Layan Odeh of Bloomberg reports Ontario Teachers’ reroutes some cash into public markets: 

Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan chief executive Jo Taylor said that the pension is “warehousing” capital in public markets after selling several assets within its private market portfolio last year.

The pension plan “sold some private equity assets” and “our plan is to reinvest that capital,” Taylor said in an interview with Bloomberg TV in Davos. “We are really just warehousing it until we know where we want to redeploy it.”

Ontario Teachers’ struck deals to sell some assets last year, including its stakes in airports in Copenhagen and Brussels, as well as three airports in the United Kingdom. The pension plan also agreed to sell its majority stake in India’s Sahyadri Hospitals Group.

The pension plan, which manages $269.6 billion of assets, reduced its exposure to the United States dollar and treasuries in the first quarter of last year, Taylor said, citing the “risk of a deflationary dollar.”

But as the pension plan shifted to “benign” but liquid markets, OTPP’s equity weighting stayed tilted toward the U.S.

“The U.S. is still 30 per cent, 35 per cent of our portfolio,” Taylor said. “It will be an important territory for further capital.”

In recent days, some European pension plans said that they’re cutting their exposure to the U.S. dollar amid concerns that the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump have created credit risks too big to ignore.

AkademikerPension, a Danish pension fund that manages around US$25 billion of savings, said it’s planning to exit U.S. Treasuries by the end of the month. Swedish pension fund Alecta said it already sold most of its U.S. Treasuries since early last year, citing the unpredictability of U.S. policy, budget deficits and national debt. 

Alright, I had a chance to listen to Jo Taylor's interviews at Davos last week, one with Bloomberg and one with CNBC.

Jo is always on point and very careful when he speaks, here are my quick bullet points but take the time to watch both interviews below.

• They cut exposure to the US dollar and Treasuries in Q1 2025 because they were a bit overexposed but he added: "The US is always roughly 30% to 35% of their portfolio -- it's 30% at the moment -- and it will always be an important territory fro us for further capital."
• They cut their dollar and treasury exposure in Q1 2025 because they saw deflationary risk to the dollar and kept it at that level going into 2026.
• They had important realizations last year in private markets particularly when they sold five airports in Europe and parked the money in "benign, liquid public markets" mostly in the US. 
• Nonetheless, private markets is a "hugely successful part of their business" and a "core activity" and Jo specified they are "not asset collectors", they acquire companies, make them more successful and if someone comes along to buy them and give them a good offer, then they will tend to "monetize them."
• So, in 2025, their biggest realizations were in airports and some private equity assets but their plan is to reinvest that capital. "Putting that money into liquid form in public liquid markets is we're really just warehousing it till we know where we want to redeploy it given our all-weather portfolio."
• On AI, Jo said they're not sure "the larger businesses will automatically win over time" so they're being careful and selective on where they invest. More importantly, they're looking at how AI impacts their existing portfolio of companies they own. "How do we enable them so they use AI to their advantage?" and "how we use AI to make better investment choices given the data we have?" 
• He said they own stakes in Anthropic and SpaceX and the latter has been a "fabulous investment" and said the company was "executing" on all levels and hitting its mark.
• Interestingly, toward the end of the Bloomberg interview, he said IPOs are not always the best solution because disclosed of a listed company is onerous and sometimes it makes sense to stay private for longer. 
• On the CNBC interview, Jo hones in on how Teachers' plans for the long term since their liabilities go out 50-60 years but also want to capitalize on short-term volatility where they see opportunities.  "When markets get really choppy, you want to be brave enough to look for good opportunities particularly on the investment side."
• He said last year they were  more "sellers of assets" and this year they're trying to correct that as "you don't want too much vintage year risk in what could turn out to be a wonderful year in investing." He said from his own experience, when markets are volatile, it's a great time to buy.\
• He said there has already been an equity correction is private equity and the challenge is in a world of tariffs how do you look at a business to try to understand its future growth.  So a business can look good when you buy it but will that be maintained and also if it's "a business that does a lot of M&A after you (acquire), then that looks more uncertain."
• He stressed you need to "know what you own" and they do direct investing as well as work with partners and do their own due diligence.
• They will be selling and buying assets again this year, and sold an oil and gas business earlier this year.
• He said they've done well investing in technology, financial services and industrials but as they look forward they're asking the question "will everyone win on AI?' and "which are the areas where you can see good growth and technology has the upper hand". He said one area where they are uncertain is in healthcare where "AI is speeding up some of the discovery and value creation."
• Jo said they have a good exposure to AI and "Teachers' Venture Growth made a very good return last year of over 30%." 
• They want to examine where AI disrupts their portfolio and where it can help them add value.

Alright, take the time to watch both interviews, Jo Taylor is always on point and very precise with is comments.]

Below, Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan President & CEO Jo Taylor says the pension has cut exposure to US Dollar and Treasuries. He speaks to BTV's Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz and Annmarie Hordern on the sidelines of the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

Also, Jo Taylor, CEO and president of the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP), tells CNBC’s Dan Murphy in Davos that he’s closely watching geopolitical spillovers in financial markets. While volatility should be seen as a buying opportunity, Taylor emphasizes investors must “know what you own” during uncertain times.

As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on the Judiciary on January 15, 2026

As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Veterans’ Affairs on July 30, 2025

As ordered reported by the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on January 21, 2026

Abandon Big Tech: Ethereum Founder Buterin Calls 2026 The Year To Reclaim Self-Sovereign Computing

Authored by Christina Comben via CoinTelegraph.com,

Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin declared 2026 to be the “year we take back lost ground in computing self-sovereignty,” starting with his own devices. 

In a Friday post on X, he laid out the software changes he has made to reduce reliance on data-hungry, centralized platforms.

The “two major changes” to the software he used in 2025 were switching “almost fully” to Fileverse, an open-source, decentralized document platform — a kind of privacy-preserving Google Docs — and switching “decisively” to Signal as his primary messaging app.

Signal uses end-to-end encryption by default for all one-to-one and group chats, and stores minimal metadata, meaning only limited information, such as when an account was created or the last date it connected to the service.

Telegram, in contrast, only offers end-to-end encryption in optional “secret chats” and otherwise keeps messages and metadata on its own servers, a model that has drawn scrutiny as law enforcement data requests have increased in countries like France.

Becoming more self-sovereign. Source: Vitalik Buterin

Local AI and self-hosted tools

In 2026, Buterin has moved from Google Maps to OpenStreetMap via OrganicMaps and from Gmail to Proton Mail, while prioritizing decentralized social media.

Buterin also discussed his experiments with locally hosting large language models, arguing that sending all data to third-party services is “unnecessary” when users can increasingly run artificial intelligence tools on their own hardware. 

He said better user interfaces, integrations and efficiency are still needed to make local models a seamless default, but added that there has already been “huge progress” compared with a year ago. 

Privacy advocates see broader shift

His post echoes points made by privacy advocate and NBTV founder Naomi Brockwell, who described running models locally as the most private way to use AI without sending prompts or documents to external servers.

How to use AI privately. Source: Naomi Brockwell

Brockwell has spent years teaching privacy-enhancing behavior to mainstream audiences, arguing that privacy is about autonomy rather than secrecy and encouraging the use of tools like Bitcoin, encrypted messengers and self-hosted services to reduce government and corporate surveillance power.

Buterin’s post also comes amid renewed debate over how much access governments and platforms should have to users’ private communications and metadata.

