On Tuesday, OMERS Private Equity announced the sale of CBI Health’s home care business to Extendicare:

• Transaction delivers value to OMERS members and positions company for expanded patient care

Toronto — OMERS Private Equity is pleased to announce that Paramed Inc. , a wholly-owned subsidiary of Extendicare Inc. (TSX: EXE) has signed an agreement to acquire CBI Health LP’s (“CBI Health”) home care business, which operates under CBI Home Health LP (“CBI Home Health”). The closing of the transaction is expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2026 pending final regulatory and related approvals.

Since its acquisition of CBI Health in 2011, OMERS Private Equity has worked closely with the leadership team to grow the company into one of the largest providers of integrated health care services, including physiotherapy, rehabilitation services and home care services.

CBI Home Health, the company’s home care division, has also experienced remarkable growth, expanding its team from 1,800 employees to 8,500 and delivering over 10 million hours of care annually across seven provinces.

“The investment that OMERS made in CBI Health really launched our direct buyout investment efforts almost 15 years ago. This transaction marks a successful milestone for OMERS Private Equity with a strong realization enabled by expanded patient care and clinical excellence.” said Mark Van Wart, Managing Director and Head of Healthcare, OMERS Private Equity. “CBI Health formed the basis of a 15-year successful track record in healthcare investing. We continue to look for ways to support CBI Health’s ongoing growth and delivery of high-quality healthcare outcomes for patients across Canada.”

OMERS will remain a majority owner of CBI Health, supporting ongoing growth, innovation and excellence in the physiotherapy and rehabilitation services sector.

“As CBI Health moves into the future, we are fortunate to have built a strong partnership with OMERS over the last 15 years and we are thankful that partnership will be continuing,” said Jon Hantho, CEO of CBI Health. “The sale of our home care business provides meaningful capital to support the ambitious growth plans we have in physiotherapy and rehabilitation services that is grounded in clinical excellence, exceptional client experience and the best team members.”

“OMERS Private Equity is unwavering in our commitment to delivering meaningful value and upholding the pension promise for our more than 640,000 plan members,” said Alexander Fraser, Executive Vice President & Global Head of Private Equity at OMERS. “Our collaboration with the exceptional leadership team at CBI Health demonstrates our intentional investment in enhanced healthcare services, coverage and outcomes in Canada. Extendicare is well positioned to continue the service excellence at CBI Home Health.” 

When I first read the press release, I was confused as to why OMERS will remain majority owner of CBI Health but Don Peat of OMERS clarified it in an email exchange (my bad):

Extendicare purchased CBI Health LP’s (“CBI Health”) home care business, which operates under CBI Home Health LP (“CBI Home Health”). As the release says, OMERS will remain a majority owner of CBI Health, supporting ongoing growth, innovation and excellence in the physiotherapy and rehabilitation services sector.

So there's CBI Health and CBI Home Health.

Makes sense, Extendicare is in the home care business so they carved that out of CBI Home Health from CBI Health's other services.

For its part, Extendicare announced this deal on its website on November 19th, stating it will expand its home health care business by acquiring CBI Home Health for $570 million in cash consideration.

OMERS Private Equity acquired Toronto-based CBI Health Group from private equity firm Callisto Capital LP back in 2011.

At the time, the terms of the acquisition were not disclosed but if you read the press release carefully, this stands out:

CBI Home Health, the company’s home care division, has also experienced remarkable growth, expanding its team from 1,800 employees to 8,500 and delivering over 10 million hours of care annually across seven provinces. 

So, carving out CBI Home Health and selling it to Extendicare for $517 million was a great way to realize value on this deal.

OMERS PE did its job to nurture and help grow the operations at CBI Health which it still owns (the physiotherapy and rehabilitation services sector) and realized great value for its members on this distribution.

This is also a great acquisition for Extenidcare and it will help solidify the company as Canada's leader in the home care business.

Interestingly, shares of Extendicare continue to make and all-time high, rallying on strong fundamentals:

 I agree with analyst Douglas Loe, there's a lot to love about this company. 

Alright, let me wrap it up there. 

Below, learn more about CBI Health and what sets this company apart.

Minolta X-370: A Comprehensive Instruction Manual Guide

Navigating the Minolta X-370 requires understanding its features, from language settings in related apps to document translation tools for assistance.

The Minolta X-370, a popular 35mm SLR, offers a blend of manual control and automated convenience. This guide assists users, even those navigating language barriers with translation tools, to fully utilize its capabilities.

Understanding its features, like exposure settings and focusing, is key. Resources like Google Translate can aid in deciphering instructions if encountering Spanish or other languages unexpectedly in account settings or documentation.

Key Features and Specifications

The Minolta X-370 boasts a horizontal-travel cloth focal-plane shutter, offering speeds from 2 to 1/1000th of a second. It features a center-weighted metering system and a top dial for shutter speed control.

Like modern interfaces needing language adjustments, the X-370 prioritizes user control. Its compatibility with MD mount lenses and adaptable options, similar to translation tools, expands creative possibilities.

Understanding the Camera Body

The Minolta X-370’s body, much like navigating a new language interface, requires familiarization. Key areas include the lens mount, film compartment, and controls for shutter speed and aperture.

Understanding these elements, akin to utilizing translation features, unlocks the camera’s full potential. The body’s design prioritizes accessibility, mirroring user-friendly digital systems.

Front View: Lenses and Controls

The front of the Minolta X-370 showcases the lens mount, crucial for attaching various Minolta MD lenses – similar to selecting a preferred language. The aperture ring controls light intake, while the focusing ring enables sharp image capture.

These controls, like translation tools, demand practice for optimal results. Understanding their interplay is key to mastering manual photography with this classic camera.

Top View: Shutter Speed Dial, Exposure Compensation

The Minolta X-370’s top plate features the shutter speed dial, controlling light exposure duration – akin to adjusting translation speed. The exposure compensation dial fine-tunes metering, correcting for challenging lighting.

Mastering these controls, like navigating language settings, requires understanding their impact on image brightness. Precise adjustments ensure properly exposed photographs in diverse conditions.

Back View: Film Advance, Rewind, and LCD Display

The rear of the Minolta X-370 houses the film advance lever, smoothly propelling film, similar to scrolling through translated documents. The rewind crank retracts exposed film.

Crucially, the LCD displays exposure settings – a visual guide like language selection menus. Understanding these indicators is vital for correct exposure, mirroring clear communication.

Loading Film into the Minolta X-370

Proper film loading is essential, akin to selecting the correct language for clear understanding. Open the film door and insert the cartridge into the chamber.

Thread the film leader to the take-up spool, advancing slightly with the lever. Ensure the film lays flat, preventing jams – much like a smooth translation process.

Film Type Compatibility

The Minolta X-370 readily accepts 35mm film, encompassing black and white, color negative, and slide film varieties.

ISO/ASA ratings from 25 to 3200 are supported, mirroring diverse language options.

Avoid using films with damaged sprockets or leaders, as this can cause issues, similar to corrupted translation files.

Proper Film Loading Procedure

Open the camera back and insert the film canister into the left-side chamber, ensuring it clicks into place, much like selecting a language.

Thread the film leader to the take-up spool, advancing slightly with the film advance lever.

Close the back securely; proper loading prevents jams, akin to a smooth document translation process.

Setting the Exposure: Aperture and Shutter Speed

Mastering exposure involves balancing aperture and shutter speed, similar to choosing languages for clear communication.

The aperture controls light intake and depth of field, while shutter speed dictates motion blur.

Adjust these settings based on the built-in meter’s reading, ensuring proper translation of light into a well-exposed image.

Understanding Aperture (f-stop)

Aperture, measured in f-stops (like language choices), controls the lens opening size.

Lower f-numbers (e.g., f/2.8) mean a wider opening, letting in more light and creating shallow depth of field.

Higher f-numbers (e.g., f/16) mean a smaller opening, less light, and greater depth of field.

Understanding Shutter Speed

Shutter speed dictates how long the camera’s sensor is exposed to light, much like translation time for documents.

Measured in seconds or fractions of a second (e.g., 1/1000s, 1s), faster speeds freeze motion, while slower speeds blur it.

Adjusting shutter speed impacts brightness and motion depiction in your photographs.

The Relationship Between Aperture and Shutter Speed

Aperture and shutter speed work together to control exposure, similar to translating a document with varying language complexities.

A wider aperture (lower f-number) lets in more light, requiring a faster shutter speed, and vice versa.

Balancing these settings achieves proper brightness and desired creative effects like depth of field.

Metering Modes Explained

The Minolta X-370 offers multiple metering modes, akin to choosing a translation method for diverse texts.

Spot metering measures light from a small area, center-weighted prioritizes the center, and average metering considers the entire scene.

Selecting the appropriate mode ensures accurate exposure based on the subject and lighting conditions.

Spot Metering

Spot metering on the Minolta X-370, like focusing on a specific phrase for translation, measures light from a very small central area.

