Supreme Court Will Decide Whether Drug Users Can Possess Guns

The Supreme Court on Monday agreed to consider whether people who use illegal drugs should also be allowed to possess a firearm.

The U.S. Supreme Court in Washington on Sept. 29, 2025. Madalina Kilroy/The Epoch Times

The justices granted the petition in the United States v. Hemani without comment in an unsigned order, with no justices dissenting. The case involves Ali Danial Hemani - a dual citizen of the United Sates and Pakistan, according to the government's petition which describes him as "a drug dealer who uses illegal drugs." 

The FBI obtained a search warrant to raid his home, where they found a Glock 9mm pistol, 60 grams of marijuana, and 4.7 grams of cocaine. 

As the case worked its way through the system, the US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit ruled that the Second Amendment prevents Congress from restricting one's right to possess firearms even if they're habitual users of illegal drugs.

"The court’s decision invalidates an important federal statute in the vast majority of its applications and exacerbates a multi-sided circuit conflict. This Court should grant the petition for a writ of certiorari and reverse," reads the petition which was submitted at the urging of the Trump administration. 

"This is the archetypal case for this Court’s review," wrote Solicitor General D. John Sauer in court filings.

Currently federal law prohibits anyone "who is an unlawful user of or addicted to any controlled substance" from possessing a firearm - with violations carrying up to 10 years in prison. 

In a recent opinion, Obama-appointee US Circuit Judge Stephen Higginson noted that judges are adjudicating such cases "daily across the country." 

A jury convicted Hunter Biden on the charge last year for possessing a Colt Cobra revolver in 2018 while being addicted to crack cocaine. He had argued it violated the Second Amendment until his father, then-President Biden, pardoned him. -The Hill

Whatever the Supreme Court decides has the potential to radically upend federal and state measures that the DOJ says have been passed in more than 30 states. 

Meanwhile, lower court judges have wrestled over the federal crime's constitutionality in the wake of the Supreme Court's 2022 expansion of gun rights, which requires that gun control measures be consistent with the nation's historical tradition of firearm regulation. 

In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen (2022), the Supreme Court struck down New York’s strict concealed-carry licensing law and established a new test for evaluating gun regulations. The Court ruled that modern firearm restrictions are constitutional only if they are consistent with the nation’s historical tradition of firearm regulation, effectively requiring judges to compare today’s laws to those in place during the founding era.

Since that landmark decision, lower court judges have been split on the federal crime’s constitutionality in the wake of this expanded interpretation of the Second Amendment. Some courts have upheld the statute, reasoning that longstanding prohibitions on firearm possession by certain groups - such as felons or individuals under restraining orders - fit within the nation’s historical framework of regulating dangerous persons. Others, however, have struck it down in specific contexts, finding insufficient historical analogues to justify modern restrictions.

Last year, the court ruled that a neighboring provision criminalizing gun possession for people under domestic violence restraining orders was valid. 

Meanwhile, the Supremes will also decide the constitutionality of Hawaii's law banning concealed carry on private property without the owner's express permission. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 11:05

CBO responds to questions regarding the orphan drug exemption under Public Law 119-25, the 2025 reconciliation act.

Chipmaker Nexperia's China Arm Tells Staff To Ignore Dutch HQ, Deepening Semiconductor Split

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times,

China’s arm of chipmaker Nexperia has instructed employees to disregard directives from its Dutch headquarters, marking an escalation in a spiraling cross-border confrontation over control of the company that has already raised alarm bells across the global automotive and electronics supply chain.

In an internal memo published on Oct. 19 on its official WeChat account over the weekend, Nexperia China told staff that they are to follow orders only from the domestic management team and have the “right to refuse execution” of any external instructions—even if delivered through official corporate communications platforms such as Outlook or Microsoft Teams—unless approved by a China-based legal representative.

The notice, signed by multiple Chinese subsidiaries, said that Nexperia’s China operations are legally independent under Chinese corporate law and will continue to operate “as a Chinese enterprise,” with full decision-making authority remaining inside China. It also stated that all salaries, bonuses, and benefits would be paid exclusively by Nexperia China, not by the Netherlands-based parent.

The memo followed an extraordinary intervention by the Dutch government, which earlier this month imposed direct supervision over Nexperia’s global management, citing “serious governance shortcomings” and fears that critical chipmaking capabilities could be transferred to Chinese ownership. The move was made under the rarely used Cold War-era Goods Availability Act, marking the first such action in Dutch industrial history.

As part of the move, Dutch authorities suspended Nexperia CEO Zhang Xuezheng—founder of Wingtech Technology, the China-based company that owns Nexperia—and installed an interim European leadership. The decision drew immediate condemnation from Beijing and Wingtech, which accused The Hague of “discriminatory treatment” and “excessive intervention based on geopolitical bias.”

At the same time, China’s Ministry of Commerce blocked shipments of Nexperia’s finished goods and sub-assemblies from Chinese factories, effectively halting exports to Europe. With up to 80 percent of Nexperia’s final packaging and assembly located in mainland China, the block has deepened a split in corporate command.

Nexperia Netherlands condemned the Chinese memo in a statement to several media outlets, accusing its ousted CEO of spreading “falsehoods” that the Dutch headquarters had abandoned its China business or ceded control.

“We regret that certain individuals ... see the need to spread these falsehoods, and remain hopeful to come to a solution that allows Nexperia to continue serving its customers and partners, and one that brings stability for its employees,” the company stated.

The Epoch Times reached out to Nexperia for comment and additional details of its response to the memo from the Chinese arm, but did not receive a response by publication time.

Industry groups across Europe and the United States have warned that the dispute could trigger supply chain shockwaves within weeks. Nexperia produces mature-node semiconductors used across most modern vehicles—components that, although not advanced, are manufactured in the tens of millions.

“Without these chips, European automotive suppliers cannot build the parts and components needed to supply vehicle manufacturers,” the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association said in an Oct. 16 note.

In Washington, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation issued a similar alert.

“If the shipment of automotive chips doesn’t resume–quickly–it’s going to disrupt auto production in the U.S. and many other countries and have a spillover effect in other industries,” said the group’s CEO, John Bozzella. “It’s that significant.”

Volkswagen and BMW have confirmed they are conducting contingency planning. While neither has yet paused assembly lines, both said current chip inventories would only cover a limited window.

Dutch Economy Minister Vincent Karremans is expected to meet his Chinese counterpart and the European Commission in the coming days to discuss the dispute.

“Europe would have been 100 percent dependent for these sort of chips, in terms of knowledge, expertise and capacity, on foreign countries,” Karremans said in an interview with Dutch television show Buitenhof on Oct. 19, referring to the imperative behind the Dutch government’s decision to seize control of Nexperia.

The dispute also reflects a wider battle over chips between China and the West. The United States has blacklisted Nexperia’s parent company, Wingtech, and pushed allies such as the Netherlands to tighten export controls, while Beijing has responded with its own curbs—turning semiconductor companies into geopolitical battlegrounds.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 10:50

Was The CIA Misleading Witkoff & Kushner On Key Intel About Hamas During Critical Phase Of Peace-Talks

Authored by 'sundance' via The Last Refuge,

A fascinating hour-long interview with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as they outline the backstory to the Israel-Hamas peace agreement in Gaza.

During a segment (prompted below) Witkoff and Kushner are outlining the step-by-step process as they engaged the leaders of Qatar, Turkey and Egypt. 

Witkoff reveals how the CIA was briefing them both, multiple times a day, and the briefing itself was exactly the opposite of what Emir of Qatar and Presidents of Turkey and Egypt were telling them. 

The CIA intelligence was the exact opposite of reality.  

WATCH:

What they are describing is EXACTLY why we outlined how ‘outside govt’ emissaries were/are vitally necessary to work around the control agenda of the U.S. Intelligence Community. 

This small example is stunning in magnitude when considered around the importance of the moment.

On a positive note, with Witkoff making this stunning public statement, we can now add a major datapoint to President Trump’s reference of NOT TRUSTING the CIA. 

Combined with the previous assertions of Marco Rubio and Tulsi Gabbard on essentially the same level of outlook, this example of the CIA getting it wrong (misleading the administration) has long-range ramifications beyond the Hamas example.

With this backdrop for reference, surely now we can have an optimistic sense that President Trump doesn’t trust the CIA intelligence on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

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Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 10:20

Don Lemon Urges 'Black And Brown' Americans To Arm Themselves Against ICE

Authored by Luis Cornelio via HeadlineUSA,

Disgraced former CNN host Don Lemon urged “black” and “brown” Americans on Wednesday to take up arms, warning they could be swept up in President Donald Trump’s ICE operations. 

Don Lemon / IMAGE: CNN via YouTube

He made the incendiary claim during a podcast interview with Wajahat Ali, citing the small number of cases involving U.S. citizens being briefly detained by ICE in cities like Chicago. 

“I just want to be very clear here. I am not condoning or promoting violence,” Lemon began, before invoking the Second Amendment. “Here’s what I’m saying to black and brown people, to Mexican people, to people who are here legally and who can go and buy a gun legally and have a license to carry legally: Go do it! Why not? Go do it! It is your Second Amendment right.” 

Don Lemon instructs illegal aliens "to go out and get a gun because when you have people knocking on your door and taking you away, isn't that what the second amendment was written for?"

The left is trying to get ICE agents killed.pic.twitter.com/B1lMqM2CqS

— CJ Pearson (@thecjpearson) October 16, 2025

Lemon then urged “black households,” “Indian Americans,” “Mexican Americans,” and, as he put it, “whatever you are,” to purchase firearms legally, claiming the show of force could discourage the Trump administration from conducting immigration raids. 

“Get a license to carry legally,” he said. “Because when you have people knocking on your door and taking you away without due process as a citizen, isn’t that what the Second Amendment was written for?” 

He continued, “Go back and read what the Second Amendment says. And perhaps it will knock some sense … in the heads of these people who are saying: ‘Well, it’s all great. I don’t believe they’re doing it without due process. They’re asking people for papers. They’re not really beating people up. These people are doing things that are illegal.’”  

Lemon’s comments come amid the legacy media’s fixation on rare cases of American citizens briefly detained during ICE raids, most of which are quickly clarified or resolved. 

White House border czar Tom Homan has repeatedly clarified that ICE conducts only targeted operations focused on individuals with existing deportation orders. However, illegal aliens without such orders, as well as citizens lacking proper identification, may be temporarily detained if swept up during these raids. 

When reached by email, Lemon could not provide evidence of any widespread targeting of U.S. citizens by ICE by the time of publication. 

