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Dutch Govt Suddenly Seizes Control Of China-Owned Chip Maker

Zero Hedge -

Dutch Govt Suddenly Seizes Control Of China-Owned Chip Maker

As Trump cranks up (and then walks back) rhetoric towards China, the Dutch government just turned up the Beijing-baiting amplifier to '11'.

In a sudden and quite chocking move, The FT reports that the Dutch government has taken control of Chinese-owned semiconductor maker Nexperia, warning of risks to Europe’s economic security after alleging “serious governance shortcomings” at the company.

Nexperia, the European semiconductor unit of China’s Wingtech Technology Co. is a key supplier to the automotive and consumer electronics industries. The Sept. 30 court order invoked the Goods Availability Act for the first time, a piece of legislation enacted more than 70 years ago to ensure access to critical products in emergencies.

“The decision aims to prevent a situation in which the goods produced by Nexperia would become unavailable in an emergency,” the government said in a statement late on Sunday, against a backdrop of escalating trade tensions between China and the US and its allies.

The move escalates frictions between western countries and China over access to high-end technology such as advanced semiconductors and critical raw materials.

The Netherlands should “truly adhere to market principles and refrain from politicising economic and trade issues”, said spokesperson Lin Jian.

On Thursday, China placed sweeping restrictions on the exports of rare earths used in products from cars to wind turbines.

The Dutch ministry said it invoked the country’s Goods Availability Act because of “recent and acute serious governance shortcomings and actions” at Nexperia, which is based in the Netherlands and has been majority-owned by Chinese technology group Wingtech since 2019.

As one would imagine, this move was not received well by Wingtech, which called the Dutch move excessive and based on geopolitical bias.

“We strongly protest against the discriminatory treatment targeting Chinese firms,” the company said in a statement on Monday posted on Chinese social media platform WeChat, urging the Dutch government to revoke the directives.

We have initiated all legal and diplomatic channels, it said.

As Bloomberg reports, the move was actually instigated as a management coup:

Nexperia’s own executives called for a probe into the company, headquartered in Nijmegen, the Netherlands. Its Dutch chief legal officer, supported by German chief operating officer and chief financial officer filed a petition to an Amsterdam court on Oct. 1 seeking an investigation into the firm, Wingtech said.

The demands of the European executives closely aligned with directives from the Dutch government, Wingtech said, framing the move as an effort to use political pressure to deprive shareholders of their rights and overturn the company’s legitimate governance structure.

The Dutch government said Nexperia showed “recent and acute signals of serious governance shortcomings,” without elaborating. “These signals posed a threat to the continuity and safeguarding on Dutch and European soil of crucial technological knowledge and capabilities,” it said in the statement.

While Nexperia can continue regular production, the government can now block or reverse its decisions. The Hague is demanding that Wingtech suspend changes to Nexperia’s assets, business or personnel for as much as a year, a requirement that extends to its subsidiaries, the Chinese firm said in an exchange filing on Sunday.

Its shares plunged by its daily limit of 10% in Shanghai on Monday.

The court also ordered that all shares in Nexperia - except one - should be placed under custodial management by a designated individual, not yet named, for management purposes, Wingtech said.

“China always opposes overstretching the concept of national security and discriminatory moves that target companies from certain countries,” China Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular press briefing in Beijing on Monday.

“China is firmly resolved in defending its own legitimate and lawful rights and interests.”

Washington last year added Wingtech to its “entity list”, accusing the company of helping China acquire sensitive semiconductor manufacturing technology.

The designation requires US companies to seek a license to sell to them. Those license requests are often denied.

The US commerce department last month introduced new rules that extend the sales restrictions to subsidiaries of companies on the entity list, meaning that Nexperia would be subject to restrictions because of its Wingtech ownership.

We can only imagine the reaction in Washington or Brussels were this kind of action undertaken by Beijing on a US tech firm within China.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 09:15

Futures Jump After Trump Softens China Rhetoric; Gold, Silver Soar

Zero Hedge -

Futures Jump After Trump Softens China Rhetoric; Gold, Silver Soar

US markets closed last week with the largest one-day loss in six months, with Asian overnight futures pointed to a sharp downdraft on Monday. HSCEI and Hang Seng futures closed down 5% (limit down) on Friday night. 
However, on Sunday Trump walked back some of his Friday comments, stating that “November 1 is an eternity” and expressing optimism that “they will be fine with China.” As a result, amid some fringe expectations of a "Black Monday" futures are solidly in the green as Trump strikes a reconciliatory tone in social media posts yesterday with futures pointing to a 50% retracement of Friday’s losses with Tech leading an ‘Everything Rally’ as the bond market is closed for the Columbus Day holiday and there are no expected data releases. As of 8:00am ET. S&P futures are 1.2% higher while Nasdaq futures gain 1.7% with Mag7 and Semis among the largest gainers pre-market. Cyclicals are seeing material outperformance to Defensives with rare earth plays seeing double-digit gains. In commodities, all 3 complexes are recovering with crude and precious metals the standouts as gold hits a new record high around $4080 and silver trades above $51.50 its highest level in decades amid a historic short squeeze in London. Cryptocurrencies bounced following the weekend’s selloff. French bonds held steady as President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet to contain a growing political crisis. The dollar steadied and oil rose for the first time in three days. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 names are all green after Friday's rout (Nvidia +2.7%, Apple +1.4%, Microsoft +1.1%, Meta +1.4%, Tesla +1.7%, Amazon +1.3%, Alphabet +1.2%).

  • US-listed rare earth and critical mineral stocks rise following strong gains among Asian peers, as fresh tensions between Beijing and Washington over China’s exports of the critical minerals fueled bets on alternative suppliers
  • Critical Metals (CRML) advances 18%; MP Materials (MP) +8%, Energy Fuels (UUUU) +12%
  • Blackstone Inc. (BX) rises 2% after agreeing to sell a portfolio of UK warehouses valued at $1.3 billion to Tritax Big Box REIT Plc in a deal that will hand the alternative asset manager a stake in the landlord.
  • Estee Lauder (EL) climbs 4.8% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the beauty company to buy from neutral.
  • Fastenal (FAST) falls 4% after the maker of sheet metal screws posted 3Q profit that slightly missed estimates.
  • StubHub (STUB) gains 4% after the company received several bullish initiations following its initial public offering, with analysts expecting the company to further leverage its dominant position as it enters the lucrative primary ticketing market.
  • Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) rises 4% as the media company rejected Paramount Skydance Corp.’s initial takeover approach for being too low, according to reports that cited people familiar with the matter.

In corporate news, Morgan Stanley’s asset-management business is said to have asked to redeem some money it invested in a Jefferies fund with large exposure to the trade debt of First Brands. State Street and Marex Group are expanding their outsourced trading businesses.

Stock futures are bouncing back from Friday’s dramatic selloff after Trump signaled openness to a deal with China. Treasury futures slipped, with cash trading in US bonds suspended for Columbus Day. The dash for gold persisted as the metal neared $4,080 an ounce. In Europe, French bonds held steady as President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet to contain a growing political crisis. Silver surged to its highest level in decades amid a historic short squeeze in London. Cryptocurrencies bounced following the weekend’s selloff. The dollar steadied and oil rose for the first time in three days.

“There is a belief emerging that this is mostly negotiating tactics on both sides,” wrote Jim Reid, global head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank AG. “The market will begin to price in a reasonable probability of a deal once the initial shock fades.”

Still, there’s plenty to keep traders tense, with Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson said that a bear-case scenario could see the S&P 500 sink as much as 11% if trade tensions between the US and China aren’t resolved before a November deadline. Deutsche Bank strategists said overall equity positioning is moderately overweight but not stretched, and markets could follow a scenario from 2021 when stocks suffered a modest pull back before resuming a strong, steady rally. 

With the VIX remaining above the key 20 level, the next few days will be a test of whether investors continue the systematic dip buying seen in recent months. The current three-year bull market has seen the S&P 500 add about $28 trillion in market value, but history suggests gains need to broaden out to be maintained.

As well as US-China developments, investors will focus on earnings season this week which kicks off with the banks tomorrow. US financials kick things off tomorrow, while AI-related updates including TSMC and Samsung in Asia and ASML in Europe will be closely watched. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence expect profit growth of 7.4% for US stocks in the third quarter.

A Citigroup index tracking US earnings revisions - the number of analysts upgrading versus downgrading estimates - turned flat for the first time since August, while RBC strategist Lori Calvasina said the rate of upward EPS estimate revisions has been fading. If last season’s strong sentiment around earnings can’t be maintained, stocks may face “a period of digestion,” Calvasina said. High valuations also leave little patience for companies that don’t meet the bar. The S&P 500 trades at 22 times P/E, a big premium to the rest of the world.

As JPMorgan, Goldman and Citigroup prepare to report third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, options on S&P 500 members imply an average 4.7% swing after results, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s near July’s level, when the expected move was the largest for an earnings-season kickoff since 2022, using JPMorgan’s release as the starting point.

“For earnings, the focus will remain on the richly-valued areas of the market,” said Geoff Yu, senior macro strategist at BNY. “We’ve seen a more defensive posture take hold and it’s a time for validation and confirmation.”

Outside of earnings, global policymakers and finance ministers gather this week in Washington for the IMF/World Bank fall meetings after a chorus of warnings that a stock bubble focused on AI might burst before long. 

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.4%, trimming part of Friday’s steep decline after President Donald Trump backpedaled on his tariff threats against China, signaling a willingness to negotiate. Mining, real estate and technology shares lead gains.

In FX, the Japanese yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.6% against the greenback while the Swiss franc is not far behind. The Aussie dollar outperforms, rising 0.8%.

In rates, treasury futures came under early pressure from the reopen, partially unwinding a late bid seen in Friday’s session, after President Donald Trump’s administration signaled openness to a deal with China to quell the fresh trade tensions. Cash trading in Treasuries is closed for Columbus Day. In Europe, gilts lead a modest advance in European government bonds. French bonds held steady as President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet to contain a growing political crisis

In commodities, spot gold rises over $50 to another record. WTI crude futures gain 2% to $60 a barrel. 

There is nothing on the calendar due to the Columbus Day holiday. 

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +1.1%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +1.6%
  • Russell 2000 mini +1.7%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.4%
  • DAX +0.5%
  • CAC 40 +0.5%
  • 10-year Treasury yield unchanged at 4.03%
  • VIX -2.2 points at 19.48
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1214.31
  • euro -0.2% at $1.1593
  • WTI crude +1.9% at $60/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • All remaining Israeli hostages were released by Hamas. Israel is in the process of releasing almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. Donald Trump arrived in Israel and is to address the Knesset before traveling to Egypt for a deal-signing ceremony. The Israeli PM’s office said Benjamin Netanyahu won’t go to the Egypt summit. BBG
  • The Trump administration signaled openness to a deal with China while also warning that recent export controls announced by Beijing were a major barrier to talks. BBG
  • Trump said on Friday that layoffs will be Democrat-oriented and it will be a lot of people. Trump separately commented that he is using his authority to direct the defence secretary to use all available funds to get troops paid on October 15th, while he added they identified funds to do this and Secretary Hegseth will use them to pay troops.
  • JD Vance told Fox News that the longer the shutdown goes on, the more significant permanent layoffs will be. Trump said he’s directing the Defense Department to use funds the administration has identified to deliver paychecks to US troops on Oct. 15. Vance responded that the ‘President is looking at all his options’ when asked if Trump is considering invoking the Insurrection Act. Furthermore, he said that the Justice Department is not acting on orders by President Trump to prosecute his political opponents. BBG 
  • The Pentagon is looking to buy as much as $1 billion of critical minerals to stockpile, the FT reported. China’s latest curbs on the export of batteries may have major impact on US companies, analysts say. BBG
  • China’s exports rose at the fastest pace in six months in September, beating market expectations and underscoring the sector’s continued role as a key growth driver for the world’s second-largest economy. China exports +8.3% (vs. the Street +6.6%) and imports +7.4% (vs. the Street +1.8%). WSJ
  • China’s auto sales growth accelerated in Sept vs. Aug (+6.6% Y/Y vs. +4.9% in Aug). RTRS
  • Trump said he’d consider arming Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, but may first talk to Vladimir Putin in a bid to end the war. BBG
  • Canada believes it is closing in on sectoral trade deals with the US, counting on Trump’s need for wins ahead of next year’s midterm elections. Melanie Joly, Canada’s minister of industry, said there was progress on landing trade deals, in particular for steel, which has been significantly hit by US tariffs. FT
  • JPMorgan vowed to funnel $1.5 trillion into industries that bolster US economic security and resiliency over the next 10 years — an initiative that will invest billions of dollars in companies and hire bankers and other professionals. BBG
  • Friday’s trade and tariff headlines fueled worries around a replay of April. The moves triggered heavy index-level hedging and record option volumes, even as cash equity trading remained relatively muted. S&P share volumes were only up +9% versus the 20-day moving average, while total U.S. options volume hit a new all-time high, eclipsing 100mm contracts for just the second time (April 4th was the other — when the market fell -5.97%). Friday’s felt more like a rush to protect than a rush to exit positions per Goldman
  • New research suggested that the upcoming easing of capital rules could unlock USD 2.6tln in lending capacity for US banks and increase pressure on regulators elsewhere to follow suit, according to FT.

Trade/Tariffs

  • US President Trump posted on Sunday “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”
  • US VP Vance called on Beijing to "choose the path of reason" amid escalating trade tensions with China and said President Trump has "far more cards" if an aggressive response is required.
  • China’s Commerce Ministry said the October 9th rare earth export control measures are legitimate and designed to better safeguard world peace and regional stability, while it added that rare earth export control measures do not constitute a ban on exports, and applications that meet the requirements will be granted licences. MOFCOM said the US announcement of 100% tariffs on China represents a classic case of double standards, and since the US-China talks in Madrid, the US has continuously introduced a series of new restrictions against China. It also stated that China’s position on tariff wars has been consistent, whereby they do not want to fight but are not afraid to fight. Furthermore, China urged the US to promptly correct its erroneous practices and warned that should the US persist in its course, China will resolutely take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests, as well as noted that the US decision to impose port fees on relevant Chinese vessels meant China “had no choice but to take countermeasures”, and that China’s decision to impose a special port fee on US-related vessels are necessary defensive actions.
  • China's Foreign Ministry urges US to promptly correct its "wrong practices" in regards to the new US tariffs.
  • China Customs spokesperson said US measures on shipping fees are a typical show of unilateralism and protectionism, while the spokesperson added that China’s countermeasures are necessary and are defensive actions. Furthermore, it was stated that China’s measures aim to safeguard the legitimate rights of Chinese industries and firms, while they hope the US can face up to its own 'mistakes' and that the US gets back to the correct track of communication and negotiations.
  • USTR Greer said the US reached out for a call with China after the export controls announcement, but Beijing deferred. It was also reported that Greer said significant progress was made in trade talks with Cambodia that will allow more export opportunities for US farmers.
  • US said it is taking action to defend America from the UN’s first global carbon tax and that the administration unequivocally rejects this proposal, while the US is considering actions against nations that support this global carbon tax on American consumers. Furthermore, the US said possible actions include probes, visa restrictions, commercial penalties, additional port fees and sanctions on officials.
  • Canadian Industry Minister Joly said the government is working on a new industrial strategy that seeks to open new markets for exporters and prioritise domestic procurement in the face of US tariffs, which have hurt steel, aluminium, forestry and automotive companies. It was also reported that Canadian Trade Minister Sidhu spoke with India’s Commerce Minister Goyal.
  • Switzerland and China will accelerate trade discussions on upgrading their free-trade agreement, following a meeting between Swiss Foreign Minister Cassis and Chinese counterpart Wang on Friday.
  • Indian Trade Delegation is to visit to US this week, via Reuters citing sources; good progress has reportedly been made. India and US are sticking to a fall deadline for an early part of the deal. India looking to buy more energy and gas from the US.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week in the red as the region reacted to last Friday's Trump tariff threats and the subsequent Wall St sell-off, although US equity futures rebounded due to the softer tone from Trump over the weekend, while Japanese markets were shut for a holiday. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in tech, energy, telecoms and defensives, while gold miners are at the other end of the spectrum after prices rebounded back above the USD 4,000/oz level to touch fresh record highs. KOSPI retreated amid tech weakness, and with index heavyweight Samsung Electronics pressured after it was hit by a USD 445.5mln jury verdict for infringing wireless communication patents. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured following the flare-up of US-China trade frictions on Friday after US President Trump threatened massive tariffs on China and announced to impose a 100% additional tariff on China from November 1st, before softening his tone over the weekend, while participants digested the latest Chinese trade data, which showed both exports and imports topped forecasts.

