Jeanine Pirro Launches DOJ Investigation Into Whether DC Has Been Faking Crime Data

Four weeks after a DC police commander was suspended amid accusations that he manipulated crime statistics, the Department of Justice has launched a wide-ranging investigation into whether the department has been faking data to make crime rates lower, the Washington Post reports, citing two senior law enforcement officials.

Andrew Leyden / Getty Images

The investigation is run out of DC US Attorney Jeanine Pirro's office following the accusation lodged against Metro PD commander Michael Pulliam, who was put on leave in May after the department began investigating whether he altered crime data. Pullman has denied the allegations. 

Michael Pulliam

Pulliam's paid administrative leave came a week after he filed an equal employment opportunity complaint against an assistant chief over accusations that the department deliberately falsified crime data. The Police union, meanwhile, claims police supervisors in the department manipulate crime data to make it appear violent crime has fallen considerably compared to last year.

The DOJ investigation, however, will go much further - and will include other police and city officials who may have also fabricated or altered crime data. 

"D. C. gave Fake Crime numbers to create a false illusion of safety," President Trump wrote on Truth Social Monday night. 

"This is a very bad and dangerous thing to do, and they are under serious investigation for so doing!" he continued, adding "Until 4 days ago, Washington, D.C., was the most unsafe ‘city’ in the United States, and perhaps the World. Now, in just a short period of time, it is perhaps the safest, and getting better every single hour!"

The DOJ has yet to articulate what specific crimes DC police officials have committed beyond 'manipulating data.' 

DC Mayor Muriel Bowser flipped out, of course, touting what she says is a drop in violent crime that happened before President Trump brought in hundreds of National Guard troops and federal law enforcement officers to join local PD - also taken over by the Trump admin - in fighting what Trump called a crime emergency. DC statistics showed violent crime down 27% year-over-year, and homicides down 11% - numbers that are now being called into question.

"We are not experiencing a spike in crime," Bowser told MSNBC. "In fact, we’re watching our crime numbers go down."

Sure you are!

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 07:40

Civil Discourse It’s one of those days with so much going on that it was clear to me early in the day I needed to do a standalone post on the topic of Trump’s most recent attack on our elections to give that topic the focus it deserves. I hope you’ll share this post with […]

The post Trump’s “Truth” About Voting appeared first on Angry Bear.

Musk Reportedly Scales Back 'America First Party' Plans In Possible Détente With Trump

There are emerging signs that Elon Musk and President Trump have reached a détente - well, at least for now. 

The public bickering has stopped, tensions over Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill' have faded, and both men have found common ground in backing the deployment of federal troops to curb violent crime across Washington, D.C., after DOGE's 'Big Balls' was injured in an attack. 

Now, a new report from the Wall Street Journal, citing sources, says Musk has dialed back plans to launch a political party to challenge Trump ahead of next year's midterms.

Recall that Musk had called for the 'America First Party' to challenge the Washington 'uniparty' following Trump's passage of the BBB in early July. He was also infuriated by the failure to codify a broad range of DOGE cuts.

The tit-for-tat social media fight between Musk and Trump was fierce between June and July: 

• June: Kill (The) Bill: Musk Goes Ballistic Against GOP Tax And Spending Package

• July: Trump Vs. Musk: "Big, Beautiful Bill" Feud Sparks Overnight Political Firestorm

• July: It's Official: Elon Musk's 'America Party' Registers With Federal Election Commission

Here are key points from the WSJ report (citing sources):

• Focus on Tesla/SpaceX & GOP Ties: Musk is prioritizing his companies and preserving his relationship with Vice President JD Vance, seen as Trump's political successor. He has privately admitted forming a party could strain that alliance.

• Future Support for Vance: Musk is considering channeling financial support into Vance's potential 2028 presidential run, after spending nearly $300 million to back Trump and Republicans in 2024.

An excerpt from WSJ:

As he has considered launching a party, the Tesla chief executive officer has been focused in part on maintaining ties with Vice President JD Vance, who is widely seen as a potential heir to the MAGA political movement. Musk has stayed in touch with Vance in recent weeks, and he has acknowledged to associates that if he goes ahead with forming a political party, he would damage his relationship with the vice president, the people said.

Musk and his associates have told people close to him that he is considering using some of his vast financial resources to back Vance if he decides to run for president in 2028, some of the people said. Musk spent close to $300 million to support Trump and other Republicans in the 2024 election.

WSJ was careful to note that Musk or his team didn't respond to requests for comment. So it's only a matter of time before Musk comments about the story on X.

Interestingly, WSJ sources reported that the America First Party canceled meetings with third-party organizers, including notable figures such as Andrew Yang and Mark Cuban. Yang and Cuban are weak men in the era of 'MAGA' - probably for the best. 

Steven Nekhaila, chair of the Libertarian National Committee, confirmed to WSJ that Musk's team has had an "eerie silence" and "doesn't seem like anything has been in action, neither at the state level or at the ground level." 

Was Musk's America First Party merely political theater, as the billionaire pivoted from neutering the Democratic Party through DOGE strike teams in federal agencies back to the private sector, aiming not to alienate customers amid weakening Tesla sales?

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 07:20

What GAO Found After the enactment of the Children’s Health Insurance Program Reauthorization Act (CHIPRA) of 2009, large tax rate differences among similar smoking tobacco products led to market shifts among these products. Specifically, CHIPRA increased tax rate differences between roll-your-own and pipe tobacco and between small cigars and some large cigars, creating opportunities for tax avoidance and leading manufacturers and consumers to substitute lower-taxed tobacco products for higher-taxed ones. These trends have continued, and the generally lower-taxed products—pipe tobacco and large cigars—have remained the top products in their respective markets. Examples of Cigarette and Cigar products Federal revenue from tobacco excise taxes has decreased from about $14 billion in fiscal year 2014 to $9 billion in fiscal year 2024 as sales of smoking tobacco products have declined. In addition, the extent to which the increased use of e-cigarettes and oral nicotine pouches has affected the market for traditional smoking tobacco products is unknown. Federal revenue would likely increase if Congress were to increase the tax rate for pipe tobacco to match the current rate for roll-your-own tobacco. GAO estimated that if the tax rate for pipe tobacco were the same as the roll-your-own tobacco rate, the federal government could collect at least $1.5 billion dollars in additional revenue for both products from fiscal year 2025 through fiscal year 2029. Similarly, federal revenue would likely increase if the minimum tax rate for large cigars were the same as the small cigar rate. However, a precise estimate is challenging to determine because of limited information about the retail prices of large cigars and consumer response to increased taxes. Further, companies have filed more drawback claims since the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015 modernized and generally expanded eligibility for the drawback program, according to CBP officials. Drawbacks are refunds of up to 99 percent of duties, taxes, or fees paid on imports and may be requested by companies that export similar, qualifying goods. CBP refunded a total of $312 million in federal taxes through drawbacks for smoking tobacco products from fiscal year 2019 through fiscal year 2024. Since fiscal year 2020, companies have requested increasing amounts of drawback refunds for these products. In fiscal year 2024, these drawback refund requests totaled approximately $392 million. Why GAO Did This Study By increasing gaps in the tax rates for smoking tobacco products that are similar to each other, CHIPRA created opportunities for tax avoidance through the substitution of lower-taxed tobacco products for higher-taxed ones. Specifically, CHIPRA increased the federal excise tax rate on small cigarettes and set equivalent rates on roll-your-own tobacco and small cigars, which can be close substitutes for factory-made cigarettes. Although CHIPRA also increased the federal excise tax rates for pipe tobacco and large cigars, the tax rates for cigarettes, roll-your-own tobacco, and small cigars are generally higher. In 2012, 2014, and 2019, GAO reported that sales of lower-taxed pipe tobacco and large cigars saw immediate and significant growth following CHIPRA. In addition, GAO estimated the amount of revenue lost by the federal government because of these market shifts. As part of GAO’s work on duplication, overlap, fragmentation, cost savings, and revenue enhancement in response to a provision in statute, GAO examined, among other things, (1) how much additional revenue the federal government could collect if tobacco tax rate disparities were eliminated and (2) how much revenue the federal government refunds to companies  through qualified drawback claims for taxes paid on tobacco imports that are later exported or destroyed. GAO analyzed sales and revenue data about smoking tobacco products from the Department of the Treasury and Customs and Border Protection (CBP), interviewed industry experts and agency officials, and summarized literature about these products and alternatives. GAO also modeled the effects on revenue of equalizing the tax rates for pipe tobacco and roll-your-own tobacco and establishing a minimum tax rate for large cigars equal to the small cigar tax rate. In addition, GAO analyzed CBP data about drawback refunds requested and finalized for smoking tobacco products.

