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Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week

Calculated Risk -

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

ICE Home Price IndexClick on graph for larger image.

2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in November

Mortgage Rates: The New Normal

Lawler: More on the “Neutral” Interest Rate (R*)

December ICE Mortgage Monitor: Home Prices "Firmed" in November, Up 0.8% Year-over-year

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

MiB: Stephen Cohen, BlackRock’s Chief Product Officer and Head of Global Product Solutions 

The Big Picture -



 

 

This week, I speak with Stephen Cohen, BlackRock’s Chief Product Officer and Head of Global Product Solutions. He is responsible for delivering solutions across investment strategies, asset classes and fund structures to help clients. He is also a member BlackRock’s Global Executive Committee. Previously, he was Head of Europe, Middle East and Africa for the firm, leading all of BlackRock’s businesses in one of its fastest-growing regions.

Mr. Cohen joined BlackRock in 2011 from Nomura, where he was Global Head of Equity Linked Strategy, having previously worked in convertible and fixed income markets at ING Barings and UBS.

We discuss launching new investment products and the trajectory of ETFs. Stephen also discusses the crossover between public and private markets, cryptocurrency wrappers, and working with portfolio managers to develop new strategies and ideas.

A list of his current reading is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Patient Capital‘s Samantha McLemore, Live from the Phillips Collection in Washington, DC. Previously, she co-ran the Miller Opportunity Trust with famed investor Bill Miller.

 

 

Favorite Books

 

 

 

 

 

The post MiB: Stephen Cohen, BlackRock’s Chief Product Officer and Head of Global Product Solutions  appeared first on The Big Picture.

Schedule for Week of December 14, 2025

Calculated Risk -

Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released.
The key economic reports this week are the November Employment report, October Retail Sales, November CPI, and November Existing Home Sales.

For manufacturing, the December New York, Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys will be released this week.


----- Monday, December 15th -----
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 10.8, down from 18.7.

10:00 AM: The December NAHB homebuilder survey.  The consensus is for a reading of 39, up from 38 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
----- Tuesday, December 16th -----
Employment per month8:30 AM: Employment Report for November.   The consensus is for 50,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.4%.

There were 119,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 4.4%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

Retail Sales8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for October will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

----- Wednesday, December 17th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

----- Thursday, December 18th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  There were 236,000 initial claims last week.

8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS.  The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for December. The consensus is for a reading of 2.2, up from -1.7.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.

----- Friday, December 19th -----
Existing Home Sales10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.10 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for December).

10 Weekend Reads

The Big Picture -

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of Danish Blend coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

• Once a Gamble in the Desert, Electric Grid Batteries Are Everywhere: An early grid battery was installed in the Atacama Desert in Chile 15 years ago. Now, as prices have tumbled, they are increasingly being used around the world. (New York Times)

Why We Can’t Quit Excel. Microsoft’s spreadsheet software is expensive, derivative and depressing. It might also be the most killer app of all time. (Bloomberg)

The New Private-Equity Billionaires Who Are Taking Over Wall Street: Private-market institutions are taking over from old-line legacy banks. The names to watch—and the dangers to watch out for. (Barron’s)

Local Spies with Lethal Gear: How Israel and Ukraine Reinvented Covert Action A potent new fusion of old-style human spycraft with cutting-edge technology is having a big impact on high-stakes conflicts. (Wall Street Journal)

• Very Important People: “Whichever line is the longest,” I said. “That’s the line I belong in.” (Dirt)

This is the future of war: Human history can be told as a series of advances in warfare, from chariots to crossbows to nuclear-tipped missiles, and we are living through what may be the fastest advancement in weaponry ever. Ask any five veteran national security experts and you will hear about five different emerging technologies with the potential to change the world of combat. Swarms of robotic aircraft that work in unison to find and kill targets without any human oversight. Advanced cyberweapons that can immobilize armed forces and shut down electrical grids across the country. A.I.-designed bioweapons engineered to kill only those with certain genetic characteristics. (New York Times)

The Decline of Deviance Where has all the weirdness gone? People are less weird than they used to be. That might sound odd, but data from every sector of society is pointing strongly in the same direction: we’re in a recession of mischief, a crisis of conventionality, and an epidemic of the mundane. Deviance is on the decline. (Experimental History)

How a Cryptocurrency Helps Criminals Launder Money and Evade Sanctions: Through layers of intermediaries, stablecoins can be moved, swapped and mixed into pools of other funds in ways that are difficult to trace, experts say. (New York Times)

Borderlands: The Baltic countries are fortifying their frontier regions as a deterrent to Russian aggression. Close to the border, communities now have to reckon with the price of peace. Estonia and its fellow Baltic countries, Latvia and Lithuania, lie on the eastern flank of NATO and the European Union, facing across more than 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) of border towards a hostile Russia and its ally, Belarus. They’re members of the most powerful military bloc in the world, but with Donald Trump in the White House that alliance looks uncertain. (Bloomberg)

Harder work than almost any album we ever did’: Pink Floyd’s Wish You Were Here turns 50 As the classic album hits 50, Nick Mason talks about the often difficult process of making it and how it has since fit into their larger catalogue. (The Guardian)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Stephen Cohen, BlackRock Chief Product Officer and Head of Global Product Solutions. He is a member of BlackRock’s Global Executive Committee. Previously, he was Global Head of Fixed Income Indexing (iShares); and Chief Investment Strategist for International Fixed Income and iShares. Blackrock manages $13.5 trillion in AUM; its iShares division is over $5 trillion.

 

Is China winning the innovation race?

