Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
Jerome, You are, as usual, "Too Late". You have cost the USA a fortune - and continue to do so - you should lower the rate - by a lot! Hundreds of billions of dollars being lost! No Inflation.Mr. Trump also wrote "Should be here" and referenced rates between 0.25% and 1.75%. The current Fed's Fund rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%. Fed Chair Powell is probably correct about rates currently being "modestly" restrictive, but it is possible we are neutral now.
Click on graph for larger image."We are pulling forward our forecast for the next cut to September. We had previously expected a cut in December because we thought that the peak summer tariff effects on monthly inflation would make it awkward to cut sooner. But the very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit smaller than we expected, other disinflationary forces have been stronger, and we suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price level effect. And while the labor market still looks healthy, it has become hard to find a job, and both residual seasonality and immigration policy changes pose near-term downside risk to payrolls."Maybe the impact on inflation from the tariffs will be less than expected. And it seems likely the impact will be mostly transitory.
Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) decreased -0.23% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in May. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, the National FMHPI was up 2.2% in May, down from up 2.6% YoY in April. The YoY increase peaked at 19.0% in July 2021, and for this cycle, bottomed at up 0.9% YoY in April 2023. ...There is much more in the article!
As of May, 31 states and D.C. were below their previous peaks, Seasonally Adjusted. The largest seasonally adjusted declines from the recent peaks are in D.C. (-4.7), Colorado (-3.1%), Idaho (-3.0%), Texas (-2.7%), and Florida (-2.2%).
For cities (Core-based Statistical Areas, CBSA), 257 of the 384 CBSAs are below their previous peaks.
Here are the 30 cities with the largest declines from the peak, seasonally adjusted. Austin continues to be the worst performing city. However, 4 of the 6 cities with the largest price declines are in Florida. Cities in Florida (10) and Texas (7) dominate this list.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday criticized Federal Reserve policymakers for what he described as their hesitant posture on interest rates, while signaling that the U.S. Treasury is unlikely to alter its current strategy on debt issuance by increasing long-term bond sales.
In a wide-ranging interview, Bessent said that recent yields on long-duration Treasurys make it a poor time to lengthen the government's debt profile. “Why would we do that?” Bessent said on Bloomberg Television. “The time to have done that would have been in 2021, 2022.”
Ten-year Treasury yields currently stand at about 4.26%, well above the levels of shorter-term instruments such as the two-year note (3.73%) and 12-month bills (3.81%). Bessent suggested issuing more long-term bonds at these rates would be counterproductive, especially given his expectation that inflation will continue to moderate and pull interest rates lower across the maturity spectrum.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated it wouldn’t make sense for the government to ramp up sales of longer-term securities given where yields are today, though he held out hope that interest rates across maturities will be falling as inflation slows https://t.co/aVi8yJyDOT pic.twitter.com/5yqcNjFCXQ
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) June 30, 2025
“As we see inflation come down, I think the whole curve in parallel can shift down,” he said, referencing the Treasury yield curve, a key barometer for economic sentiment.
Bessent, who succeeded Janet Yellen as Treasury chief, has retained much of his predecessor’s issuance strategy, despite having previously criticized her for over-reliance on short-term borrowing. At the time, he argued the policy was politically motivated to suppress long-term borrowing costs ahead of the 2024 election.
But Bessent emphasized that now is not the moment to pivot. “Why would we do it at these rates, if we are more than one standard deviation above the long-term rate?” he asked rhetorically.
Fed 'Frozen at the Wheel'While expressing confidence in the direction of fiscal policy and trade strategy, Bessent leveled pointed criticism at the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting stance. They "seem a little frozen at the wheel,” he said of Fed officials. “My worry here is that, having fallen down on the American people in 2022, the Fed’s now looking at their feet," rather than looking ahead.
The Treasury Secretary cited the Fed’s delayed response to rising prices in 2022 as a pivotal misstep and warned that similar inertia could hinder the central bank’s ability to respond to changing economic conditions. “The Fed made a gigantic mistake in 2022,” he added.
Bessent also pushed back against the idea that recent tariffs have stoked inflation. “We have seen no inflation from tariffs,” he said, calling such effects “transitory” and suggesting they result in only a one-time price adjustment. He hinted at more trade activity on the horizon, saying he expects a “flurry of trade deals” in the days leading up to the July 9 negotiating deadline. The U.S. has already reached agreements with the United Kingdom and China, with ongoing talks still underway.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discusses the July 9 deadline for trade deals and the potential to “spring back to the April 2 levels” on tariffs for countries that can’t get a deal across the line https://t.co/sI2bIFyJ9z pic.twitter.com/HaKopYwcjx
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) June 30, 2025
Meanwhile, as speculation mounts over who might succeed Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends in May 2026, Bessent acknowledged that discussions are already underway. “Obviously there are people who are currently at the Fed who are under consideration,” he said, adding that the administration is eyeing the January 2026 seat opening as a potential stepping stone for the next chair.
Observers have noted Governor Christopher Waller - a Trump-era appointee who has recently called for possible rate cut - as a likely contender. Bessent also mentioned that current Governor Adriana Kugler’s term concludes in January, providing another possible opening for strategic appointments.
He downplayed speculation about his own interest in the job. “I’ll do whatever the president wants,” he said, but added that he already has the "best job in DC”
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he "has the best job in DC," and that the administration will be working on Fed Chair Powell's successor over the coming months https://t.co/hDX84K48mZ pic.twitter.com/JulxyYoppy
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) June 30, 2025
Looking forward, Bessent expressed optimism about the direction of U.S. fiscal strategy. He voiced support for the Republican budget bill currently advancing in Congress, describing it as a “start” in the effort to bring U.S. debt under control while promoting economic growth.
Bessent also suggested that we could see a lowering of rates, as inflation is "very tame," adding that he is confident the fiscal policy bill will progress in the coming hours.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that the proposed Medicaid cuts will get able-bodied people back to work, and bring enrollment down to pre-Covid levels https://t.co/rhGgfhuuR5 pic.twitter.com/Mg9ipQEikp
— Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) June 30, 2025
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 11:25
Last week, I moderated an amazing panel of emerging Hedge Fund & Alternative Managers at the Bloomberg 2025 Forum. As promiosed, here is the full video of the conversation
The panelists on the Emerging Managers Panel were:
Matthew Cherwin: Co-Founder & CIO, Marek Capital Management
Imran Khan: Founder & CIO, Proem Asset Management
Matt Jozoff: Co-CEO & Portfolio Manager, Trevally Capital
Hear from new and emerging fund leaders on the opportunities and obstacles of launching and growing a differentiated investment strategy in today’s competitive alternatives landscape, including how they are leveraging AI to enhance investment processes, streamline operations, and navigate the early stages of building a fund.
