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Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

Calculated Risk -

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.10 million SAAR in October

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets

3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Schedule for Week of November 23, 2025

Calculated Risk -

Happy Thanksgiving!
Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released.  Items listed in RED have not been announced and will likely not be released this week.
The key reports this week include the advance estimate of Q3 GDP, September New Home Sales and Retail Sales.

Other key indicators include the September Case-Shiller and FHFA house price indexes, and September Personal Income & Outlays (and PCE).


----- Monday, November 24th -----
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.

----- Tuesday, November 25th -----
8:30 AM: The Producer Price Index for September from the BLS. 

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September.

This graph shows graph shows the Year over year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The National index was up 1.5% YoY in August and is expected to increase about the same in September.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for September. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The Conforming loan limits for next year will also be announced.

Retail Sales 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for September will be released.  

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for November.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for October.

----- Wednesday, November 26th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product (Advance Estimate), 3rd Quarter 2025.

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November. 

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

10:00 AM: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, November 27th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.

----- Friday, November 28th -----
The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close early at 1:00 PM ET.

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

The Gizmo Empire: How a flair for infomercials, TikTok and an endless stream of whiz-bang home appliances turned SharkNinja into a $6 billion behemoth. (Bloomberg free)

AI 101: Economy: Five ways AI is driving growth. Artificial Intelligence is already a spark, accelerator and source of fuel for global economic growth. Even before it significantly moves the needle on productivity, there are five ways that AI is beginning to boost the economy – at least for now. (Deutsche Bank Securities)

The DoorDash Problem: How AI browsers are a huge threat to Amazon: Amazon’s lawsuit against Perplexity has blown the doors open on the great AI browser fight. (The Verge)

The Electric 911 Porsche Never Built: How One Tired 911, and One Austin Skunkworks Rewired an Icon (Everyday Driven)

Who Was the Foodie? What it would mean to take taste seriously again. The problem isn’t just about the domination of food culture by internet aesthetics. Instead, it’s about the way food enthusiasts use those aesthetics to curate away complexity and discomfort, leaving food systems unchallenged and food culture shallow. (Yale Review) see also ‘The English person with a Chinese stomach’: how Fuchsia Dunlop became a Sichuan food hero: The author has been explaining Sichuan cuisine to westerners for decades. But ‘Fu Xia’, as she’s known, has had a profound effect on food lovers in China, too. (The Guardian)

Med Spa Nation: There are almost as many med spas as McDonald’s in the US, ready to serve you a smoother forehead, glowier skin, and fuller lips. Are you safe placing an order? (Allure)

‘I awoke at ½ past 7’ Our cursed age of self-monitoring and optimisation didn’t start with big tech: as so often, the Victorians are to blame  (Aeon)

The Blue Book Burglar: High-Stakes Heists and Artistic: The Social Register was a who’s who of America’s rich and powerful—the heirs of robber barons, scions of political dynasties, and descendants of Mayflower passengers. It was also the perfect hit list for the country’s hardest-working art thief. (Atavist)

How do the pros get someone to leave a cult? Manipulate them into thinking it was their idea.  Two of the world’s leading cult interventionists live (with their parrot) in Philadelphia. They explain the art of coaxing people out of the most pernicious groups in the world. (The Guardian)

The Biggest Failure in a Century of Sneakers: The entirely avoidable disaster that was Steph Curry and Under Armour. (Slate)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Morgan Housel, whose new book, “The Art of Spending Money, Simple Choices for a Richer Life” was just published. His first book, “The Psychology of Money” sold over 10 million copies.

 

Fox News Poll: Voters say White House is doing more harm than good on economy

Source: Fox News

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

How Trump's Own Appointees Aided Russiagate Plot Against Him

Zero Hedge -

How Trump's Own Appointees Aided Russiagate Plot Against Him

Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearInvestigations,

When Obama administration officials manufactured U.S. intelligence tying Donald Trump to Moscow following his stunning 2016 victory, they had no idea Trump’s own political appointees would help them undermine Trump’s presidency – and his chances of reelection in 2020. 

RCI’s review of recently declassified documents and exclusive interviews with former Trump officials reveals for the first time how key members of Trump’s cabinet and other appointees during his first term shrouded the previous administration’s machinations and either deliberately or inadvertently misled the public into thinking the fake Russiagate intelligence was real. 

Former Special Counsel John Durham, former National Security Adviser John Bolton, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and former CIA Director Gina Haspel dismissed or buried evidence that cast doubt on a foundational document of the Russigate hoax – the Intelligence Community Assessment (ICA) prepared in the waning days of the Obama administration.  

Durham, who was appointed by Attorney General William Barr, stopped the declassification and release of key exculpatory evidence debunking the ICA on the eve of the 2020 election, which has not been reported previously. 

The ICA helped frame the false narrative, which led to multiple espionage investigations that dogged Trump throughout his first term: that Russian President Vladimir Putin had authorized dirty tricks to help Trump win the 2016 election. A 2018 government review of that document, which was chiefly prepared by Obama’s CIA Director John Brennan and his National Intelligence Director James Clapper, found that its most explosive claims were based on “one scant, unclear and unverifiable fragment of a sentence from one of the substandard [intelligence] reports,” according to a recently declassified report that Trump administration and, later, Biden administration officials had helped keep locked away in a CIA vault. It also cited as supporting intelligence debunked political dirt paid for by Hillary Clinton’s campaign. 

While these Trump-appointed officials may not have initiated the weaponization of the CIA against Trump, they facilitated it by hiding evidence that exposed the claims that Russia tried to help Trump as a fraud. By obscuring Joe Biden’s own role in perpetrating the hoax, they may have helped Obama’s vice president win the close race for the presidency in 2020. 

“The Russiagate betrayal continued in plain sight,” said former Trump national security adviser J.D. Gordon, with some in Trump’s own cabinet letting him twist in the wind instead of daylighting secreted material that would have cleared the clouds of suspicion hanging over his head before the 2020 election. 

John Bolton

The suppression can be traced back at least until mid-2018. That’s when Fred Fleitz, who was National Security Adviser John Bolton’s chief of staff, heard that investigators at his former employer, the House Intelligence Committee, were probing the raw intelligence in the ICA supporting the assessment's key judgments.  

A one-time CIA analyst himself, Fleitz was curious to learn what they had found during the previous year, interviewing CIA analysts and reviewing secret documents at Langley. So, he traveled to the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue and read a draft of the highly classified report in a secure room of the U.S. Capitol. 

Fleitz told RealClearInvestigations that he was startled to learn that the investigators discovered numerous intelligence documents showing the ICA’s key conclusion – that Russia “developed a clear preference” for Trump and “aspired to help” him win the election – was based on shoddy and fabricated intelligence. House investigators found those assessments were supported in part by the Steele dossier, a series of Clinton campaign-funded reports containing baseless accusations linking Trump to the Kremlin compiled by former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele. 

The ICA misrepresented both the significance and credibility of the dossier reports,” which were “either proven false or unsubstantiated,” the top-secret congressional analysis noted. “The ICA referred to the dossier as ‘Russian plans and intentions,’ falsely implying that the dossier had intelligence value for understanding Moscow's influence operations.”

Fleitz thought Bolton should be briefed on the unpublished House report, which undermined the prevailing narrative that Trump and Moscow had colluded during the 2016 election campaign. When he returned to his West Wing office, Fleitz sat down at his classified computer and wrote a synopsis of the review and gave it to his boss. 

But Bolton did not, in turn, brief the president. “He didn’t do anything with it. He never told Trump, and I never heard anything about it again,” Fleitz told RCI.  

If Trump had known about the shocking revelations from the classified report, Fleitz said, he could have used them to remove the cloud of suspicion hanging over his presidency concerning Russia. 

Bolton – who is facing unrelated criminal charges for mishandling other classified documents – and his lawyer did not respond to requests for comment. 

Mike Pompeo

What Fleitz did not know at the time was that the CIA was also hindering the House probe of the ICA. As Trump’s first CIA chief, Mike Pompeo was skeptical that his predecessor Brennan had gotten the Russia intelligence assessment as wrong as he was hearing from the autopsy conducted by the House Intelligence Committee. “We showed him a draft but he didn’t believe it. He said we have to be wrong on a lot of this stuff,” said Derek Harvey, who worked as a senior analysis adviser with the House Intelligence Committee from 2017 to 2022. 

As a result, he said, “We didn’t get a lot of cooperation from Pompeo.” 

Multiple attempts to reach Pompeo by email and phone at his new jobs as senior executive director of the Center for Law & Government at Liberty University in Virginia and adviser to Ukraine’s top defense contractor Fire Point in Kyiv were unsuccessful. 

Gina Haspel

Pompeo’s deputy at the time was Gina Haspel, who appears to have played a much more active role in drawing a veil over the information. A veteran CIA official whom Pompeo had put in charge of most of the day-to-day operations of the agency, she apparently didn’t appreciate congressional staffers investigating the agency’s spycraft that went into the highly classified and restricted version of the ICA. 

Sources told RCI she made sure the investigators’ on-site examination, which spanned from 2017 to 2020, was closely monitored and tightly controlled. The House investigators had to be cleared into a “read room” at Langley each day to examine the records the CIA used to support the ICA. And they were forced to lock up their laptops and materials there when they left at night. 

“Haspel didn’t allow them to take even their notes out of their workspace there,” Harvey said. “They couldn’t take anything out of the building.”

Another House Intelligence Committee source familiar with the operation said the investigators suspected the CIA “was spying on [committee] computers” back on Capitol Hill. They reported back to then-committee chairman Devin Nunes that the CIA had tampered with the computers the agency forced them to use to draft their report inside headquarters – and this was only after they were denied access to any computers in the first four months of their oversight investigation. 

“Deliberate technical modifications to the [CIA-issued] computers made the machines unstable and unreliable,” which slowed down investigators’ work, according to a committee report documenting the CIA’s efforts to “obstruct” their probe.

The report, which was obtained by RCI, added: “Peculiar machine glitches caused lines of text to appear fuzzy, forcing restarts to correct and sometimes resulting in lost text or footnotes.”

The investigators repeatedly requested “proper computers” to support the review, but were never provided with them. They were also denied software tools that would have allowed them to efficiently search large volumes of classified and unclassified reporting at the agency. Thousands of pages of intelligence reports relevant to the ICA were available only in paper form. The staffers had to comb through thick binders with broken rings and missing tab dividers, further hamstringing their audit. 

Pompeo and Haspel also placed restrictions on their access to Brennan’s five hand-picked authors of the ICA, who initially were kept at arm’s length. 

“It took nearly five months for committee staff to be allowed to interview the ICA authors,” the internal report said. 

Committee spokeswoman Lesley Byers told RCI, “Just getting interviews with the ICA drafters was a massive battle with the CIA back then, which further makes the point of the extraordinary measures the CIA went through to obstruct the HPSCI [House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence] staffers.” She added, “Why obstruct if there was nothing to hide?”

In May 2018, Trump appointed Pompeo as secretary of state and named Haspel as his replacement. Haspel came highly recommended to the job, with the support of many intelligence community veterans, including John Brennan, for whom she worked as London station chief and director of CIA operations. Before her 2018 confirmation hearing, Brennan signed a joint letter with 52 other former intelligence officials expressing his “strong support” for Haspel and arguing she was “an outstanding choice for that position.” He also assured senators she would produce “unbiased intelligence.”

After she took over the CIA, she locked up all drafts of the House Intelligence Committee report in a gun safe inside a vault in a highly secure room at CIA headquarters until she left office in January 2021. She also impounded all the examiners’ notes and other work materials. 

Gina Haspel buried the report,” Harvey said.

Knowledgeable sources say that before Haspel left, she demanded that both Barr and Durham keep the report classified and not release any part of it before the 2020 election. 

“In 2020, Gina Haspel was running around with her hair on fire saying it should never see the light of day,” a former senior official at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence said. “I still cannot believe that she was President Trump's CIA director. It’s totally insane.”

Fleitz described her efforts to block such exculpatory information from getting out as “insubordination to a U.S. president.”

Fluent in Russian, Haspel had long been an expert on the Kremlin and staked out hawkish positions that ran counter to many of Trump’s policies dealing with Moscow. 

It’s not clear if Haspel contributed to the ICA, but in 2016, she was the CIA’s station chief in London, where she assisted Russiagate investigators, including Peter Strzok. She reportedly approved his travel to London to meet with Australian diplomat Alexander Downer, who claimed Trump campaign adviser George Papadopoulos told him the Russians had dirt on Hillary Clinton. Haspel was briefed on the matter, which became the basis for the FBI’s Crossfire Hurricane investigation targeting several Trump advisers, including Papadopoulos. 

