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10 Weekend Reads / 10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with

 

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To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

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Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetency, corruption and policy failures:

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with

 

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To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

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10 Friday Monday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

52 things I learned in 2025: This year I stopped being a consultant, started a tiny company, sold hundreds of little modular synths…   https://medium.com/@tomwhitwell/52-things-i-learned-in-2025-edeca7e3fdd8 See also 52 things I learned in 2025 The news (to me) this year. https://fritinancy.substack.com/p/52-things-i-learned-in-2025 But see also 52 Things I Learned in 2025 Here are some of the most interesting things I learned this year. https://probablyinteresting.substack.com/p/52-things-i-learned-in-2025 Really? OK 52 things I learned in 2025 presented under the comment that ‘no explanation or context of what it is about the article I learned, just a title and link of something important to me personally or professionally in [year]’. https://www.dontwasteyourtime.co.uk/blogging/52-things-i-learned-in-2025/ Last Damned One 52 Good Things from 2025 The 19th year of my annual gratitude practice, now spanning 990 good things. https://medium.com/the-coach-life/52-good-things-from-2025-9e71083e87b5

 

Warren Buffett: A Question of Character: Warren Buffett, who will retire this week at age 95, has compiled perhaps the most astounding investment and management record in financial history. Anyone who invested $10,000 when he started out in 1956 and remained in the fund — c0nverted in in 1969 to Berkshire Hathaway — today would have an investment worth $2.9 billion. No misprint.  https://rogerlowenstein.substack.com/p/warren-buffett-a-question-of-character

All That Cheap Chinese Stuff Is Now Europe’s Problem: Trump’s tariffs have redirected the flow of low-value packages away from the U.S. into backyard warehouses on the Continent; the ‘new Silk Road’ (Wall Street Journal)

The Vanity Fair photographer who disrupted Trumpworld’s polished image: Every line, spot, blemish and blood vessel was captured by Christopher Anderson’s lens. What was he thinking?   https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/power/2025/12/17/vanity-fair-susie-wiles-photos/

The year Trump broke the federal government: How DOGE and the White House carried out a once-unthinkable transformation of the nation’s sprawling bureaucracy. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/interactive/2025/trump-federal-government-workers-doge/

The 50-Year Republican Plan for Total Victory: aaaa https://brucebartlett.substack.com/p/the-50-year-republican-plan-for-total

Jan 2

ChatGPT is overrated. Here’s what to use instead. (Washington Post)

America’s Biggest Oil Field Is Turning Into a Pressure Cooker: Drillers’ injection of wastewater is creating mayhem across the Permian Basin, raising concern about the future of fossil-fuel production there. (Wall Street Journal)

 

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Stephanie Drescher, Apollo’s Chief Client and Product Development Officer. She oversees everything from the global wealth business to portfolio management, product development, and client marketing. She is a member of the firm’s leadership team. Since 2020, Barron’s has named her annually to its list of the 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance.

 

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

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My morning train WFH reads:

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

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My mid-week morning train WFH reads:

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train WFH reads:

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Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

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My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with

 

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Question #3 for 2026: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2026?

Calculated Risk -

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

3) Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate was at 4.6% in November, up from 4.2% in November 2024.   Currently the FOMC is projecting the unemployment rate will decrease to the 4.3% to 4.4% range in Q4 2026.  What will the unemployment rate be in December 2026?
unemployment rateClick on graph for larger image.

The unemployment rate is from the household survey (CPS), and the rate increased in November to 4.6%, up from 4.2% in November 2024.  An unemployment rate of 4.6% over the next few months might suggest an employment recession according to the Sahm rule.

Forecasting the unemployment rate includes forecasts for economic and payroll growth, and also for changes in the participation rate (previous question).
"Uncertainty" was the key economic word for 2025, and probably for 2026 too.  There is significant uncertainty in the labor market with signs of weak hiring and concerns that AI will impact job growth.  Sometimes an employment recession continues as some employed individuals become cautious.  At the same time, we should see some economic boost from fiscal policy in 2026.
It appears that the participation rate will decline in 2026 based on demographics and that population growth will be slow due to less net migration.  That suggests that the labor force will grow slowly in 2026. So even if job growth stays slow in 2026 (next question), the unemployment rate might stabilize or even decline.
However, my guess is the unemployment rate will be in the mid-to-high 4% range in December 2026.  
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2026 and a few predictions:

Question #3 for 2026: What will the unemployment rate be in December 2026?

Question #4 for 2026: What will the participation rate be in December 2026?

Question #5 for 2026: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?

Question #6 for 2026: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2026?

Question #7 for 2026: How much will wages increase in 2026?

Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

10 New Years Day Reads

The Big Picture -

My New Years Day reads:

Financial Discipline Is an Easy Resolution to Make, but a Hard One to Keep: We all say we want to save more and spend less. The key is to think more broadly. (Wall Street Journal)

Trump’s First Year Back, in 10 Charts: President Trump indisputably dominated 2025. Only the second president to be elected to nonconsecutive terms, the reinvigorated Mr. Trump plunged back into office with a muscularity unmatched by any other president in my lifetime. (New York Times) see also Charts of the year: Trump’s attempt to reshape world trade: The US president’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs spooked markets but the global trading system has proved to be resilient (Financial Times)

Did “Sell America” Win After All? There’s been a “Sell America” media shtick since the first tariffs were announced. ETF Investors didn’t bite. Maybe they should have? (ETF.com)

How Roomba invented the home robot — and lost the future: iRobot’s collapse marks the end of an era. Co-founder Colin Angle calls it a blow for robotics. (The Verge)

‘You Had to Be Brave’: Wall Street Remembers a Wild 2025: The stock market was rattled by AI bubble fears, trade war and actual war, only to rally back, paying off to anyone who was willing to risk buying the dips. (Bloomberg) see also In a Wild Year for Markets, Investors Who Did Nothing Did Just Fine: The year was dominated by tariffs, questions about the U.S. and artificial intelligence. (Wall Street Journal)

The US Must Stop Underestimating Drone Warfare: The future of conflict is cheap, rapidly manufactured, and tough to defend against. (Wired)

The Lost Art of Research as Leisure: Where have the amateur researchers gone, and how do we bring them back? (Kasurian)

10 scientific truths that somehow became unpopular in 2025: Scientific truths remain true regardless of belief. These 10, despite contrary claims, remain vitally important as 2025 draws to a close. (Starts With A Bang) see also The 10 Most Mind-Blowing Discoveries About the Brain in 2025: From glowing neurons to newborn memories, here are the most fascinating brain discoveries of 2025. (Scientific American)

Inside RFK Jr.’s reshaping of public health in Trump’s first year: Interviews with almost 100 people reveal how Kennedy, as health secretary, has reshaped the vaccine and broader public health infrastructure in less than a year. (Washington Post)

Five Things That Changed the Media in 2025: A.I., of course—but there were also other, less obvious stories and trends that are going to shape how we understand the news. (New Yorker) see also Top 25 News Photos of 2025: Powerful images from the past 12 months. (The Atlantic)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Stephanie Drescher, Apollo’s Chief Client and Product Development Officer. She oversees everything from the global wealth business to portfolio management, product development, and client marketing. She is a member of the firm’s leadership team. Since 2020, Barron’s has named her annually to its list of the 100 Most Influential Women in U.S. Finance.

States where the minimum wage is going up in 2026

Source: Axios

 

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oceans hillsong sheet music pdf

Economy in Crisis -

Hillsong Music & Sheet Music: A Comprehensive Guide (Updated 01/01/2026)

Today‚ January 1st‚ 2026‚ accessing “Oceans” sheet music in PDF format is incredibly popular‚ offering convenience for musicians seeking arrangements for practice and performance.

Hillsong Worship‚ originating from Hillsong Church in Australia‚ has become a global phenomenon in contemporary Christian music. Their songs are characterized by powerful lyrics‚ modern arrangements‚ and a focus on heartfelt worship. This has led to immense popularity‚ particularly with tracks like “Oceans (Where Feet Fail).”

The demand for sheet music‚ especially in PDF format‚ reflects the widespread use of their songs in churches‚ concerts‚ and personal practice. Musicians appreciate the accessibility and portability of PDFs‚ allowing for easy printing and viewing on various devices. The availability of “Oceans” sheet music caters to diverse skill levels‚ from beginner piano arrangements to complex vocal scores‚ fueling its continued performance and impact within the worship community.

The Popularity of Hillsong’s “Oceans”

“Oceans (Where Feet Fail)” resonated deeply with audiences upon its release‚ becoming a defining song for Hillsong United and a modern worship classic. Its lyrical depth‚ exploring themes of faith and surrender‚ combined with its emotive melody‚ contributed to its widespread appeal. Consequently‚ the demand for sheet music soared‚ with many seeking arrangements to learn and perform the song.

The convenience of PDF format further fueled this demand‚ allowing musicians quick and easy access to arrangements. The song’s enduring popularity ensures a consistent need for accessible “Oceans” sheet music‚ driving searches and purchases across various online platforms‚ solidifying its place in contemporary worship repertoire.

Understanding Sheet Music Availability

Finding “Oceans (Where Feet Fail)” sheet music in PDF format presents various options‚ ranging from official sources to third-party websites. The Hillsong Store typically offers official‚ high-quality arrangements‚ though often at a cost. Numerous online retailers‚ like Musicnotes‚ also provide downloadable PDFs‚ catering to different skill levels and instrumentation.

However‚ caution is advised when exploring free sheet music options‚ as legality and accuracy can be questionable. Availability fluctuates‚ with some arrangements being more readily accessible than others. Understanding these nuances is crucial for musicians seeking reliable and legally obtained “Oceans” sheet music.

“Oceans (Where Feet Fail)” ⏤ Song Overview

“Oceans”‚ a globally recognized worship song‚ frequently sought in PDF sheet music‚ profoundly resonates with listeners‚ inspiring faith and musical interpretation.

Background and Meaning of the Song

“Oceans (Where Feet Fail)”‚ penned by Matt Crocker and Joel Houston‚ emerged from Hillsong United’s desire to express a surrender to God’s call‚ even amidst uncertainty. The song beautifully captures the tension between faith and fear‚ acknowledging the vastness of God and the limitations of human understanding. Its lyrical depth explores themes of trust‚ dependence‚ and the willingness to step into the unknown‚ guided by a divine presence.

The widespread availability of “Oceans” sheet music‚ particularly in PDF format‚ reflects its enduring impact on contemporary worship. Musicians appreciate the accessibility‚ allowing for personal interpretation and arrangement. The song’s message continues to inspire countless individuals‚ making its sheet music a valuable resource for both personal devotion and public performance‚ fostering a deeper connection with its profound message.

Musical Structure and Key Elements

“Oceans (Where Feet Fail)” features a dynamic structure‚ beginning with a gentle piano introduction that builds into a powerful chorus. The song is primarily in the key of C major‚ utilizing a simple yet effective chord progression. Its signature element is the recurring instrumental break‚ evoking a sense of vastness and the unknown‚ mirroring the lyrical theme.

Analyzing “Oceans” sheet music‚ often found as a PDF‚ reveals its carefully crafted arrangement. The vocal melody is emotive and accessible‚ while the instrumentation supports the song’s emotional arc. Musicians utilizing the sheet music can appreciate the nuances in dynamics and phrasing‚ enhancing their performance and conveying the song’s profound message of faith and surrender.