What GAO Found As of August 2025, EXIM was not monitoring the end use of any dual-use export because all such transactions had been repaid in full. EXIM did not finance any new exports under its dual-use authority in fiscal year 2024, according to EXIM authorization data and EXIM officials. Why GAO Did This Study EXIM's mission is to support the export of U.S. goods and services overseas through loans, loan guarantees, and insurance, thereby supporting U.S. jobs. In 1994, Congress passed legislation authorizing EXIM to facilitate the financing of U.S. exports of defense articles and services with both civilian and military applications, provided that the bank determines such dual-use items are nonlethal and primarily meant for civilian end use. Included in the same act was a provision for GAO, in consultation with EXIM, to report annually on the end uses of dual-use exports financed by EXIM during the second preceding fiscal year. This report (1) examines the status of EXIM's monitoring of dual-use exports that it continued to finance in fiscal year 2023, as of August 2025, and (2) identifies any new dual-use exports that EXIM financed in fiscal year 2024. To address these objectives, GAO reviewed EXIM documentation and data on dual-use exports and interviewed EXIM officials. For more information, contact Nagla’a El-Hodiri at elhodirin@gao.gov.

I believe I would wait a few years more (after being declared safe) before swimming in the Chicago River. If you grew up in Chicago like I did, you would know the river was in bad shape from all the stuff being dumped into it and street run off. The redeeming qualities of the area […]

The post Something, I Probably Would Not Do – Chicago appeared first on Angry Bear.

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.4 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending August 15, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 1.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 3 percent from the previous week and was 23 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.1 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2 percent compared with the previous week and was 23 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates increased slightly last week, with the 30-year fixed rate now at 6.68 percent. Applications were down as a result, driven by a 16 percent decrease in VA applications, which are a typically volatile segment of the market,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “FHA refinance applications increased over the week, as the FHA rate, at 6.39 percent, remained competitive relative to other loan types. Purchase applications were little changed over the week but were at the strongest pace in four weeks and continued to run well ahead of last year’s pace. Prospective homebuyers remain more active compared to last year despite economic headwinds and uncertainty and affordability challenges.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) increased to 6.68 percent from 6.67 percent, with points decreasing to 0.60 from 0.64 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 23% year-over-year unadjusted. 
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  
Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of October 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index decreased after picking a little up recently with lower mortgage rates.

Is A Second Wave Of Inflation Coming?

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Commentary

The Trump administration has been urging a cut in interest rates. The reasons are obvious. This would make home loans more affordable, reduce pressure on government interest payments, and spur business investment.

But there is a genuine downside that should also be considered. Lower rates also risk fanning the flames of inflation. Even now, the devastation from the last five years is very obvious to all. And it’s hardly gone: the CPI came in fairly hot last week.

In three to four years, the prices of everything have shot up. You know the story with housing prices: double in many places. You feel it every time you go to the grocery store. Meat has again taken an upturn. Groceries in general are up nearly 40 percent in these strange years. They are not going back either. We are stuck and the American household is squeezed as never before.

Groceries are particularly painful because you feel it every day.

Wholesale prices reflected in the Producer Price Index (PPI) have shown new energy too. That’s particularly unsettling because it foreshadows new price pressure on the consumer side too.

The PPI came in at an intolerable 3.3 percent. That’s not entirely attributable to tariffs. In fact, all evidence points to the ways importers are eating the tariffs themselves via lower profit margins but this is not yet being passed on to consumers. The price energy on the wholesale side seems to have monetary origins.

David Stockman comments: “The wholesale price index excluding food and energy has risen by a fulsome 33.3 percent since January 2017 when the Trump Era began. That is, for the past eight and one-half years the basic wholesale price index has been climbing relentlessly higher at a 3.4 percent annual rate. Do that for two decades and a dollar earned or saved today will buy exactly 51 cents.”

Other indexes confirm some upward inflation pressure. The Truflation index has been the most credible of the last five years. It is also showing upward movement in consumer goods and services. It’s not over 2 percent in general but it is far higher than its low from January and February.

It’s a good time to check in on the main monetary aggregate, which is M2 (the Fed broke M1 back in 2020 for unknown reasons). This is the number to watch to see future price trends. The COVID period saw the biggest increases on record combined with zero interest rates. The Fed then vacuumed much of the excess out of the system. But those efforts then stopped before the 2024 election. The monetary aggregate now stands where it was at its peak.

That said, we have seen an upward trend in the rate of money creation. It is now trending toward 5 percent, which is very high and risky. This is without rate cuts. With more rate cuts, the trends would accelerate.

None of these numbers bode well for avoiding the worst fear of economists. The concern traces to the famous three waves of inflation from the 1970s. It kicked off, pulled back, came back higher and pulled back, and then the third wave hit with a ferocity that no one saw coming.

Anyone who lived through it will never forget. It came about following the end of the gold standard. The experts predicted the best monetary system ever. Once again, the experts were wrong. Then they blamed the American people for consuming too much.

Government was reduced to distributing WIN buttons: Whip Inflation Now.

None of this three-wave pattern was intentional. It traces to the arrogance of the central bankers in thinking that they had conquered the previous inflation. Once they believed the coast was clear, they lowered rates and pursued a looser policy. They could not control the machinery the way they believed and their actions kicked off a second wave.

One might suppose that would be enough to prevent yet another reckless cut but nope. They did it anyway. That’s when inflation hit double digits, gutted the U.S. capital stock, bankrupted households, and forced millions of young mothers into the workforce just to pay the bills. The finances of the American household never really recovered from this disaster.

We simply cannot afford to risk this yet again. Trump certainly does not want this on his watch. Another round of inflation would discredit the whole of his second term. It would likely be blamed on tariffs. This is the risk. One hopes that he does not get his wish of a Fed rate cut. Nothing could be worse for his presidency.

In this way, Jerome Powell is correct to resist the calls for a rate cut. He is not being ornery. He is the rare case of a responsible central banker, at least for now. The worry is that his replacement will have one job only and that is to lower rates further. Keep in mind that in real terms, short-term rates are not actually high right now once you consider inflation.

Monetary policy in general is an insidious influence over U.S. politics. Every new president wants lower rates in order to generate the appearance of higher growth. Also, lower rates reduce pressure to cut the budget because they cause the servicing of the debt to fall on the margin, thus freeing revenue for other forms of expenditures.

That said, there are always consequences to artificially low rates. They distort production structures toward capital goods industry, blow up housing prices with new demand, and further financialize an already highly leveraged financial industry. They also create the condition for more inflation down the line. It could be a year or two but it will eventually come.

This is the danger. The Trump administration needs to put a priority on killing inflation. The rumors of its death were greatly exaggerated, and the price pressure is already clawing its way out of the coffin and through the dirt. Beware! This is no time to lower rates. It’s in the long-term political interest of the Trump administration to generate economic growth the old-fashioned way: through saving and investment, not fiat money.

The second wave is not here yet. But there are already reasons to be on the lookout.

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/20/2025 - 06:30

Robot Nearly Decapitates Man In Gruesome Surgery Fail

In a shocking incident that underscores the growing dangers of industrial automation, Chinese surgeons have pulled off what medical experts are calling a miracle surgery after a robotic arm nearly decapitated a factory worker in a horrific accident in May that has only now come to light through China's state-controlled media apparatus.

The gruesome workplace incident left the unidentified man with what doctors described as an "internal decapitation" - his cervical vertebrae completely severed and critical arteries damaged, with only soft tissue keeping his head attached to his body. The worker immediately suffered paralysis and went into cardiac arrest at the scene, according to South China Morning Post, citing the Chinese medical publication Yixue Jie.

Medical teams at Shanghai Changzheng Hospital faced a gory challenge when the patient arrived in critical condition, with both of his vertebral arteries obstructed and his blood pressure having collapsed to life-threatening levels.

