JPMorgan Kicks Off Earnings Season With Another Stellar Quarter As Dimon Flags "Heightened Uncertainty"

And they're off. As is now customary, moments ago JPM reported Q3 earnings officially launching the third quarter earnings season with another batch of impressive results which beat across the board.

Starting at the top, JPM reported Q3 revenue which beat by almost $2 billion, thanks to another quarter of stellar FICC and equity sales and trading, with investment banking also coming strong and advisory rounding out the segments that beat. The bottom line was Net Income of $14.4 billion, a solid beat to consensus expectations, and a 14% increase YoY.

Here are the details:

• Adjusted revenue $47.12 billion, beating estimates of $45.48 billion 
  • Markets revenue of $8.9 billion, up 25% YoY
    • FICC sales & trading revenue $5.61 billion, beating estimates of $5.33 billion
    • Equities sales & trading revenue $3.33 billion, beating estimates of $3.04 billion
  • Investment banking revenue $2.69 billion, beating estimates of $2.67 billion
• Net interest income $24.07 billion, just below estimates of $24.16 billion
• Non-interest expenses $24.28 billion, below estimates of $24.31 billion, but up 8% YoY, predominantly driven by higher compensation, including higher revenue-related compensation and growth in front office employees, as well as higher brokerage expense and distribution fees, higher auto lease depreciation and higher marketing expense, partially offset by lower legal expense
  • Compensation expenses $13.57 billion, below estimates of $13.87 billion
• EPS $5.07, up 16% YoY and beating estimates of $4.82

Of note here was JPM's slightly higher than expected provision for credit losses which came at $3.4 billion, compared to a consensus estimate of $3.08 billion, and higher than the $3.1 billion from a year ago. The higher provision was due to charge offs of $2.59 billion coupled with JPMorgan adding $810 million to its loan-loss reserve in Q3, double the reserve it took out in Q2. The bank attributed the figure to $608mm in Consumer and $205mm in Wholesale, and said that the impact from chargeoffs was related to borrower-related collateral irregularities and some other factors. It’s now boosted that reserve by almost $1.4 billion this year, seemingly prepping for more defaults to come. Bloomberg has previously reported that JPMorgan, Fifth Third Bancorp and Barclays were among banks bracing for potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in combined losses from loans tied to subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings.

Adding to that point, Jamie Dimon pointed to a "heightened degree of uncertainty from complex geopolitical conditions, tariffs and trade uncertainty, elevated asset prices and the risk of sticky inflation." Still, the CEO said that while there have been some signs of a softening, particularly in job growth, the US economy generally remained resilient, and the bank benefited from higher client activity. 

While comp expense did drop a bit, it still remained the elephant in the spending room because despite all the talk about cost savings and job losses from the AI revolution, they’ve yet to show up in the bank’s headcount figures. A year ago, JPMorgan employed just over 316,000 people; 12 months on, the number has ticked up a little to 318,153.

Turning to JPM's "Fortress" Balance sheet, we find some disappointing elements of weakness:

• Net yield on interest-earning assets 2.45%, missing estimates of 2.48%
• Standardized CET1 ratio 14.8%, missing estimates of 15.1%
• Managed overhead ratio 52%, missing estimates of 53.2%
• Return on equity 17%, beating estimates of 15.7%
• Return on tangible common equity 20%, beating estimates of 18.8%
• Assets under management $4.60 trillion, beating estimates of $4.52 trillion
• Tangible book value per share $105.70, beating estimates of $104.57
• Book value per share $124.96, beating estimates of $124.33
• Cash and due from banks $21.82 billion, below estimates of $23.69 billion
• Loans $1.44 trillion, beating the estimate $1.42 trillion
• Total deposits $2.55 trillion, beating the estimate $2.58 trillion

The visual summary:

What stands out here is that while rates and margins are coming down, revolving card balances have increased as consumers get ever deeper in debt, helping the bank maintain its net interest income. Average loans in the cards business hit $234 billion in the last quarter, up from $217 billion a year ago.

