Feed aggregator

In An Extremely Fragile Market, How To Gain An Edge When Volatility Spikes

Zero Hedge -

In An Extremely Fragile Market, How To Gain An Edge When Volatility Spikes

Friday’s sharp selloff dropped the S&P 500 more than 2.7% as we experienced one of the largest single-day declines of the quarter, as headlines spooked traders.

What made the drop especially remarkable is that it took place in an extremely complacent context, with realized vol at the lowest level in years. 

So, traders are asking, what’s next? 

The next major move can come this Friday with the October Options Expiration: See if the Market May Flip  

OPEX occurs on the third Friday of every month, when monthly options contracts expire for both major indices, ETFs, and single stocks. This expiration date acts as a “reset date” for markets, often causing volatility to spike or collapse.

And whether you know it or not: you are trading volatility, and you need to see how volatility shifts can drastically affect your PnL.

In conjunction with our partners at SpotGamma, we are offering free access to webinar on Wed, October 15th at 1pm ET, where SpotGamma Founder, Brent Kochuba, will unpack what’s happening in the options market and how it can drive your PnL.

Free Webinar:  Limited Seats Available

How to Track Volatility: The Hidden Force Behind Options Pricing

Whether we expect more chaos or calmer markets, options pricing can change dramatically based on trader sentiment — and these shifts don’t happen in plain view. You need a tool that will track IV for you and show you how your PnL changes as news rocks the markets. 

SpotGamma’s new Options Calculator lets you model new positions, track shifting volatility, and improve your trade setups for any environment featuring real-time pricing.

This new tool goes beyond what’s happening now — if you want to model a calmer period with reduced volatility, you can visualize how your PnL would shift:

In this example, the yellow line in the image above represents the previous PnL, while the green and red section shows what the return profile looks like in a calmer market.

Using the SpotGamma Options Calculator, you can see how setups like this put fly might appeal to traders betting that Friday’s panic fades and that volatility mean-reverts.

The Takeaway: Hidden Forces Impact Every Trade

Last Friday’s move reminded every options trader of one truth: If you are trading options, you are trading volatility. OPEX establishes a date each month to watch, so you can capitalize on shifts in volatility as options contracts expire and positioning resets.

That’s exactly what readers will explore during the OPEX webinar, a live session unveiling how you can use SpotGamma’s new options calculator to measure the impact of volatility on your trades. Sign up now and you’ll also get first access to five new SpotGamma tools built to help you discover the impact of the options market on your trades.

Save my spot

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/15/2025 - 09:35

BlackRock, Nvidia, xAI, Microsoft Form Investment Consortium In $40 Billion Data Center Takeover 

Zero Hedge -

BlackRock, Nvidia, xAI, Microsoft Form Investment Consortium In $40 Billion Data Center Takeover 

ZeroHedge Pro Subs are already well-familiarized with the "infinite money" circle-jerk deals powering the AI bubble - from endless chip announcements to vendor financing schemes to a wave of mega-data-center buildouts sweeping the nation. We've detailed the mechanics behind this boom and shared the latest Bank of America Fund Managers Survey to cut through the hype and capture what institutional desks are really saying about AI.

The headlines keep coming. The latest dropped on Wednesday morning: a new investment consortium has been revealed, featuring BlackRock, Nvidia, xAI, and Microsoft, and is reportedly buying one of the world's largest data-center operators. 

Financial Times reports the investment consortium is purchasing Aligned Data Centers from Macquarie Asset Management for $40 billion. This deal marks the first major one under $100 billion pool of funds called "AI Infrastructure Partnership." 

The partnership also includes Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), Abu Dhabi's MGX, Temasek, and the Kuwait Investment Authority and aims to underwrite and expand the infrastructure behind the boom. It combines investor heavyweights with top tech firms that fast-track land, energy, materials, and chips. This collaboration drastically reduces build times for clients like OpenAI, Google, and Meta, while also ensuring America leads the AI race against foreign adversaries, such as China. 

Here's more from FT's report:

The investment group has earmarked $30bn in equity and a further $70bn in debt financing to buy and build data centre companies. Its planned takeover of Aligned Data Centers is the first in what could be a series of large acquisitions and construction projects in the sector.

The consortium plans to expand Aligned quickly in the coming years, more than doubling its 50 data centre campuses in the U.S. and Latin America.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told the FT that the AI Infrastructure Partnership allows tech giants to lease rather than own their hyperscale facilities, keeping data centers off their balance sheets, which only supports higher valuations. He added that institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds are also financing these projects.

"Together, we can address critical questions: how to design the right data centres, how to solve water and energy challenges, and how to respond to customers' needs. That's what's unique about the partnership - it hasn't been replicated anywhere else," Adebayo Ogunlesi, co-founder of GIP, told FT in an interview. 

Ahmed Yahia Al Idrissi, chief executive of MGX, noted, "We very much believe that the requirements for global capacity buildout - both from a cloud and AI perspective - are massive. We're talking about roughly 20 gigawatts a year globally, and about half of that would be in the U.S." 

There are two competing narratives about the AI investment cycle: one camp calls it a "bubble," while the other insists it's just beginning innings. The AI Infrastructure Partnership members, and separately, firms like Blue Owl, clearly believe this cycle has years of momentum left. Meanwhile, the latest Bank of America Fund Managers Survey (read here) shows institutional investors naming an "AI bubble" as the biggest tail risk in markets.

Which narrative prevails remains the trillion-dollar question, though we suspect the Trump administration will do everything possible to ensure this AI investment cycle continues well into his second term.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/15/2025 - 09:20

Futures Rise After Strong Earnings Ease Trade War Fears

Zero Hedge -

Futures Rise After Strong Earnings Ease Trade War Fears

US equity futures are again higher due a combination of softening trade rhetoric, a dovish Powell who reassured markets that another rate cut was coming, and solid results from BofA and Morgan Stanley. While cooking oil has become the latest flashpoint between the US and China, there are enough positive themes to offset trade-war worries for now. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 futures were 0.8% higher with Nasdaq 100 contacts +1.0%. Pre-mkt, Mag7 and Semis are looking to rebound from yesterday’s losses where Equal-weighted indices outperformed Mkt-weighted indices by 90-100bp. Cyclicals are poised to see outperformance with Banks, Industrials (esp. AI plays), and Materials leading the factor higher. In Europe, ASML gave another boost to the AI story after orders for its chip-making machines beat expectations. Bond yields are lower and the USD is weaker. In commodities, crude is up but other Energy products are lower; precious metals are higher with gold rising to a new record high above $4200 while base are lower. Ags are lower ex-coffee. The data drought continues: today's CPI report has been pushed to Oct 24, so we only get the Empire Manufacturing print at 8:30am. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are among companies due to report today; the BKX has fallen 7.5% over the last 3 weeks, albeit from ATHs, and now is ~4% below that level. 

In premarket trarding, MAg 7 stocks are all higher (Nvidia +2%, Tesla +1.2%, Amazon +0.7%, Meta +0.6%, Alphabet +0.1%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple +0.5%).

  • Bank of America (BAC) rises 4% after third-quarter earnings beat estimates as investment-banking activity increased amid a long-awaited comeback in M&A.
  • Bunge Global SA (BG) rises 5% after recasting its outlook.
  • Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) climbs 6% after the US discount retailer projected earnings per share to gain as much as 10% annually over the next three years.
  • Grindr (GRND) gains 5% after the company said its largest shareholders are exploring an acquisition that would take the company private at no less than $15 a share, confirming an earlier media report.
  • Papa John’s (PZZA) shares jump 12% as Reuters reports Apollo Global Management submitted a bid within the last week to take the pizza chain operator private at $64 per share.
  • Sable Offshore (SOC) falls 26% after the Santa Barbara Superior Court issued a tentative ruling indicating that it will deny the firm’s claims against the Coastal Commission for issuing cease and desist orders during Sable’s repair program on the Las Flores pipeline.

In corporate news, Apple is preparing to expand its manufacturing operations in Vietnam as part of a push into the smart home market and in an effort to lessen dependence on China. Data center developer Nscale agreed to build a site for Microsoft in Texas which will deploy around 104,000 of the latest Nvidia chips. Stellantis vowed to invest $13 billion in the US over the next four years as it seeks to reinvigorate its business in the critical market and mitigate tariff costs.

While the stocks meltup is back, there are mixed signals coming from the derivatives markets, with some pointing to a spike in near-term pricing as a signal froth had been blown out of the market. For others, the inverted VIX curve is a precursor of more pain for stock traders.

Citi’s chief global macro strategist says markets aren’t adequately pricing in risks of the latest round of trade tensions. Meanwhile, systematic investors have been maximum long, but with short-term trend dynamics being tested and volatility spiking, selling exposure is the clear next step. Goldman’s Cullen Morgan expects CTAs to be sellers under every scenario, potentially offloading as much as $232 billion across global stocks should a down market take hold over the next month.

On the monetary policy front, Powell, as well as Boston Fed’s Collins, suggested scope for further cuts this year in commentary on Tuesday. And Evercore founder Roger Altman said he doesn’t see inflation as a threatening factor amid solid economic growth.

Turning to earnings, while it’s still very early in the season, but of the 24 companies in the S&P that have reported so far, 71% have topped estimates. In Europe, ASML gave another boost to the AI story after orders for its chip-making machines beat expectations. 

“We’re going into this earnings season with the view that it probably will validate that the corporate sector is still in relatively good shape,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann told Bloomberg TV. “There’s a lot of uncertainty on politics and geopolitics, as always, and you want to be careful about making too many shifts in your portfolio.”

Markets will hear from the Fed’s Christopher Waller, Jeff Schmid and Stephen Miran later today after Chair Jerome Powell reiterated concerns about labor-market weakness on Tuesday and signaled the central bank may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the coming months. Strategists warn that trade headlines will remain in focus as Washington and Beijing lay the groundwork for negotiations.

