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MiB: Ellen Zenter, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley

The Big Picture -

 

 

This week, I speak with Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management and a member of the Firm’s Global Investment Committee. She and her team are responsible for generating event-driven and forward-looking secular thematic insights, identifying how they can contribute to individual- and institutional-investor portfolios, and guiding stakeholders and internal teams to support the firm’s investment strategies.

Previously, Zentner worked at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., and Nomura Securities International. She began her career working as a Senior Economist for the Texas State government under then Governor George W. Bush.

We discuss everything from tariffs to Fed independence to data integrity at the BLS.

A list of her favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on Apple Podcasts, SpotifyYouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Heather Boushey, previously a member of the Council of Economic Advisers under President Biden, and chief economist to the president’s Invest in America cabinet. She is currently a senior research fellow at the Reimagining the Economy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School.

 

 

Favorite Books

 

Books Barry Mentioned

 

 

 

The post MiB: Ellen Zenter, Chief Economic Strategist at Morgan Stanley appeared first on The Big Picture.

Don’t blame capitalism!

Angry Bear -

The one-handed economist I don’t know when this trend started, but it’s now with tiresome regularity that I hear students and adults (adults!) blame capitalism for many sins: poverty, environmental destruction, corrupt politics, the housing “crisis”, failing health/educational systems, and so on. Do the sins of one capitalist company condemn the whole system? Condemn all […]

The post Don’t blame capitalism! appeared first on Angry Bear.

Futures Rebound Ahead Of Powell's Speech

Zero Hedge -

Futures Rebound Ahead Of Powell's Speech

After five days of selling - the longest stretch since Jan 2 - US stock futures halted this week’s run of losses in muted trading ahead of Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, even as markets scaled back bets on imminent interest rate cuts following very strong economic data on Thursday. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 rose 0.2% erasing an earlier decline, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.1% as Nvidia shares fall 1% in premarket after the Information reported the chipmaker had instructed component suppliers to stop production related to the H20 AI chip.  European stocks advanced 0.2%, nudging toward an all-time high. US Treasuries held steady after Thursday’s pullback, with the 10-year rate at 4.33%. The dollar was little changed. there are no scheduled events on the US economic data calendar; Fed Chair Powell is set to speak at 10am ET at Jackson Hole with a slew of other central bank comments expected from the event. The Fed speaker slate also includes Boston Fed President Collins at 9am and Cleveland Fed President Hammack at 11:30am; hawkish comments by Hammack on Thursday pushed yields to session highs. Swap contracts linked to future Fed rate decisions fully price in one quarter-point rate cut this year in October and a second one by year-end.

In premarket trading, Nvidia shares fell 1.1% after the chip giant instructed component suppliers including Samsung Electronics and Amkor to stop production related to the H20 AI chip. Other Magnificent Seven stocks were all higher (Alphabet +1.1%, Tesla +0.5%, Apple +0.5%, Microsoft +0.09%, Amazon +0.4%, Meta +0.2%). Here are the other notable premarket movers: 

  • Biohaven shares (BHVN) gain 13% after the company said the FDA communicated to the company on Aug. 21 that an expected decision regarding the NDA for Troriluzole will still be the fourth quarter.
  • Cameco (CCJ) shares rise 1.9% in premarket trading after National Bank Financial raised its price target on the uranium company to C$115 from C$110 as it sees the company’s Westinghouse stake adding value.
  • Gap shares (GAP) fall 2.1% in premarket trading on Friday as Barclays downgrades to equal-weight from overweight saying the previous bullish scenario for double-digit operating margins by FY26 is off the table.
  • Intuit shares (INTU) decline 6.1% ahead of the bell after the tax software company’s tepid forecast overshadowed an otherwise strong fourth quarter report.
  • Ross Stores shares (ROST) rise 2.7% after the retailer posted earnings per share for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate after better-than-expected tariff-related costs.
  • Workday shares (WDAY) drop 5.1% after the human-resources software company reported second-quarter professional services adjusted gross profit that missed estimates. The company also announced it has agreed to acquire Paradox.
  • Zoom Communications shares (ZM) rise 5.0% in premarket trading on Friday after the video conferencing company raised its revenue guidance for the full year, beating the average analyst estimate.
  • Trucking stocks might be active on Friday after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that US will halt issuance of worker visas for commercial truck drivers. Watch: Saia, Old Dominion Freight Line, Knight-Swift Transportation and JB Hunt.

A selloff in big tech this week halted the record-breaking rally in US stocks, ahead of Powell’s latest policy blueprint, which will signal whether the Fed will stay cautious on inflation, which is showing signs of stickiness, or tilt toward supporting a softer labor market. A Bloomberg equal-weighted index of the Mag 7 has dropped 3.4% since Monday, putting it on track for its steepest weekly decline since April’s market rout.

The stakes are heightened by pressure from the Trump administration to cut rates and growing divisions within the Fed’s rate-setting committee. To keep his options open, Powell may emphasize that the Fed’s September move will be guided by employment and inflation figures set for release early next month. Swaps have reduced the odds of aggressive near-term easing, now pricing about a 65% chance of a cut next month and fewer than two moves this year. Little more than a week ago, markets were betting on a full quarter-point cut in September, with some traders even positioning for a half-point move. 

Powell is due to speak at 10 a.m. New York time (full preview here). A hawkish speech is expected to weigh on shorter-maturity government bond yields. It could also add pressure to the recent series of large options market trades, which are positioned for an outsized rate cut next month and a total of 75 basis points in reductions by year-end.

“If the Fed doesn’t cut in September, markets will drop because they’re expecting the Fed to do something. If they cut too much, markets may take it as a sign that the Fed is losing its independence, which may trigger much higher inflation,” said Joachim Klement, a strategist at Panmure Liberum. “It’s like Goldilocks with two bears and a bull.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rises 0.2%, led by gains in chemical, health care and auto names. Paper and forestry stocks rise after a report that Suzano will increase pulp prices, while Akzo Nobel gained after activist investor Cevian Capital built a stake in the company. Polish banks plunge after the country’s government announced plans to raise corporate taxes on lenders. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

  • Akzo Nobel gains as much 5.4% after activist investor Cevian Capital acquired a 3% stake in the company, putting its weight behind a strategy overhaul at the struggling Dulux paintmaker
  • Hensoldt and RENK gain as much as 4.5% and 1.1% after being upgraded to neutral from sell at Citi, with the broker expecting the companies to benefit from Germany’s increased defense spending
  • European forestry stocks are rising on Friday after a report that Suzano will increase pulp prices starting in September; Metsa Board shares rise as much as 4.7% and Stora Enso as much as 3.6%
  • Standard Chartered gains as much as 3.5% after the US Department of Justice rejected claims by two whistleblowers that it failed to properly investigate allegations of sanctions violations by the bank, the lender said
  • Morgan Advanced Materials shares rise as much as 5.1%, the most in more than a month, after the materials and components firm agreed to sell its MMS business unit, including 75% shareholding in MCIL
  • Polish banks are among the worst performers in Europe on Friday morning after the country’s Finance Ministry announced plans to raise corporate taxes on lenders to help ease pressure on a strained budget
  • Dino Polska shares drop as much as 8.4%, briefly hitting their lowest level in over four months, after the Polish supermarket chain reported results below expectations for the second quarter, according to analysts
  • Aspen shares slide as much as 16% in Johannesburg, to its lowest intraday level since April 2020, after the pharmaceutical company said it expects its full-year normalized headline EPS to come in below analyst expectations
  • Deutsche Post shares fall as much as 1.5% after Kepler Cheuvreux lowered its recommendation to hold from buy saying the firm will struggle to achieve its Ebit guidance of more than €6 billion

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks crept higher, as a rally in Chinese and South Korean shares helped offset losses in Taiwan and India. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.1%, with TSMC among the biggest drags while Tencent supported the regional benchmark. Equities in South Korea gained ahead of President Lee Jae Myung’s visit to Japan. Vietnam’s main equity gauge dropped 2.5%, and Australian shares also fell. A measure of onshore Chinese stocks recorded its biggest weekly rise since November. Gains in local chipmakers provided an added tailwind Friday after a report that US rival Nvidia has instructed component makers to stop production related to its H20 AI chips. Shares also advanced in Hong Kong. Next week will see central bank policy decisions in South Korea and the Philippines.

In FX, the Dollar extended yesterday’s gains overnight and is marginally outperforming across most of the G10 complex as NY sits down. The Norwegian krone is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.3% against the greenback. The yen also weakens 0.2%. The Dollar index continued to rally overnight, now at its highest point in two weeks. USDJPY is up 21bps to ~148.75 after Japan’s national CPI data for Jul came in cooler than expectations at +3.1% on headline. And the EUR is mostly unchanged on the day, with mixed signals overnight from data (German Q2 GDP contracted but eurozone wages are up 4% YoY). No major data releases in the US today; all eyes are on Fed Chair Powell at 10AM as well as other speakers at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

In rates, treasuries inch lower, with US 10-year yields rising 1 bp to 4.34%. The 2-year yield is now at the highest level since the beginning of the month at 3.80%, as inflation and price data curbed cuts priced into the next few meetings.  There is little price action in USTs overnight after yesterday's sell-off as the market awaits Powell's speech later this morning. Yesterday, we saw 3bps of cuts priced out of the September meeting, down to a 70% chance of a 25bps cut at the meeting. Gilts underperform, pushing UK 10-year borrowing costs up 3 bps to 4.76% despite today's UK Retails Sales print being delayed until September 5th. JGBs are higher across the curve after inflation data continues to sustain the markets expectations for a rate hike by the BOJ. In terms of flows, we saw two way interest in September FOMC, and flattening of the nominal curve. 

In credit, macro credit is opening the final session of the week just a touch firmer in sympathy with equity futures in the green and European CDS index spreads largely flat. Risk continued to trade soft yesterday for the fourth session in a row. CDX HY came a touch under pressure with risk generically offered, while there was further negative gamma buying of CDX IG protection into the spread widening. FM was the most active community in vol yesterday, leaning generally better buyers of IG vol, while HY vol was offered by both FM and RM. All eyes and ears will be on Powell this morning (10am ET) with any hawkish tone expected to put pressure on the front end of the curve and synthetic credit spreads.

In commodities, oil prices are steady, with WTI crude futures near $63.50 a barrel. Spot gold falls $10.

