Individual Economists

US-China Trade Talks "Going Well" On Second Day, Lutnick Says

Zero Hedge -

US-China Trade Talks "Going Well" On Second Day, Lutnick Says

US-China trade talks are again in the spotlight, with a second day of negotiations taking place in London aimed at beefing up the fraying truce between the world's two biggest economies. 

As he arrived, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the talks were "going well" and he expected another full day of discussions. Meanwhile, markets remain on edge as the world’s largest economies try to agree to allow exports of key tech and industrial goods and avoid escalating their trade war. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which has fallen sharply this year as trade tensions undermine confidence in US assets, is around its lowest levels since 2023.

The teams led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng reconvened Tuesday just after 10:40 am at Lancaster House. The Georgian-era mansion near Buckingham Palace has hosted major addresses by UK prime ministers, speeches by central bank governors and parties for Britain’s royal family.

Export controls are at the top of the agenda. Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said Monday that the talks were likely to result in Beijing quickly releasing rare earths for export, and Washington easing China's access to semiconductors. A subsequent rally in chip stocks helped lift major indexes.

According to Bloomberg, the key issue this week is re-establishing terms of an agreement reached in Geneva last month, in which the US understood that China would allow more rare earth shipments to reach American customers. The Trump administration accused Beijing of moving too slowly, which threatened shortages in domestic manufacturing sectors.

In return, the Trump administration is prepared to remove a recent spate of measures targeting chip design software, jet engine parts, chemicals and nuclear materials, people familiar with the matter said. Many of those actions were taken in the past few weeks as tensions flared between the US and China (however, as discussed here, "China's Need For US Chemicals Greater Than US Need For Rare Earths").

A month ago Beijing and Washington agreed to a 90-day truce through mid-August in their crippling tariffs to allow time to resolve many of their trade disagreements — from tariffs to export controls.

At the same time, Trump’s trade team is scrambling to secure bilateral deals with India, Japan, South Korea and several other countries that are racing to do so before July 9, when the US president’s so-called reciprocal tariffs rise from the current 10% baseline to much higher levels customized for each trading partner.

Separately, Chinese President Xi Jinping on Tuesday held his first phone conversation with South Korea’s newly elected President Lee Jae-myung and called for cooperation to safeguard multilateralism and free trade.

“We should strengthen bilateral cooperation and multilateral coordination, jointly safeguard multilateralism and free trade, and ensure the stability and smoothness of global and regional industrial chains and supply chains,” Xi said, according to the CCTV report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 09:45

UK Imposes Historic Sanctions On Hardline Israeli Ministers

Zero Hedge -

UK Imposes Historic Sanctions On Hardline Israeli Ministers

In a historic shift in UK-Israel relations, Britain is imposing formal sanctions on hardline Israeli ministers Bezalel Smotrich (Finance) and Itamar Ben Gvir (National Security) after months of inflammatory statements about Gaza have caught the world's attention

The sanctions, unveiled Tuesday, are to include asset freezes and travel bans, following similar measures from the governments of Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and others. These countries have previously sanctioned various radical Zionist settler groups and individuals, something the US also did under Biden.

Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben Gvir, Shutterstock

Ben Gvir has several times called for the "voluntary emigration" of Gazans, and he along with Smotrich have frequently made statements overtly backing an ethnic cleansing program.

"My right, my wife's, my children's, to roam the roads of Judea and Samaria are more important than the right of movement of the Arabs," Ben Gvir said for example in 2023 of occupied West Bank areas.

Both Israeli ministers have actively supported the most extreme settler groups operating in the West Bank, made up of individuals who call for the removal of Palestinians by force or even death. They've long been involved in movements and political parties who also advocate for the expulsion of all Arabs from Israeli society.

According to an Al Jazeera backgrounder:

The 47-year-old lawyer and politician has led the far-right party Jewish Power (Otzma Yehudit) since 2019, and was sworn into the cabinet after last year’s elections.

He was later appointed the national security minister and handed control of Israel’s Border Police division in the occupied West Bank.

A settler in Kiryat Arba, one of the most radical settlements in the occupied West Bank (all of which are illegal under international law), Ben-Gvir has been convicted of incitement to racism, destroying property, possessing a “terror” organisation’s propaganda material and supporting a “terror” organization – Meir Kahane’s outlawed Kach group, which he joined when he was 16.

Ben Gvir responded to the UK's sanctions move later on Tuesday. He expressed "contempt for the White Paper" - characterizing it as akin to the 1939 UK policy paper limiting Jewish immigration to British-administered 'Mandatory Palestine'.

Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich (right) at the Knesset, Flash90

"We survived Pharaoh, we will also survive Keir Starmer," he said. “I will continue to work for Israel and the people of Israel without fear or intimidation!”

At a dedication ceremony for a new settlement near Hebron, Smotrich, Ben Gvir said that "Britain has already tried once to prevent us from settling the cradle of our homeland and we will not allow it to do so again." He emphasized in front of settler groups, "We are determined to continue building."

But ironically many of the same Western governments now sanctioning the two Israeli officials have long supplied heavy weapons to the Israeli military. These governments still remain a party to one side of this war which has resulted in the deaths of tens of thousands of civilians, and utter decimation of the Gaza Strip in the wake of the Oct.7, 2023 Hamas terror attacks, but there appears no peaceful solution on the horizon.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 09:30

Multi-State Lawsuit Aims To Block Sale Of 23andMe Personal Genetic Data

Zero Hedge -

Multi-State Lawsuit Aims To Block Sale Of 23andMe Personal Genetic Data

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Tmes,

A coalition of 27 states and the District of Columbia has taken legal action to prevent 23andMe from selling personal genetic data in its possession without customer consent.

The California-based biotechnology company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on March 23 to facilitate the sale of its assets, sparking concerns over the handling of the sensitive genetic data it holds.

In a June 9 statement, the states said that customers should have the right to control the personal information they provided to the company and that 23andMe cannot sell the data like “ordinary property.”

“This isn’t just data – it’s your DNA. It’s personal, permanent, and deeply private,” Oregon Attorney General Dan Rayfield said in the statement. “People did not submit their personal data to 23andMe thinking their genetic blueprint would later be sold off to the highest bidder.”

The lawsuit states that 23andMe holds biological samples and genetic data from more than 15 million customers, which were collected through the sale of at-home genetic tests, and uses this data to determine customers’ ancestry information, lineal descent, and potential risk factors for certain diseases.

Last month, 23andMe announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement with Regeneron Pharmaceuticals for the sale of the company and its assets. The deal still requires court approval. The company later requested the court to reopen bidding on its assets after receiving a $305 million offer from its co-founder Anne Wojcicki.

In their lawsuit, the states contended that 23andMe should obtain expressed consent from its customers before transferring or selling their data to another company.

“Virtually all of this ‘customer data’ is immutable. If stolen or misused, it cannot be changed or replaced,” they stated in the suit. “In other words, the magnitude of the data in this proposed sale stretches far beyond the 23andMe consumers, impacting those who have no awareness of the sale as well as human beings who do not even exist yet.”

Customers have also been advised to delete their accounts and personal information from the company’s website to prevent their data from being sold.

Joining Rayfield in the suit are attorneys general from Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin.

23andMe did not return a request for comment by publication time.

According to the company’s privacy policy page, if 23andMe goes bankrupt and changes ownership, its user data “may be accessed, sold, or transferred as part of that transaction” but the privacy provisions will still apply under the new entity.

In 2023, hackers leaked the personal data of nearly 7 million 23andMe customers on an online forum.

These data encompassed users’ origin estimation, phenotype, health information, photos, and identification data. The company said at the time that it believed “threat actors” gained access to accounts where users recycled login credentials.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 09:15

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025

A brief excerpt:
Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-June 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. I noted that the key story right now for existing homes is that inventory is increasing sharply, and sales are essentially flat compared to last year. That means prices will be under pressure (although there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales). And there are significant regional differences too.

In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage rates, rents and more.
...
Case-Shiller House Prices IndicesThe Case-Shiller National Index increased 3.4% year-over-year (YoY) in March and will likely be lower year-over-year in the April report compared to March (based on other data).
...
The MoM decrease in the seasonally adjusted (SA) Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.30% (a -3.5% annual rate). This was the first MoM decrease since January 2023.
There is much more in the article.

Futures Rise As Market Awaits Outcome US-China Trade Talks

Zero Hedge -

Futures Rise As Market Awaits Outcome US-China Trade Talks

US equity futures are little changed, paring earlier gains along with European stocks, as Commerce Secretary Lutnick says US-China trade talks are "going well" and that they’re expected to go on all day. The bar for an improvement risk appetite appears high after Chinese stocks suddenly fell toward the end of trading day earlier, sparking a broader souring of sentiment. As of 8:00am S&P futures were up 0.1% into today’s trade talks and tomorrow's CPI print; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%, with Mag7 names seeing muted returns ex-TSLA which is +3%. Semis/Cyclicals are seeing a bid. The UK’s FTSE 100, however, was poised to close at an all-time high for the first time since March. US/China talks continue for a second day with Bessent empowered to alter US export controls; US/Iran talks are set for Thursday.
US Treasuries extended gains ahead of a $58 billion auction of three-year bonds; the USD is higher into tomorrow's CPI; commodities are higher led by Ags/Energy. Today’s macro data print is the Small Business Optimism survey, which rose from 95.8 to 98.8, beating expectations of a 96.0 print. 

Inpremarket trading, Mag 7 tech giants were miexed: Tesla +2%, Nvidia +0.2%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon -0.1%, Meta Platforms +0.6%, Apple -0.3%, Microsoft -0.3%. McDonald’s fell 1.6% after Redburn downgrades the restaurant chain to sell from buy, saying weight-loss drugs are suppressing consumer appetites and presenting an under-appreciated longer-term threat. Here are some other notable premarket movers: 

  • Brown & Brown (BRO) falls 3% after agreeing to buy privately-held insurance brokerage Accession Risk Management Group for $9.825 billion.
  • Insmed (INSM) rises 17% after the company announced positive topline results from Phase 2b study of treprostinil palmitil inhalation powder as a once-daily therapy in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension.
  • JM Smucker (SJM) falls 7% after the packaged-food company projected profit for the coming fiscal year that trailed Wall Street’s expectations, continuing a challenging run for the biggest US packaged food producers.
  • TechTarget (TTGT) drops 4.8% after the marketing software firm was downgraded to underweight at JPMorgan on a lack of catalysts.
  • Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) ADRs rise 5% after agreeing to buy Chinese podcasting startup Ximalaya Inc. for $1.3 billion in cash plus an issuance of stock, a deal that propels its ambition to become China’s answer to Spotify

While Monday’s negotiations in London between the US and China delivered no breakthrough, American officials had sounded optimistic that the two sides could ease tensions over shipments of technology and rare earth elements. With a key inflation read on tap Wednesday, investors are waiting for fresh drivers after stocks rebounded to near record levels from their April lows.

We believe the path of least resistance for equities remains upward and potentially see room for some US performance catch-up,” wrote Alastair Pinder, global equity strategist at HSBC Holdings Plc.

As delegations from the US and China arrived at London’s Lancaster House for the start of talks on Tuesday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said discussions were “going well” and expected negotiations to continue “all day today.” 

Meanwhile, analysts at firms including Barclays and JPMorgan Chase & Co. see further upside for US stocks, in part because they expect institutional investors to abandon their cautious stance and ramp up exposure to equities.  Citigroup strategists said that technology heavyweights have attracted a flurry of bullish bets as optimism around the trade outlook overshadows trade concerns.

“Flow activity has been largely one-sided, driven by new risk flows for large caps,” the team led by Chris Montagu wrote. “While tariff policy issues remain a concern, investors have also been assessing the evolving macro backdrop.”

European stocks were little changed, with investors reluctant to make big bets ahead of a second day of trade negotiations between the US and China. Stoxx 600 fell 0.2% with energy and auto sectors leading gains, while financial services stocks among the biggest laggards. Among individual stocks, UBS fell after Vontobel analysts wrote that Swiss capital demands could impact its competitiveness. The FTSE 100 surpassed its previous closing peak as investors took comfort from an improving economic outlook and easing trade tensions, with the UK becoming the first nation to strike a deal with President Donald Trump after his April 2 tariff announcements. That said, sentiment remains fragile as London faces an exodus of companies moving listings to the US and shelving initial public offerings.

Here are the most notable European movers: 

  • SoftwareOne shares rise as much as 12% to hit a seven-month high after the company said its deal to buy Crayon will close on July 2.
  • Umicore shares jump as much as 10% to hit a seven-month high, after Goldman Sachs analysts upgraded the chemicals firm to buy and doubled the price target.
  • Tecan shares gain as much as 5.4% after Berenberg started coverage of the Swiss laboratory-equipment maker with a buy rating, saying it is a high-quality operator that currently trades at a discount.
  • Bellway shares rise as much as 4.1% after the UK housebuilder reported robust trading and said it expects to build more houses and sell them at higher prices than previously thought.
  • Aberdeen rises as much as 5.9%, climbing to highest since August 2023, as JPMorgan upgrades to overweight and places the UK investment firm on a positive catalyst watch.
  • Puuilo gains as much as 8.5%, setting a new record high, as DNB Carnegie says the Finnish home-improvement retailer’s results surpassed what had been already bullish expectations.
  • European energy stocks are outperforming as oil prices rise for a fourth straight day due to investor optimism around extended US-China trade talks and signs of near-term tightness in the physical market.
  • FirstGroup rises as much as 7.2%, hitting the highest since Sept. 2012, as analysts welcome a full-year beat from the UK bus and rail company.
  • UBS shares drop as much as 7.4%, erasing all of Friday’s gains that followed the Swiss government proposing new rules that could see the bank hold up to $26 billion in fresh capital.
  • Renk shares fall as much as 10% after Bank of America double-downgraded the stock to underperform, saying it has run too far in the short term and noting the German firm’s lack of exposure to defense electronics.
  • Hochschild Mining shares plummet as much as 21%, the most in over two years, after the company warned the Mara Rosa mine in Brazil will produce far less gold than hoped this year.
  • GB Group shares drop as much as 13% after the identity verification and fraud prevention specialist delivered another year of “underwhelming” growth, according to Jefferies.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities rose before the second day of trade talks between the US and China began, as traders stayed cautiously optimistic over any potential progress. The gains in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index narrowed to 0.3% from 0.7% earlier. TSMC, MediaTek and Commonwealth Bank of Australia were among the biggest boosts. Taiwan led the charge among local markets, with notable advances also in Indonesia and South Korea. 

Chinese stocks slid suddenly in the afternoon session amid speculation that the US-China trade negotiations might have hit bumps. The move came on an elevated trading volume with major index ETFs also see surging volume. Rare earth names on the opposite saw a sharp move higher. Defensive names including high-div and agribusiness sector managed to claimed the loss first, and lead the index to rebound around 13:28. China managed to recovered part of the loss and ended up small loss by end of day. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dipped almost 1% during the session and then recovered most of the losses.

Focus continues to be on the US-China trade talk in London of which more active headlines are expected to rise. From a full day perspective, Pharma continued the positive momentum, banks picking up buyers as risking off. Growth names all pulled back in PM.

“Beyond the very short term dynamic, I think our expectation should be very low because I think that what we have seen from Geneva talks, London talks now is that this is going to be a protracted, long period of discussions between the two,” Bilal Hafeez, CEO at Macro Hive, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index also trims gains, up 0.1%, while the Swiss franc tops the G-10 FX leader board, rising marginally along with haven assets. USD/JPY rises as much as 0.5% to the day’s high of 145.29, before paring gains; the yen came under selling pressure after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said Japan’s price trend still has some ways to go to reach 2.  The dollar index would likely stay in a range “given the tariff uncertainty and the need for investors to keep assessing conditions,” Malayan Banking Bhd strategists wrote in a note.

In rates, treasuries hold modest gains in early US session, supported by bigger advance for gilts after soft UK labor-market data boosted expectations for Bank of England interest-rate cuts this year. US yields are 2bp-3bp richer across maturities with the curve flatter; 10-year is around 4.45%, about 2.5bp lower on the day with UK counterpart outperforming by around 4bp. Gilts outperformed their US and European peers after UK employment fell by the most in five years and wage growth slowed more than forecast. UK 10-year yields fall 7 bps to 4.56% as traders also boosted their Bank of England interest-rate cut bets; swaps tied to Bank of England’s policy rate price in around 47bp of easing by year-end vs 41bp at Monday’s close.

The US session features first of this week’s three Treasury coupon auctions, a 3-year new issue for $58 billion at 1pm New York time; $39 billion 10-year and $22 billion 30-year reopenings follow Wednesday and Thursday. WI 3-year yield near 3.955% is ~13bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped through by 0.2bp. Traders will be closely watching Tuesday’s three-year Treasury auction as a read on whether or not foreigners are reducing their holding of US assets, wrote Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank in London. “The focus therefore will be on the indirect bid at the auction and also the general gauge of auction success,” Turner wrote. “A poor auction could rekindle the weaker dollar story.”

In commodities, spot gold reversed an earlier fall and is now a few dollars higher on the day. Oil prices rise for a fourth day, with WTI up 0.1% at ~$65 a barrel. Bitcoin rises 0.4% and above $109,000.