Top Asian News

  • China Customs Vice Minister said great efforts are needed to stabilise foreign trade in Q4 and that China's foreign trade showed resilience with improving structure in Q1-Q3, but the current external environment is still complex and grim with rising uncertainties.
  • US FCC chair said on Friday that US ecommerce websites were removing millions of prohibited Chinese electronic items from companies like Huawei.
  • Dutch government said it is intervening in Dutch chipmaker Nexperia and stated that there are serious administrative shortcomings at Nexperia, while it added that intervention means it may block or reverse company decisions and that the Co. is a subsidiary of Chinese electronics manufacturer Wingtech (600745 CH).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.4%) opened firmer across the board to varying degrees and have traded sideways throughout the morning. Markets are currently cheering US President Trump's softer tone on China, after Friday's threat of 100% tariffs on the region. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. The cyclical sectors are all towards the top of the pile, with Tech and Consumer Products leading whilst Telecoms lag a touch.

Top European News

  • UK Chancellor Reeves is bumping up her plans for tax increases and spending cuts in the November Budget in order to create billions of pounds of additional fiscal “headroom” for the Treasury against future economic shocks, according to FT. It was separately reported that UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly eyeing up a GBP 7bln tax raid on pensions in a desperate bid to plug a black hole in the Budget, with experts warning that Reeves could push up taxes both on pension contributions paid by working people, and on withdrawals by retirees, according to the Express. Meanwhile, The Telegraph reported that Chancellor Reeves has signalled that wealthier households will be asked to “contribute more” in her Budget next month.
  • ECB’s Vujcic suggested he’s comfortable with the current policy settings as he noted that “Markets predict that interest rates will stay where they are,” and stated that “We are at a good place.”
  • French Presidency announced a new government on Sunday with Laurent Nunez named as Interior Minister, Roland Lescure renamed as Finance Minister and Jean-Noel Barrot renamed as Foreign Minister.
  • Several people were injured in the German town of Giessen after someone fired shots in a marketplace, according to DPA citing a police spokesperson.

FX

  • Overall, a firmer day for the Dollar following Friday's hefty fall from grace after US President Trump said there is no reason to meet Chinese President Xi, and threatened China with 100% tariffs. Over the weekend, US President Trump softened his tone and suggested the Xi meeting is not cancelled and “might” still happen, and added the US wants to help, not hurt China, although Trump did not withdraw his tariff threat. The Columbus Day holiday in the US means that cash bond markets are closed, although equity markets are open today. DXY resides in a current 98.83-99.21 band, and within Friday's 98.81-99.43 range.
  • EUR is subdued but within relatively tight parameters with ECB’s Vujcic suggesting he’s comfortable with current policy settings as he noted that “markets predict that interest rates will stay where they are” and stated, "they are at a good place". Attention also remained on the political situation in France, where Lecornu returned as French PM and a new government was unveiled ahead of the budget deadline, with Lecornu asked to present a revised budget to parliament. ING suggests "That seems likely to fail and result in a no-confidence vote later this week, which will leave France without a government. A rise in German WPI this morning did little to move the charts.
  • JPY stands as the clear laggard, closely followed by the CHF, as the haven FX unwind some of the recent haven flows from Friday and amid the Japanese holiday closure overnight. USD/JPY gapped higher overnight after ending Friday's session towards the bottom of a 151.10-153.27 range, with today between 151.72-152.37 parameters.
  • Cable sees mild losses despite a lack of pertinent catalysts this morning, but as the DXY clambers off worst levels, while press reports over the weekend noted that UK Chancellor Reeves is eyeing up a GBP 7bln tax raid on pensions to plug a black hole in the Budget. The pair trades in a 1.3329-1.3366 range at the time of writing.
  • Antipodeans are the clear outperformers this morning amid the partial unwind of Friday's fall, with the AUD surpassing peers and being aided by a boost in base metals and gold also holding firm despite a recovery in the dollar and in spite of the unwind of risk premium across other havens, albeit amid the ongoing US government shutdown.

Fixed Income

  • A softer start to the week for USTs after the Trump-induced jump on Friday. To recap, USTs got to a 113-09 peak on Friday after escalating trade tensions between the US and China. Since, the US President has been a little softer in his language over the weekend and while China has commented, it has not announced a tit-for-tat or escalatory response just yet. Points that have taken some of the tension out of the situation allowing the risk tone to recover to a degree. As such, USTs are down to a 112-30 trough with losses of 6+ ticks at most, though markedly clear of the 112-16+ base from Friday. For the US today is a quieter than usual day owing to Columbus Day, while it is not a formal market holiday cash trade remains closed and was also shut overnight due to the absence of Japan. Nonetheless, Fed’s Paulson (2026) is scheduled and expected to provide a text and partake in a Q&A; we haven’t really heard from Paulson since she replaced Harker at the Philadelphia Fed at end-June.
  • OATs underperform vs peers. In focus as re-appointed PM Lecornu addresses his newly formed cabinet before speaking to parliament at some point today. As a reminder, the current schedule means that a draft 2026 budget of some form needs to be presented today in order to allow discussion/negotiation and passage before year end.
  • Bunds were initially lower, tracking USTs, but are now a touch firmer. Specifics for Germany are primarily on the fiscal front. Handelsblatt reports that the Finance Ministry is considering exempting from the debt brake the interest payments on loans for defence spending. An exemption that would provide a “double-digit billion amount” of leeway in the coming years. No discernible move in Bunds to the release. Bunds in a 129.13 to 129.34 band which is entirely within Friday’s 128.70 to 129.41 parameter.
  • Gilts opened lower by a handful of ticks, directionally in-fitting with peers but with magnitudes a little more contained. Since, the benchmark has been as low as 91.01, posting losses of 15 ticks at most. However, Gilts have reverted back towards opening levels of 91.12 in a 91.01-26 band. Multiple outlets report that the Chancellor is looking at giving herself more than the GBP 9.9bln of headroom she had from her first budget. To do this, she is said to be considering a pension raid, among other measures to target wealthier households, according to the Express/Telegraph.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks climb as markets digest the softening tone from US President Trump following increased trade tensions between China and US, where Trump threatened to impose an additional 100% tariff on China. After the largest selloff on Friday since late June, WTI and Brent have bounced and peaked shy of USD 60/bbl and USD 64/bbl respectively. Benchmarks currently oscillating in a tight c. USD 0.40/bbl range.
  • Precious metals continue to break ATHs, with spot XAU peaking at USD 4078/oz during the APAC session and currently trading near its peak. Shrinking stockpiles of silver in London, in addition to the rising debt concerns and debasement from the dollar, have helped reinforce the rally in XAG. It has been calculated that “free float” silver has dropped to just 200mln ounces, down 75% from a high of over 850mln ounces in mid-2019. Further upside is still the theme in precious metals, with BofA lifting XAU and XAG forecasts to USD 5k/oz and USD 65/oz respectively.
  • Base metals rebound as US President Trump plays down tariff scare. 3M LME Copper gapped higher and peaked at USD 10.67k/t, before finding support at USD 10.5k/t and currently oscillating between parameters formed early this session.
  • Iraq set November Basrah medium crude Official Selling Price to Asia at plus USD 0.85/bbl vs Oman/Dubai and set the OSP to Europe at minus USD 2.80/bbl vs Dated Brent, while it set the OSP to North and South America at minus USD 1.40/bbl vs ASCI, according to SOMO.
  • Ahead of LME Week (Oct 13th), Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to remain in a USD 10,000-11,000/t price range in 2026/2027, but sees downside to aluminium prices, while nickel is likely to remain in oversupply. Elsewhere, the desk sees the most likely medium-term path for silver prices as one of further gains, as Fed cuts attract inflows.
  • BofA lifts gold price forecasts after spot gold hit their USD 4,000/oz forecast; says a 14% increase of investment demand – similar to what was seen this year – could lift gold to USD 5,000/oz, a 28% demand increase could see a rally to USD 6,000/oz. Still expect further upside in 2026: Gold potentially rising to USD 5,000/oz (USD 4,400 average). Silver potentially rising to USD 65/oz (USD 56.25/oz average). Downside risks to watch: US mid-term election outcomes impacting policy implementation. Possible Fed hawkish pivot if data improves. Supreme Court ruling on Trump’s tariffs.
  • Saudi Aramco CEO says oil demand is resilient and there is large growth potential. Maximum sustained production capacity is 12mln BPD, can be done at no additional cost for one year Sees oil demand growing by 1.1-1.3mln BPD in 2025, and then 1.2-1.4mln BPD in 2026.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Egypt will host an international summit on Monday regarding the agreement to end the war in Gaza which will be attended by more than 20 leaders, including US President Trump. It was also reported that UK PM Starmer will travel to Egypt to attend the signing ceremony of the Gaza peace plan, while French President Macron and European Council President Costa will also attend the peace summit in Egypt on Monday.
  • Israeli government spokesperson said the release of hostages will begin early Monday morning and it expects all 20 living hostages to be released together at one time, while Palestinian prisoners will be released once all hostages set to be released on Monday are received.
  • Israeli army radio announced that the first 6 hostages are to be released in Gaza City, while it was reported that Hamas published the names of the 20 hostages to be released.
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister Araqchi said the possibility of Iran joining the Abraham Accords is US President Trump’s wishful thinking and Iran will never recognise an ‘occupier regime, which has committed genocide and killed children’, while he added that Tehran sees no reason for nuclear talks with European powers. Furthermore, he noted that Tehran and Washington are exchanging messages through mediators and that Tehran welcomes a potential ‘fair and balanced’ US nuclear proposal, but stated they have not received any request for nuclear negotiations from any country so far.
  • All living hostages have now been released by Hamas, according to reports citing Kann News.
  • US President Trump says Hamas will comply with plans to disarm; the war is over.

Geopoltics: Ukraine

  • US President Trump said he may tell Russian President Putin that he may send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine if the war is not settled.
  • Ukrainian President Zelensky said he had a good, productive conversation with US President Trump and discussed strengthening air defence, while he is grateful for US readiness to support. Zelensky separately commented that they would only use Tomahawk missiles to pursue military goals, not to attack civilians in Russia, although he also noted that Trump has not yet made a decision on supplying Tomahawks to Ukraine and that he is waiting for Trump’s decision.
  • Ukrainian drone struck Russia’s Bashneft oil refinery in Ufa.
  • Russian Defence Ministry said Russian troops hit fuel and energy infrastructure facilities of Ukraine’s military-industrial complex, while it reported on Sunday morning that Russia shot down 72 Ukrainian drones over the previous day.
  • UK Ministry of Defence said two Royal Air Force aircraft flew a 12-hour mission on Thursday with the US and NATO as they patrolled the border of Russia.

Geopoltics: Other

  • Pakistan’s military said 22 Pakistani soldiers were killed and more than 200 died on the Afghan side in border clashes. Furthermore, Pakistan Foreign Minister said they expect the Taliban government to take concrete measures against terrorist elements and perpetrators that wish to derail Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, while Pakistan will take all possible measures to defend its own territory, sovereignty and people.
  • Afghan Taliban Foreign Minister said Qatar and Saudi Arabia intervened for mediation after Saturday night firing between Afghanistan and Pakistan, while the official added that they have other ways to handle the situation if Pakistan does not want to engage in dialogue.
  • Philippines said a government vessel was rammed by a Chinese ship at sea, while China’s Coast Guard said two Philippine government vessels ‘illegally entered’ waters near Sandy Cay without authorisation, which resulted in a collision, for which the Philippine side bears full responsibility. Furthermore, the Chinese Coast Guard stated that it lawfully took control measures against Philippine vessels and resolutely expelled them.
  • North Korean Leader Kim held talks with Russia’s Medvedev and said the military must evolve to destroy all threats, while Kim said the nation’s military heroism will not only be seen in the defence of North Korea but also in outposts of socialist construction. Furthermore, Kim told Medvedev that he hopes to continue to strengthen cooperation between the two countries and closely engage in diverse exchanges and contacts to achieve common goals, according to KCNA.
  • China and North Korea pledged to develop strategic communication and will strengthen strategic cooperation.

US Event Calendar

  • 12:55 pm: Fed’s Paulson Speaks at NABE

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

It's hard to know where to start this morning with a continued US shutdown seemingly the least of our concerns these days. The plates currently spinning in markets are 1) the sudden resumption of trade hostilities between the US and China on Friday; 2) the reappointment of Lecornu as French Prime Minister late on Friday but with no obvious signs that he'll find life any easier than what promoted him to resign a week before; 3) the collapse of the governing coalition in Japan on Friday just a week after Takaichi was elected as LDP leader which will make radical policymaking more challenging and even threaten her nomination as PM; 4) The US intervening to prop up the Argentinian Peso ahead of domestic mid-term elections (President Milei is an ally of Trump) in less than 2 weeks; 5) the London Silver market seeing one of the biggest short squeezes in history; 6) a peace deal with Hamas and Israel which should see the remaining hostages released today after two years of captivity; 7) signs of weakness in US credit, after the First Brands collapse a couple of weeks back, and bubbling private credit fears, post a long period of being bullet proof; and 8) a large fall in Crypto late on Friday, including a $10,000 fall in bitcoin in just a few hours. There’s probably more but these are the main themes in global markets.

After Friday’s sell-off where the S&P 500 (-2.71%) fell the most since April 10th, just as US Treasuries were under their peak post Liberation Day stress, Asian markets are also seeing a weak session this morning. US futures are bouncing though on hopes that US and China can negotiate through their disagreements. Throughout the region, the Hang Seng Tech index (-4.54%) is at the forefront of losses, while the Hang Seng index is also sinking (-3.49%), primarily influenced by substantial declines in major Chinese internet and technology companies. In addition, the CSI (-1.76%) and the Shanghai Composite (-1.30%) are also lower. Elsewhere Japan is shut for a public holiday, while the KOSPI (-1.62%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.99%) are also weak. S&P 500 (+1.22%) and NASDAQ (+1.65%) futures are rebounding strongly as the US leadership rhetoric over the weekend showed willingness to negotiate.