The post Video: Bloomberg Hedge Fund/Alt Fund Manager appeared first on The Big Picture.
Authored by Amin Haqshanas via CoinTelegraph.com,
Stablecoins have become the backbone of internet payments, with adoption now outpacing major traditional card networks in onchain volume, according to Noam Hurwitz, head of engineering at Alchemy.
Hurwitz told Cointelegraph that stablecoins have seen “explosive” adoption, adding that they are “becoming the default settlement layer for the internet.”
Companies like PayPal and Stripe are integrating stablecoins to leverage onchain infrastructure, enabling faster and cheaper transactions. “They’ve already surpassed Visa and Mastercard in onchain volume by 7%,” Hurwitz noted, signaling a decisive shift in how money moves online.
Alchemy, which provides infrastructure to some of the largest stablecoin ecosystems, is at the center of this transformation. Hurwitz said Alchemy is “the onchain provider for Robinhood Wallet” and powers stablecoin flows for fintech giants like Visa, Stripe, Circle, and PayPal.
Stablecoins used for various purposesHurwitz said that stablecoins make money “cheap, fast, global, and secure to transfer.” These features have made them popular for various purposes, with broad adoption emerging across cross-border payments and prediction markets like Polymarket.
He added that stablecoins have become massive buyers of US Treasurys, with Tether alone generating $13 billion in profits last year while holding around $113 billion in US debt. “Tokenized money is the base of the tokenized financial system,” Hurwitz said, calling recent financial innovation built on this foundation “exciting.”
Tether holds more US Treasurys than Germany. Source: TFTC
Hurwitz said stablecoins are already functioning as the “default rails” for internet payments in many respects but flagged challenges stemming from the fragmented blockchain landscape.
Institutions, he explained, want to move quickly but must assess provider reliability and counterparty risks, especially in a nascent industry. “Can a small startup really support enterprise-grade operations while building and scaling the services they need?” he asked.
Hurwitz pointed to Kinexys, a tokenized bank deposit launched by JP Morgan, as a major milestone. The permissioned deposit token enables institutional clients to access yield-bearing deposits on a public blockchain with “24/7 settlement, near real-time liquidity and the potential ability to pay interest to holders.”
Interest in stablecoins surge with new regulationsLast week, the US Senate passed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins, or GENIUS Act, a landmark bill establishing federal guardrails for stablecoins.
“With the recent passage of the Genius Act, the regulatory landscape is becoming clearer and more structured, which benefits established financial players while also encouraging innovation,” Hurwitz said.
Meanwhile, Hurwitz pointed out key technical bottlenecks in improving developer and end-user experience despite strong growth. “Companies benefit immensely from settling on crypto rails, but want to decouple the user experience from the underlying technology — and doing so takes deep technical expertise,” he explained.
Looking ahead, Hurwitz expects most financial services to deploy their own blockchains, especially layer 2 networks, to better scale and monetize their ecosystems.
He predicted that infrastructure improvements would drive “seamless crosschain interoperability” between these networks, enabling a more connected and efficient financial system built on stablecoins.
Despite Hurwitz’s optimistic view of stablecoins, a new Bank for International Settlements (BIS) report challenges the notion that they can serve as money in a modern financial system.
The BIS Annual Economic Report 2025 claims stablecoins fail critical singleness, elasticity, and integrity tests. The organization described stablecoins as “digital bearer instruments” that resemble financial assets more than actual money.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 10:45A mysterious blast struck a tanker carrying 1 million barrels of oil near Libya, and the vessel is now being towed to Greece for damage assessment, according to Bloomberg, citing a statement from the ship's manager. The incident comes amid growing concerns about attacks on commercial vessels navigating highly contested waters, including the Strait of Hormuz and other key shipping lanes.
The Vilamoura suffered a severe explosion that appears to have led to significant water intake, flooding the tanker's engine room. The exact cause of the blast—and whether it originated inside or outside the ship—remains unclear.
Interestingly, Bloomberg compiled ship-tracking data on the Vilamoura's recent sails, revealing that the tanker visited the Russian port of Ust-Luga in early April, where it loaded Kazakh-origin barrels. It also had a port calling at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near the Russian port of Novorossiysk in May, which primarily handles Kazakh oil.
The explosion remains suspicious given the tanker's recent routes and raises the possibility of a covert allied special forces operation aimed at paralyzing the tanker known for hauling Russian crude. While purely speculative at this stage, the theory is not entirely far-fetched given the ongoing war in Ukraine as European maritime authorities prepare to launch a formal investigation into the incident.
Related maritime news:
Container Ship Sinks In Arabian Sea Near Oman As Regional Conflict Worsens
Widespread GPS Jamming Across Strait Of Hormuz; Six Supertankers Perform Abrupt U-Turns
Ship Carrying 800 EVs Abandoned In Pacific After Fire Breaks Out
. . .
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 10:25Authored by Adam Millsap viathe American Institute for Economic Research (AIER),
The Trump administration has increased tariff rates on dozens of countries in part to kickstart trade policy negotiations. These tariffs include 10-percent tariffs on dozens of countries, tariffs of over 30 percent on China, 50-percent tariffs on steel and aluminum, and 25-percent tariffs on autos. While the specifics of each negotiation will vary depending on the country’s role in the global economy and its current trade laws, there are three high-level goals relevant to all countries Trump should pursue. If he is successful, these negotiations will make US manufacturers more competitive, keep prices low for consumers, improve America’s ability to confront China, and help reduce the risk of a global trade war.
The US Court of International Trade recently ruled that many of Trump’s tariffs are illegal, but they’ve been allowed to remain in place pending appeal. In the meantime, Trump’s administration is discussing trade policy with several countries. This is wise since keeping the tariffs in place long-term will hurt the US economy. The Penn Wharton Budget Model estimates that Trump’s reciprocal tariff plan would reduce GDP by six percent and wages by five percent if it became permanent. A middle-income household would face a long-term income loss of $22,000. This income loss would offset nearly 15 years of tax savings that the average family receives from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Trump’s signature tax plan from his first term.
The primary goal of Trump’s trade negotiations should be to expand trade by reducing tariff rates and other trade barriers.
Here are three ways his administration could achieve this goal.
First, negotiate zero-for-zero tariffs on manufacturing inputs that would remove tariffs on inputs needed by USmanufacturers. These could be modeled on the terms contained in the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) that expanded access to intermediate inputs for thousands of small and medium-sized US manufacturers, allowing them to expand production and increase jobs for American workers. Agreeing to similar terms with other countries would ensure American manufacturers can get the materials they need to produce high-quality products.