Looking at today's US calendar, there are no scheduled events. The Fed speaker slate also includes Boston Fed President Collins at 9am and Cleveland Fed President Hammack at 11:30am; hawkish comments by Hammack on Thursday pushed yields to session highs

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 mini +0.2%
  • Nasdaq 100 mini +0.1%
  • Russell 2000 mini +0.5%
  • Stoxx Europe 600 +0.2%
  • DAX little changed, CAC 40 +0.2%
  • 10-year Treasury yield +1 basis point at 4.34%
  • VIX -0.1 points at 16.53
  • Bloomberg Dollar Index little changed at 1211.1
  • euro little changed at $1.1598
  • WTI crude little changed at $63.48/barrel

Top Overnight News

  • Fed officials are reportedly readying to quietly pull back from the signature Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) policy innovation announced five years ago in which they focused on the risks brought on by near-zero interest rates and low prices, with officials to abandon that approach as it is now seen as no longer relevant given the backdrop of high and more volatile inflation. According to Nick "Nikileaks" Timiraos noted that Powell is expected to unveil the shift at Jackson Hole on Friday, although changes won’t impact near-term policy decisions and are instead part of the framework the Fed uses to interpret its mandate inflation and employment mandates: WSJ
  • Nvidia asked suppliers Samsung and Amkor to stop production related to its H20 AI chip after Beijing urged local firms to avoid using it, The Information reported. CEO Jensen Huang reiterated the processor has no security backdoors. Nvidia shares fell premarket (NVDA -110bps). BBG
  • The Trump-Putin Alaska summit followed by the visit of European leaders at the White House were supposed to jump-start momentum to end the Russia-Ukraine war. A week later we are back at the same old stand, as Vladimir Putin is playing familiar tricks and showing no serious interest in a deal. The question is what President Trump will do about it. WSJ
  • Elon Musk unsuccessfully tried to enlist Mark Zuckerberg in his unsolicited bid for OpenAI this year. BBG
  • Trump said the US is leading the AI race and that AI is the hottest thing in decades.
  • Trump's administration reportedly considers a plan to reallocate USD 2bln in CHIPS Act funding for critical minerals and aims to give Commerce Secretary Lutnick greater oversight of minerals financing decisions, according to Reuters citing sources.
  • Rubio said the US is pausing all issuances of worker visas for commercial truck drivers with immediate effect. It was separately reported that President Trump's administration said it is reviewing all 55mln people with US visas for potential deportable violations, according to AP.
  • Austan Goolsbee called the recent spike in services inflation “dangerous,” but hopes it proves a blip. He also said the September meeting will be “live.” Susan Collins told the WSJ a rate cut may be appropriate if labor market weakness outweighs inflation risks. BBG
  • The US won’t demand equity stakes from chipmakers including TSMC and Micron, which are expanding in the US, a person familiar said. BBG
  • Euro-zone negotiated wages jumped 4% from a year ago, the ECB said, supporting its caution on further reducing interest rates. BBG
  • Japan’s national CPI for Jul came in at +3.1% headline (down from +3.3% in June and inline w/the Street) while the core number (ex-food and energy) was flat at +3.4% (also inline w/the Street) BBG
  • Germany’s economic output shrank by more than initially estimated in the second quarter, with industry faring worse than expected as U.S. tariffs hurt exports. Germany’s final Q2 GDP report is revised lower from the preliminary reading (now -0.3% vs. the prior -0.1%). WSJ
  • Fed's Collins (2025 voter) signalled an openness for a rate cut as soon as next month amid labor market concerns and flagged that higher tariffs might squeeze consumers’ purchasing power, which could weaken spending. Furthermore, Collins said she expects inflation to continue rising through the end of the year before resuming a decline in 2026, according to a Wall Street Journal article that noted divisions grow inside the Fed ahead of the September rate cut decision and cited Fed's Hammack (2026 voter) opposing cuts due to rising inflation.
  • Fed's Goolsbee (2025 voter) said the September FOMC meeting is a live meeting and the Fed has been getting mixed messages on the economy, while he added that the most recent inflation data wasn't great and the Fed still has time to take in more data. Goolsbee responded he doesn't want to get his hands tied, when asked about a September rate cut, as well as commented that a rise in services inflation is a dangerous data point and reacting to a stagflation shock is very difficult. Furthermore, he said central bank independence is critically important, and that tariff increases don't seem close to being done and risk persistent inflation.

Trade/Tariffs

  • Chinese President Xi is unlikely to attend ASEAN Leaders' Summit in October, "dashing hopes of a meeting with US President Trump at the summit"; while Premier Li is set to represent China, according to two regional sources cited by Reuters.
  • South Korea's Foreign Minister Cho is expected to meet with US Secretary of State Rubio as early as today before the Trump summit with South Korea President Lee, according to Yonhap. South Korean top security adviser confirms discussions with US on increasing defence spending, citing NATO framework as reference; said US investment and weapons purchases are under review. In talks about nuclear power cooperation with the US.
  • South Korean top security adviser confirms discussions with US on increasing defence spending, citing NATO framework as reference; said US investment and weapons purchases are under review.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed amid cautiousness heading into Fed Chair Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole and following the subdued handover from Wall St, where participants digested a slew of data and mostly hawkish Fed comments. ASX 200 marginally declined with price action choppy around the 9,000 focal point as participants continue to mull over the latest earnings releases. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses with participants indecisive after recent yen weakness and somewhat mixed Japanese inflation data, which mostly matched estimates, aside from the slightly hotter-than-expected Core CPI reading. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were kept afloat with strength seen following recent earnings releases and with chipmakers supported after Beijing summoned Chinese tech companies to discuss their use of NVIDIA (NVDA) chips and encourage them to use more homegrown options, while NVIDIA ordered a halt to H20 production following China’s directive against purchases.

Top Asian News

  • Japan 2026 budget requests to total around JPY 120tln, according to Kyodo.
  • China's Industry Ministry said it has issued interim measures for controlling and managing rare earth mining, smelting, and separation.
  • PBoC seeks feedback on draft regulations for interbank FX market.

European stocks (STOXX 600 +0.1%) are little changed, albeit with a positive bias amid a lack of newsflow into Fed Chair Powell’s speech in the European afternoon. A bout of risk aversion, with no specific fundamental driver, was seen pre-cash open. Nonetheless, this did little to inflict sustained pressure on European bourses, which have been edging higher since the lacklustre open. European sectors opened mostly in the red after a quiet open. However, positivity has since dominated across the board as sentiment improved. Chemicals sits at the top, led by Akzo Nobel (+5%), after the FT reported that Activist Cevian acquired a more than 3% (EUR 300ln) stake in the company. Banks also underperform, though they are off their worst levels; this comes after Bloomberg reported that Poland is planning to increase corporate income tax for banks, proposing to increase the tax to 30% from 19%.

Top European News

  • German Economy Minister said Q2 GDP figures show "urgent need for action"; Further and courageous reforms are unavoidable to make the German economy competitive.

FX

  • DXY is firmer on Friday in the run-up to Fed Chair Powell's speech at 15:00BST /10:00 EDT, which is expected to see a text release. Attention will focus on whether Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks indicate any shift in views since recent US data and if he signals a September rate cut, which markets price at ~70% probability. DXY trades in a 98.58-98.83 intraday range after finding support at the 50 DMA (at 98.09 today) earlier in the week. Powell aside, there will be commentary from Collins and Hammack.
  • Softer in tandem with the firmer Dollar. EUR remains subdued by the diminishing optimism surrounding Russia-Ukraine, in which US President Trump said, "we will know in about two weeks regarding Russia-Ukraine". Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia's overnight attacks show that Moscow is trying to avoid the need for meetings aimed at ending the war. On the data front, German GDP for Q2 was revised lower across the board, albeit this prompted little EUR move at the time, with eyes turning to Fed Chair Powell's speech at 15:00 BST for a dollar-induced impulse. EUR/USD currently sits in a 1.1583-1.1668 range.
  • Choppy trade overall in which USD/JPY initially extended on Thursday's advances overnight after returning to the 148.00 territory and was unfazed by the Japanese inflation data, in which Core CPI printed firmer-than-expected. Inflows into the JPY were seen around 15 minutes before the European equity cash open, in tandem with some broader risk aversion despite a lack of fresh catalysts at the time, though it was short-lived. USD/JPY trades in a 148.27-148.77 parameter.
  • Not much in the way of Sterling-specific catalysts nor newsflow, with Cable moving in tandem with the Dollar ahead of a long weekend (UK bank holiday on Monday).
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1321 vs exp. 7.1871 (Prev. 7.1287).

Fixed Income

  • USTs are flat and have been trading in a very narrow 111-16 to 111-20 range, as traders await an appearance from Fed Chair Powell at 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT. On that, focus will be on whether Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks indicate any shift in views since recent US data and if he signals a September rate cut, which markets price at ~70% probability. In terms of price action, currently contained in a minuscule 4 tick range, and within the confines made in the prior session.
  • Bunds are also flat/incrementally firmer and trade in a very narrow 128.94 to 129.12 range; the trough today was made in the moments after the release of German GDP revisions, which were lower than the prelim; Q/Q revised down to 0.2% (prev. 0.4%) whilst the Y/Y metric declined 0.3% (prev. no growth).
  • Gilts are on the back foot today and underperforming vs peers, albeit within narrow ranges. Nothing really fresh driving things at the moment for UK paper, but perhaps as fiscal-related fears resurge into the Autumn Budget. From a yield perspective, the 10yr has been knocking on the door of the 4.75% mark; traders tout levels above 4.80% as the “danger zone” for Chancellor Reeve’s and her “black hole”.

Commodities

  • Modest gains across the crude complex despite the firmer Dollar and alongside the choppy mood across the stock market, with equity bourses swinging from modest losses to mild gains. Upside in the crude complex comes amid diminishing optimism surrounding Russia-Ukraine, in which US President Trump said, "We will know in about two weeks regarding Russia-Ukraine". Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia's overnight attacks show that Moscow is trying to avoid the need for meetings aimed at ending the war. On that note, the Hungarian Foreign Minister said oil deliveries to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline have been halted due to attacks near the Russia-Belarus border. Deliveries seem to be suspended for at least five days, according to reports. WTI currently resides in a 62.05-62.68/bbl range while Brent sits in a USD 67.44-67.95/bbl range.
  • Mostly subdued trade across precious metals amid the firmer Dollar as participants look ahead to Fed Chair Powell's speech at 15:00BST /10:00 EDT which is expected to see a text release. Spot gold trades under its 50 DMA (3,346.01) in a USD 3,325.38-3,340.14/oz range.
  • Mixed within narrow ranges amid a lack of pertinent drivers this morning ahead of risk events. 3M LME copper prices reside in a USD 9,714.05-9,781.00/t range.
  • Hungary and Slovakia call on European Commission to guarantee energy supply security. As a consequence, deliveries seem to be suspended for at least five days.
  • Germany said there is no impact on German energy supply security from the Druzhba pipeline disruption.

Geopolitics: Middle East

  • Iran's Foreign Minister said he will have a joint phone call with French, British and German counterparts on Friday to discuss nuclear talks and sanctions, according to IRNA.
  • "Israeli Defence Minister: We have approved the army's plans to eliminate Hamas and evacuate the population in Gaza", according to Al Arabiya.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

  • Hungarian Foreign Minister said oil deliveries to Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline have been halted due to attacks near the Russia-Belarus border.
  • North Korean leader Kim lauded military officers who participated in overseas military operations as heroes and said soldiers at Kursk proved the might of the North Korean military in the world's eyes, according to KCNA.
  • Russia conducts naval exercises in the Baltic Sea, according to the defence ministry.

Geopolitics: Other 

  • China condemned US military build-up off Venezuela coast as foreign interference in regional affairs, according to Fox News. China's Concord Resources plans to invest over USD 1bln in two oilfields in Venezuela, according to Reuters sources, and plans to produce 60k BPD by end-2026.

US Event Calendar

  • Nothing scheduled

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The theme of “good news is bad news” returned to markets yesterday following a strong US PMI release. This led investors to dial back expectations of Fed rate cuts, which sent 10yr Treasury yields +3.7bps higher and left the S&P 500 (-0.40%) posting a 5th consecutive decline for the first time since early January. That leaves investors in a jittery mood going into the Jackson Hole Symposium that kicks off in full today withFed Chair Powell making a speech at 10am EST (3pm LDN) on the US “Economic outlook and framework review”.

Starting with the data, the flash US PMIs for August exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing index (53.3 vs 49.7 expected) rebounding to its highest level since May 2022, while services (55.4 vs 54.2 exp, 55.7 prev.) was resilient at strong levels. The details were also on the hawkish side, with the employment component edging up to its highest since January and the composite output price index rising to 59.3, its highest in three years. Other data was a bit more mixed, with existing home sales rising in July (+4.01m vs +3.92m exp.) but initial and continuing jobless claims moving higher, with initial claims up to +235k in the week ending August 16 (+225k exp).