When Trump returned to power, I was convinced it would mark the beginning of a much weaker US-China relationship, with a real risk of significant decoupling. Yet, over the past few months, US trade tensions have often seemed more focused on traditional allies, while the relationship with China appeared to be improving, albeit after some aggressive tariff threats. But Friday’s developments were a reminder of the underlying tension that still exists.

I suspect the recent improvement was driven more by US fears of empty shelves if the punitive tariffs threatened post-Liberation Day were actually implemented. Perhaps the US needed time to adjust. Since then, the mood music has been notably more positive, and it’s still very possible, maybe even likely, that both sides are simply trying to strengthen their near-term negotiating positions. However, these tensions will probably be a recurring theme in the years ahead as both sides compete on the global stage for dominance.

China currently holds considerable leverage in the rare earths market and seems keen to use it to secure a better deal—particularly in the chip sector, where the US has imposed export controls. So, this battle is shaping up as rare earths versus AI chips.

Interestingly this morning's data show that China is diversifying their exports. While exports to the US decreased by -27.0% year-on-year in September, marking the sixth consecutive month of double-digit declines, growth in its global exports reached a six-month high of +8.3% (compared to +6.6% expected), significantly surpassing the +4.4% year-on-year increase recorded in August. Imports rose by +7.4% in September, exceeding the forecast of +1.8%, resulting in a surplus of $90.5 billion.

It’s worth remembering that Trump and Xi were expected to meet on the sidelines of the APEC 2025 summit in South Korea on October 31st–November 1st. Also note that the suspension of higher US tariffs on Chinese goods expires on November 10th. There’s still plenty of time for negotiations, and I suspect the market will begin to price in a reasonable probability of a deal once the initial shock fades. For what its worth, Polymarket has the probabilities of the two Presidents meeting by October 31st at 62% this morning, down from a peak of 88% last week but up from around 35% at the lows on Friday night. So there is a belief emerging that this is mostly negotiating tactics on both sides. Trump posted on social media yesterday “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”. Meanwhile JD Vance also opened the door to negotiations yesterday. We will see.  

Onto France, where the motto seems to be “if at first you don’t succeed, try, try again.” Whether this time will be any different is a moot point, but with Lecornu reappointed as PM late last week, they will be having another go at passing a budget and forming a government early this week. Polymarket currently shows a 30% probability that fresh elections will be called before the end of October, and a 63% chance by year-end. There’s also a 20% chance of elections being announced by this Friday.  

In terms of key events this week, the US CPI won't happen as expected on Wednesday, but we now know it will be released on the 24th October. The special treatment during a shutdown is due to the fact that September’s CPI is a crucial input into the government’s calculation of the “cost of living adjustment” (COLA) that is applied each year to several categories of federal outlays. So it’s likely that this is a one-off data wise. The main highlights elsewhere start today with Columbus Day in the US, with bond markets closed but equity markets open. The Annual World Bank and IMF meetings also start today and run through into Saturday. They’ll be plenty to discuss. Tomorrow sees UK employment numbers, the German ZEW, Fed Chair Powell speaking, and the start of US earnings season (more below). Wednesday sees Chinese inflation, Eurozone Industrial Production, and the Fed Beige book and Thursday sees the US NAHB index. There are lots of Central Bankers speakers which you can see in the day-by-day calendar at the end as usual.

As briefly touched upon above, US banks will kick off the Q3 earnings season tomorrow with notable companies reporting including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Citigroup. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America will follow on Wednesday. In tech, the spotlight will be on semiconductor firms ASML (Wednesday) and TSMC (Thursday). Other earnings highlights this week include Samsung, Johnson & Johnson and Blackrock.

Recapping last week now and all was relatively quiet until the US/China trade tensions flared up late on Friday. The S&P 500 ended the week down -2.43% (-2.71% Friday) with Tech stocks underperforming significantly on Friday, as the NASDAQ was down -3.56% (-2.53% on the week), and the Magnificent 7 down -3.68% (-2.69% on the week). This was despite news that OpenAI had agreed to purchase tens of billions of dollars of chips from AMD, which sent its shares up +30.5% last week (-7.7% Friday). It was the worst week for the NASDAQ since mid-April, and the worst since mid-May for the S&P 500. The VIX index of volatility rose to 21.7pts (+5.2pts Friday, +5.0pts on the week), which was the highest level since late-June.

European indices were closed before the final leg of Friday’s sell-off, so they did out-perform. France led losses though with a weekly decline of -2.05% (-1.54% Friday). Franco-German 10-year spreads closed the week +2.4bp wider (+1.3bps Friday) at 83.4bps. The Stoxx 600 was down -1.10% (-1.25% Friday), the FTSE 100 -0.67% (-0.86% Friday), and the DAX -0.56% (-1.50% Friday).

In fixed income, US treasury yields saw a significant rally on Friday with 2yr yields ending the week -7.4bps lower (-9.1bps Friday) at 3.50%, 10yr yields were down -8.7bps ( -10.6bps Friday) to 4.03%, and 30yr Treasuries were down -9.3bps (-10.3bps Friday) to 4.62%. 10yr bund yields rallied -5.4bps (-5.9bps Friday) on the week and BTPs were down -5.0bps (-4.7bps Friday). 

Credit markets also saw their biggest wobble since Liberation Day. USD IG spreads were 6bps wider on the week (+4bps Friday), while USD HY spreads were +36bps wider on the week (+22bps Friday). That is the largest weekly backup for both markets since the first week of April, when the initial tariffs were announced. This also comes as there have been growing fears of stress in private credit markets and Business Development Companies, whose stock prices fell sharply even prior to Friday’s selloff. EUR credit markets were not immune to this stress as EUR IG spreads were +4bps wider on the week (+3bps Friday) and EUR HY spreads gapped +37bps wider (+15bps Friday).

In commodities, gold continued its climb to break through $4,000/oz last week and finished the week up +3.38% (+1.03% Friday) at $4,018/oz. Brent crude declined -2.79% (-3.82% Friday) to $62.73/bbl, as the first phase of the Israel-Hamas truce began on Friday day, with thousands of Palestinians already moving back north and the Israeli army leaving the enclave.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 08:41

From 2007 and 2008: The Compleat UberNerd

Calculated Risk -

CR Note: On vacation. I will return on October 21st (If I don't get lost!)

In December 2006, my friend Doris "Tanta" Dungey started writing for Calculated Risk.

From December 2006, until she passed away from ovarian cancer on Nov 30, 2008, Tanta was my co-blogger. Tanta worked as a mortgage banker for 20 years, and we started chatting in early 2005 about the housing bubble and the changes in lending practices. In 2006, Tanta was diagnosed with late stage cancer, and she took an extended medical leave while undergoing treatment. While on medical leave she wrote for this blog, and her writings received widespread attention and acclaim.

If you want to understand the mortgage industry, read Tanta's posts (here is The Compleat UberNerd and a Compendium of Tanta's Posts).

As an example, here is a brief excerpt from Foreclosure Sales and REO For UberNerds
The following is not an exhaustive discussion of all of the issues involved in foreclosures and REO. It’s a start at unpacking some of the concepts and definitions. We have been seeing, and are going to continue to see, a lot of information presented on foreclosure sales, REO sales, and their impacts on existing home transaction volumes and prices in various market areas. As always with “UberNerd” posts, this is long and excruciating. Proceed with typical motivation as you may consider your own best interest in an open market in blog postings.
And an excerpts from Mortgage Servicing for UberNerds
StillLearning asked in the comments about mortgage servicing, and since y’all are nerds, not dummies, here’s my highly-selective occasionally-oversimplified summary for you that skips the boring parts like how your check gets out of the “lockbox” and that stuff. We can discuss extra-credit issues like “excess servicing” and “subservicing” and “SFAS 144 meets MSR” and “negative convexity” and other kinds of inside baseball in the comments. There is a lot that can be said about loan servicing, but let’s start with the basics:

Servicers have two major types of servicing portfolio: loans they service for themselves and loans they service for other investors. In accounting terms, the “compensation” is the same, meaning that even if you are the noteholder, you pay yourself to service the loans in the same way that an outside investor would pay you, and it shows on the books that way. The differences in compensation stem from the basic fact that one is generally more motivated to do a good job servicing (particularly collecting and efficiently liquidating REO) for one’s own investment than for someone else’s.
Also see In Memoriam: Doris "Tanta" Dungey for photos, links to obituaries in the NY Times, Washington Post and much more.

Macron Unveils New French Cabinet, Rejects Resignation Calls Amid Political Crisis

Zero Hedge -

Macron Unveils New French Cabinet, Rejects Resignation Calls Amid Political Crisis

President Emmanuel Macron unveiled a new cabinet on Sunday after reappointing Sébastien Lecornu as prime minister, an urgent maneuver to stabilize what has become one of France's worst political crises in decades. As one UBS analyst quipped to clients earlier on Monday, "No one had Lecornu 2.0 on their bingo cards." Also, Macron dismissed mounting calls for his resignation amid a plunge in sentiment polls, as the embattled globalist president has burned through five prime ministers in less than two years

Lecornu, who resigned at the start of last week before being reinstated Friday, faces the daunting task of holding Macron's weakened centrist alliance together as parliament remains deeply divided. The new cabinet will meet on Tuesday, when Lecornu is expected to present a new budget proposal. 

Macron also reappointed key ministers, including Roland Lescure (Finance), Amélie de Montchalin (Budget), and Jean-Noël Barrot (Foreign Affairs). Laurent Nuñez replaced Bruno Retailleau as Interior Minister after Retailleau's Republicans withdrew support for the government.

Here's commentary on the ongoing political storm in France from UBS analyst Simon Penn:

Sébastien Lecornu is back as French Prime Minister. After four days away, he was reappointed by President Macron late on Friday night to have another go. It's unlikely anyone had that among their expected outcomes. Following his reappointment, Lecornu said his priority was to get back to trying to repair the French public finances. Lecornu is now expected to name a new cabinet soon. He also needs to propose a new budget on Monday, if legislation is to be adopted by year-end. Lecornu said he had accepted President Macron's offer "out of duty". Over the weekend, he has been trying to rebuild the cabinet, one in which all concerned will stay.

Late Sunday, Lecornu wrote on X, "A mission government is appointed to provide a budget for France before the end of the year." 

However, Marine Le Pen's National Rally and the far-left have already pledged to back no-confidence votes this week, meaning Lecornu must rely on abstentions from the Socialists and Republicans to survive. 

The Socialist Party has demanded that Macron suspend pension reform that raised the retirement age, new taxes on the wealthy, and loosen fiscal rules for more deficit spending. Macron's centrist and center-right allies oppose such moves but remain divided over whether to back Lecornu's government.

Earlier today, Macron arrived in Egypt to attend a gathering of world leaders aimed at ending the war in Gaza. He remained defiant and blamed political rivals for destabilizing France and said he had no plans to resign before his second and final term ends in 2027.

"I ensure continuity and stability, and I will continue to do so," Macron told reporters, urging people not to forget that the mandate given to the president means "to serve, to serve, and to serve."

Despite the worst political turmoil in decades, French bonds and equities were flat on Monday, with CAC 40 futures tracking broader European gains. 

UBS analyst Nicola Brion told clients, "France's President Macron reappointed Lecornu as PM and presented the new cabinet. The CAC is up 60bp, mostly led by luxury while French banks trade broadly flat." 

Related:

. . . 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 08:05

10 Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

Larry Ellison’s Latest Gambit to Keep Oracle on Top Is His Biggest Bet Ever:  Oracle has roared into the AI gold rush, but it’s taking on huge amounts of debt to do so. Last month’s $18 billion bond offering could be just the beginning. (Barron’s)

The Supreme Court has given Trump early wins. Now, it has to explain why: As the Supreme Court begins its new term, the legal basis of these rulings is facing fresh scrutiny. The 9 justices, of whom 3 were appointed in President Donald Trump’s first term, must issue conclusive, reasoned rulings on some of Mr. Trump’s most controversial policies, from emergency tariffs to birthright citizenship and immigration enforcement. The stakes are high for the administration, the contours of U.S. democracy, and for the court itself, which faces searing questions about its political tilt and institutional integrity. (Christian Science Monitor) see also Only 35% of Americans trust the US judicial system. This is catastrophic: American confidence in the courts has hit a record low across party lines. This is worrying – if not surprising. (The Guardian)

• Bill Ackman Says He’s ‘Uncancelable’ The founder of Pershing Square Holdings opens up about his mistakes, his anti-DEI crusades and why he still hates to pay for parking. (Wall Street Journal)

Social Media Is Now Shrinking: And their latest move is a “jump the shark” moment that will accelerate the decline. (The Honest Broker) see also Social media destroyed one of America’s key advantages: We used to be able to spread out. Now we’re locked in with each other. (Noahpinion)

Polymarket Founder Is Youngest Self-Made Billionaire After Deal With NYSE Owner: Intercontinental Exchange Inc is investing as much as $2 billion in Polymarket at an $8 billion pre-money valuation, making Coplan the youngest self-made billionaire tracked by the Bloomberg Billionaires Index. (Bloomberg)

What Getting 105 Blood Tests From a Health Startup Taught Me: Function Health’s tests go beyond what many primary care doctors include in “outdated” annual panels, he adds. While doctors traditionally check LDL, HDL, and total cholesterol, for example, they don’t always include measures like lipoprotein(a), apolipoprotein B, and LDL pattern, all of which can predict future heart health. And while it’s common to find out your calcium and vitamin D levels, I’d never before had a doctor check my ferritin or iron binding capacity. (Time) see also Why do women outlive men? A study of 1,176 species points to an answer. But the fact that this lifespan gap holds true regardless of country or century indicates something deeper is also at play. A growing body of evidence suggests that women’s relative longevity may derive, in part, from having double X chromosomes, a redundancy that protects them against harmful mutations. (Washington Post)

A Powerhouse Writer Found One Word to Change the Debate About Tech: Cory Doctorow’s new book looks to offer comfort, and solutions, to the inescapable feeling that digital platforms have gotten worse. (New York Times)

Our Brains Evolved to Socialize—but Max Out at About 150 Friends: The size of our social networks is limited even in the age of social media. (Wall Street Journal)

The Mind-Altering Effect of a Good Workout Routine: Few things lift your mood more than going to the gym. Exercise your body, and your mind will thank you. (The Atlantic) see also What a gut microbiome scientist wants you to eat every day: Focus on eating fiber-rich foods, especially those high in a special type of fiber called resistant starch. (Washington Post)

Drum Machine History: Even Better Than The Real Thing? How the drum machine, despite being a machine, proved just to have just enough heart to dominate the pop charts. (Tedium)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this weekend with Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, which manages $16 trillion in for 20 million clients. Timmer, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT), is part of Fidelity’s Global Asset Allocation (GAA) group, anf specializes in asset allocation and global macro strategy.

 

The current cyclical bull market was born three years ago today (Oct 13)

Source: Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Wave Of Antifa Terror Continues In Germany: Hamburg AfD Politicians' Home Addresses Doxxed, State Security Services Investigate

Zero Hedge -

Wave Of Antifa Terror Continues In Germany: Hamburg AfD Politicians' Home Addresses Doxxed, State Security Services Investigate

Via Remix News,

The far-left extremist portal “Indymedia,” associated with Antifa, was used to target three politicians of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Hamburg, including the publishing of their home addresses and calls to take action against the “fascists.” The information was published both on the platform but also on stickers, which were put up all over the neighborhoods where the three politicians live.

As a result, a state investigation has been launched.