Turning to the all-important Commercial and Investment Bank, JPM reported stellar markets revenue which at $8.9B, was up 25% YoY:

• Fixed Income Markets revenue of $5.61B, beating estimates of $5.33B and up 21% YoY, largely driven by higher revenue in Rates, Credit and the Securitized Products Group
• Equity Markets revenue of $3.3B, beating estimates of $3.04B and up 33% YoY, predominantly driven by higher revenue across products, particularly in Prime
• IB revenue of $2.7B, up 14% YoY, driven by higher fees across all products:
  • Advisory revenue $926 million, beating estimates of $901.3 million
  • Equity underwriting rev. $527 million, beating estimates of $457.1 million
  • Debt underwriting rev. $1.17 billion, beating estimates of $1.16 billion
• Securities Services revenue of $1.4B, up 7% YoY, driven by higher deposit balances as well as fee growth on higher client activity and market levels, partially offset by deposit margin compression

As Bloomberg notes, it’s easy to see why JPM has posted such strong numbers in investment banking: fees from that unit are up 16% YoY. It was the busiest quarter for IPOs since 2021. There has also been a noticeable pickup in new M&A announcements, and that will feed into the fee line for at least another couple of quarters. 

On the other side of the ledger, expenses were up 11% to $9.7B, driven by higher compensation and brokerage expense. Compensation expense was up 6% through the first nine months of the year compared to the same period last year. Tech expense is outpacing the growth in comp, up 11% this year, and on track to exceed $10 billion for the full year. In other words, it is shaping up as a good year for bonuses. 

Separately, the company reported that credit costs in the group were $809mm, driven by net lending activity, the impact of chargeoffs related to what appears to be borrower-related collateral irregularities in certain secured lending facilities and changes in credit quality of certain exposures, partially offset by updates to macroeconomic variables. We assume this is related to the Tricolor Bankruptcy. 

In the consumer and community banking business, while home lending revenues were down 3% on the same quarter a year ago, this was more than offset by a 12% rise in card services and auto, and a 9% uptick in banking and wealth management.  Separately, when it comes to return on equity, Bloomberg notes that consumer and community banking is "an absolute monster." This time last year JPMorgan was making a healthy 29% ROE from CCB, but a year on, this has risen to 35%. To put that in some context, the bank’s flashier commercial and investment banking operations increased their return from 17% to 18% over the same period. Also of note, provisions for credit losses in the consumer and community banking division were $2.5 billion in the quarter, 9% smaller year-on-year. While the bank has continued to build provisions based on loan growth in its cards business, this has been offset on by “reduced borrower uncertainty.”

Turning to the bank's asset and wealth management division, the booming stock market continues to be a major boost here, with assets under management rising 18% to $4.6 trillion, while client assets rose 20% to $6.8 trillion as a result of both net inflows and rises in markets. And talking of ROEs, asset and wealth management also managed a respectable 40% return on equity in the last quarter. This was a rise of 6 percentage points year-on-year.

Looking ahead, JPM raised its guidance again, and now sees FY Net Interest Income of $95.8BN - due to $25BN forecast in Q4 - up from its previous forecast of $95.5BN and above the $95.5BN median estimate. The bank also sees NII ex-Markets of $92.2BN, also an improvement from $92.0BN.

In response, JPMorgan shares swung between gains and losses premarket. Now down around 0.5%. Still, they are faring better than S&P 500 contracts, with futures down over 1%.  

The full investor presentation is here (pdf link).

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 07:54

'I Am Your Champion': Nigel Farage Makes Case For UK Crypto Reform

Authored by Mat Di Salvo via Decrypt.co,

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said Monday that the digital asset space needs better regulation in Britain. 

Speaking at the Digital Asset Summit 2025 in London, Farage said that there is no regulated market for crypto in the UK right now.

He called for "sensible regulation, not the ludicrous regulation we now have on equities and elsewhere" in the country. 

"This whole area of digital assets and crypto just isn't being talked about at all," Farage said.

"We've got no regulated market. You need some regulation—a sensible level of regulation."

He added:

"My deep frustration—despite one speech by [ex-UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak] on this, the government of today has done nothing in this area."

