Foreign Terror Designation Could Boost US Efforts To Dismantle Antifa

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times,

With the Trump administration intensifying investigations into the overseas operations and financial networks of far-left extremist group Antifa, debate has sharpened over whether the group should be designated a foreign terrorist organization.

President Donald Trump designated Antifa as a domestic terrorist organization in a Sept. 22 executive order, 12 days after conservative influencer Charlie Kirk was slain at an event at Utah Valley University. The alleged gunman left behind bullet casings with writing on them, including an unspent one that read, “Hey, fascist! Catch!”

The shooting drew fresh attention to the so-called anti-fascist movement and Antifa.

​During an Oct. 8 roundtable discussion with journalists who spoke about being assaulted by members of Antifa, Trump reacted favorably when a reporter asked whether it would be appropriate to designate the organization as a foreign terror group, similar to Mexican drug cartels and transnational gangs.

​“Let’s get it done,” Trump said.

White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller called it a “very valid step” because of Antifa’s foreign ties.

​Designating a group as a foreign terrorist organization equips the federal government with greater authority to conduct international investigations, seize assets, and pursue criminal charges, providing more options beyond domestic measures.

​Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.) said he believes that a foreign terrorist designation for Antifa is necessary, and he recently wrote to Secretary of State Marco Rubio about Antifa’s overseas activities.

​“They have an international network of safe houses. Antifa is not an idea, it’s an organization,” Schmitt told The Epoch Times.

“I think if we’re serious about taking on political violence ... they’re the tip of the spear, so I think it’s absolutely necessary.”

Rubio’s office did not immediately respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment, citing the ongoing government shutdown.

Antifa ‘Myth’

Critics argue that Trump’s actions against Antifa represent government overreach, as well as sparking a larger debate about using terror designations to address domestic dissent.

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.), ranking member of the Committee on Homeland Security, called it a mistake to name Antifa as a domestic terrorist group. Thompson said in a Sept. 22 statement that doing so “serves no purpose other than an excuse for the Trump administration to stifle dissent.”

Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) speaks during a hearing with the heads of the FBI, Homeland Security, and the National Counterterrorism Center, in Washington on Nov. 15, 2023. Thompson said labeling Antifa a domestic terrorist group was a mistake and

​Some Democrats have downplayed Antifa’s involvement in riots and damage to property, suggesting that Antifa does not exist. In 2020, Rep. Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.) commented on rioting involving Antifa in Portland, Oregon.

​“That’s a myth that’s being spread only in Washington D.C.,” Nadler said in response to a reporter who asked whether the lawmaker disavows the violence by Antifa.

​Former FBI Director Christopher Wray, who served under both Trump and President Joe Biden, described Antifa as an “ideology or a movement,” not a centralized organization, during a 2020 congressional hearing.

Rutgers University ​assistant teaching professor Mark Bray, author of “Antifa: The Anti-Fascist Handbook,” wrote in his book that even as times have changed, Antifa’s commitment “to stamp out fascism by any means necessary” remains intact and connects the movement to its earliest origins.

Antifa originated under the Soviet Union and functioned as the violent wing of Germany’s Communist Party to target political rivals. The group labeled its enemies as “fascists.”

“Only mass antifascism, legal or not, can save us,” Bray wrote on the Bluesky social media platform on Oct. 4.

Antifa members often wear “black bloc,” or all black clothing and masks, to remain anonymous and avoid prosecution for crimes such as vandalism and assault, he said.

Antifa protesters carrying communist flags march past the Holocaust Memorial while demonstrating against gatherings of neo-Nazis nearby in the city center in Berlin on March 20, 2021. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

Overseas Operation

In his Oct. 9 letter to Rubio, Schmitt pointed out that Antifa is “not a collection of independent domestic actors” but an international network.

​“I write to you today to urge you to designate the foreign networks, organizations, and financiers that enable and support Antifa operations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations,” Schmitt wrote.

​His letter states that Antifa cells appear decentralized but coordinate and share tactics and funding streams.

​“The political violence that Antifa-linked terrorists perpetrate on American streets is inextricably tied to this broader international system,” he wrote.

In Canada, a court confirmed ties between Antifa and the ​Canadian Anti-Hate Network group, according to Schmitt’s letter.

The “Stop Cop City” riots in Atlanta in 2023 also involved international coordination, according to Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr. He told Fox News that some of the militants arrested—who allegedly threw Molotov cocktails, fireworks, and rocks at police—were from France and Canada.

​“This is a national, an international group of people that are organized to come to our state to undermine a public safety training center,” Carr said.

Protesters march during an anti-fascism demonstration in Barcelona on Oct. 12, 2017. Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images

​Ammon Blair, intelligence consultant and senior fellow at the Texas Public Policy Foundation’s Secure and Sovereign Texas Initiative, said Trump needs to designate Antifa a foreign terrorist organization in order to dismantle it.

​Such a designation allows intelligence agencies to gather information abroad, because those agencies cannot target U.S. citizens domestically, he said. It would also allow the government to cut off funding and material support for terrorism.

Blair said Antifa members and communist groups are agitating for ​“a color revolution” to destabilize Western countries. Color revolutions use grassroots mobilization, protests, and civil disobedience to topple governments.

“They think the oppression itself is our constitutional republic,” he told The Epoch Times.

Internationally, militant anti-fascists have been involved in arson, bombings, and assassinations in Latin America and Europe, according to a 2021 report from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies titled “Behind the Black Bloc: An Overview of Militant Anarchism and Anti-Fascism.”

​Some European countries, such as Hungary and the Netherlands, supported Trump’s move to designate Antifa as a domestic terrorist group.

​Tom Vandendriessche, a Belgian politician and member of the European Parliament, has been an outspoken critic of Antifa in Europe and wants a terrorist designation there as well.

​“We must designate Antifa as a terrorist organization, expose its financiers, and dismantle its support networks. [Seventy-nine] Members of the European Parliament support my resolution,” he wrote in an X post this month.

Antifa members gather to demonstrate following the announcement of the results of the first round of the presidential election, in Nantes, France, on April 23, 2017. Jean-sebastien Evrard/AFP via Getty Images

Follow the Money

​Blair said funding to Antifa is funneled through nongovernmental organizations and crowdfunding sites, which are harder to track.

​“It’s a clever way to mask donations,” he said.

​One international funding organization called the International Anti-Fascist Defence Fund (IAFD), a spinoff of Antifa International Collective, stated that it seeks to make funding “accessible to all anti-fascists around the world.”

​​“Over the last 12 months, we’ve intervened nine times to assist 52 anti-fascists in Finland, France, Germany, the UK, and the US,” the group’s annual report reads.

​In a September blog post, the group reported making a donation to “community activists” involved in what officials described as an officer ambush outside a Texas Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention facility in July.

An Alvarado Police Department officer was shot in the neck during the incident but survived.

Ten people were charged with the attempted murder of a police officer. Two alleged members of a Texas Antifa cell were charged with providing material support to terrorists. It marked the first terrorism-related charges brought against people allegedly linked to the network.

IAFD made a $5,050 donation to the GiveSendGo account for protesters at the Texas ICE facility, which has raised more than $45,000 as of Oct. 28.

Antifa members and counter protesters gather during a No-To-Marxism rally in Berkeley, Calif., on Aug. 27, 2017. Amy Osborne/AFP via Getty Images

​Another active funding group with alleged Antifa ties is Germany’s Red Aid, which ​German domestic intelligence calls an extremist legal aid group. The group supports people who fight “fascism” and oppose what they consider government oppression.

​The group, rooted in the German Communist Party, which was banned by the Nazis in 1933, claims 9,500 members, including anti-fascists. In 2017, Red Aid reported paying more than $441,000 in support for left-wing activists.

Blair contended that governments that ignore ideological threats risk allowing movements such as Antifa to gain momentum.

“Governments almost always act too late against revolutionary movements and insurgencies,” he said.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 06:30

7 Powerful Strategies From The Great Philosophers For A Better Life

Authored by Jonathan Millimore via The Epoch Times,

Fifteen years ago, I lost a job.

The timing was bad. My wife and I had just purchased our first home, and we were expecting our first child.

As editor of a small publication, I had refused to spike a story we were set to publish (it involved questionable political dealings of a prominent politician). Spiking the story would have been easy, but I couldn’t bring myself to do it. It felt wrong. So I prepared a resignation letter, hoping it wouldn’t come to that. (It did.)

Losing one’s job is rarely a satisfying occasion. But for me, it was. For one, the move turned out to be very good for me professionally. More importantly, I had stood for something. This made me proud—after the sting wore off.

1. Do the Right Thing

Though I didn’t realize it at the time, the episode was pivotal in my character development. The great Roman thinker Cicero believed that doing the right thing in the face of consequences is an essential part of virtue.

“He who sacrifices his duty to expediency is like one who cuts down the ship’s mast to escape a storm,” Cicero (106–43 B.C.) wrote in “On Duties.” “He is saved for the moment, but shipwrecked forever.”

The moral is simple: On important things, stand firm on principle, even if it costs you.

Here are six more strategies from great philosophers that can help you build a better life.

2. Rule Your Inner Life, Not Other People

Plato (428–347 B.C.) once said that the “first and greatest victory is to conquer yourself.” The Greek philosopher said it was the most “shameful and vile” of things to allow your inner desires to rule you.