Source: Financial Times

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

~~~

To learn how these reads are assembled each day, please see this.

 

The post 10 Weekend Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Gaza Tent Cities Under Water Amid Deadly 'Catastrophic' Storm

Zero Hedge -

Gaza Tent Cities Under Water Amid Deadly 'Catastrophic' Storm

Via Middle East Eye

At least 11 Palestinians have died in storm-hit Gaza from cold and collapsing buildings within the last 24 hours. Two children - nine-year-old Hadeel Hamdan and an infant, Taim Khawaja - died from cold in Gaza City on Friday, according to medical sources.

Another child, eight-month-old Rahaf Abu Jazar, died in Khan Younis on Thursday after rainwater leaked into her family’s tent during overnight storms. Five people were killed when a damaged house in Beit Lahia, northern Gaza, collapsed under floods and strong winds. Several others were injured.

Via AP/Al Jazeera

Two more deaths occurred when a wall collapsed on tents of displaced Palestinians in the al-Rimal neighborhood, west of Gaza City. One further death from a crumbling wall was reported in al-Shati refugee camp, north Gaza.

Overall, at least 13 buildings - already partly damaged from Israeli bombing - collapsed due to heavy rain and strong winds, according to the Gaza-based Government Media Office. Some people remain trapped under the rubble, with others wounded.

Meanwhile, over 27,000 tents of displaced families have been destroyed or swept away by floods and strong winds. More than 250,000 displaced people have been affected by rain, floods, and collapsing shelters.

Over 4,300 distress calls have been made across the Gaza Strip since the storm began earlier this week, the Ministry of Interior and National Security said. Despite limited resources, the ministry said search-and-rescue civil defense teams, along with police, are doing their best to help people.

Storm Byron hit Palestine and Israel earlier this week and is expected to continue into Friday. Its impact has been devastating in the Gaza Strip, where nearly 1.5 million people live in tents, while most of the remaining 700,000 reside in partially destroyed buildings.

After two years of relentless bombing that damaged or destroyed around 92 percent of all residential buildings, Israel has blocked the entry of tents and mobile homes into the war-ravaged Gaza Strip.

The move violates the terms of the ceasefire agreement signed in October, which stipulated that Israel must allow 300,000 tents and mobile homes into Gaza.

Ahead of the storm, humanitarian workers and health officials warned of "catastrophic consequences" for displaced people if shelters are not allowed into Gaza.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 20:55

UBS Outlines Three Reasons For Sober Revolution Crushing Spirits Market

Zero Hedge -

UBS Outlines Three Reasons For Sober Revolution Crushing Spirits Market

There are just thirteen days until Christmas. Friends and family are gathering; eggnog, spiked with bourbon, dark or spiced rum, or cognac, is flowing, and Christmas music fills homes, restaurants, and bars, blaring from speakers tuned to holiday playlists.

But this Christmas season, like the last few, the spirits market in North America is extraordinarily weak and, according to UBS analysts led by Zuzanna Pusz, unlikely to rebound in 2026.

Pusz outlined three main drivers behind these structural headwinds: generational shifts as Gen Z drinks less and adopts healthy habits; substitution from GLP-1 drugs and legalized cannabis, including Delta-9 THC beverages; and severe wholesaler overstocking that has left the industry flooded with inventory, the worst seen in years.

As the analyst explained:

Three key reasons for continued weakness of US Spirits
The expert discussed several factors behind the continued US Spirits challenges, which in his view are: (1) a generational shift, with Gen Z moving away from alcohol and adopting different drinking habits compared to previous generations (e.g., the "1:1 rule," i.e. alternating between alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks all night); (2) the impact of GLP-1 usage and cannabis legalisation, including the rise of Delta-9 THC drinks; and (3) the persistent issue of overstocking, driven by wholesale commitments, which prevents normalisation even as consumer demand softens (e.g., the holiday season so far is said to have been disappointing, with current inventory levels among the worst seen in years).

Apparently, there's no bottom in sight for the spirits market:

US Spirits market unlikely to see a material improvement
As part of last week's 4th US Luxury Field Trip (see more), we held our regular meeting with an experienced industry consultant to gain insights into the dynamics of the US Spirits market, which is relevant for LVMH (Buy, W&S ~7% of EBIT and the US ~34% of divisional sales). Similarly to the past three years, during which the expert was rightly significantly more cautious on a potential rebound in the market, the meeting reiterated the uncertain growth outlook for 2026. Looking beyond, the expert stressed increasing evidence that in the mid to long term the US Spirits market may not return to historical levels of +MSD growth and instead stabilize at +LSD. That said, he sounded more positive on the cognac category, which in his view seems to have bottomed out, with trends expected to improve from here and the category likely being flattish in the US next year, which we believe would be positive for LVMH's Hennessy.

However, the outlook for cognac shows stabilization:

Cognac likely to hit bottom in 2025
Despite the overall cautious outlook for the US spirits market in 2026, the expert's tone on cognac sounded the most positive in years. In his view, the category is finally bottoming out as cognac begins to attract new customers, thus addressing one of the industry's biggest challenges, i.e., its inability to "speak" to younger generations. This is why he expects performance to be broadly flat in 2026, compared to the wider spirits market still trending down low single digits. For LVMH specifically, the speaker highlighted an interesting collaboration with Bad Bunny aimed at recruiting new consumers and expressed admiration for the strong performance of LVMH's champagne despite challenging category conditions (UBS +1.5% organic sales growth for W&S in 2026).

As we have outlined this year, a sober revolution has swept the country:

The industry is roiled:

From boozing during the pandemic to today’s sober revolution, the pendulum has swung sharply in the opposite direction in the era of MAHA.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 20:30

This Elderly Man Gave Away His Gold After Fake US Marshal Called. He Isn't The Only One.

Zero Hedge -

This Elderly Man Gave Away His Gold After Fake US Marshal Called. He Isn't The Only One.

Authored by Allan Stein via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

SHOW LOW, Ariz.—The coin shop owner had seen his share of hefty deals, but this call caught him off guard. An elderly man from nearby Snowflake, Arizona, wanted to purchase gold coins valued in the tens of thousands.

Illustration by The Epoch Times, Shutterstock

The next day, when the man walked into the shop in Show Low, his nervousness was obvious. The man was clutching his phone, hanging onto every word from a woman’s voice that seemed to be directing him.

Before we sat down and talked about price or product or anything, he had a $180,000 cashier’s check already made out,” the shop owner, who requested to remain anonymous, told The Epoch Times. “I thought it was kind of strange.”

The man stumbled over basic questions, anxious to speed through the sale.

The shop owner’s unease grew—was this elderly customer being manipulated by a scammer?

Taking care not to alert the woman on the line, he discreetly slipped the man a note asking if he needed help. Certain now that something was amiss, he reached out to the police.

The FBI and other agencies quickly took on the case. Two weeks later, they arrested a suspect and uncovered a complex scheme that had already stolen $100,000 in gold coins from the 79-year-old man.

This was far from an isolated case. Since May 2023, the FBI Internet Crime Complaint Center has reported a surge in these scams. In September, an FBI warning estimated that losses from the scams now total more than $186 million.

Known as the “Gold Bar” government impersonation scam, the scheme draws in unsuspecting elderly, retirement age, and vulnerable people.

The scam often begins with people pretending to be U.S. government workers or law enforcement officers, according to the Ohio Department of Commerce. In January, local media said an 89-year-old woman from Sylvania, Ohio, lost more than $1 million in a similar scheme.

A letter in the mail, an email, or a phone call informs the victim their identity has been stolen and their bank or investment accounts are in danger.

Then, the victim may be told the agency can protect their money for a short time if they act fast.

The scammers then convince the person to buy gold, silver, or other valuable metals and arrange for a courier to pick them up, claiming it will keep them safe from theft.

Scammers warn victims not to talk to their bank or anyone else about what is happening and are threatened with legal trouble if they do.

A single scheme might utilize several scammers to manipulate a victim; each playing a different role, such as an employee at a tech company,a bank representative, or a government worker.

In some cases, such as that involving the man from Snowflake, victims may be asked for funds to avoid criminal charges or prove good faith.

“Basically, this is a very common scam,” as cunning as it is cruel, Snowflake-Taylor Police Detective Amity Toth, a lead investigator in the case, told The Epoch Times.

Toth said victims often go along with the scam out of fear of arrest on a false accusation or because they lack knowledge of the law.

Detective Amity Toth, the Snowflake–Taylor Police Department’s lead investigator in a nearly $300,000 gold-bar scam, in Snowflake, Ariz., on Dec. 1, 2025. Toth believes the best way to stop such scams is to give people the information they need to recognize them. Allan Stein/The Epoch Times ‘Significant National Problem’

In this case, the man from Snowflake told investigators a woman with a foreign accent called him in October, identifying herself as Holly O’Brien, a U.S. Marshal.

