Individual Economists

Nike Turnaround Falters As UBS Says There's "No Reason To Buy" Stock

Zero Hedge -

Nike Turnaround Falters As UBS Says There's "No Reason To Buy" Stock

Nike shares fell 3% in premarket trading after the struggling athletic apparel giant warned on its earnings call that revenue declines over the next two quarters will be worse than previously expected, underscoring that there is still no immediate turnaround to halt a multi-year bear market that has driven the stock to decade lows.

"We are not expecting the environment to improve meaningfully over the next six months," Nike's outgoing CFO Matt Friend told investors on Tuesday evening.

Customers are "under pressure around the world, and we can particularly see it having a larger impact on sportswear," Friend added.

Nike now sees sales falling in the low-to-mid single digits, down from an earlier view of a low-single-digit decline. The slowdown is expected over the next six months and is mostly due to slower wholesale shipments in North America, among other factors.

The downbeat commentary offset better-than-expected fourth-quarter sales and profits, which were largely in line with expectations. Management warned that the operating environment became "increasingly challenging" as the quarter progressed, with North America slowing by mid-April.

Our immediate takeaway is that Nike's reset remains ongoing, and any turnaround plan will likely take much longer than initially anticipated, continuing to pressure the stock.

UBS equity analyst Jay Sole, focused on retail, department stores, specialty softlines, apparel, footwear, and consumer discretionary stocks, was blunt with clients: "We don't see a reason to buy the stock."

Sole explained why clients should hold off for now from attempting to bottom-fish the stock, which is currently trading at 2014 levels:

The pivotal Nike question remains "Is all the 'bad news' now priced in?" Despite the pullback in Nike's stock price, we still don't see a good entry point. Nike's stock price is still not cheap at ~27x our FY27 EPS estimate, in our view, and this suggests a solid rebound remains priced in. We continue to see a balanced upside/downside skew. The main upside risk is Nike returns to positive sales growth with expanding gross margin faster than expected. Yet the main downside risk is the rebound takes much longer than the market anticipates. Nike's 4Q report did not cause us to change our thesis much.

Nike's 4Q report underscores upside and downside sales and margin risks:

1. Nike lowered its CY26 sales guidance, but there were bright spots within the outlook. Nike lowered its CY26 sales growth forecast to -L to -MSD% from -LSD %. We believe the main negative factor is Nike's fashion business continues to struggle. The issue is Nike's fashion business remains 50% of its sales mix. Nike may need to take this percentage much lower over time in order to reestablish itself at the world's best sports brand. If so, it could serve as a major, multiyear drag on Nike's top line. This is the main downside sales risk. At the same time, Nike's performance business grew 5% in Q4. Plus, the company sounded like it is in the process of replicating the operational improvements made in categories like running to other sports categories such as basketball, training, outdoor, and tennis. If so, this could lead to upside sales growth surprises over the NTM. This is the main upside risk, in our view.

2. Nike offset its lowered sales expectation with raised margin guidance. Nike boosted its GM% outlook slightly and trimmed its SG&A outlook in order to maintain its CY26 guidance. This was a mild positive surprise to us and Nike is citing its ability to continue to tightly manage costs as one means of restoring its EBIT margin back to 10% over time. However, Nike's average annual SG&A growth rate over the past 4 years (FY27e included) is just 0%. Our concern is Nike is underinvesting in future growth in order to limit near-term downward EPS revisions. Thus, a main downside margin risk is that Nike will have to ramp up SG&A more than expected to return to sustainable top-line growth.

We maintain our FY27, FY28, and FY29 EPS estimates:

We lower our FY27 sales growth forecast given Nike's plan to reduce its inventory buys. Plus, we see greater revenue pressure post Q1 as Nike moves past major sporting events like the world cup and laps elevated promotions on its digital channel. At the same time, we raise our operating margin forecast related to annualizing new efficiencies in Nike's supply chain and technology divisions. Plus we see slightly lower risk Nike's promotions

Separate analyst commentary (courtsey of Bloomberg):

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Poonam Goyal

  • "Nike's sales recovery is likely to take longer as management tightens buys and sell-in to clear sportswear, Jordan, streetwear and China inventory, even as margin can expand sooner"

Citi analyst (neutral, PT to $45 from $47)

  • Nike's sales are looking a little weaker, while margins are a little better.
  • “After sales slowed in mid-April within 4Q26, June (1QTD) has improved, helped by excitement around global football"

Guggenheim analyst Simeon Siegel (buy, PT $60 from $74)

  • The bottom line is that "we assume investors will still question whether Nike has 'ripped the band-aid' on earnings revisions"
  • Trim price target on "recognizing ongoing noise and a general reduction in retail multiples"

Jefferies analyst Randal Konik (buy, PT to $75 from $90)

  • The fourth-quarter report "came in ahead with kernels of progress solidifying in the base business"
  • "Sportswear/Jordan Streetwear still the overhang, but not getting worse"

RBC Capital analyst Piral Dadhania (sector perform, PT $50)

  • Revenues remain reliant on wholesale, whilst direct-to- consumer trends remain soft, which is "not likely sustainable mid-term"
  • "Nike has delivered a mixed 4Q26 quarter (ex US tariff refund) with anticipated lack of underlying revenue momentum offset by more favourable FX translation benefit which flatters absolute gross profit"

According to Bloomberg data, there are 17 "Buy" ratings on the stock, with 23 "Neutral" ratings and 3 "Sell" ratings.

Read The Market Ear note on Nike's epic demise titled "Go Woke Go Broke: Nike Stopped Obsessing Over Athletes And Started Obsessing Over Activism."

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 08:05

Outgoing UK PM "Proud To Have The Gayest Parliament Of All Time Anywhere In The World"

Zero Hedge -

Outgoing UK PM "Proud To Have The Gayest Parliament Of All Time Anywhere In The World"

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

As outgoing Kier Starmer prepares to depart amid cratering approval ratings and deep public disillusionment, his 'Pride' reception remarks this week reveal a leader more focused on cultural signalling than addressing Britain's pressing crises.

Starmer took to the stage at a Downing Street Pride reception to defend his government's LGBTQ+ record, even as scepticism grows within parts of that broad community and his wider popularity sits at dismal lows.

Starmer struck a defiant tone, insisting his administration would continue championing these issues. "I want to be clear that all lesbians, all gay, all bi and trans people - that this government will defend your rights," he declared. "We have to stand against the politics of division."

He praised what he called global leadership in representation, stating Westminster is "the gayest parliament... anywhere in the world" and telling attendees to "celebrate that."

Starmer highlighted a "full trans-inclusive ban on abusive conversion practices," describing conversion therapy as "a very sinister idea... trying to suggest that identities aren't legitimate."

As we have highlighted, under Starmer's watch, authorities advanced measures on this front that risk criminalising parents who question their child's rush toward gender transition. A draft bill on "conversion practices" carries penalties of unlimited fines and up to five years in prison. Equalities Minister Olivia Bailey framed it as protecting against abuse driven by the "false belief that being LGBTQ+ is shameful."

Critics argue the vague language could ensnare normal family discussions, exploratory talks, or references to evidence questioning youth medical transitions.

This unfolds alongside school guidance permitting social transitions for four-year-olds and exam boards embedding pro-trans messaging in subjects like GCSE Spanish. Campaigners like Maya Forstater and Helen Joyce have warned of ideological capture in education.

Elsewhere during his Pride ramble, Starmer pointed to the HIV Action Plan aiming to end new transmissions by 2030 and changes to equalise hate crime strands, and announced £21 million for global LGBTQ+ rights and a new Special Envoy, framing the fight as "global."

Starmer positioned his government as restoring the UK's reputation after predecessors damaged it: "We are here to restore it." He closed by reaffirming personal commitment: "I will always fight for respect and dignity. It didn't start when I became Prime Minister. It won't end when I don't."

These remarks come as Starmer exits following his June 2026 resignation announcement, with approval ratings plunging to joint historic lows around net -46 or worse - among the poorest for any modern prime minister. Public sentiment has turned sharply against him, reflecting frustration with a tenure marked by perceived failures on everyday concerns.

While Starmer celebrates certain milestones, a closer look at his record reveals policies that have alarmed parents, heightened security risks, strained social cohesion, and eroded basic freedoms.

Persistent Failures on Grooming Gangs

Starmer's government has drawn intense scrutiny for its handling of grooming gang scandals, where systemic issues involving organised abuse in certain communities have long demanded robust action. Public trust eroded further amid perceptions of inadequate accountability and prevention efforts.

Mass migration as a tool of undermining social cohesion

Starmer's administration continued policies seen as weaponising migration while cracking down on those noticing demographic impacts and security failures.

Former Prime Minister Liz Truss recently directly linked surges in random violence to mass migration policies, arguing left-wing approaches deliberately erode the nation state and family. Relentless stabbings and assaults have fueled fury, with responses often focusing on suppressing discussion rather than root causes.

Banning Critics While Welcoming Extremists

The government has barred anyone it disagrees with from entering the country, including Dutch commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek shortly after she criticised Starmer, citing public good grounds despite her focus on cultural preservation.

In contrast, Starmer expressed delight at welcoming Alaa Abd el-Fattah, an activist with a track record of extreme posts including hatred toward white people, calls for violence against police and Zionists, and praise for figures like Osama bin Laden.

Starmer posted: "I'm delighted that Alaa Abd El-Fattah is back in the UK and has been reunited with his loved ones... Alaa's case has been a top priority." This occurred alongside record Channel crossings and hotel accommodations for arrivals.

Criminalising speech and humour

Britain under Starmer saw massively expanded efforts to police expression. Lucy Connolly, previously imprisoned for a post, faced threats of recall for sharing a satirical Maduro-style joke about Trump and Starmer. Probation cited it as poor behaviour after complaints of inciting violence.

Comedy writer Graham Linehan was arrested at Heathrow over three gender-critical tweets, held in a cell, and hospitalised with dangerously high blood pressure from the stress. JK Rowling condemned it as "totalitarianism."

Creating a dystopian mass surveillance apparatus

Proposals emerged to compel platforms to prioritise BBC content against "disinformation," part of broader controls including a thought police unit on migration narratives, crisis information blocking, and social media bans framed as safety measures but risking total oversight.

Starmer's exit leaves a country transformed by these priorities. As everyday Britons face rising costs, safety concerns, and restricted speech, the emphasis on niche cultural victories over national cohesion stands in stark relief.

It currently appears Stamer will simply be replaced by Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Manchester, without a leadership contest. Burnham is by all accounts even more left-wing and more focused on ideological virtue signalling causes than Starmer.