With the PMIs painting a picture of a resilient US economy with ongoing inflationary risks, markets lowered the probability of a rate cut in September to 72%, its lowest since the weak jobs report on August 1 and down from being fully priced after last week’s CPI print. Bonds also fell, with yields on the 2yr (+4.5bps to 3.79%) and 10yr (+3.7bps to 4.33%) Treasuries moving higher. Equities similarly saw a soft day, with the S&P 500 down -0.40% and the Mag-7 (-0.54%) also posting a 5th consecutive decline. Meta fell -1.15% after it reported a freeze in AI hiring. Unlike the previous couple of sessions the decline was a broad-based one, with more than two-thirds of the S&P 500 down on the day, led by the defensive utilities (-0.71%) and consumer staples (-1.18%) sectors. The slump in the latter was mostly due to Walmart (-4.49%), which hit a rare miss in its earnings yesterday amid higher insurance claims and restructuring costs.

The paring back of rate cut expectations also came amid a pretty patient tone from current Fed officials. Cleveland President Fed Hammack said that the bank’s biggest concern is staying “laser-focused” on inflation, adding that she would not support a rate cut if the meeting was tomorrow. Kansas Fed President Schmid suggested that inflation risks were marginally higher than risks to the labour market, while Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called the last inflation print a “dangerous data point” though he saw the upcoming September meeting as a live one. These comments contrasted with those made by former St Louis Fed President James Bullard, who called for 100bps of rate cuts by the end of this yearstarting with a cut in September. In an interview with Fox Business,Bullard also confirmed that he’d been in contact with Treasury Secretary Bessent about his candidacy for the Fed Chair role.

We’ll learn more on the Fed’s thinking today at Jackson Hole, with all eyes on Powell’s speech at 10am EST. The last time we heard Powell speak at the July FOMC, the Chair was notably hawkish on the labour market, but in light of the July downward payroll revision, we expect a somewhat different tone today. Investors will be keenly watching whether Powell places more emphasis on weaker payrolls versus more stable measures of labour market slack and still solid activity and inflation data. In case you missed it, see our US economists’ preview of what to expect from Jackson Hole here. The topic of Fed independence will also linger over Jackson Hole, with DoJ official Ed Martin yesterday urging Chair Powell to remove Governor Lisa Cook from the board and saying that he intended to investigate her over allegations of mortgage fraud that surfaced on Wednesday.

Turning to Europe, we also got better-than-anticipated composite PMI prints in the Euro area (51.1 vs 50.6 exp, 50.9 prev), with both France (49.8 vs 48.5 exp) and Germany (50.9 vs 50.2 exp) moving higher, as well as in the UK (53.6 vs 51.8 exp). In the euro area the improvement was led by the manufacturing sector, but in the UK it was due to a jump in the services PMI to a 12-month high of 53.6. These were the first PMI prints after the July EU-US trade deal so signs of improved manufacturing activity will be welcome, though tariff volatility could distort the PMIs’ accuracy. In any case, the data led European sovereign bonds to reverse the previous day’s rally, with 10yr gilt (+5.7bps to 4.73%) leading the rise in yields. 10yr OATs (+4.9bps) and bunds (+3.9bps) also sold off, as pricing of ECB rate cuts this year ticked down by -3.9bps to just 9bps.

Despite those positive readings, European stocks saw declines for much of the day, though the Stoxx 600 was back to unchanged by the close and a late rally helped the FTSE 100 (+0.23%) to a new all-time high. The DAX (+0.07%) and FTSE MIB (+0.35%) also advanced, but the CAC (-0.44%) fell back. Healthcare stocks (+0.43%) outperformed within the Stoxx 600 as a joint EU-US statement formalising their July trade deal confirmed that tariffs on pharmaceuticals, chips and lumber will not exceed 15%. The statement also outlined that European cars will face a 15% tariff (down from 27.5% currently) if the EU eliminates tariffs on US industrial goods, and confirmed exemptions for some goods including aircraft and generic drugs.

European markets weren’t helped by waning optimism on Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov accused the US and Europe of undermining progress made at the Trump-Putin Alaska Summit and suggested that security guarantees for Ukraine should be based on the 2022 Istanbul talks. At the time, Russia had proposed an arrangement that would give Moscow a de facto veto over intervention in Ukraine, which is clearly unacceptable to Kyiv. With Lavrov also deflecting on the proposed Putin-Zelenskiy meeting, Ukrainian bonds fell back to levels seen just over a week ago before the Trump-Putin summit. Meanwhile, Rheinmetall rose +3.27%, erasing most of its -5.5% decline over the previous two days. And oil prices advanced, with Brent crude up +1.24% to $67.67/bbl as White House trade advisor Peter Navarro said he expected the additional 25% tariffs on India for buying Russian oil to come into force as scheduled on August 27.

Asian equity markets are trading mostly higher this morning despite the weak handover from Wall Street. The KOSPI (+0.69%) is enjoying a bright start, building on the previous session’s gains, while the Hang Seng (+0.33%), the CSI (+1.18%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.67%) are also all decently higher. Sectorally, the Hang Seng Tech index (+1.75%) is leading the way, perhaps benefitting from a report by The Information tech news outlet that Nvidia has told component suppliers to stop production related to its H20 chip that’s been designed specifically for the Chinese market. Nvidia’s shares fell by close to 2% in alternative trading on the news, and NASDAQ futures (-0.10%) are marginally trailing those on the S&P 500 (-0.02%) as a result.

Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.13%) is down marginally as Japan’s consumer inflation saw a slight moderation but stayed well above the BOJ’s 2% target in July. Headline CPI eased from 3.3% to 3.1% yoy, in line with expectations, but the core (ex fresh food) CPI was a touch above expectations of (+3.1% vs +3.0% exp). The core-core CPI reading that excludes both fresh food and energy prices remained steady at +3.4% y/y in July, suggesting still sticky underlying inflation momentum. Money markets are pricing a 53% chance of a rate hike from the BoJ over the next two meetings, inching a little higher overnight, while 10yr JGB yields are +0.5bps higher at 1.62%, a new post-2008 high.

To the day ahead now, Fed Chair Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium, with a slew of other central bank comments expected from the event. Data releases include the UK’s July retail sales, France’s August business confidence, July retail sales, and Canada’s June retail sales.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 08:35

Activities of U.S. Multinational Enterprises, 2023

BEA -

Worldwide employment by U.S. multinational enterprises decreased 0.4 percent to 43.9 million workers in 2023 (preliminary) from 44.1 million workers in 2022 (revised), according to statistics released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on the operations and finances of U.S. parent companies and their foreign affiliates. Full Text

Categories -

Realtor.com Reports Median listing price was flat year over year

Calculated Risk -

What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. 
Here is their weekly report: Weekly Housing Trends: Latest Data as of Aug. 16
Active inventory climbed 20.9% year over year

The number of homes active on the market climbed 20.9% year over year, easing slightly compared with the previous week for the ninth consecutive week. Nevertheless, last week was the 93rd consecutive week of annual gains in inventory. There were roughly 1.1 million homes for sale last week, marking the 16th week in a row over the million-listing threshold. Active inventory is growing significantly faster than new listings, an indication that more homes are sitting on the market for longer.

New listings—a measure of sellers putting homes up for sale—rose 4.9% year over year

New listings rose 4.9% last week compared with the same period last year, a lower rate compared with the previous week, as the number of new listings remains below the spring and early summer norm. Homeowners are showing less urgency to list, as rising inventory and cautious buyer activity continue to temper the market.

The median listing price was flat year over year

The median list price was flat compared with the same week in 2024. The median list price per square foot, which accounts for changes in home size, rose 0.1% year over year, extending its nearly two-year growth streak, though this represents the slowest growth rate over that period.

Criminal Investigators: Program-Wide Evaluations and Clear Oversight Responsibilities Could Enhance Training Programs

GAO -

What GAO Found Criminal investigators at military criminal investigative organizations (MCIO) must complete federal and service-specific criminal investigative training (see figure). MCIOs include the Department of the Army Criminal Investigation Division, Naval Criminal Investigative Service, and Air Force Office of Special Investigations—within the Department of Defense (DOD)—as well as the Coast Guard Investigative Service within the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). Training for Military Criminal Investigative Organizations' Criminal Investigators MCIOs track the completion of some service-specific and advanced criminal investigative training to determine investigators' progress through training. However, MCIOs do not have guidance with requirements or procedures to track completion of criminal investigative training. As a result, MCIOs may not have full information on investigators' completed training. Tracking training completion ensures compliance with requirements and allows organizations to track progress consistent with identified goals and objectives. Without such information, MCIOs may not have complete information on the qualifications met or retained by their criminal investigators. MCIOs evaluate their service-specific basic training courses through periodic course reviews and feedback collected from participants and their supervisors. However, MCIOs do not conduct program-wide evaluations to determine the effectiveness of their criminal investigative training. Plans for regular program-wide evaluation with time frames for review, measures of effectiveness, and documented results would provide MCIOs with the ability to demonstrate how their criminal investigative training programs develop criminal investigators and contribute to MCIOs' missions. DOD has multiple offices with responsibilities for law enforcement and criminal investigative programs. However, DOD does not regularly monitor and evaluate criminal investigative training programs because responsibility for oversight remains unclear. Without final guidance designating DOD offices' responsibilities for criminal investigative training programs, DOD oversight of the MCIOs' investigative training programs may be incomplete, unclear, or delayed. This could limit DOD's ability to support MCIOs as they develop their programs to ensure criminal investigators are fully qualified to carry out their investigative missions. Why GAO Did This Study Criminal investigators at MCIOs investigate serious and complex crimes involving military service members and civilian personnel. An independent committee, established by the Army in response to the disappearance and murder of a Fort Hood, Texas, soldier, identified deficiencies in criminal investigators' experience and training to handle complex cases and accomplish investigative missions. Senate Report 118-58, accompanying a bill for the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2024, includes a provision for GAO to review criminal investigators' training. This report assesses the extent to which (1) MCIOs provide and track the completion of investigative training, (2) MCIOs evaluate investigative training effectiveness, and (3) DOD oversees criminal investigative training. GAO reviewed relevant policies, analyzed data and documents on MCIO training, and interviewed cognizant MCIO, DOD, and DHS officials.

Categories -

Suspending De Minimis Exemption Next Week Will Cause "Ripple Effect" Across Global Postal Supply Lines

Zero Hedge -

Suspending De Minimis Exemption Next Week Will Cause "Ripple Effect" Across Global Postal Supply Lines

President Trump's elimination of the de minimis duty-free rule at the end of next week is set to fuel a global postal bottleneck, more specifically, with U.S. inbound packages valued at or over $100 likely facing delays as shippers scramble to figure out how the tariff collection process will work. 

In just one week, President Trump's executive order will end duty-free de minimis treatment for low-value imports (items valued less than $800), closing a loophole long exploited by China to flood the U.S. with low-cost junk. The administration stated in late July that the primary goal is to end the flow of deadly synthetic opioids hidden within these small packages. Starting next week, all foreign shipments, except verified gifts under $100, will face new duties

Under the new rules, there is quite a bit of confusion about how the new duties will be collected and how to submit the required data. 

A report from Bloomberg lists a number of U.S. inbound postal supply lines beginning to experience bottlenecks because of the tariff collection confusion:

  • Asia: Korea Post and SingPost are halting standard parcel services, while Japan warns of delays.

  • Europe: Norway, Finland, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, and the UK are suspending or limiting services; Deutsche Post/DHL halted business parcels via postal networks.

  • Australia: Transit shipments through Australia to the U.S. are paused, though direct U.S. deliveries remain.

Multinational logistics company DHL cited confusion over how duties will be collected in a new letter to customers on Friday. The shipper remains operational. 

"Key questions remain unresolved, particularly regarding how and by whom customs duties will be collected in the future, what additional data will be required, and how the data transmission to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection will be carried out," DHL stated in the letter. 

It's not just DHL; other shippers, including FedEx and UPS, are figuring out how to collect the new tariff fee. Online sellers are also scrambling to comply.  

