Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
Since the secretary of HHS is a vaccine denialist who cannot be trusted, the American Academy of Pediatrics has this week published its own authoritative, comprehensive, science-based vaccine schedule for children and adolescents from birth to age 18. The link provides: – the schedule for routine immunizations from birth to 18 years of age; – […]
The post The AAP childhood vaccine schedule appeared first on Angry Bear.
President Trump weighed in on the Mid-Atlantic power crisis on Truth Social early Tuesday, echoing our warnings last week about the fallout from Democrats' multi-year "green" crusade to replace reliable, low-cost fossil fuel power plants with unreliable solar and wind amid power demand surges from AI data centers and other electrification trends. The result has been financially crushing for some residents across the Mid-Atlantic. In Maryland, Democrats' approval ratings are already tanking.
"STUPID AND UGLY WINDMILLS ARE KILLING NEW JERSEY," President Trump wrote on Truth Social moments ago.
He continued, "Energy prices up 28% this year, and not enough electricity to take care of state. STOP THE WINDMILLS!"
Trump's use of Truth Social to address the unfolding power bill crisis in the Mid-Atlantic comes after our year-long reporting (read) on the emerging crisis, which has been amplified nationally in recent weeks...
The Trump administration needs to address the power bill crisis by showing voters in both states that a common denominator of destructive policies is driving the crisis: A disastrous green energy agenda, pushed by radical leftist lawmakers, is dismantling reliable and affordable fossil fuel power generation in favor of unstable solar and wind. This has unleashed a power bill armageddon on working-class and middle-class households, as well as mom-and-pop businesses, all while baseload power demand surges in the era of AI data centers.
Fox News jumped on the power bill crisis story last week...
You don't say... https://t.co/iX4l8J6otj pic.twitter.com/M620Jd7Pog
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 14, 2025
Perhaps New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy's decision to shutter the state's nuclear and coal plants, without a one-to-one replacement for lost capacity on the grid, was a catastrophic error. His administration's prioritization of offshore wind farms and other green energy projects has left the grid more fragile than ever.
Murphy took six power plants offline and invested a billion dollars in chasing his offshore wind dream. Mikie enabled the obsessions of climate activists by voting in favor of the trillion dollar green new scam (aka, inflation reduction act). Instead of investing in existing… https://t.co/6MXgSHbT60 pic.twitter.com/ka2EfhB9W6
— Protect Our Coast NJ (@njcoast_protect) July 29, 2025
In Maryland, the power bill crisis seems much more severe than in New Jersey!
Failed green policies are crushing the very working poor and middle class that Democrats have promised to protect. Yet the green utopia that was pitched was always a lie.
According to Change Annapolis, a bipartisan group of taxpayers, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore's ratings plunged over a multitude of issues, including power bills: "Marylanders are tired of his presidential vanity tour, crushing tax hikes, and an energy crisis of his own making," adding, "He's polling worse than O'Malley and Glendening at this point in their terms."
The power bill crisis is still in its early stages. Goldman analyst Hongcen Wei wrote an alarming note to clients last week, warning that a majority of U.S. power grids "have already reached dangerously low spare capacity levels that are at or below the critical reliability threshold. This raises blackout threats and results in power price spikes during high-demand usage hours."
In other words, the power crisis has arrived, and it's only going to get worse from here. The Trump administration needs to effectively communicate to voters that skyrocketing power bills are the direct result of failed green policies in the age of AI data centers.
We've got bad news... read this.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 13:20This short YouTube will eat up less than five minutes of your time. I believe Robert is mostly correct in his regard for our current president and a failed Republican party which appears to be bought, sealed, and delivered to do his bidding. The same as in the sixties and seventies, the answer to this […]
The post Robert Reich Talking Politics appeared first on Angry Bear.
Travel on all roads and streets changed by +1.5% (+4.1 billion vehicle miles) for April 2025 as compared with April 2024. Travel for the month is estimated to be 277.3 billion vehicle miles.
The seasonally adjusted vehicle miles traveled for April 2025 is 277.0 billion miles, a +1.3% ( 3.6 billion vehicle miles) change over April 2024. It also represents a 0.3% change (0.8 billion vehicle miles) compared with March 2025.
Cumulative Travel for 2025 changed by +0.8% (+8.3 billion vehicle miles). The cumulative estimate for the year is 1,043.5 billion vehicle miles of travel.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.Part of Zelensky's motive for wearing a suit Monday to the White House has become clearer with fresh reporting in the Financial Times, which reviewed a document showing Ukraine will promise to buy $100 billion of American weapons financed by Europe in a bid to obtain robust US security guarantees.
Additionally, "Under the proposals, Kyiv and Washington would also strike a $50bn deal to produce drones with Ukrainian companies that have pioneered the technology since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022," the report continues. Ukraine pitched its plan during the Monday White House summit, which also involved seven EU leaders - and the $100BN arms deal became part of the key talking points pushed by the European allies.