She told him that someone had stolen his identity and used it to rent a car, which was later left in El Paso, Texas.

The caller then claimed police had found illegal drugs and blood in the driver’s seat of the car. She warned the man that he would be charged with a crime unless he could prove his identity by sharing details about his possessions.

He did as she asked. He then agreed to hand over $100,000 in gold coins from his private collection to a courier on Oct. 27.

But the scammer wasn’t yet satisfied, Toth said.

The man was instructed to withdraw $180,000 from his bank and buy more gold coins, all to be picked up by a courier on Nov. 14.

“I think that they would have stopped at nothing. They would have ruined him,“ Toth said. ”They would have found some other way to continue” to extort money from the victim.

The scams are “a significant national problem,” said Toth, who has been investigating fraud cases for more than a decade.

Cash-for-gold scammers often choose their victims at random, she said.

They cast a wide net. Basically, this is just a cold call situation,” Toth said. “They create a sense of urgency.”

“Most people hang up or don’t answer, but one out of a thousand people believes them,” she said.

Just as in the Show Low case, victims are told to turn their assets into cash or buy gold, silver, or other valuable metals for safe keeping.

“Unfortunately, victims never hear from the scammers again and end up losing all their money,” the Ohio Department of Commerce said.

An older man speaks on the phone at home, in this file photo. Since May 2023, the FBI’s Internet Crime Complaint Center has reported a surge in “gold bar government-impersonation Brought to Justice

At least four people have been convicted for similar crimes this year.

In June, an Indian national living in the United States on a student visa pleaded guilty in a case in which elderly victims lose hundreds of thousands of dollars in cash and gold, according to a release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Western District of Texas.

Dhruv Rajeshbhai Mangukiya, 21, was sentenced in a federal court in Austin to more than eight years in prison, after pleading guilty to conspiracy to commit money laundering. He was ordered to pay more than $2.5 million in restitution.

Kishan Rajeshkumar Patel, 20, conspired with Mangukiya and others in the multi-million dollar 2024 scheme, according to the Department of Justice. He pleaded guilty and was sentenced to more than five years in prison.

The group sent fake online messages and impersonated U.S. government officials, while Patel collected cash and gold from victims, passed some to others in the group, and kept some for himself.

In November, two Southern California men pleaded guilty to scamming a Carlsbad, California, woman out of almost $1.5 million over a period of months.

The men, Xilin Sun, 35, and Alexander Charles James, 21, posed as government, bank, and tech support personnel, according to the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of California.

The scheme started with a pop-up message warning the victim her computer had been hacked.

The men then convinced the victim that she could safeguard funds by sending them to a supposed U.S. Treasury locker. A sting operation cut short the final payment of $100,000 in gold bars, and led to the arrest of the fraudsters.

In their plea agreements, Sun and James admitted to participating in an organization that operated technical support, bank impersonation, and government impersonation scams targeting victims across the United States, according to the release. They will be sentenced in February 2026.

In this photo illustration, gold coins are displayed at Witter Coins in San Francisco on Oct. 7, 2025. Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Capitalizing on Fear

Toth said that in the Show Low case, the scam caller, who identified herself as a U.S. Marshal, used an official tone and made the victim fearful and anxious.

She persuaded him to give her important details, including his name, date of birth, Social Security number, and a list of his financial assets.

“I sat with the victim multiple times when he was on the phone with her,” Toth said. “She would talk to him, and it was pretty noisy in the background. So, my assumption is that she works at a call center. The likelihood of the call center being in the United States is slim to none.”

Toth said the owner of the Show Low coin shop was able to delay the second installment of gold coins for two weeks. This gave authorities extra time to gather evidence and prepare to catch the courier who was expected to pick up the gold coins.

On Nov. 14, authorities in Navajo County arrested Ankit Sahoo, 27, of New Jersey, near the victim’s home in Snowflake, as he tried to leave in an SUV. Sahoo tried to flee the scene and was arrested before the victim could deliver the payment in 43 Australian one ounce gold coins.

Investigators found that Sahoo was in the country on an expired student visa from India and had been flown from St. Louis to Phoenix to collect the money.

“He flew in that night. He rented the car just after midnight that day and was supposed to return the vehicle that night. I’m sure he was going to be flying back to wherever it was” he was from, Toth said.

Sahoo is being held on $400,000 bond; he pleaded not guilty on Dec. 4. The Epoch Times contacted Sahoo’s attorney for comment but did not receive a response.

But the victim’s $100,000 in gold coins is gone for good, Toth said.

“They’re extorting people in different ways. They don’t use receipt numbers. These are hand-to-hand transactions, so it’s almost impossible to trace,” she said.

Read the rest here...

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 20:05

What The Top 1% Richest Americans Pay In Taxes Across The US

Zero Hedge -

What The Top 1% Richest Americans Pay In Taxes Across The US

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, uses IRS data from 2022 analyzed by SmartAsset to show how much the richest people contribute to income tax revenue.

Where the Top 1% Pay the Largest Share of Taxes

The table below includes each state’s share of income taxes paid by the top 1% and the total amount of income tax they paid.

Wyoming leads the nation, with the top 1% paying 54.67% of all state income taxes.

Florida and Nevada follow closely, both surpassing the 50% threshold.

These states attract high-income individuals in part due to tax-friendly policies and large concentrations of wealthy households.

Rank State Income taxes paid by top 1% Total income tax paid by 1% (thousands of dollars) 1 Wyoming 54.67% $2,460,940 2 Florida 53.62% $96,264,565 3 Nevada 51.12% $11,010,104 4 New York 46.26% $79,488,609 5 Texas 44.52% $81,990,700 6 Connecticut 43.85% $16,284,881 7 Montana 42.92% $2,690,156 8 Arkansas 42.22% $4,814,153 9 Utah 41.16% $7,477,634 10 Tennessee 41.04% $14,547,566 11 South Dakota 40.46% $2,020,508 12 Louisiana 38.72% $6,806,423 13 California 38.60% $122,452,981 14 Illinois 38.39% $32,677,874 15 Georgia 38.31% $21,001,340 16 Mississippi 38.29% $3,297,109 17 Idaho 38.20% $3,392,957 18 Massachusetts 38.19% $26,646,912 19 Arizona 38.00% $14,438,918 20 Oklahoma 37.80% $5,622,529 21 Missouri 37.16% $10,481,163 22 South Carolina 37.05% $8,867,845 23 Nebraska 37.03% $3,704,671 24 Alabama 36.15% $6,778,809 25 Kansas 35.79% $5,066,051 26 Wisconsin 35.54% $11,024,109 27 Indiana 35.52% $10,518,818 28 New Hampshire 35.41% $3,946,877 29 North Carolina 35.28% $19,037,365 30 Pennsylvania 35.09% $26,128,752 31 Michigan 35.01% $16,650,121 32 Ohio 34.60% $18,842,538 33 Colorado 34.51% $14,894,687 34 North Dakota 34.41% $1,521,767 35 Kentucky 34.26% $5,451,182 36 New Jersey 33.78% $26,899,308 37 Rhode Island 33.58% $2,150,700 38 Hawaii 33.57% $2,455,554 39 Iowa 33.16% $4,813,252 40 Virginia 32.94% $19,239,261 41 Minnesota 32.64% $11,524,941 42 New Mexico 32.30% $2,380,544 43 Washington 32.06% $20,012,467 44 Vermont 32.04% $1,078,255 45 Maine 30.48% $1,976,671 46 Maryland 30.45% $12,675,749 47 Delaware 30.38% $1,647,326 48 Oregon 30.37% $6,773,041 49 West Virginia 30.28% $1,647,747 50 Alaska 26.37% $1,016,945 High-Population States with High-Dollar Contributions

In states like California, Texas, and New York, the share of taxes paid by the top 1% ranges from 39% to 46%, but the dollar amounts are higher due to population scale.

California’s top earners alone account for more than $122 billion in income taxes, the largest total contribution of any state.

High adjusted gross incomes—often above $2 million—mean that even moderate tax-share percentages translate into substantial revenue.

States with More Evenly Distributed Tax Burdens

States further down the ranking, such as Oklahoma, Arizona, and Idaho, still see the top 1% paying about 38% of income taxes.

Alaska sits at the bottom, with top earners paying 26%.

Across nearly every state, the top 1% shoulder between one-third and one-half of total income taxes.

If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Mean vs. Median: Visualizing Net Worth in the U.S. by Age Group on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 19:40

Lefty 'Consumer' Watchdog Group Bought & Paid For By Big Pharma

Zero Hedge -

Lefty 'Consumer' Watchdog Group Bought & Paid For By Big Pharma

Via American Greatness,

The National Consumers League is America’s oldest consumer advocacy organization and a group trusted by the left, especially, to stand up for consumers’ interests.

But according to a review of its tax filings by the Washington Examiner, it has also become part of a web of astroturf groups shilling for the corporate interests of PhRMA, the massive drugmaker trade association that operates in Washington, DC, which donated close to $1 million to it just last year.

The organization’s 2024 tax form, which became available a few days ago, shows that the non-profit spent close to $600 million last year advocating for Big Pharma’s financial interests and policy agenda in Washington, DC, and state capitals across the country.

And a key way in which that advocacy was accomplished was through the National Consumers League, also known as NCL.

The Examiner reports that “PhRMA donated roughly $2 million to NCL between 2020 and 2024, including $875,000 in 2024 alone.”

