Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 223K initial claims.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 2.0, up from -12.8.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.

Aleksandra Sagan of The Logic reports B.C. pension fund manager creates joint venture to use quantum tech for better investing:

British Columbia Investment Management Corp. said Monday it has joined forces with Quantum Algorithms Institute, a B.C.-based non-profit working to accelerate the adoption of quantum technologies. CEO Gordon J. Fyfe said QAI will help it “prepare for the risks and opportunities ahead.” (The Logic)

Talking point: The two will identify ways to optimize BCI’s portfolio, risk assessment and financial modelling with quantum technologies, as well as improve security standards. The latter has been a focus for BCI for some time. BCI said in its most recent annual report that it is “preparing… to be post-quantum ready, ensuring our data and systems remain secure.” BCI, which manages investments for 32 public sector clients such as pension funds, has $295 billion in gross assets under management, according to its most recent annual report. It has invested in quantum tech previously, backing B.C.-based Photonic Inc. since 2021. 

Bloomberg also covered this story here.

On Monday, BCI issued a press release to state that in has entered into a joint venture with QAI to be "post-quantum ready": 

Joint initiative reinforces British Columbia as a hub for quantum innovation in Canada 

VICTORIA, BC – November 17, 2025 – British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI), one of Canada’s largest institutional investors, and the Quantum Algorithms Institute (QAI), a non-profit organization supporting adoption of quantum technologies in British Columbia, today announced a joint initiative to advance post-quantum readiness.  

“Working with QAI gives us access to world-class quantum expertise as we prepare for the risks and opportunities ahead,” said Gordon J. Fyfe, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at BCI. “Quantum computing will impact how investors around the world protect systems and approach complex investment scenarios. We are positioning BCI to leverage this technology for business advantage as it becomes more widely available.” 

Together, BCI and QAI will work to identify quantum investment applications for portfolio optimization, risk assessment, and financial modeling, while implementing post-quantum security standards to support BCI’s long-term operational resilience. QAI will use the insights gained through this hands-on experience to support quantum preparedness across British Columbia and Canada’s business ecosystems.  

“With quantum computers expected to be commercially viable within three to five years, this collaboration will offer critical learnings that extend beyond BCI,” said Louise Turner, Chief Executive Officer of QAI. “We’re developing playbooks and use cases that can help other organizations – from governments to small businesses – build their own quantum readiness.” 

BCI’s quantum experience extends beyond operations to its global portfolio. This includes investments like Photonic Inc., a British Columbia-based quantum computing company backed since 2021, which offered early insight into the technology’s evolution and commercial potential. The joint initiative with QAI builds on this strong foundation and BCI’s broader commitment to accelerating innovation.  

I suggest you visit Quantum Algorithms Institute's site to understand what they are doing and how they can help BCI improve its investment operations, bolster its investment and operational risk management. 

Before you dismiss this as a bunch of quantum computing malarkey which admittedly was my first impulse, I invite you to read this KPMG insight paper on data safety in the quantum computing age:

Today’s world runs on data, from emails and passwords to financial and medical records, from factories, schools and armies to energy grids and telecommunications networks. And encryption protects this data, preventing criminals and hackers and other bad actors from getting their hands on this precious resource.

While cracking encryption would take a traditional computer billions of years, with the emergence of quantum computing these codes could potentially be broken in hours. It is possible that encrypted data may have already been stolen, with the anticipation that in the next decade or so, quantum computers might be able to decrypt this information. That’s a concerning prospect when you consider that certain types of data should be kept secure for many years or decades. These include health records and financial information, defense designs, autonomous systems and critical infrastructure, like payment systems, telecommunications and energy supply.

Misuse of data has a real-world impact on people. When hackers are able to steal individuals’ identities to misdirect payments (such as house deposits or salaries), apply for credit cards or passports, or file for government benefits, the impacts to respective financial systems could stretch to trillions of dollars. Organizations could fall prey to phishing and malware attacks, leading to business interruption, ransoms and negative publicity.

This is not a future problem but an immediate issue. On the one hand, numerous governments, companies and researchers are racing to scale up their quantum computing systems, with many technology companies producing quantum roadmaps towards large, error-corrected quantum computers. On the other hand, these organizations are also seeking smart ways to make it harder to crack encryption, by producing quantum-safe cryptosystems. Nor is it just a technological threat; there are likely to be regulations that could leave organizations facing penalties for failing to meet encryption standards, as well as being locked out of defense, national security, health and government contracts, as procurement requirements are updated.

In the US, for example, the Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness Actopens in a new tab requires federal government agencies to “adopt technology that will protect against quantum computing attacks.”1 The Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) has updated its guidelines for cryptography and information security.2,3 And in February 2025, Europol hosted a Quantum Safe Financial Forum (QSFF) event, calling on financial institutions and policymakers to prioritize the transition to quantum-safe cryptography.4 Which has been followed by a European Commission transition timeline for critical infrastructure, starting in 2026 and to be completed by 2030.5 As quantum computing evolves, and the cyber threat increases, we can expect to see an increase in industry-specific frameworks, regulations, and best practice guidelines.

Creating a quantum-resilient organization

Encryption is typically implemented by internal IT teams, cloud and software providers. However, despite being totally reliant on encryption, many organizations know relatively little about how and where the data they use is encrypted. This magnifies the challenge of quantum resilience, which now calls for an understanding of both your own cryptographic implementation as well as all dependent systems.

To protect against quantum cyber risk, organizations should adopt post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms, which resist the efforts of powerful quantum computers. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has already made such algorithms available. Transitioning to PQC is a major effort over several years, involving the entire enterprise — not just IT — preferably overseen by a cross-organizational encryption leader.

PQC algorithms would need to be implemented in various software solutions, including key libraries, digital signatures and authentication. Given the scale of the task, it’s important to broaden cyber expertise, plan budgets, and empower teams to manage this increasing risk, as part of a multi-year transition effort.

Organizations should aim to build a cryptographic bill of materials (CBOM), to better understand what encryption is being used, and where. The CBOM lists all the cryptographic assets employed across software (including software-as-a-service), services, and infrastructure — within the enterprise and across the supply chain. It’s also vital to assess the level of risk of each asset, to prioritize high-value data — which varies between sectors. For consumer companies, for example, customer data is paramount; in life sciences, intellectual property is especially valuable. Other organizations may be keen to protect financial, operational, and employee information.

These key efforts support the development of a roadmap for discovery, assessment, management, remediation and monitoring the transition to quantum resilience, and coping with ongoing risk. This requires coordination across the IT estate. With so many players involved in encryption, contractual agreements with third parties should specify appropriate levels of quantum cybersecurity and clarify how the PQC transition can be harmonized. Procurement strategies, whether for devices or software, should also be updated to include quantum-resistant technologies, so that these IT investments can support PQC requirements during their lifetime.

As is already the case it's vital to review data retention policies, to reduce the time that sensitive data is stored and only retain data that’s absolutely necessary, while deleting data no longer needed. To maintain operational continuity, organizations should make appropriate enhancements to security controls (based upon their unique risk profile) to integrate PQC, and to select and test quantum-safe, cryptographically agile solutions in their IT infrastructure, ahead of full deployment.

Get started

It is not yet a full quantum computing world, but it soon will be. As they prepare to adopt PQC, IT leaders should be aware that this is not a standalone project but a transition to a new business-as-usual. It will take several years and impact the entire enterprise, calling for multiple internal and external stakeholders to build a willing coalition. With bad actors always seeking to find ways to break encryption, organizations should continually re-evaluate their defenses. Getting started now, with a carefully managed plan for PQC transition, can help to keep one step ahead, maintain resilience and operations, with safe, secure, data. 

What this tells me is quantum computing is already here, you need to prepare for consequences, thinking strategically to play good defence and offence (seizing opportunities as they arise).

Will BCI's joint venture with QAI make it quantum prepared? I have no idea, at least they got the ball rolling here and other large pension funds will surely follow.

Lastly, if BCI can afford quantum computing, it can afford to pay its tab for Pension Pulse (just sayin').

Below,  within a decade, quantum computers will be able to break virtually any encryption algorithm in use today. What used to be science fiction is on its way to becoming a commercial reality. Once that happens, quantum computers will be able to crack in minutes what was supposed to be unbreakable for more than a century using the most powerful computers available. 

Erik Wood, senior director of cryptography and product security at Infineon, talks about cryptographically relevant computers, how they work, and how that will affect computer architectures and chip design  

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.

