US Manufacturing Activity "Unexpectedly" Soars To Highest Since 2022

One month after unexpectedly sliding into contraction for the first time in 2025, moments ago the S&P Manufaturing PMI even more unexpectedly soared from 49.8 to 53.3, not only smashing expectations of another decline to 49.7 and printing well above the highest economist forecast and in fact printing 7-sigma above the median estimate...

... but was the highest print since May 2022! According to S&P's PMI report, the surge signaled "a renewed improvement of factory business conditions after a brief deterioration in July." 

At the same time the S&P Services PMI declined from last month's red hot 55.7 to 55.4, but still beat estimates of 54.2. As a result, the composite PMI of US business activity grew at the fastest rate recorded so far this year in August, rising to 55.4 from 55.1, matching the previous post-covid high from Dec 2024 and  adding to signs of a strong third quarter. Output has now grown continually for 31 months, with the latest two months seeing the strongest back-to-back expansions since the spring of 2022. 

According to the report, growth was seen across both manufacturing and service sectors of the economy. Hiring also picked up. Most notably, job creation reached one of the highest rates seen over the past three years as companies reported the largest build-up in uncompleted work since May 2022.

Some more details:

• Production rose for a third successive month, rising at a pace not recorded since May 2022, buoyed by the largest influx of new orders since February 2024.
• Factory employment meanwhile rebounded after a decline in July to register the largest payroll gain since March 2022. Inventories of inputs also rose sharply after a drop in July.
• That left only the suppliers delivery times index acting as a drag on the PMI (reflecting faster deliveries), but to a lesser degree than in July.
• Backlogs rose at an unchanged and therefore joint-steepest rate since May 2022 in the services economy, while manufacturing backlogs also rose to the greatest extent in over three years.
• While many manufacturers reported improved sales and demand, the upturn in production and order inflows was in part linked to renewed inventory building. Stocks of finished goods rose to an extent not previously recorded since data were first available in 2007, while stocks of purchased inputs showed the second-largest rise seen for over three years.
• While stock building was partly fueled by expectations of rising demand, some factories also reported increased safety-stock building amid fears of supply shortages or to protect against further price rises, in turn reflecting the recent impact of import tariffs.

There was more good news when it comes to jobs: employment rose for a sixth successive month, with the pace of job creation hitting the highest since January (and one of the strongest rates seen for over three years). Service providers took on staff at the fastest pace for seven months while factory job gains reached the highest since March 2022. Companies largely took on additional staff in response to rising backlogs of work. Uncompleted orders rose for a fifth consecutive month, rising in August at a pace unsurpassed since May 2022 reflecting stronger demand and near-term capacity constraints at some companies.

There were some concerns on the price side, with tariffs reported as the key driver of further cost increases in August. Companies across both manufacturing and service sectors collectively reported the steepest rise in input prices since May and the second-largest increase since January 2023. Rates of increase accelerated in both sectors. While the manufacturing cost rise was especially large, being the second-steepest since August 2022, the service sector increase was the second-highest since June 2023. Average prices charged for goods and services rose at the sharpest rate since August 2022 as firms passed higher costs on to customers. Although goods price inflation cooled slightly for a second month in a row, it remained among the highest seen over the past three years. Service sector price inflation meanwhile was the sharpest since August 2022.

Business confidence in the outlook also improved but remained much weaker than seen at the start of the year as companies reported ongoing concerns over the impact of government policies, especially in relation to tariffs. Tariffs were again widely cited as the principal cause of sharply higher costs, which in turn fed through to the steepest rise in average selling prices recorded over the past three years. 

Commenting on the report, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said that the "strong flash PMI reading for August adds to signs that US businesses have enjoyed a strong third quarter so far. The data are consistent with the economy expanding at a 2.5% annualized rate, up from the average 1.3% expansion seen over the first two quarters of the year."

“Companies across both manufacturing and services are reporting stronger demand conditions, but are struggling to meet sales growth, causing backlogs of work to rise at a pace not seen since the pandemic-related capacity constraints recorded in early 2022. Stock building of finished goods has also risen at a survey record pace, linked in part to worries over future supply conditions."

 “While this upturn in demand has fueled a surge in hiring, it has also bolstered firms’ pricing power. Companies have consequently passed tariff-related cost increases through to customers in increasing numbers, indicating that inflation pressures are now at their highest for three years."

 As a result, the economist concludes that the "rise in selling prices for goods and services suggests that consumer price inflation will rise further above the Fed’s 2% target in the coming months. Indeed, combined with the upturn in business activity and hiring, the rise in prices signaled by the survey puts the PMI data more into rate hiking, rather than cutting, territory according to the historical relationship between these economic indicators and FOMC policy changes.”

In other words, the report coming unexpectedly strong, may be just an attempt by the traditionally anti-Trumpian S&P to pressure the Fed into maintaining a hawkish bias even as the labor market - at least as measured by most other 3rd parties - continues to deteriorate. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 10:13

FDA Warns Public Over Potentially Radioactive Walmart Shrimp

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Tuesday told the U.S. public not to eat, sell, or serve certain imported Walmart frozen shrimp produced by an Indonesian company because it may have been exposed to a radioactive material.

Health officials said in a statement that it is investigating reports of Cesium-137 contamination in shipping containers as well as shrimp products that were processed by Indonesia-based PT. Bahari Makmur Sejati, also known as BMS Food.

The shrimp was sold in Walmart locations in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas, and West Virginia, according to a notice from the FDA.

“If you recently purchased one of the impacted lots of Great Value raw frozen shrimp from Walmart, throw it away,” the FDA said in the notice. “Do not eat or serve this product.”

Retailers and distributors in the United States are also advised to dispose of the frozen shrimp product and should not serve it, the agency added.

The FDA also advised people who believe they may have been exposed to Cesium-137, a radioactive isotope of the element cesium that can increase the risk of cancer in people, that they should speak with a health care provider.

Cesium-137 is a byproduct of nuclear reactions, including nuclear bombs, testing, reactor operations, and accidents. It’s widespread around the world, with trace amounts found in the environment, including soil, food, and air.

Elevated amounts of the radioactive isotope may be present in high-contamination areas, including Chernobyl, Ukraine, in 1986, and Fukushima, Japan, in 2011, after nuclear plant disasters, the FDA has said.

The FDA recommended that Walmart recall the Great Value brand frozen shrimp from stores after federal officials detected Cesium-137 in shipping containers and a sample of breaded shrimp imported from Indonesia, the FDA also said.

The level detected in the frozen breaded Walmart shrimp was far lower than FDA intervention levels. However, the agency said that avoiding potentially contaminated products could reduce exposure to low-level radiation that could lead to health problems over time.

The Epoch Times contacted Walmart for comment on Wednesday.

Walmart immediately recalled the products, a company spokesperson told news outlets this week. Consumers should discard the products or return them to any Walmart store for a refund, the spokesperson added.

According to the FDA notice, the impacted products include Great Value brand frozen raw shrimp, lot code: 8005540-1, Best by Date: 3/15/2027; Great Value brand frozen raw shrimp, lot code: 8005538-1, Best by Date: 3/15/2027; and Great Value brand frozen raw shrimp, lot code: 8005539-1, Best by Date: 3/15/2027.

Symptoms of radiation sickness can include nausea, vomiting, diarrhea, fever, fatigue, low blood pressure, infections, hair loss, weakness and fatigue, and mental changes, according to the Mayo Clinic.

Last week, the FDA issued an import alert for PT. Bahari Makmur Sejati for all shrimp products imported into the United States, while the agency said in its Tuesday notice that the Indonesian company was “added to the red list of this alert” to ensure “that no implicated shrimp products will enter U.S. commerce until the company resolves the conditions that gave rise to the appearance of the violation.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 10:10

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 2.0% Increase in July

Existing-home sales increased by 2.0% in July, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Existing-Home Sales Report. ...

Month-over-month sales increased in the Northeast, South, and West, and fell in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in the South, Northeast, and Midwest, and fell in the West. ...

• 2.0% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million in July.

• Year-over-year: 0.8% increase in existing-home sales

• 0.6% increase in unsold inventory – 1.55 million units equal to 4.6 months' supply.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in July (4.01 million SAAR) were up 2.0% from the previous month and were up 0.8% compared to the July 2024 sales rate.  
The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.55 million in July from 1.54 million the previous month.
Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 15.7% year-over-year (blue) in July compared to July 2024.

Months of supply (red) decreased to 4.6 months in July from 4.7 months the previous month.

I'll have more later. 

Bullard Backs 100bps In 2025 Rate Cuts In Hopes Of Replacing Powell

With candidates hoping to replace Jerome Powell coming up with increasingly dovish - not to mention - plans on how to attract Trump's attention and jump in the lead earlier this morning, former St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, who has emerged a long-shot contender for the next US central bank chief, called for a percentage point of interest-rate cuts this year, with scope to do more in 2026.

“Rates are a little bit high right now, and I think we can get down about 100 basis points going into 2026 — I think that’ll start with a rate reduction here at the September meeting, and probably be followed up later this year,” Bullard said on Fox Business Thursday.

Bullard, now dean of Purdue University’s business school, said he’d been in contact with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about his candidacy for Fed chair, and is aiming to set up an interview with him, “probably” after Labor Day — which falls on Sept. 1.

