US Electric Vehicle Adoption Plummets

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

• EV interest among U.S. drivers has dropped to 16%, the lowest since 2019.

• Key deterrents include high upfront costs, limited charging infrastructure, and concerns over long-distance suitability.

• Hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles are gaining favor as more practical alternatives.

Just 16% of American drivers say they are likely to buy an electric vehicle (EV) as their next car—the lowest share recorded in AAA’s annual surveys since 2019.

High battery maintenance costs, high purchase prices, and concerns about range continue to be major deterrents for U.S. consumers to consider buying an EV, according to AAA’s latest survey released earlier this month.

These key barriers have remained more or less the same in recent years.

But this year three other factors have also played a role to result in the smallest share of American drivers considering an EV purchase—lower gasoline prices, the increasingly uncertain future of EV incentives such as tax credits and rebates, and politics.

Only 16% of U.S. adults reported in AAA’s 2025 survey that they are “very likely” or “likely” to purchase a fully EV as their next car. This compares to 25% in 2022, when gasoline prices of $5 per gallon incentivized more buyers to consider an EV purchase.

This year, the percentage of consumers indicating they would be “unlikely” or “very unlikely” to purchase an EV rose to 63%, up from 51% last year.

“While the automotive industry is committed to long-term electrification and providing a diverse range of models, underlying consumer hesitation remains,” said Greg Brannon, director of automotive engineering for AAA.

Consumers cited high battery repair costs and purchase prices as key barriers to go fully electric, at 62% and 59%, respectively. Other top concerns identified in this year’s survey were the perceived unsuitability of EVs for long-distance travel (57%), a lack of convenient public charging stations (56%), and fear of running out of charge while driving (55%).

Other barriers cited by the Americans unlikely to buy an EV include safety concerns cited by 31%, challenges installing charging stations at their residences for 27%, and 12% who are concerned that the tax credits and rebates will be reduced or eliminated.

Saving on gasoline costs is a key reason for interest in EVs this year—77% of Americans likely to buy an EV cited gas savings as their top motivation to purchase.

The reason, of course, is quite simple. Gasoline prices this spring hit their lowest level ahead of Memorial Day weekend in four years. A large part of the strong demand over Memorial Day weekend was due to the fact that the typical seasonal spike in the spring didn’t materialize, because oil prices – the single-biggest driver of gasoline prices—have lingered in the low $60s per barrel for weeks.

Uncertainty about incentives for EV purchases has started to play a larger role in drivers’ hesitancy to consider fully-electric vehicle purchases. Interest in EVs to take advantage of tax credits and rebates has plummeted—from 60% of those saying last year they are likely to buy an EV to 39% this year, per the AAA survey.

Moreover, fewer Americans now believe that most passenger cars would be EVs within a decade. The share of U.S. drivers who believe that most cars will be electric within the next ten years has plunged from 40% in 2022 to 23% this year.

Despite the fact that the availability of EV models in the U.S. market has soared in recent years, with many legacy carmakers seeking to compete with Tesla, Americans remain hesitant about purchasing electric cars.

Public perception about the future of EVs remains uncertain, AAA says, despite the more than 75 EV models introduced in the past four years.

For many drivers, hybrid or plug-in hybrid vehicles could be more appealing than full battery EVs as they combine the advantages of traditional internal combustion engines with electric power, reducing range anxiety while providing an environmentally friendly alternative, AAA says. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 06:30

US Manufacturing By State: Who Gains Most From 'Made In America'?

President Trump has championed the idea that a key part of making America great again is bringing back industries that left the country in recent decades. With his tariff-driven trade policy, the White House has promoted “Made in America” as a way to create jobs and boost the economy.

Based on April 2025 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this map, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, highlights the U.S. states leading and lagging in manufacturing employment.

California Leads in Manufacturing

Manufacturing remains geographically diverse across the U.S., with major hubs on both coasts and in the interior.

In terms of absolute numbers, California leads the nation, with 1.22 million manufacturing jobs. Texas follows with 970,600 jobs, while Ohio and Michigan maintain their traditional industrial strength with 687,500 and 597,600 jobs, respectively.