Second, negotiate the elimination of non-tariff foreign trade barriers that inhibit US exports, US foreign direct investment, and US electronic commerce. Trade barriers include laws, regulations, policies, and practices—including non-market policies and practices—that distort or undermine competition. Examples include inadequate intellectual property protections, local content requirements, export subsidies, and unnecessary safety or sanitary standards. Country-specific examples that should be reformed are provided annually by the United States Trade Representative in its National Trade Estimate Report on Foreign Trade Barriers.
Third, negotiate tougher trade enforcement provisions to prevent China and other countries from evading US trade laws by rerouting exports to the United States through other countries. Countries should agree to allocate more resources to the enforcement of trade laws and verifying the country of origin of the goods that cross their borders. This would protect US consumers and firms from illegal or unsafe goods and help maintain the integrity of the global trade system.
Reducing tariffs on manufacturing inputs, eliminating non-tariff trade barriers, and improving enforcement of US trade laws would help the Trump administration accomplish several of its goals. First, US exports would be more competitive, which would boost manufacturing output and create jobs. Second, the cost of inputs would be reduced, and reciprocal tariff rates could be lowered, which would help keep consumer prices low. Third, by enhancing enforcement of US trade laws, the administration would be better equipped to address China’s objectionable trade policies without unduly inhibiting mutually beneficial trade with friendlier countries.
Nations that close themselves off from the world stagnate and fail. The best known example is China’s inward turn that started in the fifteenth century and lasted until the late twentieth. China missed out on the industrial revolution and by the 1800s it had dramatically fallen behind the West. Today, it is still playing catch-up.
Trump has an opportunity to improve international trade policy and ensure that America plays a leading role in the global economy for decades to come.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 10:10
Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National Mortgage Database through Q1 2025 (released last Friday).There is much more in the article.
...
This shows the surge in the percent of loans under 3% starting in early 2020 as mortgage rates declined sharply during the pandemic.
Note that a fairly large percentage of mortgage loans were under 4% prior to the pandemic!
The percent of outstanding loans under 4% peaked in Q1 2022 at 65.1% (now at 53.4%), and the percent under 5% peaked at 85.6% (now at 71.3%). These low existing mortgage rates made it difficult for homeowners to sell their homes and buy a new home since their monthly payments would increase sharply.
This was a key reason existing home inventory levels were so low. However, time is eroding this lock-in effect.
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: June 30, 2025 ~ Aren’t Republicans the candidates who got elected promising to bring down the spiraling U.S. debt and annual deficits? Yesterday, the national debt clocked in at $37 trillion as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a report showing that President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” would add $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade. Donald Trump has been a master of Orwell’s reverse-speak throughout his life. So when he labels federal legislation “Beautiful” when it actually gives massive tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans while cutting critical food and health care benefits to the poor and middle class, Americans should finally accept that they have a clear window into the soul and sociopathy of multi-billionaire Donald Trump. Among the biggest winners, of course, is the fossil fuel industry and the political kingpin of that industry, Charles Koch, … Continue reading →
After underage girls were sexually assaulted in the Barbarossabad swimming pool in Gelnhausen, the CDU mayor of the area pointed out that “hot weather” makes tempers “fray.”
However, local Mayor Christian Litzinge (CDU) appeared to allude that the weather is at least partly to blame for the incident.
In a statement to Welt, he said: “Of course, it’s always high temperatures, and sometimes tempers are frayed.”
In a separate interview with Bild, he said, “We have zero tolerance for that.”
As Remix News previously reported, the first group of girls were groped and molested by the group of Syrians, but when they complained to a lifeguard, he took no action.
“Since we couldn’t see exactly what had happened, we sent the girls back into the water,” pool manager Nils Tischer explained to Hessischer Rundfunk.
It was only after more girls made a complaint from separate groups that the police were called.
In total, at least nine girls came forward, ranging in age from 11 to 17.
The girls told authorities that the four Syrians, aged 18 to 28, groped them in the lazy river, feeling them all over their bodies, including their genitals. A fifth suspect managed to escape, and police are still looking for him.
According to Mayor Christian Litzinger (CDU), all four suspects are from the same family in the Main-Kinzig district.
They were all arrested and charged, in addition to receiving a ban from the outdoor pool.
Alice Weidel, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) co-leader, also posted about the incident on social media, calling for “immediate deportations” in the case.
Attempts to downplay the problems in German swimming poolsSexuelle Belästigung von Mädchen: Gleich 9 Opfer zeigten sexuelle Übergriffe an, eine Gruppe "syrischer Staatsangehöriger" soll die Taten in einem Freibad im CDU-regierten Hessen begangen haben. Sofortige Ausweisung der Täter veranlassen! #DeshalbAfD pic.twitter.com/jtVkT7AeHI
— Alice Weidel (@Alice_Weidel) June 28, 2025
Litzinger’s comments echo some other “excuses” offered for sexual violence and assaults from migrants at Germany’s once peaceful swimming pools. An article in 2023 from Zeit attempted to claim that much of the violence and sexual assaults were due to rising French fry prices.
At the time, Alice Weidel, co-leader of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), criticized the claim.
“Zeit blames ‘French fry prices’ for violence and sexual assaults in outdoor pools, ZDF claims an interplay of heat and the meeting of many people, Deutschlandfunk writes about too high ‘expectations’ that cannot be met. The degree to which the media trivializes migration problems no longer knows any limits,” wrote Alice Weidel, parliamentary leader of the AfD party.
Die #Zeit macht "Pommes-Preise" für Gewalt und sexuelle Übergriffe in Freibädern verantwortlich, das #ZDF ein Zusammenspiel von Hitze und dem Aufeinandertreffen vieler Menschen, der Deutschlandfunk eine zu hohe "Erwartungshaltung", die nicht erfüllt werden könne. Der Grad der…
— Alice Weidel (@Alice_Weidel) July 17, 2023
Just a week before that statement, the actual workers at the swimming pools offered an entirely different reason for the increasing violence. Employees of the Columbiabad outdoor swimming complex in Berlin penned a letter to the Der Tagesspiegel newspaper complaining about perpetrators they describe as “mainly Arab migrants and Chechens” who are engaging in the sexual harassment of women and mass brawls on the premises, while also leaving the complexes in disgusting conditions. As a result, the entire pool was shut down for an indefinite period of time due to workers calling out sick from stress.
Remix News has long reported on the growing crime trend in German swimming pools, including mass brawls and sexual assaults, as well as attacks on police, security officials and even lifeguards working at the pools.
