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FOMC Minutes: "Committee might face difficult tradeoffs" regarding Unemployment and Inflation

Calculated Risk -

This is a little stale since this meeting was before the July employment report.

From the Fed: Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, July 29–30, 2025. Excerpt:
n their discussion of inflation, many participants observed that overall inflation remained somewhat above the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal. Participants noted that tariff effects were becoming more apparent in the data, as indicated by recent increases in goods price inflation, while services price inflation had continued to slow. A couple of participants suggested that tariff effects were masking the underlying trend of inflation and, setting aside the tariff effects, inflation was close to target.

With regard to the outlook for inflation, participants generally expected inflation to increase in the near term. ...

In their evaluation of the risks and uncertainties associated with the economic outlook, participants judged that uncertainty about the economic outlook remained elevated, though several participants remarked that there had been some reduction in uncertainty regarding fiscal policy, immigration policy, or tariff policy. Participants generally pointed to risks to both sides of the Committee's dual mandate, emphasizing upside risk to inflation and downside risk to employment. A majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of these two risks, while several participants viewed the two risks as roughly balanced, and a couple of participants considered downside risk to employment the more salient risk. Regarding upside risks to inflation, participants pointed to the uncertain effects of tariffs and the possibility of inflation expectations becoming unanchored. In addition to tariff-induced risks, potential downside risks to employment mentioned by participants included a possible tightening of financial conditions due to a rise in risk premiums, a more substantial deterioration in the housing market, and the risk that the increased use of AI in the workplace may lower employment.

In their discussion of financial stability, participants who commented noted vulnerabilities to the financial system that they assessed warranted monitoring. ...

In discussing risk-management considerations that could bear on the outlook for monetary policy, participants generally agreed that the upside risk to inflation and the downside risk to employment remained elevated. Participants noted that, if this year's higher tariffs were to generate a larger-than-expected or a more-persistent-than-anticipated increase in inflation, or if medium- or longer-term inflation expectations were to increase notably, then it would be appropriate to maintain a more restrictive stance of monetary policy than would otherwise be the case, especially if labor market conditions remained solid. By contrast, if labor market conditions were to weaken materially or if inflation were to come down further and inflation expectations remained well anchored, then it would be appropriate to establish a less restrictive stance of monetary policy than would otherwise be the case. Participants noted that the Committee might face difficult tradeoffs if elevated inflation proved to be more persistent while the outlook for the labor market weakened.
emphasis added

Real nonsupervisory payrolls and income in danger of tariff-driven stagnation

Angry Bear -

 – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the “real” purchasing power of average working and middle class Americans. The July jobs report showed that average hourly earnings for nonsupervisory workers rose a little under 0.3% (blue in the graph below). Consumer inflation (red) rose 0.2%, so “real” average hourly earnings rose 0.1%. […]

The post Real nonsupervisory payrolls and income in danger of tariff-driven stagnation appeared first on Angry Bear.

Syria, Israel Hold Unprecedented US-Mediated Talks In Paris

Zero Hedge -

Syria, Israel Hold Unprecedented US-Mediated Talks In Paris

Via The Cradle

Syria has issued confirmation of a meeting between its foreign minister and a close confidante of Benjamin Netanyahu in Paris, marking the first official announcement of direct talks between Damascus and Tel Aviv. Earlier, reports had said Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani would meet with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer in Paris.

"Shaibani met today in the French capital, Paris, with an Israeli delegation to discuss several issues related to ‘enhancing stability’ in the region and southern Syria. Discussions focused on de-escalation and non-interference in Syria's internal affairs, reaching understandings that support stability in the region, monitoring the ceasefire in As-Suwayda Governorate, and reactivating the 1974 agreement," state news agency SANA reported on Tuesday. 

Image source: SANA

"These discussions are being held with US mediation as part of diplomatic efforts aimed at enhancing security and stability in Syria and preserving its unity and territorial integrity," it added. 

This was not the first meeting between Dermer and Shaibani. US envoy to Syria, Tom Barrack, said on July 24 that he met in Paris with Syrian and Israeli officials for “dialogue and de-escalation.” Shaibani and Dermer were both visiting the French capital at the time. 

Barrack’s announcement came after the end of violent clashes between pro-government forces and local Syrian Druze factions in the southern city of Suwayda and its countryside, resulting in numerous civilian massacres.

Israel intervened with a series of violent airstrikes targeting Damascus and other areas in southern Syria, under the pretext of “protecting” the Druze minority. According to reports, Syrian-Israeli negotiations, which had been ongoing since the start of the year, resumed quickly after the attacks, following a brief pause.

Since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government last year, Israeli forces have established a widespread military occupation across southern Syria.

Occupation forces continue to expand their presence in the country’s south, launching regular raids, incursions, and airstrikes. Israel says it wishes to demilitarize the entire south, protect the Druze minority from persecution, and prevent ‘hostile forces’ from establishing a presence.

Damascus has repeatedly signaled that it does not intend to pose a threat to Israel. Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani, has also reportedly held meetings with Israeli officials. 

A source told Syrian media last month that Sharaa held a meeting with Israel’s National Security Advisor Tzachi Hanegbi in Abu Dhabi on July 7.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 12:25

DHS Secretary Says Southern Border Wall Will Be Painted Black To Deter Illegal Crossings

Zero Hedge -

DHS Secretary Says Southern Border Wall Will Be Painted Black To Deter Illegal Crossings

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Aug. 19 that President Donald Trump has requested that the entire wall along the U.S.-Mexico border be painted black in order to deter illegal crossings.

Speaking to reporters in New Mexico, Noem said the border wall is being built tall and extended deep underground to prevent any breaches, and the metal would be painted black to make it even more difficult to climb.

“That is specifically at the request of the president, who understands that in the hot temperatures down here, when something is painted black, it gets even warmer, and it will make it even harder for people to climb,” she said.

“So we are going to be painting the entire southern border wall black to make sure that we encourage individuals to not come into our country illegally, to not break our federal laws.”

Noem noted that cameras and sensors would be installed in the future to enhance security at the border, adding that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) also plans to build “water-borne infrastructure.”

“Construction right now is at the pace of a little bit less than a half a mile a day, and the border wall will look very different based on the topography and the geography of where it is built,” she added.

Noem did not provide details on the wall’s construction cost. The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law by Trump last month, allocated about $46.5 billion for the construction of a wall along the border with Mexico.

Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border after taking office for a second term on Jan. 20, directing the deployment of armed forces to assist with border security efforts.

Under the declaration, Noem and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth were ordered to take “all appropriate action” to construct more physical barriers along the border. Following that order, Noem issued a waiver in April that enabled the immediate construction of 2.5 miles of border in California. 

Trump has signed several executive actions aimed at deterring illegal immigration, including a memo authorizing the military to take control of land along the U.S.–Mexico border.

Data released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) last month shows that illegal border crossings fell to their lowest level in June, with no parole releases of illegal immigrants.

There were 25,228 total encounters nationwide in June, down from 29,478 the previous month, marking the lowest monthly total ever recorded by CBP, the agency stated.

Border Patrol apprehensions nationwide also dropped to a historic low, with 8,024 apprehensions recorded, compared with 10,357 in May, according to the agency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 11:45

DHS Secretary Says Southern Border Wall Will Be Painted Black To Deter Illegal Crossings

Zero Hedge -

DHS Secretary Says Southern Border Wall Will Be Painted Black To Deter Illegal Crossings

Authored by Aldgra Fredly via The Epoch Times,

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Aug. 19 that President Donald Trump has requested that the entire wall along the U.S.-Mexico border be painted black in order to deter illegal crossings.

Speaking to reporters in New Mexico, Noem said the border wall is being built tall and extended deep underground to prevent any breaches, and the metal would be painted black to make it even more difficult to climb.

“That is specifically at the request of the president, who understands that in the hot temperatures down here, when something is painted black, it gets even warmer, and it will make it even harder for people to climb,” she said.

“So we are going to be painting the entire southern border wall black to make sure that we encourage individuals to not come into our country illegally, to not break our federal laws.”

Noem noted that cameras and sensors would be installed in the future to enhance security at the border, adding that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) also plans to build “water-borne infrastructure.”

“Construction right now is at the pace of a little bit less than a half a mile a day, and the border wall will look very different based on the topography and the geography of where it is built,” she added.

Noem did not provide details on the wall’s construction cost. The One Big Beautiful Bill, signed into law by Trump last month, allocated about $46.5 billion for the construction of a wall along the border with Mexico.

Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border after taking office for a second term on Jan. 20, directing the deployment of armed forces to assist with border security efforts.

Under the declaration, Noem and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth were ordered to take “all appropriate action” to construct more physical barriers along the border. Following that order, Noem issued a waiver in April that enabled the immediate construction of 2.5 miles of border in California. 

Trump has signed several executive actions aimed at deterring illegal immigration, including a memo authorizing the military to take control of land along the U.S.–Mexico border.

Data released by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) last month shows that illegal border crossings fell to their lowest level in June, with no parole releases of illegal immigrants.

There were 25,228 total encounters nationwide in June, down from 29,478 the previous month, marking the lowest monthly total ever recorded by CBP, the agency stated.

Border Patrol apprehensions nationwide also dropped to a historic low, with 8,024 apprehensions recorded, compared with 10,357 in May, according to the agency.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 11:45

AIA: "Business at architecture firms remains soft" in July

Calculated Risk -

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.

From the AIA: ABI July 2025: Business at architecture firms remains soft
The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month was below 50 for 31 out of the last 34 months, with a score of 46.2, as a majority of firms are still seeing declining billings. There are signs of hope ahead, as inquiries into new work grew slowly but steadily this month, following a brief three-month pause earlier this year. However, the value of newly signed design contracts at firms declined again in July, as firms continue to struggle to convert inquiries into contracts for new projects. This has been an issue for nearly as long as billings have been declining and reflects how soft business has been at many firms over the last two and a half years.

Billings continued to decline at firms in all regions of the country in July. Although conditions in the South looked like they were improving earlier this summer, the share of firms reporting a decline in billings increased this month. Billings remained softest at firms located in the Midwest for the third consecutive month. Business conditions continued to improve at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization this month, where there was nearly an equal share of firms reporting an increase in billings as reporting a decline for the second consecutive month. Firms with an institutional specialization also saw some encouraging signs, although business softened further at firms with a multifamily residential specialization in July.
...
The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months.
emphasis added
• Northeast (47.8); Midwest (45.1); South (47.5); West (46.4)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (49.9); institutional (47.9); multifamily residential (43.7)

AIA Architecture Billing Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 46.2 in July, down from 46.8 in June.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.
This index has indicated contraction for 31 of the last 34 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026.
Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 36 consecutive months.  This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.

At the Money: Buying Your Own Jet

The Big Picture -

 

 

At The Money: What Does it Take to Buy Your Own Jet? (August 20, 2025)

Have you ever wondered what it was like to own your own private plane? It may not be as out of reach as you imagine. Sure, some people spend $50 million or more, but there is a plane for nearly every budget.

Full transcript below.

~~~

About this week’s guest:

Preston Holland is the founder of Prestige Aircraft Finance and hosts a weekly Private Aviation Podcast, “The VIP Seat.” He writes the newsletter “Private Jet Insider,” providing advice and strategies to help clients navigate private aviation.

For more info, see:

Professional Bio

LinkedIn

Twitter

~~~

 

Find all of the previous At the Money episodes here, and in the MiB feed on Apple PodcastsYouTubeSpotify, and Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of all the songs I have used on At the Money on Spotify

 

 

 

TRANSCRIPT:

 

Intro: I wish that I could fly Into the sky So very high Just like a dragonfly I’d fly above the trees Over the seas In all degrees To anywhere I please Oh, I want to get away…

Have you ever wondered what it was like to own your own private plane? It may not be as outta reach as you imagine. Sure. Some people spend $50 million or more, but there’s a plane for nearly every budget.

