Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.1% week-over-week.
Inventory is now up 37.7% from the seasonal bottom in January.   Usually, inventory is up about 22% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 was a larger than normal increase in inventory.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 23.2% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 24.0%), and down 9.9% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 10.1%). 
Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more than half of that gap, and it appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels at the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of August 15th, inventory was at 860 thousand (7-day average), compared to 859 thousand the prior week. 
Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

Trump Vows Social Security Will Thrive For Another '90 Years'

Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics,

Nearly a century removed, President Donald Trump heralded his Democratic predecessor FDR for “one of the most significant pieces of legislation ever signed into law,” the bill that created Social Security.

The program turned 90 this month. Without reform, its 100th anniversary is not guaranteed.

President Trump still heralded FDR for the program, created at the height of the Great Depression, and vowed in the Oval Office to preserve and improve it “for 90 years and beyond.” The president said this was his “sacred pledge to our seniors.” Had he not returned to the White House, Trump boasted, “Social Security was going to be destroyed.”

And true to his word, Trump has not meddled with senior benefits. His marquee legislation has, in fact, reduced their tax burden by making Social Security benefits tax-free. But the actuarial tables are less rosy than the president put on in front of the cameras.

According to new estimates from the program’s chief actuary, Karen Glenn, Social Security will not make it to its 100th birthday as things stand. Instead, the trust fund will be insolvent in just seven years. Money was expected to run out by the first quarter of 2033, but after the One Big Beautiful Bill became law and made benefits tax-free, that forecast was moved up slightly to the fourth quarter of 2032.

At that point, according to analysis by the Congressional Research Service, the federal government would have three options at the point: increase taxes, decrease benefits, or a combination of the two.

Trump, who will have joined the ranks of former presidents by then, seemed unconcerned with those predictions. “You keep hearing stories that ‘in six years, seven years, Social Security will be gone,’” he told reporters, “and it will be if the Democrats ever get involved because they don’t know what they’re doing.” So long as his party is in control, he promised, “it’s going to be around a long time with us.”

Despite accusations from the left, Republicans have been unwilling to touch the program despite the flashing fiscal warning lights. A political football during campaign season, the popular entitlement is an entrenched third rail on Capitol Hill.

The financial troubles of Social Security are not new. They have worsened through both Republican and Democratic administrations alike. Every single report published by the Social Security trustees since 1983, as the liberal Brookings Institution notes, has found that the program faces a shortfall. Confronting that fiscal cliff was once conservative orthodoxy.

Former President George W. Bush warned that Social Security was “headed toward bankruptcy.” Betting much of his legacy on the reform, the Republican proposed partial privatization and a provision allowing citizens to divert some of their taxes into investments. Ultimately, it was stillborn and never even received a vote in Congress. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney later proposed more modest reforms while running for president, like increasing the retirement age and reducing benefits for the wealthy, only to be pilloried on the campaign trail.

Despite warnings from Elon Musk, who described Social Security as “the biggest Ponzi scheme of all time” while still a member of the administration, Trump has shown no appetite for overhauling the program in its entirety. His administration has instead focused on making the bureaucracy more efficient while rooting out waste, fraud, and abuse.

Social Security Administrator Frank Bisignano has been at the helm of the agency for less than three months and arrived at the White House eager to give a report.

Customer service has improved; the average wait time is down from 30 minutes to six. New technology has gone live; seniors can now access information 24//7 online about their benefits. The backlog of disability claims has been reduced by 26% and 3.1 million payments were sent to beneficiaries months ahead of schedule.

To the delight of the president, more than a quarter of a million illegal immigrants have been removed from the system, and millions over the age of 100 have been removed from the rolls, though it is unclear if a majority of those deceased centenarians were still receiving payments.

After the modernization efforts are complete and fraud is addressed, Bisignano told reporters, “When we do all that, then we’ll really know the answer to if we have a hole.”

Some experts find that kind of assessment overoptimistic and stress that fraud is already comparatively rare in Social Security. “There is always room for improvement, especially when it comes to the disability program,” the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget concluded in a recent paper, “but fraud and abuse are rare in the Social Security program – certainly not large enough to make a significant difference in the program’s finances.”

A spokesperson for the Social Security Administration told RealClearPolitics that ensuring the long-term health of the trust fund remains “a top priority” and that Bisignano is committed to working with Congress, the White House, and other stakeholders to strengthen the program.

“During the Oval Office event today,” the spokesperson continued, “Commissioner Bisignano detailed some of the ways SSA is working to tackle waste, fraud, and abuse under President Trump’s leadership to ensure that the program can continue to thrive for the next 90 years.”

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 07:45

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• Powell’s Last Stand: His Legacy and the Fed’s Independence Are on the Line at Jackson Hole: The Fed chair’s speech at the annual summit next week may very well be the defining moment of his career. (Barron’s)

• Do You Need to Own a House? Many Older Americans Decide They Don’t: Rising property tax, insurance and home-repair costs are prompting some people 55 and older to consider renting. (Wall Street Journal) see also A $340 Million New York Office Makeover Is Converting Boardrooms to Bedrooms: The city’s embrace of adaptive reuse projects is providing much-needed housing stock. (Businessweek)

• Why Hands-Off Investing Pays Off: Put money into low-cost stock and bond funds, but don’t forget the rest of the recipe: Leave your investments alone. (New York Times)

• How Disney Learned to Love Its Adult Superfans: From bespoke merch to adults-only lounges, the happiest place on earth increasingly caters to a subculture of loyal grown-ups. (Bloomberg)

• The Condo Market Is Floundering: Four Charts That Explain the Downturn: Condo prices fell 1.4%, marking the softest condo market since 2012, while single-family home prices remain high. Prices are declining and supply increasing, as new safety regulations and rising insurance premiums in Florida are contributing to waning buyer interest in condos. (Wall Street Journal)

• The Bogumil Baranowski interview: “Treat everyone with care” The investment advisor and host of the Talking Billions podcast explores childhood curiosity, building networks through kindness, and more. (Big Think)

• Thank You for Finding Me: Reuniting With a Stranger. As a teenager, I met a stranger who changed the course of my life. Twenty years later, I went looking for him. (Longreads)

• Golf Carts Have Taken Over Suburbia. Cue the Resistance. Demand for street legal carts is surging despite complaints from drivers; ‘We all hate you.’ (Wall Street Journal)

• The only actor who’s been in ‘Hamilton’ the whole time is still having a blast: Thayne Jasperson has starred in the Broadway musical phenomenon for 10 years — so long that he practically lives at the theater. (Washington Post)

• When Reggae Went Digital: A new reissue marks the 40th anniversary of “Under Me Sleng Teng,” considered one of dancehall’s first digital songs and, with over 500 versions, among the most recycled. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Deven Parekh, Managing Director, Insight Partners, a global venture capital and private equity firm. He has made 140 investments in enterprise software, data &, consumer internet businesses in N. America, EU, India, Southeast Asia, Israel, Africa, Latin America, and Australia. He was named to CB Insights’ Top 100 Venture Capitalists.

 

Wellbeing Falls in Northern America, Western Europe and Australia and New Zealand, Rises in Most Other Regions

Source: Gallup

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Europe's New War Economy: From Green Collapse To Military Keynesianism

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

While the green pseudo-economy drags the broader economy into the basement, two-thirds of Germans say they are satisfied with renewable energy or even want to see it expanded more rapidly. Meanwhile, the construction of a European war economy marks the next stage in Europe’s ongoing impoverishment.

The most popular yet most destructive economic strategy remains the modern interpretation of Keynesianism. With his oversimplified view of economic activity, the British economist John Maynard Keynes inadvertently handed postwar politicians a toolkit that they later perverted into an all-purpose “solution” for every economic crisis. The condensed version reads as follows: nearly every recession stems from a demand shortfall by consumers. The state’s job, therefore, is to create artificial credit to fill this demand gap.

Recipe for Bureaucratic Expansion

Lower interest rates, print credit, and—so the fairy tale goes—the economy takes off. In reality, what remains is a mountain of state debt, a swelling bureaucracy, distorted financial markets, and declining productivity. These are economic facts, easily verified even by non-economists. Prosperity arises from a growing capital stock that serves consumer demand efficiently and precisely with more goods and services.

Keynesian policy has proven disastrous for Europe, because it hands politicians a permanent excuse to expand their influence, build bureaucracy, and manipulate markets. Political institutions such as the European Commission, most European parties, and the governments of member states operate almost exclusively in this mode.

