Futures Push Higher Into Record Territory Amid Trade Talk Progress

S&P 500 futures pushed deeper into record territory as progress in trade negotiations aids sentiment following Friday’s record high close for cash index, the first since February. As of 8:00am ET,  S&P futures are up 0.4% on positive trade headlines, including US/Canada, US/EU, US/India, and US/Taiwan (on Friday, the US/Canada flare up limited gains late in the session, with Canada reversing just two days later and agreeing to withdrew its digital services tax on US tech companies to restart talks). Nasdaq futures gain 0.6% amid a continued meltup in AI names and the most shorted basket; tech stocks lead in premarket trading, with Mag7/semis producing early strength, banks higher on de-reg, with Industrials also pushing Cyclicals over Defensives. Major European markets are all lower with France leading and Spain lagging, while the Asian session saw Japan leading and HK lagging given weakness in HSTECH. Besides the Canadian U-turn, French Finance Minister Lombard said hes optimistic about securing a EU/US trade deal before the July 9th deadline; India’s trade team extended their stay in the US to work on a deal. Outside of trade, focus for the week will be on quarter-end today, Powell speaking and ISM Manf on Tuesday and Payrolls on Thursday, along with negotiations over Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Yields are lower with the very front-end selling off while 10Y yields are down 2bps to 4.25%. Month-end bond index rebalancing at 4pm New York time has potential to drive buying by passive investors. The USD starts the week lower. Commodities are mixed with Energy weaker, precious higher, and Ags mixed. Today’s macro data focus is Chicago PMIs (9:45am), Dallas Fed Manf (10:30am), Fed’s Bostic (10am), Goolsbee (1pm); markets await jobs data over the next 3 sessions.

In premarket trading, Tesla is the only stock among Magnificent 7 companies falling, down 0.8%, as President Trump’s landmark budget bill passed a key senate hurdle over the weekend. The bill cuts electric vehicle and other clean energy credits. Other Mag7 names are all higher (Amazon +0.6%, Meta +1.9%, Apple +0.8%, Nvidia +0.7%, Alphabet +1.2%, Microsoft +0.6%). 

• Circle Internet Group (CRCL) falls 4% after JPMorgan — a lead in its successful IPO this month — starts coverage with an underweight recommendation due a valuation pushed beyond the broker’s “comfort zone.”
• Disney (DIS) climbs 2% after Jefferies upgraded it’s rating to buy, with the broker now seeing limited risk for a slowdown for its key parks division in 2H 2025.
• Goldman Sachs Group (GS) rises about 2%, gaining with other US banks after the industry’s biggest names comfortably cleared the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test late Friday, setting the stage for lenders to boost buybacks and dividends for shareholders. Wells Fargo (WFC) +2%; Bank of America (BAC) +1%
• Juniper Networks (JNPR) gains 8.4% and HP Enterprise (HPE) rises 8% after the Justice Department settled its lawsuit challenging Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s $13 billion takeover of Juniper Networks, less than two weeks before a trial was set to start, clearing a key hurdle for the takeover.
• Moderna Inc. (MRNA) climbs 5% after saying its experimental flu shot met its goal in a late-stage trial, clearing the path for its broader strategy of selling combination vaccines.

The de-escalation in the conflict between Israel and Iran, combined with data highlighting the US economy’s resilience, propelled the S&P 500 to a record high last week, marking a stunning rebound from April’s tariff-induced rout. Subdued inflation is also strengthening market expectations for interest-rate cuts, even as the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance.

Sure enough, US futures continue to climb on positive trade developments ahead of the July 9th deadline; Canada withdrew digital service tax on tech firms to restart talks w/ US, France’s finance minister said EU can reach some form of agreement before July 9th deadline, India’s team extended their stay in the US to work on a deal, Taiwan noted constructive progress, although Japan talks reportedly stalled over auto tariffs.  With Trump’s July 9 trade deadline fast approaching, officials say negotiations with major partners such as China and the European Union are making progress. Talks with Canada are back on track after the country withdrew a digital services tax, while India’s trade team extended their stay in Washington to iron out differences.

“There is room for further investments in stocks. However, let us not forget that the tariffs will bring a stagflation risk on the US economy,” said Fabien Benchetrit, head of target allocation for France and southern Europe at BNP Paribas Asset Management. “Looking at all the positioning indicators at my disposal, I can not exclude a melt-up.”

Elsewhere, Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act starts a Senate debate/vote this morning with the goal still for a passage by July 4th, after passing a key procedural block by a narrow margin over the weekend. Negotiations are continuing as Republicans seek to convince holdouts to support it for final passage. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates the measure would add nearly $3.3 trillion to US deficits over a decade, weighing on the greenback.

Momentum trades persisted not only in stonks, but also in FX, and the dollar resumed its decline, falling as much as 0.4% against a basket of currencies to trade near three-year lows. The Bloomberg dollar index is down almost 9% for the year, its worst first half since the gauge’s inception in 2005.

“The US dollar remains under cyclical downward pressure, driven by ongoing uncertainties surrounding US fiscal and trade policies,” noted Lloyd Chan, a strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. “One key driver that could further hurt the US dollar is the potential surge in fiscal debt stemming from President Trump’s one big beautiful bill.”

In Asia, the Taiwan dollar plunged more than 2% against the greenback. The sudden move in late trading followed a pattern seen on Friday, fueling speculation the central bank intervened to curb strength in the currency.

Investors are looking to upcoming data, including the monthly payrolls report, to assess the strength of the economy and the outlook for interest rates, with swap traders pricing in at least two quarter-points of Fed easing this year. The employment data “will be watched closely for any signs that the US economy is reaccelerating or slowing more than anticipated,” said Daniel Murray, chief executive officer of EFG Asset Management. “If the latter, then the Fed would be expected to cut rates earlier, although it would be more concerning from the corporate side of things.”
 
European stocks erase early gains as the Stoxx 600 declines 0.2% with auto, bank and mining shares leading the broader market lower. Here are the most notable movers: 

• Serica Energy shares jump as much as 7.9% as it prepares to restart production on the Triton floating production, storage and offloading vessel in the UK North Sea after completing work on the project.
• Kardex shares rise as much as 8% to trade at their highest level in over four months after being upgraded by Kepler Cheuvreux.
• Real estate gains, and is the best-performing sector in Europe, as Deutsche Bank upgrades several names and says it favors commercial real estate over residential.
• STMicroelectronics and Infineon shares gain as both stocks are placed on positive catalyst watch at JPMorgan.
• Renewable energy stocks including Vestas and Orsted drop as the Senate’s latest version of President Donald Trump’s spending package looks to phase out key tax incentives for US wind and solar projects more aggressively.
• Forbo shares drop as much as 5.2%, the most in over six weeks, after announcing its Chief Financial Officer and interim Chief Executive Andreas Jaeger will be leaving the floor covering and adhesive manufacturer in the fourth quarter of 2025.
• Croda shares drop as much as 4.3% on Monday after Kepler Cheuvreux initiated coverage of the UK-based chemicals supplier with a reduce recommendation.
• Galderma shares fall as much as 4.5%, the most in over two months, as UBS cut the stock to neutral from buy following its recent strong performance. Broker sees limited upside ahead.
• Man Group shares fall as much as 3.6%, the most since mid-April, after Peel Hunt downgrades the investment management firm’s stock to add from buy, citing the performance of its AHL funds in the current market environment.
• WH Smith shares drop as much as 8.3%, the most in 14 months, after the retailer completed the sale of its high street business, but under revised terms that will see lower gross proceeds flow into its accounts.
• TT Electronics shares drop as much as 7.7%, pulling back from a six-month high, after the electronics company reported a drop in sales during the first five months of the year ahead of its annual general meeting later today.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged lower, reversing early gains, as losses widened in Hong Kong and Taiwan in late trading. Tech shares weighed on the regional benchmark after making advances last week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index erased an increase of as much as 0.4% to trade 0.2% lower, with TSMC, Tencent and Alibaba the biggest drags. Gauges in India and the Philippines also fall, while those in Japan, South Korea and Australia closed higher. Tech firms listed in Hong Kong mostly traded lower as investors took some money off the table ahead of a deadline for trade talks with the US next week. Shares fell more than 1% in Taiwan amid equity outflows and as the local currency slumped in a sudden move toward the end of trading. 

In rates, treasury futures advance in early US session, outperforming European bonds gaining on UK GDP and regional German CPI data. Yields are 2bp-3bp richer across tenors with curve spreads little changed; 10-year TSY near 4.25% is about 2.5bp richer on the day and about 1bp better vs bunds and gilts in the sector. Month-end bond index rebalancing is projected to increase duration of Bloomberg Treasury index by 0.07 year. Bunds gain, having benefited from state inflation readings that point to the national rate coming in slightly below the consensus later on Monday. Italian CPI also rose less than expected. German 10-year borrowing costs fall 1 bp to 2.58%. 

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2% while the yen take top spot among the G-10 currencies, rising 0.3% against the greenback. The pound is the weakest with a 0.1% fall.

In commodities, oil slightly lower following headlines of a potential sizeable OPEC+ production increase on Friday, with the meeting set for this weekend. CTA models are now firmly for sale in oil—nearly $10bn in selling expected over the week across Brent and WTI. WTI trades down 0.3% to around $65 a barrel. Energy remains a funding short. Spot gold climbs $10 to around $3,285/oz.