Only when a new general election is called will the British people be offered a chance to refocus on restoring seriousness, security, and the freedoms that once defined the country - before ideology supplanted reality.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 07:45

Container Ship Runs Aground In Hormuz Chokepoint

Zero Hedge -

Container Ship Runs Aground In Hormuz Chokepoint

Hormuz vessel traffic continues to flow, but at a sharply reduced pace compared to the previous week, as US-Iran technical talks resume in Doha without senior negotiators meeting face-to-face.

Data research firm Kpler noted, "Hormuz traffic holds steady." 

The latest disruption in the strait, beyond the persistent threat of Iranian naval mines and suicide drones, was caused by a foreign container ship running aground after entering shallow waters outside the Iranian-designated shipping route.

Qatar-funded international news network Al Jazeera cites Iran's state media, which provided more details on the maritime incident early Wednesday:

A foreign container ship has run aground in the Strait of Hormuz after entering shallow waters outside ‌the shipping route designated by Iranian authorities, Iran's state media says.

The news report reiterated the Revolutionary Guard's warning that vessels should transit only through the corridor south of Iran'sLarak island, which Tehran says is the sole approved entry and exit route ‌for ships passing through the strait.

In a separate report, Bloomberg cites the Iranian Navy as saying that it "has repeatedly warned ship captains, owners and officials of global shipping companies that any entry or exit via routes other than the authorized one could lead to irreparable incidents."

Beyond the Strait, and focusing on markets, the beginning of the normalization process to reopen the critical waterway sent commodity prices sliding 9% month on month in June, as conflict fears eased following the US-Iran interim peace deal.

HSBC analyst Jamie Culling told clients:

Global commodity prices fell in June, with our index down by an average of 9% m-o-m, after having reached its highest level since Q3 2022 in May. In June, this left commodity prices up 14% year-to-date, down from 25% year-to-date in May.

The decline largely reflected the impacts of an improving outlook surrounding the US-Iran conflict, including increased traffic flow through the Strait of Hormuz (see Commodity Economic Comment: Better, but the Hormuz disruption is not over yet, 25 June 2026). After the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz picked up. The Brent oil benchmark fell to its pre-conflict level, reflecting an improved supply outlook.

Nonetheless, it is still early days. Transit rates through the Strait are still well below pre-war levels. Insurance is still expensive. Risks and uncertainty remain high, and the situation is fragile, highlighted by missile strikes from both sides over the past week which saw transits through the Strait of Hormuz dip (Bloomberg, 26 June).

Even as the broader news cycle has moved on and fatigue sets in, all things Hormuz, whether vessel traffic rates, insurance coverage, shipping costs, and Gulf export flows, will remain in focus this summer. The question is whether Tehran still retains full leverage over the waterway, or whether the normalization process has begun to dilute its ability to weaponize the world's most important maritime chokepoint.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 07:20

The World Is Becoming Increasingly Divided By Fertility

Zero Hedge -

The World Is Becoming Increasingly Divided By Fertility

The world is becoming increasingly divided by fertility.

One group of countries now has too few births to naturally replace its population, while another continues to see population growth driven by higher fertility rates. This demographic divide has major implications for aging populations, labor markets, immigration, and future economic growth.

This map, via Visual Capitalist's Jeff Desjardins, shows which countries are above and below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman, using projections for 2025 from the UN World Population Prospects 2024 Revision.

While the regional patterns are striking, several countries buck the trend.

Fertility Rates by Country

The table below lists projected fertility rates for 2025 and whether each country falls above or below the 2.1 replacement threshold.

Country Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Above or Below 2.1
(Replacement Rate) Chad 5.94 Above Somalia 5.91 Above DR Congo 5.90 Above Central African Republic 5.81 Above Niger 5.79 Above Mali 5.42 Above Angola 4.95 Above Burundi 4.68 Above Afghanistan 4.66 Above Mozambique 4.62 Above Mauritania 4.56 Above Mayotte 4.50 Above Tanzania 4.47 Above Benin 4.42 Above Yemen 4.41 Above Nigeria 4.30 Above Sudan 4.19 Above Cameroon 4.19 Above Ivory Coast 4.17 Above Togo 4.07 Above Uganda 4.06 Above Congo 4.05 Above Guinea 4.04 Above Equatorial Guinea 4.04 Above Burkina Faso 4.00 Above Zambia 3.97 Above Madagascar 3.84 Above Ethiopia 3.81 Above Gambia 3.80 Above Liberia 3.79 Above Comoros 3.76 Above Samoa 3.75 Above Senegal 3.71 Above South Sudan 3.71 Above Guinea-Bissau 3.68 Above Zimbabwe 3.62 Above Sierra Leone 3.61 Above Eritrea 3.61 Above Rwanda 3.59 Above Gabon 3.54 Above Malawi 3.53 Above Vanuatu 3.53 Above Sao Tome and Principe 3.53 Above Pakistan 3.50 Above Solomon Islands 3.47 Above Uzbekistan 3.45 Above Ghana 3.30 Above French Guiana 3.29 Above Nauru 3.25 Above Palestine 3.19 Above Iraq 3.17 Above Namibia 3.17 Above Tuvalu 3.14 Above Kenya 3.12 Above Kiribati 3.09 Above Tonga 3.07 Above Papua New Guinea 3.03 Above Tajikistan 2.99 Above Kazakhstan 2.95 Above Marshall Islands 2.82 Above Israel 2.75 Above Kyrgyzstan 2.75 Above Egypt 2.71 Above Guam 2.71 Above Micronesia 2.71 Above Eswatini 2.68 Above Algeria 2.67 Above Syria 2.66 Above Botswana 2.66 Above Lesotho 2.64 Above Turkmenistan 2.63 Above Saint Martin (French part) 2.63 Above Haiti 2.59 Above Mongolia 2.58 Above Djibouti 2.58 Above Jordan 2.57 Above Tokelau 2.57 Above Timor-Leste 2.56 Above Cambodia 2.51 Above Bolivia 2.50 Above Oman 2.48 Above Niue 2.46 Above Honduras 2.45 Above Paraguay 2.39 Above Guyana 2.37 Above Laos 2.36 Above Saudi Arabia 2.29 Above Northern Mariana Islands 2.28 Above Guatemala 2.26 Above Libya 2.25 Above Fiji 2.25 Above American Samoa 2.25 Above Lebanon 2.21 Above Suriname 2.21 Above Faroe Islands 2.20 Above South Africa 2.19 Above Dominican Republic 2.19 Above Morocco 2.18 Above Nicaragua 2.18 Above Western Sahara 2.15 Above Réunion 2.13 Above Bangladesh 2.11 Above Indonesia 2.10 Above Panama 2.09 Below Monaco 2.09 Below Myanmar 2.08 Below Seychelles 2.08 Below United States Virgin Islands 2.07 Below Venezuela 2.06 Below Guadeloupe 2.05 Below Belize 2.01 Below Cook Islands 2.00 Below Martinique 1.97 Below New Caledonia 1.95 Below India 1.94 Below Peru 1.94 Below Nepal 1.94 Below Sri Lanka 1.94 Below Greenland 1.91 Below Philippines 1.88 Below Vietnam 1.88 Below Gibraltar 1.88 Below Mexico 1.87 Below Palau 1.86 Below Tunisia 1.80 Below Montenegro 1.80 Below Ecuador 1.79 Below Georgia 1.79 Below Bahrain 1.78 Below Dem. People's Republic of Korea 1.77 Below El Salvador 1.75 Below St. Vincent & Grenadines 1.75 Below Bulgaria 1.74 Below Moldova 1.72 Below Romania 1.71 Below Armenia 1.71 Below Brunei 1.71 Below Qatar 1.70 Below Barbados 1.70 Below Falkland Islands 1.69 Below Iran 1.67 Below Azerbaijan 1.66 Below New Zealand 1.65 Below France 1.64 Below Australia 1.64 Below St. Helena 1.64 Below United States 1.62 Below Turkey 1.62 Below Colombia 1.62 Below Aruba 1.61 Below Brazil 1.60 Below Ireland 1.60 Below Slovenia 1.58 Below Antigua and Barbuda 1.58 Below Slovakia 1.57 Below Maldives 1.55 Below United Kingdom 1.54 Below Liechtenstein 1.54 Below Malaysia 1.53 Below Kosovo (under UNSC res. 1244) 1.53 Below Isle of Man 1.53 Below Portugal 1.52 Below Denmark 1.52 Below Trinidad and Tobago 1.52 Below Cayman Islands 1.51 Below St. Kitts & Nevis 1.51 Below Argentina 1.50 Below Hungary 1.50 Below Serbia 1.50 Below Kuwait 1.50 Below Bosnia and Herzegovina 1.50 Below Cape Verde 1.50 Below Iceland 1.50 Below French Polynesia 1.48 Below Czechia 1.47 Below Croatia 1.47 Below North Macedonia 1.47 Below Dominica 1.47 Below Russia 1.46 Below Germany 1.46 Below Grenada 1.46 Below Cuba 1.45 Below Bonaire 1.45 Below Montserrat 1.45 Below Netherlands 1.44 Below Sweden 1.44 Below Switzerland 1.44 Below Bhutan 1.44 Below Turks and Caicos Islands 1.44 Below Sint Maarten 1.43 Below Norway 1.42 Below Bermuda 1.41 Below Luxembourg 1.40 Below Wallis & Futuna 1.40 Below Belgium 1.39 Below Uruguay 1.39 Below St. Lucia 1.38 Below Jersey 1.38 Below Cyprus 1.37 Below Estonia 1.37 Below Guernsey 1.37 Below Bahamas 1.36 Below Latvia 1.35 Below Anguilla 1.35 Below Greece 1.34 Below Jamaica 1.34 Below Canada 1.33 Below Austria 1.33 Below Albania 1.33 Below Poland 1.31 Below Costa Rica 1.31 Below Finland 1.30 Below Saint Pierre and Miquelon 1.28 Below Japan 1.23 Below Spain 1.23 Below Belarus 1.22 Below Lithuania 1.22 Below Italy 1.21 Below United Arab Emirates 1.21 Below Mauritius 1.21 Below Thailand 1.19 Below San Marino 1.16 Below Chile 1.13 Below Malta 1.11 Below Andorra 1.10 Below Curacao 1.07 Below British Virgin Islands 1.06 Below China 1.02 Below Ukraine 1.00 Below Singapore 0.96 Below Puerto Rico 0.94 Below Taiwan 0.86 Below St. Barthélemy 0.83 Below South Korea 0.75 Below Hong Kong 0.74 Below Macao 0.69 Below The Great Fertility Divide

The divide is strikingly regional.

