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Sunday Night Futures

Calculated Risk -

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of November 16, 2025

Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 5.7, down from 10.7.

• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are mostly unchanged (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $60.09 per barrel and Brent at $64.39 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $67, and Brent was at $73 - so WTI oil prices are down about 11% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.06 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.03 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $0.03 year-over-year.

Update: Lumber Prices Down 8% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

Here is another update on lumber prices.
SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023.  I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022.  Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract was priced about 24% higher than the old random length contract for the period when both contracts were available.
This graph shows CME random length framing futures through August 2022 (blue), and the new physically-delivered Lumber Futures (LBR) contract starting in August 2022 (Red).
On November 14, 2025, LBR was at $560.00 per 1,000 board feet, down 7.7% from a year ago.
Lumber PricesClick on graph for larger image.

There is somewhat of a seasonal demand for lumber, and lumber prices frequently peak in the first half of the year.
The pickup in early 2018 was due to the Trump lumber tariffs in 2017.  There were huge increases during the pandemic due to a combination of supply constraints and a pickup in housing starts.  
Now, even with the tariffs, prices are down slightly year-over-year suggesting weak demand.

The Pentagon's European Drawdown Won't Alleviate Russia's Security Concerns

Zero Hedge -

The Pentagon's European Drawdown Won't Alleviate Russia's Security Concerns

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

The Romanian Defense Minister recently confirmed that the US will withdraw around half of its 2,000 troops as part of its plans to reprioritize Asia, which could include drawdowns from other countries as well.

It was assessed last February that “Trump Is Unlikely To Pull All US Troops Out Of Central Europe Or Abandon NATO’s Article 5” since retaining a minimal presence in this region is psychologically reassuring for those countries that fear Russia and can also function as “a tripwire for deterring aggression”.

This is especially true for aspiring regional leader Poland. Trump said in early September that the US might even deploy more troops there upon request, and while that hasn’t yet happened, Poland’s Defense Ministry confirmed that US troop numbers remain stable amidst the latest news from Romania. Those two and the Baltic States also host multiple other allies’ forces, including nuclear-armed France’s and the UK’s, whose roles complement the US’ previously mentioned “deterrence” one.

Western, Central, and Eastern Europe are also being knit together through the “military Schengen”, which refers to the initiative for facilitating the flow of troops and equipment between members, while the last two regions are becoming more integrated through the “Three Seas Initiative”. Poland, which commands NATO’s third-largest army, plays a crucial role in both by connecting “mainland Europe” with the Baltic States. This explains why it’s tipped to become the US’ top European partner in the future.

From the US’ evolving perspective after the past 3.5 years of proxy warfare, its European junior partners are finally shouldering more of the burden for containing Russia, so the presence of so many of its troops on the continent is no longer required except for “deterrence” purposes. They’re much better put to use in Asia, as policy planners now seem to believe, for encouraging its junior partners there to replicate their European counterparts by shouldering more of the burden for containing China.

So long as nuclear-armed France and the UK retain their own military presences in the countries from which the US draws down its troops, then the US can expect them to “Lead From the Front” in a crisis while the US would only need to “Lead From Behind”. Those two and Poland would play the foremost roles in future tensions with Russia while the US would provide back-end support through logistics and intelligence. It could also directly escalate on its own if the going gets tough for its junior partners.

Minimal US troops along NATO’s eastern flank would draw lines that Russian troops would be deterred from crossing on pain of drawing America directly into the conflict. The direct involvement of French and UK troops in the region would complement that role by reminding Russia that the conflict could go nuclear so all sides should keep it conventional. If the crisis further worsens, then they could rattle their nuclear sabers, especially if they by then transferred some of their nukes to Germany and/or Poland.

The evolving geopolitical, military, and strategic situation in Europe is therefore such that the US is offloading most of the responsibilities for containing Russia onto Poland, the UK, France, and Germany. Of these four, Poland is the lynchpin upon which the success of this EU-fronted but US-backed containment plan is dependent for military logistical reasons, thus meaning that its ties with Russia will greatly determine the future of war and peace in Europe after the Ukrainian Conflict finally ends.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 09:20

Goldman Sees Brighter US Housing Outlook Taking Shape For 2026

Zero Hedge -

Goldman Sees Brighter US Housing Outlook Taking Shape For 2026

Conversations around the housing market this week revolved around Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte floating the idea of 50-year mortgages, pitched by the Trump administration as a clever way to make homes more "affordable" by lowering monthly payments, expanding access, and attracting more buyers. But stretching mortgages out for roughly 65% of the average U.S. life expectancy is not affordable in the long run.

Our conversations with readers this week focused on the deepening downturn in the home improvement industry. This slide could deepen into a sharper contraction and may signal continued cooling in the housing market:

For more color on the housing market, we turn to Goldman Sachs Managing Director Kate McShane, who told clients Thursday the housing backdrop is set to improve in 2026, with mortgage rates drifting toward 6.15% and pent-up demand helping home-price appreciation recover.

Here is McShane's view on the housing market, based on her upgrade of flooring company Floor & Décor from "Sell" to "Neutral" as she sees a better 2026 environment: slightly improving housing turnover, stabilizing comps, margin recovery, and potential market-share gains as competitive pressures ease: 

  1. The housing market is anticipated to experience a more favorable environment in FY26 and our economists forecast mortgage rates at year-end 2025 and 2026 to be 6.25% and 6.15%, respectively. Our economists noted if mortgage rates remain around 6.15% (in line with their expectation), the pace of home price appreciation is likely to start to recover in 2026 due to pent-up housing demand. Our economists expect housing turnover to be flat to marginally higher in FY25 and projects a +5-7% increase in 2026 compared to 2025. Floor & Décor's comparable store sales (comps) are highly correlated to housing turnover, as replacing floors is one of the first improvements many new or existing home purchasers undertake. The company's focus on a growing Pro customer base and high-margin design services also provides growth opportunities as the market recovers.

  2. Our economists have noted that HELOC deal issuance has increased since 2023, with YTD 2025 (until 10/8/25) volume reaching post-GFC highs. The seemingly renewed interest in HELOC securitization is likely a function of both increased HELOC usage by homeowners and greater demand from investors in the securitization market. Our economists now suggest potential for significant further growth in HELOC in the coming years and expect home equity debt outstanding growth rate to tick-up slightly to around $15-17 bn/quarter in 2026 (vs. $14bn/quarter over the past 5 quarters), driven by lower financing rates and increased demand for tapping into equity. In spite of this higher activity level however, the company continues to see homeowners favor smaller-scope projects amid affordability constraints. However, we believe FND is positioned to capture potential HELOC-driven upside as macro transmission improves.

GS economists forecast 30 year fixed mortgage rate at year-end 2025 and 2026 to be 6.25% and 6.15%, respectively

Mortgage rates have started to show a declining trend

Housing turnover remains at historic low levels but could grow in FY26

Housing Affordability Index (Monthly NSA) vs. FND com

Remodeling activity picked up sequentially in 3Q

McShane's view gives readers her framework for what to expect in the spring selling season, which begins in 3 to 4 months. 

ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can access the full note and the complete chart pack in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 08:45

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov Free To Leave France As Travel Ban Lifted: Report

Zero Hedge -

Telegram CEO Pavel Durov Free To Leave France As Travel Ban Lifted: Report

Authored by Helen Partz via CoinTelegraph.com,

French authorities have reportedly lifted Telegram CEO Pavel Durov’s travel ban amid an ongoing investigation into the messaging platform.

Durov had been ordered to remain in France following his arrest in Paris in August last year, facing multiple charges related to his operation of Telegram.

Durov was previously granted temporary exemptions, and French authorities have now fully lifted restrictions on his travel, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

As part of the latest decision, dated Monday, officials also removed the requirement for Durov to regularly check in at a local police station, the report said, citing a person familiar with the matter.

Investigation still ongoing

The report did not mention any details regarding the French investigation into Telegram, hinting that the case is still active.

According to a statement on preliminary charges by France’s Prosecutor’s Office, Durov was last year accused of facilitating a platform that enables illicit transactions. The prosecutors said the Telegram CEO is facing up to 10 years in prison, in addition to a fine of $550,000.

Pavel Durov met with Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev at the Digital Bridge 2025 forum in October. Source: Press office of the President of Kazakhstan (Aqorda)

Telegram and Durov have repeatedly denied the accusations, highlighting the messenger’s compliance with industry standards and the laws of the European Union.

While denying the accusations, Durov has consistently criticized the French government, including French President Emmanuel Macron, regarding what Durov has described as the country’s political trajectory around censorship.

“Emmanuel Macron isn’t making the right choices. I’m very disappointed. France is getting weaker and weaker,” Durov said in an interview with French outlet Le Point in June.

In October, Durov warned of the potential consequences of the EU’s Chat Control proposal, urging the world to fight against the “dystopian” measures proposed by the EU.

“Germany is persecuting anyone who dares to criticize officials on the Internet. The UK is imprisoning thousands for their tweets. France is criminally investigating tech leaders who defend freedom and privacy,” Durov wrote in an X post on Oct. 9.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 08:10

A US Think-Tank Considers Armenia & Kazakhstan To Be Key Players For Containing Russia

Zero Hedge -

A US Think-Tank Considers Armenia & Kazakhstan To Be Key Players For Containing Russia

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

They’re fearmongering about Russia’s intentions towards those two in parallel with proposing closer US ties with them.

The Washington Post recently published a piece fearmongering that Putin’s “next stop” after Ukraine might be Armenia and/or Kazakhstan, which they released in the run-up to the C5+1 Summit in DC between the five Central Asian leaders and Trump. It was written by Seth Cropsey and Joseph Epstein, the president of the Yorktown Institute and the director of the Turan Research Center therein. Their organization focuses on “great power competition”, “military supremacy”, and “alliance-building”.

Those two’s mentioning of Armenia and Kazakhstan in this provocative context, as well as the timing of their article, was deliberate.

The first functions as the irreplaceable transit state along the new “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), which was assessed here in the summer shortly after its announcement as threatening to undermine Russia’s regional position. The fear is that NATO-member Turkiye will inject Western influence into the South Caucasus and Central Asia via this route.