The Green Deal

It was in this spirit that the Green Deal was born—a pseudo-economy disguised as “green transformation” and sold to the public as a contribution to saving the planet. In truth, it is a monstrous contraption, a grotesque response to Europe’s strategic energy dependency, which devours ever-larger portions of the economy each year just to keep its oversized subsidy machine running.

In 2024 alone, Germany poured between €90 and €100 billion into this machine. The federal government provided €58 billion, while the European Investment Bank added €8.6 billion in fresh loans, the EU’s InvestEU program €9.1 billion, and the EU’s Innovation and Environment Funds about €20 billion. Without this constant flow of financing, the zombie economy would collapse. As if to prove the point, the German government has funneled another €100 billion of debt—disguised as a “special fund”—into the ever-hungry green subsidy machine.

Pseudo-economies survive only through new injections of capital, producing continuously against market demand. Internal tensions rise until collapse becomes inevitable. The Green Deal has trapped Europe in precisely this downward spiral.

The Spillover

Germany is now in its third year of recession and recording a record number of corporate bankruptcies. At the same time, the government has added half a million public-sector jobs in just six years, while 1.2 million private-sector jobs disappeared. Combined with uncontrolled migration, the result is extreme pressure on Germany’s welfare system.

Politics has retreated into a purely defensive posture: the welfare state as a catch basin for the hundreds of thousands losing their livelihoods, while the private sector collapses under the burden of energy costs and subsidies.

The diagnosis is clear: the Green Deal is a dead end. Every euro spent on it crowds out private capital markets, misallocates resources, and shackles workers in unproductive sectors. The contrast with Argentina is striking: there, President Milei slashed the state’s share of GDP by six percentage points and triggered an economic boom of 7.7% growth.

Transformation Requires Pain

The only way out for Europe is to accept a painful transformation phase, shrink the state, and abandon its eco-fantasies. Rational energy policy means nuclear power and reintegrating Russian energy supplies.

Yet public opinion tells a different story: 64% of Germans are satisfied with renewables or want more of them. Years of state propaganda have erased the link between green subsidies and economic collapse. The climate-change narrative- moralized and weaponized - has cemented itself into public consciousness.

Renewables may have their place, but only in free markets, without coercion or forced levies. The green zombie economy has never succeeded in reviving Europe’s growth. It is time to face reality and tear down this structure before anything new can be built.

The Next Attempt

But Europe shows no signs of changing course. The bureaucracy has grown too large to dismantle itself. From Berlin to Brussels, leaders treat the industrial exodus as a series of unfortunate accidents rather than the direct result of their policies. The cozy “Made for Germany” roundtable between Friedrich Merz and DAX CEOs confirmed the suspicion of corporate-statist collusion.

Having failed with the Green Deal, Europe’s politicians are now trying a new pseudo-economy: a debt-fueled military-industrial complex. According to a study by Ernst & Young, Germany’s DAX companies cut 30,000 jobs in the first half of 2025—except for defense contractors Rheinmetall and MTU Aero Engines, which increased headcount by 17% and 7%, respectively.

The EU’s plan: by 2035, half of all European defense goods—from artillery and cyber defense to precision munitions—will be produced within the bloc, creating up to 660,000 jobs. This will be financed not only by swelling national defense budgets but also by EU programs like ReARM Europe and SAFE, which will raise hundreds of billions in new debt.

Eyes Wide Shut

Brussels plans to mobilize an additional €800 billion in defense spending by 2030. Yet no sector produces further from real consumer demand than the arms industry. This is Keynesian pseudo-economics in its most extreme form—buying time with debt while starving private capital markets.

The rise of the defense lobby as Brussels’ new darling will turbocharge corruption, deepen the divide between parasitic EU structures and shrinking productive forces, and cement corporatist cronyism as the EU’s operating system. Von der Leyen’s Pfizer text-message scandal remains the most fitting symbol of this clandestine Brussels machine.

In the end, Europe’s war economy has neither the resources nor the technology to deliver on the dream of a militarized EU. It is a tragic rerun of the Green Deal—propaganda-driven, debt-fueled, and doomed to collapse.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 06:30

Europe's New War Economy: From Green Collapse To Military Keynesianism

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

While the green pseudo-economy drags the broader economy into the basement, two-thirds of Germans say they are satisfied with renewable energy or even want to see it expanded more rapidly. Meanwhile, the construction of a European war economy marks the next stage in Europe’s ongoing impoverishment.

The most popular yet most destructive economic strategy remains the modern interpretation of Keynesianism. With his oversimplified view of economic activity, the British economist John Maynard Keynes inadvertently handed postwar politicians a toolkit that they later perverted into an all-purpose “solution” for every economic crisis. The condensed version reads as follows: nearly every recession stems from a demand shortfall by consumers. The state’s job, therefore, is to create artificial credit to fill this demand gap.

Recipe for Bureaucratic Expansion

Lower interest rates, print credit, and—so the fairy tale goes—the economy takes off. In reality, what remains is a mountain of state debt, a swelling bureaucracy, distorted financial markets, and declining productivity. These are economic facts, easily verified even by non-economists. Prosperity arises from a growing capital stock that serves consumer demand efficiently and precisely with more goods and services.

Keynesian policy has proven disastrous for Europe, because it hands politicians a permanent excuse to expand their influence, build bureaucracy, and manipulate markets. Political institutions such as the European Commission, most European parties, and the governments of member states operate almost exclusively in this mode.

The Green Deal

It was in this spirit that the Green Deal was born—a pseudo-economy disguised as “green transformation” and sold to the public as a contribution to saving the planet. In truth, it is a monstrous contraption, a grotesque response to Europe’s strategic energy dependency, which devours ever-larger portions of the economy each year just to keep its oversized subsidy machine running.

In 2024 alone, Germany poured between €90 and €100 billion into this machine. The federal government provided €58 billion, while the European Investment Bank added €8.6 billion in fresh loans, the EU’s InvestEU program €9.1 billion, and the EU’s Innovation and Environment Funds about €20 billion. Without this constant flow of financing, the zombie economy would collapse. As if to prove the point, the German government has funneled another €100 billion of debt—disguised as a “special fund”—into the ever-hungry green subsidy machine.

Pseudo-economies survive only through new injections of capital, producing continuously against market demand. Internal tensions rise until collapse becomes inevitable. The Green Deal has trapped Europe in precisely this downward spiral.

The Spillover

Germany is now in its third year of recession and recording a record number of corporate bankruptcies. At the same time, the government has added half a million public-sector jobs in just six years, while 1.2 million private-sector jobs disappeared. Combined with uncontrolled migration, the result is extreme pressure on Germany’s welfare system.

Politics has retreated into a purely defensive posture: the welfare state as a catch basin for the hundreds of thousands losing their livelihoods, while the private sector collapses under the burden of energy costs and subsidies.

The diagnosis is clear: the Green Deal is a dead end. Every euro spent on it crowds out private capital markets, misallocates resources, and shackles workers in unproductive sectors. The contrast with Argentina is striking: there, President Milei slashed the state’s share of GDP by six percentage points and triggered an economic boom of 7.7% growth.

Transformation Requires Pain

The only way out for Europe is to accept a painful transformation phase, shrink the state, and abandon its eco-fantasies. Rational energy policy means nuclear power and reintegrating Russian energy supplies.

Yet public opinion tells a different story: 64% of Germans are satisfied with renewables or want more of them. Years of state propaganda have erased the link between green subsidies and economic collapse. The climate-change narrative- moralized and weaponized - has cemented itself into public consciousness.

Renewables may have their place, but only in free markets, without coercion or forced levies. The green zombie economy has never succeeded in reviving Europe’s growth. It is time to face reality and tear down this structure before anything new can be built.

The Next Attempt

But Europe shows no signs of changing course. The bureaucracy has grown too large to dismantle itself. From Berlin to Brussels, leaders treat the industrial exodus as a series of unfortunate accidents rather than the direct result of their policies. The cozy “Made for Germany” roundtable between Friedrich Merz and DAX CEOs confirmed the suspicion of corporate-statist collusion.

Having failed with the Green Deal, Europe’s politicians are now trying a new pseudo-economy: a debt-fueled military-industrial complex. According to a study by Ernst & Young, Germany’s DAX companies cut 30,000 jobs in the first half of 2025—except for defense contractors Rheinmetall and MTU Aero Engines, which increased headcount by 17% and 7%, respectively.