Meanwhile, trade tensions “continue to simmer in the background, of course,” said UniCredit equity strategist Christian Stocker. “But the news that we can now be certain, or almost certain, that the Fed will cut interest rates in October has already had a positive impact.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.7% as investors welcomed better-than-expected earnings from LVMH and ASML as well as a reduction in French political uncertainty. Consumer products and media shares are leading gains, while healthcare and financial services shares are the biggest laggards. The CAC 40 outperforms its regional peers with a 2.7% gain.  Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

  • LVMH shares rise as much as 14%, the most since February 2009, after the luxury group reported an unexpected return to sales growth in the third quarter
  • ASML shares rise as much as 3.8% after the chip equipment maker reported the highest bookings for its cutting-edge EUV tools since 4Q23, showing a boost from a rapid increase in AI investments
  • TotalEnergies shares rise as much as 3.2%, the most since June, after the French energy company published a trading statement that showed improving refining margins
  • Bouygues and Orange jump after the pair — along with Iliad — offered to buy SFR from billionaire Patrick Drahi’s Altice France in a €17 billion deal that would reduce the French telecom market to three operators from four
  • Nibe gains as much as 4.8%, the most in two weeks, after Pareto Securities upgraded its view on the Swedish heat-pump company to buy from hold, noting heat pump sales are continuing to grow organically at 8% in 3Q thanks to a recovery in the Nordics and Europe
  • Pets at Home shares climb as much as 4.9% while peer CVS Group soars as much as 18% after the UK Competition & Markets Authority outlined its plan to reform the veterinary services market
  • Pagegroup shares rise as much as 5.9%, the most since April, after the recruitment company posted a milder drop in gross profit in the third quarter compared to what was seen in the first half
  • Aurubis shares slid as much as 7.8%, its biggest drop since April, to €106.70 after shareholder Salzgitter placed €500 million of bonds exchangeable into the copper smelting company’s shares
  • Renk Group shares plunge as much as 5.9% after the propulsion and drive-train technology company was downgraded at Citi, with analysts arguing the shares are too expensive following a rally in defense names
  • Strabag shares slid as much as 11% to €73.50 in Vienna on Wednesday, after the Haselsteiner family sold 2.5 million shares in the construction company at a discount
  • Rathbones Group shares decline as much as 3.7%, the most since May, as outflows continued for the investment management firm in 3Q

Shares of Europe's chip giant ASML are up 4% in pre-mkt after reporting strong order intake and above consensus 4Q25 guide. ASML's 3Q25 revenue was below cons but EBIT of c.€2.5bn was 2% ahead. Bookings figure in 3Q was €5.4bn, broadly flat qoq from a strong 2Q25 order intake of €5.5bn and in-line with cons of c.€5.4bn including €3.6bn of EUV orders which came in materially above cons at €2.2bn. ASML highlighted that it does not expect 2026 total net sales to be below 2025 and anticipates 4Q25 stronger than 3Q25 and in line with historical seasonality.

Earlier in the session, a sense of relief rippled through Asian stock markets on Wednesday, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s rate cut signals gave some good news to investors once again confronting the risk of a trade war. A regional gauge of shares gained 2%, rebounding from its three-day slide. South Korea’s Kospi Index was the stand-out performer, jumping 2.7% on buying from local funds. Stocks in mainland China, Hong Kong and Japan also advanced. The reversal in sentiment was largely prompted by Powell’s comments on Tuesday, which reinforced expectations of an interest-rate cut later this month. That gave investors a reason to look past escalating trade tensions between China and the US, after President Donald Trump threatened to halt trade in cooking oil with China in response to the country’s refusal to buy US soybeans. “While the rhetorical tit-for-tat between the US and China remains a main concern for market participants, Powell’s signals on the Fed’s rate cut and end of quantitative tightening are providing a meaningful relief this morning,” said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier Singapore. Attention will now turn to the first three-way meeting among Japan’s main opposition parties since the collapse of the ruling coalition. The discussion, taking place after Japan’s market close on Wednesday, will focus on whether the three parties can close policy gaps and pick a candidate of their own for the nation’s premiership. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.3%. The Aussie dollar and Norwegian krone are leading gains against the greenback, rising 0.5% each. Asian currencies bounced back against the dollar following losses this week. The Bloomberg Asia Dollar Spot index rose 0.4%, its best performance in more than a month. 

In rates, treasuries climb, pushing US 10-year borrowing costs down 2 bps to 4.01% amid small, curve-flattening gains in early US trading with long-end yields richer by around 2bp on the day. Treasury yields are 1bp-2bp richer across the curve with 2s10s and 5s30s spreads about 1.5bp flatter; Bunds and gilts in the sector are outperforming by 1bp and 3bp. Gilts provide support, outperforming after Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey flagged a weaker jobs market and heading for their biggest four-day gain since April. Three Fed officials are slated to speak.  

In commodities, spot gold rises $50 having notched another record earlier today. Silver is up over 2%. 

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the Fed’s Miran, Waller and Schmid, the ECB’s de Guindos, Rehn and Villeroy, and the BoE’s Ramsden and Breeden. We’ll also get the Fed’s Beige Book, and the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey. Finally, earnings releases include Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.5%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +0.7%
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.9%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.7%
  • DAX +0.2%
  • CAC 40 +2.6%
  • 10-year Treasury yield -2 basis points at 4.01%
  • VIX -1.1 points at 19.71
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1211.78
  • euro +0.2% at $1.163
  • WTI crude little changed at $58.68/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • A menu of options is starting to emerge around what a compromise might look like for extending a suite of Affordable Care Act tax credits, which have become a focal point in the current government funding standoff. Behind the scenes, however, Republicans on Capitol Hill and inside the Trump administration are discussing potential pathways to prevent the tax credits from expiring at the end of the year. Politico
  • The Fed’s Beige Book gains importance as delayed jobs data leaves policymakers relying on other indicators to assess September’s labor market. BBG
  • In its trade standoff with Washington, Beijing thinks it has found America’s Achilles’ heel: President Trump’s fixation on the stock market. Xi Jinping is betting that the U.S. economy can’t absorb a prolonged trade conflict with the world’s second-largest economy, according to people close to Beijing’s decision-making. WSJ
  • China’s downward price pressures eased slightly in September, but not quite as much as expected, as Beijing ramps up efforts to curb excess capacity and bolster domestic demand. China’s inflation numbers for Aug are largely inline, w/the PPI at -2.3% (vs. the Street -2.3% and vs. -2.9% in Aug) and the CPI at -0.3% (vs. the Street -0.2% and vs. -0.4% in Aug). WSJ
  • Japan’s legislature will hold an extraordinary session on Oct 21, although it’s not clear when exactly a vote to elect the next PM will take place. Nikkei 
  • Japan’s opposition leaders are to meet today to discuss uniting behind Yuichiro Tamaki as a PM candidate to challenge the LDP’s Sanae Takaichi.
  • Rachel Reeves has told Sky News she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, in her first interview since being briefed on the scale of the fiscal black hole she faces. Budget is set to be published on Nov 26. Sky News
  • The ECB’s Gabriel Makhlouf said he’s more worried that inflation will come in above the 2% target than below it. Interest rates are probably in a “fine position.” BBG
  • ASML shares gained (+~415 bps) after orders crushed estimates, fueled by investment in AI infrastructure. It expects sales next year to be not below those of 2025. China was ASML’s biggest market last quarter, accounting for 42% of sales. BBG

Trade/Tariffs

  • Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Lin says the US and China should engage in talks.
  • China files complaint to WTO over India's EV and battery subsidies; vows resolute measures to protect domestic industry, says Indian measures hurt China's interests.

A more detailed look at overnight markets courtesy of Newsquawk

A regional gauge of shares gained 2%, rebounding from its three-day slide. South Korea’s Kospi Index was the stand-out performer, jumping 2.7% on buying from local funds. Stocks in mainland China, Hong Kong and Japan also advanced. Asian currencies bounced back against the dollar following losses this week. The Bloomberg Asia Dollar Spot index rose 0.4%, its best performance in more than a month.

Top Asian News

  • Japan Parliamentary Committee failed to agree on holding an election to choose the next PM on October 21st.
  • Japan's DPP Leader Tamaki suggested another party leader's meeting on Monday if things can be sorted; still some distance with the CDP. Understood that LDP leader Takaichi is proposing to form coalition with DPP.
  • RBA Assistant Governor Hunter said recent data has been a little stronger than expected and inflation is likely to be stronger than forecast in Q3, while she added the labour market and economic conditions might be tighter than assumed. Furthermore, she stated that employment growth has slowed by more than expected and uncertainty about the global outlook remains elevated, as well as noted that the Board will adjust policy as appropriate as new information comes to hand.
  • RBNZ Chief Economist Conway said they do not expect to use additional monetary policy (AMP) tools again anytime soon, while he added they will continue to update their approach to remain as prepared as possible to help New Zealand weather whatever economic storms come their way. Conway also announced that the RBNZ reviewed the frequency of its monetary policy decision announcements and acknowledged the perception that the gap between the November MPS and February MPS is too long, while they are to reduce that gap over the 2026/2027 period.
  • S&P affirms New Zealand at AA+ foreign currency rating.
  • China's state planner issues action plan for developing EV charging infrastructure; aiming to establish 28mln charging facilities nationwide by end-2027.
  • RBI sees rupee under speculative attack and will intervene further, according to Bloomberg.

European equities opened higher, buoyed by strong updates from ASML and LVMH, with the CAC 40 (+2.4%) leading gains after LVMH (+13.4%) beat Q3 revenue forecasts and political stability improved in France. Most European sectors trade in the green, led by Consumer Products & Services (+5.9%) on strong luxury brand performance (LVMH, Kering, Hermes), while Healthcare (-0.3%) lags due to cyclical rotation; Media (+1.7%) and Technology (+1.6%) also firm, with ASML’s results and resilient Chinese demand underpinning sentiment.

Top European News

  • UK Chancellor Reeves says she is looking at both tax rises and spending cuts in the budget, via Sky News. When asked if the economy is in a "doom loop", says, "Nobody wants that cycle to end more than I do".
  • French Socialist Party (PS) Faure says the Zucman tax will be reintroduced.