State Manufacturing Jobs Jobs per 100k California 1,222.9K 3094.0 Texas 970.6K 3101.9 Ohio 687.5K 5785.4 Michigan 597.6K 5893.2 Illinois 574.7K 4521.6 Pennsylvania 561.5K 4293.2 Indiana 523.3K 7557.5 Wisconsin 462.8K 7763.8 North Carolina 459.3K 4158.1 Florida 434.6K 1859.5 Georgia 426.5K 3814.5 New York 412.0K 2073.8 Tennessee 364.3K 5040.3 Minnesota 323.5K 5584.2 Alabama 287.5K 5574.2 Missouri 283.9K 4545.7 Washington 274.2K 3445.5 South Carolina 263.0K 4800.3 Kentucky 260.6K 5679.6 New Jersey 255.4K 2688.2 Virginia 243.5K 2763.5 Massachusetts 229.8K 3220.2 Iowa 217.2K 6700.6 Arizona 193.8K 2555.9 Oregon 181.7K 4252.9 Kansas 173.0K 5823.7 Arkansas 165.0K 5342.7 Utah 155.3K 4432.6 Connecticut 154.2K 4195.8 Colorado 150.1K 2519.5 Louisiana 143.8K 3127.6 Mississippi 140.8K 4784.2 Oklahoma 139.5K 3406.3 Maryland 110.4K 1762.7 Nebraska 103.3K 5150.9 Idaho 77.4K 3866.9 New Hampshire 68.2K 4840.2 Nevada 67.7K 2071.9 Maine 51.7K 3679.7 West Virginia 46.7K 2638.4 South Dakota 44.3K 4790.9 Rhode Island 40.1K 3605.1 New Mexico 29.5K 1384.8 North Dakota 27.9K 3502.5 Vermont 27.2K 4194.3 Delaware 26.7K 2538.2 Montana 20.8K 1829.0 Hawaii 13.1K 905.9 Alaska 11.9K 1607.8 Wyoming 10.6K 1803.9 District of Columbia 1.2K 170.9

Several Southern states have also built strong manufacturing bases. North Carolina (459,300), Georgia (426,500), and Tennessee (364,300) each rank among the top states, supported by industries such as automotive, aerospace, and food processing.

Wisconsin, ranked in the top 10 for total manufacturing employment, stands out for outperforming its size. Although it’s only the 20th most populous state, its manufacturing base remains strong, thanks in part to food and dairy processing. In per capita terms, it’s number one in the nation with 7,763.8 manufacturing jobs for every 100,000 people.

Florida, another top 10 state, has emerged as a growth story. Between 2019 and 2023, the state’s manufacturing employment grew by nearly 10%, highlighting the sector’s expansion in one of the country’s largest economies.

At the other end of the spectrum, Wyoming (10,600 jobs), Alaska (11,900), and Washington, D.C. (1,200) recorded the lowest levels of manufacturing employment. The latter (D.C.) also has the lowest numbers per capita.

To learn more about Trump’s impact in his first 100 days, check out this graphic that compares S&P 500 returns during post-WWII presidents’ first 100 days.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 05:45

US Manufacturing By State: Who Gains Most From 'Made In America'?

President Trump has championed the idea that a key part of making America great again is bringing back industries that left the country in recent decades. With his tariff-driven trade policy, the White House has promoted “Made in America” as a way to create jobs and boost the economy.

Based on April 2025 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, this map, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, highlights the U.S. states leading and lagging in manufacturing employment.

California Leads in Manufacturing

Manufacturing remains geographically diverse across the U.S., with major hubs on both coasts and in the interior.

In terms of absolute numbers, California leads the nation, with 1.22 million manufacturing jobs. Texas follows with 970,600 jobs, while Ohio and Michigan maintain their traditional industrial strength with 687,500 and 597,600 jobs, respectively.

State Manufacturing Jobs Jobs per 100k California 1,222.9K 3094.0 Texas 970.6K 3101.9 Ohio 687.5K 5785.4 Michigan 597.6K 5893.2 Illinois 574.7K 4521.6 Pennsylvania 561.5K 4293.2 Indiana 523.3K 7557.5 Wisconsin 462.8K 7763.8 North Carolina 459.3K 4158.1 Florida 434.6K 1859.5 Georgia 426.5K 3814.5 New York 412.0K 2073.8 Tennessee 364.3K 5040.3 Minnesota 323.5K 5584.2 Alabama 287.5K 5574.2 Missouri 283.9K 4545.7 Washington 274.2K 3445.5 South Carolina 263.0K 4800.3 Kentucky 260.6K 5679.6 New Jersey 255.4K 2688.2 Virginia 243.5K 2763.5 Massachusetts 229.8K 3220.2 Iowa 217.2K 6700.6 Arizona 193.8K 2555.9 Oregon 181.7K 4252.9 Kansas 173.0K 5823.7 Arkansas 165.0K 5342.7 Utah 155.3K 4432.6 Connecticut 154.2K 4195.8 Colorado 150.1K 2519.5 Louisiana 143.8K 3127.6 Mississippi 140.8K 4784.2 Oklahoma 139.5K 3406.3 Maryland 110.4K 1762.7 Nebraska 103.3K 5150.9 Idaho 77.4K 3866.9 New Hampshire 68.2K 4840.2 Nevada 67.7K 2071.9 Maine 51.7K 3679.7 West Virginia 46.7K 2638.4 South Dakota 44.3K 4790.9 Rhode Island 40.1K 3605.1 New Mexico 29.5K 1384.8 North Dakota 27.9K 3502.5 Vermont 27.2K 4194.3 Delaware 26.7K 2538.2 Montana 20.8K 1829.0 Hawaii 13.1K 905.9 Alaska 11.9K 1607.8 Wyoming 10.6K 1803.9 District of Columbia 1.2K 170.9