Getty Images
This is an effort by design meant to ensure Ukraine can procure what it wants - and that its war efforts can still be funded uninterrupted - while still ultimately appeasing Trump. "We’re not giving anything. We’re selling weapons," Trump had said Monday in response to a reporter's question on the matter.
It remains very obvious that Europe's demands of keeping up huge pressure on Russia, including through sanctions, are intended to stymie any US-backed deal seen as too favorable to Moscow. The FT report comments on this as follows:
The document details how Ukraine intends to make a counter-pitch to the US after Trump appeared to align himself with Russia’s position for ending the war following his meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Alaska last week.
It reiterates Ukraine's call for a ceasefire that Trump had espoused but then dropped after his Putin meeting in favor of the pursuit of a comprehensive peace settlement.
Geopolitical analyst and commentator Glenn Diesen has pointed out, however, that Kiev is essentially attempting to create leverage out of nothing.
"Europe will spend $100 billion it does not have, to buy weapons from America that it does not have, to arm soldiers that Ukraine now lacks," he wrote, explaining further: "This is to confront Russia, which for 30 years warned it would respond to NATO militarizing its borders."
Diesen followed by doing something that Washington policy-makers refuse to do, and that is look at the big picture of how we got here [emphasis ZH]:
There was no threat to Ukraine before 2014, as only a tiny minority of Ukrainians wanted to join NATO, and Russia laid no claim to any of Ukraine's territory. Western governments then supported a coup to pull Ukraine into NATO's orbit - something that CIA Directors, Ambassadors, and Western state leaders had warned would instigate a security competition and likely trigger a war.
Russia predictably reacted fiercely. Ever since then, the only acceptable narrative has been that Russia wants to restore the Soviet Union and that Putin is Hitler. Any dissent is labelled as "disinformation", "propaganda", "hybrid warfare", or even treason.
The war has now been lost, and the Americans are pulling away from it, asking the Europeans to absorb the consequences. How do the Europeans respond? By doubling down on this madness, which will destroy Ukraine, our economies, and our relevance in the world - and possibly trigger a nuclear war. - What is the strategy? More of the same? The best thing for Ukraine is to remove it from the frontlines of the geopolitical struggle over where to draw the new dividing lines in Europe: End the war, rebuild Ukraine, and replace expansionist military blocs with the principle of indivisible security.
Arestovych throws up his arms, says Russia was right all along about Ukraine neutrality:
— Chebureki Man (@CheburekiMan) August 19, 2025
In conclusion, the fundamental challenge for Ukraine lies not in tactical maneuvers but in recognizing the strategic perspective: the necessity of reimagining its role as a neutral,… https://t.co/ZyKFLoXlfc
This week, as negotiations proceed and Europe keeps up its drive to pile more and more pressure on Putin, the big question will be whether the Western side can indeed understand that it has lost the proxy war.
Many immense hurdles remain, and one could also point out there are too many cooks in the kitchen (judging by the over a half-dozen European leaders present in the Oval yesterday), making things all the more unnecessarily complicated - and that's probably by design.
* * *
Glenn Greenwald agrees with this bleak assessment of Europe's role in thwarting peace...
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 12:00DC foreign policy elites now know that Ukraine cannot win, but they would rather continue fueling a fruitless and deadly war than admit they were wrong and delusional about Ukraine's prospects against Russia. @ggreenwald on the Ukraine war: pic.twitter.com/tUyLtjGG8V
— System Update (@SystemUpdate_) August 19, 2025
Home Depot's sales improved during its fiscal second quarter as consumers remained focused on smaller projects amid cost concerns and economic uncertainty, but its performance missed Wall Street's expectations.
Revenue for the three months ended August 3 climbed to $45.28 billion from $43.18 billion, but fell short of the $45.41 billion estimated by about 30bps. Gross margins beta by 20 bps and operating margins were largely in-line. Comp store sales rose 1%, also missing the 1.3% estimate. In the U.S., comp store sales increased 1.4%. According to Goldman, "comp sales were about 30 bps light and exactly what almost all previews and inbounds suggested." While customer transactions declined ~1% in the quarter, the amount shoppers spent rose to $90.01 per average receipt from $88.90 in the prior-year period.
Q2 EPS of $4.68 also missed consensus $4.72. The company earned $4.55 billion, or $4.58 per share, for the second quarter. A year ago, the Atlanta-based company earned $4.56 billion, or $4.60 per share.
Here is a snapshot of Goldman's first take analysis (full note available to pro subs):
Average ticket increased +1.2% y/y to $90.0 from $88.9 in the prior year, while
Total customer transactions decreased -0.9% y/y to $446.8mn from $451.0mn in the prior year. Management noted that trends that began in the 2H of last year continued through the 1H of this year as customers engaged more broadly in smaller home improvement projects.
Gross margin increased +2 bps y/y to 33.4%, above GS/consensus estimates of 33.2%/33.3%.