Finding “Oceans” Sheet Music Online

Numerous websites offer “Oceans” sheet music as PDF downloads‚ ranging from official Hillsong resources to third-party platforms like Musicnotes for convenient access.

Official Hillsong Store & Resources

Hillsong’s official online store represents the most reliable source for authentic “Oceans (Where Feet Fail)” sheet music in PDF format. Purchasing directly ensures quality arrangements‚ accurate transcriptions‚ and supports the artists and ministry. They frequently offer various arrangements tailored to different instruments and skill levels – piano‚ vocal‚ guitar‚ and even orchestral versions may be available.

Beyond direct purchases‚ Hillsong often provides supplementary resources alongside the sheet music‚ such as backing tracks‚ tutorial videos‚ and chord charts. These additions enhance the learning experience and aid in faithful reproduction of the song’s nuances. Regularly checking the Hillsong Store for promotions and bundled offers can also lead to cost savings when acquiring “Oceans” sheet music and related materials.

Third-Party Sheet Music Websites (Musicnotes‚ etc.)

Numerous reputable third-party sheet music websites‚ like Musicnotes.com‚ SheetMusicPlus‚ and others‚ offer digital downloads of “Oceans (Where Feet Fail)” in PDF format. These platforms often present a wider variety of arrangements – simplified versions‚ instrumental solos‚ or unique adaptations – compared to the official Hillsong store. Competitive pricing and frequent sales are common benefits of utilizing these services.

However‚ it’s crucial to verify the accuracy and legality of the arrangements before purchasing. Look for officially licensed sheet music to ensure quality and support copyright holders. User reviews can also provide valuable insights into the arrangement’s faithfulness to the original recording and overall playability. Always download from trusted sources to avoid potentially corrupted or inaccurate files.

Free Sheet Music Options & Legality Concerns

While numerous websites offer free sheet music for “Oceans (Where Feet Fail)” in PDF format‚ exercising extreme caution is paramount. Many of these sources operate outside of legal licensing agreements‚ potentially infringing on copyright laws. Utilizing illegally obtained sheet music not only undermines the artists and composers but also carries potential legal risks for the user.

Furthermore‚ free versions often lack the quality control found in paid arrangements‚ frequently containing errors‚ inaccuracies‚ or incomplete transcriptions. Supporting official channels—like the Hillsong store or licensed third-party vendors—ensures access to accurate‚ legally obtained music‚ and contributes to the continued creation of worship resources.

Types of Sheet Music Available for “Oceans”

“Oceans” sheet music commonly appears as PDF piano/vocal arrangements‚ guitar tabs‚ simplified piano versions‚ and chord charts‚ catering to diverse skill levels.

Piano/Vocal Arrangements

Piano/vocal arrangements of “Oceans” in PDF format represent a highly sought-after option for musicians desiring a complete musical experience. These arrangements typically include the melody line‚ piano accompaniment‚ and vocal lyrics‚ allowing singers and pianists to perform the song together.

The complexity of these arrangements can vary‚ ranging from simplified versions suitable for beginners to more intricate arrangements for advanced players. Many PDF versions available online feature detailed chord symbols‚ dynamic markings‚ and other musical notations to aid in interpretation. Musicians appreciate the convenience of PDFs for easy printing and portability‚ enabling practice and performance anywhere. Finding accurate and well-formatted PDF piano/vocal sheets is crucial for a satisfying musical outcome.

Guitar Tabs and Chord Charts

Guitar tabs and chord charts for “Oceans” are widely available in PDF format‚ catering specifically to guitarists of all skill levels. These resources provide a simplified method for learning the song‚ focusing on the essential chords and strumming patterns needed for accompaniment. PDF tabs often include chord diagrams‚ making it easier for beginners to grasp finger placements.

More advanced guitarists may find tablature that details specific fingerpicking patterns or lead guitar lines. The accessibility of PDFs allows guitarists to quickly print and use these charts during rehearsals or performances. While often less detailed than full piano/vocal arrangements‚ guitar-focused PDFs offer a practical and efficient way to learn and play “Oceans” on the guitar.

Simplified Piano Arrangements

Simplified piano arrangements of “Oceans” in PDF format are ideal for beginner and intermediate pianists. These arrangements typically reduce the complexity of the original score‚ focusing on the core melody and harmonic progression. They often feature simplified left-hand patterns and easier chord voicings‚ making the song more accessible to those still developing their piano skills.

The PDF format allows for easy printing and portability‚ enabling practice anywhere. These arrangements prioritize playability over intricate detail‚ offering a satisfying musical experience without overwhelming the player. Many PDFs include lyrics‚ facilitating simultaneous singing and playing. They serve as a fantastic stepping stone towards mastering the full‚ more complex piano arrangement.

PDF Format and Accessibility

PDF sheet music for “Oceans” offers convenient access‚ printing‚ and portability for musicians‚ enabling practice and performance anywhere with ease.

Advantages of PDF Sheet Music

PDF format provides numerous benefits for musicians seeking “Oceans” sheet music. Primarily‚ PDFs ensure consistent formatting across various devices – computers‚ tablets‚ and smartphones – guaranteeing the music appears as intended by the arranger. This universal compatibility eliminates potential display issues encountered with other file types.

Furthermore‚ PDFs are easily printable‚ allowing musicians to have a physical copy for practice or performance‚ free from reliance on digital screens. They are also readily shareable‚ facilitating collaboration among band members or students. The relatively small file size of PDFs makes them convenient to download and store‚ conserving digital space. Accessibility is enhanced as PDFs can be viewed offline‚ making them ideal for locations with limited internet connectivity.

Potential Issues with PDF Quality

While convenient‚ PDF sheet music for “Oceans” isn’t without potential drawbacks. Scanned PDFs‚ particularly those sourced from unofficial websites‚ can suffer from poor resolution‚ resulting in blurry notes and difficult-to-read markings. This impacts playability and accurate interpretation.

Furthermore‚ some PDFs may lack interactive features like adjustable tempo or transposition‚ limiting customization options. Copyright concerns also arise with freely distributed PDFs; ensuring legality is crucial. Editing PDFs can be challenging without specialized software‚ hindering annotations or modifications. Finally‚ the file size‚ though generally small‚ can become substantial with high-resolution scans‚ impacting download times and storage capacity.

Software for Viewing and Printing PDFs

Accessing “Oceans” sheet music in PDF format requires suitable software. Adobe Acrobat Reader is a widely used‚ free option offering reliable viewing and printing capabilities. Alternatives include Foxit Reader and SumatraPDF‚ known for their speed and lightweight design. For more advanced editing features – like annotation or form-filling – Adobe Acrobat Pro provides a comprehensive suite of tools.

When printing‚ ensure your printer settings are optimized for sheet music; selecting “fit to page” can prevent crucial notes from being cut off. Previewing the print layout is essential. Many PDF viewers also support digital signatures and security features‚ protecting your purchased sheet music.

Hillsong United & Related Artists

Hillsong United‚ including Joel Houston‚ birthed “Oceans‚” and its sheet music’s popularity reflects the band’s global influence and musical impact today.

The Role of Joel Houston in “Oceans”

Joel Houston‚ a pivotal worship leader within Hillsong United‚ played a central role in crafting “Oceans (Where Feet Fail).” His songwriting and musical direction were instrumental in the song’s creation‚ profoundly impacting its widespread appeal and subsequent demand for sheet music.

The song’s lyrical depth and emotive melody‚ largely shaped by Houston’s vision‚ resonated deeply with audiences‚ driving a surge in requests for accessible arrangements. Consequently‚ numerous “Oceans” sheet music versions‚ including PDF formats‚ emerged to cater to musicians wanting to learn and perform this iconic worship song. His leadership directly correlates to the availability and popularity of the sheet music today.

Lauren Daigle’s Performance of “How Great Thou Art” & Hillsong Connection

Lauren Daigle’s remarkable performance of “How Great Thou Art” alongside Hillsong United highlights the collaborative spirit within the broader Hillsong community. While not directly related to “Oceans‚” this performance underscores the high musical standard associated with Hillsong artists‚ influencing the quality expected in their sheet music offerings.

The demand for accurate and well-arranged sheet music‚ including PDF versions‚ stems from the desire to replicate the artistry showcased by performers like Daigle. This connection reinforces the value placed on accessible resources for musicians seeking to learn and perform Hillsong’s repertoire‚ including the immensely popular “Oceans.”

Controversies Surrounding Hillsong Church

Recent controversies involving Hillsong‚ including statements on social issues‚ haven’t demonstrably impacted the continued high demand for “Oceans” sheet music in PDF format.

Pastor Carl Lentz and Controversial Statements

The focus on Pastor Carl Lentz’s controversial statements‚ particularly regarding his refusal to define sin and his views on the New York abortion law‚ presents an interesting juxtaposition with the enduring popularity of Hillsong’s music. Despite these publicized issues‚ demand for resources like “Oceans” sheet music in PDF format remains consistently high.

It appears a clear separation exists in the public’s mind between the actions of leadership and the artistic output of Hillsong United. Musicians and worship leaders continue to seek accessible arrangements‚ demonstrating that the song’s message and musicality resonate independently of the controversies surrounding the church’s figures. This suggests a strong connection to the song itself‚ rather than solely to the institution.

Hillsong’s Stance on Social Issues (Abortion)

Hillsong’s stance on sensitive social issues‚ specifically abortion‚ has drawn significant criticism‚ particularly Pastor Carl Lentz’s comments regarding the New York abortion law. Interestingly‚ this controversy hasn’t demonstrably impacted the widespread search for “Oceans” sheet music in PDF format.

The continued demand for accessible arrangements suggests a disconnect between the church’s political positions and the song’s appeal to a broader audience. Many musicians likely prioritize the artistic and spiritual value of “Oceans” over the views of its affiliated organization. This highlights a potential separation between consuming the music and endorsing all aspects of the Hillsong brand.

Criticism and Public Perception of Hillsong

Public perception of Hillsong has faced challenges due to controversies surrounding Pastor Carl Lentz and ambiguous statements on defining sin‚ yet the demand for “Oceans” sheet music PDFs remains consistently high. Despite negative press‚ musicians continue seeking arrangements for personal worship and performance.


This suggests a compartmentalization: individuals may acknowledge criticisms leveled against Hillsong while still appreciating the artistic merit and spiritual resonance of songs like “Oceans.” The accessibility of PDF sheet music likely contributes to this continued engagement‚ allowing musicians to enjoy the music independently of the church’s broader reputation.

Selena Gomez & Hillsong Young & Free

Selena Gomez’s performance with Hillsong Young & Free doesn’t directly impact “Oceans” sheet music PDF demand‚ but highlights the broader appeal of Hillsong’s music.

Selena Gomez’s Performance with Hillsong

In August 2018‚ Selena Gomez unexpectedly joined Hillsong Young & Free on stage in Los Angeles‚ performing her song “Nobody.” While this event showcased a connection between a mainstream pop artist and the Hillsong community‚ it doesn’t directly correlate with the availability or demand for “Oceans” sheet music PDFs. However‚ Gomez’s association with Hillsong arguably broadened the church’s reach and potentially introduced new audiences to their worship music‚ including “Oceans.”

This increased exposure could indirectly influence searches for sheet music‚ as fans discovering Hillsong through Gomez might then seek resources to learn and play their songs. The performance underscored the growing trend of pop artists collaborating with or expressing appreciation for contemporary Christian music‚ further solidifying Hillsong’s influence.