Watch Lemon’s full remarks below:

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 09:00

Futures Rise As Trade, Credit Fears Fade Ahead Of Earnings Deluge

US equity futures are higher led by small caps, with sentiment TACOed for a second consecutive weekend thanks to Trump’s comments that the US will “be fine” with China ahead of trade talks between the two sides. It’s going to be a busy week for earnings, with Tesla, Netflix and General Motors among companies reporting. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are up 0.3%, with Nasdaq futures up 0.4%. Pre-mkt, Mag7 names are all higher; Tesla climbed in pre-market trading ahead of its report Wednesday, the first from the Magnificent Seven cohort of big-tech companies. There are also notable moves higher in Fins as credit concerns subside. Treasuries, which rallied last week amid trade-war and credit quality jitters, are steady today around 4.00% on the 10Y. The yield curve is flatter with 2Y and 5Y yield higher, while 10Y yields are mostly unchanged at 4.00%. Ahead of a resumption in US/China talks this week in Malaysia, Trump said rare earths, fentanyl and soybeans are the US’s top issues with China, and told Fox News that his threatened 100% tariff on Chinese goods was “not sustainable,” though “it could stand." Concerns about more “cockroaches” in credit markets also ease ahead of many small regional banks reporting this week. The USD is higher. Commodities are also higher across all 3 complexes, yet crude is weaker. Almost 20% of SPX reports this week. The US economic calendar is empty today. September’s delayed CPI print will be released Friday. Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the Oct. 29 Fed policy decision began Saturday

In premarket trading, Magnificent Seven stocks are all higher (Amazon +0.1%, Tesla +1%, Apple +1.4%, Meta +0.4%, Nvidia +0.2%, Microsoft flat, Alphabet +0.2%).

• Celcuity (CELC) is up 46% after the biotechnology company said it has successfully recruited enough breast-cancer patients with the PIK3CA mutation to complete Phase 3 clinical trials of a novel treatment that incorporates the drug gedatolisib.
• Cooper Cos. (COO) shares climb 4% after the Wall Street Journal reported that activist investor Jana Partners has built a stake in the medical device company and plans to push for strategic alternatives.
• Exelixis (EXEL) drops 11% after the drugmaker gave data from two separate late-stage cancer trials.
• Hologic Inc. (HOLX) climbs 5% as Blackstone Inc. and TPG Inc. are in advanced negotiations to acquire the company in a deal that could value the medical device maker at more than $17 billion including debt. A transaction could be announced in the coming days, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Olema Pharmaceuticals (OLMA) tumbles 28% after the drug developer gave data from an early-mid stage breast cancer trial, that Oppenheimer says is overshadowed by disappointing results from peer developer, Roche.
• Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) rises 15% after US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright made an X post Friday night supporting the company’s effort to restart one of its California oil projects that is awaiting state approval.

In corporate news, Amazon Web Services suffered a widespread disruption, affecting services for companies including Perplexity, Coinbase and Robinhood. Sales of Apple’s latest generation of iPhones are off to a faster start than usual, with its most basic model surging in popularity. Kering agreed to sell its beauty division to L’Oreal in a €4 billion deal.

Amid fears about more “cockroaches” in credit markets, Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong said that “the problem isn’t yet flashing red.” But nerves remain. Deutsche Bank strategists noted that overall equity positioning tumbled last week in the biggest weekly cut since the April selloff, and sentiment fell to net bearish for the first time in four weeks, which is odd because Goldman saw the reverse: the first positive sentiment print since February.

After recent stock wobble, Goldman's US equity sentiment indicator turns positive for the first time since February. pic.twitter.com/379r1u1zzU

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 20, 2025

Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said that there needs to be follow through on a US-China deal and stability in EPS revisions to clear the risk of a further correction in stocks.

“The market trend is rather positive with this new lull on the trade war front,” said Andrea Tueni, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque France. “The earnings so far have been rather good and the AI frenzy has helped a comeback from the tech sector.”

The latest bout of volatility has spared a sector rotation in the US and Europe, with investors taking profit in crowded sector while defensive plays are back in favor. The Relative Rotation function on the terminal shows momentum has faded for tech in the US, while optimism has returned to health care.

Elsewhere, China’s economy grew at the weakest pace in a year in the third quarter as a boost from booming exports was undermined by weak spending and investment. The 4.8% expansion was still a touch better than economists expected. The data came just ahead of a four-day meeting of China’s political leaders, with markets watching for fresh measures to extend the country’s strongest equity rally in eight years and shore up the yuan.

The new tariff threats “were ultimately a case of ‘the boy who cried wolf,’ and the more it occurs, the less people take it seriously,” said Michael Field, an analyst at Morningstar Investment Service. “Investors took a little bit off the table and now maybe they’re getting a bit more optimistic as we head into earning season.”

Back home, as the government shutdown entered its 20th day, a keenly-awaited CPI reading will finally be released on Friday. Bloomberg Economics expects core consumer price inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, to slow to 0.23% in September from 0.35% the prior month, taking the annual measure down to 3.0% from 3.1%. That should give the Fed a green light to cut rates next week.

European stocks reboudned, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.6%, paring Friday’s decline as signs of easing global trade frictions helped boost broader risk sentiment. Industrial,bank and energy stocks are leading gains while autos provide a drag. The CAC 40 underperforms as a sharp drop in BNP Paribas shares weighs on the index.  Here are the biggest movers Monday

• European defense stocks are outperforming on Monday, as tensions rise in the Middle East and thanks to some positive newsflow
• Kering shares rise as much as 5.5%, to the highest since July 2024, after the Gucci owner agreed to sell its beauty division to L’Oreal SA as part of a long-term strategic alliance in a $4.7 billion deal
• Holcim shares gain as much as 2.1% after the Swiss building materials company agreed to acquire European walling systems firm Xella
• Tomra gains as much as 5.2%, the most since August 7, after brokers upgraded their views on the Norwegian recycling equipment company to buy, including ABG Sundal Collier and Nordea, while Kepler Cheuvreux reiterated its buy rating
• Siltronic shares jump as much as 11% after the manufacturer of silicon wafers was upgraded at Jefferies, which cited scope for a re-rating ahead of better conditions next year
• Mota-Engil, Portugal’s biggest builder, rises as much as 3.2% in Lisbon after winning a contract worth about €820 million to build a stretch of railway in Mexico
• BNP Paribas fell as much as 8.8%, the steepest decline since early April after losing a court case that analysts said could result in a costly settlement
• B&M European Value Retail shares drop as much as 20% to hit an all-time low, after the retailer cut its guidance less than two weeks after issuing a profit warning, while announcing Chief Financial Officer Mike Schmidt is stepping down
• Forvia shares fall as much as 8%, the most since April, after the automotive technology company said Stellantis’s decision to temporarily halt operations at several plants in Europe will cost it “some tens of millions of euros” in sales this year
• GlobalData shares drop as much as 11% to the lowest since 2019 after the data analytics firm cut its 2H adj. Ebitda margin forecast and said that acquired businesses are being integrated more slowly than expected

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced across the board, lifted by hopes for policy support from a key political meeting this week in China and easing trade tensions. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 1.9% to close at a record, propelled by shares of TSMC and Tencent. Japan’s benchmarks were among the region’s best performers on expectations that stimulus advocate Sanae Takaichi will become the country’s first female prime minister. Stocks in Hong Kong and China also rallied as the so-called Fourth Plenum, a four-day gathering that helps shape China’s long-term policy, kicked off in Beijing. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.5%, the most since August, after officials affirmed the economy is on track to reach this year’s expansion target. The CSI 300 Index added 0.5%, even as data showed the weakest growth pace in a year.  There’s “optimism building around possible new measures to support domestic consumption and stabilize the property sector,” Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X Management, said, referring to the plenum.  Singapore and Malaysia markets were closed for a holiday. Vietnamese stocks plunged by the most in six months amid concerns over corporate bond issuance violations. 

In Fx, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was flat, pausing after its slide to its lowest in nearly two weeks late last week
USD/JPY slipped 0.1% to the day’s low of 150.27, before reversing; the yen clawed back initial losses as an agreement between the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party quells some political uncertainty. The yen was also bolstered by hawkish comments from a BOJ policymaker. “The key focus is whether they maintain a consistently hawkish stance,” and whether they’ll signal a strong intention to hike again in December, said Marito Ueda, general manager of market research department at SBI Liquidity Market, referring to the BOJ. The kiwi and Swedish krona outperform slightly among the G-10 currencies.

In rates, treasuries are little changed on the day, with yields across the curve within a basis point of Friday’s closing levels. US 10-year is near 4.01%; UK counterpart outperforms and Germany’s lags, each by around 1bp; French 10-year is about 2bp cheaper on the day. In Europe, French bonds underperformed after S&P Global Ratings downgraded the nation’s sovereign credit score in an unscheduled move late Friday, widening the 10-year yield spread with Germany to around 79 basis points after S&P downgraded France. Monday session has no major scheduled events. Treasury auctions later this week include 20-year bond reopening Wednesday and 5-year TIPS new issue Thursday.  

In commodities, spot gold is little changed. WTI crude futures fall 0.3%. Bitcoin rises 1.8%.

US economic calendar calendar empty for the session. September’s CPI print, delayed from last week by US government shutdown that began Oct. 1, is expected to be released Friday. Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the Oct. 29 Fed policy decision began Saturday

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.3%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.4%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.8%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.6%
• DAX +1.1%
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.01%
• VIX -0.1 points at 20.68
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.97
• euro little changed at $1.1662
• WTI crude -0.3% at $57.37/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump Lists Top Demands on China Before Trade Talks Resume: BBG
• China's economy slows as trade war, weak demand highlight structural risks: RTRS
• Stocks resumed gains on Monday as signs of easing trade frictions helped boost sentiment after volatility tied to concerns about US regional lenders: BBG
• US said on Friday that about 1,400 workers will be furloughed at the Nuclear Weapons Security Agency as of Monday due to the government shutdown.
• Microsoft leaders are reportedly worried that meeting OpenAI's rapidly expanding computing demand could lead to overbuilding servers that might not generate a financial return: The Information.
• New analysis of download trends and daily active users provided by Apptopia showed that ChatGPT’s mobile app growth may have hit its peak as estimates indicate that new user growth, measured by percentage changes in new global downloads, slowed after April: TechCrunch.
• Fall in China's exports of rare earth magnets stokes supply chain fears: RTRS
• Gaza Violence Spills Into Another Day, Testing Cease-Fire Deal: WSJ
• Global companies hit by more than $35 billion in US tariffs, but outlook stabilizing: RTRS
• Amazon's AWS recovering after major outage disrupts apps, services worldwide: RTRS
• BNP Slumps After Sudan Ruling Raises Risk of Costly Settlement: BBG
• Gaza Violence Spills Into Another Day, Testing Cease-Fire Deal: WSJ
• Trump accused Colombian President Gustavo Petro of being an “illegal drug leader,” saying the US will halt all aid to the country and impose fresh tariffs in a dramatic escalation of tensions with one of Washington’s closest security partners in Latin America: BBG
• Runaway Insurance Costs Bring Back Talk of Price Caps: WSJ
• South Korea’s top policy chief said the country made “substantial progress” on most key issues in tariff talks with the US, following a weekend of meetings that also saw Seoul’s top tycoons attend a golf event with Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate: BBG
• How China Took Over the World’s Rare-Earths Industry: WSJ
• Australia’s prime minister is set to pitch his nation’s vast resource holdings as a solution to China’s rare earth curbs at a meeting Monday with Trump, as the US and other countries scramble to diversify supply of critical minerals: BBG
• Blackstone and TPG are in advanced negotiations to acquire Hologic in a deal that could value the medical device maker at more than $17 billion including debt, according to people familiar with the matter: BBG
• Holcim agreed to buy Xella, a European walling systems company, in a €1.85 billion deal, expanding its building solutions business following the spin off of its North American unit: BBG
• Wall Street Is Betting on an Obamacare Deal. That Won’t Fix Insurers’ Troubles: WSJ
• KKR & Co. is in talks to buy a minority stake in Hong Kong-based Peak Reinsurance, according to people familiar with the matter: BBG
• Kering Backs Away From Beauty With $4.7 Billion L’Oreal Deal: BBG
• Replimune Soars After FDA Accepts Resubmitted Drug Application: BBG