Two AfD city council members were targeted, as well as a district council member, with the stickers distributed in the neighborhoods of all three individuals. The stickers featured the address and photos of all three politicians, along with a message that read: “Attention, AfD fascists in your neighborhood.” 

The same information was published on the Indymedia website, which is well-known for publishing manifestos and calls to action for Antifa terror groups. Recently, a left-wing group took responsibility on the platform for a series of attacks on Berlin’s electrical grid, which resulted in the longest-running blackout in Berlin’s history since the end of the Cold War.

Indymedia also published the message that the “three AfD politicians in Hamburg have been outed.” The message read that the AfD politicians had been “visited” in their neighborhoods. The post also included a message: “We greet all Antifa members in hiding and in prison! Lots of strength and love to the antifascist Maja! We stand together! Free ALL Antifas! Fight Fascism!”

“Maja” refers to the alleged left-wing trans person currently incarcerated in Hungary and standing trial for a wave of vicious attacks in Budapest. Hungarian authorities state that Maja was involved in these serious assaults, which were committed by the Antifa terror group known as the Hammer Gang.

Dirk Nockemann, the Hamburg AfD parliamentary group leader, condemned the action as “attempts at intimidation” and said they should be “condemned in the strongest possible terms.” Nockemann also called on left-wing parties in the Hamburg Parliament to condemn the terrorizing of political opponents.

“Antifa means terror. It is a left-wing terrorist and anti-democratic group that, like no other, stands for public denunciation and violence against dissidents,” wrote Nockermann. He criticized political leaders who have often associated themselves with Antifa. The previous interior minister, Nancy Faeser, even wrote for Antifa Magazine shortly before she was installed in her position.

AfD politicians have long been targeted in attacks, including arson attacks and assaults. Bernd Baumann, parliamentary director of the AfD parliamentary group in the Bundestag, spoke to WELT TV about his own experiences after being named by Antifa via “Indymedia.” Baumann described the constant threat, saying, “I’m constantly being attacked on my house. My wife is really scared.” To feel safe, he said he installed “steel doors and got a dog so his wife could sleep again.”

Baumann also recounted an incident where his tenant’s car was burned in front of his house. He detailed the immediate online claim of responsibility: “And the next morning, Antifa wrote on Indymedia that we had once again burned an expensive limousine in front of Bernd Baumann’s house.” The resulting damages and fear meant he “could no longer rent the house.”

In Hamburg itself, AfD politicians have already been brutally assaulted, including in an incident from 2023.

Notably, the West has been plagued with a wave of extremist left-wing violence as of late, with numerous assassination attempts against Donald Trump, along with the recent murder of Charlie Kirk, which was allegedly committed by Antifa and trans activist Tyler Robinson. As a result, Antifa has been declared to be a domestic terror threat in the United States by Donald Trump.

Other European leaders have called for similar action against Antifa. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who was nearly killed last year in an assassination attempt, is one of the European leaders attempting to highlight the risks coming from left-wing terrorists.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 03:30

Where Beer Prices Have Risen (And Fallen) The Most Since 2020

Zero Hedge -

Where Beer Prices Have Risen (And Fallen) The Most Since 2020

In Boston, the price of beer has shot up 43% since 2020, the fastest jump in America.

Not only that, beer inflation in Boston is the eighth-highest worldwide, driven by higher ingredient and materials costs.

This trend has been seen in many big cities globally, surpassing the rate of inflation.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the cities with the steepest beer price increases and decreases in the last five years, based on data from Deutsche Bank.

Top 10 Biggest Beer Price Increases

Below, we show cities with the highest beer price inflation. Figures represent the nominal change in an average price of a 0.5L bottle of domestic beer since 2020.

In Argentina’s capital, beer has jumped an eye-watering 89% since 2020, costing $2.23 on average in 2025.

Meanwhile, European cities account for six of the 10 largest price increases, with Birmingham, UK leading at a 63% surge. Warsaw, Poland follows closely with a 59% jump, fueled by higher excise taxes and persistent inflation.

Mexico City has also faced mounting price pressures. In 2022, Grupo Modelo raised prices after global beer production costs spiked by an average of 62% over the prior two years. Added to this, rising tourism and an influx of digital nomads have further driven prices upward.

Top 10 Biggest Beer Price Declines

In contrast, here are the cities with the largest drop in beer prices:

Beer prices have sunk the most in Dubai (-37%) amid easing liquor laws, which previously put a 30% tax on alcohol sales.

In Tokyo, beer has also become increasingly affordable as the yen stands at 30-year lows to the U.S. dollar and several other major currencies. As a result, prices are now 30% cheaper than in 2020, where domestic beer can cost around $2.14.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the top countries by beer consumption in the world.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 02:45

UK Digital ID: The BritCard Bait And Switch

Zero Hedge -

UK Digital ID: The BritCard Bait And Switch

Authored by Iain Davis via Off-Guardian.org,

In my previous article I suggested that the UK’s proposed “mandatory” digital ID, called the BritCard, was a bait and switch psyop. I posited that the arguments presented by Keir Starmer’s purported Labour government, to supposedly justify the BritCard rollout, coupled with the timing of the announcement, the apparent inability to understand public opinion, and the lack of necessity for the BritCard, indicated that there was something amiss with the so-called government’s BritCard proposition.

It seems to me that the purpose of the BritCard gambit is to frame the Overton Window for the public debate about digital ID in the UK.

People can accept or reject it, imagining the BritCard represents the totality of digital ID infrastructure. If the population rejects the BritCard they may well do so under the misapprehension they have defeated digital ID in the UK.

Subsequent developments have strengthened my view.

Digital ID is a global policy initiative that governments around the world, including the British government, are following, not leading.

It is the United Nation’s (UN’s) Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16.9 which promises to “by 2030, provide legal identity for all, including birth registration.”

Even before the ink was officially dry on SDG 16.9, the ID2020 group, tasked with meeting the “identity” sustainability target, outlined what achieving SDG 16.9 would mean in practical terms:

[C]reate technology-driven public-private partnerships to achieve the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goal of providing legal identity for everyone on the planet.

ID2020 further clarified the global policy objective:

By 2030, enabling access to digital identity for every person on the planet.

The objective of SDG 16.9 is to force not just approved “legal identity” but digital ID on every human being on earth. To this end, the UN has already created a nascent global digital ID database called ID4D. The ID4D Global Dataset aim to capture the data of “all people aged 0 and above.”

Run by the World Bank Group—a UN specialised agency—ID4D informs us:

The World Bank Group’s Identification for Development (ID4D) Initiative harnesses global and cross-sectoral knowledge, World Bank financing instruments, and partnerships to help countries realize the transformational potential of identification (ID) systems. [. . .] The aim is to enable all people to exercise their rights and access better services and economic opportunities in line with the Sustainable Development Goals.

At first reading this might not seem so bad. Therefore, it is very important to be clear about what it implies.

Your access to all “services” and all “economic opportunities” will be dependent upon you possessing the requisite digital ID; the entire economy—all services and all economic activity—must comply with “Sustainable Development Goals.” This means everything will be ordered by the global governance system, not by national governments. Finally, “partnership” means public-private partnerships.

If you think I may have put an unwarranted pejorative spin on the ID4D statement consider that the UN’s SDG 16.9 makes no mention of “digital ID,” only “legal identity.” Yet, ID2020, the UN’s own body responsible for implementing SDG 16.9, had already committed to the global rollout of digital ID before the UN officially announced its global governance ID agenda.

The UN “regime” is not an honourable or trustworthy organisation and we must interpret its goals and public statements carefully to understand the actual implications. With far less fanfare, and allowing for a suitable cooling-off period, in 2023, the UN finally came out of the closet and simply said it wanted “Digital IDs linked with bank or mobile money accounts.”

The global public-private partnership (G3P)—essentially a nexus between central banks, international policy think tanks, the UN, multinational corporations, NGO’s and other “philanthropic” organisations, and governments—is propelling the global rollout of digital ID. ID4D “partners” include the Gates Foundation, the Omidyar Network, and the World Economic Forum (WEF) that represents “leading global companies” seeking to “shape the future.”

Leading WEF Partners include US data and AI giant Palantir. The WEF runs a number of global research “Centres” and Palantir is a key partner in five of them including the Centres for Cybersecurity and for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

The UN began as a public-private partnership. In 1998, having undergone a “quiet revolution,” it formally shifted away from being an intergovernmental organisation to become a public-private global governance regime that promotes “business-friendly legislation.”

 

Like the UN ID4D project, the central bank of central banks—the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)—envisages a “unified ledger” that will oversee every transaction on earth. The power to control all commerce extends to all business to business (B2B) transactions. The Bank of England and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are among the central banks working on the associated BIS-led Project Agora:

The project aims to test the desirability, feasibility and viability of a multi-currency unified ledger for wholesale cross-border payments. [. . .] The project is a public-private collaboration that seeks to use new technology to improve the correspondent banking model.

To appreciate what this new global monetary system is designed to achieve we need to understand “tokenization.” McKinsey explains:

Tokenization is the process of creating a digital representation of a real thing. [. . .] [T]okenization is a digitization process to make assets more accessible, [. . .] tokenization is used for cybersecurity and to obfuscate the identity of the payment itself, essentially to prevent fraud. [. . .] [T]okenized financial assets are moving from pilot to at-scale development. McKinsey analysis indicates that tokenized market capitalization could reach around $2 trillion by 2030 (excluding cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and stablecoins like Tether). [. . .] Larry Fink, the chairman and CEO of BlackRock, said in January 2024: “We believe the next step going forward will be the tokenization of financial assets, and that means every stock, every bond … will be on one general ledger.”

The BIS has been planning to seize the opportunity presented by tokenisation operating on a “one general” or a unified ledger for some time:

A new type of financial market infrastructure – a unified ledger – could capture the full benefits of tokenisation by combining central bank money, tokenised deposits and tokenised assets on a programmable platform

Digital ID is inextricably linked to “onboarding”—accessing and using—programmable digital currencies (PDCs) such as stablecoins and central bank digital currency (CBDC). The push to get us to adopt programmable digital currency is also a public-private global project. The BIS spells out why digital ID is a prerequisite for using programmable digital currency:

Identification at some level is [. . .] central in the design of CBDCs. This calls for a CBDC that is account-based and ultimately tied to a digital identity. [. . .] A digital identity scheme, which could combine information from a variety of sources [. . .] will thus play an important role in such an account based design. By drawing on information from national registries and from other public and private sources, such as education certificates, tax and benefits records, property registries etc, a digital ID serves to establish individual identities online. [. . .] [S]ystems in which the private and official sector develop a common governance framework and strive for interoperability between their services, [. . .] represent the furthest-reaching model. These allow administrative databases to be linked up, further enhancing the functionality and usefulness of digital ID.

The BIS is quite clear about the interoperable model that will “allow administrative databases to be linked up.” In such a model your biometric—biological identifier—digital ID (e-ID) will be constructed by your use of the “interoperable” system framework.

Your e-ID will provide both public and private organisations access to your data. For example, as long as they have the required access permission, approved private finance “partners” can check your identity attributes, such as your qualifications, tax records, history of any welfare payments you may have received, and assess the value of any of your other e-ID attributes, such as property or other assets you might own. This can help them decide if they will offer you credit, how much interest to charge you, whether to offer you insurance or not, and at what price, etc.

In addition, every time you make a transaction with your PDC—by virtue of it being directly connected to your e-ID—public and private parties with sufficient access permissions to the application programmable interface (API) layer will be able to use your e-ID attributes to make decisions about processing payments, in real time, such as allowing or disallowing your transactions.

The BIS illuminates:

APIs ensure the secure exchange of data and instructions between parties in digital interactions. [. . .] Crucially, APIs can be set up to transmit only data relevant to a specific transaction. [. . .] An example is “open banking”, which allows third-party financial service providers to access transaction and other financial data from traditional financial institutions through APIs. For example, a fintech [Financial Technology company] could use banks’ transaction data to assess credit risk and offer a loan at lower, more transparent rates than those offered by traditional financial institutions. [. . .] Payment APIs may offer software that allows organisations to create interoperable digital payment services to connect customers, merchants, banks and other financial providers. [. . .] [T]he recipient’s bank (or financial services provider) needs to agree to the transaction on the customer’s behalf. During this [. . .] step, it is verified that the transaction satisfies rules and regulations. [. . .] Once there is agreement, in [the next] step funds are transferred and made available to the recipient immediately.

Such a system could, and it may offer all kinds of cost savings and other benefits. But behavioural and, ultimately, social and economic control, is what the likes of the UN, the BIS, and their partners desire. Speaking in October 2020, BIS General Manager Agustín Carstens explained why PDCs are nothing like any form of money we are currently familiar with:

The key difference with the CBDC is the central bank will have absolute control on the rules and regulations that will determine the use of that expression of central bank liability, and also we will have the technology to enforce that.

Again, “interoperability,” enabling universally recognised e-ID to be assigned to all transactions, using internationally accepted PDCs, allows API’s to precisely control any transaction, anywhere, between any parties, by using digital agreements, often called “smart contracts.” The BIS collaborated on Operation Rosalind with the Bank of England to develop the smart contract functionality we will all be subjected to in the UK once we accept e-ID and, as planned, PDCs.

Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT)—most likely blockchain—will record, oversee and control all digital transactions on a “unified ledger.” The Operation Rosalind social engineers concluded:

Ledger API layer: This layer translated smart contracts into API calls and transformed API requests into a format understood by, and actionable for, the central bank ledger. [. . .] This could support many use cases, such as third-party payment initiation, external smart contract applications and budgeting applications.

Smart contracts on the API layer could be used to automatically initiate “third party payment” such as taking taxes, fines, private penalty charges, utility payments, and so on, directly from your “digital wallet.” Using smart contracts, your e-ID assigned PDC can be programmed, in real time, to control what you buy, from whom, where and when.

Bo Li, the former Deputy Governor of the People’s Bank of China, and the current Deputy Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), speaking at the Central Bank Digital Currencies for Financial Inclusion: Risks and Rewards symposium, explained the power that programmable digital currency provides to those with the approved ledger permissions:

CBDC can allow government agencies and private sector players to program [CBDC] to create smart-contracts, to allow targeted policy functions. For example[,] welfare payments [. . .], consumption coupons, [. . .] food stamps. By programming, CBDC money can be precisely targeted [to] what kind of [things] people can own, and what kind of use [for which] this money can be utilised. For example, [. . .] for food.

Whatever falsehoods the government or the media might tell you about digital ID, the fact is digital ID is a global governance policy initiative and the objective is to control our behavior and our lives. Digital ID (e-ID) is the keystone for a global system of oppression and once we have accepted e-ID the rollout of a global network of programmable digital currencies (PDCs) will immediately follow.

Whether we accept BritCard or not, the UK government has already adopted what the BIS called “the furthest reaching model” of e-ID. The system is managed by the UK government’s Office for Digital Identity Attributes. The “Office” has registered the current slew of private companies that have won bids to provide “digital ID and attribute services” to all of us in the UK. Notable e-ID and attribute service providers include Deloitte (Go Verify) and Mastercard.

In order to become a “trustworthy digital verification service (DVS),” global corporations like Deloitte and Mastercard must adhere to the UK Digital Identity and Attributes Trust Framework. The framework sets the “technical and operating standards for use across the UK’s economy [that] will help to enable international and domestic interoperability.” International interoperability will ensure all the data harvested from the UK population is available to the architects of global governance. Possibly via the ID4D or the BIS unified ledger, for example.