Looking to the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment and Italian industrial production for April, and in the US there’s the NFIB’s small business optimism index for May (printed at 98.8, above the est. of 96.0 and up from 95.8 prior).. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, Holzmann and Rehn.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini little changed
  • Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.2%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 -0.1%
  • DAX -0.6%
  • CAC 40 little changed
  • 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.45%
  • VIX +0.2 points at 17.38
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.1% at 1211.05
  • euro -0.1% at $1.141
  • WTI crude +0.4% at $65.58/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • US military confirmed it has activated 700 marines to help protect federal personnel and federal property in the greater Los Angeles area: RTRS
  • US Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. dismissed all 17 members of one of the main committees that advises the government on vaccine safety and policy. BBG
  • META is creating a new AI research lab dedicated to achieving “superintelligence,” and Alexandr Wang, the founder and CEO of Scale AI, is set to join the initiative (Meta is in talks to invest billions into Scale AI). NYT
  • House Speaker Johnson said they are on track to get a budget bill passed by Independence Day and urged the Senate to modify SALT as little as possible.
  • US GOP Rep. Green notified the Speaker he would resign from Congress after the reconciliation package vote.
  • China is tapping its $1.5 trillion housing provident fund to salvage its property sector, with the government program outpacing banks in providing mortgages. BBG
  • TSMC reported a 40% jump in May revenue, fueled by companies stockpiling chips in response to mounting trade uncertainty. BBG
  • Huawei’s founder said US export controls won’t have an impact on the company as Washington exaggerates the firm’s capabilities. Ren Zhegfei said Huawei’s Ascend chip, the main rival to NVDA’s products in China,  
  •  “still lags behind the US by one generation.” FT
  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank is still some distance from its inflation goal in comments that helped accelerate a weakening of the yen. While Ueda also talked down the possibility of any rate cut to boost the economy, the mention of a possible need to offer support for the economy likely gave the impression that the bank’s next move to raise rates will be more distant. BBG
  • The U.K.’s labor market cooled in the three months to April, offering reassurance to Bank of England policymakers despite the level still being well above that required to return inflation to target any time soon. Average weekly earnings excluding bonuses rose 5.2% from a year earlier, down from 5.5% in the three months to March. The unemployment rate climbed to 4.6% in the period from 4.4% in the prior quarter, the highest since May-July 2021. WSJ
  • Britain approved a £14.2 billion investment to help build its nuclear plant Sizewell C. The country’s wide-ranging spending review — set to be announced tomorrow — includes plans to offer cheaper financing for housebuilders. BBG
  • META is creating a new AI research lab dedicated to achieving “superintelligence,” and Alexandr Wang, the founder and CEO of Scale AI, is set to join the initiative (Meta is in talks to invest billions into Scale AI). NYT
  • Autos are a key component of trade negotiations and Trump might need to make a choice: he can’t keep his auto tariffs and strike trade deals. Politico

Tariffs/Trade

  • US-China talks in London were scheduled to continue on Tuesday at 10:30BST/05:30EDT (delayed from 10:00BST/05:00ET, no reason provided) following talks on Monday which concluded after 6 hours and 40 minutes; the US Treasury announced Tuesday's talks began around 10:44BST/05:44ET. Heading into the talks, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said discussions with China are "going well", and talks are to continue all day Tuesday.
  • US DoJ requested that judges extend a hold on the ruling against Trump tariffs.
  • Japanese PM Ishiba and US President Trump will hold bilateral talks on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada.
  • Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa said the key is if Japan and the US can agree on a trade package, while it was separately reported that he is to visit the US and Canada from June 13th-18th for tariff talks, according to Nikkei.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly higher with risk sentiment underpinned amid some optimism surrounding US-China talks which are set to resume on Tuesday and have been described so far by US officials as a 'good meeting' and "fruitful". ASX 200 gained on return from the long weekend with the advances led by outperformance in Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Energy and Tech, while further upside was capped amid mixed consumer and business sentiment surveys. Nikkei 225 initially outperformed as it coat-tailed on the recent upside in USD/JPY which was partially facilitated alongside comments from BoJ Governor Ueda who stated that the BoJ is keeping the real interest rate negative, so underlying inflation achieves 2% and keeps inflation sustainably and stably at 2%. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp kept afloat as the attention centred on US-China talks in London which are scheduled to extend for a second day.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese President Xi and South Korean President Lee held a phone talk, while Xi said that China and South Korea should promote strategic cooperative partnership to a higher level and he urged the countries to inject more certainty into regional and international situation. Furthermore, Xi urged they jointly safeguard multilateralism and free trade and ensure stable, smooth global and regional industrial and supply chains.
  • Chinese Vice President Han Zheng met with French President Macron in France and said that China is ready to work with the EU to further expand areas of cooperation and promote new development in China-EU relations, while Han said at the UN Ocean Conference that China will carry out bilateral and multilateral cooperation projects to support small island states and other developing countries in implementing sustainable development goals.
  • Chinese Finance Ministry announced that China is working on setting up a childcare subsidy system.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda said if the economy and prices come under strong downward pressure, the BoJ has limited room to underpin growth with rate cuts with the short-term rate still at 0.5% and noted that underlying inflation is still below 2%. Ueda stated the BoJ is keeping the real interest rate negative, so underlying inflation achieves 2% and keeps inflation sustainably and stably at 2%, but reiterated that the BoJ will raise interest rates if it has enough confidence that underlying inflation nears or moves around 2%.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened mixed and on either side of the unchanged mark; sentiment did gradually improve just after the cash open but then a bout of hefty pressure took most European indices back into negative territory. No clear driver for the downside, but perhaps in anticipation of the US-China talks.
European sectors are mixed and with no clear theme or bias. Energy takes the top spot, following closely by Autos & Parts; the latter likely benefitting from the optimism surrounding the US-China talks. Financial Services sits at the foot of the pile, with the downside driven by losses in UBS (-6.6%), reversing some of the upside seen on Friday and as traders digest the latest government proposals which aim to force the bank to hold an extra USD 26bln in extra capital.

Top European News

  • UK Chancellor Reeves is planning a ‘housing bank’ to provide cheaper financing for builders and is considering a funding settlement of up to GBP 25bln for social housing in Wednesday’s spending review, according to FT.
  • ECB's Holzmann said the pause in cutting rates could last a while and if economic data worsens there could be more cuts, while he is moderately optimistic about what will happen with Trump and tariffs, according to Orf TV.
  • ECB's Villeroy says ECB has successfully normalised policy; policy and inflation are now in a favourable zone Being in a favourable zone does not mean the Bank is static. ECB will be as agile as needed.
  • ECB's Rehn says will take decisions on a meeting by meeting basis, must avoid complacency over the inflation outlook.
  • French President Macron says he does not rule out the possibility of dissolving the National Assembly and calling snap elections, according to Bloomberg.

FX

  • USD has kicked the session off on the front foot with support stemming from the positive readout of the US-China trade talks which saw US Treasury Secretary Bessent state that it was a 'good meeting' with China, whilst Commerce Secretary Lutnick said talks were "fruitful". Focus today will be on the US 3yr auction, to give further indication of if the "Sell America" theme is still at play. DXY currently around 99.15.
  • EUR is a touch softer vs. the broadly firmer USD with fresh macro drivers lacking for the Eurozone. Markets continue to be drip-fed ECB speak with known hawk Holzmann noting the pause in cutting rates could last a while. Elsewhere, France's Villeroy remarked that the Bank has successfully normalised policy, adding that policy and inflation are now in a favourable zone. However, being in a favourable zone does not mean the Bank is static. EUR/USD continues to pivot around the 1.14 mark and is currently contained within Monday's 1.1386-1.1439 range.
  • JPY is fractionally lower vs. the USD, albeit off worst levels which saw the pair hit a new high for the month during APAC trade at 145.29. The price action took place alongside the broad pick-up in the USD and mostly positive risk appetite, which eventually faded. In terms of Japanese-specific newsflow, BoJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed the familiar rate hike signal but also stated the BoJ has limited room to underpin growth with rate cuts if the economy and prices come under strong downward pressure. On the trade front, Japanese Economy Minister Akazawa is reportedly to visit the US and Canada from June 13th-18th for tariff talks. USD/JPY has returned to a 144 handle but is holding above its 50DMA at 144.34.
  • GBP is sat at the foot of the G10 leaderboard in the wake of the latest UK jobs which report which showed an expected uptick in the unemployment rate to 4.6% from 4.5%, a 109k slump in the HMRC payrolls change metric for May (largest decline since May 2020) and a further cooling of average earnings. In reaction, BoE market pricing moved dovishly, now fully pricing in a 25bps cut in September vs November pre-data. Cable has slipped onto a 1.34 handle for the first time since June 2nd with a current session low at 1.3457 (June 2nd low was at 1.3451).
  • Antipodeans are both are slightly softer vs. the USD with price action choppy during APAC hours on account of mixed Business Sentiment data from Australia and the overall constructive risk tone. However, of greater interest for both will likely be the outcome of the US-China trade talks in London today given that China is both nation's largest trading partner.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1840 vs exp. 7.1853 (Prev. 7.1855).

Fixed Income

  • Gilts are outperforming, gapped higher by 55 ticks after a dovish UK labour market series. This caused Gilts to open at 92.36 before extending to a 92.66 peak with gains in excess of 80 ticks on the session at best. In brief, HMRC Payrolls fell more-than-expected with the accompanying wage figures also cooler than expected. In the near term, there is around a 10% implied probability of a June cut while August has increased to -18bps vs 15bps pre-release - a cut is now fully priced in September vs November pre-data.
  • Bunds are in the green but with upside of only around half of that seen in Gilts at best. Specifics for the bloc include the latest ECB SMA and remarks from Villeroy, who said that while policy has now been normalised and the ECB is in a “favourable zone” this does not mean they are “static”. Bunds were only a little firmer in APAC trade, then caught a slight bid as the risk tone dipped in early morning trade before taking another leg higher alongside the Gilt open. Currently at 130.63, if the move continues, Friday’s high is just above at 130.77 before 130.99 from Monday and then last week’s 131.47 peak.
  • USTs are broadly in-line with Bunds though the magnitude of gains is a little less, given that US equity futures have proven to be more resilient than European peers this morning; though, US equity sentiment is still very much on the back foot. Thus far, this has taken USTs to a 110-12 peak. If surpassed, Friday’s pre-NFP high resides at 110-29. The US data docket is light, focus turns to US-China talks in London and a 3yr auction thereafter.
  • Netherlands sells EUR 2.45bln vs exp. EUR 2-2.5bln 2.50% 2035 DSL: average yield 2.749% (prev. 3.011%).
  • Germany sells EUR 3.078bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.40% 2030 Bobl: b/c 1.8x (prev. 1.20x), average yield 2.14% (prev. 2.07%) & retention 23.05% (prev. 22.67%)
  • Books have opened on the UK's 1.75% September 2038 I/L Gilt via syndication; price guidance 11.75-12.25bps above November 2037 I/L. Orders for the UK's 2038 I/L are in excess of GBP 46bln; price guidance unchanged. Orders for new UK 2038 I/L Gilt exceed GBP 58bln, according to a bookrunner; guidance set at 2037 I/L +11.75bps.

Commodities

  • Crude prices are indecisive on a day when two major events (US-China talks and the Iranian nuclear counteroffer) are taking place. Ahead of the Iranian proposal, both sides confirmed the sixth round of nuclear talks will take place this weekend - the timing is unclear. Brent Aug'25 currently trades in a USD 66.95-67.40/bbl range.
  • Spot gold is looking to build on Monday’s gains, as ongoing US-China tariff negotiations continue to support safe-haven demand - but with gains capped by modest Dollar strength. XAU/USD trades around 3,330/oz.
  • Base metals are broadly lower, tracking the mood seen in Gold ahead of further trade/mineral-specific updates. EV sensitive metal Lithium is the outperformer, however, Palladium, used only in combustion cars, is suffering, given optimism on a rare earth deal. Copper has been rangebound, though is ultimately lower after the prior session of gains. The industrial metal looks to test the USD 9,760 mark, and sits within a USD 9,724-9,782.55 range.
  • Kazakhstan says its oil exports to Germany via Druzhba pipeline +48% Y/Y in Jan-May; via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline at +10% Y/Y in Jan-May.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • The sixth round of nuclear talks between the US and Iran will take place either on Friday in Oslo or on Sunday in Muscat, according to an Axios reporter citing a US official, while Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman confirmed that the sixth round of Iran-US talks is being scheduled for Sunday, June 15th in Muscat.
  • Security sources estimated if nuclear talks fail, Israel would have to decide whether to attack Iran, according to the Israeli Broadcasting Authority.
  • Israel launched strikes on Yemen's port city of Hodeidah, according to Houthi-affiliated Al Masirah TV.
  • Israel's navy attacked Houthi targets in the Hodeidah port of Yemen, via an army statement.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Russia launched an air attack on Kyiv which Ukraine's defence systems attempted to repel, while emergency units were dispatched to several districts in Kyiv after Russian drone attacks, according to the mayor.
  • Flights were halted at all airports serving Moscow following a Ukrainian drone attack, according to Russia's civil aviation authority.

US Event Calendar

  • 6:00 am: May NFIB Small Business Optimism 98.8, est. 96, prior 95.8

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Who knew quiet Mondays were still a thing? Its only taken until June but maybe we can start easing back into weeks again. Famous last words I’d imagine. To be fair we were all waiting for the outcome of the US-China trade talks, which will now carry on into today. Indeed, after the volatility of the last two months, it was striking just how little any of the major assets shifted yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.09%) barely budging while 10yr Treasuries (-3.2bps) saw their narrowest daily trading range in over 6 weeks. The calm is unlikely to last though with more trade talk headlines likely to come through today, US CPI to look forward to tomorrow and that 30yr Treasury auction on Thursday.
In terms of those trade talks, the US and Chinese negotiators started to talk in London yesterday, with talks reported to resume again today at 10am London. There were some positive noises heading into the meeting, with US NEC Director Kevin Hassett saying to CNBC that they expected that “after the handshake”, that “any export controls from the US will be eased and the rare earths will be released in volume”. So that suggested a potential compromise whereby the US would ease their export controls in return for China easing their own restrictions on rare earths. There were few substantive comments after yesterday’s round of talks, with Treasury Secretary Bessent saying they had a “good meeting” and Commerce Secretary Lutnick calling the discussions “fruitful”. While we await any concrete news, it’s worth remembering that markets have been used to a lot of back-and-forth in recent weeks. After all, US tariffs on China went all the way up to 145%, before they were then slashed back to 30%. Then Trump said that China “HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US.” But the following week he had a phone call that he said “resulted in a very positive conclusion for both Countries.” So there’ve been several twists and turns already, and markets are getting fairly used to this uncertainty by now. Note that US / India trade talks are also quietly expected to end today so maybe we'll see some headlines there soon too.
In a generally light session, one supportive factor was some positive news on the inflation side, as the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations showed a clear decline in inflation expectations. 1yr expectations came down four-tenths to 3.2%, whilst 5yr expectations were down to a 14-month low of 2.6%. So that was a far more benign assessment of inflation relative to other measures, as the University of Michigan’s reading had shown 1yr expectations surging up to 6.6% in May. So that was seen as encouraging ahead of the CPI print tomorrow, and that in turn supported a rally in front-end Treasuries, with the 2yr yield down -3.3bps on the day to 4.00% and the 10yr down -3.2bps to 4.47%, while 30yr yields were -2.8bps lower ahead of that monthly supply on Thursday.
Against that backdrop, the risk-on move broadly continued, which helped the S&P 500 (+0.09%) to a very modest advance. That was driven by the Magnificent 7 (+0.92%), which hit a 3-month high led by a +4.55% rise for Tesla which continued to recover as last week’s Trump-Musk feud appeared to wane. Small-cap stocks also outperformed, with the Russell 2000 (+0.57%) hitting a 3-month high of its own. On the other hand, defensive sectors within the S&P 500 lost ground, including utilities (-0.66%) and consumer staples (-0.24%). It was also a more negative story in Europe, with the STOXX 600 (-0.07%) losing ground after 4 consecutive gains, whilst the German DAX (-0.54%) saw a particular underperformance in thin trading due to a holiday.
In the quiet session, Italian BTPs continued to edge tighter, with the spread of 10yr Italian yields over bunds falling to just 92.1bps (-0.6bps), which is the tightest they’ve been since February 2021. In fact, the spread is getting increasingly close to the post-Euro crisis low of 88bps, back in 2015. Meanwhile in the UK, gilts did briefly underperform after the government announced a U-turn on paying winter fuel payments to most pensioners. But that had unwound by the end of the session, with 10yr gilt yields (-1.2bps) performing broadly in line with elsewhere.
Commodities gained amid the sanguine market mood, with WTI crude (+1.10%) posting its fifth advance in six sessions to reach a two-month high of $65.29/bbl.
Asian equity markets have picked up a bit of momentum overnight led by the Nikkei (+0.91%) and the ASX (+0.71%). Other markets are up but off their highs with the Hang Seng (+0.33%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.11%) slightly higher. S&P 500 (+0.35%) and NASDAQ (+0.45%) futures are optimistic we'll get positive trade headlines today.
In FX, the Japanese yen (-0.19%) is dipping, trading at 144.85 against the dollar, following comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, who noted that Japan’s price trend still has a considerable distance to cover to reach the 2% target. Some market participants have interpreted these remarks as diminishing the likelihood of an imminent interest rate hike.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include UK unemployment and Italian industrial production for April, and in the US there’s the NFIB’s small business optimism index for May. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy, Holzmann and Rehn.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 08:20

Trump Travel Ban, Restrictions Go Into Effect On 19 Nations

Zero Hedge -

Trump Travel Ban, Restrictions Go Into Effect On 19 Nations

Authored by Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A travel ban signed by President Donald Trump has gone into effect, barring nationals from 12 countries from entering the United States and restricting entry by nationals from seven others.

Travelers cart their luggage through the international arrivals area at the Los Angeles International Airport in Los Angeles on June 8, 2025. William Liang/AP Photo

The ban, instituted through a presidential proclamation rather than an executive order, went into effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on June 9. As a proclamation, it isn’t legally binding but signals a shift in federal policy.