Europe is entirely below replacement fertility, joined by most countries across the Americas and East Asia. Meanwhile, most African countries, along with parts of the Middle East, Central Asia, and Southeast Asia, remain above the replacement threshold.

The map also reveals several notable exceptions.

Geographic Pockets That Buck the Trend

While regional patterns are remarkably consistent, several countries stand out as exceptions to their neighbors:

  • Central America: Honduras, Nicaragua, and Guatemala all have fertility rates just over replacement. On both the north and south sides, virtually every other country in the Americas is below replacement.
  • Africa: Tunisia is the sole country in continental Africa with a rate under 2.1.
  • South America: There are two pockets of higher fertility: Peru and Paraguay, and the Guianas (Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana).
  • Middle East: UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain are below 2.1, while surrounding nations in virtually every direction are above replacement.
  • South/Central Asia: A strip of connected countries, from Pakistan all the way up through Kazakhstan to Mongolia, has higher fertility. Bangladesh also stands out as higher fertility.
  • Southeast Asia: Laos and Cambodia stand out as above replacement. Indonesia is the only country with exactly a 2.1 fertility rate, equal to replacement.

Most of these outliers are countries at different stages of the demographic transition than their neighbors.

Their fertility rates remain above or below replacement while surrounding countries have already moved in the other direction, creating pockets that stand apart from the broader regional pattern.

If you enjoyed today’s post, see Japan’s birthrate collapse over the last 60 years in this visualization on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 06:55

10 Wednesday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

The Humbling of the Once Almighty Dollar: Krugman on the greenback’s slipping grip and what dethrones a reserve currency (slowly, then not). Wonky, contrarian, and worth arguing with. (Paul Krugman)

How the Mag 7 became the Lag 7. Year-to-date percentage change The megacaps that powered the market are now dragging it. A tidy marker of the leadership rotation underway. (Axios) see also The Magnificent 493. While some people are deeply concerned about concentration in the S&P 500 due to the Magnificent 7, I have been more focused on what those firms are going to do to the rest of the index: They will make every other company in the S&P 500, or the Russell 2000, or the Wilshire 5000, that much better. (The Big Picture)

Gold heads for worst quarter in more than a decade as retail frenzy fades: Expectations of higher interest rates fuelled by Iran war help end bullion’s record rally. The safe-haven trade unwinds as the small-investor rush cools. Pairs with this week’s other gold pieces for the full round-trip. (Financial Times)

Where Is the Fed Headed?: Reading the monetary tea leaves as the rate-path debate heats up. A clear-eyed guide through a confusing moment for policy. (Stay-At-Home Macro)

The Leveraged Tail Wags the Dog: Samsung & SK Hynix: Recent market action in South Korea isn’t a direct cautionary tail for what can go wrong with leverage, but it’s a good reminder to pay attention. How leveraged single-stock products can start distorting the shares they track — memory-chip edition. The structural risk hiding in a hot corner of the ETF world. (ETF.com)

Will AI make companies outsource more, or less? Maybe both. Noah Smith on how AI might redraw the boundaries of the firm — Coase for the model era. A genuinely interesting question most coverage skips. (Noahpinion)

The Nationwide Backlash Against Cameras Watching Your Car: In places like Troy, N.Y., leaders say AI-enabled cameras boost safety. But some locals call it a ‘dystopian hellscape.’ License-plate readers hit a wall of public resistance. The surveillance-creep story reaches its pushback chapter. In places like Troy, N.Y., leaders say AI-enabled cameras boost safety. But some locals call it a ‘dystopian hellscape.’ (Wall Street Journal)

The Expensive Accessory Every ‘Hot Girl’ Wants: An Old, Loud SUV: The market for vintage Broncos and Land Rovers is booming, fueled by affluent young women willing to spend north of $100,000 for ‘junk on wheels’. Vintage Broncos as the status symbol of the moment. A fun read on how taste, nostalgia, and price tags collide. The market for vintage Broncos and Land Rovers is booming, fueled by affluent young women willing to spend north of $100,000 for ‘junk on wheels’ (Wall Street Journal)

Despite His Best Efforts, Trump May Just Have Won the War for Kyiv: A wry argument that the outcome defied the intentions. Counterintuitive, and worth reading even if you land elsewhere. Putin gambled that the West would lose its nerve, and Ukraine would always be held on a short leash by its friends. That leash has snapped (The Telegraph)

Inside the Onion’s Quest to Turn Infowars Into a Comedic Revenge Story: Satire buys the conspiracy machine and tries to make it funny. An improbable media tale with real schadenfreude. (Washington Post)

Video of the day: We’re Back with Brian Williams featuring Tom Hanks (Netflix)

Be sure to check out our Master’s in Business next week with McKeel Hagerty, CEO/Chairman of Hagerty Specialty Insurance. He transformed a family specialty-insurance agency into an enthusiast-driven platform focused on collectible cars, events, valuation data, and auctions. HGTY is now a public company that insures everything from classic cars to boats, trucks, tractors, and military vehicles for over 2.8M collectors.

What you have is what you used to want, but it doesn’t feel like it

Source: Meaningful Money

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Wednesday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

The US Should Exit The UN

Zero Hedge -

The US Should Exit The UN

Authored by Wendy McElroy via The Brownstone Institute,

The future of the United Nations (UN) is in play, largely because of its refusal to censure Iran—a member nation.

In May, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reprimanded the UN:

“If you’re telling me that the international community and hundreds of countries cannot rally behind that, then I don’t know what the utility of the UN system is.” 

Severing all ties to the UN could require an act of Congress, but the US is moving in this direction. On February 4, 2025, Executive Order 14199 directed the US to withdraw from 31 UN organisations. A great deal hinges on how highly Rubio still prizes America’s permanent seat on the UN Security Council which comes with a veto.

The UN is often viewed as an ineffectual bureaucracy that occasionally does some good. It is nothing so benevolent. Its origins may have been well-meaning, but the current UN has become what it claims to oppose. The US should leave the UN altogether and immediately, especially since its unjust policies are likely to get worse…and soon.

The UN’s Original Mission

The UN Charter (1945) opens,

WE THE PEOPLES OF THE UNITED NATIONS DETERMINED…to reaffirm faith in fundamental human rights, in the dignity and worth of the human person, in the equal rights of men and women…  

The Preamble of its Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948) states, 

Whereas recognition of the inherent dignity and of the equal and inalienable rights of all members of the human family is the foundation of freedom, justice and peace in the world,

Article 2 of the Declaration provides, 

Everyone is entitled to all the rights and freedoms set forth in this Declaration, without distinction of any kind, such as race, colour, sex…

‘All human beings are equal’ is the basis of Western justice, whether the equality is under nature, God, or law. Instead of pursuing equality, however, the UN is now a woke and corrupt actor that creates inequality and division. The UN’s financial malfeasance, the sexual abuse by field personnel, its demonization of the West…are well documented in the 104-page report From Watchdogs to Ideologues: How Politicized UN Rapporteurs Are Subverting Human Rights by the Geneva-based NGO UN Watch

The UN’s demonstrated commitment is to social justice or a wokeness rooted in equity, not equality. Equity seeks the redistribution of wealth and power to those who are considered oppressed from those who are considered oppressors. Equity is the opposite of equality under the law.

Consider its treatment of men who clearly are not viewed as equal to women, as the UN’s mission claims. An obvious example is the prominent presence of the UN Women commission that claims to be “the global champion for gender equality.” The commission identifies its goal as ensuring “every woman and girl lives up to her full potential.” No mention of men or boys. No comparable UN Men agency, although males are included peripherally by recognizing a need to train them to oppose patriarchy. The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) explains, 

UNFPA works with men and boys around the world to advance gender equality and end violence. These programmes are encouraging men and boys to abandon harmful stereotypes, embrace respectful, healthy relationships, and support the human rights of all people, everywhere.

Men face many of the same global problems as women, however, including poverty, lack of education, violence, disease and harmful stereotypes. Men also face unique problems, including male-only conscription, paternity fraud, false rape accusations, and longer sentences for the same crimes. Nevertheless, compared to the UN’s emphasis on women, men are virtually ignored. And deliberately so.

The UN Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW) is considered by many to be the international bill of rights for women. Again, no comparable agency exists for men. The FAQ of one CEDAW branch speaks of substantive justice for women. 

Substantive justice judges fairness by results rather than a process; it favors the equitable distribution of rights, not equal rights. CEDAW states, “The concept of substantive equality arose out of the recognition that formal equality may not be sufficient to ensure that women enjoy the same rights as men. An ostensibly gender-neutral policy, while not excluding women per se, may result in a de facto discrimination against women.” 

Instead, in the name of equality, the UN discriminates against men. It denounces the “poison of patriarchy,” decries the manosphere, and discusses the anti-gender movement. The anti-gender movement is defined as groups with an agenda of harming radical feminist and LGBTQIA+ policies. Even questioning these policies or advocating parallel ones for men seems to be anti-gender. 

Earlier, I stated the UN’s policies are likely to get worse and soon. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres steps down on December 31, 2026. The leading contender as his replacement is the aggressively woke Michelle Bachelet, who launched UN Women and served as its Executive Director from 2010 to 2013. After this, she acted as United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (2018 to 2022).

In between stints at the UN, Bachelet served two terms as President of Chile. A prominent member of the Socialist Party of Chile, she mandated 50% female representation in her Cabinet and instituted political quotas to boost women’s presence in government, as well as establishing a Ministry of Women and Gender Equality; again, no comparable Ministry of Men exists.

And, again, the equality pursued was equity because it applied privileges to women. 

While at the UN, some of the global initiatives championed by Bachelet included: 

  • Safe Cities Free of Violence Against Women and Girls to address sexual violence in public spaces. The word “sexual” is key. Even the U.N. admits men experience more physical violence in public (81%) compared to women (19%). It is not clear the rate at which men experience sexual violence, however, as men report such abuse at a far lower rate than women.

  • Fund for Gender Equality to provide money exclusively to women to empower them at the grassroots level. Males can access other U.N. gender funds but only in order to dismantle gender inequality, not to empower themselves. Men are to act as gender allies and “agents of change.”

  • Increasing Women’s Access to Justice in Post-Conflict Societies to support transitional justice and women’s human rights in conflict and post-conflict zones. 

Everyone has the right to discriminate peacefully on his own time and dime. But the UN is primarily funded by mandatory assessed and voluntary contributions from its member nations; that is, by tax dollars extracted from individuals, half of whom are men and many who are dissenting women, like me. 

