Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time
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Last week, OTPP announced the appointment of Dale Burgess as Executive Managing Director, Equities: Toronto, Canada - Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board (Ontario Teachers') today announces the appointment of Dale Burgess to the position of Executive Managing Director, Equities, effective immediately. In this role, based in the Toronto office, Mr. Burgess oversees the Equities investment department globally. He has served in this role on an interim basis since February 2025.
Mr. Burgess joined Ontario Teachers' in 1996 and most recently served as Executive Managing Director, Infrastructure & Natural Resources (INR), responsible for overseeing infrastructure acquisitions and asset management globally. He was previously head of the INR team for Latin America where he oversaw portfolio companies as well as business development and origination in target countries across the LATAM region. Mr. Burgess will continue to oversee the global INR team in the interim until a replacement has been appointed in the near term.
In his new role, Mr. Burgess will continue to be a member of the Investments Senior Leadership Team and report to Gillian Brown, Chief Investment Officer, Public & Private Investments.
“Dale is a seasoned investing leader and highly respected colleague who has made significant contributions over his almost three decades at the Plan,” said Ms. Brown. “He is well positioned to lead our Equities department, which will continue to play an important role in creating value for our members.”
Mr. Burgess holds a BA (Accounting) from the University of Waterloo, is a Chartered Accountant, a CFA charterholder and a graduate of the Institute of Corporate Directors.
About Ontario Teachers’
Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan Board (Ontario Teachers') is a global investor with net assets of $269.6 billion as at June 30, 2025. Ontario Teachers’ is a fully funded defined benefit pension plan, and it invests in a broad array of asset classes to deliver retirement security for 343,000 working members and pensioners. For more information, visit otpp.com and follow us on LinkedIn.
Let me begin by congratulating Dale Burgess on this important appointment.
Dale is a seasoned veteran who has delivered solid long-term results overseeing Infrastructure and Natural Resources.
He was asked to oversee Equities when Romeo Leemrijse who had replaced Karen Frank as Head of Teachers' Private Capital left the organization earlier this year.
I think Gillian Brown, Chief Investment Officer, Public & Private Investments, made the right decision by placing Dale is charge of all Equities, including private equity.
They need stability, to focus on execution and value creation and this appointment sends that message.
Recall, back in March, OTPP was reassessing its private equity strategy to work more closely with strategic partners and do less purely direct deals.
When I recently spoke to Gillian Brown when I covered their mid-year results, she shared this with me on the challenges in private equity:
I asked Gillian if she thinks there is a secular shift going on in private equity and gong back to what Stephen said about tariffs and we haven't seen the full effects on inflation, I wonder how this will play out on all asset classes including private equity.
I also asked her how much they're leaning more on their strategic partners because Jo made a reference to that last time we spoke to dive value creation and get better co-investment opportunities.
She responded:
I'll take the beginning and the end of that and let Stephen respond to other bits. I do think there's a secular shift going on, there's clearly been a shift in the rates and inflation environment that we are living in and that means companies cannot lever the way they used to have at the same rate as in the past.
I think we've also seen an adjustment where there was probably a modelled assumption around multiple expansion during the life of an asset that just doesn't hold anymore. When we are looking at new assets, we now are assuming a turn or so less on exit rather than assuming you're going to get your returns out of that.
And what that means is you're actually leaning into the operating performance of that business, again it's part of our plan of setting up the Portfolio Solutions group that can get into the operating aspects of a business. We will sit down with the deal teams even during underwrite, here are the five value creation levers we see for this company, and none of those are going to be multiple expansion or financial engineering, they're going to be actual operating performance growth of the company.
And the Portfolio Solutions group can work hand in hand with deal team around making sure the KPIs that were identified on the way in are being delivered during the life of the asset.
So I do think you're filling into that more and with that comes the strategic partners you referenced making sure we are humble about where we are experts and not, and where we are not, let's make sure we are finding the right partners to be with. There are certain sectors that are going to require very specialized knowledge, very specialized operating support so let's make sure we are picking the right partners to work on those assets.
So there are certain geographies we are not going to have a big presence, so let's make sure we are picking the right partners versus some where we feel we have a good track record that gives us conviction that sector will continue to perform and we will continue to be competitive there.
There you have it, time to focus and execute through value creation with the right partners.
Below, Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan (OTPP), one of Canada’s largest pension funds with over C$266 billion in assets, is pivoting its private equity approach—moving from direct acquisitions toward partnerships and co‑investments. CEO Jo Taylor says this shift helps mitigate risk amid high interest rates, geopolitical uncertainty, and the growing complexity of managing entire companies.
Below is an abstract of a WorldatWork member-only article at The Journal of Total Rewards. You can learn more about the productivity-pay gap here.
This paper focuses on the historical divergence between typical workers’ compensation and economy-wide productivity, and the implications of this divergence for workplace inequality. Commonly referred to as the “pay-productivity gap”, we show that while inflation-adjusted pay and productivity grew in lock step from the end of WWII until the 1970s, productivity has outpaced pay since 1979. We use publicly available data sources to document this gap and discuss key methodological considerations.
We argue that the equal growth in pay and productivity before 1979 and the subsequent fracturing were driven near-entirely by intentional policy decisions. Beginning in 1979, the efforts by employers and capital-owners to undercut the bargaining power of typical workers in labor markets through policies such as deregulation, corporate-led globalization, erosion of the minimum wage, deunionization, macroeconomic policies that tolerated excess unemployment, and tax cuts for high earners led to a divergence in pay and productivity that has yet to be remedied. Not only have these intentional policy decisions created a large pay-productivity gap since 1979, but they have also coincided with a productivity slow-down across the total economy during this time period, resulting in growth that was slower and less equal.