Accordingly, Kazakhstan figures prominently in these plans since it’s the most prosperous country in the latter region and also shares the world’s longest land border with Russia, NATO’s rival.

It was assessed earlier this month that “The West Is Posing New Challenges To Russia Along Its Entire Southern Periphery” through TRIPP’s acceleration of those two regions’ engagement with the West. Even Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned about the bloc’s plans there as well as its de facto EU twin’s.

Armenia and Kazakhstan’s crucial roles in facilitating the Turkish-led injection of Western influence into their respective interconnected regions at the increasing expense of Russian interests there explains why Cropsey and Epstein decided to fearmonger that those two might be Putin’s “next stop” after Ukraine. The timing of their provocative piece importantly coincided with the C5+1 Summit and was therefore meant to influence off-the-record conversations there and/or Western reporting about the event.

According to them, last summer’s unrest in Armenia was a failed Kremlin-backed coup while Kazakhstan is being targeted through less visible forms of pressure such as the creation of pro-Russian influence networks, which they imply could precede a Donbass-like ethno-regional conflict in the north. The first was actually a patriotic revolt over the perception that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sold Armenia out to its Turkic neighbors while the second is based on unverified leaked reports and attendant speculation.

The reality is that Russia accepts that the US successfully expanded its influence in the South Caucasus and respects Kazakhstan’s multi-alignment policy. The only concern that it has is that extra-regional actors like the US, EU, NATO, and Turkiye – all of whom it’s fighting by proxy in Ukraine to varying extents – could exploit those two and their regions to threaten its national security as part of their rivalry. That would risk expanding their proxy war from Eastern Europe to the South Caucasus and/or Central Asia.

Cropsey and Epstein propose more trade and investment between the US, Armenia and Kazakhstan, and their regions, which sounds innocent but could lead to or disguise closer cooperation on other issues like security that come at Russia’s expense. What they want to do is manipulate the perceptions of Russia’s partners against it and/or provoke an overreaction from Russia that ruins their relations for the same divide-and-rule ends, which is why it’s crucial that they’re aware of this so they can avoid falling for it.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sun, 11/16/2025 - 07:00

10 Sunday Reads

The Big Picture -

Avert your eyes! My Sunday morning look at incompetence, corruption, and policy failures:

Bitcoin’s Plunge Means Trouble Beyond Tokens: Robinhood, Coinbase, and Interactive Brokers are getting clobbered, too. But you can protect your portfolio. (Barron’s)

‘God is an anti-vaxxer’: Inside the conference celebrating RFK Jr.’s rise: Eliminating the childhood vaccine schedule is among the goals for fringe activists who now claim Washington power. (Washington Post)

A Yacht for Your Yacht: Owners of the world’s most conspicuous playthings are younger, wealthier and increasingly American.. (New York Times) see also Hamptons Billionaires Call These Doctors for ‘Boat-tox’ For everything from aesthetic touch-ups to 9-1-1 emergencies, the wealthy are calling on providers who charge membership fees ranging from a few thousand dollars to six figures a year. (Wall Street Journal)

Scammers are hijacking apartment listings and impersonating real estate agents to con prospective renters:  Fraudsters are using real apartment listings and stolen agents’ identities on social media to scam prospective renters into paying fake fees. (NBC News)

$PZZA Gate, Part 2: The Network Behind Fake Papa Johns News: Papa Johns International ($PZZA) stock surged more than 18% on November 10 after false reports that the company had received an acquisition offer from a private equity firm. The fake news was spread by several websites that appear to be run by U.K. nationals based in Dubai that offer “pay-to-play” placements of articles across their network of outlets, according to Hunterbrook Media’s forensic analysis. (Hunter Brook)

The 9 most shocking revelations in the Epstein docs: The emails, released by the House Oversight Committee, include exchanges with dozens of prominent individuals spanning over a decade. (Politico)

The Decline and Fall of the Heritage Foundation: Its descent into conspiracy-mongering and blatant bigotry was utterly predictable (Paul Krugman)

• “Riots Raging”: The Misleading Story Fox News Told About Portland Before Trump Sent Troops: After reviewing coverage from the network and hours of social media videos that preceded Trump’s decision, ProPublica found that Fox’s portrayal of “Portland rioters” routinely instigating violence was misleading. (ProPublica)

Elon Musk’s $1 trillion pay package and the race to the bottom among states with weak corporate governance laws: The fight to attract big corporations is heating up as states hope to take away some of the incorporation fees and the business litigation that bring Delaware some $2.2 billion annually. Nevada is on its way; Dropbox and TripAdvisor are among those that have reincorporated there since last year. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt has said, “I’m trying to take down Delaware.” Competition is good. The danger is that as states vie to become corporations’ legal homes, the competition risks becoming a race to the bottom.—Geoff Colvin. (Fortune)

Marjorie Taylor Greene Knows Exactly What She’s Doing: The “Jewish space lasers” lady may be positioning herself to lead the MAGA movement. (Time)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview  this weekend with Bankim “Binky” Chadha, Chief US Equity & Global Strategist and Head of Asset Allocation at Deutsche Bank Securities, a role he has held since 2004.

 

50-Year Mortgage take a whopping 31 years before the first 25% is paid off, with the bulk of the payments in the first decade just servicing the interest on the debt.

Source: Sherwood

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Sunday Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

US Needs More Gas Infrastructure, Storage To Support Electric Grid: NARUC

Zero Hedge -

US Needs More Gas Infrastructure, Storage To Support Electric Grid: NARUC

By Robert Walton of UtilityDive

Summary:

  • The United States needs additional natural gas pipeline infrastructure and storage opportunities to reliably meet the growing demand for energy, a National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners task force report concluded on Wednesday.

  • NARUC’s Gas-Electric Alignment for Reliability task force, or GEAR, was formed in 2023 in an effort to improve coordination between the two interwoven energy sectors, with an ultimate goal of bolstering grid reliability.

  • The report includes nine recommendations but stopped short of advocating for a Gas Reliability Organization akin to electric grid efforts, and concluded changes to the gas-electric market day and force majeure contract provisions were unnecessary.

The National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners on Nov. 12, 2025, published a report concluding greater harmonization between the gas and power sectors is needed “to ensure reliable and affordable electricity service.” More gas pipeline infrastructure will be key to the effort, the report said.

Rising electricity demand and a reliance on gas-fired generation has at times left the power sector scrambling when necessary fuel was not available.

During Winter Storm Uri in February 2021, some Texas electric companies cut power to gas production and transportation facilities as part of their emergency conservation response. That reduced fuel supplies to gas-fired power plants, contributing to energy shortages and blackouts. Almost 250 people in Texas died in the storm.

And in 2022, unplanned generator outages reached 90,500 MW during Winter Storm Elliott, with gas fuel supply issues accounting for 20% of unplanned generating unit outages, derates and failures to start, according to the North American Electric Reliability Corp.

The GEAR report parses diverse policy perspectives around the future of gas and gas infrastructure expansion, NARUC said. However, task force participants found common ground “on the need for harmonization between the electric and natural gas sectors to ensure reliable and affordable electricity service,” the report said.

“The need for harmonization is crucial, regardless of one’s long-term perspective about future energy policy in various regions of the country,” it said.

Recommendations include: creation of a natural gas “readiness forum”; development of additional gas pipeline infrastructure and gas storage opportunities; new and enhanced market tools to improve supplier performance in extreme weather; demand response initiatives for gas utilities; and market changes to incentivize gas pipeline capacity releases.

Regulators and grid operators “should apply a strategic approach to expand opportunities for increased or new storage investment consistent with empowering end-users to exert greater control over supply needs,” the report found.

There was some support for the formation of a Gas Reliability Organization, similar to the North American Electric Reliability Corp., but not enough to advance the recommendation, the GEAR report noted. “A majority of members [concluded] that such an option (on a national, regional or state basis) is unnecessary or not the best means to efficiently enhance gas-electric reliability,” it said.

Similarly, discussions around aligning the timing of gas or electric days were not advanced. Gas and electric market schedules are typically several hours apart, though the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has historically tried to better align them.

“While it is obvious that the current bifurcated system is not how anyone would design the combined system from scratch, we are unaware of any systemwide outage that has occurred due to scheduling issues or mismatches,” the report said.

And possible changes to standard force majeure contract provisions, which cover supply disruptions, were found to be “neither viable nor productive,” the report said.

The task force noted that the primary driver for changes to the force majeure provisions “is aimed at expanded winterization of the production system,” and noted there are two recommendations that “facilitate a better understanding of force majeure and provide greater opportunities to mitigate its use.”

The recommendations provide an “ideal starting point for state regulators to ponder future steps to enhance reliability,” Dwight Keen, vice chair of the GEAR working group, said in a statement. Keen is also a regulator with the Kansas Corporation Commission.

A coalition of gas-electric groups supported the report’s findings. “The biggest challenge affecting interoperability across the systems is not operational; it is economic,” the Reliability Alliance said in a statement,

The group consists of the Electric Power Supply Association, Interstate Natural Gas Association of America and Natural Gas Supply Association.

“Competitive power suppliers have invested significantly to strengthen winter readiness, but we need continued alignment between gas and electric systems,” EPSA President and CEO Todd Snitchler said in a statement. “That’s the measure of success we’re all working toward, and GEAR’s work has been an important step to bridge that gap.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 21:00

Epstein Backfire Intensifies: He Was Live-Texting With House Democrat During 2019 'Get Trump' Hearing

Zero Hedge -

Epstein Backfire Intensifies: He Was Live-Texting With House Democrat During 2019 'Get Trump' Hearing

What a week in Epstein news... 

After Democrats dumped a new trove of emails to try and show that President Trump was much better friends with the dead sex offender than he let on, we've learned a few things

1. Trump was clearly pals with Epstein for a while. We've seen endless pictures of them hanging out. 

2. They had a serious falling out, as evidence (in the new emails) by... 

3. Epstein was helping Democrats with their efforts to hurt Trump with dirt, which we now learn extended to...

4. Texting with Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-Virgin Islands) during a 2019 congressional hearing with Michael Cohen...

Plaskett, for those who didn't know, previously served in the Virgin Islands government - helping to give Epstein tax benefits, and worked for Epstein's fixer on the island before she was elected to Congress.