The Relationship Between Pop Artists and Hillsong

Hillsong’s appeal extends beyond its core congregation‚ attracting collaborations with prominent pop artists like Selena Gomez‚ demonstrating a broader cultural impact. This connection doesn’t directly impact the technical aspects of “Oceans” sheet music PDFs‚ but it influences demand. Increased visibility through these partnerships drives more individuals to explore Hillsong’s music catalog‚ subsequently increasing searches for arrangements.

The church’s contemporary sound and emotionally resonant lyrics resonate with a wider audience‚ making their songs‚ including “Oceans‚” attractive for covers and personal interpretation. This trend fuels the need for accessible and accurate sheet music resources‚ particularly in convenient PDF format‚ catering to both amateur and professional musicians.

Using “Oceans” Sheet Music for Learning

PDF versions of “Oceans” sheet music provide accessible practice for musicians of all levels‚ aiding in skill development and musical interpretation.

Tips for Beginners

Starting with “Oceans” sheet music as a beginner? Excellent choice! Begin by focusing on the melody line‚ ignoring complex harmonies initially. Utilize the PDF format’s zoom function to comfortably view notes and chords. Practice slowly‚ breaking down sections into manageable phrases.

Don’t be afraid to simplify the arrangement; focus on the core chords and rhythm. Consider using a metronome to build consistent timing. Many PDF versions include chord diagrams‚ aiding guitarists. Vocalists should prioritize breath control and phrasing‚ mirroring Lauren Daigle’s emotive style. Remember‚ consistent‚ slow practice yields the best results.

Explore online tutorials specifically for “Oceans” to supplement your learning.

Advanced Techniques for Interpretation

For experienced musicians tackling “Oceans” sheet music (PDF)‚ delve into dynamic variations and nuanced phrasing. Explore incorporating subtle rubato to enhance emotional impact‚ mirroring Hillsong United’s performance style. Analyze Joel Houston’s vocal delivery for inspiration‚ focusing on intentional pauses and swells.

Experiment with adding fills and embellishments‚ staying true to the song’s worshipful atmosphere. Utilize the PDF to meticulously study the harmonic structure‚ identifying opportunities for re-voicing chords. Consider layering vocal harmonies‚ inspired by Lauren Daigle’s contributions.

Mastering dynamics and phrasing elevates the song beyond technical proficiency‚ conveying its profound message.

Resources for Vocal Training

Successfully performing “Oceans” from sheet music (PDF) requires vocal strength and control. Online platforms like SingSharp and Vocalizr offer personalized lessons focusing on breath support and resonance – crucial for sustained notes.

Consider exploring vocal coaches specializing in contemporary worship styles‚ mirroring Hillsong United’s approach. YouTube channels dedicated to vocal technique provide free tutorials on pitch accuracy and vocal health.

Analyzing Lauren Daigle’s performances of songs like “How Great Thou Art” can inspire phrasing and emotional delivery. Remember consistent practice with the PDF sheet music is key to building confidence and vocal stamina.

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.

Swalwell Pledges To Arrest ICE Agents And Take Away Their Driver's Licenses

Zero Hedge -

Swalwell Pledges To Arrest ICE Agents And Take Away Their Driver's Licenses

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

Rep. Eric Swalwell (D., Cal.) will not be outdone again.

Recently, Swalwell was outvoted in Congress by a colleague who had died months earlier. 

Now, he is ensuring that, when it comes to violating the Constitution, no one is even close. This week, Swalwell pledged that, if elected California governor, he will arrest ICE officers and take away their driver’s licences.

On MS NOW’s “All In,” Swalwell was asked by host Jason Johnson:

 “What would you do if you are able to be elected as governor of California? … What would you bring to the table as a governor of California?”

Swalwell responded:

“Well, you have immense powers as governor of California and your responsibility to protect the most vulnerable in the state. So if the president is going to send ICE agents to chase immigrants through the fields where they work, what I’m going to do is make sure that they take off their masks and show their faces, that they show their identification. And if they commit crimes that they’re going to be charged with crimes, if it’s falsely imprisoning people, if it’s kidnapping, if it’s assault battery, they’re going to be held accountable. I also think if the governor has the ability to issue driver’s licenses to people in California, if you’re going to wear a mask and not identify yourself, you’re not going to be eligible to drive a vehicle in California. There’s a lot you can do, but most importantly, you have to go on offense. Otherwise, the most vulnerable in our community will always be on defense.

Democrats appear to be morphing into predecessors like Gov. George Wallace (D., Ala.), pledging to defy federal authority and bar federal agents from their states. Wallace also reportedly threatened to arrest federal officers (and then later backed down when he was threatened with court action).

In an “age of rage,” the most irate and irrational reigns supreme.

From demanding that any Democratic nominee pledge to demolish the new Trump ballroom to opposing parental rights in schools, Swalwell has struggled to find traction with far-left California voters.

However, he is now promising to violate the Constitution. That did not take long. We do not even have a clear idea of who will be the frontrunners in the election. It is like a game of chicken where Swalwell immediately drives off the cliff before anyone gets into their cars.

Ironically, it is precisely what he has accused Donald Trump of doing: disregarding the Constitution when it suits his political agenda.

In case it matters to anyone left in California, he cannot do this. Seizing federal agents sort of went out of constitutional style after the Civil War. The “immense powers as governor of California” do not include dictating what federal officers can wear on their faces or bodies.

The first tiny barrier to Swalwell’s antebellum policies is the Supremacy Clause, which prevents states from “interfering with or controlling the operations of the Federal Government.” United States v. Washington (2022). Since McCulloch v. Maryland in 1819, the Supreme Court has consistently struck down state laws that impede federal enforcement.

Moreover, immunity under the Supremacy Clause (Article VI, Clause 2) bars criminally charging officials who are properly carrying out their lawful federal duties. For example, in 1890, the Supreme Court ruled In re Neagle that a U.S. Marshal had immunity when a state tried to charge him with murder after he shot and killed an individual attacking a justice.

While the Supreme Court has also stressed that federal immunity does not afford federal employees carte blanche to violate any and all state laws, it has made clear that such state limits must be incidental and nonintrusive. In Johnson v. Maryland (1920), Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes explained:

“It very well may be that, when the United States has not spoken, the subjection to local law would extend to general rules that might affect incidentally the mode of carrying out the employment — as, for instance, a statute or ordinance regulating the mode of turning at the corners of streets. Commonwealth v. Closson, 229 Mass. 329. This might stand on much the same footing as liability under the common law of a state to a person injured by the driver’s negligence. But even the most unquestionable and most universally applicable of state laws, such as those concerning murder, will not be allowed to control the conduct of a marshal of the United States acting under and in pursuance of the laws of the United States. Ex parte Neagle, 135 U. S. 1.”

None of this really matters to Swalwell. He is moving from democrat to demagogue in pledging unconstitutional acts to be sure that no one is farther to the left in the California race. It is the same “politics of contempt” that he has displayed as a member of Congress. Swalwell has always distinguished himself by doing things that few others could stomach, such as mocking a female senator over the death threats that she was receiving from irate liberals.

He also may be right about California voters. While others are struggling to come up with ideas for a state that is facing a crushing debt crisis and top taxpayers fleeing the state, Swalwell is promising chest-pounding theatrics…more jester than governor. He will entertain and distract with measures that will be struck down in courts.

It is the modern equivalent of the Roman games, promising combat with federal officers to thrill the crowd. From California and New York, there is an insatiable appetite for lawfare and disruption. Swalwell will promise chaos and confrontation … and many California voters will love him for it.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 14:40

Russia Presents Its Evidence Of Ukrainian Drone Attack On Putin's Residence

Zero Hedge -

Russia Presents Its Evidence Of Ukrainian Drone Attack On Putin's Residence

"We're going to see some escalation now," Retired Air Force Brig. Gen. Blaine Holt has said amid allegations Ukraine targeted Putin's residence. "The Russians have made up their minds and made declarations about who they believe tried to strike the Valdai mansion that's owned by President Putin, and they're going to change their negotiable posture."

For starters, the Kremlin has already indeed made clear Moscow would toughen its stance in US-backed peace talks which seek to end nearly four-year-old war. The fear is also that Russia will use this as an 'excuse' to expand the war.

The Kremlin has presented images of downed drones related to the attack. Russian Defense Ministry via Reuters

The allegation is that Ukraine's military launched 91 long-range strike drones at the presidential compound in Novgorod Region on Sunday night into early Monday, but that anti-air defenses intercepted all of them, and there was no damage or casualties.

The Zelensky government has rejected this account, calling it a "fabrication" and says there was no effort to target Putin's home. This denial was followed by demands for evidence

On Wednesday the Russian government and state media have publicized various items of evidence said to prove the attack took place, also accompanied with interviews of various Russian citizen eyewitnesses from the area that night.

Moscow’s Defense Ministry newly released a map showing the flightpath of the Ukrainian long-range drones that targeted the presidential residence in Novgorod Region.

Additionally, Russia's Defense Ministry has published footage purporting to show the debris of one of the UAVs which had apparently been downed in the attack.

The ministry stated that it has "presented irrefutable evidence of a terrorist attack planned by the Kiev regime on the Russian President’s residence." 

The images feature "fragments of drones shot down in Novgorod region, including those with warheads equipped with special striking elements designed to kill people," the statement continued. But Kiev isn't buying it.

Ukraine's Foreign ministry has responded to the video footage by saying it's "laughable" that this constitutes proof the Ukrainians tried to attack Putin's residence.

Interestingly, Moscow is still trying to keep a sympathetic ear from the White House, after President Trump issued condemnation of the alleged attack on Putin's home. The Kremlin has asserted the failed attack was also "against President Trump's efforts to facilitate a peaceful resolution of the Ukraine conflict."

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 14:20

Moore: Economists Got 2025 All Wrong

Zero Hedge -

Moore: Economists Got 2025 All Wrong

Authored by Stephen Moore via DailyCaller.com,

Well, Donald Trump has done it again!

He stumped the chumps.

The “chumps” in this case were the “blue chip” academic and financial economists whose consensus forecast this time last year was for high inflation and low economic growth. Wrong on both counts.

As you’ve probably heard, the GDP growth for Q3 came in at a red hot 4.3% following 3.5% for the second quarter. Some 90% of the professional economists got it wrong — all underestimating the strength of the Trump economy. QED: these weren’t random errors. These were “hate Trump” errors.

They also predicted inflation of above 3% for 2025. It’s going to come in at closer to 2.7% with the last two months trending down to the Fed inflation target of 2%.

Starting in the second quarter, GDP has been nearly twice as high as predicted.

To quote the inimitable special agent Maxwell Smart: “Missed it by that much.”

This isn’t the first time the whiz kids whiffed on the Trump economy.

These are the same Keynesian economists who warned at the start of Trump’s first term that we would see a stock market crash. (The stock market is today at record highs on all three indices. Paul Krugman, who won a Nobel prize in economics, and wrote regularly for the New York Times for years, famously feared a second Great Depression if Trump policies took hold).

Krugman and others all thought Trump’s tariffs would ignite runaway inflation.

There’s no doubt tariffs did cause a rise in aluminum, coffee and beef prices – commodities that got hit by tariffs as high as 50%. But the economic pundits failed to take account of the disinflationary effect of pro-growth policies like deregulation, Trump tax rate cuts, and pro-America energy policies. These counteracted the impact of tariffs on prices overall.

