From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 5.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 14, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 5.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 125 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 26 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate inching higher to its highest level in four weeks at 6.37 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Application activity over the week was lower, with potential homebuyers moving to the sidelines again, although there was a small increase in FHA purchase applications. Refinance applications decreased as borrowers remain sensitive to even small increases in rates at this level. The overall average loan size across both purchase and refinance applications dipped to its lowest level since August of this year, driven by another drop in the ARM share.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.37 percent from 6.34 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.62 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 26% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

Layan Odeh and Paula Sambo of Bloomberg report CPP Investment Board revamps growth equity after uneven returns:

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board is revamping a private equity strategy that focuses on high-growth companies after getting mixed results in the strategy, according to people familiar with the matter.

The pension manager’s growth equity group holds stakes in about 30 companies, mostly in various subsectors of technology, including artificial intelligence and financial tech. But after a flurry of dealmaking in 2021 and 2022, the team has dramatically slowed the rate of new direct investments following a period of soft returns.

Lately, it’s shifted some assets into a different portfolio, and it plans to lean heavily on third-party managers to source new investment ideas, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing internal matters.

Canada’s largest pension fund invested in about four firms over the past few months, including putting US$75 million into OpenAI and participating in Wealthsimple Financial Corp.’s latest equity round. But it’s only done a handful of other direct investments in the growth equity category since the beginning of 2024.

The fund’s San Francisco office is closing at the end of this year, and the new head of growth equity, Max Miller, has relocated to Toronto, a spokesperson said. There are three other managing directors within the group, according to its website. Lisa Conway recently joined the pension fund from Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System.

 

Michel Leduc, the pension manager’s head of public affairs and communications, said the slowdown in deal activity is related to the correction that took place in technology and growth companies after the COVID pandemic eased and interest rates shot higher, starting in 2022. Deal flow is picking up again, he said, and he predicted that there’s more activity to come. 

“The current fiscal year will represent one of our biggest years ever for direct investing in growth equity companies,” Leduc said. The private equity department, which includes the growth team, has always relied on a partnership model and there’s no change in that or the team’s “appetite” to invest directly, he added.

Miller became leader of the growth equity team in June — the third person to hold that role since 2023 — taking over from Monica Adractas, who’s becoming an adviser to the $732 billion fund. He reports to CPPIB’s head of funds Afsaneh Lebel, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The fund doesn’t disclose the returns of its growth equity portfolio, but performance has been uneven, according to people familiar with the matter.

Typically, growth equity investments fall somewhere in between venture capital and traditional buyouts, seeking to provide capital to businesses that are more established than startups but are still accelerating. CPPIB has been investing in these kinds of companies for many years, but made the decision three years ago to highlight the group as a distinct entity within its larger private equity division.

At the time, Suyi Kim, then global head of private equity, said her investment team had “all the elements required to build a formal growth equity practice that was truly one of a kind, on a global scale.”

CPPIB was not alone in making bets on growth stocks, which surged during the pandemic era of ultra-low interest rates. About half of CPPIB’s growth equity direct holdings were made between 2020 and 2022, according to its website. But tech sector valuations got crunched when the cost of capital changed.

Some of investments have shown huge progress, such as software firm Databricks Inc., which recently raised money at a $100 billion valuation, and KoBold Metals Co., which is searching for lithium and other minerals in the Democratic Republic of Congo and is backed by billionaires including Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates.

CPPIB also scored recent gains when two of its holdings, Klarna Group Plc and Netskope Inc., went public and attracted strong investor interest.

Others have had notable public stumbles. Shares of Sana Biotechnology Inc have plunged more than 80% since it went public in 2021. CPPIB invested in the firm in 2019.

Plaid Inc., a fintech that acts as a middleman between financial institutions and startups, raised money in April at a $6.1 billion valuation, less than half of what it was worth in 2021, when CPPIB invested in it. Another of its holdings from that year, Canadian chip startup Untether AI, began winding down operations in June, with its team moving to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. CPPIB no longer holds this investment, said the person.

The portfolio also includes N26, Germany’s largest digital-only bank, which is undergoing a shakeup that led to the departure of its co-chief executive officer after the country’s financial regulator identified deficiencies in the bank’s internal controls.

A few months ago, the pension plan had around 40 companies in its growth equity portfolio, but the fund has exited some investments and moved others to another entity called Integrated Strategies Group, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The group, which sits within the office of the chief investment officer, was created in 2023 to manage holdings that no longer fit within traditional investment departments.

CPPIB manages money of behalf of tens of millions of Canadian workers. 

I read this last week and take some statements in this article with a pinch of salt.

To be brutally honest, it doesn't surprise me, all these growth equity teams exhibit plenty of failures and a few successes and we are far from the pandemic heyday of 2020-2022 where rates were at zero and everyone was (literally) throwing money at public and private tech shares.

In short, rates have normalized as Michael Leduc rightly notes, valuations came down and in some cases, came down a lot.

Now we are living through another tech selloff in public markets. November has been brutal for megacap tech shares and guess what, all that trickles down to private markets as well (less appetite for risk taking in growth equity).

Look, I've seen a lot in 30+ years and I know one thing, when winter comes to VC and Growth Equity land, it's brutal.

CPP Investments wasn't the only large Canadian pension fund manager to rejig its growth equity team this year. OMERS did as well back in July.  

There are really good, smart people working at these groups but when the tide turns, it's rough. 

Personally, I would separate Growth Equity from Private Equity as I see them as two separate businesses.

Growth Equity is a lot riskier, can deliver huge returns or really lousy ones.

And when they're lousy, they're really lousy, can be a real drag on returns.

In other related private equity news, CPP Investments' Head of Secondaries, Dushy Sivanithy, recently announced on LinkedIn he's leaving the organization after seven years:

 

I honestly didn't expect that as he's a star on that Private Equity team but he obviously got poached away and I do wish him all the best in his next gig.

Tom Kapsimalis is now the Head of Secondaries at CPP Investments and he's another very experienced professional who I'm sure will do a great job handling this critical portfolio.