Looking at today's calendar, the US data slate includes June MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers) and Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (10:30am). Ahead this week are ISM manufacturing, JOLTS, ADP employment and June employment report — on Thursday ahead of July 4 holiday. Fed speakers include Bostic (10am) and Goolsbee (1pm). Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell participates on a policy panel in Sintra with BOE Governor Andrew Bailey, ECB President Christine Lagarde, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Bank of Korea Governor Chang Yong Rhee.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 mini +0.4%
• Nasdaq 100 mini +0.6%
• Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
• Stoxx Europe 600 -0.2%
• DAX little changed
• CAC 40 little changed
• 10-year Treasury yield -3 basis points at 4.25%
• VIX +0.8 points at 17.07
• Bloomberg Dollar Index -0.2% at 1193.38
• euro +0.1% at $1.1732
• WTI crude little changed at $65.5/barrel

Top Overnight News

• Trump’s $4.5 trillion tax-cut bill faces a marathon voting session on dozens of amendments in the Senate today. It faces opposition from around eight Republican senators. The CBO estimates the proposal would add $3.3 trillion to US deficits over the next decade. BBG
• Congressional Budget Office said the Senate version of the Trump tax bill will add USD 3.3tln to US debt over the next decade: BBG
• Elon Musk posted on X that the latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immediate strategic harm to the country, while he added it is utterly insane and destructive, as well as gives out handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.
• Fox's Pergram says "Senate not expected to begin vote-a-rama until 9 am et on Big, Beautiful Bill. Most vote-a-ramas run 9 to 15 hours. House not expected to vote until Wednesday at the earliest": Fox 
• Canada has scrapped a digital services tax that targeted US technology companies, in an effort to smooth trade negotiations with its neighbor after Trump described the levy as a “direct and blatant” attach. FT
• OpenAI is starting to utilize some of Google’s proprietary AI chips to power ChatGPT and other products, the first time it has used non-Nvidia silicon in a meaningful way (OpenAI hopes the Google chips will help reduce costs). The Information
• China’s NBS PMIs for June come in a bit ahead of expectations, including manufacturing at 49.7 (up from 49.5 in May and above the Street at 49.6) and non-manufacturing at 50.5 (up from 50.3 in May and above the Street at 50.3). WSJ
• Trump floated the idea of keeping 25% tariffs on Japan’s cars as talks between the two nations continued with little more than a week to go before a slew of higher duties are set to kick in if a trade deal isn’t reached.
• South Korea sees the need for trade negotiations with the US to continue past next week’s deadline as Seoul continues to seek exemptions from US tariffs including duties affecting the auto and steel industries. BBG
• Ukraine said Russia fired a record 537 missiles and drones yesterday, targeting seven regions. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin expanded the range of information covered by a state secrecy law. BBG
• France’s finance minister said the EU can clinch some form of trade agreement with the US before a July 9 deadline. BBG
• Iran said it doubts the US-brokered ceasefire with Israel will last, and warned of a firm response to any aggression. Meanwhile, an intercepted call showed Tehran felt the strikes on its nuclear program were less damaging than expected. BBG, WaPo

Trade/Tariffs

• US President Trump announced on Friday that the US is stopping trade talks with Canada due to the latter putting a digital services tax on US tech companies. However, it was reported a few days later that Canada rescinded the Digital Services Tax to advance broader trade negotiations with the US, while PM Carney and US President Trump agreed that parties will resume negotiations with a view towards agreeing on a deal by July 21st.
• US President Trump said in an interview with Fox Business News, which aired on Sunday, that Japan takes in no American cars and its vehicles should be subject to a 25% auto tariff in the US.
• UK government said the UK-US trade deal has today come into force, slashing US export tariffs for the UK's automotive and aerospace sectors, while it added that UK car manufacturers can now export to the US under a reduced 10% tariff quota and that 10% tariffs on goods like aircraft engines and aircraft parts are removed with a commitment to maintain them at 0%.
• Canada acted to support its steel producers and workers in which it set new tariff rate quotas for steel mill product imports from non-FTA partners.
• China Customs said it resumed imports of qualified aquatic products from some Japanese regions.
• Indonesia is to ease import restrictions on some goods including forestry products, plastic materials and some fertilisers, while it offered the US to jointly invest in the Brownfield Project of critical minerals in Indonesia as part of tariff talks.
• Bank for International Settlements said the global economy and financial system have entered a new era of heightened uncertainty, while it added that rising protectionism and trade fragmentation are particularly concerning.
• EU Competition Commissioner Ribera say, on a EU-US deal, “We will not compromise … around sovereignty and around regulation on how to work in our own market,”, via Politico citing excerpts from The Capitol Forum.
• Japan's Tariff negotiator says they will continue working with the US to reach a tariff agreement, while defending national interests. Continuation of 25% auto tariffs would cause significant damage.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week mostly in the green following last Friday's record highs on Wall St but with some of the gains capped heading into month-end and as participants digested a slew of data including somewhat mixed Chinese PMIs. ASX 200 edged higher with strength in the defensive sectors but with upside limited by data including softer-than- expected private sector credit. Nikkei 225 outperformed despite disappointing Industrial Production data which showed a surprise Y/Y contraction and with the index also unfazed by recent comments from US President Trump who noted that Japanese vehicles should be subject to a 25% auto tariff in the US. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed following the latest PMI data which showed headline Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory, as expected, although Non-Manufacturing PMI accelerated at a faster pace than forecast.

Top Asian News

• US officials are drawing up plans for US President Trump’s state visit to China later this year with a delegation of dozens of CEOs, according to Nikkei.
• US President Trump said they have a buyer for TikTok and that it is a group of very wealthy people.
• Canada’s Industry Minister ordered Hikvision (002415 CH) to cease all operations and close its business in the country after a national security review.
• Japanese government official said regarding factory output that sentiment among manufacturers is worsening over uncertainties in the production environment and the number of firms concerned about the impact of US tariffs on production and shipments slightly increased in May from April.

European bourses kicked off the first trading session of the week with modest gains following the upside on Wall Street, in which the sentiment reverberated into APAC markets before reaching Europe; Stoxx 600 +0.1%. However, gains are modest and benchmarks are gradually dipping into the red with traders cognisant of the looming July 9th reciprocal deadline. Sectors opened firmer with just Energy in the red, though the picture since has become more mixed but with the breadth of price action narrow. Focus on reports that US tariff policies coupled with low river levels are causing the worst supply chain congestion since COVID, according to FT. Issues at the ports of Rotterdam, Antwerp, and Hamburg are expected to last for several months.

Top European News

• UK launches the biggest financial advice shakeup in more than a decade with the regulator unveiling plans for targeted support to help individuals get better returns, according to FT.
• ECB's de Guindos says they are confronting "brutal uncertainty"; Q2, Q3 growth will be almost flat; Consumption as a driver has not happened; must keep all rate options open because of uncertainty.
• ECB updates its monetary policy strategy: Governing Council confirms symmetric 2% inflation target over the medium term; Symmetry requires appropriately forceful or persistent policy response to large, sustained deviations of inflation from target in either direction; all tools remain in toolkit and their choice, design and implementation will enable an agile response to new shocks; structural shifts such as geopolitical and economic fragmentation and increasing use of artificial intelligence make the inflation environment more uncertain.

FX

• DXY has commenced the week, month-end, quarter-end and half-year-end off on a mildly negative footing after a run of five consecutive losses last week. Down to a 96.97 low at worst, while the benchmark remains in the red it has managed to reclaim the figure, but remains shy of the earlier 97.299 peak. For reference, the mentioned session low is another multi-year trough.
• EUR contained. EUR/USD faded out initial gains, peaked at 1.1750, just before Friday's 1.1753 multi-year peak. Focus on the inflation front, though no significant move to German State or Italian prelim CPI thus far, with near term focus firmly on the trade agenda.
• JPY tops the G10 leaderboard. USD/JPY as low as 143.79, is now back to the 144.00 mark but someway shy of the 144.76 peak.
• Sterling marginally softer vs both the EUR and USD. Incremental drivers for the UK light, though today sees the UK-US deal come into force. Cable currently contained within Friday's 1.3683-1.3752 range.
• Antipodeans benefitting from the constructive risk tone and after the PBoC set a firmer Yuan reference rate overnight.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1586 vs exp. 7.1681 (Prev. 7.1627).
• South Africa’s DA Party leader said the Democratic Alliance will withdraw from national dialogue with immediate effect and is in the process of losing confidence in the President’s ability to lead the government.

Fixed Income

• Contained overnight ahead of a busy and front-loaded week. Focus remains firmly on the trade and fiscal fronts; awaiting the reciprocal deadline and monitoring the Reconciliation Bills Senate passage respectively.
• While pertinent, the above developments have not changed the macro picture just yet with USTs in the green by just a handful of ticks within a narrow 111-22 to 112-00+ band, a range that is almost a repeat of Friday’s 111-22+ to 112-02 parameter.
• Bunds are firmer on the session, began in the green and lifted on the morning's German data points of Import Prices and Retail Sales. Thereafter, State CPIs printed and while the metrics were mixed the overall skew was cooler-than-previous, defying consensus for a mainland uptick, lifting Bunds to a 130.52 peak.
• Gilts in the green as well, largely following suit to the above price action in Bunds and USTs. Newsflow lighter domestically as the scale of Labour rebellion to PM Starmer’s Welfare Bill appears to have moderated significantly after the u-turn on Friday. While firmer, Gilts remain shy of the 93.36 peak on Friday and by extension last week’s 93.57 high.
• Spanish Economy Minister says we should work to increase the supply of EUR-denominated assets such as joint EU debt issued to finance defence spending.

