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Definancialisation Doesn't Mean Peace, It Means Prep For War

Zero Hedge -

Definancialisation Doesn't Mean Peace, It Means Prep For War

By Michael Every of Rabobank

For years, some analysts talked about the problems associated with ‘financialization’ and only a small subset talked about a looming backlash ‘definancialization’. What did you think it meant? Vibes? Papers? Essays? “Because markets”?

In the big picture, an FT op-ed notes that Trump’s new ‘Great Game’ is “mining, mapping, and mercantilism,” where “the contest for resources between the US and China will continue after the president is gone and affect us all.” All true, and flagged here for over a decade now – recall 2017’s ‘The Great Game of Global Trade’? Yet as think tanks and global media notice that Venezuela and Beyond: Trump’s ‘America First’ Rhetoric Masks a Neo-Imperialist Streak, which we warned of in November 2024, markets are still brushing it all off. Apparently, they think this is all just Marco Rubio memes.

NATO Secretary General Rutte is likewise portrayed by Politico as the dog-with-coffee-in-a-house-on-fire meme for saying ‘Chill out, this is fine’ re: Greenland and that the alliance is “not at all” in crisis. Actually, he’s right given NATO is NO without the US.

But if Greenland is not a crisis, Iran could be. We don’t know if the regime will survive; if the US or Israel will strike it; if it will strike Israel and US bases; if something could happen with the remnants of its nuclear programme; who comes next if the regime collapses; if the country will hold together if it does; and what that unleashes as Great Powers abhor a vacuum: Turkey – Israel tensions are already rising. And note this is all MUCH closer to Europe than the US.

What one can say is that Venezuela and Iran are precisely what was flagged in the 2026 Financial Markets Outlook titled ‘Who Has the Cards?’: disruption of upstream commodity supplies heading to China to mirror China’s hold on rare earths, mid-stream processing, and downstream industrial and consumer goods. Much more of this is yet to come as the Great Game goes on.

For Europe (and the UK and Australia/NZ and Canada), this backdrop is beyond ‘challenging’. Via Greenland, Trump is pointing out that ‘rules-based’ sovereignty doesn’t mean a thing if you can’t defend said territory – which they can’t; and the UK government is trying to give away the geostrategic Chagos Islands, prompting a rare House of Lords rebuke… will Trump do more if the actual Chagossians, who oppose this deal, offer to name an island after him?

If it wants to get serious about defense, Europe is said to need a 100,000 strong army. The EU defense spending boost penciled in by 2035 is not enough, and it’s against moving targets – Trump wants to boost his military budget by 50% in 2027, China is forging ahead, Russia is ‘all in’ Moreover, you can’t have 27 armies acting as one, so who runs it? Even assuming it gets there, in an age of maps, mining, and mercantilism, where is Europe going to be getting its raw materials from *cheaply*, as the US is aiming for in the Western Hemisphere, at least?

Australia and the UK don’t sit prettier despite political unity. Indeed, we just saw a warning that the Brits are so short of the ability to deliver on the military front that AUKUS is potentially at risk; that’s as the UK is looking to China to build the Falsane base tugboats it will need for the new nuclear submarines it might not be able to help deliver to Australia. Taken like this, it’s the status quo ante of financialisation and neoliberal free trade that is arguably running on vibes, papers, and essays rather than any kind of hard power.

Moreover, as Politico notes, “In Venezuela, Trump expands his anti-climate empire: The U.S. president’s fossil fuel-powered world vision is a bet on the energy transition failing.”

But let’s bring this down to markets:

The US just imposed a 25% tariff on all the countries who do business with Iran, mostly aimed at China and Russia; it just invited Qatar, the UAE, and India, to join its “Pax Silica’ to create a non-China tech supply chain; it is also to hold a G7 meeting about rare earth supply chains, as Japan latter begins underwater mining for them at a test site. The US is also reportedly close to a trade deal with Taiwan, which is more a geopolitical signal than an economic one.

On the other hand, the Hong Kong press underline that China will prioritise export controls and supply-chain security to shield its economy in 2026. It has also said it’s going to double down on its current model.

Europe is apparently close to signing an FTA with India, and may have reached an agreement with China over EV tariffs that will perhaps enable minimum prices to be set instead. Indeed, the different worlds the EU and US now inhabit are best summarized by Europe celebrating the conclusion of an FTA with Mercosur that took 45 years to achieve just as the Donroe Doctrine tore up 45 years of neoliberalism and effectively trumped that achievement on the ground in Latin America. (As hedge funds prowl for Donroe Doctrine bargains.)

Within the US itself, we have now seen President Trump attack multiple targets from the meat-packing industry, to health insurance companies, to defense firms; ban Wall Street from buying single family homes; force credit card companies to cap interest at 10%; take stakes in Intel, US steel, rare earths producers, and nuclear power; and now threaten to take stakes in oil companies (presumably to get them to invest in Venezuela). On top of that, the FTC has stated that it will block M&A deals that raise the cost of living for consumers – an anti-Borkian trend that the Biden White House also favored. Moreover, Trump just told AI firms they are not allowed to pass on their soaring costs of electricity to consumers, and must “pay their own way.”  

And so, to the Fed. As the Wall Street Journal warns ‘Trump’s Investigation of Powell Is Also a Warning to the Next Fed Chair’, three past Fed chairs decry the “unprecedented” assault, some media warn of the risks of a 1970’s-style inflation crisis, and even the Treasury Secretary reportedly says it’s created “a mess” (says Axios), the FT states: ‘The next Fed chair is… Donald Trump.’ Very few media are asking if it’s possible if Powell is actually guilty: is this presumption of innocence or a reflex reaction that central banks aren’t capable of sin?

Of course, as Reuters summarizes it today, ‘Trump crosses Fed Rubicon, market shrugs.’ And that is logical to the extent that we are clearly in a world where the US is going to ‘run things hot’ in some sectors. Effectively, it is what I have dubbed as using legacy US financial fartcraft to prepare for a near-future world of warcraft.

Yet at the same time gold is tipped by some to crack $5,000 ahead, as the latest exceptionally-small US trade deficit helping to see the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate hit 5.4%(!) was helped by bullion exports (showing the US is not accumulating it), and an Italian parliamentary panel approved the “people's” claim on its central bank's bullion with the ECB, which may crack other things people now tip. Silver is also up to a new record near $86, and copper is near a record high at $13,273. By contrast, oil is at $64, up significantly in the past week over Iran, even if the geostrategic play is clearly lower due to US action in Venezuela.

So, definancialisation doesn’t mean peace – it means prep for war. It doesn’t mean free trade – it means trade blocs. It doesn’t mean free markets – it means freeing markets from a focus on short-term profits. It doesn’t mean higher rates and lower fiscal spending – it means lower rates and higher fiscal spending for different things: consumers, and ‘maps, mining, and mercantilism.’ It doesn’t mean legacy correlations – it means new ones.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 12:25

Bessent Reveals 10% Of US Budget Lost To Fraud, Signaling Musk Has Unfinished DOGE Business

Zero Hedge -

Bessent Reveals 10% Of US Budget Lost To Fraud, Signaling Musk Has Unfinished DOGE Business

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's interview with journalist Christopher Rufo suggests that Elon Musk still has unfinished business at DOGE, as fraud, waste, and abuse from Somali networks in Minnesota, California Democrats, and other deep-blue states have dominated the news cycle for the last several weeks.

Bessent told Rufo that somewhere between 5% to 10% of the total federal budget is siphoned off by fraud and abuse each year, citing data from the Government Accountability Office.

"So it's about 10% of the federal budget, 1 to 2% of GDP. And if we can narrow that number, President Trump asked for a $500 billion increase in the defense budget to fortify, you know, 10 to 20 years of neglect, and forever wars that we've been involved in that he's determined not to get us into. We need to flex up our military budget, if we can get rid of this waste, fraud, and abuse, we can finance a safer, sounder US with with that with without taking on more debt. Sounds pretty good outcome to me," Bessent said.

Rufo asked Bessent about DOGE. Bessent responded, "Uh, yeah, and Chris, to be clear, I was in 100% alignment with Elon on the waste, fraud, and abuse. It was just, you know, the Silicon Valley motto is move fast and break things. I said my personal motto and the Treasury motto is move deliberately and fix things. And that's what you're going to see in our investigations. You're not going to see headlines tomorrow. You're not going to see them next week, but in a month or quarter, once we get people in the bear trap, they're not getting out because we will have conclusive evidence to present. And I think that they will have to, uh, make plea deals that they will be willing to negotiate to turn in higher-ups to help us map out how this happened. And again, we're going to take this Minnesota map to the other 49 states."