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said he wants China to buy soybeans at least in the amount they were buying before, and he believes that China will make a deal on soybeans, while he added that they can lower what China has to pay in tariffs, but China has to do things for them too and they do not want China to play a rare earth game with them.
• US President Trump signed a proclamation on Friday to address the threat to national security from imports of medium and heavy-duty vehicles, parts and buses, while an official had announced that Trump is to impose 25% tariffs on heavy-duty trucks effective November 1st and will impose 10% tariffs on imported buses, as well as provide significant tariff relief for automakers’ US production.
• US President Trump’s administration is reportedly quietly watering down some tariffs and has exempted more products from US tariffs in recent weeks, while it offered to exempt hundreds of more goods from farm products when countries strike deals with the US, according to WSJ.
• US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng engaged in candid, in-depth and constructive discussions regarding trade and will meet in person in the week ahead to continue their discussions.
• Dutch Economy Minister Karremans said the Nexperia intervention was needed due to the former CEO’s actions, and he will speak with a Chinese government official about Nexperia within days. Furthermore, he said China and Europe both have an interest in solving problems around Nexperia, and commented that China has the wrong impression that the Netherlands and the US ‘teamed up’ on Nexperia.
• South Korea sees a higher chance of a trade deal with the US by the APEC summit.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were higher amid tailwinds from recent trade-related rhetoric including US President Trump's comments on Friday that 100% tariffs are not sustainable and that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi, while it was also reported that US Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He engaged in candid, in-depth and constructive discussions regarding trade and will meet in person in the week ahead to continue their discussions. ASX 200 marginally gained amid strength in tech and industrials, although the index notably lagged behind regional peers amid weakness in the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 surged to a fresh all-time high above the 49,000 level amid a reignition of the Takaichi trade with the LDP leader on track to become Japan's first female PM following an agreement to form a coalition with Japan's Innovation Party. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp joined in on the positive mood with the Hong Kong benchmark led higher by strength in tech, and as participants digested the latest Chinese data releases, including GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales which either matched or topped forecasts, while the CPC Central Committee is also holding a four-day closed-door meeting through to Thursday to discuss the five-year development plan.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 1Y (Oct) 3.00% vs. Exp. 3.00% (Prev. 3.00%)
• Chinese Loan Prime Rate 5Y (Oct) 3.50% vs. Exp. 3.50% (Prev. 3.50%)
• PBoC Governor Pan said on Friday that the Chinese economy remains on track with positive signs and noted that prices remain stable with Core CPI picking up, while he also said that monetary policy will remain appropriately loose.
• Chinese tech giants paused stablecoin plans after Beijing raised concerns about the rise of currencies controlled by the private sector, according to FT.
• Japan’s LDP and the Japan Innovation Party agreed to form a coalition government. It was separately reported that Japan’s Innovation Party (Ishin) is considering staying out of the Cabinet and cooperating from outside, while Ishin party leader Yoshimura is to meet LDP leader Takaichi at 10:00BST/05:00EDT to finalise the coalition agreement.
• BoJ's Takata said monetary policy remains accommodative even as the achievement of the inflation target is in sight and the initial fear over the impact of tariffs has diminished, while he added they must be mindful of the risk Japan may see inflation overshoot expectations. Takata stated that the BoJ must communicate with markets on the assumption inflation target has been roughly achieved and they need to discuss monetary policy on assumption the price target has already been achieved, as well as noted that the BoJ needs to gradually shift policy in several stages, as Japan's economy is on the cusp of seeing a "true dawn".
• Japan LDP Leader Takaichi intends to appoint Toshimitsu Motegi as Foreign Minister, via Kyodo, looking to appoint Minoru Kihara as Chief Cabinet Secretary.
• BoJ reportedly likely to maintain the view that the economy is on course for moderate recovery, despite headwinds from US tariffs, and may slightly revise up economic growth forecast for FY25 at the October meeting, according to Reuters sources.
• Japan's LDP leader Takaichi and Innovation Party Yoshimura sign agreement to form coalition government (as expected)

European bourses (+0.6%) opened firmer across the board, but have sauntered off best levels as markets digest the ongoing AWS outages. European sectors hold a positive bias. Defence names lead the pile, driven by the heightened geopolitical tensions between both Israel/Hamas and Russia/Ukraine. As for stock specifics, BNP Paribas (-9%) moves lower as traders digest a recent Sudan-ruling and potential implications, alongside S&P's unscheduled downgrade on France. Elsewhere, Kering (+3.8%) benefits after agreeing to sell its beauty division to L'Oreal (+0.5%).

Top European News

• BoE Governor Bailey said Brexit is to have a negative impact on UK economic growth for the foreseeable future.
• UK Energy Secretary Miliband suggested the government is looking at the possibility of cutting the rate of VAT on energy bills, but said that he would not speculate ahead of the Chancellor's Budget in November.
• Three pension giants in the UK have made a fresh GBP 3bln wave of commitments to invest in rental homes, infrastructure and fast-growing companies, ahead of a government-backed meeting to discuss how they can work to boost investment, according to FT.
• France’s wealthy are reportedly investing record amounts in Luxembourg-based annuities and shifting other funds to perceived havens such as Switzerland amid concerns about political turmoil at home, according to FT.
• S&P lowered France to 'A+' from 'AA-'; Outlook Stable, while it cited heightened risks to budgetary consolidation.

FX

• USD is flat/subdued trade during Monday's early European hours after rangebound price action overnight amid the mostly risk-on mood to start the week and following the recent softer tone from US President Trump on China after he noted on Friday that 100% tariffs are unsustainable and that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi in two weeks. On the technical front, DXY found support at its 50 DMA on Friday (50 DMA at 98.04 today), with today's current range between 98.39-98.67.
• Mild upward bias for EUR after rebounding off Friday's trough but remaining beneath the 1.1700 handle, with gains capped as recent comments from ECB officials provided little to spur prices, and after S&P surprisingly lowered France's sovereign credit rating to 'A+' from 'AA-'. Little reaction was seen following German PPI, which eased more than expected. EUR/USD trades in a 1.1652-1.1680 range, within Friday's 1.1650-1.1728 band, with the 100 DMA at 1.1651 today.
• USD/JPY holds a mild upward bias after briefly topping 151.00 overnight to a 151.20 peak before waning, with initial upside facilitated by the positive APAC risk tone, whilst Japan's LDP leader is on course to win the PM vote in parliament tomorrow. The pair was later weighed down by hawkish comments from BoJ's Takata, who said monetary policy remains accommodative even as the achievement of the inflation target is in sight and the initial fear over the impact of tariffs has diminished. Fleeting price action was seen on reports that BoJ is reportedly likely to maintain the view that the economy is on course for moderate recovery, despite headwinds from US tariffs. USD/JPY resides in a 150.34-151.20 range, within Thursday's 150.20-151.40 range, but after falling to 149.37 on Friday.
• Uneventful trade for GBP thus far with newsflow also on the quieter side for the UK, and with little overall move seen to BoE Governor Bailey suggesting Brexit is to have a negative impact on UK economic growth for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, BoE's Greene said on Friday that core and services inflation are going sideways and noted indications that the disinflation process is slowing, while she is concerned about second-round effects and stated that firms are more sensitive to upside inflation surprises. GBP/USD resides in a narrow 1.3406-1.3443 range, within Friday's 1.3391-1.3472 range, with the 50 DMA at 1.3475 today.
• Mild upward bias amid the positive seen in APAC markets, although the same sentiment is somewhat limited in European trade, with AWS outages reported in the US East region, affecting global firms. Nonetheless, US President Trump Friday said talks with China are progressing. Overnight, PBoC maintained LPRs as expected, whilst Chinese GDP, Industrial Production and Retail Sales either matched or topped forecasts, in turn keeping a mild upward bias in copper.

Fixed Income

• JGBs are under modest pressure, down to a 135.89 trough taking out the 136.02 base from Friday. Downside comes amid a constructive global risk tone, weighing on the fixed income space broadly, a tone that saw strength in Japanese stocks overnight. Elsewhere, the weekend saw coalition building updates as Ishin and the LDP came to an agreement, this should allow LDP’s Takaichi to secure premiership at Tuesday’s vote. Note, Ishin+LDP leaves Takaichi a few votes shy of the majority threshold.
• OATs are in the red alongside peers but lagging at most points. Pressure that comes after S&P cut France on Friday to A+ from AA-, remarking that uncertainty over France’s finances remain elevated and that unless a significant deficit-reducing measure is unveiled, the consolidation will be slower than previously thought. An update that has sent OATs to a 122.74 base with losses of just over 40 ticks at most. While lower, the benchmark remains comfortably clear of last week’s 121.82 base and the 120.61 low from the week before that. As such, the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has widened, but remains within familiar levels; at a 80bps peak.
• USTs are in the red. Weighed on by the general risk tone after the trade updates from Trump. In brief, the US President commented that 100% tariffs are not sustainable and that he will be meeting with Chinese President Xi. Furthermore, Treasury Secretary Bessent spoke with Chinese VP He, a talk described as constructive and ahead of a meeting in the near term. Trade aside, US updates are a little light with the shutdown still going and geopolitics dominating a lot of the newsflow. While the shutdown is on and data remains suspended, we will get the September CPI release on Friday for social security adjustment purposes. Down to a 113-10 low with losses of five ticks.
• Bunds are pressured, and with little driving things for the complex so far. Bunds down to a 129.76 base at worst; similarly to peers.
• Over in the UK, Gilts are marginally outperforming vs peers, seemingly thanks to weekend press reports around the upcoming budget, with pension firms making commitments and further chatter around measures Reeves could take. Furthermore, BoE’s Greene said the rate cutting cycle is not over. Updates that have seemingly tempered the bearish bias seen globally, but only marginally.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks falling lower despite reports over the weekend that Hamas violated the ceasefire agreement. WTI and Brent briefly extended Friday’s high on the open, peaking at USD 57.43/bbl and USD 61.55/bbl respectively before falling back into Friday’s range and troughing at USD 56.57/bbl and USD 60.68/bbl respectively.
• Spot XAU oscillating in a USD 4219-4274/oz band as precious metals consolidate following Friday’s selloff that saw XAU and XAG drop as much as 3.3% and 5.9% respectively.
• Base metals are trading higher after the latest Chinese data (GDP, industrial production, and retail sales) either matched or exceeded expectations. In addition, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics said the FY target of 5% growth is still on track. 3M LME Copper extended Friday’s high during the APAC session, forming a peak at USD 10.73k/t, before falling to USD 10.65k/t and oscillating between these parameters.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Israel was attacking Gaza, while the Israeli military said Hamas carried out multiple attacks against Israeli forces beyond the ‘yellow line’, violating the ceasefire. It was separately reported by Axios that US and Israeli sources said that Israel notified the US administration in advance of the strikes in Gaza, while the Israeli military said it began a wave of attacks against Hamas targets in southern Gaza, but later said it is resuming enforcement of the Gaza ceasefire after it was ‘violated’ by Hamas.
• Israeli government spokesperson said Israel has continued to fulfil its obligations to the ceasefire and noted that they are in a ceasefire, but soldiers can act to defend themselves.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu instructed that the Rafah crossing will not be opened until further notice, while an opening will be considered based on whether Hamas returns deceased hostages and implements the agreed-upon framework. It was separately reported by Israeli media that Israel is to halt the supply of aid to Gaza until further notice, while an Israeli official said aid into Gaza was halted due to the truce breach by Hamas.
• US informed the guarantor nations of the peace agreement of credible reports indicating an imminent ceasefire violation by Hamas against the people of Gaza, according to the State Department, which stated that if Hamas proceed with this attack, measures will be taken to protect the people of Gaza and preserve the integrity of the ceasefire.
• A US official cited by Axios stated that Israel told the US it will open the crossing to Gaza on Monday morning, while the Palestinian embassy in Egypt earlier stated that the Rafah border crossing with Egypt is to reopen on Monday, which will allow Palestinians residing in Egypt to return to Gaza.
• Israeli PM’s office said Israel received the bodies of two hostages from the Red Cross in Gaza.
• Qatar’s Foreign Ministry said Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to an immediate ceasefire during talks mediated by Turkey and Qatar in Doha.
• "According to Arab media reports, a number of people were killed and wounded during the Israeli army's shooting in eastern Gaza", according to Iran International.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• US President Trump told Ukrainian President Zelensky in a tense meeting on Friday that he doesn’t intend to provide missiles, at least for now, according to Axios. It was separately reported that Trump urged Zelensky to accept Russian President Putin’s terms and said that Putin warned he would “destroy” Ukraine if it did not agree, according to FT.
• US President Trump said he did not discuss Ukraine ceding the Donbas region to Russia, and the region should stay as it is now, with Russia having some 78% of it.
• Russian President Putin reportedly demanded during a phone call with US President Trump that the territory of the Donetsk region must completely come under the control of the Russian army to end the war, but with Russia now ready to give up “parts” of the territories of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in exchange for it, according to The Washington Post.
• Russia said its forces captured Pleshchivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, while Russian forces also captured Chunyshyne and Poltavka in eastern Ukraine, according to RIA.
• IAEA said work has begun to repair damaged off-site power lines to the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant after a four-week outage, following the establishment of local ceasefire zones to allow work to proceed.
• UK PM Starmer said the UK would continue to step up its support and would ensure Ukraine was in the strongest possible position, according to a Downing Street spokesperson.
• Ukraine President Zelensky is expected to partake in a top-level meeting in Brussels this week, via Politico citing sources; diplomats add the Trump-Zelensky meeting was not as "bleak as reported".
• Ukrainian President Zelensky, when asked about Tomahawk missiles, says in his view, US President Trump does not want escalation with Russia until he has had a chance to have another meeting with Moscow.

