Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in May and a Look Ahead to June Sales

A brief excerpt:

After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that is reported after the NAR. This is the final look at local markets in May.

There were several key stories for May:

• Sales NSA are down year-over-year (YoY) through May, and sales last year were the lowest since 1995! The YoY comparisons will be easier the next several months, so sales in 2025 might be close to the level in 2024.

• Sales SA were down YoY for the 4th consecutive month and 41 of the last 45 months.

• Months-of-supply is at the highest level since 2016 (tying one month near the start of the pandemic).

• The median price is barely up YoY, and with the increases in inventory, some regional areas will see more price declines.

Sales at 4.03 million on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis were above the consensus estimate; however, housing economist Tom Lawler’s estimate was right on (usually very close).

Sales averaged close to 5.44 million SAAR for the month of May in the 2017-2019 period. So, sales are about 26% below pre-pandemic levels.
...
In May, sales in these markets were down 3.8% YoY. Last month, in April, these same markets were also down 3.8% YoY Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). The NAR reported sales in May were down 4.0% YoY NSA, so this sample is close.

Important: There were fewer working days in May 2025 (21) as in May 2024 (22). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data was higher than for the NSA data. According to the NAR, seasonally adjusted sales were only down 0.7% YoY in May.
...
More local data coming in July for activity in June!

There is much more in the article.

NYC Mayor Eric Adams To Run For Reelection Against Rival Mamdani

Authored by Arjun Singh via The Epoch Times,

Mayor Eric Adams launched his campaign for the November general election during a June 26 press conference on the steps of City Hall, days after state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani presumptively won the Democratic primary.

Adams, 64, was elected in 2021 as a Democrat but chose not to run in the Democratic primary amid his unpopularity among progressive voters stemming from a now-withdrawn federal indictment on bribery charges and his concurrent decision to permit U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to detain foreign nationals at the city’s Rikers Island jail.

In the primary, Mamdani, 33, an Indian-Ugandan American state assemblyman from Queens, defeated former Gov. Andrew Cuomo on a progressive platform, making him Adams’s principal opponent in the general election. The city’s progressive lean makes the GOP a nonfactor in the race.

The Adams Campaign

Adams addressed Mamdani’s victory and explained his reelection platform, which he presented as a continuation of work underway during his first term. He highlighted his actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was still underway when his term began.

“People were debating should our children be in school or not, but as a leader that was unwavering ... I stood strong and firm against the naysayers and said, ‘We’re going to open our schools and protect our children,’” said Adams.

He added: “Crime was moving at a higher rate. Businesses were fleeing this city. There was a lot of uncertainty. Black and brown unemployment was high. ... With my leadership, [I said] we must forge ahead a pattern and a pathway.”

Adams’s approval rating has significantly declined during his term. In March, it was 20 percent, the lowest in the 30-year-old poll’s recorded history. Additionally, 56 percent of voters wanted Adams to resign before his term concluded.

Adams stated that his term achieved several accomplishments in key areas, particularly in public safety and affordability, which are the top issues for voters.

“We took 20,000 guns off our streets ... and we prevented the loss of life of black and brown people. ... Gun arrests are at a record high, removals of guns are record high.

“Tech is booming, tourism is back, Broadway had the best 12 months in recorded history, construction is growing, and yes, Times Square is alive again,” said Adams. “We’re turning unused buildings into homes and streamlining permitting,” he said, addressing the housing crisis.

During his remarks, Adams also praised former Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire owner of Bloomberg LP, who served as the city’s mayor for three terms from 2002 to 2013, and who remains popular in the city. Bloomberg, the city’s last Republican mayor who has since become a Democrat, endorsed Cuomo during the primary.

“I saw [leadership] when Mayor Bloomberg came into office. ... He turned around this city with real leadership and focus, and I knew I had to have that same leadership, and determination, and focus,” said Adams. “That’s why we’re here today ... asking for four more years,” he added, with the crowd breaking into a chant of “four more years.”

Adams said that if reelected, he would focus on reducing crime, launch a citywide mental health initiative, advance workforce development, expand housing, and clean streets.

Adams on Mamdani

Adams criticized Mamdani for having few political achievements. Adams previously served as the Borough president of Brooklyn, a New York state senator, and for 22 years in the New York City Police Department (NYPD), reaching the rank of captain.

“They have a record of tweets. I have a record on these streets,” Adams said. “They talk about problems; I fix them. ... You don’t lead this city from a soapbox.” He said Mamdani was “an assemblymember who did not pass a bill” and was promising a “fantasy state.”

Three bills sponsored by Mamdani have been signed into law during his tenure at the Legislature. Additionally, several provisions of bills that he introduced in the Assembly have been included in other legislation that eventually passed the body and were enacted.

Criticizing Mamdani’s Democratic Socialist politics, Adams said New York is “not a city of handouts” but “a city of ‘hands up.’”

“This is a city, not a socialism. ... There is no dignity in someone giving you everything for free. There’s dignity in giving you a job, so you can provide for your family,” Adams said.

“You are going to see a movement that you have never witnessed before. I told all of you, in the beginning, this was going to be the most interesting political campaign in the history of the city. It didn’t stop on June 24, it started on June 24,” he said. “I’m ready to be your mayor for another four years.”

Some protesters were constantly heckling during Adams’s remarks.

“You can call me all the names you want, but I’m only going to answer to one: Mayor Adams,” the mayor said.

Mamdani’s campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 11:05

Graham Breaks With Trump Over Iran Strike Effectiveness: 'I Don't Know Where The Enriched Uranium Is'

President Trump is not going to like this. After getting out of a classified Senate briefing on Thursday, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham's first words to the press and to the American people were that he "didn’t want people to think the problem is over, because it’s not" - in reference to the Trump-ordered B-2 bomber strikes on Iran's main nuclear and enrichment facilities.

"The real question is, have we obliterated their desire to have a nuclear weapon," Graham questioned. "I don't want people to think that the site wasn't severely damaged or obliterated. It was. But having said that, I don't want people to think the problem is over, because it's not." 

"I don’t know where the 900 pounds of enriched uranium exists, but it wasn't part of the target set for several years," Graham was quoted in the NY Times as saying.

He did try to voice acknowledgement of the official White House position, perhaps trying to keep the peace with Trump, saying "They are obliterated today but they can reconstitute."

The NY Times summarizes of where things stand, "There is confusion also about where the stockpile was originally. Mr. Trump has suggested it was at Fordo. Others have said some was at Natanz."

And further the Times writes, "The International Atomic Energy Agency has said the majority of the stockpile was at Isfahan, where Iran had reactors and other nuclear facilities that used the uranium. And some experts have suggested Iran has dispersed the stockpile."

Meanwhile, we recall President Trump's words given to our White House correspondent just one week ago...

"People have to be very careful with what they say, because their mouth can get them into a lot of trouble," he responded when asked about Graham and Pompeo being on the ground in Ukraine possibly sabotaging efforts at peace.

“People have to be very careful with what they say, because their mouth can get them into a lot of trouble”

— Donald Trump, about Lindsey Grahampic.twitter.com/MDKIjk2786 https://t.co/oO7bpupg3M

— Liam McCollum (@MLiamMcCollum) June 26, 2025

A number of Democratic Senators after their classified Iran briefing also had similar reactions to Graham.

"I walk away from that briefing still under the belief that we have not obliterated the program," Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut told reporters. "The president was deliberately misleading the public when he said the program was obliterated. It is certain that there is still significant capability, significant equipment that remain." 

"You cannot bomb knowledge out of existence — no matter how many scientists you kill," Murphy added. "There are still people in Iran who how to work centrifuges. And if they still have enriched uranium and they still have the ability to use centrifuges, then you're not setting back the program by years. You're setting back the program by months." 

Israel claims to have assassinated at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists during the nearly two-weeks of bombing and sabotage operations against the Islamic Republic.

Top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia, said following the intel briefing, "Listen, I hope that is the final assessment. But if not, does that end up providing a false sense of comfort to the American people?" 

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer had this to say: "What was clear is that there was no coherent strategy, no end game, no plan, no specific, no detailed plan on how Iran does not attain a nuclear weapon."

Again, Trump isn't going to be happy to see Graham siding with the Democrats on this one. But Fox too has been very skeptical, as have other conservative as well as independent outlets.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 10:45

 

 

This week, I speak with Velina Peneva, group chief investment officer at insurance giant Swiss Re. We discuss the business of reinsurance, managing risk, her career path and more.

Peneva started her career at Bain & Company in 1998 and later became Partner in 2011. While she was there, she worked with fund managers and investors, became a leader in the private equity practice in Zurich and became a member of the firm’s global investment committee. Peneva joined Swiss Re in 2017, becoming co-head of client solutions & analytics, before being named Group Chief Investment Office and member of the Group Executive Comittee in 2023.

She explains the importance of matching your assets to your future liabilities, and why liquidity and quality are so important.

A list of her current reading is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Kate Moore, Chief Investment Officer of Citi Wealth; responsible for overseeing investments, portfolio strategy and asset allocation for the trillion dollars Citi Wealth manages. Previously, she was Head of Thematic Strategy and PM for the Global Allocation Fund at BlackRock.

 

 

Favorite Books

 

 

 

 

The post MiB: Velina Peneva, Swiss Re Chief Investment Officer appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Fed's "Transitory" Mistake Is Affecting Its Outlook

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In 2023 and 2024, the Fed was under intense public and media scrutiny for calling the post-pandemic surge in inflation “transitory.” Critics argued that the Fed’s failure to anticipate the persistence and severity of rising prices undermined its credibility. Yet, with the benefit of hindsight and historical context, the Fed’s position wasn’t entirely misguided. Inflation proved temporary in a broader economic sense, and by 2025, the data confirmed a significant cooling of price pressures.

However, the Fed’s mistake wasn’t the “transitory” label—it was the Fed’s late response to raising interest rates and halting quantitative easing. As shown, the combined impact of the massive surge in the Government’s deficit spending (stimulus checks and infrastructure bills) and the Fed’s $120 billion monthly “quantitative easing” campaign caused a massive jump in economic growth and inflation. However, instead of cutting back on stimulus when the economy rebounded, the Fed’s mistake was keeping its “foot on the gas” for too long. These delays allowed the inflationary fire to burn hotter and longer than necessary, exacerbated by an overlooked driver: excessive government spending.

Despite the elevated levels of total economic stimulus, inflation and economic growth have subsided as the economy continues normalizing. However, to understand the Fed’s current policy risks, particularly in light of its recent warnings about tariffs, it’s essential to look back at past inflation spikes

Historical Inflation Spikes and Their Resolution

U.S. economic history offers several instructive examples of inflationary episodes and how they eventually resolved.

• Post-WWII Inflation (1946–1948): After World War II, inflation surged to nearly 20% as price controls ended and pent-up consumer demand met constrained supply. But this spike was short-lived. As production normalized and demand stabilized, inflation quickly receded. The Fed did not need any drastic monetary tightening.

• The 1970s Stagflation: The most notorious inflation era came during the 1970s, driven by oil shocks, wage-price spirals, and loose monetary policy. Inflation remained high for nearly a decade. It wasn’t until Paul Volcker’s aggressive interest rate hikes in the early 1980s, pushing the federal funds rate above 15%, that inflation fell, though at the cost of a deep recession.