Epictetus, writing 500 years later, urged people to focus energy inward. He believed happiness comes from moderating desires and choosing pleasures that are not enslaving. He wisely saw this as a path to freedom, both inward and outward. After all, a person who commands himself cannot be easily commanded by others.

Many people today focus their energy on trying to fix the world while neglecting their own inner life. This is folly. Conquer yourself first. Just remember, it’s not as easy as it sounds.

C.S. Lewis wrote in “Mere Christianity”: “No man knows how bad he is till he has tried very hard to be good.”

A woman meditates in Kyiv, Ukraine, on Nov. 7, 2023. Oleksii Pidsosonnyi/The Epoch Times

3. Value Work and Take Pleasure In It

Many postmodern thinkers see work as degrading, coercive, and alienating.

That’s not just a bleak view of work—it’s a false one. Many of us have experienced not just the material fruits of work (a paycheck) but the less tangible fulfillment it offers. As a young man, I worked as a waiter, a roofer, and a garbage collector—jobs some call demeaning or “exploitative.” I don’t want to romanticize those jobs—they were hard—but I gained more than money from each of them. Work, with the proper mindset, is one of the surest paths to self-improvement. It is also part of human nature, when done freely.

“It is the natural desire of every man to better his condition when he is secure of enjoying the fruits of his own labour,” philosopher Adam Smith observed in “The Wealth of Nations.”

Smith saw the dignity and independence that work offers. Creating value builds both character and community, and it is one of the truest expressions of human liberty.

A waiter works at a restaurant in Tijuana, Mexico, on July 5, 2024. Guillermo Arias/AFP via Getty Images

4. Pursue Your Own Happiness

Oscar Wilde once observed, “Unselfishness is letting other people’s lives alone, not interfering with them.”

The quote puts the individual in his proper place and reminds us of something important: You are the one in charge of your life. Not the tribe. Not the state. In a free society, individuals decide what they want and value. This is not “selfishness.” It’s a social good. The philosopher John Stuart Mill observed that society flourishes when people are free to choose their own actions and pursue their own dreams.

“In proportion to the development of his individuality, each person becomes more valuable to himself, and is therefore capable of being more valuable to others,” Mill wrote in “On Liberty.”

Choosing one’s own path—“the pursuit of happiness,” in Thomas Jefferson’s immortal words—is central to human dignity and flourishing. Don’t let anyone choose yours, but choose wisely and accept the responsibility that comes with that freedom.

5. Cultivate Virtue as a Habit (Especially Humility)

Aristotle believed that virtue was not something rulers could impose. In fact, virtue requires choice. He also said virtue is demonstrated and developed by our actions.

“We become just by doing just acts, temperate by doing temperate acts, brave by doing brave acts,” the philosopher wrote in “Nicomachean Ethics.”

There’s a lot of confusion over virtue today. Many would have you think that your beliefs make you a virtuous person. Nonsense. Virtue is attained. We become virtuous not through belief but through practice. So dedicate yourself to the four cardinal virtues—prudence, justice, fortitude, and temperance—and don’t forget to include humility, which Saint Augustine called “the foundation of all the other virtues.”

6. Face Death to Live Fully

The Roman philosopher Seneca (4 B.C.–A.D. 65) once said that the tragedy of life isn’t that it’s short, “but that we waste much of it. … So we must prepare for death every day.”

The words might sound macabre, but this is good advice. It’s easy to forget, but death is part of life. We don’t just lose loved ones along our way; we, too, will depart this earth. Writing in the journal First Things, filmmaker Caylan Ford said facing this reality comes with benefits.

“Awareness of death humbles us in our vanity, our hubris, and our contempt for others, and it dispels any illusions that we are in control of our fates,” she wrote.

Like many Greek thinkers, Roman Emperor Marcus Aurelius believed it was irrational to fear death, which was the most natural of all things. Plato, meanwhile, tells us that Socrates went to his grave cheerfully despite his unjust death sentence.

“I think that a man who has truly spent his life in philosophy is probably right to be of good cheer in the face of death,” Socrates says in Plato’s “Phaedo.”

By facing death and accepting mortality, you learn how to live more fully—and more wisely.

Budimir Jevtic/Shutterstock

7. Wake Up Right

My pastor says the first thing he does in the morning is get on his knees and pray. It’s a habit I’ve tried to adopt, but with little success. I share the anecdote for a reason: Everyone has heard the idiom about “getting up on the wrong side of the bed.” It turns out that how (and when) we get out of bed matters.

It’s a cliché, but getting up early is important. There are clear benefits to rising early, including lower risk of depression. But how we get up matters almost as much as when. Marcus Aurelius thought it was so important that he prepared himself daily.

“When you wake up in the morning, tell yourself: The people I deal with today will be meddling ungrateful, arrogant, dishonest, jealous, and surly. They are like this because they can’t tell good from evil,” he wrote in “Meditations.”

Humans need sleep, but having the discipline to rise each morning and devote yourself—in mind and spirit—is important. As a father of three, I can attest that being present in the morning with one’s children—making them breakfast, getting them dressed, having them prepared for their day—is essential for a functioning family.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 05:45

EU's Former Border Chief Said Commissioner Pressured Him To Embrace Open Borders

Via Remix News,

Former Frontex chief and National Rally MEP Fabrice Leggeri has spoken about how the European Union elite exerted immense pressure on him when he tried to defend EU borders against mass migration, including a key commissioner who claimed it was his job to “welcome migrants.”

The Frontex Fundamental Rights Office has gradually expanded significantly.

In 2020 and 2021, Leggeri became the target of political attacks from the European Commission, led by Commissioner Ylva Johansson of the socialist Swedish Workers’ Party.

“When I looked through her CV before our first meeting, I thought: ‘She’s probably impossible to work with.’ But she was a commissioner and had real influence,” said the Frenchman. “[…] At our first meeting, I explained to her what we were doing – developing a European border and coast guard, with uniforms and weapons, and why we were experiencing some delays. She interrupted me and said: ‘You don’t need weapons and uniforms.’ Because, as she said, the role of the border guard is to welcome migrants,” Leggeri reported. 

He also said that Johansson threatened him twice, telling him: “Like it or not, your job is to welcome migrants.”

Leggeri was subjected to pressure for attempting to fulfill Frontex’s mandate – supporting member states in managing the EU’s external borders and combating cross-border crime, including illegal migration. 

The MEP, now a member of the Patriots for Europe group, shared the details with Ewa Zajączkowska-Hernik, a member of the Confederation’s European Parliament, according to the Do Rzezcy news portal.

Leggeri explained that initially, the European Commission showed some support for Frontex’s actions, but at the same time, it was increasingly pressured by the proliferation of pro-immigration NGOs. 

Their “activists,” calling themselves “defenders of fundamental rights,” gradually attempted to “advise” and “consult” Frontex against counteracting the influx of illegal migrants. They recommended, for example, busing illegal immigrants from the Belarusian-Lithuanian border to Lithuania and Poland. 

Therefore, Leggeri advised the Polish authorities against using Frontex’s assistance.

“It was October 2019. That’s when I felt real pressure, political hostility towards the very idea of ​​border management. Previously, the idea was to create a kind of European border guard to support national border services. But from the moment Johansson arrived, various organized actions began against me and Frontex itself,” Leggeri said. He added that George Soros’ Open Society Foundation and some left-wing media outlets were involved.

As he explained, Johansson and Soros’ operatives worked to take over Frontex from within and reinforce left-wing NGO activists who would ensure the entry of illegal migrants into European countries. The idea was to create a command structure parallel to that of the member states, in order to paralyze border defenses against illegal aliens. This selected staff, so-called “fundamental rights controllers” and “independent officers,” went into the field, including to Lithuania, and began intimidating member states’ border guards by claiming that the orders issued by their superiors were allegedly illegal.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 05:00

Where The World Eats The Most (And Least) Meat

Which countries eat the most meat?

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz details below, according to UN Food and Agriculture Organization data reported by website World Population Review, the United States, Argentina and Australia are in the top of the global meat-eating league with more than 110 kg consumed per capita in 2022.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Countries which top 100 kg of meat consumed per person and year also include Mongolia, Spain and Israel.

While wealthier countries tend to eat more meat, the status of meat in local cuisine also plays a major role in consumption patterns.

The least meat in the world is eaten in Africa as well as in South Asia - due to meat being unaffordable for many in the regions, cultural factors or a mix of both.

While India posted no data for 2022, it was also among those consuming the least meat in previous years, together with Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Bangladesh.

The economic and supply struggles in conflict regions are also visible on the map, with very little meat consumed in Syria and Yemen. This also applies to North Korea.

Studies, like this landmark release by Nature in 2018, have found that Western countries would have to reduce their meat intake by 90 percent to limit climate change to acceptable levels.

To ensure that nutritional needs continue to be met with reduced meat production, the survey recommends increasing the consumption of beans and other pulses to create a climate-friendly protein supply.

Good luck with that!

Tyler Durden Thu, 10/30/2025 - 04:15

"We Just Won": Trump Gloats After Bill Gates Admits Climate Change Won't End World

In the late 1970s, after 'global cooling' armageddon science fell out of fashion, a well-oiled machine comprised of billionaire-funded NGOs, the MSM, Hollywood, woke Wall Street, and a robust fact-checking / censorship cartel - started pushing a cult narrative about the planet's imminent demise in a hellish inferno of global warming. They've blamed everything from cow farts and Taylor Swift's private jet to two-stroke chainsaws, petrol-powered cars, and whatever else these climate Marxists wanted banned - and forced people into authoritarian bullshit like 'electric stoves only' and '15 minute cities' and 'eat the bugs,' etc. 