Bessent and Rufo also discussed ongoing investigations into dark-money-funded NGOs...

"And again, what we do is follow the money—just like we followed it with the mafia, just like we follow it. We'll find out who's done this. I announced today that we are going to put in effect a whistleblower program. And my sense is that the rats will turn on each other," Bessent said.

Elon Musk played a major role in DOGE in early 2025 before stepping away in that spring, but the recent steady flow of fraud, waste, and abuse news suggests his work there is far from finished.

The question is whether Musk returns to DOGE. He did pour cold water on the idea during Katie Miller's podcast, saying the chances of going back were zero. But with Americans outraged over Somali fraud, it is still possible Musk could feel compelled to finish the job he started.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 12:05

'Dilbert' Creator Scott Adams Dies After Prostate Cancer Battle

Zero Hedge -

'Dilbert' Creator Scott Adams Dies After Prostate Cancer Battle

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

“Dilbert” creator and political commentator Scott Adams died after a battle with prostate cancer, his ex-wife announced on Tuesday on his YouTube show. He was 68.

Scott Adams, creator of the comic strip “Dilbert,” talks about his work in his studio in in Dublin, Calif., on Oct. 26, 2006. AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez

His first ex-wife, Shelly Miles, revealed his death on “Real Coffee With Scott Adams” and said that Adams had a final message to his audience, including messages about his estate.

“If you are reading this, things did not go well for me,” Adams wrote on Jan. 1, 2026, according to Miles. “My body failed before my brain.”

Last year, Adams said that he was diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer, which he described as similar to the type of cancer that former President Joe Biden was diagnosed with, and indicated that he only had months to live.

Later, in November, he made a plea to the Trump administration to allow him to use a type of experimental treatment for his prostate cancer.

President Trump also offered condolences:

This is a breaking news update. More details will come.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 11:45

Clintons Refuse To Testify About Jeffrey Epstein; Comer To Begin Contempt Proceedings

Zero Hedge -

Clintons Refuse To Testify About Jeffrey Epstein; Comer To Begin Contempt Proceedings

President Trump isn't the only one clamming up over Jeffrey Epstein - as Bill and Hillary Clinton are both refusing to testify in front of Congressional investigators over their relationship with the dead sex-trafficking pedophile, escalating a monthslong battle with House Oversight Committee Chairman Rep. James Comer (R-KY). 

The Clintons were scheduled to testify this week - weeks after the Trump DOJ released volumes of 'Epstein Files' - which were highly redacted, yet featured Bill prominently.

The former US president was scheduled to testify today (Jan. 13), and Hillary scheduled for tomorrow. Hours before the deadline, however, the Clintons made it clear in an 8-page letter that they have no intention of showing up - calling subpoenas issued by Comer "invalid and legally unenforceable," adding that they'll fight Comer as long as it takes. 

"They are obligated under the law to appear and we expect them to do so," and Oversight spokeswoman said last week. "If the Clintons do not appear for their depositions, the House Oversight Committee will initiate contempt of Congress proceedings."

Which, they're now initiating for Bill (which Hillary to follow). 

Rep. James Comer (R-KY)

Contempt of Congress is a misdemeanor that can result in a fine of up to $100,000 and up to a year in jail if pursued by the DOJ (so, nothing will happen and the Clintons know it). 

Comer subpoenaed the Clintons seeking information regarding their personal interactions with Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, including documented flights on Epstein's private jet. 

The Clintons said in their letter that they anticipated Mr. Comer would argue that the decision about whether to testify was not theirs to make.

“But we have made it,” they wrote. “Now you have to make yours.”

The Clintons had worked to beef up their legal team before Mr. Comer’s deadline. They brought on Ashley Callen, co-chair of the congressional investigations practice at Jenner & Block, who had previously worked as general counsel for Speaker Mike Johnson and other top Republicans, to interface with G.O.P. members on the House Oversight Committee. Ms. Callen also previously worked as a deputy staff director on the House Oversight Committee under Mr. Comer.

They also sought assistance from Abbe Lowell, the veteran lawyer famous for representing clients in the middle of political scandals. -NYT

The refusal to testify comes after a December 2025 testimony was rescheduled due to a funeral. 

"Every person has to decide when they have seen or had enough and are ready to fight for this country, its principles and its people, no matter the consequences," the Clintons wrote in a lengthy letter to Comer obtained by the NY Times. "For us, now is that time."

They also accused Comer of potentially bringing Congress to a halt to pursue a politically driven process "literally designed to result in our imprisonment." 

"We are confident that any reasonable person in or out of Congress will see, based on everything we release, that what you are doing is trying to punish those who you see as your enemies and to protect those you think are your friends," they wrote, adding that they expected Comer to "release irrelevant, decades-old photos that you hope will embarrass us."

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 11:25

Clintons Refuse To Testify About Jeffrey Epstein; Comer To Begin Contempt Proceedings

Zero Hedge -

Clintons Refuse To Testify About Jeffrey Epstein; Comer To Begin Contempt Proceedings

President Trump isn't the only one clamming up over Jeffrey Epstein - as Bill and Hillary Clinton are both refusing to testify in front of Congressional investigators over their relationship with the dead sex-trafficking pedophile, escalating a monthslong battle with House Oversight Committee Chairman Rep. James Comer (R-KY). 

The Clintons were scheduled to testify this week - weeks after the Trump DOJ released volumes of 'Epstein Files' - which were highly redacted, yet featured Bill prominently.

The former US president was scheduled to testify today (Jan. 13), and Hillary scheduled for tomorrow. Hours before the deadline, however, the Clintons made it clear in an 8-page letter that they have no intention of showing up - calling subpoenas issued by Comer "invalid and legally unenforceable," adding that they'll fight Comer as long as it takes. 

"They are obligated under the law to appear and we expect them to do so," and Oversight spokeswoman said last week. "If the Clintons do not appear for their depositions, the House Oversight Committee will initiate contempt of Congress proceedings."

Which, they're now initiating for Bill (which Hillary to follow). 

Rep. James Comer (R-KY)

Contempt of Congress is a misdemeanor that can result in a fine of up to $100,000 and up to a year in jail if pursued by the DOJ (so, nothing will happen and the Clintons know it). 

Comer subpoenaed the Clintons seeking information regarding their personal interactions with Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, including documented flights on Epstein's private jet. 

The Clintons said in their letter that they anticipated Mr. Comer would argue that the decision about whether to testify was not theirs to make.

“But we have made it,” they wrote. “Now you have to make yours.”

The Clintons had worked to beef up their legal team before Mr. Comer’s deadline. They brought on Ashley Callen, co-chair of the congressional investigations practice at Jenner & Block, who had previously worked as general counsel for Speaker Mike Johnson and other top Republicans, to interface with G.O.P. members on the House Oversight Committee. Ms. Callen also previously worked as a deputy staff director on the House Oversight Committee under Mr. Comer.

They also sought assistance from Abbe Lowell, the veteran lawyer famous for representing clients in the middle of political scandals. -NYT

The refusal to testify comes after a December 2025 testimony was rescheduled due to a funeral. 

"Every person has to decide when they have seen or had enough and are ready to fight for this country, its principles and its people, no matter the consequences," the Clintons wrote in a lengthy letter to Comer obtained by the NY Times. "For us, now is that time."

They also accused Comer of potentially bringing Congress to a halt to pursue a politically driven process "literally designed to result in our imprisonment." 

"We are confident that any reasonable person in or out of Congress will see, based on everything we release, that what you are doing is trying to punish those who you see as your enemies and to protect those you think are your friends," they wrote, adding that they expected Comer to "release irrelevant, decades-old photos that you hope will embarrass us."

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 11:25

Clintons Refuse To Testify About Jeffrey Epstein; Comer To Begin Contempt Proceedings

Zero Hedge -

Clintons Refuse To Testify About Jeffrey Epstein; Comer To Begin Contempt Proceedings

President Trump isn't the only one clamming up over Jeffrey Epstein - as Bill and Hillary Clinton are both refusing to testify in front of Congressional investigators over their relationship with the dead sex-trafficking pedophile, escalating a monthslong battle with House Oversight Committee Chairman Rep. James Comer (R-KY). 

The Clintons were scheduled to testify this week - weeks after the Trump DOJ released volumes of 'Epstein Files' - which were highly redacted, yet featured Bill prominently.