• Greenspan’s “Inflation Boogyman:” In the late 90s, Alan Greenspan worried that an inflation surge was coming and aggressively began to hike rates into that anticipation. The further tightening of money policy contributed to the blowup of numerous “dot.com” companies that were heavily leveraged with no revenues. Instead of rising, inflation collapsed as the “Dot.com” crash devastated the economy.

• Post-GFC Disinflation: After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, many feared stimulus and Fed intervention would trigger inflation. Instead, the opposite occurred. Inflation remained stubbornly low for over a decade, highlighting how debt overhangs and weak demand can suppress prices even amid central bank easing.

Compared to these episodes, the COVID-driven inflation surge stands out for its rapid onset and similarly swift decline. Prices surged due to supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and historic stimulus. But by 2025, inflation is back to near-target levels. The duration of elevated inflation, from early 2021 through late 2023, was short by historical standards, and it faded as supply chains normalized and stimulus effects waned.

The historical shortcomings of the Fed’s actions, repeated policy mistakes, and flawed outlooks are clearly evident. The Fed hikes rates, creates an economic or credit-related event, and then cuts rates to fix it.

As such, investors should ask themselves why they are confident in the Fed’s current assessment of tariff-induced inflation risks.

The Fed’s Tariff Fears: Misreading the Present Through the Lens of the Past?

At the June 18, 2025, press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern that rising tariffs could reignite inflation. With trade policy becoming increasingly protectionist, particularly toward China and Mexico, the Fed is wary that tariffs could push up import prices and thus overall inflation. However, there’s an important distinction: inflation data from the last four months has shown no measurable impact from recent tariff actions. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has remained stable or declined, while core inflation has softened. Meanwhile, job growth has slowed, and wage gains have moderated. All classic signs of a cooling economy.

This link between the economy and inflation is evident from the Economic Composite Index, which comprises nearly 100 hard and soft data points. Following the spike in economic activity post-pandemic, economic growth continues to decline. Given that inflation is solely a function of economic supply and demand, it is unsurprising that it continues to cool.

This raises a critical policy question: Is the Fed now over-compensating on the cautious side because of its past missteps with “transitory” inflation?

If so, the risk is that the Fed may once again make another policy mistake, as has repeatedly been the case in the past. After keeping rates too low for too long post-pandemic, policymakers might be too hesitant to cut rates, fearing another inflation flare-up that may never materialize. This fear-based approach risks undermining an already slowing economy.

The Risk of Being Wrong Again: What If Tariff Inflation Never Arrives

Tariffs are designed to make foreign goods more expensive. However, supply chains and pricing are far more flexible in today’s globalized economy. If importers can shift production to tariff-free countries, renegotiate supplier contracts, or absorb costs to maintain market share, the inflationary effects of tariffs can be muted or even nonexistent. They are already doing this, as noted recently by CNN.

“The bonded warehouse route takes the opposite approach. Rather than mess with a good’s contents or move production elsewhere, businesses can import products from across the world without paying any tariffs when they enter the US — as long as they remain locked up in a special customs-regulated warehouse. Businesses can keep goods in these warehouses for up to five years without paying a tariff. They only pay the current tariff rate when they take goods out of storage. It’s a bet that tariff rates will go down in the short or medium term.”

Furthermore, companies are “reclassifying and redesigning” products to get lower tariff treatments.

“In other words, companies try to say their article or their good is something that gets low tariff treatment relative to what it might be, in essence. For example, Marvel successfully argued in court in 2003 that X-Men action figures are non-human toys (despite the premise of the franchise) rather than dolls, nearly halving their tax rate.” – NPR

Lastly, as discussed in “Tariff Risk Isn’t Inflation,” economists always forget the importance of consumer choice. The only payee of tariffs is the producers. Consumers can purchase less, delay, or exclude certain products from their consumption. To wit:

“Today, globalization and technology give consumers vast choices in the products they buy. While instituting a tariff on a set of products from China may indeed raise the prices of those specific products, consumers have easy choices for substitution. A recent survey by Civic Science showed an excellent example of why tariffs won’t increase prices (always a function of supply and demand).”

Of course, if demand drops for products with tariffs, prices will fall, reducing inflationary pressures.

Recent economic data suggests exactly that. Despite new levies on Chinese electric vehicles and Mexican steel, consumer durables and core goods prices have not moved materially higher. Businesses appear to be adapting quickly, with many shifting sourcing to Vietnam, India, or reshoring certain elements of production.

This raises the danger of a policy mismatch: If the Fed waits for inflation that doesn’t arrive, it may keep real interest rates excessively high for too long, just as it kept them too low following the pandemic. The consequences could be severe:

• Slower Economic Growth: Elevated rates in a disinflationary environment slow investment and consumption, slowing GDP growth.

• Labor Market Weakness: As rate-sensitive sectors (like housing and manufacturing) continue to weaken, layoffs may rise, further pressuring employment.

• Financial Instability: Prolonged tight monetary policy increases the risk of credit defaults, especially among small businesses and lower-income households with floating-rate debt.

If the Fed is fighting a phantom threat, as Alan Greenspan did in the late 90s, and tariff-driven inflation never arrives, it could inadvertently engineer a downturn. And much like in 2021 and 2022, this would be a policy failure driven not by bad data, but by misjudging the economic environment.,

Conclusion: Learning the Right Lesson from “Transitory”

The Fed’s credibility rests not on never being wrong, but on being adaptive and forward-looking. Inflation has cooled, wage growth has moderated, and economic momentum is slowing. Now is the time for the Fed to focus not on headline fears, but on real-time data.

If tariffs have not yet translated into price increases, and employment indicators suggest slack is growing, the Fed should not delay necessary rate cuts to defend its credibility. Doing so risks repeating the mistake it made during the pandemic: ignoring the lagging effects of previous decisions.

Cutting rates too late would be just as damaging as hiking them too slowly.

The media mocked the Fed’s “transitory” narrative, but inflation was short-lived in the grand scheme. What mattered more was how long the Fed waited to act. With tariffs yet to trigger a real inflationary response and the economy showing signs of deceleration, the greater risk may be inaction, not inflation.

Investors should be alert to the Fed’s tendency to overcorrect past mistakes. Just as policy stayed too loose after COVID, it may now stay too tight for too long in 2025. Recognizing that monetary policy must adapt, not just react, will be key for policymakers and market participants navigating the road ahead.

For more in-depth analysis and actionable investment strategies, visit RealInvestmentAdvice.com. Stay ahead of the markets with expert insights tailored to help you achieve your financial goals.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 10:30

Supreme Court Slaps Down Activist Judges In Birthright Citizenship, LGBTQ Schoolbook Cases

Update (1057ET): The hits keep on coming out of the Supreme Court, as a second Friday opinion just backed religious parents opposed to LGBTQ+ schoolbooks, also in a 6-3 vote along ideological lines...

The case, Mahmoud v. Taylor, challenged Montgomery County Public Schools’ refusal to notify parents or allow exemptions when LGBTQ+ content was included in early-grade curricula. The decision overturns lower court rulings and is expected to have significant implications for how public schools nationwide handle religious objections to inclusive educational materials.

The case, Mahmoud v. Taylor, raised the question of whether Montgomery County Public Schools (MCPS) infringed upon the parents’ right under the First Amendment to exercise their religion when it included storybooks with LGBTQ+ characters in its curriculum without allowing families to opt out based on religious beliefs. The high court’s opinion will directly impact MCPS policies and is likely to have far-reaching effects on public schools nationwide. -Bethesda Magazine 

Justice Alito wrote in the ruling: "Parents challenging the Board’s introduction of the “LGBTQ+-inclusive” storybooks, along with its decision to withhold opt outs, are entitled to a preliminary injunction...Without an injunction, the parents will continue to suffer an unconstitutional burden on their religious exercise, and such a burden unquestionably constitutes irreparable injury." (via Curits Houck). 

BREAKING: Supreme Court gives religious parents opt-out from LGBTQ books

6-3 with liberals in dissent, Alito has the opinionhttps://t.co/FRuWV1KGEV @CourthouseNews pic.twitter.com/IcFnL409p8

— Kelsey Reichmann (@KelseyReichmann) June 27, 2025

Earlier, the Court blocked the ability for activist judges to unilaterally block a president's executive orders - narrowing down injunctive relief to those who filed the lawsuit, not the entire nation. 

Bad day so far for the left...

*  *  *

The Supreme Court on Friday allowed President Trump's executive order restricting birthright citizenship to go into effect in some areas of the country - blocking judges' ability to halt the president's policies nationwide.

The order, signed Trump's first day in office, curbs birthright citizenship for children born on US soil if they don't have at least one parent with permanent legal status - which quickly became a legal question surrounding the 14th Amendment's Citizenship Clause. 

Supreme Court, by a 6-3 vote, rules nationwide injunctions exceed the power of individual federal court judges (the case is about birthright citizenship but the Court didn't decide the merits of that).

Barrett wrote the majority opinion. Sotomayor, Kagan and KBJ dissent. https://t.co/Wtbzz4X1Ao

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) June 27, 2025

The 6-3 ruling along ideological lines found that three federal district judges went too far in issuing nationwide injunctions against Trump's order. The decision hobbles a key tool used by venue-shopping Democrats and the activist judges that have been blocking Trump's path since January - with every court having found the legality of Trump's EO 'likely' unconstitutional. 

Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was specifically called out for being retarded...

That said, it doesn't definitively resolve whether Trump's restrictions on birthright citizenship are constitutional - a question which could end up in front of the Supremes down the road. It does, howeever, narrow the lower court rulings to only block Trump's order as applied to the 22 Democratic-led states, expectant mothers and immigration organizations that are suing. 

In her majority opinion for the Supreme Court nuking universal injunctions, Amy Coney Barrett also juked Kentanji Brown Jackson from orbit.

“We will not dwell on Justice Jackson’s argument, which is at odds with more than two centuries worth of precedent, not to mention the… pic.twitter.com/je6FsoXxCi

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) June 27, 2025

Furthermore, Justices Alito and Thomas note that the Supreme Court 'completely punted on the issue of third-party class certifications, which will be the gimmick now used to get around the universal injunction ban," according to The Federalist's Sean Davis.

In a concurring opinion, Alito and Thomas note that the Supreme Court completely punted on the issue of third-party class certifications, which will be the gimmick now used to get around the universal injunction ban. pic.twitter.com/6zX6EV4Zbf

— Sean Davis (@seanmdav) June 27, 2025

The cases will now return to lower courts where they will play out as Trump's order partially goes into effect. Once the appeals courts issue their final rulings, the parties could bring the case back to the SCOTUS. 

Read the ruling below:

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 10:16

 – by New Deal democrat The last significant data for the first half of 2025, personal income and spending for May, was released this morning. It was the first month that reflected the impact of Tariff-palooza!, and boy howdy was it impacted. Not a single metric was positive. One metric was unchanged; everything else was negative. […]

The post May personal income and spending: consumer payback for Tariff-palooza! is a B!t©h appeared first on Angry Bear.

