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Schedule for Week of May 4, 2025

Calculated Risk -

The key report scheduled for this week is the March trade balance.

The FOMC meets this week and no change to the Fed funds rate is expected.

----- Monday, May 5th -----
10:00 AM: the ISM Services Index for April.   The consensus is for a reading of 50.6, down from 50.8.

----- Tuesday, May 6th -----
U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for March from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through the most recent report. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is the trade deficit to be $129.0 billion.  The U.S. trade deficit was at $122.7 billion in February as importers rushed to beat the tariffs.

----- Wednesday, May 7th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to to the Fed funds rate is expected at this meeting.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, May 8th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims of 223 thousand, down from 241 thousand last week.

----- Friday, May 9th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

The Wait Is The Price: Quiet Rationing Plagues Canadian Health Care

Zero Hedge -

The Wait Is The Price: Quiet Rationing Plagues Canadian Health Care

Authored by Vincent Geloso via the American Institute for Economic Research (AIER),

Last month, a video was trending on social media showing a Canadian woman explaining that she had a 13-month wait for a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) test to check for a brain tumor.

On X, formerly known as Twitter, community notes popped up to say that the video was misleading. “Priority is decided by physicians, not the province,” wrote one commenter. Another noted that wait times did vary by province.

None of this, however, detracts from the core truths:

  • Canadian health care is not free and it has two prices: 

    • the taxes Canadians pay for it

    • and the wait times that make Canadians pay in the form of service rationing.

Canada’s publicly provided health care system actually requires rationing in order to contain costs. Because services are offered at no monetary price, demand exceeds the available supply of doctors, equipment, and facilities. If the different provinces (which operate most health care services) wanted to meet the full demand, each would have to raise taxes significantly to fund services. To keep expenditures down (managing the imbalance from public provision) and thus taxes as well, the system relies on rationing through wait times rather than prices.

The rationing keeps many patients away from care facilities or encourages them to avoid dealing with minor but nevertheless problematic ailments. These costs are not visible in taxes paid for health care, but they are true costs that matter to people.

All this may sound like an economist forcing everything into the “econ box,” but the point has also been acknowledged by key architects of public health care systems themselves. Claude Castonguay, who served as Quebec’s Minister of Health during the expansion of publicly provided care, conceded as much in his self-laudatory autobiography. The reality, he explains, is that eliminating rationing would imply significantly higher costs—costs that politicians are generally unwilling to justify through the necessary tax increases. Multiple government reports also take this as an inseparable feature of public provision—even though they do not say it as candidly as I am saying it here.

To illustrate the magnitude of rationing (and the trend), one can examine the evolution of the median number of weeks between referral by a general practitioner and receipt of treatment from 1993 to 2024. In most provinces (except one), the median wait time in 1993 was less than 12 weeks. Today, all provinces are close or exceed 30 weeks. In two provinces, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island, the median wait times exceed 69 weeks. For some procedures, such as neurosurgery, the wait time (for all provinces) exceeds 46 weeks.

Estimating the full cost of health care rationing is far from straightforward. The central challenge lies in balancing data reliability with the breadth of conditions considered. While some procedures and ailments are well documented, they represent only a subset of those subject to rationing. For many other conditions, data quality is limited or inconsistent, making comprehensive analysis difficult. As a result, most empirical studies focus narrowly on areas where measurement is more robust, leaving much of the total cost unaccounted for.

In 2008, the Canadian Medical Association (CMA) released a study estimating the economic cost of wait times for four major procedures: total joint replacement, cataract surgery, coronary artery bypass graft (CABG), and MRI scans. For the year 2007, the CMA estimated that the cost of waiting amounted to $14.8 billion (CAD). Relative to the size of the Canadian economy at the time, this represented approximately 1.3 percent of GDP. That study did not include, as one former president of the CMA noted, $4.4 billion in foregone government revenues resulting from reduced economic activity. It also does not include the cost of waiting times for new medications.

These procedures do not capture the full scope of delays in the system and only a few procedures—and the analysis focused only on an arbitrary definition of “excessive” wait times. In 2013, the Conference Board of Canada found that adding an extra two additional ailments boosted the cost from $14.8 billion to $20.1 billion.

Another study used a similar method, but considered the cost in terms of lost wages and leisure. It arrived at a figure, for 2023, of $10.6 billion or $8,730 per patient waiting.

One study attempted to estimate the cost of rationing in terms of lives lost. 

This may seem callous, but lives lost means lost productivity—a way to approximate the cost of wait times. One study found that one extra week of delay in the period between meeting with a GP and a surgical procedure increased death rates for female patients by 3 per 100,000 population. Given that the loss of a life is estimated at $6.5 million (CAD), this is not a negligible social cost in terms of mortality.

And all of this for what? One could argue that these wait times come with good care once obtained. That is not true either. 

Adjusting for the age of population, Canada ranks (out of 30):

  • #28 in doctors

  • #24 in care beds

  • #25 in MRI units

  • #26 in CT scanners

In one comparative study examining care outcomes—such as cancer treatment, patient safety, and procedural success—“Canada performed well on five indicators of clinical quality, but its results on the remaining six were rated as either average or poor.” This is despite, after again adjusting for population age structure, Canada ranking as the highest spender among a group of 30 comparable countries. The reality is that, whatever nuances one wishes to introduce—whether in good faith, pedantically, or simply to troll—the core message of the viral video remains accurate: Canadian health care works well for those who can afford to wait. To which I might add: wait very long.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 08:10

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino: 'Many' European Banks Will 'Blow Up' In The Next Few Years

Zero Hedge -

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino: 'Many' European Banks Will 'Blow Up' In The Next Few Years

Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino has issued a dire warning to about Europe's financial system, predicting that "many" of the continent's banks are at risk of catastrophic collapse.

In an interview with the Less Noise More Signal podcast, Ardoino highlighted how stringent regulations and risky banking practices could precipitate a wave of failures, drawing parallels to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023.

Ardoino’s concerns center on the European Union’s regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, which he argues exacerbates systemic risks rather than mitigating them. “The regulation was pushing us to keep 60% of our reserves in uninsured cash deposits in Europe,” the Tether CEO told host Pascal Hügli, describing a scenario where stablecoin issuers are forced to park billions in vulnerable bank accounts. “Imagine that you have 10 billion euros in market cap of your stablecoin in Europe. Then 60% needs to be kept in uninsured cash deposits in a bank. Uninsured cash deposit means that the bank insurance in Europe is only 100,000 euros. If you have 10 billion, 100,000 euros is like a spitting on a fire.

The math, as Ardoino laid out, is grim. With 60% of a stablecoin’s reserves—equivalent to 6 billion euros in his example—held in uninsured deposits, banks’ fractional reserve practices amplify the risk. “They can lend out 90% of it to people that want to buy a house, that want to start a business, and all that,” he explained. “So 5.4 billion euros will be lent out by the bank and 600 million euros will be cut.” In the event of a 20% redemption demand, or 2 billion euros, Ardoino warned that banks would fall short of cash. “You go to the bank and you tell the bank, well, I want 2 billion euros. And the bank says, well, I only have 600 million euros.”

Ardoino predicts that the fallout would be catastrophic for stablecoin issuers. “As a stablecoin issuer, you go bankrupt. Not because of you, because of the bank,” the Tether CEO said. “So the bank goes bankrupt and you go—like, so is—I mean, and—and, oh, sure, the government will say, ah, told you so, stable coins are very dangerous.”

Ardoino’s critique extends to the broader European banking ecosystem, which he believes is ill-equipped to handle stablecoin operations. Major institutions like UBS, which he described as “systemic risk banks,” refuse to work with stablecoin issuers, forcing companies like Tether to rely on smaller, less stable financial institutions. “They need to use very small banks,” he said, warning that these institutions are particularly vulnerable. “Mark my words, as happened with Silicon Valley Bank that, by the way, almost killed them in 2033, they will face the same issues.”

Four banks blew up last—in the last two years in the US,” he added. “Many banks will blow up in Europe in the many years—in the next few years.

Ardoino’s comments come as Tether plans to launch a stablecoin product in the U.S. as soon as this year.

"We are just exporters of what we believe to be the best product the United States ever created — that is, the US dollar,” the Tether CEO said in an interview with CNBC.

As of April 25, Tether’s USDt solidifies its position as the leading stablecoin, securing a commanding 66% of the market, according to Cointelegraph. With a market capitalization hovering around $150 billion, per CoinGecko, USDt underscores its pivotal role in the crypto ecosystem. The Department of the Treasury’s Q1 2025 report projects a robust future for USD-pegged stablecoins, anticipating their combined market cap to soar to $2 trillion by 2028, signaling a transformative shift in digital finance, per the crypto-focus news outlet

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 07:35

Will The Amended Minerals Deal Lead To More American Weapons Packages For Ukraine

Zero Hedge -

Will The Amended Minerals Deal Lead To More American Weapons Packages For Ukraine

Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,

That would greatly complicate Russia’s goal of demilitarizing Ukraine and thus imperil the peace talks...

The US and Ukraine finally signed their minerals deal after amending the draft agreement to remove a proposal for Ukraine to pay back past US military aid.clause was added though whereby future US military aid, including technology and training, is considered part of the US’ contribution to their joint fund. More weapons packages will likely be in the cards since the US now has economic stakes in Ukraine and the value of the aid that it sends to defend them can be counted toward their joint fund.

Such an arrangement imbues the US with more policymaking flexibility than if it had conceded to Ukraine’s demand for concrete security guarantees. Authorizing another weapons package at this diplomatically delicate moment in the peace process could spook Russia and thus lead to the talks’ collapse. At the same time, however, this deal will likely lead to such packages being authorized after a ceasefire on the pretext of defending US investments and contributing to their joint fund.

What this means in practice is that Russia shouldn’t expect the US to fully dump Ukraine in any realistic scenario from here on out. Trump just rewarded Zelensky for this agreement by “inform[ing] Congress of [his] intention to green-light the export of defense-related products to Ukraine through direct commercial sales (DCS) of $50 million or more” according to the Kyiv Post citing unnamed diplomatic sources. This signals his newfound interest in resuming DCS in lieu of large-scale weapons packages.

Although this sum is insignificant compared to the over $1.6 billion in DCS authorized between 2015-2023 that the Kyiv Post reminded their audience about, and nowhere near what the US Government directly provided since 2022, it still importantly hints at his calculations. If Trump comes to believe that Zelensky is responsible for the peace talks’ collapse, then he might continue to withhold weapons packages as punishment, but he could still green-light more DCS deals.

