Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
The Autoimmune Protocol (AIP) diet is a structured elimination diet designed to reduce inflammation and manage autoimmune symptoms. It focuses on removing harmful foods and incorporating nutrient-dense options to promote healing. A free printable PDF guide is available to help individuals navigate the diet effectively.
1.1 What is the AIP Diet?The Autoimmune Protocol (AIP) diet is a comprehensive elimination diet tailored for individuals with autoimmune diseases. It focuses on removing inflammatory foods and reintroducing nutrient-dense options to heal the gut and reduce symptoms. The diet eliminates grains, legumes, dairy, nightshades, and processed foods, which are believed to trigger inflammation. By focusing on whole, unprocessed foods like meats, vegetables, and fruits, the AIP diet aims to restore gut health and modulate the immune system. A free printable PDF guide is available to help individuals follow the diet effectively, ensuring they understand which foods to avoid and include during the elimination phase.
1.2 Benefits of the AIP Diet for Autoimmune Diseases
The AIP diet offers significant benefits for individuals with autoimmune diseases by reducing inflammation and alleviating symptoms. It helps heal the gut, a critical step in managing autoimmune conditions, as a leaky gut can trigger inflammation. By eliminating inflammatory foods, the diet reduces immune system overactivity, often leading to improved energy levels and reduced pain. Many people with conditions like rheumatoid arthritis, lupus, and Hashimoto’s report reduced flares and enhanced overall well-being. The diet also promotes nutrient absorption, supporting long-term health. A free printable PDF guide is available to help individuals understand and implement the AIP diet effectively, making it easier to adopt and sustain.
AIP Food List: What to Eat and AvoidThe AIP diet involves eliminating harmful foods like grains, dairy, and nightshades while focusing on nutrient-dense options such as vegetables, meats, and healthy fats. A free printable PDF guide helps outline these choices clearly.
2.1 Foods to Include in the AIP DietThe AIP diet emphasizes nutrient-dense foods to support healing. Focus on fresh vegetables like leafy greens, broccoli, and asparagus. Include grass-fed meats, wild-caught fish, and pastured poultry. Healthy fats such as avocado, olive oil, and coconut oil are essential. Bone broth, a rich source of collagen, is highly recommended. Fermented foods like sauerkraut and kombucha promote gut health. Fresh fruits like berries, citrus, and apples are allowed in moderation. Herbs and spices like garlic, ginger, and turmeric add flavor without triggering inflammation. A free printable PDF guide can help you organize these foods and plan meals effectively. Sticking to these options helps reduce inflammation and supports autoimmune recovery.
2.2 Foods to Eliminate During the AIP ProtocolThe AIP diet requires eliminating foods that trigger inflammation and worsen autoimmune symptoms. Remove all grains, including gluten-containing foods like wheat, barley, and rye, as well as gluten-free grains like rice and quinoa. Legumes, such as beans and lentils, should be avoided due to their lectin content. Dairy products, including milk, cheese, and yogurt, are also excluded. Nightshades like tomatoes, peppers, and eggplant are removed to reduce inflammation. Processed foods, refined sugars, and alcohol are strictly prohibited. Additionally, eliminate nuts, seeds, and seed-based spices, as they can irritate the gut. By removing these foods, the diet aims to heal the gut and reduce autoimmune flare-ups. A free printable PDF guide can help track these eliminations effectively.
Benefits of the AIP DietThe AIP diet reduces inflammation, manages autoimmune symptoms, and improves gut health. It enhances quality of life by eliminating harmful foods and promoting nutrient-dense eating. A free PDF guide helps track progress effectively.
3.1 Reducing Inflammation and Managing SymptomsThe AIP diet is highly effective in reducing inflammation, a key driver of autoimmune diseases. By eliminating inflammatory foods like grains, dairy, and nightshades, the diet helps calm the immune system. Many individuals report significant improvements in symptoms such as joint pain, fatigue, and skin issues. The diet’s focus on nutrient-dense foods like vegetables, meats, and bone broth supports the body’s natural healing processes. Over time, this can lead to better symptom management and a reduced need for medications. A free AIP diet plan PDF guide can provide structured support to help individuals implement these changes effectively and track their progress.
3.2 Improving Gut HealthThe AIP diet places a strong emphasis on improving gut health, a critical factor in managing autoimmune diseases. By eliminating harmful foods and incorporating nutrient-dense options, the diet helps heal the gut lining, reducing leaky gut syndrome. Foods like bone broth, fermented vegetables, and healthy fats promote the growth of beneficial gut bacteria. This balance supports immune function and reduces inflammation. A well-functioning gut is essential for proper nutrient absorption and overall well-being. A free AIP diet plan PDF guide can provide detailed strategies for optimizing gut health through dietary choices, making it easier to implement these changes effectively.
3.4 Enhancing Quality of Life for Autoimmune PatientsThe AIP diet significantly enhances the quality of life for autoimmune patients by reducing inflammation and alleviating symptoms. Many individuals report improved energy levels, better sleep, and reduced pain, allowing them to engage in daily activities with greater ease. The diet’s focus on nutrient-dense foods supports overall well-being, helping patients regain control over their health. By addressing the root causes of autoimmune symptoms, the AIP diet empowers individuals to live more fulfilling lives. A free AIP diet plan PDF guide can serve as a valuable resource, providing structured guidance to help patients implement the diet effectively and achieve long-term improvements in their quality of life.
AIP Meal Planning and RecipesThis section offers practical meal ideas, recipes, and resources to simplify the AIP diet. Discover delicious and easy-to-prepare meals, along with a free AIP diet plan PDF guide.
4.1 Simple AIP Meal Ideas for Breakfast, Lunch, and DinnerStart your day with a nutrient-dense breakfast like a vegetable hash or a smoothie made with AIP-friendly greens. For lunch, opt for a hearty salad topped with grilled chicken or fish. Dinner ideas include roasted meats paired with a variety of colorful vegetables. Incorporate AIP-approved herbs and spices to add flavor without irritation. Simple meal prep tips and a free AIP diet plan PDF can help streamline your cooking process, ensuring delicious and compliant meals every day.
4.2 AIP-Friendly Snacks and DessertsSnacking on the AIP diet can be both delicious and compliant. Fresh fruits like berries, citrus, and apples make great snacks, while veggie sticks with AIP-friendly dips are also ideal. For desserts, try creating treats with coconut milk, fresh fruit, or AIP-approved sweeteners like honey or maple syrup. Homemade fruit crisps or puddings are excellent options. Many AIP cookbooks offer creative recipes for snacks and desserts that align with the protocol. A free AIP diet plan PDF can provide even more ideas to satisfy your cravings while staying on track with your health goals.
4.3 Sample 7-Day AIP Meal PlanA sample 7-day AIP meal plan provides a structured approach to implementing the diet. Breakfast options might include zucchini boats with salmon and spinach or sweet potato pancakes. Lunch ideas could feature grilled chicken salads with avocado and arugula or roasted vegetable soups. Dinners might involve roasted meats like beef or pork paired with AIP-friendly sides like cauliflower rice or sautéed greens. Snacks could include fresh fruit, veggie sticks with compliant dips, or AIP-friendly energy balls. A free AIP diet plan PDF often includes detailed recipes and grocery lists to simplify meal prep. This plan ensures variety and nutrient-dense meals to support healing and satisfaction.
Implementing the AIP DietStarting the AIP diet requires a clear plan and commitment. Avoid common mistakes like rushing the process or neglecting to track progress. Use a printable AIP diet plan PDF for guidance and organization, ensuring a smooth transition to this healing protocol.
5.1 How to Start the AIP DietStarting the AIP diet begins with careful planning and preparation. Begin by understanding the food list and creating a grocery list of AIP-friendly items. Meal prepping is essential to ensure compliance and reduce stress. Download a free AIP diet plan PDF for guidance, including recipes and meal ideas. Track your progress and symptoms to identify improvements. Avoid common mistakes like rushing the elimination phase or neglecting to reintroduce foods properly. Stay committed to the protocol, as healing takes time. Utilize online resources and support communities for motivation and tips. With dedication, the AIP diet can become a sustainable lifestyle, helping you manage autoimmune symptoms effectively.
5.2 Common Mistakes to AvoidWhen starting the AIP diet, common mistakes include rushing the elimination phase or skipping it entirely. Many individuals overlook the importance of tracking symptoms and progress, which is crucial for identifying triggers. Another error is not properly reintroducing foods, leading to potential setbacks. Some people also neglect to meal prep, making it difficult to stay compliant. Additionally, relying solely on willpower without a structured plan can lead to frustration. Avoiding these mistakes requires discipline and patience. Using a free AIP diet plan PDF can provide guidance and help prevent errors. By staying informed and mindful, you can avoid pitfalls and achieve better outcomes on your AIP journey.
5.3 Tips for Sticking to the AIP Diet Long-TermSticking to the AIP diet long-term requires careful planning and mindset shifts. Start by creating a structured meal plan using a free AIP diet plan PDF, which outlines compliant foods and recipes. Meal prepping is essential to avoid last-minute decisions that could derail progress. Joining AIP support communities can provide motivation and accountability. Additionally, focus on celebrating small victories rather than feeling restricted. Stay informed about AIP-friendly snacks and desserts to satisfy cravings without compromising the diet. Lastly, remind yourself of the benefits, such as reduced inflammation and improved symptoms, to stay committed. Over time, these habits will become second nature, making long-term adherence achievable and sustainable.