Del. Stacey Plaskett (D-Virgin Islands) attends a March 2019 House hearing. (Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call/Getty Images)

As the Washington Post notes:  

In the texts, Epstein appeared to be watching the February 2019 hearing in real time and at one point informed Plaskett — whose name is redacted from the documents — that Cohen had brought up former Trump executive assistant Rhona Graff in his testimony. At the time, Cohen was testifying before the House Oversight Committee against his former boss, alleging that Trump was racist, manipulated financial records and directed hush money payments to cover up his extramarital affairs — allegations Trump denied. The president said on social media that Cohen was “lying” before testimony began.

Cohen brought up RONA - keeper of the secrets,” Epstein texted, misspelling Graff’s first name.

“RONA??” Plaskett responded. “Quick I’m up next is that an acronym,” she added, suggesting she would question Cohen soon.

In response, Plaskett's office said: "During the hearing, Congresswoman Plaskett received texts from staff, constituents and the public at large offering advice, support and in some cases partisan vitriol, including from Epstein," adding "As a former prosecutor she welcomes information that helps her get at the truth and took on the GOP that was trying to bury the truth. The congresswoman has previously made clear her long record combating sexual assault and human trafficking, her disgust over Epstein’s deviant behavior and her support for his victims."

lol... lmao even. 

The emails reveal that Plaskett texted Epstein first before the meeting started that day...

The messages show that Plaskett texted Epstein before the hearing started that day, at 7:55 a.m. Eastern time, to tell him: “He’ll talk about his grades”

Epstein replied a minute later: “what privilege stands behind the none release of college transcripts?”

And that he may have influenced her questions: 

Hes opened the door to questions re who are the other henchmen at trump org,” Epstein texted Plaskett at 12:25 p.m.

“Yup. Very aware and waiting my turn,” she responded.

When Plaskett questioned Cohen during the hearing, she asked about Trump associates that he had mentioned previously.

“Are there other people that we should be meeting with?” Plaskett asked.

“So Allen Weisselberg is the chief financial officer in The Trump Organization,” Cohen began to reply.

“You’ve got to quickly give us as many names as you can so we can get to them,” Plaskett interjected. “Is Ms. Rhona, what is Ms. Rhona’s— …?”

“Rhona Graff is the — Mr. Trump’s executive assistant … She was — her office is directly next to his, and she’s involved in a lot that went on,” Cohen replied.

So Jeffrey Epstein was live-texting a Democrat lawmaker during a 'get Trump' hearing. Right...

All Trump has to do at this point, after apologizing to MTG and Thomas Massie (WTF) of course, is admit he was buddies with Epstein, say he didn't bang underage girls, and point to all the evidence Democrats just dropped that's blowing up in their faces. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 20:25

Obamacare Is A Disaster, Just As Expected

Zero Hedge -

Obamacare Is A Disaster, Just As Expected

Authored by Stephen Soukup via American Greatness,

Just over 15 years ago, when the Democrat-controlled House and the Democrat-controlled Senate were debating the healthcare proposals offered by the Democrat president, nearly everyone on the political right was unified in opposition. It may well have been the last time the right was united on anything, but it was indeed unified and resolute.

Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann (MN) warned that “This monstrosity of a bill will not only destroy the private healthcare market, it will lead to massive increases in premiums and rationed care.” Congressman (and eventual vice-presidential nominee and Speaker of the House) Paul Ryan (WI) complained that “This bill is a fiscal Frankenstein. It’s a government takeover that will explode costs and kill jobs.” Senator (and Republican Leader) Mitch McConnell (KY) insisted that Americans “want reforms that lower costs, not a trillion-dollar government experiment.”

Right-leaning commentators like George Will and Charles Krauthammer agreed, not only with each other but with Republicans in Congress as well. Krauthammer, in particular, argued that President Obama’s promise to “bend the cost curve” down was pure, unadulterated, and extensively documented fantasy. National Review, much maligned among Trump supporters these days, dedicated most of an issue to exposing and forecasting Obamacare’s fiscal absurdities and the likelihood that it would result in lower quality of care, increased taxes, and exploding insurance premiums. Even the Heritage Foundation—in the news lately for purportedly exacerbating rifts in the conservative coalition—likewise agreed with everyone in the movement, insisting that Obamacare was a disaster waiting to happen and would keep none of the promises that it made, all while destroying what was good and valuable in the private insurance market.

More than a decade later, when it was clear that the system was in trouble and that only greater government intervention and spending could save it, Heritage (in the form of Robert Moffit, Edmund Haislmaier, and Nina Owcharenko Schaefer) took something of a victory lap, detailing Obamacare’s manifest failures and arguing that it was long past time to scrap the whole experiment.

“The facts,” the Heritage analysts noted, “are in.”

  • The ACA dramatically increased health insurance premiums and cost-sharing in the individual market….

  • The ACA collapsed insurer competition in the nation’s individual markets….

  • The ACA failed to meet official enrollment targets in the individual markets….

  • The ACA is pricing middle-class Americans out of individual market coverage….

  • The ACA expanded government coverage while wrecking the private individual health insurance market….

  • The ACA compromised access to care for persons—including those with preexisting medical conditions—enrolled in the nation’s individual markets….

  • The ACA failed—and failed miserably—to attract young people into the exchange insurance pools….

  • The ACA Medicaid expansion prioritizes able-bodied adults, many of whom are working, over the elderly, the disabled, and poor women and children….

  • The ACA did not, as predicted, “bend the curve” of America’s healthcare spending….

  • The ACA’s vaunted delivery reforms did not yield the anticipated savings.

Everything Republicans warned would happen did happen. And the Democrats’ response was to offer a massive “temporary” increase in subsidies to help paper over the failures. Again, every sentient person in the country insisted that doing so would be a disaster, that the subsidies would only increase costs, and that they would not be temporary.

The Democrats didn’t listen, however. They didn’t listen in 2009 and 2010 when Congress initially debated and then passed Obamacare—without a single Republican vote in either house. They didn’t listen in 2020, when they insisted they needed expanded subsidies to address the financial hardships created by COVID-19. They didn’t listen in 2023, when they extended the COVID-era subsidies as part of the inaptly named Inflation Reduction Act, at a cost of $64 billion. And they’re still not listening now. Indeed, they just engineered the longest shutdown in American government history because they have no intention of ever listening or ever admitting that perhaps the right was absolutely spot-on in its predictions about Obamacare.

Worse still, in addition to sticking their fingers in their ears and ignoring the experiences of the last decade and a half, the Democrats are actually blaming the Republicans for all of the healthcare system’s problems, insisting that the GOP is somehow responsible for their delusions. As Senator Bernie Sanders, the ideological spirit animal of today’s Democrats, put it, “This government shutdown is all about whether Republicans will get away with raising healthcare premiums by 75% for 20 million Americans and throwing 15 million people off their healthcare.”

Over the years, countless conservative commentators have played upon the famous line in the movie “Love Story,” arguing that “being a liberal means never having to say you’re sorry.” More accurately, they would note that being a liberal/leftist/statist means never having to say you were wrong or admit that your utopian dreams were, in reality, nightmares. This is a feature, not a bug, of leftism. Just as today’s young leftists insist that communism can work, despite its many high-profile and bloody failures, because “real communism has never been tried,” so the Democrats insist that Obamacare can work if it’s tweaked and adjusted in just the right ways.

Although Jean-Jacques Rousseau shares the title “father of the modern left” with many of his Enlightenment contemporaries, he clearly did more than most to undermine and destroy the existing social and political orders and to discombobulate the West. As Nietzsche argued, Rousseau was “the greatest revolutionizing force of the modern era.”

Rousseau did not believe in the concept of Original Sin and insisted that the very idea was invented to keep man oppressed, silenced, and miserable under the thumb of society’s imperfect institutions. “Everything is good as it comes from the hands of the creator,” he wrote in the opening pages of Emile, but “everything degenerates in the hands of man.”

As a result, Rousseau and his followers saw society’s institutions as the foremost threat to man’s freedom and happiness. If man is good by nature, yet he behaves poorly under the direction and guidance of specific institutions, then the institutions, by definition, must be corrupt. They are clearly the cause of the aberrant behavior and must, therefore, be reformed—as thoroughly and as frequently as necessary to enable man to live as he should in a collective society. As the historian Paul Johnson noted in his Intellectuals, to Rousseau, society or “culture” was an “evolving, artificial construct….” But it nevertheless “dictated man’s behavior,” meaning that “you could improve, indeed totally transform, his behavior by changing the culture and the competitive forces, which produced it…” In short, according to Rousseau, one can change the world by successfully changing its institutions—over and over and over again, until you get it right, without ever having to say you’re sorry for getting it wrong.

Normal people, of course, think that the institutions created by Obamacare are destructive, costly, and ultimately ineffective. And we know they believe this because so many of them said so before the system was ever put in place. The Democrats disagree, and they will not be dissuaded from their course by any appeals to theory or experience. They want to keep the institutions and keep reforming them until they inevitably find the right formula.

They’ll get it right next time. Trust them. Oh, and in the meantime, pony up.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 19:50

Redistricting Could Determine 2026 Elections: Here's What Each State Is Doing

Zero Hedge -

Redistricting Could Determine 2026 Elections: Here's What Each State Is Doing

Authored by Jackson Richman and Joseph Lord via The Epoch Times,

The future control of the U.S. House of Representatives hangs in the balance as states move to redistrict their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.

A spate of redistricting efforts began earlier this year when Texas approved a map that would grow Republicans’ control of the state’s House delegation. California then responded in kind, approving a map to increase Democrats’ control by the same margins.

Since then, a flurry of other states have finalized redistricting, are moving toward doing so, or are considering proposals.

As things stand, Republicans enjoy a slight advantage, standing to gain three more seats than Democrats.

Here’s a breakdown of which states have been doing what, how the math works, the local legal challenges and politics, and what it might mean for the midterms.

States That Have Redistricted Their Maps Texas

The Lone Star State added five new Republican-leaning districts in response to a letter from the Department of Justice alleging that some districts in the state were unconstitutionally drawn by grouping minorities into a majority. President Donald Trump signaled his support for the state’s redistricting.

The redistricting was not without a battle, though. State Democrats at one point left Texas to prevent a quorum in the state legislature.