In order to ensure both domestic and international interoperability between all e-ID products and services, the DVS-provider must use the approved “data schema.” Section 14 of the framework provides all the technical information-exchange standards that will enable interoperability.

The interoperability standards allow all the data harvested from you to be stored and transmitted “in a machine-readable format” that is “interoperable with other certified services and relying parties” both “in the UK and internationally.” This means, for instance, that data seized from your use of your digital biometric driving licence, or passport, can be connected to the separate “trustworthy” DVS provided by, for example, the issuer of your bank card.

This interoperable system means that a single, government issued BritCard is completely unnecessary and achieves nothing whatsoever. The e-ID framework that the government has been developing for years, and already has in place, does not need and does not benefit from BritCard.

Yet, when more than 2.8 million people apparently signed a government petition opposing Britcard, in response, the government said:

We will introduce a digital ID within this Parliament. [. . .] [T]he new digital ID will build on GOV.UK One Login and the GOV.UK Wallet to drive the transformation of public services. Over time, this system will allow people to access government services – such as benefits or tax records – without needing to remember multiple logins or provide physical documents.

Beyond the demonstrable reality that the government doesn’t care what we think, this statement is gibberish. The GOV.UK One Login system was designed around the interoperable UK Digital Identity and Attributes Trust Framework. Farcically, One Login’s hopeless cybersecurity failings led the government to revoke the “framework” accreditation for its own service in May of this year. The government then handed multi-million pound contracts to PA Consulting and the US Tech Giant Accenture to try and fix all the One Login problems and hopefully regain its own interoperable framework accreditation.

BritCard is not framework compliant and is not listed as a DVS-provider. The BritCard concept has not been put out for either market or public consultation. BritCard does not exist in any meaningful sense and is nothing but a PR stunt. The only question is what is the purpose of the stunt. There are some telling clues.

Palantir is a “data-mining juggernaut” that works closely with US intelligence and national security agencies. It is a UK strategic defence partner, and operates the UK NHS Federated Data Platform which “connects vital health information across the NHS.”

Palantir also operates a number of its own strategic partnerships with other global corporations. For example, its partnership with KPMG affords KPMG access to “Palantir Foundry”—Palantir’s AI software platform. The government then awarded KPMG the contract to promote and rollout Palantir’s NHS Federated Data Platform across the country. This is understandable because Palantir Foundry is also the AI software platform digitally transforming the UK government.

Palantir’s partnership with the UK digital verification service (DVS) provider Deloitte enables both companies to “break down institutional barriers, organize fragmented data, and transform information into decisive action.” Its partnership with Accenture will supposedly deliver “transformational outcomes,” and its partnership with fellow US intelligence cut-out Oracle will “accelerate AI” for businesses and governments. This is why the UK government has given Oracle the contract to do just that.

With its vast array of networked connections into the heart of the British state, it is no surprise that the UK government is heavily reliant on Palantir Gotham to plan missions and run investigations “using disparate data.” This will enable state operatives—or Palantir operatives, depending on how you look at it—to “produce actionable intelligence based on the full ecosystem of available data.” For Palantir, that “available data” in the UK appears to be pretty much all of it.

In the UK, Gotham is fully “interoperable with any legacy system,” quickly makes “connections across massive scale, dispersed datasets,” and enables the sharing of “investigative reports” either “internally” or with “partner agencies,” who ever they may be. If it existed, BritCard would add nothing other than additional hassle.

Once again, interoperability, is the key to hoovering up data from all “dispersed datasets” and Palantir is among the North American, UK, and European global technology firms to have already invested in the interoperable digital attributes framework in the UK. Louis Mosley, Executive Vice President (EVP) of the UK and Europe for Palantir Technologies, told the House of Commons Science, Innovation and Technology Committee—which was deliberating on the UK government’s e-ID plans:

Interoperability is our [Palantir’s] bread and butter. As the Chair described, one of the core value-adds of the software is the fact that it can interact with and read and write data from pretty much every system out there. […] [W]e provide an enormous amount of control and governance to the organisations that use our software.

With this mouthwatering and unprecedented control and governance on the near horizon, what on earth possessed the government to seemingly throw the whole thing into jeopardy by trying to stamp digital ID onto a very resistant British population? When it came to office a little over a year ago, Labour categorically rejected digital ID. Then Home Secretary Yvette Cooper said: “It’s not in our manifesto. That’s not not our approach.”

What’s changed? Has Starmer’s government lost its collective mind?

Or is there a more plausible explanation?

In a very revealing interview with former BBC political editor John Pienaar for Times Radio, Louis Mosley made a series of claims regarding why Palantir had decided—and very publicly announced—it will not back BritCard. Bizarrely, Mosley said he had “personal concerns about digital ID.”

He added that Palantir will “help democratically elected governments implement the policies they have been elected to deliver.” He noted, however, that digital ID was not in Labour’s election manifesto and that the decision to adopt digital should be taken at “the ballot box.” Therefore, he demurred, the BritCard project “isn’t one for” Palantir.

Of course, harvesting every possible scrap of data to enable “control” of the population wasn’t in the Labour Party’s manifesto either, but that hasn’t stopped Palantir from enthusiastically diving into that project. As for Mosley’s personal qualms about such things, if he holds them, he is definitely working for the wrong intelligence-linked “data-mining juggernaut.”

It was Pienaar who perhaps made the most interesting comment of all:

Among the other views, privately expressed by ministers, about the digital ID, a program, which at least one senior politician, who thought this wasn’t going to happen, it was just be too difficult. Do you think it’s gonna happen?

Pienaar is a member of the Establishment. He is privy to the the off-the-record discussions of ministers. His observation is worth thinking about.

Mosely replied:

One of my concerns about it is the technical feasibility of it or, maybe better expressed, the technical necessity of it. No doubt, we have all had the experience of engaging with parts of government where the online experience leaves something to be desired. It needs improvement.

However, we are in a world now where, I think, there are at least a dozen unique identifiers for each of us in government. We have passports, we have driving licenses, we have unique tax codes, we have national insurance numbers. Now, each of these sits in a silo and doesn’t talk to the other, isn’t harmonised. There’s no way for government to easily jump from one to another.

That could be achieved, in the back-end, with relatively little effort and I think that would go a long way to improving that citizen experience. I don’t see the need for an additional form of identification on top of the many that already exist.

Over the last decade or so, ably assisted by mega-corporations like Palantir, Deloitte, and Oracle, successive British governments have been putting the interoperable digital ID infrastructure together. Mosley casually refers to this as the “back-end.”

Our adoption of digital ID is absolutely essential to the state’s, and its private partners’, long-term plans. At some point, we have to be convinced to use it.

Let’s assume Pienaar is right: the government knows we will not accept e-ID. How, then, does it coerce us into adopting it?

It announces a Mickey Mouse, pretend digital ID and deliberately raises the specter of government overreach in our lives. It knows we will react viscerally and anticipates the backlash. In so doing, it focuses the public debate on the introduction of a single, government issued e-ID which it doesn’t need and has put no effort into developing. Waiting for us is the real digital ID system that government and its corporate partners, like Palantir, have actually been engineering.

Along comes the saviour, in this instance embodied by Palantir and Louis Mosley, pointing out to us that we don’t need BritCard. We just need to improve the “back-end” of the government’s system so that all our cards and licenses can “talk to the other” in harmony. And that is the essence of genuine digital ID.

It seems highly likely that we will reject BritCard. An ignominious defeat will be heaped on the government and talked about incessantly by the media as it extols how we Brits will never succumb to digital ID.

It’s just that we need to tweak the “back-end” a bit to improve our “citizen experience” as we interact with the online public-private state.

BritCard is a bait and switch psyop. Don’t fall for it.

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/13/2025 - 02:00

Interstellar Object Is Spraying Something Weird, Scientists Find

Zero Hedge -

Interstellar Object Is Spraying Something Weird, Scientists Find

Authored by Frank Landymore via Futurism.com,

A new analysis of our solar system’s interstellar interloper, 3I/ATLAS, reveals that it’s spewing huge amounts of water — and astronomers can’t immediately explain why.

Illustration by Tag Hartman-Simkins / Futurism. Source: Getty Images

The object, which is widely believed to be comet, showed strong ultraviolet emissions that are unmistakable telltales of hydroxyl gas (OH), a byproduct of water, when astronomers imaged it with NASA’s Neil Gehrels Swift space telescope before it disappeared behind the Sun. The emissions could only be spotted from space because the ultraviolet light would get absorbed in the atmosphere.

Their findings, detailed in a new study published in The Astrophysical Journal Letters, argue that the presence of all this OH indicates the comet is ejecting water vapor at a torrential rate of about 88 pounds per second — around the same rate as a fire hose running at full blast, according to a press release about the findings.

The most extraordinary thing is that this was spotted happening pretty far from the Sun, at a heliocentric distance of about three astronomical units (AU) away, or three times the distance between the Earth and our star. Typically, comets stray much closer to the Sun before the water ice in their core, called a nucleus, begins to sublimate, or instantly transform from a solid to a gas. Something else must be driving all the water dumping from 3I/ATLAS — which also implies, tantalizingly, that the comet must harbor considerable stores of water for this process to keep going.

When we detect water — or even its faint ultraviolet echo, OH, — from an interstellar comet, we’re reading a note from another planetary system,” coauthor Dennis Bodewits, a professor of physics at Auburn University, said in the release. “It tells us that the ingredients for life’s chemistry are not unique to our own.”

It’s another example of the fascinating strangeness of interstellar objects like 3I/ATLAS. Think of it as a sample of somewhere very far away, perhaps tens of millions of light years, careening straight past our doorstep. That it’s in many ways bizarre compared to local comets hints at just how unique these unimaginable alien realms must be, and how we have so much more to understand of how star systems form and how their structures may evolve.

Typically, a comet’s coma, a huge halo of gas and dust that give comets their glowing appearance, begin to form as the object nears the Sun — or another star, presumably — and heats up. The heat either sublimates or vaporizes the material in its nucleus, which is many times smaller than the tail that catches our eyes from the ground, stretching behind the comet.

3I/ATLAS’s coma has already surprised us in many ways. Its chemistry is strange compared to our own comets, and it appears to have an astonishingly high ratio of carbon dioxide to water.

What’s causing the outpouring of water vapor is still unclear. The astronomers speculate that sunlight might be heating up the ice grains released from the nucleus, which then get vaporized into the surrounding coma.

Astronomers believe that 3I/ATLAS came from the center of the Milky Way, where it was likely booted out of its original star system by a gravitational disturbance like the close flyby of another star, braving interstellar space before eventually cruising through our solar neighborhood. Based on these inferences, astronomers estimated that the comet must be billions of years old, perhaps three billion years older than the Sun itself. It’s not only a snapshot of a different part of the galaxy, but a different era of the cosmos altogether.

Right now, 3I/ATLAS is flying behind the Sun, so we can’t observe it from Earth. But scientists have been able to catch a glimpse of it using spacecraft stationed near Mars, and it’ll soon swing back into full view in late November.

“Every interstellar comet so far has been a surprise,” said lead author Zexi Xing, a postdoctoral researcher at Auburn University, said in a statement about the work referencing the two previously discovered interstellar objects. “‘Oumuamua was dry, Borisov was rich in carbon monoxide, and now ATLAS is giving up water at a distance where we didn’t expect it.”

“Each one,” Xing added, “is rewriting what we thought we knew about how planets and comets form around stars.”

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Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 23:25

'Darker The Better': Daily Cocoa Slows 'Inflammaging' By 70%

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'Darker The Better': Daily Cocoa Slows 'Inflammaging' By 70%

Authored by Rachel Ann T. Melegrito via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Your daily hot cocoa might do more than warm you up - it could also prevent heart disease and the inflammation that drives it, according to a recent study.

katrinsav/Shutterstock

As we get older, our bodies become more inflamed, increasing our risks of developing chronic disease and dying.

A large-scale study tracked people who took daily cocoa supplements for two years and found that body-wide inflammation stayed steady instead of rising - with the strongest effects in those who had higher inflammation at baseline.

In the COcoa Supplement and Multivitamin Outcomes Study (COSMOS) trial, daily cocoa extract supplements were linked to a 27 percent lower risk of death from cardiovascular disease.

Taking cocoa extract supplementation lowered C-reactive protein, a key marker of body-wide inflammation, by 70 percent after two years.

That drop corresponds to an estimated 7 percent to 23 percent lower risk of cardiovascular events, shifting participants from the “average-risk” range into the low-risk range for heart disease, while the placebo group remained in the average-risk category.

The Inflammation Connection

The study focused on C-reactive protein, or CRP, which typically rises about 5 percent annually with age and is widely used as a marker of body-wide inflammation. This process, dubbed “inflammaging” by researchers, fuels chronic diseases, frailty, disability, and premature death.

While the placebo group’s CRP levels rose by about 5 percent per year, the cocoa group’s dipped by about 3 percent—a change that wasn’t significant on its own. However, when the two groups were compared across two years, cocoa significantly prevented the usual age-related inflammaging, keeping inflammation steady. These results came from a standardized 500-milligram cocoa flavanol supplement (including 80 milligrams epicatechin).

The findings suggest that cocoa may help protect the heart by lowering inflammation, a key driver of cardiovascular disease, Howard Sesso, associate professor of medicine at Brigham and Women’s Hospital and lead author of the study, told The Epoch Times.

The cocoa group also showed a small but significant rise in IFN-γ. This messenger has potential antiviral effects, which may indicate protective effects, though its effect on health is still unclear and requires more study.

These results come from the COSMOS-Blood substudy, which followed nearly 600 generally healthy older adults (average age 70) with no history of cardiovascular disease or cancer through repeated blood tests over two years.

How Cocoa Fights Inflammation

Cocoa extract appears to blunt inflammaging by lowering CRP.

Cocoa is naturally rich in flavanols, which counter inflammation at the molecular level. They turn down a key switch that tells cells to make pro-inflammatory molecules like CRP. They also boost nitric oxide production, which relaxes blood vessels, lowers oxidative stress, and helps calm inflammation in the vessel walls.

In the heart, flavanols help lower blood pressure, keep blood flowing smoothly, and lower the risk of stroke and atherosclerosis by keeping blood vessels flexible and platelets less “sticky.”

A review of clinical trials found that cocoa or dark chocolate can boost nitric oxide levels and lower oxidative stress. The effects were strongest with higher flavanol doses, over 450 milligrams per day.

Make Cocoa Work for You

Not all cocoa products are created equal, Sesso said, noting that most cocoa products lose flavanols during processing and labels don’t list their content.

Melissa Mitri, a registered dietitian-nutritionist and owner of Melissa Mitri Nutrition, agreed, noting that the study used a specific, standardized dose of 500 milligrams of cocoa extract. “The amount of cocoa flavanols present in food forms, like dark chocolate, can vary significantly and may not always contain the amount shown to provide anti-inflammatory benefits in the research,” Mitri told The Epoch Times.

Cocoa powder may be a better option,” Sesso added. “But this does not mean we should all turn to supplements. Instead, it is important to focus on flavanol-rich foods that include cocoa, berries, tea, grapes, and other plant-based foods.”

Experts say natural is better. “The real benefits come from cocoa, so the darker the chocolate, the better. Aim for 70 percent cocoa or higher,” Kara Siedman, a nutritionist and director of partnerships with resbiotic Nutrition, told The Epoch Times.

Siedman noted that chocolate is calorie-dense and easy to overdo. She recommended just a square or two after dinner, savored slowly, or using unsweetened cocoa powder in smoothies, oatmeal, or yogurt to get flavanols without added sugar and fat.