Commodities

• Crude benchmarks in the red but only modestly so with losses of c. USD 0.20/bbl, after a slightly choppy morning. Began the APAC session subdued given an absence of significant weekend newsflow. This morning, prices found a floor shortly after US President Trump posted that he is not offering Iran anything, and is not talking to Iran since destroying their nuclear sites.
• WTI resides in a USD 64.50-65.45/bbl range while its Brent counterpart trades in a USD 65.92-66.87/bbl range.
• Spot gold is firmer amid the Dollar softness and ahead of upcoming risk events. XAU stopped just shy of USD 3,300/oz this morning after rising from a USD 3,244/oz base.
• Copper futures are subdued with a similar performance to APAC seen in Europe amid the mixed risk appetite; overnight, the latest Chinese PMI data showed Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory despite the US-China trade truce, possibly also weighing on sentiment for the red metal.
• Israel’s Oil Refineries said it resumed partial operation of refining activity in Haifa after damage caused by an Iranian missile during the Israel-Iran war, with full operation expected by October.
• Smoke arose from Iran’s Tabriz refinery, which was caused by a nitrogen tank explosion, although there were no casualties from the incident.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• Israel’s army said it identified the launch of a missile from Yemen on Saturday.
• Egyptian Foreign Minister said work is underway on an upcoming agreement in Gaza that includes a 60-day truce, according to Alhadath via X.
• US President Trump said Israeli PM Netanyahu is in the process of negotiating a deal with Hamas to get hostages back.
• US President Trump said he knew exactly where Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei was sheltered and would not let Israel or US armed forces terminate his life, while Trump said he demanded that Israel bring back a very large group of planes that were headed directly to Tehran in the final act of the war. Furthermore, Trump said he was working on the possible removal of sanctions in the last few days and other things which would have given Iran a much better chance at a recovery but warned that Iran has to get back into the world order flow or things will only get worse for them.
• US justified its strikes on Iran as collective self-defence under the UN Charter in a letter to the UN Security Council and said the objective was to destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and stop the threat that Tehran obtains and uses a nuclear weapon, while it added that the US remains committed to pursuing a deal with the Iranian government.
• IAEA chief Grossi said Iran has the capacity to start enriching uranium again for a possible bomb in a matter of months, according to BBC.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister said if US President Trump is genuine about wanting a deal, he should put aside the disrespectful and unacceptable tone towards Iran’s Supreme Leader.
• Iran’s Armed Forces Chief of Staff Mousavi told Saudi Arabia’s Defence Minister that they highly doubt Israel’s commitment to the ceasefire, according to Tasnim.
• Iran permitted the transiting of international flights over the centre and west of the country. In relevant news, Emirates cancelled all flights to and from Tehran until July 5th due to the regional situation, while it is to recommence operations to Baghdad on July 1st and Basra on July 2nd.
• US President Trump says he is not offering Iran anything, and is not talking to Iran since destroying their nuclear sites.
• "A source involved in the negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza told the pro-Qatari news website Arabi 21 this morning that it is believed that an Israeli delegation will arrive in Cairo in the next two days", according to Israeli Radio's Kai.
• Iran's MFA spokesperson Baghaei says Iran and the EU have not agreed on a date for the next round of discussions. Talks are ongoing with the E3.

Geopolitics: Ukraine 

• Russia said its troops captured Novoukrainka in eastern Ukraine, according to RIA.
• US President Trump said on Friday that he may send patriot missiles to Ukraine and commented that he will get the conflict solved with North Korea’s leader Kim.

Geopolitics: Other

• India’s Ministry of External Affairs said they have seen and rejected the official statement by the Pakistan Army seeking to blame India for the attack in Waziristan on June 28th.

US Event Calendar

• 9:45 am: Jun MNI Chicago PMI, est. 42.85, prior 40.5
• 10:30 am: Jun Dallas Fed Manf. Activity, est. -12, prior -15.3

Central Banks speakers

• 10:00 am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on the Economic Outlook
• 1:00 pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in a Moderated Discussion

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Good morning and welcome to the last day of a tumultuous H1. I think I got heatstroke three times over the weekend so I'm looking forward to work and air con today. Good luck in parts of France, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece (amongst others) as you continue to battle temperatures over 40 degrees.

If the heat doesn't impact you, standby to be disorientated in other ways in this holiday shortened week, as payrolls sees a rare Thursday outing ahead of the Independence Day holiday on Friday. We also have the US ISMs tomorrow and Wednesday, and the various global PMI numbers from tomorrow which will give us a good guide to global economic momentum in June. Elsewhere a highlight will be the ECB forum in Sintra starting today and the European inflation numbers today and tomorrow. The US tax bill should be finalised this week although at the moment it needs to pass the Senate today (or possibly tomorrow), after a drama filled weekend of horse trading, and then back to the House for final approval. The President wants it done by Friday's holiday. At that point attention will swiftly focus to the July 9th deadline extension for reciprocal tariffs. Indeed you'll probably get headlines build up this week and the risk to the market is that with the S&P 500 hitting a new record high at the end of last week, with Treasury yields more becalmed, and with a new tax cutting bill, it's possible that the Trump Administration feels emboldened to be aggressive again. On Friday the US announced that they were stopping trade talks with Canada in retaliation for their digital service taxes and that new tariffs would be launched within a week. However, overnight Canada has dropped this tax to enable talks to restart. This is perhaps a warning shot for the world. So before next Wednesday a lot of water will flow under the global trade bridge.

As noted at the top there is still a fair amount to get through this week first and we'll now go through a few of the main highlights of the week ahead, but remember the full day-by-day calendar is at the end as usual.

For payrolls, DB expects the headline number (+100k forecast vs. +139k previously) to be slightly below the consensus of +113k, with a similar story for private payrolls (DB +100k, consensus +110k, vs. +140k previously). This would also be below the three-month average of 135k and 133k, respectively. Their rationale is based on 1) initial jobless claims being up 8.8% during the June survey week relative to May; and 2) their observation of a recent pattern of subdued summer payroll gains. They also expect the unemployment rate to edge up a tenth to 4.3% but with the risks skewed to it staying unchanged.

Although 100k on payrolls seems low, our economists think the breakeven rate which keeps the unemployment rate steady, is around 100k at the moment and could even be as low as 50k given the Trump Administrations' migration policies. If correct we could have a situation where low payroll growth still tightens the labour market. See US Economic Perspectives: Potential paths for breakeven employment for more on this.

Leading up to payrolls we have JOLTS tomorrow, ADP on Wednesday and also watch out for the employment components in today’s Chicago PMI, tomorrow’s manufacturing ISM, and Wednesday’s Services ISM.

In Europe, the big event will be the ECB's forum on central banking in Sintra running from today through to Wednesday. The policy panel tomorrow will feature heads of the Fed, the ECB, the BoJ, the BoE and the BoK. So plenty of potential headlines there. The ECB will also release its account of the June policy meeting on Thursday and their consumer expectations survey is due tomorrow. Elsewhere in Europe, the BoE will publish its DMP, bank liabilities and credit conditions surveys on Thursday.

In terms of European data, June CPI will continue to be in focus after Friday's prints for France and Spain showed a slight uptick in inflation. Reports for Germany and Italy are out today, with the Eurozone-wide release scheduled for tomorrow. Swiss inflation data is due on Thursday. We also have May German retail sales (today) and factory orders (Friday), Italian retail sales and French IP on Friday.

In Japan the BoJ's Q2 Tankan survey results come out tomorrow with our economists forecasting that the business condition index for large manufacturers in the Tankan survey will worsen -3 points to +9. They expect a similar gauge for large non-manufacturers to slip -2 points to +33. This could be one of a few factors that help influence whether the BoJ hikes again in July, although there's lots of moving parts at the moment including trade agreements with the US.
Asian equity markets are predominantly trading higher this morning. The Nikkei (+1.64%) is standing out, with the index surging to near a one-year peak, propelled by technology stocks. The KOSPI (+0.69%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.52%) are also higher. Chinese stocks are more mixed with the Hang Seng (-0.56%) trading lower, the CSI (-0.02%) flat, but the Shanghai Composite (+0.20%) edging up. S&P 500 (+0.41%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.57%) futures are both pretty firm for this time of day.

Early morning data indicated that China's manufacturing sector contracted for the third consecutive month in June, although at a slightly slower pace than anticipated. The official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 in June (49.6 expected) from the previous month's 49.5. However, the non-manufacturing PMI accelerated a touch, increasing to 50.5 in June, exceeding expectations that it would remain stable at 50.3. Consequently, China's Composite PMI improved to 50.7 in June from 50.4 in May.

In other news, Japan's industrial output fell significantly short of expectations, with a mere +0.5% month-on-month increase compared to the expected +3.4% growth. Although production saw improvements in critical sectors such as machinery and automobiles, five categories—led by non-auto transport equipment—experienced declines.

Recapping last week now and markets were in a buoyant mood, with the S&P 500 rising +3.44% to a new all-time high of 6,173 (+0.52% on Friday) as we closed out the week. Tech stocks outperformed, with the NASDAQ (+4.25%, +0.52% Friday) advancing every day last week to a new high of its own. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+1.32%) posted a modest weekly gain, with the DAX (+2.90%) outperforming, led by German defense companies. And in Japan, the Nikkei had its best week of 2025 so far, up +4.55% (+1.43% on Friday).

The positive mood started with the de-escalation in the Middle East after Trump announced Monday evening that Israel and Iran agreed on a “Complete and Total CEASEFIRE.” Following this, Brent crude saw its biggest weekly decline since 2022, down -12.00% to $67.77/bbl (+0.06% Friday). Meanwhile, gold fell -2.79% on the back of declining geopolitical risk (-1.61% Friday).

Last week’s upbeat tone was also helped by rising expectations of Fed rate cuts despite decent economic data. The positive data included the flash US PMIs for June (52.8 vs. 52.2 expected) and Friday’s UoM consumer survey, that saw current conditions rebound to a four-month high. On the softer side, we saw higher continuing jobless claims (+1,974k vs +1,950k expected) on Thursday and an unexpected drop in May real personal spending (-0.3% vs. 0.0% expected) on Friday.