FX

  • After starting the week on the front foot, DXY was knocked lower yesterday by a combination of a pick-up in the EUR, US-China trade tensions and dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell. On the latter, the key takeaway was the ongoing acknowledgement of the softness in the labour market by the Fed Chair. Something which could be aggravated by the ongoing US shutdown and expectations of mass federal layoffs. One potential source will be today's Fed Beige Book, which will provide anecdotal evidence on the performance of the US economy. ING argues that the Beige Book played a key role in the Fed’s 50bp cut in September 2024. Elsewhere, NY Fed Manufacturing and Cleveland CPI are due on deck, with the latter coming ahead of next week's delayed BLS release. DXY has delved as low as 98.73 with the next target coming via the 9th October trough at 98.69.
  • EUR remains buoyed following Tuesday's French-induced bounce, which saw EUR/USD reclaim 1.16 to the upside. Markets took solace in the announcement by PM Lecornu to suspend pension reform. Whilst this itself is not seen as economically prudent, the move has been met with a positive response from the Socialists, who will not support any motion to censure the government. Elsewhere, the slew of ECB speak over the past 24 hours has failed to shift the dial for market pricing and that will likely remain the case with Villeroy, de Guindos, Lane & Lagarde due to give remarks. EUR/USD has ventured as high as 1.1644.
  • The Yen's gains vs. the USD have extended into a second session with the former underpinned by a broad haven appeal alongside US-China trade tensions. That being said, the domestic story remains a tricky one with political tensions front and centre. Following the recent collapse of the ruling coalition, opposition parties are scrambling to see if they can present a credible candidate as an alternative to Takaichi. Accordingly, Japan's Parliamentary Committee failed to agree on holding an election to choose the next PM on October 21st, as proposed by the LDP. Comments from the DPFP leader suggested that there is still some distance with the CDP in talks, but if issues can be resolved, there could be another meeting on October 20th. USD/JPY briefly made its way onto a 150 handle, delving as low as 150.91 before reclaiming 151 status.
  • After the Pound's brief wobble vs. the USD yesterday in the wake of a dovish labour market report, the pound has since stabilised and briefly hit a new high for the week at 1.3373. Yesterday's jobs report was followed up by remarks from BoE Governor Bailey, who noted that the data support his view of a softening labour market. Additionally, Taylor also stated that he now sees a "bumpy" landing as more likely than a soft landing. Additionally, the November 26th budget is a great source of uncertainty for the MPC. On which, in an interview today, UK Chancellor Reeves says she is looking at both tax rises and spending for next month. The next upside target for Cable comes via the 1.34 mark.
  • Antipodeans are both on the front foot vs. the USD, albeit the AUD is slightly outperforming its antipodean peer following a strong Yuan fix by the PBoC and hawkish comments from RBA Assistant Governor Hunter, who said recent data has been a little stronger than expected and inflation is likely to be stronger than forecast in Q3.

Fixed Income

  • USTs are marginally firmer (+1 tick at 113-14), extending Tuesday’s gains amid lingering haven demand and cautious sentiment following renewed US-China trade tensions after Trump threatened to end cooking oil business with China; support also comes from dovish Fed commentary, with Powell signalling rising job market risks, nearing the end of balance sheet runoff, and justification for a September rate cut, while today’s focus turns to Fed speakers and the Beige Book.
  • Bunds trade higher (+17 ticks at 129.85) within a 129.68–129.95 range, supported by dovish ECB comments from Villeroy suggesting the next move is more likely a cut. A relatively poor 2050/2056 Bund auction sparked little move on price action. Elsewhere, OATs outperform after France’s Socialist Party backed PM Lecornu’s temporary pension reform suspension, tightening the OAT-Bund spread to 78.32 from Tuesday's peak of 84.50.
  • Gilts outperform global peers (+36 ticks at 92.31), holding near highs of 92.39 with potential to retest early-August levels (92.66), supported by reports that Chancellor Reeves may halve the annual tax-free ISA allowance to boost UK equity investment, while broader budget discussions point to potential tax rises and spending cuts ahead of remarks from BoE’s Breeden.
  • UK sells GBP 1.5bln 0.125% 2031 I/L Gilt: b/c 3.49x, real yield 0.889%.
  • Germany sells EUR 0.757bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 0.0% 2050 and EUR 1.182bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.90% 2056 Bund.

Commodities

  • Crude benchmarks trade rangebound, oscillating in a c. USD 0.50/bbl band. WTI and Brent remain below USD 59/bbl and USD 62.50/bbl, respectively, as markets wait for delayed weekly Private Inventory data following the US holiday on Monday. Elsewhere, Russian Deputy PM Novak said the current oil price reflects the existing balance on the energy market, whilst Russia has the potential to raise oil production.
  • Spot XAU has continued its historic rally, breaking beyond USD 4,200/oz, as Fed Chair Powell signals another cut this month. The yellow metal is currently trading at USD 4,218/oz, continuing with a broad consensus that XAU could reach USD 5,000/oz in 2026.
  • Base metals remain choppy but paring back most of Tuesday’s losses as the dollar weakens on dovish Powell comments. 3M LME Copper peaked at USD 10.75k/t and is currently trading off its best levels despite a lack of newsflow.
  • Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak says the current oil price reflects the existing balance on the energy market. Russia has the potential to raise oil production. No plan for Russia to submit new oil output without a compensation plan to OPEC. Demand for global energy is growing, especially for electric power. Demand for oil is also rising and is on par with 2024.
  • Russian Deputy PM Novak says Russian gas accounts for some 19% of European gas imports; Russia is ready for discussions on gas supplies to Europe.
  • Russian Deputy PM Novak, regarding US President Trump's remarks about gasoline shortages in Russia, says Russia has stable domestic market supply.

Geopolitics

  • "Israel's Channel 12: It is being investigated that one of the four bodies of the hostages handed over does not belong to an Israeli hostage", according to Sky News Arabia.
  • "Israeli Security: The Rafah Crossing will not be opened today for logistical reasons", via Al Arabiya. "Technical checks before opening the Rafah crossing "take time", Israeli security says.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:00 am: Oct 10 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -4.7%
  • 8:30 am: Oct Empire Manufacturing 10.7, est. -1.8, prior -8.7

Central Banks Speakers

  • 9:30 am: Fed’s Miran Speaks at Invest in America Forum
  • 12:30 pm: Fed’s Miran at Nomura Research Forum
  • 1:00 pm: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Artificial Intelligence
  • 2:00 pm: Fed Releases Beige Book
  • 2:30 pm: Fed’s Schmid Holds Townhall Event

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

it’s certainly been quite a ride in markets since Friday's trade escalation with many sentiment shifts in the subsequent 2-3 days. The last 24 hours has been a microcosm of that with the S&P 500 (-0.16%) only slightly lower after rallying hard from lows of around -1.5% just after the open and then bouncing off the highs of around +0.4% a couple of hours before the New York close. The rally back was caused by dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell after Europe went home, but a late social media post from President Trump reignited some fears of US-China escalations. S&P Financials (+1.12%) were among the outperformers after banks kicked off Q3 reporting season, joined by defensives like Consumer Staples (+3.04%).

In his post, President Trump said that he believed China was “purposefully not buying our Soybeans”, and that in response they were “considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution.” In turn, those comments revived Friday’s fears about a fresh escalation in the trade war, and it contrasted with some more emollient remarks from US Trade Representative Greer earlier in the day, who’d expressed confidence that tensions would ease in the coming weeks through ongoing trade talks. So risk assets have whipsawed over the last few sessions in response to the various headlines.

That backdrop meant the trade-exposed indices were the most impacted, especially after the late escalation. For instance, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index fell -1.95%, and that’s made up of companies publicly listed in the US who do most of their business in China. It did open over -3% lower though. Similarly, the Philadelphia Semiconductor index (-2.28%) struggled and closed near the lows of the day, given the importance of chips to the trade war. Indeed, it was tech stocks that lagged on a sectoral basis yesterday, with the NASDAQ (-0.76%) seeing a larger decline than the S&P 500 (-0.16%), with the Mag-7 (-1.33%) also lower, whereas small-cap stocks in the Russell 2000 turned round from a -1.74% early loss to a big +1.38% gain.

It was Fed Chair Powell who provided a big offset to the trade fears, as he struck a more dovish tone than expected. The main headline was a surprise discussion around ending the shrinking of its balance sheet in the coming months. While our rates strategists suggest this timeline could be deliberately vague, it puts December on the map in terms of a halt. Indeed, recent history suggests "coming months" with regards to balance sheet changes has resulted in action within 2-3 months. There wasn't much new on rates and the economy but there was no pushback to a cut later this month and the labour market commentary leant in a dovish direction as well.

The combination of the trade fears and the dovish comments has led to a decent rally for US Treasuries. For instance, the 10yr yield was unchanged yesterday, but overnight it’s fallen -2.1bps to 4.01%, which would be its lowest closing level since early April around the Liberation Day turmoil. Another factor that’s helped to keep a lid on yields has been a fresh drop in oil prices. So Brent crude oil prices (-1.47%) fell to a five-month low of $62.39/bbl, and overnight they’ve seen a further drop to $62.12/bbl. So even as the tariff threats have escalated again, investor concerns about inflation have come down, with the US 5yr inflation swap (-2.1bps) closing at a 3-month low yesterday of 2.54%. Nevertheless, the ongoing decline in nominal and real yields has continued to push up gold prices (+0.79%), which hit a fresh record yesterday of $4,143/oz, and overnight they’re up another +0.91% to $4,180/oz.

Otherwise, we’re now on day 15 of the government shutdown, which means we’re very close to overtaking the third longest shutdown in 2013, which lasted for 16 days. Moreover, a record 35-day shutdown certainly doesn’t look implausible anymore. There are still no signs of compromise either, and the Office of Management and Budget posted yesterday that they were “making every preparation to batten down the hatches and ride out the Democrats’ intransigence”. So the rhetoric doesn’t sound at all like either side is preparing for a deal. If it weren’t for the shutdown, we’d have been writing about today’s CPI print for September, but that’s been delayed as well, so we’re flying blind on a growing amount of economic data right now. That said, this CPI print is one of the few things that will come out even if the shutdown continues, as it’s used in the social security calculations, so it’s currently scheduled for October 24. 