Millions of low-value packages per day will lose their duty-free treatment by the end of next week and be subject to standard tariff rates or temporary flat fees of $80 to $200 per item for six months.

For more details on rates. Customs and Border Protection outlined last week in a bulletin how the flat fees would be calculated, corresponding to the countries' tariff rates. 

"It is a real concern that the dominoes are falling and there will be a ripple effect where more and more posts announce that they will be suspending packages to the US," warned Kate Muth, executive director of the International Mailers Advisory Group, which represents the U.S. international mailing and shipping industry, quoted by Bloomberg. 

 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 08:00

Wild Brawl Breaks Out On Carnival Cruise 'Over Chicken Tenders'

Zero Hedge -

Wild Brawl Breaks Out On Carnival Cruise 'Over Chicken Tenders'

It was anything but smooth sailing aboard the Carnival Sunshine when a massive brawl broke out between furious passengers around 2AM Monday - and the whole thing allegedly started over chicken tenders.

Disturbing footage captured by Bronx content creator Mike Terra shows about two dozen passengers trading blows, tumbling to the floor, and hurling shoes across the deck as shocked onlookers screamed for security.

Where the fuck is security?!” one frantic bystander yells in the clip as chaos erupts around them.

In the footage, multiple Carnival security officers, appearing quite fatigued, can be seen desperately trying to separate the combatants - but one overwhelmed guard can even be seen backing away and calling for backup as the brawl spiraled out of control.

Over chicken tenders is crazy!” said Terra, who posted the now-viral video to Instagram (which won't embed, sorry Mike):

He later clarified that while the viral rumor pegged the fight on a late-night food line dispute, the situation may have been “more” than just chicken tenders - though the exact spark remains unclear.

We weren’t close enough to know why [the fight] really started, we just knew they were in line for food,” Terra told The Post.

* * *

You can support ZeroHedge with the purchase of a high-quality, sharp, ZeroHedge Multitool.

Click pic... add to cart... enjoy Multitool! Satisfaction guaranteed or your money back.

Terra joked about the Carnival cruise line’s reputation, writing on Instagram; “I always hear Carnival is ghetto/ratchet … I been cruising for years but this my 1st time seeing some action on a ship I was on,” he wrote, adding: “YNs was tripping.

What are YNs?

h/t Capital.news

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 07:45

If you Have Not Experienced it yet? Expect Slower Mail Delivery

Angry Bear -

This commentary by Steve Hutkins outlines the plan Louis Dejoy put in place as the US Postmaster General. I am not too sure where the plan is at in actions at this time. If you are experiencing slower mail delivery, then it has been implemented in your area. Citified areas are less likely to experience […]

The post If you Have Not Experienced it yet? Expect Slower Mail Delivery appeared first on Angry Bear.

Wuhan Researcher Accused Of Smuggling Biological Material Pleads No Contest

Zero Hedge -

Wuhan Researcher Accused Of Smuggling Biological Material Pleads No Contest

Authored by Eva Fu via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A Chinese researcher accused of smuggling biological materials into a U.S. university lab has pleaded no contest to four charges.

Chinese researcher Han Chengxuan. Sanilac County Sheriff’s Office

Han Chengxuan, a doctoral candidate from the Chinese city of Wuhan who sent multiple packages containing concealed biological materials, pleaded to three smuggling charges and to lying to U.S. customs officials, the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan announced.

Han is studying at the College of Life Science and Technology in the Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan and has co-authored two articles relating to the use of roundworms, known scientifically as C. elegans. She told federal agents that she arrived at the Detroit Metropolitan Airport on a J1 visa in June, intending to start a one-year research project at a University of Michigan lab.

Han estimates that she has sent between five and 10 packages, with several lost on the way, according to the federal complaint.  

U.S. customs intercepted four such shipments between September 2024 and March 2025, addressed to individuals associated with a University of Michigan laboratory with content varying from plasmids—DNA fragments often used to induce genetic modification of organisms—and petri dishes for growing earthworms, the court filing said.

She is the third Chinese researcher facing charges over smuggling materials for biological research. The other two, the Justice Department alleged, attempted to smuggle in a crop-killing fungus for research use at the University of Michigan.

Prosecutors alleged that Han made repeated efforts to mask her actions both while shipping the goods and while speaking with the interrogators.

During an interview with customs agents upon arrival, she initially denied knowledge about sending anything to one recipient until officers brought up specific packages, the complaint stated.

A transcript of the conversation showed that Han described the petri dishes as a water solution containing sodium oxide and sugar, stating: “These ingredients exist in fruit jelly.”

One of the shipments, the prosecutors said, was a book with an envelope with suspected biological materials concealed inside. When confronted, Han initially said she designed a picture game and wanted to send it to the lab associate “to give him a surprise,” according to the court documents.

Omitted in Han’s early statement was the plasmids in the envelope, which she only acknowledged upon close questioning, the prosecutors said.

She told the agents that the recipient and she were classmates in the same major and believed that “he will understand my design.”

Han deleted content on her electronic devices three days before arriving in the United States, stating she wanted to “start fresh,” the federal complaint said.

According to the interview transcripts, Han said that the chat history “takes memory space” and that she cleans messages regularly.

“The University of Michigan invited this Chinese national into our state to be a visiting scholar, where it was going to give her more than $41,000 in a year to do her worm research at the Life Sciences Institute. Something is wrong in Ann Arbor,” said Interim U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Michigan Jerome Gorgon.

Han’s sentencing is set for Sept. 10. If convicted, she faces up to 10 years in prison for smuggling goods into the United States and another five years for making false statements.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 07:20

Tr__p Tariffs, Manufacturing, and Labor – Farm Equipment

Angry Bear -

“John Deere Maintains Profits and Shareholder Value by Whacking Labor,” Angry Bear August 13, 2024 and Kevin Baskins at the Des Moines Register reports on the Deere & Company layoffs across the state of Iowa. Layoffs happen when the economy turns down, companies make mistakes, or when a new competitor hits the market. Just about anything can […]

The post Tr__p Tariffs, Manufacturing, and Labor – Farm Equipment appeared first on Angry Bear.

Nvidia Halts China-Specific H20 AI Chip Production, Information Says

Zero Hedge -

Nvidia Halts China-Specific H20 AI Chip Production, Information Says

Nvidia has instructed key suppliers, Arizona-based Amkor Technology and South Korea's Samsung Electronics, to suspend China-specific H20 AI chip production, according to The Information, citing unidentified sources. The directive comes after Beijing has pressured local companies to avoid using the H-20s for security concerns. 

Nvidia sent its communications this week on the H20 to Arizona-based Amkor Technology and South Korea's Samsung Electronics, according to the two people. Amkor handles the advanced packaging of Nvidia's H20 chips, a process that involves combining multiple components, while Samsung supplies high-bandwidth memory chips for the H20. -The Information

In a statement, Nvidia explained, "We constantly manage our supply chain to address market conditions," adding that "allowing U.S. chips for beneficial commercial business use is good for everyone."

The suspension underscores Nvidia's delicate balancing act in China, following President Trump's reversal of a previous ban on the H20s and his decision to allow sales on the condition that the federal government collect 15% of revenue. However, last month, China's Cyberspace Administration summoned Nvidia officials to address alleged "backdoor" security vulnerabilities in the H20s - claims that CEO Jensen Huang has denied, stressing the chips pose no security risks.

Related:

Amkor, which handles advanced chip packaging, and Samsung, which supplies high-bandwidth memory in the H20 production process, received Nvidia's order to halt production earlier this week. The Information reported that semi-finished H20s are piling up at Amkor. The future of the H20 chip in China remains unclear

Here's Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Kunjan Sobhani and Oscar Hernandez Tejada's first-take: 

Nvidia's decision to halt H20 chip production, as reported by The Information, follows the Chinese government urging local companies to avoid using the chip and creates fresh uncertainty over when Nvidia's China business can recover. We had previously projected H20 shipments to China would resume no earlier than the end of this year. Although a delay might temper optimistic estimates for China, robust US hyperscaler demand and Blackwell adoption should offset the impact on Nvidia this year.

Recall that on July 15, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC, "We don't sell them our best stuff, not our second-best stuff, not even our third-best," referring to the H20 chips. Chinese officials reportedly viewed the remark as "insulting."

Shares in Nvidia fell about 1% in premarket trading in New York following the news. Shares are still trading near record highs, up 30% year-to-date as of Thursday's close.

Nvidia's decision to halt H20 chip production puts its China market in question - once accounting for 26% of its revenue - but has since tumbled to just 13% amid trade wars and tech restrictions. 

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 06:55

10 Friday AM Reads

The Big Picture -

My end-of-week morning train WFH reads:

The United States Is Southern Now: From booming metros to culture-defining exports, the South has quietly become a demographic powerhouse and a battleground for the country’s identity. (Businessweek)

The Trillion-Dollar AI Bubble Nobody Sees Coming: A single Chinese startup just proved that the emperor has no clothes in Silicon Valley’s AI king… (Technobezz) see also Are we in an AI bubble that’s getting ready to pop? The promised AI revolution isn’t here yet. But it’s a smart bet that productivity gains will follow. (Washington Post)

American Businesses in ‘Survival Mode’ as Trump Tariffs Pile Up: A 90-day pause on additional tariffs on China offers no relief to American companies already facing extraordinarily high import taxes imposed by President Trump. (New York Times)

How Quantum Computing Could Upend Bitcoin: Hackers stand to gain “a superpower.” Will the crypto industry be ready? (Barron’s)

Gamblers Now Bet on AI Models Like Racehorses: Prediction platforms are turning the AI arms race into a high-stakes game. (Wall Street Journal)

Our 10 essential summer podcasts: Today’s political, economic, and social landscape is especially complex. Keeping up with the constant stream of news can be tricky, especially in summer. That’s why we’ve put together a selection – by no means exhaustive – of podcasts, covering economics, finance, and beyond. Each offers valuable insights that help make sense of the present – and perhaps imagine the future. Here are 10 podcasts our team recommends. (Moneyfarm)

How Pickleball Explains American Culture: In 2019, pickleball was half as popular as badminton. Last year, it was more popular than baseball. What does its rise tell us about fads, fitness, and culture? (Derek Thompson)

I witnessed Operation Warp Speed. Trump’s refusal to defend it is baffling. The president deserves an NIH director who champions science rather than dangerous nonsense. (Washington Post)

19 Facts Worth Knowing About George Orwell: “George Orwell” isn’t George Orwell’s real name. That would be Eric Arthur Blair. He took on the pen name in 1933, when he published his first full-length book, “Down and Out in Paris and London.” (Behavioral Scientist)

Steve Buscemi Is Glad He Took That Leap: Born on the unluckiest of days, the 67-year-old has built an enviable roster of affable malcontents. With his debut on Season 2 of “Wednesday,” he adds to his legend. (New York Times)

Be sure to check out our Masters in Business next week with Ellen Zentner, Chief Economic Strategist and Global Head of Thematic and Macro Investing for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. The firm manages over $7 trillion in assets.

 

Why Has Consumer Spending Remained So Resilient? Evidence from Credit Card Data

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

 

Sign up for our reads-only mailing list here.

 

 

The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Women-Only Spa Seeks Re-Hearing In Ninth Circuit Over Admission Of Transgender-Identifying Men

Zero Hedge -

Women-Only Spa Seeks Re-Hearing In Ninth Circuit Over Admission Of Transgender-Identifying Men

Authored by Lear Zhou via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

SAN FRANCISCO—The Olympus Spa, a women-only Korean-style spa in Washington State, which was forced via legal means to allow male customers who identify as women, is seeking re-hearing in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit.

