As ordered reported by the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure on December 18, 2025

As ordered reported by the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure on December 18, 2025

Ryan Routh Sentenced To Life Behind Bars For Trump Assassination Attempt

Update (Wednesday):

U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon sentenced Ryan Routh to life in prison for attempting to assassinate President Trump during the 2024 presidential election cycle, according to AP News.

Federal prosecutors said Routh spent months planning the attack, showed willingness to kill anyone who interfered, and expressed zero remorse during the trial. They asked the judge to impose a life sentence on Routh to "send a message that seeking to assassinate a Presidential candidate will result in the most severe punishment."

Prosecutors said that Routh "plotted painstakingly to kill President Trump, and took significant steps toward making that happen, culminating on September 15, 2024 at the Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, when he sat in a sniper hide that he had carefully constructed, chambered a round in the military-grade SKS rifle that he possessed illegally, and pointed it toward President Trump and his protective detail."

Routh's assassination plot of the president was only thwarted, prosecutors said, "by a Secret Service agent who noticed and disrupted Routh before Routh could fire a shot."

Judge Cannon previously rejected Routh's motion for her recusal when he was charged in the fall of 2024.

"Mr. Trump is the current Republican candidate for President in next month's election," Routh's lawyers wrote to Cannon in October 2024.

"On the campaign trail, he has repeatedly praised Your Honor for her rulings in his case. As the alleged victim here, he has a significant stake in the outcome of this case too. Were he to become President in the future, he would have authority to nominate Your Honor to a federal judgeship on a higher court were a vacancy to arise," they wrote.

Routh, who represented himself during the trial, was assigned a court-appointed attorney ahead of the sentencing hearing.

During closing arguments, Routh told the court in a rambling statement that no crime occurred because he never fired a shot.

After two hours of deliberation, the jury found him guilty on all five counts, including federal gun charges and assaulting a Secret Service agent.

A psychiatric evaluation concluded Routh was competent enough to stand trial.

*  *    * 

Authored by Jackson Richman via The Epoch Times,

A federal judge is set to sentence Ryan Routh on Feb. 4 for attempting to assassinate President Donald Trump. Prosecutors are seeking a life sentence while the defense is arguing for leniency.

The sentencing hearing is scheduled just months after Routh, 59, attempted to stab himself in U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon’s courtroom following a guilty verdict on multiple counts. Federal prosecutors said in a court filing that a life sentence was appropriate given what they described as months of deliberate planning and a clear intent to kill.

“He took steps over the course of months to assassinate a major presidential candidate, demonstrated the will to kill anybody in the way, and has since expressed neither regret nor remorse to his victims,” prosecutors wrote in a sentencing memorandum.

Defense attorneys objected to prosecutors’ attempt to enhance the sentencing by alleging Routh’s actions involved a terrorism element. Routh’s actions did not meet the legal definition of terrorism, the defense said.

During the trial, Routh attempted to portray himself as gentle and nonviolent, a characterization prosecutors sharply disputed, arguing that his planning showed clear intent to kill Trump.

The prosecution argued in a memo that Routh, “for all his protestations of peacefulness, is a dangerous man, at least when it comes to individuals who stand in his way.”

Dr. Heather Holmes wrote a report for the defense, which is unavailable to the public, that Routh suffers from Narcissistic Personality Disorder and Bipolar II. However, prosecutors argued that these diagnoses do not provide a basis to claim incompetence, insanity, or diminished capacity. Additionally, the disorders are not corroborated by the defendant’s prior medical or psychiatric records, they said.

The report should not be a justification for sentencing Routh to anything less than life in prison, the prosecution added.

The defense submitted character letters to Cannon.

One was from Darya Trotsenko, a citizen of Ukraine, where Routh served during the Eastern European country’s war with Russia.

She wrote that Routh “possessed a remarkable openness and kindness that drew people to him, and he was deeply respected and liked by everyone.”

Trotsenko also wrote that Routh’s “actions in Ukraine demonstrated a peaceful and constructive character.”

“I believe in justice, but I also believe in compassion and in judging a person by their whole life. Ryan has already shown, through his actions, that he is an asset to his community, not a threat,” she added.

Additionally, Trotsenko said that Routh should eventually be released from prison to be with his family and a contributing member of society.

Routh was convicted of attempted assassination of a major presidential candidate, possessing a firearm in furtherance of a crime of violence, assaulting a federal officer, being a felon in possession of a firearm and ammunition, and possession of a firearm with an obliterated serial number.

Routh targeted Trump on Sept. 15, 2024, while the then-Republican presidential nominee was golfing at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida. The attack occurred just months after a separate assassination attempt against Trump at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.

Trial evidence showed that Routh concealed himself outside the golf course perimeter, aiming an AK-style rifle through a hole in the fence. He was spotted by then-U.S. Secret Service Special Agent Robert Fercano, who was patrolling one hole ahead of Trump. At the time, Trump was golfing with longtime friend Steve Witkoff, now the U.S. special envoy to the Middle East.

Fearing for his own safety and that of the former president, Fercano fired a shot at Routh, who fled the scene and drove away. Routh was arrested shortly after on a nearby highway.

During the trial, a witness testified that he contacted law enforcement after Routh dropped off a box at his home in April, following a visit to the area near the golf course. Inside the box was a handwritten letter from Routh that read, in part, “Dear World, This was the assassination attempt on Donald Trump but I am so sorry I failed you. I tried my best and gave it all the gumption I could muster. It is up to you now to finish the job.”

The letter also offered $150,000 to anyone who could kill Trump.

Investigators searching Routh’s vehicle recovered multiple cell phones, a list of international flights scheduled for the afternoon and evening of the attack, and directions to Miami International Airport.

Cell phone records showed that between Aug. 18 and Sept. 15, Routh’s devices repeatedly connected to cell towers near Trump International Golf Club and Mar-a-Lago, Trump’s estate.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 13:55

As reported by the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry on October 27, 2025

Nuclear Nuggets From Goldman Offers Snapshot Of Reactor Space, Uranium Prices, Cameco

Our Dec. 23 note, "Why the Price of Uranium Is About to Soar," was published just days before uranium futures surged 25% to above $100 per pound. Prices have since corrected about 10% to around $91 per pound, but the broader thesis remains intact: up and to the right.

As we first outlined to readers since December 2020 (read here), uranium has emerged as the next gold. In an era of data centers and a rush to power up America with new nuclear reactors and to build next-generation grids capable of supporting explosive data-center growth and broader electrification trends, the world faces a massive uranium supply deficit that is only set to worsen by the end of the decade.

Drawing on Goldman's Global Reactor Tracker, we provide readers with the latest developments, data points, and progress across North America, Europe, and Asia that only reinforce our bullish thesis on Cameco Corp and peers. We expect this to remain a solid bet on the industry this decade. Just remember, the CCJ call was made in December 2020 at around $11 per share.

Analysts led by Brian Lee have done all the hard work in capturing a snapshot of the uranium industry.

Here are the most critical developments happening across the space:

North America

1/16/26 - United States - NASA and the DOE have renewed their commitment through an MoU to develop a fission power source for the Moon and future Mars missions. This initiative, driven by an Executive Order, prioritizes deploying a lunar surface reactor by 2030 to provide safe, efficient, and continuous electrical power for sustained lunar missions, independent of sunlight or temperature. This aligns with NASA's 2025 Integrated Lunar Power Strategy, which considers nuclear fission as a primary power generation technology.

1/29/2026 - Canada - Saskatchewan's government and SaskPower are evaluating large nuclear reactor technologies alongside existing SMR plans. This dual strategy aims for energy security and future electricity demand, utilizing Saskatchewan's uranium. GE Hitachi's BWRX-300 SMR is planned for mid-2030s deployment near Estevan, while Westinghouse's AP1000 and AP300 SMRs are also being explored. Large reactors could take 15-20 years to become operational.

1/29/2026 - Canada - Westinghouse and Tetra Tech Canada are collaborating to deploy Westinghouse's AP1000 and AP300 reactors in Ontario. This partnership supports Ontario's exploration of new nuclear generation at the Wesleyville site, where Ontario Power Generation (OPG) is evaluating various reactor technologies. The AP300 SMR aims for design certification by 2027 and operation by 2033.

Europe

1/19/26 - Slovakia- Slovakia and the USA have signed an Intergovernmental Agreement to advance Slovakia's nuclear power program. This includes a new 1,200 MWe unit, possibly a Westinghouse reactor, at the Bohunice Nuclear Power Plant, targeting 2040-2041 operation. This follows a feasibility study supporting SMRs in Slovakia by 2035.

1/23/2026 - Denmark - Denmark is studying new nuclear technologies, including SMRs, to assess their potential and risks. This aims to inform a possible lifting of its 1985 nuclear power ban, driven by energy security and growing SMR interest. The analysis, covering economic viability and regulatory needs, is due Q2 2026 and is supported by a Nuclear Power Alliance.

Asia and other

1/2/2026 - South Korea - South Korea's Nuclear Safety and Security Commission has issued an operating license for Saeul Nuclear Power Plant unit 3, an APR1400 reactor, with commercial operation targeted for January after fuel loading and testing. This unit, featuring enhanced safety measures and contributing 1.7% of Korea's total power, marks a significant step following the reversal of the country's nuclear phase-out policy.

1/2/2026 - Russia - The first VVER-TOI power unit at Russia's Kursk II nuclear power plant was connected to the grid on Dec 31, reaching an initial capacity of 240MW, with a full capacity of 1,250MW. This new unit, is part of a project to replace the older RBMK-1000 reactors at the existing Kursk plant, with all four new units targeted for operation by 2034 (here).

1/5/2026 - China - Unit 2 of China's Zhangzhou nuclear power plant, a Hualong One reactor, has entered commercial operation, completing the first phase of the project and bringing China Nuclear Power Corporation's total operating units to 27. This plant, once fully completed with six units, is expected to provide over 60 billion kilowatt-hours of clean energy annually, significantly contributing to China's energy structure and "dual carbon" goal (here).