The former leader of the Conservative Party Rishi Sunak, who was PM from 2022 to 2024, said back in 2022 that he wanted the UK to be "a global crypto asset technology hub." 

Despite this, not a single major party mentioned crypto in their manifestos ahead of the 2024 elections in the UK. 

The co-founder of UK lobbying firm Athena Technologies, Conrad Young, in 2024 told Decrypt that this was "a significant missed opportunity."

Crypto is a key battle ground in the U.S. presidential election. But as the UK general election heats up, no major political party has taken a stance on the industry. Last week, the two major political parties in the UK published manifestos outlining their vision of the future. Across the combined 222 pages, there was not a single mention of crypto, blockchain, or CBDCs. In fact, broadening the search to include the three largest alternative UK political parties there is only one mention of thes...

Farage, an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, is now pushing for a crypto-friendly framework in the country—and similarly is presenting himself as an advocate for crypto investors and builders in his country as he makes his case to potentially be future UK prime minister.

"Whether you like or dislike many of the political positions I've taken over the past three decades is frankly irrelevant: When it comes to your industry, when it comes to growth in this industry, then I am your champion," he said.

"I make things change."

Widely known as the mastermind of Britain's decision to leave the European Union, Farage and his Reform UK party are currently popular in the polls. 

The former member of the European Parliament got his account with British bank Coutts closed in 2023. Since then, right-winger Farage has argued that crypto can solve "debanking"—again echoing comments from President Trump and his sons.

"I am the most famous case of being debanked in this country. Here is personal sovereignty—you've got your own money, you're in charge," Farage said Monday.

"The reason that I was the first prominent person in British politics to adopt crypto, to talk about crypto, to try and legitimize crypto… I could see this is the way it was going."

In May, Farage said at the Bitcoin 2025 conference that he'd slash crypto capital gains taxes and force the Bank of England to establish a Bitcoin reserve if elected.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 07:45

“Student loan debt swelled under Biden, despite historic forgiveness,” CNBC Some Factoids: Student loan debt grew during the Pandemic Former President Joe Biden forgave more student debt than any other president. However, the country’s  education debt tab still grew during his presidency. Much of this is due to interest incurred during the pandemic Outstanding federal student debt stood at […]

The post Student Loan Debt Increased under Joe Biden, despite historic forgiveness appeared first on Angry Bear.

Stocks Surge, Small Caps Erase All Losses Post-Trump As USTR Says Trump-Xi Meeting Still 'Scheduled'

Update (1145ET): US Trade Representative Lamieson Greer told CNBC that "there is a scheduled time for that,” when asked about the possibility of a Trump-Xi meeting, even as Trump has cast doubt on whether the meeting will take place because of China’s new export controls.

Greer also noted that China has now “realized they have overstepped” with its rare earths export controls that he says came “out of nowhere.”

“We’ve been pretty successful in finding a path forward with them in the past, so we think we’ll be able to work through it,” Greer says

That helped extend gains in stocks, pushing Small Caps all the way up to unchanged since President Trump's initial China 'hostile' tweet from Friday...

It appears the China rhetoric overnight has quickly been forgotten.

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Global equity futures slipped on Tuesday after China vowed to "fight to the end" in its trade war with the U.S., following President Trump's threat last week to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Despite Washington's attempts to soften its tone over the weekend, tensions are intensifying into the new week: both countries are imposing new docking fees on each other's vessels, signaling deepening Sino-US relations ahead of Trump-Xi talks. Adding to the flaring tensions, Beijing sanctioned five U.S. subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused China of deliberately undermining the global economy.

Trump's move last Friday to threaten Beijing with an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods, in response to China's sweeping new export controls on rare earths and ahead of a planned Trump-Xi meeting later this month, signals that both sides are trying to gain as much leverage as possible before the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in South Korea. 

The Chinese Commerce Ministry condemned the Trump administration's tactics, calling them incompatible with dialogue. "If you wish to fight, we shall fight to the end; if you wish to negotiate, our door remains open," a ministry spokesperson said.

"The United States cannot simultaneously seek dialogue while threatening to impose new restrictive measures. This is not the proper way to engage with China," the ministry said.