As for further rate cuts next year, Bullard said it will depend on how data come in. He also cited the need to protect the reserve status of the dollar.

Unfortunately for Bullard, he remains dead last in the Polymarket Powell-replacement sweepstakes, and he will have to either push for NIRP or, even better, Yield Curve Control if he hopes to have any real chance of getting Trump to notice him. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 09:47

US, EU Release Details Of Trade Deal

The US and European Union finally laid out the details of their recently announced trade deal which reduces tariffs on European automobiles while opening the door to new potential discounts for steel and aluminum.

The joint statement issued this morning represents an advancement of the preliminary deal announced a month ago, and includes specific benchmarks for the EU to secure its promised sectoral tariff discounts on cars, pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, as well as new commitments for addressing the bloc’s digital services regulations.

Trump had repeatedly praised the sweeping US-EU trade framework, extolling it as “a big deal” in a Monday White House meeting with foreign leaders including European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. 

The development underscores the nature of trade talks under Trump, with some initial, broad pronouncements of deals giving way to weeks or more of work to hammer out detailed agreements. Many of them are also tied to sweeping policy changes that could take time to materialize.

For example, Trump already imposed a flat 15% rate on most European goods, half the 30% he’d previously threatened. But the US promise to extend that lower levy to autos and auto parts now hinges on the EU formally introducing a legislative proposal to eliminate a host of its own tariffs on US industrial goods and provide “preferential market access” for some US seafood and agricultural products.

Below we summarize the highlights from the deal:

• US to levy 15% tariff on most EU imports, including autos, pharmaceuticals, semiconductor chips and lumber.
• US and EU to consider steps to ensure secure supply chains, including tariff rate-quota solutions.
• US and EU commit to address ‘unjustified digital trade barriers,’ with EU agreeing not to adopt network usage fees.
• US and EU to consider cooperation on ring-fencing domestic steel and aluminum markets from overcapacity.
• US and EU to negotiate rules of origin to ensure the trade agreement benefits predominantly both partners.
• EU companies to invest an additional USD 600bln across US strategic sectors through 2028.
• EU intends to procure USD 750bln in US LNG, oil and nuclear energy products, plus at least USD 40bln of US AI chips.
• From September 1, US to apply only MFN tariffs on EU aircraft and parts, generic pharmaceuticals, ingredients, chemical precursors and unavailable natural resources.
• US will lower tariffs on autos and auto parts when EU introduces legislation to enact tariff reductions.
• EU intends to eliminate tariffs on all US industrial goods and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural goods.
• Senior US official expects tariff relief for EU automakers to come in 'hopefully weeks.*
• US and EU release joint statement locking in details of trade deal reached last month.

Tariffs: 

• 15% on most goods (vs 30% threatened)
• 15% on Autos (prev. 25%)
• 15% on Pharma + Chips
• US will retain a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminium
• Zero-for-zero tariffs have been agreed for some agricultural products, aircraft component parts, and certain chemical
• No final agreement has been reached yet on tariffs for spirits
• Aircraft exports are temporarily exempt from tariffs pending the outcome of a US investigation

EU Investments

• EU will invest USD 600bln in the US, including in military equipment
• EU will purchase USD 750bln worth of US energy, mainly LNG

As Bloomberg reports, the statement outlines choreographed action on both sides of the Atlantic, with the US codifying reduced auto tariffs once the EU “formally introduces the necessary legislative proposal to enact” its own promised tariff reductions. The discounted 15% tariffs on European auto imports, lower than a 27.5% Trump previously imposed on them, would be effective from the start of the same month that legislation is advanced. 

They could be in place within weeks, said a senior Trump administration official who briefed reporters on the initiative. The shift has been anxiously anticipated by some EU member states, particularly Germany, which exported $34.9 billion of new cars and auto parts to the US in 2024.

The legislative trigger is designed to help ensure the EU delivers on its promised tariff reductions — and ensure the 27-nation bloc has sufficient pressure to obtain the political mandate needed to make the changes, the administration official said. 

Meanwhile, the US is committing to apply lower most-favored-nation tariffs to a slew of other European products — including aircraft and aircraft parts, generic pharmaceuticals and their ingredients and some natural resources such as cork. The US is also renewing its commitment to cap sectoral tariffs on European pharmaceutical products, semiconductors and lumber at 15%. 

It’s also opening the prospect for discounted rates on some steel, aluminum and derivative products under a quota system. That’s a shift from the White House’s stated plans in July, when the Trump administration insisted those metal tariffs would remain at 50%, helping to lower trade deficits with the EU and bring revenue to US coffers. 

On steel and aluminum, the EU and US now assert they “intend to consider the possibility to cooperate on ring-fencing their respective domestic markets from overcapacity, while ensuring secure supply chains between each other,” according to the joint statement. 

As discussed here before, the document raises major questions about how the EU might fulfill its promise to invest $600 billion in the US or purchase some $750 billion in US energy resources, including liquefied natural gas, oil and nuclear power products. through 2028.

Private sector investments by European companies would be expected across strategic sectors in the US, including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and advanced manufacturing, the senior administration official said. Meanwhile, the EU plans to substantially increase procurement of military and defense equipment from the US, according to the statement, and intends to buy at least $40 billion worth of US artificial intelligence chips.

According to the joint statement, the EU intends to provide preferential market access for seafood and non-sensitive agricultural goods imported from the US, including tree nuts, certain dairy products, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, processed foods, planting seeds, soybean oil, and pork and bison meat.

In recent weeks, deliberations over the EU’s digital services regulations and potential relief for some goods — including wine and spirits - were seen prolonging talks. The EU didn’t secure lower rates for alcohol in the joint statement.
But the US and EU are pledging to address some of what the statement calls “unjustified digital trade barriers,” with the bloc confirming that it will “not adopt or maintain network usage fees.” 

The EU has committed to work toward providing more “flexibilities” in its levy on carbon-intensive imports set to kick in next year, the statement said, and it will seek to ensure its corporate sustainability due diligence and reporting requirements don’t pose “undue restrictions on transatlantic trade.” 

Potential changes could include eased compliance requirements for small- and medium-sized businesses, according to the statement. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 09:30

Robbed, Punched, And Pistol-Whipped - A White House Reporter's Account Of Crime In DC

Authored by Iris Tao via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

The latest move by the White House to crack down on crime in Washington prompted me to reflect on a harrowing moment from my own life - the morning I was robbed at gunpoint just steps from my apartment.

White House reporter Iris Tao at the White House in Washington on March 26, 2025. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

It was 8:30 a.m. on a Saturday in January 2022. I had just left my building near The Wharf in Southwest D.C. when a man in a black ski mask appeared out of nowhere, pointed a gun at my face, and demanded my phone.

“Give me your phone,” he barked as he snatched it from my jacket pocket.

Then, with cold precision, he ordered me to hand over my wallet, laptop, and phone password.

Before fear even set in, instinct kicked in—not to protect my belongings, but to protect the sensitive information I carried. As a White House reporter for NTD Television, the sister outlet of The Epoch Times, I felt an overwhelming duty to safeguard my sources, colleagues, and loved ones.

“I can’t,” I said. “Don’t do this.”

He struck me across the face with the butt of his handgun.

My cheek went numb and flushed red.

“Help! Help!” I screamed as he ran off. A neighbor called the police. Later, an officer told me the assailant had fled into an apartment just a block away. They believed they knew who he was—but I never heard from them again.

I stayed surprisingly composed during the attack, but once I got back inside, the fear set in. He could have shot me. I could have died—just as my career was beginning. My parents and now-husband were hundreds of miles away.

I grew up in New York City and considered myself street-smart. Crime statistics had always been just numbers. I walked the streets of Queens and Manhattan alone, day or night. That Saturday morning shattered that confidence.

It’s been more than two years. Since then, I’ve never walked the streets of D.C. alone at night. I Uber home every day—even though my office is within walking distance. I’m on high alert after dark, whether I’m working or just meeting friends. Fear lives around every corner.

I didn’t tell my grandparents what happened until a year later—I was afraid it would devastate them and convince them I should leave D.C. entirely. Truthfully, I still love this city. But the scar of that morning lingers.

So when friends ask, “Is D.C. safe?” I don’t just share the stats. I share what happened to me.

Officially, the Metropolitan Police Department says violent crime is down 35 percent from its 2023 peak, and city leaders say we’re near a 30-year low. But lived experience tells a different story.

Last year alone, D.C. reported 29,348 crimes, including:

• 3,469 violent offenses
• 1,026 assaults with a dangerous weapon
• 2,113 robberies

That’s thousands of families like mine, who have endured the trauma and aftermath of violence.

Some experts say not all crimes are even reported. Others point to claims that police leadership under-reported data to make the numbers look better. One thing, however, is hard to manipulate: the homicide rate.

In 2024, D.C.’s homicide rate was 27.3 per 100,000 residents—the fourth-highest in the country, and more than double the rate from just a decade ago.

So far in 2025, there have been more than 100 homicides.