The EU’s plan: by 2035, half of all European defense goods—from artillery and cyber defense to precision munitions—will be produced within the bloc, creating up to 660,000 jobs. This will be financed not only by swelling national defense budgets but also by EU programs like ReARM Europe and SAFE, which will raise hundreds of billions in new debt.

Eyes Wide Shut

Brussels plans to mobilize an additional €800 billion in defense spending by 2030. Yet no sector produces further from real consumer demand than the arms industry. This is Keynesian pseudo-economics in its most extreme form—buying time with debt while starving private capital markets.

The rise of the defense lobby as Brussels’ new darling will turbocharge corruption, deepen the divide between parasitic EU structures and shrinking productive forces, and cement corporatist cronyism as the EU’s operating system. Von der Leyen’s Pfizer text-message scandal remains the most fitting symbol of this clandestine Brussels machine.

In the end, Europe’s war economy has neither the resources nor the technology to deliver on the dream of a militarized EU. It is a tragic rerun of the Green Deal—propaganda-driven, debt-fueled, and doomed to collapse.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 06:30

Europe's New War Economy: From Green Collapse To Military Keynesianism

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

While the green pseudo-economy drags the broader economy into the basement, two-thirds of Germans say they are satisfied with renewable energy or even want to see it expanded more rapidly. Meanwhile, the construction of a European war economy marks the next stage in Europe’s ongoing impoverishment.

The most popular yet most destructive economic strategy remains the modern interpretation of Keynesianism. With his oversimplified view of economic activity, the British economist John Maynard Keynes inadvertently handed postwar politicians a toolkit that they later perverted into an all-purpose “solution” for every economic crisis. The condensed version reads as follows: nearly every recession stems from a demand shortfall by consumers. The state’s job, therefore, is to create artificial credit to fill this demand gap.

Recipe for Bureaucratic Expansion

Lower interest rates, print credit, and—so the fairy tale goes—the economy takes off. In reality, what remains is a mountain of state debt, a swelling bureaucracy, distorted financial markets, and declining productivity. These are economic facts, easily verified even by non-economists. Prosperity arises from a growing capital stock that serves consumer demand efficiently and precisely with more goods and services.

Keynesian policy has proven disastrous for Europe, because it hands politicians a permanent excuse to expand their influence, build bureaucracy, and manipulate markets. Political institutions such as the European Commission, most European parties, and the governments of member states operate almost exclusively in this mode.

The Green Deal

It was in this spirit that the Green Deal was born—a pseudo-economy disguised as “green transformation” and sold to the public as a contribution to saving the planet. In truth, it is a monstrous contraption, a grotesque response to Europe’s strategic energy dependency, which devours ever-larger portions of the economy each year just to keep its oversized subsidy machine running.

In 2024 alone, Germany poured between €90 and €100 billion into this machine. The federal government provided €58 billion, while the European Investment Bank added €8.6 billion in fresh loans, the EU’s InvestEU program €9.1 billion, and the EU’s Innovation and Environment Funds about €20 billion. Without this constant flow of financing, the zombie economy would collapse. As if to prove the point, the German government has funneled another €100 billion of debt—disguised as a “special fund”—into the ever-hungry green subsidy machine.

Pseudo-economies survive only through new injections of capital, producing continuously against market demand. Internal tensions rise until collapse becomes inevitable. The Green Deal has trapped Europe in precisely this downward spiral.

The Spillover

Germany is now in its third year of recession and recording a record number of corporate bankruptcies. At the same time, the government has added half a million public-sector jobs in just six years, while 1.2 million private-sector jobs disappeared. Combined with uncontrolled migration, the result is extreme pressure on Germany’s welfare system.

Politics has retreated into a purely defensive posture: the welfare state as a catch basin for the hundreds of thousands losing their livelihoods, while the private sector collapses under the burden of energy costs and subsidies.

The diagnosis is clear: the Green Deal is a dead end. Every euro spent on it crowds out private capital markets, misallocates resources, and shackles workers in unproductive sectors. The contrast with Argentina is striking: there, President Milei slashed the state’s share of GDP by six percentage points and triggered an economic boom of 7.7% growth.

Transformation Requires Pain

The only way out for Europe is to accept a painful transformation phase, shrink the state, and abandon its eco-fantasies. Rational energy policy means nuclear power and reintegrating Russian energy supplies.

Yet public opinion tells a different story: 64% of Germans are satisfied with renewables or want more of them. Years of state propaganda have erased the link between green subsidies and economic collapse. The climate-change narrative- moralized and weaponized - has cemented itself into public consciousness.

Renewables may have their place, but only in free markets, without coercion or forced levies. The green zombie economy has never succeeded in reviving Europe’s growth. It is time to face reality and tear down this structure before anything new can be built.

The Next Attempt

But Europe shows no signs of changing course. The bureaucracy has grown too large to dismantle itself. From Berlin to Brussels, leaders treat the industrial exodus as a series of unfortunate accidents rather than the direct result of their policies. The cozy “Made for Germany” roundtable between Friedrich Merz and DAX CEOs confirmed the suspicion of corporate-statist collusion.

Having failed with the Green Deal, Europe’s politicians are now trying a new pseudo-economy: a debt-fueled military-industrial complex. According to a study by Ernst & Young, Germany’s DAX companies cut 30,000 jobs in the first half of 2025—except for defense contractors Rheinmetall and MTU Aero Engines, which increased headcount by 17% and 7%, respectively.

The EU’s plan: by 2035, half of all European defense goods—from artillery and cyber defense to precision munitions—will be produced within the bloc, creating up to 660,000 jobs. This will be financed not only by swelling national defense budgets but also by EU programs like ReARM Europe and SAFE, which will raise hundreds of billions in new debt.

Eyes Wide Shut

Brussels plans to mobilize an additional €800 billion in defense spending by 2030. Yet no sector produces further from real consumer demand than the arms industry. This is Keynesian pseudo-economics in its most extreme form—buying time with debt while starving private capital markets.

The rise of the defense lobby as Brussels’ new darling will turbocharge corruption, deepen the divide between parasitic EU structures and shrinking productive forces, and cement corporatist cronyism as the EU’s operating system. Von der Leyen’s Pfizer text-message scandal remains the most fitting symbol of this clandestine Brussels machine.

In the end, Europe’s war economy has neither the resources nor the technology to deliver on the dream of a militarized EU. It is a tragic rerun of the Green Deal—propaganda-driven, debt-fueled, and doomed to collapse.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 06:30

Microsoft Sends 60 Day Warning To Windows 10 Users

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As Microsoft moves toward ending its support of Windows 10, PC users who haven’t yet upgraded to Windows 11 now have less than 60 days to take action to make sure their devices are receiving updates for cyber threats.

Visitors try out Windows 10, the latest operating system from software giant Microsoft, during a launch event in Seoul on July 29, 2015. Jung Yeon-Je /AFP

On Aug. 16, Windows 10 users may have noticed a message on their devices, warning that they have 60 days left to take action before security and feature updates and technical support for their PC ends on Oct. 14.

Microsoft announced in 2023 that it was ending support for its Windows 10 platform as it rolled out Windows 11—calling it its “home for AI”and its “most secure version of Windows ever” due to “hardware-based” advanced security features.

“Companies and organizations that operate Windows 10 may find it challenging to maintain regulatory compliance with unsupported software,” Microsoft said in a blog post in June.

Not all PC users are able to or want to switch to a new operating system that offers new AI functionalities. Some older devices are not compatible with Windows 11, due to the system’s increased processing and hardware requirements. According to market share data, around 700 million PC users, or 43 percent, are still using Windows 10, which was launched in July 2015. Windows 11 holds about 53 percent of the market share.

The company has faced legal action demanding that it extend free support for Windows 10 users until their market share drops below 10 percent, although it’s yet to be seen if the complaint will succeed in court. Windows 10 has been one of Microsoft’s most popular operating systems.

Currently, Windows 10 users will have to take action before the Oct. 14 deadline to make sure their devices don’t fall off support after critical security updates end.

“With Windows 10 support coming to an end in October, we’re here to provide information and resources to help you choose the path that works best for you—whether that’s exploring the next generation of Windows, staying on your current PC with the Extended Security Program (ESU) or moving to a cloud-based solution,” the company said on the transition.

Although users’ Windows 10 devices will continue to function, “they will no longer receive regular security updates, making them more vulnerable to cyber threats, such as malware and viruses.”

Microsoft is rolling out enrolment in its transition program, which allows those on the Windows 10 system to continue to receive security support until October 2026.

“The Windows 10 Extended Security Updates (ESU) program is designed to keep your current Windows 10 PC protected after support ends—helping you stay secure during the transition,” the company said.