On Sunday, Trump walked back his rhetoric in a Truth Social post that said "it will all be fine", adding that the U.S. wants to "help" China. This relief sent global equities soaring on Monday, yet the outlook darkened on Tuesday after the ministry sanctioned South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha. 

China's Commerce Ministry wrote in a statement that Hanwha Ocean's five U.S. subsidiaries, Hanwha Shipping LLC, Hanwha Philly Shipyard Inc., Hanwha Ocean USA International LLC, Hanwha Shipping Holdings LLC, and HS USA Holdings Corp, are sanctioned over "assisting and supporting the U.S. government's probes and measures against Chinese maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors. China is strongly dissatisfied and resolutely opposes it." 

Earlier Tuesday, Beijing confirmed it had begun imposing additional port fees on vessels linked to the U.S., while clarifying that Chinese-built ships would be exempt from the new charges. This tit-for-tat followed the U.S. decision to impose on Chinese vessels at U.S. ports.

Also, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told the Financial Times that Beijing is trying to damage the global economy with its export controls on rare earths and critical minerals, sending some global supply chains into snarled conditions. 

"This is a sign of how weak their economy is, and they want to pull everybody else down with them," Bessent said on Monday, adding, "Maybe there is some Leninist business model where hurting your customers is a good idea, but they are the largest supplier to the world. If they want to slow down the global economy, they will be hurt the most."

Bessent added, "They are in the middle of a recession/depression, and they are trying to export their way out of it. The problem is they're exacerbating their standing in the world."

There's been a flurry of developments on the U.S.-China front. UBS analyst Joe Dickinson broke down the past 24 hours, removing the noise to explain market impacts:

EStoxx fell 20bp to start, following U.S. futures lower. Commentary from both the U.S. and China on Trade was conciliatory overnight. China's commerce ministry indicated working-level talks were held Monday, Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that Trump and Xi are still expected to meet at the APEC Summit at the end of the month.

But price action in Asia is cautious and weaker again. Nikkei cash dropped 2.8% while futures were down 1.7%. China reopens lower in the afternoon session, with CSI300 down 80bp after China's Ministry of Commerce announced curbs on five U.S. units of Hanwha Ocean in response to U.S. probes against Chinese maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries, as well as reports that China has started charging port fees for U.S. ships. Note that Samsung slid 4% post earnings.

S&P 500 futures are down a little more than 1% while Nasdaq 100 contracts fell 1.5%. 

Sea of red across global equity futures. 

Bitcoin's rebound losing momentum. 

WTI futures tumbling. 

Treasuries bid. US10Y tags 4%. 

Now we wait to see whether the Trump administration doubles-down on their tit-for-tat-ing or steadies the ship again?

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 07:26

Steve Jobs Vs Tim Cook: How The Tenures Of Both Apple CEOs Compare

From a scrappy garage startup to the world’s most valuable company, Apple’s journey is closely tied to the legacies of its two most influential CEOs: Steve Jobs and Tim Cook.

This visual, created by Made Visual Daily via Visual Capitalist, compares the two eras side by side. It highlights key milestones, product launches, and the company’s market capitalization growth.

The data comes from publicly available sources.

Under Steve Jobs, Apple’s market cap surged from $2.5 billion to $350 billion, driven by iconic releases like the iMac, iPod, iPhone, and iPad. Meanwhile, Tim Cook has overseen a staggering $3.1 trillion increase in value, with the company reaching $3.7 trillion in 2025, bolstered by services, AirPods, Apple Silicon, and even the Apple Vision Pro.

Jobs: The Product Visionary

Jobs returned to Apple in 1997 during a time of crisis. Over the next 14 years, he delivered breakthrough products that redefined industries—from the original iMac and iPod to the game-changing iPhone and iPad. These weren’t just gadgets—they reshaped how people interact with technology.

The launch of the App Store in 2008 also set the foundation for Apple’s massive software and services ecosystem, now a major profit center for the company.

Cook: The Scaler and Strategist

When Cook took over in 2011, many questioned if Apple could continue innovating. But Cook’s operational acumen allowed the company to scale globally, optimize margins, and diversify revenue streams. Under his leadership, Apple launched the Apple Watch, AirPods, Apple Pay, and custom silicon (M1 chip), while significantly expanding its services segment.

