Individual Economists

Woman Arrested, Charged After Threatening To Kill Trump

Zero Hedge -

Woman Arrested, Charged After Threatening To Kill Trump

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A woman who threatened to kill President Donald Trump has been arrested and charged, federal prosecutors announced on Aug. 18.

U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House on Aug. 18, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

I literally told FBI in five states today that I am willing to sacrificially kill this POTUS,” Jones wrote on Facebook on Aug. 6, in a post reviewed by The Epoch Times.

Jones, who said on Facebook she recently moved to New York, was charged with violating laws prohibiting threatening the president and issuing requests for ransom.

An affidavit supporting the charges, obtained by The Epoch Times, cited other posts from Jones on Facebook, including an Aug. 14 post in which she urged Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to “arrange the arrest and removal ceremony of POTUS Trump as a terrorist.”

Jones told Secret Service agents during an interview on Aug. 15 that she would kill Trump if she had the opportunity, according to court filings.

She also stated she wanted to “avenge” all the lives lost during the COVID-19 pandemic, which she attributed to Trump and his administration, the affidavit said.

The pandemic started in 2020. Trump was in office until early 2021, returning for a second term in January this year, after the pandemic had ended.

“The White House is thankful for our brave men and women in uniform who put their lives on the line every single day to protect the life of President Trump,” White House spokesman Davis Ingle told The Epoch Times in an email.

Jones was interviewed during a protest against the Trump administration outside the White House on Aug. 16. She told NewsNation that she opposed Trump’s deployment of National Guard personnel to deter crime in the nation’s capital and that “this regime has to go, the whole administration.”

Secret Service personnel later approached Jones, according to court documents. She admitted to threatening Trump and being the user of the account that issued threats, officials said. They arrested her.

Jones did not have an attorney listed on the court docket.

“Threatening the life of the President is one of the most serious crimes and one that will be met with swift and unwavering prosecution. Make no mistake—justice will be served,” U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro said in a statement. “We extend our deepest gratitude to our dedicated law enforcement partners, especially the Secret Service Special Agents from New York and Washington, D.C., for their tireless commitment to protecting our leaders and our nation.”

FBI official Matt McCool added that “protecting the President of the United States is our highest priority, and every potential threat is addressed with the utmost seriousness.” He said that agents “acted swiftly and decisively to neutralize this alleged threat before it could escalate.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 20:05

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales

Calculated Risk -

Mortgage Rates Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 226 thousand from 224 thousand last week.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for July from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 3.93 million last month. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.92 million SAAR for July.

Kremlin Makes Clear There Are No Zelensky-Putin Talks On Horizon

Zero Hedge -

Kremlin Makes Clear There Are No Zelensky-Putin Talks On Horizon

The Trump administration has, coming off the Friday and Monday Ukraine-related important summits, been touting that a direct Putin-Zelensky meeting will happen soon, likely in the coming days or weeks, but the Kremlin is now downplaying and contradicting this. 

No, there is no Putin-Zelensky meeting on the immediate horizon, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has made clear:

The Russian president told Trump on Monday that he was "open" to the idea of direct talks with Ukraine, but the next day Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov watered down that already vague commitment.

Any meeting would have to be prepared "gradually... starting with the expert level and thereafter going through all the required steps", he said, repeating a frequent noncommittal Kremlin line.

Dmitry Polyanskiy, a Russian deputy representative to the UN, told the BBC "nobody [had] rejected" the opportunity for direct talks, "but it shouldn't be a meeting for the sake of a meeting".

But despite the perhaps exaggerated US statements of where things actually stand, President Trump did admit Tuesday that it's a "tough one" and that "We're going to find out about President Putin in the next couple of weeks." He said, "It's possible that he doesn't want to make a deal."

Lavrov in his latest statements further clarified that during Monday's call with Trump, Putin only agreed to elevate the level of Russian representation in negotiations with Ukraine, and not to directly participate in a summit.

The top Russian diplomat emphasized that a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin would require extensive preparation and should take place only at the conclusion of the negotiation process, serving as its final step.

This has been Moscow's position all along - and practically speaking there would be no use in Putin showing up to such a meeting only to have Zelensky not budge on crucial conditions like territorial concessions or permanent neutrality regarding NATO.

BBC reviews that even the statements about imminent summits, but which clearly are no closer to coming to fruition, themselves are likely an extreme negotiating tactic. "It was reported that Putin had suggested to Trump that Zelensky could travel to Moscow for talks, something Ukraine was never likely to accept," BBC says.

"The proposal may have been Russia's way of putting forward an option so far-fetched Kyiv could not possibly have agreed to it," the report comments.

Countries like Switzerland have meanwhile begun offering that they could host such talks. Also, there are reports that Hungary or Turkey could also be potential venues. Belarus has also said it is willing to host.

Trump explained additionally on The Mark Levin Show on Tuesday evening, "I had a very successful meeting with President Zelensky and now I thought it would be better if they met without me, just to see - I want to see what goes on. You know, they had a hard relationship very bad, very bad relationship."

"And now we’ll see how they do," he added. And if necessary - and it probably would be - but if necessary, I’ll go and I’ll probably be able to get it closed. I just want to see what happens at the meeting. So they’re in the process of setting it up, and we’re going to see what happens."

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 17:20

Trump Orders Review Of 'Woke' Content In US Museums

Zero Hedge -

Trump Orders Review Of 'Woke' Content In US Museums

Authored by Savannah Hulsey Pointer via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump has instructed legal experts to review “woke” installations in museums nationwide.

According to an Aug. 19 post on Truth Social, the president believes that museums are the “last remaining segment of ‘WOKE,’” and he wants to address the issue the same way his administration has treated colleges and universities.

Trump pointed specifically to a Washington, D.C., icon as a demonstration of the issue, saying, “The Smithsonian is OUT OF CONTROL, where everything discussed is how horrible our Country is, how bad Slavery was, and how unaccomplished the downtrodden have been—Nothing about Success, nothing about Brightness, nothing about the Future.”

According to the president, his administration won’t allow the current trajectory to continue, and attorneys will “go through” the museums to “start the exact same process that has been done with Colleges and Universities,” where he said there has been substantial progress. 

“This Country cannot be WOKE, because WOKE IS BROKE,” Trump said. 

The president referenced the way his administration has reviewed the policies of major institutions of higher learning and, in some cases, withheld funding to those found to be allegedly in violation of federal policies.

The White House on Aug. 12 sent a letter to Smithsonian Institution Secretary Lonnie Bunch III, stating that the administration is conducting an internal review of portions of the Smithsonian museums and exhibitions to ensure that the content is in alignment with the president’s March executive order “Restoring Truth and Sanity to American History.”

The president said in the order that the Smithsonian, “once widely respected as a symbol of American excellence and a global icon of cultural achievement,” has “come under the influence of a divisive, race-centered ideology” in recent years and “has promoted narratives that portray American and Western values as inherently harmful and oppressive.”

“It is the policy of my Administration to restore Federal sites dedicated to history, including parks and museums, to solemn and uplifting public monuments that remind Americans of our extraordinary heritage, consistent progress toward becoming a more perfect Union, and unmatched record of advancing liberty, prosperity, and human flourishing,” Trump said in the order.

“Museums in our Nation’s capital should be places where individuals go to learn — not to be subjected to ideological indoctrination or divisive narratives that distort our shared history.”

The Epoch Times has reached out to the Smithsonian for comment.

The White House’s letter to the Smithsonian outlined what the Trump administration expects of the review, including an examination of websites and social media content, as well as educational materials put out by the institution. 

According to the White House, the information being offered by the Smithsonian and its related projects would be reviewed “to assess tone, historical framing, and alignment with American ideals.”