Now, as data centers are coincidentally projected to need record amounts of electricity, Bill Gates has changed his mind about all of that.

In 2019 Bill Gates was saying that we had to stop cows from farting, eat fake meat, and get to net zero emissions globally to prevent climate catastrophe.

If you questioned any of it, you were called an uneducated, science-denying caveman.

Today Gates said that we will never… pic.twitter.com/O0z0fDhoOd

— MAZE (@mazemoore) October 28, 2025

And of course the climate cult was one giant grift - or as one former DOGE worker put it, "a heist on the U.S. Treasury" carried out through propaganda that allowed 'virtuous' climate bills to be passed easily. 

To see this machine in action, look no further than the number of news articles which warned of a "climate crisis" going back 10 years: 

And yet, despite decades of gospel over melting ice caps and doom, Gates simply shreds it and decides it's ackshually not such a big deal. 

To wit, his new forecast is that climate change "won't lead to humanity's demise." 

Today, Bill Gates admitted that pushing climate doomerism was a mistake.@LLBiggers: “That shift to common sense is welcome, but it comes after decades of fearmongering that harmed young people, stalled development, and punished dissenting scientists.” pic.twitter.com/rUpjSAC0BR

— The Free Press (@TheFP) October 28, 2025

And now, Trump is gloating!

"I (WE!) just won the War on the Climate Change Hoax. Bill Gates has finally admitted that he was completely WRONG on the issue. It took courage to do so, and for that we are all grateful. MAGA!!!" Trump wrote on Truth Social. 

Weird that Gates didn't come to this conclusion before Big Tech needed tons of energy, fast, which means fossil fuels.

Latest on Gates Foundation: 

• Senate Judiciary Launches Probe Into Gates Foundation's Alleged Funding Of Chinese Military Fronts

• Trump Calls For RICO Charges Against Soros Over Violent Protest Support; Gates Foundation Abruptly Severs Ties With Rogue Arabella Advisors

It's important to understand that there is a war being waged on the minds of the American people. The last five years of fake climate doom headlines were merely a move to enrich Democrat allies, such as climate NGOs, with taxpayer funds.  

Keep in mind, anyone who questioned the climate change narrative was silenced. Very authoritarian by Democrats and their billionaire 'Kings' ... 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 18:00

Do Antidepressants Work For Kids? Key Evidence Is Corrupt Study

Authored by Paul Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,

Hey, guys. During a MAHA Institute Round Table in DC last week, I talked about two studies published in peer reviewed journals as examples of corruption, one being GlaxoSmithKline’s Study 329, which alleged that Paxil was useful for treating depression in adolescents. We later discovered, through lawsuits, that Study 329 finding were distorted and an attorney is now suing the publisher to have it retracted.

I’ve been investigating and writing about Study 329 for almost twenty years as it stands out as one of the best documented case studies of corruption in modern biomedicine. Unfortunately, a piece I wrote for a DC nonprofit documenting much of this evidence disappeared in the last year as the publishing platform shut down. So I’m republishing that 2011 piece here so that it stays available for readers searching on Google.

Study 329 remains relevant because it highlights and underlines how immoral academics partner with Big Pharma to make money, while ignoring patient harm. When I wrote the piece in 2011, I was focused on one of Study 329’s authors: Stan Kutcher, a crooked psychiatry professor at Dalhousie University in Canada.

At the time, Kutcher was running for Parliament. Thankfully, he lost. But in 2019, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau picked Kutcher to be a member of Canada’s Senate, where he serves today.

Since that time, Kutcher has morphed himself into—get this!—an expert on misinformation. In January 2021, Kutcher partnered with “fact checker” and known misinformation crank, Timothy Caulfied at the University of Albera, to launch “Science Up First” which purported to attack COVID-19 conspiracies, but really served as a cheerleading squad for Big Pharma.

Kutcher has also been beavering away at limiting free speech under the guise of “controlling misinformation” because of course. Anyways, here’s the piece I wrote on Kutcher and Study 329 to help people understand how rampant Big Pharma corruption remains in academia.

Never forget what these people did to little children to make a quick buck.

Enjoy!

May 12, 2011

Author of Ghostwritten Study Runs for Parliament in Canada

By Paul Thacker

The night before I spoke last week at the University of Toronto conference on corporate funded ghostwriting in medicine, the university held a dinner at a French bistro for the conference speakers. It was election night in Canada and everyone at the table was buzzing about Dr. Stan Kutcher, a psychiatry professor at Dalhousie University who was running for Parliament.

Under legal threat from Dr. Kutcher, The Coast, a small Canadian newspaper, retracted and then apologized for a story that investigated a study Dr. Kutcher published on Paxil. Known as “Study 329,” this clinical trial was funded by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and concluded that Paxil is “generally well tolerated and effective for major depression in adolescents.”

Unfortunately for Dr. Kutcher, GSK was sued in the United States for hiding evidence of the link between Paxil and suicide. Numerous internal emails and documents are public and Study 329 now pops up in most discussion whenever experts talk about corruption in medical research.

Warning to readers: hold your nose. Study 329 really stinks.

If you’re new to the issue, corporate funded ghostwriting involves a pharmaceutical company that hires a PR firm to write medical studies. The PR firm then presents the manuscript to academic physicians to sign their names on as authors. Sometimes, the authors make only minor changes. The professors get credit for a publication to add to their CVs, and the pharma company gets a study that is “authored” by physicians who are leading researchers in their field and appear to be independent.

The practice of ghostwriting drives up the costs of healthcare, because these studies trick doctors into prescribing drugs that may be more costly, and sometimes less safe. These studies can also be used to seek approval by the FDA and payment from federal healthcare programs.

In the case of Study 329, GlaxoSmithKline used the study as a tool to market Paxil for use on children, until both the FDA and its British counterpart warned doctors to stop prescribing Paxil to children because it could cause them to commit suicide.

Last November, POGO sent a letter to National Institutes of Health (NIH) asking why taxpayers were funding researchers involved in Study 329 when it was ghostwritten and flawed.

Anyways, the retracted article in The Coast detailed some of Study 329’s problems and quoted Alison Bass, a former medical writer at The Boston Globe. Ms. Bass wrote an extensively referenced book titled Side Effects on the scandals and corruption involved in Study 329. The book was widely reviewed by media such as The New York Review of Books and The Canadian Medical Association Journal.

But her book isn’t the only detailed account of ethically questionable behavior in Study 329.

In January 2007, the BBC ran an investigative report on Study 329, calling it “one of the biggest medical scandals of recent times.” The BBC released several internal company documents purporting that GlaxoSmithKline knew that Study 329 was flawed years before the results were published. The BBC also quoted Fiona Godlee, editor of the British Medical Journal, who called Study 329 a “problem” in scientific research.

The list of studies and experts critiquing Study 329 goes on and on.

I vote for Paxil!

So with such an extensive public record on corruption in Study 329 (just use Google, for goodness sake!) how did Dr. Kutcher characterize Study 329?

“I don’t think that study caused any particular controversy,” he said. “There certainly is a group of people who would like to cause a controversy around it, but science is nasty, brutish and long.”

Nasty and brutish? No doubt. Especially, when all those documents and reports on Study 329 are splashed across the Internet.

Still, The Coast apparently ran afoul of Canadian law by publishing a negative story so close to the time of an election. After The Coast retracted and apologized, Dr. Kutcher dashed off a press release.

“It comes as a great surprise that The Coast is confusing opinion with science,” he wrote. Dr. Kutcher then crowed, “[T]his is something we are more accustomed to hear from the American right wing than the Canadian left wing.”

Yep. Right. Uh-huh.

Intrigued, I called the contact person listed at the bottom of the press release, Layton Dorey. When I asked if he had looked into the problems with Study 329, he said that I should contact Dr. Kutcher at his university.

Read the rest here...

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 17:40

Leading Construction Indicator Signals Data Center Buildout Tsunami Nears

A leading indicator of U.S. non-residential construction activity, published monthly by Dodge Construction Network, shows continued strength in commercial and institutional planning, primarily driven by the data center buildout tsunami that is set to gain serious momentum in 2026. 

Goldman analysts, led by Susan Maklari, noted that the Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) rose 3% in September, moderating from +5% in August and +21% in July.

Year over year, DMI surged 60%, led by a 75% jump in institutional projects (notably healthcare and public) and a 53% increase in commercial activity (driven by data centers and retail).

Maklari spotted a major divergence in the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) that weakened further to 43.3 (from 47.2), indicating contraction in architectural activity even as project inquiries moved higher. She said the divergence between the DMI and ABI is due to large-scale data center and public-sector projects that dominate the construction world.

DMI is a leading indicator because construction projects typically take 12+ months to move from planning to groundbreaking; the index is viewed as a 9- to 12-month leading indicator of construction spending. This indicates that all the data center spending headlines this year will move from planning to groundbreaking in 2026. 

In May, we cited a note from UBS analyst Steven Fisher that forecasted the Trump-era construction boom in AI data centers wouldn't filter into the real economy until next year (read report).