One would have thought that the academics and media would have learned from their mistakes of always underestimating Trump on the economy. But they seem incapable of self-correcting. They keep doubling-down on dire predictions about Trumponomics.

The latest blue chip forecast for economic growth for 2026 is a measly 1.9% even though the economy has been growing 50% faster than that of late.

This raises the question: why are they persistently wrong? It could be that they are so afflicted with Trump Derangement Syndrome that they can’t see or shoot straight. Or perhaps they WANT Trump to fail so their judgment is impaired. No one likes their theories, orthodoxies, and core beliefs to be proven wrong.

The forecasts of the “hate Trump” sages are about as accurate as a blind man tossing darts at a dartboard in a crowded bar.

If these blue chippers had any integrity, they’d admit that they don’t know what they are talking about.

Fat chance that will ever happen. Instead these prophets of doom will continue to give the entire economics profession a black eye. No wonder it is known as “the dismal science.”

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller News Foundation or ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 14:00

The Trump Administration's Fight To Fund Scientists

Zero Hedge -

The Trump Administration's Fight To Fund Scientists

Authored by Paul D. Thacker via RealClearInvestigations,

The panic and outrage were palpable last February when President Trump announced plans to trim reimbursement rates for government-funded scientific research.

This is going to decimate U.S. scientific biomedical research,” Northwestern University biologist Carole Labonne told Bloomberg. “The lights will go out, people will be let go, and these [medical] advances will not occur,” David Skorton, CEO of the Association of American Medical Colleges, told PBS. “The goal,” University of Washington biologist Carl Bergstrom warned on BlueSky, “is to destroy U.S. universities.”

The sky has not fallen on American research in the 10 months since. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) is still paying the same 50% to 70% in indirect costs – the premium added on top of grants meant to reimburse universities for providing labs and other research infrastructure – because lawsuits have frozen the president’s proposed policy. One Trump official admits this is unlikely to change because the administration will almost certainly lose in court. The current system, which provides the lion’s share of billions of dollars each year for often-unspecified overhead costs to universities, has the backing of Congress. As it stands, there appears to be no momentum, even among Republicans, to reform the practice.

It’s basically a slush fund,” one NIH official told RealClearInvestigations. “We just don’t like to call it that.”

A RealClearInvestigations analysis of these indirect payments reveals a long, largely forgotten history of concern about taxpayer-sponsored research. Although many researchers have cast Trump’s proposal as an attack on science, this issue isn’t the need to fund research activities that sometimes lead to beneficial discoveries, but whether some of the billions that support the necessary infrastructure and equipment are actually being shifted to purposes such as staffing and buildings that have little or no direct connection to the actual research. 

In the late ’80s, Stanford faculty revolted against the university’s high overhead charges for diverting research dollars to a bloated administration and a campus building frenzy. Those concerns are still voiced by some.

If the universities truly believe that it takes 60-70% of a research grant to provide facilities, utilities, and other basic support, then that is easy to prove by opening the books,” said Sanjay Dhall, a research physician at the University of California, Los Angeles. “I suspect however, that opening the books would reveal that a significant chunk of these funds, or even the majority, are paying an army of unnecessary administrators.”

At a time when the value of college is being challenged because of exorbitant tuition and fees, and the federal government is struggling to rein in debt, the story of indirect funding offers a window into the history of runaway costs and the growing power of college officials. RCI has also learned that NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya has been selling a new plan that makes the grant process more competitive for institutions that were overlooked in the past. 

Indirect Costs Hard To Define

Distributing over $37 billion in grants every year, NIH is the largest funder of biomedical research on the planet, far exceeding the European Commission, which spends around $12 billion, and dwarfing the Gates Foundation’s $1 billion. 

Every NIH grant a university researcher receives provides two categories of funding: direct and indirect costs. The direct costs include all items the researcher submitted as part of the project’s budget, from laboratory equipment to a percentage of salaries.

Indirect costs are harder to define. The funding goes to administrators, and how they use it is shrouded in mystery. What’s more, indirect rates vary from university to university for reasons that few understand and can explain. 

While institutions charge private foundations like Gates a mere 10% and Rockefeller 15% for indirect costs, they charge the NIH much higher rates – 69% for Harvard, 67.5% for Yale, and 63.7% for Johns Hopkins. 

“How do you think Harvard built all those buildings?” one NIH official, a graduate of Harvard Medical School who insisted on anonymity, told RCI. “NIH indirect costs paid for that.”

When Trump first proposed the 15% cap in 2016, Harvard president Drew G. Faust told the student newspaper in late 2017 that she flew to Washington, D.C., to lobby Republicans in both the House and the Senate to stop it. “We’re bringing in quite a bit of money through federal contracts which provide money for a lot of buildings and other infrastructure that makes possible what we do going forward,” a Harvard dean told the student newspaper. “So if that was to all go away, we’d have to sit down and look at that.”

The Trump administration’s proposal to cap overhead at 15% would cost university administrators billions of dollars that they control. Among the many critics was Holden Thorp, editor-in-chief of the flagship journal Science and a former university administrator. He wrote an editorial last February titled “A Direct Hit” that described the cap as a “ruthless takedown of academia.”

The scientific community must unite in speaking out against this betrayal of a partnership that has enabled American innovation and progress,” he wrote.

In response to questions from RCI, Thorp said any change to NIH overhead funding should be done in partnership with the scientific community. “Indirect costs are used to secure debt on research facilities and were treated as very secure by banks and the rating agencies,” Thorp said. “Pulling all of that abruptly – without following processes with decades of precedent – is certainly betraying a partnership by putting the universities in difficulty with their lenders and bond ratings.” 

Inexorable Rise in Charges

It turns out that concerns over universities possibly misusing federal grant money date back more than half a century, according to Thorp’s own publication. In 1955, the federal government almost doubled the 8% premium paid for university overhead. A decade later, Science reported that Congress lifted the overhead ceiling to 20%, maintaining a flat rate to assure more taxpayer dollars were targeted at scientific research, and less spent on constructing new buildings. Some members of Congress believed that “the universities need not accept the grants if they can’t afford them.” Elected officials also worried that indirect costs would not go to research but to support other university efforts.

You might be surprised if you read the list of money being spent for research in various universities,” one senator said in a 1963 Science news story. “Not only to pay the teachers, but also to construct buildings and facilities around the school.” 

Despite these concerns, lobbyists convinced the government in 1966 to remove all caps, empowering universities to negotiate directly with federal agencies to set their own overhead rates. In 1966, overhead consumed 14% of NIH grant expenditures. By the late 1970s, it consumed 36.4%. When the federal government attempted to backpedal in 1976 to bring “spiraling indirect cost rates under control,” it failed. 

Both Republicans and Democrats have long championed increasing NIH budgets, partly because grants for research land in congressional districts scattered across the nation. Republicans have often been the NIH’s biggest supporters. Fifteen years ago, Congress launched investigations into the NIH’s poor monitoring of grants that were awarded to research physicians with undisclosed ties to the pharmaceutical industry. Despite the unfolding scandal, Republican Sen. Arlen Specter pushed through a 34% increase in the NIH’s budget in 2009. During the 2013 government shutdown, the NIH was one of the few agencies that Republicans pushed President Obama to keep open. Two years later, Republicans cut many parts of Obama’s proposed 2015 budget, yet gave the president even more money than the increase he requested for the NIH.

Like some elected officials, academics have also long complained that high overhead harms academic scientists by diverting NIH funding to administrators. In 1981, a University of California researcher published a study in Science, which showed how “Funding has thus been markedly reduced, and this has become a critical factor limiting research support in the United States.”

By 1983, indirect costs accounted for 43% of the NIH grant budget. In response, then-NIH Director James B. Wyngaarden pushed to make more money available for scientists by paying administrators only 90% of what they claimed in overhead. 

“[L]egislators tend to sympathize with the investigators who are more interested in seeing federal money spent for equipment and researchers’ salaries in their labs than for light and heat and the services of typists and bookkeepers,” reported Science at the time. 

However, Science reported that Wyngaarden was met with stiff opposition from university officials and their allies in Congress.

When Wyngaarden tried to deal with the matter by sending a report to Congress, Science reported, officials from several university lobby groups shut the report down, calling it not “acceptable.”

One of Wyngaarden’s biggest critics was Stanford President Donald Kennedy, whose school was then charging one of the highest rates for indirect costs. Kennedy convened a group to attack cost-saving proposals, stating in a letter, “The NIH proposals to reduce reimbursement of those costs … will directly damage the research effort as a whole.” 

This effort appeared to succeed until Kennedy himself became ensnared in a scandal that showed Stanford’s indirect costs charged to the NIH paid for a bevy of personal goods and upkeep on a yacht. 

Stanford’s Taxpayer-Funded Yacht

Stanford’s yacht, the Victoria, was valued at $1.2 million and became a symbol of excess, with walnut and cherry paneling, brass lamps, marble counters, and lavish woodwork. Administrators used the yacht as a fundraising venue to wine and dine campus bigwigs. NIH money had paid for overhead to maintain it. 

As Congress and federal investigators dug into Stanford’s accounting, they discovered that administrators had also redirected NIH research overhead to pay $2,000 a month for flowers at President Kennedy’s home, $7,000 for his bed linens, and $6,000 to provide him with cedar-lined closets. Another college official had hosted Stanford football parties and charged the NIH $1,500 for booze.

Humiliated in the media, Stanford was forced to lower the indirect rate it charged the NIH from 78% to 55.5%, and federal agencies launched audits of overhead charges at dozens of other universities, resulting in millions of dollars returned to the NIH. 

With the politics and the media on his side, Michigan Congressman John Dingell launched reforms to indirect charges. Stanford and other institutions were forced to halt expensive building campaigns. President Clinton proposed a cap on indirect costs in a “concerted effort to shift national spending from overhead to funding research.” As in the past, universities opposed the change, and the White House buckled.

“One way or another, I’ve been involved in controversy about indirect cost rates for about 30 years,” a chancellor at the University of Maryland told The Baltimore Sun in 1994. 

Kennedy resigned from the Stanford presidency, as did several of his administrators. Kennedy later joined Science as editor-in-chief – a predecessor to Thorp – while universities’ charges for indirect costs to the NIH eventually snapped back to their former pricing, which continues to this day.

RCI spoke with several academic researchers at institutions scattered across the U.S., working at both private and public-funded universities. None wished to be named about their concerns about how their administrators spend NIH indirect funding, with one professor noting that administrators determine your career, so it makes no sense to criticize their spending habits.

While university presidents say administrators strictly account for NIH indirect funds, the reality appears to be different. Professors who bring in large sums of NIH money, sometimes referred to as heavy hitters, can complain and get some of the indirect costs back from the administrators for their own research and even personal use. At some institutions, department heads can get a cut of the indirect costs to set up slush funds, monies they can dole out to favored professors, or even divert to their own labs.

Professor Dhall said that after he published a March letter in the Wall Street Journal that supported Trump’s cap on indirect rates, he was contacted by colleagues across the country. “They congratulated me on going public and vehemently agreed, in private,” he said. 

A congressional staffer who has spent decades investigating problems at the NIH said that nobody truly understands how universities negotiate their NIH overhead rates. And once that money gets to the university, it disappears into a byzantine accounting system that seems designed to confuse government auditors, who rarely inspect university books.

“It’s a complete black box,” he said. “I wish someone could explain it to me.”