The European Union’s controversial Chat Control proposal, for example, originally included pre‑encryption scanning of messages to detect abusive material, and prompted warnings from civil liberties groups and technologists that client‑side scanning could undermine trust in encrypted apps.

Progressively swapping out everyday apps for encrypted, open-source and local alternatives is, according to Buterin and other privacy advocates, one way for users to start reclaiming control over their data flows.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 15:25

As ordered reported by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on December 2, 2025

As ordered reported by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on December 2, 2025

As ordered reported by the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform on May 21, 2025

As ordered reported by the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on January 21, 2026

Mobocracy: Democratic Politicians Compete In Race To The Bottom Over ICE Shooting

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

This year, there has been a race to the bottom as Democratic politicians fuel the rage in our streets against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers.

That continued this last week when Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz again rushed to judgment after a shooting, adding that the public should not treat Border Patrol or ICE officers as real “law enforcement” officers.

However, rock bottom was finally reached by Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes (D), who not only said that she does not consider ICE officers to be “real law enforcement,” but raised the possibility of citizens shooting them under state law.

First, the obvious.  

Mayes said, “I put [“officers”] in air quotes because I don’t think they are real law enforcement.” These are real law enforcement officers under federal law, enforcing federal law. Period. The effort by Walz, Mayes, and others to question their status or treat them as impostors is clearly designed to inflame citizens and encourage greater confrontations.

It is a dangerous form of demagoguery. It is sending citizens into harm’s way, encouraging them to impede federal operations involving the arrest of criminal suspects.

Mayes’s comments could justify many putting “attorney general” in air quotes since she is not only misleading citizens about the status of these officers but also enabling the very rage that is causing the injury and death of individuals.

Again, repeating Walz’s talking points, she referred to these officers as “poorly trained.” She obviously has no idea about the training of these officers. The officer involved in the Alex Pretti shooting was an experienced officer with the Border Patrol. The officer involved in the prior Renée Good shooting was also an experienced officer.

While mischaracterizing the officers, figures like Walz are sending demonstrably “untrained” citizens into highly dangerous situations. Walz specifically called out citizens into the streets to record these operations, which is precisely what Pretti was trying to do before his fatal confrontation with officers.

Mayes, however, was not looking for a tie in that race to the bottom. She told citizens that Arizona’s “Stand Your Ground” law might be cited as grounds for the use of lethal force against officers.  She declared:

“You have these masked, federal officers with very little identification — sometimes no identification — wearing plain clothes and masks and we have a ‘Stand Your Ground’ law that says if you reasonably believe your life is in danger and you’re in your house or in your car or on your property, that you can defend yourself with lethal force.”

She later added, “It’s a fact that we have a ‘Stand Your Ground’ law and, in other states, un-uniformed, masked people who can’t be identified as police officers.”

It was a reckless statement of the law.

These laws only protect “reasonable” uses of self-defense. However, they have an express exemption for using force “to resist an arrest that the person knows or should know is being made by a peace officer or by a person acting in a peace officer’s presence and at his direction, whether the arrest is lawful or unlawful, unless the physical force used by the peace officer exceeds that allowed by law.”

It is not uncommon for law enforcement to use officers in plain clothes to make initial arrests or contacts with suspects who might flee or resist.

Mayes’s comments could encourage an already enraged and irrational segment of our population to use lethal force under the false pretense of standing their ground.

Attacks on these officers have increased exponentially with the violent rhetoric of these politicians. Just last week, a rioter bit off the finger of an officer.

Mayes also vowed to prosecute any ICE agent who violates state laws in these operations. She is also mimicking Walz in spreading legal disinformation. While federal officers do not have absolute immunity in all cases, it is extremely unlikely that state officials could successfully prosecute such cases without facing a transfer to federal court and likely dismissal.

Walz made the same misleading claim in saying that Minnesota would investigate the shooting and that the federal government would not be allowed to conduct the investigation. He has no authority to dictate who or how the shooting will be investigated.

While the state can conduct its own investigation, the federal government will investigate a shooting by a federal officer. Walz further pandered to the mob by raising the debunked “bait boy” story and telling citizens that ICE was “shooting them in the face when they come out of donut shops.”

Rage is hard to maintain for months and the Pretti shooting, as described by one Democratic operative according to Fox’s Chad Pergram, is a “new wild card” in the politics on the Hill over funding.

There remain legitimate questions about this shooting. The videotapes do not show, as suggested in early accounts from the federal government, that Pretti approached the officers brandishing a weapon.

Pretti does not obey the commands of the officers in returning to the middle of the road during their operation. However, he did not appear threatening until after the officer pushed him to the side of the road. At one point, he appears to shove the officer as he tries to assist a woman who was pushed to the ground.

What happens next is hard to determine. There is a video that suggests that an officer may have removed his weapon from its holster just before another officer yells “gun.” It is hard to see Pretti’s hands and we do not know what happened in that split second. We may get a better idea as new videotapes emerge.

Law enforcement officers do not expect blind deference on shootings. However, they have a right to expect a fair chance for an investigation to hear their side of a shooting — not a governor or a mayor rushing before cameras to effectively accuse them of murder.

At this point, it may not matter. Only the mob matters.  Minneapolis Brian O’Hara explained: “even if there is an investigation that ultimately proves that at the time of the shooting it was legally justified, I don’t think that even matters at this point, because there just- there is so much outrage and concern around what is happening in the city.”

Walz has demonstrated politics of the lowest kind, stoking anger as citizens and officers alike are injured. Walz is pledging to go to court to stop further operations—a lawsuit that would be another frivolous filing. Previously, the state, including Attorney General Keith Ellison, filed to prevent the federal government from increasing forces to investigate fraud and immigration violations.

Walz, Mayes, and others are following a long line of demagogues who sought to use social unrest to advance their political careers. For Walz, sending people into the streets has the benefit of not having them at home watching and reading about the growing fraud scandal in his state.

It is not a defense of democracy, but mobocracy in Minnesota.

Jonathan Turley is a law professor and the author of the forthcoming “Rage and the Republic: The Unfinished Story of the American Revolution,” which will be released on Feb. 3 as part of the celebration of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 14:45

Saudi Aramco Dismisses Oil Glut Narrative As "Seriously Exaggerated"

Authored by Tsvetana Paraskova via OilPrice.com,

Forecasts of a massive oil glut are seriously exaggerated as demand keeps rising and global stocks are below the five-year average, according to Saudi Aramco’s chief executive officer, Amin Nasser. 

“Oil glut predictions are seriously exaggerated,” Nasser said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, last week as carried by Reuters.

Global oil stocks are low, while the amassed barrels in floating storage on tankers are mostly sanctioned supplies, the CEO of the world’s biggest oil firm and top crude exporter said. 

Moreover, spare capacity has dwindled over the past year, also limiting potential efforts to boost output in case of major supply disruptions, according to Nasser. 

“It (spare capacity) is ‌at 2.5% and we need a minimum of 3%. If OPEC+ further unwinds cuts, spare capacity will ‌fall even further and we will need to watch this very carefully,” Aramco’s top executive said. 

The market is oversupplied, analysts say, as reflected in only brief spikes in oil prices in recent weeks driven the geopolitical developments. 

Most investment banks and the EIA forecast that average oil prices will be below $60 per barrel in 2026 due to an emerging and persistent market oversupply, especially during the first half of the year.  

But OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, insists that the market would be balanced as demand growth is robust and will remain such in 2027, too. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA) this week raised its oil demand growth estimate and expects growth at 930,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, up by 70,000 bpd from last month’s assessment. 

The upgrade reflects a recovery in feedstock demand in the petrochemicals industry, on top of expectations of normalized economic conditions after the unpredictable and chaotic tariff policy of the Trump Administration last year.

But the market continues to be oversupplied, the Paris-based agency noted. 

“Indeed, benchmark crude oil prices remain $16/bbl lower than a year ago, reflecting the large global supply surplus that built up over the past 12 months, in line with our forecasts,” the IEA said.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 14:05

Egon von Greyerz On The Hidden Crisis Behind Silver's Price Surge

In the following clip, Egon von Greyerz explains why the precious metals market has entered a fundamentally new and unprecedented phase.

One which is driven not by speculation or momentum trading, but by deep structural imbalances between physical supply and an unprecedented physical demand.

Persistent supply deficits in silver over several consecutive years, combined with rapidly rising industrial demand from sectors such as solar energy, electric vehicles, electronics and defense, have created a physical shortage in the last 5 years that paper markets can no longer mask.

At the same time, the volume of outstanding paper contracts in London and New York now vastly exceeds the amount of physical silver available for delivery.

Von Greyerz warns that this imbalance marks a critical turning point, as silver transitions away from a manipulated paper-based system into a genuinely physical market, where price is ultimately set by scarcity, not leverage. 

Watch Egon explain why manipulation fails when physical precious metals run out...

Here are some key excerpts from the full transcript: (emphasis ours)

...this is a fundamental change. Some viewers might remember the late 1970s when silver quickly climbed from a few dollars up to $50. This was primarily speculation by the Hunt Brothers.

[01:44.7] And of course, the market could quickly sell enough paper silver to crash the price. And it didn't stay long at $50. This time, any selling that is attempted by bullion banks fails ,and we've seen many times being sold in the evening and, within a few hours, it's back up again.

[02:06.0] And this has happened last week again. Friday evening was sold off and then quickly went up to $90. I think we're quickly going to see $100 and more already in the Far East and in Australia, like the Perth Mint, selling now silver at over $100.

[02:25.0] So the price in London and in New York will have to follow. So what does that mean for the ordinary investors? Well, it clearly means that silver is just starting the move, and we are going to see, as I have stressed many times, we are going to see multiples of the current price.

[02:44.8] Will it correct? Of course, silver always corrects, but this is not a normal market because it's now turned into a physical market, which is it should always be rather than the manipulation that we have seen in paper markets. [03:00.0] So physical demand has gone from 10% of production to now 50% in the last year. That is a massive increase in demand, obviously stemming from solar panels, electric cars, electrical products, electronic products and also of course from defence contracts.

[03:18.4] Every missile uses quite a lot of silver, and all other electronic products and weapons use a big amount of silver now. So the demand is there on the physical side, and the demand is there on the investment side, and the production just isn't there.

To satisfy this demand, we've had deficits for the last five years.  Those deficits are going to increase. This is why there will be constant demand for silver, and it is probable in the next year or two that there'll be failure in some markets. Whether that will be in the London market, and some bullion bank will go under. Whether that will be on Comex, we don't know.

[03:53.9] But the risk is very high.

So it is obviously absolutely important for investors to hold nothing but physical silver, buy physical and hold it outside the banking system, not within the banking system. Don't buy ETFs, don't buy any futures, hold physical silver and keep it in a safe storage, in a safe vault like we do for clients, and keep it outside the banking system.

[04:19.7] Now, there are of course many other factors that influence the price of the metals. Gold is also going up, but as I have made clear for quite a while, silver will go twice as fast as gold in the coming years. Now the gold-silver ratio has gone from over 100 to about 50.

[04:36.4] Now the long-term ratio is probably going to be around the 15 level initially, but I wouldn't be surprised to see even lower than that, that being a natural level. But now I think the demand is of such magnitude and the supply so minuscule.

...

Now I'm absolutely convinced we'll see $10,000 for gold. What does that mean for silver? If you take the gold-silver ratio at 15, which is an historical quite important level, then you divide 10,000 by 15, you get 666.

[05:38.3] So, a minimum we would see with silver, in my view, is $666. 

...

But remember, you are not buying silver or gold for speculative purposes or to make money.

[08:16.2] You are buying it to protect your wealth against the total destruction of wealth that we're going to see in the next few years. That is a destruction of paper wealth that is now, at levels which are unprecedented in history, because money printing has been unprecedented, and lending has been unprecedented.

[08:35.2] Countries will go bust, banks will go bust in America, in Europe. Whether it's due to property market, whether it's commercial markets, or people not being able to pay their loans, it doesn't matter. Many banks will go under. Governments and central banks are going to print unlimited amounts of money, and therefore, the value of your dollar, your euro or your pound is going to collapse.

[08:58.6] And that would be reflected in a much higher gold price...

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 13:45

Stellar 2Y Trasury Auction: Surge In Indirects & Bid-To-Cover; Second Lowest Dealers On Record

The first coupon auction of the week just took place, and it could not have gone any better. 

According to the US Treasury, $69BN of 2 Year paper was just sold at a high yield of 3.580%, up from the 3.499% in December, and stopped through the When Issued 3.594% by 1.4bps, the biggest stop through since August.

The bid to cover jumped to 2.750, up from 2.543 and the highest since Nov 2024 (the six-auction average was 2.61). 

The internals were even stronger: Indirects took down 64.4%, a big jump from 53.2% in December and the highest since March 2025. And with Directs awarded 28.3%, Dealers were left with just 7.3%, the second lowest on record (only Feb 2025 was lower).

Overall, this was a stellar auction and clearly there were no jitters head of Wednesday's FOMC decision, where prevailing consensus is that the Fed will be more hawkish.

Ahead of the auction, the UBS desk thought 2s looked to be locally cheap on outright terms and that the recent flattening had also introduced some value, albeit marginal, on the curve. The market is rallying on the follow. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 13:35

What We Are Experiencing Is Not De-Dollarisation But De-Fiatization

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Market Strategist At Rabobank

J.P. Morgan once famously remarked that “gold is money, everything else is credit.” That dictum was apparently forgotten during the 1980s & 1990s as gold’s share of central bank reserves steadily declined and gold prices – for most of that period – did the same.

That period was the most recent era of high financialization, where Hollywood movies like Wall Street, Trading Places, Barbarians at the Gate and even Pretty Woman glorified the swashbuckling lifestyle of financiers. It was also the era of the leveraged buyout, the rise of the MBA, the retail day-trader speculating in the dotcom boom and the germination of the idea (in the Anglosphere, at least) that you too can get rich through landlording – effectively transforming housing from a consumption good to a financial asset. This was also the era of the imperialism of the US Treasury Bond.

With the benefit of hindsight, it is reasonably clear from the data that this period ended with the popping of the dotcom bubble, but the final eulogy was not read until the financial crisis of 2008 when the excesses of high financialization were truly laid bare. This imbued the arguments of non-market economies like China that American system was decadent and sclerotic – and that the their system was superior – with apparent credibility. Along with military misadventure in the Middle East this constituted a heavy blow for the soft power and prestige of the United States.