The company has also said it plans to continue offering security updates for Microsoft Defender Antivirus through October 2028. Microsoft 365 Apps will also continue to receive security updates until Oct. 10, 2028. However, feature updates for the apps will be discontinued from August next year. Technical support will also not be extended for Windows 10 users.

“These updates are intended to help ease customers’ transition to Windows 11 and will be delivered through standard update channels. These updates do not include technical support,” Microsoft said.

To continue receiving support from Microsoft, users have two options: enrol in the ESU program with an annual payment or link their devices to Microsoft’s cloud.

The first option will cost individual users $30. The payment can be made using a Microsoft account, and will cover as many as 10 devices through to Oct. 13, 2026. Alternatively, accounts can use 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points as payment.

Users have also been offered a cloud-based solution. In this option, they can choose to sync their Windows 10 device to Microsoft’s cloud service, Windows 365, which will allow them to access Windows 11 Cloud PCs on Microsoft’s servers. Those with a lot of data can sign up for a Windows 365 cloud service plan.

The link for ESU enrolment can be found on the company’s Windows Update page.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 05:45

Microsoft Sends 60 Day Warning To Windows 10 Users

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As Microsoft moves toward ending its support of Windows 10, PC users who haven’t yet upgraded to Windows 11 now have less than 60 days to take action to make sure their devices are receiving updates for cyber threats.

Visitors try out Windows 10, the latest operating system from software giant Microsoft, during a launch event in Seoul on July 29, 2015. Jung Yeon-Je /AFP

On Aug. 16, Windows 10 users may have noticed a message on their devices, warning that they have 60 days left to take action before security and feature updates and technical support for their PC ends on Oct. 14.

Microsoft announced in 2023 that it was ending support for its Windows 10 platform as it rolled out Windows 11—calling it its “home for AI”and its “most secure version of Windows ever” due to “hardware-based” advanced security features.

“Companies and organizations that operate Windows 10 may find it challenging to maintain regulatory compliance with unsupported software,” Microsoft said in a blog post in June.

Not all PC users are able to or want to switch to a new operating system that offers new AI functionalities. Some older devices are not compatible with Windows 11, due to the system’s increased processing and hardware requirements. According to market share data, around 700 million PC users, or 43 percent, are still using Windows 10, which was launched in July 2015. Windows 11 holds about 53 percent of the market share.

The company has faced legal action demanding that it extend free support for Windows 10 users until their market share drops below 10 percent, although it’s yet to be seen if the complaint will succeed in court. Windows 10 has been one of Microsoft’s most popular operating systems.

Currently, Windows 10 users will have to take action before the Oct. 14 deadline to make sure their devices don’t fall off support after critical security updates end.

“With Windows 10 support coming to an end in October, we’re here to provide information and resources to help you choose the path that works best for you—whether that’s exploring the next generation of Windows, staying on your current PC with the Extended Security Program (ESU) or moving to a cloud-based solution,” the company said on the transition.

Although users’ Windows 10 devices will continue to function, “they will no longer receive regular security updates, making them more vulnerable to cyber threats, such as malware and viruses.”

Microsoft is rolling out enrolment in its transition program, which allows those on the Windows 10 system to continue to receive security support until October 2026.

“The Windows 10 Extended Security Updates (ESU) program is designed to keep your current Windows 10 PC protected after support ends—helping you stay secure during the transition,” the company said.

The company has also said it plans to continue offering security updates for Microsoft Defender Antivirus through October 2028. Microsoft 365 Apps will also continue to receive security updates until Oct. 10, 2028. However, feature updates for the apps will be discontinued from August next year. Technical support will also not be extended for Windows 10 users.

“These updates are intended to help ease customers’ transition to Windows 11 and will be delivered through standard update channels. These updates do not include technical support,” Microsoft said.

To continue receiving support from Microsoft, users have two options: enrol in the ESU program with an annual payment or link their devices to Microsoft’s cloud.

The first option will cost individual users $30. The payment can be made using a Microsoft account, and will cover as many as 10 devices through to Oct. 13, 2026. Alternatively, accounts can use 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points as payment.

Users have also been offered a cloud-based solution. In this option, they can choose to sync their Windows 10 device to Microsoft’s cloud service, Windows 365, which will allow them to access Windows 11 Cloud PCs on Microsoft’s servers. Those with a lot of data can sign up for a Windows 365 cloud service plan.

The link for ESU enrolment can be found on the company’s Windows Update page.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 05:45

Microsoft Sends 60 Day Warning To Windows 10 Users

Authored by Melanie Sun via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As Microsoft moves toward ending its support of Windows 10, PC users who haven’t yet upgraded to Windows 11 now have less than 60 days to take action to make sure their devices are receiving updates for cyber threats.

Visitors try out Windows 10, the latest operating system from software giant Microsoft, during a launch event in Seoul on July 29, 2015. Jung Yeon-Je /AFP

On Aug. 16, Windows 10 users may have noticed a message on their devices, warning that they have 60 days left to take action before security and feature updates and technical support for their PC ends on Oct. 14.

Microsoft announced in 2023 that it was ending support for its Windows 10 platform as it rolled out Windows 11—calling it its “home for AI”and its “most secure version of Windows ever” due to “hardware-based” advanced security features.

“Companies and organizations that operate Windows 10 may find it challenging to maintain regulatory compliance with unsupported software,” Microsoft said in a blog post in June.

Not all PC users are able to or want to switch to a new operating system that offers new AI functionalities. Some older devices are not compatible with Windows 11, due to the system’s increased processing and hardware requirements. According to market share data, around 700 million PC users, or 43 percent, are still using Windows 10, which was launched in July 2015. Windows 11 holds about 53 percent of the market share.

The company has faced legal action demanding that it extend free support for Windows 10 users until their market share drops below 10 percent, although it’s yet to be seen if the complaint will succeed in court. Windows 10 has been one of Microsoft’s most popular operating systems.

Currently, Windows 10 users will have to take action before the Oct. 14 deadline to make sure their devices don’t fall off support after critical security updates end.

“With Windows 10 support coming to an end in October, we’re here to provide information and resources to help you choose the path that works best for you—whether that’s exploring the next generation of Windows, staying on your current PC with the Extended Security Program (ESU) or moving to a cloud-based solution,” the company said on the transition.

Although users’ Windows 10 devices will continue to function, “they will no longer receive regular security updates, making them more vulnerable to cyber threats, such as malware and viruses.”

Microsoft is rolling out enrolment in its transition program, which allows those on the Windows 10 system to continue to receive security support until October 2026.

“The Windows 10 Extended Security Updates (ESU) program is designed to keep your current Windows 10 PC protected after support ends—helping you stay secure during the transition,” the company said.

The company has also said it plans to continue offering security updates for Microsoft Defender Antivirus through October 2028. Microsoft 365 Apps will also continue to receive security updates until Oct. 10, 2028. However, feature updates for the apps will be discontinued from August next year. Technical support will also not be extended for Windows 10 users.

“These updates are intended to help ease customers’ transition to Windows 11 and will be delivered through standard update channels. These updates do not include technical support,” Microsoft said.

To continue receiving support from Microsoft, users have two options: enrol in the ESU program with an annual payment or link their devices to Microsoft’s cloud.

The first option will cost individual users $30. The payment can be made using a Microsoft account, and will cover as many as 10 devices through to Oct. 13, 2026. Alternatively, accounts can use 1,000 Microsoft Rewards points as payment.

Users have also been offered a cloud-based solution. In this option, they can choose to sync their Windows 10 device to Microsoft’s cloud service, Windows 365, which will allow them to access Windows 11 Cloud PCs on Microsoft’s servers. Those with a lot of data can sign up for a Windows 365 cloud service plan.

The link for ESU enrolment can be found on the company’s Windows Update page.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 05:45

Danish PM Calls Netanyahu A 'Problem', Threatens Sanctions On Israel

Via The Cradle

Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Sunday that Benjamin Netanyahu has become a "problem," and that she does not rule out sanctions on the Israeli Prime Minister, or even on Israel as a state.

Speaking with Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten, Frederiksen stated that "Netanyahu himself is a problem now," and that Israel would be better off with a new leader. She said that Netanyahu's government "goes too far," both in its war on Gaza and its ongoing colonization of the occupied West Bank. "It is settler violence, the additional settlements in the West Bank backed by Netanyahu, and the government's opposition to a two-state solution, which blocks peace."