UMich Confidence Jumps As Inflation Fears Plunge Most Since 2001

Following this morning's very modest rise in Core PCE (coming just a couple of weeks after CPI disappointed the Trump Tariff infation fear-mongers once again) and a month since the UMich survey found that "Women, Democrats, & Low-Income Americans Are Out Of Their TDS-Addled Minds", and one week after Goldman finally called out the idiocy of the UMich survey, slamming its "partisanship" and the "sample design break starting from June 2024"...

... not to mention that it has been chronically wrong, warning that "Michigan inflation expectations have already risen even more than in 2022 and this time long-term expectations have risen sharply too, all before tariffs have even meaningfully boosted consumer prices" while "technicalities have exaggerated the increase in the Michigan [inflation] survey, as other survey measures and market-implied inflation compensation have not risen much at horizons beyond the next year", moments ago the final UMich survey for the month of June saw some notable revisions to the prelim prints, to wit:

The final June sentiment index increased to 60.7 from 52.2 a month earlier, according to the University of Michigan.

The 8.5-point increase was the largest since the start of 2024. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for no change from the preliminary reading of 60.5.

“The improvement was broad-based across numerous facets of the economy,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

“With the recent moderation in both tariff levels and trade policy volatility, consumers now appear to believe that their worst fears may not come to pass and have moderated their expectations accordingly.”

More notably, consumers expect prices to rise 5% over the next year, data released Friday showed. That is down slightly from the preliminary reading. It's also far better than the 6.6% registered in May - the biggest monthly improvement since 2001.

They saw costs rising at an annual rate of 4% over the next five to 10 years, also lower than a month earlier.

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, it was Democrats that eased back (very modestly) on their inflation fears (over the short term)...

Source: Bloomberg

...and over the medium term (but independents seem to have caught the 'tariff derangement syndrome)...

Source: Bloomberg

As a reminder, its the Democratic-run states that are seeing the highest level of inflation, so perhaps they're on to something...

Source: Bloomberg

The latest data suggest sluggish household demand, especially for services, extended into May after the weakest quarter for consumer spending since the onset of the pandemic.

“Consumer views are still broadly consistent with an economic slowdown and an increase in inflation to come,” Hsu said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 10:10

Real gross domestic product decreased in 39 states in the first quarter of 2025, with the percent change ranging from 1.7 percent at an annual rate in South Carolina to -6.1 percent in Iowa and Nebraska. Personal income, in current dollars, increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2025, with the percent change ranging from 12.7 percent at an annual rate in North Dakota to 3.2 percent in Washington state. Full Text

ICE, ICE Baby: Denver City Council Ends Car Theft Tracking System To Protect Illegal Immigrants

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The Denver City Council has voted unanimously to shutter a highly successful anti-theft auto license plate tracking system. The system was not closed due to concerns about privacy or finances. It was shut down because Democratic members believed that ICE could use the data to deport illegals.

In May, the council refused to renew the $666,000 contract with Flock for camera monitors around 70 Denver intersections to screen for car theft.

That system resulted in the recovery of 170 stolen cars and 300 arrests. It is also credited with key evidence in the investigation of hit-and-run and murder cases.

However, it could also be used to assist ICE, and that is all that matters. Councilman Kevin Flynn explained it is all about Trump’s election:

“We know that it can help solve crime. But I think since maybe Jan. 20 of this year, those concerns are greatly heightened and have a new reality about them.”

Council member Sarah Parady added:

“We’re living in an era where just this last week, actually, an executive order came out instructing the Department of Justice and the FBI to look for reasons to prosecute local elected officials and activists who they believe are, quote, unquote, obstructing ICE enforcement. This kind of surveillance technology is a gift if you have that kind of ill intent, and the federal government has that ill intent right now.”

Mayor Mike Johnston also stated that they need to halt these arrests because “today’s environment is much different than when the pilot began in early 2024, and there are new community concerns surrounding this technology.”

The police are obviously not happy but car thieves are thrilled.

If this seems utterly insane, keep in mind that this was a unanimous vote of the city council.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 09:45

GOP Kills 'Revenge Tax' In Trump's Megabill, Wall Street Breathes Easy

Wall Street analysts are breathing a major sigh of relief this morning following overnight news that President Trump's 'One, Big, Beautiful Bill' will not include the controversial Section 899 "revenge tax" proposal. The announcement came after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent posted on X, noting that productive discussions with international trade partners have helped "defend American interests."

Trump's support for Section 899 stems from his economic nationalism agenda and desire to penalize foreign countries that discriminate against U.S. companies through digital services taxes and other taxes. This was primarily aimed at countering the taxation of U.S. firms by several European countries, as well as Canada and Australia.

"Based on this progress and understanding, I have asked the Senate and House to remove the Section 899 protective measure from consideration in the One, Big, Beautiful Bill. This understanding with our G7 partners provides greater certainty and stability for the global economy and will enhance growth and investment in the United States and beyond," Bessent wrote in a series of X posts. 

He continued, "By reversing the Biden Administration's unwise commitments, we are now protecting our Nation's authority to enact tax policies that serve the interests of American businesses and workers," adding, "We are also preserving our tax base, preventing the loss of over $100 billion in American taxpayer dollars according to Treasury estimates and the non-partisan Joint Committee on Taxation."

"The Trump Administration remains vigilant against all discriminatory and extraterritorial foreign taxes applied against Americans. We will defend our tax sovereignty and resist efforts to create an unlevel playing field for our citizens and companies," Bessent noted. 

Shortly after Bessent's comments, Finance Committee Chairman Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith (R-Missouri) issued statements on Section 899 and the OECD Pillar 2 / global minimum tax project:

"At the request of Secretary Bessent and in light of this joint understanding to preserve U.S. tax sovereignty and allow U.S. tax laws to co-exist with the Pillar 2 regime, we will remove proposed tax code Section 899 from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and we look forward to active engagement with Treasury on these important issues." 

At the request of @SecScottBessent and in light of this joint understanding to preserve U.S. tax sovereignty and allow U.S. tax laws to co-exist with the Pillar 2 regime, we will remove proposed tax code Section 899 from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and we look forward to…

— Senator Mike Crapo (@MikeCrapo) June 26, 2025

Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities, penned a first take note earlier to clients, calling the move by Bessent a "sigh of relief." 

"Removing Section 899 from the budget negotiations would potentially allow investors to breathe a sigh of relief," Goldberg said, adding, "That said, it's difficult to know if the market seriously expected this statute to make it into the final law."

Deutsche's global head of macro research, Jim Reid, told clients:

"We are also waiting to see if the U.S. administration will pass its budget megabill as they hope by the July 4th holiday. Senate Republicans have been aiming to vote on the bill this week but that timing looks uncertain, with the latest issue being a technical hurdle that some of the proposed Medicaid changes do not meet the strict rules of the reconciliation process that allows to approve budget policies with a simple majority in the Senate. So that could force meaningful last minute changes. One to monitor going into the weekend. There is good news that late last night we found out that the U.S. Treasury Department has asked the Senate and the House to remove Section 899 (aka the "revenge tax") from the bill after a deal was struck with G7 leaders to exempt U.S. companies from some taxes. Given how much email traffic there's been in my inbox on this topic, it's fair to say global investors will breathe a sigh of relief on this news." 

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius noted that "the Senate looks likely to pass the fiscal package by this weekend, though several unresolved issues could delay passage until early July." 

Hatzius provided clients with five key points surrounding the new developments:

1. Senate Finance Committee Chairman Crapo and House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Smith announced that they would remove the provision to increase taxes on foreign investors, businesses, and governments known as Section 899.

2. This follows an announcement from Treasury Secretary Bessent that the U.S. has reached an understanding with other G7 countries to exclude U.S. companies from the tax, and that the U.S. would work to implement this agreement in the OECD framework in coming weeks and months. While Sec. Bessent did not elaborate on what the understanding includes, it seems likely to involve a deal with other countries to grandfather the existing U.S. tax on global intangible low-tax income (GILTI) as a qualified tax under the OECD rules, which would have the effect of reducing foreign taxes on U.S. companies.

3. The Senate's version of Sec. 899 had already been scaled back from the House's provision, but would have raised an estimated $52bn/10yrs. While removing the provision will add to the estimated cost of the bill, the international tax agreement could offset some or all of this, as it would likely result in U.S. multinationals paying a greater share of their tax liabilities to the U.S. and a smaller share to other jurisdictions.

4. While it now looks unlikely that Congress will pass Sec. 899 or something like it this year, we note that the president currently has authority under another longstanding section of law (Sec. 891) to double the tax on foreign individuals and corporations in response to discriminatory or extraterritorial taxes on U.S. entities. In light of the announced agreement, there is little reason to expect this authority to come into play, though it could become relevant if other countries do not follow through with the understanding that Sec. Bessent has announced.

5. The Senate looks likely to pass the fiscal package by this weekend, though several unresolved issues could delay passage until early July. The odds of enactment into law by early July have risen, though we still see a fair chance this could slip to later in July or early August, depending on how long the Senate takes to pass the bill and the extent of disagreements between the House- and Senate-passed versions of the bill.

The big takeaway is that some of Wall Street's top analysts are relieved after the Trump administration dropped the controversial Section 899 from its massive fiscal bill.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 09:30

Iran Denies Any Meeting With US Next Week, Rejects IAEA Inspectors 

Iran says it is still assessing damage at its nuclear sites which were hit during the 12-day war with Israel, and which were bombed in a special Trump-ordered B-2 raid last weekend; however, Tehran has made clear it has no intention to host UN International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Raphael Grossi and his team for inspections.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has acknowledged that the damage was "serious" and that "a detailed assessment of the damage is being carried out by experts from the Atomic Energy Organization [of Iran]."

Mehr News agency

He said further in the Thursday state TV interview, "Now, the discussion of demanding damages [from the US and Israel] and the necessity of providing them has been placed as one of the important issues on the country’s diplomatic agenda."

However, he clarified that an Iranian negotiating team has no plan to meet with the United States, after President Trump earlier proclaimed that Washington planned to have talks with Iran next week.

He said that leaders are still assessing whether talks with the US would be in Iran's interest, after previously saying that the Islamic Republic doesn't engage in negotiations under duress.

Araghchi’s remarks followed the passage of a "binding" bill by Iranian lawmakers to halt all collaboration with the UN nuclear watchdog IAEA.

As for the rejection of talks with the US next week, it flatly contradicts Trump's words during a NATO summit presser at The Hague. "We're going to talk to them next week, with Iran," the president had told reporters.

"I don't care if I have an agreement or not," he said. "The only thing we'd be asking for is what we were asking for before about, 'we want no nuclear.' But we destroyed the nuclear. In other words, that's destroyed. I said, 'Iran will not have nuclear.' Well, we blew it up. It's blown up to kingdom come. And so I don't feel very strongly about it. If we got a document, it wouldn't be bad."

He strongly suggested a deal is no longer needed after all, given the assertion that core nuclear components have been 'destroyed' and 'obliterated'. Later the White House Press Secretary confirmed that there is as yet no meeting with the Iranians scheduled.

Meanwhile, the IAEA's Grossi has expressed doubts: "There is a chance that much of Iran's highly enriched uranium survived Israeli and U.S. attacks because it may have been moved by Tehran soon after the first strikes, U.N. nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi said on Wednesday," according to Reuters.

The Pentagon does not want to answer this key question: where is the 440 kg of near weapons grade Highly Enriched Uranium and could it have been moved?