While it is typical to think of the financial crisis is an epochal ending, gold’s share of central bank reserves hit its nadir around the year 2000. That was also the approximate highwater mark for US Treasury bonds’ share of global reserve assets. Many Western central banks – the last sellers of scale – had recently offloaded their holdings at low, low prices in the late 1990s having been taken in by fashionable ideas that gold was a “barbarous relic” and that the creation of the fiat monetary system and floating exchange rates in 1971 made holding gold a quaint anachronism.

Fast forward to today and gold is now trading well above $5000/oz. Silver is trading well above $100/oz. The financial has given way to the material and the fashionable narrative is now ‘sell America’ and de-Dollarisation. Dollar assets’ share of total central bank reserves has been in slow decline for years, but some commentators are now pronouncing the death of the Dollar system as Donald Trump’s abrasive style of foreign policy offends traditional allies. In seeming support of the sell America narrative, the Bloomberg Dollar spot index is down 1.14% year to date.

However, on the other side of the ledger we continue to see strong demand at US Treasury auctions and SWIFT data shows that the use of the US Dollar in international payments is actually increasing, mostly at the expense of the Euro. The Chinese Renminbi has seen a modest rise in its use in payments, but small declines in its already low share of central bank reserves. Even the increased use in payments is exaggerated somewhat by transactions between mainland China and Hong Kong. At only 3-4% of total payments versus more than 50% for the Dollar, it would seem to us that the demise of the Dollar in favor of other currencies is much exaggerated.

Speaking to the media at Davos, hedge fund manager Ray Dalio argued that what we are experiencing is not de-Dollarisation, but de-fiatization. That is, flight from fiat currencies in favor of real assets or – as J.P. Morgan might have advised – real money in the form of gold and silver. Ray pointed out that “in a war-like environment” countries don’t want to hold each other’s debt for fear of sanctions (Russia presents a cautionary example), while other investors don’t want to hold financial claims for fear of debasement through deficit spending by national governments and debt monetization – quantitative easing – by central banks. Under this scenario, it is rational to hold neutral money with no counterparty risk, no risk of debasement and less scope for the imposition of capital controls. The last sellers of scale (central banks) became the first buyers of scale in 2024 and 2025, but the trade has broadened out to other buyers.

The debasement of fiat currencies is now easy to spot. Aside from gold and silver regularly re-setting all-time highs the Bloomberg commodity index has surged to sit at its highest level since mid-2022. Brent crude prices have risen for the last five weeks straight and Henry Hub natural gas prices have surged more than 65% year-to-date. These types of moves signal a scarcity of the material relative to the financial. Consequently, long yields have remained elevated (or surged, in the case of Japan) and the Reserve Bank of Australia – who took the ‘gently, gently’ approach on fighting inflation – may soon become the first G10 currency-issuing central bank (aside from Japan) forced to hike rates. The AUD has recently been surging in anticipation.

As Dalio explained to Bloomberg, the flipside of a trade imbalance is a capital imbalance. This is because the capital account is – by definition – the inverse of the current account (which includes the trade balance) in the balance of payments. With the USA running record current account deficits in early 2025, it’s a matter of mathematics that foreign investors have to buy US Treasuries for that deficit to be financed. For the US to make progress on reducing its trade deficit (as it has recently), it must also make progress on reducing its capital account surplus. That means fewer Dollars for the rest of the world who – as detailed above – rely on Dollars to conduct trade.

This is the Triffin Dilemma, which also describes why China – with its immense and growing trade surplus – cannot supplant the Dollar’s global role with the CNY. How are you going to get CNY into the hands of other countries unless China runs a trade deficit? Logically – though its appeal as a store of value may be diminishing – the Dollar must remain the global reserve currency because there is no viable alternative. Central governments will not return to a gold standard for the same reason the last vestiges of the gold standard were abandoned in the first place: it would constrain governments’ freedom to engage in deficit spending and create inflation.

Very clearly the world is erecting new barriers to the free movement of goods. With the US embracing a re-invigorated Monroe Doctrine under its new National Security Strategy, it now views the economic affairs of its neighbours in the Western Hemisphere as issues of interest for the United States. This is obvious in the case of Venezuela, and also in the case of the Panama Canal, and was again highlighted over the weekend when President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Canada were to do a trade deal with China.

Canadian PM Carney became the darling of Davos by delivering a speech articulating the changes in the world order and attempting to rally middle powers to band together and stand against great power coercion. Carney was delivering jabs at the United States, but the credibility of his message may have been diminished somewhat by his actions in signing an agreement with China to reduce Canada’s 100% tariff on Chinese EVs in exchange for a reduction in Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola and seafood products.

Speaking to ABC’s This Week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent explained the tariff threat by making it clear that Canada’s deal was not acceptable from the perspective of the USA. “We have a highly integrated market with Canada... Goods can cross the border six times during the manufacturing process. And we can’t let Canada become an opening that the Chinese pour their cheap goods into the U.S.”

For now, the geostrategic competition between China and the United States continues to be prosecuted as a trade war but investors may do well to heed Dalio’s warning that punishment in the form of a global capital war is on the horizon. For details on how one part of that might look, see our thoughts on US Dollar stablecoins here.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 12:10

Trump Hails "Very Good Call" With Walz As He Sends "Tough But Fair" Tom Homan To Minnesota

President Trump announced on Jan. 26 that he is sending border czar Tom Homan to Minnesota in the wake of the shooting of an anti-immigration enforcement protester by a federal agent.

The president said in a morning Truth Social post that Homan would be going to Minnesota on Monday evening, noting that though Homan hasn’t been involved in operations there, he knows many officials in the state.

“Tom is tough but fair, and will report directly to me,” Trump wrote.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed in a post on Monday that Homan would be investigating fraud in Minnesota, building on a multi-agency effort that was launched several weeks ago amid reports of fraudulent activity targeting federal and state entitlement programs.

The border czar, she added, would also be managing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations in Minnesota to target illegal immigrants.

“In addition, Tom will coordinate with those leading investigations into the massive, widespread fraud that has resulted in billions of taxpayer dollars being stolen from law-abiding citizens in Minnesota,” Leavitt wrote on X.

As Jack Phillips reports for The Epoch Times, the Trump administration has launched its most ambitious immigration operation to date in Minneapolis, sparking weeks of protests by residents and resulting in two shooting deaths.

A Border Patrol agent on Saturday fired in self-defense after a man, identified later as Alex Pretti, approached with a handgun and violently resisted attempts to disarm him, according to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

It followed the Jan. 7 fatal shooting of U.S citizen Renee Good during a separate immigration operation.

Democratic congressional lawmakers have warned that in the wake of the Pretti shooting, they could shut down the federal government at the end of January if Republicans do not pass a package without DHS funding.

“Senate Democrats will not allow the current DHS funding bill to move forward,” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement on Sunday before he criticized the Trump administration.

“People should be safe from abuse by their own government. Senate Republicans must work with Democrats to advance the other five funding bills while we work to rewrite the DHS bill.”

In posts over the weekend and in his Truth Social comment Monday, Trump has shown no sign of backing down amid the protests. On Monday, he suggested that the operation was critical.

Trump wrote that “a major investigation is going on with respect to the massive 20 Billion Dollar. ... Welfare Fraud that has taken place in Minnesota, and is at least partially responsible for the violent organized protests going on in the streets.”

Trump said Sunday that the operation in Minnesota was a key part of why he won in 2024 and signaled that Democratic politicians were to blame.

“Tragically, two American Citizens have lost their lives as a result of this Democrat ensued chaos,” the president said.