Via Associated Press

Earlier this week, a minister in Netanyahu's cabinet, Bezalel Smotrich, announced Israel would build over 3,000 new housing units for Israeli Jews in the illegal settlement of Ma'ale Adumim in the so-called E1 zone of the West Bank.

If constructed, the new project would divide the occupied West Bank and eliminate the chance to create a contiguous Palestinian state.

While criticizing Netanyahu and his government, the Danish Prime Minister nevertheless expressed her strong support for Israel. "We have a huge political problem with a very, very right-wing government in Israel, which, in my opinion, is currently working against Israel's interests as well," she said.

"I can say that because we, from the Danish side, have always been very active in supporting the state of Israel since the Second World War."

Frederiksen suggested Denmark could use its current position in the EU to impose sanctions on Netanyahu, Israeli ministers, or the Israeli state. Denmark currently holds the EU Council Presidency, which is the co-legislator of the EU alongside the European Parliament.

"It is about political pressure, about sanctions. It can be against settlers or ministers, and it can also be against Israel as a whole," she said.

"We do not rule anything out in advance. Like with Russia, we structure sanctions to target where they will be most effective. We are one of the countries that will apply additional pressure on Israel, but we have not yet gained support from the EU member states."

Despite her criticisms of Netanyahu, Frederiksen declined to commit to arresting him should he travel to Denmark.

"I have no expectation that Netanyahu will come to Denmark. But I expect Danish authorities to handle it if it happens. I have nothing further to add."

In November 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Israeli Prime Minister on accusations of using starvation as a weapon of war against the over 2 million Palestinians in Gaza. ICC member states are legally obliged to enforce ICC warrants.

Amid growing starvation in Gaza, Frederiksen wrote on Facebook that "the greatest need is to get humanitarian aid to the civilians in Gaza."

"Blocking humanitarian aid is completely unacceptable," she added. Frederiksen refused to recognize Palestine as a state, however, claiming it would be a reward for Hamas for its attack on Israeli settlements and military bases on 7 October 2023.

"We must also be sure that there is mutual recognition from a Palestinian state by Israel," she added. "I do not want to do anything that could seem like a reward for Hamas."

Some 1,200 Israelis were killed and 253 taken captive during the Hamas operation, which it said was launched to break the siege on Gaza, known as Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.

Many, if not most, of the Israelis killed during the attack were allegedly killed by Israeli forces, including by fire from attack helicopters, drones, and tanks, per a policy known as the Hannibal Directive.

Israel's war on Gaza may have killed over 100,000 Palestinians - according to some estimates - displaced virtually the entire population of 2 million, and flattened most of the strip. Israel is now seeking to ethnically cleanse Gaza to pave the way for building Jewish settlements on the enclave's ruins.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 05:00

Danish PM Calls Netanyahu A 'Problem', Threatens Sanctions On Israel

Via The Cradle

Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Sunday that Benjamin Netanyahu has become a "problem," and that she does not rule out sanctions on the Israeli Prime Minister, or even on Israel as a state.

Speaking with Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten, Frederiksen stated that "Netanyahu himself is a problem now," and that Israel would be better off with a new leader. She said that Netanyahu's government "goes too far," both in its war on Gaza and its ongoing colonization of the occupied West Bank. "It is settler violence, the additional settlements in the West Bank backed by Netanyahu, and the government's opposition to a two-state solution, which blocks peace."

Via Associated Press

Earlier this week, a minister in Netanyahu's cabinet, Bezalel Smotrich, announced Israel would build over 3,000 new housing units for Israeli Jews in the illegal settlement of Ma'ale Adumim in the so-called E1 zone of the West Bank.

If constructed, the new project would divide the occupied West Bank and eliminate the chance to create a contiguous Palestinian state.

While criticizing Netanyahu and his government, the Danish Prime Minister nevertheless expressed her strong support for Israel. "We have a huge political problem with a very, very right-wing government in Israel, which, in my opinion, is currently working against Israel's interests as well," she said.

"I can say that because we, from the Danish side, have always been very active in supporting the state of Israel since the Second World War."

Frederiksen suggested Denmark could use its current position in the EU to impose sanctions on Netanyahu, Israeli ministers, or the Israeli state. Denmark currently holds the EU Council Presidency, which is the co-legislator of the EU alongside the European Parliament.

"It is about political pressure, about sanctions. It can be against settlers or ministers, and it can also be against Israel as a whole," she said.

"We do not rule anything out in advance. Like with Russia, we structure sanctions to target where they will be most effective. We are one of the countries that will apply additional pressure on Israel, but we have not yet gained support from the EU member states."

Despite her criticisms of Netanyahu, Frederiksen declined to commit to arresting him should he travel to Denmark.

"I have no expectation that Netanyahu will come to Denmark. But I expect Danish authorities to handle it if it happens. I have nothing further to add."

In November 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Israeli Prime Minister on accusations of using starvation as a weapon of war against the over 2 million Palestinians in Gaza. ICC member states are legally obliged to enforce ICC warrants.

Amid growing starvation in Gaza, Frederiksen wrote on Facebook that "the greatest need is to get humanitarian aid to the civilians in Gaza."

"Blocking humanitarian aid is completely unacceptable," she added. Frederiksen refused to recognize Palestine as a state, however, claiming it would be a reward for Hamas for its attack on Israeli settlements and military bases on 7 October 2023.

"We must also be sure that there is mutual recognition from a Palestinian state by Israel," she added. "I do not want to do anything that could seem like a reward for Hamas."

Some 1,200 Israelis were killed and 253 taken captive during the Hamas operation, which it said was launched to break the siege on Gaza, known as Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.

Many, if not most, of the Israelis killed during the attack were allegedly killed by Israeli forces, including by fire from attack helicopters, drones, and tanks, per a policy known as the Hannibal Directive.

Israel's war on Gaza may have killed over 100,000 Palestinians - according to some estimates - displaced virtually the entire population of 2 million, and flattened most of the strip. Israel is now seeking to ethnically cleanse Gaza to pave the way for building Jewish settlements on the enclave's ruins.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 05:00

Danish PM Calls Netanyahu A 'Problem', Threatens Sanctions On Israel

Via The Cradle

Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said on Sunday that Benjamin Netanyahu has become a "problem," and that she does not rule out sanctions on the Israeli Prime Minister, or even on Israel as a state.

Speaking with Danish newspaper Jyllands-Posten, Frederiksen stated that "Netanyahu himself is a problem now," and that Israel would be better off with a new leader. She said that Netanyahu's government "goes too far," both in its war on Gaza and its ongoing colonization of the occupied West Bank. "It is settler violence, the additional settlements in the West Bank backed by Netanyahu, and the government's opposition to a two-state solution, which blocks peace."

Via Associated Press

Earlier this week, a minister in Netanyahu's cabinet, Bezalel Smotrich, announced Israel would build over 3,000 new housing units for Israeli Jews in the illegal settlement of Ma'ale Adumim in the so-called E1 zone of the West Bank.

If constructed, the new project would divide the occupied West Bank and eliminate the chance to create a contiguous Palestinian state.

While criticizing Netanyahu and his government, the Danish Prime Minister nevertheless expressed her strong support for Israel. "We have a huge political problem with a very, very right-wing government in Israel, which, in my opinion, is currently working against Israel's interests as well," she said.

"I can say that because we, from the Danish side, have always been very active in supporting the state of Israel since the Second World War."

Frederiksen suggested Denmark could use its current position in the EU to impose sanctions on Netanyahu, Israeli ministers, or the Israeli state. Denmark currently holds the EU Council Presidency, which is the co-legislator of the EU alongside the European Parliament.

"It is about political pressure, about sanctions. It can be against settlers or ministers, and it can also be against Israel as a whole," she said.

"We do not rule anything out in advance. Like with Russia, we structure sanctions to target where they will be most effective. We are one of the countries that will apply additional pressure on Israel, but we have not yet gained support from the EU member states."

Despite her criticisms of Netanyahu, Frederiksen declined to commit to arresting him should he travel to Denmark.

"I have no expectation that Netanyahu will come to Denmark. But I expect Danish authorities to handle it if it happens. I have nothing further to add."

In November 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for the Israeli Prime Minister on accusations of using starvation as a weapon of war against the over 2 million Palestinians in Gaza. ICC member states are legally obliged to enforce ICC warrants.

Amid growing starvation in Gaza, Frederiksen wrote on Facebook that "the greatest need is to get humanitarian aid to the civilians in Gaza."