Productivity-Pay Gap
Builder sentiment levels remained unchanged in September but lower mortgage rates and expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut the federal funds rate led to higher future sale expectations in the coming months.
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in September, unchanged from the August reading, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. While builder sentiment has hovered at a relatively low reading between 32 and 34 since May, builders expressed optimism that a more favorable interest rate climate could bring hesitant buyers off the sidelines in the final quarter of 2025.
“While builders continue to contend with rising construction costs, a recent drop in mortgage interest rates over the past month should help spur housing demand,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes, a home builder and developer from Lexington, N.C.
“NAHB expects the Fed to cut the federal funds rate at their meeting this week, which will help lower interest rates for builder and developer loans,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Moreover, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage average is down 23 basis points over the past four weeks to 6.35%, per Freddie Mac. This is the lowest level since mid-October of last year and a positive sign for future housing demand.”
In a sign that the housing market remains soft, the latest HMI survey also revealed that 39% of builders reported cutting prices in September, up from 37% in August and the highest percentage in the post-Covid period. Meanwhile, the average price reduction was 5% in September, the same as it’s been every month since last November. The use of sales incentives was 65% in September, essentially unchanged from 66% in August.
...
The HMI index gauging future sales expectations in September rose two points to 45, the highest reading since March of this year. The component measuring current sales conditions held steady at 34 while the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers posted a one-point decline to 21.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast was unchanged at 44, the Midwest gained one point to 42, the South held steady at 29 and the West increased one point to 26.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.Industrial production (IP) ticked up 0.1 percent in August after decreasing 0.4 percent in July. Manufacturing output rose 0.2 percent in August after edging down 0.1 percent in July. Within manufacturing, the production of motor vehicles and parts increased 2.6 percent in August, while factory output elsewhere edged up 0.1 percent. The index for mining moved up 0.9 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 2.0 percent. At 103.9 percent of its 2017 average, total IP in August was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization maintained the same rate of 77.4 percent in August, a rate that is 2.2 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.'Brace yourself for a big beat' is the message from BofA's almost omniscient analysts ahead of this morning's retail sales print for August with the GDP-driving Control Group expected to be particularly hot...
...and once again they nailed it with headline retail sales rising 0.6% MoM (+0.2% MoM exp) - the third strong monthly rise in a row (with July's print revised stronger) - leading to a 5.0% YoY rise...
Source: Bloomberg
Core retail sales growth YoY is also surging...
Source: Bloomberg
Onleine sales dominated the upside MoM, along with Motor Vehicles & Clothing...
Source: Bloomberg
Furniture and Department Store sales saw the biggest MoM decline..
Finally, as a reminder, retail sales data is nominal, so roughly adjusting for CPI, we see retail sales up 2.1% YoY (the 11th straight month of annual gains in real spending)
Source: Bloomberg
The most notable retail sales cohort - the Control Group - which feeds directly into the GDP calculation, surged 0.7% MoM (well above the 0.4% MoM expected) and up 5.9% YoY. Of course, this is nominal, but still a strong signal for the consumer.
Source: Bloomberg
Not exactly a picture of a struggling consumer deal with hyperinflationary Trump tariffs?
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 08:39Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $732.0 billion, up 0.6 percent from the previous month, and up 5.0 percent from August 2024. ... The June 2025 to July 2025 percent change was revised from up 0.5 percent to up 0.6 percent.
emphasis added
Click on graph for larger image.
The change in sales in August were above expectations and the previous two months were revised up. US equity futures are higher (duh) outperforming global counterparts, while the Nasdaq is on pace for a historic 10th day of gains. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures were higher by 0.2% with Oracle rising more than 5% in premarket trading on news it may soon be handed control of TikTok. S&P 500 contracts edged higher after the US benchmark powered through the 6,600 mark on Monday. Pre-mkt, Mag7 is displaying strength across multiple members with add’l TMT support from AVGO (+1.4%) and ORCL (+3.7%). Cyclicals and Semis are poised to lead but with pockets of strength in Defensives (HC, Staples) also seen. Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell 0.2%. Bond yields are flat to down 1bps with the US Dollar broadly weaker ahead of a widely expected 25bp cut and the resumption of the Fed’s easing cycle which paused in Dec 2024 (right after Trump was elected). US Treasuries have been racing past peers, the euro is nearing four-year highs and Goldman strategists caution that the next pain point for bond traders may come in the five-year part of the curve. Both Cook and Miran will be a part of the vote. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales where Feroli is below the Street seeing a 0.1% MoM print and 0.3% for the Control Group.
In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly higher: Tesla rises 1.3%, paring earlier gains after the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration opened a probe over issues with door handles on certain Model Y vehicles. Alphabet gains 1.3% a day after the Google-parent on Monday joined an elite group of companies valued at more than $3 trillion (Nvidia -0.2%, Microsoft +0.1%, Apple -0.01%, Amazon +0.5%, Meta Platforms +0.6%)
Stock bulls are riding high ahead of a widely expected 25-basis-point Fed cut on Wednesday (potentially as high as 50), the first move in a policy easing round projected to run into 2026. Rate-sensitive tech shares have led the charge in the post-Liberation Day rebound, fueled by enthusiasm over artificial intelligence. Asset managers are growing even more bullish according to the latest BofA survey. But stretched positioning in pockets of the market, with some funds already “maximum long”, is leaving it vulnerable to a shock.