AIP Diet ResourcesThe AIP diet offers various resources, including free PDF guides, cookbooks, and online communities, to help individuals understand and adhere to the protocol effectively.
6.1 Free AIP Diet Plan PDF GuidesFree AIP diet plan PDF guides are invaluable resources for individuals starting the Autoimmune Protocol. These comprehensive guides provide detailed food lists, meal plans, and shopping tips to simplify the transition. Many PDFs include sample recipes, snack ideas, and strategies for maintaining the diet long-term. They often cover topics like pantry staples, elimination phase tips, and reintroduction processes. Printable versions allow users to easily reference the information while cooking or grocery shopping. These guides are especially helpful for visual learners, offering a clear roadmap to success. By downloading a free AIP diet plan PDF, individuals can gain clarity and confidence in implementing the protocol effectively.
6.2 Recommended AIP Cookbooks and WebsitesSeveral excellent AIP cookbooks and websites are available to support your journey. Popular cookbooks like The Autoimmune Protocol Cookbook by Sarah Ballantyne and The Paleo Approach Cookbook offer delicious, compliant recipes. Websites such as Yummy Inspirations and Shannanemrow.com provide meal ideas, grocery lists, and tips for simplifying the AIP diet. These resources are designed to make the protocol accessible and sustainable. They often include step-by-step guides, video tutorials, and community support. By leveraging these tools, you can explore a variety of flavors and stay motivated. Whether you’re a beginner or looking to diversify your meals, these cookbooks and websites are essential for a successful AIP experience.
6.3 AIP Support Communities and ForumsJoining AIP support communities and forums can provide invaluable guidance and motivation. Platforms like Facebook groups, Reddit forums, and specialized AIP websites offer spaces to connect with others on the same journey. These communities share recipes, tips, and personal experiences, helping you stay committed to the diet. Many groups are moderated by experienced AIP practitioners who offer advice and address common challenges. Additionally, websites like Yummy Inspirations and Shannanemrow.com host forums and resources to help you navigate the protocol. Engaging with these communities can foster accountability and provide emotional support, making the AIP diet more manageable and sustainable. They also often share free PDF guides and meal plans to help you succeed.
The AIP diet is a powerful approach to managing autoimmune diseases, offering structured guidance, free PDF resources, and supportive communities to aid your committed healing journey.
7.1 Final Thoughts on the AIP Diet PlanThe AIP diet plan is a transformative approach for managing autoimmune diseases, focusing on eliminating harmful foods and incorporating nutrient-dense options to reduce inflammation and improve symptoms. By following a structured elimination diet, individuals can identify triggers and promote healing. The availability of free printable PDF guides and supportive communities makes the journey more accessible and sustainable. Commitment to the protocol is key, as it requires patience and dedication. Over time, many experience significant improvements in their quality of life, making the AIP diet a valuable tool for those seeking to reclaim their health and well-being.
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Susanna Rust of IPE reports pension fund execs tackle ‘disconnect’ as governments target institutional capital:A group of senior-level executives from major pension funds across the world have developed a guide to help governments understand how they can successfully attract domestic institutional capital to help achieve their policy goals.
The guide is the output of a working group of the International Centre for Pension Management (ICPM), a global network of more than 50 pension funds and related organisations that together manage more than $8trn (€6.9trn) of assets.
Sebastien Betermier (featured above), ICPM executive director and a lead author of the new paper alongside Onno Steenbeek, from APG Asset Management, told IPE: “We launched this working group because there is a real disconnect between what governments expect from private capital and what institutional investors expect from their investments.
“This report develops a comprehensive and practical framework – the ‘investible window’ – that is extremely useful for understanding how domestic institutional capital can align to public goals and priorities.
“Our hope is that this paper will provide clarity and facilitate constructive discussions on what institutional investors consider attractive and credible investment structures.”
Other pension fund executives on the working group, in addition to Betermier and Steenbeek, include Mark Lyon, deputy chief investment officer at Border to Coast Pensions Partnership; Chris Rule and Richard Tomlinson, CEO and CIO of Local Pensions Partnership Investments (LPPI), respectively; Jeffrey Hodgson, managing director, global stakeholder affairs, and Derek Walker, head of portfolio design and construction, at CPP Investments, and Ali Parker, head of investment research and strategy at TCorp in Australia.
‘Structures that money can trust’The report – Unlocking domestic investment opportunities: Aligning public goals with pension fund realities – describes how governments will not mobilise domestic institutional capital via “patriotic appeals and mandates” but by “creating structures that money can trust”. It defines the ‘investible window’ as “the specific set of legal, financial and governance conditions that must simultaneously exist for institutional capital to flow into domestic projects while meeting fiduciary duty”.
“While the exact contours of the investible window may vary across institutions […], there is broad consistency in how institutional investors assess investment readiness,” the paper continued.
“Understanding and designing around this investible window is essential for governments and development partners seeking to attract private capital to domestic priorities.”
Last week, the Mercer CFA Institute Global Pension Index report highlighted how calls for pension funds to channel capital into national priorities have intensified, with the issue particularly central in the UK, where debates on investment mandates and economic growth are reshaping pension policy.
This morning, the UK government unveiled ‘Sterling 20’, a new partnership between 20 of the UK’s largest pension funds and insurers that will work with the government and City of London Corporation “to channel the nation’s savings into key infrastructure and fast-growing businesses in key modern industrial strategy sectors like AI and fintech”.
In a recent opinion piece for IPE Magnus Billing, the former CEO of Swedish pension fund Alecta, said policymakers’ productive finance push made sense, but that “[w]hen policymakers push pension funds towards higher-cost alternatives, they’re asking retirees to gamble their financial security on uncertain outcomes”.
Founded in 2004 by Keith Ambachtsheer at the Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto, ICPM is now a network of 54 pension funds, having last week welcomed GIC, Singapore’s sovereign wealth fund, as a new member.
You can download ICPM's report, Unlocking Domestic Investment Opportunities here.
Below, the executive summary and the working group:
Among Canadians in the working group you have Eric de Roos of OTPP, Alison Loat of OPTrust, James Kwon of UPP, Bernard Morency who was formerly at La Caisse, Denes Nemeth of AIMCo, Harpinder Sandhu of BC Municipal Pension Board of Trustees and Derek Walker of CPP Investments
Canadian representation is strong and for good reason. Prime Minister Mark Carney and his government are working on getting major projects off the ground and they want Canada's large pension funds to invest in these projects.
At the heart of this report lies "The Investible Window" which provides the winning conditions for pension funds to invest more domestically:
The report also explicitly states: "Benchmarking against global peers is the norm. The fact that a project is domestic is not sufficient justification for sub-commercial returns."
What does this mean in practice? It means Canada's large pension funds aren't averse to investing in large domestic projects where they have no currency risk as long as these projects are scalable and offer competitive returns relative to what they can get elsewhere.
The report offers a lot more details and provides more context but I'm boiling it down to what is critically important.
Anyway, take the time to read the entire report here, well worth it and I certainly hope it helps bridging the disconnect between policy and practical pension investments.
If it were up to me, I'd be a bulldozer privatizing every major infrastructure asset the federal government owns and building pipelines east to west and west to east and taking anyone who opposes me to court.
Privatize airports, ports, toll roads, and a lot more and create major energy projects and invite domestic and foreign pools of capital to invest in these projects.
But first get the winning conditions right or else forget it, you're never going to go anywhere and it will be another wasted opportunity.
If I sound old and cynical, good, that's what I'm aiming for, tired of slogans and patriotic puff, actions mean a lot more than words to me.
Below, Prime Minister Carney holds a media availability during his recent visit to the United Kingdom where he met with several heads of government and business leaders and attended the Global Progress Action Summit.
Also, speaking with reporters from Canada House in London, Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson recaps his three-day trip to the United Kingdom. He faces questions about the Trump administration’s recent investments in two Canadian mining companies, Chinese demand for Canadian oil, and Alberta’s push for a pipeline to British Columbia’s north coast.
From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Another Boring Day With Mortgage Rates Near 3-Year Lows[W]e're hanging out near 3 year lows with minimal volatility. In order to see sharper, more sustained momentum, we'd likely need the government shutdown to end. That would allow the most consequential economic reports (like the jobs report) to be released. It would also allow data collection to resume for future jobs reports.Tuesday:
Between now and then, there is other data to guide the rate market, but it's just not as heavy hitting. This week is particularly light in that regard, but there's one exception. The BLS received an exception to compile September's CPI inflation data, to be released this Friday. It's not quite on par with the jobs report, but it can certainly get rates moving (for better or worse, depending on the details). [30 year fixed 6.22%]
emphasis added
Authored by James Howard Kunstler,
“Zelensky has been given a Russian ultimatum via Trump. Accept Russia terms or face total destruction.”
- SiriusReport on “X”
Well, “No Kings” came and went. Inflatable animal costumes did a brisk business for one week. The old Boomers got a social space to act out their nostalgic re-visit to the Age of Aquarius. They resisted. . . something. (Mainly authority of any kind, a retarded adolescent fantasy.) And now it’s back to Rachel Maddow for further instructions. The Republic slogs on, albeit with a shut-down government.