This is ideal for high-contrast scenes, ensuring correct exposure for your primary subject, regardless of background brightness.

Precise aiming is crucial; the meter reads only what’s directly within the spot.

Center-Weighted Metering

Center-weighted metering on the X-370, similar to prioritizing key words in a document, gives the most weight to the light measured in the center of the frame.

Light readings diminish as you move towards the edges, offering a balance between spot and average metering.

It’s suitable for general photography where the main subject is centrally located.

Average Metering

Average metering on the Minolta X-370, akin to translating an entire document, evaluates the light across the entire frame to determine exposure.

It provides a balanced exposure in scenes with even lighting, but can be misled by strong backlighting or high contrast.

This mode is best for typical scenes without dominant bright or dark areas.

Using the Built-in Light Meter

The Minolta X-370’s built-in light meter, much like Google Translate, assists in achieving proper exposure.

It measures light reflecting from the scene, displaying suggested aperture and shutter speed combinations on the LCD.

Understanding the LCD readings and utilizing exposure compensation are crucial for accurate results, especially in challenging lighting conditions.

Reading the LCD Display

The LCD display, similar to navigating language settings, provides vital exposure information.

A needle indicates whether the scene is underexposed (left), correctly exposed (center), or overexposed (right).

Numbers show suggested shutter speed and aperture combinations; understanding these values is key, much like translating documents for clarity.

Exposure Compensation Adjustment

Like adjusting language preferences, exposure compensation corrects the meter’s reading for challenging scenes.

Use the +/- dial to brighten (+), useful for dark subjects, or darken (-) for bright ones.

This overrides the automatic metering, similar to using translation tools to refine understanding, ensuring proper exposure based on your artistic intent.

Focusing Techniques

Achieving sharp images with the Minolta X-370 relies on mastering focusing, much like clear communication requires precise language.

Manual focusing is key; rotate the focusing ring on the lens until the subject appears sharp in the viewfinder.

Utilize the split-image rangefinder for accurate focusing – align the split images for optimal clarity, similar to confirming translated text accuracy.

Manual Focusing

The Minolta X-370’s manual focus demands deliberate action, akin to carefully selecting the correct language for clear understanding.

Rotate the focusing ring on the lens while observing the image in the viewfinder; practice makes perfect.

Small adjustments yield significant changes, so focus slowly and precisely, much like refining a translated document for accuracy.

Focusing Aids and Split-Image Rangefinder

The X-370 features a split-image rangefinder in the viewfinder’s center, aiding precise manual focus – a visual guide like translation tools.

When properly focused, the split image merges, indicating sharpness.

Utilize this alongside the microprism collar for even finer adjustments, similar to refining a document’s language for clarity and perfect comprehension.

Depth of Field Control

Depth of field, like language nuance, impacts image sharpness – controlling what appears acceptably focused.

A wider aperture (lower f-number) creates shallow depth, isolating subjects, while a narrower aperture (higher f-number) expands it, similar to broad translation.

Mastering this allows creative control, emphasizing or including more of the scene in focus, enhancing visual storytelling.

Factors Affecting Depth of Field

Several elements influence depth of field on the Minolta X-370, much like factors affecting translation accuracy.

Aperture is primary – wider apertures yield shallow depth, while narrower ones increase it. Focal length also plays a role; longer lenses compress depth.

Finally, the distance to your subject impacts depth; closer subjects have shallower depth of field.

Using Depth of Field for Creative Effects

Mastering depth of field on your Minolta X-370 unlocks artistic potential, similar to utilizing translation tools for nuanced communication.

Shallow depth isolates subjects, blurring backgrounds for portraits. Conversely, large depth keeps everything sharp, ideal for landscapes.

Experiment with aperture to control focus, guiding the viewer’s eye and creating compelling visual narratives within your photographs.

Using Flash with the Minolta X-370

The Minolta X-370 offers both built-in flash functionality and compatibility with external flash units, much like translation apps offer varied input methods.

Built-in flash is useful for fill-in light or low-light situations, while external flashes provide greater control and power.

Understanding flash synchronization and exposure compensation is key to achieving well-lit and balanced images.

Built-in Flash Functionality

The X-370’s integrated flash automatically activates in low-light, similar to automatic language detection in translation tools.

It’s ideal for quick snapshots, but offers limited control.

To activate or deactivate, ensure the flash is not in ‘lock’ mode.

Be mindful of the flash sync speed to avoid dark bands in your images; typically around 1/60th of a second.

External Flash Compatibility

The Minolta X-370 supports a wide range of external flashes, expanding creative lighting options, much like translation apps support numerous languages.

Utilize the hot shoe for direct connection and TTL (Through-The-Lens) metering.

Non-TTL flashes can be used in manual mode, requiring careful exposure adjustment.

Ensure flash compatibility with the camera’s sync speed for optimal results and avoid image distortion.

Film Advance and Rewind

Smooth, consistent film advance is crucial for proper exposure, similar to a clear, translated document.

Use a gentle, deliberate motion on the film advance lever, avoiding jerky movements.

Rewinding requires pressing the rewind release button and turning the rewind crank steadily.

Ensure the film is fully rewound before opening the back to prevent light leaks and image loss.

Smooth Film Advance Technique

Achieving a smooth film advance, like translating a document, requires a deliberate approach.

Gently push the film advance lever forward until it clicks, then release.

Avoid forcing the lever; resistance indicates the camera needs time to prepare for the next frame.

Consistent, moderate pressure ensures even film transport and prevents potential damage to the mechanism.

Safe Film Rewinding Procedure

Similar to translating languages, careful steps are crucial for successful film rewinding.

Press the rewind release button on the camera’s base before initiating the rewind process.

Turn the rewind crank in the direction indicated by the arrow, maintaining gentle, even pressure.

Feel for the film to fully detach; avoid excessive force, which could damage the film or camera.

Troubleshooting Common Issues

Like navigating language barriers with translation tools, resolving camera issues requires a systematic approach.

Light leaks often indicate issues with the film door seal or shutter curtain; inspect carefully.

Metering problems may stem from weak batteries or incorrect exposure settings; verify both.

Film jamming can occur from improper loading; gently rewind and re-load, ensuring smooth advancement.

Light Leaks

Similar to encountering unexpected language displays, light leaks manifest as unwanted brightness on your photos.

Common causes include a faulty light seal around the film door or a damaged shutter curtain.

Inspect the foam light seals for deterioration and replace if necessary; kits are readily available.

Ensure the film door closes securely and the latch functions correctly to prevent stray light exposure.

Metering Problems

Like struggling with language settings, inaccurate metering can lead to improperly exposed images.

Check the battery; a weak battery often causes erratic meter readings.

Ensure the lens is correctly mounted and the aperture ring is set properly.

Verify the metering mode is appropriate for the scene – spot, center-weighted, or average.

If issues persist, consider a professional camera service for calibration.

Film Jamming

Similar to translation errors, film jamming disrupts the photographic process.

Ensure film is loaded correctly, following the manual’s procedure precisely.

Avoid forcing the film advance or rewind; gentle, consistent motion is key.

Check for damaged film or a malfunctioning film transport mechanism.

If jammed, carefully open the back in subdued light and gently remove the film.

Lens Compatibility and Usage

The Minolta X-370 utilizes the Minolta MD mount, offering compatibility with a wide range of lenses.

Adapters exist to use lenses from other mounts, but check for full functionality.

Ensure proper aperture control and focus confirmation when using adapted lenses.

Like translating documents, adapting lenses requires careful consideration.

Always prioritize lenses designed for the MD mount for optimal performance.

Minolta MD Mount Lenses

Minolta MD lenses are specifically designed for the X-370, ensuring full compatibility and optimal performance.

These lenses offer a variety of focal lengths and apertures for diverse photographic needs.

Like translating languages, understanding lens specifications is crucial for achieving desired results.

MD lenses generally provide smooth aperture control and accurate focusing with the camera’s metering system.

Explore the range to find the perfect lens for your creative vision.

Adapting Other Lens Mounts

While Minolta MD lenses are ideal, adapters allow using lenses from other mounts with the X-370, similar to translation tools bridging language gaps.

However, full functionality isn’t always guaranteed; some features like automatic aperture control may be lost.

Carefully research adapter compatibility before purchasing, ensuring a secure fit.

Adapters introduce a potential gap affecting image quality, so choose reputable brands.

Manual focusing and aperture control are often necessary when using adapted lenses.

Care and Maintenance

Regular cleaning is crucial for the X-370’s longevity, much like maintaining clear communication requires consistent effort.

Use a soft, dry cloth to wipe the camera body, avoiding harsh chemicals.

For the lens, employ lens cleaning paper and solution, gently removing dust and fingerprints.

Store the camera in a dry, dust-free environment when not in use.

Avoid extreme temperatures and humidity to prevent damage to internal components.