Today, Apple’s ecosystem includes hardware, services, entertainment, and finance. Cook has successfully shepherded the company into new growth areas, helping it weather challenges like supply chain crises and slowing smartphone growth.

The Longevity of Leadership, and the Question of What’s Next

Cook has now led Apple longer than Jobs. His quiet, operational style has proved durable, weathering global disruptions while continuing to expand Apple’s footprint in China, health, and AI.

But with his tenure entering its twilight, attention is turning toward succession. Some analysts point to COO Jeff Williams or SVP of Services Eddy Cue as likely candidates, while others speculate that rising stars like John Ternus or Craig Federighi could take the reins.

As Apple’s next chapter unfolds, the bar remains high: Cook took the world’s most innovative company and turned it into one of its most valuable ones. The next leader will have to chart a path for both growth and reinvention.

As noted in this 2023 CNBC profile, Cook emphasizes collaboration and expects innovation from every level of the company. Whoever takes the reins next will need to balance Apple’s culture of secrecy with a rapidly evolving tech landscape—from AI to augmented reality.

For how many years was Apple the most valuable company in the U.S. between 1995 to 2025? Find out in this nifty visualization on Voronoi.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 06:55

Russia Accuses Ukrainian Intelligence Of Using ISIS For Assassination Plot

Via The Cradle

The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) stated on Monday that its officers foiled a terrorist attack in Moscow that was planned by ISIS under the direction of Ukrainian intelligence.

ISIS operatives sought to target a high-ranking Russian Defense Ministry official using an explosive device in a densely populated area of the capital city, the agency said in a statement.

Via Associated Press

"The FSB has prevented a sabotage and terrorist act against one of the senior officers of the Russian Defense Ministry, organized by Ukrainian special services in coordination with leaders of the international terrorist organization Islamic State (banned as a terrorist organization in Russia)," the FSB statement said.

Four suspects connected to the plot were detained, including a native of a Central Asian country. The FSB alleged that the plan was developed by Ukrainian intelligence and would have been carried out by a suicide bomber recruited by an ISIS member named Saidakbar Gulomov.

“On instructions from Ukrainian handlers, S. Gulomov remotely directed the perpetrator's actions from Ukraine and several Western European countries using multiple foreign messaging applications,” the FSB added.

Gulomov allegedly provided the attacker with funds, information about the target, and materials for assembling explosive devices smuggled into Russia by Ukrainian intelligence using drones.

According to the FSB, Gulomov was also involved in the killing of Russian Lieutenant General Kirillov, commander of the Russian Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Defense Troops, in December 2024.

The FSB claims the attack on Kirillov was also orchestrated by Ukrainian intelligence. Monday's foiled terror attack “once again demonstrates the close coordination between the Kiev regime and international terrorist organizations,” the Russian intelligence service stated.

In March 2024, four gunmen attacked a concert hall near Moscow, opening fire on the more than 5,000 people gathered to watch the Russian rock group Piknik. At least 145 people were killed in the attack.  

Russian authorities blamed the ISIS affiliate in Afghanistan, ISIS-Khorasan, for the attack, while also accusing Ukrainian intelligence of orchestrating it.

“The investigation has concluded that the terrorist act was planned and organized by the security services of an unfriendly state in order to destabilize the situation in Russia,” stated the Russian Investigative Committee, which was tasked with determining who was responsible. “Members of an international terrorist organization were recruited to carry it out.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 06:30

Majority Supports Social Media Ban For Children

Australia passed a social media ban for teenagers and children under the age of 16 in December, which applies to companies including Instagram, X and TikTok. The measure is intended to reduce the “social harm” done to young Australians and is set to come into force on December 10, 2025. Tech giants will be up against fines of up to A$49.5 million ($31 million) if they do not adhere to the rules.

The new law was approved on November 28, 2024, with support from a majority of the general public. However, the blanket ban sparked backlash from several child rights groups who warn that it could cut off access to vital support, particularly for children from migrant, LGBTQIA+ and other minority backgrounds.