The good news: there are rumors of the UN’s financial collapse since some member states—most prominently the US—are withholding their contributions. The US alone owes $2.196 billion to the regular budget and $1.8 billion to separate peacekeeping operations, which amounts to about one-quarter of UN funding. Without it, the UN will be sorely diminished in status.

Good. And if the UN does collapse, then better.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 06:30

Kremlin Confirms Rare Talks To Import Gasoline Amid Drone Strike Mayhem

Zero Hedge -

Kremlin Confirms Rare Talks To Import Gasoline Amid Drone Strike Mayhem

Russia has confirmed its government is currently in negotiations with other countries to purchase gasoline while desperately seeking to stabilize its domestic market after months drone mayhem out of Ukraine.

"Discussions are actively being held," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a press briefing Tuesday, though without specifying which countries. "If agreements can be reached at acceptable price points, then [imports] will move forward," he added.

File image: UBN

The development is surprising given that Russia remains the world's second-largest crude oil exporter and third-largest supplier of refined petroleum products - and yet it is now facing the somewhat humiliating prospect of importing gasoline.

Last week, Reuters dropped a bombshell citing industry insiders who revealed that Moscow has been in backroom talks to import a staggering 50,000 metric tons of AI-92 grade gasoline from neighboring Kazakhstan. India has also been mentioned in reports.

President Putin just over the weekend estimated Russia's total gasoline reserves to be at at 1.7 million metric tons, which would constitute a 4% decline compared to the same period last year. Politico notes further:

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has described imports as one of the government's key tools for stabilizing the market, while Russian lawmakers last week approved tax changes creating subsidies to help finance gasoline purchases from abroad.

Putin had further in a speech and separate interview belatedly acknowledged Sunday that his country is facing a "certain shortage" of fuel following weeks of ramped-up drone warfare coming out of Ukraine, which has chiefly targeted oil refineries and domestic supply facilities, including in the Moscow region.

"As for strikes against critical infrastructure in general, and energy infrastructure in particular, of course, these attacks on our infrastructure facilities create problems," Putin said"That's obvious."

"Right now we're observing a certain shortage, but it's not critical," he added. He also made wide-ranging public remarks at a major summit of the ruling 'United Russia' party.

Some Western pundits have agreed that the situation is not yet critical, and that a fuel squeeze has been a long-running Ukrainian goal of its intensified drone attacks...

A state of emergency for all citizens was also declared in Crimea last week - with fuel only being provided to military and state entities at this point.

Putin further acknowledged in his recent comments that small, slow-moving drones have proven a problem for Russia's anti-air defense systems, which were conventionally designed to intercept large fast projectiles like missiles or warplanes.

This has been big on Russians' minds, as this month they beheld unprecedented scenes of massive smoke plumes overtaking Moscow's skyline, as a key refinery there burned. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 05:45

Police Flee During Riots In The Hague After Morocco Knocks Netherlands Out Of World Cup

Zero Hedge -

Police Flee During Riots In The Hague After Morocco Knocks Netherlands Out Of World Cup

Via Remix News,

After Morocco knocked the Dutch national football team out of the World Cup, rioting broke out this morning in The Hague, with dramatic footage showing Dutch motorcycle police fleeing from Moroccan supporters. Police also deployed water cannons to control the crowd and at least a dozen people were reportedly arrested.

The video of the Dutch police fleeing prompted a sharp reaction from anti-immigration political leader Geert Wilders, who wrote: "Sweep those streets clean and ship the riffraff with their families off to Morocco. This is our country. Get lost!"

Moroccans gathered in the streets, blocking traffic, and chanting with Moroccan flags. Some supporters danced on car roofs. Many of them are Dutch citizens and second- and even third-generation citizens.

Police regrouped and conducted baton charges, deployed water cannons, and made targeted arrests. A spokesperson said that water cannons were deployed after police were targeted with stones and fireworks.

With the Moroccan football team advancing in the World Cup, police across Europe are likely to be nervous about upcoming football games involving the North African team.

In previous years, Moroccan victories at football sporting events have led to mayhem and mass riots. In fact, it was already in 2022 that Wilders was urging mass deportations in reactions to major riots following victories of the Moroccan national team.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 05:00

Heat Mortality Surges In Europe

Zero Hedge -

Heat Mortality Surges In Europe

Heat-related mortality in Europe has surged over the last couple of decades.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz reports, according to the latest available data published by the Lancet Countdown 2025 Report, between 2012 and 2021, 5.5 people per 100,000 population died of heat-related causes per year on the continent.

This is almost double the annual rate observed between 1992 and 2021.

 Heat Mortality Surges in Europe | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

Similarly rapid surges were observed over the same time period in Asia-Pacific as well as in the Americas.

However, heat deaths stayed on a lower level in these regions and reached only an annual 3.4 and 2.1 in 100,000, respectively, during the last decade.

All three continents in question have an aging population, making heatwaves more deadly as it is older people who predominantly succumb to heat-related causes.

But Europe is also less prepared than other continents for a changing climate as its many temperate regions have not built for the heat and have traditionally neither been equipped for it, may that be in terms of air conditioner ownership or knowledge of ways to stay cool.

Hotter (and younger) regions of the globe have not seen the same developments in heat-related mortality, even though they do experience consistently higher levels of it.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, North Africa and the Middle East as well as South and Southeast Asia, brutal heatwaves claim the lives between nine and 14 people per 100,000 every year.

In all three regions, this figure has changed by at most 10 percent since the 1990s.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 04:15

Ukraine's Desperate Propaganda Campaign While Russia Advances Along The Entire Front

Zero Hedge -

Ukraine's Desperate Propaganda Campaign While Russia Advances Along The Entire Front

Authored by Larry Johnson via Sonar21.com

Volodymyr Zelensky and his Western backers have launched a desperate 40-day "campaign of terrors" — which includes a mix of military escalations and a massive information/psyops operation designed to portray Russia as collapsing and Putin as facing an imminent uprising or coup. The goal is to force Russia into a ceasefire. Western audiences are being flooded with social media and regular media articles that paint a dire picture of Russia’s military campaign, while touting Ukraine’s incredible accomplishments. It is all a load of crap, but that is all the West has left in its quiver as Russia’s campaign of attrition continues to pulverize Ukraine.

The Western-led propaganda campaign consists of the following elements:

  • Information Warfare — Heavy push of 24/7 propaganda about Putin’s “imminent downfall,” including staged videos of supposed Russian soldiers announcing a mutiny.
  • Fake Psyops — Coordinated attempts to stoke panic in Russia (e.g., false claims of fuel/gas shortages, which were partly caused by panic buying triggered by the rumors).
  • Symbolic Actions — Staged drone flag-drops (e.g., on the Kinburn Spit near Crimea) meant to symbolize Russian retreat and collapse — quickly debunked and mocked.
  • Broader Objective — Combine these narratives with actual strikes on Russian infrastructure to create the impression of regime instability, pressuring Putin politically.

Now for the reality. Yes, Ukraine has hit some Russian refineries and created some spectacular visuals of billowing smoke and fire. However, this is nothing more than military political theater that is intended to distract from Ukraine's setbacks all along the front. As a side note, Russian oil exports have increased during this same period, putting to bed the narrative that Russia’s oil industry in suffering catastrophic losses.

via Reuters

Here is a summary of Russian activity, starting in the Northern section of the front:

Sumy Direction

In the Sumy direction, the “North” assault groups advanced on 19 sectors, and some units of Ukraine’s 104th Territorial Defense Brigade abandoned their positions in Bachevsk. Russian forces continued active operations along the border, conducting strikes on Ukrainian positions and logistics. They reported repelling multiple Ukrainian attempts to cross into Russian territory and inflicting significant losses on enemy manpower and equipment. Russian soldiers are now only a few kilometers from Sumy itself.

Kharkiv Direction

Russian troops advanced in several sectors north and northeast of Kharkiv. The MOD reported the liberation of additional border settlements and improvement of tactical positions. Russian Geran drones conduct a series of high-precision strikes on gas infrastructure in Kharkiv region overnight. A gas distribution station near Panyutino was struck — disabling gas storage tanks, gas pumping plants, and a gas treatment facility. The Skvortsovskaya gas treatment system near Kosogorovka was also hit.​​ Ukrainian counterattacks were repelled, with Russian artillery and aviation playing a key role in degrading enemy capabilities.

Donetsk Direction (Primary Focus)

Donetsk remains the main direction of Russian offensive operations. Russian troops are steadily advancing on the Pokrovsk axis, with Russian forces capturing multiple settlements and pushing toward key logistical nodes. The most notable achievement is in Konstantinovka, where Russian units have taken control of most of the city and disrupted Ukrainian supply lines. With both Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka gone, Russia controls the two southern and eastern approaches that previously buffered the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk agglomeration. The H-32 Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and the T-0504 Bakhmut-Pokrovsk highway — both of which Russian forces had been fighting to seize specifically to link these two axes — now forms a contiguous corridor under Russian control, allowing logistics and force concentration to flow directly toward Druzhkivka and Kramatorsk without contesting two separate urban battles.The Russians also are advancing around Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, including gains in urban fighting and elevated positions.

Overall, the Russian MOD described consistent liberation of territory, high daily Ukrainian losses, and effective use of glide bombs, drones, and artillery to support ground advances.

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (Dnipro region)

In the Dnipropetrovsk direction, the 36th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade captured Bogodarivka, the third settlement in three days since crossing the Dnieper River. Russian forces continue conducting regular long-range strikes (missiles and drones) on military-industrial targets, energy infrastructure, and logistical hubs in the oblast. Key targets included defense factories, repair facilities, and rail nodes supporting the Ukrainian front.

Zaporizhzhia Direction

In the Zaporozhye area, Russian forces have blocked a Ukrainian bridgehead in Aleksandrovka and have reached the southern outskirts of Pokrovskoye. After Russian forces took control of Novy Donbass, they advanced towards Shevchenko and Svetloye, isolating Ukrainian forward positions with drones. Russian forces maintain pressure through artillery, drone strikes, and localized assaults, destroying Ukrainian strongholds and equipment while holding defensive lines.

Kherson Direction

Operations remained largely positional along the Dnipro River. The Russian MOD highlighted successful strikes on Ukrainian crossings, logistics, and manpower concentrations on the right bank. Russian units conducted raids and maintained control over left-bank positions.

In other words, the Russian summer offensive is underway and Ukraine, despite its propaganda offensive, is retreating to the west.

