Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
After stern warnings from President Trump, Iran has made clear it is not executing any protesters in the wake of the raging demonstrations and deadly unrest across Iranian cities which took place and grabbed world headlines earlier this month.
Trump had earlier claimed that Iran was going to execute 800, a figure that Iranian officials immediately rejected and scoffed at. Indeed it's unclear where the 800 number came from, and was probably floated by one of the anti-Tehran opposition groups based in Washington or Europe.
All of this back-and-forth aside, Tehran has made clear it will proceed with carrying out existent death row cases, especially related to the June 12-day war with Israel, during which time its security services rounded up dozens or possibly hundreds of Iranians alleged to be cooperating with Mossad or other foreign intelligence as assets.
source: EPA
So far some dozen people have been executed after being charged with espionage, connected to the events of last summer as well as its lead-up, and another one happened Wednesday, per international press reports and Iran state media:
Iran on Wednesday executed a man arrested in April 2025 on charges of spying for Israel's espionage agency Mossad, the judiciary said.
Hamidreza Sabet Esmailpour, who had been convicted of passing information to a Mossad agent, was hanged at dawn, the judiciary's Mizan news agency said.
Some in Washington and Tel Aviv might see this as a direct challenge to Trump, at a moment he has boasted of a "beautiful armada" parked in regional waters. He's also freshly warned Iran that "time is running out."
Still, Iran's judiciary proceeded, confirming Wednesday in a statement: "Hamidreza Sabet Esmaeilipour who was arrested on 29 April 2025, was hanged for the crime of espionage and intelligence cooperation in favor of a hostile intelligence service (Mossad) through… the transfer of classified documents and information, after the verdict was confirmed by the Supreme Court and through legal procedures."
The Islamic Republic likes to set examples, and so tends to widely publicize hangings like this, which is another reason why the prior referenced Trump claims of 800 set to be executed seems wildly exaggerated if not fabricated out of thin air.
Public executions have been a reality in Iran going all the way back to the Islamic Revolution of 1979, in which time (and since) people could be seen hanging from cranes in the capital city.
Recently, it has become clear that Israel was engaged in a massive spying and espionage campaign to pave the way for its 'Operation Rising Lion' - which is intent on destroying Iran's nuclear energy program, and possibly even accomplishing regime change. Some Israeli officials have actually publicly boasted of this.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 11:25Mexico’s state oil company, Pemex, has backed out of a planned oil shipment to Cuba, the country's president appeared to confirm. The move comes after President Donald Trump insisted that "zero" oil would be sent to the island, and follows reports that Washington plans regime change there by the end of the year.
Speaking during her daily press conference on Tuesday, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum did not deny earlier reports about the canceled Pemex shipment, which was originally scheduled for sometime in January.
Eyepix Group/Shutterstock
"It is a sovereign decision, and it is made at the time deemed necessary," she said when asked about the reports, stressing that such shipments are determined by the state oil firm.
Reuters reported last week that the Mexican government was reviewing whether to continue sending oil to Cuba, fearing potential reprisals from the United States.
Washington has maintained a full trade embargo on the island for decades, and imposed a blockade on Venezuelan oil bound for Cuba late last year, soon after US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over dubious drug charges.
While that left Mexico as Cuba’s main petroleum supplier – accounting for some 44% of its crude imports, per UPI – President Trump insisted that "zero" money or oil would be sent to the island earlier this month, forcing Mexico to reevaluate its trade policy.
Asked whether her country could play a role mediating discussions between Washington and Havana, Sheinbaum said such an initiative could only proceed if it were requested by both sides, but added that Mexico would continue to promote dialogue.
Those efforts may be insufficient, however, as Washington is now reportedly seeking to execute regime change in Cuba by the end of the year, according to recent reporting by the Wall Street Journal.
The paper said last week that US officials were seeking "Cuban government insiders who can help cut a deal to push out the Communist regime" in the coming months, hoping to use Maduro’s kidnapping as a "blueprint" to topple the Cuban state.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 11:05Oil prices hit a fresh four-month high this morning after President Trump threatened another attack on Iran, urging Tehran to negotiate a nuclear deal.
“Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social network, adding that “the next attack will be far worse!” than the one that took place last year.
Prices pared gains somewhat after Iran’s mission to the UN repeated in a post on X that it stands ready for dialogue based on mutual respect and interests, but said it will “defend itself and respond like never before,” to US aggression.
API
Crude -247k
Cushing -92k
Gasoline -415k
Distillates +2.01mm
DOE
Crude -2.295mm (+1.95mm exp)
Cushing -278k
Gasoline +223k
Distillates +329k
Total crude and fuel stockpiles fell last week for the first time since early December led by a surprise crude draw (bigger than the small one reported by API)...
Source: Bloomberg
Bloomberg reports that the 6 million barrel draw (which was the biggest since October) was led by a decline in crude inventories and also the biggest drop in propane inventories since early last year ahead of the big freeze.
Crude production fell to 13.7 million barrels a day last week, down by 36,000 barrels a day from the previous week. The drop may reflect the initial impact of the winter storm that hit the US in recent days and came as the number of rigs drilling for oil edged higher for a second week, with 1 unit put into operation last week, according to Baker Hughes.
Source: Bloomberg
WTI is holding on to early gains after the surprise draw...
Finally, circling back to the start, the potential risk to Iranian supplies has injected a premium into oil prices and led futures to start the year on a strong footing, up more than 10% this month, despite forecasts for a glut. That has also kept the cost of bullish options high relative to bearish ones.
“Market sentiment appears to be gradually turning more positive, as the bearish oversupply narrative so prevalent in the second half of 2025 weakens,” Standard Chartered analysts including Emily Ashford wrote in a note.
“We envisage an uptick in volatility and increasing focus on both supply and demand risks.”
The prompt spread for both oil benchmarks — the difference between their two nearest contracts — has widened in a bullish backwardation structure over the course of this month, indicating tighter supply.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 10:42Amazon is laying off about 16,000 more employees as it works to cut bureaucracy and respond to growing competition from AI.
The move follows October’s 14,000 job cuts and the closure of its gaming unit. The company also announced it will shut down its Amazon-branded grocery and cashierless stores.
A note on the company's website on Wednesday said: "I want to let you know that we're making additional organizational changes across Amazon that will impact some of our teammates. I recognize this is difficult news, which is why I’m sharing what’s happening and why."
"As I shared in October, we've been working to strengthen our organization by reducing layers, increasing ownership, and removing bureaucracy. While many teams finalized their organizational changes in October, other teams did not complete that work until now."
It continued: "The reductions we are making today will impact approximately 16,000 roles across Amazon, and we're again working hard to support everyone whose role is impacted. That starts with offering most US-based employees 90 days to look for a new role internally (timing will vary internationally based on local and country level requirements)."
"While we’re making these changes, we’ll also continue hiring and investing in strategic areas and functions that are critical to our future. We’re still in the early stages of building every one of our businesses and there’s significant opportunity ahead," it concludes.
Amazon’s layoffs follow other major tech cuts early in 2026, including Autodesk’s plan to eliminate about 1,000 roles (~7% of its workforce) amid a restructuring that includes shifting investment toward AI and cloud, and Pinterest’s decision to cut nearly 15% of employees as it reallocates resources toward AI initiatives; layoffs trackers also show thousands of tech workers have already been affected by job reductions across dozens of firms so far this year.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 10:30US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC Sara Eisen this morning that "the US always has a strong dollar policy".
