The Canadian Press reports CPP Investments forms real estate joint venture with California-based IRA Capital:

The Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has signed a deal to form a joint venture with California-based private equity firm IRA Capital to invest in medical outpatient buildings.

CPP Investments has allocated an initial US$143 million of equity capital to the joint venture.

It will hold a 47.5 per cent stake.

The partners have agreed to acquire an initial portfolio of 24 properties across 11 U.S. states to start.

Sophie van Oosterom, managing director and head of real estate at CPP Investments, says the venture will target modern outpatient care facilities in growing U.S. communities.

Founded in 2010, IRA Capital specializes in real estate investments with a focus on commercial real estate assets in the U.S. 

Last week, CPP investments issued a statement on this deal: 

CPP Investments allocates initial US$143 million of equity capital to the joint venture.

Toronto, ON (January 22, 2026) – Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments) today announced its participation in a joint venture with IRA Capital and a global institutional investor (the “Joint Venture”) to invest in medical outpatient buildings. CPP Investments will hold a 47.5% stake in the Joint Venture.

CPP Investments has allocated US$143 million of equity capital to the Joint Venture, which will have an expected acquisition capacity of approximately US$850 million.

“The program will target modern outpatient care facilities in growing U.S. communities, where demand is supported by demographic trends and the shift of services from hospitals to outpatient settings,” said Sophie van Oosterom, Managing Director, Head of Real Estate at CPP Investments. “We are pleased to establish this program with IRA Capital to invest in high-quality medical facilities across resilient markets, where effective management of the assets can enhance tenant experience and retention. This investment will help deliver long-term, risk-adjusted returns to the CPP Fund for the benefit of CPP contributors and beneficiaries.”

As part of this Joint Venture, the partners have agreed to acquire an initial 1.5 million square-foot medical facility portfolio across 24 properties. The assets include on-campus and advanced outpatient care facilities that support physicians and health-system partners.

About CPP Investments

Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPP Investments™) is a professional investment management organization that manages the Canada Pension Plan Fund in the best interest of the more than 22 million contributors and beneficiaries. In order to build diversified portfolios of assets, we make investments around the world in public equities, private equities, real estate, infrastructure, fixed income and alternative strategies including in partnership with funds. Headquartered in Toronto, with offices in Hong Kong, London, Mumbai, New York City, San Francisco, São Paulo and Sydney, CPP Investments is governed and managed independently of the Canada Pension Plan and at arm’s length from governments. At September 30, 2025, the Fund totaled C$777.5 billion. For more information, please visit www.cppinvestments.com or follow us on LinkedIn, Instagram or on X @CPPInvestments.

I didn't know much about IRA Capital before reading about this joint venture but they're obviously legit and specialize in this sector:

IRA Capital “IRA” is a leading private equity firm focused on alternative investments. Founded in 2010, IRA invests capital for its own account and on behalf of its co-investment partners, which include pension funds, institutions, and family offices. The firm primarily invests in commercial real estate assets throughout the United States, with an overweight concentration within the medical/healthcare real estate sector. IRA has established itself as a leader within its respective industries and markets, with deep relationships and a strong track record of profitability.  

As to why CPP Investments is teaming up with IRA to invest in medical outpatient buildings, I think this outlook analysis by PWC titled In Times of Uncertainty, Health Care Real Estate Offers Stability is instructive. I note the key points below

• Health care real estate is positioned to outperform in 2026, supported by demographic tailwinds, sustained outpatient demand, and its role as a core defensive asset.

• Tight market conditions and limited new construction will continue into next year, maintaining upward pressure on rents and reinforcing stable fundamentals.

• Investor activity is expected to strengthen in 2026 as capital markets ease and confidence builds around the sector’s long-term growth trajectory.

In times of market uncertainty, investor focus tends to shift to sectors that are anticyclical and can weather a storm. The inelastic demand for health care services and the real estate that supports it becomes even more attractive. Despite an overall softening of the labor market, health care continues to be one of the strongest sectors tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics: health care employment growth annually was 2.8 percent as of August 2025 (down from approximately 4 percent levels in 2024) while total nonfarm growth has slowed to 0.9 percent as of August (from levels of 1.3 percent in 2024). 

Demand for health care services continues to grow as the population ages, new discoveries and medical advances increase the amount of medical issues that can be addressed, and the focal shift from reactive medical care to preventative care and wellness continues. The real estate that supports the health care system is largely made up of hospitals and inpatient care and medical office buildings or medical outpatient buildings (collectively, MOBs). There are 7,273 hospitals in the United States making up 1.9 billion square feet and 42,260 MOBs representing 1.6 billion square feet. MOBs can include any number of tenant types and services including urgent care and emergency services, dialysis, ambulatory surgery, and imaging, as well as standard physician offices. 

The MOB sector has continued to see an increase in demand. With advancements in health care technology, many services are now able to be performed in an outpatient setting rather than inpatient, freeing up space in the hospital for more advanced and complicated cases. In recent years, many of these MOB locations have been moving off-hospital campus and out into the community to make them more accessible for patients. This helps providers and hospital systems build market share and more effectively serve a wide range of patients and cases.

Worth repeating this: "With advancements in health care technology, many services are now able to be performed in an outpatient setting rather than inpatient, freeing up space in the hospital for more advanced and complicated cases."

I'm sure CPP Investments and IRA Capital did their homework here and are targeting the right metropolitan areas to invest in and I suspect this will be one of many joint ventures in this area.

Another smart investment over the long run.

Alright, let me wrap it up and go watch "The PITT" with my wife (we are hooked).

Below, in this episode of Multiple Perspectives, host David Lofgren interviews Trisha Talbot, Managing Principal of Doc Properties, to explore the intricacies of medical office building investments, tenant dynamics, and how demographic shifts are reshaping healthcare real estate opportunities.

Also, in this episode of The Smart Property Investment Show, co-hosts Liam Garman and Emilie Lauer sit down with Matthew Strotton, the head of real estate at Real Asset Management (RAM) in Australia, to discuss how investors can diversify their portfolios through healthcare real estate.

Lastly, if you've never seen The PITT, it's awesome, intense, fast paced and just awesome!

Censorship & The Ratchet Effect: Threats To Free Speech Outlast Supposed Crises

Authored by Julian Adorney via TheDailyEconomy.org,

Late last year, YouTube announced plans to reinstate accounts that had been banned at the behest of the Biden Administration for posting alleged COVID-19 misinformation. The announcement likely came as a relief to groups like the Children’s Health Defense Fund, a group associated with Robert Kennedy Jr.; and to Senator Ron Johnson; both of whom were punished by the social media giant for posting videos that ran contrary to the Biden administration’s official policy on the COVID-19 vaccine and on COVID-19 treatments.

This is a good move. But we should remember, it wasn’t just YouTube that decided to punish speech disapproved by the prior administration. 

A report by the United States House of Representatives’ Committee on the Judiciary and Select Subcommittee on the Weaponization of the Federal Government contains damning evidence that the Biden Administration leaned on social media companies to censor anti-vaccine content during the COVID-19 pandemic. The report details how Facebook, Amazon, and YouTube all shadowbanned or removed content that was critical of the administration’s official stance on the vaccines, the origin of the virus, and more.

The administration’s actions were reckless, and endangered more than just our societal freedom of speech.

For one thing, while it might be tempting to think that the Biden Administration only censored crackpots and conspiracy theorists, the truth is far worse. The report details how the Biden administration leaned on Facebook to censor the “lab leak” theory of COVID-19’s origins, a theory that’s now seen as highly plausible. It similarly asked Facebook to censor “negative information on or opinions about the vaccine,” and internal emails from Facebook report that ““The Surgeon General wants us to remove true information about side effects.”

Prominent scientists who opposed the administration’s position on lockdowns, including Dr. Jay Bhattacharya (current head of the National Institutes of Health) were blacklisted by social media platforms. At the administration’s behest, videos featuring Bhattacharya were removed from YouTube.

All of this did immense damage to our truth-seeking apparatus, during a time when finding the truth could not have been more important. When Facebook dragged its feet on censoring certain content, President Biden publicly accused them of “killing people.” But the same accusation could be made against the Biden Administration itself: by censoring scientific debate during a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic, the administration virtually guaranteed that its response would be worse than if prominent critics were allowed to voice their concerns.

Some proponents of censorship argue that the more important an issue is, the more justification there is for censorship. This makes a superficial kind of sense: after all, nobody wants hucksters selling snake oil to take advantage of sick people by claiming that they’re curing cancer. But more often, the inverse is true: the higher the stakes of a given issue, the more essential it is that experts on all sides be allowed to voice their concerns freely. By preventing this robust scientific debate, the Biden administration ensured that the policies it implemented (including lockdowns and vaccine mandates) were worse than if prominent critics had been given a seat at the table.