A total of 12 countries face complete bans under the proclamation, including Afghanistan, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Burma (also known as Myanmar), the Republic of the Congo, Somalia, Sudan, and Yemen.

People from these nations are barred from entering the United States for immigration or other reasons.

The seven countries that the president partially restricted travel from are Burundi, Cuba, Laos, Sierra Leone, Togo, Turkmenistan, and Venezuela.

Trump suspended the entry of individuals from those seven countries “as immigrants, and as nonimmigrants,” on B-1, B-2, B-1/B-2, F, M, and J visas, according to the directive.

Those who are already in the country from these nations with a valid visa will be permitted to remain.

Trump tied the proclamation to national security and public safety. In a video on social media, Trump linked the new ban to the June 1 terror attack in Boulder, Colorado, saying it underscored the dangers posed by some visitors who overstay visas.

The suspect in that attack, Mohammed Sabry Soliman, was an Egyptian national who overstayed his visa, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

“It is the policy of the United States to protect its citizens from terrorist attacks and other national security or public-safety threats,” Trump’s order reads. “Screening and vetting protocols and procedures associated with visa adjudications and other immigration processes play a critical role in implementing that policy.”

He tied the Afghanistan ban to the Taliban’s current control of the nation, the Iran ban to the Islamic state’s status as a “state sponsor of terrorism” and noncooperation with the United States, and Somalia’s to the nation’s internal terrorism issues.

The proclamation also mentions the significant influx of illegal immigrants from Haiti.

“This influx harms American communities by creating acute risks of increased overstay rates, establishment of criminal networks, and other national security threats,” the proclamation reads.

Others were tied to noncooperation by foreign governments, including not accepting deported foreign nationals.

For example, according to the White House, Chad had visa overstay rates of 37 percent, 49 percent, and 55 percent, depending on the type of visa, in 2022 and 2023.

“The high visa overstay rate for 2022 and 2023 is unacceptable and indicates a blatant disregard for United States immigration laws,” the directive said.

The travel ban results from a Jan. 20 executive order that Trump issued requiring the departments of State and Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence to compile a report on “hostile attitudes” toward the United States and whether entry from certain countries represented a national security risk.

The order met with criticism from some international and immigrant groups, including the International Refugee Assistance Project.

In a statement, the group said that the ban “weaponizes and distorts immigration laws to target people that the president dislikes and disagrees with” and would create “chaos.”

The African Union Commission also expressed concerns about the “potential negative impact” of the move.

“The African Union Commission respectfully calls upon the U.S. administration to consider adopting a more consultative approach and to engage in constructive dialogue with the countries concerned,” the commission said in a statement.

Jack Phillips contributed to this report. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 08:05

Transcript: Bryon Lake, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Chief Transformation Officer

The Big Picture -



 

 

The transcript from this week’s, MiB: Bryon Lake, Goldman Sachs Asset Management’s Chief Transformation Officer, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.

Barry Ritholtz: This week on the podcast, I have another extra special guest. Brian Lake is Chief transformational Officer at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. He got a start at PowerShares in the ETF industry early and really has spent most of his career at the vanguard of disruption. First at PowerShares. They’re eventually bought by Invesco. He rises to become head of International ETFs with them, and for a couple years was based out of London, then comes back to New York, and gets tagged to run ETFs for JP Morgan Asset Management. He just as one of these people that has, through a combination of luck and smarts, has been in the right place at the right time and has very much observed what it takes to satisfy clients, to reach a, a particular outcome, and to use the latest, greatest technology, whether it cannibalizes your prior business or not, to help achieve those outcomes. I found this conversation to be fascinating, and if you want to have some insight into what’s going on at Goldman Sachs $3 trillion asset Management business, you’ll find this conversation to be fascinating. With no further ado, my discussion with Goldman Sachs, asset managements Bryon Lake.

Bryon Lake: Barry, it’s a pleasure to be here. Thanks for having me. 00:01:40 [Speaker Changed] So I saw in, in one of the news outlets you get hired with this completely wacky title, like, like our, our mutual friends, Dave Tic was, was a chief futurist. So we’ll get to the title in a bit, but I wanna start with a little bit of your background that led you to the CTO position, starting with bachelor’s from Taylor University, international Business Economics and Finance. What was the original career plan?

00:02:12 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, no, you, you know, I think I had read a Warren Buffett book early on, so I loved investing, I liked watching stocks and, you know, I’d read the Wall Street Journal that was always around in the home, and so I was able to, to, to really look into that. But I didn’t realize that the entire asset management industry existed in the way, in the way that it did. I think it’s one of those that, because the asset management industry often is working with financial advisors or other institutions, it’s not as consumer of a business. Whereas financial advisors obviously work with individuals. And so I didn’t know the asset management industry existed in the way that it did, so I didn’t know that. But, you know, growing up, my parents were intentional about exposing us to interna, you know, traveling internationally. We were fortunate enough to, to, to do some trips throughout Europe and had just always been amazed by, you know, the different cultures and the different things that go into to that. And so, as we’ll get into, I’m sure that that did end up playing out in my career. I think to be international business at Taylor, you just had to take a language, which of course I took, you know, eight years of Spanish and I can speak maybe 15 words, but that, you know, that’s, that’s how we kind of ended up with that one.

00:03:18 [Speaker Changed] So you start your career after college as an office manager at Fifth Third Bank office manager. What, what, what

00:03:26 [Speaker Changed] Branch bank? Like

00:03:27 [Speaker Changed] A branch. You literally locking up the bank.

00:03:28 [Speaker Changed] It was in a branch. So, so, so now there’s some, some history there. My, my dad worked at Comerica Bank in Detroit com, Comerica Park, the, you know, the, the Tigers Field is named after Comerica. It’s one of the largest banks in, in the, in the country. And, and, you know, some of the formidable years, I remember, you know, spending time, you know, the quality time I would spend with my dad, we’d be going to sporting events, right? And, you know, sometimes he’d bring somebody from work and I’d just sit in the back, back of the car and listen to them talk shop and, you know, those things were just kind of, even if I didn’t understand what was, what they were talking about, the cadence and the perspective, the professional kind of interactions that they were having just kind of always, always fascinated me.

00:04:02 So my dad was at, as a, was at Comerica Bank. I got a job at Fifth Third Bank as literally a branch manager. And what I distinctly remember from that time is you’d get there at about seven 30 in the morning and you’d pull all the deposits that came from, you know, the, the, the previous nights. And there was a bunch of restaurants in the area. And I would hand count 300, 400, $500,000 worth of bills cash. This was a little while ago now. And, and you’d strap it up and then you’d stack, and then you’d have to like, how, how big a pile of money, I mean, oh, and we’re talking like a,

00:04:33 [Speaker Changed] A full duffle

00:04:33 [Speaker Changed] Bag, two tumi next to each other, right? Like two major suitcases that that go into, that’s $400,000 something, something like that. Because this is from a restaurant, you got small bills and all this sort of stuff. And as, and, and, and as interesting as that was, I was like, this is not the forever thing. And then at the end of the day, you’re helping, you know, the tellers balance out there, drawers and all this sort of stuff. And I was like, this is, this is not the finance that I was, that I was really picturing. And so that didn’t last forever, but I do, that was exactly where it started at a fifth third, at a fifth, third branch in Livonia, Michigan. Not, not far from where I grew

00:05:02 [Speaker Changed] Up. How did you find your way to Invesco?

00:05:04 [Speaker Changed] So I went to Taylor University, as we talked about, that’s in the, the middle of Indiana. It’s called Upland Indiana. It’s the highest point above sea level between Fort Wayne and Indianapolis. It’s 10 feet above sea level. This is corn. This is corn, this is cornfield. Well, you must have

00:05:17 [Speaker Changed] A great view from

00:05:17 [Speaker Changed] Upland. You can see it all, you can see as far as the eye can, can see of rows of corn. And, and, but they had a great finance program. And, and, and like I say, the, the culture at that university, which I’m still very connected with, you know, raised some really interesting people. And so I, I graduate from there. I go back home to, to Plymouth, Michigan, just outside Detroit. And I’m living there, kinda the post-college thing. This is when I’m working at Fifth Third. But there was a girl that I had met at Taylor University who lived in Chicago. And so I really wanted to find my way over to Chicago. So I find I find my way over to Chicago and I get introduced to a gentleman by the name of Bruce Bond. And, and you probably know Bruce, but you know, for people listening, Bruce founded PowerShares originally, which was a, which was a startup ETF business.

00:05:59 He now runs Innovator, which is another ETF business. And, and, and this was, you know, over 20 years ago, the entire ETF industry was less than a hundred billion dollars. And, and, and I was interviewing with, with Bruce, and he just so happened to be a Taylor grad as well. And another one of my mentors is in the room, Ben Fulton, who also has been a very successful entrepreneur and was early on at, at, at PowerShares. And I, I distinctly remember I was, I was interviewing and I was, I was telling Bruce, oh, I think ETFs could, you know, really change the investment landscape. And this is really interesting. I was just parroting this article, and at the time the article started with Startup Power shares next to the petting zoo in Wheaton, Illinois. So it doesn’t exactly scream high finance, right? And so I’m interviewing with Bruce and Oh, why do you wanna be here? Oh, I’m really excited about this. And Ben interrupts, he says, who’s the girl? And I said, well, her name’s Casey and I really like her. And so now Casey and I are married four kids later, we got a dog as well. But that was how I got to Power Shares. And so this was, that was oh five. That’s oh five. Yep. And, and so like I said, the ETF industry is a hundred billion dollars now, as you know, it’s $15 trillion

00:07:02 [Speaker Changed] And half of that spy right at the time.

00:07:04 [Speaker Changed] And half of that, half of that spy, and it’s an, it’s an amazing kind of story. The idea behind Power Shares was they were going to be the non-market cap weighted ETF provider, right? So what we now call smart beta, what we now call thematic, what we now call, you know, some of these other things that, you know, d different exposures that nobody was really thinking about at the time. PowerShares was really the innovator in launching many of those. And so I had the really good fortune of sitting in a very small group. So I was a 12th employee at PowerShares. I had a very, you know, I was very fortunate to sit with these people as they were building this business. The industry was going from, you know, like I said, the whole industry was about a hundred billion. To your point, spy was, spy was kind of 50. I’d probably had 10,000 conversations about ETFs within the first three years of my career between the phone and then covering, you know, a territory and working with, with financial advisors, which was a, which was such an edge as, you know, you learn so much just having these conversations repetitively over and over again, right. And, and so that was kind of how I got to Chicago.

00:08:02 [Speaker Changed] So, so Invesco becomes a significant player Yeah. In ETFs by acquiring Power Shares the very next year. Yeah. So you’re there for a year, suddenly you’re acquired. What’s your new role like at Invesco?

00:08:15 [Speaker Changed] Well, this is, I’m, you know, this is a really interesting time for me. And so, you know, and I, I know you like to, to, to ask your guests what books they like to read. I’m gonna, I’m gonna share a book early on. We’ll say that. Okay. I got, I got multiple books for you today, Barry. But the book that it, that I, that I like to read is, there’s a, a book called Innovator’s Dilemma by Clayton Christensen. Oh, of course. Clayton Christensen. Right? And so think about what’s happening now. So you have a large asset manager in Invesco, which was Growth Shop of the nineties. A you know, hundreds of billions of dollar asset manager acquiring this. At the time, I think PowerShares was $6 billion ETF, fast grow, new technology, changing the game on what we’re doing.

00:08:54 [Speaker Changed] Very disruptive,

00:08:55 [Speaker Changed] Very disruptive. But as you know, in the Innovator’s dilemma, the legacy incumbent technology really tries to protect what they’re doing while the up and comer is trying to disrupt what’s happening. And so Invesco acquires the power shares business. They’re gonna, they’re gonna expand their offerings from traditional mutual funds to now include exchange traded funds. That’s 00:09:15 [Speaker Changed] Pretty, pretty forward looking at a time where there was a lot of skepticism. I remember the early days where you and I first met Yes. At some ETF conferences, and you’re just genuinely shocked at how much skepticism and Yeah, yeah. The kids are playing with this newfangled ETF thingy. Yeah.

00:09:33 [Speaker Changed] Which is, which is how so many of the new technologies come, come about, right? Yeah. But what’s in, so Invesco acquires it very astute on their part. But, but what was amazing for me is I had this unique opportunity. I was the first person that they put on the plane from Wheaton, Illinois down to Houston, Texas, or Atlanta, which is where Invesco had offices. And I was the one training them on ETFs. And so we were having this interesting conversation. The light bulb went off for me. I was like, holy smokes. I could see both perspectives. These were, these were incredibly successful asset management, financial service individuals that were trying to digest and understand, which now in hindsight looked so obvious,
but at the time, to your point, looked like, I don’t know if this thing’s really gonna happen. And so that was a really, a really formative time for me.

00:10:13 [Speaker Changed] And, and you know, when you think about certain companies that have been really successful, they’re the ones who have, and, and for over long periods of time, they’ve figured out innovator’s dilemma, they’re willing to disrupt themselves. I’m thinking about, you know, the original iPod was a huge winner for Apple. Totally. And they just kept making it faster, cheaper, smaller, with more capacity. And you could just hear someone saying, guys, we’re selling a ton of these with a gig capacity at $500, you now want to introduce three gig capacity at $200, you’re gonna kill our old sales. Didn’t matter better we do it than someone else. Right.

00:10:51 [Speaker Changed] That’s, that’s exactly right. You know, one of the quotes that we’d throw around a lot at that point is, is that if you didn’t like change, you were gonna, like, I rece even less. Right? And, and, and if you think about that, that was what was gonna happen, this innovation and this, this whole story is about innovation and continuing to look for new ideas. And, you know, as you think about how product gets developed, as you think about how distribution happens, these are all things that in inform all of those, all of those things. But yeah, that was, that was an amazing time That then evolved into, hey, we’ve, we’ve got investors from Asia, from Europe, from South America, that are buying our ETFs listed on the New York Stock Exchange, because by the way, it’s a security. And so all these firms that had trading lines open in New York, were happy to buy an ETF off the exchange in that way. Hey, Brian, would you mind getting on a plane and going and talking to some of these people and figure out what’s going on in, in, in these areas? So, so 00:11:38 [Speaker Changed] You go to Europe in the Middle East, you go to Asia eventually after 12 years of work at Invesco PowerShares, you are running EAFE. Yeah. In terms of ETFs. Tell us about that experience.

00:11:51 [Speaker Changed] That was an amazing thing. I had been doing this global business development, and so you, you know, combine a couple of things that we’ve talked about here. So I, I had had, you know, tens of thousands of conversations around ETFs. I had been given the fortunate opportunity to talk to incumbent asset managers and how they then are digesting ETFs in their portfolios and how that’s going to change the, the industry and what’s happening there. I had done that then globally. So you understand the overall ecosystem. What’s the value proposition to investors to buy these, how are they using ’em in portfolios? And then Invesco says, Hey, would you, would you be interested in moving to moving the family to London and, and running our international business? Everything kind of X us I jumped at the opportunity. I couldn’t have been more excited. I didn’t know, when we talked about my degree earlier international finance, I didn’t know I was gonna move. Right? Right. But we were very open to it. And, you know, credit to my wife for being willing to help raise the family there.

00:12:39 [Speaker Changed] What was it like bringing the kids to London and sort of, Hey, you’re leaving everything behind. Yeah. At least for a couple of years, but it’s gonna be a great adventure. What, what were their reactions?

00:12:48 [Speaker Changed] We, we moved over with a 3-year-old, an 18 month old and a, and like a six month old. And so the house hunt was all looking for a, a flat in London that had a entryway level with the sidewalk so that we could push the stroller in. Right. That was, and in London, I don’t, you’ve been there, like, there’s a lot of steps. And so we like everything that we were, but that was kind of how we were, that that was kind of how we were thinking about it. But it was, but it was an amazing opportunity to go over there and understand the, the, the business landscape. Now, at the time, Invesco had two of the most successful mutual fund managers, Neil Woodford being one of them. And, and, and there was this pull away from ETF because you’ll remember ETF at the time meant passive. And, and the passive active debate was raging on. And people didn’t quite realize yet that the ETF is a technology, right? What you put inside of it is the investment engine. Right. 00:13:43 [Speaker Changed] And it’s a, it’s a vastly superior technology if for no other reason, there are no phantom capital gains taxes like we see in most mutual funds, but especially active mutual funds to,

00:13:55 [Speaker Changed] To to, to name just one of the many, many, many benefits. But, you know, you, you mentioned the, the MP three player earlier, and, and this is the analogy that I always, I always love to use you, you know, MP three is the evolution from the cd, from the tape player, from the eight track, from the, the vinyl record, right? What you put on all of those is the music, right? And so we love the benefits of the MP three player, the, the now what we stream on our phone, right? It gives us convenience, it gives us control, it gives us variety. We now have every single capacity, every single song that’s ever been invented is in our pocket, right? Plus podcasts like this plus audiobook, plus all of these other things. So the convenience for the, the consumer, it’s the better technology. And, and then what we’re having is this interesting debate is, so, okay, so go back, I’m a port, you know, think about an active portfolio manager saying, wait a second, these indexes are eating my lunch. What’s going on with this thing? These ETFs and everything was synonymous. The media was singing synonymous, index, passive, ETF, all the same thing. And so we had to break that apart. We had to make it very clear to investors that the ETF was the delivery mechanism. What you put inside of it was the investment engine.

00:15:03 [Speaker Changed] Then that makes a lot of sense. So how long were you in London with Invesco for?