Likewise, if he comes to believe that Putin is responsible for this, then he might authorize large-scale weapons packages as punishment. Either way, US arms will likely continue flowing into Ukraine due to their amended minerals deal, with the only variables being the quality, scale, pace, and terms of these weapons shipments. This greatly complicates Russia’s goal of demilitarizing Ukraine, especially seeing as how the US will struggle to stop Europe from arming Ukraine no matter how hard the US might try.

Accordingly, Russia might calculate that it’s better to concede to Ukraine’s partial demilitarization given the difficulty of achieving its full demilitarization, but the threat that this poses could be managed by demanding a demilitarized “Trans-Dnieper” region controlled by non-Western peacekeepers. Even if that proposal isn’t agreed to, Russia might still push for geographic limits on Ukraine’s deployment of certain weapons, which would require a UNSC-approved monitoring and enforcement mechanism to work.

So long as Trump is sincere about reaching a deal with Putin, then he should agree to this compromise or a variation thereof to keep the peace process alive, otherwise Putin might find it politically impossible to approve of any agreement that entails abandoning his goal to demilitarize Ukraine. That’s essentially what’s at stake now given that the amended terms of the US’ minerals deal with Ukraine greatly complicate Russia’s attainment of this objective that’s among the reasons for its special operation.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 07:00

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Colombia Tolima Los Brasiles Peaberry Organic coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• The CEO Who Says an Asteroid Is Coming to Destroy America’s Businesses: He’s a supply-chain logistics geek with a huge following—and a dire warning about tariffs. (Wall Street Journal)

North Korea Stole Your Job: For years, North Korea has been secretly placing young IT workers inside Western companies. With AI, their schemes are now more devious—and effective—than ever. (Wired)

Global BYD: The international expansion of Chinese electric vehicles. (Phenomenal World) see also Inside the rural Texas town where Elon Musk is basing his business empire: After fleeing Silicon Valley for political and business reasons, Elon Musk is building a corporate campus in rural Texas – but his new neighbours have mixed views. (BBC)

How Scheels conquered Middle America: It’s an outdoor retailer. It’s a department store. It’s an amusement park. It’s taking over. (Washington Post)

Israel’s A.I. Experiments in Gaza War Raise Ethical Concerns: Israel developed new artificial intelligence tools to gain an advantage in the war. The technologies have sometimes led to fatal consequences. (New York Times)

The group chats that changed America: But their influence flows through X, Substack, and podcasts, and constitutes a kind of dark matter of American politics and media. The group chats aren’t always primarily a political space, but they are the single most important place in which a stunning realignment toward Donald Trump was shaped and negotiated, and an alliance between Silicon Valley and the new right formed. The group chats are “the memetic upstream of mainstream opinion,” wrote one of their key organizers, Sriram Krishnan, a former partner in the venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (typically styled a16z) who is now the White House senior policy adviser for AI. (Semafor)

This Pill Promises to Give Your Dog More Years. You Might Not Like What Comes With Them. The drug could keep your pet around for longer—but some vets and ethicists worry that we might be barking up the wrong tree. (Slate)

What Is Semafor? The Smiths’ newsletter-and-events business is both a modern media mash-up and a throwback to a pre-Trump era. (New York Magazine)

The philosopher’s machine: my conversation with Peter Singer’s AI chatbot: The world’s most famous living philosopher has launched a chatbot to deal with ethical dilemmas. One former philosophy student-turned-journalist tests it out. (The Guardian)

The Straight-Laced Control Freak Who Conquered the World’s Most Glamorous Sport: Under Ron Dennis, the McLaren team built a Formula One dynasty by running a racing outfit like a business. Here’s how they did it. (Wall Street Journal)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Sander Gerber, the CEO/CIO of Hudson Bay Capital. The firm is a global multi-strategy investment firm based in Greenwich, with offices in NY, Miami, London, Hong Kong, and Dubai. Founded in June 2005 (with Yoav Roth) they manage $20B in client assets.

 

The U.S. Dollar vs. Your Portfolio

Source: A Wealth of Common Sense

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

US 'Not Serious' About Nuclear Talks After Trump's Secondary Sanctions: Iran

Zero Hedge -

US 'Not Serious' About Nuclear Talks After Trump's Secondary Sanctions: Iran

Via The Cradle

The Iranian Foreign Ministry affirmed on Friday that Tehran is committed to continuing the diplomatic process and negotiations regarding its nuclear program but that it "will not accept pressure and threats that violate international law and target the rights of the Iranian people."

In a statement, the ministry condemned the continued illegal sanctions on Iran and the "pressure on its economic partners," viewing them as "further evidence that the United States is not serious about adopting a diplomatic approach toward Iran."

Via Tehran Times

It also stressed that the continuation of these policies "will not change Iran's firm positions in defending its legitimate rights," and that "testing failed methods will only lead to a repetition of past failures."

The Foreign Ministry went on to say that the Iranian negotiating delegation, during the first three rounds, attempted to "reach a fair agreement that guarantees the rights of the Iranian people, within the specified frameworks that allow Tehran to use peaceful nuclear energy."

Tehran entered indirect negotiations with Washington following US President Donald Trump's letter to Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, to "resolve a fabricated crisis through diplomacy, based on good faith," the statement added.

The Ministry's statement came after Trump announced on Thursday that all purchases of Iranian oil or petrochemical products must stop, warning that any country or individual continuing such trade would face immediate secondary sanctions and be barred from doing business with the US.

"They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form," he wrote on Truth Social on Thursday. Secondary sanctions are a powerful tool for the US because of the size of its economy.

Trump's comments follow the postponement of the latest US talks with Iran over its nuclear program. The Iranian Foreign Ministry announced on Thursday that the fourth round of talks, which were due to take place in Rome on Saturday, had been rescheduled at the suggestion of the Sultanate of Oman for “logistical reasons.”

Sources speaking with Al Mayadeen explained that the postponement came "against the backdrop of the conflicting positions taken by the US administration regarding the talks, and Washington's efforts to change the general framework for negotiations that had been previously agreed upon."

In a related development, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted on Thursday that Iran must "walk away" from both uranium enrichment and the development of long-range missiles

"They have to walk away from sponsoring terrorists, they have to walk away from helping the Houthis (in Yemen), they have to walk away from building long-range missiles that have no purpose to exist other than having nuclear weapons, and they have to walk away from enrichment," Rubio said in an interview with Fox News. 

His comments came as the fourth round of nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington, set to take place in Rome on Saturday, were postponed. 

An Iranian official cited by Reuters said a new date for the talks would be set "depending on the US approach." Tehran has repeatedly affirmed that both its uranium enrichment and its defense capabilities are non-negotiable in the talks with the US.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 23:25

One In Four Young People In The World Feels Lonely

Zero Hedge -

One In Four Young People In The World Feels Lonely

A study by Gallup and Meta, "The Global State of Social Connections," highlights just how prevalent loneliness is today. 

The survey, which interviewed people aged 15+ in 142 countries from June 2022 to February 2023, provides insight on the prevalence of loneliness in different age groups.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, globally, 25 percent of respondents between 15 and 18 years old feel "very lonely" or "fairly lonely." 

This is even higher among those aged 19 to 29, with 27 percent of participants experiencing significant levels of loneliness. 

Respondents aged over 65 show a lower rate of loneliness, with only 17 percent reporting significant levels of isolation.

 One in Four Young People in the World Feels Lonely | Statista 

You will find more infographics at Statista

While the coronavirus pandemic increased the feeling of isolation for many people, this data suggests that loneliness continues to afflict a high number of people, even now lockdowns have passed. 

Loneliness can have serious health implications, with social isolation having been linked to an increased risk of several chronic diseases, such as diabetes and dementia, as well as mental health disorders including anxiety and depression.

Regarding the reasons why people may feel alone, the study clarifies that the data collected "contributes to explaining how people feel, but it is necessary to continue researching to find out why."

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 23:00

War Between The US And Canada - Is It Now A Real Possibility?

Zero Hedge -

War Between The US And Canada - Is It Now A Real Possibility?

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

Reality is absolutely downstream from fiction. Did the creators of South Park predict the future in their 1999 comedy film? I think we’re all suddenly realizing that prognostication is easy – Simply imagine the most absurd scenario possible and eventually it’s going to come true because we’re living in clown world.

A war between Canada and the US opening up a portal to hell might be a bit of a stretch, but recent events lead me to believe that there are very real ingredients coming together that could trigger an active conflict with our neighbors to the north. Furthermore, these factors do NOT necessarily revolve around the trade war; the trade war is secondary.

There is something explosive going on under the surface of US/Canada relations and it could very well end with a US invasion to the north.

Most conservatives have viewed Trump’s rhetoric on Canada becoming the 51st state as a joke or a troll. At least, initially. Trump himself said it was a joke in the beginning, but now he thinks it might be a good idea. For today, lets imagine that this is a real agenda for the Trump Administration and consider the pros and cons.

The Cons

1) Trump looks like an “empire builder” which is widely considered poor form in the 21st Century. Most conservatives prefer that America stick to the American sphere and deal with American problems first before trying to change the geopolitical landscape.

2) An annexation of Canada would mean welcoming millions of Canadian leftists into the US as voting citizens. Who knows how this would affect the election demographics. It’s better to leave Canada as a steam valve so that leftist LEAVE the US and live there instead. America has been suffering under the weight of increasing progressive control, and now that we are finally turning the tide we don’t want to screw it up by importing a bunch of socialists from across the border.

3) On the global stage, the leftist establishment will claim that any US expansion is proof of a rising “fascist regime”. Not that most Americans really care what the rest of the world thinks, but we do still have to engage in diplomacy and alliances and trade to a point. The more the fascism narrative grows the harder it will be to engage with other countries on civil terms, fair or not fair.

The Pros

1) The US already pays for Canada’s defense anyway. Their proximity to us keeps them safe from invasion. Their defense budget is a tiny $27 billion, compared to America’s $997 billion. Their military is minuscule, with 63,000 active members and 22,000 reserve compared to America’s 2.86 million active duty troops and nearly 800,000 in reserve.

Canada has never needed an army because the US is their daddy. If Canada was annexed, the billions expended to keep the country safe would make more sense in our modern post-cold war era.

2) Though there is a risk of bringing millions of leftists into US citizenship if Canada became the 51st state, there is also a good chance most of those people would leave the country and move overseas. Frankly, the less leftists reside in North America, the better off we all will be, and taking Canada might run them all off to another part of the world.