"Capex and profit forecasts linked to AI are overwhelming,” said Thomas Brenier, head of equities at Lazard Freres Gestion. “Look at Oracle, it seems that the sky is the limit.”
Expectations of aggressive Fed rate cuts drove the dollar toward its weakest level since July. The euro climbed 0.4%, nearing its highest mark since 2021. The divergence reflects the Fed’s shift toward easing, in sharp contrast with the European Central Bank, where policymakers have signaled an end to their own loosening cycle.
As the Nasdaq prints a nine-day winning streak, hedge funds net bought IT stocks at the fastest pace in seven months across all regions, according to Goldman's prime desk. With CTAs max long, corporates increasingly moving into buyout blackouts, and hedge funds likely only able to add at the margin, retail and discretionary investors are left to support equities.
Meanwhile, the tensions between the Fed and Trump administration escalated Monday. An appeals court temporarily halted the effort to oust Governor Lisa Cook, while the Senate separately approved Trump’s economic adviser Stephen Miran for a seat on the board.
Later on Tuesday, traders are set for a final read on the American consumer. Retail sales data for August are forecast to show a 0.2% increase, following stronger advances in the previous two months, although real -time card spending data hints at an even higher print. Bloomberg economists Eliza Winger and Estelle Ou expect headline retail sales likely grew 0.2% in August, down from 0.5% in July, as auto sales slowed, noting spending remains modest overall with consumers concerned about tariffs and the economy. With the jobs market softening and prices rising, questions remain over how long consumers will keep spending freely.
“In the session ahead, we navigate US retail sales and that poses a degree of risk to markets,” wrote Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group. “However, with the Fed meeting looming large in the following session, it will likely take an outsized surprise in retail sales to really move the dial on risk.”
Stocks may have further upside as rising expectations for economic growth continue to buoy bullish sentiment, according to Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett. His latest fund manager survey found that a net 28% of global investors are overweight equities, the strongest reading in seven months. Views on growth also showed the biggest positive shift in nearly a year, with only a net 16% of respondents still anticipating an economic slowdown, Hartnett said.
Europe's Stoxx 600 falls 0.1% as the rally that sent US and Asian stocks to fresh highs sputters in Europe. Italian banks dip on news that the government was drafting plans to raise another €1.5 billion ($1.8 billion) from lenders, while miners gained on the back of rising iron ore prices. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks surged to a fresh intra-day record, propelled by a rally in chip stocks after Beijing’s anti-monopoly ruling on Nvidia. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% to reach its highest level on record, as chip stocks such as TSMC and Samsung Electronics led gains. Investor sentiment remained upbeat also on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this week. Chip stocks jumped on Tuesday after a Chinese regulator ruled that Nvidia violated anti-monopoly laws in its 2020 acquisition of networking gear maker Mellanox Technologies Ltd. The decision was interpreted by some investors as a signal of Beijing’s push to promote localization and self-sufficiency in chip technology, sparking gains in Chinese home-grown semiconductor firms. Asian equities have been on a tear recently, repeatedly testing a previous high set in 2021. Investor sentiment has gradually improved since April, boosted by easing trade tensions with the US and a resurgence in Chinese stocks due to AI developments and government efforts to cut overcapacity. Here Are the Most Notable Movers
In FX, the dollar weakens for a second day, boosting G-10 peers. The euro touches highest since July, closing in on its strongest level in four years. Sterling hits a two-month high too after UK jobs data backed a slower pace of cuts by the Bank of England.
In rates, US Treasuries were little changed, with the 10-year yield at 4.04% and European bond markets, mixed for gilts. US government bonds have outpaced global peers this year, delivering a 5.8% return as expectations for policy easing reversed widely held bearish views.
In commodities, gold hits another record high, trading about $19 higher on the session to around $3,697/oz. Oil prices dip, with Brent slipping closer to $67/barrel.
Today's economic data slate includes August retail sales and import/export prices and September New York Fed services business activity (8:30am), August industrial production (9:15am), and July business inventories and September NAHB housing market index (10am).
Market Snapshot
Top Overnight News
Trade/Tariffs
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed amid some cautiousness ahead of upcoming risk events and despite the fresh record levels on Wall St, where the mega-caps did most of the lifting as Alphabet joined the USD 3tln market cap club. ASX 200 marginally gained with the index led by strength in mining, resources and materials, but with gains capped by weakness in defensives. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses following an early unprecedented climb to above the 45,000 milestone on return from the extended weekend, while the calendar was quiet, although lower US tariffs on Japan took effect. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were subdued despite the recent talks in Madrid where the US and China reached a framework agreement on TikTok although the details were scarce, while US President Trump and Chinese President Xi are scheduled to talk on Friday.
Top Asian News
European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.1%) opened around the unchanged mark, but sentiment then slipped as markets turned risk-off across the board in the continent. That pressure has since slowed down a little and are off worst levels – but indices are still broadly lower. European sectors are broadly on the backfoot, in-fitting with the risk tone. IT is towards the top of the pile, boosted by strength across Dutch semiconductor names; nothing really driving the upside today, but it does come after ASML (+3%) once again overtook SAP, to become Europe’s largest company. Consumer Staples is found towards the bottom of the pile; Unilever (-1%) moves lower after it appointed a new CFO.
