Indians Are The Most Positive On AI; Americans The Most Negative

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is reshaping industries, governments, and societies—but how do people around the world actually feel about that?

In this visualization, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu shows public attitudes towards artificial intelligence across 21 countries, based on a global AI survey of over 1,000 people in each country. Respondents were asked to rate their overall opinion on AI, ranging from “very positive” to “very negative”.

The data for this visualization comes from the Global Public Opinion on Artificial Intelligence (GPO-AI), published by the Schwartz Resiman Institute for Technology and Society.

Emerging Economies Lead in AI Optimism

India topped the global AI survey with 43% of respondents expressing a “very positive” opinion of AI. Kenya (29%) and Brazil (27%) followed closely behind.

These results suggest that populations in emerging economies are more enthusiastic about the potential benefits of AI—perhaps due to expectations for job creation, economic development, or improvements in public services.

Neutral Sentiment in Advanced Economies

In contrast, a majority in developed countries held neutral views. In Japan, 44% of people said they felt neutral about AI, followed by Germany (40%) and Poland (40%).

This more cautious stance could reflect greater exposure to discussions on AI ethics, job displacement, and regulation.

Negative Views Strongest in the West

The U.S., France, and Australia reported the highest shares of negative sentiment.

For instance, 34% of U.S. respondents had either a “fairly” or “very negative” view of AI. Such skepticism might be tied to political divides, concerns about misinformation, or fears of job loss in white-collar industries.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Capital Expenditure by Hyperscalers on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 20:25

What's Standing In The Way Of A Grand Compromise On Ukraine?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The onus is now on Zelensky to reciprocate Putin’s widely perceived willingness to compromise for peace.

Putin and Trump publicly confirmed that they found a lot of common ground during their three-hour-long talks in Anchorage, but no grand compromise on Ukraine was reached due to “a couple of big [points]…One is probably the most significant” that remain unresolved according to Trump. Putin’s reaffirmation of the need to “eliminate the primary causes of the conflict” and Trump mentioning how Zelensky will “have to agree” with what the US achieved so far strongly hints at what these could be.

As a reminder, Russia’s official goals in the conflict are to:

1. demilitarize Ukraine; denazify it;

2. restore the country’s constitutional neutrality;

3. and obtain recognition of the on-the-ground reality.

Putin suggested that he’s become more flexible as of late, which was likely responsible at least in part for why he and Trump just met as well as for Trump’s positive assessment of their talks, so he could hypothetically compromise on one, some, or all of these goals.

This places the onus on Zelensky to reciprocate.

In the order that Putin’s goals were mentioned, Trump therefore likely expects Zelensky to either agree to:

• curtail the size of his armed forces after the conflict ends;

• get the Rada to criminalize the glorification of WWII-era Ukrainian Nazi collaborators and/or rescind anti-Russian legislation;

• have them remove the 2019 constitutional amendment about seeking NATO membership;

• and/or amend the constitution to more easily cede land without first having to hold a successful All-Ukrainian referendum on this issue.

Trump also said that he’ll “call up NATO”, likely referring to the leaders of key NATO countries, who he seemingly expects to facilitate a grand compromise by correspondingly:

• agreeing not to deploy troops to Ukraine and/or agreeing to curtail arms exports to it;

• “creatively encouraging” the Rada to pass the aforesaid socio-political, neutrality, and/or territorial cession reforms (e.g. threatening to curtail aid if they don’t);

• and/or explicitly declaring that they’ll no longer approve Ukraine’s NATO membership bid.

They might not do so willing, however, so it’s possible that Trump could:

• greatly reduce or even abandon the scale of mid-July’s scheme to sell new US arms to NATO for passing along to Ukraine;

• threaten to cut off all military ties with any country that deploys troops to Ukraine;

• threaten to impose more tariffs on countries that don’t “creatively encourage” the Rada to pass the aforesaid reforms;

• and/or threaten to reduce the US’ role in NATO if members don’t explicitly declare their opposition to Ukraine joining.

If Trump and his NATO subordinates convince Zelensky to agree to some of these compromises, then Putin might agree to:

• Ukraine retaining a larger military than what was agreed to in spring 2022’s draft peace treaty;

• not pursue full-fledged denazification (e.g. tacitly accepting that traces of this ideology will remain in Ukrainian society);

• not object to Ukraine’s limited bilateral cooperation with NATO members;

• and/or indefinitely freeze Russia’s territorial claims (i.e. still retain but not actively pursue them).

This pathway towards a grand compromise could be derailed by: a Ukrainian false-flag provocation against civilians that turns Trump against Russia; a false-flag provocation elsewhere like in the Baltic Sea to the same end; and/or any serious expansion of Russia’s ground campaign beyond the disputed regions.

Trump might not be misled by any false flags while Putin might limit the scope of the special operation as a “goodwill gesture”, however, so peace is possible if Zelensky finally agrees to compromise.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 19:50

Average American To Receive $3,752 Tax Cut In 2026 Due To OBBBA

Authored by Thérèse Boudreaux via The Center Square,

The White House is touting a new economic analysis that estimates taxpayers will see an average $3,752 tax cut in 2026, due to provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

According to the nonpartisan Tax Foundation report, taxpayers in every state will see reduced federal taxes next year and though there is “considerable geographic variation” in tax benefits.

“President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill is the largest, most consequential tax cut on the middle class ever,” White House Deputy Press Secretary Anna Kelly said Friday.

“Between lower inflation, massive investments, and historic tax cuts, all Americans are reaping the benefits of the Trump Economy – and the Golden Age has just begun.”

Republicans’ multitrillion-dollar OBBBA, among other things, made permanent the expiring 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act’s across-the-board reduced tax rates; $15,000 standard deduction; $2,000 Child Tax Credit; 20% QBI deduction for small businesses; and $750,000 home mortgage interest deduction cap.