Among the victims:

• Three-year-old Honesty Cheadle, shot while sitting in a car with her family after Fourth of July fireworks.
• 21-year-old Capitol Hill intern Eric Tarpinian-Jachym, killed while walking through Northwest D.C. one evening.
• And just hours after President Trump declared a public safety emergency on August 12, a 33-year-old man was shot and killed in Logan Circle—less than a mile from the White House.

These are not just numbers. Each one is a person. A life cut short. A family changed forever.

As national debate swirls around crime in the capital and whether National Guard troops should patrol its streets, I hope we remember the human cost behind every statistic.

I’m expecting my first child at the end of this year. And we’ve decided we won’t stay in D.C.—not until both the numbers and the stories prove the city has truly changed.

As a new mom, I want my son to grow up in a place where he can walk freely, play safely, and live without fear. I think most parents want the same.

And I hope—someday—we can live that vision here in our nation’s capital: a clean, beautiful, and truly shining city on a hill once again.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 09:15

Initial Claims Unexpectedly Jump As Continuing Claims Surge To Four-Year Highs On Deep Tri-State Misery

One week after initial claims printed at the same level (224k) where they were at in Nov 2021 (with non-seasonally adjusted claims hovering near record lows), moments ago the BLS reported that claims jumped in the last week, rising by 11k to 235K, the highest since June 20. Curiously the jump in seasonally adjusted claims took place even as unadjusted claims dipped to 2025 lows.

A breakdown of initial claims by state does not show any dramatic outliers: Kentucky saw the biggest increase in initial claims, up almost 2K, while claims in California dropped by 1,948.

Meanwhile, the relentless rise in continuing jobless claims continues, and in the latest week rose to 1.972 million, up from 1942 million, and above the 1.960 million expected; it was also the highest print since the covid crash.

The silver lining (if that's what one would call it) is the continuing jobless claims across the Deep TriState keep rising...

Must may be gone, but DOGE is still taking deep state coup-plotter scalps. 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 08:51

"Too Expensive And Risky": Bed Bath & Beyond Explains Why It Won’t Operate Stores In "Overregulated" California

Authored by Jill McLaughlin via The Epoch Times,

The chairman of the resurrected home goods chain Bed Bath & Beyond announced on Aug. 20 that the company would not open or operate retail stores in California, calling it overregulated, expensive, and risky.

“This decision isn’t about politics—it’s about reality,” company head Marcus Lemonis said in a social media post.

“California has created one of the most overregulated, expensive, and risky environments for businesses in America. It’s a system that makes it harder to employ people, harder to keep doors open, and harder to deliver value to customers.”

Lemonis—the executive chairman of Beyond, Inc., which owns Bed Bath & Beyond—claimed that the state’s regulations result in higher taxes, fees, and wages that many businesses can’t sustain. The regulations strangle growth, he said.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s office did not express concern about the retailer’s announcement in a response following the company’s announcement.

“After their bankruptcy and closure of every store, like most Americans, we thought Bed, Bath & Beyond no longer existed,” Newsom’s spokesperson, Tara Gallegos, told The Epoch Times in an email.

“We wish them well in their efforts to become relevant again as they try to open a 2nd [sic] store.”

Bed Bath & Beyond, founded in 1971, expanded to become a U.S. retail icon of home goods, experiencing significant growth.

In 2023, the company filed for bankruptcy, closing hundreds of stores after years of dismal sales and several attempts to turn the struggling business around. The company was purchased by online retailer Overstock.com and transitioned to an online-only presence.

Bed Bath & Beyond closed all 41 of its California stores, along with all other U.S. locations, in July 2023.

The retailer’s parent company, The Brand House Collective, announced a grand opening of its first Bed Bath & Beyond Home store in Nashville set for Aug. 8. The company’s shareholders approved the move in July.

“We’re proud to reintroduce one of retail’s most iconic names with the launch of Bed Bath & Beyond Home, beautifully reimagined for how families gather at home today,” Amy Sullivan, CEO of The Brand House Collective, said in a statement on July 28.

“This isn’t just a store, it’s a fresh start for a brand that means something special to so many families.”

The store also brought back its popular Beth Bath & Beyond coupons as it celebrated the grand opening.

Bed Bath & Beyond is investing in an alternative California strategy, according to Lemonis.

The company will offer 24 hour to 48 hour delivery to customers, and in many cases will deliver on the same day of purchase.

A Bed Bath & Beyond store in Los Angeles on April 10, 2013. The company closed its 41 California outlets in 2023. Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Californians can continue to get products directly through the company’s website “on our terms, and with their best interest at heart,” but without the extra costs imposed by California’s taxes and regulations, according to Lemonis.

“We’re taking a stand because it’s time for common sense,” he said.

“Businesses deserve the chance to succeed. Employees deserve jobs that last. And customers deserve fair prices. California’s system delivers the opposite.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 08:45

The DOL reported:

In the week ending August 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 235,000, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 226,250, an increase of 4,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 221,750.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 226,250.

The previous week was unrevised.

Weekly claims were above the consensus forecast.

Futures Slide For Fifth Day As Jackson Hole Jitters Rise

US equity futures dropped, extending the recent selloff into its fifth day, as traders stayed guarded ahead of the Federal Reserve’s gathering at Jackson Hole. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures fell 0.2%, while Nasdaq 100 futures were flat after a two-day selloff that erased 2% off the index. In premarket trading, Nvidia rose 0.8% while most Magnificent Seven peers posted losses. Retail giant Walmart brought Q2 earnings season to an unofficial close after reporting an EPS miss (68c vs exp. 74c) and even though it lifted guidance (now expects net sales to rise 3.75% to 4.75% this year, versus previous forecast of a 3% to 4%) that wasn't enough for the market, however, and the stock dropped in premarket trading. European stocks dropped 0.3%, erasing an earlier gain, and snapping a three-day winning streak. US treasuries fell, pushing the yield on the 10-year higher to 4.31%. The dollar strengthened and reversed all of yesterday's losses while Brent crude rose to the highest in two weeks even as the rest of the commodity complex was mixed. It's a busy economic calendar: we get weekly jobless claims and August Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am) and July leading index and existing home sales (10am). The Fed speaker slate includes Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 7:30am, the last central bank official slated to speak before Chair Powell’s discourse at Jackson Hole Friday

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.8%, Tesla unchanged, Microsoft -0.1%, Alphabet -0.2%, Amazon -0.3%, Meta -0.3%, Apple -0.5%). Here are some other notable premarket movers: 

• Aegon ADRs (AEG) are up 5% after the Dutch insurance company posted better-than-expected results and said it planned to increase its share buyback. Management said the company may redomicile to the US, a move that Morgan Stanley said would “make sense.”
• Boeing Co. (BA) gains 1.5% as the company is heading closer toward finalizing a deal with China to sell as many as 500 aircraft, according to people familiar with the matter.
• Canadian Solar (CSIQ) falls 11% after forecasting third-quarter revenue below analyst expectations.
• Coty (COTY) falls 20% after the personal care products company forecast steep sales declines and reported a wider-than-expected loss for the fourth quarter.
• Dayforce (DAY) rises 1.4% after entering into a definitive agreement with Thoma Bravo to become a privately held company in an all-cash transaction with an enterprise value of $12.3 billion.
• Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) gains 3.1% after being raised to overweight from equal-weight at Morgan Stanley as analysts note that recently-closed Juniper deal will be an earnings upside.
• SharkNinja (SN) trades lower by 2% as holders affiliated with Chairperson CJ Xuning Wang offer 5 million shares in the household-appliance maker via JPMorgan, BofA Securities.
• Two Harbors Investment (TWO) falls 3% after the mortgage REIT resolved litigation with Pine River via a one-time $375m cash settlement and cut its quarterly dividend to 34c a share.
• Walmart (WMT) slips 2.4% after the world’s largest retailer posted second quarter profit that disappointed.

In corporate news, FanDuel, the online gambling division of Flutter Entertainment, is teaming up with CME Group, the largest US derivatives exchange, to offer bets on stocks, commodity prices and even inflation. Google introduced a new slate of consumer gadgets, including several smartphones, a watch and new wireless earbuds, all meant to show off the company’s latest advances in artificial intelligence. Musk‘s Starlink service is said to be in conversation with Emirates and other Middle Eastern airlines, with winning business in the region potentially marking a watershed moment in Starlink’s global competition. 

This week has seen pressure on momentum names (read tech stocks) particularly the largest names, amid worries that their sharp rally since April has moved too far, too fast. Traders are also cautious as the Jackson Hole symposium kicks off later today, with investors awaiting Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at 10am ET Friday for guidance on the path for interest rates. Despite the pullback in stocks this week, the VIX hasn’t really budged, and Goldman said it’s time to buy the dip in momentum stocks (and the overall market according to JPMorgan).

The market’s direction today will also be shaped by PMIs, home sales data and Walmart earnings (which missed but boosted its revenue forecast). For the euro area, the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index compiled by S&P Global grew at the quickest pace in 15 months as manufacturing exited a three-year downturn.

“What we are currently seeing is profit-taking and a natural flight to quality ahead of Jerome Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole,” said John Plassard, head of investment strategy at Cité Gestion. But “let’s not beat around the bush: this is not the end of tech, and even less so for stocks linked to artificial intelligence.”