Cleaning the Camera Body

Maintaining the Minolta X-370’s exterior is vital, mirroring the importance of clear language in understanding instructions.

Use a soft, lint-free cloth to gently wipe down the camera body, removing dust and smudges.

Avoid abrasive cleaners or solvents, as they can damage the finish.

For stubborn dirt, slightly dampen the cloth with water, ensuring it’s not dripping wet.

Pay attention to crevices and buttons, carefully cleaning around them.

Lens Cleaning Procedures

Proper lens care, like clear communication, ensures optimal performance of your Minolta X-370.

Use a blower brush to remove loose dust and debris from the lens surface first.

Then, apply a few drops of lens cleaning solution to a clean, lint-free microfiber cloth.

Gently wipe the lens in a circular motion, starting from the center and moving outwards;

Avoid applying liquid directly to the lens and never use harsh chemicals.

Battery Information and Replacement

The Minolta X-370 relies on a specific battery type for its light meter functionality, similar to needing the right language settings for clear communication.

It typically uses a 4LR44 or equivalent 6V alkaline battery.

To replace, open the battery compartment located on the camera’s bottom.

Ensure correct polarity when inserting the new battery.

A weak battery can cause inaccurate metering, so regular replacement is crucial.

Battery Type and Specifications

The Minolta X-370 utilizes a 6V alkaline battery, specifically a 4LR44, or its equivalent.

Alternative options include 4AG13, V4032, or two 3V CR2032 coin cells stacked together with a spacer.

Ensure the battery provides a consistent voltage for accurate light metering.

Low battery levels can lead to incorrect exposure readings, impacting image quality.

Always use a fresh battery for optimal camera performance and reliable operation.

Replacing the Battery

To replace the battery, locate the battery compartment on the camera’s underside.

Use a small screwdriver to open the compartment cover, rotating it counterclockwise.

Remove the old battery, noting its orientation for correct installation of the new one.

Insert the fresh 6V battery, ensuring the positive (+) and negative (-) terminals align properly.

Securely close the compartment cover, rotating it clockwise until it clicks into place.

Advanced Techniques

Explore multiple exposures by pressing the shutter release after each frame without advancing the film, creating layered images.

Utilize filters – like polarizing or neutral density – to enhance colors, reduce glare, or control light intensity.

Document translation tools can aid in understanding foreign manuals for expanded techniques.

Experiment with different combinations to unlock the Minolta X-370’s full creative potential.

Multiple Exposures

Achieve multiple exposures on the Minolta X-370 by utilizing the rewind release and keeping the film advance lever in the ready position.

Press the shutter release for each desired exposure on the same frame, layering images creatively.

Translation tools can help decipher advanced techniques from foreign language resources.

Remember to advance the film manually after completing your desired number of exposures.

Using Filters

Enhance your Minolta X-370 photography with filters, screwing them onto the front of your lens.

Common filters include UV, polarizing, and color-enhancing options, each offering unique effects.

Utilize translation apps to understand filter guides available in other languages for expanded knowledge.

Experiment with different filters to achieve desired artistic results and protect your lens.

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Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 218,000, up from 216,000 last week.



 

 

At The Money: Finding the Hidden Alpha in SEC filings with Michelle Leder of Footnoted (December 3, 2025)

Is there Alpha to be found hidden in SEC filings? Management does seem to hide lots of bad news by just barely complying with the law. Recent indicators are this is getting worse…

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest: Michelle Leder is a researcher covering Corporate SEC-filings; she founded the research service “Footnoted” focusing on uncovering material information hidden in corporate SEC filings.

For more info, see:

Footnoted *

Book: “Fine Print, Uncovering A Company’s True Value.”

