Mediocre 5Y Auction Tails As Foreign Demand Tumbles

One day after a solid 2Y auction, moments ago the Treasury conducted the second coupon sale of the week when it sold $70BN in 5Y paper in what was a mediocre affair.

Starting at the top, the auction stopped at a high yield of 3.879%, down from 4.071% in May and the lowest since last September. However, despite the intraday concession which saw yields rise across the curve into the 1pm auction, the auction tailed the When Issued 3.874% by 0.5bps, the first tail since March.

The bid to cover was also a deterioration from May, printing at 2.36, down from 2.39 and the lowest since March's 2.33; not surprisingly it was below the six-auction average of 2.39. 

The internals were also soft: foreign demand slumped to 64.7%, almost 14% lower than the 78.4% last month, and below the recent average of 70.5%. And with Directs awarded 24.4%, or double last month's 12.4%, Dealers were left with just 10.9%, up from 9.2% but one of the lowest on record. 

Overall, this was a medicore and disappointing, if quickly forgettable, 5Y auction, yet one which barely caused a blip in the second market upon the break. Attention now turns to tomorrow's 7Y sale while the big question is just how will the US fund the trillions in looming deficits that make up the Big Beautiful Bill, and when will that finally hit demand for long-term debt. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 13:22

US Meeting With Iran Next Week, Trump Says, While Suggesting Nuclear Deal Is No Longer Necessary

Do the Iranians themselves know this? President Trump says Tehran and Washington will meet next week about a potential nuclear agreement. 

"We’re going to talk to them next week, with Iran. We may sign an agreement, I don’t know. To me, I don’t think it’s that necessary. I mean, they had a war, they fought, now they’re going back to their world. I don’t care if I have an agreement or not," Trump said during a news conference at the end of Wednesday's NATO summit in The Netherlands. 

YNet News

But it appears Trump is sticking by his 'no enrichment' demand, at a moment the world doesn't really know precisely where Iran's stockpiled of enriched uranium is located. Only thing is... now there's not supposed to be any enriched uranium stockpiles in the country to speak of, after US was bombs away on it.

"The only thing would be asking for is what we were asking for before," Trump emphasized - though importantly he added that such an agreement is probably not necessary given the claim that the US successfully destroyed Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

"We want no nuclear, but we destroyed the nuclear. In other words, it’s destroyed. I said ‘Iran will not have nuclear.’ Well, we blew it up. It’s blown up to kingdom come, and so I don’t feel very strongly about it. If we got a document, it wouldn’t be bad. We’re going to meet with them," the president said.

In follow-up while addressing the NATO Q&A, Secretary of State Rubio told reporters that such a deal would depend on Iran’s willingness to negotiate directly with the US, as opposed to the intermediaries being used (such as Oman) in earlier rounds of talks.

But all of this again begs the question... was Iran's core nuclear program really destroyed? If everyone can 'agree' - at least publicly for the sake of Trump's narrative - this might mean Iran can simply continue enriching, but truly in secret this time.

According to a source familiar with the classified DIA intelligence report following the US strikes on Saturday at approximately 6 pm - 7:05 pm EDT:

The DIA report says it was based on “one day’s worth of intelligence reporting.”

“This is a preliminary phase 3 BDA (Battle…

— Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) June 25, 2025

Below on some casualty figures in Iran following what Trump dubbed the '12-day war':

At least 627 people were killed in Iran during its conflict with Israel in the period between June 13 and June 25, Iranian state media outlet IRIB reported on Wednesday, citing the country’s health ministry.

At least 4,870 other people were injured during that time, IRIB said.

The health ministry said 86% of the victims died at the scene of Israeli attacks, as cited by IRIB.

Perhaps in five to ten years the Iranians will suddenly declare achievement of an atomic bomb?

Trump seems to be saying 'move on' from the issue in the wake of last weekend's B-2 bombings of three key Iranian nuclear sites:

"Fake news CNN" -- Trump, at the NATO summit, trashes the CNN, New York Times, and MSNBC for reporting on an intelligence assessment that contradicted his claims about his Iran strikes pic.twitter.com/A6BsMsPN3q

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) June 25, 2025

It is reasonable to conclude that the Iranians have greater incentive than ever to do precisely this - weaponize what remains of their nuclear program - given they were attacked by Israel and the US (which called it 'preemptive' and 'necessary'), and their air-defenses have been largely taken out.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 13:20

Trump Admin Mulls Executive Orders Targeting Debanking

The Trump administration is reportedly preparing an executive order to block banks from denying services to politically disfavored industries—particularly crypto firms and gun manufacturers, according to CoinTelegraph and the WSJ. 

The move comes as part of a broader backlash against what critics are calling “Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” a term that refers to the alleged, informal coordination between financial regulators and banks to “debank” certain legal but politically controversial sectors.

This follows a surge of complaints from crypto entrepreneurs and tech founders, over 30 of whom were reportedly denied banking services during the Biden administration.

The issue gained national attention after the sudden collapse of three major crypto-friendly banks—Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate, and Signature—in early 2023. Their rapid downfall fueled speculation that government pressure had played a role, with crypto investor Nic Carter calling it a “coordinated effort” to dismantle the digital asset ecosystem through financial exclusion.

In response, President Trump declared at the March 2024 White House Crypto Summit that he would “end Operation Chokepoint 2.0,” vowing to restore neutral banking access regardless of politics. If enacted, the executive order would mark a major escalation in the GOP’s effort to curb what it sees as partisan interference by banks and federal regulators.