"Blocking humanitarian aid is completely unacceptable," she added. Frederiksen refused to recognize Palestine as a state, however, claiming it would be a reward for Hamas for its attack on Israeli settlements and military bases on 7 October 2023.

"We must also be sure that there is mutual recognition from a Palestinian state by Israel," she added. "I do not want to do anything that could seem like a reward for Hamas."

Some 1,200 Israelis were killed and 253 taken captive during the Hamas operation, which it said was launched to break the siege on Gaza, known as Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.

Many, if not most, of the Israelis killed during the attack were allegedly killed by Israeli forces, including by fire from attack helicopters, drones, and tanks, per a policy known as the Hannibal Directive.

Israel's war on Gaza may have killed over 100,000 Palestinians - according to some estimates - displaced virtually the entire population of 2 million, and flattened most of the strip. Israel is now seeking to ethnically cleanse Gaza to pave the way for building Jewish settlements on the enclave's ruins.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 05:00

British Army Colonel: Civil War Is Coming

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A retired British Army Colonel is warning that he believes a civil war in the country is now inevitable because politicians are unwilling to take meaningful actions to fix societal collapse.

Colonel Richard Kemp, who has served on the Joint Intelligence Committee and the Cabinet Office crisis centre COBRA, urges that an alliance “of the hard left and Islamist extremists” will clash with broadly conservative British people and that it will lead to widespread prolonged unrest.

Kemp suggests that “together with other causes,” these Islamist leftists will “come together to threaten the cohesion and the culture, the entire culture and political existence of the West.”

"The more it develops, the more unrest we’re going to see… I would go as far as to predict not just civil unrest but civil war in the UK, in the coming years… I would hate to be right on this, but I believe I know that there is no political solution.”

I spoke to former Colonel… pic.twitter.com/kxBJlkbqdF

— Connor Tomlinson (@Con_Tomlinson) August 14, 2025

Kemp, who fought counter insurgency in Northern Ireland, served in the Gulf war, Bosnia, and commanded in Afghanistan, asserts that the agitators are “fostered by,” and “funded to a large extent, by our international enemies like Russia, China, Iran, and other countries as well.”

In an interview with podcaster Conor Tomlinson, Kemp remarks that politicians in the UK are “in a state of bewilderment, they’re like rabbits in headlights,” and that while they understand how the unrest is being fomented, they are unable or unwilling to put a stop to it.

Kemp says of political leaders that their “horizon is four years,” and “They want to keep a state of equilibrium for that time, they want to do what they can to make sure they win the next election.”

“They don’t want to take the radical sort of action that might be necessary to address these sorts of problems,” the Colonel stresses, highlighting mass migration as one major issue.

“There’s only so much that I think people can take of that, and they’ve been very quiet up until now, the people in the UK have not really raised their voices against this, or in a very limited way only. But the more it develops, and it is going to develop more and more, the more unrest we are going to see,” Kemp emphasises.

He adds, “they have no option. I’m not encouraging or supporting this, but I think the people will feel they have no option than to take action into their own hands rather than rely on political leaders who are doing nothing, in their eyes.”

“I think there is every likelihood, I don’t know what the timeframe is, but I would go so far as to not just predict civil unrest, but civil war in the UK in the coming years if this situation continues which I believe it will,” he urges.

“I’d hate to be right on this, but I believe that I know there is no political solution to the situation Britain faces today,” Kemp further declares, adding “When I say there is no solution, I don’t mean there actually isn’t a solution, but there is no solution that any of our politicians are willing to take… because they are afraid of doing anything significant.”

As we’ve previously highlighted, these views are shared by London King’s College war professor Dr David Betz, who believes the UK is already “past the tipping point,” for near future civil war.

Betz stated earlier this year, “There isn’t anything they can do, it’s baked in. We’re already past the tipping point, is my estimation… we are past the point at which there is a political offramp. We are past the point at which normal politics is able to solve the problem… almost every plausible way forward from here involves some kind of violence in my view.”

Kemp’s interviewer Conor Tomlinson notes that Colonel Kemp has never even heard of Professor Betz and arrived at the same conclusion completely independently, Which “makes his well-informed warnings all the more alarming.”

The YouTube version of the interview is also below:

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 04:15

British Army Colonel: Civil War Is Coming

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A retired British Army Colonel is warning that he believes a civil war in the country is now inevitable because politicians are unwilling to take meaningful actions to fix societal collapse.

Colonel Richard Kemp, who has served on the Joint Intelligence Committee and the Cabinet Office crisis centre COBRA, urges that an alliance “of the hard left and Islamist extremists” will clash with broadly conservative British people and that it will lead to widespread prolonged unrest.

Kemp suggests that “together with other causes,” these Islamist leftists will “come together to threaten the cohesion and the culture, the entire culture and political existence of the West.”

"The more it develops, the more unrest we’re going to see… I would go as far as to predict not just civil unrest but civil war in the UK, in the coming years… I would hate to be right on this, but I believe I know that there is no political solution.”

I spoke to former Colonel… pic.twitter.com/kxBJlkbqdF

— Connor Tomlinson (@Con_Tomlinson) August 14, 2025

Kemp, who fought counter insurgency in Northern Ireland, served in the Gulf war, Bosnia, and commanded in Afghanistan, asserts that the agitators are “fostered by,” and “funded to a large extent, by our international enemies like Russia, China, Iran, and other countries as well.”

In an interview with podcaster Conor Tomlinson, Kemp remarks that politicians in the UK are “in a state of bewilderment, they’re like rabbits in headlights,” and that while they understand how the unrest is being fomented, they are unable or unwilling to put a stop to it.

Kemp says of political leaders that their “horizon is four years,” and “They want to keep a state of equilibrium for that time, they want to do what they can to make sure they win the next election.”

“They don’t want to take the radical sort of action that might be necessary to address these sorts of problems,” the Colonel stresses, highlighting mass migration as one major issue.

“There’s only so much that I think people can take of that, and they’ve been very quiet up until now, the people in the UK have not really raised their voices against this, or in a very limited way only. But the more it develops, and it is going to develop more and more, the more unrest we are going to see,” Kemp emphasises.

He adds, “they have no option. I’m not encouraging or supporting this, but I think the people will feel they have no option than to take action into their own hands rather than rely on political leaders who are doing nothing, in their eyes.”

“I think there is every likelihood, I don’t know what the timeframe is, but I would go so far as to not just predict civil unrest, but civil war in the UK in the coming years if this situation continues which I believe it will,” he urges.

“I’d hate to be right on this, but I believe that I know there is no political solution to the situation Britain faces today,” Kemp further declares, adding “When I say there is no solution, I don’t mean there actually isn’t a solution, but there is no solution that any of our politicians are willing to take… because they are afraid of doing anything significant.”

As we’ve previously highlighted, these views are shared by London King’s College war professor Dr David Betz, who believes the UK is already “past the tipping point,” for near future civil war.

Betz stated earlier this year, “There isn’t anything they can do, it’s baked in. We’re already past the tipping point, is my estimation… we are past the point at which there is a political offramp. We are past the point at which normal politics is able to solve the problem… almost every plausible way forward from here involves some kind of violence in my view.”

Kemp’s interviewer Conor Tomlinson notes that Colonel Kemp has never even heard of Professor Betz and arrived at the same conclusion completely independently, Which “makes his well-informed warnings all the more alarming.”

The YouTube version of the interview is also below:

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 04:15

British Army Colonel: Civil War Is Coming

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A retired British Army Colonel is warning that he believes a civil war in the country is now inevitable because politicians are unwilling to take meaningful actions to fix societal collapse.

Colonel Richard Kemp, who has served on the Joint Intelligence Committee and the Cabinet Office crisis centre COBRA, urges that an alliance “of the hard left and Islamist extremists” will clash with broadly conservative British people and that it will lead to widespread prolonged unrest.

Kemp suggests that “together with other causes,” these Islamist leftists will “come together to threaten the cohesion and the culture, the entire culture and political existence of the West.”

"The more it develops, the more unrest we’re going to see… I would go as far as to predict not just civil unrest but civil war in the UK, in the coming years… I would hate to be right on this, but I believe I know that there is no political solution.”

I spoke to former Colonel… pic.twitter.com/kxBJlkbqdF

— Connor Tomlinson (@Con_Tomlinson) August 14, 2025

Kemp, who fought counter insurgency in Northern Ireland, served in the Gulf war, Bosnia, and commanded in Afghanistan, asserts that the agitators are “fostered by,” and “funded to a large extent, by our international enemies like Russia, China, Iran, and other countries as well.”