The new map prompted Rep. Lloyd Doggett, a Democrat, to announce his retirement.

SEAT CHANGE: R+5

California

Voters approved a ballot measure on Nov. 4 to counter Texas’s changes, adding five new Democratic-leaning districts in line with a request from California Gov. Gavin Newsom.

The measure, Proposition 50, garnered 64.6 percent support from the state electorate.

Proposition 50 is the subject of a lawsuit by the California Republican Party. The Department of Justice has joined the suit.

SEAT CHANGE: D+5

Missouri

A newly drawn map in the state could help the GOP pick up an additional seat.

Gov. Mike Kehoe signed off on the new map in September after the state legislature approved it.

“Missourians are more alike than we are different, and our values, across both sides of the aisle, are closer to each other than those of the congressional representation of states like New York, California, and Illinois,” he said at the time.

The seat targeted belongs to Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.).

The St. Louis seat, held by Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.), is protected under the Voting Rights Act.

SEAT CHANGE: R+1

North Carolina

Likewise, North Carolina’s new map—approved by the legislature in October—could give the GOP an additional seat.

Although the state has voted for Trump and Republicans in most elections in recent years, North Carolina is often considered a swing state.

Currently, the GOP controls 10 of the state’s 14 congressional seats.

Only one of those seats, held by Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), is a potential target. Gov. Josh Stein, a Democrat, did not have the power to veto the new map.

SEAT CHANGE: R+1

Utah

After a judge struck down the map created by Republicans after the 2020 census, the Beehive State created a new Salt Lake City-based competitive seat for Democrats.

Currently, the state’s four congressional districts are split between Salt Lake City and the outlying rural areas. Redistricting would dilute the congressional map and its lines.

Republicans are planning to appeal the decision to the Utah Supreme Court. Former Rep. Ben McAdams (D-Utah) could run for the seat.

SEAT CHANGE: D+1

States Considering Redistricting Their Maps Colorado

Democrat gubernatorial candidate Phil Weiser, currently the Centennial State’s attorney general, expressed support for a possible constitutional amendment, which would need to be voted on by voters.

Colorado has become increasingly a safe Democratic state, with Republicans having last won the state in the 2004 election.

It is unknown which districts would be targeted, though Colorado’s congressional delegation includes four Republicans: Reps. Lauren Boebert, Jeff Crank, Jeff Hurd, and Gabe Evans.

Florida

In the Sunshine State, a special committee has been formed to take up the redistricting issue.

Gov. Ron DeSantis has expressed approval for redistricting.

“I think the state is malapportioned,” he said. “So I do think it would be appropriate to do a redistricting in the mid-decade. So we’re working through what that would look like, but I can tell you, just look at how the population has shifted in different parts of the state over a four-to-five-year period. It’s been really significant.”

Florida has shifted politically in recent years, moving from a swing state in presidential elections to a solidly Republican state.

Currently, Republicans control 20 of the state’s 28 congressional districts.

Illinois

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) has urged Democrats in the Land of Lincoln to redraw the district map.

“We are going to support efforts to make sure that there are fair maps all across the country in the face of what Republicans are endeavoring to do,” he told reporters, accusing Republicans of gerrymandering.

Gov. JB Pritzker has said that all options are on the table. This could include potentially changing Republican districts to include larger portions of blue-leaning Chicago.

In the Democrat-dominated state, Republicans hold three of the state’s 17 congressional seats.

New York

Democrat state lawmakers have suggested a constitutional amendment that would need to be approved twice by the legislature and then by voters.

Gov. Kathy Hochul has expressed support for redistricting in the solidly Democratic state.

“All’s fair in love and war. We’re following the rules. We do redistricting every 10 years,” she said. “But if there’s other states violating the rules and are trying to give themselves an advantage, all I’ll say is, I’m going to look at it closely with Hakeem Jeffries.”

Democrats currently control 19 of the state’s 26 congressional districts.

Louisiana

Lawmakers are facing court challenges to Louisiana’s current map, approved in January 2024.

Some voters brought suit against the map, claiming it violates the Voting Rights Act. The status of this challenge is in limbo as lawmakers await the federal Supreme Court’s decision, but steps have been taken to push back primary elections in case the maps need to be redrawn.

Democrats hold two of the state’s six congressional seats.

Maryland

On Nov. 4, Gov. Wes Moore launched the Governor’s Redistricting Advisory Commission to consider redrawing the state’s maps in favor of Democrats.

However, the push has faced challenges in the state Legislature, with the Democratic state Senate president rejecting the notion outright.

Rep. Andy Harris is the state’s sole Republican member.

States Moving to Redistrict Their Maps Virginia

Following the 2025 elections, Democrats in Virginia now have a clear path to move forward with redistricting efforts in the commonwealth to favor Democratic candidates.

Gov.-elect Abigail Spanberger will enter office in January with control of the governor’s mansion, a Democratic lieutenant governor and attorney general, and 64 Democratic seats in the state’s House of Delegates.

Democrats already hold the Senate, where seats weren’t on the ballot in 2025.

Currently, Democrats control six of the state’s 11 congressional districts.

Ohio

On Oct. 31, the Ohio Redistricting Commission unanimously gave the green light to a new congressional district map put forward by the state’s GOP majority.

The new maps, if finalized, could increase the number of Republicans in the state’s congressional delegation from 10 to 12.

Ohio was legally required to change its maps ahead of the 2026 election because the previous maps were only valid for four years, given that they had failed to win bipartisan support following the 2020 census.

Democrats see the current map under consideration as their best option to avoid a potentially worse outcome.

States That Have Ruled It Out Kansas

After pushing for months to bring Republican lawmakers on board with redrawing Kansas’s congressional maps, a push for a special session was abandoned on Nov. 4.

Republicans failed to garner enough support among state House Republicans to redraw the maps, which currently give Republicans 3 seats to 1 for Democrats.

House Speaker Dan Hawkins announced that there were not enough votes in the state’s lower chamber to warrant convening a special session in November, meaning that the issue has, at least for the time being, been ruled out in the state.

Nebraska

Although Gov. Jim Pillen has said he’s “open” to redrawing the maps, lawmakers in Nebraska’s state legislature don’t share his stance.

Such a redraw would doubtless seek to shore up GOP support in outgoing Rep. Don Bacon’s (R-Neb.) Omaha-based district. But at present, there is too much GOP opposition in the state’s unicameral legislature to move forward with any such bid.

At present, any push to redraw the state’s maps seems to have far less than the 33 votes that would be needed to overcome a potential filibuster.

New Hampshire

Gov. Kelly Ayotte has said now is not the time to redistrict.

“The timing is off for this, because we are literally in the middle of the census period,” she said in an interview with WMUR. “And when I talk to people in New Hampshire ... it’s not on the top of their priority list.”

Though Republicans have enjoyed victories on a local level in New Hampshire, the New England swing state has consistently voted with its neighbors in favor of the Democratic Party at the federal level.

Democrats currently control the state’s two congressional districts as well as the state’s two Senate seats.

Indiana

The Trump administration’s efforts to persuade Indiana to redraw its maps hit a major roadblock on Nov. 14. State Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray said in a statement that the votes are not there to change the Hoosier State’s congressional map.

“Over the last several months, Senate Republicans have given very serious and thoughtful consideration to the concept of redrawing our state’s congressional maps,” he said. “Today, I’m announcing there are not enough votes to move that idea forward, and the Senate will not reconvene in December.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 18:40

October Foreclosure Filings Jump 20% YoY

Zero Hedge -

October Foreclosure Filings Jump 20% YoY

Last month we noted that US foreclosure filings jumped 17% in Q3 of 2025 vs. Q3 2024, with Florida, Nevada, South Carolina, Illinois and Delaware leading the pack, based on research by ATTOM. 

Now, ATTOM is reporting a 20% monthly spike in October vs. 2024 - marking the eighth straight month of YoY increases. 

Breaking it down:

  • There were 36,766 US properties with some type of foreclosure filing in October, which include notices of default, scheudled auctions, or bank repossessions - a 3% rise over September of this year, and a 19% jump vs. Oct. 2024.
  • Foreclosure starts - the initial phase of the process, were up 6% vs. September and were 20% higher than October 2024
  • Completed foreclosures - the final phase, jumped 32% YoY for October

That said, Attom CEO Rober Barber doesn't think it's a big deal.

"Even with these increases, activity remains well below historic highs. The current trend appears to reflect a gradual normalization in foreclosure volumes as market conditions adjust and some homeowners continue to navigate higher housing and borrowing costs," said Barber. 

Similar to last month's report, Florida, South Carolina and Illinois led the nation in state foreclosure filings. City-wise, the following metro areas led the pack:

  • Tampa, FL
  • Jacksonville, FL
  • Orlando, FL
  • Riverside, CA
  • Cleveland, OH

When it comes to completed foreclosures, Texas, California and Florida had the most - suggesting that those states will see more inventory available for sale at distressed prices. As CNBC notes, there's strong demand for houses in these price ranges, so it's likely that those foreclosed properties won't last long on the market. 

Putting things in perspective

All of the above translates to less than 0.5% of mortgages in foreclosure. At the peak of the Great Recession, over 4% of mortgages were in foreclosure - so we have a ways to go, and are currently well below the historic average of between 1% and 1.5%. 

Also right now, 4% of mortgages are delinquent, which as 12% at the peak of the financial crisis.

What is concerning are FHA loans: 

"So, no foreclosure tsunami to worry about," said  Rick Sharga, CEO of CJ Patrick Co., a real estate market intelligence firm. "That said, there are a few areas of concern. [Federal Housing Administration] delinquencies are over 11%, and account for 52% of all seriously delinquent loans; we’re likely to see more FHA loans in foreclosure in 2026." 

Sharga also pointed out that states which are experiencing falling home prices with rising insurance premiums are seeing an uptick in defaults

At the end of the day, in most major metros - anyone looking to buy a home is still better off renting that same home for a fraction of the mortgage, property tax, and maintenance - with the wildcard of course being the potential for capital appreciation. 

Update: As ZeroHedge reader Montana Cowboy notes in the comments below - it's even worse than that...

The real problem arrives when the lender becomes the owner. This happens when the lender's demand exceeds the highest bid.

