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Turkish Jets Engaged In Electronic Jamming Operations Against Israel Over Syria

Zero Hedge -

Turkish Jets Engaged In Electronic Jamming Operations Against Israel Over Syria

Both Israel and Turkey have long been the major regional players with a "hidden hand" in Syria - with both at times covertly leading the drive to weaken and overthrow the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad.

And now the scramble for the spoils have been on since Assad's exiting the country to Moscow on December 8. Israeli tanks and ground units have moved up toward Damascus from the South, and Turkey's "Syrian National Army" proxy fighters have been active in Aleppo province and in northern Syria.

Turkey has also reportedly been involved with the new Syrian government under al-Qaeda linked Jolani (Sharaa), establishing anti-air defense infrastructure at Syrian bases, particularly near Palmyra in the center of the country.

Illustrative, via EPA

But Israel has since December been busy bombing Syrian military sites and equipment out of existence. Syria once had to most advanced (Russian-supplied) air defense missile systems in the whole region, but now these batteries have been destroyed.

Further, there's no longer a Syrian Arab Army (SAA) to man or operate sophisticated systems. This means Israel's air force has had free reign over Syria's skies. But Tel Aviv increasingly has a rival in Syria: Turkey's military.

With sectarian fighting this week resulting in dozens of deaths among Syria's Druze community, Israel has been sending 'warning' strikes, including near the presidential palace in Damascus.

Regional reports say Turkey is at the same time quietly engaging in anti-Israel operations:

Turkish fighter jets reportedly issued electronic warning signals and engaged in jamming operations late on Friday in an effort to deter Israeli aircraft operating in Syrian airspace, amid a new wave of airstrikes across the country.

The rare move came as Israeli warplanes launched attacks on multiple sites, including in the Hama and Damascus regions, drawing renewed scrutiny over ongoing violations of Syrian sovereignty.

"Turkish fighter jets issued warning signals and jammed Israeli aircraft during Tel Aviv's latest deadly bombing campaign in Syria," The New Arab writes.

The Netanyahu government has already been strongly warning Turkey against getting more deeply involved in Syria, but clearly Jolani and his HTS rulers have found their biggest backer in Erdogan.

There does seem to be confirmation coming from Israeli sources on the Turkish jamming story:

The Israeli Broadcasting Authority confirmed the Turkish interference, reporting that "Turkish aircraft are sending warning signals and jamming Israeli fighter jets to make them leave Syrian airspace."

Turkish officials have voiced increasing frustration at Israel's expanding operations in Syria, which Ankara regards as a threat to its interests and to regional stability.

Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned against Israeli strikes late this week. "In this context, Israel must put an end to its airstrikes, which harm efforts toward Syria’s unity and territorial integrity," a statement said.

As for Israel's support to the Druze religious minority, many Syrians see this as but a pretext for Israeli invasion and occupation of the south - where most Druze happen to be. The ruling HTS is made up of hardline Sunnis, who consider Druze to be 'apostates' and 'heretics' - given their outlier and esoteric beliefs. 

Turkey, on the other side, has long supported Sunni interests in Syria. Erdogan has long been accused of 'neo-Ottoman' policies, also as Turkey wages war against the Kurds of northern Syria.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 20:25

Squatter Syndrome: How The Inefficiencies Of Our Legal System Are Making A Mockery Of Our Immigration Laws

Zero Hedge -

Squatter Syndrome: How The Inefficiencies Of Our Legal System Are Making A Mockery Of Our Immigration Laws

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

It was once said that possession is nine-tenths of the law, an acknowledgement that the possessor of property generally has the advantage in keeping it. This principle has been taken to absurd extremes in some squatter cases, where people invade homes and then demand the right to stay pending long legal challenges. Today, under both our housing and immigration laws, mere occupation often appears to be nine-tenths of our laws.

Obviously, unlawful immigrants are not the same as squatters. Some of these migrants have legitimate asylum and other claims. We have to separate those meritorious cases from the vast majority with no cognizable claims. Yet, our legal system is failing the public by allowing unlawful immigrants with no meritorious claims to game the system for years and then simply vanish into the nation.

In courtrooms across the country, the nation seems trapped in a type of Squatter Syndrome, a macro version of the housing cases. The slowness of the removal process is being used to keep millions in the country indefinitely. It may prove to be President Joe Biden’s most lasting legacy, a de facto residency by simply overwhelming the system by the sheer number of unlawful entries.

For years, residents in some major cities have expressed frustration as officials threw up their hands after their homes were occupied by squatters. Even though the owners could show officers that the squatters are home invaders (including their own family pictures on the walls), they are often told to seek other housing to let the courts sort it out. That can take months or even years and the squatters play out the litigation (often with the help of some public interest groups) – only to move on to another home when they run out of appeals.

There is a sense of the same helplessness in dealing with unlawful immigration. After over eight million unlawful immigrants entered the country under Biden, Democrats are again shrugging and saying that these immigrants must be allowed to remain for years as they raise asylum and other claims that are overwhelmingly rejected.

Most unlawful immigrants immediately seek out border agents after being led across the border by coyotes and gang members. They know that, upon arrest, they would be given “notices to appear” that are years in the future and then released.

They often come across the border with printed instructions on claiming asylum.

It may be the greatest political scam ever pulled on the American people. The polls show that an overwhelming percentage of the public favors the deportation of aliens with criminal records and roughly half support mass deportations of those here unlawfully. According to a new Associated Press-NORC poll, roughly half of the country still approves of Trump’s handling of immigration.

Knowing that the public opposes such unlawful entries, politicians mouth their concerns about open borders while doing nothing to seek any change that might meaningfully increase removals.

For years, the Biden Administration claimed that it could not close the Southern border without immigration reform, including the new pathways to citizenship. Donald Trump then effectively shut down the border in a matter of weeks with the same authority that Biden had for four years. Entries are down a breathtaking 97 percent under Trump.

The record conclusively shows that Biden and the Democrats could have closed the border at any time but chose to keep it open despite daily images of waves of migrants entering the country. These same politicians knew that, once in the country, it would be practically impossible to remove a significant number of these individuals due to a court system that takes years actually to deport an individual. They become de facto resident aliens and Democrats then insist that the length of their time in the country warrants a pathway to citizenship.

After he came into office, Biden fueled this migration by negating the immigration orders of the Trump Administration, including stopping the successful Remain in Mexico policy. (It was later reinstated after legal challenges.) The Administration also resisted every major effort of border states to fill the vacuum left by lax federal enforcement, even cutting state-constructed barriers along the border.

The result was a deluge of unlawful crossings. Some border agents complained that they felt like little more than travel agents asking immigrants where they would like to go on public expense.

Trump was elected to increase deportations and he has sought to use every possible means to do so. He has met opposition at every turn from the Democrats and the courts. I have criticized the Administration in some of these cases. However, Trump is right that we need to create faster and final avenues for removal for the millions who entered during the Biden Administration.

The Congress has sought to expedite removals without such prolonged litigation.

After his inauguration, President Trump issued an executive order titled “Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements” that ordered the increased use of “expedited removals” under a 1996 law. Prior administrations extended this law to include any apprehended person within 100 miles of the land border who cannot prove they were legally admitted to the country or have been present in the country continuously for more than 14 days.

The Trump Administration has expanded that law to anyone who cannot prove continuous presence for two years. Their removals are generally unreviewable by an immigration judge and dramatically limit judicial relief under asylum claims. These removals also come with a five-year ban on reentry or even a lifetime ban if the individual made false claims to immigration officers.

This same expedited process can be used for those who entered the country legally but overstayed their visa or who have been convicted of certain crimes.

Some 44 percent of removals were accomplished under expedited removal designations by circumventing the standard immigration hearing process. President Obama, who was called by critics “the Deporter in Chief,” expanded the use of this process.

The Trump Administration is also using the administrative removal process of anyone who is not a permanent resident who has been convicted of aggravated felonies. Such offenses actually go beyond such felonies as murder, sexual assault, and firearms offenses. They can include nonviolent misdemeanors as failure to appear in court, burglary, and document fraud.

The benefit of this process is that it does not matter how long the individual has been in the country. Only permanent residents under this system have the right to go before an immigration judge. However, there are still appeals allowed under the system. That is why more immigration judges are needed.

The Administration is also using a process called reinstatement of removal, which applies to anyone who has illegally reentered the United States. Many of these repeat offenders immediately claim asylum. While they are not entitled to an immigration hearing, they can appeal the reinstatement.

The public deserves a better system that can handle a crisis of millions of unlawful immigrants to avoid more expedited reviews and removals.

Otherwise, we become a type of squatter nation where our inefficient legal system is being used to make a mockery of our laws.

*  *  *

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro professor of public interest law at George Washington University and the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 19:50

Zelensky's Truce Refusal Poses Direct Threat To Visiting Leaders For Victory Day: Kremlin

Zero Hedge -

Zelensky's Truce Refusal Poses Direct Threat To Visiting Leaders For Victory Day: Kremlin

Ukraine's President Zelensky has dismissed the Kremlin's unilateral declaration of a three-day ceasefire for Russia's World War II commemorations on May 9 as but a "game" and "theatrical performance".

"This is more of a theatrical performance on his part. Because in two or three days, it is impossible to develop a plan for the next steps to end the war," Zelensky said, offering instead a fuller 30-day ceasefire. 

We reported earlier that Zelensky days ago went so far as to hint that a Ukrainian attack on Victory Day events could happen. Here's what Zelensky warned several days ago:

"Now they are worried that their parade is in question, and they are rightly worried. But they should be concerned that this war is still going on. They must end the war," the Ukrainian president said.

Moscow officials certainly took this as a direct threat. Various world leaders, including President Xi Jinping of China, will be present for the V-Day parade through Red Square and other observances. This year's will be particularly special given it's the 80th anniversary since the end of WW2.

Prior Victory Day event. President Putin attends every year, via Reuters

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova issued a statement Saturday saying that Zelensky "unambiguously threatened world leaders."

"After every terrorist attack on Russia's territory, the Kiev regime, its security services, and Zelensky personally boast that this is their doing, that this will continue. Therefore, the phrase that he 'does not guarantee security on May 9 in Russia' as it is not his area of responsibility is, of course, a direct threat," the diplomat stated.

She and Peskov further blasted Zelensky's stance as having exposed "the neo-Nazi nature of the Kiev regime, which has become a terrorist cell," according to TASS.