So I asked some nuclear experts.

Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association, @DarylGKimball explained how Iran could and likely…

— Jennifer Griffin (@JenGriffinFNC) June 26, 2025

A Financial Times article, based on early European intelligence assessments and voiced by EU officials, has concluded something similar. "Preliminary intelligence assessments provided to European governments indicate that Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile remains largely intact following US strikes on its main nuclear sites, two officials have said," the FT wrote Thursday.

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 09:15

Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through May 2025.

CPI Shelter was up 3.9% year-over-year in May, down from 4.0% in April, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in March 2023.
Housing (PCE) was up 4.1% YoY in May, down from 4.2% in April and down from the cycle peak of 8.3% in April 2023.

Since asking rents are mostly flat year-over-year, these measures will slowly continue to decline over the next year as rents for existing tenants continue to increase.
The second graph shows PCE prices, Core PCE prices and Core ex-housing over the last 3 months (annualized):

Key measures are below the Fed's target on a 3-month basis. 

3-month annualized change:
PCE Price Index: 1.1%
Core PCE Prices: 1.7%
Core minus Housing: 1.1%

There appears to be some residual seasonality, especially in Q1.

DOGE Sparks Biggest Plunge In Social Security Handouts Ever; Fed's Favorite Inflation Indicator Ticked Higher In May

The Fed's favorite inflation indicator - Core PCE - came in hotter than expected in May, rising 0.2% MoM (+0.1% MoM exp) and +2.7% YoY (+2.6% YoY exp)...

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly the hyped-up inflationary surge the tariff fearmongers had hoped for as non-durable goods price show modest increase MoM...

Source: Bloomberg

Headline PCE rose 0.1% MoM (as expected) and the YoY change ticked up to +2.3% YoY...

Source: Bloomberg

Non-durable goods flipped from deflationary to inflationary (modestly) in May...

Source: Bloomberg

SuperCore PCE inched higher on a YoY basis (from +3.07% to +3.12% YoY)...

Source: Bloomberg

Both personal income and spending tumbled in May (the former by the most since Sept 2021)...

Source: Bloomberg

On the income side, govt workers saw wage growth slow:

• Private worker wages rose 4.6% yoy, up from 4.4% and the highest since Dec 24

• Govt worker wages rose 5.2%, down from 5.3% and lowest since Oct 22

But, Income's drop was mainly due to a plunge in government handouts...

Source: Bloomberg

With the biggest drop in social security benefit handouts ever as DOGE killed all the payments to those 'dead' or extremely old people...

Source: Bloomberg

The savings rate dropped significantly to 4.5% of DPI...

Source: Bloomberg

Is there enough here to nudge The Fed towards a cut? Or do we keep waiting for the 'lagged' effect of tariffs to finally show up in prices?

This is the 'transitory' no inflationary impact period!

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 08:47

Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)-personal income less personal current taxes-decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent). Personal outlays-the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments-decreased $27.6 billion in May. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in May and the personal saving rate-personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income-was 4.5 percent. Full Text

From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, May 2025

Personal income decreased $109.6 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in May, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—decreased $125.0 billion (0.6 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $29.3 billion (0.1 percent).

Personal outlays—the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments—decreased $27.6 billion in May. Personal saving was $1.01 trillion in May and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 4.5 percent.

From the preceding month, the PCE price index for May increased 0.1 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.2 percent.

From the same month one year ago, the PCE price index for May increased 2.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.7 percent from one year ago.
emphasis added

The May PCE price index increased 2.3 percent year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.1 percent YoY in April, and down from the recent peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022.
The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 2.7 percent YoY, up from 2.5 percent in April, and down from the recent peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through May 2025 (2017 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income and PCE were below expectations.
Inflation was above expectations.
Using the two-month method to estimate Q2 real PCE growth, real PCE was increasing at a 2.4% annual rate in Q2 2024. (Using the mid-month method, real PCE was increasing at 2.0%).  This suggests moderate PCE growth in Q2.

S&P Futures Trade At All Time High Boosted By Trade Talks, Nike Results

US equity futures are higher, buoyed by the (non) news that the US and China have signed a trade truce (which they first signed three weeks ago but nobody complied with it, so may as well push stocks up on the exact same headline again). The positive mood has also been helped by expectations of Fed rate cuts, a better-than-feared outlook from Nike and equity flow data. As JPM recaps, since yesterday’s close, there have been three major market focuses: (i) Lutnick said that US and China have already signed their trade deal; (ii) Nike’s guidance beats expectation; (iii) the removal of Section 899 yesterday afternoon. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are 0.3% higher and currently trading in record territory after Howard Lutnick indicated the US has plans to reach agreements with 10 major trading partners, while Nasdaq futures continued their panic FOMO meltup, rising another 0.5%, and set to rise every day this week. Pre-Market, Mag 7 are all higher; NKE shares are the outlier surging 10% after earnings. 2y fell -3bp, while 10y added 1bp; USD is higher. Commodities are mixed: Oil added +1.9%, while Ags are mostly lower. US economic data slate includes May personal income and spending (8:30am), June final University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am).

In premarket trading, Mag 7 stocks are higher alongside futures (AMZN +1.2%, Nvidia +0.9%, Meta +0.8%,  Tesla +0.5%, Apple +0.5%, Alphabet +0.4%, Microsoft 0%).

• Amazon (AMZN) leads gains in the Magnificent Seven cohort of US tech stocks, rising 1.2%, after receiving an upgrade from BNP Paribas Exane.
• Atlantic Union Bankshares Corp. shares (AUB) are up 9.3% after the bank said it sold about $2 billion of its performing commercial real estate loans to Blackstone.
• Estee Lauder Cos. (EL) up 2.9% after HSBC raised its recommendation to buy from hold and increased its price target to $99 from $80 as it sees the cosmetics company at the end of a downgrade cycle.
• Li Auto ADRs (LI) drop 2.7% after the Chinese EV maker reduced its vehicle deliveries target for the second quarter, citing a sales system upgrade.
• Nike shares (NKE) rise 10% after forecasting a smaller-than-expected drop in revenue for the current quarter, a sign that the sportswear company’s earnings trend may have hit an inflection point, analysts say.
• WR Berkley Corp. (WRB) edges down 0.7% after a TD Cowen analyst cut its recommendation to hold from buy, citing outperformance following news Mitsui Sumitomo Insurance was buying a 15% equity stake.
• Trade Desk (TTD) gained 3.9% in premarket trading after being upgraded to outperform at Evercore ISI, while Baidu fell 0.8%. 
• CorMedix (CRMD) falls 11% after launching an $85 million share offering via RBC.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that the US and China had finalized an understanding, and added the White House is nearing agreements with 10 major trading partners ahead of a July 9 deadline for reciprocal tariffs. 
Meanwhile, the Treasury Department announced a deal with G-7 allies that will exclude US companies from some taxes imposed by other countries in exchange for removing the “revenge tax” proposal from President Donald Trump’s tax bill.

“There were fears that the revenge tax would make it much harder for companies and individuals to invest in the US, since it would increase their tax rates,” said Kathleen Brooks, research director at Xtb Ltd. “There are still more trade agreements to be done, for example with the European Union, but things are moving in the right direction.”

The Thursday moves were driven by US economic data that supported the case for policy easing. The swaps market has fully priced two further rate reductions this year and increased bets on a third. 

A flurry of Fed officials this week made clear they’ll need a few more months to gain confidence that tariff-driven price hikes won’t raise inflation in a persistent way. Economists see the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy marking the tamest three-month stretch since the pandemic five years ago.

Copper rose as Goldman analysts warned that shortages will get worse before levies come into effect. A key one-day copper price spread surged to the highest level in four years on the London Metal Exchange, placing fresh strains on buyers contending with a rapid decline in inventories fueled by US plans to impose tariffs on the metal.

European stocks also gain with the Stoxx 600 climbing almost 1% and set for its first weekly advance in three. Data Friday showed inflation inched up in France and Spain, but not enough to concern European Central Bank officials who are optimistic that their 2% target will be met sustainably this year. Most sectors are in the green with auto, media and consumer products leading while miners lag. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:

• Adidas, Puma and JD Sports are rising after US giant Nike said its yearlong sales decline is starting to ease, with a smaller sales drop seen in the current quarter than earlier anticipated.
• Schneider Electric shares gain as much as 4.8% after electrical power equipment manufacturer reiterated its full-year guidance on a pre-close analyst call, which Oddo BHF said is “reassuring.”
• Pearson shares rise as much as 3.8% as analysts at BNP Paribas Exane upgraded the education-focused company and flagged a buying opportunity following recent weakness in the share price.
• Knorr-Bremse falls as much as 5.8%, the most since April, as shares in the German maker of brakes for trains and commercial vehicles were downgraded to neutral by both Citi and JPMorgan due to US truck data weakness and FX.
• Babcock shares drop as much as 4.1% after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, on track to cap their best week in nearly two months, helped by positive developments on US-China trade and bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.7% Friday, with Xiaomi providing a boost as the release of its electric SUV saw strong demand. Japanese stocks led gains, with the blue-chip Nikkei 225 topping 40,000. The regional gauge is poised for a weekly gain of more than 3% as risk-on sentiment returns after a cooling of Israel-Iran tensions. Next week’s key focal points include inflation data in South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines as well as a US jobs report. Asean is holding a bond market forum in Kyoto while the ECB holds an annual forum in Portugal.

“Easing tariff concerns, lower geopolitical risks especially in the Middle East, rising hopes of Fed cuts, higher confidence on AI demand” are all contributing to gains in Asian stocks, said Vey-Sern Ling, a managing director at Union Bancaire Privee. “Asia markets are in a good position especially with a potentially weaker dollar,” he said.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat. The Swedish krona is leading gains against the greenback among the G-10’s, rising 0.4%. EURUSD is up a seventh day, longest winning streak in a year; euro is up 1.6% on a weekly basis, the most in a month. GBPUSD up 0.1% at 1.3745; the pair is up 2.2% this week, best performance since early March. USD/JPY little changed at 144.39.

In rates, treasures fall for the first time this week;  Yields are 1bp-3bp cheaper with front-end and belly lagging slightly, flattening 2s10s spread by about 0.5bp, 5s30s by 1.5bp; 10-year near 4.27% is 2bp cheaper on the day, slightly underperforming bunds and gilts in the sector. European government bonds are little changed.

In commodities, oil pared some of the biggest weekly decline in two years after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, with the market’s focus shifting from the conflict in the Middle East to US trade negotiations. Spot copper contracts continued to trade at huge premiums to later-dated futures on the London Metal Exchange, after key price spreads this week hit the highest levels since an historic short squeeze in 2021. Gold falls $40 and below $3,300/oz as demand for haven assets dwindles; the precious metal heads for its second consecutive weekly loss, after a ceasefire between Israel and Iran dented demand for havens. 