Haspel was also in London during the so-called “bump ops” the FBI ran on Papadopoulos and Trump’s national security adviser, Michael Flynn, where the bureau used longtime CIA asset Stef Halper to try to catch them having possible compromising contacts with Russians. 

Multiple attempts to reach Haspel by email and phone at her new job as chair of the CIA Officers Memorial Foundation in Herndon, Va., were unsuccessful.

A source familiar with Haspel’s thinking said she objected to releasing the report debunking the ICA because it might reveal sensitive intelligence, though its recent release proved no national security interests were harmed, including sources and methods.

John Durham

Nevertheless, as Trump’s first term drew to a close, there was one more opportunity to expose the Obama administration’s machinations. Ironically, that was forestalled by the special counsel who had been appointed to investigate the origins of the Russiagate hoax, John Durham. It was Trump’s attorney general, Barr, who tapped Durham, an old DOJ colleague and friend.

While Durham’s final report, which was not issued until 2023, raised serious questions about the Russiagate probe, his most significant decision may have occurred in the final days of the 2020 election when he quashed efforts to expose the plot to weaponize U.S. intelligence. That October, then-National Intelligence Director John Ratcliffe sought to declassify and release a devastating 44-page report that refuted the Obama-ordered Intelligence Community Assessment’s explosive finding that Moscow tried to swing the election to Trump. When the ICA was finally declassified this summer, it set off a firestorm of controversy, leading to the investigation of Brennan and Clapper and the indictment of former FBI Director James Comey. 

In 2020, however, Durham insisted the ICA review be kept under wraps. Durham argued he was using the secret report, drafted by two career House Intelligence Committee investigators, in his inquiry into whether the FBI and CIA had politicized and weaponized intel against Trump. 

“Durham specifically asked for that report to not be declassified and released, along with other things, because he wanted to use it as part of his investigation and prosecutions – or so we presumed,” the former senior ODNI intelligence official familiar with Ratcliffe’s declassification effort said. 

Ratcliffe, now CIA director, initially agreed to withhold the report, which remained buried for the next five years – until Trump’s new National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard declassified and publicly released it virtually unredacted in July.  

After we gave Durham the report, along with over a thousand pages of other classified documents, he went ghost,” said the former senior intelligence official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “We didn't hear from him, and he didn’t appear to do anything with the report.” 

Although Gabbard’s release of documents makes clear that the ICA was a foundational document in the Russiagate hoax, Durham all but ignored it in his final report on the scandal. Outside of a footnote on page 7 citing the ICA – which states, “[S]ee also Intelligence Community Assessment, ‘Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US. Elections’ (Jan. 6, 2017)” – there is no mention of the ICA elsewhere in his 316-page report. Nor does it appear in a recently declassified appendix to the report, even though Durham had interviewed the two Obama officials principally responsible for putting together the ICA – Brennan and Clapper.

“I have no clue why Durham left it out,” the former senior intelligence official said. 

Attempts to reach Durham for comment were unsuccessful. 

The declassified ICA is now being used as evidence in criminal probes of Obama-era figures, including Brennan, by the Justice Department. Prosecutors in the Southern District of Florida, who are reportedly trying to build a conspiracy of corruption case, recently issued a flurry of grand jury subpoenas targeting Brennan and Clapper, former FBI officials Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, and other Obama-era officials who were involved in the crafting of the ICA. They seek communications records and other documents covering the 2016-2017 period when classified versions of the assessment were drafted and an unclassified version was released to the public. 

Durham’s decisions are still influencing the debate over Russiagate. Washington media are skeptical prosecutors will find anything incriminating, because they maintain that Durham already plowed that ground. 

“John Durham, the special counsel appointed by the Trump administration, looked exhaustively at the Russian interference assessment and found no criminal wrongdoing,” MSNBC national security correspondent Ken Dilanian recently opined. “But here the Justice Department is trying to take another crack at this?” 

However, former Trump officials have come to doubt that Durham conducted anything approaching a thorough investigation of the matter. J.D. Gordon, a national security adviser to Trump, says the now-retired prosecutor merely “went through the motions.” 

“Since John Durham didn’t include relevant and incriminating information available to him about the criminal conspiracy against a duly elected president, history should remember his efforts as a dismal failure,” Gordon told RCI. 

“He treated nearly all conspirators with kid gloves,” Gordon added. “His gentle approach was the polar opposite of the [Special Counsel Robert] Mueller investigation, which relentlessly pursued Trump associates for anything under the sun, even though they were all innocent victims of the Russia ‘collusion’ hoax.”

Gordon notes that Mueller and his prosecuting staff, who found no evidence of a Trump-Russia conspiracy, dispatched FBI agents to grill Gordon three times between 2017 and 2019. They also got a grand jury to subpoena his phone records. House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jerry Nadler demanded Gordon provide additional documents in 2019, and he complied. A retired Navy commander and former Pentagon spokesman under President George W. Bush, Gordon said he was forced to run up a five-figure legal bill defending himself against the fake scandal. 

Rigged Intelligence

“The CIA engaged in a conspiracy to fabricate intelligence against Trump,” Harvey said. “They were effectively running an intelligence op targeting his campaign and presidency.” 

The ICA was a key piece of the conspiracy, he noted, because it was strategically used as a pretext to pursue countless espionage investigations of Trump and his advisers that crippled his presidency. 

A month after Trump defeated Clinton, President Obama ordered the CIA and other U.S. intelligence agencies to go back and review their prior assessments that found no evidence the Russian government tried to hack the election for Trump. 

Within just three weeks, the CIA came up with new evidence to conclude that Russian President Vladimir Putin personally launched an influence operation to help swing the race to Trump. The publicly released ICA report, which helped Obama and Clinton explain her shocking defeat, hid the fact that the CIA relied in part on the Clinton-funded dossier to reach its new conclusion. 

Career intelligence analysts objected to using the dossier, but Obama’s top spook, Brennan, overruled them. At least one senior intelligence analyst, now a whistleblower cooperating with the DOJ in its ongoing investigation of the Russiagate hoax, said he was “threatened” by superiors to change his pre-election assessment to conform with the new ICA. 

The whistleblower, who worked under then-DNI Clapper, also said he reached out to Special Counsel Durham's investigators to report suspicions of “manipulation” of raw intelligence that went into the ICA, but they never interviewed him, even though “I likely had information relevant to ongoing criminal investigations,” as RCI first reported

“They tried to make it seem like Trump was Putin’s candidate, but there really was no evidence that Putin was trying to support Trump,” Harvey said. “If you read the [HPSCI] report [on the ICA] carefully, both Brennan and Clapper come across as the real malign operators, and it turns out that both of them knew Hillary had this whole Russia operation going against Trump from the start.”

Brennan and Clapper did not return requests for comment through their lawyers. 

They rigged and politicized the intelligence,” added Fleitz, “and that was obvious to anyone who read that dynamite report.” This included Barr, Durham, Bolton, Pompeo, Haspel, and other Trump appointees who, instead of exposing the scandal, suppressed it. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 23:25

Gen Z Demands Cushy Jobs; The Economy Wants Grown-Ups...

Zero Hedge -

Gen Z Demands Cushy Jobs; The Economy Wants Grown-Ups...

While the US labor market defied expectations in September - adding 119,000 jobs according to delayed numbers, the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level in four years. Normally, this would be the time for most employees to make sure they're the most valuable asset at a company - especially with layoffs surging and AI slowly replacing entry level jobs across various industries. 

Seventyfour - stock.adobe.com

Yet, Gen Z workers don't seem to be getting the message. Instead of putting in long hours, many young workers remain convinced that work-life balance is their nonnegotiable right - even as the ground shifts beneath their feet.

Across industries, entry-level employees say they’re not responding to emails after 5 p.m., staying out late on work nights or carving out weeknight pickleball time - behaviors that would have been unthinkable for young workers during earlier periods of economic softening. Managers say the detachment is coming at the exact moment younger employees most need to demonstrate grit, reliability and value, according to the Wall Street Journal

Damaryan Benton, a 24-year-old at an advertising firm in Los Angeles, checks in with his supervisors before logging off and makes clear he won’t be working after hours. “After five if I’m not by my laptop, I’m not by it,” he said. “I don’t provide an explanation for it, either.

Nia Joseph, who works at a Houston ophthalmology practice, said she recently stayed out until 2 a.m. on a Sunday - even though she had to be at work before 8. A few years ago, she says, she would have gone home early. “It reminded me that I used to enjoy things a bit more,” she said.

Damaryan Benton, Nia Joseph

And Jessica Moran, a senior audit associate in New Jersey, said she made sure her manager understood that pickleball practice takes priority during certain weeknights.

"I was asking associates, senior associates and managers questions to gauge their work-life balance and what it truly looked like," the 24-year-old Moran told the WSJ, adding "For me, that means there must be work-life balance here."

The shared theme: Gen Z wants work to adapt to their lifestyle, not the other way around.

Older Workers See Red Flags. Gen Z Doesn’t.

Executives say the disconnect is widening just as the labor market shows unmistakable signs of cooling.

Companies are slowing hiring, eliminating positions and cautioning new employees that boundaries may be blurry. Historically, periods of economic uncertainty would prompt younger professionals to work harder to prove they could be counted on.

Gen X, when times get tough…what do we do? We work harder, we dig in more, we push,” said Marcie Merriman, founder of Ethos Innovation. Younger workers, she says, expect to be judged solely on output - not effort or availability.

That attitude may have made sense during the pandemic-era hiring boom, when job seekers had leverage. Today, employers say, it risks looking like complacency.

Gen Z Says Loyalty Doesn’t Pay. Employers Say Discipline Still Matters.

Part of the generational divide stems from the pandemic and the rise of remote work. Younger workers entered the workforce during a time when many employers emphasized mental health, flexibility and boundaries. Many watched family members burn out in traditional jobs. Joseph said her parents’ careers “completely took over their life,” a pattern she refuses to repeat.

But managers argue the pendulum has swung too far. In a stable job market, detachment may look like confidence. In a weakening one, it can look like a lack of commitment.

Gallup data shows younger workers are leading the drop in hours worked: nearly two hours fewer per week than before the pandemic. Older workers trimmed less than an hour.

The shifting priorities are showing up in shrinking work hours. Americans worked an average of 42.9 hours a week last year, down from 44.1 hours in 2019, according to a Gallup survey. Those younger than 35 led the decline, working an average of nearly two hours less a week, while older employees reduced their workweek by just under one hour.

Jim Harter, Gallup’s chief scientist for workplace management, said many younger employees “are still feeling disconnected from their employers” despite signs of a tougher market.

A Wake-Up Call Few Want to Hear

The stories of young workers reflect a belief that employers won’t - or can’t - penalize them for inflexibility. Yet the labor market is beginning to reward something Gen Z has been slower to embrace: resilience.

Benton recalls the pressure he once placed on himself as an intern, logging on at 7 a.m., working through illness and sometimes staying up past midnight. Now, he says he doesn’t go out of his way to take on extra work. When a deadline overwhelmed him during his internship, his manager encouraged him to take a break and extended the deadline. Today, he takes paid time off freely and doesn’t worry about after-hours requests.

Employees like Benton and Joseph see these boundaries as healthy. Executives see them as signals of a workforce unprepared for the demands of a more competitive job market.

The question looming over the next cycle is whether Gen Z will adjust—or whether employers will decide to prioritize workers who already have.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 23:00

New MAGA Weapon: 'Fight Tanks' For Rural America

Zero Hedge -

New MAGA Weapon: 'Fight Tanks' For Rural America

Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics,

Another conservative satellite has joined the Trump constellation.

Jenn Pellegrino, formerly chief spokesperson for the America First Policy Institute, has launched twin think tanks in time for a brewing fight on Capitol Hill over health care and ahead of the coming midterms. The GOP is scrambling to build legislation from scratch to lower health care costs when Biden-era Obamacare subsidies expire on Dec. 31. Those same Republicans are hoping to keep their seats in the election next year.

Enter Defend Forgotten America (DFA). Enter also Defend Forgotten America Action (DFAA).

The names are pulled directly from President Trump’s first victory speech when he vowed in 2016 that “the forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer.” The goal is to bridge the divide between flyover country and the D.C. beltway, between what Pellegrino describes as rural and small urban communities and “unelected Washington bureaucrats.”