Lately there's been assassination bombings targeting top Russian generals, as well as long-range drone attacks which have reached the outskirts of Moscow. Clearly, Ukrainian intelligence and/or its allied Western intel services have made inroads into Russia.

Without doubt, Russian defense and security services will bulk up anti-air systems in an around Moscow for Victory Day events.

Defense officials, heads of state, and foreign ministers from various countries and especially Russia-friendly nations are expected to be present.

Earlier in the Ukraine war, drones were sent across the Russian border and made it all the way to the Moscow Kremlin complex, lightly damaging the top of a dome, in what was a major first at the time. Since then, Moscow area airports have more frequently halted operations during inbound drone attacks.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 19:15

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Decreased 1.0% Year-over-year

Calculated Risk -

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 26 April
The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 26 April. ...

20-26 April 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

Occupancy: 65.1% (-1.0%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$161.98 (+4.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$105.40 (+3.2%)
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.
Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed purple is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 
The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking below both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).
Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
The 4-week average will mostly move sideways until the summer travel season.  We will likely see a hit to occupancy during the summer months due to less international tourism.

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): Can It Really Think Like A Human?

Zero Hedge -

Artificial General Intelligence (AGI): Can It Really Think Like A Human?

Authored by Jules Winnfield via CoinTelegraph.com,

What is AGI?

When the lines blur between man and machine, you’re looking at artificial general intelligence (AGI). Unlike its counterpart, artificial narrow intelligence (ANI), which is the use of AI for solving individual problem statements, AGI represents artificial intelligence that can understand, learn and apply knowledge in a way that is indistinguishable from human cognition.

AGI is still theoretical, but the prospect of artificial intelligence being able to holistically replace human input and judgment has naturally attracted plenty of interest, with researchers, technologists and academics alike seeking to bring the concept of AGI to reality. 

Yet another strand of prevailing research seeks to explore the feasibility and implications of AGI vs. ANI in a world increasingly shaped by AI capabilities. 

Indeed, while ANI has already transformed various industries, AGI’s potential goes far beyond. Imagine a world where machines can not only assist humans in their tasks but also proactively understand the drivers behind specific tasks, predict outcomes, and autonomously create innovative solutions to achieve optimal results. This paradigm shift could revolutionize healthcare, education, transportation and countless other fields.

Why is AGI so powerful?

Unlike ANI, AGI is not confined to pre-programmed tasks or predefined responses within a limited domain. Instead, it has the potential to generate and apply knowledge across various contexts.

Imagine a self-driving car powered by AGI. It can collect a passenger from a train station but also personalize the journey with custom recommendations for pit stops, sightseeing avenues or navigating unfamiliar roads to arrive at the desired destination. And because it’s a machine, AGI would not experience fatigue and would continue learning and improving at exponential speeds. 

Here’s a definition of AGI by Vitalik Buterin, who highlights the sheer potential of AGI:

The example highlights some interesting features of AGI, which include:

  • Learning capability: AGI can learn from experiences and improve its performance over time without a concerted effort by human programmers to perform additional data set training. This learning is not limited to specific tasks and instead encompasses a broad spectrum of activities.

  • Problem-solving skills: AGI can solve complex problems by applying logical reasoning just as a human would. This includes consideration of non-traditional variables, such as emotional impact, which can highlight an even wider range of potential outcomes.

  • Adaptability: AGI can adjust to new situations and environments without explicit programming, which means it can thrive in dynamic and unpredictable settings.

  • Understanding and interpretation: AGI is equipped to comprehend natural language, abstract concepts and emotional nuance, allowing for sophisticated human-machine interactions.

Did you know? Blockchain timestamps could serve as a legal memory for AGI systems, allowing future audits to determine exactly what an AGI knew — and when.

The pursuit of AGI: Where does it stand as of April 2025?

AGI is currently the science-fiction version of AI. However, while still theoretical, the sheer potential of the concept makes AGI the science fiction equivalent of artificial intelligence. 

While existing models, such as ChatGPT, are constantly evolving and improving with each day, the journey to bringing AGI to life involves overcoming significant technical challenges, such as:

  • Defining the tech stack: The purely hypothetical nature of AGI makes it exceedingly difficult, if not altogether impossible, to determine the precise nature of the technological stack required for practical implementation.

  • Neural networks: Advances in deep learning have propelled this field forward, but AGI would also require specialist neural networks that mimic the human brain’s structure to process information and introduce a layer of emotion and nuance.

  • Natural language processing (NLP): Significant advances are required in the field of NLP to enable machines to better understand and generate human language, incorporating nuance, emotion and complexities. This includes a more complex analysis of language syntax, semantics and context, which is still evolving in traditional machine learning models that leverage NLP. 

  • Reinforcement learning: Using reward-based mechanisms to teach machines to make decisions would allow AGI to learn optimal behaviors through trial and error.

Despite advancements, creating AGI that can truly think like a human remains an elusive goal.

Did you know? DeepMind warns that not all AI risks come from the machines themselves — some start with humans misusing them. In its paper titled ‘An Approach to Technical AGI Safety and Security’, DeepMind identifies four key threats: misuse (bad actors using AI for harm), misalignment (AI knowingly going against its developer’s intent), mistakes (AI causes harm without realizing it), and structural risks (failures that emerge from complex interactions between people, organizations, or systems).

Can AGI think like a human?

The question of whether AGI can think like a human delves into the very core of human cognition. Human thinking is characterized by consciousness, emotional depth, creativity and subjectivity. While AGI can simulate certain aspects of human thought, replicating the full spectrum of human cognition is a formidable challenge.

Several dimensions of human cognition are particularly difficult to emulate:

  • Consciousness and self-awareness: One of the defining traits of human thinking is consciousness, the awareness of oneself and one’s surroundings. AGI, as sophisticated as it may become, lacks the intrinsic human ability to introspect. AGI operates on an underlying set of algorithms and complex, learned patterns, without any subjectivity or genuine emotion.

  • Emotional intelligence: Humans experience a wide range of emotions that influence their decisions, behaviors and interactions. While AGI can be trained to recognize and respond to such emotions, the lack of genuine emotional experience means that it cannot wholly replicate these emotions. Emotional intelligence in humans involves empathy, compassion and moral considerations, elements that are challenging to encode into machines.

  • Creativity and innovation: Creativity involves generating novel ideas and solutions, often through intuitive leaps and imaginative thinking. AGI can mimic creativity by combining existing knowledge in new ways, but it lacks the intrinsic motivation and subjective insight that drive human innovation. True creativity stems from emotional experiences, personal reflections and cultural contexts, which AGI cannot authentically replicate.

Key benefits of AGI

The litmus test for AGI lies in its ability to holistically replicate a human experience. When realized, the potential benefits are enormous and stretch across various industries, spawning various aspects of daily life.

Despite its limitations, AGI is increasingly viewed as a force for good across a range of industries, including:

  • Healthcare: AGI can assist in diagnosing diseases, developing personalized treatment plans and predicting customized health outcomes, leveraging a vast body of underlying training data.

  • Education: It can provide customized learning experiences, tutoring and academic research support. AGI can adapt to individual learning styles and pace, enhancing educational outcomes.

  • Economics: It can optimize financial models, predict market trends, and enhance productivity. It can analyze economic data to forecast market trends and guide investment decisions.

  • Environmental Science: AGI can analyze climate data, model ecological impacts, and propose sustainable solutions.

Additionally, AGI’s potential extends to areas such as transportation, communication and entertainment, offering new frontiers for innovation.

Did you know? Some futurists believe AGI systems could eventually negotiate with each other autonomously using blockchain-based smart contracts — forming agreements, trading data or even co-developing solutions without human intervention.

Ethical and societal considerations

The rise of AGI raises significant ethical and societal questions. 

While powerful, AGI requires careful consideration for safe usage, which has prompted the creation of nonprofit societies, such as the AGI Society, as shown in the image below.

Fundamentally, it is crucial to address concerns such as:

  • Safety: Ensuring AGI operates within safe and controlled parameters to prevent unintended consequences. This includes robust testing and the introduction of regulatory frameworks to oversee AGI deployment.

  • Privacy: Protecting personal data from misuse by AGI systems. As AGI can process vast amounts of data, safeguarding privacy is paramount.

  • Bias and fairness: Preventing discriminatory practices and ensuring equitable access to AGI benefits. Developers must ensure that AGI systems are free from biases that could lead to unfair treatment.

  • Employment: Addressing the impact of AGI on job displacement and workforce dynamics. As AGI automates tasks, there is a need to consider its impact on employment and provide support for affected workers.

The integration of AGI into society requires a thoughtful approach to its governance, ensuring that it serves the common good and respects social values.

Can blockchain power AGI?

AGI could create computers as smart as humans, revolutionizing fields like cryptocurrency trading or market analysis. But AGI needs trust and fairness to work for everyone. Blockchain, the tech behind Bitcoin and Ethereum, offers a secure, transparent way to make this happen. 

Here’s how blockchain can supercharge AGI with crypto-inspired solutions:

  • Clear training records: Blockchain works like Bitcoin’s open transaction log, recording every piece of data (e.g., crypto trading patterns) used to train AGI. This helps ensure the system is fair and free from hidden biases.
  • Shared decision-making: Similar to Ethereum’s smart contracts, blockchain will allow developers, traders and users to vote on AGI’s rules, ensuring no single company controls it.
  • Safe data sharing: Like crypto wallets safeguarding funds, blockchain could protect sensitive data from crypto exchanges, allowing secure sharing for AGI training without leaks.
  • Rewards for fairness: Developers who build unbiased AGI, such as accurate trading predictors, could earn digital tokens, just like crypto mining rewards, encouraging ethical work.

However, ongoing challenges such as blockchain’s slow speed, delays in crypto transactions and limited storage capacity could make it hard for AGI to process data quickly or handle large datasets.

To make blockchain AGI-ready, researchers are already exploring:

  • Offchain storage: Decentralized systems like InterPlanetary File System (IPFS) are used to store large files offchain, while the blockchain keeps only verifiable hashes, reducing congestion.
  • Sharding and danksharding: Like Ethereum’s scalability upgrades, sharding splits data across multiple nodes, allowing AGI to process more information without slowing down the network. Also, danksharding, an advanced form of sharding being developed for Ethereum, combines rollups and data availability sampling to scale data access efficiently — ideal for real-time AGI applications.
  • Data pruning: Advanced blockchain models like Decentralized Artificial Intelligent Blockchain-based Computing Network (DAIBCN) prune old or irrelevant data, keeping the system lean and optimized for high-demand tasks like AGI. DAIBCN also enables secure, distributed AI computing — blending blockchain trust with AI performance.
The future of AGI

Artificial general intelligence represents the pinnacle of AI development, promising capabilities that rival human intellect. 