*  *  *

Disclaimer: Contributor posts published on Zero Hedge do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of Zero Hedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 07/01/2026 - 03:30

Congress Confronts MKULTRA: Testimony Warns Of Ongoing CIA Mind Control Capabilities

Zero Hedge -

Congress Confronts MKULTRA: Testimony Warns Of Ongoing CIA Mind Control Capabilities

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity News,

The deep state's favorite tools of control just got dragged back into the light. Today, the House Oversight Committee's Task Force on the Declassification of Federal Secrets held the first congressional hearing on the CIA's MKULTRA program since 1977.

What could have been a dusty historical review turned into a direct warning that the same machinery of mind control, memory manipulation, and behavioral experimentation may never have shut down - and could now run on far more powerful modern engines.

Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and her colleagues are doing what previous Congresses largely refused to do: forcing sunlight on one of the intelligence community's darkest chapters.

The testimony made one thing unmistakable. The CIA lied to lawmakers decades ago about the program's success. Advances in neuroscience, cyber tools, and artificial intelligence have handed covert operators capabilities Sidney Gottlieb could only dream of. And American citizens remain potential targets.

MKULTRA ran from the early 1950s into the 1970s. The CIA conducted roughly 149 subprojects involving LSD, hypnosis, electroshock, sensory deprivation, and psychological torture on unwitting Americans - prisoners, mental patients, soldiers, and ordinary citizens.

Most records were deliberately destroyed in 1973. When the program finally surfaced through the Church Committee and Rockefeller Commission in 1975, the agency downplayed its scope and results.

The public was told it was a failure. New testimony says that was never true.

Investigative journalist Tom O'Neill, author of Chaos, told the committee the agency actively misled Congress in 1977. He submitted documents showing the CIA's own earlier claims about LSD experiments contradicted what it later told lawmakers. O'Neill stated flatly: "I believe the agency misled Congress in 1977 when it characterized MK-Ultra as a failure."

He connected dots to figures like psychiatrist Louis Jolyon West and his ties to Charles Manson and Jack Ruby, underscoring how deeply the program reached into real-world events. The message was clear: the full story was buried on purpose.

One of the most disturbing revelations came from historical documents referenced during the hearing. A participant in the original program documented the ability to replace true memories with false ones without the subject's knowledge.

The exact description: "It's feasible to take the memory of a definite event in the life of an individual, and through hypnotic suggestion, bring about the subsequent conscious recall to the effect that this event never actually took place. But that a different fictional event actually did occur."

If the U.S. government could do this in the 1950s, the question hanging over the room was obvious. What can they do now with AI, brain-computer interfaces, and directed energy tools?

Author and journalist Stephen Kinzer, who has extensively studied the program and its leader Sidney Gottlieb, warned that Gottlieb effectively held "a license to kill" issued by the U.S. government. Kinzer described how the CIA used "cut-outs" - universities and institutions - to conduct research while keeping its own involvement hidden.

He then delivered the core warning for today: "There have been enormous advances in cyber technology, neuroscience, and artificial intelligence. Covert agencies may have access to tools for mind control that Sidney Gottlieb could not have imagined."

O'Neill agreed. The massive investment in time, money, and research made it unlikely the capabilities were simply abandoned. The technology they built was too valuable.

Public suspicion about whether MKULTRA-style techniques ever truly ended is not abstract. In 2024, widespread speculation erupted around the Trump assassination attempt and whether the shooter could have been influenced or programmed through evolved versions of these programs.

The CIA issued a flat denial, calling the claims "utterly false, absurd, and damaging" and insisting MKULTRA ended decades ago.

That denial landed exactly as past CIA statements have landed - with heavy skepticism from those who remember the record destruction, the lies to Congress, and the pattern of "nothing to see here" followed by later revelations.

Rep. Luna has been clear: Americans have been misdirected repeatedly and deserve transparency and accountability from the CIA. Additional MKULTRA documents are being declassified. The task force is pushing for real answers, not another round of limited hangouts.

Critics on both sides have already begun dismissing the effort. Some call it performative. Others worry it will be used as a distraction. The record shows why skepticism exists. Previous investigations produced headlines, limited document releases, and then business as usual inside the intelligence community.

This time the stakes feel different. The technology has advanced. The surveillance state has grown. The same agencies that once ran MKULTRA still operate with massive secrecy and minimal real oversight.

The hearing was never just about history. It is about whether the American people will finally demand an end to secret programs that treat citizens as expendable test subjects or potential assets.

Memory manipulation, behavioral modification, and technological mind control are not science fiction. They were government policy for decades.

The question is no longer whether the CIA once crossed every ethical and constitutional line. The question is whether those lines were ever truly redrawn - or simply moved into newer, harder-to-detect territory.

Rep. Luna and the task force have opened the door. The only acceptable outcome is full declassification, genuine accountability, and a public reckoning that makes clear no agency of the United States government has the right to experiment on its own people in secret.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 22:35

AI Hallucinations Are Exploding In U.S. Courts, New Study Finds

Zero Hedge -

AI Hallucinations Are Exploding In U.S. Courts, New Study Finds

A new analysis from Laine AI suggests that AI-related errors in U.S. court filings are no longer isolated incidents but a rapidly expanding trend. Drawing on hundreds of confirmed cases, the study finds that courts are seeing a growing number of filings containing fabricated citations, inaccurate legal authorities, and other AI-generated mistakes as lawyers and self-represented litigants increasingly incorporate generative AI into their work.

The increase has been dramatic. According to the report, documented AI-related filing errors climbed from just 25 cases in early 2025 to 249 by the fourth quarter of that year, with the pace continuing into 2026. First-quarter 2026 data nearly matched the entire final quarter of 2025 despite covering only part of the year, underscoring how quickly the problem is accelerating.

Geographically, a relatively small number of states account for a disproportionate share of the incidents. California leads the nation with 97 recorded cases, followed by New York, Texas, Florida, and Illinois. Together, those five states represent roughly 40% of all documented AI-related legal filing errors, suggesting that jurisdictions with higher AI adoption are also experiencing more frequent courtroom mistakes.

The study also identifies several fast-growing hotspots. Florida experienced one of the sharpest increases, jumping from just one recorded incident in 2024 to 28 during 2025. Meanwhile, states including Washington, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Nevada, Indiana, Oregon, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Mississippi, and Illinois all began reporting meaningful numbers of AI-related filing errors after previously recording none, indicating that the issue is spreading well beyond a handful of early adopters.

Courts have responded with a wide range of sanctions. California has imposed more than $256,000 in monetary penalties tied to AI-related filing errors, accounting for roughly one-third of all fines identified in the study. However, the likelihood of receiving severe sanctions varies considerably by jurisdiction. Louisiana, Wyoming, New Mexico, and Georgia imposed serious penalties in a much larger percentage of cases than states with higher overall incident counts, highlighting significant differences in judicial approaches.

Perhaps the study's most notable finding is that most AI-related filing mistakes do not originate with attorneys. More than 60% of the documented incidents involved pro se litigants representing themselves, while lawyers accounted for roughly 37% of the cases. The authors suggest that individuals without formal legal training may be relying more heavily on AI tools without adequate review, increasing the likelihood of errors reaching the courtroom.

When AI tools were identified, ChatGPT was the most frequently named platform, though the overwhelming majority of filings either failed to specify which AI system had been used or only implied AI assistance. ChatGPT appeared in 48 documented cases, while tools such as Microsoft Copilot, Claude, Google Gemini, Perplexity, Lexis AI, and Westlaw's AI products were mentioned only occasionally. Because nearly 90% of filings did not clearly identify the software involved, the report notes that assigning responsibility to any particular platform remains difficult.

The most common errors involved outright fabrication. More than half of all recorded AI-related mistakes consisted of nonexistent cases, citations, or legal authorities presented as genuine. Misrepresenting actual legal precedent accounted for another quarter of incidents, while fabricated quotations from real cases represented roughly one-fifth. California, New York, and Texas consistently ranked among the states with the highest numbers across each category.

The report also found that over 80% of AI-related hallucinations occurred in case-law citations rather than statutes, regulations, or supporting exhibits. Because legal arguments often depend on accurately citing precedent, fabricated or inaccurate case law can undermine the credibility of an entire filing and expose litigants to sanctions. The authors conclude that AI can remain a valuable legal research tool, but only if every citation, quotation, and legal authority is independently verified before being submitted to a court.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 22:10

RFK Jr. Announces He's Ending Emergency Liability Protection For COVID-19 Vaccine Makers

Zero Hedge -

RFK Jr. Announces He's Ending Emergency Liability Protection For COVID-19 Vaccine Makers

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is ending emergency declarations for COVID-19 vaccines, treatments, and medical devices, after determining that the circumstances that resulted in the declarations are no longer in place.

The health secretary in office in early 2020 issued emergency declarations, providing liability protections for companies that made products for COVID-19 and enabling regulators to issue emergency authorizations, which have a lower evidentiary threshold than regular approval.

The declarations were extended multiple times, most recently in 2024 by then-Health Secretary Xavier Becerra through the end of 2029.

They provided broad immunity to manufacturers of the products, as well as people who administered them to others.

Becerra said in the latest extension that while the COVID-19 public health emergency expired in May 2023, COVID-19 “continues to present a credible risk of a future public health emergency” and that keeping the protections in place was necessary to keep the United States prepared for that threat.

Kennedy disagreed, writing in a notice of termination that “circumstances no longer exist to justify emergency use of drugs and biological products during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

He cited how regulators in 2025 revoked emergency authorization for COVID-19 vaccines, transitioning to typical approval for all the shots across all available ages.

“Americans deserve a regulatory system that is transparent, accountable, and rooted in the rule of law,” Kennedy said in a statement.

“By ending these COVID-19 emergency use authorization declarations, we’re reinforcing public confidence that emergency authorities are temporary and targeted.”

To terminate emergency declarations, a health secretary has to provide advance notice that would give a reasonable amount of time to companies to withdraw the products that have been generated under the declarations.

The Food and Drug Administration determined that 12 months is a sufficient period of time, according to health officials. The declarations for vaccines and drugs will thus terminate effective June 29, 2027.

The declarations for medical devices such as COVID-19 tests will only stay in place for 180 days, or until Dec. 26, 2026.

The FDA has been working with manufacturers of all products still under emergency authorization about seeking approval for continued use, and it is reasonable to conclude that manufacturers will be able to generate data that would support fresh filings to regulators, the notice stated.

