'Something Dark Is Going On': Nine Top-Level Scientists Die Or Go Missing In Past Year

Authored by Debra Heine via American Greatness,

In the span of nine months, nine top-level scientists in the United States have died or vanished without a trace.

Seven of them were connected to the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) or the institutions it directly funds.

AFRL develops and transitions the most sensitive aerospace technologies in the United States’ defense arsenal.

1) Monica Jacinto Reza vanished June 22, 2025 while hiking with friends in the Angeles National Forest in California.

She was last seen waving to a hiking companion approximately 30 feet behind the group. Despite an extensive search involving helicopters, drones, and canine units, only a beanie and lip balm were recovered, and her body was never found.

Reza, 60, was an aerospace engineer and Technical Fellow at Aerojet Rocketdyne who later moved to NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)and co-inventor of Mondaloy.

Mondaloy is a family of nickel-based superalloys developed by Aerojet Rocketdyne to withstand oxygen-rich environments and extreme heat in rocket engines. Its unique achievement is balancing high oxygen compatibility with structural strength, solving a critical challenge where traditional oxygen-resistant alloys were too weak for use in high-pressure components like preburners and turbine rotors.

She worked closely with Retired Major General William Neil McCasland, who commanded the AFRL from 2011 to 2013 and oversaw the government funding for her alloy program. McCasland disappeared in February.

Dallas Hardwick, Reza’s mentor and co-inventor of Mondaloy, died on January 5, 2014, apparently of natural causes.

2) Melissa Casias has been missing since June 26, 2025, in Taos County, New Mexico.

She was last seen walking alone on Highway 518 near Talpa around 2:15 p.m., wearing a light-colored shirt, jeans, and tennis shoes, with a backpack containing personal items.

Casias, 53, was an administrative assistant at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), a facility known for nuclear weapons research and national security science.

Her job at LANL links her to McCasland, who worked closely with LANL on national security projects at Kirtland Air Force Base, according to the Daily Mail. She vanished just four days after Reza mysteriously disappeared.

3, 4, 5) Jacob Prichard, Jaymee Prichard, and 1st Lt. Jaime Gustitus all died on October 25, 2025.

Jacob Prichard, 34, was the Acquisition Project Manager in the AFRL Sensors Directorate at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton, Ohio, specializing in technologies for air and space reconnaissance and surveillance.

Jacob’s wife, Jaymee Prichard, 33, was a finance specialist at the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center at Wright-Patterson. The couple had three children.

Gustitus, 25, was a U.S. Air Force Operations Analysis Officer who worked in a top secret capacity at the 711th Human Performance Wing at Wright-Patterson.

Jacob allegedly killed his wife Jaymee and placed her body in the trunk of their car, then drove to Sugarcreek Township, broke into Gustitus’s apartment and fatally shot her around 2 a.m.

He then drove to the West Milton Municipal Building, opened the trunk for police to discover Jaymee’s body, and at around 4:23 a.m., committed suicide by gunshot in the parking lot. The act was reportedly captured on security cameras.

6) Carl Grillmair, astrophysicist and astronomer at the Caltech Infrared Processing and Analysis Center (IPAC), was shot dead on the front porch of his home in Llano, California on February 16, 2026.

Grillmair was celebrated for his groundbreaking research in astronomy, including the discovery of dozens of stellar streams (remnants of ancient galactic collisions) and the first detection of water signatures in the atmospheres of exoplanets. For over nearly 30 years at IPAC, he worked on numerous projects including the NEOWISE Science Data Center, where he validated data pipelines for detecting asteroids and comets that could impact Earth.

Grillmair’s role involved testing new instrumentation and ensuring the NEO Surveyor’s instruments performed to specification to identify dark, cold objects against the black of space.

7) William Neil McCasland, former AFRL Commander, former research commander at Kirtland Air Force Base in New Mexico, vanished from his home in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on February 27, 2026.  A “Silver Alert” was issued after the 68-year-old disappeared.

He reportedly left his phone and glasses but took his wallet, boots, and a .38 revolver, with the FBI now assisting in his search.

McCasland held some of the most sensitive positions in the U.S. military, including Director of Special Programs at the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense, giving him critical knowledge of the nation’s most classified programs.

He reportedly oversaw $4.4 billion in classified aerospace research and development, running the lab at Wright-Patterson and serving as the executive secretary of the Special Access Program Oversight Committee, the body with full purview of every SAP in the Department of Defense. His name appears in WikiLeaks emails coordinating a UAP disclosure meeting with the Clinton campaign and the head of Lockheed Martin’s Skunk Works, according to the Sentinel Network.

McCasland’s association with UFO research and brief professional association with Tom DeLonge and the To The Stars Academy have drawn significant public and media attention to the case.

According to The Sentinel, these mysterious deaths and disappearances do not amount to  “a loose collection of people who happened to work in defense.”

This is one documented system, traceable through patent filings, congressional testimony, DTIC records, and federal contract databases.

Reza vanished in LA County. Grillmair was killed in LA County. Both in the shadow of the JPL/Caltech corridor where America’s planetary defense infrastructure is built. McCasland vanished in Albuquerque, home of Kirtland AFB and Sandia National Labs. The Wright-Patterson deaths were in Dayton. These are not random locations. They are the three geographic nodes of American defense aerospace research. Southern California. New Mexico. Ohio. The triangle where AFRL lives.

And at every node, the same institutional silence. JPL said nothing about Reza. NASA said nothing. The AIAA said nothing. Caltech’s statement about Grillmair said he “passed away suddenly” without using the word “shot.” Wright-Patterson offered counseling services. In every case, the institution that lost someone chose the minimum possible disclosure. The silence is its own pattern inside the pattern.

8) Nuno F. Gomes Loureiro, a prominent Portuguese plasma physicist, was fatally shot at his home in Brookline, Massachusetts, on December 15, 2025 and died from his injuries the following day.

Authorities connected his murder to Cláudio Manuel Neves Valente, who had committed a shooting at Brown University two days prior; both men were classmates at the Instituto Superior Técnico in Portugal.

Loureiro, 47, held joint appointments as a professor in MIT’s Department of Nuclear Science and Engineering and Department of Physics and director of MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center.

He joined MIT in 2016 and was known for his work on nonlinear plasma dynamics, including the development of the Viriato simulation code and his research on solar flares and fusion confinement.

9) Jason Thomas, a chemical biologist, was reported missing on December 13, 2025, after leaving his home on the night of December 12 without his phone, wallet, or identification. He was found dead in Lake Quannapowitt in Wakefield, Massachusetts, on March 17, 2026.

Thomas, 45, was the assistant director at Novartis Institutes for BioMedical Research with over 4,500 citations in chemical biology and chemoproteomics.  His work reportedly included active contracts with the Department of Defense.

Commenting on the string of deaths and disappearances, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) told podcaster Benny Johnson last week that “Something dark is going on.”

“I know these scientists and researchers. They have testified. We’ve got to get to the bottom of it,” he said.  “It’s just too much, too much is going on right now—and by the way, I’m not suicidal.”

*  *  * Thank you for your ongoing support

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 18:05

RFK Jr. Says Hospitals Must Serve Healthier Food

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

U.S. health officials on March 30 informed hospitals they must provide patients with more nutritious food.

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) stated in a memorandum to hospitals across the country that they must comply with certain conditions to receive federal funding, including making sure that menus and diets meet the nutritional needs of patients.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in Washington on Jan. 29, 2026. Dimitrios Kambouris/Getty Images

Officials noted the January release of new dietary guidelines, which emphasize limiting ultra-processed foods, refined carbohydrates, and sugar-laden products in favor of whole foods such as whole milk and meat.

Hospitals “should review and revise food and nutrition service policies, standard menus, therapeutic diet protocols, and food procurement practices to align with the [guidelines], which support contemporary evidence on diet quality and health outcomes,” the letter stated.

A good diet for a patient might feature steel-cut oats with berries and nuts for breakfast, grilled salmon with quinoa and roasted vegetables for lunch, and a lentil-based entree with a side salad later in the day, according to the document.

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., at an event in Florida that was held in part to coincide with the memo, said that it was “essentially a federal mandate” that would help incentivize hospitals to serve better food.

“The food at hospitals is so uniformingly, appallingly bad that it is now a pejorative,” he said. “If you tell somebody that this tastes like hospital food, it’s not a compliment.”

CMS is a division of Kennedy’s Department of Health and Human Services.

Dr. Mehmet Oz, the administrator of CMS, said in a statement that “hospitals are meant to heal—but too often, the food they serve holds patients back.”