In an interview with podcaster Conor Tomlinson, Kemp remarks that politicians in the UK are “in a state of bewilderment, they’re like rabbits in headlights,” and that while they understand how the unrest is being fomented, they are unable or unwilling to put a stop to it.

Kemp says of political leaders that their “horizon is four years,” and “They want to keep a state of equilibrium for that time, they want to do what they can to make sure they win the next election.”

“They don’t want to take the radical sort of action that might be necessary to address these sorts of problems,” the Colonel stresses, highlighting mass migration as one major issue.

“There’s only so much that I think people can take of that, and they’ve been very quiet up until now, the people in the UK have not really raised their voices against this, or in a very limited way only. But the more it develops, and it is going to develop more and more, the more unrest we are going to see,” Kemp emphasises.

He adds, “they have no option. I’m not encouraging or supporting this, but I think the people will feel they have no option than to take action into their own hands rather than rely on political leaders who are doing nothing, in their eyes.”

“I think there is every likelihood, I don’t know what the timeframe is, but I would go so far as to not just predict civil unrest, but civil war in the UK in the coming years if this situation continues which I believe it will,” he urges.

“I’d hate to be right on this, but I believe that I know there is no political solution to the situation Britain faces today,” Kemp further declares, adding “When I say there is no solution, I don’t mean there actually isn’t a solution, but there is no solution that any of our politicians are willing to take… because they are afraid of doing anything significant.”

As we’ve previously highlighted, these views are shared by London King’s College war professor Dr David Betz, who believes the UK is already “past the tipping point,” for near future civil war.

Betz stated earlier this year, “There isn’t anything they can do, it’s baked in. We’re already past the tipping point, is my estimation… we are past the point at which there is a political offramp. We are past the point at which normal politics is able to solve the problem… almost every plausible way forward from here involves some kind of violence in my view.”

Kemp’s interviewer Conor Tomlinson notes that Colonel Kemp has never even heard of Professor Betz and arrived at the same conclusion completely independently, Which “makes his well-informed warnings all the more alarming.”

The YouTube version of the interview is also below:

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 04:15

Dispute Over EU Censorship Law Delays Trade Deal With The EU

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The United States is fighting against EU opinion control on digital platforms. From the perspective of the European Commission, this constitutes an unacceptable interference in internal affairs, which is why it is now delaying the ratification of the trade deal. In the meantime, the cost of higher tariffs due to the delay is being borne by the European economy.

Dealing with the EU is truly a headache. To be precise: The European Commission, under the leadership of its President Ursula von der Leyen, is currently squandering the last remnants of respect and trust it had left after the Pfizer scandal, the strict lockdowns, and continuous attacks on freedom of speech. The issue at hand in the continuation of trade negotiations with the United States concerns exactly this fundamental right of free citizens.

Clear Rules

Everything was essentially settled: The EU conceded and accepted the unilateral tariffs of 15 percent. Moreover, it committed to purchasing U.S. energy, such as liquefied natural gas, worth $750 billion spread over three years. Whether the market can actually absorb this volume and whether private industry can manage the coordination is another question.

The rules are unambiguous: The EU grants U.S. businesses free access to the EU single market, while, of course, the jungle-like harmonization and climate protection regulations still apply. These form the true, complex, and largely insurmountable trade barrier for most international competitors. This intricate framework, the core of the European Commission's interventionism, was accepted by the Americans. From the perspective of European industry, this is unfortunate, but the devastating domestic effects of EU protectionism and the climate fight under President Trump are irrelevant. It is the responsibility of European citizens to put an end to this disastrous policy.

Root of the Conflict

During the negotiations in Scotland, the U.S. side also made clear that it would not tolerate the massive attacks by Brussels on American communication platforms like X or Meta without pushback. And that is exactly what this is about.

Until the final signing of the trade deal between the U.S. and the EU, the pre-set higher U.S. tariffs remain in effect. For Germany’s key industry—the automotive sector—the delay is disastrous. Instead of 15 percent, manufacturers must still pay the higher tariff of 27.5 percent. The burdens add up: BMW, for example, expected tariffs of one billion euros this year. VW reported a tariff damage of 1.3 billion euros in the first half of the year alone due to U.S. tariffs that only came into force in April.

The tariffs strain already heavily restricted margins due to climate and energy policies. BMW estimates the margin loss from the trade dispute with the U.S. at around 1.25 percent. A quick deal would therefore be crucial to provide the German economy with much-needed relief in its struggle to stay competitive.

Calculation Without von der Leyen

A conclusion of the trade deal would be both possible and reasonable. But the German economy did not count on Ursula von der Leyen. The negotiations could now be finalized quickly to provide legal certainty for German businesses. Washington is ready, and President Trump has likely turned to more important matters. His tolerance for Brussels’ whining and endless trickery is probably limited. Everything points to a quick deal.

Yet for von der Leyen and her Brussels allies, other priorities take precedence.

What this exactly means was made clear last week by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He instructed U.S. diplomats in the European Union to actively oppose the increasingly aggressive implementation of the Digital Services Act (DSA) by Brussels. Cases of abuse and attacks against U.S. citizens should be reported immediately. Rubio also wants active lobbying by U.S. representatives in EU political circles to counter this open attack on freedom of speech.

EU Censorship Attack

More than a month ago, the accompanying Digital Markets Act (DMA) became the focal point of the transatlantic dispute. At that time, Donald Trump insisted on having a say in interpreting the rules, which, like the DSA, primarily targets dominant U.S. communication platforms.

At its core, Brussels aims to enforce its censorship policies precisely on those platforms that are becoming increasingly important for public discourse. Disguised in the politically overused formula of “hate and incitement,” the digital communication space is to be brought under public censorship control.

Brussels has likely noticed that counter-narratives targeting centralized eco-authoritarianism are forming primarily on these platforms. They increasingly expose the functioning and objectives of the EU power apparatus.

To secure its censorship policy, Ursula von der Leyen and her Brussels apparatus willingly accept that, in the end, both companies and European consumers pay the price of the EU’s control mania through higher tariffs.

The U.S. will maintain the current tariff regime until a robust agreement is reached on handling European censorship policy.

Washington’s hardline stance gives hope that Brussels will suffer a significant setback in its attempt to establish a digital speech dictatorship.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 03:30

Dispute Over EU Censorship Law Delays Trade Deal With The EU

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The United States is fighting against EU opinion control on digital platforms. From the perspective of the European Commission, this constitutes an unacceptable interference in internal affairs, which is why it is now delaying the ratification of the trade deal. In the meantime, the cost of higher tariffs due to the delay is being borne by the European economy.

Dealing with the EU is truly a headache. To be precise: The European Commission, under the leadership of its President Ursula von der Leyen, is currently squandering the last remnants of respect and trust it had left after the Pfizer scandal, the strict lockdowns, and continuous attacks on freedom of speech. The issue at hand in the continuation of trade negotiations with the United States concerns exactly this fundamental right of free citizens.

Clear Rules

Everything was essentially settled: The EU conceded and accepted the unilateral tariffs of 15 percent. Moreover, it committed to purchasing U.S. energy, such as liquefied natural gas, worth $750 billion spread over three years. Whether the market can actually absorb this volume and whether private industry can manage the coordination is another question.

The rules are unambiguous: The EU grants U.S. businesses free access to the EU single market, while, of course, the jungle-like harmonization and climate protection regulations still apply. These form the true, complex, and largely insurmountable trade barrier for most international competitors. This intricate framework, the core of the European Commission's interventionism, was accepted by the Americans. From the perspective of European industry, this is unfortunate, but the devastating domestic effects of EU protectionism and the climate fight under President Trump are irrelevant. It is the responsibility of European citizens to put an end to this disastrous policy.

Root of the Conflict

During the negotiations in Scotland, the U.S. side also made clear that it would not tolerate the massive attacks by Brussels on American communication platforms like X or Meta without pushback. And that is exactly what this is about.

Until the final signing of the trade deal between the U.S. and the EU, the pre-set higher U.S. tariffs remain in effect. For Germany’s key industry—the automotive sector—the delay is disastrous. Instead of 15 percent, manufacturers must still pay the higher tariff of 27.5 percent. The burdens add up: BMW, for example, expected tariffs of one billion euros this year. VW reported a tariff damage of 1.3 billion euros in the first half of the year alone due to U.S. tariffs that only came into force in April.

The tariffs strain already heavily restricted margins due to climate and energy policies. BMW estimates the margin loss from the trade dispute with the U.S. at around 1.25 percent. A quick deal would therefore be crucial to provide the German economy with much-needed relief in its struggle to stay competitive.