Three key business tax credits were made permanent as well – full reimbursement for new capital investments like machinery and equipment, an expanded deduction for corporation’s interest on debt, and immediate deductions for companies’ research costs.

The OBBBA also implemented a host of temporary tax provisions set to expire in 2030, including a quadrupling of the $10,000 state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap; a $6,000 deduction for seniors; and temporary tax deductions for tips and overtime pay, capped for single filers at $25,000 and $12,500, respectively.

Taken together, the Tax Foundation analysis estimates that the OBBBA’s tax provisions will lower individuals’ taxes in every state and create 938,000 full-time jobs in the long run.

Individuals in Wyoming, Washington, and Massachusetts will see the largest average tax cuts in 2026 – hovering around $5,100 – while residents of West Virginia and Mississippi will see the smallest average tax cuts that year, around $2,400.

On a more local level, taxpayers in mountain resort towns will receive the highest average tax benefits while taxpayers in rural counties will receive the lowest tax benefits.

Once the temporary tax provisions expire, however, the average tax cut will fall to $2,505 in 2030, then climb to $3,301 by 2035 due to inflation.

Although individual households will benefit from the tax cuts, the country’s fiscal health likely won’t, according to budget watchdogs like the Congressional Budget Office. CBO estimates that the trillions in lost federal revenue will add an extra $4.1 trillion to the national debt by 2034.

The U.S. national debt just topped $37 trillion, as The Center Square reported.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 18:40

California Democrats Unveil Proposed Congressional Map To Counter Texas Redistricting

California Democratic lawmakers unveiled on Friday a proposed redrawn state congressional map they intend to place on the November ballot amid a redistricting battle with Texas.

The proposed congressional map is expected to give Democrats five additional seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 election, which Democratic lawmakers said was a response to Texas Republicans’ redistricting plan.

As Aldgra Fredly reports for The Epoch Times, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) said in a statement that the proposed map is consistent with guidelines laid out by the independent California Citizens Redistricting Commission.

“It allows for more compact districts than in the current Commission-drawn map, keeps more communities and neighborhoods together, splits fewer cities, and makes minimal disruptions to the Commission-drawn map so as to impact as few residents as possible,” DCCC Executive Director Julie Merz stated in a letter accompanying the proposed map.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom said they would introduce a legislative package next week aimed at allowing state voters to decide on whether to adopt the proposed constitutional amendment without going through the state’s independent redistricting commission.

The package also includes a bill enabling the new congressional map to take effect if other states redraw districts, and another bill authorizing reimbursement of costs to administer the election.

The governor accused President Donald Trump and Republicans of undermining democracy with a plan to redraw the congressional map in Texas.

“This moment calls for urgency and action—that is what we are putting before voters this November, a chance to fight back against his anti-American ways,” Newsom said.

California’s First Congressional District is currently anchored in the state’s conservative far northeast corner and is represented by Republican Rep. Doug LaMalfa. The district has a nearly 18-point GOP registration edge.

Under the proposal, Democrats would end up with a 10-point registration advantage there after drastic reshaping to include parts of heavily Democratic Sonoma County near the Pacific Coast.

LaMalfa has criticized the proposed congressional map.

“How on earth does Modoc County, on the Nevada and Oregon border, have any common interest with Marin County and the Golden Gate Bridge? Voters took this power from Sacramento for just this reason,” he stated.

“This is naked politics at its worst.”

The move came as Texas Republicans proposed a new congressional map after the U.S. Department of Justice suggested that several districts in Texas are likely unconstitutionally created by grouping minorities to form a majority.

The redistricting proposal, which would flip five Democratic seats in the 2026 election, prompted more than 50 Texas Democratic lawmakers to leave the state in early August and break quorum in a bid to block the plan from moving forward.

They mostly sought refuge in Illinois, where Gov. JB Pritzker vowed to protect them from extradition or other legal threats leveled by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Others fled to New York and California, both led by Democrats.

Abbott has accused Democrats of gerrymandering in the past and said his state could go further than California when it comes to redistricting.

“Look at the map of Illinois. Look at the map they gerrymandered a long time ago. They got nothing left with regard to what they can do,” he said on CNN on Aug. 11.

“And know this: If California tries to gerrymander, find more districts, listen, Texas has the ability to eliminate 10 Democrats in our state.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 18:05

Child Gender Clinics Are Shutting Down Across US

Authored by Kurt Miceli via RealClearWire,

Here’s some good news you may not have heard. From coast to coast, child gender clinics are shutting down, thanks to the leadership of the Trump administration. Children are safer because of these closures—protected from radical transgender ideology and the sex changes that threaten their bodies, minds, and futures.

The latest gender clinic to announce its closure is at Connecticut Children’s Medical Center, which confirmed this news on July 23. Just one day earlier, the gender clinic at the Children’s Hospital in Los Angeles closed. The L.A. clinic was one of the first and largest in the country, subjecting hundreds of children to invasive and irreversible transgender treatments, including hormones and surgeries. Do No Harm, where I work, has documented nearly 20 gender clinics and programs either pausing child sex changes or shutting down since the start of the year.

This progress is the direct result of the Trump administration’s January executive order, which directed federal agencies to prohibit hospitals from getting federal funding if they provide so-called “gender-affirming care” to minors. In reality, such care is neither caring nor gender-affirming. It forces confused children to become something they’re not, because, as studies show, the vast majority of these kids wouldn’t try to change genders if they simply waited. Yet once they’re pushed down the sex-change road, they very often can’t fully go back, and they very often have lifelong physical and mental health complications.

Taxpayers should never be forced to support this medical and moral nightmare. Children should be able to develop naturally, especially those who are confused. They don’t need a dangerous cocktail of off-label chemicals or sex-change surgeries. Yet that’s what activists have long demanded, and medical associations and many providers largely gave into their demands instead of putting children’s health first.

To this day, the medical establishment is dominated by those activists, and they’re loudly lamenting the closure of these clinics. But they’re very clearly ignoring the evidence.