"More slowing before reacceleration in 2026," Fisher told clients, adding, "We expect stimulus and structural forces to drive the rebound, while cyclical factors remain weak."

Are Harvard economists ever right? 

Fisher expects a reacceleration in construction spending in 2H26. 

Certaintly, this will be a critical economic tailwind for the Trump administration during the 2026 midterm election cycle. 

ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the full GS note in the usual place. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 17:20

Monetary Policy & Government Independence: The Legacy Of Quantitative Easing

Authored by Richard Woolnough via BondVigilantes.com,

The standing economic orthodoxy is that Independent central bankers are adamant in their belief that their remit is purely monetary and that governments are in charge of fiscal policy.

Though at times of stress, it is well recognised that central banks should act in a coordinated fashion with national governments. This has rightly occurred across many jurisdictions since independent central banks became the common framework in developed economies towards the end of the last century.

We are now not in an emergency, so central banks are once again allowed to operate their monetary levers independent of national governments.

The legacy of quantitative easing (QE) has, however, left an interesting legacy for central banks in this relationship.

This is best typified by the Bank of England and this is the topic we will focus on below.

The spillover effects of QE under different interest rate regimes

The UK was amongst the most active in altering its day-to-day economic life during COVID. The UK’s central bank, the Bank of England (BoE), also pursued an index approach of printing money via purchasing fixed interest securities across the length of the yield curve, in broadly equal buckets. The BoE was therefore the most heavily involved in buying long-dated debt to facilitate the creation of money.

Source: M&G, Bloomberg

During the low-interest rate phase of QE this resulted in excess income for the BoE, which was essentially borrowing at short-term interest rates by printing money, and lending at long-term interest-rates by buying gilts. In this scenario there was a benefit from the yield advantage generated by buying bonds at higher yields than the short-term financing rate. This excess income, and the occasional capital gain when a gilt redeemed, was repatriated to the government’s finances. Hence, QE not only reduced interest rates but also helped government finances. The independent central bank was stimulating the private sector directly through monetary policy, and indirectly by creating fiscal headroom by reducing the budget deficit, thereby creating fiscal headroom for tax cuts or higher spending for the government.

Given the increase in both short- and long-term interest rates post COVID, this carry trade has turned negative. Gilts that were bought with low yields are now being financed by borrowing at a much higher cash rate. This results in an income loss that means the government ultimately has less fiscal room, as they need to refill the BoE’s coffers.

Quantitative tightening (QT) brings this negative carry loss into the present day.

The impact of monetary policy on budget deficit

When the Bank of England sells a Gilt, it will make a profit or a loss. The chart below shows the price of a 30-year gilt from 2020 to the end of September 2025. A purchase during QE in 2020 at an average price of £96.2 ,combined with a sale now at a 2025 average price of £36.6, results in an overall loss of 62%. The Bank of England has this loss covered by the guarantee given by the UK government. Hence there is a transfer from the government to the Bank, resulting in the government deficit increasing. This transfer must be funded by, all else equal, tax rises or cuts in public spending. Therefore, the legacy of QT has fiscal implications.

Source: M&G, Bloomberg

We can quantity the size of the fiscal boost and fiscal headwind in the chart below.

Sources: Bloomberg LLP for market rates as 31 December 2024. Bank of England calculations for data in relation to APF cash flows. NPV calculations based on end-December 2024 data.

To put these recent negative annual cashflows into perspective, in the 2024/25 financial year, the UK government raised around £840bn billion in tax receipts.

There is a lot of discussion about the fiscal position of the UK, with various factors coming to the fore: Brexit, COVID, election giveaways, and productivity growth. One that gets rarely mentioned is the fiscal pain of QT.

QE in the first phase made the government’s fiscal manoeuvrability… Quite Exceptional

While QT makes it… Quite Tough

credittrader Wed, 10/29/2025 - 17:00

Meta Tumbles, Microsoft Slides, Alphabet Soars After Mag 7 Earnings Deluge

With the Fed decision in the history books, attention turned to the barrage of Mag 7 earnings after the close today, which as previewed could move dramatically based on what they reported. And at exactly 4:05pm we got the releases which were 1 out of 3, with META and MSFT sliding, and GOOGL jumping.

Here are the details, starting with today's winner Alphabet, which reported quarterly sales that beat analysts’ estimates, buoyed by the performance of its cloud unit, which is growing as artificial intelligence startups seek Google’s support and computing

• Revenue ex-TAC $87.47 billion, +17% y/y, beating estimate $85.11 billion (Revenue $102.35 billion, +16% y/y, also beat estimate $99.85 billion)
  • Google Services revenue $87.05 billion, +14% y/y,beating estimate $84.67 billion
  • Google advertising revenue $74.18 billion, +13% y/y, beating estimate $72.46 billion
  • Google Search & Other Revenue $56.57 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimate $54.99 billion
  • YouTube ads revenue $10.26 billion, +15% y/y, beating estimate $10.03 billion
  • Google Network Revenue $7.35 billion, -2.6% y/y, missing estimate $7.39 billion
  • Google Subscriptions, Platforms and Devices Revenue $12.87 billion, +21% y/y, beating estimate $12.35 billion
  • Google Cloud revenue $15.16 billion, +34% y/y, beating estimate $14.75 billion
  • Other Bets revenue $344 million, -11% y/y, estimate $429.4 million
• EPS $2.87 vs. $2.12 y/y, beating estimate $2.26

Alphabet’s cloud division stood out, delivering revenue of $15.16 billion versus the $14.75 billion estimate, underscoring ongoing enterprise demand for AI workloads on Vertex. The company also reported a hefty $155 billion backlog in Google Cloud, signaling sustained momentum into next year. 

Turning to costs and expenses:

• Total TAC $14.88 billion, +8.4% y/y, above the estimate $14.84 billion
   
• Operating income $31.23 billion, +9.5% y/y, below estimate $32.11 billion
• Google Services operating income $33.53 billion, +8.7% y/y, below estimate $33.59 billion
• Google Cloud operating income $3.59 billion, +85% y/y, above estimates $3.01 billion
• Other Bets operating loss $1.43 billion vs. loss $1.12 billion y/y, below estimate loss $1.21 billion
• Alphabet-level activities operating loss $4.47 billion vs. loss $3.17 billion y/y, above estimate loss $3.53 billion
• Operating margin 31% vs. 32% y/y, missing estimate 32.2%

Perhaps the most important two numbers had to do with CapEx, first historical which was above estimates:

• Capital expenditure $23.95 billion, +83% y/y, beating estimate $22.38 billion

Alphabet also posted an impressive FY capex guide of $91 billion to $93 billion, up from around $85 billion previously, and smashing estimates of $84.04 billion, reflecting continued spending on AI data centers and custom chips. Gemini, Google’s flagship AI model, is increasingly being woven across search, Android, and YouTube, helping to offset rising infrastructure costs.

The company also announced that Google Cloud ended the quarter with $155B in backlog, unveiled that it haddDouble-digit growth across every major business, and that its Gemini app now has over 650 million monthly active users.

As Bloomberg notes, Alphabet’s third-quarter results reinforced the AI investment boom that has powered megacap tech stocks and broader equity benchmarks to record highs. What’s more, Alphabet’s confident guidance and ramped-up capex suggest the AI spending cycle remains in full swing -- potentially adding fresh fuel to the trade that continues to define this bull market.

The results were strong enough to push the strong sharply higher after hours, rising as much as 7.5%, to a new record high.

That was the good news. The other two Mag 7s were not so good.

The next giga tech was Meta which reported Q3 earnings that were good, but not good enough for the market which was disappointed by the huge earnings charge, and its shares tumbled after hours. Here is the breakdown:

• Revenue $51.24 billion, +26% y/y, beating estimate $49.59 billion
  • Advertising rev. $50.08 billion, +26% y/y, beating estimate $48.59 billion
  • Family of Apps revenue $50.77 billion, +26% y/y, beating estimate $49.04 billion
  • Reality Labs revenue $470 million, +74% y/y, beating estimate $317 million
  • Other revenue $690 million, +59% y/y, beating estimate $597.4 million
• Operating income was $20.54 billion, up 18% y/y
• Operating margin 40% vs. 43% y/y

Despite the revenue beat, EPS was a big miss, printing at just $1.05 below the $6.76 estimate, and the result of a $15.93 billion charge on a tax bill. 

Some other details from the report: 

• Family of Apps operating income $24.97 billion, +15% y/y, estimate $24.79 billion
• Reality Labs operating loss $4.43 billion vs. loss $4.43 billion y/y, estimate loss $5.16 billion
• Ad impressions +14% vs. +7% y/y, estimate +10.8%
• Average price per ad +10% vs. +11% y/y, estimate +10.5%
  Average Family service users per day 3.54 billion, +7.6% y/y, estimate 3.48 billion

Looking ahead, Meta sees total expenses between $116 billion to $118 billion, an increase on the low end after it previously saw $114 billion to $118 billion, and above the estimate $115.63 billion

It also sees capital expenditure $70 billion to $72 billion, up from a range of $66 billion to $72 billion previously and above the estimate $69.3 billion.

The company says its Q4 revenue growth will be “partially offset by lower year-over-year Reality Labs revenue in the fourth quarter.” That may mean fewer headsets and glasses than anticipated at Christmastime. 