3) Bringing Canada into the fold would make tariffs unnecessary, allow for more efficient resource development and help dig Canada out of the desperate economic slump they are currently trapped in. But an even more important factor is keeping Canada out of the hands of the globalists within the European Union, who have been courting the nation for years and seeking far closer political ties. In military strategy this is called “area denial”.

The War Scenario

This brings us to what I believe is a potential build-up to war between the US and our neighbor. The election of Mark Carney basically seals the deal.

The former central banker is a notorious high ranking member of the World Economic Forum and a devout globalist. He has called for a global digital currency system and supports the cashless society concept. He will no doubt increase tensions with the US on every front from trade to border controls and he WILL get friendly with governments that are hostile to America.

Upon his election win his first act was to attack the US and Trump, hinting at closer connections with the EU, not to mention refusing to negotiate on trade.

The EU issue, I believe, is a hot spark in a hay bale. As I’ve noted in recent articles, the EU is without any doubt going full blown authoritarian because they know they can. The vast majority of Europeans are disarmed making any rebellion much more difficult.

They are locking up political opponents and citizens that speak out. They are instituting a vast online censorship apparatus. They are importing millions of third world migrants that can be used as enforcers to keep the native population in line. They are openly talking about forced military conscription and are courting the idea of war with Russia.

European governments are the enemy of all free people. This can only lead to bloody conflict in the future.

By extension, Mark Carney, head of the Bank of England from 2013 to 2020, has deep connections to the European elites and is loyal to the WEF. I would not be surprised if he immediately organizes a campaign for Canada to join the EU, or, creates policies which give the EU a geopolitical foothold in North America. The union’s treaty currently requires that a country be a geographical part of Europe before it can join. There are also a number of obstacles for inclusion, but as we have seen with Ukraine, the EU is happy to bend or change the rules if it suits them.

If membership is formed or a defense pact signed, the EU’s ongoing plan to create a “European Army” would then extend to Canada and put the US and Canada/Europe in a framework for escalation. Canada is working on such a defense deal with the EU right now.

It’s important to understand that this war would start out as economic and quickly become ideological. The progressives believe that populist, nationalist and conservative movements are a “threat to democracy” (which means they are a threat to the globalist order). They view American conservatives as the last obstacle to their “Great Reset” (an agenda which Carney avidly supports) and they will do everything in their power to remove that obstacle.

Carney WILL invite the EU to take a more active role in Canadian affairs and seek out their “protection”, economically as well as strategically. This would only exacerbate the diplomatic situation with the US and invite an American invasion.

The tariffs will become perpetual under Carney because it’s unlikely he will seek honest negotiations. Rather, he will seek to provoke. Around 76% of Canada’s exports are sold to the US and there is no realistic replacement for this market. Canada does not have the means to ship their goods overseas without raising prices exponentially. They would lose their competitive trade advantage. Around 30% of Canada’s GDP relies on export sales. Canada’s economy will be destroyed by long term tariffs.

This will inevitably lead to extra-economic retaliation; meaning, Canada will seek a means to hurt the US beyond reciprocal tariffs because tariffs will not help them. They will try to cut off oil exports to the US even though they have no alternative buyers. They will cut off the hydropower that they sell to states like New York, Minnesota and Michigan. They will try to interfere with US shipping lanes that cross into Canadian controlled waters (Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Seaway).

Again, this would elicit a war response from the US and victory would be swift. The existing Canadian government would have zero chance of staying in power.

For those that think a conflict with Canada sounds ridiculous, I would remind them that times are changing rapidly. What you might think of as the status quo for geopolitics today is over. As globalism breaks apart we are entering the wild west, so saddle up and sack up. There’s no room for normalcy bias anymore.

I predict that within the next two years there will be serious talk of portions of Canada (like Alberta) seceding over to the US as Carney crushes citizens with carbon taxation, increased censorship, continued mass immigration and gun bans. The new Primer Minister will make every effort to make Canada as draconian as Europe.

More progressive parts of Canada will pursue EU membership. And, the idea of war will not sound so crazy anymore. In fact, I suspect it will be a common debate around the average American and Canadian dinner table.

Again, with a globalist ghoul like Mark Carney in control of Canada the chances for heightened tensions are immense and unfortunately a large enough percentage of Canadians are gullible enough to follow his lead thinking they can win. Make no mistake, a war with the globalists is brewing and Canada is currently leaning globalist. This might very well mean a conflagration between Americans and Canadians in the near future.

*  *  *

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Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 22:35

These Are All The Things People Use AI For In 2025

Zero Hedge -

These Are All The Things People Use AI For In 2025

Thought leaders dubbed ChatGPT’s emergence - and subsequent generative AI proliferation - as the “fourth industrial age.”

Whether it will re-shape the economy entirely still remains to be seen. But there’s no denying that most people are familiar with, and are actively using AI.

What are they using it for?

This ranking tracks the most popular AI use cases as sourced from an analysis done by Marc Zao-Sanders for Harvard Business Review. He examined thousands of forum posts over the last year in a follow-up to his 2024 analysis.

The top 30 ranks from this report have been visualized in this graphic via Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao. Labels have been edited lightly from the source for readability. 

This visualization is part of Visual Capitalist’s AI Week, sponsored by Terzo.

Here’s How Everyone is Using AI in 2025

People are using AI for support (both professional and personal) in 2025

In fact, the top three use cases (therapy, life organization, and finding purpose) all show that AI can assist humans in managing both emotions and their life.

2024 Use Case Category 2025 Use Case Category 1 Generate Ideas Content
Creation 1 Therapy & Companionship Support 2 Therapy & Companionship Support 2 Organize Life Support 3 Specific Search Research
& Analysis 3 Find Purpose Support 4 Edit text Content
Creation 4 Enhance Learning Learning &
Education 5 Explore Interests Learning &
Education 5 Generate Code Technical
Assistance 6 Fun & Nonsense Creativity &
Recreation 6 Generate Ideas Content
Creation 7 Troubleshoot Technical
Assistance 7 Fun & Nonsense Creativity &
Recreation 8 Enhance Learning Learning &
Education 8 Improve Code Technical
Assistance 9 Personalize Learning Learning &
Education 9 Creativity Content
Creation 10 General advice Support 10 Healthy Living Support 11 Draft emails Content
Creation 11 Interview Preparation Learning &
Education 12 Explainers Learning &
Education 12 Generate Images Creativity &
Recreation 13 Write & Edit Résumé Support 13 Specific Search Research
& Analysis 14 Excel Formulas Technical
Assistance 14 Explainers Learning &
Education 15 Email Writing Content
Creation 15 Cooking Guidance Creativity &
Recreation 16 Evaluate Copy Research
& Analysis 16 Troubleshoot Technical
Assistance 17 Improve Decisions Research
& Analysis 17 Personalize Learning Learning &
Education 18 Translation Technical
Assistance 18 Boost Confidence Support 19 Improve Code Technical
Assistance 19 Email Writing Content
Creation 20 Draft Document Content
Creation 20 Explain Legalese Technical
Assistance 21 Navigate
Personal Disputes Support 21 Child Entertainment Creativity &
Recreation 22 Summarize Content Learning &
Education 22 Corporate LLM Support 23 Make a Complaint Support 23 Student Essays Learning &
Education 24 Recommendations Creativity &
Recreation 24 Travel Itinerary Support 25 Cooking Guidance Creativity &
Recreation 25 Childcare Help Creativity &
Recreation 26 Generate Appraisals Content
Creation 26 Medical Advice Support 27 Creativity Content
Creation 27 Navigate Personal Disputes Support 28 Medical Advice Support 28 Generate Legal Document Content
Creation 29 Generate
Legal Document Content
Creation 29 Conversations Support 30 Fix Code Technical
Assistance 30 Anti-trolling Content
Creation

And aside from therapy, these were not the top uses in 2024: which revolved around idea generation and search.

Speaking of AI search, its popularity has fallen 10 spots. People are still interested in learning and making AI explain concepts or add context for them. But they’re not actively looking up information as much.

(This may also be because of Gemini’s integration in Google Search).

AI For Mental Health: Good or Bad?

With mental health support severely underfunded and the Loneliness Epidemic only continuing, it’s no surprise AI has emerged as a viable outlet for people to get some support in their life.

Experts say they can see its usefulness for teaching mindfulness or cognitive behavioral therapy to users.

However, the problem occurs when AI is used as a replacement for actual human relationships, preventing deeper human connections, in turn exacerbating loneliness.

Need More AI Insights? From our AI Week coverage, brought to you by Terzo, check out the Countries Accumulating the Most AI Patents and much more on the AI content hub and discover where the future of AI is going to emerge.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 22:10

More Climate Litigation Silliness From Academia

Zero Hedge -

More Climate Litigation Silliness From Academia

Authored by Jonathan Lesser via RealClearEnergy,

A recent article published in Nature claims that climate liability lawsuits, such as the ones various U.S. states and municipalities continue to pursue, are on rock-solid legal grounds, thanks to the authors’ new research “proving” that the world would be $28 trillion richer today but for carbon emissions from fossil fuels over a 30-year period, 1991 -2020. Ignoring the emissions from developing countries, notably China, which today accounts for one-third of all energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the authors focus instead on oil companies, which they call the “carbon majors” – especially Saudi Aramco, Chevron, ExxonMobil, BP, and Gasprom.

For example, according to the authors Chevron has caused an estimated $2 trillion in damages, and perhaps as much as $3.6 trillion. Exxon Mobil is right behind at $1.9 trillion. Similarly, Saudi Aramco and Gazprom are each responsible for $2 trillion in damages. BP is the laggard, at just under $1.5 trillion in damages. Levying fines of those amounts, which greatly exceed these companies’ market values, would lead to their immediate bankruptcy. While the authors may consider such an outcome a “win,” bankrupting these companies would not change the physical and economic realities that the world depends on fossil fuels and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. (Moreover, it is not clear who would levy the fines and who would receive the monies received – other than trial lawyers.)

To derive their damage estimates, the authors combine bad science with bad economics. First, they use simplified climate models to predict what average world temperatures would have been had there been no GHG emissions from fossil fuels. Next, they use other models to determine how many fewer extreme heat events, which they define as the hottest five days of each year, there would have been absent GHG emissions from fossil fuels. Finally, they calculate the damages in terms of lost GDP based on a simplistic regression model that assumes lost GDP increases in proportion to the square of temperature increases, and which ignores the myriad other economic factors that affect economic growth. They justify this absurd specification, which has no economic basis, on “peer-reviewed research” – a previous article they published.