Did you forget about Ukraine? Yes, a war is still going on there and it’s a weeping lesion on Western Civ, possibly leading to fatal sepsis. US neocons set the stage in 2014 with the Maidan color revolution as a wedge to wreck and then loot Russia. Then, for eight years, Ukraine harassed the Donbas with US-supplied missiles and artillery. Russia had enough of that in 2022 and ventured in to stop it. For “Joe Biden,” the war was a nice smokescreen to cover his long-running grift operations in Ukraine.
The Euro club stupidly came along for the ride.
It was all a tragic and feckless waste.
Mr. Trump wants to stop it, but Western Civ as a whole is in such a state of florid strategic disorder that he’s had to pretend the US supports Ukraine. Mr. Zelensky could not possibly carry on this mischief without US weapons and loads of US taxpayer cash. Still, the Russians advance implacably on-the-ground. They are going to “win” this war eventually — meaning, the US and Europe will lose — and everybody knows it.
It would be nice if France, Germany, and the UK were still stable, thriving, rational nations, but they are not. They have entered an arc of collapse, largely due to their own stupendously bad choices, and their leadership is insane. Macron, Merz, Starmer. . . these are the Three Stooges of our time, and Europe’s collapse has degenerated to morbid, masochistic slapstick as their factories shutter and the Jihadis go about raping their wives and daughters. Do you think that’s not happening?
Mr. Trump surely realizes he has to cut the US loose from this evil clown-show. That they are our NATO allies complicates things, yet, really, the Euro gang is impotent and NATO has become an irrelevant anachronism. They have no effective military mojo. Their economies are imploding. They have surrendered their culture to a savage cult. Their populations are demoralized, emasculated, in thrall to the menopausal viragos in their councils and ministries. They know full-well that Ukraine lies in Russia’s sphere-of-influence — a centuries-long reality — and that it is none of their business. Yet, Macron, Merz, and Starmer keep pushing the fantasy that Russia seeks to invade them, and so they must strike at Russia before that happens . . . all pure delusion.
You can suppose that Mr. Putin wants a negotiated peace rather than continuing the long grind on-the-ground, with all its casualties and expenditures. Such a negotiated peace really amounts to the US ceasing to support Zelensky’s war effort. Of course, such is the insanity of US political life, that many in our government pretend that we have a stake in Ukraine, and must retain some control of it.
Mr. Trump must know this is insane and is against the interests of the USA. He knows that Ukraine is historically in Russia’s sphere of influence — as Venezuela is in ours — and that the best outcome of this mess would be for Ukraine to return to its prior status as a harmless frontier between Russia and western Europe — as it had been since 1945 — looking to its humble business of growing wheat for export.
We do not need Ukraine to be anybody’s problem, despite the insane yearnings of the neocons, the weapons manufacturers, and the reckless globalists of the EU, to make it everyone’s problem.
Hence, Mr. Trump’s dilemma: how to dissociate from this losing proposition and come out looking like a winner, saving Europe from becoming a smoldering ashtray, stanching the flow of US taxpayers’ money and US-made weapons into this black hole, and forging friendly relations with a Russia that is decades beyond being our ideological enemy? America and Russia’s interests are geopolitically aligned, though no one in the arena is willing to admit it. Russia has much more to worry about with China right at Siberia’s doorstep than with the USA, just as the USA has much more to worry about with China as it weaponizes A-I, moves into outer space, and casts a covetous eye on the resources of the USA, Australia, Africa, and its next-door-neighbor, Russia.
These are the matters that Presidents Trump and Putin must be touching on in those long, two-and-a-half-hour phone confabs they hold. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump must put on a vaudeville show for his US adversaries about maybe giving tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. . . no, maybe not doing that. . . and the rest of the song and dance to make it appear that we are kinda-sorta still on Ukraine’s side when the truth is we are not so much at all.
And so, the two presidents head for Budapest where — if the intel spooks of Euroland don’t try to bump them off there — they might come to the necessary agreement that the war will end because the US no longer supports it, not even the pretense of supporting it. President Viktor Orban of Hungary, who Mr. Trump respects, will be on hand for moral support. Expect some tough-talking mummery from DJT, just to throw the MSNBC lunatics off-balance. Rogue idiots such as Senators Blumenthal and Schiff will fume that “Trump lost Ukraine,” but the 50-plus percent of Americans who are not-insane will understand what actually happened.
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 16:20Authored by James Howard Kunstler,
“Zelensky has been given a Russian ultimatum via Trump. Accept Russia terms or face total destruction.”
- SiriusReport on “X”
Well, “No Kings” came and went. Inflatable animal costumes did a brisk business for one week. The old Boomers got a social space to act out their nostalgic re-visit to the Age of Aquarius. They resisted. . . something. (Mainly authority of any kind, a retarded adolescent fantasy.) And now it’s back to Rachel Maddow for further instructions. The Republic slogs on, albeit with a shut-down government.
Did you forget about Ukraine? Yes, a war is still going on there and it’s a weeping lesion on Western Civ, possibly leading to fatal sepsis. US neocons set the stage in 2014 with the Maidan color revolution as a wedge to wreck and then loot Russia. Then, for eight years, Ukraine harassed the Donbas with US-supplied missiles and artillery. Russia had enough of that in 2022 and ventured in to stop it. For “Joe Biden,” the war was a nice smokescreen to cover his long-running grift operations in Ukraine.
The Euro club stupidly came along for the ride.
It was all a tragic and feckless waste.
Mr. Trump wants to stop it, but Western Civ as a whole is in such a state of florid strategic disorder that he’s had to pretend the US supports Ukraine. Mr. Zelensky could not possibly carry on this mischief without US weapons and loads of US taxpayer cash. Still, the Russians advance implacably on-the-ground. They are going to “win” this war eventually — meaning, the US and Europe will lose — and everybody knows it.
It would be nice if France, Germany, and the UK were still stable, thriving, rational nations, but they are not. They have entered an arc of collapse, largely due to their own stupendously bad choices, and their leadership is insane. Macron, Merz, Starmer. . . these are the Three Stooges of our time, and Europe’s collapse has degenerated to morbid, masochistic slapstick as their factories shutter and the Jihadis go about raping their wives and daughters. Do you think that’s not happening?
Mr. Trump surely realizes he has to cut the US loose from this evil clown-show. That they are our NATO allies complicates things, yet, really, the Euro gang is impotent and NATO has become an irrelevant anachronism. They have no effective military mojo. Their economies are imploding. They have surrendered their culture to a savage cult. Their populations are demoralized, emasculated, in thrall to the menopausal viragos in their councils and ministries. They know full-well that Ukraine lies in Russia’s sphere-of-influence — a centuries-long reality — and that it is none of their business. Yet, Macron, Merz, and Starmer keep pushing the fantasy that Russia seeks to invade them, and so they must strike at Russia before that happens . . . all pure delusion.
You can suppose that Mr. Putin wants a negotiated peace rather than continuing the long grind on-the-ground, with all its casualties and expenditures. Such a negotiated peace really amounts to the US ceasing to support Zelensky’s war effort. Of course, such is the insanity of US political life, that many in our government pretend that we have a stake in Ukraine, and must retain some control of it.
Mr. Trump must know this is insane and is against the interests of the USA. He knows that Ukraine is historically in Russia’s sphere of influence — as Venezuela is in ours — and that the best outcome of this mess would be for Ukraine to return to its prior status as a harmless frontier between Russia and western Europe — as it had been since 1945 — looking to its humble business of growing wheat for export.
We do not need Ukraine to be anybody’s problem, despite the insane yearnings of the neocons, the weapons manufacturers, and the reckless globalists of the EU, to make it everyone’s problem.
Hence, Mr. Trump’s dilemma: how to dissociate from this losing proposition and come out looking like a winner, saving Europe from becoming a smoldering ashtray, stanching the flow of US taxpayers’ money and US-made weapons into this black hole, and forging friendly relations with a Russia that is decades beyond being our ideological enemy? America and Russia’s interests are geopolitically aligned, though no one in the arena is willing to admit it. Russia has much more to worry about with China right at Siberia’s doorstep than with the USA, just as the USA has much more to worry about with China as it weaponizes A-I, moves into outer space, and casts a covetous eye on the resources of the USA, Australia, Africa, and its next-door-neighbor, Russia.
These are the matters that Presidents Trump and Putin must be touching on in those long, two-and-a-half-hour phone confabs they hold. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump must put on a vaudeville show for his US adversaries about maybe giving tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. . . no, maybe not doing that. . . and the rest of the song and dance to make it appear that we are kinda-sorta still on Ukraine’s side when the truth is we are not so much at all.
And so, the two presidents head for Budapest where — if the intel spooks of Euroland don’t try to bump them off there — they might come to the necessary agreement that the war will end because the US no longer supports it, not even the pretense of supporting it. President Viktor Orban of Hungary, who Mr. Trump respects, will be on hand for moral support. Expect some tough-talking mummery from DJT, just to throw the MSNBC lunatics off-balance. Rogue idiots such as Senators Blumenthal and Schiff will fume that “Trump lost Ukraine,” but the 50-plus percent of Americans who are not-insane will understand what actually happened.
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 16:20President Trump has put Colombia on notice, and will hit the South American nation with new tariffs. He has further charged President Gustavo Petro with being an "illegal drug leader," saying the US will also halt all aid to the country.