Though still in its infancy, the groups already have a window into the White House. Chris LaCivita, Trump’s 2024 campaign manager, serves as an advisor to the mission, RealClearPolitics is first to report.

DFA will focus specifically on health care policy. The DFAA policy portfolio will include everything from agriculture to housing policy. Internally, they call themselves “fight tanks.” The shared mission statement: “Championing forgotten communities and restoring power to the people who built America.”

The right-wing universe is already vast – and increasingly decentralized. Mammoth organizations, like the Heritage Foundation and the America First Policy Institute, anchor the landscape, but numerous small upstarts now dot the horizon. All of them orbit one man, President Trump, who has redefined conservativism for the last decade, much in the same way as he remade the GOP in his own image.

The Pellegrino operation will be distinct in its emphasis on the local. A key issue, one that some Republicans feel has become a blind spot, is affordability.

“President Trump has done a great job on inflation. Look at gas prices – they’re down. The cost of eggs is certainly way down from what it was several months ago. But there’s still work to be done,” she told RCP in a brief interview.

“Just like Secretary Scott Bessent was saying recently, we’re not going to speak like the Biden administration did and say that everything is great,” she added, referencing the head of the Treasury Department. “We understand and see that Americans are still feeling pain on so many issues from health care to housing. Especially in rural communities, like the blue-collar one I grew up in upstate New York, a lot of them are living paycheck to paycheck. We are focusing on their issues.”

And two recent humanitarian disasters provide a rubric for just exactly what the organizations plan to do: the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio, and Hurricane Helene that ravaged North Carolina. A breakdown in communication, in both cases, slowed the response from the federal government.

In the face of future disasters, Pellegrino said the twin think tanks would get on the ground, not to write white papers, but to develop immediate policy proposals to guide the response. And then absent catastrophe, the organizations will seek to bring the concerns of rural Americans directly to D.C.

The Democratic brand has become radioactive in rural America. A former Newsmax host, Pellegrino is unabashedly conservative. The organization immediately makes clear its dissatisfaction with the left and liberal policy prescriptions. “They don’t understand us,” she says of Democratic politicians in a promo video, “because they have never lived like us.” Unsurprisingly, prominent Republicans have already welcomed the new group with open arms.

“We proved in 2024 that when you speak directly to working Americans in the communities the establishment ignores, you build an unstoppable coalition,” LaCivita said in a statement. “These organizations are built in that same spirit.”

New York Rep. Claudia Tenney heralded the new endeavor as “a strong advocate for the hardworking Americans who have been left behind for far too long.” Florida Rep. Anna Paulina Luna, meanwhile, described it as a bulwark against “corporations who have taken over via special interest efforts in Washington.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 22:35

Actor Anthony Mackie: "We've Been Living Through Death Of American Male For Twenty Years" 

Zero Hedge -

Actor Anthony Mackie: "We've Been Living Through Death Of American Male For Twenty Years" 

The left's war on men has spectacularly backfired as young men, once a reliably Democratic voting bloc, have led an exodus from the left to the right. 

Democrats are scrambling to figure out why, but the answer isn't complicated: the party is increasingly driven by Marxist ideology, embraces assassination culture, promotes anti-male values, pushes extremist pro-trans rhetoric, and promotes an anti-American agenda. 

Young men are gravitating toward the America First movement because its leaders project strength and advocate for common sense: two genders, the family unit, law and order, faith, and the core principles that have made the West exceptional.

In a recent interview, Anthony Mackie - star of the 2025 film Captain America: Brave New World - told the hosts of The Pivot Podcast that "for the past 20 years, we've been living through the death of the American male; they've killed masculinity in our communities."

"But I raise my boys to be young men and however you feel about that you feel about that. My boys will always be respectful. They will always say yes sir yes ma'am no sir no ma'am. They will always say thank you. They will always open a door for a lady. They will always make sure that their mother is taken care of and provided for. They will always be men, and that's always been the case since they were young," Mackie said.

Perhaps now that the Overton Window has shifted away from "woke and weak," it's time to confront the mess created by the Democratic Party's globalist agenda, which has waged a war on men and, with their Marxist nonprofits, such as Black Lives Matter, that declared war on the nuclear family (read here). 

"There's absolutely nothing wrong with a man who is manly and boys shouldn't be taught that there is. We're screwing up an entire generation here. We're politically correcting ourselves into extinction," Daisy Luther of the Organic Prepper blog noted many years ago. 

There is nothing wrong with masculinity; in fact, it built the nation - that's what men do. 

And with that understanding, it's fair to raise serious questions about the Democratic Party's war on men - and why it exists in the first place. If the goal is to undermine the nation by weakening men, confusing them about their identity, and eroding the foundations that hold the country together, then it becomes alarmingly clear that this agenda is aimed at destabilizing America from within

Why do globalists fear healthy men who eat beef and eggs? Clearly, they don't fear soy boys.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 22:10

How The Avalanche Of Academic Papers Threatens Scientific Research

Zero Hedge -

How The Avalanche Of Academic Papers Threatens Scientific Research

Authored by Vince Bielski via RealClearInvestigations,

This is the third part of a series on academic publishing. Read part one here and part two here.

For many years, the prestigious journal Philosophy & Public Affairs published about 14 peer-reviewed articles annually. So its small volunteer staff of renowned scholars was shocked to learn that its publisher, Wiley, was demanding a significant increase in production, at one point requiring 35 new articles within 60 days. 

Instead of compromising its peer-review process and rushing low-quality papers into print, then-Editor-in-Chief Anna Stilz at the University of California, Berkeley, led a revolt that culminated in the mass resignation of the journal’s entire editorial staff and board.

“Wiley told me if I didn’t publish more, I wouldn’t have a journal for long. These conversations were very hostile,” said Stilz, explaining the mass resignations. “I wanted to give our readers high-quality pieces. We were selective.”

The rebellion is one of the latest examples of the crisis engulfing the influential world of scholarly journals, which have been a foundation of research and learning for centuries. In recent years, Wiley and four other major publishers of academic literature, called the Big Five, have generated robust profit margins by ushering in large and unprecedented increases in the number of published papers. The globalization of research, with China emerging as the world’s leader a few years ago, and the ongoing ethos of “publish or perish” that’s the lifeblood of academic success, have generated an avalanche of scholarship. The Big Five has accommodated and encouraged it by launching new journals and special issues and fattening others.

Even scientists admit that much of academic publishing has run amok, overwhelming the quality-control methods of many of the 12,000 journals owned by Elsevier, Springer Nature, Taylor & Francis, Wiley, and Sage. As RealClearInvestigations has reported, unscrupulous paper mills are exploiting the publishing breakdown, producing a growing number of fraudulent articles with fake data and AI-generated text that’s tainting the world of science. 

The publishing mess has consequences outside the hallowed halls of academia. The $12 billion in annual revenue that the Big Five and smaller publishers collect from research papers is also an issue for taxpayers. A sizeable chunk of this revenue comes from public universities and federal grants that pay fees to publishers for making scholars’ articles available to readers through either journal subscriptions or freely on the internet. The fees, coupled with the low production costs – journal editors typically work for free – have given the Big Five profit margins in the 30%-40% range, matching Microsoft and Alphabet and surpassing Apple last year.  

“The biggest problem is that taxpayer money that was supposed to be spent on research instead goes to these publishing companies,” said University of Ottawa Professor Stefanie Haustein, a leading researcher of the publishing market. “I’m not saying publishing should be free, but these companies are making an insanely high profit. They are price gouging taxpayers.” 

NIH Moves To Rein In Fees

The Trump administration is moving to rein in the fees. Jay Bhattacharya, the director of the National Institutes of Health, said in July that the publishers’ article processing charges (APC) are “unreasonably high.” These charges are an increasingly popular alternative to subscriptions because papers become “open access,” or freely available to the public. To protect taxpayers, Bhattacharya said price caps or other restrictions will be placed on the publishing charges for NIH-funded papers starting in January. 

The Big Five oppose the caps, saying their fees fairly reflect the many costs involved in publishing. “An APC funding cap is a blunt instrument that would create more problems than it solves, restricting author choice, exacerbating inequities, and destabilizing the publishing ecosystem,” a Taylor & Francis spokesperson told RCI.

Some critics are looking beyond price caps for a “radical change in academic publishing,” according to a report by Cambridge University Press. It surveyed the views of 3,000 researchers, librarians, and funders and came to a conclusion that it admits is “surprising” for a publisher: The industry should churn out fewer articles, and focus on quality over quantity, while the academic community builds out lower-cost alternatives to commercial publishing. 

“[T]he sheer volume of publications threatens to overwhelm the ecosystem. Important work risks being lost or drowned out by a surge of low-quality or AI-generated content,” Mandy Hill, managing director of the press, wrote in the October report

Academic Publishing’s Secret Sauce

It’s hard to imagine a better business model than commercial academic publishing. The Big Five’s dominance, accounting for more than 50% of indexed published papers, has given them the market power to raise fees often above inflation, research shows. Universities are caught in a costly vicious circle: Although they often protest the fees that have increased to about $11 million a year on average, or about a third of a library’s total budget, they also pressure their scholars to publish at a brisk pace. That, in turn, ensures robust demand for space in journals, particularly the prestigious ones such as the Big Five’s Nature and Cell with the highest fees.

In addition to a captive market, academic publishers also enjoy a sizable cost savings particular to their industry. Publishers have various operational costs, but they don’t pay researchers who write the papers, editors who revise them (with the exception of a small honorarium for the editor-in-chief), and academic peer-reviewers who provide basic quality control. 

All told, the publication cost on average for a paper is about $400, while the average article processing charge collected by journals is $1800, according to a 2021 study by Alexander Grossmann of Leipzig University in Germany. 

“[T]he scholarly community must eventually make a number of decisions if it is to tackle the affordability problem,” writes Grossmann, a professor of publishing. “Are profit margins of 30-40% on taxpayer funds tolerable?”

The Big Five deny they are gouging taxpayers. A Taylor & Francis spokesperson told RCI that the charges are needed to cover “the full spectrum of publishing services, including submission and peer review management, editorial development, ethics checks and investigations, metadata tagging, indexing, metrics, content preservation, technology development and much more.” 

A Springer Nature spokesperson told RCI its article processing charges are in line with the expenses associated with publishing an article. “The outreach and editorial support we provide, the promotion of scientific work we conduct, and the infrastructure we maintain and invest in are all undertaken with one goal in mind: enhancing the reach and impact of research,” the spokesperson said.

Growth of the Big Five

The crisis in academic publishing has been decades in the making. In the 1970s, the Big Five controlled less than 10% of the market – sharing it with scientific societies and university publishers – mostly through journal subscriptions to libraries. The subscription model was controversial from the get-go, with the Library of Congress calling out the “sharp and alarming increases” in subscription prices – hovering between 5% and 12% in most years, well above inflation – that were “damaging to the development of the library’s” collections.

With stagnant university library budgets crushed under with weight of increasing subscription prices, a rebellion of academics and librarians gave rise to the open access movement in the early 2000s. It sought to both lower publishing costs and freely share papers with an expanding global research community in the developing world whose universities couldn’t afford multi-million-dollar subscriptions. Under open-access deals, universities or researchers would pay a one-time article-processing charge for each published paper, which would be freely available to the public forever, made possible by the internet.

The Big Five, having expanded their market share almost fivefold after two waves of consolidation in the 1990s, resisted the new open-access model first rolled out by a few smaller publishers, such as BioMed Central. But as open access gained steam, Springer gobbled up BioMed in 2008, a first step in the Big Five’s embrace of the model, giving it a second revenue stream. Today, researchers applaud the growth of open access, which accounts for almost half of all published papers globally, as a triumph for the dissemination of knowledge. But rather than reducing the costs of publishing, they keep going up. 

In an extensive study of fees from six major publishers for the period 2019-2023, Haustein, who codirects the Scholarly Communications Lab at Ottawa, found that researchers paid $2.5 billion in article processing charges to these publishers in 2023, triple the amount in 2019. Almost 90% of the journals had increased the charges, often above inflation. The average charge was about $2,900 per paper, with a high of $11,700 for high-profile journals.

Our analysis demonstrates that there is a massive amount of money spent on APCs and that this amount is growing at a rate that is almost certainly unsustainable,” co-author Haustein wrote.

When publishers are paid by the article, it provides an incentive to maximize production and helps explain the boom in papers. The total number of indexed articles soared 47% between 2016 and 2022 to 2.8 billion, according to a study by University of Exeter’s Mark Hanson. 