Several Southern states have also built strong manufacturing bases. North Carolina (459,300), Georgia (426,500), and Tennessee (364,300) each rank among the top states, supported by industries such as automotive, aerospace, and food processing.

Wisconsin, ranked in the top 10 for total manufacturing employment, stands out for outperforming its size. Although it’s only the 20th most populous state, its manufacturing base remains strong, thanks in part to food and dairy processing. In per capita terms, it’s number one in the nation with 7,763.8 manufacturing jobs for every 100,000 people.

Florida, another top 10 state, has emerged as a growth story. Between 2019 and 2023, the state’s manufacturing employment grew by nearly 10%, highlighting the sector’s expansion in one of the country’s largest economies.

At the other end of the spectrum, Wyoming (10,600 jobs), Alaska (11,900), and Washington, D.C. (1,200) recorded the lowest levels of manufacturing employment. The latter (D.C.) also has the lowest numbers per capita.

To learn more about Trump’s impact in his first 100 days, check out this graphic that compares S&P 500 returns during post-WWII presidents’ first 100 days.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 05:45

The Fed Is Very Worried About Tariff Passthrough Onto Prices

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The Fed, businesses, and consumers are all concerned over price hikes.

Worried About Prices?

Please consider the Atlanta Fed research article Worried about Tariff Passthrough onto Prices? So Are Business Execs.

Over the past couple of months, newswires have focused on the potential for elevated tariff rates to feed through into higher inflation and potentially affect output growth as well. Indeed, Chair Powell, in his last post-FOMC meeting press conference said, “What looks likely, given the scope and scale of the tariffs, is that…the risks to higher inflation, higher unemployment have increased.“

Recent research from economists at the Atlanta Fed suggests that if firms are able to pass through all the costs of tariffs, retail prices would increase significantly―as much as 1.6 percent (depending on how effective tariff rates evolve from here).

And even at a 50 percent passthrough rate, the impact on prices would be large enough to be felt in the aggregate (0.8 percent increase in retail prices). How plausible is full passthrough? Going back to the last episode with rising tariffs in 2018, research icon denoting destination link is offsite showed that the cost of the tariffs was almost entirely passed through onto domestic prices.

In this environment, where policy changes lead to sharp increases in costs for many firms, we were curious about how firms would respond, especially in light of a potential reduction in demand that typically accompanies a price hike. So, we turned to the Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey (BIE), a monthly survey of Sixth District firms that is well positioned to ask timely questions on economic conditions facing firms. In gathering information for the April 2025 BIE survey, we asked firms about their ability to pass through increased costs caused by a new economic policy without a resulting reduction in demand.

The interesting twist in this line of questioning is the inclusion of the phrase “Based on current levels of demand.” The interpretation here is that firms are telling us how much of the cost increase they would be able to pass through to customers before it had a negative impact on demand for that good or service.

Although a diversity of views is apparent, on average firms tell us they expect to be able to pass through 51.1 percent of a 10 percent cost increase, and 47.3 percent of a 25 percent cost increase, without reducing current levels of demand. 

In sum, firms with about normal or greater-than-normal sales expect to be able to pass through more of the cost increases while maintaining the same levels of demand for their goods or services. And figure 3 shows us that those firms are more likely to be larger firms, due to their smaller sales gap compared to “normal.” In the aggregate, business executives see their current sales levels as about 8 percentage points below “normal,” which is much weaker than firms’ relative position entering 2018. In this environment, firms on average anticipate passing through a little more than half of a 10 percent cost increase without damaging demand. It’s not yet clear where the average tariff rate will ultimately settle, or how firms’ passthrough rates will evolve from here. However, it does appear that most firms anticipate sacrificing demand should they choose to fully pass a tariff-related cost increase on to customers.