The former US president was scheduled to testify today (Jan. 13), and Hillary scheduled for tomorrow. Hours before the deadline, however, the Clintons made it clear in an 8-page letter that they have no intention of showing up - calling subpoenas issued by Comer "invalid and legally unenforceable," adding that they'll fight Comer as long as it takes. 

"They are obligated under the law to appear and we expect them to do so," and Oversight spokeswoman said last week. "If the Clintons do not appear for their depositions, the House Oversight Committee will initiate contempt of Congress proceedings."

Which, they're now initiating for Bill (which Hillary to follow). 

Rep. James Comer (R-KY)

Contempt of Congress is a misdemeanor that can result in a fine of up to $100,000 and up to a year in jail if pursued by the DOJ (so, nothing will happen and the Clintons know it). 

Comer subpoenaed the Clintons seeking information regarding their personal interactions with Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, including documented flights on Epstein's private jet. 

The Clintons said in their letter that they anticipated Mr. Comer would argue that the decision about whether to testify was not theirs to make.

“But we have made it,” they wrote. “Now you have to make yours.”

The Clintons had worked to beef up their legal team before Mr. Comer’s deadline. They brought on Ashley Callen, co-chair of the congressional investigations practice at Jenner & Block, who had previously worked as general counsel for Speaker Mike Johnson and other top Republicans, to interface with G.O.P. members on the House Oversight Committee. Ms. Callen also previously worked as a deputy staff director on the House Oversight Committee under Mr. Comer.

They also sought assistance from Abbe Lowell, the veteran lawyer famous for representing clients in the middle of political scandals. -NYT

The refusal to testify comes after a December 2025 testimony was rescheduled due to a funeral. 

"Every person has to decide when they have seen or had enough and are ready to fight for this country, its principles and its people, no matter the consequences," the Clintons wrote in a lengthy letter to Comer obtained by the NY Times. "For us, now is that time."

They also accused Comer of potentially bringing Congress to a halt to pursue a politically driven process "literally designed to result in our imprisonment." 

"We are confident that any reasonable person in or out of Congress will see, based on everything we release, that what you are doing is trying to punish those who you see as your enemies and to protect those you think are your friends," they wrote, adding that they expected Comer to "release irrelevant, decades-old photos that you hope will embarrass us."

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 11:25

Beijing Responds As Trump's Iran-Related Tariffs Risk Derailing US-China Trade Deal

Zero Hedge -

Beijing Responds As Trump's Iran-Related Tariffs Risk Derailing US-China Trade Deal

China sharply criticized Washington's move to levy tariffs on countries trading with the Islamic Republic of Iran, issuing a statement Tuesday - less than 12 hours after President Trump announced the punitive action on Truth Social - condemning the decision.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated, "China's position on the tariff issue is very clear." She said, "We have always believed that there are no winners in a tariff war. China will resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests."

The Chinse embassy in Washington also blasted the move, characterizing the US action as "exceeding legal frameworks."

The United States will impose a 25% tariff on any nation conducting business with Iran. "Effective immediately, any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25 percent on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive," Trump had declared.

But this could have broader unintended consequences, and threatens to derail Washington's fragile trade deal with Beijing, which remains Tehran’s largest trading partner. According to more of the Chinese response:

The world’s top two economies had secured an interim trade deal in late October that saw a roll back of punitive U.S. tariffs on China, while Beijing paused its sweeping rare earth export controls.

In response to Trump’s tariff threat China said it “firmly opposes any illicit unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction,” while warning that it would take “all necessary measures” to defend its interests, according to a post on X by a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in the U.S.

Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, told CNBC that if Trump is serious about the 25% rate, "that is a massive escalation from current tariff levels."

"The last time we played this game, we ended up with tariff levels at 145%" - she added, warning about the potential for a tit-for-tat spiral, which would further halt any future plans of US soybean exports to China.

Trump's tariff decision comes amid violent unrest in Iran, described by Tehran as foreign-backed riots, which have left dozens dead - or possibly even hundreds according to unverified reports - including civilians and numerous members of the security forces.

Since the unrest began more than two weeks ago, the US president has repeatedly threatened military action against Iran, pledging to "rescue" anti-government protesters. 

Iran's national currency has collapsed to a record low, effectively losing all value against the US dollar. The economic downturn, driven largely by years of brutal US sanctions, has fueled widespread public discontent. But this street anger is also being 'hijacked' by external powers which want to see Iran destabilized, weakened, and it's ruling clerics and leaders overthrown.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 10:45

Beijing Responds As Trump's Iran-Related Tariffs Risk Derailing US-China Trade Deal

Zero Hedge -

Beijing Responds As Trump's Iran-Related Tariffs Risk Derailing US-China Trade Deal

China sharply criticized Washington's move to levy tariffs on countries trading with the Islamic Republic of Iran, issuing a statement Tuesday - less than 12 hours after President Trump announced the punitive action on Truth Social - condemning the decision.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated, "China's position on the tariff issue is very clear." She said, "We have always believed that there are no winners in a tariff war. China will resolutely safeguard its legitimate rights and interests."

The Chinse embassy in Washington also blasted the move, characterizing the US action as "exceeding legal frameworks."

The United States will impose a 25% tariff on any nation conducting business with Iran. "Effective immediately, any country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25 percent on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order is final and conclusive," Trump had declared.

But this could have broader unintended consequences, and threatens to derail Washington's fragile trade deal with Beijing, which remains Tehran’s largest trading partner. According to more of the Chinese response:

The world’s top two economies had secured an interim trade deal in late October that saw a roll back of punitive U.S. tariffs on China, while Beijing paused its sweeping rare earth export controls.

In response to Trump’s tariff threat China said it “firmly opposes any illicit unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction,” while warning that it would take “all necessary measures” to defend its interests, according to a post on X by a spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy in the U.S.

Deborah Elms, head of trade policy at the Hinrich Foundation, told CNBC that if Trump is serious about the 25% rate, "that is a massive escalation from current tariff levels."

"The last time we played this game, we ended up with tariff levels at 145%" - she added, warning about the potential for a tit-for-tat spiral, which would further halt any future plans of US soybean exports to China.

Trump's tariff decision comes amid violent unrest in Iran, described by Tehran as foreign-backed riots, which have left dozens dead - or possibly even hundreds according to unverified reports - including civilians and numerous members of the security forces.

Since the unrest began more than two weeks ago, the US president has repeatedly threatened military action against Iran, pledging to "rescue" anti-government protesters. 

Iran's national currency has collapsed to a record low, effectively losing all value against the US dollar. The economic downturn, driven largely by years of brutal US sanctions, has fueled widespread public discontent. But this street anger is also being 'hijacked' by external powers which want to see Iran destabilized, weakened, and it's ruling clerics and leaders overthrown.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 10:45

Fraud and Improper Payments: Data Quality and a Skilled Workforce Are Essential for Realizing Artificial Intelligence’s Benefits

GAO -

What GAO Found The federal government has tools and resources to help agencies combat fraud and improper payments. GAO has recommended improvements to the use of these tools and resources. For example, Congress should consider making permanent the Social Security Administration’s requirement to share its full death data with the Do Not Pay system to help prevent fraud and improper payments. Further, GAO has identified leading practices for managing fraud risks at federal agencies and has made recommendations to agencies to implement these practices. For example, in 2024, GAO recommended that the Department of Defense revise its Fraud Risk Management Strategy to include data analytics as a method to address fraud. Further, by implementing GAO’s recommendation, the Small Business Administration identified $4.7 billion in loans from the Paycheck Protection Program that were made before September 2020 and that went to ineligible recipients or were used for unauthorized purposes. Programs Reporting the Largest Estimates of Improper Payments in Fiscal Year 2024 Artificial intelligence (AI) and data analytics have the potential to enhance efforts to combat fraud and improper payments but also have challenges. For example, data analytics and AI could help agencies sift through large volumes of data. However, agencies need solid, reliable data and a human in the loop to ensure data reliability and appropriate application of the technology. GAO’s AI Accountability Framework for Federal Agencies and Other Entities includes key practices for ensuring data used in AI systems are high quality, reliable, and appropriate for the intended purpose. Further, to improve the use of data analytics in identifying fraud and improper payments, GAO recommended in 2022 that Congress establish a permanent analytics center of excellence. Additionally, the federal government requires an AI-ready workforce if AI is to help combat fraud and improper payments. However, GAO has identified mission-critical gaps in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics skills within the federal workforce and has reported on challenges agencies face in attracting and developing individuals with AI expertise. Why GAO Did This Study The distinct, yet interrelated, problems of fraud and improper payments are long-standing and pervasive. Fraud involves obtaining something of value through willful misrepresentation. Improper payments are payments that should not have been made or that were made in the wrong amount. GAO estimated that the federal government loses between $233 billion and $521 billion annually due to fraud, based on data for fiscal years 2018 through 2022. Since fiscal year 2003, cumulative improper payment estimates reported by executive branch agencies have totaled about $2.8 trillion. In fiscal year 2024, five programs accounted for most improper payments. These issues impact the integrity of federal programs and erode public trust. The advancement of AI and other innovative technologies presents opportunities and challenges for combatting fraud and improper payments. This statement discusses (1) examples of tools and resources Congress and federal agencies can leverage to improve existing efforts to combat fraud and improper payments without the use of AI, (2) opportunities and challenges for using data analytics and AI to combat fraud and improper payments, and (3) challenges in developing an AI-ready federal workforce. This statement is based on a body of work GAO issued between 2015 and 2025 including GAO-25-108172, GAO-25-107508, GAO‑21‑519SP, and GAO-25-107653.