00:15:08 [Speaker Changed] So with Invesco, that was four years.

00:15:12 [Speaker Changed] And then JP Morgan comes and knocking and they say, Hey, we’re looking for someone to head up our international ETFs. Yeah. And since you’re here in London anyway, let’s, let’s have a conversation. Tell us how, how you found your way over to JP Morgan asset

00:15:28 [Speaker Changed] Management. Yeah. It, you know, and it was, it was one of those interesting things where there had been about a 13 year run there where I was at startup Power shares, fast growth power, fast growth, power shares, and then Invesco Power shares. And even though I had never made a change, those were three distinct cultures, three distinct different cycles of the, of the business, if you will. And, and we are starting to get to this point. And, and some of the things that I’ve explained now in hindsight are very intuitive. At the point they were just starting to dawn on me, wait a second. If you could go into an established asset manager, deliver the disruption, but combine that with great investment capabilities, combine that with great distribution capabilities, combine that with a great brand, you can really change the landscape and, and, and build something incredible. And I, I like building, I, you know, I said some of the mentors that we talked about earlier, they, they were builders. And so I I I made the, the difficult decision to, you know, go to go to JP Morgan at that point in time. Huh.

00:16:23 [Speaker Changed] Really, really interesting. So you’re head of international ETFs in London for JPM. How did you end up back in New York running America’s ETF?

00:16:33 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I’m, we loved our time in, in, in London. And, and if I really wanna get New Yorkers riled up, I’ll say that we, that New York is, is, is a great city. London is a world class city. The quality of life is high. You’ve got parks, you can, you know, the weekends are a little bit slower than the intensity. Now I, new York’s the alpha city, I’ll, I’ll give it that. But you do have this kind of contrast between the two family.

00:16:55 [Speaker Changed] Isn’t that generally true in Europe? Europe is a lot more kick back. Like, I, I tell a story all the time about being there in the midst of the.com implosion, and you could walk down the street in New York and everybody’s stressed out. Yeah. And oh yeah, the economy’s collapsing, but I have healthcare and retirement. I’ll be okay. It’s a different head space.

00:17:14 [Speaker Changed] I, I feel that that human nature is true across both. There’s still, you know, using our industry’s language, there’s still fee, fear and greed that, that drive almost everything that happens, the culture and the approach is different. So, you know, I used to, I used to tell people, if the objective was to climb that mountain in Europe, you said, let, we’re gonna climb that mountain. Why do we want to climb that mountain? That mountain looks high. What would, what would be the purpose of climbing the mountain? What’s in, what’s in it for me to climb the mountain in the us? You’d say, let’s climb that mountain. People like, let’s go. And they’re halfway up the mountain, then they crash and they roll back down and they’re halfway up the mountain and they crash, they roll back down. Both reach the top of the mountain at about the same time.

00:17:49 The, the approach of how you get to the top of the mountain with, you know, European culture versus US culture is, is always a little bit of an interesting one. Of course, dramatic generalization there, but there is a little bit too kind of that thoughtfulness that that kind of comes, that kind of comes through in, in that. So, so we, you know, we, we move back to the us we’ve got family back in the us and it just, it just made sense for us at that time. We’d had our fourth child in the uk so we’re, we’re, we’re moving back. And, you know, I was fortunate that I, you know, I’d had international experience very early on. So I understood the XUS stuff. I had grown up in the US and, and, and knew that marketplace. And so it was really a combination of those two, those two things. The really important thing that was happening was investors were now starting to acknowledge and understand the difference between ETF wrapper and active and the, those, those really started to be the interesting conversations where

00:18:41 [Speaker Changed] They’re not mutually exclusive.

00:18:43 [Speaker Changed] They’re not mutually exclusive. And, and, and you had a lot of the passive providers that were gonna do their thing. And it was becoming quite obvious that that was a, a commoditized product and a bit of a race to the bottom as far as fees. And that’s great for investors. But if you have differentiated investment capabilities that you can deliver through the ETF technology, that starts to really bring you to an interesting, to an interesting space.

00:19:06 [Speaker Changed] So you’re back in New York, what’s that initial conversation with Goldman Sachs? Like, I wanna, and, and my motivation for asking that question is HH how do we get to the title Chief Transformation Officer? Yeah. It, they could have just said, Hey, you’re head of ETFs us or head of whatever. Yeah, whatever they, whatever they wanted you to do. This seems like it’s a little more comprehensive. Yeah,

00:19:30 [Speaker Changed] I, that, that, that’s fair. So I’ve, we’ve kind of unpacked my journey, you know, and I’ve been fortunate a bunch of those turns, I’ve, I’ve tried to point some of those turns out through the conversation, and, and when you log those, you, you kind of understand that that how the world is constantly changing, and you need to constantly kind of stay out in front of that. Okay. And our industry is, I always say this, the best industry in the world. We literally get to wake up every day helping investors meet their financial goals, whether they’re paying for healthcare, whether they’re trying to retire with dignity. Like that’s something that really motivates me about our industry. And I get really excited about, when we think about how the industry is evolving, there is innovation happening in so many places beyond just ETFs. I could, I could wax lyrical ETFs for a very long time, but now technology has unlocked SMAs direct indexing models. You know, we’re hearing a lot of influential people talk about privates and how those go into portfolios now. So private equity, private credit alternatives, like real estate infrastructure. And when you take a step back, I had the great opportunity to kind of learn this cross section of the entire asset management industry through my, my kind of earlier years, different chapters doing the ETF thing. But now I, I realize I can apply that across an entire asset manager. And so Goldman’s at an interesting spot, everybody knows Goldman, we are a $3.2 trillion asset manager, 00:21:00 [Speaker Changed] Which is a giant, like there are only so many companies, the a

00:21:04 [Speaker Changed] Largest asset manager in the world,

00:21:05 [Speaker Changed] Right? There’s only so many firms that have trillions of dollars as, as a wealth manager.

00:21:10 [Speaker Changed] It’s, it’s a, it’s a big number that’s not lost on us. We’re, we’re top five on active public, we’re top five on private investing. So we’ve got this combination of public and and private capabilities. We’ve got some of these technology underpinnings. And the conversation is really, you and I both know, I think a lot of, a lot of people would agree with us. Our industry is going to look very different five years from now than it does today. That’s, that’s the innovator’s dilemma that we, it never stops. There’s, there’s always this reinvention. There’s always a new technology that comes along that is driving this. And so we, we really are focused to make sure that we are positioned to serve our clients five years from now. And to do that, we need to transform our business. The industry is transforming and golden needs to transform along with that.

00:22:00 And so there comes my title now, you know, I like to joke like the nickname Optimist Prime hasn’t, hasn’t kicked in the way that I really, really thought it might’ve at this point. I didn’t get that gift sent to me by, by some of my friends in the way that I, that I’d wanted. But the, the, it’s, it’s really on the nose of what we’re trying to do, which is we feel very good about the investment capabilities we have, but we know we need to transform our business to serve clients five years from now. And if we aren’t intentional about how we’re doing that, we’re going, we, we may miss that. And, and because I was able to live that as ETFs did that at Invesco as ETFs did that at JP Morgan, I can now apply that across the entire franchise at, at Goldman Sachs, which I, I, I’m having a blast now. It’s, it’s still build with, there’s a lot of work that we have to do that goes into that. But, but that’s what I wake up every day thinking about.

00:22:49 [Speaker Changed] So I’m, I’m hearing two things from you that are kind of fascinating. First, you’ve, you’ve lived through the innovator’s dilemma and recognized how important it is to keep up, to be an agent of change, to not let some, Hey, we’re gonna eat our own lunch before someone else does. Totally get that. Now you come in to this role at Goldman. Tell me about the team you’re putting together. What areas are you looking at? Because that, that sounded like kind of a goofy title when I first heard it, but now that I’m hearing you describe it, it’s, it sounds like management at Goldman has said, Hey, this is really changing quick and we have to be on the, on the, no pun intended, at the, at the vanguard of change, we have to be at the cutting edge. Yeah. Or someone else is going to eat our lunch.

00:23:38 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, no, that, that’s exactly right. And and to your point, if you’re intentional about transforming your own own business and making those tough decisions, you, you stay out in front of this. And, and so, you know, I I got excited about that role. The platform, the organization is, is incredible. When I step back and think about world class asset managers, they, they really have kind of four things that, that, that are kind of pillars that they, that they need to be successful at. They need to have really good foundations. So, so operations, engineering, all the, all the platform that it takes block

00:24:13 [Speaker Changed] And tackle

00:24:14 [Speaker Changed] Blocking and tackling, they need to have modern and innovative products that, that what you build on top of those, that, that the, the investment outcomes for investors performance needs to be exceptional. And, and we’re fortunate at Goldman to have some incredible investors in, in, in some great areas that really help unlock that for us on the public and the, and the private side, you need to have a way to del to deliver that to the marketplace. So you need to talk to investors about that. So you know, how you market, how you distribute that, that, that needs to come in because you, you know, I’ve seen a lot of great product that nobody knew existed, and so it doesn’t go anywhere. And then, you know, the fourth thing is you kinda have to have an OO operating rhythm. You need to know what your identity is as an asset manager. You need to know what your identity is as, as, as you know, as an executive at these firms and, and have a way to execute against that in a, in a process oriented way. So tho those are the things that I really, I really think about as you frame that conversation.

00:25:11 [Speaker Changed] So Goldman is a big shop. You’re obviously not doing all this heavy lifting yourself. Tell us about your team.

00:25:17 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, no, we’ve got, we’ve got an incredible team across all, all of those areas. So

00:25:21 [Speaker Changed] Who are you working directly with?

00:25:23 [Speaker Changed] Well, that’s one of the beautiful things about my role is I can work across all four of those pillars. And so I, you know, we’ve got incredible people on the op side that are, that are thinking about the foundation, incredible people on the technology side that are thinking about, you know, the, the nervous system of the, of the asset manager. Y you know, our product team is incredibly in innovative. The, the investors. You’ve had some of, some of the investors on here before Asis was on who’s, who’s an incredible, and he was great. He’s an incredible investor. He’s a great story Fascinat guy too. And, and, and so working very closely with him and thinking about, you know, what types of strategies do we need to bring and, and, and so on and so forth. I mean, you, you, it does, it does, you know, that’s this cool thing about this title is it, it does gimme some nice scope to, to execute across really the entire leadership team of the, of 00:26:06 [Speaker Changed] The firm. So you are not looking, when I initially heard this, I, my initial thought is Goldman just wanna be a bigger player in the ETF space, but this sounds much bigger and more comprehensive than

00:26:17 [Speaker Changed] That. So, so when I step back and think about what are the fast growing product areas of, of our industry, there’s, there’s three that are worth calling out. So alternatives, there’s gonna be more alternatives in private investments in particular, particularly retail portfolios going forward.

00:26:36 [Speaker Changed] And when you say privates, we’re talking credit equity debt, real estate. Yes, sir. The whole gamut.

00:26:43 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. And, and, and, and you know, better than I, but there’s companies that are staying private for longer. You, you know, the, the, there’s companies that can access plenty of funding while staying private. So the impetus to go public isn’t necessarily there anymore. Right. But people wanna own these world class companies. And so, you know, that’s an important thing on the credit side if you can enhance your yield a little bit. So, okay, so, so alternatives is, is portfolios that own both public and private is going to be a big thing. So alternatives is, is growing to, to grow exceptionally separately managed accounts and direct indexing. Again, we’re, you know, now we’re talking about investor outcomes and by getting a better tax outcome, can, can we use technology to help improve my outcome on this direct indexing allows you to do that. It gives you, did

00:27:25 [Speaker Changed] You guys build a direct index product or buy a direct index

00:27:28 [Speaker Changed] Product? We built, we’ve been doing this for years. And, and this is one of the, the things that I think makes us unique is, is we’ve got a lot of these capabilities that, that we’re, that we’re homegrown within Goldman in-house, that in-house that we’re, that we’re now delivering to the marketplace on the alt side. We’ve been doing that for three decades. Sometimes it was for Goldman’s own balance sheet, sometimes it was the proprietary thing. But now we’ve made that available to investors around the world so that it’s really an access story there. And then of course, ETFs are gonna continue to grow. And as we think about, you know, public equities, you know, ETF probably has the biggest addressable market and the, and, and one of the largest CERs. But you gotta have all three of those, right? I really think those three. So, so those are the three that I, that I really, I really spend a lot of time thinking about.

00:28:10 And when we think about the gener generational wealth transf that’s gonna happen over the next couple of years, that’s, that’s going to be really profound. And I know that’s definitely something that you spend a lot of time because it’s gonna go to the next generation. The next generation’s gonna want to use their new modern, right, right. You know, the, the, the new modern investment capabilities. And so these are gonna, these are gonna feed right into that. There’ll be tens of trillions of dollars in motion. And how we think about, you know, providing those services to clients is, is, is really important.

00:28:38 [Speaker Changed] So I really have always thought of you as a public markets guy, but you’re, what I’m hearing is, yeah, public markets are gonna be a key part of this, but there’s a lot more beyond just stocks and bonds that are publicly traded and a lot more beyond ETFs and mutual funds. Where do you see Goldman going with privates in GSAM? Within the asset management group?

00:29:01 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. No, I think it, it’s one of our top priorities. So we’ve got decades experience in, in, in doing private investments. And, and, and I do wanna be careful because a lot of times people talk alternatives writ large and it, right, there’s a, there’s a lot of specifics in that, you know, we’re

00:29:16 [Speaker Changed] Not talking about hedge funds. We

00:29:17 [Speaker Changed] Talked about private equity, we talked about private credit. You’ve got infrastructure, real estate, you would use all of those in your portfolio for different outcomes. Real estate and infrastructure, maybe a low correlation or increased yield private credit, like slightly increased yield off public credit. Private equity maybe gives you different upside, you know, opportunity versus, versus public equities. And so you, you, you can use those in your portfolios. And so, but again, it’s just an innovation story. And, and these, these types of investments have been available to investors for decades, but not available to all investors and not available through the, the format that investors wanted to access that. And I, you know, ETFs taught us not only the what, but the how, how do I get access to those ETFs unlocked that. And I think we’re gonna continue to see that on the alternative side, as we, as we have breakthroughs on technology, if we have breakthroughs on access, those will become increasingly available to more and more investors so they can build more specific portfolios. Going back to the purpose of why we do all of this, to get the outcomes that they’re looking for. And if you can incorporate those into your portfolio to drive those outcomes, that really is a differentiator with that. And, and it’s important for us to, to do that. And, and so we’re really focused in those areas.

00:30:27 [Speaker Changed] So, so private alternatives have scaled up over the past few decades from a few billion dollars to a few trillion dollars. How large can this sector expand to over the next decade?

00:30:41 [Speaker Changed] So alternatives and privates substantially, tens, tens of trillions of dollars,

00:30:49 [Speaker Changed] Tens of trillions. Yeah. Like this could be a 20, $30 trillion space. Yeah.

00:30:52 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. I mean, think of, think about the, the, the companies, you know, the, there’s, there’s a couple of companies that come to mind right now that are staying private, that are, that are huge. You know, trillion dollar companies are on the way to being multi-trillion, just a couple of companies, let alone the entire thing. And then when you pull in private credit into that, and when you pull in some of these other areas, I, I, I think this will be massive. And 10 years is a really long time. And yeah, that’s another thing that we’ve learned in this industry is that, you know, even when markets wobble a little bit, once you stretch out and look over the long haul, you’ll hardly see it. You know, these, these things, it, it’s barely, barely registers on the chart. And so these, these things do, do grow in that way. And, you know, I’m, I’m bullish on markets, I’m bullish on, you know, innovation and, you know, as technology unlocks these, these wealth capabilities for more and more investors, that is only gonna be a positive thing to do. So

00:31:40 [Speaker Changed] I’m with you every step of the way so far, but, but let’s take off our, yeah. Sunny, sunny goggles and say, what are the challenges gonna be? How, what are the heavy lifting ahead in order to bring these sort of full suite of services, all these different products, especially these newfangled privates into a core portfolio and a basic model. What’s the challenge here?

00:32:07 [Speaker Changed] Education. And we’ve seen this play out, use my, use my past experience in ETFs. I can’t tell you how many, oh, I don’t know if I’m gonna ever buy an ET f oh, I don’t know if I’ll ever buy a fixed income. Et f come on. Like you, you know, I used to keep a list of people that tell me they would never buy an ETF that eventually call, Hey Brian, could you come tell me a little bit more about those ETFs? And so this, in there, there’s always the early adopters, the, the mavericks, right? And then there’s the, and then there’s the bulk and, and, and it kind of pulls through. And so, you know, I think it’s incumbent upon folks like, like our firm, Goldman, you know, things like this where investors, you know, are educated about what’s available to them. I know your, your firm does a lot of work around that as well.