This statement comes after President Trump's apparent 'comfort' last night with the dollar declining...
When asked if he was worried about losses in the dollar, Trump told reporters in Iowa on Tuesday: “No, I think it’s great.”
Bessent then dropped two more tapebombs...
While stating that "WE DON'T COMMENT ON INTERVENTION SPECULATION"...
Bessent then confirmed that "US IS 'ABSOLUTELY NOT' INTERVENING IN DOLLAR-YEN NOW"
This prompted yen weakness, retracing some of the post 'rate check' rally...
...and dollar strength...
This move comes minutes after Goldman Sachs Delta-One desk head warned: Near-term, feels dangerous to press dollar downside given how extreme the moves have been.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 10:18By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank
The de-Dollarisation meme rolled on yesterday as the Bloomberg Dollar spot index sank to its lowest reading since February of 2022. The fall became precipitous after Donald Trump was given an opportunity by journalists to talk up the Dollar, but instead replied “no, I think it’s great” when asked whether he was concerned about its recent drop. It would seem that there is no rage against the dying of the strong Dollar from the President.
Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had repeatedly assured financial markets last year that the administration still supports the strong Dollar policy. Trump himself has been a little more circumspect over the years, and implied yesterday that a weaker Dollar was good for US trade competitiveness. “Look at the business we are doing. The Dollar’s doing great.” Trump also pointed out that China and Japan have historically intervened to weaken their own currencies – thereby boosting trade competitiveness at the expense of trading partners. This is Mercantilism 101, as regular readers of this Daily would have been aware of for years.
On Monday we wrote about the Triffin Dilemma, and particularly the necessity of reserve currency issuers running trade deficits. The Triffin Dilemma also describes why the global reserve currency might be artificially strong as there is always a bid to hold it as a reserve asset and it is always demanded by other countries to conduct trade – even trade that does not involve the country issuing the reserve currency.
Along with the US Navy’s policing of global sea lanes at no cost to other countries (who benefit from absence of piracy, etc), the provision of the Dollar as a global medium of exchange is one of two public goods that Council of Economic Advisors Chair and now Fed Governor Stephen Miran (and author of the Mar-A-Lago accord) argues the US provides to other countries an substantial cost to itself. Under that framing, if the Dollar can be weakened without losing its status as the reserve currency, the Trump administration may consider that a welcome development.
Equity markets certainly considered it a welcome development. The S&P500 gained 0.41% yesterday and the NASDAQ was up 0.91%, but the Dow Jones finished well in the red. US equities are in the black for the year-to-date, and are performing similarly to European stocks, but the standout markets for the year so far appear to be in South America, where US intervention in Venezuela under the revamped Monroe Doctrine and a shift toward pro-US right wing government seems to be helping market sentiment. Indices in Peru, Chile, Colombia and Brazil are all well into double-digit growth YTD. Year-to-date growth in Mexican and Argentinian indices remains in the single-digits, but is still outperforming Asian, European and US markets.
Another excuse to sell Dollars was provided by the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence report, which showed overall confidence falling to the lowest levels since 2014 (i.e. lower than during the pandemic) and undershooting the estimate of every analyst on the Bloomberg survey. The present conditions index fell to a five year low and the expectations index fell 9.5 points to 65.1 – its lowest reading since the immediate aftermath of Liberation Day and well below levels typically consistent with impending recession!
The weak confidence reading provides an interesting backdrop for today’s FOMC rate decision. There is virtually no chance of a change in the Fed Funds rate today, but Fed-dated OIS has slithered a little closer to a cut being fully priced for June and two more cuts fully priced for the year. The Conference Board report’s emphasis of labor market conditions may be of particular interest as last week’s more consumer spending-oriented University of Michigan confidence index rose to even stronger levels while inflation expectations fell. Personal spending reported earlier in the week was also reasonably strong.
Of course, a weaker US Dollar is providing an endogenous easing in financial conditions that – taken together with core PCE running at 2.8% YoY and the apparent feud between the FOMC and the White House – may cause the Fed to resist further monetary easing. Jerome Powell seemingly made it clear in his sensational press conference following the Department of Justice’s issuance of grand jury subpoenas that he will not go gently into that good night.
There are others raging against the dying of the light, too. Mark Carney is the most Davos of Davos men and in his well-publicized speech pronouncing the death of the liberal world order he unpacked what he thought that would mean for global prosperity: “a world of fortresses will be poorer, more fragile and less sustainable... Allies will diversify to hedge against uncertainty... They’ll buy insurance... to rebuild sovereignty.” He then said that “...the cost of strategic autonomy can be shared. Collective investments in resilience are cheaper than everyone building their own.”
Herein lies the rub, Carney recognises that strategic autonomy is desirable, but then immediately makes the mistake of trying to achieve strategic autonomy through multilateral coordination. That is a re-run of liberal globalism, but on a smaller scale. True strategic autonomy would logically require greater autonomy, not continued integration. To suggest otherwise is to forget Lord Palmerston’s dictum “we have no permanent friends, only permanent interests.”
The European Union is similarly raging against the change in the world order. The EU just pushed back against the protectionism trend by announcing that it has concluded “the mother of all trade deals” with India, forming what Ursula von der Leyen calls a free trade zone of 2 billion people. This follows a similar deal with the South American Mercosur bloc after years of drawn out negotiations. Of course, the India deal isn’t actually for “free” trade, but for preferential trade. Tariffs will be eliminated or cut on 96% of EU exports to India, while the EU will do the same for 99% of India’s exports to the EU.
Europe will be granted improved market access for many agricultural products, but India’s dairy sector will see no reduction in protection. Similarly, European beef and poultry producers will remain shielded by protectionist measures and Europe’s strict regulatory regime may pose hurdles for Indian products that, in theory, are now granted greater access to the European market but may be waylaid by Europe’s powerful bureaucracy.
Alongside the trade deal, Europe and India have signed a new pact for security and defense partnership. India’s defense minister on Tuesday said that India’s defence industry can play a meaningful role in the EU’s ReArm Initiative and that the partnership will “become a force multiplier by integrating supply chains for building trusted defence ecosystems”.
This talk of integrating supply chains and trusted defense ecosystems sounds a lot like the arrangement the EU has (had?) with the United States. It also sounds a lot like Mark Carney’s prescription of integration on a somewhat-less-than-global scale. What it does not sound like is strategic autonomy – or supply chain sovereignty, and it is likely to cause some consternation in Paris, where Emmanuel Macron has been vocal about the need for Europe to prioritize indigenous industry in arms procurement.
Perhaps Europe still isn’t ready to admit that the light of the liberal international order really is dying.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 10:15The post All in On California’s Big Tax on Billionaires appeared first on CEPR.