The Biden Administration’s actions also took a sledgehammer to institutional trust in America, which has fallen to concerning levels. The decline of institutional trust worries critics across the political spectrum, from progressives concerned that our society is becoming anti-science to conservatives like Yuval Levin, for a simple reason: our society works better when we trust our institutions and when, in turn, they show themselves to be trustworthy.

By politicizing the scientific debate about the COVID-19 pandemic, the Biden Administration did profound damage to institutional trust. A study by Pew finds that in April 2020, 87 percent of Americans “had confidence in scientists to act in the public’s best interests.” By late 2023, that number had fallen to 73 percent. By summer of 2024, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had only a 33 percent approval rating among Republicans. Many on the left chalk this trend up to Republicans being anti-science, but the House Judiciary report tells a different story: many on the right lost trust in an institution that they justifiably saw as having been shamelessly politicized.

Trust in news has plummeted as well. In 2019, 18 percent of Americans had a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of faith in television news. By 2024, that number had fallen to 12 percent. In 2019, 23 percent of respondents had a “great deal” or “quite a lot” of faith in newspapers; by 2024, that number was just 18 percent. There are multiple reasons for this decline in trust, but it’s hard to see evidence of the administration jawboning companies into censoring so-called “misinformation” on COVID-19 and not conclude that many Americans are simply tired of feeling lied to by the news.

The other problem created by the administration has to do with what economist Robert Higgs calls the “ratchet effect.” Here’s how Michael Matulef describes the phenomenon:

The ratchet effect theory, as popularized by Robert Higgs in his book Crisis and Leviathan, refers to the tendency of governments to respond to crises by implementing new policies, regulations, and laws that significantly enhance their powers. These measures are typically presented as temporary solutions to address specific problems. However, in history, these measures often outlast their intended purpose and become a permanent part of the legal landscape.

One danger of the Biden Administration’s actions is that they can become precedents for future administrations to further erode free speech protections in future crises. The Biden administration inured people to having their freedom of speech censored in the name of public health, which makes it that much more likely that we’ll be equally willing to shrug off future abuses. When it comes to free speech, we the people can feel like the proverbial frog sitting in a pot of increasingly hot water, and it should concern all of us whenever an administration decides to increase the temperature by a few degrees.

When we’re discussing freedom of speech, First Amendment defenders can be strident about the principles involved; as more than one First Amendment absolutist has argued, even if there were no practical benefit to free speech beyond letting people speak freely, it would still be worth defending. 

That’s true, but we shouldn’t let ourselves forget that the First Amendment is also a profoundly practical tool for building a good society.

When governments censor their people, they do profound damage to the truth-seeking apparatus and risk people’s lives and livelihoods with poorly-thought-out policies.

They damage the institutional trust that keeps society functioning.

No matter what we think of the arguments made by lockdown resistors and COVID-19 vaccine skeptics, we should be appalled that our government tried to censor them.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 16:20

 

 

Two weeks ago, I wrote “It’s Tariff Week! *.”

The asterisk added the word “Hopefully…”

“This is likely the week the Supreme Court issues a ruling on the IEEPA tariffs in place since April 2025.” I wrote, getting it totally wrong. It turned out to be (mostly) wishful thinking on my part.

As we continue to await the decision that should overturn the tariffs, let’s update the latest data on the IEEPA tariffs.1 Specifically, I want to focus on tariffs and the impact they have had on the economy.2

~~~

Before diving into the economic details, let’s talk TACO.3

A Bloomberg analysis (dated January 27) found that about 75% of Trump’s tariff threats amount to little or nothing. When people ask if the market is irrational as it ignores tariffs, the proper answer is to point them to the pie chart at top. Markets turn out to be mostly rational, most of the time.4

Whether you see them as bluffs or negotiation tactics, this explains why the market has become so sanguine about tariffs. They understand that most of the time, it‘s just noise; the rest of the time, it’s a 10% market sell-off away from a reversal. This is well documented in WSJ, Barron’s, FT, Bloomberg, etc.

 

What this means — at least so far — is that much of this policy has not been implemented. Despite that, the data below strongly suggests that the Tariffs have had a substantial impact economically.5  U.S. Consumers today face an average effective tariff rate of 18% — the highest since 1934, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

~~~

The Labor market is a key indicator of the overall health of the economy. When jobs are plentiful and wages are rising, consumers feel better about spending and debt. We see evidence of this in labor data, consumer spending, and sentiment.

 

The chart above is from my Q1 2026 client call. It shows a huge post-pandemic surge that began slowing in 2022 to more normal (aka) sustainable levels.

Then came April 2nd, 2025. We expect a substantial tax increase to cause some issues with hiring, but the haphazard, almost random way these were implemented was especially disruptive. We have not added any jobs since Liberation Day. Worse, the NY Times analysis found “Health care and social assistance accounted for virtually all private-sector job growth in 2025.”

Overall, the unemployment rate has risen 0.3 percentage points by the end of 2025. BLS reported that “Over the year, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 8 states, decreased in the District of Columbia, and was essentially unchanged in 42 states.” Estimates suggest unemployment will increase an additional 0.7 – 1.0 percentage points by the end of 2026, lowering total payroll employment by 490,000 by the end of the year.

But for the tariffs, total payroll employment would have been 490,000 higher at the end of 2025.

~~~

Since Tariffs act as a Tax on consumers, let’s consider the impact of these costs on inflation and consumer spending.

Inflation has remained sticky, despite widespread expectations it would continue to drop. Some estimates put the average burden of 2025 tariffs at about 1.3% or an average per household of $1,800 annually.6 The Tax Policy Center estimates were even higher, at $2,100 per household in 2026, with larger percentage impacts on lower-income households.

CBO’s outlook explicitly attributes upward pressure on the cost of goods and production inputs to higher tariffs, which pushed inflation higher in 2025 relative to a no-tariff baseline.

Contrary to what the administration has claimed, American importers and consumers bear nearly all of the costs. According to the Keil Institute, “Foreign exporters absorb only about 4% of the tariff burden—the remaining 96% is passed through to US buyers.”

~~~

Beyond New Hires plummeting, consider what else happened after the Liberation Tariffs were announced:

-Except for AI, similar decreases occurred in Corporate Capital Expenditures (imagine what that would look like but for the hyper-scalers).

–Consumer Sentiment at its lowest level in 12 years.

-An Economist/YouGov poll found “71% of Americans feel like the country is out of control.”