Advanced imaging revealed the full scope of the catastrophic injuries: one artery had completely ruptured and was blocked by bone fragments and blood clots, while the other was stretched to its breaking point and barely maintaining any blood flow to the brain.

"We have looked through much literature at home and abroad, but have never come across a case of such severe cervical vertebra separation, let alone one that survived after treatment," said Chen Huajiang, director of the hospital's cervical spine surgery department, as quoted by SCMP.

The medical team determined that emergency surgery represented the patient's only shot at survival, but the procedure carried enormous risks that could have proven fatal in seconds. Any disruption of the existing blood clots could have triggered catastrophic hemorrhaging - with doctors estimating potential blood loss of up to 2,000 milliliters in a matter of seconds.

Adding to the complexity, extensive damage to the skin on the back of the patient's neck meant that opening the surgical site risked introducing deadly bacteria into the cerebrospinal fluid, potentially causing a fatal brain infection. The patient's precarious state also prevented doctors from conducting standard pre-operative imaging and basic medical assessments.

Despite these overwhelming challenges, a multidisciplinary surgical team took the extraordinary risk on June 18, performing a marathon three-hour operation to remove the life-threatening clot, realign the shattered cervical bones, and stabilize the spine using two auxiliary plates, marking the first reported use of this technique in such a severe case.

"Although it seems that we were merely moving bones, surrounding blood vessels and nerves were also being tugged as we operated. We had to avoid secondary injuries while striving for a high success rate," Chen explained.

Despite warnings from some in China about the risks of defective combat robots, the government is aggressively advancing AI-driven battlefield systems. Recent tactical exercises featuring "robotic wolves" underscore Beijing's rapid push toward unmanned warfare.

The China’s 76th Group Army's recent drills focused on battlefield coordination between human personnel and autonomous technologies designed for reconnaissance, strategic point clearing, fire support and breaching defensive positions, according to official military statements. These exercises represent China's latest and most aggressive effort to advance unmanned warfare capabilities as part of the growing global arms race in military robotics.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 20:30

Earlier today, BCI announced that along with BTG Pactual Timberland Investment Group, it has formed a US$700 million timberland investment platform in partnership with Klabin:

• Large scale partnership advancing long term timberland stewardship and marking one of the largest timberland transactions ever in Latin America

São Paulo, Brazil – 19 August 2025 — The BTG Pactual Timberland Investment Group (BTG Pactual TIG), one of the world’s largest timberland investment managers, has announced the formation of a large, consolidated timberland platform in southern Brazil. The transaction will significantly expand BTG Pactual TIG’s presence in the state of Paraná, where it has operated since 2017.

The ~US$ 700 million investment comprises ~100,000 gross hectares of sustainably managed mature timberland assets, consisting primarily of pine and eucalyptus forests. The transaction was structured in partnership with Klabin S.A.(Klabin), Brazil’s largest producer and exporter of packaging paper and a leading manufacturer of paperboard packaging, and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI), one of Canada’s largest institutional investors.

“This transaction marks an important step in our long-term strategy to invest in sustainably managed timberland in Brazil,” said Gerrity Lansing, Head of BTG Pactual TIG. “It expands our presence in Paraná—a strategically important region for forestry in the country—and reflects our commitment to building scalable platforms alongside long-term institutional partners like BCI and strategic partners like Klabin, whose deep industry knowledge adds meaningful value.”

Marcos Paulo Conde Ivo, Chief Financial Officer of Klabin said: “Collaborating with BTG Pactual TIG and BCI on this investment reflects Klabin’s ongoing engagement to sustainable forestry and responsible stewardship and reinforces Klabin’s commitment to disciplined capital allocation and deleveraging, consolidating the creation of sustainable value for all its stakeholders”

“We are pleased to expand our partnership with BTG Pactual TIG through this strategic investment,” added Lincoln Webb, Executive Vice President & Global Head of Infrastructure & Renewable Resources at BCI. “This transaction reflects the opportunity we see in high-quality, sustainably managed timberland assets. Working alongside experienced partners such as TIG and Klabin supports our objective of delivering long-term, risk-adjusted returns for our clients.”

The investment will align with Klabin’s 2030 Agenda and leverage TIG’s sustainability infrastructure and experience to sustainably manage the timberland assets in a manner that aims to generate both financial returns and positive environmental and social outcomes.

The transaction described in this press release is subject to standard precedent conditions, including approval by the relevant regulatory authority. 

This is another excellent timberland deal for BCI partnering up with BTG Pactual TIG (TIG) and Klabin, the largest producer and exporter of packaging paper and sustainable paper packaging solutions in Brazil.

Recall, in 2021, TIG and BCI launched Caddo Sustainable Timberlands LP (CST) – a platform through which to build exposure to southeastern US timberland with the goal of generating superior risk-adjusted returns while accounting for ecological integrity and sustainability (read details here).

Now they're teaming up again to launch another timberland platform in TIG's backyard, Brazil.

And they picked the right partner, Klabin, a company with a 126 year history.

The company is known for driving sustainability, aligning with BCI's values. 

It is worth repeating what Marcos Paulo Conde Ivo, CFO of Klabin said: 

“Collaborating with BTG Pactual TIG and BCI on this investment reflects Klabin’s ongoing engagement to sustainable forestry and responsible stewardship and reinforces Klabin’s commitment to disciplined capital allocation and deleveraging, consolidating the creation of sustainable value for all its stakeholders” 

Every partner in this new platform is getting something, including Klabin. 

Keep in mind, from an asset allocation perspective, timberland and farmland are inflation sensitive assets, just like real estate and infrastructure, but they are uncorrelated and have their own specific risks and dynamics.

BCI's EVP & Global Head of Infrastructure and Natural Resources, Lincoln Webb, knows all this and they're deploying assets here for "long-term, risk-adjusted returns" and as a means to protect BCI's overall portfolio from inflation (just like infrastructure and real estate, inflation protection is embedded in timberland assets).

In other recent corporate news, BCI-backed Brinley Partners secured a US$4 billion commitment:

• Transformational investment launches Brinley’s inaugural collateralized loan obligation (CLO) offering

Victoria, BC, July 30, 2025 – British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (“BCI”), one of Canada’s largest institutional investors, today announced that Brinley Partners, LP (“Brinley”), a private credit investment manager initially seeded by BCI’s Principal Credit Fund, has secured an additional US$4 billion commitment from a leading U.S. insurance company. This capital will fund Brinley’s inaugural collateralized loan obligation (“CLO”), the first in a planned series of rolling vintages, beginning with a US$1 billion investment vehicle.

Brinley focuses on high quality companies in the middle-market, upper-middle market, and large cap space, operating in defensive sectors. Brinley’s first flagship fund, Brinley Private Debt Fund I LP, closed in 2021 with approximately US$3 billion of total capital, inclusive of leverage.

“BCI first invested in Brinley in 2021, having built strong conviction in the strategy created by the company’s Founder, Kerry Dolan, and the growing demand for corporate private debt. Since that time, Brinley has demonstrated successful execution and delivered strong results for BCI,” said Daniel Garant, Executive Vice President & Global Head, Public Markets at BCI. “We’re thrilled to see Brinley secure this US$4 billion commitment to extend their offering into the CLO market. This is a transformational transaction for Brinley and all equity partners – including BCI.  We are pleased to continue our partnership with Brinley in their next phase of growth.”

Kerry Dolan, Founder and Managing Partner of Brinley added: “Our inaugural CLO is a natural extension of our credit platform, and welcoming a new strategic partner marks a meaningful milestone in Brinley’s continued evolution and the growth of our firm.”

Brinley’s expansion into the CLO market reinforces its momentum as a growing, multi-product credit platform. Leveraging the firm’s existing capabilities, the CLO will employ Brinley’s flagship strategy of providing comprehensive capital solutions to high-quality mid-market and large-cap companies, with a specific emphasis on businesses with high barriers to entry, compelling industry fundamentals, and demonstrated revenue visibility or predictability, among other factors. The CLO strategy was specifically designed to meet the needs of insurance sector investment capital, including flexible structuring capabilities that allow the CLO to include various debt products.

BCI’s Principal Credit Fund has committed, or agreed to commit, more than US$2.5 billion to Brinley.

As the press release states, this capital will fund Brinley’s inaugural collateralized loan obligation (“CLO”), the first in a planned series of rolling vintages, beginning with a US$1 billion investment vehicle.