From the AIA: ABI October 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms

The ABI score of 47.6 for October indicates that fewer firms reported declining billings this month than in September, when the score was 43.3. In addition, inquiries into new projects increased significantly this month, with the largest share of firms in a year and a half reporting an increase. On the other hand, the value of newly signed design contracts decreased yet again, as projects remain smaller and clients remain hesitant to commit.

Billings softened at firms in all regions of the country in October, except for those in the Midwest, where they were essentially flat for the second consecutive month. Business conditions remained softest at firms located in the West, while the pace of the decline in billings held steady at firms located in the Northeast. Firms located in the South saw conditions weaken further this month, after approaching growth over the summer. The billings decline also accelerated this month at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization, returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year after approaching growth in the third quarter. And conditions remain soft overall at firms with institutional and multifamily residential specializations.
...
The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months.
emphasis added

• Northeast (45.1); Midwest (49.6); South (45.3); West (42.1)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (46.6); institutional (46.3); multifamily residential (46.8)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 47.6 in October, up from 43.3 in September.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.
This index has indicated contraction for 35 of the last 37 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026.
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 39 consecutive months.  This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.

As reported by the House Committee on Ways and Means on October 3, 2025

As ordered reported by the House Committee on Ways and Means on September 17, 2025

As reported by the House Committee on Ways and Means on September 30, 2025

As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on October 21, 2025

As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs on July 30, 2025

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in October, up 0.7% from September’s preliminary pace and up 1.5% last October’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.2% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to report October existing home sales on Thursday. The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

There is also a discussion of R* in the article.

Trump Urges Adoption Of Single Federal Standard On AI Regulation

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said the United States should adopt one federal standard for governing artificial intelligence (AI), saying it’s important for the United States to stay ahead of China in the race for AI dominance.

In a Truth Social post on Nov. 18, Trump said the United States needs a single AI standard rather than “a patchwork of 50 state regulatory regimes,” warning that state-level rules are stifling the country’s AI growth.

“Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the ‘HOTTEST’ in the World, but overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Major Growth ‘Engine’,” he wrote.

Trump said some states tried to “embed DEI ideology into AI models,” producing what he described as “woke AI.” DEI refers to diversity, equity, and inclusion.

“If we don’t, then China will easily catch us in the AI race. Put it in the NDAA, or pass a separate Bill, and nobody will ever be able to compete with America,” he stated, referring to the National Defense Authorization Act.

His statement came amid reports that House Republican leaders were planning to include language in the NDAA that would prevent states from regulating AI.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has opposed the plan, saying that stripping states of AI regulatory power would be “a subsidy to Big Tech” and would block states from “protecting against online censorship of political speech, predatory applications that target children, violations of intellectual property rights, and data center intrusions on power/water resources.”

“The rise of AI is the most significant economic and cultural shift occurring at the moment; denying the people the ability to channel these technologies in a productive way via self-government constitutes federal government overreach and lets technology companies run wild. Not acceptable,” DeSantis stated on X.

AI Dominance Pursued

Since taking office on Jan. 20, Trump has pursued policies aimed at securing U.S. dominance in AI development, including efforts to remove regulatory barriers on AI developers.

Story continues below advertisement

The White House’s “AI Action Plan,” released in July, states that the country seeks to build “the most powerful AI systems in the world,” and recommends that the federal government block AI-related funding to states with AI regulations.

“AI is too far important to smother in bureaucracy at this early stage, whether at the state or Federal level. The Federal government should not allow AI-related Federal funding to be directed toward states with burdensome AI regulations that waste these funds, but should also not interfere with states’ rights to pass prudent laws that are not unduly restrictive to innovation,” it stated.

In July, Trump signed an executive order targeting what he called “woke AI.” The order directs federal agencies to procure only large language models that are “truth-seeking” and politically neutral—AI models that the administration deems “do not manipulate responses in favor of ideological dogmas such as DEI.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 14:25

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, October 28-29, 2025. Excerpt:

In their consideration of monetary policy at this meeting, participants noted that inflation had moved up since earlier in the year and remained somewhat elevated. Participants further noted that available indicators suggested that economic activity had been expanding at a moderate pace. They observed that job gains had slowed this year and that the unemployment rate had edged up but remained low through August. Participants assessed that more recent indicators were consistent with these developments. In addition, they judged that downside risks to employment had risen in recent months. Against this backdrop, many participants were in favor of lowering the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting, some supported such a decision but could have also supported maintaining the level of the target range, and several were against lowering the target range. Those who favored or could have supported a lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate toward a more neutral setting generally observed that such a decision was appropriate because downside risks to employment had increased in recent months and upside risks to inflation had diminished since earlier this year or were little changed. Those who preferred to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at this meeting expressed concern that progress toward the Committee's inflation objective had stalled this year, as inflation readings increased, or that more confidence was needed that inflation was on a course toward the Committee's 2 percent objective, while also noting that longer-term inflation expectations could rise should inflation not return to 2 percent in a timely manner. One participant agreed with the need to move toward a more neutral monetary policy stance but preferred a 1/2 percentage point reduction at this meeting. In light of their assessment that reserve balances had reached or were approaching ample levels, almost all participants noted that it was appropriate to conclude the reduction in the Committee's aggregate securities holdings on December 1 or that they could support such a decision.

In considering the outlook for monetary policy, participants expressed a range of views about the degree to which the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive. Some participants assessed that the Committee's policy stance would be restrictive even after a potential 1/4 percentage point reduction in the policy rate at this meeting. By contrast, some participants pointed to the resilience of economic activity, supportive financial conditions, or estimates of short-term real interest rates as indicating that the stance of monetary policy was not clearly restrictive. In discussing the near-term course of monetary policy, participants expressed strongly differing views about what policy decision would most likely be appropriate at the Committee's December meeting. Most participants judged that further downward adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate as the Committee moved to a more neutral policy stance over time, although several of these participants indicated that they did not necessarily view another 25 basis point reduction as likely to be appropriate at the December meeting. Several participants assessed that a further lowering of the target range for the federal funds rate could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected over the coming intermeeting period. Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year. All participants agreed that monetary policy was not on a preset course and would be informed by a wide range of incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks.

In discussing risk-management considerations that could bear on the outlook for monetary policy, participants generally judged that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and that downside risks to employment were elevated and had increased since the first half of the year. Many participants agreed that the Committee should be deliberate in its policy decisions against the backdrop of these two-sided risks and reduced availability of key economic data. br /> emphasis added

Army Announces Next Steps On Janus Program For Next-Generation Nuclear Energy

As part of next steps for the Janus Program, the Department of Army said that it has selected nine installations for consideration in which to site microreactor power plants, and the Defense Innovation Unit released an Area of Interest to solicit commercial solutions for advanced nuclear power technologies.

The Janus Program, the Army’s next-generation nuclear power program, aims to deliver secure, resilient, and reliable energy to support national defense installations and critical missions in accordance with EO 14299 Deploying Advanced Nuclear Reactor Technologies for National Security. In partnership with the Defense Innovation Unit (DIU), the program will build commercial microreactors through a milestone-based contracting model to accelerate delivery of advanced energy solutions to the warfighters.

Janus Program Site Selection

The Army identified nine sites through comprehensive analysis and on-site assessment to identify optimal locations for initial deployment. The process evaluated mission critical installations, energy requirements and resiliency gaps, power infrastructure, environmental and technical considerations. These sites mark the first step in expanding national energy resilience through next-generation nuclear technology. Listed in alphabetical order, the selected sites are:

1. Fort Benning
2. Fort Bragg
3. Fort Campbell
4. Fort Drum
5. Fort Hood
6. Fort Wainwright
7. Holston Army Ammunition Plant
8. Joint Base Lewis-McChord
9. Redstone Arsenal

While the final number and location for these microreactors on Army installations will be determined as part of the acquisition process, the Army is committed to maximizing the number of sites based on technical feasibility, site suitability, and available resources.

“These early site selections align with the Department of War’s goal of accelerating the pace of deploying on-site nuclear generation at our installations,” said HON Jordan Gillis, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment. “Through the use of the Army’s unique nuclear regulatory authorities, we are deploying a resilient, secure, and reliable energy supply for critical defense operations and in support of the most lethal land-based fighting force in the world.”