Trump’s Play To Change the Game

The Trump administration will lose the fight to cap indirect costs at 15%, a senior HHS official told RCI, because of the universities’ outsize influence. During the first Trump administration, universities caught wind that Trump planned to cap overhead rates. As they had done for over half a century, university lobbyists ran to Congress to complain, only now they sought an alliance with the pharmaceutical industry.

Responding to lobbying pressure, Republicans in the House and Senate inserted a provision into the appropriations bill in 2018 to block Trump’s attempt to change universities’ indirect cost rates. That provision has been included in every succeeding appropriations bill.

While it does not seem likely that Congress will strip the schools in their states and districts of billions of dollars in funding, NIH Director Bhattacharya has been floating his own proposal to revamp indirect payments to make them more equitable in private talks with members of Congress and university leaders. Shortly before Thanksgiving, Bhattacharya gave a dinner talk to the Republican Main Street Caucus, a group of 85 GOP members of Congress who are critical behind-the-scenes players among Republicans now running the House. 

A dinner participant recounted to RCI that Bhattacharya noted that more than half of the NIH’s money goes to 20 universities located on both coasts. These elite universities win a lion’s share of the grant money, including indirect costs, because they have the money to attract excellent scientists, in part because NIH money helped them build great infrastructure. 

This creates a vicious cycle that guarantees NIH will continue to fund institutions that have already won past NIH money – and which charge high indirect costs. To end this cycle, Bhattacharya wants to break off indirect costs into a separate category of infrastructure grants that universities can compete to win.

During the talk, Bhattacharya said that all the universities in the entire state of Florida now get as much money as Stanford. Yet, there’s no reason Florida could not become a hub for scientific research if the federal government invested in its scientific infrastructure. 

If Florida can provide lab space at a lower cost than Stanford, he said, they should get the money. Bhattacharya also wants to make it easier for academics to take their grant to different universities. If a Harvard researcher is offered more space or better facilities at a university in Kansas, because building costs there are cheaper, that professor should be able to transfer his grant. 

The NIH already provides specific grants for infrastructure, and the hope is that spreading the billions in indirect costs across the country will gain political support. 

“He wants to get this money out to the middle of the country, not just the coasts,” said Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks, Republican from Iowa. Dr. Miller-Meeks is one of the few physicians in Congress and said she was impressed with Bhattacharya’s talk at the Main Street Caucus dinner. However, she is uncertain whether Democrats would embrace the new proposal in today’s polarized environment.

I would think there are members from the center of the country that would like to see more money in their district,” she said.

A spokesperson told RCI that NIH remains focused on ensuring that funding is used efficiently and that direct and indirect costs contribute to scientific productivity. “Bhattacharya’s proposal represents one of several ideas being discussed publicly about how to structure federal support for research infrastructure,” the spokesperson said. “NIH looks forward to continuing to work constructively with Congress on this issue.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 13:20

DOJ's Inventory Of Unreleased Epstein Files Soars To 5.2 Million Pages

Zero Hedge -

DOJ's Inventory Of Unreleased Epstein Files Soars To 5.2 Million Pages

Already in violation of a statutory deadline and accused of engaging in rampant, unlawful redactions, it's been revealed that the US Department of Justice has about 5.2 million pages of documents related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein that still need to be reviewed, according to a document reviewed by Reuters and inside sources cited by the New York Times

The Epstein Files Transparency Act, which was enacted in November, gave the DOJ a Dec. 19 deadline for releasing "all unclassified records, documents, communications, and investigative materials" relating to Epstein and his convicted co-conspirator Ghislaine Maxwell. It released some 100,000 pages on the due date, but now we learn that first batch represented a tiny 1.9% of the total inventory -- before accounting for duplicates. 

The initial release of Epstein documents included this photo of former President Bill Clinton being embraced by an unidentified woman

With Republican Rep. Thomas Massie and Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna in discussions with other members of Congress about potentially holding Attorney General Pam Bondi in contempt, the DOJ is scrambling to amass a legion of 400 lawyers to work on the enormous task. Those lawyers will come from the DOJ's Criminal Division, the National Security Division, the FBI and the US Attorney's office in Manhattan, according to Reuters, with a goal of hammering out the mass-review between January 5 and 23. Until now, the DOJ has had almost 200 lawyers from the National Security Division reviewing the files. 

Of course, these extra lawyers being recruited into the project have other responsibilities, so the expectation is that they'll allocate three to five hours a day to the Epstein files. Volunteers will be enticed with time-off awards along with the option to work the Epstein project remotely. 

Last week, DOJ said it had discovered more than a million more documents with potential links to the Epstein cases. Seeking to fend off criticism, the DOJ said:   

“We have lawyers working around the clock to review and make the legally required redactions to protect victims, and we will release the documents as soon as possible. Due to the mass volume of material, this process may take a few more weeks."  

The threat of contempt isn't the only form of heat Bondi and the Trump administration are facing. On Christmas Eve, a group of 12 senators sent a letter to DOJ Acting Inspector General Don Berthiaume demanding an audit of the DOJ's handling of the Epstein files.

Beyond pointing to the failure to meet the Dec. 19 deadline, the senators said the huge number of redactions in the released documents have raised "serious questions as to whether the Department is properly applying the limited exceptions for redaction that are permitted under the Act. Any withholding or redaction beyond those specified circumstances is against the law."

Does anyone really believe that Epstein and Maxwell were the only wrongdoers in this vast, sordid saga? 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 13:00

Question #4 for 2026: What will the participation rate be in December 2026?

Calculated Risk -

Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2026. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on this blog).

I'm adding some thoughts and predictions for each question.

Here is a review of the Ten Economic Questions for 2025.

4) Participation Rate: In November 2025, the overall participation rate was at 62.5%, unchanged year-over-year from 62.5% in November 2024, and below the pre-pandemic level of 63.3% in February 2020. Long term, the BLS is projecting the overall participation rate will decline to 61.1% by 2034 due to demographics. What will the participation rate be in December 2026?

The overall labor force participation rate is the percentage of the working age population (16 + years old) in the labor force.   A large portion of the decline in the participation rate since 2000 was due to demographics and long-term trends.

Employment Pop Ratio and participation rateThe Labor Force Participation Rate in November 2025 was at 62.5% (red), down from the pre-pandemic level of 63.3% in February 2020, and up from the pandemic low of 60.2% in April 2020. (Blue is the employment population ratio).
From February 2020 to April 2020, 12 million people had left the labor force due to the pandemic.   By November 2025, the labor force was about 4 million higher than the pre-pandemic high.  
Population growth had been weak in the 2010s, but picked up over the last few years, primarily due to more immigration.   However, net immigration slowed in late 2024 and slowed sharply in 2025.
Employment Population Ratio, 25 to 54The second graph shows the participation rate for "prime age" workers (25 to 54 years old). The 25 to 54 participation rate was at 83.8% in November 2025 Red), above the pre-pandemic level of 83.0% - and near the all time high of 84.6% in 1999.  This suggests there are very few prime age workers that will return to the labor force.
This means demographics will be the key driver of the participation rate in 2026 (barring some unseen event).  Demographics will be pushing the participation rate down over the next decade, so, my guess is the participation rate will decline by 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points over the next year to around 62.3% in December 2026.
Here are the Ten Economic Questions for 2026 and a few predictions:

Question #4 for 2026: What will the participation rate be in December 2026?

Question #5 for 2026: What will the YoY core inflation rate be in December 2026?

Question #6 for 2026: What will the Fed Funds rate be in December 2026?

Question #7 for 2026: How much will wages increase in 2026?

Question #8 for 2026: How much will Residential investment change in 2026? How about housing starts and new home sales in 2026?

Question #9 for 2026: What will happen with house prices in 2026?

Question #10 for 2026: Will inventory increase further in 2026?

"This Is A Perfect Storm": Martin Armstrong Warns 'War Is Coming'

Zero Hedge -

"This Is A Perfect Storm": Martin Armstrong Warns 'War Is Coming'

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com 

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong says everywhere you look there is big trouble bubbling out of control.  

Armstrong sees the perfect storm closing in from all sides.  Let’s start with the war in Ukraine.  It looks like peace was possible until Russia claimed Ukraine attacked Putin’s residence.  Also, just today, a fresh headline reads “More than 600,000 Russians plunged into darkness as Ukrainian drones strike Moscow.”  Armstrong says,

“I don’t see this turning into a real sustainable peace. 

What they are trying to do is get a ceasefire so NATO can send in their troops pretending to defend Ukraine, and what’s going to happen is a false flag. 

They are going to say, oh, they shot one of our guys in the foot, therefore, that’s World War III.”

The extreme unpayable debt situation is worst in Europe.  Armstrong points out,

“Europe is so concerned with this idea of social justice. 

You can go on the Fed website and look at Europe’s miniscule quarterly growth rate and compare it to the United States. 

It’s a tiny fraction compared to the US.  Europe is committing economic suicide.  That’s what this war is about. 

If they don’t get war with Russia, the people are going to rise up with their pitchforks and go after parliament. . .. 

The EU is not going to survive.  It’s going to collapse. 

The computer says we are going into a stark global recession between 2024 and 2028.  The US will be the least affected, where Europe will probably be the worst.”

When it comes to metal, Armstrong says, “People who know war and crisis are coming are buying metals..."

"We have creative destruction.  You have AI coming in and you have unemployment rising and you have GDP rising. . .. You have shortages in commodities on top of this. . ..  Then you have geopolitical nonsense. 

Anthony Blinken (Secretary of State in the Biden Administration) put sanctions on Russia.  Look at the metals.  What did it do?  It cut off the supply of gold, silver and platinum coming out of Russia.  Now, you have China putting in a ban on exporting silver as of January 1, 2026.  

This is rather important.  China controls about 60% of the supply of silver. . .. This is one of the reasons why silver jumped up dramatically. 

This is a perfect storm.  On top of all this, NATO is there only for war.  That is it. . ..

Socrates is still saying Europe will lose badly in a war with Russia.”

Armstrong sees a bull market for gold, silver and other metals for years ahead.  One big reason is shortages in the metals.  Armstrong says, “I don’t see these shortages going away.  The bull market is more likely to go into 2032.  It will be volatile, and then you’ve got war coming.  Once you get into war, prices are going to go up even more.  It’s all a mess.  This is a perfect storm.”
There is much more in the 55-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong to talk about the perfect horrible storm coming for the world in 2026 for 12.30.25

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 12:35

Crew Paints Russian Flag On Iran-Linked Tanker To Avoid US Seizure

Zero Hedge -

Crew Paints Russian Flag On Iran-Linked Tanker To Avoid US Seizure

The weird saga of the US-sought third tanker off Venezuela which was nearly boarded by US forces before fleeing into the Atlantic continues, after US officials have newly revealed more information.

US attempts to intercept the oil tanker Bella 1 in the Atlantic have been complicated after the ship’s crew painted a Russian flag on its hull. It has avoided and evaded the US Coast Guard for more than ten days after refusing to comply with an interception near Venezuela on December 21.

Reports based on US officials describe that the crew got creative in their evasion efforts, as they've added a Russian tricolor to the side of the vessel and so are now claiming it is operating under Russian jurisdiction.

This has created new complications, given Washington had secured a court order authorizing the ship's seizure due to its alleged involvement in transporting Iranian crude. But now with the newly displayed flag Russian flag, this has made enforcement more difficult under international maritime law.

