Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 223K initial claims.

• Also at 8:30 AM, Employment Report for September.   The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.3%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for November. The consensus is for a reading of 2.0, up from -12.8.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for November.

Aleksandra Sagan of The Logic reports B.C. pension fund manager creates joint venture to use quantum tech for better investing:

British Columbia Investment Management Corp. said Monday it has joined forces with Quantum Algorithms Institute, a B.C.-based non-profit working to accelerate the adoption of quantum technologies. CEO Gordon J. Fyfe said QAI will help it “prepare for the risks and opportunities ahead.” (The Logic)

Talking point: The two will identify ways to optimize BCI’s portfolio, risk assessment and financial modelling with quantum technologies, as well as improve security standards. The latter has been a focus for BCI for some time. BCI said in its most recent annual report that it is “preparing… to be post-quantum ready, ensuring our data and systems remain secure.” BCI, which manages investments for 32 public sector clients such as pension funds, has $295 billion in gross assets under management, according to its most recent annual report. It has invested in quantum tech previously, backing B.C.-based Photonic Inc. since 2021. 

Bloomberg also covered this story here.

On Monday, BCI issued a press release to state that in has entered into a joint venture with QAI to be "post-quantum ready": 

Joint initiative reinforces British Columbia as a hub for quantum innovation in Canada 

VICTORIA, BC – November 17, 2025 – British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI), one of Canada’s largest institutional investors, and the Quantum Algorithms Institute (QAI), a non-profit organization supporting adoption of quantum technologies in British Columbia, today announced a joint initiative to advance post-quantum readiness.  

“Working with QAI gives us access to world-class quantum expertise as we prepare for the risks and opportunities ahead,” said Gordon J. Fyfe, Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer at BCI. “Quantum computing will impact how investors around the world protect systems and approach complex investment scenarios. We are positioning BCI to leverage this technology for business advantage as it becomes more widely available.” 

Together, BCI and QAI will work to identify quantum investment applications for portfolio optimization, risk assessment, and financial modeling, while implementing post-quantum security standards to support BCI’s long-term operational resilience. QAI will use the insights gained through this hands-on experience to support quantum preparedness across British Columbia and Canada’s business ecosystems.  

“With quantum computers expected to be commercially viable within three to five years, this collaboration will offer critical learnings that extend beyond BCI,” said Louise Turner, Chief Executive Officer of QAI. “We’re developing playbooks and use cases that can help other organizations – from governments to small businesses – build their own quantum readiness.” 

BCI’s quantum experience extends beyond operations to its global portfolio. This includes investments like Photonic Inc., a British Columbia-based quantum computing company backed since 2021, which offered early insight into the technology’s evolution and commercial potential. The joint initiative with QAI builds on this strong foundation and BCI’s broader commitment to accelerating innovation.  

I suggest you visit Quantum Algorithms Institute's site to understand what they are doing and how they can help BCI improve its investment operations, bolster its investment and operational risk management. 

Before you dismiss this as a bunch of quantum computing malarkey which admittedly was my first impulse, I invite you to read this KPMG insight paper on data safety in the quantum computing age:

Today’s world runs on data, from emails and passwords to financial and medical records, from factories, schools and armies to energy grids and telecommunications networks. And encryption protects this data, preventing criminals and hackers and other bad actors from getting their hands on this precious resource.

While cracking encryption would take a traditional computer billions of years, with the emergence of quantum computing these codes could potentially be broken in hours. It is possible that encrypted data may have already been stolen, with the anticipation that in the next decade or so, quantum computers might be able to decrypt this information. That’s a concerning prospect when you consider that certain types of data should be kept secure for many years or decades. These include health records and financial information, defense designs, autonomous systems and critical infrastructure, like payment systems, telecommunications and energy supply.

Misuse of data has a real-world impact on people. When hackers are able to steal individuals’ identities to misdirect payments (such as house deposits or salaries), apply for credit cards or passports, or file for government benefits, the impacts to respective financial systems could stretch to trillions of dollars. Organizations could fall prey to phishing and malware attacks, leading to business interruption, ransoms and negative publicity.

This is not a future problem but an immediate issue. On the one hand, numerous governments, companies and researchers are racing to scale up their quantum computing systems, with many technology companies producing quantum roadmaps towards large, error-corrected quantum computers. On the other hand, these organizations are also seeking smart ways to make it harder to crack encryption, by producing quantum-safe cryptosystems. Nor is it just a technological threat; there are likely to be regulations that could leave organizations facing penalties for failing to meet encryption standards, as well as being locked out of defense, national security, health and government contracts, as procurement requirements are updated.

In the US, for example, the Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness Actopens in a new tab requires federal government agencies to “adopt technology that will protect against quantum computing attacks.”1 The Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) has updated its guidelines for cryptography and information security.2,3 And in February 2025, Europol hosted a Quantum Safe Financial Forum (QSFF) event, calling on financial institutions and policymakers to prioritize the transition to quantum-safe cryptography.4 Which has been followed by a European Commission transition timeline for critical infrastructure, starting in 2026 and to be completed by 2030.5 As quantum computing evolves, and the cyber threat increases, we can expect to see an increase in industry-specific frameworks, regulations, and best practice guidelines.

Creating a quantum-resilient organization

Encryption is typically implemented by internal IT teams, cloud and software providers. However, despite being totally reliant on encryption, many organizations know relatively little about how and where the data they use is encrypted. This magnifies the challenge of quantum resilience, which now calls for an understanding of both your own cryptographic implementation as well as all dependent systems.

To protect against quantum cyber risk, organizations should adopt post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms, which resist the efforts of powerful quantum computers. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has already made such algorithms available. Transitioning to PQC is a major effort over several years, involving the entire enterprise — not just IT — preferably overseen by a cross-organizational encryption leader.

PQC algorithms would need to be implemented in various software solutions, including key libraries, digital signatures and authentication. Given the scale of the task, it’s important to broaden cyber expertise, plan budgets, and empower teams to manage this increasing risk, as part of a multi-year transition effort.

Organizations should aim to build a cryptographic bill of materials (CBOM), to better understand what encryption is being used, and where. The CBOM lists all the cryptographic assets employed across software (including software-as-a-service), services, and infrastructure — within the enterprise and across the supply chain. It’s also vital to assess the level of risk of each asset, to prioritize high-value data — which varies between sectors. For consumer companies, for example, customer data is paramount; in life sciences, intellectual property is especially valuable. Other organizations may be keen to protect financial, operational, and employee information.