Microreactor power plants represent a significant technological advancement, in safety, security and waste management. They are safe by design, not by intervention protocols. The Janus Program is leveraging the Department of Energy and its network of National Labs to ensure the appropriate expertise is applied to the evaluation of proposed designs, operational plans, and emergency preparedness plans.

The rollout of Janus technology will occur in stages as the Army validates lessons learned and ensures safe, efficient implementation. These projects will be self-contained and protected appropriately. All projects will comply with the applicable federal, state, and local regulations, and leverage the safety features inherent in next-generation reactor designs. We do not anticipate any significant impact to installation land use.

The Army shares a commitment to public safety and transparency with our host communities and recognizes that the communities surrounding these installations have vested interest in their operations. Specific timelines for each location will be announced in future updates, as the team cooperates with military installations, residents, and the surrounding communities to keep all stakeholders informed. The Army is committed to providing transparent information throughout the planning process and welcomes public engagement and feedback.

Defense Innovation Unit Area of Interest

The Army has executed a Memorandum of Agreement with the DIU to utilize its Commercial Solutions Opening (CSO) process and Other Transaction Authority (OTA) to begin the solicitation process which will result in awarding select vendors Other Transactions (OTs) to execute on the Janus Program goals. An Area of Interest (AOI) notification has been released via DIU’s website https://www.diu.mil/work-with-us/open-solicitations to solicit industry concepts for deployment of advanced nuclear technologies. The AOI will gather technical and operational information from industry regarding deployment and use of microreactors on military installations to begin the CSO process.

"We’ve established a great partnership with the U.S. Army. DIU is ready and excited to leverage our rapid CSO process to execute the Janus Program in collaboration with our government and industry partners,” said DIU Energy Portfolio Director, Dr. Andrew Higier. “This collaboration will deliver advanced nuclear energy to Army installations, ensuring their most critical missions always have resilient and ready power."

“The Janus Program is taking its first step toward pairing specific nuclear reactor designs to specific U.S. Army installations,” said Dr. Jeff Waksman, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Army for Installations, Energy and Environment. “We will move to bending metal as quickly as possible, leveraging the enormous amount of technical talent gathered to execute this program.”

The release of the AOI and site selection demonstrate the Janus Program’s accelerated pace for the revitalization of American industrial capacity and technological leadership. By prioritizing the optimal installations to initially support microreactor power plants and working with industry to efficiently deploy next generation nuclear capabilities on our installations, these initiatives represent a substantial investment in the future of energy security for the Army and the Nation.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 13:45

"What Has Become Of Us": Rosie O'Donnell May Have Just Handed Trump A Golden Defamation Lawsuit

Authored by Jonthan Turley,

I have previously expressed skepticism over some defamation cases against the media brought by President Donald Trump under existing case law. However, comedian Rosie O’Donnell may have supplied the President with a another defamation case if she cannot back up sensational claims made against the President to her 2.9 million TikTok followers. She states as a fact that the President is an “adjudicated rapist” and settled child abuse cases.

O’Donnell seems to spend much of her days in a constant rave about Trump, Republicans, and the demise of the United States from her new home in Ireland. That is fine and an exercise of free speech. However, it may have crossed the line into defamation in her latest posting.

O’Donnell stated:

“Did you think it a million years that they would reelect a man who orchestrated an insurrection against the government? They would reelect that guy with all the charges of sex abuse? — the adjudicated rapist…And then I just saw this thing today about all the cases he’s settled with children, children’s families, accusations about him, that he chose to settle.”

She added:

“When are we going to be able to go, ‘We’re grown up enough to understand that this kind of deviant, psychotic, mentally ill behavior goes on at the highest level sometimes, and no matter where it goes on, it is our duty to stop it,’” O’Donnell continued in her unhinged rant…Shame, people. Shame on what has become of us.”

Notably, at least eleven months ago, O’Donnell called Trump a “rapist” and a “serial pedophile rapist.”

Trump previously sued over the claim that he is a rapist. He lost such a case against E. Jean Carroll after a judge ruled that her claim to have been raped by Trump was “substantially true.” The judge wrote: “The only issue on which the jury did not find in Ms Carroll’s favour was whether she proved that Mr Trump ‘raped’ her within the narrow, technical meaning of that term in the New York penal law.”

Nevertheless, Trump was not legally “adjudicated” to be a rapist. The addition of the word “adjudicated” could move the claim outside of mere opinion.

Even without that word, it is considered potentially defamatory to claim that Trump is, in fact, a rapist despite the earlier ruling in New York. MSNBC and the show “Morning Joe,” for example, quickly retracted a statement that Trump was a “rapist.”

The earlier denial of the defamation case certainly would help O’Donnell, but it is not dispositive. More importantly, that is not all that she said.

The second claim is that Trump settled with the “children’s families” over abuse cases.

It is not clear what the basis for this allegation is, but Reuters reported months ago about fake headlines on the Internet claiming that prosecutors were considering “child molestation charges” against Trump.

It is not clear if O’Donnell can produce support for the claim. If she cannot, it would certainly constitute “per se” defamation.

The common law has long recognized per se categories of defamation where damages are presumed and special damages need not be proven.  These include: (1) disparaging a person’s professional character or standing; (2) alleging a person is unchaste; (3) alleging that a person has committed a criminal act or act of moral turpitude; (4) alleging a person has a sexual or loathsome disease; and (5) attacking a person’s business or professional reputation.

Claiming that Trump settled child abuse cases would certainly trigger a couple of these categories.

The United Kingdom is generally a better jurisdiction to bring defamation cases than the United States, which has stronger free speech and free press protections.

In the United States, any such action would have to be brought under the higher standard. In New York Times v. Sullivan, the Supreme Court established the actual malice standard, requiring public officials to shoulder the higher burden of proving defamation. Under that standard, an official would have to show either actual knowledge of its falsity or a reckless disregard of the truth. That standard was later extended to public figures.

If O’Donnell had no credible sources for this claim, it would appear to be clearly a reckless disregard of the truth.

That she said this to millions of followers only magnifies the general damages presumed in such cases.

Unless O’Donnell can argue truth as a defense with credible support for such settlements, she may have just given Trump a golden opportunity to pursue his long-time critic. There is no love lost between these two, but there could soon be a defamation action.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 11:30

CBO's website features easy-to-use modeling tools for exploring alternative legislative and policy scenarios. When practicable, CBO posts data, computer code, and documentation associated with its models on the web-based platform GitHub.

Cloudflare Blames Database Error For Outage That Took Down 20% Of The Web

Authored by Brayden Lindrea via CoinTelegraph.com,

Internet services provider Cloudflare says that a fault in its bot detection system triggered an outage that took down around 20% of webpages, including several crypto platforms.

Cloudflare said in a post-mortem statement on Tuesday that a “feature file” used by its Bot Management System to fight off cyberattacks grew beyond its normal limit, leading to a failure in Cloudflare’s software.

“We are sorry for the impact to our customers and to the Internet in general. Given Cloudflare’s importance in the Internet ecosystem any outage of any of our systems is unacceptable.”

The company initially suspected the incident was caused by a hyper-scale Distributed Denial of Service attack, but confirmed there was no cyberattack or malicious activity.

Cloudflare handles roughly 20% of internet traffic and powers around one-third of the top 10,000 websites, apps and services.

Its outage took out the websites for Coinbase, Blockchain.com, Ledger, BitMEX, Toncoin, Arbiscan, and DefiLlama, as well as X and ChatGPT, leading some crypto commentators to remark on the crypto industry’s reliance on centralized systems, some of which also went offline when Amazon Web Services suffered a network outage last month. 

Source: Nader Dabit

A spokesperson for EthStorage, which offers a product allowing Ethereum to be used as a web server, told Cointelegraph that the AWS and Cloudflare outages show “centralized infrastructure will always create single points of failure.”

“A complete decentralized web stack is needed more than ever,” the company said.

Vitalik Buterin wants decentralization prioritized

Last Wednesday, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin authored a “Trustless Manifesto,” which called on industry builders to never sacrifice decentralization in pursuit of adoption.

Buterin and Ethereum Foundation researchers Yoav Weiss and Marissa Posner, said crypto platforms sacrifice trustlessness from the moment that they integrate a hosted node or centralized relayer, explaining that while it feels harmless, each new checkpoint becomes a potential chokepoint.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 10:45

Surprise Crude Draw Stabilizes Oil Prices After Early Plunge On Russia Peace Talk Headlines

Oil prices tumbled overnight following API's report suggesting a large build in crude inventories, , which would take oil stored in commercial tanks to the highest level in more than five months, if confirmed by official data this morning.