Top European News
FX
Fixed Income
Commodities
Geopolitics: Middle East
Geopolitics: Ukraine
US Event Calendar
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I woke up this morning the father of a 10-year-old daughter. Where did the time go? Don't tell my family as it's a surprise for tonight, but I spent part of the summer writing and recording a new song and creating a video celebrating Maisie's first decade. The world premiere at home will be after a night out at an escape room tonight... if we escape.
As we await tomorrow’s FOMC decision, markets have continued to power forward over the last 24 hours, with risk appetite supported by positive noises out of the US-China trade talks. That newsflow led to growing optimism that some kind of longer-term truce would eventually be reached between the two, and those hopes of a cooling in the trade war meant both the S&P 500 (+0.47%) and the NASDAQ (+0.94%) closed at another record high. Moreover, it was a decent session for sovereign bonds as well, thanks to mounting anticipation that the Fed would deliver another rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting. So, it was a strong day all round, and US Treasuries also rallied across the curve, with the 10yr yield (-2.8bps) falling back to 4.04%.
Ahead of today's start to the FOMC, an appeals court last night blocked Mr Trump from firing Lisa Cook from the Fed board before her appeal against her dismissal is heard. So, she will likely be at the meeting barring any additional legal action. Stephen Miran could also sit as he was confirmed in his new post by the Senate last night. So, it's shaping up to be an interesting 2-day meeting.
On those US-China headlines, Trump himself posted that the meeting in Madrid “has gone VERY WELL!” and that he would be speaking with President Xi on Friday. Separately, Treasury Secretary Bessent said that “we do have a framework for the deal with TikTok”. This collectively led to a fresh burst of optimism, particularly around stocks which are more exposed to US-China trade. For instance, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China index (+0.87%) outperformed, which is an index made up of US-listed companies who do a majority of their business in China.
That positive trade narrative spread across markets, helping to lift global equities as investors grew more hopeful on the path of US-China relations. After all, there’s still a lot of tension between the two sides, and it’s worth remembering that the tariffs are still subject to a temporary 90-day truce in place between the two sides, which currently runs out in November. The hope is that continued engagement will eventually lead to a more durable truce, avoiding the possibility of US tariffs jumping back up to the 145% rate seen after Liberation Day. Indeed, US Trade Representative Greer said on the tariff extension, that “We’re certainly open to considering further action there, if the talks continue in a positive direction”.
This backdrop led to a fresh global advance, with the S&P 500 (+0.47%) at another all-time high whilst in Europe the Stoxx 600 (+0.42%) closed 1% from its all-time high reached back in March. In fact, the S&P 500 is now on track to have risen for 6 of the last 7 weeks, which would be the most sustained advance of 2025 so far. Those moves were led by tech stocks, with both the NASDAQ (+0.94%) and the Magnificent 7 (+1.95%) hitting fresh highs of their own. Alphabet (+4.49%) became the fourth company to reach a $3trn valuation while Tesla (+3.56%) also outperformed following news that Elon Musk had purchased around $1bn worth of Tesla shares. Nvidia lost ground after China found they’d violated their antitrust law with a deal in 2020, but its stock was only down -0.04% by the close. The strong day ended with the S&P 500 up +12.47% for the year, even as most of its constituents were lower on the day.
For sovereign bonds, it was generally a strong day as well. But French bonds saw a relative underperformance after Friday’s news that Fitch Ratings had downgraded their credit rating from AA- to A+. Yields on 10yr OATs (-2.8bps) were only down a bit to 3.48%, whilst those on Italian BTPs fell by a larger -4.7bps to 3.47%. That’s a significant move, because it’s the first time since 1999 that France’s 10yr yield has closed above Italy’s, having briefly moved above on an intraday basis last week. Clearly this trend has been apparent for some time, but it’s a striking re-ordering of how investors perceive the risk of different sovereigns, having been in a completely different place at the height of the Euro crisis in the early 2010s.
In absolute terms however, it was still a strong day for sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. For example, US Treasury yields came down across the curve, with the 2yr yield (-1.9bps) falling to 3.54%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.8bps) fell to 4.04%, which further helped to ease fears about the fiscal trajectory. The bond rally got a further push from the NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey for September, which fell to a 3-month low of -8.7 (vs. +5.0 expected), coming in beneath every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. So that helped to boost expectations for a faster cycle of Fed rate cuts, with the amount of cuts priced in by the June meeting up +2.0bps on the day to 120bps. And that move lower for yields was clear across the rest of Europe too, with those on 10yr bunds (-2.4bps) and gilts (-3.9bps) both falling as well.
The lower rates backdrop weighed on the dollar, with the dollar index (-0.25%) falling to its lowest in almost eight weeks. Meanwhile, gold (+0.98%) reached a record high for the ninth time in twelve sessions at $3,679/oz.
In Asia, the KOSPI (+1.18%) is leading gains, touching a new peak as heavyweight chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are sharply higher while the Nikkei (+0.50%) is also trading in positive territory after returning from a holiday. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+0.12%) is swinging between gains and losses while on the mainland the CSI (-0.39%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.10%) are bucking the positive regional trend with both drifting lower after strong recent gains. Meanwhile, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.31%) is also edging higher. S&P 500 (+0.09%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.14%) futures are also trading slightly higher.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales and industrial production for August, the German ZEW survey for September, Canada’s CPI for August, and the UK’s latest employment report. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Escriva.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 08:29Authored by Fernando Motolese via BitcoinMagazine.com,
Trying to build a Bitcoin circular economy in Brazil and lobbying politicians led me to uncovering four archetypes of Bitcoiners: the coordinators, the market pragmatists, the monetary purists, and the Bitcoin minimalists. Here’s what I’ve learned...