Symbols for male and female in Western Australia on Aug. 15, 2025. Susan Mortimer/The Epoch Times

The case is centered on a state law that bars discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. Many of the services provided at the spa require nudity, and all the onsite staff are female. Allowing a person with male body parts to partake of the services would violate the Christian beliefs of the spa owners, they said.

A May 29 Ninth Circuit opinion by a four-judge panel had already dismissed the spa’s claims that its First Amendment rights had been violated, affirming the decision previously made in a lower court.

The Spa may have other avenues to challenge the enforcement action. But whatever recourse it may have, that relief cannot come from the First Amendment,” the opinion states.

The re-hearing request centered instead on an “expressive association claim,” according to a petition document filed on June 24 and obtained by The Epoch Times.

We respectfully disagree with the Court’s position that there are no First Amendment interests at stake for the Spa,” Kevin Snider, lead attorney of the Pacific Justice Institute representing the plaintiffs, said in an email to The Epoch Times. “Safeguarding the dignity of unclothed women in their intimate spaces implicates the right to association and the free exercise of religion. We are committed to pressing forward to vindicate those rights.”

In late 2020, a man complained to the Washington Human Rights Commission (HRC) that the spa was violating Washington’s Law Against Discrimination (WLAD) by refusing service to man who identified as a transgender woman.

The spa owners refused to change their admission policy, which they said was rooted in Korean tradition and Christian beliefs.

The owners, employees, and patrons of the Olympus Spa launched a lawsuit against the HRC executive director and its civil rights investigator, alleging that the state was infringing on their First Amendment rights to freedom of speech, free exercise of religion, and freedom of association.

Washington District Court Judge Barbara Jacobs Rothstein dismissed the case on June 5, 2023.

Usually public accommodations laws, like Washington State’s anti-discrimination law, must give way where such laws impermissibly burden constitutional rights, according to the Ninth Circuit opinion.

“But this is not such a case,” Ninth Circuit Judge Margaret McKeown wrote in the opinion. “The HRC’s action under WLAD does not impermissibly burden the Spa’s First Amendment rights to free speech, free exercise, or free association.”

The re-hearing petition document states that the Ninth Circuit opinion by the four judges omitted or overlooked the “prominence of the advancement of traditional Korean culture.”

This position improperly constrains expressive association because that liberty interest includes ‘associat[ing] with others in pursuit of a wide variety of political, social, economic, educational, religious, and cultural ends,’” the petition states, adding emphasis to the word “cultural.”

The Ninth Circuit ordered Washington State to submit a written brief in response to the re-hearing petition on July 17, according to Snider.

The Ninth Circuit will decide if it will re-hear the case,” Snider told The Epoch Times. “If they decide not to re-hear the case, then we will file with the Supreme Court.”

One of the defendants, Andreta Armstrong, executive director of the HRC, told The Epoch Times via an email, “I decline to comment on ongoing litigation involving the agency.”

Sun Lee, co-owner and president of the Olympus Spa, told The Epoch Times, “I believe that our case should actually go to the Supreme Court, and then it should be measured by the Constitution, our freedom of speech, and also freedom of religion.”

I’m very worried at this point, how this society goes,” Lee said. “But I’m really hopeful that the Supreme Court or the higher court [will] make a right decision.”

Lee said he has suffered from stress in the past four years since he received a letter from the HRC. He said they have to deal with emails and phone calls related to the issue on a daily basis.

“The model and foundation of our spa is for women to relax and forget about their lives, their daily worries, and they shouldn’t be judged,” Lee said. “But this is under threat.”

He said the spa still does not admit men who identify as transgender women.

The controversy has affected the business, he said. Yearly sales, more than half of which come from traditional Korean scrubbing services, have diminished, said Lee, “not by a lot ... but a certain percentage.”

“I’m really puzzled and struggling with why these simple kinds of boundaries cannot be sustained. And this is not due to hatred or prejudice; this is more like a biologically and psychologically valid response rooted in safety and dignity and privacy,” said Lee.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 06:30

Video Games At 30,000 Feet? Starlink's Airline Rollout Is Making It Reality

Zero Hedge -

Video Games At 30,000 Feet? Starlink's Airline Rollout Is Making It Reality

In-flight Wi-Fi has long been notorious for being slow, spotty, and expensive. Well, that's until Elon Musk's SpaceX Starlink entered the skies three years ago. The low-Earth orbit satellite service has ignited a race among airlines to install high-speed, low-latency terminals, transforming the passenger experience. Now, gaming or even logging into a Bloomberg Terminal mid-flight is possible. 

Bloomberg reports a rapid adoption of Starlink among airlines, including United Airlines, Air France, Qatar Airways, Virgin Atlantic, and now Alaska Air. Sources say British Airways is also in talks to adopt the service, which delivers up to 200 Mbps download, 8 Mbps to 25 Mbps upload, and latency under 99 ms. This is a far cry from the dial-up speeds still common on most commercial jets.

According to the media outlet, Starlink's next target is to be an early mover of high-speed internet for premium Gulf carriers such as Emirates, FlyDubai, Gulf Air, and Saudia. This would be a significant win for the company and game-changing for the massive long-haul fleets. 

Starlink faces fierce global competition from EchoStar, Viasat, SES, and Intelsat. These rivals are defending market share and revamping strategies to strike new deals as the race over the $100 billion satellite communications market accelerates ahead of the 2030s. 

The cost to install a Starlink aviation receiver on a Boeing 737 is approximately $300,000, while a 787 Dreamliner model totals around half a million per aircraft, according to documents reviewed by Bloomberg. Airlines pay upwards of $120 per seat monthly for the service, with an additional $120 for live television. 

What's important to note is that Starlink is a first-mover in the high-speed in-flight Wi-Fi market that airlines are rapidly adopting. Competition from Amazon's Project Kuiper is not even a discussion at the moment. 

At the moment, Starlink remains a division of SpaceX and has not filed for an IPO. No underwriters have been appointed, and there's no confirmed timetable, despite Musk's recent comments about a public offering "at some point in the future." 

Starlink has introduced a new $5-per-month "Standby Mode," giving customers unlimited low-speed data for calls, texts, and instant reactivation during emergencies or in dead zones, according to a new company email.

The feature appears aimed at retaining subscribers who might otherwise cancel month-to-month service and only reactivate when needed. By keeping accounts active, Standby Mode could help stabilize Starlink's subscriber base. This is likely a move that may carry weight ahead of a potential IPO.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 05:45

Earnings Of China's Refining Giant Sinopec Plunge Amid Low Oil Prices, Weaker Fuel Demand

Zero Hedge -

Earnings Of China's Refining Giant Sinopec Plunge Amid Low Oil Prices, Weaker Fuel Demand

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

The largest Chinese and Asian refiner Sinopec reported on Thursday a 36% decline in its first-half profit on the back of lower oil prices and refining margins and weakening domestic fuel demand.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec, as it is more commonly known, booked a profit attributable to shareholders of $3.3 billion (23.75 billion Chinese yuan) for the period January to June 2025, down by 35.9% from the same period last year.

“Dragged by various factors such as the declining international crude oil prices combined with weak chemical margins, the Company’s profitability for the first half significantly decreased year on year,” Sinopec’s chairman Hou Qijun said in a statement accompanying the first-half results.

Sinopec estimates that while China’s natural gas demand rose by 2.1% year-over-year in January to June, domestic consumption of refined petroleum products slumped by 3.6% from a year earlier, “mainly affected by alternative energy.”

China’s gasoline consumption fell by 4.6% and diesel demand decreased by 4.3%, while kerosene consumption rose by 4.2%, Sinopec said.

The domestic demand for major chemical products grew rapidly, with ethylene equivalent consumption up by 10.1% year on year, the Chinese state giant added.

Looking forward, Sinopec expects China’s domestic demand for natural gas and chemical products to increase in the second half of the year, while demand for refined oil products “will be impacted by alternative energy.”

In the refining business, the company vowed to diversify its crude oil resources, dynamically optimize the procurement scale and pace, and reduce procurement costs. That’s likely a hint that it would boost the supply of domestic and cheap foreign crude to process at refineries amid weak margins and weak domestic demand for transportation fuels.

Over the past year, consumption of the road transportation fuels – gasoline and diesel – has been trailing the levels from just two years ago, when China was emerging from nearly three years of Covid-related lockdowns. That’s not only because of the pent-up demand back in 2023. A large part of the lower gasoline and diesel demand is due to the soaring sales of electric passenger cars and trucks and LNG-fueled heavy-duty vehicles.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 05:00

Boeing 737: American Made But Globally Sourced

Zero Hedge -

Boeing 737: American Made But Globally Sourced

The Boeing 737 is often seen as a symbol of American aerospace excellence. But peel back the fuselage and you’ll discover a much more intricate story—one of international collaboration, supply chain complexity, and global interdependence.

The aircraft’s thousands of components are sourced from at least two dozen countries and multiple continents. While Boeing leads final assembly in the United States, the company relies on global partners to provide specialized parts ranging from titanium forgings in Italy to cabin seating in Japan.

This global sourcing strategy, visualized by Julie Peasley and based on data from Air Framer, demonstrates the immense complexity of modern aircraft manufacturing.

Here’s a breakdown of key parts in the Boeing 737 and their country of origin:

Country Aircraft component for Boeing 737 Australia Wing ailerons Austria Blended winglets and split winglets Belgium Engine compressors, oil tank, pump, filter, and valve Belgium Flap/slat mechanisms Canada Communication antennas Canada Airborne communication systems Canada Wing tip panels Canada Wheel well fairings Canada Aircraft doors Canada Cabin curtains Canada Power transmission torque tube drives Canada Inner barrel for engine nacelle inlet Canada Nose landing gear assemblies (titanium components) Canada Electromagnetic indicators and annunciators Canada Winglet and wing components China Forward entry door China Rudder China Flight deck panels China Carbon brake disks China Interior completion of cabin China Vertical fin China Aft fuselage section China Aircraft landing gear France Wing assembly France Bearings France Inflight entertainment France Engine electrical wire harnesses France Titianium/aluminum structural components France Piston rings France Thrust reversers France Autothrottle system France Electrical power contactor France Engine hydromechanical fuel pumps France Wheels France Emergency locator transmitter France Cockpit door surveillance cameras France Structural bulkhead France Standby flight display France Limit and proximity switches France Fasteners Germany Corrosion protecting coatings Germany Cabin exit signs Germany Passenger Seating Germany Cabin galley and stowage bins Germany Cargo sliding carpet system Germany Winglet lightning harness Germany Cabin pressure control system Germany Fuselage anti-collision lights Germany Door locks and latches Germany Ice protection equipment Germany Window seals Germany Forgings, castings and extrusions India Vertical fin structures India Wire harnesses India Strut assemblies Israel Cargo and passenger doors Israel Metal parts and structures Israel Wheel well panels Israel Aluminum and steel for winglet Italy Titanium forgings Italy Rotor blades and stator vane Japan Inboard flaps and flap segment Japan Passenger Seating Japan Lavatory equipment Latvia Arm caps for economy class seats Malaysia Airframe saddle fairing Morocco Wire harnesses Netherlands Galleys, closets, class dividers Netherlands Electrical wiring, wire harnesses, junction boxes Netherlands Laminates for various components Norway Turbine engine vanes and casings Russia Titanium South Africa Vacuum-formed cockpit and cabin assemblies South Africa Precision machined interior linings South Korea Lower door skin, inner skin cover detail South Korea Electronic equipment door South Korea Empennage (737 MAX) South Korea Interior bulkheads South Korea Flap support fairing and winglet South Korea Rear wing spar and jackscrew Spain Flight control surfaces Spain Rudder Spain Sheet metal bending and milling Sweden Engine gearbox bearings Sweden AC/humidity control Switzerland Airborne vibration monitor Taiwan Main landing gear door Taiwan Pressurized doors Taiwan Engine case Turkey Rear fuselage and tail surfaces Turkey Flight deck panels Turkey Wing tips Turkey Structural components Turkey Cabin cabinets Turkey Engine fan cowls UK Thrust reverser actuator UK Flight control actuators UK Blended winglets UK Wing flaps structural ribs and substructures UK Engine sensors, and monitoring UK Nacelle inlet lip skins UK Cockpit voice recorder and flight data recorder UK Extended range auxiliary fuel tank UK Cockpit indicators and switches UK Tires UK Electrical static dischargers UK Aircrew seats and gear drives UK Airborne communication antenna UK Emergency lighting floorpath system UK Flight deck entry video surveillance system UK Emergency locator beacon UK Jet engine rings UK Anti-spall windshields UK Packing and filling material Why Build a Jet Like This?