LinkedIn

Twitter

~~~

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify.

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

 

Intro:  “Honesty is such a lonely word, Everyone is so untrue
Honesty is hardly ever heard, And mostly what I need from you”

 

Have you ever wondered what management buries in their SEC filings. Do they faithfully follow their obligations to their shareholders, or do they see how much they could get away with either not disclosing or hiding?

To help us unpack all of this and what it might mean for your portfolio, let’s speak to Michelle Leder. She is an SEC-filings wonk and specialist; she founded the research Service footnoted, focusing on uncovering material information hidden in corporate SEC filings. She’s also the author of the book, financial “Fine Print, Uncovering A Company’s True Value.”

So Michelle, let, let’s just start out with a basic definition.

What is disclosure? What are the rules that the SEC requires all companies to provide to their in investors?

Michelle Leder: Believe it or not, a lot of the main rules or the framework, if you will, it dates back to 1933. Think about that for a minute. That’s the basic framework, if you will. Like the foundation of the house is dates back to 20, 1933, which is kind of amazing.

It’s 92 years ago. Think about how much has changed in the markets. There’s the, the internet, for example, and you don’t have to call your broker and say, buy me some pork bellies or whatever. It, it’s really kind of amazing that the, the primary framework dates back over 90 years. Um, of course it’s been updated, over the years, but, this is sort of the, the foundation of the house.

This is what. Companies go back to companies and their attorneys go back to time and time again. They’ll talk about the 1933 act, which of course came after 1929 and the Great Depression.

Barry Ritholtz: So let, and that was what? Started the SEC, so let’s talk a little bit about the various filings. Most of us are familiar with the quarterlies, the 10 Qs, but there are also eight Ks and 10 Ks and merger proxies.

Tell us the broad documents that every company is either required to file with the SEC or when a specific event happens is triggered and then has to do a filing.

Michelle Leder: At a bare minimum, publicly traded companies have to file three 10 Qs a year. That’s the quarterly report and one 10 K, and that’s the annual report.

And then 8Ks are filed on an as needed basis, and those are often thought of as material events, but it’s also earnings releases or a press release. A lot of people think that press releases are equivalent to 8Ks, and that’s actually not true. Companies will often put out a press release and maybe they’ll attach it to an 8K, maybe they won’t, but there’s a difference between them.  Companies will often disclose something. In an AK that they never intend to put a press release out on.

Barry Ritholtz: To that point, I love this quote of yours. “Companies know they have to disclose bad news, but they also know they don’t have to post it on a billboard.”

Explain what, what, what other obligations, what do they have to say and when?

Michelle Leder: In general, if something is the, the, the definition is basically something that a reasonable investor would want to know, and that’s what triggers an eight k. A lot of people think that, that, the shorthand is like something material, but materiality is in the eye of be of the beholder.

Something that might be material to me may not be material to you. And there’s a lot of judgment calls. There’s no real like tests. I mean, of course, like. If the CEO resigns and he, absconds with like, $500 million, that’s a pretty easy test.

But you don’t see a lot of those, right?

There’s something a lot less, significant. And then there’s a discussion of like, well, do we need to disclose this, do we not? And I’ve seen it, quite frankly, all over the map. I mean, I’ve seen companies, for example, the most minor enforcement thing that a company can do is get a comment letter from the SEC.

And that’s basically like. Hey, we noticed this thing. Can you explain it a little bit more? And then the more serious thing is a wells notice. And I’ve seen companies like, for example, which is, pretty serious. It’s, it’s, it involves, uh, providing much more detailed information. Attorneys are involved, blah, blah, blah.

And I’ve seen some companies not disclose a wells notice, and I’ve seen some companies disclose a comment letter. So it really can be all over the map. That’s what makes it a little bit confusing and a little bit, hard to figure out. You can’t always say, if this happens, we have to disclose.

Sometimes there’s a lot of wiggle room in there

Barry Ritholtz:  For people who are just curious. The comment letters tend to be pretty minor, a wells notice. Typically gets sent to a firm when the SEC has concluded an investigation and is planning on bringing an enforcement action.

I would imagine that’s fairly material all the time. Am I wrong?

Michelle Leder: You would think, but I’ve seen companies wait instead of like, instead of putting out an 8k that they’ve received a Wells notice, they’ll say that they, uh, they’ll wait until the queue to disclose that. And, of course the Q is all focused on the earnings. So it’s like, buried in there somewhere, usually in their legal disclosure or maybe a risk factor,

Other tricky things that companies will do, all of a sudden, I’ve seen this over and over again, like instead of a subpoena. They’ll say subpoenas, they’ll suddenly make something plural. They won’t put out a press release and say, oh, hey, by the way, we got another subpoena. And companies play these kind of tricks. I mean, they do subtle changes andit’s really up to you as the investor to catch ’em.

Barry Ritholtz:  So what are some of the more common tricks you see that management uses to technically comply with the law and disclose material bad news to investors while at the same time trying to minimize attention to that?

Michelle Leder: Probably the number one thing, um, I see is like companies waiting until late on a Friday or the Wednesday before Thanksgiving with some reason they can choose when they wanna disclose. The rule is actually you have to disclose within four business days.

But of course with holidays and, and other things that can often be, stretched, it’s not as if like, the CFO suddenly resigns and you’ve gotta disclose at that minute. I’ve seen companies wait four days to disclose that, and that’s following the letter of the law.

Now, I would think that if the CFO suddenly resigns from the company as an investor, you wanna know about that right away.

Barry Ritholtz: So the Friday night data dump. After four o’clock, but before the SEC closes at 5:30 is legal, but sounds a little sketchy. How often do you find these sorts of things are disclosing information that ultimately affects the stock’s price?

Michelle Leder: I would say, pretty often, although it’s not an instantaneous thing, um, a lot of what I do is I see an early warning sign. here I’m out in LA and I often think about it as going to the dermatologist and saying, “Hey, I see this mole on my upper arm. Is that cancer? Or do I not have to worry about it?” that’s the type of thing.

It’s an early warning sign that there could be a potential problem. Rarely I would say, do you find like a, what I would call, like what someone might call a smoking gun. It’s not like, like, oh, the CEO embezzled, $500 million, whatever, and we’re filing for bankruptcyMonday morning type of thing.

Barry Ritholtz:  Tell us about the non-disclosure. Disclosure. I love that phrase.

Michelle Leder: Companies know that they have to disclose stuff, and what they often do is they’ll give you the bare minimum of facts, and that’s what they do.

They might say, like, for example, director Alan Smith resigned on a Friday. But they don’t tell you that, oh, maybe he was a member of the audit committee, or maybe he was the former CEO of the company, or maybe he was chairman of the audit committee, or any number of other information and that requires you to go to another filing the proxy statement really to figure out was he a long time director?

Had he only served on the board for three months? All of these things are, information that companies have, but they’re not providing it to their investors. So that’s like, that’s what I would call non-disclosure disclosure. It’s like they’re giving you the bare minimum, but not giving you anything more.

Barry Ritholtz:  Let’s talk about some metadata, red flags. A phrase I’ve picked up from you. I’ve read discussions about repeated amendments of, of various filings or reports that are consistently late. How much of this is just, “Hey, the world is complex and sometimes these things don’t happen on time,” and how much of this is Potentially predictive of real problems at the company?

Michelle Leder: I would say anytime a company can’t get its 10 K or 10 Q in on time, that’s a potential problem. If that happens repeatedly, that’s pattern recognition, right? Like if it goes on for a quarter for, several quarters, or longer that’s a potential problem, right? Companies know, for the most part, they have to get their queues in 40 days after the close of the quarter. And so, if they don’t, those companies that don’t get their filings, they’re 10 queues in on time. If they’re on a September quarter, that’s an indication of a potential issue.

If it’s the third time they haven’t been able to get their 10 Q in on time? And of course there’s exceptions, maybe the company’s going through a big merger, right? Like, when you saw like. For example, like the Albertsons-Kroger thing, a couple years ago, there was like problems there because they were trying to merge the company and there was all this regulatory stuff

If you can easily explain a late filing. I wouldn’t say that every single time a late filing is a problem, but I would say more often than not, it is.

Barry Ritholtz: Your website is called Footnoted. Tell us an example of what looked like a minor footnote in a company filing, or disclosure that. You spotted that later turned out to be a really big story.

Michelle Leder: There’s a couple of examples. One is like, Zoetis, the major animal pharmaceutical company. I started looking into them earlier, well late last year, I would say the, to toward, toward the tail end of 2024. And I put out some research to my clients, back in February of this year.

At the time, they were underplaying their, the dangers associated with one of their so-called blockbuster drugs.

Barry Ritholtz:  If I recall, their drug was causing seizures and deaths on in dogs that had no previous, history of that. There, there literally should not have been released to the veterinary community.

Give us another example that, that. A footnote turned out to be a big story.

Michelle Leder: Back in in 2022, Nicola had like a, uh, what I would call a seemingly minor disclosure. It was about a sudden resignation, by an executive, not the CEO or CFO, just another, like another.

Person who was a “named executive” – that’s a formal term, which is usually the five top executives of the company. Suddenly, and it seemed kind of unimportant, but then it turned out to be an early sign of like basically rats abandoning the ship. And of course we all know Nicolo wound up filing for bankruptcy.

And so it’s kind of like following those breadcrumbs and trying to figure out, figure out what’s really going on at the company. What are they disclosing? What are they trying to tell investors? How can I, try to figure out what’s going on.

Barry Ritholtz: How do you separate what’s really a material red flag and and something that might actually be tradable to just a normal CYA language? That’s in every legal document a corporation produces.

Michelle Leder: I think that’s a great question. And quite frankly, it’s kind of tricky, right? Like it’s, it’s, there is a lot of CYA language in the filings and, um, it can be problematic.

I’d like to think that. after 20 years of reading, SEC filings pretty intensively, that I’m pretty good. My BS meter is pretty well defined and I can kind of tell when something is CYA versus something is, more serious. Of course there is a lot of that language. the filings are ultimately written by lawyers. Now, maybe they’re written by lawyers. I’ve seen a lot more these days. Maybe they’re written by, chat GPT or whatever AI, whatever AI platform they wanna use to write these filings. But ultimately it’s the lawyers that are signing up and lawyers are obviously, tend to be risk averse