Let’s speak with Preston Holland. He’s the founder of Prestige Aircraft Finance. He also hosts a weekly private aviation podcast called the VIP seat and his author of the newsletter, Private Jet Insider, which provides advice and strategies to help clients navigate private aviation.

Barry Ritholtz: Let’s just keep it simple. Do I need to be a billionaire to own my own plane?

Preston Holland: You don’t need to be a billionaire and actually most of my clients are not billionaires.

In order to own an aircraft one that you’re gonna sit in the back. You’re going to have flown professionally for you, typically, what I’m seeing is a net worth of somewhere between a $100-$200 million as kind of the starting point. And so not only is net worth something to consider, but also what does this do for my tax strategy and tax planning? How am I going to use bonus depreciation to my benefit? There’s a lot of other things that come with this and what, how much cash flow does my business spin off?

But generally speaking, when we’re thinking about that, it’s, it’s really in the $100-200 million mark before you’re starting to buy something like a light jet or maybe a mid-size jet.

Barry Ritholtz:  There are a handful of watches you can buy in a handful of very specific sports cars that sell for more on the secondary market than MSRP. My assumption with Jets is that there’s depreciation in the used market, not appreciation. Is that a factor here, or do most of these jets go through the normal straight-line depreciation process, like a boat as the hours add up?

Preston Holland: The answer is generally yes to that. Let me add two caveats. One is COVID – and if you watch the valuation of aircraft between 2018, 2019, and 2021 – they appreciated significantly. There’s a lot of people that were selling their airplanes in 2021 for what they bought or more than what they bought. In 2018, 2019. General market trends definitely matters in this scenario.

But generally speaking, over a lifetime, there is a real depreciation factor you sell for less than what you bought it for.  And the only nuance to that is in a few make and models and in a very short period of time, post-delivery.

Right now, if you look at the overall ecosystem, I can think of off the top of my head three models in which that’s happening, and they’re driven by a few kind of different forces.

One is the Phenom 300. The Phenom 300 is an excellent light aircraft, and it is loved by charter operators. It’s loved by owners, and the contract price that you bought it for two years ago while you waited in line, oftentimes you can take possession of it and you flip it immediately and actually get a premium above and beyond. That market specifically, it’s happening a lot.

The Prater 500 and the Prater 600, which are also a rare product are experiencing similar but not quite as dramatic to that.

The Pilatus PC 12 market has experienced that over the last couple of years. The wait list for a Pilatus PC 12 is five years. Wow. If you wanted to buy a brand new PC 12 right now, and you got in line, you’d be waiting five years, and so for the first couple of years, you may be able to fly it for a little bit and then get out of it a little higher than what you have.

Barry Ritholtz: I imagine the range of private aircraft is very different from what I see in luxury automobiles. The sizes vary a lot. How many people they can carry, how far they can fly, how fast they can go. How broad are the ranges of private planes, and how big is the price range from small regional planes to cross-Atlantic type of jets?

Preston Holland: Let me start with the ratio of size to range. ’cause those two things actually play with each other.

You have light jets, which are usually really good for regional travel, so this is for people who are flying from Atlanta to Charleston. There are people flying from New York to Chicago, right? Not terribly far as the crow flies. Um, those light jets, you know, are not necessarily gonna do cross-country type activities, but they’re gonna be really good for that.

When you’re thinking about how much am I going to spend, there’s also a very wide range.

I would say, just to give you a really broad range — you’re kind of get in price for a jet, and this is, you’re talking pretty old, pretty small, it is gonna be around 1 million to $2 million.

The top end of the market is gonna be what Jeff Bezos just took delivery of which is a G700 at $75 million sticker, and it’s everything in between.

Barry Ritholtz: What are the other costs and responsibilities beyond the purchase price? What do people who purchase a plane need to think about and budget for?

Preston Holland: So the framework to think about this is the difference between fixed costs and variable costs. In the same way, if you’re gonna draw the boat analogy, whether you boat one day a year, or 365 days a year, there’s a certain set of costs. That are constant and you’re gonna have to pay them whether you use it a lot or you don’t use it.

We refer to those as fixed costs, right? So whenever you see somebody say, what’s the fixed cost of this airplane? That is typically crew expense. That is your pilot expense, that is your training expense ‘cause your pilots have to be trained in the aircraft. There’s aircraft management, which is you’re paying a company, a third party company to basically it’s a property manager for your jet. (That is the best comparison. It’s not a one for one comparison, but it’s pretty close).

The hangar cost, so very, you’re in New York. I’m sorry to break it to you, but hangar costs in your neck of the woods is very expensive, but hangar costs, you gotta pay it whether you’re, whether you’re flying the airplane or not; your insurance cost is gonna be a percentage of full value, liability, value, things like that.

And then there’s some other miscellaneous fees, there’s subscriptions, there’s NAV-aides, there’s things like that that fixed costs will range. In the kind of light jet world, 400 to $500,000 a year, and then when you get up into the large aircraft, you may have fixed costs north of a million dollars. If you have to have multiple captains for your aircraft, you’re flying a lot. Things like that.

Barry Ritholtz: What are the variable costs like?

Preston Holland: When you talk about variable costs, you touched on an important fact, which is the fuel.

There is Jet A Fuel, which is much more expensive than what you put into your car, and there are ways to mitigate that. You can get fuel contracts to get you a discount, but it kind of is what it is. You actually pay a lot of six, $7 a gallon, something like that, somewhere in there. Depends on what part of the country.

Barry Ritholtz: It can be as low as five and a half. It can be as high as eight and a half, like five and a half. I’ll put it into my cars. I mean, I’m, I’m okay with that. People don’t realize when you’re flying a jet, even regionally, you’re burning through hundreds of gallons, if not thousands of gallons of fuel. What is the hourly fuel cost for A mid-size jet?
Preston Holland: I actually, I have a tool, uh, that a friend of mine built is called AVI Cost. And, I use that to do all of my calculations. So the citation XLS, which burns 227 gallons per hour, you have the CJ four, which burns 198 gallons per hour. The Challenger 300, which burns 200. 80 gallons per hour.

Once you start getting up into your large aircraft, let’s say your Global 5,000, which is an aircraft that can easily do New York to London, it can do New York to Paris. Uh, you’re burning 490 gallons of fuel per hour. So it ranges significantly on how much fuel you’re burning.

There’s also in the fuel burn, it’s not a one-to-one, you’re not gonna save a lot of money, but if you’re going faster and burning more fuel, like there’s a coefficient there, sure there’s some math to do. But for instance, right, if we assume $6 and 25 cents per hour, the global 5,000 is burning $3,000 of fuel per hour. Where, where do we wanna travel?

Barry Ritholtz: New York, to LA.

Preston Holland: We’re gonna leave out of Teterboro Airport because we are not gonna deal with the Port Authority and we’re gonna go to John Wayne, which is SNA. Yep. ’cause we’re also not gonna deal with LAX. We’re gonna take four people with us.

We are gonna fly the global 5,000. It is 2100 miles nautical miles. It’s gonna take us 4 hours and 40 minutes approximately in the global 5,000. And we are going to have $7,000 of variable cost per hour. Our total trip variable cost is gonna be $38,281 to go from New York to la.

Barry Ritholtz: We’re talking about fuel costs. We haven’t talked about maintenance costs. If you’re flying a hundred hours a year and you have a jet, what can you expect in, in maintenance expenses, assuming nothing goes wrong?

Preston Holland: A lot of times maintenance is actually calculated on an hourly basis, so you’re buying into a program. There is not a direct correlation to this in the real world.

The closest it would be is to an insurance product, but you’re paying on a consumption basis. So let’s say I am signed up for a maintenance program, a maintenance platform. One of them is called JSSI (Jet Services Solutions Inc.) They have a 100% coverage for my engines. That’s going to amortize my overhaul costs, which can be a couple of million bucks.

That has to happen every 2,500 or 5,000 hours. It’s gonna amortize it on a per hour basis, so I pay per hour, I pay to the service, and then they pay my chunky maintenance bills. Those engine programs vary. Pretty significantly, depending on how much coverage.

You can also put coverage on the parts on the aircraft program called Pro Parts, where you’re paying an hourly cost and then they’re basically, they’re taking the other side of the bet that you’re gonna have less maintenance and you’re taking the front side of the bet that says, I’m gonna have a lot of maintenance and they’re gonna pay for it.

Barry Ritholtz:  Or just that I wanna have a fixed set of costs and don’t have to worry about the possible surprises and are willing to pay a little more upfront.

Preston Holland: Exactly, You’re, you’re willing to pay kind of stretched out over time as opposed to large chunks. So instead of paying your $2 million overhauls, you’re gonna pay, you know, let’s say a thousand, $2,000 per hour.

So generally speaking, if you were to amortize your maintenance expense over your hourly, which is typically how everybody calculates this on the global 5,000 that we’re talking about, is gonna be around $4,100 per hour.

Barry Ritholtz: Let talk a few minutes about jets. If you wanna go cross the Atlantic. What size jet are we talking about?

Preston Holland: Yeah, you’re gonna have to go into the large cabin range. You’re gonna be looking at. The Gulfstream G 450 to unlock kind of London. I think it’s gonna be on the fringe for Paris. The G 550 gets it with no problem. The Gulfstream G six 50, the Bombardier Global 5,000, 6,000, 6,500. (There’s a lot of numbers) and so that you, you’re really gonna have to get into that large cabin to comfortably get nonstop from New York to Paris.

And that’s gonna, you know, possibly have a flight attendant. It’s gonna have at least two pilots. You’re gonna have. At least one nice size restroom, maybe a small restroom in the front. Uh, so that’s really getting up into your larger cabin aircraft, but that’s really how you’re gonna be able to get transcontinental.

Barry Ritholtz: I recall a few years ago there was a commercial pilot shortage. I have a buddy who I grew up with who flies Detroit to South Korea, and he was telling me they just can’t find enough pilots. Does that same shortage of qualified pilots exist in private aviation as well?

Preston Holland: The pilot situation in in private and business aviation has undergone some similar pressures to what it has in commercial aviation.

The price has gone up. The, the price of pilots has gone up. The price of training has gone up. Just everything associated with the pilot has gone up. When you look at kind of the shortage, you have to remember that every pilot has to go through what’s called a type rating. And every pilot has to go through what’s called recurrent training.

So if you are qualified to fly the Gulfstream G six 50, you have gone through the initial training, the initial type training, and you keep that current because you have a client that is, you know, kind of running through, flying that aircraft.

And then you have one of his buddies that calls and says, Can you come fly my Global 5,000? You would have to go through the initial type training and do the recurrent training, right? Every pilot can only fly so many types of aircraft. And so as you look at kind of the quote unquote pilot shortage, which there’s a lot of debate in the industry whether it even exists or not. If you look at that, you have to look at type ratings.

Now, when you’re looking at buying an aircraft, one thing that I advise clients to do a lot of times is follow the big dogs. Okay? You’ve got the big dogs, which is Net Jets. They’re the largest Flex Jet, which is second largest Vista Jet, which is pretty large.  (There are a lot of the other operators)

If you follow their make model, kind of their fleet composition, they train so many pilots. I mean, to put into perspective for those that follow publicly traded companies.  Berkshire Hathaway owns NetJets and Flight Safety. They just reported an up quarter 8% revenue growth. NetJets owns its own training facility. That’s how much, that’s how many slots that they were buying in the training facility. So they will actually leak out pilots for people that are like, you know what, I don’t want to do the seven days on seven days off thing. So, you know, Phenom 300 pilots relatively easy to come by.