Lower oil prices and comments from Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s Vice Chair for Supervision, saw pricing of a July rate cut rise as high as 25% on Wednesday, though it was down to 19% by Friday following a slightly stronger (2.7% vs. 2.6% expected) US core PCE inflation print. Still, the next Fed rate cut is now fully priced by September and 64bps of easing is priced by December (+12.7bps on the week). In turn, Treasury yields moved lower, with the 2yr down -16.0bps (+2.9bps Friday) to 3.75%, its lowest since early April, while the 10yr yield was down -9.9bps to 4.28% (+3.6bps Friday). Treasuries were also supported by the Fed announcing a planned easing of banks’ Supplementary Leverage Ratio.

By contrast In Europe, 10yr bund yields rose +7.4bps to 2.59% (+2.2bps Friday) as the German government unveiled a faster-than-expected ramp up of its fiscal stimulus. However, OATs (+1.7bps) and BTPs (-2.4bps) saw smaller moves, with the 10yr BTP-bund spread falling to its lowest level since 2015 at 88bps. The contrasting rates moves on the two sides of the Atlantic saw EURUSD rise +1.69% on the week to 1.1718, its highest level since September 2021.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 08:36

Trump Says TikTok Buyer Is "Group Of Very Wealthy People"

President Donald Trump, in a pre-taped interview on Fox News' Sunday Morning Futures with Maria Bartiromo, revealed that "a group of very wealthy people" is prepared to acquire TikTok's U.S. operations. While he did not disclose the identities of the investors, Trump hinted that the names could be made public in the coming weeks.

"We have a buyer for TikTok, by the way. I think I'll probably need China approval, and I think President Xi will probably do it," Trump told Bartiromo, noting, "It's a group of very wealthy people."

Trump: “We have a buyer for TikTok, by the way.”

Bartiromo: “Who's the buyer?”

Trump: “I'll tell you in about two weeks.” pic.twitter.com/qxF3WMZ3Z8

— Open Source Intel (@Osint613) June 29, 2025

TikTok's future in the U.S. has been uncertain since the passage of the 2024 bipartisan law, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act (PAFACA), which requires the platform's Chinese parent company, ByteDance, to divest its ownership or face a nationwide ban. The legislation was fueled by growing concerns over various national security threats, including foreign interference in elections and potential misuse of sensitive user data.

Just weeks ago, Trump once again delayed enforcement of PAFACA through an executive order, pushing the deadline back to mid-September. The original implementation date had been set for his inauguration in January.

Trump has been a supporter of TikTok, recently touting his popularity on the app: "I was No. 1 on TikTok in its history. Can you believe that? ... So I guess I like TikTok." 

Trump has tasked Vice President JD Vance with overseeing efforts to find a potential buyer, which could include Oracle's Larry Ellison and firms like Perplexity AI and AppLovin. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 08:30

The U.S. net international investment position, the difference between U.S. residents' foreign financial assets and liabilities, was -$24.61 trillion at the end of the first quarter of 2025, according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Assets totaled $36.85 trillion, and liabilities were $61.47 trillion. At the end of the fourth quarter of 2024, the net investment position was -$26.54 trillion (revised). Full Text

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week.
Inventory is now up 33.1% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 20% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than normal pickup in inventory.
The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.
Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  
Inventory was up 28.7% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 30.7%), and down 14.1% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 13.2%). 
This is the highest level since November 2019.
For 2019, this was the week inventory peaked for the year (then moved sideways for several months), so any further increase this year will close to gap to 2019.  It now appears inventory will be close to 2019 levels towards the end of 2025.
This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.
As of June 27th, inventory was at 831 thousand (7-day average), compared to 829 thousand the prior week. 
Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube

What GAO Found The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and Department of Defense (DOD) have shared mutually beneficial medical and other services through 185 sharing agreements, as of April 2025. For example, veterans may receive care at DOD facilities for services including surgery, orthopedics, and mental health. These agreements can result in greater access to care for veterans and cost savings for the federal government, in part because of the discounted rate that VA and DOD pay each other for health care delivered under such sharing agreements. Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Clinic Located on a Military Base VA and DOD collect information on the characteristics of all sharing agreements as well as referrals of veterans to DOD facilities made through sharing agreements; however, the departments do not evaluate the effectiveness of sharing agreements. Officials told GAO that they use the number of sharing agreements and the continuation of agreements as measures of the agreements' value. However, VA and DOD could maximize the benefits of these agreements by developing a performance management process, including establishing performance goals for the agreements, evaluating progress towards the goals, and making changes as appropriate. VA and DOD have taken some steps to identify new or expanded sharing opportunities, including tracking space-sharing projects through a committee. However, the departments largely rely on local officials to identify potential areas for new and expanded sharing, which may result in missed opportunities for sharing. Developing a systematic, department-level process to identify and implement opportunities for new and expanded sharing agreements could help ensure the departments maximize sharing, which could in turn help improve patients' access to care as well as reducing costs. Why GAO Did This Study VA and DOD operate two of the nation's largest health care systems. Together, these systems serve over 18 million beneficiaries. VA's health care system includes approximately 170 medical centers and 1,200 clinics, while DOD's health care system includes more than 700 medical facilities worldwide. VA and DOD have entered into agreements to share health care services to improve access to and cost effectiveness of care. GAO was asked to review the departments' use of sharing agreements. This report describes the number and types of sharing agreements; examines the extent to which VA and DOD assess them; and examines how VA and DOD identify opportunities for new or expanded sharing agreements, among other topics. GAO reviewed VA and DOD documents and data, including active sharing agreements as of April 2025; conducted site visits to 12 VA and DOD facilities with active agreements, selected to represent diversity in geography and the type of sharing taking place; and interviewed VA and DOD officials.

What GAO Found The U.S. territories' levels of public debt vary, along with the factors that affect each of their capacities for economic growth and debt repayment. To assess their ability to repay debt, GAO used the most recently available audited financial statements. Audited financial statements for some territories are almost 2 years late, and independent auditors have identified issues that raise data reliability concerns for the available statements. These financial reporting limitations can lead to poor financial decisions and lost access to capital markets. Geographic Locations of U.S. Territories Commonwealth of Puerto Rico: As of June 30, 2022, total public debt outstanding was $52.8 billion, 47 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). Negotiations and litigation to restructure the electric utility debt are ongoing, and the utility has been struggling to make its pension payments in the meantime. Guam: As of September 30, 2023, total public debt outstanding was $2.5 billion. 2023 GDP data are not available, but the fiscal year 2022 total public debt was $2.6 billion, about 38 percent of GDP. Its tourism industry has not returned to pre-COVID-19 levels, but U.S. military investment is bolstering the economy. U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI): As of September 30, 2021, total public debt outstanding was more than $2.2 billion, or 50 percent of GDP. USVI's electric utility has critical financial and operational problems, which create challenges for residents and can inhibit economic development. Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI): As of September 30, 2021, total public debt outstanding was $121.1 million, about 13 percent of GDP. Its tourism-reliant economy has limited prospects for recovery, and the challenges to meet its financial obligations have deepened. American Samoa: As of September 30, 2023, total public debt outstanding was $145.4 million. While 2023 GDP data are not available, the fiscal year 2022 total public debt was $152.4 million, about 18 percent of GDP. Its continued economic reliance on a single tuna cannery presents risks. Why GAO Did This Study The five permanently inhabited U.S. territories—the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, Guam, USVI, CNMI, and American Samoa—have borrowed through financial markets to bridge the gap between tax receipts and the financial resources required to fund government programs. The territories all face challenges to achieving continued economic growth and financial accountability, both of which are key to debt management. GAO has previously reported on some of the common challenges, including (1) the location of the islands, which leads to a high cost of energy and imported goods; (2) increasing vulnerability to frequent and severe episodes of extreme weather; (3) undiversified economies based on few industries with limited job opportunities; and (4) outmigration and population loss. In 2016, Congress passed and the President signed the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act. It contains a provision for GAO to review the territories' public debt every 2 years. This is the fifth report in this series. In this report, for each of the five territories, GAO presents public debt figures and describes risk factors that may affect their ability to repay public debt, among other updates. GAO analyzed audited financial statements for fiscal years 2020 through 2023, as available. GAO also reviewed demographic and economic data and interviewed officials from the territories' governments. For more information, contact Yvonne D. Jones at JonesY@gao.gov or Latesha Love-Grayer at LoveGrayerL@gao.gov.