The letter stated that the review was meant to be a “constructive and collaborative effort” that was “rooted in respect for the Smithsonian’s vital mission and its extraordinary contributions.” 

“Our goal is not to interfere with the day-to-day operations of curators or staff, but rather to support a broader vision of excellence that highlights historically accurate, uplifting, and inclusive portrayals of American heritage.” 

The letter stated that museums slated to be reviewed include the National Museum of American History, National Museum of Natural History, National Museum of African American History and Culture, National Museum of the American Indian, National Air and Space Museum, and the National Portrait Gallery, among others. Additional museums will be added in a second phase.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 17:00

Big Mac Price Cuts Signal McDonald's Return To Value As QSR Battles Intensify

Zero Hedge -

Big Mac Price Cuts Signal McDonald's Return To Value As QSR Battles Intensify

The era of $18 Big Macs, which we called "Mcflation," ignited during the Biden-Harris regime years of generational-high inflation fueled by out-of-control green spending, looks to be ending.

A new internal memo obtained by The Wall Street Journal shows McDonald's will slash combo meal prices to drive increased foot traffic and restore its reputation as an affordable burger chain after the $18 Big Mac price shocked working-class and middle-class customers during the Biden-Harris years.

The burger chain will slash the price of eight combo meals by 15% and launch $5 breakfast and $8 Big Mac and McNugget specials later in the second half of the year. The new marketing campaign, focused on affordability, will be branded as "Extra Value Meals."

"Customers are telling us they need more of the everyday value and affordability that defines the McDonald's brand," said Joe Erlinger, head of McDonald's U.S. business, in an internal memo.

McDonald's told restaurant operators that it would subsidize them if they lost money under the new price strategy. The chain and operators will both contribute funds to advertising campaigns.

Here's why this new pricing strategy matters:

  • McDonald's is trying to repair its affordability image as cash-strapped consumers dial back fast food spending.

  • U.S. restaurant traffic is down 1.7% this year, and fast-food traffic specifically is off 2.7%.

  • While U.S. same-store sales grew last quarter, customer counts fell short of expectations.

McDonald's has spent the better part of a year rolling out new value menu items as price hikes in recent years shocked low-income consumers.

Earlier this month, the company's CFO highlighted one alarming trend among working-poor customers: they are "skipping a daypart like breakfast, trading down within our menu, or opting to eat at home."

In a note to clients, UBS analyst Dennis Geiger highlighted the widening gap between food away from home and food at home; in other words, eating at home is getting much cheaper.

The point here is that McDonald's is supercharging its value-driven strategy after more than a year of offering value meals, a move that will only spark continued price wars among rivals across the quick-serve restaurant space. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 14:40

She Thought That Her Computer Science Degree Would Get Her A Six Figure Job – Instead It Got Her An Interview With Chipotle

Zero Hedge -

She Thought That Her Computer Science Degree Would Get Her A Six Figure Job – Instead It Got Her An Interview With Chipotle

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

If you recently graduated from college, good luck trying to find a decent job. What we are experiencing right now reminds me so much of the early 1990s. If you were a new college graduate in those days, it was extremely difficult to even get an interview for a good job. Sadly, we are now entering a very similar environment. There is enormous competition for any good job that is available, and mass layoffs are occurring all over the nation. In fact, through the first 7 months of this year the number of job cut announcements in the U.S. was 75 percent higher than it was during the first 7 months of 2024.

I am not here to give people the Pollyanna version of what is going on. I am here to give people the truth.

21-year-old Manasi Mishra believed that if she worked really hard and got a computer science degree she would be able to get a six figure job at a big tech company.

Instead, the only thing her computer science degree has gotten her is an interview with Chipotle

Aspiring computer scientists are sinking in a job market overtaken by AI, as a recent graduate who expected to make six figures could only land an interview at Chipotle.

Manasi Mishra, 21, was under the impression that if she worked hard in school and mastered coding, she’d have a prestigious tech job with a cushy salary lined up straight from college.

‘The rhetoric was, if you just learned to code, work hard and get a computer science degree, you can get six figures for your starting salary,’ the San Roman, California native told The New York Times.

In case you are wondering, she did not actually get the job with Chipotle…

To her dismay, she did not secure the job.

‘Of course, the year I graduate is the year the tech industry goes downhill,’ she elaborated in the ‘get ready with me’ video.

If even the tech industry is going “downhill”, what does that say about the state of the overall economy?

At one time, it was fairly easy to get hired by Microsoft if you had certain skills.

But this year Microsoft has conducted multiple rounds of layoffs.  At this stage, the total number of workers that have been laid off has surpassed the 15,000 mark

Microsoft has laid off over 15,000 people so far in 2025. The stress of the belt-tightening has gotten to CEO Satya Nadella.

“Before anything else, I want to speak to what’s been weighing heavily on me, and what I know many of you are thinking about: the recent job eliminations,” Nadella wrote in a memo to employees Thursday.

It would be difficult to overstate just how dramatically the environment has shifted.

Young people that are searching for jobs are running into closed door after closed door, and as a result many of them are experiencing financial difficulties.

According to Fox Business, “nearly 10% of credit card balances held by Americans aged 18-29 became 90 or more days overdue in the second quarter”…

Young Americans continued to make up the largest share of those transitioning into credit card delinquency in the second quarter, according to a report released by the New York Federal Reserve.

Despite ticking down slightly from the previous quarter, the report showed that nearly 10% of credit card balances held by Americans aged 18-29 became 90 or more days overdue in the second quarter.

New York Fed researchers said credit card delinquency rates for Americans under 40 have been “unusually elevated,” adding they are keeping a “close eye” on the trend.

Credit card companies are going to become much more stingy in extending credit to young adults.

As you can imagine, that will not be good for our economy at all.

But this is the environment that we live in now.

One recent survey discovered that 62 percent of Gen Z adults “have no emergency savings at all”…

Your car breaks down on a Tuesday morning, and the repair bill comes to $500. If you’re part of Generation Z, there’s a good chance you have nothing set aside to cover it. A new survey from Credit One Bank reveals that 62% of Gen Z have no emergency savings at all, nearly double the rate of baby boomers. There’s a very clear widening gap in financial preparedness happening between generations.

Let that sink in.

Nearly two-thirds of an entire generation of Americans is living on the edge.

There will be some that will argue that they should just toughen up and take whatever they can get.

In the old days, if times were tough you could at least get a job as a delivery driver.

But now UPS is trying to rapidly shed existing workers by offering them buyouts

The undertaking, called the Driver Voluntary Separation Program, is the first in UPS’ history for delivery drivers. The financial incentive available through the program is in addition to earned retirement benefits like pension and healthcare, per UPS.

Word of the program spread on July 3, when the International Brotherhood of Teamsters union said UPS’ buyout plan was in motion. The Teamsters represent more than 300,000 UPS employees under a five-year contract reached in 2023.

Drivers that have literally been with UPS for decades are being encouraged to leave so that the company can cut labor costs…

About 85% of UPS drivers are at the top end of the pay scale. Those who have 25 to 40 years of service would be the most likely candidates to accept the buyout package, Nando Cesarone, president of the U.S. region and UPS Airlines, told analysts on the call.

UPS is offering $1,800 per year of service, with a minimum payout of $10,000. A driver with 27 years of experience would receive a $48,600 buyout, according to the offer sheet.

I wouldn’t want to be a new college graduate today.

If you get stuck in a bad job that is not in your field, it can permanently wreck your career.

I have seen it happen way too many times.

But getting hired for a good job has become an extremely challenging task.

In fact, one recent survey found that more than 60 percent of all Americans believe that it has “become more difficult to find a good paying job”

According to the poll, more than six out of 10 Americans said it had become more difficult to find a good paying job, buy a home and afford childcare.