This morning, 'diplomacy' appears to be taking place as President Trump said in a Truth Social post (in a dramatic shift in tone) that Governor Tim Walz called him with the request to work together with respect to Minnesota.

"It was a very good call, and we, actually, seemed to be on a similar wavelength," Trump said.

"I told Governor Walz that I would have Tom Homan call him, and that what we are looking for are any and all Criminals that they have in their possession. The Governor, very respectfully, understood that, and I will be speaking to him in the near future.

He was happy that Tom Homan was going to Minnesota, and so am I! We have had such tremendous SUCCESS in Washington, D.C., Memphis, Tennessee, and New Orleans, Louisiana, and virtually every other place that we have “touched” and, even in Minnesota, Crime is way down, but both Governor Walz and I want to make it better!"

We will just have to see if the manufacture crisis ebbs after this... and just how Walz will respond to Trump's statement.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 11:55

Booz Allen Shares Hammered After Treasury Cancels Consulting Contracts

Shares of Booz Allen Hamilton tumbled the most in months during late Monday morning trading after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent canceled dozens of contracts tied to the consulting firm.

Secretary Bessent said 31 contracts with Booz Allen were terminated, representing $4.8 million in annual spending and $21 million in total obligations.

"President Trump has entrusted his cabinet to root out waste, fraud, and abuse, and canceling these contracts is an essential step to increasing Americans' trust in government," he said, adding, "Booz Allen failed to implement adequate safeguards to protect sensitive data, including the confidential taxpayer information it had access to through its contracts with the Internal Revenue Service."

Treasury pointed to an incident with Booz Allen in recent years:

Most notably, between 2018 and 2020, Charles Edward Littlejohn — an employee of Booz Allen Hamilton — stole and leaked the confidential tax returns and return information of hundreds of thousands of taxpayers.

Last spring, Booz Allen said it was undergoing a major restructuring and planned to cut roughly 2,500 jobs, about 7% of its workforce, as President Trump's DOGE efforts reduced government spending by discontinuing federal contracts.

Later in the year, CEO Horacio Rozanski told investors the company was "making the difficult decision to reduce layers and numbers in our senior ranks" due to federal contract reductions and a broader slowdown in government funding.

Shares of Booz Allen are down 7.5% in the cash session this morning, marking the worst single-day decline since October 24, when the stock fell about 9%. Shares have been cut roughly in half since President Trump's November 2024 election victory, as Elon Musk's DOGE initiative began aggressively targeting waste, fraud, and abuse across the federal bureaucracy in early 2025.

In May 2025, Goldman analyst Noah Poponak downgraded Booz Allen from "Neutral" to "Sell," noting medium-term revenue growth is expected to be flat as federal civilian spending comes under pressure and priorities shift within many federal agencies.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 11:40

USAR's New CEO Executing On Strategy

Submitted by Tight Spreads

USA Rare Earth’s (USAR) strategy is characterized by its comprehensive “mine-to-magnet” vertical integration, a significant geographic footprint across North America and Europe. While competitors often focus on specific segments of the value chain, USAR is the only company outside of China positioned to offer a true end-to-end solution. In this note we’ll go over the business, key differentiators, and what the company has as remaining gaps in their operations to execute their strategy. A valuation note will follow soon.

Key notes include how on September 29, 2025, USAR announced the appointment of Barbara Humpton as the company's Chief Executive Officer, effective October 1, 2025. Barbara Humpton had a distinguished 14-year tenure at Siemens before joining USAR.

For those of you who saw the Bloomberg and Reuters headlines:

Today, January 26th, it was confirmed true.

Business Overview and Segments

The company operates as a single reportable operating segment focused on the vertically integrated production of rare earth element magnets. Its business model encompasses the entire value chain through the following core components:

• Upstream (Mining): Development of the Round Top deposit in Sierra Blanca, Texas, which is the richest known domestic source of heavy rare earth elements, gallium, beryllium, and yttrium.

  • Gallium: Round Top is one of the largest known deposits of gallium, a mineral where China currently accounts for approximately 98% of primary production. It is essential for semiconductors, compound semiconductors, and defense technologies, and was recently subject to export bans by China.

  • Beryllium: This element is used in specialized applications including military radar, nuclear power, X-rays, and MRIs. Its presence at Round Top was identified as early as the 1970s associated with fluorite deposits.

  • Yttrium: Classified as a heavy rare earth, yttrium is critical for radiation therapy for certain cancers and is a foundational material for chemical vapor deposition in semiconductor manufacturing.

• Midstream (Processing & Metal-Making): Ownership of Less Common Metals (LCM), a leading producer of rare earth metals and alloys based in the UK, and development of a processing lab in Wheat Ridge, Colorado.

  • LCM is the only proven scaled producer of rare earth metals, alloys, and strip casting outside of China.

  • Feedstock Security: The acquisition ensures a reliable supply of NdFeB strip cast alloy, which is a mandatory input for the Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet facility.

  • Specialized Materials: LCM provides leadership in Samarium and Samarium Cobalt metals, which are critical for defense and medical sectors and identified as high-risk for supply vulnerabilities.

  • Circular Manufacturing: LCM brings the ability to process recycled rare earth oxides from end-of-life magnets and production swarf, creating a more sustainable supply chain.

  • Hafnium Extraction: During piloting of its separation methods, the company successfully isolated hafnium, a material used in advanced semiconductors and nuclear reactors.

• Downstream (Magnet Manufacturing): A 310,000 sq. ft. manufacturing facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, designed for large-scale production of sintered Neodymium Iron Boron (NdFeB) magnets.

• Circular Economy: Integration of recycling capabilities to recover materials from end-of-life magnets and production swarf, creating a sustainable closed-loop system.

Remaining Steps for Full Vertical Integration

While the LCM acquisition closes a major gap, several components are still required to fully realize the end-to-end domestic strategy.

1) Mining and Processing Development

• Technical Milestones: The company must still complete the Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) and a Definitve Feasibility Study (DFS) for the Round Top project. Commercial production at the Texas mine is not expected to begin until late 2028.

• Separation Scaling: While separation has been proven at the Wheat Ridge lab, USAR needs to scale these technologies to handle 8,000 metric tons per annum of concentrates.

2) Manufacturing and Infrastructure

• Domestic Metal-Making: While LCM provides metal-making in the UK, USAR still needs to “return this capability home” by establishing rare earth metal-making facilities within the United States.

• Capacity Expansion: Full commissioning of the Stillwater magnet facility is scheduled for Q1 2026. The company plans to scale magnet production from an initial 1,200 tpa to a target of 5,000 tpa, which requires additional capital and equipment installation.

• European Expansion: Plans to build a 3,750 mtpa metal and alloy plant in France are underway but require further development and construction.

How the company is addressing the premier bottlenecks identified:

USAR is scaling its operations through a combination of proprietary technological development at its Wheat Ridge facility and a massive $1.6 billion government-backed investment to establish domestic metal-making capabilities.

Scaling Separation Processes to 8,000 Metric TPA

To transition from bench-scale testing to a commercial capacity of 8,000 metric tons per annum (tpa) of concentrates, the company is implementing the following steps and technologies:

Continuous Demonstration and Digital Twin Technology

• USAR is collaborating with the U.S. Department of Energy to leverage digital twin technology and process modeling to advance separation at the Wheat Ridge lab.