During that time, NCL has hewed closely to PhRMA issue positions on matters including regulation of insurers that negotiate for lower drug prices for Americans (also known as PBMs), and the 340B drug discount program that disproportionately benefits red, rural America.

But a review of content historically featured on NCL’s website indicates that prior to taking PhRMA money, the group never criticized PBMs or 340B.

When asked for comment by the Examiner, NCL did not deny that their criticism of PBMs and 340B was related to the PhRMA funding, and they confirmed “that contributions from PhRMA support [the group’s] ‘healthcare work.'”

The Examiner has previously reported on apparent astroturf, “pay-to-play” advocacy efforts undertaken by PhRMA.

The Wall Street Journal also ran an exposé about PhRMA’s tactics in the nation’s capital, including what critics say looks like a “buying off” of supposed progressive “identity” groups like Black, Gifted & Whole– a group focused on “Black Queer men”– and MANA, A National Latina Organization.

NCL has also engaged on other issues where major industries have policy issues at stake, including higher interest rate short-term small dollar lending. Some credit unions support regulation of the annual percentage rate attached to such loans, but not the regulation of APRs on overdraft fees, which sometimes exceed more than 1000%.

Ironically, none other than Elizabeth Warren has recently taken to blasting credit unions for high overdraft fees.

The new report about PhRMA’s backing of NCL, coupled with these prior exposes, is a reminder that Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., will have his work cut out for him diminishing Big Pharma’s influence over national health care policy.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 19:15

The Ex-Mag7+ Santa Claus Rally?

Pension Pulse -

Sean Conlon and Pia Singh of CNBC report the S&P 500 retreats from record Friday, closes down for week as investors rush out of AI trade:

U.S. equities pulled back on Friday as investors continued to exit technology stocks and move into value areas of the market.

The S&P 500 fell 1.07% to end the day at 6,827.41, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.69% to 23,195.17. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 245.96 points, or 0.51%, to settle at 48,458.05 after scoring a new intraday all-time high earlier in the session. The Russell 2000 index slid 1.51% to 2,551.46 but had also hit a fresh all-time high during the trading day.

The broad market index and tech-heavy Nasdaq were bogged down by a more than 11% drop in Broadcom, which some analysts think is because of margin compression worries. That’s even after the company beat fourth-quarter expectations and gave a strong forecast for the current quarter, saying artificial intelligence chip sales look to double.

As the AI trade faced more pressure, with names like AMD, Palantir Technologies and Micron seeing some losses alongside Broadcom, stocks in other areas of the market such as financials, health care and industrials received a bit of a boost. In those sectors, Visa and Mastercard as well as UnitedHealth Group and GE Aerospace were winners.

“Today is a value-outperforms-growth day,” said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management. “Investors are definitely skittish as it relates to AI — not outright pessimistic, but just kind of, I think, cautious and nervous and hesitant.”

Friday’s action marked another day of the rotation trade, as investors on Thursday poured into cyclical stocks that are considered more sensitive to the economy while taking profits in growth-oriented names tied to the AI trade. The move comes after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut interest rates for the third time this year.

A rise in shares of Visa and UnitedHealth, along with others such as Nike, propelled the Dow to close at a record in the prior session. The S&P 500 notched a new closing high as well, while the Nasdaq ended the day lower as high-flying tech stocks such as Alphabet and Nvidia dropped.

“The same things don’t outperform in markets month after month after month for forever, so this is normal,” Ellerbroek also said. “It’s to be expected, but it is unwarranted.”

With the day’s losses, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq scored a losing week, with the former down 0.6% and the latter losing 1.6%. The 30-stock Dow posted gains, however, up 1.1% on the week. Small-capitalization companies have outperformed their larger counterparts, meanwhile, with the Russell 2000 up 1.2% this week after notching fresh all-time and closing highs on Thursday. 

It wasn't a good week for megacap tech shares as shares of Oracle (ORCL) and Broadcom (AVGO) sold off after earnings, the former more than the latter.

In fact, Oracle's stock is down 16% this month while Broadcom's is up 1%  in December despite getting whacked 11% today.

More broadly, megacap tech darlings are struggling lately as are other AI related stocks but the market has done well, setting a record.

How can this be? Well, if you look at year-to-date performance, Communication Services and Technology shares have outperformed all other sectors:

But over the past month, a different picture emerges: 



 As you can see, the megacap tech rally broadened out to reach Financials, Industrials, Healthcare and Staples.

I must admit, I was expecting more FOMO and concentration risk going into the stretch so I'm pleasantly surprised this market has broadened and other sectors are doing the heavy lifting.

Have a look at the stocks making new highs today, it's definitely not tech shares powering the S&P 500 higher.

That's why I called this comment the Ex-Mag7+ Santa Claus Rally, it isn't the usual suspects driving the market higher, it's quality, blue chip value stocks into the final stretch of the year.

Will this continue over the next two weeks and into the new year? A lot of big institutions are underweight Mag-7 so it's possible but in these markets, things can change fast from one month to another, or from one week to another!

But clearly there's no FOMO trade chasing Mag-7+ stocks higher, that never materialized.

All I can say is you need to look at all stocks on a stock by stock basis and assess downside risk.

For example, Oracle sold off this week after a disappointing earnings report. When I look at the weekly 5-year chart, I ask myself, can it go back below its exponential 200-week moving average of  $148 if the AI trade really blows up?:


Sure it can, highly unlikely but I'm not ruling it out completely. 

It can also stabilize around these levels ($185-$200) and head back over its 10-week exponential moving average of $227 and resume an uptrend (not likely in short run).

Where am I going with all this? Don't get flustered when high beta stocks sell off, know your levels, position accordingly, and add when momentum is going your way. 

On Broadcom, despite today's 11% smackdown, the chart remains extremely bullish, for now: 

Alright, let me end it there and wish everyone a nice weekend.

Below, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, why he's moving away from being overweight on Magnificent 7 stocks, sectors he's in favor of, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.

Also, Jeremy Siegel, Wharton professor emeritus and WisdomTree chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss what's been happening in equity markets around AI stocks.

Third, Aswath Damodaran, NYU professor, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the professor's thoughts on megacap tech stocks, if the markets are bifurcated and much more.

Fourth, The 'Fast Money' traders talk about a report stating Oracle is delaying data centers.

Lastly, Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler chief market technician, and Matt Orton, Raymon James chief market strategist, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the recent market rotation, how sustainable the market rotation is and much more.

AI Is A "Supersonic Tsunami"; Musk Bullish On Global Trajectory

Zero Hedge -

AI Is A "Supersonic Tsunami"; Musk Bullish On Global Trajectory

It has been a month since Elon Musk and Joe Rogan spoke, but, as 'Camus' pointed out this week, this seven-minute exchange, buried in the middle of a three hour conversation, could very well be one of the most important conversations of the decade.

Musk laid it out bluntly:

AI is a “supersonic tsunami” already erasing every purely digital job—coding, emails, spreadsheets, customer support—faster than any shift in history.

"I think there will be actually a high demand for jobs, but not necessarily the same jobs," Musk told Rogan on the comedian's podcast. 

"So I mean this is actually, this process has been happening throughout modern history."

The xAI CEO says AI is already replacing and will continue to replace desk jobs that are digitally centric, "at an accelerated rate."

What survives longest?

Musk says

"Anything that's physically moving atoms, like cooking food or farming, anything that's physical, those jobs will exist for a much longer time," he said.

"But anything that is digital, which is just someone at a computer doing something, AI is going to take over those jobs like lightning."

Simply put, as 'Camus' notes: hands-on stays human.

Musk is mostly bullish on the long-term benefits of artificial intelligence, provided a Terminator-esque scenario doesn't come to fruition.

And it is with regard to this "more benign scenario" that Musk drops the most shocking line:

In the best future, work becomes optional. We don't get universal basic income... we get universal high income. Abundance so extreme that anything you want costs almost nothing and poverty effectively disappears.”

He compares it to the 1900s when entire skyscrapers were filled with human “computers” doing math by hand—then digital computers arrived and those jobs vanished overnight... while the world exploded with new opportunity.

This isn’t sci-fi, noted 'Camus', it’s the trajectory we’re already on.

Musk said that his ideal version of the future "kind of sounds like heaven."

"Like I said, not every path is a good path," Musk said. 

"But I think if we push it in the direction of maximally truth-seeking and curious, then I think AI will want to take care of humanity and foster humanity because we're interesting."

Watch these 7 minutes... It’ll change how you see your career, money, and the next 20 years.

h/t 'Camus'

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 18:50