A foreclosure is not automatically a process where the lender becomes the owner. A foreclosure is a forced public sale. The lender makes the first bid for the amount owed, which includes missed payments, unpaid property tax, forced insurance, foreclosure costs, and other costs. It typically comes to about 110% of the loan balance but can dramatically exceed that amount if the lender stalls. If there is no cash buyer for that total amount, the lender is the highest bidder and becomes the owner. 

The fun really starts when the lender becomes the owner. GAAP and FAFSA accounting rules permit that lender to hide the loss by presuming the value of the property exceeds the lender's investment. Once the lender re-sells that property, there is no way to hide the loss on the lender's books. This is why lenders delay foreclosures, sometimes for years. They don't want to start the process because they know where it ends. It gets worse if the market is declining. Foreclosures accelerate that decline by increasing supply.

The foreclosures reflected in the article do not account for loans in trouble where the initial step of foreclosure (a Notice of Default) is being deliberately delayed. Things are much worse than this article shows.

Let's Compare

Take a $2.2 million home in San Diego, for example... Someone with excellent credit will pay $13,859 per month when you include taxes, HOA, and home insurance, and cough up $439,000 for the 20% down payment. 

If interest rates drop to 4%, you're still paying $11,480 per month...

Meanwhile, this almost identically sized house around the corner (literally) rents for $6,200 / month -  which is $7,659 less per month than the mortgage (or $91,908 less per year) and includes a landlord to pay for that broken washing machine or whatever, plus you can bail when the neighbor kid drops a 2000W stereo in his Acura you can hear from 3 blocks away coming home from his Drakkar Noir-drenched attempt to get laid in the Gaslamp (did not get laid).

Either way you're paying for a McMansion on a postage stamp.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 18:05

From Nukes To AI-Powered Drones: Saudi Arabia's MbS Bringing Wishlist To D.C. Next Week

Zero Hedge -

From Nukes To AI-Powered Drones: Saudi Arabia's MbS Bringing Wishlist To D.C. Next Week

Via Middle East Eye

Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman wants a defense deal that outshines Qatar’s, AI chips and AI-powered drones, and potentially, American nuclear weapons stationed in his country.

The wishlist reveals the confidence of a leader who arrives in Washington on Monday, having withstood pressure to normalize ties with Israel amid alleged genocide in Gaza. Then over the summer, he emerged unscathed, if not relatively stronger, by sitting out a direct war between Israel and Iran. On the opposite side of the aisle is a US president willing to put up his country's crown jewels for negotiation: nuclear and AI technology.

The success of the crown prince's visit will be a reflection of President Donald Trump’s core instinct to bypass the American security establishment’s concerns about China and safeguarding US technology in exchange for racking up foreign sales from one of the world’s few major economies that has the cash at hand, despite stretched budgets, to splash big. 

There was a time when Middle Eastern leaders came to the White House to discuss deals that basically just kept Boeing and Lockheed Martin humming. The shah of Iran, with his encyclopedic knowledge of weapons systems, was notorious for such visits. But experts say Mohammed bin Salman’s sophisticated shopping list reflects his view of a much more mature and forward-thinking kingdom.

"MBS is not looking for cooperation in a single area, but to strengthen US-Saudi cooperation in the long term. That is a two-way flow of technology and trade," Ayham Kamel, Middle East president at Edelman Public and Government Affairs, told Middle East Eye.

“Saudi Arabia still wants to be part of a multipolar world order, but it is pivoting to take advantage of its closeness to Trump,” he added. 

Nukes and defense agreement

One of the areas to watch, experts say, is a Saudi push to be included under the US’s nuclear umbrella. Days after Israel attacked Hamas negotiators in Qatar, Saudi Arabia signed a defence pact with Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed state in the Muslim world. Pakistan is estimated to possess around 170 nuclear warheads. Saudi and Pakistani descriptions of the deal said it encompassed all military options.

The Americans’ nuclear talks with Saudi Arabia have been kept under tight wraps, but one former US intelligence official said the idea of extending protection to the kingdom could serve a purpose.

“It would pull them [the Saudis] out of the Pakistanis’ nuclear umbrella and make the Saudis feel better than the Qataris,"  he said. "I think we should look for some language next week that points to Saudi Arabia being linked to the US nuclear arsenal," the former official said.

MEE reported previously that the Trump administration gave its approval for the Israeli attack on Qatar. The decision discredited the decades-old foundation of the US's status as the security guarantor of the oil-rich region.

But for Saudi Arabia, that image started to fray as early as 2019 when Iran attacked its Aramco oil facilities. The first Trump administration refused to retaliate against Tehran or its allies, the Houthis, whom Saudi Arabia was fighting at the time. "The memory of September 2019…still looms large," Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi defence analyst in Riyadh, said at an event hosted by the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington on Wednesday.

In a bid to mend ties with Doha after the Israeli attack, Trump signed an executive order that guarantees Qatar’s security and says the US will regard any attack on the Gulf state as a threat to its own “peace and security”. Few officials in Washington or the Gulf put much stock in the pledge. Unlike the US’s treaty commitments to Japan and South Korea, executive orders can be revoked at any time, and incoming governments may not honour them. 

Experts say Saudi Arabia wants something stronger, with the knowledge that it will not get a Senate ratified treaty. "Riyadh is not seeking symbolic protection. It wants a credible and clear defense arrangement. Not MOUs with no action plan. Something more than the partial offers the kingdom is getting now," Alghannam added.

Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman and national security adviser Musaad al-Aiban were in Washington earlier this week to iron out the potential defense pledge. Before he has even landed in Washington, one of the successes of the crown prince's visit has been the Saudi’s ability to disentangle bilateral deals with the US from Israel, experts say. 

The US and Saudi Arabia had been discussing a Senate ratified defence treaty as part of a quid pro quo for Riyadh to normalize ties with Israel.

Before Trump visited the kingdom in May, Saudi Arabia had pre-negotiated the talking points to make sure normalisation was not on the agenda, MEE was the first to reveal. Despite a fragile ceasefire holding in Gaza now, and Trump’s claim that Riyadh will normalise ties with Israel before the year’s end, western and Arab diplomats tell MEE that Saudi Arabia is just as reluctant to return to those discussions.

In addition to a ceasefire, the kingdom wants to see steps towards the creation of an independent Palestinian state, something Israel is loath to agree on.

Can Saudi Arabia enrich uranium?

Saudi Arabia and the US were also in talks about reaching an agreement on civilian nuclear energy as part of a reward for Riyadh to establish ties with Israel.

Those talks are still on - even if normalization is off the agenda. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright visited Saudi Arabia in the spring to discuss cooperation in nuclear technology.

While Trump considers the Abraham Accords a key success of his foreign policy, he is also seeking business deals. The allure of US companies like Westinghouse and Bechtel, which build nuclear reactors and the infrastructure to support them, profiting from a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, may be enough to overcome sidelining Israel, experts say.

In 2009, the UAE signed a so-called 123 agreement by which they promised not to enrich uranium in order to receive US permission to start a civilian nuclear program.

The crown prince and his advisors have pushed for a deal that will allow them to enrich uranium, which they say the kingdom holds vast reserves of. "We will enrich it and we will sell it and we will do a ‘yellowcake'," Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said at the start of the year, referring to a step in the process that comes after mining, but before enrichment.

"Not enriching would be a major concession by the Saudis. It’s an economic issue because the Saudis know they can make more money off their uranium by enriching themselves instead of exporting it. But it is also a matter of national pride. The question is, if they don’t enrich, what is their pay-off from Trump?" a Saudi-based analyst told MEE.

Bernard Haykel, a professor at Princeton, said at the Arab Gulf States Institute event that the trade-off could be nuclear weapons. "I suspect for now that they will give up on enrichment and processing, but they will want a nuclear umbrella protection from the US," Haykel said. "Which may involve the deployment of US nuclear weapons systems on Saudi soil."

Gregory Gause, a visiting scholar at the Middle East Institute think tank in Washington, told MEE: "Historically, we have had nuclear weapons stationed all over the place. It doesn’t require Congress to approve the stationing of nuclear weapons in Saudi Arabia."

"We also have nuclear-armed submarines that can go anywhere in the world. Trump could just say we will commit to nuclear-armed submarines patrolling the Indian Ocean."

Will Saudi Arabia get F-35s?

Saudi Arabia is bringing 1,000 officials on 18 planes to Washington for the visit, a US official briefed on the preparations told MEE. Monday will mark the first time since 2018 that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will visit the White House.

Seven months after that trip, he ordered the killing of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, triggering a torrent of criticism by human rights groups and former US President Joe Biden when he was campaigning for office. Riyadh’s ties to the US were strained during the Biden administration’s early days, but by 2022, they recovered, in part because the US needed Saudi energy after it sanctioned Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman emerged from that rupture in a much stronger position. He sought a truce with the Houthis in Yemen and has patched up ties with Iran. The crown prince moved out of isolation long ago. This visit, experts say, is about consolidating the raft of deals that the US and Saudi Arabia committed to when Trump visited the Gulf in May. 

The two announced $142bn in defense sales. At the time, MEE revealed that F-35s, stealthy fifth-generation fighter jets, were part of the prospective agreement. Reuters reported last week that the sale could include up to 48 F-35s.

Some US and Israeli officials have been concerned about the sale for months, as MEE and others have reported. Israel is the only country in the Middle East to operate the F-35, which it views as a key part of its qualitative military edge against its neighbours.

Plans to sell F-35s to the UAE as part of its establishment of diplomatic ties to Israel stalled during the Biden administration over concerns that China could gain access to the technology. US officials have been raising those concerns about Saudi Arabia for months also, current and former US officials tell MEE.

Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace expert at Aerodynamic Advisory, said if the deal went through, they wouldn’t start getting deliveries until three or four years from now, as they would be behind several European countries that have already placed orders.Aboulalafia said concerns about maintaining Israel’s qualitative edge have been a perennial issue in warplane sales to Saudi Arabia.

In the 1990s, the US sold the kingdom F-15S strike eagle warplanes with downgraded radars and inferior electronics countermeasures, in part to appease pro-Israel lobbying groups. "The Israelis will be a little concerned, but usually, that is addressed because Israel gets technological rights to enhance their stuff, that the Saudis do not get," Aboulalafia said.