These key efforts support the development of a roadmap for discovery, assessment, management, remediation and monitoring the transition to quantum resilience, and coping with ongoing risk. This requires coordination across the IT estate. With so many players involved in encryption, contractual agreements with third parties should specify appropriate levels of quantum cybersecurity and clarify how the PQC transition can be harmonized. Procurement strategies, whether for devices or software, should also be updated to include quantum-resistant technologies, so that these IT investments can support PQC requirements during their lifetime.

As is already the case it's vital to review data retention policies, to reduce the time that sensitive data is stored and only retain data that’s absolutely necessary, while deleting data no longer needed. To maintain operational continuity, organizations should make appropriate enhancements to security controls (based upon their unique risk profile) to integrate PQC, and to select and test quantum-safe, cryptographically agile solutions in their IT infrastructure, ahead of full deployment.

Get started

It is not yet a full quantum computing world, but it soon will be. As they prepare to adopt PQC, IT leaders should be aware that this is not a standalone project but a transition to a new business-as-usual. It will take several years and impact the entire enterprise, calling for multiple internal and external stakeholders to build a willing coalition. With bad actors always seeking to find ways to break encryption, organizations should continually re-evaluate their defenses. Getting started now, with a carefully managed plan for PQC transition, can help to keep one step ahead, maintain resilience and operations, with safe, secure, data. 

What this tells me is quantum computing is already here, you need to prepare for consequences, thinking strategically to play good defence and offence (seizing opportunities as they arise).

Will BCI's joint venture with QAI make it quantum prepared? I have no idea, at least they got the ball rolling here and other large pension funds will surely follow.

Lastly, if BCI can afford quantum computing, it can afford to pay its tab for Pension Pulse (just sayin').

Below,  within a decade, quantum computers will be able to break virtually any encryption algorithm in use today. What used to be science fiction is on its way to becoming a commercial reality. Once that happens, quantum computers will be able to crack in minutes what was supposed to be unbreakable for more than a century using the most powerful computers available. 

Erik Wood, senior director of cryptography and product security at Infineon, talks about cryptographically relevant computers, how they work, and how that will affect computer architectures and chip design  

Heart Attack Risk Halved In Survivors Taking Tailored Vitamin D Doses, Researchers Say

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Researchers found that adult heart attack survivors who took specific vitamin D doses reduced their risk of developing another heart attack by more than half, compared with people who did not take the vitamin D dose.

A man sits in a hospital waiting room in Irvine, Calif., on July 8, 2025. John Fredricks/The Epoch Times

Research done by Utah-based Intermountain Health found that there was a 52 percent lower risk of suffering another heart attack in people who already survived one and who received “personalized dosing of vitamin D supplements” to reach vitamin D levels of 40 nanograms per milliliter for around four years, said a news release from the American Heart Association (AHA).

That was compared to those who did not receive management of their vitamin D levels, the AHA said.

Over 85 percent of the people who enrolled in the study had vitamin D levels below that threshold, while nearly 52 percent in the study group had to take more than 5,000 international units (IU) of vitamin D per day to reach the blood target levels, the Nov. 9 release said. The 5,000 IU dose is around six times the 800 IU that is recommended by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) per day.

*  *  *

Yes, we sell Vitamin D which we'd be grateful if you'd try - though whether or not you buy from us, please absorb the information in this article.

*  *  *

“Previous clinical trial research on vitamin D tested the potential impact of the same vitamin D dose for all participants without checking their blood levels first,” Heidi T. May of Intermountain Health said in an AHA statement.

The researchers also checked the study participants’ vitamin D levels when they started the study, followed up, adjusting the dose as needed to reach a range of between 40 and 80 nanograms per milliliter, the statement said.

The authors of the paper suggested that their findings could allow health care providers to focus more on blood testing for people who had experienced heart attacks and to provide tailored doses for them.

While the AHA did not say what form of vitamin D was administered in the study, a separate news release issued by Intermountain Health said that the researchers used vitamin D3, the most common form used in dietary supplements.

In the statement, May said the researchers “observed no adverse outcomes when giving patients higher doses of vitamin D3 supplementation, and to significantly reduce the risk of another heart attack, which are exciting results.”

The study was presented at the American Heart Association Scientific Sessions 2025 in New Orleans earlier this month. It enrolled 630 adults with acute coronary syndrome who were treated at the Intermountain Medical Center in Salt Lake City from April 2017 to May 2023 and who had an average follow-up of 4.2 years for their condition.

The AHA said that around 107 major cardiac events, such as a heart attack, stroke, heart failure that required hospitalization, or death, occurred in the study period.

The paper released this month adds to a growing body of research around vitamin D supplementation and heart disease. Last year, a study found that taking vitamin D supplements doesn’t reduce the risk of cardiac arrest in older adults, while one published in the British Medical Journal showed there was an association between the supplements and major cardiac events among people over the age of 60.

Aside from supplements, foods that are considered rich in vitamin D include egg yolks, fatty fish, fish liver oil, and cheese, while some foods like cereal, orange juice, milk, and others are fortified with the vitamin. Vitamin D is also activated in the body when the skin is exposed to sunlight.

May added that her organization is encouraging those who have heart disease to speak to health care providers about targeted vitamin D dosing.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 18:25

Watchdog: Chicago Public Schools Blew Millions On Trips, Spas, And Overseas Travel

A new investigation by Chicago Public Schools Inspector General Philip Wagenknecht shows overnight and travel spending in the district surged from about $300,000 in 2021 to nearly $8 million by 2024, according to WTTW.

His report says some staff exploited the district’s “lax, vague, inadequate and unenforced” rules, leading to “exorbitant” post-pandemic travel funded by taxpayers.

The OIG found CPS spent roughly $14.5 million on travel in 2023 and 2024, much of it for out-of-town conferences or overnight student trips.

WTTW writes that the probe began after an elementary school paid more than $20,000 for a staff trip to Egypt without approval; CPS canceled that trip and two others. Investigators later identified more than $142,000 spent by eight schools on overseas travel — including visits to Egypt, Finland, Estonia and South Africa — that featured “tourist activities of debatable value” such as camel rides, a game park visit and hot air balloon rides.