Back in Europe, there was a big rally for French OATs as investor hopes grew for some sort of budget compromise. The main catalyst was that PM Lecornu proposed suspending the 2023 pension reform until after the presidential election, meaning no increase in the retirement age between now and January 2028. The Socialist Party have now said they won't vote to topple the government. The proposed 2026 draft budget would aim for a 4.7% deficit of GDP, which is broadly in-line with the previous outlook, and without the pension reform puts the trajectory of deficit/GDP closer to 5.0% over time. So even though that might read negatively from a debt sustainability point of view, markets were reassured because it was seen as raising the chances that Lecornu would remain as PM and a snap legislative election would be avoided. Polymarket now have the probability of an election being called by year-end at 36%, down from 72% on Monday afternoon. So that meant French assets outperformed, with 10yr yields down -7.4bps, which brought the Franco-German 10yr spread down to a four-week low of 78.3bps. Moreover, the CAC 40 (-0.18%) outperformed the Europe-wide STOXX 600 (-0.37%), with a strong performance for French banks including Société Générale (+2.42%), Crédit Agricole (+0.67%), and BNP Paribas (+0.41%). 

Meanwhile in the UK, gilts were another outperformer after the UK labour market data was weaker than expected, which in turn led investors to price in more rate cuts from the BoE. Specifically, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.8% in the three months to August (vs. 4.7% expected), whilst private sector regular earnings growth fell to +4.4% (vs. +4.5% expected) at the same time, the weakest since December 2021. So that meant more rate cuts were priced in, with the amount expected by the June 2026 meeting up +5.9bps on the day. In turn, gilt yields fell across the curve, with the 10yr yield down -6.8bps, whilst sterling weakened -0.10% against the US Dollar. The weaker pound also supported the FTSE 100 (+0.10%), which was a relative outperformer on a day that most of the major global equity indices lost ground. 

Otherwise in Europe, markets put in a weaker performance, with the DAX (-0.62%) posting a stronger decline, even if they closed before Powell's speech. That came as the latest ZEW survey for October was underwhelming, with the current situation component falling to a five-month low of -80.0 (vs. -74.2 expected). Indeed, sovereign bonds rallied across the continent, in line with the broader risk-off tone, with yields on 10yr bunds (-2.6bps) and BTPs (-4.1bps) both falling back.

In Asia, most equity markets are recovering this morning, as the effect of Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks has offered support. Plus they’d already reacted to some of the more negative trade headlines yesterday, so they’re now catching up with some of the more positive comments we’ve had since, unlike the S&P 500 which was reacting to both. So that’s seen gains across the region, with the Nikkei (+1.35%) rebounding, the KOSPI (+1.93%) at a record high, and the Hang Seng (+1.21%) increasing after a run of 7 consecutive declines. And looking forward, US and European equity futures are also pointing higher, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.24%) and the DAX (+0.32%) both rising. However, stocks in mainland China have been weaker, with the Shanghai Comp (+0.10%) and the CSI 300 (-0.03%) both seeing little change. That follows data this morning showing that Chinese CPI was weaker than expected, with a -0.3% decline in prices in September compared with the previous year (vs. -0.2% expected). Meanwhile, PPI inflation was at -2.3%, in line with expectations, marking a 36th consecutive month in deflationary territory.

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include the Fed’s Miran, Waller and Schmid, the ECB’s de Guindos, Rehn and Villeroy, and the BoE’s Ramsden and Breeden. We’ll also get the Fed’s Beige Book, and the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey. Finally, earnings releases include Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/15/2025 - 08:51

New York Factory Activity Surged In October, Jobs & Orders Jump

Zero Hedge -

New York Factory Activity Surged In October, Jobs & Orders Jump

Amid the desert of macro data due to the shutdown, traders are reaching for anything to get a sense of the US economy and this morning's Empire State Fed Manufacturing Survey offers hope for the future.

Specifically, the New York state factory activity unexpectedly expanded and the outlook climbed to the highest since the start of the year despite lingering price pressures.

October general business conditions index increased 19.4 points to 10.7 (its 3rd increase in the last 4 months) as orders and shipments picked up, and a gauge of the outlook over the next six months more than doubled to 30.3, reflecting greater optimism about orders and shipments.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, the report showed a gauge of prices paid for materials rose, while a measure of prices received by state manufacturers increased to a six-month high. Additionally, there was growth in orders and shipments and a gauge of factory employment showed the fastest expansion in three months.

Source: Bloomberg

"Optimism about the outlook improved noticeably," said Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/15/2025 - 08:44

Bank of America Shares Jump On Stellar Q3 Results

Zero Hedge -

Bank of America Shares Jump On Stellar Q3 Results

After yesterday's solid Q3 results from banking giants JPM, Wells, Citi and Goldman, the earnings juggernaut continued this morning with Bank of America reporting third-quarter earnings that also beat estimates across the board, as investment-banking activity increased amid a long-awaited comeback in M&A and net interest income topped analysts’ estimates.

Here are the full details from the company's Q3 results: 

  • Diluted EPS $1.06, up 19% YoY, beating estimates of $0.95
  • Revenue $28.09BN, up 6% YoY, beating estimates of $27.51BN
    • Trading revenue (ex-DVA) $5.35 billion, beating estimates of $5.01 billion 
      • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $3.08 billion, missing estimates of $3.1 billion
      • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $2.27 billion, beating estimates of $2.08 billion
    • Wealth & investment management total revenue $6.31 billion, beating estimates of $6.28 billion
  • Net income $8.47 billion, up 23%

And visually:

The second-largest US bank also said that net interest income, a key source of revenue for the company, climbed 9.1% to $15.2 billion. Analysts had expected a 7.6% increase for NII, the revenue collected from loan payments minus what depositors are paid. Net Interest Yield also rose.

  • Net interest income (FTE) $15.39 billion, beating estimates of $15.25 billion 
  • Net interest income $15.23 billion, beating estimates of $15.03 billion
    • Increased $1.3B from 3Q24, driven by higher NII related to GM activity, fixed-rate asset repricing, and higher deposit and loan balances, partially offset by the impact of lower interest rates
  • Net interest yield of 2.01%, beating estimates of 1.98%, and up 7 bps from 2Q25, up 9 bps from 3Q24 
    • Blended cash and securities yield of 3.21% vs. total deposit rate paid of 1.78%

 Turning to the expense side of the income statement, total Q3 compensation expenses were $10.52 billion, above the estimate $10.44 billion. The total Noninterest expense of $17.34BN (higher than the est $17.3BN), increased $0.9B, or 5%, vs. 3Q24, driven by investments in people, brand, and technology, as well as higher revenue-related expenses. The efficiency ratio declined to 62% from 65%, the lowest in over a year.

Here are the Q3 highlights as reported by the bank:

With the Tricolor and First Brands bankruptcies fresh, everyone will be looking at the company's Asset Quality data. Here is the breakdown:

Total net charge-offs of $1.37B, below the est $1.52B, and down $158MM from 2Q25

  • Consumer net charge-offs of $1.0B decreased $81MM, driven by lower credit card losses
    • Credit card charge-off rate of 3.46% in 3Q25 vs. 3.82% in 2Q25
  • Commercial net charge-offs of $389MM decreased $77MM, driven by lower commercial real estate office losses
  • Net charge-off ratio of 0.47% vs. 0.55% in 2Q25

Provision for credit losses of $1.3B, down $297MM from 2Q25, and below estimates of $1.61 billion

  • Net reserve release of $72MM in 3Q25 vs. net reserve build of $67MM in 2Q25
  • Allowance for loan and lease losses of $13.3B represented 1.14% of total loans and leases
    • Total allowance of $14.4B included $1.1B for unfunded commitments
  • Nonperforming loans of $5.3B decreased $0.6B from 2Q25
  • Commercial reservable criticized utilized exposure of $26.3B decreased $1.6B from 2Q25

A look at the bank's balance sheet, liquidity and capital:

  • Return on average equity 11.5%, beating estimates of 10.4%
  • Return on average assets 0.98%, beating estimates of 0.86%
  • Return on average tangible common equity 15.4%, estimate 13.9%
  • Basel III common equity Tier 1 ratio fully phased-in, advanced approach 13.1%, estimate 13.3%
  • Standardized CET1 ratio 11.6%, estimate 11.4%


Looking at the composition of the balance sheet, total loans rose to $1.17 trillion, above the estimate of $1.16 trillion..

... while total deposits also rose $2.00 trillion, but missed estimates of $2.02 trillion

“Strong loan and deposit growth, coupled with effective balance sheet positioning, resulted in record net interest income,” Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan said in a statement Wednesday. “We also saw strong fee performance from our market-facing businesses.”

While not nearly as strong as Goldman or JPM, BofA's global markets group delivered solid results again: Net income was $1.6B, up modestly from a year ago; total revenue of $6.2B increased 11% from 3Q24, driven primarily by higher sales and trading revenue and investment banking fees. The third quarter saw steady trading volumes as investors repositioned around President Donald Trump’s volatile tariff policies and changing geopolitics. Here is the snapshot:

  • Trading revenue excluding DVA $5.35 billion, beating estimate $5.01 billion, largely thanks to equities. 
  • FICC trading revenue excluding DVA $3.08 billion, estimate $3.1 billion, driven by improved performance in credit products
  • Equities trading revenue excluding DVA $2.27 billion, estimate $2.08 billion, driven by increased client activity

Average VaR of $66MM in 3Q25, down from $84MM in Q2, but up from $64 a year ago.

Turning to banking, total revenue of $6.2B increased 7% from 3Q24, driven primarily by higher investment banking fees and treasury services charges, partially offset by lower net interest income. Investment-banking revenue rose 43% to $2.01 billion, better than the $1.65 billion that analysts had expected. Fees for advising on mergers and acquisitions soared 51% to $583 million, and revenue from equity and debt issuance increased 34% and 42%, respectively: 

  • Investment banking revenue $2.01 billion, estimate $1.61 billion
    • Advisory fees $583 million, estimate $446.7 million
    • Debt underwriting rev. $1.11 billion, estimate $858.1 million
    • Equity underwriting rev. $362 million, estimate $346.5 million

Bank of America’s results offered a further look at how the biggest US banks fared in another quarter during Trump’s second term. Investors are also eager to hear details on the national economy from executives whose firms cater to large swaths of American consumers and businesses.