The supply buildup may help cushion the impact of US sanctions against Russian producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC that are set to kick in within days, part of efforts to raise the pressure against Moscow to end the war in Ukraine.

An Axios report that Washington has been working in consultation with the Kremlin to draft a new plan also eased supply concerns, though Moscow denied any talks.

Additionally, Politico reported that the White House is expecting a new peace agreement with Russia by the end of November, which could bring the war with Ukraine to an end.

While on the topic of Russia, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told journalists that while the country has under-utilized its OPEC+ allocation recently, within the coming months, Russia will be able to increase oil production to the level permitted under the OPEC+ agreement, he said.

"I think within the next few months, perhaps by the end of the year, maybe at the beginning of next year, we will see how the companies [respond]," he said.

"In November, production will be higher than in October. I cannot say exactly by how much right now, but there is an increase."

So will the official data confirm API's report?

API

• Crude +4.4mm

• Cushing -800k

• Gasoline +1.5mm

• Distillates +600k

DOE

• Crude -3.426mm

• Cushing -698k

• Gasoline +2.327mm - first build in seven weeks

• Distillates +171k

Shocker: while API reported a big build, the official data showed a large crude inventory drawdown last week. Additionally, Gasoline stocks rose for the first time in seven weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

Cushing stocks are hovering near 'tank bottoms' - so much for the SPR rebuild?

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production remains near record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI fell to around $59 overnight and is stabilizing there after the official data report...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, Prices were also pressured after failure to break past their 50-day moving average in recent days.

The global benchmark came within two cents of that marker on Tuesday, before retreating sharply on Wednesday.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 10:38

Rearranging The Chairs

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Rearranging the Chairs

Tuesday was another down day for most markets as the US weekly ADP jobs report suggested the labor backdrop is weakening and housing starts sagged. As the FT puts it, ‘Oracle’s astonishing $300bn OpenAI deal is now valued at minus $60bn.’

Here Is The Batshit Insane Chart That Sent Oracle Stock Soaring 25% After Hours https://t.co/Haus5Ueybg

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 9, 2025

Wednesday is mixed so far in Asia for bonds: Australia is seeing its 10-year yield down around 2bps and Japan’s equivalent is up 3bp – and neither is what their economies need right now; but there as elsewhere, with K-shapes all over, nasty politics, and worrying geopolitics, what is? That question it tied up with ‘who is?’

Treasury Secretary Bessent just said he doesn’t want to be Fed Chair but that person will hopefully be named by Xmas – Trump thinks he already knows who he wants . Does anybody think it’s going to be a strong, independent, gnostic, hawk deliberately ignorant of geopolitics, who will focus on 2% CPI and clash with the White House and Treasury? I thought not.

Politico reports Spain and Germany are gunning to head the ECB in 2027, with former Bank of Spain governor de Cos, now running the BIS, in a strong position - though moving him could cost Europe its BIS leadership if Trump wants an American to run the central bankers’ central bank. Bundesbank president Nagel is mentioned, as is him recently annoying Chancellor Merz in expressing support for Eurobonds for defence purposes. Germany has more hawkish candidates – or it could support one from elsewhere, such as former president of the Dutch central bank Knot.

Markets will soon focus on this rearranging of Chairs… and that it’s on the Titanic(?) As noted yesterday, the White House sees the neoliberal, central-bank centric, inflation-targeting world no longer exists: so, logically, it won’t exist under the next Fed Chair. Monetary policy and fiscal policy will (further) conjoin, as will FX, trade, defence, industrial, and energy policy – and others to boot. Covering any of those areas will require a real understanding of that connection and the nested hierarchy of national (or bloc) Grand Macro Strategy driving them.  

Is that just a US issue? No. The PBOC operates in a similar fashion, so the world’s two largest economies would be outside the neoliberal norm. The Bank of England could follow under Reform. Even Europe will be forced to grapple with serious structural issues, which the Draghi Report argue require bold, original, joined-up thinking - and it’s not as if the ECB hasn’t changed hugely since its inception.

The real issue will be finding someone who can Chair a central bank as it will need to be run when existing candidates have, by default, been trained on how it used to need to be run. That’s not going to be easy. A related issue will be finding financial media and analysts willing to keep up with this dizzying set of conflating changes: that’s also going to be a hard sell when most of the specialised and siloed industry is built around CPI or payrolls higher/lower games.

Meanwhile, in geopolitics and related geoeconomics what the BOJ, Fed, ECB, financial media, and markets are all going to have to grapple is long and growing:

Japan issued a safety alert for its citizens in China as that diplomatic row escalates, with neither side seen willing to back down. Japanese businesses are bunkering down for the expected fallout. That’s as the US Ambassador to Japan publicly reiterated that the US will defend it if needed, in regards to the disputed Senkaku islands, which the Chinese coastguard just sailed past, as the PLA-N’s Fujian aircraft carrier completes its first training exercise after entering service.

Politico argues trench warfare in Ukraine is now far worse as drones create a “hellscape”. The FT underlines it takes 45 days(!) to move a tank from Rotterdam to the EU-Ukraine border due to infrastructure issues: a “military Schengen” is seen needed, alongside vast budgets – as a UK review has found Britain is “not ready to defend itself.”

The structure of the €140bn EU loan to Ukraine secured by Russian assets is seen by critics as deliberately designed to seize the underlying collateral as Ukraine will never be able to repay: how does that help the ‘liberal world order’ or hopes to extend the global reach of the Euro? That’s as President Zelenskyy will today visit Turkey to try to “reinvigorate” US peace talks which are likely to leave the EU holding the can even if they succeed.

In terms of EU ‘strategic autonomy’, Rio Tinto has placed its €3bn lithium project in Serbia on indefinite “care and maintenance”; Norway is furious with after being rejected for an EU metals-trade tariff exemption; and Macron stated the EU refuses to be either a US or China “vassal” in AI. S'il vous plait, use “Europe preference” to build your own system, alienating the US, at a cost of trillions of Euros, while pushing electricity prices even higher, as generals make clear AI is essential for the military, and only one standard can be used, so if the US stays in NATO, it’s from the US.

China’s PLA media accused the US of “gunboat diplomacy” vs Venezuela, as Maduro says he’s “ready to talk” to the White House. That ‘s as the Wall Street Journal notes ‘The ‘JPMorgan Boys’ Behind the U.S. Bailout for Argentina’, where “President Javier Milei’s administration is packed with former Wall Street traders trying to steer market forces.” Forces, certainly: then markets.

Trump designated Saudi Arabia as the latest US major non-NATO ally, saying MBS “knew nothing” about Khashoggi’s murder, and “things happen.” That’s as the Crown Prince pledged to invest $1 trillion in the US, reportedly pressed it to intervene to end the Sudan war and said he wants to join the Abraham Accords, which still requires a path to a Palestinian state. He now gets F-35s (years from now, and over Israeli objections) and US AI chips.

A US report argued the government needs an overhaul to compete with China: logically, yes, as it’s revealed Wright USA, an insurance company that insured FBI and CIA agents, was acquired by China's Fosun Group, giving it access to the personal data of US secret service employees. Yet a new US body would also be a single-point of failure – and now do everyone else.

In the economy, the FT notes ‘the growing problem with China’s unreliable numbers’ – yes, and now do everywhere else, recalling these are what central-bank technocrats and market analysts are supposed to work with. The Wall Street Journal adds that this is ‘The Most Joyless Tech Revolution Ever: AI Is Making Us Rich and Unhappy.’

In European politics, Germany’s Merz is facing a conservative rebellion over pension reforms, France still doesn’t have a budget, France and Germany are clashing over a controversial EU budget structure, Danish voters are turning on PM Frederiksen over housing costs (says Politico), and Ireland’s Donohoe has resigned as the Eurogroup president to run the World Bank.

In US politics, Congress approved the release of the Epstein files. Once Trump signs, expect a flood of headline-grabbing info, or at least that which is not redacted for legal or national security reasons, which the legislation grants AG Bondi the power to do.  