Categories -

Mamdani Declares War On Civil Discourse

Zero Hedge -

Mamdani Declares War On Civil Discourse

Authored by Charles Mitchell via RealClearPolitics,

Zohran Mamdani’s inauguration speech on Jan. 1 became instantly famous for his promise to prove the “warmth of collectivism.” Yet Americans should pay just as much attention to another deeply concerning comment from the socialist mayor of New York City’s first act in office. He declared that those who are “fluent in the good grammar of civility have deployed decorum to mask agendas of cruelty,” implying that his administration won’t tolerate public debate about his agenda.

These words mark the moment when higher education’s radical monoculture jumped into the real world of political power and cultural impact. Our experiment in self-government is now at unprecedented risk.

Mamdani’s words are familiar to anyone who has followed the decline of the university in recent decades. It reflects the idea that respectful discourse – a central Enlightenment and American ideal – is really a tool of oppression used by elites to prop themselves up while keeping everyone else down. This belief is widespread on campus: A December poll from the free-speech group FIRE found that 90% of undergraduates think that “words can be violence.” Even worse, a third of students are willing to use actual violence to prevent the saying of those words. This is a generation prepared to stifle debate it dislikes, casting even the most well-meaning ideological opponents as enemies of society.

But Mamdani’s inauguration is the first time this generation has seized the levers of power outside of the classroom. It makes sense: His candidacy was driven by zealot-like support from young college graduates and students – the groups most likely to be radicalized. Now Mamdani, in some of his first words, is spreading the message that discourse is dangerous. This isn’t simply another college professor preaching to the undergrad choir. It’s the mayor of America’s most powerful city proselytizing the broader public about the supposed moral importance of stifling debate.

Mamdani’s rhetoric is especially dangerous due to his track record of enabling and encouraging antisemitism. Since Oct. 7, 2023, the biggest security bills my organization has paid have been for events in which Jewish students could discuss the Hamas attacks openly and experience their heritage – and that’s in a small town in rural Pennsylvania. Two of the speakers we hosted in November and protected were attacked, bloodied, and hospitalized the next day. But it’s just not Jewish people who are threatened when civil discourse is discarded. Everyone is at risk from the resulting breakdown of basic human decency.

Given the ideological capture of academia, the day was always going to come when the inmates started running the asylum. What’s shocking is that so many serious people failed to see it. A generation of well-meaning centrists let such extremism run riot in higher education, assuming that what happened on campus would surely stay there. It didn’t, and the resulting damage will not easily or quickly be undone.

But it must be confronted as soon as possible, which requires immediate action from sane Americans of all political stripes. While some may pin their hopes on the Trump administration, the real reform of higher education must happen elsewhere. As we enter America’s 250th year, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, and Texas policymakers have created new civics programs within their state universities. This is a template for further progress. At the very least, students should learn about the Enlightenment values that undergirded the American experiment before deciding whether they will join Mamdani in denouncing them.

The most important action, however, depends on philanthropists. Many of the country’s most successful people are profoundly disappointed by their alma maters, yet continue to make large, unrestricted gifts to them. This is profoundly self-defeating, insofar as it supports the training of a generation that rejects the foundations of American success. Instead, philanthropists should stop funding irreformable schools, establish new centers at the schools where there’s still a shred of hope, and even create new schools altogether, similar to the University of Austin. Whether on the sane left or the sane right, the donor’s goal should be to make civil discourse and respectful debate the defining part of a university’s work. That’s currently the case for only a handful of schools.

Zohran Mamdani is proof that the destructive ideology that defines the modern university is poised to damage America itself. He is the first of a wave of extremists who want to reshape society for the worse. Our best hope, as a country, is to begin building an even bigger wave of college graduates who practice civil discourse and promote social cohesion. This monumental challenge will take years. Untold harm will be done in the meantime. But the survival of our experiment in self-government ultimately depends on raising the next generation to choose a better, truer, and freer path than the one chosen by Zohran Mamdani and the radicalized army that elected him.

Charles Mitchell is co-founder and CEO of the Open Discourse Coalition.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 10:25

Mamdani Declares War On Civil Discourse

Zero Hedge -

Mamdani Declares War On Civil Discourse

Authored by Charles Mitchell via RealClearPolitics,

Zohran Mamdani’s inauguration speech on Jan. 1 became instantly famous for his promise to prove the “warmth of collectivism.” Yet Americans should pay just as much attention to another deeply concerning comment from the socialist mayor of New York City’s first act in office. He declared that those who are “fluent in the good grammar of civility have deployed decorum to mask agendas of cruelty,” implying that his administration won’t tolerate public debate about his agenda.

These words mark the moment when higher education’s radical monoculture jumped into the real world of political power and cultural impact. Our experiment in self-government is now at unprecedented risk.

Mamdani’s words are familiar to anyone who has followed the decline of the university in recent decades. It reflects the idea that respectful discourse – a central Enlightenment and American ideal – is really a tool of oppression used by elites to prop themselves up while keeping everyone else down. This belief is widespread on campus: A December poll from the free-speech group FIRE found that 90% of undergraduates think that “words can be violence.” Even worse, a third of students are willing to use actual violence to prevent the saying of those words. This is a generation prepared to stifle debate it dislikes, casting even the most well-meaning ideological opponents as enemies of society.

But Mamdani’s inauguration is the first time this generation has seized the levers of power outside of the classroom. It makes sense: His candidacy was driven by zealot-like support from young college graduates and students – the groups most likely to be radicalized. Now Mamdani, in some of his first words, is spreading the message that discourse is dangerous. This isn’t simply another college professor preaching to the undergrad choir. It’s the mayor of America’s most powerful city proselytizing the broader public about the supposed moral importance of stifling debate.

Mamdani’s rhetoric is especially dangerous due to his track record of enabling and encouraging antisemitism. Since Oct. 7, 2023, the biggest security bills my organization has paid have been for events in which Jewish students could discuss the Hamas attacks openly and experience their heritage – and that’s in a small town in rural Pennsylvania. Two of the speakers we hosted in November and protected were attacked, bloodied, and hospitalized the next day. But it’s just not Jewish people who are threatened when civil discourse is discarded. Everyone is at risk from the resulting breakdown of basic human decency.

Given the ideological capture of academia, the day was always going to come when the inmates started running the asylum. What’s shocking is that so many serious people failed to see it. A generation of well-meaning centrists let such extremism run riot in higher education, assuming that what happened on campus would surely stay there. It didn’t, and the resulting damage will not easily or quickly be undone.

But it must be confronted as soon as possible, which requires immediate action from sane Americans of all political stripes. While some may pin their hopes on the Trump administration, the real reform of higher education must happen elsewhere. As we enter America’s 250th year, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, and Texas policymakers have created new civics programs within their state universities. This is a template for further progress. At the very least, students should learn about the Enlightenment values that undergirded the American experiment before deciding whether they will join Mamdani in denouncing them.

The most important action, however, depends on philanthropists. Many of the country’s most successful people are profoundly disappointed by their alma maters, yet continue to make large, unrestricted gifts to them. This is profoundly self-defeating, insofar as it supports the training of a generation that rejects the foundations of American success. Instead, philanthropists should stop funding irreformable schools, establish new centers at the schools where there’s still a shred of hope, and even create new schools altogether, similar to the University of Austin. Whether on the sane left or the sane right, the donor’s goal should be to make civil discourse and respectful debate the defining part of a university’s work. That’s currently the case for only a handful of schools.