US equity futures are rallying into record territory, led by Tech as overnight earnings (ASML, SK Hynix, STX, TXN) boost the group and help fuel the AI trade, perhaps pausing the broadening theme. As of 8:00am ET S&P futures are up 0.2% pointing to a sixth-straight advance that would mark the longest winning run in almost seven months and will push the S&P 500 cash index above the 7,000 mark for the first time when US markets open; Nasdaq futures surge 0.8, putting the index within touching distance of its October record, with Mag 7s and Semis bid in premarket trading, led by AMD (+2.3%), AVGO (+1.4%), and NVDA (+1.6%). Cyclicals are leading Defensives as Fins/Indu/Mats outperform and Staples lag. Bond yields are flat while the dollar advanced 0.2%, snapping a four-day slide that left the currency at its lowest level in nearly four years. Commodities are mixed: gold +1.7% and silver +0.4% to new record highs, as the Energy complex is under pressure (natgas -8%) with Ags maintaining a bid. Today’s macro focus is on the Fed unchanged announcement (full preview here) with the market looking to see if the Fed identifies growth or inflation as the biggest risk but with no moves expected and three Mag7 earnings releases (full preview here).
In premarket trading, semiconductor, memory and storage stocks rally after positive results from ASML, Seagate and Texas Instruments. ASML ADRs are up 5% after the company reported orders well beyond investor expectations, showing a surge in AI computing workloads has flowed through to higher demand for its chipmaking tools. Seagate (STX) is up 8% after the computer hardware and storage company’s second-quarter results beat expectations and it gave a positive outlook. Analysts note that results were boosted by strong gross and operating margins. Texas Instruments (TXN) gains 7% after the chipmaker gave an outlook that is seen as positive, signaling improved demand. Analysts highlight strength in the industrial and data center end markets. Magnificent Seven stocks are mostly higher (Nvidia +1.9%, Alphabet +0.4%, Amazon +0.3%, Meta -0.2%, Tesla +0.2%, Microsoft +0.2%, Apple -0.1%
In company news, Amazon is cutting about 16,000 roles across the company as part of ongoing organizational restructuring efforts, according to a statement.
Tech stocks are rallying around the world after blockbuster earnings from ASML and SK Hynix added fresh fuel to the artificial-intelligence trade while Microsoft, Meta and Tesla are due to report later (our preview here). Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.8%, putting the index within touching distance of its October record.
ASML rose more than 5% in Amsterdam on fourth-quarter bookings that far exceeded estimates. Asian equities got a boost as SoftBank Group Corp. flagged talks to invest $30 billion in OpenAI. Relentless demand for AI memory fueled a large earnings beat for SK Hynix. LVMH’s sluggish sales weighed on luxury names in Europe.
“The tech sector is likely to lift markets further, so the rally isn’t over yet,” said Claudia Panseri, chief investment officer for France at UBS Wealth Management. “The Fed this evening will be an important clarification for investors, who are at the moment expecting two cuts this year.”
Today’s tech gains might put a pause on the rotation away from the sector. Amid the S&P’s advance to a record, a version of the index stripped of market-cap bias has outperformed, with materials, health care and consumer sectors supplanting tech at the forefront.
The upbeat mood in equity markets comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, with investors expecting interest rates to remain on hold. With announcement of a nominee to succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell in May pending and Governor Christopher Waller among the contenders, a focal point of the rate decision will be whether he dissents in favor of a rate cut US President is seeking; dissents by Governors Stephen Miran and Michelle Bowman are also expected (full preview here).
With BlackRock executive Rick Rieder seen as the front-runner to become the next Fed chair, bond futures traders are increasing bets that he would favor a more accommodative US monetary policy. Rieder, the firm’s chief investment officer for global fixed income, argued in September for a larger half-point rate cut, rather than the quarter-point moves preferred by the Fed.
“The appointment of Rieder should be a market positive given his background,” wrote Mohit Kumar, chief strategist for Europe at Jefferies. “He is likely to be modestly more dovish than some of the other choices, though it is unlikely that he would rubber stamp Trump’s views.”
The dollar is rebounding against all major currencies following Tuesday’s sharp selloff, which extended as President Trump indicated he’s comfortable with the greenback’s recent decline.Donald Trump’s relaxed stance on the dollar is adding to speculation that the US currency may be entering a more prolonged period of weakness. Speaking to reporters in Iowa on Tuesday, Trump said the dollar’s slide was beneficial for US businesses, moving currency markets by appearing to endorse the greenback’s sharp decline.
“I don’t think it’s going to be that same kind of blanket dollar weakness that we saw last year, but I think there are certainly some pairs where that move does look quite appealing,” Lauren van Biljon, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, told Bloomberg TV.
Also due Wednesday are earnings from three of the Magnificent Seven heavyweights, Microsoft Corp., Tesla Inc. and Meta Platforms report after the close (our preview can be found here). Other companies reporting include Starbucks, Danaher, General Dynamics, GE Vernova and AT&T all out before the market open. IBM completes the notable companies to report after the close.
“So far, we’ve been pleasantly surprised by the earnings season in tech, with TSMC and ASML today,” said Karen Kharmandarian, chief investment officer of thematic equities at Mirova in Paris. “We’re still expecting capex to continue to grow substantially among the hyperscalers such as Google, Meta or Amazon, given the momentum in the AI space.”
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is down by 0.5% as blowout results from Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML are more than offset by declines for health care companies and for the luxury goods sector, the latter on disappointing numbers from LVMH. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
Earlier in the session, Asian equities are set for another record high, supported by a continued rally in technology shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 1.2%, with TSMC, SK Hynix and Tencent the biggest boosts to the gauge. Hong Kong led gains in the region amid inflows spurred by dollar weakness. Shares also rose in South Korea, helping the country’s market cap to overtake that of Germany. Meanwhile, Indonesian stocks tumbled after MSCI raised concerns about their investability and warned of a potential downgrade to frontier-market status.
“The shortage in supply in memory chips will continue to be a key catalyst for Asian memory makers,” said Ken Wong, an Asian equity portfolio specialist at Eastspring Investments Hong Kong. “We probably won’t see equilibrium on supply versus demand till early next year.”
In FX, the greenback is rebounding after hitting 2022 lows. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up by 0.3%, though mixed against G-10 peers.
In rates, treasuries were little changed ahead of the Fed rate decision with marginal long-end underperformance extending Tuesday’s late steepening move as the US dollar weakened further. US session features Federal Reserve rate decision, with swaps market priced for no change in the 3.5%-3.75% target range for federal funds. US front-end to belly yields are slightly richer on the day with longer maturities little changed, steepening 5s30s curve by about 1bp to 104bp, highest this week; 10-year, little changed near 4.24%, slightly lags bunds and gilts in the sector. Short-end bonds in Europe rallying as traders add to ECB rate cut bets.
In commodities, the blistering rally in precious metals continued as gold briefly topped $5,300 an ounce. Silver rose as much as 3.6% before pairing the advance. Oil prices are choppy, Brent now falling and hovering a little above $67/barrel.
Today's US economic calendar is blank; FOMC announcement is at 2pm New York time, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm. Mag 7 earnings begin today with Microsoft, Meta and Tesla reporting after the close.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
Trade/Tariffs
Central Banks
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed with an early positive bias seen following the mostly constructive handover from Wall Street, although some cautiousness began to seep through ahead of looming key risk events. ASX 200 was subdued with the index dragged lower by weakness in tech and consumer stocks, while the predominantly firmer-than-expected inflation data from Australia supports the case for a hike at next week's RBA meeting. Nikkei 225 underperformed from the open, following the recent currency strength spurred by intervention speculation and US President Trump's FX-related rhetoric. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were in the green with energy and telecom stocks among the index leaders in Hong Kong, while the mainland was kept afloat after developer China Vanke won creditor approval to extend another two CNY bonds and with a report noting that China approved the first batch of NVIDIA's H200 AI chips for import involving several hundred thousand H200 AI chips.