More than four out of five Americans, 83%, said they were concerned about the cost of groceries, with 46% saying they were very concerned. Some 47% said they were worried about being able to pay their rent or mortgage, 64% said they were worried about affording an unexpected medical expense.

It is time to face the truth.

We really are in the midst of a substantial economic downturn that has been going on for quite some time.

Needless to say, I believe that the difficult times that we are experiencing now are not even worth comparing to what is eventually coming.

So we are all going to have to adjust our plans and our expectations.

The system that we have all depended upon for so long is failing, and we all need to start becoming a lot more self-sufficient.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 14:25

'Hawkish' FOMC Minutes Shows 'Majority' Fear Higher Inflation More Than Lower Employment

Zero Hedge -

'Hawkish' FOMC Minutes Shows 'Majority' Fear Higher Inflation More Than Lower Employment

Since the last 'dovish' FOMC statement (and Powell's post-statement 'hawkish' presser) on July 30th, we have had 'cool' payrolls print and 'hot' inflation prints with retail sales mixed... and now everyone is anticipating Friday's speech by Powell at Jackson Hole. So, maybe these Minutes will be a nothingburger...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, rate-cut expectations are higher...

Source: Bloomberg

...with September price-in as almost a done-deal for a cut...

Source: Bloomberg

Markets have generally gone nowhere in that time (except for crude prices, which have plunged on the heels of potential peace breaking out). Under the hood, there is some considerable pain in stock land (as momo and retail favorites have all suffered in recent days)

Source: Bloomberg

So, with two dissents (preferring to cut than hold), we anxiously await The Fed Minutes to see what Powell and his pals want us to know about the division within The (expensive) Eccles Building...

Key highlights from the Minutes:

The Minutes suggest members believe rates are not restrictive... 

Several Officials Said Current Rate May Not Be Far Above Neutral - Minutes

"Several participants commented that the current target range for the federal funds rate may not be far above its neutral level; among the considerations cited in support of this assessment was the likelihood that broader financial conditions were either neutral or supportive of stronger economic activity."

But clearly they are front and center terrified about inflation:

Many Noted Full Effect Of Tariffs Could Take Some Time

"Participants judged that considerable uncertainty remained about the timing, magnitude, and persistence of the effects of this year’s increase in tariffs. In terms of timing, many participants noted that it could take some time for the full effects of higher tariffs to be felt in consumer goods and services prices. Participants cited several contributors to this likely lag. These included the stockpiling of inventories in anticipation of higher tariffs; slow pass-through of input cost increases into final goods and services prices; gradual updating of contract prices; maintenance of firm–customer relationships; issues related to tariff collection; and still-ongoing trade negotiations."

Majority Saw Employment Risk Outweighed By Inflation Risk (remember this was prior to the payrolls revisions)

"Participants generally pointed to risks to both sides of the Committee’s dual mandate, emphasizing upside risk to inflation and downside risk to employment. A majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks, while several participants viewed the two risks as roughly balanced, and a couple of participants considered downside risk to employment the more salient risk."

Despite zero evidence of this (and in fact the opposite - remember the Japanese automakers)...

Several Expected Firms Would Pass Tariffs To Customers

"Several participants, drawing on information provided by business contacts or business surveys, expected that many companies would increasingly have to pass through tariff costs to end-customers over time. However, a few participants reported that business contacts and survey respondents described a mix of strategies as being undertaken to avoid fully passing on tariff costs to customers. Such strategies included negotiating with or switching suppliers, changing production processes, lowering profit margins, exerting more wage discipline, or exploiting cost-saving efficiency measures such as automation and new technologies."

"few participants observed that evidence so far suggested that foreign exporters were paying at most a modest part of the increased tariffs, implying that domestic businesses and consumers were predominantly bearing the tariff costs

Few participants stressed inability to pass through price increases

A few participants stressed that current demand conditions were limiting firms’ ability to pass tariff costs into prices. Regarding inflation persistence, a few participants emphasized that they expected higher tariffs to lead only to a one-time increase in the price level that would be realized over a reasonably contained period. A few participants remarked that tariff-related factors, including supply chain disruptions, could lead to stubbornly elevated inflation and that it may be difficult to disentangle tariff-related price increases from changes in underlying trend inflation

The future is scary...

Several Flagged Risk Of Inflation Expectations Unanchoring

"Participants noted that longer-term inflation expectations continued to be well anchored and that it was important that they remain so. Several participants emphasized that inflation had exceeded 2 percent for an extended period and that this experience increased the risk of longer-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored in the event of drawn-out effects of higher tariffs on inflation.

Does this look like its 'unanchored'?

But wait, there's more fearmongering... Several Noted Concerns About Elevated Asset Valuations (We are surprised only 'several' saw that?

"The staff provided an updated assessment of the stability of the U.S. financial system and, on balance, continued to characterize the system’s financial vulnerabilities as notable. The staff judged that asset valuation pressures were elevated. In equity markets, price-to-earnings ratios stood at the upper end of their historical distribution, while spreads on high-yield corporate bonds narrowed notably and were low relative to their historical distribution. Housing valuations edged down but remained elevated"

Some Stressed Interplay between Tariffs and monetary policy

"Some participants stressed that the issue of the persistence of tariff effects on inflation would depend importantly on the stance of monetary policy."

Some Expected Economic Activity To remains Solid

"Some participants noted that economic activity would nevertheless be supported by financial conditions, including elevated household net worth, and a couple of participants highlighted stable or low credit card delinquencies"

But, Several Saw Slowdown in the second half

"Participants observed that growth of economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, driven in large part by slower consumption growth and a decline in residential investment. Several participants stated that they expected growth in economic activity to remain low in the second half of this year."

Many talked about stablecoins

"Many participants discussed recent and prospective developments related to payment stablecoins and possible implications for the financial system. These participants noted that use of payment stablecoins might grow following the recent passage of the GENIUS Act (Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act). They remarked that payment stablecoins could help improve the efficiency of the payment system. They also observed that such stablecoins could increase the demand for the assets needed to back them, including Treasury securities. In addition, participants who commented raised concerns that stablecoins could have broader implications for the banking and financial systems as well as monetary policy implementation, and thus warranted close attention, including monitoring of the various assets used to back stablecoins."

Read the full Minutes below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 14:00

FOMC Minutes: "Committee might face difficult tradeoffs" regarding Unemployment and Inflation

Calculated Risk -

This is a little stale since this meeting was before the July employment report.

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 29–30, 2025. Excerpt:
n their discussion of inflation, many participants observed that overall inflation remained somewhat above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. Participants noted that tariff effects were becoming more apparent in the data, as indicated by recent increases in goods price inflation, while services price inflation had continued to slow. A couple of participants suggested that tariff effects were masking the underlying trend of inflation and, setting aside the tariff effects, inflation was close to target.

With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants generally expected inflation to increase in the near term. ...

In their evaluation of the risks and uncertainties associated with the economic outlook, participants judged that uncertainty about the economic outlook remained elevated, though several participants remarked that there had been some reduction in uncertainty regarding fiscal policy, immigration policy, or tariff policy. Participants generally pointed to risks to both sides of the Committee's dual mandate, emphasizing upside risk to inflation and downside risk to employment. A majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks, while several participants viewed the two risks as roughly balanced, and a couple of participants considered downside risk to employment the more salient risk. Regarding upside risks to inflation, participants pointed to the uncertain effects of tariffs and the possibility of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. In addition to tariff-induced risks, potential downside risks to employment mentioned by participants included a possible tightening of financial conditions due to a rise in risk premiums, a more substantial deterioration in the housing market, and the risk that the increased use of AI in the workplace may lower employment.

In their discussion of financial stability, participants who commented noted vulnerabilities to the financial system that they assessed warranted monitoring. ...