Critics argue it could also push children towards less regulated areas of the internet.

The new legislation is the strictest of its kind on a national level and comes as other countries grapple with how best to regulate technology in a rapidly-evolving world.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, using data from an Ipsos survey fielded in August 2025, it’s not just Australians who support a full ban of social media for children and young teens.

You will find more infographics at Statista

An average of seven in ten respondents across the 30 countries surveyed said the same.

In France, an even higher share of adults (85 percent) held the view that children under the age of 14 should not be allowed social media either inside or outside of school.

This belief was far less common in Germany (53 percent). Consensus has been growing in countries around the world, with a growing number of respondents agreeing that such bans should be put in place across almost all countries surveyed, except for in India, Thailand and Hungary, where the opposite was true.

Sentiments on smartphone use differed by generation. Where 39 percent of Gen Z said they would support a ban on smartphones in schools, the figure was far higher among older generations (69 percent of Boomers, 61 percent of Gen X and 57 percent of Millennials.)

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 05:45

Saudi Arabia's Debt Surge: Cementing Reliance On International Funding

Authored by Nick Smallwood via BondVigilantes.com,

The increasing liquidity squeeze in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s (KSA) financial system has been causing heightened levels of debate for some time.

A growing economy and the financial demands of the mega-projects that are under way are hoovering up cash faster than the domestic system can supply it. For context, recent reports suggest that the new city of NEOM could cost $8.8tn to build, which is around 25 times KSA’s annual budget.

Until recently, the Saudi business complex was able to meet its financial needs by raising money locally, generally via bank loans or by issuing sukuks into the strong domestic investor base (often private banks managing the wealth of high-net-worth individuals). However, the system has become too stretched. Credit growth has outstripped deposit growth for several years, while local investors buying financial assets must withdraw money from their bank accounts to do so, meaning that financial investments cause a reduction in banks’ deposit funding as local funding is cannibalised.

On top of that, deliberate oil production cuts and weaker oil prices have reduced oil revenues from SAR 857bn in 2022 to a projected SAR 608bn in 2025, contributing to a swing in the national budget from a surplus of 2.2% of GDP to a projected deficit of 4% over the period (using IMF numbers). The deliberate attempt to diversify away from oil therefore comes at a budgetary cost, at least for now, meaning that the country needs to attract more external funding.

If domestic liquidity is challenged, the logical step for a highly-rated country to take is to seek funding from abroad, which is precisely what has occurred. International debt issued by KSA and its large banks/corporates has surged in recent years. KSA sovereign and quasi-sovereign issuances now account for 5.1% of the most widely used EM sovereign bond index (JPM EMBI), meaning that it is now the largest issuer in that index. Its corporates now account for 4.3% of the corporate version of that index (JPM CEMBI), in which it has become the fourth-largest constituent. That represents a stunning change in its international market presence.

A glance at financial sector balance sheets shows that the need for international funding is structural – it is here to stay. Overall bank loans have grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% since 2019, with deposits growing by just 8% over the same period. In cash terms, loans have doubled from SAR 1.5tn in 2019 to SAR 3.0tn as at end-2024, while deposits have increased much less, from SAR 1.8tn to SAR 2.7tn. In 2019, therefore, the financial system had more than enough deposits to fund the economy’s credit needs; by 2024, this is patently no longer the case. In fact, the system’s loans/deposits ratio has weakened from 86% to 110% over the period. The conclusion is simple: banks are now dependent on wholesale funding if the current rate of credit growth is to be maintained.

Source: SAMA

We can see the scale of the change in issuance of international bonds, which has soared in the past few years. In 2023, KSA banks issued $2.0bn of bonds, accounting for around 6% of total issuance from the Saudi complex. In 2024, this grew to $6.8bn (14% of total), while so far this year banks have already issued $14.9bn of bonds, comprising 27.4% of all Saudi issuance. And it’s not just the banks that are issuing more debt internationally. KSA’s funding needs mean that it is issuing through every vehicle at its disposal, including cash-rich Aramco and its sovereign wealth fund (PIF). Total Saudi debt issuance ballooned from $36bn in 2023, equating to around $3bn per month, to $54bn year-to-date or around $6.4bn per month.

