The Middle East: The Decisive Battleground Of WW3
Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,
It’s important to recognize that world orders are nothing new.
World orders have long been the frameworks through which major global powers set the rules of the game. They define the structure of international political relations.
Thinking in terms of world orders requires zooming out entirely—taking the geopolitical view from 40,000 feet.
On a smaller scale, it’s similar to how the most powerful criminal organizations in a city—such as mafias and street gangs—form agreements to divide their activities and territories among themselves.
Eventually, though, these arrangements always break down, leading to violent power struggles until a new agreement is reached, reflecting the shifting balance of power.
A similar dynamic is at play with the most powerful countries, world orders, and world wars.
You can think of world orders as epochs—distinct historical periods marked by evolving global power structures.
Peace of Westphalia (1648 to 1803): This agreement ended the Thirty Years’ War and established a framework for European international relations for over two centuries by maintaining a balance of power among major European states. It involved the Holy Roman Empire, Spain, France, Sweden, the Dutch Republic, and various German territories. This world order persisted until the Napoleonic Wars disrupted the balance, necessitating a new international arrangement.
Congress of Vienna (1814 to 1914): The military defeat of Napoleon I led to this world order, which cemented Britain as the dominant global power. The Congress of Vienna set the foundation for European politics until the onset of World War 1 in 1914.
Treaty of Versailles (1919 to 1939): The victors of World War 1 established this world order, introducing institutions like the League of Nations. However, it collapsed when Germany, Italy, and Japan sought to overturn it and impose their own world order during World War 2.
The Current US-Led World Order (1945 to Today): The victors of World War 2 created the current world order with the US as its leader. This system includes institutions like the United Nations, the World Bank, and the International Monetary Fund—all headquartered in the US. This world order has largely been unipolar, with the US exerting significant influence over international policies and decision-making.
World War 3
While many don’t realize it, World War 3 is already underway.
Let me explain…
Total war between the world’s largest powers that reshuffled the international order defined the previous world wars.
However, with the advent of nuclear weapons, total war between the largest powers today—Russia, China, and the US—means a nuclear Armageddon where there are no winners and only losers.
That could still happen despite nobody wanting it, but it’s not the most likely outcome.
World War 3 is unlikely to be a total war between the world’s largest powers, like the previous world wars.
Instead, the conflict is playing out on different levels—proxy wars, economic wars, financial wars, cyber wars, biological warfare, deniable sabotage, and information warfare.
In that sense, World War 3 is already well underway, though most fail to recognize it.
Russia, China, and their allies are seeking to reshape the US-led world order that has been in place since the end of World War 2.
While they resent US dominance, both Russia and China hold a position—albeit a subordinate one—within the current system. They have permanent seats on the UN Security Council and are members of key international institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and WTO.
Unlike Germany and Japan in World War 2, Russia and China do not appear intent on completely overturning the current world order. Doing so could invite nuclear Armageddon. Instead, they aim to shift the balance away from US dominance to a multipolar world where they wield greater influence.
The conflict is playing out just below the threshold of direct military conflict. Nevertheless, it is a high-stakes struggle among the world’s major powers to determine the future world order, just as in previous world wars.
This is World War 3. It’s happening right now and unfolding rapidly.
In fact, World War 3 has been ongoing for over a decade.
While WW3 lacks an official starting date, two pivotal events in 2013 and 2014 signaled the beginning of this global struggle between Russia, China, and the US to reshape the world order.
The first was the rise of Xi Jinping in March 2013. It quickly became evident that China was no longer content with being a junior member of the US-led system. Instead, Beijing sought a role commensurate with its power—at minimum, equal to the US, if not the world’s dominant force.
The second was the US-backed coup in Kiev in February 2014, which led to the violent overthrow of Ukraine’s pro-Russian government and its replacement by a pro-US administration.
Ukraine is Russia’s most vital neighbor—both culturally and strategically. Slavic nations, including Russia, trace their heritage to the Kievan Rus’, a federation of tribes centered in present-day Ukraine that existed from the late 800s to the early 1200s.
Ukraine is also of immense geopolitical value. For years, US strategists have pursued the idea of integrating Ukraine into NATO, a move that would significantly weaken Russia’s military position and further isolate Moscow—an appealing prospect for those favoring a unipolar world.
After the 2014 coup, Moscow became convinced that the US was determined to bring Russia under its control. In response, Russia saw no choice but to push back—primarily by aligning with China and other nations to shift the world order from unipolar to multipolar.
I believe these two events marked the beginning of a global struggle among the most powerful nations to reshape the international order—World War 3.
Since then, the conflict has only escalated and may soon reach a tipping point that changes everything.
The graphic below (click to enlarge) maps out the timeline of recent world orders and world wars, offering a clearer perspective on their evolution—and where we may be headed next.
The US-led world order has undergone several distinct phases since the end of World War 2.
From 1945 to 1991, it was defined by the Cold War—a global struggle between the US and the Soviet Union.