Swaps are currently pricing in 80% chance of a Fed quarter-point cut in September, and at least three more over the next year, some strategists warned that the market may be too optimistic about the pace and depth of easing.

“All it’s going to take is a bit of stickiness in inflation and actually a labor market print which shows it’s not falling off a cliff for the market to say, ‘hang on,’” Karen Ward, chief market strategist for EMEA at JPMorgan Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV.

In his latest effort to stack the Fed board, Trump and his allies are demanding Fed Governor Lisa Cook resign over alleged owner-occupancy fraud. For her part, Cook signaled her intention to remain at the central bank.

Yesterday, the latest FOMC Minutes for the July 29-30 meeting showed most officials viewed inflation risks as outweighing labor-market concerns, with tariffs fueling a growing divide within the rate-setting committee, though the discussions came before subsequent dramatic dire revisions to jobs data.

On the geopolitical front, US Vice President JD Vance said negotiations over ending Russia’s war in Ukraine are focused on security guarantees for Ukraine and territory Russia wants to control — including Ukrainian territory that Russia isn’t occupying — as the US tries to broker a peace deal between the two nations. Brent crude rose 0.8%.

The Stoxx 600 falls 0.2% with media, consumer product and chemical shares leading declines. Nordics represented several of the region’s biggest movers, with hearing-aid maker GN Store Nord surging 19% after reporting earnings, while Norwegian oil firm Aker BP jumped after a large oil find in the North Sea. UK retailer WH Smith plunged after signaling North American profit will be much weaker than previously hoped. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Aegon shares jump as much as 7.4%, reaching a 10-year high, after the Dutch insurance company posted better-than-expected results and said it planned to increase its share buyback
• GN Store Nord gains as much as 19% after the Danish hearing aid and audio equipment firm’s 2Q earnings beat estimates across the board. Analysts see a strong showing following weaker reports from European peers
• Aker BP shares rise as much as 4.6% after the Norwegian industrial investment company announced a “significant oil discovery” as it completed the Omega Alfa exploration campaign in the Norwegian North Sea
• ALK-Abello gains as much as 5.9%, the most since May, after the Danish allergy drugmaker reported 2Q earnings. Analysts say that while the report holds few surprises after the company pre-released figures, they reassured
• Salmar gains as much as 6.1%, the most since April, after the Norwegian salmon firm reported its latest earnings, which DNB Carnegie described as in line, with “positive” cost and volume guidance for the rest of the year
• DNO gains as much as 11%, the most since 2023, after the Norwegian oil company reported its latest earnings and hiked its dividend per share by around 20%. DNB Carnegie expects the raised payouts to support the shares
• Renishaw shares rise as much as 8.9% to the highest since February after the precision measuring equipment maker indicated its adjusted pretax profit for the full year will be at the high end of the guidance range
• WH Smith shares plummet as much as 38%, the biggest drop on record, after the retailer warned headline trading profit from North America will be significantly lower than previously hoped
• CTS Eventim shares slide as much as 20%, the most since 2007, after the events firm reported 2Q Ebitda well below estimates. The firm cited “intense and persistent cost pressures” for live events and headwinds in other divisions
• Novonesis falls as much as 7.8% after the Danish biotechnology group reported earnings. Analysts say a profitability miss and merely reiterated margin guidance disappointed, and will lead to slight consensus cuts
• European stocks in the beauty and personal care sector fell after US company Coty reported a wider adjusted loss per share in 4Q than analysts expected, while forecasting steep sales declines will continue
• Sensirion falls as much as 8.2% after both Berenberg and Research Partners downgraded the semiconductor device manufacturer to hold from buy following its first-half earnings
• UK housebuilders are under pressure on Thursday as London builders are taking longer to start home constructions after receiving permits, with a slump in demand threatening to derail the government’s plan to build 1.5m homes
• Kojamo declines as much as 5.9% following its second-quarter results, with JPMorgan retaining its underweight rating and a cautious stance on the real estate company

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded in a tight range, as a rebound in some tech stocks was offset by declines in Japan. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2%, with Japan’s Daiichi Sankyo among the top drags after a series of block trades at a discount. Hon Hai and TSMC were among the biggest boosts for the gauge. Shares hit a record high in Australia, while those in South Korea and Taiwan also advanced.  Investors are awaiting cues from the Jackson Hole symposium, where Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Friday. Nvidia’s results next week will be another key test, with expectations for improving global tech earnings having bolstered sentiment. Equities also traded higher in mainland China, Vietnam and New Zealand on Thursday. MSCI equity gauges for every nation in the region are trading above their 200-day moving averages for the first time since 2021, according to Sentimentrader.com.

In FX, the euro and pound both edge higher against the greenback after the better-than-expected PMI data. The Norwegian krone is the best-performing G-10 currency, rising 0.5% after Norway’s GDP grew more than forecast in the second quarter.

In rates, treasuries are under pressure in early US trading amid steeper losses for most European bond markets sparked by stronger-than-anticipated August preliminary PMI gauges. US yields are higher by 1bp-2bp, the 10-year by about 1.8bp at 4.31%, vs increases of 3bp-4bp for UK and most euro-zone counterparts. US session features 30-year TIPS reopening auction at 1pm New York time. Week’s major focal point is Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday. UK gilts are leading declines in European government bonds after the UK private sector expanded at the strongest pace in 12 months. UK 10-year yields rise 3 bps to 4.70%. German 10-year borrowing costs add 2 bps to 2.73% after the euro area’s private sector grew at the quickest pace in 15 months.

Looking at today's calendar, US economic data calendar includes weekly jobless claims and August Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), August preliminary S&P Global US PMIs (9:45am) and July leading index and existing home sales (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 7:30am, the last central bank official slated to speak before Chair Powell’s discourse at Jackson Hole Friday

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini -0.1%
• Nasdaq 100 mini little changed
• Russell 2000 mini -0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
• DAX -0.1%
• CAC 40 -0.5%
• 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.3%
• VIX +0.2 points at 15.93
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.17
• euro little changed at $1.1658
• WTI crude +1% at $63.35/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Fed reserve governor Lisa Cook has defied calls from Trump to resign, saying she has “no intention of being bullied to step down” after FHFA Director Bill Pulte posted he was making a criminal referral based on a mortgage application from four years ago: FT
• The Texas House approved a new congressional map that may add up to five GOP seats in the 2026 midterms. In California, the state’s top court declined to halt Governor Gavin Newsom’s own redistricting plan, which he’s pursuing to offset the moves in Texas and elsewhere. BBG
• Meta Platforms has frozen hiring in its artificial-intelligence division after spending months scooping up 50-plus AI researchers and engineers. WSJ
• South Korea will unveil an additional $150 billion in US investment from private firms during Lee Jae Myung’s summit with Trump, local media said. BBG
• The euro area’s private sector expanded at the quickest pace in 15 months, PMI data showed, adding to evidence of the region’s resilience. Manufacturing ended a three-year downturn despite higher US levies. UK composite PMI also rose more than expected. BBG
• China is aggressively trying to persuade domestic tech firms to avoid buying Nvidia chips following “insulting” remarks from Commerce Sec Lutnick. FT
• Japan’s 20-year yields hit their highest since 1999 amid fiscal concerns and fading demand from key investors. Yields on 30-year notes approached a new high. BBG
• India’s flash PMIs for Aug are strong, including manufacturing (59.8, up from 59.1 in Jul) and especially services (65.6, a big jump from 60.5 in Jul). S&P
• Russia warned on Wednesday that it should effectively hold veto power over any action to assist Ukraine after a peace deal is reached, rendering planned Western security guarantees for Kyiv moot and delivering a setback to negotiations championed by President Trump. Russia’s Lavrov also played down likelihood of a summit between Russia/Ukraine leaders happening soon. WSJ

Trade/Tariffs

• China’s Commerce Minister talked with Kazakhstan’s Trade Minister and said China is ready to work with Kazakhstan to promote the upgrading of bilateral trade, while China is ready to strengthen cooperation in emerging fields and accelerate the cultivation of new trade formats.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed, albeit with a mildly positive bias as the region attempted to shrug off the lacklustre lead from Wall St, where sentiment was dampened amid continued tech weakness and hawkish-leaning FOMC Minutes. ASX 200 outperformed amid a slew of earnings releases and breached the 9,000 level for the first time in history. Nikkei 225 was dragged lower by weakness in pharmaceuticals and automakers, with the latter not helped by reports that Japanese automakers are passing some of the expense of US tariffs through to American car buyers, which is a change from their strategy of absorbing the impact. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed with the Hong Kong benchmark led lower by underperformance in tech stocks including Baidu and Xiaomi, despite both recently reporting a jump in profits, while the mainland remained propped up following the PBoC's liquidity efforts.