While AGI can simulate aspects of human thinking, achieving true human-like cognition remains a distant goal. Consciousness, emotional depth and creativity are intrinsic to human experience and pose significant challenges for AGI. 

Nevertheless, the pursuit of AGI continues to drive innovation and reshape our understanding of intelligence. As we advance toward this frontier, it is imperative to navigate ethical considerations and societal impacts to responsibly harness AGI’s potential.

Ongoing research, identifying practical opportunities and technical requirements, and initiating dialogue across society are all essential steps to address the challenges and opportunities posed by AGI. 

The future of AGI holds promise, but it requires a balanced approach to ensure that its eventual integration into society enhances human well-being and respects ethical standards.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 18:40

Pakistan Test-Fires Nuke-Capable Ballistic Missile As Tensions With India Soar

Zero Hedge -

Pakistan Test-Fires Nuke-Capable Ballistic Missile As Tensions With India Soar

Pakistan's military has announced the successful test-firing of a ballistic missile as tensions with fellow nuclear-armed neighbor India grow following the terror attack on Indian-administered Kashmir last month, which resulted in 26 civilians massacred.

Pakistan's government unveiled that it was Abdali Weapon System, a surface-to-surface missile with a range of 450km (280 miles), which can deliver either conventional or nuclear warheads.

The statement underscored that the launch was "aimed at ensuring the operational readiness of troops and validating key technical parameters, including the missile’s advanced navigation system and enhanced maneuverability features."

The timing of the launch significantly raises the temperature in the region, and will be taken as an ultra-provocative 'warning' from India's perspective. Starting last week Pakistan said it fears a military incursion by the Indian Army could be 'imminent'.

Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar had said days ago Islamabad had "credible intelligence" that India has planning a military strikes "within 24 to 36 hours" - but apart from sporadic small arms border fire exchanged between each side, this scenario hasn't materialized.

A video of the new launch featured military personnel chanting in Urdu "Allah is the greatest. Long live Pakistan" - which again, is clearly a message aimed at Pakistan's Hindu-majority rival India.

Pakistan's Joint Chiefs of Staff "expressed complete confidence in the operational preparedness and technical proficiency of Pakistan’s Strategic Forces to ensure credible minimum deterrence and safeguard national security against any aggression," according to a national broadcaster.

State-produced footage of Saturday's ballistic missile launch overseen by the military:

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has meanwhile said he is holding dialogue within past days with officials from both sides. "We are reaching out to both parties, and telling, of course, them to not escalate the situation," a statement from the State Dept said.

The only significant military action so far is that Pakistan's military said last Tuesday it shot down an Indian spy drone over Kashmir, alleging that the UAV breached Pakistani-administered territory.

This could be the most dangerous moment in many years, given the two south Asian powerhouses have fought no less than three historic wars. Is another on the horizon? Regional diplomats and UN officials are scrambling to ensure de-escalation.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 18:05

Steering Clients Away From Investing Mistakes

The Big Picture -

 

 

Fun conversation in Barron’s about Steering Clients Away From Bad Investing Mistakes. Douglas Boneparth of Bone Fide Wealth, Jennifer Li of EP Wealth Advisors, and yours truly.

We discuss anticipating and thwarting the bad behavior where investors hurts themselves:

“Avoiding bad choices lies at the heart of How Not to Invest, a new book by Barry Ritholtz, the founder and chief investment officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management, a financial planning firm with $5.6 billion in assets under management. Ritholtz said that the book draws inspiration from leading investment minds such as Charles Ellis, the founder of consulting firm Greenwich Associates and the former chairman of the Yale Endowment, and the late Charlie Munger, a vice chairman at Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett’s longtime sidekick. Both investors, says Ritholtz, subscribed to the view that “we are all better off if we just make fewer mistakes.”

Lots of good advice from the trio.

Check it out here.

 

 

Source:
How Next-Generation Advisors Steer Clients Away From Bad Investing Mistakes
A key role of a financial advisor is to prevent clients from making rash decisions during volatile markets.
By John Kimelman
Barron’s May 01, 2025

The post Steering Clients Away From Investing Mistakes appeared first on The Big Picture.

Pentagon 'Covering Up' American Casualties In Yemen War: Intercept Report

Zero Hedge -

Pentagon 'Covering Up' American Casualties In Yemen War: Intercept Report

Via The Cradle

US President Donald Trump is facing growing scrutiny for withholding information about US military casualties resulting from the ongoing illegal military campaign in Yemen.

According to a report by The Intercept published Saturday, US Central Command (CENTCOM), the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and the White House have refused to disclose how many US service members have been killed or wounded since the launch of Operation Rough Rider in March 2025.

Source: US Fleet Forces Command

The operation has involved over 1,000 US airstrikes against the Ansarallah-led Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) and killed hundreds of Yemenis, including many civilians.

Representative Ro Khanna of California criticized the White House, calling for full disclosure. "The administration should be transparent about the number of US casualties from the attacks on the Houthis," he said, referring to Ansarallah. His colleague, Representative Pramila Jayapal of Washington, echoed the sentiment, warning that US forces should never have been put in harm’s way through unconstitutional military action lacking Congressional approval.

One recent incident underscored the risks: an F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jet fell off the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier earlier this week after the ship reportedly made a sharp turn to avoid a Yemeni missile. One sailor was injured, and the $60 million jet was lost.

When The Intercept asked the Pentagon for casualty figures, officials deflected and directed the inquiry to CENTCOM. After this CENTCOM referred the request to the White House, which has remained silent.

Under the previous administration of Joe Biden, detailed casualty and attack data from across West Asia were regularly released, The Intercept noted.

The contrast has alarmed advocacy groups. Erik Sperling of Just Foreign Policy stated, "Withholding basic information from the public makes it harder for the media to shine light on how these officials are violating one of Trump’s most broadly popular campaign promises."

The Intercept report follows an order issued by US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Friday for the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier to remain in West Asia for another week, marking the second time its deployment has been extended amid ongoing military operations against Yemen.

Meanwhile, Trump’s former national security adviser, Michael Waltz, was dismissed this week in part for including a journalist in sensitive discussions about Yemen strikes. Waltz had also pushed for greater military action against Iran and reportedly coordinated closely with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu — actions that clashed with Trump’s more cautious approach, according to administration sources.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 17:30

Is This The Man Who Created COVID-19 In Fauci's US Lab?

Zero Hedge -

Is This The Man Who Created COVID-19 In Fauci's US Lab?

Authored by Will Jones via The Brownstone Institute,

Top US virologist Ralph Baric engineered the Covid-19 virus SARS-CoV-2 in his lab at the University of North Carolina as part of his work in connection with the 2018 DEFUSE funding proposal. That’s the story that’s been going round the internet for some months now (and not just in alternative media) and it all looks very damning for Baric and those connected with his research.

Details of the DEFUSE project were first leaked by Major Joseph Murphy, an employee of US military research agency DARPA, in the summer of 2021 and further details of earlier drafts have come to light this month thanks to public record requests from U.S. Right to Know (USRTK).

In DEFUSE, Baric proposed to create a virus that was, to most intents and purposes, SARS-CoV-2. The proposal included inserting a furin cleavage site into a coronavirus spike protein, an order for the restrictive enzyme BsmBI, the search for a binding domain that would infect ACE2 human receptors and a requirement for a viral genome around 25% different to SARS.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus contains a furin cleavage site in its spike protein, its genome includes the restrictive enzyme BsmBI, it has a receptor binding domain finely tuned to infect the ACE2 human receptor and its genome is around 25% different to SARS. A number of virologists have said that such features make SARS-CoV-2 a smoking gun for an engineered virus.

Baric obtained a patent for such novel viruses in 2018, just as he was putting DEFUSE together. In DEFUSE he proposed to infect wild Chinese bats with his newly patented viruses.

Many regard this as case closed for the lab leak.

But this is not the full story. That’s because Baric’s DEFUSE proposal did not win the DARPA funding. 

And while it is rightly pointed out that, with or without the funding, much of the work was already in hand, it’s what happened next with the winning DARPA proposal where the story really gets interesting.

US researcher Jim Haslam has done an incredible job on his Substack article Reverse engineering the origins of SARS-CoV-2 documenting all the toings and froings among the virology community in connection with the creation of this peculiar virus and the subsequent cover-up. What follows is in large part indebted to his meticulous research, though any errors are of course my own.

The winning 2018 DARPA bid was for a project called PREEMPT led by Dr. Vincent Munster (pictured above) based at Anthony Fauci’s NIH Rocky Mountain Lab. Both PREEMPT and Baric’s losing DEFUSE project had the same basic idea: to try to prevent a (hypothetical) future pandemic by using an engineered SARS virus to vaccinate the bats from which it is believed such a virus was likely to spill over.

The idea being, of course, that the vaccinated bats would no longer be a reservoir for the virus, thus ‘defusing’ or ‘preempting’ the zoonotic spillover. Sounds crazy? Too right – far too much meddling with nature and placing too much faith in the ability of vaccines to prevent infection and transmission. But crazy or not, that’s what the scientists proposed, and PREEMPT won and DEFUSE lost.

The key difference between Baric’s DEFUSE and Munster’s PREEMPT – aside from PREEMPT coming in around $4 million cheaper at $10 million – is that rather than relying on spraying bat caves with a non-transmissible virus-vaccine, Munster’s plan involved making the virus-vaccine transmit between the bats via aerosols. This made it a self-spreading vaccine, able (in theory) to reach all the bats without humans having to go and find all their caves and spray them. The risks of such a plan should have been obvious. Indeed, Baric himself, who went awfully quiet after his DEFUSE project leaked in mid-2021, resurfaced in mid-2023 to say that such work involving engineering transmissible virus-vaccines was “too edgy” for him.

After the DARPA funding went to PREEMPT, Fauci rode to Baric’s rescue with a bumper $82 million programme called CREID, awarded in summer 2019, in which both Baric and Munster’s teams would cooperate in the research into Munster’s concept of self-spreading bat vaccines.

Exactly what happened next is not publicly documented, so we do need to fill in some gaps. 