And while the results were generally in line, taking a $16 billion profit hit might just be too much for investors to ignore. And certainly the market was not delighted, sending META shares tumbling sharply lower after the close.

* * * 

The last Mag7 to report today was Microsoft, which also disappointed judging by the sharp drop in its price after hours.

Microsoft reported expansion in its Azure cloud computing unit that failed to impress investors who have grown optimistic about the business. While the Azure cloud-computing unit posted a 39% revenue gain in the quarter when adjusting for currency fluctuations, beating the Wall Street estimate of 37%, investor expectations for Microsoft were very high heading into earnings, with some buyside bogeys as high as the low 40s.

Here is what it reported for Q3: 

• Revenue $77.67 billion, beating estimate $75.55 billion 
  • Microsoft Cloud revenue $49.1 billion, beating estimate $48.6 billion
  • Intelligent Cloud revenue $30.9 billion, beating estimate $30.18 billion
  • Azure and other cloud services revenue Ex-FX +39%, beating estimate +37.1%
  • Productivity and Business Processes revenue $33.02 billion, beating estimate $32.29 billion
  • More Personal Computing revenue $13.76 billion, beating estimate $12.88 billion
• EPS $3.72, beating est. of $3.67
   
• Operating income $37.96 billion, beating estimates of $35.1 billion
• Capital expenditure $19.39 billion, beating estimate $23.04 billion
• Capital expenditures including assets acquired under finance leases $34.9 billion, above estimate $30.06 billion
• Revenue at constant currency +17%, beating estimate +13.4%

Of concern to investors is that Microsoft reported a steeper climb in spending than Wall Street expected, fueling anxieties about the high costs of providing AI infrastructure. First-quarter capital expenditures including leases, an indication of data center spending, came in at $34.9 billion, up from $24 billion in the preceding quarter. 

Microsoft continues “to increase our investments in AI across both capital and talent to meet the massive opportunity ahead,” Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella said in a statement.

The world’s largest software maker has seen rapid growth in its cloud computing business, thanks largely to a landmark partnership with leading artificial intelligence startup OpenAI. On Tuesday, the two companies revised their agreement, giving Microsoft access to OpenAI technology and its AI inference business for years to come. The updated pact was widely applauded on Wall Street.

And while the kneejerk stock reaction may well be a headfake as MSFT tends to provide forward-looking guidance on the call and it may once again surprise positively there, for now, however, the stock is down after the close if off the lows.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 16:37

"Democrats Are Panicking"; Larry Klayman Warns They Realize "The Only Way To Take Control Of A Society Is To Destabilize It"

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Just as predicted months ago by renowned attorney Larry Klayman, the Left continues to ramp up violence against ICE in the process of deporting millions of illegal aliens.  

Brace yourself for more savagery.  Klayman says, “It can only get worse..."

" President Trump has been incredibly successful in what he has done.  It’s not just shutting down the border or negotiating peace treaties.  It’s the record stock market, and the economy is generally doing very well. . . and inflation is coming down.  Because of that success . . . and even Bill Maher says Trump has been successful, the Democrats are panicking. 

They realize the only thing they can do is foment revolution. . .. They realize, as Karl Marx realized and Saul Alinsky realized, that the way you take control of a society is to destabilize it. 

You destabilize it by destroying Judeo-Christian values, and you destabilize it by creating civil unrest and revolution.”

InfoWars.com is reporting, “The Democrat Party is Officially Bragging that they are Going to Use the EBT/SNAP Benefit Shut Down to Trigger Mass Looting & Civil Unrest in the Hope of Igniting a Civil War.”  Klayman says:

“What was published by InfoWars was not way out.  It’s absolutely correct, and that is exactly what they are going to do.  It will be food riots and everything else...

We have seen two assassination attempts on President Trump.  We have seen a bounty on the head of Pam Bondi.  We have seen the assassination of Charlie Kirk. 

We have seen leaders from Chicago and the Governor (of Illinois) . . . the mayor of Boston, Massachusetts and all around the country, Portland and Seattle, are all calling for violence. 

We are in a situation where President Trump would be correct in using the Insurrection Act of 1807 and declaring martial law.  I believe he is about ready to do it.”

Klayman goes on to say, “You know what is interesting with regard to martial law?  There has never been a Supreme Court opinion that outlaws it..."

" We have used it 68 times in our nation’s history for riots.  It is perfectly legal, and it can be done by President Trump as a national declaration.  It is carried out by a military officer to quell unrest.  In the Insurrection Act, the President has to issue a proclamation, and then he can invoke that to quell unrest and civil disobedience that rises to the level of violence.  Those are two tools he can use here, and he ought to use them quickly.  He’s using the Insurrection Act now and in Chicago, and he’s going to the Supreme Court for clearance for that.”

In closing, Klayman points out, “It is a full court press to destroy us physically, and in terms of us to be able to bring lawsuits and defend lawsuits on behalf of conservative libertarian and religious interests in this country.  These people are the disciples of the devil—period, as Joe Biden used to say."

There is more in the 63-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with renowned lawyer and government corruption fighter, Larry Klayman, founder of FreedomWatchUSA.org for 10.29.25.

To Donate to USAWatchdog, click here.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 16:20

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell's Press Conference

Amid an absence of data to sway their minds one way (or another), it was hardly a surprise that Fed Chair Powell and his pals proceeded down the dovish/easing path once again today, following the market (and President Trump's) lead.

So what will Powell say?

As a reminder, in its preview, Goldman wrote that while the bank does not expect any formal guidance about the December meeting, if Chair Powell is asked, he will likely be comfortable referencing the September dots, which imply a third cut in December; although will likely make reference to the fact they are flying somewhat blind in the absence of macro data... It's hard to be data-dependent when there's no data.

There will also be questions about the end of QT, while Powell will likely address by referencing the recent jump in SOFR rates indicated money market liquidity is turning "scarce" although Powell will hardly use that word. If he does: watch out.

One question that has emerged is whether Schmid's hawkish dissent will embolden Powell to be more hawkish than the market expects and rugpull the market's December rate cut expectations. 

Watch the live press conference here (due to start at 1430ET):

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 14:25

Fed Cuts 25bps, Ends QT As Expected; Two FOMC Officials Dissent

In our preview we said that the Fed would cut 25bps and end QT... and that's precisely what happened.

*  *  *

First, a quick preview of how we got here: 

Since the last FOMC meeting (on Sept 17th), Gold has dramatically outperformed across asset-classes (even with its recent plunge) followed by US equities. Oil prices have tumbled the most while the dollar and bonds have risen in value. Bitcoin is basically unchanged since the last FOMC meeting, having collapsed after reaching record highs intramonth...

The market has grown more dovish since the last Fed meeting, now fully pricing in a 25bps cut today (and is almost certain that December will see another 25bps cut)...

More notably, rate-cut expectations have barely changed since the last FOMC with 46bps of cuts priced in for 2025 and 69bps more priced in for 2026...

Finally, before we get to the meat and potatoes of today's statement, we note that Goldman Sachs models show monetary policy at its most dovish in years...

And bear in mind that financial conditions have never been 'easier'...

So as we detailed in the FOMC preview, the two main questions for traders today is:

1) will the statement/presser provide support for the market's current dovish future take (given the market's anticipation of a 25bps cut, Goldman notes that it would likely be a high bar for the FOMC to change its plan on the basis of alternative data, and in any case the data have not given them any reason to), and,

2) will Powell officially announce the end of QT, as we discussed extensively in recent weeks (here and here), as a result of deteriorating conditions in money markets, the Fed is expected to announce changes to its balance sheet program. Fed Chair Powell suggested that the level of reserves will likely hit an ample level within a couple of months, although as we highlighted, the combination of reserves and reverse repos is now the lowest it has been since 2020 resulting in a creeping increase in the SOFR rate.

Meanwhile, usage of the Fedʼs repo facility has picked up, suggesting that some participants may be growing tighter on cash.

With that in mind, here are the key headlines from the FOMC Statement:

• The FOMC cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 bps to 3.75%-4.00%, as expected.
   
• The vote was 10-2, with two opposing dissenters (see below).
   
• The Fed announced that QT (aka the run-off of Treasury securities from the Fed’s balance sheet currently capped at $5 billion per month) would conclude on December 1, as also became consensus in recent days as a result of turmoil in funding markets.
   
• There were twp dissenting votes, one from Fed Governor Stephen Miran in favor of a 50-bps cut, and one from Jeffrey Schmid, who voted for no rate cut.

• The Fed statement maintains description of the labor market, noting that “job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remained low through August,” adding “more recent indicators are consistent with these developments” and “downside risks to employment rose in recent months”

Here is a statement redline...

... where the key highlights are the following:

• Replacing that economic activity has "moderated" with "expanding at a moderate pace", which is actually a bullish revision.
• Noting that while job gains have slowed "this year", the unemployment rate has edged up but "remained" low and added that "through August, more recent indicators are consistent with these developments."
• On inflation, the Fed added that inflation has moved up "since earlier this year" and remains somewhat elevated.
• On QT, the Fed said that the Committee "decided to conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings on December 1", which is a bit later than some had expected, as November had emerged as the target month for QT ending.