“It’s time for hospitals to prioritize real, nutrient-dense food, cut ultra-processed options, and align meals with evidence-based medical needs.”

Oz and Kennedy said that revamping menus would lead to faster recovery and lower readmission rates for patients.

The event also included the announcement that Nicklaus Children’s Hospital had committed to sourcing 5 percent of its food from local farmers in Florida.

The hospital will look to add 1 percent to that percentage each year moving forward.

“This means that kids getting cancer treatment will eat real protein, from the producers here in Florida,” said Hannah Anderson, director of the Healthy America campaign from the America First Policy Institute, which hosted the event.

“This means that kids getting treatment for debilitating diseases will get whole milk. And this means that the kids who are fighting infection are getting the vitamin C and vitamin A from food that’s grown right here in Florida.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 17:15

Bullet Used in Charlie Kirk Murder Doesn't Match The Alleged Weapon, Defense Claims

There’s a new wrinkle in the case against Tyler Robinson, the 22-year-old charged with assassinating conservative activist Charlie Kirk. Defense attorneys revealed last week that federal ballistic analysis cannot link the bullet that killed Kirk to the rifle prosecutors say Robinson used.

Robinson faces charges of aggravated murder, along with multiple felony counts, for the September 10, 2025, killing of Kirk at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. Prosecutors are seeking the death penalty. The case seemed, from the outside, fairly straightforward: Robinson reportedly confessed to his father, who told a youth pastor with ties to the U.S. Marshals Service, and Robinson himself surrendered to the Washington County Sheriff's Office the following night. 

Prosecutors say DNA consistent with Robinson's was recovered from the trigger, the fired cartridge casing, and two unfired cartridges on the rifle found near the scene.

However, in a motion filed Friday, Robinson's attorneys disclosed that they had received an ATF summary report with an unexpected finding. "Regarding the firearm evidence, the defense has been provided with an ATF summary report which indicates that the ATF was unable to identify the bullet recovered at autopsy to the rifle allegedly tied to Mr. Robinson," the motion reads. The defense added, “Although the State has not indicated an intent to produce this report at the preliminary hearing, the defense may very well decide to offer the testimony of the ATF firearm analyst as exculpatory evidence.”

Authorities recovered an old German bolt-action Mauser Model 98 .30-06 caliber rifle used in both World Wars from a forested area near the shooting site. The FBI is conducting additional ballistic tests, but the results are still pending. Until they arrive, the defense is sitting on an ATF report that they believe actively undermines the state's physical evidence narrative.

Here's, by the way, what a .30-06 does:

DNA questions are also piling up alongside the ballistic ones. Defense attorneys point out that forensic reports show multiple people's DNA on some items, which they argue demands more sophisticated analysis than a standard single-contributor examination. 

“As these cases indicate, determining the number of contributors to a DNA mixture, and determining whether the FBI and the ATF reliably applied validated and correct scientific procedures … is a complicated process which requires the assistance of various types of experts, including forensic biologists, geneticists, system engineers, and statisticians, all of whom must review and evaluate" several categories.

The defense has received roughly 20,000 files - 61,500 pages, 31 hours of audio, and more than 700 hours of video spread across 5,000-plus clips. Defense attorneys say it will take at least 60 days to make a first pass through the material, and are now asking the court to push the May 18 preliminary hearing back by at least six months.

The preliminary hearing itself is not a trial. It's the moment prosecutors must demonstrate sufficient cause to proceed. That makes the ATF report strategically critical right now. If the defense can successfully use it to cast doubt on the state's physical evidence package at this early stage, the downstream implications for a capital case are significant.

However, it’s debatable how crucial it really is. Prosecutors still have DNA evidence, an alleged text message in which Robinson reportedly told his romantic partner he targeted Kirk because he "had enough of his hatred," and witness testimony from Robinson's parents and roommate. The confession to his father remains a cornerstone of the state's case.

The defense is also pushing for a televised trial, insisting that having the court proceedings “as public as possible helps to quell and contradict the tide of misinformation," and will limit conspiracy theories.

*  *  *

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 16:50

One Man Thinks He Knows "Why Everything Sucks"

Authored by Matt Van Swol via X,

I think I know why everything sucks...

...and it's because everything is fake

We are getting fake college degrees that cost 4 years and six figures that teach you fake education and get you fake jobs.

We are eating fake food, with fake ingredients, funded by fake research.

We are scrolling through fake lives, with fake relationships, who take fake, curated vacations to promote brands that make fake products.

We are voting for fake candidates, who run on fake promises, inside a fake system that was never designed to fix anything.

We are raising kids in fake schools that teach fake history, fake science, which quietly produce fake adults who can't think for themselves.

We are watching fake news, about fake crises, produced by fake journalists, for fake outrage.

We are borrowing fake money that was printed from nothing, to fund a fake economy that would collapse in an afternoon if people stopped pretending it was real.

We are buying fake organic food that's just a paid label, and drinking fake juice with two percent juice in it, and putting fake cheese on cheeseburgers that's just "cheese product" on fake burger meat.

We are donating to fake nonprofits where the money never makes it to the people and then funding fake foreign aid that buys real weapons to prop up fake governments.

We are going to fake therapy that teaches fake coping skills instead of telling you hard truths.

We are buying fake furniture made of fake wood that's actually compressed sawdust and glue that looks like wood, ships in fourteen boxes with instructions written in a fake language that isn't quite any language, requires tools it doesn't include, takes 4 hours to build, wobbles on day 1, and is totally destroyed in 6 months.

We are downloading fake "free" apps that charge a subscription after three days for AI features that don't work, hidden behind a paywall we didn't see, protected by a privacy policy we didn't read, buried inside Terms of Service written by lawyers specifically so we wouldn't read them, that we agreed to by tapping a button the size of a thumbnail, that gave a company we've never heard of the right to sell our data to companies we'll never hear of, to build a profile on us we'll never see, to influence decisions we'll never know were made.

IT. IS. ALL. FAKE.

And we all yearn for what was once real.

Don't you remember? Did you forget?

There was a time with a simple handshake between men was a contract.

When bread went stale because... well, that's what real bread does!

When kids played outside all day until it was dark, and nobody tracked them.

When a family could live off a single income.

When music was made by people who LIVED something real and you could feel it.

When schools was HARD... and that was the point!

When doctors knew your name and your family, they even came to your house.

When you bought something once... and it was yours forever.

When the chair your grandmother bought once lasted 70 years and she passed it onto your dad.

And now nothing is real, and that's why everything sucks.

I think I know why everything sucks...

...and it's because everything is fake

We are getting fake college degrees that cost 4 years and six figures that teach you fake education and get you fake jobs.

We are eating fake food, with fake ingredients, funded by fake research.… pic.twitter.com/lmhoUGVi23

— Matt Van Swol (@mattvanswol) March 30, 2026

*  *  *

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 16:25

Another Greek Tanker Sneaks Through Strait Of Hormuz

Another Greek-controlled oil tanker has crossed the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iran's declaration that only "friendly" vessels will be allowed to make the transit, marking the fourth such voyage since hostilities in the Middle East began.

The suezmax Pola, which switched off its tracking system in the Persian Gulf on March 10, was detected again on Monday by the Automatic Identification System: it was located several thousand miles away. 

The ship was sailing in the eastern Indian Ocean near the maritime corridor off the coast of Indonesia’s Sumatra island, according to vessel tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Its reappearance obviously confirms the tanker successfully crossed the Strait of Hormuz.  The tanker, laden with roughly 1 million barrels of crude, is en route to Thailand, according to data from intelligence firm Kpler.

The Pola is the fourth vessel managed by Dynacom Tankers Management Ltd. to make the passage through Hormuz with its transponder switched off since its effective closure. The firm also sent the oil tankers Shenlong, Smyrni and Marathi through the narrow waterway earlier this month.

While Iran continues to bar “hostile” entities from the strategic waterway, several Asian countries, including Thailand, have secured bilateral agreements to allow passage through the Strait for some tankers and cargo ships. However, Greece is not among the countries publicly viewed by Tehran as "friendly."

Still, risks to shipping in the Persian Gulf remain high, with Iran hitting a fully laden Kuwaiti tanker off Dubai in a drone strike last night.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 14:20

Stock Market Breadth: Warning Or Opportunity?