The publishing spike was led by MDPI, a big publisher devoted to open-access papers. It made most of its revenue from article processing charges for special issues built around a research theme. They epitomize the crisis of quantity over quality. For special issues, guest editors drive demand by soliciting articles from researchers, breaking with the standard practice of allowing researchers to submit papers when they are ready. The turnaround time from submission to acceptance is also sped up, according to Hanson’s study, allowing less time for editors to scrutinize articles for weaknesses and even fraud. And MDPI stood out among the publishers for having lower rejection rates of papers.

“If a publisher lowers its article rejection rates, all else being equal, this will lead to more articles being published,” Hanson wrote. “Such changes to rejection rate might also mean more lower-quality articles are being published.”

The blowup at Hindawi, another publisher focusing on special issues, alerted the publishing world to the magnitude of its fraud problem. Wiley bought Hindawi for $298 million in 2020, calling it an “innovator in open access publishing,” to expand into that fast-growing market and reap the article processing charges. Three years later, Wiley discovered that Hindawi had been heavily infiltrated by paper mills, forcing the retraction of 8,000 suspect articles and ending the Hindawi brand. It lives on as Exhibit A for an out-of-control publishing industry.

Detecting Fraudulent Paper Mills

The Big Five now say they are serious about curbing the publication of fraudulent papers, which are growing at an even faster rate than legitimate publications, according to a 2025 study. Springer Nature, which received 2.3 million submissions last year, has invested many millions in technology and a team of 75 experts to identify suspicious articles, such as AI-generated text and images, before publication and ensure the credibility of its research, the spokesperson said. Taylor & Francis says its integrity team prevents “thousands of fraudulent articles from being published every year.”

But plenty of flawed and fake papers continue to be published, which raises the question of whether the Big Five could be investing more in the battle against paper mills. For example, it can take years for journals to retract junk science articles after they have been flagged as suspicious, and by then it’s often too late, said Nancy Chescheir, chair of the Committee on Publication Ethics (COPE), which recently issued new guidelines to speed up the retraction process. “Editors need to act more quickly in retracting papers before they get included in systematic literature reviews and clinical care, which is happening,” Chescheir told RCI. 

Cleaning up the scientific literature, however, is at loggerheads with the exponential growth of papers each year. Busy editors, particularly at less prestigious journals that are most vulnerable to paper mill infiltration, don’t have the time and resources to promptly handle the complexities of figuring out if a paper should be retracted, said Chescheir, who has served as the editor in chief of two biomedical journals. 

Chescheir says publishers do need to devote more resources to protecting integrity, particularly for underfunded journals in the developing world. Wiley, for example, owns journals in China through its acquisition of Hindawi.

“The globalization of research is a wonderful thing, but as for providing resources that are adequate to deal with integrity problems across the globe, we are far away from that,” Chescheir said.

Breaking Away From the Big Five

A small number of journals have decided that the best way to protect their integrity is to break away from commercial publishing. Since the 1980s, the editorial boards of about 38 journals have declared their independence, mostly from the Big Five, and gone on to operate, typically under a new name, says Saskia van Walsum, a Ph.D. student researching this trend at the University of Ottawa. In the recent wave of breakaways, including Stilz’s philosophy journal, the push by publishers for more papers was a major complaint. 

Stilz’s successor journal, Free & Equal, embraces an alternative approach to academic publishing called “diamond open access” that harkens back centuries to a time when scholars were in charge. It’s a growing movement of thousands of small journals based on the principles that scholars shouldn’t pay to publish papers and the public shouldn’t pay to read them. 

The Open Library of Humanities (OLH), a nonprofit that publishes Free & Equal, started in 2013 to address the rising fees of the Big Five. Some 350 libraries, including the Ivies and major public universities in the U.S. and U.K., are backing OLH because they only pay a relatively small fee to the nonprofit, compared to what the Big Five charge, to enable the publication of its 34 titles.

While the economics of nonprofit publishing can work, breakaway journals like Free & Equal, founded in 2024, face a significant reputational challenge. Younger scholars need to publish in prestigious journals to build careers, and it can take several years for new titles like Free & Equal to receive an Impact Factor rating that signals their influence among researchers. Stilz says her new political philosophy journal has started strong, getting almost as many submissions as her former Wiley title.

You have to trust that your community will come with you when you do a mass resignation,” she said. “You don’t have a brand.” 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 21:45

US Will Likely Reach New Nuclear Deal With Iran, Trump Says

Zero Hedge -

US Will Likely Reach New Nuclear Deal With Iran, Trump Says

In a Friday interview with Fox, President Trump said Iran's nuclear program has been significantly set back and claimed that Tehran is now seeking an agreement with Washington.

He indicated in a somewhat surprising remark that a deal is likely, emphasizing that the situation has changed drastically in recent months, since the June US bombings of three key Iranian nuclear facilities. "They want to make a deal, and we will probably reach one," he said.

Via Reuters

Trump went on to describe what he views as broader regional shifts in the Middle East, commenting that the list of those interested in signing onto the historic Abraham Accords normalization program with Israel "keeps growing".

He hailed the unprecedented opportunity for peace, also nothing that the crisis with Hezbollah in Lebanon is now abating as well.

Trump actually said something similar during a Wednesday US-Saudi business forum in Washington DC, during Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's visit this week.

Speaking of strikes on Tehran, Trump told the audience, "We took the Dark Cloud away from your country, it was called Iran and its nuclear capability, and we obliterated that very quickly and strongly and powerfully. But that was a real cloud over the whole Middle East," he said.

"Now they want to make a deal. They want to make a deal. They want to see if they can work out a deal with us, and we'll be doing that probably. But that was a terrible cloud that you had to live with for a long time," he added.

But the reality remains that Iranian leaders see little incentive in making another deal (after the collapsed JCPOA) which the US could just pull out of at any time. 

This is also as prior to the June war with the Israel, Tehran had been actively engaged in good faith nuclear negotiations with Washington. But that was just a ruse, and the Islamic Republic suffered a major surprise assault from Israel and the US. There will be a perpetual 'trust' problem, to say the least.

Despite constantly proclaiming that it only has a peaceful nuclear energy program, the Iranians now have every incentive to possibly develop nuclear weapons in secret. This could eventually prove the major 'blowback' to the US decisions to mount unprovoked attacks on the country's nuclear centers.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 21:20

2 Chinese Nationals, 2 Americans Charged With Smuggling Nvidia Chips To China

Zero Hedge -

2 Chinese Nationals, 2 Americans Charged With Smuggling Nvidia Chips To China

Authored by Frank Fang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Two Chinese nationals and two U.S. citizens have been charged with a scheme to illegally export advanced Nvidia chips to China in violation of U.S. export controls, the Department of Justice said on Nov. 20.

In a file photograph, the logo of Nvidia Corporation during the annual Computex computer exhibition in Taipei, Taiwan, on May 30, 2017. Tyrone Siu/Reuters

Li Cham, 38, a California resident, and Chen Jing, 45, who resides in Florida on an F-1 nonimmigrant student visa, are the two Chinese nationals accused of the illegal exporting scheme. The two U.S. citizens are Ho Hong Ning, 34, a Florida resident born in Hong Kong, and Brian Curtis Raymond, 46, who resides in Huntsville, Alabama.

The four men are charged with multiple counts, including conspiracy to violate the Export Control Reform Act, smuggling, and conspiracy to commit money laundering, according to an indictment unsealed on Nov. 19.

Prosecutors allege the four defendants conspired from September 2023 through November of this year to illegally export advanced graphics processing units (GPUs), which have artificial intelligence (AI) applications, through the third countries of Malaysia and Thailand.

The indictment notes that the United States has put export restrictions on cutting-edge GPUs because China is developing supercomputing capabilities for its militarization efforts, including weapon designs and testing, as well as advancing its advanced surveillance tools.

“The indictment unsealed yesterday alleges a deliberate and deceptive effort to transship controlled Nvidia GPUs to China by falsifying paperwork, creating fake contracts, and misleading U.S. authorities,” Assistant Attorney General John A. Eisenberg, from the Justice Department’s National Security Division, said in a statement.

The National Security Division is committed to disrupting these kinds of black markets of sensitive U.S. technologies and holding accountable those who participate in this illicit trade.”

Prosecutors said the scheme relied on Tampa-based company Janford Realtor, owned by Ho and Li and not involved in real estate, which acted as a front to purchase and export the restricted GPUs to China.

Raymond’s Alabama-based electronics company was also allegedly involved in the scheme, supplying the restricted GPUs to Ho and others for illegal export.

Some 400 Nvidia A100 GPUs were exported in two shipments to China between October 2024 and January this year, prosecutors said.

Two subsequent shipments, involving 10 Hewlett Packard Enterprise supercomputers containing Nvidia H100 GPUs and 50 separate H200 GPUs, were “disrupted by law enforcement and therefore not completed,” prosecutors added.

The defendants were aware that a license was required for the exports, yet none sought or obtained one, according to prosecutors.

The indictment also alleges that the defendants received more than $3.89 million in wire transfers from China to fund their scheme.

According to the indictment, one of these transfers, in March this year, involved $1.15 million, sent from a Hong Kong-based Chinese company to a Bank of America account belonging to Raymond’s Alabama-based electronics company.

Another wire transfer, in November last year, involved $237,248 sent from another Hong Kong-based Chinese company to a Bank of America account belonging to Janford Realtor, according to the indictment.

According to the Justice Department, Ho and Chen appeared in court in the Middle District of Florida and Raymond in the Northern District of Alabama, all on Nov. 19. Li was scheduled to make his court appearance in the Northern District of California on Nov. 20.

Chen’s lawyer declined to comment when contacted by The Epoch Times.

The Epoch Times contacted Ho’s lawyer, but did not receive a response by publication time. The Epoch Times was unable to reach Raymond’s and Li’s lawyers for comment by publication time.

An Nvidia spokesperson told The Epoch Times that the export system is “rigorous and comprehensive.”

Even small sales of older generation products on the secondary market are subject to strict scrutiny and review,” the spokesperson said. “Trying to cobble together datacenters from smuggled products is a nonstarter, both technically and economically. Datacenters are massive and complex systems, making any smuggling extremely difficult and risky, and we do not provide any support or repairs for restricted products.”

Chairman of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) speaks during an interview with The Epoch Times in Washington on Oct. 21, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

On Nov. 20, Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), the chairman of the U.S. House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, called for urgent passage of a chip-tracking bill.

“China recognizes the superiority of American AI innovation and will do whatever it must to catch up,” he said. “That’s why the bipartisan Chip Security Act is urgently needed.”

The Chip Security Act would require location verification for advanced AI chips, enforce mandatory reporting from chipmakers on the potential diversion of their products, and task the Department of Commerce with studying additional necessary steps.

In August, two Chinese nationals in California were charged with allegedly shipping tens of millions of dollars’ worth of microchips to China. According to the case’s indictment, the microchips included Nvidia H100 GPUs.

Reuters contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 20:55

FAA Reports 400% Surge Of In-Flight Outbursts, DoT Launches Civility Campaign

Zero Hedge -

FAA Reports 400% Surge Of In-Flight Outbursts, DoT Launches Civility Campaign

Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy has launched “The Golden Age of Travel Starts with You” campaign ahead of the upcoming holiday travel season, aimed at triggering conversation nationwide over the return of civility in air travel, the Department of Transportation (DOT) said in a Nov. 19 statement.

Air travel has become more unruly over the years, DOT said. Since 2019, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has seen a 400 percent surge in in-flight outbursts from travelers, ranging from disruptive behaviors to violent actions.

Since 2021, there have been 13,800 unruly passenger incidents, with the 2024 numbers double that of 2019, according to the DOT.

Between 2020 and 2021, unruly passenger reports jumped six times. In 2021, one out of every five flight attendants reported experiencing physical incidents, DOT said.

In “The Golden Age of Travel Starts with You” campaign video, the DOT showed clips of various incidents involving unruly passengers, including physical fights onboard airplanes.

Duffy appears in the video, asking people to bring manners back in air travel.

Naveen Athrappully reports for The Epoch Times that the DOT said the campaign addresses the “record surge” in unruly passengers with potential improvements expected to make the travel experience better for people while ensuring the safety of passengers, pilots, flight attendants, and gate workers.

Duffy also asked potential flyers to think about the way they dress, whether they help pregnant women or the elderly, retain control of their children, and communicate with general courtesy.

“There’s no question we’ve lost sight of what makes travel fun—the excitement, the relaxation, the cordial conversations. Americans already feel divided and stressed. We can all do our part to bring back civility, manners, and common sense. When we can unite around shared values, we can feel more connected as a country,” DOT said.

