven Spielberg Believes That Disclosure Day Will Greatly Shake The Faith Of Christians All Over The Globe

Steven Spielberg Believes That Disclosure Day Will Greatly Shake The Faith Of Christians All Over The Globe

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Would undeniable evidence of alien life cause large numbers of people to abandon what they believe about God? Disclosure Day comes out in theaters this weekend, and that appears to be one of the biggest questions that this film is driving at. Much of the global population has always operated under the assumption that the only intelligent life that exists in the universe is on this planet. So how would the world respond to very clear evidence that proves once and for all that we are not alone?

Steven Spielberg is the creative force behind Disclosure Day, and he is making it abundantly clear what he believes.

During a shocking interview with CBS News, he openly stated that he believes that aliens “have been here, and they are here”…

Half a century after Steven Spielberg challenged audiences to think about what lies beyond the starry canopy that defines our universe in Close Encounters of the Third Kind, the director is again challenging accepted precepts of faith and singular belief in a supreme being.

His new film Disclosure Day sees him revisit the possibility of aliens: “I absolutely think that they have been here, and they are here,” he outlined in an interview with CBS News.

Wow.

Spielberg is actually convinced that aliens are here on Earth right now.

And during a different interview with USA Today, he expressed his view that there is “overwhelming” evidence that aliens exist…

When I made “Close Encounters,” I needed a lot of imagination. I believed there was other life out there, although I wasn’t quite sure if it had come here. I was really curious about UFOs and UAPs. I said, “I’m not going to call ‘Close Encounters’ science fiction – I’m going to call it science speculation.” But since the beginning of the 21st century, there’s been more and more access to the actual visual truth. We’re able to confirm our belief by showing what we shot on our devices to other people. It’s just become overwhelming to me that we’re not alone in the universe.

Disclosure Day makes it clear that Spielberg does not consider the fact that we are not alone to be a bad thing.

In fact, it appears that he is trying to get those that watch the movie to be open to whatever the “aliens” may want to teach us.

In my opinion, that is what makes this film so dangerous.

The idea is that once the “aliens” show up we should discard what we have always believed and just accept whatever new reality they have to offer.

Of course Spielberg also acknowledges that this would be very difficult for many of us.

Spielberg is convinced that if the government fully revealed everything about alien life that they have been keeping from us, it would “mess up a lot of people”…

“There’s a faction in the film that represents a pretty good position of why — possibly because of ontological shock, social dislocation — if this truth… were just known overnight, if the government announced, ‘Yes, we have been keeping this from you since 1947,’ that would mess up a lot of people.”

So exactly who are the “people” that Spielberg is referring to?

At one point in his interview with CBS News, Spielberg suggested that undeniable evidence of alien life would greatly shake the theological beliefs of those that believe in God…

During a CBS News interview, Spielberg reflected on how confirmation of intelligent life beyond Earth could affect religious faith, saying, ‘The movie also takes the position of the church.

‘What does this do to the fundamental beliefs that many of us have? Is God our God only on this planet? Or is God a god for every system where there’s civilization and intelligent life, and even developing life?’

The Oscar-winning filmmaker argued that proof of alien life would force many believers to confront difficult questions about God’s role in a universe that may be filled with other intelligent civilizations.

Obviously this is something that has been on his mind for a long time.

If you have not seen Spielberg’s full interview with CBS News yet, I would highly recommend checking it out, because it is very revealing…

Because it has so much hype, I think that Disclosure Day will be one of the biggest movies of the year.

Over time, billions of people could end up watching this film.

Just think about that for a moment.

All over the world, people will have their opinions about extraterrestrial life shaped by Spielberg, and that is extremely alarming.

One character in Disclosure Day actually suggests that when the “aliens” finally show up, people will “stop believing in God” and will instead accept the “aliens” as “deities”…

Would the discovery of alien life really be faith-shattering? One character in Disclosure Day (a former novitiate nun played by Bono’s daughter Eve Hewson) argues, “People will see [aliens] as deities. They’ll stop believing in God.”

For decades, movies, television shows, books and video games have been priming us to believe that someday the “aliens” will finally make their grand appearance.

And when that happens, much of the global population will accept whatever they have to say hook, line and sinker.

But true Christians will not have their faith shaken by Disclosure Day, nor will they have their faith shaken even if “aliens” suddenly show up in large numbers in the skies above this planet.

From the very beginning to the very end, the Bible openly acknowledges that we are not alone in the universe.

In fact, the Bible has a great deal to say about angels, fallen angels, demons and a whole host of other non-human entities.

And the final book of the Bible is far wilder than any science fiction movie that Hollywood has ever put out.

Yes, very strange creatures will someday invade our planet. You can read all about it in Revelation chapter 9.

I have been writing about all of this stuff for well over a decade, because I want the world to understand what is going to happen in advance.

Once you understand what is going to happen, your faith will never be shaken by a Steven Spielberg film.

On social media, some Christians are making this point quite eloquently…

One user posted on X in response to the director’s statements, saying: ‘I can promise you it won’t. Not even for a second.’ While another shared: ‘The Alien Psyop will definitely make people question their faith lol.’

An X user posted: ‘We’ve had 70 years of sci-fi movies with aliens. I think Christians will survive this movie with their faith intact.’

Steven Spielberg seems to think that the fact that we are not alone is some sort of grand discovery.

But the reality of the matter is that the Bible has been telling us this for thousands of years.

We were never alone.

So don’t buy into the Hollywood propaganda.

We are being set up for a deception of epic proportions, but those that hold on to the truth will be able to see right through it.

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/14/2026 - 16:20

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