Newsom's 'National Model' For Homeless Wracked By Fraud

Zero Hedge -

Newsom's 'National Model' For Homeless Wracked By Fraud

Authored by Ana Kasparian via RealClearInvestigations,

Gov. Gavin Newsom has made reducing the homelessness crisis in California a top priority, saying the scale of the state’s efforts is “unprecedented” and calling for the continued expansion of his signature effort – Project Homekey – that has already cost $3.75 billion. 

But in a state with more than 181,000 homeless individuals, or about one-third of the U.S. total, Homekey has been marred by failures and scandals, including a lack of government oversight and accountability as well as a federal investigation into allegations of fraud in Los Angeles. 

Newsom, who appears to be preparing for a presidential bid in 2028, could make Homekey, which he calls a “national model,” a talking point in his campaign. The state claims the program has created almost 16,000 permanent housing units that will serve over 175,000 people. But since the state doesn’t track outcomes – whether people placed in housing saw their lives improve or if they returned to the streets – the program’s effectiveness is unclear, according to a critical 2024 state auditor’s report. 

“[Our budget] is bloated with homeless spending, a bottomless pit and taxpayer boondoggle that doubles down on failure year after year,” the Republican-turned-Democrat Los Angeles Councilwoman Traci Park said at a meeting in May. “Hundreds of millions of dollars on bridge homes and Homekeys and interim housing sites, and no one can even tell us which ones are operational.”

What is clear is that homelessness in California has skyrocketed in the five years Homekey has been in place, growing by more than 20%, according to the Public Policy Institute of California. That’s an increase of some 36,000 people between 2019 and 2024.

Homekey has been touted by officials as a more cost-effective way to house the homeless. By hiring developers to convert excess motel and hotel rooms and other existing structures into permanent housing, the costs are two to three times lower than building new units, according to the auditor’s report.

But with huge contracts available to developers and very little oversight of their activities, some of that cost savings was lost to fraud, according to federal prosecutors. First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli for the Central District of California launched a fraud and corruption task force to find out where the money went, and in October filed criminal charges involving two developers who allegedly defrauded the system.

In one case, Cody Holmes, the former CFO of developer Shangri-La Industries, allegedly falsified bank records to obtain $26 million in Homekey funds, only to siphon off more than $2 million to pay his own credit card bill, Essayli told the media

Accountability begins today,” Essayli said. “Too often, this money has been wasted, mismanaged or outright stolen.”

A COVID Baby

Homekey began in 2020 as a FEMA-funded program to provide temporary housing in response to the COVID-19 emergency. Hotel rooms were rented to get homeless people out of encampments and shelters where the virus could spread rapidly. The high rental costs were justified to avoid mass casualties from infection. In San Francisco, City Journal reported that rooms were rented at $6,000 a month, nearly double the average cost of a one-bedroom apartment.

Before the emergency measure ended in late 2020, Newsom announced that the program would morph into a provider of permanent housing for the homeless. “We’ve long dreamed about scooping up thousands of motel rooms and converting them into housing for our homeless neighbors,” Newsom said at the time. “The terrible pandemic we’re facing has given us a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy all these vacant properties, and we’re using federal stimulus money to do it.”

Under Homekey, the California Department of Housing and Community Development (HCD) began administering grants to local governments to help fund the purchase of commercial buildings to be converted into housing units. The money came from federal and state sources, including the American Rescue Plan and California’s general fund. Critics say one problem with Homekey is that it didn’t pay for the mental health and drug treatment services that most homeless people desperately need to truly benefit from housing and get back on their feet. 

2023 study found that 66% of California’s homeless population suffers from mental illnesses. Twelve percent reported experiencing hallucinations. And 31% reported regular use of methamphetamines and 11% non-prescribed opioids. Sixteen percent reported heavy episodic drinking.

Rather than helping the homeless, Homekey units have allowed people to privately take drugs and overdose. Drug overdose was the cause of death in seven out of eight cases at the Airtel Plaza Hotel in Van Nuys from April 2020 through June 2021, according to L.A. agencies.

“I think local leaders knew that there was a risk in placing people addicted to hard drugs like heroin or fentanyl or meth into private rooms where no one is around to act in case of an overdose,” a former Homekey service provider from Oakland said on the condition of anonymity. “Think about how stupid it is to place an addict in a room alone where no one can administer Narcan,” a medicine that can prevent overdose death.

Homekey relied on local governments to provide mental health services, although they have a severe shortage of treatment spots, according to an L.A.-based mental health professional whose office provides services at several Homekey buildings. Social workers and therapists meet with clients assigned to Homekey units and sign them up for Medicaid, but most of them haven’t received the treatment they need, the professional said. 

State officials didn’t return calls seeking comment about Homekey. 

The latest version of Homekey aims to bolster mental health services. Newsom recently announced Homekey+, made possible by a $6.4 billion Behavioral Health Bond approved by voters. Half of the money is for projects that serve homeless veterans, and some of the resources will help fund other mental health services within Homekey.

Overpaying and Underperforming

Homekey’s main pitch was that it would save taxpayers money by rehabbing existing buildings rather than constructing new housing. But those calculations are based on developers charging market rates and units being occupied, which hasn’t always been the case. 

L.A. County received $550 million in Homekey funds between 2021-2024, which was used to acquire 32 buildings with 2,157 rooms. An investigation by Westside Current found that 71% of units remained vacant as of May 2025 due to construction delays.

In the city of L.A., the housing authority used $48.9 million in Homekey money to acquire and complete a building that was under construction. Developer Haroni Investments was chosen to construct a 75,105-square-foot building with 127 housing units. A similar project in the area would typically cost roughly $18.8 million, according to experts who spoke to local reporters. HACLA’s purchase price of $48.9 million represents a 165% profit at taxpayer expense, the story noted.

A June 2025 memo from L.A. Mayor Karen Bass’ office estimated that the building would be completed later that month. In August, city officials held a ribbon-cutting ceremony even though the building was not yet finished. As of December, the LA Housing Department’s website says the building “is not yet built,” and there are no listings for available units. Requests for comment from Bass’ office have not been returned. 

In addition to overspending and delays, there are allegations of fraud. One case involves homeless service provider Weingart Center Association using $27.3 million in Homekey grants to purchase a 76-unit senior living complex in L.A., which it planned to convert into housing units with additional funding from the city.

But federal prosecutors say the deal was shady and shrouded in secrecy. Steven Taylor, the real estate developer who sold the property to the Weingart Center, used fake bank statements to obtain loans and credit to buy the property for $11.2 million, just months before flipping it for a $16.1 million markup. Taylor made no improvements or renovations to the building. A contract clause ensured that his involvement would be kept secret.

While the property was in escrow, the Weingart Center submitted an application for additional Homekey funds. The application, according to prosecutors, made no mention of the pending sale involving Taylor. Bass allocated $20 million in city dollars toward the project. 

Bass and Newsom celebrated the purchase as a critical tool in solving homelessness. A spokesperson with the Weingart Center said the property isn’t expected to open until next year, even though the grant agreement required it to be fully occupied by February 2025. 

In August, federal authorities arrested Taylor, who is facing nine felony counts of bank fraud and money laundering. Taylor maintains his innocence and is free on a $3.6 million bond. Bass is cooperating with the ongoing federal investigation.

The case highlights the lack of oversight into Homekey-related grants to the Weingart Center, which has been out of compliance with federally required annual audits. The most recent audit, submitted in July 2025 for fiscal year 2023, did not disclose over $50 million in federally funded Homekey grants. A 2023 fiscal audit of the Weingart Center found that it has repeatedly failed to properly document cash flows into the organization. 

Calls for comment to the Weingart Center were not immediately returned. In November, the homeless service provider placed its CEO, Kevin Murray, who was previously a state senator, on leave as an independent law firm investigates the valuation of its homeless housing projects. 

Homekey ran into other problems with L.A.-based developer Shangri-La Industries, which was hired to purchase and convert properties across the state. Federal prosecutors allege that the developer defrauded the HCD by misrepresenting its financial assets in order to qualify for a $26 million Homekey grant related to a housing project in Thousand Oaks. After securing the money, Holmes, the CFO, allegedly spent lavishly on himself and his girlfriend. Prosecutors say that Holmes rented a sprawling $46,000-a-month mansion in Beverly Hills, where Holmes was ultimately arrested.