A few years ago, I made an unlikely bet: to build a Bitcoin circular economy in the heart of a fishing village in Brazil’s Northeast. No venture capitalists, no “crypto,” no empty promises. Only nodes, satoshis, in‑person education and plenty of sidewalk conversations.
That is how Praia Bitcoin Jericoacoara was born: a radical experiment in financial sovereignty built with open source tools and feet in the sand.
In four years at Praia Bitcoin Jericoacoara, we turned a beach town into a living Bitcoin classroom: We onboarded families, shopkeepers and street vendors; taught self‑custody in small groups; installed reliable Lightning routes and point‑of‑sale tools; ran social programs paid in sats; and hosted meetups that made Bitcoin part of daily life.
Living on the Bitcoin standard, I began to see what is really happening at the technological edge.
In August 2025, I published four short articles on X. Different in form and tone, they converged on the same question: What role should Bitcoin play, and what role should we play in building it? They came in fours:
a field report on our work with the Bitcoin Community Bank in Jericoacoara
a critique of bitcoin maximalism’s rigidity
a diplomatic letter inviting Bhutan’s prime minister to consider the satoshi as a unit of account, and
a public appeal to keep Bitcoin a peer‑to‑peer cash system.
What they share is the desire to align practice, theory, and a future‑facing vision.
In the first piece, I shared the challenges and lessons from a real experiment: building a Bitcoin‑based circular economy in Northeast Brazil. Inspired by Bitcoin Beach in El Salvador, we rooted the Jericoacoara project in education, inclusion and local infrastructure. We installed servers, onboarded merchants and neighbors, created social programs and sought institutional recognition as a Community Bitcoin Bank.
Building a Bitcoin Circular Economy in Jericoacoara
— Praia Bitcoin Brazil ⚡ (@BitcoinBeachBR) August 2, 2025
I’m deeply inspired by the progress of @BitcoinEkasi, the momentum of the #spedn movement across Africa, and the compelling journey of @orphansofuganda. These initiatives prove that Bitcoin can serve as a true medium of… pic.twitter.com/KiGndjGZen
We were rejected by the local authorities. Even in the face of the state’s legal and political unpreparedness, we moved forward with conviction. We believe that when Bitcoin is rooted in place, it can be more than money; it can be a tool for community transformation. Yet authorities struggled to understand this, and they denied our request to register what would have been the first Bitcoin community bank.
In the second piece, I confronted an ideological tension within the community itself. Maximalist rhetoric, which defends Bitcoin as the only legitimate project and treats the rest of “crypto” as scams, had its historical role. It helped protect the integrity of the ecosystem, exposed frauds and accelerated market maturation. But does it still serve the goal of large‑scale adoption? Does it help communicate Bitcoin’s value to newcomers? I caught myself ignoring relevant technological solutions simply because they were outside the maximalist bubble.
After revisiting the discussion and reading every reply and quote, my conclusion was that other projects end up serving as funnels, sandboxes or distribution channels that drive people toward real Bitcoin adoption. Stablecoins, altcoins, memecoins, and centralized cryptocurrencies are moving toward Bitcoin, absorbing inflation and even helping to establish the prices of other commodities. Perhaps it is time for a new posture: not abandoning principles, but embracing a Bitcoin that keeps the focus on the essence while remaining willing to engage with a world in constant transformation, with skepticism and an open mind; by educating regulators that Bitcoin is the decentralized cryptocurrency and that all other projects are centralized cryptocurrencies.
In the third piece, I took this vision into the diplomatic arena. I wrote an open letter to Bhutan’s prime minister suggesting that the country consider adopting the satoshi as its national unit of account.
Open Letter to Dr. Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Bhutan
— Praia Bitcoin Brazil ⚡ (@BitcoinBeachBR) August 19, 2025
Your Excellency @tsheringtobgay,
It is with deep respect and admiration that I write to you, recognizing Bhutan’s remarkable journey in preserving its sovereignty, cultural identity, and commitment to Gross National… pic.twitter.com/2tuTgfzAQi
The proposal, more symbolic than technical, had a clear goal: to imagine how Bitcoin can engage with alternative development models that do not depend on the IMF or the dollar and that respect local culture and sovereignty. The reaction to the letter revealed something important: even within the Bitcoin ecosystem there are ideological lanes: conservatives, centrists and progressives, each trying to interpret the protocol through a distinct worldview.
This article is therefore a point of convergence. It ties together those three experiences (practical, ideological and diplomatic) to propose a fresh look at what we are really trying to build. More than repeating dogmas, this moment calls for discernment. More than talking about freedom, it is time to practice it where it is most needed — on the ground, in our language, in our institutions and in our relationships.
In the fourth piece, I distilled my open note to Bitcoin Core into a simple point: keep Bitcoin a peer‑to‑peer cash system, not a generic data host.