One thing Trump did get right about tariffs: They bring actual dollars into the federal government coffers. About $200 billion in 2025 alone, estimated to raise about $2.5 trillion between 2026-35. Once tariff revenues reach billions or trillions of dollars, the legal claim that this is not a tax becomes utterly nonsensical.

~~~

SCOTUS Blog recently discussed the modern history of opinion releases. Specifically, how hotly-awaited decisions can be issued on non-argument days. So not only have we NOT gotten the SCOTUS decision on Tariffs, but the regular schedule now shows the next non-argument day on the court’s calendar is Friday, Feb. 20.

There is nothing that prevents the court from releasing a decision whenever, especially considering this was fast-tracked back in September.

racked back in September. I remain hopeful we get a decision before Feb. 20. Perhaps this is only wishful thinking on my part (again).

 

 

 

 

 

 

Previously:
It’s Tariff Week! * (January 12, 2026)

Tariffs Likely To Be Overturned (November 5, 2025)

Might Tariffs Get “Overturned”? (July 31, 2025)

The Muted Impact of Tariffs on Inflation So Far (July 17, 2025)

Are Tariffs a New US VAT Tax? (March 31, 2025)

MiB: Special Edition: Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 3, 2025)

Neal Katyal on Challenging Trump’s Global Tariffs (September 8, 2025)

Which States Could Suffer the Most From Trade War Tariffs? (September 16, 2019)

 

 

 

Sources:
Learning Resources v. Donald J. Trump, POTUS (full docket)

America’s own goal: Americans pay almost entirely for Trump’s tariffs (Kiel, 19.01.2026)

Stung by Trump, America’s Top Trading Partners Shift Gaze to China (WSJ, Jan 26, 2026)

Consumer Price Index: 2025 in review (January 21, 2026)

CBO’s Current View of the Economy From 2025 to 2028 (September 2025)

 

 

 

__________

1. I fully expect the tariffs to be overturned (7-2?), but if they are not, I will consider that the end of whatever shreds of credibility the court has left. I do expect new Ethics rules eventually; a major court revamp is also a (less likely) possibility.

2, No, this is not a full review of the economic impact of Trump’s first year. If there is an appetite for that among clients and readers, I may yet put that together in the coming weeks. TBH, I am kind of surprised Wall Street has not done this yet…

3. TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out

4. See “Maybe Mr. Market Is Rational After All” (August 7, 2020) and “Rational Exuberance?” (November 24, 2025)

5. There have also been substantial geopolitical, strategic, and military impacts of the tariffs. I will leave it to others to address those sorts of things, as they are outside my areas of expertise…

6. BLS’ Consumer Price Index 2025 in review found that “prices for all items rose 2.7%.” The hardest hit are manufactured goods from abroad and commodities (including food and energy).

 

The post IEEPA Tariffs Update appeared first on The Big Picture.

White House Expects Largest Tax Refund Season As IRS Opens 2026 Filing

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The IRS announced on Jan. 26 the opening of the 2026 tax filing season.

“The IRS expects about 164 million individual tax returns for tax year 2025 to be filed ahead of the Wednesday, April 15, federal deadline. Taxpayers can find a range of tools and filing options on IRS.gov to help them prepare and file their returns,” the agency said in a news release.

The IRS has various online tools and resources that taxpayers can use before, during, and after filing their federal tax returns, the agency said in a Jan. 8 statement. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into law by President Donald Trump in July, carries provisions that can help taxpayers lower their tax bills and raise their refund amounts.

“The Internal Revenue Service is ready to help taxpayers meet their tax filing and payment obligations during the 2026 filing season,” IRS Chief Executive Officer Frank Bisignano said.

“As always, the IRS workforce remains vigilant and dedicated to their mission to serve the American taxpaying public. At the same time, IRS information systems have been updated to incorporate the new tax laws and are ready to efficiently and effectively process taxpayer returns during the filing season.”

The White House said in a Jan. 26 statement that millions of Americans are poised to receive “significantly larger tax refunds” this filing season due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.

The legislation is set to deliver the “largest tax refund season in U.S. history,” the White House said, projecting average refunds to jump by $1,000 or more, citing various analyses.

Some of the key provisions of the bill contributing to higher refunds are no taxes on tips or overtime up to certain income thresholds, an additional deduction for seniors, and a deduction in auto loan interest payments.

An analysis made by the Tax Foundation cited by the White House expects tax refunds in 2026 to average $3,800 per taxpayer due to the legislation.

Comparatively, the refund amount was $3,052 in tax year 2024 and $3,004 in 2023.

In its latest statement, the IRS said that most refunds are issued within 21 days. However, refunds that require additional review from the agency may take longer.

Direct deposit is the fastest way for taxpayers to receive a refund, according to the agency. The IRS began phasing out paper refund checks beginning Sept. 30, in line with a March 25 executive order signed by Trump.

The order, “Modernizing Payments To and From America’s Bank Account,” stated that the use of paper-based payment systems by the federal government was imposing “unnecessary costs; delays; and risks of fraud, lost payments, theft, and inefficiencies.”

It asked all departments and agencies to comply with the directive by transitioning to an electronic funds transfer system. Paper checks were allowed for certain exceptions, such as individuals who do not have access to banking services, and emergency situations where electronic payments would cause “undue hardship” for the recipient.

Taxpayers are urged to provide their bank account and routing numbers for their refunds to be electronically deposited.

The IRS estimates most refund payments for the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Additional Child Tax Credit (ACTC) to be reflected in the bank accounts or debit cards of taxpayers by March 2. This is only applicable for taxpayers who have chosen the direct deposit option, and whose returns do not face any issues with processing.

Taxpayers can track their refund status by using the IRS Individual Online Account, IRS2Go app, or the Where’s My Refund? tool, the agency said. Where’s My Refund? is expected to offer projected deposit dates for most of the early EITC and ACTC refund filers by Feb. 21.

“As America celebrates its 250th anniversary, the IRS and its employees are excited to once again serve American taxpayers in meeting their tax filing obligations during the 2026 filing season,” Bisignano said. “The IRS encourages taxpayers to speed the processing of their returns by using e-file, instead of paper.”

IRS Readiness

Meanwhile, a Sept. 29 audit report issued by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration had raised concerns about the IRS’s ability to handle the 2026 filing season.

“Several initiatives reduced the IRS workforce since January 2025,” the report said. “Key IRS functions responsible for managing the filing season have lost 17 to 19 percent of their workforce.” In addition, the IRS’s Information Technology function has faced staffing losses as well, it said.

“We expect workforce reductions to impact key processing programs and customer service going forward. We are concerned about how this will impact the 2026 Filing Season.”

However, in the Jan. 8 IRS statement, Acting IRS Commissioner Scott Bessent said that the agency had prepared for the 2026 filing season.

Even before the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, “Treasury and IRS were diligently preparing to update forms and processes for the benefit of hardworking Americans,” Bessent said.

“President Trump is committed to the taxpayers of this country and improving upon the successful tax filing season in 2025.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 14:00

Person In Critical Condition After Border Patrol-Involved Shooting In Arizona

A person is in critical condition following a shooting incident early Tuesday morning in Pima County, Arizona. 

Photo via KVOA

Emergency responders from the Santa Rita Fire District (SRFD) and American Medical Response arrived on the scene around 7:30 a.m., where they found one individual in custody who was in critical condition, KVOA reports.

First responders provided immediate medical care before the patient was transferred to a local medical helicopter, which took the person to a regional trauma center. 

The Pima County Sheriff's Department and the FBI are assisting in the investigation.

Stay tuned for updates...

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 13:48

Ugly 5Y Auction Tails Amid Faltering Demand

If yesterday's 2Y auction was stellar, today's 5Y sale was the opposite.

Just after 1pm, the US completed the sale of $70BN in 5Y paper at a high yield of 3.823%, up from 3.747% one month ago and the highest since July. It also tailed the When Issued 3.820% by 0.3bps, the 7th tail in the last 8 auctions.

The bid to cover of 2.34 was essentially unchanged from last month's 2.35 and just below the six auction average of 2.36.

The internals were also on the soft side: Indirects were awarded 60.7%, up from 59.5% but below the recent average of 61.0%; and with Directs right in line with expectations (28.5% vs 28.7% recent average), Dealers were left with 10.8%, up modestly from 8.8% last month and also just above the recent average of 10.4%.

Overall, this was an ugly auction, yet the market reception was just modestly chilly at best, with 10Y yields barely moving after the break. After all, the market has the Fed to worry about tomorrow, a far biggest catalyst.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 13:28

Los Angeles Homeless Services CEO Charged With Defrauding Taxpayers To Pay For Luxury Lifestyle

Via Headline USA,

The CEO of a Los Angeles homeless services charity faces federal and state fraud charges after prosecutors said he lived a luxury lifestyle that included lavish vacations and designer clothes paid for with $23 million in public money meant to keep people off the streets.

Alexander Soofer, 42, was arrested Friday at his $7 million home that investigators believe he afforded using funds that were supposed to support his nonprofit Abundant Blessings, said First Assistant U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli.

The charitable group was contracted with the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority, a county agency, to use taxpayer money to find shelter and provide three meals a day for more than 600 homeless residents.