The approach used by these authors is a form of “attribution science,” which attempts to link specific weather-related events to GHG emissions. That approach, which was first developed about two decades ago to attribute a 2003 European heat wave to climate change, is statistical legerdemain that depends on counterfactual models, just as the authors use here.

Ironically, the authors acknowledge the benefits of fossil fuels, stating that “fossil fuels have also produced immense prosperity.” Yet, they purposefully ignore those benefits because, as they state, “these companies have already been handsomely paid.” This latter statement reveals further economic ignorance. Without fossil fuels, modern life would be impossible. The benefits of fossil fuels to modern society are probably incalculable, but they far exceed the profits these companies have made, and far exceed the damage estimates the authors calculate.

The authors claim that fossil fuel damages are what economists call an “externality” and that “Courts may need to consider how the benefits of energy use are balanced against its externalities and the potential duty of care these companies have to the public.” (They also raise the discredited claim that oil companies “knew” about climate change and hid the evidence from the public.)

Externalities are a real phenomenon of energy development and use. But in this case the externalities are unobservable and instead estimated based on theoretical models having little accuracy. Moreover, levying penalties to “internalize” an externality that would cause far greater economic losses is unjustified.

Ultimately, this article is simply an advocacy piece for specious lawsuits against oil companies with deep financial pockets. Nature should be ashamed of itself for publishing it.

Jonathan Lesser is a Senior Fellow with the National Center for Energy Analytics. His report, “The Social Cost of Carbon: A Flawed Measure for Energy Policy,” was released on April 23.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 21:45

Stocks Recover All Losses Since Liberation Day

Pension Pulse -

Sean Conlon and Hakyung Kim of CNBC report Dow jumps 500 points, S&P 500 posts longest win streak in 20 years as stocks claw back tariff losses:

Stocks rose on Friday as Wall Street digested a better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report for April, which eased recession fears and lifted the S&P 500 for its longest winning streak in just over two decades.

The S&P 500 advanced 1.47% and closed at 5,686.67. This marked the broad market index’s ninth consecutive day of gains and its longest winning run since November 2004. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 564.47 points, or 1.39%, to end at 41,317.43. The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.51% and settled at 17,977.73.

With Friday’s surge, the S&P 500 has now recovered its losses since April 2, when President Donald Trump announced his “reciprocal” tariffs. This comes a day after the tech-heavy Nasdaq accomplished the same feat.

Payrolls grew by 177,000 in April, above the 133,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated. That figure was still down sharply from the 228,000 added in March but much better than feared after recession worries ramped up last month. The unemployment rate stood at 4.2%, in line with expectations.

“Markets breathed a sigh of relief this morning as the jobs data came in better than expected,” said Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management. “While recession fears are still simmering on the back burner, the buy-the-dip dynamic can continue – at least until the tariff pause runs out.”

Investors were already upbeat prior to the strong jobs report after China said that it is evaluating the possibility of starting trade negotiations with the U.S. Still, Chinese authorities reaffirmed their belief that the U.S. should remove all unilateral tariffs, saying in a statement that “if the U.S. wants to talk, it should show its sincerity and be prepared to correct its wrong practices and cancel the unilateral tariffs.” Later in the day, a report from The Wall Street Journal suggested that Beijing is open to trade talks.

The Street was also mulling over earnings reports from two “Magnificent Seven” members. Apple slid 3.7% after posting fiscal second-quarter revenue from its services division that fell short against analyst estimates. Additionally, the iPhone maker said it expects to add $900 million in costs in the current quarter due to tariffs. Amazon shares, meanwhile, were marginally lower after the company issued light guidance, highlighting “tariffs and trade policies” as factors.

“We’ve already seen how financial markets will react if the administration moves forward with their initial tariff plan, so unless they take a different tack in July when the 90-day pause expires, we will see market action similar to the first week of April,” Zaccarelli also said.

Stocks have made an incredible comeback since Trump announced last month that’s he’s temporarily reducing his new tariff rates for most countries to 10% for 90 days. The market has especially picked up steam lately, leading to the S&P 500′s winning streak, as solid earnings have come out.

All three major averages posted their second positive week in a row. The S&P 500 added 2.9%, sitting more than 7% below its February high after at one point being down nearly 20%. The Dow posted a 3% advance on the week, while the Nasdaq added 3.4%.

‘We’ve passed peak tariff tantrum,’ InfraCap’s Jay Hatfield says

The recent sell-off spurred by worries around President Donald Trump’s tariff plans may be over, said Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors.

“We think we’ve passed peak tariff tantrum,” the firm’s chief executive said in an interview with CNBC, adding that he has a year-end target on the S&P 500 of 6,600. That implies nearly 18% upside from Thursday’s close.

Hatfield also thinks there’s going to be a summer rally once the market gets through a “seasonally weak” May-to-June period. That said, he doesn’t believe the S&P 500 will rally past the 6,000 level until most concerns among investors have been resolved.

“We think there’s three areas of uncertainties, not just tariffs but also Fed policy and tax policy,” he added. “We don’t think we’re going to bust significantly above 6,000 until we get at least two of those three pretty well defined.”

It was a very strong week in the stock market led by mega cap tech stocks like Microsoft and Meta which posted solid earnings:


 

But the real story again this year is Palantir which was up over 300% last year and is flying high once again this year:


Incredibly, Palantir shares hit a low of $66 on April 7th and have since ripped higher and are right on the cusp of making a new 52-week high.

All this action spurred the Nasdaq higher this week but it's still off its 52-week high:

 

Nonetheless., all the talk of tariffs, recession, the end of American exceptionalism looks silly when you look at the S&P 500 which has now recovered all its losses since Liberation Day (April 2nd). 


However, the US dollar remains weak and some claim there's more downside to go (I'm not in that camp and believe the selloff in the US dollar was way overdone):

More worrisome, long maturity US Treasuries are also struggling to rally as investors weigh the real possibility of stagflation ahead: 


Also, despite the recent selloff which I foresaw, gold shares remain in a solid uptrend:


Not surprisingly, when you look at the top performing US large cap stocks, gold shares figure prominently (a few Canadian gold companies there) but it's a mixed bag with Palantir and biotechs I track closely like Verona Pharma, Summit therapeutics and TG Therapeutics. 

 

Apart from a few stocks however, biotech shares remain well off their 52-week high even after rallying massively the last couple of weeks:


Still, I see a few great opportunities in biotech as long as RISK ON markets gain traction but you really need to dig deep, pick your spots and know the companies and risks very well.

The big question that still persists is whether there is a slowdown in the US economy and are we in a recession.

This week, the US economy contracted for first time since 2022 as imports surged but today's US jobs report showed defied expectations as nonfarm payrolls increased a seasonally adjusted 177,000 for the month, slightly below the downwardly revised 185,000 in March but above the Dow Jones estimate for 133,000. 

The unemployment rate, however, stayed at 4.2%, as expected, indicating that the labor market is holding relatively stable.

The jury is still out in terms of recession but some indicators like housing activity are already pointing to one and I would encourage my institutional readers to listen to Francois Trahan's latest conference call entitled "It's Different This Time...Legitimately!".

Francois thinks all roads lead to stagflation and things will come to fruition in the second half of the year. 

Alright, let me wrap this up and post some great interviews below.

First, Nicolai Tangen, the head of Norway’s $1.8 trillion sovereign wealth fund, discusses the outlook for global markets amid recent trade policy upheaval and what that means for the fund's US investments. He talks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua in Oslo.

Tangen also spoke to CNBC International discussing investments in the US at the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund's annual investment conference.

Third, Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, joined 'Closing Bell' on Thursday to discuss what markets need to see to indicate a more sustained recovery from April's lows, if the equity rally is sustainable, and much more.

Fourth, Adam Parker, Trivariate Research founder, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the most recent news that sticks out to Parker the most, investor's attitude towards equity markets, and much more.

Fifth, David Zervos, Jefferies chief market strategist, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss outlooks on tech.

Sixth, Bob Elliott, Unlimited CEO and Adam Kobeissi, The Kobeissi Letter editor-in-chief, join 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss market rally, their outlook for stocks and Fed day.

Seventh, Jeremy Siegel, Wharton School professor of finance, joins CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss market outlooks.

Lastly, Bill Smead, Smead Capital Management, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the mood in Omaha ahead of Berkshire Hathaway's annual investor meeting, the market opportunities, and much more.

How Daily Incomes Have Changed In Top Economies Over The Past 30 Years

Zero Hedge -

How Daily Incomes Have Changed In Top Economies Over The Past 30 Years

The mid-1990s feel like a different world. In the 30 years since, the global economy has shifted dramatically, across sectors and markets.

But headline stats like GDP, GDP per capita, or growth rates don’t always reflect what’s happening at the individual level.

So, has life actually improved over time?

To help answer that, Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao visualizes figures from Our World in Data to show how daily median incomes have changed in 20 of the world’s largest economies from 1994 to 2024.

All figures are in PPP-adjusted International dollars per person. They are also adjusted for inflation, taxes, and benefits.

ℹ️ PPP-adjusted International dollars reflect purchasing power by accounting for local prices and cost of living.

Important note: #4 Japan, #11 South Korea, and #19 Saudi Arabia are excluded due to missing data. Poland, Taiwan, and Belgium are included in their place.

Countries by GDP, Daily Median Incomes, and Income Growth

There’s two different takeaways from this chart. One is which top 20 economies have the highest average incomes in 2024.

The other is where incomes have grown the most.

Note: *Australia’s change is between 1994–2023 due to data restraints.

For example, incomes in China have grown 6x between 1994–2024, after adjusting for inflation. However in 2024 this still only amounted to $12 (international dollars) per person on average.

ℹ️ Per capita income is attributed to all residents including children and retirees. The median income could theoretically be between 2–4x for a working individual.

In other developing countries (Indonesia, Poland, and Türkiye), daily incomes have tripled. Of these three Poland is the only one that’s moved from a low- to high-income country by 2024.

In the U.S., the daily average income has only gone up about 30% over the same period. But the country is second-richest in this dataset, after Switzerland.

How the U.S. Ranks in Income Growth vs. Peer Countries

Interestingly, the U.S. has the least median income growth versus peers like Germany, UK, and France.

In other social metrics, the U.S. is lagging its counterparts. Its life expectancy is a full four years below its high-income counterparts.

And this despite having the highest health expenditure in a similar group.

It also has one of the highest inequality scores amongst its peers.

