Got Beef? 12-Year Cycle Signals "Cyclical Low"

The U.S. beef industry operates on 12-year herd cycles, with the last herd low in 2014 and the beef packer margin trough in 2015. The current herd liquidation began in 2019, and as of the start of 2025, the nation's cattle herd stands at 86.7 million, the lowest level since the 1950s.

Herd rebuilding trends may begin soon, according to Goldman analysts Leah Jordan and Eli Thompson, who cited support from high calf prices and low feed costs, though herds appear tight for the foreseeable future. They expect this dynamic to keep beef packer margins depressed due to reduced slaughter volumes and elevated live cattle prices.

Beef cycles typically last about twelve years on average, looking at trough-to-trough in the cattle herd. The prior trough in the herd occurred in 2014, while the prior trough in beef packer margins occurred in 2015. The current herd liquidation cycle began in 2019, with the herd tracking at ~86.7mm as of January 1, 2025, the lowest level since the 1950s. Herd rebuilding may already be underway, or is likely soon, noting supportive industry conditions (high calf prices and low feed costs), which should further constrain supply in the near-term, partially offset by record weights for cattle on feed.

As a result, we expect beef packer margins to remain depressed in the near-term due to lower slaughter volumes and high live cattle prices. That said, herd retention will set up the industry better for the longer term, and effectively starts the clock for more normalized margins in about two years given the breeding timeline, with better visibility likely in a few quarters.

TSN's beef operating margins track with industry packer margins, while its stock has a moderate correlation as well, noting the stock started to work in advance of the beef-driven earnings recovery in 2016. Additionally, the relationship has already started to decouple in the current cycle, owing to the strength of its diversified business mix across proteins (including prepared foods with greater margin stability).

Analysts posed the question: "When will the beef cycle turn?" — one we've been asking at ZeroHedge, too.

Here's a visual breakdown of the beef industry's turning points, as charted by the analysts:

"We also believe the cyclical low in beef profitability is creating an attractive entry point for patient investors in Buy-rated TSN," the analysts noted. 

During Tyson Foods' earnings call in early May, Brady Stewart—head of Tyson's beef and pork supply chains—offered insights into what may be the emerging bottom in U.S. cattle supplies, which have fallen to their lowest levels in over 70 years. His comments came in response to a question from one Wall Street analyst.

Stewart explained that while cattle supply remains down year-over-year, record-high animal weights are helping to offset the decline in volume. He added that the U.S. cattle industry is likely at or near the bottom of its inventory cycle, with herd levels now at a 73-year low.

At the start of the year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's annual Cattle Inventory report revealed that the nation's cattle supply had fallen to a 73-year low, totaling about 86.7 million head.

At the supermarket, USDA data from the end of May showed the average price for a pound of ground beef reached yet another record high of nearly $6 a pound. 

While analysts expect a cyclical low in the beef cycle, that doesn't mean the industry is out of the woods just yet—tight supplies and elevated prices are likely to persist for years. Now is the time for consumers to secure local supply chains, even if that means getting to know the rancher down the road.

The rise of the 'MAHA' movement is accelerating this shift, as more Americans turn to clean, locally raised beef and reject products from globalist-owned food conglomerates. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 07:45

It appears some bad times are coming for the United States. We are attacking the Labor that will do the jobs legal US Citizens will not do for the money paid to illegals and legal immigrants. “Ghost Farms of Texas: Why Hundreds of Farmworkers Suddenly Vanished, Leaving Crops to Rot” This sudden, unexplained exodus has […]

The post Why Hundreds of Farmworkers Suddenly Vanished, Leaving Crops to Rot appeared first on Angry Bear.