Commercial aircraft contain millions of precision parts, many made from exotic alloys or advanced composites. No single country holds all that know‑how. Russia’s VSMPO‑AVISMA, for instance, remains the world’s dominant source of aerospace‑grade titanium—a metal prized for its strength‑to‑weight ratio and corrosion resistance.

By tapping specialized suppliers, Boeing keeps costs competitive, earns reciprocal market access abroad, and balances political risk by spreading production across multiple jurisdictions.

Risks of Tariffs and Protectionism

However, this level of globalization exposes manufacturers to geopolitical and economic risks. According to Reuters, aerospace firms have lobbied hard to preserve tariff-free agreements between the U.S. and EU. Even temporary tariffs in past disputes have disrupted delivery schedules and increased costs.

Analysis from Harvard Business School points to rising protectionism as a major threat to supply chain stability. As governments reevaluate trade policies, the world’s major aircraft companies may be forced to rethink their international sourcing models—a costly and complex endeavor.

 

Learn More on the Voronoi App 

Discover more insights about Boeing’s diversified business beyond commercial planes in this related post on Voronoi: Boeing’s Business Is Much More Than Just Commercial Planes.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 03:30

Chinese EV Firm Bets Big On Battery-Swapping Over Battery-Charging

Zero Hedge -

Chinese EV Firm Bets Big On Battery-Swapping Over Battery-Charging

Challenging electric vehicle orthodoxy, US-listed Chinese EV start-up Nio is leading the charge on a different approach to re-energizing vehicles -- having drivers swap out spent batteries rather than recharging them. With swapping stations already up and running in 285 Chinese cities, Nio is betting that consumers will be won over by time savings and cost advantages of battery-swapping. 

The technology is well beyond the pilot phase: In July, Nio celebrated is 80 millionth battery swap in China. The swap is easier than filling up a petrol car or re-charging a typical EV. After pulling up to a swapping station, the driver issues a command via voice or the car's input screen. The car then drives itself into the station, stopping above a retractable metal floor. Robotic arms remove the spent battery and insert a new one. After a quick software and hardware check, the driver is back on the streets -- with the whole swapping process taking only about 3 minutes.  

Faster re-powering is one advantage. Battery-swapping can also slash the price of a car by thousands of dollars, because the vehicle owner doesn't own the battery, notes Financial Times. That also eliminates the potential for a huge expense when a battery is damaged or dies. It also makes sense for people living in densely populated cities, where dedicated charge points may not be plentiful in apartment buildings. 

China may hit a major EV milestone this year, with EV sales topping internal combustion for the first time. Chinese battery maker CATL -- the largest producer in the world -- plans to build 1,000 swap stations for passenger vehicles in China in 2025, targeting 10,000 stations by 2028 with a capacity for 1 million battery swaps a day. China is offering subsidies that cover up to 40% of the cost of building swapping stations. 

Nio's top-of-the-line EP9 will cost you more than a million dollars. It owns the fastest EV lap time at Nurburgring -- 45.9 seconds  (via Nio)

Nio has established a modest battery-swapping beachhead in Europe, with 60 stations concentrated in Norway and Germany. Nio's map also shows stations in Sweden, Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands. Earlier this week, NIO celebrated its 200,000th European battery swap. The company said 74% of European users "now choose the speed and ease of changing batteries." However, the pace at which the company is installing new swap-stations in Europe has stalled, with just 10 stations opening in the past year. In April, EV reported that Nio had significantly cut its investment in European expansion. Managing battery compatibility -- to cover the various batteries used by different EV brands -- appears to be one of the challenges in rolling out new European stations.  

Some in the industry think battery-swapping isn't the best avenue, with a high cost of infrastructure among the concerns. He Xiaopeng, chief executive of EV maker Xpeng, told the Times that his firm considered that alternative process "for five or six years" before discarding it altogether around 2023. “Advancing battery technology is [more important] than developing battery-swapping capabilities. That’s the path we’ve chosen," said He. Across the EV industry, the emphasis has been on flash recharging. Last month, China's National Development and Reform Commission announced it will build 100,000 fast-charging stations over the next two years

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 02:45

CDC Adviser Says Vote On RSV Antibody Was Based On Distorted Data

Zero Hedge -

CDC Adviser Says Vote On RSV Antibody Was Based On Distorted Data

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

An adviser to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) who voted in favor of a respiratory syncytial virus antibody for infants says new data that has come to light indicates that the vote was based on presentations that omitted crucial information.

Dr. Robert Malone speaks during a meeting of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices at the CDC headquarters in Atlanta on June 25, 2025. Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images

It appears that this decision was based on manipulated data analyses,” Dr. Robert Malone, a member of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP), said in a blog post on Aug. 20.

Malone and four other members of the panel in June voted to advise the CDC to recommend the antibody called clesrovimab for infants to try to prevent respiratory syncytial virus. Known as RSV, the virus typically causes mild symptoms such as a cold but can, in some cases, lead to severe problems and, according to the CDC, is a leading cause of infant hospitalization.

Two members voted to advise the CDC not to recommend clesrovimab.

The vote followed presentations by CDC epidemiologist Adam MacNeil and Dr. Matthew Daley, who works closely with the CDC and is a former member of ACIP.

MacNeil said in his presentation that there was no increased risk for seizures in infants in 2024 and early 2025 who received nirsevimab, the only antibody available to infants at the time, based on data from the CDC’s Vaccine Safety Datalink. Daley provided more information, summarizing the study of information from the data system. That included a finding that when splitting infants into two subgroups, aged zero to 37 days and 38 days to just younger than 8 months of age, there was not a statistically significant risk of seizures.

“These are truly remarkable products,” Dr. Cody Meissner, an ACIP member who studied them as part of a committee workgroup, said after the presentations and before the vote. “They are safe and they’re effective.”

Malone said before the vote that “concerning this product, it has been very actively debated internally and I’m satisfied that, given the short period of time we have to address this, that I’m comfortable that we have sufficient information.”

Retsef Levi, one of the no votes, said that he was voting no “based on the fact that I don’t feel this is ready to be administered to all healthy babies” and how he wanted to take a more precautionary approach.

The presentation did not include a pooled analysis or seizures from the combined infant population.

Maryanne Demasi, a journalist and researcher who holds a doctorate in rheumatology, later performed an independent analysis of the seizure data, pooling the two infant populations. She found that infants who received nirsevimab were four times more likely to suffer seizures.

Malone said on Aug. 20 that, based on that new information, as well as other concerns raised about the presentations, such as the lack of inclusion of data from other government-run safety systems, it appears that his vote in favor of the new antibody “based on the information and logic presented” was actually “on manipulated data analyses.”

“That trust in the data presented now appears to have been ill-advised. Going forward, speaking for myself, based on these findings, I will no longer be able to trust that what is presented in CDC summaries to the ACIP is transparent, accurate, and unbiased,” he said.

Levi told The Epoch Times in an email that “we all need to aspire to higher level of transparency and deeper discussions of potential safety signals.” He declined to comment further.

Other members did not return requests for comment or could not be reached.

Merck and AstraZeneca, which manufacture the antibodies, did not reply to requests for comment.

The CDC and Daley did not respond to inquiries.

Dr. Malone was speaking in his personal capacity on his own blog, outside of his responsibilities as an ACIP member,” a spokesperson for the Department of Health and Human Services told The Epoch Times via email. “ACIP remains committed to evidence-based medicine, gold-standard science, and common sense.”

The department, the CDC’s parent agency, is headed by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who appointed Malone and others to the ACIP after removing the existing members.

Dr. Jake Scott, a clinical associate professor of medicine at Stanford University, wrote on X that he did not agree with concerns about the presentations.

Pooling the subgroups of infants should not be done, he said, because most infants in the first group did not receive vaccines at the same time as the antibody, while many in the second group did.

Vaccines are well-established fever triggers, and febrile seizures are documented vaccine side effects. When you pool newborns who got minimal vaccine exposure with 2-month-olds receiving ... vaccines, you’re not measuring nirsevimab effects, you’re measuring vaccine-induced fever effects and misattributing them to the antibody,” Scott said on X.

During the ACIP meeting, Daley said 20 percent of the younger age group received hepatitis B vaccines on the same day as nirsevimab, while 84 percent of the infants in the older group received simultaneous vaccination of various shots.

“So essentially the safety evidence that I presented yesterday, in particular for that group who were 37 days to less than 8 months of age, does represent safety with simultaneous vaccination,” he said.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/22/2025 - 02:00

Discussing OMERS' Mid-Year Results With CEO & CFO/ CSO

Pension Pulse -

Barbara Shecter of the National Post reports OMERS squeezes out 2.2% return in 'challenging' first half:

The Ontario Municipal Employees’ Retirement System generated a 2.2 per cent investment return in the first half of 2025 while facing down a “challenging environment for investors” amid global economic uncertainty and exposure to the United States.

The pension manager’s $3.1-billion gain for the period of Jan. 1 to June 30 pushed its net assets to $140.7 billion. 

More than half of the fund’s assets, 55 per cent, are in the U.S., where the Donald Trump administration has destabilized global trade with a series of punitive tariffs.

“OMERS had a positive start in what was a particularly challenging environment for investors,” chief executive Blake Hutcheson said. “As we manage through the current short-term challenges, in both public and private investing businesses, this team continues to unlock opportunities that deliver both immediate and long-term value.”

OMERS’ first-half results were hurt by a more than five per cent decline by the U.S. dollar despite some hedging. The pain was partially offset by the strengthening of the British pound and the euro, but currency had a negative impact of 1.2 per cent on its first-half results.

“Active decisions to hedge currencies added almost one per cent to returns, protecting portfolio value,” Jonathan Simmons, the fund’s chief financial and strategy officer, said. 

Over the five years that OMERS has reported mid-year investment results, the average annual net return has been 8.7 per cent. Over 10 years, the pension fund has posted an annual net return of 6.9 per cent for a total gain of $70.2 billion.

Infrastructure and public equities drove returns in the first six months of 2025, though six of the portfolio’s seven asset classes, including credit and bonds, contributed positively. Private investments were the weak spot, with private equity posting a negative return of 1.3 per cent. 

“Private investment valuations and transaction activity, particularly in private equities and real estate, continue to be held back by uncertainty in the global marketplace,” Simmons said.

The real estate portfolio, which represents 15 per cent of the portfolio, posted a return of 1.1 per cent in the first six months of the year. OMERS, along with other Canadian pension funds, owns office buildings hammered by the shift to remote and hybrid work during and in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But OMERS said conditions were improving after a series of challenging years for the industry. 

“Despite market uncertainty, results were supported by strong operating fundamentals, particularly in office and hotels,” it said in a release on Thursday.

The pension fund for municipal workers in Ontario was also a landlord for insolvent retailer Hudson Bay Co.

OMERS’ real estate division, Oxford Properties, went to court this month to argue against transferring some of those leases to an “unvetted and unproven” entrepreneur who is attempting to buy some former locations of the storied Canadian retailer. The court filing said the lease transfer could “jeopardize the stability, reputation, and performance of these assets” in which Oxford has invested hundreds of millions of dollars.