In discussing risk-management considerations that could bear on the outlook for monetary policy, participants generally agreed that the upside risk to inflation and the downside risk to employment remained elevated. Participants noted that, if this year's higher tariffs were to generate a larger-than-expected or a more-persistent-than-anticipated increase in inflation, or if medium- or longer-term inflation expectations were to increase notably, then it would be appropriate to maintain a more restrictive stance of monetary policy than would otherwise be the case, especially if labor market conditions remained solid. By contrast, if labor market conditions were to weaken materially or if inflation were to come down further and inflation expectations remained well anchored, then it would be appropriate to establish a less restrictive stance of monetary policy than would otherwise be the case. Participants noted that the Committee might face difficult tradeoffs if elevated inflation proved to be more persistent while the outlook for the labor market weakened.
emphasis added

Syria, Israel Hold Unprecedented US-Mediated Talks In Paris

Zero Hedge -

Syria, Israel Hold Unprecedented US-Mediated Talks In Paris

Via The Cradle

Syria has issued confirmation of a meeting between its foreign minister and a close confidante of Benjamin Netanyahu in Paris, marking the first official announcement of direct talks between Damascus and Tel Aviv. Earlier, reports had said Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani would meet with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer in Paris.

"Shaibani met today in the French capital, Paris, with an Israeli delegation to discuss several issues related to ‘enhancing stability’ in the region and southern Syria. Discussions focused on de-escalation and non-interference in Syria's internal affairs, reaching understandings that support stability in the region, monitoring the ceasefire in As-Suwayda Governorate, and reactivating the 1974 agreement," state news agency SANA reported on Tuesday. 

Image source: SANA

"These discussions are being held with US mediation as part of diplomatic efforts aimed at enhancing security and stability in Syria and preserving its unity and territorial integrity," it added. 

This was not the first meeting between Dermer and Shaibani. US envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, said on July 24 that he met in Paris with Syrian and Israeli officials for “dialogue and de-escalation.” Shaibani and Dermer were both visiting the French capital at the time. 

Barrack’s announcement came after the end of violent clashes between pro-government forces and local Syrian Druze factions in the southern city of Suwayda and its countryside, resulting in numerous civilian massacres.

Israel intervened with a series of violent airstrikes targeting Damascus and other areas in southern Syria, under the pretext of “protecting” the Druze minority. According to reports, Syrian-Israeli negotiations, which had been ongoing since the start of the year, resumed quickly after the attacks, following a brief pause.

Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government last year, Israeli forces have established a widespread military occupation across southern Syria.

Occupation forces continue to expand their presence in the country’s south, launching regular raids, incursions, and airstrikes. Israel says it wishes to demilitarize the entire south, protect the Druze minority from persecution, and prevent ‘hostile forces’ from establishing a presence.

Damascus has repeatedly signaled that it does not intend to pose a threat to Israel. Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has also reportedly held meetings with Israeli officials. 

A source told Syrian media last month that Sharaa held a meeting with Israel’s National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi in Abu Dhabi on July 7.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 12:25

DHS Secretary Says Southern Border Wall Will Be Painted Black To Deter Illegal Crossings

Zero Hedge -

DHS Secretary Says Southern Border Wall Will Be Painted Black To Deter Illegal Crossings

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Aug. 19 that President Donald Trump has requested that the entire wall along the U.S.-Mexico border be painted black in order to deter illegal crossings.

Speaking to reporters in New Mexico, Noem said the border wall is being built tall and extended deep underground to prevent any breaches, and the metal would be painted black to make it even more difficult to climb.

“That is specifically at the request of the president, who understands that in the hot temperatures down here, when something is painted black, it gets even warmer, and it will make it even harder for people to climb,” she said.

“So we are going to be painting the entire southern border wall black to make sure that we encourage individuals to not come into our country illegally, to not break our federal laws.”

Noem noted that cameras and sensors would be installed in the future to enhance security at the border, adding that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) also plans to build “water-borne infrastructure.”

“Construction right now is at the pace of a little bit less than a half a mile a day, and the border wall will look very different based on the topography and the geography of where it is built,” she added.

Noem did not provide details on the wall’s construction cost. The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law by Trump last month, allocated about $46.5 billion for the construction of a wall along the border with Mexico.

Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border after taking office for a second term on Jan. 20, directing the deployment of armed forces to assist with border security efforts.

Under the declaration, Noem and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth were ordered to take “all appropriate action” to construct more physical barriers along the border. Following that order, Noem issued a waiver in April that enabled the immediate construction of 2.5 miles of border in California. 

Trump has signed several executive actions aimed at deterring illegal immigration, including a memo authorizing the military to take control of land along the U.S.–Mexico border.

Data released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) last month shows that illegal border crossings fell to their lowest level in June, with no parole releases of illegal immigrants.

There were 25,228 total encounters nationwide in June, down from 29,478 the previous month, marking the lowest monthly total ever recorded by CBP, the agency stated.

Border Patrol apprehensions nationwide also dropped to a historic low, with 8,024 apprehensions recorded, compared with 10,357 in May, according to the agency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 11:45

DHS Secretary Says Southern Border Wall Will Be Painted Black To Deter Illegal Crossings

Zero Hedge -

DHS Secretary Says Southern Border Wall Will Be Painted Black To Deter Illegal Crossings

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Aug. 19 that President Donald Trump has requested that the entire wall along the U.S.-Mexico border be painted black in order to deter illegal crossings.

Speaking to reporters in New Mexico, Noem said the border wall is being built tall and extended deep underground to prevent any breaches, and the metal would be painted black to make it even more difficult to climb.

“That is specifically at the request of the president, who understands that in the hot temperatures down here, when something is painted black, it gets even warmer, and it will make it even harder for people to climb,” she said.

“So we are going to be painting the entire southern border wall black to make sure that we encourage individuals to not come into our country illegally, to not break our federal laws.”

Noem noted that cameras and sensors would be installed in the future to enhance security at the border, adding that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) also plans to build “water-borne infrastructure.”

“Construction right now is at the pace of a little bit less than a half a mile a day, and the border wall will look very different based on the topography and the geography of where it is built,” she added.

Noem did not provide details on the wall’s construction cost. The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law by Trump last month, allocated about $46.5 billion for the construction of a wall along the border with Mexico.

Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border after taking office for a second term on Jan. 20, directing the deployment of armed forces to assist with border security efforts.

Under the declaration, Noem and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth were ordered to take “all appropriate action” to construct more physical barriers along the border. Following that order, Noem issued a waiver in April that enabled the immediate construction of 2.5 miles of border in California. 

Trump has signed several executive actions aimed at deterring illegal immigration, including a memo authorizing the military to take control of land along the U.S.–Mexico border.

Data released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) last month shows that illegal border crossings fell to their lowest level in June, with no parole releases of illegal immigrants.

There were 25,228 total encounters nationwide in June, down from 29,478 the previous month, marking the lowest monthly total ever recorded by CBP, the agency stated.

Border Patrol apprehensions nationwide also dropped to a historic low, with 8,024 apprehensions recorded, compared with 10,357 in May, according to the agency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 11:45

AIA: "Business at architecture firms remains soft" in July

Calculated Risk -

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.

From the AIA: ABI July 2025: Business at architecture firms remains soft
The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month was below 50 for 31 out of the last 34 months, with a score of 46.2, as a majority of firms are still seeing declining billings. There are signs of hope ahead, as inquiries into new work grew slowly but steadily this month, following a brief three-month pause earlier this year. However, the value of newly signed design contracts at firms declined again in July, as firms continue to struggle to convert inquiries into contracts for new projects. This has been an issue for nearly as long as billings have been declining and reflects how soft business has been at many firms over the last two and a half years.