Barry Ritholtz: So someone’s thinking about buying a private jet and they’re saying to themselves, gee, this sounds like a lot of responsibility and a lot of costs, and maybe it’s a little out of their budget. How significant is fractional ownership to the experience of owning your own jet?

Preston Holland: So fractional is similar, um, but it sometimes from time to time will feel a bit more like chartering than owning your own aircraft. Now, every fractional contract has slightly different language in their contracts of what’s called callout hours.

I’m gonna come to New York. You and I are gonna go for a sushi dinner in la. I know this great spot. We’re gonna go out there if we wanted to leave in two hours. We are not guaranteed availability on a fractional if we wanna leave in 12 hours. So let’s say we wanna leave tomorrow morning, guaranteed availability, and sometimes they will be able to swing something through and actually get you there when you own an airplane.

It is waiting for you at the hangar, and you determine how close your pilots have to be so that if you wanna leave in 20 minutes, you can do so. Right? And so that is the biggest difference in the experience. The other piece is the hassle that comes with hiring pilots and managing stuff.

I have a lot of billionaire clients and billionaire friends. That say, look, I don’t wanna mess with this. I just want the easy button. Fractional is the easy button. Like at the end of the day, you’re paying somebody to deal with all the headache and you show up and you get on the airplane and you go, you’re not having to say, ah, well I, I’ve got pilot turnover. It really is the easy button, which is where that fills in the market. Not only can you save kind of on your gross cost, but even if you’re flying where it makes sense to fly private, you’re negating a lot of that stress.

Barry Ritholtz: So our last question, someone reaches out to you and says, Hey Preston, I’m thinking about buying my first plane. What sort of advice do you give to that person?

Preston Holland: Assemble a good transaction team. That is the number one thing that you have to do. Your transaction team typically looks like person number one is your broker. They’re gonna be your quarterback. It’s not dissimilar to buying a commercial property. They’re gonna find the aircraft, they’re gonna manage the process.

They’re gonna do all of your pre-buy inspections, everything like that. Two, your attorney is probably pretty good in house. They know nothing about FAA law. You need to get an aviation specific attorney. In the grand scheme of things, it’s gonna be similar pricing to any other specialized attorney, but it’s gonna make sure you, your in-house attorney is gonna pull their hair out, try to figure out how to do this, where the attorney aviation attorney’s gonna be easy. Third aviation tax consultant of some sort. A few different firms that specialize in aviation tax. Your CPA probably knows how to run your books and make sure that everything’s good. They don’t understand the concept of “truth in leasing” and subleases and “leasing between all of the known entities” and how do you not get flagged by the FAA to illegally charter? So get a tax consultant just to makes your life easier.

And the last one is a financier. So that’s what my firm does. If you’re paying cash, we’re not necessarily in the equation, but if you’re, if you’re gonna finance your aircraft. You may call your bank and they may do it for you. They may not some of the larger banks don’t necessarily want to do older aircraft or smaller aircraft, and so then you’re kind of left wondering, what am I gonna do? How am I gonna finance this?

We basically run an RFP process for you and make sure that we can kind of drive your rate down, stretch out your amortization, drive your down payment down, whatever your goals are. We work with family offices, CFOs to make sure that the proper leverage amount at the right cost is put on the aircraft for whatever your goals are.

Barry Ritholtz:  Hey, you could save money with fractional ownership or with jet memberships, but for some people, the only way to go is by owning their own private aircraft.

I’m Barry Ritholtz, and you are listening to Bloomberg’s At the Money.

Outro: I want to get away I want to get away I want to get away I want to get away Yeah