Source: Bloomberg

It is very clear where all this leads: the KSA complex is structurally increasing its reliance on international debt markets. Banks are taking an ever-greater share of Saudi issuance, which also seems to be a persistent trend. KSA is therefore increasingly dependent on international investment to fund its domestic priorities, while the abundance of supply and the prevalence of more price-sensitive foreign investors in its investor base means that Saudi bonds may struggle to perform for a while. We wrote previously that the technicals of the sukuk market would generally assure tight spreads and strong performance (see here). The times, they are a-changin’ – that model no longer applies.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 05:00

Another Nuclear Warning From Medvedev, This Time Over Tomahawks

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has issued a nuclear warning in the face of reports that Washington may authorize transferring US long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

President Trump's latest remarks weighing in on the issue saw him veil his intentions in usually cryptic wording. Aboard Air Force One while traveling to the Middle East earlier Monday he had said Tomahawks are a "very offensive weapon," noting, "honestly, Russia does not need that."

Via The Guardian/Shutterstock

Headlines throughout the say said he 'might' approve of sending them. These are missiles capable of hitting Moscow. This is also as last month Trump surprised observers by claiming that Ukraine could still 'win' the war and actually regain territory.

Medvedev's chilling response on Monday spelled out that this "could end badly for everyone … most of all, for Trump himself," according to a translation of his Telegram post.

"It's been said a hundred times, in a manner understandable even to the star-spangled man, that it's impossible to distinguish a nuclear Tomahawk missile from a conventional one in flight," Medvedev, who serves as the Russian Security Council Deputy Chair, further noted.

Medvedev here is alluding to Russian strategic doctrine. In a scenario where Moscow leaders believed or suspected a nuclear payload had been launched at Russia, its military would have the right to respond in kind, with nukes.

The past couple months have seen Trump and Medvedev direct threatening messages at each other, particularly related to Trump proclaiming that he had deployed a pair of nuclear submarines somewhere near Russia.

Thankfully it has all so far been confined to social media barbs, and not any clear instance of either side's strategic forces being placed on emergency alert.

But Medvedev's latest message is meant as a clear 'red line' warning to Washington - that things could rapidly and uncontrollably escalate in Ukraine if the US sends Tomahawk missiles to use against Russia.

BREAKING:

Trump:

“If this war isn’t m going to get settled, I’m going to send them (Ukraine) Tomahawks. It’s an incredible, very offensive weapon” pic.twitter.com/9kpfoJfc8u

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 12, 2025

President Zelensky has meanwhile sought to make clear he won't target anything but military sites with them, in an effort to convince Washington these long-range missiles can be deployed 'responsibly'.

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Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 04:15

Germany's Auto Summit: Spectacle Over Substance, Economy At Risk

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

Politics is the art of the possible, as Otto von Bismarck famously said. The auto summit at the Chancellery shows that, in Germany, nothing seems to work anymore. Politics refuses any gradual departure from the eco-socialist course.

Thursday was an eventful day—at least from the federal government’s perspective. No sooner had Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his deputy Lars Klingbeil given the bottomless pit of “citizens’ income” a new label than they turned to the next crisis hotspot of the republic: the collapsing automotive industry.

At the auto summit convened by the Chancellor, government members, state premiers of affected regions, business representatives, and unions gathered to discuss the future of eroding automotive production.

Dramatic Situation

The situation was clear—and dramatic. Since 2018, the German automotive sector has suffered a 25 percent production decline. In just the past twelve months, 50,000 jobs have been lost. One of the pillars of the German economy is eroding—unstoppably.

The reasons are obvious: a homegrown energy crisis due to the exit from Russian gas and nuclear power, the politically forced transformation to electric mobility, and relentless competition from China. All of this makes life hell for manufacturers.

This diagnosis applies to the entire German economy. Energy-intensive production under current regulatory and energy-policy conditions is simply no longer competitive. Around 250,000 industrial jobs have been cut since 2018—well-paid skilled workers are losing their positions—so much for the supposed skills shortage.