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

The S&P 500 is down roughly 7% from its January 27 all-time high. Unsurprisingly, the media is full of “red” headlines discussing the seemingly “endless” correction we are in. Unsurprisingly, previously complacent investors are now anxious, as nothing seems to be working. But that index-level headline conceals something far more alarming: stock market breadth has collapsed. According to Morgan Stanley, approximately 42% of S&P 500 members are already down 20% or more from their 52-week highs. More than 200 companies are in their own private bear markets, even as the index itself is not.

This was a point we noted in this past weekend’s Bull Bear Report:

“J.P. Morgan captured the paradox: the S&P 500 is down only ~9% despite oil rising 70% and the Fed shifting from pricing two cuts to a 50% probability of a hike, and software falling 20%. As we noted recently, a much larger correction is underway in the market.”

While “times have been tough lately,” this is not a new phenomenon. Stock market breadth deterioration almost always precedes index-level damage, not the other way around. On March 9th, we noted in Technical Deterioration: Risk Management Is Key:”

“More importantly, the RSI exhibited a textbook bearish divergence at the all-time high: price made a new peak, but momentum did not confirm. We repeatedly discussed that divergence was the earliest signal of the distribution phase now unfolding. With the RSI not in oversold territory below 30, there is room for more pressure before a technical bounce becomes probable.”

Here is an updated chart showing that previous divergence. Along with waning stock market breadth, relative strength is now in oversold territory.

What’s unusual today is the degree of divergence between individual stocks and the cap-weighted index. When a handful of stocks carry enough weight to paper over widespread internal damage, investors holding diversified portfolios feel the pain long before the headlines acknowledge it.

Furthermore, as detailed in The 200-DMA Just Broke, the deterioration is not uncommon of corrective markets. That break, combined with deeply oversold momentum readings and AAII bearish sentiment, creates a historically specific setup.

The breadth story is quite fascinating. The software sector has 97% of its S&P 500 members 20% of more below their respective 52-week highs. Automobile stocks follow at 75%, with media and entertainment at 63%.

The other end of the distribution is equally instructive. Energy stocks have zero members in bear territory. Utilities sit at just 6%, and consumer staples at 14%. Those numbers confirm the rotation that’s been underway since January.

“Significant rotation trades, characterized by heavy trading activity in and out of various sectors and factors, have led to large daily divergences in the performance of certain sectors. The market’s surface may look calm, but beneath it, passive investors are actively shifting between narratives, valuations, and risk exposures.” — RIA Advisors, February 2026

So, what likely happens next?

Reading the 200-DMA Break: Six Signals, Mixed Picture

Since 2000, the S&P 500 has broken its 200-DMA on a sustained basis seven times. The average one-month return following those breaks was -5.3%, and none produced a positive first-month return. The average 12-month return after a sustained break was -4.0%.

But the distinction between a sustained break and a reflexive whipsaw matters enormously. When the 200-DMA was already flat or declining before the price crossed below, every major bear market since 2000 followed: 2000, 2008, 2022. When the 200-DMA was still rising at the break, as it is currently, the average 12-month return was +19.8%, with a 100% hit rate for positive returns at 3, 6, 9, and 12 months.

Today’s scorecard is mixed. The 200-DMA is still rising, RSI is now below 30, and AAII bearish sentiment has risen sharply. and well above the 45% contrarian threshold. These are all still bullish. Against that, the weekly MACD had already turned negative before the price break, which has preceded every sustained bear since 2000. Stock market breadth, measured by the percentage of S&P 500 stocks above their 200-day moving averages, has dropped sharply and is below the 60% level that historically characterizes whipsaw recoveries.

Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett described the current environment as approaching a “buyable washout.” He is probably correct, but until the Iran situation is resolved, or at least a path to resolution is visible, the risk of a deeper decline can not be discounted. However, investors shouldn’t panic-sell this correction. As JPMorgan’s global market strategist, Jack Manley, noted:

“When there’s a bad sell-off, that bad sell-off is typically followed by a strong bounce back. Given the nature of this sell-off, the likelihood for that bounce back, whenever it occurs, to be pretty concentrated and pretty powerful is that much higher.”

In that previous article, we examined every instance since 2000 where all three conditions aligned simultaneously: stock market breadth deterioration with 40% or more of S&P 500 members in bear territory, the index trading below its 200-DMA, and both MACD and RSI in oversold territory. Six comparable episodes emerged:

• October 2002,

• March 2009,

• February 2016,

• December 2018,

• March 2020, and

• October 2022.

If those dates don’t mean anything to you, those were the months that previous corrections and bear markets ended…not began.

Yes, the near-term picture is uncomfortable, and the average one-month return in these setups is -2.1%, with only 42% of periods producing positive outcomes. While pain tends to extend, and a lower low within one to three months is the historical norm rather than the exception, it serves to wash out weaker hands.

It is the medium- and long-term data that convey the real message. By 12 months, the average return climbs to +14.6%, with 75% of comparable periods producing positive outcomes. At 24 months, average returns reach +26.3%, and the positive hit rate rises to 83%. The investor who stayed positioned through the fear, in all six of these episodes, came out far ahead of the investor who sold into it.

The Permanent Cost of Panic Selling

The single most damaging decision most investors make during periods of falling stock market breadth is selling. The data on this is unambiguous. Seven of the market’s 10 best days in any given 20-year period occur within two weeks of the 10 worst days, according to JPMorgan Asset Management research. The best days follow the worst days because fear-driven selling creates dislocations that are rapidly corrected. You can see this in the chart below, that the best and worst days are clustered together.

In other words, while investors are always told to just “buy and hold” because they will miss the 10-BEST days if they don’t, investors should focus on mitigating the risk of significant capital losses during those periods.

This doesn’t mean you can effectively miss all the bad days; however, given that higher-volatility periods tend to cluster, understanding when to reduce exposure can significantly improve outcomes over time. Even if you miss the 10-best days along the way. That math applies with particular force in setups like the current one. Since 1974, according to data compiled by Clear Perspective Advisors, the S&P 500 has returned more than 24% on average following a market correction. Only 25% of the 48 corrections since World War II have progressed into full bear markets. In other words, there is a 75% chance this correction will not turn into a bear market. However, dismissing that 25% entirely is just as foolish for future outcomes.

The One Variable That Changes Everything

The honest caveat to all this data is the recession. The two worst outcomes in the six-episode dataset, 2002 and 2008, were both accompanied by genuine economic contractions that extended the drawdown far beyond what the averages suggest. In those cases, forward returns at 12 months were still negative.

Today’s macro environment doesn’t yet show the classic recessionary signatures that preceded those two episodes. The 200-DMA is still rising, not declining, but time will change that. The Fed retains room to cut rates, but higher sustained oil prices could curtail that. Furthermore, deeply oversold sentiment indicators have historically correlated more with fear peaks than with the beginning of prolonged selling cycles. But oversold markets can, and have, become even more so previously.

Whether the Iran conflict and its oil price transmission into consumer spending and corporate margins eventually tips the economy into contraction remains the central unresolved question. That question is the one thing that investors need to guard against the most.

Goldman Sachs has held its 7,600 year-end S&P 500 target through the recent sell-off, anchored by projections of roughly $309 per share in 2026 earnings and $342 in 2027. That base case rests on 12% earnings growth and an economy that continues to expand despite the headwinds from the Iran conflict. Goldman’s own bear cases are sobering: a moderate growth shock takes the index to 6,300, while a severe oil-driven disruption could push it as low as 5,400, with the forward P/E compressing from 21x to 16x in the worst case.

JPMorgan has moved more decisively in the other direction, cutting its year-end target to 7,200 from 7,500 on March 19, citing oil supply shut-ins of 8 million barrels per day, the highest on record, and warning that markets are dangerously underestimating the demand destruction risk. JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas explicitly flagged near-term downside to 6,000–6,200, noting that four of five oil shocks since the 1970s have preceded a recession. Neither bank is calling for 2008. But the spread between their base cases and their downside scenarios has rarely been this wide.

Here is the most important point.

“Stock market breadth will eventually resolve, either by individual stocks recovering toward the benchmark level, or by the index itself catching down to the damage that’s already been inflicted.”

History says the former is far more likely given the current configuration of indicators. Given that backdrop, here are some steps to consider with respect to your own personal situation, goals, and objectives.

Stock market breadth, by any measure, is at levels historically associated with significant forward returns for patient investors. Three of the six key indicators that separate a brief, recoverable 200-DMA break from a sustained bear market are currently bullish, not bearish. That doesn’t mean the pain is over, as near-term data suggest a lower low is possible. However, for investors who can navigate the storm, clearer skies and calmer tides will eventually prevail

The goal isn’t to time the bottom. Nobody does that consistently. The goal is to avoid permanent capital impairment from panic selling, reduce risk through disciplined rebalancing, and be positioned to participate in the recovery. Based on every comparable episode in the modern era, that recovery has come, and it has come faster than the fear of the moment would suggest.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 14:00

The post The Orange Man Goes Green appeared first on CEPR.