In its implementation note, the Fed clarified the details of how QT will end:

"Effective October 30, 2025, the Federal Open Market Committee directs the Desk to:

• Undertake open market operations as necessary to maintain the federal funds rate in a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent.
• Conduct standing overnight repurchase agreement operations with a minimum bid rate of 4.0 percent and with an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion.
• Conduct standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement operations at an offering rate of 3.75 percent and with a per-counterparty limit of $160 billion per day.
• Roll over at auction the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities maturing in October and November that exceeds a cap of $5 billion per month. Redeem Treasury coupon securities up to this monthly cap and Treasury bills to the extent that coupon principal payments are less than the monthly cap. Beginning on December 1, roll over at auction all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities.
• Reinvest the amount of principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) received in October and November that exceeds a cap of $35 billion per month into Treasury securities to roughly match the maturity composition of Treasury securities outstanding. Beginning on December 1, reinvest all principal payments from the Federal Reserve's holdings of agency securities into Treasury bills.
• Allow modest deviations from stated amounts for reinvestments, if needed for operational reasons."

Commenting on the statement, BBG rates strategist Ira Jersey was surprised by the “hawkish” dissent and adds that it "may change our opinion about the pace of cuts going forward, but there’s still little in the data to make us shift our opinion about the shape of the yield curve. There’s little in the statement or with the end of QT that’s likely to change the shape of the yield curve."

Jersey continues: “The timing of the decision was a coin flip, and the committee erred on the side of caution. Runoff will continue in November, before the Fed enters ‘net neutral’ on December 1. MBS runoff will continue at current pace and be used to fund T-bill purchases, while Coupon Treasury runoff will be reinvested in full at auction.”

Schmid's dissent prompted more questions, including this one from Renaissance macro's Neil Dutta: "I don’t think it really matters. In a divided Fed the best you can do is string a bunch of 25s out. But, Schmid’s dissent looks more perplexing than Miran’s in my view. After all, Schmid supported a 25bper in September and since then, we have seen inflation come in weaker than expected."

All we can say is Schmid better not have any outstanding mortgages. 

Tradestation strategy head David Russell points to the lack of data as a catalyst, but points out the growing dovish sentiment within the Fed which will only get stronger once Trump replaces Powell: "The Fed is grasping in the dark because of the shutdown, but the rate-cutting trend remains in place. Miran’s aggressive dissent is a reminder that change is coming at the Fed and the new chairman is likely to be more dovish.  The shutdown threatens to weigh on both jobs and consumption, so the bias toward easier policy may increase going forward."

KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk told BBG TV that “we are going to see a lot of tension going forward because this is a really difficult time. One, we’re flying blind. Two, we’ve got inflation is up and unemployment is edging up as well, and the labor market is slowing. You add all of that together and you get this sort of stagflation width, which is what makes this Fed likely to have more dissents that go in both directions going forward.”

Meanwhile, former Fed vice-chair who currently works at Pimco Richard Clarida, noted that he expects "to see more of this in the remainder of Powell’s term for sure. If you just looked at the dots, you have a pretty divided committee in terms of the case for preemptive cuts from here, with inflation at 3%."

Peter Boockvar at the Boock report goes one further and writes that while there was no real surprise, "the Schmid dissent makes me more confident that Jay Powell is going to push back on a December cut being the lay up the markets think it is."

And while Schmid dissent was a bit of a surprise, the bulk of the statement was largely in line with expectations, and as a result stocks have barely budged...

.. while 10Y yields and the dollar are fractionally higher ahead of Powell's presser which begins at 2:30pm.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 14:03

University Of Colorado TPUSA Student Leader Attacked After Antifa Posted "Hit List"

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

As Democratic leaders like Rep. Dan Goldman (D, N.Y.) insist that Antifa does not exist as a group, two Antifa groups — Front Range Antifa and Colorado Springs Antifa — put out a hit list poster on a University of Colorado sophomore and leader in Turning Point USA. He was promptly attacked by a person in the signature Antifa black outfit on roller blades who used a hockey stick to mete out the punishment.

According to a press release, Boulder Police are looking for a suspect accused of attacking a 19-year-old Turning Point USA student leader near the University of Colorado, Boulder on Thursday evening. The attacker is suspected to be an Antifa member and to have followed the victim in the premeditated attack.

The suspect is described as dressed in “all black clothing, a black ski mask, and had a green Gatorade bottle with an orange top in his back right pants pocket. He was skating with a hockey stick. The suspect fled the scene after the victim called 911, and Boulder Police and CU Police officers searched the area but did not locate him.”

Police added:

“In the interest of transparency, detectives are also confirming that they are aware that the victim was the subject of some social media posts and a digital flyer circulated by others prior to last night’s incident. Whether these played a role in the reported assault is part of the investigation, and police are not commenting further on this finding.”

The Antifa flyer accused the sophomore of being “an active member” of “neo-Nazi organizations” and is “responsible for white supremacist, antisemitic, and anti-LGBTQ vandalism on campus and across Boulder,” and also “participated in a white supremacist boxing tournament.” The Boulder Students for a Democratic Society reportedly shared the flyer on their social media. They encouraged followers to “share widely” and tag the school to notify them of a “Nazi activist on CU Boulder campus.”

The TPUSA student was not seriously injured, but the point was made by Antifa that any critics can be tracked down and attacked.

Recently, in a debate with my colleague Professor Mary Ann Frank on free speech, I objected when she repeated the often-used claim on the left that “if you oppose Antifa, you are by definition a fascist.” I noted that many in the free speech community have been threatened by this group, which is the most violent, anti-free speech movement in the United States.

At the same time, Democratic leaders are ramping up denials of the very existence of Antifa as a group in an effort to deflect criticism for their own increasingly rage-filled rhetoric at a time of rising political violence.

Recently, Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison (D) claimed that “nobody” knows what the left-wing terrorist organization Antifa is and that it does not exist. However, he previously promoted the “Antifa Handbook” in 2018 and praised the group as terrifying Trump. Now, however, he has joined the chorus of Antifa denials as political violence rises around the country.

As I previously wrote, it is reminiscent of how, roughly seventy years ago, FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover famously declared, “There is no organized crime in America.” Hoover’s stubborn denial of the existence of the mafia continued despite ample evidence to the contrary, from arrests to congressional testimony.

Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.) seemed to morph into Hoover before our very eyes, including a posting in which he challenged anyone to “name one member of ‘Antifa.’” The Justice Department then named two in another criminal prosecution of Antifa members.

Former House Judiciary Chair Jerrold Nadler (D-N.Y.) was widely ridiculed for denying the existence of Antifa.

Others on the left have joined Goldman in this absurd claim. Late-night host Jimmy Kimmel committed part of his monologue to assure viewers that Antifa is no more than a mythical “chupacabra.” “You understand there is no Antifa,” he said. “This is an entirely made-up organization.”

I have testified about Antifa before Congress, published columns on the organization for over a decade, and wrote a book discussing Antifa. I did oppose declaring Antifa a terrorist organization due to free speech concerns, but I also know that it is very real.

By design, Antifa avoids typical leadership hierarchies and organizational structures. Antifa was first created in the 1920s, associated with the Weimar-era German communist group Antifaschistische Aktion.

Many protesters belong to Antifa groups that have names like “Rose City Antifa” and offshoots like Love and Rage and Mexico’s Amor Y Rabia. Antifa members have been elected to the French and European parliaments.

Law enforcement officials, like former FBI Director Christopher Wray, have long debunked deniers like Goldman. “Antifa is a real thing,” said Wray.

Ironically, when many on the left are not denying its existence, they are rallying their members or actually selling Antifa merchandise. As noted above, former Democratic National Committee deputy chair Keith Ellison — now the Minnesota attorney general — proclaimed that Antifa would “strike fear in the heart” of Trump.

His own son, Minneapolis City Council member Jeremiah Ellison, declared his allegiance to Antifa in the heat of the protests this summer.

But, with Antifa violence on the rise, Democratic leaders have gone back to denying its existence even as Antifa deploys its signature black hoodies and masks.

The Colorado case shows just how real, violent, and organized this group is in the United States.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 13:40

Truck Hauling COVID, Herpes-Infected Monkeys Overturns

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

An aggressive monkey infected with COVID-19 and other diseases was on the loose in Jasper County, Mississippi, on Tuesday after a semi-truck carrying 21 primates overturned while transporting them from Tulane University to an out-of-state testing facility.

All 20 of the other infected rhesus monkeys were destroyed after the accident, according to the Jasper County Sheriff’s Department.

“We are continuing to look for the one monkey that is still on the loose,” the sheriff’s department reported on Facebook. “We have been in contact with an animal disposal company to help handle the situation.”

The monkeys weighed about 40 pounds each. They also carried hepatitis C, herpes, and COVID, but are not infectious, according to authorities.

The accident occurred at about 2 p.m. local time on Interstate 59 near mile marker 117, about 86 miles east of Jackson, Mississippi, near Heidelberg. The truck was headed to Florida, according to officials.

The sheriff’s department warned residents living around the area of the accident to not approach the monkeys.

“They do pose potential health threats and are aggressive,” the department posted.

The Mississippi Department of Wildlife, Fisheries, and Parks was on site with local law enforcement.

Tulane University was notified by authorities.

The university released a statement Tuesday night, saying the monkeys were not infectious.

“Non-human primates at the Tulane National Biomedical Research Center are provided to other research organizations to advance scientific discovery,” Tulane University said in a statement. “The primates in question belong to another entity and are not infectious.”

The sheriff’s office said the truck driver told authorities the monkeys were dangerous and posed a threat to humans.