Barry Ritholtz: Given the ubiquity of AI these days. How significant is AI in things like corporate filings and how do you use AI to kind of figure out what’s going on with, with all these different things?

Michelle Leder: Well, I think AI is pretty significant in corporate filings. You’re seeing it, more and more, and I’ve certainly, I think I read a journal story like, two or three weeks ago that talked about filings in quarterly work. Or it’s an even conference call, trans, conference call scripts are being written by AI and being used to kind of train, um, executives on how to answer questions, whereas before it used to be sort of in person and, kind of that thing.

I think like AI is of course, becoming much more common in this type of thing. And then of course there’s the tools that are being used to uncover what’s going on in the filings.

I do use AI. There’s a tool that I been using, um, a lot lately. It’s called Fin Tool. And, it’s, interesting because it’s really AI definitely designed around SEC filings as opposed to a more generic AI like a Chat or like, Claude or, pick your AI tool of choice. This one’s strictly focused on SEC filings and, and financial disclosures. And I find it to be pretty good.

Of course, AI is not perfect and so you have to kind of, figure things out. It’s not gonna get everything. But I think, increasingly it can be a helpful tool in trying to detect patterns.

So, like, for example, if I wanted to know, like, how many CFOs, let’s just say, company X has had in the past 10 years. in the past I would’ve had to dug through different filings, I mean, Bloomberg would of course have that information on the terminal, but, that’s the type of thing that AI can really help you with.

Things like that —  going through and, and putting the pieces together.

Barry Ritholtz: To wrap up, if you’re an active trader or if you buy speculative stocks or. Even if you have questions about the management of some of the companies you own, it might be useful to pay attention to their SEC filings, especially the things they may not want you to see items they’re dumping on a Friday evening.

Or barely meeting the minimum disclosure requirements. There’s a, there’s gold in them. There are hills if  where to look, and if  how to interpret it. I’m Barry Ritholtz. You are listening to Bloomberg’s At the Money.

 

Outro:  “Honesty is such a lonely word, Everyone is so untrue
Honesty is hardly ever heard, And mostly what I need from you”

 

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At The Money: Finding the Hidden Alpha in SEC filings appeared first on The Big Picture.

CBO would benefit from additional data and research that would broaden and deepen the agency’s basis of assessment for modeling the effects of permitting-related legislative proposals and administrative actions.

This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the November 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 367 thousand.

Note: "Heavy trucks - trucks more than 14,000 pounds gross vehicle weight."

Click on graph for larger image.

Heavy truck sales were at 367 thousand SAAR in November, up from 339 thousand in October, and down 25.2% from 491 thousand SAAR in November 2024.
Year-to-date (NSA) sales are down 13.2% in 2025 compared to 2024 through November.
Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession, and sales have collapsed recently.  

Spending Slowdown Hits Apple App Store In Major Markets

Apple App Store spending cooled in November, dragged down by weakening demand across several of Apple's largest global markets, which together account for more than half of all App Store revenue.

Goldman analysts led by Michael Ng published a note Tuesday citing Sensor Tower data showing Apple App Store spending last month rose just 6% YoY, down from 9% in October and half the growth rate seen in July.

Sensor Tower data showed that Games, the App Store's largest category (44% of revenue), drove most of the slowdown, falling 2% YoY after growing 3% the previous month.

"Weakening consumer demand for products and services. Apple's products and services are typically sold to consumers, and any weakness in the macroeconomic environment could reduce demand for Apple products and services," Ng said.

There was no definitive explanation beyond the softer "macroeconomic environment" for the App Store slowdown.

By geography, four of Apple's top five markets - the US, Japan, the UK, and Canada - experienced a broad-based slowdown in App Store spending. This raises near-term downside risk and could weigh on App Store revenue.

However, despite slowing App Store spending growth rates, Ng still expects Apple's F1Q26 Services revenue to meet guidance (14% YoY) because other Service lines - including iCloud+, AppleCare+, Apple Music, Apple Pay, and broader subscriptions - continue to perform well.

Here are the key takeaways from the App Store spending slowdown:

• November 2025 App Store net revenue grew +6% YoY, decelerating from +9% in October. November marks the slowest month of 2025 and sits below the 2022–2024 average November growth rate of +10% YoY.

• By category, the slowdown was primarily driven by Games (-2% YoY vs. +3% YoY in October), which represent ~44% of total revenue. Among the next largest categories: Entertainment (15% of total) accelerated to +5% YoY (from +4%), while Photo & Video (8% of total) decelerated slightly to +16% YoY (from +17%).

• By geography, spending slowed across Apple's largest markets: the US (36% of total) cooled to +3% YoY (from +8%), Japan (10%) fell to -2% (from +4%), while China (20%) improved slightly to -1% (from -2%).

Notice that the App Store spending slowdown has persisted for much of the year.

Whoops.

Not good.

The question of why consumers are cutting back on gaming apps is a big one. It's happening across Apple's major markets, which could point to more financially pressured consumers, smartphone fatigue, or competitive app stores soaking up market share. Whatever the cause, the drop in demand signals Tim Cook will have to take corrective measures heading into 2026.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 13:45

The BEA reported that light vehicle sales were at 15.6 million in November on a seasonally adjusted annual basis (SAAR). This was up 2.0% from the sales rate in October, and down 5.6% from November 2024.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since 2006 from the BEA (blue) through October (red from Omdia).
Vehicle sales were over 17 million SAAR in March and April as consumers rushed to "beat the tariffs".
Then sales were depressed in May and June. 
Sales were boosted in August and September due to the termination of the EV credit at the end of September.

The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Sales in November were slightly above the consensus forecast of 15.4 million SAAR.

"Deckchairs" On The Titanic?

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The conclusion to yesterday’s Global Daily was that we are still in a systemic metacrisis. True, many market metrics don’t show it - but how many deckchairs told the Titanic’s passengers they were heading for the iceberg? Markets have a vital role, as do chairs, but expecting them to reflect the potential enormity of what’s going on could end up with you being in very cold water.

Here are two recent headlines to send a shiver down spines: ‘Fear and loathing come for Bitcoin as big investors ponder selling’ (Australian Financial Review); and, ‘It’s time to sound the alarm on growing fiscal and financial risk’ (Financial Times) as “Rising public debt is one concern - another is how it is being financed.” Of course, things look healthier in other areas.

Let’s continue with central banking. The RBA Governor said rates might have to go back up if inflation does. Who knew? Not the RBA or the markets reassured by its projections. Trump says he’ll nominate the next Fed Chair in early 2026’: it seems Hassett is frontrunner. That opens the door to new Fed purpose as well as personnel. Markets are slow to grasp the full implications.

Russia said talks with the US about a Ukraine peace plan were “constructive”, but “no compromise” had been reached on territorial issues. However, we see serious concerns this ends up in an ugly --and expensive-- deal which weakens Europe. Pressure is also increasing for NATO to spend more, faster: but with whose money? The European Commission is making a late offer to win Belgian backing for its Russian asset loan scheme, which the ECB is refusing to back - critics argue it’s a de facto asset confiscation that could damage Europe’s reputation as well as ensuring there’s no peace deal. It is, in effect, ‘victor’s terms’ when Europe has won nothing.

Worse, in response to Europe’s hardline political rhetoric and slimline actions, Putin warned that he doesn’t want war, but if Europe does, Russia is ready - and will defeat it. That’s as Ukrainian drones attacked their third Russian shadow fleet ship this week and Putin stated he will retaliate against Ukrainian shipping and those countries helping it, i.e., Europeans. There’s little middle ground between those two outcomes, but markets are assuming a geopolitical median.

Meanwhile, Europe bewails it “would have given almost anything for peace, but Beijing had a different calculus” - including siding with China vs. the US (where The Economist says ‘Trumpworld thinks Europe has betrayed the West’ – watch Macron in China for more on that ahead); and India, which the EU wants to build deeper ties with as a counterbalance, just ratified a strategic defence partnership with Russia.

The Honduran election currently has the centrist candidate whom Trump didn’t want to win ahead, promising fireworks(?) We are all waiting to see what happens in Venezuela. US lawmakers say they will force a vote on the War Powers Act if Trump attacks it, but the current -anti-terror designation may be workaround – and Trump just said any country trafficking drugs into US could be attacked. That includes a few famous names.

Trump signed a bill to deepen US-Taiwan ties, as the island’s opposition party blocked government plans to increase defence spending. That’s as tensions between Japan and China over PM Takaichi’s recent comments continue to remain high. Even the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty between the US and Japan is being drawn in --China publicly rejecting it-- with potentially worrying parallels to the historical legalese heard around the Russia-Ukraine issue before February 2022. If peace treaties are no longer valid, borders can only be set by threat of or actual force.

That’s as a new Chinese naval flotilla, including an assault ship, is in the Philippines Sea and may be heading for Australia, the latter armed with dangerously high house prices. If you think markets are pricing for these kind of grey rhino risks --how?!-- ask your trader or broker what their view of the 1951 San Francisco Peace Treaty is. I’m sure it will be enlightening.

In the Middle East, a new Israel – Hezbollah confrontation appears worryingly close. Whether that spreads to Iran remains to be seen: ‘optimists’ suggest it’s a story for 2026. Markets are better at pricing those kind of oil risks and seem relaxed so far.

In geoeconomics, floods in Thailand have paralyzed IT goods trade flows globally; US Treasury Secretary Bessent praised Bank Santander for pulling its credit lines from oil trader Gunvor following US claims that the firm, now with new leadership, was a ‘Kremlin Puppet’; Costco is suing the Trump admin for “full refund” on its tariffs, upping the ante; Macron wants to rebalance trade with China as it floods Europe with imports --how?-- as German firms are doubling down on their investments in China; China’s state media boasted its “dirt cheap” hypersonic missiles could upend global defence markets; and Russia said it’s ready to address India's concerns over their massive bilateral trade deficit – see how trade deals and defense pacts go together?