Oracle Firing Tens Of Thousands As CDS Explodes To Financial Crisis Record

Two months ago, when ORCL announced it would raise $50 billion in a combination of stock and bonds to ease market fears about its soaring funding costs and lack of actual revenues and "to build additional capacity to meet the contracted demand from the company’s largest cloud customers, including Advanced Micro Devices, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, OpenAI, TikTok and xAI" we said that this latest example of financial engineering, which perhaps most importantly was meant to push its soaring Credit Default Swap lower, was doomed to fail. 

We didnt have long to wait: since the Feb 1 announcement, the stock has tumbled to fresh multi year lows...

... but the big risk is that despite the company's best equity-diluting intentions, ORCL 5 Year CDS just hit the widest on record, a level first (and only) seen during the global financial crisis.

This is a problem because despite Larry Ellison's best efforts to convince the market that Oracle has more than enough projected revenue - and a massive enough backlog - to grow into its bloated balance sheet, which is approaching $200 billion including off-balance sheet exposure, and refute such claims such as the following from Barclays which warned two months ago that the market "Underestimates the Infrastructure Build Out Necessary to Execute to Oracle's $512 billion RPO Balance"...

Source: Barclays, available to pro subs

... and that the company will badly miss estimates, as it is forced to fund a much higher capex (some $275 billion) than consensus projects...

Source: Barclays, available to pro subs

... the market simply is not buying it. Literally. 

So what is Oracle to do? Well, it is literally going down the list of what Barclays proposed two months ago would be "next steps" as the cold hard reality slams Oracle's publicly traded securities, the first of which was...

• RIF of 20-30K employees which could drive ~$8-10B of incremental free cash flow,

And sure enough, this morning Oracle told employees that it’s conducting a major round of layoffs. 

According to CNBC "the layoffs were in the thousands"  although with the company employing some 162,000 people, to make an actual dent in free cash flow (which ORCL does not have), it will have to fire tens of thousands.

Layoff emails began landing in inboxes around 6:00 a.m. EST, informing recipients that their roles had been "eliminated" and that the day of notification would be their last working day — with no prior discussion or HR outreach.

"We are sharing some difficult news regarding your position. After careful consideration of Oracle's current business needs, we have made the decision to eliminate your role as part of a broader organizational change. As a result, today is your last working day. We are grateful for your dedication, hard work, and the impact you have made during your time with us," the email read.

Industry sources estimate that between 20,000 and 30,000 positions have been impacted, potentially affecting up to 18% of Oracle's global workforce of roughly 162,000.

Employees reported that the automated mass emails were their only notification, with system access revoked shortly thereafter and instructions to provide personal email addresses to receive severance paperwork.

With Oracle slashing overhead, it will use the funds to invest in CapEx instead. Here is CNBC "While continuing to push its flagship database for storing and serving up corporate information, Oracle has ratcheted up its capital expenditures as it builds data center infrastructure that can handle AI workloads." 

Needless to say, this process has been anything but smooth for the most indebted tech giant, and the company many view as the first canary in the AI bubble coalmine. 

While Oracle disclosed that its remaining performance obligations (basically backlog) jumped 359% to $455 billion following an agreement with OpenAI worth over $300 billion, the market refused to reward the company for the circular financing number,  and weeks later, Oracle picked executives Mike Sicilia and Clay Magouyrk to replace its CEO, Safra Catz. 

As for ORCL's employees, while tens of thousands are about to be fired, expect many more to leave the company if Barclays is right and the company's CapEx spending ends up being some $85 billion above the current consensus of $189 billion...

More in the full Barclays report available to pro subs.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 13:00

Pentagon Weighs Anti-Drone Laser Weapon Deployment In DC To Fortify Airspace

We outlined a glaring security gap in U.S. counter-drone defenses well before the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted one month ago.

At the time, we specifically pointed out that data centers are largely unprepared for drone threats. We believe the Gulf conflict - after Iran bombed multiple data centers and military bases - has likely pushed the federal government into panic mode, accelerating efforts to deploy counter-drone systems around high-value targets across the homeland, whether military bases or civilian infrastructure.

This brings us to a New York Times report from Tuesday morning outlining how the Department of War is considering deploying anti-drone laser weapons near Fort McNair in Washington, DC, where Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio reside, following recent reports of suspicious activity and ongoing concerns about drone attacks on the homeland.

The report cited sources who "requested anonymity" and said the Army is discussing deploying laser weapons that would add an extra layer of security to some of the world's most secure airspace across the Washington-Baltimore region.

The Federal Aviation Administration and the DoW are reportedly moving closer to a broader agreement on laser weapons, which offer a low-cost solution for defeating drone threats at scale, especially in an era when cheap kamikaze drones and swarms can quickly exhaust even the most sophisticated air defenses.

On Sunday, Heather Chairez, a spokeswoman for an Army-led joint task force in the DC area, said she was "aware of the reported drone sightings near Fort McNair and the surrounding areas." She noted there was no credible threat in the recent incident, yet the task force had increased its counter-drone activities "to keep our service members and civilians who work and live on Fort McNair safe."

An FAA spokeswoman, Hannah Walden, said the heads of her agency are prepared to work with the DoW and other agencies "to protect the homeland while ensuring the safety of the national airspace system."

Security gaps in America's airspace regarding cheap drones are alarming, and it is not just military installations that need protection. Data centers, ports, refineries, and power infrastructure are also vulnerable. The list is endless.

With battlefields raging across Eurasia, from Russia and Ukraine to the Gulf, one thing is clear: using expensive missile interceptors against $20,000 drones is not sustainable in the economics of war. In fact, low-cost lasers could be part of the answer, though low-cost interceptor drones have also proven valuable in places like Ukraine.

One of the first known instances of the U.S. military using laser weapons against a "foreign object" occurred last month in El Paso, though it actually turned out to be party balloons.

NYT did not identify the laser power class for the DC region, but the most likely option for counter-drone deployment would be around 50 to 60 kilowatts, which aligns with systems the U.S. military is already fielding and developing for air-defense missions. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 12:40

Treasury Unveils Whistleblower Portal To Combat Transnational Medicare, Medicaid Fraud Rings

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Whistleblowers are encouraged to report abuse of Medicare, Medicaid, and other government health benefit programs, the Department of the Treasury announced on March 30, while warning that sophisticated fraud schemes are siphoning billions from them.

The White House and the U.S. Department of the Treasury in Washington on March 10, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

In an advisory, the Treasury detailed the way in which transnational criminal organizations—working with domestic fraudsters and organized crime groups—create fake health care providers, employ cover people to pose as owners who are not U.S. residents, and steal the personal data of actual beneficiaries to submit false claims for care that was never provided or was not needed. Proceeds are then laundered through wire transfers, digital assets, and culpable bank co-conspirators before being transferred overseas.

The department said its Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) has published a proposed rule to fully implement a whistleblower program that would reward 10–30 percent of penalties collected in successful enforcement in fraud and money laundering cases, as well as sanctions violations. Payments would be taken from penalties obtained under the Bank Secrecy Act and other laws already in place.

“The regulation proposed today, when finalized, will fully implement these statutes,” FinCEN said. “Whistleblowers are encouraged to submit information as soon as possible and to provide detailed, specific documentation to support their claims.”

In the meantime, FinCEN said it “recently launched a portal” for whistleblowers to begin making reports.

Financial institutions reported a 20 percent increase in suspicious activity linked to health care fraud in 2025 over the previous year, according to the advisory. Officials, however, suspect the filings reveal only a small part of the fraud.

“President Trump has been clear that Americans have a right to know that their tax dollars are not being used to commit fraud,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement. “Under President Trump’s leadership, Treasury will continue to find and disrupt fraud schemes wherever they exist, and we will work with our law enforcement partners to hold perpetrators to account.”

The department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network advisory comes as the Trump administration works to undermine waste and abuse in federal spending.

The advisory was released in collaboration with the FBI and the Health and Human Services Department’s Office of Inspector General. It aligns with an executive order targeting fraud across federal payments.

Treasury officials said the advisory and proposed regulation are in line with administration actions to protect taxpayer dollars and protect the financial system against illicit activity, and that financial institutions are requested to file suspicious activity reports and to inform law enforcement immediately upon encountering suspicious transactions.