“A diminution in the value or stability of Oxford’s real estate portfolio would negatively impact the performance of OMERS’ investments, and, by extension, adversely affect the long-term interests of millions of current and future pension plan beneficiaries,” the Aug. 9 filing said. 

James Bradshaw of the Globe and Mail also reports that governments and institutional investors show alignment on big project financing, OMERS CEO says:

Co-operation among large investors, industry leaders and governments is rapidly increasing as parties discuss how to get major projects off the ground to protect Canada against the threat from tariffs, the CEO of the OMERS pension fund says.

Demand for new infrastructure, energy and defence investment is surging, and so is investors’ willingness to explore big-ticket investments in projects of national importance, Blake Hutcheson, chief executive officer of Ontario Municipal Employees Retirement System, said in an interview.

OMERS earned a 2.2-per-cent return in the first half of 2025, adding $3.1-billion to its assets in spite of a tough start to the year for markets, according to a mid-year update released Thursday. With high volatility in public markets and sluggish dealmaking for public assets, Canadian pension funds are eyeing a growing opportunity to make new investments at home.

“The conversations are at a level that I haven’t seen for at least a decade, where we are exploring some private and public opportunities in earnest,” Mr. Hutcheson said. “This is an all-hands-on-deck moment, in my view, where the governments, the financiers and the pension plans can and should do some meaningful things in Canada.”

Mr. Hutcheson was careful to add a caveat that OMERS has a fiduciary duty to pursue the best returns with the least risk for members, and doesn’t intend to accept weaker investment results. But he said the “dialogue and a willingness to do things” are at a high mark.

“Is it crystal clear, are we ready to jump? The short answer is no,” he said. “Are we optimistic that we can do things in this space? The answer is yes. … And for the sake of the country, we’re hopeful.”

Through the first half of the year, infrastructure investments delivered the strongest gains for OMERS, increasing by 3.6 per cent, while private credit and publicly traded stocks produced solid returns.

The falling value of the U.S. dollar between January and June hampered OMERS’s investment performance, reducing total gains by 1.2 percentage points. But OMERS had hedging positions that it increased late last year, which helped offset some of those currency losses, reducing the potential drag on its overall results by one percentage point.

With widespread uncertainty over tariffs, wars, markets and currencies, “we think it’s a solid start to the year,” Mr. Hutcheson said. “As investors, you really just want to be certain that you know where the goalposts are, and they’ve been moving around a lot lately, so it hasn’t been an easy first half.”

Over 10 years, OMERS has earned an average annual return of 6.9 per cent, adding more than $70-billion to its portfolio. Over the past five years, the average gain has been 8.7 per cent.

OMERS invests on behalf of about 640,000 Ontario public-service workers, including nurses, firefighters and police officers.

Its assets increased to $140.7-billion as of June 30, up from $138.2-billion at the end of 2024.

The OMERS real estate portfolio bounced back with a 1.1-per-cent gain in the first half of 2025, after suffering a loss last year. The performance of office properties has started to rebound from pandemic lows as employers push staff to work from home less frequently.

“We never lost our commitment to high-quality office,” Mr. Hutcheson said. “Even in the worst days during COVID, my view was: Never count that asset class out.”

The lone asset class that produced a half-year loss for OMERS was private equity, down 1.3 per cent. 

Earlier today, OMERS issued a press release stating it earned $3.1 billion in the first six months of 2025:

TORONTO, Aug. 21, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- OMERS generated a net investment return of 2.2%, a gain of $3.1 billion, for the period of January 1 to June 30, 2025. This result brings the cumulative 10-year net investment income figure to $70.2 billion. Net assets at June 30, 2025 totalled $140.7 billion.

“OMERS had a positive start in what was a particularly challenging environment for investors,” said Blake Hutcheson, OMERS President and CEO. “As we manage through the current short-term challenges, in both public and private investing businesses this team continues to unlock opportunities that deliver both immediate and long-term value. Over the five years that we have reported our mid-year investment update, our talented global team and investment strategies have delivered an average annual net return of 8.7%.”

“Six of our seven asset classes delivered positive results in the first half of 2025. Infrastructure and public equities drove returns, supported by credit and bonds,” said Jonathan Simmons, OMERS Chief Financial and Strategy Officer. “Currency had an overall negative 1.2% impact on our results, driven by a significant decline in the U.S. dollar, and partially offset by strengthening of the British pound sterling and euro. Active decisions to hedge currencies added almost 1% to returns, protecting portfolio value. Private investment valuations and transaction activity, particularly in private equities and real estate, continue to be held back by uncertainty in the global marketplace.”

“While we expect continued market instability for the remainder of 2025, we believe our diversification in quality assets positions us well to see through this cycle, with ample liquidity to pursue opportunities that meet our objective of paying pensions for generations to come,” said Mr. Hutcheson. “We proudly serve 640,000 Ontarians and we work every day to build lasting value that will serve them throughout their retirement.”

About OMERS
OMERS is a jointly sponsored, defined benefit pension plan, with more than 1,000 participating employers ranging from large cities to local agencies, and 640,000 active, deferred and retired members. Our members include union and non-union employees of municipalities, school boards, local boards, transit systems, electrical utilities, emergency services and children’s aid societies across Ontario. OMERS teams work in Toronto, London, New York, Amsterdam, Luxembourg, Singapore, Sydney and other major cities across North America and Europe – serving members and employers, and originating and managing a diversified portfolio of high-quality investments in government bonds, public and private credit, public and private equities, infrastructure and real estate.

Media Contact
Don Peat
Director, Media Relations
1 416.417.7385
dpeat@omers.com

Net Assets
$ Billions

Net Assets

Net Return History
to June 30, 2025

6-month
(January 1, 2025 – June 30, 2025)

2.2%, a gain of $3.1 billion   10-year
(July 1, 2015 – June 30, 2025)

6.9%, a gain of $70.2 billion   

Diversified by Asset Class and Geography
OMERS invests in high-quality assets that are well-diversified by geography and asset type.

Asset Diversification
As at June 30, 2025

Asset Diversification

Geographic Diversification
As at June 30, 2025

Geographic Diversification

Asset Class Investment Performance

Net Returns   Six months ended 
June 30, 2025 Government Bonds 2.1 %Public Credit 1.6 %Private Credit 2.7 %Public Equities 2.4 %Private Equities (1.3 %)Infrastructure 3.6 %Real Estate   1.1 %Total Plan 2.2 %   

Investment Performance Highlights
Over the six months ended June 30, 2025:

  • The more than 5% decline in the U.S. dollar in the first half of the year meaningfully detracted from our returns across asset classes, particularly in public and private equity. Our active decisions to hedge our currency exposure added almost 1% to the portfolio, including an approximate 30-basis point lift from our increase to U.S. dollar hedges at the end of 2024. This currency management strategy, combined with our diversification in the British pound sterling and euro, mitigated the otherwise negative impact on the portfolio.
  • Our strategic focus to deploy into fixed income assets continued to positively contribute to our returns. Government bonds, public and private credit each delivered positive performance primarily due to interest income and a decline in bond yields.
  • Public equities delivered positive performance from core large-cap holdings in financials, communications services and information technology sectors.
  • Private equities were held back as investor confidence remains challenged and markets continue to exhibit very low levels of activity. As a result, valuations continue to be impacted by slow earnings growth and headwinds within certain industry sectors.
  • Infrastructure continues to deliver steady results, with most assets performing in line with expectations.
  • Real estate delivered a positive return after a series of challenging years for the industry. Despite market uncertainty, results were supported by strong operating fundamentals, particularly in office and hotels.

Liquidity
We continue to maintain ample liquidity, with $17.4 billion in liquid assets to pay pension benefits, fund investment opportunities, satisfy potential collateral demands related to our use of derivatives, and to fund expenses.

Long-Term Issuer Credit Ratings

Long-term issuer credit ratings

This Investment Update presents certain non-GAAP measures. These measures are calculated on the same basis as those calculated and presented in our 2024 Annual Report. This Investment Update and the Condensed Interim Consolidated Financial Statements (the “Interim Financial Statements”) are unaudited. OMERS Administration Corporation’s financial performance set out in this Investment Update is only for the period ended June 30, 2025, unless otherwise indicated. Past performance may not indicate future performance because a broad range of uncertainties (including without limitation those related to interest rates and inflation) could have an impact on the performance of various asset classes. The financial information included in this Investment Update should be read in conjunction with the Interim Financial Statements.

Portfolio update
We continue to invest in assets that build strong futures for communities and members alike.
Below is a selection of activities undertaken since January 1, 2025.

  • We acquired full ownership of a high-quality office portfolio in Western Canada that includes seven office properties in Calgary’s and Vancouver's central business districts, totalling 4 million square feet. This portfolio is 95% occupied.
  • We broke ground on 70 Hudson Yards, the first 1 million plus square foot, ground-up office development in New York City in over five years.
  • We sold a 9.995% stake in Transgrid, the largest electricity transmission network in Australia, to Australian sovereign wealth fund, Future Fund. As part of this transaction, OMERS will manage that interest on their behalf in addition to our own 9.995% stake. 
  • We announced a transformative co-investment of over $200 million to retrofit the existing office buildings at Canada Square in midtown Toronto. The redevelopment will deliver 680,000 square feet of highly functional and modernized office space.
  • Our shopping mall investments were recognized as national and regional market leaders in sales performance by the International Council of Shopping Centers. Yorkdale continues to dominate as Canada’s top-performing shopping centre for the second year running with ~$2,300 in sales per square foot. Square One Shopping Centre and Scarborough Town Centre also increased their sales per square foot.
  • We officially opened the doors to the $1.3 billion Parkline Place, celebrating the opening of this new commercial office and retail destination in Sydney, Australia co-owned by Oxford Properties, and which includes the first new office tower in Sydney’s Midtown in almost a decade. 
  • We announced a joint partnership with AustralianSuper that aims to build a significant industrial and logistics venture across Europe. As part of this joint venture, we announced the acquisition of Broadheath Network Centre in Greater Manchester.
  • OMERS Finance Trust (OFT) successfully closed two significant note offerings, a EUR 1 billion, 10-year note and a USD 1 billion, 5-year note. This marks OFT’s third EUR and ninth USD offering.

Subsequent to the end of June:

  • We broke ground on the first major purpose-built housing project in Scarborough in over a generation on the west side of Oxford’s Scarborough Town Centre shopping mall. The development will consist of three residential towers of 1300 units with the aim of delivering critically needed housing in a historically undersupplied area for people at a variety of different price points, including a 21% allocation for affordable housing. 

Alright, this afternoon I had a chance to discuss OMERS' mid-year results with CEO Blake Hutcheson and CFO & CSO Jonathan Simmons.

I want to begin by thanking them both for taking the time to talk to me and also thank Don Peat for setting up the Teams meeting and sending me the relevant documents.

As always, these are mid-year results, in line with what OTPP and CDPQ posted but OMERS has a different asset mix, more tilted to private markets (see asset mix above).

I also want to correct something from last week when I covered CPP Investments' quarterly results,  OMERS and La Caisse do provide asset class performance for mid-year, OTPP does not.

Alright, Blake began by giving me the overview:

The results are self-explanatory. My main message is it's a very volatile world with respect to geopolitics, with respect to tariff conversations, with respect to currency fluctuations, with respect to elections including in this country.

In the context of all that, we feel our results are a solid start to the year, so we go forward from here with strength but it has been a very difficult investment environment.

You know as well as anybody, one thing you want as an investor is a high degree of certainty, where are the goalposts. This has been a period where there's anything but certainty as the mood of the day can swing depending on one utterance or another. 