On Tuesday, JPMorgan, Goldman and Citigroup reported third-quarter earnings with strong trading and investment-banking activity boosting results. Bank executives expect trading momentum to continue and the investment-banking pipeline to remain strong.

A wave of company takeovers is lifting dealmakers across Wall Street after trade uncertainty had stifled activity earlier in the year. Global deal values topped $1 trillion in a third quarter for only the second time on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, amid a slew of headline-grabbing transactions.

Shares of the Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank rose 4% at 7:03 a.m. in early New York trading. They’d gained 14% this year through Tuesday, more than the 10% increase for the S&P 500 Financials Index.

BofA's Q3 presentation can be found below (pdf link).

JPM Q3 25 Presentation by Zerohedge

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/15/2025 - 08:14

2009: Calling the Bottom for the Economy

Calculated Risk -

Note: CR is on vacation, and I will return on October 21st.

In early 2009, many analysts were predicting the 2nd Great Depression. However I started seeing some positive signs ... and I was able to call the end of the recession in mid-2009.

From January 2009: Vehicle Sales
David Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch wrote a research piece last week: "Not Your Father’s Recession ...(But Maybe Your Grandfather’s)" (no link)

Needless to say, the piece wasn't too upbeat.

But I was intrigued by some of the comments on vehicle sales.
...
Currently this ratio is at 23.9 years, the highest ever. This is an unsustainable level (I doubt most vehicles will last 24 years!), and the ratio will probably decline over the next few years. This could happen with vehicles being removed from the fleet, but more likely because of a sales increase.
...
Sales won't increase right away (look at the depressed sales during the early '80s), but this does suggest that auto sales are closer to the bottom than the top, and that auto sales will increase significantly in the future - although sales in 2009 will probably be dismal.
And from February 2009: Looking for the Sun
2009 will be a grim economic year. The unemployment rate will rise all year, house prices will fall, commercial real estate (CRE) will get crushed ... but there might be a few rays of sunshine too.
...
Even though most of the economic news will be ugly in 2009, my guess is all three of these series will find a bottom (or at least the pace of decline will slow significantly). This means that the drag on employment in these industries, and the drag on GDP, will slow or stop.

These will be rays of sunshine in a very dark season. That doesn't mean a thaw, but it will be a beginning ...
CR Note: I do not have a crystal ball, but I was looking past the horrible day-to-day numbers and starting to see the end of the recession.

LVMH Soars After Surprise Return To Growth, Signaling Possible End Of Luxury Downturn

Zero Hedge -

LVMH Soars After Surprise Return To Growth, Signaling Possible End Of Luxury Downturn

Shares of LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE in Paris jumped the most since the dot-com era after the world's largest luxury group unexpectedly returned to sales growth in the third quarter, signaling a potential end to the multi-year luxury downturn that had halved the stock.

Third-quarter results showed organic revenue growth of 1%, marking a return to expansion after two consecutive quarters of decline. The rebound was broad-based, led by Selective Retailing and Wines & Spirits, signaling early signs of stabilization in global luxury demand. While Fashion & Leather Goods remained in contraction, the pace of decline narrowed significantly from previous quarters, suggesting momentum is starting to turn and a bottom could be in. 

LVMH Q3 Earnings Snapshot (courtesy of Bloomberg):

  • Organic revenue: +1% (beat est. -0.7%), marking a return to growth after two quarters of decline.

  • Total revenue: €18.28B (-4.2% y/y), slightly above estimates (€18.17B).

By Division (organic growth vs. estimates):

  • Fashion & Leather Goods: -2% (better than -3.5%)

  • Wines & Spirits: +1% (beat -3.2%)

  • Perfumes & Cosmetics: +2% (in line)

  • Watches & Jewelry: +2% (beat +1%)

  • Selective Retailing (Sephora, DFS): +7% (beat +4.6%)

By Region (organic growth vs. estimates):

  • U.S.: +3% (beat +1.9%)

  • Asia ex-Japan: +2% (beat -3.6%)

  • Japan: -13% (missed -4%)

  • Europe: -2% (missed +1.5%)

"The desk is also busy in Consumer Discretionary. There has been a decent uptick in activity in Luxury following LVMH figures with two-way better buy flow in the name, though the desk did find supply in the broader luxury space namely with Richemont and Ferrari," UBS analyst Eva Kindt told clients earlier. 

In a separate note, the UBS analyst Pilar Rocafort noted, "Despite the strong share price performance in the last month (up 9%), which raised expectations into LVMH's Q3 print, UBS analyst Zuzanna Pusz believes the much better growth of the overall group should be taken well by the market. Especially the largest Fashion & Leather Group division's organic sales growth (OSG), at a 2% decline, came in better than expected (as per Zuzanna's conversations with investors the buy-side was looking for a 3% or 4% decline), with OSG improving sequentially ahead of the comparable basis. Shares in LVMH jumped 12% at the open on Wednesday, per Reuters." 

RBC Capital Markets analyst Piral Dadhania said, "We view these results as a step in the right direction." 

Shares in Paris jumped as much as 14%, marking the largest intraday increase since the 16.9% surge on September 24, 2001.

Shares are retracing after being halved since the 2023 peak when the luxury downturn first unfolded. 

LVMH is a bellwether for the luxury industry, providing tailwinds for luxury and consumer stocks today, with Gucci-owner Kering SA and Hermes International rising in Paris. 

Oddo analyst Jean Danjou told clients, "The return to positive growth for the group as a whole in Q3 suggests an improvement in its relative position compared to the rest of the sector." 

"The pace of recovery, stemming from all regions, is encouraging and bodes well for a return to growth next year and beyond," JPMorgan analysts said. 

Related: 

Could the luxury downturn be in the early stages of bottoming, if not reversing?

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/15/2025 - 08:05

Trump Is Making Great, Great Again?

Angry Bear -

“even if Trump’s push to establish authoritarian rule is defeated, it will take many years to recover what we’ve lost.” I have been thinking of this all along. Domestically? Tr_mp has been breaking the nations gains down. What comes to mind is reducing the minimum wage for federal contractors, rolling back rules that strengthening overtime […]

The post Trump Is Making Great, Great Again? appeared first on Angry Bear.

ASML Orders Beat Expectations On AI Boost 

Zero Hedge -

ASML Orders Beat Expectations On AI Boost 

ASML Holding NV shares climbed +4% in Europe after the world's top supplier of photolithography systems for the semiconductor industry reported 5.4 billion euros in new orders for the third quarter, exceeding the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of 4.89 billion euros. Despite lower-than-expected quarterly revenue at 7.52 billion euros, versus the 7.71 billion euros forecast, analysts were pleased with stronger EUV demand and improved 2026 guidance. Shares are up 30.3% on the year, making ASML Europe's largest company by market cap. This earnings report only suggests that tailwinds from artificial intelligence demand will continue for ASML's chip-making machines. 

ASML Q3 Earnings Snapshot: AI Demand Continues (Bloomberg Consensus):

Headline Results: 

  • Bookings: €5.40 billion (-2.6% q/q) vs. €4.89 billion expected - beat Net

  • Net sales: €7.52 billion (-2.3% q/q) vs. €7.71 billion expected - slight miss

  • Operating income: €2.47 billion vs. €2.43 billion expected

  • Gross margin: 51.6% vs. 51.4% expected - margin beat despite lower sales

  • Operating margin: 32.8% vs. 31.3% expected

  • R&D: €1.11 billion vs. €1.2 billion expected

  • Cash: €5.13 billion (-29% q/q) vs. €5.91 billion expected

  • Dividend: €1.60 per share 

Segment Breakdown

  • Net system sales: €5.55 billion (-6.3% q/q) vs. €5.66 billion expected

  • Service & field operations: €1.96 billion vs. €2 billion expected

Unit Shipments (Total 72 systems vs. 98.5 expected)

  • EUV: 9 systems (vs. 9.3 expected)

  • ArFi: 38 systems (vs. 31.9 expected) - strong double-patterning demand

  • ArF Dry: 4 systems (vs. 7 expected)

  • KrF: 11 systems (-31% q/q vs. 32 expected)

  • I-Line: 10 systems (-29% q/q vs. 16 expected)

Geographic Mix

  • China accounted for 42% of net system sales, up from 27% in Q2 - reflecting front-loaded shipments ahead of tightening U.S. export controls.

​​​​​​ASML is the only company that manufactures the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines required to produce the most advanced AI chips to power leading chatbots. The ongoing data center buildout, fueled partially by the "circle-jerk" vendor financing loop between OpenAI, Oracle, and Nvidia, along with a flurry of similar partnerships, has unleashed a massive wave of chip orders totaling in the hundreds of billions, if not more...

"We have seen continued positive momentum around investments in AI, and have also seen this extending to more customers," ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet wrote in a statement, adding that tailwinds will continue favoring its cutting-edge machines, but business in China will be "significantly lower." 

Fouquet noted that 2026 net sales are expected to be on par with 2025 figures. This is a notable shift in guidance after his cautious tone in July, when he declined to confirm growth for next year. 

ASML Q4 Forecast: Solid Guidance Above Consensus

  • Net sales: €9.2–€9.8 billion vs. €9.23 billion expected - in line to above range

  • Gross margin: 51–53% vs. 50.7% expected - margin beat expected

  • R&D expenses: ~€1.2 billion vs. €1.25 billion expected - slightly lower spend guidance

Full-Year Outlook:

  • ASML maintained its full-year gross margin guidance at around 52%, in line with the 52.3% Bloomberg Consensus estimate, signaling continued profitability despite mixed regional demand.

The outlook is "a bit more enthusiastic" than previous commentary, according to Degroof Petercam analyst Michael Roeg.

"The outlook is still cautious, which must be because they expect sales to China to decrease significantly in 2026," Roeg told Bloomberg via email, adding, "That must be compensated by higher sales in 2026 to customers in leading-edge logic and memory."

In markets, ASML shares rose more than 4% in Europe and are up over 30% year to date.

"Semis are also trading well, with the UBS Semi's basket [UBXESEMI] up 2.1%, driven by ASML (up 3.8%) after they reported solid bookings and as the AI boom is fueling demand for their chip making machines," UBS analyst Eva Kindt told clients. 