Top Asian News
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.4%) are generally trading with modest losses, aside from the AEX, which has been boosted by post-earnings strength in heavyweight ASML (+4.8%). The company beat across its headline metrics, provided a rosy outlook, and announced a EUR 12bln share buyback. European sectors hold a negative bias. Tech leads (boosted by ASML), whilst Consumer Products has been pressured by losses in LVMH (-7.1%) after its results disappointed.
Top European News
FX
Fixed Income
Commodities
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Geopolitics: Middle East
Geopolitics: Other
US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Risk assets put in another decent performance yesterday, with solid earnings pushing the S&P 500 (+0.41%) to another record, and futures on the index (+0.29%) are pointing to more gains this morning. But even as US equities reached new heights, the dollar index (-0.85%) fell to its weakest in nearly four years, having now posted its biggest 4-day decline since the Liberation Day turmoil last April. So it was a pretty mixed day for US assets. Meanwhile, geopolitical risk continued to dominate the headlines, with Brent crude oil reaching its highest since September after Trump said the US had a “big armada” heading to the Middle East, which together with the dollar slump pushed gold prices (+3.42%) to another record close of $5,180/oz. And there’ll be no let-up in the headlines today, as we’ve got the Fed’s latest decision tonight, along with earnings from three of the Mag 7 after the US close.
Ahead of the Fed’s decision, the main story was that ongoing dollar weakness, which saw the Dollar index (-0.85%) close at its lowest level since February 2022. Several factors contributed, but importantly, Trump himself was asked about his thoughts on the decline, and said “No, I think it’s great”, suggesting he wanted the currency to “just seek its own level, which is the fair thing to do”. That followed weak US data earlier in the session, as the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence print hit its lowest since 2014, at 84.5 (vs. 91.0 expected). And on top of that, fears around a government shutdown this week continued to swirl, with Polymarket giving it a 76% chance of happening this Saturday. So all those factors contributed to pre-existing concerns pushing the dollar lower, including questions around the Fed’s independence, tariff policy uncertainty and the fiscal trajectory.
Of course, with the dollar moving lower, that meant several other currencies reached multi-year highs against it, with the Euro closing above $1.20 yesterday for the first time since June 2021. But that’s also raised questions about whether the ECB would need to think about another interest rate cut given the downward pressure that would cause on inflation. Indeed, Austrian central bank governor Kocher said in an FT interview out this morning that continued euro appreciation could mean the ECB has to react. So the euro’s slipped back a bit this morning after those comments, and is currently trading at $1.1987.
As all that was happening, investor concern continued to mount about geopolitical risk, with ongoing speculation about a potential US strike on Iran. That followed comments from Trump, in an interview recorded on Monday, saying that the US had a “big armada” heading to the Middle East, although he said “I’d rather not see anything happen”. So that helped push up oil prices, with Brent crude (+3.02%) reaching its highest level since September, at $67.57/bbl, whilst WTI (+2.90%) reached its highest since October, at $62.39/bbl. And there was plenty happening elsewhere for commodities, as precious metals saw another round of records yesterday thanks to heightened geopolitical risk and a broader move away from the US Dollar. So gold prices (+3.42%) posted their best day since April to a new record of $5,180/oz, whilst silver (+8.00%) also hit a record of $112.08/oz. Moreover, those gains have continued overnight, with gold up another +1.55% to $5,261/oz, whilst silver has risen +3.19% to $115.66/oz.
Looking forward, the main highlight on today’s calendar is the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, where it’s widely expected they’ll keep rates on hold after 3 consecutive rate cuts. So with the decision unlikely to surprise, the focus will be on the press conference, where several non-economic issues are likely to come up, including the recent DoJ subpoena, the Lisa Cook case at the Supreme Court, the next Chair, and whether Powell will remain as a Governor after his term as chair concludes in May. Our US economists have more in their preview (link here), but they expect Powell to reiterate the points made in his statement on the subpoena earlier this month, and not comment on the next Chair. Then in terms of policy, they expect the Fed to present a more upbeat view about the economy, and think the statement will signal that they’re well-positioned to respond to risks on either side of their dual mandate.
As we head into the Fed’s decision, that pressure on the dollar also spread to long-end Treasuries yesterday, with 10yr yields (+3.2bps) moving a couple of basis points higher after Trump’s comments to end the day at 4.24%, while 30yr yields rose +5.7bps on the day to 4.86%. By contrast, 2yr yields (-1.7bps) rallied after the weaker consumer confidence data, as investors moved to price in more Fed rate cuts this year. So by the close, 47bps of cuts were priced in by the December meeting, up +1.0bps on the day.
Despite that backdrop of dollar weakness and heightened geopolitical tensions, it was actually a very strong day for US equities, with the S&P 500 (+0.41%) posting a 5th consecutive advance that took the index to a new record. Tech stocks led the way, with the Magnificent 7 (+0.89%) closing just over 1% beneath its own record from late-October, ahead of earnings from Meta, Microsoft and Tesla after tonight’s close. Nevertheless, the gains were fairly narrow, with more than half of the S&P 500 constituents lower on the day.
Meanwhile in Europe, equities also put in a strong performance, with the STOXX 600 (+0.58%) closing just 0.2% beneath its own record high from a couple of weeks ago, whilst Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.70%) hit a new record of its own. However, European bonds only saw modest moves, with yields on 10yr bunds (+0.8bps), OATs (+0.1bps) and BTPs (+0.3bps) all posting small increases. Gilts were the main exception to that, with the 10yr yield (+2.8bps) rising to 4.52%.
Overnight in Asia, there’s been a fairly mixed performance. Some indices have put in a very strong performance, with the KOSPI (+1.64%) currently on track for another record high, whilst the Hang Seng (+2.31%) is currently on course for its highest closing level since 2021. Moreover, the CSI 300 (+0.35%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.36%) are also higher. However, Japan’s Nikkei (-0.46%) and the TOPIX (-0.85%) have lost ground, which comes as the yen continued to strengthen yesterday, closing at 152.21 per US dollar, its strongest since late October. But JGBs have put in a decent performance overnight after a 40yr auction saw strong demand. So the 10yr JGB yield is down -4.7bps this morning to 2.23%.
Looking at the day ahead, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, along with Chair Powell’s press conference. Otherwise, the Bank of Canada will announce their latest decision, and we’ll hear from the ECB’s Elderson and Schnabel. Finally, today’s earnings releases include Meta, Microsoft, Tesla, IBM, AT&T and Starbucks.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 08:44Deutsche Bank shares are down over 3% in early trading following reports that German police raided their offices in Frankfurt and in Berlin on Wednesday morning, as part of an investigation into money laundering.
“We confirm that the Frankfurt public prosecutor’s office is on site in our offices,” a Deutsche Bank spokesperson said in an emailed statement.
“The bank is cooperating fully with the public prosecutor’s office. We cannot comment further.”
As Bloomberg reports, the raid is a setback for Deutsche Bank Chief Executive Officer Christian Sewing who is widely credited with turning around the lender and drawing a line under a long period of scandals and losses after taking over almost eight years ago.
The bank has repeatedly been raided in the past.
In 2022, German law enforcement searched Deutsche Bank’s Frankfurt offices as part of an earlier money laundering probe.