Calculation Without von der Leyen

A conclusion of the trade deal would be both possible and reasonable. But the German economy did not count on Ursula von der Leyen. The negotiations could now be finalized quickly to provide legal certainty for German businesses. Washington is ready, and President Trump has likely turned to more important matters. His tolerance for Brussels’ whining and endless trickery is probably limited. Everything points to a quick deal.

Yet for von der Leyen and her Brussels allies, other priorities take precedence.

What this exactly means was made clear last week by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He instructed U.S. diplomats in the European Union to actively oppose the increasingly aggressive implementation of the Digital Services Act (DSA) by Brussels. Cases of abuse and attacks against U.S. citizens should be reported immediately. Rubio also wants active lobbying by U.S. representatives in EU political circles to counter this open attack on freedom of speech.

EU Censorship Attack

More than a month ago, the accompanying Digital Markets Act (DMA) became the focal point of the transatlantic dispute. At that time, Donald Trump insisted on having a say in interpreting the rules, which, like the DSA, primarily targets dominant U.S. communication platforms.

At its core, Brussels aims to enforce its censorship policies precisely on those platforms that are becoming increasingly important for public discourse. Disguised in the politically overused formula of “hate and incitement,” the digital communication space is to be brought under public censorship control.

Brussels has likely noticed that counter-narratives targeting centralized eco-authoritarianism are forming primarily on these platforms. They increasingly expose the functioning and objectives of the EU power apparatus.

To secure its censorship policy, Ursula von der Leyen and her Brussels apparatus willingly accept that, in the end, both companies and European consumers pay the price of the EU’s control mania through higher tariffs.

The U.S. will maintain the current tariff regime until a robust agreement is reached on handling European censorship policy.

Washington’s hardline stance gives hope that Brussels will suffer a significant setback in its attempt to establish a digital speech dictatorship.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 03:30

Dispute Over EU Censorship Law Delays Trade Deal With The EU

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

The United States is fighting against EU opinion control on digital platforms. From the perspective of the European Commission, this constitutes an unacceptable interference in internal affairs, which is why it is now delaying the ratification of the trade deal. In the meantime, the cost of higher tariffs due to the delay is being borne by the European economy.

Dealing with the EU is truly a headache. To be precise: The European Commission, under the leadership of its President Ursula von der Leyen, is currently squandering the last remnants of respect and trust it had left after the Pfizer scandal, the strict lockdowns, and continuous attacks on freedom of speech. The issue at hand in the continuation of trade negotiations with the United States concerns exactly this fundamental right of free citizens.

Clear Rules

Everything was essentially settled: The EU conceded and accepted the unilateral tariffs of 15 percent. Moreover, it committed to purchasing U.S. energy, such as liquefied natural gas, worth $750 billion spread over three years. Whether the market can actually absorb this volume and whether private industry can manage the coordination is another question.

The rules are unambiguous: The EU grants U.S. businesses free access to the EU single market, while, of course, the jungle-like harmonization and climate protection regulations still apply. These form the true, complex, and largely insurmountable trade barrier for most international competitors. This intricate framework, the core of the European Commission's interventionism, was accepted by the Americans. From the perspective of European industry, this is unfortunate, but the devastating domestic effects of EU protectionism and the climate fight under President Trump are irrelevant. It is the responsibility of European citizens to put an end to this disastrous policy.

Root of the Conflict

During the negotiations in Scotland, the U.S. side also made clear that it would not tolerate the massive attacks by Brussels on American communication platforms like X or Meta without pushback. And that is exactly what this is about.

Until the final signing of the trade deal between the U.S. and the EU, the pre-set higher U.S. tariffs remain in effect. For Germany’s key industry—the automotive sector—the delay is disastrous. Instead of 15 percent, manufacturers must still pay the higher tariff of 27.5 percent. The burdens add up: BMW, for example, expected tariffs of one billion euros this year. VW reported a tariff damage of 1.3 billion euros in the first half of the year alone due to U.S. tariffs that only came into force in April.

The tariffs strain already heavily restricted margins due to climate and energy policies. BMW estimates the margin loss from the trade dispute with the U.S. at around 1.25 percent. A quick deal would therefore be crucial to provide the German economy with much-needed relief in its struggle to stay competitive.

Calculation Without von der Leyen

A conclusion of the trade deal would be both possible and reasonable. But the German economy did not count on Ursula von der Leyen. The negotiations could now be finalized quickly to provide legal certainty for German businesses. Washington is ready, and President Trump has likely turned to more important matters. His tolerance for Brussels’ whining and endless trickery is probably limited. Everything points to a quick deal.

Yet for von der Leyen and her Brussels allies, other priorities take precedence.

What this exactly means was made clear last week by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio. He instructed U.S. diplomats in the European Union to actively oppose the increasingly aggressive implementation of the Digital Services Act (DSA) by Brussels. Cases of abuse and attacks against U.S. citizens should be reported immediately. Rubio also wants active lobbying by U.S. representatives in EU political circles to counter this open attack on freedom of speech.

EU Censorship Attack

More than a month ago, the accompanying Digital Markets Act (DMA) became the focal point of the transatlantic dispute. At that time, Donald Trump insisted on having a say in interpreting the rules, which, like the DSA, primarily targets dominant U.S. communication platforms.

At its core, Brussels aims to enforce its censorship policies precisely on those platforms that are becoming increasingly important for public discourse. Disguised in the politically overused formula of “hate and incitement,” the digital communication space is to be brought under public censorship control.

Brussels has likely noticed that counter-narratives targeting centralized eco-authoritarianism are forming primarily on these platforms. They increasingly expose the functioning and objectives of the EU power apparatus.

To secure its censorship policy, Ursula von der Leyen and her Brussels apparatus willingly accept that, in the end, both companies and European consumers pay the price of the EU’s control mania through higher tariffs.

The U.S. will maintain the current tariff regime until a robust agreement is reached on handling European censorship policy.

Washington’s hardline stance gives hope that Brussels will suffer a significant setback in its attempt to establish a digital speech dictatorship.

* * * 

About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 03:30

The US Has Given Ukraine The Most Aid To Date

To date, the United States has been the biggest supporter of Ukraine in terms of aid, according to data from the Ukraine Support Tracker compiled by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

EU institutions (including the European Commission and the Council), followed by Germany and the United Kingdom have been the next biggest contributors.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, financial assistance (such as loans and grants), humanitarian aid (like food and medical supplies), and the value of weapons and equipment delivered is enormous.

This included in-kind donations to the Ukrainian military and financial support tied to military purposes.

You will find more infographics at Statista

When looking solely at military aid, including weapons and defense-related financial support, Germany ranks second, contributing an estimated €16.5 billion.

The United States remains the largest military backer, however, having delivered weapons and military funds totaling approximately €115 billion between January 24, 2022 and June 30, 2025.

In early March 2025, U.S. military aid was briefly paused, but resumed on March 11 after Ukraine signaled openness to a potential ceasefire.

The Ukraine Support Tracker, maintained by IfW Kiel, systematically records the publicly known support pledged by governments of 31 Western countries since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022.

It tracks military, financial, and humanitarian assistance, aiming to provide a factual basis for ongoing discussions about international aid to Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 02:45

The US Has Given Ukraine The Most Aid To Date

To date, the United States has been the biggest supporter of Ukraine in terms of aid, according to data from the Ukraine Support Tracker compiled by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

EU institutions (including the European Commission and the Council), followed by Germany and the United Kingdom have been the next biggest contributors.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, financial assistance (such as loans and grants), humanitarian aid (like food and medical supplies), and the value of weapons and equipment delivered is enormous.

This included in-kind donations to the Ukrainian military and financial support tied to military purposes.

You will find more infographics at Statista

When looking solely at military aid, including weapons and defense-related financial support, Germany ranks second, contributing an estimated €16.5 billion.

The United States remains the largest military backer, however, having delivered weapons and military funds totaling approximately €115 billion between January 24, 2022 and June 30, 2025.

In early March 2025, U.S. military aid was briefly paused, but resumed on March 11 after Ukraine signaled openness to a potential ceasefire.

The Ukraine Support Tracker, maintained by IfW Kiel, systematically records the publicly known support pledged by governments of 31 Western countries since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began on February 24, 2022.

It tracks military, financial, and humanitarian assistance, aiming to provide a factual basis for ongoing discussions about international aid to Ukraine.

Tyler Durden Mon, 08/18/2025 - 02:45