The issue has also drawn unusual bipartisan concern. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a frequent critic of Wall Street, stated in a February Senate hearing that “no one should be locked out of the financial system based on who they voted for or what they believe,” adding fuel to a rare moment of agreement across party lines.

Meanwhile, major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo have met with officials in Texas and Oklahoma to deny allegations that they’ve selectively restricted services to industries like crypto, firearms, and fossil fuels—industries increasingly caught in the political crossfire.

The report says that despite Trump’s pledge, crypto advocates warn the battle is far from over. Caitlin Long, CEO of Custodia Bank, whose firm has faced repeated debanking challenges, said in March that the industry likely won’t see meaningful relief until at least 2026.

With the Federal Reserve maintaining its current stance—and new leadership appointments not possible until early 2025—regulatory hostility could continue, even if other agencies like the OCC and FDIC shift course.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 12:40

Korybko: Five Reasons Why Iran & Israel Agreed To A Ceasefire

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Nobody saw it coming...

Iran and Israel surprised the world by agreeing to a ceasefire precisely at the point when most observers expected their war to spiral out of control.

Trump’s decision to bomb several nuclear sites in Iran and his subsequent flirtation with regime change there convinced them that he was about to escalate American involvement in the conflict regardless of whether Iran retaliated against regional US bases or Israel carried out a false flag provocation to justify this.

Here’s why they all agreed to a ceasefire instead:

1. Iran & Israel Inflicted Unacceptable Damage To One Another

The Mainstream Media hitherto claimed that Israel inflicted tremendous damage to Iran while the Alt-Media Community hitherto claimed that Iran inflicted tremendous damage to Israel, and for once, both of them were right even though they dishonestly denied each other’s claims. The reality is that Iran and Israel inflicted unacceptable damage to one another after less than two weeks of strikes. Neither was therefore able to last much longer, thus inevitably leading either to a serious escalation or a ceasefire.

2. The Trump Administration Didn’t Want Another Major Regional War

The escalation scenario was averted solely because the Trump Administration didn’t want another major regional war in West Asia, which could have accelerated the US’ hegemonic decline as well as prevented it from “Pivoting (back) to (East) Asia” for more muscularly containing China. It therefore likely told Israel that it wouldn’t have its back in that event while threatening Iran with outsized (nuclear?) retaliation if its nearby bases were attacked, thus deterring escalation from both and making a ceasefire possible.

3. Trump Unexpectedly Defied The Israel Lobby & Neoconservatives

Many observers concluded that Trump’s decision to bomb Iran signaled his complete capitulation to the Israel lobby and neoconservatives, but they couldn’t have been more wrong. Far from surrendering to their demands for another “shock and awe” regime change war, which could have involved boots on the ground and even nukes, he was somehow able to get Israel to stop bombing Iran, likely by threatening to hang it out to dry if the conflict escalated. Iran then followed suit and the ceasefire entered into effect.

4. The US Spun Its Bombing Of Iran As A Strategic Success

Opinion is mixed about whether the US’ bombing of several nuclear sites achieved its goal of destroying Iran’s nuclear program or at least pushing it back for many years, which could knock Iran out of the geopolitical game, but the US was still able to spin it as a strategic success. This gave Trump a “face-saving” exit ramp for de-escalating the conflict by speculatively pressuring Israel to stop its bombing campaign and then getting Iran to go along with it to avoid the major regional war that he feared.

5. Trump Is Totally Obsessed With Receiving The Nobel Peace Prize

And finally, Trump’s ego probably played a significant role in his decision to coerce Iran and Israel (each in different ways) into agreeing to a ceasefire since he’s totally obsessed with receiving the Nobel Peace Prize, which he hopes that he’ll be awarded as a result. Even though he played a role in sparking the conflict by letting Israel bomb Iran on day 61 of his 60-day deadline for another nuclear deal, all that could be conveniently forgotten by the committee if the ceasefire holds and leads to a lasting peace.

The ceasefire might not hold, however, in which case the US might not fully support Israel’s resumed bombing campaign if West Jerusalem is to blame.

The US might also pursue regime change in Iran via indirect means even if the ceasefire holds.

In the best-case scenario, the ceasefire might lead to a lasting peace through another nuclear deal, which would necessitate Russia’s involvement (such as removing excess nuclear fuel from Iran).

Putin would therefore deserve the Nobel Peace Prize too if that happens.

*  *  *

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 12:20

Shell In Talks To Acquire BP In Blockbuster $80 Billion Deal

It appears that after we spent years pounding the table on the sector, someone else also figured out that energy stocks are trading at single digit PEs.

The WSJ reports that European energy giant Shell is in early stage talks to acquire the other European energy giant, BP, in what would be the largest oil deal in a generation, and one of the largest merger deals of all time.

The Journal writes that while talks between company reps are active, BP is considering the approach carefully as the resulting company would be one of the biggest energy companies in the world; acquiring BP would put Shell on firmer footing to challenge larger competitors such as ZeroHedge favorite Exxon Mobil and Chevron, and would be a landmark combination of two so-called supermajor oil companies.

A Shell spokesman told the WSJ that “we are sharply focused on capturing the value in Shell through continuing to focus on performance, discipline and simplification.”