The report also highlighted Las Vegas conferences where more than 600 employees spent over $1.5 million between 2022 and 2024. One principal booked an unapproved $400-a-night suite for himself and his wife.

According to the report, “Nearly 90% of CPS attendees stayed in hotel rooms that exceeded CPS spending limits, and at least two dozen took round-trip Chicago-Las Vegas flights costing more than $1,000,” noting that when the same conference was held in Chicago, attendance was minimal.

The OIG urged CPS to keep seminars local, stating, “Rather than spend millions on professional development at resort spas, luxury hotels and overseas destinations, CPS should keep its educational seminars as close to home as possible.”

CPS has since restricted nearly all employee travel (as of Oct. 29) and created a Travel Review Committee. A spokesperson said the district takes the findings seriously, adding, “Chicago Public Schools remains unwavering in its commitment to fiscal responsibility and the success of our students,” and that CPS is committed “to protect our investments and resources.” The district said new financial systems should strengthen oversight.

Reiterating its mission, CPS stated, “The core mission of CPS is clear: to provide every student with a high-quality, rigorous, inclusive, and enriching education… and to reduce expenditures in a sustainable way.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 18:00

Trump Names Saudi Arabia A 'Major Non-NATO Ally' During MbS Candlelight Dinner Attended By Tech Moguls 

Aside from a couple of hiccups involving exchanges with the press, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's (MbS) visit to the White House went well, after he came bearing massive gifts, especially a pledge for a whopping $1 trillion in US investment.

During the Tuesday night candlelight dinner in his honor, which was attended by Elon Musk, Tim Cook, Jensen Huang, Cristiano Ronaldo, the head of FIFA Gianni Infantino - and many other tech moguls and notable figures - President Trump took the opportunity to proclaim for the first time Saudi Arabia as a "major non-NATO ally" (MNNA).

Via Reuters

This was based on the signing of a new security pact with MbS, called the US-Saudi Strategic Defense Agreement (SDA), during the earlier Oval Office visit.

"At tonight’s dinner, I’m happy to share that we are elevating our military partnership by officially naming Saudi Arabia a major non-NATO ally," Trump said.

This newly designated status will give the kingdom preferential access to US military hardware, which as Trump also unveiled will include sales of F-35 fighter jets and 300 US-manufactured tanks.

To some degree the US-Saudi oil for weapons relationship has been cemented institutionally going all the way back to the 1970s, but talk of nuclear energy - and even the US providing a potential nuclear nuclear security umbrella - represents an escalation in strategic closeness and relations.

As part of this, the White House is further describing this as the "legal foundation for a decades-long, multi-billion-dollar nuclear energy partnership."

But what else does the United States (and Israel) get out of this? MbS appears to now be 'cooperating' on a years-long effort for normalization of ties with Israel, after diplomacy was stalled for two years amid the Gaza War.

The crown prince told reporters, "We want to join the Abraham Accords, but we also need a clear pathway to a two-state solution."

"We had a constructive discussion with the president, and we’re going to work together to create the right conditions as soon as possible," he added.

 As expected, all is well again despite years of Saudi Arabia being under a limited (and in reality somewhat mild) human rights spotlight:

The red carpet welcome for Prince Mohammed is an extraordinary moment in diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia. It is his first visit to the United States since the 2018 killing of the Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi, which U.S. intelligence determined the prince ordered. Prince Mohammed has denied involvement.

After Mr. Khashoggi’s murder, some Western business executives and government officials backed out of Saudi Arabia’s global investment conference, including leaders of major American financial institutions. But by the following year, top deal makers were back at the event in Riyadh, the Saudi capital.

Via Reuters

But apparently there's nothing that Saudi petro-billions (or now Trillion) can't fix - it covers a multitude of sins, and elites had already been flocking back to doing business with Riyadh over the last years.

Families of the victims of the 9/11 terror attacks aren't happy either, given the mounting evidence of Saudi Arabia's role in that as well. But America has a short memory and attention-span, apparently. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 17:40

Ackman Floats "Immediately Actionable" Blueprint To Free Fannie And Freddie

Bill Ackman thinks he knows what to do to finally resolve the 16-year limbo trapping Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - the mortgage-finance pillars that remain under federal control over a decade after the financial crisis.

In a Tuesday presentation on X, the billionaire founder of Pershing Square Capital Management outlined a three-step proposal he says would meet the Trump administration's policy goals, while restoring the companies to private-market discipline. The plan comes amid the White House's struggle to ease housing costs - which included an absurd idea to roll out 50-year mortgages. 

The two government-sponsored entities (GSEs) underpin roughly half of America's $12 trillion mortgage market. They don't lend directly - rather, they purchase mortgages from banks and lenders, package them into securities and guarantee investors against losses. This system helps keep credit flowing through economic cycles. 

Pershing is the largest common shareholder in the two companies with over 210 million total shares. 

Ackman has long argued that the government's post-crisis control of the two companies which was formalized in a 2008 conservatorship was intended to be temporary, but has dragged on for years beyond its stated purpose. 

He proposes the following as an "immediately actionable" roadmap for the Treasury and Federal Housing Finance Agency, which regulates the GSEs. 

Step one: Acknowledge the bailout is repaid.

Fannie and Freddie received $187 billion in Treasury support during the crisis. Ackman noted the GSEs have since sent “hundreds of billions” in profits to the federal government through quarterly “net worth sweeps,” far exceeding the original rescue. He urged Treasury and FHFA to formally declare the obligation satisfied—a move that would mark a symbolic break from the financial-crisis era.

Step two: Make taxpayers official owners.

As part of the 2008 rescue, Treasury received warrants to buy up to 79.9% of each company’s common stock at a nominal price. Exercising those warrants, Ackman said, would convert taxpayers’ implicit economic stake into a formal controlling interest—an unusual structure that would leave the U.S. government the majority owner of two publicly traded financial institutions.

Step three: Return the GSEs to the stock market.

Fannie and Freddie were delisted from the New York Stock Exchange after entering conservatorship. Ackman said the companies now meet listing requirements and that relisting would restore liquidity for investors, broaden ownership, and help recapitalize the firms. He argued that with taxpayer ownership approaching 80%, the resulting equity value could exceed $300 billion.