The tanker was traveling toward Venezuela without any cargo at the time that US Coast Guard forces tried to board it - and then it fled into open sea, after which US assets continued shadowing the ship.

Under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, authorities are allowed to board vessels that are flying false flags or lack proper registration - but in the scenario that Russia has officially registered the Bella 1, a forced boarding could risk diplomatic fallout and an international incident.

The tanker in question has been under US Treasury sanctions since 2024, as it has long been accused of transporting Iranian oil on behalf of Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

The vessel is owned by Louis Marine Shipholding Enterprises, which is based in Turkey, and most of the crew are believed to be Russian, Indian, and Ukrainian.

The now apparently stymied attempt to apprehend the vessel comes soon on the heels of President Trump having ordered the US military to enforce a two-month "quarantine" of Venezuelan oil, signaling an intensification of gunboat diplomacy aimed at fostering regime instability in Caracas, with potential spillover effects that could ripple across the Caribbean into Cuba.

"While military options still exist, the focus is to first use economic pressure by enforcing sanctions to reach the outcome the White House is looking (for)," a US official told Reuters earlier this month.

"The efforts so far have put tremendous pressure on Maduro, and the belief is that by late January, Venezuela will be facing an economic calamity unless it agrees to make significant concessions to the U.S," the U.S. official told Reuters.

According to analytics firm Kpler, Caracas has shipped nearly 900,000 barrels per day this year and relies on 400 dark-fleet tankers to transport the crude, much of which is bound for China. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 12:15

High Electricity Prices Are A Choice Blue States Make Every Day

Zero Hedge -

High Electricity Prices Are A Choice Blue States Make Every Day

Authored by Isaac Orr & Tom Pyle via RealClearEnergy,

Americans are anxious about their utility bills – and with good reason. Three quarters of U.S. residents are concerned about their electricity and gas bills rising this year, and 80% feel powerless over how much they are charged for utilities. For nearly two-thirds of U.S. billpayers, simply keeping the lights on has become a growing source of financial stress.

(don't say her name three times in front of a mirror)

Those concerns are grounded in reality. U.S. electricity prices rose 27% during the Biden administration and another 11% between January and September 2025. Yet despite a national narrative eager to blame President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the real drivers of high electricity prices are far closer to home.

Electricity affordability is shaped primarily by state policy choices, and states choosing the most expensive path are overwhelmingly blue. So, blue-state residents are experiencing the pain much more than those in red states.

A new report from Always On Energy Research and the Institute for Energy Research finds that 86% of states with electricity prices above the national average voted for Democratic presidential candidates in 2020 and 2024. In contrast, 80% of the 10 states with the lowest electricity prices are reliably red. That’s not a coincidence. Those high prices reflect a consistent pattern of state-level energy policies that dictate emissions reduction targets at the expense of affordability, reliability, and physics. 

States have the exclusive power to decide which resources supply their grids under the Federal Power Act. Governors, legislatures, and public utility commissions – not the White House – decide whether to impose renewable portfolio standards (RPS), enforce Net-Zero mandates, or prematurely retire reliable power plants. Those decisions directly determine how much families and businesses pay for electricity.

Today, 28 states enforce an RPS, requiring a certain percentage of retail electricity sales to come from renewable sources, and 16 states have 100% clean energy standards (CES) or carbon-free mandates. Many of these policies compel utilities to overbuild intermittent generation, such as wind and solar, thereby requiring significant investments in transmission, grid-scale storage, and backup generation to maintain reliability. The result is a higher total system cost, which is passed onto ratepayers in the form of higher electricity rates.

Consider that the U.S. average electricity price between January 2025 and August 2025 was 13.54 cents per kilowatt-hour. Each of the five most expensive states mandates 100% of their electricity come from renewable or carbon-free sources in the coming decades. Eight of the 10 states with the lowest electricity prices voted for the Republican presidential candidate in 2020 and 2024, and seven of the 10 don’t have renewable or carbon-free mandates.  

New York is a prime blue state example, where electricity prices were 58% higher than the national average during the same period. The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) found that New York experienced the second-fastest increase in electricity prices nationwide, with residential customers suffering a 36% increase between 2019 and 2024. PPI points to “the immense capital investment required to transform the grid and specific policy choices that increase the cost of energy production,” as well as the closure of the Indian Point nuclear plant. 

It’s clear that Governor Kathy Hochul knows exactly which policy choices are driving up electricity costs — because she’s scrambling to roll them back. Ms. Hochul has delayed implementation of the state’s cap-and-tax mandates under the 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA), which includes a substantial renewable energy mandate requiring 70% renewable energy by 2030 and 100% carbon-free energy by 2040.

The state’s Department of Environmental Conservation defended the delay, arguing in court that the regulations would impose “extraordinary and damaging costs upon New Yorkers.” Ms. Hochul has approved two major natural gas pipelines and delayed implementation of the state’s ban on gas stoves in new buildings – a tacit admission that reliability and affordability still matter in New York.

California, however, remains committed to the most expensive path in the country with the fastest rate increase, now double the national average. For years, Governor Gavin Newsom and the California legislature have imposed on ratepayers a carbon-emissions reduction mandate, renewable mandates, solar cost-shifting through net metering, nuclear reactor closures, and EV charging subsidies.

For all of his climate-friendly posturing, Mr. Newsom signed a bill to ramp up oil drilling in Kern County, and his Energy Commission has delayed its plan to penalize refinery profits for five years. These reversals underscore a central truth: ideology will take a back seat to cost and reliability.

There’s a silver lining, however. While states can choose to raise electricity costs for their residents through bad policies, they can also choose to lower costs through good policies. For instance, Florida is the second-largest electricity producer in the country, behind only Texas. Residents require air conditioning for its hot, humid summers and heating in its mild winters. However, Florida delivers electricity at prices 2% below the U.S. average—mainly because it generates 75% of its power from imported natural gas. It has avoided aggressive climate mandates and delivers below-average electricity prices despite frequent hurricanes that require ongoing investment in the grid. 

Louisiana and Kentucky have also invested in wise policies. Louisiana posted the third-lowest electricity rates in the U.S. in 2025, and Kentucky had the lowest rates east of the Mississippi River. Nearly three-quarters of Louisiana’s electricity is generated from natural gas, leveraging its abundant natural gas production and robust pipeline network. Kentucky, similarly, leverages its coal resources to generate 67% of the state’s electricity, with another 26% by natural gas. Neither has pursued aggressive carbon emissions reduction or renewable energy mandates.

Pinning the blame on the federal government and President Trump, as Democrats have been eager to do, ignores the vital role that states play in delivering affordable, reliable electricity. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright recognizes the same, stating on Fox News that “Electricity prices have risen very fast in blue states with restrictive renewable portfolio standards.” 

The Department of Energy and President Trump can set the tone, but they don’t dictate the composition of state grids or the bills consumers receive each month. Those decisions rest squarely with governors, legislators, and regulators. Ultimately, it’s up to the states to prioritize reliable, affordable, dispatchable generation and drive down electricity prices.

High electricity rates aren’t an unavoidable consequence of modern life or federal policy. They are the predictable outcome of state-level choices that ignore reliability, undervalue dispatchable generation, and impose rigid mandates regardless of cost. Americans deserve leaders who recognize that keeping the lights on at a modest price isn’t optional. The states keeping electricity affordable today offer a roadmap for those willing to learn.

Isaac Orr is vice president of research at Always On Energy Research, a nonprofit energy modeling firm.

Tom Pyle is President of the Institute for Energy Research, a nonprofit energy research organization.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 11:55

"Regulatory Theater": Meta Created 'Playbook' To Obscure Scam Ads From Regulators, Avoid Forced Verification

Zero Hedge -

"Regulatory Theater": Meta Created 'Playbook' To Obscure Scam Ads From Regulators, Avoid Forced Verification

Last month Reuters revealed that roughly 10% of Meta's annual revenue, or $16 billion, comes from advertising scams and banned goods - as the company only bans advertisers when its systems detect a 95% probability of fraud, while charging higher ad fees to suspicious buyers - a system critics describe as “pay to play.”

Data from fraud-reporting firm SafelyHQ shows Facebook is cited in 85% of scam reports that identify a platform, with more than 50,000 verified complaints collected so far, which CEO Patrick Quade suggests an implied victim count in the "tens of millions."

Now, internal documents reviewed by Reuters indicate that Meta developed tools to both reduce scam advertising, and to limit regulators’ visibility into said ads after governments threatened measures that could severely cripple advertising revenue by forcing the company to reveal the identity of advertisers.

The efforts began last year after Japanese regulators highlighted a surge of scam advertising on Facebook and Instagram. The fraudulent ads included fake investment opportunities and artificial-intelligence-generated celebrity endorsements. Fearing that Japanese authorities might impose strict verification and transparency requirements that would materially affect its advertising business, the company launched an enforcement push aimed at reducing the number of fraudulent ads. At the same time, the documents show, the company focused on how those ads appeared to regulators.

The Ad Library and "Prevalence Perception"

Meta's remedy centered on its 'Ad Library,' a public database designed to allow users to search for ads running on Facebook and Instagram. Meta employees realized Japanese regulators were using keyword searches in the library as a simple measure of the company’s effectiveness at tackling scams.

To improve performance on that measure, Meta staff identified the keywords and celebrity names most frequently used by Japanese Ad Library users. They then repeatedly ran those searches themselves, deleting ads that appeared fraudulent from both the Ad Library and Meta’s platforms.

Internally, the documents describe this work as managing the "prevalence perception" of scams. The stated objective was to make problematic content "not findable" for “regulators, investigators and journalists.”

Internal documents reviewed by Reuters show Meta studying Ad Library searches and adjusting enforcement to reduce the discoverability of problematic advertising. (Reuters)

The tactic produced rapid results. Within weeks, Meta staff reported finding fewer than 100 scam ads in a week, followed by several consecutive days in which searches returned none. A Japanese legislator publicly praised the apparent improvement, and Japan ultimately did not impose the advertiser-verification rules Meta had feared.

From Local Response to Global Strategy

Given their success in dealing with Japan, Meta incorporated the approach into what internal documents describe as a "general global playbook" for responding to regulatory scrutiny worldwide. The same techniques - scrubbing Ad Library search results and reducing the discoverability of scams - were later deployed in markets including the United States, Europe, India, Australia, Brazil and Thailand.

This was all part of a broader strategy for delaying or weakening regulatory action, according to the report - with the playbook guiding Meta officials to offer voluntary measures, requesting time to assess their impact, and resisting universal advertiser verification unless laws leave no alternative.

Former Meta fraud investigator Sandeep Abraham, who left the company in 2023, said the approach distorts the transparency the Ad Library was meant to provide. Rather than offering an accurate view of advertising on Meta’s platforms, he said, it presents a curated picture optimized for regulatory review. Abraham described the tactic as "regulatory theater."

Internal documents reviewed by Reuters describe a “global playbook” aimed at delaying advertiser-verification mandates, even as company analyses show verification reduces scam ads but would cut revenue. (Reuters)

Meta disputes that characterization. Company spokesman Andy Stone told Reuters that removing scam ads from the Ad Library is not misleading because the ads are removed from Meta’s systems overall. Fewer scams appearing in the library, he said, indicate fewer scams on the platform.

"To suggest otherwise is disingenuous," Stone said. 