What GAO Found Over the last 30 years, the Department of Defense (DOD) has used different acquisition strategies to procure launches for military satellites from commercial providers. DOD's most recent acquisition strategy—Phase 3—responds to DOD's evolving and growing demand for launch services and infrastructure. Phase 3 is a dual lane approach intended to lower government launch costs, ensure mission success and access to space, and facilitate competition. Lane 1: Expands DOD's supply of newer commercial providers that can meet a subset of launch requirements. Lane 2: Assures DOD's access to space with three commercial providers, which must meet all launch requirements for a specified number of DOD's most critical payloads. DOD is also taking steps to upgrade its launch infrastructure, which is strained by the increased rate of launches. In addition to military launches, companies use federal ranges to meet their own commercial launch needs—and commercial launches have more than quadrupled since 2021. Commercial Launches at Federal Launch Sites Have Quadrupled Since 2021 Increases in commercial launches have resulted in DOD providing more support to commercial entities, but DOD has struggled to accurately bill companies for direct costs. Until recently, DOD could not collect and be reimbursed for indirect costs for commercial space launch services, which include the actual costs of maintaining, operating, upgrading, and modernizing DOD space-related facilities. Recent legislation allows DOD to be reimbursed for indirect costs within certain limitations, but DOD does not have clear cost collection and reimbursement guidance for support services at launch ranges, potentially missing opportunities to recoup millions of dollars. DOD has limited payload processing capacity and lacks sufficient commercial scheduling information to manage payload processing, which is when the payload is integrated with the launch vehicle before it is transported to the launch pad. The lack of insight into commercial processing schedules hinders DOD's efforts to coordinate processing for its own payloads. As a result, it lacks a critical tool to ensure effective coordination and efficient use of its existing and future processing capacity. Why GAO Did This Study Commercial and military activities in space have grown considerably in the last decade, with continued growth expected. This growth will increase the demand on the federal launch infrastructure that supports these activities. DOD has already invested billions of dollars into launch systems and infrastructure. To support the growing demand, DOD expects to spend over $18 billion on launch services and infrastructure over the next 5 years. A Senate report includes a provision for GAO to assess DOD's Phase 3 strategy. GAO's report addresses (1) DOD's Phase 3 strategy to meet its national security space launch demand and (2) the extent to which DOD is addressing launch-related challenges as it executes Phase 3. To conduct this work, GAO reviewed documentation, analyzed launch data, and visited all three federally owned launch ranges. GAO also interviewed DOD officials, other federal agency officials, and contractor representatives involved in launch activities.

Bit of a rewrite . . . Democratic socialist who would become the first Muslim to be NYC mayor if elected. He first has to get past the right-wingers who have come out of hiding since Zohran Mamdani’s success in the Democratic primary for New York City mayor. Being a Democrat is one thing. Being […]

The post Successful in a Primary? Don’t expect the Right Wingers Will Let you Pass . . . appeared first on Angry Bear.

What Participants Discussed During the forum, participants identified approaches in five key areas that could help reduce health care spending or increase the value for that spending (see figure). Key Areas Identified by Participants at GAO’s Forum on Health Care Spending in the U.S. Supporting a high-functioning primary care system by providing more resources for team-based care through a payment model that combines fee-for-service payment with a fixed amount paid to providers regardless of the services provided. This could improve continuity of care and care coordination and help decrease unnecessary services and inappropriate tests. Expanding the health care workforce by increasing the graduate medical education opportunities to help address shortages and the uneven distribution of physicians across the country. Increasing compensation and other benefits could also attract and retain home health workers and nursing assistants. Expanding the workforce could increase access to care and reduce the need for costly services, such as institutional care (hospitalization or nursing home care). Reforming health care pricing and promoting high-value care by adopting pricing strategies used by other countries particularly in cases where prices for medical services and pharmaceuticals exceed their clinical value. Reforming Medicare physician payments by revising the Medicare physician fee schedule particularly in cases where it may incentivize physicians to provide specialty care services (e.g., diagnostic imaging) over primary care services (e.g., clinical diagnosis), or to provide more services than are necessary. Mitigating anticompetitive incentives and practices by implementing entirely site-neutral payments in Medicare, wherein Medicare pays the same rate for a medical service regardless of the site where it is performed. This could reduce the incentives for hospitals and physician practices to consolidate. Participants agreed that legislative action, federal investment, or both would be needed to implement most of the approaches discussed. Why GAO Convened This Forum For many years, GAO has raised the alarm about the federal government being on an unsustainable long-term fiscal path. One of the key drivers of federal debt is spending on federal health programs, such as Medicare and Medicaid. Spending on federal health programs is projected to increase at a faster rate than the gross domestic product (GDP) over the next 30 years. As the population ages and health care costs increase, GAO projects that federal spending on health care programs will be 8.5 percent of the GDP in 30 years. Efforts to contain these costs have been met with mixed success. On October 22, 2024, GAO convened a diverse panel of 30 health care experts to focus on the challenges of health care spending. The purpose of the panel was to help advance the dialogue and identify issues associated with one of the most perplexing problems facing the government. It comprised federal government officials, academics, researchers, clinicians, and industry experts who represented a range of expertise and experiences. Participants discussed approaches to reduce health care spending and enhance value received for that spending, among other things. The viewpoints summarized in the report do not necessarily represent the views of all participants, their affiliated organizations, or GAO. GAO provided participants the opportunity to review a draft of this summary. Their comments were incorporated as appropriate. For more information, contact Jessica Farb at FarbJ@gao.gov.

What GAO Found Under coastwise laws, U.S. vessel owners and operators engaged in domestic trade generally must use U.S.-built vessels. The construction of vessels in U.S. shipyards helps to support the U.S. maritime industry, which plays a vital role in national defense. Because U.S.-built vessels generally cost more than foreign-built ones, the Maritime Administration has four financial assistance programs to encourage or improve U.S. shipbuilding. The Federal Ship Financing Program generally offers loan guarantees for vessel construction at U.S. shipyards. In the last 5 years, the program executed two loan guarantees for two vessel owners totaling nearly $400 million. The two tax deferral programs, the Construction Reserve Fund Program and the Capital Construction Fund Program, allow vessel owners or operators to defer paying tax on certain eligible deposits that are placed into an account and can be used to fund projects at U.S. shipyards. In 2024, seven vessel owners or operators had a Construction Reserve Fund program account, and 137 vessel owners or operators had a Capital Construction Fund Program account. Finally, the Small Shipyard Grant program provides grants to small shipyards for equipment or training. In fiscal year 2024, this program had $8.75 million in available funds and had 78 grant applications from shipbuilding or repair companies requesting just under $50 million. These four financial assistance programs have provided some support for vessel owners or operators and shipyards, but the programs' administration does not follow leading practices for assessing program performance. For example, the Maritime Administration cannot determine to what extent the programs are effective in growing the U.S. maritime fleet because it has not established measurable goals for, or assessed the performance of, these programs. Doing so would allow the Maritime Administration to identify any changes that could better increase the nation's shipbuilding capacity to promote national security and economic prosperity. An April 2025 Executive Order established United States policy to revitalize and rebuild domestic shipbuilding and requires certain actions to grow the U.S. maritime fleet. In addition, the 31 industry stakeholders GAO interviewed identified challenges facing vessel owners or operators and shipyards competing within the U.S. domestic maritime industry. They also had ideas to address those challenges (see table). Selected Industry Stakeholders' Ideas to Address Challenges Facing Domestic Vessel Owners or Operators and Shipyards Challenge Ideas Domestic vessel owners or operators face competition with other modes of transportation, such as trucks. Encourage the use of domestic vessels to carry cargo along rivers or between coastal ports. Shipyards face workforce challenges from “boom-and-bust” cycles created by fluctuating demand for new vessel construction. Smooth the workflow through economies of scale, such as through large, consistent federal vessel procurements. Shipyards face challenges with aging infrastructure. Expand the Small Shipyard Grant program, and encourage foreign investment. Source: GAO analysis of 31 stakeholders' statements. | GAO-25-107304 Why GAO Did This Study Concerns over the state of U.S. commercial shipbuilding have grown in recent years. Such concerns are particularly related to the nation's capacity to meet government shipbuilding and repair needs that are critical to national defense. The James M. Inhofe National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023 includes a provision for GAO to review efforts to support the U.S. commercial maritime industry. This report addresses, among other topics, (1) the use of the Maritime Administration's programs to encourage or improve U.S. shipbuilding and the extent to which they follow leading practices and (2) ideas identified by selected stakeholders to address challenges facing the maritime industry. GAO reviewed Maritime Administration documents and compared its four financial assistance programs with leading practices for performance management. GAO also surveyed domestic vessel owners and operators and shipbuilding or repair companies. GAO also visited selected shipyards and interviewed government officials and 31 industry stakeholders selected to provide a range of perspectives on the Maritime Administration's programs and the maritime industry's ability to contribute to national defense.

After the shootings, Utah Representative Lee wrote on X: “This is what happens when Marxists don’t get their way.” In another post, he posted a photo of Boelter with the caption “Nightmare on Waltz Street.” The caption appeared to be a reference to Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a Democrat. Lee has since deleted the posts […]

The post Gaining Ground after a Political Shooting? It did Not Happen Like it was Supposed to . . . appeared first on Angry Bear.

My 4-day week Monday reads:

• The Business of Betting on Catastrophe: World Bank pandemic bonds paid out only after death tolls passed a threshold. They’re part of a booming market where investors turn calamity into capital. (The MIT Press Reader)

• The Stock-Market Rally Is Moving Beyond Big Tech and Investors Are Thrilled. One measure of market breadth recently touched a new high, as financial and industrial names fuel stocks’ climb. (Wall Street Journal) see also Bonds Have Underperformed. Why You Should Own Them Now. Barron’s has long favored dividend-paying stocks for those seeking income. But bonds now deserve a hard look because they are so attractively priced. (Barron’s)

• Why gold prices are forecast to rise to new record highs: “We have seen this before in 2008, 2020, and even in August 2024. Times like these are good buying opportunities, because gold typically rebounds shortly afterwards as investors seek safe assets. The same thing played out in April.” (Goldman Sachs)

• Lucky Breaks: Skilled management can take the limited resources and luck they’ve been given and multiply it. Mediocre management can’t. (Micro Cap Club)

• A Recipe for Doubling Your Stock Returns, Again and Again: Time is the secret ingredient of investing, a market veteran says. Over many decades, diversified stock index funds have produced extraordinary results. (New York Times)

• The Global A.I. Divide: Where A.I. Data Centers Are Located Only 32 nations, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, have A.I.-specialized data centers. (New York Times)

• The Future of Abundance and the Left: Left-wing commentators say abundance is their opposition. Left-wing politicians say it’s a credit to the Democratic Party. What if they’re both right? (Derek Thompson)

• How the Universe Differs From Its Mirror Image: From living matter to molecules to elementary particles, the world is made of “chiral” objects that differ from their reflected forms. (Quanta Magazine) see also The Largest Camera Ever Built Releases Its First Images of the Cosmos: The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is poised to discover billions of new astronomical objects, revolutionizing understanding of everything from the history of the solar system to the workings of dark energy. (Wired)

• How one program is changing surf culture in San Francisco: City kids in SF spend their Fridays learning to surf through this cool project. (The San Francisco Standard)

• The essential listening guide to Bruce Springsteen’s ‘Tracks II: The Lost Albums’ It’s a great day when your favorite artist releases a new record. But what if they released seven new records at once, recorded across almost three decades, full of music you didn’t even know existed? (NPR)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business this week Velina Peneva, where she manages more than $100 billion of Swiss Re‘s internal cpaital as the firm’s Chief Investment Officer: Previously, she was Private Equity practice leader in Zurich for Bain & Company.