Overall, the HCD awarded the Shangri-La a total of $117 million in grants for seven housing projects. The only two projects that Shangri-La managed to complete amount to 174 homeless housing units, costing the state $672,000 a pop. Holmes pleaded not guilty in November, and a trial is set for Jan. 5. 

Essayli says his investigation into Shangri-La is “just the beginning” in the Justice Department’s quest to recoup billions in misused public funds for the homeless. 

Newsom Rejects Accountability

By the summer of 2024, the lack of progress in reducing homelessness in California spurred Newsom to issue a threat to local leaders across the state. The governor gathered a group of reporters at a homeless encampment in the Pacoima neighborhood of L.A. so cameras could capture him picking up piles of trash. 

If we don’t see demonstrable results [in reducing homelessness], I’ll start to redirect money,” Newsom said. 

But today, Californians continue to see headlines revealing more alleged fraud within the state’s prolific homeless housing programs, most of which involve the misuse of Homekey funds.

The latest example involves the nonprofit Urban Alchemy, which was awarded a $2.3 million Project Homekey contract to provide 88 designated tent spaces in a parking lot so homeless individuals can legally set up tents and access meals, bathrooms, and other services. A city inspection revealed that the lot was operating at half capacity, with only 44 bare wooden platforms on site.

One of the state audit’s main critiques centered on how officials weren’t tracking the progress of its homeless programs. California is not ensuring “that it collects accurate, complete, and comparable financial and outcome information from homelessness programs,” according to the report.

Following the audit, California’s lawmakers unanimously passed legislation requiring the Newsom administration to submit annual evaluations of the homeless programs that receive public grants. But Newsom vetoed the bill, saying it “creates an unnecessary ongoing workload for the Department without providing additional accountability or transparency to taxpayers.”

Our state has spent billions of taxpayer dollars in recent years only to see homelessness get worse,” Republican Assemblyman Josh Hoover said in a September 2024 statement. “We will not solve this crisis and get people the help they need until we get serious about accountability.”

One year later, Newsom hasn’t lost faith in Homekey. He announced the allocation of $106.2 million toward six Homekey+ awards to pay for the development of 321 permanent supportive homes.

“No more excuses,” Newsom declared in a press release announcing the grants. “Everyone must step up to address this crisis.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 17:40

Leaked Video: Woke Elite College Held "Disgusting" Sexual Orientation Performance

Zero Hedge -

Leaked Video: Woke Elite College Held "Disgusting" Sexual Orientation Performance

Amherst College, proudly one of America’s wokest institutions, has once again outdone itself in the name of “sexual respect.”

A group of traumatized students claim they were effectively coerced into a mandatory orientation spectacle where student performers humped under blankets, moaned theatrically, and pelted the audience with condoms “like confetti,” footage leaked to the Washington Free Beacon shows.

Junior Isabella Niemi, who endured an earlier edition of the show, told the Free Beacon the “grossly sexual” skit nearly broke her impeccable rule-following streak.

“I thought about leaving 10 minutes in. I’m not someone who breaks rules or skips mandatory events, but it was disgusting enough it almost forced me to leave,” Niemi lamented.

Even some students who normally cheer the de-tabooizing of everything admitted the administration may have gone off the deep end.

“I understand that Amherst is trying to remove the taboo behind sex on campus, but this has gone way too far,” John Collier, a student at the school, said. “The way it’s forced in our faces does the exact opposite.”

On the anonymous campus app Fizz, posts ripping the performance racked up hundreds of upvotes—663 on one alone, roughly 35 percent of the entire student body, according to screenshots shared by the Beacon.

"WTFF WAS THAT SEX PERFORMANCE AT VOICES,” a user wrote.

"Seeing the Voices’ actors around campus is giving me involuntary flashbacks to the scarring experience that was the Voices of the Class of 2029,” another post said.

The Free Beacon added:

Every first-year was urged to attend the performance by their orientation leader. The administration advertises the event as a "lighthearted tradition" to "celebrate the humor, creativity, and individuality of your class." The school funds the performance, and Amherst administrators work closely with the student performers, offering feedback and approving the script.

"‘Voices of Amherst’ has been part of New Student Orientation since 2007 and is coordinated by New Student and Family Programs in Student Affairs. Each year, the script is newly written by junior and senior students using excerpts from the incoming class’s admissions essays," the Office of Student Affairs told the Free Beacon. "The final script is reviewed and approved by staff before the performance. Funding for production comes from the Orientation budget; student performers are not paid, and Johnson Chapel serves as the traditional venue."

In a surprising twist, Amherst College’s Office of Student Affairs pushed back against the criticism, claiming that the “Voices of the Class” performance is “not graphic.”

Amanda Vann, the college’s director of health and wellbeing education, also defended the event in a statement to the Free Beacon.

"The skits are part of our broader commitment to promoting wellbeing and sexual respect on campus,” Vann said. “They encourage conversations about topics that can sometimes feel difficult to discuss, from sexual health and communication to harm reduction and self-care. By presenting these subjects in a relatable, engaging format, the skits help students build the skills and awareness needed to care for themselves, support one another, and contribute to a healthy, respectful community.”

Sure, Vann.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 17:20

Ex-NY Aide Did China's Bidding To 'Get Rich', Prosecutor Says In Closing Arguments

Zero Hedge -

Ex-NY Aide Did China's Bidding To 'Get Rich', Prosecutor Says In Closing Arguments

Authored by Nicholas Zifcak & Eva Fu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Linda Sun, former aide to New York governors, did Beijing’s bidding to enrich herself and her family, prosecutors said in closing arguments on Dec. 10 after a month-long trial.

Linda Sun and her husband, Chris Hu, depart from the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York in New York City on Nov. 19, 2025. Flora Hua/NTD

In his summing-up, Assistant U.S. Attorney Alexander Solomon described Sun, who served under both New York Gov. Kathy Hochul and former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, as a “valuable asset” for New York state’s Chinese Consulate.

Sun faces allegations of acting as a Chinese agent and of bribery in connection with state contracts, among other charges. Her husband, Chris Hu, is charged as a co-conspirator.

Due to procedural delays, the jury will begin deliberating on her case on Dec. 12.

The prosecution alleged that Sun sold her access in the state government to China to “grease the wheels” and aid her husband’s seafood export business in that country.

Hu’s business was a flop in early 2016, but when a Chinese businessman with state connections stepped in, Hu’s business boomed, Solomon said.

[Sun] did the bidding of the Chinese government so that she and her husband, Hu, could get rich,” he said.

The defense argued that the government failed to provide evidence of a clear quid pro quo agreement between Sun and Chinese Communist Party officials. The defense argued that there was no link between Hu’s business and Sun’s assistance to the consulate.

“The government wants you to assume that because Chris Hu’s business started doing well, it was connected to Linda,” said Ken Abell, Sun’s attorney, in closing arguments.

Abell said Sun’s actions were not contrary to the interests of the United States or New Yorkers. Sun’s connection with the consulate helped secure a donation of 1,000 ventilators at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, he said.

However, the government characterized Sun’s work at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic as self-interested.

As COVID-19 was wreaking havoc on New York City, she thought to enrich herself,” Solomon said.

Sun first received benefits from Chinese officials in May 2016, Solomon said. As a representative of New York state, she traveled to Jiangsu Province, China, to promote business ties with New York state, according to prosecutors. While in China, Sun allegedly met with the chairman of the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade, an organization under the United Front Work Department. The chairman agreed to hire Sun’s cousin, who was looking for a job, according to prosecutors.

Almost immediately thereafter, Sun began to reciprocate, prosecutors said. In June 2016, she alerted the Chinese Consulate that Taiwan had invited then-Lt. Gov. Hochul to a banquet in Washington. Hochul ended up attending a banquet hosted by the Chinese Embassy instead, the prosecution said.

Solomon cited several other incidents in which Sun allegedly exerted her influence to thwart Taiwan from reaching the governor’s office, including blocking an invitation to Cuomo to join a banquet with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in New York City and convincing Hochul’s staff to decline an invitation to visit Taiwan.

Sun’s attorney Abell said the “government left out facts that didn’t fit its narrative.” He argued that important context was not presented and that Sun, at times, had pushed back on Chinese Consulate requests.

The defense argued that Sun was just doing her job and that the Asian American community was her portfolio.

Linked to Consul

Solomon said Sun was answerable to Huang Ping, the consul general of the Chinese Consulate in New York from 2018 to 2024.