In May that year, the German bank and its DWS subsidiary were investigated regarding allegations of greenwashing at the latter.
In 2018, Deutsche Bank was inspected by 170 law enforcement officials as part of a tax evasion probe into two employees.
The investigation — which stemmed from the 2016 so-called “Panama papers” leak — was later dropped, with the lender fined over compliance shortcomings.
Deutsche Bank “has maintained business relationships in the past with foreign companies which, in turn, are suspected of having been used for money laundering purposes as part of further investigations,” the prosecutor’s office said in the statement.
It’s conducting a raid at Deutsche Bank premises in Frankfurt and Berlin to investigate the matter, it said.
The investigation comes a day before the German lender is due to publish its fourth quarter and year-end earnings report.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 08:25Update (0939ET): Aaaaaand, shares in ASML are now red to the tune of -1% despite the good news.
* * *
Shares in ASML, Europe's most valuable company which builds the 'printing presses' for modern microchips, exploded higher in Wednesday trade after Q4 orders blew past analyst estimates. The Dutch semiconductor company also announced job cuts to boost efficiency, and a share buyback of up to €12B by the end of 2028.
Fueled by demand for AI chips, bookings in the fourth quarter hit a record €13.2 billion ($15.8 billion), the Veldhoven, Netherlands-based company said in a Wednesday announcement reported by Bloomberg. Analysts estimated an average of €6.85 billion, according to the report. Sales were €9.72bln (exp. €6.95bln).
"In the last months, many of our customers have shared a notably more positive assessment of the medium-term market situation, primarily based on more robust expectations of the sustainability of AI-related demand. This is reflected in a marked step-up in their medium-term capacity plans and in our record order intake," the company said.
The company will cut around 1,700 jobs (around 4% of its workforce) - mostly in the Netherlands and some in the US, with the goal of streamlining the organization.
"The last three months have brought a lot of clarity" about what AI means for the semiconductor industry, CEO Christophe Fouquet told Bloomberg TV. "Our customers start to believe that this AI demand is sustainable, and therefore they are moving to building capacity, and they are moving very aggressively."
Shares in the company were up 6% to €1,291.20 in Amsterdam, pushing the stock beyond to YTD gains of 40%. Japanese suppliers also felt the love, with Lasertec Corp., Tokyo Electron Ltd. and Screen Holdings Co., benefiting from the success.
Overbought?
According to Bloomberg:
A key challenge for the sector is the stocks are already stretched from a technical perspective, limiting near-term upside. The 14-day Relative Strength Index for ASML, VAT, ASM International and BE Semiconductor were all above 70 at Tuesday’s close. And the stocks are all up by nearly 30% or more year-to-date.
At one point there will be debate about how much of the AI optimism is already reflected in price. Using ASML as an example, based on the most optimistic analyst earnings forecast for 2027, the stock is still trading at 27-times forward two-year earnings, above the 10-year average of 25 times.
Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero is advising investors to wait for a better entry point on the stock, as a lot of bullishness for this period and next year have already been priced in - making 'upside market movements more challenging.'
ASML makes lithography machines - tools used to etch microscopic circuit patterns onto silicon wafers during chip manufacturing. Without them, companies like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung couldn't make the most advanced chips used in AI accelerators, smartphones, GPUs, and defense systems.
Their crown jewel is Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, which uses a 13.5nm wavelength light that allows them to print features only a few atoms wide, and enables the most advanced process nodes (7nm, 5nm, 3nm and beyond).
EUV machines require plasma-generated EUV light (created by blasting molten tin with lasers), mirrors polished to near-perfect atomic smoothness, vacuum systems (EUV is absorbed by air), and nanometer-precision alignment across thousands of components.
Each machine costs $150 - $200 million and weighs 180 tons.
As companies began pouring hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers, chipmakers have been driven to increase capacity - stoking demand for ASML's products.
Over half of last quarter's bookings were for EUV machines, totaling €7.4 billion, according to the company.
In 2025, net sales were €32.7 billion, while revenue is seen at between €34 billion and €39 billion, blowing past previous guidance.
"ASML has knocked it out of the park when it comes to order numbers," Ben Barringer, head of technology research at Quilter Cheviot, told Bloomberg. "Given the strength of the order book, we fully expect it to raise guidance throughout the year."
China was ASML's largest market in the fourth quarter - accounting for 36% of net system sales. That said, the Chinese market is expected to drop to around 20% of revs going forward, CFO Roger Dassen said in a call with reporters.
That said, China is restricted from buying the company's most advanced EUV machines, so ASML is selling them older-generation DUV (deep ultraviolet) systems that are roughly 8 generations behind the cutting edge, and are suitable for mature-node chips, not bleeding-edge AI chips (think cars, appliances, industrial equipment, etc.).
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 08:15Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
President Donald Trump on Tuesday rebuffed calls for Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to step down from her position in the midst of criticism of immigration officials in the wake of a protester-involved shooting in Minneapolis over the past weekend.
President Donald Trump departs for Florida from the White House on Jan. 16, 2026. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times
Some Democratic lawmakers called for Noem’s ouster after an agent shot and killed a protester, Alex Pretti, during an altercation in Minneapolis on Saturday. Noem had described Pretti as someone engaging in domestic terrorism, although a top Justice Department official said that administration officials don’t believe Pretti’s actions reach the legal standard for terrorism.
Trump was asked about Noem’s job status while he was speaking with reporters outside the White House on Tuesday. He told reporters he believes Noem is doing a “very good job” and a “great job” as the head of the sprawling federal department, and he cited her work in shutting down the United States–Mexico border.
“Is Kristi Noem going to step down?” a reporter asked him. Trump directly responded by saying no.
Speaking about the border, Trump said that people “forget” that the prior administration had allowed “millions of people” to come through. Border authorities now allow “no one” to come through, and people are only coming into the United States legally, he said.
The Biden administration and the Democratic Party willfully “had allowed tens of millions of people” to enter the United States, with many being murderers, drug dealers, addicts, and people who were removed from mental institutions, Trump said.
On Monday, Trump said that private conversations with both Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey were productive, while the two Democratic leaders offered similarly positive comments.
Walz’s office said Trump had agreed to direct the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to ensure state authorities could conduct their own investigation into the Pretti shooting, while Frey said in a post on X that his understanding was that some federal agents would begin leaving the city on Tuesday.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said his party would vote against funding legislation that includes money for DHS, which oversees Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the federal immigration agency. Congress faces a Jan. 30 deadline to fund the government or risk a partial government shutdown.
Schumer, in a Sunday statement, said Republicans should “join Democrats in overhauling” both ICE and U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
“Senate Democrats will not allow the current DHS funding bill to move forward,” he also said.
Democratic lawmakers in the House have called for Noem’s removal after the Pretti shooting, with several issuing a joint statement on Monday calling for immigration agents in Minneapolis to be stood down.
“This tragic killing comes on the heels of the fatal shooting of Renee Good earlier this month, and multiple other documented incidents of civil-rights abuses and excessive enforcement by ICE and CBP in Minnesota—demonstrating a pattern of misconduct that has fractured trust and terrified communities,” they said in the statement.
The Trump administration has vowed to carry out mass deportations of illegal immigrants and has said that many of the people being arrested and removed from the country are criminals with lengthy rap sheets, including convictions for child abuse, sexual assault, and other crimes.