In 2022, Remix News covered how the president of the Federal Association of German Swimming Champions (BDS), Peter Harzheim, said he can no longer recommend that families visit such facilities on weekends. Harzheim claimed he would be “acting irresponsibly” if he attended an outdoor pool with his own three grandchildren due to violence and assaults, which the Remix News article details.
Some individuals have been seriously injured. Last year, for example, a woman had her nose broken when she was caught in the middle of a mass brawl involving foreigners.
In 2023, Welt released a popular video documentary detailing how “macho culture” from migrants was turning the swimming pools in Germany upside down.
Columbiadamm swimming pool in the multicultural neighborhood of Neukölln, Berlin, was closed down due to over 40 warring youths. Welt lays the blame squarely at the feet of “macho culture” from immigrant youth. In Pankow, a swimming pool had to be shut down twice in one week due to mass brawls between young people.
In the German city of Celle, 20 “rampaging youth” attacked swimmers and sexually assaulted them, including beating one female who rejected their advances. When lifeguards attempted to stop them, they threatened them as well. As a result, the entire swimming pool was shut down.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 09:25S&P 500 futures pushed deeper into record territory as progress in trade negotiations aids sentiment following Friday’s record high close for cash index, the first since February. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.4% on positive trade headlines, including US/Canada, US/EU, US/India, and US/Taiwan (on Friday, the US/Canada flare up limited gains late in the session, with Canada reversing just two days later and agreeing to withdrew its digital services tax on US tech companies to restart talks). Nasdaq futures gain 0.6% amid a continued meltup in AI names and the most shorted basket; tech stocks lead in premarket trading, with Mag7/semis producing early strength, banks higher on de-reg, with Industrials also pushing Cyclicals over Defensives. Major European markets are all lower with France leading and Spain lagging, while the Asian session saw Japan leading and HK lagging given weakness in HSTECH. Besides the Canadian U-turn, French Finance Minister Lombard said hes optimistic about securing a EU/US trade deal before the July 9th deadline; India’s trade team extended their stay in the US to work on a deal. Outside of trade, focus for the week will be on quarter-end today, Powell speaking and ISM Manf on Tuesday and Payrolls on Thursday, along with negotiations over Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Yields are lower with the very front-end selling off while 10Y yields are down 2bps to 4.25%. Month-end bond index rebalancing at 4pm New York time has potential to drive buying by passive investors. The USD starts the week lower. Commodities are mixed with Energy weaker, precious higher, and Ags mixed. Today’s macro data focus is Chicago PMIs (9:45am), Dallas Fed Manf (10:30am), Fed’s Bostic (10am), Goolsbee (1pm); markets await jobs data over the next 3 sessions.
In premarket trading, Tesla is the only stock among Magnificent 7 companies falling, down 0.8%, as President Trump’s landmark budget bill passed a key senate hurdle over the weekend. The bill cuts electric vehicle and other clean energy credits. Other Mag7 names are all higher (Amazon +0.6%, Meta +1.9%, Apple +0.8%, Nvidia +0.7%, Alphabet +1.2%, Microsoft +0.6%).
The de-escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, combined with data highlighting the US economy’s resilience, propelled the S&P 500 to a record high last week, marking a stunning rebound from April’s tariff-induced rout. Subdued inflation is also strengthening market expectations for interest-rate cuts, even as the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance.
Sure enough, US futures continue to climb on positive trade developments ahead of the July 9th deadline; Canada withdrew digital service tax on tech firms to restart talks w/ US, France’s finance minister said EU can reach some form of agreement before July 9th deadline, India’s team extended their stay in the US to work on a deal, Taiwan noted constructive progress, although Japan talks reportedly stalled over auto tariffs. With Trump’s July 9 trade deadline fast approaching, officials say negotiations with major partners such as China and the European Union are making progress. Talks with Canada are back on track after the country withdrew a digital services tax, while India’s trade team extended their stay in Washington to iron out differences.
“There is room for further investments in stocks. However, let us not forget that the tariffs will bring a stagflation risk on the US economy,” said Fabien Benchetrit, head of target allocation for France and southern Europe at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “Looking at all the positioning indicators at my disposal, I can not exclude a melt-up.”
Elsewhere, Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act starts a Senate debate/vote this morning with the goal still for a passage by July 4th, after passing a key procedural block by a narrow margin over the weekend. Negotiations are continuing as Republicans seek to convince holdouts to support it for final passage. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the measure would add nearly $3.3 trillion to US deficits over a decade, weighing on the greenback.
Momentum trades persisted not only in stonks, but also in FX, and the dollar resumed its decline, falling as much as 0.4% against a basket of currencies to trade near three-year lows. The Bloomberg dollar index is down almost 9% for the year, its worst first half since the gauge’s inception in 2005.
“The US dollar remains under cyclical downward pressure, driven by ongoing uncertainties surrounding US fiscal and trade policies,” noted Lloyd Chan, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. “One key driver that could further hurt the US dollar is the potential surge in fiscal debt stemming from President Trump’s one big beautiful bill.”
In Asia, the Taiwan dollar plunged more than 2% against the greenback. The sudden move in late trading followed a pattern seen on Friday, fueling speculation the central bank intervened to curb strength in the currency.
Investors are looking to upcoming data, including the monthly payrolls report, to assess the strength of the economy and the outlook for interest rates, with swap traders pricing in at least two quarter-points of Fed easing this year. The employment data “will be watched closely for any signs that the US economy is reaccelerating or slowing more than anticipated,” said Daniel Murray, chief executive officer of EFG Asset Management. “If the latter, then the Fed would be expected to cut rates earlier, although it would be more concerning from the corporate side of things.”
European stocks erase early gains as the Stoxx 600 declines 0.2% with auto, bank and mining shares leading the broader market lower. Here are the most notable movers:
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged lower, reversing early gains, as losses widened in Hong Kong and Taiwan in late trading. Tech shares weighed on the regional benchmark after making advances last week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an increase of as much as 0.4% to trade 0.2% lower, with TSMC, Tencent and Alibaba the biggest drags. Gauges in India and the Philippines also fall, while those in Japan, South Korea and Australia closed higher. Tech firms listed in Hong Kong mostly traded lower as investors took some money off the table ahead of a deadline for trade talks with the US next week. Shares fell more than 1% in Taiwan amid equity outflows and as the local currency slumped in a sudden move toward the end of trading.