The most effective approach combines cocoa with other proven strategies like regular exercise and healthy eating patterns, such as the Mediterranean diet and omega-3s. “What matters most is consistency—the foods and habits you follow most of the time.”

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Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 21:05

Luigi Mangione's Lawyers Ask Judge To Dismiss Federal Charges In Assassination Of UnitedHealthcare CEO

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Luigi Mangione's Lawyers Ask Judge To Dismiss Federal Charges In Assassination Of UnitedHealthcare CEO

Lawyers for accused assassin Luigi Mangione asked a Manhattan federal judge Saturday to throw out some of his criminal charges - including the lone charge that could put him on death row in the December assassination of UnitedHealthcare chief Brian Thompson outside a Midtown hotel, court papers say.

Luigi Mangione is escorted into Manhattan state court in New York, Tuesday, Sept. 16, 2025. Seth Wenig/AP Photo

The defense also wants Mangione’s statements to cops and his backpack with a gun and ammo kept out of trial, arguing he wasn’t read his rights and that officers searched the bag without a warrant after collaring him days later, according to the filing.

Mangione, 27, has pleaded not guilty to state and federal raps in the Dec. 4 killing, which stunned Wall Street and sent corporate security teams scrambling. Thompson was gunned down as he arrived for his company’s annual investor conference, a murder that triggered a multistate manhunt. The suspected shooter ditched the scene on a bicycle to Central Park, then hopped a taxi to a bus depot, investigators say. He was grabbed five days later after a McDonald’s tip in Altoona, Pa., roughly 233 miles from Manhattan, and has been held without bail since.

In a minute-by-minute takedown narrative, defense attorneys paint Mangione as cooperative when two "fully armed" officers approached him in the fast-food joint, saying a caller had flagged him as “suspicious.” He allegedly handed over a New Jersey driver’s license in someone else’s name before cops told him to stand up, hands on his head for a frisk. One officer then stepped outside to summon backup, telling a colleague he was “100 percent” sure they had their guy. Nearly a half-dozen more officers swarmed the restaurant within minutes, according to the filing—before, the defense says, any Miranda warning or warrant.

The high-stakes legal fight centers on a federal firearms murder statute, the only count that makes capital punishment possible in a state where New York law doesn’t apply the death penalty. The defense says prosecutors haven’t identified the requisite “crime of violence” to pair with the gun charge and argues the alleged predicate—stalking—isn’t one.

Last month, Mangione’s team also moved to strike the death penalty from the case after U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi publicly ordered prosecutors to seek it, calling the slaying a “premeditated, cold-blooded assassination that shocked America.” The defense says those comments taint the process.

The shocking hit ignited a firestorm against big insurers online. At the crime scene, investigators found ammo scrawled with “delay,” “deny,” and “depose,” a grim echo of phrases blasted by industry critics.

Next up: Treasury-sized legal trench warfare. Prosecutors will defend their charging decisions and the cops’ actions; the defense will press to gut the capital count and suppress key evidence. The judge’s rulings could decide whether this is a straight murder case—or a potential death-penalty showdown.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 20:30

Holdfast Alaska: The Family That Chose To Homestead In The Alaskan Wilderness

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Holdfast Alaska: The Family That Chose To Homestead In The Alaskan Wilderness

Authored by Ryan Cashman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

It had already been a long journey by the time Dennis and Amy Westerlind reached the Port of Bellingham, Washington, on a cold November night in 2020. They had spent several days driving 3,200 miles from their homestead in Maine. Now, with their young daughter Lena snuggled safely in the back seat, they loaded their car onto a ferry and prepared for departure. 

Dennis and Amy Westerlind on their Alaska homestead. Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska

A thick darkness enveloped the ferry as they sailed into the waters of the northern Pacific. Whipping winds and strong tides had churned the sea into an aggressive obstacle. A former lobsterman, Dennis was used to choppy waters. This was different. 

There were 36-foot seas on that crossing. It was a rough ride. And we were on that boat for about five days,” he said. 

Despite the harsh seas they now faced, the family continued to find strength in the shared dream that had motivated them for years. Back east, they had saved every penny to buy some overgrown acres in western Maine. Through grit and determination, they’d transformed that property into a thriving, off-grid homestead. Leaving it behind wasn’t easy. 

But their hearts longed to be elsewhere—somewhere they could truly test what they were made of. 

Days later, the ferry docked, and the Westerlind family drove onto the soil of a place they had never visited but always dreamed to be: Alaska

Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska A New England Primer

The dream of living off-grid in the Alaskan wilderness had taken hold during the couple’s early years of marriage. At that point, they lived in a small apartment in eastern Massachusetts. Dennis worked as a lobsterman for his father-in-law’s fishing company. Amy was the company secretary. 

This suburban lifestyle was familiar territory. Both had grown up in densely populated New England towns, and neither had a background in farming, gardening, off-grid living, animal husbandry, hunting, foraging, or homestead construction. 

Yet those hurdles only strengthened their determination. They found small ways to bring more self-sufficiency into their daily lives. Amy started a garden out on their small patio, where she grew tomatoes and other vegetables in pots. As often as they could, the couple traveled to Maine and explored the wilderness. It was during those trips that they began to take their off-grid dreams seriously. 

We were just getting sick of living down near the city [Boston]. So, we started spending all our free time looking for cheap, owner-financed land we could afford. We saved money everywhere we could. I stopped getting haircuts. We didn’t go out to eat. We just paid the rent and did a lot of home cooking,” Dennis said. 

Eventually, the couple amassed $5,000 in savings, which they used as a down payment on a promising property in western Maine. 

There was an old-timer who was looking to sell. We told him what we wanted to do, and he treated us really well. We just gave him the down payment, shook hands, and that was that,” said Dennis. 

“We couldn’t wait to get up there,” Amy added. 

Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska

Against the advice of their families, the Westerlinds moved to their new 30-acre, off-grid homestead in March 2011. There was no infrastructure, so they spent the spring and summer living in a tent, cooking over campfires, bathing with water from the freshwater spring, and building a small cabin. 

Over the next eight years, the couple completely transformed the overgrown mountainside. They dug a well, expanded the cabin, cleared acres of trees, established pasture, raised farm animals, cooked from scratch, grew herbs and vegetables, preserved their harvest, and, in 2019, welcomed their daughter, Lena, to the family. 

She was born at home in the cabin,” said Amy. 

“That whole homestead was a labor of love. Everything we did was by hand and out-of-pocket,” Dennis said. 

However, the family soon found that they wanted a little more space. They sold their property and paid cash for a farmhouse on 50 acres outside of Farmington, Maine. As they had before, they self-financed their home repairs, purchased a milk cow, and started a CSA market garden for income. But something else was still calling them. 

“We always wanted to come to Alaska. Since we were young, healthy, and able-bodied, we decided to just do it,” Dennis explained. They sold their farmhouse, bid Maine farewell, and headed west to meet the Washington ferry that would bring them to Alaska. 

Courtesy of Holdfast AlaskaCourtesy of Holdfast Alaska A Different World

Arriving in Alaska at the start of winter was a system shock for the Westerlinds. 

As Dennis described, “It was one of the hardest things to adapt to. The sun doesn’t really come up until 10:30 a.m., and then, by about 3 p.m., it’s night again.

“But, it was almost smarter to get here in the wintertime. We got the full blast right off the bat,” Amy added. 

They purchased a 2-acre homestead on the outskirts of Kenai National Wildlife Refuge. There, they spent the next few years learning the ropes of living in coastal Alaska. They fished for salmon and hunted for moose and elk on the banks of the Kenai River. However, they soon realized that the area was a watered-down version of what they truly wanted.

The Westerlinds learned a traditional method to preserve their Copper River salmon—no power needed, just sun, smoke, and wind. Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska

“It was a bit too crowded. Too much like Maine. We were looking for a more authentic, wild Alaskan experience,” Dennis said. 

In spring of 2024, the family moved again, this time deep into the eastern Alaskan interior. They paid cash for a small, off-grid log cabin on 7 acres near the northern entrance of Wrangell–St. Elias National Park. 

Owing to a lack of state resources and their remote location, the Westerlinds found themselves living in a subsistence zone, a legally drawn area where residents are allowed to subsist on what they can harvest from the land. 

Dennis elaborated: “To give an example, when we lived on the Kenai, for our family size, we were allowed to dipnet and keep 45 sockeye salmon for the year. Up here we’re allowed 500.”

Hunting restrictions are looser as well. The Westerlinds’ season starts much earlier in the spring than other areas of Alaska, and they are also allowed to bag higher quantities of moose, elk, deer, porcupine, and bear. 

That was a big factor for us to move to such a remote place, because our goal, our dream, is to live off the land. We can do that here. It’s a totally different world,” Dennis said. 

Off-Grid YouTubing

The move inland prompted another change in the Westerlinds’ life: the creation of a YouTube channel in September 2024. They had always utilized their land or learned skills to provide an income for themselves. Back in Maine, Amy had become an herbalist while Dennis farmed and did odd jobs. On the Kenai, they had herd-shared goats and worked in the area real estate market. Now, however, they were homesteading full-time. They decided to start vlogging. 

We bought a GoPro and just started taking videos of ourselves messing around on the homestead, and people took to it,” Dennis said. 

They named their YouTube channel Holdfast Alaska. Unlike many other homesteading content creators, the Westerlinds chose not to focus on gardening and livestock rearing. Instead, they wanted to show what it takes to live a subsistence lifestyle on a remote homestead: 17-hour supply runs to Anchorage; building an A-frame chicken coop with a living roof for insulation during the harsh winters; hunting moose and porcupine for dinner. 

However, more than just showing their lives in inland Alaska, the Westerlinds wanted to use their platform to add value to people’s lives. 

“I wanted to make the channel somewhere we could teach and help people learn to can, forage, or use herbal medicine,” Amy said. “We wanted to give value to people who want to live a similar life, or even people who don’t live this way. Providing inspiration is huge, because that’s what got us started.” 

A good portion of their video library consists of Amy utilizing the food they’ve grown, foraged, or hunted to make moose chili, salmon dip, sourdough donuts, lacto-fermented pickles, and so much more. 

Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska

In under a year, their channel gathered 52,000 subscribers, which neither expected. 

We definitely got more support from the general public than I thought we would when we made this channel,” said Dennis. 

While they don’t show Lena’s face on their channel for safety reasons, her small, excited voice can be heard echoing in the background of their videos. 

“We really enjoy raising her in a wild place like this,” Amy said. 

Dennis added, “It makes her capable, you know? She’s tough. She handles the cold better than we do.” 

Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska A Dream Come True

The Westerlinds have no illusions; they know their lifestyle isn’t for everyone. In fact, despite dreaming of homesteading in Alaska for ages, they can hardly believe they’ve actually achieved it. 

When we lived in Massachusetts, if you had told us that we were going to end up living here, we’d have said, ‘No way!’” Dennis said. “But, you know, you get to Alaska and you start to understand how to exist among all this wilderness.” 

The family has its fair share of struggles. There is the underlying danger of charging moose, hungry bears getting into the chicken coop, or summer forest fires destroying acreage. There’s also the constant learning and adaptation that comes with remote living. However, the Westerlinds are ready to meet their challenges head on. 

Courtesy of Holdfast Alaska

“We’re very hardworking. We have a lot of grit. And with the homestead, Dennis and I feel very rewarded that the hard work we put in directly relates to how we live day-to-day,” Amy said. 

“If we had listened to everybody who told us right from the start not to move to Maine, don’t buy land, don’t move to Alaska, we wouldn’t have done anything,” Dennis said. “We didn’t listen to them. We just worked hard. If you have something you want to do, you have to do more than others are doing in order to achieve it.” 

For this family, a dream is worth nothing unless you have the determination to achieve it. 

This article was originally published in American Essence magazine.

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 19:55

Charlie Kirk Assassination Suspect Wants To Wear Plain Clothes In Court To Gain Sympathy Among Potential Jurors

Zero Hedge -

Charlie Kirk Assassination Suspect Wants To Wear Plain Clothes In Court To Gain Sympathy Among Potential Jurors

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Defense attorneys representing the man accused of assassinating conservative commentator Charlie Kirk last month filed a court motion on Thursday asking a judge to allow him to attend in-person court hearings wearing plain clothes and without shackles.

A police mugshot shows Tyler Robinson, the suspect in the fatal shooting of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk during an event at Utah Valley University, in Orem, Utah, in this photo released by the Utah Department of Public Safety, on Sept. 12, 2025. Utah Department of Public Safety/Handout via Reuters

During his first court appearance, Robinson was seen wearing jail clothing and what appeared to be an anti-suicide smock. He made his first court appearance virtually.

In the motion submitted to Judge Tony Graf, his attorneys argued that the change in clothes is needed to ensure that potential jurors are not impacted by seeing Robinson in jail garb and with shackles. They cited interest in the case, including 18,000 search results for his first court appearance.

“With each development in the case generating thousands of articles and comments online, the likelihood of potential jurors seeing and drawing conclusions regarding Mr. Robinson’s guilt and or deserved punishment from obvious signs of pretrial incarceration will only increase,” said his attorneys, led by public defender Kathryn Nester.

They added that “given the pervasive media coverage in this case, the repeated and ubiquitous display of Mr. Robinson in jail garb, shackles, and a suicide vest will undoubtedly be viewed by prospective jurors and will inevitably lead to prospective juror perception that he is guilty and deserving of death.”

The defense’s motion cited the murder case against Bryan Kohberger in Idaho, noting that his attorneys successfully persuaded a judge to allow him to wear a suit and appear without cuffs in the courthouse. Kohberger pleaded guilty to four murders in July as part of a deal to avoid the death penalty and was sentenced to four consecutive life sentences without the possibility of parole.

In the modern age of ubiquitous internet access and unrelenting media attention to high-profile criminal cases,” Robinson’s attorneys also wrote, “the prejudicial effect of a criminal defendant appearing in shackles, jail attire, and bullet-proof or suicide vests at any hearing threatens fundamental fairness.”

They also said that Robinson does not have a criminal record and has been well-behaved in custody.

He was charged several days after Kirk’s assassination on Sept. 10 with the capital aggravated murder charge, which carries the possibility of the death penalty, as well as felony discharge of a firearm causing serious bodily harm, and obstruction of justice. A judge ordered that he be held without bail.

Authorities, including Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, have said they believe that Robinson acted alone. Family members said Robinson “had become more political in recent years,” Cox said, describing a recent family dinner during which he expressed displeasure with Kirk’s views, while prosecutors have said his family stated that he expressed left-wing political views.

They also said he was in a romantic relationship with his roommate, a man who identified as a transgender woman. Bullets that were recovered in the case allegedly contained anti-fascist and video game-related messages, said prosecutors and Cox.

Prosecutors said Robinson took responsibility for Kirk’s assassination after his family members confronted him about it. He also allegedly left behind a message to the roommate suggesting that he took responsibility.

Kirk, a conservative influencer who was close to President Donald Trump, was shot and killed while hosting a debate at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. In response, Trump administration officials and the president have been criticizing calls for violence motivated by political disagreements and suggested that Kirk’s death was, in part, motivated by such rhetoric.

Robinson is next scheduled to appear in court on Oct. 30.