Yet, the best solution would be costly - as Meta has long recognized that universal advertiser verification would significantly reduce scam activity. Internal analyses indicate the company could implement such a system globally in less than six weeks - yet the company has repeatedly balked at the cost. Executives estimated that universal verification would require roughly $2 billion to implement and could eliminate up to 4.8% of total revenue by blocking unverified advertisers. Despite generating $164.5 billion in revenue last year, nearly all from advertising, the company chose not to proceed.

Internal data show that unverified advertisers account for a disproportionate share of harm. One 2022 analysis found that 70% of newly active advertisers were promoting scams, illicit goods or low-quality products.

Instead of adopting verification, Meta chose what documents describe as a "reactive only" stance, accepting universal verification only where mandated by law.

Whack-a-Mole

Despite Meta's playbook, Taiwanese regulators dropped the hammer - threatening steep fines for unverified financial scam ads. Meta rushed to comply with new rules requiring advertiser verification, which authorities said coincided with dramatic reductions in investment and impersonation scams.

Meta’s own analyses, however, showed that much of the blocked fraudulent advertising was rerouted to users in other countries, displacing both revenue and consumer harm rather than eliminating it. Unless verification was enforced globally, staff warned, Meta would be relocating scams rather than eradicating them.

Meta’s internal analyses, reviewed by Reuters, found that ads blocked in one market were often rerouted to others, preserving revenue while shifting consumer harm. (Reuters)

Even then, the documents show, the financial costs to Meta have remained small. Meta’s own tests showed verification immediately reduced scam ads in those countries by as much as 29%. But much of the lost revenue was recouped because the same blocked ads continued to run in other markets.

If an unverified advertiser is blocked from showing ads in Taiwan, for example, Meta will show those ads more frequently to users elsewhere, creating a whack-a-mole dynamic in which scam ads prohibited in one jurisdiction pop up in another. In the case of blocked ads in Taiwan, “revenue was redistributed/rerouted to the remaining target countries,” one March 2025 document said, adding that consumer injury gets displaced, too. “This would go for harm as well,” the document noted. -Reuters

Hong Kong is another example - where Meta lobbyists moved quickly in 2024 to blunt a proposal by financial regulators that would have required verification of advertisers promoting investment products. To preempt stricter rules, Meta staff helped regulators draft a voluntary “anti-scam charter” and coordinated with Google to present what one lobbyist described internally as a “united front.” The final language, the documents note, imposed no new verification requirements or product changes. In an internal message celebrating the outcome, a Meta lobbyist wrote that regulators had relaxed measures that would have forced identity checks for financial advertisers, adding that officials expressed “huge appreciation” for Meta’s participation. Hong Kong regulators later said advertiser verification was only one of several tools available to platforms and emphasized that they lacked authority to mandate such requirements, while urging social media companies to do more to detect and remove fraudulent content.

Internal documents reviewed by Reuters show Meta staff celebrating the success of lobbying efforts in Hong Kong that avoided new advertiser-verification requirements. (Reuters)

In a statement, Hong Kong financial regulators said that "advertiser verification is one of many ways social media platforms can protect the investment public."

In light of these findings, Meta has assigned scam handling its highest internal risk rating for 2025, citing regulatory, legal, reputational and financial exposure. One internal estimate warned that potential liability in Europe and Britain alone could cost as much as $9.3 billion.

Meanwhile, regulatory scrutiny has intensified - with European authorities having formally requested information about Meta’s handling of scam ads, and two U.S. senators urging federal agencies to investigate the company. The attorney general of the U.S. Virgin Islands has sued Meta, alleging it knowingly profited from fraud. Meta has said it strongly disagrees with the allegations.

For now, the documents suggest Meta believes its approach is working.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 11:35

At the Money: Tax Management for Investors

The Big Picture -



 

At The Money: Tax Management for Investors with Bill Artzerounian, RWM (December 31, 2025)

There is still time to make some smart moves to reduce your 2025 taxes. You have to be proactive to take advantage of the latest changes in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. But you better hurry – there is less than three weeks left in the year!

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Bill Artzerounian is Director of Tax Services at Ritholtz Wealth Management, where he focuses on the specific steps investors can take to better manage their taxes.

For more info, see:

Personal Bio

LinkedIn

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

 

Intro: Let me tell you how it will be
There’s one for you, nineteen for me
‘Cause I’m the taxman

Barry Ritholtz: It’s never too early to be thinking about taxes. April is only a few months away, but you have questions and we have answers. Let’s discuss how you can reduce or defer your taxes over the long haul.

I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At The Money, we’re gonna discuss important issues for all investors about understanding how to lower their tax bill.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your money. Let’s bring in Bill Erian full disclosure. Bill is a director of tax services at Ritholtz Wealth Management, where I also happen to coincidentally work and have my name on the door.

Let’s start with the basics. Where does tax management sit in the hierarchy of priorities for, for investors. How does this look relative to things like asset allocation or security selection or even asset location and their own behavior?

Bill Artzerounian: Thanks for having me back, Barry. I’m biased. I’m a CPA, I run the tax practice here. I think about taxes all day.

But I’m a proponent of controlling what you can control. We can’t control the market. Asset allocation gives us. You know, we can run back tests, we can look at historical data. That’s very useful. Even security selection, that’s, you know, individual stocks are more volatile than say, uh, an index fund.

But taxes, we have a set of rules and we can, we can, we can define our behavior based on those rules, at least in the short term. We don’t know what tax law will look like 20 years from now. We have a set of rules for the foreseeable future. We have to act within those rules, but it gives us guidelines, and that’s where we can actually make a difference, because we don’t know what the market’s gonna do tomorrow, next week, next month, next year. but we do know what the tax code will look like, at least until probably 2028.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk about tax aware portfolios. What are the core issues that investors can pull the right levers on? What moves the needle the most?

Bill Artzerounian: At it’s very basics. We have different buckets of tax assets. We have pre-tax money, like a traditional 401k. We have after-tax money, which is, say a brokerage account. And then we have tax-free money, which is your, which is your Roth account.

Asset location can be huge and we’re big fans of. Asset diversification and clients come to u  well versedin asset diversification, but not necessarily tax diversification.

Tax diversification to me means you have different levels of assets in each of these buckets, and that gives you a lot of flexibility when you need it. A lot of times this comes up in retirement. We have folks come to us and they stocked away money in a 401k their whole career. They have a couple million bucks. They feel great about it. And then we have to break the news like, “Hey, you’re gonna pay tax on every single dollar here, and there’s no flexibility in their plan.”

Every dollar that they distribute, every dollar that they need for the rest of their lives is going to be taxable. Whereas if you plan ahead and you can diversify those different buckets of tax money, that’s where that’s where you provide a lot of flexibility for yourself in the future.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s talk about planning ahead and, and perhaps the thing that I find most fascinating, and I’ve been reading the most about, and I still feel like I don’t have a solid handle on it, is the Mega-Roth Backdoor conversion. Tell us what that is. What are the advantages of it? How do you make sure you’re doing that both correctly and legally according to the IRS?

Bill Artzerounian: Call it Super Roth. We can call it Mega Roth. It’s just a juiced up Roth option. In your employer retirement plan, let’s just use. Let’s just use 401Ks as an example. There are other employer retirement vehicles, but let’s use 401Ks.

The limit in 2025 for total 401k contributions is $70 grand. Now that can be employee, myself, contributing to a raw, uh, to contributing to a 401k, or that can come from the employer. Normally for a lot of plans, it’s a combination of the two.

Let’s say I’m 50 years old, I’m contributing $30K to my pre-tax, 401k in 2025. Next year, that’s gonna change slightly. We talked about that last time, but then my employer’s gonna kick in, let’s say 10 grand. That’s their match. So total we’re at 40 K, the remaining 30. If the, if the 401k plan allows it, that remaining 30 — 70k maximum minus 40k already contributed — that can be made on an after-tax basis. And then you have money that’s already been taxed in the 401k you convert that to Roth.

So now we have, we have 40K that went in pre-tax between employer and employee, and then we have 30 K that’s now in a tax free Roth bucket. So we started our discussion talking about tax diversification. This is a great way to do it. Now you have pre-tax money growing and you have tax free money growing.

And again, that’s gonna give you a ton of flexibility down the line. And even inside of those plans, you might want to structure the Roth money a little bit more aggressively because you know Roth money, imperfect financial theory is gonna be the last money you touch. So you might wanna be more aggressive in the Roth. If you have a bond allocation, you might want that in the, in the traditional or the pre-tax sleeve.

The mega backdoor Roth allows for these higher contributions. It’s a kind of an unlock for a lot of folks who are earning a lot of money. They want tax efficiency. A lot of plans are starting to pick this up.

So if you’re listening and you’re a high earner and you have some sway at your company, go ask your CFO, go ask HR. And see if you can implement the, the, the me, the mega backdoor Roth strategy.

Barry Ritholtz: And then what about the full-on Mega-Roth conversion? Do you take a traditional 401k? What does that look like when you convert that to a Roth?

Bill Artzerounian: The extra 30 K that I alluded to that goes in as in quote unquote after-tax contribution. When you convert after-tax money, you don’t pay tax on it. You don’t pay tax twice. That’s kind of a, a foundation of the US tax code. You don’t pay tax twice. Now, if you’re talking about taking money, you took a deduction on, that’s considered pre-tax money.

That 40 k of pre-tax money, if I wanted to convert that to Roth. That’s gonna be a Roth conversion and that one, that one’s gonna be taxable. That may make sense if you’re, uh, as an investor, you know, maybe you’re in your twenties and thirties and you have a long runway to retirement and you want full Roth money, that’s, that’s a great case to convert pre-tax money to Roth now and benefit from long term tax free growth in the Roth, uh, for, for decades to come.

Barry Ritholtz: What are some of the more common tax traps that you see around equity comp? Walk us through. RSUs, ISOs, NSOs, Employee Stock Purchase plans, et cetera.

Bill Artzerounian: We call that equity comp alphabet soup, Barry. It’s, it’s really confusing. A lot of folks out in the Bay Area or in other tech companies, they get employed by these companies, they’re like, here’s your package, and they have no idea what it means.

I think the first thing is just a, an understanding of. Of what you own and then an understanding of how it’s taxed.

RSUs are a little simple. These are restricted stock. Restricted stock is going to be paid on a stated vesting schedule, and it’s almost like a cash bonus. You’re just receiving stock instead of cash. Once you receive it, it’s yours to do what you want.

Options are a little bit more tricky. There’s two types of options. Non-qualified and incentive stock options, the tax treatment is different, but the way to think about it is: You don’t get anything for free. The IRS says, no, you don’t. You don’t get anything for free. So if there’s a difference in your option between what you pay for the share or your strike price and what the share is worth, there’s gonna be a tax component on that difference. We call it a spread or a bargain element, but that’s the big difference

At at the very basics, what folks that are paid in equity need to do is be proactive with a tax planner. I’ve seen far too often, uh, folks with RSUs or they exercise options and they have a big tax bill in April and they have no idea where it came from. Because in my experience, folks don’t feel stock. They feel cash. They know when they’re paid in cash. They don’t know when they’re paid in stock. So if you’re paid in stock and you recognize that as income, you’re not thinking about it. And then you’re left with a big tax bill down the road and you’re like, where I didn’t make a million dollars, I made 500 K. but then you realize, oh, that extra 500 K was stock, not cash. Therefore, I didn’t feel it.