What else? Last week, CPP Investments announced net assets totalled $777.5 billion at the end of the second quarter fiscal 2026. You can read the details here and highlights below: 

• Net assets increase by $45.8 billion
• 10-year net return of 8.8%
• CPP Investments recognized once again for its transparency, as we ranked first among Canadian peers and second among 75 pension funds globally in the 2025 Global Pension Transparency Benchmark

Lastly, I want to congratulate CEO John Graham for winning the Eisenhower Global Citizenship Award at the 2025 Dwight D. Eisenhower Global Awards Gala.

The award was presented by Blackstone President & COO Jon Gray and just for background:

The 2025 Dwight D. Eisenhower Global Awards Gala will take place in New York City on Monday, November 10, honoring leaders who embodies the theme “70 Years of Enduring Parterships.” BCIU recognized the outstanding achievements of the following honorees:

• John Graham, President and Chief Executive Officer of CPP Investments, received the Eisenhower Global Citizenship Award
• Kenneth C. Griffin, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Citadel and Founder, Citadel Securities, will receive the Eisenhower Global Innovation Award
• María Corina Machado, Venezuelan opposition leader and 2025 winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, will receive the Eisenhower Award

Pretty impressive to be named alongside Ken Griffin and Maria Corina Machado who also won the Nobel Peace Prize this year.

Alright, let me wrap it up there.

Below, CNBC’s “Closing Bell” team discusses tech valuations with Aswath Damodaran, professor of finance at New York University’s Stern School of Business.

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau.  The consensus is for the deficit to be $61.4 billion in August, from $78.3 billion in July.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of October 28-29

Japan Bond Yields Soar To Record, Slamming Door On Stimulus Just As Economy Implodes Amid Escalating China Clash

Back in 2024, it was the story of the summer, but now with a relentless waterfall of news stressing traders - and that excludes the hourly blasts from Trump's truth social account - it has become impossible to filter the firehose of newsflow, let alone trade it. 

Which is why some may have missed the big store of the night which is that Japanese yields are once again breaking out in the back of the curve, with new cycle highs in the 20yr and 40yr weighing on sentiment and risk, and sending the Nikkei not only back below 50K, but below 49K, down 7% from the local record high hit on Halloween.

And with the recent surge in yields, driven by new PM Takaichi's plans for a fresh stimulus boost (see "Japan ruling-party panel proposes $161 billion extra budget to fund stimulus"), now that the country is basically back in recession after the catastrophic Q3 GDP print which tied for the second worst since covid...

... any plans for fiscal stimulus now are hard to square with the limits of the bond market according to Goldman's Delta-One head Rich Privorotsky. 

But while bond vigilantes may not allow Japan to spend on a fiscal stimulus, it may have no choice but to splurge on defense, as the country's diplomatic scandal with China is rapidly deteriorating, and is set to be a rerun of the Senkaku Island East China Sea crisis from 2013, which saw almost two years of unprecedented belligernce between the two countries. 

In the latest escalation of the deepening dispute between Asia's two largest economies over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's comments on Taiwan, Japan warned its citizens in China to step up safety precautions and avoid crowded places. As we reported last week, Takaichi sparked the most serious diplomatic clash in years when she told Japanese lawmakers this month that a Chinese attack on Taiwan threatening Japan's survival could trigger a military response.

A senior Japanese official met his counterpart in Beijing on Tuesday to try and tamp down the tension, but no breakthrough appeared imminent.

China's foreign ministry said Liu Jinsong, head of the ministry's Asia affairs department, had pressed at the meeting for Takaichi to retract her remarks. But Japan's top government spokesperson, Minoru Kihara, suggested Tokyo was in no mood to do so.

The comments did "not alter the government's existing position," Kihara told a press conference on Tuesday, adding that the government hoped issues concerning Taiwan would be resolved peacefully through dialogue.

A video posted on social media by China's Communist party-run newspaper Guangming Daily showed Liu telling reporters that he was "of course dissatisfied" with the meeting, and described the atmosphere as "solemn."

A Chinese diplomat in Japan responded to Takaichi's remarks by posting a threatening comment aimed at her on social media. That drew a strong rebuke from Tokyo, though it failed to stem vitriolic commentary against her in Chinese state media. Takaichi was summoning Japan's "militarist demons", the official news agency Xinhua said in the latest such attack on Tuesday.  

In view of the media coverage in China, Japan's embassy there reminded citizens on Monday to respect local customs and take care in interactions with Chinese people.

It asked citizens to be aware of their surroundings when outdoors, telling them to not travel alone and urging extra caution when accompanying children. "If you see a person or group that looks even slightly suspicious, do not approach them and leave the area immediately," the embassy said in its notice.

The dispute will deal a harsh blow to Japan's already reeling economy, as Beijing has urged its citizens not to travel there. Chinese form the largest number of all tourists to Japan, accounting for nearly a quarter, official figures show. Tourism-related stocks in Japan plunged on the news.

More than 10 Chinese airlines, such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines, have offered refunds on Japan-bound routes until December 31, while Sichuan Airlines has cancelled plans for a Chengdu-Sapporo route until at least March, state media said.

Film distributors have also suspended the screening of at least two Japanese films in China, a step state broadcaster CCTV hailed on Monday as a "prudent decision" reflecting souring domestic sentiment. Screening of some Japanese films originally set for release in coming weeks, such as the animated "Crayon Shin-chan the Movie: Super Hot! Scorching Kasukabe Dancers" and manga-turned-movie "Cells at Work!" will not begin in mainland China as scheduled, it added, citing industry checks.

Apart from tourism, Japan is heavily dependent on China for supply of critical minerals used in items from electronics to cars. 

"If we rely too heavily on a country that resorts to economic coercion the moment something displeases it, that creates risks not only for supply chains but also for tourism," Japan's economic security minister, Kimi Onoda, told a press conference on Tuesday.

"We need to recognise that it's dangerous to be economically dependent on somewhere that poses such risks," she added, responding to a question about China's calls for its citizens to avoid travel to Japan.

Japan's Trade Minister Ryosei Akazawa said there had been no particular changes yet in China's export control measures on rare earths and other materials. The heads of Japan's three business federations met Takaichi late on Monday and urged dialogue to resolve the diplomatic tension.

"Political stability is a prerequisite for economic exchange," Yoshinobu Tsutsui, chairman of Japan's biggest business lobby Keidanren, told reporters after the meeting, media said.