One might think this has nothing to do with markets or Fed Chairs or geopolitics and geoeconomics. Until one sees an already-released Epstein email forced former Treasury Secretary and nearly-Fed Chair and former Harvard President Larry Summers to step away from public life because it revealed he asked Epstein for advice on how to seduce a Chinese economist mentee - who was the daughter of a senior CCP official, a former Vice Minister of Finance, and at that time chairing the World Bank-rival Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank HQ-ed in Beijing.

But let’s all talk about 2% CPI – clearly that’s where all the real action is.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 10:20

MP Materials Stock Spikes After JV Deal With Saudi Arabia's Flagship Mining Company

MP Materials stock is up more than 6% heading into the cash open after the company announced a rare earth refinery joint venture with Saudi Arabia's flagship mining company.

MP, the U.S. Department of War, and Saudi Arabia’s state mining giant Maaden have announced a joint venture to build a rare earth refinery in Saudi Arabia, marking one of the first major projects under a new U.S.–Saudi framework for critical mineral cooperation, the company wrote in a release this morning.

The venture is intended to diversify and stabilize the global rare earth supply chain, reducing reliance on adversarial sources while supporting manufacturing and defense needs in both countries and their allies.

The refinery will process rare earth feedstock from Saudi Arabia and other regions, producing separated light and heavy rare earth oxides for U.S., Saudi, and allied markets.

MP Materials CEO James Litinsky said, “We are honored that the U.S. government asked MP to partner on a project of this magnitude and importance for America and its allies,” adding that the agreement “underscores MP Materials’ role as an American national champion.” Maaden CEO Bob Wilt called the JV “a significant step forward in the development of this important global sector,” emphasizing its alignment with the Kingdom’s economic ambitions.

The structure of the venture ensures U.S. oversight, with MP and the DoW jointly holding a targeted 49% stake and Maaden holding at least 51%. The DoW will provide non-recourse financing for the U.S. share, while MP contributes technical expertise and global sourcing and marketing capabilities. MP is also in discussions to collaborate on magnet manufacturing in Saudi Arabia.

The deal complements MP’s ongoing multibillion-dollar public-private partnership with the DoW in the United States, including major investments in domestic refining, magnet manufacturing, and workforce expansion. Together, these efforts expand MP’s global footprint and deepen U.S.–Saudi economic and security ties while advancing a more resilient rare earth supply chain.

The news comes after a rare earth deal between the U.S. and China has still yet to be reached, as we wrote days ago. 

Despite Washington’s fanfare around the US–China “truce,” there is still no real rare-earth deal. China hasn’t clarified when it will issue the “general licenses” it promised, leaving exporters and buyers in wait-and-see mode. Analysts warn Beijing can use the licensing system as leverage, and, as Alicia Garcia Herrero put it, “The deal is far from done.” The White House may call the pledge a “de facto removal” of China’s curbs, but nothing material has changed.

This continued uncertainty has reinforced US concerns about dependence on Chinese supply chains and likely added momentum to the MP Materials–DoW–Maaden venture. With the China talks dragging on and confidence fading, Washington is accelerating efforts to secure non-Chinese refining capacity—making the Saudi joint venture a timely strategic hedge rather than an isolated project.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 09:50

The post The Rich People Who Own the Media Want Generations to Fight, Not Classes appeared first on CEPR.

Futures Rebound After 4 Day Slide With Nvidia Earnings On Deck

After 4 days of steep declines, futures are finally higher ahead of Nvidia earnings, with AI bulls hoping for strong numbers to provide respite from the market selloff. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.3% higher and Nasdaq futs gains 0.4%, both bracing for big moves later: NVDA alone has accounted for almost 20% of S&P 500 gains this year. FOMC minutes and a batch of retailer earnings are also due. Pre-mkt, Mag 7 names are mostly higher: NVDA (+1.4%) leads gains while AAPL (-0.1bp) is dragging the other end; semis are higher, too as the AI theme is seeing a pre-mkt bid. Cyclicals are flat versus Defensives with Fins/Materials and HC leading their respective factors higher. The dollar edges higher, with Aussie and kiwi at the bottom of G-10 scoreboard; USDJPY spiked above 156 as the yen is flooded with devaluation fears again. Treasury 10-year yield dips 2bps to 4.11% even as the yield curve bear steepens. In other assets, Bitcoin’s slide is continuing. According to JPM, the market setup appears to be poised for an ‘Everything Rally’ as the market receives new macro data (Fed Mins and Mtge Apps) and old data (Trade) before the NVDA print. Today's US economic calendar includes the August trade balance (8:30am); the Fed speaker slate includes Miran (10am), Barkin (12:45pm) and Williams (2pm). Minutes of FOMC’s Oct. 28-29 meeting are due at 2pm

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stock are mostly higher (Alphabet +1.6%, Tesla +0.9%, Nvidia +1.4%, Amazon +0.4%, Meta +0.05%, Microsoft -0.09%, Apple -0.1%).

• Agios Pharmaceuticals (AGIO) tumbles 37% after the company’s Phase 3 trial of mitapivat in patients 16 and older with sickle-cell disease met one primary endpoint but missed another.
• Constellation Energy Corp. (CEG) is up 2% as its plan to restart its shuttered Three Mile Island nuclear plant is getting $1 billion in backing from the US government as the Trump administration pushes to add more atomic power on the electric grid.
• DoorDash (DASH) rises 2% after Jefferies upgraded the stock to buy from hold, with the analyst noting that the food delivery company’s annual forecast helped lower expectations, providing flexibility for both long-term investments and upside to estimates.
• Dycom Industries (DY) gains 6% after saying it will acquire Power Solutions, one of the Mid-Atlantic’s largest electrical contractors serving data centers.
• La-Z-Boy (LZB) shares are up 11% after the home furniture retailer reported both sales and adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat Wall Street’s expectations.
• Lowe’s (LOW) rises 6% as adjusted EPS and gross margin for the third quarter topped expectations, and comparative sales, while short of the consensus estimate, were better than feared after Home Depot’s report on Tuesday.
• Plug Power Inc. (PLUG) sinks 19% on the green hydrogen company’s plans for a private offering of $375 million in convertible senior notes due 2033.
• SEMrush Holdings (SEMR) soars 69% after the WSJ reported that Adobe is nearing a $1.9 billion deal to acquire the company.
• Unity Software (U) gains 8% after the company announced it is working with Epic Games to bring Unity games into Fortnite.

In corporate news, South Korean antitrust regulators were said to have visited the Seoul offices of Arm Holdings this week as part of an inquiry into its licensing practices, following a complaint by Qualcomm. The US government is providing $1 billion in backing to Constellation Energy’s plan to restart its Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania.

The S&P 500 has lost more than 3% this month as the tech giants that powered much of 2025’s gains came under pressure. Nvidia’s results, due after the close, are seen as a bellwether for whether lofty valuations and massive capital spending in artificial intelligence remain justified.

For Benoit Peloille, chief investment officer at Natixis Wealth Management, the recent retreat “could easily morph into a 10% to 15% correction” for the S&P 500. “I’m not sure that even very good results from Nvidia would be enough to prevent that,” he said.

Comments at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore are largely cautious, with Goldman Sachs President John Waldron saying the market could pull back further, Atlas Merchant Capital’s Bob Diamond talking about a “healthy correction” and Algebris Investments’ CEO Davide Serra warning of a “significant correction” for big AI stocks.

Others are staying positive. Fidelity International fund manager Joseph Zhang sees AI spending and usage as “still in the early stage of the party.” As for Nvidia numbers, analysts are estimating more than 50% growth for both net income and sales for the quarter (more in our full preview to follow). And despite all the talk of stretched tech valuations, the stock is now trading at about 29x forward earnings, far below the 10-year average of 35x.

The big question is how the market will interpret the numbers. JPMorgan strategists see room for Nvidia to zoom higher on a beat-and-raise and recommend buying call spreads. Barclays strategists, meanwhile, note the stock has posted negative one-week returns following four of the last five earnings releases. The options markets implies a 7% swing in either direction post-earnings.

Microsoft, Amazon.com, Alphabet and Meta — which account for more than 40% of Nvidia’s sales — are projected to boost combined AI spending 34% to $440 billion over the next year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The risk is that such projections could falter if major AI players, including OpenAI, scale back their commitments. Options suggest an earnings-related move of about 7%, signaling the big potential impact on the market if the results deviate.

The recent slide has made the stock more attractive, said Louis Puga, a fund manager at Societe de Gestion Prevoir and holder of Nvidia shares. “Paying 26 times for Nvidia’s next-year profits, sorry but I don’t see a bubble there,” Puga said. “We are like at the start of a gold rush: Nvidia is supplying the shovels and it doesn’t matter who finds the gold.”