00:32:50 Education, here’s the benefits, here’s how it works, here’s how, here’s the concerns that you should think about, you know, whether it’s the liquidity or whether it’s the return profile, the timings of those things, the cash flow, these are all things that people need to be educated on. But, but you know, let’s use, let’s use active fixed income ETFs as a proxy. Okay? There was, there was years investors, well, like a bond isn’t, isn’t tradable on the exchange and there’s a liquidity mismatch. So, gosh, what do I do? Well now what we know is that when you put fixed income in an ETF, you basically take an analog ve vehicle and make it digital. We’ve taken these clunky bonds and we’ve made ’em digital. Not only that, but we’ve diversified it. So you buy one ETF ticker that diversifies you across a hundred bonds, often those bonds will trade at a tighter spread than if you went and bought the, the basket of the bonds separately. So you’ve got this innovation effect that happens on, on the exchange. You, you can buy one share, sell one share. You’re not buying big a hundred thousand dollars bond at a time. So

00:33:48 [Speaker Changed] Fractional shares, fractional shares,

00:33:49 [Speaker Changed] You can, you can, you can do all sorts of things. And, and, but it took education for people to understand how that was, was going to work. And I, and I, and I think there’s a really easy corollary there for the alternative space, which we need to continue to do that. I, I wanna live in a good neighborhood. I respect a lot of the firms that we compete with that are also leaning in and trying to educate around, around this space. And, and so I think the industry needs to do a good job of coming together and making sure that we’re educating, but it, but we, we, we need to be intentional about that. We can’t just let it happen. We need to lean in and we need to invest, and we need to make sure that we’re educating people around that

00:34:23 [Speaker Changed] Fast forward 10 years in the future, what does success look like in this space? And I’m not just talking about a UM year three becomes four, becomes seven becomes 10. Hold that aside. What does GSAM look like 10 years from now if you’ve been successful in your role as chief transformation officer? 00:34:46 [Speaker Changed] Outcomes for clients are what they were intending to be. So, so there was a clear understanding of what they wanted to achieve, and we were able to deliver that for them. Tying it back to this conversation, there’s going to be some bumps in the road. There’s going to be some turns that we need to make, getting, getting as many of those right as, as we possibly can. Educating well, making sure that we’re communicating extremely clearly on what it is that we’re delivering to in investors. I might even stop there if, if we can, if, if investors are, are pleased with the outcome and we, and we match their expectations on that, and we get a couple of these tough calls right along the way, I think, I think that would be success for us. Huh. I I don’t think we need to go deeper than that. And, you know, wax lyrical about some of these other things. I think those are the things that we need to, to be focused on.

00:35:39 [Speaker Changed] And sort of a, a a broader question. So you’ve worked in New York, we’ve, you’ve worked in Chicago, you’ve worked in London. What are the differences with these total solutions for US investors and overseas investors? How do they look at, how do they look at ETFs? How do they look at the world of investing? How do they look at privates? There used to be a giant difference. You know, occasionally there were ADRs trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Has the world come together and it’s similar or are there still big differences between someone putting money to work in Berlin or, or Paris versus New York and Chicago?

00:36:19 [Speaker Changed] I remember the first time I listened to masters in business podcast. I was running through Battersea Park in, in London and thinking, wow, this is, this is, this is great. And while Barry always says his guests are extra special, man, I must feel really good. And I was watching the back, everybody’s section. I was wondering if I was gonna get the extra special today or Oh yeah, absolute. Just the special or where, where that was gonna go. You raise an interesting point. It, you know, our world is increasingly global information increasingly travels globally. So there is a convergence that’s happening where portfolios are starting to look more and more similar. You, you, you still do have some home bias things that, that play into portfolios that I think will always be the case. Some of that’s just driven by currency. Some of that’s driven by cultural differences. But there is a convergence. The the conversations that I’m having around the world are on the institutional side. They’re a little bit further ahead on, on the alts thing. They’ve been, they’ve been using over there in globally, I would say globally institutions are closer to 20% of their portfolio and alternatives. Whereas, you know, a typical retail investor is less than 5%. Right? And, and I think the retail investor goes closer to that 20% number. And, and that’s true, that’s true really globally.

00:37:26 [Speaker Changed] Five years ago right before the pandemic, I was having conversation with people in Europe and there was sort of perplexed by the, the passive craze in the us Yeah. And now admittedly we had a lot more scandals in the two thousands. Everything from IPO spinning analyst scan, spinning right up to Bernie Madoff, but they kind of scratched their head and looked at low cost passive indexing as like a distinctly American phenomena. I Is that still the case? Have they, like how much of that is, is tax differences? How much of that is they just want a hand on the tiller? What, what’s, what’s the gap?

00:38:08 [Speaker Changed] So, so you land in London Heathrow, and you’ve got options to get to Midtown. You can take a taxi, you can take the Heathrow Express, you can now take the Elizabeth line. I suppose you could walk if you wanted to. The the point being there, there’s a lot of different ways. And, and really the point is, is, is what outcome are you looking for? And I would say that investors now are saying the best portfolios have active and passive capabilities within them. They both play a role. There’s a sliding scale where sometimes different asset classes should be more attractive on the passive side, sometimes more on the active side. We had this with the Mag seven where you saw such concentration risk in some of those names on the indexes that investors maybe, maybe were managing risk by just going, moving away intentionally from owning all, all, all those names.

00:38:59 I like to remind people, the s and p 500 was launched in 1923, had 233 stocks in it at the time. It didn’t expand to 500 until the fifties. It didn’t become an investible product until, until Vanguard and Bogle put it into a, into basically a fund At the time, in 74, in 75, I, I had, I had early seventies in my, in my head as well, not available in an ETF until 1983. So if, if that was the best investment, why, why did it take 70 years for it to be made available to investors and, and and, and what’s telling us that we should stop that? So I’m a huge believer in innovation going forward then the great investments are being in, in, you know, great investment strategies are being invented every day. I think investors are more and more aware of outcomes as opposed to inputs than than they ever have been. 00:39:48 And so all of these tools, and I, you know, there’s thousands of ETFs now. There’s gonna be, you know, there’s gonna be a lot of alternative capabilities. These are, these are just, they’re, they’re like the songs on, on our, you can put the perfect playlist together for yourself and you can combine all these things to get that, that playlist maybe for the workout, maybe for the commute, whatever that is. And so this optionality, it’s great for investors, it’s a good outcome. Yes, they need to wade through it a little bit more. I’m sure there’s great songs that I haven’t heard yet, but that’s how, that’s, that’s where this thing is going as, as all these, these investments become available in that way.

00:40:21 [Speaker Changed] We were talking earlier about that title and how encompassing it is and that your charge is essentially to revamp and innovate in the entire suite of Goldman Sachs asset management products. Everything from what goes into them, the sort of outcomes you’re looking for. It sounds pretty comprehensive. What is it about today that has led to so many companies saying, Hey, you know, we really are a danger of falling behind and rather than rest on our laurels, we have to become cutting edge and, and be the change as opposed to being affected by the change. Like tell us a little bit about your thoughts there.

00:41:07 [Speaker Changed] So investors have made it quite clear what they’re trying to accomplish in their, in their portfolio. So when you see things that are growing as fast as they are, like direct indexing, which is growing at a CAGR of north of 20% a year. When you see things like SMAs that are growing at the rate that they’re growing, when you see ETFs that are growing at that rate, some firms led, some firms are responding to that, but, but ultimately it’s the investors that are, that are leading that conversation. Now, once we realize that stuff like an SMA or a direct index is the delivery mechanism, ETF is the delivery mechanism. And then what you put inside it is the investment capability. That actually becomes an interesting conversation. So many asset management firms using ETFs as the example are now saying, Hey, we’ve got great investment capabilities, we just need to make those available in, in the ETF technology. Which is, which is how investors are trying to get that, that

00:42:01 [Speaker Changed] Exposure and define SMAs for people who don’t know the shorthand.

00:42:05 [Speaker Changed] So a separately managed account is an account where you as an individual can allocate to a strategy and you actually own the individual names and then they can trade it on behalf of you as an individual as opposed to owning a commingled vehicle like an ETF or a or a mutual fund.

00:42:22 [Speaker Changed] Alright, so let’s talk about some new products that have come out, buffer ETFs. Tell us a little bit about that.

00:42:28 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, I mean this, this just continues on the, on the spectrum as we think about innovation, you know, so a quote comes to mind from Rick Rubin. I don’t, I don’t know if anybody’s ever quoted Rick Rubin here, but you know, how do

00:42:38 [Speaker Changed] You, they have the new book definitely caught a lot of people’s,

00:42:41 [Speaker Changed] It, it’s great, right? And, and you know, so the one that that stuck out to me, and obviously he’s famous for producing the Beastie Boys, which, you know, great New York and, you know,

00:42:47 [Speaker Changed] And a ton of other artists. He’s a ton of artists. His range is kind of incredible.

00:42:50 [Speaker Changed] I love it. And, and, and it’s, it’s absolutely amazing. But, you know, he, he makes two important points. One is it’s not like serendipity happens and lightning strikes. You’ve gotta grind it out. Like these artists that have made some of the most creative and best music, they, they, they’re grinding it out and sometimes it hits and sometimes you really gotta work it. And he’s asked, how do you put together an album of 12 hits? You write 20 songs, you pick the 12 best ones. And so I, you know, that’s something that comes to mind for me. I think, I think really what you’re trying to do is find the tension between innovation and solving an investor need. And you and I could dream up something crazy from an innovation standpoint and wouldn’t solve an investor need and be a waste of time and energy. There’s also needs that are going unmet right now where people need to solve those.

00:43:34 And so you’re constantly looking for that tension between the two. And it really is a team sport. You work with investors that are experts at that. You work at, you know, you look at the data, you talk to clients and understand what it is that they’re trying to, to, to achieve. You know, the way I think about it at Goldman is, you know, to use our music analogy earlier, we make a lot of great rock and roll. Wow. We wanna make sure that it’s available in the MP three rapper, you know, the ETF rapper. And so, you know, we launched Active Muni capabilities, which we think is a differentiator. We’re leaders in that space. And then the

00:44:03 [Speaker Changed] Buffers, active Muni tell us about Active Muni.

00:44:05 [Speaker Changed] Yeah, active muni. I mean you, you know, so if you’re thinking about the, the, the high net worth or the ultra high net worth space, they think a lot about taxes. And so when you think about the muni space right now, you get the tax benefits of, of owning those when you can do all the things that we talked about earlier with fixed income ETFs and munis deliver. You know, you have like a great combination. So we launched the different spectrum of those longer duration, shorter duration, high yield, et cetera, et cetera. And so those are, those are really interesting things. On the buffer side, I think this is also a really fascinating space. Embedding options and strategies isn’t a new thing. Sophisticated investors, insurance companies have been doing this for years. Covered call strategies. You know, I used to work with financial advisors, they did that themselves on some of the names that were in, in the portfolios.

00:44:48 But now that the industry has developed to the way that it has, and you can deliver these ETFs the way that we do, you can start to give investors the outcomes that they’re looking for. And when you put ’em into a big UMA or a broader portfolio, these can really play an interesting, an an interesting role. So buffers are great. You can get invested, a lot of people nervous. There’s uncertainty, whether you know the headline risk of the day, right? Whatever that is. And you say, Hey, you know, these are designed to protect you to the downside, five to 10%, 15%, but you could still participate in the upside. So you can keep yourself inequities. And if that helps you sleep at night and it helps you stay invested, you are going to get a better outcome in, in the long run. And so they’re a tool that investors can use. Along with the other tools we launched three, they’re designed to reset on a quarterly basis. And so there’s some thoughtfulness around that of, you know, at the beginning of each month you’ve got one that’s resetting. So,

00:45:35 [Speaker Changed] So we’re recording this literally first day of the, the new quarter. Yeah. Q1, 2025. If it’s gonna be known for anything, it’s gonna be all about the volatility that, that felt like the craziest 5% drawdown we’ve ever experienced. Wait, that was just 5%. Why did it feel like it was, you know, between the news flows and, and, and all the mayhem around tariffs, how do you see market volatility influencing investor behavior? Is, is the move into products like buffered ETFs, just a short term reaction to the volatility we’re experiencing? Or is this a more long, longer lasting phenomena? Yeah,

00:46:17 [Speaker Changed] This is the, this is the Warren in Buffet, you know, near term voting machine, long-term weighing machine, right? Right. The volatility, the markets inter day that, that’s just bouncing around based on the headlines. I think we’re in an increasingly headline driven marketplace. There’s more information available than ever, whether you’re on X, whether you’re watching Bloomberg, whether you’re listening to something. But at the same time, investors need to be reminded that just because they’re more informed doesn’t mean they need to make new decisions. You need to have a strategy. There’s a lot of strategies that work, by the way. But you need to have a strategy and stick to that strategy. And if you do that and you keep an eye on your expenses and you rebalance on a regular basis, you and I both know the outcomes are gonna be good. If you are panicked in a scenario where the market’s drawn down 5%, you maybe weren’t in the right strategy to begin with.

00:47:00 And so these things are common. The market has a 10% draw down pretty much every single year. So you should expect these things. And so to me it’s all about the preparation. If you’re panic making a decision the day that the s and p is down 1%, you’re doing it at the wrong time. You’re not in the right head space to do that. You should have made that decision six months prior when you were, when you were, you know, thinking, you know, soundly about what was going to happen. And I do think that all these tools that are available, whether it’s buffer ETFs or active munis or you know, some of the other strategies that we’re delivering that those, those can benefit. Now we think about direct indexing, it benefits from these drawdowns because the the way the technology can embed losses in your portfolio can help offset some of the gains that you’re gonna have at some point down down the road. And so, you know, I think investors are starting to wake up to that fact as well is like, oh, hold on a second. O over time the, if, as long as this thing continues to go up this in, in intra month, intraday volatility may actually benefit me in a way, because now these different capabilities are available to me. And, and, and again, that’s something that’s a relatively new phenomenon that’s been unlocked by technology that just didn’t exist before that. So,

00:48:03 [Speaker Changed] So let’s talk a little bit about direct index indexing. We’re big direct indexers, I was skeptical about this, I dunno, 10, 15 years ago, because the technology was so klugy, you would literally get these, you know, stacks of reports. But today because of a free trading and b software, yeah, it, it’s fast, easy. You could tilt it in whatever factor style you want. But, but my initial thought on direct indexing was, oh, some people aren’t gonna want tobacco or don’t want guns. Or you go through all the list of don’ts. But that hasn’t been the biggest driver. It seems like the biggest driver is managing capital gains taxes and tax loss harvesting. Tell us a little bit about Go Goldman Sachs asset management’s p direct indexing product pe

00:48:50 [Speaker Changed] People don’t wanna avoid taxes, they want to defer them, right? And so these

00:48:54 [Speaker Changed] Are, but these aren’t deferring taxes, these are these being able to offset gains. So you are not, it’s not like you’re kicking the can down the road. You are actually paying less taxes according to black letter IRS law, there’s nothing exactly speculative this is, this is well understood and perfectly legit

00:49:12 [Speaker Changed] Re really, really well put. And that’s super clear. And so, you know, basically what happens is you, you manage it back to an index. So let’s call it the s and p 500. And so the idea is we’re trying to give you the s and p 500 outcome, but at any given point in time, some of the names in the s and p might be up, some of the names might be down. And if you can trade and take some of the losses on, on the names that are down, you can offset some of the gains that are on, on the up stuff. You, you know, later on, our technology we developed again in-house, you know, we think it’s a really modern and dynamic technology because it’ll trade on a daily basis. And this isn’t a monthly thing or, or some like set rigid time.

00:49:48 We can actually take, take advantage of some of the, the, the intraday volatility and intra month volatility that, that we’ve been seeing lately. And so, you know, it’s a, it’s a fast growing space for us. We’re I think, number one or number two in the country on, you know, direct indexing solutions. And to your point, it is, it is helping individuals improve their tax outcomes. Now, internationally, you know, direct indexing was a little bit more, you, you know, this customization thing, right? And, and we do still see that with some of our institutional accounts in the US it’s really a tax story. Internationally, it’s a little bit more of a customization

00:50:22 [Speaker Changed] Story. Well, when you say customization, I tend to think of value driven. So o’s Jim O’Shaughnessy told the story of, I think they were managing money for the New York Bishop’s retirement plan. And of course if, if you’re managing money for the Catholic bishops, no abort, offic and no companies that are paying for right. Things like that. Like they’re following a specific set of these are our five key principles and we can’t violate them and express that in a portfolio. You can do that with direct indexing.

00:50:55 [Speaker Changed] Technology allows customization, and that, that’s really what we’re talking about there is there’s a customization based on in that, in that sense, values driven investing and that technology has unlocked that and because maybe one size doesn’t fit all. And so now that we have that technology, you can develop specific strategies as, you know, to drive the outcomes and, and the exposures that people are looking for.

00:51:14 [Speaker Changed] Yeah. So, so look around the corner for me. What are some of the new techno, like ETFs are fairly well established, still not very well adapted, but that’s coming along. What are some of the other technologies we’re looking at down the road? Where, where are the next areas that are ripe for innovation and disruption?

00:51:32 [Speaker Changed] I think the client experience is going to be a, a big part of that. How frequently can you get that information? You, you know, one of the hallmarks of ETFs of the separately managed accounts that we’ve talked about direct indexing is transparency. It, it used to be buyer beware, the, the, you know, the financial services company and their ivory tower had more information than you. And so buyer beware. Now it’s the other way around. Investors have more information available to them than ever before. It’s, it’s a bit like, you know, here in New York City, you know, you, you go to a restaurant, you pull up, you know, your favorite app and you won’t go to a restaurant that’s got less than four stars, that’s got less than a thousand people that have rated it. You have that information as a consumer available to you. And that’s true in the financial services industry as well.

00:52:13 And so that, that’s, that’s the thing that’s really exciting to me is that the transparency that we’re delivering to investors is helping them get that outcomes. And they’re, and they’re more, they’re more aware of that than ever. And I think that’s just going to continue to increase. We, we acknowledge that we need to be providing realtime information. We acknowledge that holdings need to be on the website on a realtime basis. If you want access to portfolio managers, they’re more than willing to talk. That’s the type of innovation that I think we’re going to be seeing.

00:52:41 [Speaker Changed] I wanna throw a curve ball at you. Okay. You’ve spoken about doing the dirty work early in your career. Yeah. Which I think of as, you know, get the reps in, do the heavy lifting. But, but tell us about the dirty work and how that helped shape your work ethic today.