Trump asserted Sunday on social media that drug trafficking "has become the biggest business in Colombia" and said Petro "does nothing to stop it" despite years of US funding. "AS OF TODAY, THESE PAYMENTS... WILL NO LONGER BE MADE," the US president wrote.
All of this came after earlier on Sunday President Trump confirmed that US forces previously "destroyed a very large drug-carrying submarine" off the coast of Venezuela - the sixth such strike on alleged narco-vessels in recent weeks.
In follow-up while speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump officially confirmed what Senator Lindsey Graham had hinted at earlier, saying further details about the tariffs would be released Monday.
Senator Graham said on X that he'd a "very good conversation" with Trump, during which the president vowed to "hit Colombia not only by going after its drug traffickers but also where it hurts most - in its economy."
Soon after Trump while speaking to reporters decried Colombia as being "out of control" and that "they have the worst president they’ve ever had - a lunatic with serious mental problems."
Colombia has alleged that among the latest strikes in the south Caribbean was a fishing vessel carrying a Colombian national who was severely injured. But there's been some confusion over precisely which strike it was.
But speaking to reporters, Trump said "This submarine had one purpose - to transport massive quantities of drugs." But it appears Colombia is making the allegation about a prior attack, and not the submarine incident.
He added: "They’re producing enormous amounts of cocaine, shipping it worldwide, and destroying countless families."
Q: The Columbian president says that the US killed an innocent Columbia fisherman
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 20, 2025
TRUMP: He said that when we shot down a submarine that they were just fishing. This was a submarine that was meant for one reason -- to carry massive amounts of drugs
Q: He's talking about a… pic.twitter.com/FW4O92le14
And yet...
The two survivors of an American military strike on a suspected drug-carrying vessel in the Caribbean will be sent to Ecuador and Colombia, their home countries, U.S. President Donald Trump said Saturday.
The military rescued the pair after striking a submersible vessel Thursday, in what was at least the sixth such attack since early September.
Seeking to prove the US narrative of things, Trump and the Pentagon's public affairs team both shared a video showing US air assets destroying the "drug-carrying submarine." However, no details were provided regarding the type of aircraft or weapons used in the strike. Some analysts have questioned the legality of such 'executions' on the high seas, without warning or attempt to intercept.
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 15:45President Trump has put Colombia on notice, and will hit the South American nation with new tariffs. He has further charged President Gustavo Petro with being an "illegal drug leader," saying the US will also halt all aid to the country.
Trump asserted Sunday on social media that drug trafficking "has become the biggest business in Colombia" and said Petro "does nothing to stop it" despite years of US funding. "AS OF TODAY, THESE PAYMENTS... WILL NO LONGER BE MADE," the US president wrote.
All of this came after earlier on Sunday President Trump confirmed that US forces previously "destroyed a very large drug-carrying submarine" off the coast of Venezuela - the sixth such strike on alleged narco-vessels in recent weeks.
In follow-up while speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump officially confirmed what Senator Lindsey Graham had hinted at earlier, saying further details about the tariffs would be released Monday.
Senator Graham said on X that he'd a "very good conversation" with Trump, during which the president vowed to "hit Colombia not only by going after its drug traffickers but also where it hurts most - in its economy."
Soon after Trump while speaking to reporters decried Colombia as being "out of control" and that "they have the worst president they’ve ever had - a lunatic with serious mental problems."
Colombia has alleged that among the latest strikes in the south Caribbean was a fishing vessel carrying a Colombian national who was severely injured. But there's been some confusion over precisely which strike it was.
But speaking to reporters, Trump said "This submarine had one purpose - to transport massive quantities of drugs." But it appears Colombia is making the allegation about a prior attack, and not the submarine incident.
He added: "They’re producing enormous amounts of cocaine, shipping it worldwide, and destroying countless families."
Q: The Columbian president says that the US killed an innocent Columbia fisherman
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 20, 2025
TRUMP: He said that when we shot down a submarine that they were just fishing. This was a submarine that was meant for one reason -- to carry massive amounts of drugs
Q: He's talking about a… pic.twitter.com/FW4O92le14
And yet...
The two survivors of an American military strike on a suspected drug-carrying vessel in the Caribbean will be sent to Ecuador and Colombia, their home countries, U.S. President Donald Trump said Saturday.
The military rescued the pair after striking a submersible vessel Thursday, in what was at least the sixth such attack since early September.
Seeking to prove the US narrative of things, Trump and the Pentagon's public affairs team both shared a video showing US air assets destroying the "drug-carrying submarine." However, no details were provided regarding the type of aircraft or weapons used in the strike. Some analysts have questioned the legality of such 'executions' on the high seas, without warning or attempt to intercept.
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 15:45Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the United States has entered a new “industrial revolution” powered by artificial intelligence, crediting President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and manufacturing agenda for enabling the first-ever production of the company’s most advanced Blackwell AI chips on American soil.
While speaking from a semiconductor fabrication plant in Phoenix, Arizona, on Oct. 17, and later during an interview with Fox News, Huang said that Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) have jointly reached volume production of U.S.-made Blackwell wafers—an achievement he called “a historic moment” in both technology and industrial policy.
“It’s the very first time in recent American history that the single most important chip is being manufactured here in the United States by the most advanced fab, by TSMC, here in the United States,” Huang said at the event.
“This is the vision of President Trump of reindustrialization—to bring back manufacturing to America, to create jobs, of course, but also, this is the single most vital manufacturing industry and the most important technology industry in the world.”
The milestone was marked in a ceremony at the Arizona fab, where Huang joined TSMC executives to sign the first U.S.-produced Blackwell wafer—a symbolic gesture meant to highlight the reemergence of cutting-edge semiconductor production in the United States.
In his Fox News interview, Huang credited Trump’s tariffs and energy policies with speeding up the decision to manufacture advanced chips in the United States rather than keeping production overseas.
“This last week was a historic week,” he said on “The Sunday Briefing.”
“We manufactured the most advanced AI chips in the world, in the most advanced fab in the world, here in America for the first time. All of this started with President Trump wanting to reindustrialize the United States. His tariffs were a pressing agent in making this possible at the speed that we’re doing, and now just shortly after less than a year, we’re now manufacturing the most advanced chips for AI here in the United States. This is just the beginning of it.”
Trump has made tariffs the centerpiece of a broader industrial strategy aimed at reshaping global supply chains and reducing reliance on foreign manufacturing. Since returning to the White House, he has imposed a range of duties on imports—from steel and aluminum to vehicles and electronics—while noting that companies can avoid tariffs entirely by building in the United States.
Trump administration officials have said the goal of the tariffs is not only to raise federal revenue but also to force corporate investment back onto U.S. soil—a stance that has drawn both manufacturing commitments and legal challenges.
Huang estimated that within several years, roughly $500 billion worth of AI supercomputing systems could be built and installed in the United States, including data centers, chip fabs, and advanced packaging plants. He said the scale of construction would also generate demand for skilled trades such as electricians, welders, and precision technicians.
With his remarks, Huang joins other business leaders who have recently endorsed Trump’s tariff approach as a catalyst for reshoring. Whirlpool CEO Marc Bitzer, for example, said recently that tariffs helped justify a $300 million expansion of its Ohio manufacturing plants, calling the policies essential to a “level playing field.”
“Any investment is a bet for the future,” Bitzer said. “Our bet is that these tariff policies stay.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s trade program faces a pivotal test at the U.S. Supreme Court, which is set to hear arguments next month on whether the administration exceeded its authority in imposing certain tariffs under emergency powers.
Trump has said that overturning the tariffs would jeopardize national security and undermine U.S. leverage abroad, saying during an Oct. 19 interview, “If they took away tariffs, then they’ve taken away our national security,” adding that an unfavorable ruling could mean the United States will struggle “for years.”
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 15:30Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the United States has entered a new “industrial revolution” powered by artificial intelligence, crediting President Donald Trump’s tariff policies and manufacturing agenda for enabling the first-ever production of the company’s most advanced Blackwell AI chips on American soil.
While speaking from a semiconductor fabrication plant in Phoenix, Arizona, on Oct. 17, and later during an interview with Fox News, Huang said that Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) have jointly reached volume production of U.S.-made Blackwell wafers—an achievement he called “a historic moment” in both technology and industrial policy.
“It’s the very first time in recent American history that the single most important chip is being manufactured here in the United States by the most advanced fab, by TSMC, here in the United States,” Huang said at the event.
“This is the vision of President Trump of reindustrialization—to bring back manufacturing to America, to create jobs, of course, but also, this is the single most vital manufacturing industry and the most important technology industry in the world.”
The milestone was marked in a ceremony at the Arizona fab, where Huang joined TSMC executives to sign the first U.S.-produced Blackwell wafer—a symbolic gesture meant to highlight the reemergence of cutting-edge semiconductor production in the United States.
In his Fox News interview, Huang credited Trump’s tariffs and energy policies with speeding up the decision to manufacture advanced chips in the United States rather than keeping production overseas.
“This last week was a historic week,” he said on “The Sunday Briefing.”
“We manufactured the most advanced AI chips in the world, in the most advanced fab in the world, here in America for the first time. All of this started with President Trump wanting to reindustrialize the United States. His tariffs were a pressing agent in making this possible at the speed that we’re doing, and now just shortly after less than a year, we’re now manufacturing the most advanced chips for AI here in the United States. This is just the beginning of it.”