Brinley focuses on high quality companies in the middle-market, upper-middle market, and large cap space, operating in defensive sectors. 

BCI has a high conviction in its strategy and the CLO is a natural extension of its credit platform.

I can't speak about risks but at least they focus on defensive sectors, so there's less cyclicality here, or at least there should be.

Lastly, BCI just announced that Geraldine Hutchings will soon join its board of directors:

BCI is pleased to announce that Geraldine Hutchings will join the BCI Board of Directors on September 1, 2025. The College Pension Board of Trustees has appointed Geraldine for a two-year term.

Geraldine brings extensive experience and expertise in pension governance. She has served on the College Board of Trustees since 2012, including as Chair and Vice Chair, and was appointed as a Director on the Pension Management Board of the BC Pension Corporation in 2018, where she also served as Chair of the Audit Committee.  

“On behalf of the Board of Directors, I look forward to welcoming Geraldine to the BCI Board,” said Peter Milburn, Chair of BCI’s Board of Directors. “Geraldine’s proven experience in pension governance will support our oversight role as BCI continues to deliver long-term value for clients in an increasingly complex environment.”

“I am honoured to be joining BCI’s Board of Directors,” said Geraldine Hutchings. “Having worked closely with pension plans for many years, I understand the critical importance of effective governance and oversight in protecting and growing clients’ assets. I look forward to contributing to BCI’s strong governance and its continued success in serving clients.” 

Director transition

Geraldine succeeds Weldon Cowan, who is resigning from the BCI Board on August 31, 2025. Weldon was first appointed to BCI’s Board in 2021 and served as a member of the Human Resources and Governance Committee.

“We thank Weldon for his years of dedicated service to the BCI Board,” said Peter. “During his tenure, Weldon’s expertise and insights helped to strengthen our oversight and governance of BCI. We are sincerely grateful for his valuable contributions, and we wish him well.” 

About the BCI Board of Directors

BCI’s Board is structured in accordance with the Public Sector Pension Plans Act . BCI’s four largest pension plan clients each appoint a member from their Board of Trustees, with the Minister of Finance appointing the Chair and two directors to comprise a seven-member Board.

Geraldine’s full biography and additional information about BCI’s Board of Directors can be found at BCI.ca/governance. 

Sounds to me like the right type of lady with the right experience who will add value to BCI's Board.

Alright, let me wrap it up there.

Below, Klabin is made of people – from those who just arrived to those who have been with them for over 50 years – all contributing to the building of a century-old history marked by efficiency and a strong commitment to the future. 

Here, they celebrate 126 years with emotion, inspiration, and, above all, pride. Pride in our more than 18,000 employees. Pride in our partners, clients, consumers and investors. "126 years of pride in standing by your side."

Again, strong partner to have in Brazil on this timberland platform. Well done. 

Earlier today, BCI announced that along with BTG Pactual Timberland Investment Group, it has formed a US$700 million timberland investment platform in partnership with Klabin:

• Large scale partnership advancing long term timberland stewardship and marking one of the largest timberland transactions ever in Latin America

São Paulo, Brazil – 19 August 2025 — The BTG Pactual Timberland Investment Group (BTG Pactual TIG), one of the world’s largest timberland investment managers, has announced the formation of a large, consolidated timberland platform in southern Brazil. The transaction will significantly expand BTG Pactual TIG’s presence in the state of Paraná, where it has operated since 2017.

The ~US$ 700 million investment comprises ~100,000 gross hectares of sustainably managed mature timberland assets, consisting primarily of pine and eucalyptus forests. The transaction was structured in partnership with Klabin S.A.(Klabin), Brazil’s largest producer and exporter of packaging paper and a leading manufacturer of paperboard packaging, and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (BCI), one of Canada’s largest institutional investors.

“This transaction marks an important step in our long-term strategy to invest in sustainably managed timberland in Brazil,” said Gerrity Lansing, Head of BTG Pactual TIG. “It expands our presence in Paraná—a strategically important region for forestry in the country—and reflects our commitment to building scalable platforms alongside long-term institutional partners like BCI and strategic partners like Klabin, whose deep industry knowledge adds meaningful value.”

Marcos Paulo Conde Ivo, Chief Financial Officer of Klabin said: “Collaborating with BTG Pactual TIG and BCI on this investment reflects Klabin’s ongoing engagement to sustainable forestry and responsible stewardship and reinforces Klabin’s commitment to disciplined capital allocation and deleveraging, consolidating the creation of sustainable value for all its stakeholders”

“We are pleased to expand our partnership with BTG Pactual TIG through this strategic investment,” added Lincoln Webb, Executive Vice President & Global Head of Infrastructure & Renewable Resources at BCI. “This transaction reflects the opportunity we see in high-quality, sustainably managed timberland assets. Working alongside experienced partners such as TIG and Klabin supports our objective of delivering long-term, risk-adjusted returns for our clients.”

The investment will align with Klabin’s 2030 Agenda and leverage TIG’s sustainability infrastructure and experience to sustainably manage the timberland assets in a manner that aims to generate both financial returns and positive environmental and social outcomes.

The transaction described in this press release is subject to standard precedent conditions, including approval by the relevant regulatory authority. 

This is another excellent timberland deal for BCI partnering up with BTG Pactual TIG (TIG) and Klabin, the largest producer and exporter of packaging paper and sustainable paper packaging solutions in Brazil.

Recall, in 2021, TIG and BCI launched Caddo Sustainable Timberlands LP (CST) – a platform through which to build exposure to southeastern US timberland with the goal of generating superior risk-adjusted returns while accounting for ecological integrity and sustainability (read details here).

Now they're teaming up again to launch another timberland platform in TIG's backyard, Brazil.

And they picked the right partner, Klabin, a company with a 126 year history.

The company is known for driving sustainability, aligning with BCI's values. 

It is worth repeating what Marcos Paulo Conde Ivo, CFO of Klabin said: 

“Collaborating with BTG Pactual TIG and BCI on this investment reflects Klabin’s ongoing engagement to sustainable forestry and responsible stewardship and reinforces Klabin’s commitment to disciplined capital allocation and deleveraging, consolidating the creation of sustainable value for all its stakeholders” 

Every partner in this new platform is getting something, including Klabin. 

Keep in mind, from an asset allocation perspective, timberland and farmland are inflation sensitive assets, just like real estate and infrastructure, but they are uncorrelated and have their own specific risks and dynamics.

BCI's EVP & Global Head of Infrastructure and Natural Resources, Lincoln Webb, knows all this and they're deploying assets here for "long-term, risk-adjusted returns" and as a means to protect BCI's overall portfolio from inflation (just like infrastructure and real estate, inflation protection is embedded in timberland assets).

In other recent corporate news, BCI-backed Brinley Partners secured a US$4 billion commitment:

• Transformational investment launches Brinley’s inaugural collateralized loan obligation (CLO) offering

Victoria, BC, July 30, 2025 – British Columbia Investment Management Corporation (“BCI”), one of Canada’s largest institutional investors, today announced that Brinley Partners, LP (“Brinley”), a private credit investment manager initially seeded by BCI’s Principal Credit Fund, has secured an additional US$4 billion commitment from a leading U.S. insurance company. This capital will fund Brinley’s inaugural collateralized loan obligation (“CLO”), the first in a planned series of rolling vintages, beginning with a US$1 billion investment vehicle.

Brinley focuses on high quality companies in the middle-market, upper-middle market, and large cap space, operating in defensive sectors. Brinley’s first flagship fund, Brinley Private Debt Fund I LP, closed in 2021 with approximately US$3 billion of total capital, inclusive of leverage.

“BCI first invested in Brinley in 2021, having built strong conviction in the strategy created by the company’s Founder, Kerry Dolan, and the growing demand for corporate private debt. Since that time, Brinley has demonstrated successful execution and delivered strong results for BCI,” said Daniel Garant, Executive Vice President & Global Head, Public Markets at BCI. “We’re thrilled to see Brinley secure this US$4 billion commitment to extend their offering into the CLO market. This is a transformational transaction for Brinley and all equity partners – including BCI.  We are pleased to continue our partnership with Brinley in their next phase of growth.”