Look no further than the recently shuttered clinic at the Children’s Hospital at Los Angeles. The clinic’s leader, the famous transgender activist Dr. Johanna Olson-Kennedy, became infamous last year when she refused to release the findings of her own taxpayer-funded study on gender-confused kids. She finally relented under pressure in May, and lo and behold, it turns out that puberty blockers aren’t associated with improvement in kids’ mental health. Dr. Olson-Kennedy’s own research undercuts the entire argument for child sex changes—that it will help them become healthier and happier with who they are.

The evidence is mounting that child sex changes are built on a foundation of lies—and incredibly dangerous to those who receive them. In June, a new study found that boys taking feminizing hormones are far more likely to have strokes and develop various cancers. In fact, they’re up to 40 times more likely to develop breast cancer. Other studies show that girls taking testosterone are in for a world of physical pain, as well.

The Trump administration has grounded its actions in this medical research, whereas the medical establishment has largely put radical ideology ahead of real evidence. That fact was on full display earlier this year, after the Department of Health and Human Services released its groundbreaking analysis of the state of medical research on sex changes for kids. The report concluded that there’s “very weak evidence of benefit” to kids, but there are “significant risks,” including irreversible harms like infertility. Rather than acknowledge reality, medical groups and hospitals rushed to condemn the report and defend their desire to continue endangering children’s health and well-being.

Thankfully, that danger is beginning to fade, now that child gender clinics are shutting down. But there’s more work to do when it comes to protecting children. The clinics and programs that have closed only account for about 13 percent of the child sex change treatments that Do No Harm has documented from 2019 to 2023 alone. Another 28 percent of children who suffered from this ideology lived in states that have since banned child sex changes. But that leaves a lot of states and hospitals that are still putting a majority of America’s children at risk.

The Trump administration shouldn’t rest until everyone who’s endangering children is held accountable—and every child in America is safe.

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 17:30

Child Gender Clinics Are Shutting Down Across US

Authored by Kurt Miceli via RealClearWire,

Here’s some good news you may not have heard. From coast to coast, child gender clinics are shutting down, thanks to the leadership of the Trump administration. Children are safer because of these closures—protected from radical transgender ideology and the sex changes that threaten their bodies, minds, and futures.

The latest gender clinic to announce its closure is at Connecticut Children’s Medical Center, which confirmed this news on July 23. Just one day earlier, the gender clinic at the Children’s Hospital in Los Angeles closed. The L.A. clinic was one of the first and largest in the country, subjecting hundreds of children to invasive and irreversible transgender treatments, including hormones and surgeries. Do No Harm, where I work, has documented nearly 20 gender clinics and programs either pausing child sex changes or shutting down since the start of the year.

This progress is the direct result of the Trump administration’s January executive order, which directed federal agencies to prohibit hospitals from getting federal funding if they provide so-called “gender-affirming care” to minors. In reality, such care is neither caring nor gender-affirming. It forces confused children to become something they’re not, because, as studies show, the vast majority of these kids wouldn’t try to change genders if they simply waited. Yet once they’re pushed down the sex-change road, they very often can’t fully go back, and they very often have lifelong physical and mental health complications.

Taxpayers should never be forced to support this medical and moral nightmare. Children should be able to develop naturally, especially those who are confused. They don’t need a dangerous cocktail of off-label chemicals or sex-change surgeries. Yet that’s what activists have long demanded, and medical associations and many providers largely gave into their demands instead of putting children’s health first.

To this day, the medical establishment is dominated by those activists, and they’re loudly lamenting the closure of these clinics. But they’re very clearly ignoring the evidence.

Look no further than the recently shuttered clinic at the Children’s Hospital at Los Angeles. The clinic’s leader, the famous transgender activist Dr. Johanna Olson-Kennedy, became infamous last year when she refused to release the findings of her own taxpayer-funded study on gender-confused kids. She finally relented under pressure in May, and lo and behold, it turns out that puberty blockers aren’t associated with improvement in kids’ mental health. Dr. Olson-Kennedy’s own research undercuts the entire argument for child sex changes—that it will help them become healthier and happier with who they are.

The evidence is mounting that child sex changes are built on a foundation of lies—and incredibly dangerous to those who receive them. In June, a new study found that boys taking feminizing hormones are far more likely to have strokes and develop various cancers. In fact, they’re up to 40 times more likely to develop breast cancer. Other studies show that girls taking testosterone are in for a world of physical pain, as well.

The Trump administration has grounded its actions in this medical research, whereas the medical establishment has largely put radical ideology ahead of real evidence. That fact was on full display earlier this year, after the Department of Health and Human Services released its groundbreaking analysis of the state of medical research on sex changes for kids. The report concluded that there’s “very weak evidence of benefit” to kids, but there are “significant risks,” including irreversible harms like infertility. Rather than acknowledge reality, medical groups and hospitals rushed to condemn the report and defend their desire to continue endangering children’s health and well-being.

Thankfully, that danger is beginning to fade, now that child gender clinics are shutting down. But there’s more work to do when it comes to protecting children. The clinics and programs that have closed only account for about 13 percent of the child sex change treatments that Do No Harm has documented from 2019 to 2023 alone. Another 28 percent of children who suffered from this ideology lived in states that have since banned child sex changes. But that leaves a lot of states and hospitals that are still putting a majority of America’s children at risk.

The Trump administration shouldn’t rest until everyone who’s endangering children is held accountable—and every child in America is safe.

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 17:30

Escobar: Putin-Trump Summit Went Much Better Than Expected

There are few details about what exactly was discussed in the meeting, but Russian officials have made it clear that they’re pleased with how it went, says veteran geopolitical analyst, Pepe Escobar.

There were even some indications that a serious US-Russia reset could be on the horizon.

"Even according to President Trump himself, they came to agreement on several important points and only a few are left.