1/6/2026 - Russia - Russia's Bilibino Nuclear Power Plant permanently shut down its last unit on December 30 after 51 years, replaced by the 70 MW Akademik Lomonosov floating nuclear power plant. This marks Rosenergoatom's first complete plant shutdown, with unique decommissioning challenges in the Arctic, aiming for full rehabilitation by 2055 (here).

1/15/2026 - Russia - Russia has approved a five-year life extension for Leningrad-4, an RBMK-1000 reactor, allowing it to operate for a total of 50 years until 2031 after comprehensive modernization and safety checks. This extension ensures continued electricity supply for northwest Russia and the production of medical isotopes, complementing the ongoing replacement of older RBMK units with new VVER-1200 reactors at the site.

1/16/2026 - China - China has commenced construction on Unit 1 of the Xuwei nuclear power project, a "world's first dual-coupling demonstration" combining Hualong One PWRs with a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor to provide both electricity and industrial heating. This innovative project is projected to annually supply 32.5 million tonnes of industrial steam and over 11.5 billion kWh of electricity, significantly reducing coal consumption and carbon emissions.

1/19/2026 - Japan - Tepco postponed the scheduled January 20 restart of unit 6 at its Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear power plant. The delay occurred after a safety alarm failed to sound during a control rod withdrawal test on January 17. Tepco identified and corrected an error in the alarm's settings by January 18, confirming its proper function. This Advanced Boiling Water Reactor had been offline since the Fukushima Daiichi accident (here).

1/19/2026 - Russia - Rosatom Director expects four foreign nuclear units to start in 2026: Bangladesh (Rooppur), Turkey (Akkuyu), and two in China. Rosatom exceeded 2025 goals despite sanctions, advancing Hungary's Paks II and Turkey's Akkuyu projects. He discussed yuan financing, 100-year unit operation, advanced nuclear tech, and the Northern Sea Route. Zaporizhzhia NPP Unit 1 was licensed in 2025, with generation conditional.

1/26/2026 - South Korea - South Korea confirmed plans for two new large nuclear reactors and 700 MW of SMR capacity by 2038, as part of its 11th Basic Plan. The strategy prioritizes nuclear and renewables to reduce carbon emissions, projecting increased electricity demand and a rise in carbon-free energy to 70% by 2038. KHNP will launch a bidding process for host cities by 2027, targeting reactor completion by 2037-2038.

1/26/2026 - Argentina - Argentina's CNEA plans to reactivate its Neuquén Heavy Water Industrial Plant (PIAP), mothballed since 2017. Once the world's largest facility, it will undergo maintenance and refurbishment to restart production, aiming for revenue generation and exports. A May 2025 MoU with Candu Energy supports the restart and long-term heavy water acquisition, with Argentina's plants needing 485 tonnes and surplus available for export.

1/19/2026 - Russia - Russia's Roscosmos has contracted NPO Lavochkin to develop a lunar nuclear power station by 2036, requiring three missions (2033-2035). This station will power Russia's lunar program and the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS), a joint Russia-China initiative also involving Rosatom and the Kurchatov Institute.

SMR announcement tracker

1/6/2026 - Bulgaria - Blue Bird Energy and Synthos Green Energy formed a joint venture to deploy up to six GE Vernova Hitachi Nuclear Energy BWRX-300 small modular reactors (SMRs) in Bulgaria, aiming to provide affordable, reliable energy. This expands Synthos Green Energy's European SMR strategy, which includes plans for 24 BWRX-300 units in Poland.

1/8/2026 - United States - Terrestrial Energy and Oklo have signed agreements with the US Department of Energy for pilot projects under the Advanced Reactor Pilot Program. Terrestrial Energy will develop a pilot Integral Molten Salt Reactor (IMSR) to expedite commercialization of its 4th generation technology, while Oklo will build a radioisotope pilot plant for medical and research isotopes. These agreements, leveraging Other Transaction Authority, aim to fast-track advanced reactor innovation and achieve criticality by July 2026.

1/8/2026 - China - China's ACP100 (Linglong One) SMR at the Changjiang site successfully completed its non-nuclear turbine test run on December 23. This 125 MWe SMR, developed by CNNC, is the world's first commercial land-based SMR to reach this milestone, verifying its conventional island systems. Commercial operation is targeted for the first half of 2026.

1/12/2026 - United States - Ameresco and NANO Nuclear signed an MoU to deploy NANO's KRONOS, ZEUS, and LOKI microreactors on US federal and commercial sites, with Ameresco leading EPC. DS Danseok also signed an MoU for NANO microreactors in South Korea. This builds on Ameresco's prior IMSR collaboration.

1/16/2026 - Slovakia - A Project Phoenix study confirmed Slovakia's suitability for SMR deployment, with four sites (Bohunice, Mochovce, Vojany, US Steel Košice) meeting baseline criteria. The next steps involve developing a regulatory framework, detailed site investigations, and public consultation. SMRs could be operational by 2035, enhancing energy security and decarbonization.

1/16/2026 - Uzbekistan - Uzbekistan and Rosatom are progressing on a nuclear power plant project, with first concrete for the SMR anticipated "well before December" 2026, targeting spring pouring. The project initially involved six RITM-200N SMRs (330 MW total), with the first unit critical by late 2029. The plan later expanded to include two large VVER-1000 units and two 55 MW RITM-200N SMRs. Excavation for the first SMR is underway in the Jizzakh region.

1/29/2026 - United States - NextEra Energy plans up to 6 GWe of SMR capacity, primarily for data centers. They are evaluating SMR manufacturers and have identified 6 GW of co-location opportunities at existing or new sites. The Duane Arnold plant will restart by 2029, supported by a Google power purchase agreement. This is part of NextEra's "15 by 35" strategy, aiming for 15-30 GW for data centers by 2035.

Global reactor critical updates

In the month of January, there have been few changes to new reactor construction starts, grid connections, shutdowns, or restarts.

Global reactor construction tracker

The epicenter of the world's nuclear reactor buildouts is China.

Global reactors under construction.

China.

Latest on spot uranium prices:

Spot momentum continues into the new year. Uranium pricing has shown continued strength in the new year, up +21% over the month of January, with spot climbing over $100/lb for the first time in almost two years. Spot market activity was robust with a total of 90 transactions involving 9mn/lbs of uranium. Pricing momentum intensified in the last week of January as Sprott raised funds and accumulated ~2.5mn lbs of uranium. The spot price currently sits at ~$91/lb compared to $82/lb in December.

Term pricing moderate. Term pricing increased in January by $2 to $88/lb, marking its highest level since May 2008. However, term market activity was moderate throughout the month, with one utility finalizing an off-market selection for uranium deliveries starting in 2029. A new utility also entered the market seeking approximately 1.2 million pounds of uranium for delivery in the same year. Additionally, non-U.S. utilities were actively evaluating offers for longer-term uranium and EUP requests.

KAP guidance update. On 2/2/26, KAP provided its 4Q25 operations and trading update, which included 2026 production guidance. The company's 2025 production of 25,839 tonnes uranium (tU) (67.2mn lbs) was in line with guidance of 25,000-26,500 tU. Additionally, KAP provided 2026 guidance of 27,500-29,000 tU (71.5-75.4mn lbs), signaling growth of 9% yoy that is driven by the planned ramp of its JV Budenovskoye, which is fully reserved under offtakes from 2024-2026. Importantly, the midpoint of 2026 guidance is ~5% below its subsoil use contract annual production of 29,697 tU, which was lowered by ~10% from 32,777 tU in August 2025. Additionally, the guidance is dependent on the availability of sulfuric acid, which was a key factor that weighed on production in 2025. We note that KAP could potentially lower its production another ~15% and be within the confines of the +/- 20% threshold provided in its Competent Person's Report.

Color on nuclear stocks:

Nuclear stocks have seen mixed performance over the past three months, with our nuclear coverage averaging a -13% return over the period compared to the S&P which returned 3%. Performance was collectively positive across uranium-levered names (CCJ/UEC), likely in large part owing to the recent rally in spot uranium pricing, while SMR technology players have traded significantly off. With respect to investor positioning, UEC was the only stock in our coverage which saw an increase in short interest, as the stock continues to rally, up 26%/35% over the past 3mo/12mo. Across the remainder of our coverage, short interest decreased across both CCJ and OKLO while SMR saw the largest decrease in short interest.

Cameco

Professional subscribers can read much more from Goldman here at our new Marketdesk.ai portal

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 13:40

Japan Is Normalizing: Risks To The Yen Carry Trade

Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

“Japan Bond Meltdown Sends Yields to Record High on Fiscal Fears,” read a January 2026 Bloomberg article. Headlines like this, and many others, warn that Japan’s abrupt interest rate increase is an omen of dire trouble. While that may be the case, given decades of economic woes, declining demographics, and extreme levels of outstanding debt, we have an alternative view.

Might the recent sharp rise in Japanese yields simply reflect the normalization of its economy, inflation, and interest rates following decades of stagnation and very aggressive monetary and fiscal policies?

Whether you follow Japan or not, its situation is incredibly important for investors because it is a major provider of global liquidity. Instead of being overly dramatic about the slim chance of a near-term Japanese crisis, we prefer to focus on how Japan normalizes policy after years of artificially suppressed interest rates and how it will impact the yen carry trade.

Japan’s Lost Decades

To help appreciate Japan’s current situation and why some pundits claim that Japan is near the end of its fiscal line, we share the links to prior articles: Japan’s Lost Decades & Are We on Japan’s Path Of Stagnation? The following quotes from the articles summarize Japan’s plight.