Instead, prosecutors said Soofer bought a $125,000 Range Rover, a $2,450 Hermes jacket, a vacation home in Greece and a trip to Hawaii, where he stayed at the Four Seasons hotel that was famously the setting for the HBO TV show “The White Lotus.”

“He was living the high life while the people suffering, the homeless, lived on the streets with no shelter, no food,” Essayli said during a Friday news conference with Los Angeles County District Attorney Nathan Hochman.

If convicted as charged, Soofer could receive a sentence of up to 20 years in prison, Essayli said. An email was sent Monday seeking comment from Soofer’s attorney, Hilary Potashner.

According to the indictment, Soofer falsified invoices to claim he was serving fresh meals and renting out rooms while homeless people were instead fed canned beans and bulk packs of microwavable ramen noodles.

Investigators found Soofer falsified records to cover up the fact that he paid himself to “rent” properties for homeless people that he already owned, the indictment said.

“Mr. Soofer called his company Abundant Blessings, but the only abundant blessings were the blessings he gave himself,” Hochman said.

During the news conference, the prosecutors pointed to concerns that billions spent to combat homelessness haven’t brought enough people off the streets. The number of homeless residents across Los Angeles County dropped 4% last year, according to the annual count released last July. The tally estimated that some 72,000 people were living in shelters or in sidewalk encampments countywide.

Los Angeles County officials last March moved to take control of hundreds of millions of dollars in spending, citing two scathing audits that found that the homeless services authority spent it recklessly and without transparency.

Between 2018 and 2025, Soofer received more than $23 million in homeless housing funding. Of that, more than $5 million came directly from the county homeless services authority and more than $17 million came through a Los Angeles-based nonprofit called Special Service for Groups Inc., the U.S. Attorney’s Office said. None of the money came directly from the state.

Soofer is charged federally with wire fraud and the state charges include 11 felony counts of conflict of interest, two felony counts of offering false evidence and five felony counts of forgery.

Soofer appeared in court Friday but did not enter a plea. He was released on $1.5 million bond and is scheduled to be arraigned in federal court on Feb. 26. His arraignment on state charges was not yet scheduled.

The arrests became fodder for the ongoing war of words between President Donald Trump’s administration and California Gov. Gavin Newsom. After a conservative commentator placed blame for the fraud on Newsom, the Democratic governor’s press office pushed back.

“This case was uncovered by local investigators working with law enforcement — exactly the kind of accountability and oversight the state has pushed for,” Newsom’s office said.

That prompted a response by Essayli, who again blamed Newsom.

“You and the California legislature facilitated this fraud by handing out billions in tax dollars to these nonprofits with zero vetting and zero state oversight,” Essayli said Friday on social media.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 13:05

Guns, Grenades, Killer Drones, & The Hulk: Highlights From The 2026 SHOT Show

Last week was the annual SHOT Show - an industry-only convention held in Las Vegas, Nevada that's notoriously difficult to get into. Fortunately, we were able to call in a favor and walked 25 miles over four days. We met (or almost met) all sorts of interesting folks, including Deputy AG Todd Blanche, Harmeet Dhillon, FBI whistleblower Kyle Seraphin, Ted Nugent, Lou Ferigno, and the guys behind Kommandostore.

Walking into the show, we were confronted with a giant, ominous drone - the IAI APUS-60, with a SIG M250 belt-fed machine gun mounted to it.

The system can detect targets out to 25km (15.5 miles) with an electro optical sensor that has 10x zoom, while its infrared sensor has 5x zoom for night missions. This drone, which again is massive, can carry 77 lbs - or 200 rounds of 7.62x51mm when the M250 is equipped. Fortunately, being a SIG, it did not negligently fire itself (all firing pins were removed from all guns at the show).

Sig told TheFirearmBlog that the drone is designed to provide loitering air support to something like a forward operating base or a moving convoy (for example). Would you like to know more?

Colt, meanwhile, stuck a grenade launcher on a drone:

Photo via soldiersystems.net

Below are some of the interesting products we came across, however scroll to the end for links to even more...

Glock Gen6

Next up is the Glock Gen6, which was introduced at SHOT. Initially offered in 9mm G17 (full size), G19 (compact) and G45 (G19 slide on a G17 frame), the new Glocks have improved ergonomics, a rough-texture frame pattern and deeper slide serrations, which translates to less boxy design, more comfort, and easier racking. 

Photo via nrawomen.com

The trigger reach geometry has also been reduced, which will hopefully eliminate the dreaded "Glock finger," as the folks from guns.com note. 

Via guns.com Bizon anyone?

Got a 9mm AK-V or KP9? Always wanted a Russian PP-19 Bizon, one of the most difficult and expensive Russian firearms to procure? Do you like 55-round helical magazines? Say no more... The folks at Stuff and Things, Inc. have come out with a conversion kit! Or, PSA sells the whole gun. 

Via yours truly

SHHH!

This here's a cute little number - the Station Six 9mm suppressed 'covert' luger. Not only is it silenced, it's a bolt action (single shots) that's engineered for maximum silence. 

Tracing its roots back to the covert, World War II-era Welrod pistol, and more modernized contract B&T VP9, the B&T Station SIX (Silenced Project caliber 9) harkens back to the famed SOE Station IX, where the original concept was conceived by the, then, Inter-Services Research Bureau. This updated, integrally suppressed pistol features a new grip and updated magazines, yet maintains its non-descript appearance, whisper-quiet sound signature and unique rotating bolt operation. 

30MM Grenade Rifle

Barret Arms, perhaps most famous for their 50 caliber sniper rifles, brought a few of their new 30mm grenade rifles to SHOT. Developed in partnership with MARS Inc (not the candy), this little number won the US Army's XTECH Soldier Lethality competition's Precision Grenadier System (PGS) requirement. 

From Barrett: "PGS is a soldier portable, shoulder fired, semi-automatic, magazine fed, integrated armament system (weapon, ammunition, fire control) that enables rapid, precision engagements to destroy personnel targets in defilade and Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) targets at close range."

DIAL THE GATE, WE'RE COMING IN HOT!

Not a new gun, but Stargate nerds were able to hold and caress a FN PS90 bullpup. 

HULKING out

Actor and 2A supporter Lou Ferigno was at the show, where we got to meet him at the Gun Owners of America booth. Extremely nice guy, who agreed to arm wrestle GOA's Stephen Willeford (also extremely nice). 

Lucky for Stephen, nobody made Lou mad...

RARE SIGHTING: A representative of the Kingdom of Wakanda was in town, though we must have missed their booth at the show.

What Else Is New?

Check out the following links to TheFirearmBlog (no affiliation) for excellent coverage on way more guns than we saw.

Palmetto State Armory's Fresh Crop Of New Guns

Eotech Scopes, Lasers, Silencers And Red Dots

Now The Chiappa Rhino Comes In .44 Magnum

Kaliber Tech KT10 Semi-auto 6.5 PRC & .300 WSM

Silenced Bond Arms Derringers, Better Suppressed Glocks

AS Designs MP5 Forced Reset Triggers

Automatic For The People: Now You Can DIY A Gatling Gun

An FG42 Or Walther WA2000 For Everyone

And remember...

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 12:45

The Gold Move Is A Vote Of No Confidence In The Entire Global Financial Architecture

By Michael Every of Rabobank

As Axios puts it, ‘Wall Street's playbook for 2026 already needs to be rewritten’. Many players’ do.

Gold is through $5,000 and silver up 5.5% at over $109 – it was even higher intraday. You might not trade either, and I remain sceptical that we are moving back to a gold or silver standard, even for limited international trade. Yet besides the notable industrial implications from silver (and copper), this is hoarding, and a vote of no confidence in the entire global financial architecture. Wall Street is calling it “the Debasement Trade.’ That fails to see that, in time, it can lead to Wall Street being put in a basement, or up against a wall. Plenty to think about there.

The IMF head warned the world to ‘prepare for a global run on the US dollar’, adding the EU should issue more common debt to provide investors with an alternative safe asset to gold and US Treasuries. There are vast structural changes implied in every part of that sentence.

In Japan, 10-year yields are +4.5bps, reversing the recent JGB rally. As the WSJ notes, ‘Wall Street Is Fixated on a Possible Yen Intervention.’ After all, Japanese CPI is 2.1%, 30-year yields are 3.66%, the BOJ can’t do too much because public debt is so high, the country has run five annual trade deficits in a row, removing its protective shield, and a weak JPY isn’t helping, just feeding inflation. Some see Japan needing a US bailout before these JGB problems flow back to US Treasuries… even as markets are wondering who is going to bail the US out.

There, note that, the US is breaking the global architecture to bail itself out. That starts with geopolitics and geoeconomics, then flows back to markets:

PM Takaichi just underlined her country’s alliance with the US would 'collapse' if Japan fled a Taiwan crisis. As a result, the US-Japan trade deal --which isn’t an FTA because time is too short for technocratic politesse-- is logically likely to hold; Japan’s industry will be worked into US military supply chains; and the US could logically extend its still-powerful fiat largesse to Tokyo. What other options do Japan or the US have? “Because markets”?

Yet South Korea has seen Trump threaten to increase US tariffs back to 25% because Seoul is “not living up to” the trade deal struck last year. As another stick there, the latest US National Defence Strategy makes clear South Korea, as others, is expected to do far more for its own defense under the US umbrella: but the implication could be that umbrellas can be closed if those under them don’t contribute to holding tightly against strong geopolitical winds.

On which, China’s Xi just purged most of his senior generals on a scale unseen since Mao: the WSJ states one was accused of selling nuclear secrets to the US. It certainly appears all power over the PLA is now in Xi’s hands; but all else is far less certain.

In Europe, the EU parliament delayed its decision to unfreeze the EU-US trade deal after the Greenland crisis, while an FTA with India is on the cards. However, NATO chief Rutte warned Europe can’t defend itself without the US, and “The EU should stop dreaming of creating a European pillar for NATO and continue to build ties with the US despite Trump.” The New York Times adds, ‘As Europe's reliance on natural gas grows, so does Trump’s leverage’, noting concern that “Trump could turn the strong position that the US has gained in the oil and gas industry into a weapon to try to coerce other countries..." So, what is the ultimate EU decision to be?