Total operating expenses increased +8.2% y/y to $8.4bn, while total operating expenses as a % of sales increased +57 bps y/y to 18.6%.
Adjusted operating margin decreased -56 bps y/y to 14.8%, below thenGS/consensus estimates of 15.1%/14.9%, and adjusted operating profit of $6.7bn compares to $6.6bn in the prior year (+1.1%).
Inventory increased +7.7% y/y (vs. +14.9% in 1Q) which we note compares to the sales increase of 4.9%. The company’s payable ratio of 52.7% increased
And here is a snapshot of the company results vs Goldman estimates:
“Our second quarter results were in line with our expectations," Chair and CEO Ted Decker said in a statement. "The momentum that began in the back half of last year continued throughout the first half as customers engaged more broadly in smaller home improvement projects.”
The print was in line with buyside whisper expectations of a small miss, with Goldman writing that the direction of the stock today likely won’t be too heavily influenced by this exact result, which does not feel like thesis changing.
More importantly, the company reaffirmed full year guidance, with commentary on the call about improved trajectory to end the quarter after some weather headwinds earlier in the quarter: The company reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 forecast for total sales growth of about 2.8%. It still expects adjusted earnings to decline about 2% from $15.24 per share a year earlier, although it cited momentum continuing that started to build in 2H prior year.
Neil Saunders, managing director of GlobalData, said that Home Depot saw consumers concentrating on smaller projects and gardening during the quarter: “As the largest improvement player, Home Depot is getting the lion’s share of this growth and remains the number one destination for consumers due to strong customer service, a comprehensive range, and sharp pricing,” he said. “The latter factor will serve it well as consumers become more price conscious.”
Home improvement retailers like Home Depot have been dealing with homeowners putting off bigger projects because of increased borrowing costs and lingering concerns about inflation.
The US housing market has been in a sales slump dating back to 2022, when mortgage rates began to climb from pandemic-era lows. Sales of existing homes have slumped as elevated mortgage rates and rising prices discourage home shoppers. Sales of such homes in the U.S. slid in June to the slowest pace since last September as mortgage rates remained high and the national median sales price climbed to an all-time high of $435,300.
After initially sliding as much as 5%, Home Depot stock eventually surged over 4% in early Tuesday trading and was responsible for about half of all the DJIA gains.
The U.S. East Coast dodged a massive bullet this week as powerful Category 3 Hurricane Erin passed near the Bahamas on Tuesday morning. Instead of making landfall, Erin is expected to unleash rough surf from Central Florida to Canada before curving out into the western Atlantic later this week. This has certaintly brought excitement for East Coast surfers.
At 0500 ET, Erin was approximately 700 miles southwest of Bermuda and 750 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras.
"Erin forecast to substantially grow in size while moving over the western Atlantic through the week," National Hurricane Center Meteorologist Robbie Berg wrote in a note, warning, "Dangerous rip currents expected along U.S. East Coast beaches."
Tropical storm and storm surge watches have been issued for the Outer Banks of North Carolina all the way up to the Mid-Atlantic states.
Local media outlets reported that evacuations are underway in the Outer Banks area as the storm approaches.
Here's the latest forecast track (East Coast dodged a bullet):
The most active part of the Atlantic Hurricane season has arrived after a relatively quiet first half.
. . .
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 11:00Authored by Andrew Moran via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Small businesses in the United States encountered growing challenges accessing credit in June, according to Equifax’s latest small-business lending index.
People walk past small businesses in Doylestown, Pa., on Nov. 4, 2021. Matt Rourke/AP Photo
Lending volumes fell by 3.3 percent month over month, although they remained up by more than 2 percent from the same period in 2024, according to the report released on Aug. 18.
The index’s three-month moving average jumped to 1 percent, fueled by robust lending activity volumes in April that have since eroded.
Regionally, 23 states experienced year-over-year declines in 12-month rolling lending volumes, with California (minus 10 percent), Nevada (minus 9 percent), and Georgia (minus 6 percent) leading the decline.
Across industries, nominal (noninflation-adjusted) lending decreased in six of the 17 sectors tracked. Accommodation and food services experienced the sharpest decline, while construction, finance and insurance, and retail lending remained stable.
Credit conditions showed signs of stabilization in the wake of President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, the report reads.
The small-business delinquency index (31 to 90 days past due) edged up by nearly 2 percent, or three basis points, from May. The index was little changed from June 2024.
Additionally, the default index fell by more than 3 percent, down by seven basis points month over month.
Despite national improvements, 34 states reported year-over-year increases in default rates. Maine stood out with a 35 percent spike, the highest in the country. Delinquency rates rose or held steady in five industries, with wholesale trade posting the largest monthly increase of 2 percent.
In the coming months, a boost to small-business lending is expected to unfold in the third and fourth quarters.
Wall Street overwhelmingly anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates beginning in September. The Fed’s periodic Summary of Economic Projections—a survey of policymakers’ expectations for the economy and interest rates in the future—points to two rate cuts this year.