Officials plan to notify Congress of the development, the Department of Health and Human Services said.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 21:45

US Lifts Restrictions On Anthropic's Fable, Mythos AI Models

Zero Hedge -

US Lifts Restrictions On Anthropic's Fable, Mythos AI Models

The US government removed foreign access restrictions on Anthropic’s Fable and Mythos AI models, clearing it for wider distribution after the AI company resolved the Trump administration’s safety controls, less than ‌three weeks after the company was ordered to suspend access to its most advanced AI models over national security risks.

On June 12, the Commerce Department imposed an export control rule via a private letter requiring the company to obtain US permission before allowing any foreign national, regardless of location, to access those two models and before it could be sent to any destination worldwide. In response, the AI company disabled its powerful Mythos 5 AI model and Fable 5, a similar model intended for wider release.

Then after several days of discussions between Anthropic and the Trump admin, late on Tuesday, Anthropic said in a post on X that it had received notice that Commerce was lifting the curbs on access to both models. Some of the restrictions on Mythos had been eased on June 26.

“We’re grateful to our users for their patience, and to everyone who worked with us on redeploying the models,” the company said in its post.
The key to reversing the export controls was assuaging White House officials’ concerns about limiting the ability of bad actors to circumvent the models’ guardrails.

Anthropic said it would restore access to users beginning Wednesday.

In a letter to Anthropic viewed by Bloomberg, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Anthropic had pledged to “proactively deter and address security risks associated with the models.” On Tuesday evening, Lutnick tweeted that "over the past two weeks, we have worked closely with Anthropic to analyze and approve Fable 5 to ensure alignment across the US Government and strengthen America’s leadership in AI."

The department’s export control directive marked the most significant intervention by the US government to date into an AI venture’s operations and sparked legal questions over whether export controls can be used to regulate AI model access. The consequences may still have last impact, as they spotlighted governance risks for Anthropic just as the company is charting its initial public offering.

As AI influencer Alex Finn pointed out, the crackdown on both Chinese models and frontier US models will likely prompt more consumers to roll out their own local models.

As Bloomberg notes, the move to relax the restrictions also relieves tension that was weighing on Anthropic’s already-tenuous relationship with the Trump administration. The company is suing the Pentagon after Secretary Pete Hegseth moved in March to designate it a supply-chain risk following a messy and unsuccessful contract renegotiation process.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 21:26

Whistleblower Documents Highlight Serious Safety Concerns For NIH Virus Lab In Montana

Zero Hedge -

Whistleblower Documents Highlight Serious Safety Concerns For NIH Virus Lab In Montana

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle,

Internal documents from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) spotlight growing public alarm about safety and the labs that perform dangerous virus studies. Last month, I broke a story that exposed NIH virologist Vincent Munster, who faced an FBI investigation after he was caught bringing back deadly viruses from Africa to his NIH lab in Montana, Rocky Mountain Laboratories. New documents show Rocky Mountain Laboratories (RML) continues to be plagued with safety problems, and NIH executives at the Montana site have yet to fix holes in their safety plan that had been revealed back in November when a monkey bit a worker.

I was given these new NIH documents by a whistleblower who said my May exclusive on Vincent Munster "blew up inside the NIH."

"They don't have a real protocol if you're exposed to something at BSL-4," the whistleblower told me about the safety practices at RML.

Biosafety Level 4 (BSL-4) is the highest safety protocol in virus research. Its precautions are used when studying the world's most lethal pathogens - such as Ebola and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. The NIH has been sent copies of the whistleblower documents for comment, and I will update you with any response.

"They want to do the work at level 4 no matter the cost," said the whistleblower. "Because they think it's the most important work on the planet - that must be done, no matter what it takes."

Earlier this month the Justice Department indicted Munster and one of his lab workers, charging both researchers with two felonies. Munster's actions exposed a distressing pattern of cowboy conduct by virologists working on deadly viruses. According to the FBI's criminal complaint Munster was caught at the airport smuggling in viruses. When law enforcement asked him if he had the required paperwork, he replied that he did.

"I do this all the time," Munster told federal law officials in January. In fact, Munster did not have the required paperwork and has been charged with lying to law enforcement. And Munster's statement - "I do this all the time" - raises questions of whether smuggling viruses is in fact something he does all the time.

Alarming practices at RML

Munster works at the NIH's RML in Hamilton, Montana, where he studies maximum containment pathogens, such as Ebola. RML is one of over a dozen labs in the United States that have a BSL-4 facility. The main virology lab has been operated for many decades by Heinz Feldmann, a leading expert on viruses studied under BSL-4 conditions.

Yet emails released by Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, raise concerns that practices at RML under Feldmann have long been sloppy. An email chain dating to 2011 finds several virologists - Munster, Feldmann and researchers with EcoHealth Alliance - discussing the logistics of shipping virus samples from Africa to the States. In the final email, EcoHealth Alliance's Jon Epstein suggests to Feldman and Munster that Munster can hand carry virus samples on a plane after they are put in a viral transport and recovery (VTR) buffer, which keeps them alive.

"I think you can take up to 2kg with you on commercial flights," emailed EcoHealth Alliance's Jon Epstein.

In the final week of the Biden Administration, EcoHealth Alliance was debarred from participating in federal programs due to their problematic safety practices. However, the emails released by Senator Paul do not show if these virologists followed through and did in fact transport live viruses on a commercial flight back in 2011.

One email provided by the NIH whistleblower shows that Heinz Feldmann was transferred in August 2025 to run the NIH's Integrated Research Facility (IRF) in Maryland. A few months prior to transferring Feldmann, the NIH discovered safety violations at the IRF, which Feldmann was apparently sent in to clean up. This included a frightening instance - apparently a lover's spat - in which a contractor cut holes in an employee's biocontainment suit designed to protect against infection from viruses such as Ebola.

NIH leadership notified the FBI, which launched an investigation.

Since the NIH put Feldmann in charge of the IRF in Maryland last year to clean up problems at that research site, he has been splitting his schedule between Maryland and Montana. During that time, however, the Montana RML has been found to be plagued with its own safety snafus.

Whistleblower documents

Sometime in November 2025, an RML researcher was exposed to Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever "through an accidental breach of personal protective equipment." The safety incident was never made public, however, until a Montana newspaper reported on it months later in February 2026. "The individual remained well and showed no evidence of being infected," an NIH spokesperson told the paper in February. "They have been back at work for some time."

The NIH updated the Montana reporter with more information in May, detailing that the exposure incident was a monkey bite. The NIH also sent the reporter a statement that makes it appear the monkey bite accident was handled in an efficient, by-the-book process, without any hitches, or delays.

Furthermore, details about Providence Hospital in Spokane seem souped-up with government acronyms and biomedical jargon to make the monkey bite patient's treatment appear extra professional and super sciencey.

Here's that NIH statement reported in the Montana paper:

"A November 13, 2025 workplace exposure to Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever Virus (CCHFV) occurred in the Biosafety Level 4 facility at NIH's Rocky Mountain Laboratories. The worker is highly experienced, wore all required protective gear, and followed all established procedures at the time of the exposure. The employee was immediately decontaminated, isolated and evaluated by experienced clinical experts in coordination with highly trained safety professionals.

"The patient was transferred to the nearest Regional Emerging Special Pathogen Treatment Center (RESPTC) located at Providence Sacred Heart Medical Center & Children's Hospital in Spokane, Washington.

"Providence is one of 13 Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR)-supported Level 1 RESPTCs, part of the tiered National Special Pathogen System (NSPS) designed to protect patients, communities and the healthcare workforce.

"Established procedures for transport, patient care, waste handling, testing and safety were followed by all involved, from lab staff and agency safety and health support to hospital care team and medical specialists.

"At no time was there any evidence of disease transmission or infection, nor was there ever any risk to staff, caregivers, or the public."

However, NIH claims in May to the Montana newspaper about the "established procedures" in caring for the monkey bite patient are contradicted by documents provided by the whistleblower.

One document shows that Providence hospital in Spokane, which the NIH lauded in that May statement to the Montana reporter and a week later to reporters with Politico, was never part of the NIH's plan for patient treatment, which seems to have been managed through improvisation. And notes from a June NIH meeting show the monkey bite patient's transport - which involved approval from the governors of Montana, Idaho, and Washington - more closely resembled the 1987 road trip comedy film, "Planes, Trains, and Automobiles" than established procedures for a health emergency.

According to NIH documents, the RML staff evaluated and treated the employee on-site after the monkey bite, before sending the patient to St. Patrick's hospital, about an hour away in Missoula. However, that hospital had staffing problems and could only take the NIH patient for three days. NIH then transferred their employee to Providence hospital in Spokane, Washington. But transportation from Montana to Washington passes through the state of Idaho.

"Had to get the approval of all 3 governors for transport through states via Spokane hospital ambulance."

When the hospital in Spokane wanted to discharge the patient, who was found to not be sick, NIH disagreed with the hospital and felt the person needed more days of isolation. "What do you do if they become symptomatic, etc."

NIH then transferred their employee back to RML in Montana, to finish quarantine. "Had to coordinate transport again...with backup RML personnel and emergency personnel. Required intricate communication and used GPS tracking on cell phones for security/arrival time/etc."

However, isolating their employee at RML required modifyng a room to allow the patient to stay those three days "with bedding, towels, food, entertainment" because the room is evidently not actually designed for quarantine.

"It's better to call this a triage room, not a quarantine room," said the whistleblower. "People are not supposed to stay there for days. It's a triage room."

RML officials also discovered complications in testing the patient daily to see if they had been infected with Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever and were producing viruses. The only lab apparently capable of testing blood samples for the virus is the CDC in Atlanta. This meant catching the only flight out of nearby Missoula to ensure the patient sample made it each day to the CDC.

"Only one FedEX plane leaves Missoula each day so that restricted testing at CDC."

The NIH's cheerful, jargon-filled statement to the Montana paper about the critical importance of the Providence hospital in Spokane is also contradicted by the RML's plan that was in place to handle exposures to dangerous pathogens.

That plan makes no apparent mention of the Providence hospital in Spokane which the NIH told the Montana paper last May "is one of 13 Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR)-supported Level 1 RESPTCs, part of the tiered National Special Pathogen System (NSPS) designed to protect patients, communities and the healthcare workforce."

But the only hospital that seems to be mentioned in RML's plan, in place at the time of the November monkey bite incident, is St. Patrick's in Missoula.

And notes from a June NIH meeting make clear that problems remain at RML, seven months after the November monkey bite incident. The June notes show that any potentially infected worker is now first transported to St. Patrick's in Missoula "then must figure out where to go from there."

And while the RML had to convert their triage room last year to allow a three-day quarantine for the monkey bite patient, RML is still trying to figure out how to "modify or build new isolation suite at RML for long term isolation."