• The company plans to operate a Hydromet demonstration facility in Colorado for 2,000 to 4,000 continuous hours starting in early 2026.

• This demonstration plant will run five parallel solvent-extraction (SX) circuits to generate the operational data required for commercial plant design.

• The scaling strategy involves moving from batch testing to continuous testing by significantly increasing the volume of rock processed to create enough bulk leach solution.

Process Optimization and Engineering Partners

• The company has selected Fluor Corp. and WSP Global Inc. as EPCM partners to advance the Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS) and manage large-scale infrastructure delivery.

• Research at the Colorado Facility is specifically focused on refining separation processes that minimize the use of organic solvents, aiming for a lower waste profile than traditional methods.

• Engineering work is currently focused on “fine-tuning” the separation of bulk gallium, as well as heavy and light rare earths, into distinct concentrate streams.

Establishing Domestic Metal-Making

USAR is addressing the lack of domestic rare earth metal-making by integrating the expertise of its Less Common Metals (LCM) acquisition directly into its U.S. operations.

Integration at Stillwater, Oklahoma

• USAR intends to return metal making to the United States by integrating LCM’s capabilities into its Stillwater, Oklahoma facility.

• The Stillwater site is being developed to house the largest metal-and-alloy-making and strip-casting capability outside of China.

• The facility will produce essential feedstocks for magnets, including NdPr, dysprosium, terbium, and samarium cobalt metals.

• The company aims to reshore approximately 10,000 tonnes per year of heavy rare earth metal and alloy production capacity to the U.S.

Strategic Support and Workforce Development

• A $1.6 billion Letter of Intent with the U.S. government and $1.5 billion in private investment are earmarked to accelerate the build-out of these domestic capabilities.

• To address the shortage of skilled labor in the U.S., USAR is launching an apprenticeship program to train domestic metal makers and transfer expertise from the UK-based LCM team.

• The domestic metal-making operations will utilize a “circular” approach, incorporating both mined feedstock from Round Top and recycled materials (such as magnet swarf).

Important Notes on Management

New CEO: Barbara Humpton had a distinguished 14-year tenure at Siemens before joining USAR last October.

• She served as President and CEO of Siemens USA starting in 2018, overseeing the company’s largest market with more than $20 billion in annual revenues.

• Siemens Government Technologies: Prior to her role as U.S. CEO, she was the President and CEO of Siemens Government Technologies, where she focused on implementing products and services for federal government agencies.

• Previous Executive Roles: She served as a Vice President at Booz Allen Hamilton and held the position of Vice President and Director at Lockheed Martin Corporation.

• Board Memberships: She serves on the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and is the Chair of the Board for the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA).

• Industry Influence: She has held board seats at the National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the Economic Club of Washington, D.C.

Rob Steele (CFO): Appointed in March 2025, Steele brings over 30 years of experience in investment banking and has led over $28 billion in capital raises.

Dr. Alex Moyes (VP of Mining): Appointed in October 2025, Moyes holds a PhD in Mining and Minerals Engineering and previously led critical minerals planning at Ramaco Resources.

Board Composition: The board includes experienced figures such as Michael Blitzer (Chairman and SPAC veteran) and General Paul Kern (Ret.), who formerly served as Commanding General of the Army Materiel Command.

More in the Tight Spreads substack.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 11:25

Son Of US Govt Crypto Custodian Allegedly Steals $40 Million

Well known blockchain sleuth, ZachXBT, alleges a custody CEO's son stole tens of millions in crypto from US government‑linked wallets tied to Bitfinex funds, exposing systemic custody risks.

1/ Meet the threat actor John (Lick), who was caught flexing $23M in a wallet address directly tied to $90M+ in suspected thefts from the US Government in 2024 and multiple other unidentified victims from Nov 2025 to Dec 2025. pic.twitter.com/SBAFU5hTnE

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) January 23, 2026

As Andrew Folkler reports for Crypto.news, the case revives scrutiny of contractor CMDSS and wider federal crypto‑custody controls, even as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices trade mostly on macro drivers.

Core allegation

In a detailed thread “documenting [his] findings,” ZachXBT claimed that an online figure known as “Lick,” identified as John Daghita, “siphoned tens of millions of dollars in crypto from wallets linked to the US government.”​

He further alleged that Daghita is the son of Dean Daghita, president and chief executive of Command Services & Support (CMDSS), a Virginia‑based firm contracted by the U.S. Marshals Service to safeguard seized digital assets classified as “Class 2–4” tokens that require bespoke custody solutions.​

Trace from Bitfinex‑linked wallets

According to on‑chain traces cited by ZachXBT, the allegedly compromised funds were linked to assets seized in the 2016 Bitfinex hack, with one wallet receiving “$24.9 million from a US government‑controlled wallet in March 2024.”

The probe builds on an earlier investigation, published January 23, that tied the “Lick” persona to “more than $90 million in suspected illicit crypto activity” routed through a network of addresses associated with government‑linked wallets.​

As Hannah Collymore reports for Cryptopolitan.com, that up until two days ago, John Lick had avoided detection.

John 'Lick' Daghita’s flamboyant lifestyle outed him

He had over $20 million in crypto wallets.

However, things started to unravel when he got into a heated argument with another threat actor known as Dritan Kapplani Jr. in a group chat to see who had more funds in crypto wallets.

By the time the showoff session wrapped up, John had flaunted $23 million in total, moving the funds between wallets ZachXBT claims he clearly controls. 

2/ Earlier today John got into a heated argument with another threat actor known as Dritan Kapplani Jr. in a group chat to see who had more funds in crypto wallets.

In 'The Com' this is known as a band for band (b4b).

However the entire interaction was fully recorded.… pic.twitter.com/2XkdFCSNgz

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) January 23, 2026

After that, Zach began tracing backwards to verify the source of funds and found that one of the wallets, the 0xc7a2 wallet, had previously received $24.9 million from a U.S. government wallet back in March 2024. 

That transaction was linked to funds the government seized in the Bitfinex hack, and Zach had already flagged that same address in a post from October 2024. Another wallet was linked, the 0xd8bc wallet, which goes back to $63 million obtained from sketchy wallets during Q4 2025. 

John just enjoys showing off

According to reports, it was only a matter of time before this happened, given how much John loves to show off. The Telegram account linked to him reportedly has a long history of bragging about his riches and brokeshaming people.

His username is tied to TG ID 8269661864. After he was outed by Zach, he allegedly wiped out his NFT usernames and quickly changed his screen name, but the damage was already done. 

Zach later revealed that there are rumors circulating in cybercrime Telegram circles indicating John could be John Daghitia, who had previously been arrested in September 2025. He did concede that more research was needed to fully confirm it. 

Since he made the link between John and his father, Zach claims the CMDSS company X account, website, & LinkedIn were all deactivated, and John Daghita (Lick) began trolling again on Telegram shortly after.

Update: The CMDSS company X account, website, & LinkedIn were all just deactivated pic.twitter.com/nvN6u5XMPq

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) January 25, 2026

As Andrew Folkler reports for Crypto.news concludes, this is not the first issue faced by CMDSS.

Prior CMDSS scrutiny and systemic risk

CMDSS’s appointment already faced challenges when rival Wave Digital Assets filed a protest with the Government Accountability Office, arguing the firm lacked key registrations and warning of potential conflicts involving a former Marshals Service official, though the GAO later denied the protest.