"The F-35 is also, to a far greater extent than any other aircraft, vulnerable to a kill switch," he added, meaning that the US can remotely disable the warplanes.

Israel itself has pioneered advancements on the F-35 with the US’s support. Israel modified its version of the warplane, the F-35I Adir, to carry external fuel compartments without compromising on its stealthy features, MEE reported. That modification allowed Israel to fly the F-35s thousands of miles round-trip to Iran, without refuelling, during its surprise attack on Iran in June.

Alghannam, the Saudi analyst, told the Arab Gulf States Institute that this is the kind of cooperation, what he called “the localisation of content”, is what Saudi Arabia is really seeking from Trump. He said, “without US assistance”, Saudi Arabia’s state-owned weapons manufacturer, Saudi Arabian Military Industries, could not become a “serious” player in the industry.

Drones to data centres: Saudi Arabia's AI agenda 

In addition to F-35s, the US and Saudi Arabia have been discussing the sale of hundreds of MQ-9 Reaper drones. However, defense industry insiders and officials say that the kingdom is becoming more selective, and the space to watch for deals during this visit is with smaller defense players.

Saudi Arabia has been in talks with Shield AI, a US start-up whose AI-supported V-Bat drone is operating in Ukraine. The company is also working on a so-called vertical takeoff drone that carries both air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons.

"Riyadh is a big area of interest," one person briefed on the discussions told MEE. "The Saudis are looking at mid-sized drones. They want Collaborative Combat Aircraft that can fly alongside warplanes, and they want drones suitable for maritime surveillance."

Like its smaller neighbor, the UAE, Saudi Arabia is also eying American AI chips. In May, Nvidia announced plans to sell thousands of its advanced Blackwell chips to Humain, an AI firm owned by Saudi Arabia’s $1 trillion Public Investment Fund.

The kingdom is pitching itself as an AI hub with cut-rate electricity prices to power data centers. Humain is building data centres from Riyadh to Dammam, which it says will have 6.6 gigawatts of capacity by 2034. Saudi AI company Datavolt is building a $5bn data center on the kingdom’s Red Sea coast.

While AI deals were announced with fanfare during Trump’s visit to the kingdom in May, the delivery of chips has stalled, with no public announcements. Some US officials have raised concerns that China could gain access to the US’s AI technology in Saudi Arabia. The crown prince is expected to push for progress on the deals in Washington.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 17:30

Labor Demographer Issues Warning: College-Educated Oversupply Is Here

Zero Hedge -

Labor Demographer Issues Warning: College-Educated Oversupply Is Here

Goldman analysts led by Evan Tylenda published a note on emerging labor-market risks and how companies are adapting to aging demographics and shrinking labor pools.

One section stood out in particular: the widening mismatch between an oversupply of college-educated workers and a deepening shortage of talent for non-degree, hands-on jobs.

Tylenda and others on the team spoke with labor demographer Ron Hetrick, who outlined how the U.S. labor market is entering a structural slowdown driven by aging demographics, a falling birth rate, and weakening participation among older workers.

Hetrick outlined that baby boomers once supplied 65 million workers, but only 25 million remain, and no younger generation is large enough to replace them. 

He noted that BLS data show the workforce adding just 5.9 million workers by 2034, with nearly half of that coming from workers aged +65, even as participation among those +55 continues to decline.

Here's where things get spicyThis demographic squeeze is creating a skills imbalance: an oversupply of college-educated workers and a shortage of vocational and lower-skilled labor for non-degree jobs.

From the note:

  • Shortage of skilled / technical labor: The Demographic Dilemma and resulting labor shortages make automation and AI success essential while simultaneously threatening to constrain AI's physical scale-up via potential skilled labor shortages. The emerging bottlenecks lie in power generation, transmission and grid modernization, and upstream industries required for electrification and digitization such as manufacturing, and critical minerals mining and processing — industries with long project cycles, high regulatory friction, and limited talent mobility from displaced knowledge-worker pools.

  • Shortage of low-skilled labor in high turnover industries: where recent graduates and knowledge workers displaced by AI are imperfect fits. This is driving rising automation for low-skilled jobs, driven by rising costs, declining labor pools. For example, the U.S. added 4.5 mn workers with a college degree since 2019, while losing 800k workers without a degree. Automation in low-skilled roles (especially ones with repetition) has potential to help improve worker safety and pay for remaining workers, potentially driving lower employee turnover in the medium to long term.

We hosted Ron Hetrick, a labor demographer, to highlight the structural issues forming for labor markets in the U.S. coming from declining labor pools, particularly in lower skilled fields not requiring a degree. Mr. Hetrick sees mounting challenges for the aging and declining workforce in the U.S., with industries like Healthcare and Construction most exposed to disruption, driven by limited availability of labor solutions.

Companies adapting, and key solutions for addressing labor challenges. Corporates, across industries, are taking different measures to remedy risk of labor shortages, mainly around 1) Automation upgrades to boost productivity and consistency; 2) Retention efforts, including increased pay, better work conditions, enhanced benefits packages, providing childcare service etc.; and 3) Training & Upskilling through the expansion of their own training infrastructure and partnerships with external institutions.

ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the complete note in the usual spot. It's loaded with far more detail on the shifting labor market, a framework that's increasingly important to understand before the 2030s arrive. 

The most appropriate way to end the note is an epic quote by Palantir CEO Alex Karp:

The average Ivy League grad voting for this mayor is annoyed their education is not that valuable, and that the person who knows how to drill for oil has a more valuable profession.

I think that annoys the f*ck out of these people. 

These days, college is a woke indoctrination factory pumping out our purple-haired creatures who are confused about their gender and rave about Marxism.

College is not like it used to be. There is an oversupply of unproductive "woke" degrees. Don't be woke. Be productive, find a solid trade job that won't be automated into extinction by 2030, and start a family; this is one pathway for GenZers.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 16:55

All SNAP Beneficiaries Will Need To Reapply For Benefits: Agriculture Secretary

Zero Hedge -

All SNAP Beneficiaries Will Need To Reapply For Benefits: Agriculture Secretary

Authored by T.J.Muscaro via The Epoch Times,

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins suggested on Nov. 14 that everyone registered for the federal government’s Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits should reapply as a result of ongoing fraud discoveries.

At least, that is what she said when she shared what the Trump administration was planning to enact during her appearance on Newsmax’s “Rob Schmitt Tonight.”

“It’s going to give us a platform and a trajectory to fundamentally rebuild this program, have everyone reapply for their benefit, make sure that everyone that’s taking a taxpayer-funded benefit through SNAP or food stamps, that they literally are vulnerable, and they can’t survive without it,” she said.

This decision comes after Rollins disclosed on X that the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) discovered that nearly 200,000 deceased people across 29 states received benefits.

The remaining 21 states sued to keep their data from being disclosed, according to the post.

The states that chose not to cooperate were mostly Democratic-run states.

More than 500,000 people were registered twice, she revealed.

She also said that the program experienced a 40 percent increase under the Biden Administration.

About 42 million people, or one in eight Americans, use the federal food program, and they receive $177 per person per month, on average, according to the latest USDA data.

Rollins, in an earlier interview, said that 80 percent of people using the program were able to work and described SNAP as one of the “most corrupt, dysfunctional programs” in U.S. history.

Those who choose to reapply would have to verify that they could not survive without it, she said. She also argued that the cutoff of some SNAP benefits would also incentivize more illegal immigrants to self-deport.

“In just the states that cooperated, we’ve already uncovered massive fraud,” Rollins said on X at the beginning of November.

“The Democrat Party has turned its back on working Americans and built its entire strategy around protecting illegal aliens. They know if the handouts stop, those illegals will go back home, and Democrats will lose 20+ seats after the next census.”

“There’s a new sheriff in town. @POTUS will not tolerate waste, fraud, or abuse while hardworking Americans go hungry,” she wrote.

SNAP beneficiaries became a poignant topic after the USDA ran out of funding for the program during the record-long government shutdown. Distribution of benefits was ordered to resume immediately after President Donald Trump signed a continuing resolution to keep the federal government funded through the New Year.

“The reduction in maximum allotments for November is no longer in effect,” the USDA said on Nov. 13. “State agencies should immediately resume issuing combined allotments for November and December for newly certified applicants who apply after the 15th of the month.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 16:20

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3

Calculated Risk -

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Mortgage DelinquenciesTClick on graph for larger image.

MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in Q3 2025

Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2025

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in October

November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in October, Up 0.9% Year-over-year

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

Jan. 6 Panel Cost Twice Previous Estimates, Hiring TV Producers To Dramatize Attack

Zero Hedge -

Jan. 6 Panel Cost Twice Previous Estimates, Hiring TV Producers To Dramatize Attack

Authored by Mark Stricherz via The Center Square,

The U.S. House select committee that investigated the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol cost almost twice as much as previously reported, including spending taxpayer funds for TV news producers and documentary filmmakers to create videos dramatizing its case against President Donald Trump, an investigation by The Center Square found. 

The Washington Post reported that the panel had a projected budget of $9.3 million in September 2022. According to a review of U.S. House disbursements, the select committee spent $17.4 million.

U.S. Rep. Troy Nehls, a Texas Republican who is on a new committee appointed by House Speaker Mike Johnson to investigate security failures on Jan. 6, said the original committee didn’t spend taxpayer money properly after The Center Square told him about the final costs of the panel’s investigation. 

“They wasted it, wasted it,” he said walking into his House office Wednesday before referring to two former GOP members of the panel.

That was a sham committee. (Liz) Cheney. (Adam) Kinzinger. It was a joke.” 

Dan Savickas, president of policy and government affairs at the Taxpayers Protection Alliance, a non-partisan nonprofit, said more than doubling of the budget was not appropriate.

“The median budget for a House committee is $6 million a year, so for the Jan. 6 committee to spend $17.4 million is excessive,” he told The Center Square in an interview.

“And anytime a committee is grandstanding, specifically Jan. 6, to fit a narrative instead of holding people accountable and getting the story is bad. That’s why they hired documentary filmmakers.”

Rep. Bennie Thompson, a Mississippi Democrat and chair of the committee, declined an interview request.