Top Asian News

• Asian petrochemicals shares rise as China is set to launch a sweeping overhaul of its petrochemicals and oil refining sector to phase out smaller facilities and target outdated operations for upgrades.
• Chinese biomedical shares rise after Premier Li Qiang toured company sites and emphasized the need to increase scientific and technological backing as well as policy support for the sector.
• Chinese crypto-linked stocks rally after a report that the government is considering a plan for expanded yuan use and stablecoins.
• Sonic Healthcare shares slide as much as 10%, the most since May 2024, after the Australian diagnostics and pathology firm reported net income for the full year that missed the average analyst estimate.
• South Korea’s Financial Services Commission urges financial firms to provide necessary support in the course of the nation’s petrochemical industry restructuring, according to a statement from the financial regulator.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) are trading with little in the way of a clear bias. Geopolitical tensions resurfaced early doors after Ukraine's Air Force stated that Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack. Focus also on EZ PMIs which saw the saw the composite move further into expansionary territory. European equity sectors show a mostly negative tilt with stock-specific updates relatively light. Energy names sit at the top of the leaderboard amid upside in underlying crude prices. To the downside, Media names lag with Wolters Kluwer (-2.2%) a notable underperformer in the sector following a PT reduction at Morgan Stanley.

Top European News

• The euro area’s private sector expanded at the quickest pace in 15 months, PMI data showed, adding to evidence of the region’s resilience. Manufacturing ended a three-year downturn despite higher US levies. UK composite PMI also rose more than expected. 

FX

• Steady trade for DXY after a session yesterday, which was dominated by newsflow surrounding the Fed. US rates markets endured a steepening of the curve, led by the front-end amid reporting that President Trump could fire Fed Governor Cook amid alleged mortgage fraud. Thereafter, attention pivoted to the account of the July policy announcement, which was viewed with a hawkish lens. DXY sits towards the mid-point of Wednesday's 98.07-44 range.
• EUR saw some pressure early doors after comments from Ukraine's Air Force that Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack. This has helped reinforce the message that despite a more encouraging direction of travel for peace talks, the reality on the ground remains tense between Russia and Ukraine. Some of the pessimism was faded following flash PMI metrics from across the Eurozone with a solid report from France kickstarting the recovery and followed by a mostly positive German release. The EZ-wide print saw the composite move further into expansionary territory. EUR/USD sits just above its 50DMA at 1.1645.
• JPY is fractionally weaker vs. the USD after a session of gains on Wednesday, which were in part driven by a refocus on interest-rate differentials as the front-end of the US curve was dragged lower by the possibility of Fed Governor Cook being removed from her position. Overnight, there was little follow-through seen from mixed flash Japanese PMI metrics for August, which saw the manufacturing metric tick higher from its prior (but remain sub-50) and services fall from its previous (but remain above 50). USD/JPY sits within Wednesday's 146.87-147.81.
• GBP is the marginal outperformer across the majors following a better-than-expected outturn for flash August services and composite PMIs, which rose further into expansionary territory. Cable has picked up from its 1.3436 session low with a current session peak at 1.3476.
• Antipodeans are both are a touch softer vs. the USD with NZD unable to launch much of a recovery from Wednesday's RBNZ-induced losses and AUD failing to garner any support from upticks in flash PMI metrics for August. AUD/USD is at its lowest level since June 23rd with focus on a test of the 0.64 mark and the 200DMA @ 0.6386.

Fixed Income

• USTs began the European session around the unchanged mark, with price action fairly tentative in a continuation of the lacklustre trade seen overnight. As the European morning kicked off, trade has largely been dictated by Bunds, which have had a number of regional PMIs to digest (more in Bunds below). US paper currently trades lower by a handful of ticks, in a 111-24 to 111-29 range, currently contained within the prior day's confines. Looking ahead, weekly initial jobless claims and US PMIs alongside Fed speak from Bostic and Schmid.
• Bund Sept’25 started the European session around the unchanged mark and then slipped on both the French and then German PMI metrics, which overall highlighted the ongoing strength in the Manufacturing sector, whilst Services was a little more subdued. The EZ wide figure confirmed the strong Manufacturing / slightly softer Services picture, with the former surprisingly climbing into expansionary territory. In terms of the commentary, it highlighted that “U.S. trade policy is leaving its mark. Foreign orders in the eurozone manufacturing sector have declined for the second month in a row”.
• Gilts traded subdued throughout the European morning, taking leads from the hotter-than-expected PMI metrics in Europe. Into the region’s own figures, UK paper traded lower by around 15 ticks. Thereafter, on the region’s own PMI metrics, Gilts fell from 90.99 to 90.91 before trimming half of the move; currently trading in a 90.82 to 91.22 range. Unlike in Europe, the upside in Composite was thanks to strength in the Services sector whilst Manufacturing was subdued. It is worth highlighting that the accompanying release was fairly downbeat; “Payroll numbers also continue to be cut at an aggressive rate”; “the demand environment remains both uneven and fragile”.
• France sells EUR 10.499bln vs exp. EUR 8.5-10.5bln 2.40% 2028, 2.50% 2030, and 2.70% 2031 OAT.

Commodities

• Modestly positive trade in the crude complex in what has been a quiet session thus far, but with eyes remaining on geopolitics amid a couple of notable updates. WTI resides in a USD 62.78-63.40/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 66.88-67.49/bbl parameter.
• Softer trade across precious metals, albeit modest in spot gold and silver, with newsflow on the lighter side and with the metals largely moving in tandem with the dollar. Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex subdued, with spot gold on either side of its 50 DMA (~3,348.10/oz) in a USD 3,334.28.56-3,352.30/oz range.
• Subdued price action across the base metals complex - in fitting with the broader market mood as traders look ahead to the Jackson Hole Symposium. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,689.45-9,739.40/t range.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• UN Secretary General Guterres called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza to avoid massive death and destruction in Gaza City, while he called for Israel to reverse its decision to expand the illegal settlement expansion in the West Bank.

Geopolitics: UKRAINE

• Ukraine's Air Force said Russia used 574 drones and 40 missiles in an overnight attack.
• Moscow to host first nuclear summit on September 25", according to Al Arabiya.
• Ukraine President Zelensky said Kyiv wants to have an understanding of security guarantees within 7-10 days, followed by bilateral and trilateral leaders meetings. If Russia is not ready for a bilateral leaders meeting, Ukraine and Europe want to see strong US reaction. ‘Flamingo’ missile is Ukraine’s most successful missile, mass production expected by early next year. Ukrainian proposal for US drone deal entails production worth USD 50bln over five years. Ten million drones expected to be produced yearly as part of the deal. China not included in security guarantees because China did not help after the Russian invasion. On Budapest as venue for peace talks: “For now, this is challenging.”Ukraine will not legally recognise Russia's occupation of its territories. There is no signal that Moscow is prepared to end the war and have substantial conversations. Ukraine has tested a new long-range missile.
• Ukrainian President Zelenksy's Chief of Staff warned against repeating mistakes of the 1994 Budapest memorandum on security guarantees and said Ukraine's allies have started active work on the military aspect of security guarantees, while a contingency plan is being developed with partners in case Russia extends the war or violates agreements from leaders' meetings.
• US VP Vance said on Fox News that Europeans are going to have to take the lion’s share of the burden in security. It was separately reported that a Pentagon top policy official told a small group of allies Tuesday night that the US plans to play a minimal role in any Ukraine security guarantees, according to POLITICO citing Defense Undersecretary for Policy Colby.
• Turkish defence ministry source said ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine needed before discussing peacekeeping mission framework, via Reuters citing sources.
• Russia attacked a key Ukrainian gas compressor station vital for storage operations, according to Reuters sources.
• Ukraine military said it hit a Russian oil refinery, drone warehouse and fuel base overnight.

Geopolitics: Other 

• North Korea has a heavily fortified, covert military base that could house its newest long-range ballistic missiles, which are potentially capable of striking the US mainland, according to a new report cited by the WSJ.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30 am: Aug 16 Initial Jobless Claims, est. 225.33k, prior 224k
• 8:30 am: Aug 9 Continuing Claims, est. 1960k, prior 1953k
• 8:30 am: Aug Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, est. 6.5, prior 15.9
• 9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, est. 49.7, prior 49.8
• 9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global U.S. Services PMI, est. 54.2, prior 55.7
• 9:45 am: Aug P S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI, est. 53.5, prior 55.1
• 10:00 am: Jul Leading Index, est. -0.1%, prior -0.3%
• 10:00 am: Jul Existing Home Sales, est. 3.92m, prior 3.93m
• 10:00 am: Jul Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -0.25%, prior -2.7%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

While the headline market moves were fairly muted over the past 24 hours, investors had to navigate a couple of major narratives. One was renewed concerns over Fed independence as President Trump suggested that Fed Governor Cook should resign, which pushed gold (+0.98%) to its best day since the weak July payrolls report on August 1. The other was continued pressure on tech stocks as the Mag-7 (-1.11%) posted consecutive declines of more than 1% for the first time since the post-Liberation Day sell-off in early April. This sent the S&P 500 (-0.24%) lower for a fourth session running even as the index recovered most of its -1% intra-day decline.

The topic of the US administration’s influence over the Fed came back into the headlines as Trump posted that Fed Governor “Cook must resign, now!!!”. His post followed news that Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Director Bill Pulte had written a criminal investigation referral letter to Attorney General Pam Bondi alleging that Governor Lisa Cook may have committed mortgage fraud. Pulte has been one of the staunchest Fed critics within the administration, earlier calling for an investigation into Chair Powell over the Fed’s building renovations. Yesterday Pulte claimed that the allegations give Trump “cause to fire” Governor Cook. Later in the day, Cook said in a statement that she had “no intention of being bullied to step down from my position”.