Separately, a 2025 CoinDesk report found the Marshals Service struggled to reconcile its digital asset holdings, underscoring broader concerns around federal crypto custody as illicit addresses received a record “$154 billion in 2025,” up sharply year‑on‑year.

For now, there have been no public arrests or DOJ confirmations, but the onchain evidence has been making rounds across the Internet. Law enforcement could eventually intervene.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 11:10

Elon's X Overhaul: Muting Political Posts And Banishing 'Rage Bait'

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

While Elon Musk is rightly credited for transforming X into a battleground for unfiltered truth, he dropped two bombshells this week that could significantly reshape the platform.

In a move that promises cleaner feeds but sparks fears of shadowy content policing, Musk revealed plans for topic-specific “For You” tabs free from “political rage bait” and an outright mute tool for all political posts. Critics are already sounding alarms over potential censorship creep.

Musk’s move comes as a direct response to some user gripes about X turning into a rage-fueled echo chamber. With immigration debates, election fallout, and globalist agendas dominating timelines, Musk’s tweaks aim to let users opt out of the frenzy. But in an era where Big Tech has a history of silencing conservative voices, the big question looms: who defines “rage bait,” and does this undermine the free speech haven Musk vowed to build?

The @xAI team is working on providing For You tabs that are specific to topics.

For example, a “For You AI” that is focused only on artificial intelligence with no political rage bait.

This would be like automatically generated follow lists with content ranked by quality.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 24, 2026

Musk first teased the changes in a post on Saturday, explaining that his xAI team is crafting specialized “For You” tabs. “The @xAI team is working on providing For You tabs that are specific to topics,” he wrote. As an example, he pointed to a “For You AI” tab “focused only on artificial intelligence with no political rage bait.” He likened it to “automatically generated follow lists with content ranked by quality.”

Then, on Sunday, Musk doubled down in response to a frustrated user complaining about the app’s political overload. The user lamented, “bro how do i mute all political posts on this app holy hell it has turned into reddit.”

Musk’s reply was straightforward: “I agree. Working on it.” This suggests a broader tool to blanket-mute political content across the platform, not just in curated tabs.

I agree. Working on it.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 25, 2026

Replies to Musk’s announcements highlight the divide.

Supporters cheered the move, with one user saying it would help “normal posts that never get seen” rise above the din.

Others, however, blasted it as a step toward echo chambers. “Yes let’s put people into echo chambers and make sure they can’t see what’s going on so it can continue….silence is complicity,” fired back one critic in the thread.

Skeptics point to Musk’s own feed, often laced with pointed commentary on issues like unchecked immigration and government overreach.

“You literally post political rage bait all day and night,” quipped another responder. If the boss sets the tone, how fair will the filtering be?

These updates may aim to “enhance content quality” by shifting from a one-size-fits-all algorithm to personalized, high-signal feeds. The move aligns with Musk’s push against legacy media’s stranglehold, but it echoes past Big Tech controversies where “quality” often meant suppressing dissenting views on topics like election integrity or vaccine mandates.

At its core, X under Musk has been a win for free speech and truth—exposing media hypocrisy, amplifying anti-globalist narratives, and giving a platform to those shut out by Silicon Valley elites. Yet this new direction raises red flags. If algorithms decide what’s “political” or “rage bait,” could conservative takes on border crises or woke indoctrination get flagged and blocked?

Musk has repeatedly championed free speech, vowing to make X a town square for all ideas. But tools like these could inadvertently—or intentionally—tilt the scales. Who programs the AI to spot “rage bait”?

True freedom means no gatekeepers, even well-intentioned ones. Muting and blocking posts of any nature risks creating just another filtered bubble, stifling the voices that need to be heard most.

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 10:55

Key Events This Week: Fed, Central Banks Galore, Earnings Avalanche

With the year still not yet four weeks old, it’s already been a constant firehose of news volatility, even as market volatility has remained relatively contained, DB's Jim Reid writes this morning. Consider: we’ve moved from Venezuela to Japan, via Iran and Greenland, with a range of other themes running in the background. These now include President Trump on Saturday threatening 100% tariffs on Canada if China strikes a trade deal with them, and the odds of another US government shutdown after January 30th (Friday) jumping on Polymarket from 8% on Friday to 78% this morning. This followed Senate Democratic leader Schumer warning that they will block the spending package unless Republicans defund Homeland Security after a Border Patrol shooting at a protest in Minnesota on Saturday linked to the immigration crackdown.

If that weren’t enough, Rick Rieder’s odds of becoming the next Fed Chair surged from around 33% as Europe closed on Friday to over 60% at one point over the weekend, before settling at 47% this morning. The perception in markets is that he would be more market friendly than the previous front runner, Kevin Warsh, who is now trading at 29% on Polymarket. He was at 65% last Monday. Finally in the UK, Andy Burnham was yesterday blocked by the ruling Labour Party from contesting an imminent by-election. Burnham is seen as a potential challenger to PM Starmer with lots of party support. Gilts may see some relative relief this morning as Burnham had said last September that the UK needs to "get beyond being in hock to the bond markets". 

With all this going on it's perhaps no wonder that Gold (+8.52%) was within two-tenths of a percent of its best week since 2008, marginally behind one week in 2020. It's up another +1.7% this morning and has flown past $5000 for the first time. However the Dollar has just had its worst week for 8 months, falling against all its peers, and has continued to weaken this morning.

So there are plenty of balls in the air right now, but the one perhaps most urgently needing careful handling is Japan. On Friday afternoon in Europe, ZeroHedge broke news that the New York Fed had conducted a “rate check” on USD/JPY on behalf of the US Treasury. This morning, the Japanese yen is around +1%, trading at ~154 against the dollar, marking its strongest position since November. Various official have refused to confirm or deny overnight any intervention so far. 2yr JGBs are around +3bps higher with 10yr and 30yr yields -1bps and flat respectively while the Nikkei is -1.90% due to the strong Yen since Friday.

With all that in mind, let's take a look at the coming week. 

The main event this week will be the Fed’s decision on Wednesday with the main focus not on the likely unchanged Fed Funds rate but on what Powell says about a variety of things in the presser (more below). The Bank of Canada meet the same day with Sweden’s Riksbank meeting on Thursday, with both also expected to be on hold. Finally, the ECB will publish its monthly consumer expectations survey on Friday.

In terms of data, the US sees durable goods (today), consumer confidence (tomorrow) and PPI (Friday).

In Europe preliminary January CPI for countries including German and Spain are released, alongside Q4 GDP for the main economies all on Friday. The German Ifo is out today.

Over in Asia, a likely busy week of news flow for Japan is bookended with a big data dump on Friday featuring the Tokyo CPI, consumer confidence, retail sales and industrial production. The Lower House election campaign begins tomorrow ahead of the 8 February vote. Other notable indicators due in the region include December industrial profits in China tomorrow and Q4 CPI in Australia on Wednesday.

Rounding out with corporate earnings, an important week is ahead featuring results from four Magnificent 7 stocks – Microsoft, Meta and Tesla on Wednesday and Apple on Thursday. The four make up 16% of the S&P 500 by market cap, with the overall list of firms reporting this week totaling 32% of aggregate capitalization. Other tech highlights include ASML, Samsung, IBM and SAP. The focus will also be on defense firms RTX, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. On Friday, big oil firms Exxon and Chevron will also report. In Europe, highlights also include LVMH, Roche and Sanofi.