“The work of the committee speaks for itself, and the chairman continues to stand by it,” Yasmine Brown, a press secretary and communications director, wrote in an email to The Center Square. 

An undetermined amount was spent on three dozen contractors and consultants. Many worked for a few months or less than a year, rather than all 18 months like full-time staff. They are listed in the committee’s report but do not show up in a list of expenditures the U.S. House posted online disclosing its spending.

Among them were the former president of ABC News, a longtime producer for ABC’s Nightline, an Emmy-award winning daily TV news producer, and a former documentarian for the Oprah Winfrey Network.  

“I was part of the first ever team of former television journalists brought in by the Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the United States Capitol to produce the historic live hearings laying out the committee’s evidence to the country,” Melinda Arons, a former Nightline senior producer, wrote on her LinkedIn page.  

Brian Sasser, an Emmy-award winning daily TV news producer, noted on his LinkedIn page that his job was to “(m)anage constantly evolving rundown and scripts for live hearings” of the select committee and to “(c)oordinate with various U.S. House staffers and Committee investigators to ensure accuracy of all scripting.” 

James Goldston worked for ABC News for 17 years, including more than one year as the senior executive producer for Good Morning America and seven years as its president, according to his LinkedIn page. Ryan Mayers said on his LinkedIn page that he has been a freelance filmmaker for seven years and edited the documentary and interview series Oprah’s Next Chapter for the Oprah Winfrey Network. 

Hyatt Mamoun described herself on LinkedIn as an award-winning filmmaker with a focus on environmental design. “With a passion for conservation through education, I believe that through educating as many people as possible through the entertainment of film, we can change our future,” she wrote.

Jan. 6 different from other committees

Previous committees and commissions examined the Watergate scandal in the early-to-mid 1970s, the Jonestown massacre of 1978, and the Islamic terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001. They hired or used only congressional staff, lawyers, and investigators.  

By contrast, the Jan. 6 committee hired more than congressional staff, lawyers, and investigators. They also hired freelancers with backgrounds in producing and editing graphics as well as video and audio footage – prominent features of the committee’s 10 nationally televised hearings from June to December 2022.

The committee’s records do not disclose the amount the panel paid for each freelancer. 

Among the contracting companies was Innovative Driven Inc., an Arlington, Virginia-based firm that specializes in forensics, electronic data discovery and project management. The privately held company received $2.4 million. A company spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment. 

Another recipient was Polar Solutions Inc., a Gaithersburg, Maryland-based investigative firm of money laundering and cryptocurrency crimes. The company received $2.7 million. Polar Solutions’ president, Arthur Ahrens, declined to comment when called by The Center Square. 

Full-time committee staffers received more money in personal and other compensation than regular members of Congress, a tradition in line with recent history. While rank-and-file members earn $174,000 a year, Timothy J. Heaphy, the committee’s chief investigative counsel, was paid almost $190,00 in personal and other compensation in 12 months.

Election results challenged

The committee was formed after former Vice President Joe Biden, a Democrat, defeated President Donald Trump, a Republican, in the 2020 election. With 44,000 votes separating the candidates in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, Trump contested the results. 

He claimed voting fraud and irregularities were responsible for his margin, but 62 of his 63 legal challenges failed in court. On Jan. 2, Trump called Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensberger to help him “find 11,780 votes” so he could be declared the winner in the Peach State. 

On January 6, 2021, the day Congress gathered at the Capitol to certify Biden the winner, Trump led a “Stop the Steal” rally at the Ellipse in Washington at which more than 28,000 people passed through security. 

More than 2,000 broke into the Capitol, including Ashli Babbitt, who was shot to death by a Capitol Police officer while attempting to break into the House floor. Capitol Police Officer Brian Sicknick collapsed and died one day after the attack, while four other police officers at the Capitol that day died of suicide half a year later. 

The violence represented a break with tradition in which presidents transfer power to their successor peacefully. On Jan. 7, 2021, Trump conceded he would not serve a consecutive second term. 

That June, the House of Representatives voted to create a select committee, to be composed of 11 members “to investigate and report on the causes, circumstances, and causes” of the violent attack.”

The panel was controversial from the start. 

Previous select committees had members selected by leaders from both parties. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a Republican, nominated five House Republicans. In a break with tradition, then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat, rejected two of the members. 

Instead of suggesting alternatives, McCarthy declined to cooperate. Pelosi, then, chose two Republicans as replacements, Reps. Liz Cheney of Wyoming and Adam Kinzinger of Illinois. Both were outspoken critics of Trump for his conduct on Jan. 6.  

The other seven members of the nine-member panel were Democrats. The committee hired more than 60 full-time staff members, many with backgrounds in intelligence and investigations, and conducted more than 1,000 interviews in 18 months. 

Among the committee’s findings was that White House lawyers and senior Department of Justice officials told Trump early on that his claims of election fraud were baseless.

“From the beginning, Donald Trump’s fraud allegations were concocted nonsense, designed to prey upon the patriotism of millions of men and women who love our country,” the report concluded.

In addition, the committee found that Trump’s effort to overturn the election was multi-layered. He worked with a “handful of others” to prepare Trump slates of Trump electors in seven states that Biden won. He raised roughly $250 million between the election and Jan. 6 to support his claims. And as the attack on the Capitol unfolded, Trump watched the violence on television and did not tell his supporters to desist for 187 minutes.

Police without “sufficient assets”

At the same time, the Jan. 6 select committee was different from the Senate Watergate Committee of 1973 and 1974 and the 9-11 Commission, and not just because the panel hired contractors and consultants with backgrounds in television.

The panel also examined only one part of that day and the events leading up to it – the role of Trump, his administration, and supporters. In its report, the panel concluded Trump was “the central cause” of an attempted insurrection. 

In addition, the committee referred four criminal charges against Trump to the Department of Justice. While the Justice Department convicted more than 900 people for their actions on Jan. 6, special counsel Jack Smith was unable to prosecute Trump after Trump won the presidential election last year, bowing to longstanding department custom to not prosecute a sitting president. 

Further, the Jan. 6 committee devoted less attention to the role of federal, state, and local law enforcement in failing to deter or stop the attack. 

“Capitol police leadership did not have sufficient assets in place to address the violent and lawless crowd,” the report concluded.  

The committee’s conclusion has come into question.  

In an op-ed for Politico in January 2023, Georgetown Professor Donell Harvin, who oversaw the District of Columbia’s assessment of threat intelligence, wrote that “(t)he events of Jan. 6 represented the most telegraphed and predictable attack on the homeland in history.” Further, Harvin noted that the committee devoted only 44 pages in the annexes to the security and intelligence issues, roughly 5% of the 845-page report. 

In 2022, Denver L. Riggleman, a former GOP U.S. representative with a background in military intelligence, wrote in Esquire magazine that the committee group in charge of investigating law enforcement’s response, known as the “Blue team,” occupied a lower place in the panel’s pecking order. 

“The sensitivity of their investigation and the multiple moving parts – House leadership, the National Guard, DC and Capitol police, and the Pentagon – created a politically explosive finger-pointing extravaganza,” Riggleman wrote.

“Several witnesses they tried to interview remained elusive, and the committee gave Blue no means to compel testimony.” 

Riggleman received at least $97,047 in personal and other compensation as a senior technical advisor to the committee for 10 months, House spending data shows. 

A February 2023 study from the General Accountability Office concluded that the attack on the Capitol cost taxpayers $2.7 billion. Most of the costs were for Capitol police and other law enforcement.  

In September, House Speaker Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, named eight members – five Republicans, three Democrats – to a select subcommittee under the authority of the House Judiciary Committee to “conduct a thorough review of the security failures that occurred on Jan. 6.”

The subcommittee’s chairman, U.S. Rep. Barry Loudermilk, a Georgia Republican, declined comment. Kinzinger, Cheney and other members of the committee did not respond to The Center Square’s requests for comment.

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 12:50

US Utility Giants Discuss Soaring Power Bills, Grid Reforms In The Data-Center Era

Zero Hedge -

US Utility Giants Discuss Soaring Power Bills, Grid Reforms In The Data-Center Era

Readers were given an epic breakdown on Wednesday detailing the true scale of funding needed for the AI data-center boom, one that would require an estimated $5 trillion in investment, with Washington on the hook for at least $1 trillion of it. In a separate note, we highlighted an inconvenient truth for this cycle: the U.S. is short 44 nuclear power plants.

Power is the obvious bottleneck that could derail the entire AI boom cycle. We now turn to Goldman analysts led by Carly Davenport for deeper insight into what electric companies are saying about the grid's current structure, data center demand, load growth, the power-bill crisis, and other critical topics discussed at the EEI Financial Conference in Hollywood, Florida, earlier this week.

Davenport told clients that sentiment across the utilities sector was broadly constructive, driven by optimism about accelerating load growth, expanding capital spending plans, and a stronger earnings outlook heading into 2026. She noted investors are increasingly focused on identifying which utilities have downside protection tied to data-center growth and which are proactively addressing labor, supply-chain, and affordability constraints.

Conversations during the meetings highlighted growing bullishness toward NextEra Energy and Sempra, while near-term political and regulatory developments remain key issues for Public Service Enterprise Group, Southern Company, and PG&E Corp.

Here's a breakdown of the top ten takeaways Davenport had from EEI:

  1. Focus on inflections in regulatory backdrops. Several utilities are experiencing significant state-level policy shifts and ongoing rate case activities. In New Jersey, the upcoming transition to Governor-elect Sherrill's administration and anticipated changes within the BPU are topical. PEG is preparing to leverage mechanisms such as utilizing ZECs to help alleviate customer bills, aligning with the new administration's focus. EXC expects its NJ rate case at ACE to be on track for year-end 2025, and FE noted that clarity on BPU composition will be key ahead of upcoming rate case filings at JCP&L. Elsewhere, ES is focused on securing regulatory approvals for its Aquarion sale and storm cost securitization in CT from a newly composed PURA. Sentiment is growing more constructive on a positive shift in balanced collaboration between utilities and regulators in the state. Finally, SO noted 2026 could be noisy from a state-wide elections standpoint, but with a relatively quiet regulatory calendar, the company plans to actively engage with newly elected commissioners on utility economics and affordability.