Hello @bitcoincoreorg,
— Praia Bitcoin Brazil ⚡ (@BitcoinBeachBR) August 23, 2025
We live Bitcoin. We dedicate our lives to it, full time, nonstop. On the ground, we work as part of Bitcoin’s invisible team, often without salaries, simply because we believe in its power to fix money and defend society from injustice and… pic.twitter.com/QLieljdVJn
I argued that loosening default data‑carrying settings invites bloat, legal risk and reputational damage, and asked developers to think in centuries, not release cycles. I also noted that recent Core releases, v29 and v30, revisited how much extra data transactions may carry by default. That lives at the technical edge of the protocol — software defaults, not the monetary rules. Bitcoin is money. Like a banknote you can scribble on but not use to publish a book, transactions can include small notes but should not be hijacked for unrelated content.
This context raised a bigger question: What do we want Bitcoin to be? The exchange made the fault lines clear: different groups love Bitcoin for different reasons and accept different trade‑offs. In the next section, I name those lanes and show how they fit together.
Watching Bitcoin Knots gain visibility relative to Bitcoin Core, and hearing developers complain about its pull‑request process, reminded me of the First Follower lesson. Knots is largely maintained by a single developer.
Movements do not scale because a lone leader is brilliant. They scale when early followers make participation visible and easy, lowering social risk and showing others exactly how to behave.
From inside the industry, spending countless hours analyzing geopolitics and future trends, I began to see Bitcoiners in four main categories, with the extremes on both sides clearly defined so let’s break them down.
The Four Archetypes of Bitcoin Bitcoin Database, Coordination BuildersBitcoin Central, Market PragmatistsCore belief: Bitcoin is a neutral public record. It can coordinate people and software. Money is one powerful use, not the only one.
What they prioritize: Time‑stamps and proofs; public records; identity attestations; new media on Bitcoin; social protocols like Nostr; building most features on upper layers so L1 stays stable.
What they get right: They attract builders and new users with fresh ideas and on‑ramps. More experiments mean more chances to find lasting utility.
Risks and blind spots: The spotlight can drift away from money. Too much nonmonetary data can waste block space and invite controversy. New systems sometimes reintroduce trusted middlemen.
Attitude to Lightning: Open, when it helps apps feel instant. Also explore other rails. Keep L1 simple.
North Star checks: Useful apps with real users; active developers; low, respectful footprint on L1.
Frequent examples: Casey Rodarmor and Ordinals; Muneeb Ali and Stacks; Burak and Ark research; Maxim Orlovsky and RGB; fiatjaf and Nostr; OpenTimestamps. (Note: this is illustrative, not endorsements.)
Tagline: “Bitcoin is a database.”
Bitcoin Conservatives, Monetary PuristsCore belief: Bitcoin is money and an asset. Price and liquidity drive adoption at scale and help fund security and development.
What they prioritize: ETFs and treasuries; compliant on‑ramps and off‑ramps; deep, healthy markets; education for investors and institutions.
What they get right: Liquidity brings the next wave of users and pays for builders, mining and education.
Risks and blind spots: Convenience custody and short‑term thinking. Distribution can concentrate in a few large hands.
Attitude to Lightning: Pragmatic. Use it when it helps reach more people.
North Star checks: Market depth and volumes; hashrate security budget; ETF and retail participation.
Frequent examples: Michael Saylor; iShares and Fidelity Bitcoin ETFs; market makers; on‑chain analysts. Edge Case: High leverage and over‑reliance on corporate treasuries.
Tagline: “We care about price.”
Bitcoin Minimalists: Digital Gold and Digital Cash, Tool for Social TransformationCore belief: Bitcoin is money. Protect the base layer. Scarcity, neutrality and self‑custody are nonnegotiable. Save first, then spend (e.g., in a circular economy).
What they prioritize: Simple, stable rules on L1; run your own node; education on keys, UTXOs, and fees; miner and client diversity; long time horizons.
What they get right: Clear incentives and strong culture. If money is broken, every price in the economy is wrong. Fix money first.
Risks and blind spots: UX and payments can lag. Newcomers may feel gatekept. Adoption can slow if everyday use is ignored.
Attitude to Lightning: Often skeptical. Prefer on‑chain finality and warn about complexity and custodial drift.
North Star checks: More coins in self‑custody; healthy node count; decentralized mining; growing long‑term holder supply.
Frequent examples: Saifedean Ammous; Pierre Rochard; proof‑of‑keys style campaigns; full‑node culture and cold storage. Edge Case: Never sell. Treat every altcoin as a scam.
Tagline: “Bitcoin is digital gold.”
ConclusionCore belief: Bitcoin should be digital gold for saving and digital cash for spending, with the smallest possible trust surface.
What they prioritize: Save on‑chain with final settlement; spend via noncustodial Lightning where possible; use ecash mints like Cashu for privacy with simple exit to keys; merchant flows that settle to self custody.
What they get right: Align savings and daily use without giving up sovereignty.
Risks and blind spots: Friction and slower distribution; reluctance to adopt UX abstractions; fragmentation across minimal stacks.
Attitude to Lightning: Yes, but strict. Prefer noncustodial or minimally trusted setups. Be cautious with large custodial hubs.
North‑star checks: Users who both save on‑chain and spend via non‑custodial L2; easy withdrawals to keys; high payment success without custodians.
Tagline: “Buy, spend, replace.”
Bitcoin’s culture includes four honest defaults that often talk past one another. Builders expand the surface area, market pragmatists prove everyday utility, monetary purists scale distribution and minimalists protect the base.
Together. they create a productive tension that keeps Bitcoin useful and resilient for real people.