Logic in Exile

The obvious consequence—hundreds of thousands of jobs at risk in the coming months—would be a radical course correction: the end of the ideologically ossified Green Deal, which has turned Europe into a high-risk zone for international capital.

But what counts as “normal” in German politics or in Brussels offices anymore? As with the citizens’ income, the auto summit is less about solutions than about spectacle. Willingness to reform is faked, competence feigned—while the system that created the crisis remains untouched. Illusion over substance, show over content.

The economy’s quiet grumbling over energy costs and the electric-vehicle dead end was dispersed by Merz, Klingbeil, and co. in the usual way: a new, multibillion-euro subsidy for electric cars is supposed to bring the turnaround. An instrument that recently failed has now been resurrected, as the new special fund seems to make politics’ horizons infinite.

To appease criticism within their own ranks regarding the combustion engine ban, the Chancellor floated an extension for plug-in hybrids and range extenders. But fundamentally, the combustion engine ban remains, following the SPD line, which essentially mirrors the green hardline ideology that has driven the economy to collapse. Everything else is window dressing to make the political slogan of technological openness appear meaningful.

Media Games and Hardline Ideology

Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil of the SPD also spoke, harmoniously and in agreement with the substance. He endorsed pragmatism and flexibility—in plain terms: We recognize that automotive production in Germany may soon belong to the past. But essentially, that does not bother us, since we trust it will no longer be needed in eco-socialist Europe under Brussels anyway.

According to the Berlin bubble’s political vision, family cars and second vehicles will soon be relics. The future of mobility should be green, just not individual. It is based on a confused plan for state-operated public transport.

The few electric cars approved in the distant future are likely to be privileged status symbols, rarely owned, usually rented for short periods. Green revenge on the long-resisting German citizen.

To be clear: this auto summit called by the Chancellor was nothing but a political show. A carefully staged media event, fitting seamlessly into the PR games Merz treats as a form of politics. Consider the “Made for Germany” coffee klatsch, which faked an investment offensive, or the almost embarrassing rebranding of citizens’ income into basic security.

Regardless of the coalition constellation over recent years, the goal has always been the same: to consistently push the restructuring of the economy into an eco-socialist foundation in key sectors of industry and energy.

Predictable End

The ruling political ideology’s preferred solution—and the one that applies to all economic misdevelopments today—is predictable: new subsidies and another electric car purchase bonus. The summit ends as no one should be surprised. The long-dried subsidy channels of the green favored economy are flooded with fresh state credit. True to the stock-market motto: the tide lifts all boats.

Anyone following the bond markets closely can see that this policy is bound to end in fiscal, economic, and ultimately societal fiasco. About three years ago, secular shifts away from increasingly risky government bonds began, making financing of political grandiose dreams more difficult in the future. The end of this policy will come when the bond market finally lowers its thumb. Until then, we can look forward to the next summit.

 

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About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 03:30

Africa Is Home To 16 Of The World's 20 Fastest Growing Populations

At current rates, it will take 133 years for America’s population to double given aging demographics and low fertility rates.

By contrast, several countries in Africa and the Middle East are set to double in a quarter century. For instance, Kinshasa, in the DRC, is forecast to be among the most populous cities worldwide by 2080 given rapid population growth.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows the fastest-growing populations in the world, based on data from the United Nations.

Years for the Fastest Growing Populations to Double in Size

Below, we show countries with the fastest annual doubling rates at current projections:

As we can see, Oman and Syria are set to double their population in just 20 years.

Overall, the population of Arab states are projected to double in 36 years, supported by average fertility rates of 3.2 births per women. Yemen and Afghanistan each are set to double in size in 24 and 26 years, respectively.

In Africa, the Central African Republic and Somalia are set to reach this milestone in 21 years, making them the fastest-growing populations on the continent. Perhaps even more strikingly, the DRC, with a population of 112.8 million in 2025, could double by 2047.

Going further, the DRC is set to become the fifth-most populous country in 2100, up from 15th in 2025. Meanwhile, Nigeria is set to the fourth-largest by population after India, China, and Pakistan.

To learn more about this topic, check out this graphic on the fastest shrinking countries in the world.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 02:45