Reuters contributed to this report.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 08:05Chinese state-linked hackers reportedly accessed mobile phones “at the heart of Downing Street” as part of a long-running cyber-espionage campaign targeting telecom networks worldwide, according to Fox News.
U.S. intelligence agencies believe the breaches began as early as 2021, though they were publicly revealed in 2024 after American officials warned allies about widespread intrusions into global telecommunications systems.
The campaign targeted several countries, including the U.S. and members of the Five Eyes alliance. Investigators say the attackers may have gained access to the data of millions, with the ability to monitor calls, read messages, and track locations.
Former U.S. national security adviser Anne Neuberger said the “Chinese gained access to networks and essentially had broad and full access,” allowing them to “geolocate millions of individuals” and “record phone calls at will.”
Fox News reports that a source told The Telegraph that the breach reached “right into the heart of Downing Street,” raising concerns that senior U.K. officials may have been affected.
In response, U.S. agencies urged telecom companies in 2024 to strengthen security. A joint advisory in August 2025 warned that Chinese state-sponsored groups, including one known as “Salt Typhoon,” were continuing to target networks globally.
The Telegraph also reported “many” hacking incidents affecting British government phones, particularly during former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s term from 2022 to 2024.
Former Israeli intelligence chief Yuval Wollman said Salt Typhoon is “one of the most prominent names” in cyber-espionage, with operations extending across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
China has previously denied the allegations, calling them “baseless” and “lacking evidence.” U.K. officials have not yet commented on the latest reports.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 04:15Authored by David Thunder via 'The Freedom Blog;,
The UK government has pledged to introduce a digital ID system for all UK citizens and legal residents by the end of the current Parliament (so no later than 2029). The integration of digital ID into government services, though already under way, has hitherto been largely voluntary. However, is is becoming steadily less optional, as the government has said it will now be required as a precondition for work in the U.K, and a version of it (GOV.UK One Login) is already being imposed unilaterally upon company directors throughout the U.K.
Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones has suggested in a recent interview (19/11) that digital ID is completely optional and will simply make government services more accessible and convenient. But this is a rather disingenuous sales pitch. On the one hand, Starmer himself insists that digital ID will be required as a precondition to work legally in the U.K; on the other hand, like any new technology, there will be a transition period, but voluntariness is unlikely to last forever.
Evidently, the government will not immediately require everyone to use a digital ID in their interactions with government agencies. But as digital ID becomes more normalised, it will likely become as compulsory as holding a passport for international travel. Can you really imagine a modern government allowing “hold-outs” to stay in the physical world while digital ID systems become the norm?
Providing citizens with an easy way to seamlessly verify their identity when they access government services may seem like the “efficient” thing to do. However, this apparent efficiency comes at a high price, exposing citizens to significant risks of government over-reach, surveillance, and system failures.
The old “clunky” system, in which there was bureaucratic redundancy and replication and in which physical ID cards had to be shown to access discrete government services made it more difficult for the government to comprehensively monitor and control a citizen’s choices in real time, and meant a single point of failure in the system did not necessarily compromise all of a citizen’s important data, or disable citizens’ ability to access public services.
The problem with universal digital ID overseen by the State is not that a dystopian State will be born overnight, or that all our data will be stolen the day after the scheme is initiated, but that the architecture of authoritarian control will be set in motion, and the potential repercussions of serious data breaches and system failures will be significantly enlarged.
According to a House of Commons Research Briefing, government statements suggest that “there will be no centralised digital ID database.” But as the same briefing points out, civil rights group Big Brother Watch stresses that “even decentralised systems can behave like centralised ones if identifiers link data across platforms.”
The creation of a digital ID system for accessing a wide range of public services clearly poses grave risks of abuse, given the evident conflict of interest of governments who both oversee the architecture of a digital ID system, and have incentives to extend their control over citizens’ lives.
Unlike a traditional physical ID system, in which there is a local gatekeeper who opens the gate to a service based on limited information - typically, a service-specific database - a digital ID system could, in some future iteration, permit a remote gatekeeper to use an AI algorithm to analyze a citizen’s data and history (unlocked by their ID) and ration their access to a service to induce compliance with the government’s preferred policies. This scenario becomes even more plausible given the momentum behind centralised digital currencies, which could offer governments direct leverage over citizens’ income and spending choices.
Do such scenarios seem far-fetched? If the digital ID system is controlled, overseen and effectively programmed by centralised governments and their agencies, and is already intended as an obligatory verification procedure for employment rights, there is certainly no technological impediment to governments extending the logic of digital surveillance and control, through “mission creep,” to other sectors of social life.
For example, just as a government uses digital ID to track someone’s employment history and residency status as a way of corroborating their right to work, surely it could also use digital ID to track someone’s health history or vaccination status as a criterion for the right to, say, attend public venues, use public transport or enter the country?
And if the same digital ID is associated with a “digital wallet” tied to CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency), then what is preventing a government from capping a citizen’s spending on international travel once they reach their “carbon allowance”? What if a government-regulated digital ID is required for citizens to post content on social media? This scenario, which is far from fanciful, would give governments leverage to restrict “non-compliant” citizens’ social media activities.
So much for the technological feasibility of leveraging a digital ID system to exert ever greater control over citizens’ lives. Now, do we think government officials are so profoundly committed to civil liberties that they would balk at the thoughts of leveraging digital ID programmes to engage in far-reaching forms of surveillance and control over citizens’ lives? We hardly have grounds for optimism, given Western governments’ abysmal track record during the Covid era, when they were prepared to lock down citizens in their homes based on scientifically flimsy theories of disease control, and “make life hell” (to use a loose translation of President Macron’s notorious expression) for citizens who opted out of an experimental vaccine.
Besides the substantial risks of government surveillance and over-reach, there is a very real risk that citizens’ data may be more exposed to cyber-attacks in a more ambitious, integrated and data-rich digital ID system, and that the very ability to access public services may be as fragile as the weakest point in the system.
On the one hand, government-overseen databases, no less than privately managed databases, have notoriously been compromised, time and again, by serious data breaches and leaks over the years. An increasingly complex and wide-ranging system, linking an ever wider pool of citizens’ data, will be sure to attract the interest of international hackers. On the other hand, if and when these systems experience major glitches, such as the recent outage of internet security company Cloudfare that took ChatGPT and X offline, public services may experience major disruptions, if not paralysis. We want resilience, not just efficiency.
There are more and less safe and efficient ways to harness the technology of digital ID. But the development of digital ID systems should be managed by a complex web of service providers who can develop competitive solutions to the technical problems they pose, under a broad legal framework, and reliance on such systems should be maximally voluntary.
We are living through a major crisis of trust in public institutions. Governments have shown themselves to be unworthy stewards of the ship of State, and citizens are right to distrust their intentions and competence. There could hardly be a worse time - and I’m not saying there ever was a good time - to entrust politicians with an ambitious digital ID programme plagued with risks of government surveillance, technocratic over-reach, system failures, and data breaches.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 03:30EU member states on Monday finally signed off on a legally binding ban on Russian gas imports, locking in a hard deadline to sever the bloc's remaining dependence on Russian energy flows by late 2027.
The move turns Brussels' long-running pledge to cut Moscow energy loose into enforceable law, nearly four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, or what Putin calls the Special Military Operation, which has still not been legally declared by Russia to be an official state of war.