Trump has made tariffs the centerpiece of a broader industrial strategy aimed at reshaping global supply chains and reducing reliance on foreign manufacturing. Since returning to the White House, he has imposed a range of duties on imports—from steel and aluminum to vehicles and electronics—while noting that companies can avoid tariffs entirely by building in the United States.
Trump administration officials have said the goal of the tariffs is not only to raise federal revenue but also to force corporate investment back onto U.S. soil—a stance that has drawn both manufacturing commitments and legal challenges.
Huang estimated that within several years, roughly $500 billion worth of AI supercomputing systems could be built and installed in the United States, including data centers, chip fabs, and advanced packaging plants. He said the scale of construction would also generate demand for skilled trades such as electricians, welders, and precision technicians.
With his remarks, Huang joins other business leaders who have recently endorsed Trump’s tariff approach as a catalyst for reshoring. Whirlpool CEO Marc Bitzer, for example, said recently that tariffs helped justify a $300 million expansion of its Ohio manufacturing plants, calling the policies essential to a “level playing field.”
“Any investment is a bet for the future,” Bitzer said. “Our bet is that these tariff policies stay.”
Meanwhile, Trump’s trade program faces a pivotal test at the U.S. Supreme Court, which is set to hear arguments next month on whether the administration exceeded its authority in imposing certain tariffs under emergency powers.
Trump has said that overturning the tariffs would jeopardize national security and undermine U.S. leverage abroad, saying during an Oct. 19 interview, “If they took away tariffs, then they’ve taken away our national security,” adding that an unfavorable ruling could mean the United States will struggle “for years.”
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 15:30Update (1507ET):
Fast forward to late in the U.S. cash session, and Amazon Web Services (AWS) is still experiencing "degraded" service in its US-East-1 (Northern Virginia) region, resulting in disruptions across a number of apps and websites today.
But forget the disruptions seen on Snapchat, Facebook, Fortnite, and many other websites today. We want to focus on the potential for delays in Amazon package deliveries.
For instance, several packages we ordered for the research desk early in the European session were just delayed, as we received this notification from Amazon via email:
"We're encountering a delay in delivering your order. We'll send a confirmation as soon as it ships and communicate the expected delivery date. We know this delivery is important, and we apologize for the inconvenience."
Next. We clicked on the "track package" button for each package, but a "Sorry, something went wrong on our end" page appeared.
Now packages? Are all those warehouse robots running on AWS fine?
* * *
Update (0615ET):
Amazon Web Services (AWS) has largely restored operations after a major disruption in its US-East-1 (Northern Virginia) region earlier this morning that affected numerous apps and websites relying on the service.
Root Cause Identified:
AWS engineers traced the issue to a DNS resolution problem affecting the DynamoDB API endpoint in the US-East-1 region. The failure also disrupted other AWS services and global features dependent on that region, including IAM updates and DynamoDB Global Tables.
Timeline of Recovery:
2:01 AM PDT: Engineers identified the DNS issue and began applying fixes.
2:22 AM PDT: Early signs of recovery appeared after initial mitigations, though many requests were still failing.
2:27 AM PDT: AWS reported significant progress, with most requests beginning to succeed.
3:03 AM PDT: AWS confirmed broad recovery across most affected services, including global systems relying on US-East-1, though teams continue working toward full resolution.
* * *
A massive internet outage is being reported at the start of the new workweek. The problem appears to be originating from Amazon Web Services (AWS), which provides infrastructure that powers much of the modern internet.
AWS' Service Health Dashboard shows "operational issues" in its US-East-1 region (Northern Virginia), one of its largest data centers.
What’s happening:
Several AWS services, including DynamoDB and others, are experiencing slow performance (high latency) or failures (high error rates).
Impact:
Apps and websites that rely on AWS may be loading slowly, timing out, or not working at all.
Users may be unable to create or update support cases through AWS' help system.
There's no official statement yet on what sparked the outage at AWS' Virginia data centers.
Developing.
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 15:07
Ladies and gentlemen, Ritholtz Wealth Management is coming to Washington, D.C., on November 17 & 18th.
If you’re interested in talking to me and our wealth management team about how we solve complicated wealth management and investing problems, now is your chance!
Whether it’s tax, estate planning, business succession, concentrated stock, multigenerational wealth, or general investment management and financial planning, we’re heading to DC to talk to you.
I’ll be traveling with my co-founder, Kris Venne, our 3 financial planners, and members of our family office and tax team.
Please email info@ritholtzwealth.com, add subject line “DC” to set up a time to talk to us about your situation.
Can’t wait to see you in Washington!
The post Ritholtz Wealth Management Coming to DC! Nov 17-18 appeared first on The Big Picture.
The NAR is scheduled to release September Existing Home sales on Thursday, October 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 4.06 million SAAR. Last year, the NAR reported sales in September 2024 at 3.90 million SAAR.There is much more in the article.
California reports Seasonally Adjusted (SA) sales and some measures of inventory whereas most of the local is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).
From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales rebound in September with modest monthly and annual gains, C.A.R. saysAfter five consecutive months of year-over-year declines, September home sales activity climbed 5 percent from the 264,240 homes sold in August and rose 6.6 percent from a year ago, when 260,340 homes were sold on an annualized basis. September marked the 36th straight month in which the seasonally adjusted sales rate remained below the 300,000 benchmark. ...This is in line with national sales being up year-over-year.
By Rabobank
The Dow Jones, NASDAQ and S&P500 closed around half a percentage point higher on Friday following comments by Donald Trump to Fox News that elevated tariffs on China are not “sustainable”. Markets seem to be interpreting this line as the latest incidence of TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) and bidding up risk (except Bitcoin) as a result. Gold prices dipped from record highs, yields on 10-year Treasuries fell 3.5bps and the DXY index strengthened to 98.43
Unfortunately, Trump didn’t quite clarify who the tariffs were unsustainable for, and neglected to mention that other features of the US economic relationship with China are not sustainable either. Large and growing trade imbalances and Chinese power over critical supply chains are cases in point. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pointed to these last week when he accused China of pointing “a bazooka at the supply chains and the industrial base of the entire free world.” Saying “we’re not going to have it.” Thems don’t sound like TACO words to me.
Happily, for markets, Bessent DID say that there is a good chance that the additional 100% tariff on China slated to come into effect on November 1st won’t actually happen, but he framed this as a decision that would ultimately depend on the outcome of an upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping later this month. Effectively, this should be read as a statement that the ball is in China’s court.
If Beijing engages on rebalancing its economy towards domestic consumption and walks back restrictions on the export of critical minerals, the tariffs won’t happen (this might be called the ‘XACO trade’). If Beijing doesn’t engage, well... Bessent also just warned that national policy won’t be directed by the price action of the S&P500 – he doesn’t care about your stock portfolio.
The United States is hardly standing still on addressing its own weaknesses when it comes to supply chains. US port fees on Chinese-owned and Chinese-built vessels took effect last week, and the Australian PM Albanese will be meeting with President Trump today with a menu of offerings to help solve US vulnerabilities regarding rare earths.
Albanese himself will be walking something of a geopolitical tightrope as he seeks to offend China (Australia’s #1 trading partner) as little as possible while also securing US investment in rare earths mining and processing to break China’s monopoly, US commitment to the China-oriented AUKUS defence pact and a sweetheart deal on tariffs (perhaps emulating the UK’s arrangements for steel and aluminium), all while resisting Scott Bessent’s suggestion of last week that the world should “decouple” from China over rare earths. Securing US subsidies for investment in foreign commodity production is likely to be a tall ask. Might Trump seek to extract a 3.5% of GDP defence spending commitment in return? Would Albo agree? What will Beijing say if he does?
Needless to say, the US continues to make waves geopolitically. This is particularly the case regarding the revamped Monroe Doctrine in South America. Trump recently disclosed that the CIA has been active in Venezuela while holding out the possibility of land strikes. The FT yesterday reported that Trump’s goal has now shifted from countering drug trafficking to toppling the Maduro regime, who happens to preside over the world’s largest proven oil reserves alongside deposits of gold, diamonds and coltan (used for capacitors, aerospace applications, electric vehicles and 5G infrastructure).
Additionally, Trump has recently tied commitments to provide financial bailouts and US Dollar swaplines to Argentina to Javier Milei’s fortunes at upcoming midterm elections. “If he wins, we’re staying with him. If he doesn’t win, we’re gone.” He has also suspended aid payments to Colombia, accusing the country’s left-wing President of being a “drug dealer”. Bolivia, meanwhile, looks set to close the book on 20 years of socialist government to elect a right-wing hardliner in what US Secretary of State Rubio described as “one of the more promising developments” in Latin America.
Clearly, the US is directing traffic in its own backyard. The ‘Western Hemisphere’ is seen as the US’s exclusive domain, and other Great Powers are not invited. For evidence of this think the tariff treatment of Brazil after cozying up to China, the bolstering of US naval supremacy across two oceans by taking back the Panama Canal, and the joking-but-not-really offers to make Canada the 51st state and to buy Greenland to freeze China and Russia out of Arctic shipping and resources (to whit, the US is now collaborating with Finland to build a new fleet of icebreakers). Expect all of this to feature in the updated National Defense Strategy set to be published soon.