Billings continued to decline at firms in all regions of the country in July. Although conditions in the South looked like they were improving earlier this summer, the share of firms reporting a decline in billings increased this month. Billings remained softest at firms located in the Midwest for the third consecutive month. Business conditions continued to improve at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization this month, where there was nearly an equal share of firms reporting an increase in billings as reporting a decline for the second consecutive month. Firms with an institutional specialization also saw some encouraging signs, although business softened further at firms with a multifamily residential specialization in July.
...
The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months.
emphasis added
• Northeast (47.8); Midwest (45.1); South (47.5); West (46.4)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (49.9); institutional (47.9); multifamily residential (43.7)

AIA Architecture Billing Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 46.2 in July, down from 46.8 in June.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.
This index has indicated contraction for 31 of the last 34 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026.
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 36 consecutive months.  This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.

At the Money: Buying Your Own Jet

The Big Picture -

 

 

At The Money: What Does it Take to Buy Your Own Jet? (August 20, 2025)

Have you ever wondered what it was like to own your own private plane? It may not be as out of reach as you imagine. Sure, some people spend $50 million or more, but there is a plane for nearly every budget.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Preston Holland is the founder of Prestige Aircraft Finance and hosts a weekly Private Aviation Podcast, “The VIP Seat.” He writes the newsletter “Private Jet Insider,” providing advice and strategies to help clients navigate private aviation.

For more info, see:

Professional Bio

LinkedIn

Twitter

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

 

Intro: I wish that I could fly Into the sky So very high Just like a dragonfly I’d fly above the trees Over the seas In all degrees To anywhere I please Oh, I want to get away…

Have you ever wondered what it was like to own your own private plane? It may not be as outta reach as you imagine. Sure. Some people spend $50 million or more, but there’s a plane for nearly every budget.

Let’s speak with Preston Holland. He’s the founder of Prestige Aircraft Finance. He also hosts a weekly private aviation podcast called the VIP seat and his author of the newsletter, Private Jet Insider, which provides advice and strategies to help clients navigate private aviation.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s just keep it simple. Do I need to be a billionaire to own my own plane?

Preston Holland: You don’t need to be a billionaire and actually most of my clients are not billionaires.

In order to own an aircraft one that you’re gonna sit in the back. You’re going to have flown professionally for you, typically, what I’m seeing is a net worth of somewhere between a $100-$200 million as kind of the starting point. And so not only is net worth something to consider, but also what does this do for my tax strategy and tax planning? How am I going to use bonus depreciation to my benefit? There’s a lot of other things that come with this and what, how much cash flow does my business spin off?

But generally speaking, when we’re thinking about that, it’s, it’s really in the $100-200 million mark before you’re starting to buy something like a light jet or maybe a mid-size jet.

Barry Ritholtz:  There are a handful of watches you can buy in a handful of very specific sports cars that sell for more on the secondary market than MSRP. My assumption with Jets is that there’s depreciation in the used market, not appreciation. Is that a factor here, or do most of these jets go through the normal straight-line depreciation process, like a boat as the hours add up?

Preston Holland: The answer is generally yes to that. Let me add two caveats. One is COVID – and if you watch the valuation of aircraft between 2018, 2019, and 2021 – they appreciated significantly. There’s a lot of people that were selling their airplanes in 2021 for what they bought or more than what they bought. In 2018, 2019. General market trends definitely matters in this scenario.

But generally speaking, over a lifetime, there is a real depreciation factor you sell for less than what you bought it for.  And the only nuance to that is in a few make and models and in a very short period of time, post-delivery.

Right now, if you look at the overall ecosystem, I can think of off the top of my head three models in which that’s happening, and they’re driven by a few kind of different forces.

One is the Phenom 300. The Phenom 300 is an excellent light aircraft, and it is loved by charter operators. It’s loved by owners, and the contract price that you bought it for two years ago while you waited in line, oftentimes you can take possession of it and you flip it immediately and actually get a premium above and beyond. That market specifically, it’s happening a lot.

The Prater 500 and the Prater 600, which are also a rare product are experiencing similar but not quite as dramatic to that.

The Pilatus PC 12 market has experienced that over the last couple of years. The wait list for a Pilatus PC 12 is five years. Wow. If you wanted to buy a brand new PC 12 right now, and you got in line, you’d be waiting five years, and so for the first couple of years, you may be able to fly it for a little bit and then get out of it a little higher than what you have.

Barry Ritholtz: I imagine the range of private aircraft is very different from what I see in luxury automobiles. The sizes vary a lot. How many people they can carry, how far they can fly, how fast they can go. How broad are the ranges of private planes, and how big is the price range from small regional planes to cross-Atlantic type of jets?

Preston Holland: Let me start with the ratio of size to range. ’cause those two things actually play with each other.

You have light jets, which are usually really good for regional travel, so this is for people who are flying from Atlanta to Charleston. There are people flying from New York to Chicago, right? Not terribly far as the crow flies. Um, those light jets, you know, are not necessarily gonna do cross-country type activities, but they’re gonna be really good for that.

When you’re thinking about how much am I going to spend, there’s also a very wide range.

I would say, just to give you a really broad range — you’re kind of get in price for a jet, and this is, you’re talking pretty old, pretty small, it is gonna be around 1 million to $2 million.

The top end of the market is gonna be what Jeff Bezos just took delivery of which is a G700 at $75 million sticker, and it’s everything in between.

Barry Ritholtz: What are the other costs and responsibilities beyond the purchase price? What do people who purchase a plane need to think about and budget for?

Preston Holland: So the framework to think about this is the difference between fixed costs and variable costs. In the same way, if you’re gonna draw the boat analogy, whether you boat one day a year, or 365 days a year, there’s a certain set of costs. That are constant and you’re gonna have to pay them whether you use it a lot or you don’t use it.

We refer to those as fixed costs, right? So whenever you see somebody say, what’s the fixed cost of this airplane? That is typically crew expense. That is your pilot expense, that is your training expense ‘cause your pilots have to be trained in the aircraft. There’s aircraft management, which is you’re paying a company, a third party company to basically it’s a property manager for your jet. (That is the best comparison. It’s not a one for one comparison, but it’s pretty close).

The hangar cost, so very, you’re in New York. I’m sorry to break it to you, but hangar costs in your neck of the woods is very expensive, but hangar costs, you gotta pay it whether you’re, whether you’re flying the airplane or not; your insurance cost is gonna be a percentage of full value, liability, value, things like that.

And then there’s some other miscellaneous fees, there’s subscriptions, there’s NAV-aides, there’s things like that that fixed costs will range. In the kind of light jet world, 400 to $500,000 a year, and then when you get up into the large aircraft, you may have fixed costs north of a million dollars. If you have to have multiple captains for your aircraft, you’re flying a lot. Things like that.

Barry Ritholtz: What are the variable costs like?

Preston Holland: When you talk about variable costs, you touched on an important fact, which is the fuel.

There is Jet A Fuel, which is much more expensive than what you put into your car, and there are ways to mitigate that. You can get fuel contracts to get you a discount, but it kind of is what it is. You actually pay a lot of six, $7 a gallon, something like that, somewhere in there. Depends on what part of the country.

Barry Ritholtz: It can be as low as five and a half. It can be as high as eight and a half, like five and a half. I’ll put it into my cars. I mean, I’m, I’m okay with that. People don’t realize when you’re flying a jet, even regionally, you’re burning through hundreds of gallons, if not thousands of gallons of fuel. What is the hourly fuel cost for A mid-size jet?
Preston Holland: I actually, I have a tool, uh, that a friend of mine built is called AVI Cost. And, I use that to do all of my calculations. So the citation XLS, which burns 227 gallons per hour, you have the CJ four, which burns 198 gallons per hour. The Challenger 300, which burns 200. 80 gallons per hour.