Geopolitics: Other

• China said it found evidence of a US cyberattack on a Chinese state agency.
• US President Trump officials are quietly discussing the idea of a meeting with North Korea’s leader Kim during an upcoming Asia trip, according to CNN.
• US President Trump said they destroyed a very large drug-carrying submarine that was navigating towards the US on a well-known narcotrafficking transit route, while US intelligence confirmed the vessel was loaded up with mostly fentanyl.
• US President Trump called Colombian President Petro a ‘drug dealer’ and announced the US would end “large-scale payments and subsidies”, according to The Sunday Times.
• US Republican Senator Graham said President Trump will be announcing major tariffs against Colombia, while President Trump confirmed Senator Graham's statement on Colombia tariffs and said he will announce more regarding this on Monday.

US Event Calendar

• Fed’s External Communications Blackout (October 18 - October 30)

DB's Jim reid concludes the overnight wrap

The mood music on tariffs has sounded much more positive in recent days. As it stands, President Trump has threatened additional 100% tariffs on China from November 1, but Treasury Secretary Bessent said that he’d be meeting with China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng in person this week. And on Friday, President Trump said he thought that a meeting with Chinese President Xi in South Korea would still go ahead, and said “I think we’re getting along with China”. So that’s added to investor expectations that those 100% tariffs won’t come into force, and if we look at Polymarket, it’s currently pointing to just a 7% chance they come into effect by November 1.

As all that’s happening, we still have the ongoing government shutdown in the US, which is now on day 20. Bear in mind that only two shutdowns have been longer than this one, which were the 35-day shutdown in 2018-19, and the 21-day shutdown in 1995-96. And as it stands, there’s still no sign of a compromise between Republicans and Democrats that would see the government re-open. In terms of the market implications, this is still affecting the flow of economic data, so we’re not getting regular releases like the weekly initial jobless claims, and we don’t have the payrolls number for September either. However, this week we will get the postponed CPI release for September, which is coming out on Friday, just in time for the FOMC meeting the week after.

In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for headline CPI to come in at a monthly +0.42% pace, which would push up the year-on-year rate to +3.1%, and be the strongest monthly print since January. Meanwhile for core CPI, they expect that to come in at +0.32%, with the year-on-year print remaining at +3.1%. Within the data, they’re still looking for signs of tariff impacts in core goods, with a focus on categories like apparel and new vehicles that haven’t yet seen a meaningful tariff pass-through. For more information, see their full preview here.

Otherwise this week, another key data highlight will be the October flash PMIs on Friday, which will give us an initial indication as to how the global economy has fared at the start of Q4. We also have a few CPI prints elsewhere, including from Japan, the UK and Canada. Then on the earnings side, we’ve got more than 80 companies in the S&P 500 reporting this week, including Tesla and Netflix, along with more than 80 from the STOXX 600, including Barclays, NatWest and SAP.

Overnight in Asia, markets have got the week off to a strong start this morning, as easing trade tensions has lifted equities across the region. Japan’s Nikkei (+2.94%) has been the biggest outperformer, which has got a further boost after the Liberal Democratic Party agreed a coalition deal with the Japan Innovation Party, setting up Sanae Takaichi to become the country’s next Prime Minister. She’s been pro-stimulus, similar to her predecessor Shinzo Abe, and their 5yr bond yield (+4.8bps) is up to a post-2008 high of 1.23% overnight.

Meanwhile in China, the Q3 GDP figures overnight have shown growth decelerating to +4.8% year-on-year, the slowest in a year. However, that’s marginally better than the +4.7% reading expected by the consensus, so we haven’t seen much of a direct market reaction, and indices including the CSI 300 (+0.80%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.69%) have both risen this morning. That’s been echoed elsewhere in Asia, with South Korea’s KOSPI up +1.02%. And US and European equity futures have similarly moved higher, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.33%) and the DAX (+0.67%) pointing to solid gains. The main point of weakness is among French bond futures, which have underperformed their German counterparts this morning after S&P’s move on Friday to lower France’s credit rating from AA- to A+.

Recapping last week now, it was a topsy-turvy one for markets, with several different themes to digest. Initially, risk assets bounced back strongly from the US-China sell-off on the previous Friday, but there was then a big slump thanks to those fresh concerns about regional banks, before more positive trade headlines and earnings results led to a fresh recovery. So at the height of those fears, the VIX index hit an intraday peak of 28.99pts, something we hadn’t seen since April just after the Liberation Day turmoil. But that volatility ultimately subsided, with the VIX ending the week down slightly at 20.78pts, whilst the S&P 500 also ended the week up +1.70%. Those gains were even stronger for the NASDAQ (+2.14%), with a boost from OpenAI’s deal with Broadcom (+7.61% last week) to purchase 10 gigawatts of computer chips. However, regional banks still struggled given the broader concerns around credit quality, and the KBW regional bank index fell -1.72% in its 4th consecutive weekly decline.

Meanwhile for US Treasuries, there was a rally across the curve, particularly at the front-end as investors dialled up their expectations for Fed rate cuts. That was partly driven by the general risk-off tone amidst the regional bank issues, but lower oil prices also helped to lower inflation expectations. So the 1yr US inflation swap fell -4.7bps last week to a 3-month low of 3.10%. And in turn, the amount of cuts priced in by the June 2026 meeting was up +6.3bps on the week to 101bps. So the 2yr yield ended the week -4.4bps lower at 3.46%, whilst the 10yr yield fell -2.3bps to 4.01%.

Over in Europe, there was a very divergent performance. For instance, France’s CAC 40 moved up +3.24% after French PM Lecornu survived no-confidence votes in the National Assembly, whilst the index was also supported by strong earnings from LVMH (+10.93%). However, the STOXX 600 was up by a smaller +0.37%, and the German DAX actually fell -1.69% last week alongside declines for Italy’s FTSE MIB (-0.69%) and the UK’s FTSE 100 (-0.77%). For bonds, however, there was a more consistent rally, with yields on 10yr bunds (-6.4bps), OATs (-11.8bps), and BTPs (-8.8bps) all moving lower. And over in the UK, 10yr gilts (-14.4bps) outperformed as weaker-than-expected data saw investors dial up their expectations for Bank of England rate cuts.

Lastly, precious metals continued to perform very strongly, with both gold and silver prices posting a 9th consecutive weekly gain for the first time since 2020. For gold, that meant prices rose +5.82% last week to $4,252/oz, and they even hit an intraday record of $4,380/oz at one point. Meanwhile silver was up +3.53% to $51.92/oz. Otherwise, Brent crude oil prices fell -2.30% last week to $61.29/bbl, which came as a backdrop of rising OPEC+ supply and lingering trade uncertainty was boosted by easing fears of restrictions on Russian oil. That followed a call between President Trump and President Putin, who agreed to a meeting in Budapest

 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 08:43

Kushner: Trump Believes Israel Is "Getting A Little Bit Out Of Control"

Via The Libertarian Institute 

In an interview, Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, said the President believed Israel was out of control following the attempted assassination of Hamas leaders in Qatar. 

Kushner and Trump’s Envoy Steve Witkoff appeared on 60 Minutes on Sunday. When asked how Trump responded after learning of the Israeli assassination attempt last month, Kushner responded, Trump "Trump felt like the Israelis were getting a little bit out of control."

US Embassy file image

He continued, "It was time to be very strong and stop them from doing things that he felt were not in their long-term interests."

Witkoff explained that Doha was playing a key mediating role in talks between Israel and Hamas. He said the strikes set back negotiations, and the Qataris lost faith in the US. He added, “We felt a little bit betrayed.” 

On September 9, Israel fired 10 missiles at a Hamas building in Qatar, killing several people, including a Qatari security official. The Hamas officials were meeting to discuss a ceasefire and hostage exchange proposed by Trump.

Witkoff also claimed that Trump did not have knowledge that Israel was planning to attempt to kill the Hamas leaders. However, Israeli officials have disputed that narrative, claiming Trump was informed at least hours before the attack, and did not push Israel to call off the operation. 

Following the assassination, Trump had to try to mend the relationship between Tel Aviv, Washington, and Doha. Trump mediated a call where Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apologized to his Qatari counterpart. 

Exclusive: Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law, and special envoy Steve Witkoff give a behind-the-scenes look at the tense moments leading up to the ceasefire and hostage deal after an Israeli bombing threatened to derail the agreement.