It appears that Munster took Baric’s patented SARS virus-vaccine and made a transmissible version at his Rocky Mountain Lab (Baric’s version was not intended to be transmissible). What is the evidence for that? Perhaps most telling is that, as Haslam observes, SARS-CoV-2 transmits efficiently in only five known mammals, and those five – American deerAmerican deer miceSyrian hamstersAmerican mink, and Egyptian fruit bats – are all found in Munster (and Fauci’s) Rocky Mountain Lab in Montana. SARS-CoV-2 doesn’t infect lab animals common in Chinese labs or present in the WIV, such as Chinese horseshoe bats. This would suggest that SARS-CoV-2 acquired its transmissibility in an American lab context and not a Chinese one or elsewhere.

The virus-vaccine having been made transmissible in Montana, it would then have been sent to the WIV to be tested on Chinese bats, which were not available in American labs. There can be little doubt who would have done this testing at the WIV, as there was only one scientist with the necessary connections and expertise.

Dr. Danielle Anderson, known as Dani to her colleagues, gained fame in June 2021 as the “last and only foreign scientist in the Wuhan lab” as she went public to make the case for a zoonotic origin. Dani was a member of the Lancet origins commission, chaired by Jeffrey Sachs and disbanded by him in October 2021 over frustrations that the Western virologists like Dani weren’t cooperating. Dani was based on and off at the WIV in the high security BSL4 lab (not Shi Zhengli’s BSL2 lab), but she didn’t work for the WIV. She worked for Duke-NUS, the Singapore-based medical school of North Carolina’s Duke University, under the virologist Dr. Linfa Wang. Linfa and Anderson were part of Baric’s DEFUSE proposal, and Duke-NUS was later a partner in Fauci’s CREID project.

Anderson’s role in DEFUSE was to test the virus-vaccines on “wild-caught captive” Chinese horseshoe bats at the WIV. It is thus reasonable to assume it is her who would be responsible for testing Munster’s self-spreading virus-vaccine on the same Chinese bats. This would explain how the virus got to Wuhan.

It would explain, in other words, how a non-transmissible virus-vaccine designed by Ralph Baric at UNC as per the DEFUSE proposal became a transmissible virus and ended up on the loose in Wuhan. Namely, because it escaped via a laboratory-acquired infection during Anderson’s testing of it on Chinese horseshoe bats in her WIV BSL4 lab, with Dani herself or a colleague as patient zero.

Admittedly, we don’t have direct evidence of this – we don’t have direct evidence that a Munster-Baric SARS-2 virus-vaccine was being tested on Chinese bats in the WIV in 2019, nor that Dr. Anderson or a colleague was infected by it in the lab. But there is a heap of evidence that points to it as a likely scenario.

We know, for instance, that both Baric and Munster were proposing to vaccinate Chinese bats using an engineered virus based on SARS, with a furin cleavage site inserted to increase infectivity. We know that Munster’s PREEMPT proposal, in which the virus-vaccine was to be self-spreading, won the DARPA funding, beating Baric’s DEFUSE proposal for a non-self-spreading virus-vaccine, and that in 2019 both teams were brought together in an $82 million grant from Fauci’s NIAID.

We know that SARS-CoV-2 readily transmits in the lab animals found in Munster’s Rocky Mountain Lab but not in the lab animals found in the WIV. From this we can further conclude that Dr. Anderson’s experiment to infect Chinese horseshoe bats with the new virus at the WIV presumably failed. This may be why she left Wuhan at the end of November, which was the deadline for the ‘scientific merit review’ for CREID.

We also know that where Dani and her colleagues lived in central Wuhan was an early epicentre for the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, based on social media data.

It also appears that Dani’s supervisor Linfa Wang may have quickly realised that SARS-CoV-2 was one of his viruses. This would explain why he resigned from his post as Director of Duke’s Emerging Infectious Disease programme, a position he had held for nearly a decade, on the same day that the genome was published, January 10th 2020. The reason for his abrupt resignation has never been disclosed.

Four days earlier he had told the New York Times he was frustrated that scientists in China were not allowed to speak to him about the outbreak. He cautioned against panic, arguing the virus was likely not spreading between humans because health workers had not contracted the disease. But privately was he fretting that it was from his lab – is that why he immediately resigned when the genome was published? It is hard to understand what else could have led him to quit so suddenly at that point, and the lack of explanation adds to the suspicion. He later called January 10th “the most important day in the Covid-19 outbreak” because it was when the genome was published.

If Linfa was anticipating the bad news, it could have been because he and Dani had been aware of the leak at the time it happened. Analysis of mobile phone records discovered an apparent shutdown of Dr. Anderson’s BSL4 lab between October 7th and 24th 2019 (identified by the lack of mobile phone usage in the vicinity). Nothing further has come to light about this incident and what lay behind it, but if it does denote a laboratory-acquired infection that Anderson and Linfa (and presumably others) were aware of, it would explain a lot.

Such a scenario would also explain why Shi Zhengli had been eager to publish the sequence for the RaTG13 virus she held (the preprint appeared on January 23rd 2020), despite this suggesting to many a non-natural origin of SARS-CoV-2. In the paper, the WIV scientist implied that SARS-CoV-2 had not emerged naturally from RaTG13, despite it being the closest known virus (“no evidence for recombination events was detected in the genome”). Publishing it showed that her (BSL2) lab had nothing to hide as it was not involved in the work. The realisation that it was an engineered virus from the US may also have driven the panic that pushed the Chinese Government to lock Wuhan down around the same time.

Since 2021, Ralph Baric has thrown himself into developing vaccines for SARS-CoV-2 and other coronaviruses, even entertaining fantasies of “ring vaccination,” as is done with Ebola, to try to stop the outbreak in its tracks. 

Is this his way of trying to make amends, however misguided?

I wonder if we are also able to detect a hint of him pointing to who he thinks is really to blame for the debacle, when he remarks that “governments, rather than scientists” are primarily responsible for choosing which risky gain-of-function experiments to fund and run – a reference perhaps to how Munster’s “edgy” engineering of transmissible virus-vaccines was picked over his non-transmissible version.

“It looks like American science is going to get shredded for a pandemic that started in China,” he told Time‘s Dan Werb, reverting to denial. When Werb suggested to him that despite the “conspiracy theories” there are many people happy that he became a scientist in the first place, he replied:

“A fair number that probably wished I hadn’t. Let’s be honest.”

Is that the closest we’ll get to a confession?

Republished from The Daily Sceptic

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 15:10

FBI Reportedly Places Infamous Censorship Agent On 'Terminal Leave'

Zero Hedge -

FBI Reportedly Places Infamous Censorship Agent On 'Terminal Leave'

Elvis Chan, the FBI’s Assistant Special Agent in Charge in San Francisco, has reportedly been placed on “terminal leave” and has not accessed agency systems for over a month, according to independent journalist Breanna Morello.

Chan has faced scrutiny for his alleged role in coordinating with social media platforms, including X (formerly Twitter), to censor conservatives during the 2020 presidential election, which saw President Joe Biden defeat President Donald Trump. In September 2023, House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) issued a subpoena compelling Chan to testify about the FBI’s interactions with tech companies, which Jordan described as potential “coercion and collusion” to censor speech, according to the New York Post.

Chan, who served as a liaison to companies like Facebook and Twitter through the FBI’s Foreign Influence Task Force, did not attend a scheduled interview with the committee, prompting the subpoena, Jordan said, per the Post.

During a 2023 deposition with attorneys general from Louisiana and Missouri, Chan denied having “internal knowledge” of efforts to suppress a 2020 New York Post story about Hunter Biden’s laptop.

Morello notes:

The controversy surrounding Chan coincides with a 2023 ruling by the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals, which found that the FBI, White House, U.S. Surgeon General, CDC, and CISA likely violated First Amendment rights by “coercing or significantly encouraging” social media platforms to censor content.

...

Chan, who identifies with “he/him” pronouns on his LinkedIn profile, still lists himself as the Assistant Special Agent in Charge at the FBI’s San Francisco Bay office, where he has served for over 19 years.

The FBI has not commented on Morello’s report.

The allegations against Chan come amid broader efforts by the Trump administration to protect free speech. In January, President Donald Trump signed an executive order prohibiting federal agencies from labeling citizen speech as “misinformation” or “disinformation.” Addressing the World Economic Forum, Trump said the order aimed to “safeguard free speech” and halt practices that “stifle the exchange of ideas.”

Last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the closure of the Global Engagement Center, a State Department entity criticized for its role in monitoring online speech. In an op-ed published in The Federalist, Rubio cited a 2020 GEC report that flagged speculation about COVID-19’s origins, including theories about a Wuhan lab, as part of a “Russian disinformation” campaign.
"Finally, as we recommit this country to its core constitutional free speech principles at home, we will remain vigilant abroad — not just against threats from adversaries such as Communist China but also from less expected countries where authoritarian censorship is gradually strangling true freedom of speech," Rubio added. "We are not afraid. At her birth, America was a lone beacon of freedom to the world. If necessary, we will happily be that lone beacon once again."

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 14:44

Fetterman Ex-Chief Of Staff Sounded Mental Health Alarm To Senator's Doctor

Zero Hedge -

Fetterman Ex-Chief Of Staff Sounded Mental Health Alarm To Senator's Doctor

Democratic Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman's former chief of staff was so alarmed by his mental health last year that he sounded an alarm with the Walter Reed doctor who treated him during his lengthy in-patient stay for severe depression in 2023. Former aides who are in contact with Fetterman's shrinking inner circle say his behavior continues to cause periodic concern about his danger to himself and those around him. 

“I’m worried that if John stays on his current trajectory he won’t be with us for much longer,” wrote Adam Jentleson in his 2024 email to Dr. David Williamson, neuropsychiatry chief at Walter Reed. Jentleson sent the email in May, weeks after he resigned from Fetterman's staff. In quitting, he became the fifth top aide to jump ship since Fetterman beat Trump-endorsed TV doctor Mehmet Oz in 2022. 

Fetterman with his wife Gisele, whom he nearly killed by falling asleep at the wheel last year

Jentleson's 1,600-word email, first reported by New York Magazine, referenced many warning signs that Fetterman's family and other close confidants had been told to watch out for: 

“We often see the kind of warning signs we discussed. Conspiratorial thinking; megalomania (for example, he claims to be the most knowledgeable source on Israel and Gaza around but his sources are just what he reads in the news — he declines most briefings and never reads memos); high highs and low lows; long, rambling, repetitive and self centered monologues; lying in ways that are painfully, awkwardly obvious to everyone in the room.”