Here's more commentary (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Barclays (equal-weight)

  • Market would have liked more positivity on 2026, but the fact that the firm is also mentioning China will be less in the mix helps reduce the risk for future estimates somewhat, says analyst Simon Coles

  • Given ASML is usually conservative when guiding for a year out, "this should be enough"

  • "We detect a hint of positivity on 2027 suggesting strong EUV growth on top of 2026"

JPMorgan (overweight)

  • Company didn't provide full 2026 guidance but indicated that sales aren't expected to be below FY25, meaning that the current consensus will stand, says analyst Sandeep Deshpande

  • "With this report, we believe the bearish view of a worse than expected FY26 will be put to rest," and investors will focus on FY27 outlook on the back of a memory market upturn and investments among leading-edge logic chipmakers

Citi (buy)

  • The healthy — but not dramatic — 3Q order intake supports the view of revenue likely growing in 2026, particularly at the leading edge, says analyst Andrew Gardiner

  • "We think ASML's 3Q results are strong enough to support gradually increasing expectations for 2026" and the growth beyond

Morgan Stanley (overweight)

  • Bookings were robust with €3.6bn recognized in EUV — around 15 to 16 tools — a number that's much stronger than expected, says analyst Lee Simpson

  • 42% of 3Q sales came from China versus 27% in 1H, suggesting a possible pull-forward in demand given ASML remarks of a significant drop expected for next year

. . . 

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/15/2025 - 07:20

Medicare Advantage is Not What You Think It is.

Angry Bear -

Two articles in this commentary. The first CEPR article discusses selective loss of Medicare Advantage enrollees. This not necessarily because of people leaving the plans. It is more on the order of the plans cutting benefits in certain plans and also cutting coverage in certain markets of the US. People are also using their plans […]

The post Medicare Advantage is Not What You Think It is. appeared first on Angry Bear.

LA County Declares State Of Emergency Over ICE Raids; Will Pay Rent & Provide Legal Aid

Zero Hedge -

LA County Declares State Of Emergency Over ICE Raids; Will Pay Rent & Provide Legal Aid

Los Angeles County has declared a state of emergency over ongoing ICE raids - and will provide rent relief for tenants who have 'fallen behind as a result' of the enforcement actions targeting people living in the United States illegally. 

The declaration - introduced by County Supervisors Lindsey P. Horvath and Janice Hahn, passed by as 4-1 vote, with Supervisor Kathryn Barger opposing. In addition to rent relief, it will also use taxpayer funds for legal aid and other servicesABC News reports. 

The Tuesday vote allows county supervisors to mobilize resources, and request state and federal financial assistance 'to respond to the impacts of the raids and expedite contracting to address the crisis' - which we're sure will be handled as 'carefully' as Palisades fire aid. One can't help but wonder if the entire point of the declaration is to squander taxpayer funds while delegitimizing the Trump administration's deportation efforts in the court of public opinion. 

"What’s happening in our communities is an emergency - and Los Angeles County is treating it like one," Horvath said in a press release. "Declaring a Local Emergency ensures that the full weight of County government is aligned to support our immigrant communities who are being targeted by federal actions."

ICE began raiding parts of Los Angeles in June with the assistance of 700 active-duty marines, prompting widespread demonstrations. 

"For months, families have lived under threat and workers have been taken from job sites," Horvath continued. "This proclamation is about action and speed — it allows us to move faster, coordinate better, and use every tool available to protect and stabilize our communities. We will continue to stand with our immigrant neighbors - today, and for as long as it takes."

The emergency declaration will remain in effect until the board terminates it. 

*  *  *

Click pic, buy knife, receive masterpiece. Free shipping above $500, so maybe grab a couple. Our personal favorite.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/15/2025 - 06:55

Poland's Beer Industry Is In Trouble

Zero Hedge -

Poland's Beer Industry Is In Trouble

Via Remix News,

Just like neighboring Germany, Poland’s beer industry is reeling, with slightly different factors at play in the Polish market contributing to the decline.

“The beer season that just ended was disappointing. Unfortunately, in the first half of the year, we saw a decline exceeding 6 percent,” said Bartłomiej Morzycki, director general of the Union of Brewing Industry Employers – Polish Breweries.

“The summer months brought no improvement, and in fact, deepened the decline. It was the weakest season for the brewing industry in a very long time,” Morzycki continued.  

Among the causes, he noted “exceptionally unfavorable” weather 

As well as “broader issues” with ​​the alcohol market overall, namely, lower alcohol consumption, he told ISBnews, as cited by Do Rzeczy.

“For some time now, we’ve been observing a steady trend of reducing alcohol consumption among large groups of consumers. Some are giving up alcohol altogether, while others are limiting their consumption,” Morzycki told the portal. 

The trend is not simply due to health concerns but also the cost of alcohol, which, in the face of rising prices and a slower economy, many now see as quite expensive. 

“Paradoxically, salary statistics might suggest that purchasing power is increasing and that the average salary can buy more beer, but this remains purely theoretical. In practice, consumers are buying significantly less,” he emphasized.

“The summer season is behind us, so since the market didn’t recover then, it’s difficult to expect a significant change at the end of the year. This will likely be the deepest market decline, greater than in 2023, when we were struggling with the effects of high inflation,” he pointed out.

Meanwhile, sales of non-alcoholic beer are growing at a double-digit rate, but this has done little to help offset the decline in sales of alcohol. 

He noted that the biggest challenges facing the industry today remain the implementation of a deposit-refund system, which requires a significant investment and organizational effort, as well as the intensification of the debate surrounding alcohol policy. 

“We still haven’t given up hope of saving the current deposit-refund systems for returnable bottles, which are effective and should never be incorporated into the system for disposable packaging. Under the new regulations, such bottles are no longer profitable. The system disrupts the current circulation chains for these bottles, and as a consequence, they may be forced out of the market because producers will have no incentive to use this type of packaging,” the director said.

Morzycki took aim at various proposals for higher taxes, which he says has created an atmosphere of “chaos” surrounding the alcoholic beverage market. 

One proposal, he claims, even seeks to ban the advertising and sale of non-alcoholic beer.

He also noted the deposit refund scheme. Rising production costs, which have caused average beer prices to jump by about 45 percent over the past four years, have slowed somewhat. But the excise and deposit tax are still a problem. Morzycki estimates the excise tax will add some 20 groszy per can or bottle of beer, while the deposit will add an additional 50 groszy. The deposit tax can be refunded later, “but the customer will perceive the beer to be more expensive at the time of purchase. And this only applies to beer, as alcoholic beverages in disposable glassware are not covered by the deposit,” Morzycki concluded.

Given the current challenges and the risk of further ones, he says there is a high chance some breweries will not survive.

“Unfortunately, considering the above risks – and I’ve only mentioned some of the emerging ideas – even partial implementation could prove disastrous for a large portion of the beer market,” he told ISBnews.  

“For example, when it comes to excise tax, if the government’s proposed increase is implemented, we’ll have a rate at the same level as Denmark. The beer excise tax in Poland is already significantly higher than in Germany or the Czech Republic, and we’re starting to see beer imported from those countries. This means consumption is occurring here, but taxes and jobs remain abroad. As a consequence of such a policy, the slow disappearance of breweries will be a reality,” the director stated.

Read more here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/15/2025 - 06:30

Foreign-trained physicians and the physician workforce

Angry Bear -

I’ve written previously about the shortage of primary care physicians in the US. In principle, one way to address this shortage is to admit more international medical graduates as physicians. But an historic barrier to this solution is the requirement for US residency training. Some states are passing laws allowing international medical graduates if they […]

The post Foreign-trained physicians and the physician workforce appeared first on Angry Bear.

Britain Set To Outlaw Fracking After Decades Of Debate

Zero Hedge -

Britain Set To Outlaw Fracking After Decades Of Debate

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

  • Labour plans to introduce a “total ban” on fracking this autumn, replacing the current moratorium with permanent legislation.

  • Experts say the U.K.’s complex geology makes large-scale fracking unviable and risky compared to U.S. shale formations.

  • The move aims to prevent future governments, such as the Reform Party, from reinstating fracking without majority parliamentary approval.

There have been discussions around fracking in the U.K. for years, with the government going back and forth on whether to support new operations. Politicians have explored the potential for fracking, which has been successful for fossil fuel recovery in the United States, while environmentalists have fought against it. While many may have thought that fracking had been banned long ago in the U.K., a decisive ban on the practice had not actually taken place… until now.

Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, is a technique for recovering gas and oil from shale rock. It requires drilling into the earth to direct a high-pressure mixture of water, sand, and chemicals at a rock layer, to release the gas inside. Wells can be drilled both vertically and horizontally to release the gas. The practice is controversial as the injection of fluid at high pressure into the rock can cause earth tremors – small movements in the earth’s surface. In addition, fracking requires huge quantities of water. 

In recent years, in the U.K., the government has been back and forth on its fracking policy. Former Prime Minister Liz Truss put it back on the table, in the hope of attracting greater funding for fossil fuel production. However, just a month later, her successor Rishi Sunak reinstated the previous moratorium on the practice. Ahead of the 2024 general election, in the Labour Party manifesto, the political party stated plans to ban fracking for good if it came into power.

In addition to environmental concerns, experts suggest that the U.K. terrain is simply not suitable for fracking. Chris Cornelius, the geologist who founded the U.K.’s first fracking company, Cuadrilla Resources, told media sources that the government’s support for the practice was merely a “political gesture” and that “I don’t think there is any chance of fracking in the U.K. in the near term."

From 2004 to 2010, there was an early exploration of fracking in England. Cornelius said that while undertaking exploratory drilling, Cuadrilla discovered that the geology of the U.K. was unsuited to widespread fracking operations. He suggested that no sensible investors would fund operations, as “It’s very challenging geology, compared with North America,” which is more well-suited to fracking operations.

While the U.S. has large, flat, thick shale formations, which are relatively simple to drill into and extract gas from, the U.K. has thinner, more geologically complex and heavily faulted and folded shale formations. The U.K. geology makes it more difficult to drill, exacerbating the threat of earthquakes, as well as making for lower yields.