Meanwhile, sensing blood in the water, China is prepared to instigate a rerun of the Senkaku crisis from a decade ago. On Sunday, Chinese coast guard ships sailed through waters around a group of East China Sea islands controlled by Japan but claimed by China. Japan's coast guard said it drove the Chinese ships away.

The United States does not formally recognise the islands, known as Senkaku in Tokyo and the Diaoyu in Beijing, as Japanese sovereign territory. Since 2014 it has said it would be obliged by the Japan-U.S. security treaty to defend them if they were attacked, however.

"In case anyone was in doubt, the United States is fully committed to the defence of Japan, which includes the Senkaku Islands, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, George Glass, said on X. "And formations of Chinese coast guard ships won’t change that."

Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a press conference on Tuesday that Glass's remarks were a "political show with ulterior motives".

This week's G20 summit in South Africa offered a possible forum to help ease tension, but China said its premier had no plans to meet Takaichi.

Kihara said nothing has been decided about two-way meetings during G20, but Japan remains open to holding "various dialogues" with China. Japan's refusal to retract its statements meant its de-escalatory efforts had failed to mollify Beijing, said Allen Carlson, an expert on China's foreign policy at Cornell University.

"As a result, the two countries now stand on a knife’s edge."

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 17:20

Michelle Obama Says She Won't Run Because America "Ain't Ready" For A Woman

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Former First Lady Michelle Obama bluntly rejected calls that she run for office because America “ain’t ready” for a woman president. 

Obama made the remarks Friday in a YouTube interview with actress Tracee Ellis Ross while promoting her new book, The Look.

The interview touched on the first lady’s role as an archetype of “wifedom and femininity,” before Obama veered into a tangent on broader cultural issues and the 2024 election. 

“Do you think that impacts the room that we’ve made for a woman to be president?” Ross asked.

Obama then replied, “As we saw in this past election, sadly, we ain’t ready,” before addressing individuals trying to recruit her for a run. 

“That’s why I’m like, don’t even look at me about running because you all are lying,” she added.

“You’re not ready for a woman. You are not! So don’t waste my time. We’ve got a lot of growing up to do and there’s still, and sadly, a lot of men who do not feel like they can be led by a woman and we saw it.” 

Obama then turned to Ross and sarcastically asked, “What was the question?” prompting laughter from the audience.

NEW: Michelle Obama says she isn't going to run for president because she doesn't want to waste her time because America "ain't ready."

Tracee Ellis Ross: How do you feel about the fact that the First Lady is an archetype for wifedom and femininity?

Obama: I don't agree with… pic.twitter.com/e03xKMIOvE

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 15, 2025

Obama has long been viewed as a potential presidential candidate since leaving the White House in 2017. 

Her remarks also come as the Democratic Party has lost two of the last three presidential elections after nominating flawed women candidates.  

Hillary Clinton ran in 2015 amid sinking popularity and mounting criminal scandals. In 2024, the party nominated then-Vice President Kamala Harris without holding a primary, despite abysmal approval ratings. 

In both cases, Democrats were quick to blame misogyny and racism for their losses. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 17:00

NGO-Backed Groups Train To Obstruct Immigration Arrests In North Carolina

It has been said over and over again the past few months:  Progressive activist groups sabotaging ICE operations are far too organized to be grassroots and always seem to know exactly where immigration authorities are going to show up and make arrests.  Someone is creating these mobs from thin air, training them, funding them and letting them off their leash to attack when the opportunity is presented. 

The establishment media consistently runs interference for these networks, insisting the protests are grassroots and completely spontaneous. 

One such case of propaganda is the Rachel Maddow Show on MSNOW (formerly MSNBC) and their coverage of training camps organized in Charlotte, North Carolina as federal immigration officers arrive on the ground to arrest illegal migrants. 

As we have seen across the country, anti-ICE mobs have followed a near identical playbook of disruption, provocation, sabotage, stalking of agents, blocking roads and creating general chaos in order to impede the arrests.  In some cases, direct violence is used when activists think they can get away with it.  These tactics have been employed extensively in Chicago in the past month.

Disruption groups threaten the safety of ICE agents, creating the necessity for the deployment of the National Guard, which Democrats then call "authoritarianism".

The training is rarely covered by the media, and when it is, they paint it as "communities coming together" and "protecting their neighbors".  In reality, these groups garner millions in funds from far-left and globalist NGOs.  Arrested activists who commit trespassing, obstruction or violence often enjoy funds set aside by NGOs for legal defense and bail, putting them back on the streets within hours.  They are the furthest thing from "grassroots."    

The "Defend and Recruit" organization involved in these training sessions is a front group for an NGO called Siembre NC which has been in operation since 2017 (when Trump first entered office).  Just as globalist NGO's pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into BLM organizations and practically bankrolled the the national BLM riots, they are also funding anti-ICE groups.

According to IRS tax filings, Siembre NC has received millions of dollars from other NGO's including George Soros' Open Society Foundation, ActBlue, dark money group Sixteen Thirty Fund, Hewlett foundation and they are also under investigation for possibly receiving indirect funding from the Chinese CCP. 

This year, congressional investigations (led by figures like Kash Patel) probed $34 million in federal/state grants to anti-ICE NGOs, including Siembra NC affiliates. Allegations include misuse for doxxing ICE agents and foreign interference.  DHS has reported a 500% spike in violent attacks on ICE agents, causing these NGO's to come under scrutiny. 

Furthermore, organizations like Siembre NC were also indirectly collecting taxpayer funds sourced from institutions like USAID until it was shut down this year.  The conspiracy is out in the open - progressive NGOs are a fundamental threat to US border integrity and immigration enforcement.  They are so blatant in their operations that they proudly display their training on media platforms like MSNOW.   

Without these NGOs, the anti-deportation protests would most likely disappear. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 16:40

Adam Smith Vs The Engineers Of Utopia

Authored by Mani Basharzad via CapX.co,

Ha-Joon Chang recently wrote an article in the Financial Times criticising the state of economic education, which drew considerable attention. What went almost unnoticed, however, was a letter published in response. Surprisingly, one of the most prominent Austrian economists, Mario Rizzo, agreed with Chang. He wrote:

“Recently, I had a chance to look at some exams in undergraduate economics courses, including the first course, generally called ‘Principles.’ What I saw was disturbing. The students were given, mainly or only, problem sets of a completely mathematical nature. The emphasis was on mechanical problem-solving. There were no questions involving critical reflection on the ideas or frameworks taught.”