Kerry Dolan, Founder and Managing Partner of Brinley added: “Our inaugural CLO is a natural extension of our credit platform, and welcoming a new strategic partner marks a meaningful milestone in Brinley’s continued evolution and the growth of our firm.”

Brinley’s expansion into the CLO market reinforces its momentum as a growing, multi-product credit platform. Leveraging the firm’s existing capabilities, the CLO will employ Brinley’s flagship strategy of providing comprehensive capital solutions to high-quality mid-market and large-cap companies, with a specific emphasis on businesses with high barriers to entry, compelling industry fundamentals, and demonstrated revenue visibility or predictability, among other factors. The CLO strategy was specifically designed to meet the needs of insurance sector investment capital, including flexible structuring capabilities that allow the CLO to include various debt products.

BCI’s Principal Credit Fund has committed, or agreed to commit, more than US$2.5 billion to Brinley.

As the press release states, this capital will fund Brinley’s inaugural collateralized loan obligation (“CLO”), the first in a planned series of rolling vintages, beginning with a US$1 billion investment vehicle.

Brinley focuses on high quality companies in the middle-market, upper-middle market, and large cap space, operating in defensive sectors. 

BCI has a high conviction in its strategy and the CLO is a natural extension of its credit platform.

I can't speak about risks but at least they focus on defensive sectors, so there's less cyclicality here, or at least there should be.

Lastly, BCI just announced that Geraldine Hutchings will soon join its board of directors:

BCI is pleased to announce that Geraldine Hutchings will join the BCI Board of Directors on September 1, 2025. The College Pension Board of Trustees has appointed Geraldine for a two-year term.

Geraldine brings extensive experience and expertise in pension governance. She has served on the College Board of Trustees since 2012, including as Chair and Vice Chair, and was appointed as a Director on the Pension Management Board of the BC Pension Corporation in 2018, where she also served as Chair of the Audit Committee.  

“On behalf of the Board of Directors, I look forward to welcoming Geraldine to the BCI Board,” said Peter Milburn, Chair of BCI’s Board of Directors. “Geraldine’s proven experience in pension governance will support our oversight role as BCI continues to deliver long-term value for clients in an increasingly complex environment.”

“I am honoured to be joining BCI’s Board of Directors,” said Geraldine Hutchings. “Having worked closely with pension plans for many years, I understand the critical importance of effective governance and oversight in protecting and growing clients’ assets. I look forward to contributing to BCI’s strong governance and its continued success in serving clients.” 

Director transition

Geraldine succeeds Weldon Cowan, who is resigning from the BCI Board on August 31, 2025. Weldon was first appointed to BCI’s Board in 2021 and served as a member of the Human Resources and Governance Committee.

“We thank Weldon for his years of dedicated service to the BCI Board,” said Peter. “During his tenure, Weldon’s expertise and insights helped to strengthen our oversight and governance of BCI. We are sincerely grateful for his valuable contributions, and we wish him well.” 

About the BCI Board of Directors

BCI’s Board is structured in accordance with the Public Sector Pension Plans Act . BCI’s four largest pension plan clients each appoint a member from their Board of Trustees, with the Minister of Finance appointing the Chair and two directors to comprise a seven-member Board.

Geraldine’s full biography and additional information about BCI’s Board of Directors can be found at BCI.ca/governance. 

Sounds to me like the right type of lady with the right experience who will add value to BCI's Board.

Alright, let me wrap it up there.

Below, Klabin is made of people – from those who just arrived to those who have been with them for over 50 years – all contributing to the building of a century-old history marked by efficiency and a strong commitment to the future. 

Here, they celebrate 126 years with emotion, inspiration, and, above all, pride. Pride in our more than 18,000 employees. Pride in our partners, clients, consumers and investors. "126 years of pride in standing by your side."

Again, strong partner to have in Brazil on this timberland platform. Well done. 

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for July (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

• AT 2:00 PM, FOMC Minutes, Meeting of July 29-30

Malfunctioning Insulin Pumps Recalled After Multiple Injuries

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

San Diego-based Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. agreed to voluntarily recall insulin pumps used to manage blood sugar, the company said in an Aug. 12 announcement by the Food and Drug Administration.

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in White Oak, Md., on June 5, 2023. Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times

Insulin pumps are wearable devices that deliver insulin at predetermined doses at specific times. Such devices can feature alarm functions to alert users about various situations, such as issues with insulin delivery.

The recalled product, the t:slim X2 insulin pump, is being withdrawn to “address a potential speaker-related issue that can trigger an error resulting in a discontinuation of insulin delivery,” the announcement reads.

“The error, which appears as a Malfunction 16 alarm to the user, will stop insulin delivery and terminate communication between the insulin pump and the continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) device,” it reads.

Continuous glucose monitoring devices constantly track a user’s glucose levels, sending the information to devices such as cell phones, allowing for real-time monitoring of glucose levels.

The malfunction could result in hyperglycemia—high blood sugar—due to the insulin delivery being discontinued and other factors, the company said.

According to the announcement, Tandem has already received 700 confirmed adverse event reports involving high blood sugar and situations that required users to seek medical intervention. Although no deaths have been reported, there have been 59 injuries, it said.

Tandem said it has already informed impacted U.S. customers about the issue through a notice sent between July 22 and July 24.

The notice listed several actions users can take to deal with the malfunction, including preparing a backup method of insulin delivery. It asked users to regularly check their blood sugar levels to ensure they do not have any unexpected high or low readings.

In the Aug. 12 announcement, Tandem said that it will be “releasing a software update designed to enhance early detection of speaker failure.”

“This update will also introduce persistent vibration alerts to help reduce potential safety risk,” it stated.

“Tandem will notify all pump users when the software update becomes available, and to request pump users complete the update of their insulin pump.”

Users can verify whether their insulin pump is included in the recall by entering the device’s serial number on the Tandem website.

Customers with queries can contact the company at 877-801-6901.

Tandem did not respond to a request for comment.

350,000 Insulin Pump Users

Tandem had issued a separate recall of its t:slim X2 insulin pump in February this year, according to FDA data.

That recall was tied to a software defect that could lead to insulin being under-delivered or over-delivered, thus resulting in “severe cases of hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia,” the FDA said.

The recall status is still listed as “open,” according to the agency, indicating the company has not corrected or removed all faulty products.

According to a June 2022 study, there are an estimated 350,000 insulin pump users in the United States. However, they account for only a small portion of people with diabetes.

About 38 million American adults are estimated to have diabetes, and one out of five people are unaware that they have it, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a May 2024 post.

“In the United States, about 1 in 3 adults has prediabetes. More than 8 in 10 people with prediabetes don’t know they have it,” it said.

“With prediabetes, blood sugar levels are higher than normal, but not high enough for a type 2 diabetes diagnosis. Prediabetes raises your risk for type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and stroke,” the CDC stated.

“Prediabetes and type 2 diabetes can be prevented with lifestyle changes. Currently, no one knows how to prevent type 1 diabetes.”

According to the agency, diabetes is the eighth leading cause of death and the No. 1 cause of adult blindness, lower-limb amputations, and kidney failure.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 18:25

MSNBC To Change Name And Rebrand After "Corporate Divorce" From NBC

When a news company is forced to completely rebrand to distance themselves politically from their parent company, you know they have hit rock bottom. 

The MSNBC news network announced this week that they will be rebranding and will become My Source New Opinion World (MS NOW).  They will also be removing the NBC Peacock from their logo.  The network, which features a stable of personalities including Rachel Maddow, Ari Melber and Nicole Wallace is notorious for their far-left hot takes and extreme anti-Trump bias in their reporting.  This image has led to plunging ratings in recent months.

Both MSNBC and CNN dealt with staggering losses in viewership over the past year while Fox News enjoyed viewership gains in the cable news ratings war.  The left-leaning networks suffered year-over-year declines in all major metrics for the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year, according to the latest Nielsen data, which was reported by AdWeek. 

Comcast-owned MSNBC drew an average 1.008 million primetime viewers from April to June, a year-over-year decline of 15%, Nielsen figures show.  In the the advertiser-covered 25-to-54 demographic, primetime viewership dropped 20%, to 91,000 compared to last year.  