 

~~~

Find our entire music playlist for At the Money on Spotify.

 

The post At the Money: Buying Your Own Jet appeared first on The Big Picture.

In Live CNBC Audition, Jefferies' Zervos Says Fed Not Independent, Powell Left-Leaning

Zero Hedge -

In Live CNBC Audition, Jefferies' Zervos Says Fed Not Independent, Powell Left-Leaning

David Zervos, the Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, has garnered significant attention as a potential candidate for the role of Federal Reserve Chair, amid increasing activity on prediction markets. 

This morning he placed his flag firmly in the ground as a front-runner and most assuredly got President Trump's attention when he said during a CNBC interview that it's inaccurate to describe the US central bank as independent, and moreover, 'Wall Street Jesus' (as he has been called given his hirsute characteristics) described the outgoing Fed chief as aligned with the political left.

“The Fed has never been independent, and the political pressures on the Fed have always been growing and continue to grow,” Zervos said on CNBC.

He then went further:

“I think he’s actually quite a bit dependent,” Zervos said of Powell.

“He’s operating politically from the left. Or, let’s put it this way, from the anti-Trump side.”

He highlighted pressure from Democratic lawmakers in recent years on monetary policymakers to lower interest rates.

History features episodes of Treasury secretaries and administrations “behind the scenes” trying to influence Fed chairs, Zervos also said.

Watch the full exchange here (with Andrew Ross Sorkin unable to contain his own 'independence')...

The Jefferies strategist is no stranger to the limelight as some may remember he refused to cut his hair until Fed Chair Powell cut interest rates...

...which he did in 2019...

After which appears to have discovered Ozempic (picture here with Kellyanne Conway who he reportedly dated for a time)...

Zervos' odds are on the rise across prediction markets with PolyMarket seeing a big spike yesterday and now Zervos is up to the 3rd place...

Zervos also repeated his argument that the steady contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet in recent years has left monetary policy more restrictive than many perceive - adding to the case for lowering rates.

“You’re left now with rates at a much more restrictive rate, without that extra kicker from the balance sheet,” Zervos said.

“So we really need to get rates back toward a more neutral level.”

Music to President Trump's ears...

Professional subscribers can read David's full recent notes here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 11:10

In Live CNBC Audition, Jefferies' Zervos Says Fed Not Independent, Powell Left-Leaning

Zero Hedge -

In Live CNBC Audition, Jefferies' Zervos Says Fed Not Independent, Powell Left-Leaning

David Zervos, the Chief Market Strategist at Jefferies, has garnered significant attention as a potential candidate for the role of Federal Reserve Chair, amid increasing activity on prediction markets. 

This morning he placed his flag firmly in the ground as a front-runner and most assuredly got President Trump's attention when he said during a CNBC interview that it's inaccurate to describe the US central bank as independent, and moreover, 'Wall Street Jesus' (as he has been called given his hirsute characteristics) described the outgoing Fed chief as aligned with the political left.

“The Fed has never been independent, and the political pressures on the Fed have always been growing and continue to grow,” Zervos said on CNBC.

He then went further:

“I think he’s actually quite a bit dependent,” Zervos said of Powell.

“He’s operating politically from the left. Or, let’s put it this way, from the anti-Trump side.”

He highlighted pressure from Democratic lawmakers in recent years on monetary policymakers to lower interest rates.

History features episodes of Treasury secretaries and administrations “behind the scenes” trying to influence Fed chairs, Zervos also said.

Watch the full exchange here (with Andrew Ross Sorkin unable to contain his own 'independence')...

The Jefferies strategist is no stranger to the limelight as some may remember he refused to cut his hair until Fed Chair Powell cut interest rates...

...which he did in 2019...

After which appears to have discovered Ozempic (picture here with Kellyanne Conway who he reportedly dated for a time)...

Zervos' odds are on the rise across prediction markets with PolyMarket seeing a big spike yesterday and now Zervos is up to the 3rd place...

Zervos also repeated his argument that the steady contraction of the Fed’s balance sheet in recent years has left monetary policy more restrictive than many perceive - adding to the case for lowering rates.

“You’re left now with rates at a much more restrictive rate, without that extra kicker from the balance sheet,” Zervos said.

“So we really need to get rates back toward a more neutral level.”

Music to President Trump's ears...

Professional subscribers can read David's full recent notes here...

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 11:10

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises

Zero Hedge -

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises

Oil prices are higher this morning, bucking a broadly risk-off sentiment across markets, following API's report overnight showing US crude stockpiles declined last week, while traders assessed negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“Focus is gradually shifting back towards fundamentals,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.

Declining US inventories in EIA data later “could lend support, as many fear a significant inventory build in the coming quarters.”

The drop shows summer demand remains solid even as supply is on the rise.

Investors are watching on progress toward a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine following a series of high-level talks brokered by President Donald Trump.

"The latest series of meetings aimed at brokering peace in Ukraine was also weighed by financial markets, but had a more pronounced impact on oil. Intense talks about ending hostilities, however elusive, raised the spectre of Russia re-entering the international market. That was until overnight, as Russia, based on comments from its foreign minister, appears less than enthusiastic about a meeting with the Ukrainian leader, a prerequisite for any potential peace," PVM Oil Associates noted.

Any eventual peace deal could lead to fewer restrictions on Russia’s crude exports, although Moscow has largely kept its oil flowing despite an array of sanctions.

API

  • Crude -2.4mm (-1.2mm exp)

  • Cushing

  • Gasoline +1mm

  • Distillates +500k

DOE

  • Crude -6.01mm (biggest draw since June)

  • Cushing +419k

  • Gasoline -2.72mm

  • Distillates +2.34mm

Official data confirmed API's reported drawdown in crude stocks (but far larger at over 6mm barrels - the biggest draw since the start of June). Stocks at the Cushing Hub rose for the 7th straight week while Gasoline inventories fell for the 5th straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite another 223k barrel addition to the SPR, total US crude commercial stocks fell significantly...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production edged higher as the rig count stabilized its declining trend...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding gains after the big crude draw...

Source: Bloomberg

The longer-term outlook for the oil market looks bearish, with expectations for a glut later in 2025 as OPEC+ returns barrels and as Trump’s trade policies spark concerns about demand. Futures are down more than 10% this year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 10:38

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises

Zero Hedge -

WTI Holds Gains After Biggest Crude Draw In Over 2 Months, US Production Rises

Oil prices are higher this morning, bucking a broadly risk-off sentiment across markets, following API's report overnight showing US crude stockpiles declined last week, while traders assessed negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“Focus is gradually shifting back towards fundamentals,” said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at A/S Global Risk Management.

Declining US inventories in EIA data later “could lend support, as many fear a significant inventory build in the coming quarters.”

The drop shows summer demand remains solid even as supply is on the rise.

Investors are watching on progress toward a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine following a series of high-level talks brokered by President Donald Trump.

"The latest series of meetings aimed at brokering peace in Ukraine was also weighed by financial markets, but had a more pronounced impact on oil. Intense talks about ending hostilities, however elusive, raised the spectre of Russia re-entering the international market. That was until overnight, as Russia, based on comments from its foreign minister, appears less than enthusiastic about a meeting with the Ukrainian leader, a prerequisite for any potential peace," PVM Oil Associates noted.

Any eventual peace deal could lead to fewer restrictions on Russia’s crude exports, although Moscow has largely kept its oil flowing despite an array of sanctions.

API

  • Crude -2.4mm (-1.2mm exp)

  • Cushing

  • Gasoline +1mm

  • Distillates +500k

DOE

  • Crude -6.01mm (biggest draw since June)

  • Cushing +419k

  • Gasoline -2.72mm

  • Distillates +2.34mm

Official data confirmed API's reported drawdown in crude stocks (but far larger at over 6mm barrels - the biggest draw since the start of June). Stocks at the Cushing Hub rose for the 7th straight week while Gasoline inventories fell for the 5th straight week...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite another 223k barrel addition to the SPR, total US crude commercial stocks fell significantly...

Source: Bloomberg

US Crude production edged higher as the rig count stabilized its declining trend...

Source: Bloomberg

WTI is holding gains after the big crude draw...

Source: Bloomberg

The longer-term outlook for the oil market looks bearish, with expectations for a glut later in 2025 as OPEC+ returns barrels and as Trump’s trade policies spark concerns about demand. Futures are down more than 10% this year.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 10:38

California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 4th Straight Month

Calculated Risk -

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Down Year-over-year for 4th Straight Month

A brief excerpt:
The NAR is scheduled to release July Existing Home sales on Thursday, August 21st at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.92 million SAAR, down from 3.93 million last month. Last year, the NAR reported sales in July 2024 at 3.98 million SAAR. Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 3.92 million SAAR.

California reports Seasonally Adjusted (SA) sales and some measures of inventory whereas most of the local is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales trail last year’s levels for fourth straight month, C.A.R. says
July home sales activity dipped 1.0 percent from the 264,400 homes sold in June and was down 4.1 percent from a year ago, when 272,990 homes were sold on an annualized basis.
The NAR’s July existing home sales report will likely show a 3-handle (be under 4 million SAAR) for the 2nd consecutive month.
There is much more in the article.

American Academy Of Pediatrics Pushes COVID-19 Vax For All Infants

Zero Hedge -

American Academy Of Pediatrics Pushes COVID-19 Vax For All Infants

In stark contrast to reality, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) - which is heavily funded by pharmaceutical companies, recommended on Tuesday that young children, including infants, receive the COVID-19 vaccine despite the fact that children are minimally impacted by the virus, the fact that the vaccine doesn't prevent one from contracting it, and that it largely only helps the elderly and medically fragile from severe cases.

A 1-year-old child receives a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination in Seattle, Wash., on June 21, 2022. David Ryder/Getty Images

According to the organization, all children ages 6-23 months should receive the COVID-19 vaccine - regardless of whether they have natural immunity from prior infection, unless they have a contraindication such as a history of severe allergic reaction to a vaccine ingredient. 

While the recommendation is universal, the group said in a statement that their recommendation stems from infants and other children who are "at high risk for severe COVID-19."

As the Epoch Times notes further, the organization pointed, in part, to a paper it published that found that among children hospitalized for COVID-19 from fall 2022 to spring 2024, the majority of those younger than 2 had no underlying conditions.

Of note, the paper cited surveyed 2,490 children who were hospitalized with COVID-19, effectively a rounding error. 

A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services, the CDC’s parent agency, told The Epoch Times in an email that the AAP, which receives funding from vaccine manufacturers, should strengthen its conflict-of-interest safeguards.

“By bypassing the CDC’s advisory process and freelancing its own recommendations, while smearing those who demand accountability, the AAP is putting commercial interests ahead of public health and politics above America’s children,” Andrew Nixon, the spokesman, said.

The CDC used to recommend that all children, except for those younger than 6 months, receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

In May, under orders from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the CDC stopped recommending the vaccine for healthy children and pregnant women.

The CDC’s schedule currently states that children with moderately or severely compromised immune systems should receive a vaccine, even if they’ve been vaccinated before.

Children who do not have weakened immune systems “may receive COVID-19 vaccination, informed by the clinical judgment of a healthcare provider and personal preference and circumstances,” the schedule states.

“There’s no evidence healthy kids need it today, and most countries have stopped recommending it for children,” Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary said when the schedule was changed.

Many countries, including the UK and Australia, no longer recommend COVID-19 vaccines for most or all children.

The AAP, which previously recommended COVID-19 vaccination for all children 6 months and older, now advises the vaccine for people ages 2 to 18 who meet one of four criteria: they are at high risk of severe illness, live in crowded settings such as long-term care facilities, have never been vaccinated against COVID-19, or live with someone at high risk.

Children who do not fall into any of those categories are not advised to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. At the same time, if a parent or guardian wishes, the child “should be offered” a single dose, according to the recommendations.

“The AAP will continue to provide recommendations for immunizations that are rooted in science and are in the best interest of the health of infants, children and adolescents,” Dr. Susan Kressly, AAP’s president, said in a statement.

AAP has about 67,000 members, including pediatricians, in the United States and other countries. Its funders include Pfizer and Moderna, which manufacture two of the three COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States.

Insurance Coverage

After the government narrowed its recommendations for COVID-19 vaccines, the AAP and some other organizations said they were worried that insurers would stop covering vaccines for children and pregnant women.

Many insurers, as well as Medicaid and Medicare, are required to cover vaccines in the CDC’s schedule.

“As we navigate an evolving health care landscape, maintaining robust immunization coverage continues to be a top priority for protecting both individual and community health,” AHIP, a trade group for insurers, said in a joint statement after the COVID-19 vaccine recommendations were changed.