“Along with building an all-new air traffic control system, surging air traffic control hiring, and making travel more family friendly, the Department of Transportation is committed to ushering [in] a Golden Age of Travel for the American people.”

The DOT campaign comes ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday period, which is expected to see 81.8 million individuals travel at least 50 miles from their homes between Nov. 25 and Dec. 1, according to a Nov. 17 statement from the American Automobile Association (AAA).

Out of this, 6 million are expected to travel via domestic flights, up by 2 percent from last year, said the association.

The number of air travelers over the past several years has remained between 5 million and 6 million, except during the 2020 COVID-19 period.

“A roundtrip domestic flight is averaging $700 which is similar to last year,” AAA said.

“It’s cheaper to fly on Thanksgiving Day itself, but the flight home is what drives up the ticket price since Sunday and Monday are the busiest return days. Some travelers shorten or extend their Thanksgiving trips to avoid flying on peak days.”

During the Thanksgiving season, unruly passengers can become more problematic, given the high traffic during this period.

According to FAA data, there have been 1,431 unruly passenger reports this year, as of Nov. 16, which have resulted in 142 investigations, 125 enforcement actions, and $2.1 million in fines.

The highest number of unruly passenger reports in this decade was registered in 2021 amid the pandemic, when the number hit 5,973.

“The rate of unruly passenger incidents steadily dropped by over 80 percent since record highs in early 2021, but recent increases show there remains more work to do,” the FAA said.

In November 2021, the FAA and the FBI issued a joint statement informing people that the FAA would refer unruly passenger cases to the FBI to conduct criminal case reviews.

Meanwhile, the recent end of the federal government shutdown has resulted in the FAA lifting all restrictions on commercial flights at major American airports, said a Nov. 20 statement from travel insurance comparison company Squaremouth.

The lifting of restrictions has “helped ease the worries of those who considered canceling or delaying their travel plans,” it said, adding that “operations are normalizing just in time for the busy holiday travel season.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 20:30

Studies Back Government On Childhood Gender Dysphoria

Zero Hedge -

Studies Back Government On Childhood Gender Dysphoria

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Newly released peer reviews of a federal report rejecting medical interventions for children with gender dysphoria called the government analysis “scientifically sound” and “compelling.”

Protesters in front of the Supreme Court as the high court hears a case over banning gender procedures for minors, in Washington on Dec. 4, 2024. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The reviews were released on Nov. 19 for a government report titled “Treatment for Pediatric Gender Dysphoria: Review of Evidence and Best Practices,” which was commissioned by the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) and originally released on May 1.

The HHS report was prompted by a January executive order from President Donald Trump on protecting children from chemical and surgical mutilation. In part, the order states that the federal government will not “fund, sponsor, promote, assist, or support the so-called ’transition' of a child from one sex to another.”

HHS stated in the report that the issue needed to be examined because of an “emphasis on medicalization” in pediatric gender medicine in the United States. The 409-page report emphasized therapy’s benefits instead.

“Psychotherapy is a noninvasive alternative to endocrine and surgical interventions for the treatment of pediatric gender dysphoria,“ it reads. ”Systematic reviews of evidence have found no evidence of adverse effects of psychotherapy in this context.”

In a Nov. 19 statement regarding the updated report, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. called medical interventions such as hormones and surgery “malpractice.”

The American Medical Association and the American Academy of Pediatrics peddled the lie that chemical and surgical sex-rejecting procedures could be good for children,” Kennedy said. “They betrayed their oath to first do no harm, and their so-called ‘gender-affirming care’ has inflicted lasting physical and psychological damage on vulnerable young people.”

National Debate

Leor Sapir, an HHS report author and senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, agreed that the report represents an important milestone in how childhood gender dysphoria should be treated.

“At the highest level, this is the closest the United States has ever got, and probably will ever get, to a scientific debate about this topic,” Sapir told The Epoch Times.

National Institutes of Health Director Dr. Jay Bhattacharya said in the Nov. 19 statement that the report’s evidence documents the “risks the profession has imposed on vulnerable children.”

“This report marks a turning point for American medicine,” he said.

Peer reviews from professors, doctors, and researchers were positive overall. The only review from a professional psychiatric group came from the American Psychiatric Association (APA). Two unsolicited negative articles were included, and HHS responded to them as well.

The APA, as the sole professional association to provide a formal peer review, said the report’s underlying methodology lacked “sufficient transparency and clarity for its findings to be taken at face value.”

It also criticized the report for failing to identify potential harm from withholding medical interventions, citing higher rates of depression, anxiety, and suicidal thoughts. Likewise, it condemned the report for not immediately disclosing report authors and any potential conflicts of interest.

In its reply to the APA, HHS responded that it was an established practice in scientific reviews to withhold authors’ names until after peer review so that the focus would be on the research.

The agency pointed out that two Belgian methodologists reviewed the report. Trudy Bekkering and Dr. Patrik Vankrunkelsven both work with the Belgian Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine. Bekkering and Vankrunkelsven found the report’s methodology “robust” without major issues in its methodology or conclusion.

Sapir called the validation of methodology extremely important because major flaws would damage the report’s credibility.

That’s the beating heart of this review,” he said.

HHS noted that evidence underpinning the alleged benefits of medical interventions is “very uncertain.”

The agency also invited the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Endocrine Society to participate in the review. They criticized the report but did not offer a peer review.

HHS also addressed accusations that the report was biased, used misleading evidence, violated scientific norms, and relied too heavily on the Cass report.

The Cass report, a 2024 report to the UK’s National Health Service, resulted in a shift away from the gender affirmation model for children to a more conservative approach. The National Health Service significantly curtailed the prescribing of puberty blockers because there was insufficient evidence that puberty blockers benefited patients.

Leaders in pediatric gender medicine have criticized the HHS report in two journal commentaries.

The first commentary, “A Critical Scientific Appraisal of the Health and Human Services Report on Pediatric Gender Dysphoria,” appeared in the Journal of Adolescent Health in September. The second, “Scientific Integrity and Pediatric Gender Healthcare: Disputing the HHS Review,” was published in Sexuality Research and Social Policy in October.

The commentaries state, among other complaints, that the report does not name its authors, has factual errors, and misrepresents scientific evidence.

HHS noted that none of the government report’s contributors was employed by the agency and that its conclusions were reproducible and in line with scholarly norms.

The agency also stated that the Cass report has been accepted by both major political parties in the UK but noted that criticism was expected.

“It is not surprising that gender clinicians and the professional associations that represent them would disparage a review that upended their favored treatment model in the [UK],” HHS stated.

The Trevor Project, a nonprofit that describes itself as a suicide prevention group for the LGBT community, said in a Facebook post that the report “dismisses the validity of transgender health care.”

Positive Peer Reviews

However, most peer reviewers found that the government analysis met professional standards and had no major flaws.

“This is an important and timely work. It is well written, methodologically rigorous, and makes a significant contribution to the discussion on this topic,” Johan C. Bester, professor of family and community medicine and health care ethics at Saint Louis University School of Medicine, wrote in his peer review.

“What the Cass review did in the UK, the [HHS] review does in the United States.”

Several European nations, including the UK, have restricted or banned pharmaceutical and medical interventions for gender dysphoric children, citing concerns over effectiveness and long-term effects. Similarly, 27 U.S. states have enacted laws limiting so-called gender-affirming care for minors, according to KFF, a health policy research and news outlet.

Bester went on to write that the current practice of offering medical intervention to help youths with gender dysphoria “ought not continue.” He stated that much research is still needed on the causes of gender dysphoria, its natural course, and treatments.

Others, such as Dr. Richard Santen, professor emeritus of endocrinology at the University of Virginia School of Medicine, said the overall assessment of the studies in the report “was scientifically sound.”

Karleen Gribble, professor at the School of Nursing and Midwifery at Western Sydney University, applauded the report’s commitment to using scientifically accurate, neutral terminology. She said that rejecting terminology such as “sex assigned at birth” was “well-argued.”

HHS said the goal of the report was to provide accurate and current information on the treatment of children distressed over their biological sex.

Our duty is to protect our nation’s children—not expose them to unproven and irreversible medical interventions,” Bhattacharya said when the report was published in May.

“We must follow the gold standard of science, not activist agendas.”

Zachary Stieber contributed to this report.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 20:05

DOJ Sues California To End In-State College Tuition For Illegal Immigrants

Zero Hedge -

DOJ Sues California To End In-State College Tuition For Illegal Immigrants

U.S. Attorney Pamela Bondi has filed a federal court complaint challenging laws in the Golden State that provide in-state tuition rates, scholarships, and subsidized loans to illegal immigrants, she said on Thursday.

Those laws are unconstitutional and discriminate against American citizens who are not afforded the same benefits to attend colleges and universities, she said in a Nov. 20 statement.

“This marks our third lawsuit against California in one week,” she said.

“We will continue bringing litigation against California until the state ceases its flagrant disregard for federal law.”

As Aaron Gifford reports for The Epoch Times, the lawsuit, filed in the Eastern District of California federal court, names California Gov. Gavin Newsom and other agencies that oversee the state’s public university system.

The lawsuit said the “California Dream Act,” which exclusively provides scholarships and subsidized loans, is illegal and unconstitutional.

It cites two executive orders signed by President Donald Trump earlier in 2025 that prohibit illegal immigrants from obtaining taxpayer benefits or preferential treatment.

The Epoch Times has reached out to Newsom’s press office.

Under a 1996 law passed under President Bill Clinton, the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act, public universities cannot charge U.S. citizens out-of-state tuition rates if they are providing in-state discounts to illegal immigrants.

The DOJ previously filed similar lawsuits against five states. Texas, Oklahoma, and Kentucky complied with the federal agency’s request and no longer offer discounted tuition to illegal immigrants, while cases are pending against Illinois and Minnesota.

In-state tuition at most of California’s public colleges and universities is less than $10,000 annually, but out-of-state tuition exceeds $30,000, according to the National Center for Education Statistics.

About 62 percent of the nation’s foreign-born population lives in states with “tuition-equity” laws, according to an Aug. 6 report from the National Immigration Law Center.

More than 500,000 illegal immigrants are enrolled at U.S. colleges and universities, both public and private.

California leads with 103,000, followed by Texas with 73,000, and Florida with 49,000, according to the Higher Ed Immigration Portal.

The California State University system website notes that its Dream Center offers benefits exclusively for students who are the children of illegal immigrants or are illegal immigrants themselves.

This includes grants, loans, scholarships, legal assistance, and various campus support services.

“We seek support for our Dreamers and DACA recipients—and those across the country—to honor their humanity, to remove inequitable and unfair barriers that stand between them and the fulfillment of their personal and professional dreams,” Mildred García, the state university system chancellor, says in a statement on the website.

“That’s what the CSU stands for—that’s what we do—and at a scale greater than any other university system in the world.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 19:40

CDC Says Vaccines May Cause Autism

Zero Hedge -

CDC Says Vaccines May Cause Autism

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now says that it’s possible vaccines cause autism, in a reversal of its previous stance.

A sign at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) headquarters in Atlanta, Ga., on Aug. 25, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

The claim ‘vaccines do not cause autism’ is not an evidence-based claim because studies have not ruled out the possibility that infant vaccines cause autism,” the CDC said in a Nov. 19 update to its website. “Studies supporting a link have been ignored by health authorities.”

The CDC cited a 2006 paper that analyzed surveys of parents with children who have autism and found many parents believed vaccines caused the disorder, which has symptoms including difficulty communicating.

It also said that the rise in the prevalence of autism in the United States correlates with an increase in the number of vaccines given to young children.

“Though the cause of autism is likely to be multi-factorial, the scientific foundation to rule out one potential contributor entirely has not been established,” the CDC said. “For example, one study found that aluminum adjuvants in vaccines had the highest statistical correlation with the rise in autism prevalence among numerous suspected environmental causes. Correlation does not prove causation, but it does merit further study.”

A small number of studies have found an association between certain vaccines and autism. Others have identified no increased risk in autism following receipt of the measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine, including two papers that cited the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the CDC’s parent agency, in a 2021 report, which said there is no evidence that the vaccine causes autism.

An earlier report from the agency said evidence was insufficient to rule on an association between vaccines against diphtheria, tetanus, pertussis, and hepatitis B and autism.

“In fact, there are still no studies that support the claim that any of the 20 doses of the seven infant vaccines recommended for American children before the first year of life do not cause autism,” the CDC said in the update to its site.

It said that there are issues with the studies on autism and the measles vaccine, including that they are retrospective rather than prospective.