While a lot of American media is focused on income and wealth inequality, U.S. incomes far outpace many other countries. Check out: Ranked: Daily Incomes of the Richest & Poorest in 25 Countries to see how much richer even the bottom 10% Americans are.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 21:20

California Penal Reform And The Violent Criminals It Let Loose

Zero Hedge -

California Penal Reform And The Violent Criminals It Let Loose

Authored by Ana Kasparian via RealClearInvestigations,

Smiley Martin should have been behind bars. 

A career criminal with a long rap sheet involving firearms, he was given a 10 year sentence in 2018 for punching, dragging and severely beating his girlfriend with a belt. In prison, Martin was found guilty of beating another inmate and engaging in other criminal activity. Nevertheless, he was freed just four years later, thanks to a plea deal that categorized him as a “nonviolent offender” and a California ballot measure that sharply reduced sentences for “good behavior.”

Just two months after his release, Martin and several accomplices, including his brother, were arrested for carrying out the worst mass shooting in Sacramento’s history – leaving six dead and 12 others injured on April 3, 2022. Martin was charged with three counts of murder and illegal possession of a firearm, including a machine gun. He will not stand trial on those charges, since the 29-year-old died in jail of a drug overdose last September.

Martin’s life and death have brought attention to the criminal justice reform that helped put him back on the streets: Proposition 57. The ballot measure was sold to the public in 2016 as a way to relieve the state’s chronically overcrowded prisons by rewarding “nonviolent” offenders for good behavior by shortening their sentences. It was supposed to be a humanitarian answer to what social justice activists described as an epidemic of “mass incarceration.” It has instead put tens of thousands of violent offenders such as Martin back on the streets.

Many of them have been rearrested. The latest Recidivism Report from the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation shows that nearly two thirds (64.2%) of the 34,215 inmates granted early release between July 1, 2019 and June 30, 2020 had been rearrested as of April 2, 2025.

Breaking down the recidivism rate for prisoners within three years of their release, it reported that “22.1% of the release cohort (7,567 individuals) were convicted of a felony offense, and 17.0% (5,828 individuals) were convicted of a misdemeanor offense.” The Department of Corrections also reports almost half the inmates granted early release had not earned any credits for good behavior.

Prop 57 critics are not surprised. In the run-up to the 2016 ballot measure – which was approved with the support of 65% of voters – the measure’s opponents warned that violent criminals like Martin would likely benefit from the initiative.

But they were denounced as scaremongers. When Sacramento County District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert warned that Prop 57 would free perpetrators of domestic violence, then-Gov. Jerry Brown, who was the top proponent for the ballot measure, shot back; “That’s a complete red herring, and it’s very disingenuous of these highly politicized prosecutors to make that claim.” Brown assured voters that each inmate’s crime and behavior in prison would be considered before release was granted. 

While supporters of Prop 57 described it as a humane response to a court order, critics say its proponents misrepresented the bill to secure its passage. At a time when President Trump is putting progressive criminal justice organizations in his crosshairs, the troubled history of Prop 57 highlights the challenges of rehabilitating inmates while also reducing prison overcrowding without building more prisons.

Gov. Jerry Brown's Role 

The single most aggressive advocate for Prop 57 was former Democratic Gov. Brown, who had to contend with the consequences of a sentencing reform he had signed in 1976 during his first stretch as governor, when tough-on-crime measures were enacted. Now decades later, with Brown governor again, California’s prisons were housing nearly double the capacity of inmates they were built for. Facilities were so severely overcrowded that the U.S. Supreme Court found their conditions violated inmates' Eighth Amendment Constitutional protections against cruel and unusual punishment. In May 2011, months following Brown’s inauguration, the court ruled in a split decision that the state must remedy the issue.

In writing for the five-member majority, Justice Anthony Kennedy argued that the state’s prison system was stretched so thin that it failed to provide basic medical care, which, as he wrote, was "incompatible with the concept of human dignity and has no place in a civilized society.” Citing how one prisoner was dying every week due to deficient medical care, Kennedy declared that the courts "must not shrink from their constitutional obligation to enforce the rights of all persons, including prisoners.”

At the prison population’s peak in 2006, more than 165,000 inmates were locked up in a system meant to handle 85,000. But budgetary pressures meant that the state legislature wasn’t willing to allocate the funding necessary to build more space to house inmates. So, the court ordered them to reduce the prison population by 30,000 inmates in order to limit overcrowding to 137% capacity. While there is no specific constitutional level for overcrowding, the majority opted to give California a little more wiggle room than the 130% capacity recommended by the Federal Bureau of Prisons.

Brown, eager to get federal oversight off his back, joined the state legislature and sprung into action with the passage of AB109, which transferred inmates from crowded state detention facilities into county jails. But some county jails were riddled with the same problems and lacked the capacity to house an influx of inmates. With resources stretched thin, counties began releasing criminals years before they served their sentences. 

By 2014, a Los Angeles Times investigation found more than 13,500 inmates were being released early from county jails each month across the state. Although the public was assured that only those who posed little danger were let go, data shows that some counties completely halted incarceration of those convicted of crimes like domestic violence and child abuse. 

The early release of convicted sex offender Sidney DeAvila was one particularly gruesome example of the unintended consequences of AB109. After DeAvila was let out early from San Joaquin County Jail in February 2013, he went on to rape, kill and dismember his 76-year-old grandmother.

Undeterred by the impact AB109 had on public safety, Brown later campaigned for Prop 47, a 2014 ballot measure that was advertised to Californians as simply lowering penalties for nonviolent crimes like petty theft and drug possession. But the public was left in the dark about how the measure would also lower penalties for car thieves, drug traffickers and open-air drug markets. 

Nevertheless, Brown began promoting additional reforms aimed at lowering California’s prison population.

Officially known as the Public Safety and Rehabilitation Act of 2016, Prop 57 would, according to Brown, address the state’s prison overcrowding problem while keeping communities safe. Brown pitched the measure as an enlightened step that “orients the prison toward rehabilitation” while appreciating the human capacity for change. “All of us learn. I’ve learned in 40 years,” Brown said at the time. “I think prisoners can learn.” 

But Brown also assured voters there were limits to his progressive vision. He repeatedly noted the ballot measure’s language that only people “convicted of a nonviolent felony offense and sentenced to state prison shall be eligible for parole consideration after completing the full term for his or her primary offense.”  Brown told the Mercury News newspaper in 2016 that“we had planned to offer parole to violent offenders, but we took that out.”

Brown estimated that only about 1,100 prisoners per year would qualify for the program. Prosecutors who opposed the measure in the run-up to the vote also underestimated the number of beneficiaries when they pegged it at 16,000.   

Critics, including some law enforcement groups, district attorneys, and victims’ advocates, argue that Brown’s miscalculation was part of an effort to mislead voters about Prop 57’s reach. Despite repeated assurances that violent criminals would not qualify for early release under the measure, the legislature's previous crime reclassification efforts meant that only 23 specific crimes – such as murder, rape, arson and carjacking – were considered offenses that would disqualify prisoners from the measure’s benefits. Many crimes the public would consider violent, including Smiley Martin severely beating his girlfriend, are not included on that list.

“Dozens of serious crimes would be considered non-violent for parole purposes,” warned CalMatters columnist Dan Walters, including “assault with a deadly weapon, soliciting murder, intimidating or harming a crime victim or witness, resisting arrest that injures a police officer, violent elder or child abuse, arson with injury, human trafficking and several forms of manslaughter.”

Plea bargains also make some violent criminals eligible for early release. Martin, for example, was originally charged with kidnapping, which is identified as a violent offense in the penal code. But that charge was withdrawn in his deal.

Brown also assured voters that felons who had been convicted of various sexual crimes would not be considered for early release. However, rape of an unconscious person, sex trafficking and even the trafficking of children for sex are not considered violent felonies according to California’s Penal Code. In confirming the deceptive criminal classifications in the state, Attorney General Rob Bonta told CalMatters that these crimes “should be discussed and potentially changed under whatever the appropriate means is for Prop 57.” 

The state legislature agreed with Bonta on the prosecution of child sex predators. Soliciting minors under the age of 16 for sex was considered a misdemeanor in California up until September 2024, when Gov. Gavin Newsom finally signed legislation reclassifying it as a felony with tougher penalties. Previously, soliciting a minor for sex, or paying for it, was simply a misdemeanor punishable by two days in jail and a $10,000 fine.

In 2021, California’s Supreme Court weighed in on Prop 57 and unanimously sided with those who had argued that Brown falsely portrayed the measure’s reach. In writing the unanimous decision, Chief Justice Tani Cantil-Sakauye stated that “there are portions of [Prop 57’s] opponents’ argument that the [Corrections] Department must concede were correct, including the characterization that individuals convicted of and currently serving sentences for offenses … like assault with a deadly weapon would be eligible for nonviolent offender parole consideration, or that an individual with a prior violent felony conviction for murder would not be excluded from nonviolent offender parole consideration.”

The Chief Justice addressed how perpetrators of serious sex crimes were also qualifying for early release under the measure. She wrote that “the initiative’s language provides no indication that the voters intended to allow the [Corrections] Department to create a wholesale exclusion from parole consideration based on an inmate’s sex offense convictions when the inmate was convicted of a nonviolent felony.”

While the Court didn’t mention Gov. Brown by name, his promotion of the ballot measure was subtly cited by the Chief Justice. “Had the drafters of Proposition 57, and by extension the voters, intended to exclude inmates from nonviolent offender parole consideration based on prior or current sex offense convictions,” the Chief Justice wrote, “it would have been a simple matter to say so explicitly.”

The court’s ruling made little difference, because mere weeks before its decision, voters overwhelmingly rejected another poorly written ballot measure that was supposed to close the violent crime loophole in Prop 57. The measure, known as Proposition 20, sought to alter Prop 57 by denying early release to perpetrators of violent crimes that had not been listed in the California Penal Code. 

However, the measure was misleadingly described as limiting “access to parole programs established for nonviolent offenders.” In other words, there was a fundamental problem with using the word “nonviolent” to describe the gaps in Prop 57 that the measure sought to remedy. Most voters were unaware that the state penal code listed violent crimes like the rape of a unconscious person as nonviolent offenses. So, they were under the impression that Prop 20 sought to impose harsh punishments for petty crimes, which many in liberal California are against. 

Prop 20’s timing may have also led to its demise. Voters decided on the measure in the aftermath of George Floyd’s 2020 murder while in the custody of Minneapolis police and the country was amid what many referred to as a “racial reckoning.” The country, and especially liberal states like California, were less interested in public safety and more open to criminal justice reforms due to concerns over mass incarceration and what they saw as racist policing.