“We are committed to ongoing coverage of vaccines to ensure access and affordability for this respiratory virus season. We encourage all Americans to talk to their health care provider about vaccines.”

Kressly said on Tuesday that the AAP is urging insurers to cover the vaccines in the organization’s schedule.

AAP is committed to working with our partners at the local, state and federal levels to make sure every child, in every community has access to vaccines,” she said.

Some states have maintained universal COVID-19 vaccine recommendations.

Other critics of the CDC’s updated schedule also plan on releasing their own recommendations.

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, for instance, said it will release recommendations on maternal immunizations at the end of the summer in collaboration with the Vaccine Integrity Project, an effort established this year by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy and led by Dr. Michael Osterholm, a former adviser to President Joe Biden.

The project has a presentation scheduled for Aug. 19 titled “From Data to Decisions: The Evidence Base for 2025 Fall/Winter Immunizations.”

Influenza Recommendations

The AAP’s recommendations largely align with the CDC’s recommendations when it comes to influenza vaccination.

Both advise one or two doses annually starting at 6 months of age, with a transition to one dose annually starting around age 11.

The CDC, though, only recommends influenza vaccines that are free of thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative.

The CDC’s vaccine advisory committee told the agency over the summer it should issue a recommendation against thimerosal-containing flu vaccines. Kennedy accepted the recommendation in July.

Advisers and Kennedy said they wanted to act to prevent mercury accumulation in children. Studies have found links between thimerosal and health problems, such as a paper that found an association between thimerosal exposure and tics.

The AAP was among the groups that opposed the move, stating that there were no health concerns with the amount of mercury present in the vaccines.

The organization said in a policy statement that it recommends “any licensed influenza vaccine product appropriate for age and health status and does not prefer one product over another.” It said that “influenza vaccination should not be delayed to obtain a specific product, including a thimerosal-free product.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 10:20

American Academy Of Pediatrics Pushes COVID-19 Vax For All Infants

Zero Hedge -

American Academy Of Pediatrics Pushes COVID-19 Vax For All Infants

In stark contrast to reality, the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) - which is heavily funded by pharmaceutical companies, recommended on Tuesday that young children, including infants, receive the COVID-19 vaccine despite the fact that children are minimally impacted by the virus, the fact that the vaccine doesn't prevent one from contracting it, and that it largely only helps the elderly and medically fragile from severe cases.

A 1-year-old child receives a Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination in Seattle, Wash., on June 21, 2022. David Ryder/Getty Images

According to the organization, all children ages 6-23 months should receive the COVID-19 vaccine - regardless of whether they have natural immunity from prior infection, unless they have a contraindication such as a history of severe allergic reaction to a vaccine ingredient. 

While the recommendation is universal, the group said in a statement that their recommendation stems from infants and other children who are "at high risk for severe COVID-19."

As the Epoch Times notes further, the organization pointed, in part, to a paper it published that found that among children hospitalized for COVID-19 from fall 2022 to spring 2024, the majority of those younger than 2 had no underlying conditions.

Of note, the paper cited surveyed 2,490 children who were hospitalized with COVID-19, effectively a rounding error. 

A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services, the CDC’s parent agency, told The Epoch Times in an email that the AAP, which receives funding from vaccine manufacturers, should strengthen its conflict-of-interest safeguards.

“By bypassing the CDC’s advisory process and freelancing its own recommendations, while smearing those who demand accountability, the AAP is putting commercial interests ahead of public health and politics above America’s children,” Andrew Nixon, the spokesman, said.

The CDC used to recommend that all children, except for those younger than 6 months, receive a COVID-19 vaccine.

In May, under orders from Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the CDC stopped recommending the vaccine for healthy children and pregnant women.

The CDC’s schedule currently states that children with moderately or severely compromised immune systems should receive a vaccine, even if they’ve been vaccinated before.

Children who do not have weakened immune systems “may receive COVID-19 vaccination, informed by the clinical judgment of a healthcare provider and personal preference and circumstances,” the schedule states.

“There’s no evidence healthy kids need it today, and most countries have stopped recommending it for children,” Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Marty Makary said when the schedule was changed.

Many countries, including the UK and Australia, no longer recommend COVID-19 vaccines for most or all children.

The AAP, which previously recommended COVID-19 vaccination for all children 6 months and older, now advises the vaccine for people ages 2 to 18 who meet one of four criteria: they are at high risk of severe illness, live in crowded settings such as long-term care facilities, have never been vaccinated against COVID-19, or live with someone at high risk.

Children who do not fall into any of those categories are not advised to receive a COVID-19 vaccine. At the same time, if a parent or guardian wishes, the child “should be offered” a single dose, according to the recommendations.

“The AAP will continue to provide recommendations for immunizations that are rooted in science and are in the best interest of the health of infants, children and adolescents,” Dr. Susan Kressly, AAP’s president, said in a statement.

AAP has about 67,000 members, including pediatricians, in the United States and other countries. Its funders include Pfizer and Moderna, which manufacture two of the three COVID-19 vaccines available in the United States.

Insurance Coverage

After the government narrowed its recommendations for COVID-19 vaccines, the AAP and some other organizations said they were worried that insurers would stop covering vaccines for children and pregnant women.

Many insurers, as well as Medicaid and Medicare, are required to cover vaccines in the CDC’s schedule.

“As we navigate an evolving health care landscape, maintaining robust immunization coverage continues to be a top priority for protecting both individual and community health,” AHIP, a trade group for insurers, said in a joint statement after the COVID-19 vaccine recommendations were changed.

“We are committed to ongoing coverage of vaccines to ensure access and affordability for this respiratory virus season. We encourage all Americans to talk to their health care provider about vaccines.”

Kressly said on Tuesday that the AAP is urging insurers to cover the vaccines in the organization’s schedule.

AAP is committed to working with our partners at the local, state and federal levels to make sure every child, in every community has access to vaccines,” she said.

Some states have maintained universal COVID-19 vaccine recommendations.

Other critics of the CDC’s updated schedule also plan on releasing their own recommendations.

The American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, for instance, said it will release recommendations on maternal immunizations at the end of the summer in collaboration with the Vaccine Integrity Project, an effort established this year by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy and led by Dr. Michael Osterholm, a former adviser to President Joe Biden.

The project has a presentation scheduled for Aug. 19 titled “From Data to Decisions: The Evidence Base for 2025 Fall/Winter Immunizations.”

Influenza Recommendations

The AAP’s recommendations largely align with the CDC’s recommendations when it comes to influenza vaccination.

Both advise one or two doses annually starting at 6 months of age, with a transition to one dose annually starting around age 11.

The CDC, though, only recommends influenza vaccines that are free of thimerosal, a mercury-based preservative.

The CDC’s vaccine advisory committee told the agency over the summer it should issue a recommendation against thimerosal-containing flu vaccines. Kennedy accepted the recommendation in July.

Advisers and Kennedy said they wanted to act to prevent mercury accumulation in children. Studies have found links between thimerosal and health problems, such as a paper that found an association between thimerosal exposure and tics.

The AAP was among the groups that opposed the move, stating that there were no health concerns with the amount of mercury present in the vaccines.

The organization said in a policy statement that it recommends “any licensed influenza vaccine product appropriate for age and health status and does not prefer one product over another.” It said that “influenza vaccination should not be delayed to obtain a specific product, including a thimerosal-free product.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 10:20

Too Late? Nervous Banking Lobby Fights To Change GENIUS Act

Zero Hedge -

Too Late? Nervous Banking Lobby Fights To Change GENIUS Act

Authored by Aaron Wood via CoinTelegraph.com,

The US banking lobby isn’t keen on interest-bearing stablecoins or their supposed challenge to financial systems — but it may be too late to amend these “loopholes” in the GENIUS Act.

The Banking Policy Institute (BPI), an advocacy group for the banking industry led by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, wrote a letter to Congress last week, arguing that stablecoins present a risk to existing credit systems. 

The BPI urged regulators to close supposed loopholes in the GENIUS Act, a new law regulating the stablecoin industry in the US, lest a shift from bank deposits increase lending costs and reduce loans to businesses. 

The bank lobby holds considerable sway in Washington, and while it may be able to complicate lawmaking, some argue that it’s delaying the inevitable: a future denominated in stablecoins. 

Source: Bank Policy Institute

Banks say stablecoin interest is a threat

Prominent members in the crypto industry have long argued that stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer users interest. In March, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said interest-bearing stablecoins would give users more control over financial products. 

But according to Andrew Rossow, policy and public affairs attorney, the novelty of onchain interest means problems like solvency, liquidity and investor protection aren’t straightforward.

“Claims of ‘easy compliance’ overlook the complex realities of ensuring proper reserve backing, Anti-Money Laundering/Know Your Customer and prudential oversight simultaneously,” he told Cointelegraph.

The BPI’s letter addressed these concerns directly. It particularly called into question a so-called “loophole” in Sec. 4(a)(11) of GENIUS, which prohibits stablecoin issuers from paying “any form of interest or yield (whether in cash, tokens, or other consideration) solely in connection with the holding, use, or retention of such payment stablecoin.”

This section seems to ban yielding stablecoins, but according to Aaron Brogan, founder of crypto-focused law firm Brogan Law, “many believe that it does not ban deals between exchanges and issuers.”

The ability for other firms, like exchanges, to allow interest on stablecoins is based on factors other than “holding use or retention” as mentioned in GENIUS. The word “solely” in the GENIUS Act is a “powerful legal limiter, and it really does mean that if there is any other basis for the deals, they probably don’t qualify,” he told Cointelegraph.

So, while GENIUS is “written to appear quite complete, the prohibition on interest is probably actually relatively porous.”

Stablecoins, which can often offer much higher interest than traditional bank offerings, “do not substitute for bank deposits, money market funds or investment products, and payment stablecoin issuers are not regulated, supervised or examined in the same way,” said the BPI.

It said that this poses a threat to existing credit models. As things stand, customer deposits allow banks to create a significant portion of the money supply through loans and lines of credit.

“Incentivizing a shift from bank deposits and money market funds to stablecoins would end up increasing lending costs and reducing loans to businesses and consumer households,” the BPI stated.

The banking industry’s concerns may have some grounding, said Rossow. “The bank lobby’s strongest argument is that allowing stablecoin issuers to pay interest risks would create unregulated ‘shadow banks,’ threatening financial stability and consumer safety. Without robust capital, reserve requirements and oversight, stablecoin issuers could trigger liquidity crises and expose users to even more risk,” he said.

However, the banks’ position begins to fall apart when it calls issuer-paid interest on stablecoins “inherently dangerous,” said Rossow. Given that some proposals from the crypto industry show it’s possible to allow issuer interest with proper regulation, “a total ban may seem more about protecting traditional banks than balanced progress.”

Will the GENIUS Act be amended?

Pursuing self-interest at the expense of the greater good is essentially taken for granted in Washington. In this regard, powerful and conflicting influences in the policymaking process can “dilute legislation and regulation, leading to a policy gridlock yielding compromises that would most likely please neither side entirely, only to create further market uncertainty,” said Rossow.

He said that, prior to the 2008 financial crisis, mortgage lenders blocked more strict regulations on predatory lending, directly contributing to the financial risk-taking that led to the financial system’s collapse. 

“These lobbying battles only serve to widen the regulatory gaps and weaknesses that undermine our financial stability and consumer protections, further erode public confidence and, now more relevant than ever, our government’s ability to regulate impartially — especially when lobbying appears to grant preferential treatment to vested interests, hidden or not,” Rossow said.

But the banking industry’s ability to actually challenge stablecoins is limited, and it may just be attempting to challenge the inevitable, according to Brogan. It’s unlikely that the crypto industry will accept amendments to GENIUS, a law on which it’s already made concessions. 

Jake Chervinsky, chief legal officer of Variant, noted that the law already took bank lobby considerations into account. Source: Jake Chervinsky

“The bank lobby is tilting at windmills here. Sometimes you do see new language snuck into other legislation like pork, but I doubt something so significant could pass under the radar. I don’t expect more stablecoin legislation in this Congress,” he said. 

Rather, Brogan said that the banks were pushing back against the inevitable, drawing on the historical example of music executives decrying the rise of digital music and file sharing. 

“People never wanted to use banks to make payments, they just had to. Now, they don’t. Just like digital music files were better than CDs, disintermediated finance is better and easier than traditional banking,” he said in a recent blog post