UK PM Starmer stated the UK doesn’t have to choose between the US and China and is heading to Beijing to strike deals. Note that as with Canadian PM Carney, such trips are planned well in advance. Indeed, Politico claims behind closed doors, ministers have pushed for closer economic collaboration with Beijing for a year, even as they signed a US deal that runs the other way - and as it’s reported that China hacked the Downing Street phones for years. Will the US express the same unhappiness to the UK here as it did to PM Carney, and to PM Starmer over his proposed Chagos Islands deal. If so, does he have to choose?

Carney’s retort that he has no intention of signing an FTA with China (which allows the US to dissolve the USMCA), leaves one wondering what exactly a “strategic partnership” with Beijing, as part of a “New World Order”, involves: the political or military sphere? Meanwhile, in the geoeconomic one, again as predicted, the Canadian press notes the US has broached the idea of “something approaching a North American customs union… The partners would apply a common trade policy to other countries, even globally.” And the US would set it. That would, as its press also notes, render Canada’s status akin to that of Hong Kong within China. Meanwhile, Canada, like the EU, is looking to India for more trade – but that ‘Hong Kong’ issue is in the background.

Not as extreme a case, but still notable, Australia’s financial press underlines that it can expect to be next to be told to make a choice and to spend at least 3.5% of GDP on defence.

Meanwhile, as middle powers talk about propping up the liberal world order without the US, the USS Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has arrived in Middle East, showing what real power is. On one hand, Trump says ‘Iran wants to make a deal,’ yet we may see US strikes against regime targets to trigger new mass protests, and there are suggestions it may impose a Venezuela-style blockade on Iranian oil exports – the kind of upstream disruption of commodity supply chains to China we flagged last year as a trump card vs. Beijing’s control of rare earths (where Japan-China tensions are driving high-tech mineral prices to record highs). Markets will be watching closely.

In the broader region, the Houthis said they may close the Red Sea and Suez Canal again if the US strikes Iran; Hezbollah also said, “we are not neutral,” but it remains to be seen if it is still lethal or not. More broadly, key players are realigning on the expectation that in near future Iran will be less of a threat and the US will be less involved: we see an emerging Saudi-Qatar-Egypt-Turkey-Somalia-Sudan-Yemen-Pakistan alignment vs. the UAE-Israel-Somaliland-South Sudan-South Yemen-India. How will the liberal middle powers tread those waters?

Against this backdrop, it’s reported that a ‘Record number of people in UK live in ‘very deep poverty’, analysis shows’; ‘Health Insurance Is Now More Expensive Than the Mortgage for These Americans’; and ‘Carney unveils hike to GST credit, other measures targeting affordability.’ Moreover, ‘The Wait List for a Birkin or Rolex Is Getting Shorter’ says the WSJ, while “Falling resale values show that even makers of the world’s most popular luxury goods are feeling a slowdown.” Oh, the humanity!

In short, expect domestic politics to stay as ‘interesting’ as geopolitics – and the two are inextricably linked. Indeed, even as Trump appears to be taking a more conciliatory stance over ICE in Minnesota for now, hedge fund star Ray Dalio warns of ‘a more clear civil war.’ Is a Birkin or a Rolex much help in one of those? I’m asking for a friend.

Lastly, as markets wait for the Fed this week while wondering about political pressure on the central bank, Indonesian President Prabowo's nephew is now a step closer to securing a position as Bank Indonesia’s Deputy Governor. Yes, playbooks are being rewritten – with some very old plays.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 11:45

US Weighs Precision Strikes On Iranian Officials As Govt Is 'Weakest' Since 1979

On the one hand there are reports that the Trump administration "is open for business" when it comes to negotiations with Iran. "If they want to talk, and they know our terms, we are open to have a conversation," a senior US official has told Axios. But on the other, amid this 'openness' toward cutting a deal (presumably on the nuclear and ballistic missile fronts), President Trump is said to be weighing a menu of escalation options aimed squarely at forcing regime change in the Islamic Republic, according to fresh regional and US reporting.

Middle East Eye, citing Arab officials, reports that Washington is actively considering direct strikes on senior targets in Tehran. "The US is weighing precision strikes on 'high-value' Iranian officials and commanders who it deems responsible for the deaths of protesters, a Gulf official familiar with the discussions told Middle East Eye."

US Air Force image

The Jerusalem Post reports that another option under discussion is a full blockade of Iranian oil exports - a replay of last year's Venezuela playbook. That campaign saw Washington impose an embargo, seize oil tankers, and ultimately kidnap Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in the Jan.3rd military raid on Caracas.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has emerged as a leading advocate of economic warfare, arguing that collapsing Iran's economy would create conditions severe enough to trigger an internal uprising against the government, or starve the system until it breaks (as also happened in Iran's ally Syria). US Treasury days ago began hitting Tehran officials with new protest-related sanctions.

Other senior officials are pushing for a more kinetic approach. Members of Trump's Cabinet have urged targeted military strikes against Iranian government and military assets, but say these could be limited in scope akin to military action in the June 12-day war involving Israel.

Earlier this month, Trump reportedly held back from striking Iran, citing concerns that the Pentagon lacked sufficient forces in the region to decisively topple the government, also at a moment the US Navy strike force was built up on the southern Caribbean. 

But a former US official told Middle East Eye that the odds of a strike are now higher than they were just weeks ago. Currently there's a major military buildup ensuing across the Middle East, including the deployment of an aircraft carrier strike group (the USS Abraham Lincoln strike group), additional fighter jets, and advanced air defense systems - signaling 'all options' are indeed on the table.

Protests is in Iran have long gone quiet, but what has changed? The NY Times reports Tuesday:

President Trump has received multiple U.S. intelligence reports indicating that the Iranian government’s position is weakening, according to several people familiar with the information.

The reports signal that the Iranian government’s hold on power is at its weakest point since the shah was overthrown in the 1979 revolution.

But the dilemma remains as hawks in the administration urge action: "Mr. Trump warned that he could strike Iran as the government’s bloody crackdown on the protests expanded. Still, his advisers have been divided on the benefits of strikes, particularly if they were simply symbolic strikes against elements of the government involved in the crackdown," The NY Times report adds.

Washington logic: Give them an ultimatum that they'll never accept anyway and consequently you have the perfect reason to start bombing them...

The Americans are basically asking the Iranians to abandon their entire defense strategy. It’s completely untenable for the regime. https://t.co/oGRDn1dDLh

— Woofers (@NotWoofers) January 26, 2026

One anti-Iran think tank hawk, Jason Brodsky, who is Policy Director at United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), writes that "Iran's regime wants a JCPOA-like deal. It is highly unlikely Khamenei will agree to the terms America is demanding because it would basically amount to a form of regime change. But the Islamic Republic will try and lead the U.S. on to think it will negotiate meaningfully to avoid an attack and entrap the U.S. in endless negotiations."

But we should note that Tehran also has little reason to ever trust Washington, given the original JCPOA was collapsed when the first Trump administration unilaterally pulled out of it.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 11:25

Federal Officials Refer Minnesota To DOJ For Allowing Boys In Girls' Sports

Authored by Aaron Gifford via The Epoch Times,

Federal officials have referred Minnesota to the Justice Department (DOJ) over alleged civil rights violations stemming from the state’s refusal to halt male participation in female sports.

The referral came from the Education Department (ED) and Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), which concluded in September that the state violated Title IX’s prohibition on sex-based discrimination in federally funded education.

In a news release on Monday, Education Secretary Linda McMahon accused state officials of failing to uphold federal law.

“Despite repeated opportunities to comply with Title IX, Minnesota has chosen defiance—continuing to jeopardize the safety of women and girls, deny them fair competition, and erode their right to equal access in educational programs and activities,” McMahon said. “The Trump Administration will not stop until accountability is delivered for Minnesota’s students.”

HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy said the federal government “will not look the other way” on this matter.

“When states allow males to compete in girls’ sports, they deny young women and girls the protections the law guarantees,” he said in the release.

The referral came amid escalating tensions between the Minnesota officials and the Trump administration, which has taken a number of recent executive actions in response to concerns about the fraudulent use of federal money in the state.

“Today’s letter notifies Minnesota that ED and HHS will refer the matter to DOJ for proceedings, which could result in termination of Minnesota’s Federal funding from ED and HHS,” the news release states.

Last year, an investigation by the administration determined that Minnesota’s education department and its official high school athletic league violated Title IX by allowing males to both compete in multiple female sports programs and occupy female-only bathrooms and locker rooms as well.

The Epoch Times reached out to the Minnesota Department of Education and the Minnesota High School State League for comment.

A proposed resolution agreement was provided to the state agencies to voluntarily resolve this issue, but the state agencies initially ignored the request and later announced that they would not accept the resolution agreement or engage in negotiations, McMahon said in the news release.