Source: Earnings Whispers

Previewing Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, DB economists expect the Federal Reserve to leave policy unchanged while striking a slightly firmer tone on the underlying economic backdrop. Although the usual focus would be on the policy outlook, circumstances this time mean that Chair Powell’s press conference is likely to dwell heavily on non-economic matters. Questions will inevitably surface around the recent DoJ subpoena, the situation involving Governor Cook, and the broader issue of future Fed leadership. Powell will probably lean on the themes of his recorded statement from 11 January, emphasizing the importance of institutional independence and resisting political pressure — a message he is unlikely to dilute given the current environment.

On the policy statement itself, expect the Fed to upgrade its description of growth from the previous “moderate pace” to something closer to a “solid pace,” consistent with Vice Chair Jefferson’s comments on 16 January. They also expect the Committee to acknowledge a somewhat steadier labor market, reflecting the more recent data flow available since the November meeting. Inflation is trickier: with core PCE still running at 2.8% year on year into November, progress has been limited, and the Committee may simply reiterate that inflation remains “somewhat elevated,” echoing Jefferson’s framing of recent developments.

Where the statement may shift most meaningfully is the second paragraph. Over the past several meetings, the Fed has justified its easing bias by pointing to rising labor market risks. Given the more balanced labor picture and the lack of discernible improvement on inflation, DB economists believe the Committee may drop its explicit reference to labor market deterioration and revert to the more neutral line that it remains attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate — while stopping short of last year’s language that risks were “roughly balanced.”

Taken together, Wednesday’s decision and press conference should reinforce the idea that policy is now within the Fed’s estimated range of neutral and that the Committee is well placed to respond in either direction if incoming data justify a move. Nearly all voters are likely to endorse that message, though Governor Miran will likely dissent in favour of additional easing. 

Day-by-day calendar of events:

Monday January 26

• Data: US November and October Chicago Fed national activity index, November durable goods orders, January Dallas Fed manufacturing activity, Japan December PPI services, Germany January Ifo survey
• Central banks: ECB’s Nagel and Kocher speak
• Earnings: FANUC, Ryanair, Epiroc
• Auctions: US 2-yr Notes ($69bn)

Tuesday January 27

• Data: US January Conference Board consumer confidence index, Dallas Fed services activity, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, business conditions, November FHFA house price index, China December industrial profits, France January consumer confidence, EU27 December new car registrations
• Central banks: ECB’s Nagel speaks
• Earnings: LVMH, UnitedHealth, RTX, Boeing, Texas Instruments, NextEra Energy, Union Pacific, HCA Healthcare, Atlas Copco, Northrop Grumman, UPS, General Motors, Sandvik AB, Kimberly-Clark
• Auctions: US 5-yr Notes ($70bn)
• Other: the EU-India summit

Wednesday January 28

• Data: Germany February GfK consumer confidence, Italy January economic sentiment, Australia Q4 CPI
• Central banks: Fed’s decision, BoC’s decision, BoJ’s minutes of the December monetary policy meeting, ECB’s Elderson and Schnabel speak
• Earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, ASML, Lam Research, IBM, Amphenol, GE Vernova, Danaher, AT&T, ServiceNow, Starbucks, Advantest, General Dynamics, Corning, Volvo AB , Lonza, Kia, MSCI
• Auctions: US 2-yr FRN ($30bn)

Thursday January 29

• Data: US November trade balance, factory orders, wholesale trade sales, initial jobless claims, Japan January consumer confidence index, France Q4 total jobseekers, Italy November industrial sales, December hourly wages, Eurozone January economic confidence, December M3, Canada November international merchandise trade, Sweden Q4 GDP indicator
• Central banks: Riksbank decision, ECB’s Cipollone speaks
• Earnings: Apple, Visa, Samsung Electronics, Mastercard, SK hynix, Roche, Caterpillar, SAP, Thermo Fisher Scientific, KLA, Blackstone, Hitachi, Honeywell, ABB Ltd, Stryker, Lockheed Martin, Parker-Hannifin, Sanofi, Comcast, Altria, Keyence, ING, Lloyds Banking, Hyundai Motor, Sandisk, L3Harris Technologies, Norfolk Southern, Swedbank, Nokia, Givaudan
• Auctions: US 7-yr Notes ($44bn)

Friday January 30

• Data: Tokyo CPI, December jobless rate, job-to-applicant ratio, retail sales, industrial production, US December PPI, January MNI Chicago PMI, UK January Lloyds Business Barometer, December net consumer credit, M4, Japan December housing starts, Germany January CPI, unemployment claims rate, Q4 GDP, December import price index, France Q4 GDP, private sector payrolls, December consumer spending, PPI, Italy Q4 GDP, December unemployment rate, PPI, Eurozone Q4 GDP, December unemployment rate, Canada November GDP
• Central banks: Fed’s Musalem speaks, ECB December consumer expectations survey
• Earnings: Exxon Mobil, Chevron, American Express, Verizon, Sumitomo Mitsui, Regeneron, Colgate-Palmolive

Finally, looking at just the US, the key economic data releases this week are the durable goods report on Monday and the producer price index on Friday. The January FOMC meeting is on Wednesday. The post-meeting statement will be released at 2:00 PM ET, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM.

Monday, January 26 

• 08:30 AM Durable goods orders, November preliminary (GS +5.0%, consensus +4.0%, last -2.2%); Durable goods orders ex-transportation, November preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.1%); Core capital goods orders, November preliminary (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%); Core capital goods shipments, November preliminary (GS +0.4%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.8%): We estimate that durable goods orders rebounded 5% in the preliminary November report (month-over-month, seasonally adjusted), reflecting an increase in commercial aircraft orders. We forecast a 0.3% increase in core capital goods orders and a 0.4% increase in core capital goods shipments—the latter reflecting the increase in orders in the prior month.

Tuesday, January 27 

• 09:00 AM S&P Case-Shiller home price index, November (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%) 
• 10:00 AM Conference Board consumer confidence, January (GS 90.5, consensus 90.0, last 89.1)

Wednesday, January 28 

• There are no major data releases scheduled. 
• 02:00 PM FOMC statement, January 27-28 meeting: As discussed in our FOMC preview, this January meeting is likely to be uneventful, with no change to the fed funds rate, only minor changes to the statement, and few hints about the future policy path. Chair Powell is likely to emphasize that the FOMC has just delivered three cuts that should help to stabilize the labor market and is well positioned for now while it assesses their impact.

Thursday, January 29 

• 08:30 AM Nonfarm productivity, Q3 final (GS +4.9%, consensus +4.9%, last +4.9%); Unit labor costs, Q3 final (GS -1.9%, consensus -1.9%, last -1.9%)
• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended January 24 (GS 200k, consensus 205k, last 200k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended January 17 (consensus 1,850k, last 1,849k)
• 08:30 AM Trade balance, November (GS -$37.0bn, consensus -$44.2bn, last -$29.4bn); We forecast that the US trade deficit widened by $7.6bn to $37.0bn in November, reflecting a decline in gold exports and an increase in imports of computers and electronic products from Taiwan.
• 10:00 AM Factory orders, November (GS +2.4%, consensus +1.6%, last -1.3%)

Friday, January 30 

• 08:30 AM PPI final demand, December (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%); PPI ex-food and energy, December (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last flat); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, December (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.2%)

Source: DB, Goldman

Tyler Durden Mon, 01/26/2026 - 10:45