Once you start getting up into your large aircraft, let’s say your Global 5,000, which is an aircraft that can easily do New York to London, it can do New York to Paris. Uh, you’re burning 490 gallons of fuel per hour. So it ranges significantly on how much fuel you’re burning.

There’s also in the fuel burn, it’s not a one-to-one, you’re not gonna save a lot of money, but if you’re going faster and burning more fuel, like there’s a coefficient there, sure there’s some math to do. But for instance, right, if we assume $6 and 25 cents per hour, the global 5,000 is burning $3,000 of fuel per hour. Where, where do we wanna travel?

Barry Ritholtz: New York, to LA.

Preston Holland: We’re gonna leave out of Teterboro Airport because we are not gonna deal with the Port Authority and we’re gonna go to John Wayne, which is SNA. Yep. ’cause we’re also not gonna deal with LAX. We’re gonna take four people with us.

We are gonna fly the global 5,000. It is 2100 miles nautical miles. It’s gonna take us 4 hours and 40 minutes approximately in the global 5,000. And we are going to have $7,000 of variable cost per hour. Our total trip variable cost is gonna be $38,281 to go from New York to la.

Barry Ritholtz: We’re talking about fuel costs. We haven’t talked about maintenance costs. If you’re flying a hundred hours a year and you have a jet, what can you expect in, in maintenance expenses, assuming nothing goes wrong?

Preston Holland: A lot of times maintenance is actually calculated on an hourly basis, so you’re buying into a program. There is not a direct correlation to this in the real world.

The closest it would be is to an insurance product, but you’re paying on a consumption basis. So let’s say I am signed up for a maintenance program, a maintenance platform. One of them is called JSSI (Jet Services Solutions Inc.) They have a 100% coverage for my engines. That’s going to amortize my overhaul costs, which can be a couple of million bucks.

That has to happen every 2,500 or 5,000 hours. It’s gonna amortize it on a per hour basis, so I pay per hour, I pay to the service, and then they pay my chunky maintenance bills. Those engine programs vary. Pretty significantly, depending on how much coverage.

You can also put coverage on the parts on the aircraft program called Pro Parts, where you’re paying an hourly cost and then they’re basically, they’re taking the other side of the bet that you’re gonna have less maintenance and you’re taking the front side of the bet that says, I’m gonna have a lot of maintenance and they’re gonna pay for it.

Barry Ritholtz:  Or just that I wanna have a fixed set of costs and don’t have to worry about the possible surprises and are willing to pay a little more upfront.

Preston Holland: Exactly, You’re, you’re willing to pay kind of stretched out over time as opposed to large chunks. So instead of paying your $2 million overhauls, you’re gonna pay, you know, let’s say a thousand, $2,000 per hour.

So generally speaking, if you were to amortize your maintenance expense over your hourly, which is typically how everybody calculates this on the global 5,000 that we’re talking about, is gonna be around $4,100 per hour.

Barry Ritholtz: Let talk a few minutes about jets. If you wanna go cross the Atlantic. What size jet are we talking about?

Preston Holland: Yeah, you’re gonna have to go into the large cabin range. You’re gonna be looking at. The Gulfstream G 450 to unlock kind of London. I think it’s gonna be on the fringe for Paris. The G 550 gets it with no problem. The Gulfstream G six 50, the Bombardier Global 5,000, 6,000, 6,500. (There’s a lot of numbers) and so that you, you’re really gonna have to get into that large cabin to comfortably get nonstop from New York to Paris.

And that’s gonna, you know, possibly have a flight attendant. It’s gonna have at least two pilots. You’re gonna have. At least one nice size restroom, maybe a small restroom in the front. Uh, so that’s really getting up into your larger cabin aircraft, but that’s really how you’re gonna be able to get transcontinental.

Barry Ritholtz: I recall a few years ago there was a commercial pilot shortage. I have a buddy who I grew up with who flies Detroit to South Korea, and he was telling me they just can’t find enough pilots. Does that same shortage of qualified pilots exist in private aviation as well?

Preston Holland: The pilot situation in in private and business aviation has undergone some similar pressures to what it has in commercial aviation.

The price has gone up. The, the price of pilots has gone up. The price of training has gone up. Just everything associated with the pilot has gone up. When you look at kind of the shortage, you have to remember that every pilot has to go through what’s called a type rating. And every pilot has to go through what’s called recurrent training.

So if you are qualified to fly the Gulfstream G six 50, you have gone through the initial training, the initial type training, and you keep that current because you have a client that is, you know, kind of running through, flying that aircraft.

And then you have one of his buddies that calls and says, Can you come fly my Global 5,000? You would have to go through the initial type training and do the recurrent training, right? Every pilot can only fly so many types of aircraft. And so as you look at kind of the quote unquote pilot shortage, which there’s a lot of debate in the industry whether it even exists or not. If you look at that, you have to look at type ratings.

Now, when you’re looking at buying an aircraft, one thing that I advise clients to do a lot of times is follow the big dogs. Okay? You’ve got the big dogs, which is Net Jets. They’re the largest Flex Jet, which is second largest Vista Jet, which is pretty large.  (There are a lot of the other operators)

If you follow their make model, kind of their fleet composition, they train so many pilots. I mean, to put into perspective for those that follow publicly traded companies.  Berkshire Hathaway owns NetJets and Flight Safety. They just reported an up quarter 8% revenue growth. NetJets owns its own training facility. That’s how much, that’s how many slots that they were buying in the training facility. So they will actually leak out pilots for people that are like, you know what, I don’t want to do the seven days on seven days off thing. So, you know, Phenom 300 pilots relatively easy to come by.

Barry Ritholtz: So someone’s thinking about buying a private jet and they’re saying to themselves, gee, this sounds like a lot of responsibility and a lot of costs, and maybe it’s a little out of their budget. How significant is fractional ownership to the experience of owning your own jet?

Preston Holland: So fractional is similar, um, but it sometimes from time to time will feel a bit more like chartering than owning your own aircraft. Now, every fractional contract has slightly different language in their contracts of what’s called callout hours.

I’m gonna come to New York. You and I are gonna go for a sushi dinner in la. I know this great spot. We’re gonna go out there if we wanted to leave in two hours. We are not guaranteed availability on a fractional if we wanna leave in 12 hours. So let’s say we wanna leave tomorrow morning, guaranteed availability, and sometimes they will be able to swing something through and actually get you there when you own an airplane.

It is waiting for you at the hangar, and you determine how close your pilots have to be so that if you wanna leave in 20 minutes, you can do so. Right? And so that is the biggest difference in the experience. The other piece is the hassle that comes with hiring pilots and managing stuff.

I have a lot of billionaire clients and billionaire friends. That say, look, I don’t wanna mess with this. I just want the easy button. Fractional is the easy button. Like at the end of the day, you’re paying somebody to deal with all the headache and you show up and you get on the airplane and you go, you’re not having to say, ah, well I, I’ve got pilot turnover. It really is the easy button, which is where that fills in the market. Not only can you save kind of on your gross cost, but even if you’re flying where it makes sense to fly private, you’re negating a lot of that stress.

Barry Ritholtz: So our last question, someone reaches out to you and says, Hey Preston, I’m thinking about buying my first plane. What sort of advice do you give to that person?

Preston Holland: Assemble a good transaction team. That is the number one thing that you have to do. Your transaction team typically looks like person number one is your broker. They’re gonna be your quarterback. It’s not dissimilar to buying a commercial property. They’re gonna find the aircraft, they’re gonna manage the process.