So this implies, serious discussions not only about Ukraine, a possible resolution in Ukraine, and of course we we have no idea about the terms and the parameters, but a reset, a serious reset of US-Russia relations."

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 16:55

Escobar: Putin-Trump Summit Went Much Better Than Expected

There are few details about what exactly was discussed in the meeting, but Russian officials have made it clear that they’re pleased with how it went, says veteran geopolitical analyst, Pepe Escobar.

There were even some indications that a serious US-Russia reset could be on the horizon.

"Even according to President Trump himself, they came to agreement on several important points and only a few are left.

So this implies, serious discussions not only about Ukraine, a possible resolution in Ukraine, and of course we we have no idea about the terms and the parameters, but a reset, a serious reset of US-Russia relations."

 

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 16:55

The post Dumb, Dumber, and Dumbest: Native Born Employment is Not Surging appeared first on CEPR.

Two Charts Of Extremely Perverse Incentives

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

As a thought experiment, consider these changes to our economy's incentive structure.

Warren Buffett's partner Charlie Munger had a maxim: Show me the incentives, and I'll show you the outcome. With that in mind, let's look at two charts.

The first is a chart depicting the use of ChatGPT. (Source: OpenAI Usage Plummets in the Summer, When Students Aren't Cheating on Homework.)

Usage fell by 2/3 once classes ended, and the dips in use during the Spring align with weekends.

There are any number of conclusions we can draw, but let's start with another of Munger's maxims: why? The reason is obvious: students are required to do homework as part of the learning process, and are incentivized to complete their homework so they pass the class.

So they use generative AI tools to either help them complete their homework or do their homework for them. We can't tell which option they selected without testing their knowledge without any digital devices within reach to help them.

Note the incentives are to complete the homework, not to master the material. That's a big difference, and it's the foundation of our entire system of education: pass the class, accumulate credits, and you will be issued a credential / diploma certifying that you passed X number of classes.

This incentive leads to students learning very little despite spending a fortune and four years attending college courses. Consider the study Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses which concluded that "American higher education is characterized by limited or no learning for a large proportion of students."

The institutions of education are incentivized to issue credentials that cost a lot of money and time. The causal link between learning and doing homework is now weak, as generative AI can do their homework for them.

The obvious solution is to issue educational credentials only for passing exams given in real time without any digital devices allowed. In other words, test the students' actual learning / knowledge, rather than tote up homework completed and classes passed.

In other words, accredit the student, not the institution. This was a key suggestion in my book The Nearly Free University.

The testing would have to be lengthy and clever enough to demand real mastery rather than superficial recall / memory, and it would have to be closely guarded and the component exams would have to be issued semi-randomly to each student at the moment the testing began, to minimize gaming the test or cheating.

In this incentive system, if a well-educated 17-year old passed the entire battery of university accreditation tests, they would be issued a university diploma without attending a single class because the system accredits the student, not the institution.

In my book Get a Job and Build a Real Career, I take this one step further, outlining a path to accredit yourself.

What the existing system incentivizes is becoming dependent on generative AI while learning very little because there is little incentive for actual learning. There are also no incentives for those within the institutions to focus on students learning essential skills and knowledge.

Imagine if the wildly unproductive belief that "everyone has to go to college" was replaced with a system that enabled students to choose to learn skills on a broad spectrum, from welding to calculus.

Imagine if every employee in the school / university received minimum-wage paychecks if the students learned very little and received a bonus if the students passed rigorous tests documenting that they'd learned skills and knowledge that are useful in life and in the real economy.

Imagine if every student who passed the tests was given a paid internship in their field of choice.

Instead, we incentivize students in insert typos into their chatbot-composed papers to make it appear that they actually wrote the paper themselves. If we want a more productive outcome, we have to change the incentive structure of the entire education complex.

Next up: stock buybacks, which were only legalized in 1982 at the start of America's great hollow out the real economy to benefit the few experiment, also known as Financialization. (Source: American Companies Are Buying Their Own Stocks at a Record Pace Buybacks are expected to top $1.1 trillion in 2025, led by big banks and tech firms (in other words, the usual suspects.)

The approved narrative seems to be that Corporate America would be investing these trillions in new productivity, except for all this uncertainty about tariffs. But this explanation conveniently ignores the enormous annual buybacks that preceded the present tariff kerfuffle.

The real issue is the incentives favor financialization, not investing in real-world productive assets. As a thought experiment, consider these changes to our economy's incentive structure:

1. Buybacks are taxed at a rate of 50%. If you want to buy back $1 of your company's shares, you pay $1 in tax. So Corporate America's $1.1 trillion in buybacks would generate $550 billion in taxes and a net $550 billion in shares purchased via buybacks.

2. Profits earned from domestic production are tax-free. Given the complexities of global supply chains, there has to be some wiggle room here, so if 80% of all components and labor are domestic, this qualifies for the zero tax rate.

How would changing the incentives change Corporate America's decisions regarding where they invest their profits? If we want to change the outcome, we have to change the incentive structure.

The problem, as we all know, is those with vested interests in maintaining the current perverse incentives hold all the power, and they have zero incentive to relinquish any of that power.

*  *  *

Check out my new book Ultra-Processed Life and my updated Books and Films.

Become a $3/month patron of my work via patreon.com

Subscribe to my Substack for free

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 16:20

Fleeing High-Cost Blue States? Here's Where Bills Are Lowest

The U.S. consumer landscape remains mixed. Recent datapoints have painted a softer macroeconomic backdrop, with subpar jobs reports with downward revisions, a pullback in personal spending, two consecutive monthly declines in credit card balances, a record jump in student loan delinquencies, and downward pressure in consumer discretionary stocks. However, July’s consumer report showed an unexpected surge in spending, suggesting resilience so far this summer despite economic headwinds. 

Against this complicated macroeconomic backdrop for consumers, new data from DoxoINSIGHTS’ 2025 State-by-State Bill Pay Market Report provides a granular view of household bill costs nationwide. The report ranks states by monthly expenses, highlighting the most and least expensive places to live. 