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said at a Nov. 17 event, responding to a college student who said that vaccines do not cause autism, that “the people who told you that have been lying to you.” He said the studies on the matter should, but do not, compare health outcomes in a vaccinated group and an unvaccinated group, and that HHS is conducting those studies.

HHS is currently engaged in an investigation into the causes of autism, which includes evaluating “plausible biologic mechanisms between early childhood vaccinations and autism,” the CDC said on Nov. 19. The evaluation will include aluminum salts, which are used as adjuvants in many childhood vaccines.

The CDC had previously said on the site that “studies have shown that there is no link between receiving vaccines and developing autism spectrum disorder” and that no links have been found between any vaccine ingredients and the disorder.

The updated page maintains the sentence “vaccines do not cause autism” under an agreement between health officials and Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), chairman of the Senate Health Committee. A spokesperson for Cassidy, who said during Kennedy’s confirmation hearing that vaccines do not cause autism, did not return a request for comment.

A separate CDC page, last updated in 2024, says that studies show vaccines are not associated with autism.

Children’s Health Defense, a nonprofit that says it wants to end childhood health epidemics by eliminating exposure to toxins and which was previously chaired by Kennedy, welcomed the CDC update.

“Finally, the CDC is beginning to acknowledge the truth about this condition that affects millions, disavowing the bold, long-running lie that ‘vaccines do not cause autism,'” Mary Holland, CEO and president of the group, told The Epoch Times in an email. “No studies have ever proved this irresponsible claim; on the contrary, many studies point to vaccines as the plausible primary cause of autism.”

Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist, wrote on BlueSky that “for the first time in my career, I can’t tell people to trust what the CDC website says.”

Dr. Jake Scott, an infectious disease physician at Stanford University, said on her blog that the updated page “contradicts what we’ve learned from tracking millions of children over decades” and expressed concern that the new language would lead to parents delaying or skipping recommended vaccines for children.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 19:15

Top Funds' Activity in Q3 2025

Pension Pulse -

It's that time of the year again where we get a sneak peek into the portfolios of the world's top money managers, with a 45-day lag. And in this market, 45 days is a lifetime because things change on an hourly basis.

This was a crazy week trading. I will first give you the list of symbols I'm tracking daily this week: AAPL, GOOG, AMD, AVGO, MU, NVDA, MSFT, AMZN, TSLA, META, CLS, ORCL, BE, OKLO.

Then, let's see what were the worst performing large cap US stocks this week:

Not surprisingly, with bitcoin hitting a fresh low of $84,100, down 11% this week, anything related to crypto got obliterated.

But there were other stocks like Micron (MU) that also got hit hard as did Oracle (ORCL), Palantir (PLTR) and a bunch of other high flyers like quantum computing stocks (see the full list here). 

Why am I sharing you this list of stocks that got dinged hard this week? Because I'm 100% confident these are the stocks big hedge funds are buying to close out their year.

That data will only be available on February 15th but I've been doing this long enough to know when Wall Street is manufacturing a bogus selloff and this week was a bogus selloff

They waited till Nvidia reported another blowout earnings report to sell the news and it just feels too well orchestrated.  

Never mind what Ray Dalio said on CNBC, listen to me, the stocks on this list are all going to rip higher next month and in January. 

The Fed will cut rates in December and off we go again into another rally which is likely going to start next week before US Thanksgiving then go on till Christmas and beyond (Santa Claus rally).

All this to say, I couldn't care less what hedge funds were buying last quarter, I live in the moment, and having traded long enough, I can feel when it's a bogus selloff and when it's the real deal. 

This isn't the real deal, the AI bubble is alive, you'll see it come back with a vengeance as hedge funds use weakness to reload again.

So, take at these filings with a gain of salt, use the weakness to load up on Micron, Oracle, Meta, and plenty of more stocks that are down 30, 40% or more in two months.

That's my best advice to you, enjoy your weekend!

The links below take you straight to the top holdings of top money managers and then click to see where they increased and decreased their holdings.

Top multi-strategy, event driven hedge funds and large hedge fund managers

As the name implies, these hedge funds invest across a wide variety of hedge fund strategies like L/S Equity, L/S credit, global macro, convertible arbitrage, risk arbitrage, volatility arbitrage, merger arbitrage, distressed debt and statistical pair trading. Below are links to the holdings of some top multi-strategy hedge funds I track closely:

1) Appaloosa LP

2) Citadel Advisors

3) Balyasny Asset Management

4) Point72 Asset Management (Steve Cohen)

5) Millennium Management

6) Farallon Capital Management

7) Shonfeld Strategic Partners 

8) Walleye Capital 

9) Verition Fund Management 

10) Peak6 Investments

11) Kingdon Capital Management

12) HBK Investments

13) Highbridge Capital Management

14) Highland Capital Management

15) Hudson Bay Capital Management

16) Pentwater Capital Management

17) Sculptor Capital Management (formerly known as Och-Ziff Capital Management)

18) ExodusPoint Capital Management

19) Carlson Capital Management

20) Magnetar Capital

21) Whitebox Advisors

22) QVT Financial 

23) Paloma Partners

24) Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisors

25) York Capital Management

Top Global Macro Hedge Funds and Family Offices

These hedge funds gained notoriety because of George Soros, arguably the best and most famous hedge fund manager. Global macros typically invest across fixed income, currency, commodity and equity markets.

George Soros, Carl Icahn, Stanley Druckenmiller, Julian Robertson  have converted their hedge funds into family offices to manage their own money.

1) Soros Fund Management

2) Icahn Associates

3) Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller)

4) Bridgewater Associates

5) Pointstate Capital Partners 

6) Caxton Associates (Bruce Kovner)

7) Tudor Investment Corporation (Paul Tudor Jones)

8) Discovery Capital Management (Rob Citrone)

9) Moore Capital Management

10) Rokos Capital Management

11) Element Capital

12) Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation Trust (Michael Larson, the man behind Gates)

Top Quant and Market Neutral Hedge Funds

These funds use sophisticated mathematical algorithms to make their returns, typically using high-frequency models so they churn their portfolios often. A few of them have outstanding long-term track records and many believe quants are taking over the world. They typically only hire PhDs in mathematics, physics and computer science to develop their algorithms. Market neutral funds will engage in pair trading to remove market beta. Some are large asset managers that specialize in factor investing.

1) Alyeska Investment Group

2) Renaissance Technologies

3) DE Shaw & Co.

4) Two Sigma Investments

5) Cubist Systematic Strategies (a quant division of Point72)

6) Man Group

7) Analytic Investors

8) AQR Capital Management

9) Dimensional Fund Advisors

10) Quantitative Investment Management

11) Oxford Asset Management

12) PDT Partners

13) TPG Angelo Gordon

14) Quantitative Systematic Strategies

15) Quantitative Investment Management

16) Bayesian Capital Management

17) SABA Capital Management

18) Quadrature Capital

19) Simplex Trading

Top Deep Value, Activist, Growth at a Reasonable Price, Event Driven and Distressed Debt Funds

These are among the top long-only funds that everyone tracks. They include funds run by legendary investors like Warren Buffet, Seth Klarman, Ron Baron and Ken Fisher. Activist investors like to make investments in companies where management lacks the proper incentives to maximize shareholder value. They differ from traditional L/S hedge funds by having a more concentrated portfolio. Distressed debt funds typically invest in debt of a company but sometimes take equity positions.

1) Abrams Capital Management (the one-man wealth machine)

2) Berkshire Hathaway

3) TCI Fund Management

4) Baron Partners Fund (click here to view other Baron funds)

5) BHR Capital

6) Fisher Asset Management

7) Baupost Group

8) Fairfax Financial Holdings

9) Fairholme Capital

10) Gotham Asset Management

11) Fir Tree Partners

12) Elliott Investment Management (Paul Singer)

13) Jana Partners

14) Miller Value Partners (Bill Miller)

15) Highfields Capital Management

16) Eminence Capital

17) Pershing Square Capital Management

18) New Mountain Vantage  Advisers

19) Atlantic Investment Management

20) Polaris Capital Management

21) Third Point

22) Marcato Capital Management

23) Glenview Capital Management

24) Apollo Management

25) Avenue Capital

26) Armistice Capital

27) Blue Harbor Group

28) Brigade Capital Management

29) Caspian Capital

30) Kerrisdale Advisers

31) Knighthead Capital Management

32) Relational Investors

33) Roystone Capital Management

34) Scopia Capital Management

35) Schneider Capital Management

36) ValueAct Capital

37) Vulcan Value Partners

38) Okumus Fund Management

39) Eagle Capital Management

40) Sasco Capital

41) Lyrical Asset Management

42) Gabelli Funds

43) Brave Warrior Advisors

44) Matrix Asset Advisors

45) Jet Capital

46) Conatus Capital Management

47) Starboard Value

48) Pzena Investment Management

49) Trian Fund Management

50) Oaktree Capital Management

51) Fayez Sarofim & Co 

52) Southeastern Asset Management 

Top Long/Short Hedge Funds

These hedge funds go long shares they think will rise in value and short those they think will fall. Along with global macro funds, they command the bulk of hedge fund assets. There are many L/S funds but here is a small sample of some well-known funds.

1) Adage Capital Management

2) Viking Global Investors

3) Greenlight Capital

4) Maverick Capital

5) Pointstate Capital Partners 

6) Marathon Asset Management

7) Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman)

8) Coatue Management

9) D1 Capital Partners

10) Artis Capital Management

11) Fox Point Capital Management

12) Jabre Capital Partners

13) Lone Pine Capital

14) Paulson & Co.

15) Bronson Point Management

16) Hoplite Capital Management

17) LSV Asset Management

18) Hussman Strategic Advisors

19) Cantillon Capital Management

20) Brookside Capital Management

21) Blue Ridge Capital

22) Iridian Asset Management

23) Clough Capital Partners

24) GLG Partners LP

25) Cadence Capital Management

26) Honeycomb Asset Management

27) New Mountain Vantage

28) Penserra Capital Management

29) Eminence Capital

30) Steadfast Capital Management

31) Brookside Capital Management

32) PAR Capital Capital Management

33) Gilder, Gagnon, Howe & Co

34) Brahman Capital

35) Bridger Management 

36) Kensico Capital Management

37) Kynikos Associates

38) Soroban Capital Partners

39) Passport Capital

40) Pennant Capital Management

41) Mason Capital Management

42) Tide Point Capital Management

43) Sirios Capital Management 

44) Hayman Capital Management

45) Highside Capital Management

46) Tremblant Capital Group

47) Decade Capital Management

48) Suvretta Capital Management

49) Bloom Tree Partners

50) Cadian Capital Management

51) Matrix Capital Management

52) Senvest Partners

53) Falcon Edge Capital Management

54) Park West Asset Management

55) Melvin Capital Partners (Plotkin shut down Melvin after reeling rom Redditor attack)

56) Owl Creek Asset Management

57) Portolan Capital Management

58) Proxima Capital Management

59) Tourbillon Capital Partners

60) Impala Asset Management

61) Valinor Management

62) Marshall Wace

63) Light Street Capital Management

64) Rock Springs Capital Management

65) Rubric Capital Management

66) Whale Rock Capital

67) Skye Global Management

68) York Capital Management

69) Zweig-Dimenna Associates

Top Sector and Specialized Funds

I like tracking activity funds that specialize in real estate, biotech, healthcare, retail and other sectors like mid, small and micro caps. Here are some funds worth tracking closely.

1) Avoro Capital Advisors (formerly Venbio Select Advisors)

2) Baker Brothers Advisors

3) Perceptive Advisors

4) RTW Investments

5) Healthcor Management

6) Orbimed Advisors

7) Deerfield Management

8) BB Biotech AG

9) Birchview Capital

10) Ghost Tree Capital

11) Soleus Capital Management

12) Oracle Investment Management

13) Palo Alto Investors

14) Consonance Capital Management

15) Camber Capital Management

16) Redmile Group

17) Casdin Capital

18) Bridger Capital Management

19) Boxer Capital

20) Omega Fund Management

21) Bridgeway Capital Management

22) Cohen & Steers

23) Cardinal Capital Management

24) Munder Capital Management

25) Diamondhill Capital Management 

26) Cortina Asset Management

27) Geneva Capital Management

28) Criterion Capital Management

29) Daruma Capital Management

30) 12 West Capital Management

31) RA Capital Management

32) Sarissa Capital Management

33) Rock Springs Capital Management

34) Senzar Asset Management

35) Paradigm Biocapital Advisors

36) Sphera Funds

37) Tang Capital Management

38) Thomson Horstmann & Bryant

39) Ecor1 Capital

40) Opaleye Management

41) NEA Management Company

42) Sofinnova Investments 

43) Great Point Partners

44) Tekla Capital Management

45) Van Berkom and Associates

Mutual Funds and Asset Managers

Mutual funds and large asset managers are not hedge funds but their sheer size makes them important players. Some asset managers have excellent track records. Below, are a few funds investors track closely.