*  *  * Got a Multitool yet? We appreciate your support. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 17:35

Charlie Kirk Assassination Suspect Wants To Wear Plain Clothes In Court To Gain Sympathy Among Potential Jurors

Zero Hedge -

Charlie Kirk Assassination Suspect Wants To Wear Plain Clothes In Court To Gain Sympathy Among Potential Jurors

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Defense attorneys representing the man accused of assassinating conservative commentator Charlie Kirk last month filed a court motion on Thursday asking a judge to allow him to attend in-person court hearings wearing plain clothes and without shackles.

A police mugshot shows Tyler Robinson, the suspect in the fatal shooting of conservative commentator Charlie Kirk during an event at Utah Valley University, in Orem, Utah, in this photo released by the Utah Department of Public Safety, on Sept. 12, 2025. Utah Department of Public Safety/Handout via Reuters

During his first court appearance, Robinson was seen wearing jail clothing and what appeared to be an anti-suicide smock. He made his first court appearance virtually.

In the motion submitted to Judge Tony Graf, his attorneys argued that the change in clothes is needed to ensure that potential jurors are not impacted by seeing Robinson in jail garb and with shackles. They cited interest in the case, including 18,000 search results for his first court appearance.

“With each development in the case generating thousands of articles and comments online, the likelihood of potential jurors seeing and drawing conclusions regarding Mr. Robinson’s guilt and or deserved punishment from obvious signs of pretrial incarceration will only increase,” said his attorneys, led by public defender Kathryn Nester.

They added that “given the pervasive media coverage in this case, the repeated and ubiquitous display of Mr. Robinson in jail garb, shackles, and a suicide vest will undoubtedly be viewed by prospective jurors and will inevitably lead to prospective juror perception that he is guilty and deserving of death.”

The defense’s motion cited the murder case against Bryan Kohberger in Idaho, noting that his attorneys successfully persuaded a judge to allow him to wear a suit and appear without cuffs in the courthouse. Kohberger pleaded guilty to four murders in July as part of a deal to avoid the death penalty and was sentenced to four consecutive life sentences without the possibility of parole.

In the modern age of ubiquitous internet access and unrelenting media attention to high-profile criminal cases,” Robinson’s attorneys also wrote, “the prejudicial effect of a criminal defendant appearing in shackles, jail attire, and bullet-proof or suicide vests at any hearing threatens fundamental fairness.”

They also said that Robinson does not have a criminal record and has been well-behaved in custody.

He was charged several days after Kirk’s assassination on Sept. 10 with the capital aggravated murder charge, which carries the possibility of the death penalty, as well as felony discharge of a firearm causing serious bodily harm, and obstruction of justice. A judge ordered that he be held without bail.

Authorities, including Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, have said they believe that Robinson acted alone. Family members said Robinson “had become more political in recent years,” Cox said, describing a recent family dinner during which he expressed displeasure with Kirk’s views, while prosecutors have said his family stated that he expressed left-wing political views.

They also said he was in a romantic relationship with his roommate, a man who identified as a transgender woman. Bullets that were recovered in the case allegedly contained anti-fascist and video game-related messages, said prosecutors and Cox.

Prosecutors said Robinson took responsibility for Kirk’s assassination after his family members confronted him about it. He also allegedly left behind a message to the roommate suggesting that he took responsibility.

Kirk, a conservative influencer who was close to President Donald Trump, was shot and killed while hosting a debate at Utah Valley University in Orem, Utah. In response, Trump administration officials and the president have been criticizing calls for violence motivated by political disagreements and suggested that Kirk’s death was, in part, motivated by such rhetoric.

Robinson is next scheduled to appear in court on Oct. 30.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 17:35

How Did Energy-Rich Pennsylvania Screw Up So Badly?

Zero Hedge -

How Did Energy-Rich Pennsylvania Screw Up So Badly?

Authored by Athan Koutsiouroumbas via RealClearPennsylvania,

Pennsylvania was supposed to be the energy state that got it right.

Thanks to the Marcellus Shale formation, natural gas made Pennsylvania a net exporter of electricity. Fracking enabled Pennsylvania to power homes and industry not just here, but across the entire Mid-Atlantic. The state’s natural gas built modern power plants, attracted investment, and helped America move toward energy independence.

So how is it that Pennsylvanians are still paying more for electricity every year?

Over the past five years, electricity prices in Pennsylvania have risen 45%. It is a tick lower than the national average of a 46% price increase. However, that is hardly comforting when neighbors across the border, in states that import electricity from Pennsylvania, have seen smaller increases.

Let that sink in.

Four of the six states surrounding Pennsylvania buy electricity from us. Yet, somehow, their electric prices have risen less than ours. For a state that exports power, it is puzzling and unacceptable.

It gets worse. 

The state of Virginia relies on importing electricity from Pennsylvania. It is also home to more data centers than any other state. Yet, Virginia only saw its electricity rates increase at half as much as Pennsylvania’s despite being home to the energy-hungry industry. 

Pennsylvania sits at the center of the massive regional grid that keeps the lights on in thirteen states and Washington, D.C. The Keystone State produces more power than it uses. Incredulously, Pennsylvanians are stuck watching their electric bills rise. It is like owning a bakery and still paying more for bread.

The irony is that Pennsylvania has every advantage: abundant natural gas, modern generating capacity, and a location that makes it a key hub in the national energy market. What is missing is the advantage that should matter most: affordability.

Prices are not rising because Pennsylvania has run out of energy. Quite the contrary. Pennsylvania has decades, potentially centuries, worth of natural gas. It does not cost more to generate electricity. When adjusted for inflation, the cost to make an electron has declined 11% while the cost to send electrons to customers has increased 14%. That’s a wallet-busting 25 point spread.  

Prices are rising because regulation, transmission costs, and capacity auctions for potentially inflated demand are stacking fees on top of fuel. Somewhere between the wellhead and the wall outlet, efficiency has turned into bureaucracy.

Voters are noticing: 86% of likely voters are concerned about their electric bill. For example, a nearly a majority of digital ads are focused on defining who is to blame for New Jersey’s escalating electric prices in a heated, competitive race for governor. Just as many likely run on television.

Pennsylvania’s leaders would be wise to pay attention. Gov. Josh Shapiro, the entire state House, and half of the state Senate are up for re-election in 2026. Energy is already shaping up to be the pocketbook issue that connects inflation, regulation, and frustration all at once.

No talking point can fix the reality that families know they live in a state that exports power yet still see prices rising faster than their paychecks.

Steps are being taken to address the key issues. 

bill was introduced this week to stop the double, and even triple, counting of the same pending data center projects which may be artificially inflating electricity prices. 

Projects ready to deliver electricity into the grid have languished in the operator’s bureaucracy for reasons unknown. Policymakers have applied pressure to compel the grid operator to approve proposed projects more quickly without sacrificing safety. 

Both parties agree that siting reform is necessary to bring more electric generation projects online. Gov. Shapiro’s proposal to create a new authority usurping local decision-making has met considerable pushback. Meanwhile, state Senate Republicans have advocated for a proposal that addresses NIMBY issues while expediting large-scale electric generation projects. 

Electricity is not just an economic metric.  It’s indicative of competence. 

People expect government to deliver basic things: safe roads, good schools, and affordable power. When those expectations are not met, trust continues to erode.

If our neighbors can buy our electricity more cheaply than Pennsylvanians can, something is wrong in Harrisburg. The fix is not complicated. Pennsylvania does not need more bureaucracy, more fees, or more rhetoric about “transition.”

If we can power half the East Coast, surely we can power Pennsylvania affordably.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 15:15

Biden Gets Radiation, Hormone Treatment For Prostate Cancer

Zero Hedge -

Biden Gets Radiation, Hormone Treatment For Prostate Cancer

Former President Joe Biden has begun receiving a combination of radiation and hormone treatments for the 'aggressive' stage-4 prostate cancer that the best medical care on the planet apparently didn't detect until six months after the 2024 election. 

The Biden family announced in May that the 82-year-old's cancer had a Gleason score of 9 with metastasis to the bone - but said that his condition was hormone-sensitive and could be effectively managed. 

"As part of a treatment plan for prostate cancer, President Biden is currently undergoing radiation therapy and hormone treatment," aide Kelly Scully said Saturday. 

In September, Biden's office announced that he had also undergone surgery to cut away cancerous skin cells - while two years ago he had a basal cell carcinoma (skin cancer) removed from his chest while he was still in office. 

As the Epoch Times notes further, cancer has impacted other members of the Biden family over the years.

Former First Lady Jill Biden had a basal cell carcinoma surgically removed from above her right eye, and a second basal cell carcinoma removed from the left side of her chest in early 2023.

The president’s son, Beau Biden, died in 2015 from brain cancer. The elder Biden has routinely linked his son’s brain tumor to exposure to toxic burn pits during military deployments over the years.

“Cancer touches us all. Like so many of you, Jill and I have learned that we are strongest in the broken places. Thank you for lifting us up with love and support,” the former president wrote in a May 19 X post following the announcement of his prostate cancer diagnosis.

Biden launched a bid for reelection in 2024 on the Democratic Party ticket, but suspended his campaign on July 21, 2024, and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him. President Donald Trump went on to beat Harris and retake the White House.

Jacob Burg and The Associated Press contributed to this report

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 14:40

Homan Says DOJ Probing Funding Behind 'Organized' Attacks On ICE

Zero Hedge -

Homan Says DOJ Probing Funding Behind 'Organized' Attacks On ICE

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Trump administration’s border czar, Tom Homan, said that the Justice Department has launched an investigation into the sources of funding for what he called “organized” attacks on federal immigration enforcement agents, amid escalating clashes in major so-called sanctuary jurisdictions.

White House border czar Tom Homan speaks with the media at the White House on June 30, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

In an interview on The Alex Marlow Show, Homan said the recent violence directed at ICE personnel and facilities in Portland, Los Angeles, and the Chicago suburb of Broadview goes beyond spontaneous protest and reflects coordinated logistics, including standardized gear and weaponry among demonstrators.

“Death threats, attacks up over 1,000 percent,” Homan said, attributing the escalation to “hateful rhetoric” by some media figures and politicians who compare ICE to Nazis or the Gestapo.

You’ve got 300 people show up with the same masks, same shields, the same weapons … Are they all going to the same mini mart and buying the same stuff? No, that’s being supplied to them. They’re being paid to do this,” Homan said.

Homan said DOJ officials “are all over this” and are working to identify those who may be financing organized riots targeting federal officers.

Asked whether prosecutors are weighing the use of the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) statutes, Homan declined to comment, citing internal deliberations.

“They will find out who is funding this, and they will be held accountable,” he said, adding that the riots are “absolutely organized.”

The unrest is a response to heightened immigration enforcement actions under President Donald Trump, who has promised to stem illegal immigration and authorized federal surges into jurisdictions with sanctuary policies.

The administration has emphasized arrests of the “worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens.” Recent ICE operations in Portland, for example, netted individuals convicted of fentanyl distribution, sexual abuse, and luring a minor.

We’re out there enforcing the laws,” Homan said on The Alex Marlow Show.

There’s no free pass here. If you’re here illegally, if you cross the border illegally, it’s a crime and we’re looking for you.

Homan added that national enforcement initiatives are meant to send a “strong message,” deter unlawful crossings, and reinforce that every illegal immigrant remains subject to removal.

State and local leaders, however, have accused the administration of staging confrontations for political effect.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, whose state is seeking to block the federalization of National Guard units ordered to assist ICE, said the deployment of heavily equipped agents into urban areas is meant “to provoke something” rather than protect public safety.

They’re wearing fatigues, they’re carrying long guns … downtown Chicago, Michigan Avenue. What is the purpose of that? It’s all a show,” Pritzker said at an Oct. 9 press conference.

Pritzker said most protests in Illinois have been peaceful and accused federal agents of targeting minorities in immigrant neighborhoods.

“To just grab random people because of the way they look and demand that they prove their citizenship is just wrong. So we’re gonna push back at every turn,” he said.

Legal challenges are mounting across several states. In Oregon, Gov. Tina Kotek moved to recall National Guard personnel after a federal judge ruled that Trump’s activation order violated the 10th Amendment. Portland Mayor Keith Wilson echoed concerns over “troubling and likely unconstitutional” tactics by federal personnel stationed outside ICE facilities.

In response to local leaders’ opposition, Department of Homeland Security (DHS) officials noted that their operations have resulted in a drop in apprehensions at the southwest border to the lowest level since 1970.

We have had the most secure border in American history,” DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said, crediting enhanced enforcement powers and interagency coordination.

“Under President Trump, we have empowered and supported our law enforcement to do their job, and they have delivered.”

Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 14:05

They're Baaack

Zero Hedge -

They're Baaack

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

They’re Baaack…

While not as catchy or creepy as “They’re Heeere” (remember when TVs were tubes and had “snow”?), Poltergeist II tried to expand on the franchise. Unfortunately for markets, tariffs with China are back.

It is always dangerous to argue that “this time is different” but I think it is very different.

This Time is Different (not in a good way)

Leading up to Liberation Day, there were tariffs implemented against certain products, certain countries, etc. Then we had the Liberation Day tariffs and markets ensued a deep sell-off until the tariffs imposed via executive order were dramatically reduced.

Since Liberation Day we’ve had some trade deals (in principle) and have been in a “steady” state of tariffs somewhere between 10% and 20% on most things. We have argued (and continue to argue) that the tariff impacts are only starting to be felt in the economy and will weave their way into markets in the coming quarters as their costs are finally felt.

Tariffs have “only” been about $200 billion more than usual so far, a big number for you and me, but still a small number relative to the U.S. economy.

But that all potentially changed this week.

The “steady” state is no longer so “steady.”

We specifically say “this week” as opposed to Friday, as the potential issue emerged earlier in the week – reports that China would restrict shipments of not just processed rare earths/critical minerals, but also some products that incorporate them.

The President responded on Friday by imposing 100% tariffs (starting November 1st) and restricting sales of critical software (I have to admit there is some confusion around that). Chips are likely to face restrictions as well.
Notice the timeline and how different it is than prior escalations in the trade war.

This was NOT a relatively unilateral act by the admin. China provoked this.

We will explore why China may have done this (it is a natural extension, to a large degree, of our previous work, and quite possibly a dangerous extension), but markets “bucketing” this tariff with others may be missing the critical point – how we came to adding this 100% tariff is very different than how we got to other tariff escalations.

If You are Planning on Eating a TACO, You May Go Hungry

It is easy to understand why the “buy the dippers” all chattered about TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). We think that is the wrong analysis.

  • TACO was never quite right, because the admin “pivoted” out of policies that weren’t working as well as they expected or were more unpopular than they envisioned. Not quite the same as “chickening” out, but a crucial difference, if we are right about this time being different.

  • The President largely initiated the escalations and it was very easy to argue that they were “negotiating” ploys for “maximum leverage.” I still think we could have achieved the state we have been in without the “Art of the Deal” and would be better off, but today is not the time or place to rehash that argument on the American Brand. That timeline played out on virtually every element of tariffs, until now. This does not, at least to me, seem like an escalation by the admin, but far more like a response to a legitimate threat from China.

More on our “response function” in a bit, but “spoiler” alert – it will be heavy on ProSec™.

What is China Up To?

Since China initiated this round of escalation, let’s think about what China may or may not be thinking. Yes, we get to play the “red team” as an exercise here.

  • It is possible that China didn’t think this through. That they were taking steps that they viewed as mere formalities that we misinterpreted. Or it is conceivable that China might be trying to play the “maximum leverage” game and this was just their first foray into “instigation” in the recent tariff wars. Those are all possibilities. It is also possible that the NY Jets call me up to kick for them this weekend (I went with the Jets because it would be impossible to believe any team other than the Jets would do it). But it isn’t very likely.