The banking industry has considerable sway in Washington, but its concerns about stablecoins may be a day late and a dollar short. The crypto industry now has the ability to advocate for its own interests successfully and influentially, and it has done so in the form of GENIUS.

What remains to be seen is how this new financial order shakes out for everyday investors. Per the BPI, a shift toward stablecoins means “higher interest rates, fewer loans, and increased costs for Main Street businesses and households.”

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 09:40

Housing Market Cracks Widen: Top Siding Company Suffers Worst Stock Collapse In 50 Years

Zero Hedge -

Housing Market Cracks Widen: Top Siding Company Suffers Worst Stock Collapse In 50 Years

James Hardie Industries - the world's largest producer of fiber cement products, headquartered in Ireland and dual-listed in Sydney and New York - issued a grim housing outlook that sent its Sydney shares plunging the most in 50 years. The warning underscores deepening cracks emerging in the U.S. housing market under the continued weight of elevated interest rates. President Trump issued a new warning overnight about those rates "hurting" the housing industry. 

James Hardie generates about 70% of its revenue from North America. Its flagship product, HardiePlank, is widely used in residential housing as an alternative to wood or vinyl siding. That makes the company's earnings reports closely watched, given its heavy exposure to the U.S. housing market.

Its first-quarter results missed Wall Street expectations, highlighting ongoing uncertainty in the housing market. Quarterly profit dropped to $62.6 million, or 15 cents per share, from $155.3 million, or 36 cents, a year earlier. Adjusted EPS was 29 cents, below FactSet’s consensus of 33 cents, while revenue declined 9% to $899.9 million, also missing the $952.7 million estimate.

"The gloomy outlook reflects weaker-than-anticipated activity in single-family new construction throughout the summer, as well as challenging demand trends in the repair and remodel market," CEO Aaron Erter stated, adding, "It also factors in expectations for further inventory calibration by the company's channel partners in the remainder of the calendar year." 

"Uncertainty is a common thread throughout conversations with customer and contractor partners," Erter said, pointing out, "Homeowners are deferring large-ticket remodeling projects like re-siding, and affordability remains the key impediment to improvement in single-family new construction."

James Hardie shares are down over 30% in the US pre-open...

...the most since November 1973, following the dismal earnings report and mounting construction challenges across North America. 

James Hardie's results add to the red flags for traders materializing in the construction and property space, with lumber prices sliding in recent months. Also, Toll Brothers gave disappointing guidance. 

Meanwhile, President Trump fired off this Truth Social post in the overnight, "Could somebody please inform Jerome "Too Late" Powell that he is hurting the Housing Industry, very badly? People can't get a Mortgage because of him. There is no Inflation, and every sign is pointing to a major Rate Cut. "Too Late" is a disaster!" 

The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting will be held on September 16-17. Interest rate swaps have odds at about 84.5% of a 25bps cut. 

The downbeat outlook for the U.S. housing market and homeowners deferring large-ticket remodeling projects only suggests cracks are emerging. Maybe Trump is right. 
 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 09:20

Trump Demands Fed Governor "Must Resign Now" Amid Mortgage Fraud Probe

Zero Hedge -

Trump Demands Fed Governor "Must Resign Now" Amid Mortgage Fraud Probe

The director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency is urging Attorney General Pam Bondi to investigate Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook over a pair of mortgages, the latest in a series of moves by the Trump administration to increase legal scrutiny of Democratic figures and appointees.

FHFA Director Bill Pulte wrote a letter to Bondi and DOJ official Ed Martin on Aug. 15 suggesting that Cook may have committed a criminal offense. The letter alleges that Cook “falsified bank documents and property records to acquire more favorable loan terms, potentially committing mortgage fraud under the criminal statute.”

Bloomberg reports that Pulte said Cook took a mortgage on a property in Ann Arbor, Michigan, signing a mortgage agreement that stipulated she would use the property as her primary residence for at least a year.

Two weeks later, according to the letter, she took another mortgage on a Georgia property and also declared it would be her primary residence.

Pulte also called on Bondi to look into whether Cook misrepresented her circumstances by later listing the Georgia property for rental.

The letter includes copies of mortgage documents in Cook’s name, as well as an apparent rental listing from 2022, a little over a year after she bought the Georgia property.

And President Trump was swift to respond... demanding that "Cook must resign, now!!!"

...as the full court press to pack The Fed continues.

Cook was nominated to the Fed by President Joe Biden and took office in 2022, becoming the first Black woman to serve on the Fed’s board of governors.

She was later nominated by Biden for a full term, which expires in 2038.

Bloomberg reports that no charges have been filed and it’s not clear whether Bondi will investigate. The Justice Department declined comment. The Federal Reserve declined comment. Cook did not respond to requests for comment late Tuesday.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 08:45

Futures Drop For 4th Day As Momentum Unwind Continues

Zero Hedge -

Futures Drop For 4th Day As Momentum Unwind Continues

US equity futures are down and headed for a 4th day of losses, but trade well off session lows as markets assess if the sharp momentum selloff we have discussed for the past week will extend into today's session: the JPM Momentum Basket (JPMPURE Index) is down more than 7% since the CPI print while Goldman said it's time to resume buying momentum factor. As of 8:00am S&P futures are down 0.2%, after dipping 0.5% earlier in the session; Nasdaq futures are also down 0.2% after the index logged its second-biggest decline since April on Tuesday, with Mag7 names lower premarket ex-NVDA/MSFT; Defensives are outperforming Cyclicals. According to JPM "today feels like a test for the dip-buyers, as Flash PMIs tomorrow and Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday may prove to be market movers/narrative changers." The yield curve is twisting flatter with the USD not flat. Commodities are seeing a bid across all 3 complexes highlighted by WTI. The macro data today is mortgage applications and Fed Minutes with tomorrow delivering Flash PMIs, jobless data, leading index, and existing home sales. 

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are mostly lower (Nvidia +0.05%, Microsoft +0.1%, Tesla -0.3%, Alphabet -0.5%, Meta -0.4%, Amazon -0.4%, Apple -0.5%). Target plunged 10% after saying management still sees a sales decline of low-single digit percentage. The company also named veteran Michael Fiddelke as its next chief executive officer, betting that the insider will rejuvenate sales and help the storied retailer regain its footing. Here are the other notable premarket movers>

  • Analog Devices (ADI) rises 3% after the semiconductor-device company reported adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
  • Celldex Therapeutics (CLDX) falls 18% after the drug developer said it was discontinuing development of barzolvolimab in eosinophilic esophagitis after a Phase 2 study.
  • Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) declines 4% after being downgraded at JPMorgan to underweight from neutral, on expectations that vocational truck sales will soften over the coming quarters due to weak orders data.
  • Dayforce (DAY) rises 2% after the software firm said it’s in advanced discussions with Thoma Bravo regarding a potential acquisition for $70 per share.
  • Estee Lauder (EL) falls 7% after issuing an annual adjusted EPS forecast that trails expectations. The organic sales decline for 4Q was slightly worse than expected, driven by Skin Care and Makeup segments.
  • Hertz (HTZ) rises 10% after CNBC reported that the car-rental company will start selling pre-owned cars on Amazon Autos. Shares of Carvana (CVNA) decline 5%, while CarMax (KMX) drops 4%.
  • La-Z-Boy (LZB) falls 22% after the home furniture retailer posted weaker-than-expected first-quarter adjusted earnings per share.
  • Lowe’s Cos. (LOW) rises 3% after agreeing to buy Foundation Building Materials for about $8.8 billion in cash as it expands further beyond home-improvement supplies to serve more professional customers.
  • Novavax (NVAX) drops 7% after BofA Global Research downgraded the vaccine maker to underperform from neutral, citing a “bumpy road” ahead.
  • Nubank (NU) rises 2% as Citi double upgrades to buy from sell, with analysts saying the bank is now able to accelerate in key portfolios while maintaining good asset quality.
  • Rocket Pharmaceuticals (RCKT) falls 18% after announcing that the FDA lifted the clinical hold on the Phase 2 trial of RP-A501 for the treatment of Danon disease.
  • Toll Brothers (TOL) is down 2% after the luxury builder’s quarterly orders missed estimates as affordability challenges and economic uncertainty held back buyers.

Investors pared back positions in tech amid growing concern that the S&P 500’s recent record-breaking rally has run too far, too fast and has leaned heavily on a few growth leaders. That momentum will get a further test this week as focus turns to Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak on Friday with traders betting on a September cut in interest rates.

“This was a textbook case of profit-taking after a powerful tech rally,” wrote Bjarne Breinholt Thomsen, head of cross-asset strategy at Danske Bank A/S. “Yesterday’s move does not alter our tactical stance. On fundamentals alone, we would likely overweight tech. But when factoring in stretched positioning and valuations, we remain neutral.”

Investors are also waiting to hear whether Powell will validate current market expectations or counter them by stressing that fresh economic data arriving before the next policy meeting could alter the outlook. They’re also scanning for hints about how the Fed foresees the pace of rate cuts extending into next year.

“If we get an indication that they are more inclined to cutting interest rates, that will be more supportive again,” HSBC Head of APAC Equity Strategy Herald van der Linde said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

Europe's Stoxx 600 is slightly higher after erasing an earlier drop, and edges closer toward a new high after erasing losses.  Personal care stocks outperform, while industrials and construction shares are the biggest laggards. European tech stocks also decline. In the UK, money markets kept wagers on Bank of England interest-rate cuts broadly steady, seeing around a 40% chance of another reduction by year-end after inflation climbed for a second month in July. A full quarter-point cut had been expected earlier this month. Gilts rose, with the two-year yield falling four basis points at 3.93%. The pound fluctuated. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

  • Emmi gains 6.4%, the most since 2024, after the Swiss dairy producer published solid results in a challenging environment, with a beat on organic growth driven entirely by the Americas segment, according to Vontobel
  • Convatec shares rise as much as 6%, the most in two months, after the medical equipment manufacturer announced the start of a buyback program, with Morgan Stanley saying the announcement signals confidence
  • Sensirion rises as much as 11%, the most since April, after the semiconductor device manufacturer posted results that beat analysts’ estimates, with higher sales volumes attributed to US demand for a refrigerant sensor product
  • Ithaca Energy shares jumped as much as 8.6% to the highest level since February 2023 after the UK oil and gas company boosted its production forecast for the full year
  • ASR Nederland climbs as much as 2.5% to a record high after the Dutch insurance company released first-half results. Morgan Stanley said it was another strong print, while KBC highlighted the good performance in the Life unit
  • NEPI Rockcastle rallied as much as 3% in Johannesburg to its highest intraday level since Feb. 24 after the property investor posted Ebit for the first half that increased 10% year-on-year
  • Paradox Interactive gains as much as 4.7% after the Swedish video game company announced release dates for two highly anticipated game releases, Europa Universalis V and Vampire: The Masquerade - Bloodlines 2
  • Alcon drops as much as 11% in Zurich, the most since March 2020, after delivering sales growth below expectations in the second quarter and announcing downward revisions to its full-year net sales guidance
  • K+S falls as much as 3.3% as Berenberg double-downgrades to sell, with previous buy thesis no longer standing up due to expectations of “broadly lower” prices for agricultural commodities from 2026
  • Geberit falls as much as 4.3%, the most in more than four months, after the Swiss building materials firm reported a lower-than-expected Ebitda in the second quarter
  • European defense stocks remain under pressure this morning after Russian President Vladimir Putin “agreed to begin the next phase of the peace process,” according to White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt
  • UK housebuilder shares drop after inflation climbed for a second month in July, adding pressure on the Bank of England to reconsider its pace of interest-rate cuts
  • LINK Mobility falls as much as 9.4%, the most since November last year and trimming large YTD gains, after the Norwegian communications technology group reported its latest earnings. DNB Carnegie sees a “minor miss”
  • EVS Broadcast Equipment drops as much as 13%, the most since March 2020, as ING Bank describes the company’s first-half results as “very weak”

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, as technology shares tracked declines in US peers amid valuation concerns ahead of upcoming key events. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.7%, falling for the third consecutive session, with TSMC and Softbank among the biggest drags. Taiwan led declines, with South Korea and Japan also notably in the red. Risk-off mood has gripped markets ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expected to speak on Friday. Investors also await Nvidia’s earnings next week for indications on the health of the artificial intelligence boom that has driven gains in global tech shares. Meanwhile, New Zealand stocks climbed after the nation’s central bank lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. Indonesian stocks gained as the central bank surprised markets by cutting its benchmark rate for a second straight month and signaling more easing was on the table. Shares in India, Australia and China rose. 

In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index is flat; the pound adds 0.1% on modest CPI support. The kiwi lags, down more than 1% after the RBNZ cut rates and flagged further easing. The krona is little changed after the Riksbank held policy as expected.

In rates, treasuries are steady, with 10-year yields flat at 4.30%. Gilts lead a rally in European bonds even as UK inflation topped forecasts, sending 10-year yields 4 bps lower to 4.70%.

In commodities, Brent crude rose more than 1% to around $66.60 a barrel while spot gold climbs $10.

Today's US economic data calendar features FOMC minutes; the Fed speaker slate includes Governor Waller on payments at blockchain symposium at 11am and Atlanta Fed President Bostic at 3pm.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini -0.1%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini -0.2%
  • Russell 2000 mini little changed
  • Stoxx Europe 600 little changed
  • DAX -0.3%
  • CAC 40 little changed
  • 10-year Treasury yield little changed at 4.3%