00:52:59 [Speaker Changed] You gotta paint the fence, Mr. Miyagi told us, right? Like, there, there was a method to the madness there. A lot of times, I’ll, I’ll, I’ll talk to people and it’s, you know, they’re, they’re, oh, what about this? I’m trying to, I’m thinking about my career and basically what they’re asking me is, what’s the minimum I can do to get promoted or get paid more money, wax on, wax loss, wax on, wax off. Right? Right. And of course we want those outcomes for people, but if you get your mindset to the spot of I want to deliver excellence. I want to do this job the best that I can. And whether that’s just wrapping up the day’s reports, whether that’s taking your call notes, whether that’s making sure that you’re entering your CRM information correctly and accurately. There’s all sorts of things that you can do excellently.

00:53:38 And we see these people all the time, whether it’s professional athletes or whether it’s some of the great artists that we’re aware of, these are people that want to be professionals and excellent at what they do. They’re not doing the minimum to get promoted to the next thing. And so that to me is the dirty work you gotta do. You gotta do the work and you gotta be willing to push yourself to do that work, have the discipline and carry, carry through on that. You don’t get the virtue if you haven’t done the hard work. And, and so you have to put in the work to get the outcome that you want. And, and what you’ll find is that those things increase, I found exponentially. And so once you start to put in the work, it starts to grow exponentially and you start to see that you,

00:54:18 [Speaker Changed] Are you suggesting that hard work compounds over time? I 00:54:22 [Speaker Changed] Absolutely think it, I think it does. And, and I’ll add to that, you build your talent stack over time. And, and I’ve referred to that a little bit. I love that phrase throughout the conversation, but, you know, I had the good opportunity to have a lot of client conversations, then I learned international, then I learned you, you know, how to work with people that think about things differently than you do. Like, once you add up all these things, you, you can make connections and you can think about things in a way that maybe people that don’t have the same talent stack haven’t thought about.

00:54:48 [Speaker Changed] Huh. Really, really, really fascinating stuff. So let’s jump to our favorite questions. We ask all of our guests starting with what’s been keeping you entertained these days? What are you watching or listening to? Okay, so by the way, this is a pandemic holdover question that I I I keep finding everybody’s 00:55:06 [Speaker Changed] Still on the lookout for like, great stuff. Okay, so let’s keep with the theme. And, and so a big, a big thread that’s pulled through our conversation is innovation and music. So the Defiant ones, the, you haven’t seen it, I’m recognized on your face. It’s

00:55:24 [Speaker Changed] No, I’ve, I’ve seen the, the preview for it.

00:55:26 [Speaker Changed] Jimmy Iovine and Dr. Dre. So the, the, you know, you wanna talk about, it’s

00:55:31 [Speaker Changed] Like an Apple documentary or something

00:55:32 [Speaker Changed] Like that. Well, you think about these two individuals, they basically have produced almost every artist that we’ve heard for the last 20 years, right? It’s firsthand interviews with them and their artists talking about, oh, well, you know, Tom Petty, what was it like when you were singing that song and Jimmy Iovine was in the studio with you yelling at you and do it again and another cut? Or what about what about this? Or, you know, Dr. Dre when you were in Compton in LA early on, like, you know, tell me about what the first record scratch on a hip hop album sounded like. Right? So they’re talking about that now. It culminates in the building of the, the Beats headphones, which was of course acquired by Apple, right? That’s even another meta thing for me as well. So there’s this amazing creative juice. They’re, they’re grinding it out. Both of ’em tell a story of like grinding it out. They create amazing music and then it culminates with, Hey, wait a second. Like there’s not high quality headphones out there for people to, okay, so that’s one The Defiant Ones. It’s, it’s not on Netflix anymore, so you gotta go to Amazon Prime and buy it and, and buy it there,

00:56:26 [Speaker Changed] Or at least Rent

00:56:28 [Speaker Changed] Its a s Rogue Warriors. Never heard of that. Another one on two for

00:56:31 [Speaker Changed] Two. I never heard of that one.

00:56:33 [Speaker Changed] SAS, rogue Warriors World War ii, the UK builds an off record kind of rogue warrior group, the original kind of Seal team six, think about ’em like this. And these guys, they, they start in North Africa and they would do secret missions overnight. They’d go on to German aircraft camps and blow up planes overnight, or they’d really disrupt their fuel flow or they would do these things that were more targeted strikes to disrupt the, the flow. So SAS rogue warriors, I think that maybe is a BBC, it’s more international. You gotta get one of these, one of these other apps to watch that one. Those are the things I’m, I’m watching. I like to listen to audio books. So right now I’m listening, like listening to go like, hell, which is Ford versus Ferrari is the movie that you’ve seen. Sure. That was great. It’s based on this book and how’s, how’s the book?

00:57:21 It’s excellent. It it, it goes to many, many different layers of detail than you can get across in the, in, in the movie quotes from Enzo Ferrari about, you know, you want to go fast, find good competition, find somebody that’s willing to die out there. Like these are, these are great things, right? That are, that are and and innovation there as well. Right? So Shelby comes up with the GT 40, which I, I just took my son to a museum over the last week and we were seeing one of the original GT 40. Sure. 40 of course is the 40 inches

00:57:45 [Speaker Changed] Shockingly low. People don’t realize the 40

00:57:47 [Speaker Changed] Inches tall. The 40 inches tall. Yeah. And one of the drivers was, was six two. So they built a little bubble. They gave him a neck over his, over his, over his head on that, right?

00:57:55 [Speaker Changed] Just so the helmet will fit in the car

00:57:57 [Speaker Changed] Just so the helmet would, would fit on that. Now this is interesting, right? So Ferrari independent auto shopped in, you know, northern Italy and then Big Ford, you know, they’re telling this story of like a big corporate bureaucracy and all these things and how do they compete. And, and then here’s, here’s my last book for you, Barry, how music got free.

00:58:15 [Speaker Changed] I recall seeing that title go by

00:58:17 [Speaker Changed] How music got free. So to really bring all of this home for us today, so the MP three, in fact the MP one, MP two, MP three, and MP four are invented in Germany. What they discover is that the human ear can’t understand the fidelity of the MP four. So they don’t need that much information. So they drop it back down to an MP three. The MP three then launches things like Ready Napster, right? So now Napster is, is out there and all of a sudden the entire music industry, the bottom has fallen out on all of their revenues because instead of spending $18 to buy a cd, everybody is stealing music off of Napster. And this is, this is the parallel to the conversation we were having earlier, the delivery mechanism. We’re all listening to the same music, we’re also listening to the same rock and roll, but this invention. So it tells the story of, you know, guys that are working at the pressing plan of the cd, sneaking out, sneaking the major or the, what do they call them? The master, excuse me, right out ripping it onto the computer and throwing it onto Napster. And then it talks about the Sony executive sitting here in Midtown saying, oh my gosh, my revenues are down 40% this year year because nobody’s buying CDs anymore. And it informs like this real life story of how the entire music industry got through,

00:59:28 [Speaker Changed] How music got free, how

00:59:30 [Speaker Changed] Music got free.

00:59:30 [Speaker Changed] I’m definitely ending that to my list. Tell us about your mentors who helped shape your career.

00:59:35 [Speaker Changed] You know, so I, I mentioned my dad, you know, that, that, you know, I learned so much from him and he guided in that way. I was fortunate, my mom and dad, you know, very loving home. And we were, you know, we were, we were great there. You know, we talked about Ben Fulton, we talked about Bruce Bond to stick with the bees, Bobby Brooks, like these are, these are individuals that are in the industry that I’ve got the utmost respect for. I’ve also been fortunate to have some really good bosses throughout the, the, the years that I learned a little bit something different from, from each of ’em. You know, Bruce is an incredible entrepreneur. Ben’s an incredible product person and entrepreneur in the uk I’d worked with some people that had consulting backgrounds and, you know, at the time I wasn’t so sure. But the, you know, they, the way that they think thoroughly and logically is a real differentiator. And, you know, and then some of the client people that I’ve worked with over the way that they can connect with people and, and really build rapport and, and, and ultimately trust those, I I’ve been very fortunate to, to have those people

01:00:28 [Speaker Changed] In my life. Some, some great names. Our final two questions. What sort of advice would you give to a recent college grad interested in a career in either investing or finance?

01:00:39 [Speaker Changed] You know, we, we talked a little bit about this, but if, if you’re more likely, if you’re fresh outta college, you are rich in time and potentially poor in life. And so that is a distinct advantage where you can take that time and invest in yourself, develop that stack that we talked about earlier. The other thing that I would say is I wouldn’t be at Goldman if I didn’t start at PowerShares years ago. And I had the opportunity to be a small fish in a small pond. And then I grew to be a medium sized fish in a small pond. And then I had an opportunity to go to some of these other firms that I’ve been in now, ultimately at Goldman Sachs. And so I do think sometimes people look for the biggest pond and, and the biggest brand. And I, and I, and I think if you can get into a small pond, you get exposure to more skills in a, in a slightly different way. And you can build that skill stack in, in a different way. You know, I often find people, you know, they want to start in the, you know, the analyst program and go, that’s great. And, and firms like ours train people and, and they do an amazing job. But there are non-linear ways to, to access some of these things.

01:01:40 [Speaker Changed] And our final question, what do you know about the world of investing ETFs products innovation and disruption today that would’ve been useful 30 years ago when you were first starting out?

01:01:53 [Speaker Changed] Ultimately comes back to being a people business. You can have the best innovation, you can have the best product, you can do all like the biggest marketing campaign, all the, like, it’s, it, it’s all about keeping the purpose at the center as your north star of what you’re doing. Outcomes for investors, we talked about this. Help them achieve their financial goals, retire with dignity, pay for healthcare, keeping that at the center and, and making sure that you’re aligned with your purpose around the people. I’ve been so fortunate, you know, you and I have been friends now for going on a, a decade, a little bit more probably others in the industry. It’s, it’s the people that really make this thing, this thing go, you know, I know that sounds kind of cliche, but 25 years ago when you’re just trying to make it happen, you’re, you know, maybe it’s this next thing and it’s, and it’s really sitting down, listening and, and connecting with people. 01:02:38 [Speaker Changed] I think that’s a great answer. We have been speaking with Brian Lake. He is a partner and chief transformation officer at Goldman Sachs Asset Management. If you enjoy this conversation, well be sure and check out any of the 500 and somewhat we’ve done over the past 11 years. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, YouTube, Bloomberg, wherever you find your favorite podcasts. And be sure and check out my new book, how Not to Invest the ideas, numbers, and behaviors that destroy wealth and how to avoid them, how not to invest wherever you buy your books at. I would be remiss if I did not thank the correct team who helps me put these conversations together each week. John Wasserman is my audio engineer. Anna Luke is my producer, Sean Russo is my researcher. I’m Barry Reynolds. You’ve been listening to Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.

 

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UBS Survey Finds "Little Growth" In Smartphone Units "Over Next Few Years" 

Zero Hedge -

UBS Survey Finds "Little Growth" In Smartphone Units "Over Next Few Years" 

Apple's annual developer conference on Monday underwhelmed on the artificial intelligence front, and new survey data from UBS showed softening demand for iPhones. On a broader note, UBS highlighted a cooling period has arrived in overall interest in purchasing smartphones, with the U.S. market seeing the sharpest pullback.

According to UBS Evidence Lab's 2Q25 survey of 7,500 consumers across five countries (US/UK/Germany/Japan/China), the 12-month forward smartphone purchase intent fell from 36% in 2Q25 from 39% in 4Q24, flat YoY. The U.S. experienced the sharpest decline, sliding to 37% from 50% in 4Q24 and 44% in 2Q24. 

"Of particular note was a sharp decline in 12M forward purchasing intents in the US to 37% (from 50%/44% in 4Q24/2Q24)," UBS analyst David Vogt wrote in the note, attributing the drop to front-loaded demand ahead of potential new U.S. tariffs.

Sources: UBS Research, UBS Evidence Lab

The 12-month forward purchase intent share for iPhones fell to 14% from 18% in 4Q24, with the U.S. showing a significant drop to 17% from 24%. Samsung's purchase intent remained stable at around 9%. 

The aspirational replacement cycle, or the expected or intended time that consumers plan to wait before replacing their current smartphone with a new one, lengthened to 31.1 months (2.59 years), up from 29.7 months in 4Q24, indicating slower replacement rates, particularly in the U.S. 

Sources: UBS Research, UBS Evidence Lab

"Among the respondents that indicated they are likely to purchase a device within the next 12M, 82% of indicated they would be willing to accommodate some sort of price hike should smartphone OEMs decide to raise ASPs to offset pressures to BoM cost from tariffs," Vogt noted. 

Sources: UBS Research, UBS Evidence Lab

On the Generative AI front, the much-hyped upgrade supercycle that Wall Street analysts forecasted last fall with the launch of AI-enabled iPhones has largely failed to materialize.

Interest in Generative AI-enabled smartphones rose to 19% from 16% in 4Q24), with China showing the most enthusiasm at 78%. Japan was the only region with negative net interest, while the U.S. had only 8%. 

Sources: UBS Research, UBS Evidence Lab

Only 34% of respondents would pull forward purchases or pay extra for AI features... 

Sources: UBS Research, UBS Evidence Lab

Overall, UBS forecasts modest year-over-year growth in smartphone unit sales of around 1% in 2025, followed by flat growth in 2026. 

"We believe investors expect little growth, if any, in smartphone units over the next few years," Vogt emphasized. 

Not the great news for Apple...

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 07:45

Gavin Newsom And His Cruel Notion Of 'Cruel'

Zero Hedge -

Gavin Newsom And His Cruel Notion Of 'Cruel'

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

Recently, Gov. Newsom weighed in on the Trump administration’s efforts to undo the last four years of border destruction, when an estimated 10-12 million illegal aliens entered the U.S. unlawfully—among them thousands with criminal records.

Of the recent Los Angeles efforts of ICE to detain those who entered and reside here illegally, the governor proclaimed:

Continued chaotic federal sweeps, across California, to meet an arbitrary arrest quota are as reckless as they are cruel. Donald Trump’s chaos is eroding trust, tearing families apart, and undermining the workers and industries that power America’s economy.”

Dissect that statement, and almost everything Newsom said was either not factual or misleading.

Chaotic?” What is chaotic is allowing 12 million unaudited migrants into the U.S. ahead of those waiting years for background checks and legal permission.

The current antidote to a truly chaotic, nonexistent border was to bring some legality and order back to immigration—and not to perpetuate a wild-west border, drug smuggling, cartel profiteering, and child trafficking and abandonment, which were the Biden-era norms.

Chaotic is 1,000 rioters in southern California swarming ICE officers, endangering their safety and lives—and then being contextualized, excused, or even supported by the governor of the state, who supposedly is an upholder of our laws and their enforcement.

Each time Mayor Karen Bass and Governor Gavin Newsom side with violent protests and the intimidation of ICE officers, the greater the chance that an officer will be seriously injured or killed—and the violence will spike. Apparently, both think they are riding a wave of public support, when in fact the latest CBS poll found 54 percent of Americans support such deportations.

California’s elected officials seem clueless that the optics of illegal immigrants torching autos, attacking law enforcement, or pelting bystanders, while waving Mexican flags, are terrible. What is the logic of waving the flag of the country to which one is violently opposed to returning, while assaulting the officers and infrastructure of the very nation in which one is demanding to remain?

Arbitrary arrest quota?” Consider the math. In just four years, Biden allowed between 10–12 million illegal entries, or 2.5–3 million a year, or somewhere between 200,000–300,000 per month, or between 7,000–8,300 a day.

Trying to find, audit, and deport even 10–20 percent of that daily figure, or 800–2000 a day over four years, is not an “arbitrary arrest quota.”

It is instead a formidable but often vain effort to return illegal immigration numbers to where they were before Biden’s systemic lawlessness.

In other words, with the current level of deportations, ICE cannot possibly reduce the population of illegal aliens back to the pre-Biden range of 10–12 million resident illegal aliens before the additional and contrived 10–12 million four-year influx.

In Newsom’s world, how many million breaking the laws and swarming the border are acceptable? Ten, twelve, or twenty million?

“Reckless?” What is reckless is destroying the southern border. Reckless is also allowing an unchecked amount of cartel fentanyl, disguised as prescription or less toxic illicit drugs, to kill 70,000–100,000 Americans per year.

Reckless is empowering the cartels with lucrative trafficking fees for facilitating illegal immigration across a destroyed border.

Reckless is drumming out of the military 8,500 American soldiers who balked at the experimental mRNA vaccine while allowing more than 10 million illegal aliens to flood the border without any medical or inoculation scrutiny.

Reckless is demanding 2–3 forms of independent IDs from U.S. citizens to qualify for the required “real ID” to fly, while allowing tens of thousands of illegal aliens to be exempt from even rudimentary identification.

Reckless is a governor leveling the highest income tax rates in the U.S., the highest gas taxes, among the highest aggregate sales taxes, and still ending up with annual multibillion-dollar deficits.

Reckless is driving 200,000–300,000 middle-class taxpayers out of the state every year, who cannot afford sky-high California prices and receive so few services in return for such high state taxes.

Cruel?” Cruel is overtaxing state social service facilities with hundreds of thousands of foreign nationals, whose sheer numbers imperil the health care of California’s own beleaguered citizen population.

As far as ‘cruel’ governance, perhaps it is defined as the highest gas prices in the nation while sitting atop some of the largest gas and oil reserves in the country. Cruel is watching poor people in Fresno or Tulare County buy gas in increments of $30 in cash rather than filling up their pickups at a prohibitive cost of $130.