Only Three Things Can Happen

1. Corporations can pass on the tariffs

2. Corporations can eat the cost

3. A combination of the above

The Results

• To the extent corporations pass on the costs, consumers will pay the tariff. That means consumers will cut back somewhere else, exhaust savings, or go into debt.

• To the extent corporations eat the costs, that’s a direct hit on corporate profits.

• If corporations misjudge how much they can pass on, they will also take a hit on profits.

Corporate Profits

If you are thinking tariffs are a huge drain on aggregate corporate profits, then you are thinking correctly.

Fed Beige Book Shows Only 3 of 12 Regions Growing, 6 Declining

On June 5, 2025, I noted Fed Beige Book Shows Only 3 of 12 Regions Growing, 6 Declining

This report reeks of stagflation, defined as rising prices and recession simultaneously.

Prices

Prices have increased at a moderate pace since the previous report. There were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward. A few Districts described these expected cost increases as strong, significant, or substantial. All District reports indicated that higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices. 

ISM Services Dips Into Contraction as New Orders and Backlogs Plunge

On June 4, I noted ISM Services Dips Into Contraction as New Orders and Backlogs Plunge

“The Prices Index registered 68.7 percent in May, a 3.6-percentage point increase from April’s reading of 65.1 percent; the index has elevated 7.8 percentage points in the last two months to reach its highest level since November 2022 (69.4 percent). This is the first time the index has recorded this high of a two-month increase since a 9.2-percentage point gain in February and March 2021. The May reading is also its sixth in a row above 60 percent.”

What caught my eye was a plunge in new orders and backlog of orders, yet prices rose 96 consecutive months and just accelerated.

Should the Fed Cut? Hike? Do Anything?

Many say the Fed should cut because jobs are slowing and so is inflation.

But on the basis of tariffs and general disagreement about the rate of inflation, many others stating the Fed should hike rates.

Those who are open to either stagflation or economic collapse don’t think the Fed should do anything.

I am in that camp with the side note the free market should set rates, not the Fed, not Congress, not the President.

Is the Fed in a Good Spot?

That’s what the Fed says. I am not in that camp.

The economy can tip either way suddenly and severely. And Trump’s tariff whipsaws don’t make the Fed’s life easy.

Fear of Making Mistakes

The Fed does not want to make a policy error in the wrong direction especially after blowing the massive inflation response to Congressional free money coupled with inane QE by the Fed.

So, the Fed cannot be proactive now, even if it wants to, due to FOMMtm

Trumpian Howls

The Fed has its Covid mistake in the back of its mind but a howling Trump in the foreground.

Trump howled about Jerome Powell again on June 4, as noted in Trump Demands Fed Rate Cut After Weakest ADP Payroll Report in 2 Years

ADP reported a slim 37,000 private payroll rise for May.

The payroll report on Friday temporarily halted the howls.

For discussion, please see Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 139,000 Employment Declines by 696,000

The Fed may easily overreact or underreact. Right now the Fed looks like a deer in headlights.

Finally, the Fed will take a lot of criticism no matter what it does. And it will still have its recent policy mistakes in mind, while also having to deal with Trump.

Is this really a good place for the Fed?

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 05:00

The Fed Is Very Worried About Tariff Passthrough Onto Prices

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The Fed, businesses, and consumers are all concerned over price hikes.

Worried About Prices?

Please consider the Atlanta Fed research article Worried about Tariff Passthrough onto Prices? So Are Business Execs.

Over the past couple of months, newswires have focused on the potential for elevated tariff rates to feed through into higher inflation and potentially affect output growth as well. Indeed, Chair Powell, in his last post-FOMC meeting press conference said, “What looks likely, given the scope and scale of the tariffs, is that…the risks to higher inflation, higher unemployment have increased.“

Recent research from economists at the Atlanta Fed suggests that if firms are able to pass through all the costs of tariffs, retail prices would increase significantly―as much as 1.6 percent (depending on how effective tariff rates evolve from here).

And even at a 50 percent passthrough rate, the impact on prices would be large enough to be felt in the aggregate (0.8 percent increase in retail prices). How plausible is full passthrough? Going back to the last episode with rising tariffs in 2018, research icon denoting destination link is offsite showed that the cost of the tariffs was almost entirely passed through onto domestic prices.

In this environment, where policy changes lead to sharp increases in costs for many firms, we were curious about how firms would respond, especially in light of a potential reduction in demand that typically accompanies a price hike. So, we turned to the Atlanta Fed’s Business Inflation Expectations survey (BIE), a monthly survey of Sixth District firms that is well positioned to ask timely questions on economic conditions facing firms. In gathering information for the April 2025 BIE survey, we asked firms about their ability to pass through increased costs caused by a new economic policy without a resulting reduction in demand.