  • VIX +0.4 points at 15.94
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1207.67
  • euro little changed at $1.1637
  • WTI crude +1% at $63/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • McDonald’s is lowering the cost of its combo meals, after consumers were left sticker-shocked by Big Mac meals that climbed to $18 in some places: WSJ
  • Trump posted "Could somebody please inform Jerome “Too Late” Powell that he is hurting the Housing Industry, very badly? People can’t get a Mortgage because of him. There is no Inflation, and every sign is pointing to a major Rate Cut. “Too Late” is a disaster!"
  • Secretary Bessent is reportedly betting the crypto industry will become a crucial buyer of Treasuries in the coming years as Washington seeks to shore up demand for a deluge of new US government debt: FT.
  • US is looking into taking equity stakes in chip makers in exchange for CHIPS Act funding, similar to the Intel plan: RTRS 
  • Estée Lauder Cos. issued a weak profit outlook for its fiscal year, dragged down in part by tariff costs.
  • Xiaomi Corp. intends to sell its first electric vehicle in Europe by 2027, declaring plans to take on Tesla Inc. and BYD Co. globally after gaining traction with its year-old Chinese EV business.
  • Novo Nordisk A/S implemented a global hiring freeze as the Danish drugmaker seeks to cut costs and regain its footing in the competitive market for weight-loss treatments.
  • Baidu Inc.’s revenue fell, hurt by an economic downturn that’s capping its ability to fight bigger rivals in AI and make inroads in new growth areas.
  • Temasek Holdings Pte is mulling one of its biggest overhauls in years, potentially reorganizing the firm into three investment vehicles in a bid to boost returns and efficiencies, according to people familiar with the matter.
  • Shares of Chinese pop toy maker Pop Mart International Group Ltd. rose to a record after founder and Chief Executive Officer Wang Ning said the company could easily surpass its annual sales projection and announced plans to launch a new mini Labubu.

Shipments of phones within China -9.3% Y/Y at 22.6mln handsets in June (prev. -21.8% Y/Y at 23.72mln in May), via CAICT; shipments of foreign phones incl. Apple (AAPL) iPhones within China -31.3% at 1.97mln (prev. 9.7% at 4.54mln in May).

Trade/Tariffs

  • US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US has had very good talks with China and that China is the biggest revenue line in terms of tariff income, while he added that the status quo on China is working very well.
  • Mexico will propose reinstating a North American Steel Committee to improve trade ties with the US, according to Bloomberg.
  • Russian Embassy in India said INR payments being accepted by all Russian businesses; open to doing all oil trade INR too.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed after a lacklustre performance stateside, where mega-cap tech led the declines amid AI-related concerns, while the region digested earnings and central bank updates including the RBNZ's dovish rate cut. ASX 200 was led higher by outperformance in the top-weighted financials sector and with strength also seen in  defensives, while participants also reflected on a slew of earnings updates. Nikkei 225 retreated beneath the 43,000 level amid continued profit taking from recent record highs and after mixed data in which Machinery Tools topped  forecasts but trade data mostly disappointed and showed Japanese Exports suffered the largest decline in four years. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied as participants digested earnings releases including from Xiaomi and XPeng, while there was a lack of surprises from China's benchmark Loan Prime Rates which were maintained at the current levels, although the PBoC continued with its firm liquidity efforts via 7-day reverse repo operations.

Top Asian News

  • Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said regarding a meeting with Indian PM Modi that after comprehensive and in-depth communication, China and India reached an agreement to restart dialogue mechanisms in various fields.
  • India’s Foreign Ministry said India and China agreed to resume direct flight connectivity between the Chinese mainland and India at the earliest, while they agreed to the re-opening of border trade through the three designated trading points. Furthermore, they agreed to facilitate trade and investment flows between the two countries through concrete measures.
  • RBNZ cut the OCR by 25bps to 3.00%, as expected, while it lowered OCR projections and stated if medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as expected, there is scope to lower the OCR further. RBNZ stated that with spare capacity in the economy and declining domestic inflation pressure, headline inflation is expected to return to around the 2% target midpoint by mid-2026, and further data on the speed of New Zealand’s economic recovery will influence the future path of the OCR. RBNZ lowered the Official Cash Rate projection for December 2025 to 2.71% (prev. 2.92%) and to 2.59% in September 2026 (prev. 2.90%). The RBNZ Minutes revealed that the rate decision was made by a majority of 4 votes to 2 and the committee discussed three policy options: keeping the OCR on hold at 3.25%, cutting the OCR by 25bps to 3% or cutting by 50bps to 2.75%, but voted on the options of either reducing the OCR by 25bps or reducing the OCR by 50bps, while the case for lowering the OCR by 25bps was based on the upside and downside risks around the central projection being broadly balanced. Furthermore, RBNZ Governor Hawkesby said during the Q&A that the next two meetings are live but no decisions have been made, as well as stated that the OCR projection troughs at 2.5% and is consistent with further cuts, while whether they go faster or slower on cuts is up to the data.
  • Baidu (9888 HK) Q2 (USD): EPS 1.90 (exp. 1.74), Revenue 4.57bln (exp. 4.60bln); AI cloud business continued to deliver robust growth.

European bourses (STOXX 600 -0.2%) are trading on the backfoot in a reversal of some of Tuesday's upside and following on from the tech-led selling pressure seen Stateside. Stocks have been attempting to clamber higher as the morning progressed, with a few indices now holding around the unchanged mark. European sectors are overall mixed with a slightly defensive tilt given the current risk environment. Food, Beverage and Tobacco sits at the top of the leaderboard with Nestle (+1.2%) leading some of the upside, other sectors outperforming include Utilities, Telecoms and Insurance. To the downside, Basic Resource names lag.

Top European News

  • ECB's Lagarde said recent trade deals have alleviated but not eliminated uncertainty; EZ economy has proven resilient in the face of challenging global environment. Notes that projections show growth is expected to slow in Q3. ECB will factor the implications of the EU-US trade deal for the Euro area economy into the September projections, will guide decisions over the coming months. Europe should aim to deepen its trade ties with other jurisdictions outside of the US, leveraging the strengths of its export-oriented economy.
  • UK Chancellor Reeves is drawing up plans to hit owners of high-value properties with capital gains tax when they sell their homes as she seeks to fill a GBP 40bln hole in the public finances, according to The Times.
  • UK ONS said average UK House Prices increased 3.7% in the 12 months to June 2025 (vs 3.3% Y/Y).
  • Riksbank maintains its rate at 2.00% as expected; still some probability of a further interest rate cut this year, in line with the June forecast. COMMENTARY: Developments in inflation and economic activity during the summer have deviated somewhat from the forecast in June, the Executive Board assesses that the outlook remains largely the same. Economic activity is weak. New information indicates that growth is still low. Households are still cautious with regard to their spending, and the labour market is not yet showing any clear sign of improving. Uncertainty regarding international developments also remains high, not least given US economic policy, the war in Ukraine and developments in the Middle East.
  • Riksbank Governor Thedeen said it is far from certain that central bank will cut going forward, but there is a certain likelihood.

FX

  • After two sessions of gains, the USD rally has paused for breath. There hasn't been a clear driver for the upside seen at the start of the week with the macro narrative relatively unaltered heading into Powell's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. FOMC minutes are due later today. However, they will likely be deemed as stale in some quarters given the aforementioned August jobs report hit just a few days after the meeting. Fed's Bostic and Waller are due on today's speaker slate. Note, the subject matter for the latter is on Blockchain payments. DXY has ventured as high as 98.44 with the next upside target coming via the 12th August peak at 98.62.
  • EUR is marginally softer vs. the USD with it remaining the case that there has not been a great deal of incremental macro newsflow from the Eurozone. Remarks from ECB President Lagarde failed to engineer a move in the EUR today with the policy chief noting that recent trade deals have alleviated but not eliminated uncertainty. EUR/USD sits in close proximity to its 50DMA at 1.1644 and towards the bottom end of Tuesday's 1.1639-93 range.
  • JPY is flat vs. the USD with no material follow-through from mixed data in which Machinery Tools topped forecasts but trade data mostly disappointed and showed Japanese Exports suffered the largest decline in four years. That being said, the drop-off in exports could prompt some concern from those on the BoJ who expect a negative growth hit from the trade conflict with the US. USD/JPY currently sits towards the mid-point of yesterday's 147.44-148.11 range.
  • GBP is mildly firmer vs. the USD in the wake of hotter-than-expected UK inflation metrics, which saw headline Y/Y CPI advance to 3.8% from 3.6% (Exp. 3.7%) and services jump to 5.0% from 4.7% (Exp. 4.7%). The ONS has attributed some of this to the timing of school holidays, which has triggered a surge in airfares. However, given the outcome of the most recent BoE rate decision, which saw a higher-than-expected level of hawkish dissent, markets will likely further cement expectations that the BoE will slow down the current quarterly cadence of rate cuts. Cable has hit a 1.3509 peak but is still some way off Tuesday's best at 1.3519.
  • NZD is the standout laggard across the majors following the RBNZ rate decision, which saw the Bank cut the OCR by 25bps to 3.00%, as widely expected, while it also lowered its OCR forecasts across the projection horizon and revealed it had voted on the options of either a 25bps or 50bps cut at the meeting; 2 members backed a 50bps move.
  • SEK is a touch softer vs. the EUR in the wake of the Riksbank rate decision, which saw policymakers stand pat on policy as expected. The decision to do so was predicated on the board's balancing act in managing weak growth vs. above target inflation. That being said, the Bank still judges that there is still some probability of a further interest rate cut this year, in line with the June forecast. EUR/SEK is currently above its 200DMA at 11.1771 with upside capped by the 11.20 mark.

Fixed Income

  • USTs are flat and underperforming vs peers, after trading with a slight downward bias overnight. Nothing specifically driving the underperformance, but perhaps some cooling from the upside seen in the prior session, where stocks took a beating. Some of the pressure could also be in part due to some positioning heading into a 20yr supply later. In terms of price action today, USTs were initially on the backfoot but global fixed income has caught a slight bid to trade in a 111-20 to 111-24 range. Auction aside, focus will be on commentary from the Fed’s Waller, Bostic and the reported Fed Chair candidate Zervos, who is to speak on CNBC.
  • Bunds are outperforming vs peers today, with the bulk of the day’s action occurring at 07:00 BST. On that, there was some significant two-way movement in Bund futures as traders reacted to the UK CPI report (hotter-than-expected; details in Gilt section) and German Producer Prices (softer-than-expected). Elsewhere, no real move to commentary via ECB President Lagarde, who noted that projections show growth is expected to slow in Q3. Bunds traded towards highs at 129.35 into a dual tranche German auction, which had little follow through to price action.
  • Gilts are firmer today, initially gapping higher at the cash open in catch-up to the strength seen in USTs in the prior session, but then saw some two-way action as traders digested the UK’s hot inflation report. Delving into the UK CPI report, it held a hawkish skew, with both Core and Headline figures incrementally higher, edging higher than the prior, more than expected. The accompanying commentary provided some reasoning, pinning the uptick on the “timing of this year’s school holidays”. Gilts are currently trading towards the upper end of a 90.43 to 90.88 range.
  • Germany sells EUR 0.747bln vs exp. EUR 1.0bln 2.50% 2046 and EUR 1.15bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.50% 2054 Bund

Commodities

  • Crude is firmer today as the complex attempts to trim some of the prior day's losses, induced by geopolitics as renewed efforts are made to temper down the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This morning, the Russian Embassy in India said despite political situation, approximately same level of oil will be imported by India. As a reminder, Washington slapped India with a 25% penalty linked to oil purchases. Brent sits in a USD 65.81-66.57/bbl range.
  • Spot gold languishes just above the prior day's trough as participants await Fed policy clues from the incoming FOMC Minutes and Fed Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. Price action this morning sees the precious metals complex eking mild gains, with spot gold still trading under its 50 DMA (~3,348/oz) in a USD 3,311.56-3,327.61/oz range.
  • Flat/mixed trade across base metals amid quiet newsflow and ahead of FOMC minutes. Copper futures lacked demand following the recent selling pressure and amid the mixed overnight risk appetite. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,684.75-9,729.00/t range.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -2.4mln (exp. -1.8mln), Distillate +0.5mln (exp. +0.9mln), Gasoline +1.0mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing -0.1mln.
  • Norway Prelim July Production: oil 1.958mln BPD (prev. 1.675mln BPD in June); gas 10.2bcm (prev. 8.8bcm).

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • "Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz has approved the IDF’s operational plan for an assault on Gaza City"; "As part of the new plan, the necessary reserve call-up orders will be issued to carry out the offensive.", via Stein on X.
  • Syrian Foreign Affairs Minister Al-Shaibani discussed de-escalation talks in Paris with the Israeli delegation and discussed "Strengthening stability in southern Syria", according to Al-Hadath citing SANA.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister said Tehran cannot completely cut ties with the IAEA, according to IRNA.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • US President Trump said he wants to see what goes on when Zelensky and Putin meet, while he added they are in the process of setting the meeting up. Trump also said he gets along with Russian President Putin which is a good thing and commented that two nuclear powers getting along is a good thing.
  • White House official said US President Trump and Hungarian PM Orban discussed on Monday Ukraine's EU accession talks and Budapest as a potential venue for the Zelensky-Putin meeting.
  • US Special Envoy Witkoff said progress was made on how to achieve a peace deal, according to a Fox News Interview.
  • There was no violation of Polish airspace overnight, according to local press.

Geopolitics: Other