The investigations, which were opened in June, determined that a biological male had competed on the Champlin High School girls’ varsity fastpitch softball team since 2023, leading the squad to a winning record against all-girl opponents all three seasons. It also found that other districts had male athletes competing on girls’ lacrosse, volleyball, track and field, and ski (alpine and Nordic) teams.

According to a “toolkit“ on the Minnesota Department of Education website, “Title IX requires schools provide transgender students with the right to participate in such activities, including athletics, in a manner consistent with their gender identity.”

“The Minnesota State High School League allows participation for all students regardless of their gender identity or expression in an environment free from discrimination with an equal opportunity for participation in athletics and fine arts,” the document says.

The U.S. Supreme Court recently heard oral arguments from state leaders in West Virginia and Idaho asking justices to uphold their state laws preventing males from participating in female sports.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 11:05

Southwest Airlines Ends Open Seating, Moves To Reservation-Based System

Authored by Rob Sabo via The Epoch Times,

Southwest Airlines’ era of offering passengers open seating is officially ending, as the passenger carrier transitions its seating policy to a reservation-based system common with other airlines starting on Jan. 27.

Southwest announced last summer that it would end its open seating policy to offer customers a wider range of seating options. The airline’s new booking model includes three seating options: standard seating at the back of the aircraft; preferred seating near the front; and extra legroom seats in the front of the cabin and at the exit rows.

Southwest said it will also initiate a new group-based boarding process to replace its old “A,” “B,” and “C” boarding system that encouraged travelers to check in 24 hours prior to departure to secure the coveted “A” boarding option. The new boarding system will be skewed toward passengers who book premium seating options, while customers who choose basic seating will board last. Southwest will need to make physical changes to its departure gates to accommodate the new system, which could take months to complete.

Tony Roach, Southwest Airlines’ executive vice president of customer and brand, said the changes allow customers more choice and control over their flying experience.

“Assigned seating unlocks new opportunities for our customers—including the ability to select extra legroom seats—and removes the uncertainty of not knowing where they will sit in the cabin,” Roach said in a statement announcing the booking shakeup.

“This is an important step in our evolution, and we’re excited to pair these enhancements with our legendary customer service.”

The airline’s new “basic” fare option—formerly called Wanna Get Away—is nonrefundable and does not allow any changes in travel dates or times unless passengers upgrade to a higher tier. Choice Extra is the new name for its former business select option and includes two free checked bags along with priority boarding.

Southwest said on its website that the new booking policy for the extra legroom seats may clash with existing corporate business accounts, which offered priority boarding so business travelers could get first dibs on seats in the front of the plane or those with extra legroom.

“We recognize these changes may impact how business customers interact with Southwest Business,” the airline said. “We are actively working through details on how best to offer updated contractual benefits into future corporate travel agreements, and we will strive to keep you informed on any updates.”

The airline also announced it would change its policy regarding larger travelers who require more room. Starting Jan. 27, passengers who don’t fit within a seat’s armrests will be required to purchase an additional seat. Previously, the airline offered larger passengers the option to purchase a fully-refundable seat or ask for a free one at the gate.

Southwest Airlines’ final flight featuring open seating departed from Honolulu on Jan. 26 and arrived in Los Angeles this morning.

Southwest Airlines has offered open seating since its first flights to Houston and San Antonio from Love Field in Dallas in the summer of 1971. The company went public on the New York Stock Exchange in 1977.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 10:30

GM Shares Surge 7% After Surpassing Q4 Estimates, Raising Guidance, Planning $6B Stock Buyback

General Motors exceeded Wall Street’s fourth-quarter earnings expectations and forecast another year of “strong financial performance” in 2026. While revenue fell slightly short, the company announced a 20% dividend increase and a new $6 billion stock buyback program, according to CNBC and GM.

GM reported adjusted earnings per share of $2.51, beating estimates of $2.20, though revenue of $45.29 billion missed expectations.

Shares rose about 7% in early trading.

For 2026, GM projects net income of $10.3 billion to $11.7 billion, adjusted EBIT of $13 billion to $15 billion, and earnings per share between $11 and $13. These forecasts reflect continued investment of $10 billion to $12 billion as the company reevaluates its shift toward electric vehicles.

CEO Mary Barra said GM expects North American profit margins of 8% to 10% this year, up from 6.8% in 2025. She added that GM remains “in a strong position to return capital to shareholders.”

In 2025, GM posted net income of $2.7 billion and adjusted EBIT of $12.7 billion, both down sharply from 2024. Revenue fell 1.3% to $185.02 billion.

The company reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $3.3 billion, driven largely by more than $7.2 billion in special charges tied to EV cutbacks, legal issues, restructuring in China, and the shutdown of Cruise.

Barra said GM’s smaller Detroit headquarters is expected to save “hundreds of millions of dollars” each year.

The report says that the new buyback and dividend increase to 18 cents per share continue GM’s effort to reduce shares outstanding, which fell to 904 million at the end of 2025.

North America remained GM’s strongest region, though profits declined 28.1% to $10.45 billion. International operations improved, while losses in China narrowed.

CFO Paul Jacobson said U.S. tariffs cost GM $3.1 billion in 2025. Barra said the company is “hopeful” the U.S. and South Korea will finalize a trade deal with a 15% tariff, warning that higher tariffs could hurt costs.

“We’re really encouraging the countries to get the trade deal done,” Barra said.

GM continues to rely on South Korea for entry-level vehicles such as the Chevrolet Trax and Buick Envista, making trade policy a key issue for its future performance. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 10:20

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Crashes To 12 Year Lows

After Boomers and Gen X dragged The Conference Board Confidence measure down to eight month lows to end 2025, expectations were for a rebound to start 2026.

But, reality was far worse with the headline plunging from 94.2 (revised up from 89.1) to 84.5 (well below the 91.0 expected) - the lowest since May 2014.

The Present Situation Index - based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions - plummeted by 9.9 points to 113.7 in January (from an upwardly revised 123.6).

The Expectations Index - based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions - tumbled to 65.1 (from 74.6).

Source: Bloomberg

The Expectations Index has now tracked under 80 for 12 consecutive months, the threshold below which the gauge signals recession ahead.

“Confidence collapsed in January, as consumer concerns about both the present situation and expectations for the future deepened,” said Dana M Peterson, Chief Economist, The Conference Board.

“All five components of the Index deteriorated, driving the overall Index to its lowest level since May 2014 (82.2)—surpassing its COVID-19 pandemic depths.”

Among demographic groups, confidence on a six-month moving average basis dipped for all age groups in January, although consumers under 35 continued to be more confident than consumers age 35 and older.

Confidence among all generations trended downward in the month, but Gen Z remained the most optimistic of all generations surveyed.

By income, confidence on a six-month moving average basis ticked downward for all brackets, and consumers earning less than $15K remained the least optimistic among all income groups.

Consumer confidence continued to fade in January among all political affiliations, with the sharpest decline among Independents.

Peterson added:

“Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism. References to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices remained elevated.

Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January, and references to health/insurance and war edged higher.”

Finally, under the hood, The Conference Board survey shows the trend of a weaker labor market continued to accelerate...

Source: Bloomberg

While the labor market languishes, inflation expectations have tumbled (just like they did in the UMich survey)...

Source: Bloomberg

One final (slight) silver lining was that, on net, consumers’ views of their Family’s Current Financial Situation improved slightly in January, after a plunge into negative territory in December was revised upward to reveal a small net positive. 

So, the stock market soars near record highs, GDP is ripping, but consumer sentiment is collapsing?

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 10:10

"Did The White House Just Blink?" Border Patrol Boss 'Demoted' As Minneapolis Mayor Says Feds Are Leaving

On the heels of President Trump's reconciliatory statement earlier hailing his "very good call" with Governor Tim Walz, and decision to send Tom Homan to the frontlines in Minnesota...

"...we, actually, seemed to be on a similar wavelength," Trump said.

"I told Governor Walz that I would have Tom Homan call him, and that what we are looking for are any and all Criminals that they have in their possession.

The Governor, very respectfully, understood that, and I will be speaking to him in the near future.

He was happy that Tom Homan was going to Minnesota, and so am I! "

...The Atlantic reports that Gregory Bovino has been removed from his role as Border Patrol “commander at large” and will return to his former job in El Centro, California, where he is expected to retire soon, according to a DHS official and two people with knowledge of the change.

CNN's Kaitlan Collins further confirms that DHS has suspended Gregory Bovino’s access to his social media accounts effective immediately.

He spent yesterday responding to people who were criticizing him and raising questions about his unverified claims about Pretti.