What explains this unlikely agreement between two economists from opposite schools of thought? The simple answer is that there is something wrong with economic education. But the deeper problem lies not in what is taught, but how it is taught.

Let’s go back to one of the most influential economics books ever written—a book on the scale of J.M. Keynes’s “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” or Alfred Marshall’s “Principles of Economics”—“Economics” by Paul Samuelson. It became one of the bestselling textbooks of all time, making a fortune for its author. But more important than its commercial success was its intellectual influence, prompting Samuelson to declare: “I don’t care who writes a nation’s laws, if I can write its economics textbooks.” He was right. He is, in Keynes’s phrase, the “defunct economist” still shaping how we think. What truly mattered about his book was how it redefined the economist’s role.

Samuelson wrote: “No immutable ‘wave of the future’ washes us down ‘the road to serfdom,’ or to utopia. Where the complex economic conditions of life necessitate social coordination and planning, sensible men of good will can be expected to invoke the authority and creative activity of government.” In Samuelson’s world, the economist’s task is to assist the “men of good will” in government to solve social problems. Deirdre McCloskey captures this mindset best in her memoirs, recalling that when she studied for her Ph.D. at Harvard, her classmates all imagined they would go to Washington to “fine-tune” the economy.

Economic education since then has trained students to see themselves as assistants to these “men of good will,” solving technical equations for equilibrium and absorbing the idea that economics is an engineering problem rather than a coordination problem. Engineering problems deal with optimal solutions and data, but coordination problems deal with trade-offs and dispersed knowledge.

As Peter Boettke argues, in a world where all means and ends are known, the only task left is an engineering one. That is, essentially, what students learn in Econ 101—a world of perfect knowledge, known preferences, known prices, and calculable costs, where solving equations yields all the answers. But the real wisdom of economics lies in understanding deviations from this perfection.

This is where it gets tricky. Economists like Ha-Joon Chang criticise the field because perfection doesn’t exist, and therefore they deem the models useless. But economists such as Frank Knight and Friedrich Hayek also start from the assumption of perfection—yet they do not stop there. They recognise the significance of market institutions precisely because we live in an imperfect world.

The market is one of humanity’s greatest achievements for dealing with imperfection. In a world of perfect knowledge, markets would be meaningless. But in the real world, prices perform a miracle—they coordinate millions of decisions and “get Paris fed” without a central planner. Knight begins “Risk, Uncertainty and Profit” by imagining a world without risk, uncertainty, or profit, and then shows how markets function when those elements exist.

The problem is not perfection itself, but treating it as a policy goal for governments to achieve. In the Samuelsonian worldview, markets are full of imperfections—information asymmetries, externalities, monopolies and so on—but government is seen as perfect. The economist’s role then becomes helping the state reach that imagined perfection. Perfection, in this mindset, ceases to be a theoretical tool and becomes a political mission. That is what is wrong with economics education. Perfection is a means of understanding the market’s value, not a utopia to be imposed.

This misunderstanding leads students to forget their limited knowledge about how to design human institutions. A sound economic education begins by viewing the market as a process, not a static state. It should show how our “propensity to truck, barter, and exchange” gives rise to miracles—from airplanes to iPhones—things unimaginable to those living just decades earlier. The beauty of economics lies not in trusting “men of good will” in government, but in trusting free individuals to make daily life better.

As the father of modern economics Adam Smith wrote, we should “allow every man to pursue his own interest his own way, upon the liberal plan of equality, liberty and justice.”

That hardly sounds like a “dismal” science to me.

Taught this way, economics is revealed as the story of human cooperation, with division of labour, profit, and loss guiding us toward more productive activity. But over the last half-century, Adam Smith’s optimistic science of wealth creation has become the pessimistic science of choice under scarcity. In the latter, the problem is allocation, not coordination. And when economists see their task as calculating optimal allocations, they forget “the lesson of humility which should guard ... against becoming an accomplice in men’s fatal striving to control society,” as Hayek warned.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 16:20

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

The first graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Click on graph for larger image.

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday and then decline sharply and bottom in the Winter depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.  
Imports were down 12.5% YoY in October, and exports were down 5.1% YoY.    
To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the second graph shows the rolling 12-month average.

On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic decreased 1.2% in September compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.   
Outbound traffic decreased 0.5% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month.
This is the 11th consecutive month with exports down YoY.

Texas Wants To Be Reimbursed For Biden Open-Border's Cost

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Members of the Texas Congressional delegation are demanding the federal government reimburse the state for the $11.1 billion it spent tackling the Biden administration’s “open-border abdication.” 

The lawmakers, including both senators and House members, made the request Friday in a three-page letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, directly blaming the previous administration for saddling Texas with the bill. 

The Republican lawmakers pointed to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which provides $13.5 billion in reimbursement funds to states that dealt with the massive influx of illegal aliens during former President Joe Biden’s tenure. 

“President Biden’s open-border policies imposed a substantial cost on communities in Texas, through increased fentanyl trafficking, crime, and even stress on local emergency response services,” they wrote. 

We must ensure Texas is reimbursed for the $11.1B we spent defending our state during the Biden Administration’s open-border abdication.

I signed a letter urging DOJ and DHS to repay Texas and finally confront the consequences of the border invasion unleashed on Biden’s watch. pic.twitter.com/651oL2vopY

— Congressman Brandon Gill (@RepBrandonGill) November 17, 2025

The lawmakers highlighted Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s Operation Lone Star, a statewide effort launched to secure the border “when the federal government would not.” 

Through the operation, Abbott ordered the deployment of state police to arrest individuals accused of state crimes and led the construction of new miles of border barriers and buoy defenses. 

Texas reported that at least 535,724 illegal aliens have been detained since the operation’s launch. Border crossings in Texas dropped 87 percent. 

“Texas’s actions through Operation Lone Star were absolutely vital to ensuring the safety and security of Americans across our great country,” the lawmakers wrote. “However, our State should not have had to bear alone the costs of securing the border when former President Biden intentionally failed to do so.” 