Cruel is the California high-speed rail boondoggle that has wasted nearly $30 billion without a single foot of track rail installed and may well be abandoned—its concrete overpasses now testaments to our modern Stonehenge monoliths.

Cruel are the state’s ossified “freeways”—especially the 101, the 99, and I-5—that have remained unchanged for the last half century and record some of the deadliest traffic statistics per mile driven in the U.S.

Cruel is what the state and city of Los Angeles did to their own residents during the recent fires.

Cruel is a derelict mayor—shamelessly attacking those who are trying to enforce federal law—junketing in Ghana of all places at the height of the fire season. Mayor Bass has about as much concern over violent protestors burning cars in Los Angeles as she did for neighborhoods burning while she junketed in Ghana.

Cruel was the Los Angeles deputy mayor (tasked with public safety, no less), who was arrested and convicted for reporting fake anti-Israel bomb threats.

Cruel was the Los Angeles water and power director who allowed a life-saving reservoir to remain abandoned and empty.

Cruel was the fire chief who obsessed over DEI hiring while leaving scores of fire hydrants across the city inoperative.

Cruel were state directives that prevented sane clearing of brush kindling that guaranteed plentiful fuel to ensure an inferno among Pacific Palisades homes.

Cruel were the Coastal Commission and the city of Los Angeles that make it almost impossible to rebuild burned-out homes promptly.

Cruel are destructive regulatory policies that have driven out of the state everything from Tesla to refineries to insurance companies, ensuring that the struggling and vanishing middle classes cannot afford the staples of life.

Cruel are the roughly 40,000 annual traffic accidents in Los Angeles County, after which the culpable drivers often flee the scene of the accident. Does the governor or mayor ever ask why that is so, or worry over the some 8,000 victims who are killed or injured?

Cruel are the state’s “renewable energy” mandates that have skyrocketed the cost of electricity and impoverished state residents—one in four of whom now default on their monthly power bills.

Cruel is the boutique leftism of a generation of elite multimillionaire Bay Area politicians—from Jerry Brown to Nancy Pelosi to Gavin Newsom—whose wealth, office-holding, influence, and zip codes ensured that they were never subject to the baleful consequences of their virtue-signaling ideologies that fell only on distant and vulnerable others.

Trust? Who could trust the state of California, which has become a bifurcated medieval society of the very rich and the subsidized poor, with a complete disdain for the struggling middle class who cannot afford houses, power, fuel, or insurance?

Undermining?” Undermining is better defined as a governor and mayor deliberately ignoring or nullifying federal law in neo-Confederate fashion and siding with violent protestors, while offering the offenders implicit assurances of impunity.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 07:20

Redburn Slaps McDonald's With Rare Downgrade As GLP-1 Drugs Reshape Consumer Habits

Zero Hedge -

Redburn Slaps McDonald's With Rare Downgrade As GLP-1 Drugs Reshape Consumer Habits

As we've previously noted, the shift toward "better-for-you" consumption is well underway, whether fueled by the "Make America Healthy Again" (MAHA) movement or the increasing adoption of miracle weight-loss drugs suppressing appetites. Either way, the inflection point for U.S. restaurants has arrived.

Redburn Atlantic analyst Edward Lewis became the first in recent memory to downgrade McDonald's, cutting the stock from "Buy" to "Sell" on the premise that GLP-1 weight-loss drugs will suppress consumer appetites.

Lewis now stands alone among the 41 analysts tracked by Bloomberg with a bearish stance on McDonald's. He set a Street-low price target of $260, well below the $332 average and the stock's most recent close of $304.78.

Key reasons for the downgrade:

  • GLP-1 weight-loss drugs are curbing appetites and pose a long-term structural threat to the fast-food industry.

  • Lewis argues these drugs will trigger broad behavioral shifts, impacting group dining and reducing habitual demand, especially among lower-income consumers.

  • He warns that what looks like a "1% drag" today could compound into a 10%+ hit over time.

Additional concerns:

  • U.S. consumers are fatigued after years of menu price inflation.

  • Rising tariffs are squeezing brands with limited pricing power.

Also noted: 

  • Initiated coverage on Domino's Pizza with a sell rating.

  • Rated Chipotle as neutral.

  • Upgraded Yum Brands to buy, citing a more reasonable valuation, conservative expectations, and strong international exposure.

Separately, last month, we reported that Goldman analysts Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson informed clients that early indications suggest consumers are shifting and seeking "better-for-you options" at the supermarket.

"Softer snacking demand with outperformance in better-for-you options," Jordan said. 

On Monday, Jordan downgraded General Mills and Conagra Brands due to several headwinds, "including increasing cost pressures (raw materials, tariffs, A&P investments) along with tepid volume demand amid ongoing consumption shifts toward fresh and increasing competition from private label and smaller brands." 

Let's hope these healthy consumer shifts are here to stay amid a nationwide health crisis.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 06:55

China Is Deliberately Using Fentanyl To 'Kneecap' The US, FBI Director Says

Zero Hedge -

China Is Deliberately Using Fentanyl To 'Kneecap' The US, FBI Director Says

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times,

Communist China has a long-term plan to weaken the United States by fueling the fentanyl crisis, according to FBI Director Kash Patel.

Patel sat down for a wide-ranging interview with podcaster Joe Rogan on June 6, saying that President Donald Trump has done an “amazing job” at going after drug trafficking organizations and shoring up the southern border. However, the root of the U.S. fentanyl crisis lies with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), he added, due to China’s exports of fentanyl precursors.

One thing is clear is that China is “not making a ton of money” with its precursor exports, Patel added.

“In my opinion, the CCP [has] used it as a directed approach because we are their adversary,” Patel said. “And their long-term game is, ‘how do I,’ in my opinion, ‘kneecap the United States of America, our largest adversary?’” Patel said.

Patel said that the long-term plan is to “take out generations of young men and women” who could have taken on jobs such as a police officer, a soldier, or a teacher.

“That’s what they [China] are doing, when you wipe out tens of thousands of Americans a year. It’s a long-term plan for them,” he said.

In 2024, there were an estimated 48,422 deaths involving synthetic opioid fentanyl, according to data from the CDC.

In March, Trump imposed an additional 20 percent on Chinese imports over China’s role in facilitating the production of fentanyl.

Patel said China has lied to the world about stopping fentanyl precursors.

“What they did was to trick the world. They came out and said, ‘Hey, we’re gonna sell precursor X.’ They’re like, ‘So now we’re out of the fentanyl trade entirely,’” Patel said. “The problem is, there [are] 14 other precursors you can use to make fentanyl, and they’re still shipping all of those.”

India and Canada

Since assuming the post of FBI chief, Patel said his bureau started a “massive enterprise” to go after China-based companies making fentanyl precursors. Now, the Chinese firms are shipping precursors to India and Canada instead, he added.

“They’re taking the precursors up to Canada, manufacturing it up there, and doing their global distribution routes from up there, because we’ve been so effective down south,” Patel said.

Patel said he “just got off the phone with the Indian government.”

“So my FBI is over there working with the heads of their [Indian] government, law enforcement authorities to say, ‘We’re going to find these companies that buy it, and we’re going to shut them down. We’re going to sanction them. We’re going to arrest them where we can. We’re going to indict them in America if we can. We’re going to indict them in India,’” Patel said.

The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) issued its latest annual threat assessment report in May, expressing concerns about sophisticated fentanyl “super laboratories” in Canada.

The report noted that while fentanyl originating from Canada remains small compared to the volume coming from Mexico, it still poses a concern. “These [Canadian] operations have the potential to expand and fill any supply void created by disruptions to Mexico-sourced fentanyl production and trafficking,” the report states.

In January, two pharmaceutical companies in India, Raxuter Chemicals and Athos Chemicals, were charged with criminal conspiracy to distribute and import fentanyl precursor chemicals into the United States, Mexico, and elsewhere. Bhavesh Lathiya, a founder and senior executive of Raxuter Chemicals, was arrested in New York City and indicted on similar charges.

The companies used deceptive and fraudulent practices to avoid detection, including mislabeling packages, falsifying customs forms, and making false declarations at border crossings, according to prosecutors.

In May, federal authorities arrested 16 individuals and seized more than 400 kilograms of fentanyl across five states, in the largest fentanyl bust in DEA history, according to the Department of Justice.

Patel warned that drug traffickers are producing counterfeit drugs laced with fentanyl and using pill presses to shape them like candy or gummy bears, making them more appealing to young people.

Three Chinese nationals and a China-based company were charged in May for allegedly importing pill presses and other equipment for making “lethal fake pills” into the United States.

“I promised the president, the American people, we will not have kids dying of fentanyl overdoses in our streets. Just give me a little bit more time. We have a massive operation going on around the world on this,” Patel said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 06:30

These Are The Top 10 US States By Defense Spending

Zero Hedge -

These Are The Top 10 US States By Defense Spending

DoD contracts hit $609.2 billion across U.S. states in 2023, up $50.5 billion over the year.

Overall, Texas outranked Virginia as the leading recipient of Department of Defense spending—largely concentrated in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Over the past decade, Texas’ share of defense spending has increased by 10% while Virginia’s has remained fairly stable.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the top 10 U.S. states receiving defense spending, based on data from the U.S. Department of Defense.

Texas Receives the Biggest DoD Contracts

Here are America’s leading states for defense contracts and related spending in fiscal year 2023:

With $71.6 billion in spending, Texas ranks first overall, fueled by an $8.9 billion annual increase.

Lockheed Martin, one of the world’s largest arms companies, operates several factories in Texas, including an F-35 assembly plant. Meanwhile, RTX Corporation and General Dynamics run facilities across the state.

Following in second place is Virginia, home to 247,214 Department of Defense personnel. Strikingly, more than 228,000 acres of land are managed by the Department of Defense across the state. Along with the Pentagon and Marine Corps Base Quantico, it houses the world’s largest naval base.

In third spot is California, with $60.8 billion in spending. With more than 30 military installations and 161,000 active-duty military personnel, California plays a critical role in America’s military and national security operations. Together, defense and security activities contributed 5.1% to California’s GDP, equal to an estimated $196.7 billion in 2023.

To learn more about this topic from a global perspective, check out this graphic on military spending around the world.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 05:45

The New World Order's Endgame

Zero Hedge -

The New World Order's Endgame

Authored by Todd Hayen via Off-Guardian.org,

Imagine it’s late 2025, and you’re at the grocery store, but your digital wallet’s throwing a tantrum. “Transaction denied: You questioned the climate mandate on X.” Your punishment? No organic kale for you, science denying, conspiracy theorist.

Welcome to the New World Order’s fever dream, where autonomy is as outdated as a VHS tape. We’ve all been shouting into the void about this globalist circus since 2022. Since then we’ve dealt with this geopolitical mess through the trade wars, the CBDC obsession, the wars in Europe and the Middle East, the threat of more scamdemics, all building to a 2025 power grab that will make dystopian novelists jealous.

But we don’t sip the Kool-Aid. This article rips apart the NWO’s playbook, exposes its psychological dirty tricks, and hands you a toolkit to stay free. Ready to outsmart the overlords? Let’s roll.

If 2024 were a movie, it’d be a geopolitical thriller with too many plot twists. Elections swept through Africa, the Americas, and beyond, flipping alliances like pancakes. Populists surged in Europe, nationalists flexed in Asia, and the U.S. election had everyone clutching their popcorn. Meanwhile, U.S.-China tensions simmered, Russia played energy czar, and the World Economic Forum (WEF) kept cooing about “global resilience.” The IMF reports trade restrictions tripled since 2019, splintering the world into economic fiefdoms. The U.S. dollar still holds court—over 80% of trade finance—but China’s e-CNY (China’s digital currency) is strutting onto the stage, and sanctions are pushing countries to ghost SWIFT like it’s a bad Tinder match.

This isn’t just chaos; it’s psychological warfare. Constant upheaval—will food prices soar? Will borders lock down?—keeps you jumpy, ready to grab any “stable” lifeline, even if it’s a globalist leash. The NWO feeds on this fear, dangling supranational solutions like the UN’s “Pact for the Future” or WEF’s Great Reset as humanity’s only hope. It’s a classic trick: scare people witless, then offer a saviour. Hey, we’re smarter than all that, eh? Dig into alternative sources like The Kingston Report or Off-Guardian, question every headline, and champion local governance over Davos pipe dreams. The NWO wants you rattled; stay sharp and sovereign instead.

Trade in 2024 was less “global marketplace” and more Hunger Games with extra tariffs. The U.S. hammered China with tech bans, the EU doubled down on protectionism, and supply chains buckled under post-Ukraine energy shifts. Russia, now the world’s gas station, tightened its grip on critical minerals, while inflation had folks rationing their coffee. Canada’s trade spats with the U.S. over lumber didn’t help, and developing nations scrambled for scraps as rich countries hoarded resources. These disputes aren’t just about money; they’re about control.

Psychologically, economic pain is a compliance machine. When your bank account’s crying and the shelves are empty, you’re more likely to nod along to promises of universal basic income or digital ration cards—complete with fine print that says “obey or starve.” You and I see the game: trade wars are a feature, not a bug, designed to funnel power to global elites while leaving us dependent. Remember 2022’s supply chain chaos? It’s back, and it’s wearing a new outfit. We need to fight back by going local. Hit farmers’ markets, barter with your neighbour for eggs, and tell global trade czars to shove it. Your autonomy’s worth more than their imported widgets.

Now, let’s talk central bank digital currencies—CBDCs, or the NWO’s shiny new shackles. By mid-2024, 134 countries, covering 98% of global GDP, were deep in CBDC fever. China’s e-CNY clocked $986 billion in transactions, paying for everything from school fees to hospital bills. The EU’s digital euro is slated for 2025, Brazil and India ran pilots, and even the Bahamas has a digital sand dollar.

Sounds like progress, right?

Nope. These are digital chokeholds. Programmable money lets governments play dictator with your wallet: buy approved goods, fine; fund a protest, no dice. X posts call it a “totalitarian nightmare,” and they’re spot-on. China’s already linking payments to social credit, and the Atlantic Council smirks about “managing privacy” (translation: torching it).

The psychological hook is insidious. CBDCs normalize surveillance, cooing, “Nothing to hide, nothing to fear,” until you’re fine with Big Brother auditing your smoothie budget. Worse, they make money a privilege, not a right, tying your purchases to compliance. Imagine a world where your vaccine status dictates your grocery budget—Canada’s 2022 bank freezes were a sneak preview. Tell me about it, I experienced this firsthand. Don’t fall for the digital bait. Stick to cash, dive into decentralized cryptos like Bitcoin or Monero, and keep your transactions off the grid. The NWO wants your wallet wired; cut the cords and stay free. Of course, we all already know all this.

Let’s channel Carl Jung for a minute, because the NWO’s endgame is a full-on assault on your psyche. Geopolitical chaos, trade wars, and CBDCs are a triple whammy against your inner “self.” Fear from global instability kills critical thinking—think 2020’s pandemic panic, but on steroids. Economic desperation breeds conformity; when you’re broke, you’re less likely to rock the boat. Digital money enforces compliance, turning dissent into a financial death sentence. Together, they’re a psychological cage, designed to make you a docile cog in the globalist machine.

Look at China’s social credit system, where a bad score means no train ticket. Or Canada’s 2022 trucker crackdown, where bank accounts were frozen for waving the wrong flag. These aren’t glitches; they’re blueprints. The NWO wants you scared, dependent, and silent, your autonomy swapped for a pat on the head. I think most of you reading this are built a bit different. Let’s reclaim our psyche with mindfulness to stay grounded, critical thinking to sniff out lies, and community to fight the loneliness trap. Form a book club, start a garden co-op, or just chat with a neighbour who gets it. The NWO thrives on isolation; you thrive on connection.

So, what’s 2025 and 2026 cooking? If 2024’s trends are any hint, brace for digital IDs, CBDC-controlled economies, and trade barriers that make self-reliance a fairy tale. The NWO’s endgame is a world where your every move is tracked, your money’s on a leash, and dissent is a museum piece. But shrews (us dissenters) don’t play dead. Here’s your 2025 battle plan:

  1. Stay Informed: Ditch the mainstream noise for The Kingston Report, Off-Guardian, The Corbett Report, or X’s raw takes. Truth is your superpower.

  2. Protect Privacy: Hoard cash, use encrypted apps like Signal, and embrace cryptos that don’t bow to banks. Your data’s not their toy.

  3. Build Community: Form local networks for bartering, support, or just griping about the WEF. Shrews are a tribe, not a flock, or a herd.

  4. Speak Out: Share your insights, whether it’s a blog post or a snarky meme. Every voice cracks the narrative.

The NWO’s 2025 power grab isn’t a conspiracy; it’s a neon sign flashing “control.” Geopolitical shifts, trade disputes, and CBDCs are the scaffolding, built on your fear and surrender. But you’re a shrew, not a sheep. You see through the psychological smoke, and you’re not here to clap for your chains.

The NWO bets on compliance, so bet on defiance. Stand firm, think critically, and take back your freedom in 2025. The endgame’s coming, but shrews write the rules.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 05:00

These Are America's Largest Defense Contractors

Zero Hedge -

These Are America's Largest Defense Contractors

In 2023, the Department of Defense budget totaled $609.2 billion, equal to $1,819 for every U.S. resident.

Following a wave of consolidation in the past few decades, a handful of defense contractors dominate the industry. At the same time, many of these firms provide a diversified range of capabilities—from munitions and nuclear submarines to services that manage IT infrastructure.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the top U.S. defense firms by contract value, based on data from the Department of Defense.

The Top 10 Defense Firms by Contract Value

In the table below, we show the largest American defense contractors in fiscal 2023:

With $61.4 billion in contracts, Lockheed Martin stands as the largest overall by a wide margin.