The news platform has become an embarrassment for parent companies NBC Universal and Comcast.  The name change was ordered by NBC Universal, which last November spun off cable networks USA, CNBC, MSNBC, E! Entertainment, Oxygen and the Golf Channel into its own company, called Versant. None of the other networks are changing their name.  

MSNBC got its moniker upon its formation in 1996 as a partnership between Microsoft and NBC. The name remained, even after the NBC partnership with Microsoft that produced it ended.  Versant CEO Mark Lazarus said in the initial days of the spinoff that "MSNBC" would stay, which makes this week's announcement a surprise.  A branding change of this nature will likely crush the company's ratings even further, but it would appear that MSNBC has been deemed an acceptable loss for NBC and Comcast.

It is also likely that pundits like Rachel Maddow (who has already taken a pay cut) will be out of a job in the near term.   

The social distancing away from the sickly network is due to its terrible ratings, but also the ongoing political shift in the US towards moderate and conservative ideals.  The Democrats burned every possible bridge and every ounce of political capital they had during Joe Biden's presidency.  MSNBC was a integral part of the Biden Administration's propaganda blitz.

The combination of covid fear mongering, their defense of the BLM riots, their defense of the transgender indoctrination of children, their incessant accusations of J6 "insurrection", their dismissal of the Hunter Biden Laptop story, their open support for mass illegal immigration not to mention their delusional predictions for Kamala Harris during the 2024 election campaign has tainted MSNBC's image beyond repair. 

Some critics point out that MSNBC has been losing viewers (and money) for many years; why are they being retooled now?  We once again have to wonder if the shutdown of federal subsidies from agencies like USAID has anything to do with the accelerated extinction of leftist media.  When big names like Stephen Colbert get cut and MSNBC goes into witness protection, it's as if the cash flow keeping leftist platforms afloat suddenly dried up.

One positive result from MSNBC's existence is that they unknowingly expedited the demise of the legacy media with their lunacy.  The public has increasingly turned to the alternative media and long form content for their information, which will ultimately lead to a better educated population.  Thanks, MSNBC!  We salute you!

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 18:00

Global Nuclear Power Generation Hits Record High As Asia Surges Ahead

Authored by Robert Rapier via OilPrice.com,

• Global nuclear generation reached 2,817 TWh in 2024, surpassing the previous record from 2021, with most growth coming from non-OECD countries.

• Asia Pacific, led by China’s 13% annual growth rate, now accounts for over 28% of global nuclear output, marking a major geopolitical and energy shift.

• While Eastern Europe, the UAE, and select other nations expand nuclear capacity, Western Europe and North America face stagnation, retirements, or policy-driven phaseouts.

Nuclear power has always been a paradox. It can produce massive amounts of low-carbon electricity, yet it must constantly battle the headwinds of politics and public perception. 

The latest Statistical Review of World Energy shows that while nuclear generation is growing globally—setting a new record high in 2024—the trend is anything but uniform. Some countries are charging ahead, while others are stepping back.

Global Output: Modest Growth, Unevenly Shared

In 2024, global nuclear generation reached 2,817 terawatt-hours, a modest uptick from 2023, but surpassing the previous all-time high set in 2021. 

Over the past decade, output has grown at a 2.6% annual rate—slow, but a clear recovery from the post-Fukushima slump. That growth is heavily skewed toward non-OECD countries, which are building new capacity at a faster pace (3.0% annual growth) than the flat-to-declining trend in OECD nations (2.5%).

Asia Pacific: The New Center of Gravity 

The most dramatic shift is happening in Asia Pacific, now responsible for over 28% of global nuclear output—over double its share from a decade ago:

• As with renewables, China is in a league of its own, with output soaring from 213 TWh in 2014 to more than 450 TWh in 2024—an annual growth rate near 13%.

• India and South Korea also posted steady gains, though on a smaller scale.

This marks a clear geopolitical shift. Nuclear power is no longer dominated by Western democracies, but by countries with state-driven, long-term infrastructure agendas.

North America: Stable, but Aging

The United States still leads the world in nuclear output at roughly 850 TWh annually (29.2% of the world’s total nuclear output), but beneath the stability is a slow attrition of older plants and a lack of new construction. 

But the U.S. had its biggest nuclear milestone in decades in 2023 and 2024 with the startup of Vogtle Unit 3, followed by Unit 4. Located in Georgia, Vogtle is the first newly built nuclear power plant in the United States in more than 30 years, and its completion marks the end of a long, costly construction saga plagued by delays and budget overruns. Together, the two new reactors added more than 2,200 megawatts of capacity—enough to power over a million homes—and provide a rare example of nuclear expansion in a country where most growth has come from extending the lives of existing plants. 

Canada’s output has slipped from 106 TWh in 2016 to 85 TWh in 2024, reflecting plant refurbishments and changing policies. Mexico, a small player, has seen big year-to-year swings, which may indicate operational challenges.

Europe: A Story of Contrasts

Western Europe is drifting away from nuclear:

• France, long the gold standard for nuclear reliability, has seen output fall from 442 TWh in 2016 to just 338 TWh last year, hampered by maintenance issues and political uncertainty.

• Germany is now at zero after completing its nuclear phase-out.

• Belgium, Switzerland, and Sweden are split between retirements and life extensions.

In Eastern Europe, the picture is brighter. The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia are increasing output, while Ukraine has managed to maintain over 50 TWh annually despite wartime disruptions.

Emerging Regions: Small Shares, Big Moves

In Latin America, Brazil and Argentina are holding steady around 15–25 TWh, with Brazil inching higher. Africa’s only nuclear producer, South Africa, remains flat at about 13 TWh. The Middle East has a new entrant in the UAE, which ramped from zero in 2019 to over 40 TWh in 2024 thanks to the Barakah plant—an impressive buildout in such a short time.

The Outliers

• Japan has restarted some reactors, but its output remains far below pre-Fukushima levels—84 TWh last year versus more than 300 TWh in 2010.

• Taiwan is phasing out nuclear, with production falling from 42 TWh in 2016 to just 12 TWh in 2024.

• Pakistan and Iran continue steady, if modest, growth.

Final Thoughts

The global nuclear landscape is diverging. Some countries are doubling down, driven by the twin imperatives of energy security and climate action, while others are walking away. The center of gravity is moving away from traditional Western producers toward nations prepared to back nuclear with long-term capital and policy support.

For investors, the next wave of growth is likely to come from Asia and the Middle East, not the historical powerhouses of Europe and North America. That shift carries environmental upside as well—especially in China, the world’s largest carbon emitter. Every gigawatt China moves from coal to nuclear represents a major win in the fight to reduce carbon emissions.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 17:40

Trump Taps Missouri's Firebrand AG For #2 Job At FBI

President Trump is planning to appoint Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey to share the #2 position at the FBI with Dan Bongino, for now, to serve as "an integral part of this important mission," according to a statement from Director Kash Patel. 

Bailey announced his resignation on Monday in order to take on the new role. 

"My life has been defined by a call to service, and I am once again answering that call, this time at the national level," Bailey said in a statement. 

Some have interpreted this as the beginning of the end for Bongino - who has clashed with Attorney General Pam Bondi over the release of the Epstein files - leading the former podcaster to leave work for several days in July.

According to the NY Times (so who knows), "People close to Mr. Trump were unhappy with Mr. Bongino’s display of anger, but believed that having him leave his job could undermine the president."

Trump was expected to have announced Bailey's move on Monday, according to Politico. 

Bailey, a former prosecutor who has been Missouri's AG since January 2023, interviewed with Trump at Mar-a-Lago during the transition as a potential pick for US Attorney General. His tenure as AG has included several high-profile moves to help Trump and his interests, including a petition filed last year with the US Supreme Court seeking to lift a gag order against Trump and delay sentencing in his New York trial until after the Nov. 5 election. 

Former Missouri House Speaker Catherine Hanaway, meanwhile, has been appointed by Gov. Mike Kehoe to replace Bailey at the state's next AG. After serving out Bailey's term, which runs until the end of 2028, Hanaway told reporters on Tuesday that she plans to seek a full term of her own. 

"My game plan, for sure, is to serve the next three years," she said, adding "and then if Missourians will vote for me and believe I earned a full term, then I’d like to serve a full term."