The federal funds rate—a key policy rate that influences business, consumer, and government borrowing costs—has been unchanged in a target range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent since January.
However, although a rate cut is considered a boon for the credit industry, the report states that easing monetary policy could “exacerbate inflationary pressures.”
Last week, the annual inflation rate for July came in at 2.7 percent for the second straight month, lower than the market’s estimate of 2.8 percent. However, key pipeline inflation indicators—the producer price index and import prices—topped economists’ expectations, signaling that the current administration’s trade agenda could be igniting renewed price pressures.
The U.S. central bank will host its annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium from Aug. 21 to Aug. 23, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivering the keynote address on Aug. 22.
Lenders Signal OptimismDespite the slowdown in small-business lending, a recent industry survey suggests that lenders remain optimistic, citing improved business conditions.
The Federal Reserve in Washington on July 21, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times
According to the American Financial Services Association’s latest consumer credit conditions index for the second quarter, shared with The Epoch Times, the business environment was positive on balance.
In the April–June period, the net increasing index—a measure spotlighting the difference between the percentage of lenders who said loan performance conditions got better and those who said they got worse—reached the highest level in the survey’s six-quarter history.
In addition, 26 percent more respondents reported that funding costs improved in the second quarter than those who said they worsened. Meanwhile, 18 percent reported an improvement in the performance of their outstanding loans, compared with those who said it worsened.
Despite broad-based improvements, more auto lenders reported that business conditions weakened in the second quarter than those who reported improvements. Auto lenders also anticipate weaker overall conditions over the next six months.
Caution AheadDemand for loans from commercial and industrial companies has weakened, according to the New York Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on bank lending. Banks, according to the report, also found weaker demand for credit and other loans from consumers.
Despite slowing credit demand, the findings indicated that credit supply through banking lending standards had not tightened significantly.
Bipan Rai, managing director at BMO, said that ultimately, the latest figures reveal both the good and the bad.
“Empirically, we know that a deterioration in the credit cycle is consistent with a general slowing of the real economy,” Rai said in an Aug. 11 note.
“A silver lining in the [Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey] release is that credit supply ... has not tightened materially. Typically, a slowing in the credit cycle would be more concerning if falling demand came as a result of tighter lending standards.”
Although the trade situation has stabilized since the April peak of uncertainty, businesses and consumers are seeking greater policy clarity, a recent survey highlighted.
The American Bankers Association’s latest credit conditions index—a quarterly outlook for credit markets—declined for the second consecutive quarter. The headline reading came in at 32.1—anything lower indicates expected deterioration—and the index fell to 35.7 for businesses and 28.6 for consumers.
Trade negotiations and passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act have offered some reassurance, but tariff-related uncertainty is still a headwind for credit conditions and the broader economy, according to Sayee Srinivasan, the association’s chief economist.
“'Hard data’ suggest the economy remains on solid footing, but consumer and business sentiment indicate that policy uncertainty remains elevated and is causing some firms and households to adopt a cautious approach to hiring, spending and investment,” Srinivasan said in the report.
The White House recently imposed higher reciprocal tariffs, ranging from 10 percent to 50 percent, on almost 70 U.S. trading partners. The president is expected to announce tariffs on imports of chips, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals soon.
Still, small-business optimism has improved and is above the National Federation of Independent Business’s long-term average.
Bill Dunkelberg, the group’s chief economist, said that uncertainty persists but business owners are “reporting more positive expectations on business conditions and expansion opportunities.”
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 10:40Having recently agreed on a China "revenue-share" deal with the Trump admin, the world's leader in chatbot chip production, Nvidia, is developing a new AI chip especially for China based on its latest Blackwell architecture that will be more powerful than the H20 model it is currently allowed to sell there, Reuters reported citing sources.
The new chip, tentatively known as the B30A, will use a single-die design that is likely to deliver half the raw computing power of the more sophisticated dual-die configuration in Nvidia's flagship B300 accelerator card, the sources said.
A single-die design is when all the main parts of an integrated circuit are made on one continuous piece of silicon rather than split across multiple dies.
The new chip would have high-bandwidth memory and Nvidia's NVLink technology for fast data transmission between processors, features that are also in the H20 - a chip based on the company's older Hopper architecture. While the chip's specifications are not completely finalized Nvidia hopes to deliver samples to Chinese clients for testing as early as next month.
Last week Trump opened the door to the possibility of more advanced Nvidia chips being sold in China. But the sources noted U.S. regulatory approval is far from guaranteed amid deep-seated fears in Washington about giving China too much access to U.S. artificial intelligence technology.
When reached by Reuters, Nvidia said in a statement: "We evaluate a variety of products for our roadmap, so that we can be prepared to compete to the extent that governments allow."
"Everything we offer is with the full approval of the applicable authorities and designed solely for beneficial commercial use," it said.