Elsewhere, Elon Musk returned to the White House on Tuesday evening in a sign that tensions between Trump and the world’s richest man have thawed. Trump also gave Saudi Arabia’s crown prince a lavish reception in Washington. Trump said he thinks he’s identified his choice to be the next chair of the Fed, while asserting people are holding him back from firing Powell.

Investors will also be watching the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting last month. The unwinding of expectations for a December interest-rate cut has added to the market malaise, with traders now seeing less than a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction. 

“We expect the minutes to show a deeply divided Fed with concerns over a weaker employment picture, but sticky inflation,” wrote Mohit Kumar, chief economist and strategist for Europe at Jefferies.

European equities edged higher on Wednesday with media and mining stocks leading gains, while the biggest laggards are utilities and real estate shares. Stoxx 600 gain 0.1% to 562.58 with 222 members down, 370 up, and 8 little changed. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Rotork shares gain as much as 5.2%, the most since early August, after the valve manufacturer announced a new £50m share buyback and delivered a “very healthy performance” in the four months to the end of October, according to Jefferies
• NKT shares jump as much as 12%, the most since April and to a fresh record high, after the Danish cable manufacturer reported its latest earnings and presented new 2030 targets
• WH Smith shares rise as much as 4.7%, reversing an initial slide, as analysts find some positives amid the publication of an independent review by Deloitte that led to the resignation of CEO Carl Cowling
• SMA Solar surges as much as 13%, hitting the highest since June 2024, as Jefferies upgrades the renewable energy equipment firm to buy, saying it has “weathered the worst”
• European defense companies slipped in Wednesday lunchtime trading as Politico reported that the White House is on the brink of unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia that officials say will bring war with Ukraine to an end
• Enel shares drop as much as 2.4% while Endesa falls as much as 3.1% after the pair were cut to underperform from sector perform at RBC, with expectations “looking too optimistic” and valuations too high
• Kering shares drop as much as 4%, most in nearly two weeks, after Chief Executive Officer Luca de Meo said the company must reduce its reliance on its flagship Gucci brand
• Vivendi slumped on Wednesday after Le Monde reported that billionaire Vincent Bolloré’s eponymous holding company could escape having to pay anything to compensate minority shareholders over the recent split of the group
• Interparfums shares fall as much as 11% to the lowest level since October 2020, after the French maker of personal care products didn’t provide a sales forecast for next year on the back of the current economic and geopolitical backdrop

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, heading for a four-day losing streak as investors stayed cautious ahead of Nvidia’s earnings and lingering doubts over the durability of the AI-driven rally. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.2%, with Samsung, Xiaomi and TSMC among the biggest drags. Losses in South Korea and Australia offset gains in China.  Hang Seng Tech Index falls about 1% and Kospi drifts lower. Japanese and mainland China indexes are broadly steady.

In FX, the dollar edges marginally firmer, with Aussie and kiwi at the bottom of G-10 scoreboard.

In rates, treasury 10-year yield hovers little changed around 4.11% ahead of Wednesday’s 20-year bond auction and FOMC meeting minutes release; German gilts are about 2bps richer on the day; gilt curve pivots steeper around little-changed 10-year sector. Australian yields ease 1-2 bps across the curve. JGB futures pare losses after 20-year auction draws demand in line with 12-month average. UK front-end outperforms as more easing by Bank of England is priced in after October UK services inflation slowed more than forecast; UK 2-year yields down around 2.5bp. Treasury auctions resume with $16 billion 20-year bond sale at 1pm, with $19 billion 10-year TIPS ahead Thursday. WI 20-year yield near 4.705% is ~20bp cheaper than last month’s, which stopped through by 1.2bp

In commodities, Brent crude futures are near $64.70; gold rises to near $4,090 an ounce. Bitcoin slides below $91k as investors pulled more than half a billion dollars from BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust on Tuesday, the largest single-day outflow since the fund’s debut. Bitcoin has fallen almost 30% from a record high set in October, entering oversold territory on a technical RSI measure.

The US economic calendar includes August trade balance (8:30am). Fed speaker slate includes Miran (10am), Barkin (12:45pm) and Williams (2pm). Minutes of FOMC’s Oct. 28-29 meeting are due at 2pm

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.4%
• Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 -0.2%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.13%
• VIX -0.8 points at 23.9
• Bloomberg Dollar Index +0.2% at 1221.39
• euro -0.1% at $1.1569
• WTI crude -0.6% at $60.39/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump said he would formally designate Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally after meeting with Mohammed bin Salman. The countries signed several agreements and made progress on a long-sought nuclear technology-sharing deal. BBG
• The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, report US and Russian officials. Axios
• Trump posted "Investment in AI is helping to make the U.S. Economy the “HOTTEST” in the World — But overregulation by the States is threatening to undermine this Growth Engine...We MUST have one Federal Standard instead": Truth Social.
• Scott Bessent said Trump will interview top three candidates for Fed chair after Thanksgiving and he may announce his pick before Christmas. BBG
• Foreign holdings of US Treasuries dipped slightly in September from record highs, though biggest holder Japan increased its portfolio. BBG
• Tesla CEO Musk and NVIDIA CEO Huang are set to participate in a panel at the US-Saudi investment forum on November 19th: Reuters.
• Elon Musk's xAI is said to be in advanced talks to raise USD 15bln in new equity at a USD 230bln valuation, according to WSJ sources.
• China has reportedly reimposed an import ban on Japanese seafood just weeks after lifting it, and warns Tokyo of ‘further action’ if Takaichi doesn’t budge on Taiwan stand. SCMP
• Japanese government bond yields have hit multiyear highs, driven by fears that the government could unveil a large economic stimulus package that will place even more stress on the country’s ailing fiscal position. WSJ
• Thoughts into NVDA (Goldman) - We have positioning 8 out of 10.  Stock has been consolidating for the better part of ~4-months with the stock at the same levels it was before print in August as investors digest rapidly evolving AI news flow, with an uptick in caution around the theme in recent weeks ...   which points to somewhat cleaner positioning into these set of numbers. Investors likely looking for another beat/raise print vs consensus Revenues of ~$55bn in Oct and ~$62bn in January – for context, Nvidia has delivered more "normalized" beat sizes lately (e.g. beat topline by ~1-3% the last few qtrs). Some investor debate on the likely “incrementality” of this print given recent commentary from NVDA at GTC (e.g. ~$500bn) -- on this point, the stock has only moved +/- ~1-3% (t+1) on 3 of 4 print.
• UK Oct CPI was inline on core at +3.4% (down from +3.5% in Sept) while services ran a bit behind the Street at +4.5% (down from +4.7% and vs. the Street +4.6%), cementing expectations for a BOE rate cut next month. WSJ
• Target trimmed its 2025 profit forecast (TGT -195bps premkt), signaling that its turnaround push is going to take more time as it deals with markdowns and soft demand. Shares fell premarket. Lowe’s reported profit that beat (LOW +558bps premkt), helped by consumer spending on home renovations. BBG
• JPMorgan's 2026 outlook note sees Fed rate cuts supporting global equities and credit, with long-term Treasury yields likely to remain range-bound and multi-asset portfolios set for another year of solid returns.

Trade/Tariffs

• The White House stated that the US and Saudi Arabia have agreed to increase engagement on trade issues in the coming weeks, with an agreement secured for Saudi Arabia to purchase nearly 300 American tanks. President Trump approved a major defence sale package, including future F-35 deliveries. Key Saudi-US achievements include a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, advancements in critical minerals cooperation, and a landmark AI memorandum of understanding (MOU).
• The White House confirmed that US President Trump is set to speak at the US-Saudi investment forum on Wednesday at 12:00 EST (17:00 GMT) in Washington.
• Dutch government says it has suspended intervention at Nexperia as a show of goodwill, via Reuters citing sources. We are positive about the measures taken by China to ensure supply of chips. Will continue to engage in constructive talks with China.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk

APAC stocks were choppy, cautious, and eventually traded subdued, as the region held a tentative stance ahead of the FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings. ASX 200 printed on either side of the unchanged mark with limited news flow in the region. Wage Price Index data came in as expected, producing little market reaction. The index found support from gains in gold miners after the metal bounced from support around USD 4,000/oz. Nikkei 225 experienced choppy trade, swinging between gains and losses. Following modest opening gains, the index quickly turned negative within the first 30 minutes as JGB yields continued to rise, while Japan navigated ongoing tensions with China and PM Takaichi's fiscal package. Nikkei thereafter moved to session highs above 49,000 before trimming those gains once again. KOSPI saw a sharp acceleration in losses shortly after the open (-2.2% at one point), driven by declines in its heavily-exposed tech sector, with Samsung Electronics falling some 3% at one point. KOSPI thereafter trimmed a bulk of its losses but remained negative. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened with modest, cautious gains, in contrast to the more negative tone in Japan and South Korea, although the former later conformed to the global tech losses, whilst the latter gave up initial modest gains.