While potential terms of any deal couldn’t be learned and a tie-up is far from certain, BP is currently valued at around $80 billion, and when taking into account the usual acquisition premium, a deal could end up as the largest corporate oil deal since the $83 billion megamerger that created Exxon Mobil at the turn of the century. It would also easily be the biggest M&A deal of the year, and one of the largest deals of the century, in a market that has been rattled by President Trump’s trade war and other geopolitical tensions.

Shell is coming into the acquisition talks from a position of strength, with its stock sharply outperforming BP in recent years. Shell, which like BP is based in the U.K. but has operations around the world, has a market value of more than $200 billion. Meanhwhile, BP has been the laggard among major oil companies and a poster child for getting woke and (almost) going broke, after an ill-fated push away from fossil fuels into renewable energy, to signal just how virtuous the company is sent the stock into a tailspin. It has also suffered years of management upheaval and operational disasters.

Activist investor Elliott Investment Management, which owns more than 5% of BP’s shares, has pushed for changes at the energy company since at least February, underscoring the oil and gas producer’s exposure to a potential takeover bid from a rival. BP has since adopted several measures to try to address investor frustrations. It announced plans earlier this year to boost oil and gas production and sharply cut investments in clean energy. 

While BP has struggled, Shell has focused on its most profitable operations, pledging to pump more oil and gas and rolling back green energy targets.  When asked publicly, Shell CEO Wael Sawan has said recently that the company’s bar for big dealmaking would be high. Shell in May announced a multibillion-dollar share buyback plan, the latest in a long series of big share repurchases. Shell has been working with bankers on a potential sale of its chemicals assets in Europe and the U.S., The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

For Shell, acquiring BP would take years of integration, complicated by culture clashes and possibly the sale of overlapping assets. But a deal could give Shell’s global trading business greater reach and bolster its dominance in areas like liquefied natural gas. Analysts and investors also see a good matchup in the companies’ Gulf of Mexico operations.

Acquiring BP would also offer an opportunity for Shell to spread costs over a larger operating base and would box out rivals. Shell would also be more politically palatable to U.K. regulators who may oppose a foreign buyer from acquiring BP, a more than century-old company that traces its roots to oil exploration in Persia during the height of the British Empire.

While huge, a Shell-BP deal would be only the latest in a wave of M&A activity across the energy landscape as the producers look to achieve greater economies of scale. Chevron is still working to close its $53 billion megadeal for Hess, which has been held up due Exxon’s effort to challenge the deal’s legality.

Meanwhile, Exxon is already boosting its operational efficiency after closing a $60 billion deal to buy US shale giant Pioneer Natural Resources. Diamondback Energy sealed a $26 billion deal for Endeavor Energy Resources to bolster its position in the Permian Basin.

In response to the news, BP stock spiked 10%, erasing all losses since Liberation Day...

... while the rest of the energy sector is also trading higher.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 12:01

UBS Upgrades Uranium Prices On "Repowering The US" Theme Gaining Steam 

For the third consecutive day, extreme heat across the eastern half of the U.S. has triggered power grid alerts and emergency warnings, highlighting the fragility of current energy infrastructure. Extremely tight power grids reinforce a core part of our energy thesis: the urgent need for clean, reliable baseload power, and there is no better option than nuclear. 

The current environment strengthens our conviction as long-term 'atomic bulls', a stance we've maintained since our original call in December 2020 (read here). Nuclear energy remains the only scalable, carbon-free solution capable of delivering 24/7 generation for powering up America in the 2030s (more here).

On Wednesday, a team of UBS analysts, led by Dim Ariyasinghe, upgraded their near-term uranium price forecast by ~10% (to $72/lb for 2025) due to improved policy sentiment, bipartisan support, and tighter supply from global disruptions.

The analysts recently hosted a call with the Atlantic Council, noting that U.S. nuclear capacity could grow from approximately 100 GW to 400 GW by 2050—surpassing the Biden administration's current targets. News earlier this week of New York's plan to develop a 1GW plant provided additional tailwinds for the industry.

"We upgrade our near-term U prices ~10% on an improved US policy backdrop, which has buoyed broader market sentiment," Ariyasinghe penned in a note to clients. 

UBS maintains a long-term price forecast of $77/lb (real 2025) and $81/lb nominal from 2030.

Uranium spot prices...

Ariyasinghe's stock views within the industry:

• Paladin Energy (PDN): Maintains a BUY rating with price target lifted 3% to A$9.40/share. Restart at the Langer Heinrich mine is ahead of schedule; FY26 production revised slightly down to 4.5Mlb due to blending lower-grade ore, but this is offset by higher prices and improved costs.

• Boss Energy (BOE): Downgraded to SELL despite production success at Honeymoon mine and a 6% price target increase to A$3.50/share. UBS views the stock as overvalued after an 81% YTD rally and cites risks in long-term growth clarity, wellfield geology, and expansion capex.

Separately, long-time readers will recognize familiar ZeroHedge favorites like Cameco (CCJ) and Oklo, both of which continue to log fresh record highs week after week. We've consistently laid out the investment framework over the years—and most recently provided additional, comprehensive guides (read here & here) on how to profit as an 'atomic bull' in this unfolding nuclear era. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 11:45

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May

Brief excerpt:

The Census Bureau reported New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 623 thousand. The previous three months were revised down.
...
The next graph shows new home sales for 2024 and 2025 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). Sales in May 2025 were down 6.3% from May 2024.

New home sales, seasonally adjusted, have been down year-over-year in 4 of the last 5 months.

There is much more in the article.