In February, Bessent described efforts to combat fraud in federal spending.

“We are encouraging whistleblowers who know about fraud, people who are stealing from the American taxpayer, to come forward at Treasury,” he said. “We will be giving rewards up to 10 percent to 30 percent of the fines that we levy.”

Bessent added that these efforts represent a great way to ferret out waste, fraud, and abuse.

The Trump administration has also flagged fraud concerns in New York.

Federal investigators there have homed in on the state’s Medicaid program. In March, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Administrator Dr. Mehmet Oz, tasked with spearheading a federal review of Medicaid spending, cited abnormal job growth in home health and personal care aides as showing signs of possible abuse.

“Heart surgeons are trained to look at the numbers,” the cardiothoracic surgeon said. “When something doesn’t add up, you don’t ignore it; you investigate.”

In a specific New York case, eight people were indicted in a $68 million Medicaid fraud scheme revolving around Brooklyn adult day care centers that allegedly entailed bribes and inflated claims.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 12:20

Ukraine's Backers Want Reduction In Long-Range Strikes On Russian Oil, Zelensky Says

We've been highlighting the significant impact of the Iran war on developments in Ukraine, where the over four-year long war is showing no end in sight. Ukraine's President Zelensky has made clear his view that the current global focus on the Iran conflict has put Kiev in a weakened position.

Already, Ukraine's international partners are 'primarily' sending their anti-ballistic missile systems to the Middle East - with Ukraine 'forgotten' - Zelensky has recently said. But there's more, as the hits keep coming: Zelensky revealed Monday that some of Ukraine's backers have sent "signals" to scale back long-range strikes on Russia's oil sector as global energy prices have soared.

via Associated Press

"Recently, following such a severe global energy crisis, we have indeed ⁠received signals from some of our partners about how to reduce our responses in the ​oil sector and the energy sector of the Russian Federation," Zelensky told journalists in a WhatsApp briefing, reported by Reuters.

This is perhaps what's behind his calling for an Easter holiday truce with Russia. He had on the same day that he told journalists about a potential pause on long-range attacks on Russian energy stated: "If Russia is ready to stop hitting Ukrainian energy facilities, we will not respond against their energy sector."

Zelensky just came off a tour of Middle East Gulf states, even amid Iran's ongoing retaliation in the region, while seeking Ukrainian security assistance. In recent days he met with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar and Jordan.

Reuters notes of this, "Fresh from a four-day visit to the Middle East, Zelenskiy said that he had reached agreement with some countries in the region to provide energy support to Ukraine."

"Zelenskiy said at the weekend during his Middle ​East tour that he ​had reached a deal ⁠on diesel deliveries for a year to Ukraine, without providing further details," the report continues. "Diesel is vital for the functioning of the Ukrainian armed forces and ​the country's agricultural sector, the bedrock of the economy."

So indeed any new pause in tit-for-tat assaults on energy infrastructure would be a welcome reprieve for Ukraine as well.

One interesting aspect to the Reuters report is that while the US side hasn't commented, one unnamed source tries to inject that the 'signaling' on reducing or halting long-range strikes on energy is actually coming from Moscow:

A source familiar with the situation said U.S. officials had conveyed this message to their Ukrainian counterparts as part of their regular conversations, adding that the initial "signals" appeared to have come from Moscow.

And yet, even as Zelensky himself admits, Trump's easing of Russian oil sanctions has put the Kremlin in the driver's seat, in terms of energy leverage, at this crucial moment - also as the peace process and talks between Moscow and Keiv are non-existent.

In the meantime, amid waning support from the Trump administration, Zelensky has set his sights on greatly improving ties with the wealthy oil and gas monarchies in the Gulf.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 12:00

Supreme Court Sides With Christian Counselor, Strikes Down Colorado 'Conversion Therapy' Ban

In a landmark 8-1 decision issued today, the Supreme Court sided with a Christian mental health counselor - ruling that Colorado’s law banning "conversion therapy" violates the First Amendment. 

A transgender rights supporter takes part in a rally outside of the U.S. Supreme Court in December. The court on Tuesday heard arguments in a conversion therapy ban case out of Colorado. (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

The majority held that Colorado’s 2019 law unconstitutionally discriminates on the basis of viewpoint by allowing counselors to affirm and support clients exploring gender transition or identity while prohibiting any talk-therapy efforts to help clients reduce unwanted same-sex attractions, change sexual behaviors, or align their gender identity with their biological sex.

The solo dissent being (drumroll...) Ketanji Brown Jackson.  

BREAKING: In an 8-1 ruling, the Supreme Court announced this morning that Colorado’s ban on so-called conversion therapy violates First Amendment free speech rights. Gorsuch wrote the majority opinion. Jackson was the lone dissent.

“The First Amendment stands as a bulwark… pic.twitter.com/roTX2k7NkB

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) March 31, 2026

Writing for the majority, Justice Neil Gorsuch declared that Colorado’s statute “regulates speech based on viewpoint” by permitting counselors to affirm clients’ gender transitions or identity exploration while prohibiting any efforts to help clients reduce same-sex attractions, change sexual behaviors, or align their gender identity with their biological sex. The decision reverses the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Tenth Circuit and remands the case for further proceedings consistent with rigorous First Amendment scrutiny.

"Colorado’s law permits her to express acceptance and support for clients exploring their identity or undergoing gender transition," Gorsuch wrote. "but forbids her from saying anything that attempts to change a client’s ‘sexual orientation or gender identity,’ including efforts to change ‘behaviors,’ ‘gender expressions,’ or ‘romantic attraction[s].’"

He emphasized that speech does not lose constitutional protection merely because the government labels it “treatment” or “therapeutic modality.” “The First Amendment is no word game,” the opinion states, citing NAACP v. Button (1963).

Jackson, meanwhile, wrote that the decision "opens a dangerous can of worms" that "threatens to impair states’ ability to regulate the provision of medical care in any respect."

"In the worst-case scenario, our medical system unravels as various licensed healthcare professionals — talk therapists, psychiatrists, and presumably anyone else who claims to utilize speech when administering treatments to patients — start broadly wielding their new-found constitutional right to provide substandard medical care." 

Unsurprisingly, Axios agrees with Jackson - writing that the decision "has implications beyond the Colorado therapy sessions by setting precedent that therapists' conversations with patients are regarded as a form of constitutionally protected speech and rolling back protections for LGBTQ+ youth."

Background

Chiles is a licensed professional counselor in Colorado Springs and a practicing Christian. She holds a master’s degree in clinical mental health and provides exclusively talk therapy—no medications, physical interventions, or coercive techniques. As described in the case, she does not approach sessions with predetermined outcomes. Instead, she listens to clients, including minors, as they articulate their own goals and works with them to pursue those objectives while respecting their autonomy.

Many clients seek her out specifically for her faith-integrated approach. Chiles has said she believes people flourish when they live in alignment with God’s design, including their biological sex. Some clients want support affirming their current identity, while others seek help reducing unwanted same-sex attractions, changing behaviors, or finding greater alignment with their bodies.

In 2019, Colorado enacted a law prohibiting licensed counselors from engaging in “conversion therapy” with minors. The statute broadly bans practices aimed at changing a minor’s sexual orientation or gender identity, including efforts to alter behaviors, gender expression, or reduce same-sex attractions. At the same time, it expressly allows counselors to provide “acceptance, support, and understanding” for identity exploration and to assist individuals undergoing gender transition.

Chiles filed suit in federal court in 2022, seeking a preliminary injunction limited to her talk-therapy practice. Both the district court and the Tenth Circuit found she had Article III standing but denied relief, ruling that the law regulated professional conduct and only incidentally burdened speech, so it needed only rational-basis review. Judge Harris Hartz dissented in the Tenth Circuit. The Supreme Court granted certiorari to resolve the circuit split, heard argument on October 7, 2025, and issued its 8-1 decision today.

* * * To get the Brain Stack at a 10% discount with no subscription - 'add all to cart' 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 11:30

European Inflation Jumps Most Since 2022 On Soaring Energy Prices Even As Core CPI Unexpectedly Shrinks

In an early preview of the coming inflation spike, the euro area saw its steepest jump in inflation since 2022 as the Iran war pushed energy costs sharply higher, backing expectations that the ECB will have to raise interest rates.

In March, European consumer prices rose 2.5% from a year ago in March - and up a whopping 1.9% from the previous month - to the highest since January 2025. The silver lining: the median estimate was for an even higher 2.6% print. 