Zohran Mamdani is proof that the destructive ideology that defines the modern university is poised to damage America itself. He is the first of a wave of extremists who want to reshape society for the worse. Our best hope, as a country, is to begin building an even bigger wave of college graduates who practice civil discourse and promote social cohesion. This monumental challenge will take years. Untold harm will be done in the meantime. But the survival of our experiment in self-government ultimately depends on raising the next generation to choose a better, truer, and freer path than the one chosen by Zohran Mamdani and the radicalized army that elected him.

Charles Mitchell is co-founder and CEO of the Open Discourse Coalition.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 10:25

Mamdani Declares War On Civil Discourse

Zero Hedge -

Mamdani Declares War On Civil Discourse

Authored by Charles Mitchell via RealClearPolitics,

Zohran Mamdani’s inauguration speech on Jan. 1 became instantly famous for his promise to prove the “warmth of collectivism.” Yet Americans should pay just as much attention to another deeply concerning comment from the socialist mayor of New York City’s first act in office. He declared that those who are “fluent in the good grammar of civility have deployed decorum to mask agendas of cruelty,” implying that his administration won’t tolerate public debate about his agenda.

These words mark the moment when higher education’s radical monoculture jumped into the real world of political power and cultural impact. Our experiment in self-government is now at unprecedented risk.

Mamdani’s words are familiar to anyone who has followed the decline of the university in recent decades. It reflects the idea that respectful discourse – a central Enlightenment and American ideal – is really a tool of oppression used by elites to prop themselves up while keeping everyone else down. This belief is widespread on campus: A December poll from the free-speech group FIRE found that 90% of undergraduates think that “words can be violence.” Even worse, a third of students are willing to use actual violence to prevent the saying of those words. This is a generation prepared to stifle debate it dislikes, casting even the most well-meaning ideological opponents as enemies of society.

But Mamdani’s inauguration is the first time this generation has seized the levers of power outside of the classroom. It makes sense: His candidacy was driven by zealot-like support from young college graduates and students – the groups most likely to be radicalized. Now Mamdani, in some of his first words, is spreading the message that discourse is dangerous. This isn’t simply another college professor preaching to the undergrad choir. It’s the mayor of America’s most powerful city proselytizing the broader public about the supposed moral importance of stifling debate.

Mamdani’s rhetoric is especially dangerous due to his track record of enabling and encouraging antisemitism. Since Oct. 7, 2023, the biggest security bills my organization has paid have been for events in which Jewish students could discuss the Hamas attacks openly and experience their heritage – and that’s in a small town in rural Pennsylvania. Two of the speakers we hosted in November and protected were attacked, bloodied, and hospitalized the next day. But it’s just not Jewish people who are threatened when civil discourse is discarded. Everyone is at risk from the resulting breakdown of basic human decency.

Given the ideological capture of academia, the day was always going to come when the inmates started running the asylum. What’s shocking is that so many serious people failed to see it. A generation of well-meaning centrists let such extremism run riot in higher education, assuming that what happened on campus would surely stay there. It didn’t, and the resulting damage will not easily or quickly be undone.

But it must be confronted as soon as possible, which requires immediate action from sane Americans of all political stripes. While some may pin their hopes on the Trump administration, the real reform of higher education must happen elsewhere. As we enter America’s 250th year, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, and Texas policymakers have created new civics programs within their state universities. This is a template for further progress. At the very least, students should learn about the Enlightenment values that undergirded the American experiment before deciding whether they will join Mamdani in denouncing them.

The most important action, however, depends on philanthropists. Many of the country’s most successful people are profoundly disappointed by their alma maters, yet continue to make large, unrestricted gifts to them. This is profoundly self-defeating, insofar as it supports the training of a generation that rejects the foundations of American success. Instead, philanthropists should stop funding irreformable schools, establish new centers at the schools where there’s still a shred of hope, and even create new schools altogether, similar to the University of Austin. Whether on the sane left or the sane right, the donor’s goal should be to make civil discourse and respectful debate the defining part of a university’s work. That’s currently the case for only a handful of schools.

Zohran Mamdani is proof that the destructive ideology that defines the modern university is poised to damage America itself. He is the first of a wave of extremists who want to reshape society for the worse. Our best hope, as a country, is to begin building an even bigger wave of college graduates who practice civil discourse and promote social cohesion. This monumental challenge will take years. Untold harm will be done in the meantime. But the survival of our experiment in self-government ultimately depends on raising the next generation to choose a better, truer, and freer path than the one chosen by Zohran Mamdani and the radicalized army that elected him.

Charles Mitchell is co-founder and CEO of the Open Discourse Coalition.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 10:25

Coast Guard: Actions Needed to Improve Maritime Interdictions

GAO -

What GAO Found The Coast Guard, a multi-mission military service within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), uses its resources—including assets such as vessels and aircraft—to conduct its drug and migrant interdiction missions. Given limited resources, the Coast Guard made tradeoffs to address a significant increase in maritime migration levels that began in 2021. Specifically, it redirected assets to migrant interdiction that it had originally allocated to other missions, such as drug interdiction. This impacted its ability to conduct those other missions. The Coast Guard did not meet its primary drug interdiction performance target in fiscal years 2015 through 2024, and did not meet its primary migrant interdiction target for 6 years during the same period. See figures below. Coast Guard officials said neither primary measure effectively assesses its efforts. Thus, it began to implement new drug interdiction measures in fiscal years 2021 and 2022 to better assess its performance. As of July 2025, the Coast Guard had identified which would be its new primary drug interdiction measures. In addition, the Coast Guard is in the initial stages of developing new migrant interdiction performance measures, but as of July 2025 had not yet implemented them. Doing so would better position the Coast Guard to provide decision makers with relevant information to make future resource decisions. Coast Guard Annual Drug and Migrant Interdiction Primary Performance Measures The DHS Operation Vigilant Sentry task force provides a key coordination mechanism for the Coast Guard and about 10 federal partners responsible for maritime migrant interdiction. The Coast Guard and its federal partners generally followed seven of GAO’s eight leading collaboration practices identified in prior work. However, the task force did not fully share information on lessons learned. By implementing a process to identify and address lessons learned from events and sharing related reports with relevant federal partners, the task force would better address areas for improvement. This process could also help better manage fragmentation by ensuring all partners operate with similar information to support the migrant interdiction mission. Why GAO Did This Study The Coast Guard is the lead federal maritime agency responsible for interdicting illicit drug traffic and enforcing U.S. immigration laws and policies at sea. In fiscal years 2022 and 2023, it responded to the highest maritime migration levels in over 30 years. It has been conducting a migrant interdiction surge operation since August 2022. As of November 2025, the surge operation was ongoing. GAO was asked to review the Coast Guard’s drug and migrant interdiction missions. This report examines, among other things: (1) the extent the Coast Guard met its drug and migrant interdiction mission performance targets in fiscal years 2015–2024, (2) how its maritime migration surge operation in fiscal years 2022–2024 affected its ability to perform its other statutory missions, and (3) the extent it coordinated with federal partners to conduct maritime migrant interdiction. GAO analyzed Coast Guard drug and migrant interdiction performance data, and reviewed relevant policies and documentation. GAO also conducted in-person site visits to Miami, Florida and San Diego, California and interviewed Coast Guard officials and DHS partner agencies to discuss drug and migrant interdiction operations and related coordination efforts.

Categories -

Coast Guard: Actions Needed to Address Law Enforcement Mission Challenges

GAO -

What GAO Found The Coast Guard employs assets—including aircraft and vessels—and personnel to conduct law enforcement operations. In prior work, GAO identified longstanding challenges that have hindered the Coast Guard’s ability to meet its law enforcement mission demands. GAO made recommendations to help address asset availability, acquisitions, and workforce challenges, which the Coast Guard has yet to fully address. The Coast Guard’s vessels and aircraft have faced availability challenges and have been in a state of decline for decades. In June 2025 GAO found that the Medium Endurance Cutters availability to conduct missions declined from fiscal year 2020 through fiscal year 2024. GAO recommended that the Coast Guard address maintenance challenges and operational availability issues with these cutters, which it relies on for law enforcement missions. The Coast Guard’s declining asset availability is exacerbated by persistent and longstanding challenges managing its planned $40 billion acquisition programs to modernize its vessels and aircraft. In November 2025, GAO found that continued delays and cost overruns with the Offshore Patrol Cutter program—one of its highest priority acquisitions—is likely. GAO made four recommendations to address these issues GAO has identified longstanding staffing shortfalls and poor workforce planning, which have challenged the Coast Guard’s ability to meet its mission needs. For example, in June 2025, GAO reported that cutter crew vacancy rates increased from fiscal year 2017 through fiscal year 2024, according to the most recent Coast Guard data at the time. GAO recommended that the Coast Guard develop a clear plan to support its workforce retention initiatives, among other recommendations. Coast Guard Migrant Interdiction Why GAO Did This Study The U.S. government has identified transnational and domestic criminal organizations as a significant threat to the public, law enforcement, and national security. The Coast Guard is the nation’s lead federal maritime law enforcement agency. It received nearly $25 billion in supplemental funding in fiscal year 2025 for various acquisitions and in support of efforts to modernize operations and capabilities. The Coast Guard is a component of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). It conducts maritime law enforcement, including: drug interdiction, migrant interdiction, and other missions (which include fisheries law enforcement work to prevent illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing). This statement discusses Coast Guard challenges GAO previously identified related to its law enforcement missions. This statement is based primarily on six GAO reports published from June 2023 to January 2026.