A Friendly Plane Wave

By Bas van Geffen, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank

A Friendly Plane Wave

Despite some perilous first hours, the armistice between Israel and Iran seems to hold so far. In the initial hours after the ceasefire came into effect, Israel accused Iran of launching several missiles. The country launched a strike at a radar station, and vowed to respond more forcefully.

Israeli military aircraft were en route to Iran when a clearly annoyed President Trump called on both sides to stop fighting. In a social media post, he warned Israel to not drop any more bombs. The planes would just do “a friendly Plane Wave” and head home. Trump managed to de-escalate the situation for the time being, but the truce remains fragile.

Complicating matters further, the US strike on Iran’s nuclear sites reportedly did not destroy any of the core facilities. A preliminary US intelligence brief concludes that the bombing only delayed the Iranian nuclear programme by a few months. Iranian officials have meanwhile stated that their work on the programme continues. If that is true, how long will Israel and/or the US let them keep going before they strike again?

For now, though, the Trump administration is denying these media reports. The president and his advisers have called the reports based on leaked documents completely ridiculous, adding that “there is no doubt that [the facilities] were OBLITERATED.”

So, markets will remain at the whims of the parties to the conflict, and to the fragile ceasefire. But any upside risk to energy prices may be capped by reports that the Trump administration has considered a range of options in case of a major disruption to oil supply. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve may not have enough capacity to offset a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, but the reports do underscore that the US and the rest of the world will not stand for such a blockage.

And, with the ceasefire holding so far, markets have turned their focus elsewhere.

Last week’s FOMC meeting revealed that the policymakers are largely split into two camps: a group that wants zero cuts this year, and another group that believes two cuts are appropriate. Waller and Bowman are clearly in the latter group, and they feel a sense of urgency. Both indicated they are willing to cut as early as next month. But convincing the hawks will be difficult, given the recent data and lingering uncertainty.

Fed Chair Powell’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee perhaps gave markets a shimmer of hope. Powell indicated he is open to the idea that inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs could be smaller than expected. He added that if inflation is contained, the Fed can cut rates sooner than later.

However, as our US strategist noted, Powell’s key message really wasn’t that different from his recent remarks. The Fed Chair reiterated that he needs to see the results of the trade negotiations, and the final level of tariffs. At least some of these tariffs will be passed on to consumers, according to Powell. Until this is clear, the Fed Chair believes the economy is strong enough to allow the FOMC to wait and assess the inflation outlook. We therefore believe the Fed will wait until September for its first and only rate cut this year.

Indeed, in many cases, these trade negotiations do not seem to be going anywhere fruitful. Based on the trade deal with the UK, we already concluded that Trump will probably only accept a deal in which at least some of the US’ new tariffs remain in place. According to Bloomberg, European officials have now concluded the same. They expect that the US will leave some tariffs in place.

The European Commission has repeated they are not willing to accept such a deal, where the EU makes concessions only to face lower, or more limited, US tariffs. Stephane Sejourné stated that “we will need to retaliate and rebalance in some key sectors if the US insists on an asymmetrical deal.” And, according to the EU Commissioner for Industrial Strategy, that includes any deal in which the 10% universal tariff remains in place. The Commissioner for Trade noted that this may be the case: “I understand that the US is very much working with 10% as a baseline.”

This only underscores that the current relative calm is unlikely to persist, for the US would probably not leave such a retaliation unanswered.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 10:50

WTI Crude Prices Edge Higher After Across The Board Inventory Draws

Oil prices edged higher this morning after posting the biggest two-day decline since 2022, as traders assessed the Iran-Israel ceasefire and the API report overnight that pointed to another drop in US crude stockpiles.

“There is no longer any real fear of the conflict spreading,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.

“With Trump’s comments on Iranian oil exports, downward pressure on oil prices is likely to continue.”

API

• Crude -4.28mm

• Cushing -75k

• Gasoline +764k

• Distillates -1.03mm

DOE

• Crude -5.84mm

• Cushing -464k

• Gasoline -2.08mm

• Distillates -4.07mm

The official data confirmed API's reported big crude draw and products also saw major inventory drawdowns last week...

Source: Bloomberg

Total US crude stockpiles dropped to their lowest since January...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite a small 237k addition to the SPR, Crude stocks fell for the 5th straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

US crude production pushed modestly higher last week as the rig count continues to slide...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI Crude prices inched higher after the report following two days of carnage...

Source: Bloomberg

The OPEC+ alliance is due to hold discussions on July 6 to consider a further supply boost in August.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 10:43

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 623 thousand.

The previous three months were revised down.

Sales of new single-family houses in May 2025 were at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 623,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 13.7 percent below the April 2025 rate of 722,000, and is 6.3 percent below the May 2024 rate of 665,000.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

New home sales were below pre-pandemic levels.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in May to 9.8 months from 8.3 months in April.

The all-time record high was 12.2 months of supply in January 2009. The all-time record low was 3.3 months in August 2020.

This is well above the top of the normal range (about 4 to 6 months of supply is normal).

"The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May 2025 was 507,000. This is 1.4 percent above the April 2025 estimate of 500,000, and is 8.1 percent above the May 2024 estimate of 469,000.

This represents a supply of 9.8 months at the current sales rate. The months' supply is 18.1 percent above the April 2025 estimate of 8.3 months, and is 15.3 percent above the May 2024 estimate of 8.5 months. "

Sales were well below expectations of 710 thousand SAAR and sales for the three previous months were revised down. I'll have more later today.