Most notably, it completed a $30 billion contract to build F-35 fighter jets for the Pentagon and allies in 2023. Along with this, it was awarded contracts to manufacture precision-strike rockets and nuclear spacecraft.

Following next in line is RTX, formerly Raytheon Technologies, at $24.1 billion in contracts. As the world’s most valuable defense company, RTX is worth $183 billion, driven by its broad range of missile systems, commercial aviation, and advanced technologies.

Ranking in third is Virginia-based General Dynamics, which typically generates the most revenue from its IT systems and marine divisions.

Overall, the number of prime contractors for the Department of Defense has declined from 51 in the 1990s to just five today. These legacy firms include Lockheed Martin, RTX Corporation, General Dynamics, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman.

To learn more about this topic from a global perspective, check out this graphic on military spending by country.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 04:15

James Madison's Appeal To Reasonable Discourse

Zero Hedge -

James Madison's Appeal To Reasonable Discourse

Authored by Susan Brynne Long via RealClearPublicAffairs,

On June 8, 1789, James Madison rose before Congress and performed an about-face. The founder who had opposed the addition of a bill of rights to the Constitution conceded to pressure from advocates of adding amendments to protect Americans against abuses of government power. He gave a speech in which he defended amendments he never wanted.

Madison understood that in the critical moment of the nascent republic, compromise was necessary to move the country forward. His example of moderation amidst hostile rhetoric on both sides is a timely reminder in our present moment of division.

Why did Madison not think a bill of rights was necessary in the American political context?

The framers, led by Madison, codified a reversal of the political order that existed in the British colonial system. The people, not the monarch, were the source of all governing authority in the new republic. Under the Constitution, the people delegated – but did not surrender – their authority to the government. According to many pro-Constitution Federalists, Madison among them, this made a bill of rights superfluous.

The issue over adding a bill of rights originated in the state constitutions. The Virginia Bill of Rights pronounced that all power “derived from the people” before enumerating the protected rights of Virginians. Opponents maintained that this was paradoxical, because it presumed the government’s authority to infringe upon the people, which was declared in the same document to be the source of all governing authority. Nonetheless, many Americans felt that such declarations of their rights were essential.

Speaking in support of this perspective, Thomas Jefferson wrote that “a bill of rights is what the people are entitled to against every government on earth, general or particular, and what no just government should refuse, or rest on interference.” Similar sentiments forced legislators in North Carolina to add a bill of rights to their constitution after their first convention did not draft one.

Madison was ultimately persuaded to change his position on the necessity of a bill of rights by those of Jefferson’s position. In a March 15, 1789, letter answering Madison’s opposition to the protectionary amendments, Jefferson implored his fellow founder that “the good in this instance vastly outweighs the evil.” Madison had posited that an exhaustive list of individual rights was impossible to achieve. Jefferson answered that “half a loaf is better than no bread. If we cannot secure all our rights, let us secure what we can.”

Madison went further than changing his mind: he became an opponent of his own position.

Addressing his fellow delegates to the Constitutional Convention in a steamy Independence Hall, Madison rebutted popular arguments raised against a bill of rights and acknowledged his change in position. “I will own that I never considered this provision … essential to the Federal Constitution,” he noted. But he conceded that the amendments were “neither improper nor altogether useless.”

Answering the argument that a bill of rights was irrelevant to the new American political order, Madison vilified the Constitution’s admission of discretionary authority. The document empowered Congress “to make all Laws which shall be necessary and proper” for the execution of its enumerated powers. A bill of rights, Madison contended, would offer a protection against abuse of this power.

The founder confronted the most formidable argument against adding a bill of rights to the Constitution. By enumerating the rights of the people, would the proposed amendments not “disparage those rights which were not placed in that enumeration?”

To critics raising such opposition, Madison pointed to his proposed amendments, which included careful language. The rights enumerated “shall not be so construed as to diminish the just importance of other rights retained by the people, or as to enlarge the powers delegated by the Constitution.” The Bill of Rights was not an exhaustive list, but rather an additional bulwark against possible abuses by the national government.

Ending his speech, Madison made an eloquent political appeal: “it will be proper in itself, and highly politic, for the tranquility of the public mind, and the stability of the Government” to add a bill of rights to the Constitution.

Madison could have stopped his argument there. Instead, he called for moderation in political rhetoric going forward.

The ratification debates had been fraught with vitriolic language and accusations. Madison took aim at his Antifederalist opponents who had charged Federalists with wanting to “lay the foundation of an aristocracy or despotism” by reordering the American government. Calling for compromise, Madison asked the Federalists to follow his lead and approve the Bill of Rights. This would prove that “they were as sincerely devoted to liberty and a republican government” as their opponents.

Madison’s commitment to cross-party compromise, and his appeal to temper political rhetoric, are relevant to our present moment. Democrats and Republicans alike often use dire, inflammatory language when discussing a range of contemporary issues. The impending financial shortfall of Social Security could cause a devastating recession. President Trump’s 2024 election signaled “the end of democracy” in America. Over 200 years ago, similar rhetoric spurred James Madison not to greater indignation, but to a political sacrifice that led to the ratification of the U.S. Constitution.

Between ideology and national unity, and even survival, Madison chose the latter. Modern lawmakers would be wise to reflect on his example.

Susan Brynne Long, Ph.D., is a historian at the U.S. Army Center of Military History and a fellow with the Jack Miller Center.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 03:30

Visualizing AI Innovation Across The Globe

Zero Hedge -

Visualizing AI Innovation Across The Globe

AI is no longer a theoretical tool, only accessible in research labs. Today, it is a ubiquitous technology being adapted across every industry, driving intense global competition and spurring innovation.

For the second story in the AI For All series, Visual Capitalist partnered with ACT | The App Association to provide a global perspective on AI innovation.

A World of AI Innovation

With a healthy global spread of AI companies providing computing and foundational models, there is a robust competitive environment driving innovation.

Incumbents in the largest markets, who have the lead in the AI race, face fierce competition from scrappy AI startups around the globe.

It’s not just the vast U.S., Chinese, and European markets that are making advancements in AI. Innovators around the world, including from lower-middle-income nations (according to World Bank classifications) such as India, are thriving and competing on an equal footing.

Regulation or Innovation

Some policymakers are eager to regulate AI.

Rapidly evolving technology often prompts government overreactions, and when regulation overreaches, it risks stifling innovation

When balancing innovation and regulation, policymakers must ensure that the benefits they create outweigh the costs they impose.

A heavy-handed approach to AI regulation only strangles innovation or forces innovators into jurisdictions with less regulation. In either case, both consumers and competition suffer.

Are you looking for more insights into the world of AI?

The App Association will release its comprehensive guide on June 12th, 2025, examining how premature or overbroad antitrust action could jeopardize AI innovation and outlining a policy approach better aligned with the realities of emerging technology.

But if you can’t wait until the 12th, you can learn more about the AI economy here.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 02:45

30 Days Of Merz's Germany: No Chainsaw, No Reform

Zero Hedge -

30 Days Of Merz's Germany: No Chainsaw, No Reform

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

After thirty days under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the contours of his government are becoming clearer. From an economic policy perspective, the diagnosis is sound—but the treatment will worsen the disease.

Those who remember the Bundestag battles between then-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) and his fiery rival, opposition leader Friedrich Merz, recall a man who once wrapped his rhetoric in the cloth of classical liberalism. Back then, Merz championed free enterprise where the state overreached, demanded tax cuts where the middle class was burdened, and called for deregulation to unleash growth. Had the "Milei chainsaw" existed in his time, Merz would have snatched it up with pride.

But those sweet days of opposition are long gone. Today, the spirit of the old CDU-SPD “grand coalition” has returned—with Merz sounding more like a budget manager than a reformer.

Big Promises, Hollow Delivery

Merz began his term promising to reignite the “power of the social market economy.” But across Berlin, there’s hardly anyone who knows how to make good on that vision. He spoke of liberating the economy, cutting red tape, recommitting to Germany’s constitutional debt brake, and ending the green-socialist central planning that’s throttled growth.

Yet skepticism is warranted. His campaign promises already lie in shambles, not least on migration. Germany's border crisis continues under the fig leaf of federal police presence—a familiar pantomime. The Merz-led CDU bears sole responsibility for blocking real reform by childishly excluding the AfD from any policy alignment. This exclusion has sabotaged a possible political pivot. The “traveling chancellor,” who’s spent more time abroad than at home, will eventually crash headlong into immigration reality.

Style Over Substance

Merz’s zigzag course on the debt brake illustrates his preference for optics over substance. Instead of defending the constitutional limit on borrowing—a cornerstone of conservative fiscal thinking—he caved to his new left-leaning allies. Exploiting extra-budgetary “special funds” to circumvent the constitution is fiscal malpractice. The debt brake, once a firewall against runaway spending, is now exposed as a paper tiger.

Merz seems more inclined to avoid conflict than to defend the future. He trades tomorrow’s prosperity for today’s consensus. But real political discourse requires conflict—especially with those partners who uphold the so-called firewall against the AfD. In the moralizing echo chamber of the mainstream, real fiscal debate has no place.

Rising welfare costs due to recession, labor market erosion, and uncontrolled immigration will be patched over with increased payroll taxes and federal transfers. And as absurd as it may sound, the government’s solution is a trillion-euro “investment package” intended to give the illusion of forward momentum. Real reforms—on pensions or health care—remain off the table. Public debt is set to surge from 63% to 95% of GDP, pushing Germany into the middle tier of Europe’s debtor nations. But as long as social peace (or coalition harmony) is preserved, the price is deemed acceptable.

Fantasy Tools for a Real Crisis

Berlin bets on baby steps: a slight cut to corporate taxes, a reinstated degressive depreciation rule. These micro-measures are bundled under the marketing slogan “investment booster.” Familiar buzzwords return—cutting bureaucracy, speeding up permits, digitalizing the administration. Merz talks of a “business-friendly climate” but offers little more than old slogans in new wrapping.

Even his flagship idea—“growth ateliers”—to simplify bureaucracy for small firms is more linguistic inflation than serious reform. No ministries have been eliminated. The civil service continues to grow unchecked, the last booming “sector” of the economy. Businesses now bear €146 billion annually in administrative costs. In today’s Germany, entrepreneurs serve as fiscal prey.

Had Merz been serious about reviving Germany’s economy, he would have acted swiftly to reduce both living and production costs. Abolishing the CO₂ tax, scrapping the solidarity surcharge, or reopening the door to nuclear power would have been powerful signals. But nothing of the sort will happen. The list of rational reforms grows the deeper one ventures into Berlin’s political jungle. Merz needed a chainsaw. He won’t even pick up a paring knife.

Empty Words, Heavy Consequences

Given the crisis in Germany’s key industries—especially automotive—one might have expected a bolder course. Ending Brussels’ and Berlin’s war on combustion engines would be a start. The construction sector remains flatlined. Yet no serious attempt is made to roll back overregulation or the self-destructive climate laws. ESG mandates won’t be repealed. The “Heating Act,” the green centerpiece of the last government, will remain in place—merely “reformed.” Translation: pretend to change, preserve the core.

So far, the new government’s trajectory mirrors that of its predecessor. Merz frequently invokes Ludwig Erhard, the father of the social market economy, but betrays no real commitment to his principles. As the U.S. turns up the pressure in the trade war, Merz will face a decision: side with Brussels in building Fortress Europe, or begin dismantling the regulatory stranglehold on the Eurozone economy.

Either way, he’ll do it with a straight face. For like his predecessors, Merz too wants to go down in history as a “climate chancellor.”

* * *

Thomas Kolbe, born in 1978 in Neuss/ Germany, is a graduate economist. For over 25 years, he has worked as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/10/2025 - 02:00

Amazon To Invest $20 Billion In Pennsylvania To Expand Cloud Infrastructure

Zero Hedge -

Amazon To Invest $20 Billion In Pennsylvania To Expand Cloud Infrastructure

Amazon Web Services (AWS) is doubling down on its AI ambitions with a $20-billion expansion plan to build two new data center campuses in Pennsylvania, including one directly adjacent to a major nuclear power plant, Reuters reports. 

AWS is targeting the deployment of multiple data centers over the next 10 years, and the buildout will be fueled by carbon-free nuclear power, making it one of the largest private-sector nuclear-backed energy deals in the U.S. to date, according to OilPrice.

The first site, slated for Salem Township near the 2.5 GW Susquehanna Steam Electric Station, leverages a standing engineering framework based on the campus’s 960 MW design capacity. 

Amazon is partnering with Talen Energy, a former power utility-turned-nuclear innovator, which will supply the cloud giant with electricity from its Susquehanna nuclear power station, located in Luzerne County. Talen previously spun off its nuclear arm into Cumulus Data, which is developing a 475 MW data center campus adjacent to the power plant. That infrastructure will now be part of Amazon’s AI backbone.

That project is currently under FERC review after regulators capped its supply to 300 MW, citing grid reliability concerns. Still, AWS is pushing ahead, eyeing renewable-like stability without the typical grid bottlenecks.

Analysts say the move could accelerate the return of baseload nuclear as a strategic energy asset in the U.S. data economy. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro called the deal the largest in the state’s history, with construction expected to generate over 1,250 union jobs in the near term.

"Pennsylvania is competing again—and I'm proud to announce that with Amazon's commitment of at least $20 billion to build new state-of-the-art data center campuses across our Commonwealth, we have secured the largest private sector investment in the history of Pennsylvania," said Shapiro

In the broader energy context, Amazon’s bet aligns with a rising wave of private-sector clean energy procurement that hopes to successfully sell a different story about AI’s energy use: That hyperscalers can reframe this as ESG-possible. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 23:10

Plane With Up To 20 People On Board Crashes In Tennessee, Officials Say

Zero Hedge -

Plane With Up To 20 People On Board Crashes In Tennessee, Officials Say

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A plane with as many as 20 people on board crashed in Tennessee on Sunday, leading to several people being airlifted to hospitals, the state highway patrol confirmed.

A plane with as many as 20 people on board crashed in Coffee County, Tennessee, on Sunday, officials say. Tennessee Highway Patrol

Initial reports suggest 16–20 people were on board. Some have been airlifted to nearby hospitals,” the Tennessee Highway Patrol wrote in a post on social media platform X, adding that the plane went down in Coffee County, around 60 miles south of Nashville.

In a post on Facebook, the highway patrol said that several people have been flown to hospitals. Others are being evaluated on-site, it added.

This remains an active and developing situation,” said the law enforcement agency. “Tullahoma first responders and Coffee County EMS are leading response efforts. Please avoid the area to allow emergency crews room to operate safely. They will share more updates as information becomes publicly available.”

Based on the two social media posts, no fatalities have been reported as of Sunday afternoon.

Video footage released by the highway patrol on social media show the aircraft appears to be a small plane, which was broken in half.

The Epoch Times has contacted the City of Tullahoma, where the crash took place, for comment.

A spokesperson told CNN there were no fatalities, saying that the incident occurred at the Tullahoma Regional Airport. Federal Aviation Authorities officials are en route to assist in the investigation, the spokesperson added.

More details about the victims, the injuries, and information about what led up to the crash or how it occurred were not immediately available.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 22:40

Iran Says It Obtained Trove Of Documents On Israel's Secret Nuclear Arms

Zero Hedge -

Iran Says It Obtained Trove Of Documents On Israel's Secret Nuclear Arms

Iranian Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib is claiming Tehran has acquired a "treasure trove" of sensitive Israeli documents, including information on Israel's secret (but long not-so-secret) nuclear weapons program, as well as apparent evidence of US and European knowledge and support.

"The transfer of this treasure trove was time-consuming and required security measures. Naturally, the transfer methods will remain confidential, but the documents should be unveiled soon," Khatib said. He vowed to make them public, at which point this could force either an Israeli or US official statement.

A partial view of the Dimona nuclear power plant in the southern Israeli Negev desert, AFP.

Iranian state TV unveiled the alleged clandestine operation on Saturday, though no evidence was provided. Additionally, Israel has yet to acknowledge anything regarding theft of its files, which may have occurred through a cyber-breach.

The Associated Press reporting on Khatib's words strongly points to cyber espionage, given the US-sanctioned intelligence chief's background:

Khatib said members of the Intelligence Ministry “achieved an important treasury of strategic, operational and scientific intelligence of the Zionist regime and it was transferred into the country with God’s help.”

He claimed thousands of pages of documents had been obtained and insisted they would be made public soon. Among them were documents related to the U.S., Europe and other countries, he claimed, obtained through “infiltration” and “access to the sources.”

He did not elaborate on the methods used. However, Khatib, a Shiite cleric, was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury in 2022 over directing “cyber espionage and ransomware attacks in support of Iran’s political goals.”

Israel has for decades had an undeclared nuclear weapons program, which the United States has never formally acknowledged, also with the State Department consistently refusing to answer questions on it.

The nuclear arsenal is commonly estimated to be somewhere in the range of 90 to 300 warheads, and it being undeclared means it remains completely outside international oversight.

Regional Muslim-majority nations have long called out Western hypocrisy on the issue. Iran's nuclear energy program has been tightly monitored under the prior Obama JCPOA nuclear deal, and current talks with Washington aim to reestablish a similar monitoring regimen. Certainly Tehran will attempt to leverage these alleged documents as it deals with Washington on the issue.

The US has also fought entire wars on the basis that an Arab regime might have WMD (weapons of mass destruction) - with Iraq and Libya being notable cases. Gaddafi was convinced by the Bush administration to 'come in from the cold' and give up any nuclear or chemical weapons aspirations, only to be overthrown by NATO-backed and al-Qaeda linked rebels a decade later, with the help of US, French, and UK warplanes.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/09/2025 - 22:10

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