Barry Ritholtz: What about some of the clients we have at some really high growth companies, Apple, Google, Palantir, Nvidia, they’re seeing their stock holdings go through the roof. What are best practices for those folks? How soon do they need to start thinking about managing capital gains?

Bill Artzerounian: Well, that depends. It depends how comfortable they are with the stock, both in the short term and long term. And there’s bias here, right? If you work for a company, in theory, you’re bought into what that company is doing, therefore you don’t really wanna sell the shares, but then you create some concentration risk.

When you’re, when you’re paid in equity, it accumulates. And if that accumulates to a point where. A small move in the stock is keeping you up at night because on paper you’re worth X and then the next day you’re worth X minus whatever, you might wanna diversify a little bit, and that’s where effective tax planning is gonna be crucial, because you don’t just wanna rip a bandaid off, you wanna strategically plan for capital gains based on certain limits.

It could be capital gain brackets, it could be salt limits last time on, on deductions. There’s a, there’s a very structured way to do this, but ultimately it’s gonna depend on. How comfortable you are with concentrated positions in your portfolio, and how much are you willing to pay tax to get rid of that concentration?

Barry Ritholtz: What happens with someone who not only is getting their income from a company, but they just have so much concentrated risk in that equity? What sort of advice do we give folks like that?

Bill Artzerounian: There’s a couple options. Number one, you could just pay tax on it. That’s a win. Especially at long-term gain rates, you know, our clients are are pushing 35, 37% on their ordinary income, but their long-term capital gain rate is gonna be 20%. They’ll probably pay 3.8%, which is net investment income tax. But that’s a reasonable rate to pay for all this growth.

You’ve won! Now create some tax sell, sell the capital gain, and help yourself sleep at night because again, if that stock moves 10%. It’s gonna be material to your overall net worth. There are some other mechanisms.

We’re heavy with direct indexing here, we’ve had a lot of success with the O’Shaughnessy team [now part of Franklin Templeton] on direct indexing and creating tax losses to use against concentrated positions, or maybe use tax losses against real estate holdings or other stuff.

There are some newer things. Bill Sweet calls this late stage capitalism where there’s this, there’s this slew of new products to either avoid or defer taxes. 351 exchanges come, come into mind where you take a, you take a concentrated position, you find a group of investors, you bundle it into an ETF. And you have a diversified basket now rather than a concentrated position.

It doesn’t necessarily solve the tax problem because your basis is your basis. You can’t change that. So if I have a million dollars of stock with a $5,000 basis, even if I exchange that for a, a diversified ETF, my basis is still five grand.  So whenever I, whenever I wanna sell some shares of that new ETF, I’m still gonna have a pretty big capital gains bill. But it does solve the diversification issue.

Barry Ritholtz: This traces back to real estate. If you sold an investment property and rolled into another one, you got to roll over the tax obligation. It sounds like the SEC is finally caught up with real estate investors. Tell us more about how that operates. If you’re sitting in highly appreciated stock, and let’s be blunt, this is late stage of the bull market. People are sitting on giant, low-cost basis positions. How does this exchange work? Is it work? Is it just ETFs? What else can you do this with?

Bill Artzerounian: There’s a slew of products on the market to solve these quote unquote problems. They’re not problems at all. They’re, they’re, they’re, these are, these are champagne problems.

But just like in real estate where a 1031 exchange looks like, you have a piece of property real estate, for example, you find a bigger piece of real estate. You have a capital gain in the existing property, and you roll it into the new property.

Again, this is tax deferral. It is not tax avoidance. Your basis stays low. And so what you end up with is you, you, you push the capital gain down the line. In real estate, and what you could do with liquid assets and securities is if you exchange and exchange and exchange your whole life. Then you pass, let’s say you die – my favorite thing to say is, “Nothing solves tax problems like death” but when you, you pass on the assets to your kids. And what you’ve effectively done is you’ve deferred capital gains until you die, and then your errors get step up in basis. So there are more mechanisms now.

To replicate what’s happened in real estate with liquid securities and other assets, and that’s, that’s allowed folks to defer, defer, defer. And then, you know, eventually we’ll, uh, uh, inevitably we’ll see a bear market and this will solve itself. But right now we’re seeing a lot of folks explore these options because we’ve had a hell of a run for 15 years now, and a lot of folks are sitting on big capital gains.

Barry Ritholtz: To say the very least. There’s been a whole new set of rules passed last year in 2025. Tell us what the most significant tax law changes were? What should investors be aware of?

Bill Artzerounian: The biggest change is what didn’t change at all, and that was actually tax rates. If the tax bill that was signed into law, we call it OB3 (one big, beautiful bill), if that was not signed into law by December 31st, or if there were no tax changes. Tax rates were set to increase by about 3 to 5% across the board, For folks earning the highest incomes, that would’ve gone from 37 to 39.6% and that 2.6% difference, that is unlimited. In theory, that could be up to six figures, seven figures, eight figures, nine figures, and that 2.6%. Is now kicked into every dollar that exceeds that that amount. So the biggest thing that changed is what didn’t change. And that’s tax rates.

The other changes that we’re seeing come into effect are a lot on the deduction side. There’s more strategy around tax deductions, charitable giving, state and local taxes, how to bump from 10K up to 40K for certain taxpayers.

For most taxpayers, we talk about charitable giving quite a bit. And those are, those are what we’re focused on is, is controlling the timing of deductions to time with income, right? Your deductions are worth more when your tax rate is at its highest than when your tax rate is lower. We’re trying to time charitable gifts. We’re trying to time salt deductions to coincide with our client’s highest income years.

Barry Ritholtz: You mentioned earlier, death solves a lot of tax problems. Turns out it solves a lot of problems. But, um, how do you integrate tax planning into estate planning? Are they really one and the same? Tell us what the thought process is there.

Bill Artzerounian: They are one and the same with totally different rules. Estate tax as a whole doesn’t come up outside of the most wealthy individuals, right? Right now the estate exemption is gonna be like 30 million bucks for a joint family.

But Income tax plays a role throughout life, right? And so if we can, if we can integrate income tax planning with estate planning, it’s a, it’s a win for these families because at those levels of wealth, those are gonna be the folks that are most sensitive to big tax bills.

One thing we like to do. That combines the two is strategic Roth conversions. A lot of folks that we meet with, they have enough assets to live on. They’re thinking about  generationally, how do we take care of our kids within the bounds of the tax code? Roth conversions will allow, let’s say, parents to pay tax now rather than leave pre-tax money to their kids. Under Biden’s Secure Act 2.0, there’s now a 10 year rule for. Inherited IRAs. These are both pre-tax IRAs and Roth IRAs.

If I have a kid, let’s pretend I’m 80 years old. I have a 50-year-old daughter who’s a doctor in New York, right? Her tax rate is gonna be very, very high when I pass away. She’s gonna have 10 years to deplete my retirement accounts.

If that’s in pre-tax money, she’s gonna pay tax at the highest possible rate on that money. Whereas if I convert my assets, my pre-tax assets to Roth, maybe I pay tax at 24% instead of her 37% rate. I do that on her behalf, and now she has a lot more tax efficiency when she inherits my money.

Barry Ritholtz: What should people be thinking about as they start to organize their taxes, not just for 2026, but looking ahead to 2027?

Bill Artzerounian: It’s about timing income, right? Again, think about this, over the course of your lifetime, or if you have kids over the course of their lifetime, when can we pay tax at a lower rate than we might pay in the future?

That’s, that’s a lot of our work is just timing, income, timing, deductions to take advantage of fluctuations in, in tax rates and in, um, in, in lifetime income. And that’s where, that’s where you have to look forward. Again, look forward rather than backwards, is if you can time these things. These are gonna be marginal differences over the course of your lifetime, but marginal differences that can then compound, they’re really gonna add up over decades.

So to wrap up, there are a lot of steps investors can take to minimize what they pay in taxes, not only on capital gains. What they’re doing with their qualified accounts, where they locate their assets and changes they can make to make sure their kids aren’t saddled with the tax burden. Speak to your financial planner.

Speak to your tax professional. Make sure they’re working together so that you check every box that’s available to you to legitimately reduce and defer your taxes by as much as possible.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s at the Money.

 

 

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The post At the Money: Tax Management for Investors appeared first on The Big Picture.

Newsom's Massive Fraud Scandal No One Is Talking About

Zero Hedge -

Newsom's Massive Fraud Scandal No One Is Talking About

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

Everybody's buzzing about that Minnesota Medicaid mess with Gov. Tim Walz. Some are even calling it the largest fraud scandal ever. If only.

Blue-state fraud is undoubtedly a problem, and Walz should be held accountable if he did indeed look the other way. But what happened in the land of 10,000 lakes is tiny compared to the fraud in California under Gavin Newsom.

Heck, it makes Minnesota look like pocket change.

A fresh 92-page bombshell from the California State Auditor lays it all out.

“This latest report was issued by the state auditor, and that's a nonpartisan position; that state auditor now puts eight state agencies on the high-risk list of agencies to watch out for, for things like fraud and mismanagement as well as waste,” Newsmax correspondent Heather Myers revealed last week.

“Here's a look at that 92-page report. Newly added to the high-risk list is California's food stamp program. If the state doesn't get the improper payments under control, it could cost an extra $2.5 billion. Also on there is the Department of Finance, which was tasked with giving out COVID relief funds. Critics say $32 billion of that was taken by fraudsters. Then there are infrastructure issues like California's deteriorating dams, and also the high-speed train that's already cost taxpayers 18 billion without a single section of track complete.”

But wait, there’s more!

Other reports cite $24 billion spent on the homeless issue that critics claim the state lost track of. More recently, there's a report that says California cell phone users paid a surcharge for years to upgrade the state's 911 system,” she added.

Tallied all up, California taxpayers lost $70 billion to fraud.

But here’s where things get really interesting. While pressure is on in Minnesota to get to the bottom of the state’s fraud, California seems to be under the radar.

Now get this. Right in the middle of the fraud apocalypse, a new ballot initiative seeks to impose a one-time 10% wealth tax on billionaires' assets.

“Billionaires are threatening to leave California, and it's all because of a possible new ballot initiative in the state. It's a wealth tax. A healthcare labor group is behind this push, calling for a one-time tax on billionaires equal to 10 percent of their assets. And right now, it does not have enough signatures to get on the ballot,” CNN’s Abby Phillip reported Monday.

“These are big numbers, just to let people know what we're talking about here. Larry Page, for example, he's worth $258 billion. His estimated tax would be $12 billion. Peter Thiel, worth $27 billion. His estimated tax would be $1.2 billion. That's not $1.2 in your pocket. It's billions of dollars. So, I mean, should they or should they not?”

CNN's Scott Jennings torched the whole scheme; it’s about covering up the fraud.

“And it is not for the public benefit,” he pointed out.

“In California, the state auditor just found $70 billion in fraud going on in the state. The reason they need a wealth tax is to cover up the fraud. The hole in the budget in California is due to fraud. That's why they're trying to tax people." Boom. Panelists flipped out. Jennings doubled down. Why 5%? Why billionaires? Arbitrary envy tax to paper over Sacramento's black hole. Imagine handing more cash to the clowns who blew $24 billion on tent cities.”

Make no mistake about it, he’s right. Newsom is going to run for president in 2028. Something tells me that $70 billion in fraud on Gavin's watch is the kind of thing that won’t sit well in a primary, much less the general election.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/31/2025 - 11:15

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