The proposal intersects with a broader debate over the future of U.S. housing finance - a politically delicate realm that has eluded reform under multiple administrations. Supporters of privatization say the GSEs should operate with market discipline and adequate capital so taxpayers are insulated from future downturns. Critics warn that premature release or inadequate safeguards could encourage the kind of risk-taking that contributed to the 2008 collapse.

https://t.co/fGD58qrBp8

— Bill Ackman (@BillAckman) November 18, 2025

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 17:20

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.

From the AIA: ABI October 2025: Billings continue to decline at architecture firms

The ABI score of 47.6 for October indicates that fewer firms reported declining billings this month than in September, when the score was 43.3. In addition, inquiries into new projects increased significantly this month, with the largest share of firms in a year and a half reporting an increase. On the other hand, the value of newly signed design contracts decreased yet again, as projects remain smaller and clients remain hesitant to commit.

Billings softened at firms in all regions of the country in October, except for those in the Midwest, where they were essentially flat for the second consecutive month. Business conditions remained softest at firms located in the West, while the pace of the decline in billings held steady at firms located in the Northeast. Firms located in the South saw conditions weaken further this month, after approaching growth over the summer. The billings decline also accelerated this month at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization, returning to levels seen at the beginning of the year after approaching growth in the third quarter. And conditions remain soft overall at firms with institutional and multifamily residential specializations.
...
The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months.
emphasis added

• Northeast (45.1); Midwest (49.6); South (45.3); West (42.1)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (46.6); institutional (46.3); multifamily residential (46.8)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 47.6 in October, up from 43.3 in September.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.
This index has indicated contraction for 35 of the last 37 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026.
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 39 consecutive months.  This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.

Venezuela's Maduro Seeks 'Face-to-Face Talks' With Trump Officials 

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro made clear early this week that he'd be willing to hold "face-to-face" talks with US officials and warned President Trump against starting a war with his country.

"In the United States, whoever wants to talk with Venezuela will talk, face to face, without any problem," Maduro said on his weekly TV program, comments that came after Trump suggested that his administration "may" be holding talks with the Venezuelan government.

Via CBS

But Trump also told reporters on Monday that he wouldn’t rule out sending troops into Venezuela, and the major US military buildup in the Caribbean continues. Maduro said that if Trump ordered military strikes on Venezuela, it would be the "biggest mistake of his life."

Maduro suggested that political factions within the US are trying to hurt Trump before the 2026 congressional elections by pressuring him on the Jeffrey Epstein scandal and pushing him to go to war with Venezuela. "They want President Trump to attack Venezuela militarily, which would be the end of his political leadership and his name," the Venezuelan leader said, according to the Miami Herald.

Maduro has previously focused his criticism on Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has been leading the push toward war with Venezuela.

"Mr. President Donald Trump, you have to be careful because Marco Rubio wants your hands stained with blood, with South American blood, Caribbean blood, Venezuelan blood," Maduro told reporters when the US began its bombing campaign against alleged drug boats in the region.

Following the first US strikes on boats in the region, Maduro sent a letter to Trump urging for diplomacy and stating his readiness to talk with Trump’s special envoy, Ric Grennel, who met directly with the Venezuelan leader back in January.

Despite the US push toward war, Venezuela has still been cooperating on deportation flights from the US. Between March and mid-October, the US conducted 40 removal flights to Caracas, deporting about 8,000 Venezuelan nationals.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 17:00

"GPUs Are Sold Out": Nvidia Soars After Blowing Away Results, Projections

In our preview of NVDA's Q3 results, we said that "it's not a question whether the company beats - they always do - but whether the "blowout" and the "smash" will be big enough to impress a market that has already priced in perfection, and beyond, for the GPU maker."

The market was impressed.

Here is what NVDA just reported for Q3: 

• Adjusted EPS $1.30, beating estimates of $1.24
• Revenue $57.01 billion, up +62% y/y, beating estimate $55.19 billion, and up $3BN vs guidance
  • Data center revenue $51.2 billion, +66% y/y, beating estimate $49.34 billion
  • Gaming revenue $4.3 billion, +30% y/y, missing estimate $4.42 billion
  • Professional Visualization revenue $760 million, +56% y/y, beating estimate $612.8 million
  • Automotive revenue $592 million, +32% y/y, missing estimate $620.9 million
• Adjusted operating income $37.75 billion, +62% y/y, estimate $36.46 billion
• Adjusted operating expenses $4.22 billion, +38% y/y, estimate $4.22 billion
  • Adjusted gross margin 73.6%, missing est 74.0% and down from 75.0% a year ago. 
• R&D expenses $4.71 billion, +39% y/y, estimate $4.66 billion
• Free cash flow $22.09 billion, +32% y/y

And visually, the stunning fact here is that Data Center rose $10BN sequentially, and up 66% YoY.

Naturally, since NVidia's revenue is hyperscalar capex, the company has a "little" revenue concentration risk. For Q3, four direct customers with sales greater than 10% of total revenue included: 

• Customer A at 22% 
• Customer B at 15% 
• Customer C at 13% 
• Customer D at 11%

While there were some blemishes across the various segments, most notably gaming and automotive revenue which missed, these are negligible for the company considering its Data Centers revenue was a whopping $51.2BN, up 66% YoY, and smashing estimates of $49.3BN by nearly $2BN.

Going down the income statement, the one item that jumps out as not being significantly better than estimates was gross margin. Nvidia said it’s rolling out new chips and new systems and that’s pushing up the company’s costs compared with a year ago. That said, as the ramp of Blackwell picks up sequentially, so are its margins. More importantly, the company's guidance (see below) should ease concerns here.

And if historicals were impressive, the outlook was even more blowout:

• Revenue is expected to be $65.0 billion, plus or minus 2% (i.e. $63.70 billion to $66.30 billion) , smashing expectations of $61.98BN (although there were some buyside bogeys as high as $75BN which means that Huang is likely sandbagging again).
• Gross margins (GAAP and non-GAAP) are expected to be 74.8% and 75.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points.
• Operating expenses (GAAP and non-GAAP) are expected to be approximately $6.7 billion and $5.0 billion, respectively.