Additionally, the US has been racking up wins in the Middle East and denting the ambitions of Russia and China to exert influence in central Asia – a geography that virtually every Great Power since Alexander the Great has understood to be vitally important. The Gaza peace is holding, despite wobbles over the weekend, and Iran has been cowed (for now). Oil continues to be priced in Dollars and the Israeli strike on Qatar seems to have sufficiently put the wind up other regional players to convince them to play ball with US foreign policy goals. Saudi Arabia is reportedly in talks for a new defense pact with the USA that is likely to be signed next month, the Abraham Accords are suddenly back in play and hints of trade détente with India might put the IMEEC corridor back on the horizon as a challenger to China’s One Belt One Road initiative.
So, geopolitically the cards still look to be falling the way of the United States in many respects but the huge structural imbalances on trade remain. Before we get too carried away with buying the dip on the latest hopes of TACO perhaps it is worth remembering that the advocates of TACO theory are mostly the same people who told us that universal tariffs would never happen, yet here we are. To predict what is likely to be the direction of travel on trade there is only one indicator you need to watch, and that is the US goods trade balance.
President Trump spoke about his relationship with Xi and the possibility of trade deals with China during his meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese this morning.
"I expect we'll probably work out a very fair deal with President Xi of China," Trump said Monday, as he repeatedly returned to his dynamics with China.
"They will threaten us with rare earths. I don't think they're threatening us too much right now, but they could do that," Trump said.
"But I threaten them with something I think is much more powerful, and it's tariffs."
Trump's words moved markets up and down (but not significantly)...
1145ET *TRUMP: CHINA MAY PAY 155% TARIFF IF NO DEAL BY NOV 1 - Stocks down
1155ET *TRUMP: WE'LL END UP WITH STRONG TRADE DEAL WITH CHINA - Stocks up
1215ET *TRUMP: COULD THREATEN CHINA WITH AIRPLANE EXPORT CONTROLS - Stocks down
1220ET *TRUMP: I WANT CHINA TO THRIVE - Stocks up
This follows comments late Sunday by President Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One while en route from Florida to Washington, telling reporters that rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans would be key topics in his upcoming meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit later this month.
The goal of the meeting is to defuse the latest round of trade war tensions between the world's two largest economies, which have sent financial markets on a rollercoaster ride in recent weeks.
"I don't want them playing the rare earth game with us," Trump told reporters. Just days earlier, he warned that he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1 unless Beijing reverses its newly expanded export restrictions on rare-earth minerals and magnets. Goldman briefed clients on rare-earths and tariff threats on Sunday (read here).
The president noted that he wants Beijing "to stop with the fentanyl," referring to his calls for the world's second-largest economy to halt the export of fentanyl precursor chemicals fueling America's drug crisis, which has led to 100,000 U.S. overdose deaths each year (read this). Some view the fentanyl trade as a form of "reverse opium war," or, as we detailed in a recent note, part of a multifaceted "total war" against the U.S. that leverages next-generation weapons, including synthetic narcotics (e.g., fentanyl and cannabinoids), bioweapons (e.g., Covid-19), psychological manipulation and influence (e.g., TikTok), and a broad arsenal of irregular warfare tools.
Trump on what he wants from China:
— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) October 20, 2025
--for them to restart buying soybeans "at least in the amount that they were buying before."
-- "to stop with the fentanyl."
--"I don't want them to play the rare earth game with us."
It's "very, you know, normal things," he said on AF1. pic.twitter.com/wxGZFbuEkg
Another key demand Trump laid out on Air Force One ahead of his meeting with Xi is that Beijing resume soybean purchases. He said these three topics were all "very, you know, normal things."
Soybeans have been a big issue in recent weeks:
China's Soybean Boycott - Key Questions Before Trump-Xi Meeting
Stocks Dump As Trump Says China Committing "Economically Hostile Act"
U.S. Soybean Exports Show Signs Of Recovery - Even As China Pivots Elsewhere
U.S. Farmers Are Facing The Worst Economic Downturn In At Least 50 Years
This week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to meet with China's top trade negotiators in Malaysia, following a virtual meeting last Friday with Vice Premier He Lifeng that Chinese state media characterized as a "constructive exchange of views." The talks are seen as a key pathway to de-escalating tensions ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting.
Bloomberg noted a regular press briefing in Beijing earlier today, where Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun was asked about Trump's three issues.
Jiakun responded by saying that a "trade war does not serve the interests of either party, and both sides should negotiate and resolve relevant issues on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit."
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 13:00President Zelensky got rejected on Tomahawks, but is now seeking to finalizing a deal to purchase 25 Patriot air defense systems, which the Ukrainian leader has described as a major step forward in strengthening the country's defenses against Russia's ongoing aerial assaults.
Zelensky has told reporters in fresh remarks that the agreement envisions the delivery of multiple systems each year over a period of several years. Additionally, key European partners are expected to grant Ukraine priority access to Patriot systems when they come off the production line.
Getty Images
What's more is that Zelensky wants to use Russian funds to buy the air defense missiles. "Speaking in Kyiv after talks with Trump and American weapons-makers, Zelenskyy said Ukraine needed 25 US Patriot anti-missile batteries and that Russia's frozen assets in the west should be used to buy them," The Guardian reports.
Ukraine's energy sites and electrical grid are getting pummeled by nightly Russian missile and drone assaults, which have resulted in forced rolling blackouts to keep the lights on as much as possible across the country, and all ahead of winter when resources tend to be at their most strained.
At the moment, President Trump is being widely accused in mainstream media of essentially selling out the Ukrainians and siding with Putin related to potential future terms of a peace settlement:
Behind the scenes, Trump had pushed Zelenskyy to give up swaths of territory to Russia, two people briefed on the discussion told Reuters. “Let it be cut the way it is,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One on Sunday. “It’s cut up right now,” he said, adding that you can “leave it the way it is right now”.
“They can negotiate something later on down the line,” he said. But for now, both sides of the conflict should “stop at the battle line – go home, stop fighting, stop killing people”.
This would indeed give Russia effective control of some 20% of Ukraine, and the idea is that the battlelines would be 'frozen' as a more comprehensive deal is hammered out.
It could be that Trump is finally getting realistic about the conflict - the Russians are not going to pack up and leave the battle lines, and territorial concessions are what will end the war, whether Kiev likes it or not.
Q: Did you tell Zelenskyy he needed to cede all of the Donbas region to Russia?
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 20, 2025
TRUMP: No, we never discussed it. We think that what they should do is just stop at the lines where they are.
Q: What do you think should happen with the Donbas region?
TRUMP: I think 78% of the… pic.twitter.com/y6y8wMz6LR
Interestingly, Zelensky has also newly indicated he would be open to traveling to Budapest, where Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are expected to meet, in the scenario of trilateral or "shuttle diplomacy"; however, neither side has offered this to him.
He and the Europeans fear getting 'cut out' or sidelined from Moscow-Washington agreements. So far, the biggest hawks who seek to prevent Zelensky from striking real compromise are in the European capitals.
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 12:25Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
The recent market crack certainly woke up the more complacent bullish investors. Of course, the complacency was warranted, given the recent market surge, conversations about “TINA” (There Is No Alternative), and how “this time is different.” But that is what a speculative bull run looks and feels like. However, deep inside, you know there are risks. Valuations seem insane, credit spreads are historically tight, and sentiment and trading activity push more speculative extremes. Such is why, while considered “bearish,” we discuss risk management protocols. Why? Because such actions can protect you when it matters most. This is why I want to discuss a different approach to portfolio management with you today. Rather, how to think like a “bear,” so you see the risks of the speculative bull run. However, to act like a “bull” to capture the gains while available.
But that is a difficult skill to master.
Yes, thinking like a bear means you are aware of the exceedingly high levels of investor complacency, that valuations are stretched, and credit spreads have been crushed. Furthermore, margin debt is at very high levels, which provides the fuel for the eventual downturn.
The problem with speculative bull runs is that they always end, and most of the time that ending is destructive. It is inherently logical that, as an investor, you want to move to protect your capital. The problem is that a bearish posture can lead to more severe underperformance because the market is in full speculative mode. Such is why, as an investor, it is logical to engage in bearish thinking, but must maintain a bullish bias amid a bull run. That means you must engage selectively, ride momentum where it leads, and keep disciplined exits.
As noted, that is a difficult skill to master, but that is your edge: you see the warning signs, yet you don’t surrender to them too early.
Howard Marks once argued that psychology overwhelmingly defines speculative bull runs. Price divorces value as crowds chase narratives. While the optimists win short-term, and the pessimists are mocked, Marks warns that during these periods, “value” takes a back seat and momentum becomes the dominant force. Marks underscored that manias shift the center of gravity from intrinsic worth to consensus euphoria. So when you think like a bear, your job is not to dogmatically short every overvalued name, but to structure your exposure to survive the mania’s reversal.
However, marrying the two mindsets is challenging. While valuation models can anchor your long‑term expectations, near-term indicators like relative strength and momentum overlays can help navigate potentially dangerous waters. Like any good captain in uncharted waters, they follow the navigation but pay attention to their instincts.
Why Fundamental Analysis Alone Fails in Mania ModeUnder normal conditions, valuation metrics drive returns. You buy cheap (low P/S, high free cash flow yield, strong ROE) and wait for mean reversion. But in a speculative bull run, those rules often fail. As discussed recently, high volatility and “bad balance sheet” (poor fundamentals) are what investors are chasing. That is because the perceived risk of loss is extremely low, even though it is not.