The interesting twist in this line of questioning is the inclusion of the phrase “Based on current levels of demand.” The interpretation here is that firms are telling us how much of the cost increase they would be able to pass through to customers before it had a negative impact on demand for that good or service.

Although a diversity of views is apparent, on average firms tell us they expect to be able to pass through 51.1 percent of a 10 percent cost increase, and 47.3 percent of a 25 percent cost increase, without reducing current levels of demand. 

In sum, firms with about normal or greater-than-normal sales expect to be able to pass through more of the cost increases while maintaining the same levels of demand for their goods or services. And figure 3 shows us that those firms are more likely to be larger firms, due to their smaller sales gap compared to “normal.” In the aggregate, business executives see their current sales levels as about 8 percentage points below “normal,” which is much weaker than firms’ relative position entering 2018. In this environment, firms on average anticipate passing through a little more than half of a 10 percent cost increase without damaging demand. It’s not yet clear where the average tariff rate will ultimately settle, or how firms’ passthrough rates will evolve from here. However, it does appear that most firms anticipate sacrificing demand should they choose to fully pass a tariff-related cost increase on to customers.

Only Three Things Can Happen

1. Corporations can pass on the tariffs

2. Corporations can eat the cost

3. A combination of the above

The Results

• To the extent corporations pass on the costs, consumers will pay the tariff. That means consumers will cut back somewhere else, exhaust savings, or go into debt.

• To the extent corporations eat the costs, that’s a direct hit on corporate profits.

• If corporations misjudge how much they can pass on, they will also take a hit on profits.

Corporate Profits

If you are thinking tariffs are a huge drain on aggregate corporate profits, then you are thinking correctly.

Fed Beige Book Shows Only 3 of 12 Regions Growing, 6 Declining

On June 5, 2025, I noted Fed Beige Book Shows Only 3 of 12 Regions Growing, 6 Declining

This report reeks of stagflation, defined as rising prices and recession simultaneously.

Prices

Prices have increased at a moderate pace since the previous report. There were widespread reports of contacts expecting costs and prices to rise at a faster rate going forward. A few Districts described these expected cost increases as strong, significant, or substantial. All District reports indicated that higher tariff rates were putting upward pressure on costs and prices. 

ISM Services Dips Into Contraction as New Orders and Backlogs Plunge

On June 4, I noted ISM Services Dips Into Contraction as New Orders and Backlogs Plunge

“The Prices Index registered 68.7 percent in May, a 3.6-percentage point increase from April’s reading of 65.1 percent; the index has elevated 7.8 percentage points in the last two months to reach its highest level since November 2022 (69.4 percent). This is the first time the index has recorded this high of a two-month increase since a 9.2-percentage point gain in February and March 2021. The May reading is also its sixth in a row above 60 percent.”

What caught my eye was a plunge in new orders and backlog of orders, yet prices rose 96 consecutive months and just accelerated.

Should the Fed Cut? Hike? Do Anything?

Many say the Fed should cut because jobs are slowing and so is inflation.

But on the basis of tariffs and general disagreement about the rate of inflation, many others stating the Fed should hike rates.

Those who are open to either stagflation or economic collapse don’t think the Fed should do anything.

I am in that camp with the side note the free market should set rates, not the Fed, not Congress, not the President.

Is the Fed in a Good Spot?

That’s what the Fed says. I am not in that camp.

The economy can tip either way suddenly and severely. And Trump’s tariff whipsaws don’t make the Fed’s life easy.

Fear of Making Mistakes

The Fed does not want to make a policy error in the wrong direction especially after blowing the massive inflation response to Congressional free money coupled with inane QE by the Fed.

So, the Fed cannot be proactive now, even if it wants to, due to FOMMtm

Trumpian Howls

The Fed has its Covid mistake in the back of its mind but a howling Trump in the foreground.

Trump howled about Jerome Powell again on June 4, as noted in Trump Demands Fed Rate Cut After Weakest ADP Payroll Report in 2 Years

ADP reported a slim 37,000 private payroll rise for May.

The payroll report on Friday temporarily halted the howls.

For discussion, please see Nonfarm Payrolls Rise by 139,000 Employment Declines by 696,000

The Fed may easily overreact or underreact. Right now the Fed looks like a deer in headlights.

Finally, the Fed will take a lot of criticism no matter what it does. And it will still have its recent policy mistakes in mind, while also having to deal with Trump.

Is this really a good place for the Fed?

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 05:00