“We took the appropriate actions after being given that information from the person transporting the monkeys,” the sheriff’s office said Tuesday night. “He also stated that you had to wear [personal protective equipment] to handle the monkeys.”

In 2020, the university received an anonymous $1 million gift to establish a fund for emerging research in infectious diseases. The money was meant to be used to support the institution’s research and provide immediate impact in the race to find a vaccine for COVID, according to the university’s school of medicine.

This is the second time research monkeys have escaped in the past year in the United States.

Late January saw the recapture of 43 monkeys that escaped from a South Carolina research facility. Residents were warned to secure their doors and windows until the monkeys were captured.

The animals broke loose from Alpha Genesis Primate Research Center in Yemassee, South Carolina. The last of them was recovered in January after living in the woods for two months. Rescuers tempted them back into captivity with peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, according to authorities.

The research facility—known locally as “the monkey farm”—breeds monkeys for medical research.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 13:00

Major Disruptions Reported Across Key Internet Services: Downdetector

A sudden spike in internet disruptions has been reported across major websites and services, according to Downdetector. 

Users are reporting outages at Google, Amazon.com, AWS, Microsoft (Azure, 365, Store, Teams, Entra), the XBOX network, Comcast's xfinity, Starbucks, and Alaska Airlines, to name a few. 

Microsoft announced they are investigating reports of issues with 365 services. 

According to reports there are ongoing outages at AWS' US-East-1 region, and is possibly related to an Oct. 20 outage. Further confirmation is needed. 

Developing...

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 12:35

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy Warns Of Nationwide Flight Delays Amid Government Shutdown

Authored by Kimberley Hayek via The Epoch Times,

Flight delays throughout the country could increase as more and more controllers call in sick over their first full missed paycheck due to the ongoing government shutdown, officials warned on Tuesday.

National Air Traffic Controllers Association (NATCA) President Nick Daniels also said that many air traffic controllers have temporarily taken on second jobs, citing living expenses such as housing, child care, food, and gas as their primary concerns. That number will increase the longer the shutdown continues, he said.

“This job is stressful enough,” Daniels said Tuesday at La Guardia International Airport in New York.

“We go to work day in and day out and make thousands of decisions. We do it five days a week. Most of us actually do it six and five is hard enough, and we do it in 10 hours a day. Now, you add in the fact that we had a partial paycheck already and we missed a full paycheck.”

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)—already short approximately 3,000 controllers who routinely work six-day, 10-hour shifts—has reported delays as a result of staffing gaps.

The FAA limits landings and takeoffs amid shortages, causing disruptions that last from 30 minutes to more than two hours long. Staffing shortages can even result in temporary ground stops.

Aviation data shows no sharp spike in overall delays, despite the government shutdown beginning Oct. 1.

Analytics firm Cirium determined that about 80 percent of flights at 14 major U.S. airports were on time this month, in line with historical patterns where approximately 20 percent of flights face delays longer than 15 minutes for various reasons.

Although a two-hour staffing-related ground stop at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) on Sunday caused numerous delays, Cirium data shows 72 percent of LAX flights departed on schedule that day.

Though Duffy and Daniels shared concerns over the overburdened workforce of about 30,000 air traffic controllers, they downplayed the risk of a strike.

“Air traffic controllers have to have 100 percent of focus 100 percent of the time,” Daniels said.

“And I’m watching air traffic controllers going to work. I’m getting the stories. They’re worried about paying for medicine for their daughter. I got a message from a controller that said, ‘I’m running out of money. And if she doesn’t get the medicine she needs, she dies. That’s the end.’”

Controllers held demonstrations at 20 airports nationwide, distributing leaflets calling for an end to the shutdown.

“We’re talking to our coworkers about how to get zero-interest loans,” Mike Christine, National Air Traffic Controllers Association’s (NATCA) eastern regional vice president, told Reuters.

New York-area controller Joe Segretto said the situation makes an already tough situation more difficult for trainees in a high-pressure line of work. The shutdown has disrupted hiring and training, contributing to the ongoing staffing shortage. The systems used by air traffic controllers are also dated, as the Government Accountability Office (GAO) underscores broader risks from aging ATC systems and sluggish modernization efforts in the sector.

“The pressure is real,” Segretto said. “We have people trying to keep these airplanes safe. We have trainees—that are trying to learn a new job that is very fast-paced, very stressful, very complex—now having to worry about how they’re going to pay bills.”

Daniels echoed this in a statement posted to the NATCA website on Oct. 24.

“The shutdown is adding stress to air traffic controllers and their families,” he wrote.

Duffy also said that the shutdown, now in its 28th day, has led to students dropping out of the air traffic controller academy in Oklahoma City, adding that it will therefore be harder to close the staffing gap at airports. He said younger controllers might choose a different career path because they can’t go without pay.

“This shutdown is making it harder for me to accomplish those goals,” Duffy said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 12:20

Venezuela Takes Action Against Trinidad & Tobago Over Hosting US Warship

Venezuela considers Trinidad and Tobago's cooperation with the US military as the Trump White House prepares for possible military action against the Caracas government to be a hostile act.

This after on Sunday the USS Gravely, which is outfitted with guided missiles, arrived in Trinidad to conduct joint exercises with Trinidad’s navy, but which was seen as a deep provocation by Caracas. 

Via Reuters

For starters, Venezuela's vice president Delcy Rodriguez said that key energy agreements with Trinidad and Tobago have been effectively canceled.

"Rodriguez, who is also Venezuela’s minister of hydrocarbons, said she would ask President Nicolas Maduro to withdraw from a 2015 agreement that enables neighboring countries to carry out joint natural gas exploration projects in the waters between both nations," AP detailed. After this, President Maduro declared, "I have approved the measure."

The USS Gravely is actually one of the very US naval vessels which has been involved in the campaign to destroy alleged drug trafficking speedboats off the Venezuelan coast.

"The prime minister of Trinidad has decided to join the war mongering agenda of the United States," Vice President Rodriguez said on national television Monday.

By Tuesday, Venezuela declared Trinidad and Tobago’s Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar to be persona non grata amid the escalating tensions.

Venezuela’s National Assembly quickly voted to impose the measure against Persad-Bissessar, formally barring her from entering the country.

STATEMENT: Venezuela denounces military provocation by Trinidad and Tobago in coordination with the CIA to provoke a war in the Caribbean pic.twitter.com/kS0EpaSGGT

— Camila (@camilapress) October 26, 2025

But interestingly Persad-Bissessar hit back, telling AFP, "Why would they think I would want to go to Venezuela?"

A mere seven miles of ocean lies between Trinidad and Venezuela at their closest point, but the Trinidad government is among the few Caribbean leaders to be openly supporting the major US military campaign in the region.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 12:00

CAPE Valuations: Does Nvidia Overstate Its Ominous Warning?

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

As equity valuations approach the record highs of 1999, investors are growing anxious. This unease is partly driven by the media issuing grim warnings, often based in part on CAPE valuations. Consider the following headlines and their summaries.

• The AI valuation bubble is now getting silly – The Guardian (Oct 8, 2025)

  • This article warns that concentration risk in the “Magnificent 7” is extreme. It notes the CAPE is at a dot-com bubble peak, suggesting that when the AI bubble bursts, there will be few places to escape the fallout.

• Extreme caution needed’: Why the Wall Street Boom Might End in Tears – Yahoo Finance (Oct 7, 2025)

  • This piece highlights that the CAPE ratio is more than double its long-term average, indicating lower returns ahead. It points out that extreme valuations have led to periods of weak returns or sharp corrections.

• Famed Warren Buffett Metric Shows Stock Valuations in Dangerous Territory – Business Insider (Oct 1, 2025)

  • This article notes that the CAPE ratio is near its highest level ever. It cites Fed Chair Powell, who called the market “fairly highly valued,” and highlights that 19 out of 20 Bank of America valuation measures are also historically elevated.

The graph shows the S&P 500 and CAPE since 1920. Given how the market performed after the prior two CAPE peaks (1999 and 1929), it’s not surprising to see headlines like the ones above that are fearful.

Instead of assuming that the CAPE ratios of 1929 and 1999 are comparable to today, it is helpful to recognize how Nvidia and a few other big stocks are skewing the CAPE, and what that may mean for the rest of the S&P 500.

First, we provide a brief overview of CAPE and its pros and cons. 

What Is CAPE?

CAPE, or the Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio, is a valuation tool based on long-term earnings trends. It differs from most valuation ratios in that it uses 10 years of earnings. Most popular valuation measures use the last year of fundamental data.

The benefit of the longer earnings lookback is that the model forms more accurate valuations based on secular trends and is much less influenced by short-term or one-time events that have little impact on future earnings growth.  

Some argue against the CAPE logic, claiming that past earnings trends are not indicative of future trends. We agree that for specific stocks, this is undoubtedly the case. However, as we show below, there has been a strong correlation between the earnings of the last ten years and those of the following ten years.  The orange and blue lines representing forward and past earnings are close to parallel. Any variance in them can be explained by the oscillating annualized EPS growth rate in green. As shown, it wavers between 4% and 8%.

Bottom line—using ten years of prior earnings has thus far proven to be a reasonable estimate of future earnings. Therefore, CAPE is a good measure to compare valuations over time.