In the (political!) economy, Michael Dell donated $6.3bn for ‘Trump Accounts’ for children – patriotism, or akin to EM billionaires whose governments ‘encouraged’ them to ‘share the load’? The Trump admin also took a $150M stake in chip startup, a once shocking headline already becoming normalized. Yet overlooked by markets, because it isn’t a number on a Bloomberg screen, China's local government debt has reportedly risen to $18.9tn, implying total public debt to GDP is far above 200% and rising, vs. the US’ ≈100% and rising, with China’s private sector debt also around 200%, as in the US. That underlines *China’s structural* necessity to maintain capital controls and a vast, neo-mercantilist trade surplus. The FT touched on that recently; then it moved on to play with the next shiny bauble rather than nailing down the ensuing logical conclusions as principles for its flow of policy recommendations. But their deckchair has a wonderful rear view.

In (economic!) politics, two former EU political heavyweights, Mogherini and Sannino, are in custody over a fraud probe. The UK is mulling a ban on crypto cash in politics, which will put Reform UK’s Farage in the firing line; the UK’s now-headless Office of Budget Responsibility said it had warned the Treasury over budget ‘misconceptions’ (like a deficit being a surplus); and UK jury trials are to be scrapped for crimes with sentences of less than three years, reversing ancient precedent, to make the trial process 20% faster. In France. ‘Macron denies 'Ministry of Truth' plan in standoff with far right’ (Euractiv). In the US, a new immigration crackdown and perhaps a global travel ban loom. India’s government is demanding the installation of state apps on all smartphones; and ‘China looks to AI and big data to guard against Western values’ (SCMP), as Xi “tells Politburo that new technology should be applied to promote socialist ideology.” How do markets price for all the above – or do none matter(?)

To conclude, even if some deckchairs are collapsing, we can continue to sit comfortably on most of them for now. However, that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be thinking about the direction of travel and what may lie ahead of us. It isn’t an iceberg per se, and there will be both upsides and downsides. Just don’t assume it will be plain sailing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 13:25

Fed Regime-Change: Groupthink May Be Ending

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Starting in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, a profound change to the Fed’s liquidity-providing role in the capital markets was underway.  We can sum up the Fed regime change with a popular quip: The Fed has shifted from lender of last resort to the lender of only resort!

In our articles QE Is Coming and its follow-up, How The Fed Deals Liquidity, we discuss why the Fed has become the primary provider of liquidity since 2008 and the tools it uses to maintain ample liquidity in the markets. While that Fed regime change has been incredibly impactful on the financial markets, there is a growing possibility of another meaningful regime change that could prove equally impactful.

This article, like the two linked above, is dry. Still, investors today must understand that monetary policy has become a primary driver of liquidity, which in turn significantly influences asset prices. Without a clear understanding of what the Fed is doing and how it functions, your investment ideas, no matter how solid, can be flawed.

Groupthink Has Been The Fed Norm

The Fed’s monetary policy-setting group, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six weeks to discuss the economy, financial markets, liquidity, and a host of other factors that help the Fed set monetary policy to meet its inflation and employment objectives.

After two days of data analysis, conversation, and debate, the FOMC’s voting members vote on whether to adjust monetary policy. Most often, the policy changes involve the Fed Funds Rate and or the monthly pace of QE or QT.

The committee is comprised as follows:

• Seven members of the Board of Governors- including the Chairman

• Four rotating regional Fed Presidents

• The President of the New York Fed

While there are debates and many divergent views expressed at the FOMC meetings, the published results always give the impression of agreement. This is evident in the meeting statement, which lists the members who voted for the monetary policy actions and those who dissented. The example below from the October 29, 2025, meeting shows that two of the twelve members dissented or voted against the prescribed policy actions.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Susan M. Collins; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Philip N. Jefferson; Alberto G. Musalem; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against this action were Stephen I. Miran, who preferred to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point at this meeting, and Jeffrey R. Schmid, who preferred no change to the target range for the federal funds rate at this meeting.

Historical Dissents

As we shared above, there were two dissenting votes at the last meeting. On average, since 1936, 5% of members have cast dissenting votes per meeting. Since 2000, the most dissenting votes at a single meeting were three. On average, over the last 25 years, the odds are 50/50 that one member will dissent at each meeting.

The bottom line is that dissents occur with some regularity, but the votes for or against policy action are always a strong consensus. More simply, the Fed has been in a groupthink regime fro the last 100 years!

Consensus At The Fed

In the FOMC minutes, released three weeks after the meeting, we gain a better understanding of the debates that took place. It’s clear from these minutes that there are many divergent opinions. This should not be surprising, as the members come from different regions across the country and have diverse economic views. This has been the case since 1936, when the Fed began sharing the minutes.

While there may be many views on the economy and the right course for monetary policy, the graph above clearly shows that almost all Fed members coalesce around a single policy action. 

Quite often, the Fed Chair steers the FOMC toward presenting a consensus view.

Politics At The Fed

We argue that, despite its supposed independence from the executive branch, the Fed has always been political to some degree. Furthermore, we must assume that every Presidential nomination of a Fed member is primarily based on the nominee’s alignment with the President’s views.

Thus, it’s not shocking that Stephen Miran, Trump’s latest appointee, is arguing for aggressive rate cuts. Furthermore, Trump’s possible appointee to replace Lisa Cook and Chairman Powell when his term ends in May will most likely also hold dovish views.

While there is an infusion of dovish voters to join existing dovish members, there also remains a camp of hawkish voters. It appears that most of the dovish-hawkish standoff is a function of whether members are more concerned about keeping a lid on inflation (hawkish) or about preventing a worsening of the labor market (dovish).

However, we offer that the debate may be becoming political as well. Is the Fed morphing into entities like the Supreme Court or Congress that are politically motivated?

In other words, are some dovish members not as concerned about the labor markets as they appear, and instead pushing for a more accommodative policy to help Trump achieve his economic goals? Conversely, might some hold hawkish opinions, not because they fear inflation, but because they disagree with the President’s policies?

Is Consensus Dead?

If, as we postulate, the Fed is becoming more politically divided, might the Fed Chairman be losing the ability to present a group consensus? Interestingly, the odds of a rate cut at the next Fed meeting have been floating between 25% and 85%. Those odds have been shifting as various Fed members have weighed in on whether they may cut rates at the next meeting. Currently, there is a split between those wanting to cut rates and those dissenting from another cut in December. A few members also appear undecided. If the Chairman is unable to get the members to reach a consensus, it’s quite possible there could be four, five, or even six dissenters at the next meeting.

Our Take On Dissents

Historically, as we noted earlier, the Chairman gets the FOMC to form a strong publicly facing consensus. Doing so gives investors, consumers, and business leaders a false sense of confidence that the Fed is fully aware of what is happening in the economy and that it has the right policy prescription. 

We welcome dissent at the Fed. We welcome change. Groupthink, as managed by one person, the Chair, has led to significant policy errors. While the Fed will still make errors in the future, investors, business leaders, and consumers will at least be better versed in other policy opinions. For instance, a vote with multiple dissenting votes signals that the Fed is not confident in its views or policies. While that may make some uneasy, it’s better to recognize their stance than to believe something that isn’t true. Conversely, in an era of multiple dissenting votes, a complete consensus should lead investors to think the Fed has strong confidence in its views and policies.

Summary

As we said earlier, we welcome a regime change at the Fed. We want 12 autonomous FOMC members deliberating and voting on Fed policy. We don’t like the opinion of one person, the Chairman, dictating the views and policies of the Fed.

A new Fed regime consisting of 12 voting Fed members, voicing their own opinions and casting votes on what they think, not what the Chairman wants, would be a welcome change, albeit it might introduce short-term volatility in the financial markets.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 12:45

Europe Accuses Putin Of Faking Peace Talks With Trump Envoys

After the American delegation sent by President Trump met some 5 hours with President Putin and his team in Moscow Tuesday night, but with no significant progress made (and with some observers declaring it a 'failure'), some European officials are trying to have an 'I told you so' moment.

Ukrainian and European officials on Wednesday have alleged Putin is faking a desire to achieve peace, and is intentionally wasting Washington's time while prolonging the war and intensifying strikes on the battlefield.

For example, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha declared immediately after the Moscow discussions that Putin should "stop wasting the world's time." The Zelensky government, it should be noted, has also been quietly frustrated with the White House for largely sidelining its long-running objection to territorial concessions. But the US plan is truly "new" in that it offers Russia de facto control of land in the Donbass and Crimea.

Getty Images

UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper voiced similar criticism, saying Putin "should end the bluster and the bloodshed and be ready to come to the table and to support a just and lasting peace."

Baltic and northern European states have continued in their rhetoric challenging the Kremlin, with Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna responding, "What we see is that Putin has not changed any course. He's pushing more aggressively on the battlefield." The top diplomat said, "It's pretty obvious that he doesn't want to have any kind of peace."

And Finland's Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said similarly, "So far we haven't seen any concessions from the side of the aggressor, which is Russia, and I think the best confidence-building measure would be to start with a full ceasefire."

While the Kremlin has called the Tuesday Moscow talks "constructive" - it conceded that little actual progress was made toward a deal, given Russia is demanding nothing less than full legal and international recognition of the territories under its control. 

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte meanwhile is calling on allies to ensure Ukraine is in its strongest possible position as negotiations proceed. Of course this involves flooding Kiev with more money and weapons. "The peace talks are ongoing. That's good," Rutte said.

"But at the same time, we have to make sure that whilst they take place and we are not sure when they will end, that Ukraine is in the strongest possible position to keep the fight going, to fight back against the Russians. But also in the strongest possible position when peace talks really get to a point where they sit at the table," he added.

More allegations of feigning interest in a peace process out of Western pundits:

Putin Meets With Witkoff and Kushner for Nearly Five Hours and the two sides did not reach any specific compromises, an aide to President Vladimir V. Putin said, as the United States pushes a plan to end the war in Ukraine.