Credit Where Credit Wasn’t Due

Even if voters had been aware that those found guilty of trafficking children or strangling their wives would still be eligible for early release under Prop 57, no one was under the impression that felons would have their sentences cut short without enrolling in rehabilitation programs or earning good behavior credits. However, the latest CDCR report discloses that of the 34,215 inmates who were released early in fiscal year 2019, 13,833 did not earn any enhanced behavior credits to justify a reduction in their prison sentence. Some 44% of those who didn’t earn any credits would be convicted of a new crime following their release.

Even more damning is that the CDCR’s report concedes that the state released “high risk” inmates who are more likely to reoffend. Based on the California Static Risk Assessment (CSRA), a tool used to calculate the risk of a parolee committing a new crime, “high, moderate, and low-risk individuals recidivate at about 60 percent, 40 percent, and 20 percent, respectively.” Yet in fiscal year 2019, “approximately 41.2 percent of individuals in the release cohort have a high-risk score according to the CSRA.”

Indeed, many of the inmates who were released under Prop 57 in 2019 went on to reoffend and get convicted of new crimes (44.0%). However, there were fewer convictions for those who did earn rehabilitative credits in prison (35.8%). 

Of the 39.1% of parolees in fiscal year 2019 who were convicted of other crimes within the first three years of their release, 22.1% were for felonies and 17% for misdemeanors. But only 17.4% of the convicted felons returned to prison. Even so, according to the report, “the percentage of individuals returned for crimes against persons increased by 2.9 percentage points, the largest increase of any return type.”

While overcrowding was the very issue that led to measures like Prop 57, state officials have shuttered several state prisons in recent years. Four were closed in 2021 alone, and it appears that state officials are intentionally avoiding prison time for convicts because their objective is to close more for fiscal and ideological reasons. 

A local Los Angeles publication reported last spring that “because of the declining inmate headcount, California can close up to five more of its 33 prisons and eight yards within operating prisons while still complying with a federal court order that caps the system’s capacity.”  According to the Legislative Analyst’s Office, the state could save up to $1 billion a year by doing so. The cost to the public’s safety when there’s nowhere to detain perpetrators of violent crimes was not factored into its analysis. 

By November 2024, many Californians were fed up. More than 65% of Alameda County voters approved the recall of Oakland’s progressive District Attorney Pamela Price. Similarly, Los Angeles denied a second term to D.A. George Gascon, another criminal justice reformer. Gascon was replaced with his tough-on-crime challenger Nathan Hochman. Finally, nearly 70% of voters approved Proposition 36, which would reverse an earlier ballot measure that weakened punishments for certain offenses like shoplifting and drug crimes, including trafficking. 

Gov. Gavin Newsom was, and still is, vehemently against Prop 36, citing the financial burden of holding criminals accountable in one of the highest taxed states in the country. Nonetheless, Prop 36 is “an unfunded mandate” that will “set this state back,” according to Newsom. After all, if drug traffickers and repeat smash-and-grab thieves are met with harsher punishments like prison time, the spotlight would be on Newsom for preemptively closing the very facilities necessary to serve their sentences.

In a recent interview, Los Angeles Police Department Chief Jim McDonnell expressed frustration over serving the public safety demands of the community with less prison space available. “While the [District Attorney] will file cases that are now available to us through Prop 36, you still have a jail system that is decreasing in size continuously,” McDonnell stated. “When I was Sheriff, there were 18,000 beds available [in Los Angeles County]. It’s now down to 12,400,” he continued. Chief McDonnell argues that the lack of beds is the reason many offenders are back on the streets “without the resources or rehabilitation that we would have liked to have seen.”

While Gov. Newsom has claimed that he “absolutely will implement the will of the voters,” following the passage of Prop 36, the state legislature has refused to allocate the funding necessary to implement it. The truth is, even if the state’s lawmakers provided the money, Californians would still have a mountain to climb with all the various ways the state has chipped away at public safety, including Prop 57, crime reclassifications and prison closures.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 20:55

RFK Jr. Says New Parents Should "Do Your Own Research" Into Vaccines

Zero Hedge -

RFK Jr. Says New Parents Should "Do Your Own Research" Into Vaccines

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has advised new parents to research vaccines recommended for their children, as he also disclosed that health officials are looking into how some children start experiencing symptoms of autism shortly after vaccination.

During an April 28 town hall with Phil McGraw, also known as Dr. Phil, a mother asked Kennedy what his advice would be to new mothers with regard to vaccines.

“I would say that we live in a democracy, and part of the responsibility of being a parent is to do your own research,” Kennedy said. 

“You research the baby stroller, you research the foods that they’re getting, and you need to research the medicines that they’re taking as well.”

Kennedy, who heads the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), said before becoming health secretary that no vaccines are safe. 

During his confirmation hearings, he described himself as “pro-safety” and not “anti-vaccine.” 

“I believe vaccines have saved millions of lives and play a critical role in health care,” he said at one point.

About one-third of respondents to a Gallup survey in 2021 said that they do their own research when their doctor gives them important medical advice.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which is part of HHS, currently recommends that children receive 12 vaccine doses in their first four months of life, and dozens more before they become adults. Many of the vaccines are required to attend school.

The CDC’s last report on the four required vaccinations found that coverage declined between the 2019–2020 and 2022–2023 school years, while the exemption rate increased.

Additionally, just 13 percent of children have received the currently available COVID-19 vaccines, according to CDC data.

Kennedy confirmed during the town hall that he’s considering removing COVID-19 vaccines from the childhood vaccination schedule.

“We’re seeing a lot of adverse events from the vaccine—particularly in children—myocarditis, pericarditis, even strokes. ... American people are trusting us to make a good risk-benefit judgment when we recommend these products, and we need to go back and look at that recommendation,” he said.

Kennedy also said that officials are examining whether there is a link between autism and vaccines.

A woman asked Kennedy to explain how the ingredients in the measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine can cause inflammation of the brain and autism.

“We’re in the process of researching all those questions. That’s something—because it’s so often reported by parents and physicians, that chain of events, where somebody ... goes in for their 16-month or wellness visit, and they get the MMR and maybe a number of other vaccines at the same time,” Kennedy said.

“Many of them, many of the parents have reported that their kid, that their child developed autism immediately after the vaccine—so that’s something that we’re looking at right now.”

The Vaccine Injury Compensation Program has identified some cases of vaccine-induced brain injuries, and some vaccine experts have said there’s evidence that vaccines can cause autism. Others have said there is no link. The CDC states on its website that studies “show that vaccines are not associated with ASD,” or autism spectrum disorder.

The rate of autism, a disorder whose symptoms include difficulty learning, has been increasing in recent years. Officials said in April that the rate was up to one in 31 children, and Kennedy has vowed to identify the causes.

Kennedy on April 28 also reiterated his stance that health officials recommend receipt of the MMR vaccine to lower the risk of contracting measles, amid several outbreaks in the United States. However, he also said that the MMR vaccine has problems and that officials are studying it.

“The problem is really with the mumps portion of the vaccine and the combination, and it was never safety-tested—that combination was never safety-tested,” Kennedy said. 

“And people just assume that if three separate vaccines were safe, and when you combine them, they would also be safe. But we now know there’s some viral interference and the combination vaccine seemed to be linked to a lot of adverse events that they were not getting from the separate vaccines.”

The CDC’s website states that the MMR vaccine typically protects people against measles and rubella for life, “but immunity against mumps may decrease over time.”

Possible side effects include a mild rash and high fever that could cause a seizure.

Dr. Monica Gandhi, associate chief of the University of California, San Francisco’s Division of HIV, Infectious Diseases, and Global Medicine, told The Epoch Times in an email that the MMR vaccine does work for mumps.

“The vaccine is safe and efficacious,” she said, encouraging parents to take their children to receive the shot.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 20:05

Renovation Of Philly's 30th Street Station Became A Multi-Million Dollar Hotbed Of Corruption, Bribes, & Overbilling Amtrak

Zero Hedge -

Renovation Of Philly's 30th Street Station Became A Multi-Million Dollar Hotbed Of Corruption, Bribes, & Overbilling Amtrak

As is the case anytime government is involved in a project funded with taxpayer cash, things are moving slowly and corruptly with Philadelphia's renovation of its 30th St. Station. It's a restoration that has been underway for the better part of a decade and is showing little to no signs of progress from the station's exterior. 

In 2018, Amtrak proudly showcased progress on the $109 million restoration of Philadelphia’s historic station. “This is an iconic building in Philadelphia, and making it beautiful is going to increase the citizens’ pride,” project manager Ajith Bhaskaran told reporters. He called the work “a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.”

What Bhaskaran didn’t say was that he had turned that opportunity into a personal payday — a bribery scheme involving luxury trips, gifts, and hundreds of thousands in illicit payments, according to a new article by the Philadelphia Inquirer.

The project, originally budgeted at $58 million, ballooned after Bhaskaran signed off on expensive contract changes — including a $9 million amendment — while soliciting bribes from contractors. Just one day before the 2018 media tour, he emailed Mark 1 Restoration executives: “CEO approved.” That same day, a Mark 1 executive co-signed a New York apartment lease for Bhaskaran’s daughter. A month later, he bought Bhaskaran $2,000 Bruno Mars tickets.

Federal investigators say this was part of a three-year conspiracy in which Bhaskaran pocketed $323,686 in gifts from Mark 1, including meals at Del Frisco’s, trips to Atlantic City, a German shepherd puppy, vacations to India and Ecuador, and even a Tourneau watch — all paid for by inflated Amtrak invoices.

Where's DOGE when you need them...

Meanwhile, Vega Solutions, a second contractor, paid Bhaskaran $150,000 in bribes, gave him credit cards for personal spending, hired his girlfriend and a relative, and provided two Ford Explorers. Vega, prosecutors say, defrauded Amtrak of over $786,000.

The Inquirer writes that Bhaskaran cultivated close ties with contractors early on. In one 2016 email, a Mark 1 executive wrote: “AJ shared this with me last night. Keep it tight… Steak dinner, cigars and whiskey...” Another Mark 1 VP reported Bhaskaran wanted “as much as possible” in a contract change order — and soon, Bhaskaran secured Amtrak’s approval for $13 million more.

Bhaskaran also helped Vega Solutions secure a $1.3 million oversight contract by slashing insurance requirements and then charging flights to the contractor’s credit card. The firm was led by siblings Sandeep Hardikar and Madhura Atitkar, with Atitkar listed as president so Vega could qualify as a woman-owned business.