Looking to the day ahead, the key release will be today’s May PCE in the US, closely watched following the weaker-than-expected CPI print earlier this month. Other data releases include US personal income, personal spending, June Kansas City Fed services activity, We’ll also get Fed’s Williams, Hammack and Cook speak, ECB’s Rehn speaks

Market snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.2%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.3%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.3%
• Stoxx Europe 600 +0.9%
• DAX +0.8%, CAC 40 +1.4%
• 10-year Treasury yield +3 basis points at 4.27%
• VIX -0.4 points at 16.2
• Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1194.19
• euro little changed at $1.1709
• WTI crude +0.9% at $65.8/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Lutnick said the US will imminently announce trade deals with 10 major trading partners while Trump hinted at an agreement arriving soon with India. BBG
• Equities momentum continuing this morning after the US and China finalized an understanding on trade. The deal includes a commitment from China to deliver rare earths. BBG
• US lawmakers said they would remove Section 899 from the tax bill: Reuters.
• On whether the US Reconcilliation Bill can be sent to President Trump by the July 4th deadline, Punchbowl says that it is possible, but is becoming increasingly difficult; Senators say voting will not being until Saturday at the absolute earliest. "...one key holdout said they’re far from the point when Trump will be needed to help close a deal." Senators say voting will not being until Saturday at the absolute earliest, with that viewed as optimistic. Senate parliamentarian ruling focused on "the provider tax freeze in the bill rather than the Senate’s more drastic constraints for Medicaid expansion states, according to two sources with knowledge of the decision". Republicans believe they can come up with a fix. President Trump has reportedly told multiple GOP senators privately that he prefers the House’s provider tax framework, which is much less drastic than the Senate’s version.
• US DOGE Service has sent staff to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives with the goal of revising or eliminating dozens of rules and gun restrictions by July 4th: WaPo 
• Europe considers a range of concessions to the White House in an effort to strike a trade deal in the near-term, including lowering tariffs on a range of imports, removing certain non-tariff barriers, buying more American products, and taking steps to address concerns about China. WSJ
• A flurry of Federal Reserve officials this week made clear they’ll need a few more months to gain confidence that tariff-driven price hikes won’t raise inflation in a persistent way. After Waller and Bowman’s dovish commentary on lowering rates as soon as July, nearly a dozen policymakers have dumped cold water on that idea since then. BBG
• China’s industrial profits slumped 9.1% in May, the biggest drop since October, under the weight of higher US tariffs and deflationary pressure. The decline adds urgency for more stimulus to meet growth goals. BBG
• Japan’s Tokyo CPI for June cools by more than anticipated, coming in at +3.1% Y/Y on a core basis (down from +3.3% in May and below the Street’s +3.3% forecast). WSJ
• Individual investors in Japan are boosting their purchases of government bonds at the fastest pace in 18 years as a rise in yields enhances the asset’s appeal. BBG
• Goldman forecast that core PCE prices rose 0.18% in May and 2.63% over the last year. Data from the CPI, PPI, and import prices suggest a modest tariff effect and a soft core print this month.  Headline PCE prices rose 0.14% in May and 2.29% over the last year.  GS expects the largest tariff effects on monthly inflation to show up from June through August. GIR
• NKE +9% pre mkt...after mgmt reaffirmed that 4Q will be peak pressure on call keeping turnaround story intact; That overshadows the weaker quarter last night (EPS $0.14 vs bogey of $0.20+). 

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump said he just signed a deal with China on Wednesday, and says he has one maybe coming up with India. Trump added that China is starting to open up. It was later clarified that the US and China have agreed to an additional understanding to implement the Geneva agreement, according to a White House official cited by Fox’s Lawrence. A second Administration official confirmed that the framework finalises what was agreed in London and also addresses Chinese export controls, according to a source familiar with the agreement.
• China issues a statement on trade framework with US; two sides confirmed details on framework China will approve export applications for controlled items in accordance with the law. Both sides maintained close communications after meetings in London. The US side will accordingly lift a series of restrictive measures taken against China.
• European Commission President von der Leyen said the EU received the latest US proposal today and is prepared for both a deal and a no-deal outcome, stating all options remain on the table.
• French President Macron said he favours a speedy and fair EU–US trade deal, but warned that if the US maintains a 10% tariff, Europe would have to apply equivalent compensatory measures.
• US chip export curbs may slow China's adoption of DeepSeek’s next model, R2, via The Information.
• US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said tax bill passage is expected within the next week or two, adding that the China deal was "signed and sealed" two days ago. Lutnick stated that several deals will be announced in the coming week, with the Europe deal expected at the end. He noted that although Europe had a sluggish start, it is now performing excellently and there is optimism about a deal with the EU. Countries seeking further negotiations are welcome, and all nations will be categorised into appropriate tariff groups by the 9 July deadline for reciprocal tariff agreements. He added that the US is close to finalising a deal with India and that the tariff programme will not need to change if the bill is adjusted.
• German Chancellor Merz said von der Leyen proposed the creation of a new European trade organisation, and added that EU leaders are largely united on finalising the Mercosur trade deal.
• Chinese Foreign Ministry says Yi will travel to EU headquarters June 30th for China-EU high-level strategic dialogue; will also visit Germany and France.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mostly firmer for a bulk of the session following gains on Wall Street amid expectations of a future Fed Chair more aligned with the President. Sentiment was further supported after US President Trump announced he had signed a deal with China on Wednesday. Although initial reports were unclear and caused some confusion, White House officials later clarified that the signing finalised what had previously been agreed upon in Geneva and London. China has not yet confirmed the signing of the deal. APAC stocks later waned off best levels to trade mixed. ASX 200 was supported by the broader mood, with the rise in copper keeping miners propped up before paring back. Nikkei 225 outperformed across the region, buoyed by recent JPY weakness and a softer-than-expected Tokyo Core CPI reading, which could temper some of the recent hawkish rhetoric from BoJ’s Tamura. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp opened with modest gains, drawing some support from US President Trump’s announcement of a signed deal with China. It was later clarified the deal finalised prior agreements made in Geneva and London, though China has yet to confirm the signing. Chinese bourses later turned flat.

Top Asian News

• The PBoC injected CNY 525.9bln via 7-day reverse repos, maintaining the rate at 1.40%.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they will continue cautious consideration of potential buybacks of previously issued bonds, according to local Reuters.
• The South Korean government held an emergency meeting on household debt, and plans to strengthen measures to control it, according to the financial regulator.
• Li Auto (2015 HK) expects to deliver circa 108k vehicles in Q2 (vs. May 29th guidance of 123-128k).

European bourses (STOXX 600 +1%) opened with a strong positive bias and continued to trudge higher as the morning progressed – currently trading at session highs. Sentiment over the past couple of days has been boosted by; 1) Thursday’s report that Trump is looking to announce Powell’s replacement early, 2) WSJ reports that the EU is considering lowering tariffs on US imports in a bid to woo US President Trump, 3) von der Leyen suggesting the EU had received the latest US trade proposal – stressing that whilst they are ready for a deal, they have made preparations for no deal. European sectors are entirely in the green. Autos leads, followed by Consumer Products as the likes of Adidas (+4%) and Puma (+5%) benefit from Nike's post-earning strength.

Top European News

• ECB's Knot, when asked about market expectations of one more 25bps cut by the end of the year, Knot said that possibility was “difficult for me to exclude”, via FT.
• German minimum wage to increase to EUR 14.60/hr by 2027; will take place via two steps from current level of EUR 12.82.
• ECB's de Guindos says the ECB is on track to meet its 2% inflation target

FX

• DXY has extended its losing streak to a fifth session as a combination of geopolitical tensions easing, declining yields, concerns over Fed independence and ongoing fiscal concerns act as a drag on the greenback. Over the past 24 hours, the trade agenda has reasserted itself on the market narrative after US President Trump said he signed a deal with China on Wednesday; it was later clarified that the US and China have agreed to an additional understanding to implement the Geneva agreement. DXY is currently contained within Thursday's 96.99-97.60 range, into US PCE and a couple of Fed speakers.
• EUR is firmer vs. the USD amid some encouragement on the trade front for the EU. This comes after the WSJ reported that the EU is reportedly considering lowering tariffs on US imports in a bid to woo US President Trump. Furthermore, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick said that although Europe had a sluggish start, it is now performing excellently and there is optimism about a deal with the EU. That being said, European Commission President von der Leyen said the EU is prepared for both a deal and a no-deal outcome, stating all options remain on the table. EUR/USD currently trading around 1.1715.
• JPY is still struggling to make much headway vs. the USD relative to other peers with Japanese data overnight acting as a headwind for the Yen. National inflation data for June came in soft on a headline and core basis (retail sales were also weak). USD/JPY is currently tucked within Thursday's 143.75-145.26 range and sat just above its 50DMA at 144.32.
• GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD and steady on a 1.37 handle. It has been a week lacking in fresh macro drivers for the UK and that remains the case. There has been some attention on the political scene with UK PM Starmer facing a possible rebellion from his own MPs over proposed welfare cuts. Cable is currently tucked below Thursday's multi-year high at 1.3770.
• Antipodeans are both marginally stronger vs. the USD alongside the positive risk tone and subsequently shrugging off a contraction in Chinese Industrial Profits. Both currencies are also likely being underpinned by the aforementioned developments between the US and China on the trade front. Albeit, details remain light at this stage.

Fixed Income

• A contained/slightly softer start to the day for USTs. Benchmark pulling back from Thursday’s 112-03 MTD high, but only marginally with the current trough at 111-26+, comfortably clear of Thursday’s 111-21 base. Focus overnight has been on the latest US-China framework agreement, but essentially just firming the prior Geneva/London talks. Focus today now turns to US PCE and a couple of Fed speakers.
• Bunds are in-fitting with the above. Under modest pressure in the European morning into the region's first inflation figures for June. Before those, no reaction to ECB’s Knot who said to the FT that the possibility of a 25bps cut by end-2025 was "difficult for me to exclude”. To recap those HICP metrics, French figures were hotter-than-expected across the board sparking a modest hawkish reaction. Specifically, this sent Bunds down from near the 130.66 high to around 130.44. Spanish figures were a little more mixed, but also held a hawkish skew, taking Bunds to a fresh low of 130.20.
• Gilts opened higher by a few ticks and then extended a handful more to 93.36, catching up to the late-Thursday performance for USTs/Bunds, before conforming to the broader bias and slipping slightly. However, action has been minimal with Gilts comfortably above the 93.00 mark and shy of today and Thursday’s open at 93.32.
• Italy sells EUR 6.5bln vs exp. EUR 5.5-6.5bln 2.70% 2030, 2.95% 2030 & 3.60% 2035 BTP and EUR vs exp. EUR 1.5-2.0bln 2034 CCTeu.

Commodities

• Crude is on a firmer footing today, in what has been a session lacking of pertinent geopolitical updates; more focus on US-China / US-EU trade updates, but details are light at the moment. Price action has been relatively steady throughout the morning, awaiting US PCE later. Brent Aug'25 currently trading around USD 67.20/bbl.
• Spot gold trades with a downward bias, and fails to benefit from the slightly softer Dollar and seemingly continuing to be weighed upon by the relatively calm in the Middle East; currently sits below USD 3.3k/oz.
• 3M LME Copper is unable to benefit from the risk tone. However, while softer, 3M LME Copper is holding onto essentially all of the upside it derived on Monday when it rose by near USD 200 to a USD 9.91k peak. As it stands, the base metal has slipped just below the USD 9.9k mark, but remains on track to close out the week with strong gains after opening it at USD 9.65k.
• The US Energy Department announced that scheduled oil deliveries into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will be delayed until December, due to maintenance at SPR sites. Of the 15.8mln barrels originally planned through May, only 8.8mln have been delivered so far.
• Goldman Sachs said Brent crude could reach USD 90/bbl by year-end in a Strait of Hormuz disruption scenario, while options markets see a 60% chance Brent stays in the USD 60s in 3 months and a 28% chance it exceeds USD 70.
• Shanghai Warehouse Stocks: Copper -19.26k/T (prev. -1.1k).