“[Trump] felt like the Israelis… pic.twitter.com/WtZpJcYHTG

— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) October 17, 2025

Trump also signed an Executive Order giving additional security guarantees to Doha. Qatar is a Major non-NATO US ally and hosts the largest US airbase in the Middle East.

Kushner does not have an official role in the Trump administration, but has had a significant influence over Trump’s Middle East policy during both terms in the White House. Kushner is the founder of Affinity Partners, a private equity firm that has significant business ties with Saudi Arabia. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 08:25

The post My Generation: Blame the Rich, Not the Boomers appeared first on CEPR.

Paramount Is Laying Off Up To 3,000 Employees Starting This Month

By Luke Bouma of CordCutterNews

Paramount Global is poised to initiate a sweeping round of layoffs affecting up to 3,000 employees as early as the week of October 27, 2025. This accelerated timeline, drawn from insights shared by industry insiders, comes just weeks after the closure of Skydance Media’s transformative acquisition of the storied entertainment giant according to a report from Deadline. The move underscores the aggressive financial recalibration underway at the newly merged entity, as it grapples with mounting pressures from streaming competition, declining linear TV revenues, and the need to streamline operations in an era of belt-tightening across the media sector.

The decision to advance the job cuts from an originally anticipated early November start reflects heightened urgency within the executive suites. Paramount’s leadership, now steered by David Ellison’s Skydance Corporation following the August 7 deal’s completion, has been laser-focused on realizing substantial cost reductions. Sources close to the matter indicate that the impending reductions represent the opening salvo in a broader restructuring effort projected to extend through the close of the year. While initial estimates pegged the total impact at 2,500 to 3,000 positions globally, domestic U.S. staffers could face around 2,000 of those eliminations, with international savings still under rigorous calculation. This first phase alone would trim a significant chunk from Paramount’s pre-merger workforce of approximately 18,000, dwarfing Skydance’s leaner headcount of under 2,000.

At the heart of these measures lies a bold financial target: slashing operational expenses by roughly $2 billion in the years following the merger. Skydance’s integration strategy emphasizes efficiency, blending its agile production model with Paramount’s vast but bloated infrastructure. The layoffs are set to ripple across every corner of the business, from theatrical film divisions grappling with blockbuster unpredictability to streaming platforms like Paramount+ battling subscriber churn. Linear television arms, long a cornerstone of the company’s revenue, face particularly acute scrutiny as cord-cutting accelerates and ad dollars migrate online. Even ancillary units, such as global distribution and marketing, will not be spared, as the conglomerate seeks to eliminate redundancies born from years of expansion and acquisition.

This impending workforce contraction arrives on the heels of a string of high-profile executive exits, signaling deeper instability at the top. Key leaders in creative, finance, and strategy roles have already departed, paving the way for a more unified command structure under Ellison’s vision. The merger itself, valued at billions, promised synergies that could revitalize Paramount’s fortunes, yet it has instead spotlighted the chasm between Skydance’s nimble ethos and Paramount’s legacy behemoth status. Insiders describe the atmosphere as one of cautious resolve, with teams bracing for disruptions that could ripple through ongoing productions, from tentpole franchises to niche content pipelines.

Paramount’s forthcoming third-quarter earnings call, scheduled for November 10, will offer the first public glimpse into the financial toll and triumphs of this overhaul. Analysts anticipate disclosures on how these cuts factor into broader profitability goals, especially as the company navigates licensing deals, content investments, and the evolving demands of a fragmented audience. The timing of the layoffs, just ahead of this key investor update, appears calculated to present a leaner balance sheet, potentially boosting stock performance amid Wall Street’s skepticism toward legacy media.

This development fits into a grim mosaic of downsizing that has defined Hollywood and broader media circles throughout 2025. Warner Bros. Discovery, CNN, and other titans have similarly wielded the axe, citing similar headwinds from digital disruption and economic headwinds. For Paramount employees, the news carries a heavy personal weight, as families and careers hang in the balance during the holiday season. Yet, in the words of incoming leadership, these steps—though undoubtedly challenging—aim to forge a more sustainable path forward, positioning the merged powerhouse to compete in a landscape where agility trumps scale.

As the week of October 27 approaches, the entertainment world watches closely. Will these reductions catalyze a phoenix-like resurgence for Paramount, or merely deepen the scars of an industry in flux? With Skydance at the helm, the conglomerate’s next chapter promises high drama, both on and off the screen.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 08:05

Trump Says Gaza Ceasefire Still In Place As Israel Halts Short-Lived Airstrikes

The Trump-brokered ceasefire in Gaza is hanging by a thread, as local officials say that nearly 100 Palestinians have been killed and some 230 wounded overall since the ceasefire's start on October 10.

Israel on Sunday launched dozens of new airstrikes in response to what it called Hamas's "blatant violation" of the deal, but which the militant group denied. Gaza sources said at least 44 were killed as a result of those Sunday strikes.

Via Reuters

Israel's military (IDF) had said "terrorists fired an anti-tank missile and gunfire" toward its troops in Rafah, killing two soldiers - but this was met with a statement by Hamas saying it was "unaware" of any such fighting. 

But the Palestinian side is charging Israel of violations while warning that these strikes could "push the situation toward a total collapse".

But by Sunday night the IDF said it "had begun renewed enforcement of the ceasefire" but followed by asserting it would "respond firmly to any violation of it."

"The military later said it resumed enforcing the ceasefire, and the official confirmed that aid deliveries would resume Monday," France24 writes. "The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he’s not authorised to discuss the issue with the media."

President Trump has sought to downplay the weekend flare-up in hostilities. He told reporters that the ceasefire is still in placed, but that Hamas had been "rambunctious and they've been doing some shooting." He stipulated it could be "some rebels within" the armed group. "Either way it's gonna be handled properly. Toughly but properly," he added.

Special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner have returned to Israel, as part of efforts to ensure the fragile ceasefire continues, and after Israel temporarily prevented aid from reaching the Strip, but then reopened at least one border crossing on Monday morning.

Kushner told CBS over the weekend, "The biggest message that we’ve tried to convey to the Israeli leadership now is that now that the war is over, if you want to integrate Israel with the broader Middle East, you have to find a way to help the Palestinian people thrive and do better."

AFP/Getty Images

Israeli media is also reporting Vice President JD Vance is also to visit Israel on Tuesday, with Tel Aviv's Ben Gurion International Airport being the first to note it's been ordered to make preparations.

Meanwhile, Al Jazeera highlights yet another pressing issue facing Palestinians - toxic health risks piling up in cities and streets. "Public services were suspended during the war, and waste piled up. Municipal officials say piles of filthy rubbish need to be cleared from Gaza’s streets," the outlet reports. "The mounds of rubbish are posing a severe health risk."

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 07:45

My back-to-work morning train WFH reads:

• Volatility Is Back in the Stock Market. Here’s the Zen Way to Handle It. The S&P 500 fell 2.7% this past Friday, ending a 33-day streak without a 1% move and highlighting renewed market volatility. Diversification beyond the S&P 500 is recommended, with international stocks up 26% year to date versus 13% for the S&P 500. (Barron’s)

• Apple’s biggest iPhone overhaul in years ignites upgrade frenzy: Extended wait times and generous trade-in deals signal surging demand for newly redesigned device. (Financial Times)

• How Palantir’s CEO forged a connection with investors by writing spicy shareholder letters that quote philosophers and skewer ‘technocratic elites’. Somewhere along the way, Karp changed his tune. He has done the earnings calls since Palantir went public, and about two years after that, Karp started carving out additional time to pen lengthy missives in the form of shareholder letters. Alongside the company’s financial results, Karp fills the letters with the sorts of topics most executives bend over backwards to avoid: global politics, philosophy, or even religion. You may not like what Karp has to say, but one thing is guaranteed: It’s going to be interesting.(Fortune)

• More Working-Class Americans Than Ever Are Investing in the Stock Market: For the first time, a majority of low earners have an investment account, and more than half of those new investors entered the markets in the past five years. (Wall Street Journal)

• Robinhood Is Banking on Babies and 401(k)s to Get Everyone Trading: After making its name on millennials and meme stocks, the popular brokerage app is riding its Trump bump into the S&P 500 and beyond. (Bloomberg)

• Setting the record straight: The truths about index fund investing: Index fund investing has numerous benefits, including lower costs, diversification, tax efficiency, and relative return predictability; The increased adoption of index fund investing has heightened emphasis on the binary labels of “passive” and “active,” as if all index funds can be described as a monolithic, homogeneous strategy. This has led to many faulty assertions about index fund investing; Our analysis dispels assertions tied to the growth of index fund investing and offers evidence that refutes key misperceptions. (Vanguard)

• Mad Libs: just fill in the blanks. the upshot is that 12-15 House seats could conceivably switch parties before the midterm elections, although the actual number is likely to be less than that. (JPM)

• Shohei Ohtani just played the greatest game in baseball history: On a night of legendary excellence, Ohtani hit three home runs and pitched six-plus scoreless innings to lift the Dodgers to the National League pennant. (Washington Post)

• The Exercise That Takes Off 20 Years: There are several simple tests that can be done at home in order to check our current strength level and to show us where we may need to improve. (Vogue) see also Wait, Are Carbs Actually Awesome? The carb is 180-years old this year. Why are we still so scared of it? (Men’s Health)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business interview this weekend with Henry Ward,  CEO and co-founder of Carta. The firm works with more than 50,000 companies, 8,500 investment funds, and 2.5+ million equity holders to manage capitalization tables, compensation, valuations, and liquidity, tracking over $2.5 trillion in company equity.

 

Like Greenspan in late 1998 (LTCM), Powell cut rates even as the S&P 500 was soaring to new highs and sentiment was getting frothy

Source: LinkedIn

 

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The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Escaping The 'Digital Concentration Camp'; Gold Fights The 'Financial Control Grid'

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), publisher of “The Solari Report,” is back with a new cutting-edge publication called “Plunder.”

CAF has been pushing gold (and silver) as an investment for the past few years.  The record high price of the yellow metal has proven her right.  In order for the few to control and steal the assets of the many, they have to build what CAF calls a “financial control grid.”  

What can help common people fight the control grid being built in front of their eyes? 

Buy the oldest money on the planet.  CAF says:

“We are seeing an increased move to institute a control grid. 

 For example, you have the PM of England standing up and saying if you don’t have a digital ID, you can’t work.  

People are saying, wait a minute, I want my money outside the system because this system is beginning to act in criminal ways and manic ways. 

We are seeing changes in policies at the federal level that make people nervous.  So, the reality is gold is simple.  Everybody can understand it...

Gold is looking attractive, and it is being remonetized.  It’s not just by central bankers, now we see states around the United States making gold legal tender. . .. Silver has lagged dramatically, but silver is catching up.”

Is there something wrong with the financial system for gold and silver to be flashing these warning signs with record high prices?  CAF says:

“There is something very wrong with the financial system, and that is the financial system is being used to institute a control grid. 

If they succeed instituting an all-digital financial system that includes AI (artificial intelligence), a digital ID and an all-digital financial system, then we are looking at the end of currency and what I call the digital concentration camp...

Now that you have printed so much money, you want to get control of the real assets, and that’s what they have been doin...