Hanawway was the state's first female speaker of the House, eventually leaving politics to focus on her law practice. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/19/2025 - 17:20

As ordered reported by the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation on May 21, 2025

A nation and a presidency in trouble. All of this due to people being afraid of electing an intelligent woman to the presidency? So, they voted for Tr__p, a person who was definitely showing signs of dementia then and is moreso now. I believe know we are in trouble. Prof. Heather has a good take […]

The post August 18, 2025 appeared first on Angry Bear.

The post Quick Thoughts on AI and Electricity appeared first on CEPR.

The Downward Arrow Technique, developed by Dr. David Burns, is a powerful CBT tool used to uncover core beliefs by exploring deeper meanings behind negative thoughts.

1.1 Overview of the Downward Arrow Technique

The Downward Arrow Technique is a cognitive-behavioral tool used to explore and identify core beliefs underlying negative thoughts. By asking probing questions, it helps individuals uncover deeper meanings and assumptions driving their emotions and behaviors. This method is particularly effective in CBT, enabling therapists and clients to drill down through layers of thoughts to reveal unconscious beliefs. The technique is often complemented by worksheets, which guide users through structured exercises to document and analyze their thoughts systematically. It is a practical approach for understanding and addressing underlying cognitive patterns.

1.2 Importance of the Downward Arrow Technique in CBT

The Downward Arrow Technique is a cornerstone in CBT, enabling individuals to identify and challenge underlying core beliefs that drive negative thought patterns. By uncovering these beliefs, it facilitates meaningful cognitive restructuring, leading to lasting emotional and behavioral change. The technique’s structured approach, often paired with worksheets, makes it a practical tool for therapists and clients alike. Its effectiveness lies in its ability to connect surface-level thoughts to deeper, often unconscious beliefs, fostering insight and personal growth in the therapeutic process.

What is the Downward Arrow Technique?

The Downward Arrow Technique is a CBT tool developed by Dr. David Burns to explore deeper meanings of negative thoughts, helping uncover core beliefs and assumptions.

2.1 Definition and Origin

The Downward Arrow Technique is a cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) method designed to identify and challenge underlying negative beliefs. Originated by Dr. David Burns, it involves probing questions to uncover core beliefs. This technique helps individuals explore the deeper meanings behind their thoughts, revealing unconscious assumptions that drive emotions and behaviors. By systematically questioning the implications of negative thoughts, it guides users toward understanding their belief systems, making it a valuable tool in therapy and personal growth.

2.2 Key Concepts and Principles

The Downward Arrow Technique relies on Socratic questioning to explore the underlying meanings of negative thoughts. It systematically probes for deeper implications, helping individuals identify core beliefs. Key principles include uncovering unconscious assumptions, challenging negative thought patterns, and understanding how beliefs influence emotions and behaviors. This method emphasizes self-reflection and awareness, guiding users to connect surface-level thoughts to deeper, often hidden convictions. By repeating probing questions, it reveals the cascading effects of thoughts, making it a powerful tool for restructuring beliefs in CBT and personal development.

Benefits of Using the Downward Arrow Technique

The Downward Arrow Technique helps identify core beliefs, challenge negative thoughts, and enhance self-awareness, providing a structured approach for cognitive restructuring in CBT.

3.1 Identifying Core Beliefs

The Downward Arrow Technique is a valuable tool for identifying core beliefs by probing beneath surface-level thoughts. Through repeated questioning, it reveals deeply held convictions about oneself, others, and the world. Worksheets guide users to explore these beliefs systematically, helping them understand how they influence emotions and behaviors. This process is particularly effective in CBT, as it bridges the gap between conscious thoughts and unconscious assumptions, enabling individuals to address the root causes of their distress. Regular practice enhances self-awareness and fosters meaningful change.

3.2 Challenging Negative Thoughts

The Downward Arrow Technique is a potent method for challenging negative thoughts by exposing their underlying implications. By repeatedly questioning the meaning of these thoughts, individuals can uncover their deeper, often unconscious beliefs. This process encourages cognitive restructuring, helping to identify and dispute unhelpful patterns. Worksheets provide a structured way to document and analyze these thoughts, fostering a clearer understanding of their emotional impact. Through this exploration, individuals can challenge distortions and develop more balanced perspectives, ultimately reducing emotional distress and promoting mental well-being. This technique is particularly effective in CBT settings.

3;3 Enhancing Self-Awareness

The Downward Arrow Technique significantly enhances self-awareness by guiding individuals to explore the deeper meanings behind their thoughts. Through structured probing, it illuminates core beliefs that may be driving emotions and behaviors. Worksheets facilitate this journey, offering a clear path to uncover hidden assumptions and beliefs. Increased self-awareness empowers individuals to recognize patterns, challenge unhelpful beliefs, and develop a more compassionate understanding of themselves. This heightened insight is crucial for personal growth and emotional resilience, making the technique a valuable tool in both therapy and self-directed practice.

How to Use the Downward Arrow Technique

The technique involves repeatedly asking probing questions to uncover core beliefs, starting with surface thoughts and exploring deeper meanings. Worksheets guide the structured process effectively.

4.1 Step-by-Step Process

The Downward Arrow Technique begins with identifying a negative thought, such as “I’m a failure.” The next step is to ask, “What does this mean about me?” This is repeated for each subsequent thought, drilling down to uncover deeper beliefs. For example, if the response is “I’m inadequate,” the follow-up might be, “What would happen if you were inadequate?” This process continues until core beliefs are revealed, allowing for cognitive restructuring and challenging of these beliefs. Worksheets often include columns to document each thought and the corresponding questions, providing a structured format for this exploration. The goal is to move from surface-level thoughts to underlying assumptions, enabling individuals to examine and modify unhelpful patterns of thinking. By systematically probing each thought, the technique helps individuals gain insight into the root causes of their distress, facilitating meaningful change and personal growth.

4.2 Socratic Questioning Method

The Socratic Questioning Method in the Downward Arrow Technique involves posing probing questions to explore underlying beliefs. Therapists or individuals ask open-ended questions like, “What does this thought mean about you?” or “Why would that be so bad?” This encourages self-reflection and helps uncover deeper beliefs. The process is non-judgmental, fostering insight and awareness. By systematically challenging surface-level thoughts, individuals can identify and question core beliefs, promoting cognitive restructuring and personal growth. Worksheets often guide this process, ensuring structured exploration and reflection.

4.3 Identifying Core Beliefs Through Probing Questions

Probing questions are central to the Downward Arrow Technique, guiding individuals to uncover core beliefs. Starting with a negative thought, repeated inquiries like, “What does this mean about you?” or “Why is that significant?” help reveal deeper beliefs. This method challenges surface-level thoughts, enabling individuals to recognize and question underlying assumptions. Worksheets often structure this process, ensuring systematic exploration. By addressing these core beliefs, individuals can reframe negative thought patterns and work toward cognitive restructuring and emotional relief.

Applications of the Downward Arrow Technique

The Downward Arrow Technique is widely applied in CBT to address anxiety, depression, and personal growth. It enhances self-awareness and helps individuals challenge negative thought patterns effectively.

5.1 Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT)

The Downward Arrow Technique is integral to CBT, aiding therapists in uncovering core beliefs that drive emotions and behaviors. By probing surface thoughts, it reveals deeper beliefs, fostering cognitive restructuring. This method, developed by Dr. David Burns, is often combined with Socratic questioning to guide clients towards self-discovery. Worksheets are commonly used to document and explore these beliefs systematically, making it a practical tool for both therapists and individuals seeking to understand and challenge negative thought patterns effectively in a structured manner.

5.2 Anxiety and Depression Management

The Downward Arrow Technique is widely used in managing anxiety and depression by helping individuals identify and challenge underlying core beliefs. It enables clients to explore how negative thoughts contribute to distress. By systematically probing these beliefs, the technique fosters awareness and encourages cognitive restructuring. Worksheets often accompany this method, providing a structured way to document and analyze thoughts. This approach helps reduce symptoms of anxiety and depression by addressing their root causes, promoting long-term emotional well-being and resilience.

5.3 Personal Growth and Development

The Downward Arrow Technique supports personal growth by fostering self-awareness and insight into underlying beliefs. By exploring these beliefs, individuals can challenge negative patterns and develop a more balanced perspective. This process encourages emotional resilience and mindfulness, promoting overall well-being. Worksheets guide users to reflect on their thoughts systematically, aiding in long-term personal development and self-improvement. The technique helps individuals move beyond surface-level issues, enabling them to cultivate a deeper understanding of themselves and their potential for positive change.