This reported decision follows pressure from Senate Democrats who refused to allow the current DHS funding bill to move forward, this threatening another federal government shutdown.

Additionally, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey said after speaking with President Donald Trump that he expects that some federal agents will start leaving the city on Jan. 27.

“I expressed how much Minneapolis has benefited from our immigrant communities and was clear that my main ask is that Operation Metro Surge needs to end,” Frey wrote on X.

“The president agreed the present situation can’t continue.”

Trump said that the conversation with Frey was “very good” and that progress was made.

“Tom Homan will be meeting with [Frey] tomorrow in order to continue the discussion,” Trump posted on Truth Social.

The mayor said he would continue pushing for all federal agents to leave the city.

“Minneapolis will continue to cooperate with state and federal law enforcement on real criminal investigations—but we will not participate in unconstitutional arrests of our neighbors or enforce federal immigration law,” Frey stated on X.

Walz and Frey have repeatedly encouraged the public to protest and demonstrate against immigration operations taking place in the state, at some points using profanity to tell federal officers to leave.

Trump presented a three-point plan to Walz during the call, according to White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.

The plan calls for Walz, Frey, and other Minnesota leaders to turn over all criminal illegal immigrants who are currently in custody in state prisons and jails to federal authorities.

Those with active warrants or known criminal histories would be immediately deported, Leavitt said during a press briefing on Jan. 26.

The plan also calls for state and local law enforcement to agree to turn over all illegal immigrants who are arrested by local police and for local police to help federal law enforcement in arresting and detaining illegal immigrants who are wanted for crimes, especially violent crimes, she said.

We give the last words to General Flynn...

Did the WH just blink? https://t.co/lyIJ3kQBSq

— General Mike Flynn (@GenFlynn) January 27, 2026

...good question.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 09:59

Trump Admin Wins Appeal Of ICE Injunction In Minnesota

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

In a significant victory for the Trump Administration, a panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit lifted the injunction of U.S. District Judge Katherin Menendez, who prevented officers from arresting, detaining, pepper-spraying or retaliating against protesters in Minneapolis without probable cause.

In her Jan. 16 decision, Judge Menendez (a Biden appointee and former public defender) ruled in favor of the protesters suing the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and ICE. She found the plaintiffs were likely to succeed on claims that federal agents violated their First and Fourth Amendment rights.

The Eighth Circuit first flagged how Menendez ignored the fact that the record shows a wide range of conduct raising different conditions for law enforcement:

“We accessed and viewed the same videos the district court did. … What they show is observers and protestors engaging in a wide range of conduct, some of it peaceful but much of it not. They also show federal agents responding in various ways. Even the named plaintiffs’ claims involve different conduct, by different officers, at different times, in different places, in response to different behavior. These differences mean that there are no “questions of law or fact common to the class,” Fed. R. Civ. P. 23(a)(2), that would allow the court to decide all their claims in “one stroke.”

The panel also found Judge Menendez’s order unacceptably vague:

“Second, in addition to being too broad, the injunction is too vague.

…Even the provision that singles out the use of “pepper-spray or similar nonlethal munitions and crowd dispersal tools” requires federal agents to predict what the district court would consider “peaceful and unobstructive protest activity.” The videos underscore how difficult it would be for them to decide who has crossed the line: they show a fast-changing mix of peaceful and obstructive conduct, with many protestors getting in officers’ faces and blocking their vehicles as they conduct their activities, only for some of them to then rejoin the crowd and intermix with others who were merely recording and observing the scene.”

The panel found that Judge Menendez’s order left federal authorities in a dangerous position of not knowing when they could use these crowd control measures: “to the extent the injunction’s breadth and vagueness cause federal agents to hesitate in performing their lawful duties, it threatens to irreparably harm the government and undermine the public interest.”

Notably, Judge Menendez is the same judge reviewing an even more sweeping motion for an injunction to enjoin ICE operations, a filing from Minnesota Attorney General Keith Ellison that I have criticized as constitutionally meritless.

Here is the opinion: Tincher v. Noem

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 09:45

From Bad To Worse: UnitedHealth Posts First Annual Revenue Drop In Three Decades

Things have gone from bad to worse for UnitedHealth Group since late Monday.

First, the Trump administration's plan to keep Medicare Advantage rates roughly flat next year (read the report) sent shares tumbling during the after-hours session on Monday evening.

The selloff intensified in premarket trading after the 2026 outlook and quarterly earnings disappointment. The stock plunged as much as 17% ahead of the cash opening in New York.  

UNITEDHEALTH SINKS MORE THAN 9% ON MEDICARE RATES REPORT

WHITE HOUSE PLANS FLAT RATES FOR MEDICARE INSURERS IN 2027: WSJ

Good sale Kevin Hern, who sits on the House Subcommittee on Health https://t.co/D2dSoBf8ul

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 26, 2026

UNH shares were already down about 8% heading into the earnings release. Shares extended losses after the insurer forecasted a decline in 2026 revenue, marking its first annual contraction in more than three decades.

Summary of the 2026 Outlook:

• Adjusted EPS: Guided above $17.75, modestly ahead of the $17.69 Bloomberg Consensus.

• Revenue: Forecast above $439B, well below the $455B Bloomberg Consensus, signaling top-line pressure.

• Operating cash flow: Expected above $18B, trailing the $19.7B estimate.

The takeaway from this year's outlook: Profit guidance is slightly better than expected, but the revenue and cash flow outlooks underwhelm analysts' estimates tracked by Bloomberg.

For the fourth quarter, UnitedHealth posted adjusted earnings of $2.11 per share, while revenue climbed 12% year over year to $113.22 billion. Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg had been expecting $2.10 per share on revenue of $113.87 billion.

Summary of the 4Q24 Earnings:

Earnings: Adjusted EPS of $2.11 beat estimates by a cent but fell from $6.81 y/y. Reported EPS was $0.1 vs. $5.98 y/y.

Revenue: $113.22B, up 12% y/y, but missed Bloomberg Consensus of $113.87B.

Segment performance

• UnitedHealthcare: $87.11B, +18% y/y, above expectations.

• Optum total: $70.33B, +8% y/y, ahead of estimates.

• OptumRx: $41.46B, +16% y/y, beat estimates.

• OptumHealth: $25.54B, -0.5% y/y, roughly in line.

• OptumInsight: $5.04B, +5.5% y/y, modest beat.

Margins and costs:

• Medical care ratio: 92.4%, worse than the 92.1% estimate.

• Operating margin: 0.3%, sharply down from 7.7% y/y and well below the 2.9% estimate.

Enrollment: 49.76M members, below the 51.13M consensus.

The combination of the Trump administration's plan to keep Medicare Advantage rates roughly flat and the first annual revenue drop in three decades disappoints investors, with shares down 17% in premarket trading. This is the largest intraday decline since the May 13, 2025, 17.8% decline.

"We confronted challenges directly and finished 2025 as a much stronger company, giving us the momentum to better serve those who count on us and continue to improve our core performance," UNH CEO Stephen Hemsley wrote in a statement.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 09:30

The post Donald Trump’s $300 Billion Temper Tantrum Over Canada appeared first on CEPR.

The Grid Will Hold - Maybe - But The Bill Will Rise

Authored by Terry L. Headley via RealClearEnergy,

Americans are about to pay a lot more for electricity anyway — not because the grid fails, but because of how we now power it.

As another deep winter cold snap presses across much of the eastern United States, grid operators are doing what they always do in these moments: watching reserve margins, issuing conservation guidance, leaning on dispatchable generation, and quietly hoping nothing large trips offline at the wrong hour.

If history is a guide, the system will muddle through. It usually does. But survival isn’t the same thing as success. And it’s certainly not the same thing as affordability.

Even if there is no blackout, no emergency load shedding, and no headline-grabbing crisis, this weather event will still deliver a financial shock — one that will show up first in gas markets, then in wholesale power prices, and finally, months later, in the electric bills of households and businesses. That downstream billing impact is not accidental. It is structural. And it tells us far more about the state of the modern grid than any press release ever will.

Yes, the system will probably muddle through through this time. But one day in the not-too-distant future it won’t.

Counting the Cost of High Electric Bills

The modern American electric grid has become adept at avoiding disaster. Operators have more tools than ever: demand response, emergency imports, market signaling, conservation messaging, and sophisticated forecasting. What they do not have — at least not in sufficient quantity — is inexpensive, fuel-secure generation that can run whenever it is needed, regardless of weather.

In winter, the grid’s vulnerability is not generation capacity on paper. It is fuel deliverability in the real world.

Natural gas now sits at the center of that vulnerability. It dominates the marginal price of electricity across large portions of the country, particularly in regions like PJM Interconnection, which spans much of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest. When gas is abundant and cheap, markets hum along. When it is constrained by cold weather, competing heating demand, pipeline limits, or freeze-offs, prices rise sharply — even if no generator actually fails.

Gas does not have to break to become expensive. It only has to be needed.

That is exactly what happens during prolonged cold snaps. Residential heating takes priority. Storage withdrawals accelerate. Pipelines run near their limits. Power generators bid defensively to secure fuel. The result is predictable: spot gas prices spike at constrained hubs, wholesale electric prices follow, and utilities quietly rack up higher procurement costs.

No blackout. No drama. Just higher bills.