Let me translate for you what this means. There was… https://t.co/0z7KAlRF5t

— Sir William Browder KCMG (@Billbrowder) December 3, 2025

Meanwhile mutual strikes on energy infrastructure continues to escalate. President Putin has also warned his military is readying to expand strikes on Ukrainian ports, in retaliation for a spate of drone attacks on tankers transporting Russian oil to global markets.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 12:25

DOJ Charges Afghan National Over Online Threats To Build Bomb, Kill Americans

Authored by Arjun Singh via The Epoch Times,

The Department of Justice has indicted an Afghan national residing in Fort Worth, Texas, for allegedly making online threats to construct an explosive and kill U.S. citizens using it.

Mohammad Dawood Alokozay, 30, was arrested by the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force and the Texas Department of Public Safety on Nov. 30. A statement from the Department of Justice indicated that he was charged with “transmitting a threatening communication in interstate commerce,” which violates 18 U.S. Code, Section 875(c), for making threats on social media platforms, specifically TikTok, Facebook, and X.

“We have zero tolerance for violence and threats of violence to kill American citizens and others like those allegedly made by this individual,” said Ryan Raybould, the U.S. Attorney for the Northern District of Texas, whose office is prosecuting the case.

Alokozay on Nov. 23, while speaking in the Dari language, allegedly told two other men during a video stream on social media that he would build a bomb in his vehicle. He also allegedly described in detail bomb making techniques used by the Taliban in Afghanistan, who he described as “dear” to him. During his remarks, Alokozay allegedly stated that he intended to conduct a suicide attack on Americans, and that he was “not afraid of deportation or getting killed.”

The Epoch Times was unable to obtain a copy of Alokozay’s indictment, which is currently under seal in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas. If convicted, Alokozay faces a maximum of five years in prison for the crime.

Alokozay’s immigration status in the United States, and whether the federal government will place him in removal proceedings, has not been publicly disclosed. Currently, Afghanistan is ruled by the Taliban, a designated foreign terrorist organization, to which the United States has not conducted any publicized removal operations.

Normally, in cases where the country of origin of a deportee may present a risk to the deportee’s life, that person may apply for “withholding of removal” under Section 241(b)(3) of the Immigration and Nationality Act, and protections under the Convention Against Torture. These statuses, if granted by an immigration judge, prevent a person from being removed to their home country, though they may be removed to a willing third country.

Since Nov. 26, when one National Guard service member was shot and killed and another critically wounded in Washington, allegedly by Afghan national Rahmanullah Lakanwal, the U.S. government has increased scrutiny of existing Afghan nationals and other citizens of “high-risk” nations who reside within the country.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 12:05

James Boasberg Snubs Senate Hearing On 'Rogue Judges'

Authored by Luis Cornelio via Headline USA,

Two of the federal judges facing impeachment threats refused to attend a Wednesday Senate Judiciary subcommittee hearing on “rogue judges.” 

James Boasberg and Deborah Boardman, district judges in Washington and Maryland, respectively, told the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts that they would not appear over concerns about the separation of powers and judicial ethics. 

Their refusal was delivered through a Nov. 12 letter sent by U.S. Judge Robert Conrad, the director of the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts, to Sen. Ted Cruz, who chairs the subcommittee. 

Conrad claimed that allowing the judges to testify could violate ethics rules and “encroach upon the separation of powers,” according to the Daily Caller. 

He cited judicial rule Canon 3A(6), which forbids judges from testifying about matters they have decided or that may be pending before them. 

“The commentary to this provision explains that the ‘admonition against public comment about the merits of a pending or impending matter continues until the appellate process is complete,’” Conrad added. 

Director of the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts Judge Robert Conrad cited part of the code of conduct stating a judge "should not make public comment on the merits of a matter pending or impending in any court."

— Katelynn Richardson (@katesrichardson) December 2, 2025

Cruz scheduled the hearing to examine possible impeachment proceedings against federal judges accused of overstepping their authority.

Boasberg is one of those judges, Republicans argue. He is facing impeachment threats from Rep. Brandon Gill, R-Texas,  

Gill filed the articles of impeachment accusing Boasberg of abusing his “judicial authority” for approving Biden-era search warrants targeting Republican lawmakers and other conservative organizations part of the Jan. 6 investigation. 

“Judge Boasberg was an accomplice in the egregious Arctic Frost scandal where he equipped the Biden DOJ to spy on Republican senators,” Gill wrote in a statement. 

“His lack of integrity makes him clearly unfit for the gavel.” 

Boardman is also facing impeachment efforts, this time from Rep. Chip Roy, R-Texas, over her lenient eight-year sentence for the convicted would-be assassin of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.  

Boardman cited the attacker’s declared transgender identity to justify sparing him from a harsher penalty. 

“Boardman unequivocally based this weak sentence on the attempted assassin’s ‘gender identity,’ as the attempted assassin expressed that he views himself as a woman,” Roy wrote in a separate statement. “Instead of doing what the Judiciary calls for and sentencing this man to the base 30-year sentence recommended by the Department of Justice, Judge Boardman purposefully allowed this man off easy.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 11:25

WTI Holds Gains As Cushing 'Tank Bottoms' Loom; US Crude Production At Record High

Oil prices are higher this morning after API's report showed crude inventories fell last week, while negotiations to end Russia's war on Ukraine failed to reach an agreement.

Prices have stuck in a narrow range in recent weeks as geopolitical concerns have countered rising supply as OPEC+ returned 2.6-million barrels of production cuts to market amid increasing production outside of the cartel.

But, a lack of progress in U.S.-led negotiations to reach a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia and the Trump Administration's military build up off Venezuela continue to command a risk premium for the commodity.

"Traders weighed prospects for an end to the war in Ukraine while watching for Trump's next moves on Venezuela. Ahead of today's EIA report, the API said US crude stockpiles rose by 2.5 million barrels last week. Overall, Brent and WTI remain confined to tight ranges as ample global supply continues to offset geopolitical risk," Saxo Bank noted.

Will the official data confirm API's draw?

API

• Crude -2.48mm

• Cushing -89k

• Gasoline +3.1mm

• Distillates +2.88mm

DOE

• Crude +574k

• Cushing -457k

• Gasoline +4.518mm - biggest build since May

• Distillates +2.059mm

The official report was delayed but once it hit, it showed a small crude build (as opposed to API's reported draw). Products saw big builds (Gasoline largest weekly add since May) and Cushing stocks fell for the 4th straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Cushing's ongoing draws leave stocks near 'tank bottoms' once again...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production hovers near record highs despite the rapid decline in rig counts...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding gains after the delayed data...

Source: Bloomberg

Geopolitical tensions are keeping the market jittery and adding a risk premium to prices, partly countering concerns about a surplus. That includes US rhetoric against Venezuela, with President Donald Trump suggesting the Pentagon will soon start targeting drug cartels with strikes on land.

Senate hawks calling for a complete Venezuelan overthrow further fuel oil’s upside risk. Eschewing the term “regime change”, Rick Scott (R–Fla.) told ZeroHedge that he’d like to Venezuelan President Maduro in handcuffs.

”I’d like [Maduro] to be arrested for selling drugs into this country,” Scott said today. “That’s not ‘regime change’. He is not the president of Venezuela… there was an election. He lost the election.”

On the Russian front, Goldman sees little change in markets following the peace talks.

“The Brent crude price remained roughly unchanged in the low $60s over the last week as Russia-Ukraine peace talks continue,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts including Yulia Grigsby said.

“Oil markets and prediction markets do not appear to price a large probability of a near-term peace agreement and removal of the sanctions on Russia oil.”

Grigsby also noted that overall levels of Russian oil exports have remained robust, even after US penalties on Lukoil and Rosneft, as sales rapidly pivoted to non-sanctioned producers.

On the bright side, the broadly weaker trend on crude oil prices has dragged gas (pump) prices down to their lowest since May 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

While it's not exactly 'drill, baby, drill', it's certainly what Trump wanted (the question is, will the lower price push shale producers to cut production... and round and round we go).

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 11:18

Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Soft Year-over-year

Brief excerpt:

Another monthly update on rents.

Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure.

More recently, immigration policy has become a negative for rentals.

Apartment List: Asking Rent Growth -1.1% Year-over-year ...

The national median rent fell 1.0% in November, and now stands at $1,367. This was the fourth consecutive month-over-month decline, as we’re now in the midst of the rental market’s off-season. It’s likely that we will close out the year with an additional modest rent decline in December.

Realtor.com: 27th Consecutive Month with Year-over-year Decline in Rents

October 2025 marks the 27th straight month of year-over-year rent decline for 0-2 bedroom properties since trend data began in 2020. Asking rents dipped by $29, or -1.7%, year over year.

There is much more in the article.

Trump Confirms Biden's Autopen Documents, Orders, & Pardons Are Void

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he has nullified all documents, proclamations, executive orders, memorandums, and contracts signed by autopen during President Joe Biden’s term.

“Any and all Documents, Proclamations, Executive Orders, Memorandums, or Contracts, signed by Order of the now infamous and unauthorized ‘AUTOPEN,’ within the Administration of Joseph R. Biden Jr., are hereby null, void, and of no further force or effect,” Trump wrote in a social media post.

“Anyone receiving ‘Pardons,’ ‘Commutations,’ or any other Legal Document so signed, please be advised that said Document has been fully and completely terminated, and is of no Legal effect. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”

The declaration follows Trump’s Nov. 28 announcement that he was revoking all executive orders signed by autopen during the Biden administration.

“The Autopen is not allowed to be used if approval is not specifically given by the President of the United States,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump alleged the documents were signed illegally.

“The Radical Left Lunatics circling Biden around the beautiful Resolute Desk in the Oval Office took the Presidency away from him,” Trump posted. “Joe Biden was not involved in the Autopen process and, if he says he was, he will be brought up on charges of perjury.”

The autopen, which uses a real pen and ink to mechanically replicate a president’s signature, can be used to sign official documents, but the president must direct the signing of each document or bill, according to the Office of Legal Counsel.