Doxo's unique aggregate bill pay dataset shows that consumers spend an average of $2,058 per month on bills, or about 31% of the $84,583 median household income.

The analysis, covering 97% of ZIP codes and 45 bill categories, shows California, Hawaii, New Jersey, and Massachusetts as the priciest states, while West Virginia, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Oklahoma are the cheapest.

Californians face a median monthly bill of $2,854, 39% above the national level, compared with $1,149 in West Virginia, 44% below. The report, based on median payments for 13 major household expenses including mortgages, rent, utilities, auto loans, insurance and telecoms, ranks all 50 states by bill cost.

10 Most Expensive States for Household Bills

10 Least Expensive States for Household Bills

This state-level cost profile can help individuals and employers make more informed decisions when considering job relocations or moves to escape expensive blue states to affordable red states. 

*   *   * 

View the full report here:

. . .

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 15:45

Trump Says Xi Assured Him China Will Not Invade Taiwan During His Presidency

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said Chinese leader Xi Jinping promised him that China will refrain from invading Taiwan for the next four years.

Trump made the remarks during a nearly 30-minute-long interview with Fox News’ Brett Baier which was filmed on Air Force One and aired while the president was in Alaska meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“I will never do it as long as you’re president; President Xi told me that, and I said, well, I appreciate that,” Trump said.

The guarantee does not extend to future administrations, the president noted.

“But he also said, but I am very patient, and China is very patient,” Trump said. “Say, well, that’s up to you, but it better not happen now.”

It remains unclear when Xi made the remarks.

The White House did not respond to requests for comment before publication.

Taiwan, a self-governing democratic island territory, is viewed by Beijing as a breakaway province. Its freedom remains a volatile point of contention in U.S.-China relations. 

The United States guarantees defensive arms to Taipei under the Taiwan Relations Act.  

Xi has vowed to achieve “reunification” with the island by any means necessary, and he’s ramped up military exercises in the waters around the island. 

Optimism that the president’s foreign policy agenda will deter China’s aggression is a recurring theme in the administration’s first 200 days.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC host Andrew Ross Sorkin in March that China will stay out of Taiwan.

“I follow President Trump’s lead, and he is confident that President Xi will not make that move during his presidency,” Bessent said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth publicly declared at the Shangri-La Dialogue—an annual summit held in Singapore by the International Institute for Strategic Studies—in May that China is signaling a desire to be capable of attacking the island nation by 2027, with a buildup in nuclear weapons and military readiness.

“Every day you see it. China’s military harasses Taiwan,” Hegseth said.

“It has to be clear to all that Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.”

He expressed confidence that the communist regime will wait until the current administration leaves office, but warned of the threat the Chinese Communist Party poses to world peace.

“Again, to be clear: any attempt by communist China to conquer Taiwan by force would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world,” Hegseth said. “There’s no reason to sugarcoat it. The threat China poses is real.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 15:10

Trump Says Xi Assured Him China Will Not Invade Taiwan During His Presidency

Authored by Travis Gillmore via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said Chinese leader Xi Jinping promised him that China will refrain from invading Taiwan for the next four years.

Trump made the remarks during a nearly 30-minute-long interview with Fox News’ Brett Baier which was filmed on Air Force One and aired while the president was in Alaska meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“I will never do it as long as you’re president; President Xi told me that, and I said, well, I appreciate that,” Trump said.

The guarantee does not extend to future administrations, the president noted.

“But he also said, but I am very patient, and China is very patient,” Trump said. “Say, well, that’s up to you, but it better not happen now.”

It remains unclear when Xi made the remarks.

The White House did not respond to requests for comment before publication.

Taiwan, a self-governing democratic island territory, is viewed by Beijing as a breakaway province. Its freedom remains a volatile point of contention in U.S.-China relations. 

The United States guarantees defensive arms to Taipei under the Taiwan Relations Act.  

Xi has vowed to achieve “reunification” with the island by any means necessary, and he’s ramped up military exercises in the waters around the island. 

Optimism that the president’s foreign policy agenda will deter China’s aggression is a recurring theme in the administration’s first 200 days.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC host Andrew Ross Sorkin in March that China will stay out of Taiwan.

“I follow President Trump’s lead, and he is confident that President Xi will not make that move during his presidency,” Bessent said.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth publicly declared at the Shangri-La Dialogue—an annual summit held in Singapore by the International Institute for Strategic Studies—in May that China is signaling a desire to be capable of attacking the island nation by 2027, with a buildup in nuclear weapons and military readiness.

“Every day you see it. China’s military harasses Taiwan,” Hegseth said.

“It has to be clear to all that Beijing is credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.”

He expressed confidence that the communist regime will wait until the current administration leaves office, but warned of the threat the Chinese Communist Party poses to world peace.

“Again, to be clear: any attempt by communist China to conquer Taiwan by force would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world,” Hegseth said. “There’s no reason to sugarcoat it. The threat China poses is real.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 15:10

Boiled Frogs: AI Slop, Phishing, Deep-Fakes, & Spam, Spam, Spam

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

We're frogs in a pot that's being heated so gradually that we no longer notice the sewage is extinguishing the utility of the Web.

Let's take "Show me the incentives, and I'll show you the outcome" and direct it on the Internet, the digital realm that is now central to modern life The incentives are making money from attention, i.e. clicks, engagement, etc. by any means available, and a burgeoning universe of cons, deception, extortion and fraud.

And with those incentives, the outcome is an ever-expanding river of toxic sewage, a river of AI slop, deep-fakes, phishing, clickbait and spam, spam, spam on every device, every platform, every screen.

This is not inconsequential. A physician-correspondent recently reported that he was researching a cardiovascular condition online and realized the article he was reviewing was AI slop, a conglomeration of inaccurate diagrams and plausible-sounding nonsense slapped together to get whatever meager income would be generated by a modest number of views.