Japan’s prolonged stagnation traces back to the collapse of one of the largest asset bubbles in history in the late 1980s. As we explain, enormous real estate and stock market valuations imploded, leaving banks burdened with bad loans and unable to lend effectively. For example: “from 1956 to 1986 land prices in Japan increased by 5000% even though consumer prices only doubled in that time,” and its Nikkei stock index P/E was close to 70 at its peak.

The government chose to support failing banks and extend the economic pain over decades through massive government spending and near-zero interest rate policies rather than take a short-term, deeper contraction.

 They elected the latter, saving their banks and relying on massive government spending to insulate the economy.

This response contributed to a fragile financial system with “zombie” banks, suppressed lending, and a private sector unable to drive robust growth, leading to deflationary pressures and very low economic growth for decades.

Demographics and structural factors have compounded the issue. Japan’s population has been aging and declining, with low birth rates and minimal immigration dampening labor force growth and consumption, making growth harder to achieve. Additionally, long-standing fiscal dominance — where policy focuses on funding government debt and supporting markets — along with weak incentives for productive private investment, have kept economic activity subdued.  

Japan Removes Its Financial Support

Prior to the last few years, Japan experienced decades of economic malaise. The post-WWII economic boom was spectacular, and the echo payback was equally stunning.

A recent uptick in inflation, GDP, and interest rates has allowed Japan to gradually remove the monetary policy crutch that has supported its banks, economy, and financial markets for decades.  This primarily entails the Bank of Japan (BOJ) reducing its balance sheet and letting interest rates gravitate toward normal market levels.  

Some investors watching the sharp increase in interest rates warn that rates are rising because investors are pricing in rising default risks. Others, including us, think this is the normalization process.

The first graph below shows the current benchmark interest rates for Japanese 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year bonds.

The recent increase in interest rates from negative levels is significant. The next graph shows that the inflation rate has recently been much higher than in the pre-pandemic era.

Next, we combine the two graphs to arrive at real (inflation-adjusted) yields. As shown, the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year real yields are below 1%, albeit well above the -1% real yields that persisted from 2016 to 2022. They are now in line with the pre-financial crisis period.

The takeaway from the three graphs is that Japan has allowed yields to gravitate toward a normal spread relative to the inflation rate. The next graph, courtesy of Bloomberg, provides global context. Inflation expectations are very similar for Japan and the US. However, Japanese yields, despite the recent increase, are about 2% below US Treasury yields.

The charts signal that Japanese interest rates and inflation are moving toward levels more in line with those of other large economies.

Economic Signs Of Normalization

The normalization argument is further supported by a recent spurt in economic activity. The graph below shows Japan’s economy was stagnant for 23 years, ranging from 1997 to 2020. However, economic activity has accelerated in earnest since the second half of 2022.

Furthermore, the Nikkei 225, Japan’s primary stock index, broke to new record highs, finally eclipsing the prior peak seen at the end of 1989.  

Lastly, Japan’s debt, while rising nominally, is falling as a percentage of economic activity. As we share below, its Debt-to-GDP ratio peaked at 2.58x and has since moderated to 2.32x. It is still exceptionally high but trending in the right direction. For context, the US debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 1.21x, which is considered problematic by some economists.

Japan Is In A Pickle

Normalization after years of significant fiscal and monetary stimulus will not be easy.  For example, the public, used to near-zero inflation, is growing uneasy about inflation and unhappy with calls for fiscal austerity. Its policymakers, fiscal and monetary, are being forced to decide between economic growth and inflation.

Policymakers could contain inflation by raising interest rates and implementing fiscal austerity, thereby resulting in yen appreciation. The risk is that they reduce economic growth in the process. Conversely, they could keep rates at current levels and increase fiscal spending, as some politicians want, but risk that inflation keeps increasing.

As if that decision isn’t hard enough, they must also manage interest rates to accommodate the funding of Japan’s excessive outstanding debt. As we noted earlier, Japan has a debt-to-GDP ratio almost twice that of the US. Higher interest rates increase the government’s interest expense. In turn, they must issue more debt to fund existing debt. This is the trap noted by Japan’s bond vigilantes.

However, Japan’s debt situation is not comparable to the US’s. To wit, John Authers of Bloomberg recently reminded us why Japan can maintain higher levels of debt than most other countries. Per his missive, Japan Needn’t Drive An International Crisis:

Another key argument against a crisis is that, despite its huge pile of debt, Japan is stable. It maintains a current account surplus (unlike the US). Also, unlike the US, it has a positive net international investment position, meaning that it holds more foreign assets than foreigners hold assets in Japan:

Further, he argues:

Moreover, fears of an imminent fiscal accident appear overstated. Political constraints may limit aggressive fiscal expansion, the primary deficit has been shrinking, and authorities retain extensive tools to manage yield volatility. Unlike sudden crises driven by foreign capital flight, Japan’s challenge is one of gradual adjustment, not sudden loss of confidence.

Global Liquidity- Yen Carry Trade

As we led the article, we think the most important aspect of Japan’s normalization path is its impact on global liquidity through the yen carry trade. Thus, before discussing tough decisions facing Japan and their potential impacts on the yen carry trade, we share a basic example of how the yen carry trade works.

• A US-based hedge fund borrows ¥15.3 billion yen ($100 million) at 0.75% for one month.

• They convert the yen to $100 million and purchase shares of IBM.

• The return on the trade depends on three components. First, the borrowing cost (0.75%). Second is the change in the yen-dollar exchange rate. Lastly, there is IBM’s price change.

Recently, borrowing costs in Japan have risen but remain well below US rates. Despite higher rates, the yen has depreciated against the dollar, which benefits the carry trade returns and more than offsets the higher interest costs. However, bear in mind that an appreciating yen can easily offset the interest rate differential, making the yen carry trade less favorable. 

If Japan can gradually normalize its interest rate and support its currency with minimal volatility, the yen carry trade can unwind in a market-healthy fashion. But, as we saw in 2024, sudden shocks to the yen can trigger a swift reversal of the carry trade, harming global stock and bond markets.  

Summary

In our opinion, Japan’s rising yields and currency volatility reflect an economic normalization. We do not think Japan is on the verge of fiscal collapse. However, the transition from a monetary- and fiscal-policy-dependent economy to a free-market economy could significantly affect a major source of global market liquidity. Policy decisions that cause sharp, sudden changes in rates and or the yen can have a notable effect on stock and bond markets worldwide.

We witnessed this in August 2024, when the BOJ unexpectedly raised interest rates. As a result, the Nikkei 225 fell by over 12% in one day, and the S&P 500 corrected by 6% over a few days. The BOJ and government seem more aware that their decisions have a significant impact on global markets. We trust they will aim for a smooth normalization process, free of market shocks. But understand that their endeavor to return to a free-market economy entails significant risks for Japanese and global markets

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 13:20

James Bradshaw of the Globe and Mail reports CEO’s payout, workplace relationship spur upheaval at Ontario pension plan:

Senior executives at CAAT, a $23-billion Ontario pension plan, raised concerns about the approval of an unusually large payout to the plan’s chief executive officer, setting in motion a governance crisis that has resulted in abrupt departures and scrutiny from the provincial regulator, according to sources.

Board chair Don Smith was recently suspended from his position on the board of trustees at the CAAT Pension Plan by the union that appointed him, three sources told The Globe and Mail.

The Globe spoke with eight sources familiar with the matter to understand what caused recent upheaval in CAAT’s senior ranks. The Globe is not identifying the sources because they are not authorized to discuss the matter.

CAAT is a multiemployer pension plan that serves Ontario’s colleges and more than 800 public- and private-sector employers. It has a total of about 125,000 members.

Mr. Smith’s suspension was a reaction to the abrupt departure of three executives from the plan in January, three sources said, amid concerns over decisions approved by the board. Two of the key flashpoints were a $1.6-million vacation payout to chief executive officer Derek Dobson that board leadership approved last year in lieu of vacation time, and a workplace relationship that Mr. Dobson has been having with a CAAT employee that the board sanctioned. Mr. Smith oversaw both of those decisions.

In response to questions from The Globe, Emily Visser, a spokesperson for the Ontario Public Service Employees Union, confirmed in a statement “that we have suspended one trustee from their position, pending an internal investigation,” but did not name the board member.

OPSEU represents staff at many employers that participate in the CAAT plan, and appoints nine trustees to CAAT’s board. OPSEU appointed Mr. Smith.

Ms. Visser said in the statement that the union has been reassured that CAAT is in strong financial health.

CAAT spokesperson Stephen Hewitt also confirmed in a written statement that OPSEU “suspended Don Smith as its nominee,” but said Mr. Smith “remains a trustee.”

OPSEU representatives “have the right to remove him from the board. He currently serves as chair until he is formally removed,” Mr. Hewitt said.

There is sufficient concern about governance at CAAT that the provincial regulator overseeing pension plans, the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario, is also looking into what transpired at CAAT and whether there was a failure of governance, three sources said.

FSRA is “aware of recent developments at CAAT” but does not comment on its supervisory activities at specific pension plans, spokesperson Russ Courtney said in a statement. He added that the regulator’s mandate “includes promoting good administration of pension plans.”

Mr. Hewitt said CAAT maintains “a regular and ongoing dialogue with FSRA, and this has been the case with respect to the recent leadership changes at the plan.”

Over the course of several months, tensions inside the pension plan’s senior ranks have been building, four sources said. They came to a head in late January when three of CAAT’s top executives – chief investment officer Asif Haque, chief financial officer Mike Dawson and chief pension officer Evan Howard – left the pension plan on Jan. 19.

In an all-staff e-mail the next day, reported by The Globe, Mr. Dobson said they were “leaving the organization on good terms,” but did not provide a reason for their departure. Mr. Dobson also held a hybrid town hall to answer staff questions on Jan. 22, CAAT said.

In his e-mail to staff, Mr. Dobson cited a need for “the right alignment of our executive team.”