They’re gonna do all of your pre-buy inspections, everything like that. Two, your attorney is probably pretty good in house. They know nothing about FAA law. You need to get an aviation specific attorney. In the grand scheme of things, it’s gonna be similar pricing to any other specialized attorney, but it’s gonna make sure you, your in-house attorney is gonna pull their hair out, try to figure out how to do this, where the attorney aviation attorney’s gonna be easy. Third aviation tax consultant of some sort. A few different firms that specialize in aviation tax. Your CPA probably knows how to run your books and make sure that everything’s good. They don’t understand the concept of “truth in leasing” and subleases and “leasing between all of the known entities” and how do you not get flagged by the FAA to illegally charter? So get a tax consultant just to makes your life easier.

And the last one is a financier. So that’s what my firm does. If you’re paying cash, we’re not necessarily in the equation, but if you’re, if you’re gonna finance your aircraft. You may call your bank and they may do it for you. They may not some of the larger banks don’t necessarily want to do older aircraft or smaller aircraft, and so then you’re kind of left wondering, what am I gonna do? How am I gonna finance this?

We basically run an RFP process for you and make sure that we can kind of drive your rate down, stretch out your amortization, drive your down payment down, whatever your goals are. We work with family offices, CFOs to make sure that the proper leverage amount at the right cost is put on the aircraft for whatever your goals are.

Barry Ritholtz:  Hey, you could save money with fractional ownership or with jet memberships, but for some people, the only way to go is by owning their own private aircraft.

I’m Barry Ritholtz, and you are listening to Bloomberg’s At the Money.

Outro: I want to get away I want to get away I want to get away I want to get away Yeah

 

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At the Money: Buying Your Own Jet appeared first on The Big Picture.

In Live CNBC Audition, Jefferies' Zervos Says Fed Not Independent, Powell Left-Leaning

Zero Hedge -

In Live CNBC Audition, Jefferies' Zervos Says Fed Not Independent, Powell Left-Leaning

David Zervos, the Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, has garnered significant attention as a potential candidate for the role of Federal Reserve Chair, amid increasing activity on prediction markets. 

This morning he placed his flag firmly in the ground as a front-runner and most assuredly got President Trump's attention when he said during a CNBC interview that it's inaccurate to describe the US central bank as independent, and moreover, 'Wall Street Jesus' (as he has been called given his hirsute characteristics) described the outgoing Fed chief as aligned with the political left.

“The Fed has never been independent, and the political pressures on the Fed have always been growing and continue to grow,” Zervos said on CNBC.

He then went further:

“I think he’s actually quite a bit dependent,” Zervos said of Powell.

“He’s operating politically from the left. Or, let’s put it this way, from the anti-Trump side.”

He highlighted pressure from Democratic lawmakers in recent years on monetary policymakers to lower interest rates.

History features episodes of Treasury secretaries and administrations “behind the scenes” trying to influence Fed chairs, Zervos also said.

Watch the full exchange here (with Andrew Ross Sorkin unable to contain his own 'independence')...

The Jefferies strategist is no stranger to the limelight as some may remember he refused to cut his hair until Fed Chair Powell cut interest rates...

...which he did in 2019...

After which appears to have discovered Ozempic (picture here with Kellyanne Conway who he reportedly dated for a time)...

Zervos' odds are on the rise across prediction markets with PolyMarket seeing a big spike yesterday and now Zervos is up to the 3rd place...

Zervos also repeated his argument that the steady contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet in recent years has left monetary policy more restrictive than many perceive - adding to the case for lowering rates.

“You’re left now with rates at a much more restrictive rate, without that extra kicker from the balance sheet,” Zervos said.

“So we really need to get rates back toward a more neutral level.”

Music to President Trump's ears...

Professional subscribers can read David's full recent notes here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 11:10

In Live CNBC Audition, Jefferies' Zervos Says Fed Not Independent, Powell Left-Leaning

Zero Hedge -

In Live CNBC Audition, Jefferies' Zervos Says Fed Not Independent, Powell Left-Leaning

David Zervos, the Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, has garnered significant attention as a potential candidate for the role of Federal Reserve Chair, amid increasing activity on prediction markets. 

This morning he placed his flag firmly in the ground as a front-runner and most assuredly got President Trump's attention when he said during a CNBC interview that it's inaccurate to describe the US central bank as independent, and moreover, 'Wall Street Jesus' (as he has been called given his hirsute characteristics) described the outgoing Fed chief as aligned with the political left.

“The Fed has never been independent, and the political pressures on the Fed have always been growing and continue to grow,” Zervos said on CNBC.

He then went further:

“I think he’s actually quite a bit dependent,” Zervos said of Powell.

“He’s operating politically from the left. Or, let’s put it this way, from the anti-Trump side.”

He highlighted pressure from Democratic lawmakers in recent years on monetary policymakers to lower interest rates.

History features episodes of Treasury secretaries and administrations “behind the scenes” trying to influence Fed chairs, Zervos also said.

Watch the full exchange here (with Andrew Ross Sorkin unable to contain his own 'independence')...

The Jefferies strategist is no stranger to the limelight as some may remember he refused to cut his hair until Fed Chair Powell cut interest rates...

...which he did in 2019...

After which appears to have discovered Ozempic (picture here with Kellyanne Conway who he reportedly dated for a time)...

Zervos' odds are on the rise across prediction markets with PolyMarket seeing a big spike yesterday and now Zervos is up to the 3rd place...

Zervos also repeated his argument that the steady contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet in recent years has left monetary policy more restrictive than many perceive - adding to the case for lowering rates.

“You’re left now with rates at a much more restrictive rate, without that extra kicker from the balance sheet,” Zervos said.

“So we really need to get rates back toward a more neutral level.”

Music to President Trump's ears...

Professional subscribers can read David's full recent notes here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 11:10

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises

Zero Hedge -

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises

Oil prices are higher this morning, bucking a broadly risk-off sentiment across markets, following API's report overnight showing US crude stockpiles declined last week, while traders assessed negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“Focus is gradually shifting back towards fundamentals,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.

Declining US inventories in EIA data later “could lend support, as many fear a significant inventory build in the coming quarters.”

The drop shows summer demand remains solid even as supply is on the rise.

Investors are watching on progress toward a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine following a series of high-level talks brokered by President Donald Trump.

"The latest series of meetings aimed at brokering peace in Ukraine was also weighed by financial markets, but had a more pronounced impact on oil. Intense talks about ending hostilities, however elusive, raised the spectre of Russia re-entering the international market. That was until overnight, as Russia, based on comments from its foreign minister, appears less than enthusiastic about a meeting with the Ukrainian leader, a prerequisite for any potential peace," PVM Oil Associates noted.

Any eventual peace deal could lead to fewer restrictions on Russia’s crude exports, although Moscow has largely kept its oil flowing despite an array of sanctions.

API

  • Crude -2.4mm (-1.2mm exp)

  • Cushing

  • Gasoline +1mm

  • Distillates +500k

DOE

  • Crude -6.01mm (biggest draw since June)

  • Cushing +419k

  • Gasoline -2.72mm

  • Distillates +2.34mm

Official data confirmed API's reported drawdown in crude stocks (but far larger at over 6mm barrels - the biggest draw since the start of June). Stocks at the Cushing Hub rose for the 7th straight week while Gasoline inventories fell for the 5th straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite another 223k barrel addition to the SPR, total US crude commercial stocks fell significantly...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production edged higher as the rig count stabilized its declining trend...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding gains after the big crude draw...

Source: Bloomberg

The longer-term outlook for the oil market looks bearish, with expectations for a glut later in 2025 as OPEC+ returns barrels and as Trump’s trade policies spark concerns about demand. Futures are down more than 10% this year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 10:38

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises

Zero Hedge -

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises

Oil prices are higher this morning, bucking a broadly risk-off sentiment across markets, following API's report overnight showing US crude stockpiles declined last week, while traders assessed negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“Focus is gradually shifting back towards fundamentals,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.

Declining US inventories in EIA data later “could lend support, as many fear a significant inventory build in the coming quarters.”