After years of working in a circular economy and writing publicly about these debates, my view is simple. Bitcoin is money. Keep the base layer simple. Save in bitcoin on-chain. Spend in sats when it serves people, as it does in a circular economy. Support Lightning only when the exit to your own keys stays clear and simple. I do not support the “Bitcoin as Database” path, because turning Bitcoin into a general data host distracts from its monetary mission and invites waste, confusion, and reputational harm.
The way forward is practical and principled. Judge ideas by whether they grow self custody, make payments reliable without custodians, deepen liquidity that funds security and education and respect the limits of the base layer. If we hold to that standard, the lanes can complement one another and more people will share in the benefits of a free, neutral and credibly decentralized money.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 08:05The best bang for the buck in the grocery store protein aisle this year hasn't been beef, it's been eggs. Prices have plummeted thanks to President Trump's swift action to fix the Biden-Harris regime's botched bird flu culling disaster. By contrast, ground beef has surged to a record $6.32 per pound, squeezed by the smallest US cattle herd in decades, with a bleak outlook despite some signs of a rebuilding phase nearing.
Here's more from Bloomberg:
For more than a year, egg prices have served as the poster child for the higher cost of living in the US. That distinction may soon move over to the beef market, said Darin Parker, president of global meat trader Parker-Migliorini International Llc. Parker warns that Americans will keep paying more for burgers as restrictions on Brazilian imports further squeeze already tight domestic supplies. Indeed, one measure of US retail prices shows that ground beef has climbed more than 10% since January, while eggs dropped nearly 30%.
Beef inflation is sticky, while egg prices have cooled.
Egg prices are back to pre-crisis levels.
Meanwhile.
Related:
12-Year Cattle Cycle Bottoms: Tyson CEO Predicts Rebuild Phase Beginning Next Year
Tyson Foods Confirms Protein Switching Underway Amid Record High Beef Prices
Cattle Herd Rebuild Begins Just As Consumers Get Slaughtered By Record Beef Prices
The next cattle herd rebuild cycle must bring small, family-run ranchers back into the fold if America wants a resilient domestic beef supply.
Supporting independent journalism goes hand in hand with supporting independent ranchers - both make this nation stronger.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 06:55With Venezuela President Maduro stating the country is readying for an "armed struggle", President Trump has unleashed hell on a second vessel ferrying drugs from Venezuela, confirming his determination to proceed with attacks.
US forces “conducted a SECOND Kinetic Strike against positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists” in the US Southern Command’s area of responsibility, Trump wrote in a social media post.
“The Strike occurred while these confirmed narcoterrorists from Venezuela were in International Waters transporting illegal narcotics (A DEADLY WEAPON POISONING AMERICANS!) headed to the U.S.”
Trump continued:
"These extremely violent drug trafficking cartels POSE A THREAT to U.S. National Security, Foreign Policy, and vital U.S. Interests.
The Strike resulted in 3 male terrorists killed in action.
No U.S. Forces were harmed in this Strike.
The post included a link to a video that showed a vessel rolling in the waves in unidentified waters. After several seconds it is consumed by a massive fireball.
. @POTUS “This morning, on my Orders, U.S. Military Forces conducted a SECOND Kinetic Strike against positively identified, extraordinarily violent drug trafficking cartels and narcoterrorists in the SOUTHCOM area of responsibility. The Strike occurred while these confirmed… pic.twitter.com/KQYiEpqsGb
— DOW Rapid Response (@DOWResponse) September 15, 2025
Trump concluded with a warning:
"BE WARNED — IF YOU ARE TRANSPORTING DRUGS THAT CAN KILL AMERICANS, WE ARE HUNTING YOU!
The illicit activities by these cartels have wrought DEVASTATING CONSEQUENCES ON AMERICAN COMMUNITIES FOR DECADES, killing millions of American Citizens.
NO LONGER.
Thank you for your attention to this matter!!!”
Just hours earlier, Maduro reiterated that recent incidents between his country and the United States are an "aggression" by the U.S., not tensions between the two countries, and that there is no communication between the governments.
Also on Sunday Trump while talking to reporters in Morristown, New Jersey, suggested he would not rule out strikes on mainland Venezuela, amid speculation that Maduro could at some point retaliate in some form.
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"We'll see what happens," Trump said. "Venezuela is sending us their gang members, their drug dealers, and drugs. It's not acceptable."
Just as the second Monday strike was being widely reported, The Intercept issued some new information concerning the first strike, which occurred on September 2:
Last Tuesday, senior staff from House leadership and relevant committees were barred by the Office of the Secretary of War from attending a briefing on the first attack, according to three government sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The military cited “alternative compensatory control measures” — the term for enhanced security procedures designed to keep information under wraps — as the reason.
The War Department has attempted to conceal numerous details about the attack that killed 11 people in the Caribbean, including the fact that the vessel altered its course and appeared to have turned back toward shore prior to the strikes. Men on board were said to have survived an initial strike, The Intercept reported last week. They were then killed shortly after in a follow-up attack.
If this continues to escalate, and it looks to - given this latest strike, there will be serious questions raised about Congressional involvement - especially if limited briefings are only happening after the fact. For example, it is only now belatedly emerging that the first strike came from a drone attack, according to one of the lone Congressional dissenters, Republican Rep. Rand Paul.
"A very small number of Senate and House staffers, mostly from the Armed Services committees, received highly classified briefings about the attack last Tuesday, after the military delayed the meeting for days," The Intercept detailed further. "Staff for key members of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee, which oversee war powers, were conspicuously absent."