Earlier in the article, it is said . . . Over the past decade, more than 100 rural hospitals have closed. The result of the closures being millions of Americans who live in those communities no longer have access to an emergency room, in patient care, much less doctors. This is healthcare and hospital services […]

The post Rural Hospital Closures Are Caused by Inadequate Payments from Private Health Plans appeared first on Angry Bear.

What GAO Found Spacecraft and space systems are operating in a cyber threat environment with increased risks of attack and mission disruption. To help protect systems at federal agencies such as National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Institute of Standards and Technology developed cybersecurity risk management guidelines. The guidelines include seven key risk management steps: prepare , categorize systems, select controls, implement controls, assess control implementation, authorize the system, and continuously monitor security control effectiveness. NASA fully or partially implemented all steps of its cybersecurity risk management program for selected systems. However, partial determinations indicate that NASA did not perform key activities within the steps. For example: For the prepare step, NASA did not have an approved organization-wide risk assessment. Such an assessment is essential to identifying and mitigating the highest priority cyber threats across the enterprise. Regarding the monitor step, selected systems did not document system-level continuous monitoring strategies due in large part to the lack of guidance on how to do so. Without documented strategies that are fully understood by key cyber personnel, organizations face increased risks of data breaches, delayed detection of threats, and slower responses to attacks. The following table summarizes the extent to which NASA implemented each risk management step for the four selected systems. Extent to Which National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and Selected Systems Implemented Risk Management Steps Risk management step Implementation by NASA organization Preparea ◐   Implementation across selected systems Categorize ◐ Select ◐ Implement ● Assess ◐ Authorize ◐ Monitor ◐ Legend: ●—implemented; ◐—partially implemented; ○—not implemented Source: GAO analysis of NASA documentation. | GAO-25-108138 aFor the review of the Prepare step, GAO evaluated the organizational-level activities and not the system-level activities. Developing, implementing, and maintaining a comprehensive cybersecurity risk management program is critical to protecting NASA's systems and information, detecting suspicious activity, and responding to incidents. Without a strong risk management program covering the selected systems, NASA faces increased risks that cyber incidents could result in loss of mission data, or decreased lifespan or capability of space systems. Why GAO Did This Study NASA's space development project portfolio includes 36 major projects. Over the lifecycle of these projects, NASA plans to invest about $80 billion in them. GAO was asked to review cybersecurity risk management at NASA. This report assesses the extent to which NASA implemented cybersecurity risk management for selected major projects. GAO reviewed NASA policies and guidance regarding cybersecurity risk management. GAO selected a nongeneralizable sample of two major projects and two associated systems for each project. For the four selected systems, GAO analyzed system authorization documentation and compared it to seven key cybersecurity risk management steps and associated activities. GAO also interviewed project and cybersecurity officials. This report is a public version of a sensitive report issued in March 2025. Information that NASA deemed sensitive has been omitted.

The Real Estate Recession You Haven't Heard About (Yet)

Authored by Peter Reagan,

Real estate and construction are considered bellwethers of the overall economy. Recently they’re not looking good – and this isn’t an isolated issue. It’s a warning sign of a crisis that could ripple through the entire economy…

The housing market is a massive portion (about 1/6th!) of the entire U.S. economy. About two-thirds of American families own their home – and for most, it’s their single biggest financial asset (as well as where they sleep). Home equity represents a tremendous share of household net worth – about half for the typical family! More of our national wealth is tied up in housing than any other single asset class.

So any unusual or unexpected developments in the real estate market get attention. Because they’re extremely important for the majority of Americans – far more important than abstractions like GDP or unemployment.

That makes recent updates on the state of the housing market concerning…

Housing affordability is near record lows

I don’t want to be the bearer of bad news, but it’s important that you know the truth of the situation. Today, the typical American family cannot afford a typical home. From an article at MoneyTalkNews:

As housing prices continue to climb, a startling 70% of U.S. households now find themselves unable to afford a home at the median price point of approximately $400,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.

That’s over two-thirds of U.S. households that can’t afford homes smack in the middle of the price range. We aren’t talking about McMansions here, we’re talking about what we used to call “starter homes,” much less expensive properties.

To give you a more solid grasp on those numbers:

About 94 million households simply can’t afford to purchase a median-priced home.

In fact, to afford “median-priced” homes in the U.S., the household income needs to be at least $110,000 per year. To afford a home that is less than half of the median price requires a household income of about $61,000.

Many Americans simply aren’t making that kind of money, not even on a household basis. Worse still, it takes significantly longer for a family to save up enough for a downpayment.

For comparison purposes:

• 1970-1985: The typical family could save 10% of their income for five years and accumulate a 20% downpayment

• 2023: The typical family saving 10% of their income will need eight years to collect a 20% downpayment

Note that those numbers are incredibly variable based on location (isn’t everything in real estate?) The average family cursed to live in New York City will need 19 years to save up a downpayment, where some Midwestern cities like Tulsa are much more affordable (4-5 years).

Affordability is a major challenge right now. It’s a stark reminder of how many people are struggling financially. Especially after several years of brutal inflation – and, of course, inflation’s impact on home prices.

And what happens when prices rise faster than our ability to pay? Supply starts to build up…

Homebuilders and realtors are facing recession

We know that is the case by just looking at the numbers.

• In May, builders broke ground on new homes at the slowest pace in five years

• Building permits issuance also hit a five-year low

• In June, sentiment among homebuilders dropped to the lowest level since the pandemic lockdowns!