 

What does it cost the IRS to collect taxes?

Source: USA Facts

 

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The post 10 Monday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Can Oil And Gas Solve The AI Power Dilemma

Authored by Joe Brettell via UtilityDive.com,

The promise, peril and possibilities of artificial intelligence continue to capture the cultural and business zeitgeist worldwide. Hardly a conference or long-form interview can be held these days without a panelist or pundit commenting on the technology’s implications for their profession.

Yet despite being the hottest topic in every circle, AI’s ultimate challenge isn’t technological but physical. After years of breathless speculation and prediction, the issue remains the same: AI needs more energy.

Data center power consumption

Source: McKinsey

Amidst this backdrop, the oil and gas industry faces a similarly fundamental challenge: a shifting production frontier and evolving path to continued growth. After a decade of efficiency-driven growth, the era of easy barrels is waning. Diamondback Energy CEO Travis Stice captured the new reality in a recent letter, warning of the increasingly dim prospects for expanding production amid geological constraints and rising costs. Other energy majors have issued similar cautions, a sharp departure from the boom years of the shale revolution when abundant, low-cost reserves, followed by shareholder-focused production, made the industry a market favorite.

Now, with resource intensity rising, global volatility accelerating and economic conditions tightening, the industry is under pressure to find its next value horizon.

That horizon may be converging with AI.

The pairing makes increasing sense. While initially circling one another warily, major players in energy and technology have become increasingly intertwined. At major gatherings like CERAWeek, energy executives and tech leaders now share the same stage — and increasingly, the same strategic questions. How do we scale the infrastructure to match exponential AI growth? Who will supply the energy to power it? And how do we do so fast enough while dealing with rising environmental, social and regulatory concerns?

These challenges come amid a stark reality: AI’s computational appetite isn’t just increasing — it’s exploding. Several recent studies demonstrate that power demand will soar by the end of the decade, presenting real challenges for utilities and their customers who are already grappling with rising costs.  

That creates both a dilemma and an opportunity. As federal and state incentives for clean energy projects face legal and political headwinds — even amid substantial private investment — the timeline to deliver renewable power at scale is getting longer. Grid interconnection queues, permitting delays and community opposition remain real barriers. At the same time, nuclear and geothermal technologies hold promise, but even under the best-case scenarios, their rollout will take years to materially shift supply.

Which brings us (again) to the topic of natural gas.

Few would dispute that a diverse portfolio of renewables, firm power, storage, nuclear and emerging technologies must meet long-term AI energy needs. But without a tectonic shift, an “all of the above” solution is no longer the political reality.  Natural gas is abundant, dispatchable, and backed by a sector with proven experience in infrastructure delivery, supply chain integration and stakeholder engagement.

Granted, natural gas has its share of controversies. Building new pipelines has become increasingly complex, with communities hostile to natural gas infrastructure and deployment nationwide. Yet, despite these challenges, Exxon and Chevron have already announced serious interest in powering data centers. This partnership is not simply one of convenience but of practicality. It is not about reviving old debates but utilizing practical solutions to solve deeper issues for two pillars of the American economy.

The bottom line is that natural gas offers a workable solution for technology companies racing to deploy AI capabilities and energy companies looking to maintain shareholder value amidst a transitional time in the sector. With nuclear and geothermal both gaining political and investment momentum, gas is unlikely to be a permanent panacea but a critical bridge across a widening gap (yes, the old “bridge fuel” talking point is yet again en vogue).

This convergence between oil, technology, and ultimately, utilities isn’t simply a tactical alignment of convenience; instead, there’s a more profound structural shift — energy and compute are no longer parallel industries but mutually dependent pillars of modern innovation.  If you need evidence, look no further than the recent announcement that Open AI and the United Arab Emirates will open a massive new data center in the country by 2026. Even traditional oil powers are hedging their bet and looking to participate in the changes AI will bring.

However, amidst the race to satisfy shareholders, inventors and policymakers, both industries would do well to remember customers. With concern about AI technology continuing to linger and economic challenges only growing, the political and social environment is ripe for a full-throated pushback from households already frustrated by rising energy bills, service disruptions and increasing skepticism toward unchecked tech expansion in their communities and states.  

Many companies are already making significant strides on this front, with investment in local communities, building dialogue, relationships and trust. Yet just as AI’s technological promise can be limited by something practical like where to plug it in, this growing union between energy and technology sectors can be thwarted by unhappy voters. 

Ultimately, the moment demands coordination and innovation, not competition. Only with pragmatic collaboration between energy developers of all kinds, grid operators and the communities where they operate can we build an energy strategy as dynamic as the technology it supports. In the end, like those paradigm-shifting endeavors, the future of AI won’t be decided by what’s possible in silicon. It will be determined by what’s deliverable in steel, concrete and kilowatt-hours.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 06:30

A Third Of American Households Are Over-Burdened By Housing Costs

U.S. Census data analyzed by Harvard University shows that a third of all U.S. households, whether they are buying or renting, spend more than the recommended one third of their income on housing and utilities and therefore qualify as cost-burdened.

While the overall rate of households burdened by housing cost in the U.S. was 32.7 percent in 2023, Statista's Katharina Buchholz shows in the chart below, several states had even higher average burdens.

You will find more infographics at Statista

California, known for its high cost of living, came in at 41.7 percent of burdened households, followed by Hawaii at 39.5 percent, Florida at 38.6 percent and New York at 38.2 percent.

In general, West Coast states and those in the country's populous Northeast showed the highest burdens, with the addition of sunshine locations Florida and Hawaii.

The least burdened households were found in the interior of the country, in West Virginia, North Dakota and Iowa, where fewer than a quarter of households felt an outsized financial burden because of housing costs. Colorado and Texas came in 11th and 12th.

The report published this week shows that renters are more often overburdened by their costs that homeowners, but that the gap has been closing in recent years.

Before and after the Great Recession, homeowners were still more overburdened than renters in the country, but this equilibrium changed in 2012 when renters began to be burdened more by rising rent costs while homeowners were profiting from zero interest rates.

With the end of the no-interest era in 2022, homeowners' burden jumped up, while the economic hardships of the inflation crisis affected both types of households.

The researchers also identified higher insurance premiums and property taxes as an issue for homeowners, while saying that more than half of renters were spending more than 50 percent of household income on renting in 50 out of the 100 largest metro areas in the United States.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 05:45

J.K. Rowling Destroyed Trans Ideology With One Savage Tweet

Authored by Matt Margolis via PJMedia.com,

Famed “Harry Potter” author J.K. Rowling became a vocal critic of transgender ideology back in 2019, when she supported a woman who lost her job for saying that biological sex is immutable. In 2020, Rowling’s tweets and essay argued that prioritizing “gender identity” over biological sex threatens women’s rights and safety, drawing from her experience as an abuse survivor. She faced fierce backlash, was branded a “TERF” by activists, and even endured death threats, but stood firm.

Rowling’s stance has only grown more defiant as she continues to call out the bullying tactics of trans activism and the erasure of women. Despite relentless attacks from activists, media outlets, and even cast members from "Harry Potter," her unapologetic wit and unwavering resolve have made her a leading voice of resistance against a radical ideology that silences dissent. This week, she once again proved why she remains a formidable force in the culture war over gender, giving courage to countless women who’ve been too afraid to speak out.

Apparently some people have been attacking Rowling by saying she looks like a “trans woman.” Her response to such attacks says it all:

Attention all men telling me I look like a trans woman: I’m sensing that this isn’t meant as a compliment. In fact, the implication seems to be that trans women look male, or odd, or ugly. This is appallingly transphobic and I’ll thank you to take your bigotry off my timeline.

— J.K. Rowling (@jk_rowling) June 24, 2025

Talk about a masterclass in rhetorical jiu-jitsu. She takes the intended insult of her critics and flips it right back on them, exposing the hypocrisy at the heart of so much of the pro-trans activist rhetoric.

Rowling’s critics, who claim to be the champions of tolerance and inclusion, routinely stoop to personal attacks and misogynistic insults whenever a woman dares to challenge their orthodoxy. The latest trend is to hurl accusations that Rowling “looks like a trans woman," a jab that is supposed to be both an insult to her and a defense of trans women. But Rowling, with her trademark wit and clarity, called their bluff. 

She pointed out the obvious: If you’re accusing someone of looking like “trans woman” in the pejorative sense, you’re essentially admitting what most people already know: that “trans women” don’t look like real women. Let’s face it, men can grow out their hair, get breast implants, and take whatever drugs they want, but everyone knows what they really are. Calling Richard “Rachel” Levine a woman doesn’t make him a woman. Using female pronouns to refer to Bruce “Caitlyn” Jenner doesn’t change the fact that he is a man. Letting Will “Lia” Thomas compete against real women doesn’t erase what he is.