1) Fidelity

2) BlackRock Inc

3) Wellington Management

4) AQR Capital Management

5) Sands Capital Management

6) Brookfield Asset Management

7) Dodge & Cox

8) Eaton Vance Management

9) Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co.

10) Geode Capital Management

11) Goldman Sachs Group

12) JP Morgan Chase & Co.

13) Morgan Stanley

14) Manulife Asset Management

15) UBS Asset Management

16) Barclays Global Investor

17) Epoch Investment Partners

18) Thornburg Investment Management

19) Kornitzer Capital Management

20) Batterymarch Financial Management

21) Tocqueville Asset Management

22) Neuberger Berman

23) Winslow Capital Management

24) Herndon Capital Management

25) Artisan Partners

26) Great West Life Insurance Management

27) Lazard Asset Management 

28) Janus Capital Management

29) Franklin Resources

30) Capital Research Global Investors

31) T. Rowe Price

32) First Eagle Investment Management

33) Frontier Capital Management

34) Akre Capital Management

35) Brandywine Global

36) Brown Capital Management

37) Victory Capital Management

38) Orbis Allan Gray

39) Ariel Investments 

40) ARK Investment Management

Canadian Asset Managers

Here are a few Canadian funds I track closely:

1) Addenda Capital

2) Letko, Brosseau and Associates

3) Fiera Capital Corporation

4) West Face Capital

5) Hexavest

6) 1832 Asset Management

7) Jarislowsky, Fraser

8) Connor, Clark & Lunn Investment Management

9) TD Asset Management

10) CIBC Asset Management

11) Beutel, Goodman & Co

12) Greystone Managed Investments

13) Mackenzie Financial Corporation

14) Great West Life Assurance Co

15) Guardian Capital

16) Scotia Capital

17) AGF Investments

18) Montrusco Bolton

19) CI Investments

20) Venator Capital Management

21) Van Berkom and Associates

22) Formula Growth

23) Hillsdale Investment Management

Pension Funds, Endowment Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds and the Fed's Swiss Surrogate

Last but not least, I the track activity of some pension funds, endowment, sovereign wealth funds and the Swiss National Bank (aka the Fed's Swiss surrogate). Below, a sample of the funds I track closely:

1) Alberta Investment Management Corporation (AIMco)

2) Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan

3) Canada Pension Plan Investment Board

4) Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec

5) OMERS Administration Corp.

6) Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP)

7) British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI)

8) Public Sector Pension Investment Board (PSP Investments)

9) PGGM Investments

10) APG All Pensions Group

11) California Public Employees Retirement System (CalPERS)

12) California State Teachers Retirement System (CalSTRS)

13) New York State Common Fund

14) New York State Teachers Retirement System

15) State Board of Administration of Florida Retirement System

16) State of Wisconsin Investment Board

17) State of New Jersey Common Pension Fund

18) Public Employees Retirement System of Ohio

19) STRS Ohio

20) Teacher Retirement System of Texas

21) Virginia Retirement Systems

22) TIAA CREF investment Management

23) Harvard Management Co.

24) Norges Bank

25) Nordea Investment Management

26) Korea Investment Corp.

27) Singapore Temasek Holdings 

28) Yale Endowment Fund

29) Swiss National Bank (aka, the Fed's Swiss surrogate)

Below, Bill Eigen, JPMorgan Asset Management CIO of absolute return fixed income, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's interest rate decision, latest market trends, what to make of the recent volatility, health of the private credit market, and more.

Also, John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer chief investment strategist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss where to look for market opportunities, the sectors the strategist favors and much more.

Third, Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the Federal Reserve's December rate decision, if equity markets will impact the Fed and much more.

Lastly, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss concerns over an AI bubble, the history of economic bubbles, what investors can do in response to bubble fears, state of private credit market, problems around debt, his thoughts on bitcoin, and more.

Nigerian Gunmen Abduct Over 200 Christian Children, 12 Teachers In Boarding School Attack

Zero Hedge -

Nigerian Gunmen Abduct Over 200 Christian Children, 12 Teachers In Boarding School Attack

Armed men attacked a Catholic boarding school in northcentral Nigeria's Niger state in the early hours on Friday, abducting 215 students and 12 teachers, according to Daniel Atori, a spokesperson to the Niger state chapter of the Christian Association of Nigeria.

The attack on the church in south-western Nigeria is one in a series targeting Christians

"I have just got back to the village this night after I visited the school where I also met with parents of the children to assure them that we are working with the government and Security agencies to see that our children are rescued and brought back safely," Atori said in a statement. 

The attack and abductions took place at St. Mary’s School, a Catholic institution in the Agwara local government’s Papiri community, said Abubakar Usman, the secretary to the Niger state government. He neither disclosed the number of students and staff abducted, nor who might be responsible for the attack. -AP

"We don’t know what is happening now, because we have not heard anything since this morning," said Dauda Chekula, 62, whose four grandchildren were among the abductees. "The children who were able to escape have scattered, some of them ran back to their houses and the only information we are getting is that the attackers are still moving with the remaining children into the bush."

The abduction is the latest in a spate of attacks on Christians in Africa's most populous country, and happened just days after 25 schoolgirls were abducted in a neighboring state

While no description has been given for the attackers, the schoolgirls are suspected to have been taken by 'gangs of bandits.'

As Susan Crabtree of RealClearPolitics writes:  

The timing and nature of the attack placed the fate of Nigerian Christians in stark relief. On Monday, in the early hours of the morning, a group of gunmen attacked a girl’s boarding school in northwestern Nigeria, kidnapping 25 girls, many of them Christian. The attack killed the school’s vice principal, Malam Hassan Makaku, who tried to block the door to the girl’s dormitory with his body.

The gunmen’s assault on the school took more than 20 minutes and failed to prompt any intervention from government security forces located at a checkpoint not far from the school.

The attack also took place amid new scrutiny and calls to action by President Trump. The president in late October vowed to stop the slaughter of Nigerian Christians, whom Muslim terrorist groups, including Boko Haram and Faluni militants, the Islamic State of West Africa Province, as well as armed bandits, have targeted and slaughtered by the thousands in recent years.

The abduction of the girls served as a reminder of former first lady Michelle Obama’s failed hashtag campaign to rescue 276 mostly Christian girls kidnapped by Boko Haram from a school in Chibok, Nigeria, in 2014. A decade later, 82 of the girls remain missing, and a United Nations investigation found that only 37% of schools across Nigeria have any warning system to detect threats of violence and armed attacks.

The deadly attack on the school also came the same week U.S. officials planned to highlight the plight of persecuted Christians in Nigeria at the United Nations and in Congress.

Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz, singer Nicki Minaj, and religious freedom advocates gathered in New York Tuesday and joined a panel hosted by Fox News anchor Harris Faulkner. Rev. Gabriel Makan, a pastor from northern Nigeria, and Sarah Makin, former senior advisor on religious freedom in President Trump’s first administration, joined the panel to call for renewed diplomatic engagement and stepped-up actions from the Nigerian government.

Waltz, Minaj, and the other witnesses chronicled the loss of girls into what they fear is a life of sex slavery, the burning of churches, and beheadings of pastors. Entire villages, Waltz said, wake to gunfire because “they dare to commit the crime of calling Jesus their Lord, [and] people go to jail under blasphemy laws for simply wearing a cross.”

For years, religious freedom advocates have called on the U.S. government to address the slaughter of Christians in Nigeria. Trump, in his first term, designated Nigeria a “Country of Particular Concern,” but President Biden reversed that decision. In late October, Trump once again redesignated Nigeria as a CPC and vowed to do everything in his power, including have the U.S. military come in “guns blazin’,” to stop the violence.

“Protecting Christians is not about politics – it is a moral duty,” Waltz said Tuesday. “We need voices that pierce the silence we have heard from the international community, that humanize the statistics we keep hearing, and demand accountability.”

“Religious freedom means we can all can sing our faith regardless of who we are, where we live, and what we believe,” Minaj told the panel. “But today, faith is under attack in way too many places. In Nigeria, Christians are being targeted, driven from their homes and killed. Churches have been burned, families have been torn apart, and entire communities live in fear constantly, simply because of how they pray.”

New Jersey GOP Rep. Chris Smith in previous Congresses introduced bipartisan legislation calling for more action to stop what he considers a Christian genocide in Nigeria. On Thursday, Smith will lead a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on Trump’s renewed call for action.

Christians make up nearly half of Nigeria’s population of 200 million, but they are the victims of the vast majority of the attacks. Today, Nigeria is the most dangerous place in the world to be a Christian, according to leading religious freedom advocates.

The World Index of Christian Persecution states that Nigeria is where 89% of Christian killings throughout the world took place over the last several years. According to a report by Open Doors, a watchdog that tracks Christian persecution, attacks against Christians in Nigeria are on the rise, with 7,000 Christians dying in the first eight months of this year, up roughly 2,000 from recent years.

The Biden administration attributed the slaughter of Christians in Nigeria, which make up nearly half the population, not to religious persecution but to a conflict over resources exacerbated by climate change. Open Doors and other advocates ardently disagree about the main motivation, although most groups involved believe the conflict isn’t just religious in nature but also involves conflicts over power and control over land and resources because Christians own most of the farming areas.

Kidnapping, which helps fund Islamist terrorist groups, is big business for abductors in the lawless areas of northern Nigeria. More than 20,000 people have been abducted in Nigeria from 2019 to 2023, according to Open Doors. Roaming bandits target people wo will pay ransoms, and they’ve learned that Christians and religious leaders will respond with higher payments than others.

For these reasons, some groups, including the Vatican, have pushed back on the narrative that the slaughter of Christians is primarily religious persecution. According to Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s secretary of state, the root causes are “social” in nature rather than fully religious. The Trump administration rejects that assessment, arguing it’s a war on Christians by mainly Muslim extremist groups.

Regardless of the cause, the impact is alarming. Nigeria remains the world leader when it comes to the killing of Christians. The question now: What can the Trump administration do about it?

Trump, in his late October Truth Social post, vowed U.S. military action if the Nigerian government fails to take immediate action. Such a development, if it involved sending U.S. troops into Nigeria, would likely not only anger Trump’s isolationist MAGA base but could prove ineffective against roving bands of militants and terrorists in such lawless regions.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who is Muslim, pushed back against Trump’s threat of military action, instead calling for non-military assistance from the U.S. and interested parties “to deepen cooperation and protection of communities of all faiths.”

Tinubu, who was elected in 2023 and faces reelection in 2027, is viewed as a far more honest broker than his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, a Muslim who shared his heritage with the Faluni ethnic group responsible for most of the attacks on Nigerian Christians. Tinubu’s wife is a Christian, which likely has tempered his approach.

A senior State Department official told RealClearPolitics that Trump is keeping all options on the table but noted that there is a “whole suite of options” the administration is considering, including serious economic sanctions. The official also noted the geographic complexity of the problem because in the northeastern area of the country the bad actors are Boko Haram and ISIS, while in the Middle Belt it’s Fulani militants.

The key to Tinubu’s reelection is managing “this delicate religious balance,” the official added.

“This is an opportunity for the Nigerians to show that they share this principle [of religious freedom], and they’re willing to take action on this for the benefit of our people,” the official said, noting that it requires the Nigerian government to increase its “prioritization of this issue” and “allocate resources appropriately.” 

While Tinubu appears open to Western assistance to crack down on the attacks, the real problem lies with the flow of firearms to different lawless regions and corrupt funds to the local governors of the different states, several of whom are in league with the extremist groups responsible for the violence, according to a source on the ground in Nigeria. Many of those firearms, the source said, are flowing into Nigeria from Arab states, including Saudi Arabia.

Trump this week gave Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman a lavish welcome at the White House and even defended him over the 2018 killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi by Saudi agents, which U.S. intelligence agencies have concluded the crown prince approved. The White House’s renewed U.S. -Saudi partnership brings new hope to ending regional tensions with Iran and cementing the Israeli-Hamas peace deal.

But any talks of U.S. weapons sales to Saudi Arabia should also include pledges to lead an effort to stop the sales of firearms to Nigerian terrorists and militants, critics argue.