The game of growing the debt is over.  Like the game of musical chairs, we are all going to scramble to get control of the real assets.  

This is why they have been pushing programmable money because you are trying to suck them out of the real assets while they build the control grid and while they jump in and get control of the real assets...

What I keep telling everybody is to focus on what is real, and focus on what you can understand.”

CAF also points out, “We are in a war, and people are trying to poison you.  You have to take responsibility for your health and food choices.  In the “Plunder” wrap-up, we talk about all the different efforts to plunder all the different countries around the world..."

" What we have heard for years is, eventually, they would come and plunder the United States.  It was just a matter of time, and now it is happening.  That’s why it’s so important to see the game.”

In closing, CAF gives many ideas and strategies to thwart the plunder such as everyone increasing the use of cash, making good food and health choices, not financing your enemies and acquiring hard assets such as farmland and gold, which CAF says is “starting a new bull market.”

There is much more in the 58-minute interview.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 06:30

EU Capital Markets Union: Germany's Merz Calls For A "Wall Street" For Europe

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

In the German Bundestag, Friedrich Merz appealed to the EU to integrate the fragmented European capital market more deeply and reduce bureaucratic hurdles. His vision for the next step: a kind of Wall Street for Europe.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz used his government statement on Thursday to take a strategic look at what he called the “fragmented and over-bureaucratized” European stock and capital market landscape. His stated goal: the completion of the Capital Markets Union.

“We need a kind of European Stock Exchange, so that successful companies like BionTech from Germany don’t have to go to the New York Stock Exchange,” Merz said. “Our companies need a sufficiently broad and deep capital market to fund themselves faster and more efficiently.”

Keeping Value Creation in Europe 

The Chancellor linked this call to a strong appeal to the European Commission for consistent de-bureaucratization of the fragmented European capital market. Only in this way, he stressed, will the value created from German and European research truly remain in Europe. Only then can societal wealth grow via the capital market, Merz argued.

The debate is fueled by the growing trend of European innovative companies raising capital on U.S. exchanges. Recent examples include Linde, Birkenstock Holding, and BioNTech – firms that chose Wall Street listings over domestic options.

This discussion fits into a broader financial context: the integration of European financial and capital markets. A far-reaching harmonization of financial hubs and access to capital would not be a mistake. Currently, there are around 15 securities exchanges in the Eurozone. The two largest operators – Euronext N.V. and Deutsche Börse AG – together handle about 80 percent of the annual €8 trillion equity trading volume.

Ending Capital Flight 

Merz’ initiative stands not only for institutional reform but also as an attempt to free Europe’s financial markets from self-imposed regulatory constraints.

The Chancellor emphasized the importance of better financing for innovative startups in high-tech future industries. Experience shows, however, that these companies tend to rely on venture capital – and they have no difficulty listing on international exchanges like Frankfurt or London.

The real question for Brussels and Berlin is whether focusing on a new financial hub alone is enough to prevent visible capital flows from Europe to the United States.

Germany alone lost around €64.5 billion last year due to capital flight – a symptom of deeper issues: an overbearing regulatory framework from Brussels and EU capitals, excessive fiscal burdens, and an escalating energy cost crisis.

The Real Target 

These are fundamental economic imbalances that cannot be resolved simply by creating a European mega-exchange. They are homegrown design flaws – at the heart of today’s economic crisis.

In reality, the debate over the Capital Markets Union is about something else entirely: the European Commission’s strategic goal to consolidate member state debt under its roof. This would give Brussels greater financial clout through regular EU bond issuances. More centralization in Brussels, less national oversight – the dream of the Brussels power center.

The EU is gradually moving toward a paradigm shift in debt financing. Originally, the Commission was strictly prohibited from financing itself via market issuances. That red line has long been crossed.

The COVID lockdowns provided a lever to launch NextGenerationEU, an unprecedented €800 billion debt program. This money largely financed national deficits, with the Commission acting as a market borrower, backed by the European Central Bank.

Brussels Is Already Active in the Market 

It is no secret that Brussels wants to expand this model. The Ukraine conflict serves as a convenient pretext to issue new joint debt under the media-amplified threat of Russian aggression. Chancellor Merz has already indicated this spring that EU-wide borrowing for defense purposes is not off the table – but only for “absolute exceptional cases.”

Merz deliberately avoided the term “Eurobonds,” just like Ursula von der Leyen, who in her State of the Union speech on September 10 circumnavigated the term, instead proposing a common European budget for “European goods.”

The signal is clear: we are in a transitional phase where old debt rules are being gradually loosened, and the centralization of debt issuance in Brussels is systematically advanced.

Euroclear as an Anchor 

This aligns seamlessly with thinking about a shared European exchange – potentially hosted by Euroclear in Brussels, the central player in the safekeeping and settlement of Eurozone securities. A serious move would also consider relocating the European Central Bank to Brussels for fast debt issuance.

The EU’s response to the looming debt crisis is obvious: a much higher degree of centralization. Activating capital that can be leveraged to expand debt becomes strategic; the exchange consolidation is just a secondary concern.

This also ties into the debate over using frozen Russian assets at Euroclear. The goal: collateralize a portfolio worth around €200 billion, largely expired European sovereign bonds, to finance reparations loans to Ukraine. Brussels is searching for credit collateral, regardless of origin.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 05:20

EU Capital Markets Union: Germany's Merz Calls For A "Wall Street" For Europe

Submitted by Thomas Kolbe

In the German Bundestag, Friedrich Merz appealed to the EU to integrate the fragmented European capital market more deeply and reduce bureaucratic hurdles. His vision for the next step: a kind of Wall Street for Europe.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz used his government statement on Thursday to take a strategic look at what he called the “fragmented and over-bureaucratized” European stock and capital market landscape. His stated goal: the completion of the Capital Markets Union.

“We need a kind of European Stock Exchange, so that successful companies like BionTech from Germany don’t have to go to the New York Stock Exchange,” Merz said. “Our companies need a sufficiently broad and deep capital market to fund themselves faster and more efficiently.”

Keeping Value Creation in Europe 

The Chancellor linked this call to a strong appeal to the European Commission for consistent de-bureaucratization of the fragmented European capital market. Only in this way, he stressed, will the value created from German and European research truly remain in Europe. Only then can societal wealth grow via the capital market, Merz argued.

The debate is fueled by the growing trend of European innovative companies raising capital on U.S. exchanges. Recent examples include Linde, Birkenstock Holding, and BioNTech – firms that chose Wall Street listings over domestic options.

This discussion fits into a broader financial context: the integration of European financial and capital markets. A far-reaching harmonization of financial hubs and access to capital would not be a mistake. Currently, there are around 15 securities exchanges in the Eurozone. The two largest operators – Euronext N.V. and Deutsche Börse AG – together handle about 80 percent of the annual €8 trillion equity trading volume.

Ending Capital Flight 

Merz’ initiative stands not only for institutional reform but also as an attempt to free Europe’s financial markets from self-imposed regulatory constraints.

The Chancellor emphasized the importance of better financing for innovative startups in high-tech future industries. Experience shows, however, that these companies tend to rely on venture capital – and they have no difficulty listing on international exchanges like Frankfurt or London.

The real question for Brussels and Berlin is whether focusing on a new financial hub alone is enough to prevent visible capital flows from Europe to the United States.

Germany alone lost around €64.5 billion last year due to capital flight – a symptom of deeper issues: an overbearing regulatory framework from Brussels and EU capitals, excessive fiscal burdens, and an escalating energy cost crisis.

The Real Target 

These are fundamental economic imbalances that cannot be resolved simply by creating a European mega-exchange. They are homegrown design flaws – at the heart of today’s economic crisis.

In reality, the debate over the Capital Markets Union is about something else entirely: the European Commission’s strategic goal to consolidate member state debt under its roof. This would give Brussels greater financial clout through regular EU bond issuances. More centralization in Brussels, less national oversight – the dream of the Brussels power center.

The EU is gradually moving toward a paradigm shift in debt financing. Originally, the Commission was strictly prohibited from financing itself via market issuances. That red line has long been crossed.

The COVID lockdowns provided a lever to launch NextGenerationEU, an unprecedented €800 billion debt program. This money largely financed national deficits, with the Commission acting as a market borrower, backed by the European Central Bank.

Brussels Is Already Active in the Market 

It is no secret that Brussels wants to expand this model. The Ukraine conflict serves as a convenient pretext to issue new joint debt under the media-amplified threat of Russian aggression. Chancellor Merz has already indicated this spring that EU-wide borrowing for defense purposes is not off the table – but only for “absolute exceptional cases.”

Merz deliberately avoided the term “Eurobonds,” just like Ursula von der Leyen, who in her State of the Union speech on September 10 circumnavigated the term, instead proposing a common European budget for “European goods.”

The signal is clear: we are in a transitional phase where old debt rules are being gradually loosened, and the centralization of debt issuance in Brussels is systematically advanced.

Euroclear as an Anchor 

This aligns seamlessly with thinking about a shared European exchange – potentially hosted by Euroclear in Brussels, the central player in the safekeeping and settlement of Eurozone securities. A serious move would also consider relocating the European Central Bank to Brussels for fast debt issuance.

The EU’s response to the looming debt crisis is obvious: a much higher degree of centralization. Activating capital that can be leveraged to expand debt becomes strategic; the exchange consolidation is just a secondary concern.

This also ties into the debate over using frozen Russian assets at Euroclear. The goal: collateralize a portfolio worth around €200 billion, largely expired European sovereign bonds, to finance reparations loans to Ukraine. Brussels is searching for credit collateral, regardless of origin.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 05:20

Shell's Fuel Shortage In Indonesia Proves The Next Era Is Electric

Around 200 Shell outlets in Indonesia have run out of gasoline after domestic supply disruptions tied to state oil giant PT Pertamina and a sweeping corruption probe, according to Bloomberg.

Rivals such as BP AKR and Vitol’s Vivo have also been empty for weeks. Lines now snake through Pertamina’s own stations, the only ones still reliably selling fuel — though “neither drivers, nor private competitors, trust the quality of the product it offers.” Shell decided in May to leave the retail market altogether.

A century ago, Indonesia was among the world’s great petroleum producers. A deal between a London trader and a Dutch oilfield operator in Sumatra led to the founding of what became Shell in 1907. But the nationalization of its Indonesian arm in 1957 created Pertamina, which soon became a symbol of both wealth and graft. Under General Ibnu Sutowo, who ran the company until 1976, Pertamina collapsed under billions in debt and became shorthand for elite excess.

Bloomberg writes that since those glory days, output has fallen by two-thirds while the population has doubled to 283 million. Indonesia now imports much of its refined fuel, consumes more gasoline than Germany, and boasts one of the world’s largest vehicle fleets — mostly scooters. As ever, the profits have flowed toward insiders. Suharto-era cronies dominated oil trading in the 1980s, and protests over fuel prices helped bring down his regime in 1998.

Promises of reform have repeatedly failed. President Joko Widodo once vowed to dismantle the “oil-and-gas mafia,” but corruption endured. This February, President Prabowo Subianto’s government launched an investigation into allegations that $11.9 billion was siphoned from Pertamina between 2018 and 2023 — largely by diluting premium gasoline with lower-grade fuel, damaging countless engines in the process.