Governor Cook was nominated to the Federal Reserve Board by Joe Biden in 2022 and our US economists see her as leaning slightly towards to dovish end within the FOMC. Were Governor Cook to resign or be fired, that would create another opening for Trump to fill on the seven-person Board. With Stephen Miran nominated to take the seat recently vacated by Governor Kugler and two Fed Governors – Bowman and Waller – dissenting to vote for a rate cut at the July meeting, this would increase the prospects of a dovish majority emerging on the Board, especially if Chair Powell relinquishes his seat next year. That said, if concerns over threats to Fed independence increase, Powell could choose to serve out the rest of his board term (which ends in 2028) even after his term as Chair ends next May.

The news was a reminder of the lingering concerns over future Fed independence and risks of fiscal dominance, though the extent of the market reaction was fairly modest. The most sustained reaction was in gold (+0.98%) as mentioned at the top. The dollar index fell by a couple of tenths following the news but was back to little changed (-0.05%) by the close. Front-end yields fell by 3-4bps, but that move came amid a broader risk-off mood early in the session and also reversed later on.

By the close, 10yr Treasury yields were -1.5bps lower at 4.29% but 2yr yields were unchanged at 3.75%. This curve flattening was also supported by hawkish-leaning minutes of the July FOMC meeting. These showed that most of the FOMC “judged the upside risk to inflation” as greater than the “downside risk to employment”, with several participants noting the “risk of longer-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored”. That said, the minutes did suggest easing would be warranted “if labor market conditions were to weaken materially", and given the weak jobs report that followed the July decision, the relative focus on employment versus inflation risks will likely have shifted since. So, while pricing of September rate cut inched down yesterday to its lowest since the August 1 jobs report, a 25bp cut was still 83% priced.

US equities saw an even larger round trip, with a rout for tech stocks early in session leaving the S&P 500 more than -1% down intra-day but recovering to -0.24% by the close. The NASDAQ fell -0.67%, having been almost -2% down early on, while the Mag-7 slid by -1.11% after a -1.67% drop on Tuesday. The last time the Mag-7 saw consecutive declines of more than 1% was during the post-Liberation Day collapse in early April. The tech sell-off may have been exacerbated by reporting of an MIT study claiming that 95% of enterprises adopting AI saw no measurable increase in profits. Here at DB research, we remain optimistic on the productivity impact of AI but the report is a reminder that successful integration of new technologies takes time and that it’s still uncertain who will be the biggest end beneficiaries of the AI wave. Outside of tech, US equities had a decent day, with most of the S&P 500 sectors advancing, led by energy (+0.86%) which benefited as Brent crude prices rose +1.60% to $66.84/bbl.

Turning to Europe, we saw the latest rate decision from Sweden’s Riksbank, which kept rates on hold at 2.00% as expected while continuing to signal “some probability of a further interest rate cut this year”. Market pricing of another rate cut by year-end inched down to 88% from 91% the day before. We also heard from ECB President Lagarde, who said that “Recent trade deals have alleviated, but certainly not eliminated, global uncertainty” and noted that the euro area economy was likely to see slower growth this quarter. So that was arguably a bit more dovish in tone than her press conference last month, though Lagarde gave away little on the policy outlook.

Expectations of ECB easing ticked up on the day, with 21bps of cuts now priced by next June, the highest this has been in almost two weeks. In turn, European government bonds rallied with 10yr bund yields falling -3.2bps to 2.72%, and OAT (-2.2bps) and BTP (-3.0bps) yields similarly moving lower. Bunds were also supported by Germany’s PPI inflation print (-1.5% yoy vs -1.4% expected) falling to a 13-month low in July. Meanwhile, the euro area final headline CPI for July came in line with the flash reading at 2.0%.

Over in the UK, gilts yields saw a larger rally, with 10yr yields down -6.8bps to 4.67%. This came despite July CPI coming in slightly stronger than expected at +3.8% yoy for both headline and core inflation (vs +3.7% expected), which marked the highest headline reading since January 2024. A saving grace noted by our UK economist Sanjay Raja is that with the volatile transport and travel services components driving the upside, most core services metrics ticked down on the month (see Sanjay’s reaction here). Money markets moved to price in more BoE easing for early 2026 following the release, with the amount of cuts priced by next June rising +5.5bps to 38bps.

The repricing in UK rates helped the FTSE 100 outperform (+1.01%). The Stoxx 600 rose +0.24% but continental indices were more subdued, with the CAC (+0.06%) posting a marginal gain but the DAX (-0.69%) and FTSE MIB (-0.36%) losing ground.

Overnight, sentiment has turned risk-on again in most Asian equity markets. The KOSPI is up +0.73%, while the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.90%) is leading the way after a strong flash PMI print. Australia's composite PMI rose from 53.8 to 54.9 and the manufacturing index reached a 35-month high of 52.9. Chinese stocks are on also the rise, with the CSI (+0.72%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.33%) higher though the Hang Seng (-0.10%) is lagging. Meanwhile, US equity futures on the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 are little changed after yesterday’s decline.

The one Asian market defying the regional positive trend is Japan, with the Nikkei down -0.58%. That comes despite Japan’s composite PMI rising to a 6-month high of 51.9 in the August flash reading (up from 51.6 in July), as stabilization in manufacturing (49.9 vs 48.9 in July) has offset slowing services growth (52.7 vs 53.6 in July). However, long-end JGB yields are inching higher to new multi-decade highs ahead of the July inflation print tomorrow morning, with the 30yr yield up +0.7bps to 3.18%, a new all-time high since this tenor was introduced in 1999.

To the day ahead, the main highlight will be the August flash PMI prints in Europe and the US. Other data releases include the August Philadelphia Fed business outlook, July existing home sales and weekly jobless claims in the US as well as August Eurozone consumer confidence. Earnings include Walmart, Intuit, and Workday. The Fed’s Bostic is due to speak, while the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium begins this evening with the main events on Friday and Saturday.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 08:07

Mildly (temperament) rewritten CNN piece on the Affordable Care Act and how Republicans are changing it instead of repealing it. Republicans are claiming increased fraud. No so much with the recipients using the ACA but with the various brokers selling the plans. I am not sure how taking healthcare away from people has a positive […]

The post Republicans are quietly rolling back Obamacare appeared first on Angry Bear.

Walmart Lifts Outlook, But Profit Miss Drags Shares Lower

Ahead of the Jackson Hole central bank summit in Wyoming, beginning later today through Saturday, investors are parsing Walmart's earnings. 

The world’s largest retailer delivered stronger-than-expected revenue last quarter and raised its full-year outlook. This is a reassuring sign that consumers remain resilient despite inflation, tariffs, and elevated interest rates. However, the real focus is not the improved outlook, but the profit miss relative to expectations.

For the quarter ending July 31, Walmart posted a profit of $7.02 billion, or about 88 cents a share, versus $4.5 billion, or 56 cents a share, for the same quarter one year ago. Total revenue for the quarter rose 4.8% to $177.4 billion, topping the FactSet estimate of $175.9 billion. 

Excluding legal and restructuring costs, adjusted earnings came in at 68 cents a share. Analysts polled by FactSet expected adjusted earnings of 73 cents. 

The world’s largest retailer cited a rise in insurance claims, legal charges, and restructuring costs as major factors that pressured profits.

Here's an earnings snapshot for the second quarter (FactSet) 

• Net income: $7.02B (88c/shr) vs. $4.5B (56c/shr) a year ago.

• Adjusted EPS: 68c, below the 73c expected.

• Revenue: $177.4B, up 4.8% and above $175.9B consensus.

• U.S. sales: $120.9B, up 4.8%; comparable sales +4.3% (ex-fuel +4.8%).

• International sales: $31.2B, +5.5%.

• Sam's Club sales: $23.6B, +3.4%.

Charts: EPS & Cash Flow 

Charts: Operating Income & Operating expenses as a percentage of net sales

CFO John David Rainey told Bloomberg, "The consumer is resilient," adding that the retailer continues to win market share across all income levels, especially the upper middle class. 

The takeaway from the second quarter is that Walmart is gaining market share and boosting sales, especially in e-commerce and international markets. However, profitability remains pressured, with adjusted earnings lagging expectations even as top-line strength supports upgraded full-year guidance. 

Here's guidance for the current quarter 

• Adjusted EPS 58–60c; sales growth 3.75%–4.75% (vs. analysts' 57c, $176B).

Full year guidance: 

• Sales growth outlook raised to 3.75%–4.75% (prior 3%–4%).

• Adjusted EPS: $2.52–$2.62, slightly above prior $2.50–$2.60, though shy of Street's $2.62.

Earnings Deck

Commenting on the earnings report is UBS analyst Nana Antiedu, who notes that even though the retailer is gaining more market share, profitability is under pressure:

Walmart raised its net sales, now 3.75%-4.75% from 3-4%, and EPS outlook, now $2.52 -$2.62, for FY26 in its latest earnings report. The retailer said each business segment experienced growth, with eCommerce growing 25% with digital mix up across all segments. Revenue was reported at $177.4 bn, up 4.8% and beating Reuters expectations of 176.16 bn. However, adjusted EPS came in at $0.68, below Reuters expectations of $0.74. Walmart stocks are indicating 2.65% lower in the pre-market due to the EPS miss.