They continued, “We therefore respectfully ask that, as the Departments prepare to disburse the funds set aside in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the State of Texas be fully reimbursed for the costs incurred to protect Americans from illegal immigration and drug trafficking under former President Biden’s disastrous leadership.” 

The letter was signed by the following lawmakers: Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz, along with August Pfluger, Pete Sessions, John Carter, Michael McCaul, Randy K. Weber, Roger Williams, Brian Babin, Jodey C. Arrington, Michael Cloud, Dan Crenshaw, Lance Gooden, Chip Roy, Pat Fallon, Tony Gonzales, Ronny Jackson, Troy E. Nehls, Beth Van Duyne, Jake Ellzey, Monica De La Cruz, Wesley Hunt, Morgan Luttrell, Keith Self, Brandon Gill, Nathaniel Moran and Craig Goldman. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 15:30

As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs on July 30, 2025

Two Ukrainians Working For Russian Intelligence Behind Unprecedented Rail Sabotage: Poland Claims

Warsaw authorities have now laid official blame on the sabotage attack on Poland's rail network which was uncovered Sunday, and could have led to the derailing of a train. As everyone expected, they are looking squarely at Moscow.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced Tuesday that an investigation at the scene points to two Ukrainian citizens who have "long worked for Russian intelligence" as the prime suspects in the case.

Via ABC

A train track linking the Polish cities of Warsaw and Lublin had been destroyed in an "unprecedented act of sabotage". Tusk described the damaged railway is as crucially important for delivering aid to Ukraine.

"The goal was to cause a rail catastrophe," Tusk told members of Polish parliament in a briefing on Tuesday. He identified that at one of the two specific sabotage sites a military-grade C4 explosive charge was used.

BBC reports that "Another incident further down the line near Pulawy forced a crowded train to stop suddenly and damage was found to overhead cables."

An "explosive device" blew up the rail track, with the the act "directly (targeted) the security of the Polish state and its civilians" - Tusk has also said.

Follow-up statements by Polish investigators said that "everything points to them being Russian special services" - in reference to the pair of Ukrainian nationals believed behind the plot. Tusk says that one of the men lives in eastern Ukraine and another is living in Belarus.

Additionally, Poland’s security services minister, Tomasz Siemoniak, has described attack on a section of the track near Mika village as "a new stage of threatening the railway infrastructure." The severe damage was found some 80 miles from the Ukrainian border.

While Polish investigators say they've identified the perpetrators, it doesn't look like they are in custody, and are likely still on the run. Some regional observers have raised the possibility of a 'false flag' - as it remains hard to independently verify any information coming out of NATO countries' authorities.

via Sky News

Estonia's Prime Minister Kristen Michal had condemned the apparent sabotage op, writing on X that he and his country stand with Poland. "Those behind hostile acts against (European Union) and NATO members must be exposed. Our response must be united."

European countries have long complained of Russian-sponsored 'hybrid warfare' against EU critical infrastructure. They also say that Russia is behind mystery drone incursions which have at times disrupted busy commercial airports as as well as military flights.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 14:45

Emails Reveal Under Armor Urged Maryland To Buy Horse Farm After No Buyers - Will Gov. Moore Return Favor?

The pattern emerging from Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank and his Maryland-based real estate ventures suggests mounting financial strain beneath the surface. This comes as UA shares have collapsed 48% year to date, trading near record lows, raising questions about Plank's sudden need for liquidity. 

In February, we noted that Plank relisted his $18.5 million, 500-acre racehorse farm, Sagamore Farm, located in upper Baltimore County, just 15 minutes north of Towson, signaled a clear need for liquidity.

Plank purchased the farm in mid-2007 for $6.5 million, invested $22 million in upgrades, and still hasn't found a buyer.

In fact, the property, located just down the street from the Hunt Cup steeplechase race, has drawn so little interest that Plank's representatives have asked Maryland Gov. Wes Moore's office to consider purchasing the horse farm.

Local outlet The Baltimore Banner reports that emails between Plank's Sagamore Ventures and Gov. Wes Moore's office show Plank's team pitched the farm as a state-owned horse training facility, which could be part of Moore's broader effort to revitalize Pimlico Race Course and the Preakness Stakes.

In one email, Brendan Tizard, Sagamore Ventures' vice president, listed off several reasons why Sagamore Farm would be a better fit for the state. 

Tizard's top reasons: 

• Sagamore Farm is closer to Pimlico; the land is better suited for horse training;

• and Sagamore's facilities are largely turnkey.

"Although Sagamore's acquisition cost is higher than Shamrock's, the reduction in development time, permitting, and capital make the project more cost-effective for the state," Tizard said in one of the email documents shared with Moore's office. 

Why does this matter? Because Sagamore Farm has been on and off the market for years without finding a buyer. At the same time, Under Armour's stock has crashed, and Plank has been unwinding pieces of his real estate empire, mansions, a hotel, and other assets. The pattern paints a broader picture of someone under growing financial pressure.

"Plank has sold two other high-profile homes in the past decade, a Georgetown mansion for $17.25 million in 2020 and his Park City, Utah condo for $18 million in 2023," WSJ noted earlier this year. 

In recent months, Plank and his brother Scott Plank sold their ownership interest in a luxury hotel tucked into Baltimore's historic Fells Point neighborhood.

The urgent need for cash?

• Inside World Of High-Net-Worth Lending: Kevin Plank Pledges Georgetown Home For $15M Commercial Loan

And Plank built a "billion-dollar ghost town" in crime-ridden and far-left-controlled Baltimore City...

Meanwhile, UA's turnaround plan sputters:

• Under Armour Shares Crash As Kevin Plank's Turnaround Plan Hits Wall 

Stock is spiraling lower. 

UA shares are 27.5% short, equivalent to 51.8 million shares sold short. A massive short position has been building over the past few years as the stock slides. One has to wonder what Plank's plan is to trigger a squeeze.

However, not everyone sees the UA spiraling to zero. UBS analyst Jay Sole recently noted... 

• "We Think Sentiment Will Turn Positive": UBS Sees Inflection Point In Under Armour Shares

And by the way, Plank recently hosted a closed-door fundraiser for the leftist Gov. Moore at Sagamore. 