  • North Korean leader Kim's sister said South Korea cannot be a diplomatic counterpart to North Korea and South Korean President Lee cannot turn the tide of history, while she also stated that relations between the two Koreas will never return to the way South Korea wants, according to Yonhap and KCNA.
  • Russian Embassy in India said Russian President Putin and Indian PM Modi are to meet in Delhi by year-end, no date finalised.

US Event Calendar

  • 7:00 am: Aug 15 MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 10.9%

Central Bank speakers 

  • 11:00 am: Fed’s Waller Speaks on Payment at Wyoming Blockchain Symposium
  • 2:00 pm: Fed Releases FOMC Minutes
  • 3:00 pm: Fed’s Bostic in Moderated Conversation on Economic Outlook

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets have put in a divergent performance over the last 24 hours, with a pretty big contrast on either side of the Atlantic. In Europe, there was a fairly positive tone as speculation grew about some kind of breakthrough on a peace deal in Ukraine, with the STOXX 600 (+0.69%) reaching a 5-month high. But in the US, a sharp tech selloff gathered pace through the session, with the S&P 500 (-0.59%) posting its biggest decline since the underwhelming jobs report at the start of the month. And there’s been little sign of that relenting overnight, with nearly all the major indices in Asia moving lower this morning, whilst S&P 500 futures are down another -0.28%.

We’ll start with Europe, where markets saw a clear reaction amidst the latest developments about Ukraine. In part, that was a reaction to the White House meeting on Monday, which occurred after European markets had closed. But yesterday also saw Trump suggest that the US could be involved in security guarantees, and he said that “We’re willing to help them with things, especially, probably you could talk about by air, because there’s nobody that has the kind of stuff we have” though he again ruled out sending US troops to Ukraine. Trump also continued to encourage a deal, saying that “I hope President Putin is going to be good, and if he’s not, it’s going to be a rough situation”, and that Zelenskiy “has to show some flexibility also.” Meanwhile, Moscow remained non-committal on a potential Putin-Zelenskiy meeting that has been proposed by Trump, with Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov saying that such a meeting would have to be prepared "gradually... starting with the expert level and then going through all the required steps”.

This speculation about a diplomatic breakthrough meant that European assets saw some sizeable moves, particularly those most affected by the conflict. Indeed, it was notable that defence stocks really struggled yesterday, and Rheinmetall (-4.85%) posted the worst performance in the German DAX (+0.45%) yesterday, despite being the strongest performer over 2025 as a whole given the wider ramp up in defence spending. There was a positive reaction from Ukraine’s dollar bonds, with the 10yr yield down -8.4bps yesterday to a 4-month low, though the move partially reversed as the day went on with yields having been over -30bps lower intra-day. And the reaction was also clear among oil prices, with Brent crude (-1.22%) falling back to $65.79/bbl, having risen the previous day after investors viewed a ceasefire as increasingly unlikely.

Despite that weakness among defence stocks, the more positive sentiment meant European equities did very well more broadly. For instance, the STOXX 600 (+0.69%) was up to a five-month high, in a broad-based advance that saw almost every sector group move higher on the day. That was evident across the continent, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (+0.34%) hit a new record, whilst both Italy’s FTSE MIB (+0.89%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (+0.34%) hit a post-2007 high as well.

But even as European markets had a strong performance, it was a different story in the US, where the S&P 500 (-0.59%) fell back for a third consecutive session. Indeed, it was the worst daily performance since August 1, back when the underwhelming jobs report meant investors grew more fearful about a US slowdown. That was driven by a slump among tech stocks, with the NASDAQ (-1.46%) seeing a larger fall, whilst the Magnificent 7 declined -1.67% with Nvidia (-3.50%) leading the moves lower. That said, apart from tech stocks, it was still a decent day for most US equities, with 70% of the S&P 500’s constituents still moving higher on the day. There was also a boost from Intel (+6.97%), which was the strongest performer in the S&P after the news that SoftBank had agreed to buy $2bn of Intel stock. Meanwhile, Home Depot (+3.17%) was the 7th-best performer after its own earnings release. So the equal-weighted S&P 500 was actually up +0.45% yesterday, even as the market-cap weighted index was down by a similar amount.

For sovereign bonds, the story was generally more positive as well, and 10yr US Treasury yields fell -2.7bps on the day to 4.31%. The move got support from the decision by S&P Global Ratings to keep the US’ AA+ credit rating, particularly after the Moody’s downgrade back in May. We also heard a bit more on the appointment of a new Fed Chair, as Treasury Secretary Bessent said he’d be meeting with the candidates “probably right before, right after Labor Day”, which is on September 1. He said the meeting would help “start bringing down the list” which is presented to President Trump. As a reminder, Powell’s term as Chair ends in late-May, and the new chair is usually announced in the months beforehand, pending confirmation by the Senate.

Elsewhere, Canada’s government bonds saw a particular outperformance after their CPI inflation data was softer than expected. Specifically, headline inflation came down to +1.7% (vs. +1.8% expected), which meant investors dialled up the probability of another rate cut from the Bank of Canada this year. Indeed, the probability of a rate cut at the next meeting in September went up from 26% on Monday to 35% by the close last night. By contrast, UK gilts underperformed ahead of their own CPI release this morning, with the 10yr yield up +0.3bps on the day to 4.74%. At one point, the 30yr gilt yield was on track for another post-1998 high as well, but it ultimately ended the session down -0.9bps at 5.60%. Elsewhere in Europe, 10yr yields moved slightly lower, with those on bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-1.1bps) and BTPs (-0.1bps) all falling back a bit.

Overnight in Asia, the risk-off tone has continued with pretty much all the major indices moving lower. The Nikkei (-1.59%) has led the declines, which follows worse-than-expected export data for Japan showing the negative tariff impact. Specifically, export growth posted its biggest year-on-year decline since February 2021, with a -2.6% fall (vs. -2.1% expected). And exports to the US were down -10.1% year-on-year, so it’s clear the tariffs are having an impact. But there’ve been losses across the region, with the KOSPI (-1.36%), the Hang Seng (-0.57%), the CSI 300 (-0.12%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.06%) all losing ground. The main exception to this has been in New Zealand, where the NZX 50 index (+1.44%) has surged after a dovish decision from the RBNZ overnight. They cut rates by 25bps, in line with expectations, but their forward guidance pointed to more rate cuts than before, with the Official Cash Rate seen falling to a low of 2.55% in early 2026, down from 2.85% back in May. So that’s led to a big reaction overnight, with their 10yr yields down -10.7bps, whilst the New Zealand dollar is down -1.05% against the US dollar.

Finally, there wasn’t much data yesterday, but we did get some US housing numbers. That included housing starts, which moved up to an annualised rate of 1.428m in July (vs. 1.297m expected), their highest in 5 months. However, building permits fell to an annualised 1.354m (vs. 1.386m expected), which is their lowest level since June 2020 as the economy was recovering from the initial wave of the pandemic.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK CPI print for July. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, and the Fed’s Waller and Bostic. We’ll also get the minutes from the FOMC’s July meeting. Finally, earnings releases include Target, TJX and Lowe’s.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 08:30

Target Plunges On Leadership Overhaul Amid Struggling Turnaround

Zero Hedge -

Target Plunges On Leadership Overhaul Amid Struggling Turnaround

Target shares plunged as much as 11% in premarket trading after the retailer announced longtime CEO Brian Cornell will be replaced by CFO Michael Fiddelke. The abrupt leadership change, expected in 1Q26, comes as the company's turnaround plan has failed to gain traction. Target also reported second-quarter results showing continued sales declines, weaker traffic, and guidance that points to persistent softness through year-end. 

Target's board has unanimously elected Fiddelke, currently CFO, as its next CEO, effective February. He will also join the board of directors. Cornell, who has led the retailer since 2014, will shift positions to executive chair. The leadership change comes as Target's turnaround falters and the retailer continues to lose ground to rivals such as Walmart and Amazon. 

"I'm stepping in with urgency to rebuild momentum and return to profitable growth," Fiddelke told analysts on the earnings call. "I've seen us at our best and I've seen us when we are not at our best, and that informs my candid assessment of today where we have work to do."

Christine Leahy, lead independent director of Target's board, stated, "It is clear that Michael is the right leader to return Target to growth, refocus and accelerate the company's strategy, and reestablish Target's position as a leader in the highly dynamic and fast-moving retail environment." 

Target plunged as much as 11% in premarket trading following the abrupt leadership announcement.

The selloff may reflect disappointment among institutional investors who were hoping for a fresh hire outside of the company for a reset strategy after a series of marketing disasters, from embracing DEI initiatives to backtracking on all things woke. 

The retailer managed to spark boycotts from customers on both sides of the political aisle. 

Data compiled by Bloomberg shows the retailer's sales are still shrinking, margins are weaker, and traffic is sliding for the second quarter ended Aug. 2:

Sales Trends

  • Comparable sales: -1.9% → Negative, but better than expected (estimate -3.0%). Still marks a reversal from last year's +2%.

  • Digital sales: +4.3% → Growth beat estimates (+3.8%), but it's a big slowdown from last year's +8.7%.

  • Stores: Store comps were weak at -3.2% (vs. +0.7% last year), though not as bad as feared (-4%).

Customer Behavior

  • Transactions: -1.3% → fewer customers coming in, compared to +3% last year.

  • Basket size: -0.6% → each trip was slightly smaller, but not collapsing. 

Profitability

  • Operating margin: 5.2% → down from 6.4% last year, but in line with expectations.

  • Operating income: $1.32B (-19% y/y), slightly above estimates. Adjusted EPS: $2.05 vs. $2.01 expected → a narrow beat, but well below last year's $2.57.

  • Gross margin: 29% → still pressured but not collapsing.

Some of the initial reads from the second quarter:

  • Maybe a "less bad" quarter... The numbers indicate a customer slowdown, but the results exceeded the lowest expectations. 

  • Online growth offsetting weak stores: Digital held up, helping comps.

  • Margin erosion: Profitability is dropping as promotions and cautious consumers weigh on earnings.

The takeaway from the full-year forecast is that Target is holding guidance steady, signaling the turnaround plan has yet to materialize ahead of the back-to-school shopping period in late summer or early fall:

  • Earnings outlook intact: Adjusted EPS of $7 to $9 brackets consensus ($7.29), giving management flexibility. GAAP EPS of $8 to $10 is also unchanged. Suggests confidence in profitability despite consumer headwinds

  • Sales decline: Management still expects low single-digit declines (in line with estimates of -1.7%). They're not forecasting a rebound, just managing the slowdown.

All in all, the management shake-up set to take effect next February is not surprising given the limited traction in Target's turnaround plan. The mistake the retailer likely made, and why the stock plunged in premarket trading, was failing to bring in fresh outside talent to lead. 

Goldman analysts led by Kate McShane maintain "Neutral" on the stock. 

McShane told clients last month that it was "still too early to call a turnaround" in Target. 

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 08:05

NOAA Issues La Niña Watch For Northern Hemisphere

Zero Hedge -

NOAA Issues La Niña Watch For Northern Hemisphere

The global news narrative was recently dominated by climate crisis propaganda, pushed by the globalist Democratic Party, which funneled taxpayer monies into rogue dark-money funded NGOs and rammed climate bills through Congress, all while using the guise of a 'climate crisis' as a maneuver to loot the U.S. Treasury. We were told the world would burn within years without higher taxes on the working poor, the elimination of cow farts, the shutdown of coal plants, bans on NatGas stoves, diesel trucks, and other radical de-growth policies that have only backfired a few short years later. 

Yet here we are - still breathing air and sipping coffee - and the hurricane season was nowhere near the apocalyptic scenario meteorologists had warned earlier this year. That said, activity traditionally ramps up around this time, with a few storms now churning in the Atlantic Basin.

Another climate crisis propaganda headline over the years claimed the world's oceans were "boiling" and that the destruction of Earth was nearing. Yet now, colder-than-normal ocean temperatures are being observed across the central and eastern tropical Pacific, with the U.S. Climate Prediction Center forecasting higher odds of a La Niña weather pattern for the Lower 48 this fall and into early winter.

"ENSO-neutral is most likely through late Northern Hemisphere summer 2025 (56% chance in Aug-Oct)," the Climate Prediction Center wrote on X, adding, "Thereafter, a brief period of La Niña conditions is favored in fall and early winter 2025-26 before reverting to ENSO-neutral. A La Niña Watch is in effect." 

Meteorologist Ben Noll wrote on X that favored La Niña conditions to develop during October to December would "make it the 5th winter with La Niña out of the last six! This continues the trend of more frequent La Niña events over the past several decades." 

Does not compute...

With the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer a little more than a month away, here are the Lower 48 impacts on a regional-by-regional basis of what a La Niña winter means:

Northern U.S.

  • Colder and snowier than average across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest.

  • The jet stream often dips south, allowing Arctic air masses to spill into these regions.

  • Great Lakes states usually see above-average lake-effect snow.

Southern U.S.

  • Warmer and drier than normal across the southern tier (California, the Southwest, the Gulf Coast, and the Southeast).

  • This can worsen drought conditions, strain water supplies, and elevate wildfire risks, especially in California and the Southwest.

East Coast & Northeast

  • Winters can be variable. La Niña often favors milder, less snowy winters for the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England.

  • The northern New England region sometimes still gets significant snow if cold Arctic air interacts with coastal storms.

West Coast

  • Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon, Idaho) usually turns wetter than average, with strong storms and heavy mountain snow. California tends to be drier, though occasionally northern California still benefits from Pacific storms.

For a rough framework of what this winter might bring, the Farmer's Almanac has released its long-range forecast for the Lower 48. Full details here

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 07:45

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