In 2017, after receiving a luxury watch from Mark 1 executives, Bhaskaran approved millions more in project funds. That year, he vacationed in the Galápagos Islands — flights, lodging, and a cruise all covered by Mark 1. Later, they also bought him a $4,775 purebred German shepherd and covered its training.

All the while, he pressured contractors for more. “Deposited May payroll and extra 8000,” Atitkar texted her brother, who replied Bhaskaran had deposited the funds the next day.

In March 2018, an anonymous tipster alerted Amtrak’s inspector general: Bhaskaran was flouting ethics rules and had hired Vega — then started driving a new Ford Explorer. Investigators launched a sweeping inquiry, collecting emails, records, and even surveillance photos of Bhaskaran out with his dog or in a Hummer limo headed to Atlantic City, the Inquirer said. 

Emails revealed how openly the executives discussed the scheme. “He said we all know Mark 1 is significantly over billed,” one wrote. Yet publicly, they praised Bhaskaran. “I can completely trust them,” Bhaskaran said in a since-removed Amtrak video.

Of the 47 invoices Mark 1 submitted during Bhaskaran’s tenure, he approved every one. He rejected all extra funding requests from another architecture firm — the only one not accused of bribing him.

Bhaskaran was arrested in November 2019 for unrelated wire fraud but admitted to accepting bribes. He died of heart failure in 2020, leaving behind four luxury cars, fake IDs, and thousands in cash.

Prosecutors later added Social Security fraud charges, alleging Bhaskaran had illegally collected $252,000 in benefits meant for deceased in-laws.

Since then, five contractors — including three Mark 1 executives and both Vega siblings — have pleaded guilty. The sixth, Mark 1 owner Mark Snedden, is expected to do the same. Vega repaid the full $786,000.

Prosecutors say the scandal highlights how infrastructure projects can become “lucrative targets for fraud.” An Amtrak spokesperson said the company took “swift and definitive action” and has since overhauled its contract oversight.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 18:50

"Luigi The Musical": New Show Celebrating UnitedHealth CEO Killer Set To Premier In San Fran

Zero Hedge -

"Luigi The Musical": New Show Celebrating UnitedHealth CEO Killer Set To Premier In San Fran

Just when you thought you've seen it all...

A new musical comedy centered on accused killer Luigi Mangione is set to premiere in San Francisco next month, drawing backlash for what critics see as a tasteless glamorization of violence, according to the New York Post.

“Luigi the Musical” opens June 13 at the Taylor Street Theater, promising a “bold, campy and unafraid” portrayal of the 26-year-old alleged gunman charged in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson—a crime that left two young children without a father. Tickets for opening night are already sold out.

Promotional materials describe the show as “a wildly irreverent, razor-sharp comedy that imagines the true story of Luigi Mangione, the alleged corporate assassin turned accidental folk hero.” The tagline: “A story of love, murder and hash browns,” references Mangione’s arrest while eating at McDonald’s.

The Post writes that in the musical, Mangione shares a fictional jail cell with convicted crypto fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried and embattled hip-hop mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs, who together become part of his bizarre journey through infamy. “With real-life cellmates Sam Bankman-Fried and Diddy by his side, Luigi navigates friendship, justice, and the absurdity of viral fame,” the synopsis reads.

“If you like your comedy smart and your showtunes with a criminal record, Luigi is your new favorite felony,” the producers boast.

The production is the work of songwriter Arielle Johnson and director Nova Bradford, who cite the musical Chicago as inspiration. Behind-the-scenes clips feature lyrics such as, “...flash those pearly whites, there were cameras there that night, and that’s what let the po-lice take me in,” referencing Mangione’s alleged mistake of removing his mask at a New York hostel, allowing authorities to identify him.

Despite the show's flippant tone, Bradford defended its creative direction in an interview with the San Francisco Chronicle: “We’re not valorizing any of these characters, and we’re also not trivializing any of their actions or alleged actions.”

Mangione is currently on trial in Manhattan for the murder of Thompson. Prosecutors are seeking the death penalty, which could mark the first federal execution sentence handed down in Manhattan in 70 years.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 18:00

We Know How To Fix Government - Will We?

Zero Hedge -

We Know How To Fix Government - Will We?

Authored by J.Peder Zane via RealClearPolitics.com,

The Department of Government Efficiency noticed a snag: the sign-in button on the IRS homepage wasn’t where it ought to be. Instead of the upper right-hand corner where we, the people, have been trained to look for logins, it was stacked with other buttons in the middle of the page. It was not too hard to find, but its unusual placement disrupted the interface between taxpayers and tax collectors.

It was a simple fix.

Yet an IRS engineer reportedly estimated that it would take at least 103 days to move the button. 

Thankfully, Elon Musk’s team posted last month on X:

“This engineer worked with the DOGE team to delete the red tape and accomplished the task in 71 minutes.”

If DOGE has revealed anything in its first 100 days, it is the depth of government dysfunction. While Musk’s detractors are reveling in his most obvious shortcoming – to date, it has cut an estimated $160 billion in government spending instead of the promised $2 trillion – the urgent need for reform is clear. The difficulty smart and dedicated cost-cutters are encountering in paring the mounds of federal waste is the canary crying in the coal mine.

To take a favorite word of progressives, the issues we face with government inefficiency are systemic. Fraud and abuse are real problems, but, as the IRS button example shows, the deeper issues involve what passes for standard operating procedure. We have built a leviathan that is strangling us with process.

Fred Kaplan provides a telling example in his New York Review of Books piece on Raj M. Shah and Christopher Kirchhoff’s new book, “Unit X: How the Pentagon and Silicon Valley Are Transforming the Future of War.”

As a U.S. Air Force captain, Shah was flying missions over Iraq in 2006, Kaplan writes, when he noticed that his F16’s display screen did not “indicate his location in relation to coordinates on the ground.” Back in his barracks, Shah loaded a pocket PC he had for playing video games “with digital maps and strapped it to his knee while he flew. The software in that $300 gadget let him see where he was – basic information that the gadgetry on his $30 million plane could not provide.”

A decade later, Shah was tapped to lead a small Pentagon start-up, the Defense Innovation Unit Experimental (DIUx), that sought to apply Silicon Valley innovations like the pocket PC to the military. An early challenge was coordinating the refueling of planes in midair.

Kaplan wrote that this is a “very complicated task … Yet to plan these operations, they were moving magnetic pucks around on a whiteboard, just as their forebears had done during World War II.”

He continued: “Northrop Grumman had won a contract to overhaul this system; by the time Shah saw the whiteboard, the company had spent $745 million – twice the original estimate – over ten years with nothing to show for it, and the Air Force was now asking Congress for more. ”

Kaplan reports that Shah connected with “a small Silicon Valley firm” that developed “a working product … in four months, at a cost of $1.5 million.” Needless to say, “they faced intense resistance from the Air Force officer managing the Northrop Grumman program and from staffers on the House subcommittee overseeing the defense budget.” Happily, an advocate in the Pentagon brass helped them “break through the blockage.”

No one knows how many $745 million problems can be solved with a $1.5 million solution, but it seems safe to assume that the answer is plenty. As much as DOGE has drawn attention for firing federal workers and closing a few government programs, its most significant contribution has been exposing the jaw-dropping patterns of waste and inefficiency that bloat the size and cost of government.

One more example: On March 21, DOGE reported that “the IRS has the transaction volume of a mid-sized bank, running similar infrastructure. Those banks typically have an Operations and Maintenance (O&M) budget of ~$20M/yr. The IRS has a ~$3.5B O&M budget (which doesn’t include an additional $3.7B modernization budget).” Keep that in mind when you read the next scaremongering headline about job cuts at the IRS.

Error is inevitable in human action. DOGE has certainly made mistakes. But a bigger blunder is pretending that every government worker and government contract is essential. That is the implicit argument of Musk’s detractors. Even if that risible claim were correct, our current spending trajectory is unsustainable. Something has to give.

Still, there is reason for hope. Instead of just celebrating those who found a way to move a homepage button in 71 minutes, let’s identify and eliminate the layers of bureaucracy that would have turned it into a 103-day ordeal. If software engineers can solve Pentagon problems on the cheap, let’s compile and void a list of stupidly expensive contracts – before increasing its annual budget north of $1 trillion. It can be done.

This effort might even be bipartisan. As the Trump administration has proposed funding cuts to scientific research, his opponents have argued this will kneecap one of America’s greatest strengths: our unrivalled ingenuity and know-how. Why don’t we all agree to use that dynamism to create a government as smart and effective as our nation?

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 17:40

Election-Denier Eric Swalwell Bares Fengs, Seeks Subpoena Power To Probe Musk's Role In Trump's 2024 Win

Zero Hedge -

Election-Denier Eric Swalwell Bares Fengs, Seeks Subpoena Power To Probe Musk's Role In Trump's 2024 Win

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) launched into a conspiracy-laden diatribe over the 2024 presidential election results, suggesting subpoena power would be necessary to discern whether foreign adversaries—with an assist from Department of Government Efficiency leader Elon Musk—stole the race for President Donald Trump.

Elon Musk has done nothing in the last five months to make me think that we shouldn’t ask questions about what the hell he was doing in 2024,” Swalwell said on a recent podcast, uncovered by Breitbart News, when asked about an alleged U.S. data leaked through Elon Musk’s Starlink services.  

“Maybe we gave him too much of the benefit of the doubt after the election, but the way that he’s conducted himself with DOGE, and the way that he’s exposed us to so many hackers outside, and the way that he’s taken data, you know, from Americans, from our records — whether it’s Social Security or health care records, the only way that we can understand, you know, what the hell Elon Musk has been doing is to be in the majority,” the the lawmaker added, emphasizing that Democrats regaining a House majority to secure subpoena power would be a critical step in determining whether interference occurred in the 2024 election.

Swalwell’s rhetoric isn’t new. Back in 2016, he was a vocal proponent of the now-debunked narrative that Russia colluded with Trump to steal the election from Hillary Clinton. As a member of the House Intelligence Committee, Swalwell pushed investigations into Trump’s campaign ties to Russia, citing contacts with Russian operatives and the DNC email hacks. “The Russians wanted Donald Trump to win, and they took steps to make that happen,” he told CNN in 2019, referencing the Mueller Report. Critics, however, note the report found no evidence of direct collusion.