Now, the U.K. Labour government plans to ban fracking once and for all. In October, Energy Minister Ed Miliband announced that Labour was accelerating plans to introduce a “total ban” on fracking. The Party aims to introduce the ban this autumn. While the current government never planned to permit new fracking projects, the move is mainly directed at preventing the right-wing, populist Reform Party from making such a move if it should come into power.

At present, the U.K. energy minister is permitted to lift the fracking moratorium without a vote in parliament. However, a change in the law would mean that the government would need to put it to a vote and convince the majority of MPs to support fracking, which would be more difficult.

Several communities across the U.K. have spoken out against fracking proposals due to fears of the earthquakes, disruption, and blight to the countryside it causes. Around 187 constituencies across the U.K. that sit above shale gas could be affected by fracking if it were permitted. Miliband now aims to raise awareness about the potential threat of fracking through his countrywide “send the frackers packing” campaign.

The Reform Party, which has grown in popularity over the last year, largely due to its strong stance on immigration and bold promises for the U.K. economy, has pledged to end the moratorium on fracking if it comes into power in 2029.

In a recent party conference, the Lincolnshire mayor, Andrea Jenkyns, walked onto stage reiterating President Donald Trump’s words: “drill baby, drill”.

Unlike Labour, Reform plans to return to a reliance on traditional energy sources, such as oil and gas, much in the same way as we are seeing in the United States right now, as Trump undoes much of the previous administration’s progress towards a green transition.

After decades of back and forth, the introduction of a ban on fracking would mean that introducing fracking practices for fossil fuel recovery in the future would be far less likely, as achieving this would require a majority political support for the move. Having seen the lifting and reintroduction of the moratorium on fracking several times in recent years, a ban would ensure that no single politician can make this decision alone in the future.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/15/2025 - 05:00

Will Russian-US Tensions Likely Spiral Out Of Control If Ukraine Obtains Tomahawk Missiles?

Zero Hedge -

Will Russian-US Tensions Likely Spiral Out Of Control If Ukraine Obtains Tomahawk Missiles?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The precedent set by Russia’s restrained response to Ukraine obtaining the F-16s, which could also be nuclear-equipped, suggests that tensions with the US will remain manageable if Ukraine obtains the Tomahawks too due to the modus vivendi that’s arguably been in place for managing them.

The latest talk about the US transferring longer-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine, which Putin said earlier this month could only be used with US military personnel’s direct involvement, has prompted concerns about a potentially uncontrollable escalation spiral. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov assessed that such a development would lead to “a significant change in the situation” but nonetheless reaffirmed that it wouldn’t prevent Russia from achieving its goals in the special operation.

Ukraine’s explicitly stated goal in obtaining these arms is to “pressure” Russia into freezing the Line of Contact without any concessions from Kiev, which would essentially amount to Moscow conceding on its aforesaid goals since none would be achieved in full should that happen, ergo why it hasn’t agreed. In pursuit of that end, Ukraine threatened to cause a blackout in the Russian capital, which would likely be accompanied by more attacks against civilian and military logistics targets far behind the frontlines.

Some are therefore worried that that Russian-US tensions could spiral out of control, especially after Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that the Tomahawks can be nuclear-equipped, but the precedent set by the F-16s suggests that they’ll remain manageable. Putin himself warned in early 2024 that they too could be nuclear-equipped, yet Russia ultimately didn’t treat their use as a potential nuclear first-strike. This is arguably due to the modus vivendi that was described here in late 2024:

“[Comparatively pragmatic US ‘deep state’ figures] who still call the shots always signal their escalatory intentions far in advance so that Russia could prepare itself and thus be less likely to ‘overreact’ in some way that risks World War III. Likewise, Russia continues restraining itself from replicating the US’ ‘shock-and-awe’ campaign in order to reduce the likelihood of the West ‘overreacting’ by directly intervening in the conflict to salvage their geopolitical project and thus risking World War III.

It can only be speculated whether this interplay is due to each’s permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (‘deep state’) behaving responsibly on their own considering the enormity of what’s at stake or if it’s the result of a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’. Whatever the truth may be, the aforesaid model accounts for the unexpected moves or lack thereof from each, which are the US correspondingly telegraphing its escalatory intentions and Russia never seriously escalating in kind.”

The latest talk about the US transferring longer-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine fits the pattern of leaks serving to tip Russia off about this preplanned escalation so it can prepare its responses in advance. Time and again, Putin has exercised an almost saintly degree of self-restraint in refusing to escalate, whether symmetrically or asymmetrically. Readers can learn more about these precedents from the eight analyses enumerated in the one from late 2024 that was hyperlinked to above.

The only exception was him authorizing the use of the Oreshniks in November after the US and UK let Ukraine use their long-range missiles inside of Russia, obviously through the direct involvement of their military personnel, which he might repeat if Ukraine obtains the Tomahawks. He didn’t authorize them after Ukraine’s strategic drone strikes against parts of Russia’s nuclear triad in June that were much more provocative, however, which might have been due to his diplomatic calculations vis-à-vis Trump.

Whether one agrees with the policy or not, it’s arguably the case that Putin wants to avoid doing anything that could reaffirm Trump’s perception (carefully crafted by the warmongers around him like Zelensky and Lindsey Graham) that Russia is escalating, thus falsely justifying “reciprocal US escalations”. So long as he continues formulating policy based on this calculation, and there’s no credible indication thus far that it’s changed, then any escalation over the Tomahawks will likely remain manageable.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 10/15/2025 - 02:00

All Hell Broke Out In Boston As Police Cruiser Torched In 'Premeditated' Attack On Cops: Union Chief

Zero Hedge -

All Hell Broke Out In Boston As Police Cruiser Torched In 'Premeditated' Attack On Cops: Union Chief

The president of Boston's Police Patrolmen's Association has responded after a violent mob of over 100 people unleashed chaos in Boston’s streets, torching a police cruiser and pelting officers with fireworks, cones, and poles in what witnesses called a "riot-like" assault on law enforcement.

The wild attack, which unfolded in the early hours of October 5, was described as a deliberate and "hell-bent" targeting of police, according to Larry Calderone, president of the Boston Police Patrolmen’s Association, in an interview with Fox News.

They came with a plan to attack officers, and they executed it,” Calderone said, slamming the mob’s actions as “absolutely unacceptable.”

The mayhem began just after 2 a.m. when police responded to reports of illegal street racing, only to be met with an all-out assault. One cruiser was set ablaze and left in ruins, requiring a tow from the scene.

The rampaging group didn’t stop there, moving through four Boston communities and growing more aggressive at each stop before converging in the city’s South End. “This was premeditated,” Calderone warned. “If you’re coming to Boston to terrorize our city or assault our officers, you’re not welcome here.”

Simran Nalhatra, a witness to the chaos, told Boston 25News, that “It was like a riot."

"We saw someone get arrested, and we looked to our right, and there was this cop car on fire," Nalhatra said. "It was really scary. I was like, ‘I don’t know why it was so loud,’ and everyone’s screaming, and it went on for an hour or two."

Calderone told Fox News that this wasn’t just reckless street racing, but was a direct and dangerous attack on police.

Spinning tires is one thing. Assaulting officers and endangering the public is something we will never tolerate,” the law enforcement official said.

Shockingly, only two arrests were made: Julian Bowers, 18, of Cumberland, Rhode Island, and William Cantwell, 19, of Warwick, Rhode Island.

Both face serious charges, including assault and battery on a police officer and malicious destruction of property. Bowers allegedly hurled objects at officers, while Cantwell reportedly smashed a cruiser with a pole. In a stunning courtroom twist, the judge set bail at just $500 for Bowers and $1,000 for Cantwell. To add insult to injury, the suspects were seen fist-bumping after the low bail was announced.

Calderone called the incident unprecedented, saying it’s been over a year since Boston saw a street takeover of this magnitude. “This level of violence against our officers is a big deal,” he said. “It should never happen, and we won’t stand for it.”

Suffolk County District Attorney Kevin Hayden also condemned the chaos, saying, “dangerous, intolerable assaults on our police officers and our neighborhoods.”

“We and our law enforcement partners will do all we can to identify and hold accountable anyone involved. No one should think they can jeopardize public safety in such a brazen manner without consequences,” Hayden added.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 23:25

Is Cuba Returning To US Crosshairs?

Zero Hedge -

Is Cuba Returning To US Crosshairs?

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The US and Ukraine’s arguably coordinated fearmongering campaign about the regional security consequences of Cubans allegedly fighting for Russia hints that the island will soon come under more pressure.

Reuters exclusively reported in early October that the State Department sent an unclassified cable to dozens of US missions directing diplomats to tell countries that Cuba sent up to 5,000 fighters to support Russia against Ukraine.

Ukrainian intelligence then promoted these claims in the New York Post, arguably through coordination with the State Department, which coincided with the Russian Upper House ratifying a new military cooperation pact with Cuba that has itself been the subject of speculation too.

Some suspect that it’s meant to formalize Russia’s reported military recruitment pipeline in Cuba that incensed some officials in Havana two years ago as analyzed here at the time, which might now include formal troops along the lines of an earlier pact with North Korea, while others see grander plans. Alexander Stepanov, military expert at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, told TASS that Russia might send Iskanders and even Oreshniks to Cuba under this pact.

According to him, this “would create an effective deterrent capable of reaching strategically important targets on US territory, thereby maintaining the balance of power and parity in offensive capabilities”, particularly in the context of possible US plans to send long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine. This line of speculation isn’t new since Deputy Chairman of the Duma’s Defense Committee Alexei Zhuravlev proposed in January 2024 that Russia base nukes there and elsewhere in the region.

That would be sensible in principle but unlikely in practice since Cuba probably doesn’t want to risk provoking Trump into considering an Iranian-like maximum pressure campaign against it, especially not after he just ordered a regional military buildup on the pretext of stopping drug trafficking. Continued high-profile speculation about the scenario of Russian missiles once again secretly being sent to Cuba, whether from publicly financed TASS or a Duma official, could still be exploited to this end though.