The reality is that this is far more likely to be a calculated step by China. That there is intent in this escalation.

  • China controls the processing/refining of rare earths and critical minerals. The West ceded the entire industry to China as it was energy intensive and very “dirty” at least in the “green” world point of view. So, while rare earths and critical minerals are abundant (there are markets that you can buy them on), they are “just” commodities. The processing and refining is more difficult and this is a huge advantage for China (it has driven the “extensions” that the admin has put in place with China on tariffs).

  • China likely sees the intensity with which the U.S. is starting to address the problem. We have been all over ProSec™ as an investment strategy as this admin takes Production for Security very seriously. We have seen several investments made into the space to help jumpstart domestic capacity. We fully expect that to continue and grow over time if the admin is able to create some form of Sovereign Wealth Fund as opposed to the more ad hoc deals that have been done so far. The admin is also finally doing things on the deregulation side (again, we would have started with production for security and deregulation rather than a global tariff war, but that is water under the bridge now). Does China see a future where the U.S. isn’t dependent on their processed rare earths and critical minerals? If the answer is “yes” then they “know” their biggest bargaining chip will get smaller over time. That is a reason to escalate now for true (not hyperbole) maximum leverage.

  • The risk with semiconductors (and software). To the extent there has been a “balancing” act in the trade negotiations with China, it has been U.S. dominance in this area. The consensus seems to be that China wants our chips so badly that they will do what it takes to maximize their access. But we have “felt” that this was not the correct take, and think China’s recent moves support our view that China is comfortable (or even wants) to cut themselves off from U.S. chips. They want to continue to develop their chip industry. They believe they can be successful (just look at the success of Huawei and BYD to understand why China might be confident in their own ability). We’ve seen some announcements from Chinese companies about some progress that has been made (and assume there is progress here and there that is not public).

    • By refusing to buy our chips (or not being allowed to buy our chips, if you prefer) they deny revenue to our companies which would be nice to have (not necessary, but nice).

    • To the extent that necessity is the mother of invention (and I believe there is a lot of truth to that), they set up the “necessity” for their companies to be successful. So, it might work (just like it should work for us on ProSec™ which is the flipside of this whole battle).

    • China is spending a lot on AI and has more engineers than we do (not necessarily as good, or as creative, but there is a strength in numbers), so we shouldn’t assume that China has concluded that the U.S. will continue to dominate the space.

So, China’s bargaining chip is declining in value and they think they can actually benefit from restricted access to chips.
That would support an argument that China has analyzed the situation and is prepared for a full-on trade war.

This also fits well (from China’s perspective) with the steps they have been taking to transition from Made In China to Made By China (where they don’t want to make goods for us to sell, they want to make their own brands to sell).

There were signs of this already. China has handled Trump 2.0 very differently on trade. During 1.0, every time we said tariff, they said, negotiate. Now they just accepted some, or quietly matched the President’s tariffs. China had 4 years to prepare for this and 4 years to better understand how the President negotiates.

My working assumption is this is a very calculated escalation by China and they are prepared to dig in.

Seriously, we are being asked to believe that we wouldn’t retaliate aggressively? I find it hard to believe that anyone who has watched the admin really thinks we won’t respond aggressively to something that has to be perceived as an assault on our economy.

From a Post-War World to a Pre-War World

General (ret.) Spider Marks discussed this concept recently. He also went through the thought process in more detail during some meetings in Milwaukee this week.

Basically, the argument is that the post-war world we lived in since the end of World War II (with a big bump from the fall of the Soviet Union) is changing. That the mentality of a post-war world (basking in the glow of peace) may have to shift to the mentality of a pre-war world.

In the pre-war world, all of our decisions (and investments) have to be looked at through the lens of how it helps us prepare for war (or create the deterrence necessary to avoid war).

  • ProSec™ will not just be a shortform word that we at Academy use, but a national movement.
  • The natural response from almost any administration, but almost certainly from this administration, will be to double or triple down on their efforts to make things we need for security. We continue to argue that every country should think, to some degree, about behaving like this.

The element that could be most interesting is that in a pre-war world, people are more willing to make sacrifices for the greater good.

Some could argue that we have lived a “pampered” life where the battles, except for the horrific events of 9/11, happened elsewhere. That Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was an aberration, rather than a shifting norm.

That mindset could be changing.

Germany, for example, ahead of the first winter after the Ukraine war, put serious restrictions on anything from heating to lawn mowing to preserve precious energy supplies. The Germans abided by those rules and made it through that winter better than they would have had they gone about “business as usual.”

We’ve argued before (and we will argue again) that we had the luxury to create a lot of regulations and we need to revisit those regulations to see if they still make sense.

How many people would agree to fight a battle with one hand tied behind their back (even an economic battle)? Yet that is to some extent what we have been doing.

Bottom Line

This week may turn out to be more pivotal to markets and the economy than people currently think. This may be the week that really turns the tide in how we think about our economy and our need to manufacture, process, and refine things.

If I’m wrong, then back to business as usual.

If I’m right:

  • Accelerate efforts to become self-sufficient on energy, electricity, components, chips, pharma/biotech, etc. Maybe not quite a “war-time” economy, but something more akin to that.

  • The President really started to frame this as China against “a more collective us.” He framed this as the U.S. response to China’s actions, but (basically) called on others to take action against China.

  • China is going to try to rapidly grow their businesses and shape their global relationships in direct opposition to the U.S.

  • China stocks should not be owned offshore at this point, as many of the actions around Chinese ADRs and their VIE structure could get called into question.

Maybe I’m overreacting, but I think China’s response is calculated and it is “game on” for us versus them in global trade and production.

I want to own anything and everything that benefits from ProSec™ while being cautious on some of the companies most exposed to China.

Maybe it will be TACO Tuesday, but I think it is far more likely to be Lithium Thursday (I’m pretty sure eating Lithium is not good for your health – but making and refining it is).

For the first time, I think we might be ready for a period where Main Street is more important than Wall Street (or whatever street it is where we extract and make things).

We didn’t touch on the Fed today or growing concerns about the private credit market, as we did not want to dilute today’s message, but we will address those topics early in the week too.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 12:55

IRS Releases 2026 Tax Adjustments, Changes Under 'Big, Beautiful Bill'

Zero Hedge -

IRS Releases 2026 Tax Adjustments, Changes Under 'Big, Beautiful Bill'

The IRS on Thursday released its annual inflation adjustments for various tax provisions, as well as guidance regarding changes made under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. 

The standard deduction will rise to $16,100 for single taxpayers and $32,200 for married couples filing jointly in the 2026 tax year. The 2025 standard tax deduction was also raised to $15,750 for single filers and $31,500 for couples filing jointly.

Marginal tax brackets were also adjusted for inflation - with the top tax rate remaining at 37% for single taxpayers making $640,600, and joint filers making over $768,000. Other tax brackets are as follows:

  • 35% for incomes over $256,225 for individuals and $512,450 for married filers;

  • 32% for incomes over $201,775 for individuals and $403,550 for married filers;

  • 24% for incomes over $105,700 for individuals and $211,400 for married filers;

  • 22% for incomes over $50,400 for individuals and $100,800 for married filers;

  • 12% for incomes over $12,400 for individuals and $24,800 for married filers;

  • 10% for incomes of $12,400 or less for individuals or $24,800 for married filers.

OBBBA changes include the estate tax exclusion, which will be set at $15 million for the estates of decedents who die in 2026 - an increase from the current $13.99 million that applies this year.

Adoption credits will increase from $17,820 in 2025 to $17,670 in 2026, while the amount that's refundable will be $5,120. 

The exemption for the Alternative Minimum Tax will be set to $90,100 for individuals - but will begin to phase out at $500,000, and $140,200 for joint filers which will phase out starting at $1million. 

OBBBA also increased the max amount of the employer-provided childcare tax credit from $150,000 to $500,000 (or $600,000 if the employer is an eligible small business), Fox News reports.

Meanwhile, the earned income tax credit will rise to a maximum amount of $8,231 for qualifying taxpayers with three or more children, an increase of $8,046 in 2025. 

More via Fox News

The limitation for voluntary employee salary reductions for contributions to health flexible spending arrangements will increase to $3,400 in tax year 2026, up $100 from last year. Cafeteria plans that allow unused amounts to carryover would have the maximum carryover at $680, up $20 from 2025.

Taxpayers who have self-only coverage in a medical savings account would have to have a deductible of at least $2,900 in tax year 2026, up $50 from this year, but not more than $4,400, which is an increase of $100 from this year. The maximum out-of-pocket expense amount for self-only coverage will increase $150 to $5,850 in 2026.

For family coverage with medical savings accounts, the annual deductible will be between $5,850 to $8,750, while the out-of-pocket expense limit will be $10,700 in tax year 2026.

The monthly limitation for the qualified transportation fringe benefit will rise $15 to $340 in tax year 2026.

The annual exclusion for gifts will be unchanged for tax year 2026 at $19,000.

Some tax provisions that in the past were indexed for inflation are no longer adjusted. Those include personal exemptions, itemized deductions, and the income measurement used to phase out the lifetime learning credit.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 12:20

Libertarian Realism: A Challenge To Empire

Zero Hedge -

Libertarian Realism: A Challenge To Empire

Authored by Joseph Solis-Mullen via The Libertarian Institute,

When the late Justin Raimondo, co-founder and longtime editorial director of Antiwar.com, wrote in 2011 that the anti-interventionist movement needed a “big picture” framework, he was attempting to distill decades of polemic into a theory of international relations. In his essay “Looking at the ‘Big Picture,’” he dubbed this framework “Libertarian Realism.” Though Raimondo never set down a book-length treatise, his insights remain an invitation for libertarians to articulate a systematic foreign policy rooted in their own intellectual traditions.

At its core, libertarian realism rests on two pillars: public choice theory and the non-aggression principle (NAP). Together, they provide both a positive account of how foreign policy is made, and a normative standard by which to judge it.

First, public choice theory rejects the notion that politicians act for some collective good. Instead, it insists that policymakers, like all other individuals, pursue their own interests—power, prestige, financial gain, or reelection. Raimondo applied this logic directly to international affairs. Foreign policy, he argued, is not the unfolding of some objective “national interest” but the function of domestic political incentives.

This point distinguishes libertarian realism from both the neoconservative, realist, liberal internationalist schools. Neoconservatives cloak their ambitions in rhetoric about Washington’s global hegemony and an empire of democracy; traditional realists invoke the “national interest” as a guiding principle; while liberal internationalists speak of upholding the “rules based international order.”

The late Justin Raimondo, co-founder and longtime editorial director of Antiwar.com.

Raimondo’s critique cuts deeper; global hegemony and world democracy are a chimera that have bankrupted and destroyed actual American democracy. There is no “national interest” because there is no national actor; only individuals act, and they act for themselves—thus, American foreign policy reflects not the welfare of 330 million citizens but the ambitions of a relatively small political elite and the networks of lobbyists, corporate beneficiaries, and ideological courtiers around them. With regard to a “rules based international order,” such rules have only ever served as a cudgel in Washington’s hands to be applied to foes and potential foes and never to itself or its allies.

Seen in this light, wars of choice—from the Spanish-American War to Iraq—were not aberrations but predictable results of a system where power perpetuates itself. Libertarian realism’s use of public choice theory explains why interventions recur regardless of party, and why “limited wars” tend to metastasize.

If public choice explains what is, the non-aggression principle (NAP) prescribes what ought to be. Raimondo insisted that foreign policy consistent with libertarian principles must avoid aggression, whether in the form of invasion, forward deployment, or even “preventive” alliances.

With a little imagination, one can see that the NAP as applied to Washington’s relations to other states can be fruitfully extended further by drawing an illustrative analogy: just as individuals cannot “consent” to contracts made under duress, small nations cannot truly be said to consent to treaties with vastly stronger states. While the most famous line of Thucydides’ Melian Dialogue is doubtlessly “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must,” the more instructive is the line preceding it: “…questions of ‘right’ can only exist between equals in power.” From this perspective, NATO expansion, U.S. bases in East Asia, or bilateral “security guarantees” are not consensual arrangements but coercive impositions that would occur regardless of the “decision” of the corresponding state—this includes when a clear free-rider benefit on the part of the “accepting” state exists, since this is tangential or a second order effect.

Libertarian realism thus rejects the idea that America must police the world to sustain “order.” To coerce another society into Washington’s version of “liberalism” is no less an act of aggression than forcing an individual into virtue.

Recognizing that defense is a legitimate function of government until private arrangements are possible, libertarian realism counsels a restrained military posture. The United States faces virtually no threat of invasion. Its geography, economy, and nuclear deterrent already guarantee security. A minimal arsenal of nuclear weapons, supported by naval assets sufficient to protect its shipping and shores, would deter aggression without underwriting the pretense to empire.

By contrast, the permanent standing army—garrisoning hundreds of bases across the globe—serves not defense but dominance. Advocates of libertarian realism should therefore favor abolishing the standing army and replacing it with voluntary, localized militias. In this sense, libertarian realism echoes the Founders’ suspicion of professional militaries and the old republican insight that war is the health of the state. As James Madison wrote in his 1795 Political Observations:

“War is the parent of armies; from these proceed debts and taxes; and armies, and debts, and taxes are the known instruments for bringing the many under the domination of the few.”

Part of Raimondo’s polemic was aimed at rival schools of international thought who appealed to destiny, class struggle, or divine mission to justify power. He observed that what united these traditions, whether Marxists, fascists, Trotskyites and their neoconservative spawn, or Wilsonian liberals, was disdain for methodological individualism. In their view, nations or classes acted as collective bodies; individuals were mere instruments.

Libertarian realism, by contrast, insists that only individuals act, and that history is the cumulative result of individual choices. Policymakers are not swept along by “iron laws” of destiny but by incentives and illusions. This methodological starting point leads to sharper analysis: rather than attributing U.S. wars to abstractions like “democracy promotion,” we can identify specific officials, their ideological commitments, and the domestic interests that benefit.

Raimondo also emphasized that theory is not idle. To understand why wars happen is to be able to predict their recurrence and, more importantly, to resist them. Given that elites benefit from crises—financial, political, or military—war is always in the offing. This insight remains prescient. As tensions with Iran, China, and Russia are stoked, the never-ending Global War on Terror is extended to Latin America in the name of fighting so-called “narco-terrorism,” and one sees the same dynamics Raimondo diagnosed a decade ago.

Libertarian realism equips activists, scholars, and ordinary citizens with a framework to expose the war party, or uniparty, the duopoly of Republicans and Democrats. By unmasking its motives and methods, anti-interventionists can debunk the narratives that lead populations to sacrifice blood and treasure for elite gain.

Raimondo’s “Libertarian Realism” remains an underdeveloped but powerful lens. By uniting public choice theory with the non-aggression principle, it explains both why wars occur and why they are illegitimate. Its prescriptions—minimal deterrence, abolition of the standing army, and strict non-interference—are both radical and rooted in America’s republican heritage.

As libertarians look to articulate a coherent foreign policy distinct from progressive humanitarianism and conservative nationalism alike, Raimondo’s call for a “big picture” remains timely. A systematic libertarian realism not only deepens our theoretical arsenal but offers a principled alternative to empire.

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Tyler Durden Sun, 10/12/2025 - 11:45

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