But that is what happens during market manias. As the crowd chases momentum and dismisses warnings, it pushes prices beyond what the underlying assets justify. This is what is called “valuation expansion.” As shown below, valuations, in the short term, reflect consumer (investor) sentiment. The chart shows the correlation between consumers’ expectations of higher prices in 12 months versus trailing 12-month valuations.
Warren Buffett emphasized this point, stating that in speculative manias, the market becomes a voting machine first (popularity), then later a weighing machine (intrinsic value). In mania phases, price can outrun value over long periods before eventually reverting. Betting on the value convergence too early is dangerous. The reason, as John Maynard Keynes noted, is that.“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
As we discussed in a recent #BullBearReport on the AI Bubble:
“The critical issue for investors, both then and now, was that many were “right” about the Dot.com bubble. However, they were so early in their warnings that they were wrong in their portfolios. The same warning applies currently. Is there a bubble in AI? Maybe. But, I would even suggest that it is pretty likely. As investors, we must realize that during the “inflation” phase of the bubble, there is a lot of money to be made, but the cycle will eventually end.”
That’s why fighting parabolic moves can be so problematic. As Peter Lynch once stated:
“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”
Thus, if you followed pure valuation discipline, you would often be sidelined during the high-return leg. Worse, you might have to “catch the knife” when the reversal begins. So you need to adapt your thinking to allow “bearishness” to control risk, but remain “bullish” to allow for the fact that momentum may temporarily drive prices higher..
One pitfall, however, is correlation. Historically non-correlated assets in speculative environments will move in tandem as investors look for the next speculative opportunity. Large-cap, high volatility, emerging market, international, gold, and bitcoin are all being chased higher in the current market. Each has its own narrative to justify its move higher, but buyers’ speculative fervor outstripping supply pushes prices further. In this environment, traditional diversification will likely fail to protect you in a downturn. Your differentiation comes from picking “which” levered momentum plays to hold and having triggers to exit them before they become toxic.
The good news is that markets do not collapse at once, and you will not wake up one morning with stocks down 50%. Instead, the initial sharp move lower will signal that some market “dynamic” has shifted. No one will ever know what that will be in advance. However, it will be an event that causes investors to “revalue” their forward earnings estimates. If those estimates decline, the current market will be repriced for lower future earnings. As shown, there is a high correlation between the market and the 12-month rate of change in forward earnings estimates.
The lesson is that valuation signals are essential but insufficient. You need momentum lenses, risk thresholds, and rules for scaling exposure and exiting when conditions shift. These give you a fighting chance in a speculative bull run.
How to Manage Risk & Exposure During the ManiaYou have a framework now: think like a bear, engage like a bull, and overlay defenses. But how do you operationalize that in real portfolios? Below are the steps and principles from our approach and Mark’s wisdom.
Establish trend break rules and define when the trend is broken. Use moving averages, momentum divergences, or multi‑timeframe trend signals. When a trend breaks, reduce exposure.
Scale into exposure. Don’t go all in at once. Add when strength confirms. If the market corrects, your position is still manageable.
Use stop zones and dynamic trailing thresholds. Set stop levels or trailing stops that adapt. Cut losers early. Lock in profits on winners when they begin to stall.
Tier exposure by risk class. Have distinct layers: value core, momentum growth sleeve, and optional speculative layer. The speculative layer should be small, optional, and easy to cut.
Monitor outside‑equity signals. Watch credit spreads, yield curves, bond markets, and sentiment extremes. Those often show cracks before equities do.
Transition to a defensive posture incrementally. Move from “stop buying” to “reduce aggressive holdings” rather than all at once. You don’t have to hit complete defense unless the trends demand.
Always maintain optionality. Hold dry powder. Leave capacity to enter new momentum trends or reallocate when the old ones shed. You want to be able to pivot.
Accept uncertainty and probabilistic thinking. Risk and probability matter more than certainty. You can’t know exactly when the shift happens, but you can manage positioning around probabilities.
Be unemotional and contrarian at extremes. Great investors are unemotional. In extremes, follow contrarian logic: reduce exposure when others lean heavily in. Resist being swept by sentiment. At mania highs, the crowd is usually at its most overextended.
Review and adapt constantly. Conditions change. What looks good today may become a trap tomorrow. Stay vigilant. Reassess allocations regularly.
By applying these rules, you can capture much of the upside of a speculative market while protecting against the inevitable reversion.
A Roadmap: Where This Strategy Wins and When It LosesThis hybrid approach is not perfect. There are strengths, and there are risks. But it’s more durable than rigid value or blind momentum.
When it wins:
During strong speculative rallies, where momentum dominates, investors can participate in the gains and avoid collapsing names.
Technical signals can keep investors aligned with the market in environments where fundamentals are weak but liquidity and psychology are strong.
When the trend eventually breaks, stop rules trigger exits, preserving investor capital.
When it struggles:
Momentum-based strategies will fail if the trend reverses abruptly and violently without warning.
During choppy market phases, investors will likely suffer underperformance when the trend direction is unclear, as trend signals whipsaw.
A pure value strategy will outperform in sustained value-driven rebounds (after deep crashes), where fundamentals again dominate.
You mitigate those risks by:
Staying light in speculative exposures
Keeping a strong value core
Loosening stop logic in volatile whipsaw phases
Being ready to switch investment strategies when the cycle changes
The path isn’t perfect, but it gives you flexibility.
Think Like a Bear, Invest Like A BullIn today’s market environment, where risk is elevated, it can pay to “think like a bear, but invest like a bull.” As Howard Marks previously wrote about navigating speculative manias:
“In hot times, the few who do remember the past are dismissed as relics of the old, lacking the ability to imagine the new. But it invariably turns out that there’s nothing new in terms of investor behavior. Mark Twain said that “history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme,” and what rhymes are the important themes.
The bottom line is that even though knowing financial history is important, requiring people to study it won’t make a big difference, because they’ll ignore its lessons. There’s a very strong tendency for people to believe in things which, if true, would make them rich. As Demosthenes said, “For that a man wishes, he generally believes to be true”
Just like in the movies, where they show a person in a dilemma to have an angel on one side and a devil on the other, in the case of investing, investors have prudence and memory on one shoulder and greed on the other. Most of the time greed wins. As long as human nature is part of the investment environment, which it always will be, we’ll experience bubbles and crashes.“
There have only been a few points in history where the market is as overbought and extended, technically, as it is currently.
Given that knowledge, investors must learn to live in tension. Think like a bear, so you’re ready for danger. Invest like a bull to participate in the current wealth-building opportunity. No rule says you can ONLY be a bull or a bear. It is okay, and logical, to be a bit of both.
Critically, you must adopt probabilistic thinking and reject certainty.
This combined approach gives you a fighting chance in environments where liquidity and psychology override fundamentals. It also preserves your survival when sentiment eventually reverses.
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 12:10OpenAI's aggressive expansion of datacenters and infrastructure investments - along with its massive pipeline of future projects, fueled by what we call a "circle jerk" in AI vendor financing - has prompted warnings from Microsoft executives that meeting all of Sam Altman's infrastructure demands could generate overcapacity risks over data centers, according to The Information. Meanwhile, a separate TechCrunch report indicates that ChatGPT's mobile app growth may have already peaked.
An OpenAI employee told The Information that the chatbot startup ($500 billion valuation) has budgeted approximately $450 billion in server expenses through 2030, with additional plans to rent servers from Microsoft and Oracle.
OpenAI has made requests for increased computing capacity with Microsoft, which has sparked internal friction between both companies. Microsoft retains "first dibs" on supplying OpenAI data center capacity due to its $13 billion investment; however, practical constraints such as construction limits and power market woes have slowed its ability to scale.
Microsoft executives, including CFO Amy Hood, cautioned against overbuilding servers that might not yield returns, while OpenAI CEO Altman pushed for faster expansion.
The Information continued:
There are usually two sides to most stories of marital friction. For OpenAI, its frustrations speak to the startup's seemingly bottomless computing needs, which have multiplied by the month. Over the past year, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman frequently pressed Microsoft to move more quickly in adding capacity to meet those needs.
And for their part, Microsoft leaders told Altman the company simply couldn't supply that capacity as fast as he wanted due to fundamental constraints in the construction process, such as connecting new data centers to power. Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood and her staff told colleagues that catering to OpenAI's demands could put Microsoft at risk of overbuilding servers that might not produce a financial return, according to people involved in the discussions.
Eventually, the two companies came to a resolution. In the summer of 2024, Altman and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella agreed it would be impossible for Microsoft to be the startup's sole cloud provider given OpenAI's recent growth, according to people who spoke to them. As a result, Microsoft began granting OpenAI waivers to strike deals with other cloud providers.
Hood's overbuilding server risk comes around the time that new global daily active user (DAUs) data from third-party app intelligence firm Apptopia shows "ChatGPT's mobile app growth may have hit its peak," according to TechCrunch.
In the U.S...
And more evidence that ChatGPT's hype is fading.
Fueling the data center bubble and breaking down how the giant "circle jerk" works, we exposed the infinite money glitch earlier this month.
More complex via Bloomberg.
Super impressive Capex by hyperscalers.
And comes as:
While the Bank of England warned earlier this month that AI-related valuations are "stretched." The irony of this warning is that central bankers very rarely make the right calls.