Geopolitics

• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said Tehran is assessing whether diplomacy with the US is in its interest, adding that there is currently no understanding for renewed talks with the US. Araqchi dismissed speculation about the resumption of negotiations with the US, saying it should not be taken seriously. There are no plans to receive IAEA Chief Grossi in Tehran, according to Reuters.
• Iran’s representative to the UN said Tehran is open to forming a regional nuclear consortium and exchanging uranium in the event of an agreement with Washington, via Sky News Arabia.
• An explosion occurred at the “Aluf” plant within a complex belonging to the Iranian defence industries in the Republic of Azerbaijan, according to Al Hadath.
• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu agreed with US President Trump to end the Gaza war within two weeks, according to Al Arabiya citing Israeli press.
• Israeli Defence Minister warned of further strikes on Iran if it resumes nuclear development, according to Al Arabiya.
• EU leaders agreed to renew existing Russia sanctions for another six months, according to Reuters

US Event Calendar

• 8:30am: U.S. Personal Income, May, est. 0.3%, prior 0.8%
• 8:30am: U.S. Personal Spending, May, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
• 8:30am: U.S. Core PCE Price Index MoM, May, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
• 8:30am: U.S. Core PCE Price Index YoY, May, est. 2.6%, prior 2.5%
• 8:30am: U.S. PCE Price Index MoM, May, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
• 8:30am: U.S. PCE Price Index YoY, May, est. 2.3%, prior 2.1%
• 10am: U.S. U. of Mich. Sentiment, June F, est. 60.5, prior 60.5

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

A rare period of 2025 calm seems to have broken out for now. It may be that we're in the eye of the storm that was the Middle East, and later to become tariffs again. However for now markets are not thinking about, or are not particularly concerned about, the upcoming July 9th tariff deadline. However after the bell we got some more positive headlines on trade which we'll detail below. However, even before that, US markets steamed ahead with the first S&P 500 (+0.80%) closing just shy of a new all-time high as investors have again begun to anticipate further rate cuts this year. The optimism for lower borrowing costs in the near term was helped by Tuesday night’s news that Trump is considering naming his pick for the Fed’s next chair early. Even as the White House yesterday suggested that such a nomination was not "imminent", markets are getting themselves used to the prospect over lower rates going forward. Whether this will prove to be yet another false dawn only time will tell. 

Being precise, the S&P ended the day a mere 0.05% below its record high on February 19, briefly surpassing that level late in yesterday’s session. Tech stocks outperformed, with the Nasdaq Composite (+0.97%) closing an even smaller 0.03% from its December high, while the Magnificent 7 rose +1.06%. In Big Tech, Meta shares rose the most (+2.46%) after the company won a landmark copyright lawsuit over AI training on books, and Nvidia’s continued to extend its gains (+0.46%) from its record high the previous day which was the first since early January. The upbeat mood also saw the VIX (-0.17pts to 16.59) inch down to a 4-month low. Treasury yields fell across the curve as investors continued to increase their bets for further rate cuts this year (65bps by December and now 28bps in September). This led to the 2yr falling -6.3bps and the 10yr falling -5.0bps, with both down to their lowest levels since the start of May.

The continued positive momentum in equities was impressive. We seem to be in a sweet spot post Middle Eastern calm and pre the July 9th reciprocal tariff extension deadline. This will start to come into view soon, and headlines are starting to bubble up. Lutnick last night said that an agreement with China has now been agreed and that imminent plans have been made to agree deals with ten of its major trading partners. It's not clear if this includes the EU and trade was clearly a key subject at the EU leaders’ summit that concluded last night. European Commission President von der Leyen revealed that the EU was assessing the latest counter-offer proposed by the US, saying “We are ready for a deal. At the same time we are preparing for the possibility that no satisfactory agreement is reached”. There have been some tensions over the EU’s approach to the talks, with Germany’s Chancellor Merz earlier calling the Commission’s negotiating strategy “far too complicated” as he favoured a “quick and simple” deal. Meanwhile, France’s Macron said last night that he would settle for 10% tariffs from the US but that this would result in the same levy being applied to US goods. So some event risk to watch out for over the next couple of weeks.

We are also waiting to see if the US administration will pass its budget megabill as they hope by the July 4th holiday. Senate Republicans have been aiming to vote on the bill this week but that timing looks uncertain, with the latest issue being a technical hurdle that some of the proposed Medicaid changes do not meet the strict rules of the reconciliation process that allows to approve budget policies with a simple majority in the Senate. So that could force meaningful last minute changes. One to monitor going into the weekend. There is good news that late last night we found out that the US Treasury Department has asked the Senate and the House to remove Section 899 (aka the "revenge tax") from the bill after a deal was struck with G7 leaders to exempt US companies from some taxes. Given how much email traffic there's been in my inbox on this topic, it's fair to say global investors will breathe a sigh of relief on this news. 

Moving to the US data, we saw slightly lower weekly initial jobless claims (falling from 243k to 236k vs. 243k estimates) but higher continuing claims (+1,974k vs +1,950k estimates). US May goods exports also fell -5.2% m/m, while revised estimates for Q1 GDP showed the economy contracted by -0.5% (vs. previous -0.2% estimates). That included worse-than-expected consumption, which grew by +0.5% annualized (vs. +1.2% prev.), its slowest quarterly pace since the 2020 pandemic shock. However, May durable goods data was strong at +16.4% vs +8.5% estimates due to bumper aircraft orders, but even ex-transport it came in half a percent higher than expected at +0.5%. 

Fedspeak struck a mostly patient tone, with Richmond Fed Barkin’s saying that he does “believe we will see pressure on prices”, SF Fed’s Daly expected that “we would begin to be able to adjust the rates in the fall”, while Boston Fed’s Collins expected at least one cut this year but indicated that July would be too early.

The dollar index (-0.54%) continued to fall further on Thursday as tensions in the Middle East receded and earlier reports that Trump will soon pick a more dovish Fed chair continued to resonate. The EUR/USD rose +0.36% to 1.1701, yesterday, perhaps also helped by Europe’s pledge for higher defence spending and the more front-loaded German fiscal spending than expected announced earlier this week.

In Europe, defence stocks were higher on the back of the NATO Summit, where defence spending targets were raised to 5% by 2035. The DAX jumped (+0.64%), lifted by German defence companies like Rheinmetall (+7.28%), Hensoldt (+5.19%) and Renk (+3.87%) which are expected to continue benefiting from the increased defence pledge. 

On a related theme, things are looking much better for Germany at the moment. Our German economists have lifted their growth forecasts to 0.5% for 2025 and 2% for 2026, well above consensus, believing the government’s fresh budget plans as well as the good momentum so far this year warrant a more positive outlook. You can read it here. Outside of Germany, other indices like the FTSE 100 (+0.19%), STOXX 600 (+0.09%), and CAC (-0.01%) posted more modest moves.

As in the US, European bond yields also moved lower despite more fiscal optimism in Europe, with 10yr gilts (-0.9bps), OATs (-1.1bs) and BTPs (-2.5bps) falling. But 10yr bunds underperformed for a fifth day running (+0.3bps) and its 30-year bond inched even higher (+1.8bps).

On geopolitics, yesterday Iran’s Supreme Leader said that the US strikes on Iran “did not achieve anything” and that Iran would retaliate should the US attack again. There was also a report from the FT that said European officials received intel that Iran had moved its uranium before the strikes, although at a press conference later that day, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth refuted this saying that nothing was moved out of Iran’s nuclear facility. Oil prices saw muted moves, with Brent crude up +0.07% to $67.73/bbl.

Asian equity markets are seeing a few divergent trends this morning. The Nikkei (+1.59%) is outperforming jumping to its highest level since late January, boosted by tech stocks and helped by lower inflation (see below). Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (-0.01%), the CSI (-0.02%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.02%) are struggling to find direction with the KOSPI (-1.15%) experiencing noticeable losses in early trading. Outside of Asia, US equity futures are suggesting a positive opening with those on the S&P 500 (+0.13%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.14%) edging higher. Meanwhile, yields on the 10yr USTs are +1.5bps higher trading at 4.26% as we go to press.

Early morning data indicated that Tokyo’s consumer price index (+3.1% y/y) increased less than anticipated in June, down from a +3.4% rise observed in the previous month, thereby raising questions about the BOJ’s capacity to hike in July. Tokyo’s core CPI decreased to +3.1% y/y in June from +3.3% in the prior month. In a separate report, Japan’s unemployment rate remained steady at 2.5% in May for the third month in a row, aligning with market forecasts. Meanwhile, retail sales in Japan rose by +2.2% y/y in May 2025, a decline from an upwardly adjusted +3.5% increase the previous month and falling short of market expectations of +2.5% growth. This represents the 38th consecutive month of retail sales growth, albeit at the slowest rate since February.

Elsewhere, China’s industrial firms reported their most significant profit decline since October, highlighting the challenges faced by an economy affected by increased US tariffs and ongoing deflationary pressures. Industrial profits decreased by -9.1% last month compared to the same period last year. The May figures reversed a slight gain earlier this year, bringing the decline over the first five months to -1.1%.

To the day ahead now, the key release will be today’s May PCE in the US, closely watched following the weaker-than-expected CPI print earlier this month. Our US economist forecast MoM growth in core PCE in May at +0.14% (+0.1% in April), with personal income growing at +0.2% (+0.8%) and consumption at +0.3% (+0.2%). In Europe, preliminary June CPI readings are due in France and Spain, with the rest of the key prints due the week after. Their forecasts are 2.0% for the Eurozone-wide HICP print, with country level estimates at 2.26% for Germany, 0.68% for France, 1.86% for Italy and 2.07% for Spain.

Other data releases include US personal income, personal spending, June Kansas City Fed services activity, France May PPI, consumer spending, Italy June consumer confidence index, economic sentiment, manufacturing confidence, May PPI, April industrial sales, Eurozone June economic confidence, Canada April GDP. We’ll also get Fed’s Williams, Hammack and Cook speak, ECB’s Rehn speaks

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 08:28

Clariti 1 Day Multifocal Contact Lenses are designed for patients with presbyopia‚ offering all-day comfort and ease of fitting. CooperVision’s innovation ensures sharp vision at all distances.

Overview of Clariti 1 Day Multifocal 3 Add Lenses

Clariti 1 Day Multifocal 3 Add lenses are specifically designed for patients with presbyopia‚ offering a convenient daily disposable option. These lenses feature a unique 3 Add power‚ ensuring optimal vision at near‚ intermediate‚ and far distances. The innovative design incorporates CooperVision’s Binocular Progressive System‚ which enhances visual clarity and reduces adaptation time. With their Optimized Comfort Edge‚ the lenses provide exceptional all-day comfort‚ making them ideal for active lifestyles. The streamlined fitting process‚ supported by the OptiExpert app‚ minimizes chair time‚ making these lenses a practical choice for both new and experienced wearers. Designed to address the needs of patients seeking sharp vision and comfort‚ Clariti 1 Day Multifocal 3 Add lenses are a reliable solution for individuals managing presbyopia.