Commenting on the quarter, CEO Jensen Huang said that “Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out. Compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference — each growing exponentially. We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI. The AI ecosystem is scaling fast — with more new foundation model makers, more AI startups, across more industries, and in more countries. AI is going everywhere, doing everything, all at once.”

Kunjan Sobhani, a senior technology analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, also chimes in: "With a broadening AI infrastructure build-out and improving supply alignment, clarity on the $500 billion pipeline through fiscal 2027, large-scale expansion deals and competitive options will be key for sustaining sentiment"

While normally nobody looks at Nvidia’s balance sheet, maybe it's time to start, as it is only getting stronger. NVDA ended the quarter with $60.6 billion of cash and equivalents, so "only" $320BN away from Berkshire. So it still has plenty of room to fund the adoption of AI in new parts of the economy, as it’s indicated it will.

Investors’ initial reaction to Nvidia’s results -- including a big beat on its 4Q revenue guidance -- is good. Shares spiked more than 4% in postmarket trading.

This is important, because the fate of Nvidia’s stock determines the the AI trade, and the broader market: Nvidia holds the largest weighting in the S&P 500 Index - hangs heavily on how investors digest the results and commentary from the company.

Yet while Nvidia shares are sharply higher, the move reverses only part of a slump that saw the stock slip about 10% below a record high set at the end of October. 

In any case, Nvidia’s results are strong enough to also lift shares of other stocks tied to artificial intelligence in after-hours trading: shares of CoreWeave and Nebius are up 4%, AMD is up nearly 2%, Micron is up about 2% and Broadcom shares are moving higher as well.  

Goldman's James Schneider has just pushed out his first take: "Strong quarter with upside to guidance should provide relief for the stock." We excerpt the highlights from the note below (full report available to pro subs).

• Key stock takeaways: We expect the stock to trade higher following a stronger quarter and guidance relative to the Street, and against relatively balanced expectations heading into the quarter. We believe investor expectations had been somewhat elevated heading into the quarter, given upward CapEx revisions from hyperscalers, as well as Nvidia's own bullish 2026 outlook at GTC in late October. However, we believe the bar for stock performance has been lowered somewhat, with the stock pulling back ~6% ahead of the print. On the conference call, we expect investors to focus on : (1) incremental details on the company's recent $500 bn Datacenter revenue forecast; (2) visibility into OpenAI deployments; (3) the timing of the Rubin product launch in 2026.

In short: Nvidia just saved the possibility of a Christmas rally.

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

Also, grab a sweet knife (limited stock, almost sold out)

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 16:40

What We've Lost

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

What we've lost are the foundations of a healthy standard of living / quality of life.

Amidst the constant drumbeat of tech "progress" and grandiose "solutions," it's a useful exercise to ask: what have we lost in the past 40 years despite all the "progress" and "solutions"? Put another way: what did we have in 1985 that we no longer have, despite all the "progress"?

1. We no longer have affordable, functional healthcare. As I have documented, based on what I paid as an employer and self-employed worker, healthcare insurance was still affordable in 1985; this is no longer the case. By functional, I mean universally accessible and sustainable for those employed in healthcare.

Neither condition applies today. Financially marginalized Americans don't have the same access to the care that is available to wealthy Americans and those with gold-plated insurance. For many Americans, their access to care is little better (or worse) than low-income, developed-nation standards.

As for those working in healthcare, burnout and changing jobs to increase pay and reduce overwork are now standard features of frontline employment in healthcare.

2. Our collective health is systemically worse. These charts from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) tell the story: in 1985, relatively few Americans were classified as obese (BMI of 30 or higher). While BMI is not an ideal measure, moderate BMI levels reflect a lifestyle of moderate activity and relatively healthy diet. By 2023, the situation had deteriorated to the point that by more recent metrics, almost 80% of adult Americans are overweight/obese, conditions that generate a spectrum of health risks.

3. Our public infrastructure has crumbled even as our private wealth soared. Maybe the roadways and highways are pothole-free and well-maintained in your area, and public transit is clean, reliable and cheap, but as a general rule, public infrastructure has decayed over the the past 40 years to the point that it's often better in developing-world nations than in the US.

While our public infrastructure has decayed, private wealth has soared from $60 trillion in 2010 to $167 trillion in 2025. Measured by overall health and security, the top 10% are doing splendidly, having accumulated the majority of the $100 trillion in private wealth gains, while the bottom 60% are experiencing decay and decline.

4. Housing is no longer affordable. By any legitimate measure--for example, the number of hours of work needed to buy a median-priced house--housing is no longer affordable for the bottom 80% of the populace.

5. Moral decay has rotted the foundations of our society and economy. Self-interest is now the exclusive pursuit and measure of "success": consequences have no bearing on decisions unless they detract from one's private gains. Since a truthful accounting of consequences is detrimental to self-interest, artifice is now the norm. Authenticity has been replaced by curation--everything is gamed, massaged, managed to present a fake image or spectacle.

Here is a chart of healthcare insurance costs. This doesn't reflect the erosion of value generated by the expansion of co-pays, deductions and exclusions.

Here is the CDC map of obesity from 1985:

Here is the CDC map of obesity for 2023:

Private wealth has skyrocketed...

... but not everyone gained ground. As I have often noted, the bottom 50%'s share of household wealth has declined. Only the top tier benefited from The Everything Bubble.

Measured by wages, housing affordability is now worse than at the peak of the 2005-07 Housing Bubble #1.

As for moral decay, since honest appraisals are anathema, there will be no admission that the status quo is far more corrupt than it was in 1985. We all know it, but it cannot be admitted publicly, or ours is now a culture of excuses, prevarications, rationalizations, empty slogans, distractions and grandiose claims. The inability to admit that the status quo is corrupt is a measure of the depth of systemic moral decay.

What we've lost are the foundations of a healthy standard of living / quality of life.

*  *  *

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Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 16:20

As reported by the House Committee on Ways and Means on October 3, 2025

Larry Summers Resigns From OpenAI Board; Harvard Launches Investigation After Epstein Revelations

Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers has resigned from the board of OpenAI following the release of messages in which Summers was asking Jeffrey Epstein for dating advice to try and bed a female mentee whose father was a former CCP official. 

Then-Harvard President Lawrence H. Summers speaks at the University's 2004 Commencement ceremony. Summers recently retracted from public engagements after his emails with sex offender Jeffrey Epstein were released. By Crimson Multimedia Staff

On Monday Summers announced that he would be stepping back from all public commitments - and while he said he would continue to teach at Harvard, his office appeared to be gone Monday evening. 