Much more likely, however, is that the State Department’s reported cable about Cuban fighters supporting Russia against Ukraine is taken advantage of to gradually justify more pressure upon the island. About that, this claim might be true (regardless of whether it concerns volunteers and/or actual troops) just like earlier ones about North Korean support were later confirmed by Russia, but it would be Cuba’s legal right to allow its citizens to cooperate with Russia like this and/or send direct support.

Even if that’s all that there is their newly ratified pact, Ukraine’s fearmongering about it to the New York Post – which Trump once called his “favorite newspaper” – could suffice for returning Cuba to the US’ crosshairs. According to them, “The combat experience Cuban nationals gain in Ukraine is a dangerous and transferable commodity. This experience could be used to train proxies and destabilize other regions, particularly in Latin America, threatening the security of US allies and partners.”

It’s unimportant that the aforementioned is speculation since all that matters is that Trump somehow or another comes to believe (whether on his own or per the urging of close advisors) that this is a credible scenario and correspondingly authorizes a more muscular policy against Cuba.

This could even be driven by cynical electoral interests ahead of next fall’s midterms but disguised as being in the US’ national security interests.

Observers should therefore keep a close eye on US-Cuban ties going forward.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 22:35

Military Analyst Warns US Doesn't Have Enough Tomahawks To Send To Ukraine

Zero Hedge -

Military Analyst Warns US Doesn't Have Enough Tomahawks To Send To Ukraine

Military analysts have told the Financial Times that even if President Trump decides to approve US Tomahawk transfers to Ukraine, this will have limited impact on the trajectory of the war, given especially that a mere dozens will be available to send.

The report also suggests that the US is involved in too many conflicts at once, and that Pentagon stockpiles of advanced weapons are being depleted.

Via Reuters

Trump started this week by issuing more ambiguous and vague statements on the Tomahawk issue. On Monday he had said Tomahawks are a "very offensive weapon," noting, "honestly, Russia does not need that." He hinted he 'might' pull the trigger on this escalation, amid Moscow warnings and threats.

FT found that out of over 4,000 Tomahawk missiles in the US arsenal, only "a few" could be given to Ukraine:

Mark Cancian, a former Pentagon official now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank, estimated in a recent war game that the US had 4,150 Tomahawks in total. However, the US would probably be able to supply only a few to Ukraine.

This is in light of the fact that, out of the 200 the Pentagon has procured since 2022, it has already fired more than 120, according to defense experts. The defense department has requested funding for only 57 more Tomahawks in its 2026 budget. Washington would probably also need Tomahawks for any strike on Venezuelan soil.

Again, this reference to Venezuela is interesting, at a moment of unprecedented American military build-up in the southern Caribbean near the Latin American country's coast. The US has also been expending its missiles on defending Israel, which happened at an increased pace especially over the past year.

Another Washington-based US military analyst put a number to how many Tomahawks American could afford to hand over:

Stacie Pettyjohn, director of the defense program at the Center for a New American Security think-tank, said Washington could spare some 20 to 50 Tomahawks for Ukraine, “which will not decisively shift the dynamics of the war”.

While the long-range missiles could complement Ukraine’s own long-range attack drones and cruise missiles “in large complex salvos to greater effect”, they would “still will be a very limited capability . . . certainly not enough to enable sustained, deep attacks against Russia”, they added.

And of course, the understated if not unspoken part is that all of this risks WW3 with Russia, something that Trump has repeatedly and openly voiced that he wants to seek to avoid at all costs.

On Monday former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued a chilling response which spelled out that this "could end badly for everyone most of all, for Trump himself," according to a translation of his Telegram post.

"It's been said a hundred times, in a manner understandable even to the star-spangled man, that it's impossible to distinguish a nuclear Tomahawk missile from a conventional one in flight," Medvedev, who serves as the Russian Security Council Deputy Chair, further noted.

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 22:10

Where Not To Be In A Crisis

Zero Hedge -

Where Not To Be In A Crisis

Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,

For many years, there have been those who have been prognosticating an economic crisis – not just a recession lasting a year or two, but a full-blown Greater Depression that would eclipse any major event we’ve seen in our lifetimes.

That may appear to be an overstatement, but historically, it’s the norm for a time of major upheaval to occur every eighty years or so. And although some of us began analysing and commenting on the Greater Depression many years ago, it’s clear to all of us that we’ve now entered the leading edge of the crisis.

All of the traditional warning signs are present, and although technology has changed considerably over the millennia, human behaviour has not. We are witnessing the same symptoms that were present in major collapses of the past, going back at least as far as the Roman Empire.

We are therefore seeing not only the initial stages of an economic collapse but the concurrent events, such as an almost total corruption of the political structure, a move toward totalitarian rule, the destruction of currencies, and a loss of faith in leadership across the board. Along the way, we’re also experiencing a decline in logic and morality and an eroding sense of humanity.

That’s quite a lot to take in, yet, sorry to say; we’re only in the first stages of collapse. It will get quite a bit worse before it gets better.

As the economy begins its collapse in earnest, what we shall witness will be a population that will be unable to adapt quickly to the symptoms of the crisis as they increase in frequency and magnitude. The reaction to each will be, first, shock (an inability to comprehend that the impossible has occurred), then fear (a state of confusion and inability to adjust to rapidly-changing conditions), and finally, anger.

This last development should give pause to us all, as it’s the stage when those who have been most strongly impacted realise that there’s precious little that they can do to regain normalcy. When they find that they can’t get their hands around the necks of those who actually are to blame, they’ll take out their anger on whomever is in their proximity – each other.

So, the questions arise: Where will these problems be most prevalent? Where will the situations exist that should be avoided as much as possible, in order to minimize the likelihood that we’ll become collateral damage of the crisis?

Having studied previous similar historical periods, I can attest that this is a question that, unfortunately, requires an extensive and complex answer. However, as a rough guide, there are three considerations that will be overarching.

Regardless of any other concerns that may affect the reader individually, all persons would do well to stay clear (as much as possible) from the following:

First World Countries

Since 1945, the First World countries (the US, UK, EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand) have led the world in both prosperity and power. Under the driving force of the US, they’ve created not only the advances of the last eighty years but also the rot that has led to the current crisis. As such, these countries are not only the countries where we’re seeing the most dramatic oppression of people; they will also experience the most precipitous fall economically, politically, and sociologically.

Although these countries have, until recently, seemed to be the most attractive locations in which to live, that condition has now begun a reversal, and in the coming years, they’ll represent the very nexus of decline. As such, they’ll become the most unpredictable and even the most dangerous places to be.

Conversely, the choicest countries in which to live will be those countries where change will be minimal. Those countries where the populations and governments have been relatively unambitious over the last half century or more, will be the locations that are the least likely to change dramatically during the crisis. That one fact speaks loudly to the reader’s economic, political, and social well-being in this period.

Cold Climates

The colder a location is, the less hospitable it will be in a crisis. When governments collapse economically and seemingly basic amenities can no longer be paid for, politicians will look after their own needs before those of the people they are meant to represent. Simple services such as snow ploughing may be dropped from city budgets that must experience cutbacks.

More importantly, during an energy crunch, you’re likely to experience periods in which heat cannot be attained. This doesn’t mean that you will necessarily freeze to death, but it does mean that life will be much harder. In addition, produce cannot be grown in colder climates, which eliminates even the possibility of a kitchen garden in colder months.

Cities

By far, this is the riskiest of the three concerns. The more concentrated the population is the greater the risk. The larger your building, the less control you have over utilities. If the water, electricity, or heat is shut off due to energy shortages, you will have little or no recourse.

But, by far, the greatest risk in a city will be the inherent depersonalisation that exists even in the best of times. Even if you live in a very nice apartment building in a nice neighbourhood, you’re likely to be socially isolated from others. (You may not even know the people in the apartment across the hall.) People in cities tend not to help each other much at the best of times, but in a crisis, those around you can become a threat to your very existence.

Most importantly, food supplies are likely to be interrupted for indeterminate periods and, as Isaac Azimov stated, “After nine missed meals, a man will kill for food.” Even if you’re able to obtain a loaf of bread at a neighbourhood store, you may not be able to walk home with it without being waylaid. Even brief periods of interruption of food delivery to a population centre may result in a simple loaf of bread being worth killing for.

And even for those who live in prosperous neighbourhoods where the neighbours tend to be civil, poorer neighbourhoods are not so far away that their residents, if desperate, will not make the short trip to where they think others have the essentials.

Such breakdowns, as described above, tend to occur slowly, then suddenly. Those of us who have lived through city riots understand that tension builds as people attempt to maintain normal decorum, then some small event sparks off rioting. A citywide riot can go off like popcorn spontaneously. In good times, police can quell a riot in a few days or weeks, but when rioting is citywide, and the cause cannot be quickly remedied, riots can last for extended periods, potentially turning formerly-safe city streets into the equivalent of a war zone.

Of course, there’s the tendency to say, “Don’t be ridiculous – it can’t get that bad.” However, history tells us that whenever a major crisis period occurs, the above conditions almost always occur.

The reader may wish to assess his exposure to the three conditions above. Ideally, he’ll find a location to sit out the crisis – a country that’s likely to be less affected by the events that are now unfolding. He may choose a location that’s warm year-round, where food is plentiful even in harder times. And he may try to locate himself in a community of lower population density, where neighbours habitually help each other.

But regardless of what the reader chooses to do, he should be aware that the future of his well-being and that of his family may hinge on the choices he makes in the very near future.

*  *  *

The challenges described above are not hypothetical—they are unfolding now, and the pace of change is accelerating. Knowing where not to be is only part of the equation; what matters just as much is understanding the practical steps you can take today to protect yourself and your wealth before the situation deteriorates further. That’s why we’ve prepared an urgent, free PDF report: Guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse. It reveals strategies to safeguard your assets, secure your freedom, and even find opportunity in the turmoil. You can access it immediately by clicking here.

*  *  * Now - get FREE shipping above $500 at ZeroHedge Store!

A few ideas...

Prepper loadout (this + this + this + this + this - or go big)

Deadly loadout (this + this + this)

Eat now or freeze loadout (this + this + this)

Tyler Durden Tue, 10/14/2025 - 21:45

Pages