That's the incentive the Big Tech platforms set up: since it's a low-odds gamble that any post will go viral on a large enough scale to make serious income, the incentive is to post 1,000 AI slop posts which each collect 1,000 views. In other words, make it up on volume.

Since the Internet is global, people in low-income nations have an incentive to generate AI slop to earn what is a pittance in developed nations. The barrier to entry is low--anyone can produce veritable mountains of AI slop with free tools and low-cost bandwidth--and the gains, however modest, are welcome if paid work is scarce.

The same "make it up on volume" approach incentivizes churning out millions of phishing and spam SMS, emails and posts on every platform under the sun. If there's only one sucker per 10,000 entreaties, then send out 10 million.

Since views and engagement generate income, the more outrageous the clickbait, the better. And of course, the greater the volume of clickbait, the greater the income stream flowing to platforms hosting the clickbait.

AI tools incentivize creating deep-fakes of celebrities' voices and personas which can then be deployed to con older Internet users who are often credulous enough to believe that yes, Owen Wilson is talking to me, see, it's him.

Every legitimate institution is now a tripwire for phishing and spam. Your USPS package can't be delivered, here's your Social Security Statement, and so on.

AI Search is broken, too. I couldn't find the original PropOrNot "fake-news about fake-news" list from 2016, and AI search concluded it was not available. Then a correspondent sent me a post on Zero Hedge which prominently displayed the entire original PropOrNot list. (oftwominds.com was on the list, thank you very much.)

Washington Post Names Drudge, Zero Hedge, & Ron Paul As Anti-Clinton "Sophisticated Russian Propaganda Tools" (November 25, 2016)

The burden of shadow work required to delete, unsubscribe and purge our lives of all this sewage is growing heavier by the day. This calls to mind the boiled-frog analogy: we're frogs in a pot that's being heated so gradually that we no longer notice the sewage is extinguishing the utility of the Web.

And the reason is--drum roll--that's how everyone makes money: views, engagement, scams, cons, fraud and above all, sheer volume. And who makes money from volume? The Big Tech platforms. So what if it's misleading AI slop, deep-fake scams or clickbait, the more "engagement" we get, the more money we make.

So where's the incentive to staunch the flood of sewage? There isn't one. The incentive is to shrug and let the user sort it out by burning their own time.

If we want a different outcome, we have to change the incentives.

*  *  *

Check out my new book Ultra-Processed Life and my updated Books and Films.

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Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 11:40

WoodMac Sounds Alarm On Transformer Shortage Amid AI Data Center Boom

The AI data center boom could soon face some serious headwinds, and the problem isn't a shortage of Nvidia GPUs, but America's fragile power grid.

A combination of disastrous green policies and soaring data center power demand has already sparked a power bill crisis across the Mid-Atlantic states, while a nationwide grid-tightening crisis unfolds. This has triggered a growing wave of discontent among residents in Maryland and New Jersey, who are angered by Democrats' prioritization of green policies that have retired stable fossil fuel power generation in favor of unreliable solar and wind, resulting in power bill inflation like never seen before.

Making matters worse, AI data centers are counting on an upgraded grid to handle new base loads of power. This massive, multi-layered supply chain needed to upgrade the grid spans raw materials, transmission lines, circuit breakers, cables, control systems, and power generation systems.

Yet one of the most critical components in that upgrade cycle, transformers, is already in dangerously short supply.

A new report from global research and consultancy group Wood Mackenzie highlights that U.S. efforts to upgrade power grids for AI-driven data centers will push transformer demand beyond supply by 30% this year, driving up costs and delaying projects. Analysts warn the shortage will only worsen and persist well into the decade's end.

The supply deficit, fueled by AI-related data center growth and broader electrification trends, threatens grid reliability and the whole data center buildout.

Viewed as a national security threat, the U.S. production of transformers can't keep pace, meaning about 80% of units will be imported, mostly from South Korea, Mexico, and other countries.

"We have seen such a large increase in power demand," said Ben Boucher, a senior analyst of supply chain and data analytics at Wood Mackenzie, adding, "AI is necessitating data center expansion, which is pushing up electricity usage."

Just weeks ago, we warned that U.S. transformer wait times have ballooned from 50 to 127 weeks, crippling grid resilience, whether it's upgrading power grids or replacing units damaged by storms, wildfires, or domestic terrorism attacks by radical leftists.

In short, the AI data center boom is colliding with a power grid already under strain from failed green policies, surging electricity demand, and a worsening transformer shortage. This is far from ideal in the era of massive data center buildouts, and wait until outrage over skyrocketing power bills goes fully mainstream. We bet that's coming.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 11:05

Sanctions Are Just As Deadly As War: Lancet Study

Via The Libertarian Institute

Ron Paul, the libertarian leaning former Texas congressman and GOP candidate for president, has always maintained that sanctions are acts of war. The Lancet Global Health recently published a study that proves him right.

Economists Mark Weisbrot, Francisco Rodríguez, and Silvio Rendón have found that the yearly total excess human death toll associated with economic sanctions across the world is roughly equivalent to the annual human death tolls of active wars and combat. In fact, the study reveals that on average the civilian deaths caused by sanctions exceed battle-related casualties in kinetic conflicts each year.

AFP/Getty Images

According to the study, the worst effects on populations across various age groups are caused by unilateral US and EU sanctions against targeted countries. The researchers argue “unilateral sanctions imposed by the USA or the EU might be designed in ways that have a greater negative effect on target populations.” UN sanctions, they add, “have been framed as efforts to minimise their impact on civilian populations, although the extent to which they have achieved this goal remains debated.”

In the period of 2012-2021, for example, the unilateral sanctions’ annual global death toll on average was 564, 258. The study also notes that most of the civilian deaths attributeable to sanctions between 1970 and 2020 were children less than five years old.