Why This Matters The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is the nation’s only geologic repository for disposing of certain nuclear waste from defense-related activities, such as contaminated soil. The Department of Energy (DOE) expects the site to operate until the 2080s. However, much of the infrastructure is in degraded condition, increasing risks of failure and impacting WIPP’s waste disposal mission. GAO Key Takeaways DOE commissioned a survey in 2016 that identified over $37 million in deferred maintenance costs for WIPP’s site infrastructure—including buildings, electrical substations, hoists, and other assets. Some infrastructure has been refurbished or replaced since then. However, our analysis shows 29 of 56 assets that are essential to the mission were in substandard or inadequate condition in 2023 (the most recent data at the time of our review). WIPP’s contractor handles daily maintenance, refurbishment, and replacement of infrastructure. The contractor also maintains data about the condition and deficiencies of site infrastructure. DOE uses the data to make decisions about assets. DOE has repeatedly identified issues with the data, including unreliable values, but has not ensured that the contractor develops timelines to correct those issues. DOE evaluates the contractor’s performance annually and approves long-term plans for infrastructure management. However, DOE has not consistently incentivized the contractor to develop and execute long-term plans. Accurate data and clear long-term management plans would help DOE plan, prioritize, and fund critical maintenance for WIPP’s infrastructure and reduce costly emergency refurbishment of assets critical to nuclear waste disposal. The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in Carlsbad, New Mexico How GAO Did This Study We visited WIPP in 2024. We analyzed data and documents and interviewed officials from DOE and from the contractor. We compared this information against DOE’s requirements for data maintenance and reporting and for contractor oversight.

What GAO Found During the COVID-19 public health emergency, Congress provided temporary additional federal funding to states to keep Medicaid and most Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) enrollees continuously enrolled. In April 2023, states began resuming full eligibility redeterminations for the millions of enrollees who had been continuously enrolled, including disenrolling those no longer eligible or who did not submit all required information—a process known as “unwinding.” States are to complete unwinding redeterminations by the end of 2025. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) found that, of the 89 million completed redeterminations by states, about 27 million individuals were disenrolled during the first year and a half of unwinding. Enrollment nationwide was around 79 million as of October 2024, about 10 percent higher than prior to the pandemic. CMS also found significant variation across states in the percentage of individuals disenrolled during unwinding, with a number of factors potentially contributing to those differences. Percentage of Completed Redeterminations That Resulted in Disenrollments, by State, March 2023-September 2024 Note: For more details, see fig. 4 in GAO-25-107413. CMS and selected states identified certain populations that may have been disenrolled more frequently than others. For example, CMS and two states found that certain young adults were the most likely to be disenrolled when compared to other groups. CMS officials said young adults could have become ineligible because they aged out of child-specific eligibility groups, which generally allow for higher income than eligibility groups for adults who are under the age of 65 and who do not have a disability. Why GAO Did This Study Continuous enrollment during the COVID-19 public health emergency, which largely paused disenrollments, contributed to Medicaid and CHIP growing from 71 million enrollees in February 2020 to 94 million enrollees in March 2023—an increase of more than 30 percent. During unwinding, some people were expected to be disenrolled either because they were no longer eligible or because of procedural reasons, such as not returning information necessary to determine their eligibility. States are required to report data on redetermination outcomes during unwinding to CMS. CMS has used the data to monitor, for example, how many people were disenrolled or had their coverage renewed. The CARES Act includes a provision for GAO to report on the federal response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This report describes (1) the results of CMS's analyses of unwinding outcomes, and (2) the extent to which selected states identified differences in unwinding outcomes across population characteristics. GAO reviewed CMS analyses, such as analyses of state-reported data on eligibility redeterminations scheduled for completion from March 2023 through June 2024, some of which were completed through September 2024. GAO also interviewed CMS officials. GAO also reviewed information from five states—Arizona, Maryland, Montana, New York, and Wisconsin—selected to capture a mix of program size and geographic diversity. For more information, contact Michelle B. Rosenberg at RosenbergM@gao.gov.

“The Current Iran War will Likely end soon, but the Arms Race will Heat Up” Juan Cole, Ann Arbor (Informed Comment). The Al Jazeera bureau chief in Tehran, Abdul Qader Fayez, reports from “informed sources” in Tehran that Iran’s clerical Leader, Ali Khamenei, and his National Security Council have still not decided how to respond to the […]

The post “The Current Iran War will Likely end soon, but the Arms Race will Heat Up” appeared first on Angry Bear.

Beyond Beyond Meat: Lab Grown Meat Has Now Arrived For Sale In 3 Countries

Is this what's beyond Beyond Meat?

Australia just gave lab-grown meat the official thumbs-up, approving the sale of cultivated Japanese quail and joining the elite global club of… three. That’s right—only Singapore, the U.S., and now Australia are on board with selling meat that’s never had feathers, feet, or a heartbeat, Bloomberg wrote last week. 