This story builds on:
The bigger question is whether user fatigue with AI products is only now beginning to emerge. If that's the case, Hood's concerns about OpenAI's aggressive expansion may be justified, as Goldman's James Schneider told clients, "The net impact of our model updates extends the duration of peak datacenter occupancy well into 2026 (from the end of 2025 previously). After this point, we forecast a modest, but gradual loosening of supply/demand balance in 2027..."
Schneider added more color:
Reconciling our revised supply and demand updates, our baseline forecast for supply sufficiency stays largely unchanged in 2025 at 92% but increases by an average of 2% in 2026 to 92%, and 2% in 2027 to 92% - with a longer-term forecast supply sufficiency of 89% by 2030 - a 1% increase from our prior version of the supply/demand model. As a result, we now believe the peak of datacenter supply sufficiency is likely to be pushed out into 2026, from the end of 2025 as previously forecast. We believe the datacenter market's current supply/demand tightness will extend for longer, and our model continues to suggest that market occupancy will stabilize around average levels seen over the past 18 months. In summary, we believe the outlook for datacenter supply, demand, and their implied supply sufficiency remains relatively healthy for now. We continue to watch for incremental datapoints that could cause a shift in expectations - and we are closely watching for any changes (GPU demand, AI model efficiencies, announced incremental supply additions such as Stargate) that could significantly impact medium-term supply/demand balance.
ZeroHedge Pro Subs can read the full global datacenter supply/demand report in the usual place.
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 11:50
Click on graph for larger image.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.China's economic growth slowed to the weakest pace in a year in the third quarter as fragile domestic demand left it heavily reliant on the output of its exporting factories - which have sparked a global deflationary shockwave as China seeks to capture market share abroad through cutthroat price cuts sparking outrage among traditional Chinese clients - and stoking concerns about deepening structural imbalances.
While the 4.8% GDP print for Q3 came fractionally above expectations and kept China on track to reach its target of roughly 5% this year, the economy's dependence on external demand at a time of mounting trade tensions with Washington raises questions over whether that pace can be sustained. It's why analysts said further policy support is urgently needed to maintain this stable trajectory and improve domestic demand.
The rest of the Chinese data dump overnight was mixed:
Some notes here from Goldman:
Main points:
According to Goldman, despite recent developments in US-China tensions, we believe China's full-year growth target remains largely on track, given that real GDP grew 5.2% yoy during the first three quarters of this year and exports (driven by tariff frontrunning) remain resilient. Additionally, Goldman does not think policymakers see an immediate need to launch broad-based, significant stimulus in the near-term, even though incremental and targeted easing appears necessary in coming quarters to ensure stable growth and employment into next year. The majority of the growth impulse of recent easing measures -- including the nationwide childbirth subsidies, the RMB500bn policy bank new financing instrument, and the use of an RMB500bn unspent local government bond issuance quota accumulated from previous years – will likely be concentrated in late 2025 or early 2026.
That's the optimistic view. A rather more realistic one comes from Reuters which writes that Beijing may be using the headline "resilience" in growth as a show of strength in talks between its vice premier He Lifeng and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Malaysia in coming days and a potential meeting between presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea later.
This downbeat view is reinforced by the latest observations from Bloomberg's Econ team which overnight wrote that China's 7% investment slump shows deep demand weakness. According to a note published by BBG overnight, China’s latest data dump reassures near-term growth but underscores long-term challenges. Third-quarter GDP growth of 4.8% means the economy only needs to clear a low bar of 4.5% in 4Q to meet the 5% full-year target, helped by a surge in production.
Yet the imbalance between supply and demand has aggravated. Consumption remains weak, and investment - including public investment - has emerged as the weakest link. That's because Bloomberg Economics calculates that fixed-asset investment contracted for the fourth month in a row, by as much as 7% in September.
The same supply-demand imbalance is evident in the month-on-month comparison. Industrial production rose 0.64% — the highest in seven months and in line with the pre-pandemic trend - while retail sales fell 0.18%, the third monthly contraction in four months.
As shown below, the collapse in fixed-asset investment has become became the biggest drag on the economy, as government-led investment lost steam. Investment has deteriorated across the board, in both the private and public sectors. The latter is particularly concerning, as government-led investment has been the primary driver of investment over the past few years. BBG calculates that government-led investment declined year-on-year through 3Q, including an 8% drop in September.
Slowing consumption is another drag on the economy. BBG estimates that retail sales growth fell below the pre-stimulus trend for the first time in September since the government ramped up stimulus in September 2024. In September, catering revenue rose only 0.9% year on year, the same as in June — the lowest growth rate since 2023. This reflected cautious consumption of households — as they spent less on unnecessary items. In addition, home appliance sales have slowed rapidly, indicating that the boost from government subsidies is fading. Sales in September increased 3.3% from a year earlier, far lower than that in August (14.3%) or July (28.7%).
Meanwhile, the only silver lining - the ongoing export strength, which itself is a function of the trade war - belies weakness on home turf, where lacklustre demand gives manufacturers no choice but to fight price wars in foreign markets, and compromise on their profitability.
Jeremy Fang, a sales officer at a Chinese aluminium products maker, says his firm lost 20% of revenue as higher sales in Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, Turkey and the Middle East failed to fully offset an 80%-90% order plunge in the US. Fang said he is learning Spanish to get ahead of his Chinese competitors rushing to non-U.S. markets and is now traveling abroad twice more often than he did last year.
But that extra effort isn’t enough.
"You have to be ruthlessly competitive on price," Fang said. "If your price is $100 and the customer starts bargaining, it's better to drop $10-$20 and take the order. You can't hesitate."
This also explains why despite the surging tariffs, goods increases on US imports remains very tame.
This intense competition among Chinese exporters feeds further weakness at home, with many having to cut wages and even jobs to stay in the race. As noted above, while industrial output grew to a three-month high of 6.5% year-on-year in September, beating forecasts, retail sales slowed to a 10-month low of 3.0%.
Further hitting consumers by making them feel less wealthy, data also showed new home prices falling at their fastest pace in 11 months in September. Investment in the crisis-hit property sector fell 13.9% year-on-year in the first three quarters, which is devastating for a country where some 55% of household net worth - among the highest in the world - is found in real estate.
"China’s growth is becoming increasingly dependent on exports, which are offsetting a slowdown in domestic demand," said Capital Economics analyst Julian Evans-Pritchard.
"This pattern of development is not sustainable, and so growth is at risk of slowing further over the medium-term unless the authorities take much more proactive steps to support consumer spending."
Such calls for structural measures that make China's economy more reliant on household consumption have grown louder ahead of this week's key Communist Party meeting, where its elites will discuss the country's next five-year development plan (see "Trader's Guide To Biggest China Political Meeting Starting Monday").
But while the meeting is likely to result in pledges to boost domestic demand, it will also emphasize breaking through technological frontiers and upgrading the country's sprawling industrial complex as a national security priority. This could keep the flow of economic resources tilted primarily towards manufacturers at the expense of households.
A change in its growth model would make China a bigger contributor to global demand and might help tone down trade tensions. But there is no sign that Beijing is willing to relent on the industrial front as competition with the U.S. intensifies. So far, it has been successful in diversifying away from U.S. markets. Its U.S. export sales were down 27% year-on-year last month, but shipments to the European Union, Southeast Asia and Africa grew by 14%, 15.6% and 56.4%, respectively.
And China is using its near-monopoly position in the production of rare earths as leverage to try to extract more concessions from Washington. This prompted renewed threats from Trump to add another 100 percentage points to tariffs on imports from China, but also messages from Washington that the two sides are willing to lower the temperature.
Triple-digit tariffs would effectively place a painful trade embargo on the world's two largest economies, but Beijing might feel it can bear the pain for longer.
"Relatively speaking, China is in a better position than the U.S.," said Yuan Yuwei, hedge fund manager at Water Wisdom Asset Management. "At worst, ordinary people may tighten their belts and some workers are left idle. But in the U.S., if you cut 10-20% of worker's salary, people go out into the street to protest. China can suffer for longer than the U.S."
If policymakers feel the economy is veering off target in the fourth quarter, one option is to speed up infrastructure investment given that they are currently frontloading 2026 debt issuance. After all, fixed-asset investment shrank 0.5% in January-September from a year earlier, suggesting room for improvement in that area.
Some analysts believe Beijing doesn't need more stimulus measures this year. But others still see a strong case to offer support to underperforming sectors.
"With China on track to hit this year's growth target, we could see less policy urgency," said Lynn Song, chief economist, Greater China at ING.
"But weak confidence translating to soft consumption, investment, and a worsening property price downturn still need to be addressed."
Sure enough, China's consumer confidence never managed to recovery after the covid crash, suggesting that behind the cheerful rhetoric, the mood on the ground in China is cataclysmic and that contrary to soundbites, should Trump continue to push and prod China in the ongoing trade war, he may well get what he wants.
Looking ahead, Goldman writes that the divergent supply and demand trends underscore the need for the government to find effective ways to support growth, even if the economy does not require an additional boost in 4Q. The bank sees less monetary easing in 4Q, with only one possible cut in either the policy rate or the reserve requirement ratio, unlike earlier expectation of moves on both fronts. On the fiscal front, the focus will likely be on implementation and early groundwork for 2026, such as front-loading bond issuance and putting funds in place for projects. The sharp decline in government investment highlights the urgency of identifying more viable investment projects and social programs to spur consumption.
Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 11:20
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