Eric de Mildt/Greenpeace
Under the deal, the EU will shut the door on all Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports by the end of 2026, followed by a complete ban on pipeline gas by September 30, 2027.
A limited escape hatch was built in for those countries struggling to replace Russian supply and fill storage ahead of winter. These can push the pipeline cutoff to November 1, 2027.
Before 2022, Russia accounted for more than 40% of the EU's gas supply - a figure which has fallen to roughly 13% by 2025. But there's still a sizeable gap between Brussels' political messaging and the bloc's actual energy behavior. As Reuters reports:
Last month, the five biggest EU importers spent 1.4 billion euros ($1.66 billion) on Russian energy, mostly on gas and LNG, data from the non-profit Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air showed. Hungary was the biggest buyer, before France and Belgium.
Here's how the president of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, announced the ban Tuesday: "We have just signed the ban on Russian gas into law. Europe is securing control of our energy supply and strengthening our autonomy."
There's only one obvious problem in all this from a supposed European 'energy independence' perspective, summarized well in the following:
They’ve just locked themselves into total dependency on the US, the country they claim to want to become “independent” from. Utter clowns. https://t.co/yO5UdBMTAY
— Thomas Fazi (@battleforeurope) January 27, 2026
Another commenter, a European libertarian, reacted as follows:
What an idiot stooge, willing to do anything for power. This is the tragedy of Europe: with such a "leadership" we assure our continued submissiveness to the US.
And journalist Mark Ames roundly mocks these new 'boasts' EU energy freedom in the following remarks, and invoking the Greenland crisis, on the below clip:
Danish PM bragging how they swapped out their dependence on cheap Russian gas, which posed a theoretical threat, for dependence on expensive US gas, a direct existential threat to Denmark. Must be that high European IQ that race science weirdos rave about.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen:
— Clash Report (@clashreport) January 26, 2026
I think, or I hope, that all Europeans can now see that it was a huge mistake to be dependent on Russian fossil fuels. We should never have been.
And now we have to make sure that we will have no dependencies on other countries outside… pic.twitter.com/J9o6c0HXYe
"We’ve replaced one massive dependency with another one," Henning Gloystein, a managing director for energy at Eurasia Group, told The NY Times. "That looked fine three years ago, but now it doesn't."
That same Tuesday NYT report points out that soon after the Feb.2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, "The United States came to the rescue. Tankers loaded at U.S. terminals shipped large volumes of liquefied natural gas to European ports in the Netherlands, France and Belgium, among other destinations, helping to replace the Russian fuel and calming markets."
And the report follows with this epic and ironic line, highlighting the elephant in the room: "Not long ago, those gas flows looked heroic. Now, they are raising eyebrows. Since beginning his second term, President Trump has sought to use trade as leverage in disputes with other countries, including his recent push to take over Greenland."
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 02:45In an extraordinary case that could decide the future of press rights in Europe, Berlin-based German-Turkish journalist Hüseyin Doğru is currently under European Union sanctions for his reporting, which left him completely unable to access his bank account for months.
Under orders from the EU, his assets were frozen, and these sanctions were dispensed with no trial or appeal. Currently, Doğru says he is not even allowed to leave Germany.
As Berliner Zeitung reports, Doğru completely exhausted all financial means, telling the paper that his bank has completely blocked access to his previously approved minimum subsistence allowance of €506. He stated that he can no longer support his family or even buy food for his two newborn children.
“Not only I, but also my wife and my three children are effectively being sanctioned,” Doğru, a left-wing journalist, said in the interview.
“The sanctions themselves stipulate that I am entitled to access to essential funds. The fact that my bank is nevertheless blocking these funds violates applicable law in my view,” he told the Berlin newspaper.
Since then, he has won some reprieve and regained access to his account on Jan. 22 through the actions of his lawyer, but a legal battle over the sanctions is continuing.
UPDATE: Comdirect finally (and unwillingly) restored my account access—only after public and media pressure. Thank you ALL for supporting me. Next goal: lift the sanctions, not just against me, but against all punished for expressing their opinions. https://t.co/P6rdkNhCC8
— Hüseyin Dogru (@hussedogru) January 22, 2026
There are now fears that the extraordinary case may be a sign of where the future is headed, where an authoritarian EU can censor and financially ruin dissidents and journalists with no oversight or judicial review. Notably, similar sanctions could also be deployed against others, such as Roger Köppel, the Swiss editor-in-chief of the weekly Die Weltwoche.
Doğru has been on an EU sanctions list since May 2025, with Brussels arguing that his pro-Palestinian journalistic work incites “ethnic, political, and religious discord” and therefore, he allegedly supports “destabilizing activities by Russia.” Notably, he filmed a number of the occupations of Berlin universities by pro-Palestinian activists.
The basis for the sanctions was his alleged connections to Russia, but the Berliner Zeitung indicates that so far, no proof has been presented to confirm this accusation, and more importantly, there was no trial or evidence provided to support this accusation.
“Brussels justifies the measures by saying that he is using his pro-Palestinian journalistic work to stir up ‘ethnic, political and religious discord’ and thus allegedly ‘destabilizing activities that support Russia.’ The EU has not yet publicly provided any concrete evidence of a connection to Moscow,” wrote the paper.
Germany couldn’t do it, but the EU couldIn a recent interview on Youtube, which included the Greek progressive Yanis Varoufakis, Doğru provided further details about his case, including why these sanctions came from the EU and not Germany.
“And this now all applied to me the first time in the form of a sanction, but the German government did not do it directly with me. They, as Yanis said, pass it over to the European Union because in Germany, they could not do that in a legal way, because the backlash is still there in this bourgeois democracy. The little backlash, if it comes to their own citizens, which I am, even though they don’t maybe accept me as such. But if a journalist is in court here, he has a lot of rights.
But if you go through the European Union, the European Commission, there is no judge, there is no hearing, there is no evidence. It’s an extrajudicial act of… and the EU says sanctions are not punishment, they are punitive to change your behavior for the benefit of the European Union, which is not a punishment. So, it’s an extrajudicial execution of a journalist.
But now coming back to the beginning, why is that happening? They’re all laid that out and they’re testing it with me for the first time. And what makes the whole situation unique is that the first time, if they can get away with it, this is going to soon happen to you guys as well, or even those who attacked us.”
The sanctions had a devastating effect on Doğru and illustrate how they could be used to silence nearly any journalist, whether on the left or the right.
“I’m not allowed to pay my lawyer. I’m not allowed to buy water. I’m not allowed to provide my child with food. I’m not allowed to work. I’m not allowed to buy medicine. Every single monetary transaction with me is forbidden. Technically, you’re not even allowed to give me a basket of food because I could turn that technically into money. And this is forbidden.
And if I violate or you do, I don’t know about you, but if I were to violate one of these things, I could face like five years of prison time by avoiding sanctions technically, but they went further. I’m sanctioned, I’m on that list, but they also technically sanctioned my wife and our unborn twins because they froze older accounts. She is not allowed to receive her salary right now.
So in this moment, we technically have no money that we can access to go and buy something. There is also the problem because a lot of activists, journalists, colleagues, politicians and family members even said, ‘Should we send you money?’ We said, ‘Don’t do that. Don’t do that because you would be maybe categorized as avoiding sanctions.’ And this is the problem here. Sanction, as the European Union describes on their website, is a tool that is aligned with humanitarian law, which is not deemed to punish, but rather to change your behavior.”