Rowling refuses to apologize, refuses to play by the ever-changing rules of the woke mob, and instead shines a spotlight on the contradictions baked into their rhetoric, like how calling someone a “trans woman” is supposedly empowering until it’s used as a slur. Her wit, clarity, and refusal to back down force her critics to confront the ugliness of their tactics.

Through years of smears, threats, and public pressure campaigns, Rowling has stood firm, using every attack as an opportunity to expose the movement’s double standards and moral incoherence. In an era when most public figures wilt under pressure, she’s become a symbol of courage for women everywhere who are tired of being silenced. She’s not just defending herself; she’s defending reality, and doing it with a fearlessness that leaves her critics sputtering.

Just because trans activists demand that we all pretend that men who grow their hair out and play dress up are women doesn’t mean that the rest of us have to play along. And when those same activists who have spent years lobbing insults and even death threats at Rowling try to mock her by saying she “looks like a trans woman,” they don’t expose her bigotry; they expose their own hypocrisy. If comparing her to a “trans woman” is meant as an insult, then it’s not Rowling degrading “trans women”; it’s the so-called allies who use the comparison as a punchline. In doing so, they don’t validate their ideology; they reinforce the biological truth they insist everyone ignore.

The attacks on J.K. Rowling reveal just how desperate the radical left has become to crush dissent. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 05:00

Meet The Dystopian Startups Making 'Biological Computers' From Human Cells

Picture a dystopian future where computers don’t just mimic human thinking - they’re powered by actual human brain cells. That future is taking shape in a Cambridge, England, lab, where a groundbreaking device called CL1 is blending biology and technology in ways that could transform how we compute. Developed by Australian startup Cortical Labs and U.K.-based bit.bio, this shoebox-sized machine houses 200,000 lab-grown brain cells wired to silicon circuits, creating a “biological computer” that’s already turning heads.

Cortical Labs' CL1

Unlike traditional computers, which guzzle energy, CL1 operates with the efficiency of a human brain. “Our brains process information using a fraction of the power that modern electronics need,” Hon Weng Chong, CEO of Cortical Labs, told FT. “This could open doors to smarter robots, stronger cybersecurity, and immersive virtual worlds.”

Oh, joy.

Low-energy computing has fueled a race to develop biological systems, with Cortical Labs leading alongside competitors like FinalSpark in Switzerland and Biological Black Box in the U.S.CL1’s brain cells, grown from human skin-derived stem cells, are carefully arranged in layers: one type sparks electrical activity, while another keeps it in check. “It’s like balancing a gas pedal and brakes,” Chong explains. This precision, says bit.bio’s Tony Oosterveen, gives CL1 an edge over rival approaches using less uniform “mini-brains.” The result is a platform for testing how brain cells handle information, with early experiments already yielding insights for neuroscience and drug development.

Photo: Chris Radburn/FT

One of CL1’s quirkiest feats? Playing the classic video game Pong. Its predecessor, DishBrain, learned to move a virtual paddle by receiving electrical “rewards” for good moves and disruptive noise for mistakes. CL1 has taken this further, revealing how substances like alcohol impair performance or how epilepsy drugs, like carbamazepine, boost it. “We’re learning how to ‘program’ these cells,” Chong says, noting that his team is even teaching them to recognize numbers, like distinguishing a nine from a four.

Kagan and team testing the CL1 units, which are built to maintain the health of the cells living on the silicon hardware (New Atlas)

“This is the first device that can consistently measure what neurons can do,” says Mark Kotter, a Cambridge professor and bit.bio founder. Karl Friston, a neuroscientist at University College London, sees it as a tool for groundbreaking experiments, while Johns Hopkins’ Thomas Hartung praises its use of games like Pong to benchmark biological computing.

In the lab, the early CL1 model is put through its paces as the team monitors its response to stimuli (prompts) New Atlas

Chong recognizes the ethical challenges that could emerge if biological computers and neuron cultures begin to show early signs of consciousness.

“[T]hese systems are sentient because they respond to stimuli and learn from them but they are not conscious. We will learn more about how the human brain works but we do not intend to create a brain in a vat.”

The cells form an entirely new kind of artificial intelligence New Atlas

The CL1 units are slated to retail for around $35,000 each and are expected to be broadly available by late 2025, according to a report.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 04:15

Why Greenland Isn't Chasing The Dream Of Becoming A Mining Superpower

Authored by Felicity Bradstock via OilPrice.com,

• Greenland, despite possessing vast mineral reserves and past ambitions from the U.S. to acquire it for these resources, is not interested in becoming a major mining superpower.

• The country's minister for business and mineral resources emphasized a desire for only 5 to 10 active mines at any given time, prioritizing high environmental, social, and governance standards.

• Concerns about the environmental impact and the uncertain economic return from mining activities, particularly with an unstable market for rare earths, contribute to Greenland's cautious approach.

Early in Donald Trump’s presidency, he announced his ambitions to acquire Greenland. In March, Trump said, “We need Greenland for international safety and security. We need it. We have to have it.” As well as stating ambitions to counter Russia’s presence in the Arctic, taking control of Greenland would put vast quantities of rare earth minerals and rare earth elements in the possession of the United States. However, Denmark quickly shot down the idea of Trump’s acquisition, saying that Greenland was not for sale. Meanwhile, Trump’s announcement led several political figures in Greenland to suggest that Greenland should be independent, rather than under the ownership of Denmark or the U.S. 

International powers have long eyed Greenland for its vast mineral potential. As several countries around the world strive to undergo a green transition, the demand for critical minerals is expected to grow dramatically in the coming years. Demand for critical energy transition minerals like lithium, cobalt, and copper could increase almost fourfold by 2030, according to United Nations estimates. 

At present, China dominates the global mineral mining market. According to International Energy Agency (IEA) data, China contributes around 80 percent of the world’s natural graphite and 60 percent of mined magnet rare earths. In 2024, it produced more than 60 percent of the world’s lithium, 40 percent of refined copper, and 70 percent of refined cobalt. As the U.S. looks to reduce its reliance on China for energy, critical minerals, and other goods, President Trump sees Greenland as the potential solution. 

Greenland holds vast mineral reserves, including rare earth metals, coal, graphite, uranium, copper, lead, and zinc. A 2023 Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland survey found that 25 of the 34 critical raw materials recognised by the European Commission are present in Greenland. In addition, as ice sheets melt due to climate change, Greenland’s previously hard-to-retrieve mineral reserves are expected to become more accessible. 

Caroline Kennedy-Pipe, a professor of war studies and Arctic security specialist at the U.K.’s Loughborough University, explained, “The fight for infrastructure in the Arctic is incredibly important. Plus, because Greenland’s ice sheet is melting, and melting fast, those rare earth minerals will become cheaper to access. So, these are seen as long-term investments for America.”

To date, mining activity in Greenland has been limited, as investors have avoided financing mining operations due to the harsh conditions and environmental pushback from community groups. Developing the country’s mining industry would require significant funding, as well as support from local groups. 

Around a decade ago, a team of geologists published a paper that warned of unrealistic expectations for Greenland’s mineral potential. It states, “Even if estimates of the quantity and quality of ore in a geological deposit are well documented… it is difficult to translate this into economic potential and even more difficult to predict a specific revenue for Greenlandic society.” 

Minik Thorleif Rosing, one of the authors of the report, said that the situation remains relatively unchanged since the date of publication. “There is a misconception that Greenland will be like a new Saudi Arabia, only at the size of a small British town,” Rosing said. He blamed the uncertainty on global market conditions for rare earth metals. There has been significant pushback against mining operations, as many Greenlanders believe the cost of mining will far outweigh the benefit. It is unclear just how much of a return on investment Greenland would see from mining activities, as there is no stable market for rare earths, according to Rosing. However, many are more concerned about the environmental impact of mining in the Arctic. 

In June, Naaja Nathanielsen, Greenland’s minister for business and mineral resources, said that while some mining operations are already underway in the country, there is little interest in Greenland becoming a major mining power. “For Greenland, we are not necessarily interested in becoming a really great mining country. We just really want 5 or 10 active mines at any given time,” said Nathanielsen. “We are a very small population, so for us, we don’t need the entire country to be covered in mines. We are happy with managing a few, and I think that is feasible,” she added. 

Nathanielsen emphasised the “very high” environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards held by Greenland. She said, “I think the people of Greenland really support the mining industry, which is quite kind of rare when you look at other jurisdictions. But they do so because they have faith in us having a high environmental standard and taking care of local communities.” Nathanielsen went on to say that if the government compromises its environmental standards, it could lead Greenlanders to no longer support the mining industry, which could be highly detrimental for future projects. 

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 03:30

Oceania Has The Highest Cocaine Use In The World

Oceania recorded by far the highest cocaine use prevalence among 15- to 64-year-olds of any region in the world in 2023, according to the latest report by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.

As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the chart below, that year, just over 3 percent of people said that they had used cocaine.

You will find more infographics at Statista

In the Americas, 1.64 percent of the age group had taken it, with a more detailed breakdown showing that 1.92 percent had used cocaine in North America, versus 1.55 percent in South America and 0.94 percent in Central America.

The UNODC reports that 1.1 percent of Europeans had used cocaine in 2023, with prevalence far higher in Western and Central Europe (1.66 percent), compared to Eastern and South-Eastern Europe (0.28 percent).

In Africa and Asia, far lower shares of people are thought to have used the drug that year, at 0.38 percent and 0.11 percent, respectively.

The global average was 0.47 percent.

By absolute number, it is a different story.

On this metric, the Americas rank first with an estimated 11.41 million people having taken cocaine. It is followed by Europe with 5.97 million, Asia with 3.37 million, Africa with 3.22 million and Oceania with 880,000 people.