In rates, treasury futures advance in early US session, outperforming European bonds gaining on UK GDP and regional German CPI data. Yields are 2bp-3bp richer across tenors with curve spreads little changed; 10-year TSY near 4.25% is about 2.5bp richer on the day and about 1bp better vs bunds and gilts in the sector. Month-end bond index rebalancing is projected to increase duration of Bloomberg Treasury index by 0.07 year. Bunds gain, having benefited from state inflation readings that point to the national rate coming in slightly below the consensus later on Monday. Italian CPI also rose less than expected. German 10-year borrowing costs fall 1 bp to 2.58%.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% while the yen take top spot among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.3% against the greenback. The pound is the weakest with a 0.1% fall.
In commodities, oil slightly lower following headlines of a potential sizeable OPEC+ production increase on Friday, with the meeting set for this weekend. CTA models are now firmly for sale in oil—nearly $10bn in selling expected over the week across Brent and WTI. WTI trades down 0.3% to around $65 a barrel. Energy remains a funding short. Spot gold climbs $10 to around $3,285/oz.
Looking at today's calendar, the US data slate includes June MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers) and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am). Ahead this week are ISM manufacturing, JOLTS, ADP employment and June employment report — on Thursday ahead of July 4 holiday. Fed speakers include Bostic (10am) and Goolsbee (1pm). Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell participates on a policy panel in Sintra with BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, ECB President Christine Lagarde, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee.
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
Trade/Tariffs
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the week mostly in the green following last Friday's record highs on Wall St but with some of the gains capped heading into month-end and as participants digested a slew of data including somewhat mixed Chinese PMIs. ASX 200 edged higher with strength in the defensive sectors but with upside limited by data including softer-than- expected private sector credit. Nikkei 225 outperformed despite disappointing Industrial Production data which showed a surprise Y/Y contraction and with the index also unfazed by recent comments from US President Trump who noted that Japanese vehicles should be subject to a 25% auto tariff in the US. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed following the latest PMI data which showed headline Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory, as expected, although Non-Manufacturing PMI accelerated at a faster pace than forecast.
Top Asian News
European bourses kicked off the first trading session of the week with modest gains following the upside on Wall Street, in which the sentiment reverberated into APAC markets before reaching Europe; Stoxx 600 +0.1%. However, gains are modest and benchmarks are gradually dipping into the red with traders cognisant of the looming July 9th reciprocal deadline. Sectors opened firmer with just Energy in the red, though the picture since has become more mixed but with the breadth of price action narrow. Focus on reports that US tariff policies coupled with low river levels are causing the worst supply chain congestion since COVID, according to FT. Issues at the ports of Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg are expected to last for several months.
Top European News
FX
Fixed Income
Commodities
Geopolitics: Middle East
Geopolitics: Ukraine
Geopolitics: Other
US Event Calendar
Central Banks speakers
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Good morning and welcome to the last day of a tumultuous H1. I think I got heatstroke three times over the weekend so I'm looking forward to work and air con today. Good luck in parts of France, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece (amongst others) as you continue to battle temperatures over 40 degrees.
If the heat doesn't impact you, standby to be disorientated in other ways in this holiday shortened week, as payrolls sees a rare Thursday outing ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday. We also have the US ISMs tomorrow and Wednesday, and the various global PMI numbers from tomorrow which will give us a good guide to global economic momentum in June. Elsewhere a highlight will be the ECB forum in Sintra starting today and the European inflation numbers today and tomorrow. The US tax bill should be finalised this week although at the moment it needs to pass the Senate today (or possibly tomorrow), after a drama filled weekend of horse trading, and then back to the House for final approval. The President wants it done by Friday's holiday. At that point attention will swiftly focus to the July 9th deadline extension for reciprocal tariffs. Indeed you'll probably get headlines build up this week and the risk to the market is that with the S&P 500 hitting a new record high at the end of last week, with Treasury yields more becalmed, and with a new tax cutting bill, it's possible that the Trump Administration feels emboldened to be aggressive again. On Friday the US announced that they were stopping trade talks with Canada in retaliation for their digital service taxes and that new tariffs would be launched within a week. However, overnight Canada has dropped this tax to enable talks to restart. This is perhaps a warning shot for the world. So before next Wednesday a lot of water will flow under the global trade bridge.
As noted at the top there is still a fair amount to get through this week first and we'll now go through a few of the main highlights of the week ahead, but remember the full day-by-day calendar is at the end as usual.
For payrolls, DB expects the headline number (+100k forecast vs. +139k previously) to be slightly below the consensus of +113k, with a similar story for private payrolls (DB +100k, consensus +110k, vs. +140k previously). This would also be below the three-month average of 135k and 133k, respectively. Their rationale is based on 1) initial jobless claims being up 8.8% during the June survey week relative to May; and 2) their observation of a recent pattern of subdued summer payroll gains. They also expect the unemployment rate to edge up a tenth to 4.3% but with the risks skewed to it staying unchanged.
Although 100k on payrolls seems low, our economists think the breakeven rate which keeps the unemployment rate steady, is around 100k at the moment and could even be as low as 50k given the Trump Administrations' migration policies. If correct we could have a situation where low payroll growth still tightens the labour market. See US Economic Perspectives: Potential paths for breakeven employment for more on this.
Leading up to payrolls we have JOLTS tomorrow, ADP on Wednesday and also watch out for the employment components in today’s Chicago PMI, tomorrow’s manufacturing ISM, and Wednesday’s Services ISM.
In Europe, the big event will be the ECB's forum on central banking in Sintra running from today through to Wednesday. The policy panel tomorrow will feature heads of the Fed, the ECB, the BoJ, the BoE and the BoK. So plenty of potential headlines there. The ECB will also release its account of the June policy meeting on Thursday and their consumer expectations survey is due tomorrow. Elsewhere in Europe, the BoE will publish its DMP, bank liabilities and credit conditions surveys on Thursday.
In terms of European data, June CPI will continue to be in focus after Friday's prints for France and Spain showed a slight uptick in inflation. Reports for Germany and Italy are out today, with the Eurozone-wide release scheduled for tomorrow. Swiss inflation data is due on Thursday. We also have May German retail sales (today) and factory orders (Friday), Italian retail sales and French IP on Friday.
In Japan the BoJ's Q2 Tankan survey results come out tomorrow with our economists forecasting that the business condition index for large manufacturers in the Tankan survey will worsen -3 points to +9. They expect a similar gauge for large non-manufacturers to slip -2 points to +33. This could be one of a few factors that help influence whether the BoJ hikes again in July, although there's lots of moving parts at the moment including trade agreements with the US.
Asian equity markets are predominantly trading higher this morning. The Nikkei (+1.64%) is standing out, with the index surging to near a one-year peak, propelled by technology stocks. The KOSPI (+0.69%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.52%) are also higher. Chinese stocks are more mixed with the Hang Seng (-0.56%) trading lower, the CSI (-0.02%) flat, but the Shanghai Composite (+0.20%) edging up. S&P 500 (+0.41%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.57%) futures are both pretty firm for this time of day.