In fact, the three executives left the organization after they warned board members they had lost faith in Mr. Dobson’s leadership, three sources said. However, the board stood by Mr. Dobson, and the organization negotiated terms for the three senior leaders to leave CAAT, the sources said.

Mr. Haque, Mr. Howard and Mr. Dawson did not respond to multiple requests for comment.

Mr. Hewitt said in the plan’s statement that decisions on executive departures are a confidential matter between the former employees and CAAT. He added that CAAT’s board “continues to have confidence” in the CEO and his ability to lead the organization.

CAAT was founded in 1967 to serve Ontario’s colleges of applied arts and technology. Under Mr. Dobson, it has expanded rapidly to serve a wider array of employers, with more than $23-billion of assets and $6-billion in funding reserves. The Globe has been a participating employer in CAAT since 2022.

The plan is well funded, with a 124-per-cent funding ratio, meaning it has $1.24 in assets for every dollar it expects to owe in pensions, according to the pension plan’s most recent disclosures. The concerns under investigation do not appear to relate to its investment performance, solvency or ability to pay pensions.

The senior executives who left CAAT approached its board in part to raise concerns about the $1.6-million payout to Mr. Dobson that the board approved in November, to compensate him for unused vacation time, three sources said. The payment was the third such payout that Mr. Dobson has received at CAAT, including a previous payment in 2019, two sources said.

The recent payout has invited scrutiny over whether the board applied enough rigour in approving such a large one-time payment to its CEO.

CAAT’s board “is aware of concerns” about vacation payments made to the CEO, and appointed an independent expert “to conduct a governance review” in 2025, Mr. Hewitt said.

The review covers CAAT’s governance policies, procedures and practices and is in advanced stages, he said.

Unlike most large public-sector pension funds in Canada, CAAT does not disclose compensation details for its most senior executives.

Another source of tension has been the personal relationship Mr. Dobson has been having with another CAAT employee for more than a year.

Mr. Dobson disclosed to CAAT’s board that he “had commenced a consensual relationship with a CAAT employee” in November, 2024, Mr. Hewitt said.

The employee does not report directly to Mr. Dobson, whose “full compliance” with company policies was reviewed by external legal counsel, CAAT said.

“Both the CEO and the employee will continue in their current roles within the organization and CAAT has implemented a number of measures to prevent any perceived conflicts of interest or perceptions of favouritism in light of the relationship,” Mr. Hewitt said.

Those measures include barring the CEO from having input into performance appraisals, compensation decisions or potential promotions, CAAT said.

But internally, sources said, there are still questions about the propriety of the relationship, and whether trustees should have sanctioned it given the CEO’s authority over employees.

There have been other changes to CAAT’s leadership team in recent months. The plan’s chief human resources officer left last June, and its senior vice-president of technology and IT services management as well as its head of policy and government relations departed early this year. 

Ana Pereira of the Toronto Star also reports CAAT pension plan board chair suspended by OPSEU amid governance crisis:

The chair of the CAAT pension plan board, Don Smith, has been suspended amid a governance crisis at the plan.

On Tuesday, the Globe and Mail reported that Smith oversaw an approval made by the board to grant CAAT CEO Derek Dobson a $1.6 million vacation in-lieu payout and sanctioned Dobson’s relationship with a CAAT employee. 

CAAT, which manages the pensions of more than 120,000 public- and private-sector workers across Canada (including Toronto Star employees), confirmed that the Ontario Public Service Employees Union (OPSEU) removed Smith as its nominee on the plan’s board of trustees.

Smith, who is also a professor at Georgian College, remains as trustee.

OPSEU members of the sponsors committee have the right to remove him from the board, said CAAT, and he currently serves as chair until formally removed.

A web page containing Smith’s biography has been withdrawn from CAAT’s website. 

The news comes after CAAT announced the sudden departure of three senior executives — the chief investment officer, chief financial officer and chief pension officer — last Wednesday. 

Originally created to support Ontario colleges, CAAT now serves 800 participating employers with $23 billion in assets. The plan is well-funded, holding $1.24 for every dollar in promised benefits. In the unlikely event of a deficit, all pensions would continue to be paid in full, as is required by law. 

In a statement, CAAT spokesperson Stephen Hewitt said reasons behind employee departures are confidential. 

Sometime prior to December 2025, the board of trustees became aware of “concerns” that had been raised with respect to vacation payments made to Dobson, according to Hewitt, confirming the $1.6 million attributed to anonymous sources in the Globe. 

He said the board has appointed “an independent expert” to conduct a governance review, which is on track to be completed in the “coming weeks.” 

“If changes are needed to continue to provide effective governance and align with best practices, the board will consider them,” Hewitt said, emphasizing that CAAT continues to “have confidence” in the CEO’s leadership. 

In a statement, OPSEU president JP Hornick said the union has “no influence on the administrative decision-making of the CAAT Pension Plan Board of Trustees” and that one trustee has been suspended pending an investigation.  

“The union continues to be invested in the ongoing protection of our members’ pensions and has been reassured by CAAT Pension Plan that the plan is in strong financial health,” Hornick said. 

CAAT also confirmed that, in November 2024, Dobson informed the board of trustees that he had begun a consensual relationship with a fellow employee. The disclosure was compliant with the pension plan’s policies on workplace relationships, said Hewitt, and the CEO’s conduct was reviewed by external lawyers. 

“The employee is long tenured, was not hired by the CEO, is not a direct report of the CEO and is multiple levels removed in terms of reporting lines,” added Hewitt. He said Dobson will not have an input in the employee’s performance appraisals, compensation decisions or promotions. 

Both the CEO and the employee will continue in their roles at CAAT. 

Dobson has been leading the pension plan since 2009. He is also a sitting member of the Pension Policy Council at the C.D. Howe Institute.  

Josh Welsh of Benefits Canada also reports a Canadian pension plan faces governance crisis amid executive departures:

A governance crisis is unfolding at CAAT Pension Plan, following concerns raised by senior executives about an unusually large payout to CEO Derek Dobson, according to the Globe and Mail.

Board chair Don Smith has been suspended from his position by the Ontario Public Service Employees Union (OPSEU), which appointed him as a trustee. The suspension came after three senior executives - chief investment officer Asif Haque, chief financial officer Mike Dawson, and chief pension officer Evan Howard - abruptly left the organization on January 19, according to the Globe.

OPSEU spokesperson Emily Visser confirmed the trustee suspension but stated the union has been reassured of CAAT's strong financial health.

The departures followed internal disputes over two key issues: a $1.6-million vacation payout to Dobson approved by the board in November 2024 in lieu of unused vacation time, and a workplace relationship between Dobson and a CAAT employee that trustees sanctioned.

Both decisions were overseen by Smith.

According to sources cited by The Globe, the three executives warned board members they had lost faith in Dobson's leadership, but the board stood by the CEO and negotiated exit terms for the departing executives.

Meanwhile, CAAT spokesperson Stephen Hewitt confirmed the pension plan has appointed an independent expert to conduct a governance review.

To fill the Plan's critical roles, CAAT has since promoted 17-year veteran Kevin Fahey to the role of CIO and appointed former trustee Scott Blakey as an interim executive vice president.

CAAT serves approximately 125,000 members across Ontario's colleges and more than 800 public- and private-sector employers. Despite the upheaval, the Plan remains financially stable with a 124-per cent funding ratio, according to the Plan’s most recent disclosures. 

CAAT has experienced additional leadership turnover recently. Their chief human resources officer departed in June, while the senior vice-president of technology and IT services management and the head of policy and government relations left earlier this year, according to the Globe.

The Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario (FSRA) told the Globe they are now reviewing the situation for potential governance failures.   

Wow, I knew something was up at CAAT Pension Plan when I covered the departure of the CIO, CFO and CPO in late January.

Never in my career working at pensions or in almost 20 years of covering them did I ever see a CIO, CFO and CPO all "resigning" on the same day. It was extremely odd and now we get more information as to the context surrounding the departures.

Someone obviously leaked the story to James Bradshaw at the Globe and I'm glad they did or else people would be completely clueless.

I'm going to share my thoughts and will be brutally honest.

CAAT Pension Plan might be in great financial shape and have great investment and other professionals but this governance crisis shows me that OPSEU has no idea what is really going on there and this was not handled correctly.

Importantly, following these serious allegations, the CEO and Chair should have been placed on administrative leave pending the findings of an independent report.

I'm shocked at the nonsense I'm reading in these articles, at a minimum, the relationship between Don Smith and Derek Dobson needs to be examined.

And to be truthful, after all this, Derek Dobson should just step down for the good of the organization. 

I don't see how he can continue being the CEO after all this, he has surely lost the confidence of members and many employees.

When three senior execs all lose confidence in the CEO, the Board doesn't side with the CEO and make arrangements for their exit, the Board immediately places the three execs and senior executives on administrative leave pending an in-depth investigation and the independent report must be made public to all members.

That's the way I would have handled it if I was Chair at CAAT Pension Plan just like if I was the Chair at any other pension fund and a similar situation.

For example, La Caisse had a huge India bribery scandal, I would have placed all execs on administrative leave including their head of Infrastructure pending the findings of a detailed independent report which I would have made public. 

Instead what happens all too often is the execs make off like bandits with huge severance packages and nobody has any idea what the hell happened.

In the case of CAAT, the Board "arranged for the departure of the three senior execs," meaning they got a big severance and in return have to sign a non disclosure agreement.

And if Derek Dobson is forced to stepped down,  I can guarantee you he'll get a whopping severance package for all his years of service and CAAT's members who have modest salaries and pensions will be left in the dark as far as details.

On that subject, CAAT Pension Plan and HOOPP are the only two pension plans I cover that do not disclose the top five salaries of senior execs even though by law, the Financial Services Regulatory Authority of Ontario (FSRA) forces them to disclose this information (so I'm told).

It's a matter of good governance -- Governance 101 -- you always publish the top five compensations at the pension fund you're in charge of. 