A lingering question remains: Why the sudden need for liquidity? Could the answer be stock-backed loans that are now underwater?

And we'll end with the ultimate question: After Plank's private fundraiser for Moore at Sagamore, will the governor return the favor?

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 14:25

What GAO Found VA’s Veterans Benefits Administration (VBA) may require veterans filing disability claims to undergo medical exams to help determine eligibility. VBA relies on contractors to provide medical professionals, called examiners, to conduct most of these exams. Conducting quality exams is important because errors can result in costly rework and delays in processing claims. VBA’s Medical Disability Examination Office (MDEO), which oversees these contractors, has refined its oversight since its establishment in 2016. GAO’s 2024 and 2025 reports described MDEO’s oversight, including quality control techniques for preventing errors from occurring during exams, detecting any exam errors that did occur, and correcting errors and providing accountability. GAO’s prior work also identified opportunities to strengthen MDEO’s oversight of contracted exam quality. Specifically, GAO found (1) breakdowns in procedures for correcting the most frequent or complex problems with contracted exams, (2) incorrect financial incentive payments to contractors, and (3) a gap in feedback from examiners—a key stakeholder group. GAO made five recommendations across the following four areas. All five remain open as of November 2025. VA has partially addressed one and described plans to address the others. Contractor quality action plans analyze the cause of the most frequent exam errors and specify contractors’ corrective actions. GAO found that MDEO’s procedures for reviewing these action plans lacked certain steps, including verifying that contractors completed the corrective actions and assessing whether these actions improved exam quality. GAO recommended that MDEO improve its procedures by including these steps. MDEO has partially addressed this recommendation. Special Focused Reviews seek to identify and address exam quality issues in specific areas. GAO found that MDEO was behind schedule on reviews for the most complex issues, such as military sexual trauma. GAO recommended that MDEO adhere to the biennial schedule outlined in its procedures. Financial incentives are based on contractor performance, including exam quality. GAO found that MDEO had no written procedures for checking the accuracy of its calculations for these incentives, resulting in almost $2.3 million in overpayments to contractors in fiscal year 2024. GAO recommended that MDEO develop and use such procedures. GAO also recommended that MDEO recalculate all financial incentives and correct any errors. Examiner feedback provides a key perspective on issues affecting exam quality. GAO found that MDEO relied on contractors to relay examiner feedback. However, five of six examiners GAO interviewed said contractors did not always address their concerns, making it harder to provide high-quality exams. They said they would like to provide feedback directly to MDEO. GAO recommended that MDEO collect and address direct feedback from examiners. Fully implementing GAO’s five recommendations would help MDEO improve exam quality so veterans receive more accurate and timely benefits decisions. Why GAO Did This Study Contracted disability examinations provide critical information for determining veterans’ eligibility for benefits. In fiscal year 2024, contracted examiners conducted over 3 million disability exams, costing over $5 billion. This statement summarizes 1) MDEO’s processes for overseeing exam quality and 2) GAO recommendations for improving these processes. This statement is based on two GAO reports: GAO-24-107730 and GAO-25-107483. For those reports, GAO analyzed MDEO financial incentive data from April 2023 through September 2024. Also, GAO reviewed MDEO documents and interviewed MDEO officials, contractors, and six examiners selected from a randomized list of all examiners for variation in characteristics such as specialty and experience. Finally, GAO interviewed MDEO officials on steps taken to address GAO’s recommendations.

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California October Home Sales "Highest Level Since February"; 4th Look at Local Markets

A brief excerpt:

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales hit highest level since February, C.A.R. reports

California home sales rose in October from both the prior month and a year ago to reach the highest level since February, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 282,590 in October, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2025 if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

October home sales edged up 1.9 percent from 277,410 in September to 282,590 in October. Home sales improved 4.1 percent from a revised 271,370 recorded a year earlier.

There is much more in the article.

Navigating The Curve: The Allure And Risks Of Long-Dated US Treasuries

Authored by Mario Eisenegger via BondVigilantes.com,

Compared to a year ago, the US Treasury curve has steepened considerably.

While yields at the front end have dropped due to anticipated rate cuts, the long end of the curve has not budged.

In fact, long-end bonds have sold off, giving bond investors the opportunity to lock in elevated yields.

That’s quite a tempting thought, considering we’re talking about the US, which sets the global reference rate for many asset classes.

Source: Bloomberg, 31 October 2025

In economies where GDP growth is constrained by high levels of debt and unfavourable demographics, governments either need to hope for a productivity boom or be prudent with spending plans to keep debt-to-GDP metrics in check. Achieving the latter can be challenging given the pressures of rising geopolitical tensions and the structural incentives in democratic systems that often prioritise short-term spending commitments during election cycles. This, in turn, increases the odds of inflation playing a larger role in achieving fiscal sustainability in the future.

In a world of financial repression, an opportunity to lock in positive real yields at 2-2.5% is worth considering. But, it is not a slam dunk.

Below, we share are a few concerns that keep us on the sidelines for now.

Risk one: absence of productivity boom

Running fiscal deficits when yields are high and debt-to-GDP levels are elevated can be  risky business. The US is currently doing just that which explains why the bond market has revalued the compensation it demands for owning long-dated US Treasuries. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) sees federal debt rise from 100% to 118% of GDP by 2035, reporting the highest point in US history.

Source: Congressional Budget Office

Earlier this year, Deutsche Bank calculated the budget deficit the US must maintain to stabilise its debt metrics. According to their calculations, the US would need to run a primary budget deficit-to-GDP ratio that is no larger than 1.2% to keep debt-to-GDP stable over the long run. With the fiscal package estimated to keep budget deficits as a share of GDP between 5% and 7% over the next few years, deficits of that size look unsustainable in the absence of a productivity boom. Hopes for productivity gains through AI are high. If the story holds up and the much-hoped-for productivity gains materialise, then the US fiscal situation could suddenly look much brighter. Having said that, the CBO also notes that if productivity growth is 0.5% slower per year compared to their baseline assumption, debt could surge to over 200% of GDP by 2055. This highlights how sensitive debt assumptions are, increasing the risk of policy errors that could  lead to further repricing of long-dated US bonds.