During the November monkey bite accident, the RML realized they couldn't get daily testing done because there is only one FedEx flight each day from Missoula to the CDC in Atlanta. But to this day they have not figured out another lab that can provide these daily tests to see if an exposed worker has started to produce viruses.

"Also need testing contract for potential RML exposures."

Other RML problems include how the research facility handles viruses after they arrive, such as the viruses that Munster was caught smuggling into the U.S. According to RML's current SOP, field samples received at RML will be immediately taken to the restricted access Field Sample room (2B155B). "This lab is dedicated to handling field samples and all employees with access to this lab must be enrolled in the RML Biosafety Program," reads the SOP.

Once the collected viruses enter the Field Sample room, each sample is then divided into smaller fractions called "aliquots". An aliquot from each sample is then sent to the Maximum Containment Lab to see if the sample might contain dangerous viruses that should only be handled at BSL-4. Other aliquots from each sample are then inactivated to kill any potentially live viruses, so they can be further analyzed.

However, the whistleblower says this protocol has a gaping hole: the Field Sample room is not secure. "There is no lock on the door, no prox access card," said the whistleblower. "It's shared space, and the freezers in there also don't have locks."

Finally, an email from Marshall Bloom, a senior RML researcher, discusses a public meeting in June he attended in Hamilton, where he was asked by local officials and members of the public about recent accidents at the RML and the Vincent Munster matter.

RML employees first learned that Munster and his lab researcher had done something wrong earlier this year, said the whistleblower, when NIH police showed up at RML and escorted them both off the RML campus, taking away all their access privileges. They were also required to surrender any government devices.

However, federal employees are prohibited from speaking about ongoing federal investigations, and even the Justice Department generally will not confirm the very existence of an investigation before charges are filed. It was only when my story broke in May that RML researchers learned Munster was being investigated by the FBI after he was caught trying to smuggle in viruses. More details did not become public until June 2, when the Justice Department announced that both Munster and his lab researcher were being charged with felonies.

Yet Marshall told the audience in Hamilton that day that this issue "was now well publicized and working its way through the criminal justice system." He added, "We demurred providing additional information and repeatedly stressed the presumption of innocence."

"I don't know why the presumption of innocence," the whistleblower said. "Don't weigh in; don't say anything. First, we weren't really told anything about what happened with Munster when it all started, but he set it up like scientists are now trying to circle the wagons."

Marshall added that, in the public discussion, the audience brought up "biological weapons, Kris Newby's book Bitten and some more general questions about safety."

"There's lots of good science at RML," said the whistleblower. "But this is a shocking example where they have found problems, and they just kept going on, without any real plan. Hoping no one would get infected. It's just ridiculous."

The person added one final note: "A lot of people at RML are really frustrated."

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 19:15

Today's Colorado Primaries Could Impact The Midterm Elections Nationwide

Zero Hedge -

Today's Colorado Primaries Could Impact The Midterm Elections Nationwide

Colorado Democrats vote Tuesday in primaries that could hand Republicans their most useful campaign weapon of the 2026 midterms: proof that the socialist wave crashing through New York City was never just a New York problem.

An election worker sorts ballots for the US midterm election in Grand Junction, Colorado, on November 8, 2022. [File: Jason Connolly/AFP]

Three weeks ago, the Democratic Socialists of America notched a trio of wins in New York City that sent establishment Democrats into a panic. Darializa Avila Chevalier knocked off Rep. Adriano Espaillat, chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, in the 13th District on a platform that included shutting down prisons, eliminating ICE, erasing the southern border, and opposing the deportation of illegal immigrants regardless of criminal record. Claire Valdez took the 7th District running on citizenship and voting rights for people who entered the country illegally, taxpayer-funded transgender medical treatment, and the elimination of private health insurance. Brad Lander won in the 10th District by nearly 30 points, defeating Rep. Dan Goldman, one of the most prominent anti-Trump voices in the caucus and the man who led the push to impeach the president.

Colorado now gets to answer the question everyone in Washington has been asking since New York's results came in: was that a fluke confined to one deep-blue city, or the opening act of something bigger? Sen. Michael Bennet and Rep. Diana DeGette, two of the biggest names in Colorado Democratic politics, both face primary challenges that party insiders are taking far more seriously than they expected to a month ago.

CNN's Harry Enten warned Democrats about the implications last week after the New York primaries. "What is true in New York City in a Democratic primary ain't necessarily true nationwide with the general electorate," Enten said last week. The Democratic Socialists of America have a net favorable rating of +17 among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, according to Enten's data, but are 27 points underwater with the electorate as a whole. That 44-point canyon between the party's base and everyone else is precisely the gap Republicans intend to exploit. "Socialism has become increasingly popular among Democrats, but it is a much tougher sell in the rest of the electorate," Enten said. Favorable views of socialism among Democrats climbed from 50% in 2010 to 66% today. Among everyone else, the number has barely moved, sitting at 30% now versus 29% sixteen years ago.

Bennet abandoned his Senate seat to run for governor and now finds himself locked in a tighter-than-expected race against Attorney General Phil Weiser. A poll from the left-leaning firm PPP also showed Bennet trailing Weiser outside the margin of error, and two Democratic strategists familiar with the campaign said internal numbers track the same direction. "There may be only a slight Bennet advantage at this point," said a Democratic strategist close to the race, granted anonymity to speak candidly, who described private polling as "all over the place." Weiser, despite having eight years' experience running the attorney general's office, has somehow managed to cast himself as the outsider, branding Bennet a creature of Washington. Strategists say the message is sticking with primary voters who want nothing to do with anyone who smells like the establishment this cycle.

DeGette's situation looks worse. After serving three decades in the House, she faces democratic socialist Melat Kiros. Internal polling has tightened to within the margin of error, and donors who dismissed the threat for weeks are suddenly paying attention. "It's not looking great," said one Colorado Democratic strategist familiar with DeGette's numbers. "It's very tough when you're fighting against a wave." DeGette rolled out a last-minute endorsement video from Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), former chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. This move backfired with some progressives, given that Kiros already has Sen. Bernie Sanders in her corner.

Sen. John Hickenlooper is fending off his own challenge from state Sen. Julie Gonzales, with a private survey showing a dead heat in Denver even as a late-May public poll had Hickenlooper ahead 41% to 34% amid heavy undecideds. National DSA chapters have run phone banks for Kiros nearly daily, and Denver organizers expect close to 100,000 doors knocked by the time polls close.

"There's a lot of anti-establishment momentum because voters are so angry," Doug Friednash, a longtime Colorado Democratic strategist, said. "They want to take it out on someone. They want fighters." Denver isn't New York, and Democrats note that the city's DSA infrastructure remains smaller, and that DeGette's name recognition runs deeper than Espaillat's ever did. But Denver has also grown younger and more restless, and that combination worries establishment Democrats.

Republicans are watching with open delight. "That's what the left is putting out. It's these radical leftists that are being elected. They're being inspired by Mamdani, AOC, Bernie Sanders," RNC Chairman Joe Gruters told Newsmax, adding that the trend hands the GOP favorable matchups in competitive districts nationwide. "The people are going to reject this at the polls," Gruters said, betting that a party drifting this far left has wandered clean off the map most American voters still occupy.

If Colorado follows New York's lead, Democrats won't just be arguing about ideology inside their own party, they'll be handing Republicans a ready-made message for the 2026 midterms that the Democratic Party as a whole has become too radical for mainstream America.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 18:50

The Next Oil Rally Could Be Driven By Stockpile Refilling

Zero Hedge -

The Next Oil Rally Could Be Driven By Stockpile Refilling

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

  • The Middle East conflict has disrupted more than 1 billion barrels of oil supply, but China's massive strategic crude stockpile helped offset the shock by sharply reducing imports, preventing oil prices from surging even higher.

  • Countries are now racing to build or replenish strategic petroleum reserves, with the IEA planning to refill the 400 million barrels it released during the crisis and major importers like India looking to expand their emergency stockpiles.

  • This wave of reserve rebuilding could create a major new source of oil demand, supporting crude prices once the Middle East crisis fully subsides as governments prioritize energy security alongside the energy transition.

The war in the Middle East has cost the world over a billion barrels in cumulative supply losses. Yet luckily, China had built a reserve of about the same size before the closure of Hormuz, so it stopped buying so much oil, arresting the inevitable price jump. Now, everyone wants to build an oil reserve—or needs to replenish the ones they already have.

Back in March, soon after the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran began, prompting the latter to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, the International Energy Agency said it would release 400 million barrels of crude from its joint emergency reserve. The reserve was set up, along with the IEA, as a response to the Arab oil embargo and other supply disruptions from the 70s, when the world was even more dependent on Middle Eastern crude than it is today.

The release announced in March worried oil market observers because it was set to be the largest ever made, much larger than what the IEA member states released in 2022 when Western sanctions on Russia following its incursion into Ukraine prompted a price spike. Back then, the IEA only released 182 million barrels. Now, member states stood ready to release 400 million barrels, plus millions of barrels from the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve.

All these millions of barrels would need to be replenished once the crisis is over, or even before it is over if it drags on. Analysts have been warning about it and about the potential of this replenishment drive to lift international prices, which have remained stubbornly depressed, even amid fresh reports of new strikes between Iran and the United States. Yet on top of the replenishment drive, there are nations seeking to build their own strategic reserves to insulate themselves from future shocks.

Reuters noted in a recent report that nations that had limited oil reserves at home had felt the pain from the closure of Hormuz more sharply than those with ample reserves. Such a conclusion is, of course, a no-brainer, but it is indicative of something besides the obvious, namely, that crude oil remains the ultimate fuel of the global economy, regardless of the acceleration of transition efforts in the past decade.

Multiple reports following the outbreak of war in the Middle East said it would prompt energy importers to switch to things like wind and solar in order to reduce their dependence on those imports of crude from the Middle East. Indeed, many governments across Asia—the most vulnerable region—did double and triple down on wind and solar, but at the same time signaled they are aware these cannot replace hydrocarbons to any meaningful degree. So they also started thinking about building an oil reserve. China was the inspiration.

There seems to be a pretty comprehensive agreement among energy analysts that China played an instrumental role in keeping the world from drowning in three-digit oil prices. It did this thanks to its tendency to plan well ahead and prepare for adverse events, such as a war in the Middle East. China had been buying oil on the cheap from Iran, Russia, and Venezuela for years, building the most massive oil reserve in the world. Funnily enough, reports about the gap between Chinese crude imports and refinery run rates served to keep a lid on prices, keeping oil cheaper for longer, helping China build its reserve. And when the war came, China slashed imports and dug into its oil inventories.