Now, as far as the specific charges again Derek Dobson, let me be quick.

Vacation pay. Who accumulates $1.6 million in vacation pay over the years? Unheard of, this is why other organizations force everyone including the CEO to take their full vacation or lose their pay.

A consensual relationship with an employee at CAAT.  Even if he disclosed it to the Board and was approved by an external legal representative, it's a) bad judgment on his part and b) there's always a perception of conflict of interest even if the employee doesn't report to him.

Totally unethical in my opinion, if you're the CEO and want to have a relationship with an employee, fine but that employee can't continue working at the same organization. Period.

Lack of confidence from three senior execs. In my opinion, this is the most serious charge and warrants a full investigation. When the CIO, CFO and CPO go to the Board and express lack of confidence in their leader, you don't side the CEO and send them packing and if you do, you better have a damn good reason for doing so. 

In short, CAAT's Board collectively screwed up here and I'm wondering whether they need a professional board made up of qualified independent professionals with experience (I'm NOT interested but can recommend top guns).

This is a full-blown governance crisis at CAAT and it's not over, more to come.

And the sad part is poor Kevin Fahey, the new CIO, and other CAAT employees are just trying to do their job and this causes unneeded distractions.  

I stand by Kevin and his investment team but after reading this, I cannot see how Derek Dobson can continue to be CAAT Pension Plan's CEO and Plan Manager. 

Again, for the good of the organization, he should step down.

Those are my thoughts on this governance crisis at CAAT. I want o make it clear that I have nothing against Derek Dobson, think he did a wonderful job at CAAT for many years and promoted DB plans but enough is enough, the place needs to change at the very top.

As far as Don Smith, he needs to immediately resign as a trustee and the entire Board needs to be reviewed to make sure they are qualified and doing their job properly.

Alright, back to trading these crazy markets, unlike the senior pension fund managers I cover, I don't have the luxury of $1,6 million vacation pay or huge bonuses at the end of the calendar of fiscal year.

And neither do CAAT's members, they deserve the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.

Below, the CAAT Pension Plan is committed to providing a secure retirement income for its members and provide innovative retirement income solutions to our employers. Listen to insights from CAAT’s 2024 annual performance update.

It's a shame this happened but I'm convinced CAAT Pension Plan will come out of this a lot stronger.  

…

Putin Touts Energy Ties With China, While India Still Dodges Issue Of Russian Oil Ban

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held a video link call on Wednesday, wherein Putin hailed Russia's energy relationship with China as "strategic" while emphasizing that Beijing has become Moscow's top buyer of oil and gas since the Ukraine 'special military operation' began.

The timing is the most notable aspect, given the call came just two days after Trump announced he would cut tariffs on Indian goods in exchange for New Delhi halting purchases of Russian crude. Trump also said Washington could lift an additional 25% penalty tariff imposed over India's energy cooperation with Moscow.

The curious thing is the lack of confirmation of the oil purchase cutoff from the Indian side. As yet, there's no clear indicator that this key element in the Modi-Trump deal has been ratified. On Wednesday FT reports India hails Donald Trump ‘deal’ but ducks discussing Russian oil ban. The reality remains that there are also technical problems with US crude imports replacing Russian...

"WTI is simply too light to be considered as Urals replacement" for refiners in India following this week’s announcement of a US-India deal on tariffs, June Goh, an analyst at Sparta Commodities said in a note. 

And this is likely why Putin seized the opportunity to tout his energy ties with China. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov has also reminded the world in a statement to TASS that Russia tops the list in terms of oil and pipe gas supplies to China.

"China continues to hold the first place among our foreign trade partners. Russia is fifth among the countries - trade counterparties of China. The task was set during the talk to take efforts for further development of trade and economic ties, in particular, for example, in the energy sphere. Russia is the top supplier of oil and pipe gas to China," Ushakov said.

Kremlin estimates say China has purchased more than $230 billion worth of Russian energy since the invasion.

Putin himself in the call acknowledged that bilateral trade saw a "slight decline" last year, including a "correction in indicators," but insisted Russia remains "among the leaders in energy supplies to China." He vowed the two will continue to closely coordinate together on a range of issues.

As for the India trade, Reuters reported earlier that Indian refiners have yet to receive instructions to fully stop buying Russian oil and are awaiting a formal government decision. Any official halt would be followed with a transition period, no doubt. Trump's earlier statements may have been too far out front compared to what Modi actually agreed or said yes to.

Hours after Xi and Putin spoke, President Trump also held a call with the Russian leader Wednesday. They last spoke by ‍phone in late November, at which time a conciliatory Trump praised America's "extremely strong" relations with China. Xinhua News Agency was the first revealed the Trump-Xi call.

Trump's own statement on Truth Social followed...

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 13:00

NFL: ICE Will Not Be Present At Super Bowl

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

Federal immigration officers will not make an appearance at the Super Bowl this year, NFL Chief Security Officer Cathy Lanier announced at a news conference on Feb. 2.

“There are no planned ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] or immigration enforcement operations that are scheduled around the Super Bowl or any Super Bowl-related events,” Lanier said during the briefing.

The Seattle Seahawks will face the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LX on Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, about 45 miles south of San Francisco.

 

The NFL’s announcement differed from an earlier statement made by Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem in October 2025, after Super Bowl officials announced that outspoken anti-ICE performer Bad Bunny had been selected as this year’s halftime headliner.

 

Noem told conservative commentator Benny Johnson on his podcast that ICE officers would be present at the event and “all over that place.”

President Donald Trump has previously criticized the artists selected to headline the Super Bowl halftime show, noting that both Bad Bunny and Green Day have been outspoken critics of him.

“I’m anti-them. I think it’s a terrible choice. All it does is sow hatred. Terrible,” Trump told the New York Post.

NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has voiced support for Bad Bunny, who won the Latin Grammy award for Album of the Year on Feb. 1.

“We’re confident it’s going to be a great show,” Goodell said. “He understands the platform that he’s on, and I think it’s going to be exciting and a united moment.”

Bad Bunny arrives at the 68th annual Grammy Awards in Los Angeles on Feb. 1, 2026. Jordan Strauss/Invision/AP

San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie said his priority would be public safety as the city welcomes people from around the world during the Super Bowl.

“Our city teams have been preparing for months,” Lurie posted on Feb. 2 on X.

About 1.3 million visitors are expected to attend the game or related events in the San Francisco Bay Area this weekend, the San Francisco International Airport estimated.

San Francisco police and local law enforcement are focused on protecting the public, including the right to “peaceful expression,” the mayor added.

“We will continue to uphold San Francisco’s longstanding policies that keep local law enforcement focused on keeping our city safe—not on federal immigration enforcement,” Lurie stated.

Even so, the city expects the Super Bowl to attract criminal activity, including human trafficking, according to Lurie.

The San Francisco Police Department and other authorities were conducting targeted operations to prevent exploitation of vulnerable people, he said.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 12:40

January US Jobs Report Rescheduled For February 11

The government reopened after another theatrical two-day shutdown, but that doesn't mean that Friday's payrolls report will come when it is due (after all, it's not like the BLS had 30 days to prepare for it, oh wait, they did). Instead, the January employment report has been rescheduled for Wednesday, Feb. 11, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The data, originally due Feb. 6, was delayed by the partial government shutdown. BLS announced the changes Wednesday, shortly after funding for a number of agencies, including the Labor Department, was restored.

January’s consumer price index report, originally due Feb. 11, is now scheduled for Friday, Feb. 13, the BLS also said.

Other BLS reports that were due this week, including December’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and the Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment release, were also rescheduled.

The partial shutdown ended late Tuesday after President Donald Trump signed into law a funding deal he negotiated with Senate Democrats. The Labor Department, and most other government agencies, are now funded through Sept. 30.

In addition to the usual monthly payrolls and unemployment data, the January jobs report also includes highly anticipated revisions to annual employment. Those are expected to show that job growth was notably weaker in the year through March 2025 than initially reported.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 12:20

Chuck Schumer Claims Voter ID Laws Are The Return Of "Jim Crow"

The Democrat Party strategy relies heavily on the tactic of associating everything they don't like with the race-based conflicts of the past, even though they have no knowledge or understanding of basic history.  Their intention is to energize their low-IQ base with hot button rhetoric while blithely dismissing any reasonable debate on otherwise common sense policies.  

Once something is deemed "racist", all constructive discussion goes out the window.  

It is crystal clear that the Democrats are desperate to sabotage voter ID laws at any cost.  Why?  Because they know that illegal immigrants vote despite laws against it, and they also know voter fraud is easier with mail-in ballots devoid of any concrete identification process.  In other words, Democrats know they will never win another election unless they have the option to cheat.  

The SAVE Act would impose Jim Crow style restrictions on voting. It will be dead on arrival in the Senate.

My statement: pic.twitter.com/OAJRsmgkWn

— Chuck Schumer (@SenSchumer) February 2, 2026

It's the obvious reason why the progressives are so hostile to bills like the SAVE Act (the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act) which would enforce ID requirements common to most countries in the world.  It's also one of the reasons why NGO funded activists have become so violent in the face of mass deportations of illegals in recent months.  Democrats need to import foreigners, buy them off with subsidies and ensure voting standards remain as loose as possible.  

The only country in which voter ID is labeled "racist" is the US.  Even in the EU, 26 out of 27 member nations have some form of identification law to protect election integrity.  Democrat Senator Chuck Schumer, however, disagrees and claims voter ID is a travesty similar to the days of Jim Crow and segregation.  

Republican midterm chances are riding on the passage of the SAVE Act, not only because of potential fraud by Dems but also because conservatives are increasingly demanding action be taken to secure elections.  A failure on the SAVE Act could mean many MAGA voters stay home on November 3rd. 

Schumer's comparison to "Jim Crow" laws is, of course, absurd, largely because Jim Crow laws had nothing to do with voter identification. 