Risk two: erosion of Fed independence

In August, President Trump attempted to remove Lisa Cook from the Fed’s board of governors, citing allegations that she falsified records to obtain favourable terms on a mortgage before joining the central bank in 2022. Although the Supreme Court ruled that Cook, who is perceived as a hawkish board member, could remain in her position temporarily, Trump’s move could indicate an attempt to increase his influence over the Fed. The Fed may face repeated pressure if its monetary policies do not align with the White House’s political priorities. Jerome Powell’s term as Federal Reserve chair ends in May 2026, and Trump has stated that he will not nominate “Too-Late” Powell for another term. A new Fed chair might take a more dovish stance, increasing the risk that the Fed opts for lower interest rates to stimulate economic growth. One can argue that the US economy has become more resilient, given that 81% of GDP is now service-oriented, which tends to solve for smoother economic cycles. Cutting rates in a weakening but still growing economy, where inflation hovers above the Fed’s target, is risky business and may lead investors to demand higher long-term interest rates.

Risk three: tariff income might be deemed illegal

The president used a 1977 emergency law to impose tariffs on goods from over 100 countries. On the back of that, tariff revenues have grown for months, and the latest data shows that the US has collected $223.9 billion from them as of 31st October which is $142.2 billion more than the same time last year. This month, the US Supreme Court began hearing cases that could rule certain tariffs and their corresponding revenue streams illegal. These developments could worsen the US fiscal situation and bring the fiscal challenge back into the limelight, likely leading to higher term premium. I consider this likely to be a short term impact, as the Trump administration will probably  find new ways to enact tariffs.

Risk four: shift away from T-Bill heavy funding profile

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signalled a preference to avoid locking the government into higher borrowing costs when bills are cheaper. Just a few days ago the US Treasury confirmed this by indicating in its quarterly refinancing statement that it does not plan to increase sales of notes and bonds until well into next year and will rely more heavily on bills, which mature in up to one year, to fund the budget deficit. T-bills currently comprise 20% of the US debt held by the public. The Treasury has acknowledged that this reliance reduces expected costs while also increasing volatility of its funding profile. This trade-off is highly sensitive to baseline economic forecasts. While the current funding mix is appropriate in a “productivity boom” scenario, other scenarios highlight additional risks. Interestingly, their model suggests that a reduction in bill issuance in favour of mid-duration issuance could lower volatility for a negligible increase in costs in adverse scenarios. Thus, the odds of a shift away from a T-bill-heavy funding profile might be higher than many believe.

While the positive real yields offered by long-dated US Treasuries are tempting, we await the resolution of some of the uncertainties discussed to strengthen our conviction. For now, we consider positive real yields more attractive in other market areas where we have greater confidence in the direction of long-dated yields.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 12:05

Sen. Graham Touts Movement On New Russian Sanctions Bill 'With Trump's Blessing'

Sen. Lindsey Graham announced Monday the Senate is taking up legislation that would sanction Russia's trading partners, in order to ramp up the pressure on Moscow to end the war with Ukraine.

The announcement came after President Donald Trump told reporters Sunday night the proposed legislation would be "OK with me" - which marked his strongest signal yet that he's planning on signing off on it.

Graham, a Russia hawk (and pretty much hawkish on all other conflicts and official US 'enemies' in the world) unveiled the move forward on the legislation "with President Trump’s blessing."

via AP

He described the necessity of yet more sanctions in order to "continue the momentum to end this war honorably, justly and once and for all."

"This legislation is designed to give President Trump more flexibility and power to push Putin to the peace table by going after both Putin and countries like Iran that support him," Graham wrote. "I appreciate the strong bipartisan support for this legislation in both the House of Representatives and the Senate."

"The Senate will move soon on a tough sanctions bill — not only against Russia — but also against countries like China and India that buy Russian energy products that finance Putin’s war machine," Graham additionally stated. "The Senate bill has a presidential waiver to give President Trump maximum leverage."

"When it comes to Putin and those who support his war machine, it is time to change the game," he continued. Further, Graham again verified that Trump "is looking at [the bill] very strongly." But Trump wants the ultimate final say-so:

Graham and Sen. Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), a co-sponsor of the bill, worked to include the presidential waiver to satisfy a White House request to give Trump more options, according to Politico.

US media is framing this as part of Trump "losing patience" with Putin over ending the war; however, the reality remains that Kiev and its Western backers have been unwilling to offer territorial concessions. Finally ceding Crimea hasn't even been on the table.

"We get a lot of bullshit thrown at us by Putin, if you want to know the truth," Trump recently told reporters. "He’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless." And Graham responded to Trump's words by saying the president "is spot on about the games Putin is playing."

Lately, amid a 'civil war' in MAGA-land in the wake of the Tucker Carlson and Nick Fuentes interview, many of Trump's supporters have vehemently complained that Trump is too much in neocon Lindsey Graham's corner on foreign policy. His administration certainly didn't start off like that.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 11:45

Transparency is an aspect of CBO's work that the agency continually strives to improve—and one about which it often receives questions. CBO's Director addresses some of the most common questions about the agency's approach to transparency.

AI "Circle Jerk" Rages On: Microsoft, Nvidia Invest $15 Billion In Anthropic

Two months ago, when nobody was talking about the coming AI debt tsunami needed to bankroll trillions in data-center capex, and nobody was paying attention to Oracle's CDS quietly blow out, and well ahead of the Bank of England's AI valuation warning, we published "The Stunning Math Behind The AI Vendor Financing "Circle Jerk," essentially laying out all the weakest links in the swelling global AI bubble.

In the report, we laid out the ridiculous circle-jerk vendor financing schemes concocted by the handful of top players to pretend their revenue is growing at a rapid pace. We also called it an "infinite money glitch"...

Most notably, the players.

Fast-forward to Tuesday: the AI bubble keeps deflating, hyperscalers are under pressure, Bitcoin trading in the $92k range, and Microsoft and Amazon were just downgraded to neutral by Rothschild & Co. and Redburn's Alexander Haissl. Now comes fresh news from Microsoft and Nvidia, attempting to revive the AI hype with yet another round of circle-jerking. 