Yet while headline inflation soared, demand destruction appears to have depressed other purchases, and core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, unexpectedly slowed to 2.3%, while the closely watched services gauge also eased, Eurostat said Tuesday.

Some more details from Goldman:

• Euro area headline HICP inflation increased by 0.63pp to 2.52%yoy in March, below our tracking and consensus of 2.6%yoy. Core HICP inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, went down 15bp to 2.26%yoy, broadly in line with our latest tracking estimate but below consensus expectations of 2.4%yoy.
• The breakdown by main expenditure categories showed services inflation declining to 3.23%yoy, with part of the decline likely driven by Olympics-induced tourism and hospitality-related components payback in Italy, while non-energy industrial goods inflation went down to 0.47%yoy, surprising our latest tracking estimate to the downside. Of the non-core components, energy inflation increased to 4.9%yoy, close to our latest tracking but lower than we initially expected, while food, alcohol and tobacco inflation decline to 2.35%yoy, weaker than we expected.
• Using our seasonal adjustment methodology, aimed to closely replicate the ECB's, and removing the Easter adjustment for the whole services basket, we estimate that seasonally adjusted sequential core inflation was 0.08%mom in March, down from 0.33%mom in the February reading (Exhibit 3). Within core inflation, we estimate that seasonally adjusted sequential core goods inflation went down to -0.13%mom in March, while sequential services inflation declined to 0.19%mom from 0.38%mom in February. This compares to the ECB's estimates of 0.07%mom, -0.17%mom and 0.20%mom for core, goods and services inflation respectively. 
• Our flash measure of underlying inflation moved down from 0.154%mom to 0.149%mom in March.
• Incorporating the March flash release into the Euro area inflation path, our medium-term path continues to show core inflation at 2.4%yoy in 2026, peaking at 2.5%yoy in Q3 and then falling to 2.4%yoy by end-2026 and to 2.1% by end-2027, somewhat above the ECB staff March projections in the medium term. As for headline inflation, we continue to see it notably above target this year. We see it averaging 2.9%yoy in 2026, peaking at 3.2%yoy in Q2, and at 2.0%yoy in 2027, using our commodities team's latest baseline path for gas and oil prices.

With the conflict in the Middle East now extending beyond a month, its effects are increasingly being felt in Europe, where not only inflation but expectations on where prices are headed are picking up markedly.

As Bloomberg notes, individual countries saw mixed inflation results for March. In Italy, there was no uptick at all, with the reading unexpectedly coming in unchanged at 1.5%. French inflation quickened, but didn’t quite reach 2%. Germany and Spain, which reported numbers earlier, recorded more rapid price increases, of 2.8% and 3.3%. Further accelerations are expected and will only add to pressure on the ECB.

“The longer the war in Iran lasts and the more destructive it becomes, the greater the risk of inflation will be,” Slovakia’s Peter Kazimir said. “Consequently, the sooner and more decisively we’ll have to respond.”

Governments and central banks in Europe are also slashing their projections for economic growth, while firms are bracing for a hit to demand among their customers. 

The ECB says it won’t to allow a repeat of the inflation spike that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, vowing to act quickly and decisively as needed. But with no clarity on when the fighting will end, officials are still assessing the toll. Elevated oil and natural gas prices are already casting doubt on the ECB’s baseline outlook for inflation to average 2.6% this year. Under a more extreme outcome, price gains could peak at as high as 6.3% in 2027.

“Today we can say that the base-case scenario — for which assumptions were locked in on March 11 — can probably be considered to be the optimistic scenario,” Estonian central-bank chief Madis Muller said Tuesday in Tallinn. “We certainly can’t rule out changes in interest rates already in April if energy prices remain at a high level for a long time.”

Powerless to prevent the gyrations in energy markets, the ECB is instead focused on avoiding second-round effects including excessive increases in wages and selling prices. It’s also worried about knock-on effects to things like fertilizer and food prices that help shape households’ perceptions. 

A survey published Monday showed consumers’ inflation expectations surged in March, while firms also anticipate marking up their prices sharply. Market-based indicators have also already reacted. Long-dated inflation swaps jumped in the early days of the war, before paring much of the move as traders started to price rate hikes.

Croatian central-bank chief Boris Vujcic said views of faster inflation were “what we have expected,” while his Italian counterpart Fabio Panetta said it’s “essential to monitor expectations closely and to prevent a wage-price spiral, while ensuring that monetary-policy action remains proportionate.”

Their Bulgarian colleague Dimitar Radev argued that past inflation shocks have left a “durable imprint” on European consumers and highlighted that “developments that were previously perceived as external shocks are now feeding directly into inflation expectations, energy prices, financing conditions and broader confidence.”

In a speech text published Tuesday, he said risks to the inflation outlook “are not only elevated” but also “asymmetric and closely linked to geopolitical developments.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 11:20

Solar Stocks Surge As Energy Shock Revives Renewables Trade

Goldman analyst Adam Wijaya asked clients whether this year's surge in SolarEdge, Enphase Energy, and other solar stocks is reviving a familiar trade: higher crude oil and natural gas prices in Europe and globally, strengthening the case for renewables as the energy shock sparks a return to coal switching.

"Are we back to running the 2022 playbook?" Wijaya asked in a note published Monday.

Wijaya said, "Certainly seems that way based on recent px action in residential solar." 

"SEDG is +79% YTD vs ENPH +18% and RUN -32%... oil + gas prices moving higher in Europe/globally + coal switching coming into the equation begs the question 'do we start to see more renewables adoption in the EU given demand needs?'".

SolarEdge shares are up 64% year to date, broadly tracking Brent crude and the European natural gas benchmark. The logic behind the trade is that higher fossil fuel prices improve the economics of alternative energy.

"As we start getting closer to midterm elections – some specialists asking questions around the 'blue playbook'… ie which single stocks could have leverage to a policy shift in Energy focused on solar/wind/renewables."

Potentially stronger demand for renewables comes as the Hormuz crisis forces countries to rethink energy security. With some power grid operators likely to switch to coal to keep the lights on, the shock is also reviving the conversation around adding more solar and wind to diversify grid mix. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 10:55

"Price Collapse" Hits Memory Sticks As Hoarded Inventory Floods Market After Google's DeepSeek Moment

Following our "Google's DeepSeek Moment" report last week, which detailed how TurboQuant, a compression algorithm for large language models and vector search engines, could sharply reduce AI memory requirements and sparked a selloff in top memory stocks, a Taiwanese financial outlet is now reporting a plunge in memory stick prices this week.

Taiwan-based Economic Daily News reports that DDR5 memory stick prices have dropped by 15% to 30%, marking the first major price correction after a rally that began in early fall, as AI data center demand for memory ramped up. The correction comes as the market expects lower memory demand following the unveiling of Google's TurboQuant.

In the U.S., Amazon listings showed steep declines in DDR5 pricing. In mainland China, retailers described the move as a "price collapse," with 16GB DDR5 modules falling from about $145 to $101 and 32GB modules dropping from about $435 to $319, based on current exchange rates. Distributors said the price drop was driven by sellers dumping previously hoarded inventory.

Reporters Li Mengshan and Xie Shouzhen posted an infographic on price drops by region, which we have translated here:

United States

• Amazon Micron 32GB 6400MHz DDR5 module fell from a high of $490 to $379.99, a correction of nearly 30%.

• 16GB 5200MHz DDR5 module fell from $260 to $219.99, a decline of more than 15%.

Mainland China

• Local channel data shows mainstream 16GB DDR5 module prices recently fell to around RMB 700, a drop of about 30%.

• 32GB DDR5 module prices fell from RMB 3,000 to around RMB 2,200, a decline of about 27%.

• Prices for DDR4 and DDR5 on secondhand platforms have also fallen in tandem.

Taiwan manufacturers' view

• The DRAM uptrend has not yet peaked.

• Overall pricing momentum is still continuing.

• Original factory contract prices have not declined at all.

• "There is simply no need to worry."

"Industry insiders point out that this is the first significant price drop in recent months, and the simultaneous price adjustments across multiple platforms indicate that end-user demand is becoming more conservative under the pressure of high prices," the reporters said.

The report continued: "Industry insiders say that the current 'visible price drop' reflects a short-term correction in supply and demand and market sentiment, rather than a reversal in the industry's fundamentals."

There's growing speculation that OpenAI's Sam Altman soaked up the entire memory market with non-binding orders.

But now...