"We do not know if he is taking his meds, and his behavior frequently suggests he is not," wrote Jentleson, and a staffer told New York there have been days when aides would make sure nobody from outside the office came into contact with him -- days when he was in "some sort of state" where he could potentially say some "really fucked-up shit to constituents." In February, Fetterman was recorded being uncooperative with a pilot directing the overweight senator to either adhere to FAA rules requiring that one's fastened seatbelt is visible, or get off the plane: 

Sources describe tension between Fetterman and his wife. "In March, Fetterman suddenly took an early-morning trip to Hartford, Connecticut, without telling his team why — leaving them at a loss for what to tell Gisele when she demanded to know why he was missing one of their kids’ birthdays," according to New York. Fetterman disputed the account, explaining he was visiting a grad-school friend's grave and claiming that his family and aides knew about it.

In his email last year, Jentleson also said Fetterman was avoiding his doctors: "He long ago ordered us to stop putting regular drop-bys with Dr. Monahan on his schedule, despite the fact that he had agreed to those as part of the plan." In group-texts from March 2024, staffers noted that the blood tests that were to be included in those appointments were "pillars of the recovery plan." Fetterman consultant Eric Stern wrote, "Is there any universe in which [his wife] Gisele could convince him to get his levels checked? I’m honestly just worried for him and don’t know who else could get through to him.”

Jentleson worried about Fetterman growing increasingly isolated, telling Williamson that “John has pushed out everyone who was supposed to help keep him on his recovery plan." He said the senator was spending hours gazing at this phone and composing tweets. Fetterman was said to have previously acknowledged that a preoccupation with social media was a principal "accelerant" of his depression.   

"He engages in risky behavior," wrote Jentleson. "He drives recklessly: he FaceTimes, texts and reads entire news articles while driving — and I don’t mean while stopped at a light or something, he reads and FaceTimes while driving at high speeds." The warning about Fetterman's driving would soon prove prophetic -- almost fatally so. The next month, driving with his wife Gisele, Fetterman rammed his 2021 Chevy Traverse into the back of a car driven by a 61-year-old woman.

“It’s a miracle no one died,” a police officer said. Both vehicles were totaled and all three people were hospitalized, with Gisele suffering a bruised lung and spinal fractures. Police Fetterman was going "well over" the 70 mph limit on I-70. Fetterman admitted to falling asleep at the wheel. His staff had worried about that very possibility, as Fetterman's accident happened after he took a red-eye flight from California where he appeared on Bill Maher's show. He ignored his aides' pleas to ask someone to pick him up at the airport and drive him. 

Fetterman called the New York Magazine article a "hit piece" by two conspiring friends, Jentleson and writer Ben Terris, who "sourced anonymous, disgruntled staffers with lies or distorted half-truths," adding that “my ACTUAL doctors and my family affirmed that I’m very well.” His wife Gisele similarly accused Jentleson of lying. 

Fetterman had a near-fatal stroke on May 13, 2022 -- four days before the Pennsylvania primary -- and was left with communications impairments that were painfully evident on those occasions where his campaign dared put him in front of cameras and microphones: 

His depression hospitalization came just days after a lengthy and jarring New York Times profile that obliterated previous campaign assurances of Fetterman's fitness for Senate duty following his stroke. His treatment included medications, talk therapy and therapeutic walks at Walter Reed's rooftop healing garden. According to a discharge brief written by Williamson, Fetterman suffered “severe symptoms of depression with low energy and motivation, minimal speech, poor sleep, slowed thinking, slowed movement, feelings of guilt and worthlessness." He didn't have suicidal thoughts, according to the doctor. 

Mental health tip for the senator: To fend off feelings of worthlessness, don't dress like you're worthless (ABC News)

After taping a podcast inteview with Fetterman in April, The Bulwark's Tim Miller said Fetterman is "struggling. He’s, like, really struggling. And I just think coming off of the Biden thing, we should not be hiding the ball on this sort of stuff.” Of course, cynics have to wonder if leftist media's interest in illuminating the state of Fetterman's mental health has anything to do with his lean toward conservative stances, such as his backing of stricter immigration and border control. 

After all, the Biden scandal showed that Democrats are all too happy to conceal major mental impairments up until the point they pose a risk to the leftist agenda.  

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 14:35

Real Estate Newsletter Articles this Week: House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in February

Calculated Risk -

FAA Starts Probe After Two More Near-Misses With Army Helicopter At Washington Reagan Airport

Zero Hedge -

FAA Starts Probe After Two More Near-Misses With Army Helicopter At Washington Reagan Airport

US federal investigators have launched a probe after two commercial flights were ordered to abort their landings at Reagan Washington National Airport on Thursday when a U.S. Army Black Hawk helicopter approached the area en route to the Pentagon Army Heliport.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) said on May 2 that air traffic control told Delta Air Lines Flight 1671, an Airbus A319 that had originated in Orlando, and Republic Airways Flight 5825, an Embraer 170 that had departed from Boston, to perform go-arounds at around 2.30pm due to a priority military air transport helicopter in the vicinity.

The incident is under investigation by the FAA and the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB).

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) and the US Army are also investigating.

“While conducting flight operations into the Pentagon in accordance with published FAA flight routes and DCA Air Traffic Control, a UH-60 Black Hawk was directed by Pentagon Air Traffic Control to conduct a ‘go-around’, overflying the Pentagon helipad in accordance with approved flight procedures,” the US Army said in a statement.

“As a result, DCA Air Traffic Control issued a ‘go-around’ to two civil fixed wing aircraft to ensure the appropriate de-confliction of airspace.”

As Rudy Blalock reports for The Epoch Times, following a deadly mid-air collision on Jan. 29 involving an American Airlines regional jet and an Army Black Hawk helicopter, which resulted in 67 fatalities, the FAA has imposed permanent restrictions on non-essential helicopter operations around Reagan Washington National Airport.

The FAA told Congress it is reviewing the Army helicopter’s route in Thursday’s “loss of separation” incidents and is determining whether the route violated an agreement with the Army.

“It appears the Black Hawk operation did not proceed directly to the Pentagon Heliport. Instead it took a scenic route around the Pentagon versus proceeding directly from the west to the heliport,” the FAA said in a memo.

Delta Air Lines reported that Flight 1671 was carrying five crew members and 97 passengers. 

“Nothing is more important at Delta than the safety of our customers and people. We’ll cooperate with the FAA as they investigate,” the airline said on Friday.

In separate statements to NTD News, Delta and Republic Airways said they are cooperating with the authorities investigating the incident. 

The Pentagon did not respond to a request for comment by publication.

Sen. Maria Cantwell, the top Democrat on the Commerce Committee, criticized the fact that the same Army brigade flew a helicopter too close to Reagan Washington National Airport months after the fatal collision in January.

It is outrageous that only three months after an Army Black Hawk helicopter tragically collided with a passenger jet, the same Army brigade again flew a helicopter too close to passenger jets on final approach at [the airport]. This comes less than a week after this brigade resumed flights in the National Capital Region. It is far past time for Secretary Hegseth and the FAA to give our airspace the security and safety attention it deserves,” she said in a statement.

The FAA in March permanently closed one key route and banned the use of two smaller runways at the airport when helicopters conducting urgent missions are operating near the airport.

The FAA is also investigating helicopter traffic near other major airports and recently announced changes to address safety concerns in other regions.

According to the NTSB, between October 2021 and December 2024, 85 recorded events at the airport involved a potentially dangerous near-miss between a helicopter and a plane, defined as a lateral separation of less than 1,500 feet and a vertical separation of less than 200 feet.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 13:25

A New Era: The ₿itcoin-Backed Monetary System

Zero Hedge -

A New Era: The ₿itcoin-Backed Monetary System

Submitted by Tephra Digital,

Executive Summary 

Since the collapse of Bretton Woods in 1971, the U.S. Dollar has functioned as a fiat currency. The petrodollar agreement in 1974 tied the Dollar indirectly to oil, reinforcing global demand for the Dollar. Today, with increasing skepticism toward fiat currencies and a rising interest in decentralized assets like Bitcoin, the U.S. could consider a new monetary system backed by Bitcoin as a digital, scarce, and decentralized asset. Bitcoin effectively delivers a more modern, automated and software-based approach to central banking.

This piece explores the viability of a Bitcoin-backed monetary system in the context of key historical financial developments, as well as the strategic path for its implementation. 

The report concludes with an actionable strategy relevant to policymakers, financial institutions and investors. 

  • July 1944 – The Bretton Woods Agreement: The Bretton Woods Conference established the U.S. Dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency, backed by gold. Under this system, the U.S. Dollar was pegged to gold at a fixed rate of $35 per ounce, while other major currencies were pegged to the U.S. Dollar. This agreement created a stable global monetary framework anchored by the U.S. Dollar’s convertibility into gold, and it laid the foundation for post-World War II economic growth. 

  • August 1971 – Nixon Closes the Gold Window (“Nixon Shock”): President Nixon suspended the Dollar’s convertibility into gold. This marked the transition of the U.S. dollar from a gold-backed currency to a fiat currency whose value was determined by government decree rather than any fixed and independent asset. 

  • October 1973 – The Oil Crisis and Price Shock: In response to U.S. and Western support for Israel, OPEC (led by Saudi Arabia) imposed an oil embargo on the U.S. and several Western nations. The embargo led to a severe shortage of oil, causing prices to quadruple from around $3 per barrel to $12 per barrel by early 1974. This sudden spike in energy costs triggered widespread inflation, economic disruption, and a global crisis that drove stagflation (simultaneously high inflation and high unemployment) in the Western economies. 

  • June 1974 – The U.S.-Saudi Petrodollar Agreement: The U.S. and Saudi Arabia reached a pivotal agreement that laid the foundation for the petrodollar system, which later expanded to include other OPEC nations. The establishment of the petrodollar solidified the U.S. Dollar’s status as the world’s primary reserve currency, as the global demand for Dollars increased in conjunction with oil transactions. This arrangement also supported the growth of oil production worldwide and reduced OPEC’s strategic leverage, while providing the U.S. with a reliable source of foreign investment and demand for US government debt. 

  • October 2008 – Release of the Bitcoin Whitepaper: In the wake of the global financial crisis and major bank failures, an anonymous inventor known as Satoshi Nakamoto published Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System. The paper described a transaction network requiring no third-party financial institutions or government intermediaries whatsoever. 