Furthermore, some Jim Crow laws that dealt with voting were not necessarily wrong:  The requirement for voters to pass a literacy test (in English) would be more than reasonable today.  Many US states also still deny voting rights to convicted criminals guilty of certain felonies, just as they did under Jim Crow. 

If some minority groups are statistically more inclined to commit felonies, then that's their problem and maybe they should stop if they want to vote. 

The GOP has fielded the possibility of a temporary stop on the filibuster, which would allow the passage of the SAVE Act with a simple 51 vote majority rather than 60 votes.  This is a hotly debated "nuclear option", but it might be the only chance to get comprehensive vote ID laws in place.  Many Republican officials and the Trump Adminstration warn that another chance may never come again.  

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 12:20

No Global Recession In 2026, But Period Of Poor Growth Continues

Authored by Daniel Lacalle,

The IMF estimates for 2026 show no signs of recession. However, the global economy remains in a period of poor growth, high debt, persistent inflation and low productivity.

There may not be a recession, but citizens feel poorer as net real wages decline in most economies, remaining below pre-pandemic levels. Why? Because in most developed economies, GDP growth is bloated by government spending, which means high debt, followed by rising taxes that hurt investment and productivity.

The IMF has had to revise its United States estimates to more than double what they expected in early 2025, while Argentina clearly outperforms both the global and regional averages.

Global GDP growth is projected at 3.3% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, slightly above the October 2025 projections and broadly in line with 2025 levels.

US outperforms advanced economies

The positive surprise is the United States. Advanced economies are expected to grow by about 1.8% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027 thanks to higher US figures, while emerging markets and developing economies reach around 4.2% and 4.1%, respectively, despite a slowdown in China.

The IMF calls this “resilient growth” after a year of warning about risks. This is surprising, because many analysts point out that we should be worried when the IMF starts giving bullish messages.

Despite the ironic comments, the IMF does warn about the poor levels of economic development in the leading economies.

The main drivers of economic strength come from AI‑related investment, accommodative financial conditions and private sector flexibility, which offset the negative impact of geopolitical risk and trade negotiations.

The US will be the only G7 economy escaping stagnation in 2025-2027

The Fund was clearly wrong about its estimates for the US economy published last year.

It now projects US growth at 2.4% in 2026, another relevant upward revision from its October 2025 forecast, considering stronger‑than‑expected 2025 data and a powerful impulse from AI‑related capital spending (data centres, chips, digital infrastructure).

For 2027, US growth is expected to moderate to about 2.0%, still above the advanced‑economy average.

The US will be the only G7 economy escaping stagnation in 2025-2027 and outperforming all its major peers with lower immigration, lower taxes and a reduction in government spending, while the major peers, Germany, Japan, France, UK and Canada, continue to disguise the private sector recession with more public spending and rising immigration.

The IMF has not admitted its mistake in assuming stagnation and elevated inflation due to tariffs and prefers to explain the massive upgrades justifying them on lower policy rates, ongoing fiscal support, and high-tech investment.

It is not important. The reality is that the US has proven wrong all the fearmongers and doom predictors and has turned into one of the main drivers of global demand in this forecast round.

Argentina: growth above global and regional averages

The IMF expects Argentina to grow by around 4% in both 2026 and 2027, clearly above the 3.3% world pace and significantly ahead of Latin America’s projected 2.2% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027.

This comes after an estimated 4.5% expansion in 2025, following a 1.3% contraction in 2024. The International Monetary Fund explicitly links this impressive trajectory to the policies of President Milei and recent macro‑stabilisation efforts.

Argentina moves from chronic underperformer to clear outperformer in the IMF’s baseline

Argentina moves from chronic underperformer to clear outperformer in the IMF’s baseline, especially with a weak outlook for Mexico and Brazil.

Supply-side policies, private sector focus and abandoning interventionism in energy are among the factors that put a faster‑growing US and Argentina as the “pockets of strength” that allow global growth to stay around 3.3% despite the euro area and LatAm stagnation.

Low growth in Europe

For the euro area, the IMF shows moderate but gradually improving growth. However, most of it comes from Germany’s increasing debt.

Real GDP is projected to expand by 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027, a slight upward revision versus the October 2025 outlook and consistent with the ECB’s own projections.

However, we cannot forget that this disastrous economic growth comes in the middle of the Next Generation EU stimulus plan and with rate cuts.

Germany is expected to recover from near‑stagnation towards 1.1% in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027 only due to a more than debatable public spending and indebtedness programme.

France is expected to show no real growth by about 1.0% and 1.2%, driven by government spending.

The IMF’s message is that, compared with the United States, the euro area remains a low‑growth region, constrained by weak productivity and excessive regulation and taxes.

For the United Kingdom, the Fund keeps an optimistic forecast at 1.3% growth in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027. It is said that, after the US, the UK and Canada are the fastest‑growing G7 economies.

This reminds us that net zero, high taxes and big government are the recipe for stagnation.

Canada is projected to expand by just 1.4% per year in 2026 and 2027. Japan will only show 0.7% growth in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027, according to the IMF, despite years of government spending on so-called stimulus.

In Asia, the IMF focuses its attention on the Chinese slowdown, offset by the strength in India.

China is projected to grow by 4.5% in 2026 and 4.0% in 2027, slower than its 5% growth in 2025. However, it is still one of the main engines of global expansion, despite the ongoing challenges facing the real estate sector.

India remains the fastest‑growing large economy in the IMF’s outlook, with growth around the 6% range in both 2026 and 2027, driven by domestic demand. India is, according to the IMF, the high beta growth story in Asia.

The IMF should recover economic sanity recommendations and remind governments that supply-side and market-oriented economies focused on strengthening the private sector are the drivers that the global economy requires, and that constant public sector expansion hinders growth and creates financial weakness.

We may not have a recession, but weakness in developed and emerging economies is unjustified, and the main culprit is government interventionism.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 12:00

As ordered reported by the House Committee on Financial Services on December 17, 2025

LGBT Activist Judge Faces Felony Charges For Wrongfully Detaining A Defense Attorney

A Texas LGBT judge with a history of clashing with authorities over her activism has been arrested and charged after she allegedly handcuffed and held a defense attorney captive in her jury box for the crime of arguing for the right to confer with her client during a probation hearing.    

Bexar County Judge Rosie Speedlin Gonzalez was indicted last week on a felony charge of unlawful restraint by a judicial officer and misdemeanor official oppression.  The controversial judge was arrested for the 2024 incident, during which she and defense attorney Elizabeth Russell clashed in the courtroom. 

Gonzalez has had run-ins with the law before.  In 2022 she was was fined for bringing a loaded rainbow-painted gun through San Antonio International airport in her carry-on luggage.  In 2019 shortly after she took the bench as the "first openly gay judge in Bexar County", Gonzalez was sanctioned for pasting her courtroom, office and robes with gay pride flags in violation of the Texas Code of Judicial Conduct.  In 2023 the sanctions were lifted by a three judge panel.

Former staff members of the court report that the LGBT judge created a "hostile work environment".  Multiple former workers/partners with the Reflejo Court program accused Gonzales of increasingly erratic and aggressive behavior, primarily toward defendants/litigants in the courtroom.  Others accused her of being "unstable" and prone to violent outbursts.

The judge is, however, considered a favorite of local prosecutors.

The incident and arrest once again bring into question the mental and emotional stability of woke activists in positions of legal and political authority.  Recent peer-reviewed studies indicate a link between leftist extremism and narcissism/psychopathy. 

Researchers suggest that individuals with dark personalities - such as high narcissistic and psychopathic traits - are attracted to certain forms of political and social activism which they can use as a vehicle to satisfy their own ego-focused needs instead of actually aiming at "social justice and equality."  In other words, they use activism as a shield from scrutiny when engaged in otherwise destructive behaviors. 

Allowing such volatile and biased people into positions of power in the name of "equity" is becoming a detrimental problem in American society.  Clearing activists out of the military and federal government is already having noticeable benefits over the previously unhinged era of the Biden Administration.  Removing them from the legal system and the public school system will be vital for the future.     

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 11:40

 

 

At The Money: The Finances of Divorce with Patrick Kilbane (February 4 , 2026)

Divorce is an expensive, confusing, and stressful experience. Dividing up family assets, including not just the family home, but portfolios, real estate, trusts, and other businesses. There are big mistakes to avoid.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Patrick Kilbane is General Counsel of the RIA Ullman Wealth Partners, where he leads the Divorce Advisory Group. In addition to his years as a divorce attorney, he is also a Certified Divorce Financial Analyst (CFDA) and Wealth Advisor at the firm.

For more info, see:

Professional Bio

LinkedIn

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

APPLE EMBED

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

 

Is there any life event that’s more expensive, confusing, and stressful than a divorce? You’re not only dividing your family, you’re also figuring out the disposition of a lot of assets: portfolios, real estate, trusts, businesses, more. I’m Barry Ritholtz, and on today’s edition of At the Money, we’re gonna discuss the finances of divorce. And full disclosure, I am and remain happily married for 32 years.

To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let’s bring in Patrick Kilbane of the RIA Ullman Wealth Partners. He’s General Counsel for the firm, and also leads the Divorce Advisory Group.

So Patrick, let’s start with the basics. You focus on people. Going through divorce, what’s the first financial triage you do when a new client calls?

Patrick Kilbane: Barry, great to be with you. Thank you for having me. When somebody gets hit with this bomb, when this bomb is dropped on them, you know, I, I’m a, I’m a big fan of Coach Lou Holtz and he has an acronym WIN, and it stands for what’s important now.

So I generally talk to the person who this might be their first exposure with the legal system. And I figure out what their goal is – has their estranged spouse cut them off from the cash flow from the assets? Is this a child custody situation? You know, what is the first thing that we need to handle?

And then it’s sort of giving them the confidence and the reassurance that, hey, you’re not the first or the last who’s gonna go through this, and I’m gonna be your Sherpa through this process.