You literally sanctioned me for exercising my freedom of speech. https://t.co/tgP9kMiJIu pic.twitter.com/56Cb7vq0Jz
— Hüseyin Dogru (@hussedogru) December 24, 2025
Notably, this is tool is being used on a journalist in Europe during a time when EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is claiming that Europe is a place where freedom of speech is valued, a point that Doğru is more than willing to point out.
The German-Turkish journalist stated during the interview that he does not understand what “behavior” is supposed to be changed by the sanctions, saying:
The Russian accusations“To change behavior, what kind of behavior do they want to change? My behavior to use my rights as a citizen of Europe or of the world to express my opinion on certain events. Also, the right to survive because all my existential grounds are taken away from me. To be a bit more specific, maybe that sounds a bit crude, but just to make the point that I don’t want anyone to misunderstand me, someone in a prison currently technically has more rights than I have, because they can, in custody, buy something which I can’t even.”
For those on the right who dismiss this case because of Doğru’s pro-Palestinian coverage or maybe even dislike him because he’s a Muslim, it is clear that this is only a test case. Many of his views or the views of Varoufakis, such as their claims about European colonialism, can be contested, but that is besides the point. Conservatives, libertarians, and the right will all be targeted in the future, not only with this type of method, but other similar methods that are already being deployed.
Doğru indicates that the argument, as far as he can see, is not that he has any direct connection to Russia, but that the EU can interpret his reporting as beneficial to Russia, and therefore, it can legally use these extrajudicial sanctions. Notably, Doğru said he was openly criticizing Russia and its war in Ukraine long before these sanctions hit him.
“And I think this is unique as Yanis said at the beginning with my case, because for the first time ever, Europe sanctioned a journalist in the context of the Russian sanction packages and laws and regulations, who was criticizing Russian policies publicly, which I did, who was criticizing the war in Ukraine,” he said.
He added that he was targeted for “covering protests across Europe, which meant for the European Union that covering that, covering protests, covering violent protests, means for the European Union that only Russia can benefit from that because I’m creating social discord. I’m focusing on that, apparently, and Russia can benefit from that. Therefore, that makes me a Russian news outlet or pro-Russian journalist, which is, I can’t see you’re rolling your eyes. It’s exactly what happened to me as well.”
It is important to note that a report from German newspaper Tagesspiegel indicated that Doğru previously worked for Russian-linked news source Redfish Media. After the war in Ukraine broke out, Redfish closed down, and Doğru began a new outlet called Red, which included a number of former Redfish employees. Doğru indicated that the Red outlet, founded in Istanbul, was independent and received support from private individuals and organizations, without providing further details.
Even if this outlet, however, is connected to Russia in some manner, and so far no evidence has been presented in that direction, the EU’s ability to implement such powerful sanctions against an individual without due process should raise concerns for journalists everywhere.
Concerns expressed from many cornersIt is not just the far left complaining about these sanctions against Doğru, but a broad political spectrum is taking issue with how they have been implemented. Here is what Berliner Zeitung wrote:
The Doğru case has been causing a stir for months. Critics see the sanctioning of a German journalist as a dangerous precedent for press freedom in the European Union. The criticism is particularly harsh in a legal opinion prepared by former European Court of Justice judge Ninon Colneric and international law professor Alina Miron. The opinion was presented to the European Parliament in the fall and addresses the new EU sanctions regime against so-called disinformation.
The authors conclude that the sanctions constitute a profound infringement of fundamental rights. The measures act like a “civil death” (“mort civile”): assets are frozen, access to banking services is effectively blocked, and the economic capacity of those affected is almost completely eliminated. This not only affects the sanctioned individuals themselves but also has a direct impact on their professional and private lives.
The report states that it is particularly problematic that sanctions are imposed without prior judicial review. Denying the right to a hearing before being placed on a sanctions list is disproportionate and violates European fundamental rights. The damage to freedom of expression and of the press is completely out of proportion to the stated goal of combating disinformation.
In short, the EU took a sledgehammer to this case, and with the other issues such as Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and efforts to fight so-called “disinformation,” it is clear that these tools and terms can be weaponied within the EU establishment against any reporting they do not agree with or find to be a threat.
The history of these sanctionsWhile the main points of this text has been addressed, some readers may be interested in how these sanctions were implemented and their background.
Doğru addresses the history of these sanctions in his interview with Varoufakis.
“How did we come to this point? It’s going to be a little bit technical, like using technical words, but I think for the audience it is very, very important because that did not just happen from nowhere. It technically started with the annexation of Crimea by Russia. So that’s when the European Union created the European External Action Service (EEAS), which was tasked to combat disinformation and Russian influence in Europe.
After around 2018, that body was extended with more rights, which created a kind of like an action plan against this information. And then we first heard like these words, and I think everyone knows that now. It’s like undermining European democracy, the European values, the European project and about strategic threats, and at some point about disinformation.”
He goes on to address terms like “disinformation” and “hybrid threat,” saying these terms were first coined around 2020. He said that disinformation, in particular, does not have to be a lie, but simply information that is categorized as a threat by the EU.
“That means technically information is now categorized by the EU as a threat, as long as it does not serve their benefit. In that case, as long as a journalist does not report on behalf of or for the benefit of the European Union. This might be a protest, that might be, if I criticize in the context of the Ukraine war, Russia and Europe, for example. So it’s kind of militarizing and criminalizing information, and by fighting disinformation and shutting down information, the EU started to use this (term),” he said.
He then delves further into the history of these sanctions and how the Digital Service Act (DSA) raised the stakes because it allows the EU to punish and sanction individuals, including journalists.
So what happened after that is also like the EAS created or introduced the FIMA, I think it is called, the foreign information manipulation and interference. This was very, very unique and very, very important because that gives the EEAS the right to punish, sanction everyone who is also, how should I work that now, involved in, this is very important: non-illegal suspicious behavior. So they say you have maybe a suspicious behavior and it is no illegal but we judge that as a threat to us, and we can’t punish you. That’s what the FIMA says. So this is very important. The only evidence is look at EEAS, look at FIMA. That’s the template for that…And that brings us to the last point, the Digital Service Act.
The Digital Service act says that in a state of emergency, whatever that is, they don’t announce that or explain that, that they technically can sanction, punish or whatever punishment they have in their mind, journalists and information.
Varoufakis closes by addressing how dangerous this threat now is for European citizens and journalists.
Tyler Durden Wed, 01/28/2026 - 02:00“And we need to emphasize this. I’m glad we have Hüseyin (Doğru) here because this innovation by the German government on the one hand and of course the European Commission on the other is a vile and dangerous precedent, as Hüseyin said. Today, they choose to use anti-Russian or Russian related decrees in order to stop a journalist, a German citizen, from writing about Palestine.
Tomorrow, they can do exactly the same thing regarding any issue, any topic that they do not want people to talk about. It could be anything from the investigation of an accident, a railway accident, an airplane crash. Once we have allowed them to use extrajudicial cancellation methods of European citizens, then that is the thin edge of the wedge. And we go back to really before Magna Carta, before Magna Carta. We’re not talking about democracy now in big domains. We’re going, no, we are digging ourselves into a hole, a wormhole that brings us out like a time machine before the time of Magna Carta.”
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