Sydney-based startup Vow is behind the venture and says it’ll start serving up foie gras, parfait, and other fancy dishes made from quail cells in select restaurants within weeks. This follows a long-overdue tweak to the country's food standards code, years in the making.

The science behind it? Cultivating animal cells in vats instead of raising entire animals, allegedly to save the planet and spare some lives. Noble goals, sure. But the cultivated meat industry hasn’t exactly been thriving. Funding is drying up, scaling remains a headache, and the political pushback—especially in the U.S.—has turned into a sideshow.

“While other markets face regulatory uncertainty, Australia is embracing innovation and consumers are ready to try something new and delicious,” Vow CEO George Peppou said, clearly feeling good about being the new kid on the bioreactor block.

Vow’s lab-grown quail will show up under its Forged brand at places like NEL in Sydney and Bottarga in Melbourne. Meanwhile, in Singapore, where Vow already operates, the company claims 200% month-over-month growth. Though when your starting point is a couple of upscale restaurant menus, that math isn’t exactly hard to beat.

Production is still a drop in the bucket compared to the real meat market, but Vow promises to hit 10.8 tons a month by year’s end. The company’s managed to raise more than $70 million from investors including Blackbird, Square Peg, and Peakbridge—suggesting at least some people are betting that cell-cultured quail is more than a novelty.

Still, whether diners will bite—or keep biting once the novelty wears off—remains the real question. It’s one thing to get approval; it’s another to convince people their $45 foie gras came from a vat and not a bird, and that’s a good thing.

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 04:15

Trump At NATO Summit To Push 'Historic' 5% Spending Goal Amid Global Conflicts

Authored by Emel Akan via The Epoch Times,

President Donald Trump will arrive in The Hague, Netherlands, today June 24 for a critical NATO summit, aiming to secure unprecedented defense spending commitments from allies, an issue he has championed for years.

This year’s summit is poised to set a bold new defense spending target of 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) for each member country, more than doubling the current 2 percent benchmark.

Trump’s whirlwind 24-hour visit to the Netherlands comes amid a geopolitical storm in the Middle East as peace (well, a ceasefire allegedly) almost breaks out between Iran and Israel conflict (following Iran's 'theatric' attack on US bases after US airstrikes over the weekend on three Iranian nuclear facilities, which were intended to halt Tehran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons).

Because of the mounting tensions in the Middle East, the U.S. president is keeping things short at NATO, much like his brief Group of Seven (G7) summit appearance in Canada a week earlier.

Despite the shortened agenda, he is expected to tackle several other pressing issues, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, Russia sanctions, and the future of the U.S. military posture in Europe.

Additionally, all eyes will be on Trump’s interactions with French President Emmanuel Macron—whom he recently criticized over Iran comments—and with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who remains unsettled by Trump’s interest in acquiring Greenland.

Here is what to expect at this year’s summit:

New Defense Spending Target

The upcoming summit in The Hague will focus primarily on establishing a new defense spending target for member countries.

Trump has long been critical of NATO countries for not paying their fair share for the alliance. Since returning to the White House in January, he has intensified pressure on member states to meet higher defense spending targets.

To address Trump’s concerns, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has proposed increasing the target for member countries from the current minimum of 2 percent of GDP to 5 percent annually.

His two-tiered proposal calls for allies to allocate 3.5 percent of GDP to core defense spending and an additional 1.5 percent to infrastructure and industrial capacity.

A growing number of European NATO members, including Germany, have backed this new proposal.

This year’s summit would likely formalize the new spending target, with debates centering on the timeline and implementation.

“The president intends to secure a historic 5 percent defense spending pledge from NATO allies, which will strengthen the alliance’s combined military capabilities and ensure greater stability in Europe and the world,” a senior U.S. official told reporters during a call last week.

Trump will push allies at the upcoming summit to boost industrial capacities to create “supply chains capable of producing the critical minerals, infrastructure, weapons, and other products necessary for the security of America and her allies,” the official said.

The 2 percent GDP defense spending goal, set in 2014 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, is met by 23 of NATO’s 32 members, according to the estimates.

The new 5 percent target reflects a growing consensus that Europe must take greater responsibility for its security.

“Europeans have understood that they must shoulder primary responsibility for their own security and defense in the future,” James Goldgeier and Sophie Roehse, foreign policy experts at the Brookings Institution, wrote in a recent report.