CAPE – Long Term vs Short Term Return Forecasts

Using CAPE to estimate future returns is like betting on football games. According to Chat GPT, the odds of an NFL team winning when they are 14 or more points betting favorites are 85%. Therefore, such high odds should give us confidence in betting on which team will win. However, predicting the exact path to victory — such as when each team will score or the margin of victory — is nearly impossible.

Similarly, CAPE has proven highly reliable at predicting returns for the next 10 years, but it does not specify which months and years within that period will see gains or losses. Consider the two charts below, which compare CAPE levels to 10-year and 6-month forward returns. In the first chart, low CAPE levels indicate high forward returns and vice versa. At today’s level, we should expect returns for the next ten years in a relatively tight range between plus and minus 3%. However, the second graph shows no predictive reliability in forecasting the next six months based on CAPE levels. Based on that graph, we should expect annualized returns of ±30%.

Lastly, the bar chart below shows that the longer the time horizon, the better the correlation between CAPE valuations and forward returns.

Composition Skews CAPE

Due to the ever-changing nature of the S&P 500, every monthly CAPE calculation involves different weightings and sometimes different stocks. For example, the CAPE ratio of 1929 was heavily weighted with industrial, utility, and railroad companies. Today, it is technology-centric. As a more specific example, Nvidia contributed 0.50% to the S&P 500 in 2020. Currently, it accounts for almost 8%.

The Magnificent Seven (Nvidia, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla, and Meta) account for over a third of the index today. Given their surging market caps and earnings growth, those companies are having an outsized impact on CAPE.

For example, Nvidia, at 8% of the index, posted an EPS of $1.08 last quarter. Its average EPS over the previous ten years was a relatively paltry 18 cents. Does Nvidia’s CAPE reflect reality?

Nvidia And The Magnificent Seven Warp CAPE

Nvidia has a current CAPE ratio of 293, but a more reasonable P/E ratio of 48. Thus, we can reasonably argue that, given the recent surge in Nvidia’s earnings, CAPE is misleading. The same holds to some extent for many of the Magnificent Seven stocks, as we show below.

If we strip Nvidia out of the CAPE calculation, the CAPE for the remaining S&P 500 will fall by nearly 3 points. Moreover, if we take all the Magnificent Seven stocks out of the CAPE calculation, CAPE will decline from 41 to 33. The graph below shows how the Magnificent Seven stocks have increasingly warped the CAPE ratio over the last ten years.

Based on the graph above, we can still say the CAPE ratio is historically high, but it may not be as concerning as we originally thought.

Looking back to 1999, we find that Microsoft had a decent impact on CAPE. At the time, it was the index’s most significant contributor, accounting for 5%. Removing Microsoft from the 1999 CAPE calculation would have made it decline by 2. Removing Intel and Walmart, also in the top five in 1999, would have taken another one from CAPE. Exxon and GE, the remaining top five, had no material impact on the ratio. Simply put, the effect today from the largest stocks is greater than in 1999.

PEG Matters

What separates today from 1999 is current earnings growth. Investors are getting more for their CAPE valuation via recent earnings growth. Per Bloomberg,

 The Magnificent Seven and Broadcom Inc., which collectively account for 37% of the S&P 500, are expected to grow profits by an average of 21%.

Investors should be willing to pay high valuations for more growth, but can extraordinary growth rates for a handful of stocks continue? If so, high market valuations make a lot more sense.

Interestingly, some of the Magnificent Seven stocks, which have expensive P/Es but strong earnings growth, may be more conservative than the bulk of S&P 500 companies, which trade at high valuations but have little earnings growth.

To better appreciate this, we use the PEG ratio (Price/Earnings / Expected Growth). This ratio helps make P/E ratios comparable across companies and industries with different growth rates.

The FinViz heat map below shows the PEG ratio for the S&P 500 companies. Notice the sea of red—high PEG ratios — throughout the S&P 500. However, some of the Magnificent Seven, including MSFT, AMZN, NVDA, GOOG, and META, are pretty reasonable.

Other Valuations

A CAPE valuation of 30 versus 40 may ease the concerns of a few readers. However, we caution that the stock market peaked at a CAPE of 32 in 1929. No one valuation gauge will tell you where or when the top is. Conversely, high valuations need not revert to the historical norm. Over time, the average valuation can rise. Also, a reversion to average valuations can result from higher-than-expected earnings growth and stocks posting positive but small returns. 

With all those options to consider, we should still recognize that stock valuations are incredibly high, whether or not Nvidia and the other Magnificent Seven stocks are included.

To “fix” the CAPE10, ie, reduce the “Nvidia warp”, to better reflect current valuations, we present the CAPE 2 graph below, based on two years of prior earnings. As shown, the current level is below the levels in 2021 and 1999. However, it is well above the 1929 market top. The high readings of 2004 and 2010 occurred even as earnings were very low due to the respective recessions occurring in 2002/03 and 2008.  They were not representative of earnings during a more stable period of growth.

The table below, courtesy of BofA, lists 20 valuation measures along with their averages, minimums, maximums, and Z-scores. As it shows, all but one measure points to overvaluation. Moreover, 9 of the 20 Z-scores indicate that the respective valuations are more than two standard deviations above the long-term average.

Summary

Most of the straight P/E measures in the table above are around two standard deviations above the average. But both PEG measures, which encompass future growth, are within one standard deviation of each other. This reinforces the idea that the market is expensive but not grossly expensive if you think earnings growth forecasts are accurate.

 Another critical takeaway from this analysis- the market is making a big bet that a small handful of companies can keep powering strong earnings for the entire index.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 11:40

The Only Asset Down On The Year: Oil

Oil is back below $60, and CNBC’s @jimcramer just predicted an oil crash. It’s got to be the bottom. Time to buy oil and oil stocks. Also, low oil prices are great for precious metals mining stocks, so keep buying those too.

— Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) October 10, 2025

Oil stocks seem to be the only cheap equities on the market, but does that mean they are going higher? Join ZeroHedge for an actionable deep dive into everything affecting the oil market, moderated by former energy trader and macro-podcaster Erik Townsend.

Wednesday night at 7 pm ET, we bring together three pre-eminent voices in global energy:

• Arjun Murti (Partner, Veriten): With over 30 years on Wall Street, a former Partner and Co-Director of Americas Equity Research at Goldman Sachs and current Director at ConocoPhillips, Murti remains at the frontline of energy macro and policy.

• Paul Sankey (Founder, Sankey Research): A former lead U.S. oil & refining analyst at Deutsche Bank, Sankey has earned multiple Institutional Investor rankings and spent his career dissecting global oil equities, refining cycles and capital-markets dynamics.

• Mike McGlone (Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence): With more than 25 years in futures and commodity markets, McGlone drives commodity-market strategy at Bloomberg and offers deep insight into supply, demand and macro-commodity linkages.

They’ll each present differing but grounded views on key questions facing the market:

1. How are geopolitical events likely to affect prices?

2. Are technicals looking bullish or bearish?

3. Has the long-term investment thesis changed under the Trump era with Democrats notably quiet on the Green Transition which was supposed to arrive by 2030?

Oil Bears (paraphrasing): "When this chart I am publicly and regularly showing you of inventory build that everyone can see because we all have and love our Bloomberg Termimal shows up on a different chart of onshore inventories that is also readily found on our BBG Terminal, at… https://t.co/LRVQKdLmEl

— arjun⚡️murti (@ArjunNMurti) October 28, 2025

Details:

Date & Time: Tonight at 7 pm ET

Live Platforms: ZeroHedge homepage, X, YouTube, Rumble

This discussion brings together the sharpest energy-market minds in the world under one roof. Stay tuned for our live ZeroHedge Debate. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 11:20

WTI Selloff Stalls After Large Inventory Draws; US Crude Production Hit A New Record High

Oil prices held steady after a three-day drop as investors assessed the impact of Western sanctions against leading Russian crude producers, alongside a mixed industry estimate of US inventory changes.

President Trump will follow through and enforce harsh new sanctions against Moscow to pressure Vladimir Putin into negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, according to Matthew Whitaker, the US ambassador to NATO.

Indian state-owned refiners are considering whether they can continue to take some discounted Russian oil after the measures were imposed, though some processors will pause purchases for now.

On Tuesday, Indian Oil Corp. said it is “absolutely not going to discontinue” purchases of Russian crude as long as it complies with international sanctions.

“The market is now trying to assess the longer-term impact of the additional sanctions, which will be determined by the quantity of actual barrels removed from supply,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford said in a note.

Overnight prices stabilized after API showed across the board big inventory draws...

API

• Crude -4.0mm

• Cushing

• Gasoline -6.35mm

• Distillates -4.36mm

DOE

• Crude -6.86mm (-900k exp) - biggest draw in 7 weeks

• Cushing +1.334mm

• Gasoline -5.94mm - biggest draw since Oct 2024

• Distillates -3.36mm

The official inventory data confirmed the API's report with large drawdowns in inventories across crude and the products...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production rose to a new record high last week

Source: Bloomberg

WTI rallied modestly on the big crude draw

Source: Bloomberg

Oil is on track to notch a third monthly decline, with prices dragged lower by expectations of a global surplus as OPEC+ raises production. Key alliance nations are set to hold discussions this weekend, and may sign off on another supply increase. Traders are also tracking progress toward a US-China trade deal, with Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping due to meet on Thursday.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/29/2025 - 10:52