  2. Still room for positive capex revisions into 4Q earnings, with focus on financing options. SRE anticipates significant capital plan upside at Oncor, highlighting opportunities around an incremental ~$12 bn on top of the preliminary 30% increase to the current five-year plan, driven by accelerated Permian transmission projects and substantial data center load growth, with a definitive update pending the ongoing rate case outcome. DUK has previewed a robust $95-105 bn capital plan, with an expected update next quarter, and sees the $10 bn upside range driven by LNG solutions and transmission investments, while exploring numerous options around financing, including private credit for specific projects. XEL targets a 9% EPS CAGR through 2030, and has identified significant upside around both generation and transmission, with resource plans pointing to a potential $16-20 bn (though XEL targets 50% ownership of assets) and over $10 bn for transmission projects. FE benefits from the PJM open window, with three identified projects on the RTEP short list totaling approximately $3 bn in potential capital expenditures, in addition to growth opportunities in West Virginia from data centers, with current generation addition plans estimated at $2.2-2.5 bn of capital. Finally, SO mentioned potential capex upside, driven by significant demand growth particularly from large industrial and data center loads in Georgia, in addition to FERC natural gas pipelines.

  3. Potential for greater state involvement to reform PJM. Utilities are increasingly advocating for greater state involvement in reforming the PJM market, driven by perceived market inadequacies and the need for enhanced resource adequacy. EXC advocates for states to take more control over generation procurement through processes like Maryland's dispatchable generation procurement and Illinois's IRP, while also pushing for expedited interconnection and extended price collars within PJM. PEG emphasizes the necessity for New Jersey to implement a comprehensive IRP to define reliability standards, emissions targets, and affordability metrics, suggesting that state-led solutions, potentially including utility-owned storage, gas or nuclear generation, are crucial, and advocating for competitive processes that allow rate-base solutions. FE highlights West Virginia's proactive approach, where the governor is focused on generation, transmission, and energy security, allowing for new generation filings outside of standard IRP cycles to meet rapid load growth, and notes a desire for continued capacity pricing caps in PJM with less traction for longer-duration auctions. This collective sentiment points towards a growing trend where states are stepping in to ensure resource adequacy and guide generation development.

  4. Affordability and bill transparency remain top of mind. As utilities strive to meet rising power demand, affordability remained a key discussion point in our meetings with management. ED's management highlighted that property taxes, which constitute a sizable portion (~20%) of customer bills, will potentially be displayed separately to consumers as part of its joint proposal for its CECONY rate cases, aiming to promote transparency. During our meeting with PEG, management discussed the possibility of refunding ZECs to customers, which could reduce rates by 2%. However, this was viewed as a short-term solution, given that bill inflation in PEG's service territories rose 17-20% year-over-year, largely due to supply cost increases rather than distribution costs for which PEG is directly responsible. Collectively, utilities emphasized that affordability is paramount, with customers and regulators seeking greater clarity, hence the focus on bill inflation targets (e.g., DUK aiming to keep bills below inflation).

  5. EPC relationships matter for capital plan execution. Several utilities are emphasizing the strategic importance of long-term Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) relationships and partnerships to ensure efficient capital plan execution and manage labor and equipment supply. AEP highlighted that its partnership with Quanta will be key to secure labor and transformers/breakers for grid project execution, while its agreements with Kiewit, allowed for proactively locking in turbine slots. Similarly, DUK underscored its partnerships with EPCs like Zachry and Kiewit to standardize operations and ensure a consistent labor force across multiple sites, while XEL has pivoted from project-by-project RFPs to partnering with key tier-1 EPCs for a multi-year book of business. WEC also highlighted its long-standing relationships with EPCs/developers such as Burns & McDonnell and Invenergy to line up labor and manage project delivery. This positioning is crucial for mitigating supply chain constraints, standardizing equipment, and ensuring a stable, skilled labor force to manage the scale and complexity of current capital plans.

  6. Phase 2 of wildfire policy reform underway, but investors still in wait and see mode. Phase 2 of the California's wildfire policy reform is actively progressing, with Investor-Owned Utilities (IOUs) like PCG, EIX, and SRE collaboratively engaging in the process. Over 30 diverse stakeholders have submitted abstracts, with IOUs filing together to present a unified front on problem identification and solution principles, aiming for a whole society approach to reduce wildfire risk and ensure predictable claims recovery. Key next steps include the submission of detailed white papers by December 12, with comprehensive reports anticipated by January 30 and a final recommendation on April 1, outlining necessary legislative changes and reforms in areas touching insurance, liability, and community hardening. According to PCG and EIX, credit rating agencies are closely monitoring phase 2 developments, with some mainly seeking tangible progress in Phase 2, while others are awaiting the final legislative outcomes before fully assessing the benefits.

  7. Focus on identifying high confidence load from overall pipelines. Investors are increasingly focused on rigorously identifying high-confidence load within utility pipelines, moving beyond speculative inquiries to secure firm commitments. There is a higher degree of focus on signed ESAs, and more concern from investors that LOAs do not have the staying power that they have had previously. Companies are working to cull the speculative inquiries by requiring upfront deposits to conduct load/engineering studies, including FE, WEC, DUK, EXC and AEP. For example, AEP and EXC employ measures such as upfront deposits, take-or-pay contracts, and TSAs or LOAs that can convert to ESAs to identify high confidence load. AEP sees 80% of its LOAs converted to ESAs in PJM, though that share is lower in Texas/SPP. SO also has ESAs for its 2 GW of demand, with customers already funding engineering and site studies.

  8. Customer and financial protections for data center deals are key: Across meetings, minimum take provisions, 12-18 year contract lengths, and termination fees emerged as key considerations, reflecting the push to ensure predictable cash flows amid unprecedented data center led power demand surge. WEC's filed tariff for very large customers includes robust protections: hyperscalers must cover all incremental infrastructure costs, agree to 20-year contracts if seeking renewable generation, and pay for all requested capacity even if not fully utilized. Under the terms of WEC's proposed contract for large load customers, they must pay the net book value if WEC cannot re-purpose assets upon early contract termination, providing downside protection for WEC and its other customers. Overall, managements remained confident that a collapse of the tech driven data center build-out is less of a concern for in flight projects, given the amount of capital tech companies are investing in the facilities. The tone of our meetings remained optimistic, with data centers driving a large portion of power demand in the U.S., but with utilities prioritizing contract discipline and balance sheet protection over headline megawatt wins.

  9. Investors still highly focused on revisions to EPS growth CAGRs. Investors are seeking proof that increased power demand is translating into earnings growth for utilities. Companies that have successfully raised their EPS CAGRs are viewed more favorably on the back of this theme. For instance, XEL, targeting a 9% EPS CAGR through 2030, received positive feedback from attendees. NEE's upcoming investor day is anticipated to bring potential earnings revisions, aligning closer to its historical EPS CAGR of approximately 10%, especially since its current CAGR is lower at 6%-8%. AEP's recent guidance revision to a 7%-9% CAGR, with expectations of achieving 9% actual earnings growth, was also well-received. Some investors have queried if there is upside to DUK's current 5%-7% earnings CAGR over time, given its projected annual rate base growth of approximately 8.5% (at the lower end of its new capital plan) and management's expectation to comfortably reach the top end of the current range by 2028. For SO, growth is projected to be in the 5%-7% range, with 2027 and 2028 likely above the top end, after which the company would re-base off 2028, which was viewed as mixed by investors.

  10. All the above generation technologies needed to meet demand. Renewables remain topical for utilities with investors focused on projects that are safe harbored. NEE also talked about how 8-hour batteries are becoming increasingly cost-competitive, though there are still technology evolutions needed for longer duration options. Nuclear has also been topical where PEG had talked about its opportunity for new nuclear development where it would leverage its existing early site permit but established that it will not direct capex into new nuclear generation to avoid development risk. In meetings, our overall impression was that bridge solutions are not viewed as cannibalization risk due to the amount of demand needing to be met, and that utilities including NEE and AEP are also considering those options to provide better time to power for customers.

ZeroHedge Pro subscribers can read the complete note (here) with additional color from the EEI conference about data centers colliding with the grids. 

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 12:15

CEO Of Crowd-For-Hire Company Calls For Transparency In Who Funds Demonstrations

Zero Hedge -

CEO Of Crowd-For-Hire Company Calls For Transparency In Who Funds Demonstrations

Via American Greatness,

The CEO of Crowds On Demand is urging members of Congress to pass a Transparency In Political Demonstration Act (TPDA) that would require greater transparency in groups that hire demonstrators for events around the country.

Adam Swart wrote a letter to Congress on November 11, calling for more transparency in who is hiring protestors in order to “protect free speech while ensuring accountability and safety.”

According to Swart, the TPDA is needed to ensure that the American people have full knowledge of who is funding and facilitating political demonstrations.

Swart expressed concern that “in recent years, we’ve seen the line between authentic civic expression and paid political manipulation blur beyond recognition.”

In his letter, Swart told Congress, “Across the country, peaceful activism has too often been replaced by coordinated influence campaigns. Most concerningly, many of these campaigns result either intentionally or unintentionally in violence, property destruction, and the mass disruption of American cities through unpermitted road closures.”

He added, “While these demonstrations are branded as ‘grassroots,’ evidence increasingly shows large-scale organization and financing behind them, often routed through opaque nonprofit networks designed to conceal true funders—some of whom may be foreign entities with nefarious intentions.”

The TPDA would require disclosure of funding sources behind demonstrations that exceed a defined number of participants as well as establish a “public accountability portal” where the sponsors or subcontractors involved in planning or logistics of large scale protests must be disclosed.

According to The Hill, the proposed bill would also seek to ensure that foreign entities and intermediaries cannot covertly fund or coordinate demonstrations intended to destabilize domestic institutions.

The TPDA would also hold funders and organizers to a strict nonviolence standard and would disqualify those who promote or tolerate violence from nonprofit protections or certain federal benefits.

Swart told Newsnation that he’s making his proposal to Congress because peaceful protest is supposed to be protected speech, saying, “This isn’t about stopping protest; it’s about protecting it. The First Amendment only works when Americans know who’s paying.”

Tyler Durden Sat, 11/15/2025 - 11:40

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