“This recognition will only strengthen NATO and should have occurred long ago.”

The timeline for achieving the 5 percent target remains contentious. While some NATO allies propose a 2035 target, several countries, driven by regional security threats, advocate for an earlier target date.

“Aside from the Baltics, who are pushing hard for 2030, most allies have been lobbying for a later date,” said Sara Moller, associate teaching professor in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University.

“But the Trump team clearly wants to light a fire and move things along faster.”

Spain Resists NATO Spending Target

NATO officials have been eager to secure consensus on a new spending commitment ahead of the summit.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced last week that his country would not commit to the proposed 5 percent defense spending target.

And on June 21, Sánchez said he had reached a deal with NATO to be excluded from the 5 percent defense spending target.

Spain allocated nearly 1.3 percent of its GDP to defense in 2024, making it the alliance’s lowest spender.

US Force Posture in Europe

The Trump administration has reaffirmed its commitment to defending NATO allies in Europe, as U.S. Permanent Representative to NATO Matthew Whitaker emphasized at a security conference in Estonia in May.

The recent nomination of U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich as NATO’s supreme allied commander Europe further signals continued U.S. support for nuclear deterrence in the region, according to the Brookings Institution experts.

At the same time, many expect a reduction in the U.S. military posture in Europe this summer.

A growing view among conservatives favors a smaller U.S. footprint in Europe and a strategic shift of forces and equipment toward the Indo-Pacific to counter China.

“Advocates of this idea view China as the greatest strategic threat to U.S. national security and contend that Europeans should assume primary responsibility for deterring Russia,” Goldgeier and Roehse wrote.

U.S. officials, including Whitaker, have hinted at a review of the U.S. force posture, with potential troop reductions possibly announced after the NATO summit.

“That looming announcement will be front and center,” Moller said. “Everyone will be watching closely for any signals about what, exactly, the Pentagon plans to pull from the European theater.”

Denmark and Greenland

Trump’s interaction with Frederiksen will be critical at this week’s summit, given her unease over Trump’s interest in taking over Greenland.

Trump may raise U.S. concerns about Greenland’s potential independence and the increasing influence of Russia and China in the Arctic.

For the past eight years, both the Trump and Biden administrations have expressed worries about Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory, moving toward independence.

Despite Denmark’s status as a close NATO ally, the United States fears that Copenhagen’s influence over Greenland could wane if independence gains traction.

Rising Arctic activity, driven by warming trends, is intensifying competition and tensions.

A 2008 U.S. Geological Survey report estimates that the Arctic holds 90 billion barrels of oil and 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas—about 22 percent of the world’s undiscovered conventional oil and gas reserves.

The region also contains trillions of dollars in minerals, including silver, copper, gold, nickel, iron ore, and rare earth elements.

The Chinese regime in recent years has been ambitiously developing its commercial and military capabilities in the Arctic.

In addition, Russian and Chinese warships are operating together more frequently in the region.

“I think the interaction between Mette Frederiksen, the Danish prime minister, and Donald Trump is something to watch for,” said Max Bergmann, director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“Mette Frederiksen has not yet been to Washington, and there’s been a lot of strain in the bilateral relationship, and that is quite concerning because Denmark has been one of the most pro-American allies within NATO and within the European Union.”

Russia Sanctions

European allies are pressing Trump to follow through on his earlier threats to impose tough new sanctions on Russia because of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

In recent months, Trump had signaled a willingness to take a harder line against the Kremlin. But at the G7 summit, he appeared to backtrack, stating that “sanctions cost ... a lot of money.”

He also criticized G7 leaders for expelling Russia in 2014 from the group, originally called the G8.

“This was a big mistake,“ Trump told Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney during the G7 summit. ”You wouldn’t have that war. You have your enemy at the table.”

He also canceled a planned meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as he had to cut his trip short to focus on Iran.

Zelenskyy is expected to attend a state dinner in The Hague. And it is still unclear whether Trump will meet the Ukrainian president on the sidelines.

“I don’t think we’ll see any big announcements on Ukraine,” Moller said.

“The president’s priority remains to end the war by getting Moscow and Kyiv talking.

“Everything Washington is willing to put forward on Ukraine right now flows from that single objective, which means the administration isn’t prepared to offer more at this stage.”

Tyler Durden Tue, 06/24/2025 - 02:00