  • March 2009 – The Federal Reserve Launches Quantitative Easing (QE): In response to the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Reserve implemented its first round of Quantitative Easing (QE), purchasing U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities to inject liquidity into the financial system. This unprecedented monetary policy expanded the Fed’s balance sheet and marked the beginning of a prolonged period of U.S. Dollar debasement, fueling sustained asset price inflation. 

  • December 2012 – The U.S. Debt-to-GDP Ratio Surpasses 100%: For the first time since World War II, the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 100%, signaling a shift to a highly leveraged fiscal position. This milestone underscored the growing reliance on debt-financed government spending and raised concerns about long-term fiscal sustainability. 

  • April 2020 – The Fed Launches Aggressive Quantitative Easing Amid COVID-19 Pandemic: To counter the economic fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve initiated a new round of aggressive QE, again expanding its balance sheet by purchasing Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities at an even greater scale. This increase in the money supply significantly debased the U.S. Dollar and drove a surge in asset prices, further exacerbating wealth inequality. 

  • February 2022 – The U.S. Freezes Russia’s Foreign Currency Reserves and Weaponizes the U.S. Dollar: In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the U.S. and its allies imposed severe financial sanctions, freezing Russia’s foreign currency reserves held across Western banks. This action marked a turning point in global financial diplomacy, as it weaponized the U.S. Dollar and raised concerns among other nations about the risks of holding dollar-denominated reserves.

  • March 2022 – Shift Away from the U.S. Dollar in Global Oil Trade: Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, several oilproducing nations began entering bilateral agreements with their trading partners to settle oil transactions in currencies other than the U.S. Dollar. This signaled a potential erosion of the petrodollar system, as countries sought alternatives to reduce reliance on the U.S. Dollar in global trade. 

  • June 2023 – Suspension of the U.S. Debt Ceiling: Congress eliminated the debt ceiling, removing the statutory limit on federal government borrowing. This decision effectively allowed unlimited borrowing, raising concerns about unchecked fiscal policy and the potential acceleration of U.S. debt growth, putting further pressure on the Dollar’s stability.

  • January 2024 – Bitcoin ETF Approved: The SEC approved the first spot Bitcoin ETF, paving the way for broader retail and institutional investment. This milestone legitimized Bitcoin, and the ETF wrapper provided easier access for investors, driving increased demand and significant capital inflows. 

  • July 2024 – Trump Privately Refers to Bitcoin as “The New Oil”: In a private conversation leaked to the media (but not covered by the mainstream media), former President Donald Trump described Bitcoin as “the New Oil,” signaling a potential shift in U.S. policy toward digital assets. The statement suggests a recognition of Bitcoin’s growing role as a strategic asset in the global financial system. 

  • November 5, 2024 – Donald Trump Wins U.S. Presidential Election: In a decisive and landslide electoral victory, Donald Trump is re-elected as President of the United States, with Republicans taking control of both the House and Senate. The election outcome marks a turning point for U.S. policy on digital assets and an end to unfettered regulatory hostility. The Trump administration commits to regulatory clarity, favorable tax policies, the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, and a framework that supports widespread digital asset adoption by individuals, institutions, corporations, pensions and governments. 

  • November 8, 2024 – First Middle Eastern Crude Oil Transaction Using Tether Trade Finance: The world’s largest stablecoin firm, Tether, used its trade finance platform to complete its first funding of a crude oil transaction in the Middle East, settling in USDT. This groundbreaking deal appears to herald a major shift in global trade finance, showcasing the adoption of stablecoins as an alternative settlement mechanism for major commodity transactions outside of the traditional banking system. 

The Future, and the Case for a Bitcoin-Backed U.S. Monetary System: 

Under the petrodollar system, the U.S. effectively allowed the price of oil to rise (in Dollar terms), which increased global oil production and mitigated the strategic threat posed by OPEC. By creating a large, Dollar-denominated asset class (oil), the U.S. also established a mechanism to support the Dollar’s dominance abroad and finance its growing deficits at home. Surplus oil revenues from OPEC nations were recycled into U.S. Treasuries, reinforcing demand for the Dollar and giving the U.S. tremendous economic power globally. 

Domestically, this system enabled politicians to engage in extensive borrowing and spending, driving U.S. debt from 36% of GDP in 1971 to ~125% today, a trajectory that now poses a serious challenge to the U.S. as a financial superpower, as well as its energy and national security. 

Even at a ~$2 trillion market value, and with over ~$20 billion in average daily trading volume, Bitcoin is not yet large enough to replace the petrodollar as the backbone of the U.S. monetary system. However, a significant increase in Bitcoin’s price could catalyze a new paradigm.

Higher Bitcoin prices would likely drive substantial growth in U.S. Dollar-backed stablecoin issuance (due to the greater total market value of the asset class, and as the network effects of Bitcoin and digital asset transactions take hold);.

In turn, stablecoin issuance would directly boost demand for U.S. Treasury bills, effectively shifting the backstop of U.S. deficits from oil to Bitcoin. 

This would allow the U.S. to maintain its monetary dominance while undermining the strategic power of the BRICS nations, who have turned to gold in an attempt to challenge and circumvent the Dollar system. 

There are several recent developments that indicate the groundwork for this transition may already be underway. 

The framework that follows is a preliminary outline of the potential steps towards a Bitcoin-Backed Monetary System.

The 21-Step Integration of Bitcoin into the U.S. Financial System:

Calculating the Required U.S. Ownership of Bitcoin: 

When considering the transition to a Bitcoin-backed monetary system, M2 money supply provides the most comprehensive measure of U.S. Dollar liquidity in the economy. M2 includes not only cash and checking deposits (collectively defined as M1), but also savings accounts, money market funds, and other near-money assets. 

This broader measure captures the full extent of Dollar-denominated assets that circulate and store value within the U.S. economy. 

Key Assumptions: 

  • Current U.S. M2 Money Supply: $22 trillion 

  • Projected U.S. M2 Money Supply in 2045: $79 trillion (applying the 6.7% CAGR from 2000-2024) 

  • Projected Bitcoin Price Target in 2045: $13 million (per Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin24 Model

  • Capital Investment Today: Funded through partial monetization of official existing U.S. gold holdings (8,133 tonnes with a current market value of $764 billion); for simplification, assumes constant price of gold 

  • Fully Diluted Bitcoin Supply: 21 million Bitcoin 

    • Adjustment for Theoretical versus Actual Supply: It is estimated that 3 to 4 million Bitcoin may be lost or irretrievable, making the effective supply closer to 17 to 18 million Bitcoin. However, for simplicity and to maintain a conservative estimate, the maximum supply of 21 million Bitcoin is used 

Below is a table showing the required U.S. ownership of Bitcoin for different levels of backing by 2045:

Bitcoin Backing Scenario Analysis

Note: Analysis is for illustrative purposes only; market data is as of 2/26/2025 and from publicly available sources.

Scenario Overviews: 

1) 25% Backing 

  • This level of backing by the U.S. could serve as a hedge or partial reserve, similar to the role gold used to play in the early 20th century. 

2) 50% Backing 

  • A 50% backing level implies a much more substantial reliance on Bitcoin within the U.S. monetary system. Increasing Bitcoin’s allocation not only accelerates its global adoption and reinforces its credibility as a reserve asset, but it also provides a meaningful hedge against escalating U.S. debt. With projections suggesting that the national debt could balloon to approximately $115 trillion by 2045 (based on extrapolation), a 50% backing could potentially offset up to 34% of that burden.

3) 100% Backing 

  • Full backing would represent a Bitcoin standard, where the entire U.S. M2 money supply is backed by Bitcoin. 

  • A full Bitcoin backing serves as a complete hedge against fiat debasement and central bank policy errors, positions the U.S Dollar as a purely hard-money asset, and reduces Net Debt to GDP to under 100% by reducing nearly 70% of the nation’s debt burden.

A Bitcoin-backed system would leverage Bitcoin’s superior characteristics as a harder and scarcer asset than gold, positioning the U.S. as a first mover in adopting a supranational, independent and digital reserve asset. The concept of transitioning to a new U.S. monetary system backed by Bitcoin as collateral is both ambitious and transformative. It represents a profound shift from the current fiat-based, debt-financed model towards a digital, decentralized, and scarce foundational asset.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 12:50

Temu Ends China Shipments To US After Trump Closes "De Minimis" Loophole

Zero Hedge -

Temu Ends China Shipments To US After Trump Closes "De Minimis" Loophole

Container volumes at one of America's busiest ports are falling fast. President Trump's 145% tariffs on Chinese goods entering the U.S. are wreaking havoc on trans-Pacific containerized trade, triggering a sharp decline in shipments from Chinese ports. 

On Friday, Chinese e-commerce giant Temu halted U.S. deliveries after the Trump administration closed the "de minimis" loophole, which had previously allowed a flood of Chinese junk under $800 to enter tariff-free.

The move signals a further decline in Chinese imports to the U.S. 

Ahead of Friday's end of the de minimis exemption for China-made goods, Temu hiked prices and rolled out a complete breakdown of customer import charges. Singapore-based e-commerce website Shein Group also hiked prices

Temu confirmed late Friday to the New York Times: "This shift is part of Temu's ongoing adjustments to improve service levels." 

The use of de minimis by Chinese e-commerce has surged in recent years, with Temu and Shein connecting U.S. consumers with cheap Chinese goods priced 20% to 30% less than U.S. competitors like Amazon. 

According to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection, nearly 1.4 billion shipments entered the U.S. in 2024 through the de minimis loophole, up from 637 million four years earlier. 

The nuking of the de minimis loophole comes from President Trump, who has previously called the exemption "a big scam" that hurts small American businesses.

Kim Glas, the president of the National Council of Textile Organizations, said the exemption allowed "unsafe and illegal Chinese goods" to flood the U.S. duty-free for years. 

"Today's action by the administration is an important step forward to help rebalance the playing field for American manufacturers," Glas told the NY Times.

Separately, the second edition of Goldman analyst Trina Chen's China Export Tracker—covering 48 companies representing 70% of China's export value to the U.S. by product group—offers new insight into trade flows and growing uncertainty across key trans-Pacific shipping lanes linking Chinese ports to the U.S. West Coast.