Early morning data indicated that China's manufacturing sector contracted for the third consecutive month in June, although at a slightly slower pace than anticipated. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in June (49.6 expected) from the previous month's 49.5. However, the non-manufacturing PMI accelerated a touch, increasing to 50.5 in June, exceeding expectations that it would remain stable at 50.3. Consequently, China's Composite PMI improved to 50.7 in June from 50.4 in May.
In other news, Japan's industrial output fell significantly short of expectations, with a mere +0.5% month-on-month increase compared to the expected +3.4% growth. Although production saw improvements in critical sectors such as machinery and automobiles, five categories—led by non-auto transport equipment—experienced declines.
Recapping last week now and markets were in a buoyant mood, with the S&P 500 rising +3.44% to a new all-time high of 6,173 (+0.52% on Friday) as we closed out the week. Tech stocks outperformed, with the NASDAQ (+4.25%, +0.52% Friday) advancing every day last week to a new high of its own. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.32%) posted a modest weekly gain, with the DAX (+2.90%) outperforming, led by German defense companies. And in Japan, the Nikkei had its best week of 2025 so far, up +4.55% (+1.43% on Friday).
The positive mood started with the de-escalation in the Middle East after Trump announced Monday evening that Israel and Iran agreed on a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE.” Following this, Brent crude saw its biggest weekly decline since 2022, down -12.00% to $67.77/bbl (+0.06% Friday). Meanwhile, gold fell -2.79% on the back of declining geopolitical risk (-1.61% Friday).
Last week’s upbeat tone was also helped by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts despite decent economic data. The positive data included the flash US PMIs for June (52.8 vs. 52.2 expected) and Friday’s UoM consumer survey, that saw current conditions rebound to a four-month high. On the softer side, we saw higher continuing jobless claims (+1,974k vs +1,950k expected) on Thursday and an unexpected drop in May real personal spending (-0.3% vs. 0.0% expected) on Friday.
Lower oil prices and comments from Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision, saw pricing of a July rate cut rise as high as 25% on Wednesday, though it was down to 19% by Friday following a slightly stronger (2.7% vs. 2.6% expected) US core PCE inflation print. Still, the next Fed rate cut is now fully priced by September and 64bps of easing is priced by December (+12.7bps on the week). In turn, Treasury yields moved lower, with the 2yr down -16.0bps (+2.9bps Friday) to 3.75%, its lowest since early April, while the 10yr yield was down -9.9bps to 4.28% (+3.6bps Friday). Treasuries were also supported by the Fed announcing a planned easing of banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio.
By contrast In Europe, 10yr bund yields rose +7.4bps to 2.59% (+2.2bps Friday) as the German government unveiled a faster-than-expected ramp up of its fiscal stimulus. However, OATs (+1.7bps) and BTPs (-2.4bps) saw smaller moves, with the 10yr BTP-bund spread falling to its lowest level since 2015 at 88bps. The contrasting rates moves on the two sides of the Atlantic saw EURUSD rise +1.69% on the week to 1.1718, its highest level since September 2021.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 08:36President Donald Trump, in a pre-taped interview on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo, revealed that "a group of very wealthy people" is prepared to acquire TikTok's U.S. operations. While he did not disclose the identities of the investors, Trump hinted that the names could be made public in the coming weeks.
"We have a buyer for TikTok, by the way. I think I'll probably need China approval, and I think President Xi will probably do it," Trump told Bartiromo, noting, "It's a group of very wealthy people."
Trump: “We have a buyer for TikTok, by the way.”
— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 29, 2025
Bartiromo: “Who's the buyer?”
Trump: “I'll tell you in about two weeks.” pic.twitter.com/qxF3WMZ3Z8
TikTok's future in the U.S. has been uncertain since the passage of the 2024 bipartisan law, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA), which requires the platform's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest its ownership or face a nationwide ban. The legislation was fueled by growing concerns over various national security threats, including foreign interference in elections and potential misuse of sensitive user data.
Just weeks ago, Trump once again delayed enforcement of PAFACA through an executive order, pushing the deadline back to mid-September. The original implementation date had been set for his inauguration in January.
Trump has been a supporter of TikTok, recently touting his popularity on the app: "I was No. 1 on TikTok in its history. Can you believe that? ... So I guess I like TikTok."
Trump has tasked Vice President JD Vance with overseeing efforts to find a potential buyer, which could include Oracle's Larry Ellison and firms like Perplexity AI and AppLovin.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 08:30
Click on graph for larger image.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.My 4-day week Monday reads:
• The Business of Betting on Catastrophe: World Bank pandemic bonds paid out only after death tolls passed a threshold. They’re part of a booming market where investors turn calamity into capital. (The MIT Press Reader)
• The Stock-Market Rally Is Moving Beyond Big Tech and Investors Are Thrilled. One measure of market breadth recently touched a new high, as financial and industrial names fuel stocks’ climb. (Wall Street Journal) see also Bonds Have Underperformed. Why You Should Own Them Now. Barron’s has long favored dividend-paying stocks for those seeking income. But bonds now deserve a hard look because they are so attractively priced. (Barron’s)
• Why gold prices are forecast to rise to new record highs: “We have seen this before in 2008, 2020, and even in August 2024. Times like these are good buying opportunities, because gold typically rebounds shortly afterwards as investors seek safe assets. The same thing played out in April.” (Goldman Sachs)
• Lucky Breaks: Skilled management can take the limited resources and luck they’ve been given and multiply it. Mediocre management can’t. (Micro Cap Club)
• A Recipe for Doubling Your Stock Returns, Again and Again: Time is the secret ingredient of investing, a market veteran says. Over many decades, diversified stock index funds have produced extraordinary results. (New York Times)
• The Global A.I. Divide: Where A.I. Data Centers Are Located Only 32 nations, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, have A.I.-specialized data centers. (New York Times)
• The Future of Abundance and the Left: Left-wing commentators say abundance is their opposition. Left-wing politicians say it’s a credit to the Democratic Party. What if they’re both right? (Derek Thompson)
• How the Universe Differs From Its Mirror Image: From living matter to molecules to elementary particles, the world is made of “chiral” objects that differ from their reflected forms. (Quanta Magazine) see also The Largest Camera Ever Built Releases Its First Images of the Cosmos: The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is poised to discover billions of new astronomical objects, revolutionizing understanding of everything from the history of the solar system to the workings of dark energy. (Wired)
• How one program is changing surf culture in San Francisco: City kids in SF spend their Fridays learning to surf through this cool project. (The San Francisco Standard)
• The essential listening guide to Bruce Springsteen’s ‘Tracks II: The Lost Albums’ It’s a great day when your favorite artist releases a new record. But what if they released seven new records at once, recorded across almost three decades, full of music you didn’t even know existed? (NPR)
Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week Velina Peneva, where she manages more than $100 billion of Swiss Re‘s internal cpaital as the firm’s Chief Investment Officer: Previously, she was Private Equity practice leader in Zurich for Bain & Company.