U.S. officials are planning to host a senior Nigerian delegation in Washington at the end of this week to get a better idea of short- and long-term goals and any sticking points.

“The flow of illicit weapons is just magnifying the problem there, so it’s one of the key factors that we’re going to look at, especially in the Middle Belt piece of this when we’re talking about ISIS and Boko Haram,” the State Department official said. “How these Fulani ethnic militias, which the Nigerians claim are just farmers – how they end up with heavy artillery to conduct these raids is a fundamental question.”

The State Department is in the process of conducting a review of all U.S. aid to Nigeria, including security cooperation and humanitarian and economic assistance.

“Our preferred option for them is to recognize the seriousness of the situation and act accordingly, in good faith with us, so we can all see results, and we don’t need to discuss any of these punitive aspects,” the official said. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 18:50

Biden's Weaponization Of The DOJ Against GOP Lawmakers Was Worse Than We Thought

Zero Hedge -

Biden's Weaponization Of The DOJ Against GOP Lawmakers Was Worse Than We Thought

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

New, disturbing revelations show just how far Joe Biden was willing to go to target his political enemies. In 2022, his Justice Department secretly seized more than two years of House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan’s personal phone records. Fox News Digital obtained a subpoena that exposes the depth of Biden’s weaponization of the government against his enemies.

The subpoena shows a federal prosecutor — who later joined Jack Smith’s January 6 team — ordered Verizon to cough up Jordan’s records dating back to Jan. 1, 2020.

“The request appears to be the most expansive yet of the publicly known subpoenas targeting senators and current and former House members during Arctic Frost, the investigation that led to Smith bringing election-related charges against President Donald Trump,” Fox News Digital reports.

Smith did not begin working as special counsel until seven months after the subpoena was issued, meaning the request pre-dated his time at the DOJ.

The subpoena for Jordan's records appears to be one of the first known ones in the Arctic Frost probe and was issued during a time when Jordan was serving as the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee, which conducts oversight of the DOJ. His role at the time is illustrative of Republicans' sharp criticisms of the Arctic Frost subpoenas, as they claim the requests for Congress members' phone records breached the separation of powers, including under the speech or debate clause.

The toll records did not include the contents of Jordan's phone calls or messages but did include details about when calls and messages were sent and received and with whom Jordan was communicating. The subpoena sought records for three other phone numbers, which were redacted. It included a one-year gag order signed by a D.C. magistrate judge.

A source said Verizon handed over Jordan’s records when the DOJ demanded them, adding another layer to the growing concerns about the department’s reach.

Verizon issued a statement saying it is working closely with both the House and Senate Judiciary Committees to gather all relevant information regarding the shady subpoenas.

"As part of our investigation, we uncovered new information regarding Chairman Jordan and shared it with him as soon as possible," Verizon spokesman Rich Young told Fox News Digital in a statement. "We are committed to restoring trust through transparency and will continue to work with Congress and the administration as they examine these issues and consider reforms to expand notification protections."

Jordan is the latest in a growing list of Republicans revealed as having been targeted by the Biden Justice Department as part of Arctic Frost.

The sweep started earlier with Rep. Kevin McCarthy in 2023. At least ten GOP senators also landed on the list, including Sens. Lindsey Graham, Marsha Blackburn, Ted Cruz, and Ron Johnson. The pattern shows a previously unknown and disturbing level of weaponization.

Naturally, Smith insists that his January 6 and 2020 election investigations followed DOJ policies, but no one really buys that. He also insists the subpoenas were “entirely proper” and narrowly crafted.

Right.

Biden’s weaponization of the DOJ against Trump was already a dark stain on American democracy. But this latest revelation proves he couldn’t stop himself from using the full weight of government to crush all political opposition. This blatant abuse of power demands swift congressional action before it is normalized.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 18:25

US Issues NOTAM Flight Alert Of "Heightened Military Activity" Over Venezuela

Zero Hedge -

US Issues NOTAM Flight Alert Of "Heightened Military Activity" Over Venezuela

It has been weeks since Trump's major military build-up off Venezuela began, and the threat of potential escalated military action against Caracas remains imminent. This scenario may have just gotten a big step closer with a fresh NOTAM alert issued by the FAA.

The FAA issued the NOTAM (Notice to Air Missions), or alert notifying pilots of potential serious hazards in certain airspace, for the Maiquetía Flight Information Region. This area covers all of Venezuela and parts of the southern Caribbean sea.

Importantly, the warning cites a "potentially hazardous situation" and "heightened military activity" over Venezuela and waters just off its coast, and is to expire Febuary 19th, 2026.

Already there's a US aircraft carrier group patrolling waters in the Caribbean. Many analysts believe this is a sure sign that some kind of military intervention against Venezuela is coming. 

Trump may order airstrikes and attacks on cartels at land targets in Venezuela, after already sending drone strikes against over twenty alleged drug boats in the last many weeks, killing over 80.

The fresh NOTAM reads:

"The worsening security situation and heightened military activity in or around Venezuela. threats could pose a potential risk to aircraft at all altitudes, including during overflight, the arrival and departure phases of flight, and/or airports and aircraft on the ground."

And more...

Trump had told reporters on Monday that he wouldn’t rule out sending troops into Venezuela amid the US naval build-up. Maduro in response has said that if Trump ordered military strikes on Venezuela, it would be the "biggest mistake of his life."

As we reported earlier, following the first US strikes on boats in the region, Maduro sent a letter to Trump urging for diplomacy and stating his readiness to talk with Trump’s special envoy, Ric Grennel, who met directly with the Venezuelan leader back in January.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 18:00

Don't Fall In The China Trap

Zero Hedge -

Don't Fall In The China Trap

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

Is the Chinese economy collapsing? Or is something worse waiting in the wings?

The short answer is that we could be looking at something much worse than a crashing economy. China could be part of a collapse of the global monetary system.

We’ll begin the analysis with the latest official economic releases from China. These releases showed some of the weakest performance by the Chinese economy since the 2020 pandemic collapse.

Things Aren’t Looking Good

Industrial production growth for October declined to 4.9% (year-over-year) from a prior level of 6.5%. This was the weakest reading since August 2024. Some sectors receiving state support such as autos, computers, shipbuilding and telecommunications did better than average, but the broader manufacturing sector slowed materially, and mining output also weakened.

Retail sales in October were also fragile. There was overall growth of 2.9%, but certain sectors crashed, including household appliances (- 14.9%), building materials (- 8.3%), and automobiles (- 6.6%).

Sectors showing strength included jewelry (+37.6%, although this can be partly a proxy for buying gold in the form of jewelry) and cosmetics (+9.6%). This was the smallest increase in retail sales in years and is especially weak considering that October traditionally marks the beginning of a seasonal buying surge.

The most disastrous data came from fixed-asset investment (FAI), which showed a 1.7% year-to-date decline. This is the steepest decline since the pandemic crash year of 2020.

Property investment fell at -14.7% while infrastructure investment (long the pillar of Chinese growth) went negative at -0.1%. Manufacturing investment was positive at +2.7%, but that was only half the rate from earlier this year.

The bottom line is that all three pillars of investment – fixed assets, property and manufacturing – are slowing at the same time. Investment is one of the most powerful drivers of Chinese growth. While developed economies typically attribute about 25% of their GDP to investment, the Chinese component is closer to 45%. If investment is crashing in China, then overall growth is crashing along with it.

Real Estate Is Crashing Too

This recent data comes on top of the multi-year crash in property values. This crash has caused equity on many properties to be wiped out. To the extent that vanished equity represented the life’s savings of many everyday Chinese citizens, the impact on consumption and the reluctance to make new real estate investments is profound.

The real estate crash goes beyond individual owners and has led to the collapse of several of the largest builders and property investment companies in China including the Evergrande Group ($19 billion in losses), Country Garden ($11 billion in losses), Fantasia Holdings (recent $1 billion operating loss), Sunac (filed for bankruptcy in 2023), and several others.

The financial collapses of China Evergrande, Country Garden, and Sunac all come against the background of a broader crash in real estate debt and real estate-backed wealth management products. This chart shows that a major Chinese high-yield real estate index collapsed 82% in recent years and has never recovered.

The real estate collapse arrived at the same time as several failed “reopenings” of the Chinese economy after COVID and several “stimulus” plans after that. A major economic reopening was announced in 2022 after pandemic lockdowns were eased. This was a failure. Then China announced other major stimulus plans – so-called bazookas – including rate cuts, reductions in bank reserve requirements and subsidies to favored industries. These failed in 2024 and again in 2025. As in the United States, lower interest rates are not a sign of stimulus. They are associated with recession and depression.

Negative Growth?

Chinese economic data must be considered in light of Goodhart’s Law. This economic rule says that when a metric becomes the object of policy, it loses value as a metric.

This applies to Chinese GDP. The Chinese GDP growth rate has declined from 10.0% per year in the early 2000s to 5.0% in 2024. The GDP growth rate (year-over-year) for the third quarter of 2025 was 4.8%. The Chinese clearly target the GDP growth rate and currently have a target of 5.0% growth. This means that growth is almost certainly lower, and the Chinese are using statistical sleight-of-hand or outright lying to make it appear they are at or near their target.

As noted above, about 45% of Chinese GDP comes from investment. However, much of that investment is wasted on ghost cities, white elephants and lavish projects that can never hope to provide any return on investment. If this wasteful investment were written off (as would be required under GAAP), Chinese growth would be cut from 4.8% to about 2.5%. Taking into account other manipulations and Goodhart’s Law, it’s entirely possible that China’s GDP growth is negative today. That outcome is not widely understood and would come as a shock to the panda-huggers on Wall Street.

Caught in the Middle-Income Trap

At an even higher level, China is stuck firmly in the middle-income trap. Absent pervasive corruption or war, countries can move readily from low income (annual per capita GDP of about $5,000) to middle-income (annual per capita GDP of about $15,000) through a combination of urbanization, infrastructure and cookie-cutter assembly-style manufacturing.

The breakout to high-income status (annual per capita GDP of $25,000 or more) comes only from proprietary technology and high-value-added manufacturing. Only a few countries (Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong) have ever made this leap since World War II. China is good at stealing technology, but they are not good at creating it or applying it in their manufacturing sector. This is another major headwind to Chinese growth.

Other Headwinds to Growth

China has other significant growth hurdles independent of the issues noted above. China is now in the early stages of the greatest demographic collapse in the history of the world, even greater than the Black Death of the 14th century.

China’s current population of about 1.4 billion is expected to decline by half in the next fifty years. That’s a loss of 700 million people. This is due to a combination of the one-child policy (which began in 1980), sex-selective abortions and infanticide (which killed twenty million girls), and the decline in births per woman as the result of education, urbanization and job equality.

The simplest formula for estimating economic growth is (work force x productivity). There has been a global decline in productivity for reasons economists do not completely understand. If China combines this decline in productivity per worker with a decline of several hundred million workers, then its economy will likely decline by half or more. This is not a catastrophe that will suddenly strike in 2080. It’s happening now and will grow worse with time.

Chinese growth will also be hindered by an excessive debt-to-GDP ratio. That ratio is estimated at 300%, more than double the U.S. ratio of 123%. Any ratio > 90% retards growth. It’s impossible to borrow your way out of a debt trap. The only solutions are default, hyperinflation, or reducing the ratio with less government spending.

All three hurt growth or destroy capital in different ways. The only certainty is that growth will be weak for decades, unless there’s a total collapse in asset values and debt in which case the system may be reset after wiping out trillions of dollars in wealth.

Investors: Stay Away from China

On top of this economic catastrophe comes political turmoil. The best information available is that Chinese President Xi Jinping has been subject to a soft military coup in which he is now subordinate to the PLA leadership. Xi’s allies have been mostly purged. What comes next in terms of Chinese leadership is unclear. But uncertainty that will deter foreign capital from investing in China is almost certain.

And China is not alone. The weakness in the Chinese economy today comes in the context of negative growth in Japan and the UK along with barely positive growth in the EU. Unemployment is rising, world trade is shrinking, and commercial bank lenders are tightening lending standards among surprise credit losses.

Don’t believe the Wall Street narratives about how China is winning the AI race and is building a technological juggernaut. It’s not. China is stuck in the middle-income trap and has a unique combination of a crashing economy, trade wars, collapsing demographics, excessive debt, political turmoil, no rule of law and the flight of foreign capital all amid a world of no growth. Investors should keep as far away from China as possible.

Tyler Durden Fri, 11/21/2025 - 17:40

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