Barry Ritholtz: I imagine there are some consistent large money mistakes people make in the first 30 to 60 days of a separation. Obviously it’s very emotional and you know, most people don’t go through these sort of things repeatedly. What sort of mistakes do you see before the lawyers and the written agreements start showing up?

Patrick Kilbane: Like most people who have a long history together, they. Have solved a lot of problems together; I see people trying to work the divorce settlement out among themselves. The spouse that may not have all of the data, all of the information, may not know the extent of their holdings, may make some agreements before they have any idea. What their rights are.

Like you, Barry, I’m a lawyer, although I’m not practicing anymore. I litigated high-net-worth divorce cases for 10 years. And what I try to do is not give legal advice, but say, Hey, let’s slow down a little bit and let’s make sure that you have a full understanding of what you agreeing to or waiving before you do it.

Barry Ritholtz: I think about all the assets that are involved in a family dissolution. There’s cash, there’s retirement accounts, there’s property, there’s business interests. How do you help clients understand the value of what they’re negotiating, either cash upfront versus a longer-term set of assets?

Patrick Kilbane: I try to divide everything into different buckets, so I make sure that my clients aren’t comparing apples to giraffes. They’ve gotta be comparing apples to apples.

Depending on where the spouses are situated and where each one of them wants to go, we know that all assets aren’t created equal. So there may be an opportunity to work together. To reach a divorce settlement that’ll be more advantageous for both spouses than what they would end up with in court, if the court just took a meat cleaver and busted everything in half.

Barry Ritholtz: You have a background as a matrimonial lawyer. How does that change the way you sit down as a financial advisor when you’re having these conversations with clients who are just starting the divorce process?

Patrick Kilbane: I have a perspective from litigating these cases for 10 years and seeing people at the very beginning of the process, and I think a financial planner, a wealth manager, an asset manager who may not have that same experience, may want to get right into the details.

You mentioned the word triage earlier in this conversation. This client, this family is coming to you, they are experiencing trauma. The wound may be fresh, so I think we really have to slow down. And it’s sort of like, you know it, when you see it, you’re ready to delve into the financial planning and start talking about Barry 2.0 when Barry is ready to start thinking about Barry 2.0.

But a lot of these people come in and they’re at a total fog. They’re trying to figure out. Where their next dollar is gonna come from? How is cashflow gonna go? Where am I gonna live? So we have to sort of satisfy that basic level of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs before we can even get into that financial planning conversation.

Barry Ritholtz: The past few divorces I’ve witnessed from relatively close, the big question becomes who gets the house? It always seems to be one of those things – it’s an emotional decision, it’s a financial decision. Is there a better framework for addressing that? How do you avoid that from becoming so toxic, so War of the Roses sort of a disaster?

Patrick Kilbane: I think you have to really start and understand why somebody wants the house. You made a great point. Is this an emotional decision? Is this a financial decision? Do I have comfort in my neighbors? Is the house in a public school district where I want my children or child to continue to go to school until they reach the age of 18?

And then once you really have a good idea why that’s the case, maybe that spouse wants the house just because they know the other spouse wants the house. We have to take a step back and understand the true motivations. And then we start talking about the financial problems and the tax problems that come.

A married couple, if this has been your primary residence for two of the last five years, you can exclude up to half a million dollars of a capital gain if there is one. Of course. If you’re single, then you can only exclude up to $250,000 of the gain. What’s the basis? Do we have a state tax situation? There are a lot of different layers,

Back to my previous comment, I don’t think we can even hit on that until we have a true understanding of what the client’s motivation is and when they’re emotionally prepared to have that financial discussion.

Barry Ritholtz: You mentioned taxes, it’s easy to imagine how taxes can just flip the math.

What are the big tax traps in divorce settlements to avoid?

Patrick Kilbane: All of these assets are different. They may be tax at ordinary income rates, capital gains rates. Your audience is sophisticated, but some of our clients who are going through this process are also very sophisticated, but that hasn’t been their role in the household.

A lot of it is re-educating them and understanding or trying to have an idea what is their tax situation going to be post filing, they may be in a totally different tax filing status. They may be going back to work. They may not be going to work. They may have investment income imputed to them. They may have to use IRS, uh, rule 72T if they’re before 59 and a half to be able to tap into retirement accounts, um, because of imputed investment income.

Of course, those laws vary by state, but that’s why it’s so helpful to have somebody who really knows that perspective and can work with the various tax and estate planning professionals to be thinking about these issues.

Barry Ritholtz: What about retirement assets? What do people need to know about avoiding penalties or getting a bad allocation? There’s a whole other QDRO thing that I’m wholly unfamiliar with. What are the issues in divorce with? 401Ks, 403Bs. IRAs. Any joint or individual retirement asset?

Patrick Kilbane: Quadro is an acronym that’s, uh, stands for qualified domestic Relations order. It is a subsequent court order that it, that is used to segregate a retirement plan that’s subject to ERISA (Employee Retirement Income Security Act). But if your spouse is a participant in a government plan, a government plan may not accept a QDRO, then how in the heck do we divide that marital asset?

It always requires us to stay, take a step back and get a hold of a document called a summary plan description. Which sets out the rules and regulations of each retirement account.

We’ve heard people say all the time, the only way to eat an elephant is one bite at a time, and whether it’s a retirement account or some other asset, we have to be very intentional and very careful and go with each asset.

What is it? Is it a qualified or a non-qualified account? How do we divide it? What are the tax consequences? There are other contingent assets, like carry and restricted stock and so on. But what’s the best way to actually accomplish this on each asset?

Maybe with that asset, with that asset, we say, wait a minute, I don’t want to have to deal with my estranged spouse in the future to get my fair share. Isn’t there a way that I can barter this away and get something else that works better for me? So those are all the discussions that are asset by asset level.

Barry Ritholtz: That’s complicated. Let’s talk about something even more complicated. What do you do with illiquid assets, private businesses? Hey, it’s easy to split a portfolio of publicly traded stock. What do you do about a company that is private and one of the spouses is running, and how do you you know, figure out what it’s worth and who gets what?

Patrick Kilbane: You and I can look at our brokerage account statement or retirement account statement. Have a pretty good idea what that asset is worth with an asset that we know that has value, but we’re not sure what that value is. You are required to hire another professional called a business appraiser or a valuation expert.

And the crazy thing about the divorce world, Barry, is it imposes these. Fantasy rules and regulations that you and I would never, you know, have to discuss with a married couple. We talk about enterprise, goodwill and personal goodwill when we come to the value of a business.

A valuation expert can say, okay, this firm is worth X, you know, million dollars. But in a divorce context, especially my home state of Florida, we have to look at what’s the value of Barry’s firm, without Barry? And the value of Barry’s firm, without Barry, that’s the marital asset in Florida, that’s what we have to divide.

So a year prior, somebody may have offered to buy the family business for $15 million, but if you take Barry outta that family business and the value of the office buildings and the furniture and so on and so forth is a million, then the marital share is 500 grand. And you have a spouse thinking, wait a minute, I’m gonna end up with seven and a half million dollars of this asset. But really it may be half a million dollars or you know, and you can pick any other example.

So you need that expert. And then you need to understand how the state dissolution of marriage laws apply to valuing that asset within the context of a divorce.

Barry Ritholtz: What do you tell clients about cash flow planning right after the divorce? Suddenly, whatever emergency funds, credit, even just a household budget, all that stuff gets thrown out of the window. How, how do you rebuild that? How do you face that first year of spending reality?

Patrick Kilbane: In the context of the divorce negotiations, I try to help my clients and lawyers think about asking for a larger-than-normal emergency savings fund.

We talk about “this is how much money you have to spend on a monthly basis,” But that first year where this now single person is in charge of their monthly budget, there may be some surprises, and there may be a learning curve, and so on and so forth. I aim to build that experience and, even if it’s not an alimony case, help settle the case if alimony is possible for a short period to help with that transition and ease somebody into being responsible for probably the first time in a long time for managing their own cash flow.

Barry Ritholtz: Final question. If you could give one piece of advice to someone starting the divorce process, what’s the best decision or even document that improves the outcome for everybody?

Patrick Kilbane: In my state, there is a document that’s required to be filed by each party in every case, and it’s called a financial affidavit. I see in New York, it’s called a net worth statement or so on and so forth.

It is a daunting, overwhelming document, but really it’s a forum that. You’re normally required to, you know, sign, you take an oath and say that what you put on here is truthful, but you outline all of your sources of income, all of your expenses, all of your assets, and all of your liabilities.

From a financial standpoint, if you can take the time and make that as accurate as possible, um, that’s gonna really go a long way to helping you, your lawyer, and the other financial professionals on your team to get a really precise idea of what we’re dealing with.

Spend that time, take the time upfront, and you may not have all the information that you need to answer that question until you get the discovery from the other side. And what I tell people all the time is, that’s okay. Disclose it, and then put a footnote that says, “Hey, I don’t have this information. And when I get it. I’ll update it” and then when you really break it down like that and let people know, Hey, you can amend this document, I see them start to relax a little bit and say, okay, I got this.

Barry Ritholtz: To wrap up, I’m gonna quote Patrick, “Divorce is really a financial or tax problem disguised in a divorce costume.” And that really sums it up. It’s as much about. Separating your personal lives as it is to figuring out your financial and asset lives going forward. Take it seriously. Make sure you get good counsel and follow the process that your lawyer and financial advisor walk you through.

I’m Barry Ritholtz. This has been Bloomberg’s at the Money.

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At The Money: The Finances of Divorce appeared first on The Big Picture.

'Nearly Indestructible' Fuel: Nano Nuclear CEO Talks 'Laser Enrichment' On Shawn Ryan Show

2025 was a watershed moment for the US nuclear industry: enthusiasm for a global nuclear renaissance gripped the investment community as the valuations for publicly traded companies were pushed into the stratosphere. Tickers associated with nuclear reactors were pushed up several hundred percentage points, with Nano Nuclear one of the best performers of the year.