Swalwell previously faced intense scrutiny due to his past ties to Christine Fang, a suspected Chinese spy who targeted up-and-coming U.S. politicians. According to a 2020 Axios investigation, Fang, also known as Fang Fang, operated in the Bay Area from 2011 to 2015, cultivating relationships with local leaders who had potential to rise on the national stage. She reportedly engaged in sexual relationships with at least two Midwestern mayors to gain influence. Fang acted as a “bundler” for Swalwell’s 2014 congressional campaign, raising significant funds while he was a Dublin, California, city councilmember. She also attended events with Swalwell, including a 2013 Lunar New Year banquet and a 2012 student event at CSU East Bay, as documented in photos uncovered by Axios.

Fang’s activities raised red flags with the FBI, which had been monitoring her as part of a broader counterintelligence operation targeting Chinese espionage. She abruptly fled the U.S. in 2015 amid the FBI’s investigation, leaving unanswered questions about her influence. While Swalwell’s office claimed he cooperated with authorities and cut ties with Fang upon learning of the probe, critics argue his association with her casts doubt on his judgment—especially as he now accuses others of foreign collusion.

Projection much, Swalwell? 

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 17:20

President Trump's Threefold Opposition

Zero Hedge -

President Trump's Threefold Opposition

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via DailySignal.com,

At the end of the 100 days of the Trump administration, let’s just review for a moment the opposition to it. 

And it’s actually, if you think about it, a tripartite, a threefold opposition:

  1. pollsters, 

  2. the media, 

  3. and the Democratic Party and the institutionalized Left.

The pollsters have President Donald Trump down four or five points. But when you actually look at the Rasmussen poll or Mark Penn’s poll, a Democratic centrist, Trump is almost even. And then when you look with greater clarity at The New York Times poll that has him way down, you see that only 37% of the people polled voted for Donald Trump. But Donald Trump won by almost a point and a half. Don’t you think it should have been, I don’t know, 51%-49%? So, they were deliberately, in the case of The New York Times, under-polling Trump supporters.

The same was true with The Washington Post. They polled over 2,000 people, but only 840 were identified as Trump voters. Shouldn’t that have been half?

So, what am I getting at? 

We’re getting right back to what happened in 2016 when the polls were completely wrong. 

The same thing happened in 2020 when they overestimated former President Joe Biden’s strength by four or five points. And then, even in 2024, the NPR poll had—on the last day of the election—they had then-Vice President Kamala Harris winning by four points.

The Des Moines Register had Iowa lost to Trump by three points. He won it by 12.

So, what the pollsters are doing—not that Trump hasn’t lost some to the controversy over the trade wars—but the pollsters are trying to create momentum, fundraising, and jazz up opposition.

Then we turn to the media. The media’s in a fight with the Democratic Left now because of the scandal of Joe Biden. The Democratic Left is saying, “Well, you were a journalist. If you thought he was demented or cognitively challenged, why didn’t you report it?” But the journalists are saying, “We couldn’t get close to him. He looked OK for us because you had him in such a guarded environment.” In truth, they’re both guilty.

Do you remember those press conferences by then-White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre? Did anyone ever hear one question on those daily or three or four times a week press conferences? “Miss Jean-Pierre, is Joe Biden cognitively able to navigate himself to the podium? What is the nature of his cue cards? Have you had a Montreal Cognitive Assessment of him?” There was nothing. 

It was a combination of the Democratic Party, the Biden insiders, and the media.

And here’s another point, very quickly.

The media has gained a lot of influence and power in the opposition because there is no opposition on the Democratic Party. So, in lieu of an alternate agenda, the media has taken it upon themselves to use the only strategy that the Democratic Party can come up with. And that is to attack Donald Trump.

Now, what do I mean by that? If you look at the Democratic Party and the Left in general, they have boxed themselves in. 

On the one hand, they have no institutional power; no ability to pass legislation, losing the House and the Senate; no presidency, White House; no executive orders. 

Ultimately, all of the cherry-picked district and circuit judges will be overturned by a largely conservative Supreme Court.

In lieu of actual power, then you look at what is the alternative. 

Maybe the alternative is a 1994 Newt Gingrich Contract with America, an alternate agenda: Yes, we can do better on the border than you can. Yes, we have a better foreign policy with Iran. 

There’s nothing. There’s no shadow government. There’s not a young Bill Clinton ascendant. There’s no young Barack Obama. There’s nobody. There’s no leaders. There’s no agenda. Nothing. It’s nihilism.

And so, let’s look at the third element. 

Do they have a good old days?

Can they say, “Donald Trump ruined things”? “They were so good under Biden. The border was—we liked it open. Twelve million, we could have got 20 million illegal aliens. Let’s go back to that. We had a wonderful retreat from Afghanistan. Picture perfect. We can do it again. The Iran—the theater war in Ukraine and Iran, that wasn’t our fault. Maybe it was inevitable. We had a really good inflation—we had a little hyperinflation of 9%.”

So, there is no alternative good old days. They can’t say Donald Trump wrecked something because they had wrecked the country.

So, what are we left with? 

We’re left with Donald Trump wore a blue suit at the Vatican funeral. Donald Trump is a fascist. No. According to Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, he is a Nazi. No. According to former Vice President Al Gore, he is a Nazi. No. According to members of the Congress, is he deserving a polite conversation? You have to use the F-word. Or maybe it’s the S-word.

It’s smutty mouth, potty mouth video.

What is the one principle that ties them all together? 

We’re gonna talk about that in the next video.

But it’s about fear that Donald Trump’s first 100 days are not as chaotic and bad as they tell us. 

But we might be on the cusp of something that will be very, very successful and will ensure Donald Trump has a successful presidency.

Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 17:00

ZeroHedge Store: Announcing Rancher-Direct Meats & More In Partnership With The Beef Initiative

Zero Hedge -

ZeroHedge Store: Announcing Rancher-Direct Meats & More In Partnership With The Beef Initiative

Since launching our online store in December, the response has been overwhelming. Not only is your support of our mission greatly appreciated, it's allowed us to expand.

Thanks to RFK Jr.'s "Make America Healthy Movement," people are paying close attention to what they're putting in their bodies like never before - and want to know exactly where their food is coming from.

To that end, ZeroHedge Store is proud to introduce ranch-direct, clean, grass-fed beef and other meats, raised on vetted, independent farms across America, packed on dry ice, and shipped quickly and directly to your door as part of our new partnership with Texas Slim and The Beef Initiative - a key ally in the MAHA movement whose mission is to connect consumers directly to their food. We're proud to join this movement, and we hope you will too.

Click to jump directly to our new Rancher-Direct section...

You'll know exactly what you're putting into your body, where it came from, and you'll be supporting a network of independent farmers with high standards who have been crushed under the monopoly on US beef held by four transnational corporations.

Each regeneratively-ranched farm is thoroughly vetted by The Beef Initiative, while community-based microprocessing centers are employed to ensure that your beef - and other meats, are quickly and cleanly butchered, packaged, flash frozen, and ready to ship directly to your door for free.

Pricing: By eliminating links in the chain, we can offer high quality, clean beef and other meats at very reasonable prices, directly from the ranch families that grew it.

*** By purchasing rancher-direct, your support goes straight to family-run ranches.

*** 5% discount for all Beef Initiative subscriptions

Here's The Beef (and more)

We're kicking off our Rancher-Direct program with four independent ranches, along with a NYC-based beef tallow skincare company that sources directly from Redbanks Beef Farm in Virginia.

Ebersole Cattle Co. - Iowa

Located just outside of Kellerton, Iowa, the Ebersoles have been in business since 1998 and specialize in Regenerative Ranching. Their meat is 100% Grass-Fed and Grass Finished, uses no hormones, antibiotics, or mRNA vaccines.

Check out their;

  • Prime Berkshire Pork (13-15 lbs); 2lbs thick-cut bacon, 2 thick cut Iowa pork chops, 2 pork steaks, 2lbs ground pork, 2lbs ground sausage, 1lb Chorizo, 1lb maple sausage.

  • Rancher's Favorites Box - Beef, Pork & Seasonally available Lamb & Whole Chickens. Comes with 2-4 steaks, 3-5 lbs ground meat (beef, sausage or pork - rancher's choice), and 1lb of thick-cut bacon.
Legacy Ranch - Illinois

Offering corn-finished American Wagyu cattle on raised a small 1st generation family-owned ranch in central Illinois which uses regenerative practices. The cattle are pasture-raised with plenty of space to roam, graze, and grow at a natural pace.

Check out their;

  • Wagyu Cattleman's Bundle (15-16 lbs): 1 Ribeye steak, 1 NY Strip steak, 1 Filet Mignon, 1lb of fajita meat, 2-3 lbs of Chuck Roast, 5lb of Ground Beef, 3 burger patties, 4 Brats, and 4 Wagyu Snack Sticks (original, teriyaki, sweet heat, BBQ)

Beck Ranch - Wyoming

Family-owned in Lonetree, WY, Beck Ranch offers grass-fed, grain-free beef with no added hormones or antibiotics.

Check out their;

  • Steak Lover's Bundle2 Filet Mignon steaks | 2 Ribeye or Rib Steaks Steaks | 2 Baseball or Ponderosa Steaks | 2 New York Strip Steaks | 2 Top Sirloin Steaks

Miller Bison - Nevada

Located in Eureka, Nevada, Anthony and Benita Miller have over 130 bison on their 320-acre farm which uses regenerative agriculture practices.

Check out their;

  • Complete Bison Box; 2-4 steaks (Rancher's choice of: Ribeye, Tenderloin, NY Strip, Top Sirloin, Flat Iron, Skirt and more), 2-3 lbs slow-cook cuts (roasts, short ribs, stew meat), and 4-6 lbs of Ground Bison. 

Born To Be Free - New York, Tallow sourced from Virginia

Nadja and John Scavone have produced a collection of non-toxic, chemical-free skincare products using the finest, regeneratively-sourced ingredients using grass-fed tallow.

Check out their;

  • Cattleman's Skincare Collection; Sandalwood Body Butter (4oz), Sandalwood Tallow Soap Bar (4.5oz), Sweet Almond Body Butter (2.5oz), Coconut Vanilla Lip Balm (.3oz)

From Texas Slim, founder of The Beef Initiative: "This partnership with ZeroHedge isn’t just a media alignment—it’s the signal fire. American ranchers are reconnecting with the people they feed, not through policy or permission, but through proof of work. We’re laying the foundation for a sovereign food system—local, durable, and built on trust. Every box you buy keeps a rancher on the land and a way of life from disappearing."

SHOP HERE Tyler Durden Fri, 05/02/2025 - 17:00

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