The good thing is we have a long view and a diversified portfolio and we really try to separate the headlines form the underlying economic fundamentals and facts. That's our best defence, focus on things we can control: high quality assets, lots of diversification, put our energy into our greatness as opposed to the noise of the day. That's going to continue to be our mantra.

You know me, I started in 2020 so I like to keep track of the 5-year return and the 5-year return since my first month or two has been 8.7% which is a compelling story.

It's been an active semester, diversification is helping.

What you might want to see is the currency hurt us so far this year, it's helped us other years, so you can't have blessings every year. It's cost us 1.2% but we are really proud of our hedging strategy because they protected an additional 100 basis points or thereabouts because it could have been a lot worse if they weren't active. And we took all our hedges off for a number of years after 2020, we were thoughtful and redeployed. It was an overt strategy, it largely paid off.

When we look at our plan, our expectations for the year, our credit book, our equities book, our infrastructure are maybe a little bit behind in some cases but on track to meet our budgets. 

Our other privates are slower. Real estate, the good news is we are in the black now, that's starting to turn the corner. Our mutual friend Dan Fournier has made a major difference in the culture and consideration we've put in that business. 

And our difficult one like many others is our private equity portfolio. We have a new head of private equity, we just finalized the strategy yesterday with our Board as to where that business will go in the future, maybe in the fall we'll take some time to share it with you. We got our arms around where we are strong, where we are weak, where we have to deploy more, where we have to deploy less. That one is a work in progress and we don't see selling or buying, we don't see a lot of activity that gives us data points -- negative or positive -- in the private equity space because again, with all the uncertainty out there, people aren't sellers at prices where we can buy. That business has been our weakest link this half.

I guess the other thing is we remain committed to Canada. The flash numbers say we are down in Canada to 16%, our assets are at about 21% which is where we started the year and it's roughly 55% in the US. The 16% takes into account primarily cash accounts because we used to carry more Canadian cash and we deployed a lot, particularly in real estate the first half. 

But our 21% is constant and we are going to continue to invest heavily in the United States, pretty commensurate with our current book, but we want to do more in this country. We feel this is an all hands on deck moment in Canada, we are seeing really positive and hopeful signs come out of the federal government at this point, more so than we've seen in a decade where government decision makers both federally and provincially in most of the Canadian markets we invest across Canada, there's a harmony that didn't exist, there is a sense of mutual purpose that didn't exist, and I think Canadians are coming together. 

We are hopeful we can do more, particularly in infrastructure and real estate in Canada to be part of the solution in this all hands on deck moment for our country.  

I don't know exactly what that means in terms of allocations -- you know the business well -- we can't give somebody a home court discount, we are a fiduciary, we have to make sure it hits our risk-adjusted expectations and return. It's not that we can -- however big our heart is -- gift anybody when we are responsible for 640,000 people but it does mean we are underwriting more than we have in the past, we are having bigger and more important conversations with various levels of governments than what we had in the last decade.

We want to do more in Canada, we hope to do more in Canada and we want to be part of the go forward success and future of this country.

That's a great overview which covers all the main points.

On infrastructure which had another solid half, Blake added this:

We have 30 assets, it's a broad portfolio, it's a highly concession run asset class for us. With big businesses like Bruce Power, it's been a consistent high single digit asset class for us year in and year out and this year is no exception. It's really the broad shoulders and the consistency of that wide portfolio that continues to get us in the 7-8-9% range and it has less volatility than our other asset classes. You don't see the exit multiples change a lot for those businesses, they stay pretty constant. So it's a steady Eddy business for us, no surprises.

Indeed, the yield is always around 8% or more a year for OMERS and others.

In private equity, I noted that some critics of OMERS purely direct strategy have privately told me that asset class needed to be revamped there but I also note that all pension funds are experiencing a tough slug in PE, not just OMERS, even those that do more fund investments.

Blake responded:

Of our privates, the real estate business not withstanding recent years because it's been difficult, and our infrastructure business  have been really steady long-term producers for us with great teams. And our private equity business has done well for us too and I don't want to diminish the contribution it's made for us in any way.

In the last few years, we have had to rethink our strategy because it's hard to compete with the best players in the world when we are relatively small.  

So, from a buyout perspective, we retreated from direct investing in Europe, we are very much focused on North America. As we cycle out of those assets in Europe, we will use that capital to redeploy into more fund type investments where bigger players with bigger teams can get into assets we couldn't get to.

I don't want to be critical. We have done a detailed assessment, we are at a point and time where we are changing our focus and strategy. We will consistently and deeply invest in Canada and the United States but less so in Europe and the available capital will go to funds.

With our new head of private equity (Alexander Fraser), he just presented the new strategy this week, there will be lots of nuanced changes to that portfolio to right size it and position it well for the future. That is underway, when we are ready, we will be happy to share with you those prospects.

But we have a really good team, we have a really good new leader and I'm actually energized to see their direction of travel. This was a difficult half not just for us but for most people in the marketplace and sometimes when you get those difficult moments, it gives you the motivation to make the changes you need to make and we are making them.   

I noted rates are higher for longer, dampening returns in private equity and real estate and the other thing that worries me is if there will be more inflation in the US, wage inflation can lead to more margin compression in private and publicly listed businesses.

I also noted there was a big Bloomberg article yesterday on how pension funds missed the big tech rally, but pension funds are not there to beat the S&P 500 every year, so while there may be some pressure in privates over the short run, over the long term, they offer more stability and yet people remain focused on the short term.

I asked Blake if they've been feeling this pressure to take risks where they shouldn't be taking risk to deliver higher returns and he responded:

Jonathan and I feel incredibly supported by our board. I can honestly say while short-term results are interesting and certainly people watch our annual results with vigour, we are a long term investor. I don't feel any compulsion to beef up the shorter term at the expense of the longer term.

We all have to be nimble right now. It's an ever changing world. We need to remain on our toes. We need to be assessing all of the inputs from an economic, political and fundamental perspective. You can never be complacent and continue to win in the markets but I don't feel any compulsion to think short term because of the short term pressures, never have, it's not the nature of our board, it's not the nature of the way we approach the business.

And great assets, great management teams, great fundamentals, not in every cycle but they tend to see through cycles, when you compromise asset quality, when you compromise people quality, when you compromise businesses to get some short term yield, it doesn't end so well. 

That's the discipline and that the discipline that has enabled us to deliver our 8.7% return in the last five years.

But the private equity component of our business, this isn't something we picked up this year and decided we needed to have a new direction, this has been a 2-3 year focus and it's going to require a few more years to get it to a place where we expect it to be as part of our asset allocation.

Since Blake is an expert in real estate (he was formerly the head of Oxford Properties prior to becoming CEO of OMERS), I asked him if he's seeing signs of a comeback in offices since more companies are demanding back to the office from their workers.

He responded:

I think you've heard me say this consistently even during Covid, people need to live somewhere, people need to work somewhere.

Even in Covid, when everyone was saying the office is going the way of the dodo bird, we were building office buildings at Oxford. 

The truth is high quality AA, AAA office buildings will continue to do extremely well and didn't even break during Covid.

Secondary and tertiary assets, many of them are in deep trouble because there is a migration to quality.  

Looking at office, our portfolio is best of class in every market we are in around the world. In Toronto, we are 95% leased, across Canada, we are practically 95% leased. We just invested by buying out CPP Investments in seven big office buildings in Canada which put sour conviction where our wallet is.

We just announced a new building we are building in Hudson Yards, 70 Hudson Yards in New York, a large consulting firm is taking 800,000 square feet of 1.4 million, and that will be the first new office building in five years in Manhattan. I'm totally confident it's going to do extremely well.

So in our 62-year history at Oxford but even in the last 10 or 12, when people say thou shouldn't touch and something is going in the wrong direction, we look at the history, high quality great assets, if they're not playing into the fundamentals, we will. 

And I like our odds. We finished a building in Vancouver called The Stack, it's ahead of plan from a lease perspective. 70 Hudson Yards will be great. We are just finishing a new building in Sidney, it's going to take a while but it's going to do great. 

So, a great office is a great office, we like the trends, we never felt that with high quality assets we were in jeopardy and when everybody else said don't build more, we built more

I asked Blake if Logistics and Multi-family continue to be the sectors driving the returns at Oxford and he replied: 

Logistics interesting enough, uncertainty around supply chains, we are not seeing big appetite, a lot of people are sitting on their hands because why take up more space until they see how this game of chess plays out.   

For a while the direction of travel for rates for an industrial building was only one way, it was higher growth than any other sector, that slowed relative to other sectors but we have a great portfolio that's functioning well.  

And multi-family, because it's typically a 97% leased business, you have the ability to finance several. You won't really see an improvement until the cost of funds comes down. Because you have a high level of debt, that has a significant impact on yield and values. It will be better in the next 2-3 years as the Fed rate comes down. Right now, it's an ok sector but until the cost of money comes down, it's not going to be what we hoped.

I shifted my attention to Private Credit and asked Jonathan Simmons what he sees there. 

Jonathan replied:

The private credit strategy, if I look back at the last few years, and we already talked about infrastructure and its contribution, private credit has to be the other one. Very strong returns from that asset class, we've been moving capital into it consistently. It's wheels on a treadmill with private credit because most of these are 5-year deals so the team is very busy with the underwriting. We are so pleased with the risk profile we've seen. A year ago, people asked me a lot of questions about credit quality, bu tit's holding up, the discipline is strong, the returns are very good for our pension plan so it's an asset class to like.

I ended by asking Jonathan and Blake what's keeping them up at night, what are they worried about the most in this uncertain environment.

Jonathan chimed in first: 

I crave for stability. It makes it much easier for decision makers to plan for the future, whether that be taking up more space in one of our buildings, or contracting one of our private equity businesses or getting a new project off the ground that we can invest in from an infrastructure perspective. When that stability comes back to the world, investors will have a much more enjoyable time. And it's been very choppy so that's what I look forward to the most.

Blake then added this:

I've always said, I don't need a competitive advantage, I need a level playing field and please don't break my jaw. And if I can invest in those environments, history has proven OMERS can do that, and my career suggests that's an environment I can excel in.

Because we share more with you than anyone, right now what keeps me up at night is our best friend, our biggest trading partner, our most important strategic alliance, the United States of America, we have deep friendships on both sides of the border. America needs Canada, Canada needs America and we are at a moment in history where that frayed relationship is as sad as it is destructive. 

I think it can be fixed, I think it's going to require deep personal investments by our leaders spending time with their leaders because bees stick to honey. 

It was very difficult to do that until the new government was elected, I think they have a really good shot at it and I think it's really important.  

I don't know if it can be normalized but once we get the terms of engagement finalized, including USMCA over the finish line -- which by the way 93% of the trade of this country is captured by USMCA -- once we get over the finish line, and we remind each other that it's critical for all three parties in that document, it's going to be a difficult time emotionally and financially and economically.

That's what I worry about, how we can fix that relationship or at least improve it, how we get USMCA behind us and how we can work as a unified trading block in in North America to fortify ourselves against whoever the foe may be and make all three nations better because we are better together.  

So those are the things I think about, I think it's an important time in history, and as I said we at OMERS want to be part of the solution by investing in this country if we can a little more and by helping build cross border relations for the best interest of our members and best interests of Canada.

OMERS is doing its part to help all levels of governments in Canada succeed.

Once again, I thank Blake and Jonathan for another great discussion, I really appreciate their time and insights. 

Below, watch Bake Hutcheson at the Canadian Club Toronto discussing his views on leading and investing during these challenging times (April 16, 2025).

Last but not least. I want to sincerely wish Jonathan's daughter Jessica who is fighting cancer for a second time a speedy and full recovery (read Jonathan's post here). 

We are all rooting for you Jessica, stay positive and if you need a little inspiration, watch Isabella Strahan's documentary, Life Interrupted, I highly recommend you do so. 

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