What does it cost the IRS to collect taxes?
Source: USA Facts
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Authored by Joe Brettell via UtilityDive.com,
The promise, peril and possibilities of artificial intelligence continue to capture the cultural and business zeitgeist worldwide. Hardly a conference or long-form interview can be held these days without a panelist or pundit commenting on the technology’s implications for their profession.
Yet despite being the hottest topic in every circle, AI’s ultimate challenge isn’t technological but physical. After years of breathless speculation and prediction, the issue remains the same: AI needs more energy.
Data center power consumption
Source: McKinsey
Amidst this backdrop, the oil and gas industry faces a similarly fundamental challenge: a shifting production frontier and evolving path to continued growth. After a decade of efficiency-driven growth, the era of easy barrels is waning. Diamondback Energy CEO Travis Stice captured the new reality in a recent letter, warning of the increasingly dim prospects for expanding production amid geological constraints and rising costs. Other energy majors have issued similar cautions, a sharp departure from the boom years of the shale revolution when abundant, low-cost reserves, followed by shareholder-focused production, made the industry a market favorite.
Now, with resource intensity rising, global volatility accelerating and economic conditions tightening, the industry is under pressure to find its next value horizon.
That horizon may be converging with AI.
The pairing makes increasing sense. While initially circling one another warily, major players in energy and technology have become increasingly intertwined. At major gatherings like CERAWeek, energy executives and tech leaders now share the same stage — and increasingly, the same strategic questions. How do we scale the infrastructure to match exponential AI growth? Who will supply the energy to power it? And how do we do so fast enough while dealing with rising environmental, social and regulatory concerns?
These challenges come amid a stark reality: AI’s computational appetite isn’t just increasing — it’s exploding. Several recent studies demonstrate that power demand will soar by the end of the decade, presenting real challenges for utilities and their customers who are already grappling with rising costs.
That creates both a dilemma and an opportunity. As federal and state incentives for clean energy projects face legal and political headwinds — even amid substantial private investment — the timeline to deliver renewable power at scale is getting longer. Grid interconnection queues, permitting delays and community opposition remain real barriers. At the same time, nuclear and geothermal technologies hold promise, but even under the best-case scenarios, their rollout will take years to materially shift supply.
Which brings us (again) to the topic of natural gas.
Few would dispute that a diverse portfolio of renewables, firm power, storage, nuclear and emerging technologies must meet long-term AI energy needs. But without a tectonic shift, an “all of the above” solution is no longer the political reality. Natural gas is abundant, dispatchable, and backed by a sector with proven experience in infrastructure delivery, supply chain integration and stakeholder engagement.
Granted, natural gas has its share of controversies. Building new pipelines has become increasingly complex, with communities hostile to natural gas infrastructure and deployment nationwide. Yet, despite these challenges, Exxon and Chevron have already announced serious interest in powering data centers. This partnership is not simply one of convenience but of practicality. It is not about reviving old debates but utilizing practical solutions to solve deeper issues for two pillars of the American economy.
The bottom line is that natural gas offers a workable solution for technology companies racing to deploy AI capabilities and energy companies looking to maintain shareholder value amidst a transitional time in the sector. With nuclear and geothermal both gaining political and investment momentum, gas is unlikely to be a permanent panacea but a critical bridge across a widening gap (yes, the old “bridge fuel” talking point is yet again en vogue).
This convergence between oil, technology, and ultimately, utilities isn’t simply a tactical alignment of convenience; instead, there’s a more profound structural shift — energy and compute are no longer parallel industries but mutually dependent pillars of modern innovation. If you need evidence, look no further than the recent announcement that Open AI and the United Arab Emirates will open a massive new data center in the country by 2026. Even traditional oil powers are hedging their bet and looking to participate in the changes AI will bring.
However, amidst the race to satisfy shareholders, inventors and policymakers, both industries would do well to remember customers. With concern about AI technology continuing to linger and economic challenges only growing, the political and social environment is ripe for a full-throated pushback from households already frustrated by rising energy bills, service disruptions and increasing skepticism toward unchecked tech expansion in their communities and states.
Many companies are already making significant strides on this front, with investment in local communities, building dialogue, relationships and trust. Yet just as AI’s technological promise can be limited by something practical like where to plug it in, this growing union between energy and technology sectors can be thwarted by unhappy voters.
Ultimately, the moment demands coordination and innovation, not competition. Only with pragmatic collaboration between energy developers of all kinds, grid operators and the communities where they operate can we build an energy strategy as dynamic as the technology it supports. In the end, like those paradigm-shifting endeavors, the future of AI won’t be decided by what’s possible in silicon. It will be determined by what’s deliverable in steel, concrete and kilowatt-hours.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 06:30U.S. Census data analyzed by Harvard University shows that a third of all U.S. households, whether they are buying or renting, spend more than the recommended one third of their income on housing and utilities and therefore qualify as cost-burdened.
While the overall rate of households burdened by housing cost in the U.S. was 32.7 percent in 2023, Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the chart below, several states had even higher average burdens.
You will find more infographics at Statista
California, known for its high cost of living, came in at 41.7 percent of burdened households, followed by Hawaii at 39.5 percent, Florida at 38.6 percent and New York at 38.2 percent.
In general, West Coast states and those in the country's populous Northeast showed the highest burdens, with the addition of sunshine locations Florida and Hawaii.
The least burdened households were found in the interior of the country, in West Virginia, North Dakota and Iowa, where fewer than a quarter of households felt an outsized financial burden because of housing costs. Colorado and Texas came in 11th and 12th.
The report published this week shows that renters are more often overburdened by their costs that homeowners, but that the gap has been closing in recent years.
Before and after the Great Recession, homeowners were still more overburdened than renters in the country, but this equilibrium changed in 2012 when renters began to be burdened more by rising rent costs while homeowners were profiting from zero interest rates.
With the end of the no-interest era in 2022, homeowners' burden jumped up, while the economic hardships of the inflation crisis affected both types of households.