Top Asian News

• Japanese Finance Minister Katayama says she held meeting from perspective of maintaining close government and BoJ coordination; reconfirmed technical tweak to BoJ-Government joint statement, and no change to substance. No specific discussion on FX.
• China's Foreign Ministry says Japan's PM Takaichi's "erroneous remarks" about Taiwan has fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations
• Japan's government plans to spend over JPY 20tln in an economic package, according to Kyodo News.
• Japanese PM Takaichi's advisory panel member Kataoka said the BoJ is not likely to raise rates before March and estimated that a budget of JPY 20tln is needed for this fiscal year, via Bloomberg.
• Former TSMC (2330 TT) Senior VP Dr. Wei-Jen Lo is rumoured to have obtained the latest data on TSMC’s 2nm advanced chip manufacturing processes before joining Intel (INTC), according to MoneyUDN.

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are modestly mixed and trade on either side of the unchanged mark, as sentiment attempts to stabilise following recent losses - but ultimately traders remain tentative ahead of FOMC Minutes and NVIDIA earnings. European sectors are mixed. At the top of sectors is Media (+1.5%), Energy (+1.0%) and Food and Beverage (+0.5%).  At the bottom of sectors is Utilities (-0.9%), Banks (-0.6%), and Insurance (-0.4%), once again newsflow has been light to explain the downtick in those sectors.

Top European News

• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly considering shielding small businesses from tax rises, according to The Times.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is reportedly looking at ways to cut household energy bills, via Politico citing sources; targeting a cut of GBP 150-170/yr on annual household energy bulls. Cut to VAT on energy bills is also being considered.

FX

• DXY is a little firmer and trades within a narrow, but fairly busy, 99.49 to 99.79 range. Sentiment continues to remain tentative ahead of the key risk events today (NVIDIA/FOMC Minutes) and into September’s NFP report on Thursday. G10s are currently broadly flat/lower vs the USD, with clear underperformance in the Antipodeans. On the Fed, US Treasury Secretary Bessent said US President Trump may announce the next Fed Chair before Christmas, via Fox News.
• EUR is flat/mildly lower vs USD and trades within a narrow 1.1566 to 1.1597 range, stopping just shy of the round 1.1600 mark; a low for the day which marks a fresh WTD trough, but towards the midpoint of last week’s confines. EZ HICP Final Metrics were left unrevised – no move on the report.
• Overnight, USD/JPY traded choppily within a tight range, with the yen showing modest strength as risk sentiment in Japan and South Korea deteriorated. Into the morning, the JPY scaled back that strength to trade modestly lower vs the USD, ahead of a meeting between BoJ Governor Ueda and Japanese Finance Minister Katayama. To put this meeting in some context, Japan’s bond yields hit multiyear highs overnight on fears a roughly JPY 17tln stimulus package under PM Takaichi will strain already weak public finances. She provided some post-meeting remarks, where she highlighted that the meeting focused on maintaining a close BoJ-Government coordination, with the largest bout of pressure for the JPY seen following remarks that there was “no specific discussion on FX”. This broke the Yen out of its overnight range to make a fresh session high above the 156.00 mark - a changing target right now, but high for today 156.29 at time of writing.
• GBP is lower today, in the aftermath of the region’s UK inflation report. Delving into the data, headline CPI Y/Y and M/M printed in-line with expectations, and cooled a touch from the prior whilst Services was cooler-than-expected. Governor Bailey, who cast the tie-breaking vote last time around, made clear in the statement & press conference that, in terms of the next cut, the BoE generally but Bailey in particular, is highly inflation contingent. As such, the as-expected moderation will push Bailey towards a December cut; however, it is too soon to say for sure, given the uptick in food inflation and the stickiness of various components. Additionally, we await next week's budget and then the November inflation print just before the December announcement for further insight.
• Antipodeans trade lower overnight, amidst the subdued risk tone – price action which has continued to play out into the European session. The Kiwi sits at the foot of the G10 pile, closely joined by the Aussie; NZD/USD is currently at the bottom end of a 0.5622 to 0.5661 range.

Fixed Income

• Gilts opened firmer by a handful of ticks before lifting to a 92.46 peak with gains of 13 at most. Upside spurred given the modest bullish bias in peers early doors and, more pertinently, after the morning's CPI release confirmed that UK inflation peaked across the late Summer. A release that factors in favour of the dovish contingent of the BoE.
• However, the stickiness of several components and uncertainty into the Budget and November inflation report mean that a definitive call for a December cut cannot be made just yet. Explaining the minimal magnitude of the Gilt move, its subsequent paring and why market pricing didn't deviate significantly/lastingly from a c. 80% chance of a cut. Downside was exacerbated after supply, where another sub-3x b/c spurred modest pressure to losses of c. 15 ticks, before slipping further to within reach of 50 of downside ticks at most. Supply aside, no clear fresh driver behind the move, aside from the uptick in the general risk tone (European equities moving a little higher).
• Bunds began on the front foot, and got to gains of eight ticks at most at a 128.79 peak. Thereafter, the complex saw a modest pullback and fell into the red with downside of just over five ticks at most. Specifics for the space light thus far and the docket ahead is devoid of Tier 1 events. As such, we look to US drivers for direction.
• USTs were contained ahead of several key US events, but slipped to troughs alongside a pickup in sentiment and underperformance in Gilts; supply, minutes, speakers and potentially most pertinently NVIDIA earnings all due. For the minutes, we look for insight into how the FOMC aligns itself to the hawkish tone taken by Powell in the press conference; ahead of that, markets ascribe a c. 40% chance of a December cut. Into this, USTs hover around the unchanged mark in a narrow 112-23 to 112-27+ band.
• UK sells GBP 4.5bln 4.75% 2035 Gilt: b/c 2.84x (prev. 2.78x), average yield 4.608% (prev. 4.769%), tail 0.6bps (prev. 0.6bps).
• Bond dealers have pushed back against Fed officials urging them to use the Standing Repo Facility, Bloomberg reports citing sources; citing stigma over borrowing from the Fed directly, operational and balance sheet concerns as factors.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks have begun to pull back slightly and retrace the gains made in Tuesday’s session after consolidating in a tight band throughout the APAC session. WTI and Brent oscillated in narrow USD 60.32-60.70/bbl and USD 64.51-64.78/bbl ranges during APAC trade before falling to a trough of USD 60.00/bbl and USD 64.19/bbl as the European session got underway. Thus far, benchmarks have bounced off session lows as risk tone begins to pick up across global markets. In geopols, Axios reported that the Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine. More recently, Brent Jan'26 took a leg lower to fresh troughs on Politico reports that US officials are reportedly nearing a deal to unveiling a major new peace agreement; last at USD 64.15/bbl.
• Spot XAU has seen modest gains to start the European session as markets await for FOMC minutes and NVIDIA earnings after the closing bell. XAU dipped to a low of USD 4056/oz in the early hours of the APAC session before reversing higher and peaking at USD 4099/oz. The yellow metal pulled back slightly to a low of USD 4078/oz before extending above USD 4100/oz. Currently, XAU is trading at session highs at USD 4113/oz.
• Base metals have traded subdued at the start of the European session amid a lack of catalysts. 3M LME Copper oscillated in a tight USD 10.7k-10.77k/t band before extending to a peak of USD 10.78k/t in line with the global risk tone. Broadly speaking the complex, as is the case for markets elsewhere, are waiting for AI behemoth NVIDIA to report Q3 earnings after the closing bell (see board for primer).
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +4.4mln (exp. -0.6mln), Distillate +0.6mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline +1.5mln (exp. -0.2mln), Cushing -0.8mln
• EU plans to create a central body to co-ordinate the purchasing and stockpiling of critical minerals, according to the FT.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said Saudi Arabia wants to be part of the Abraham Accords while ensuring a path to a two-state solution, and added that the kingdom will raise its investment in the US to USD 1tln, according to Reuters.
• US President Trump reiterated that Iran would like to make a deal with the US.
• US President Trump said Saudi Arabia has been designated as a major non-NATO ally to the US, according to Reuters.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski says they will respond to the railway sabotage, not just diplomatically.
• The Trump administration has been secretly working in consultation with Russia to draft a new plan to end the war in Ukraine, according to Axios sources. The plan’s 28 points fall into four general categories: peace in Ukraine, security guarantees, security in Europe, and future US relations with Russia and Ukraine. The basic idea was to take the principles that Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to in Alaska in August and produce a proposal to address the Ukraine conflict, restore US-Russia ties, and address Russia’s security concerns, according to Axios.
• US officials are reportedly near to unveiling a major new peace agreement with Russia to end the Ukraine conflict, via Politico; expected to be agreed by all parties by end-November, possibly as soon as this week.
• US President Trump dispatched a high-level Pentagon delegation to Kyiv for talks on Wednesday, in the administration’s latest attempt to revive negotiations on halting Ukraine’s war with Russia, according to WSJ.
• Russia's Defence Ministry said Ukraine attempted to strike targets deep inside Russian territory with ATACMS missiles (long-range, guided missiles) on Tuesday, with Voronezh as the target; Russian media reported that all of the ATACMS were shot down.
• Russia and the US have reportedly discussed the possibility of conducting another prisoner exchange, via Axios’ Ravid citing comments from a Russian special envoy.
• Poland scrambled aircraft to secure its airspace following Russian strikes on Ukraine, according to the Polish armed forces.
• Explosions reported in Lviv in Western Ukraine, following Ukrainian military warning of high threat of Russian missile and drone attacks. Note, Lviv is approximately 70km (43 miles) from the Polish border.