The stock is lower 2.5% in premarket trading as investors focus on the EPS miss that overshadows the positive outlook hike...

Shares are still near record highs... 

. . . 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 07:55

Coty Tanks As Fragile Turnaround Delayed On Perfume Sales Slump 

Coty shares crashed in premarket trading after the beauty giant warned of a deeper sales slump this quarter and posted a steeper-than-expected loss for the fourth quarter.

The beauty company, which develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes cosmetics, fragrances, and skincare products, warned that like-for-like sales, which measure revenue from existing business units, will fall between 6% and 8% this current quarter, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of a 2.6% decline. 

For quarter four, Coty beat on revenue but missed on earnings, pressured by margin compression and weaker U.S. consumer beauty sales. 

Here's an earnings snapshot of the previous quarter:

Earnings: Adjusted loss per share 5c, wider than last year's 3c loss and well below the 1.4c profit expected (Bloomberg consensus).

Revenue: Net revenue $1.25B, down 8.1% y/y but slightly above the $1.21B estimate.

• Americas: $511.2M (-12% y/y, vs. $515M est.)

• EMEA: $574.2M (-4% y/y, vs. $569M est.)

• APAC: $167M (-8.4% y/y, but well ahead of $134.6M est.)

• Prestige: $760.6M (-5.3% y/y, above $717.8M est.)

• Consumer Beauty: $491.8M (-12% y/y, in line with $496M est.)

Margins & Profitability: Gross margin 62.3% (vs. 64.2% y/y, 63.1% est.); Adjusted EBITDA $126.7M (-23% y/y, vs. $130.8M est.).

Sales Trends: Like-for-like sales fell 9%, the sharpest drop in over four years.

Coty's latest comes amid a five-year turnaround effort. There are reports that the company may unload assets - potentially selling its luxury portfolio to Interparfums and ending mass-market names like Covergirl, Rimmel, Adidas, and Nautica in a separate deal, according to Women's Wear Daily.

Softness is expected to continue into the second quarter ending in December, with Coty forecasting sales declines of around 5%, versus the Bloomberg Consensus estimate of flat performance.

"A return to sales and profit growth at Coty is delayed until fiscal 2H26 at best," Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Deborah Aitken wrote in a note, adding that the beauty maker's "forecast of a sales drop in 1H26 "is not without risk to a recovery in 2H, though is aided by new launches, price hikes to offset tariffs and an easier year-ago comparison partially." 

JPMorgan analyst Andrea Teixeira wrote in a note, "Investors will continue to treat COTY shares as a 'show me the money' story given the lack of visibility and more discretionary nature of fragrances amid a more challenging consumer demand backdrop." Teixeira has a "Neutral" rating on the stock. 

Even though the bar was very low for Coty following the year-to-date underperformance, "results were worse than expected," Citi analyst Filippo Falorni said. He cut the stock from "Buy" to "Neutral" and downshifted his 12-month price target to $4.25 from $6.50. 

Shares are down 21% in premarket trading. If losses hold into the cash session, it would mark the steepest daily decline since the early Covid period.

Rollercoaster ride. 

. . . 

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 07:45

Interviews To Replace Fed Chair To Start After Labor Day, Bessent Says

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

Potential candidate interviews for the post of the new Federal Reserve chairman will be happening soon, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an Aug. 19 interview with CNBC.

“In terms of the interview process, we’ve announced 11 very strong candidates,“ Bessent said, without providing any more details on the list.

”I’m going to be meeting with them probably right before [and] right after Labor Day, and to start bringing down the list to present to President [Donald] Trump.”

This year, Labor Day falls on Sept. 1.

“It’s an incredible group,“ Bessent said.

”It’s people who are at the Fed now, have been at the Fed, and private sector. So I’m looking forward to meeting all of them with a very open mind.”

The Fed chairman is nominated by the president for a four-year term and must be confirmed by the Senate.

The term of the current Fed chairman, Jerome Powell, is set to expire in May 2026.

Talking about the Fed’s high interest rates, Bessent said the central bank is seeing “some distributional aspects to the higher rates,” especially in housing and lower-income households with high credit card debt.

On one hand, there is a boom in capital expenditure, while on the other hand, households and home building are struggling, he said.

“If we keep constraining home building, then what kind of inflation does that create one or two years out?“ he said.

”So, you know, a cut here could facilitate a boom or a pickup in home building, which will keep prices down one, two years down the road.”

Bessent was asked whether the producer price index (PPI) inflation number for July, published last week, suggests that it is the right time to cut 50 points or at least 25 points from the Fed’s interest rate.

PPI measures prices paid by businesses for goods and services. In July, the index rose by 3.3 percent year over year after remaining below the 3 percent level for the previous three months.

Bessent dismissed the PPI increase, highlighting the fact that since Trump first came to office, there have been five “very tame” PPI figures. He said a major component of July’s PPI number was investment services, “which just means the market went up a lot.”

Bessent’s comments about interviewing Fed chairman candidates come amid rumors about multiple names that could take over as Powell’s successor, including former Fed board member Kevin Warsh, current Fed board member Christopher Waller, and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.

Trump has been at odds with Powell over the issue of rate cuts. The president has pushed for lowering interest rates to bring down borrowing costs and trigger growth.

However, Powell has maintained that rates will only be cut once the central bank is convinced that inflation will not rise because of Washington’s tariff policies.

In July, Bessent said the formal process for selecting a new Fed chairman was underway and clarified that Trump has no intention to remove Powell before the end of his term in May despite differences in opinion.

On July 25, Trump said he may appoint a new Fed chairman based on the candidate’s willingness to lower rates.

Rate Cut Issue

Since December 2024, the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged in a range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent for five consecutive meetings.

There are three more policy meetings scheduled for the central bank in 2025: one from Sept. 16 to Sept. 17 and one each in October and December.

After the July meeting, Powell cited inflation as a cause for concern, arguing that the effects of tariffs on inflation “remain to be seen.”

“We see our current policy stance as appropriate to guard against inflation risks,” he said.

However, Waller and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman had dissented from the decision to keep rates unchanged at the July meeting.

The one-off increases in price level should be “looked through,” Waller said, arguing that the current monetary policy was more restrictive than necessary.

In an Aug. 12 post, ING Bank stated that while the cost of many goods will end up rising in time because of tariffs, it does not “see inflation pressures persisting.”

Between 2021 and 2022, inflation jumped to 9 percent. At the time, oil prices tripled, home prices and rents surged, and the job market remained “red hot” amid soaring wages, the bank stated. All of these factors contributed to rising inflation.

“Today, these are all disinflationary influences, with cooling housing rents in particular set to help offset the effect of tariffs over the coming quarters,” ING Bank stated.

“With the jobs market not looking as solid as it did earlier in the year and consensus [gross domestic product] growth forecasts having been cut from 2.5 percent at the beginning of this year down to 1.5 percent we believe the Fed will cut the policy rate in September and follow up with additional 25 [basis point] cuts in October and December.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 07:20

What GAO Found Airport service workers support the U.S. commercial air transportation industry by loading cargo and baggage, cleaning aircraft and terminals, assisting passengers with disabilities, driving shuttle buses, and providing food and beverages, among other functions. The revenue generated by businesses associated with these workers can provide insight into their economic contributions. For example, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) data show that in 2023, the nation’s busiest 138 commercial service airports earned approximately $5.9 billion in revenue from ground transportation and parking services, and $2.3 billion from terminal concessions. These earnings accounted for nearly 30 percent of those airports’ annual operating revenue. GAO’s analysis of airport service workers’ economic characteristics found that they are generally better off than service workers in all industries and worse off than air transportation workers overall (a population that includes workers like flight attendants and mechanics). For example, the median wage for airport service workers paid hourly was estimated to be $19.74 (in 2024 dollars), according to 2018 through 2024 Current Population Survey data. This wage was higher than that of service workers in all industries and lower than that of air transportation workers overall. Median Wages for Selected Hourly Workers, 2018-2024 (in 2024 dollars) Notes: For the purposes of this report, airport service workers are private sector employees in 36 selected occupations within the air transportation industry. Air transportation workers overall include all private sector employees in the air transportation industry, such as flight attendants and mechanics. Service workers in all industries are private sector employees—in all industries combined—working in the same 36 selected occupations as airport service workers. GAO’s wage analysis only includes workers who reported that they were paid hourly. GAO’s analysis also found that approximately 7 percent of airport service workers lived at or below the poverty line when they responded to the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey from 2018 through 2022. The same analysis found 15 percent of service workers in all industries lived at or below the poverty line, as did 4 percent of air transportation workers overall. Why GAO Did This Study The U.S. air transportation industry is a key component of the nation’s economy, enabling the movement of goods and passengers throughout the nation and the world. The FAA Reauthorization Act of 2024 included a provision for GAO to conduct a comprehensive review of domestic airport service workers, including their role in, importance to, and impact on the aviation economy. This report provides information about selected airport service workers’ economic contributions to airports and their economic characteristics, among other topics. To describe airport service workers’ economic contributions to airports, GAO analyzed 2023 data from FAA’s Certification Activity Tracking System. GAO also reviewed economic impact reports representing 26 large hub airports (defined as airports that have 1 percent or more of the annual national passenger boardings). In addition, GAO interviewed FAA officials and representatives from 12 organizations, including airports, airlines and other employers, and labor unions. To describe the workers’ economic characteristics, GAO analyzed the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey 5-year data from 2018 through 2022. GAO also analyzed 2018 through 2024 data from the Current Population Survey, which is sponsored jointly by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Labor Statistics. For each of these data sources, GAO analyzed the most recently finalized data available at the time of its analysis. For more information, contact Danielle Giese at giesed@gao.gov.