And high electric bills extract a quiet but relentless toll. They are not merely an inconvenience; they function as a regressive tax on households least able to absorb them and a hidden drag on the broader economy.

For families, higher electric bills mean hard tradeoffs. Money spent keeping the lights on is money not spent on groceries, prescriptions, school supplies, or savings. For seniors on fixed incomes, a volatile power bill can force choices between heat and healthcare. For working households, it turns routine weather events into financial stress tests.

For businesses, especially manufacturers and small employers, high electricity costs erode margins, discourage expansion, and quietly kill jobs. Energy-intensive operations either scale back, pass costs along to consumers, or relocate to regions with more stable and affordable power. Over time, this hollowing-out effect weakens local tax bases and strains public services.

For communities, persistently high power costs accelerate decline. Retail districts dim. Investment slows. Population loss follows opportunity. Utility shutoffs rise, charitable assistance is stretched thin, and local governments face growing pressure to subsidize basic services that were once affordable.

And for the grid itself, high bills often signal deeper structural problems—overreliance on volatile fuels, premature retirement of reliable generation, or policy-driven distortions that shift costs from balance sheets to ratepayers. The bill arrives monthly, but the damage accumulates quietly, year after year.

In the end, high electric bills cost more than dollars. They cost stability, competitiveness, and confidence—exactly the things a healthy economy and a secure society require.

The Renewable Mirage in Winter

Renewable advocates often argue that wind and solar will insulate consumers from fossil-fuel volatility. Winter stress events expose the weakness of that claim.

Solar output is minimal during winter peak hours. Wind can help — or not — depending on meteorological luck. Batteries can shave peaks for minutes or a few hours, but they can’t carry a grid through multi-day cold events. When the weather turns hostile, renewables become supplements, not solutions.

That doesn’t mean renewables are useless. It means they are conditional. And conditional resources cannot set the reliability floor of a winter grid.

Yet they increasingly shape the cost structure of the system. Renewable mandates, tax credits, and priority dispatch suppress energy prices when conditions are favorable, discouraging investment in dispatchable generation. But when conditions are unfavorable — when cold sets in and demand spikes — those same policies leave the grid leaning heavily on gas, with fewer alternatives available to keep prices in check.

The irony is hard to ignore: policies sold as a hedge against volatility often amplify it.

The Quiet Role of Coal

This is where coal enters the discussion — not as a political symbol, but as an economic stabilizer.

When coal still dominated the grid, winter pricing behaved differently. Coal plants stored months of fuel on site. They did not compete with residential heating for delivery. They did not depend on pipeline pressure or wellhead performance. When cold arrived, they simply ran.

That mattered.

Coal-heavy systems were not immune to outages or price swings, but they were insulated from the kind of fuel-driven volatility that now defines winter power markets. Coal did not set the marginal price every hour, but it capped how high that price could go. It acted as ballast — heavy, unglamorous, and stabilizing.

Consider the role played by plants like John E. Amos Power Plant in West Virginia. Facilities like this are not interchangeable widgets. They anchor voltage, reduce transmission stress, and provide firm megawatts precisely when they are most valuable. When they run, they suppress scarcity pricing across wide swaths of the grid. When they retire, that suppression disappears — and consumers pay the difference.

If Coal Still Dominated the Grid, This Cold Snap Would Barely Register

It is worth asking a simple, uncomfortable question: If coal still dominated the electric grid the way it once did, would this cold snap even matter?

From a consumer perspective, the answer is largely no.

In a coal-dominated system, winter cold was an operational issue, not a pricing crisis. Load went up, coal units ran harder, operators adjusted dispatch, and the system absorbed the stress. What did not happen — at least not routinely — were sharp fuel price spikes, emergency conservation messaging, or springtime bill surprises blamed on “market conditions.”

The reason was structural.

Coal plants carried weeks — sometimes months — of fuel on site. That fuel was already purchased, already delivered, and already insulated from real-time weather events. Coal did not compete with residential heating demand. It did not depend on pipeline pressure, compressor stations, or wellhead performance. When the temperature dropped, coal plants did not enter a bidding war with homeowners for survival. They simply ran.

That mattered because coal often sat at or near the margin during winter peaks. And when coal is the marginal fuel, prices behave differently. They move modestly. They reflect cost, not fear. They do not explode because of perceived scarcity three states away.

Contrast that with today’s system. Natural gas now sets the price in much of the country. Gas does not need to fail to become expensive; it only needs to be stressed. Cold weather alone is enough. Add pipeline congestion, freeze-offs, or even the risk of nonperformance, and markets immediately inject a scarcity premium. Wholesale electric prices spike — even if every generator shows up and no emergency is declared.

That volatility then works its way downstream. Utilities absorb higher procurement costs. Fuel adjustment clauses kick in months later. Consumers see higher electric bills long after the weather has passed and are told, vaguely, that it was “because of winter.”

Under a coal-dominated grid, that chain reaction was muted or absent. Gas prices might still rise for home heating, but electricity did not compound the pain. Households were not hit twice — once for gas, and again for gas-driven power prices. Industrial customers did not face the same level of real-time exposure. Regulators were not forced to explain why nothing went wrong yet bills still went up.

None of this means coal eliminated winter stress. It did something more valuable: it absorbed it. Coal acted as ballast — heavy, unfashionable, and quietly stabilizing. By removing that ballast without replacing its function, we did not make the grid more fragile in obvious ways. We made it more expensive in subtle, recurring ones.

That is why today’s cold snap will show up on electric bills even if the grid performs flawlessly. And that is why, when coal still dominated, it would have passed with little more than a footnote in an operator’s log.

The lights stayed on then, too.

The difference is that the bill did not quietly grow teeth afterward.

How the Bill Really Shows Up

Consumers rarely connect winter reliability events to their electric bills, because the impact is delayed and obscured.

Here is how it actually works:

1. Renewables go MIA.
2. Cold weather tightens reserves
3. Gas prices spike at regional hubs
4. Wholesale power prices rise during peak hours
5. Utilities absorb higher procurement costs
6. Fuel adjustment clauses catch up months later

By spring, customers open their bills and wonder why rates are higher, even though “nothing happened.” Utilities point to weather. Regulators nod. The underlying structural cause goes largely unexamined.

Industrial customers feel it immediately through real-time pricing and demand charges. Residential customers feel it later, but more painfully, as higher energy bills stack on top of already elevated heating costs.

This is not a one-off phenomenon. It is now a recurring feature of winter.

We Chose This…

None of this is accidental. We made policy choices that traded fuel security for market efficiency, and market efficiency for political aesthetics. We shifted the grid toward just-in-time fuel delivery. We retired on-site fuel without replacing its stabilizing function. We assumed markets would solve problems that are, at their core, physical.

Markets are excellent at pricing scarcity. They are less effective at preventing it.

The result is a grid that survives winter stress events — but at a higher and more volatile cost. We have optimized for avoiding blackouts, not for protecting consumers from price shocks.

The Bottom Line

The grid will likely get through this winter storm. Operators are competent. Procedures are in place. The system will bend, not break.

But bending has a price.

Renewables will be MIA. Gas prices will rise. Wholesale electric prices will spike. Retail bills will follow. And once again, consumers will pay for a system that values politics over reliability.

Coal’s continued presence on the grid does not eliminate these costs — but its absence guarantees they will be higher.

If we want affordable electricity in winter, we must stop designing a grid that depends on perfect conditions to keep prices low.

And the bill always comes due.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 09:15

US Home Prices Surged In November As Mortgage Rates Tumble

For the fourth straight month, US home prices rose on a MoM basis in November (according to the admittedly lagged and smoothed Case-Shiller data released today). The 0.47% MoM rise is the hottest since Dec 2024

Source: Bloomberg

On a year-over-year basis, there is a very modest inflection higher in the price appreciation (up from +1.32% to +1.39%).

"November's results confirm that the housing market has entered a period of tepid growth," said Nicholas Godec, CFA, CAIA, CIPM, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Regional patterns continue to illustrate a stark divergence.

Chicago leads all cities for a second consecutive month with a 5.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by New York at 5.0% and Cleveland at 3.4%.

These historically steady Midwestern and Northeastern markets have maintained respectable gains even as overall conditions cool.

By contrast, Tampa home prices are 3.9% lower than a year ago – the steepest decline among the 20 cities, extending that market's 13-month streak of annual drops.

Other Sun Belt boomtowns remain under pressure as well: Phoenix (-1.4%), Dallas (-1.4%), and Miami (-1.0%) each continue to see year-over-year declines, a dramatic turnaround from their pandemic-era strength.

Declining mortgage rates suggest the rebound in aggregate prices could be about to explode...

Source: Bloomberg

However, home price appreciation does seem to track very closely with bank reserves at The Fed (6mo lag), which implies prices are going continue to lag for the next few months...

Source: Bloomberg

Still, November's data is not exactly what President Trump is looking for from 'lower rates' helping his 'affordability' message.

Tyler Durden Tue, 01/27/2026 - 09:05