Mike Shedlock has the statistics about how the decreased numbers of new homes that builders are starting:

• Total: -19.6% from September 2022

• Multifamily: -25.8% from August 2023

• Single Family: -24.9% from June 2022

To put that into perspective, nearly one in five homes that were being built… aren’t. Not anymore.

When families can’t afford to buy a home anymore, supply backs up. Prices fall. Profitability for the major homebuilding firms becomes a real concern.

Why did prices surge? I mentioned the pandemic-era inflation earlier – that’s a major factor. But far from the only factor:

• 7% mortgage rates are less affordable than the pre-pandemic 3% rates

• Low consumer sentiment means families are less likely to spend their money

• The global dedollarization drive means foreign investors are less likely to lend to American mortgage companies

• Tariffs could add as much as 9.3% to today’s too-high home prices

• Anecdotally, fear of ICE raids have led to deserted construction sites (according to reports, some 20-50% of the construction workforce are illegal immigrants)

According to Brown, other factors impacting the housing market are “new Trump-era factors, including tariffs and deportations, that are holding back construction and limiting supply.”

To be fair, we can’t reasonably put the blame for the whole situation at Trump’s feet, but it’s pretty clear that we’re in the transition period that Trump talked about from failing economic policies of previous administrations to the economic upturn Trump promised us.

As he also promised, the transition is far from a smooth and painless one.

Homes, wages and purchasing power

Inflation alone (that is, destruction of the dollar’s purchasing power) wouldn’t be as severe an issue if household incomes kept up. Unfortunately, they haven’t – here are the less-than-encouraging details:

For decades, home price appreciation has been outstripping earnings growth. In the last 25 years, home values have more than tripled. The steepest climb came between 2020 and 2022, when pandemic moves and ultra-low mortgage rates spurred a buying frenzy across the country.

Meanwhile, median incomes from 2000 to 2023 did not quite double.

That’s why we’re seeing such an affordability gap.

Now, I’m the first to blame the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies for economic issues like this. Unfortunately, the Fed’s current efforts to tame the inflation they created is hampering home sales, too!

In recent years, the housing market has been stalled by what’s known as the rate “lock-in effect.” Anyone lucky enough to have a sub-4% mortgage rate at a time when prevailing mortgage rates are closer to 7% is reluctant to give up that cheap rate in a move. That effect has kept for-sale inventory depressed.

It’s no wonder that home builders aren’t optimistic about the current home buying market. Between too-high prices and above-zero interest rates, homebuyers are caught between a rock and a hard place.

This is bigger than just the homebuilding sector, though. A depressed housing market is an early warning sign of a struggling economy. I’m not just speculating here, either. Remember the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-09?

More recent memory offers the Great Recession, a severe economic downturn that began with the collapse of the housing market in the United States. While not as prolonged or severe as the Great Depression, it still caused significant economic hardship, with unemployment rates reaching nearly 10%.

We watch the housing market for exactly this reason. It’s our canary in the coalmine of the American economy.

What we can do when the canary stops singing

Sure, it’s easy to fall into doom and gloom thinking when you see numbers like this. Some of my friends think I’m obsessed with bad news… But I’m really not. I do my best to point out the important economic stories you might not see on mainstream media, and to show you how and why these stories matter.

I encourage you to remember one thing: While we cannot make major changes to our nation’s economy, we can take control of our own personal economies.

Successful people have talked about this idea for years! Focus your attention on what you can change rather than worrying about what you can’t.

An imminent housing-led slide into recession may or may not be in the cards for us. If your savings are well diversified (especially if you’re a homeowner!), your overall financial stability can endure regardless of the booms and busts of the broad economy. One of the best choices for that kind of diversification, in my opinion, is physical precious metals. Like real estate, gold and silver are one of the few financial assets you can own outright!

*  *  *

As central banks continue unprecedented money creation, protecting your purchasing power becomes critical for retirement security. Physical gold IRAs offer a tax-advantaged solution, allowing you to hold tangible precious metals with intrinsic value independent of currency fluctuations. To learn more about how physical gold could help protect your retirement portfolio, click here to get your FREE info kit on Gold IRAs from Birch Gold Group.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 07:20

Why This Matters Medicaid’s Early and Periodic Screening, Diagnostic, and Treatment requirements provide a range of preventive and medically necessary health care services to eligible children. Services include well-child screenings to identify potential medical issues, and treatment to improve or maintain the child’s health. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) oversees states’ provision of Medicaid. GAO Key Takeaways State Medicaid programs often contract with managed care plans to deliver health care services, including well-child screenings and treatment. In fiscal year 2022, the most recent data available, about 85 percent of the 33 million children covered by Medicaid were enrolled in managed care plans. Three states we reviewed had programs that withheld a small portion of managed care plans’ funding. The funding was then used to reward plans that improved performance on well-child screening and treatment quality measures. Medicaid officials in Ohio and Washington said their programs were effective tools to encourage plans to improve performance, such as the extent to which eligible children receive well-child screenings. Results from North Carolina are not yet available, but officials said they may add more quality measures. Selected managed care plans developed incentives for children, their caregivers, and providers to improve the extent to which children receive screenings and treatment. For example, Rhode Island offered children a teddy bear for completing a blood lead screening. Some plans offered providers support with coordinating care. Also, some plans increased payment rates for certain services to encourage improved access to screenings, including behavioral health screenings. Example of a Medicaid Periodic Well-Child Screening and Identification for Treatment How GAO Did This Study We reviewed documentation and interviewed Medicaid officials from a non-generalizable sample of four states with large child Medicaid managed care populations. We also reviewed CMS guidance, and interviewed CMS, two managed care plans per state, and seven stakeholder organizations, including those representing children. For more information, contact Michelle B. Rosenberg at rosenbergm@gao.gov.