The extent to which China, which generated 13% of Nvidia's revenue in the past financial year, can have access to cutting-edge AI chips is one of the biggest flashpoints in U.S.-Sino trade tensions. Nvidia only received permission in July to recommence sales of the H20. It was developed specifically for China after export restrictions were put in place in 2023, but company was abruptly ordered to stop sales in April.
Last week Trump said he might allow Nvidia to sell a scaled-down version of its next-generation chip in China after announcing an unprecedented deal that will see Nvidia and rival give the U.S. government 15% of revenue from sales of some advanced chips in China.
A new Nvidia chip for China might have "30% to 50% off", he suggested in an apparent reference to the chip's computing power, adding that the H20 was "obsolete".
US legislators have worried that access to even scaled-down versions of flagship AI chips will impede U.S. efforts to maintain its lead in artificial intelligence. But Nvidia and others argue that it is important to retain Chinese interest in its chips - which work with Nvidia's software tools - so that developers do not completely switch over to offerings from rivals like Huawei.
Huawei has made great strides in chip development, with its latest models said to be on par with Nvidia in some aspects like computing power, though analysts say it lags in key areas such as software ecosystem support and memory bandwidth capabilities. That said, last week China's AI leader DeepSeek was forced to revert to Nvidia for its R2 model after Huawei's AI chip failed. As the FT reported, after the successful launch of its R1 model in January, DeepSeek found itself under pressure from China to champion the national cause. The message was clear: use Huawei’s chips, not Nvidia’s. But when it came to actually training their new R2 model, DeepSeek ran into “persistent technical issues” with Huawei’s AI chips. The problems were so fundamental that the project ground to a halt. A person with knowledge of the situation said this was the main reason the model’s planned launch in May was scrapped, putting the company on the back foot in a market that waits for no-one.
Complicating Nvidia's efforts to retain market share in China, Chinese state media have also in recent weeks alleged that the U.S firm's chips could pose security risks, and authorities have cautioned Chinese tech firms about purchasing the H20. Nvidia says its chips carry no backdoor risks.
Nvidia is also preparing to start delivering a separate new China-specific chip based on its Blackwell architecture and designed primarily for AI inference tasks, according to two other people familiar with those plans. Reuters reported in May that this chip, currently dubbed the RTX6000D, will sell for less than the H20, reflecting weaker specifications and simpler manufacturing requirements.
The chip is designed to fall under thresholds set by the U.S. government. It uses conventional GDDR memory and features memory bandwidth of 1,398 gigabytes per second, just below the 1.4 terabyte threshold established by restrictions introduced in April that led to the initial H20 ban. Nvidia is set to deliver small batches of RTX6000D to Chinese clients in September.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 09:45Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,
The UK government has agreed to drop its request that Apple provide it with backdoor access to user data, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said on Monday.
Gabbard stated on X that the agreement came after months of working with UK partners, alongside President Donald Trump, and Vice President JD Vance, to ensure Americans’ private data and civil liberties are protected
“As a result, the UK has agreed to drop its mandate for Apple to provide a ‘back door’ that would have enabled access to the protected encrypted data of American citizens and encroached on our civil liberties,” she said.
Earlier this year, reports emerged that the UK government had issued Apple a “technical capability notice,” requiring the company to provide access to encrypted user data under the Investigatory Powers Act of 2016. In response, Apple halted its Advanced Data Protection (ADP) feature for users in the UK, citing concerns over data breaches.
The iPhone maker stated in a Feb. 24 blog post that it has “never built a backdoor or master key to any of our products or services and we never will.”
The ADP feature provides end-to-end encryption for iCloud storage, preventing non-account holders—including governments and hackers—from accessing data such as photos, documents, and notes. Without ADP, certain types of iCloud data will no longer be fully encrypted, making it potentially accessible to third parties with the proper legal authority.
“Apple remains committed to offering our users the highest level of security for their personal data and we are hopeful that we will be able to do so in the future in the United Kingdom,” Apple stated at the time.
In May, U.S. House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan and U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Brian Mast sent a letter to UK Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, urging her to allow Apple to disclose the order’s existence to the U.S. Department of Justice so the department can assess whether the order complies with a U.S.-UK bilateral agreement under the CLOUD Act, which prohibits orders requiring companies to decrypt data.
According to the letter, U.S. companies are prohibited under UK laws to disclose or confirm the existence of such an order, and doing so constitutes a criminal offense, even if the disclosure is made to the company’s home government.
The U.S. lawmakers warned that the UK’s order for Apple to create a backdoor could lead to some implications, as it might be exploited by cybercriminals and authoritarian regimes.
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard speaks to reporters during a briefing at the White House in Washington on July 23, 2025. Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times
“These vulnerabilities would not only affect UK users but also American citizens and others worldwide, given the global nature of Apple’s services,” they stated in the letter.
The UK’s Home Office and Apple did not return requests for comment by publication time.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 09:25Total housing starts in July were well above expectations and starts in May and June were revised up.There is much more in the article.
The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).