Geopolitics: Asia

• The Chinese government issued a renewed ban on Japanese seafood imports, according to Kyodo.
• China told Japan that the suspended seafood imports are amid monitoring of treated water release from the Fukushima nuclear plant, according to Kyodo.
• China's Foreign Ministry says Japan's PM Takaichi's "erroneous remarks" about Taiwan has fundamentally damaged the political foundation of Sino-Japanese relations. Suspending talks on resuming imports of Japanese beef.

US event Calendar

• 7:00 am: Nov 14 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 0.6%
• 8:30 am: Aug Trade Balance, est. -60.4b, prior -78.31b
• 2:00 pm: Oct 29 FOMC Meeting Minutes

Central Bank Speakers

• 10:00 am: Fed’s Miran Speaks on Bank Regulation
• 12:45 pm: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on the Economic Outlook
• 2:00 pm: FOMC Meeting Minutes
• 2:00 pm: Fed’s Williams Delivers Welcome Remarks

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The selloff has showed no sign of letting up in the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-0.83%) posting a 4th consecutive decline for the first time since August, whilst futures are down another -0.21% this morning. Several factors are driving the losses, but the biggest have been concerns about AI valuations, with the Magnificent 7 (-1.75%) edging closer to technical correction territory, having now shed -7.59% since its October peak. Moreover, sentiment took another hit from weak data releases and earnings reports, which further dampened investors’ optimism. Indeed, there were mounting signs of financial stress across the board, with the VIX index of volatility closing at 24.69 (+2.31pts), whilst US IG spreads (+1bp) reached their widest level since June.

Those AI concerns were front and centre, which comes at a pivotal moment given Nvidia (-2.81%) are reporting their own earnings results after the US close tonight. For context, Nvidia’s shares are now down -12.4% from their peak on October 29, albeit still at a level that was seen as recently as October 16. So that’s the biggest fall in its share price since the Liberation Day turmoil earlier this year. Interestingly, it was announced yesterday that Nvidia would invest up to $10bn in Anthropic, with Microsoft investing up to $5bn, in a deal that will see Anthropic purchase $30bn of Azure compute capacity. But unlike several recent AI deals which led to an immediate rally, there wasn’t a reaction in the share price of either following the news, with Microsoft (-2.70%) also underperforming on the day. So it goes to show how sentiment has turned more negative in the last few weeks, with the circular AI deals being treated with increasing caution as the conversation around a potential bubble has gathered pace.

In the meantime, that negative mood was exacerbated by several other catalysts. First, the crypto losses didn’t help, and yesterday saw Bitcoin briefly move below $90,000 on an intraday basis for the first time since April. Admittedly, it managed to recover by the close +0.68% higher on the day, but Bitcoin is still down -26% since its October peak, and the fear is that if retail investors are suffering crypto losses, then that could force them to sell other assets (like equities) to meet margin calls, thus exacerbating the broader selling pressure.

Alongside that, weak data and earnings continued to hit risk appetite. For instance, the ADP’s latest weekly employment estimate showed private payrolls were down -2.5k per week over the four weeks ending November 1. So that cemented fears that the labour market was struggling to hold up, although we should get a better picture tomorrow from the September jobs report. Otherwise, we also heard from Home Depot (-6.02%), whose shares fell back after they cut their outlook for the full-year, which in turn added to broader fears about the consumer outlook. So collectively, the drip-feed of more negative headlines helped to push risk assets down throughout the day.

Against that backdrop, the selloff continued across several asset classes. So the S&P 500 (-0.83%) posted a 4th consecutive decline, meaning it closed -3.97% beneath its recent peak. In fact, that marks the biggest peak-to-trough decline for the index since May, back when it was still recovering from the Liberation Day turmoil. Meanwhile in Europe, there were also heavy losses, with the STOXX 600 (-1.72%) posting its biggest daily decline since August, alongside losses for the DAX (-1.74%), the CAC 40 (-1.86%) and the FTSE MIB (-2.12%). That said, given how much the Magnificent 7 (-1.75%) were responsible for the US equity declines, it’s worth noting that small-caps had a relatively good day, with the Russell 2000 actually up by +0.31%. Likewise, the S&P 500 itself also saw a divergent performance, with almost half of its constituents rising despite the overall losses, leaving the equal-weighted S&P 500 down just -0.02%.

Given the growing magnitude of the selloff, investors moved to price in a stronger chance of Fed rate cuts again. For instance, the likelihood of a December rate cut moved back up to 45%, having been at 41% the day before. And in turn, that meant front-end Treasury yields rallied, with the 2yr yield (-3.7bps) falling to 3.57%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.6bps) also saw a decent decline to 4.11%. Interestingly, President Trump said on the next Fed Chair that “I think I already know my choice”, although we’re uncertain as to who that is. According to Polymarket, Kevin Hassett is considered the favourite with a 46% chance, and he’s currently the Director of the National Economic Council. He’s followed by Fed Governor Chris Waller, who’s given a 19% chance.

Meanwhile in Europe, attention will be back on the UK this morning, as the CPI release for October is out shortly after we go to press. There’s also just a week left until the government’s Budget announcement, and our UK economist published a preview yesterday looking at what to expect (link here). He thinks that this will be a second historic tax-raising budget, with Chancellor Reeves delivering nearly £35bn in fiscal consolidation. There’s also a Budget survey aimed at market participants asking what you’re expecting, which you can fill in here. Ahead of that, gilt yields mostly moved higher yesterday, with the 10yr yield up +1.8bps to 4.55%. But they underperformed their European counterparts, with 10yr bund yields (-0.6bps) coming down slightly.

Overnight in Asia, the equity declines have mostly continued, with losses for the Nikkei (-0.16%), the Hang Seng (-0.69%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.16%) and the KOSPI (-0.96%). Meanwhile in Japan, there’ve been fresh losses for JGBs, with long-end yields up to multi-year highs this morning. For instance, the 10yr JGB yield (+1.8bps) has rise to 1.75%, which is its highest level since 2008, and the 30yr yield (+2.9bps) is up to 3.32%, its highest since that maturity was first issued. The moves come as investors anticipate further issuance as new PM Sanae Takaichi is expected to unveil a stimulus plan. And looking forward, US and European equity futures are pointing towards further declines, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.21%) and the DAX (-0.17%) both lower this morning.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Nvidia’s earnings after the US close. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the FOMC’s October meeting, and hear from the Fed’s Miran, Barkin and Williams. Data releases will include the UK CPI report for October.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 08:43