Categories -

As Trump Threatens Iran, Most Of The US Navy Strike Group Remains In Caribbean

Zero Hedge -

As Trump Threatens Iran, Most Of The US Navy Strike Group Remains In Caribbean

Update(1420ET): President Trump just said something very revealing while in Michigan. He admitted he really doesn't know the death toll in Iran after a couple weeks of raging protests and violence. In classic Trump fashion, he started the morning by issuing direct threats of military intervention, but now seems to obfuscate, keeping Iranian leaders and the world guessing...

But there's reason to believe that even if Trump wanted to order some kind of 'kinetic strikes' on the Islamic Republic, it may not be imminent. Regional analyst Levent Kemal has observed:

I don't think help is on the way. And no matter how much Trump threatens, most of the US Navy strike group is still in the Caribbean. The matter of F15 or F22 aircraft accompanying the plan to strike Khamenei with B52s remains unclear. Maybe Israeli F35 can escort and support them. Even if he did something limited, there doesn't seem to be any capacity ready to defend against the response that would follow. He needs, I think, at least 5 days.

Kemal concludes by pointing out that anything within this window would have to involve Israel doing a lot of heavy lifting. Meanwhile, the following won't happen anytime soon (driving oil down) if Trump keeps threatening Iran with military intervention:

  • TRUMP: WE'LL GET OIL PRICES DOWN EVEN FURTHER
  • TRUMP'S ENVOY SECRETLY MET IRAN'S EXILED CROWN PRINCE -AXIOS
  • WITKOFF MET IRAN'S EXILED CROWN PRINCE OVER THE WEEKEND: AXIOS
AFP/Getty Images

There's reason to believe that the White House is not close to ordering fresh attacks on Iran.

"What you’re hearing publicly from the Iranian regime is quite different from the messages the administration is receiving privately, and I think the president has an interest in exploring those messages," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Monday. "However, with that said, the president has shown he’s unafraid to use military options if and when he deems necessary, and nobody knows that better than Iran." But that seemed to reveal the administration's real thinking on the issue.

On this question of casualty numbers in Iran...

* * *

Update(0953ET): President Trump on Tuesday morning has called on Iranians to keep protesting in the streets, where clashes with security services have spiraled and turned violent - but in some locations have waned. He's told Iranians to "take over your institutions" - which is essentially a call for coup or armed insurrection.

Trump further said he has canceled all meetings with Iranian officials, after yesterday's reports that the two sides were looking to jump-start diplomacy of official contacts if Tehran leaders cooperate, and don't kill any protesters. But now Trump is doing his typical thing of quickly ratcheting pressure to the max. He's reiterated that HELP IS ON THE WAY - suggesting military intervention could be imminent, in the following Truth Social statement.

This resulted in an immediate spike in oil prices, already amid war rumors, as the Commander-in-Chief has been briefed on military "options" - despite the Islamic Republic not having attacked the United States or any of its regional bases.

We detailed below that Iran's government has begun to face a potential deadly insurgency, and even anti-Tehran NGOs have admitted that dozens of police and security personnel have been killed - and even knifed and shot.

* * *

Facing global condemnation and threats of US intervention over casualties associated with anti-government protests, the Iranian government summoned French, German, Italian and British ambassadors in Tehran and screened a collection of videos purportedly showing "armed violence carried out by protesters." Saying the images belie the notion that protests have been uniformly peaceful, Iran demanded that the envoys share the videos with their respective governments and stop voicing support of the "rioters."  

In a screenshot of the video presented to a roomful of European diplomats, a masked individual fires a pump-action shotgun

The ambassadors' Monday matinee coincided with massive pro-government demonstrations in Iran. The presentation included imagery of individuals firing pump-action shotguns and pistols. Other clips showed makeshift barricades on city streets, and groups of people vandalizing cars and flipping them over. There were also multiple apparent examples of arson, including burnt-out buildings, cars and buses. There's also testimony given by a bloodied man, identified as a law enforcement officer, on a hospital gurney. Asked what he was hit by, he replies: 

"I don't know. Knives and things. I was holding my helmet to guard my head...then they pulled off my pants, dragged me," reads the on-screen transcription. "I was told to get up and go. I couldn't. Told them to help me. Then they dragged me toward the square so I got run over by cars." 

Attempting to portray the US government as hypocritical, the video presentation included a clip of anti-ICE activist Renee Good being shot in the head by ICE agents in Minneapolis last week, along with President Trump's reaction. "The woman screaming was, obviously, a professional agitator, and the woman driving the car was very disorderly, obstructing and resisting," Trump said, adding that the ICE officer "seems to have shot her in self-defense." The presentation closed with another quote from Trump, when he warned that, "If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, the United States of America will come to their rescue." 

Iran's foreign ministry directed the assembled diplomats to "hand over these videos to their governments and stop supporting the protesters," saying that foreign governments giving "any form of political or information support for rioters" represents wrongful interference with Iran's internal affairs.

According to Iranian state news outlet Press TV, President Masoud Pezeshkian accused US and Israeli intelligence agencies of training armed units, with that training happening both inside and outside the country. If outside governments are directly aiding the agitators, it wouldn't be the first time that technique was used in an attempt to impose regime change on Iran. In 1953, US and British intelligence engineered a coup d'etat that ousted Iran's democratically-elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh. "Operation Ajax" involved the use of CIA-funded Iranian agents and "rented" crowds of anti-government demonstrators.

Soon after the presentation in Tehran, the European Parliament announced a "ban [of] all diplomatic staff and any other representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran from all European Parliament premises," to avoid support the "brave people of Iran" and to avoid "aid[ing] in legitimising this regime that has sustained itself through torture, repression and murder." 

Fueling diplomatic disputes, the American son of the deposed Shah of Iran urged members of the Iranian diaspora to replace the "disgraceful" flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the country's diplomatic facilities. That exhortation came after a video went viral over the weekend, showing a protester scaling a balcony of Iran's London embassy and replacing the flag with the version used during the Shah's rule. Iran separately summoned the UK ambassador and formally protested "the desecration of the Iranian flag." The former shah's son, Reza Pahlavi, is aggressively pushing for US intervention and promoting himself as the best "transitional figure" after regime change.   

On Sunday, Vice President Mohammad‑Reza Aref portrayed the discord as a new phase of Israel's confrontation with Iran, after June's 12-day war. "The enemies made a mistake by starting the riots through their key agents who were arrested by Iran’s security forces," following which "they had no option but to accelerate their plots, which led to violent incidents in the last few nights," Aref said. He added that Iran's enemies have sought to thwart each of the country's attempts to overcome foreign sanctions.

The Iranian protests began on Dec 29, with merchants railing against the plunging value of Iran's currency -- the rial now trades at 1.4 million to the dollar. More than two weeks later, the death toll is widely reported to be several hundred. Many US outlets are relying on numbers from the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). The group, which is a subsidiary of Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRA), says 646 people have been killed through Monday, including 505 protesters, 133 security personnel, a prosecutor and seven civilian bystanders.    

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 09:53

As Trump Threatens Iran, Most Of The US Navy Strike Group Remains In Caribbean

Zero Hedge -

As Trump Threatens Iran, Most Of The US Navy Strike Group Remains In Caribbean

Update(1420ET): President Trump just said something very revealing while in Michigan. He admitted he really doesn't know the death toll in Iran after a couple weeks of raging protests and violence. In classic Trump fashion, he started the morning by issuing direct threats of military intervention, but now seems to obfuscate, keeping Iranian leaders and the world guessing...