Total starts were up 12.9% in July compared to July 2024. Note that July was the weakest month in 2024, so this was an easy comparison.
Year-to-date (YTD) starts are up 1.6% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 4.2% YTD and multi-family up 18.1% YTD.
Authored by Daniel Idfresne , Micky Horstman via RealClearPolitics,
Zohran Mamdani attributes his Democratic nomination for New York City mayor to the confidence he has inspired in younger voters.
“I’ve been heartened in many of my conversations with older New Yorkers, who’ve told me they were introduced to the campaign by their son or their daughter,” Mamdani quipped. “I think it’s indicative of a new generation of leadership.”
His social media-savvy campaign promises to make NYC affordable and pursue social justice.
We get the appeal as Gen Zers – the generation who led Mamdani to triumph over Cuomo in the primary. We’re part of the most housing-burdened generation, and increasingly reliant on public transit.
But young voters shouldn’t be fooled by Mamdani’s vision. These lofty promises aren’t new. After all, Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson has battle-tested Mamdani’s proposed solutions to housing, crime, and public transit – and failed to deliver a safer, more affordable city.
In 2023, Johnson campaigned on building affordable housing and enacting rent stabilization laws. Yet, Chicago experienced the highest annual rent hike compared to other metro areas, at 5.9%. And what about Johnson’s promise to build affordable units? Chicago spent $300 million in government subsidies with only 500 new units to show for it.
After failing to pass his more progressive policies, Johnson recently adopted proven, free-market solutions to combat rising housing costs, such as eliminating parking requirements near public transportation stops and cutting government red tape.
Mamdani should be championing his pro-growth solutions, but instead his leading proposal is $100 billion in taxpayer funds to create 200,000 housing units over the next decade. New Yorkers should be skeptical: If Chicago couldn’t muster at least 500 units after burning $300 million in subsidies, why would NYC fare differently?
Mamdani also proposes to freeze rent for rent-stabilized apartments. This tried-and-failed approach to affordability will lead to more vacancies, deteriorate housing quality, and create a spill-over demand in market-rate apartments.
Our Gen Z peers are now opting for Austin, Raleigh, and Baltimore for lower housing costs.
Mamdani’s vision to create a “Department of Community Safety” instead of empowering the NYPD isn’t “new leadership” either. Johnson enacted similar boutique police reforms during his tenure with dismal results.
The former teachers’ union lobbyist opted to override the City Council and terminate the Chicago police-approved ShotSpotter – a gunshot detection system – for more “holistic” solutions. He stripped police officers from schools to end the “school-to-prison pipeline” and eliminated over 2000 police positions.
The city leads America in homicides and mass shootings despite crime rates falling nationwide. Chicagoans have moved on from solving the “root problems” of crime, and now rank it as the preeminent issue facing the city. They voted out the progressive, “soft on crime” state’s attorney, and have expressed support for more police, not less.
New Yorkers agree with Chicagoans – they support more policing – but Mamdani’s proposed reforms are still rooted in these luxury beliefs. He argued that social workers, not the NYPD, should respond to domestic violence calls. He called for defunding the police in 2020. Mamdani may have walked back his rhetoric, but his $1.1 billion proposal rests on the same assumptions that guided Johnson’s failures.
If you thought the subway was overrun with crime and homelessness, just wait until New York State follows through with Mamdani’s plan to make buses fare-free.
Riders on the Chicago Transit Authority have seen dramatic scheduling delays since the pandemic, and homelessness, smoking, and crime dominate train cars. Ridership recovery lags behind other major cities. This decline has added up to a deficit of over $500 million. The NYC Metropolitan Transit Authority faces a similar crisis: a projected $900 million deficit.
Unlike us, Mamdani and Johnson aren’t transit users. They don’t rely on clean, well-managed trains to get to work. They get the privilege of casting societal failures on transit, when everyday riders just want to get home quickly and safely. Instead of relying on the state to bail out the struggling systems, riders in New York and Chicago would benefit from a thorough police presence that enforces fares and prevents anti-social behavior. Instead, Johnson and Mamdani’s solution is to put social workers on the trains.
Chicago’s rejection of Johnson’s progressive policies should have inspired a course correction. Instead, Johnson advised Mamdani to double down.
“What has happened historically, particularly for candidates like myself or even Mamdani, when we win, sometimes the movement doesn’t always show up after the win, right? So, we just have to stay committed as progressives to our values, and even when it gets bumpy a little bit, it doesn’t mean that we’re doing everything wrong.”
Young New Yorkers should pay attention. Like many of our peers, we want safe, affordable cities. But, Chicago’s experiment in progressive governance is already unraveling – and New Yorkers should think twice before importing the same failed blueprint.
Daniel Idfresne is a student at Syracuse University, a Young Voices writer, and a former intern for “The Story with Martha MacCallum.” Find him on Instagram and X.
Micky Horstman is the communications associate for the Illinois Policy Institute and a social mobility fellow for Young Voices.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 08:55On the heels of homebuilder sentiment hitting COVID lockdown lows...