So Sam Altman blew up the memory market with non-binding DRAM orders of 40% of global supply and then changed his mind because Stargate can't get off the ground? $MU pic.twitter.com/ioe6PZN0S8

— investingLive (@investingLive_) March 30, 2026

Given the emerging theme of sliding memory stick prices, driven by TurboQuant and growing doubts that Altman’s Stargate will get off the ground, memory stocks are now hovering near critical support and trading at levels not seen since earlier this month and mid-January levels. 

More here. 

"On the memory side, what did not help were weekend datapoints pointing to DDR5 prices dropping, in some cases by as much as 30%, after the Google TurboQuant news. U.S. prices for 32GB 6400MHz DDR5 modules and China prices for mainstream 16GB DDR5 modules have both fallen around 30% from their peaks," a Goldman analyst wrote earlier today.

And remember, Korea’s Kospi has already slipped into a bear market amid the downdraft in memory names. It is all linked. 

More on memory stock charts via our technicians at The Market Ear (chartpack here).  

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 10:40

Job Openings Drop After Huge Upward Revision As Hires, Quits Unexpectedly Plunge To Six Year Low

A few weeks ago, the BLS reported that January job openings unexpectedly soared by 400K, the biggest increase since November 2024, to 6.946MM, the highest since last October. Well, it turns out the jump was even higher than that because moments ago, the BLS published the latest February print, and while that number came in line with estimates, at 6.882MM, or just shy of the 6.890MM estimate, it was a big drop from January, which was revised massively higher by another 300K to 7.240MM from 6.946MM. In other words, the January job openings surge after the revision was a massive 690K, the biggest one month increase since Sept 2022!

In this light the February print, while a drop from January, was still a solid improvement from the January five year low of 6.550 million.

According to the BLS, the number of job openings decreased in accommodation and food services (-211,000) and in mining and logging (-12,000). Declines were also observed in Construction, Manufacturing,Information, Finance, Private Education and Government; these were offset by modest increases in Professional and business services as well as  Other Services.

The silver lining: the collapse in government and federal job openings continues.

The sharp revision to January and then the extension of job opening declines in February meant that after almost reversing in January (-128K), February saw a surge in labor supply number as there were 689K fewer job openings than unemployed workers.

It also means that after rising back to 1.0x in January, in February the ratio of job openings to unemployed dropped back to 0.9x where it has been since last summer.

But while the job openings number was in line, previous month's revision gimmicks notwithstanding, the real surprise in this month's print was the number of Quits and Hires, both of which tumbled to 6 year lows. 

The number of hires decreased to 4.8 million (-498,000) in February and was down by 387,000 over the year. The hires rate decreased over the month to 3.1 percent. This was the lowest hires rate since April 2020 when it was also 3.1 percent.  In February, the number of hires decreased in accommodation and food services (-178,000) and in construction (-88,000). 

Since this number feeds directly into the payrolls calculations (after netting out separations) this explains why the March payrolls report was such a total disaster. 

As for quits, in February, the number of quits plunged by 157K to 2.974MM, the lowest since 2020, led by decreases in accommodation and food services (-119,000), wholesale trade (-35,000), and federal government (-6,000). Quits increased in nondurable goods manufacturing (+21,000). 

Overall, this was a messy JOLTS report and aside from the now revised away January spike, it confirms that the US labor market continues to deteriorate slowly with every passing month. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 10:33

Army Reviews Helicopter Flights Near Kid Rock's Home, Anti-Trump Protests

Authored by Kimberly Hayek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The U.S. Army has opened an administrative review of two AH-64 Apache helicopters that flew low near musician Kid Rock’s home and above an anti-Trump protest in Nashville over the weekend.

Two AH-64 Apache attack helicopters conduct flight operations in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility on Nov. 3, 2025. U.S. Army photo by Spc. Doniel Kennedy, via DVIDS

Kid Rock, whose real name is Robert James Ritchie, posted a video on X on March 28 showing the helicopters hovering alongside his outdoor swimming pool. In the clips, he claps, salutes, and raises a fist as the aircraft linger nearby before flying off. The 27,000-square-foot hillside mansion he calls the “Southern White House” sits in the Nashville area.

The Army has launched an “administrative review” into why two Apache attack helicopters performed a low-altitude maneuver in front of the Nashville, Tennessee, home of Kid Rock.

Martha Raddatz reports. pic.twitter.com/oGRtBykO4R

— Good Morning America (@GMA) March 31, 2026

“An administrative review ⁠is underway to assess the mission and verify compliance with regulations and airspace requirements,” U.S. Army ‌spokesperson Major Montrell Russell said in a statement sent to media outlets. “Appropriate action will be taken if any violations are found. Until the review is complete, there will ​be no further comment.”

The U.S. Army did not immediately return a request for comment.

“God Bless ​America and all those who have ​made ‌the ultimate sacrifice to defend her,” Rock commented above the video of the helicopters.

The same helicopters had flown earlier over a “No Kings” anti-Trump protest in downtown Nashville that day. Demonstrators had gathered to protest President Donald Trump’s policies.

Fort Campbell leadership initiated the probe after the videos spread online. No injuries or property damage were reported. The Army has not released additional details on the crews or exact mission orders.

Saturday’s “No Kings” rally reflected broader opposition to Trump administration policies, including immigration enforcement and the Iran war. Local authorities said thousands participated in the protest in Nashville. More than ‌3,200 events had been planned in all 50 states, after the two previous nationwide ⁠events attracted millions of participants.

The Army emphasized that Apache crews routinely conduct low-level training in the region to maintain readiness. Such routes are approved in advance through federal aviation channels. Still, the proximity to a high-profile private residence and a political demonstration prompted immediate command-level attention.

Kid Rock has maintained a public friendship with Trump for years, endorsing him in multiple campaigns and performing at related events. His Nashville-area estate has hosted high-profile visitors and become a symbol of the entertainer’s conservative leanings.

Military helicopter operations near civilian areas have drawn scrutiny in the past when they appear to intersect with political activity.

The ongoing administrative review will determine whether any policies were breached. The Army said it will update the public if disciplinary measures or procedural changes follow.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 10:25

Conference Board Confidence Unexpectedly Jumped Amid War In March

Despite war (and rising gas prices) now on respondents' minds (the survey period for preliminary results was March 1 to 24), it is perhaps surprising that The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence rose more than expected in March (from 91.0 to 91.8), considerably better than the 87.9 expected.

Even more intriguing, the Present Situation rose from 120.0 to 123.3 (118 exp) while Expectations fell from 72.0 to 70.9 (68.4 exp)

Source: Bloomberg

Among demographic groups, confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to moderate in March for consumers under age 35 and 55 and over, and virtually unchanged after a multi-month decline for those aged 35 to 54.

Respondents under 35 remain the most optimistic and those 55 and over the least.

On a six-month moving average basis, Generation Z remained the most confident among all generations, but their optimism slipped in March along with the Silent Generation, Baby Boomers, and Generation X.

Only Millennials cited improved confidence in the month. By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to dip in six of eight income groups.

Only consumers earning $25,000-34,999 and $125,000 and over were somewhat more optimistic.

Oddly, with the rise in optimism, inflation expectations surged higher...

Source: Bloomberg

And even more surprising, the weakening labor market trend continued...

Source: Bloomberg

“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds. As the war in Iran overlapped significantly with the survey sample period, comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked, while specific mentions of trade and tariffs decreased notably," noted Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

Consumer confidence by political affiliation was little changed.

Republicans remained the most optimistic, while confidence was substantially lower among Independents and the lowest among Democrats.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 10:14

No THAC0 Tuesday

By Michael Every of Rabobank

No TACO And No THAC0

The Global Daily yesterday noted lots of reasons to worry about this Gulf War 3 - today there are far more. However, as made clear since the start of this crisis, there is no way to say, “This is silly,” or to ‘go home’ and return to ‘normality’. Everyone in the war except the US *is* at home.

Israel is targeting Iran’s leaders and PM Netanyahu says the country is only “over halfway” to its war goals, with no timeline for ending the conflict. Key Gulf states are urging Trump to intensify the war, even as Trump may bill them for it. Iran’s parliament just passed a bill imposing tolls on Hormuz, seizing that key waterway, and is pressing Yemen’s Houthis to renew attacks on Red Sea shipping, which would massively exacerbate this crisis - Bloomberg warns of $140 oil if so; a disavowed report just said Egypt, who wants the war to end, warned the Houthis it would then attack them. The Iranian ambassador refused to leave Lebanon when ordered to by its government; and Iran just struck Israel’s oil refinery in Haifa, and a fully laden oil Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai. In short, the Middle East has its own agency.