Innovations Behind the Design

Clariti 1 Day Multifocal 3 Add lenses feature CooperVision’s Binocular Progressive System and Optimized Comfort Edge‚ enhancing visual clarity and comfort for everyday wear.

Binocular Progressive System

The Binocular Progressive System in Clariti 1 Day Multifocal 3 Add lenses is designed to work in harmony with the natural focusing ability of the eyes. This innovative approach ensures clear vision at all distances—near‚ intermediate‚ and far—by coordinating the lenses’ power progression between the two eyes. It mimics the natural way the eyes work together‚ reducing adaptation time for patients. The system is particularly beneficial for presbyopic patients‚ providing seamless transitions between tasks like reading‚ computer use‚ and distant viewing. Clinical studies have shown high patient satisfaction with this design‚ as it minimizes visual disturbances and enhances overall clarity. The Binocular Progressive System is a key feature that sets these lenses apart‚ offering a more natural and intuitive multifocal experience.

Optimized Comfort Edge TM

The Optimized Comfort Edge TM in Clariti 1 Day Multifocal 3 Add lenses is designed to enhance wearer comfort throughout the day. This unique edge design ensures a smooth transition between the lens and the eye‚ reducing irritation and discomfort. By minimizing mechanical stress on the eyelids‚ it provides a more natural wearing experience. The design also helps maintain moisture‚ preventing dryness and keeping the eyes comfortable‚ even during extended wear. This feature is particularly beneficial for patients new to multifocal lenses or those with sensitive eyes. The combination of comfort and optical clarity makes these lenses an excellent choice for daily use‚ addressing both visual and comfort needs effectively.

Fitting Process and Ease of Use

The fitting process for Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses is streamlined‚ with minimal chair time‚ ensuring an efficient and patient-friendly experience for practitioners and wearers alike.

OptiExpert App for Streamlined Fitting

The OptiExpert App is a revolutionary tool designed to simplify the fitting process of Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses. Developed by CooperVision‚ it minimizes chair time by streamlining multifocal fittings through a user-friendly interface. The app provides a systematic approach to lens selection‚ reducing the complexity often associated with multifocal fittings. By leveraging data from the Centre for Ocular Research and Education‚ OptiExpert ensures accurate and efficient fitting‚ benefiting both practitioners and patients. Its innovative design integrates seamlessly with the Clariti 1 Day Multifocal 3 Add lenses‚ offering a step-by-step guide that enhances precision and patient satisfaction. This app is a game-changer‚ making multifocal lens fittings faster and more straightforward than ever before.

Minimizing Chair Time for Multifocal Fittings

The Clariti 1 Day Multifocal fitting process is designed to minimize chair time‚ ensuring efficiency without compromising accuracy. On average‚ multifocal fittings take only 5 minutes longer than spherical lens fittings‚ making it a practical solution for busy practices. The streamlined process is supported by tools like the OptiExpert app‚ which simplifies lens selection and reduces complexity. By leveraging a systematic approach‚ practitioners can quickly determine the correct add power and ensure optimal patient outcomes. This efficiency not only saves time but also enhances patient satisfaction‚ as fittings are completed swiftly and accurately. The combination of advanced technology and user-friendly design makes Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses a time-effective option for presbyopic patients seeking convenient and comfortable vision correction.

Clinical Performance and Benefits

Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses deliver exceptional clinical performance‚ offering improved vision at all distances and high patient satisfaction with comfort and clarity‚ ideal for presbyopic patients.

Improved Vision at All Distances

Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses provide sharp‚ clear vision at near‚ intermediate‚ and far distances‚ addressing the challenges of presbyopia effectively. The advanced design ensures seamless transitions between focal points‚ minimizing visual disturbances. Patients experience consistent visual acuity across all distances‚ making daily activities like reading‚ driving‚ or using digital devices effortless. The lenses’ innovative optics are tailored to meet the diverse needs of presbyopic individuals‚ offering a natural viewing experience. Clinical studies highlight high patient satisfaction with the clarity and comfort provided by these lenses‚ making them an excellent choice for those seeking reliable‚ all-day vision correction.

High Patient Satisfaction with Comfort

Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses are highly regarded for their exceptional comfort‚ leading to high patient satisfaction. The Optimized Comfort Edge design ensures a smooth‚ irritation-free wearing experience‚ while the breathable material retains moisture‚ keeping eyes comfortable throughout the day. Patients appreciate the convenience of daily disposable lenses‚ which maintain hygiene and reduce maintenance. Clinical studies indicate that wearers experience minimal dryness and discomfort‚ making these lenses ideal for extended use. The combination of innovative design and material quality contributes to a positive wearing experience‚ allowing patients to enjoy both comfort and clear vision without compromise.

Step-by-Step Fitting Guide

The Clariti 1 Day Multifocal fitting process is straightforward‚ starting with refraction and sensory eye dominance determination. Convert the prescription to spherical equivalent‚ select trial lenses‚ and monitor progress for optimal results.

Step 1: Refraction and Sensory Eye Dominance

Begin by performing a precise refraction to determine the patient’s current prescription. This step ensures accurate lens selection for optimal visual correction. Next‚ assess sensory eye dominance using the fogging technique‚ where one eye is temporarily blurred to identify which eye the patient relies on more. This determination is crucial for assigning the correct add power during the fitting process‚ typically starting with the dominant eye. Proper refraction and dominance assessment lay the foundation for a successful multifocal fitting‚ ensuring the lenses are tailored to the patient’s specific needs and preferences. These initial steps are vital for achieving clear vision at all distances and maximizing patient satisfaction with Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses.

Step 2: Converting to Spherical Equivalent (SE) CL Rx

After completing the refraction‚ convert the patient’s prescription to a spherical equivalent (SE) contact lens prescription. This step is essential for ensuring accurate lens selection and proper fitting. The SE calculation simplifies the prescription by combining the sphere and cylinder into a single power‚ making it easier to determine the appropriate multifocal lens parameters. For example‚ if the prescription is -2.00 -1.00 × 180°‚ the SE would be -3.00. This conversion ensures that the add power for near vision is correctly assigned based on the patient’s needs. Accurate SE calculation is critical for achieving optimal visual acuity at all distances and minimizing adaptation issues. Proper conversion also helps streamline the fitting process‚ reducing chair time and improving patient outcomes with Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses.

Step 3: Initial Trial Lens Selection

Once the spherical equivalent (SE) prescription is determined‚ the next step is selecting the initial trial lenses. Start by using the low add power in the dominant eye‚ as this helps minimize adaptation issues. For the non-dominant eye‚ select the appropriate add power based on the patient’s needs and the SE calculation. This approach ensures balanced vision at all distances. The trial lens selection is crucial for achieving optimal visual acuity and comfort. Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses offer a range of add powers‚ making it easier to customize the fit. Proper selection at this stage streamlines the fitting process and reduces the need for multiple adjustments. This step is vital for ensuring patient satisfaction and successful adaptation to multifocal lenses.

Patient Considerations

Consider the patient’s age‚ lifestyle‚ and daily needs. Proper handling and care are essential for comfort and longevity. Focus on addressing presbyopia and ensuring adaptability to multifocal lenses.

Age and Presbyopia

Age plays a critical role in determining suitability for Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses‚ as presbyopia typically affects individuals over 40. These lenses are specifically designed to address the vision challenges associated with aging eyes‚ providing clear vision at all distances. CooperVision’s innovative design ensures that patients with presbyopia can enjoy sharp‚ comfortable vision throughout the day. The lenses adapt well to the needs of older patients‚ offering a seamless transition between near‚ intermediate‚ and far vision. Proper fitting and consideration of the patient’s age-related visual needs are essential for optimal performance. Handling and care tips should also be tailored to the patient’s dexterity and lifestyle to ensure long-term satisfaction and comfort.

Lifestyle and Daily Needs

Lifestyle and daily activities significantly influence the suitability of Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses for patients. Individuals with active lifestyles‚ such as those who work outdoors or engage in hobbies requiring sharp vision at various distances‚ benefit greatly from these lenses. The design caters to modern routines‚ ensuring comfort and clarity whether reading‚ driving‚ or using digital devices. Patients who value convenience and hygiene prefer the daily disposable feature‚ eliminating the need for maintenance. The lenses’ ease of handling and minimal chair time during fittings make them ideal for busy individuals seeking efficient solutions. By addressing both near and far vision needs‚ Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses align with the demands of dynamic lifestyles‚ providing all-day comfort and optical performance tailored to everyday activities.

Handling and Care Tips

Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses are designed for ease of use‚ but proper handling and care are essential for optimal performance and eye health. Always wash hands before handling lenses to prevent contamination. Handle one lens at a time to avoid mix-ups‚ and ensure the correct orientation before insertion. Use the solution provided or a sterile saline rinse to moisten the lens‚ but avoid tap water. Replace lenses daily as directed‚ and never reuse or share lenses. Store lenses in the original packaging when not in use‚ and dispose of them after the recommended wear period. Proper handling and care ensure comfort‚ clarity‚ and hygiene‚ maximizing the benefits of Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses for patients with presbyopia.

Follow-Up and Monitoring

Regular follow-ups are crucial to ensure optimal performance and comfort. Use the OptiExpert app to monitor fit and address any issues promptly‚ maintaining clarity and comfort.

Importance of Post-Fitting Exams

Post-fitting exams are essential to ensure the lenses are performing optimally and comfortably. They allow practitioners to assess lens centration‚ movement‚ and overall fit. Regular follow-ups help verify that the patient’s vision remains clear at all distances and that comfort levels are maintained. These exams also provide an opportunity to address any issues promptly‚ such as discomfort or vision fluctuations. Using tools like the OptiExpert app‚ practitioners can monitor fit and make necessary adjustments. Early identification of potential issues ensures long-term satisfaction and proper adaptation to the lenses. Post-fitting exams are crucial for maintaining patient comfort and visual acuity‚ ensuring the full benefits of Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses are realized.

Addressing Patient Feedback and Adjustments

Patient feedback is crucial for fine-tuning the fit and performance of Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses. Practitioners should listen to concerns about vision clarity‚ comfort‚ or lens handling. Adjustments may involve modifying add powers‚ refining the prescription‚ or ensuring proper lens centration. Digital tools like the OptiExpert app can help monitor fit and guide adjustments. Addressing issues promptly ensures patient satisfaction and optimal lens performance. Comfort-related feedback often leads to exploring handling techniques or care routines. Regular follow-ups allow for proactive adjustments‚ ensuring the lenses meet the patient’s evolving needs. Open communication between the patient and practitioner is key to achieving the best possible outcome with Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses.

Key Benefits and Conclusion

Clariti 1 Day Multifocal Contact Lenses offer exceptional all-day comfort‚ ease of fitting‚ and sharp vision at all distances‚ making them an ideal choice for presbyopia patients. With innovative features like the Binocular Progressive System and Optimized Comfort Edge‚ these lenses provide seamless performance. The streamlined fitting process‚ supported by tools like the OptiExpert app‚ ensures minimal chair time and high patient satisfaction. Their affordability and adaptability to various lifestyles further enhance their appeal. CooperVision’s commitment to innovation and patient-centric design makes Clariti 1 Day Multifocal lenses a standout option for practitioners and patients alike‚ addressing both visual and comfort needs effectively.