Between 2019 and 2023, there was a 68 percent increase in the amount of cocaine seized worldwide. Production of the drug also increased, jumping up nearly 34 percent between 2022 and 2023 to 3,708 tons.

According to the UNODC, global cocaine production "has hit an all-time high once again, accompanied by significant increases in cocaine seizures, cocaine users and – most tragically – cocaine-related deaths in many countries in recent years."

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 02:45

Continued Russian-US Talks Prove Putin Doesn't Think Trump Duped Iran With Diplomacy

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed last week that the US’ bombing of several nuclear sites in Iran won’t affect their bilateral dialogue, declaring that “These are independent processes.”

This is significant since many observers speculated that Trump duped Iran with diplomacy while supposedly plotting to attack it this entire time. If true, then it would follow that he might also be duping Russia too, albeit not in preparation of a direct US attack but in pursuit of some other nebulous goal.

Putin doesn’t adhere to that interpretation, however, which is also proven by him later talking about his “great respect” for Trump and praising his “sincere commitment” to peace in Ukraine.

Skeptics might speculate that he’s playing “5D chess” as part of some “master plan” to “psyche out” the US but that doesn’t make much sense.

There’s no point in continuing a dialogue if one of the parties is convinced that the other isn’t negotiating in good faith. That would be a total waste of time and resources.

Nevertheless, Russian politicians and experts were very critical of Trump’s decision to bomb Iran, as was the country’s Permanent Representative at the UN.

Their polemics don’t equate to Putin supposedly suspecting Trump of foul play in the US’ talks with Iran, however, but they do show that Russia was very displeased with what he ended up doing even though it later expressed cautious optimism about the ceasefire that he claimed credit for brokering. All of this is consistent with Russian policy.

On that topic, Russia is also interested in a ceasefire with Ukraine, but only on its terms. These include Ukraine withdrawing from the entirety of the disputed regions, declaring that it’ll no longer pursue NATO membership, and Western countries cutting off arms shipments to it, among other demands. Russia believes that continued dialogue with the US can lead to Trump ultimately coercing Zelensky into these concessions, to which end Putin offered him a strategic resource-centric partnership as an incentive.

The idea is that the US could invest in Russia’s rare earth and Arctic energy industries, with the first providing the US with its sought-after minerals and the second leading to them jointly managing the global oil and natural gas markets, thus giving each of them stakes in the other’s success. This could then in turn help ensure that relations remain manageable even if another crisis unexpectedly erupts. With time, Russia and the US would then reshape the world order, but only if their détente remains on track.

Therein lies the importance of continued Russian-US dialogue, which Putin is committed to in spite of speculation that Trump duped Iran with diplomacy ahead of attacking it. From his perspective, Trump isn’t just saying the right things about the conflict (most of the time at least), but he more importantly hasn’t doubled down on military-intelligence aid to Ukraine. Simply put, it’s Trump’s actions (or lack thereof in this case) that impress Putin, not his words, which he’d be foolish to take at face value.

That said, there’s no guarantee that Putin can convince Trump to coerce Zelensky into his demanded concessions, and the potential failure of their talks could indeed lead to the US escalating its involvement in Ukraine and therefore worsening tensions with Russia. Even so, Putin won’t prematurely abandon diplomacy just because some speculate that the US never truly intended to reach a deal with Iran, the assessment of which he doesn’t share as confirmed by his own and Peskov’s recent statements.

Tyler Durden Mon, 06/30/2025 - 02:00

Bovard: Trump’s Iran Bombing Is The Latest In Presidential Absolutism

Authored by Jim Bovard

Does President Trump have any legal basis for his foreign policy actions aside from his personal entitlement to absolute power? Presidents have been scorning congressional leashes on their foreign interventions since at least the Korean War. But Trump’s erratic behavior and fevered comments almost make President Richard Nixon look mild-mannered.

Democratic members of Congress and Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) are pushing for a vote on a War Powers Act resolution to put a leash on Trump. But in the same way that President George W. Bush found lawyers that assured him the president was authorized to order torture, so Trump supporters are denying the validity of any law restricting the White House’s warring. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) declared on Tuesday: “Many respected constitutional experts argue that the War Powers Act is itself unconstitutional. I’m persuaded by that argument. They think it’s a violation of the Article 2 powers of the commander in chief.” Johnson is blocking any vote in the House of Representatives on that resolution.

Some Trump apologists are claiming that the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF), enacted in response to the 9/11 attacks, provides all the legal justification that Trump needed. Since President George W. Bush listed Iran as part of the “axis of evil” in his 2002 State of the Union address, that entitles subsequent presidents to scourge Iran forever. There was no justification for putting Iran in that 2002 trifecta, but lack of evidence rarely impedes presidential prattle.

Besides, the AUMF seems as archaic nowadays as a balanced budget amendment. In the same way that congressmen can perpetuate deficit spending by promising decades hence to balance the budget, so the AUMF allows politicians to perpetually pummel any group or nation accused of wrongdoing.

Trump appears to be claiming unlimited power to intervene abroad. In February, Trump posted on Truth Social a saying attributed to Napoleon: “He who saves his country does not violate any law.” Sounding like he was entitled to rule the world, Trump proclaimed in February: “We’ll own Gaza.” Trump signaled support for forcibly expelling more than a million Palestinian refugees in order to create “a Riviera of the Middle East.” In 2023, he boasted to Jewish donors that “I gave you Golan Heights,” signaling his prerogative to dispose of Syrian territory and redraw national boundaries as he pleased.

Trump’s pattern of issuing sweeping demands is driving his response to the Israel–Iran clash. Trump demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran, as if he were General Ulysses S. Grant in 1862 waiting outside a fort commanded by a dimwitted Confederate general. Trump decreed that Iran must completely end all its efforts to enrich uranium, regardless of prior international approval and the lack of evidence for an active weapons program. At one point, Trump ominously warned Tehran’s 10 million residents to “immediately evacuate”—though he didn’t specify any locale where they would be safe from Israeli bombing. Perhaps Trump’s most bizarre utterance was his Truth Social post Saturday night. After announcing that the U.S. had bombed three sites in Iran, Trump concluded, “NOW IS THE TIME FOR PEACE! Thank you for your attention to this matter.” On Wednesday morning at the NATO summit, Trump scoffed at Defense Intelligence Agency doubts on knocking out Iran’s program and compared his bombing attack with Hiroshima and Nagasaki that were “essentially the same thing that ended that war.” That comparison is not expected to boost Trump’s popularity in Japan.

Turn back the clock two decades, and defenders of a bellicose president insisted that George W. Bush was smarter than he sounded. But many Trump supporters seem to think 47 is omniscient. Trump’s posts on Truth Social are now presumed to be vastly more accurate than any U.S. government intelligence report. As Vice President J.D. Vance said on Sunday on Meet the Press, “Of course we trust our intelligence community, but we also trust our instincts.” But what if the strongest instinct is to gratify pro-Israel donors? Secretary of State Marco Rubio provided the lodestar for Trumpian foreign policy: “Forget about intelligence.” DOGE missed a great chance to save over $80 billion a year by abolishing the intelligence agencies that the White House is determined to scorn. (Meanwhile, both the Washington Post and New York Times reported that Trump actually made the final decision to bomb Iran after seeing Fox News hosts lauding Israeli successes attacking Tehran.)

Presumed presidential omniscience is razing constraints on the Oval Office. Trump’s lawyers are touting the same legal nitroglycerine that helped destroy George W. Bush’s presidency. The Trump administration is echoing Bush’s “unitary executive theory” to assert that the president effectively has untrammeled power over almost everything in the solar system. Bush issued more than a hundred signing statements announcing that he would disregard specific provisions in legislation, thanks to “the President’s constitutional authority to supervise the unitary executive branch and to withhold information” from Congress and the American people. Bush used that invocation to justify scorning congressional prohibitions on torture. His administration presumed that “checks and balances” were archaic. But Bush’s legal power-grabs helped make him intensely unpopular by the end of his reign and opened the door for Barack Obama to win the presidency by masquerading as a civil-liberties savior.

Trump-style legal absolutism appears to be the mirror image of tolerance—if not also common sense. Trump’s National Park Service wants to delete any material at national parks that “inappropriately disparages Americans past or living,” so official history will become an even bigger fairy tale.

These legal doctrines are not a hypothetical threat to freedom. On March 25, masked ICE agents seized Rümeysa Öztürk, a Turkish graduate student, off the streets outside Boston. Öztürk was locked up for 45 days and her student visa covertly canceled because she coauthored an op-ed criticizing Tufts University for failing to divest from Israel in response to its actions in Gaza. Rubio vilified her as a “lunatic” and implied that the feds had ample evidence of her crimes and abuses. A leak to the Washington Post revealed that the feds had nothing on her—except that op-ed. Federal Judge William Sessions ordered Öztürk released because her arrest “potentially chills the speech of the millions and millions of people in this country who are not citizens.” Uh, judge… maybe that was the whole point.

No matter how many bombs Trump drops or how many freedoms he skewers, he will retain an iron core of MAGA supporters who view Trump’s own power as the best hope for America. The New York Times noted a similar pattern in 1973 at the start of Nixon’s second term: “Conservatives who have traditionally favored a strong Congress and a weakened Presidency are now advocating the reverse.” Nixon’s attempt to “fix” Washington by radically centralizing power in the White House did not survive the Watergate scandal.

On Monday, Trump proclaimed a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. On Tuesday morning, after ceasefire violations, Trump raged: “We have two countries that have been fighting so long that they don’t know what the f*ck their doing.” Millions of Americans reached the same conclusion about Trump’s own foreign policy. Unfortunately, citizens cannot rely on Congress, the Constitution, or federal law to curb Trump’s interventions at home or abroad.

Tyler Durden Sun, 06/29/2025 - 23:20