Distrust has driven consumers to private retailers such as Shell, BP, and Vivo. Yet import restrictions prevented these firms from meeting surging demand. They were forced to seek extra supplies from Pertamina — and, wary of contamination, often refused delivery. The result: a nationwide fuel drought.

The chaos is accelerating Indonesia’s quiet electric revolution. Battery-powered vehicles already command more than 14% of the market, thanks to cheap electricity and falling prices. The top-selling electric scooter, the Polytron Fox R, costs roughly two-thirds as much as its gas rival, Honda’s BeAT. Even with limited public charging, private swap stations and home outlets are filling the gap.

This could be a story of renewal: a vast, resource-rich nation pivoting toward clean, affordable energy. But that future depends on loosening the grip of a fossil-fueled elite that’s profited from dysfunction for decades. As long as Pertamina’s monopoly endures, innovation will struggle to breathe.

Indonesia’s gasoline crisis mirrors the public anger spilling into its streets — both driven by a collapse of trust in the state. If President Prabowo wants to get ahead of that, he should use the EV boom to open the market and curb Pertamina’s dominance, “acting as ruthlessly as his predecessor Widodo did in liquidating its scandal-plagued trading arm back in 2015.”

The kleptocratic habits of the Suharto years have no place in a modern democracy. The well has run dry; the future, unmistakably, is electric.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 04:15

Shell's Fuel Shortage In Indonesia Proves The Next Era Is Electric

Around 200 Shell outlets in Indonesia have run out of gasoline after domestic supply disruptions tied to state oil giant PT Pertamina and a sweeping corruption probe, according to Bloomberg.

Rivals such as BP AKR and Vitol’s Vivo have also been empty for weeks. Lines now snake through Pertamina’s own stations, the only ones still reliably selling fuel — though “neither drivers, nor private competitors, trust the quality of the product it offers.” Shell decided in May to leave the retail market altogether.

A century ago, Indonesia was among the world’s great petroleum producers. A deal between a London trader and a Dutch oilfield operator in Sumatra led to the founding of what became Shell in 1907. But the nationalization of its Indonesian arm in 1957 created Pertamina, which soon became a symbol of both wealth and graft. Under General Ibnu Sutowo, who ran the company until 1976, Pertamina collapsed under billions in debt and became shorthand for elite excess.

Bloomberg writes that since those glory days, output has fallen by two-thirds while the population has doubled to 283 million. Indonesia now imports much of its refined fuel, consumes more gasoline than Germany, and boasts one of the world’s largest vehicle fleets — mostly scooters. As ever, the profits have flowed toward insiders. Suharto-era cronies dominated oil trading in the 1980s, and protests over fuel prices helped bring down his regime in 1998.

Promises of reform have repeatedly failed. President Joko Widodo once vowed to dismantle the “oil-and-gas mafia,” but corruption endured. This February, President Prabowo Subianto’s government launched an investigation into allegations that $11.9 billion was siphoned from Pertamina between 2018 and 2023 — largely by diluting premium gasoline with lower-grade fuel, damaging countless engines in the process.

Distrust has driven consumers to private retailers such as Shell, BP, and Vivo. Yet import restrictions prevented these firms from meeting surging demand. They were forced to seek extra supplies from Pertamina — and, wary of contamination, often refused delivery. The result: a nationwide fuel drought.

The chaos is accelerating Indonesia’s quiet electric revolution. Battery-powered vehicles already command more than 14% of the market, thanks to cheap electricity and falling prices. The top-selling electric scooter, the Polytron Fox R, costs roughly two-thirds as much as its gas rival, Honda’s BeAT. Even with limited public charging, private swap stations and home outlets are filling the gap.

This could be a story of renewal: a vast, resource-rich nation pivoting toward clean, affordable energy. But that future depends on loosening the grip of a fossil-fueled elite that’s profited from dysfunction for decades. As long as Pertamina’s monopoly endures, innovation will struggle to breathe.

Indonesia’s gasoline crisis mirrors the public anger spilling into its streets — both driven by a collapse of trust in the state. If President Prabowo wants to get ahead of that, he should use the EV boom to open the market and curb Pertamina’s dominance, “acting as ruthlessly as his predecessor Widodo did in liquidating its scandal-plagued trading arm back in 2015.”

The kleptocratic habits of the Suharto years have no place in a modern democracy. The well has run dry; the future, unmistakably, is electric.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 04:15

The Rise & Rise Of AfD: Exploring The Unprecedented Political Dumbassery Afoot In The Federal Republic

Authored by 'eugyppius' via A Plague Chronicle,

The firewall is making AfD the strongest party in Germany, artificially empowering the left and destroying the centre-right, who alone can lift it

There’s a subtle, little-discussed but very bizarre political phenomenon that has interested me ever since I started blogging and paying serious attention to politics.

I first noticed it during Covid. Back in those dark days, virus understanders sold measures like lockdowns and masking to the public first as a means of keeping hospitals at capacity by slowing virus infections, then as a means of slowing virus infections just because, and finally as rituals that we had to do more of whenever infections rose, regardless of what effect they had on anything. Mass vaccination followed a nearly identical arc. At first the vaccinators said everyone had to be vaccinated to stop the virus, but by late Autumn 2021 they wanted to vaccinate everybody as much as possible because reasons. In both cases you could see, in real time, the ends towards which we were striving regressing, until finally the means became unquestionable ends in themselves.

I propose to call this phenomenon endification, and I think it is very significant.

It seems to happen whenever you mobilise large, complex systems towards goals that sooner or later prove unattainable. As these goals pass out of reach but the system remains mobilised, basic understandings of what we are even trying to do shift. The erstwhile means become almost sacred, worthy of pursuing in themselves, often for moral reasons. This can go on for a very long time even though it makes no sense and is painfully retarded.

Germany seems especially prone to endification, probably for cultural reasons stemming from our pathological commitment to thoroughness.

We have to do things longer and harder than everybody else, always with an aura of breathless moral urgency and self-importance. Imagine shades of Covid idiocy happening in many different political domains all the time. Our climate policies have long since become endified, the nuclear phaseout was endified and many aspects of mass migration have been endified.

The brings me to the crazy and ridiculous firewall against the AfD – the unending Antifa-enforced political tabu upon achieving anything with AfD votes at the state or federal level. AfD support is held to be contaminating, regardless of whatever it is the AfD happen to be supporting. It can turn even the most ordinary routine legislation into dark evil malicious fascism.

The firewall against the AfD splits the right and so it is a great gift to the left.

For example, it’s the only reason the SPD has a say in the federal government after their disastrous showing in the traffic light coalition. It’s the only reason the left is still a force in East Germany outside Brandenburg at all. Should we get new elections, the firewall will probably bring the Greens into government too. If it didn’t exist, the left would have to invent it, that is how well the firewall is working out for them.

The AfD also benefits enormously from the firewall, even though it’s not of their making. The last ten years of German politics have been one unending nightmarish festival of failure and stupidity.

All the establishment parties have taken turns implicating themselves in this amazing shitshow, while religiously sparing the AfD any association with their unprecedented failures. The firewall lends truth to the AfD’s name; it has allowed Alternative für Deutschland to become the only conceivable political alternative in Germany. As things get worse and voters grow more desperate for alternatives, the AfD just becomes stronger. The firewall is an AfD-maximising machine.

The firewall is only really bad for the people who invented it and who alone have the power to end it. I speak here of the centre-right Union parties, the CDU and the CSU. They maintain the firewall not because it helps them or because it is a good idea or even because the AfD are evil fascists, but because the firewall has been endified.

In 2018, when the CDU first set up the firewall, it had a coherent purpose. It was supposed to be a means of keeping the AfD small by dissuading CDU supporters from defecting to their upstart rival. CDU leadership had seen how the rising Green Party ate into the support of the SPD after reunification, and they thought they could prevent the same thing from happening to them. They would have been better off doing nothing at all, because after seven years of firewall the AfD are stronger than the Greens ever were. The whole thing has become a lesson in why you should avoid heavy-handed interventions in complex systems and just govern pragmatically with whatever majorities are at hand.

Let us survey the damage: The firewall has helped the AfD supplant the CDU as the standard right-of-centre party across the entire East. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Sachsen-Anhalt, the Evil Hitler Fascists are within striking distance of outright majorities. Ballooning AfD popularity is fuelled by the failures of Merz’s federal government, where the firewall has locked the Union into a doomed coalition with the radicalised and hostile Social Democrats. The SPD have so far obstructed all major federal initiatives, probably for the purpose of hurting the CDU still further and driving them into the arms of the AfD. It is a strategy the left first tried during the federal election campaign, and one they have so far refused to abandon.

Various preeminent Union personalities, eager to stop the destruction of their party, have demanded a change in course. These firewall-rethinkers include former CDU General Secretary Peter Tauber – the very man who played a leading role in devising the firewall strategy in the first place. Shortly after Stern published Tauber’s mild and very careful dissent, a series of CDU politicians from East Germany lined up to say that they, too, would desperately like to see a new approach to the AfD. As I type this, CDU leadership have withdrawn for a highly secret meeting to discuss this dilemma and how they will deal with the AfD in the future.

Alas, endification is a powerful force. You can’t just turn it off. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose political instincts rival those of most earthworms, has used the days and hours ahead of this meeting to sing the praises of the firewall. In response to a journalist’s question last Tuesday, Merz intoned absurdly and for no reason at all that “We are the firewall!” And yesterday, at some political event in Sauerland, he ruled out cooperation with the AfD in any form – “at least not under me as party leader of the CDU.” Merz further claimed that “there is no common ground between the CDU and the AfD” and complained that AfD opposition to the European Union, NATO and the European Monetary Union means that the party “is against everything that has made the Federal Republic of Germany great and strong over the past eight decades.”

An inability to articulate why we have to keep doing a senseless thing, and the proliferation of obviously fake reasons for said senseless thing, are among the most telltale symptoms of endification. Thus I invite you to appreciate how dumb Merz’s arguments are:

Whatever they got us in the past, EU initiatives and NATO-driven foreign policy are killing German industry. EU rules are presently blocking our attempts to increase natural gas power generation, without which our electricity grid will become totally unstable. The EU’s expanded Emissions Trading System (ETS2) from 2027 is set to make heating and transportation wildly more expensive than they have to be for zero reason. None of this is making Germany strong, but that’s not even the half of it. Lest you hope too hard that the AfD can fix any of this, you must remember that they can only govern federally with the CDU, and the Union will never go along with dropping the Euro, withdrawing from the EU or leaving NATO, even if the AfD were clearly demanding these things (which they’re mostly not). Merz’s objections are entirely moot.

The firewall has caused an enormous amount of potential energy to accumulate in the German political system. Only three resolutions are conceivable:

1) The CDU convinces the SPD or other partners on the left to implement some bare minimum of the reforms necessary to slow or even stop deindustrialisation, rein in the runaway costs of the social welfare state and do something about mass migration. This would reduce AfD support, particularly in the West, and ease pressure on the party system more generally.

2) The left parties goad the Union into successfully requesting that the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe ban the AfD. In an instant, the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke would have de facto majorities not only in the Bundestag but across the state parliaments. After this judicial revolution, we would probably find ourselves in a second DDR-style regime, ruled by an unpopular, threatened and highly repressive left.