The post clariti 1 day multifocal fitting guide appeared first on Every Task, Every Guide: The Instruction Portal
.

Who Counts? Trump Poised To Try To Remove Noncitizens From Census

Authored by Bejamin Weingarten via RealClearInvestigations,

Following a years-long surge in illegal immigration, the Trump administration is poised to challenge a longstanding but legally fraught practice: counting illegal aliens in the U.S. census.

President Trump tried to end the practice during his first term, but President Biden overturned his predecessor’s policy before it was implemented. Now, buoyed by red state attorneys general and Republican legislators, the second Trump administration is determined “to clean up the census and make sure that illegal aliens are not counted,” White House Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy Stephen Miller said last month. 

What Miller didn’t mention are the political implications of the administration’s move. It could have significant political implications because the census count is used to apportion House seats, determine the number of votes each state gets in the Electoral College for selecting the president, and drive the flow of trillions of dollars in government funds. 

Some immigration researchers project that including noncitizens in the census count disproportionately benefits Democratic states with large illegal alien populations. A recent study counters that, based on 2020 census figures, there would have been a negligible shift to the political map had the U.S. government excluded noncitizens from that count. But looking backward, those researchers found, red states would have benefited under the administration’s desired census counting shift. Had authorities excluded such migrants from the 2010 census, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and North Carolina all would have gained one seat in the House, while California would have lost three seats, and Texas and Florida would have each lost one seat – with the total number of Electoral College votes allotted each state changing accordingly.

Since the first census in 1790, the nation has counted not only citizens but also residents to determine such representation. In addition to citing its long history, defenders of the practice say it is only fair that states should be given the power and resources to represent and serve everyone within their borders.

Critics contend the government’s powers come from “We the people” – citizens or eligible voters – a government established before tens of millions of migrants resided in the country illegally. They also say the practice dilutes the representation of American citizens while incentivizing localities to promote illegal immigration.

Trump’s first term hints at what is to come if his administration vigorously pursues a citizen-centric census policy. In July 2020, when the president issued a memorandum to exclude illegal migrants from the census, blue states and immigration groups challenged it in court almost immediately. 

Those challenges rose all the way to the Supreme Court. But it did not rule on the merits – whether all residents must be counted and if the president has the authority to exclude nonresidents – setting the stage for a battle over immigration and presidential power.

The Meaning of the 14th Amendment

The census issue hinges on the Constitution’s language, which calls for apportioning House seats among the states “according to their respective Numbers.” Those “Numbers” originally included “free Persons” and “three-fifths of all other Persons” – namely slaves, a result of the states’ compromise. The framers excluded “Indians not taxed” – Native Americans who were members of sovereign tribal nations, not citizens – from the count. 

After the Civil War, Congress passed the 14th Amendment to recognize the rights of the formerly enslaved. It states that congressional representation “shall be apportioned among the several States according to their respective numbers, counting the whole number of persons in each State,” again excluding Indians not taxed. Under the Indian Citizenship Act of 1924, this population would be granted citizenship.

Congress tasked the secretary of commerce with carrying out the census “in such form and content as he may determine.” The president receives that data, is responsible for carrying out the apportionment calculations, and transmits the information to Congress. 

Echoing arguments against birthright citizenship, critics on the right say that the 14th Amendment aimed to address the status of former slaves, not masses of illegal migrants. They assert that including this population in the census artificially skews political power, effectively disenfranchises citizens, and incentivizes states to adopt sanctuary policies protecting people here illegally. 

“…[R]espect for the law and protection of the integrity of the democratic process warrant the exclusion of illegal aliens from the apportionment base, to the extent feasible and to the maximum extent of the President’s discretion under the law,” President Trump wrote in the 2020 memorandum.

The first Trump administration argued that the “persons in each State” that the 14th Amendment refers to had long been interpreted to mean “inhabitants.” Inhabitants, it asserted, do not include “every individual physically present within a State’s boundaries at the time of the census,” noting that past administrations had excluded temporary aliens and foreign diplomatic personnel for apportionment. 

The administration also argued that the Constitution and relevant law authorize the executive branch to determine who is to be counted as an inhabitant in the census. The president, therefore, had discretion to omit “persons with debatable ties to a State,” like “aliens living within a jurisdiction without the sovereign’s permission to settle there.” 

The administration pointed to Franklin v. Massachusetts to support its claims. There, the Supreme Court held that the President George H.W. Bush administration could include Defense Department employees deployed overseas in the census. Then, the Court found that the president’s duties in the census process are not solely “ceremonial or ministerial,” and that federal law “does not curtail the President’s authority to direct the [Commerce] Secretary in making policy judgments that result in ‘the decennial census.’”

In testimony at the Democrat-led July 2020 House Oversight Committee hearing on the Trump memorandum, Republicans tabbed the head of the Claremont Institute’s Center for Constitutional Jurisprudence, John Eastman, to defend it. The conservative legal scholar, much-maligned by the left for the counsel he provided President Trump regarding challenging the 2020 election, recently told RealClearInvestigations that the Declaration of Independence’s “consent principle” – the concept that government derives its power from the American people – “compels that only citizens be counted for purposes of reapportionment,” and that the principle “is actually codified in the Constitution by excluding ‘Indians not taxed.’” In Eastman’s view, that language signifies that the founders sought to omit “those who are not part of our political community, from the apportionment for representation.”

“President Trump would be on solid ground, therefore, were he to direct that the census either not count illegal aliens at all, or at the very least record citizenship status so that a proper apportionment of citizens could be conducted,” Eastman said.

The plaintiffs challenging the Trump administration contended that the 14th Amendment’s “persons” includes all residents irrespective of their immigration status; that the president lacked the discretion to deem otherwise; and that the process the administration had put in place to exclude illegal aliens was legally deficient. The president had issued a July 2019 directive in advance of his memo instructing the Census Bureau to collect citizenship data from various federal agencies, which would have been used to exclude illegal aliens from the apportionment count, raising additional legal questions. 

Testifying opposite Eastman at the committee hearing, former Census Bureau directors warned that the president’s memo would spook potential respondents and suggested the memo would minimally create the appearance of politicizing the census.

Trump’s action reflected an “illegal desire of only counting citizens,” said Vincent Barabba, former Census Bureau director under the Nixon, Ford, and Carter administrations. “[H]is real objective…is to make sure less people will be counted in states with large minority populations which did not support President Trump or the positions he has taken.”

When litigation over the Trump census policy reached the Supreme Court, it punted. In December 2020, the justices held by a 6-3 margin in Trump v. New York that the plaintiffs lacked standing, and that the case was not ripe for adjudication – with Justices Steven Breyer, Sonia Sotomayor, and Elena Kagan dissenting.

Upon taking office, President Biden issued a first-day executive order revoking both of Trump’s policies. Excluding people based on their immigration status “conflict[s] with the principle of equal representation enshrined in our Constitution, census statutes, and historical tradition,” Biden wrote. “Reapportionment shall be based on the total number of persons residing in the several States, without regard for immigration status.”

States Provide a Backup Plan

The first Trump administration lost a related case at the Supreme Court. In 2018, the administration reinstated a question on the decennial survey about the citizenship status of respondents – a move that likewise came under furious legal challenge.

The Commerce Department stated that it reinstated the question at the behest of the Justice Department, which was seeking superior data on voting-age citizens necessary to enforce the Voting Rights Act. Critics sued the administration, saying that including the question, which administrations had dropped after 1960, would chill immigrant respondents, leading to an unconstitutional undercount.

In June 2019, the justices found that while reinstating such a question was legal, the process by which the president sought to do so was invalid, since the Commerce Department’s rationale for including it was “contrived” and “pretextual” – in violation of the Administrative Procedure Act.

If the second Trump administration fails to win court approval of its expected effort to exclude illegal migrants, this time around, it will have backup. 

Three days before Trump’s second inauguration, Louisiana, Kansas, Ohio, and West Virginia sued the Commerce Department, arguing that its prevailing practice of counting foreigners including illegal aliens at their place of “‘usual residence…’ robb[ed] the people of the Plaintiff States of their rightful share of political representation, while systematically redistributing political power to states with high numbers of illegal aliens and nonimmigrant aliens.”

They want the federal court, among other things, to vacate this “Residence Rule” to the extent it requires the Census Bureau to “include illegal aliens and nonimmigrant aliens in the apportionment base.” And they want to require the Census Bureau to include questions on the survey about citizenship, including one to determine whether non-citizen respondents are lawful permanent residents.

In March, the federal court stayed the case at the Trump administration’s request. The administration said it needed time “to determine its approach to the Residence Rule.” The White House and states plan to provide a joint status update on July 1.

The Justice and Commerce Departments did not respond to RCI’s requests for comment.

Republicans Seek a Legislative Fix

In the interim, Congress has acted. During the last session, Republican members introduced the Equal Representation Act, requiring the census to include a citizenship question and exclude all non-citizens from the census count for apportionment.

Democrats panned the bill, with the then-ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, Jamie Raskin, writing in a minority report that “The plain reading of the [constitutional] text is clear as day, and the original purposes have been carefully articulated and never rebutted. For those who like to follow precedent, every apportionment since 1790 has included every single person residing in the United States, not just those lucky enough to have been given the right to vote.”

In 2016, the Supreme Court held that a state or locality may draw legislative districts based on total population, irrespective of the fact that some districts may have significantly larger voter-eligible populations than others. 

Writing for the majority, the late Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg said that “we need not and do not resolve whether…States may draw districts to equalize voter-eligible population rather than total population.”

Fifty years prior, the Court held that Hawaii could use a registered-voter population base for its apportionment of state legislative seats due to the “large concentrations of military and other transients” in key population center Oahu.

In May 2024, the House passed the Equal Representation Act on a largely party-line vote, but it failed to advance in the Senate.

The current House reintroduced the bill by North Carolina Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards. He told RealClearInvestigations that “Americans deserve fair and equal representation, something that will not be possible until we eliminate the influence of noncitizens in our elections.”

The bill must first move through the Oversight Committee, chaired by Kentucky GOP Rep. James Comer. He told RCI that “American citizens’ representation in Congress should not be determined by individuals who are not citizens of the United States.” 

Comer said his committee plans to move the bill again during this congressional session.

The states suing the Commerce Department are adamant that their view should prevail irrespective of legislative action.

Christopher Hajec, Director of Litigation at the Immigration Reform Law Institute – a legal nonprofit opposed to “unchecked mass migration” that is representing Kansas in the pending states’ suit – told RCI that “Whatever Congress does or does not do, our position is that the Constitution implies that illegal aliens should not be counted in the census for apportionment.”

Tyler Durden Fri, 06/27/2025 - 08:05

“Rural_Hospitals_at_Risk_of_Closing,” Center for Healthcare Quality & Payment Reform The issue being detailed here being: Smaller and rural hospitals are under the threat of closing as the Tr__p administration cuts funding to pay for the 2017 tax break. A tax break which Trump promised it would pay for itself. It did not. So, Tr__p will keep […]

The post Rural Hospitals at Risk of Closing appeared first on Angry Bear.