Nano Nuclear's chairman and founder, Jay Yu, sat down recently on the Shawn Ryan Show and discussed his company's mission and technology.

The Vigilance Elite Production of SRS EP. 275 with Jay Yu is live on the Shawn Ryan Show YouTube channel! https://t.co/otnVoaUQNM pic.twitter.com/9y8TAIzfpM

— Shawn Ryan Show (@ShawnRyanShow) January 29, 2026

The nuclear portion of the discussion focused around the global demand for new sustainable energy and how companies like Nano are answering that call.

With energy widely understood to be the true bottleneck of AI adoption and economic affordability, companies are developing new innovative ways to rapidly deploy gigawatts of nuclear-powered energy generation capacity.

Nano recently broke ground at the University of Illinois for the construction of their flagship reactor design, the Kronos reactor.

Kronos is a high-temperature, gas-cooled reactor using TRISO as fuel and helium as a coolant.

Tri-structural Isotropic (TRISO) fuel was described by Yu as nearly indestructible and lined with tank armor, which is an accurate description given its multiple layers of pyrolytic carbon and silicon carbide. 

One of the highlights of gas reactors is their ability to be "walk-away safe".

This means their design utilizes passive cooling features in the event of an extended loss of power due to natural disaster or massive electrical system failures – the plant prevents a meltdown or explosion like Fukushima and Chernobyl all on its own.

Yu went on to highlight the modularity of smaller reactor designs. This means the majority of the parts are fabricated in a factory and then shipped to the site and connected like Lego bricks at the location to dramatically reduce construction times.

Additional features such as a lack of required water cooling enable the possibility of data centers being built out in desert locations in the U.S. and the Middle East.

The potential of building several reactors to power one data center, vice one large reactor, enables the take down of single or multiple units at a time for refueling/maintenance without losing power to the load is a massive advantage.

Much more in the full clip: watch it here.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 11:00

The Majority Leader of the House of Representatives announces bills that will be considered under suspension of the rules in that chamber. CBO estimates the effects of those bills on direct spending and revenues.

WTI Holds Losses As Freezing Temps Sparked Massive Drop In US Production

Crude oil prices (WTI) are trending moderately lower this morning as traders weigh geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a report of sharply lower US stockpiles reported by API overnight.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US envoy Steve Witkoff will hold indirect negotiations in Oman on Friday, Iran’s semi-official Tasnim reported, adding talks would be “limited to the nuclear issue and the lifting of sanctions.”

“Geopolitical tensions are really driving it,” Equinor Chief Financial Officer Torgrim Reitan said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

“The underlying balance is a lower price than there is today, but with everything going on it’s very hard to say where this will end.”

We can't help but feel like the API reporting (and very mixed picture) was related to the impact of the freezing weather across most of the country.

API

• Crude -11.1mm (+700k exp)

• Cushing

• Gasoline +4.7mm

• Distillates -4.81mm

DOE

• Crude -3.45mm (+700k exp)

• Cushing -743k

• Gasoline +685k

• Distillates -5.55mm - biggest draw since Feb 2021

The official data showed a sizable crude draw (but considerably less than API reported) as distillates saw their biggest drawdown since Feb 2021. Bloomberg's Will Zubanskuy notes that the largest portion of that distillates draw came from PADD 1, which includes the East Coast -- where homes in the Northeast lean on heating oil to warm their houses in frigid temperatures. Adding to the demand, diesel and oil-fired power plants start running when the grid comes under strain and some utilities begin pulling from heating oil for certain customers instead of natural gas when supply of the latter gets tight.

Stockpiles at Cushing, Oklahoma, declined for the second straight week, bringing inventories at the storage hub to around 24 million barrels. Despite the draw, levels at Cushing remain several million barrels above where they were this time last year. Gasoline stocks rose for the 12th straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Crude production in the Lower 48 fell to the lowest since November 2024 as freezing temperatures disrupted drilling in the Permian and Bakken formations.

In the past two months, output is down by 632,000 barrels a day. Overall, production has been shaved off by 4.4 million barrels since early December. 

Source: Bloomberg

Bloomberg's Alex Longley also noted another data point showing how much of this storm impact was centered on the gas side of the market rather than oil. While crude production was down 481k b/d versus a week earlier, NGL output tumbled 1.25m b/d. It’s the lowest since 2024 and the biggest weekly decline on record.

WTI prices edged lower, likely driven by the smaller draw than API reported...

Circling back to where we started, the bullish drop in inventories comes as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to run hot. While the U..S. Administration said negotiations over Iran's nuclear program will start this week, U.S. naval forces sent to the Arabian Sea off Iran shot down an Iranian drone approaching an aircraft carrier 500 miles off Iran's coast in the Arabian Sea, the BBC reported. As well, a U.S.-flagged merchant ship in the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for more than 20-million barrels per day of Persian Gulf exports, was harassed by Iranian gun boats.

"Oil would be lower without Middle Eastern sabre-rattling. Post-settlement API figures, faithfully echoing the impact of the cold spell in the US, provide additional support this morning, as crude oil stocks dropped 11 million bbls. These are extraordinary days, weeks and months, in which perceived oversupply has been overwhelmingly overlooked, yet it is still able to set a price ceiling when perceived supply disruptions are in the crosshairs of investors," PVM Oil Associates noted.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 10:50

Speculation US May Announce New Nuclear Plant During Korea Trade Negotiations

At a time when China, which is now leaps and bounds ahead of the US in energy generation, is building 29 nuclear power plants compared to zero for the US...

Since the last update, Russia has added one additional nuclear reactor under construction (up to 5).

China is still at 29; the US is still at 0 https://t.co/u9SnLCeFkI pic.twitter.com/2lUIFnXtOL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 2, 2025

...  South Korean news agencies report that the US government is proposing South Korea build a nuclear power plant in the US as part of ongoing trade negotiations. South Korea’s Industry Minister is in the U.S. this week and is scheduled to meet with Secretary Lutnik to clarify Seoul's position on a delayed Korea-U.S. trade deal.

Providing some added credibility to the report out of South Korea, Reuters reports the industry minister is scheduled to meet Secretary Wright as well before he departs February 5th. 

South Korea and the US are already coordinating on multiple different ventures as previously announced last year through multiple different MOUs. Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co. (KHNP) is working with multiple reactor developers to further develop and progress the construction of their designs. KHNP is also working with Centrus Energy to rapidly expand enrichment capacity.

Korean industrial company Doosan Enerbility is also working with Fermi America to construct a supply chain for the four AP1000 reactors to be built at the AI mega-campus in Texas.

While the reactor that will be potentially constructed by Korea has yet to be confirmed or announced by either country, it will likely be an AP1000 to strengthen a high-demand grid and stand as a signal that the U.S. government is pursuing lower energy prices for consumers. The reactor design is licensed for use by reactor owners from Westinghouse, which is owned by Canadian companies Cameco and Brookfield. 

Cameco (CCJ) happens to be Goldman Sachs' highest conviction play for the nuclear theme as all of this goes on. Goldman also recently noted “the biggest near-term potential uplift to EBITDA forecasts as through FIDs on new AP1000s, as each reactor provides ~$225mn of EBITDA generation over a ~12-year time frame.”

The first two, and only two, AP1000 designs built in the U.S. were constructed in Georgia with both horrific cost overruns and grossly overblown timelines. The nuclear industry is desperate for the opportunity to prove it has learned its lessons and can come down the cost curve. Utilizing the most proficient nuclear power plant construction teams, outside of China, is a best case scenario. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 10:25

Tom Homan Announces 700-Agent Drawdown As Minnesota Counties Begin Cooperating With ICE

Border czar Tom Homan revealed moments ago at a press conference in Minneapolis that an unprecedented number of counties are now coordinating with federal authorities and allowing ICE to take custody of illegal aliens before they reach the streets. As a result, Homan noted, fewer federal agents are needed in the metro area.

"We currently have an unprecedented number of [Minnesota] counties communicating with us now and allowing ICE to take custody of illegal aliens before they hit the streets," Homan said.

MASSIVE: Border Czar Tom Homan: “We currently have an unprecedented number of [Minnesota] counties communicating with us now and allowing ICE to take custody of illegal aliens before they hit the streets.” pic.twitter.com/AGGASjS0gd

— RedWave Press (@RedWave_Press) February 4, 2026

Homan continued, "I have announced that, effective immediately, we will draw down 700 people effective today. 700 law enforcement personnel."

Tom Homan: "I have announced effective immediately, we will draw down 700 people effective today. 700 law enforcement personnel." pic.twitter.com/Vbylc3iIBd

— CSPAN (@cspan) February 4, 2026

At the end of last week, Homan said federal immigration officials had made "a lot of progress" with local officials in Minnesota, signaling a possible shift in enforcement tactics amid rising tensions following recent deadly shootings involving federal immigration agents.

Homan's second news conference in Minneapolis comes after he replaced Gregory Bovino as the lead of ICE operations.

He recently warned that "justice is coming" for the far-left groups funding the attacks on ICE on the ground.

Much of the chaos in Minneapolis stems from the sanctuary state not honoring ICE detainers. This forced the Trump administration to surge federal agents into the Democratic-run town to retrieve illegals. Then, far-left militant groups and nonprofits unleashed a well-coordinated pressure campaign ("Signal-Gate"), which only suggests to us that the Democrats' plan all along was in hopes of spreading revolution nationwide ahead of spring.

Well played by Homan and the Trump administration in pushing for a major de-escalation now that local counties are coordinating with federal authorities on ICE detainers.

But why were ICE detainers not being honored in the first place? It's time to rethink the sanctuary status of left-wing-controlled cities.

Tyler Durden Wed, 02/04/2026 - 10:15