Creating a Downward Arrow Technique Worksheet

A worksheet guides users to systematically explore thoughts, identifying core beliefs through sequential questions. It helps organize reflections, making the process structured and accessible for deeper insight.

6.1 Structure and Design

The worksheet typically includes sections for recording initial thoughts, probing questions, and identifying core beliefs. It may start with a situation description, followed by sequential questions like “What does this mean about me?” to uncover deeper beliefs. The design ensures clarity and flow, guiding users through the process step-by-step. Additional columns may be included for alternative thoughts and actionable steps, promoting reflection and practical application.

6.2 Key Questions to Include

Essential questions in the worksheet guide users to explore deeper meanings of their thoughts. Common prompts include, “What does this thought mean about me?” and “Why would that be so bad?” These questions help uncover core beliefs by encouraging users to probe further. Additional queries like “What would happen next?” or “What does this say about my worth?” are often included to facilitate reflection and insight. These structured questions ensure a systematic approach to identifying and challenging negative thought patterns effectively.

6.3 Tips for Effective Use

To maximize the benefits of the worksheet, encourage honesty and self-reflection. Allocate sufficient time to explore thoughts thoroughly. Review responses regularly to track progress. Consider sharing insights with a therapist for deeper understanding. Practice consistency to reinforce new thought patterns. Use the worksheet alongside other CBT tools for comprehensive growth. These strategies enhance the technique’s effectiveness in identifying and challenging core beliefs, fostering meaningful personal development.

Real-Life Examples and Case Studies

A patient believing, “If I ask for help, I’m incompetent,” used the worksheet to explore this thought, revealing deeper fears of rejection and failure through systematic probing.

7.1 Practical Applications in Therapy

In therapy, the worksheet is used to guide clients in identifying core beliefs. For instance, a patient with anxiety explored the thought, “I’m a failure,” leading to uncovering beliefs about inadequacy and rejection. Through systematic questioning, the therapist helped the patient connect these beliefs to past experiences. This process allowed the patient to challenge and reframe these beliefs, reducing anxiety and improving self-esteem. The worksheet’s structured approach ensures deep exploration, making it an effective tool for therapists to address underlying issues in cognitive behavioral therapy sessions. Its clear design facilitates progress tracking, enhancing therapy outcomes significantly. Therapists find it particularly useful for clients struggling with persistent negative thought patterns, as it provides a tangible method to explore and understand the root causes of their emotions and behaviors.

7.2 Success Stories and Outcomes

Many clients have reported significant progress after using the Downward Arrow Technique worksheet. For example, a client with depression identified core beliefs about worthlessness and rejection, leading to meaningful behavioral changes. Another client with anxiety reduced panic attacks by challenging negative thoughts uncovered through the technique. Therapists note improved emotional regulation and self-awareness in clients who consistently use the worksheet. Success stories highlight how this tool empowers individuals to reframe harmful beliefs, fostering long-term mental well-being and resilience. The structured approach of the worksheet ensures measurable outcomes, making it a valuable resource in therapy settings.

Best Practices for Implementing the Technique

Therapists should guide clients empathetically, ensuring consistent worksheet use. Clients benefit from regular practice, fostering self-awareness and emotional regulation. Patience and persistence enhance outcomes in therapy.

8.1 Guidance for Therapists

Therapists should employ empathy and active listening when guiding clients through the worksheet. Encourage clients to explore deeper thoughts without judgment. Use open-ended questions to help uncover core beliefs. Regularly review progress and provide feedback. Ensure clients understand the purpose of each question to foster engagement. Encourage consistent use of the worksheet for homework to reinforce learning. Be patient, as some clients may struggle to identify core beliefs initially. Offer support and validate their experiences to build trust and rapport.

8.2 Tips for Clients or Individuals

Be honest and open when completing the worksheet. Take your time to reflect on each question deeply. Practice the technique regularly to build awareness. Review your progress with a therapist or trusted guide. Start with specific negative thoughts before exploring deeper beliefs. Be patient with yourself, as uncovering core beliefs can take time. Celebrate small insights and remember, this process is a journey toward self-understanding and growth.

Comparing the Downward Arrow Technique with Other CBT Methods

The downward arrow technique stands out for its focus on uncovering core beliefs through Socratic questioning. Unlike cognitive restructuring, which challenges surface-level thoughts, this method delves deeper. It differs from behavioral activation by emphasizing thought exploration over action. While mindfulness-based techniques focus on acceptance, the downward arrow aims to uncover underlying beliefs. Exposure therapy targets specific fears, whereas this technique identifies broader patterns. Its unique depth makes it a valuable complement to other CBT approaches, enhancing self-awareness and addressing root causes of distress.

9.1 Similarities with Cognitive Restructuring

The downward arrow technique shares similarities with cognitive restructuring, as both aim to identify and challenge negative thought patterns. Both methods focus on exploring underlying beliefs and assumptions that drive emotional distress. Cognitive restructuring involves modifying distorted thoughts, while the downward arrow technique delves deeper to uncover core beliefs. Both approaches emphasize the importance of awareness and questioning to reduce distress. They complement each other in CBT, with cognitive restructuring addressing surface-level thoughts and the downward arrow technique targeting deeper beliefs, providing a comprehensive approach to thought modification.

9.2 Differences from Other Socratic Questioning Techniques

The downward arrow technique differs from other Socratic questioning methods by its structured, sequential approach to uncovering core beliefs. Unlike general Socratic questioning, which can be more open-ended, this technique systematically drills down to identify deeply held beliefs. It focuses on exploring the underlying meanings of thoughts, making it more targeted than broader Socratic methods. While other techniques may address surface-level thoughts, the downward arrow technique is specifically designed to expose core beliefs, providing a clearer path to understanding and challenging deeply ingrained assumptions.

The downward arrow technique is a transformative CBT tool, empowering individuals to uncover and challenge core beliefs. Worksheets provide structured guidance, making it accessible for practical application and lasting change.

10.1 Summary of Key Points

The downward arrow technique is a CBT method developed by Dr. David Burns to identify and challenge core beliefs. It involves probing questions to uncover deeper thoughts. Worksheets guide users through this process, helping to restructure negative beliefs. Effective for anxiety and depression, it enhances self-awareness and promotes personal growth. Therapists and individuals can use it to explore underlying beliefs systematically, fostering meaningful change and emotional well-being through structured exercises and reflection.

10.2 Encouragement for Further Exploration

Exploring the downward arrow technique further can deepen your understanding of its transformative potential. By consistently using worksheets and practicing Socratic questioning, you can uncover core beliefs and reframe negative thoughts. This method, rooted in CBT, offers practical tools for personal growth and emotional resilience. Encourage yourself to embrace this technique as a lifelong skill, enhancing self-awareness and fostering positive change. Dive into recommended readings and guides to master its application, empowering yourself to navigate challenges with clarity and confidence.

Additional Resources and References

Download the Downward Arrow Technique Worksheet PDF from reputable CBT resources. Explore Dr. David Burns’ “Feeling Good” and R. Harris’ guides for practical tools and insights.

11.1 Recommended Reading

Dr. David Burns’ “Feeling Good” and “The Feeling Good Handbook” offer comprehensive insights into CBT techniques. For worksheets, explore Mindfulness Exercises and Cognitive Behavioral Therapy resources online. These guides provide practical tools for applying the downward arrow technique effectively. Worksheets from NG Bartholomew and R. Harris are also highly recommended for structured exercises. These resources are essential for both therapists and individuals seeking to understand and implement the technique for personal growth or clinical practice.

11.2 Where to Find Worksheets and Guides

Worksheets and guides for the downward arrow technique can be found in resources like Mindfulness Exercises and Cognitive Behavioral Therapy websites. Specific PDFs, such as those by NG Bartholomew and R. Harris, offer structured exercises. Many CBT workbooks, including Dr; David Burns’ materials, also provide downloadable templates. Additionally, subscription-based platforms like Teach Mindfulness Exercises offer comprehensive guides. These resources are ideal for both therapists and individuals seeking practical tools to apply the technique effectively.

The post downward arrow technique worksheet pdf appeared first on Every Task, Every Guide: The Instruction Portal
.