But who’s the boss?” Solomon asked. “The people she keeps in the dark, or the people she’s reporting back to? She’s talking to her real boss, Huang Ping.”

Sun was in frequent contact with Huang, as email communications released by prosecutors show.

After assisting Huang with a welcome event for Chinese officials at John F. Kennedy International Airport, she told the consul general, “I want to eat salted duck,” according to text messages.

Sun was telling Huang that “she did her job” and should be compensated, Solomon said.

[Sun] bragged repeatedly to her handlers [about] what a good asset she had been,” he said.

Solomon said that in communications with the Chinese Consulate, Sun did not hesitate to share the inner workings of the governor’s office, including the fact that in 2018, Cuomo was considering replacing Hochul on the ticket in the coming election.

“Did she want to be viewed as an important person in the relationship between New York state and the Chinese consulate?“ Abell asked. ”Maybe she did.”

He argued that Sun did make inappropriate comments in text messages but that they should be seen as self-promotion, not as betrayal.

Sun also revealed to the Chinese Consulate that the governor was reconsidering a trip to China in 2018 when Chinese leader Xi Jinping was getting rid of term limits, telling the Chinese officials that she spent a long time arguing on their behalf, Solomon said.

Solomon argued that revealing such internal discussions of the governor’s office is an example of Sun’s familiarity with the consulate, demonstrating which team she was really on.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 17:00

Goldman on Shelter Inflation

Calculated Risk -

A few brief excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note on shelter inflation:
[R]apid multifamily supply growth amid a cooler labor market, slower immigration, and an already rising vacancy rate is likely to keep new lease rent growth subdued in 2026. ... We forecast that PCE housing inflation will slow to 0.22% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year in December 2025 and 0.16% month-over-month and 2.1% year-over-year in December 2026.

Under our forecast, the contribution from shelter inflation to year-over-year core PCE inflation shrinks from 0.7pp in the latest report to 0.6pp by December 2025 and 0.4pp by December 2026, versus 0.6pp on average in 2018-2019.
Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through September 2025.

ShelterHousing (PCE) was up 3.7% YoY in September, down from 3.9% in August and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Economists at Goldman Sachs expect this will decline to 2.1% YoY by December 2026.  This is a key reason why the FOMC expects inflation to decline in 2026 (along with less impact on inflation from tariffs).

Can Anyone Believe Anything?

Zero Hedge -

Can Anyone Believe Anything?

Authored by James Howard Kunstler,

"The fire consuming you is the fire that tempers."

- EKO on "X"

'Tis the season to be flummoxed.

Now you see what it’s like when all authority is suspect and nobody can believe anything.

The question, of course, is how much of that is engineered by interested parties. . . and who are those parties?

There’s the legion of monied orgs and foundations supported by sinister billionaires, starting with George and Alex Soros’s Open Society Foundations, a bewildering matrix of worldwide political activism ops aimed at sowing Marxist-inflected chaos wherever a polity is threatened by stability and coherence. Or Singapore-based Neville Roy Singham, the American tech honcho (Thoughtworks) who funds the Socialist Revolutionary Workers Party, the Shut It Down for Palestine org, and Code Pink, for spicing up every political quarrel in Western Civ with Feminist psychodrama. Or Arabella Advisors (re-branded in November as Sunflower Services), founded by Clinton alum Eric Kessler, a “dark money” spigot for social justice and equity initiatives (i.e., race and gender hustles), climate agitation, ballot harvesting, and anti-deportation efforts. Or Linked-In billionaire Reid Hoffman’s cattle-drive of Democratic party-aligned political action committees, starting with super-PAC Future Forward — more ballot harvesting and other election shenanigans. (Hoffman notoriously financed the E. Jean Carroll fake rape defamation lawsuit brought against Donald Trump — for denying the incident took place.) Or the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation with its tentacles suckered onto Big Pharma and government medical bureaucracies around the world, including the USA (until Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., came on the job), especially vis-a-vis Covid-19 vaccine advocacy.

All of the above orgs have a bought-media component, meaning news designed to subvert reality.

The object is to prevent Mr. Trump from interfering with any of the racketeering activities run by the Democratic Party benefitting its clients (the “marginalized”).

Case in point: the recently revealed billion-dollar welfare fraud case perped for years by Somali Immigrants in Minnesota through fake billing for undelivered services in child nutrition, autism therapy, and housing programs, all under the watch of Governor Tim Walz.

The state’s news media ignored the story until it got too garish to cover up. Now they’re suitably humiliated.

At the national level, it’s unclear who is serving whom.

Do the managers of The New York Times actually still believe the Russia Collusion story they were awarded a Pulitzer for, or their 1619 Project Woke-rewrite of US history?

Or their mulish defense of the Covid vaccines. Or their florid esteem for the leadership of “Joe Biden.” Or are they simply ruled by blind Trump derangement?

(Or do they receive instructions from nefarious others about how to report and opine on things?)

The so-called deep state is a set of interested parties not directly controlled by billionaires but with agendas of their own. For instance, the millions of bureaucrats at every level — federal, state, and local — who receive comfortable salaries and first-rate benefits (pensions, medical insurance), in many cases for doing little-to-nothing in their offices all day every day (or else obstructing Americans not in government from making a living).

Mr. Trump, who would like to fire many of them, is a clear and present danger to their cushy sinecures. Unsurprisingly, they have taken to styling themselves as “the Resistance.”

There are the mysterious denizens of the furthest, darkest backwaters of the Swamp: the CIA, with its fabulous black budget for black ops, and the purported sixteen other nodes of the Intel Community, the folks who have — as Sen. Schumer mis-put it to Mr. Trump years ago — “. . . six ways from Sunday to get you. . . ”).

Rumors are flying around that John Brennan is still running the CIA, or at least some operational wing of it. CIA Director John Ratcliffe has not been exactly reassuring on this.

There are likewise rumors that Mr. Ratcliffe is “compromised.” Something about a “honeypot.”

This is no time to lack faith in the authority of the CIA Director, but you must for now because hardly anybody commands authority except Mr. Trump, the president, and he has been busy frittering it away on childish tweets, calling his enemies names as though we were back in the third grade.

He better cut that out and show some decorum or his enemies will peel away the authority that he has left in this epic battle to preserve the republic from utter ruin.

His role in this ghastly melodrama is to play the lonely figure that people still have faith in. Perhaps the strain is getting to him.

He’s had his moments of remarkable pluck, but the forces arrayed against him are many, and vicious, and determined, and a bit worried about going to jail for their crimes, and this is no time for presidential tantrums.

And, just sayin’, perhaps he might also shut up about how much people love him.

(There are plenty who don’t, and who would like to act-out how much they don’t.)

Mr. Trump needs to take a cue from the name of that desk he sits behind in the Oval Office: it’s called Resolute.

Please stop yapping idly and just be resolute in the face of your enemies.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 16:20

Trump Signs Order Cracking Down On 'Politically Motivated Agendas' Of Proxy Advisors

Zero Hedge -

Trump Signs Order Cracking Down On 'Politically Motivated Agendas' Of Proxy Advisors

President Donald Trump on Dec. 11 signed an order directing the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to review rules on proxy advisors, saying they wield influence that “prioritize radical political agendas over investor returns.”

Trump’s order directs the SEC to conduct a review and potentially revise or rescind any rules, guidance, bulletins, and memoranda related to proxy advisors that implicate “diversity, equity, and inclusion” or “environmental, social, and governance” policies.

Under the directive, the SEC must enforce anti-fraud provisions in securities laws against proxy advisors, evaluate whether they should be required to register as investment advisers or to provide increased transparency on conflicts of interest, and examine “whether proxy advisors serve as a vehicle for investment advisers to coordinate their voting decisions.”

The regulator is also required to assess whether investment advisers breach their fiduciary duties by hiring proxy advisors to advise on “non-pecuniary factors” in investment decisions and following their recommendations, according to a White House fact sheet.

As Alkdgra Fredly details below for The Epoch Times, in his order, Trump singled out two foreign-owned proxy advisors—Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass, Lewis & Co.—that advise clients on how to vote their shares, alleging they use their influence to advance “radical politically motivated agendas” by supporting shareholder proposals that require U.S. companies to conduct racial equity audits and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

“Their practices also raise significant concerns about conflicts of interest and the quality of their recommendations, among other concerns,” the order states.

“The United States must therefore increase oversight of and take action to restore public confidence in the proxy advisor industry, including by promoting accountability, transparency, and competition.”