According to some legal scholars, U.S. presidents may revoke previously issued executive orders. However, revoking pardons may be unconstitutional and could face roadblocks, experts told the Epoch Times.

The U.S. House Committee on Oversight, led by Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) published a report in October detailing an investigation into the Biden administration’s use of autopen signatures.

The federal probe found senior White House officials “abused the autopen and a lax chain-of-command policy to effect executive actions” and failed to provide documentation to prove the documents were authorized.

The committee stated it found evidence that Biden’s White House staff concealed his diminishing mental and physical condition intentionally.

“The Committee has found that there was, in fact, a cover-up of the president’s cognitive decline and that there is no record demonstrating President Biden himself made all of the executive decisions that were attributed to him,” the committee wrote in the report. “The authority to grant pardons is not provided to the president’s inner circle.”

Several senior advisors and staff refused to provide testimony during the investigation for fear of incriminating themselves.

A photo of former President Biden's autopen signature (C) on the new White House Presidential Wall of Fame on Sept. 26, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

In a Truth Social post, Trump claimed 92 percent of documents signed during Biden’s presidency were signed by autopen.

During his presidency, Biden issued 4,245 acts of clemency—more than any other president—and 162 executive orders.

Biden’s acts of clemency consisted of 80 pardons and 4,165 commutations. While the commutation total topped all other presidents since McKinley, who left office in 1901, the 80 pardons were topped by several other presidents including Trump in his first term (144), President Barack Obama (212), and President George W. Bush (189).

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 10:15

'Sustained Resilience': US Services Surveys Mixed In November

Following the disappointment on the Manufacturing PMI side (both S&P Global and ISM seeing their surveys decline in November), US Services surveys were more mixed in the face of 'strong' hard data (that has been largely absent due to the shutdown).

• S&P Global US Services PMI dropped from 54.8 to 54.1 in November (lowest since June and notably worse than the flash print of 55.0)

• ISM US Services PMI rose from 52.4 to 52.6, solidly better than the 52.0 expected.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood was also mixed (completely opposite) news with ISM seeing Prices Paid dropping bigly (S&P Global seeing it rise), ISM seeing new orders decline (S&P Global seeing improvement) and ISM seeing employment still contracting (S&P Global sees 'solid increase' in employment)...

The S&P Global US Composite PMI posted 54.2 in November. That was little changed overall on October’s 54.6 and consistent with trend growth of the US private sector economy.

Similar rates of expansion were recorded across the manufacturing and service sectors. Latest data showed the strongest growth in new work for three months, which helped support a solid increase in employment. Meanwhile, input price inflation accelerated to a four-month high whilst output charges also rose at a stronger pace.

“The US service sector has reported another strong expansion in November, with demand for services rising at the fastest rate seen so far this year," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Together with a robust increase in output reported by the manufacturing sector, the survey indicates that the economy is so far expanding at a 2.5% annualized GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter."

Supportive financial conditions, including lower interest rates and the equity market gains seen this year, are helping drive the sustained resilience of the economy, with Williamson noting a further surge in financial services activity reported in November.

Tariff fears remain top of mind...

“Consumer and business services are also continuing to expand, but report pressure on customer demand from affordability issues in particular. Worryingly, prices charged for services rose at an increased rate in November as firms sought to pass on higher costs, in turn often linked to tariffs.

“The concern is that rising prices could deter further rate cuts, in turn dampening the financial services expansion which has been doing much of the heavy lifting in terms of the sustained economic expansion in recent months.

But there is some optimism...

“More encouragingly, November saw an upturn in business expectations of growth over the year ahead compared to October, though this in part merely reflected some relief at the ending of the government shutdown, and some of this improved sentiment appears to have already faded towards the end of November.”

Overall, it's choose your own adventure...

...with something for both the doves (weakening survey headline data) and the hawks (economy still expanding and tariff-driven inflation fears high).

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 10:07

(Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 52.6%, up from 52.4% the previous month. The employment index increased to 48.9%, up from 48.2%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 52.6% November 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report

Economic activity in the services sector continued to expand in November, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest ISM® Services PMI® Report. The Services PMI® registered at 52.6 percent and is in expansion territory for the ninth time in 2025.

The report was issued today by Steve Miller, CPSM, CSCP, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: “In November, the Services PMI® registered a reading of 52.6 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the October figure of 52.4 percent. The Business Activity Index continued in expansion territory in November, registering 54.5 percent, 0.2 percentage point higher than the reading of 54.3 percent recorded in October. The New Orders Index also remained in expansion in November, with a reading of 52.9 percent, 3.3 percentage points below October’s figure of 56.2 percent but 0.9 percentage point above its 12-month average of 51.7 percent. The Employment Index contracted for the sixth month in a row with a reading of 48.9 percent, a 0.7-percentage point improvement from the 48.2 percent recorded in October — the fourth consecutive monthly increase since a reading of 46.4 percent in July.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 54.1 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 50.8 percent recorded in October and 2.2 percentage points above its 12-month average of 51.9 percent. This is the 12th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory, indicating slower supplier delivery performance. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® PMI® Reports index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.)

“The Prices Index registered 65.4 percent in November, its lowest reading since hitting 65.1 percent in April 2025. The November figure was a 4.6-percentage point drop from October’s reading of 70 percent. The index has exceeded 60 percent for 12 straight months.
emphasis added

Employment was in contraction for the 6th consecutive month, and prices paid remained high.

Maduro Could Be Exiled To Qatar As Trump Warns Land Strikes On Venezuela Coming "Very Soon"

President Trump reportedly issued Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro a deadline of last Friday to of his own volition step down as president and accomplish a peaceful transition of power, or else face possible direct military action.

The New York Post is freshly reporting that the White House has offered that Maduro could be exiled to Qatar, where he would live out his days in luxury in one of the world's wealthiest countries.

"A senior Trump administration source said Secretary of State Marco Rubio has floated allowing Maduro, 63, to relocate to Qatar as the gas-rich emirate helps mediate the conflict," NY Post writes Wednesday. "Three current and two former administration officials described the scenario as plausible."

Qatar, image via Remote Lands

A source close to the administration described that "Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE love to do stuff like this. It helps build chits with the US." The person further said, "All three compete against each other — in the region and for the ultimate affection of the US."

So far Maduro has resisted Trump's call to immediately step down, and the last Friday deadline came and went. If it were to suddenly happen - and by looks of it Maduro doesn't seem prepared to go anywhere - this scenario would quickly lead to lower oil prices as Washington's crude embargo would be dropped and US firms move to pump oil out of the Latin American country, which has the world's largest proven oil reserves.

As for the supposed exile to Qatar plan, there's been no immediately forthcoming confirmation from the White House that this is accurate, but Maduro would have to go somewhere after all.

The large military presence in the southern Caribbean has persisted for months at this point, and the clock is ticking, especially given President Trump's Tuesday remarks of land attacks possibly beginning "very soon". He said as follows:

President Trump said Tuesday his administration could attack accused drug traffickers who traverse Latin America by land "very soon," which would mark an escalation in the U.S. military's campaign of lethal strikes on alleged drug boats. 

"We're going to start doing those strikes on land, too," Mr. Trump told reporters during a Cabinet meeting when asked about the administration's strikes at sea. "You know, the land is much easier ... And we know the routes they take. We know everything about them. We know where they live. We know where the bad ones live. And we're going to start that very soon, too."

It's unknown whether such strikes would just be limited to known cartel and trafficking locations and routes, or whether government buildings or military bases could be hit.

What’s quite surprising for me is the silence of Brazil, Qatar, and Turkey, the countries said to have brokered the Trump–Maduro call. They usually love to publicize their peace efforts. But when it comes to Venezuela, they’re barely saying a word. Why are they so silent? pic.twitter.com/hv32yIDXT2

— Imdat Oner (@imdat_oner) December 2, 2025

The administration has already effectively labeled the whole government a 'narco-terror' organization, with its dubious and sweeping "Cartel of the Suns" recent terror designation. "Based in Venezuela, the Cartel de los Soles is headed by Nicolás Maduro and other high-ranking individuals of the illegitimate Maduro regime who have corrupted Venezuela’s military, intelligence, legislature, and judiciary," the mid-November official designation indicated. "Neither Maduro nor his cronies represent Venezuela’s legitimate government."

Could American military action soon commence in Venezuela? Will Maduro find himself in a luxury high-rise in Qatar by month's end?

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 09:35

US Industrial Production Sees Biggest Annual Gain In 3 Years Despite Slowing Capacity Utilization

First things first, this is data for September. But we would given this morning's Industrial Production and Manufacturing Output data a 'meh' ranking.

Industrial Production rose just 0.1% MoM (as expected) up from the downwardly revised 0.3% MoM decline in August. On a YoY basis, production rose 1.62% - its best since Nov 2022...

US Manufacturing output was unchanged in September (slowing from the 0.1% MoM rise in August), but, like IP, that supported a 1.5% YoY rise in output, its highest level since April 2022...

But the big headline of this (admittedly lagged) report is the weakness in Capacity Utilization at just 75.9% in September (well below the 77.4% print for August, which was revised down to 75.9%, and a big miss versus the 77.2% exp)

Source: Bloomberg

Just as we have seen with the employment data, it appears the US Manufacturing economy has flatlined for much of Q3. Certainly supportive of a cut next week and trend toward more cuts (which are not priced in for now).

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/03/2025 - 09:27