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 06:55Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
Turkish media recently claimed that Russia offered to buy back their country’s S-400s that it received in 2019 in order to then resell them to other clients, which Turkiye is supposedly receptive to since it wants to end its spat with the US over this and is also developing a domestic analogue that can replace them.
Polish media added that “Ankara still does not actively use them. They were never integrated into NATO, their missiles are already halfway through their shelf life, and maintenance costs pose a burden”.
Meanwhile, Indian media suggested that this deal could result in their country finally receiving its delayed S-400s, which would first have to be upgraded by Russia. While neither Russia nor Turkiye have confirmed this report, it’s sensible enough to be taken seriously for the time being at least. Russia can’t spare any S-400s from the front for export, Turkiye has since largely reconciled with the US and no longer needs the S-400s either, while India is eager to receive more of these systems as soon as possible.
Each corresponding party’s interests are more urgent than ever because:
Russia needs to regain its rapidly declining role in the global arms market after most of its production has been redirected from export to the front since 2022;
the new TRIPP Corridor creates the basis for a US-Turkish military-strategic partnership along Russia’s entire southern periphery so long as the S-400-related US sanctions are first lifted;
and spring’s Indo-Pak clashes made air defense a renewed priority for Delhi.
The original goal behind Turkiye’s import of the S-400s is no longer relevant either. Back then, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan deeply distrusted the US due to its (at minimum indirect) role in summer 2016’s failed coup, hence why he agreed to this air defense deal a year later. Turkiye was also very displeased with direct US military support for Ankara-designated Kurdish terrorists in Syria. After TRIPP and Jolani’s/Sharaa’s rise to power, however, the aforesaid imperatives became outdated for the most part.
The stage is therefore set for a grand deal between the US, Turkiye, Russia, and India, at least in theory and only tacitly in the case of the US-Russia, US-India, and Turkiye-India, but it remains to be seen whether it’ll materialize.
There are some forces that might torpedo it though, chiefly hardliners in the US and Russia, who might respectively object to the principle of a NATO ally selling military equipment back to Moscow and Russia buying back a weapons system that it sold to a NATO ally who now funds Ukraine.
Each side’s hardliners would therefore have to be sidelined in order for this deal to go through and it can’t be assumed that both Trump and Putin are able to do so in the current political conditions amidst escalating US-Russian tensions.
Furthermore, the US is also taking a hard line against India nowadays led by Trump personally, which reduces the odds that it would agree to have Turkiye indirectly supply India with Russia’s S-400s after Trump just punitively tariffed India for continuing to buy Russian arms.
Accordingly, while the details of this proposed arrangement make perfect sense with respect to each side’s interests as explained, political factors vis-à-vis the calculations of American and Russian hardliners could ultimately ruin any possibility for such a deal.
If the political will exists at each of those two’s highest levels, however, then it’s recommended that they encourage their media surrogates to articulate the inherent strategic benefits in order to help persuade the hardliners to reconsider their resistance.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 06:30The prices of metals reflect a contrast between rarity, utility, and value.
This visualization, via Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti, breaks down how much of each metal you could purchase with $10,000, showing their respective weights in kilograms.
At one end of the scale, $10,000 barely buys a handful of gold dust. On the other, it secures literal tons of industrial metals like aluminum and zinc.
The data for this visualization comes from Daily Metal Prices.
Precious Metals: Small in Size, Big in ValueGold tops the chart in value, costing over $108 million per metric ton. That means $10,000 only gets you 92 grams, barely more than a chocolate bar.
Platinum and palladium are slightly less expensive but still highly valuable, offering just a few hundred grams per $10,000. These metals are prized for their rarity, beauty, and industrial applications, especially in electronics and catalytic converters.
Industrial Metals: Value in VolumeOn the opposite end are base metals like aluminum, zinc, and copper. These materials are far more abundant and are critical to infrastructure and manufacturing. For example, with $10,000, you could buy 3,815 kilograms of aluminum, enough to construct dozens of bicycles. Even copper, a more valuable industrial metal, yields over a metric ton for the same amount of money.
Strategic and Emerging MaterialsIn between are metals like lithium and nickel, which are crucial to green technologies, batteries, and energy systems. Lithium, priced at nearly $12,000 per ton, yields 838 kg for $10,000, while nickel provides 667 kg.
If you enjoyed today’s post, check out Charted: Where the U.S. Gets Its Rare Earths From on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 05:45Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,
Risk spreads in France have continued to ease back on a trend basis, even after Fitch’s downgrade on Friday.
However, some spreads remain elevated in absolute terms, indicating the market continues to price in structural problems.
As a reminder that agencies’ ratings changes are lagging, French bond spreads and asset swap spreads are slightly tighter today after Fitch’s downgrade of French government debt to A+ from AA- on Friday.
A holistic measure of market-based French risk spreads, in the chart below, shows it is back to its one-year average.
However, the measure is on a trend basis.
In absolute terms, some risk spreads, such as the French-German bond spread and the asset swap spread, remain wide.
What that tells us is that risk is no longer acute, but it remains chronic.
Spreads will not significantly decline until there is clear progress in reducing the deficit.
France may have got a pass from the bond market for now, but it’s still in a fix.
That clemency will be reassuring to other countries such as the UK, yet what happens in the EU’s second largest economy will still be consequential for developed bond markets around the world.
Tyler Durden Tue, 09/16/2025 - 05:00
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