Following China’s example may be quite a challenge, though it seems simple on the face of it. The challenge, of course, is financial. India, for instance, wants to boost its own oil reserve, which is currently unacceptably low, covering just eight days of imports. The government has already instructed state major ONGC to add 13 million barrels to its crude reserve, but those 13 million barrels will not go a long way in case of shortages—and buying enough oil to help in case of shortages would cost tens of billions of dollars. India, by the way, is not the only large oil importer thinking of boosting its oil reserves. And China will need to refill its reserve, as will IEA members.

What this means is that demand for crude oil is about to rise the moment there is an indication that the crisis in the Middle East is over, for real this time. Even the International Energy Agency—of peak oil demand fame—said in its latest monthly oil report that it expected global oil demand to rebound to 2 million barrels daily in 2027, after dipping by 1.1 million barrels daily this year due to the crisis and its effect on supply and prices. In good news for buyers, the news of stronger demand would probably push oil prices lower.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 18:25

Largest US Power Grid Declares Emergency To Prevent Blackouts

Zero Hedge -

Largest US Power Grid Declares Emergency To Prevent Blackouts

A mega heat dome is set to descend on the eastern half of the U.S., prompting the Energy Department to issue two emergency orders to reduce the risk of rolling blackouts in the Mid-Atlantic area as PJM Interconnection braces for record power demand.

DOE's first order directs the PJM region, which serves 67 million people across 13 states, "to dispatch specified units and to order their operation as needed to maintain reliability."

The second order states that PJM, working with transmission owners and electric distribution companies, must use backup generation as a last resort before or during a Level 3 energy emergency.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said, "Maintaining affordable, reliable, and secure power in the PJM service territory is non-negotiable."

Bloomberg's forecast for maximum temperatures across the Washington, D.C., metro area could average in the low triple digits through Saturday.

The hot temperatures, beginning tomorrow, will increase cooling demand and boost power demand on the PJM grid, potentially straining the system during peak late-afternoon hours. Concerns about grid reliability have risen as data center buildouts are blamed for soaring power bills - yet aging grids and climate policie should also be blamed. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 18:00

Deflation Is Not The Villain - The Overleveraged Fiat System Is

Zero Hedge -

Deflation Is Not The Villain - The Overleveraged Fiat System Is

Authored by Nick Giambruno via International Man,

It is important to clarify something here.

While mainstream economists, the financial media, academia, and other gatekeepers of the rotten fiat currency system howl about the dangers of deflation, it is worth taking a moment to consider whether it is really such a bad thing.

First, it is important to define our terms.

The correct and true meaning of inflation is an increase in the money supply. So the correct and true meaning of deflation is a decrease in the money supply. But that is not what most people mean when they refer to deflation, because the money supply rarely contracts in a fiat monetary system. When most people say deflation, they mean a general fall in prices.

One of the biggest popular misconceptions in economics is that a general fall in prices is a "bad thing."

It is an enormous misnomer. Falling prices caused by increases in productivity are actually a good thing. Who does not want to see their money go farther?

Technology is naturally deflationary. It drives down costs, increases efficiency, and makes goods and services cheaper over time.

In an honest monetary system, that would mean falling prices and rising purchasing power. In other words, your money would buy more as technology advances.

But that is not how the current system is designed to work. In fact, it does the opposite. It is like running on a treadmill that keeps accelerating.

In a fiat currency system, deflationary increases in productivity are more than offset by inflation, which benefits people who own stocks, houses, and other assets that rise with inflation, and hurts those who depend on wages denominated in the debased currency.

In short, in a fiat currency system, the benefits of deflationary technology primarily accrue to asset holders, because the forced inflation created by central banks pumps up asset values.

If we were living under an honest, hard-money monetary system, where the benefits of technology would not be offset by central banks debasing the currency, those gains would accrue more evenly across the population.

That is why I think the chart below is instructive.

It is a long-term view of real wages versus productivity.

The two tracked together well for decades, showing that as productivity increased, real wages did too. In other words, most people benefited from increases in productivity through higher real wages.

Then something changed around 1971, when that strong positive correlation broke. It was the year the US government cut the dollar's last link to gold and the dollar became a pure fiat currency.

Since 1971, there has been a growing gap between productivity and real wages.

If you could transport yourself back to the early 1970s, just as the divergence between productivity and real wages began, and ask people what they thought 2026 would look like, they might have said something like The Jetsons - flying cars, advanced technology, and a society in which everyone was better off.

They probably would not have believed you if you told them that, in reality, people would be worse off in many ways in 2026 than they were in the early 1970s, despite enormous technological progress. We may not have flying cars or The Jetsons, but there have still been significant advances. Yet people's standard of living has declined in many ways.

Today, many people are bewildered by how people could be worse off now than they were then. The answer is in this chart, which shows that the fiat system and currency debasement are the problem.

Despite advances in technology, the shocking level of currency debasement has not merely kept pace with the natural deflation that comes from increased productivity, but has vastly outpaced it... which is why people are, in many ways, worse off today than they were in the early 1970s. That prosperity has been stolen by inflation and fiat currency.

Since 1971, productivity has continued to increase, largely thanks to advances in technology, but those gains have not translated into growth in real wages as they had in the past under an honest money system. That is because under a fiat currency system, the central bank - the Federal Reserve - has created significantly more inflation than the gains in productivity, which meant real wages did not keep up.

However, those productivity gains from advancing technology did not just disappear. They were redirected somewhere else. They accrued primarily to asset holders, as wage earners chased rapidly depreciating fiat currency.

In short, the fiat currency system is a mechanism for transferring wealth created by technological productivity gains to asset holders and politically connected insiders closest to the money printer.

Frankly, it is a disgusting, dishonest system that operates at the expense of honest people.

But that is the nature of the monetary system we are all forced to live under. And it is wise to acknowledge it, understand it, and take action to protect yourself.

And now, with AI bringing a mind-bending level of productivity gains, this dynamic is about to go into overdrive.

I suspect we will see the gap in the chart above explode even further as AI, and future breakthrough technologies, produce the biggest productivity gains in human history, even as the US government is forced to create the largest amount of inflation in history to try to keep the debt-ridden fiat system going in the face of this historic disruption.

In other words, as technology becomes exponentially more deflationary and debt grows exponentially larger, the central bank's response will have to become exponentially more aggressive.

That means more debasement of your purchasing power to fight the very force that should be making your life cheaper.

Clearly, you want to be an asset owner in this environment so you can protect yourself from currency debasement and also benefit from tech-driven productivity gains.

But what assets should you own? I will get to that soon.

If we lived under an honest monetary system anchored in hard-to-produce money like gold, I think there would be far fewer worries about AI automation and disruption. That is because we would not live under a debt-ridden fiat system in which the government is forced to debase the currency. That would mean increases in productivity from technology would benefit far more people, as their money would go farther, prices would generally fall, and the cost of living would decline. And the government would not try to offset that with inflation.

In such a world, I do not think AI would be nearly as controversial, because it would be seen as making the average person wealthier by reducing the cost of living.

So technological deflation that increases productivity and lowers prices is most certainly not a bad thing, as the fiat economists would have you believe. It is a wonderful thing and should create more abundance and make most people wealthier... in an honest monetary system.

That is why the whole framing around this issue needs to be challenged. It is not technology that is the problem. It is the fiat currency and the highly leveraged system that is the problem.

It is also why you see charlatans promote things like universal basic income (UBI) as a solution to the supposed AI problem.

The solution to the non-problem of technological increases in productivity is most certainly not a UBI, but rather an honest hard-money monetary system in which everyone generally benefits from increases in productivity - not just asset holders and politically connected insiders closest to the money printer.

Throwing the plebs a few crumbs with a UBI to help prop up a failing debt-based fiat currency scam is not a real solution. But thankfully, there is a real solution.

It starts with understanding the monetary, economic, and political forces driving this crisis - and taking practical steps before the next major wave of instability hits.

The fiat system is already under enormous pressure from sky-high debt, endless money printing, and accelerating technological disruption. The people who understand what is happening will be in a far better position than those who are blindsided by it.

That is why I put together a free special report focused on practical solutions - the top three strategies to help protect your money, preserve your freedom, and prepare for what comes next.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 17:00

Buffett Delays Midyear Donation To Gates Foundation Amid Epstein Controversy

Zero Hedge -

Buffett Delays Midyear Donation To Gates Foundation Amid Epstein Controversy

Warren Buffett has funneled roughly $48 billion into the Gates Foundation from 2006 to 2025, typically through annual midyear transfers of Berkshire Hathaway shares. However, this year, for the first time in two decades, Buffett is reportedly delaying his usual donation as he waits for the outcome of a review into the foundation's ties to the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, according to a new Wall Street Journal report.

The delay comes as Buffett's relationship with Gates, a longtime friend, has reportedly become strained since the release of Justice Department files related to Epstein.

Buffett said in March that he had not spoken with Gates since the files were released and wanted to see what else emerged before making his annual giving decision.

WSJ noted:

Whatever decision Buffett makes, it isn't expected to affect his annual contributions to his family's foundations, including those run by his three children and the Susan Thompson Buffett Foundation, named after his first wife, according to the people familiar with the matter.

This year, a series of DoJ documents sparked scrutiny of Gates's ties to Epstein. He recently appeared at a congressional hearing and said that his meetings with Epstein were "a grave error in judgment."

Bill Gates with an unidentified but manifestly well-proportioned brunette number, in a photo from the Epstein files (House Oversight Committee)

Related:

Bill Gates with an unidentified but manifestly well-proportioned brunette number, in a photo from the Epstein files (House Oversight Committee)

WSJ recently reported that the Gates Foundation slashed 500 jobs, or about 20% of its staff, as the left-wing NGO has come under fire for Gates' ties to Epstein. Back in February, Gates pulled out as a keynote speaker at a high-profile global AI summit in India.

The Gates Foundation CEO recently told employees during a town hall event that the Gates-Epstein relationship had deeply tarnished the nonprofit's reputation, according to a Financial Times report.

But it is not just the Gates-Epstein ties that Buffett should be concerned about. Late last year, the Gates Foundation had to publicly sever ties with philanthropic adviser Arabella Advisors, which engineered a sprawling "dark money" network of nonprofit entities, including the New Venture Fund, Sixteen Thirty Fund, Hopewell Fund, and Windward Fund, that continues to wage color-revolution-style operations against President Trump.

All in all, it is not looking great for the Gates Foundation.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/30/2026 - 16:40

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