The implications for the US in this war are also far beyond oil prices and the mid-terms: Trump’s ‘reverse perestroika’ and 21st century US hegemony may pivot on who wins. If the US wins, it de facto controls Middle East energy and can build a new architecture there. Yet financial press op-eds arguing for a ‘blueprint for Chinese global leadership’ could be right if the US loses - in which case everyone clinging to the flotsam and jetsam of the ‘rules-based order’ loses too.

Only if one starts with that strategic geopolitical imperative is Trump’s potential willingness to climb the escalatory ladder predictable, as is that there can’t be the ‘TACO’ markets want. That thinking underlines our geopolitical base case this war is largely over in 2-3 weeks, on favourable terms to the US – which is what Secretary of State Rubio just told the G7 too: but only after things get much worse first. If they get worse and stay there, so will the economic projections.

Notably, Trump has now warned the faction of the Iranian leadership he’s dealing with --reportedly led by parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf-- that if it won’t strike a deal soon that includes reopening Hormuz, the US will destroy Iran’s electricity network and energy before leaving. Yet Trump is also reportedly telling aides that he’s willing to leave Hormuz in the hands of a smashed regime. Either outcome would leave Iran, the Middle East, and probably the global energy system in structural chaos. Meanwhile, thousands of US army paratroopers and marines are close to positions around Iran, offering the US other strategic options: but to what end? Tehran? A uranium hunt? It seems logical. A bridgehead in Hormuz via its smaller islands? Perhaps so. The obvious, but dangerous, target of Kharg island and its oil facilities?

A key complaint, after no TACO, is that the US isn’t clear in its objectives: in the last 24 hours we’ve seen conflicting messages from Bessent, Trump, and Rubio over what the US is trying to do re: Hormuz. Yet here one has to raise another geostrategic point: why does the US have to say exactly what it intends to do? Voters and traders want to know, but the ‘fog of war’ is a critical advantage and Trump is a past master at misdirection. Yes, perhaps there isn’t a US plan, and markets would be wise to price in that uncertainty; but nobody in power is going to tell a journalist or analyst what their war plans are, just what they *want* them to hear and then tell others. For any D&D players reading, there is no THAC0 in war. (But those decision-makers may front-run their actions in markets, so keep your eyes open for those loaded dice.)

In energy, Brent was down at $111 this morning in Asia despite the Kuwaiti oil tanker being hit, with WTI at $102 and 1-month TTF gas at €54.8, while jet fuel in Singapore is at a new high of $233.5, showing more pressure there. European and African oil markets are getting tighter as Asia buys more to fill its supply gaps. Expect that to continue ahead.

In related news, the IMF warned the UK faces one of the biggest energy shocks; Brussels says Europeans should consider traveling less to avoid energy shortages; and a report has it that EU member states’ national fuel price measures are threatening to worsen the energy crisis; China is looking to restart US energy imports as it sees its position in aluminium and EVs strengthened; and Australia’s PM has stated that fuel rationing will only kick in at an “extraordinary” supply hit, without specifying what that is.

Re: uncertainty, Gulf War 3 is exponentially accelerating the evolution/devolution of the global system which was already ongoing.

Spain has closed its airspace to the US military over the war, widening a rift with it. Rubio has just stated that after this is all over, NATO must be “re-examined” – and he’s the US good cop. Don’t think comfortable plans for accelerated European military spending by 2035 will hold up if the US were to make as radical a move vs NATO (and/or Greenland) as it did vs Iran once the Middle East dust has settled. That’s for an EU where, as Politico notes, ‘Europe’s crisis tourism: how the Iran war swallowed the EU’s geopolitical agenda.’

In the US, there is a rush to shift to new defence systems, so cheap drones are not fought with million-dollar missiles. That will entail a major military-industrial structural shake-up, with lessons learned from Ukraine, whose prowess Germany’s Rheinmetall CEO was recently mocking.

The USTR says he now sees only a limited role for the WTO after its recent meeting in Cameroon failed to see any reforms: Politico notes, ‘As the WTO flounders, the world’s middle powers go their own way.’ The US is also pressuring the EU to join its AI chips ‘club’, as the EU is pushing the US to join it in a common 50% steel tariff vs. China. Does the dust eventually settle with EU-US cooperation or separation – and if so at what cost to both?

Meanwhile, in Australia the RBA minutes’ key line was: “it was not possible to predict the future path for the cash rate target with any confidence, given the high degree of uncertainty around the breadth and duration of the current conflict in the Middle East.” It added that the direct effect of oil prices remaining around $100 would on its own lift headline CPI to around 5% in Q2, 0.75% higher than expected in February, and sustained higher oil prices would boost inflation more broadly over time. A majority agreed further tightening in policy would likely be required in the near term, but a minority was already worrying about the ‘stag’ part of stagflation.

The RBA is right about the Middle East – and let’s repeat that one then has to look at that complex region through a broad geopolitical lens, not a narrow “because markets/elections” one that said this war wasn’t going to happen. Oh - and that today saw half a million young Aussie workers get up to 42% pay increase due to changes to minimum wage rates.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 09:55

Negative Equity Leaves 30% Of Car-Buyers Underwater On Trade‑Ins

Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times,

Almost one-third of American car buyers with a trade-in owe more than the vehicle is worth, new industry data show.

About 30.5 percent of buyers trading in a car toward a new vehicle maintained negative equity, according to a JD Power report released on March 26.

This is up 4.2 percentage points from a year ago and has been steadily rising since 2022, “as consumers who purchased during the peak of inventory shortages 4 years ago return to market,” says Thomas King, president of OEM solutions at JD Power.

“Regarding total consumer spending on new vehicles, the elevated transaction prices in March aren’t enough to offset the inflated sales pace a year ago,” King said. “Consumers are on track to spend $49.4 billion on new vehicles this month, 13.9 percent lower than a year ago.”

Growing auto debt has become a significant challenge in the current car climate, with many motorists enduring the consequences of their pandemic-era financial decisions.

Edmunds, a subsidiary of CarMax, reported in January that the average amount owed on underwater trade-ins during the fourth quarter was a record $7,214. Additionally, 27 percent carried $10,000 or more in negative equity—also an all-time high.

If a buyer trades in a vehicle with negative equity, the remaining balance is typically folded into the financing for their next car. That rollover effect, according to Edmunds data, has pushed the average monthly payment for these borrowers to an all‑time high of $916.

Many underwater trade-ins can be traced back to pandemic‑era loans. At the time, chip shortages slashed inventories and wiped out incentives. Buyers paid close to or above the Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price (MSRP)—the sticker price automakers recommend a dealer charge for a new car—and had limited ability to choose cheaper models.

Since leasing was limited, many drivers opted to purchase these vehicles with loans, incurring different financial costs. Years later, the loan balances surpassed the cars’ value.

The auto market—and the typical depreciation—has since stabilized. However, because these loans were originated during a period of elevated prices, they have matured into a market where vehicle values have normalized. That mismatch has widened the gap between purchase prices and current trade‑in values.

But a new threat has emerged in the U.S. auto market: ultra-long car loans.

The Seven-Year Loan

Kelley Blue Book figures reveal that car prices have accelerated over the past year. The average new-vehicle transaction price was firmly above $49,000—hovering near record levels—in February.

“Sales are no longer swinging wildly month to month, but growth is also harder to come by,” Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive, said in a March 25 note. “Affordability remains the central challenge for the industry, and that is limiting the market’s ability to expand beyond the mid-15-million range.”

Borrowing costs also remain elevated, with the average auto loan interest rate close to 7 percent.

Current conditions have forced car buyers to take on seven-year loans. An estimated 41 percent of new-car purchases involving negative equity are financed with 84-month loans.

It is unclear whether these numbers will lead to significant pressure on consumers. So far, the data indicate that buyers are not falling behind.

TransUnion says about 1.5 percent of auto loans are 60 days past due. The New York Fed reports that the share of loans in serious delinquency—90 days or more—stands at nearly 3 percent.

In total, Americans owe $1.7 trillion in auto loan debt, soaring 56 percent in the past decade.

While lenders take into account a wide array of factors to price interest rates—credit risk, consumer-loan dynamics, and funding costs—they also loosely track yields on Treasury securities, particularly the five-year government bond.

The five-year Treasury yield has spiked over the past month amid the war in Iran, reaching around 4 percent from its pre-conflict level of 3.5 percent.

In addition to high car prices and borrowing costs, drivers are also contending with increasing pain at the pump. The national average price for a gallon of gasoline is close to $4, according to the American Automobile Association.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/31/2026 - 09:35