The drop shows summer demand remains solid even as supply is on the rise.

Investors are watching on progress toward a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine following a series of high-level talks brokered by President Donald Trump.

"The latest series of meetings aimed at brokering peace in Ukraine was also weighed by financial markets, but had a more pronounced impact on oil. Intense talks about ending hostilities, however elusive, raised the spectre of Russia re-entering the international market. That was until overnight, as Russia, based on comments from its foreign minister, appears less than enthusiastic about a meeting with the Ukrainian leader, a prerequisite for any potential peace," PVM Oil Associates noted.

Any eventual peace deal could lead to fewer restrictions on Russia’s crude exports, although Moscow has largely kept its oil flowing despite an array of sanctions.

API

  • Crude -2.4mm (-1.2mm exp)

  • Cushing

  • Gasoline +1mm

  • Distillates +500k

DOE

  • Crude -6.01mm (biggest draw since June)

  • Cushing +419k

  • Gasoline -2.72mm

  • Distillates +2.34mm

Official data confirmed API's reported drawdown in crude stocks (but far larger at over 6mm barrels - the biggest draw since the start of June). Stocks at the Cushing Hub rose for the 7th straight week while Gasoline inventories fell for the 5th straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite another 223k barrel addition to the SPR, total US crude commercial stocks fell significantly...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production edged higher as the rig count stabilized its declining trend...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding gains after the big crude draw...

Source: Bloomberg

The longer-term outlook for the oil market looks bearish, with expectations for a glut later in 2025 as OPEC+ returns barrels and as Trump’s trade policies spark concerns about demand. Futures are down more than 10% this year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 10:38

California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 4th Straight Month

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 4th Straight Month

A brief excerpt:
The NAR is scheduled to release July Existing Home sales on Thursday, August 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 3.93 million last month. Last year, the NAR reported sales in July 2024 at 3.98 million SAAR. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.92 million SAAR.

California reports Seasonally Adjusted (SA) sales and some measures of inventory whereas most of the local is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales trail last year’s levels for fourth straight month, C.A.R. says
July home sales activity dipped 1.0 percent from the 264,400 homes sold in June and was down 4.1 percent from a year ago, when 272,990 homes were sold on an annualized basis.
The NAR’s July existing home sales report will likely show a 3-handle (be under 4 million SAAR) for the 2nd consecutive month.
There is much more in the article.

American Academy Of Pediatrics Pushes COVID-19 Vax For All Infants

Zero Hedge -

American Academy Of Pediatrics Pushes COVID-19 Vax For All Infants

In stark contrast to reality, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) - which is heavily funded by pharmaceutical companies, recommended on Tuesday that young children, including infants, receive the COVID-19 vaccine despite the fact that children are minimally impacted by the virus, the fact that the vaccine doesn't prevent one from contracting it, and that it largely only helps the elderly and medically fragile from severe cases.

A 1-year-old child receives a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination in Seattle, Wash., on June 21, 2022. David Ryder/Getty Images

According to the organization, all children ages 6-23 months should receive the COVID-19 vaccine - regardless of whether they have natural immunity from prior infection, unless they have a contraindication such as a history of severe allergic reaction to a vaccine ingredient. 

While the recommendation is universal, the group said in a statement that their recommendation stems from infants and other children who are "at high risk for severe COVID-19."

As the Epoch Times notes further, the organization pointed, in part, to a paper it published that found that among children hospitalized for COVID-19 from fall 2022 to spring 2024, the majority of those younger than 2 had no underlying conditions.

Of note, the paper cited surveyed 2,490 children who were hospitalized with COVID-19, effectively a rounding error. 

A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services, the CDC’s parent agency, told The Epoch Times in an email that the AAP, which receives funding from vaccine manufacturers, should strengthen its conflict-of-interest safeguards.

“By bypassing the CDC’s advisory process and freelancing its own recommendations, while smearing those who demand accountability, the AAP is putting commercial interests ahead of public health and politics above America’s children,” Andrew Nixon, the spokesman, said.

The CDC used to recommend that all children, except for those younger than 6 months, receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

In May, under orders from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the CDC stopped recommending the vaccine for healthy children and pregnant women.

The CDC’s schedule currently states that children with moderately or severely compromised immune systems should receive a vaccine, even if they’ve been vaccinated before.

Children who do not have weakened immune systems “may receive COVID-19 vaccination, informed by the clinical judgment of a healthcare provider and personal preference and circumstances,” the schedule states.

“There’s no evidence healthy kids need it today, and most countries have stopped recommending it for children,” Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary said when the schedule was changed.

Many countries, including the UK and Australia, no longer recommend COVID-19 vaccines for most or all children.

The AAP, which previously recommended COVID-19 vaccination for all children 6 months and older, now advises the vaccine for people ages 2 to 18 who meet one of four criteria: they are at high risk of severe illness, live in crowded settings such as long-term care facilities, have never been vaccinated against COVID-19, or live with someone at high risk.

Children who do not fall into any of those categories are not advised to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. At the same time, if a parent or guardian wishes, the child “should be offered” a single dose, according to the recommendations.

“The AAP will continue to provide recommendations for immunizations that are rooted in science and are in the best interest of the health of infants, children and adolescents,” Dr. Susan Kressly, AAP’s president, said in a statement.

AAP has about 67,000 members, including pediatricians, in the United States and other countries. Its funders include Pfizer and Moderna, which manufacture two of the three COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States.

Insurance Coverage

After the government narrowed its recommendations for COVID-19 vaccines, the AAP and some other organizations said they were worried that insurers would stop covering vaccines for children and pregnant women.

Many insurers, as well as Medicaid and Medicare, are required to cover vaccines in the CDC’s schedule.

“As we navigate an evolving health care landscape, maintaining robust immunization coverage continues to be a top priority for protecting both individual and community health,” AHIP, a trade group for insurers, said in a joint statement after the COVID-19 vaccine recommendations were changed.

“We are committed to ongoing coverage of vaccines to ensure access and affordability for this respiratory virus season. We encourage all Americans to talk to their health care provider about vaccines.”

Kressly said on Tuesday that the AAP is urging insurers to cover the vaccines in the organization’s schedule.

AAP is committed to working with our partners at the local, state and federal levels to make sure every child, in every community has access to vaccines,” she said.

Some states have maintained universal COVID-19 vaccine recommendations.

Other critics of the CDC’s updated schedule also plan on releasing their own recommendations.

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, for instance, said it will release recommendations on maternal immunizations at the end of the summer in collaboration with the Vaccine Integrity Project, an effort established this year by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy and led by Dr. Michael Osterholm, a former adviser to President Joe Biden.

The project has a presentation scheduled for Aug. 19 titled “From Data to Decisions: The Evidence Base for 2025 Fall/Winter Immunizations.”

Influenza Recommendations

The AAP’s recommendations largely align with the CDC’s recommendations when it comes to influenza vaccination.

Both advise one or two doses annually starting at 6 months of age, with a transition to one dose annually starting around age 11.

The CDC, though, only recommends influenza vaccines that are free of thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative.

The CDC’s vaccine advisory committee told the agency over the summer it should issue a recommendation against thimerosal-containing flu vaccines. Kennedy accepted the recommendation in July.

Advisers and Kennedy said they wanted to act to prevent mercury accumulation in children. Studies have found links between thimerosal and health problems, such as a paper that found an association between thimerosal exposure and tics.

The AAP was among the groups that opposed the move, stating that there were no health concerns with the amount of mercury present in the vaccines.

The organization said in a policy statement that it recommends “any licensed influenza vaccine product appropriate for age and health status and does not prefer one product over another.” It said that “influenza vaccination should not be delayed to obtain a specific product, including a thimerosal-free product.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 10:20

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