"In line with my announcement to step away from my public commitments, I have also decided to resign from the board of OpenAI," Summers told Axios. "I am grateful for the opportunity to have served, excited about the potential of the company and look forward to following their progress."  

Over 20,000 documents were released last week by the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee from Epstein's estate. 

Summers, a known longtime associate of Epstein, joined the board of OpenAI in 2023 during a brief period in which CEO Sam Altman was ousted from the company - only to return days later. Summers was appointed alongside Bret Taylor, former Salesforce CEO, and Quora CEO Adam D'Angelo - the only member of OpenAI's initial board who still had a seat. 

In a statement, OpenAI said "Larry has decided to resign from the OpenAI Board of Directors, and we respect his decision. We appreciate his many contributions and the perspective he brought to the Board."

Meanwhile, the Economic Club of New York postponed a discussion with Summers this week, hours after the Crimson published its article - telling FT that it was "postponed due to an unavoidable change in schedule. 

Harvard Investigates

According to the Harvard Crimson, the University will launch a new investigation into its ties to Epstein following the Summers scandal. The university had already conducted an investigation in 2020, in which they found that Epstein donated $9,179,000 across 22 'gifts', including a $736,000 donation after his 2006 arrest but before his 2008 conviction for sex trafficking a minor. 

Epstein was also a Visiting Fellow in the Psychology Department in the 2005-2006 academic year despite lacking academic qualifications typically possessed by Visiting Fellows. 

The new probe will cover any new information revealed in the new document dump, including hundreds of messages Summers and Epstein exchanged regarding women, politics, and Harvard-related initiatives. 

Several other prominent Harvard faculty also appeared in the documents, including Harvard Law School professor emeritus Alan M. Dershowitz and English professor emerita Elisa F. New, who is married to Summers, the Crimson reports. 

The cache of documents released last week added to a long paper trail detailing ties between Epstein and prominent Harvard affiliates.

In the documents, New discussed her personal projects at length with Epstein, soliciting thousands of dollars in funding from the child sex trafficker several times — years after Harvard said it had stopped taking contributions from Epstein.

In one 2014 exchange, New and Epstein discussed a potential $500,000 gift to Poetry in America, a television show and digital initiative she spearheaded. She also accepted an unspecified amount of money from Leon Black, an executive at private equity giant Apollo, in a gift that she wrote Epstein helped broker.

“It really means a lot to me, all financial help aside, Jeffrey, that you are rooting for me and thinking about me,” she wrote in December 2015.

So Epstein was advising Summers on how to cheat on his wife, while also discussing fundraising with said wife.

*  *  *

Grab a solid knife that was hand-made in the USA (limited stock, almost sold out)

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 16:12

Venezuela Sentences Doctor To 30 Years For WhatsApp Message

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Venezuelan socialist regime has just sentenced a 65-year-old doctor, Marggie Orozco, to 30 years in prison for criticizing the regime of socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro in a WhatsApp voice note in 2024.

Orozco was reportedly found guilty of “treason to the fatherland, incitement to hatred, and conspiracy” in complaining about the regime’s distribution of the often hard-to-find domestic gas cylinders in her community.

She has already suffered two heart attacks in the last two years, including one while in prison.

Some on the left, including members of the Chicago Teachers’ Union, have praised Venezuela despite being a brutal authoritarian regime.

This conviction was notably under the regime’s “anti-hate speech” law for those spreading “hateful content.”

As many in the West denounce this conviction, it is important to note that Western countries use the same ill-defined laws to punish citizens in their own countries for “inciting hatred” or spreading dangerous disinformation.

In the United Kingdom, a person was convicted for having “toxic ideologies.” A woman in the UK was arrested for silently praying near an abortion clinic.

Canada has used the same rationales as Russia for punishing its citizens for political views.

The difference appears not to be the limits on free speech but who is yielding these powers.

It is like arguing that your country may have the same authoritarian laws, but it is a benign authoritarianism.

If the Orozco case disgusts you, you should also be disgusted by Western countries and the European Union wielding the same powers.

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 15:25

As ordered reported by the House Committee on Ways and Means on September 17, 2025

As reported by the House Committee on Ways and Means on September 30, 2025

As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on October 21, 2025

As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs on July 30, 2025

'Massive Shift' In US-Korea Relations After Trump Gets Seoul To Stop Targeting Tech

Last month we noted that South Korea has been effectively running a racket to extract money from Big Tech through the Korea Fair Trade Commission (KFTC) - which, taking a note from the EU, has repeatedly targeted US firms with massive fines over various business practices. For years, the targeted industries have argued that Korean “network usage fees,” mandatory billing rules, app-store regulations, digital-platform laws, and privacy rulings were crafted to disadvantage foreign competitors while protecting national champions.

President Donald Trump walks with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung as they prepare to attend a bilateral lunch meeting at the Gyeongju National Museum on October 29, 2025 in Gyeongju, South Korea. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

The longstanding U.S. - Korea alliance has operated within a familiar structure: Washington provided unconditional military protection, while Seoul pursued autonomous industrial and regulatory policies - occasionally at the expense of U.S. firms. The KFTC in particular developed a reputation among American technology, pharmaceutical, and automotive companies as an aggressive, often unpredictable enforcer whose investigations and fines disproportionately targeted foreign market leaders. In sectors ranging from app stores to semiconductors, U.S. firms routinely complained of a regulatory process that lacked transparency, due-process standards, and basic recognition of attorney-client privilege.

In 2021, they fined Google $177 over alleged anti-competitive practices in Android licensing. In 2023,  Apple faced a $22 million fine for keeping developers in the Apple payment ecosystem. In 2024, the KFTC launched probes into Amazon and Google over alleged preferential treatment in online advertising and search results, which they said could disadvantage Korean firms. 

They've also targeted Qualcomm, Meta, Tesla and other US firms, leaving many wondering whether Korea's antitrust apparatus was deploying economic nationalism under the guise of competition enforcement. Investigations were often launched under political pressure, imposed fines were regularly among the highest in the world, and procedural protections were thin compared to OECD norms.

Not Anymore...