What GAO Found The U.S. Coast Guard faces increasing challenges operating and maintaining its fleet of 241 cutters—vessels 65 feet or greater in length with accommodations for crew to live on board. Since fiscal year 2019, the cutter fleet's availability to conduct missions generally declined due, in part, to increasing equipment failures. Across the cutter fleet, the number of instances of serious cutter maintenance issues increased by 21 percent from 3,134 in fiscal year 2018 to 3,782 in fiscal year 2023. As a result, more cutters are operating in a degraded state and at an increased risk of further maintenance issues. Coast Guard Cutter Penobscot Bay at a Major Repair Facility in Baltimore, Maryland Two maintenance challenges that are particularly impactful are increasing deferred maintenance and delays in obtaining obsolete parts. In fiscal year 2024, the Coast Guard deferred $179 million in cutter maintenance, almost nine times the amount deferred in 2019 (based on inflation-adjusted values). Due to delays in receiving critical parts needed for repairs, the Coast Guard cannibalizes cutters by moving working parts between cutters. The Coast Guard lacks complete information to address the impacts of these challenges. Systematically collecting data on, and assessing, deferred maintenance and parts obsolescence could enable the Coast Guard to better prioritize projects and funding. The Coast Guard has not fully addressed the impacts of personnel shortages that are a major challenge to operating and maintaining the cutter fleet. Cutter crew and support positions are short staffed, with vacancy rates increasing from about 5 percent in fiscal year 2017 to about 13 percent in fiscal year 2024. Cutter personnel workload has increased to meet mission demands and cutters often deploy without a full crew, which the Coast Guard does not account for in its staffing data. Regularly collecting and assessing data on staff availability could help ensure the Coast Guard is fully considering the workload faced by cutter crews and support personnel when making decisions on personnel assignments. Why GAO Did This Study The Coast Guard, a multi-mission military service within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), is responsible for ensuring the safety, security, and stewardship of more than 100,000 miles of U.S. coastline and inland waterways. It relies heavily on its cutter fleet to meet these mission demands. In 2012, GAO reported that the Coast Guard's legacy cutters were approaching, or had exceeded, their expected service lives and that their physical condition was generally poor. GAO was asked to review how the cutter fleet has changed since 2012. This report examines, among other things, the Coast Guard's (1) challenges in operating and maintaining its cutter fleet, and (2) the extent it has determined its cutter-related workforce needs. GAO analyzed available Coast Guard documentation and data for the period 2012-2024 on types of cutters, cutter availability, and cutter usage time. GAO also conducted site visits to observe facility operations and interviewed Coast Guard officials, including maintenance officials and cutter crews representing a mix of cutter types and geographic locations.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications increased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 20, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the Juneteenth holiday.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.1 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 10 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 3 percent from the previous week and was 29 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 0.4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 11 percent compared with the previous week and was 12 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“The combination of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, current economic conditions, and last week’s FOMC meeting resulted in slightly lower Treasury rates on average. However, mortgage rates still edged higher but remained in the same narrow range, with the 30-year fixed rate increasing to 6.88 percent last week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Applications increased slightly overall driven by FHA refinances, but conventional applications saw declines over the week. The average loan size for purchase applications declined to $436,300, the lowest level since January 2025, driven by decreasing conventional purchase loan sizes.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.88 percent from 6.84 percent, with points decreasing to 0.63 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 12% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and is 9% above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index increased but remained very low.

Some history on judge appointments and what about the present with criminal defense lawyer, Emil Bove? A friend of Trump? Packing the Courts, Civil Discourse The date was February 5, 1937. President Franklin Delano Roosevelt had just been reelected in a landslide, taking the Electoral College by a vote of 523 to 8 and winning the largest popular […]

The post The Courts appeared first on Angry Bear.

New York Power Grid Stabilizes After Rare Energy Warning 

New York's power grid stabilized late Tuesday after the grid operator issued a rare energy warning earlier in the day, as residential and commercial customers cranked up their air conditioning, driving power demand higher amid temperatures nearing 100°F across parts of the state. The warning came amid widespread grid instability across the eastern half of the U.S...

• "Maximum Generation Alert" Issued for Nation's Largest Power Grid

• Power Blackout Hits Parts Of Queens, NYC: Con Edison Urges Energy Conservation As Temps Spike

• DoE Declares U.S. Southeast Grid Emergency To Avert "Blackouts"

• "You're Welcome": Pennsylvania Boasts About Saving 'Green' Maryland From Near Power Grid Collapse

On Tuesday, New York's Central Park hit 99°F, nearing its all-time June high of 101°F. The extreme heat sent demand on the already fragile grid soaring, pushing power prices to over $7,300/MWh on Long Island and nearly $3,000/MWh in New York City.

The New York Independent System Operator, which manages the state's power grid, stabilized the grid by late Tuesday after issuing a rare energy alert earlier in the day, warning of potential rotating outages. 