Source: Bloomberg
...US housing starts and permits data was mixed in July with Starts surging 5.2% MoM (far better than expected and following an upwardly revised 5.9% MoM jump in June). However, Building Permits disappointed, dropping 2.8% MoM (vs 0.5% MoM decline expected)...
Source: Bloomberg
This is the fourth month in a row of declining building permits (the most forward-looking indicator for the US housing market), now at its lowest since the COVID lockdowns...
Source: Bloomberg
The decline in Permits was dominated by multi-family units (down 9.9% MoM) while Housing Starts saw multi-family units jump 11.6% MoM in July (after surging 34.5% MoM in June)...
Source: Bloomberg
The number of multi-family unit starts is at the highest since June 2023...
Source: Bloomberg
But, and it's a big but, there is a big housing problem: US home construction pipeline is hopelessly clogged up, with completions crashing to 3 year low as builders prefer to hold off completing current units rather than go to market now, as they expect even higher prices.
Source: Bloomberg
Cartel behavior to limit supply? Or did the deportation of all those illegals leave the country without anyone who knows how to build a house?
The question we have for the new guy at the BLS is simple - if housing construction is crashing, why aren't construction jobs?
Source: Bloomberg
It appears Renter Nation is back and home (buying) affordability remains at historically lows
Will lower Fed Fund rates do anything to lower mortgage rates? Or will the implied curve steepening further crush affordability? Dear Mr. Trump, be careful what you wish for.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 08:42Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,428,000. This is 5.2 percent above the revised June estimate of 1,358,000 and is 12.9 percent above the July 2024 rate of 1,265,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 939,000; this is 2.8 percent above the revised June figure of 913,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 470,000.
Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,354,000. This is 2.8 percent below the revised June rate of 1,393,000 and is 5.7 percent below the July 2024 rate of 1,436,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 870,000; this is 0.5 percent above the revised June figure of 866,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 430,000 in July.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. Talking politics here and probably rightfully so. Tax relief for the wealthy and kicking people off of Medicaid to fund those breaks will not go over big. It appears there is plans to cut Medicare also. Both cuts will be for funding tax breaks for wealthy in income. The highest 10% will average an ~ […]
The post Giving to the Ultra-Rich Through Tax Breaks appeared first on Angry Bear.
Without a doubt, Pres. Tr__p has set up the United States for some type of retaliation in the future. Yes, Europe will adjust in some manner. Perhaps, Switzerland will move the final part of manufacturing to another country which is favored by the US. There are probably ways around this which need to be explored. […]
The post One European Country Adapting to U.S. Tariffs appeared first on Angry Bear.
An ancient Christian area inside the walled Jerusalem Old City is at the center of diplomatic tensions between Russia and Israel, and President Putin is now openly requesting that the Netanyahu government hand over owndership to Russia.
The Alexander Courtyard is a 1,300-square-meter located near the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in the Christian Quarter, and is currently front and center of the intense ownership dispute. In the packed and densely populated Old City, land of this size is huge and very significant, considering every little meter of property has been hotly fought over for many decades.
Holy Trinity Cathedral in the Russian Compound, Wiki Commons
The site, also often called simply the Russian Compound, includes the Orthodox Church of St. Alexander Nevsky - named after a 13th-century Russian warrior-prince, and has been at the heart of a long-running legal and diplomatic conflict between Israel and Russia.
The matter was reportedly raised directly during recent discussions between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which led to the PM appointing a special committee of senior Israeli ministers in order to handle the sensitive matter
Officials throughout the drawn-out saga have pointed out that President Putin views the issue as deeply personal, not just political.
Ynet News has reviewed that the Imperial Orthodox Palestine Society (OPS) has maintained de facto control over the Alexander Courtyard since its establishment in 1890.
Historical Ottoman documents list it as belonging to "the glorious Russian Empire" - though the OPS had also made formal purchase of the property.
But the Russian government has used this Ottomoman historic reference to argue that the land should now fall under Russian state ownership rather than OPS.
The OPS is a scholarly and charitable organization and insists that it is the sole owner, with both sides are appealing to the Israeli government to uphold and recognize their respective rights and claims.
Stillframe of aerial view of the Russian compound.
Putin's invervention has continued going back at least a half-decade. Adding to the complexity of the legal matter, in 2020 Netanyahu designated the Alexander Courtyard a "holy site" under British Mandate-era law.
In Israeli law this gives the government greater ability to decide on the matter, but the pressure from Moscow has ramped up in the meantime.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 04:15Submitted by Thomas Kolbe
The European Union is funded by contributions from its member states. At least, that’s what the founding treaties say. In practice, however, the EU has long been taking other paths.
At the core of Europe’s financial architecture lies a clear separation of responsibility and liability: Article 125 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU), the so-called “No-Bailout Clause.” It states, unequivocally, that neither the Union nor individual member states may assume the debts of other states. The purpose of this provision is to prevent free-rider effects (moral hazard) at the expense of other member states: each state is responsible for its own obligations.