Economic and unilateral sanctions kill the most vulnerable members of a population including primarily children, the elderly, and the sick. The press release regarding the study, published by the Center for Economic and Policy Research, states “The researchers studied sanctions’ effects on age-specific mortality rates. They found that children under five made up 51 percent of total deaths due to sanctions over the 1970–2021 period. Most deaths (77 percent over the same period) were aged 0–15 and 60–80.”

The press release continues, “The study is the first to systematically examine the effects of sanctions on age-specific mortality in cross-country data using methods designed to address causal questions on observational data.” The researchers conclude that “the effects of sanctions on mortality generally increase over time, with longer-lived sanctions episodes resulting in higher tolls on lives.”

Washington has imposed  brutal “maximum pressure” or “crippling” sanctions on poor countries across the world such as Venezuela, North Korea, Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Cuba. Over the years, it has been documented that these sanctions have contributed to the preventable deaths of tens of thousands and in some cases hundreds of thousands of people in Venezuela and Iraq alone.

The US also imposes extensive sanctions regimes on more powerful countries than those listed above such as Russia and Iran. By cutting off the possibility of economic cooperation and interdependence, war has resulted in both cases during the last three years.

In 2021, erstwhile Secretary of State Antony Blinken declared that Washington was absolutely committed “to [opposing] the reconstruction of Syria” absent regime change. To that end, the US implemented a callous sanctions regime on Syria using the bipartisan Caesar Act, a law which targeted any person or entity of any nationality that attempted to do business with the war-torn country. These sanctions deliberately targeted the country’s engineering and construction sectors.

As a result, the civilian population was devastated. In 2022, Alena Douhan, a UN special rapporteur on unilateral coercive measures, visited Syria. She explained at the time that the sanctions “severely harm human rights and prevent any efforts for early recovery, rebuilding and reconstruction.”

Douhan stressed that “12 million Syrians grapple with food insecurity” and “90% of Syria’s population currently lives in poverty,” with limited access to food, shelter, water, electricity, healthcare, heating, cooking, fuel, and transportation. Partly as a result of the bipartisan economic war on Syria, Al Qaeda offshoots were able to seize Damascus and take over the country. Since then, sectarian violence has seen thousands of civilians slaughtered.

The use of sanctions, largely spearheaded by the US, has spread across the world over the last several decades. “25% of all countries [were] subject to some type of sanctions by either the USA, the EU, or the UN in the 2010–22 period, by contrast with an average of only 8% in the 1960s.”

Rodríguez insists the entire policy of economic warfare must be reevaluated. “We have seen economic sanctions — especially those imposed by the US — contribute substantially to economic collapse in targeted countries, such as Venezuela… Sanctions often fail to achieve their stated objectives and instead only punish the civilian populations of the targeted countries. It is well past time that the US, EU, and other powerful actors in the international community seriously reconsider this cruel and often counterproductive mechanism.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 10:30

DOGE's AI Tool 'SweetREX' Set To Take Buzzsaw To Federal Regulations

Following Elon Musk’s exit from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Democrats and mainstream media have largely turned their attention elsewhere. Yet, DOGE is quietly making steady progress on an ambitious plan to overhaul federal regulations, according to a report.

Central to the effort is an AI tool under development, the SweetREX Deregulation AI Plan Builder (SweetREX DAIP), designed to “promote prudent financial management and alleviate unnecessary regulatory burdens.”

The little-known project is being spearheaded by Christopher Sweet, a DOGE staffer initially presented as a “special assistant,” who was, until recently, a third-year student at the University of Chicago.

WIRED reports:

SweetREX was developed by associates of DOGE operating out of the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The plan is to roll it out to other US agencies. Members of the call included staffers from across the government, including the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of State, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, among others.

Leading Wednesday's call alongside Sweet was Scott Langmack, a DOGE-affiliated senior adviser at HUD and, according to his LinkedIn profile, the COO of technology company Kukun. (WIRED previously reported that he had application-level access to critical HUD systems; Kukun is a proptech firm that is, according to its website, “on a long-term mission to aggregate the hardest to find data.”) While Sweet led the development side of SweetREX, Langmack said he was taking point on demoing the tool for different agencies and pitching them on its benefits.

DOGE is likely to use the AI tool to eliminate up to 50% of 200,000 federal regulations by January 2026. A DOGE PowerPoint presentation, titled the “DOGE Deregulation Opportunity,” projects that the effort could yield $3.3 trillion annually in economic benefits.

“The DOGE experts creating these plans are the best and brightest in the business and are embarking on a never-before-attempted transformation of government systems and operations to enhance efficiency and effectiveness,” an administration spokesperson told the Washington Post, which first reported on the DOGE presentation.

On Tuesday, a federal appeals court cleared a key hurdle for DOGE, rejecting a labor union effort to restrict the agency’s access to sensitive U.S. user data from government agencies. In a 2-1 decision, the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals vacated a lower court’s injunction that had blocked DOGE from accessing data held by the U.S. Department of Education, Treasury Department, and Office of Personnel Management, citing potential violations of federal privacy laws, according to Fox News.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 09:55

Merz's Germany: 100 Days Of Economic Deep Freeze

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The German federal government is already staggering into its first major crisis just months after its election. That it also stands economically bare amidst mostly self-inflicted turbulence has gone largely unnoticed. Meanwhile, no one in Berlin seems concerned about the country’s economic catastrophe.

To call Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s first 100 days a false start would be the understatement of the year. His initial report card is a disaster. His ostentatious alignment with the Left in fighting the AfD, the catastrophic decision to halt arms deliveries to Israel, and the break with Germany’s last vestiges of state raison d’être will contribute to the premature end of this coalition just as much as Merz’s wobbly course in the debate over the SPD-nominated Federal Constitutional Court judge Brosius-Gersdorf.