But there's reason to believe that even if Trump wanted to order some kind of 'kinetic strikes' on the Islamic Republic, it may not be imminent. Regional analyst Levent Kemal has observed:

I don't think help is on the way. And no matter how much Trump threatens, most of the US Navy strike group is still in the Caribbean. The matter of F15 or F22 aircraft accompanying the plan to strike Khamenei with B52s remains unclear. Maybe Israeli F35 can escort and support them. Even if he did something limited, there doesn't seem to be any capacity ready to defend against the response that would follow. He needs, I think, at least 5 days.

Kemal concludes by pointing out that anything within this window would have to involve Israel doing a lot of heavy lifting. Meanwhile, the following won't happen anytime soon (driving oil down) if Trump keeps threatening Iran with military intervention:

  • TRUMP: WE'LL GET OIL PRICES DOWN EVEN FURTHER
  • TRUMP'S ENVOY SECRETLY MET IRAN'S EXILED CROWN PRINCE -AXIOS
  • WITKOFF MET IRAN'S EXILED CROWN PRINCE OVER THE WEEKEND: AXIOS
AFP/Getty Images

There's reason to believe that the White House is not close to ordering fresh attacks on Iran.

"What you’re hearing publicly from the Iranian regime is quite different from the messages the administration is receiving privately, and I think the president has an interest in exploring those messages," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Monday. "However, with that said, the president has shown he’s unafraid to use military options if and when he deems necessary, and nobody knows that better than Iran." But that seemed to reveal the administration's real thinking on the issue.

On this question of casualty numbers in Iran...

* * *

Update(0953ET): President Trump on Tuesday morning has called on Iranians to keep protesting in the streets, where clashes with security services have spiraled and turned violent - but in some locations have waned. He's told Iranians to "take over your institutions" - which is essentially a call for coup or armed insurrection.

Trump further said he has canceled all meetings with Iranian officials, after yesterday's reports that the two sides were looking to jump-start diplomacy of official contacts if Tehran leaders cooperate, and don't kill any protesters. But now Trump is doing his typical thing of quickly ratcheting pressure to the max. He's reiterated that HELP IS ON THE WAY - suggesting military intervention could be imminent, in the following Truth Social statement.

This resulted in an immediate spike in oil prices, already amid war rumors, as the Commander-in-Chief has been briefed on military "options" - despite the Islamic Republic not having attacked the United States or any of its regional bases.

We detailed below that Iran's government has begun to face a potential deadly insurgency, and even anti-Tehran NGOs have admitted that dozens of police and security personnel have been killed - and even knifed and shot.

* * *

Facing global condemnation and threats of US intervention over casualties associated with anti-government protests, the Iranian government summoned French, German, Italian and British ambassadors in Tehran and screened a collection of videos purportedly showing "armed violence carried out by protesters." Saying the images belie the notion that protests have been uniformly peaceful, Iran demanded that the envoys share the videos with their respective governments and stop voicing support of the "rioters."  

In a screenshot of the video presented to a roomful of European diplomats, a masked individual fires a pump-action shotgun

The ambassadors' Monday matinee coincided with massive pro-government demonstrations in Iran. The presentation included imagery of individuals firing pump-action shotguns and pistols. Other clips showed makeshift barricades on city streets, and groups of people vandalizing cars and flipping them over. There were also multiple apparent examples of arson, including burnt-out buildings, cars and buses. There's also testimony given by a bloodied man, identified as a law enforcement officer, on a hospital gurney. Asked what he was hit by, he replies: 

"I don't know. Knives and things. I was holding my helmet to guard my head...then they pulled off my pants, dragged me," reads the on-screen transcription. "I was told to get up and go. I couldn't. Told them to help me. Then they dragged me toward the square so I got run over by cars." 

Attempting to portray the US government as hypocritical, the video presentation included a clip of anti-ICE activist Renee Good being shot in the head by ICE agents in Minneapolis last week, along with President Trump's reaction. "The woman screaming was, obviously, a professional agitator, and the woman driving the car was very disorderly, obstructing and resisting," Trump said, adding that the ICE officer "seems to have shot her in self-defense." The presentation closed with another quote from Trump, when he warned that, "If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, the United States of America will come to their rescue." 

Iran's foreign ministry directed the assembled diplomats to "hand over these videos to their governments and stop supporting the protesters," saying that foreign governments giving "any form of political or information support for rioters" represents wrongful interference with Iran's internal affairs.

According to Iranian state news outlet Press TV, President Masoud Pezeshkian accused US and Israeli intelligence agencies of training armed units, with that training happening both inside and outside the country. If outside governments are directly aiding the agitators, it wouldn't be the first time that technique was used in an attempt to impose regime change on Iran. In 1953, US and British intelligence engineered a coup d'etat that ousted Iran's democratically-elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh. "Operation Ajax" involved the use of CIA-funded Iranian agents and "rented" crowds of anti-government demonstrators.

Soon after the presentation in Tehran, the European Parliament announced a "ban [of] all diplomatic staff and any other representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran from all European Parliament premises," to avoid support the "brave people of Iran" and to avoid "aid[ing] in legitimising this regime that has sustained itself through torture, repression and murder." 

Fueling diplomatic disputes, the American son of the deposed Shah of Iran urged members of the Iranian diaspora to replace the "disgraceful" flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the country's diplomatic facilities. That exhortation came after a video went viral over the weekend, showing a protester scaling a balcony of Iran's London embassy and replacing the flag with the version used during the Shah's rule. Iran separately summoned the UK ambassador and formally protested "the desecration of the Iranian flag." The former shah's son, Reza Pahlavi, is aggressively pushing for US intervention and promoting himself as the best "transitional figure" after regime change.   

On Sunday, Vice President Mohammad‑Reza Aref portrayed the discord as a new phase of Israel's confrontation with Iran, after June's 12-day war. "The enemies made a mistake by starting the riots through their key agents who were arrested by Iran’s security forces," following which "they had no option but to accelerate their plots, which led to violent incidents in the last few nights," Aref said. He added that Iran's enemies have sought to thwart each of the country's attempts to overcome foreign sanctions.

The Iranian protests began on Dec 29, with merchants railing against the plunging value of Iran's currency -- the rial now trades at 1.4 million to the dollar. More than two weeks later, the death toll is widely reported to be several hundred. Many US outlets are relying on numbers from the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). The group, which is a subsidiary of Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRA), says 646 people have been killed through Monday, including 505 protesters, 133 security personnel, a prosecutor and seven civilian bystanders.    

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 09:53

As Trump Threatens Iran, Most Of The US Navy Strike Group Remains In Caribbean

Zero Hedge -

As Trump Threatens Iran, Most Of The US Navy Strike Group Remains In Caribbean

Update(1420ET): President Trump just said something very revealing while in Michigan. He admitted he really doesn't know the death toll in Iran after a couple weeks of raging protests and violence. In classic Trump fashion, he started the morning by issuing direct threats of military intervention, but now seems to obfuscate, keeping Iranian leaders and the world guessing...

But there's reason to believe that even if Trump wanted to order some kind of 'kinetic strikes' on the Islamic Republic, it may not be imminent. Regional analyst Levent Kemal has observed:

I don't think help is on the way. And no matter how much Trump threatens, most of the US Navy strike group is still in the Caribbean. The matter of F15 or F22 aircraft accompanying the plan to strike Khamenei with B52s remains unclear. Maybe Israeli F35 can escort and support them. Even if he did something limited, there doesn't seem to be any capacity ready to defend against the response that would follow. He needs, I think, at least 5 days.

Kemal concludes by pointing out that anything within this window would have to involve Israel doing a lot of heavy lifting. Meanwhile, the following won't happen anytime soon (driving oil down) if Trump keeps threatening Iran with military intervention:

  • TRUMP: WE'LL GET OIL PRICES DOWN EVEN FURTHER
  • TRUMP'S ENVOY SECRETLY MET IRAN'S EXILED CROWN PRINCE -AXIOS
  • WITKOFF MET IRAN'S EXILED CROWN PRINCE OVER THE WEEKEND: AXIOS
AFP/Getty Images

There's reason to believe that the White House is not close to ordering fresh attacks on Iran.

"What you’re hearing publicly from the Iranian regime is quite different from the messages the administration is receiving privately, and I think the president has an interest in exploring those messages," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters Monday. "However, with that said, the president has shown he’s unafraid to use military options if and when he deems necessary, and nobody knows that better than Iran." But that seemed to reveal the administration's real thinking on the issue.