The researchers also identified higher insurance premiums and property taxes as an issue for homeowners, while saying that more than half of renters were spending more than 50 percent of household income on renting in 50 out of the 100 largest metro areas in the United States.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 05:45Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,
Famed “Harry Potter” author J.K. Rowling became a vocal critic of transgender ideology back in 2019, when she supported a woman who lost her job for saying that biological sex is immutable. In 2020, Rowling’s tweets and essay argued that prioritizing “gender identity” over biological sex threatens women’s rights and safety, drawing from her experience as an abuse survivor. She faced fierce backlash, was branded a “TERF” by activists, and even endured death threats, but stood firm.
Rowling’s stance has only grown more defiant as she continues to call out the bullying tactics of trans activism and the erasure of women. Despite relentless attacks from activists, media outlets, and even cast members from "Harry Potter," her unapologetic wit and unwavering resolve have made her a leading voice of resistance against a radical ideology that silences dissent. This week, she once again proved why she remains a formidable force in the culture war over gender, giving courage to countless women who’ve been too afraid to speak out.
Apparently some people have been attacking Rowling by saying she looks like a “trans woman.” Her response to such attacks says it all:
Attention all men telling me I look like a trans woman: I’m sensing that this isn’t meant as a compliment. In fact, the implication seems to be that trans women look male, or odd, or ugly. This is appallingly transphobic and I’ll thank you to take your bigotry off my timeline.
— J.K. Rowling (@jk_rowling) June 24, 2025
Talk about a masterclass in rhetorical jiu-jitsu. She takes the intended insult of her critics and flips it right back on them, exposing the hypocrisy at the heart of so much of the pro-trans activist rhetoric.
Rowling’s critics, who claim to be the champions of tolerance and inclusion, routinely stoop to personal attacks and misogynistic insults whenever a woman dares to challenge their orthodoxy. The latest trend is to hurl accusations that Rowling “looks like a trans woman," a jab that is supposed to be both an insult to her and a defense of trans women. But Rowling, with her trademark wit and clarity, called their bluff.
She pointed out the obvious: If you’re accusing someone of looking like “trans woman” in the pejorative sense, you’re essentially admitting what most people already know: that “trans women” don’t look like real women. Let’s face it, men can grow out their hair, get breast implants, and take whatever drugs they want, but everyone knows what they really are. Calling Richard “Rachel” Levine a woman doesn’t make him a woman. Using female pronouns to refer to Bruce “Caitlyn” Jenner doesn’t change the fact that he is a man. Letting Will “Lia” Thomas compete against real women doesn’t erase what he is.
Rowling refuses to apologize, refuses to play by the ever-changing rules of the woke mob, and instead shines a spotlight on the contradictions baked into their rhetoric, like how calling someone a “trans woman” is supposedly empowering until it’s used as a slur. Her wit, clarity, and refusal to back down force her critics to confront the ugliness of their tactics.
Through years of smears, threats, and public pressure campaigns, Rowling has stood firm, using every attack as an opportunity to expose the movement’s double standards and moral incoherence. In an era when most public figures wilt under pressure, she’s become a symbol of courage for women everywhere who are tired of being silenced. She’s not just defending herself; she’s defending reality, and doing it with a fearlessness that leaves her critics sputtering.
Just because trans activists demand that we all pretend that men who grow their hair out and play dress up are women doesn’t mean that the rest of us have to play along. And when those same activists who have spent years lobbing insults and even death threats at Rowling try to mock her by saying she “looks like a trans woman,” they don’t expose her bigotry; they expose their own hypocrisy. If comparing her to a “trans woman” is meant as an insult, then it’s not Rowling degrading “trans women”; it’s the so-called allies who use the comparison as a punchline. In doing so, they don’t validate their ideology; they reinforce the biological truth they insist everyone ignore.
The attacks on J.K. Rowling reveal just how desperate the radical left has become to crush dissent.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 05:00Picture a dystopian future where computers don’t just mimic human thinking - they’re powered by actual human brain cells. That future is taking shape in a Cambridge, England, lab, where a groundbreaking device called CL1 is blending biology and technology in ways that could transform how we compute. Developed by Australian startup Cortical Labs and U.K.-based bit.bio, this shoebox-sized machine houses 200,000 lab-grown brain cells wired to silicon circuits, creating a “biological computer” that’s already turning heads.
Cortical Labs' CL1
Unlike traditional computers, which guzzle energy, CL1 operates with the efficiency of a human brain. “Our brains process information using a fraction of the power that modern electronics need,” Hon Weng Chong, CEO of Cortical Labs, told FT. “This could open doors to smarter robots, stronger cybersecurity, and immersive virtual worlds.”
Oh, joy.
Low-energy computing has fueled a race to develop biological systems, with Cortical Labs leading alongside competitors like FinalSpark in Switzerland and Biological Black Box in the U.S.CL1’s brain cells, grown from human skin-derived stem cells, are carefully arranged in layers: one type sparks electrical activity, while another keeps it in check. “It’s like balancing a gas pedal and brakes,” Chong explains. This precision, says bit.bio’s Tony Oosterveen, gives CL1 an edge over rival approaches using less uniform “mini-brains.” The result is a platform for testing how brain cells handle information, with early experiments already yielding insights for neuroscience and drug development.
Photo: Chris Radburn/FT
One of CL1’s quirkiest feats? Playing the classic video game Pong. Its predecessor, DishBrain, learned to move a virtual paddle by receiving electrical “rewards” for good moves and disruptive noise for mistakes. CL1 has taken this further, revealing how substances like alcohol impair performance or how epilepsy drugs, like carbamazepine, boost it. “We’re learning how to ‘program’ these cells,” Chong says, noting that his team is even teaching them to recognize numbers, like distinguishing a nine from a four.
Kagan and team testing the CL1 units, which are built to maintain the health of the cells living on the silicon hardware (New Atlas)
“This is the first device that can consistently measure what neurons can do,” says Mark Kotter, a Cambridge professor and bit.bio founder. Karl Friston, a neuroscientist at University College London, sees it as a tool for groundbreaking experiments, while Johns Hopkins’ Thomas Hartung praises its use of games like Pong to benchmark biological computing.
In the lab, the early CL1 model is put through its paces as the team monitors its response to stimuli (prompts) New Atlas
Chong recognizes the ethical challenges that could emerge if biological computers and neuron cultures begin to show early signs of consciousness.
“[T]hese systems are sentient because they respond to stimuli and learn from them but they are not conscious. We will learn more about how the human brain works but we do not intend to create a brain in a vat.”
The cells form an entirely new kind of artificial intelligence New Atlas
The CL1 units are slated to retail for around $35,000 each and are expected to be broadly available by late 2025, according to a report.
Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 04:15
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