The order states that the Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass Lewis control more than 90 percent of the proxy advisor market, and their clients’ holdings represent “a significant ownership stake in the United States’ largest publicly traded companies.”

In addition, Trump instructed the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) chairman, currently Andrew Ferguson, to consult with the attorney general to review ongoing state antitrust probes into proxy advisors for violations of federal law and determine whether proxy advisors are engaged in “unfair methods of competition” or deceptive practices.

The Epoch Times reached out to both of the proxy advisors for comment and did not receive any response by publication time.

Institutional Shareholder Services is majority-owned by Deutsche Börse Group, a Germany-based company, while Glass Lewis is owned by Canadian private equity firm Peloton Capital Management.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in his chairman and CEO letter to shareholders last year that the two companies are the main proxy advisors in the United States with potential “undue influence” on shareholder votes.

“These proxy advisors started out providing reams of data from companies to help their institutional investor clients vote on proxy matters (information on executive compensation, stock returns, detail on directors, policies and so on). However, they soon also began to provide advice on how shareholders should vote on proxy matters,” he stated.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/12/2025 - 15:45

Puerto Rico: El IRS debería mejorar la supervisión de los contribuyentes que reclaman exención de impuestos federales

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This is the Spanish language highlights associated with GAO-26-107225. Conclusiones de la GAO En el 2021, el último año para el que la GAO obtuviera datos completos, hubo aproximadamente 2.200 beneficiarios del incentivo fiscal para inversionistas residentes en Puerto Rico. El análisis de la GAO constató una disminución marcada en el promedio de la renta imponible a nivel federal y en los impuestos federales que esta población pagó en el período entre 5 años antes y 5 años después del traslado a Puerto Rico (ver a la figura). El análisis de la GAO encontró que la disminución en los ingresos de los impuestos federales podría ascender a cientos de millones de dólares por año. Figura 1: Promedio del total de renta imponible a nivel federal y a los impuestos federales totales pagados por los contribuyentes que reciben el incentivo fiscal para inversionistas residentes en Puerto Rico Nota: Las sumas en dólares están ajustadas por inflación a valores de 2023. Además, entre 2012 y 2024, casi 4.000 contribuyentes recibieron el incentivo fiscal para la exportación de servicios desde Puerto Rico. El efecto de los incentivos para las inversionistas residentes y la exportación de servicios en la economía de Puerto Rico es difícil de aislar dado que los datos sobre los costos y beneficios son mixtos. En parte, esto se debe a que los beneficiarios representan una fracción pequeña de la población de Puerto Rico. Algunos estudios económicos realizados para el gobierno de Puerto Rico sugieren un aumento en la actividad económica y de empleo a raíz de los incentivos fiscales, mientras que las perspectivas locales y los datos de migración sugieren resultados mixtos. En 2021, el Servicio de Impuestos Internos (IRS, por sus siglas en inglés) anunció una iniciativa de cumplimiento, llamada una campaña, para abordar las inquietudes de que algunos beneficiarios del incentivo para inversionistas residentes en Puerto Rico no estarían cumpliendo sus obligaciones tributarias federales. La campaña solo comenzó a mostrar resultados hace poco tiempo, en parte, debido a la complejidad de las auditorías de ingresos altos y patrimonios elevados, la falta de priorización por parte del IRS de la iniciativa, y las brechas de comunicación entre el IRS y Puerto Rico. Hasta 2025, el IRS no pudo obtener datos completos sobre los contribuyentes que reclamaban el incentivo para inversionistas residentes en Puerto Rico con números del Seguro Social para garantizar el cumplimiento de las leyes tributarias federales. Asimismo, el IRS no cuenta con un plan documentado para obtener sistemáticamente los datos más actuales de Puerto Rico a futuro. La obtención de dichos datos de forma sistemática mejoraría la capacidad del IRS para garantizar el cumplimiento. Adicionalmente, el IRS no analizó referencias de funcionarios del gobierno de Puerto Rico que identificaron a contribuyentes estadounidenses cuyo cumplimiento del requisito de residencia en Puerto Rico no pudieron confirmar. El IRS tampoco tiene un plan para priorizar cualquier referencia futura. La GAO analizó estas referencias junto con los datos del IRS e identificó a los contribuyentes con indicadores de posible incumplimiento de la ley tributaria federal. La GAO compartió este análisis al IRS. El establecimiento de procedimientos para examinar casos de posible incumplimiento identificados por agencias gubernamentales de Puerto Rico podría ayudar al IRS a mejorar el cumplimiento tributario a nivel federal. Por qué la GAO hizo este estudio En el 2012, Puerto Rico promulgó incentivos tributarios para inversionistas residentes (Ley 22) y la exportación de servicios (Ley 20) para fomentar el traslado a Puerto Rico y la inversión en el país. En general, la ley federal exime a los residentes en Puerto Rico del impuesto federal sobre la renta de fuentes dentro de Puerto Rico. El IRS es responsable de asegurar que los contribuyentes que reclaman el incentivo para inversionistas residentes en Puerto Rico cumplan sus obligaciones tributarias federales. Se le solicitó a la GAO que examinara los incentivos tributarios para inversionistas residentes en Puerto Rico y la exportación de servicios. En este informe (1) se describe a la población que recibe los incentivos tributarios, (2) se describen algunos efectos económicos de estos incentivos fiscales en la economía de Puerto Rico, y (3) se evalúan los esfuerzos del IRS para asegurar el cumplimiento entre las personas estadounidenses que se trasladan a Puerto Rico y declaran la residencia. La GAO analizó la documentación y datos del IRS y Puerto Rico y entrevistó a funcionarios pertinentes. La GAO también entrevistó a funcionarios locales, empresas de desarrollo económico y grupos de partes interesadas.

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Puerto Rico: IRS Should Improve Oversight of Taxpayers Claiming Exemption from Federal Taxes

GAO -

Para la versión de esta página en español, ver a GAO-26-108642. What GAO Found In 2021, the most current year for which GAO had complete data, there were approximately 2,200 recipients of the Puerto Rico resident investor tax incentive. GAO’s analysis found a significant decrease in the average federal taxable income and federal taxes paid by this population between the 5 years prior to and up to 5 years after moving to Puerto Rico (see figure). GAO’s analysis found that the decrease in federal tax revenue in aggregate could amount to hundreds of millions of dollars per year. Figure: Average Total Federal Taxable Income and Total Federal Taxes Paid by Taxpayers Receiving the Puerto Rico Resident Investor Tax Incentive Note: Dollar amounts are inflation-adjusted 2023 dollars. Additionally, from 2012 through 2024, almost 4,000 taxpayers received Puerto Rico’s business export service tax incentive. The effect of the resident investor and business export service incentives on Puerto Rico’s economy is difficult to isolate as the evidence is mixed on the overall costs and benefits. This is, in part, due to recipients representing a small fraction of Puerto Rico’s population. Some economic studies undertaken for the Puerto Rico government suggest an increase in economic activity and employment related to the tax incentives while local perspectives and migration data suggest mixed results. In 2021, the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced a compliance initiative, called a campaign, to address concerns that some recipients of Puerto Rico’s resident investor incentive may not be meeting their federal tax obligations. The campaign only recently began showing results, in part, due to the complexity of high-income and high-wealth audits, IRS not prioritizing the effort, and communication gaps between IRS and Puerto Rico. Until 2025, IRS was unable to obtain complete data on taxpayers claiming Puerto Rico’s resident investor incentive with Social Security numbers to help ensure compliance with federal tax laws. Further, IRS has no documented plan to routinely acquire the most current data from Puerto Rico going forward. Obtaining such data regularly would improve IRS’s ability to ensure compliance. Additionally, IRS did not pursue referrals from Puerto Rico government officials who identified U.S. taxpayers whom officials could not confirm met Puerto Rico’s residency requirement. IRS also does not have a plan to prioritize any future referrals. GAO analyzed these referrals along with IRS data and identified taxpayers with indicators of potential noncompliance with federal tax law, which GAO shared with IRS. Establishing procedures to review cases of potential noncompliance identified by Puerto Rico government agencies could help IRS improve federal tax compliance. Why GAO Did This Study In 2012, Puerto Rico enacted the resident investor (Act 22) and export service business (Act 20) tax incentives to encourage relocation to and investment in Puerto Rico. Federal law generally exempts residents of Puerto Rico from federal income tax on income sourced from Puerto Rico. IRS is responsible for ensuring that taxpayers claiming Puerto Rico’s resident investor incentive are meeting their federal tax obligations. GAO was asked to review the Puerto Rico resident investor and export service business tax incentives. This report (1) describes the population receiving tax incentives, (2) describes selected economic effects of these tax incentives on Puerto Rico’s economy, and (3) assesses IRS efforts to ensure compliance among U.S. persons relocating to Puerto Rico and claiming residency. GAO analyzed IRS and Puerto Rico documentation and data and interviewed relevant officials. GAO also interviewed local officials, economic development firms, and stakeholder groups.

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