Here are some of Chen's findings: 

Nearly 40% of products are seeing substantial impact on their China shipments for U.S. orders, as of week of April 28

U.S. orders were fulfilled- 35% from China shipments, and 57% from ex-China production, as of week of April 28

Impact of U.S. tariffs on the volume of U.S. export orders by product (for China shipment) - as of week of April 28

Ex-China production provides significant supply chain flexibility for many consumer related products

Finished goods inventory in the U.S. quoted by producers and shippers ranged from 1.5 months to 5 months

U.S. monthly container imports are still in positive growth as of March-25, but total imports are projected to fall by nearly 30% in the coming months

Comments from exporters:

  • Orderbook has been received to 3Q25, but uncertainty remains for 4Q25 orders.

  • Orderbooks from the U.S. have not changed, nor have there been rush orders. Visibility of 2025 annual orderbook can be seen to extend to July-August. But later Beyond that, much will depend on tariffs on Vietnam - an escalated level will affect consumer spending and impact 4Q25, thus flexibility of producers should be kept.

  • Shipments from SEA recovered on the back of the 90-day suspension of the reciprocal tariff. Communication with customers was only viable after stabilization. In early April, the shipment of orders to the U.S. mostly stopped, and now new orders have gradually come in. But shipment remains short of full year expectations.

  • Orderbooks for the factories in North America are strong, extending the typical forward visibility from 2-3 months, to 3-4 months. There are still some uncertainties in the export from Cambodia to the U.S., but production and shipment remains normal.

  • There have been no significant changes in orders and demand, and shipments are still being made continuously, all according to customer requirements for timely delivery.

  • There have been no changes observed in orders.

  • The company has not seen advanced or accelerated purchases by U.S. consumers in anticipation of tariff induced price hikes.

  • Considering the uncertainty of tariffs, U.S. customers slightly increased their orders during the 90-day exemption period.

  • U.S. orders are suspended. Other regions have broken large-sized orders into small and higher-frequency orders.

  • Export to Europe might be higher this year. Export to Southeast Asia and South America is on track and there are no major changes.

  • There are no order cuts, although some customers asked to delay or advance in shipment. Production remained at a normal in pace, given that they are all standard products and we can always find buyers can readily be found even if another someone cancels.

  • Normal production and shipment. The customer did not adjust the purchase plan.

  • The current orders from the U.S. have increased by 10% on average, compared to before the reciprocal tariff was announced. The shipments of lawn mowers and clothing can be sent domestically and overseas.

  • Shipments from China to the U.S. have stopped, versus a 30% drop in mid-April.

  • Shipments from China to the U.S. have been are cut off, and have was mostly stopped ~(20%) as of mid of April.

  • Softening demand induced by IRA uncertainty is the key challenge in the U.S. U.S. orders further slowed down in the past two weeks, especially in utility scale projects. Moreover, given final anti-dumping (AD)/countervailing duty (CVD) determination for the four ASEAN countries came in higher than the preliminary version, potentially higher product price in the U.S. could further dampen downstream demand.

  • Solid demand in the U.S. market, with new orders in thousands of units seen from customers. However, Chinese production for the U.S. orders has stopped, and has been fully replaced by products from other regions, with high utilization rate. Orderbook is solid into July, and 2Q shipment to Korea, UK, Australia, India, Brazil and Middle East was solid.

  • Tariffs have had limited impact on the company YTD. Exports to North America have declined slightly, but more driven by the nature of the demand rather than tariffs. And most of the U.S. orders were produced in facilities in Mexico. Alternate supplies are challenging to procure, most of these products are difficult to replace in the short term, and if any, it will still be among Chinese producers.

  • The direct orders for commercial HVAC components from China to the U.S. have been completely suspended, as customers are considering supply chain changes. Production of commercial HVAC in China has not been suspended — although there are no new orders from the U.S., the production can still supply other regions. Residential HVAC components are currently supplied to the U.S. from Vietnam, and there has been no change so far, as per our onshore tariff impact report.

  • Orders for machinery had delays in the first week of April, given the uncertainty. But recovery from the emerging markets started in the second week and continued in the 3rd week.

  • There has been no change in U.S. orders; the currently imposed tariff is not 145%, but lower, because the reciprocal tariffs only apply to a specific list of goods.

  • For the U.S. market, the company is basically either the sole supplier or a critical supplier, making short-term replacement difficult.

  • Producers mainly cooperate with small brands, which can export and change a label and then re-export to the U.S.

  • Producers now take orders from the U.S. as normal, versus suspending the order two weeks ago. The impact on shipments was about 20-50% but gradually recovering. Currently in normal production.

  • Transpacific routes: In mid-April, a sequential decline of 12-13% in container volumes on Transpacific routes (vs. Mar-2025) was observed, and it deepened to 20% in late week of April 21, and may further deepen to 25-30% in May. The container volume from SEA to U.S. is stable. Company believes the decline in transpacific routes is mainly due to the sharp drop in cargo volume departing from China, while cargo volume departing from Southeast Asia is relatively stable. There is some speculation that there is re-export trade involved but it cannot be separated.

  • The company observed container volume increased on China-to-Southeast Asia routes in April vs. March and sees further upside to cargo volumes within the 90-day window of reciprocal tariff delay. Among Southeast Asia routes, Thailand and Vietnam have seen more significant volume growth. Solar-related products have seen larger volume declines, while household goods remain stable.

  • It is expected that De minimis (accounts for 30-40% of U.S. routes cargo) could decline by 45-50% in May after the removal of De minimis on Chinese products takes effect from May 2nd.

.   .   . 

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 12:15

We Don't Need An Executive Order To Bar Illegals From Social Security - We Need A Government That Obeys The Law

Zero Hedge -

We Don't Need An Executive Order To Bar Illegals From Social Security - We Need A Government That Obeys The Law

Authored by Maureen Steele via American Greatness,

In what universe does it make sense that the President of the United States has to sign an executive order to stop illegal aliens from receiving Social Security benefits? That’s not just an absurd headline—it’s a tragic indictment of how far this nation has strayed from the rule of law, common sense, and constitutional integrity.

Let’s get one thing straight: illegal immigrants are already barred from receiving Social Security benefits. Full stop. It’s enshrined in federal law, constitutional precedent, and the very fabric of what it means to be a sovereign nation. Yet here we are, once again watching a president step in with a pen to “reaffirm” what is already carved into stone.

Under Section 1611 of the Social Security Act (42 U.S.C. § 1382c), individuals who are not lawfully present in the United States are categorically ineligible for Supplemental Security Income (SSI). The Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA) explicitly excludes most non-citizens from federal means-tested public benefits. And let’s not forget 8 U.S.C. § 1611, which states unequivocally, “Notwithstanding any other provision of law…an alien who is not a qualified alien…is not eligible for any Federal public benefit.”

Translation: They’re already prohibited.

So why does Trump need to sign an executive order? 

Because we are no longer a nation governed by laws—we are a nation governed by selective enforcement, political cowardice, and bureaucratic betrayal.

While illegals exploit the system through loopholes crafted by activist judges and globalist legislators, hardworking Americans who’ve paid into Social Security their entire lives are being told the well is running dry. They’re mocked with headlines about “entitlement reform” and threatened with benefit cuts, while watching their tax dollars fund services for people who have no legal right to be here.

Let me say this plainly: illegal aliens should not be here. That’s the real issue—not whether they’re tapping into Social Security.

The fact that we have to publicly debate whether to let foreign nationals steal from a system built by and for American workers is the very definition of national rot.

And let’s talk about Social Security itself. 

The system is broken—not because of American retirees, but because of government theft, mismanagement, and legislative sleight of hand. 

Congress has raided the trust fund, spent it on everything from foreign wars to gender studies in Pakistan, and now pretends it’s our fault there’s a shortfall. The average American would be better off putting that 6.2% payroll tax into a private investment fund and watching it grow rather than letting corrupt bureaucrats bleed it out into the black hole of government waste.

You know what would truly protect Social Security? Not just an executive order. Mass deportations. A sealed border. A total shutdown of the welfare pipeline that flows to non-citizens, non-contributors, and non-patriots. 

That would protect American seniors. That would honor the American worker.

And to those who think we need “more laws” to fix this—stop it. We don’t need more laws. We need courage. We need leaders who enforce the laws already on the books. Article IV, Section 4 of the Constitution guarantees every state in this union a republican form of government and protection against invasion. What do you call millions of illegal crossings per year if not an invasion?

This is not about compassion. 

It’s about justice, sovereignty, and survival. 

A nation that can’t tell the difference between a citizen and a foreign intruder isn’t a nation—it’s a playground for parasites.

President Trump’s order may make a splash. It may draw cheers. But let’s not lose sight of the bigger truth: the law is already clear. The Constitution already speaks. The betrayal is not in what’s being signed but in what’s being ignored.

We don’t need more executive orders. We need a government that does its damn job.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 11:40

The State Of Global Fertility

Zero Hedge -

The State Of Global Fertility

South Korea, together with Hong Kong, Macau and Puerto Rico, is one of only a few places in the world with a fertility rate below 1data by the World Bank shows.

In Japan, another Asian country known to struggle with low birth rates, average births per woman remained at 1.2 in 2023. This places the country among the more than 90 in the world where populations are not growing independent of immigration. Also in this group are many nations from Europe, the Americas and Southeast Asia.

Most of the countries losing fertility are better developed and reasons for the trend include greater access to contraception and more women being educated and heading to work.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the chart below, the story is different in the developing world where higher rates of fertility are fueling continued global population growth

 The State of Global Fertility | Statista 

You will find more infographics at Statista

Somalia, Chad, Niger and the Democratic Republic of the Congo had a fertility rates of 6.1 in 2023, the highest in the world, followed by the Central African Republic and Mali. 

Out of the 31 countries in the world where women had 4 or more children on average, 29 were in Africa that year.

On average, women in 1963 were having 5.3 children in their lifetime and by 2023, that had more than halved to 2.2. 

During the same period, the global population rose by around 150 percent from 3.2 billion to 8.1 billion. 

The fact that populations kept (and keep) growing despite falling global fertility is tied to longer life expectancy and lower childhood mortality. 

The UN expects global fertility to reach the minimum replacement level of 2.1 by the middle of the century while global population is expected to start falling towards the end of it.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 11:05

9 Signs That Conditions Are Ripe For A Major Economic Crisis In The US

Zero Hedge -

9 Signs That Conditions Are Ripe For A Major Economic Crisis In The US

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

For years, our economy and our financial markets have been artificially propped up.  Since 2008, politicians in Washington have added about 26 trillion dollars to the national debt, and bureaucrats at the Fed have pumped trillions of freshly created dollars into the financial system.  If we could go back and undo just those two things, we would be living an economic horror show right now.  Piling up the largest mountain of debt in the history of the world has enabled us to live way, way, way beyond our means.  On a personal level, if you borrowed and spent millions of dollars that you did not have, you would also be able to live a lifestyle that you do not deserve.  Debt is extremely seductive, because it is a way to make the present a lot more pleasant.  But there is always a price to be paid in the end.