3) The firewall breaks down and after a substantial internal struggle, the CDU pursues some form of cooperation with the AfD federally. The left parties would turn on the Union across Germany, and the CDU would have to seek outright coalitions or toleration arrangements with the AfD in many state parliaments too. The political realignment would happen suddenly, in less than a few months.

Of these three possibilities, 1) seems stupid and inconceivable. If the left were committed to governing with the Union, they would already be doing that. The nightmare disaster of 2) can only happen if the Union are dumb enough to let it, which indeed is possible, but I still favour 3) as the most likely outcome. At some point, in a way that is as yet unimaginable to us, the firewall will probably come down. The sooner this happens, the better it will be for the CDU. As the Union dithers, they are losing ground they may never regain and all the while more explosive energy is accumulating in the party system.

If Union leadership were minimally rational, they would stop making public statements about how bad the AfD are and begin preparing this strategic shift behind the scenes, with all the bullying, bribing, threatening and coaxing that will require. Ten years of AfD demonisation have made this a mammoth task. But they are not doing that, because endification has made them stupid. They have to make things much, much worse for themselves first, only to end up in the same place two or three years later than they would’ve otherwise – poorer, weaker and worse off.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 03:30

The Rise & Rise Of AfD: Exploring The Unprecedented Political Dumbassery Afoot In The Federal Republic

Authored by 'eugyppius' via A Plague Chronicle,

The firewall is making AfD the strongest party in Germany, artificially empowering the left and destroying the centre-right, who alone can lift it

There’s a subtle, little-discussed but very bizarre political phenomenon that has interested me ever since I started blogging and paying serious attention to politics.

I first noticed it during Covid. Back in those dark days, virus understanders sold measures like lockdowns and masking to the public first as a means of keeping hospitals at capacity by slowing virus infections, then as a means of slowing virus infections just because, and finally as rituals that we had to do more of whenever infections rose, regardless of what effect they had on anything. Mass vaccination followed a nearly identical arc. At first the vaccinators said everyone had to be vaccinated to stop the virus, but by late Autumn 2021 they wanted to vaccinate everybody as much as possible because reasons. In both cases you could see, in real time, the ends towards which we were striving regressing, until finally the means became unquestionable ends in themselves.

I propose to call this phenomenon endification, and I think it is very significant.

It seems to happen whenever you mobilise large, complex systems towards goals that sooner or later prove unattainable. As these goals pass out of reach but the system remains mobilised, basic understandings of what we are even trying to do shift. The erstwhile means become almost sacred, worthy of pursuing in themselves, often for moral reasons. This can go on for a very long time even though it makes no sense and is painfully retarded.

Germany seems especially prone to endification, probably for cultural reasons stemming from our pathological commitment to thoroughness.

We have to do things longer and harder than everybody else, always with an aura of breathless moral urgency and self-importance. Imagine shades of Covid idiocy happening in many different political domains all the time. Our climate policies have long since become endified, the nuclear phaseout was endified and many aspects of mass migration have been endified.

The brings me to the crazy and ridiculous firewall against the AfD – the unending Antifa-enforced political tabu upon achieving anything with AfD votes at the state or federal level. AfD support is held to be contaminating, regardless of whatever it is the AfD happen to be supporting. It can turn even the most ordinary routine legislation into dark evil malicious fascism.

The firewall against the AfD splits the right and so it is a great gift to the left.

For example, it’s the only reason the SPD has a say in the federal government after their disastrous showing in the traffic light coalition. It’s the only reason the left is still a force in East Germany outside Brandenburg at all. Should we get new elections, the firewall will probably bring the Greens into government too. If it didn’t exist, the left would have to invent it, that is how well the firewall is working out for them.

The AfD also benefits enormously from the firewall, even though it’s not of their making. The last ten years of German politics have been one unending nightmarish festival of failure and stupidity.

All the establishment parties have taken turns implicating themselves in this amazing shitshow, while religiously sparing the AfD any association with their unprecedented failures. The firewall lends truth to the AfD’s name; it has allowed Alternative für Deutschland to become the only conceivable political alternative in Germany. As things get worse and voters grow more desperate for alternatives, the AfD just becomes stronger. The firewall is an AfD-maximising machine.

The firewall is only really bad for the people who invented it and who alone have the power to end it. I speak here of the centre-right Union parties, the CDU and the CSU. They maintain the firewall not because it helps them or because it is a good idea or even because the AfD are evil fascists, but because the firewall has been endified.

In 2018, when the CDU first set up the firewall, it had a coherent purpose. It was supposed to be a means of keeping the AfD small by dissuading CDU supporters from defecting to their upstart rival. CDU leadership had seen how the rising Green Party ate into the support of the SPD after reunification, and they thought they could prevent the same thing from happening to them. They would have been better off doing nothing at all, because after seven years of firewall the AfD are stronger than the Greens ever were. The whole thing has become a lesson in why you should avoid heavy-handed interventions in complex systems and just govern pragmatically with whatever majorities are at hand.

Let us survey the damage: The firewall has helped the AfD supplant the CDU as the standard right-of-centre party across the entire East. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Sachsen-Anhalt, the Evil Hitler Fascists are within striking distance of outright majorities. Ballooning AfD popularity is fuelled by the failures of Merz’s federal government, where the firewall has locked the Union into a doomed coalition with the radicalised and hostile Social Democrats. The SPD have so far obstructed all major federal initiatives, probably for the purpose of hurting the CDU still further and driving them into the arms of the AfD. It is a strategy the left first tried during the federal election campaign, and one they have so far refused to abandon.

Various preeminent Union personalities, eager to stop the destruction of their party, have demanded a change in course. These firewall-rethinkers include former CDU General Secretary Peter Tauber – the very man who played a leading role in devising the firewall strategy in the first place. Shortly after Stern published Tauber’s mild and very careful dissent, a series of CDU politicians from East Germany lined up to say that they, too, would desperately like to see a new approach to the AfD. As I type this, CDU leadership have withdrawn for a highly secret meeting to discuss this dilemma and how they will deal with the AfD in the future.

Alas, endification is a powerful force. You can’t just turn it off. Chancellor Friedrich Merz, whose political instincts rival those of most earthworms, has used the days and hours ahead of this meeting to sing the praises of the firewall. In response to a journalist’s question last Tuesday, Merz intoned absurdly and for no reason at all that “We are the firewall!” And yesterday, at some political event in Sauerland, he ruled out cooperation with the AfD in any form – “at least not under me as party leader of the CDU.” Merz further claimed that “there is no common ground between the CDU and the AfD” and complained that AfD opposition to the European Union, NATO and the European Monetary Union means that the party “is against everything that has made the Federal Republic of Germany great and strong over the past eight decades.”

An inability to articulate why we have to keep doing a senseless thing, and the proliferation of obviously fake reasons for said senseless thing, are among the most telltale symptoms of endification. Thus I invite you to appreciate how dumb Merz’s arguments are:

Whatever they got us in the past, EU initiatives and NATO-driven foreign policy are killing German industry. EU rules are presently blocking our attempts to increase natural gas power generation, without which our electricity grid will become totally unstable. The EU’s expanded Emissions Trading System (ETS2) from 2027 is set to make heating and transportation wildly more expensive than they have to be for zero reason. None of this is making Germany strong, but that’s not even the half of it. Lest you hope too hard that the AfD can fix any of this, you must remember that they can only govern federally with the CDU, and the Union will never go along with dropping the Euro, withdrawing from the EU or leaving NATO, even if the AfD were clearly demanding these things (which they’re mostly not). Merz’s objections are entirely moot.

The firewall has caused an enormous amount of potential energy to accumulate in the German political system. Only three resolutions are conceivable:

1) The CDU convinces the SPD or other partners on the left to implement some bare minimum of the reforms necessary to slow or even stop deindustrialisation, rein in the runaway costs of the social welfare state and do something about mass migration. This would reduce AfD support, particularly in the West, and ease pressure on the party system more generally.

2) The left parties goad the Union into successfully requesting that the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe ban the AfD. In an instant, the SPD, the Greens and Die Linke would have de facto majorities not only in the Bundestag but across the state parliaments. After this judicial revolution, we would probably find ourselves in a second DDR-style regime, ruled by an unpopular, threatened and highly repressive left.

3) The firewall breaks down and after a substantial internal struggle, the CDU pursues some form of cooperation with the AfD federally. The left parties would turn on the Union across Germany, and the CDU would have to seek outright coalitions or toleration arrangements with the AfD in many state parliaments too. The political realignment would happen suddenly, in less than a few months.

Of these three possibilities, 1) seems stupid and inconceivable. If the left were committed to governing with the Union, they would already be doing that. The nightmare disaster of 2) can only happen if the Union are dumb enough to let it, which indeed is possible, but I still favour 3) as the most likely outcome. At some point, in a way that is as yet unimaginable to us, the firewall will probably come down. The sooner this happens, the better it will be for the CDU. As the Union dithers, they are losing ground they may never regain and all the while more explosive energy is accumulating in the party system.

If Union leadership were minimally rational, they would stop making public statements about how bad the AfD are and begin preparing this strategic shift behind the scenes, with all the bullying, bribing, threatening and coaxing that will require. Ten years of AfD demonisation have made this a mammoth task. But they are not doing that, because endification has made them stupid. They have to make things much, much worse for themselves first, only to end up in the same place two or three years later than they would’ve otherwise – poorer, weaker and worse off.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 03:30

Europe Generates The Most Electronic Waste

Every person in the world generates on average around 8 kilograms of electronic waste per year worldwide.

However, there are significant regional differences.

As Statista's Valentina Fourreau shows in the chart below, using data from the latest E-Waste Monitor, Europe leads the way with around 17 kilograms of electronic waste per inhabitant, while each person in Africa generates only 2.5 kilograms.

You will find more infographics at Statista

At the same time, Europe has the highest recycling rate at 43 per cent.

Asia and Africa have the most catching up to do, with e-waste recycling rates of 12 and 1 per cent respectively.

Only just under a fifth of the electronic waste generated worldwide is currently officially collected and recycled.

The remaining quantities of electronic waste were collected unofficially, partially recycled or disposed of as residual waste and sent to landfill.

This gap between official and unofficial collection and recycling statistics varies greatly between different regions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 02:45

Europe Generates The Most Electronic Waste

Every person in the world generates on average around 8 kilograms of electronic waste per year worldwide.

However, there are significant regional differences.

As Statista's Valentina Fourreau shows in the chart below, using data from the latest E-Waste Monitor, Europe leads the way with around 17 kilograms of electronic waste per inhabitant, while each person in Africa generates only 2.5 kilograms.

You will find more infographics at Statista

At the same time, Europe has the highest recycling rate at 43 per cent.

Asia and Africa have the most catching up to do, with e-waste recycling rates of 12 and 1 per cent respectively.

Only just under a fifth of the electronic waste generated worldwide is currently officially collected and recycled.

The remaining quantities of electronic waste were collected unofficially, partially recycled or disposed of as residual waste and sent to landfill.

This gap between official and unofficial collection and recycling statistics varies greatly between different regions.

Tyler Durden Mon, 10/20/2025 - 02:45