After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the post-WW2 world order experienced a massive shift, with the US emerging as the undisputed global superpower. This era, often called the “unipolar moment,” lasted from 1991 until Trump’s inauguration in 2025.
Though it endured for 34 years, the notion that the US could maintain a unipolar world order indefinitely was never realistic.
President Trump seems to recognize that maintaining it is not just unrealistic but unsustainable. He appears to have decided that it is in the US’s best interest to transition to a multipolar reality on its own terms rather than be forced into it by a chaotic collapse.
We are now in a volatile adjustment period as the unipolar world order gives way to a multipolar one.
Does that mean World War 3 is over?
I don’t think so. But it does mean we have entered a new phase of it.
There is still much to be determined—most crucially, the boundaries of the US, Russia, and China’s spheres of influence in this emerging multipolar world.
With the war in Ukraine all but lost and the prospect of victory in Taiwan shrinking by the day, the US government appears to have accepted that the complete subjugation of Russia and China under its unipolar dominance is no longer an achievable goal.
The goalposts of World War 3 have shifted.
Rather than total victory and preserving the unipolar world order, the US is now focused on maximizing its power within the new multipolar landscape—while limiting the influence of its most formidable rivals: Russia and China.
While the US seems to be moving away from the unipolar model and begrudgingly acknowledging the existence of rival powers (Russia and China), it still seeks to be the dominant force in a multipolar world.
The boundaries of the US, Russia, and China’s spheres of influence in this emerging multipolar world have yet to be defined, and the situation remains volatile and dangerous. Whether Trump can successfully guide the US—and the world—through this transition without descending into greater conflict remains an open question.
On a smaller scale, this mirrors how powerful criminal organizations—such as mafias and street gangs—operate within a city. Ideally, a gang or mafia would eliminate all rivals. However, when certain rivals prove too strong to destroy, the conflict shifts toward defining boundaries until a formal arrangement is reached that divides territories.
The same dynamic is now unfolding on a global scale between the US, Russia, and China as World War 3 plays out.
Each side is maneuvering to expand its power and influence until a new arrangement is reached that defines the balance of the multipolar world.
Determining the precise boundaries of various spheres of influence in a multipolar world—and formalizing them into an agreement—will be a complex and prolonged process. It won’t happen overnight.
Until a formal agreement is reached among the world’s major powers—much like the Congress of Vienna after the Napoleonic Wars, the Treaty of Versailles following World War 1, and the Yalta Conference at the close of World War 2—World War 3 will continue.
The Middle East: The Decisive Battleground of WW3
The Middle East presents one of the greatest uncertainties in the emerging multipolar world. I believe the region will be pivotal.
If the US and its allies prevail there, it could open the door to containing Russian and Chinese influence within a multipolar world.
But if Russia and China gain the upper hand in this strategic region, the US will suffer a major geopolitical downgrade, much like the British Empire after World Wars 1 and 2.
The region is further complicated by the presence of powerful regional players like Turkey, nuclear-armed Israel, and Iran, all of whom have their own interests.
The US, Russia, and China will not only need to define their boundaries in the Middle East, but so will these regional actors. There’s no sign of a resolution anytime soon. The region remains volatile, and the potential for a regional conflict escalating into a global confrontation remains a real possibility.
A key question is Iran’s role in the multipolar world order. If the Middle East is pivotal to the global balance of power in a multipolar world, then Iran is pivotal to the balance of power within the Middle East.
Control of Iran would give the US even greater leverage over the Middle East’s hydrocarbon resources. A US-aligned government in Tehran could help block China’s Belt and Road Initiative from pushing further west and potentially cut off 14% of China’s oil imports. It would also hinder Russian trade through the Caspian Sea and serve as a launchpad to destabilize Russia from its southern flank.
In short, bringing Iran under US influence would open the door to further undermining both Russia and China. For them, Iran is strategic depth.
Russia and China cannot afford to let Iran fall—and the US and Israel cannot afford to let it stand. The question is: who will prevail?
It’s doubtful that the US and its allies can win the war in Ukraine against Russia or a potential war over Taiwan against China. Their best shot at rolling back Russian and Chinese influence in a multipolar world is through striking Iran.
That’s why I believe the US and its allies will make their last stand to preserve global preeminence by attempting to overthrow Iran’s government—likely through full-scale war. Whether they’ll succeed is another question entirely.
As the Middle East becomes the decisive battleground in the struggle to shape the new world order, the consequences are not just geopolitical—they are deeply personal. The outcome of this conflict could trigger the most dangerous economic crisis in a hundred years, one that threatens your financial stability, personal freedom, and way of life.
To help you navigate what’s coming, I’ve prepared an urgent Special Report: “The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… and the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now.” It explains the global forces at play, what they mean for you, and the critical steps you can take today to prepare. Click here to access the report and read it now. History is moving fast. Don’t get left behind.
Tyler Durden
Thu, 08/21/2025 - 21:45
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