Bloomberg reports Microsoft and Nvidia will invest up to $15 billion in Anthropic. As part of the agreement, Anthropic will purchase $30 billion of compute from Microsoft's Azure, which only confirms more circle-jerking. 

"We are increasingly going to be customers of each other — we will use Anthropic models, they will use our infrastructure, and we will go to market together," Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated in a video, adding, "Of course, this all builds on the partnership we have with OpenAI, which remains a critical partner for Microsoft."

Satya Nadella explains how the circle jerk works: "We are increasingly going to be customers of each other — we will use Anthropic models, they will use our infrastructure, and we will go to market together"

And the US taxpayer will bail out everyone.

The end. https://t.co/WIHEzmZOlz

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 18, 2025

To support the AI-infrastructure buildout, Anthropic plans to spend $50 billion building AI data centers across multiple states. The AI company is simultaneously partnered with Google, which agreed in October to supply up to 1 million AI chips. 

Earlier, analyst Haissl warned that the bullish case around generative AI is no longer clear and hyperscalers should be approached with caution. 

He noted the industry's "trust us - Gen-AI is just like early cloud 1.0" pitch is flawed and that the underlying economics are far weaker than assumed.

Building on Haissl's warning, we've been very early in covering Oracle's CDS blowout, even offering warnings about AI debt and valuations well before the Bank of England. 

Bad news for the AI stocks. 

With all free cash flow going into chatbot data center capex, there is nothing left for buybacks and dividends. pic.twitter.com/RcqzDhHLv6

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 3, 2025

As we've previously joked. 

at this rate tomorrow morning we will get this headline

*OPENAI SIGNS DEAL WITH OPENAI TO BUY AND SELL $100 TRILLION WORTH OF STUFF TO AND FROM ITSELF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 4, 2025

Morgan Stanley analysts need to add Anthropic to the circle jerking.

Harris Kupperman, CIO of Praetorian Capital, posted the following on X,

Love how shareholders look at this deal, realize that this guarantees big losses for years into the future, and sell them like they're shale shit-cos promising to raise production in a $50 oil environment. Welcome to 2016 tech bros. The multiple compression is only just starting...

Rihard Jarc, co-founder and CIO of New Era Funds, pointed out that multiple narratives are converging in the Microsoft-Nvidia-Anthropic partnership:

So many narratives are at play here in the Microsoft-Nvidia-Anthropic partnership:

1. Nvidia saw Anthropic do a deal with Google's TPUs and Amazon's Trainium, so it had to ensure Anthropic stays committed to Nvidia hardware.

2. Microsoft is signaling that its future isn't dependent on OpenAI alone.

3. Anthropic is showing investors it can line up splashy partnerships and meaningful letter-of-intent orders.

4. And all of them timed this announcement to land on the same day as Google's Gemini 3.0 release - because if Google wins the frontier-model race decisively, all three would feel the pressure.

So many narratives are at play here at the $MSFT & $NVDA & Anthropic partnership IMO:

1. $NVDA saw Anthropic do a deal with $GOOGL TPUs, & $AMZN Trainium so it had to make sure Anthropic will use $NVDA

2. $MSFT showing that its fate is not dependent on OpenAI.

3. Anthropic is… https://t.co/QhoYPqyK4F

— Rihard Jarc (@RihardJarc) November 18, 2025

How does all this end? Trump's AI advisor, David Sacks may have offered a clue: "There will be no federal bailout for AI. The U.S. has at least five major frontier-model companies. If one fails, others will take its place."

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 11:30

China's Oil Stockpiling Accelerated In October

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

China stockpiled crude oil at elevated rates in October, at a daily rate of some 690,000 barrels, up from 570,000 barrels daily in September, Reuters’ Clyde Russell reported today, citing calculations derived from official Beijing data.

Refinery throughput in October averaged 14.94 million barrels daily, the official data showed, while imports ran at a rate of 11.39 million barrels daily, Russell reported.

The refinery throughput figure was a 6.4% increase on the year, suggesting healthy demand for oil, but it was also a decline on September’s 15.26 million bpd average.

The September figure was a two-year high.

Imports, meanwhile, averaged 11.39 million barrels daily in October, adding to local production of 4.24 million barrels daily for a total daily supply rate of 15.63 million barrels.

The difference between supply and demand, as based on refinery runs, is assumed to be going into storage, although some of it might be processed by small refineries that are not included in the official data, Russell notes in his regular reports on the state of China’s oil market.

This stockpiling on the part of China has become a major reason for the relative stability of oil prices.

It is based on the rather reasonable assumption that if China, the world’s largest oil importer, has built a supply cushion in case of disruption, then a surge in demand following such a disruption is unlikely. This assumption has acted as one more lid on prices, along with regular reports about electric vehicles replacing internal combustion engines in the world’s biggest car market.

Over the first ten months of the year, China was stockpiling crude at a daily rate of 900,000 barrels, the Reuters report also said, giving a rather comfortable size to that supply cushion in case of disruption, such as the latest U.S. sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 11:00

Callaway Sells Struggling Topgolf To Los Angeles Private Equity

We raised the question back in 2023: was the Topgolf mania just another consumer hype bubble?

Turns out that may have been the case. Topgolf Callaway Brands had been trying to unload or spin off the Topgolf unit for some time, and now they have.

Bloomberg reports that Callaway has sold a 60% stake in its Topgolf and Toptracer division to Leonard Green & Partners in a deal valuing the business at about $1.1 billion. This means the 60% stake will generate about $770 million for Callaway. 

Callaway originally acquired Topgolf in 2020 for about $2 billion. After the sale closes in 1Q26, the company will rebrand itself as Callaway Golf Company under the ticker "CALY" and refocus on its core golf equipment brands, stepping away from the struggling golf-experience chain.

In September, Golf Digest published a report based on conversations with former Topgolf executives Devin Charhon and Michael Canfield, revealing that Topgolf never achieved a stable flow of returning customers (cost was a major factor).

The former execs left the company to start Blue Jeans, which created the "Golf Ranch" brand, modernizing aging driving ranges and making it more of an actual practice facility for golfers rather than the Togolf experience of fancy screens and lights. It turns out golfers just want to practice.  

Well, that wasn't as planned. 

Golf Ranch sounds more reasonable. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/18/2025 - 10:40