Here in 2025, government spending is being slashed in many areas, the Federal Reserve is choosing not to step in even though turmoil has erupted on Wall Street, consumer confidence is falling dramatically, home sales are collapsing, mass layoffs are happening all over the nation, and now a global trade war has begun.

At this stage, it should be apparent to everyone that we are headed for big trouble.  The following are 9 signs that conditions are ripe for a major economic crisis in the United States…

#1 During the first three months of this year, which was before the trade war erupted, U.S. GDP was contracting at a 0.3 percent annual rate

U.S. economic growth slowed sharply in the first quarter of 2025 as businesses rushed to stockpile goods ahead of President Trump’s sweeping tariff policies.

The nation’s gross domestic product — the total value of products and services — shrank at a 0.3% annual rate, down from growth of 2.4% in the final three months of 2024, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday in its initial GDP estimate. It’s the worst quarterly performance for the U.S. economy since early 2022, when the economy was in recovery after cratering during the COVID pandemic.

The U.S. economy was forecast to show 0.8% growth in the first three months of 2025, according to the average estimate of economists polled by FactSet.

#2 Consumer confidence is absolutely plummeting

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86 on the month, down 7.9 points from its prior reading and below the Dow Jones estimate for 87.7. It was the lowest reading in nearly five years.

However, the view of conditions further out deteriorated even more.

The board’s expectations index, which measures how respondents look at the next six months, tumbled to 54.4, a decline of 12.5 points and the lowest reading since October 2011. Board officials said the reading is consistent with a recession.

#3 Major layoffs are being announced on an almost daily basis.  For example, UPS just announced that it will be laying off approximately 20,000 workers

The United Parcel Service (UPS) is expected to reduce its workforce by roughly 20,000 during 2025, citing “new or increased tariffs” and “changes in general economic conditions in the U.S. or internationally” for the cuts.

UPS announced the layoffs April 29 in its first quarter earnings report, in which the parcel delivery service said it made consolidated revenues of $21.5 billion, compared to $21.7 billion around the same time a year ago. The shipping company also said it would be closing roughly 164 facilities by the end of the year.

#4 According to the executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, incoming cargo volume will be down more than 35 percent next week compared to a year ago…

Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” that he expects incoming cargo volume to slide by more than a third next week compared with the same period in 2024.

“According to our own port optimizer, which measures the loadings in Asia, we’ll be down just a little bit over 35% next week compared to last year. And it’s a precipitous drop in volume with a number of major American retailers stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs,” Seroka said.

#5 It is being reported that container bookings from China to the United States have fallen “by as much as 60%”

By another estimate, container bookings from China to the U.S. are down by as much as 60%, according to Flexport, a supply chain management company. Bookings from other Asia ports, such as Vietnam and Thailand, are up 5% to 10% as some exporters look to expand production outside of China to avoid steep tariffs.

The decline in bookings from China comes during what is usually a busy period for imports to the U.S.

“We would normally see an increase in bookings across the board, because this is the beginning of the shipping year,” said Nathan Strang, director of ocean freight at Flexport. “It’s when back-to-school items and Halloween items start to come in.”

#6 Apollo Global Management is warning that mass layoffs in the trucking industry are imminent

The trucking industry, critical to U.S. logistics, faces significant challenges as tariffs disrupt trade, particularly with China. A sharp decline in container ship voyages from China is expected to reduce freight volumes, thereby lowering demand for trucking services. Imports account for an estimated 20% of U.S. trucking volumes, so a decline in imports will have a significant impact on the industry. With fewer goods to transport, carriers will face reduced workloads and underutilized fleets, forcing them to cut labor costs.

Apollo predicts that domestic freight activity will sharply slow by mid-May, with mass layoffs likely to follow as firms strive to maintain financial stability. The slowdown in trucking will put a lot of pressure on trucking companies that have been dealing with the Great Freight Recession, one of the longest and deepest downturns in history.

#7 One recent study found that a whopping 74 percent of all U.S. workers are currently living paycheck to paycheck

Financial insecurity compounds these workplace stresses, with nearly three-quarters (74%) of workers living paycheck to paycheck.

#8 Student loan delinquencies in the U.S. have soared into unprecedented territory

But even with this factored in, Nelnet’s data shows a spike in delinquencies compared with before the pandemic. A staggering 15 percent of borrowers are more than 90 days delinquent, which is reported to credit bureaus.

If this wave of delinquencies continues, the Education Department has warned that 10 million borrowers — nearly a quarter of the total — could be in default within a few months.

#9 Almost a quarter of all U.S. adults are currently facing “unmanageable” debt levels

In honor of Financial Literacy Month, Experian offers a closer look at the financial hurdles many are facing – and how some are overcoming them.

Nearly 1 in 4 U.S. adults currently have “unmanageable” debt, as of April 1, according to a survey of 1,000 respondents. Unmanageable debt is defined as when an individual is forced to choose between debt payments and basic necessities.

We have been living in an economic fantasy world.

But now the bubble is starting to burst and people are freaking out.

The only way to return the economy to the level that we have become accustomed to would be to do the same foolish things that our leaders have been doing for decades.

If our politicians in Washington borrow and spend trillions of additional dollars that we do not have, and if the Federal Reserve feverishly pumps even more fresh money into the financial system, that would buy us a little more time.

But it would also make our long-term problems even worse.

No matter how hard we try, economic reality is going to catch up with us eventually.

And when that finally happens, we are going to witness a societal meltdown that is unlike anything we have ever seen before.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “10 Prophetic Events That Are Coming Next” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 10:30

European Union To Ban Anonymous Crypto & Privacy Tokens By 2027

Zero Hedge -

European Union To Ban Anonymous Crypto & Privacy Tokens By 2027

Authored by Zoltan Vardai via CoinTelegraph.com,

The European Union is set to impose sweeping Anti-Money Laundering (AML) rules that will ban privacy-preserving tokens and anonymous cryptocurrency accounts from 2027.

Under the new Anti-Money Laundering Regulation (AMLR), credit institutions, financial institutions and crypto asset service providers (CASPs) will be prohibited from maintaining anonymous accounts or handling privacy-preserving cryptocurrencies, such as Monero and Zcash.

“Article 79 of the AMLR establishes strict prohibitions on anonymous accounts [...]. Credit institutions, financial institutions, and crypto-asset service providers are prohibited from maintaining anonymous accounts,” according to the AML Handbook, published by European Crypto Initiative (EUCI).

The AML Handbook. Source: EUCI

The regulation is part of a broader AML framework that includes bank and payment accounts, passbooks and safe-deposit boxes, “crypto-asset accounts allowing anonymisation of transactions,” and “accounts using anonymity-enhancing coins.”

“The regulations (the AMLR, AMLD and AMLAR) are final, and what remains is the ‘fine print’ — aka the interpretation of some of the requirements through the so-called implementing and delegated acts,” according to Vyara Savova, senior policy lead at the EUCI.

She added that much of the implementation will come through so-called implementing and delegated acts, which are mostly handled by the European Banking Authority:

“This means that the EUCI is still actively working on these level two acts by providing feedback to the public consultations, as some of the implementation details are yet to be finalized.”

“However, the broader framework is final, so centralized crypto projects (CASPs under MiCA) need to keep it in mind when determining their internal processes and policies,” Savova said.

EU to increase oversight of crypto service providers

Under the new regulatory framework, CASPs operating in at least six member states will be under direct AML supervision.

In the initial stage, AMLA plans to select 40 entities, with at least one entity per member state, according to EUCI’s AML Handbook. The selection process is set to start on July 1, 2027.

AMLA will use “materiality thresholds” to ensure that only firms with “substantial operations presence in multiple jurisdictions are considered for direct supervision.”

The thresholds include a “minimum of 20,000 customers residing in the host member state,” or a total transaction volume of over 50 million euros ($56 million).

Other notable measures include mandatory customer due diligence on transactions above 1,000 euros ($1,100).

These updates come as the EU ramps up its regulatory oversight of the crypto industry, building on previous measures such as the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA).

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 09:20

Global Food Prices Climb Toward Arab Spring-Era Highs Amid Trade War Turmoil

Zero Hedge -

Global Food Prices Climb Toward Arab Spring-Era Highs Amid Trade War Turmoil

Global food prices surged to a two-year high in April, driven by U.S. tariff policy uncertainty that has injected turmoil across markets. The latest spike brings prices dangerously close to levels that helped fuel the Arab Spring uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa between 2010 and 2012.

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported on Friday that its Food Price Index—which tracks monthly changes in international prices of globally traded food commodities—averaged 128.3 points in April, up 1% from March and 7.6% from the same month last year.

The Food Price Index (FFPI) subcomponents, including cereals, meat, and dairy, mainly were up, while vegetable oils and sugar were down. 

Here's a breakdown of how FFPI's subcomponents performed in April:

  • Cereals: Up 1.2% from March; wheat rose on tighter Russian exports, rice up on demand for fragrant varieties, maize higher due to low U.S. stocks.

  • Meat: Up 3.2%; pig meat led gains, bovine prices firmed in Australia and Brazil on strong demand and limited supply.

  • Dairy: Up 2.4%; butter hit an all-time high due to declining inventories in Europe, dairy index now 22.9% higher year-over-year.

  • Vegetable Oils: Down 2.3%; palm oil fell with rising Southeast Asian output, soy and rapeseed oil up on strong demand, sunflower oil steady.

  • Sugar: Down 3.5%; decline driven by fears of weakened demand from beverage and food sectors amid uncertain global economic outlook.

At 128.3, the FAO said FFPI moved to a two-year high on "currency fluctuations influencing price movements in world markets, while tariff policy adjustments raised market uncertainty." 

Those prices are nearing 2010-12 Arab Spring levels...

Bloomberg quoted Monika Tothova, an economist at the FAO, as saying that short-term demand for some ag products has been visible amid the tariff war between President Trump and China.

The lingering question is whether the FFPI will continue rising amid tariff uncertainty—or if potential signaling around new trade talks between the U.S. and China suggests this price surge may be temporary. Still concerning is the level at which prices linger and how higher food prices can trigger social destabilization in weak countries.

Tyler Durden Sat, 05/03/2025 - 08:45

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