An Energy Warning for June 24 has been issued due to a decline in operating reserves. The grid is operating normally at this time but emergency operations may be initiated to maintain system reliability. Visit https://t.co/UL7zM41k5P for additional information. pic.twitter.com/kplRsvqxtG

— New York ISO (@NewYorkISO) June 24, 2025

To the north, New England's grid entered a Level 1 emergency late evening after unexpected generation losses that "left the region short of the resources needed to meet both consumer demand and required operating reserves," according to the local grid operator. 

PJM Interconnection, the operator of the largest U.S. power grid serving 65 million people across 13 states and D.C., extended its energy emergency alert into Wednesday. 

NY Gov. Kathy Hochul released a statement urging New Yorkers to conserve electricity during peak demand hours due to extreme heat:

"Since the beginning of this week's extreme heat, we've been carefully monitoring our electrical grid to protect New Yorkers. Earlier this evening the New York Independent System Operator warned that we are approaching peak capacity in the downstate region and it is critical to conserve electricity between now and 10 p.m. That means setting window air conditioning units to 76 degrees and avoiding unnecessary appliance use.

"At the same time, it's critical to stay safe in this dangerous heat: find a cooling center near you, especially if you're a senior citizen or have health concerns. Working together, we can easily get through this critical period." 

So much for the green policies that prematurely retired reliable fossil fuel power for unreliable climate tech; the result is clear: Power grids across the eastern half of the U.S. are stretched thin.

It's time to bring back common-sense energy policy—restoring stable generation to bridge the gap until nuclear capacity meaningfully ramps up in the early 2030s. It's also time to hold the woke climate politicians accountable for their massive mismanagement of the nation's grid.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 06:55

Former CFO Of Nigeria's State Oil Firm Arrested Over Alleged $7 Billion Fraud

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

Nigeria’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission has arrested two ex-oil officials, including the former chief financial officer of Nigeria’s state energy firm NNPC, over an alleged $7.2-billion fraud, corruption, and abuse of office.

The financial crimes authorities have arrested Umar Ajiya Isa, a former CFO at NNPC, as well as Jimoh Olasunkanmi, a former managing director of the Warri refinery in Nigeria. Three other officials are being investigated, according to a statement from the commission carried by Bloomberg.

The two former executives are under investigation for alleged corruption, embezzlement, abuse of office, and kickbacks from contractors.

Isa was arrested over alleged fraud for the revamp and rehabilitation of Nigeria’s old oil refineries, Kaduna, Warri, and Port Harcourt, Nigerian outlet Premium Times reports.

Despite annual allocations of funds for the refineries’ rehabilitation, they haven’t been producing fuel in recent years.

The latest arrests and investigations come as Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu and his administration are working to eradicate corruption in the oil industry and boost the country’s oil production.

The top African oil-producing country has consistently failed to pump to its OPEC+ quota due to oil theft, vandalism, and struggles to launch new projects.

Nigerian authorities have been clamping down on oil theft and have been supportive of an increase in oil and gas output in recent months.

Nigeria’s government last month urged the oil companies operating in the country to collaborate to increase oil output in the producer that hasn’t been able to pump to its OPEC quota for years.

Meanwhile, the private Dangote refinery in Nigeria, Africa’s largest crude processing facility, is ramping up production of fuels and is set to ship its first gasoline cargo out of the African region with a vessel heading for Asia.

The refinery, which began operations last year, has so far exported gasoline only to the West African region.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 06:30

How Tariffs Might Impact US Car Prices, By Brand

Tariffs on imported goods can have a wide ripple effect on prices, especially in the auto industry where supply chains are global, complex, and highly sensitive to cost changes.

In this graphic, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu reveals how tariffs will impact U.S. car prices, assuming a flat 25% tariff is applied onto vehicles imported from outside North America.

Data & Discussion

The data for this visualization comes from Insurify, which projected price increases for various car brands based on their exposure to overseas manufacturing and parts.

For models assembled within North America, the projections represent a 25% tariff on a model’s non-U.S. content and up to a 15% tariff discount of the total MSRP. Visit the official White House fact sheet to learn more.

The analysis shows that Tesla, Jeep, and Honda will be the least affected by Trump’s auto tariffs, while Buick, Hyundai, and Kia will face the steepest price hikes.

Buick’s Asia-Centric Production

Although Buick is an American brand, the company produces many of its models in China and South Korea. As a result, Buick tops this list with a 22% projected price increase—the highest among all brands surveyed.

This underscores how globalization has changed the footprint of even legacy U.S. nameplates. In fact, Buick is so big in China it has its own sub-brand.

Hyundai and Kia Face High Tariff Risks

Other vulnerable brands are Hyundai and Kia, each projected to see a 21–22% increase in vehicle prices. Though both brands have some manufacturing presence in the U.S., a significant portion of their models and components are still imported from South Korea.

In late 2024, Hyundai Motor Group Metaplant America opened in Georgia, which the company will use to build its U.S.-sold electric vehicles. The plant is capable of producing up to 500,000 vehicles per year.

Tesla Is the Least Affected

Tesla’s vertically integrated supply chain and domestic manufacturing help shield it from tariff risks. With most of its production based in the U.S.—particularly at its Fremont and Austin plants—Tesla’s vehicles are projected to increase in price by only 3% under new tariff rules.

This minimal impact could give Tesla a competitive edge if other brands are forced to raise prices. Fortune recently reported that Tesla is still America’s EV leader, though sales dropped year-over-year in April by 16%.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out The Best Selling Vehicle in Every State in 2024 on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Wed, 06/25/2025 - 05:45