Federal Reserve officials believe risk of inflation outpaced labor concerns, Minutes Since Tr__p has been fumbling around with tariffs July 2025: Majority of Federal Reserve officials believe the risk of higher inflation outpaces concerns about the state of the labor market. This is according to the latest minutes released by the central bank. Inflation and the health […]

The post No Change in the Fed Rate appeared first on Angry Bear.

Visualizing Federal Layoffs Under Trump

Does cutting government headcount make it work more effectively?

From firing inspectors-general, to mass layoffs in the Department of Education, the federal workforce is being scaled back.

So far, the Supreme Court has ruled in favor of 12 of these terminations, while scores of workers are leaving voluntarily.

This graphic, via Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld, shows Trump’s federal layoffs, based on data from CNN.

Ranked: Federal Layoffs by Agency in 2025

In the table below, we show more than 51,000 federal job cuts as of July 14, 2025:

So far, 34 agencies or sub-agencies have made job cuts either through layoffs or notices of termination.

As a result, Washington D.C. is home to the highest number of layoffs in the country in 2025, with six agencies seeing at least 80% of their workforce eliminated.

Most notably, USAID’s closure resulted in about 10,000 layoffs, with 83% of its programs being shut down.

Meanwhile, the Small Business Administration cut about 42% of its workforce, equal to approximately 2,700 employees.

Even more staggeringly, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) cut 86.4% of its staff. 

For perspective, the federal headcount stood at about three million employees in early 2025, with 50% working in the sector for more than 10 years.

Overall, the U.S. ranks 11th out of 80 countries by share of government workers per capita, based on 2023 figures.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 06:55

While MSM Screamed "Climate Crisis", Arctic Ice Loss Actually Slowed 

What the globalist corporate media once smeared as "conspiracy theory" and branded "misinformation" has turned out to be true: the climate crisis was merely an imaginary problem and an informational war on the minds of the taxpayer.

Why all the propaganda? Give Democrats cover for a massive heist of the U.S. Treasury, laundering taxpayer dollars through mysterious NGOs via the Green New Deal Inflation Reduction Act into radical leftist NGOs and politically connected green companies. It was never about saving the planet, as it turns out. 

Between 2019, when socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez introduced the Green New Deal (which ultimately failed), and President Biden's passage of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, the globalists, their corporate media outlets, and dark-money-funded NGOs unleashed a propaganda blitz by flooding the airwaves with record levels of "climate crisis" stories and left millions of folks with climate anxieties.

As soon as the heist was over ... those climate crisis headlines, according to Bloomberg data this month, quite literally evaporated. 

Meanwhile, as Earth is supposedly imploding in a climate crisis, new findings show that Arctic sea ice decline stalled over the past two decades, with no significant loss in September extent since 2005...

Breaking ... not Arctic sea ice

"Dramatic slowdown in melting of Arctic sea ice surprises scientists"

"No statistically significant decline in its extent since 2005." pic.twitter.com/YhZdTgpzGP

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) August 20, 2025

This new research, titled "Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability," was published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters and showed three key points:

• The loss of Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a pronounced slowdown over the past two decades, across all months of the year

• Rather than being an unexpected rare event, comprehensive climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulate such pauses relatively frequently

• According to these climate model simulations, this pause in the loss of Arctic sea ice could plausibly continue for the next 5–10 years

What's remarkable is that multiple generations of Democrats have had their worldview shaped by climate crisis headlines pushed by DEI-driven journalists. And the only solution Democrats ever offer for the so-called crisis is more taxes and degrowth policies that sabotage the West. In reality, this is climate Marxism and has handed China a leap ahead.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 02:45

Tusk Ridiculously Blamed Putin For A Bandera Flag Scandal In Poland's Largest Stadium

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Many military-aged Ukrainian men in Poland are anti-Polish extremists who pose a latent security threat...

Poles were furious after the flag of Stepan Bandera’s “Ukrainian Insurgent Army” was recently flown in a Warsaw stadium, the country’s largest, during a Belarusian rapper’s concert. After all, it was in his name and under this flag that Ukrainians genocided over 100,000 Poles during WWII, whose remains have yet to be exhumed and properly buried even though Kiev already did this for over 100,000 Wehrmacht soldiers. Several dozen Ukrainians and a handful Belarusians were detained and will now be deported.

This follows the scandal earlier in the month when a parliamentarian shouted “Slava Ukraini” in the Sejm and comes amidst Poles already getting fed up with Ukrainian refugees and the proxy war. Anti-Ukrainian sentiment is therefore expected to surge in the aftermath of this latest incident, and it was likely with a view to desperately redirect Poles’ fury away from the around one million of them that flooded into the country since 2022 that Prime Minister Donald Tusk ridiculously blamed Putin for what just happened.

He tweeted that “The resolution of the Ukrainian war is approaching, so Russia is doing everything to sow discord between Kyiv and Warsaw. Anti-Polish gestures by Ukrainians and fueling anti-Ukrainian sentiments in Poland are Putin’s scenario, orchestrated by foreign agents and local idiots. Always the same ones.”

Many Poles rejected his kooky conspiracy theory in their comments under his post, taking offense at how he insulted their intelligence and reminding him of how much Ukrainians glorify Bandera.

This proves what was earlier written about how fed up Poles are getting with Ukrainian refugees, the hyperlinked analysis of which relied on survey data from a reputable pollster to reach that conclusion, thus confirming the expected surge of anti-Ukrainian sentiment in the aftermath of this latest incident. What just happened was particularly offensive since many Poles opened up their homes for Ukrainian refugees early on the special operation, volunteered to help them, and donated to associated charities.

This was done out of solidarity with Ukraine against Russia, Poland’s historical rival, yet Poles are now realizing how naïve they were. Far from overcoming their historical hatred for Poland, Ukrainians still glorify the man in whose name their ancestors genocided Poles, and military-aged men who dodged their country’s draft by being in Poland have no qualms about doing this in their host’s capital. This isn’t just ingratitude, it’s blatant disrespect, and it’s due to Ukrainians nowadays feeling privileged in Poland.

Poles finally understand this and that’s why many now want Ukrainians’ benefits to be revoked, not to mention the growing number of them that want military-aged Ukrainian men to be deported for security reasons too, which is sensible considering that many are anti-Polish extremists. The inevitable end of the Ukrainian Conflict will likely lead to an influx of veterans into Poland who, given their battlefield experience and ideological indoctrination, might carry out acts of terrorism against society and the state.

As explained here last fall, Ukrainian ultra-nationalists lay claim to parts of southeastern Poland so they might very well try to advance this expansionist agenda in the future, especially if the narrative circulates that Poland “stabbed Ukraine in the back” and thus “helped Russia win” by curtailing military aid. What just happened in Warsaw is a harbinger of what’s to come if Poland doesn’t coerce or outright force military-aged Ukrainian men into leave and lets veterans flood into the country after the conflict ends.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 02:00

Sen. Klobuchar Denies Saying Sydney Sweeney Has 'Perfect Titties'

Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) has taken to the NY Times to slam "deepfakes" - after a video emerged in which she appears to declare that Sydney Sweeney has 'perfect titties.' (also, definitely don't go on X and search for "perfect titties")... 

"The A.I. deepfake featured me using the phrase ‘perfect t-tties’ and lamenting that Democrats were “too fat to wear jeans or too ugly to go outside," Klobuchar wrote. "Though I could immediately tell that someone used footage from the hearing to make a deepfake, there was no getting around the fact that it looked and sounded very real." (that only a complete retard would be fooled by).

"If Republicans are gonna have beautiful girls with perfect t-tties in their ads, we want ads for Democrats too, you know?" she 'says' in the deepfake. 

"We want ugly, fat bitches wearing pink wigs and long-ass fake nails being loud and twerking on top of a cop car at a Waffle House because they didn’t get extra ketchup, you know?

"Just because we’re the party of ugly people doesn’t mean we can’t be featured in ads, OK? And I know most of us are too fat to wear jeans or too ugly to go outside, but we want representation."

Meanwhile, here are the results of some serious journalism to determine if in fact Sweeney has perfect titties...

Proof pic.twitter.com/eHJaIntTWX

— Mr_White (@Mr__Whiite) August 20, 2025

Sydney Sweeney has Great jeans pic.twitter.com/REN6leZFr4

— Barkin • ברקין • Баркин • 巴尔金 (@B2RKN) August 20, 2025

Wait, what? Should probably click on this to investigate... 

Psst, add a ZeroHedge velcro patch to your order. Just arrived at the warehouse and selling fast! A few options.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/21/2025 - 00:00