Fear-Driven Shock Paralysis

Merz is fear-driven, fleeing to the international stage to project an aura of strength domestically against the background of bellicose noise in Russia policy, avoiding the looming collapse of his government and the embarrassment of a short-lived chancellorship. Armament, military readiness, and a pinch of patriotism—this is the thin veneer of Merz’s last line of defense.

It is the nature of the media that the EU’s disastrous handling of the trade conflict with the US, the Gaza crisis, and the escalation of the Ukraine conflict dominate headlines. Meanwhile, Germany’s economic decline accelerates. To be fair, Merz inherited a poisoned political legacy. The country’s deep recession was handed down by his predecessor Olaf Scholz, along with the dire state of the German social funds, which currently show a deficit of around €47 billion.

The extreme imbalances in Germany’s social system - resulting from the recession, demographic aging, and uncontrolled migration - cannot be blamed on Merz any more than the hyperstate-like public sector, now managing half of all economic output through its channels. The energy crisis is also a fact the new government must confront, layered atop a complex mix of structural deficits that have rendered Germany nearly untouchable in the global competitive landscape.

Problem Recognized?

The question must be: Has Merz at least recognized the severity of the country’s economic crisis? And if so, what measures does his government plan to reverse it? In the third year of recession and with a loss of 700,000 jobs since 2019, it is clear Berlin knows the political course leads Germany toward catastrophe.

On the plus side, Merz can claim his so-called “investment booster,” mainly composed of two measures: the temporary reintroduction of declining balance depreciation until 2029 and a corporate tax cut from 15% to 10% starting 2028. These measures would relieve the economy by €11.3 billion, roughly 0.23% of GDP—laughably small given the economy already carries €146 billion in unnecessary bureaucracy costs.

Merz should have wielded the chainsaw here, but no German politician dares challenge a bureaucracy that has grown into a state within a state, adding half a million employees in the last six years.

Reform Refusal and Course Maintenance

Merz’s original promise to cut electricity taxes for business and consumers also signals, unspoken, that the green transition is seen as the root of the energy crisis, driving energy-intensive firms out of the country. Last year alone, €64.5 billion in direct investments left Germany, a long-standing trend now accelerating.

Consequently, Germany is losing its economic foundation, on the verge of becoming Europe’s Rust Belt, much like parts of the US. Yet Berlin does nothing: no electricity tax cut, no return to nuclear, no scrapping of the burdensome heating law. Merz refuses any reforms in the green transition. We are witnessing the continuation of Habeck’s deindustrialization agenda.

Merz avoids all conflict with Brussels’ Green Deal. The core of centralist policy, the key to Germany’s economic liberation, remains untouched, regardless of how sharply the recession bites.

An orderly withdrawal of the state from the frozen energy sector, weighed down by subsidies and regulations, is nowhere in sight. Talks with Moscow over gas imports are unthinkable—Brussels stubbornly polishes the 19th sanctions package. Merz watches as a policy takes root that delivers Germany a fatal economic blow.

Systemic Collapse

Even social fund problems, the scandalous citizen’s allowance, now promoted globally as aid for migrants, fall under economic policy. Like a rabbit before a snake, the government freezes amid widening deficits, attempting to fix health and pension insurance with new debt and supplementary transfers. Only an effective migration policy shift and painful reforms to social benefits could reverse the downward spiral.

Merz allows Germany to head toward French-style conditions—his historically and legally dubious €1 trillion debt program will push Germany into the middle ranks of European debt states, raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to 95%, turning the federal budget into an unbearable weight. Infrastructure spending is nice, but with social funds in crisis and defense commitments rising, resources will barely suffice to maintain existing assets.

No Regulatory Turnaround

Unless Germany’s economic course turns 180 degrees, this government will go down as a temporary continuation of the red-green agenda and a footnote in the country’s history. With a coalition backed by the Left, Merz lacks the political capital and personal reform drive to pull Germany out of crisis.

In Argentina today, one can observe the recipe for political turnaround: drastic state downsizing and deregulation should guide policy. The state’s share must shrink enough that private markets regain control of investment allocation.

Merz would need to break the ideological wall of his structurally leftist coalition, cancel the Green Deal with Brussels, and restore diplomatic relations with Moscow to turn the tide. Germany is light-years from such a paradigm shift. Until then, the economic substance left by two postwar generations will be politically squandered.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 09:20

Washington Cancer Patient Has Car Stolen On First Day Of Treatment

On what should have been a day focused solely on fighting prostate cancer, Washington state resident Val Mohney got blindsided by a different kind of battle — car theft.

Mohney, who lives in Davenport, had traveled to Columbia City to stay with his friend Kristen Dean while starting treatment, according to Yahoo. But at around 6 a.m. Tuesday, the police called with news guaranteed to ruin anyone’s morning: his car had been stolen, joyridden, and crashed into a fence at a nearby middle school.

"Unfortunately, I started my day off with having my car ripped off and driven through a fence," he told KING5. "I'm just trying to deal with cancer, and now I have to deal with that."

Yahoo writes that the car was in bad shape — the ignition looked like someone had "taken a grenade" to it — and it was left abandoned in the school parking lot. For Mohney, a real estate agent, the loss isn’t just inconvenient; it’s income-threatening. "I'm the sole bread winner so if I'm not making money there's no money coming in," he said.

"I wouldn't hold out much hope for the tape deck. Or the Creedence."

On top of everything, Mohney is caring for his mother, who has dementia, and his partner, whose disability limits how much they can work. Life has been throwing him lemons, bricks, and the occasional flaming bowling ball, but he’s focusing on his supporters.

"Really, I'm very fortunate because I have a big community of people that love me and I don't know how people that don't do it when stuff like that comes up," he said.

Dean is now shuttling him to work between treatments — a job that apparently now comes with “personal chauffeur” in the description. Seattle police are combing through surveillance footage to find the joyrider, who remains at large. Meanwhile, a GoFundMe is helping Mohney keep going while he battles cancer and, apparently, other people’s bad life choices.

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/16/2025 - 08:45