On this question of casualty numbers in Iran...

* * *

Update(0953ET): President Trump on Tuesday morning has called on Iranians to keep protesting in the streets, where clashes with security services have spiraled and turned violent - but in some locations have waned. He's told Iranians to "take over your institutions" - which is essentially a call for coup or armed insurrection.

Trump further said he has canceled all meetings with Iranian officials, after yesterday's reports that the two sides were looking to jump-start diplomacy of official contacts if Tehran leaders cooperate, and don't kill any protesters. But now Trump is doing his typical thing of quickly ratcheting pressure to the max. He's reiterated that HELP IS ON THE WAY - suggesting military intervention could be imminent, in the following Truth Social statement.

This resulted in an immediate spike in oil prices, already amid war rumors, as the Commander-in-Chief has been briefed on military "options" - despite the Islamic Republic not having attacked the United States or any of its regional bases.

We detailed below that Iran's government has begun to face a potential deadly insurgency, and even anti-Tehran NGOs have admitted that dozens of police and security personnel have been killed - and even knifed and shot.

* * *

Facing global condemnation and threats of US intervention over casualties associated with anti-government protests, the Iranian government summoned French, German, Italian and British ambassadors in Tehran and screened a collection of videos purportedly showing "armed violence carried out by protesters." Saying the images belie the notion that protests have been uniformly peaceful, Iran demanded that the envoys share the videos with their respective governments and stop voicing support of the "rioters."  

In a screenshot of the video presented to a roomful of European diplomats, a masked individual fires a pump-action shotgun

The ambassadors' Monday matinee coincided with massive pro-government demonstrations in Iran. The presentation included imagery of individuals firing pump-action shotguns and pistols. Other clips showed makeshift barricades on city streets, and groups of people vandalizing cars and flipping them over. There were also multiple apparent examples of arson, including burnt-out buildings, cars and buses. There's also testimony given by a bloodied man, identified as a law enforcement officer, on a hospital gurney. Asked what he was hit by, he replies: 

"I don't know. Knives and things. I was holding my helmet to guard my head...then they pulled off my pants, dragged me," reads the on-screen transcription. "I was told to get up and go. I couldn't. Told them to help me. Then they dragged me toward the square so I got run over by cars." 

Attempting to portray the US government as hypocritical, the video presentation included a clip of anti-ICE activist Renee Good being shot in the head by ICE agents in Minneapolis last week, along with President Trump's reaction. "The woman screaming was, obviously, a professional agitator, and the woman driving the car was very disorderly, obstructing and resisting," Trump said, adding that the ICE officer "seems to have shot her in self-defense." The presentation closed with another quote from Trump, when he warned that, "If Iran shots [sic] and violently kills peaceful protesters, the United States of America will come to their rescue." 

Iran's foreign ministry directed the assembled diplomats to "hand over these videos to their governments and stop supporting the protesters," saying that foreign governments giving "any form of political or information support for rioters" represents wrongful interference with Iran's internal affairs.

According to Iranian state news outlet Press TV, President Masoud Pezeshkian accused US and Israeli intelligence agencies of training armed units, with that training happening both inside and outside the country. If outside governments are directly aiding the agitators, it wouldn't be the first time that technique was used in an attempt to impose regime change on Iran. In 1953, US and British intelligence engineered a coup d'etat that ousted Iran's democratically-elected prime minister, Mohammad Mosaddegh. "Operation Ajax" involved the use of CIA-funded Iranian agents and "rented" crowds of anti-government demonstrators.

Soon after the presentation in Tehran, the European Parliament announced a "ban [of] all diplomatic staff and any other representatives of the Islamic Republic of Iran from all European Parliament premises," to avoid support the "brave people of Iran" and to avoid "aid[ing] in legitimising this regime that has sustained itself through torture, repression and murder." 

Fueling diplomatic disputes, the American son of the deposed Shah of Iran urged members of the Iranian diaspora to replace the "disgraceful" flag of the Islamic Republic of Iran at the country's diplomatic facilities. That exhortation came after a video went viral over the weekend, showing a protester scaling a balcony of Iran's London embassy and replacing the flag with the version used during the Shah's rule. Iran separately summoned the UK ambassador and formally protested "the desecration of the Iranian flag." The former shah's son, Reza Pahlavi, is aggressively pushing for US intervention and promoting himself as the best "transitional figure" after regime change.   

On Sunday, Vice President Mohammad‑Reza Aref portrayed the discord as a new phase of Israel's confrontation with Iran, after June's 12-day war. "The enemies made a mistake by starting the riots through their key agents who were arrested by Iran’s security forces," following which "they had no option but to accelerate their plots, which led to violent incidents in the last few nights," Aref said. He added that Iran's enemies have sought to thwart each of the country's attempts to overcome foreign sanctions.

The Iranian protests began on Dec 29, with merchants railing against the plunging value of Iran's currency -- the rial now trades at 1.4 million to the dollar. More than two weeks later, the death toll is widely reported to be several hundred. Many US outlets are relying on numbers from the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA). The group, which is a subsidiary of Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRA), says 646 people have been killed through Monday, including 505 protesters, 133 security personnel, a prosecutor and seven civilian bystanders.    

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/13/2026 - 09:53

"Entered New Era": SK Hynix To Build $13 Billion Memory Plant As Nvidia CEO Says AI Demand Soaring

Zero Hedge -

"Entered New Era": SK Hynix To Build $13 Billion Memory Plant As Nvidia CEO Says AI Demand Soaring

One week after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told the auidence at CES Las Vegas that AI data centers are creating a "market that never existed" for memory, the global leader in high-bandwidth memory, SK Hynix, announced that construction of a new $13 billion advanced memory manufacturing plant will begin this spring, with first production targeted for the second half of 2027, as it races furiously to keep up with surging AI-driven demand.

As Nvidia's main HBM supplier, SK Hynix sits at the center of the memory supply chain and has become a headwind for AI data center growth. With HBM prices soaring, we have been documenting the key developments across the space:

SK Hynix's HBM is the stacked DRAM Nvidia uses on H100, H200, Blackwell, and every AI accelerator shipping through 2030. It's easily half or more of the world's HBM supplies, ahead of both Samsung and Micron.

Last week, Huang told the audience at CES, "For storage, that is a completely unserved market today. This is a market that never existed, and this market will likely be the largest storage market in the world, basically holding the working memory of the world's AIs."

The SK Hynix forecast shows the HBM market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 33% from 2025 to 2030.

"The importance of proactively responding to rising HBM demand is becoming increasingly critical," SK Hynix wrote in a statement.

Chey Tae-won, chairman of SK Hynix parent SK Group, warned of tight supplies late last year. "We have entered an era in which supply is facing a bottleneck. We are receiving memory chip supply requests from many companies, and we are thinking hard about how to address all demands."

Ty Tue, 01/13/2026 - 09:30

"Entered New Era": SK Hynix To Build $13 Billion Memory Plant As Nvidia CEO Says AI Demand Soaring

Zero Hedge -

"Entered New Era": SK Hynix To Build $13 Billion Memory Plant As Nvidia CEO Says AI Demand Soaring

One week after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told the auidence at CES Las Vegas that AI data centers are creating a "market that never existed" for memory, the global leader in high-bandwidth memory, SK Hynix, announced that construction of a new $13 billion advanced memory manufacturing plant will begin this spring, with first production targeted for the second half of 2027, as it races furiously to keep up with surging AI-driven demand.

As Nvidia's main HBM supplier, SK Hynix sits at the center of the memory supply chain and has become a headwind for AI data center growth. With HBM prices soaring, we have been documenting the key developments across the space:

SK Hynix's HBM is the stacked DRAM Nvidia uses on H100, H200, Blackwell, and every AI accelerator shipping through 2030. It's easily half or more of the world's HBM supplies, ahead of both Samsung and Micron.

Last week, Huang told the audience at CES, "For storage, that is a completely unserved market today. This is a market that never existed, and this market will likely be the largest storage market in the world, basically holding the working memory of the world's AIs."

The SK Hynix forecast shows the HBM market is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 33% from 2025 to 2030.

"The importance of proactively responding to rising HBM demand is becoming increasingly critical," SK Hynix wrote in a statement.

Chey Tae-won, chairman of SK Hynix parent SK Group, warned of tight supplies late last year. "We have entered an era in which supply is facing a bottleneck. We are receiving memory chip supply requests from many companies, and we are thinking hard about how to address all demands."

Ty Tue, 01/13/2026 - 09:30

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