During President Donald Trump's October visit to the Republic of Korea, things were quickly straightened out. In a Nov. 13 press release, the White House writes:

“The United States and the ROK commit to ensure that U.S. companies are not discriminated against and do not face unnecessary barriers in laws and policies concerning digital services, including network usage fees and online platform regulations.”

So - Korea will need to keep their attack dog on a leash. To that end: 

“The ROK commits to provide additional procedural fairness provisions in competition proceedings, including the recognition of attorney-client privilege.”

This further neuters the KFTC, an institution that historically did not offer the evidentiary protections common in U.S. or EU jurisdictions. American companies have long complained that Korean antitrust proceedings allowed investigators access to internal legal communications - a structural disadvantage that no domestic firm in the United States or Europe would be forced to accept. 

As a member of the Trade Subcommittee, ensuring U.S. companies are treated fairly when operating abroad is crucial. That’s why I introduced bipartisan legislation addressing the Republic of Korea’s harmful digital trade barriers earlier this year.

I’m grateful to President…

— Rep. Carol Miller (@RepCarolMiller) November 18, 2025

Beyond the KFTC, Seoul’s commitments under the new Korea Strategic Trade and Investment framework seem like a great deal for America:

• $150 billion in U.S.-approved investments in shipbuilding

• $200 billion more under a coming MOU

• A $36 billion Boeing aircraft purchase

• $25 billion in U.S. defense acquisitions

• $33 billion in support for U.S. Forces Korea

While the US is no longer separating defense and economics - it's explicitly linking security cooperation to regulatory reciprocity, and makes clear that a strong alliance requires a fair economic relationship.

Carrot and Stick

Politico reports that if Korea walks away from the agreement, they could launch a '301 probe' 

According to three people close to the discussions who were granted anonymity to disclose private conversations, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and other administration officials have repeatedly warned they could launch a 301 probe if Seoul walks away from that particular part of the agreement.

Greer most recently issued that warning during discussions leading up to last month’s summit between Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, as South Korean negotiators hedged on proposals the U.S. believes would expose tech behemoths like Google, Apple and Meta to heavy fines. He also said something similar at a September meeting with South Korean Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo, the people said.

The pressure campaign is part of the administration’s wider effort to push back on foreign regulations aimed at reining in the power of large digital platforms — a model pioneered by the European Union and its Digital Markets Act. Last week, the Trump administration unveiled trade agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador and Ecuador that include requirements that those countries reject digital services taxes. 

That said, "Administration officials and U.S. tech industry allies are expressing confidence that Lee’s government won’t renege on that agreement."

"After all the hard work that went into last week’s trade deal, it’s unimaginable that Korean officials would let the KFTC move forward with legislation or regulatory actions that would blow everything up and inevitably lead back to higher tariffs and escalating tensions," one corporate lobbyist close to the White House told the outlet. 

A White House official told Politico that the possibility of a Section 301 "came up" during the talks, but that the US was not considering a "heavy-handed approach" at this time.

"The Koreans understood that tariffs are … a stick we carry," the official added. 

 

Meanwhile, after years of Washington blocking Seoul's ambitions for nuclear-powered attack subs, Trump gave them the green light.

A 3,000-ton diesel submarine during a ceremony to hand it over to the Navy, at the HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. in Ulsan, South Korea, in 2024.Credit...Yonhap/EPA, via Shutterstock

According to Trump's first National Security Advisor, Ambassador Robert O'Brien, "The US-ROK trade agreement signals a massive shift in how Korean officials are now expected to treat US firms. It officially recognizes the need to address a history of aggressive, discriminatory policies against American tech companies—including raids & unfounded criminal prosecutions. This deal should effectively kill any new legislation in Korea targeting online platforms, consistent with explicit warnings from President @realDonaldTrump."

The US-ROK trade agreement signals a massive shift in how Korean officials are now expected to treat US firms. It officially recognizes the need to address a history of aggressive, discriminatory policies against American tech companies—including raids & unfounded criminal…

— Robert C. O'Brien (@robertcobrien) November 17, 2025

There are still issues to be hammered out with the sub deal; where they'll be made and how to secure fuel for them considering Washington's longstanding stance on not allowing Seoul to enrich uranium or reprocess spent nuclear fuel (their 26 nuclear reactors are all powered by imported fuel). Seoul, however, wants to enrich uranium themselves to build its own fuel supply chain and bolster its energy security. 

Whatever happens with that, it's clear that Seoul is aligning its industrial future more tightly with the United States than at any point in modern history.

Korea has been officially put on notice. Treat American companies poorly, threaten our workers, raid our firms’ offices, and President Trump will push back.

It’s insane we’ve tolerated this kind of behavior from an ally, but even greater that the new trade deal KlLLS any… pic.twitter.com/7LnZCAthj0

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) November 16, 2025

 

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 15:05

FOMC Minutes Expose Fractured Fed; "Many" See No Tariff Inflation, "Several" Fear Disorderly Drop In Stocks

Since the last FOMC meeting (Oct 29th), gold is the best performing asset (along with the dollar) as bonds, stocks, and oil are all down notably...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut odds for the December meeting continued to tumble after Powell's hawkish comments (and the follow-up FedSpeak). Today saw BLS confirm no more payrolls data before the next Fed meeting and that pushed expectations even more hawkishly lower...

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, The Fed cut rates by 25bps in the October meeting to 3.75-4.00%, with two dissenters: 1 hawkish (Schmid) and 1 dovish (Miran). Other non-voters have been out recently suggesting they did not support a cut.

While markets have made up their minds on the rate-cut decision, as we noted earlier, we'll be watching for color on the hawk/dove split; but, most eyes will be on discussions around The Fed's balance sheet (the end of QT) and the level of reserves being somewhere between 'abundant' and 'ample'.

So, what does The Fed want us to know it was thinking during the meeting?

On the rate-cut decision, there is a hawkish bias ('Several' is less than 'many')

• *FED: `SEVERAL' SAID DECEMBER CUT `COULD WELL BE' APPROPRIATE

  • Several participants said another cut in December “could well be appropriate in December if the economy evolved about as they expected” before the next meeting.

• *FED: `MANY' SAW DECEMBER RATE CUT AS LIKELY NOT APPROPRIATE

  • “Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year,” the minutes said.

The doves are doing God's work on the jobs market...