Still, the clause does not exclude political support, as long as it does not mean assuming the existing debts of other states. A notable example of this practice were the bailout programs for Greece during the sovereign debt crisis one and a half decades ago.
Article 310 TFEU further regulates the EU budget: revenues and expenditures must be balanced every year, and the budget may only be financed through own resources such as member contributions, tariffs, or approved revenues. Independent loans by the EU Commission exceeding the approved framework are prohibited.
Together, these rules form the legal backbone of EU financial policy: no automatic liability, no autonomous EU debt, and only fully covered spending.
This design was deliberately chosen to prevent the emergence of a supra-state in Brussels and to defend the national scope of action of member states against an expanding Brussels bureaucracy.
Theory vs. Practice
That’s the theory. In practice, the EU has steadily increased its presence as a borrower in the bond market. It began in 1976 with the first European Community bond to support Italy and Ireland during the oil crisis. In the 1980s and 1990s, further issues followed for France, Greece, and Portugal—always aimed at demonstrating collective solidarity and easing fiscal tensions.
The 2008/2010 financial crisis marked a decisive turning point: with the European Financial Stabilisation Mechanism (EFSM) and, in 2012, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the EU began deliberately supporting over-indebted member states via bond issuance. In 2010, the European Central Bank announced it would purchase euro sovereign bonds on the open market to prevent the collapse of the monetary union—always in close coordination with EU institutions.
The COVID years saw a new dimension in 2020: for the first time, the EU issued Social Bonds under the “SURE” fund. At the same time, the “Next Generation EU” program started, providing around €800 billion in crisis aid. Since 2025, the Union has increasingly relied on so-called “sustainable bonds” (Green Bonds) and plans to issue short-term treasury bills for improved liquidity management.
The EU and ECB now operate in tandem, integrating ever-new financing instruments into the capital markets. The signal to the market is clear: we are ready to meet growing demand for euro bonds. And as collateral, not only the European taxpayer but also the ECB’s virtually unlimited liquidity is on standby. What could possibly go wrong?
Market Demand
For the second half of 2025, the European Commission plans to issue up to €70 billion in EU bonds across six auctions with maturities ranging from three to thirty years. Already in March 2025, the Commission achieved the world’s largest bond issuance increase, totaling $30.62 billion; three placements alone amounted to €13.7 billion.
Demand is plentiful, thanks to dual backing from member states and the ECB: an October 2024 issuance of a seven-year bond was oversubscribed 17 times. Green bonds are especially in focus: up to €250 billion are planned under NextGenerationEU, with €48.91 billion already issued.
Yields on these bonds currently trade about 40 basis points above German Bunds, making them attractive for investors.
Quo Vadis EU?
The European Union is undeniably moving toward a form of autonomous statehood. Its rigid ideological directives and the apodictic tone adopted by Commission representatives toward member states recently culminated in the Commission unilaterally negotiating the EU-US trade agreement.
Regardless of the agreement’s outcome, this sends a clear signal: decision-making power and political competence are shifting markedly from national capitals to Brussels, where a centralized bureaucracy increasingly calls the shots.
A return to national autonomy and a Commission limited to core functions appears out of the question. This is reflected in Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s EU budget proposal for 2028–2034, projected at around €2 trillion—a 40% increase over the previous period.
Brussels’ fiscal megalomania has a single goal: enabling the EU to finance its activities independently, exploiting the fiscal constraints of member states. The outstanding €650 billion, formally to be raised by member states, hangs like a Damocles sword over ongoing negotiations—a constant pressure allowing the Commission to effectively enforce its financing plans through the bond market.
Apart from Hungary and the Czech Republic, there is broad agreement that Brussels’ financing will increasingly come from the bond market—no national budget could handle the extra levies. The Commission’s plans are therefore tacitly approved.
ECB as Lender of Last Resort
Everything points to a co-financing model that makes the EU increasingly independent of national budgets. Institutional constraints—such as individual member states’ say—are effectively bypassed, as is the Commission’s original prohibition on borrowing. Step by step, the Union is transforming from a rule-bound confederation into a centrally managed financial actor, increasingly deciding over its own resources and priorities.
Should debt ever spiral out of control, as has become common practice in the EU, the European Central Bank would be ready as a lender of last resort. This will work as long as the capital markets retain confidence in the EU’s creditworthiness, particularly Germany’s payment ability. If market faith collapses, the ECB would be forced to intervene in a way that would dwarf the 2010 debt crisis. The euro would then be history. The EU is skating on thin ice.
About the author: Thomas Kolbe, a German graduate economist, has worked for over 25 years as a journalist and media producer for clients from various industries and business associations. As a publicist, he focuses on economic processes and observes geopolitical events from the perspective of the capital markets. His publications follow a philosophy that focuses on the individual and their right to self-determination.
Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 03:30
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