"Most participants suggested that, in moving to a more neutral policy stance, the Committee was helping forestall the possibility of a major deterioration in labor market conditions."

But... the hawks are there too to warn you off...

"Most participants noted that, against a backdrop of elevated inflation readings and a very gradual cooling of labor market conditions, further policy rate reductions could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as implying a lack of policymaker commitment to the 2 percent inflation objective."

AI/Valuations are in the back of their minds...

Some participants commented on stretched asset valuations in financial markets, with several of these participants highlighting the possibility of a disorderly fall in equity prices, especially in the event of an abrupt reassessment of the possibilities of AI-related technology.

A couple of participants cited risks associated with high levels of corporate borrowing.

Finally, and perhaps the most notable line was with regard to inflation...

Simply put, the Minutes suggest that tariff inflation is no longer a pressing concern...

"Many of these participants also judged that, with more evidence having accumulated that the effect on overall inflation of this year’s higher tariffs would likely be limited, it was appropriate for the Committee to ease its policy stance in response to downside risks to employment."

...which helps explain why so "many" of The Fed are increasingly focused on jobs.

Full Breakdown:

On current outlook:

• Participants generally judged that upside risks to inflation remained elevated and that downside risks to employment were elevated and had increased since the first half of the year.

• Many participants agreed that the Committee should be deliberate in its policy decisions against the backdrop of these two-sided risks and reduced availability of key economic data.

• Most participants suggested that, in moving to a more neutral policy stance, the Committee was helping forestall the possibility of a major deterioration in labor market conditions.

• Many of these participants also judged that, with more evidence having accumulated that the effect on overall inflation of this year’s higher tariffs would likely be limited, it was appropriate for the Committee to ease its policy stance in response to downside risks to employment.

• Most participants noted that, against a backdrop of elevated inflation readings and a very gradual cooling of labor market conditions, further policy rate reductions could add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as implying a lack of policymaker commitment to the 2 percent inflation objective.

• Participants judged that a careful balancing of risks was required and agreed on the importance of well-anchored longer-term inflation expectations in achieving the Committee’s dual-mandate objectives.

On the neutral rate and financial conditions

• Some said policy would remain restrictive even after a 0.25ppt cut.

• Some, citing resilient activity, supportive conditions or real-rate estimates, said policy was not clearly restrictive.

• Some remarked that financial conditions we re supportive of activity.

On Inflation

• Participants noted inflation had moved up and remained somewhat above target; core inflation stayed elevated.

• Several said inflation excluding tariff effects was close to target.

• Many said inflation had been above target for some time with little sign of timely return to 2%.

• Most noted further rate cuts could add to risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched or could be misinterpreted as lack of commitment to 2% inflation objective

• Several cited persistent core non-housing services inflation as keeping inflation above 2%.

• Many expected further pickup in core goods inflation from tariff pass-through.

• Several highlighted uncertainty around tariff effects and firms' delayed pricing.

• Several reported businesses planned gradual price increases due to higher tariff-related input costs.

• A few said productivity gains via automation or AI could limit pass-through.

• A few said a softer labor market would restrain pressures.

• A couple said lower immigration would lessen housing demand and strengthen housing disinflation.

• Many noted risks that prolonged above-target inflation could raise longer-term expectations.

Labor market & growth

• Participants observed slowed job gains and a higher unemployment rate before the shutdown.

• Participants saw indicators showing gradual softening without sharp deterioration.

• Many attributed the slowdown to reduced labour supply and less labour demand amid uncertainty.

• Many said structural factors, including Al-related investment, were dampening labor demand.

• Participants generally expected further gradual softening with less dynamism.

• Several warned low turnover and hiring hesitancy posed downside risks.

• A few saw rising unemployment in sensitive groups or concentrated job gains as signalling broader weakness.

• Some noted persistent divergence between subdued job growth and moderate GDP growth, possibly due to productivity gains and demographic constraints.

• Participants noted moderate activity; many reported firmer consumer spending.

• Many highlighted divergence across income groups, with high-income households supporting consumption and lower-income households showing price sensitivity.

• A couple warned that reliance on high-income spending created vulnerability.

• A couple noted continued housing-market weakness despite some stabilisation.

• Many highlighted strong technology and Al-related investment.

• A few said lower business taxes or regulatory easing would support activity.

• Some remarked that financial conditions we re supportive.

• A few cited ongoing agricultural headwinds from low crop prices, high input costs and weak foreign demand.

Balance sheet & QT & liquidity

• Almost all said it was appropriate to conclude runoff on 1 December or could support doing so.

• Most participants favored a fed portfolio matching the composition of treasuries outstanding

Asset prices:

• Several participants highlighted possibility of disorderly fall in stock prices, especially in event of abrupt reassessment of ai- related prospects.

Housing market and real estate commentary

• A couple noted continued housing-market weakness and affordability constraints.

Agricultural commentary

• A few cited headwinds from low crop prices, elevated input costs and weaker foreign demand.

Discussions of Artificial Intelligence

• A few participants suggested that potential recent productivity gains achieved through automation and AI may help businesses support their profit margins and limit the extent to which cost increases are passed on to consumers

• Many participants remarked that structural factors such as investment related to AI and other productivity-enhancing technologies may be contributing to softer labor demand.

• Some participants noted the apparent divergence between subdued job growth and moderate GDP growth, with several suggesting that this pattern might persist over time as advances in AI boost productivity growth while demographic factors constrain labor supply.

• Regarding the business sector, many participants highlighted strong investment in technology, particularly spending related to AI and data centers. Some participants suggested that those investments could boost productivity and thus aggregate supply.

• Broad equity indexes continued to rise over the period, with the largest technology companies performing strongly on market participants’ optimism about artificial intelligence (AI). The manager noted that rising stock prices were consistent with expectations for continued robust growth in earnings.

Read the full Minutes below:

Tyler Durden Wed, 11/19/2025 - 15:00

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

A brief excerpt:

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million in October, up 0.7% from September’s preliminary pace and up 1.5% last October’s seasonally adjusted pace.

Local realtor/MLS reports suggest that the median existing single-family home sales price last month was up by about 2.2% from a year earlier.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to report October existing home sales on Thursday. The consensus is for 4.08 million SAAR, up from 4.06 million in September.

There is also a discussion of R* in the article.